WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

These are things to say before I do my read-through of Nerwen's post (I may not post an analysis if I don't see anything that stands out, since I have previously analysed her already):

I would like to believe that the priority targets of the baddies are:

1. The Seer (a risky proposition, as has been pointed out by my mother).
2. The Ranger (but I repeat my doubt: how do you find her?)
3. Known innocents (and we have, in my opinion, people closest to that in this village, although doubts have been cast on their status.)
4. Targets for future misdirection (to enable them to retain the initiative and gain some disguise--but this is only if 1) and 3) (and 2), to a lesser extent) have been taken care of.)

My read-through is for the express purpose of checking to see if 1) and 2) are possible, but I think that for our baddie-slayers they are perhaps, I repeat, the closest thing to 3) and perhaps 1) to them. So things that come to mind are:

• Nerwen is a more compelling kill, due to 1) and/or 2) (again, the reason for a readthrough).
• There is indeed a baddie among the baddie-slayers.
• The baddies are casting reasonable doubt on the baddie-slayers (falls under 4))
• The baddie-slayers are now barking up the wrong tree (once again, falls under 4)).

Gah. Don't I just hate myself. I need to read the entire thread carefully.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

People prominent in Nerwen's posts:

• Thinlómien:
  • 196: That part at the bottom reveals a smidgen of doubt about Lommy.
  • 211: The doubt is repeated, but it remains a smidgen (due to her caveat at the end.)
  • 266: Mentions the possibility of accidental Fenris fratricide, but reiterates that she's not 'getting any particular guilty vibes off Lommy right now'.
  
  
• Bom Tombadillo:
  • 275: Welcomes him back, hangs a lampshade on his 'throwaway' vote.
  • 287: Rules out Bom + Kit.
  • 292: Repeats her doubts regarding Bom's vote.
  
  
• Galadriel55:
  • 196: Logical exculpation of G55 due to her 'connexion' with Loslote.
  • 264: Considers a possible Eomer-Kit-Loslote trio of baddies, due to Eomer's focus on Sally and G55, ostensibly 'to steer the discussion away from Kit'. But once again she adds a caveat at the end. [Prudence is the new patience! ]
  
  
• satansaloser2005:
  • 196: I don't know if she's saying anything about Sally's guilt or not, since parts of the post hangs on the assumption that she's a baddie with Lottie.
  • 264: This one hangs on the assumption that she's innocent and a shooting target of an evil Eomer. Meh, Nerwen comes to no conclusion about Sally.

Okay, so Lommy kinda looks bad now--all the caveats Nerwen had appended seems to be just like full stops for her sentences, heh. Bom has been attacked on the basis of his vote, so nothing jumps out there. G55 has been defended well enough, so if she had been an attempted Seer-kill them baddies probably thought either she or Lommy (or both) had been a dream target.

(Btw it's cool how nobody save for a two-words-Sally has shown up. Soon I shall flood this DAY with my thoughts and you shall follow me to your doom! DOOM!!!)

Dream on.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

People prominent in Nerwen's posts:
[*]Galadriel55:

• 196: Logical exculpation of G55 due to her 'connexion' with Loslote.
• 264: Considers a possible Eomer-Kit-Loslote trio of baddies, due to Eomer's focus on Sally and G55, ostensibly 'to steer the discussion away from Kit'. But once again she adds a caveat at the end. [Prudence is the new patience! ]

---

Okay, so Lommy kinda looks bad now--all the caveats Nerwen had appended seems to be just like full stops for her sentences, heh. Bom has been attacked on the basis of his vote, so nothing jumps out there. G55 has been defended well enough, so if she had been an attempted Seer-kill them baddies probably thought either she or Lommy (or both) had been a dream target.

It would be very bold of a wolf to outline the reason for the night kill so soon on the next day, but Nilp is either doing just that or is unlucky enough to have stumbled upon the same tracks.

G55 'exculpated' by Nerwen's slaying indeed!

Your interpretation of the Nerwen-Lommy relationship looks like you're trying to shoehorn your 'go after Lommy' agenda where it's not wanted.

And you are making me wonder if Sally might be innocent after all!

[Mithalwen]

Don't get carried away there Eomer, there are limits to plausibility.

In retrospect, Nerwen's comments yesterday wondering why Shasta looked Seerish to the wolves and saying she hadn't reckoned that the Seer might not be the wolves top priority might indicate that her own priority was working out the Seer not the wolves - which is the proper function of the Ranger.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, several things:

The Kitwagon yesterDay - did seriously nobody at least stop to wonder that it is rather weird how huge and matter-of-factly smooth it has become? As in, I can see people voting for Kit, but I wonder if any of you had ever re-read her posts, or if it was just a spontaneous "let's go!" stuff. I have been wondering about her myself by the start of the Day, but after I managed to reread her posts, it really didn't seem that horrible - there surely were better candidates.

