Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, Quarantine Thread

[satansaloser2005]

I want to know how on earth Lottie is still alive. I think she's guilty just based on her continued existence.

[Macalaure]

All the different possible scenarios are making my head hurt.

If Boro is a wolf, there are a million possible plans and possible options and I don't even want to start thinking about them.

If Boro is an ordo, as he claims, how did he get the wolves to not kill him with his hints.

If Boro is double-bluffing and he is actually the real seer - then how did he get the wolves not kill him?

Those last two we can examine, though, and if we can deduce that there was no way, then he must be a wolf in turn.

The day he got Lhuna lynched, he surprisingly switched his vote to Eonwe. If Eonwe is a wolf, too, this would've rung every last alarm bell for the pack. Eonwe is either innocent, or the wolves' evidence for Boro not being the seer must've been extremely convincing (or he's one of them). Even if he listed a wolf as a known innocent, as a wolf, I would get pretty doubtful at that point. If we spare Boro, we should spare Eonwe as well.

The only possibility I see for non-wolf-Boro to survive is that he put an innocent as a prime suspect or a wolf as a known-to-him innocent. Considering that a seer still has to suspect people even if they're out of dreamt-of wolves, the former is not 100% safe and the wolves may second-guess it. Listing a wolf as a known innocent though, that might make the wolves go har har, he's bluffing.

This keeps bringing me back to Lommy and Brinn. (What do you think, baddies - want to vote for Brinniel again toDay? Oh, you know you want to )

Whether Boro is the real seer or an ordo, this reasoning goes the same way, except as the real seer he knew what he was doing whereas as an ordo he'd have to do it with a good amount of risky guesswork.

Here's one thing: in a regular game, the seer can't list a wolf as a known innocent. If the seer dies at night without being able to reverse that statement, he leaves the village with a wolf as a quasi-known innocent, which is a very, very terrible idea. In this game, a dead seer can feed the village their dreams via the QT vote, so it's actually doable.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The day he got Lhuna lynched, he surprisingly switched his vote to Eonwe. If Eonwe is a wolf, too, this would've rung every last alarm bell for the pack. Eonwe is either innocent, or the wolves' evidence for Boro not being the seer must've been extremely convincing (or he's one of them). Even if he listed a wolf as a known innocent, as a wolf, I would get pretty doubtful at that point. If we spare Boro, we should spare Eonwe as well.

Yep, strongly agree with this. Can't see a wolfpack that included Eonwe letting an innocent Boro live past that day - unless Lommy or Brinn was also in the pack.

So, if Boro is innocent (seer or ordo) either Eonwe is also innocent, or Eonwe is a wolf with Brinn or Lommy.

Unfortunately, if Boro and Eonwe are both innocent, we can't necessarily conclude anything from that about Brinn and Lommy. Boro could still have looked ordoish to the pack for the way he went after Eonwe.

But I think we can say if Eonwe is a wolf, one of Boro, Brinn or Lommy is in his pack.

Now, if Boro is a wolf, this whole plot had to be to flush out the real seer, and the nightkills thus far were people who looked seerish in relation to Boro. mentioned it today:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I find it more likely that if anything, your fake-seeriness was an attempt to catch the real seer, which is why the two people who challenged you on it, Lalaith and Pitch, are dead.

That makes some sense. But if so, it also means Pitch and Lalaith didn't do anything obviously unseerish (nothing flamboyantly wrong, especially in their last days alive). Looking back ... (since we have you both here, correct me if I'm wrong or miss something important!)

Day 4:
Pitch defends Lommy pretty strongly, then says:

Originally Posted by Pitch

I actually think both Lommy and Lottie sound genuine to me.

Calls Greenie out on double standard (defending her own safe votes while going after Sally for safe votes).

Lalaith suspects Lommy, but in a more noncommittal/non-dreamed way:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So because I haven't had time to do new analysis toDay I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

She mentions putting Shasta on her "watch" list, and wanting to get a handle on Kath, Ka, and Lhuna (before the QT vote).

