Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

I've missed you too, Brinn.

I'm going to take a look at those falling under my radar. It's already late, so I don't know if I'll get to everyone tonight, or heck even toDay...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. I took a look at the last couple games I played and we ended on Day 6-7 at around 20 pages. It's only Day 3 and we're already at page 17! Is this just a really talkative group or pandemic boredom?

Okay, so first..

The Ka from yesterDay:

In post#426, she wonders why Mac wants attention on him and who would benefit.

Later she says...

Originally Posted by Ka

As I said in a previous post, it’s more curious to me why Mac wants to be associated with suspicion, why he keeps repeating his tale to us, etc. The problem I have is trying to figure out who benefits from Mac not only being suspicious, but later possibly being voted toDay into a (and I guess I’ll say it…) Macwagon. Wolves could easily hide in a pushed vote for Mac since he’s becoming a wonderful distraction along with Zil’s continued interest in Kit.
I need to go back for earlier toDay and see who could be nudging him along.

In her next post, she votes Lottie for softly pushing the idea of lynching Mac. So it seems her reasoning is similar to reasons I backed down on my initial suspicions in Day 1 on the LGP front, which doesn't say anything to me either way. But then the last paragraph of her vote post says:

Originally Posted by Ka

I'm not voting for Mac, because it's too obvious and appears as if to me at least, he's being subtly coached to take a fall. If he's a wolf doing it as others have mentioned, then it's because it's likely over a consensus with fellow pack mates and scripted. If he's innocent, then pretty much the same for the wolves as he's a convenient 'suspicion' from Rikae the previous Day that they know player's would have itching in the back of their minds. I'm not interested in being corralled into a bandwagon, even by the fairest words.
In short, I'm sticking to my earlier questions on identifying who is pushing for Mac, consistently, subtly at times, and buried here and there. I just don't see a lot of information to be revealed about others from just picking Mac, as he is his most and loudest trumpeter.

The first sentence I find a bit concerning because it seems to imply she thinks him more likely a wolf than not by saying it's too obvious he's being subtly coached to take the fall. But even if he were being coached by packmates, isn't better to lynch someone you think is more likely a wolf than not?

Today she further explained her vote:

Originally Posted by Ka

Still stand by what I said yesterday of pushing Mac right on through, it was just orchestrated too easily and I’d rather throw bumps in the road to examine who protests the most. Will admit that once I had a chance to re-read previous posts, Legate's suspicions on Lottie did stand out to me when I was looking at who could possibly gain the most on the Mac distraction. By the time I posted I knew it was going to be swamped by Mac votes and was preparing for foot stomping that I was being a spoil-sport, however, I didn't see Rune's vote until after since I was writing my vote in a separate window and reading posts backwards. I just assumed afterwards, he read the same as I.

Okay, I don't find her vote reasoning necessarily suspicious. As for timing - her posts are lengthy so I'm not sure how aware she was that Hui was being brought to the table.

On that note, it doesn't appear that Hui and Ka at any point interacted or mentioned each other. Could be nothing, or could be two wolves staying clear of each other.

In summary, I don't think I'm any better informed about The Ka. She could go either way.

[Brinniel]

Rune on Day 2:

Complains about long posts and chastises the Kit/Ranger discussion.

Mentions that Ka quoted him on something he didn't say in post#426. Was it this?

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

Seems likely to be a misquote. Don't know who originally said it, but she just comments on Mac from that quote rather than directly responding to the person who said it.

In post #498, he doesn't do lists, but does one. He categorizes:
Neutral:Lommy, Pitch, Inzil, Ka
Good: Legate, Lhuna, Shasta
Possibly Sinister: Lottie, Brinn, Eonwe
No read on the others.

For Lottie (whom he later voted) he says

Originally Posted by Rune

I really get a bad vibe from Loslote, but to be honest 50% of her posts seem outright reasonable. The reason she still makes this list is that I did not care for her post 114 where she tried to keep the Legate-Pitch day 1 spat going, without commiting. In post 294 she seems to commit to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched, which i did not care for.

Took a look at the two posts he referenced - the first is post of Lottie sharing concerns of the LGP group. The second he's referring to:

Originally Posted by Lottie

I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.

Which was followed with short analyses of the three. I don't see how "a little bit of side-eyeing" can be interpreted as "committing to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched." To me, Rune is overreacting, maybe because he's on that list?

He then proceeds to vote Lottie because he's going with "gut feeling (and the reasons on the list of doom)."

