Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

Oops, I somehow temporarily forgot it's Day3 already. (In my defense, days when you sleep 6h and work 9h should be banned. That's an unhealhty ratio.)

Originally Posted by Shasta

That seems to be the point of your post, though - if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath or Form, they'd have jumped on the other - but they didn't, they went for Nog. So they didn't want to save just one of them - they wanted to save them both. Which would make them all evil together. Right?

Agreed on principle. But that would require a) coordination, b) willingness to stick their necks out a little. Plus, there isn't a reason why they couldn't have acted the same way if innocent. So until we know at least 1/4 of their identity, it's all guesswork. (And side note, I'm always sceptical of theories that pin down the whole wolf pack a once. I mean, it would be amazing, but I've yet to see one that was correct. Especially on a Day3 with no proven wolves around.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

Fair point, but more than half the village were still left to vote at that point so she could have figured the situation was likely to change. Also she didn’t actually add a new lynch candidate, Nilp already had one vote so she tied him with herself and Form. Admittedly she could have voted Form, too, but this would have looked pretty fishy for her the next Day if she hadn’t suspected Form previously (I don’t actually remember if she did).

Hm, maybe I better take one more look at that vote tally.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Not sure if this holds water. First-post-of-the-Day comments on what happened at the end of the Day before (the lynch, the Medium) are not knee-jerk reactions. People’s actual reactions to the events, whether it’s feeling gleeful or bummed, happen behind their screens, 24 hours before they write those posts the next Day. So you might feel really bummed about the lynch, but 24 hours later not feel compelled to say you feel bummed about the lynch. (Personally I almost never do, whatever my role – I just don’t see the point. That doesn’t mean I don’t feel bummed when we lynch an innocent.) What I’m trying to say is, I’d be wary of reading too much into that kind of thing since I think it indicates personality/posting style more than alignment.

I feel like my answer to this boils to a bit "yes, BUT". Rikae's glee at Hui and Lottie's choice wasn't an instant reaction either. But clearly it was the one first on their mind. I still think that's a more likely priority for a wolf/cobbler than for an innocent. Of course, I'm not saying it PROVES anything, but it caught my eye.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

Solid, even though it still leaves no way to communicate a wolf dream (more important). But umm, let's discuss this when it's relevant and not shortly before the deadline on a Day when it's not relevant yet?

I would prefer to vote Form toDay. Not too covinced about Legate's guilt.

(I'm open to other options at least in theory, but. *shrug*)

[Thinlómien]

++Form

No reason to keep sitting on it, I guess.

[Macalaure]

++Formendacil

Seems that's what the cool kids are doing these days.

[Brinniel]

Is everybody voting for Formy? That's great if he's a wolf, however, I'm afraid toDay's voting tally won't tell us much come toMorrow whatever his role may be.

[Brinniel]

Well, not that it makes much difference at this point:

++Formy

X-ed with the last two posts

[Boromir88]

The positive is. We'll I'll have the narration and reveal done right at the DL.

The bad is, Form your fate is sealed.

The dead have chosen a medium today too. So, stay tuned in 25 minutes

[Rikae]

I really hope folks have been paying attention from the beginning, and glean something useful from it about the characters in the play, and fish-leather jackets and coyote-skin coats and radical visionaries and all the other magical things in the happy land of Mirkwood.

(Do you realize 2/3 of us have special roles?)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Seven of twelve votes, so no overhauling this result anyway.

++Formendacil

Crossed with Pitch's eighth vote.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.

I was hesitant about Shasta trying to push me to commit to that theory, now Pitch is presenting the very same combo as if it hadn't been discussed before. What's up, dudes? Is one of you perhaps... making shoes for a living? Why are you so into a conspiracy theory that's... basically that, a conspiracy theory. How likely is it really to nail the whole wolf pack with one guess?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

How likely is it really to nail the whole wolf pack with one guess?

12 villagers, 4 wolves, 1/495 chance. Not quite as bad as playing the lottery.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I was hesitant about Shasta trying to push me to commit to that theory, now Pitch is presenting the very same combo as if it hadn't been discussed before. What's up, dudes? Is one of you perhaps... making shoes for a living?

[my bolding]
Now I want to make a song parody based on this.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Why are you so into a conspiracy theory that's... basically that, a conspiracy theory. How likely is it really to nail the whole wolf pack with one guess?

Not very, of course. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more than one wolf in there.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

[my bolding]
Now I want to make a song parody based on this.


Not very, of course. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more than one wolf in there.

Fair enough. That sentiment I can agree on, but "the wolf pack is Rikae+Legate+Form+Kath" is a bit too much of a leap of faith for me.

PS. Listening to that song at 0.45am feels like a psychedelic trip for my tired brain.