Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...) [Archive] - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-03-2005, 12:32 PM

Fiendish wolves! Beasts! Murderers!

All right, so now we have to figure out how we’re going to catch these monsters before they devour us all – more importantly, we have to figure out how we’re going to catch these monsters before we do their dirty work for them by lynching one another. As the village loremaster, I’ve spent a lot of time in study on theoretical matters of risk/reward, and I’ve read many chronicles of the past; I do not claim to know the mind of a monster, but I do know that if we don’t work together, they will be able to destroy us one at a time.

Here’s the situation, as I see it. On our side are numbers – and when I say “our side” I mean of course the innocent villagers not you hairy brutes who hide amongst us. So on our side are numbers, and on theirs is information: the wolves know precisely who is a wolf and who is an innocent, and that’s their one real advantage, for while the rest of us are working in the dark they can silently prowl about, nudging us in one direction or another. We need to correct that – we need solid information rather than guesswork or intuition.

Let’s face it, at the beginning of the game there’s little-to-nothing for us to base our judgements on. How and whom people accuse might be genuine or it might be a bluff; it could be a bluff-in-a-bluff: maybe one person accuses another to hide something, to misdirect, or in a genuine move. How someone is “behaving” might be the result of cunning, naivete, a particular strategy, or honesty. The important thing that we have to realise from the outset is that we can’t know anything for certain – only the werewolves have that luxury.

So at the outset the advantage is entirely the wolves’ – their best strategy is to sit back and let the villagers lynch someone without interference from them: since the choice of who to lynch is utterly random (at first) the odds are wildly in the wolves’ favour: and by the time the odds are getting more even, the villagers have lost the game! So how to defeat them…?

Change the odds.

In order to determine who is what, we need hard information. Not speculation or theories; no spurious “logic” or bizarrely convoluted lines of reasoning through the “evidence”, but verifiable facts. And the only facts of this nature that exist in this situation are the votes. Whom one accuses or suspects is irrelevant: again, the speculations could be strategic, bluffs, guesswork, random or arrived at through the kind of spurious reasoning we need to avoid if we are going to survive. How one votes however is a real fact that we can look at to determine patterns and allegiances. So we need to find a way to make the vote work for us and not against us.

The one thing we absolutely must avoid in these early rounds is consensus. If we all move toward voting for the same person, then the wolves will laugh themselves silly. If by some stroke of fortune we are voting for a wolf, the other two can easily hide by joining with us in the vote – if it’s clear their counterpart is going to die anyway, they throw in their lots with us and win the appearance of innocence, falsely casting doubt on any who abstain or vote another way. If we are voting for an innocent, then the wolves’ options increase: they can cast their vote with us, or abstain or even vote another way and use that later as “evidence” that they are innocents too. We need to force their hands…paws.

This is how I would suggest we do that: we ask the mod to randomly select three names for a short list of nominees for lynching. We need this to be a random selection to make sure that the wolves (who know who is guilty or innocent) are as likely to be among the three as are we innocents. Like I said above, the one thing we have to avoid is consensus, so to make sure we spread the votes around we institute the following rules:

First, there will be a short-list for the next round of voting, and this list will be made up of everyone who votes for the lynched person, if that person is an innocent. (If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will – we should generate another random list for the second round.) This means that voting to lynch someone carries a real threat of danger: the wolves will be in as much danger from the vote as will the innocents – if they want to kill a particular person, they will have to think long and hard about whether they want to automatically be in the short list for next time!

Second, anyone who does not vote is also added to the short-list. We need to force the wolves to vote, and to vote in a way that is meaningful – that’s the only way we can catch them out.

I would recommend that we do this same process until we catch a werewolf – we will then have sufficient information about the wolf’s voting record, which we can match up with the voting records of other people. The purpose of this strategy is that at best it will give the wolves’ less room to manoeuvre and we can catch them out; the worst case scenario is that developing our own strategy will force the wolves to vote according to our rules and not according to their hidden agenda. With a level playing field, our advantage in numbers becomes a true advantage.

One more idea in this already long diatribe: our seer. Whoever they are, they are our greatest asset, but we can’t really use them. The seer has to be extremely guarded in their actions unless they bring down the wolves on them – this means that if the seer is eaten, the evidence left behind might be somewhat fragmentary (“did the seer accuse this person because of a vision or as a gambit?”). We can help the seer by providing camouflage: after each night, we should all declare the results of our “seer vision” – that is, each one of us will put up the name of one other person and whether that person is innocent or a wolf as though each of us is the seer. In these moments, the real seer MUST always tell the absolute truth: this will make it possible for the seer to flag the truth for the other innocents while hiding from the wolves. This might make the seer more visible to the Wolves as the game goes on, but if they know that the seer is leaving behind the real results of true visions with each and every round, to kill the seer is to identify them, which will mean that we will have the benefit of hard information from each seer vision. To kill the seer becomes a terrible risk for the wolves, and not a benefit. As information emerges (through lynchings and wolf attacks) the other villagers will also be in a position to figure out who is the seer alongside the wolves, so perhaps the seer won’t have to die before we can use their information to bag a hairy monster, or two, or three…

Obviously, for these strategies to work, we are all going to have to subscribe to them – so what do you all think? The one thing we must do is work together if we are to have any hope of destroying these monsters. We are our own worst enemies at the moment…

the phantom

06-03-2005, 12:38 PM

Eomer was the first to die?! I'm shocked! :p

(you can add me as the town crier if you wish, Eomer- as long as you are meaning a law official and not the town moper or weeper)

So, another werewolf attack, eh? I heard that the two villages up the road got taken out by those beasts. There wasn't an army of them though- it was never more than a group of three. But that was enough.

