Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

I voted at the last minute because I was afraid someone would vote for me and I would need to save myself.
Sure, that may be selfish, but that's how it is.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Either that, or he accused someone he hadn't dreamt of! But I expect that he considered my death less harmful to the village than his (which it would be.)

Not sure I buy this one. With so low numbers in the village, if I really exaggerate, it almost does not matter whether one is a Seer or an Ordo, and "collateral damage" of one Ordo is still quite a setback for the village.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, that's what I'm thinking - they would have been less likely to if he appeared not only useful to them, but decidedly un-seerish. I think Menel is a wiser player than he's usually given credit for, and he would know better than to make himself obviously seerish to the wolves when there was no ranger about.

Well yes, I am not underestimating him either, but I still find it quite risky. I mean - imagine him dreaming of all three wolves, but the very Night he reveals the third one he, by some bad luck, dies. It's very bold, but also very risky. No disrespect to Menel in the aspect of bravery, but it will be a very bold move.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Another thing is - he did suspect Mac for two consecutive days, and Mac was the person it probably made most sense for him to dream of on Night 2, being at the center of Day 1's controversy.

Well yes, that's true, and it remains of question why he did not dream of him - unless he indeed did not dream of him and continue to suspect him only to mislead the wolves, though I find it overcombinated. It may be he simply did not have time to dream of all he suspected.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So he dreamt of me on Night1 and of Rikae on Night2.

Well, not quite sure, Nog. As you can see from my post, it is possible that he dreamt of Rikae on Night 1 and Shasta on Night 2, and if Shasta is innocent and Menel revealed that, it would explain why he suddenly ceased to suspect him. Your explanation of things also sounds possible, but surely not 100% certain. And I am not aware whether he referred to you that often; in fact, he once referred to LG and mistook her with you. Maybe, but not necessarily sure.

edit: x-posted since my last post. Keep x-posting. Johnny x-poster.

[Rikae]

By the way, Nogrod should be lynched just for being so dreadfully chauvinistic!

EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

[Nogrod]

I love you Rikae!

Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos*

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, not quite sure, Nog. As you can see from my post, it is possible that he dreamt of Rikae on Night 1 and Shasta on Night 2, and if Shasta is innocent and Menel revealed that, it would explain why he suddenly ceased to suspect him. Your explanation of things also sounds possible, but surely not 100% certain. And I am not aware whether he referred to you that often

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

So it's not 100%... and in the end it doesn't matter as if the wolves think it plausible enough for many enough people here they will kill me the next Night anyway. There's no ranger to protect an almost-known innocent.

Just noticed this:

Originally Posted by the Wolf

By the way, Nogrod should be lynched just for being so dreadfully chauvinistic!

Sorry, but I'm in an RPG here named "Treachery of Men" and that allusion kind of came to me and I couldn't resist - as you in the end quite coolly orchestrated the lynching of your loved one...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

Hmm... I thought it was strange how he came up with the idea of Sally, Mac and I being wolves together yesterday, explaining Mac's and my votes as attempts to protect Sally when there would have been several other options for that. If he dreamt of her and found her a wolf, that might explain it.

I also think he might have dreamt of Gwath that night. He's fixed on the idea that wolves were responsible for Agan's lynching, but he absolves Gwath very easily (when, as I pointed out yesterday, Gwath had a vote placement that was both safe, and influential - as well as basically unexplained.) Menel dismisses the idea of Gwath being a wolf with:

Originally Posted by Menel

Macalaure's lynching is coming closer, and then Gwathagor votes for the suspicious-but-most-likely-innocent Agan. That's fine; Gwath is rather new here and it's an honest mistake.

and treats him as if he were a known innocent thereafter, so perhaps he dreamt of him and, finding him innocent, assumed Mac and/or I must be a wolf.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I love you Rikae!
Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos*

I've got to make an effort to help the village. I was right about Mac, and might be of some use yet.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just noticed this: Sorry, but I'm in an RPG here named "Treachery of Men" and that allusion kind of came to me and I couldn't resist - as you in the end quite coolly orchestrated the lynching of your loved one...

Call my behavior yesterday what you like, but I don't think you can call it "cool" -- and who argued all night against lynching Mac? I still can't see why you found him so suspicious (but then, you seem to pretty much always think that of him.)

