Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Evisse the Blue]

And it's mostly aimed at me and at those who arrived yesterday just in time for the lynching and didn't get to cast the vote. I was foolishly certain the voting deadline was 6 PM GMT. For what it's worth it, I'm really sorry, Kath. And if you guys are wondering, I was going to vote, and my vote would have been for Oddwen. So all the more I kick myself right now, because even if Oddwen is innocent, I doubt she is a gifted villager. But then again, nobody guessed Kath was a gifted villager - although, having looked back now I read things differently: the way she reacted to phantom's plan, recognizing that it could offer her protection.
I too am at a loss as to why Azaelia was slaughtered by the werewolves tonight (and in such a gruesome way too! )

But something else is on my mind right now: Feanor's vote for Eomer yesterday. I don't find any logical basis for it, and it seemed to be a gut reaction to him suspecting her. Anyway, I am most puzzled by the time when she chose to cast that vote (20 minutes before the deadline) - and while some of us thought the deadline extended to 6 PM GMT, Fea knew the voting was going to end in 18 minutes, she said so in her post. By that time, 4 other people were voted for. The chances that innocents were going to come in those 18 minutes to ensure that 5 people didn't get lynched were about as high (or I'd rather say 'low') as werewolves coming along to ensure a few more got lynched. If no one else showed up, those 5 would have died anyway. Now, the problem is we can't know for sure if people didn't vote because they didn't pay attention to the deadline change or werewolves didn't show up to vote because a werewolf was on that list. Or - the other possibility, that has already been mentioned, that werewolves did vote. In that last case, Fea's vote for Eomer when so little time was left seems highly suspicious.

[Celuien]

Thanks, Firefoot.

The more I think about it, the more suspicious I am of Saurreg. It doesn't make sense for an innocent not to vote once the tie was in place. Reading his post again, it looks like he expected not three but five villagers to die since we didn't know that Anguirel and Esgallhugwen had given notice of their absence yet. In fact, seeing that post almost made me wish I could retract my vote for Oddwen. Of course, I realize that I was involved in creating the tie, but at the time, the only other votes were for Kath and Esgallhugwen. I saw no reason to be suspicious of Kath, so I didn't vote for her. I didn't want to vote for a villager who hadn't said anything yet, which is why I didn't cast my vote for Esgallhugwen. And I did expect a few more people to vote before the deadline to prevent a potential five-villager slaughter. I'm going to be watching closely for Saurreg's posts...

I suppose Azaelia's selection could have been a random draw from the non-loudmouth pool.

Maybe the reason that the phantom wasn't targeted (assuming he's not a wolf, of course) is that he said that he expected to be killed soon and they weren't going to give him credibility.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

But something else is on my mind right now: Feanor's vote for Eomer yesterday. I don't find any logical basis for it, and it seemed to be a gut reaction to him suspecting her.

You know why I voted for Eomer? Because I was truly only suspicious of three people. You know which three people? The phantom, Eomer, and Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (she, by the way, is "Someone Else"). None of them were on the list, so no matter what, I was going to be voting for somebody besides those people. I wasn't about to vote for a person I didn't suspect. So I had my three guesses, and I had to pick which one. I posted my suspect post and then, when finished, I looked at the clock, remembered I had to go take a three hour Regents exam very soon, and then suddenly remembered that the deadline was in 18 minutes. I knew I wasn't going to be able to come back, so I had to EDIT in a snap decision. Since I was most suspicious at Eomer at that point, I tagged him for it. Then I went and may or may not have failed a long and arduous physics test. I simply assumed that a few more of our many villagers would show up and vote, since there was such a wonderful twenty minute window of opportunity.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Maybe the reason that the phantom wasn't targeted (assuming he's not a wolf, of course) is that he said that he expected to be killed soon and they weren't going to give him credibility.

Yes, the same thought crossed my mind. Although, its still early days and I think he'll show his true colours soon enough.

Eomer, you're thoughts on the possible accidental lynching of our seer are interesting. No, we don't need the seer, par se, but he / she's a useful tool (yes, I've read the rules a little more now ) I will be suspicious of anyone who would try to lynch someone with seer like qualities so early on in the game....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Um, Hookbill, you've completely lost me. I have no idea what you are talking about.

Dancing spawn? Hmm, I'm intrigued as to why her name has been brought up as a suspect. I'm looking keenly at phantom and Saurreg as two of our wolves at the moment.

[Esgallhugwen]

Alas, I am gone for a day and look what has befallen our quiet village! My poor Grandmother's house (located in a distant village) nearly decided to take a swim in the flooded Longbow. I had travelled there to ensure she was indeed safe, I also needed supplies for my candles.

I've thought up a wonderful idea for you Lalaith , scented candles. Lavender would be wonderful for soothing those restless little charges of yours, and the glow of the flame would act as a 'night light' to scare the shadows away. What do you think?

But anyway, I must admit I was slightly taken aback that the Phantom had voted for me, but then again I couldn't make it for the first Day so I suppose his decision will not bode ill with me. It was a 50/50 chance between Anguirel and myself, I can't really hold anything against him.

But Kath! That's horrible and what poor luck we've been given on the first day, our Ranger being taken from us not by the claws of wolves but by our own panicked confusion. I've also read everyone elses ideas, and then Azaelia was slaughtered. Why would they go after her, she was quiet enough, and didn't really speak out against anybody.

I must go through my thoughts again before I come to a decision about who is most suspicious.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Here are my thoughts on the hidden wolves:

the phantom offers his plan to lynch an innocent villager who does not possess 'special powers'. He does not offer himself. There's a slight chance that he is a self-serving hypocrite who thinks that he can be the one exception out of the ordinary villagers, but that's probably only a slight chance.

He is basically coming out into the open, right at the start of the game, and telling everyone that he is a gifted villager or a werewolf.

If the werewolves honestly didn't pick that up then I'm sorry for being so damn sensible in public, and they will kill him tonite anyway. But it's not my fault; the phantom himself put out this thinly veiled message.

Why didn't the werewolves kill the phantom? It's quite possible that they put little thought into their selection. It's quite possible that they just overlooked the phantom's claim and decided to keep him alive as a useful and troublemaking loudmouth.