Second, the obvious question, why Nerwen? I don't recall her posting anything specifically Ranger-ish, and Seer-ish, well, that would have to be determined - I don't recall, but it would be worth looking if she didn't say something specific about Lottie on the first Day or such (but she hadn't been around much). I haven't read through her posts yet, I am now just acting based on memory; I think that should be done, however. I am not sure if Nilp, despite announcing that he will attempt it, actually managed to find any response to his question, or then it is phrased in such a way that I can't read it there.

As for other stuff, I would now still very much like to see Bom and have him recount what he was thinking when voting and if he had read the thread before it. To recapitulate, I find it extremely weird to vote Kitanna and say that it's a throwaway, even if he thought it was DL. It can be totally genuine, but it can also be a Wolf genuinely thinking it is DL and excusing himself for a throwaway vote. Anyway, it's just so random.

Now I share Eomer's concern about Nilp, however, I don't cease being wary of Eomer himself - and his rather quick jump on Nilp by the start of toDay makes me wonder about possible ulterior motives in there.

I need to re-read stuff. My basic premise about Nerwen's death would be that she was either a person who didn't look likely to be protected (and possibly, as a bonus, thought to be dangerously clever) or that she simply suspected one or more of the Wolves and was thought a person who didn't look likely to be protected. I am really not thinking, at least on first sight, that she would give off any particularly Gifted vibes.

EDIT: x-ed with Mith. People start to appear, it seems.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

When I mentioned not trusting Nilp:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Agreed. I still can't classify him on my suspocion list (slippery him!), but I don't trust him. Neither do I trust you. >.<

It's a thought. Dear cousin Nilp is becoming a problem!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Legate, I am quite simply Kath to your Mormegil: in every game you suspect me! You need to realise that it's the way I post, and has nothing to do with my role.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Your interpretation of the Nerwen-Lommy relationship looks like you're trying to shoehorn your 'go after Lommy' agenda where it's not wanted.

Actually Nilp, it's weird. You defended Lommy three times yesterday but today you're saying she "kinda looks bad now" because..... because Nerwen wasn't sure about her?

That's strange, even for you.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Legate, I am quite simply Kath to your Mormegil: in every game you suspect me! You need to realise that it's the way I post, and has nothing to do with my role.

Really, do I? May be so; in general I know you haven't been in that many games in which I was playing. I at least remember how you behaved when you were a Wolf together with me, which I think was the first game in which we played together. Of course you have a certain kind of behavior or tone which is common to your posts whichever role you might have, but it just seems to me...

Anyway, the stuff at hand now: I went through Nerwen's posts, and as far as I am concerned, I can't find anything that would look Seer-ish or Ranger-ish or whatnot. I am really inclined to believe that she was killed just simply because the WWs thought she won't be protected and all that, with the possibility that she was going after one of them as well.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Don't get carried away there Eomer, there are limits to plausibility.

In retrospect, Nerwen's comments yesterday wondering why Shasta looked Seerish to the wolves and saying she hadn't reckoned that the Seer might not be the wolves top priority might indicate that her own priority was working out the Seer not the wolves - which is the proper function of the Ranger.

Limits to plausibility, indeed. The thing Mith says here seems a bit complicated to me, or a bit overanalysed. Are you sure you haven't thought of that together with your packmates at Night?

Unrelated to analysing Nerwen, I have found one thing among what she had said which I consider rather clever and worth mentioning - it is related to possible connections of Lottie to G55 (we still have the stuff that G55 was the only one whom Lottie really suspected or spoke about in general on Day 1):

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It's perhaps more likely Wolflote would go strongly after a newbie comrade than Sallywolf, simply because Lottie tends to be very pessimistic about her own chances of survival– she might have reasoned that ione or other of them would probably die early anyway, and thus that a real wolf-on-wolf attack was the best bet. All the same, it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

Left to ponder.

EDIT: x-ed with one Eo

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Love to, but I'd also love to catch wolves, and I fear there might be a conflict of interest.

Potential quadruple post here, but I would advise people to go back to the first page and trawl through the absurd flirting going on between Loslote and Nilp. Like I said, if Nilp is an evil spirit then he's a bold one!

[Thinlómien]

Too bad about Kit but at least she can concentrate on her RL stuff now. Much worse about Nerwen though. I suspected her a little but I also got slightly gifted vibes from her (hence my not understanding of people saying she did not seem gifted). I will go through her posts to see if we can get any seer-suspect hints from there.

Nilp's conviction of the Lottie-voters' innocence is weird because it's so strong. To me it starts to sound slightly like a wolf insistently buddying up with innocents (I think it's less likely that if Nilp is a wolf one of us is a wolf too - then I doubt he would attract so much attention to his defense of us).

Originally Posted by Legate

Limits to plausibility, indeed. The thing Mith says here seems a bit complicated to me, or a bit overanalysed. Are you sure you haven't thought of that together with your packmates at Night?