By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

Yup, that's true. "Collateral damage", indeed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

Well, personally I don't think it probable, though it's just my own opinion. You can find the quotes I posted up there, he spoke about Sally only in two posts of his. It's true he did not mention her before Day 2, but on the other hand, he does not seem much certain to me. If anything, I could imagine him dreaming of her on Night 3 - which would be a logical conclusion, and theoretically, if Sally is a Wolf, this might have been a reason, or played a role in, him being killed that Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Well, he said he would have voted for her on Day 1. And I don't think there were many reservations. He was maybe more active on Day 2, but that he was overall, I think (also given by Rikae herself, as he kept responding to her).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

Yes, maybe you are right that he would have changed his opinion had he found him innocent. On the other hand, what if he did not just for the reason that he would not profile himself as Seer, with sudden change of opinions? Silence might have been sufficient.

Well, I am probably going to leave now and go to sleep - I felt surprisingly fresh and I did not even realise what the time is; and suddenly it fell on me.

edit: x-ed with Rikae twice

[Nogrod]

It's really getting late but I think I need to make this point before I go.

Now in the end of the Day2 the situation was a follows.

-11 minutes
Rikae2, Sally1

-4 minutes
Rikae2, Mac2, Sally1

Of those not voted yet at that time we knew that Rikae, Mac and myself were around - no one else had given any sign of being there.

So where were you Rikae? If you were an ordo actually convinced that Mac was an ordo too you would have made an effort - to suggest Mac a deal like you had the earlier Day or to ask my views.

You could have saved Mac easily with suggesting a vote on Sally. I don't blame you for not voting her as her quite emotional posts at the end of the Day had gotten all of us quite startled. But if you "knew" Mac was innocent why didn't you post in to ask for ideas? The three of us could have lynched anyone at that point.

Or was Sally in the end your co-wolf and thence you did not vote for her?

That would indeed explain a bit more why Menel was killed. In the end of Day2 he said quite comfortably that Mac, Rikae and Sally were the three wolves. He was wrong with Mac but hitting the nail in the head two times after two dreams was enough for the wolves?

I still believe that was not the case and that Menel came up with Sally during the gameplay on Day2. Those of you who have played with him before know his style of being quite uncomptromising to put it mildly. He didn't come up with things to say about Sally until about the half-day, saying:

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

Comparing this to how he went after Rikae there's a marked difference...

But the wolves couldn't ignore that - so Menel was a dead man.

And even if Sally is an ordo (which she can be) - Menel was a dead man still because of his attack on Rikae that was "seery" enough.


In any case at certain point the wolves can be quite cool at those in the end discussions - even able to just look on what happens with a grin only ready to intervene if something drastic is going to happen. Rikae's actions in the end of Day2 look very wolvish indeed even without Menel's stance on her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful.

And you dare to say that I'm the one suggesting thinking things in a way convenient to myself?

But honestly, what could we learn from there? To other innocents he was a non-known (so possibly a wolf or an ordo) and to wolves a possible (good) lynchée. What can you say of it? I know that if we lynch a wolf there's lots to read there about the interaction as we can see how the wolve's fellows possibly treated her/him, but?

By no means do look. All things count. One never knows what one can find but certainly this looks more like a distraction than anything else. Sorry Rikae.

Edit: X'd with Legate

[Rikae]

Here Legate goes again, narrowing the field. I was suspicious yesterday, with his singular focus on Mac and I, that he intended to lynch one yesterday and the other toDay, and the choice of kill last Night certainly fits that profile. Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalaure was the only logical lynch yesterDay, he words everything as if there were no question, toDay, who Menel dreamt of and when.
It's funny how Nerwen said yesterDay that she needed "a lot more" to go on before she'd consider lynching Legate - the fact is, he is not the sort to slip up in any obvious way. The sneaky, subtle manipulation of perspectives is his style of evil, and it's all over him here.

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ... I'm going to have a closer look at these thrree. Sally does make sense as Menel's night 2 dream, considering his day 2 conspiracy theory, and Nogrod has me fairly convinced he was dreamt of on day one (even though it works in his favor.) I'll be back with more, but maybe not right away -- I've got quite a lot to do this evening in RL.

EDIT: x'd with Nogrod and fixed a typo

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So where were you Rikae? If you were an ordo actually convinced that Mac was an ordo too you would have made an effort - to suggest Mac a deal like you had the earlier Day or to ask my views.

It took me too long to make my vote, you're right, but it was in no way a deliberate plot. I almost voted earlier, but held back for fear of being lynched after I voted -- but I didn't intend it to be the last second.

