Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Kuruharan]

Well I'm sorry Kuru if it seems that way to you, but I guess I just lack your utter certainty about, and total faith in the validity of my conclusions.

-and-

Your own total certainty reveals you to be either a wolf or an incautious innocent
-Fordim

You misunderstand me. It is not at all that I am not aware that I might be wrong. (I obviously think that is unlikely...) However, such public displays of doubt serve little purpose and are a waste of time in my opinion. And what good does being a cautious innocent serve?

rather than stand around afterward, red in the face with embarassment, mumbling about how sure I was that I was correct
-Fordim

If that is going to happen it is going to happen. Mumbling about in red-faced embarassment beforehand is going to do little toward getting to that point.

Then again, if I am lynched, you will see that I am innocent.

Now I see you are trying to copy my method...

Other than that, it is purely quotes taken out of context (as mormegil notes) and conjecture.
-The Saucepan Man

Oh really? In what way were the quotes you made regarding Evisse taken out of context? I imagine you were not particularly happy to have the context of some of them be before I'd ever mentioned Evisse. In what way was your instant blaming of me and your playing up of my role in Evisse's death taken out of context? In what way did I take your 180 and your sudden desire to lynch Son of Numenor out of context?

I meant that you said practically nothing controversial until the discussion began to identify a single candidate for lynching (Evisse – by Shelob’s vote and my conjecture). You then concentrated your efforts on that candidate.

Well, you at least have things in the correct order here in that you were first on that road. Probably decided to do this since I'd called you on it so many times. However, I thought that identifying candidates was what we were here to do. Evisse acted a little strange in her replies to me and that was mainly what I spent my time responding to. You were the one in the background egging us on, pointing out some of the strange factors in her posts.

Finally, I am not at all sure what to make of these comments by Kuruharan:

Quote:
If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.

I have no idea what he meant by that but, whatever he did mean, it seems to be reading far too much into what was clearly a flippant comment.

You think that was strange, try this one. I think that you told your cronies to not vote against you because you think you can still save yourself. Now, I don't disagree with that reasoning so much because it is possible. However, I think that is going on here.

This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me.

A curious comment. I am not aware that anyone has given any indication of voting for Kuru today, so why would he say that?

Talk about taking things out of context. I think I deserve to be quoted in full.

Trust me. Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later. This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me. Just pick who you think is more trustworthy.

While I have no particular objection to being hung, the meaning of that post was if you thing Saucepan is more trustworthy vote for the phantom. If you think I am more trustworthy, vote for Saucepan. It was not an encouragement to vote for me, although I don't have a problem with that. My later comment was more of a joke, although I can see why it would cause confusion.

In spite of that, Saucepan why don't you go ahead and vote for me anyway. ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

I see that you have been taking lessons from the phantom in style of argument, Kuru. Or perhaps it's vice versa.

My are you going to look foolish if I get lynched. :D

[The Only Real Estel]

As I said earlier I am willing to let the phantom live until tommorrow.
++The Saucepan Man

I think that makes the voting:

SpM- 5

phantom- 4

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey.

edit: it has been said that lynching phantom will clear everyone's minds, but I think that if SpM gets lynched it will clear things up as much or more for me...even if he does somehow turn out to be not guilty

[Kuruharan]

My are you going to look foolish if I get lynched.

And you are copying my style. Almost word for word, if I may say.

If I'm wrong, then yes I will look quite foolish. However, I don't have a problem with this either. At least I'll have done something that I know is independent and I've not been dragged about like a fish on a line. However, if that is the case you are also going to look very foolish for having come down so hard on me on DAY TWO, because as will be seen in the end, I am innocent.

No doubt we will all have a good laugh about this when we are finished.

However, as of this moment, I don't think I will look foolish.

EDIT:
Estel-I wouldn't count the Shelob vote before it is actually cast. There is no real knowing how she's going to go.

(It depends on what her marching orders are. ;))

EDIT TO THE EDIT:
I believe the phantom has 3 votes against him. Zali, Fordim, and mormegil.

[Firefoot]

TORE - phantom actually has 3 votes - Azaelia, Fordim, and mormegil.

And I am going to place my vote for ++PHANTOM. I have read the posts since I went to bed last night and do not find my mind changed much in that I still find phantom more suspicious than SpM. I don't really have time to respond in more length, but I doubt anyone really expected me to vote otherwise anyway.

I will say that I am intrigued by Kuru's very vocal defense of phantom. He seems more willing to be lynched himself than allow phantom to be lynched. I will reserve thoughts on this until later, when I have more time to really analyse the arguments.

So that makes the vote:
phantom - 4
SpM - 5

[Kuruharan]

Oh yes, then there is the other werewolf Firefoot who will vote for the phantom.

I was forgetting about her (even though I probably have less excuse for that than others).

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Hmmmm...

Saucy will vote for the phantom making it 5 to 4...

So it will be up to Firefoot and Shelob to decide this one...

I think that no matter what happens today we are going to learn a lot of interesting things about all of the abovementioned people.

Edit: cross-posted with Firefoot; so as soon as Saucy casts his vote, it will leave Shelob in the driver's seat -- now, if she casts her vote elsewhere, we could have a tie and be rid of the both of them right away: of course, woe betide us if they are both innocent!!

[The Only Real Estel]

It looks like it will be 5-5 with Shelob to vote...how will she vote?

EDIT: Not wanting to post after Eomer's post (again anyway), I'm posting my thoughts on the outcome of the vote as an edit. I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY. I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't something to Kuru's 'marching orders' comment. I know phantom has drawn attention to himself this round, but I don't think he's drawn enough to change an opinion that hopefully was made with some conviction. If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

There's a good chance that phantom is guilty, but if he is innocent & we've let a wolf off the hook (or noose, however you like) again then we've got a major problem on our hands.

[Firefoot]

then there is the other werewolf Firefoot I like your certainty. :rolleyes:

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I like your certainty. :rolleyes:

I fear it.

WHERE'S SHELOB?? THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME -- AND I GOT WORK TO DO TODAY!!

[Kuruharan]

I like your certainty.

We shall see.

WHERE'S SHELOB?? THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME -- AND I GOT WORK TO DO TODAY!!

If you'd only voted for Saucepan Man you wouldn't be in this spot. ;)

[mormegil]

My My it's rather political isn't it right now. Can anyone else just see Kuru standing at the voting booth yelling at would be voters. Seems to be using intimidation now rather than logic. You did use logic before but now with the vehement yelling I think you are trying to scare people into the vote.

[Shelob]

"WHERE'S SHELOB?? THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME -- AND I GOT WORK TO DO TODAY!!"

In school...and this is close I'm so sorry fot that...but ++THE PHANTOM

[Kuruharan]

I'm sorry. I didn't mean to be coming across as yelling. I'm just engaging in a little ribbing to pass the time. ;)

...maybe if I put more smilies after my posts. ;) :)

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it is clear which way I must vote. If I want to survive another day, I must vote for:

++ THE PHANTOM

Besides, his extraordinary effort to defend himself makes me suspicious and, in any event, I agree with Fordim that, if he is innocent, his self-serving blathering has done little to assist the village’s cause.

Edit: I am sure that it is clear why I waited until everyone else had voted before casting my own vote. If not, I'll spell it out tomorrow (if I survive the night). :rolleyes:

And if the supense was killing you, Fordim, think what it was doing to me! At least I can get on with my work in peace now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, so voting is over. I must read all that I've missed (about 3 pages thanks to your incessant debate!) before I post again.

So expect a lynching quite soon, within the hour anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No scattered votes this time; the village had two main suspects, and by one vote it was decided that the phantom should be put to death.

He was indignant about this turn of events. When the townspeople came to hang him, he refused.

I won't give up my life without a fight he said coldly.

The villagers looked at each other, and then advanced on him. He stood up and braced himself for combat. That was enough to make the villagers leap towards him, pinning him to the ground.

But he fought like a man possessed, like a wild animal! He was wounding his fellows with his teeth and his fists. It took several minutes to keep him still. Tying him up was also very difficult, but they managed.

They led him to the gallows, but he almost broke free! So furious was he at this, the end of his life. Beast! they cried, Wolf! Curse you for what you have done! And the phantom did not argue (for a change). He merely stared at the villagers with hatred in his eyes, having been tied up with more rope.

Here was a werewolf thought the village.

And so the executioner (not without pleasure) did pull the lever, and the phantom fell, and another neck of the village had been snapped.

But his body just swayed in the wind.

At this sight, the wolves hidden in the audience laughed hidden laughs to themselves. Another innocent had been killed by his fellows.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3

Score:

Werewolves: 3 (?)
Villagers 7 (?)


NIGHT 4 has started, now that it is 4PM GMT (that's 11AM EST) and (10AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if all night-time activity is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers had become disciplined; awakening early and scrambling to the Town Hall as soon they were dressed. They needed to know what had happened during the night. On the night before last nothing had happened, but it swiftly became apparent that the Werewolves had not been denied a feast under the next moon.

Firefoot was missing.

O no, O dear! the villagers cried as they raced to her house. Firefoot owned the stable, a large friendly-looking home that was arguably the favourite destination of any tourists and travellers to Storyland. Firefoot's horses were known throughout the land.

But the villagers had already implicitly realised that money from tourism was going to be a record low this year. And the murder of Firefoot was probably the most gruesome yet: her horses had been slaughtered in the stable, and Firefoot had been drowned in a trough filled with blood.

The villagers quailed, and staggered out of the house. But one observant person noted something lying on a large round table: a book with fresh ink. It was some sort of diary.

Reading through the book, one particular passage stood out, as it had been written in a furious hurry of excitement, and was quite messy. It read thus:

My endeavours have not been in vain: I saved a villager. My spells are bewildering to others, and hardly tangible even to me, but I just know that the person was saved. I felt it in my bones that night. I helped, even in the slightest way, in the fight against this outrageous foe.

The villagers felt even sadder now. Certainly Firefoot was magical and some people had even supposed that she was a witch (similar to Evisse really), but they didn't realise how powerful she had been. She was their guardian, and she had saved a villager from the wolves. It was good to know that they had got lucky, and that there were only 3 werewolves terrorising them. However, with very little in the way of help left to them, they knew that they had to get their act together, and kill some wolves before it was too late.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 6


DAY 4 has started, now that it is around 3:15 PM GMT (that's 10:15 AM EST) and (9:15 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached before then.

[The Saucepan Man]

It is sad indeed that we are faced with the death of such an important member of our community. Unfortunately, since she seems to have been very low on most people’s list of suspects (and she was certainly low down on mine), it does not surprise me that the Werewolves went for her. And now it turns out that she was our Guardian. Well, at least she was able to protect one of our number from a grisly death. We should review our previous days’ discussions and see what accusations have been made against her, but I suspect that they are few in number. We should also look to see who she suspected the least, since she would no doubt have sought to protect one who she thought to be innocent.

In the meantime, I have a few thoughts that I would like to share with the village.

I should first say, in case anyone asks, that the reason that I voted last yesterday was twofold. First, I wanted to make sure that there was no tie in the voting, resulting in the death of two innocent Villagers. And secondly, if I was to be lynched, there were a few things that I wanted to say by way of a last message from a Villager whose innocence would have been established shortly thereafter.

As I indicated on a number of occasions yesterday, the phantom was never top of my suspect list. I had no great suspicion of him before yesterday (and even defended him on a number of occasions), and the only basis that I really had for suspecting him yesterday was the way that he went into overdrive in trying to defend himself. I would have preferred to have voted for another candidate, but in the end was given no real choice. Because of the way that the village acted yesterday, it came down to a question of him or me. Moreover, by the time I actually voted, any vote other than for the phantom would have resulted in both he and I being lynched, which would have resulted in the deaths of two innocent Villagers.

Which bring me to my main point. I hope that everyone can see that the entire proceedings yesterday were carefully (and masterfully, I might say) orchestrated to push the village in a certain direction. Very early on, a “shortlist” was identified for lynching. And it was put forward on a very logical basis. It comprised all of those who had voted for both Evisse and SoN.

The names on the list were the phantom, The Saucepan Man and The Only Real Estel. I now know that the phantom was innocent. I am also now pretty much convinced that The Only Real Estel is innocent, on the basis that he could have eliminated both Evisse and the phantom on Day 1 had he wanted to (which would have been a good Werewolf tactic, whatever the phantom may have said yesterday). And I know that I am innocent. I obviously don’t expect everyone blindly to accept that, but I hope that what I say below will go some way towards convincing those of you who are also innocent.

So, at least two, and probably three, of the names on this “shortlist” were those of innocent Villagers. How more ideal could it be for the Werewolves? As long as they could persuade the village to concentrate on at least two of those names, they would be free from any risk of being lynched and guarantee that an innocent Villager was killed at the end of the day. They might even succeed in lynching two innocents but, if not, there would still be prime suspects for lynching the next day (since, if the plan worked, each Villager on the list would end up voting for one of the others, ie an innocent).

So what happened yesterday? Well, the Werewolves concentrated their efforts on the phantom and me. They worked tirelessly through the day, first making sure that consideration remained focussed on the two of us and, secondly, in making sure that every Villager voted for one or other of us. We now know that there were three Werewolves operating that day. I believe that one took responsibility for keeping the focus on me, while the other two gunned for the phantom. Since, following the preceding days’ events, I was already high on most people’s list of suspects, it would not take so much effort to persuade people to vote for me. The phantom would require a little more effort (and probably more subtlety). They did not really mind which one of us was lynched, as long as it was one of us. The other could wait until the next day, they would have thought. It might have been the other way round, but I believe that one Werewolf went for, and voted for, me, while the other two went for, and voted for, the phantom.

Their plan worked pretty well too. I suspect that they didn’t really go for The Only Real Estel, because it was easier to concentrate peoples’ minds on two names, and easier to ensure that the phantom would vote for me and vice versa. And go for me and the phantom, they certainly did, succeeding in limiting the discussion to the two of us very early on and ultimately achieving a fairly even distribution of votes between the two of us (so no particular suspicion would attach for the Wolf or Wolves that voted for the one that ended up being lynched).

But it did not go entirely their own way. In limiting the eventual “shortlist” to two names, they hoped that the phantom and I would direct our energies towards taking each other out. That way, the survivor would be heavily implicated when the other was lynched and his innocence proved. The phantom fell for it and went for me in a big way. But I would not play along. I made no direct accusations and made clear on a number of occasions that I was not convinced of the phantom’s guilt. Kuruharan tried to suggest that I had implicated the phantom but, as I pointed out, given the two Villager shortlist, anything that I said in my defence would indirectly implicate the phantom. I most certainly did not “go for him” in any big way. And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait. It is perhaps one of the few right decisions that I have made in this game up until now, and it possibly means that suspicion may not be focused on me today quite as much as the Werewolves would have liked (or at least I hope so).

Now, I appreciate that what I have said largely assumes my own innocence and that there will be those amongst the remaining innocent Villagers who do not necessarily accept that I am innocent. But I would ask you to review everything that happened yesterday with an open mind and tell me that it does not make sense as a perfect Werewolfian strategy. And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Based on the above, I now have a pretty good idea of who two of the Werewolves are and strong suspicions as to the identity of the third. But, before naming any names myself, I would be interested to hear what the other Villagers have to say.

[Kuruharan]

He's at it again.

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game. And as I said the other DAY, he was edging toward hanging the phantom. I suggested we should do something else just on general principle.

Guess what, he was wrong again.

And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait.

But you did take the bait. You voted for him.;)

And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Go ahead and lynch me then. We have one last bit of margin for error before we hit critical mass. Snapping my head off should put some sense into the others (although you probably do still have those hooks through people's jaws).

I'll have more later this afternoon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nice to see that you are as open minded as ever, Kuru. :p ;)

But you did take the bait. You voted for him.Did you read what I said? In my position, anyone would have voted the way that I did, whether they were a Werewolf or an innocent Villager. My vote for the phantom establishes nothing. As I said, I would have preferred to have voted for someone else, but I wasn't given that opportunity, thanks to the Werewolves' stage management of yesterday's proceedings.

Go ahead and lynch me then.I didn't name any names ...

Edit: To clarify, by not taking the bait, I meant not going all out against the phantom as a knee-jerk reaction to the Werewolves' two Villager shortlist.

Edit 2: I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game. So have you, actually ...

[Holbytlass]

I know I suggested the short-list of Phantom and SaucepanMan (post 190).
I was stating the obvious because at least one, if not both, are high on everyone's suspect list. So it just stood to reason to vote on these two.
It forced those of us (myself included) to not 'chicken-out' as Kuru put it,
and for information's sake gave the village a clearer view on where people stood.

Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.
I would expect SaucepanMan to do the same today. He is still high on my list and Estel.

It is a crying shame we lost our guardian. But at least we know she saved one of us and we are still dealing with 3 wolves not 4.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?

All right, so we’ve lynched another innocent. I wish we hadn’t but I still think that The Phantom was a better choice than The Saucepan Man insofar as we will have the benefit of his more penetrating (and understandable) posts as we close in on the wolves. Because all evidence to the contrary I do believe that we can begin to close in on the fiends, finally.

It’s become clear to me, at least, that there are currently two kinds of people in the village: the verbose and the quiet. In the verbose camp we have myself, Sauce, Estel, mormegil, and Kuruharan. I daresay that at the moment, these are also the people who are drawing, and who will draw, the most suspicion. In the quiet camp we have Holbytlass, Oddwen, Shelob and Azaelia. These villagers are coming under the least suspicion. (I would have put Firefoot in this list but with her gone she is no longer on any list but that of brave innocents.)

Now, the first thing I’d like to point out about these lists is that they represent a gender split: talkative, blabbing, blathering and loudmouthed men on the one side, and more guarded, careful, thoughtful women on the other. The second thing I’d like to say is that men, I think we’re in a lot of trouble…

Here’s my theory…

If I were a wolf, I would be faced with two options in the early rounds of voting: speak out vocally and try to get an innocent hanged or duck for cover and wait for the villagers to lynch one another. To this point, I had no way of assessing which strategy might be the one adopted by the current crop of wolves, but after yesterday’s fireworks I think that we have some fuzzy beasts of the more quiet variety. Not only did we kill the most verbose and outspoken member of the loudmouthed male camp only to discover that he was an innocent, but the other members of that club worked very very hard to try and get other members of that camp strung up. Seems to me that if there is more than one wolf in this group, this is a very foolish way to behave. While this was going on, the quieter, more thoughtful (and more feminine) members of the village did what they had been doing all along and sat back while the men tore at one another. To be sure, they did vote, but they were not really active in the debate – nor did they need to be, what with the loudmouths doing such a good job of stringing up yet another innocent.

So my attention is now firmly shifting to those other members of the village. In particular I’m taking a much closer look at their voting records….

Holbytlass, Oddwen and Shelob have spread their votes around. In the first two rounds they never voted for the same name: only in the third round did both did Oddwen and Holbytlass vote together, and this time against Saucy – this seems suspicious to me, as it would appear that they wanted to keep TP around: which makes sense as he was one of the loudest mouths and was haranguing everyone with his theories in which the wolves were other loudmouths. In all three rounds the only one of these three to cast a vote against another was Oddwen[b] against [b]Holbytlass. As that is the only vote Holby has ever received, and no-one has really argued terribly hotly for her to be hanged, that would not really be a dangerous thing to do. Particularly in the second round when the loudmouths (myself included) really took charge and began going after one another.

More evidence against them: Firefoot is dead – she was the logical choice for this group to pick and believe me or not but I had decided that if she were the one to go, I would be convinced that my theory is correct. She had the least suspicion against her, but she was voting with the loudmouths on each round (against me in the first round, Sono in the second and TP in the third). Killing her is a good way of getting rid of an innocent without tipping their hands (paws) insofar as she has never accused them so it would not look like retribution. More importantly it allows them to keep the real loudmouths alive. If I were a smart, quiet, wolf, I would never want to see Kuru, SpM, TORE or me dead, insofar as they are doing a very good job of killing off each other and giving me a free ride. I would have learned from Azaeilia’s example that one can be utterly invisible and survive quite nicely.

My final piece of evidence is the attempt to frame me with the first werewolf killing. That was obviously designed to get the loudmouths going against one another. TGWBS and I were probably the two most vocal, and the other loudmouths soon joined in. The frame-up was never meant to work, insofar as getting me hanged, it was just meant to stir the pot. And stir it did.

So the obvious question is: how can I explain this sudden turn in my thinking? To this point I’ve been gunning for loudmouths myself and here I am now, suddenly making a wolfish-looking switch. I can only say that while I had my suspicions of this yesterday, I did not have nearly as much reason to follow those as I did my arguments against TP. But three things happened to convince me that I’ve been wrong all along:

1) TP was innocent

2) The loudmouths spent all their energy accusing each other; a stupid thing for werewolves to do

3) Firefoot was killed

I did not want to float this theory yesterday as it is based on the theory that the wolves are hiding: to let them know that I was looking at them before I was sure of who they were would have been foolish.

So that’s were I am at now. And this time, Kuru, I am willing to be as certain as you would like in my assertions. At least two of Oddwen, Holbytlass and Shelob are wolves. For my money, the best bets are Oddwen and Holbytlass.

