Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna, Day 1

1st post - most of her thoughts have been stated by others, willing to over look Glirdan's first post if he can come up with some substance later, leaves

2nd post - doesn't understand Manwe's logic, thinks he just randomly grouped three other people with Nogrod, not much explanation for it

3rd post - suggest Manwe alleviates mistrust with some explanation, corrects him about her thoughts on Glirdan

4th post - Has only had the chance to skim, and Rikae's vote is the only thing of interest

(What happened with Manwe? Did she just drop it? Why?)

5th vote - Can see Rikae's logic for voting Manwe, but is concerned about the timing, hopes Rikae will come back, accepts Manwe's response to her questions, feels better about him, says Glirdan seemed normal, but Nogrod jumped on it as alienated from the village, points out that no one mentioned Gil-galad's post, not sure she'd label Manwe as harsh, finds Garin's vote for Nogrod and then switch to Rikae very odd, has to leave for class, Votes Garin, says his vote for Nogrod was just odd.

(This post bothers me. She says she can understand why Rikae voted for Manwe, but she seems content to exonerate him all together. A case of "a row just blowing over," as someone else said. Also, she too accused Nogrod of "jumping on" Glirdan. I'm starting to suspect a triad between SPM, Manwe, and Kitanna. The question is, who's the fourth?)

Next Rune, and then Durelin, and then I'll be leaving for the night (RL), I think.

[Roa_Aoife]

Side note: w00t! Fifth page!

[Mänwe]

Durelin I did not specifically say nor was I secretly alluding to analysis being 'wolfish' my intention was only to draw a parallel with what others have said on the 'helpful' issue. That being, the Faithful's may want to appear useful as though they are on the ordo's side. That was my intended meaning. I can see as plain as anyone that analysis is useful.

And on my point on banter, well I admit, my motive was partly one of making a point that it should be part of the game. But, have we not seen Legate's 'mood' toward it. Perhaps he is unable to decipher the banter from the real, he is edgy, and finds it hard to interpret...perhaps making his work as a Faithful harder?

Oh and Roa, I think you missed a part of her post where she then states that she understands my logic for those I chose, whether that helps or not I don't know, just thought i'd add it.

Edited with Roa's post.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rune, Day 1

1st post - Says everything thus far Day 1 nonsense that he cannot be bothered to mention, finds Manwe's case odd, says Manwe is focusing on just Nogrod, which is odd, but understands the question Manwe asks, but doesn't understand why there's so little elaboration on the others, says Jobs were accelerators for making people talk

(I dislike his statement that everything before his post was pretty much useless banter. That was hardly the case. Already, a few theories, suspicions, and questions were being discussed. Why would he want to dimiss those? So that he wouldn't have to comment on them? Also, I still don't know what question Manwe was asking Nogrod that was so important.)

2nd post - is confused by a lot of people, says there's alot of jumpiness, and while he would normally analyze this, he's never played with the people who are the jumpiest, is concerned about Holby's post, thinks Hookbill is innocent

(Way to contribute to the "nonsense." Not much here, except a big "I don't know." Again, what happened to Manwe? Have we found a fourth?)

3rd post - Seconds TGWBS, says Garin's post is a contradiction, thinks he might vote Garin for his post

(latching onto the first suspect who presents himself, but Garin was actung very strangely)

4th post - doesn't like risk level dictating who one votes for

5th post - Says his thoughts are now directed at 5 people: Garin, Manwe, Briniel, Legate, and Holby

(Well, that came out of nowhere. I really wish he'd offer more explanation than one line each. It seems like he's forcing this list to seem less single minded.)

6th post - Is unsure he'll be back in time, wants to vote Legate, doesn't want to spread the vote, Votes Garin

(Again, the suspicion of Legate has very little explanation beyond a feeling, and it seems more like he's forcing it so we don't assume he's really part of this band wagon. Something is off here.)

I was going to do Durelin, but then I remembered that I already got her with the Manwe voters. Anyways, how many people have I analyzed now? And how many does that leave? Rikae, I'd wish you'd tell us who those innocents are (I assume that if you'd found a wolf you'd have told us right away) because it'd make this go faster.

Also, I was curious- does the rule about those who are absent applicable to voting or merely to presence? I ask because Glirdan as yet has only one post and no vote, and I wanted to know if he remains absent for the day whether he will be killed or not.

Honestly, Glirdan, if you don't have more posts than the dead at the end of toDay, I may consider voting for you on Day 3. It's a nuisance to have to wonder about you when we could be focusing on something substantial.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Manwe

Oh and Roa, I think you missed a part of her post where she then states that she understands my logic for those I chose, whether that helps or not I don't know, just thought i'd add it.

Who? Durelin or Legate? And which post? I'd like to correct that, though I still think someone else ought to analyze Legate as well.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, I've just realized that with my analysis toDay and yesterDay, and excluding myself and Rikae, I've only got four people left to analyze! And as they're all quiet people, this shouldn't take long at all.

