Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Saurreg]

The influence of good judgement?

[littlemanpoet]

Time is slipping away. I have a chance to vote, and will do so although I have not been able to do more than scan the vote count so far. I will not vote for the phantom, as I think he's innocent, and we sure don't need a three-way lynching! Nor am I of a mind to allow a two-way lynching either. Therefore, since Oddwen is not on my suspect list but Eomer is, I cannot but do what my duty requires: ++ Eomer There. My vote is cast. I do hope we will have drowned a werewolf this time.

EDIT: Well shoot. dancing spawn beat me to it. Well, it wouldn't have changed a thing.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If my points are good then it is obvious that the phantom is a werewolf, will be killed by werewolves very soon, or will be lynched by suspicious villagers very soon.

*sighs*

I wish I could be more eloquent. But this looks like the end...

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Sorry Eomer, but that’s the way it goes. I'm still new to the game, so my judgement isn't really all that respectable. Rest in peace good Rohanian... of that’s the word...

[Anguirel]

Alas, it is so, I fear. Perfidious and insidious vermin of wolves. Ah, well, my dear buccaneer, come round to my camp beneath the elm trees and I'll help draft your will.

[Esgallhugwen]

I seriously can't believe that the phantom or Eomer are werewolves, and not even Saurreg seems to be that suspicious anymore. And Oddwen is only the village idiot.

C'mon folks I think we're going down the wrong path, and I wish I knew the right way but I don't. I'm gropping in the dark like the rest of you so I have no better choice but to pick ++ Oddwen

Sorry poor village fool if ye be not a wolf, I feel that Eomer and the phantom however loud mouthed they are hold more innocence. And picking someone who has said nothing will not help matters at all.

I fear we are doomed.

[Lalaith]

I may be completely wrong (as I was before, alas) but I do think Eomer is innocent, and perhaps also gifted. I don't suspect Oddwen, but I do think phantom is suspicious. There are two more people left to vote of which I am one. (Haven't got time to work out who the other one is!)
I would vote for phantom but that would make no difference so I will vote for ++Oddwen. However it looks like I am wasting my time, and probably my life, because if Eomer does turn out to be a werewolf I will look so extremely suspicious, what with my role in killing the Ranger, that I will be done in tomorrow anyway. Oh well.

[Lalaith]

My good candle-seller, so it was you that was wanting. Eomer is reprieved. I hope he deserves it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, this is my last goodbye. Many thanks to those who have shown faith in me. To the others, I don't really hold anything against you. But this is my advice to you when you see my corpse languishing in the icy depths.

Read my posts carefully. If you think about it, you will see that the phantom is an absolutely sensible candidate for lynching. You will not lose anything important and there is a good chance that he is a wolf.

Saurreg is just obviously a werewolf. He is callous and sneaky and his defences are shoddy.

Oh, and quiz Fea on her weird flip-flopping. I don't even pretend to understand her decisions. She might be a good choice for lynching, just to get her out of the way of rational judgment.

I am less suspicious of littlemanpoet, for what that's worth.

And Nilpaurion....*sniff*.....good luck with your quest, my friend!

Farewell.

[Saurreg]

Two for the price of one. Super...

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Esgallhugwen

I fear we are doomed.

I would like to give some heartening and inspirational speeches to rally your spirits. Instead, alas, economic pressures of demand must induce me to raise the cost of will-drafting from a dozen of eggs to a couple of braces of pheasant.

[the guy who be short]

Well, all votes are in so no more posts soon. Expect some death soon.

I'm incredibly sorry about messing up the times and causing so much confusion. I take all the blame, and it's most embarassing. In future, I will be sure to say BST rather than GMT.
If people are still confused, you can look at the time of my post. The next phase ends about 24 hours later.
If people are still confused after that, PM me with your location on the world map and I can post times in your local time too.

Sorry again.

[Lalaith]

I hope I'm not breaking rules by posting but I wanted to say that in my last minute panic I added up wrong, I thought Eomer had been saved but he hasn't. And I realise that I also need not have voted for poor Oddwen. Sorry again. Oh dear.

[the guy who be short]

The villagers had finally found some solidarity in their voting on the second Day of this terror – well, sort of. Two separate mobs developed, one surrounding Oddwen and the other Eomer of the Rohirrim in the village square.

“Who shall we get first? The idiot or the mariner?” somebody asked.

“I will die first,” Eomer and Oddwen replied simultaneously. They looked at one another sheepishly, for neither suspected the other. There was a short silence, and then, “the Lady may go first, if she so wills.”