My thoughts exactly when I was reading that, and that's twice now Mith has done it. Means Mith is my top suspect at the moment.

At the moment thinking Loslote + Nilp + Mith pack might make a lot of sense. It explains Mith's feeble try to save Lottie, Nilp and Mith keeping playing the mummy&son game going on all the time (what better excuse to co-operate openly?) and Nilp & Lottie's banter on Day1 (if they had already become friends on Night1). Also then it makes sense of Mith's two wolf plan analyses and the one of Nilp's Eomer pointed out, as well as credits my theory about Nilp's let's-not-suspect-the-Lottie-voters meme. As icing on the cake, it explains why Nilp did his traditional self-vote in such a cowardly manner on Day1.

[Mithalwen]

I asked Nilp if he had caught me a wolf in about my opening post. That's it from my end at least. I am sorry you are unable to understand simple observations on actual comments and the game structure but your lack of comprehension doesn't make me guilty. So don't go making things up.

[Thinlómien]

That's pretty harsh, Mith. Are you implying you find theories of your guilt offensive? I'm sorry if I have offended you, but it does make playing this game a bit difficult if one cannot suspect you (and Nilp?) without you interpreting it as a personal attack.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

It would be very bold of a wolf to outline the reason for the night kill so soon on the next day, but Nilp is either doing just that or is unlucky enough to have stumbled upon the same tracks.

G55 'exculpated' by Nerwen's slaying indeed!

Your interpretation of the Nerwen-Lommy relationship looks like you're trying to shoehorn your 'go after Lommy' agenda where it's not wanted.

I've always thought of myself as a bold wolf, haha. And if I'm being used as the baddies's Pied Piper, well, that has happened before, too.

I don't get the 'where it's not wanted' bit, but I analysed Nerwen's post from the point of view of her as Seer-suspect, and those are the conclusions that I came up with.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The Kitwagon yesterDay - did seriously nobody at least stop to wonder that it is rather weird how huge and matter-of-factly smooth it has become? As in, I can see people voting for Kit, but I wonder if any of you had ever re-read her posts, or if it was just a spontaneous "let's go!" stuff. I have been wondering about her myself by the start of the Day, but after I managed to reread her posts, it really didn't seem that horrible - there surely were better candidates.

Hm, I remember using this tack before. In fact, you were in the altar then, and I was waving around saying 'let's not jump to conclusions, people, we have other villagers to look at.' I was a baddie then.

My vote for Kit, it wasn't because of her posts per se; it was the intention behind it that got me suspecting her.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Second, the obvious question, why Nerwen? I don't recall her posting anything specifically Ranger-ish, and Seer-ish, well, that would have to be determined - I don't recall, but it would be worth looking if she didn't say something specific about Lottie on the first Day or such (but she hadn't been around much). I haven't read through her posts yet, I am now just acting based on memory; I think that should be done, however. I am not sure if Nilp, despite announcing that he will attempt it, actually managed to find any response to his question, or then it is phrased in such a way that I can't read it there.

I didn't find any hints of her Ranger identity--no strange icons, no anagrams nor acrostics, or even the word 'protect' or its synonyms. Obviously she won't give out Seer hints--that's something an Ordo would more likely do, to distract the baddies--but my post analysing her posts came from the assumption that the baddies thought she was a Seer.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Actually Nilp, it's weird. You defended Lommy three times yesterday but today you're saying she "kinda looks bad now" because..... because Nerwen wasn't sure about her?

That's strange, even for you.

Again, that was from the point of view of Nerwen being seen as a Seer by the baddies, based on what should be their logical priorities. (see my pre-Nerwen analysis post.

If the baddies aren't playing that way, then, yay, I'm useless to this village save as NIGHT-kill fodder (but I hope the Seer can do an innnocent drop and win this village with numbers.)

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nilp's conviction of the Lottie-voters' innocence is weird because it's so strong. To me it starts to sound slightly like a wolf insistently buddying up with innocents (I think it's less likely that if Nilp is a wolf one of us is a wolf too - then I doubt he would attract so much attention to his defense of us).

I came to a logical conclusion that baddies won't do a Fenris fratricide. It's to help reduce the number of people I have to analyse, cos gone are the days when I'd print this thread up and scrutinise every word posted, hehe.

Besides, I appended my doubts to it in my analysis of the Lottie voters (in the DAY 1 vote count), but apparently, y'all don't read caveats cos they're like the new full stops.

Although, see, now I'm doubting it. So far as I can understand from what y'all are saying about her, Lottie is kinda like the Garin of old, always lynched, always within 3 DAYs. So who better to offer up to Fenrishood?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

[ . . . ]Nilp did his traditional self-vote in such a cowardly manner on Day1.

'Cowardly'? I did it differently, that's how I thought . . .

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That's pretty harsh, Mith. Are you implying you find theories of your guilt offensive? I'm sorry if I have offended you, but it does make playing this game a bit difficult if one cannot suspect you (and Nilp?) without you interpreting it as a personal attack.