(See, Nogrod, this is why analyzing during the Night phase when you've nothing better to do is worthwhile. Sure you could die in the night, but if you don't, way more work gets done.)

EDIT: I forgot, those people are:

Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Kath
Mithalwen

So, I'll skip Glirdan- I believe everything that can be said about his ONE post has been said already. Gil-galad, coming up. (This shouldn't take long.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Gil-galad

1st post - Decides to take things slow, will review and be back later, decides to look at Manwe and Nogrod because they are under the most speculation

(Really playing it safe here- he says he's going after the two most suspicious people at the time, but never comes back with any conclusions.)

2nd post - Says that he also has a tendency not to say much, doesn't think Manwe is a wolf, lists his hunches: SPM, Hookbill, TGWBS, and Rikae

He does not return to vote on Day 1

3rd post - Agrees with Manwe, puts Legate at the bottom of his list, is worried that he won't return, Votes SPM, apologizes

While I, too, think SPM is guilty, I'd like to see more reasoning from Gil. Also, I don't like his apologizing. (I never like it, really. Either you think someone is guilty, or you don't. If you do, have some conviction in your vote. If you don't, then don't vote for them.) However, as he's cited parental trouble in the Admin thread, I'm going to let him slide for now.

Parents can be such a bother, wouldn't you say, Thin?

Kath next!

[Roa_Aoife]

Kath, Day 1

1st post - feels weird with out an occupation, states the ratios and odds, thinks we have good odds, feels lost

(All she does is state the obvious, However, she is admittedly one of the very first posters, and it looks more like she honestly doesn't know what to discuss rather than trying to appear present with out actually doing anything.)

2nd post - Banter with TGWBS, doesn't think Manwe is suspicious, but just new, wonders if he might be another Valier, thinks Legate is trying to set hemself up as "The Calm One," thinks Hookbill is normal, comment about Durelin and lack of roles, has to leave

No vote, but she explains that on the admin thread. I always have a hard time reading Kath, but she's being especially non-controversial right now. She's making a presence, and she looks like she saying something of substance, but in reality, nothing she says is a new thought. With only two posts, she's barely above Glirdan. I'm definitely keeping a close eye on her from now on.

Mith next, and then I'm done for the night. (Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.)

[Mänwe]

Mhm, but surely then if she was truly not trying to appear 'present' wouldn't you just not post? Stating the obvious as her first post and as one of the first posters to use a popular phrase, 'screams' of wanting to appear present. Do you not think? If she was really straped for something to say, you'd just not say anything.

I mean most people here are bashing on about 'substance'.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So I started this post with the intention of saying that Roa's skills in analyzing was not as great as I thought, but as I started to think about what she said I found that she was more correct than I first thought.

Some of my theories my seemed forced and that is because they are. . .I have to force my self to find things I find suspicouse otherwise I would seldom get more than 1 suspect at the time. So yeah many of my suspicions is not based on me seing something and saying "that is wolfish" but more a case of me thinking "that is slightly odd" and then start to make a shaky case out of it.

I have never claimed have any analytical skills, if I do then they do not show because I seldome have pations to make analysis like Roa's.

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

I still feel the same about Mänwe, I think he acts weird and I do suspect him, but for some reason at the same time I have seriouse doubts that he is a wolf. . . It is hard to explain, but it was kind of the same feeling I had about Garin and that was why I mentioned that I would rather lynch Legate.

I suppose it might be that the people that really strikes you as acting in a really weird/wolfish way is very seldome wolves, in fact I can't remember when I last spottet a wolf like this. Whenever I have had the luck to spot a wolf it has been on small things, like a slight twist of words.

Warning: If people start talking about me being over defencive I will beat them with a stick!

When a post is made about me, I feel that I should respond in order to clarify or confuse further.

[Mänwe]

Or kill them during the night? Sorry I couldn't resist.

[Mänwe]

Roa, as to where Kitanna stated she understood me;

I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

Post #96.

[Roa_Aoife]

Mith, Day 1

1st post - Not alot to say, thinks the game will be interesting, cautions everyone about gifteds and their odd vibes, reminds everyone of the cobbler

(While I disagree with Mith about being cautious of gifteds, I find little to suspect in her first post. She managed to stir up quite a bit with it, despite being the first post of the game.)

2nd post - Says she hasn't been near a computer since her first post, is going to read what she's missed

3rd post - points out that Roa likes talk so she can examine it and doesn't find it odd, decides to look at the people who have made a big deal about her joking statement while ignoring her serious one, says she just wanted to remind the village of possible dynamics and to consider all the angles before going after someone suspicious, says her statement about sharing details was rhetorical

(Again, while I disagree with her about her view on the gifted, she seems very reasonable at this point.)

4th post - Remembers that Garin has a tendency to look suspicious

(What happened to looking at the people who misunderstood your statement?)

