TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

As for out of nowhere? Opinions based on day 1z

You say that, but you changed several of those opinions without acknowledging that in your list post. You can see where that comes off as odd for those of us who remember what those stated opinions were yesterDay! Your admitting that you backed off on your Day 1 Huin suspicion helps a lot with that impression, but any time someone has a significant opinion change overNight, that's going to ping radars - did you and a packmate decide to make a different play? Were you part of a conversation that changed how you're thinking about the game and you didn't quite realize we wouldn't have had that context? Or did you just get a good night's sleep and were able to look back with a clearer head? I really appreciate you clarifying - your clarification sounded more like an ordo who had just overreacted yesterDay and less like a sinister, wolfish conspiracy, which is what I was fearing.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

did you and a packmate decide to make a different play? ... and less like a sinister, wolfish conspiracy, which is what I was fearing.

Oh I think we both know I’m not disciplined enough for that.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry I couldn't catch up yesterDay; work has been eating me alive.

Speaking of eaten alive, why Form? My egocentric guess is that it was done to throw suspicion my way, but the joke is on you, wolves! I can be suspicious based solely upon my schedule, it seems.

Back shortly with a little listy. Fair warning, tomorrow will be busy for me as well, and I'm working late, but I'll be on mobile with thoughts (and a vote!) later in the Day.

[satansaloser2005]

Boro being phantom-esque with his scheming toDay makes me feel good about him. Something about it feels genuine, and while I've been wrong about him before (don't hurt me, my prince!) I think my radar is correctly calibrated here.

I have the same gut feeling about Pitch, after his reaction to my (non)vote yesterDay. Unless he does something nasty, I think I trust him.

I'm always suspicious of Morsul because he is, somewhat like myself, a loose cannon. I'm not getting feelings one way or the other on him yet, so I'll leave him be for at least tonight and will revisit in the morning.

Speaking of Morsul, kind of, Lottie seems to be picking a fight with him. Rather, picking a suspicion with him. I don't necessarily disagree with what Pop is saying, but it seems more aggressive than she might be as an ordo. Pinging my radar again, this time the wolfy kind.

I get no read on Kath, which is normally safe, but again, I'll have to revisit later.

Other non-reads include Hui, Sori, and Lommy, although in her case, I'm suspicious of my lack of suspicion.

Last but not least, Legate is always evil and must die. I jest. I have no read on him either, but I'm sure that will rapidly change once he wakes up and posts some more.


So to put it in a quicker format....

Would currently vote: Lottie (for aggression), Lommy (gut instinct)
No idea: Hui, Sori, Legate
Would currently not vote: Boro, Pitch, Morsul, Kath

[satansaloser2005]

Welp, that double post (now triple, sorry) means it's time for me to go to bed. Hopefully our European friends will have a lot to say during my night and I'll wake up to some posts to play with. Until then, nighty night!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Lottie's the most off, just her posting all day is not what I've come to expect. She's typically a bigger ruffler than me, and right up there with Huey. But all day the responses are tame and reserved like here..."Ok I get it why you suspect me, but Kath?" And then misinterpreted why Pitch was suspicious of Kath.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of Morsul, kind of, Lottie seems to be picking a fight with him. Rather, picking a suspicion with him. I don't necessarily disagree with what Pop is saying, but it seems more aggressive than she might be as an ordo. Pinging my radar again, this time the wolfy kind.

This is why I never bother to try to play a certain way or act "normal", no one can agree on how I play "normally" anyway. Am I normally aggressive? Am I normally a ruffler? Chalk this one up to the duality of man.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I just spent like an hour by analysing the votes, so I'm gonna do this first. But before that, regarding Form's death...

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Obviously they voted Sally which for me is a predicament. I do think her initial post of “around but tired” then just a non commital “no vote vote no time” post. I find that frustrating and easily a wolffish submarine tactic. HOWEVER, the night kill obvious points at Sally which makes me think it’s too obvious it’s her and therefor not her. But also it could be a move set on making that argument and it IS her.

This actually is a thought process I can more or less follow and agree with. But I even more agree with Boro on that obviously, the WWs would be interested in getting rid of the Seer first. That - unless they are acting in some really unorthodox manner - basically means that a) they thought Form was the Seer, or b) by way of negation there was nobody they thought more likely to be the Seer. Which is something to consider too.