However, it's also quite possible that the phantom himself is one of the furry fiends.

(I realise that if you take my advice we will probably end up lynching a Seer-phantom. Well, we have little else to go on. If that happens then by all means, lynch me for being so pathetically wrong.)

Saurreg offered a little "O, well done old boy! It's nice to see someone thinking about the good of the village, even though the plan itself isn't perfect." Clearly, the werewolf's way of protecting his ally yet keeping him at arm's length.

It fits together. (And yes, I am aware that just about every theory 'fits together' and that coherentism is a rubbish theory of truth.)

But there you have my two suspects: the phantom and Saurreg.

If yesterday was anything to go by, don't listen to me. But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him. So we won't actually lose anything (except, perhaps, the phantom's occasional jovial nature! )

[the phantom]

I've been gone for a bit so I'm going to go back and respond to everything that has happened since I have been gone.

But anyway, I must admit I was slightly taken aback that the Phantom had voted for me, but then again I couldn't make it for the first Day so I suppose his decision will not bode ill with me. It was a 50/50 chance between Anguirel and myself, I can't really hold anything against him.

Thanks for understanding, Esgal.

I think that the most important thing is to figure out why the wolves picked Azaelia last night. I had my thoughts on who the various gifted villagers might have been and Azaelia wasn't on the list.

Here, Celuien makes the same observation that I made earlier. Why in the world did the wolves kill Azalia? I haven't spotted a good reason so far- not a good enough reason for the wolves to have lynched her over someone who was possibly the seer.

And why did Saurreg, knowing that three villagers stood to die, therefore think it was ok for him not to vote?

what made Saurreg say this: "I don't think I need even to vote today."

Saurreg's behaviour at the end of the last day was odd.

The more I think about it, the more suspicious I am of Saurreg. It doesn't make sense for an innocent not to vote once the tie was in place. Reading his post again, it looks like he expected not three but five villagers to die since we didn't know that Anguirel and Esgallhugwen had given notice of their absence yet.

Well, well- it seems that Saurreg is the flavor of the day. But I don't believe he is as suspicious as you are making him out to be.

The way I see it, only four votes had been cast and he assumed that there were more on the way, and that a decision would be made without his vote. I mean- is there anyone who thought that voter turnout would be as low as it was? I doubt it.

It is possible that the people he suspected the most already had a vote against them, and instead of casting a vote for one of them he wanted to leave them tied and then wait and see if anyone tried to come rescue them.

Plus, there were others who made an appearance but did not cast a vote. Many others. I don't really see anything within Saurreg's posts to place him as a suspect above all the others who sat on their votes, nor above those who did vote.

At this point, I might like to lynch Anguirel simply because he hasn't shown up.

As far as people who have been around, my eye is on Eomer.

Eomer, when speaking of why the wolves killed who they killed, said this-

No loudmouth would be killed

And yet, a couple lines later he said this-

I am much more interested in why the wolves didn't go after the phantom.

First he says that wolves would not kill a loudmouth (I am a loudmouth), and then he wonders why I wasn't killed. That seems very odd to me. Is he trying to give a reason for why he wasn't killed (because he is a loudmouth) but somehow not extend to me the same excuse he is using for himself.

Very suspicious.

And actually, I thought that I stood a good chance of getting killed last night. As I plainly said yesterday, I was trying my best to be a thorn in the wolves' side. I was hoping that they would perhaps try to kill me and the ranger would guard me and thus ruin their night. Once we lost our ranger I was expecting to be killed (well, I thought it likely anyway).

The way I saw it, the main reason for the wolves not to kill me would be if they were going to try and set me up the next day, which Eomer appears to be doing.

Once again, I am suspicous of him.

Either the wolves are not smart at all, or the phantom is one of them.

Oh really, Eomer?

Even if I was a wolf, that would not make their selection of Azalia smart.

The best defense I can offer as to why I am not a wolf- I would have made a much better kill last night.

Anyone who knows me well knows that to be true.

And don't even say it was some sort of trick. It is not advantageous for a wolf to pass on an opportunity to kill the seer simply to attempt some sort of trick which may or may not work.

There is no way that I would've killed Azalia and you know it.

I'm looking keenly at phantom and Saurreg as two of our wolves at the moment.

Really? I don't believe you.

I believe that you think Saurreg and I are the two sheriffs and you are hoping to kill one of us during the day and one tonight.

You were on my short list of possible seers, but you are not on it anymore since you are going after me and I am not a wolf.

EDIT: just saw Eomer's last post

He is basically coming out into the open, right at the start of the game, and telling everyone that he is a gifted villager or a werewolf.

That was one of the points of what I did. I am not the seer, but if I could make the wolves suspect me and go after me at night then that would ensure that the seer was not killed that night. I was doing my duty as a villager- protecting my seer.

But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him.

Clever, Eomer. You are painting this as a "we might as well" sort of situation.

I think that we should lynch you instead.

You have done exactly what I figured the wolves would do today if they left me alive- try and set me up.

[littlemanpoet]

Frustrated. Thus I dispense with any (intentional) doggerel.

I could have set my alarm extra early in order to have more than the mere 5 minutes before 6 am EDT to place in a hurried vote, but didn't want to make a rush judgment that I would regret later. I'm not allowed to play games while I draw and quarter my carcases, so I had to wait until I could get away for lunch. By then the vote was over and I "spoke up" as soon as I could - I'm sorry that it was officially "night".

I do not at all like the fact that the last few voting hours of both days are turning out to be in the morning while I have to be at the shop. Exceedingly frustrating.

Will post more when I get a chance. Supper's on.

[Lalaith]

I've realised (not having had much experience with werewolves before) that there is much to learn. For example, how great a part of one's thoughts should one share? There is the need to band together the innocents, but how to do this without alerting the wolves?
Anyway, I still think honesty is the best policy so here are two thoughts of mine.