Oddwen proffered herself to be slain, but the villagers weren’t quite sure what to do. They didn’t want to make another mistake… was the evidence sufficient? But the deed had to be done. A villager walked up to her, knife drawn, asking what she would like.

“I shall be serious for a moment. I want you to build a gallows, so that no more should suffer as I must now suffer. Consider this my dying wish.”

And saying so, she took the knife from his hand and slew herself. Her body collapsed to the ground with a dull thud. The villagers surrounded her, waiting for a transformation, breath drawn.

They breathed out, not through relief but through want of fresh air. The tenseness of the moment passed, and still nothing happened. It was evident that another innocent was dead.

The mob turned angrily on Eomer of the Rohirrim, snarling and little better than wolves themselves. Senselessly, they blamed him for Oddwen’s death.

“Ulmo shall be his judge!” they declared. “Take him to the river!”

Eomer informed them that he was quite capable of walking, and would take himself to the river if they would follow him. They perambulated to the nearby stream whence they drew their water; it was a tributary of the river Malduin that flowed into Teiglin that flowed into Sirion the Great and thence to the Sea. “So shall I come to Ulmo…” said the rapscallion, gazing sadly down the river, and in his death he looked both noble and fair.

“Bind his arms and his legs and throw him into the river! If he is guilty, then Ulmo shall reject him, and he shall float upon the water. Then we shall draw him out and kill him! If he is innocent, Ulmo shall demand of him a hug, and he shall be drawn to the river’s bed. There shall he drown and die a noble death.”

Eomer looked unconvinced. “Am I the only person who sees a flaw with that plan?” he asked. But they ignored him, and bound him, and cast him into the water. He splashed and fell deep into the running stream, and bounced on its bed. Forced to inhale the water, he asphyxiated.

“Ulmo wanted a hug from him… he is innocent!” the villagers said.

The body floated up again, driven by the force of the water.

“He is guilty!”

The body hugged the stream-bed once more. But his body had still not transformed, and it was now clear that he was innocent of all guilt, other than perhaps being a bit of a rogue.

“Alas!” Wailed the women, for Eomer was much loved before the coming of the werewolves. “Who could do such a horrible thing to such a handsome man?” His body drifted away to be received by the sea, bobbing up and down at intervals.

The villagers held a small meeting, decided that the current method of allowing guilt to be judged by the streams didn’t really work. By a vote of thirteen to none, it was removed from the village law-books, though unfortunately some foolish people took it up again several millennia later.

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.
Oddwen (Villager) - lynched with kitchen utensils on DAY 2.
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - lynched and drowned on DAY 2.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 10

It is now NIGHT 3. NIGHT will end tomorrow at 5:30pm BST, 1:30pm EST, 12:30pm CST, that is 24 hours from now (check time of post). NIGHT may end earlier if all NIGHT-time PMs are received before then.

Edit: Lalaith, I'm not going to eat you or anything, but in future could you please limit such posts to the next day? Giving that explanation wasn't really that necessary. Thanks.

[the guy who be short]

The villagers woke bright and early, eager to witness more morbid and gruesome killings. A quick scan seemed to show that the ego of the village square was half of what it should have been – the phantom was missing!

The villagers rushed to his home. The healer was dead, they knew, but they were curious anyway. They gathered in a small room where the phantom liked to make his potions, to find him stretched on the floor under his bench. A shattered vial was by his side, and his face showed peace rather than fear. It was clear that, hearing the wolves coming upon him, he had chosen to poison himself rather than die at their paws. Indeed, his body was unmolested by the werewolves, and this seemed to be the case.

The villagers looked crestfallen at the lack of blood and gore.

They looked around the phantom's home, to see if any secrets were hidden away. Forcing a dark cupboard, they found a well made set of drawers. They opened one of these, and stood gobsmacked. It contained file after file after file. What could be in them?

The villagers rifled through the papers, amazed to find documents concerning absolutely everything about them – their likes, their dislikes, all their little moves. It was clear the the phantom was a Shirriff, one of the Secret Police of King Orodreth who spied on his citizens to keep them orderly. (This is a little known story, actually. Orodreth was actually a fearsome dictator, who kept careful tabs on the doings of all his followers. His mass censorship managed to keep this out of the history books).

In the confusion, the villagers did not notice one of their members slip a small envelope from under a corner of carpet into their pocket.