Says:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I could vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, (same as my suspect list of yesterday)

She reinforces her suspicion of Brinn by saying the Legate kill pointed to her.

If Lalaith looked seerish, she would be a seer who might intend to dream of a wolf Shasta, Ka or Kath but hadn't yet, possibly dreamed of a Brinn wolf, maybe dreamed a Lommy innocent.

Night 5:
Lalaith gets killed.

Day 5:
Pitch says Lommy and Eonwe look innocent because suspected by Lhuna, but later suggests Eonwe and Ka could be packmates. Questions Boro about his seerish/wolf-slippish stuff. Suspects Greenie, but with points for and against/wishy washy way such that wolves could have still thought he was the seer if Greenie was innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean. ToMorrow is another question, depending on what happens till then.

Pitch responds to the QT vote by immediately asking if Lhuna decided it, which could have looked seerish if Rune was innocent, but wouldn't necessarily look ordoish if he wasn't. This later post however, would only look seerish if Rune was innocent:

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

Night 6: Pitch is killed.

If Pitch looked like a seer, he would have looked like one who hadn't dreamed of a wolf yet but might be about to close in on a wolf Ka or Shasta, and had dreamed innocents Rune, Lottie, and Lommy.

So in summary:

Innocent Boro (seer or ordo) means he was safely inaccurate, so:

Eonwe is either innocent, or a wolf with Brinn or Lommy.

In any case, the wolves looked for seers elsewhere which implies:

Lommy, Rune, Lottie likely innocent

Ka, Shasta, Brinn, Greenie, Kath potentially evil

Edit: crossed with everyone since my last

[Galadriel55]

I just had an idea why some of you "not-the Seers" might have been killed, completely besides potentially implicating someone's guilt or innocence. And now I really want to know if I'm right.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

In any case, the wolves looked for seers elsewhere which implies:

Lommy, Rune, Lottie likely innocent

Ka, Shasta, Brinn, Greenie, Kath potentially evil

My guts agree with this. I think I'd rather go Ka than Steve right now. (Although if Rune is the Seer and the wolves just haven't noticed, this would point to Shasta and Greenie being innocent.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

How likely do we think it is that none of the wolves got Rune's seer hint at the end of yesterDay?

Hard to say. But given the amount of fake Seer-reveals and all... maybe they themselves have their heads spinning.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Thoughts?

What's Shasta playing at? I've been seeing more blatant Seer hints from him than from Boro.

Sounded super much like Seer declaration to me. But this is exactly the time when someone might come up with something like that.

But in that case, it means that if we follow it, and it turns out to be false, then people will KNOW (hopefully) not to trust Shasta toMorrow.

Either he's a very bold wolf who just posted early to get the ball rolling the direction he wants (early!! Isn't that like the first time he did that? At least at the start of the game, he always waited!!!), or he's following a clear suspicion.

In any case the options he gives are rather decent, both.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

We need to consolidate our options a little and narrow it down. I feel we're too all over the place toDay.

Agreed. I think I'd be up for actually Steve or Ka, the same as I said above - they are also favourites on the LT, and if they're both wrong, well, I guess then everyone's off terribly.

I also agree with Rikae's conclusions here, in essence. Of course things can be completely different, but then anything is possible. We need to set ourselves some level of probability to operate with, otherwise we can just as well do whatever we want.

EDIT: x-ed since Rik on the previous page

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am super unsure about doing anything regarding Brinn. I would prefer perhaps Steve, out of everyone.

I am like eighty-percent convinced Lommy is innocent, at this point. But anything is possible.

[Inziladun]

We go vote Greenie to really throw 'em.

[Inziladun]

Of course, I consent to the majority.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

We go vote Greenie to really throw 'em.

Which side are you on, boy?
Which side are you on?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

We go vote Greenie to really throw 'em.

You can also do a "Vote Green" answer. I will be accepting those too.