No you are perfectly entitled to suspect me but it would be nice if the suspicions were based on my failings not yours. But no doubt this is just a feeble squeak.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I thought I was doing a pretty good Ranger impersonation. :-/

Than was the sentence that made my head explode yesterday when I quickly checked the thread to see who was killed.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

So, Sally (Eru give me strength), Bom, Mith, Eomer, and Greenie under the microscope.

So the first and last to vote Kit, and those who didn't vote her?

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Your interpretation of the Nerwen-Lommy relationship looks like you're trying to shoehorn your 'go after Lommy' agenda where it's not wanted.

Not wanted... by whom?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The Kitwagon yesterDay - did seriously nobody at least stop to wonder that it is rather weird how huge and matter-of-factly smooth it has become?

And another question: when did it truly become a wagon?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for other stuff, I would now still very much like to see Bom and have him recount what he was thinking when voting and if he had read the thread before it. To recapitulate, I find it extremely weird to vote Kitanna and say that it's a throwaway, even if he thought it was DL. It can be totally genuine, but it can also be a Wolf genuinely thinking it is DL and excusing himself for a throwaway vote. Anyway, it's just so random.

Ditto this.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I came to a logical conclusion that baddies won't do a Fenris fratricide.

Please explain your logic. I came to the conclusion that they may as well have done that, to look innocent - and if they have, they succeeded with you at least.


@ EVERYONE WHO TALKED ABOUT NERWEN: I think that she was just too careful about not giving a definite concusion to her posts (something Seerish?). Or she was just a very good player who did not look like she was going to be protected.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Please explain your logic. I came to the conclusion that they may as well have done that, to look innocent - and if they have, they succeeded with you at least.

It's DAY 1. Votes are going to be random. I won't do a statistical study, but I'd imagine that less baddies are killed on DAY 1 than in any other DAY.

I think that baddie-fratricide would be more beneficial when a more proper 'case' against a fellow baddie could be made, cos then the baddie-accuser could not be suspected of having hidden knowledge of who's who in the village. Again, this is from the (theoretical) logical standpoint.

But since apparently this Lottie gal attracts lynches that would make me jealous, I'm beginning to suspect if this theoretical logical situation applies at all. The baddies's latest kill drives home the point--why not kill one of the Lottie voters instead (since it gets rid of a trusted villager AND a possible Seer), unless one of them is a baddie?

BUT, argh, that could also be the reason (or one of the reasons) for their kill, to cast reasonable doubt on their presumed innocence--which however, this village has already taken with more than a few grains of salt. So meh.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nilp

'Cowardly'? I did it differently, that's how I thought . . .

Yes, differently - in a manner that put you in no danger of getting lynched. Hence I called it "cowardly" although of course it's not any more "cowardly" than voting someone else than yourself.

Currently slightly annoyed with the game and having stuff to do, shall be back way later but before the deadline though. When I'm back, expect more thoughts on Nerwen's death, the Kit-wagon and a list giving each villager their time in the spotlight.


edit: xed with Nilp

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

But since apparently this Lottie gal attracts lynches that would make me jealous, I'm beginning to suspect if this theoretical logical situation applies at all. The baddies's latest kill drives home the point--why not kill one of the Lottie voters instead (since it gets rid of a trusted villager AND a possible Seer), unless one of them is a baddie?

Why not kill one of Lottie-voters? Exactly because that's what is logical - they might be protected. And one can also wonder whether they did not suspect some WWs up to the point that the WWs thought it will be unwise to target them as it might be interpretated as trying to get rid of somebody who suspects them. Or whatever, the options are many.

Right now, a simple list of people:

GREEN ZONE
Nogrod - no change from yesterDay, looks okay.
Lommy - also still looking okay.

YELLOW ZONE
Greenie - not posted since yesterDay, therefore no change
Sally - ditto.

ORANGE ZONE
G55 - still wary, although I am a bit flip-flopping about her right now; some things she said lately sound more innocentish, but then some are sort of so general observations that they sound false (like basically seconding what I said and the stuff she says as conclusion about Nerwen also isn't anything really new and for some reason, it just strikes me as something a lazy Wolf could write without raising too much fuss and buzz)
Eomer - simply still wary of him, see above
Mithalwen - moving her here, with the yesterDay's total slipping under the radar (and previous) and not sure what to think of the overanalysing of Nerwen's kill (as mentioned above)
Nilp - moving him here too. His analyses don't really analyse anything, aside from that, there are some logical holes in his analyses, or he seems to have a tunnel vision - or then he is intentionally just keeping certain point of view. Like when he analysed Nerwen, it is nice to try if the WWs didn't think she was a Seer, but since it very much seems like they didn't, why not drop the assumption in favor of something more logical and try again, instead of wasting the effort on something which really does not seem to work? Anyway, the way he posts is just too chaotic with me - maybe it's not actual suspicion, but somehow disapproval of his style. More clearly phrased thoughts, please. A list from him about what he thinks about various people would be very nice, for example.

