TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Random note: why am I not surprised that Kath hasn't made an appearance yet?

Oy!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Can't speak for Huin, but for myself - in the same sentence I also mentioned Lommy wanting to start bandwagons (which is also quite a stretch) and Lottie gardening (I assume she wasn't, in fact, actually gardening).

I actually was - I spent all afternoon yesterday pulling rocks out of my IRL garden and tending seedlings.

I'm getting a slight vibe from Greenie like she's adjusting her positions slightly as she goes to make them more palatable - nothing concrete, but definitely a kernel of a suspicion. I also thought this by Kath was very interesting:

Originally Posted by Kath

Morsul - interesting to note Hui as the least suspicious (post 14). Didn't mention the reason for this assessment which is odd given Hui was focusing on them a fair bit at this point. Then in post 19 throws in the idea that Hui could actually be wolfy. So from most innocent to potentially wolfy rather quickly there.

It is a little strange how much Morsul was focusing on Huin early, to the almost complete exclusion of anyone else. In fact, I don't think Morsul has interacted with or mentioned anyone other than Huin, with his throwaway comment about Boro posting first being the exception that proves the rule. I don't know what to make of it. It's not a great strategy if they're packmates, and he switches between suspicion and trust so quickly that it doesn't suggest any special knowledge - if I had to guess, I would say Morsul is either a wolf and Huin isn't, or Morsul is an ordo with a bit of tunnel vision. Definitely the most suspicious thing to happen thus far, although I acknowledge that that's a low bar to clear at this point in the game.

[Kath]

Not enough info:
Form
Lottie
Soriman
sally - with a caveat that hiding a wolfy nature under a Cobbler style first post is absolutely a sally way to play the game

Everyone else ... the particular questions I had in my last post point me towards Hui, Morsul and potentially Legate as lines of suspicion.

Hui's latest post (#32) is interesting. Half saying to discount the interplay with Morsul because a bigger deal is being made than it deserved, but then actually continuing the same interplay within said post. I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that. I find Morsul's switch from Hui being least suspicious to potentially wolfy (post 19) more worrisome, particularly because the original statement of being least suspicious didn't seem to have any basis behind it.

So, an early vote from me toDay for the reasons stated above for:

++MORSUL

[Boromir88]

What's this? Kath here...remembers to post and even votes on Day 1!

Originally Posted by Loslote

It is a little strange how much Morsul was focusing on Huin early, to the almost complete exclusion of anyone else. In fact, I don't think Morsul has interacted with or mentioned anyone other than Huin, with his throwaway comment about Boro posting first being the exception that proves the rule. I don't know what to make of it. It's not a great strategy if they're packmates, and he switches between suspicion and trust so quickly that it doesn't suggest any special knowledge - if I had to guess, I would say Morsul is either a wolf and Huin isn't, or Morsul is an ordo with a bit of tunnel vision. Definitely the most suspicious thing to happen thus far, although I acknowledge that that's a low bar to clear at this point in the game.

I don't know why that would be considered strange? I mean isn't it a natural tendency to focus on the person accusing and asking you direct questions?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't know why that would be considered strange? I mean isn't it a natural tendency to focus on the person accusing and asking you direct questions?

Sure, but to the exclusion of all else? And with somewhat dramatic shifts in opinion (that were strongly stated for being based on not much to begin with? Like I said, it could be an ordoMorsul with tunnel vision, or it could be a wolfMorsul trying to invent suspicions. The one scenario I don’t think is likely is both of them being wolves - and the interactions from Morsul to Huin look more targeted than the other way around, so I’m more able to draw conclusions about Morsul then I am about Huin, who has been very active on a number of fronts so far.

[Morsul the Dark]

Not sure what to post about anyone else since most are just neutral posts on everyone and then Huin and Morsul are weird right? But Morsul is weirder. I called it earlier I’m an easy bandwagon and I don’t even understand how I was supposed to act to avoid being thrown under the bus. There seems to be a lot of emphasis on me becoming suddenly suspicious when I actually say why. Which also contained why I was least suspicious. (First time felt genuine((least suspicious)) kept poking((more suspicious)))

No this doesn’t feel right to me. The argument Lommie is the first one I see that makes the argument that I’m suspicious because I’m touchy(a phrase oft repeated here). Which feels like getting poked over and over and reacting and everyone goes “See why would they react?”