[mormegil]

Wow! The phantom was innocent. I now have a lot of self-doubt about my ability to select a guilty person. I was so convinced since day 1 that I think I let my pride blind me into not looking at many other options. Though I did come very close to voting for SpM--so you're efforts weren't in vain Kuru. Though I'm still not 100% convinced of his guilt either.

I would like to hear some arguements and opinions of those who have remained a bit more reserved so all really except myself, SpM and Kuru. I know that Fordim and TORE have spoken some but I would really like to hear what you have to think now. Not to say I don't want to hear from the others I just know their current arguements.

I know that I am probably top on people's suspicion list and I accept that and would suspect me if I were in your shoes. I do point out that Firefoot suspected him a great deal as well. Look at my arguements against him and see if there is not at least a little merit in them. My hope and prayer is that we catch a wolf tonight to help even out the numbers a bit.

I await the response of those I have requested.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am glad that not all the Villagers' minds are as closed as Kuru's.

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?Not necessarily, my dear Fordim. Clearly, you were the one who first identified the 3 Villager "shortlist". But it would not necessarily have been in the Werewolves' best interests to identify it so publicly and obviously.

I am interested in your theory, Fordim, as I have been troubled by the "quiet ones" too. I am pretty sure that at least one of them is a Werewolf, but my theory tends to suggest two loudmouths and one quiet one.

Interesting that you mention Oddwen's vote for Holbytlass. I said yesterday that I believed that one Werewolf had voted for another at least once, when it would have seemed safe to do so. That would certainly fit the bill. Indeed the only other vote that also fitted the bill was Firefoot's vote for you on the first day, and that was clearly not it.

I will review yesterday's events with your theory in mind.

[Holbytlass]

I thought this was an equal-opportunity village, Fordim! ;)
I do agree that there probably is at least one 'quiet' wolf, but how does Oddwen voting for me make me a wolf? She was suspicious of my defensiveness when I (with others) were threatened with tied-lynchings just because we're not as loud as others. The Phantom had just been lynched and I'm sure some votes were cast because of his rantings that some perceived as a cornered animal. He turned out to be innocent.
I still think you are innocent and I still think this new theory is a good one (even if I am one of your main suspects) because it does remind all of us that the quiet ones need to be thought of as well. I know flattery will get me nowhere, I do mean it genuinely. But that doesn't mean there is not a 'loudmouth' he-wolf out there.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game.

So have you, actually ...

No. We do not know this because not enough people have been willing to put my theory to the test. We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.

[The Saucepan Man]

Given the gravity of the situation, I think that we should all concentrate less on defending ourselves and more in putting forward or developing theories. If we don't find a Werewolf today, we have but one more day to do so and we will then have to find another each day or the village is doomed.

We all know that everyone's words and actions can, in most cases, be interpreted either way. So, unless there is something said about you that you feel is particularly wrong or unfair, try not to waste too much effort in defence. After all, it didn't help the phantom (in fact it might possibly have counted against him) and I, for one, will understand if people do not respond every time that their name is mentioned as a possible suspect.

Names will be named today. It's inevitable. Some of those named will be innocent. So try not to take it too badly if your name is put forward. Accept it as a necessity of the game, and let's (those of us who are innocent) try to work together for once to solve this mystery. The clues must be there by now, so let's find them.

I have work to do now, but I hope to put forward some more ideas later.

[The Only Real Estel]

I have also been wondering as of late if we've been paying to much attention to the SpMs, SoNs, phantoms, Fordims, Estels, Kurus, & morms of the village an not enough to those that seem to be avoiding suspicion almost entirely.

Originally posted by me in an edit, reposting to make sure it is seen:
I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY. I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't something to Kuru's 'marching orders' comment. I know phantom has drawn attention to himself this round, but I don't think he's drawn enough to change an opinion that hopefully was made with some conviction. If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

There's a good chance that phantom is guilty, but if he is innocent & we've let a wolf off the hook (or noose, however you like) again then we've got a major problem on our hands.

It helps that we know the cursed villager has not been converted yet, so we're still only dealing with three werewolves. But we've still got a big problem.

Originally posted by Holbytlass:
Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.

This is interesting. Please let me know which part of phantom's theory you think he supported well enough that it could be possible. The theory didn't work because he used a lot of partial quotes & early defenses - I would protect anyone from being accussed early on because of a 'throw-away' joke anyday, & anywhere. Also, a lot of the things that phantom used would have implicated him also...if you looked at the full quotes. Just read his theory & my response again.

I believed Phantom's innocence also, actually posting a defense of him (that I thought was strong enough to save him); or at least I believed him to the point that I wanted to have another day or so to review his case again. And note that he suspected I would vote for someone other than SpM when it came down to it - I did not.

I am still very suspicious of SpM. Unfortunately, he knows how to speech innocent speech, whether he is or not, so it is very difficult to decide for sure.

Also, is there something to SoN's parting theory of Fordim & SpM?
A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

As he said, it's is only a 'wild hunch,' and just because he was innocent doesn't make his theories invincible by any means, but a few things that happened did draw my attention towards the pair.

First, I thought that if they were working together, SpM would probably eventually back off & applaud Fordim for trying, but reiterate that there were to many holes to try it (so he wouldn't really be switching stances). Fordim would than back of his plan & the two would become allies again. This has pretty much happened (though I will readily admit that it might be by innocent intentions), but I was also a little bit suprised by SpM's reasoning for laying off of Fordy.

In post #51 SpM said:
I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened.

And then in post #124 SpM says:
The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him.

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan. :confused:

Again, this may be all a bunch of nothing, but I found it strange, & it won't get out of my head...

[The Saucepan Man]

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan. I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ;) ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour. Both Werewolves and innocents will have said and done different things at different times. But we at least know what the Werewolves' objective is, and we should be able to look at the sum total of all has happened so far and identify patterns that are indiciative of Werewolf behaviour. That's what I mean when I talk about putting forward and developing theories.

In this regard, I will make one point that may be trite, but is nevertheless worth bearing in mind. The Werewolves will have been concentrating on getting those innocents who are most likely to be suspected lynched during the day and killing those who are the greatest threat to them at night (for example those who are unlikely to be lynched or who are getting close to the truth). In most cases, they will have been doing so subtly (which is why Fordim's theory has appeal), but there are probably times when they will have been doing this more overtly, when they felt it safe to do so. We should be able to spot these kinds of patterns by now, so let's try.

As I said, I have not got much time to spend reviewing previous events and devleoping theories right now, but I will be concentrating on doing so later.

[mormegil]

Just to consolidate and help in our thought I would like to include these lists. They are who voted for and were sucessful in lynching our 3 innocents

Evisse
Shelob
SpM
Kuru
the phantom
TORE


SoN
SpM
Firefoot
the phantom
holbytlass
Fordim
TORE


The phantom
Azaelia
Mormegil
Fordim
Firefoot
Shelob
SpM

Obviously nothing concrete can be gleaned from this but I think we can find at least one wolf who has voted for these two or more times.

That would point to:
Shelob
SpM
TORE
Fordim

Again it might not mean anything because the phantom and Firefoot would qualify as well, but it may be helpful therefore I set it forward.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The one thing I would take from your very good list morm is that it does seem to indicate that Shelob is more likely to be innocent than Holby and Oddwen insofar as it is in a wolf's best interest not to vote for an innocent who gets lynched, if that means you will come under suspicion (which, so far in this game, it has). That is, the best way to hide is to vote for the 'runner-up' or some other person who looks like a credible candidate for lynching, but who is never actually lynched.

Which is why I find the voting pattern for Holby and Oddwen so interesting...for each of them, two of the three people they've voted for are still alive: they've both voted for SpM, who is still to many minds the most suspect; as for their other votes, they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against Azaeilia (by Holby) or Holby (by Oddwen).

For the record, Azaeilia and Shelob both voted for TP: could one of them be a wolf, spreading her own vote to someone else to avoid too clear a pattern? Or to subtly force a tie or direct the vote the way they wanted it to go....?

[The Saucepan Man]

Thank you for those lists, mormegil. :)

However, by themselves, they do not tell us much (and that's not just because I appear on all three ;) ). We need also to look at what time people voted and, most importantly, what the state of voting was when they voted. And that applies to all votes, not just those cast for known innocents. It will be instructive, for example, if someone who appears on two of your lists voted for someone else on the remaining day, but at a stage when it was pretty clear anyway that the eventual lynch victim would be lynched anyway.

What we need to do is consider, when we are looking at a vote or an accusation or a defence of another Villager is whether, given what we know now, that was something that a Werewolf would have done.

I also think that we need to bear in mind that, on Night 3, Firefoot guarded someone whom she thought might be innocent and that, having done so, she had a reasonable idea (although not a certainty) throughout Day 3 that this person was innocent.

I am sorry if what I am saying appears to be obvious, but I really think that the six remaining Villagers all need to be thinking very much along the same lines today.

I set out my theory at the beginning of today and indicated that I was pretty sure about the identity of two of the Werewolves. They remain my prime suspects (and you probably have a pretty good idea who they are from what I said). But I am willing to consider other theories and be persuaded and to review my ideas in light of my own further investigations. I hope that everyone else is prepared to do the same. It was a mistake yesterday that we did not do this. We really need to bag a Wolf today if we can, and I think that we can. So, if I see any evidence of closed-mindedness during the first half of today, I shall get very suspicious. And I hope that means that the Werewolves will have to work that little bit harder in trying to disguise themelves.

And Kuru, if you are innocent, I would implore you to keep an open mind and look back through the evidence keeping in mind what we know now. You may still decide to vote for me at the end of the day. But I would prefer that you did so having at least explored other possibilities.

[Oddwen]

Gee, here I thought I was being rather straitforward this time. :rolleyes: You people should meet me if you think I'm quiet here.

they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against... Holby (by Oddwen). I don't think votes are meaningless. If they don't result in their intended purpose, they at least tell something about the voter. This one isn't meaningless - I still don't like the thrashing around that happened when someone mentioned Holby's name, though she has tamed down a bit. Perhaps it's a defence strategy.

Firefoot knew one person who was innocent, perhaps we should look into that. Who did she suspect on day two and would have guarded on night three?

In post #127 she said she leaned towards the innocence of
Fordim
Morm
SpM

She was most vocal about SpM, so would this have been the way she chose?

I have to leave for work now, I'll post more tonight.

Edit: cross-posted with SpM

[mormegil]

One thing that has been stirring in my finite little mind is Holbytlass's vote for Azaelia. I know she gave a defense for it but something doesn't sit right with me. I will post an edit when I find those quotes.


Post 66
Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.
My approach has been this, there are two who have said nothing Oddwen and Azaleia. And so, by the peril of numbers again, 3 out of 5 flips of a coin.....

++azaleia
I'm sure I'll be on someone's short list.

Her defense
post 126
I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM. I DID get all bothered about being called a wolf on the basis of my being silent. It WAS hipocritical of me. I admit I took the easy (and cowardly) way out of yesterday's vote. I didn't hide that fact, I said it was a coin-flip.
I suppose my trying to be diplomatic has brought suspicion on me. I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent.

Could be true but I think it is worth remembering.

[The Saucepan Man]

She was most vocal about SpM, so would this have been the way she chose?Well, whoever she chose to guard is innocent because she protected them from the Werewolves' fangs. But, much as I would like to say it was me, I don't think that it was. I was, at that time, not likely to be attacked by the Werewolves because I was a prime lynching suspect for the next day. Firefoot would have figured that out and so probably protected someone else.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another without removing a name from the list of "soon to be lynched" -- it was clear that though I was (and still am) garnering some no small amount of suspicion, the next to go was going to be either TP or SpM, with an outside chance of it being Kuru.

I'm not sure what this can tell us, however. If you believe it then I suppose that would be nice for me since it would demonstrate my innocence for all to see without my neck getting stretched.

But then again, I'm probably entirely wrong.... :p ;)

[Kuruharan]

Nice to see that you are as open minded as ever, Kuru.
-The Saucepan Man post #271

-and-

I am glad that not all the Villagers' minds are as closed as Kuru's.
-The Saucepan Man post #275

-and-

changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on
-The Saucepan Man post #280

Evidently, today’s strategy to discredit me is “Kuruharan is closed minded.”

I didn't name any names ...

-The Saucepan Man post #271

The implication was pretty thick in the air.

Anyway…

I don’t disagree with Fordim’s reasoning in post #273.

Especially this part…

I think that we have some fuzzy beasts of the more quiet variety.

I think nothing is more likely. However, I also find something said by Holbytlass to be important as well.

But that doesn't mean there is not a 'loudmouth' he-wolf out there.

I think this is pretty likely too. It is probably a mix.

Now, before I say anything else (and get accused of being closed-minded again) I’d like to ask Fordim to explain why he thinks we should go after the quiet ones first rather than the loud ones?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I’d like to ask Fordim to explain why he thinks we should go after the quiet ones first rather than the loud ones?

Simply because I am convinced we have a better shot at bagging a Wolf. At this moment, I am convinced that at least two of the following are Wolves:

Oddwen
Holbytlass
Shelob
Azaielia

Even without working to narrow it down a bit more, that gives me a 50/50 chance of bagging a fuzzy.

On the other hand, I can't imagine that there is any more than one Wolf among:

TORE
mormegil
Saucepan
Kuruharan

And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were no wolves on this list! So that gives me, at best, a one in four chance of getting it right.

So I suppose, as always, it comes back to the numbers for me: as far as I am concerned this DAY, I am twice as likely to get a Wolf from among the quiets than I am from among the loudmouths (50% versus 25%).

[Holbytlass]

Fordim, you are not on either list, does this make you the 'middle' wolf? ;)
One thing though, lore-master, by your arguments, it could work the other way,too.
What if 2 or more of the 'loud-talkers' are wolves? The middle people's death, like Firefoot or TGWBS, would be beneficial to the loud wolves,also. And there were plenty of innocent loud-talkers to get lynched. Now that the 'loud' side is dwindling down, you have switched gears, perhaps to take the focus off of you and other loud wolves. While I still think you are right that there is a quiet wolf, I think you are smart enough to convince others to focus on the quiet group and convince everyone there is more than one 'quiet' wolf and lynch us till that wolf is found and of course killing more innocents. Not a big deal, there must always be a sacrificial wolf for the good of the team.

[Kuruharan]

I wish we hadn’t but I still think that The Phantom was a better choice than The Saucepan Man insofar as we will have the benefit of his more penetrating (and understandable) posts as we close in on the wolves.
-Fordim post #273

You seem convinced of his innocence. Why? His opinions are only of value if he is innocent and even if he is innocent he has been grievously wrong a number of times. Why are you so unwilling to consider the possibility of his guilt? You voted against him on the first day and have done everything possible to avoid it ever since. Estel’s theory becomes more appealing.

Simply because I am convinced we have a better shot at bagging a Wolf. At this moment, I am convinced that at least two of the following are Wolves:

Oddwen
Holbytlass
Shelob
Azaielia

Even without working to narrow it down a bit more, that gives me a 50/50 chance of bagging a fuzzy.
-Fordim post #289

Hmm…so you say. However, I’ve re-read posts #273 and #282 and the feeling I get from them is hesitancy. (I know this must come as a shock to you). Particularly in post #282 I find your reasoning to be faulty because there is no way the werewolves could guarantee voting for the runners up everytime. This is particularly true if the werewolves try to split their votes to cover themselves.

I’m not at all disagreeing that there is probably at least one wolf in that group but I find your picking out Holbytlass and Oddwen from that group to be questionable.

On the other hand, I can't imagine that there is any more than one Wolf among:

TORE
mormegil
Saucepan
Kuruharan

And you too for all we know. I’m not so sure about this idea.

And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were no wolves on this list!

I find this very difficult to swallow. If we’d played about 20 games then I’d find this more credible. As it stands, I'm not going to base what may be the last day's voting on this (only a one in twenty chance of a random sample being screwy, in this case all loud males vs. all quiet females).

[mormegil]

I am putting forth my list (yet another mormegil list) of where my suspion lies. It is in order. I don't think I'll give a great deal of explination currently but mainly I want to get it out there and hopefully others will too so we can see what some of you are thinking.

1. Azaelia of Willowbotton
2. The Only Real Estel
3. Holbytlass
4. Kuruharan
5. Oddwen
6. The Saucepan Man
7. Shelob
8. Fordim
9. Mormegil

Though this is by no means a static list I just wanted to lay it down for all to see. I feel that there is a lot of wiggle room between number 4 to 7 and 8 to a lesser degree. Again that's not to say that 1 to 3 are set and that's who I'm voting for they could definately change come voting time.

[Kuruharan]

I don't think I'll give a great deal of explination currently but mainly I want to get it out there and hopefully others will too so we can see what some of you are thinking.

Why? There seems to be little reason to hold back.

(EDIT: I miscounted on how many people were left.)

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm currently in the middle of reviewing the entire thread, so bear with me.

One question occurred to me from the recent discussions, though:

As it stands, I'm not going to base what may be the last day's voting on this ...Why might it be the last day's voting? Even if we lynch an innocent today and another dies in the night, there will be 5 Villagers and 4 Werewolves tomorrow.

And, by the way, I don't have a strategy to discredit you. You are one of my susepcts, yes, but I have far from made up my mind for today. You cannot deny that, for over a day now, you have been rather single-minded in directing your comments. At this stage I don't think that we can afford to be single minded, not during the first part of the day anyway. Surely it is better to review the possibilities with an open mind and then come to a conclusion.

[Kuruharan]

Why might it be the last day's voting

Because you started typing before I edited silly. ;) :p

You cannot deny that, for over a day now, you have been rather single-minded in directing your comments.

In spite of Fordim's certainty paranoia, this actually speaks in my favor. At the very least it argues that my theory should be tested. I've not changed my argument since DAY TWO, even at considerable risk to myself (risk that I welcomed because it would test what I said).

At this stage I don't think that we can afford to be single minded, not during the first part of the day anyway. Surely it is better to review the possibilities with an open mind and then come to a conclusion.

As I noted above, I think my consistency in arguing this says that my theory should be put to the test.

I'm not afraid to be wrong. If you play this enough it is simply inevitable that at some point you will be hilariously and spectacularly wrong. When that happens you have a good laugh at yourself when everything is over (along with everybody else, no doubt) and that is that. However, when you are "in the village", if you are convinced of something it is best to argue for it as best you know how. What benefit is it to you or anybody else to be timid about it? The people who continually try to deflect you likely have something to hide. The possibility of uncovering them alone makes it worth trying if somebody is adamant about something.

[The Only Real Estel]

I am, like SpM, trying to review the thread right now but I do have a few things to say in response to some of the things that have been voiced lately.

Originally posted by Fordim"
At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another

Although I believe I did include the phrase 'if I am not killed during the night' in two of my earlier posts, I stopped that because I began to realize a simple fact - it would take an incredibly stupid werewolf to waste a kill on me during the night. In fact, I don't think that any werewolf would waste a kill on any of the 'loudmouths,' we have all been hanging some suspicions out there about eachother, & if you draw on common sense it would be wise for the wolves to leave those innocents that are suspicous of eachother alive so that they have targets during the DAY. Also, I think the 'loudmouths' are pointing enough fingers at one another as it is, perhaps for good reason, perhaps not.

Originally posted by Morm:
2. The Only Real Estel
Again that's not to say that 1 to 3 are set and that's who I'm voting for they could definately change come voting time

I hope so. :eek: If you've heard any especially compelling evidence against me, then please, spell it out for me & I'll give you my reasonings behind what is in question. It's so much easier to give a good defense when you know you're defending good intentions & not having to stretch to cover your tracks.

Originally posted by Kuru (questioning Fordim about his defenses of SpM):
You seem convinced of his innocence. Why? His opinions are only of value if he is innocent and even if he is innocent he has been grievously wrong a number of times. Why are you so unwilling to consider the possibility of his guilt? You voted against him on the first day and have done everything possible to avoid it ever since. Estel’s theory becomes more appealing

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim. And it is actually SoN's theory (someone that we know was innocent, for what that's worth), I just added a few things that I thought spoke to his theory.

Originally posted by Kuru:
I've not changed my argument since DAY TWO, even at considerable risk to myself (risk that I welcomed because it would test what I said).

As I noted above, I think my consistency in arguing this says that my theory should be put to the test.


He does have a good point here. I am not going to condemn Saucey solely because he has voted for three innocents, but it does bear watching. And I think perhaps Kuru has earned the right to have his theory tried out. Besides, I am not nearly convinced of SpM's innocence, and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

Originally posted by Estel:
It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Originally posted by SpM:
I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour.

Of course changing your mind & theories is a part of the game. But it just didn't seem like there was all that much explanation for it, not to me at least. And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.

[Kuruharan]

I think what I want to say about Fordim’s theory is “What is the nature of the evidence?”