It seems that they did quite a bit of their damage during the day, getting the townspeople to lynch innocents. We must not allow that to happen here.

But how can we avoid it this first day? Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark".

Seeing as there is no use in logic, we must go with our guts on this day.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go take a walk and figure out what my gut is trying to tell me (if anything).

Firefoot

06-03-2005, 12:57 PM

Fordim, your strategy would be excellent for flushing out werewolves if it were mathematically sound. There is a ratio of roughly 4 villagers:1 werewolf; a list of three random people is more likely to include three innocent villagers than even two villagers and one werewolf. At odds of 2 villagers:1 werewolf, such a theory would be plausible, but with only about one-fifth of the people being a werewolf, the odds are pretty bad.

I suppose they're bad anyway, but I'd rather be casting a vote off of a full list that is sure to include werewolves than a random short list which is probable not to have a werewolf.

Your point about not reaching a consensus is understood, but I don't think we need a short list to do so. For the moment, I'd rather keep the field open.

the phantom

06-03-2005, 12:57 PM

(just noticed Fordy's post above my last one)

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree), but as far as the idea for protecting the seer, I think it's a good one. I do see a way that an extremely risky and devious wolf could use it to his advantage, but it would have a fairly good chance of backfiring on him, so I doubt he'd try it.

Count me in as far as the seer protection goes. Every day I will tell about my "dream" and name a person as innocent or guilty.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-03-2005, 01:01 PM

To clarify: the Seer has not yet dreamed of anybody.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-03-2005, 01:01 PM

The point of my strategy Firefoot is, as you rightly note, not to narrow the odds but to force the Wolves' hands...paws. If we generate a random list of three nominees that is the only way to guarantee that the Wolves have no way of influencing that list. If we try to bash out a list of three names ourselves, we can never be sure that the wolves aren't influencing that selection...in fact, we can be sure that they are influencing the selection. They have the advantage of knowledge, randomizing this first round is the only way to reduce that advantage.

At the very least, I would hope that we could move toward a short list of some kind, and that we could spread the votes around to make sure that each one stands out. I also think that we need to make people accountable for their vote (by having those who vote for an innocent be on the next short list) and to force everyone to vote (by having anyone who does not vote put on the short list).

The point is, we need to flush out the wolves from hiding within our numbers!

The Only Real Estel

06-03-2005, 01:04 PM

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

edit: although we are not supposed to be referring to this as a 'game,' I do need to say just one thing: make sure that in our thinking up ways to make it easier for the us we don't make the village more of a bunch of mathematical processes than the game that it in fact is. :)

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-03-2005, 01:09 PM

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree)

I makes me antsy too since it puts some peril into our vote -- but that's the point, for it will imperil the Wolves too! The only way the Wolves can exploit it is NOT to vote for the person who is going to be killed if that person is an innocent. But if the vote is close, the wolves will not have a clear idea of who is to die until close to the end of voting -- you see where this is headed...it puts pressure on the wolves: vote early and risk being caught on a short list, or wait until the end and risk being spotted as someone who is afraid to vote...

It's not mathematically perfect or guaranteed, there's no way to develop any system that will do that, but it does mean that the wolves will have to react to what we are doing rather than simply the other way around.

I'm happy that the seer protection plan is getting some good response -- but it will only really work if the seer agrees to do it, which we won't know if he or she has done for a while!!

the guy who be short

06-03-2005, 01:24 PM

Danger! Accusations! Fingers pointing left and right!
Squabble if you must, but resolve yourselves by night.

Fordim: The Seer's job is to guide us, as unsuspiciously as possible, in the game. I think having everybody pretend to be a Seer would simply undermine this. Also, as Firefoot says, your ideas are mathematically unsound; for example, If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will It is clear you meant 1 in 5, but 3 in 14 is a better chance than 1 in 5, not worse, albeit slightly.
I am opposed to the ideas because having a short list does not seem feasable to me. All three wolves could easily stay off the shortlist by voting for an innocent villager who doesn't end up getting lynched, etc. By keeping everybody votable, we know that we can end up voting for a wolf, even if they influence our decisions.

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. Verily, I enjoy jokes as much as the next man, but this seems incredibly out of place when one fifteenth of the hamlet has just been viciously slaughtered. He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation.

Mormegil and Saucy both voiced suspicion of Kuru on the basis that he is a newcomer. I am not aiming suspicion at them here, but would like to take this moment to condemn both Xenophobia and Dwarrowphobia which appear to be rampant amongst our populance. :rolleyes:

Sono said The Guy Who Be Short, too, seemed jealous of Mr. Eomer's learning, always trying to show him up at town book readings and the like.
What do you mean trying to show him up? I did show him up, poor soul.
Our Holy Father Mormegil will confirm that I did come to him to ask for guidance over my feelings of jealousy, both of Eomer and of Azaelia whose vegetables seem to be much more popular than mine. With his help, and the help of Eru Iluvatar, I was able to overcome these emotions many months ago.