Kath gets a vote in early which I’m sure is based on everyone having wildly different time zones but is also an easy defense if I am killed and proven innocent.

Boro seems to see through this nonsense but annoyingly that helps if he is a wolf since he can then say “told you so”

I dunno. If Huin is a wolf then well played that was an excellent orchestration of events.

Don’t know who I’m voting. Probably Huin but I’m not set in stone on that.

[Pitchwife]

Thing is, I've seen this kind of mutual suspicion between Hui and Morsul before, and watched it happily as a wolf munching popcorn. Hui is always pushy-pokey, and Morsul is always a bit of a wild card, as well as an easy target, like he said himself. It's an explosive mixture. Right now I'm leaning towards seeing them both as innocent.


Also, I'm puzzled by this from Kath:

Originally Posted by Kath #37

I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that.

So you're saying that
- it's unlikely they're both wolves
- Hui can't be a wolf because he isn't trying hard enough to bus Morsul

- therefore Morsul must be a wolf?
I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. It seems to presuppose that one of them has to be a wolf, which I find questionable. And wouldn't the very half-heartedness of Hui's suspicion rather suggest wolf-on-wolf than not? Or are you really saying that a Huiwolf would try harder to bus a packmate on D1? There's being fine with bussing, and there's pushing it without need - big difference.

[Huinesoron]

Boro has posed another question of the 'you say this is bad/strange, but what if actually it's not?' structure, so I'm happy to put his original version re: debates down to playstyle. Not high on my suspects list at this point.

I'm sensing a bit of a Morsul focus forming... Lommy highlighting it as one of the few suspicious things, Kath echoing this and adding a vote, Lottie spending most of her last two posts on it. Not a wagon per se, but a wolf in there could be pushing for one.

But then again, each time Morsul posts I'm split between thinking 'wounded innocent' and 'cornered wolf'. Mostly they sound very genuinely fed up at being unfairly suspected, but then we get:

Originally Posted by Morsul

I don’t even understand how I was supposed to act to avoid being thrown under the bus.

Like... if you're innocent, I don't think you go around implying you're putting on an act (or that you think you should have, which is another possible reading). The "next time I'll lie" post from earlier shows the same not-very-innocent-seeming thought process.

Of the other people now around, I think Pitch looks innocent and sensible, but I'm pretty sure I always do and occasionally get bitten for it. Kath's comments also look like genuine innocent musings - her note on Greenie's comments on Legate, for instance.

Below that, nothing concrete: Lottie feels fine, Lommy is giving me undefined uneasiness, and it's nice to see Soriman but there's not much to say about them.

I also haven't gotten over my suspicion of Greenie's tagging onto suspicions (I know someone else commented on this but can't find who), but without any more appearances I can't really add to that.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

[b]

But then again, each time Morsul posts I'm split between thinking 'wounded innocent' and 'cornered wolf'. Mostly they sound very genuinely fed up at being unfairly suspected, but then we get:
[Morsul asking how to act]

Like... if you're innocent, I don't think you go around implying you're putting on an act (or that you think you should have, which is another possible reading). The "next time I'll lie" post from earlier shows the same not-very-innocent-seeming thought process.
hS

++Huin

This just feels like pushing a bandwagon while pretending to not wanting it.

My quote conveniently out of context was basically saying I said an answer and you saying I didn’t use the right words. All of which weren’t the actual answer. Hence the lying quote. My posts were what I thought and said because they were true. Could I have worded them differently? Perhaps but I certainly wouldn’t lie.

[Formendacil]

This will be a terrible post in hindsight if [b]Hui[b] turns out to be a Wolf, but purely on the basis of Day 1, I am against lynching him toDay--that is EXACTLY what we did last game and we are going down that same garden path and it was a horrifically stupid loss for the Village, and for exactly the same reasons.

...which is me breaking protocol and referencing past games, I guess, but even insofar as Hui is the anti-me (i.e. trying way to hard to analyze Day 1 during Day 1), I think lynching him for that on Day 1 would be as bad as lynching me.

