TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Thinlómien]

I don't understand Hui's posting. Unless it is to say that the dead think Soriman is innocent and Pitch is guilty? That's what I'm getting. But given that Kath joined the dead when Hui departed, these cannot be seer dreams. Update: Hui seems to have confirmed they know about Soriman and are guessing about Pitch. I would like to know how they're sure they know, but I guess I'll just have to take a leap of faith.

I'm seeing a Morsul-Boro alliance out in the open, and I'm pretty sure that's how the two of them would play it if they were the remaining wolves: appear decisively in the start of the Day when the Europeans are sleeping, direct the discussion where they want (ie towards the most guilty looking other player, ie Pitch), and not suspect each other. I'm mildly alarmed.

Pitch doesn't look too good, but I can kind of sympathise with what he said about his reaction to Sally yesterDay, and my own was not dissimilar - an innocent with no better knowledge would naturally fliflop.

I'm still intending to look at Kath myself because I don't trust anyone else to do it without twisting things, but continuing off Legate's post #430, I agree Kath likely dreamed of Sally, and I would hesitate to say she dreamed of wolf-Pitch or wolf-Legate, or she'd have come out yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Boro

This is another thing I don't get. So, this was the Day 2 vote, so you say you want to know something I'm scheming (which looks to me like you're trying to make something I do sound suspicious) but conclude "hopefully knowing Huey's role will help."

I'm not sure if this is breaking news to anyone, but I'm always up to something. Being up to something doesn't mean it's an evil something, and to call it "scheming" applies that it is evil. That's not really what bothers me though, because like I said it's not breaking news I try to lay out bait and traps. What bothers me is Lommy is framing myself negatively (I'm "scheming"), but instead of actually voting for me, she voted for Huey to "hopefully" find something out about me.

If you're innocent, you're "having a plan", if you're guilty, you're "scheming"? Ok, joking aside, I did and do think you're making some weird maneuvers which I haven't been able to follow. Naturally, that makes me worry if they're good or evil. Here the "scheming" you were doing was whatever was the point of pursuing Legate for the first half of the Day, then dropping it and going for Huin instead. I don't think it was wrong of me to think of that as nefarious. In fact, I still think it entirely possible that you and Legate are the remaining wolves (in which case, toDay has not started very well). And yeah, I still don't know what the back-and-forth between you, Huin and Legate was about. It's hard to believe you'd all be innocent. I'm planning to look at that toDay. And as for why I voted for Huin and not you - I thought you might be "scheming" but it was not my main line of suspicion. In fact, if you look back, I thought the order of suspiciousness in your trio was Huin > Legate > you (which was likely stupid of me, given even the statistic likelihood of one of you two others being a wolf).

Originally Posted by Boro

But that's not what Kath said. #322

Pitch said that Kath had not yet said something about Morsul. Her "fair point" is that she had not said anything yet about Morsul, and then proceeds to do a Morsul-analysis.

No, I thought Kath was referring to the first part of the thing she quoted (Pitch pointing out that she and Morsul are in tandem), you think she was referring to the latter part of the thing she quoted (that she hasn't said anything about Morsul). Looking at Kath's post again, I can see what you mean, and I actually agree your interpretation is more likely than mine. It makes more sense, especially now in retrospect knowing that Kath and Morsul cannot be wolvish packmates.

Also, getting weird vibes from Boro's last post which is basically just answering questions about himself no one asked and lamenting his wrong decisions (such as voting for Hui) in a way that makes him sound like a self-conscious wolf.

Okay, now off to do some rereading.

PS. Not sure what to make of the fact that Legate seems oblivious to the fact that there are still 2 wolves among us. I don't think he's suspected anyone in his several posts toDay, which is a big red flag to me. Who do you think the wolves are?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't understand Hui's posting. Unless it is to say that the dead think Soriman is innocent and Pitch is guilty? That's what I'm getting. But given that Kath joined the dead when Hui departed, these cannot be seer dreams. Update: Hui seems to have confirmed they know about Soriman and are guessing about Pitch. I would like to know how they're sure they know, but I guess I'll just have to take a leap of faith.

I'm not following the difficulty you (and sally, Pitch yesterday) appear to be having with the messages from the ghosts? They've been brilliantly clear in making sure the accurate information is given.

