Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Eönwë]

Just to clarify how the empowering thing would work (since there's been some discussion):

1. Let's assume we start with today's living as the options. First of all, we alphabetise the list (toDay is an even Day so it's in Z->A order). That gives us:

Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil. This gives us:

If the person is PREY:
Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote

If the person is a PREDATOR:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88


3. Then, based on whether the Target (i.e. the person whose role was found out the Night before) is innocent or guilty, someone who is a known innocent (i.e. someone genuinely found out to be an innocent, or if no such person appears, a Night kill, e.g. Morsul - I assume the Dead Thread can come up with a system, but my suggestion would be to cycle through those lynched and definitively proven to be innocent) picks which of the people in the appropriate PREDATOR or PREY list is voted.

Of course, if we want to be particularly careful about the list (and possibly EW attempts at manipulation), we could, for example, after Day 4 (since this will only start on Day 3), decide to use a different ordering, e.g. Kuru's narration order (forwards one day, backwards the next), and so on.

edit: x-ed since my last.

[Eönwë]

Also, just to clarify the other part, the idea was that the Target would be the non-Night-killed-person in the Dead Thread who has been there the longest and has not had their role revealed should be picked.

I say non-Night-killed because while it's an interesting idea, it seems pretty crazy to imagine the EW Night-killing one of their own, and even if they did, it seems even more unlikely that it could happen more than once (once they're down to non-replenishable wolves), and one wouldn't screw up the system enough to make much a difference.

edit: x-ed since my last.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Pros (for the side of evil):
- EW-Lottie doesn't get found out as EW as soon.
- Strong wolf presence in the Dead Thread in the form of Boro (with 3 more future potential-wolves to spare!).

It is not so crazy a theory, although would be really bold. The "strong presence in the form of Boro" would make sense in terms of how Boro has been acting here (and I am sure he would be quite a presence), but that is very little to base the whole thing on, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Interesting idea. While we're throwing out ideas that have been (I assume) percolating all Day, I would like to say that out of everyone here, you're the one who feels the most different compared to yesterDay. Also, that you would have been a great candidate to have been turned last Night, since as far as I can tell you were vaguely trusted by a majority of the village - and that killing Morsul offered you pretty good cover. With everyone's eyes on me as the major proponent of the no lynch, your involvement didn't garner any discussion at all. Whereas yesterDay you were at the front of discussion, toDay I feel like you've been trying to blend into the background more.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

I wanted to respond to Lottie, but basically Lommy said it pretty well. It is true that yesterDay, he was much more all over the place posting his suggestions. I think Lommy also has a point in that if he really seemed to be trusted, he would be an obvious pick to make a Wolf out of, but exactly the question is if that would have been too obvious. But also upon re-reading his posts, I am not sure if there is such a big difference in his style. He re-posted some of his yesterDay's charts, then he commented here and there on the proceedings. That style does not differ so much in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil.

Ok, I really don't want to talk about this this little before DL, but just a note - are we sure "prey" and "predator" equal "good" and "evil"? Because if so, why not use such terms. (In other words, like what might e.g. a Ranger, or even more a Hunter identify as. That's a very "predatory" role.)

Ok! Off to finish going through toDay's posts and then I will try to also figure out something sensible out of this and vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some bunch of people somewhere around since my last probably

[Nerwen]

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

I think yes, but I also think we should figure that out rather in the first half of toMorrow when people are anyway going to be slow about getting to lynching business, not less than two hours before the deadline (as no one is going to be empowered toDay anyway).

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by nogrod

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

Yes I messed that up in an earlier post. You're right. It's 3am Finnish time.

I'm gonna vote now, and I became very unsure about Zil/Nerwen, so:

++Eönwe

if you're lynched we will remember your dead thread plans and continue to discuss them!

Good night kids, and remember to avoid cross-voting! We don't want a tie!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

Nope.

Originally Posted by Lommy

not less than two hours before the deadline

Twenty minutes ago you talked about an hour? So over 1½ hours, right?