(I realise I've offered no alternative, but "the most lurky" seems as fair a way to do it as any. Actually... can I propose a rule for future games? No? Okay, but let me put a pin in this for post-games. I have a rule-change proposal. )

[Thinlómien]

++Huinesoron

I don't think anything would make me kick myself more than if I caught a wolfy vibe from him TWICE and let him off the hook because "maybe it's just his playing style" TWICE and he was a wolf BOTH TIMES.


edit: xed with everyone

[Soriman the Whide]

As I was away working in distant lands and extremely busy, it cannot have been me that commited the foul deed.
I am concerned that wolves are guiding our conversations here Huinesoron
has been very good at this so far... Pitch has made some strange arguments against Huin but I don't believe anyone should read into this.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I could see Pitch's somewhat contra-intuitive suggestion of a Legate-Huinesoron pack as a wolf tripping over his feet to fabricate a wolf pack accusation. Perhaps especially if one of Legate and Huinesoron was his packmate actually. Or maybe they're Plot Twist all wolves together?

I find the exchange between Lommy and Pitch interesting. Lommy makes a plausible argument against Pitch here (discounting the Plot Twist which, while hilarious if actually true, seems somewhat unlikely ). Meanwhile, Pitch explains himself as follows -

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm not quite sure what I'm saying. Something like, if a Legwolf thinks Huiwolf is behaving typically Huiwolvish he may want to pretend bad memory as an excuse for not picking it up. It's not an argument that they must be wolves together, but I think it would kind of make sense psychologically.

I do like the honesty here - even if it doesn't necessarily say anything about his alignment. What's more interesting is that in his next post, he switches his focus on to Lommy -

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, mind you, I'm not convinced that either of Legate and Hui has to be a wolf. So far I'm more suspicious of Lommy because of #24:

[...]

So she suspects Hui because of bad vibes but not really, and Morsul for being touchy, a bit more really but then again... Seeing how Hui and Morsul suspecting each other had been most of the action so far, this feels to me much like a wolf thinking, "Hmm, either of these could become a promising bandwagon but let's not commit just yet."

Again, the point itself is reasonable enough (at least by Day 1 standards) but the timing is curious. He doesn't make an explicit link between Lommy suspecting him and himself then suspecting Lommy, and perhaps it's genuinely a coincidence; but all the same, it does look a lot like turning to suspect the person who suspects you without explicitly appearing to do so. This makes me feel more uneasy about Pitch, but says nothing of whether Lommy would then be an innocent bystander or a co-conspirator.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie - mentions Hui seems ok and Legate tends to be more abrasive when innocent. Not sure if she's meaning he is abrasive at the moment and therefore innocent, or that if he was innocent she'd expect to see him act more abrasively (post 28).

This was badly phrased on my part. I meant the former - I think Legate has been his more abrasive self so far, which makes me lean rather innocent than not on him so far. In general, I really like what I've seen of Kath - she brings up several shrewd points about what's been going on. Especially the following two -

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate - not liking the way Hui is behaving but more concerned about Greenie following a similar line (post 16). I disagree about Greenie just following what Hui said, as Hui was pointing it out as suspicious, while Greenie seemed to be treating it as generic banter. Continues to focus on Greenie and Hui and wondering about Hui/Boro being wolf-mates for the back and forth. Why not Morsul/Hui for the same reason?

This is a valid point. As mentioned before, I'm getting a fairly innocent vibe of Legate so far, and the discrepancy Kath mentions here could easily be an innocent Legate who just didn't think there was a connection. But at the same time, if there is an actual argument as to why Hui/Boro looks like wolf-on-wolf but Hui/Morsul doesn't, I'd be curious to hear it.

As for the second important point Kath raises -

Originally Posted by Kath

I find Morsul's switch from Hui being least suspicious to potentially wolfy (post 19) more worrisome, particularly because the original statement of being least suspicious didn't seem to have any basis behind it.

This is an interesting catch, especially the latter part. Again, there's an element of turning to suspect the person who suspects (or in this case, questions) you, but what makes this case curious is that Morsul does single Huin out, very early on, as the least suspicious out of everyone. I haven't quite worked out the possible implications of that, and I feel like I'm getting a bit too sleepy to give this bit the attention it deserves. At the same time - and I apologise for the flip-flop - if I were to go by vibes alone, the vibe I get from Morsul just now is more frustrated innocent than wolf.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Now this is a strange thing to say for a player who sniffed out a Huiwolf, on D2, pushed for his lynching and was killed for it just two games ago (granted, that was last year, but still).

I'm actually embarassed, and feel like I should apologise to Hui for forgetting about this interaction we had. (I am worried however how much this is a sign that I am getting, ah, so old and forgetful, children...)