Finally: Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark".
I'm generally called TGWBS. :)

The Only Real Estel

06-03-2005, 01:42 PM

He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation

I think that this can surely be written off as jest-Kuru and Phantom have hardly been trustworthy figures in two past occasions (that I can’t name more fully because past villages aren’t supposed to be referenced ;)). A hard look at the beginning can really be no more than jest in my opinion.

Mormegil and Saucy both voiced suspicion of Kuru on the basis that he is a newcomer

I am not about to vouch for either Morm’s or Saucey’s innocence, but I will say that if you’re going to be suspicious because of accusations you have to be cautious. Someone has to cast the first stone, and history has generally been against those that do, and often unjustly.

I myself am one to wait until more evidence is heard, but what concrete evidence can we have until more unfolds? I would not wish for any further deaths solely for the purposes of having more evidence, but neither do I wish to cast hasty suspicions and votes and lynch an innocent! What to do?

edit: I am now split on the seer idea. I do see how it would help the villagers (that seems pretty obvious), but I also see 'short guy's' point about how it could potentially undermine some of the basic guesswork and sleuthing that are involved in the four-letter-word-that-starts-with-'g.'

Holbytlass

06-03-2005, 01:51 PM

I kinda like the protecting of the seer idea. I'm not going to comment about the voting idea because, right now, I'm confused. And so sad for that rascal, Eomer.

Kuruharan

06-03-2005, 01:56 PM

It seems to me that Fordim has provided a sounding board to gauge people's reactions (and perhaps gauge his own motives in offering it). However, the difficulty is knowing what to make of the observations...

mormegil

06-03-2005, 02:19 PM

Given our current situation, I would say that mentioning anyone's name is tantamount to an accusation (although staring intently is of course, nothing of the sort :p ). You asked me to explain myself and I did. I would have thought, though, that my friendly nature was well known throughout the village.

Now, preacherman, it seems to me that those early nights provide plenty of scope for grisly night-time activities without leaving you tired. And perhaps its no coincidence that the victim was a free thinker, one whose philosophising might challenge the strict teachings of the church. I see that his books were left in a state such that his thoughts may no longer be shared ...

So if I understand correctly it is acceptable to accuse one if is implied by what is said just so long as we don't name any names? I merely state my suspicions (taking a big risk I might add) and that is equivalent to accusing but somehow there is a difference when you accuse but don't say my name?

Now as far as it goes with Eomer's free thinking, I readily admit that we didn't see eye to eye on many issues, however He and I had many a lively debate and chat that we each enjoyed to share ideas and express differences. Sadly those will no longer be held due to his demise by those fiendish wolves.

Evisse the Blue

06-03-2005, 03:11 PM

Rest in peace, brave handsome Eomer! No more shall he taste of my fish.

Well, Mr Loremaster, speaking for myself as a simple wench, you've gotten us to a heck of a start here proposing a fine strategy and all, but one in which we trust to luck more than I am happy to. However I can see how, at this point, all of us are pretty much 'dancing in the dark', so to speak, so your idea of making this an organized waltz may not be so bad. The idea seems good and you put it very nice and proper, Mr Fordim. However, and you'll forgive me for being so discourteous, but I can't believe that a man of lore such as yourself overlooked Firefoot's objection, which I'd say it's pretty important: random selection does seem to favour the werewolves. In the event that we get really unlucky, we will slay quite a few innocents before a werewolf is even selected, and none of the other innocents can be blamed for voting for innocents, as long as they're the only ones on the list.
The seer idea is interesting, but blind luck could also be against us, even here, at least at the first stages.
However, because a decision must be reached, and being an optimist sort of person, I'll say we go with it and see where it leads us.

Shelob

06-03-2005, 03:34 PM

"Wilt thou, O God, fly from such gentle lambs,
And throw them in the entrails of the wolf?"
(Richard III. IV.iv)

What horror! O what plauge hath now befallen our poor Storyland. 'Tis sorrowful indead that no more should our worse fear be the forgetting of a line or plot.

As to what has here been said before mine entrance I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots. I do however feel the much debated "short-list voting" to be lacking somewhat in mathmatics. I agree that 'twould double the werewolves already doubled headaches but I do agree there are to many innocents per wolf for it to be of any major use. Perhaps 'twould be better not to limit the voting but to each morn list the records of all previous voting. 'Twould then accomplish the same thing in that it would give us a clear record of voting habits but 'twould also not limit those for whom we can vote and so does not risk the same statistical problems as the current plan.

the guy who be short

06-03-2005, 04:03 PM

Surely protecting the Seer only to neutralise his / her powers is paradoxical?