5th post - Disagrees with Roa about gifted

(Well, that was expected, though she still hasn't looked at the people who ignored her serious statement, and in seems more in favor of looking at the one person who didn't.)

6th post - feels uneasy about Lal's single post, thinks Manwe is just new, wants to see why everyone finds Rikae suspicious, says a vote for SPM would be traditional, but is puzzled by the squabling between him and Roa, though the two are the most likely to argue "the toss" (?), says the village is much quieter than expected

(Ah, here they are. I wish she'd put a little more into it though. There's just a brief summary on each. I'm not sure what to make of that.)

7th post - Doesn't know who to vote for, wants to save Rikae but isn't convinced of either Manwe or Garin's guilt

(While I can understand the frustration, it's better to lynch an innocent and save the seer than to quibble about it and let the minutes slide away. It worries me. Does she know both are innocent and doesn't want to be tied to an innocent bandwagon?)

8th post - Says Rikae was a very bold wolf last game, but she will be found out quickly if she is lying

(I'm not sure what the point of this was. Everyone realizes this, I think, and I don't believe that anyone had called Rikae into question yet, though I could be wrong.)

9th - Says Lal would be her choice since she can't decide about Roa and SPM, says Lal doesn't feel right, and she may be playing with an evil Lal for the first time.

10th - agrees that Rikae shouldn't reveal anything until Day 2

11th - Votes Lal, since Rikae is safe

(Well, at least she stuck to her guns, small as they may have been. I can respect sticking with your own conclusions instead of going with a bandwagon, but it still seems like she went with a safe vote instead of risking a vote for Garin or Manwe to save our seer. I don't trust her hesitation, here.)

Okay, having analyzed everyone in the village except the dead, the known innocent, and myself, I feel I've made my fair share of contributions to the village for now. I'm going to bed, but I should be back well before the end of the Day. (I may check back in a little bit, if I can't sleep, but no promises.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Manwe

Mhm, but surely then if she was truly not trying to appear 'present' wouldn't you just not post? Stating the obvious as her first post and as one of the first posters to use a popular phrase, 'screams' of wanting to appear present. Do you not think? If she was really straped for something to say, you'd just not say anything.

I assume you mean Kath? I think you misunderstood. I said that she looked like she was trying to appear present, not the opposite. And that was for her second post, not her first. In her first post, yes, she put some effort in to being helpful, or at least appearing that way. So we're in agreement on that point, I guess.

Rune, I think I'm willing to buy it, but I didn't analyze you because I think you're particularly suspicious, but rather because it's a help to the village and gives everyone something to think about and discuss. (See, it's working!)

Originally Posted by Manwe

Roa, as to where Kitanna stated she understood me;
Quote:
I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

Post #96.

Oh, right, that's where I said:

Originally Posted by Me

...accepts Manwe's response to her questions, feels better about him,...
...she seems content to exonerate him all together....

I didn't leave it out; I just shortened and paraphrased it. I try not to go word for word in a summary. That would negate the purpose of a summary.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Oh I know why you analyzed me, but I still felt like I should answer.

[Mänwe]

Roa thank you ever so for your definition of 'summary'.

And,

You said,

(All she does is state the obvious, However, she is admittedly one of the very first posters, and it looks more like she honestly doesn't know what to discuss rather than trying to appear present with out actually doing anything.)

[my bold]

That was your comment for her 1st post, right?

If so, I was suggesting that in fact she WAS trying to appear present in her 1st post as well as her 2nd. Which is different from what you say, you think in her 1st post (if indeed this was your comment for her 1st post, which I assumed was because the comment was beneath your summary of her 1st post) she was just honestly not knowing but in her 2nd she was trying to appear present.

[Roa_Aoife]

Can't sleep, so I thought I'd check up again. (Wretched werewolf addiction! I thought I'd quit, but noooo. First, Fea and then Nogrod have to drage me back in, and now I've relapsed. I'm going to have to go back to WW Rehab again....)

Ahem, anyways....

Manwe, I seriously think lines are getting crossed here, and I'm starting to think it's deliberate.

I said:

Originally Posted by me

(All she does is state the obvious, However, she is admittedly one of the very first posters, and it looks more like she honestly doesn't know what to discuss rather than trying to appear present with out actually doing anything.)

then

No vote, but she explains that on the admin thread. I always have a hard time reading Kath, but she's being especially non-controversial right now. She's making a presence, and she looks like she saying something of substance, but in reality, nothing she says is a new thought. With only two posts, she's barely above Glirdan. I'm definitely keeping a close eye on her from now on.

I'd like to point out that the parts in parenthesis are my imediate thoughts on each post. This is evident in my analysis on Mith, where for two posts I was wondering at the lack of her promised analysis, only to find it in the third. I used to do analysis differently. I would post the summary, and then I would post my analysis seperately. I found that most people would skip the summary and go right to the analysis, which was based on the summary. It just created a big hole. So I modified my style a bit, and instead I put my imediate thoughts on each post right after the summary, and finish the analysis at the end by tying it all up.

