Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If this is right, it also explains BG's night-kill: not primarily a long-shot Seer, but someone who was unlikely to be protected by either the Ranger or the Beast Hunter. After all, if they can get to Day Four and time it right, it doesn't matter if the Seer has nailed all four of them: they win by getting the first vote. Their greatest danger would come from having one of their kills blocked (or, of course, one of them eating a lynch!).

Hmm... haven't made the maths myself, but I trust yours here.

In that case I'm actually curious no-one in the Living Thread seems to be too bothered about it...

Secondly: we might be witnessing a Seer reveal soonish - and possibly a counter-reveal by the NW. Especially if you have it right and it is indeed Greenie who is the Seer with three non-wolf Dreams. If the villagers vote the right way (so don't get fooled by a rival-reveal), they could then organize protection to her for the next Night and have a fighting chance.

Okay, I clearly need to look at the numbers.