For this we have…

A) Holbytlass and Oddwen have only voted the same way once.
B) That Oddwen voted against Holbytlass.
C) That Fordim was to be the fall guy of the first NIGHT’s slaying.
-taken from post #273

D) That Holbytlass and Oddwen have usually voted for people who are still alive.
-taken from post #282

E) We have a better chance of getting a wolf by following Fordim’s plan if we accept his numbers.
-taken from post #289

Now I already questioned (D) by pointing out that there is no way the werewolves could guarantee that they’d always be voting for people who would survive even if they were splitting their votes. There is no particular reason to suspect Oddwen and Holbytlass on this count any more than anyone else.

A) is a tenuous point. Of course, it is not intended to be more than one point in the pattern, but I’ll say now this is hardly compelling.

B) is an argument that could as easily be used against Fordim as it relates to Saucepan Man since Fordim voted against Saucepan Man on DAY ONE.

C) this is probably not in dispute (unless one thinks we were meant to outthink ourselves), but this could mean any number of things.

E) seems to me as if Fordim is trying to play a numbers game based on nothing more than hope and gut instinct.

I’m not saying any of this to deny that there might be merit in what Fordim says. I am saying this to show that perhaps this is not the best theory that we want to act on at this critical juncture.

Now,

Here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392519&postcount=230) is a post that stretched to four pages in Word of evidence against The Saucepan Man. (Yes, I was tempted to repost the whole thing to make sure the villagers in question who need to read it would, but I decided to have confidence in them that they would click the link and reread it for themselves). This is not gut-instinct and numbers games. These are the actual things that The Saucepan Man has said and done and I believe they all corroborate my assertion against him. And anyone who thinks that I took him out of context, I encourage you to read the original posts themselves and see. If you think I took him out of context at some point, ask me about it and I'll try to explain (again) what I think it shows. I've got nothing to hide here.

And notice, he still has not really confessed to his role in Evisse's death. He certainly stopped berating me for it, but he never explained why he mentioned her name three (that's three) times before I ever mentioned her and then afterwards screeched to the heavens (and anybody else listening) that I was the one responsible for dragging him (kicking and screaming) into voting for Evisse. After I call him on it he tries to bury the matter.

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor. If the Saucepan Man was innocent, the first thing the werewolves would want to do would be to kill me to show that I was innocent hoping that this would drive everyone into hanging Saucepan since I'd have suddenly become something of a martyr. This hasn't happened. I submit that the reason for my still being alive is that my death would be a disaster for the werewolves because it would show that I've been telling the truth. Notice how The Saucepan Man has completely cooled on having me lynched. He's afraid of what would come out if I were.

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed. I can also say that being inflexible is no way to be a werewolf. "Inflexible" is probably one of the kinder words that Fordim and Saucepan could throw at me (and probably would like to). Saucepan, on the other hand, has been as flexible and dodgy as one could possibly please.

[mormegil]

Kuru, I have a specefic question for you. It's obvious that SpM is your prime suspect and that you are certain in your knowledge. I would like to know who would be the other two. I ask this to see if it makes sense to something that I have working in my mind right now. I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions. I would like to know who you have so I can check it out with my theory.

[Kuruharan]

Before I answer mormegil's question, there is one other thing I'd like to say.

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I. While the phantom did not encourage his lynching, I have repeatedly encouraged mine because I have a point to prove. I must also note in fairness that Evisse did not go down too tamely either. This seems to me to be the natural reaction to someone falsely accused. A villager falsely accused is naturally going to think that the person accusing them is a werewolf, and try to expose them as such. The Saucepan Man, on the other hand, has been delicately tiptoeing around the possibility of his innocence. He first started accusing me and when I started turning on him he danced about with me a bit and then tried to change the subject and eventually convinced sufficient people to hang Son of Numenor. He's not been particularly vocal against me ever since, even though if anything I've gotten louder against him. If he were innocent he should be eager to either be hung himself or to get me hanged and clear his name and hopefully uncover a werewolf.

Now,

I would like to know who would be the other two

That is a slightly more difficult question. I freely admit that I was genuinely highly suspicious of Firefoot because Saucepan seemed to be bouncing off of her to some extent and she voted against the phantom for little good reason that I could see. However, obviously this morning changed my thinking. Ever since then I've become ever more suspicious of Fordim. I started off being highly suspicious of him. Then I became pretty convinced that he was innocent. Now I'm back to suspecting him again. (How's that for being open-minded?) Estel's theory has been working on my brain. I also note that this numbers game Fordim wants to try seems to be providing more justification for him to hang more innocents. See how well it works for the werewolves. Hang somebody off that list of four he provided, which he would probably kindly narrow to two. When that person proves to be innocent he can say, "Oops, I'm terribly sorry. However, it was a 50/50 chance. Now we know for certain that the werewolf must be ------." Then -------, who is innocent, is then hung because Fordim is very smart and the ever so innocent Saucepan Man supports this. Viola! Werewolves Victorious yet again.

Then there is his reluctance to go against Saucepan, but that probably is self-evident.;)

However, I'm not really certain about all of this. Not like I am of Saucepan. But it is possible and I've been getting ever more suspicious.

For the third, I'm not sure at all. I'm more concerned about finally getting a decisive choice in this Saucepan issue. I'm kind of figuring that I'll worry about the third when the time comes if I'm still around. Certainly, if Saucepan proves to be a werewolf that will probably aid in the choice considerably (as well as providing the villagers with a few more "outs").

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim.

“Support” is not the word I would use; I think that we are merely heading in parallel directions. Why this might be I don’t know. If you are asking me for proof of Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).

By way of answer then…there are three possibilities:

1) Sauce is a stupid wolf. This would explain why he is constantly doing things to bring down suspicion on himself and why he narrowly escaped lynching yesterday. The problem I have with this theory is that Sauce is not stupid. I can’t be any more persuasive than that: he just ain’t.

2) Sauce is a smart wolf. For his behaviour to be that of a smart wolf, it would have to be of benefit to the other wolves. If the other wolves are part of the loudmouths, then his behaviour is not helpful to them, as he is constantly drawing attention to the loudmouthed camp (by responding to Kuru’s clear obsession with lynching him, for example) which would render him a stupid wolf, which I don’t find likely (see above). If he is a smart wolf, then, he would have to be the only loudmouthed wolf, providing cover for the quiet wolves, distracting our attention and willingly putting himself in harm’s way to give them cover.

3) Sauce is innocent.

Because I don’t find possibility number one probable, I won’t vote for him on that basis.

Because I won’t vote for an innocent, I won’t vote for him on the basis of possibility number three.

Because possibility number two involves Sauce as the lone loudmouthed wolf, with the other two hiding amongst the quiet wolves, I would rather go after the quiet wolves where I have a greater chance of nabbing a fuzzy beast than by flailing around madly amongst the loudmouthed wolves. This may look paradoxical insofar as I am saying I’d rather take my pick of 2 amongst 4 than 1 amongst 1 (that is, my choice is between, on the one hand, two of Oddwen, Azaeilia, Holbytlass and Shelob and, on the other, only one of Saucy). But the above possibilities do not hold to Saucy alone, but to all the loudmouths. So my choice is not 1 amongst 1 but 1 amongst 4 (Kuru, TORE, Sauce, morm: and yes I know I’m not in that list because I’m obviously not going to vote for myself…!!).

So you see, I have no great faith in Sauce’s innocence; nor do I have any great faith in the innocence of any of the loudmouths (except myself): but I do know that there is at most one smart wolf in that group of four and at least two very smart wolves in the other, quieter group of four – and, yes, I still believe that it is entirely possible that all three of the monsters are of the quiet variety.

At any event, this will be my last chance to post until tomorrow morning, when I will only be able to get on again briefly at around 8 EDT before I shall be tied up again for the rest of the day, so it looks like I shall have to review all new posts at that time and then cast what will likely be among the first votes. All I can say is that I have yet to see any of the quiet villagers do or say anything to dispel my suspicions about them. To the loudmouthed villagers I will say this:

We’ve been carrying on this way for the length of the game and have yet to bag a wolf. Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way. In either case, I would suggest that the time has come to shift our focus elsewhere. No matter where the wolves may be, keeping on as we have been is clearly only to their benefit.

[Kuruharan]

If you are asking me for proof of Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).

Then let's find out! That is the whole point!

Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way.

...or we are flatly refusing to finish our lines of enquiry! What is so wrong about testing my theory? Even if you think there might be only one loud wolf, don't you think it might be worthwhile to try this line of reasoning rather than wimping out and going someplace else and avoiding (if you are innocent) what you may perceive as a hard choice? Is is not as if you won't have another chance to test your theory even if I am wrong.

I hope the above post shows why I am growing increasingly suspicious of Fordim. He seems more intent on playing his numbers game than actually looking at the evidence and making a choice. That way he can appear to be innocent and say it was "just the odds."

However, I am in no way encouraging that Fordim be lynched tonight. My target is Saucepan Man. I felt the need to point out the problems in Fordim's reasoning.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have reviewed the entire thread and shall share my conclusions.

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length. I have little time, and more important things to say. My posts are there for all to see and I am happy to stand by them. Before moving on, though, I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN. In fact, I think that I have been fairly forthright about this. It is the only real evidence against me. The rest is pure speculation or, at worst (for me), statements that can be taken one way or the other. And, if we are to condemn people for having wrongly accused or voted against innocents, then we should look at everyone who has strongly accused or voted against not only Evisse and SoN, but also the phantom and Firefoot. Which is just about the entire village.

Now to more important matters.

First off, I remain pretty sure that Fordim is innocent. I did begin to doubt him again overnight, given that he outlined the "shortlist" of the phantom, The Only Real Estel and me fairly early on yesterday. But, as I have said, he did it too obviously for me to really set much store by that. There are others that did it far more subtly. Also, Firefoot effectively defended three people on a number of occasions yesterday by indicating that she found them less suspicious of others. They were Fordim, The Only Real Estel and me. I believe that Fordim was the beneficiary of Firefoot's Guardinaship on NIGHT 2 because (1) she already suspected him as being innocent, (2) he would have been an obvious choice for a Werewolf assault, and (3) because, on DAY 3, she not only defended him but echoed his reasoning in her own posts. I think that she felt that she could probably trust him.

But who is guilty?

I was fully prepared to find some evidence to dispel my suspicions over Kuruharan. I have found none. And now his determination not to consider any possibility other than that he is right and his insistence, verging on the evangelical, that I am a Werewolf and should be lynched (even though I have, as he says, gone easy on him in recent times) confirms my suspicions. I am convinced that Kuruharan is a Werewolf.

I don't think that anyone has cast doubts in mormegil's direction yet, not serious ones anyway. Well, I am about to.

But I am getting ahead of myself. Here's what I believe has happened so far.

On DAY 1, mormegil mentioned fairly early on that he suspected SoN and the phantom (both known innocents). He settled on the phantom, and pretty much argued for the phantom to be lynched from then on up to the end of DAY 3. Kuru, meanwhile, stayed fairly quiet for the first half of the day, posting every so often, but remaining non-committal and saying little of help to the village. I think that the Werewolves had identified their first victims as the phantom, Fordim and me, and perhaps Kuru was planning on gunning for Fordim or me on DAY 1. But when the opportunity presented itself to have Evisse lynched (as a result of Shelob's vote and my speculation), he took it. He was the first to point out the "hedging" elements in her posts and made out that these seemed to implicate her. In fact, I think that (knowing her to be innocent, which I did not), he cottoned on to the fact that she might be the Seer. After all, he's not stupid, our Kuru. They could not be sure, though, so mormegil voted for the phantom, and was probably quite please to see that both Fordim and I had attracted a vote each too by that stage. Kuruharan's vote for Evisse gave her 3 votes to tie with the phantom at that stage and, with Fordim and I there too, the Werewolves must have been fairly happy at that point. The voting then went against Evisse, and she was the one lynched.

DAY 2 opened with mormegil bringing up the fact that TGWBS's death overnight implicated Fordim. He tried to make out that this was not the way that it should necessarily be seen, but he put the idea in everyone's heads. Shortly afterwards, Kuru seized on what he thought were inopportune words by Fordim in order to try and implicate him. But the two of them spent most of the day between them trying to implicate the phantom and I. Mormegil carried on with his accusations against the phantom, while it did not take long for Kuru to start stirring up suspicion against me.

One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death. He stepped up a gear when I cast suspicion on him, and again when Firefoot indicated her doubts about him. As both Oddwen and I pointed out, it was strange for him to behave like this when it was only Firefoot and I accusing him. I think that this is one of the few mistakes that he has made, but he got away with it.

I should note that, on DAY 2, mormegil and Kuru mildly pointed the finger at each other, but only mometarily and they have not otherwise come close to making any serious accusations against each other.

By the end of DAY 2, with SoN lynched, the phantom and I (the Werewolves' two chosen targets for DAY 2) both look likely suspects. The phantom because of the nature of his posts and me because I led the voting against SoN. It seemed to them that they had an opportunity to try to limit the voting to two or three innocent Villagers, thus guaranteeing that at least one innocent would be lynched (and possibly two) and that the Werewolves would be safe. As I have already indicated in my first post today, they succeeded in doing so. They decided, I believe, that one of them would go against me (the more likely suspect), while the other two would go against the phantom. They also concluded that the phantom and I would try to implicate each other. The phantom fell for that. I did not (although I had no option but to vote for him in the end).

So, on DAY 3, in his first post, mormegil put the phantom, Fordim, Firefoot and I firmly on the "shortlist", on the basis of our votes for SoN. Two on that list are known innocents, and I know one and believe the other to be innocent. Since the phantom and I were the most suspicious at that stage, they figured that we would become the centre of attention, and both of them spent the rest of the day encouraging the other Villagers to vote against one or other of us. Mormegil stubbornly ploughed his phantom furrow, while Kuruharan took great glee in making long posts against me setting out his "evidence" (see above). At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom, perhaps further seeking to implant in people's minds that there was really no other choice. But he voted against the phantom - in a good piece of timing I might add, since it tied the phantom and I on two votes. Perhaps they would get their double lynching after all. Although I suspect that mormegil was probably right when he said that he had calculated that I would probably survive and they figured that this would be the better result for the Wolves, since Kuru would have been heavily implicated if I had been lynched, whereas morm had attracted very little attention up to then.

A few more things to be said about DAY 3. Kuruharan implicated Firefoot and Shelob as my "cronies". Well, we know that Firefoot was innocent and, on this basis, I believe that Shelob may well be too.

Also, in a modestly phrased, but actually quite arrogant, post (#188, mormegil stated:


I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious.The Werewolves knew that Firefoot had been successful on NIGHT 3 and that, if Firefoot was killed on NIGHT 4, we would be looking to establish who it was that she had protected. I think that mormegil was subtly trying to earn himself a little capital (as Kuru calls it) here.

Of course, one person is missing from the above summary of events. And that is our third Werewolf. This is almost certainly one of the "quiet" members of the Village. Personally, I suspect Holbytlass because she referred to the 2 Villager shortlist fairly early on on DAY 3 and questioned whether there were any other suspects. I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch. I remain, however, uncertain about the identity of the third Werewolf.

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today (as I am more certain of him than I am of mormegil).

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I shall have time to review comments tomorrow, but I shall be at work, so I can't post too much. But, unless I see compelling evidence as to why I should vote for soemone else, I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

(Apologies for the length :rolleyes: )

[The Only Real Estel]

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies, but I cannot reply now. However, I will no doubt be kept awake until late tonight thinking about this nasty business, 'facts', & what it all means...I hope to post at least once early morning before posting a vote (which I think has to be in by 9:30 am or so central time).

[Kuruharan]

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length.

Because you can't.

I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN.

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today

-and-

I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

Good.

We are finally getting down to business.

Perhaps your buddies have given you up for lost after today. Although on the other hand it is probably pretty likely you'd be able to wriggle out of the unpleasantness that would ensue. No doubt you'll pull out the whole "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine again.

Even so, far be it from me to say anything to get myself out of the noose. I'll take it. It might be the village's last chance to see sense before it is too late.

The rest of your post, even the parts that argue against me, does not particularly concern me one way or the other. Obviously mormegil will have to speak up in his own defense if he chooses. But there is one thing.

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I certainly encourage everyone to vote against me if they think this tends to prove my guilt. However, I would ask them to bear in mind that this may be an expression of Saucepan's own hopes that he is attempting to put on me.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

Estel:

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies

If only we could hear from some of the other villagers. Most of them seem to have vanished completely.

[mormegil]

Well I thank The Saucepan Man for that post. It has helped me to decide who I am voting for. I have been vacillating on my decision today because I really didn't know for certain who was a wolf or not. As I stated I was so certain that the phantom was a wolf that I pretty much blinded myself on all others. I saw a number of things that have made me more certain that SpM is our wolf.

SpM
One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death

The first thing that I thought of when I read this is the old saying "the best defense is a good offense." Well I believe that is the SpM has done. I know that this may appear to be a knee-jerk reaction but I have suspected SpM for sometime now.

I should note that, on DAY 2, mormegil and Kuru mildly pointed the finger at each other, but only mometarily and they have not otherwise come close to making any serious accusations against each other.

It should also be noted that I have been outspoken on the phantom but have mildly pointed the finger at most everybody.

At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom

To this I can only say that I truly did waver and I spend about 20 to 30 minutes pacing before I vote because I truly did consider voting you that night and rue that I did not. The score would now be different. I didn't that night for one main reason and that is in Kuru's attack on you, one of his main points was that you kept putting the blame for Evisse's death on him and didn't take ownership of it. I believed you on this because at the time I was shocked to see that Evisse truly had hedged herself well. I actually think I had cast my vote for the phantom before the whole hedging talk came up. I say this because I remember thinking that if we had retractable votes I may have been convinced of Evisse at the time. Obviously I would have been wrong. But that is why I thought that maybe you were innocent is because Kuru almost convinced me too. Now I can see that Kuru played into your hand on that and gave you a good excuse.

My vote tonight will be for

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

[The Saucepan Man]

A few points, in no particular order:

I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch.I meant, of course, Shelob.

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her. It would have been far more logical for me to go for someone like mormegil, who has never really been accused by anyone up to now. If I was a Werewolf, Firefoot is one of the last people that I would have chosen to kill.

I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched.

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I.As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves. To my mind, rigorous self-defence is the sign of either a a Seer/Guardian or a Werewolf. As for the Hunter, well there are time when the Hunter might be willing to die, if they are sufficiently certain that they will bag a Werewolf in the process.

We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.I was wrong about Evisse and SoN. I had no choice in voting for the phantom, but he was not top of my list of suspects. You were wrong about Evisse and Firefoot. And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Quite early on today, mormegil said:

I am putting forth my list (yet another mormegil list) of where my suspion lies. It is in order.I was 6th on the list, below Kuru who was 4th. Then, about 3 hours later:

I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions.Without a word of explanation, mormegil has moved to a position where he is giving great credence to Kuru (who was 4th on his list) and considering me (6th on his list) a prime suspect. It was to be expected, as the two of them clearly want me to be lynched today. So does one other, but they have not yet broken cover. And now that I have made clear my suspicion of him, mormegil is able to come out and vote for me. Either it’s a “knee-jerk” reaction or mormegil planned to vote for me all along (and we all know how much mormegil dislikes knee-jerk reactions).

… and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.I never said that my vote for the phantom establishes my innocence. I said that it establishes nothing. So the evidence against me is no more advanced than it was yesterday.

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor.No it doesn’t. It suggests that you are a Werewolf, since killing you would have been the best way for the Werewolves to implicate me.

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed.Yes. The further the game goes on and you continue to insist on my guilt, the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent. But it is a valid strategy for one of the Werewolves to sacrifice him- or herself to get an innocent Villager hanged. You have said so yourself on a number of occasions previously. The longer the game goes on without a Werewolf being found, the more valid that strategy becomes.

OK, Kuru, you want me to address your “evidence” against me. I shall:

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out. At a time when I was considering her along with others, you came along and nudged me in her direction, probably because you suspected she might be the Seer. As for “going to ground”, I really do not know what you mean. Yes, I remained quiet on DAY 3, but explained at the time why I was doing that. Indeed, I stated at the outset that this was what I would be doing. I don’t really think that I could be described as “going to ground” at any other point in the game.

To summarise my case against Kuru in a nutshell:

1) He was instrumental in nudging me towards voting for Evisse.
2) His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary, starting at a time when there were no accusations against him and building up as first I, then Firefoot, accused him. I find it difficult to believe that an innocent Villager would be quite so defensive in those circumstances.
3) Since the middle of DAY 2, he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong (just as mormegil single mindedly accused the phantom until he got him lynched).

There are other points too, set out in my post above, but these are the main ones.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

Kuru is yet to address these points (or the others made in my long post above) properly.

Finally, Fordim, while your “quiet” Villager theory has some merit, I have difficulty in voting for one of them since I remain unsure which one the Werewolf might be (and I think that it’s only one). On the other hand, I am pretty much convinced of Kuru’s guilt. Your "numbers" theory points to Kuru for me.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain. But, I'm pretty sure it's him so, as far as I am concerned, the best course of action is to vote for him.

[Shelob]

My appologies for my amazing silence so far today, most of this DAY was spent in school for me and even once I got home there were too many small (but vital) things for me to do that I could only read in fits and starts and never found a chance to post.