You said:

Originally Posted by Manwe

Mhm, but surely then if she was truly not trying to appear 'present' wouldn't you just not post? Stating the obvious as her first post and as one of the first posters to use a popular phrase, 'screams' of wanting to appear present. Do you not think? If she was really straped for something to say, you'd just not say anything.

To be honest, I'm still not sure if you were agreeing with me, or disagreeing with me, or just ignored the second part of my analysis. I didn't know which post you meant, and I only deduced it was Kath because this was posted shortly after my analysis of her. So I clarified with:

Originally Posted by me

I think you misunderstood. I said that she looked like she was trying to appear present, not the opposite. And that was for her second post, not her first. In her first post, yes, she put some effort in to being helpful, or at least appearing that way. So we're in agreement on that point, I guess.

Which you apparently still misunderstand, because you said:

Originally Posted by manwe

If so, I was suggesting that in fact she WAS trying to appear present in her 1st post as well as her 2nd. Which is different from what you say, you think in her 1st post (if indeed this was your comment for her 1st post, which I assumed was because the comment was beneath your summary of her 1st post) she was just honestly not knowing but in her 2nd she was trying to appear present.

You're right, in a way. My initial reaction to her first post was that she was simply strapped for things to talk about. With the look at her second post however, it seems a pattern of saying what's already been said. Hence the other 75% of my analysis, which you apparently missed.

Roa thank you ever so for your definition of 'summary'.

I always try to be helpful, especially to those who seem to need it.

[Thinlómien]

Yay for the ranger!

Nogrod's first assumption that the ranger and the wolves were after someone else than Rikae certainly caught my attention today, yet I don't know what to think of it. It seems a genuine innocent idea, but it could also be a clever wolvish ploy... I must think more of it before making a final judgement, but I just wanted to mention that/ point that out.

~*~

Uh, oh, Roa, quite a flood of posts. I hope you're not a faithful - no one's ever going to be able to nail you by analysing your posts!

Originally Posted by Roa

Parents can be such a bother, wouldn't you say, Thin?

Agreed. But in this family, werewolf-wise, it usually goes the other way around...

~*~

Okay, I have nothing intelligent to say right now, I don't know what to think, except I vaguely suspect Durelin and Brinniel and Kitanna right now, (and I'm keeping my eye on Noggie and Sauce as well). I think I'll reread the thread and see if I can come up with more concrete (old or new) suspicions or evidence.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Hookbill Day 1

1st post - says he left too early, thinks the death was poetic

(What does he mean he left too early? Was he here at the start of the Day and just didn't comment? Why would he do that?)

I meant I'd left it too late. Sorry, must have been a typo. I didn't comment after the first two comments because I had nothing to go on and said to myself 'I'll leave it a while' then left it too long and there were many posts I had to read which was annoying for I am lazy.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

(While he seems to suspect Manwe for his rather ambiguous statement to SPM, it seems as though Hookbill is really the one trying to point out the Seer, and the only one making a big deal about it at all is him. Honestly, if you read into that statement, you ought to keep your mouth shut.)

Yes I think I probably did read into it too much. As I said, I'm not too good at this game.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Between the banter and silliness, it was hard to find anything of substabce in Hookbill's posts. I don't know if he's ever played before, but he seems very lost. Or rather, he seems like he's trying to seem like he's very lost. It has a very played up feeling. Also, he apologizes for his vote, and that's always suspicious to me.

I've only played once before and it was a long while ago. In my last game I made terrible mistakes and generally had a bad game. Hence I've been hesitant to join any WW games because the first one went so badly.

Well, I can't say anything I've read here leads me to any theories. I'll come back when I have something to say. (As I said on the Admin thread, I'll do my best to post but I've got a busy day...)

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I spent a couple of minutes reading Nogrod's statements, and I'm more confused than I was a few minutes ago.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, post 132

Well the numbers surely are shrinking with a bit too fast pace but happily there seems to be some good news as well with the Ranger making a great save. And now our Ranger too has a known innocent in her/his pocket and will probably live at least up to toMorrow. So with that save we kind of managed to get a borrowed Seer for one Night! Meaning: in Day3 we should have at least two living known innocents around and possibly the ranger might save it then again (50-50 chance of them being around on Day4 as well)... That would help our task considerably.

Kudos to her/him! And a bow.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, post 134

Sorry people... I was maybe getting a bit too optimistic back there...

It just occured to me that the wolves might have been so stupid as not to try and kill someone else safely the last Night but go straightforwards to Rikae (counting she's the Seer) and thence obviously be denied the kill in the first place.

Or is it a most Devillish plan where all this is staged to cover up for a false Seer? But it shouldn't work. It just couldn't. Too risky (even for Roa? ) so long as a right Seer still lives and killing her/him soon would be most reckless too - even with four faithfuls around.