If I had offered Mac a deal, it might have sealed my fate, and wouldn't have been enough anyway - three votes were needed, and anyone could come in at any time and lynch either of us.

[Rikae]

Oh yeah, and:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And you dare to say that I'm the one suggesting thinking things in a way convenient to myself?

I have Mac on the phone, and he was complaining that he didn't get a proper analysis after his death.
It hardly helps me, since I would have known he was innocent as a wolf even more than as an ordo -- and you'll note I didn't analyze him myself.

[Rikae]

Sorry to quadruple post, but:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The three of us could have lynched anyone at that point.

With you? When you suspected both of us?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ...

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalure was the only logical lynch yesterDay

I can't resist saying this... I do agree with you Rikae. I was having a good night's cigarette on the balcony and thought whether I should post once more to say that Legate's agreeable - yet on the crucial points a slightly disagreeing - style makes me a bit nervous about him.

But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf?

Also toDay that strategy is worthwhile. If Rikae makes a case on a fellow Legate and is lynched then Legate looks good. And if for some miraculous reason Rikae is not lynched but Legate is, then Rikae looks better. And as we can't afford too many mislynches anymore then any confusion is playing to the wolves' cause.

Originally Posted by Rikae

With you? When you suspected both of us?

But I also said it quite clearly that I was not too happy with lynching any one of you three and that I would like to see new candidates...

Originally Posted by me at -56 minutes

To me it depends on the choises we have toDay. But I'd love to see new ideas - or to get them myself.

Then I made a few points about Gwath and Sally and ended the post:

Originally Posted by me at -30 minutes

Oh my... so little time left. Ideas anyone?

Originally Posted by me at -21 minutes

Speak your minds people. We don't need any last minute frenzies.

And after f.ex. agreeing with you Rikae I said:

Originally Posted by me at -5 minutes

After we see who will in the end turn out and actually vote we'll be much more wiser as to who were hiding at the last moments.

But the fact is I'm not very happy with any of the candidates right now. Of those three I'd pick Mac though.

So you can't say I was trying to get you both killed!

Good night now...

AUCH!

Originally Posted by Gwath

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

Oh my... Please reconsider Gwath. You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

[Farael]

The Modly Disclaimer
There has been a bit of a misunderstanding between Roa and I. I asked her to check half hour after the deadline to see if I had posted, and if not start/end the day herself and then she told me to let her know if I knew I'd be skipping a deadline. I assumed that was in addition to her checking, so that she could have a bit of warning and the day would start when scheduled.

What happened to me this morning was that I was bed-ridden from eight to ten due to severe back pain (and I mean "severe" as in "if I got up and tried to walk, I'd get dizzy") and then I had to rush to school. I thought by then Roa would've checked the thread and my day was rather busy up until now, so I really had no time to check the thread.

There are two alternatives as far as what we can do with this day. I would be able to end it 24 hours after it started today (1 30 PM my time tomorrow) but we cannot keep that as a deadline, as I'll sure won't be anywhere near a computer during my trip at 1 PM. If the wolves agree, we can have the day last for 24 hours and the following night last only until the regular deadline. To make it up for them, the wolves would be able to pm for the first three hours of the folowing day. I think that is a fair deal, and it doesnt give them the advantage of being able to communicate during voting time.

Of course, the wolves should PM me their thoughts, and any ordos who object should do the same.

Doctor says I should be fine by tomorrow and I feel a lot better already, there will hopefully be no more major problems with the deadlines.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf?

Hey, at least I'm being listened to - and if you lynch Legate toMorrow, I've accomplished something.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you can't say I was trying to get you both killed!

Of course not. But you could concievably have voted for either of us, or so I thought. Saying you want to see other candidates when you don't have any other suspects yourself, well, doesn't sound that serious.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

Why does this look familiar?

[McCaber]

Tentative thoughts include a Rikae/Sally/Nerwen trio.

And Rikae is right. No one so far has done a real analysis of Mac. I shall return with thoughts from my point of view, but perhaps more than one would be useful.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick Summary de Sally. Sorry to be so brief, but I need to toddle off to church or I'll be late. These are just iniitial thoughts, so don't be surprised if I actually fully read the posts and change my mind on a couple things. But at least it'll give you all something to go on while I'm away.

Menel's Dream guess for Night one: Rikae. Result? Wolf. He cranks up the suspicion notch on her quite a bit, and doesn't back off her no matter what.