Usually the people would have been thrilled to rid themselves of one of the Secret Police – but in these perilous times, it was most damaging…

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Saurreg

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.
Oddwen (Villager) - lynched with kitchen utensils on DAY 2.
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - lynched and drowned on DAY 2.
the phantom (Shirriff) - poisoned himself on NIGHT 3.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 9

It is now DAY. DAY will tomorrow in 24 hours at 6pm BST, 1pm EDT, 12:00 noon CDT, or earlier if a majority is reached before then.

Edit: The following villagers have given notice of their potential absence on this thread and will be exempt from the auto-kill rule: Celuien, Feanor of the Peredhil.

[Anguirel]

Ironic indeed. the phantom was correct about his innocence, but the late heroic seaman Eomer was even more wise about his survivability.

It seems to me that we must examine the village records, and see who fanned the flames to destroy Eomer-in particular those who committed themselves late, but decisively.

The healer-shirriff's demise has assured one thing for me-as I said earlier, the furrier Saurreg is unlikely to be a werewolf and to be acting alone. Indeed, his defence of the phantom, effective and well-timed, makes me suspect he is the other shirriff (as the phantom claimed that Eomer had guessed). I feel free to suggest this as, alone, a shirriff is of limited use to the village, and I do not feel this possible exposure will increase the chances of his murder by wolves. Despite Eomer's parting words to us, I believe we can absolve Saurreg of guilt, whether to conspiracy or murder.

As for my own exhortation that the phantom be hanged, I am unapologetic. His divisive tactics and feudings, in any case, did not befit his lawful rank and harmed the village more than they benefitted. But I will add that he was undoubtedly a brave, if misguided, man, utterly true to his own convictions; the convictions that the wolves among us exploited. Eru keep his soul.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Why in the world did he have to be so arrogant, self-assured, and most of all, willing to kill people "for the good of the village"? I was convinced that the fool was a wolf. Now I have to go and ruin all my partying this afternoon by coming up with new suspects since you all went and lynched my old one, and then the one I most wanted to lynch went and got suicidal on me. Do you know what a damper this puts on my afternoon?

I recommend taking a closer look at Firefoot, unless in my skimmings I missed something important (such as her not actually being alive any more). Either she's bad enough at this that she's been wrong about all of her suspects, or she's trying to frame them up because people think she's trustworthy. Either way, it's not reassuring.

[Lalaith]

So we are nine.

And the souls of two of those already dead lie heavy on my conscience, our poor Guardian and innocent Oddwen, slaughtered by my numerical idiocy. And poor phantom, I was so wrong about him, as he was so wrong about Eomer.

I have thought however of one slight silver lining. At least, if we wake up with no-one dead, we will know for sure that the wolves' ranks have been swelled by the cursed villager - there will be no optimistic pondering about Guardian success. Of course, among our many lynching blunders, the cursed villager may already lie dead.
Among our nine innocents, we still have our Seer and the Guardian, and one lonely Shirriff.
It is ironic to think that of those five who were nominated on our first day, three are now dead and all were innocent. Esgalhugwen and Saurreg are remaining nominees surviving from that first day. No-one stepped forward to save them, either, so can we deduce from that, that both are innocent? (Phantom could not save Saurreg, if Saurreg was in truth the other shirriff, as he had already voted).
Or was perhaps one a werewolf, and his two partners in evil ready to let him die for the sake of taking four innocents with him in a mass lynching?
Will the other shirriff now step forward and declare himself, I wonder?

[the guy who be short]

Guardian = Ranger = Kath = Dead.

The Hunter is still alive.

[Anguirel]

I also wonder if the Shirriff will come into the open. More interestingly, will wolves, or simple rogues and tricksters who love to sow confusion, claim shirriffdom; a risky tactic, but potentially a rewarding one? We must be on our guard. In the end, I believe the direct unmasking of the shirriff will only help the wolves; however, we may indirectly unmask the shirriff by defending villagers on the grounds that we believe they are the shirriff, as I did with Saurreg. This shows the clarity of our thought processes and helps back up our rhetoric and theories with appropriate rationale.

[Lalaith]

Sorry, I just keep getting those two mixed up. I think I must be in denial about the whole Kath thing, I felt so bad about it.