[Nogrod]

I do think the Boro - Lottie cahoots in the end of D1 is a bit of a stretch, but one of them being either the EW or a Wolf is not that far off.

Boro has acted weirdly either just having fun, wishing to play in the Dead thread, sporting as the EW / Wolf or plain counting that being too reckless would in the end stop us from actually lynching him (that there would be enough people not to vote him in the end).

Lottie and Inzil have both been on top of things early D1 on which could be just dedication to the game and taking it seriously (just wishing to know the rules well and giving them and different scenarios a lot of thought beforehand).

Lottie I could see advocating a no-lynch as a baddie just to be on a safe side herself while making show-off -moves near the DL to underline her daring (aka. not having a baddie-role). Zil goes to and fro a bit like Legate but feels a bit less genuine.

Eönwe flip-flops like Lommy of the old times first advocating lynch: "no lynch is a free ride for the wolves" and then making a "Legate 180" and suggesting a no-lynch plan. But then being around ten minutes before the DL he doesn't do anything to affect the vote - so drawing himself away from the issue and not like trying to push for the no-lynch - like he was happy about it?

Okay. Those are probably my top suspects at the moment.

[Thinlómien]

Okay okay.

Boro and Nerwen, thanks for the clarifications. I actually think Zil looks better not worse because of this. But I also think Nerwen looks a bit more innocent. It starts to look like an innocent-on-innocent spat to me. Argghh.


edit: xed with Boro and Nerwen

[Nogrod]

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

Maybe for you sir, who are going to go to sleep at 3 AM as usual I would like to vote soon.

(x-ed with everyone since the quoted post)

[Nerwen]

Hang on, where's this "Eonwe is different toDay = wolf" thing come from? *Is* he different?

[Mithalwen]

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

I think that's what we're all worried about.

Edit: x'd since Mithalwen..

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

Well I think the only way is if there are more wolves in the Dead thread than innocents. The only time I recall the "using the empower vote for dead to send info" really blowing up is when the Living had a set plan and then randomly somehow before the DL changed those plans which left the Dead confused on what to do.

I am intrigued though by Nog's different use of the empower vote as a way for the Dead to put in their collective "advisor" role for the living.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

To be honest, I'm not actually as dead-set on it as might appear from my posting. It's just that I seem to be the only one who is actually suggesting some kind of system. I'd hoped that by trying to fully detail it yesterDay, people might actually discuss it and work out what they think about it etc., but other than some vague agreement with the idea and Nogrod's very strong insistence that it's a bad idea, not many seem to have directly engaged with it. Oh well...

In any case, I just like the idea of having some kind of accepted system to fall back on. Obviously things might change over the course of the game, but I imagine Days will be (or at least on the surface appear to be until we actually know roles) relatively uneventful, and it will be good to have something to fall back on at least. And especially in these early Days when we know so little, it would be good to get some kind of steady stream of information (even if limited).


edit: x-ed since Pervinca. Also, that was meant to be 'some Days' (obviously some will be exciting!)

[Eönwë]

People who I'm relatively happy with
Eomer - Hasn't really posted that much, but seems reasonable and talks sense when he does talk.
Lalaith - Same as Eomer
Nogrod - I mean, I still disagree with him (though he does raise some good points), but I don't think he's said anything that makes me particularly suspicious.
Nerwen - For now, nothing seems too bad. I'm not completely sure how I feel about Zil, but I don't find her suspicion suspicious.

Not quite in the clear
Legate
Lommy

Red Flags
Lottie - I really just can't shake the feeling that she's up to something. Also, I obviously can't tell whether I seem different toDay from yesterDay, but I did feel like she kind of threw that out there with not much evidence (which apparently convinced Lommy).
Zil - I do think he overreacted a bit to Nerwen's accusation.
Boro - All the weirdness.

Not sure how I feel
Mithalwen - I'd like to hear more of her thoughts on people.