Otherwise: voting. Okay, let's have the list for convenience:

Kath > Morsul
Greenie > Pitch
Morsul > hS
Lommy > hS [2]
Legate > Greenie
Huinesoron > Greenie [2]
Form > Sally
Boro > Lottie
Lottie > Greenie [3]
Sally > no vote (thus making it clear at this point that her vote wasn't following)
Pitch > hS [3]
(not voted: Soriman)

It is quite interesting that the first couple of votes (Kath's for Morsul and Greenie's for Pitch) were eventually completely forgotten. From purely analytical point of view, in the small numbers in the village, I think we actually had a "healthy spread" of votes (meaning, not just one huge bandwagon for one person, and not even two bandwagons - there were two, but "big" here meant three votes, and there were votes for four completely different people still).

I actually think this is "healthy" in the sense that it does not show the, hum hmm, "herd mentality", and individual votes are more... well, individual; therefore saying more about those who cast them. That is not to say that the spread does not make it an ideal place for throwaway votes.

Kath and Greenie voted early, so it was hardly throwaway; in fact, with Morsul being discussed, Kath might have expected him to gather more. The follow-up possibility is that if one of the first voted (i.e. Morsul or Pitch) was a Wolf, the steering away from these completely later might have been the result of a specific effort of other Wolves to steer clear of one or them (or, in the most extreme case, both).

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

Also knowing Greenie being innocent, Lottie's vote which "sealed the deal" might have been a way of Lotwolf to save a fellow Huiwolf from the noose. But I think a scenario where Hui and Lottie are both Wolves who voted in order to save Hui would be almost to good to be true. Of course, it is perfectly possible. But Lottie doing this specifically in order to save Hui requires multiple premises to be true first.

Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes, Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for Hui. And that was at the point when Greenie was leading, and Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.

The one visibly "throwaway" vote is Boro's (and Form's would be too), posted at the time when there were two "bandwagons" (the quotation marks are intentional, because they were two votes large at that point - on the other hand, again, like I said, in a village of this size that is already something...) and multiple other votes he could have tied for 2, and not so many people left to vote that one could reasonably assume casting one vote for Lottie would get her lynched. So, yes, that is one thing that raises my alertness when it comes to Boro.

That is more or less it when it comes to the votes.

With all this being said, I think that the words of Form from yesterDay have quite a big of merit and I would consider looking at those who were (or are) quieter and slipping under the radar. It is good to see sally around and posting, I hope also more will follow from Soriman.

More thoughts later, I will be back. *cue in Terminator theme*

[Thinlómien]

Just popping in to say that today is a terrible day to have a Day for me - I have a big deadline at work and I'm seeing friends in the evening. But I'll try to make a comment post on my lunch/coffee break(s) and I'll be around for the last few hours before the DL (might stay up until the DL since it's Friday).

As for the recent events -

The wolves killed Form?? Why? I think he only grumbled about Day1s and people not participating? Maybe a safe no trace kill? I'll see if I have time to have a better look at his posts, but my first reaction to these news is confusion.

And you guys lynched Greenie after I went to sleep??? You come into my house and lynch my sister?! When she didn't do anything suspicious?? Dishonour on you, dishonour on your cow! Seriously though, I am quite baffled by this too, as Greenie seemed her normal innocent to me yesterDay, and she's not the type of player who usually gets lynched on Day1. (Yeah, I don't think it's fair some people gravitate towards getting lynched early regardless of their role, and some don't, but it's a thing. Someone like Greenie getting lynched on Day1 without a clear reason - I mean I might be biased because I didn't suspect her - makes me raise my eyebrows a little.) I will try to look at the lynch too.

[Huinesoron]

Just noticed this from earlier toDay (emphasis mine):

Originally Posted by Boromir88

...I didn't mean "giving direction to the ghosts" (as in the person that is selected to return as a ghost) but "giving direction to the dead players on what person they should vote for today as a way of giving the living information."

Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?

With that in mind, I took a look at this:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That's an oddly specific and seems too narrow a net you're casting in your vote-analysis Legate. I agree with the conclusion that you really can't say there was a "bandwagon" with any of the votes yesterday and I also like Day 1s where there is a good spread of who receives votes. A true Day 1 bandwagon, in our small band would have given us little in analyzing Day 1 votes.

I happily accepted the 'narrow net' comment at face value on my first readover, but that's the point of a good wolf misrepresentation: it's close enough to true that people will remember the misdirect better than what it's purportedly summarising. In fact, looking at Legate's post #124, he not only discusses me and Lommy as 'second voters', but also highlights Pitch's vote as "sinister... potentially throwaway", and highlights "the one visibly throwaway" vote as... Boro, noting that it "raises my alertness when it comes to Boro".

