Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, I guess you hS forgot something from your calculations: us!

The wolves may try to go for the "even numbers first" -victory - but we can derail them by giving an extra-vote to the good side and making it one vote -lynch. Which naturally means we'd have to succeed in it as well.

But yes. The worst scenario aka. an innocent lynch toDay and a succesful kill by the wolves the next Night will leave the village in the morning of Day4 at 6:4 by roles and 5:5 by siding. So in theory the wolves could win on Day4. It's only that they would really need to succeed in everything and we'd need to goof it royally.

Oh yeah... us. You're right, I did forget. Still doesn't help if they can piggyback a villager's vote Day 4 - that would get them 6 to a total of 5 (with us) against them.

As for us goofing it... I mean, we have for the last two days! The two protective Gifted will still have ten possible targets each toNight, and if the Seer reveals then at least one of them will have to protect her, making a kill even more likely.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With any other scenario than that things will be a lot more interesting and there are a myriad of variations.

That said I guess the Seer might still be holding her/his horses yet this Day. Then again there's the NW-issue no-one has talked about in a long time - but the wish of the wolves to unleash those capabilities probably hasn't gone anywhere. With only innocents dead thus far they might start to think, at some point, that they could afford one number less...

I feel like the best wolf strategy is to treat the NW as an ordinary wolf. Everyone thinks they'll be acting Cobblerish, so their best bet is... not to.

hS