Firefoot

06-03-2005, 04:16 PM

Surely protecting the Seer only to neutralise his / her powers is paradoxical? I think the reasoning is that should the seer be killed we would know exactly who s/he dreamed about each night and whether they were innocent or guilty.

the phantom

06-03-2005, 04:20 PM

I wouldn't say it neutralizes the power of the seer. The purpose is not only to make it more difficult for the wolves to pick out the seer, but also to make the seer's death extremely valuable to the villagers. If the seer is killed during the night we simply look back at the first post the seer made each day and see who he has declared guilty (or innocent).

Sure, it will be difficult to follow the seer while he is alive, but it wasn't exactly easy before so we aren't being hurt very much by that.

Plus, the seer, if he wants to, will still have ways of outing himself.

the guy who be short

06-03-2005, 04:24 PM

I guess it would give a greater advantage after the Seer's death. However, before the death, it would mean that the ordinary villagers wouldn't receive any real help from the Seer who is meant to subtly help and convince them. If everybody pretends they are the Seer, this advice is drowned, so preserving the Seer serves no purpose.

So much deep thought...
In light of the recent tragedy, I'm offering free Eomer Memorial Carrots to all members of the hamlet.

the phantom

06-03-2005, 04:37 PM

If everybody pretends they are the Seer, this advice is drowned
It's not so much that everyone is going to be acting like the seer, but that everyone will be making a guilty or innocent declaration at the beginning of each day. After a villager makes his declaration, it is entirely up to him whether or not to follow it up the rest of the day with accusations.

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

But you are right that the plan works the best when the seer is killed. This makes it so that if the werewolves think they know who the seer is, they might gamble on keeping him alive so as not to kill themselves. But if the werewolves correctly identify the seer, it is completely possible that a couple of us villagers will as well and will then follow the seer even before his death.

Obviously it isn't flawless and with bad luck it could really hurt us, but hey- I can't see why we can't give it a shot.

mormegil

06-03-2005, 05:07 PM

I'm not sure that I like the protecting the seer idea. I think that it will in fact give the wolves more advantage. The more I meditate on this matter the more convinced I am that it is not the best course of action. If any innocent villager for example were to say I think Person X is the wolf, which if they are not the seer is a complete guess, and it turns out that Person X is also an innocent but wasn't lynched, could not the wolves then kill the initial innocent and fingers would be pointed at Person X the next day? I really don't think this is our best way. Also using the same example let’s assume that Person X is lynched will not suspicion be cast upon the person that in an effort to protect the seer guessed Person X. No this option gives too much advantage to the wolves and will just cause confusion and discord among us the true villagers.

Edit: Also I don't think the short list idea will work for the simple reason that the mod would need to generate that list, as fordim stated. I don't want to speak for him, however I do not think that the rules will change once it has started.

Kuruharan

06-03-2005, 06:37 PM

Hmm...much strategizing is afoot here. However, something eventually has to give...

It seems to me that as far as Fordim is concerned he is either offering his idea honestly thinking it will benefit the villagers or he is a werewolf trying to pull the pelt over our eyes.

If he's honest then we should perhaps look at people opposing him. If he's not we should look at people supporting him.

Of course, how do you tell which is which...that is the question.

Barkeep! Bring me another plate of ribs...that's cattle ribs mind you.

On second thought I think I'll have a nice salad...and keep the drinks coming.

Firefoot

06-03-2005, 06:50 PM

I'm not really sure about the seer-protection idea. It sounds good, but it seems to me that it could be a real tool for the werewolves; they would probably figure out who the seer is before any of the rest of us, possibly very quickly. You see, if everyone points someone out, the wolves will know immediately if they are telling the truth.

For example:

Let's say Person X. Say Person Y is an ordinary villager. Person Y says: "I dreamt Person X is innocent." Now, the werewolves would know that Person Y was not the seer, because this whole concept is based on the seer telling the truth. This also works in the reverse: Say Person Z, also an ordinary villager, says, "I dreamt Person Y is a wolf." Likewise, the wolves would know Person Z is not the seer, because they obviously know Person Y is not a wolf.

I think we can all agree that having the wolves knowing who the seer is is not in the best interest of the rest of us innocent villagers.

Besides the fact that the whole concept breeds confusion, as mormegil's post clearly illustrates (I think I understand it... ;) ).

And I still have reservations about the short list; actually, I think that in gauging people's reactions to the proposition that we will have a better chance of knocking out a wolf anyway.

mormegil

06-03-2005, 08:10 PM

I'm sorry if my explinations are even more bemuddled than usual. I am feeling rather ill today and it's difficult to think clearly. Basically what I was trying to say is this:

Person Y is innocent
Person X is innocent

In an attempt to protect the seer Y states that X is a wolf. Let's assume Person X wasn't lynched that day, the werewolves could use this to their advantage and kill Person Y which would cast suspicion on Person X.

Also if Person Y were to say that X is a wolf and he was lynched, of course the village would find him to be innocent than we are likely to want to lynch Person Y although he is innocent too.

Firefoot brought up a great point too. I think this has to many holes in it to provide effective cover. I think what Kuruharan said has some merit to it.

Kuruharan-- Hmm...much strategizing is afoot here. However, something eventually has to give...

It seems to me that as far as Fordim is concerned he is either offering his idea honestly thinking it will benefit the villagers or he is a werewolf trying to pull the pelt over our eyes.

If he's honest then we should perhaps look at people opposing him. If he's not we should look at people supporting him.