1. The Werewolf Slaying
Azaelia was probably killed, as Kath was, more or less at random. The fact that the wolves got the hunter was a lucky strike. BUT I believe that the wolves picked their victim out of the non-voters. Voters leave a trail, clues to something or other, while non-voters are a tabula rasa.
The other thought I had regarding the slaying was that Azaelia was, along with Feanor and myself, the most vocal opponent of phantom's volunteer plan. However, unlike Feanor and myself, Azaelia failed to vote. I am not convinced that this is significant, however.

2. Yesterday's Vote
From yesterday's events, the evidence points to Eomer probably NOT being a werewolf. Werewolves are allies. If he were a werewolf he would not have had to save himself, one of the other werewolves could simply have stepped in and voted for one of the other nominees. This would not have drawn suspicion to Eomer, because there were three other nominees also saved.

There are however three reasons I can think of why Eomer would have had to vote to save himself and yet still be a werewolf:
a. Because the other two werewolves weren't around. I am slightly suspicious that Eomer waited around until the last minutes to save himself, as if he were waiting for someone else to do it. (Mind you, this would also work if he were a Shirriff and the other Shirriff wasn't around)
b. Because ALL THREE werewolves were, by chance, nominated. So one of them had to step in to stop the slaughter.
c. Because two of the three werewolves were nominated and the third wasn't around.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wow phantom, you're really not gonna like that last post I made.....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

the phantom brings up an excellent point and I am very glad he has. It allows me to give an explanation of my seemingly contradictory quotes.

- I did say that the werewolves would not kill a loudmouth.

- Then I did wonder why they hadn't killed the phantom (a loudmouth).

There is a reason for this.

In between making those comments, I considered the phantom's plan in greater depth.

Originally I had thought that he was certainly safe from the wolves just because he was a loudmouth, prone to cause trouble and confusion among the innocent villagers.

But then, I realised the meaning of his lack of volunteering for his plan, thus suggesting that he is gifted or a werewolf. Which begs the question, why was he not killed by the werewolves if he is gifted.

I realise I was not especially quick to grasp this myself but hey! I'm no werewolf, I don't have to carefully consider which villager to feast upon!



EDIT TO ADD: I was quick to reply to that query, phantom. Not so your follow-up. I am off to bed. Don't consider apparent hesitation to be suspicious, please.

[the phantom]

Lalaith, you are doing some good thinking but you haven't quite got it figured out.

If he were a werewolf he would not have had to save himself, one of the other werewolves could simply have stepped in and voted for one of the other nominees. This would not have drawn suspicion to Eomer, because there were three other nominees also saved.

That is completely wrong.

It would've been far more suspicious for someone else to step in and save Eomer than it was for Eomer to save himself- because that is what an innocent would do. It is always excusable for someone to cast a vote to save their life. We never hold that against someone because they literally have no choice, therefore Eomer was the perfect person to save Eomer.

But then, I realised the meaning of his lack of volunteering for his plan, thus suggesting that he is gifted or a werewolf. Which begs the question, why was he not killed by the werewolves if he is gifted.

That is the question I asked at the beginning of the day. Azalia was extremely unlikely to be gifted, so why in the world was she killed?

And even if the wolves thought that I was a plain villager trying to trick them into killing me as the seer, there were much better choices besides Azalia.

The only reasons I can think of to kill Azalia are-
1) The werewolves aren't doing much thinking
2) Killing someone who was obviously not gifted would be a sure way to get everyone to wonder why no one who appeared to be gifted was killed. Who looks the most likely to be gifted? Me.

So it seems likely that the reason Azalia was killed was because the wolves thought that they could easily shift suspicion to me the next day.

Where as if they had killed me during the night- who would be their lynching suspect for today?

No one else is as easy a target as I am.

So there you have it.

Azalia was killed in order to get me lynched and Eomer is in the process of carrying out the plan as we speak.

[Lalaith]

No phantom, I don't think you understand my point. I had already thought of the "what would an innocent do" thing.
Let us say Eomer is a werewolf, and lmp is another werewolf. Lmp steps in when the votes stand at Eomer 1, Kath 1, Esg 1, Oddwen 1, Saurreg 1. He posts "OMG, unless I do something four villagers will die. Ok, I'll vote for, um, Kath." How is that suspicious? And even if it is, how do we know if it is Esg, Oddwen, Saurreg or Eomer he is trying to save?

I got your point, however, about a clever werewolf thinking that a death of one of his allies would be worth it, as it was taking out four villagers as well. So it is as you said possible that one of the other werewolves had already been nominated too.

I've thought of another reason why werewolf-Eomer might have to save himself: if the other werewolves had already done their nominating when he was nominated. That basically means phantom and Celuinen (as I know I'm not a werewolf.)
However while it is perhaps possible that either phantom OR Eomer are werewolves, I don't think they both are. Phantom and Feanor, possibly (there's a bit too much Beatrice and Benedick in their rowing)

[Esgallhugwen]

Hm, so it seems Saurreg, Eomer and the Phantom, have most suspicion laid upon them. At least the way I've been reading.

At first I didn't quite agree with the Phantom's first plan, perhaps making him slightly suspicious due to the gravity of killing some of our own, but today I'm agreeing with his thoughts for the most part. But I can't be highly suspicious of Eomer either. Everyone wants to be able to save their own skins, he was only doing what is in his human nature, and how can we truly hold that against him?

But why would he say the werewolves will kill the Phantom tonight? Again he draws suspicion to himself, when he could have said they may or might kill him. Perhaps I'm looking to deeply into his words.

Saurreg seems to be violent but that may well be due to his occupation as a Furrier.... I suppose. He did seem to be looking forward to Anguirel and myself being lynched due to our absence, which I'm glad was not the case, RL can get in the way at the horrible times.

[Lalaith]

Thank you for your kind offer of candles, Esgalhugwen, it is good that someone is thinking of the children at this terrible time.
But where is Anguirel?

[the phantom]

I suppose I understand your point, Lalaith, but I think a second wolf stepping in to save Eomer would have been worse for the wolves because if that second wolf ever gets lynched then we would know he was protecting someone on day one.

And seeing as there were many people tied, it would have been likely that he was protecting two someones, since one single wolf would be glad to die if he can take five or six people with him.

I believe that Eomer was the logical choice to save himself.