RED ZONE
waiting to be filled with people from above...

GREY ZONE
Bom - so, shall there be input? I am not in the true sense of the word suspecting him based on how he voted yesterDay (or rather what he said about the vote), but I would still really want to hear from him.

[Nogrod]

Way to go Lommy! I suspected Mith already yesterDay mainly because of the way she could be seen trying to help Lottie (while no one else did - and there are still two of her mates around!) and I have also felt a bit uneasy with some of her wolf's POV speculations, not that that couldn't or shouldn't be done, but they have been kind of "detailed" one wouldn't expect from an ordo. Also Nilp's comfortable defense of us three Lottie-lynchers is starting to border on feeling fake.

But you have more or less connected the dots to look like a believavle scenario - even if I think Mith is correct in that one facet of it she criticises you about. But her only pointing out that one thing - where she probably is right and you Lommy are not - looks a bit suspicious. Heh, she's actually not saying no to those other points but just disagrees where she knows she has it right, if you get what I mean (I think I expressed it quite confusedly to be honest).

This heightens my belief that G55 is innocent (nice spot Legate)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

So it's not only that I don't think Lottie as one who'd scheme against a fellow on D1 and that she didn't seem to me to be doing that when suspecting G55, but there's also this. i mean when a wolf decides to add some suspicion to her/his fellow s/he does well to have other (even one) innocent susect as well so that there is a possibility to have a choice with the voting as going blindly only aga9inst your mate would be stupid if fex. you had a possibility of lynching an innocnet instead with no fear for you and your mates or suspicions raised.

If Mith and Nilp are not our wolves, then I would also like to hear a lot more from Bom - and anyway some explanation to his vote yesterDay would be nice. Casting the first vote to someone who is the most suspected of all is no "throwaway" by any standards.

I don't find Eomer or Greenie especially suspicious, but I don't seem to have no reason to trust them either. Actually I'm a bit scared of Greenie (surprise! ) as she plays again that hunker down & lay low -game, but makes posts with enough reasoning to look like a person we should keep around unless something drastic comes her way.


okay, needs to go for now, but I'll be back later in the evening.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nilp's conviction of the Lottie-voters' innocence is weird because it's so strong. To me it starts to sound slightly like a wolf insistently buddying up with innocents (I think it's less likely that if Nilp is a wolf one of us is a wolf too - then I doubt he would attract so much attention to his defense of us).

Why did this bit give me a poke on my second read? Maybe because it sounds somewhat alike to what Sally kept saying about me?

And that's even more flipflopping on your part, Lommy.

Although I do agree that Nilp's belief is quite strong, and maybe even a bit blind.

Originally Posted by Legate

Limits to plausibility, indeed. The thing Mith says here seems a bit complicated to me, or a bit overanalysed. Are you sure you haven't thought of that together with your packmates at Night?

I think Mith was referring to this comment:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, looking at yesterDay's chaos of accusations, counter-accusations and passionate defences, it's interesting that apparently nobody looked more like the Seer to the wolves. Shasta's case on Lottie was built on in-game evidence– whereas, a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.

And also this one, which was said in reply to Mith's Ranger-twist post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That would explain a few things– it's been suggested the wolves thought Shasta was the Seer because of his case on Lottie and/or comments about Sally, but I find that unlikely (unless they panicked). It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

On hindsight, I can see these being typed by a worried Ranger - as Mith noted yesterDay, the wolves might not have gone for the most Seerish person around because of the Ranger twist. Perhaps she was protecting someone who defended/accused a person "at the drop of a hat", and Mith's post was a realisation that her job is much harder....

I disagree with a bit what Mith said today about these, though:

Originally Posted by Mith

In retrospect, Nerwen's comments yesterday wondering why Shasta looked Seerish to the wolves and saying she hadn't reckoned that the Seer might not be the wolves top priority might indicate that her own priority was working out the Seer not the wolves - which is the proper function of the Ranger.

I think Nerwen meant that the wolves' top priority - and therefore her priority at Night as well - might not be the Seer. (But during the Day, finding the Seer is back at the top.)

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

It's DAY 1. Votes are going to be random. I won't do a statistical study, but I'd imagine that less baddies are killed on DAY 1 than in any other DAY.

I think that baddie-fratricide would be more beneficial when a more proper 'case' against a fellow baddie could be made, cos then the baddie-accuser could not be suspected of having hidden knowledge of who's who in the village. Again, this is from the (theoretical) logical standpoint.

But since apparently this Lottie gal attracts lynches that would make me jealous, I'm beginning to suspect if this theoretical logical situation applies at all. The baddies's latest kill drives home the point--why not kill one of the Lottie voters instead (since it gets rid of a trusted villager AND a possible Seer), unless one of them is a baddie?