As it stands I'm caught between seeing the merits of Kuru's plan to vote for Saucepan Man and Saucepan Man's plan to vote for Kuru...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

Given the arguments I've read (as well as what conclusions and problems I have seen while reading) I get caught quite simply at the point where
>Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf
>Saucepan Man's arguments seem more well formulated

Since behaviour is a rough science to judge by I'm currently leaning towards voting for Kuru....

I don't have a lot of time here but shall likely be back on briefly in a little less than an hour and if not at that time then during break (~9.30) I'll certainly make another appearance.

[Shelob]

Back briefly...as I said I would likely be.

I was just rereading what I had had and figured you might want an explanation (add to that the fact that I found a serious problem with my thinking and I'm back to today being a headache and a toss up)

"Given the arguments I've read (as well as what conclusions and problems I have seen while reading) I get caught quite simply at the point where
>Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf
>Saucepan Man's arguments seem more well formulated"~Shelob

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)

The second point, admittedly, comes from that fact that I was raised by a scientist...Saucepan Man's arguments seem to be much more well thought out than do Kuru's and I am therefore more willing to believe his 'facts' than Kuru's.
The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them (not time in a strictly 'time' sense, but rather time in that they would have a better overview of the whole game and so could have been planning this situation from the outset--therefore their arguments would be more well organized because they could be changed and adapted over the course of many days before ever seeing the light of day...as it were)

Seeing that problem has once again brought me back to looking vainly at my screen and wishing I had a coin...

[Holbytlass]

I have read all theories and posts and opinions that have been put forth so far, I feel like The Phantom did the other day when he believed all of them. Yesterday, I voted for SaucepanMan, today I do the same. I think we should put Kuru's idea into action.

++SaucepanMan

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her.

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves.

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves. If you are a werewolf then it is painfully obvious why you are saying this.

And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Good. I hope so, one way or the other.

the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent.

Yes. This will probably be true if you are innocent. However, that possibility should not ever be a deterrent for anybody speaking their mind. As I said, sooner or later everyone is going to be wrong, it is just going to happen. Since this is the case, there is no point in being timid because it won't save you embarassment and makes it more likely that you can be manipulated into voting for people you don't really want to. (Far be it from me to cite this game as an example).

However, it is an added bonus for me that I don't think you're innocent.

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out.

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death. (As a matter of fact he is still doing it here.) What I said before I'll say again. I became the natural target for werewolf manipulation because I did argue against Evisse. However, werewolf strategy suggests that you want to have one innocent to target later on your side in arguments for lynching innocents. I was that innocent in the case of Evisse. Once I started arguing against her, Saucepan had what he wanted and then backed up what I said (ignoring SoN for the time being) and ultimately voted for Evisse before I did (saying well before that point even that his vote was primarily down to her).

His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary

Hardly extraordinary in light of what we know about the phantom.

he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong. However, I have also said that your behavior fits werewolf strategy so well that the possibility of my being wrong is a chance I am willing to take to test my theory. I'm determined to know if I am right or not.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers. Targeting innocents with single-minded intensity is a pretty good way for them to thin their own numbers eventually. They should only turn on each other when it is absolutely unavoidable. Believe me, I know what I am talking about when I say this.
However, contrary to Saucepan's assertion...I already discussed this back in post #297.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain.

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.

this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...


Indeed, perhaps you should vote against Saucepan Man this time, considering how last time turned out.

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf

-and-

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)


Exactly. I can promise you with a certain amount of authority in the matter :o that this is not a good way for a werewolf to behave (as I've said a few times earlier).

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them

See, you're even coming up with points against Saucepan that I hadn't thought of, why don't you vote against him? I think it is time to put my theory to the test. Remember what happened with the phantom. Saucepan did want us to go that way and look what happened.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…we’re picking up right where we left off. Two loudmouths going away at each other making it virtually guaranteed that one of them is going to get hanged today. To clarify, then:

Saucy’s theory: morm and Kuru are wolves who have been systematically going after other loudmouths with the support of one quiet wolf.

Kuru’s theory: Sauce is a werewolf and there are two more out there somewhere.

My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.

Of the three I still think, obviously, that my theory has the greatest merit :p. In response to the other two, I have to say that I find Sauce’s theory the more sound insofar as it takes into account a much broader picture: it makes a logical argument for the voting patterns and behaviour of the wolves as a group, rather than singling out a single person. So obviously, I think that Kuru’s theory is the less compelling – I have yet to see any real argument from him which would put the actions and votes of Sauce into a context that clearly points to his co-ordinated effort with other wolves.

Next, there are – so far – three suggested courses of action, based on these theories:

1) Lynch Kuru. If he’s a wolf, go after morm next.

2) Lynch Sauce. If he’s a wolf…I’m not sure who is being suggested as the next target, but I suspect that Sauce is right and that it would be me.

3) Lynch one of the quiet villagers, either Holby or Oddwen. If she is a wolf, then go after the other one next. Oops, wait, I’ve just seen Holby’s vote for Sauce – that tears it: she’s probably one of the quiet wolves.

And finally, one more list. What do we gain from each possible course of action if the hanged person is an innocent?

1) If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death, he’s only been defending himself so it wouldn’t prove that Sauce is a wolf. It might cast more suspicion on morm, who could be a wolf using Kuru as his innocent dupe, and possibly on TORE.

2) If we lynch Sauce and find that he’s innocent we can pretty much be certain that Kuru is either a smart wolf working with two quiet wolves, or an innocent who’s the dupe of another loudmouthed wolf (morm?).

3) If we lynch Holby and find that she’s innocent I’m not sure that anything new is learned either. Well, I won’t think that anything new is learned, but I’m sure that everyone else will be sure that you’ve found a wolf in the form of Fordim!

At any event, things are – as always – moving along very quickly and it would appear that my cogitations are perhaps pointless insofar as there are already three votes against The Saucepan Man. To this point I have tried to cast my vote in response to the votes of others, but from here on out I am going to vote the way my reasoning takes me and not strategically. To that end I here vote that we hang:

++Holbytlass

I must head off for a day of work now, and I shan’t have a chance to check in again until later this afternoon… I have no idea how I am going to concentrate on the matters at hand, however, with this going on!

[Kuruharan]

If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death

Actually, I think it would prove a lot. Particularly in light of how Saucepan was the one on DAY TWO who started coming down on me so hard and the whole "me being the target for lynching for Evisse's death" strategy.

[The Saucepan Man]

...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...I agree. The innocent Villagers should be considering everyone, not just two people. There are three Werewolves after all. But if it does come down to a decision between Kuru and me, I would obviously urge you to vote for him, given how sure I am about him now.

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolfWell, he's got away with it so far. But at this stage in the game, the Werewolves can afford to lose one of their number.

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them ...I argue for a living (er, when I'm not brewing, that is ...) :D

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.True, as long as they are not prime lynching candidates. But once they are in the frame, they will want to keep the innocent Villagers who they think are unlikely to vote for them. It makes their chances of survival better. You are clever enough to realise, Kuru, that the Werewolves killing strategy will change as the game progresses. Rarely can they afford to leave it static.

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves.It can be, or it can simply consist of rebutting points without actually putting forward any evidence. Then again, you weren't so keen to make this point yesterday when you accused me of implicating the phantom simply by virtue of defending myself. In any event, it is not just the fact of someone defending themselves that makes them suspicious. The energy that they put into it and the prevailing attitude of the Village towards them at the time must also be taken into account. It is these factors which make your Day 2 behaviour very suspicious.

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death.I would urge people to read all the posts, not just mine, take into account both arguments and form your own opinion.

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong.You hardly give the impression of someone who thinks that he is wrong. But that is because you are wrong intentionally.

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers.As I said, there can be no single Werewolf strategy. It must adapt to circumstances. And in circumstances where the Werewolves have had virtually no votes cast against them (as is the case with you and mormegil, and probaly the third Werewolf too), the single-minded approach works well. By the time it becomes painfully apparent (as it is to me now), the Werewolves will be in a position where they can afford to lose one of their number (as they are now).

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.So it's OK for you to admit that you might be wrong, but when I do it it's a ploy. Right. :rolleyes:

It looks like Holbytlass is the third Werewolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I might not be around again before the deadline, so I'd best vote now.

++ KURUHARAN

Y'all know why ...

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shelob
...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

I agree. The innocent Villagers should be considering everyone, not just two people. There are three Werewolves after all. But if it does come down to a decision between Kuru and me, I would obviously urge you to vote for him, given how sure I am about him now.

See my point? Look at what happened to the phantom and who was wrong about that.

Well, he's got away with it so far.

Only because people are not willing to take me up on my offer, something I have no control over. I want my theory to be put to the test. I want to know if I'm right or wrong. Nothing would suit me better.

You are clever enough to realise, Kuru, that the Werewolves killing strategy will change as the game progresses. Rarely can they afford to leave it static.

Hmmm...I fail to see the benefit to the werewolves to start killing at NIGHT people whose deaths would point to them. Call that silly if you wish, but...

Then again, you weren't so keen to make this point yesterday when you accused me of implicating the phantom simply by virtue of defending myself.

That is because in general principle I don't so much have a problem with this. Today, I'm urging people to make a different choice than they did last time.

In any event, it is not just the fact of someone defending themselves that makes them suspicious. The energy that they put into it and the prevailing attitude of the Village towards them at the time must also be taken into account. It is these factors which make your Day 2 behaviour very suspicious.

And in light of the experience we had with the phantom, I think this is an exonerating point in my favor.

I would urge people to read all the posts, not just mine, take into account both arguments and form your own opinion.

Odd, so do I...

You hardly give the impression of someone who thinks that he is wrong.

That is because I don't think I'm wrong. But I have acknowledged the possibility that I might be and am willing to live with the consequences if I am.

And in circumstances where the Werewolves have had virtually no votes cast against them (as is the case with you and mormegil, and probaly the third Werewolf too), the single-minded approach works well.

No, not really. The werewolves would want to preserve their numbers for as long as possible because it makes winning easier. Bringing suspicion down on themselves is not a good way to do this.

So it's OK for you to admit that you might be wrong, but when I do it it's a ploy. Right.

That's just because of your status in the village (game). ;)

[The Only Real Estel]

Originally posted by Fordim:
1) Sauce is a stupid wolf. This would explain why he is constantly doing things to bring down suspicion on himself and why he narrowly escaped lynching yesterday. The problem I have with this theory is that Sauce is not stupid. I can’t be any more persuasive than that: he just ain’t.

Actually, it takes a very witty person (or wolf) to last as long as Sauce has under as much suspicion as he has endured. I still think he is guilty enough to merit a vote.

Originally posted by Sauce:
One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death

But remember what suspecting the last person that we lynched because he was 'to defensive' got us - just a shorter end of the stick to work with. Kuru strikes me as a very blunt character anyway, his defense methods do not suprise me or else I would post that they do, like I did with my reservations about phantom.

At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom

I was somewhat bothered by the fact that mormegil said that he would review evidence, then went ahead & cast his vote for phantom anyway; and without a word towards my argument that phantom should stay or anything. Still, I do not find him nearly as guilty as I find you at the moment.

[Shelob]

I'm still caught fairly evenly between Kuru and Saucepan Man...however one thing caught my eye:

"You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying" ~Kuru

It was for this reason (though with Saucepan Man misrepresenting me, not Kuru) that led me to vote for Saucepan Man on day 2....

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

>his arguments are very fine tuned (as I've described in an above post)
>He has three times now (twice with me and once with Kuru) been accused of misrepresenting the views/opinions of other players...If I had been accused of such I would be far more careful to insure that no one could make that accusation again...as I said before misrepresentation can only lead to confusion and, eventually, a win for the werewolves...


For such reasons I feel it to be in our best interest that I vote ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN ...though part of me still screams against it...

[Oddwen]

Erp - sorry, I got out late from work last night and didn't have time to post. :(

As to your suspicions of me: be suspicious, fine. If you think you've found a werewolf, you are wrong.

I've been loud in my life and I've been quiet - and quiet is by far the better. When you're not the center of attention and in demand, how you listen and what you take from it changes.

I am led to believe that there are two loudmouthed wolves and a quiet. It would indeed be foolish for all three wolves to be in one camp. My suspicions are currently strongest against SpM, Morm, and Holby.
Since, as Fordim has said, we have had no luck with in the loudmouth camp, I am willing to find a candidate from the quiet -

++HOLBYTLASS

Her frequent jests fall too close to the truth for my ears.

And where is Zali?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I believe that voting is over, though I may look kindly upon anyone who votes in the next few minutes.

[The Saucepan Man]

...though part of me still screams against it...So it should, so it should.

Voting's up, isn't it? You know, I'm kind of relieved ... :D

[The Only Real Estel]

Um...oops, my vote would go towards ++Saucepan Man, then.

edit: I guess I was looking at the post time for phantom's lynching scene & not the post time for when we discovered Firefoot's end, sorry about that :o I had planned on going into a little more detail than just posting a vote, but I guess that'll have to wait until DAY

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's ok, I am not going to adhere to the Barrow-wight's 'to the minute' tyranny! :D

It's not like Saucy needed another vote but.....o well. I'll post a new lynching scene momentarily.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

And so The Saucepan Man was to be put to death. The villagers had decided that they'd take their chances and kill the brewer, rather than ensure a steady supply of ale. Tough choices indeed in these evil times.

Saucepan Man himself was not exactly the opposite of merry: he had been drinking much special brew these past few days, knowing full well that his fellows would kill him sooner or later. He had enjoyed his last hours as much as possible, but it was yet nagging him that the people were so hell-bent on killing one who had served them so well. Alas! he stumbled to the gallows.

Some villagers jeered at him; others stood in silence not at all convinced that this friendly man was a malevolent threat to them. The ceremony went very quickly, smoothly and efficiently; the villagers were well-practised in the art of hanging.

And as The Saucepan Man fell and his neck broke, it became apparent that that was not the villagers' speciality; no doubt, the villagers' field of mastery was the art of voting for completely innocent people to be murdered.

The wolves in the crowd could barely contain themselves from bursting into laughter.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 5


NIGHT 5 has begun, now that it is around 3:45 PM GMT (that's 10:45 AM EST) and 9:45 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours, or sooner if all night-time activity is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To say the morale of Storyland was at an all-time low would be......entirely correct. The village was pretty much bathing in misery. Whither now could they turn to for guidance?

Early in the morning, a scream disturbed the sleepers. They rushed out to see what had happened, and what they saw was one of their fellows weeping on the ground outside the kirk. Inconsolable, all the poor thing could do was point upwards. The friends looked.......and saw the cleric mormegil skewered on the spire, away up in the sky; and the blood was dripping down on the walls of the kirk.

The villagers knew that they had used up all of their mistakes.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrified on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 4


DAY 5 has started, now that it is 3:30 PM GMT (that's 10:30 AM EST) and (9:30 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached by then.

[Kuruharan]

:o :o

Oh well. Like I said, play enough and you’ll be spectacularly wrong eventually. I will now take the howls of derision that are my due. I probably deserve being lynched for being that wrong. ;)

(I hope the werewolves are enjoying this. I personally haven’t been able to stop laughing about it since yesterday. The reason why will probably become more apparent at the end, although people will probably think I have a strange sense of humor.)

[Holbytlass]

Oh, how awful!! :(
At least we know the church has remained pure and these devils had not infiltrated among the rightous leaders.

[Shelob]

"The reason why will probably become more apparent at the end, although people will probably think I have a strange sense of humor." ~Kuru

It seems to me I've heard those words before Kuru, but then again perhaps you meant them to echo Evisse's

"if you see me laughing on the way to the hanging spot, it's because I have a very weird sense of humour. But some of you at least are sure to cry."


Interesting, no?

Also this is likely the last chance I have to be on until 7 Eastern Time (so some 6 hours if you don't want to bother with translating between timezones)
I don't have a lot to say now but I promise I shall when I return from work.

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, I don't think there's any shame in me saying that I have completely lost confidence in my methods at this particular village. Every theory that I've had (or any theory that I've picked up on) seems to go wrong.

I am a bit puzzled by mormegil's murdering, though. You'd think they would've taken out one of the lower-profile villagers again, leaving the 'loudmouth' (asFordim so affectionately calls us :p) to get lynched by fellow loudmouths. Looking back at SpM's latest theory, he thought that the three wolves were Kuru, mormegil, & Holbytlass. When SpM was proven to be innocent, I was willing to give his theory a try - perhaps that is why mormegil was taken out. Let me explain. Once SpM was hung & proven innocent, the wolves might've suspected us to look towards the trio that he had set out. Now, they weren't afraid of us lynching mormegil (obviously), but morm was not the most logical starting point. Since Kuru went to the greatest lengths to attack SpM, and since SpM himself voted for Kuru last round it was most logical that we would test his theory starting with Kuru. Now, perhaps Sauce was two-thirds right. Kuru &Holbytlass could be wolves, that would explain why they offed mormegil, to discourage us from testing Sauce's theory. I am not sure by a mile, but I thought it was something I should bring up.

Personally I'd like to hear Fordim's plan of action again, since SpM seemed so convinced of Fordy's innocence & SoN's theory that I had planned on testing holds no water anymore.

In post #311 Fordim said:
My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves. (he voted for a quite wolf, Holbytlass)

Well, we know that morm was not a wolf, we know that Sauce was not a wolf, & I know that I am not a wolf. That leaves Kuru (and it leaves you). Out of all the villagers that are left I think I can come the closest to trusting Fordim, though. That leaves Kuru as the cover man and then two quite wolves, Holbytlass, perhaps is one of those, I'm not sure yet.

What does everyone else say?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

If you are reading this post, dear brethren, then I have successfully made it through another NIGHT. In hope, but no great expectation of this, I have begun this post almost immediately upon reading of the sad murder of our much abused brewer by the three wolves:

Kuruharan
Holbytlass
Shelob

I am more sure of this list than I have been of anything in this game. I am not saying that it is the definitive list and that I have got all three wolves, but at least two of those names are fuzzy monsters (it’s possible that Kuru should be replaced by TORE) . Rather than go through a whole whack of arguments of my own, I shall let them speak for themselves…

On the first DAY I proposed my strategies and received the following, near identical responses:

Holby:

I kinda like the protecting of the seer idea. I'm not going to comment about the voting idea because, right now, I'm confused. And so sad for that rascal, Eomer.

Shelob:

As to what has here been said before mine entrance I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots. I do however feel the much debated "short-list voting" to be lacking somewhat in mathmatics.

These were two of the only positive responses to it (along with the wolves’ first victim, our seer, Evisse). That they should come so close together and sound so much alike is interesting. But not so interesting as the sudden retractions posted by both monsters when they saw that the wind of general opinion was turning against them…

Holby:

For example, I did say that I thought the seer idea was a good one. Now that it has been stated of the huge advantage for the wolves I'm not so sure that we should do it. Now, no offense is meant for you, Mr. Fordim. The mere fact that you thought of and planned two daring ideas to protect all of us is mind boggling. I could never have done such a thing in a year and all we have is a day.

Shelob:

2) Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them. To me this suggests that Evisse was trying to avoid suspicion by agreeing, but still hoping to get the plans impemented so as to help herself (and her lycanthropic kin).

So not only are they both suddenly against the ideas, without a shred of explanation, but Shelob is now using support of the plan as a reason to lynch Evisse. Meanwhile, Holby (who is far and away the smartest and most dangerous of the wolves) is stirring up the loudmouths and setting them against one another, and directing all attention toward them:

Holby:

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.

Despite having identified three loudmouths (who were lynched, I might add, in reverse order as given here), however, she goes on in the same post to vote for Azaelia – with that notorious “coin flip.” This makes sense as the last thing she wolfishly wanted was for one of the suspicious loudmouths to get lynched on the first day when they can be set against one another for days to come…anyway, Evisse by this point is already doomed, so why cast a vote for someone who is about to be shown innocent, thus drawing attention down upon one’s wolfish self?

That night, of course, the guy who be short was killed by the wolves in that obvious attempt to frame me. mormegil is the first to point out that it was an obvious ploy and everyone agrees with this…but for two interesting exceptions:

Kuru:

It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Shelob:

Well,actually, no...I can think of one other possibility...assume Fordim is a werewolf, then by killing someone so clearly opposed to Fordim the werewolves would all but guarantee that everyone looks at the kill and thinks "It can't be Fordim, this is too obvious."...I'm not saying I believe Fordim to be a werewolf right now (I still hold the confusion he caused yesterday as a point against him, but from that we've all got a point against us so it doesn't really count) I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely...

At this point, Oddwen makes the first of the very few accusations against Holby who responds with what is, for her, a rather surprising amount of vehemence:

Holby:

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

The next time Holby emerges it is to point fingers at the loudmouths again:

Holby:

Maybe Fordim's short list might come in handy....
The 2 main suspects are Phantom and Saucepan Man. Some are suspicous of one or the other and some are suspicious of both. Are there any who do not suspect either?