Phantom and Feanor, possibly (there's a bit too much Beatrice and Benedick in their rowing)

Well, all I can say to that is Fea and I act like that all the time, even when we're not in this werewolf-plagued town. It's a combination of competitiveness, love of arguing, and extreme chemical and biological attraction.

I'm agreeing with his thoughts for the most part. But I can't be highly suspicious of Eomer either.

Why not? I think my case I've made is pretty strong. I believe that he killed Azalia because he thought he could set me up today, and the reason he is going after Saurreg as well is because he thinks we are sheriffs.

Read my last couple of posts again.

[Esgallhugwen]

Please read my above post again Phantom I had to make an edit and in that time you had already posted. I do believe you have some very solid evidence and therefore will not be needing to read your posts again.

Perhaps I'm simply too merciful, and want to give others as much chance as they can get. On the other hand being merciful when blood crazed hairy demons are prowling about won't save me from their foaming maws. And I don't want to pick you simply because you chose me by chance. That would be foolish, especially if you happen to be one of our remaining gifted.

[Esgallhugwen]

Thank you for your kind offer of candles, Esgalhugwen, it is good that someone is thinking of the children at this terrible time.
But where is Anguirel?

Your welcome Lalaith, someone has to think of the children, pray that they survive this.

And good point, what has befallen Anguirel? I hope he has not been trapped in RL again.

[the phantom]

what has befallen Anguirel?

I am somewhat concerned about him too, but I'm going to leave him (and others) alone for a while and wait for more people to post their thoughts on my theory about Eomer being a wolf and killing Azalia in order to set me up today.

Speak up, villagers. Doesn't my idea (found here and here) make sense- or at least as much sense as anything else we have?

[Esgallhugwen]

I agree with Phantom, please start to speak up fellow villagers. I don't want to be rushed to vote but I have to go soon and I am worried I won't be able to make it back in time to vote. I want to hear what the others can bring to the discussion.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, all I can say to that is Fea and I act like that all the time, even when we're not in this werewolf-plagued town. It's a combination of competitiveness, love of arguing, and extreme chemical and biological attraction.

Thanks a lot, jerk. I just choked on my white chocolate Reese's peanut butter cups (or their canonical equivalent) because that last part of your explanation made me laugh so hard.

Anyhow... There's nothing more clarifying than taking a few steps back (or, more accurately, spending a few hours out of town) to see who's accusing who, and who's alliances changed over night.

Phantom, I want to lynch you. I haven't figured out if the reason I suspect you so much is because after your condescending "I wouldn't expect you to understand" type insults yesterday, not to mention your undying superiority complex, I've been looking for reasons to think you're guilty. Which is why I'm not going to vote for you. Again. I don't want sheer annoyance with your self-preservation to cloud my vote. Not that it isn't endearing and all, but you know... still annoying.

And guys, you're looking at the phantom's non-death or potential death all wrong. Who argued most against him yesterday? I did. Because he's got a sketchy idea. So if the werewolves really wanted to frame somebody by killing our phantasmic buddy, they'd slaughter him brutally in order to make me look guilty. If he's a werewolf, he'd know that he could get me by sacrificing himself to the masses. See, the idea is that he's put forth the idea that either he's a wolf or a gifted villager. Since the wolves didn't kill him last night, it means that either he's a wolf, or that the wolves want us to think he is, and save themselves the trouble by letting us deal with him. I'm pretty much thinking the latter right now, but my thoughts change a lot.

The fact that the wolves got the hunter was a lucky strike.

The wolves didn't get the hunter. Heck, the villagers didn't even get the hunter. We accidentally killed the Ranger. There's a big difference.

The other thought I had regarding the slaying was that Azaelia was, along with Feanor and myself, the most vocal opponent of phantom's volunteer plan. However, unlike Feanor and myself, Azaelia failed to vote

Firefoot was pretty vocal against the phantom also. Just to point out.

Now... I have a big problem. I have places to see, things to go, and people to... wait a minute... Strike that, reverse it. My problem is that I cannot stay online all that much longer, and the chances of me getting online tomorrow are not high, since I'll be away from home from 8:00 AM 'til 9:00 PM EST, if I even make it home at all. So I have to vote... right now.

Since I haven't distrusted Eomer today as much as I've distrusted the phantom, and I've already said I'm not voting against the phantom today... it means that I have to pick somebody else. It was pointed out that my accusation of Spawn was random. It wasn't. It just seemed that way because I hadn't mentioned it before, and when I finally did, I didn't bother to share with you why I was suspicious. Here's why: yesterday when I "left to go paint", she hadn't posted very often. Thrice, to be exact. She made comments on what was going on, and she made certain that she was actually there, but at the same time, she was not contributing personal opinions. That makes me nervous. I'm more comfortable around loudmouths, because even if they're hiding over half of what they're thinking, they're still saying enough to potentially damn themselves. If that's not a sign of innocence, I don't know what is, since wolves like to stay out of the hangman's noose, if you'll pardon the pun.

So... my vote... since I'm long-windedly procrastinating. Eeny meeny miny... no... I can't do that. That's just not fair. Not Eomer, because I don't suspect him, even though I've spent the better part of two days harassing him. I just wanted to see him squirm. Not the phantom, because I don't want to vote for him for the wrong reasons. That leaves me to contemplate my suspects from yesterday, because today nobody is doing anything sketchy. I don't much suspect Dancing Spawn right now, though I don't know why I shouldn't. Maybe it's because I've been so busy agonizing over those other two loudmouths.

Regretfully... I must vote, by default, for the other person on my day one suspect list. ++LITTLEMANPOET, I'm terribly sorry if you're innocent, but since I've cancelled out the other three... You know... maybe I should just volunteer myself to be lynched. It would mean less thinking.

[Firefoot]

Hm, there's been a lot of accusations flying. I am unconvinced of the guilt of both Eomer and phantom, though phantom is higher on my list than Eomer. Right now I am not inclined to believe that either are werewolves. As for Saurreg, I'm still rather suspicious of him but he hasn't posted anything recently so there's not really anything more to go on there. I would like to hear what he has to say.