Anyway, to the matters at hand. I spent a lot of time gathering provisions, cooking and re-reading; but here is a list of my impressions of people so far (which is probably gonna crosspost with a dozen, so I'll have to post more later, but anyways; for now):

Boro - has been vocal, as expected, and overall in the centre of attention. Even though I have to say that he was more in the centre of attention because others started speaking about him, rather than him going out and questioning others, as is more oft his habit. What to make of that shift I am not certain.

Form - has not said nearly enough to merit any reasonable judgment, so I would like to see more from him before I could state anything.

Greenie - actually of all people, the way she posted seems to me the most suspicious. I am still not convinced that she did not have an evil intent in signal-boosting Hui's potential suspicion-wagon. There is also something slippery in general about the way she responds, as opposed to sharper and more focused that I'd expect.

Hui - was certainly very inquisitive, which like I said by itself means nothing, and I was not entirely convinced by his response to my question about him. While questioning people is a perfectly legitimate thing, throwing casual "XY makes me a little suspicious" or sort of implicating the people along with it is a Wolfy tactic. Whatever the case, he is certainly a sharp player, which is a reason why I might prefer to have more time to observe him.

Kath - appeared in her typical style. The one thing that just pinged my radar once was her vote for Morsul, because choosing him of all is something a Wolf with little time to spare could easily focus on - if he is innocent, an easy target (see below). But then again, she had to vote somebody, and her reasoning about the 180-turn is valid.

Lommy - her first posts were somewhat noncommital, but later she started posting some good observations. She is also one of the people who mentioned Morsul multiple times, which, if Morsul is innocent, may be jumping on an easy target - see above and below. Otherwise however seems like normal Lommy.

Lottie - seems very... ponderful (that's a word, I just made it). On first sight did not rub me wrong in any way, is a bit under my radar, but that can be hopefully rectified in the future.

Morsul - he was also in the centre of things, he had some back-and-forths with others. Made some points without giving explanation, such as randomly saying that Hui is "the least suspicious", but him then switching so suddenly makes me think a Wolf would not act so brazenly. Plus, Morsul often tends to rub people the wrong way. That in fact makes me alert about those who jump at him easily, because if innocent, he could be easy prey. That is not to say the 180 is not noteworthy, but exactly that raises the question if it isn't too blunt for a Wolf.

Pitch - whereas I am grateful for him reminding me of stuff I forgot (and embarrassed for him doing so), I find his acrobatics around it just puzzling (as in, firstly, as an argument it's horribly meta and I am not even sure what it should mean, and secondly and more importantly, I am not even sure Pitch knows himself; or at least I am not able to decipher his thought processes). Logical conclusion would be: Cobbler. I am probably going to let this sit and see about him in the future.

Sally - need more posts from her. One appearance with talk about chewing and blood, while sinister, does not make good data for deep analysis.

Soriman - I absolutely hope to see more from him. I am not sure what he means by "Pitch making strange arguments against Huin" - can you perhaps elaborate on this a bit, Soriman? (as in, what in particular do you have in mind, why would you consider it "strange" and how does this fit together, or doesn't, with your own feelings about Hui? I am not entirely sure what were you trying to say there)

EDIT: x-ed with like a billion

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Basically, Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him, while carefully not mentioning any connection between the two, is arguably the dodgiest thing I've seen toDay. Lommy's interpretation of his Hui/Legate speculation as potential stumbling wolf-logic doesn't make him look better, either. It's flimsy, but less so than anything else I've got.

I saw that one coming, and I get how it would seem like a sudden turn, but it wasn't, see my #27. Also, did you notice my subsequent backpedalling? And as for 'carefully not mentioning', would it have made you feel easier about me if I'd said, 'Oh, and btw she sucks for suspecting me?'

Originally Posted by A Little Green

One last thing - I had a quick scroll through the thread, and noticed this:

Nothing suspicious about this in itself, but if Pitch does turn out to be a wolf, I'd take another look at Soriman.

This makes me not want to counter-suspect Greenie (dang) because if she were a wolf she'd know I won't, so writing this would be a waste of bandwidth.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I find his acrobatics around it just puzzling (as in, firstly, as an argument it's horribly meta and I am not even sure what it should mean, and secondly and more importantly, I am not even sure Pitch knows himself

Finally someone who gets me!

