Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Thinlómien]

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.

As for the Legate kill - I'm not surprised at all. He was very widely considered innocent, especially after the Huine lynch. I will look at his posts at some point to look for "seer clues" the wolves might have picked up, but now I'm off to read toDay's discussion so far.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inzil

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early,

I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.

In my experience wolves are more prone to overreact to suspicion or potential suspicion, because they are nervous of getting caught. Again, absolute basic werewolf principle I thought you'd agree on. And again, yes, being jumpy doesn't mean you're automatically a wolf. But again, it makes it more likely because wolves are jumpier on average than innocents.

Originally Posted by Zil

Because she's RL busy, maybe?

Eh, if the claimed hunter hasn't voted yet, then I would assume they haven't sent their pick either. If they're RL busy and have to send their pick early, I would assume they'd also vote early.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

Basically. Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, the whole discussion of my attitude about "Sally the hunter" is pretty theoretical. You have to understand I was 90% sure she was a wolf. 90% of my brain was "I don't trust her, I don't trust her, I don't trust her let's kill her". The remaining 10% was "but ok what if she is actualy the hunter? what then?" and my brain's answer was "well it's just gonna be fun and it would be epic if she stabbed a wolf". I will readily admit that I was arguing for lynching a potential hunter making sense just because I wanted to get Sally lynched because I was convinced she was a wolf, not the hunter, so I kinda twisted my whole logic around that. I see I'm still doing it to a degree...

You don't need to tell me I was wrong about Sally, and that I was stupid, and that I literally pressed my fellow villagers to lynch our hunter. I perhaps ignored whether it's strategically wise because I was too blinded by my conviction that Sally was bluffing. So yes, I shot us in the foot a little, and you can be angry and frustrated about that, but I truly thought I was doing what's best for the village.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I also note that Lommy was not one of the people asking for the name of the person Sally was hunting, and didn't try to suggest any names or anything like that. She seemed completely fine with whatever Sally decided - which, given that none of the people Sally suspected are people I think are at all likely to be wolves, I find really concerning.

Wrong. I was not one of the first people to ask her who she's hunting, because it simply did not cross my mind to do so. However, once the question had been brought up, I seconded it. And yeah, I was fine with whatever Sally was going to pick. I trusted that if she was miraculously the real hunter, she might have a good guess. Also I admit that I also thought "well, if she happens to be the hunter, it's her problem who she picks, not mine". Irresponsible? Maybe a little, yes, but once again I repeat: I thought it was extremely unlikely she actually was the hunter. I certainly did not spend any time speculating who she might hunt if she's the hunter, because a) like I said I did not think she was the hunter in the first place, b) I would not think that the suspicions she voiced on the thread had anything to do with who she's hunting in case she was the actual hunter. Most hunters I've seen don't want to keep their cards on the table like that.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary.

I'm sorry, I can get a bit of tunnel vision in werewolf. Whether I'm right or wrong is about 50-50... At least, with Sally and Mac dead I'm forced to start afresh, and I think I've learned to take a breather when I get tunnel vision.

Originally Posted by Pitch

She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

For the record, I still think it's extremely likely there is a wolf among the late Mac voters - it just wasn't Sally, who I pegged as the most fishy of them. But there is more than one wolf left, so there could be a wolf among the early Mac voters too. Or among the Huine voters. Or among those who didn't vote either. But I thought the late Mac voters were the most likely bunch and thus the best place to start.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim. Besides, later it was brought into the discussion that Sally should tell us who she's hunting. She did not react, even though she seemed to be around. That also seemed dodgy to me. She could have said "I'd rather not tell" or told us a name and maybe given us more to analyse that way because now the people not voting Sally would have been protecting both Sally AND whoever she named. To me, she looked like a wolf caught in the middle of a half baked ploy, unsure how to proceed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this early

I'm gonna stand by this and say, yes we could. We probably can toDay too, but we obviously shouldn't.

Also I'm just gonna say that personally I think Lottie's "oh please Sally don't hunt me I'm innocent!!!" looks pretty innocent (especially paired with her Huey vote). I mean I guess she might be a brilliant wolf, but my infamous logic tells me she's unlikely to be one.


edit: xed with everyone on this page

[Thinlómien]

Ugh, I wanted to look at the lynch yesterDay and at Legate's posts but it's closer to 3am (oops) so I'm gonna do that tomorrow.

Still gonna say that the lynch was strangely unanimous. Clearly, a lot of innocents weren't believing Sally, and the wolves felt safe enough to hop in. As has been pointed out, mathematically Sally didn't have a particularly high chance of hitting a wolf. I guess the risk was worth it for the wolves and it was easy to hide in the flurry of innocents. Sally got 10 votes, so in the very least 3/5 of the Sally voters were innocent. Which makes the lynch possibly more difficult to analyse.

I also want to look at those who did not vote for Sally, and if any of them comes off as too sure of Sally's innocence. What a nicer place for a wolf to chill than staying away from a big innocent-on-innocent bandwagon that's bound to get scrutiny the next Day?

Safe to say, there are likely wolves both among those who did and those who did not vote for Sally. I think only closely analysing people's proclaimed reasons to do what they did will tell who's who. Or maybe not that either because I'm getting less and less convinced that werewolf is about logic.


edit: xed with Brinn and Pitch