Menel's Dream guess for Night two: Shasta???? Result? Innocent. Big question mark on this one, but I'll give a better guess later. But he seems to disregard any possibility of a Shastawolf after this Night.

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie. No worries, I'll try to explain later as promised. Happy discussion while I'm away.

P.S. I'm sorry you haven't been feeling well, Farael. Don't worry about the game, we understand that sometimes RL just plain gets in the way. No big deal. Make sure to feel better though, or we'll have your hide.

[Rikae]

Ok, I'm really starting to think I'm on to something with Sally. I originally pretty much ignored her because I actually try to work against the knee-jerk impulse to lynch weird, hard to understand people, as they usually turn out innocent. But Menel's behavior yesterday fits with the possibility of her wolvishness, and now... look at this:

Originally Posted by Sally, yesterDay

Nerwen, Legate, Cabbie: I'm leaning innocent, if only because I can't get a read off them. I'll know more about Cabbie once he posts more stuff, and Legate and Nerwen seem confused by everything that's going on, so I'm inclined to think them innocent just based on their naivete.

Originally Posted by Me, today

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now

Originally Posted by Gwath, today

I am beginning to lean this way myself

Originally Posted by Sally, today

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie.

Hmm. I can just see Sally saying “they're on to us... backpedal! Backpedal!”

A lesser point, but also, what is this?

Originally Posted by Sally

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

It's hard to explain, but this just makes me uneasy. Why is it necessary to explain why he might have dreamt of her, and that she “wouldn't blame him”? It just reads as somehow over-the-top to me – pre-emptive, as if she's thinking “well, I don't want people thinking he dreamt of me earlier... but claiming he dreamt of me at all means admitting I'm suspicious... better mention it myself, first.”

EDIT: Fixing messed-up paragraph spacing.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Menel the seer? The only sense I can make of that is that he must have put his hopes in throwing the wolves off his track by doing nothing but accusing an ordo, so he could have as many dreams as possible before revealing. Considering that there was no Ranger, that makes sense - but apparently the wolves thought killing him was a good opportunity to frame me.

Well, hey, anything is possible. Does anyone else think it's likely?

Originally Posted by Rikae

[sarcasm]Oh, my! How could we have possibly lynched an innocent Macalaure?

Well, my dear, try– because you defended him so fiercely that everyone started to think there was something between you.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, this is a watertight argument -- we should focus solely on the Macalaure-voters(Legate, Greenie and Nerwen) today. Sure, there are 9 people here, but as Nerwen says "we can only lynch one at a time"!
[/sarcasm]

Once again, you (wilfully? wolfily?) twist my words. I never said we should focus solely on the Aganzir voters. No-one did, as far as I can remember. And personally, I found you increasingly suspicious yesterday, not because you voted Agan, but because you were so determined that nobody should discuss the voting.

And actually, I agree we should look at the Mac voters (yes, Rikae, including me), and at last night's voting in general. There are three wolves, after all.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, I do find the Macalaure voters wolfish, not because they lynched an ordo, but because they created suspicion out of thin air. I analyzed it yesterday, just go back and look -- the reasons behind lynching Macalaure were utter... mist.

I disagree. I think he looked innocent to you because– well, you knew he was innocent (just as you said, but for different reasons). I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

Edit: X'd with Rikae.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oh my... Please reconsider Gwath. You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

Her distress YesterDay seemed both genuine and innocent. It is, of course, possible that she just did a really really good job of faking it, but I'll make my mind up about that as the Day progresses. The only thing that might convince me is the fact that Menel the Seer was quite adamant about her guilt. Maybe he dreamed about someone else, such as Sally, and just strongly suspected Rikae?

Nerwen and Legate seem the most wolfish to me, at the moment. They have played it pretty safe so far. If they are wolves, then the most suspicious thing they've done was both voting to kill Macalaure...but, of course, most of us suspected him at some point yesterDay, so maybe it was a safe move?

Sally or A Little Green might be the third wolf. On the one hand, Sally, as Rikae pointed out, has acted funny enough to merit inspection. On the other hand, LG voted with Nerwen and Legate to kill Mac...which could be either a point for or against her, since one could argue that all three wolves wouldn't vote together. Or perhaps they would, because they knew we thought they wouldn't...? Bother.

It seems probably to me that Menel dreamed about Nogrod the first night, and so we should count him innocent.

