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02-13-2008, 04:44 PM | #281 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Sure, that may be selfish, but that's how it is. |
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02-13-2008, 04:46 PM | #282 | |||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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Well, not quite sure, Nog. As you can see from my post, it is possible that he dreamt of Rikae on Night 1 and Shasta on Night 2, and if Shasta is innocent and Menel revealed that, it would explain why he suddenly ceased to suspect him. Your explanation of things also sounds possible, but surely not 100% certain. And I am not aware whether he referred to you that often; in fact, he once referred to LG and mistook her with you. Maybe, but not necessarily sure. edit: x-posted since my last post. Keep x-posting. Johnny x-poster.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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02-13-2008, 04:49 PM | #283 |
Mellifluous Maia
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By the way, Nogrod should be lynched just for being so dreadfully chauvinistic!
EDIT: X'd with Legate |
02-13-2008, 04:58 PM | #284 |
Werewolf Psychic
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Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
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I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?
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02-13-2008, 05:02 PM | #285 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I love you Rikae!
Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos* Quote:
Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do. So it's not 100%... and in the end it doesn't matter as if the wolves think it plausible enough for many enough people here they will kill me the next Night anyway. There's no ranger to protect an almost-known innocent. Just noticed this: Quote:
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02-13-2008, 05:15 PM | #286 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
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I also think he might have dreamt of Gwath that night. He's fixed on the idea that wolves were responsible for Agan's lynching, but he absolves Gwath very easily (when, as I pointed out yesterday, Gwath had a vote placement that was both safe, and influential - as well as basically unexplained.) Menel dismisses the idea of Gwath being a wolf with: Quote:
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02-13-2008, 05:25 PM | #287 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
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By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful. |
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02-13-2008, 05:31 PM | #288 | ||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Well, I am probably going to leave now and go to sleep - I felt surprisingly fresh and I did not even realise what the time is; and suddenly it fell on me. edit: x-ed with Rikae twice
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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02-13-2008, 05:44 PM | #289 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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It's really getting late but I think I need to make this point before I go.
Now in the end of the Day2 the situation was a follows. -11 minutes Rikae2, Sally1 -4 minutes Rikae2, Mac2, Sally1 Of those not voted yet at that time we knew that Rikae, Mac and myself were around - no one else had given any sign of being there. So where were you Rikae? If you were an ordo actually convinced that Mac was an ordo too you would have made an effort - to suggest Mac a deal like you had the earlier Day or to ask my views. You could have saved Mac easily with suggesting a vote on Sally. I don't blame you for not voting her as her quite emotional posts at the end of the Day had gotten all of us quite startled. But if you "knew" Mac was innocent why didn't you post in to ask for ideas? The three of us could have lynched anyone at that point. Or was Sally in the end your co-wolf and thence you did not vote for her? That would indeed explain a bit more why Menel was killed. In the end of Day2 he said quite comfortably that Mac, Rikae and Sally were the three wolves. He was wrong with Mac but hitting the nail in the head two times after two dreams was enough for the wolves? I still believe that was not the case and that Menel came up with Sally during the gameplay on Day2. Those of you who have played with him before know his style of being quite uncomptromising to put it mildly. He didn't come up with things to say about Sally until about the half-day, saying: Quote:
But the wolves couldn't ignore that - so Menel was a dead man. And even if Sally is an ordo (which she can be) - Menel was a dead man still because of his attack on Rikae that was "seery" enough. In any case at certain point the wolves can be quite cool at those in the end discussions - even able to just look on what happens with a grin only ready to intervene if something drastic is going to happen. Rikae's actions in the end of Day2 look very wolvish indeed even without Menel's stance on her. Quote:
But honestly, what could we learn from there? To other innocents he was a non-known (so possibly a wolf or an ordo) and to wolves a possible (good) lynchée. What can you say of it? I know that if we lynch a wolf there's lots to read there about the interaction as we can see how the wolve's fellows possibly treated her/him, but? By no means do look. All things count. One never knows what one can find but certainly this looks more like a distraction than anything else. Sorry Rikae. Edit: X'd with Legate
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02-13-2008, 05:51 PM | #290 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Here Legate goes again, narrowing the field. I was suspicious yesterday, with his singular focus on Mac and I, that he intended to lynch one yesterday and the other toDay, and the choice of kill last Night certainly fits that profile. Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalaure was the only logical lynch yesterDay, he words everything as if there were no question, toDay, who Menel dreamt of and when.