[Lalaith]

Anguirel, I know what you are saying, but if a wolf was to pit himself against the true shirriff, it would have to be a wolf with a convincing case, one who has made posts supporting the phantom?
But of those gifted who are still left, will the wolves at this stage be so keen to kill any of them?
The Seer, once dead and thus with his/her identity revealed, leaves a meaningful trail of posts behind him/her, which could help the survivors.
The Hunter might on his death kill one of the werewolves.
The remaining Shirriff is no more use than an ordinary villager.
No, I think that the werewolves will be looking to kill the Cursed villager. If of course we have not already killed him.
I tried to save Eomer because I thought he might be the Seer, as he seemed to know my innocence. But that was when I thought the phantom guilty. I thought Eomer had also dreamt about the phantom, you see.
The Seer has now had three dreams. Can we find his or her hints?

[Anguirel]

For their sake, I hope not. We want this putative trail to be rather longer...

Now, to the main matter at hand. Who helped put the nail in Eomer and Oddwen's coffins, especially when there was little left to lose, but also in cases of particularly skilled prosecution? Supporters of lynching the phantom-among whom I am numbered-should be impartially examined as well. But most of all-beware the bandwagon.

Oddwen's innocence was clear to me the moment she wasted her vote on a tit for tat against Celuien-a candidate unlikely to attract support, who all evidence of her argument suggests she is genuinely trying to work things out for the village. That was not the action of a wolf.

On the other hand, Evisse's much earlier denunciation of the luckless Lalaith strikes me as rather more sinister; this could have developed into a strong case due to Lalaith's earlier apparent misfortune with our Ranger. Note also Evisse's insistence on her vote's tactical nature-an attempt to duck blame if Lalaith is found to be innocent. It seems slightly lupine, though this only occurred to me ten minutes ago, and is far from a developed or reinforced case...

[Firefoot]

I recommend taking a closer look at Firefoot, unless in my skimmings I missed something important (such as her not actually being alive any more). Either she's bad enough at this that she's been wrong about all of her suspects, or she's trying to frame them up because people think she's trustworthy. Either way, it's not reassuring.

But I was right about both Eomer and phantom, wasn't I?

I am not having a very good time choosing my suspects right now (obviously). Towards the end of voting I was feeling irritated with Saurreg for his comments such as "at least someone here knows what he's talking about." (Note: I said irritation, not suspicion. I'm not ready to blame anybody yet today.)

For what it's worth, yesterday's voting was:

Eomer - 5 (*Saurreg*, Hookbill, phantom, dancing spawn, lmp)
Oddwen - 5 (Nilp, *Celuien*, Firefoot, Esga, Lalaith)
Phantom - 2 (Anguirel, Eomer)
LMP - 1 (Fea)
Lalaith - 1 (Evisse)
Celuien - 1 (Oddwen)

Day 1's voting with newly proven innocents filled in.

Anyway, I'm going to review the thread more closely before making more accusations. Hopefully we can bag a werewolf today.

[Lalaith]

Anguierel, looking for chief prosecutors is not always the right solution, it was after all phantom who drove the Eomer bandwaggon. He just had the wrong end of the stick.
I'll tell you what puzzle is keeping me awake at night - the first day's voting.
Did the wolves vote or abstain? Did sit back to enjoy a wholescale massacre, or did they engineer it?

[Evisse the Blue]

Hmmm. I think the phantom was kinda right. The werewolves might have tried to frame him and lynch him on Day 2, then when they couldn't do it, they killed him at Night. Why else wouldn't they kill him on Night 2 then, only to finally do him in the following Night? So maybe we should start looking at the way everyone voted. My theory is that last Day's events were an attempted lynching against phantom that got out of hand, because people somehow were more persuaded to vote against Eomer and Oddwen. I do suspect however that the last votes for Oddwen at the very end of the Day were placed in order to create the tie.

Originally Posted by Fea

Either way, it's not reassuring.

Even less reassuring is you coming up with different suspects every day. That and the fact that on day 1 you told Eomer and phantom 'I hope you both die' and then, lo and behold...You're gonna tell me you didn't vote for Eomer on day 2, yes I know....Also, it doesn't look like you'll be voting for LMP on this one...

As for why I voted for Lalaith yesterday...
Basically I wanted to scatter the votes. And I wasn't convinced of either one's guilt (the phantom's or Eomer), so I didn't want to vote just to go along with the crowd. Most mistakes are made like that, as we all must realize by now.
At the moment I cast my vote, I could see two sides forming: pro phantom and pro Eomer. One of these sides was guilty, one was innocent. Or ironically they were both innocent, as I see it now, and the wolves were somewhere in the middle, laughing. As I couldn't tell which was which, I decided to select from my suspect list another name, in order to scatter the votes. This way, there was a bigger chance there was a werewolf on the lynch list.

