TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?

Exactly, it's useless, so we shouldn't waste any time trying to milk the Dead for info rather than try to catch wolves. (Does the name Macalaure mean anyting to you?) Isn't that just what Boro said?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.

If we voted Sally for being quiet on Day 1 every time it happens, Sally would never make it past Day 1 unless it conveniently fell on a weekend. I don't think it's fair to vote someone for something out of their control, especially because we know Sally does get more talkative later in the game and when she's not as busy. I would be willing to vote a "lurker" if it's someone who isn't posting much or is sticking to banter or whatnot even though they are clearly around and keeping up.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack

No offense, but if I was packmates with Huin and Sally, I would never be that blatant about not wanting either of them to be lynched! I didn't comment on Sally's list at all, I didn't "give her a pass", I just didn't comment on it. I don't have to comment on every list post that doesn't have strong feelings about people. Yours stood out to me because the two people you didn't have strong feelings about were people who had posted a lot, and you had stronger feelings about quieter people, which struck me as odd.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Speaking of turns (although this is rather a quicksandy shift):

So, Lottie would have liked to vote two of the four people she'd earlier said she didn't want to vote, but with no support forthcoming, she ended up voting a third of the same four people because she suspected her more than the fourth. What happened?

Let me explain what happened using your own words:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

It was primarily frustration that she hadn't voted for anybody, but truth is I felt more confident that Greenie was innocent than I felt about you, and I'd have liked to save her, so yes, it was also frustration that the cavalry was failing to show up and my own vote ended up being effectively throwaway. If the choice had been between you and somebody else my vote might have been different.

I felt more confident about Huin than I did about Greenie. I strongly suspect both of them were/are innocent, and the wolves were sitting back breathing a sigh of relief. Obviously I could be wrong about Huin, but we were in exactly the same situation - we slightly trusted one over the other - I just got my vote in first. If you'd voted first, I would have been sitting there waiting for the cavalry.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also, Lottie, since you didn't think sally or Sori would vote at all, if you were concerned for your own life you could have voted me (not that that would have been any better), and by the Rule of First you would have been safe. So whom were you really trying to save, yourself or Hui?

Huin, obviously. I also wanted to vote early to ensure I would be safe, regardless of any last minute bandwagon, but the primary motivation was that I trusted Huin slightly more than Greenie. I am genuinely surprised you're the one harping on this, Pitch - the two of us were in exactly the same boat, we only differed by which person we slightly trusted more.

[Morsul the Dark]

I’ll be around for about 45 minutes on lunch break. I might be forced to vote at the end since it is quite busy. I hate voting early.

Lottie and Sally are my top choices Lottie for her vote and behavior as outlined before. Sally for decided no vote along with Form’s night kill.

Huin is next but a far third mostly based on Lottie’s vote which is out of their control so not solid.

I feel like we’d get more information from a LottieWolf than a SallyWolf

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I feel like we’d get more information from a LottieWolf than a SallyWolf

If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

I feel this. Definitely has frustrated ordo vibes. Also could be frustrated at saving a pack mate just to be thrown under the bus by other wolves. I don’t think there’s been a lack of suspects today.

Sally and Huin are on my radar. Legate is on others pitch features in others.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok, this will probably bite me if it’s wrong, I feel Lottie is a highly frustrated Ordo based on her last post. And I’ve been there. And since I can’t guarantee I’ll be back before DL

++Sally

Not only is she my second in line suspect if she is a wolf and I help her bandwagon an Ordo that won’t do anyone any good.

Lottie I really hope your an Ordo. Otherwise you get an Oscar

Xed Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Well I didn't expect that. Fair. I mean, wrong, but fair.

I can't do much else toDay. I need to vote.

++Lottie

[Huinesoron]

Back but on my phone, which doesn't make seeing the bigger picture easy, but I'll try.

Pitch has replied to my questions, and their answers make me feel somewhat better. Their later posts don't - one basically accuses Lottie of changing opinion over Day 1, which, well yeah, while the other is repeating my point to Boro and trying to turn it into an attack on me. Last minute add-on: neither does their repeating Lommy's "Seers don't look random" argument against suspecting Sally.