Need to post more
Sally
Pervinca
Brinn
Shasta


I don't think I have time to go into more detail, but I'd like to look more at Legate and Lommy tomorrow if I'm still alive (well I suppose actually also if I'm dead, but that'll be on the other thread).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Maybe for you sir, who are going to go to sleep at 3 AM as usual I would like to vote soon.

I was thinking about voting soonish as well and to go to bed...

Originally Posted by Pervinca

Can someone tell me the voting deadline in Greenwich Mean Time?

Exactly 1 hour and 7 minutes from the time stamp of this post.

[Nogrod]

One thing that still bothers me is Kuru's answer to my question - or the non-answer to it. Or to be more precise, whether it is something one should pay heed to or just shrug and walk away from.

So the question was, whether the EW could play so as to NOT turn someone on the Night1 before the game started, so that we'd play D1 without a single Wolf around, and then turn someone into a Wolf the next Night(2) and also using that Wolf the very same Night to Nightkill someone (aka. Morsul)?

Here's once more his answer (starting with an answer to another question), bolding mine.

Originally Posted by KuruLord

While "everything" is assumed to have happened during a NIGHT phase, this does also implicitly create an order in which things occur. For example, Ranger Pick effectively has to come first in order for the skill to be used at all, then Evil actions, and so on and so forth.

And I'm afraid that is as much of an answer as I can give to Nog's question too.

The answer to that question is baked into the geography of the game.

I know it may be frustrating and seem like I don't understand the question, but I could not possibly answer that particular question. It is part of the game. The most definitive statement I can make is that the game is still going on right now. The Party has not won. Everyone can make of that what they will.

~*~

Originally Posted by Pervinca

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

It would be appreciated.

[Nogrod]

EDIT: Sorry, didn't make any intro here on what this is all about... Sorry. So this is on Kuru's (non)answer just a few more lines...



The "the Party has not won" made me think first that there was some major positive thing for the village going on - but then after some thought realized that there aren't that many plausible chances for that to be true.

But what looks like it is said there is, that it might have been possible that we had no Wolf on D1 - which would kind of negate all my work on the voting on D1.

Emphasizing the order in which things take place to make events happen looks quite like he is saying that like conjuring up a wolf happens first and then there is the act that the creatures do.

Or it could be read the other way - if these summonings come the last.

Or is he just toying with us and laughing to his dwarven beard whilst seeing us speculating over sich issues?

[Lalaith]

It's annoying, I know that my five main suspects can't possibly all be guilty, but I'm now too tired to go through all the permutations and patterns of who fits in with whom.

Nerwen/Eomer felt like a good fit to me earlier toDay - although that could just be because they were both around and chatting, Boro/Lottie has been mentioned by others and kind of makes sense - and Zil - well, I don't know. I would go with Nerwen again for the sake of consistency but she feels less guilty to me now - I quite like her defence of Eonwe, just now. I think I might go with Eomer instead.
I do suspect Boro quite strongly but I'm not going to vote for him because I suspect him of playing a bit of a scam which I will explain tomorrow if it's still relevant.

[Nerwen]

Just reading through previous Days and thought I'd comment on this-

Originally Posted by Nogrod

One thing that still bothers me is Kuru's answer to my question - or the non-answer to it. Or to be more precise, whether it is something one should pay heed to or just shrug and walk away from.

So the question was, whether the EW could play so as to NOT turn someone on the Night1 before the game started, so that we'd play D1 without a single Wolf around, and then turn someone into a Wolf the next Night(2) and also using that Wolf the very same Night to Nightkill someone (aka. Morsul)?

Here's once more his answer (starting with an answer to another question), bolding mine.

The enigmatic nature of this is troubling. However-

This would not be possible. The Evil Wizard couldn't create and then kill that wolf in the same NIGHT. If the Evil Wizard tried something like this the victim would go to the Dead Thread as an Ordo.

That wouldn't preclude killing that wolf on a subsequent NIGHT, but it wouldn't work to do it on the same NIGHT.