It's funny how Nerwen said yesterDay that she needed "a lot more" to go on before she'd consider lynching Legate - the fact is, he is not the sort to slip up in any obvious way. The sneaky, subtle manipulation of perspectives is his style of evil, and it's all over him here. I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ... I'm going to have a closer look at these thrree. Sally does make sense as Menel's night 2 dream, considering his day 2 conspiracy theory, and Nogrod has me fairly convinced he was dreamt of on day one (even though it works in his favor.) I'll be back with more, but maybe not right away -- I've got quite a lot to do this evening in RL. EDIT: x'd with Nogrod and fixed a typo Last edited by Rikae; 02-13-2008 at 05:55 PM. |
02-13-2008, 05:59 PM | #291 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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If I had offered Mac a deal, it might have sealed my fate, and wouldn't have been enough anyway - three votes were needed, and anyone could come in at any time and lynch either of us. |
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02-13-2008, 06:02 PM | #292 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Oh yeah, and:
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It hardly helps me, since I would have known he was innocent as a wolf even more than as an ordo -- and you'll note I didn't analyze him myself. |
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02-13-2008, 06:04 PM | #293 |
Mellifluous Maia
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02-13-2008, 06:12 PM | #294 |
Shade with a Blade
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I am beginning to lean this way myself.
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Stories and songs. |
02-13-2008, 06:30 PM | #295 | |||||||||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf? Also toDay that strategy is worthwhile. If Rikae makes a case on a fellow Legate and is lynched then Legate looks good. And if for some miraculous reason Rikae is not lynched but Legate is, then Rikae looks better. And as we can't afford too many mislynches anymore then any confusion is playing to the wolves' cause. Quote:
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Good night now... AUCH! Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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02-13-2008, 06:40 PM | #296 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment.
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The Modly Disclaimer
There has been a bit of a misunderstanding between Roa and I. I asked her to check half hour after the deadline to see if I had posted, and if not start/end the day herself and then she told me to let her know if I knew I'd be skipping a deadline. I assumed that was in addition to her checking, so that she could have a bit of warning and the day would start when scheduled. What happened to me this morning was that I was bed-ridden from eight to ten due to severe back pain (and I mean "severe" as in "if I got up and tried to walk, I'd get dizzy") and then I had to rush to school. I thought by then Roa would've checked the thread and my day was rather busy up until now, so I really had no time to check the thread. There are two alternatives as far as what we can do with this day. I would be able to end it 24 hours after it started today (1 30 PM my time tomorrow) but we cannot keep that as a deadline, as I'll sure won't be anywhere near a computer during my trip at 1 PM. If the wolves agree, we can have the day last for 24 hours and the following night last only until the regular deadline. To make it up for them, the wolves would be able to pm for the first three hours of the folowing day. I think that is a fair deal, and it doesnt give them the advantage of being able to communicate during voting time. Of course, the wolves should PM me their thoughts, and any ordos who object should do the same. Doctor says I should be fine by tomorrow and I feel a lot better already, there will hopefully be no more major problems with the deadlines.
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02-13-2008, 06:50 PM | #297 | |||
Mellifluous Maia
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02-13-2008, 06:58 PM | #298 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
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Tentative thoughts include a Rikae/Sally/Nerwen trio.
And Rikae is right. No one so far has done a real analysis of Mac. I shall return with thoughts from my point of view, but perhaps more than one would be useful.
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02-13-2008, 07:00 PM | #299 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Quick Summary de Sally. Sorry to be so brief, but I need to toddle off to church or I'll be late. These are just iniitial thoughts, so don't be surprised if I actually fully read the posts and change my mind on a couple things. But at least it'll give you all something to go on while I'm away.