So Boro's comment, which reductively summarises Legate's "net" as catching just me and Lommy, doesn't just ignore his comments on Boro - it strongly implies that they didn't exist, and looks very much like a wolfish attempt to memory-hole the suspicion.

The fact that this has now led into a self-titled Legate-hS "conspiracy theory" - didn't Pitch have one of those yesterDay? - does nothing to take away from that impression. (And yes, "if I were to believe in conspiracy theories" is another wonderful way for a wolf!Boro to put an idea out there without quite claiming to believe it... deniability, always deniability.)

hS

[Huinesoron]

So far today I suspect Pitch and Boro, plus Sally on procedural grounds (ie, if Form's death was an attempt to get the Seer then Sally is a wolf). It occurs to me that Pitch's late vote was a good way to let Greenie - who could have been a Seer who saw wolf!Pitch - get lynched while making Pitch look like he was trying to stop it.

I semi-clear Morsul on similar procedural grounds - if Sally isn't a wolf, then there's at least two people wolf!Morsul could see as potential Seers.

I was going to look at the other people who've posted today, but only have time for one. Lottie makes some solid points in their early Day 2 discussion with Morsul. Sally sees this as more aggressive than normal, while Boro (#128) "agrees with Sally", but then describes it as "the Lottie I'm most familiar with". I think that inconsistency (ie, is it too aggressive, or normally aggressive?) says more about Boro than it does about Lottie, so I'm not suspicious of Lottie at this time.

Still need to look at Lommy and Legate, and I hope we hear more from Kath and Soriman soon!

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm at work, so more like a quick chime in. I should however have considerably more time couple of hours before DL.

Some generic thoughts:

As far as toDay goes, thus far, I am thinking Morsul comes across as genuinely trying to unravel things.

Sally seems to have lots of her thoughts based on "gut feeling", which is something one can't really verify, even though she is a lot more specific in regards to Morsul and Lottie. So that is at least some data - I would however prefer to see more. Her first post toDay came across as genuine, the second one was more all over the place.

Hui is very much active again, I find at least that he is giving things a thought. That said, his speculation about the Ghost and Seer in #127 sounds almost like he's given it too much of a thought, perhaps overNight (and then saying "he just remembered it"). But it may just be a byproduct of thinking things from very many angles, which I would understand.

Lommy's first post toDay seemed rather contentless, although that may be attributed to lack of time. The second one was however pretty analytical, to the point of some complicated constructions of Wolf packs; but she brings up good points about Sally and Lottie.

As for Lottie herself, I can't really make any clear image of her myself, the radar is blurry (and has remained so for a while). She is contributing and seems to bring up constructive points, but with what intent I can't decipher.

I am becoming increasingly unclear, if not suspicious about what Boro is up to, because while yesterDay I overall leaned towards trusting what he was doing, toDay I am increasingly dubious about what his role in everything is. It may be influenced partly by his throwaway vote yesterDay and lastly the conspiracy theory post - I cannot tell whether that is supposed to be a mental exercise or whether he is subtly trying to cast suspicion around. Besides, speaking of that:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

This though is just very narrow and focused on only 2 people, Lommy and Huey (those who made the 2nd vote for either Greenie/Huey). Why do you ignore the 1st votes for Greenie or Huey? I'm not buying the "1st votes for someone aren't suspicious because it's still creating an alternative and thus the 2nd votes are more suspicious because those votes got a potential bandwagon going."

I mean I see you are the first vote for Greenie, so regardless of your alignment you're not going to suspect y ourself, but what about Morsul being the 1st vote for Huey?

I have never said that we should look only at these and disregard all the other votes (and I think a large share of my post was devoted to considering others, Morsul included). And you are right that Morsul started the bandwagon, and I am not contradicting that - even though I daresay that with having already a vote at that point, whether he is a Wolf or innocent, he would have likely acted similarly.

Anyway, typing this took a while as I was called off in the middle a few times - I am going to leave it at this now because I may end up being interrupted for an unknown amount of time any moment again, but as I said, I'll be around later after my work ends. I'd especially like to see Souriman and others who haven't appeared or posted much yet. The "lurkers" should not indeed be just left lurking (even though I think essentially everyone has been posting now).

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and both Hueys

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?

