Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Now bring on the accusations, because they might be fair. Wrong, but fair.

Originally Posted by Zil

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?

If it ends with me not getting lynched, sure.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If it ends with me not getting lynched, sure.

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. )

[Thinlómien]

Not exhibiting visible symptoms

Legate - he gives me a bad vibe every now and then, but he's overall looked quite innocent and his role in the Huine lynch makes me 90% certain he's innocent. I think he's too nice to bus a packmate that brutally.

Pitchwife - very innocent vote placement yesterDay, has given me an increasingly innocent vibe as the game has gone on. Not very worried about him at the moment.


Bear watching

Lottie - I can't shake the shady vibe I have from her, but her Huine vote looks very innocent. I repeat: if she was merely aiming for self preservation, she could have picked Mac over Huine, and Mac is either innocent or a more heavily suspected wolf than Huine was.

Kath - seriously flying under my radar. Can't give her a free pass on merely "not having done anything suspicious" anymore.

Lhuna - I like her cheerful tone and the way she seems to be going against the flow quite often, but I don't have any actual reasons to consider her innocent. I keep lowkey suspecting her mostly because she could easily be packmates with my other suspects or even with Huine.

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Rune - seriously under my radar. I used to lean innocent on him, but now I don't think I have enough grounds to think so. YesterDay's vote doesn't say much.


Bear even more watching (trying to differentiate here because I realised I put like 80% of the village in the same category)

Greenie - my brain is lowkey fixated on the idea that she's a wolf slipping under my radar. I don't have any great reasons to think so, and I do agree with a lot of her points and suspicions. (Well, I always do. After all, given that she's my sister so is it weird if our brains work similarly? ) That being said, it's however very interesting to me where she and I disagree, and I still think it lowkey dodgy how she avoided the whole Huinescussion yesterDay and instead kept discussing Mac and Brinn.

Lalaith - possibly the least innocent looking Huine voter - she's callously sacrificed packmates before, and associating herself with the ranger was a pretty safe move in general. But mostly I don't really have much on her either way, and she could as well be a wolf flying under the radar or an innocent flying under the radar...

Brinn - also not a glaringly innocent vote as far as the Huine votes go. Has been consistently suspicious all game, which paradoxically makes me slightly less worried about her. If anyone, innocent!Brinn would be a very easy suspicion target for the wolves. But that doesn't mean she's innocent of course. Also, Hui's defence of her makes me very confused. I originlly thought it looks quite wolf-on-wolf, but someone pointed out it looks almost like Hui slipping up that he knows Brinn is innocent. I'm quite torn about Brinn.

Eönwë - sealed Huine's fate, which makes me feel a little better about him. Otherwise I find him somewhat fishy and opportunistic (see: for instance the way he blames Shasta for holding onto his vote until things were resolved when he himself all but did the same) and he's also someone I consider a likely "fellow wolf" to a lot of people.

THE Ka - also "used to consider innocent on very little evidence, don't want to do so anymore". In fact, I've become slightly suspicious of her. The way she seems to play in her own little bubble, steering clear of controversy while "being helpful" very much reminds me of the "Fellowship of Saruman" ww game where she was rp'ing Radagast so endearingly in her own bubble with the birds and other cute animals that she flew under everybody's radar while she was actually a wolf. Also, her vote yesterDay is a little dodgy to me, as well as her staying away from the Huinescussion.

Shasta - pros: looks like he was shielding Kit. Cons: the way he hovered around yesterDay during the whole lynch without sticking his neck out. Also seemed reluctant to take part in the Huinescussion until he was forced to.


Would seriously consider quarantining

Zil - I used to think him quite innocent, and also was reluctant to join the chorus of lowkey Zil suspicion which seemed to be based on nothing more than the usual kneejerk "suspicious vibe" that always surrounds him - as I said, he's generally someone who's quite easy to get lynched so it makes sense for wolves to keep him on a suspicion list. But he's making me very uneasy now with his dodgy vote yesterDay, his fatalistic attitude about getting lynched toDay, and being fixated only on a few villagers (as someone said, convenient if he's a wolf thinking he's getting the axe).

Mac - okay, I hate to say this, but he has started to seem a lot more innocent to me. Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay. Greenie summarised this quite well in her #666.

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.


edit: xed with #674 and onwards

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

My two cents: 1. Likely yes. 2. Likely no (Hui had laid the grounds for voting Mac earlier, and it might have looked weird to back out of it. Besides, their vote was also self-preservation.) "3". I don't think so. The qt has just one vote. One (publicly known!) wolf vote is not much of a consolation prize for a dead fellow, I'd say.