Boro has also replied, and does not make me feel better. One half is 'I'm ignoring your accusation' (over 2 paragraphs) and the other is 'I know Legate talked about other people but I don't think it counts'. His later post ends by claiming Legate is suspicious for calling a vote 'sinister', which, it's TiG. Sometimes things look evil. I don't know if it's the phone, the hour, or BoroWolf, but the rest of his case just feels like trying to drown us in names.

Lottie hasn't done anything which looks wolfy; as far as I can tell the arguments are "they just Feel Bad", and "they changed their mind on Day 1". Also a touch of "they saved hS", which is nice, but I don't see not finding me evil as necessarily a wolfish tell.

Morsul is a lot more grounded now the action's not on them. That may not be a good thing - I think I speculated "frustrated wolf" yesterDay, which would obviously not be true toDay - but overall they look better.

Sally is going quite hard at Lottie based on feel (and has now voted accordingly) , and saying Pitch is good based on feel. I guess that's just how they operate? Not really good or bad, but convenient if a wolf. As is the curious lack of discussion about the whole "Did Wolf!Sally kill Form?" question.

Kath is here and looks reasonable. I mean, I know that Morsul and Greenie were sitting on my suspicions list all Day 1 (along with Lommy for a while), with Greenie only slipping off momentarily, but I don't know how well it came over in my posts, so.

Legate is... yeah, people are right that I've agreed with them a few times. I think we think and post in similar ways. I haven't read anything that says wolf, but their very reasonableness means I'm still wary.

Lommy in #136 makes a weird-sounding claim that WolfSally wouldn't have thought Form was a Seer because the vote and justification 'didn't seem like Seerish suspicion'. Which, a) a Seer who dreamed a wolf doesn't suspect, but more importantly b) a Seer who thought they could kill their dreamed wolf by making it look random would surely do that rather than going "I SEE that Sally is a wolf, do you SEE what I mean".

Soriman is absent. I'd really like to see what they have to say.

At this point I find Boro most suspicious in isolation, but either Pitch or (to a lesser extent) Lommy in conjunction with a wolf Sally.

(xed with Kath)

hS

[Kath]

Day 2 then:

Boro

If they were going with the "no trail kill" and thus that's why Form was targeted that doesn't make much sense. Form was pretty wishy-washy in who he suspected, but he did leave a trail. If they were going "no trail" I would think sally or Soriman would have been the choice, because Form certainly did list people so he did leave a trail.

Yes, but some of the people on said list were sally and Soriman because he was talking about the lurkers, so I'm not quite sure what you're meaning here. Thinks Pitch's vote for Hui was throwaway given sally no-voted and Soriman was unlikely to get a vote in so Greenie was going to be lynched. I actually think voting Greenie 'knowing' she was going to be lynched would have been more throw away. Seems to 'clear' sally based on gut feeling about her posts. Mentions Lottie is being more aggressive toDay but doesn't seem clear on whether that's good or bad. Disagrees with Legate's voting analysis focus, but doesn't mention who then from the votes he thinks suspicion should point towards. Proposes a Legate/Hui pack. My earlier post about Hui/Legate was kind of along similar lines, but because it seems so obvious that Hui is kind of following after Legate's lead, I think it feels less likely that they would be in kahoots.

Huinesoron - spent some time questioning Pitch as they didn't feel that Pitch's previous statements on Greenie then matched his later comments. I can sort of see what they mean given the quotes they've used. Notes that Boro has cheerfully disregarded Legate's additional focus on Pitch and Boro when he discussed Legate's 'narrow' analysis of the voting. That is a good point. Suspects Pitch for his vote (I disagree) and sally due to Form's death (I agree).

Legate - focused on the voting and notes that Lommy and Hui were the 'pushers' of the two wagons, Pitch's vote was throwaway (I disagree as mentioned elsewhere) and Boro who avoided the wagons. Then further develops suspicion of Boro for misrepresenting his voting analysis (as pointed out also by Hui).