Yesterday Form had 2 messages from "Iluvatar" (G55 and BG) that were given to the Dead thread. G55 explained that since there was no wolf yet, this was a tidbit of information randomly selected by them:

Originally Posted by G55

In light of recent posts, yet another rules reminder. The Dead HAVE gotten Infodrops on both N2 and N3. This info was not concrete information as could befit a seer. It is not truly cryptic in the sense that you have to figure out a riddle, more just vague. Information that may limit your range of possibilities in certain scenarios but does not point to any one specific scenario being true.

Does that make sense? In 5 words: the Dead have vague facts.

One of those "vague facts" was there was at least one wolf among the list of people who received a vote on Day 1. This has been confirmed as true, with sally being lynched a wolf yesterday. It could be Morsul and Pitch are also wolves, because the "vague fact" was only "at least one of them is a wolf." So, this message is for as far as I know, fulfilled. It cannot be used to point guilt towards Morsul or Pitch, and it cannot clear Morsul of Pitch.

Now as G55 also stated, if a wolf joins the dead thread, that wolf would get a pick of the "vague fact" that the dead learn. This does not mean sally was allowed to choose false information, just that she had her pick of what the "vague fact" was..I know G55 loves being a cobbler, but she's not a liar, I can't imagine she would give sally false information to give to the dead and then have them provide it to the living; only that sally had her choice from a number of "vague facts" the dead could learn.

That fact apparently was something revealing Soriman's innocent. That much is clear in Huey's messages. Post #407. I mean, "Iluvatar" "Saruman" "innocent" "friendship"...I don't see how this is any way not clear.

His other message is conveying the beliefs of the dead. The first quote mentions "Gorlim" (the Ghost). The dead believe Pitch is a wolf, this is again a clear difference between what they learned about Soriman, and what they believe about Pitch.

I would suspect a cobbler would have a lot of fun with trying to confuse us about the messages, but seeing as there is no cobbler. My conclusion is it has to be wolves, because only they would benefit from trying to be confused by the Ghost's messages. So far that is something that just factually doesn't make sense, neither Form nor Huey have been ambiguous in their quoting.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by FotR: The Council of Elrond

Aragorn smiled at him; then he turned to Boromir again.

Ghost

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Silm: Ainulindale

But when they were come into the Void, Ilúvatar said to them: 'Behold your Music!'

Originally Posted by RotK: Many Partings

But now come tell me: what of the task that I set you? How is Saruman?

Originally Posted by UT: The History of Galadriel and Celeborn

Thus the Dwarves of Moria may be presumed to have been innocent of the ruin of Doriath and not hostile to the Elves.

Ghost

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Silm: Of Tuor and the Fall of Gondolin

But they knew not who he was, nor anything of what had befallen in the south; and he passed them by, and they said no word.

Originally Posted by Silm: Of Beren and Luthien

The wind wails,
The wolf howls.

Originally Posted by Hobbit: Flies and Spiders

It then became pitch-dark—not what you call pitch-dark, but really pitch: so black that you really could see nothing.

Ghost

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Silm: Of the Silmarils and the Unrest of the Noldor

Now the Valar were sitting in council before their gates, fearing the lengthening of the shadows, when the messengers came from Formenos.

Originally Posted by FotR: The Council of Elrond

'We know not for certain,' answered Elrond sadly.

Ghost

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I did a very scattered re-read at work but didn't have the time to post any conclusions. I would have actually liked to recheck a few things once I get home, in a better environment, but this for now. These are just very quick summaries of my current impressions.

Assuming Soriman is innocent (btw hoping he shows up).

Morsul has a fairly good voting record, probably the best by far. His posting often raises questions of its own, but he has the tendency to act unpredictably. There is still the possibility that he might be a Wolf based on the Ghost info from yesterDay, in that case a super lucky and brazen one. I would rather lean innocent because it would be just too many lucky coincidences for him. Sidenote, regarding yesterDay, a lot still depends on what did the Wolves do there and how coordinated it was, whether they went in with the idea to bus sally or not.

Lommy, as for voting record, was twice in the thick of the Huiwagon. Otherwise like I said she does not seem to post in any way wolfishly, but could be a submarine Wolf. YesterDay I would say her actions around the vote for sally speak to her favour, her willingness to consider sally's claim but also that she voted her (fairly early) - a Wolf would likely not have done that.

Pitch has the most suspicious voting record, basically voting every Day when it did not matter any more. His posts raise eyebrows every now and then, but he has so far managed to avoid getting under any drastic scrutiny. The matter with him and possible participation in the Seer reveal with sally yesterDay is also one thing that makes him look bad.