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Pitch has made some strange arguments against Huin but I don't believe anyone should read into this.

Because you know Huin isn’t part of your pack?

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

I know there is a deadline but if I am not prompted to vote as per the rules I read somewhere can i abstain from voting? I'd hate to see an innocent villager lynched on account of our misguided voting, who is to say that these creatures will even strike again anyway?

The rules say it. The only good thing or rather less bad thing, this post comes before Sally’s no one vote but it’s notable they’re in lockstep on day one and two vote wise.

121 Sorimon is in Sally’s no read pile

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Appologies for my scarce posts, I should have more time for this game in the coming days.




Of course, everyone can trust me! The meta gaming really gives me a free pass .



I can follow this line of thinking and it does make sense to me, Huin does seem suspicious to me but I do not know if this is just his aggressive playstyle, I feel most people would aggressivley defend their life if they can but Huin also appears (at least to me) to favour shifting blame to others.




Wouldn't it be likely the wolves will follow the first votes on day one? After the first votes wovles can more safely vote without having to hold their vote to save a fellow wolf. If someone voted with a bandwagon there is still safety in the large group.

I can't be certain of anything but I hope Huin is on our side as he seems like a powerful ally.


That said I'm just going to lock in my vote for [high]++Lottie[/highlight] as Huins most likely packmate (if he is one of them) in my mind.

Then there’s this. Just this post and vote stinks to high heaven I like nothing about it. Especially the vote following Sally’s lead seemingly despite suspecting her(Lottie) less than Huin?

I posted in 251 IF my interpretation of the ghost quotes is right Sorimon and Sally are definitely possible packmates. But this post is more speculative. In that post Kath is the last but I can’t commit to that.

So based on their three posts as well as comparing to Sally’s I find them likely packmates. The third could be Kath but again this last point is Extremely speculative.

Xed a bunch

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Kath

Not enough info:
Form
Lottie
Soriman
sally - with a caveat that hiding a wolfy nature under a Cobbler style first post is absolutely a sally way to play the game

Everyone else ... the particular questions I had in my last post point me towards Hui, Morsul and potentially Legate as lines of suspicion.

Hui's latest post (#32) is interesting. Half saying to discount the interplay with Morsul because a bigger deal is being made than it deserved, but then actually continuing the same interplay within said post. I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that. I find Morsul's switch from Hui being least suspicious to potentially wolfy (post 19) more worrisome, particularly because the original statement of being least suspicious didn't seem to have any basis behind it.

So, an early vote from me toDay for the reasons stated above for:

++MORSUL]

My switch is outlined in the post. I considered the first question genuine(not suspicious) considered continued attack of that question suspicious. It’s not deeper.

I’ve been at work so can only really scan and answer posts directed at me specifically. But that’s fine. I’ll look into everyone else before DL.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I like Lommy's implied point that 'the noisy people all look suspicious' is fairly standard TiG material while the quieter people slip by undiscussed. Not sure what to do about it, but I like it.

Well, that is a statement worthy of a captain obvious of movie!Legolas's calibre.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm not quite sure what I'm saying. Something like, if a Legwolf thinks Huiwolf is behaving typically Huiwolvish he may want to pretend bad memory as an excuse for not picking it up. It's not an argument that they must be wolves together, but I think it would kind of make sense psychologically.

"I'm not quite sure what I'm saying" screamed honest innocent to me, but the convoulted argumentation that follows does not.

Originally Posted by Lottie

It is a little strange how much Morsul was focusing on Huin early, to the almost complete exclusion of anyone else. In fact, I don't think Morsul has interacted with or mentioned anyone other than Huin, with his throwaway comment about Boro posting first being the exception that proves the rule. I don't know what to make of it. It's not a great strategy if they're packmates, and he switches between suspicion and trust so quickly that it doesn't suggest any special knowledge - if I had to guess, I would say Morsul is either a wolf and Huin isn't, or Morsul is an ordo with a bit of tunnel vision. Definitely the most suspicious thing to happen thus far, although I acknowledge that that's a low bar to clear at this point in the game.

Tunnel vision is also a fairly convenient strategy for a wolf - if you pick up an innocent as your target, you can keep at it until they die and can meanwhile ignore mentioning your packmates and leaving traces, then wehn the innocent dies you just have to publicly sprinkle ash on yourself for being wrong. That being said, I don't think Morsul fixating on Hui during Day1 when there was little to go on counts as tunnel vision yet, innocent or otherwise.