At this point, I think our wolves are more likely to be lurking in the background, offering up some "useful" comments; generally, just blending in (and they seem to be doing a pretty good job of it. I don't feel very suspicious of anyone). It doesn't make sense for a wolf to be a loudmouth.

For the werewolves, this is also why Azaelia made a good target. Her death leaves us no real indication of who the wolves are (except for phantom, but that feels more like a frame-up. That would be the worst thing for wolves to do would be to kill someone they brought especial attention to during the day - especially when there are so many to choose from).

I was hoping to clear my own mind by writing this, but no such luck, alas. I would really like to hear some more from Saurreg, Oddwen, Nilpaurion (too bad he lives in such a different time zone), dancing spawn, and Anguirel.

[the phantom]

For the werewolves, this is also why Azaelia made a good target. Her death leaves us no real indication of who the wolves are

But is that a good enough reason for the wolves to pass up a chance to kill the seer?

except for phantom, but that feels more like a frame-up

Yes, that is correct. Frankly, framing me is the best reason I see for killing her, and who is it going after me today? Eomer.

About the only way I'm going to vote for someone other than him is if someone offers a theory that seems more believable than mine.

I've seen finger pointing, and people saying "I'm suspicious of so-and-so", but I have yet to see very many people really get into the minds of the wolves and try to determine what they were hoping to accomplish by killing Azalia.

Surely they were trying to accomplish something?

Wolves kill-
1) Whoever they think is the seer.
2) Someone that will make a wolf look innocent.
3) Someone that will make an innocent look guilty.

We can rule out #1. No one would think she was the seer.

#3 would be what I'm talking about- the wolves killed her to try and set me up. Of course, there were about four or five people they could've killed to accomplish the same thing, meaning that they picked Azalia randomly from amongst a small group.

I haven't really looked at #2 so far today. Maybe I should.

In fact, I will right now.

I briefly suggested an Azalia-Fea combination, so killing Azalia could've been done to make Fea look innocent.

Firefoot, in post #93, grouped Kath, Azalia, Saurreg, and Oddwen together.

Kath died yesterday, Azalia died last night, and Firefoot cast her vote for Saurreg and appears to be leaning that way once again.

If Saurreg gets lynched and is found to be innocent, that would mean three of Firefoot's group of four will have been proved innocent, and thus would probably make people want to excuse the fourth person, Oddwen.

So, if the wolves killed Azalia in an attempt to make one of the wolves (or several) look innocent, then Oddwen, Firefoot, and Fea would be our likely wolves.

Logically it sounds pretty good, but I still think my idea is more likely, and Eomer killed Azalia to set me up.

Unless both ideas are true, and Eomer along with two of the other three (Firefoot, Oddwen, or Fea) are werewolves.

But, of course, the chances of me identifying all three werewolves on day two is very slim.

[Saurreg]

Ah! Woe be unto me. It would appear that this poor innocent furrier is at the brunt of almost all accusations.

To my detractors I tell this to you; I am not a werewolf and you should all stop eyeing me. I did not vote in my last post before the lynching quite simply because I did not know that we had only a few minutes left, I thought we had two more hours to hear more arguments and detect any arguing and voting patterns. On my screen the time is now reflected as of typing is GMT 1252 am. So go figure...

The voter turn out yesterday was indeed very oddly low, reflecting the uncertainty of the majority of my fellow villagers on who is a werewolf. These are goodly folks who cannot bring themselves to simply vote on whim against their conscience. I also cannot, which is why I waited until it was too late.

Infact may I bring your attention onto this quote:

Also, I was sure I posted that absent villagers would not be lynched on DAY 1 as they wouldn't have the chance to tell fellow villagers that they wouldn't be there, but apparently it wasn't there when I checked the rules. Sorry about this, I'm editting it in (not that it matters now). Absentees will be lynched starting from the morrow.

That was the basis of my supposed "glee" and bloodthirst when I posted in regards to Anguirel and Esgallhugwen. I merely stated what the GM has confessed as misfacts.

Firefoot has indeed pointed out that my last post was odd. That's true. But pray tell if I were a werewolf, why would I make myself such a prominent target? In any case you all can see that by the time voting ended - no one came forth and supported me or such. I was clearly on my own yesterday collaborating with no one whatsoever. So I thank you footie for your "endorsement"

Perhaps we should be looking closely at those who voted yesterday and rethinking the rationale behind their supposed reasons.

[Saurreg]

Firefoot lumped yours throughly with Kath, Willowbottom and Oddwen. Both Kath and Willowbottom are "coincidentally" no more and I am now the main suspect.

Is it just me? Or do my beady lil' eyes detect a pattern here? Oddwen, you'd better look out for yourself.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot cast her vote for Saurreg and appears to be leaning that way once again.

Do I? Actually, I'm not really leaning anywhere at the moment (or when I wrote that post). What I meant was that of the three people who seemed to be getting the most suspicion, I would choose Saurreg over phantom or Eomer. I honestly have no idea who I will be voting for, though, and am not leaning towards anyone (though there are some people I am leaning away from - notably Celuien, Hookbill, and probably Evisse and Lalaith).

phantom, based on what evidence we do have, your argument makes some sense (except it's not true, since I'm not a wolf ). I won't deny that two of the people on my list turned up innocent. But I will repeat: "That would be the worst thing for wolves to do would be to kill someone they brought especial attention to during the day - especially when there are so many to choose from." If I were a wolf, I would not have picked Azaelia, simply because I did bring attention to her as being on my suspicions list. As you've shown, killing Azaelia would give me the appearance of guilty - a contradiction of your #2: make a werewolf look innocent.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

Ah! Woe be unto me. It would appear that this poor innocent furrier is at the brunt of almost all accusations.

To my detractors I tell this to you; I am not a werewolf and you should all stop eyeing me. I did not vote in my last post before the lynching quite simply because I did not know that we had only a few minutes left, I thought we had two more hours to hear more arguments and detect any arguing and voting patterns. On my screen the time is now reflected as of typing is GMT 1252 am. So go figure...

Fair enough. There was a good bit of confusion yesterday with respect to time zones. As an aside for everyone, this site might prove useful.