Yeah, lotsa questions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Her distress YesterDay seemed both genuine and innocent. It is, of course, possible that she just did a really really good job of faking it, but I'll make my mind up about that as the Day progresses.

But I think it was quite genuine– see my comment:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

Yesterday it was more ambiguous, because we didn't know Menel's role. He went after her pretty heavily, so much so that I had it in mind that he was likely either the Seer or a wolf. My doubt over that is why I finally decided not to vote Rikae.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Nerwen and Legate seem the most wolfish to me, at the moment. They have played it pretty safe so far.

Playing it safe... well, I have been, yes. So have a lot of people. In this game, playing styles seem to be neatly divided between "creep-around-in-the-shadows" and "jump-up-and-down-yelling-for-attention". It's been very hard to get a grip on things.

As for Rikae – there always the chance that she's innocent, the victim of an unusual set of circumstances– including very odd conduct from the Seer– which has made her the perfect victim. But I'd say it's a small chance indeed.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

It seems probably to me that Menel dreamed about Nogrod the first night, and so we should count him innocent.

Don't count anyone as definitely innocent. One third of the surviving players are wolves, remember.

[Rikae]

Now Nerwen, no need to take that tone. After all, you're hardly in immediate danger of lynching today.

Still, if you go on coming up with absurdities, you might just change that...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, my dear, try– because you defended him so fiercely that everyone started to think there was something between you.

This, for instance. Nerwen suspected Mac, of course, before I defended him - in fact, it was primarily her baseless accusations I defended him against. But now, Mac was lynched because of me... that's some nice revisionist history there!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Once again, you (wilfully? wolfily?) twist my words. I never said we should focus solely on the Aganzir voters.

Actions speak louder than words, "my dear."

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I disagree. I think he looked innocent to you because– well, you knew he was innocent (just as you said, but for different reasons). I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

What's a "stalking horse" anyway? I've already pointed out enough times why the points against Mac were weak. No point in arguing with someone who twists the words of everyone (how many times have we already seen this from Nerwen? She was doing it to Mac on day one.)I'll just point out to the innocent villagers the way Nerwen implies I defended Mac more strongly out of fear defending him would get me lynched!

Since I mentioned Nerwen/Legate/Sally, both the ladies have given me more reason to believe in it.

Originally Posted by Gwath

On the other hand, LG voted with Nerwen and Legate to kill Mac...which could be either a point for or against her, since one could argue that all three wolves wouldn't vote together. Or perhaps they would, because they knew we thought they wouldn't...? Bother.

It wouldn't be unheard of - I've seen it happen before. Still, it's a very bold move and not often done.

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nerwen suspected Mac, of course, before I defended him - in fact, it was primarily her baseless accusations I defended him against. But now, Mac was lynched because of me... that's some nice revisionist history there!

When did I say that was the only reason I suspected Mac?

Originally Posted by Rikae

What's a "stalking horse" anyway? I've already pointed out enough times why the points against Mac were weak. No point in arguing with someone who twists the words of everyone (how many times have we already seen this from Nerwen? She was doing it to Mac on day one.)I'll just point out to the innocent villagers the way Nerwen implies I defended Mac more strongly out of fear defending him would get me lynched!

By that time you couldn't back down without looking worse– also it was better for you to shift the attention back to Macalaure, rather than yourself. I could be wrong, but that's how it looks to me.

From the O.E.D:

stalking- horse n. 1. a horse or screen behind which a hunter is concealed. 2. a pretext concealing one's real actions or intentions.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By that time you couldn't back down without looking worse– also it was better for you to shift the attention back to Macalaure, rather than yourself. I could be wrong, but that's how it looks to me.

Sounds like a stretch to me.

What do you think, Legate? Who should we lynch?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What an uneventful birthday.

Anyway, I'm still leery of voting Rikae becacuse of her reaction to the votes against Mac yesterday. To me, they seemed like something an innocent would say. But the antics of Menel as Seer are hard to ignore.

I'm wondering if maybe we shouldn't take a look at some of those people saying less than usual... Lily, McCaber, Gwathagor, for example.

Having brought up Lily, I'd like it noted that something about the back-and-forth between her and Nerwen on Day 1 seemed.... I don't know, choreographed? I could be completely wrong here, but that's just my impression. I'm getting the smallest similar vibe from Nerwen and Rikae today. Again, could be completely way of base, but I think a Nerwen/Lily/Rikae trio has possibilities. Since I have to vote right now, for fear of modfire, and there are many others who believe Rikae to be guilty, I'm going to place another option up. A "just in case something turns up", but also someone I'm a bit suspicious of.