And only a few posts later she is joined by Shelob:

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

And the next time we hear from Shelob she’s still at it, this time even citing Kuru and Holby in support of her argument:

Shelob:

anyway to continue...as the points stand that way (and admittedly it's not a very accurate way...) it's Saucepan Man: 4.5, Phantom 4 (Kuru hinted at SpM in post 175, but since he never named names I counted it only as a half a point)

I'm not sure how to read Holby's post (190)...it says simply that the most suspicion is on those two and actually seems to suggest an idea similar to Kuru's...worst comes to worst it boosts the points up to 5.5 and 5 accordingly...

I’ve not quoted the loudmouthed Wolf very much, because I don’t feel I have to. Sauce has already made the case against Kuru more effectively than I ever could. But I would like to point out this interesting post…

Kuru:

Oh yes, then there is the other werewolf Firefoot who will vote for the phantom.

I was forgetting about her (even though I probably have less excuse for that than others).

This spurious accusation was not taken up by anyone else, and soon after it, Firefoot is dead.

With the death of our Guardian, I started making my case for the quiet wolves, and just as with happened with my initial propositions on the first DAY there’s agreement…

Holby:

I do agree that there probably is at least one 'quiet' wolf,

and yet when it comes time to vote…

Holby:

I have read all theories and posts and opinions that have been put forth so far, I feel like The Phantom did the other day when he believed all of them. Yesterday, I voted for SaucepanMan, today I do the same. I think we should put Kuru's idea into action.

++SaucepanMan

And then, once more, there’s a post after this in which the other quiet wolf mirrors the actions of her brilliant leader:

Shelob:

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

For such reasons I feel it to be in our best interest that I vote ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN ...though part of me still screams against it...

So once more we have a lot of smoke as they go back and forth about who to vote for, apparently confused and undecided about which of the loudmouths to go after, and then in the end they go after the same one…

There is simply too much evidence here of co-ordinated effort for it to be happenstance. At least two of these people are Wolves. For my money, Holby is the most likely candidate to be a wolf – and the smartest of the wolves. If it came to a vote between Shelob and Kuru I would vote for Shelob because it’s possible that Kuru is not a wolf, just the wolves’ unintentional patsy.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

More evidence...

On DAY 2 Shelob voted for Sauce and Holby voted for TP

On DAY 3 Holby voted for Sauce and Shelob voted for TP

What better way to make sure that the loudmouths keep going at one another than by splitting their votes and then switching them around the next DAY to avoid looking as though they have a vandetta?

For the record: on DAY 1 they both cast meaningless votes (Holby for Az) and Shelob for an already doomed Evisse. The only time they have ever voted together was to lynch Sauce when it was clear to everyone that it was going to come down to a vote between our beloved brewer and their wolfish ally or innocent dupe Kuru.

Foolish wolves, you should have killed me when you had the chance. Poor morm though....

By the way, I think that you have hit the nail right on the head with your reasoning about why morm was the target TORE

[The Only Real Estel]

You obviously have some good points in there Fordim. But I can't help but go back to my two theories of either Spm, phantom, & SoN or SpM, Fordim, & SoN. Of the first one, all of the ones in question were actually innocent, though I came to the conclusion that phantom was most likely innocent and did not vote for him. Of the second one, at least two are innocent, maybe three. I put a great deal of thought behind both of these, and had more than enough evidence (I thought), but neither of them have proved even close to right. So we have to be very careful with who we vote for this time, we can ill afford to lynch someone because we think we have enough evidence. How we can be sure that we have enough evidence I'm not exactly sure, but it is vital to be sure this time.

Originally posted by Fordim:
By the way, I think that you have hit the nail right on the head with your reasoning about why morm was the target TORE
And perhaps they were trying to implicate me as well with one swoop, given that I was #2 on mormegil's list in post #292 (page 8). It is unfortunate for me that mormegil never explained my position on his list like I asked him to, I was entirely confident that I could provide satisfactory reasons for anything that was bothering him, but since he never explained as I invited him to we'll never know why he suspected me - & I'll never have a chance to give my reasons either. But I think that since he never mentioned me again & ended up voting for Sauce (who was #6 on his list) he most likely changed his suspect list around a good deal & just didn't post it.

I suppose I am going to have to trust Fordim with the fate of the village. I am not sure of his innocene, but I am more sure of it than I am of others. Add to that that both Saucey & morm seemed sure of it (to name a few), I am going to go ahead & trust him unless I find his reasoning suspect. I think those who would truly like to see the wolves defeated should do the same.

Originally posted by Fordim:
Foolish wolves, you should have killed me when you had the chance. Poor morm though....

This is something that still makes me leery of you. Why would any wolf leave you alive for this long? Last night I thought for sure that if you were innocent you would not survive the night, & yet here you are...I wonder.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Why would any wolf leave you alive for this long?

Because I voted for Kuru on DAY one and have never believed in much or any of what he said. AND I was the first to posit and outline the "quiet wolf" theory AND I voted for Holby yesterday.

If I had been killed in the night and proven innocent, would you have any doubt of who the wolves were??

or

You are a wolf and I have fallen for your ploys making me your perfect patsy. I find this hard to believe simply because the only allies I can see existing with either you or Kuru are the quiet wolves I've now implicated.

or

on a very outside chance, TORE and Kuru are both wolves, and I have selected an innocent quiet wolf to go after (Holby). This is very hard to believe given my interpretation of the evidence above, and the voting records of each. Still, it's a possibility...if only an extremely remote one.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well...what a sad predicament we are in. If we don't play it right, this is our last day as a village. If we lynch an innocent now, the wolves will win. I have voted wrong every single time.

At this point, I will tentatively agree with Fordim. What he's saying makes sense...
but TORE makes a good point, too: what wolf would leave him alive this long?
It's too early at this point for me to formulate a complete opinion.

And I have to apologize for my absence yesterDAY. I was off visiting relatives in a nearby village. I barely had a moment to myself all day long. So I was unable to make it here. I'm very sorry.

[Kuruharan]

Because I voted for Kuru on DAY one

-Fordim post #332

It depends on what you mean by “voted for me.”

That having been said, I am going to cast my vote against

++SaucepanMan

-Fordim post #59

You voted to hang Saucepan Man on DAY ONE. That was before I started arguing against him. That makes it kind of hard to figure out what you mean by “voted for me” because you did not vote with me or against me that DAY.

[Shelob]

Interesting theory Fordim...except for these:

>> "on DAY 1 they both cast meaningless votes (Holby for Az) and Shelob for an already doomed Evisse"

I voted first for Evisse...and the only person I knew might vote the same way was Saucepan Man...how could I have voted for 'an already doomed' person if they had no votes against them? It was only after Saucepan Man and Kuru voted that the votes rolled in for Evisse...

>> "So not only are they both suddenly against the ideas, without a shred of explanation, but Shelob is now using support of the plan as a reason to lynch Evisse."

I went over this with Saucepan Man

I still think that the 'short-list' idea is inheirently wrong, maybe it's not flawed as I first saw it to be but something about it is just not right...as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

...secondly you said
"then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected"
What I did was use your usefull list as a summary of behavours so that I could post before being dragged off...what I actually said was
"Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them"
...I disagreed with one, and so didn't want to use it, and didn't mind the other, so didn't mind using it...Evisse disliked both but didn't mind using both...it was that behaour that I found suspicious...not the fact that she supported the idea...
(both from previous posts of mine)

Isn't it convenient how you 'forgot' about those posts?


Now...on to TORE's plan

"This is something that still makes me leery of you. Why would any wolf leave you alive for this long? Last night I thought for sure that if you were innocent you would not survive the night, & yet here you are...I wonder."

I have had similar suspicions myself...at first Fordim drew a lot of attention, never enough to be lynched...but enough that once his innocence seemed proven people gave him little to no more real thought and turned instead upon the other 'loudmouths'...Were he a werewolf this would be wonderful--a risk well worth the reward...were he innocent then once he was thus 'proven' innocent the werewolves would likely want to get rid of him because he could only harm them (he would no longer draw attention away from them and in his death the villagers would learn nothing new because they already knew he was innocent)...

Also, looking back on it, Fordim's post saying

"At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night."

makes me rather nervous...When first I read it I thought that his reasoning was sound and that it makes sense...but if the werewolves had tried to kill him once it is likely they would have tried again...esp. once they got the Guardian out of the picture...but now that he has not yet died I begin to feel that the above mentioned post was meant to make us trust that the guardian had saved him...but perhaps poor Firefoot had saved another and a werewolf was trying to buy another point of innocence (for clearly the Guardian could neither dispute nor confirm this assumption with out announcing themselves to theworld and to the werewolves)

And Fordim was not the only one to make this assumption...Mormegil, innocent Mormegil, said:

"I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious."

This reasoning makes as much sense as Fordim's does and has since been supported by Mormegil's rather gruesome death...



I feel that I had more to say...but I got called off to clean the kitchen and can't remember now...oh well, you'll hear of it when I think of it...

[Holbytlass]

In response to Shelob sounding like me, if we were both wolves, we would make an effort to sound different when we agreed on something.

I said it probably wouldn't be a good idea to use the 'seer protection plan' AFTER it had been proven that the plan would actually point out the seer. How is that wolvish not to use something that would hurt our seer? A wolf would want to keep using the plan, like Fordim.

I did state a 'short-list' with Phantom and SaucepanMan, I was echoing pretty much everbody, cause at that time they WERE the main suspicious ones.
I voted for Azalia with the coin-toss because it was so early in the game that I didn't want to bandwagon. If anything, I slept guilt free the following night after it had been discovered that not only was Evisse innocent, she was the seer! That has been my only guilt free night. I voted for SoN to save myself and I thought he was a wolf. I voted for SpM twice till his death and I thought he was a wolf.

The funniest thing about Fordim now gunning after me is him calling me the 'smart wolf'. Anyone who has ever come into my shop or has had dealings with me in the past knows that smarts, quick-witted and fast-thinking are not my strong suits. Therefore, I am a little flattered about Fordim's 'sort-of' compliment. On the flip side, anyone he thinks is also a wolf ought to be highly offended.

Since Fordim has brought up the subject of intelligence, if I am the 'smart wolf' then he is the 'Alpha brillinat genius wolf'.
It is Fordim who thought of the 'short-list and 'seer protection plan' in the first place. If the village went for it, the seer would be pointed out, and innocents could easily be put on the list to be voted against. If the village didn't go for it, the Fordim still looks good because he was just trying to help. Sure there was alittle suspicion but there is none now.
It is only Fordim that TGWBS suspected and he got killed. Fordim is brilliant enough to know that someone would point out the 'obviuos' frame-up and could possibly get away with a double-bluff, and he seemingly has.

It is Fordim that switched gears to the quiet group, I still agree that there is a 'quiet' wolf but Fordim switched suddenly when he still has a little bit of wiggle room in the 'loud' group. The only thing that differenciates Fordim from everyone else, is that he is the only one saying there is 2 or more in the quiet group.
If we are to believe him, and vote for a quiet villager than there is more of a chance to get an innocent (such as myself) to get lynched and then he and his pack have killed off this village.

I know in a battle of words and wits, I have lost to Fordim even before I started, and if I loose and get lynched it is a loss for the village and a win for the Alpha wolf, Fordim.

[Holbytlass]

Heh-heh, I give a grim chuckle. I see that Shelob has posted almost exactly one hour before me!! IT MUST BE AN OMEN!!
*this is dripping in sarcasm*

[The Only Real Estel]

A few thoughts on my suspicions (if any) on the remaining villagers:

Azaelia of Willowbottom- Hasn’t posted enough for me to be suspicious yet (unless you count being suspicious because of a lack of posting). As far as I can tell she has only posted four times, twice to vote for phantom on days 2 & 3.

Fordim Hedgethistle- I was originally suspicious of both Saucepan Man, SoN, & him; then was suspicious of SpM & him after reexamining SoN’s last theory. Now that SpM is gone & has proven innocent I am having trouble trusting my own methods & feel the need to turn to Fordim since Sauce & Morm (the two latest to die) both thought that he was innocent. Was also defended by Firefoot (along with SpM & I) before her horses were killed & she drowned. Outlined a ‘short list’ of SpM, phantom, & I – with two of those widely-known innocents & the other one I am entirely sure of his innocence. Still, I am under the impression (as was Saucey) that he did this to obviously to have had wolfish intent (unless it’s a sort of double-bluff tactic...).

Holbytlass- A little surprised by the ‘surprising amount of vehemence’ she displayed as described by Fordim above, but generally I haven’t given many of the ‘silent ones’ much thought. Saucepan Man seemed to become convinced of her guilt before he was unfortunately hung, but I’m not entirely sure that I see his reasoning behind that (other than that she voted for him). Fordim’s recent post on her, among other things, I am still considering.

Kuruharan- Was strangely defensive when questioned by only two villagers – Saucey & Firefoot (who both have proved to be innocents) – and that was in the very early going. Strange that he should make such a big deal of two people questioning him, but he did. Still, this did not make me overly suspicious. Has been rather ‘single-minded,’ as the late Saucey put it. Heightened my suspicions a bit when he went a bit overboard on the ‘evidence’ against Saucey. It would seem that he tried to convince the villagers of an innocent’s guilt by overwhelming them with how much evidence he could bring up to support his theory, which would usually point towards someone not having many really strong points to draw upon.

Oddwen- Indicated in post #318 (page 8) that her top three suspects were SpM, Morm, & Holby. SpM & Morm have since proved innocent, but I cannot come close to convicting her on such evidence as this.

Shelob- Voted for Saucepan Man because his evidence seemed to be ‘to well put together.’ I am not sure that I would want to lynch someone on the basis of trying to have an airtight case, unless his or her post included facts that none but a wolf could possibly know... Accused by Fordy in his above post. I am still thinking it over.

The Only Real Estel- I have no reason to suspect myself that I know of.

Originally posted by Shelob:

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

You justified voting for SpM instead of Kuru because the only argument against him was based on strategy. I would argue that about the only arguments that hold much water in this ga-er-village are the ones that are based upon ones strategy/patterns/voting record (though the voting record can be easily manipulated as I've said before).

Originally posted by Fordim:

"At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night."

Originally posted by Shelob:

makes me rather nervous...When first I read it I thought that his reasoning was sound and that it makes sense...but if the werewolves had tried to kill him once it is likely they would have tried again...esp. once they got the Guardian out of the picture...but now that he has not yet died I begin to feel that the above mentioned post was meant to make us trust that the guardian had saved him...but perhaps poor Firefoot had saved another and a werewolf was trying to buy another point of innocence (for clearly the Guardian could neither dispute nor confirm this assumption with out announcing themselves to the world and to the werewolves)

And Fordim was not the only one to make this assumption...Mormegil, innocent Mormegil, said:

"I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious."

This reasoning makes as much sense as Fordim's does and has since been supported by Mormegil's rather gruesome death...


Good point. I would definitly expect the wolves to go right back to Fordim after having failing once - and especially after they had dispatched of Firefoot. If we assume that it was Mormegil who was guarded that night then it all makes perfect sense - the wolves tried to kill morm, couldn't, figured out that Firefoot was most likely the guardian (which she was), killed her, then proceeded to kill morm. This is exactly the way I would expect it to go, but it is clearly not the way it went if the wolves had tried to kill Fordim that night. But of course it is quite possible that Fordim simply thought that he was the one protected that night, & happened to be wrong (or he could be right, for all we know). This whole 'who was guarded' argument really only clears up one thing - that it was most likely not Fordim, & that proves nothing as to his guilt or innocence.

I am going to take a moment to finish reviewing the thread & then I'll post again, but RL is going to keep me from voicing my vote in the morning (as I'd like to, so that I could hear more evidence) so I'll probably have to do it tonight. Alas, to be rushed on what could be the last night to live...:eek:

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, as I posted before, RL will keep me away from & out of all discussion tommorrow (Sunday), probably all day, though I might be able to check on the happenings Sunday night (if the village hasn't been razed (sp?) by the wolves by that time). So now I must cast my vote. I am not certain of anyone's guilt, & although I would like to vote for Kuru (partially to avenge Sauce in the same way Kuru suggested we hang Sauce if we hung an innocent Fordim early on) but something within me warns me against it at the moment. The same thing warned me against voting for Evisse, although at least I averted two innocent deaths by voting for her anyway; it warned me not to vote against phantom, which I didn't; and, at the last second, it warned me not to vote against Sauce. The last one startled me, &, since it was so last second, I ignored it. This time I will not. My vote goes to ++ Shelob, & if she is guilty than perhaps I will be more sure about Kuru. Though I am wondering why we haven't seen any more of him then we have lately...

[Kuruharan]

Though I am wondering why we haven't seen any more of him then we have lately...

I've been waiting for something to happen. It hasn't yet, but if I say any more about it, then it might not happen. (Although, it might not happen anyway.)

In any case, it is worth waiting till tomorrow to see if it does. Besides, if I said anything at the moment, I wouldn't be believed (and probably shouldn't just yet. :D )

I'm going to wait on voting until the morning.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear TORE, you have gone and forced my hand here, and not precisely the direction I wanted it to go. With only one more innocent than there are wolves (4 to 3), all the innocents are going to have to vote for the same person. So, much as I wanted to vote for Holby I will have to vote now for:

++SHELOB

Of course, you could be the loudmouthed wolf -- something I've not dismissed yet -- but as I still think there may not be a loudmouthed wolf, and given that we are at the point where someone is going to have to trust in someone else, I am willing to follow your lead in this.

And may god have mercy on me...

[Holbytlass]

I agree the innocents have to stick together, I hope you are right in this vote.
But I think maybe so, on re-reading especially Fordim's accusations against me and Shelob, it points to Shelob sticking with me, the old follow along with an innocent routine. And Fordim, you should be glad TORE has forced your hand away from me, I am innocent. ++SHELOB

[Oddwen]

Well, it would appear that the wolves are laying in wait to force their hand.

Which I'm willing to bet means that there's been no vote for an innocent.

++SHELOB

[Kuruharan]

Hmm…I was hoping for a little bit more of a selection here, perhaps accompanied by a little bit more argument. Instead we have everybody making one choice opposed by dead silence.

I guess I’ll go along with the one choice and authorize a lynching.

++ SHELOB

EDIT: Cross-posted with Oddwen. :o

[Shelob]

Thanks ever so much.

I bet it's not worth it with just half an hour left to this day to try and convince the remaining villagers of my innocence (and I really don't have the time anyway as I'm supposed to be baking a cake.) But I do warn you all that this is a mistake...It is not for me for whom you should cast your vote, but for one who has played the part of werewolf better than I ever could...with that I cast my vote for ++FORDIM

[Shelob]

Wish I had seen those earlier Oddwen and Kuru...

Fare thee well my friends.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Majority reached, so voting is over (with a few moments to spare; goodness!)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with everyone else. And it's not as if my vote would really make any difference anyway, since I believe there is a majority.

so I vote for ++Shelob

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Only one stray vote this time, and that was cast by she whom all others suspected. Or did they? Maybe it was just the sheer reality of the numbers which forced the villagers to vote this way in such a strong manner. Whatever had happened this day, Shelob was going to die this evening.

The accusation would have seemed laughable to any impartial onlooker; the story-teller was such a sweet young thing. How could she, of all villagers, be a werewolf? Well, there were not too many villagers left to accuse.....

Sobbing quietly, she was led to the gallows. Please don't kill me she muttered feebly. And considering recent events, the townspeople almost imagined letting her off the hook, so abysmally wrong they had been recently. But the 'rules of the game' dictated that someone must die; they had to save Storyland. It was the girl who had previously personified the spirit of the queer little village that was to disappear forever.

And so the noose went around her neck; and her eyes blazed. She had bluffed and she had failed. Used to getting her own way, the girl had banked on crying her way out of the situation. But the villagers, though teary-eyed themselves, were not to be stopped from fulfilling their duty; and Shelob realised that she had made a great mistake.

Get this off me! she screamed. You're going to pay for this! A madness was in her eyes and it startled the villagers.

You will get what's coming to you, you wretched....people!"

Terrified, the excecutioner pulled the lever, and the girl suffered the break that would kill her, but not before beginning the horrifying process of turning into a werewolf. Her huge teeth jutted out and her eyes were like devils to look at, dying though she was.

The villagers screamed for a good couple of minutes as Shelob writhed in agony. When she finally hung still, the people felt their spirits lift truly for the first time in several days and they cheered long and loud.

They had finally killed a werewolf.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
Oddwen
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrificed on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5
Shelob (Werewolf) - lynched by villagers on DAY 5

Score:

Werewolves: 2
Villagers: 4


NIGHT 6 has started, now that it is about 4PM GMT (that's 11AM EST) and (10AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if all night-time business is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers awoke with a slight spring in their step, after all they had killed a werewolf yesterday. But apprehension was still rife; they guessed that the werewolves had not been idle during the night. Anxiously, they rushed to the Town Hall. They were straightaway surprised by the lack of numbers present.

Four? they questioned. That's not too many. And they waited for longer than usual. The Sun was getting higher in the sky but still no-one joined them. Where were Holbytlass and Azaelia?

The villagers marched off to the cobbler's little house first. There were no signs of a struggle. The front door was locked. They broke the lock, had a quick look around and, seeing nothing out of the ordinary, stepped back outside.

Hmm...