Of course, how do you tell which is which...that is the question.

Barkeep! Bring me another plate of ribs...that's cattle ribs mind you.

On second thought I think I'll have a nice salad...and keep the drinks coming.

First dwarves having salad? What an odd thing :D .

Secondly and more important I would like to know you're true feelings regarding this matter Kuru not just this safe guarded statement. You sound more like a elf than a dwarf never saying yea or nay ;)

Kuruharan

06-03-2005, 08:34 PM

Secondly and more important I would like to know you're true feelings regarding this matter Kuru not just this safe guarded statement. You sound more like a elf than a dwarf never saying yea or nay

Icky, yucky, pooo!!!!

Hmm...why are you so interested?

If you really want to know (and this statement has the nature of an OCC) I think the idea is flirting with the nether-regions of a rule change rather than just a tactical gambit.

The Only Real Estel

06-03-2005, 08:34 PM

I feel the need to analize at least a few villagers as I see that our time for decisions is approaching the half-way mark.

Fordim seems to be sitting in a nice spot. He has referred before to a sort of 'system' that he had figured out before--only he never got the chance to explain it. It could be that he is now implementing it to really help us, or it could be that, being a werewolf, he sees this as a convienent time to bring out his system. Surely no one that would go to such great lengths to help us could in fact be scheming behind the scenes, right? Um...right? One can't help but be a bit suspicious, but I'm not ready to lynch him on the what might turn out to be extremely faulty grounds (when has seeking to help those around us ever been grounds for lynching?).

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

What it comes down to is first roundishness, pure & simple. Very few facts, and so very few accusations. None of us want to make a snap accusation or vote, because we will be looked upon darkly if the lynchee (is that a word? now it is...) turns out to be innocent. But if no stones are cast, we cannot hope to stop the fiends. It is a pretty corner that we've been painted into. I personally have only one villager that I am keeping a close eye on, but I hardly have enough evidence to share him/her with the rest of you yet...

Son of Númenor

06-03-2005, 09:56 PM

The werewolves destroyed both the other villages; I say we might as well try Fordim's idea, logical or no. The only problem is that we may not be able to get the moderator to generate a random list before the day is through.

mormegil

06-03-2005, 11:08 PM

I would most definitely like to hear from Fordim about how he feels about his idea now that some thoughts have been presented. Perhaps he would have a revised plan or with the new ideas that have been shared he may change his mind completely on it.

the phantom

06-04-2005, 12:05 AM

Well, I believe it is time for me to say something. I held my tongue for a bit because I was interested in seeing who would support the plan and why (or who was against it and why).

I'm not sure if the plan was put forward to help the village, to help the wolves, or to see how people responded in order to expose wolves, but seeing as many have made known their thoughts on the plan, it's my turn to pick it apart.

It's time to talk percentages. Firefoot pretty much already made the point I'm about to make, only she wasn't as specific or long-winded as I am going to be.

Odds are that we will lynch an innocent today and that another innocent will be slain during the night, bringing the villager to werewolf ratio down to 9:3.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

Obviously it would be a better idea for everyone to dream of someone being innocent. That way, there would only be a 25% chance of being wrong and thus only a 25% chance of the wolves being able to rule them out as being the seer. But if everyone made an innocent declaration, it would make the seer stick out if he declared one of the wolves to be guilty. So it seems that most of our fake dreams should declare someone innocent, but in order to protect the seer, several of us need to have fake guilty dreams as well in case the seer correctly identifies the wolf. But is giving them a slight amount of cover worth it considering that the person with the fake guilty dream will probably be wrong and immediately ruled out as being the seer?

If you ask me, this plan is a terrible risk. The percentages say that the wolves would be given an awful lot of information in exchange for a bit of cover for the seer. This is not a wise trade off.

Let us say that six villagers make a declaration of innocence and two make a declaration of guilt and the seer also declares someone to be guilty. Odds are that the other two guilty votes would be wrong and that the wolves would cross them off as being the seer, and that one or two innocent votes would be for wolves and thus remove them from the seer candidate list. That would mean that out of nine people, the wolves would have trimmed the list down to five or six candidates. And then, there is a decent possibility that one of those five or six would get lynched that day (the wolves would obviously be trying for it) and then they would certainly kill another that night, narrowing the field to three or four. And the following day when the "dreams" are declared, it is quite possible that the wolves would be able to narrow it down to two, and possibly even one.

I believe that this seer protection plan would ensure that the seer would not make it out of night four alive, meaning that the village would only have the benefit of two seer dreams.

If I was a werewolf I would love this plan.

However, I'm not trying to accuse Fordim. It's possible he knew this and was just getting reactions, or perhaps he hadn't worked the plan out this far.

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 03:43 AM

Arise, brave villagers! Your words go to waste!
You have been distracted when you are in need of haste
Two thirds of the day is wasted in debate
Of a system hard to contemplate
Night and fear draw near at last
Our votes must very soon be cast.

I must applaud The Only Real Estel for trying to get us back on track (even if he did name me as a suspect :p). Instead of deciding who we should be suspecting, we are fiddling with new concepts of voting, just as I thought we would.
This raises some questions in my eyes.