Menel's Dream guess for Night one: Rikae. Result? Wolf. He cranks up the suspicion notch on her quite a bit, and doesn't back off her no matter what. Menel's Dream guess for Night two: Shasta???? Result? Innocent. Big question mark on this one, but I'll give a better guess later. But he seems to disregard any possibility of a Shastawolf after this Night. It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise. My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie. No worries, I'll try to explain later as promised. Happy discussion while I'm away. P.S. I'm sorry you haven't been feeling well, Farael. Don't worry about the game, we understand that sometimes RL just plain gets in the way. No big deal. Make sure to feel better though, or we'll have your hide.
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Last edited by satansaloser2005; 02-13-2008 at 07:01 PM. Reason: x'd with Rikae and Cabbie. off I go.... |
02-13-2008, 07:22 PM | #300 | |||||
Mellifluous Maia
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Ok, I'm really starting to think I'm on to something with Sally. I originally pretty much ignored her because I actually try to work against the knee-jerk impulse to lynch weird, hard to understand people, as they usually turn out innocent. But Menel's behavior yesterday fits with the possibility of her wolvishness, and now... look at this:
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A lesser point, but also, what is this? Quote:
EDIT: Fixing messed-up paragraph spacing. |
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02-13-2008, 07:46 PM | #301 | ||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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And actually, I agree we should look at the Mac voters (yes, Rikae, including me), and at last night's voting in general. There are three wolves, after all. Quote:
Edit: X'd with Rikae. |
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02-13-2008, 08:25 PM | #302 | |
Shade with a Blade
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Nerwen and Legate seem the most wolfish to me, at the moment. They have played it pretty safe so far. If they are wolves, then the most suspicious thing they've done was both voting to kill Macalaure...but, of course, most of us suspected him at some point yesterDay, so maybe it was a safe move? Sally or A Little Green might be the third wolf. On the one hand, Sally, as Rikae pointed out, has acted funny enough to merit inspection. On the other hand, LG voted with Nerwen and Legate to kill Mac...which could be either a point for or against her, since one could argue that all three wolves wouldn't vote together. Or perhaps they would, because they knew we thought they wouldn't...? Bother. It seems probably to me that Menel dreamed about Nogrod the first night, and so we should count him innocent. Yeah, lotsa questions.
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Stories and songs. Last edited by Gwathagor; 02-13-2008 at 08:27 PM. Reason: Bad Grammar |
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02-13-2008, 09:59 PM | #303 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
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As for Rikae – there always the chance that she's innocent, the victim of an unusual set of circumstances– including very odd conduct from the Seer– which has made her the perfect victim. But I'd say it's a small chance indeed. Don't count anyone as definitely innocent. One third of the surviving players are wolves, remember. |
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02-13-2008, 10:06 PM | #304 | ||||
Mellifluous Maia
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Now Nerwen, no need to take that tone. After all, you're hardly in immediate danger of lynching today.
Still, if you go on coming up with absurdities, you might just change that... Quote:
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Since I mentioned Nerwen/Legate/Sally, both the ladies have given me more reason to believe in it. Quote:
EDIT: X'd with Nerwen. |
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02-13-2008, 10:40 PM | #305 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
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From the O.E.D: Quote:
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02-13-2008, 10:52 PM | #306 | |
Shade with a Blade
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What do you think, Legate? Who should we lynch?
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Stories and songs. |
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02-13-2008, 10:57 PM | #307 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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What an uneventful birthday.
Anyway, I'm still leery of voting Rikae becacuse of her reaction to the votes against Mac yesterday. To me, they seemed like something an innocent would say. But the antics of Menel as Seer are hard to ignore. I'm wondering if maybe we shouldn't take a look at some of those people saying less than usual... Lily, McCaber, Gwathagor, for example. Having brought up Lily, I'd like it noted that something about the back-and-forth between her and Nerwen on Day 1 seemed.... I don't know, choreographed? I could be completely wrong here, but that's just my impression. I'm getting the smallest similar vibe from Nerwen and Rikae today. Again, could be completely way of base, but I think a Nerwen/Lily/Rikae trio has possibilities. Since I have to vote right now, for fear of modfire, and there are many others who believe Rikae to be guilty, I'm going to place another option up. A "just in case something turns up", but also someone I'm a bit suspicious of. ++Nerwen |
02-13-2008, 11:06 PM | #308 |
Shade with a Blade
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Happy birthday Shastanis. Aman minyare! It's actually my dad's as well, as well as one of my friend's. Popular day.