So off to Azaelia's house they went. It was just as small and just as homely. Fitting places really, for two such delightful villagers to live in. But Azaelia's house was now a mess. Even from the outside, it seemed to cry of murder. So inside the four villagers went. And they were met by a spine-chilling sight.

A wolf lay dead and bloodied just in the doorway. It had been shot through the heart with a quite huge arrow, and blood had poured out of the wound for a long time, as the surrounding green carpet was now a very deep dark red.

But at the other end of the floor there was a much more heartbreaking sight. The torso of Azaelia was lying against a door, a shocked expression on her face. Her limbs had been torn off and were nowhere to be seen, but a crossbow lay by her side. She had killed one werewolf just before being ripped apart by the other werewolf, and she had died with honour.

The villagers now realised that Holbytlass was the second werewolf, and that only one remained at large in the village.


Living:

Fordim Hedgethistle
Kuruharan
Oddwen
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrificed on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5
Shelob (Werewolf) - lynched by villagers on DAY 5
Holbytlass (Werewolf) - slain by the Hunter on NIGHT 6
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Hunter) - ripped apart by a werewolf on NIGHT 6

Score:

Werewolf: 1
Villagers: 3


DAY 6 has started, now that it is about 3:40 PM GMT (that's 10:40 AM EST) and (9:40 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached by then.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Aha!! Foul fiend Holby!

I had written the following post before seeing that our brave hunter saved us from this wolf. Now read on, fellow innocents, and let's lynch the remaining beast:

Again, dear brethren, if you are reading this, I have survived the night. Once more, in hope of my survival, I have begun this post immediately after the hanging of the wolf.

Kuru, for what it is worth, I no longer think that you are wolf, only an innocent patsy. That is, of course, if you are still alive…

The Only Real Estel and Holbytlass, on the other hand, you are both fuzzy monsters, and clumsy ones at that. Your little charade yesterday of handing over to us your companion has not worked. TORE: your heavy-pawed attempt to save Holby by forcing me to vote for Shelob was about as subtle as a sledgehammer. And Holby, your triumphant crow about your own innocence as you offered up your sacrificial victim rang just as hollow. I’m no fool, I know that even if you lost one wolfish-ally you would still be in charge today. In fact, you were probably hoping that after giving up Shelob you’d have a shot at getting the Cursed Villager to replace her. Too bad that failed…

And I’m also not fooled by your attempt to discredit me: “Look everyone,” I can already hear you saying, “Fordim wanted to vote for Holby, who is clearly innocent because she voted for Shelob. It’s a good thing that TORE and Holby pointed you all in the right direction…Fordim would have led you astray: he must be the wolf!” The fact that I am alive this DAY is demonstrable proof of your strategy…

As I did yesterday, however, I shall allow the wolves to speak for themselves. I have already demonstrated Holby’s guilt, so all that remains is to show up TORE for the monster that he is using his own words.

When the game began, his response to my plans was virtually identical to that of Shelob and Holby:

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

Just like his counterparts, of course, he suddenly decided that he did not like the plan when the other loudmouths turned on it. Just minutes before Holby weighs in on the idea, TORE writes:

edit: I am now split on the seer idea. I do see how it would help the villagers (that seems pretty obvious), but I also see 'short guy's' point about how it could potentially undermine some of the basic guesswork and sleuthing that are involved in the four-letter-word-that-starts-with-'g.'

Having done his wolfish flip-flop, the first targets he names are all loudmouths:

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

Two of those three were killed by wolves after it became clear that there would emerge no clear consensus to lynch them; and in both cases I was the intended target. tgwbs was killed to stir things up around me; morm was killed so that I could stay alive, allowing TORE and Holby to stage their little “Let’s-rally-round-Fordim-and-prove-our-innocence” dance. But back to TORE’s posts…

As the first DAY wore on, he distances himself from my plans (again, just like Holby – something which The Phantom noted) and begins to focus on a mixture of loudmouths and innocents who were lynched very early on:

then I should be following Saucey's reasoning and vote for Evisse, SoN, or Fordim.

He goes on to vote for Evisse, saying at the time:

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Really quite brilliant, I think; I doff my cap. At one fell swoop you vote for an innocent who is already clearly doomed, following the logic – as you are clear to point out – of another innocent. You then state that “if” the innocent is found innocent you will have grounds to suspect two other innocents! And we all remember what happened after this: the loudmouths got out of control and, quel surprise, of the five people you mention in these posts, four are dead within a couple of days… I also note your care in not going after our resident loose cannon Kuru, which was SpM’s one real mistake.

TORE then goes very quiet for almost a full day before putting up a long post in which he details his two theories:

I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out – Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves.

Again, putting attention on loudmouthed innocents, and not going after the wolves’ patsy Kuru. And he bangs away in this vein for the next while:

I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it)


That night, however, he votes to lynch Sono, and does so at the very last minute. The following DAY he gives us this shocking explanation for having waited so long to vote, but only after another long silence which he broke only once to explain that he would have to delay answering the question put forth about the lateness of his vote:

Yes Fordim, you did prevent me from tying things yesterday. I had hoped for a double lynching. Yes, I said that right. And yes, I am going to get some strange looks for admitting this, but here my reasoning. I was 90% sure of both SoN's & SpM's guilt, so I saw a great opportunity to lynch two wolves with one noose, especially since we are beginning to run out of time. I was hoping that Fordim would vote for Sauce and I could then tie it, but when he didn't, I saw there was little reason for me to hold my vote any longer.

Frankly, I’m ashamed that I did not see this for the self-serving claptrap that it was at the time and zero in on this fiendishly clever wolf a lot earlier…

By this point, TORE has hit his stride and he continues on with the same basic strategy. Sometimes he supports The Phantom, sometimes he supports The Saucepan Man; he stops going after Kuru – his patsy – and I – whose innocence is largely now accepted, and concentrates entirely on keeping everyone’s attention on the two biggest loudmouths.

And again he is one of the last to vote, this time for Saucy, predicting at the time:

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey.


Again, I doff my cap: brilliant! “Hey, he based his whole voting strategy on the assumption that Shelob would vote for Sauce and she didn’t! They clearly can’t both be wolves!”

And just in case you missed it, TORE is careful to point it out just a few posts later;

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY…If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

The next day, in a long post(279), TORE begins by saying that there’s merit to my quiet wolf theory, entertains for a moment that I might be right about Shelob and Holby and then goes on to incriminate Sauce and me. This same strategy is present in all his posts through the next DAY…

And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you (SpM) & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.

No mention of the quiet wolves, of course, and no dangerous gestures toward the patsy Kuru. It all culminated, of course, with his vote to lynch Sauce, this time actually past the voting deadline…

Which brings me back to the events of the last DAY, which I have already commented on above. The only thing that needs to be mentioned here is that on every DAY, The Only Real Estel was either the very last, or among the very last villagers to vote. Not so yesterday. Yesterday, he could not vote fast enough. Yesterday, he was the first to cast a vote, thus forcing my hand. This cunning wolf – who, throughout the game always wanted to “wait and see” to “weigh his options” – chose to cast the first vote on the one DAY on which casting the first vote determines the outcome of the vote.

Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present to you the final two wolves:

Holbytlass, and The Only Real Estel. I would suggest we lynch them in that order.

[Kuruharan]

This has been a strange ga...I mean village.

I'm going to wait and see what Estel has to say for himself before posting any theories. Perhaps Oddwen would also have something to say.

(Has anybody else noticed that when I play the village is reduced to a ghost town or at least always grinds out to the very last couple of people? :eek: )

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

To my fellow Innocents, Oddwen and Kuru:

Victory is in our grasp. As a follow-up to my long post I wanted to clarify a couple of points. As I said above, I wrote that post during the NIGHT not knowing, of course, that the wolves would get our hunter (praise her with great praise!!) and that she would take one of them down. This has changed things somewhat.

First, I find it impossible to deny TORE's guilt knowing that Holby was a wolf. It was only his sudden vote for Shelob yesterday that saved Holby. The connections that I found between his voting and posting strategy and hers now makes it a lock.

A special note to Kuru: as I have said twice now, I wrote my above post during the NIGHT and before our hunter (praise her with great praise) brought down Holby (clever wolf). At that time I thought we would be dealing with two wolves today, and I deemed it in my own interest to portray you in a poor light as the "patsy". I did this in anticipation of their next move, which would have been to get Oddwen and I to vote for you. With me apparently "on their side" in the Shelob vote they would have figured they could get me to vote for you next...and by painting you as the "patsy" I was hoping to given them enough room in my argument to try and argue that your "patsy" behaviour was clear evidence fo wolfishness, and thus try to shift my vote away from them and toward you. I was going to use this attempt to prove demonstrably that they were the wolves. But now, it is no longer needed...

To be clear, then: I don't think of you as their patsy, only as their unwilling dupe -- just as I have been their unwilling dupe, and as were all the loudmouths, may they rest in peace.

Much as I would like to lynch TORE immediately and be done with it, I will force myself to hold off on voting until I have seen the others post. It will also be nice watching that wolf try to wriggle and squirm his way out of the noose.

All praise our great hunter Azaelia! Priase her with great praise!!

[The Only Real Estel]

Much as changed since I last posted :eek:.
I am afraid that I have to leave for a previous engagment, which Fordim will no doubt find suspicious. :rolleyes:

I will post again tonight.

[Oddwen]

Well, this is a turn of events and no mistake.

If we still had a bard, I would ask him to sing now the lay of "No-limbed Zali and the Werewolf of Doom", but I guess I can't. :( Eglerio! (or is that "praise them"?)

TORE has been niggling on my suspicions of late - Fordim, thank you for your post(s) that have cemented my suspicions.

I won't be on until tomorrow, so I must vote now -

++The Only Real Estel

[Kuruharan]

I was going to apologize for my absence today. There has been a more than adequate amount of lightning about my abode. (There was a cold front parked literally just next to my place. Storms were firing up over and over again just as soon as the last batch had moved off. Most annoying.)

However, I see Estel has not replied in detail yet, so I'll be polite and wait for him.

Where's Oddwen got off to?

(Fordim: It’s okay. ;))

EDIT: Never mind, cross posted with Oddwen. (As seems to be getting to be my usual habit.)

[The Only Real Estel]

Just a note, I am working on a post but have an absurd 10 minutes time limit that is out of my control :mad: :rolleyes:. Just so you know I am here & typing...

[The Only Real Estel]

Kuru, for what it is worth, I no longer think that you are wolf, only an innocent patsy. That is, of course, if you are still alive…

What is the reasoning behind the sudden change of thinking?

The Only Real Estel and Holbytlass, on the other hand, you are both fuzzy monsters, and clumsy ones at that. Your little charade yesterday of handing over to us your companion has not worked. TORE: your heavy-pawed attempt to save Holby by forcing me to vote for Shelob was about as subtle as a sledgehammer.

I voted for Shelob because I trusted that you were right in your theory. You seemed equally sure of both Shelob's & Holbytlass's guilt & I was more sure of Shelob's. Knowing that I would not be able to be on in the morning (as I clearly posted), I had to cast my vote when I did - and I cast it for Shelob, hoping that it would clear up something I had been thinking about. After all, we could always lynch Holby next round, I thought.

And Holby, your triumphant crow about your own innocence as you offered up your sacrificial victim rang just as hollow. I’m no fool

The 'crow of innocence' didn't fool anybody, I don't think. I know I still planned on voting for her today.

I know that even if you lost one wolfish-ally you would still be in charge today

Actually, I had thought of the possibility of a Fordim, Shelob, Holby alliance, after you implicated both of them there would be no way in the world that we wouldn't trust you. You could then lead us to lynch the last villager that seperated us from a tie.

And I’m also not fooled by your attempt to discredit me: “Look everyone,” I can already hear you saying, “Fordim wanted to vote for Holby, who is clearly innocent because she voted for Shelob. It’s a good thing that TORE and Holby pointed you all in the right direction…Fordim would have led you astray: he must be the wolf!”

This would indeed be the most clumsy, 'heavy-pawed' tactic on the face of this earth.

The fact that I am alive this DAY is demonstrable proof of your strategy…

Why does this prove anything? You said yourself:

If I had been killed in the night and proven innocent, would you have any doubt of who the wolves were??

Why would that change? I fully expected the wolves to leave you alive & then we could work together to bring down Holby; apparently you are actually bent on bringing the village down, not the wolves.

As I did yesterday, however, I shall allow the wolves to speak for themselves. I have already demonstrated Holby’s guilt, so all that remains is to show up TORE for the monster that he is using his own words.

The only way that this would happen would be if my words were twisted...

Just like his counterparts, of course, he suddenly decided that he did not like the plan when the other loudmouths turned on it

I gave a good reason. I was basing my partial support of the theory on totally faulty & completely ignorant evidence. He who can not change his mind in need is in fetters. Besides, I seem to remember quite a few other people who have proved to be innocent that 'switched lanes'.

(Posted by me, reposted by Fordim in an effort to prove that I wolfishly flip-flopped:
While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

What is wrong again with this reasoning? The only thing that you said was that I changed my mind...

Having done his wolfish flip-flop, the first targets he names are all loudmouths

I've already re-mentioned my reasoning behind the switch. Funny that you did not fully represent the facts by posting both sides of the story.

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

I belive it was the innocent SpM who originally brought up that your 'plans' might be really just a gauge, I expounded on this theory.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

I fail to see why posting in the defense of someone early on is being used against me...

TORE and Holby to stage their little “Let’s-rally-round-Fordim-and-prove-our-innocence” dance

I thought that because SpM, Morm, & Firefoot (to name a few) considered you to be innocent I could trust you to help guide the innocent villagers to the right decisions. Obviously Holby and any other wolf would vote for Shelob after your 'all the innocents must post together' bit - who in their right mind would vote otherwise after that? But perhaps my trust has been misplaced after all...

Posted by me:
If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Posted by Fordy:
Really quite brilliant, I think; I doff my cap. At one fell swoop you vote for an innocent who is already clearly doomed, following the logic – as you are clear to point out – of another innocent. You then state that “if” the innocent is found innocent you will have grounds to suspect two other innocents! And we all remember what happened after this: the loudmouths got out of control and, quel surprise, of the five people you mention in these posts, four are dead within a couple of days… I also note your care in not going after our resident loose cannon Kuru, which was SpM’s one real mistake

I would suspect anyone who vicously attacked an innocent, & any innocent villager should have looked at those two in that particular situation.

TORE then goes very quiet for almost a full day before putting up a long post in which he details his two theories

If I remember right this was on Sunday, a day that I specifically posted and said I would not be able to post on until late, if then. And yet this is being used against me? :confused:

(referring to my SpM, SoN, tp theory):
Again, putting attention on loudmouthed innocents, and not going after the wolves’ patsy Kuru. And he bangs away in this vein for the next while

SoN had cast suspicions on himself by posting infrequently, how does that qualify him as a 'loud-mouthed' innocent?

Posted by me:
I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it)

Saucepan Man switched lanes to declare you innocent based on the same evidence that he was using to suggest you were guilty. How could I not be suspicious?

That night, however, he votes to lynch Sono, and does so at the very last minute. The following DAY he gives us this shocking explanation for having waited so long to vote, but only after another long silence which he broke only once to explain that he would have to delay answering the question put forth about the lateness of his vote

I voted to lynch him for the 'shocking reasons' that I have already posted before. And I am sorry that I couldn't show up sooner, I seem to remember RL sideling you at least once as well (forcing you into an early vote for the departed phantom)?

Frankly, I’m ashamed that I did not see this for the self-serving claptrap that it was at the time and zero in on this fiendishly clever wolf a lot earlier…

I still don't see it as being self-serving claptrap...

Posted by me:
...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey

Again, I doff my cap: brilliant! “Hey, he based his whole voting strategy on the assumption that Shelob would vote for Sauce and she didn’t! They clearly can’t both be wolves!”

I would hardly consider that to be good evidence for us to not be wolves.

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY…If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

I was taking some stock in Kuru's theory. Forgive me.

The next day, in a long post(279), TORE begins by saying that there’s merit to my quiet wolf theory, entertains for a moment that I might be right about Shelob and Holby and then goes on to incriminate Sauce and me. This same strategy is present in all his posts through the next DAY…

Remembered SoN's theory. I thought I would have a better chance of bagging a wolf in the 'loud' group, since the quite ones had posted so little to work with.

Which brings me back to the events of the last DAY, which I have already commented on above. The only thing that needs to be mentioned here is that on every DAY, The Only Real Estel was either the very last, or among the very last villagers to vote. Not so yesterday. Yesterday, he could not vote fast enough. Yesterday, he was the first to cast a vote, thus forcing my hand. This cunning wolf – who, throughout the game always wanted to “wait and see” to “weigh his options” – chose to cast the first vote on the one DAY on which casting the first vote determines the outcome of the vote.

Strange that you have not been posting my specific explanations for voting/disappearing as I have. And why does it bother you that we lynched Shelob instead of Holby? There would have been plenty of time to get her today, as I had planned on doing - but good Az took her out to shorten things for us.

I'm way past my time limit. Since Shelob was a wolf I suspected Kuru because of Shelob's absurd 'reasoning' behind voting for SpM instead of Kuru. Now that Fordim has attacked an innocent villager, I am considering him as well. And there is still this inner feeling in me that is telling me not to vote for Kuru...I will vote tommorrow, Oddwen, I'm sorry that you've fallen for this. Lynching me will cause the wolves to lay waste to the village, do not lynch me!

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oddwen: quiet, yes, but she was the very first villager to draw attention to Holbytlass. Could be the cleverest wolf of all.

Kuruharan: loud and determined to get SpM, but no demonstrable proof of any kind of co-ordinated effort with the proven wolves. Could be a wolf.

Estel: loud but also oddly quiet; having a hand in the lynchings but never really taking a lead role; could be the victim of circumstance and bad-timing in his votes, particularly yesterday, but that's an awful lot of bad-luck...

++THE ONLY REAL ESTEL

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I didn't mention before, but am I right in thinking that the villagers must find the wolf today or all is lost?

[Kuruharan]

You are correct.

I'm waiting to see if Estel has anything else to say before voting.

His life cannot be saved at this point but if he's willing we might be able to force a tie and increase the village's odds of winning.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

You are correct.

I'm waiting to see if Estel has anything else to say before voting.

His life cannot be saved at this point but if he's willing we might be able to force a tie and increase the village's odds of winning.

Hmmmmm...I rather suspect you are wanting to kill off myself and TORE at the same time. Well, as it's the end of the game...er...village either way I don't have any objection in theory, but I would think that my innocence had been pretty amply demonstrated by this point.

Of course, perhaps Kuru is the wolf after all and is wanting to end it at the lynching without having to wait for the NIGHT to do me in...

[The Only Real Estel]

Kuruharan: loud and determined to get SpM, but no demonstrable proof of any kind of co-ordinated effort with the proven wolves. Could be a wolf

My tie-in between Shelob & Kuru I have already spoken of. Shelob voted for SpM instead of Kuru because Sauce's arguments were 'better formulated' & the only evidence against Kuru was 'strategy.' I would argue the best evidence is strategy. Besides, the fact that you can find so much 'evidence' to tie me to the other wolves means that I am either innocent or an extremely clumsy wolf.

Estel: loud but also oddly quiet; having a hand in the lynchings but never really taking a lead role; could be the victim of circumstance and bad-timing in his votes, particularly yesterday, but that's an awful lot of bad-luck...

I have always given warning when I know that I will be forced to be away from my comp-er-the village council. As to luck, I seem to remember an innocent brewer who had similar luck before being wrongfully hung.

Of course, perhaps Kuru is the wolf after all and is wanting to end it at the lynching without having to wait for the NIGHT to do me in

Well it's a bit late to be thinking of that old boy...

I am more suspicious of Kuru at the time, but Fordim is either extremely misguided or a very cunning wolf. Seeing as Kuru will not vote for himself, the villages only hope is that we lynch Fordim with me & hope that he is a wolf, because I know I am not. That said I will act in the best intrest of the village, as I have always tried to:
++Fordim

[Kuruharan]

Hmmmmm...I rather suspect you are wanting to kill off myself and TORE at the same time. Well, as it's the end of the game...er...village either way I don't have any objection in theory

You are correct sir! However, I'd really have little choice in the matter. It would depend on how Estel wanted to go.

but I would think that my innocence had been pretty amply demonstrated by this point.

Hmm...who knows...

Obviously, the weakness in my little plan is if Oddwen is the werewolf. However, if she is then she deserves to win and the ending would be appropriate in more ways than one.

++ FORDIM

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Obviously, the weakness in my little plan is if Oddwen is the werewolf. However, if she is then she deserves to win and the ending would be appropriate in more ways than one.

And if you are the wolf, sir, then I do indeed doff my cap for having ended the run with a double-lynching.

But I'm still sure about Estel....

Pretty sure....

Sure enough....

*Fordim looks worried*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, well, well. Here's an interesting conclusion to what has been a blood-soaked week-and-a-half.

I have quite a detailed scene to type so I'll post it in a little while. I know you're on the edge of your seat....

