A "what if" military scenario -LOTR

[SoundingShores]

That's an interesting scenario! I hope it’s not too late to weigh in, I apologize if it is.

I think it's possible that Gollum would have gone into hiding with the Ring, and I'll get to that scenario in a bit. But to start by going off on a tangent, I wonder if we aren't meant to think that Gollum would have tried to claim the Ring and use it (its main power of domination, not the invisibility power). He used to be hiding with it, but he had gone through a rough time since then, and it seems he wanted revenge. He says to himself about Shelob: "And when we’ve got it safe, then She’ll know it, O yes, then we’ll pay Her back, my precious. Then we’ll pay everyone back!" It sounds like he wanted to use the Ring to get back at everyone (presumably Shelob, Sauron, Sam, Aragorn, Thranduil and his elves etc).

If he had tried this, or maybe even if he had just claimed the Ring without using it, I think it would've led to Sauron recovering it. In one of his letters (246), Tolkien wrote that if Gollum's redemption hadn't been interrupted, his love for Frodo would have enabled him to realize that he "could not use the Ring and had not the strength or stature to keep it in Sauron's despite." He also writes that Sauron would have swiftly reclaimed the Ring from Frodo if Frodo hadn't been attacked by Gollum (unless Frodo had enough sanity left to cast himself into the fire with the Ring).

So I think the most likely outcome would be that Sauron would take the Ring from Gollum.

Anyway, back to the scenario where Gollum disappears with the Ring.

I could be wrong but I always got the impression that a successful defense against Sauron without destroying the Ring wasn't possible, although some characters initially hoped that it would be. In the what-if scenario, nothing really happens that would improve the military situation compared to what existed in the book at the time of the Last Debate. The Rohirrim arriving, Aragorn coming on the ships, the Witch-king being defeated, winning the battle of Pelennor Fields, all this stuff happened in the book. But Gandalf still says that victory by arms isn't possible at this point, that’s why he advocates the "feint" idea (which is very risky and not that likely to succeed, so not something you'd argue for if you had other options). He says: "Victory cannot be achieved by arms, whether you sit here to endure siege after siege, or march out to be overwhelmed beyond the River." So he says that even a defensive posture couldn't save Gondor and he certainly doesn't recommend an offensive. Osgiliath used to be a large city and had been heavily fortified. I don't think it would've been possible to retake it while outnumbered 1:10 by the "defenders" (Sauron's forces).

I think without the destruction of the Ring, Sauron would have won in the North. The fate of the Gondorians (the ones who didn’t fall in battle) would have probably been the escape into the mountains scenario predicted by Beregond and Denethor, but they would’ve been hunted down eventually. I guess my impression is that what we see in LotR was meant to be this "all or nothing" situation where just prolonging the stalemate further wasn't possible anymore. I might be overlooking something though.

[Mithadan]

Focusing for a moment on the original post, if Gollum's plot to use Shelob to get the Ring succeeded, an immediate problem would arise. He would be on the borders of Mordor with the only options being to go forward into Sauron's realm, or retreat back towards Morgul Vale (with the Ring). Could he have resisted putting the Ring on (even if he didn't "claim it" as his own)? At this point, probably not. There is a very good chance that he might have been detected by Sauron or a Nazgul. If this happened, all of the war plans go out the window (temporarily). Tolkien actually discusses what would have happened if Gollum had not intervened at the Cracks of Doom and Frodo claimed the Ring and retained It. The same would happen if Gollum had secured the Ring in Cirith Ungol and been detected. All 9 Nazgul would come to him and either kill him (if he did not "claim" the Ring) or feign obeisance until Gollum could be brought before Sauron, at which point the Ring would be taken. If Gollum managed to evade the Nazgul somehow, all of Sauron's servants and armies would have been tasked with finding him. The war would be delayed only until Sauron recovered the Ring.

Let's speculate that Gollum either manages to take the Ring with Shelob's help or seizes it earlier, is not detected and slips away. Sauron's war would proceed as planned. Even if Gondor prevails on the Pelennor as it did in RoTK, this is a temporary setback. The next assault would be successful. Gondor and Rohan would fall. Erebor and Dale would be defeated. Lorien, which fought only a defensive war until the Ring was destroyed, would ultimately be defeated or its people would leave for the West. The same would happen to Thranduil's realm, Imladris and the remnant in Lindon and the Havens.

In short, Gandalf's arguments in the Council of Elrond would prove true. Unless the Ring is destroyed, there is no avenue for the West to prevail.

An interesting area for speculation (and this is all speculation) is whether Gollum would actually attempt to claim and wield the Ring. Clearly, he did not know what the Ring was or how to use it when he possessed it. However, by the time he joins Frodo and Sam, he had been captured by Sauron, and had a better understanding of the Ring, thus his internal dialogue about becoming "strong" and "Lord Gollum" or "Gollum the Great." Gollum was not strong enough to wield the Ring and this would likely only delay the inevitable.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

An interesting wargame scenario. There are I think some logistical concerns; the idea of Sauron sending his main force to march along the coast and occupy all of Gondor but Anorien has a serious problem with supply, Minas Tirth being an unreduced fortress that constantly threatens the tenuous connection via Osgiliath and the Causeway. However, if the Corsairs could take Pelargir, then Sauron could use that as his main supply base.

Marching north on Lorien, presumably crossing at the Undeeps and attacking across the Field of Celebrandt, also has major supply issues given a very active cavalry army in Calenardhon. I think I prefer the southern strategy.

Note that Sauron was in no way equipped to supply the 100-150,000 troops he had to besiege Minas Tirith; that was a quick-strike force intended to live off its plunder (and probably the dead). The whole success of that campaign hinged on Grond and the Witch-King taking out the Gate, fast, not an extended siege (also, the blocking force at Amon Din).

[bilbobaggins764]

All great thoughts to consider, I apologize for lack of time. Thanks for the responses.