So maybe we don't have two known innocents toMorrow. I was just too happy, too early...

It's just weird... I mean, he's a sensible and rational guy, we all know that... And as to a kill that has been denied when there's a known seer, wouldn't it be logical to think that the ranger played it safe protected the seer and the wolves risked trying to kill her? I mean, thinking from the wolves' point of view, there's still four of them, three ordos are dead, the seer's revealed... They have a situation in which they can risk checking if the ranger was protecting Rikae or not. And they decided to take this risk. That's how I see it. My question is why is Nogrod making this so complicated? I know he can think in a bit complicated way at times, but... Also, calling the wolves stupid sounds like something a wolf could do. I don't understand this... Is Nogrod a confused and far-fetched inocent, a cobbler or a bluffing wolf?

edit: xed with Hookbill

[Brinniel]

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

I believe it is Roa who said I am a thoughtful player, and indeed I am. I must think further on this before making any actual assumptions...

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

Indeed, this is an interesting thought. I haven't really formed any opinions over Legate yet, though I would like to see how he posts toDay.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

I actually agree with you. I mean, 90% of his posts is either banter, wailing about not being good in this game or defense of himself. Sounds suspicious, but would a wolf do this?
I agree that his comments about his confusion seem sincere, but there's the possibility he really is confused, and he uses it to his own advance (to get sympathy or seem harmless or to avoid making any real cases and thus tracks) by repeating and exaggerating it. That's something to consider.

[Thinlómien]

So, all votes and the reasons for them, from yesterday: (I'm doing known innocents too, just for the record)

1. Durelin for Mänwe
For a little extreme day1-chatting, "his bragging of his fisherman wisdom is getting to me" and she says she has nothing better to go on.

2. Rikae for Mänwe
"Because there is something slightly forced, or fabricated, about the actual content of his posts" , underlines that there was a "lack of any other leads at the moment".

3. Mänwe for Nogrod
No reasoning in the actual vote post. Has previously suspected him for numerous reasons - at least for "alluding to the absence of others", for picking Glirdan so early, for not answering Mänwe's and Rune's points/questions and because suspecting a wolvish co-operation of Noggie, Roa, SPM and Kitanna.

4. Thinlómien for Rikae
For a weird early vote and an unreasonable case, emphasises too that there's not very much to go on yet.

5. Garin for Nogrod
Because he didn't want to vote his other suspects (Mith and Rikae) and because Nogrod might prove a dangerous werefaithful.

6. Garin retracts from Nogrod and votes for Rikae
Is confused. Because voting Nogrod was in fact against his instinct and "because you shouldn't take votes lightly".

7. Brinniel for Rikae
Says she's going with her gut and because Rikae "only posted once, and within that post, made a hasty vote with little reason to back it up...".

8. TGWBS for Garin
Says he must either be a faithful or the cobbler, because of his weird vote and vote switch.

9. Roa_Aoife for SPM
Because of everything she had stated before and because she thinks it's suspicious for Sauce to consider Nogrod's behaviour unusual since in her opinion he's just normal. The previous states suspicions are Sauce trying to make Nog look more aggressive than he actually is, Sauce being eager to form a bond with Mänwe, Sauce comparing his own reasonableness with Nogrod's unreasonableness, Sauce's "too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else", Sauce has Rikae as a "back-lynchee" and Roa doesn't like Sauce's cases against Noggie overall.

10. Kitanna for Garin
"His vote for Nogrod seemed odd. He had a case going against Rikae, but decided not to vote for her because it could be viewed as a safe vote. -- I'm confused by his actions and am somewhat alarmed by them."

11. Rune for Garin
Does not want to spread the vote (would have preferred voting Legate), and says that Garin's more suspicious than Mänwe. Previously has said that his voting post (the vote for Nogrod) is contradictory and that he's odd.

12. SPM for Rikae
"Rikae's seeming enthusiasm for promoting the (then) gathering Manwe bandwaggon looks the more suspicious to me." Also finds her explanation about time problems unconvincing and her vote placement suspicious.

13. Hookbill for Mänwe
Because he has no better suspect and Mänwe acts oddly, admits that this might be retaliatory suspicion.

14. Holbytlass for Garin
There was nothing else than the vote in her post (and as she's a known dead innocent I'm too lazy to reskim through the thread to find out if she suspected him before or not, and if yes, why).

15. Lalaith for Holbytlass
Because she thinks Holby's a cobbler sending signals to the werefaithfuls.

16. Durelin retrcats from Rikae and votes for Mänwe
Obviously because of Rikae's revelation. Has had somewhat vague suspicions about him before.

17. Roa retracts from SPM and changes to Garin
Again, because of the seer-thing. Garin was her other main suspect (alongside with SPM), mainly because of his "weird display before he left" meaning the vote-switch, I assume.