[The Only Real Estel]

*Fordim looks worried*

As you should, as you should.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers were remarkably placid on this day of days. It would either signal a new beginning for Storyland, or it would be its final and darkest day. Only 4 remained, and they had decided that 2 would be put to death. The villagers shifted uneasily when they had to decide how to do this.

Finally, The Only Real Estel spoke up: "I will go first. I want to show Fordim that I am innocent. Granted, that will only make him feel worse due to his mistake in accusing me so, but I want to redeem myself in front of his eyes."

So up to the gallows he went. "What are you lot waiting for? Hang me!" he screamed.

Up stepped Kuruharan to tighten the noose. Before he pulled the lever, Estel spoke his last words: "To all those who are not wolves, I forgive you. Even my friend Fordim." Kuru pulled the lever, and the snap of Estel's neck resonated throughout the ghost town. He hung very still with melancholy in his eyes.

Kuru and Oddwen turned to Fordim and gave him a stern look. In return, all the loremaster could do was shuffle his feet and mutter "So......I guess I was wrong."

He offered no resistance (which didn't strike the other two as strange in any way) and they tied him up quickly. "Well, you had us fooled for a long time" said Kuru "but we've finally got you."

Within seconds Fordim Hedgethistle was dead, hanging side by side with The Only Real Estel.


The two remaining villagers stood long in silence.

"He's not a werewolf" said Kuruharan.

"No, he's definitely not." replied Oddwen.

"And neither was Estel"

"Evidently."

Turning to look at his friend, Kuruharan had the strangest feeling that he had been through this scene before, only now there was a cruel twist to that dream.

Oddwen just smiled the wickedest smile Kuruharan had ever seen. In the seconds before she transformed into a werewolf and leapt upon him, Kuruharan had time to reflect upon the folly of the villagers of Storyland. They had come so close to salvation. However, with the way things worked out, under the decisions of its inhabitants, Storyland was no more.


WEREWOLVES WIN!

[mormegil]

WOW!!!!


Well done Oddwen I think that you were the least suspicious of all. How did you do it? Man I was sure it was either Fordim or Estel. But I think it just shows how little I know about what is ever going on :rolleyes: .

I was certain at the end that the villagers may actually win this time. :(

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Nuts (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392781&postcount=273)! I knew it...at one time...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fordim, I just about choked on my tea when I read that post of yours. I was screaming out loud "He's got it, BY GOD HE'S GOT IT!!!!"

[The Only Real Estel]

Nuts indeed. :eek: I had given some thought to Oddwen, of course, but I thought it would be either Kuru or Fordim. Nicely done, Oddwen. Imagine, three wolves all in the same camp? :eek:

p.s. Blast, Fordim. If you would've brought up that theory again (I had forgotten about it) I would have gone with you on it & we could've orchestrated the greatest comeback in village history! Oh well. :)

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Fordim, I just about choked on my tea when I read that post of yours. I was screaming out loud "He's got it, BY GOD HE'S GOT IT!!!!"

No need to rub it in. I wish I could blame the other loudmouths for their steadfast refusal to believe in my theory... *glowers*

Or in their incessant desire to see me as some kind of mastermind wolf who could not be wholly trusted... *glowers*

But in the end, I can only blame myself for not having stuck to my conclusions when I just knew they were right.

DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN

As this game has utterly drained me I shan't even be able to think about playing again for a good while...but I will...and when I do, there isn't anyone who is going to shake me from my decisions!!

Stupid Fordim. Stupid! No donut for you!

[The Only Real Estel]

As this game has utterly drained me I shan't even be able to think about playing again for a good while...but I will...and when I do, there isn't anyone who is going to shake me from my decisions!!

I won't be able to play for at least a game, either. My parents were getting irritated at the time commitment & I think it would be suicidal to try to do it back-to-back.

p.s. Fordim, when you got on me about the stretches of time that I was silent I was like "SEE! See Mom! I have to get on NOW! I TOLD you this would happen!!!" :D

[The Saucepan Man]

Well done Shelob, Holbytlass and Oddwen! :)

Brilliant strategy - let the loudmouths direct all their energies in accusing each other, subtly encourage them in this and then sneak in and claim the game at the end. It worked a treat, mainly because loudmouth behaviour tends to make people suspicious (including the other loudmouths), particularly when it leads to innocent Villagers being lynched.

Wow! How wrong was I? I did suspect Shelob before turning on SoN, but never revisited that theory. I vaguely suspected Holbytlass at one point for her contrasting comments concerning lynching the quiet ones (oh, the irony), but never really pressed the point. But I don't think that I even considered that Oddwen might be a Wolf, except in passing.

I even began to suspect Fordim towards the end, thinking that he had offered up his felow "quiet" Wolves as a sacrifice in order to gain the other Villagers' trust when he was up against the final two. :rolleyes:

My one consolation is that Kuru was as wrong about me as I was about him. :D

[Kuruharan]

As this game has utterly drained me I shan't even be able to think about playing again for a good while...but I will...and when I do, there isn't anyone who is going to shake me from my decisions!!

Stupid Fordim. Stupid! No donut for you!

Tsk! When I did that people accused me of being closed minded. :rolleyes:

Really my preference would have been to lynch Oddwen but I was afraid to suggest it because I wasn't sure about anything and I thought I would be accused of trying to get her hung because I was a wolf. That would be disasterious because I thought our only hope was to hang two and I couldn't vote for myself (and that wouldn't have done any good anyway).

Oh well.

[The Only Real Estel]

If you would have proposed lynching Oddwen to me I probably would've gone along with you - I wasn't sure at all of Fordim, all I knew was you wouldn't vote for yourself. To tell you the truth I had kind've forgotten about Oddwen. :o

edit: One question, Eomer. Who was the cursed villager?

[Kuruharan]

Well, then, let this be a lesson to us all! Always act boldly and forget about the consequences! I should have stuck to my original behavior.

Full Speed Ahead, etc!!!! :D

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Son of Numenor was the cursed villager.


The guardian Firefoot protected:

The Saucepan Man on NIGHT 2

Fordim Hedgethistle on NIGHT 3 (that was the save)

Kuruharan on NIGHT 4 (the night she died)

[The Only Real Estel]

Wow, Fordim was right after all. Nice guess!

Is it just me or as SoN been "the cursed" twice in a row now?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's right.

It was bizarre how it worked out. All girls had a special role. The only role any boy had was the one he couldn't know about!

[The Only Real Estel]

It was bizarre how it worked out. All girls had a special role. The only role any boy had was the one he couldn't know about!

Hmm, I'm beginning to believe that the roles were not picked as randomly as they should've been & you are a radically feministic male. ;)

Btw, should we be posting on the original thread now & treating this thread basically as a closed thread?

[the phantom]

We should've killed them all on day two, Fordim.

Remember, you said this on that day-
One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…
And I answered...
I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop.
We should've done it. All three wolves would've been dead.

I always feared that the wolves were the quiet type, but since they were quiet we never had as good a reason to go for them as we did for each other (while I was still alive, anyway). That is the main reason I proposed my non-participation rule on the rules thread- to ensure that this sort of thing wouldn't happen again.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If you want to speak about this particular game then please do so here!

I for one would like to thank everyone involved for making it a very fun game. Over 9 pages of the stuff - wow! :D

[The Saucepan Man]

Fordim Hedgethistle on NIGHT 3 (that was the save)Well I'm glad that I got one thing right, at least. :D

Thank you, Eomer, for moderating the game with such flair. And thanks to everyone else involved (yes, even those who relentlessly accused me *coughKurucough* ;) ). It really was a classic game of Werewolf. Perhaps the best yet. :)

[Kuruharan]

yes, even those who relentlessly accused me *coughKurucough*

mumblemumble...well, you started it. We'd have been better off if everyone had tried to press their charges home and not tried to waffle... :p

[the guy who be short]

In the long run I suppose it was a good thing I got killed off early. Otherwise I'd have ruthlessly pursued our good Fordim until one of us died, making the other look guilty. :o

[The Saucepan Man]

We'd have been better off if everyone had tried to press their charges home and not tried to waffle...Waffle? Well my dear Dwarf, speaking for myself, it was serious analysis - meticulously researched, seamlessly logical, eminently supportable ...

... and almost entirely misguided. :rolleyes: :D

Edit: Btw, Fordim, did you really believe in your Day 1 proposals, or were they simply a device aimed at flushing out the Wolves? Although I stand by my rationale for opposing them, we might, as matters have turned out, done a lot better by implementing them. Although I do agree with Kuru's point that the shortlist is more akin to a rule change, as it requires the moderator's cooperation.

[Holbytlass]

It is , I, the 'smart wolf', the 'clumsy wolf', the 'shot in the heart by the great hunter-2nd to die wolf' here to explain a bit of our strategies....

By the 'death to quiet posters rule', it sounds like sour-grapes to me, The Phantom!! ;) Actually, I say go for the rule.

We didn't intend at the beginning for all of us be quiet. We had no real strategies at that point, and kind of went with the flow. Oddwen and Shelob are both students and had very limited time, TORE can relate. I had all the time in the world, but in the beginning it was no ploy. I honestly couldn't keep up. What with Fordim's 2 plans and others actually doing math problems!!

After a couple of days I did notice that the 'loud' talkers were accusing each other. When Fordim (I think it was) had brought up the quiet people's name, it did scare me. But it also dawned on me for all of us to keep as we were. Because it is still such a new game for most people, that there seems to be a theory of there being a 'loud in your face wolf', a 'middle normal-talk wolf', and the 'quiet under-radar wolf'. I knew that no one would think or believe that all 3 would be quiet. And I was right enough. My momma always said I was dumb like a fox. Although, Fordim's 'gut-statement' of all 3 being wolves being quiet was quite nerve-wracking.

Anyway, like I said, Phantom's rule ammendment of killing off those who do not say enough is fine with me. I am not playing the next one, I have to catch up on my sleep and practice the art of accusing with theories, quotes, and math!!

To my fellow sister-wolves, Oddwen and Shelob, it was a real pleasure killing with you both. I hope we remain friendly together on the Downs. :)

[Kuruharan]

it was serious analysis - meticulously researched, seamlessly logical, eminently supportable ...

... and almost entirely misguided.

Hmmm...that sounds vaguely familiar. I wonder why?

[the phantom]

By the 'death to quiet posters rule', it sounds like sour-grapes to me
No no. Sour grapes can only happen after the fact.

I put forth my non-participation rule well before a single wolf had been discovered.

[Holbytlass]

Point taken, Phantom. I hope you realized I was joking.
Sometimes, it's hard to remember that others don't know what's going on when you (yourself) do.

TORE will have to do one of his Tol signatures on the dangers of playing this game that it makes one accuse and be suspicious of people in our real lives! Or is it just me?

[Shelob]

Adding to Holbytlass' post...


We never really planned out our 'DAY' strategies more than to say things like "If you can try to put suspicion on _______" or "If you need to don't feel bad about voting for me"...because of this Fordim's post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=393128&postcount=329) where he accused Holbytlass and I together and said "There is simply too much evidence here of co-ordinated effort for it to be happenstance" was hysterically funny because it really was just coincidence that we had posted such similar ideas...

about that whole "the other quiet wolf mirrors the actions of her brilliant leader" idea though...Not Happy...(but I'm no longer indignant because of it, so all is forgiven.)


Finally, a thanks to all you 'loudmouths' out there. We never could have won without you. :p

[Holbytlass]

I do have a question for you, Fordim.
In the 'quiet' group, why were you the least suspicious of the most quiet one, Azalia?

[Evisse the Blue]

Turning to look at his friend, Kuruharan had the strangest feeling that he had been through this scene before, only now there was a cruel twist to that dream.
Hahahaha! :D Funny how things work out sometimes.

Great game, you guys!

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

To answer some questions:

Yes SpM, my proposals on Day One were serious and, as you point out, would probably have yielded better results for the innocents, if not nearly so riveting a game. As you can see, the villagers have to act as a group within a well-defined strategy and not as individuals if they are to have a chance of winning. As final proof of this, I would cite my own (stupidstupidstupid) descent into Playing Big Hero at the end when I thought I could win the game all on my own, and turned my attention away from the big picture toward individual-based strategies designed to show how smart I am, and not really directed toward analysing general trends.

I did not suspect Azaelia, Holby because I could not find any great evidence that she was working with anyone else. Or, rather, I found a lot more evidence of collusion amongst the real wolves.

Which leads me to Shelob...dear, dear Shelob...the fact that the wolves sounded alike may not have been purposeful, but it was still to be expected. You were wolves in the same village, responding to the same situation: of course you reacted and acted similarly. As to the jibes about "smarter" wolves, that was gamesmanship: I was more sure of Holby's guilt than I was of yours (which is why I wanted to go after her on the first lynching -- why oh why did I let TORE's change to that plan blind me!?!?) and I thought that if I riled you a bit you might ruffle visibly. It is greatly to your credit that you did not.

At any event, the wolves won and they did so superbly. But I will cling to my own shred of pride in having identified them halfway through the game. I guess I need to work on my strategies for carrying through with my conclusions!

Good Game All!

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I apologise for double-posting but it has just occured to me:

The danger for the villagers is acting as individuals.

The danger for the wolves is acting as a group.

The way to defeat the villagers, then, is to get them to act as individually as possible.

The way to defeat the wolves, then, is to get them to act as a group.

[Holbytlass]

Thanks for the answer, Fordim. I was a little worried about you, that if Oddwen came out on top, that you would have a heart attack on seeing how insanely correct you were!! Good to see you alive and posting.

Awww!! Thanks, Estel, for actually doing my suggestion for your sig. It's great!!

And here, Eomer, is something to make you feel better about your blunder, the seer and HER dreams. When Fordim had been saved by Firefoot that night, I forgot about the guardian. I almost P.M.'ed him welcoming him to our pack!!
It was also hard not to mention Fordim in reference to any guarding, as only the guardian and wolves would know. :D

[Shelob]

"I thought that if I riled you a bit you might ruffle visibly. It is greatly to your credit that you did not."

I rarely 'ruffle' visibly in speach. Had we been, however, in the same room I assure you your ploy would have worked wonderfully.

[Holbytlass]

Shelob and I posted one minute apart!! IT MUST BE A FUTURE OMEN!!
*dripping in funny irony*

[Shelob]

" the dangers of playing this game that it makes one accuse and be suspicious of people in our real lives! Or is it just me?"

It might be just you, I certainly didn't have that problem...I did however run into a more unique problem...I watched Agatha Christie's The Mousetrap the same day I was lynched. Throughout the play I kept thinking things like "Now if Saucepan Man there were the murderer then..."

I don't know which was worse, the fact that this game had so invaded my life or the fact that I now picture us all snowed in at a guest house. :rolleyes: *sighs* oh well...

[Oddwen]

Thank you, thank you, thank you. This was a really fun game!

Shelob and Holby, it was a true joy to wreak havoc with you two. Grrrrrrr-l power!

I was laughing so hard this whole game...every new theory had me rolling on the floor. Thank you especially to SpM, Fordim, and dear dear Kuru. :D ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Holby m'dear, I'm so sorry: I forgot about your EYES!!!! :o :D

That would have been pretty disastrous if you had PMd Fordim - did you realise the mistake as you were typing? I had considered PMing the wolves to make sure they knew that they had been foiled. Little did I realise how important that might have been!

[Holbytlass]

I had asked Eomer in the event of my death, if he would put something in about my eyes, that could be my signature death. That's fine, I had forgotten it myself. The irony of this is that I totally freak out in real-life about any sort of eye-injury. I love to watch operations except anything to do with eyes.

I was reading the posts after Firefoot's save of Fordim. Someone had mentioned both scenarios, so that's what saved me. I know I would have put in all our names!
I'm glad you didn't P.M. to let us know. It was kinda of fun thinking and wondering and hoping. After awhile though, it's obvious we didn't get the cursed because Fordim had not contacted us. And it would have been quite funny to see the turn of events had I made that fatal blunder.

Another thing, we didn't kill TGWBS to cast suspicion on Forim. He just happened to be the first one killed who wasn't a major accuser or suspicious person.

[The Saucepan Man]

When Fordim had been saved by Firefoot that night, I forgot about the guardian. I almost P.M.'ed him welcoming him to our pack!!Yes, one of the benefits of being an innocent (and entirely ordinary) Villager is that you don't have to be so careful what you say. Most of the time, I just posted my thoughts and opinions honestly and openly (although, given the direction in which they took me, they were what led to me being a major suspect for most of the time that I was playing).

Another thing, we didn't kill TGWBS to cast suspicion on Forim. He just happened to be the first one killed who wasn't a major accuser or suspicious person.Of course, a disadvantage of being an innocent Villager is that you read suspicious motives in everything that is said or done ... :rolleyes:

[Evisse the Blue]

I guess that the beauty of games like this, and especially of this particular game, is that you get to watch brilliant minds at work, analysing everything with the clarity of reason and common sense and coming to the wrong conclusion. :D

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Many of you were unintentionally hilarious in your misplaced certainty. ;) :p

Especially Kuruharan.

[mormegil]

Many of you were unintentionally hilarious in your misplaced certainty. ;) :p

Especially Kuruharan.

Yes yes it's so easy to laugh at us blind villagers accuse each other while you have omnipotence in the situation. Reading some non-players say "Oh I have my thoughts" or "I know who I would be going for" I just want to scream "AHHHHHH!!!" It's so much more difficult when you're in the game and trying to make sense of anything let alone everything said. I think it's analogous to a game show--so easy for the viewers at home but difficult when you're actually up on stage. :)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I can talk the talk but........

"Ainaserkewen is definitely a werewolf. It's so obvious." - (yours truly).

:D

One vivid memory I have is gasping in horror when I realised that Evisse was going to be killed.

[The Saucepan Man]

Especially Kuruharan.Although it wasn't entirely unreasonable. I pretty much knew that I was on the way out as soon as SoN was lynched and found to be innocent. I was surprised that it ended up being the phantom and not me on Day 3.

[Kuruharan]

Many of you were unintentionally hilarious in your misplaced certainty.

Especially Kuruharan.

You play long enough and it will happen to you. The villagers from this time will all be watching you now. ;) :p

I was surprised that it ended up being the phantom and not me on Day 3.

You weren't the only one. :rolleyes:

In the future, now that you and I have proved that one can go about willy-nilly hanging innocents left and right and get away with it, everyone is going to have to be watching for werewolves trying to pull that trick.

[Shelob]

" I was surprised that it ended up being the phantom and not me on Day 3." ~SPM

I at least wanted to keep you alive as long as possible...the way I saw it after Evisse's death you were the only person standing between me and the gallows...so long as you were alive and suspicious why would anyone look to me, once you died and were proven innocent who would get the blame for our seer's death? Me. (Hence my seemingly random vote for Phantom)

[Holbytlass]

That's a major reason why our simple strategy worked so well this time around. We wolves were so 'laid back' in a village of analitical over-thinking (I don't mean this in any sort of offensive manner).

Even if we had lost, I was very proud of us being able to stump the village for awhile. :D

[Holbytlass]

Good Grief!! See, see, it is just coincidence that we post at the same time!!

[The Saucepan Man]

I at least wanted to keep you alive as long as possible...Indeed. I had no doubt that I was enrolled on a Werewolf-managed life-support programme. At least I knew that I was pretty safe during the Nights. :D

[Shelob]

Since I was just reminded of it I figured you guys might be interested in *dramatic music* The Origin Of Storyland (http://www.storylandnh.com/index-flash.html)

or if that's not working because you don't have flash or it's too slow or something you can just go look at the map (http://www.storylandnh.com/viewMap.html?m=park&id=117)


(In case your wondering I spent many of my summers there when I was younger...but never saw any werewolves)

[Holbytlass]

Here's another thing I remembered that people might get a kick out of.....
Bear in mind this not to discredit Eomer at all, he is a worthy mod. This is just to show how insane one may get when trying to figure things out on days of little sleep...

On the night that we killed mormegil, before we had even made a choice, I for one was so hoping to get the cursed villager. When I was looking at Eomer's latest list of who was left alive...I...um...I thought he was giving us a clue. I noticed that Eomer spelled mormegil with a lower case 'm' and everyone else's names with caplitals. Until I saw that's how mormegil did spell his name. Pathetic!! :D Yes, I admit I was grasping at straws; and my dear wolf-friend Shelob pointed out I was grasping at invisible straws!!

[mormegil]

Yes may I ask why I did go that night? I thought that perhaps I cast sufficient suspicion on me to avoid you but apparently not.

Also about the lower case m...that is a sore spot with me and I wish it could be changed. I didn't realize that I had done so until after the registration process.

[the phantom]

I am finished with my traditional post-game summary on my Random Thoughts (http://www.freewebs.com/phantombarrowdowns/randomthoughts.htm) page.

Enjoy...

[The Saucepan Man]

Phantom, in response to your wondering why you were such a prime suspect on the first three Days, I believe (although you were not top of my suspects and my vote for you was out of necessity) that this was primarily because of your experience at playing this game, which makes you dangerous in the eyes of innocent Villager and Werewolf alike, your "flip-flop" on Fordim's proposals, and your defensiveness in response to the accusations made against you.