ToDay he criticized Lottie for how she categorized early and late voters. Fair to be critical, but his tone was a bit jumpy.

Like Ka, I did not spot any interactions with him and Hui (unless I'm missing something).

I find Rune's suspicions of Lottie to be flimsy partly because of his overreaction to that post and partly because in his description for her he finds her posts 50% reasonable, which is a bit noncommittal. I also see his vote as a bit of a throwaway; sure it was early enough to go any way, but at that time a Lottie lynch did not seem very likely. I am not as suspicious of Rune as I am of others, but I am wary of him.

---

I'd like to also take a gander at Lhuna and possibly Kath who are also floating under my radar, but that may need to wait until morning as I am tired.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).

I find this comment from THE Ka a bit off, given that she seconded Inzil calling Kit’s slip “curious” and so was instrumental in bringing it up in the first place; as long as it was only Inzil and no one else reacting to what he said, there was still hope it could be left alone. THE Ka didn’t take part in the later actual discussion about this with Kit herself, and was mostly ignored by people who called the whole thing suspicious. Her bringing it up now as something unrelated to herself – something that was “brought up half way through Day 2” – rubs me the wrong way. As I said before, though, if Inzil is a wolf I doubt Ka is, as two wolves seconding each other on poking at a potential Gifted would be brazen to the point of suicidal.

Originally Posted by Lommy

This is actually a very good point. Unless of course the wolf pack really agreed with Mac's extremely pessimistic view on his chances to survive the Day and decided to bandwagon on him to make themselves look better "when" he'd die. (I'm sorry but I would find this terribly funny. )

I think this makes sense, actually – I mean Lottie’s theory, not necessarily Lommy’s conspiracy theory (though I agree it would be hilarious).

Originally Posted by Inzil

It's a given that the votes are scrutinized: that's the best evidence we have.
At that time, I was still fixed on the Rikae-as-possible-Seer idea, and Mac was the only one of their suspects I thought had a shot at being lynched.
Huey was not really on my radar, mainly because it seemed every time I tried to scan one of his posts my brain muttered "what is he talking about?"
I was highly tempted to vote him after I saw Kit, because I was 99% sure she wasn't evil. Then Pitch and Lottie voted for him and I was not going to throw in with people who had been talking about lynching me. Petty, yes. Sorry.

Not sure I buy this. The Mac suspicion and wanting to lynch him is fair enough, but that last bit? First off, I’m confused by Inzil’s whole thing with Kit and why he brought her up in the first place if he was “99% sure she wasn’t evil”. Or did he only come to this conclusion after she had basically confessed to giftedness? I feel like there was already something about this somewhere but my brain is getting muddled. Second eyebrow-raise though – even if he concluded Kit was innocent, the Ranger doesn’t know anything more than anyone else so again, the only thing you’ll know from following her vote is that she won’t deliberately try to lead you astray. If he didn’t supect Huin, considering voting for him because Kit did so too doesn’t really make sense.

That said, Lalaith said basically the same thing, except she actually did go ahead and vote for Huin. I don’t necessarily agree with the argument, but as I said before, voting for a fellow wolf while saying you don’t really want to would be a strange move for a wolf – especially if (as in Lal’s case) you had another option open too.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I prefer LPG, which was the abbreviation for "Landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgenossenschaft" in the GDR.

Gesundheit.

Originally Posted by Legate

And yeah, I should perhaps be happy for knowing people sharing the idea, but Greenie's happy jump on the idea to vote Brinn seems worrisome to me.

Originally Posted by Legate

Greenie->Mac 2. Again, see Lommy. Note: she considered Brinniel equally much but opted for Mac (Greenie, why did you choose Mac over Brinn in the end?)

To answer the first point – I’m not sure if it counts as a “happy jump” on Brinn given that pretty much all I’d done the entire day was waver between Mac and Brinn. As for the second – that’s a fair question. In short, I could have gone either way but in the end thought the argument against Mac was stronger. Long version? I could see a possible scenario where innocent Brinn gets suspected over some unfortunate wordings early on, goes increasingly on the defensive, and then gets increasingly suspected for ensuing jumpiness; whereas I couldn’t think of a scenario where innocent Mac gets this level of paranoid about being implicated by a Night kill, or comes up with complicated theories about Cobbler55 thinking him a possible wolf dreamed by a Seer Rikae and then discusses this as connected to a theory that the wolves thought Rikae’s death implicates him and therefore he is being framed. Like, even if the wolves had picked up on G55’s supposed pegging of Mac as a Seer-dreamed wolf, surely they would have ignored this (or at least, not taken it as a sign of Rikae’s possible seerishness) unless Mac was one of them. So both parts separately, paranoid but still possibly fine. But the combination, and the fact that he very much presented them as connected parts of the same theory? I really, really don’t see how an innocent Mac would think this way.