Originally Posted by Kath

I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that.

I don't see a Hui-Morsul duo as particularly likely either, but I disagree with the latter half of what you're saying: how could Hui's suspicion of Morsul not be half-hearted? It's Day1. There's really not very much to go on. Even for a wolf grasping at straws and trying to bus/incriminate their fellow.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So she suspects Hui because of bad vibes but not really, and Morsul for being touchy, a bit more really but then again... Seeing how Hui and Morsul suspecting each other had been most of the action so far, this feels to me much like a wolf thinking, "Hmm, either of these could become a promising bandwagon but let's not commit just yet."

I do suspect Hui for the bad vibes I'm getting. I'm just second-guessing my suspicion because it is, as I said, only based on "vibes". That's not very much, even for Day1.

As for Morsul, I think his defensiveness is fishy, but especially after seeing Kath's post, I am a little worried about Morsul's claim of always being an easy target becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But then again, they are - alongside with you, Pitch - the people who caught my attention, so what can you do? *throws hands in the air*

Of the later-comers, Kath gives me an innocent vibe but I'm wary of her argumentation and her Morsul vote, and Lottie's commentary on Morsul's tunnel vision seems to be turning into tunnel vision from her part. Which also seems somehow... convenient.

Ah, Form. His anti-Day1 attitude always makes me want to vote for him on Day1. I refuse to give him a pass for reffusing to participate on Day1 just because he doesn't like Day1s. I am aware he does this as both innocent and wolf but it pushes my buttons every time! Like, if you're a wolf, that's not fair play! And if you're innocent stop being silly, we need your contribution! *taking deep breaths in order not to get worked up by this*

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ah, Form. His anti-Day1 attitude always makes me want to vote for him on Day1. I refuse to give him a pass for reffusing to participate on Day1 just because he doesn't like Day1s. I am aware he does this as both innocent and wolf but it pushes my buttons every time! Like, if you're a wolf, that's not fair play! And if you're innocent stop being silly, we need your contribution! *taking deep breaths in order not to get worked up by this*

At the risk of posting again--this isn't failure to participate. I inevitably (LIKE THIS VERY POST) end up participating, but since the participation is all about how the participation doesn't register until after the day has produced results, I get unfairly dinged for saying things by people complaining that I DON'T say things, when other people actually lurk through the entire Day 1 (maybe not even voting). And, since I think it's bad to deliberately lurk--I'm caught between a rock and a hard place here, I know--I end up responding to the Day 1-talk provocation.

Well, here were are again, then. Since it's human nature to always be fighting the last war (or last week's headlines), I suppose I am deeply suspicious of the lurkers and only mildly concerned about anyone who's posting. Perhaps I should take that mentality and say that I'll vote for whomever the most silent Day 1 person is.

[Thinlómien]

Not particularly suspicious of so far
Boro, Greenie, Legate - all seem like their usual selves and have participated without doing anything shady that would have caught my attention (yet), would not vote for them based on what I've seen so far

Flip flop
Kath - my gut is saying innocent, my reason is telling me to keep an eye on her
Morsul - he is rather defensive, but his last post looks better to me. I'm hesitant to suspect him because it seems so knee-jerk

Vaguely suspicious so far
Form - for hiding behind Day1s being futile
Hui - mostly a gut-feeling, something about him seems off
Lottie - for the Morsul tunnel vision after criticising Morsul's tunnel vision
Pitch - his continued "Wolfate is pretending not to remember Wolfesoron's last wolf game" argument just seems odd and convoluted to me, otherwise hard to say

Needs to post more (substance)
Form (yes he's in two places, he deserves it for triggering me about Day1s )
Sally
Soriman


edit: xed with Form, and feeling much better about him. Maybe because he sounds a little apologetic

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

edit: xed with Form, and feeling much better about him. Maybe because he sounds a little apologetic

Well, that's not what I'd have expected at all!

Normally, my crotchety and irritated demeanour as I push the Sisyphusian rock of Day 1-antipthay is to be suspected of being a Wolf for it.

Since Lommy always suspects me, this must mean she's not herself--i.e. a Wolf.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Let me get some Ghost Practice just a Tolkien quotes right?

“ Surely you don't disbelieve the prophecies because you helped bring them about?”