Lommy - proposes a Lottie/sally/Hui pack because she feels Lottie rather let sally off the hook and then the way she spoke about Hui in Day 1. I think the attitude toward sally more comes from RL rather than in-game, so I'm not sure I agree with this. Analyses Form and ends up with suspicion of sally.

Loslote - similar sally question post. Explains her vote for Greenie - seems to make sense to me. Greenie and Hui were garnering the most suspicion and possible votes at the time. She feels that Morsul's list post seems to have unfounded suspicions of some people, while seeming to give others an unexplained pass. I do agree that the decisions aren't clearly explained, and I think that's what led to a lot of the debate yesterDay about Morsul as it seemed as though they were flipping between finding particularly Hui innocent one moment and guilty the next without it being very clear why.

Morsul - debating the sally question in much the same way as I did. I'm still of the Occam's razor school of thought on that one. Wondering why Lottie chose to vote between Greenie/Hui rather than going with her prior suspicions, and suggests it was for self preservation. I'm not quite following the logic there? I don't think anyone else had suggested they'd vote Lottie at the time. List post is interesting in that almost each person they comment on gets the treatment of suspicious but not a wolf which doesn't really follow. Not quite sure what they're saying about Lommy's vote in post #131?

Pitch - questions Lottie's vote and suggests she was trying to save Hui. I'm not quite sure where he was going within the post (#142) as apart from himself going from not-vote to possible-vote, I thought Lottie's earlier explanation for her vote was fairly clear.

Sally - if Lottie is going to go after Morsul for wishy-washy lists, then I'll expect the same intensity towards sally's in post #121. Beyond saying Boro and Pitch seem innocent, everyone else gets the 'could be ... but maybe' treatment. Thinks Pitch makes good points about Lottie and would vote for her. She'd earlier mentioned that Lottie was quite aggressive, maybe more so than she'd be as an ordo, so this is consistent at least.

Soriman - have they posted? If so, I didn't note anything as I read through.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Kath

Morsul - Lommy's vote in post #131?

My point was they decried bandwagons then *possibly* jumped on one

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

Duly noted.

I'm just going through Formy's posts and loved this so much I had to rep him for it:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

That doesn't mean that someone can't luck into a correct answer, but WW is an ever-escalating game of "normally I zig, so I need to zag" and "XXXX seems suspicious, but they always seem suspicious, but it's suspicious that I usually end up not thinking they're suspicious, and it's suspicious that they're aren't suspicious, and even more suspicious that they're a little bit suspicious rather than exact enough suspicious."

To which I'd add "X doesn't suspect me, does that mean they're an innocent who has a good read on me or a wolf trying to buddy up to me? I don't really suspect them either, does that mean I should? If I don't suspect them, is it just because they don't suspect me? But I'm actually innocent, so if they don't suspect me that's OK, isn't it?" - Boro and sally, this is about you.

Anyway. Reason I went through Form's posts is this:

Originally Posted by Kath #146

The wolves have to aim for the Seer, they can't afford not to. So either they saw something Seer-ish in Form, or they thought he'd dreamt of one of them. He voted for sally out of quite a few 'lurker' options he was thinking about, so even if killing him points toward a sally-wolf, the pack may have thought that getting potential Form-Seer out of the way early on was worth the risk.

And I don't see it. I think he made it pretty clear that he was channeling Nogrod and hunting submarines. He singled out Kath, sally and Sori a 'Quiet' (#78), gave Kath a pass as 'not bad for Kath' and Sori for being a newbie, and sally was left. Seriously, if I were a wolf in sally's place I don't know that I would have panicked enough to think him the Seer and kill him, or if I did I hope my packmates would have talked me out of it.

So I think this is much more likely to be a no-trace kill (the second-best thing if you can't kill the Seer, and if you can use it to frame an innocent, so much the better.)