Originally Posted by Legate

Yeah, let's keep that in mind. But actually, especially with the Evil QT, I am again (just like yesterDay with the Cobbler there) against any such vote. Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes. Anyone who does so goes into my suspect book. (Starting from you right now, *ping*(TM).)

I have to agree with Legate here – I don’t get how an evil-majority QT means we should try pre-voting again. Boro, can you explain?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Also, I realise that I suspected Zil based on his first post toDay because he immediately suggested wolf-on-wolf and Lommy on her first post toDay because she immediately focused on the opposite.

But I think immediately focusing on Hui-voters in the first post of the Day when there are definitely guilty Mac-voters seems like misdirection. On the other hand, Lommy saying that it's basically impossible makes me uneasy because it does seem like an option, just not the most obvious one.

This is a fair point. And while we’re on the subject of fishy reactions to the Huin lynch -

Originally Posted by Mac

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.

I kind of agree with Mac here (!!). I don’t like Sally’s repeated assertions (both last thing yesterDay and first thing toDay) that this makes her look bad. She then says that as a wolf she tends to bus her packmates so she wouldn’t have tried to save Huin if she was his packmate, but as was pointed out, this could just as well be Sally trying to cover her tracks with “but I never do that as a wolf!”

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I should make some summary or something because I keep reading people and thinking half of everything people say looks fishy, which does not bode well.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

I wasn't really worried about Zil until he said this.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You know, I thought about that - how Sallywolf wouldn't mind throwing a packmate under the bus - but now that you've brought it up, I'm wondering if maybe you are a wolf who panicked in the heat of the moment and toDay are hiding under the excuse that it's not your typical gameplay style.

I really don't like that Sally keeps bringing up the idea that both Mac and Hui are wolves. Sure, it's always possible, but I find it less likely. It feels like she is trying to use this as a distraction from the Mac voters, herself included.


What, are you feeling miffed that people are calling your kills boring and safe?

And this to keep in mind if either of Brinn or Sally turns out to be a Wolf. It almost sounds like a good Wolf-on-Wolf banter to me. (Warning: I'm gonna mention Wolf-on-Wolf few times here and I'm aware it isn't helpful at the moment. This whole post is sort of "for referrence".)

I somehow don't know at all what to do with Eönwë's way of posting, he seems as if his train of thought is "removed" from many of the trajectories the "mainstream debate" takes. Nothing against that. Regardless however some points he makes make me wary, but there is a lot of innocentish stuff too. He has just been drawing my eye recently.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Shastanis Althreduin - I didn't like how he waited until his vote didn't matter.

To file: this is so hypocritical and the following is so "casual" that it may be a soft Wolf-on-Wolf.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In response to Eonwe - you did basically the same thing, bruh. You and I were the last to vote. In my case, I was watching the votes basically be a perfect tie and thinking "well these reactions are gonna be interesting." I didn't have a good enough read on either Huin or Mac to warrant specifically saving one or the other, and I didn't have an evil-enough read to warrant condemning one or the other, so I was concentrating more on the voters than the votees.

I am uneasy with Lhuna's post about bandwagons and stuff, also didn't originally make anything out of her reaction to Hui's "wolf e-mails"; this however sounds a bit like it could be faked:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.

But I should probably focus on something where I am a bit more certain. These are sort of shouts in the dark.

Just overall: it's very nice how some people say "there are WWs unlikely to be in first half of Huiwagon" (Lottie) or equally dogmatically "there are WWs likely to be in the first half of Huiwagon" (Eönwë) or "there has to be a Wolf among Huiwagon" (Lommy) - point is, there doesn't have to be anything anywhere, still, in this big village.

I am wondering about Brinn and the first Day Brinnwagon and everything related to it. It seems clear that Hui stayed off it, and his generic behaviour is sort of avoidant (not naming too many suspects, being friendly where he could, etc.). Can it point to some pattern in his behaviour in relation to his voting strategy? Meaning, are those he voted likely to be innocent? (We know G55 was "innocent", in the sense, she was a non-Wolf.) And could Brinn be his packmate?

Knowing myself, I am unlikely to make a conclusive statement after I re-read his posts once again, but I will try. (I promise not to post a novel on it though, because it's been here many times already. I find it good however that everyone is trying to do their own maths.)