Boro has certainly been a "steersman" through and through, and one could basically interpret each of his actions as good or bad, including all the cryptic remarks and conspiracy theories. His voting has been rather on the safer side (first Day he voted for somebody who did not have the chance to get lynched, Day 2 he voted early too). Day 3 depends of course on what exactly has trespassed there. If he's a Wolf, then he threw sally under the bus, but not that it is impossible, of all people I can imagine him doing that. If that was the idea, now he is in much better standing because of that and may be just playing it that way, hoping to weather whatever storms are going to come.

Right now, I would be more inclined to think that at least one of Boro or Pitch is a Wolf, and I feel overall more confident about them than the other two; the others would be much more blind shot for me. It may however be quite imaginable that either of Pitch and Boro is and then his packmate is one of the two others. I tried at some point during my re-read to form some sort of combinatorics about who could be Wolves with whom, but I realised that was beyond my processing power, at least at work. Anyway I think it comes down to whether we lynch correctly toDay, then hopefully that will help things become clearer toMorrow, plus ideally with more Dead and possibly Seer info.

Need to make myself some dinner, but then I'll be back. Presumably shouldn't be too long.

EDIT: x-ed with several novels and with all Ghost's posts. Will be back to read them.

[Thinlómien]

I have spent a lot of time in this game writing post summaries and I don't have the time now since I want to look at all of Kath, Sally, Boro, and Legate, so you'll just have to bear with my impressions:

Kath

On Day1, possibly to avoid wolvish attention, Kath didn't single anyone out as particularly wolvish or innocent. She voted for Morsul. Day2 she heavily suspected Sally based on Form's death and voted for her, and she also suspected all of the Hui-Legate-Boro trio to a degree, but unlikely dreamed of any of them (especially unlikely in the case of Huin ). Defended Lottie. Conclusions? Sally and Lottie were likely seer dreams.

Day3 then? Speculates a Sally/Lommy/Pitch pack, also suspects Legate. Makes it clear that "sally I think is a wolf regardless of the other two" but otherwise making no clear ranking of suspiciousness between others. Ergo likely didn't dream of anyone else (and well, I can tell you with 100% certainty that she didn't dream of me, or she wouldn't have wasted her time suspecting me). Later voices more suspicion of Pitch based on his communication with Sally. Also looks at Morsul but doesn't conclude anything concrete about his guilt/innocence, so safe to say she didn't dream of him either. Says she's tempted to think Soriman is a wolf and says almost nothing at all about Boro; if we trust the dead, she cannot have dreamed of guilty!Sori and I think she'd have mentioned if she had serious reasons to believe Boro was guilty or innocent. So I'm a little swamped about dream #3, my guess is that she actually only dreamed of Sally AFTER suspecting her on Day2 to confirm/prove it, and one of her earlier dreams was someone who died (basically Greenie or Form). I guess it's also possible she dreamed of a Wolfwife on N3, but I'd think she'd have come out in that case. Also that doesn't really add up with the "sally is a wolf regardless" comment.

Sally

Day1 was her infamous quiet Day, and she did not vote. On Day2 she says she would vote for Lottie (for aggression) or Lommy (gut instinct), has no idea about Hui, Sori and Legate, and would not vote Boro, Pitch, Morsul, or Kath. Defended Pitch quite vocally by her standards (give that she was quite quiet in this game), and voted for Lottie. I do think wolf!Sally could defend Pitch regardless of his role - to buddy up with an innocent, but she could just as well defend a fellow openly and trust to get away with it.

Day3 has again more material, and it's here stuff gets more interesting. She refused to buy into the "one of Sally / Morsul / Pitch is guilty" theory as long as she could. Instead she kept saying Morsul is likely misguided innocent and didn't say anything about Pitch. Said she "would vote" Kath, Legate, Lommy or Sori, and "wouldn't vote" Boro, Morsul or Pitch. She tried to make a case against me, and agreed with Boro's point against Legate. Didn't really specify why she put anyone else in any particular category, if I'm correct. Then later in the day she seems to have flipped - perhaps after it started to look like a majority of the village was willing to vote for her, or maybe after enough people explained the dead thread message to her - and she amended that maybe Morsul or Pitch could be a wolf after all. Later she tried to fake she was the seer and she'd dreamed of innocent Boro and Morsul, and try to get the village vote for Kath with her. Says Pitch is more likely a wolf than Morsul. Says "Et tu, Boro?" when Boro votes for her.