BUT, argh, that could also be the reason (or one of the reasons) for their kill, to cast reasonable doubt on their presumed innocence--which however, this village has already taken with more than a few grains of salt. So meh.

I still don't get this. Am I that thick, or is Nilp trying to find evidence where there isn't any? Someone help me please. His comments toDay are prone to make my head explode.

Edit: xed with Legate and Nog

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But you have more or less connected the dots to look like a believavle scenario - even if I think Mith is correct in that one facet of it she criticises you about. But her only pointing out that one thing - where she probably is right and you Lommy are not - looks a bit suspicious. Heh, she's actually not saying no to those other points but just disagrees where she knows she has it right, if you get what I mean (I think I expressed it quite confusedly to be honest).

I was lost less than halfway through. It is more than a bit confusing. Can you rephrase it please?

Am I just having a being-thick day?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Listy thing after a read-through of the entire thread, just so I get my priorities straight.

• Doubleplusgood

None - even those I used to trust I'm half-inclined to suspect now.

• Plusgood

Legate - Posts lists, which is good. And his lists aren't waffling things, but concrete expressions of what he thinks, which is plusgood. [My thoughts on his thoughts regarding me after the list.]

• Good

Sally - She jump-started serious discussion on DAY 1 with her infamous declaration. And she has given me no reason to suspect her now.

• Doubleplusunsure

Nogrod - On one hand, baddie-slayer and reasonable chap. On the other hand, this (the 3rd to the last paragraph) feels like a hand that guides the bandwaggon--without him getting on it (q.v.).

Lommy - My possible Nerwen scenario (that apparently only makes sense in my head) lends to the possibility of her Fenris-ing Lottie. On the other hand, her reason for that vote (that Shasta's case sounded reasonable) sounds plausible, since I do it as an Ordo, too.

Bom - Strange plan to vote for Sally on DAY 1. Strange Kit vote on DAY 2. Absentmindedness points to an Ordo, but one never knows.

Mith - Seems a little too concerned with the rules that I can't read her.

• Ungood

G55 - My confused Ordo view of her is wavering, since she seems to be in the middle of a lot of scenarios . . .

Greenie - Her list on DAY 2 has me wondering. (Her silence is normal, though, tee-hee.)

Eomer - His almost single-minded attack of G55 (2 votes in 2 DAYs) feels like a baddie sweeping his trail. I don't know what to make of his renewed vigour toDAY though.

• Plusungood

None, apparently.

• Doubleplusungood

No alarms screaming 'baddie alert' in my head from y'all (unlike from Kit yesterday.)

~*~

Hm, I've been ad hominem-ed way too many times in my WW career that, were I less of a cloudcuckoolander, I'd start questioning if I should start changing myself.

Note to self: 'If you wish to play WW again, remember this game. The desire will pass.'

Meh, I'll vote for myself (or back out, depending on my mood) if I still feel this way after a night's sleep. Sorry.

(/人 ◕ ‿‿ ◕ 人\ I'll catch you a Werewolf, if you make a contract with me!)

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Note to self: 'If you wish to play WW again, remember this game. The desire will pass.'

*hugs*....I know what you mean. But be to thine own self be true. Don't be bullied out.

[A Little Green]

Phew, here at last. Honestly, guys, what was that yesterDay?

Originally Posted by Mith

Crossed since Greenie.... Eomer ? Reasons? In her list she suspects him mainly due to something Lommie said. *wrinkles nose* Maybe she is anti knights errant. Or a throw away?

Not quite, and I like knights, anyway. More like, I needed to go to sleep and had no idea who I'd vote, so I chose to go without explanation for someone I was vaguely uneasy about - fishing for reactions while if he was in fact lynched we would not be lynching anyone I believed innocent. As it is, the reaction-fishing mainly proved that he didn't seem to make much of it at all. I'm torn between finding him a manipulative baddie and a laid back innocent.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm getting uneasy with this, even if there are reasons staring right at my eyes there. This Kit-wagon looks like too opportunistic even if popular wagons hjave caught baddies too. But now something feels really odd in here.

++ Mith

I should have known that my finding Nog innocent can't last long, and the above is pretty much what gave me second thoughts. He washes his hands of the Kit-wagon after suspecting her pretty much all Day, fuelling the bandwagon without being de facto a member of it. Really makes me raise my eyebrows.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think I will vote Eomer... but somehow I'm now thinking that the remaining WWs are Mith and Bom. Would make sense, anyway.

Well, this doesn't. I mean, if you think Mith and Bom are the remaining wolves, why vote for Eomer? Especially seeing as I believe Mith had as many votes at that point as Eomer did.

Originally Posted by Nog

Actually I'm a bit scared of Greenie (surprise! ) as she plays again that hunker down & lay low -game, but makes posts with enough reasoning to look like a person we should keep around unless something drastic comes her way.

The "hunker down & lay low -game" is also known as work.