This, although Kuru misinterpreted what you were asking, seems to make it pretty clear that the new wolf doesn't assume the role until the Night is over. Which makes sense, given that-

Originally Posted by The Rules

The Ranger can protect players from being killed or turned during the NIGHT phase.

and

If the Good Wizard and Evil Wizard target the same person, nothing happens.

You see there is more than one way a conversion can fail, depending on what else happens during the Night, so I don't think it would make sense for the EW to be able to say, "Aha, I have just created my first minion- let the slaughter commence! Mwa-ha-ha!" The exception, perhaps, might be in the case that the EW took a complete shot in the dark and requested that Morsul be killed IF [Prospective Wolf #1] were to be turned successfully. Maybe the rules allow that and that's why Kuru wouldn't confirm that it 100% couldn't happen. But it seems far-fetched.
Edit:x'd with 2 Brinns.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, here we go:

Nerwen - aside from the incident with Zil, there wasn't anything that would make me suspect her in any way. Therefore I am probably not going to vote her toDay.
Inziladun - okay, now upon re-reading, his reaction to Nerwen escalated in such a rapid way that it really makes my alarm bells ring. However, all his posting earlier was pretty normal, so I would prefer not to vote him solely on the basis of that one instance.
Loslote - now she has been bringing a lot of stuff to the front, and like I said, seems generally much more vocal than I am used to her being. I am really not into believing that she and Boro would have been two baddies from the start, although we have seen bolder packs. Objectively however, even though she's being vocal and bringing people up as possible suspects and all that, her behavior did not strike me as sinister by itself. I think there isn't enough to make me vote her now, either.
Boromir88 - okay, let's be frank. If there's anyone behaving outright suspiciously, it's him; and that is exactly the problem, because why. His responses regarding yesterDay were satisfactory to me by themselves, but that does not change his behavior as it is. He is probably the one I might consider the most worthy of my vote, just because I have no idea what to do with him and I don't want to give him a pass "because he's so strange that he possibly can't be guilty".
Shastanis Althreduin - is not around? I mean, appeared, but there have been no posts from him now, so... obviously leaving him be for now, although I certainly hope we won't have too many submarines here.
satansaloser2005 - hasn't yet posted enough for me to form an opinion, therefore probably not voting her now.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - he has been poking around. YesterDay, I got generally positive vibe from him, today, he was maybe throwing some suspicion, but also said things I can again agree with and which seem reasonable (like his attitude towards Boro). Not voting him, in any case.
Thinlómien - she has been very active now, and I can agree with many points she brings up. Most of all, I am not getting any feeling of false tones from her posts, which at the moment is probably the main thing I am operating on in regards to her. Therefore no reason to vote her toDay.
Lalaith - is really hard to read for me, I think I need to see more from her. So far, nothing that would make me vote for her, however.
Mithalwen - so far I am not getting any bad vibes from her. She participates in the discussion, I did not see anything that would look especially wolf-y. In any case nothing that would make me think she deserves a vote.
Eönwë - whereas I acknowledge the theory that he would have been a convenient Wolf pick last Night, I also acknowledge that it would have been perhaps too obvious (then again, nobody really thought about it until now), and upon re-read, I don't think his behavior is really different in some significant manner. I am probably not voting him toDay.
Nogrod - good to see him around, though most of his posting was about the Dead thread. I am certainly not voting him toDay, hopefully toMorrow there will also be more things to read from him.
Pervinca Took - probably absent?
Brinniel - also hasn't been around that much, although has posted earlier. Not enough to go with, however.

But that's about it. Will check who I x-posted with (probably a lot) and then finally vote and go to sleep.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hang on, where's this "Eonwe is different toDay = wolf" thing come from? *Is* he different?

Well exactly, upon re-read I think he is not in any significant way.

Originally Posted by Pervinca Took

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

It would be better because then there is something where we can see why you voted the way you did. Anyway, welcome!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I wanted to have voted like twenty minutes ago, but I'm really not going to stick around until DL.

I will vote

++Boro

It would really anger me if I ignored him just because he was so standing out and then it turned out he was a baddie anyway.