I did not like the Kit discussion yesterDay and I think everyone involved in it is low key stupid (including Legate who said like five times "please shut up about Kit" which is, paradoxically, a very loud way to address the situation). But really, can we tell if there were wolves involved or if it was just innocents who didn't necessairly think things through? I don't think the Kitscussion is more informative than the Huinelynch - which makes me a little wary of anyone who chooses to pay attention to it primarily (looking at Kath here).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I have to agree with Legate here – I don’t get how an evil-majority QT means we should try pre-voting again. Boro, can you explain?

I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.

It won't go so far to determine anything with today's lynch, but can be used in hindsight tomorrow. In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it. So much for those arguments about needing information? It's a battle of wits, trying to out-fox the foxes, to the death.

There's no point in it now. I mean if I'm the only one who does it, they'll just ignore me anyway. So, I consider the matter closed.

I don't want to beat a dead horse with all the Mac-voters. My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.

I am definitely suspicious of the Mac-voters who have come out insisting to look at wolf-on-wolf voters, or the possibility that Mac is also a wolf. (Sally and Inzil). That would be something if the top 2 lynch possibilities were both wolves. Taking into account what I've seen so far from the pack, I find that unlikely Mac-wolf planned at night to go suicidal.

I have to get going for the next several hours. I was hoping to take a good look at the non Mac/Huey voters, but I won't have time until I'm back around 3 hours before DL. I may be able to sneak some time in to keep up on the activity.

Do you start seeing the difference now? I didn't focus on the "throw away" voters in Day 1 because a cobbler was lynched and there were votes that struck me as more productive to spend my time with. Yesterday a wolf was lynched, and the "throw away" voters look more suspicious than the people who voted Huey.

Of those, the one that stood out to me, but I'll take a look at all of them, was Lhuna's. I still don't know why she voted Lommy. Unless I missed it there was almost no reasoning there. Granted, her time zone avoids her from being present when the most activity happens, but that looks like a 2nd throw away vote. Her first was her own, Day 1 fine. I completely missed Huey's "slip" and Lhuna's response. If someone can be so kind to point me in the right direction to that.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought.

I was looking more at things from yesterDay as I wanted to be clear on it so I'm afraid I skimmed past it at the time. But looking at it now yes I can see we have ended up with the same ideas about Eonwe.

[Macalaure]

Eonwe is ready to lynch half the village in a pinch. How comforting.

Originally Posted by Lommie

Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay.

Logic, schmogic.

Originally Posted by Legate

I wasn't really worried about Zil until he said this.

Reminds me a bit of me late yesterDay, as some said, an innocent who's aware the village is out to get him, but you know you've dug your own hole and you're kind of accepting it. If I squint and tilt my head, I can see an innocent Inzil, but the hard evidence is against him. Right now, I'd prefer Sally and Greeny to him, though.

Speaking of which, I'm a little saddened by the scant amount of suspicion Greenie is getting. I'm going to put an analysis together, trying my best to approach it with a fresh mind.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. )

Zil's playful '-if I'm the main topic of conversation' quip reminded me of what we saw of Mac repeatedly yesterDay referring to himself as being the main target of suspicion based on bias from Rikae's bait post and then trying to jokingly/nervously skirt from it. Then we see Sally do similarly toDay, but to most if not all of her interactions with suspicion from other players.
I know Sally has acted this way in the past, but I haven't seen this from Zil over the past two Days at all. Not typical of their responses, so it seemed as if they were trying to remind and stoke suspicion and I didn't understand why.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

A valid thought to consider.

Legate votes Hui - first vote

(Mac posts twice during this time span of 13 minutes between Legate and Hui's individual posts - reading over Hui's posts while he read his raises his blood pressure and a final thoughts list with Hui in danger)

Hui votes Mac - Third vote

In their vote-post, we get that they are aware of scrutiny based upon them flip-flopping, generalizations, etc. Acceptance of scrutiny and a promise to follow up toMorrow to respond to accusations.

They conclude with this:

Originally Posted by Hui

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts)

Tone wise, it comes across that Hui was aware that suspicion against him was beginning to roll, but they choose to try and play calm and collected to see how it goes (almost like an insurance plan in case it doesn't and Hui assumes when players wonder why the next Day, they'll have a fairly safe leg to stand on).

Hui's closing words sound like a soft defense, but ultimately non-committal. He won't bite back, doesn't want to appear indignant or that his Mac vote is out of spite towards Mac's frustration with him. Yet, being Mac's 3rd vote, it's pretty safe in the line up and does come across as exactly orchestrated to be out of spite.