Look at post 13 and above, and then 14 and below. Debate was just really getting started when suddenly, Fordim appeared with lots of controversial ideas that plunged us into chaos and stopped names being named.
Now here's a question for you. These ideas are changes to the structure of how we vote, to the structure of... the g**e. :p Obviously these should be put forward to the Hamlet Council [Werewolf Thread 1] rather than inserted into the middle of the debate here, so why were they placed here?

Secondly there is the nature of the ideas. As Mormegil, Firefoot , Phantom and I all pointed out, the idea is laced with flaws which could help the wolves. Are the ideas simply badly thought out?

Thirdly, there is the fiddling with numbers. Observe this quote:
If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will
At first glance, an innocent typo. 1 in 50, 1 in 5, easy mistake. However, look carefully. The 0 key is neither near the 5 that preceded it nor the space bar that followed it. How could such a typo possibly be made? Perhaps the number was increased to strike fear into the less mathematically sound, increasing the appeal of Fordim's ideas.
Finally, if we presume that 1 in 50 is, somehow, a typo for 1 in 5, the numbers are still wrong. As I have stated, 3 in 14 is a slightly better chance than 1 in 5. Furthermore, I would look at the use of the word less as another means to demoralise.

Having said all this, I would like to make a few points very clear. I myself am not convinced of Fordim's guilt (I would say I am about 33% sure), but I am even less sure about the rest of the villages' guilt. I mention Fordim simply because I feel names must start being named soon, or we will leave it too late.
Additionally, I believe balance here is key. Consider my arguments, yes. Please also consider everybody else's arguments and create your own ideas.
Also in the interest of balance, I look forward to getting a response from Fordim. I feel that I have missed something, and hope that his points can clear his name.

If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious.

Glancing at the ideas, I think they would help the wolves. However, I am now not so certain of the shortlisting idea. I will conduct some mind-wrenching mathematics later and display my findings later.
I am still adamantly against the Seer protection idea as the shortcomings have been very clearly demonstrated!

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 04:41 AM

Our village is surely one of abstract thinkers, because here they are, voting for/against an idea, instead of an individual. ;)

Despite the reasons which motivated it being put forward by its author at such a time, Fordim's strategy is a well thought and solid one. It has its flaws, but any course of actions has risks. It could be employed to serve good just as well as to serve evil, provided the minds at work are cunning and most importantly work together. And this is the main problem which casts doubt over it as being advantageous to us in this particular situation. If there is even only one villager who cannot be persuaded to accept this idea, this idea is useless and the wolves will have complete advantage over us. They are only 3, and can communicate in ways we cannot know, whereas we can only communicate here for them to see. We have the advantage of numbers, yes, but this also gives the disadvantage of having lots of disagreements.
This idea may well be just a ploy to get everyone to react, as it has been suggested before, so that all of us can have something to work on.
Bearing this in mind, and also bearing in mind the ambiguous and risky nature of the strategy, I find myself quite suspicious of the ones who voice neither agreement nor disagreement with Fordim's idea, but instead wait for the others' to become confused and entangled in mathematical probabilities.
Equally I am suspicious (although perhaps it may only be my fishmongerish simplistic nature) of people who are able to change sides in the time it takes me to wheel my barrow down an alley. Phantom, your ability to defend/disprove of Fordim's idea with equal implication dazzles me a bit. You noticed Firefoot's initial problem with it, but chose not to take it into account at the time; later on you agree and expand on it, motivating this course of action by you waiting to see how the rest of us would react to it. I might say, though, that your mathematical analysis would have been of better use to us earlier on, since many of us found this aspect regarding probabilities and such quite confusing.

Holbytlass

06-04-2005, 05:09 AM

I know I fall into Evisse's category of neither agreeing nor disagreeing, so I state my personal case here. She is correct in regards to me that I am waiting and I am seeing what everyone says. That's why I moved to Storyland, I know I'm not smart or a quick-witted, but I'm smart enough to surround myself with those who are. To hear what the great minds have to say, on all sides, then form an opinion myself. This makes me a simpleton, not a wolf.
For example, I did say that I thought the seer idea was a good one. Now that it has been stated of the huge advantage for the wolves I'm not so sure that we should do it. Now, no offense is meant for you, Mr. Fordim. The mere fact that you thought of and planned two daring ideas to protect all of us is mind boggling. I could never have done such a thing in a year and all we have is a day.
As the village cobbler, all I can put forth as fact is that nobody has ordered new shoes on account theirs have split suddenly.

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 05:33 AM

Numbers are allies to those that will use them
Though it not always easy to choose them
Should one use permutations, combinations, what should one do?
But I've got my head around it and report back to you.

Regarding the shortlisting suggestion. I need to know how many people would be on the shortlist roughly. Let us say a majority of 5 people voted for an innocent.

Now, of the 14 of us, 5 are chosen. There are 2002 different groups of 5 people that can be chosen from the group of 14. However, from the 11 villagers, there are only 465 ways in which 5 people can be chosen, so the overall chance of getting at least one wolf in the shortlist is 77%.
Compare this to the present system, where we have a 100% chance of beign able to vote for a wolf.