Morsul, if you're innocent please don't be so fatalistic. I think at least half of the people discussing you think you're innocent, and most of the rest are flip-flopping from moment to moment. You haven't actually been done at this point. Who do you suspect, and why?

Lommy doesn't seem to be making me uneasy in their last couple of posts, so that's good.

Form... I don't know. Are you actually taking a stance that it's impossible to read anything off anyone on Day One, despite all the suspicion flying around? Because that seems pretty tenuous for an innocent.

Greenie is back, and what earlier looked like buddying-up now comes over as fairly considering each person's points.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Morsul, if you're innocent please don't be so fatalistic. I think at least half of the people discussing you think you're innocent, and most of the rest are flip-flopping from moment to moment. You haven't actually been done at this point. Who do you suspect, and why?

Ah it was just some dark gallows humor.

As for most suspicious to be perfectly unhelpful everyone is giving off fumbling in the dark vibes and I don’t see any discernible patterns that I usually jump on even if a bit backwards and in a “makes sense in my head and no one else’s” arguably Boro’s rather strong defense of me is counter intuitively a small flag because unless he’s a wolf he wouldn’t be sure I’m an innocent.

Then there’s some chatter about strategies and such that certainly have merit but are based on certain knowledge of the players.

You and Boro top my list. kath feels like it was an easy vote and easy to wiggle out of but it really could be day 1.

This is why people don’t vote day 1.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Form... I don't know. Are you actually taking a stance that it's impossible to read anything off anyone on Day One, despite all the suspicion flying around? Because that seems pretty tenuous for an innocent.

With the exception of the Wolves, Day 1 is Wild Mass Guessing and distinguishing the two--especially when you're playing with people you've played WW with before (possibly many, many times before) is More Wild Mass Guessing until you have Facts: which, unfortunately, is a body count.

That doesn't mean that someone can't luck into a correct answer, but WW is an ever-escalating game of "normally I zig, so I need to zag" and "XXXX seems suspicious, but they always seem suspicious, but it's suspicious that I usually end up not thinking they're suspicious, and it's suspicious that they're aren't suspicious, and even more suspicious that they're a little bit suspicious rather than exact enough suspicious."

Throw in a heavy dose of "I've never played with YYY before, so I have no idea" and you have Day 1.

Although there was a time once--maybe around when the Moon first rose in the West--when I didn't feel thusly about Days 1, that was a long, long time ago.

[A Little Green]

++ Pitchwife

I'm not confident about this one, but it's 2 hours past bedtime for me and I can't stick around any longer. Basically, Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him, while carefully not mentioning any connection between the two, is arguably the dodgiest thing I've seen toDay. Lommy's interpretation of his Hui/Legate speculation as potential stumbling wolf-logic doesn't make him look better, either. It's flimsy, but less so than anything else I've got.

I'm not comfortable voting for Morsul because he does act more like a frustrated ordo at the moment, and if indeed innocent, would make an entirely too convenient Day 1 bandwagon. I may, however, want to revisit the subject with a fresher brain toMorrow if I'm still here.

One last thing - I had a quick scroll through the thread, and noticed this:

Originally Posted by Soriman

Pitch has made some strange arguments against Huin but I don't believe anyone should read into this.

Nothing suspicious about this in itself, but if Pitch does turn out to be a wolf, I'd take another look at Soriman.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Pitch - his continued "Wolfate is pretending not to remember Wolfesoron's last wolf game" argument just seems odd and convoluted to me, otherwise hard to say

I give you "odd and convoluted", but you realise it's only "continued" because you and Greenie asked me for clarification and I replied, right? (I'd still like to hear if Legate has anything to say about the matter.)

Continuing speculation about the Hui/Morsul altercation (doesn't that sound like an episode title from The Big Band Theory?), I like Boro's reply to Lottie in #39. Actually make that 'I really like Boro so far, period'. And I'd laugh my head off if we had a pack of any three of Hui, Lommy, Lottie and Kath, although I suspect it's not quite as easy - there's probably a wolf steering meticulously clear of the whole affair. Also I'm ironically flip-flopping about Lommy, her last couple of posts sound more innocentish than before. So, could it be Lottie, Kath and X?

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

, I am a little worried about Morsul's claim of always being an easy target becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
*

Let me get some Ghost Practice just a Tolkien quotes right?