++Nerwen

[Gwathagor]

Happy birthday Shastanis. Aman minyare! It's actually my dad's as well, as well as one of my friend's. Popular day.

I want to hear from more people...but, I suppose everyone will be on tonight while I am asleep.

[satansaloser2005]

Talk, talk, talk. All this talk and nothing really resolved. Pity.

First of all, a nice little short announcement/plea/whatever you want to call it. Please, please, PLEASE let's not have a repeat of the last two days. By this I mean let's not have people being added to the lynch list at *clears throat* a minute before deadline and half the village not even showing up to vote until a quarter til. I'm sorry, but that's just ridiculous.



I'm beginning to see the connection between Rikae and Nerwen more and more clearly now. They seem rivals, yes? But I think this isn't the case, far from it in fact. They've been on opposite ends for a while now (quite handy wolf strategy) and now I think one, if not both, of them are threatened with a noose and so it's in their best interest to push themselves even farther apart. See today's discussion. Back and forth, back and forth between those two. It just seems to staged. Or is that just me? Oh, and Shasta, thanks for pointing out the exchanges between Greenie and Nerwen as well. I'll have to look into them.


Apologies, but my posting's been interrupted. A friend of mine student teaches and needs some help putting together some valentines for her little miscreants....I mean, students. I'll be back later. Post lots and lots while I'm gone!


P.S. Happy birthday Shasta! I'm sorry it wasn't terribly eventful, but I hope you had a good day nonetheless, boring though it may be. Good night!

[McCaber]

I return from my evening prayers to find that my computer has reset itself.

Well, about my Macanalysis. Basically I thought that he was pushed by the village and misguided by wolves into a pretty bad position. It seemed to me as if Rikae manipulated him by taking his side and Nerwen led the attack from the mob.

I would speak more, but my studies are demanding. I will think, write, and report as time allows.

[Gwathagor]

I am about to retire for the evening. If anyone's interested in my current position, it is this: I will either vote for Legate or Nerwen. I think Rikae is innocent.

Let's get a wolf this time.

[satansaloser2005]

Terribly sorry, but my friend just left and I'm quite tired. I think I'll go to bed for now. Since that's the case, I also am not in the mood to make a snazzy long-winded post, so I'll just give some quick feedback and some feelings I'm getting from the last few posts.

I don't like Gwath's last few posts (save the one about Shasta's birthday). Up until today, he was holding his own and ready to vote for whoever he found guilty regardless of whether other people approved of his votes. Today, he specifically asks Legate, "Who do you think we should lynch?" I'm not (or at least don't think I am) suggesting a wolf pair here, but I think Gwath's sudden change into codependency should be noted. Also, I find it odd how he just dismisses Rikae in his last post without another thought, even though she's getting quite a lot of attention. It's almost as if he's trying to look too obvious, attempting to slip past the metal detectors by wearing an impermeable and steel-toed boots. I just don't like the way things are adding up here.

Okay, off to bed now. Sorry I've been so slack-adaisical toDay, but it's my busiest day of the week classwise so I've been preoccupied. I'll try to post more in the morning before I skedaddle to work, but alas it may only be another quick post and vote session. Sleep well, my fellow pesky Americans!

[Gwathagor]

I better stick up for myself now, lest Sally's post turn into a lynch mob while I am asleep.

I asked Legate's opinion because his response would help me figure out what I think of him. Kind of a ranging shot, to see how he reacts.

The only reason I'm saving my vote is that if I cast it now, it is easier for other voters to act against it, and I want to make sure that it's as effective as possible. Then again, everyone seems to be voting at the last minute anyway, so perhaps it won't do me much good.

Good night.

[Nerwen]

Some thoughts:

If Rikae is a wolf, why did she vote for me?

At that time, it ran thus:

Mac 2, Rikae 2, Sally 1, Gwath 1.

So Rikae had a need to save herself. She could hardly vote Mac after defending him all Day– but why not Gwath or Sally? Sally was under quite a lot of suspicion, and had already voted Rikae.

And then there's the late vote by McCaber. Could the wolves be Rikae, McCaber and someone else who failed to vote (but whom they were expecting)?