18. Legate for Mänwe
States no reasons in his vote post, has previously suspected him for accusing out of nothing and being harsh/ruthless and mixing Roa with Nogrod.

19. Mithalwen for Lalaith
"Because Rikae seems safe." Has expressed suspicion of Lalaith's first post and has sais that unlike usually, Lalaith does not seem fine to her.

20. Nogrod for Mänwe
Thinks he might be the cobbler. Voting to assure Rikae's safe (or so I assume).

21. Lalaith retracts from Holby and votes Mänwe
To assure that Rikae's safe. Is not very inclined to suspect Mänwe in general.

~*~

Well, that took almost an hour and I'm not sure if I'm any wiser. Not my method, it seems.

Lalaith's second vote has been criticised, and I don't see why. It seems everybody was a bit confused about the vote counts late yesterday and every good servant of Annatar would try to assure that the high priest's safe.

I don't know precisely why, but Brinn's vote makes me slightly uneasy. It's somehow too clean and fitting... and bandwagonish... but I don't know. I'm trying to puzzle if I would have still voted Rikae at that phase of the day, or would I have had some better suspect... I don't know... But if it's a possibility that I'd still had voted Rikae, should I exonerate Brinn's vote?

I understand Rune did not want to spread the vote, but... Why didn't he build a solid case against Legate and try to convert others to his side rather than give up his only serious suspicion not to spread the vote?

~*~

I'll be back in a few hours, then I can be around for about an hour (or a bit less) and then I have to vote and go.

[Rikae]

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.
I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

Of course, lynching Roa will prove I'm the "high priestess"; but tonight will prove that at any rate.

You might want to take a look at anyone else who has suspected Nogrod, or at the very least, you can write him off the suspect list - he's innocent.
I'm sorry I haven't been more help - I should be able to join the discussion this afternoon (EST), but if not, good luck!

[Thinlómien]

Okay, thanks for exonerating Nogrod, now I don't need to be puzzled about those statements!

And OMG (if I'm allowed to use that term ), believe me or not, I almost posted half-jokingly toDay that Roa might be the cobbler !!! since she's flood-posting in such amounts and that countless analysises (analysi?) is a very good way of confusing people... But then I concluded that flooding analysis is Roa's normal behaviour and decided to forget about the idea of Tar-Roael and leave the joke be...
What can we conclude from this? Answer: always trust your sense of humour.

Now (before you all get annoyed with me ) I'll start working on something more contributive/constructive...

[the guy who be short]

Thank you Rikae for that information (although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent?). I was just about to say that you should reveal your dreams before you die toNight (inevitable, as you were protected yesterNight).

Now then, it is vexing that Roa is Tar-Miriel, and hopefully we'll be able to analyse her posts and glean some information.

However, much more to the point, we have two known innocents: Nogrod and Rikae. This is very important because, while their views are subjective, they are innocent. Anybody else could be a wolf, and so their views and analyses can never quite be trusted - look at Roa for example. I was just thinking how helpful all this analysis is, and it turns out she's been trying to deceive us all this time.

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

We should take this opportunity while we can. Rikae will die tonight, and Nogrod will probably die soon after.

I will now name a few of my own suspicions before going over posts by Nogrod, Rikae, and Roa.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents. I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent. I think you can safely say that we should trust and heed Rikae and Nogrod more than other fellow villagers, but we certainly should not stop believing in our own reasoning or stop thinking ourselves or limit our list of suspects because Rikae and Noggie don't suspect some people.

This might be only because I disagree with TGWBS on this matter, but suggesting that seems a wolvish thing to do... I mean, what's a better tactic for a wolf than idolising known innocents? Pretty much everyone agrees that their advice should be heeded, and by suggesting things like this you generally get more trust and people might consider you more innocent... I can't express this properly, but I think this is suspicious.
Besides, if TGWBS was a wolf, whose companions were not much suspected, this could be a very good tactic for him, taking the attention and the lynch-mob further from his fellows.
But I guess I won't pursue that interpretation further, because I have no more basis for claiming that than claiming that I look like a wolf whose fellows are suspected by Rikae and Nogrod and I'm trying to save them by attacking TGWBS's theory...

~*~

And I guess we shouldn't heed anything Roa says anymore. From now on, she will try to confuse us even more. Even though she does not know the identities of the wolves, I'm sure she can manage to mess up our minds and thoughts and even that itself is an advantage to the wolves.

[Rikae]

Well, before I go, if you're going to be using my ideas as a starting point I suppose I should let you know what I've been thinking today...
I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe - slightly nervous, jumpy and unsubstantive, trying to appear helpful... I don't have time to go into a detailed analysis right now (religious rites, ie, school), but I'll try to supply one before I ... get off the train at Baltimore. (Kick the bucket, buy the farm, you get the picture.)
I just thought throwing that out there might give you somewhere to start...although this is just a hunch on my part, and certainly fallible.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

A rather funny cross-post.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I must go now.