Ironically, Oddwen was also on my suspect list, but as I went back to read through what she said, I realized I had ridiculously little against her.

I wanted to vote for someone who was on my suspect list and whose position I was not at all sure of. And if you want to know the reasons Lalaith was even on my suspect list, here they are: she seems a very logical and analytical person who nonetheless did cast a hasty vote for Kath on day 1 (ok, I know it was day 1 and all of us were dancing in the dark, but there were more suspicious characters than Kath around) , then even on day 2 she managed to work her way around arguments in such a way that I couldn't tell who she was suspecting, (which made her one of those 'grey' characters I mentioned as suspicious on Day 1. She said she would have voted for phantom but didn't, instead cast her vote for Oddwen to save Eomer whom she claimed she thought was gifted. But whatever reasons we all had to think Eomer was gifted, must have been disspelled by then, as no gifted one would go so aggresively after someone like he went after the phantom and Saurreg. Also, I wanted to see if she usually ignores her name coming up under suspicion, or she just made an exception when Eomer half jokingly accused her on Day 1. On Day 2 Lalaith somehow manages to create a tie between two innocents. Of course, she could argue that simply cross posting with Esga could mean she missed her post above, which is quite believable.
But why wait until the very end to cast your vote? And not to forget, I quite suspect Esga as well.

Also, there's something else I find unsettling about Lalaith: she keeps bringing into discussion the gifted villagers, in such a way, as if she expected us to point towards this person or that as being gifted, or to share our opinions of who is gifted and how. Not that innocent villagers are not allowed to wonder who the gifted villagers are, but are you willing to risk such information to be out in the open in order for you to have more certainty?

[Anguirel]

Evisse, a well written defence of your action; I am now slightly less worried about you. Most well-conducted. Have you considered entering the legal profession? Brehon courses provided for nineteen groats.

However, though I agree with you that it's unwise to speculate on the identities of those to whom we owe our survival (as it does the wolves' work for them,) I think at present that Lalaith is trying to sort things out, in her own mind as well as ours. She's groping after clarity. I have nothing solid to back this up, only instinct.

Firefoot, thank you for your evidence. It seems to me that your own guess for Saurreg was a solely "gut-feeling" matter. As for Esga, she was denounced without a shred of evidence, by someone we know for sure was not the Seer. The first shortlist is thus hardly valid as a suspect list. We need to look at Day 2's activities.

[Lalaith]

Having watched the tragic outcome of the phantom vs Eomer battle, I know what harm two busy innocents suspecting each other can do. So I will hold my fire regarding Evisse's accusations until I have slept and thought.
Until tomorrow, villagers, adieu.

[littlemanpoet]

As I showed in post #150, everybody but everybody seemed like they could be either lupine or innocent. That tells me that the wolves are doing a great job of covering their identities. Saurreg seemed guilty to me based on his day one voting record, but the phantom's good word in S's direction is indication of his likely innocence, not to mention S's likely status as a shirriff. What about day 2's votes?

As I made quite clear in my vote post, I was trying to avoid a tie, especially since I didn't think Oddwen was a werewolf. So of my list of three suspects, I voted for Eomer because (1) he was on my personal suspect list, and (2) there was building consensus against him. If the consensus had been building against Saurreg instead, I would have voted for him without apology, for the same reasons.

There are, however, two individuals who worked to get Oddwen up even with Eomer, and that concerns me. Are Eswen and Lalaith werewolves, in cahoots together? I have already said that I think Lalaith is no fool. On the other hand, if she is not a werewolf, she has made some pretty ghastly muffs. If E and L worked together to get the votes up even in order to lynch two for the price of one, they made an awfully bald move, which could be construed as a stupid move for a pair of werewolves. It just seems too obvious. Unless they brilliantly played a bold move, counting on us using double-think so that we'd say "nah, they can't be the werewolves, that's too obvious". So basically there's not enough evidence there.

So who does that leave as possible werewolves worth lynching (here we go again)?

Saurreg voted for Eomer who was innocent. Saurreg is probably the other shirrif, which means he's not likely a werewolf.

Celuien voted for Oddwen who was also innocent. She seems innocent to me, but then she could be playing a very clever "hide the identity" game.

Feanor voted for me. I'm innocent. That does make me wonder. She has flip flopped too. She is a loudmouth when she's not too busy, but that means very little. Most recently she has cast aspersions against Firefoot. Hmmm..... However, Evisse's recent comments on Feanor's Day 1 words show me that Fea is more emotive than wolfish; it just strikes me as too obvious a statement.

