Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, discussion thread

[Brinniel]

I'm a little disappointed that I never got to play in the QT since I've never been in a dead thread before, but obviously it was more important that I stick around.

I must admit, I'm so proud of myself for actually succeeding in this role - I was a bit terrified when I learned I was the seer since I sort botched it last time I had the role (dreamt of Night kills, then got Night killed early on, yet the entire village couldn't figure out my dreams).

So my goal for this game was to stay alive as long as possible and dream of those who a) aren't likely to get quickly lynched or killed and b) wouldn't expect a seer-me to dream them. My plan was to leave clues but avoid being so obvious to point being caught and keep under the radar but not too much (I always think it's a good thing to be a little suspicious as the seer).

I did NOT expect to almost get lynched Day 1. That almost never happens to which is actually why I kept my cool when Rikae voted me - I wasn't expecting their suspicion of me to start a bandwagon. I think reading the wolves' conversation, they were wondering why I didn't reveal then - it crossed my mind, but after I saw all the votes and did the math I realized I probably didn't need to because Sally's vote wouldn't lynch me and I didn't expect Lalaith to return. It was a heart-pounding moment, but a risk that paid off.

As for my dreams, I PMed Nogs all my reasoning for who I chose each Night so that I could have somebody to talk at.

Night 1:

I chose Lommy because

First Nights are always tough, but this time I think it will be most helpful to pick someone who is an active participant and has a history of sticking around for several Days.

Night 2:

Phew...that was close!
Let's just pretend I meant for all that to happen.

In all seriousness, the Day has given me plenty to ponder over. There are certainly A LOT of players whose intentions I would like to know, but alas, I can only pick one.

I took some notes which helped me narrow it down to four, then down to one. So let's go with:

++Pitchwife

Right now I'm finding several players to be suspicious, Pitch included. The difference is that I think knowing his role (regardless of what it is) could be more telling of other players as well.

I can't remember who my other three suspects were - probably Inzil...and maybe Hui and Boro.

I can't believe how accurate that Hui bandwagon was from the innocents - there really wasn't any seer help there. I had a hunch that Hui might be evil the way he defended me the previous Day, but had not dreamt of him.

Night 3:

Why I chose Lhuna

There's plenty to scrutinize from yesterDay's later votes, which I think will be discussed heavily by the village toMorrow. So I would rather learn more about one of the earlier voters particularly someone who is flying under the radar as I imagine a wolf is hiding among them. Unfortunately that makes picking someone a shot in the dark, because I honestly have no clue which one could be evil!

This really was a lucky guess because I was very close to dreaming Greenie instead. I was quite gleeful that I found a wolf, yet I was not in a hurry to lynch her and make it too obvious. We had just lynched a wolf, so I knew I had an extra Day or two to observe her and hopefully find clues to other wolves. Unfortunately, she disappeared the next Day. I was actually a little bummed she got lynched the Day after because 1) I really wanted to lynch Inzil (sorry!) and 2) it was nice to have a known wolf in my back pocket should I need to reveal. The good thing was that since the village seemed set on lynching her, I was able to step back and go along with it without looking seerish to the remaining wolves.

My first reaction to Nogs after Lhuna's lynch:

Quarantine Thread stole my thunder.

Didn't realize it was actually evil Boro...

And Inzil, I never did dream you because you seemed like a viable lynch candidate and also I realized if I was wrong about you, doing a Legate180 would appear incredibly seerish. I did briefly doubt my suspicions for a little while because I wasn't sure two wolves would entangle themselves in the ranger debacle, but I just had to know your role and it had to be via lynch. (Again, sorry!)
See Night 3

After everything that happened, I find Inzil to be the most suspicious - so much so that I actually do not want to dream him because I think he may be a viable lynch candidate toMorrow, guilty or not. And even if he is innocent, I have concerns that an attempt for me to defend him may give seerish vibes. If he does survive the Day (and I'm still alive), I may revisit him.

and Night 5

I've now come to realize that I can't dream Inzil because in the scenario that I'm wrong about him and he's innocent, doing a 180 on him toMorrow could be a red flag to the wolves. It's driving me crazy - I just want to know what he is!

Night 4:

I had five players on my short list that Night. I considered Lottie, but thought if she were innocent, her reaction to Sally's hunt might hint seerness and get her killed. In the end I chose Shasta because

If he's a wolf, he's slipping under the radar. If he's innocent, his psychic powers weren't really working yesterDay, but maybe they'll pick up again later - and I find it less likely that he will be killed toNight.

Shasta, I have to echo Lommy from earlier in the game and wonder whatever happened to those psychic powers?

Night 5:

I was rereading yesterDay's events last night...and at some point fell asleep. Anyway, I'm just going to go with my gut because I think knowing his role will be most useful:

++Eonwe

And considering he became quite suspected later on, knowing his role was indeed helpful.

Night 6:

Now that I know Inzil is innocent, I'm come to realize I honestly have no clue who the final three wolves are! There are certain pairs I find unlikely, but even after going through past posts, I don't feel confident about anyone anymore.

I really was thrown - you guys really did a good job hiding from me too. If it weren't for process of elimination, I don't think I would've figured you out. Thus, my choice of Greenie was another shot in the dark.

Once I knew she was innocent, I starting grouping unknowns to figure out possible wolf pairings. In my handwritten notes, at one point, I did note Ka/Kath/Boro as the most likely trio. I was almost certain about the first two and less so about Boro.

As for the whole Boro-ploy. I did leave him alone that Night thinking he might be an ordo baiting the wolves. When he didn't die, I thought it might be because he was wrong about Eonwe and the wolves didn't fall for it. I tried to stay away from the discussion that Day in case it was a ploy to draw out the seer, but in all honesty, I thought him more likely to be innocent by the end of the Day for the same reasons Lommy gave.

Day 6 was tough for me because I had a RL Board meeting to attend during the last two hours and while I was able to monitor the thread, I could not actively write anything. If one of my unknowns had gone to QT overNight, I would have immediately revealed. But Pitch was chosen instead which had me weighing my options. I did the math and realized I probably could reveal and result in a win, however I felt less comfortable doing so without a confirmed wolf and should there be a counter reveal or the village not believe me, RL wouldn't allow me to defend myself. And anyway I thought there was enough seer talk for one Day. I decided I'd only reveal if a known innocent (i.e. Eonwe) was looking to be the primary lynch candidate. I even pre-wrote my reveal post (which was similar to the actual one I used) - that way I could just hit submit during my meeting if necessary. (I did the same with my vote.) The QT vote caused me to panic for a quick second and I thought really was going to have to reveal to save myself. Thankfully the village ignored their vote and smartly went with Ka.

Night 7:

That Night I thought there was a chance that my defense of Eonwe exposed me and I really thought I might get killed. If not me, I suspected it would be Greenie, but thankfully the wolves fell for Shasta's seer hints. I chose Kath because

If she's not evil, so help me..

And I really needed a known wolf.

I really was torn between Rune and Boro the last Day. Rune kept looking more like a frustrated innocent and Boro's last posts were rather fishy (especially when he tried to advise me on how to lead QT vote the next Day). Boro you were truly brilliant - I semi-suspected you for the first half of the game, but after you bused both Lhuna and Ka along with you claiming to be ordo pretending to be the seer, I was fairly convinced you were innocent. Right up until the end.

All of you baddies did a great job, really. If it weren't for my seer abilities, I really don't think I would've had you figured out and if you had found me, I think you most likely would've won the game because you definitely kept the village guessing.