I want to hear from more people...but, I suppose everyone will be on tonight while I am asleep.
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Stories and songs. |
02-13-2008, 11:10 PM | #309 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Talk, talk, talk. All this talk and nothing really resolved. Pity.
First of all, a nice little short announcement/plea/whatever you want to call it. Please, please, PLEASE let's not have a repeat of the last two days. By this I mean let's not have people being added to the lynch list at *clears throat* a minute before deadline and half the village not even showing up to vote until a quarter til. I'm sorry, but that's just ridiculous. I'm beginning to see the connection between Rikae and Nerwen more and more clearly now. They seem rivals, yes? But I think this isn't the case, far from it in fact. They've been on opposite ends for a while now (quite handy wolf strategy) and now I think one, if not both, of them are threatened with a noose and so it's in their best interest to push themselves even farther apart. See today's discussion. Back and forth, back and forth between those two. It just seems to staged. Or is that just me? Oh, and Shasta, thanks for pointing out the exchanges between Greenie and Nerwen as well. I'll have to look into them. Apologies, but my posting's been interrupted. A friend of mine student teaches and needs some help putting together some valentines for her little miscreants....I mean, students. I'll be back later. Post lots and lots while I'm gone! P.S. Happy birthday Shasta! I'm sorry it wasn't terribly eventful, but I hope you had a good day nonetheless, boring though it may be. Good night!
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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02-13-2008, 11:56 PM | #310 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 831
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I return from my evening prayers to find that my computer has reset itself.
Well, about my Macanalysis. Basically I thought that he was pushed by the village and misguided by wolves into a pretty bad position. It seemed to me as if Rikae manipulated him by taking his side and Nerwen led the attack from the mob. I would speak more, but my studies are demanding. I will think, write, and report as time allows.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. Last edited by McCaber; 02-14-2008 at 12:18 AM. |
02-14-2008, 12:35 AM | #311 |
Shade with a Blade
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I am about to retire for the evening. If anyone's interested in my current position, it is this: I will either vote for Legate or Nerwen. I think Rikae is innocent.
Let's get a wolf this time.
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Stories and songs. |
02-14-2008, 12:48 AM | #312 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Terribly sorry, but my friend just left and I'm quite tired. I think I'll go to bed for now. Since that's the case, I also am not in the mood to make a snazzy long-winded post, so I'll just give some quick feedback and some feelings I'm getting from the last few posts.
I don't like Gwath's last few posts (save the one about Shasta's birthday). Up until today, he was holding his own and ready to vote for whoever he found guilty regardless of whether other people approved of his votes. Today, he specifically asks Legate, "Who do you think we should lynch?" I'm not (or at least don't think I am) suggesting a wolf pair here, but I think Gwath's sudden change into codependency should be noted. Also, I find it odd how he just dismisses Rikae in his last post without another thought, even though she's getting quite a lot of attention. It's almost as if he's trying to look too obvious, attempting to slip past the metal detectors by wearing an impermeable and steel-toed boots. I just don't like the way things are adding up here. Okay, off to bed now. Sorry I've been so slack-adaisical toDay, but it's my busiest day of the week classwise so I've been preoccupied. I'll try to post more in the morning before I skedaddle to work, but alas it may only be another quick post and vote session. Sleep well, my fellow pesky Americans!
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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02-14-2008, 01:01 AM | #313 |
Shade with a Blade
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I better stick up for myself now, lest Sally's post turn into a lynch mob while I am asleep.