Firefoot voted for innocent Oddwen. Gut instinct, so far, is that Firefoot's not guilty.

Anguirel voted for the innocent phantom. Does not seem wolfish to me ... so far. Gut instinct, that.

dancing spawn voted for innocent Eomer. She is on my suspect list, but only on the strength of Feanor's suspicion (even though she voted for me).

Evisse voted for Lalaith. She thinks now that there was a possible conspiracy to lynch the phantom, which failed. That would mean that her suspects are Anguirel and ... um ... Eomer. But that doesn't work, since Eomer's innocent. And dead.

Hookbill voted for innocent Eomer. He, like Firefoot, have done us the service of keeping score (which I guess I sort of do too). Nothing especially "damning" about that.

littlemanpoet - I voted for innocent Eomer. As I said earlier, I was pretty convinced that the phantom was innocent; which has been proved now, sadly. I had to vote either before 6 am EDT or after 11 am EDT, and chose to use my vote more wisely toward the end, since I really wasn't sure which of my three to vote for early, and didn't want to waste my vote.

Nilpaurion voted for innocent Oddwen. He's playing a game of "sheep in wolf's clothing", which may or may not be dangerous.

So far all of us have been proven wrong except for Feanor and Evisse. Congratulations to the both of you that the person you voted for has not died and been shown to be innocent ... yet.

So basically what I come up with is that Day 2's votes tell us next to nothing about who the werewolves might be. So now what?

Well, there is one interesting factor. Anguirel noted that Eomer was right about the phantom. What else did Eomer say in his swan song post #209)? That Saurreg is just obviously a werewolf. Well, we doubt that now. That Fea is flip flopping and a good choice for lynching. Well, I am sympathetic with that view, as she voted for me, but that is not a good enough reason. I appreciate his good word for me. And what the heck was he saying to Nilpaurion? I didn't get that.

So who am I left with as possible werewolves? Well, I'm not sure of anybody. You guys are all playing a superb game. But somewhere amongst us are three werewolves - or four! Let's all keep our eyes open, my friends.

And I shall try to revive my penchant for doggerel soon.

[Firefoot]

Well, I've gone through the thread a bit more as promised. Here's what I've been thinking.

I am doubtful that Celuien is a werewolf. She has been analytical and straight to the point; her points are logical and make sense. Nor do I feel very suspicious of Hookbill or Evisse. I don't see anything very werewolfish about them.

I have mixed feelings about Lalaith. She has been conservative, though has offered her opinions in a fairly straight-forward manner. She has given the appearance of being open-minded. Both good strategies for both innocents and wolves. She followed the Eomer case very closely, generally leaning towards his innocence; she put several cases forth "if he was a werewolf, this... but if he wasn't, that..." She has commented about werewolf strategy, which would seem to indicate innocence, however, it has not been enough that it would give away werewolf strategy if she were to be a werewolf. On a scale of 1-5, I would put her at about a 3.

If Lalaith is a werewolf, I would then look towards Anguirel. I am mildly suspicious of Anguirel anyway; he seems to put himself above suspicion (and this may be because he is innocent, of course). He has been fair and not very vindicitive (again: a good strategy for both wolves and villagers. It doesn't necessarily mean anything); I almost wish he would be a little more concrete. He has at least three times now mentioned Lalaith's innocence (post #'s 165, 223, 227), generally in passing as if not to bring too much attention to her but enough to gently nudge others that way. I don't see any other evidence of this; if these two are our wolves, I think that the third has not attracted much negative attention yet.

I'm still not comfortable with Saurreg, for reasons already stated; primarily now his apparent knee-jerk reaction to my previous accusations. Also, as I said before, my irritation with his rude comments, more likely to produce division than the unity we innocents need. However, I see no real concisive evidence for him to be a werewolf. I shall remain watchful here.

Nor am I comfortable with Fea. Numerous times, she has tried to nudge the accusations in my direction. If she were a wolf, I would justify the deaths of Azaelia and Eomer as a possible attempt to set me up: Azaelia, who I had already expressed suspicion on (plus Kath), then phantom, who I thought to be innocent, and would "make sense" for me to kill according to my theory that a wolf would not kill anyone that they had cast suspicion on publicly. The other odd thing that I find about Fea is her insistence about lmp. Except for her erroneous accusations of me I would say she was the seer. However, she seems too noisy and, well, vehement to be a wolf. She brings a lot of attention to herself, so unless this was to hide the other two 'quiet' wolves, this would argue against the Fea=werewolf case. So, I don't have a lot of backup here, but I will again be watchful.