++TGWBS

Because of that latest. Also, if you look through his earlier posts, he's very careful, unlike usually (as an ordo). This strikes me as wolvish carefulness. Also, he posts voting data etc little nice things that makes me think he also might try to seem helpful... I dunno. And add gut feeling to that pile. The more I read his posts, the less he sits right with me.
If I and he are both still alive today, I'll certainly analyse him more thoroughly.

As to other people that bug me... Durelin. She comments everything and jokes about everything, her posts are mostly agreeing with others and her votes are weird and very safe... I don't like her in this game.

Kitanna is also slightly worrying. This is mostly a gut-feeling thing, though. But her vote placement and constant agreeing-humming make me wary of her as well.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Thinlo

So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents... the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent.

I certainly don't think we should stop thinking! I intend to analyse a few people I myself suspect - Lalaith and Brinniel - whom neither Nogrod nor Rikae suspect (I think). But the thing to bear in mind is that any analysis could be Faithful EXCEPT the analysis of the known innocents. You may call it idolizing to use this, but I call it common sense. If everybody were forced to vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, all of us - wolves included - would have to vote based on what is definitely innocent knowledge.

The problem with this is that the Faithful can manipulate the shortlist if one member is Faithful and the rest are not, but I think this makes them easier to catch afterwards.

The size of the shortlist must also be considered. We are 18, of whom 2 are known innocents, one is a known Tar-Miriel, and four are wolves.

This means 4/15 of the people who could be on a shortlist are wolves. About a quarter, so we'd have to have four people on the list for a reasonable chance of getting at least 1 wolf on it. I wonder if that would work? Could the wolves manipulate such a list with ease or not?

[the guy who be short]

Well, I've thought about it a bit, and I don't think a shortlist would work. The wolves would have four votes out of 15, which would be enough to influence others or save a compatriot.

Now something that confuses me about Day 1 is the Nogrod-Roa-SpM triangle. I commented on Nogrod and SpM sparring - a result, I believe, of their both being loud, rather than Faithful. Neither of their cases seems to be based on logic, - SpM accused Nogrod for encouraging people to talk, and Nogrod attacks SpM for making a lot of his statement encouraging people to talk. I feel, as earlier, that they are both innocent.

What interests me in all this is Tar-Miroa. Why did she latch onto Nogrod - something Nogrod himself was wary of? Did she accept SpM's accusation of Nogrod, thus thinking Nogrod was Faithful, and so attack what she thought was an innocent SpM? If so, why? SpM's accusation of Nogrod was not terribly convincing.

I suppose it's not really worth speculating on it. We'll never know; Tar-Miroa won't tell us. And it's not very important anyway.

On to analyses of Lalaith, Brinniel and perhaps Thinlo after that outburst.

[Gil-Galad]

so let me get this straight, Roa is Tar-Miriel(the cobbler) then? or what?


well my vote for Saucey is mainly, as always, that his posts are rather rare at times, he comes in, says a rahter long speech that probably only half of us try to read, then leaves again. i'm not criticizing him for the one post thing, just the big thing that tries to sum everything up, so my vote still stays

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.
I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

I am perplexed. Our village is really going from bad to worse. Not only our numbers have thinned somehow in a very quick way, not only that Rikae is most likely doomed to die this night, but Roa is a cobbler!?! I was quite inclined to consider her a helpful villager at first, seems my judgement is not as good as I thought.

And to that what Rikae mentioned - what to do with Roa now. I agree it would be better to let her go, she cannot do much if we don't heed to her advice, or can she? If she can somehow help the wolves yet, I think it would be safer to get rid of her instead of risking lynching someone innocent. And, by the way, does she count into the villager count since she's been already revealed?

Originally Posted by Rune son of Bjarne

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

I still feel the same about Mänwe, I think he acts weird and I do suspect him, but for some reason at the same time I have seriouse doubts that he is a wolf. . . It is hard to explain, but it was kind of the same feeling I had about Garin and that was why I mentioned that I would rather lynch Legate.

Oh, Rune, I can assure you I am not a cartoon bad guy. The thing with Hookbill I already explained. I am trying to collect as much as I can from what is going on around and then understanding it, and since I don't see anything much clear, I try to clear it up as much as I could. Brinniel at that time seemed replying seriously to a joke and I came right after her, so I asked. Nothing more, nothing less.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent.

Exactly. After all, the plurality allows us to come to a better conclusion, one can correct what someone else has misinterpretated or overlooked, etc. Now I really see the power of the Seer and realize what loss it is to lose Rikae.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe

I don't see anything wrong with Lommy. She is as much suspicious as anyone else, but I found her thoughts rather logical so far. Unless she is masking herself too well with some inventive thoughts, like Roa did.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

In "response" to this I would quote one of Hookbill's earlier posts:

Originally Posted by Hookbill the Goomba

I've only played once before and it was a long while ago. In my last game I made terrible mistakes and generally had a bad game. Hence I've been hesitant to join any WW games because the first one went so badly.