But then again, this also means there was nobody else the wolves thought more likely to be the Seer (as I don't remember who and am too lazy to check said before me). This could speak for Hui's innocence (as I think Morsul noted). But if the wolves (or most of them) felt safe yesterDay we should look at those who didn't get any votes:
Boro
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Soriman
Which is half the remaining village, and I think it's highly likely there's at least one wolf among them.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm definitely not posting this while on a conference call.

I don't want to vote super early, but the more Lottie talks, the more suspicious I'm finding her. Not that she doesn't make sense, but she seems more....touchy, though of course not in a mean way, just a suspicious way.

I'll be back over a break, at which point I'll have to vote. I'm working late tonight to make up for being gone next week, so I won't be able to be on again until after deadline.

Edit: x'd with Pop

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I don't want to vote super early, but the more Lottie talks, the more suspicious I'm finding her. Not that she doesn't make sense, but she seems more....touchy, though of course not in a mean way, just a suspicious way.

Well, yes. Several people have said nothing all Day except that I seem suspicious. I am getting tired of that - look at other options! My vote stands out because it was the deciding one. Well, if Pitch had voted before me and Huin had turned out to be innocent, maybe my vote would have been the throwaway vote and his would have been the one that saved Greenie and you all would think Pitch and Greenie were packmates. That's just the position we were both in at the end of yesterDay, because people didn't vote, and I strongly suspect two innocents were the ones most likely to go home. I made a decision. I didn't especially suspect Greenie, but I chose to keep Huin, and now you and Morsul are all but refusing to look at anyone else because of it. It is frustrating, and I am a bit touchy at this point. I'm not a wolf, and I really, really wish you guys would spend more time looking for wolves than just reiterating that you suspect me. I get it, I do, but please don't just let the wolves skate by completely unnoticed because you can't stop talking about me!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, yes. Several people have said nothing all Day except that I seem suspicious. I am getting tired of that - look at other options! My vote stands out because it was the deciding one.

This is true. I feel like I've made some good points about Legate and so far I think only Legate himself and Huey have responded to it.

I'm wary if I continue then I'll just be tunnel visioned on Legate and thus my day is stuck on 1 person. If I had to vote right this moment it would be for Legate, and I would definitely love to hear what other people think about this? (Morsul? Sally? If you're able to come back at some point in the day...Lottie? Pitch? Kath? Soriman - where are you?)

[Huinesoron]

Votes so far

Morsul > Sally
Sally > Lottie
Kath > Sally [2]
Soriman > Lottie [2]

I think lynching a WolfSally would shed a lot of light, but I also think it would be an easy lynch for the wolves to jump on board because of the "SeerForm" thing. Also, per my last, I have no read on Sally as wolfish except for "SeerForm" logic.

Interrupting myself because Soriman is here and... voting for Lottie with no reasoning other than them being my most likely packmate (but not voting me). Um... what?

But it's nearly 10pm and I'm too tired to stay up and see more. :-/ I think Lottie is likely innocent, and Sally is a coin-toss, so I'm going to put in a vote for my 'most likely wolf' per my last post:

++BOROMIR88

hS

[Boromir88]

Alright, back for the rest of the day. I haven't read any posts after my last one #139 yet, I wanted to expand more on my suspicions about Legate's vote analysis post:

Originally Posted by Legate

I have never said that we should look only at these and disregard all the other votes (and I think a large share of my post was devoted to considering others, Morsul included). And you are right that Morsul started the bandwagon, and I am not contradicting that - even though I daresay that with having already a vote at that point, whether he is a Wolf or innocent, he would have likely acted similarly.