Exactly, it's useless, so we shouldn't waste any time trying to milk the Dead for info rather than try to catch wolves. (Does the name Macalaure mean anyting to you?) Isn't that just what Boro said?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.

If we voted Sally for being quiet on Day 1 every time it happens, Sally would never make it past Day 1 unless it conveniently fell on a weekend. I don't think it's fair to vote someone for something out of their control, especially because we know Sally does get more talkative later in the game and when she's not as busy. I would be willing to vote a "lurker" if it's someone who isn't posting much or is sticking to banter or whatnot even though they are clearly around and keeping up.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack

No offense, but if I was packmates with Huin and Sally, I would never be that blatant about not wanting either of them to be lynched! I didn't comment on Sally's list at all, I didn't "give her a pass", I just didn't comment on it. I don't have to comment on every list post that doesn't have strong feelings about people. Yours stood out to me because the two people you didn't have strong feelings about were people who had posted a lot, and you had stronger feelings about quieter people, which struck me as odd.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Speaking of turns (although this is rather a quicksandy shift):

So, Lottie would have liked to vote two of the four people she'd earlier said she didn't want to vote, but with no support forthcoming, she ended up voting a third of the same four people because she suspected her more than the fourth. What happened?

Let me explain what happened using your own words:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

It was primarily frustration that she hadn't voted for anybody, but truth is I felt more confident that Greenie was innocent than I felt about you, and I'd have liked to save her, so yes, it was also frustration that the cavalry was failing to show up and my own vote ended up being effectively throwaway. If the choice had been between you and somebody else my vote might have been different.

I felt more confident about Huin than I did about Greenie. I strongly suspect both of them were/are innocent, and the wolves were sitting back breathing a sigh of relief. Obviously I could be wrong about Huin, but we were in exactly the same situation - we slightly trusted one over the other - I just got my vote in first. If you'd voted first, I would have been sitting there waiting for the cavalry.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also, Lottie, since you didn't think sally or Sori would vote at all, if you were concerned for your own life you could have voted me (not that that would have been any better), and by the Rule of First you would have been safe. So whom were you really trying to save, yourself or Hui?

Huin, obviously. I also wanted to vote early to ensure I would be safe, regardless of any last minute bandwagon, but the primary motivation was that I trusted Huin slightly more than Greenie. I am genuinely surprised you're the one harping on this, Pitch - the two of us were in exactly the same boat, we only differed by which person we slightly trusted more.

[Kath]

I haven't made it to toDay yet as I forgot how much I missed between voting and deadline yesterDay! Standing out to me from that is Hui.

As I read, it struck me that a lot of Hui's suspicion of Greenie was based on her seemingly taking other people suspicions and reiterating them. But in terms of Hui's suspicion of Greenie, they first agree with Legate that Greenie's comment about 'Boro launching the Day 1s are pointless debate' was overstating it and then use Legate's reasons against Greenie again to further suspect Greenie. So ... pot/kettle? Then we get:

Greenie is back, and what earlier looked like buddying-up now comes over as fairly considering each person's points.

Which seems to suggest Hui was then feeling better about Greenie, but then followed by Hui saying Greenie worrying about possibly not being alive the next Day smacked of a guilty conscience. I have to disagree with that. She was being talked about a fair amount, and I think that's a fear anybody has in WW.

Actually all the way through yesterDay Hui seems to be sort of following Legate's lead. Even in post #70 Legate suggests Greenie as a vote and Hui then suggests that would be a vote they'd be comfortable with.

I don't know that I'm saying there's a Legate/Hui wolf-pack here, but it struck me as odd.

[Thinlómien]

I have 15 minutes, so I'm going to look at Form's 9 posts:

#5, #44, #48, #52, #58 are mostly grumbling about Day1's. He was perhaps a little baited into this by Boro, and later, by yours truly, AND last by Hui. #52 also includes a joke (I presume) suspicion of me because I'm not finding his Day1 grumbling suspicious (anymore).

#61 argues for Hui's innocence while acknowledging he might be making a terrible mistake. This makes Hui look a bit better to me - I guess the wolves could have interpreted this post as seer!Form defending his known innocent? (I mean obviously Wolfesoron could have also picked Form as a no trace kill, thinking that would make him look good, but that's getting a little convoluted. If Form's death has anything to do with Hui, it's more likely that he's innocent.)

#78 ranks people based on how much they've contributed so far, saying:

I'm probably going to vote "too quiet."