However, one person of the five is chosen to be killed. This is slightly more complex.
The probability that there are no wolves is 23%
The probability that there is one wolf in the 5 is 49%.
The probability that there are two wolves is 25%
The probability that all three wolves are in is 3%

Out of the five people, one is lynched at random.
If there are no wolves, there is a 0% chance of lynching one.
9.8% of the time, we will lynch the wolf when there is one.
10% of the time, we will lynch a wolf when there are two.
1.8% of the time, we will lynch a wolf when there are three.

Overall, we stand a 21.6% chance of getting a wolf in this way.

Normally, we vote for a random person out of 14. There is a 3 in 14, that is, 21.4% chance, of choosing a wolf.

Therefore, by implementing Fordim's rules, we are 0.2% more likely to lynch a wolf.

So there you go.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-04-2005, 06:33 AM

Thanks for validating my own work there TGWBS. Actually, the odds are precisely the same of catching a wolf overall whether by random lot or off a short list, that 0.2% advantage you've found in my system is the result of numbers being rounded off along the way as you calculated.

The advantage to the system I've proposed, to any system for that matter, is that there is a system into which we all, wolves and innocents, will 'fit' -- this seems to me a vast improvement over the current situation in which there are two systems that have us voting in ignorance and the wolves voting in knowledge.

The short list idea was meant to provide us with a way of making the votes meaningful and to avoid consensus; there is no magic solution in choosing a few people to vote for, only better (that is, more reliable) results for us to look at afterward. We need to make each vote count and we need to make everyone vote. Again, we can't let the wolves hide either by casting meaningless votes in a landslide or abstaining.

As to the seer protection idea -- you are right, Phantom, that the plan will in the long run make the seer more visible, but this will happen for wolves and innocents alike. And if the seer does make it to round three (at which point there will be at worst 3 wolves left and 5 innocents) then to kill the seer is to pinpoint him or her for us and give us the identies of 4 of the 8 people (and monsters) in the village: game over for the wolves!

As to my 1 in 50 numbers: there was no mistake in the math, not for this learned lore master, I merely misspoke. What I meant to say was that there is only a 1 in 50 chance of guaranteeing that we will catch a wolf in the first round by coming up with a short list. More boring math that I want to get away from: (3:14) x (2:13) x (1:12) = 6:2184 = 0.00274 (2.7%)

I agree that this is all highly theoretical at this point, however and we need to move toward casting some votes. I for one will hold on to my vote until closer to the deadline only so I can cast it in such a way as to spread the votes around. I'm not afraid of hiding my vote! There is no time anymore for a random selection of nominees, and I admit it was a tricky proposition in the first place, so I will just have to see what happens in the next few hours.

(I will admit here, however, that my suspicions are aroused by those who argue most voluably against our developing a common strategy, as it seems to me -- obviously -- that the wolves are the ones with something to fear from this. I am also going to keep my eye on those who have said much, but committed or ventured little to the discussion.)

As to the seer protection idea, I will leave that for the next round (presuming I surive the lynching and the night!) as we have more important wolves to skin at the moment.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 06:56 AM

I would first make clear at the outset that circumstances have meant that I could not until now be present during this lively debate (beer doesn’t make itself you know ;) ).

One point to clear up:

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. As anyone who knows me could tell you, I take comfort in humour (and beer) in the face of distressing circumstances. And I will readily admit that the names that I have mentioned were put forward on the basis of no evidence. If anything, I was merely seeking to evince a reaction.

But the initial posts posts were really nothing but opening gambits and it is, I think, difficult to draw any conclusions from them whatsoever.

It is with Fordim’s bold idea and, in particular, the reactions to it, that the discussion has become really interesting.

I will first state my thoughts on Fordim’s proposed strategy. I will not go on at great length, for various the pros and cons have been stated already. For reasons that others have already stated, I see the “shortlist” idea as a very good mechanism for hanging a lot of innocent Villagers early on (the odds are more in favour of Villagers, rather than Werewolves, appearing on the random ‘shortlist’, at least at the outset). But, more importantly, I see the “Seer dream” idea as a perfect device for enabling the Werewolves to identify the Seer, or at least dramatically narrow down the list, very early on (see, in particular, the phantom’s last post on this.) Even if, having identified the Seer through this method, the Werewolves did not act upon it and kill the Seer immediately, it would enable them more effectively to neutralise his or her influence during the daytime discussions.

So, having considered it carefully, I am against both aspects of Fordim’s plan. It is, in principle, a good idea to carefully examine who people accuse, defend and vote for, but I would prefer not to do this in the structured manner which, to me, seems to favour the Werewolves more. However, I do welcome his having put his ideas forward for what they tell us about him and about those who have reacted to it.

First, what were Fordim’s motives in putting it forward? There are a number of possibilities:

1) Fordim is innocent and genuinely thinks that his plan, if implemented, will help even the odds and protect the Seer.
2) Fordim sees the shortcomings in his plan but, being a Werewolf, sees it as a way of helping his “side” (in particular by providing valuable information on the Seer’s identity).
3) Fordim sees the shortcomings in his plan but, being innocent, recognises that people’s reactions to it might be telling.
4) Fordim, being a Werewolf, wants to generate confusion and steer any accusations away from him.