True and I never claimed otherwise. 6 people voted for Greenie and Huey yesterday...in order it was:

Morsul > Huey
Lommy > Huey (2)
Legate > Greenie
Huey > Greenie (2)
Lottie > Greenie (3)
Pitch > Huey (3)

It's also true that you considered Morsul being the first to vote for Huey, but to me, you very clearly wanted to put the attention to those who cast the 2nd votes (Huey and Lommy)

Originally Posted by Legate

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

(Bolding my emphasis)

And my argument is, a single vote a bandwagon does not make, but a single vote has the same potential to start a bandwagon. What I mean is with Lottie's vote yesterday:

Originally Posted by Lottie

Okay, it's getting towards the deadline, and I'm still struggling a bit with this one. I would honestly prefer to vote Morsul or Pitch, but I don't know who all is still around to vote, so I'm probably going to go with one of the two candidates who've received multiple votes, at least in part to make sure it's less likely a sudden bandwagon on Boro's vote leaves me all alone in the Dead Thread ().

My first reaction is why is Lottie nervous about acquiring a single vote (mine)? But she's right and it's a good point to consider when looking at votes. At that time Huey and Greenie had 2, with 3 others (not including Lottie) left to vote my vote had the same potential to start a bandwagon, as did anyone else who made the first vote for someone else.

If you want to call my vote a throwaway, I can see that being the case for people who don't know my alignment. I still would beg to disagree. It was Lottie's and Pitch's vote that made mine a "throwaway." I was pretty clear throughout the day I was more worried about Lottie and voted that way. Lottie herself admitted there was the possibility that she could be bandwagon lynched. So, in my opinion, to call my vote a "throwaway" is inaccurate, it's only a throwaway because Lottie's, Pitch's votes, plus sally's and Soriman not voting made it a throwaway.

Now I did make a mistake in not recognizing Legate's comments on Pitch's vote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes, Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for Hui. And that was at the point when Greenie was leading, and Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.

I chalked this up to perhaps being a language barrier difference, because I agreed with your overall conclusion that Pitch's vote was a throwaway and looks like "keeping record clean" when Greenie is revealed innocent. I didn't register Legate categorizing Pitch's vote as sinister until Huey brought it up in his post #134.

It may very well be a language barrier thing, but if anything Lottie's vote is the sinister one and Pitch's is the "safe throwaway." What I mean is this:

I don't know Pitch's alignment and I don't know Huey's alignment, we all know Greenie is innocent. If Pitch is a wolf in this scenario, he would know even casting a 3rd vote for Huey the innocent-Greenie would still be lynched, thus it's safe and "keeps his record clean."

That is the case, if I go with the assumption Pitch is a wolf. The problem with just going by that assumption is I don't know Pitch's alignment, and I don't know Huey's alignment. I do now know Greenie's alignment, therefor of the voters who brought Greenie and Huey to 3, the more suspicious vote is Lottie's being the vote that lynched a known innocent.

I'd be even wary of classifying Lottie's vote as "sinister" because that would suggest I know Lottie's a wolf and thus was motivated to get Greenie lynched. But currently as far as I know, Pitch is an unknown alignment, and Huey is an unknown alignment, so I don't know how his vote for someone's alignment I do not know should be classified as evil.

Ok, will read and catch up on the posts I missed.

[Kath]

I haven't made it to toDay yet as I forgot how much I missed between voting and deadline yesterDay! Standing out to me from that is Hui.

As I read, it struck me that a lot of Hui's suspicion of Greenie was based on her seemingly taking other people suspicions and reiterating them. But in terms of Hui's suspicion of Greenie, they first agree with Legate that Greenie's comment about 'Boro launching the Day 1s are pointless debate' was overstating it and then use Legate's reasons against Greenie again to further suspect Greenie. So ... pot/kettle? Then we get:

Greenie is back, and what earlier looked like buddying-up now comes over as fairly considering each person's points.

Which seems to suggest Hui was then feeling better about Greenie, but then followed by Hui saying Greenie worrying about possibly not being alive the next Day smacked of a guilty conscience. I have to disagree with that. She was being talked about a fair amount, and I think that's a fear anybody has in WW.

Actually all the way through yesterDay Hui seems to be sort of following Legate's lead. Even in post #70 Legate suggests Greenie as a vote and Hui then suggests that would be a vote they'd be comfortable with.

I don't know that I'm saying there's a Legate/Hui wolf-pack here, but it struck me as odd.