I tend to believe Hookbill. Again, as with Lommy, if he is not bluffing very good, which I doubt, I think he speaks the truth.

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

If everybody were forced to vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, all of us - wolves included - would have to vote based on what is definitely innocent knowledge.

I think this is nonsense. As I said above, we need the plurality, otherwise we are stuck.

Lastly, my own inventive thoughts from what has happened here. I see we cannot bear as true what Roa presented to us, although it fills half of this thread. And at first I was going to thank her for this. *sigh* Now, I will stay focused on my own point of view, since other peoples' hints might prove to be wrong as they did now. Ah! Seems I finally caught the point of how this game is to be played. All right boys, will be back with some constructive thoughts.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.

I don't know why the real seer hasn't come forward to destroy your claim, but perhaps they are waiting till tomorrow, when you clearly won't be dead. I know you have only my word to go on, but Rikae is lying! I'd sooner suspect her of being Tar-Miriel than a Faithful with this suicidal plan, but I'm not sure.

I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

Of course you wouldn't- it'd prove you were lying. Lynch me if you must, but wait until tomorrow, and then lynch her, becuase she'll still be around.

Only a few people can comeofrward and prove me right. Please do!

[the guy who be short]

Lalaith

Her first post is logical - we should not be sharing info on how to find gifteds!

Post 106 is when I first looked at her. She votes for Holbytlass for saing "I'm not sure who we're to pray to." Picking up on language like that seems silly when there's so much else going on. It was also a safe vote - Rikae and Garin had 4 each, Manwe had 3. As such, it seemed a waste of a vote cast for a reason lacking much thought behind it.

Posts 118-9 she tells Rikae to reveal her dream, then says not to because the wolves will kill this person if she does. I'm not sure what to make of this; it could be interpreted for or against Lalaith.

Her final post on day 1, post 129, switches her vote to Manwe to help save Rakae. I think at this point Rakae was already saved, was she not? In any case, that seems fairly reasonable to me.

All her posts today seem perfectly fine to me. I don't regard her as very suspicious after doing this analysis. In fact, I realise that my suspicion stemmed from Roa, who made Lalaith appear Faithful in her analysis. This, if anything, proves the importance of not taking other people's word for it - do research yourself. You are the only person you can trust.

Next, Brinniel.

[Roa_Aoife]

TGWBS - I was not the only person, nor the first, to find Lalaith odd looking. My analysis picks on every little detail, that's why I pride myself on it. Please, I didn't have any sinnister intentions with it.

[the guy who be short]

Brinniel has only posted 4 times.

Post 44 doesn't say much. She defends Manwe a little, attacks Hookbill a little, but that's it really. Not much to go on.

Post 49 continues in this way. She says she doesn't suspect anybody.

Post 85 votes for Rikae and suspects Garin. Now... I may be biased here, having suspected both these people yesterDay, but the logic seems sound to me. Garin's vote-switching was odd. Rikae's sudden vote was odd. However, perhaps Brinniel was merely latching onto these ideas which had already been formulated by others.

Post 181, today, ever-so-mildly accuses Hookbill.

I suppose what worries most about Brinniel is that she says so incredibly little. Her posts are scarce and scanty. It's hard to form an opinion about such a person, which is what worries me - it's so easy to avoid attention.

Potential vote from me. First, I will also analyse Mith, my last personal suspect.

[Roa_Aoife]

*sigh* So you're content to ignore me. Perhaps you are in this with Rikae, I don't know, but someone please listen instead of just blindly accepting her word for this!

I'd do an analysis on Rikae, but I fear it would be useless.

If no one's willing to listen, I'm going to stop talking.

[the guy who be short]

Roa - while others did mildly suspect Lalaith before you, you were the first to put together a case that was actually convincing.

Mithalwen

Post 6 is now infamous - how to tell gifteds from Faithfuls.

Post 67 - Says she's been quiet as she's been away from a computer.

Post 74 - She says she sees nothing odd about Roa. She defends her initial statement about telling gifteds from Faithfuls, stressing that she said she doesn't want the village to force gifteds to out themselves.

Post 87 - says Garin is always weird.

Post 101 - Disagrees with a post by Roa; says the Faithful would not let a gifted live.

Post 104 - Suspects Lalaith for "miscontruing" her post about sorting gifteds from Faithfuls. Also says it's hard to suspect anybody.

Post 112 - Cannot decide whom to vote for.

Post 115 - Says Rikae will be found out if she's lying.


Well, I'm cutting it off there. My entire suspicion of Mith was based on that single first post (which she has defended vehemently). It still doesn't feel right to me, but the rest of what she says seems okay. I'm no longer too worried about her.