“ Surely you don't disbelieve the prophecies because you helped bring them about?”

[Morsul the Dark]

So looking through the votes and reasonings the oddest one, to me, is Lommie’s vote which happens to overlap with Legate’s look at second votes thought.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I do suspect Hui for the bad vibes I'm getting. I'm just second-guessing my suspicion because it is, as I said, only based on "vibes". That's not very much, even for Day1.

As for Morsul, I think his defensiveness is fishy, but especially after seeing Kath's post, I am a little worried about Morsul's claim of always being an easy target becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

++Huinesoron

I don't think anything would make me kick myself more than if I caught a wolfy vibe from him TWICE and let him off the hook because "maybe it's just his playing style" TWICE and he was a wolf BOTH TIMES.


edit: xed with everyone

So while not directly contradictory I do have to say that this stands out to me. Lommy(I’ll decide if it’s Lommy or Lommie at some point not this post.) talks about me accidentally bandwagonning myself, fair enough, but then adds the first second vote based on vibes for Huin. Truth is though while this is odd to me they were pretty consistent on Huin from the start. So that’s a thing.

Edit: just adding I just got called and will be doing a later shift so I might be voting early since I’ll be at work during DL and can’t guarantee I can sneak away. I may or may not have been told to get off my phone Wednesday :rolls eyes:

[Boromir88]

So Today's conspiracy theory post is centering on Legate.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am not entirely sure how Boro's comment constitutes as "launching a Day 1s are pointless-debate".

Now Hui seems to be poking around inquisitively overall, which is an activity that by itself can serve both good and evil purposes, so if this is just a part of that, whatever; but the formulation (the not-outright-accusing, yet suggestive "I find it a little suspicious", while putting words into Boro's mouth) does not seem right to me. Even stranger is that Greenie basically repeats the same, which just gives me the vibe of "quoting without checking the source", i.e. having seen Hui slightly suspect Boro and just latch on to that. That would be a very good move for a Wolf to pull.

Overall it's just weird because I don't read it as Boro "launching" any "debate" on "Day 1 pointlessness" in the first place.

Clarifications, anyone?

Now yesterday I took this as a good point in Legate's favor. I wasn't attempting to launch a Day 1 debate and he observed that 2 people (Huey and Greenie) made it sound like I was and were attempting to point suspicion my way.

What is interesting to note here is that Greenie is lynched and now confirmed innocent. Then today...

Originally Posted by Legate

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

So again, Legate narrows the discussion to 2 people (the ones who made the 2nd votes for someone yesterday). Those 2 people are Lommy and Huey. This makes the 2nd time Legate's steering to Huey + someone, but he offers up an extra point in Huey's favor that he was "voting to prevent a bandwagon against himself"

Now if I were to believe in conspiracy theories, it looks like Legate and Huey are packmates.

Huey's driving and getting the suspicions stirring against innocent people. Legate is narrowing in on Huey + 1 other, to softly suspect Huey and fall back on as a wolf-on-wolf vote, but trying to put the attention on the other person (Greenie Day 1 and now Lommy today).

Edit: crossed with Lommy

[Pitchwife]

Actually, mind you, I'm not convinced that either of Legate and Hui has to be a wolf. So far I'm more suspicious of Lommy because of #24:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hui is giving me vague bad vibes, which is giving me headache. I mean, I got bad vibes from him in the last game too, but I gave him the benefit of doubt because we hadn't played together before - and then he actually turned out to be a wolf. So the million dollar question is: is he a wolf again or is he just the next Eönwë whom I find super suspicious every time regardless of his role? And if I'm tempted to give him the benefit of doubt and waiting and seeing, am I just making the same mistake as last time? Ughhhh.

...< agrees with Legate about Hui/Boro, Greenie herself but when does she not > ...

Morsul's touchiness in #22 is the biggest individual red flag I've seen toDay so far. He implies Hui is suspecting him because his "honest answer" to Hui's question was not satisfactory, but what Hui is actually suspecting him for is being so touchy when questioned. Odd, but not necessarily out of character for an Ordul the Dark either.

So she suspects Hui because of bad vibes but not really, and Morsul for being touchy, a bit more really but then again... Seeing how Hui and Morsul suspecting each other had been most of the action so far, this feels to me much like a wolf thinking, "Hmm, either of these could become a promising bandwagon but let's not commit just yet."