Originally Posted by Saurreg

That was the basis of my supposed "glee" and bloodthirst when I posted in regards to Anguirel and Esgallhugwen. I merely stated what the GM has confessed as misfacts.

I'm still a little bit uneasy about this. I realize that you were just restating the misinformation we had, but given the huge number of potentially dead villagers we could have had yesterday if this scenario had been in effect and a tie had been reached, I would have thought it incentive for a vote. Even if a vote was just to break the tie and not completely based on a suspicion. Better two automatic lynchings and only one voted lynching than a three way tie and the two rule-breaking deaths.

Originally Posted by Saurreg

Firefoot has indeed pointed out that my last post was odd. That's true. But pray tell if I were a werewolf, why would I make myself such a prominent target? In any case you all can see that by the time voting ended - no one came forth and supported me or such. I was clearly on my own yesterday collaborating with no one whatsoever. So I thank you footie for your "endorsement"

True, it wouldn't be the smartest move for a wolf. But it's also not to the wolves advantage to obviously look like they're working together.

Originally Posted by Saurreg

Perhaps we should be looking closely at those who voted yesterday and rethinking the rationale behind their supposed reasons.

Agreed. And I will be doing so before the vote.

The phantom's reasoning certainly has merit. I still can't quite convince myself of Eomer's guilt. But if Saurreg dies and turns out to be innocent, I'll have to reconsider my reasoning and look in his direction.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All this theories of yours are flawed. You know why?

I am a Werewolf.

You see, we killed Azaelia because she was second on the alphabetical list of villagers. Anyone who's second on any list is scary. Add to that the fact that our ultimate plan is to find the cursed villager, who is said to bring balance to this game (i.e., there will be more of us). The cursed villager is probably not gifted, so we kill the silent ones.

Then there's this added advantage--we could put blame on the phantom, who could shift blame to Eomer. Because of this confusion, they'll both die. Muahahahaha!

Having said that, lynch me. Now.

Post-traumatic Possum. We intend to kill the gifted villagers through lynching, though. They taste bad. (Sorry to any gifted villagers there.)

[littlemanpoet]

At least this time is appears that I will get a chance to vote quite late (unless a major disaster occurs at the shop), so I will probably hold off until then ... unless some werewolf mistakenly rears its ugly head by some mis-speech.

Being a newcomer to such turmoil as we have in this (formerly) fine village, I'm having a hard time knowing which end's up, so thanks, Firefoot, for the wonderful list. I hope that helps clarify things for me. I am understandably distressed to be voted for! And why? Mere suspicion? What did I do? What did I say? Ah, yes. I picked on Eomer as someone who made a Freudian slip, and I wouldn't let go. Now, did I not let go as some kind of werewolfish ploy? No. You see, I do put quite a bit of credence in the mistaken word, the 'oopses' in posting. Maybe that's too intuitional of me, but hey, that's me. Or did I not let go because it was at that time the only evidence I could see anywhere, however slim? The latter.

Eomer's post defending himself made me think that I had been wrong. I became convinced that Eomer was nothing more than a bad liar, trying to point at Lalaith to try and flush out a werewolf or three. At least, that was what I thought until I read the rather enlightening thoughts of a few others of you in regards to Eomer. I am frankly impressed with the phantom's erudition. He seems to know how these things go, and thus must be well read, and has an excellent grasp for strategy. I'd say that's gonna help, and I'm really worried that the werewolves are going to off him.

The problem I'm having is that the suspicions and vote that have already come out could be werewolves trying to influence the rest of us. That drives me nuts. For that reason, those suspicions and votes must be studied carefully or else we make yet another disastrous mistake.

Lalaith (voted for Kath) is astute, has a large vocabulary (which means what, LMP?), and has gotten into the game of double think. This merely means that she has a lot of noodles upstairs. She has bemoaned her own vote, but that's just good form. She has wondered about the phantom's brashness, as in why would one be so brash, unless one were a werewolf, but then did some double think and left that in a muddle.

Eomer (voted for Kath) accused Lalaith as a ploy, then voted for Kath to save his own skin. Smart. I still question if a werewolf could hold himself back from letting four or five villagers all get lynched at once? That's my main reason for thinking Eomer might be innocent. But why is he getting all suspicious about the phantom, whom I find it hard to suspect?

the phantom (voted for Esga) is looking more like an innocent all the time, despite Eomer's assertions to the contrary. While true that his morality seems to veer towards the more pragmatic, it could be argued that that is precisely what we need. So I tend to think that he is probably an innocent working to his strengths to help the rest of us "eliminate the distractors", as they say in those anachronistic detective novels (which don't exist yet but that's too bad).

Celuien (voted for Oddwen) seems (so far) pretty straight up analytical. Hard to know what to think of that. I don't think her suspicion of Oddwen is any more sure than she seems to have thought.

Feanor's (voted for Eomer) vote for me has really got me wondering. I know I'm innocent, and that obviously makes me suspect her. At first she sounded so concerned for the good of the village, and maybe her vote for me is just a (WRONG) shot in the dark, but maybe it's part of some twisted, evil plan. Wish I could be sure.

Firefoot (voted for Saurreg) does try to be helpful. Which doesn't really say much either way.

Did not vote:

Anguirel - (RL activities kept him away all day) Well, our mod explained this one, so he remains a mystery.

dancing spawn - (was confused about voting deadline) asks for reason and less fighting and liked the phantom's plan. Or at least says she did.

Esga (RL activities kept her away all day) had the same situation as Anguirel, so she also remains a mystery.

Evisse - (confused about voting deadline) seems innocent to me.

Hookbill - (missed voting due to power cut) isn't saying much one way or the other. A mystery.

littlemanpoet ( missed voting) is not a werewolf. Plain and simple. Being new to this kind of thing, I'm liable to make some stupid mistakes in reasoning from time to time, but am quite educable. And confusable.

Nilpaurion is a mystery.

Oddwen's question about using the phantom's plan later in the game seemed rather harmless to me.

Saurreg - (left in the middle of voting without voting) does seem to lend himself to suspicion. But who's to say?