Good Night, people.

EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith

[Eönwë]

I'm actually quite tempted to vote Boro, because if he's actually evil then, well, at least we've killed a wolf, and if not, and he has plans for the Dead Thread etc., then he'd probably be an asset to have there.

Zil and Lottie scare me a bit more though at the moment, but maybe that's just because I always worry that they're plotting something evil.

[Nerwen]

Well, Steve, here's your plan from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Just to clarify how the empowering thing would work (since there's been some discussion):

1. Let's assume we start with today's living as the options. First of all, we alphabetise the list (toDay is an even Day so it's in Z->A order). That gives us:

Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil. This gives us:

If the person is PREY:
Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote

If the person is a PREDATOR:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88


3. Then, based on whether the Target (i.e. the person whose role was found out the Night before) is innocent or guilty, someone who is a known innocent (i.e. someone genuinely found out to be an innocent, or if no such person appears, a Night kill, e.g. Morsul - I assume the Dead Thread can come up with a system, but my suggestion would be to cycle through those lynched and definitively proven to be innocent) picks which of the people in the appropriate PREDATOR or PREY list is voted.

Of course, if we want to be particularly careful about the list (and possibly EW attempts at manipulation), we could, for example, after Day 4 (since this will only start on Day 3), decide to use a different ordering, e.g. Kuru's narration order (forwards one day, backwards the next), and so on.

edit: x-ed since my last.

As I said, I think we should stipulate that the Dead should check lynchees only (except in the case of a Hunter kill). The idea being floated about yesterDay that the wolves might kill one of their own just to have a wolf in the Dead Thread... well, it could happen as a sort of extreme outlier, but I feel that planning around such a possibility means that half the information we get from the Dead will be effectively useless. What do other people think?

[satansaloser2005]

Quoting is being problematic from my phone, but I agree with your above post, Nerwen. The idea of the villain(s) doing that is hard to swallow. Even Phantom wouldn't consider such a gambit.

Hang on. Phantom's not secretly playing, is he?!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Quoting is being problematic from my phone, but I agree with your above post, Nerwen. The idea of the villain(s) doing that is hard to swallow. Even Phantom wouldn't consider such a gambit.

Hang on. Phantom's not secretly playing, is he?!

Actually you are talking to someone who literally did try such a gambit once, in another game with special rules- but we were in desperate straits, and the sacrificial wolf was pretty much on the block anyway. I don't see that applying here, at least not yet.

[satansaloser2005]

Precisely.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Y'all, I am very sorry for missing yesterday. I've been horrendously sick.

Will catch up and post stuff soon, promise.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Y'all, I am very sorry for missing yesterday. I've been horrendously sick.

Will catch up and post stuff soon, promise.

My jewel!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said, I think we should stipulate that the Dead should check lynchees only (except in the case of a Hunter kill). The idea being floated about yesterDay that the wolves might kill one of their own just to have a wolf in the Dead Thread... well, it could happen as a sort of extreme outlier, but I feel that planning around such a possibility means that half the information we get from the Dead will be effectively useless. What do other people think?

Hey could you tell me where you mentioned this before? I know I was pushing for it quite heavily, but I don't remember getting any support on the issue:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Also, just to clarify the other part, the idea was that the Target would be the non-Night-killed-person in the Dead Thread who has been there the longest and has not had their role revealed should be picked.

I say non-Night-killed because while it's an interesting idea, it seems pretty crazy to imagine the EW Night-killing one of their own, and even if they did, it seems even more unlikely that it could happen more than once (once they're down to non-replenishable wolves), and one wouldn't screw up the system enough to make much a difference.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yes, but for my second post what I was getting at was that for toNight, both people should vote for toDay's lynchee (so we don't have a wasted Night on that thread).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Hey could you tell me where you mentioned this before? I know I was pushing for it quite heavily, but I don't remember getting any support on the issue:

Well, I said it in the previous post... but
I actually thought I'd mentioned yesterDay too, only I can't find any such post.