Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Kath, Mac, and Legate seem a fairly concensus "core" Wolfpack.

Yes - and still our consensus actually worries me a bit. I mean when one starts to believe in some solution one's critical powers take a considerable hit; when one falls in love with one's explanation one easily stops thinking all together.

Rikae, Shasta and Lommy (or even Greenie) could be the core of a wolfpack as well. Or well, almost any combination.

Although I hope Greenie really is the Seer as it would both make sense and be encouraging if we got it right (and the wolves didn't) - even if that also makes me a bit worried that the wolves might then be after her pretty soon. On the other hand, Greenie is such a smart person that she might actually pull that trick in front of our eyes and be a wolf.

But we should be wiser come Day4.


I'll join the consensus also in the other topic: Dead Threads are a very good idea. Not only because of the nice atmosphere, but also because everyone can play the game to the end and no-one is dropped off the game (without a possibility to discuss with others about it).

[Loslote]

Speaking of Greenie, who do we think will be joining us in a few hours? I think Greenie and Rikae might be Seer-targets, and I think Rikae is the obvious person to be protected toNight after their hinting yesterDay, which might unfortunately make Greenie a safer choice for the wolves. They might also go for someone quiet like Shasta, though.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Speaking of Greenie, who do we think will be joining us in a few hours? I think Greenie and Rikae might be Seer-targets, and I think Rikae is the obvious person to be protected toNight after their hinting yesterDay, which might unfortunately make Greenie a safer choice for the wolves. They might also go for someone quiet like Shasta, though.

I think it's likely to be one of those two, and if it isn't we need to wonder why. The other choice, of course, is Nilp... I don't think we'll see him here; with how erratic he's been, the wolves will have to wonder if he's a) the Cobbler, or b) laying traps outside his own door toNight.

Could Rikae's blatant hint have been an attempt to divert attention from Greenie's more subtle one? If we go with the theory that BG was killed for literally saying 'will I dream?', then Rikae may think the wolves are going after really obvious targets.

hS

[Loslote]

I do think that in this game, with the two protective Gifteds, it has to occur to innocents that there should be at least one person setting themselves up as obvious "bait". I did it, BG kind of did it, Nilp claims he did it (all of us with limited success). So I wouldn't be surprised if Rikae decided to make themselves the "bait" for toNight.

[Blind Guardian]

Edit: image didn't load. Gimme a minute.

Okay I don't know how to get images to appear in the thread.

Oh well, attached is the voting tally. Left is sorted by name. Right is sorted by time stamp.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Oh well, attached is the voting tally. Left is sorted by name. Right is sorted by time stamp.

From which we can see immediately how bad (or unlucky?) this village has been. Five of the eleven survivors have only voted for people we now know to be innocent; if we include Nilp on the 'confirmed innocent' list, we find only three of them have voted for potential baddies. Greenie hasn't had any of her votees killed yet; Mac and Pitch voted Pitch and Kath on Day 1. That's it. Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

Okay.

So let's assume the wolves don't straightforwardly involve themselves in bandwagons which end up lynching innocents - because they know which bandwagons to avoid - but they will take part in some, especially on D3 when there weren't too many to be of a different opinion.

So four wolves making three votes each is 12 votes. I would say it goes something like 40-60 for wolves joining succesful innocent-bandawagons (them voting an innocent who is lynched 40% of the time the most, and nicely hiding behind a non lynched candidate 60% of the time), as a conservative estimate. It could be 1/3 vs. 2/3 as well - which would be even worse from the villagers' POV.

Looking at the craziness of D3 voting we might need to bring that percentage to 50-50 as the wolves had no other option but to comply (basically Brinn's complaint could be read as well as a frustrated wolf's cry of "doggone it" than an innocent's).

With that ratio we'd have the wolves giving 6 votes to others than the known innocents, so meanwhile the rest of the village (8 people) have given votes to "not-known innocents" only three times!

8 innocent villagers 3 votes each - and only three of those votes have gone to someone else than a now known innocent!




They really need to pull themselves together now.

Originally Posted by BG

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

I'm afraid that might be true. And if what happens toNight is because of:

Originally Posted by BG

If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.

then I'm going to be a little frustrated as well...


So thumbs up for the Ranger!

[Blind Guardian]

Honestly, looking at this is pretty apparent that Greenie is the stand out.

Literally everyone else voted for Form.

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

Unless the Ranger is paying attention and caught what we caught. If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But we should be wiser come Day4.

The Living need to be very cautious toMorrow. One wrong vote from an innocent and the wolves can pile on. Really I think we need help from the Gifteds, either a save or a Seer reveal, the village just doesn't have any room to get it wrong.