If Hui was a more experienced wolf, I'd begin to wonder why they joined a forming bandwagon at a fairly safe point with that tone in their post, but looking back I don't see it being one out of experience more of they knew they were caught and based on their previous statements and 'hunches' Mac was the only vote they had to appear somewhat expected and possibly nudge the Macwagon if they survived that day.

Does it absolutely point at Mac's innocence? Not entirely, Hui could still be going in step as the back-up plan if others weren't working out. It does however point that Hui was playing rather typical to his 'hedging all bets' in previous posts and was tone-wise more unsure of themselves. No one wants to be voted off, even if they're a wolf and the reluctance shows.

[Inziladun]

Mac is still looking better to me. Maybe it's because they seem to understand where I was coming from earlier.

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it?

Originally Posted by Lottie

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie,

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it?

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

Lommy, stop sounding sensible after I just figured out why you were pinging me, thanks. :P

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

Thanks! I somehow got that one and your list all mixed up. I've taken a look at both, and you both do suspect Sally and Zil more than Boro, but I think it caught my attention more because I noticed it a couple of times without realizing it was different people saying it. Still something to take a look at if Boro ends up being an Infector, but less significant, since I don't know that two wolves would both decide to try to soften the suspicion on Boro in the same way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back, a few remarks...

I liked Kath's post (#685) where she analysed the whole "let's talk about Kit" stuff yesterDay, and kinda find myself agreeing with most of the stuff she says there. It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

Also agree that Lhuna looks worse in that discussion and Pitch looks a tiny bit better (but I also have overall a bit better feeling about him. It is true that he DID keep the discussion going). And:

Originally Posted by Kath

Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?

Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?

Otherwise, Boro's posting continues to puzzle me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.

That's just a really weird reasoning to me, but it can hardly be argued with as suspicious if it's genuine - however, if not, then it was an attempt to communicate with the QT. Anyways, that can't be decided now, but my previously raised eyebrow remains raised.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.

Horrible excuses. I mean yes, I see the sentiment, but... Huey had been around during the Day, and there were enough posts. A quiet player might make two posts per Day. Would you hesitate to lynch them? It's excuses.

On another note, I am glad that someone also looked at Greenie, among other things. She is often a very good Wolf who can well slide under the radar. I think Mac brought up two good points here:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.

There are a couple of new posts that I haven't finished reading by the time I'm posting this, but I wanted to get this out of the way and again not create an infinite scroll. I'll see if there's anything I would like to remark on. (I saw Shasta making some generally good points, just on the first glance.)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The thing that struck me as weird was that Greenie put Sally and Zil as her top suspects, but didn't include Boro in that group - she put him two groups up, suspicion-wise, saying:

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Now obviously you can trust or suspect people for different reasons, you don't have to lump people together just because they voted similarly, but I do think it's eyebrow-raising to suspect two people for doing something but not really suspect the third person to do that same thing. She mentions that the vote makes her 'wary', but doesn't really suspect him, which could be soft wolf-on-wolf. I could see them being a wolf pair - if one of them ends up being guilty, I would definitely want to look at the other, as well.

Note: Quoted post is Lommy's, NOT Greenie's.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If the wolves thought Kit was the Ranger from her disbelief of G55 they'd just kill her. No reason to bring it up in thread. I don't find Inzil suspicious for that - it's a Cobbler move, but we've already dealt with that problem.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally springs to mind immediately. Her attitude of "you're wrong but fair enough" strikes me as... I dunno, "hail fellow well met?" Too easy.

Lommy is back on my radar for reasons unrelated to her vote - I don't like her classification of me during QT yesterday as "not sticking my neck out" when in fact up until the Eonwe vote, second to last, I was making my vote more and more important by not using it, with the vote as tied as it was. Feels like intentional misrepresentation.

Eonwe would be a cold wolf indeed to put the final nail in Huin's coffin when he could have done the same to Mac, although it's worth a look to see if he could have plausibly done so with regard to his previous suspicions. Not off my radar completely, but I have no interest in going there today.

[Thinlómien]

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Boro88

In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it.

Wolves could have thought the same thing though, whether we sit on our hands or not. If we 'offer' them a bulk of information they can still decide to throw out a vote that goes against any conclusive reasoning we've made for the sake of just chaos.
I just don't see us gleaning any major pearls of wisdom by waiting for the QT vote.

Are you trying to suggest that we go the 'fake-vote' route, throw a lot of information around our choices early on when their DL comes and then at DL vote completely different as some 'gotcha'?
A reminder that who started the fake-vote thing is sitting in the QT and is aware of it.

If so, then my hat's off to you for playing rather in character to your namesake by suggesting we try to use their tools against them.