Two thoughts about the werewolves.

First. It has been suggested that they're stupid. What werewolves would seem stupid? One option would be those who haven't been involved in this kind of thing before, which I realize lumps me in with them, but that's one thing I can think of, and I know I'm not a werewolf. Or they have someone who is a master strategist leading the way. Um, who amongst us fills the bill? Whereas it's true that the phantom fits that bill, I still find it hard to imagine that he is playing the double game. Eomer seems pretty talented that way too. So do Celuien and Lalaith.

Second. Just a suggestion. Wouldn't the Seer be more effective if still alive toward the end of the game when the chances of dreaming of a werewolf are a better odds? Wouldn't it be therefore better if the Seer remained silent early? Granted, such a strategy runs the risk of the Seer being killed accidentally either by village lynchers along the way, or the werewolves, but might it not help us in the long run if the Seer kept quiet about his/her dreams until late in the game? Maybe I'm all wet, but I maybe this might help us win in the end.

I'm bushed. Dragging. That was a lot of work. So who are my primary suspects? Um, one more read over what I've written a sec.....: I guess my top suspects are Eomer, Saurreg, and dancing spawn. Sorry if I'm wrong.

EDIT: I just read Nilpaurion's latest gem of a post. What are we to make of that? Why would anybody say "I'm a werewolf, lynch me"? To cause greater confusion? Nil, you've succeeded. My first thought is Nil's just playing with all of us, and could not possibly be a werewolf, because a real werewolf wouldn't try to get himself offed. On the other hand, why would an innocent claim to be a werewolf and risk a lynching? Is it because this person agrees with the phantom and is virtually volunteering? Possibly. Or is this the cursed villager who really would rather be a werewolf? The last thing we want to do is add to the werewolf population. At any rate, my analysis is that Nil is not a werewolf but may want to become one(?).

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Celuien

True, it wouldn't be the smartest move for a wolf. But it's also not to the wolves advantage to obviously look like they're working together.

Exactly. But even if the those furry snarling vermins were to have "acted" surely they would not have overdone it would they? Our enemies are very resourceful and cunning. This I'll give them.

The phantom's reasoning certainly has merit. I still can't quite convince myself of Eomer's guilt. But if Saurreg dies and turns out to be innocent, I'll have to reconsider my reasoning and look in his direction.

Ole Sauggy, the beloved furrier need not die today if everyone takes a good close look at all the arguments and reasoning posted so far.

Although Firefoot voted for Saurreg yesterday, Azaelia and Kath were both on her suspect list, and both proven innocent. It could be that either Oddwen or Saurreg (or both) is a werewolf and that Azaelia was chosen to discredit that list. They could also be attempting to cast suspicion on Firefoot by showing that two of her four suspects were innocents. Of course, accusing an innocent on the first day doesn't mean much. I'm just trying to find some logic in Azaelia's death. I don't think she accused anyone yesterday, but I will check again to be sure.

Two dead out of a list of four - that's one out of two. I think this is reason enough already to suspect a pattern is in play here. Let's have a deal Celuien; since the odds are stacked against me and should my life be forfeited today, promise me you will look eye Firefoot carefully, especially if she votes for me again.

Someone else has already pointed out that footie voted for me the last round and am leaning towards me again. She herself admitted that she only voted for me because they was no obvious target at all- a stab in the dark if you like and all because of my post last night (which I have explained myself). Now even before I have posted for this round, she has already chosen to make me her target. I do not know why she would do so even though many of the villagers have not even posted yet. Sounds pretty vindictive to me.

Another person to look out for is Eomer - of all the accused he could pick, he picked innocent Kath. Now he is looking out for me and The phantom. I believe he is only using the latter as a screen and his target is yours truly also. Think about it, if Phantom and I were werewolves in cahoots, why would we have been so obvious?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If you took my post above seriously, don't.

phantom, how sure are we that you are not using Eomer's words to bounce the blame? How sure are we that you are not doing what you said he is doing--making an innocent look guilty? Hmm?

But don't worry. You're relatively low on my wolf-metre--relatively, because most of you folks look canine to me:

• Anguirel is still not here. If he does show up on the last minute toDAY, I'll starts some serious chin-scratching and humming.
  
  
• Celuien, spawn, Esgallhugwen, Evisse, Firefoot, Lalaith and Hookbill seem to have succeeded in turning the focus away from themselves. Hmmm . . .
  
  
• Eomer of the Rohirrim, Saurreg, and the phantom are obvious suspects, and I trust the reasoning why they are. But one never knows if they are just the victims of the real wolves's plot.
  
  
• Feanor of the Peredhil is attracts too much attention for a wolf, although if I were a wolf, that's one of the best ways to hide myself.
  
  
• littlemanpoet is wonderfully poetic. Which doesn't make him not a werewolf.
  
  
• Nilpaurion Felagund. Obviously a wolf. Lynch him.
  
  
• Oddwen has posted but once yesterDAY. This noncommital of hers may imply something . . .

Now, I have to vote. 1700GMT is 0100PST. (Thanks for the concern, Firefoot. ) Now, since I really have no-one who looks more suspicious than the others, I have to choose one who is just . . . odd.

++ODDWEN

[the phantom]

To my detractors I tell this to you; I am not a werewolf and you should all stop eyeing me. I did not vote in my last post before the lynching quite simply because I did not know that we had only a few minutes left, I thought we had two more hours to hear more arguments and detect any arguing and voting patterns. On my screen the time is now reflected as of typing is GMT 1252 am. So go figure...

After seeing this, I would suggest leaving Saurreg alone for the time being.

Not voting is the main reason we have to accuse Saurreg, but there were TEN other people who did not vote, so this hardly sets him apart.

Wouldn't you prefer to lynch someone who has more solid evidence against them (in the way of theories and such)?

phantom, based on what evidence we do have, your argument makes some sense (except it's not true, since I'm not a wolf

Well, my theory left room for you not to be a wolf since I named four people (Eomer, Oddwen, Feanor, and you).