Leans towards Sally, saying:

On the basis of this very quick list, I would likely aim for either Sally or Kath under this rubric and on the basis of nothing more than gut and the ill-digested remnant's of last year's game, I would lean Sally.

Which, I suppose, is kind of an honour. If I may refer to events of the First Age, time was that folks like Morm or Saucepan would be lynched Day 1 nearly every game "just to make sure" early. So... you're welcome, Sally?

Now this doesn't look like seerish suspicion to me, but whoever said it looks so unseerish maybe Sallywolf thought Formseer was trying to masquarade his suspicion of her as random while it was actually dream-based. Possible, but I'm not sure Sally of all people would be this paranoid as a wolf. She seems more happy go lucky and reckless usually. But yeah, also echoing whoever said that Form's death is one more reason to hope for more presence from Sally toDay. I'm sure I'm not the only one concerned about her flying under the radar, even if she has good RL reasons for her silence.

#84 speculates about a Sally/Lottie wolf combo, but discards his own suspicion

#93, vote post, quoted in full:

The deadline is coming up and we don't have a definitive bandwaggon yet... but Hui and Greenie are frontrunners. I don't particularly suspect either, which doesn't help deciding if you should save either. If I wait any longer, a vote for the Lurkers is even worse than a vote now, so...

++Sally

This makes me think the wolves didn't think he was a seer who dreamed of an innocent Hui, unless you apply the same kind of "masquerading your seer dream as casual and lumping your dream target with another player in order to further hide it" logic that I said about a Sallywolf dream earlier. Anyway the wolves couldn't have thought he dreamed of both wolf-Sally and innocent-Hui, anyway.

Conclusions: ...yeah, not much to conclude. Maybe I'm a little more concerned about Sally and a little less concerned about Hui, but I don't think Form was very likely killed as a potential seer based on what he said about other players. I think it was more likely a no trace kill (with the side effect of implicating an innocent Sally? would the wolves make a no trace kill that actually implicates one of their own?) or because Form pinged the wolves' gifted radar for some reason I can't see.


edit: xed with Hui

[Boromir88]

On my lunch, so only a chance to respond to something directly. Will be able to return in 4-ish hours and then around until the DL.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?

Hmm...am I detecting at "let me distract Boro by trying to create an argument over something that has no bearing on who he suspects or plans to vote for." Thus derailing the day's conversation about Boro saying he would ignore any plans to direct the dead thread vote, instead of actually debating suspects and lynching a wolf today?

I think I do detect an attempted distraction. So, sorry Huey, won't engage in a conversation that looks like you're trying to derail and argue with me about something I said I was going to ignore.

What I will argue about though is Legate's vote analysis:

Originally Posted by Huey

I happily accepted the 'narrow net' comment at face value on my first readover, but that's the point of a good wolf misrepresentation: it's close enough to true that people will remember the misdirect better than what it's purportedly summarising. In fact, looking at Legate's post #124, he not only discusses me and Lommy as 'second voters', but also highlights Pitch's vote as "sinister... potentially throwaway", and highlights "the one visibly throwaway" vote as... Boro, noting that it "raises my alertness when it comes to Boro".

So Boro's comment, which reductively summarises Legate's "net" as catching just me and Lommy, doesn't just ignore his comments on Boro - it strongly implies that they didn't exist, and looks very much like a wolfish attempt to memory-hole the suspicion.

You're right in that post he mentions my vote as a throwaway as mildly suspicious and Pitch's was "sinister." Not sure I like that comment very much. Pitch's vote is a throwaway in that it wasn't going to change the outcome, Greenie had already reached 3 votes first, but I don't know how that makes it "sinister."

But my "narrow net" comment is about how he waves away the other people who voted for Huey and Greenie. He sort of waves away the 1st votes (his and Morsul) under the "1 vote doesn't make a bandwagon, so the 1st votes were people offering more alternatives." And focuses the scrutiny on the people who made the 2nd votes (Lommy and Huey)...which as noted in my conspiracy post. It's the 2nd time that Legate has seemed to direct the scrutiny on "Huey + one other"

The reason it's a conspiracy is because I think Legate looks the worst out of the two (him and Huey). So, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Legate would simply attach himself to an innocent Huey to keep a smaller list of suspects.

Edit: crossed with Legate twice, have to be away though. Will return in 4ish hours
Edit 2: Changed the 2nd quote, I mistakenly assigned it to Legate. So corrected it to Huey