Comments: A lot to unpack here, especially with the votes against her combined. Let me just comment individually how likely packmates I consider everyone for Sally, in the order which they voted for her:

#1 Morsul: was the first one to vote for Sally, right at the beginning of the Day, and kept pressing at her lynch throughout the Day. Sally kept defending him 'til the end. Now this would have been an insanely bold move from wolf Morsul. Remember, we know now Sally was lynched, but there was no way the wolves would have known she was doomed from the beginning of the Day. A sacrifice like Morsul's would have been an unnecessary prolonging of the game from their pov. I mean I guess it's possible the wolves thought Sally was toast and decided to bus her from the beginning of the Day, but I'd think they'd have preferred to have tried to win the game yesterDay. Sally's insistence in Morsul's innocence could have been to make herself look better (I don't think knee jerk suspicion of Morsul would have helped her case), or I guess more sinister if she didn't want to make Morsul another lynch option when the pack had already decided to bus her, not him.

#2 Kath

#3 Boro - now his and mine (#4) were the decisive ones. (Had voting for Sally stopped at 3 votes and someone else got 3 too, the outcome would have been up to the dead thread. So number #3 made sally an almost certain lynch candidate and #4 sealed it.) Normally, I would say that this would be a credit to Boro, but given that nobody except Pitchwife and myself to a lesser degree seemed to be considering sally's reveal could be genuine, bussing her at this point would have been a clever move for Wolfomir88. (Also, Boro didn't even consider Sally's reveal could have been genuine. Somewhat typical Boro-singlemindedness, or was he so sure she wasn't genuine because he knew?) Sally's continued trust in Boro makes me raise my eyebrows, but then again, "Et tu, Boro?" would be pretty bold against a fellow wolf. But then again, Sally is bold. Idk. To be honest, my feelings towards Boro in this game can be summed up in two words: intense paranoia, ok and also the following three: second-guessing everything.

#4 me

#5 Soriman, whom I'm not going to analyse

#6 Legate - a late vote that does him little credit. He'd have voted for Sally at this point regardless of his role. She threw him in her suspicious category earlier during Day3 but didn't contribute very much to making an actual case against him - this is another piece of non-information, if you ask me. I think the wolves would likely not have turned against each other in the first half of the day since they could still have won by lynching an innocent - but then again, putting him in a "suspicious" category but only proceeding to make one (1) unoriginal point against him would hardly make Legate more likely to get lynched.

#7 Pitchwife - as has been pointed out almost ad nauseam toDay, he looks the worst in conjuction with Sally. She considered him innocent earlier, on Day3 considered him innocent without drawing extra attention to him (she didn't claim to have "seer dreamed" of him unlike about Morsul and Boro, but she kept him safely in her innocent category without really saying anything to draw attention to him either before or after her reveal, except for a somewhat belated "ok if one of me, Morsul and Pitch is a wolf, it has to be Pitch", which is understandable, because she had just claimed she dreamed of innocent Morsul.) I still think the Pitch-Sally interaction is a little fishy, but as I said before, I can also sympathise with Pitch. I mean if you're an ordo, can you really rightaway disregard a seer reveal, however unlikely the source? Perhaps Pitch looks foul but feels fair. However, this game has proven that both my reason and my gut-feeling can be equally wrong, so I'm hesitating to draw any conclusions.

Ok leaving Legate and Boro for the next post, and focusing on that weird dance with Huin on D2 because I don't have the time to go through all their verbiose posts, and D1 I think is likely not that telling and D3 is in my fresh memory... then I'm also gonna look at wolf-packs. My current options are Morsul-Boro (who'd have decided to bus Sally), Legate-Pitch (would look maybe the most likely in regards to Sally I guess), or Legate-Boro (downright insane but absolutely actually quite plausible and also sounds like we would be done for). Individually I think Morsul looks the most innocent, but I'm on the fence about the other three.

But now, Legate just came home and we're gonna make dinner, so a little break from ww first. Wish us luck that we won't stab each other with kitchen knives, it's absolutely insane to be in the same apartment on a Day like this. (Don't play ww with your significant others, children, it might be detrimental to your relationship and/or mental health!)

Also I'm gonna cross-post with everyone because I've been writing this for almost two hours (jeez).