Remember earlier today when I said this-

If Eomer is a wolf, then it is very likely that either Esgal, Oddwen, or Saurreg is also a wolf (I suspect Esgal the most of these three, mainly because I haven't heard from her). You see, Eomer popped in at the end to break a five-way tie. Even though his name was one of the names on the list, a smart wolf would have voted for a sixth person and taken five innocents with them to the grave. Five innocents is too juicy a prize to pass up. The only way a wolf would break a five-way tie is if there was another wolf besides himself on the list, because killing four innocents is not worth the price of two out of three wolves.

That reasoning would agree with my theory of Oddwen being a wolf. It seems to me that Eomer's death might be the most useful in determining other wolves. What do you think?

Good thoughts, lmp. I'd like to answer a couple of questions you asked.

Second. Just a suggestion. Wouldn't the Seer be more effective if still alive toward the end of the game when the chances of dreaming of a werewolf are a better odds?

Yes.

Wouldn't it be therefore better if the Seer remained silent early?

Not necessarily.

If the seer is quiet and then gets killed, there is no way of knowing what dreams the seer had. And seer dreams are the most valuable thing that a village can possibly be given.

Because of that, staying quiet is a huge risk.

It will probably keep the wolves off the seer's back at night since they won't suspect him/her to be the seer, but it might get the seer lynched during the day.

If the seer decides to be quiet, then the seer would definitely want to keep a close eye on things particularly at the end of the day and if it looks like his/her life is going to be ended by the votes of the village, he/she should immediately divulge all of the information in his/her possesion.

So- being quiet keeps the seer safe from the wolves, but it could be disasterous if the seer is killed without leaving us any clues.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Saurreg offered a little "O, well done old boy! It's nice to see someone thinking about the good of the village, even though the plan itself isn't perfect." Clearly, the werewolf's way of protecting his ally yet keeping him at arm's length.

It fits together. (And yes, I am aware that just about every theory 'fits together' and that coherentism is a rubbish theory of truth.)

But there you have my two suspects: the phantom and Saurreg.

If yesterday was anything to go by, don't listen to me. But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him. So we won't actually lose anything (except, perhaps, the phantom's occasional jovial nature! )

Allow this uncouth furrier to laugh in your face. HAHAHAHHAHA!!!

Everybody could see for miles that The Phantom and I complimented one another and you were the only one naive enough to use this a the basis of your rationale.

Of course no one would listen to you now that you have been cast a suspect also.

"So we won't actually lose anything" That's a very careless and haughty joke to make doncha think - belittling the importance of lynching an innocent individual? Are you sure you're not a werewolf?

We have so many villagers in this round and you have already set your sights on yours truly even without waiting for the others to post, you and Firefoot. What's to say the both of you aren't "complimenting" each other also.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

Two dead out of a list of four - that's one out of two. I think this is reason enough already to suspect a pattern is in play here. Let's have a deal Celuien; since the odds are stacked against me and should my life be forfeited today, promise me you will look eye Firefoot carefully, especially if she votes for me again.

Okay, that's a deal. I am currently much less suspicious of you.

LMP - my vote for Oddwen wasn't anything more than a guess prompted by her question, which could very well have been innocent. It was purely a shot in the dark on the first day. Although I am starting to wonder about her silence today, especially in light of the phantom's theories.

It's awfully late for me. I should take a nap in preparation for the upcoming events.

[Saurreg]

I thank you Celuien for your promise. But if you turn out to be a werewolf mastermind toying with me, may the bite of a thousand feas be upon you!

The more I read the more suspicious I am of Eomer and Firefoot. The druken sailor and vendor of rottened fruits have been the most direct in their accusations in this round - even before they got to read the posts of other villagers in this large village of ours. It would seem that they are either unwilling or unable to sit back, let the posts flow in and try to detect patterns and such. Without much solid evidence or sound analyse they have narrowed down their choice of victims to The Phantom and me in an amazingly short time.

I may not have a chance to do so later and so I cast my vote against ++Eomer of the Rohirrim with a suggestion that we drown him. Should I get my way this evening then I will turn my sights onto Firefoot.

In either case should I get lynched or murdered tonight, let this post be my last Testimonial statement and contribution to the village.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Phantom and Eomer seem to be the biggest contenders for werewolfhood at the momnet. I doubt that they both are, unless they are being incredibly clever... hum, it's going to be hard to cast a vote... *ponders* Sorry, but the phantom seems too overly suspicious to be a w-w. So, my vote goes to

++ Eomer.

Sorry, if you're innocent... But unless he’s been cleverer than I’ve given him credit for, you seem the more likely than phantom at the moment.

[Anguirel]

A dastardly crime has been perpetrated, villagers. To adminster justice, I am forced to circulate the land without roof nor stock above my weary head. I thus sleep alone, in the wild, unguarded, under my favourite blanket of tawny tartan. It is still often chilly, and I occasionally have a dram of whisky to keep myself warm.

I should have noticed that the whisky was slightly darker than usual as I glugged it down. I fell into a long, dark, sleep, troubled by flibbertigibbets and purple cockroaches, and the howling of some vast and terrible beast. All this, I fear, was caused by some noxious drug slipped in my whisky. There is someone in this village with something to hide...with murder to hide...who would rather not have the judge awake.

It was only thanks to the benevolence of a passing Elven healer that I recovered my senses. I borrowed a horse and rode hard back to the village gate, my heart filled with dread...and then it was that tidings of woe and of slaughter reached my aching ears.

I shall pass judgement soon. But first you must judge me, for a brehon's character must be unimpeachable. While I investigate the facts, listen to my tale and determine whether I deserve punishment or pity.

((Blasted internet connection...))

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Right. Just.....hold on a few moments, alright? This madness has to stop. I'll post again very soon. It may take me 10 minutes or whatever so just hold on if you feel the need to vote for me. Just take a deep breath....

[Evisse the Blue]

After having listened carefully to all of you, I am very confused but I'll assure everyone I won't miss voting this time. On my list of suspects are Eomer, Fea, Saurreg, phantom, Oddwen, Lalaith, Firefoot. *shrugs* well, that's my list. About half of the population.
I'm gonna wait before I cast my vote to give Eomer the chance to defend himself, he's earned the benefit of the doubt here.