[satansaloser2005]

See, this is what happens when I can't actually catch up on the Day properly. Yeah, I suspected Kit, but I may have voted differently if I'd been able to read everything. (Okay, probably not, but I still don't like being behind.) Bother.

Anyway, there's no changing what's happened, only getting it right this time. I'm sure if we all do our best toDay to get a wolf, and try not to vote all in like ten minutes, we'll have a much better outcome. (I'm a bit ill this morning, hence the psych trip.)


I need to take a good look at everyone, and it SEEMS like I'll have the time in the next few hours, so hopefully I can work up a good list of suspicions.


Come on, wolves, what did Nerwen ever do to you?


EDIT: I had this post open in my browser for ages, so despite being so short I still cross-posted like mad. :/

[A Little Green]

So who do we have here?

Bom - Uninvolved. I doubt he's evil though, I'd think he would make more of an effort if he was.

Eomer - An enigma for me. His gallantry could go either way - helpful innocent or manipulative baddie - and the same goes for his response to my out-of-the-blue voting for him. (His only reaction to that being that he found me innocent.) I see both a genial innocent and a wolf's attempt to appear unconcerned at the threat and at the same time trying to raise doubts in me by saying I look innocent. Gah. I don't know what to make of his Gal-fixation, either.

Galadriel - More innocent than not at the moment.

Legate - Until he returns to shed some light on his yesterDay's reasoning I will refrain from forming an opinion.

Lommy - Still looks like a solid innocent Lommy to me.

Mith - A tough nut to crack. She has slipped under my radar I'm afraid, and though others have made shrewd points about her I don't want to form an opinion until having a look of my own.

Nilp - I never seem to be able to read him. Might want a closer look.

Nog - His conduct regarding the Kit-wagon was alarming. Otherwise he has seemed fine to me.

Sally - I seem to say "I don't know" about everyone. I still think her "ordo-reveal" seemed more innocent than not, but there is other stuff that counts against her - mainly that she tends to suspect primarily those who question her and seemed really anxious to break any possible ties between herself and Gal.

[A Little Green]

Where is everybody? As a friend of mine just put it, you're obviously all wolves since you only post by night. I think I'll have a look at the Kit-wagon now.

[A Little Green]

My quick look at the Kit-wagon would have proved more fruitful if I'd have had time to read through the entire Day instead of just the voting. Still, a few observations.

BOM began the wagon with the famous "anyway, throwaway vote". I still have little idea of just how little he knew of what was going on.
GAL was the second to vote for Kit, putting her in the lead. She had been pretty consistent in her suspicion all Day if I remember correctly.
(NOG votes Mith after consistently making arguments against Kit. I have already expressed my concern over this.)
LOMMY complains, in length, about how bad her choices are, and ends up with voting Kit because she prefers lynching her to lynching Eomer. Her vote breaks a draw between the two and puts Kit to the lead again.
NILP, in a hurry, explains his vote with "Previous blinkly-light thing still stands." I suppose this refers to earlier suspicion of Kit.
NERWEN is also running out of time, posting her vote at exactly the DL. Since she's a dead Gifted I didn't feel the need to check her previous posts for reasons.
SALLY is likewise in a hurry and votes at the DL, but admittedly she had consistently suspected Kit.

[satansaloser2005]

At a quick glance....

My dark prince is clearly innocent. Applying meta-logic, a wolf Nilp wouldn't drop out of a game. Without the meta-logic, however, I still find him to be an ally rather than a villain. I'll be quite cross with anyone who attempts to lynch him.

Mither-in-law's reactions to suspicion of her are unnecessarily strong, to the point of being a bit rude. Is she trying to hide her guilt? It could be so. Her insistence that not knowing the rules (or pretending not to know them) is such a huge deal, her constant suspicion of myself and Bom, and then her (to me) detached votes? It looks far too planned, too much like she's trying to play the disagreeable little mage who dislikes everyone's styles and causes just enough fuss to look like she cares, when in reality she doesn't care who dies (as long as it's not her packmates, mind you).

If Mith is a wolf, Nog probably isn't (based on his confusing yet logical post #340). However, his hesitation to follow the Kit wagon does look fishy. I'm trying to decide if it was a legitimate fear that the lynch was too easy, or if he had more sinister motives. I'm leaning toward the latter, but as I've said I also don't think he and Mith would be in the same pack, so I can't decide which I suspect more. Lynching one would likely prove the innocence or guilt of the other, if nothing else.

I'm not really that ready to make any sort of case on anyone else, which is why I'm not mentioning them more explicitly. However, I will offer a list to share my blase little hunches on them all (which will of course change once I take a good look at everyone).