Nilpaurion is just a mystery. I am inclined to think him innocent, though.

I am leaning towards the innocence of Esga, dancing spawn, and lmp. In particular, lmp's analysis post seemed fairly correct based on what evidence we had at that point.

So there you go. None of this is concrete, rather, it is likely to change. But based on what people have said so far this is where I'm at. Besides, someone needed to comment at length today. Maybe this will stem some discussion.

Edit: cross-posting with lmp.

Edit 2: After reading lmp's post, I am further convinced that lmp is probably innocent.

[Celuien]

Alas for the phantom. We've lost another gifted villager, as I feared he was.

I feel sick about my vote for Oddwen yesterday, now that we now she was an innocent as well. I hope that she can forgive me for voting against her, wherever she is. I did what I felt I had to do to try and save the phantom and Eomer, of whose innocence I was certain. Or rather, I had as much certainty as possible for an ordinary weaver. Unfortunately, my plan backfired in the loss of two innocents, since my theory that implicated Oddwen (which I did fear was shaky) turned out to be wrong and we ended in a tie.

I'm not sure what to do today. My unease about Saurreg still exists, although most of my suspicions are founded on the grouping discussed yesterday in regard to Oddwen. The rest is based on the same reasons that other villagers have given. I'm also starting to wonder about Fea because of her targeting of lmp, who doesn't seem wolfish to me.

After yesterday, I'm having trouble finding any clarity. I think I'm going to wait and see what happens before I make any further judgments.

EDIT: It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Celuien

It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

I discussed that in post # 229.

I see that there is continued unease about Saurreg. Didn't it seem clear that he and the phantom were sure of each other's innocence?

And Lalaith still garners suspicion? Though her voting pattern seems a bit too obvious and goofy, that could be by design, I suppose.

Mild suspicion of Anguirel? This is based so far on his failure to be concrete, as Firefoot admits.

And Feanor garners suspicion. I appreciate the confidence some of you have shown in me; it tends to make me think you are also innocent, Firefoot and Celuien, which was the direction I was leaning already. I did say Fea seems more emotive than wolfish, but then maybe emotive is just how Fea is, and she could still be a wolf. Her voting record should probably therefore be more sound as evidence in her regard, rather than the verve with which she posts. So far she has voted for Eomer, who was innocent, and for me. I can of course tell you I'm innocent also, until I'm blue in the face, but of course in the end you have to be the judge of that. Again, I thank you for your confidence.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I discussed that in post # 229.

I see that there is continued unease about Saurreg. Didn't it seem clear that he and the phantom were sure of each other's innocence?

Ah, I missed that. It must be road fatigue - I've had a long trip between villages today.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well... I've made it back from all my "painting and drawing", and yet I can still only fit in one good post before I disappear again.

Thanks for referring to me as emotive, LMP, because I'm a passionate loudmouth. It's true. We all know it, so there's no point in denial. I'm not a wolf though. Why would a wolf try her absolute best to shoot down a plan to kill innocents and try and lynch the guys trying to kill the good guys?

About that "I hope you both die"... pretty ironic, ain't it? Sorry if that arouses any suspicion, but I feel pretty special that the wolves went through all the effort of making me look guilty as all heck by killing the guys on my hitlist. Sure I feel bad that they were innocent, but I don't feel bad that they died. After all, the phantom tried to kill the good guys, and Eomer told him that he was right in that I was "insane". Now that may or may not be true, but it doesn't apply to the game.

About my "targeting" LMP... I explained that really well, or so I thought. I had to vote in a rush. I only had four suspects. I didn't want to vote for the phantom out of annoyance, plus I suspected he was the Seer. I didn't want to risk it. Eomer, I no longer suspected. Remember my "It's always good to have publics "suspects" whether you suspect them or not?" Yeah... he was just the guy I pointed my finger at on Day One for lack of anything better to do. Spawn, I no longer cared about. I wasn't suspicious. By default, I had to vote for LMP. No hard feelings, ol' boy, but you were the only possibility for me at the time.

Now, however... I'm still going to say "LITTLEMANPOET IS A WOLF." He's just too polite of a loudmouth to be sincere. But then again... I'm also suspicious of Lalaith, just for good measure, and I think that The Barrow-Wight and The Saucepan Man and Esty are wolves.