...but then we're back with the problem of why they didn't vote Sally or Gwath.

If Rikae is not a wolf, then who did Menel dream of on Night2? And why did he behave as he did?

[McCaber]

Nerwen, I woke up three minutes before the DL and needed to vote fast. Either you or Mac I would have been fine with, and you were the first that came to mind. (And I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for my meddling alarm clock)

[Nogrod]

I'm in a hurry but just remainding you people.

Menel was the seer.

He suspected Rikae on Day1 - with some reservations at least in the beginning but enough to give his vote to her in the end.

He jumped on Rikae with full force - with no reservations whatsoever from the beginning of Day2.

Need we say more?

Night2 dream = Rikae = wolf.


She plays beautifully and kudos for that but there are just facts contradicting her words.

Only Menel acting in the most weird and unresponsible way could change that assessment. And he's a seasoned player.

[Nerwen]

Look, at this point it would take a lot to convince me not to vote Rikae– but weird things do happen sometimes.

If she's a wolf, who are the others?

I mean, there's Legate, Lily and McCaber (and you, Nogrod), who've been creeping around in the background most of the time. You'd think at least one wolf would be trying that.

Then there's Sally– apart from everything else against her, Rikae has a point here:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Why is it necessary to explain why he might have dreamt of her, and that she “wouldn't blame him”? It just reads as somehow over-the-top to me – pre-emptive, as if she's thinking “well, I don't want people thinking he dreamt of me earlier... but claiming he dreamt of me at all means admitting I'm suspicious... better mention it myself, first.”

And Shasta– I hadn't seriously suspected him before, but now I really hope he's a wolf. If he's not, there's three wolves out there who can jump on that vote of his.

Finally, there's this Gwathagor character. What is he up to?

I wish I had time to read through everything, but I can't. I've got an audition tomorrow.

Edit: fixed bolding.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

What do you think, Legate? Who should we lynch?

If you wish, I think Menel's suspicion on Rikae was based on his dreams, either on Night 1 or 2, and therefore, I think she is a Wolf. Of all the people, I am most convinced about her. Otherwise, there is Sally, whom I suspect still, also counting with the voting patterns: it was already mentioned here; Rikae could have voted her, yet chose not to. So that's also one more reason to lynch her, as I believe if Rikae is indeed a Wolf, Sally might be very likely as well.

Before anything happens, I won't be as fast to jump into conclusions who the last wolf might be (and that is, we don't even know about these two). But these two I find likely to be connected. Now, I can't say I would be 100% sure of anyone's innocence, as after reading toDay's posts, it may be almost either way. But all the lines go to Rikae, as I said, of all I am most convinced about her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Otherwise, there is Sally, whom I suspect still, also counting with the voting patterns: it was already mentioned here; Rikae could have voted her, yet chose not to.

Lest we forget: she could have voted Gwathagor, too. And he's beginning to worry me– as are his interactions with Legate and Sally. Look at this series:

(#294, replying to Rikae's suggestion that the wolves are Sally, Nerwen & Legate)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

(#302)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Nerwen and Legate seem the most wolfish to me, at the moment. They have played it pretty safe so far.

(#306)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

What do you think, Legate? Who should we lynch?

So he's all for lynching Legate, then he's asking him how to vote.


(#311)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I am about to retire for the evening. If anyone's interested in my current position, it is this: I will either vote for Legate or Nerwen. I think Rikae is innocent.

No, wait, he's back to lynching him!


Then Sally says:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Today, he specifically asks Legate, "Who do you think we should lynch?" I'm not (or at least don't think I am) suggesting a wolf pair here, but I think Gwath's sudden change into codependency should be noted.

and he responds:
(#313)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I better stick up for myself now, lest Sally's post turn into a lynch mob while I am asleep.

I asked Legate's opinion because his response would help me figure out what I think of him. Kind of a ranging shot, to see how he reacts.

Ideas, anyone? Is he just very confused, or is there something more to it?

Edit: word left out.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen, I don't think there is anything particularly suspicious in Gwathagor's actions. I believe he is only, as you say, confused. As a new player, such things are possible. Yet you are right that he was a voting option back then as well. Anyway, we cannot collect much from it as long as we don't know identities of the concerned people.

EDIT: One technical question. Roa posted one version of DL time with the narration, Farael proposed something different here. Which one will be the real DL? And Farael, do I understand it right that your version is 7:30 PM GMT?