Guiltier:
Mith
Nog

Coming to the dark side:
Galadriel (I'm thinking it may be her newness rather than guilt, but I'm still wary)

May have stolen my pudding:
Lommy
Legate
Bom (so little to go on, and what he has written is pretty useless, his weird Kit vote aside)

Likely not lupine:
Eomer (I keep flip flopping on this, but I'm inclined to think him innocent at the moment)
Greenie (looks agreeable as well as not guilty, so I'll definitely not vote her toDay)
Nilp





I have to make some more phone calls, so I'll be out....again....for a bit. Sorry.

[Galadriel55]

#51 - comments on the "Sally-Bom business". bis more innocent than not. Thinks Bom's post is fishier than Sally's ordo reveal, but doubts his guilt because so many people suspect him. Calls Nerwen careful and neutral. Questions some parts of Kit's post about her suspicions for Bom and Sally, but agrees with others. Argues with some of my statements about the matter.

#54 - nothing useful

#62 - replies to my reply to her first post.

#65 - votes Bom because he intended to vote Sally for her "DeathWish".

D2

#227 - comments on different posts

#228 - list. Nerwen, Mith, and Nilp are unknown. The others are either "leaning innocent" or she's "confused about" them.

#229 - nothing useful

#235 - Nerwenalysis. No definite conclusion: could go either way.

#236 - again nothing useful

#238 - votes Eomer. She called him "crafty" in her list and said that he confuses her.

D3

#345 - explains her Eomer vote and makes some very keen points.

#374 - another list. What differs from the previous list:

-Questions Legate about his reasoning yesterDay, doesn't want to form an opinion before he explains (on the previous list Legate was his "wishy-washy self" and there was no certain opinion.)

-Thinks me more innocent that not (whereas before she was torn about me.)

-Alarmed about Nog's role in the Kitwagon (otherwise the same as in the last list)

The opinion about other people didn't change much.

#348 - nothing much

#349 - Kitwagon summary.


Conclusion: I have very little to say about Greenie except that she made some good points. Both of her votes were sort of random, but she explained them, and I'll leave it at that for now. So far she sounds innocentish, but her votes still bug me a little. So she safely stays in my "yellow" category.

Edit: xed with Sally

[A Little Green]

Just my luck. I'm the only one here for over an hour, then people appear just as I'm going to bed. Anyway, I'm not at all sure about this, but since I want to base my vote on an actual logical reason instead of a vague fishy feeling I haven't havd the time to check properly, my vote will go to

++ Nogrod

[A Little Green]

I'm going now, but fully expect to be more around toMorrow if I'm still alive. Good night sweethearts.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

At a quick glance....


Mither-in-law's reactions to suspicion of her are unnecessarily strong, to the point of being a bit rude. Is she trying to hide her guilt? It could be so. Her insistence that not knowing the rules (or pretending not to know them) is such a huge deal, her constant suspicion of myself and Bom, .

You know what I find rude? Calling people weird and strange or Ms. or cowards or feeble. I have found you suspicious because you have behaved suspiciously. I find not knowing the rules suspicious and what do you know the person who claimed not to know the rules was a wolf.

Oh and the other thing I find rude is really puerile nicknames so as far as you are concerned I am Mithalwen, I really can't be bothered when the game consists of pointless lists and waiting to the last minute and then jumping on any passing bandwagon. I'd rather listen to yesterday in Parliament or do the washing up. This game is "Huis Clos" and will be unbearable if Nilp is driven off.

Whatever.

[Inziladun]

C'mon now folks. Let's not have the acrimony. You don't want to displease the Master, do you?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

C'mon now folks. Let's not have the acrimony. You don't want to displease the Master, do you?

I bloody love you.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I bloody love you.

Danke schön, and back atcha.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

C'mon now folks. Let's not have the acrimony.

Exactly. I have only skimmed bits and pieces along the day as I have been busy elsewhere, lately writing my Arda Cup 2011 post for the games in Valmar which took soo much longer I expected...

But really. This has been so gentlemanly (gentlewomanly) sport for such a long time I'm a bit confused where all this is coming from. There were some incidences years ago where people got hurt and we made those WW-guidelines and all that - and I thought they worked, and they have worked.

So what's up now?

I think Lommy has not been the most cordial in her choice of expressions (which knowing her I find hard to be any evidence of an ill will: she surely didn't want to upset anyone, not to talk of hurting anyone), but I do find Nilp and Mithalwen over-reacting a bit as well.

Let's now come back to square one, shall we? Nilp stays in the game, Mithalwen let's the bad feelings go and Lommy watches her tongue, right?


On another issue, this turns out to be a bad day for me as I have to wake up at 7AM tomorrow so I need to quit and vote around midnight/1AM the latest, meaning two to three hours before the DL. If I'm around on D4 I can stay to the very end "in compensation"...

Well, diving into read the posts of toDay I have not read and then hopefully having something to say about the game itself.

[satansaloser2005]

Go to bed, Noggins.


I'm looking at all the votes right now, and will probably be back with a post shortly.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Go to bed, Noggins.

Heh, it's only past eleven... You'll have to stand me for an hour or so.