I asked Legate's opinion because his response would help me figure out what I think of him. Kind of a ranging shot, to see how he reacts. The only reason I'm saving my vote is that if I cast it now, it is easier for other voters to act against it, and I want to make sure that it's as effective as possible. Then again, everyone seems to be voting at the last minute anyway, so perhaps it won't do me much good. Good night.
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Stories and songs. |
02-14-2008, 01:47 AM | #314 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Some thoughts:
If Rikae is a wolf, why did she vote for me? At that time, it ran thus: Mac 2, Rikae 2, Sally 1, Gwath 1. So Rikae had a need to save herself. She could hardly vote Mac after defending him all Day– but why not Gwath or Sally? Sally was under quite a lot of suspicion, and had already voted Rikae. And then there's the late vote by McCaber. Could the wolves be Rikae, McCaber and someone else who failed to vote (but whom they were expecting)? ...but then we're back with the problem of why they didn't vote Sally or Gwath. If Rikae is not a wolf, then who did Menel dream of on Night2? And why did he behave as he did? |
02-14-2008, 02:01 AM | #315 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
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Nerwen, I woke up three minutes before the DL and needed to vote fast. Either you or Mac I would have been fine with, and you were the first that came to mind. (And I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for my meddling alarm clock)
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
02-14-2008, 02:30 AM | #316 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I'm in a hurry but just remainding you people.
Menel was the seer. He suspected Rikae on Day1 - with some reservations at least in the beginning but enough to give his vote to her in the end. He jumped on Rikae with full force - with no reservations whatsoever from the beginning of Day2. Need we say more? Night2 dream = Rikae = wolf. She plays beautifully and kudos for that but there are just facts contradicting her words. Only Menel acting in the most weird and unresponsible way could change that assessment. And he's a seasoned player.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
02-14-2008, 03:43 AM | #317 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Look, at this point it would take a lot to convince me not to vote Rikae– but weird things do happen sometimes.
If she's a wolf, who are the others? I mean, there's Legate, Lily and McCaber (and you, Nogrod), who've been creeping around in the background most of the time. You'd think at least one wolf would be trying that. Then there's Sally– apart from everything else against her, Rikae has a point here: Quote:
Finally, there's this Gwathagor character. What is he up to? I wish I had time to read through everything, but I can't. I've got an audition tomorrow. Edit: fixed bolding. |
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02-14-2008, 04:09 AM | #318 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,506
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If you wish, I think Menel's suspicion on Rikae was based on his dreams, either on Night 1 or 2, and therefore, I think she is a Wolf. Of all the people, I am most convinced about her. Otherwise, there is Sally, whom I suspect still, also counting with the voting patterns: it was already mentioned here; Rikae could have voted her, yet chose not to. So that's also one more reason to lynch her, as I believe if Rikae is indeed a Wolf, Sally might be very likely as well.
Before anything happens, I won't be as fast to jump into conclusions who the last wolf might be (and that is, we don't even know about these two). But these two I find likely to be connected. Now, I can't say I would be 100% sure of anyone's innocence, as after reading toDay's posts, it may be almost either way. But all the lines go to Rikae, as I said, of all I am most convinced about her.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
02-14-2008, 05:22 AM | #319 | |||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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(#294, replying to Rikae's suggestion that the wolves are Sally, Nerwen & Legate) (#302) Quote:
(#306) So he's all for lynching Legate, then he's asking him how to vote. (#311) Quote:
Then Sally says: Quote:
and he responds: (#313) Quote:
Ideas, anyone? Is he just very confused, or is there something more to it? Edit: word left out. |
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02-14-2008, 05:45 AM | #320 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,506
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Nerwen, I don't think there is anything particularly suspicious in Gwathagor's actions. I believe he is only, as you say, confused. As a new player, such things are possible. Yet you are right that he was a voting option back then as well. Anyway, we cannot collect much from it as long as we don't know identities of the concerned people.
EDIT: One technical question. Roa posted one version of DL time with the narration, Farael proposed something different here. Which one will be the real DL? And Farael, do I understand it right that your version is 7:30 PM GMT?
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories Last edited by Legate of Amon Lanc; 02-14-2008 at 06:02 AM. |
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