No... in all seriousness... what the heck is with Nilpy? First he's saying "I'm innocent, lynch me." And then he says "I'm a wolf. Lynch me." Let's just lynch him and get the mystery out of it all. The only question is whether he's the Hunter and just wants a free shot at whoever he's got his beady little eyes on.

[Saurreg]

Fish, The Phantom is now dead and i have yet to return him his gold star.

I posted yesterday that I thought Oddwen was innocent and yet people still voted for her when the prime suspects were Eomer, The Phantom and I. Go figure...

Of Firefoot's list of four, three are dead and I was the favor of the day early on, with only Phantom by my side. I have not discounted my suspicions of her but that can wait (I hope. Yesterday's voting was interesting. It was a battle to the last between Eomer and the Phantom and then suddenly Oddwen's name popped out and won the tie.

Why Oddwen? As I recalled, she did not post much or anything during the second round to arouse suspicion except to express her indignance at the vote being levied at her.

Those who voted against Oddwen were (In chronological order):

Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien
Firefoot
Esgallhugwen
Lalaith

More latter.

EDIT: I also believe as of this time that Feanor is not a werewolf. I believe she was the first to vote and she voted for LMP - a most improbable choice that as proven, was not followed upon by.

We have three wolves. They must have divided their votes between Eomer, the Phantom and Oddwen and just so that they don't appear to suspicious they could have changed their voting patterns such as having a different wolf vote for different candidates each round. But all three votes would have been cast for the one with the most votes and the runner-up.

Trends to look out for:

1. Any pattern of same names that have voted for the condemned and the next most suspicious together.

2. The same names appearing much latter during the vote.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Celuien

EDIT: It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

There was no tie between The Phantom and Oddwen. It was the latter and Eomer. And why just The Phantom and Oddwen? Why not also look at the votes for Eomer also? Why have you discounted him? I would like to hear the reasons.

Those who voted for Eomer (In chronological order):

Saurreg
Hookbill the Goomba
The phantom
Dancing spawn of Ungoliant
littlemanpoet

And for those of you who still persist on calling me wolf. Have it your way. It's not as if I give a fish about it anymore because no matter how hard I try to exonerate myself, someone would still find the flimsiest of substance and use it to condemn me. So vote if you want. And if you think no one's gonna follow you, go ahead and bring your siblings, bring your mother and your father, bring your cousins, aunts and uncles. Bring your entire clan. See if I care.

[Saurreg]

Those who voted on Round 1:

Celuien for Oddwen
Firefoot for Saurreg
Lalaith for Kath
Feanor of the Peredhil for Eomer of the Rohirrim

I have already discounted Eomer and the Phantom because they are dead and innocent.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Slightly off-topic: I'm going to be away since I have work today but I'll be back a couple of hours before the deadline.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Oh dear

I'm a bit lost at the moment. All my w-w theories have just gone out of the proverbial window with the death of phantom. After Eomer turned out innocent, I was sure phantom would be a hairy one. But now... I'm going to have to think a little harder.

[Lalaith]

have already said that I think Lalaith is no fool. On the other hand, if she is not a werewolf, she has made some pretty ghastly muffs

Tell me about it. I can't tell you how stupid I feel. I got back an hour before voting, found everyone had been posting like crazy, and I wanted to read carefully before I voted. But not carefully enough, I honestly thought Eomer had four votes, not five, and in a gamble that the missing voter would show, and also wanted to save Eomer, I went for Oddwen. I had already deduced (post 130, sorry don't understand the dark arts of posting single post link) that Eomer was most likely innocent, and I thought he might be the Seer, and so needed to be saved.
Losgulhugwen also voted for Oddwen. (It was a double post - I didn't see her vote until I'd voted myself). Did she (I think it's a she!?) make the same mistake as me? It's quite possible...

As for my vote for Kath, I don't think I should be singled out for that. I don't think anyone made particularly good voting choices that day. Including those that didn't vote at all and left five villagers up for lynching. We know now that two of the other nominees were innocent and a third is quite likely to be innocent. And as for the fourth, phantom just voted for Losgulhugwen because he thought she would die anyway as an absentee.
(Btw Saurreg you forgot Feanor off your list of voters, she voted for Eomer, remember?)
I don't think you can blame me for Kath. But you can blame me all you like for the Oddwen stupidity, and honestly, if it weren't for the fact that it would be highly dangerous at this stage to lose another innocent, I'd offer myself up for lynching just so the village would lose a member who is clearly a liability. I really am sorry... but I am not a werewolf.