You are certainly correct that being a prime suspect ties one's hands to a significant degree. This was the reason that I did not bother making any accusations or go overboard in trying to defend myself on Day 3 and just focussed on trying to appear innocent (which I was). I hoped that this would put me in a better position on Day 4, but alas it was not to be.

[Holbytlass]

After we, Oddwen Shelob and I, decided to lay low it became apparent who to kill at night and who to leave to be hanged (hopefully) in the day.

Indeed. I had no doubt that I was enrolled on a Werewolf-managed life-support programme. At least I knew that I was pretty safe during the Nights. :D Very true, and so was Fordim, Kuru, and The Phantom because of there very fierce suspicions and finger-pointing at each other.
Azalia was on this list because even though most didn't suspect her, we needed a little bit of padding in our 'quiet' group.

That left the 'middle' group of TORE, SoN, Mormegil, TGWBS and Firefoot to choose from. Shelob saved our p.m.'s, so she could find out specifically why we chose you, Mormegil, on that particular night.

And I'm sorry, Evisse, the others hanged you to soon to know which group you would have been in!

Edit: Just read Phantom's page....hostility afterwards,hm.
All I can say is that if the rules are changed to kill off quiet people, that's fine. I certainly will follow any rule to be able to play. I don't regret using that strategy and I still think it is a good one, even if we had lost. There is no rule saying we have to use one kind of strategy. What's going to happen if a future pack of wolves decide for all to be 'loud', will there be a 'limited number of posts' rule?
I'm sorry if people have played it elsewhere and differently and didn't think of various strategies until too late, but I will not apologize for the opportunity we took!

[the guy who be short]

Holbytlass, you claimed that I was killed because I was one of the "Middle-people." Did you conceive your loudmouth plan that early in the game, seeing as I was killed first?
I thought I was fairly loud, actually... :p

And don't worry, I won't be implementing any quietness rules next game at least. There will be a participation rule though (looks at Azaelia ;)).

[Holbytlass]

TGWBS: No, we didn't have our plan that early on. I suppose now I shouldn't necessarily put you on that list. I have misplaced my notes from the first days, I will have to get together with Oddwen and Shelob and write up why we killed a person when we did.

[the phantom]

your defensiveness in response to the accusations made against you
I entirely reject the notion that defensiveness is suspicious. If you are a common villager then the only thing you know for sure is that you are innocent, therefore when there is no reason for people to lynch you, you should be extremely adamant about it.

Certainly more adamant than you are about who is a wolf, since you obviously don't know who is, where as you do know you are innocent.

Surely that makes sense?

Especially in my case, where (as I explain in my review) I had no concrete evidence against me. I would be a fool not to scream it out.
I don't regret using that strategy and I still think it is a good one
Yes, it was a perfect strategy. If you don't say anything then logically there will never be more evidence to lynch you than to lynch someone else. As a matter of fact, if all our lynchings had to be based on some sort of evidence (votes or statements), then the perfect strategy would be not to post at all.

But that's a bit silly and it is why my friends and I play with a non-participation rule.
What's going to happen if a future pack of wolves decide for all to be 'loud', will there be a 'limited number of posts' rule?
I doubt it. This game is all about finding wolves based upon who people have been implicating, defending, and voting for, therefore it is unlikely anyone would ever object to people being extremely forthcoming and forceful with their thoughts because it clearly defines their position. The purpose of a non-participation rule is to ensure that everyone takes some sort of position. After all, we are supposed to be making our accusation based upon the positions of others. So, there will probably never be a rule against having a very clear position. Only having no position is a significant obstacle.

That is why I suggested killing all of you on day two. I saw the lack of information coming from the quiet ones as a large obstacle, whether you were guilty or not. But, as I said on my review, there was no way I could possibly orchestrate a mass lynching, so it didn't matter what I wanted to do.

[mormegil]

I entirely reject the notion that defensiveness is suspicious. If you are a common villager then the only thing you know for sure is that you are innocent, therefore when there is no reason for people to lynch you, you should be extremely adamant about it.

I will have to disagree Phantom. As one of the leaders in the "lynch phantom" corner I saw your squirming similar to Firefoot's when I was the seer and knew her to be the wolf. She herself said so this game too.

I don't see a problem in defending yourself but the louder you shout "I'M INNOCENT" the less likely I am to believe you.

[the phantom]

I saw your squirming similar to Firefoot's when I was the seer and knew her to be the wolf
I wasn't "squirming". I was forcefully stating facts.
I don't see a problem in defending yourself but the louder you shout "I'M INNOCENT" the less likely I am to believe you.
Why? Saying it louder or softer does not change any the evidence, votes, facts, and such.

If two people say the same thing they should be treated equally. If you suspect one of them more than the other based on something other than what they have said and what it means, you are obviously allowing something other than information to influence your thinking.

It doesn't matter if they use caps to make their case. The only thing that should matter is what they say.

And I would remind you that the reason I started getting so loud was because all of the things I was saying appeared to be bouncing right off everyone and not sinking in.

If people are ignoring my points don't be surprised if I get loud.

[The Saucepan Man]

But you have to adapt to take into account the attitudes of the people you are playing with, phantom. If people (rightly or wrongly) regard overly defensive behaviour as suspicious, then you have to take that into account.

Personally, I do regard a overly defensive behaviour as a possible sign of guilt, because in my view Villagers shoud be prepared to die (either by the noose or the claw) if it will help the other Villagers to win. It can also be counter-productive if a Villager spends so much time in defence that they neglect to try to find the clues. That's just my opinion, but it will have a bearing on the way that I play and, if it is shared by other players, then the overly defensive do risk finding themselves under suspicion.

[mormegil]

Well I will admit that I'm rather dull witted but I will say that the reaction I saw in you gave me more reason to assume your guilt. I know that you don't agree with it but that's the impression I had.

[the phantom]

Personally, I do regard a overly defensive behaviour as a possible sign of guilt, because in my view Villagers shoud be prepared to die
But only for a good reason, my dear SP.

My death offered nothing since both of my previous votes had been forced, not to mention, as someone pointed out on that day, I was very distanced from everyone else so my death would not implicate anyone.

Even if you do think that we should consider how people say things, how something was said should never take precedence over what was said.

The primary charges leveled against me on day three were 1) I had received votes before, 2) I had voted for the two people who were lynched, and 3) they had voted for me, too.

I demonstrated quite logically that those three points were meaningless (now that the game is over I hope everyone can now see that), but since people were letting what was said to take a back seat to other things, my logic went right past them.

Then, hoping that people would take notice of the substance of my arguments, I repeated them all with a raised voice. But it did not make them listen. Instead, they said that raising my voice made me look guiltier.

At that point I wanted to strangle everyone and began to feel rather hostile towards my own village, so I screamed my arguments again out of desperation hoping that what I said would finally be noticed.

But the what remained firmly behind the how in the minds of the villagers, and I was lynched.

Not putting an emphasis on what I said resulted in an extremely useless slaying, and I imagine that similar behavior will result in similar results in future games.

[mormegil]

The primary charges leveled against me on day three were 1) I had received votes before, 2) I had voted for the two people who were lynched, and 3) they had voted for me, too.

I demonstrated quite logically that those three points were meaningless (now that the game is over I hope everyone can now see that), but since people were letting what was said to take a back seat to other things, my logic went right past them.

Feeling that this comment is directed at me I will say that those weren't the primary factors in my vote. I suspected you since day 1. My main suspicion was based on you notorious flip-flop with your reasoning given. Also you have stated that votes are solid evidence so why not look at the fact that you voted for two innocents whether your vote was "forced" or not. It's easy to say that you were forced to vote that way but it could have also been that you were a wolf and were waiitng to see who you could kill to save yourself.

[Shelob]

"Shelob saved our p.m.'s, so she could find out specifically why we chose you, Mormegil, on that particular night." ~Holbytlass

Yes I did, unfortunately due to being rushed often they're not all in order...which makes reading them a headache...

If you are curious though the reasoning behind Mormegil's death was that either Mormegil or Fordim would be the best kill that night and that Fordim was probably "out of the running for our next kill because he has hit closest so far and it would be suspicious for him to die...we'll risk a lot keeping him alive I just think we'll risk more should we kill him..."

If you want for us to go through and list why we killed who we killed I'll gladly do it, but unfortunately I likely own't be able to get it posted before saturday morning (I've work this evening and school tomorrow--so maybe Friday evening I can do it)...but let me know.

[the guy who be short]

I would like to know if there was more behind choosing me that first night than just randomly pointing a finger. However, I'm in no hurry, so take your time. :)

[the phantom]

Feeling that this comment is directed at me
You weren't the only one, so don't take the entire weight of my comments upon yourself. There are those you should share it with.
My main suspicion was based on you notorious flip-flop with your reasoning given.
Then why did you not mention it even once on the day you lynched me?

You asked why I did it on day one and I explained (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=391831&postcount=87) my reasoning, and I considered it pretty much burried after that. Plus, why would you be more suspicious of someone who had reversed positions on a seer-killing plan more than someone who had written a seer-killing plan? If that day one plan was you big concern, you definitely should've been gunning for Fordim.

But since you didn't mention it on day three I don't see how it was a factor.

However, I can see how someone looking back trying to justify their vote could think "Hmm, well... I must've suspected him because of that day one flip-flop. Yeah- that must've been it" when actually you weren't thinking about that at the time I was lynched.

I'm not sure if that is the case with you or not. Either way, it seems odd that my reaction to the plan was never mentioned if it was indeed the primary reason for your vote.
Also you have stated that votes are solid evidence so why not look at the fact that you voted for two innocents whether your vote was "forced" or not.
The fact that it was forced is what makes all the difference!

If there is no choice involved then there can be no guilt assigned.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

My dear dear Phantom.

Still at it, I see.

Rather than expending all your energy on explaining why we shouldn't have found you a suspicious character, perhaps it would be better spent on looking in the mirror and deciding how to amend your gamesmanship so that you do not appear guilty in the future....

[the phantom]

perhaps it would be better spent on looking in the mirror and deciding how to amend your gamesmanship so that you do not appear guilty in the future....
Well, if I were to assume that I was at fault, my corrective action would have to be this- in the future, if someone accuses me of being guilty for a non-reason, I should not object.

Hmm... that sounds like a very silly plan, Fordim.

It is an indisputable fact that the main reasons people stated for lynching me on day three, while I'm sure they sounded good upon first hearing, do not logically hold any water when examined carefully.

It is ludicrous to expect someone to sit back and accept such a thing.

If, in the next game, several people say they think you are a wolf because your name starts with an "F", would you honestly not tell everyone "That is a very silly reason!"?

Of course you would tell them that, and I would be right there beside you telling them to leave you alone.

When false evidence is used to sentence someone to death, the rational reaction is to jump up and point it out.

When it appears that your objections were not understood, it is the rational reaction to restate it again forcefully.

When the second attempt is seemingly ignored, it is the rational reaction to become completely frustrated and desperate.

Why should I amend my completely rational behavior?

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Good game, all! I'm sorry I wasn't more active, but my real, non-Storyland life got in the way big time. Now, summer is here and school is pretty much over! So I will be able to be much more active next time around. (And I'd better be, too, what with the new rule!)

I'm actually astounded that I wasn't lynched or dismembered sooner. Of the quiet people, I was the quietest, and sometimes was missing from the vote entirely. I didn't at all expect to last as long as I did.

[The Saucepan Man]

The phantom is getting defensive again. I am suspicious of him. :p :D

As I have said, phantom, I had no particular reason to suspect you, and my vote was primarily based on self-preservation. But the vigour with which you defended yourself on that day did make me wonder whether we might finally have found a Wolf. It's perfectly proper to point out why you think the accusations being made against you are groundless, but to do so repetitively and at length seemed to me to be strange. As an innocent Villager, I feel that one eventually has to accept either that people have taken one's points on board and dismissed them (rightly or wrongly) or that they are never going to take them on board, and concentrate instead on developing alternative theories. But everyone has a different approach, as I said earlier.

I did feel at the time that the Villagers made a mistake in only giving serious consideration to two Villagers that day (you and me - both innocent), but that was because I knew that I was innocent and had no strong reason to suspect you. However, I can see and understand why it happened that way.

We all feel rather aggrieved when we are wrongly lynched. We think the other Villagers are silly to do so because we know we are innocent and that such evidence as there is pointing at us is circumstantial. But there's no point in taking it too personally. And it seems rather redundant to continue making the arguments now that the game is over. The fact is, whatever the merits of your arguments, a sufficent number of innocent Villagers rejected them to result in your being lynched.

[Holbytlass]

And some wonder why we were so quiet :rolleyes: , because it was so easy!! ;)

No, it would have looked too suspicious if Phantom did actually push for the tied lynchings of the quiet group, but it would have been spectacular had it been pulled off!

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

++the Phantom

[the phantom]

The phantom is getting defensive again.
NO I'M NOT!!!!

Umm...I mean... :p

As you can see, I didn't act any different in the game than I usually do. Don't I have a reputation here on the Downs for being generally rigid and uncompromising?

I certainly hope I do. I try awfully hard at it.
and my vote was primarily based on self-preservation
Of course it was. It was your duty to vote for me since you knew you were innocent where as you did not know I was. No harm done.
I feel that one eventually has to accept either that people have taken one's points on board and dismissed them (rightly or wrongly) or that they are never going to take them on board
Let me be the first to tell you that I am not very good at accepting things.
And it seems rather redundant to continue making the arguments now that the game is over.
Much of what I am saying is in response to other people's posts- such as this post which is responding to your post.

And the primary focus of this discussion is not my lynching and the evidence that led to it, but the way I defended myself. If it was the former, then it would agree that this is overkill, but debating methods of defense is something that could have a legitimate effect upon later games and help in the understanding of villager behavior in the future, so I don't apologize for discussing it in detail.
it would have looked too suspicious if Phantom did actually push for the tied lynchings of the quiet group
Yes, that's exactly why I didn't try it.
++the Phantom
:p

Great. I'm even a suspect when we're not playing. I just can't catch a break.

[The Only Real Estel]

At that point I wanted to strangle everyone and began to feel rather hostile towards my own village

We noticed. ;)

Eventually I decided that your behavior was just to un-wolf like for you, although I was to thick-headed to come to that conclusion in enough time to save you any votes, I think. And now the next time I play you will probably be a wolf & act the same way so that I won't suspect you. I hate this game. :rolleyes: :p

[Oddwen]

And as time grew nearer to the next Werewolf game, the phantom was led up to the noose in high anticipation.

"You're making a mistake!" he cried angrily, as they placed the rope around his neck.

"I don't think so," sneered Morm. "You are undeniably arrogant - a sure sign of a wolf if ever I saw one."

"This was part of my plan all along," explained Fordim.

"I'm only doing this in self defence, old bean," said The Saucepan Man airily as he tied the last fatal knot.

And with that last perfunctory comment, the handle was pulled, the body dropped, and the neck was snapped. The noise hung on the suddenly still air ominously.

"Hmm," said TGWBS. "It looks like he wasn't a wolf after all."

"That's what I've been saying!" said the phantom fumed from his awkward position, his burning eyes barely visible over the platform. "Now you fools have gone and killed another innocent! I should have amended my post to include all of you!"

"But then there'd be only you left," offered Firefoot helpfully.

"Duh! And the villagers would have won this time, wouldn't they?" roared the lynchee, struggling to free himself.

"He's not dead!" said Zali, disappearing as fast as she had appeared.

"I've always liked you," said ToREstel nervously as the knots began to loosen.

"Hey," protested Fordim as he looked at the rope from a safe distance. "That noose is nothing but a giant loophole!"

"Can we hang the Saucepan now?" asked Kuru hopping around in glee.

"Do you suppose," whispered Shelob to Holby and Oddwen, "That we could start taking them out one by one without anyone noticing?"

"Let's loot their houses first," whispered Oddwen.
-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-
I'm sorry...that was a very silly post. :rolleyes:

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

++ODDWEN

[Oddwen]

Flip-flopping, eh Fordim? :p

And something...something to make this on-topic...

TGWBS - as far as I know, offing you was kind of a snub against Fordim - just obvious enough to not be blatant, yet not subtle enough to escape notice...and a brilliant move, as it turned out.
I voted for Morm or Estel that night, however.

[Firefoot]

Hey all, great game everyone! I wish I could have posted sooner but I've been out of town the past few days.

Phantom - I did have a real reason for pushing for your lynching, except I couldn't say it out. When I decided to guard Fordim, it was on the assumption that you were a werewolf. In order to decide who to guard it was useful to have an idea of who the wolves were, and you were my only suspect during Night 3 (I don't particularly remember why). So when nobody died that night, I went on the assumption that Fordim had been guarded, and that you were in fact a werewolf. So that was my real reasoning - not the hunches and feelings that I was trying to outline (though they were contributing...) Hope this clears things up. :)

So great game everyone, well-played, werewolves!

[Shelob]

NIGHT 1--Eomer dies...and blames us for it :rolleyes: ...Thus the werewolf hunt begins.



NIGHT 2--TGWBS killed

This night began with a lot of general talking...though we all seemed to agree imediately that Fordim should not be killed. Oddwen had to leave early but left saying that she was all for TORE's death. After that I became obsessed with the fact that I had posted the first vote for the seer and immediately said "who do you guys want to kill tonight...NOT SAUCEPAN MAN! he's the only one between me and the gallows tomorrow..." (which basically became my mantra for the rest of the game...and it proved true, Saucepan Man is lynched and I'm the next one on the gallows)...Between the two of us Holbytlass and I looked at the pros and cons for killing various people and finally decided on TGWBS simply because he seemed like a "vague enough player [...] not to bring suspicion on any of us"...we did take into account the whole bluff/double-bluff idea with fordim but basically left it at the level of 'if they go for it Fordim's out...if not it's unlikely to cast shadows of doubt on to us and will only cause confusion'.



NIGHT 3--Fordim was to be killed

I think I first suggested Fordim for this night's kill with the theory that all his death would do is prove him innocent and thus throw a cog into everyone's current suspicions. It would also leave you guys with no real pattern to the kills; Kill someone opposed to Fordim, Kill Fordim...doesn't make a lot of sense. Saucepan Man and Kuru were also being debated for this nights Kill and Oddwen was still after TORE (though had also added Firefoot to her list). Eventually Holby made the final choice saying "i think we should kill fordim. everyone has basically thinks hes innocent now, except phantom".

>>Quite possibly the best thing ever said in a werewolf related PM conversation was Oddwen's "Gee, perhaps we should be asking ourselves "What
Would the phantom Do?""
(EDIT: Having originally typed this up before seeing Firefoot's last post this has since become even funnier)



NIGHT 4--Firefoot was killed

Initially this night began with Oddwen and I giving each other reasons why
we should re-kill Fordim. Fortunately (well...for us) Holby came on and suggested that we were missing a key point in our plotting. She suggested that the guardian was someone who hadn't really suspected Fordim (or who had thought him innocent) during the preceeding DAY. After almost five hours without further werewolf plotting I suggested that Firefoot and Mormegil had suspected Fordim least (I say 'suggested' here because I was basically falling asleep in my chair when I said that and couldn't be bothered to actually check). Initially after that Oddwen agreed that Firefoot would work while Holbutlass was leaning still more towards Fordim or Mormegil. Holby then suggests Azalia (again..I think she came up every night) and realizing that both Oddwen and I were long since asleep sent in a request for Firefoot's death saying it wasn't fair to suggest someone else when we couldn't debate it.



NIGHT 5--Mormegil was killed (my last night)

I already went over this above...in case you want it again here it is:

the reasoning behind Mormegil's death was that either Mormegil or Fordim would be the best kill that night and that Fordim was probably "out of the running for our next kill because he has hit closest so far and it would be suspicious for him to die...we'll risk a lot keeping him alive I just think we'll risk more should we kill him..."



NIGHT 6--Azaelia was killed

I'm not really sure why they chose Azaelia...all I got was one PM from Holby wondering why TORE went with me instead of her and then one PM simply giving 'Another thing about Azaelia' and saying that Holby was about to PM Eomer with the choice. I assume Holby sent me these just to keep me in the werewolf loop (Ha!..that's said like 'Loup' which is French for 'Wolf'...sorry) In any case I responded to the first one just saying that it had been nice playing with them and have since wondered why I got the second one at all...for further reasoning behind Azaelia's death Holbytlass or Oddwen will have to fill you in.



I think that's everything...If I missed anything that they feel needs to be mentioned my fellow Ex-werewolves should let me know. Elsewise this is why we killed who we killed when we killed them.

[the phantom]

Thanks for the report, Shelob. You wolves made good choices. Early in the game it can be a toss up sometimes depending on which way you want to take things, but after you get going in the later stages of the game you can really start doing some serious picking and choosing.

In your position I imagine I would have killed Firefoot, Morm, and Azalia exactly as you did. Once again, good choices.

And Oddwen- very funny. :D

[Holbytlass]

Thanks, Shelob, for writing up the report for us.
That last night we chose Azalia over Estel because Estel voted for Shelob and I thought perhaps Estel might think me innocent. I certainly got it good for that choice!!
And we reformed wolves are going into business selling WWPD bracelets. Any takers?
Very funny, Oddwen! You'd make a great werewolf mod also.