Now, as an intelligent master of lore, I cannot believe that Fordim did not see the shortcomings in his plan, particularly as regards the Seer. So I am going to disregard 1). Of the remaining motives, the majority (two out of three) favour him being a Werewolf. But I remain undecided on this one, since it has been proved a jolly good way of getting people to react and, possibly, to provoke the Werewolves into making unguarded comments. However, I remain suspicious.

Which brings us to people’s reactions to the plan:

Firefoot spotted a flaw in the mathematics straight away and then posted convingly against the “Seer plan”.

The phantom was initially very mush in favour of the “Seer protection plan” (supporting it in three posts), but then, after its flaws had already been noted, posted convincingly and at length against it.

The Only Real Estel was against the shortlist from the start, but saw merit in the “Seer plan”.

TGWBS was immediately, and vocally, against the “Seer plan” and has been ever since, although he seems to support the "shortlist" idea on the mathematics.

Holbytlass liked the “Seer idea” but was undecided on the “shortlist”.

Kuru ventured no solid opinion on the plan but recognised its worth in gauging people’s reactions to it.

Evisse recognised the shortcomings of both plans, but thought we should go with it in the absence of anything better.

Shelob was in favour of the “Seer plan” but against the “shortlist”, on the basis of the mathematics.

Mormegil immediately spotted the key flaw in the “Seer plan” and has been against it.

SoN posted shortly simply to support Fordim’s idea with little explanation.

Based solely upon this (which is all we really have to go on at the moment), my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN. They seem to be the most in favour of Fordim’s plans. Since they were in favour of the “Seer plan” (which seems to particularly favour the Werewolves), I am also suspicious of The Only Real Estel and Shelob. I am least suspicious (currently) of Firefoot, TGWBS and mormegil (despite my initial, playful, posts), since they have been against the proposals. One might put the phantom in the same category, but he initially supported the “Seer plan” and then turned against it when others had spotted its flaws. Good cover, perhaps, for someone who is intelligent enough to have spotted its flaws from the outset.

Kuru, as always, ventures no solid opinions. Which makes me suspicious of him too. And that is most certainly not a xenophobic reaction. :p ;)

I have residual suspicions of those who have not yet commented on the plan, namely Azaelia and Oddwen. But they, like me, may simply not have had a chance to get here yet.

So those are my suspicions, but I shall reserve final judgement for a short while yet.

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 07:03 AM

I would like to reinforce Fordim's point: after further calculations, it is true, the percentage remains the same.

So the question is will this benefit us as Fordim said.

At the moment, I am not sure, one way or the other. On the one hand, Fordim has compelling arguments, on the other, the wolves could hijack the system.

I'm undecided. I am still against the new Seer ideas, but my suspicion about Fordim's maths proved false. I am almost convinced.

One final thing, Fordim. Why did you decide to post here instead of in the Town Hall [Werewolf 1] where all questions concerning our democracy [game structure] should go? Or are you suggesting that we should simply use this system unofficially?

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 07:10 AM

Kuru, as always, ventures no solid opinions. Which makes me suspicious of him too. And that is most certainly not a xenophobic reaction.

Dwarrowphobia is in many ways worse than Xenophobia. :p

I will have to think about Fordim's shortlist strategy, I am currently neutral, Saucy, not pro. But one thing I will say in its defence:

I see the “shortlist” idea as a very good mechanism for hanging a lot of innocent Villagers early on (the odds are more in favour of Villagers, rather than Werewolves, appearing on the random ‘shortlist’, at least at the outset)

Unstructured voting would have exactly the same odds. Neither system will help us mathematically.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 07:15 AM

The problem with your proposal, Fordim, is that there is a good chance that there will be no Werewolf in the radnomly chosen "shortlist". And, if that happens, an innocent Villager will automatically be lynched on DAY 1, an innocent Villager will automatically be killed in the night, and the results of the DAY 1 voting will tell us nothing and, statistically, be likely to result in the death of yet another innocent Villager.

While, as the numbers of innocent Villagers come down, it may help us out, it seems very much to favour the Werewolves in the opening few days. Thereafter, the effects of the opening few days will begin to favour the Werewolves in terms of numbers. The Werewolves need to get the Villagers' numbers down quickly and early on, without losing one of their own, and this seems to provide them with a good way of doing so. Personally, I would prefer to rely on "gut" instinct and a careful analysis of what people say than randomly choosing names out of a hat.

As for the "Seer protection plan", this may provide us with valuable information as the game wears on, but it will provide the Werewolves with essential information very early on. They will be able to narrow down their list of possible Seers on DAY 2 and, as the phantom said, will be pretty much sure who the Seer is by DAY 4 at the latest. Now, they would be silly to kill the Seer in those circumstances, given that we will all have the same information. But, as I said, they would be more able to neutralise his or her effect. Combined with a dwindling number of innocent Villagers (courtesy of your "shortlist"), this would give them a very distinct advantage.

Finally, I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened.

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 07:23 AM

Saucy, I was in favour of a plan, as opposed to no plan. Chaotic behaviour tends to not work so well in our favour as it has been seen before. I am not sure, however that I undestand your reasoning when you automatically suspect everyone in favour of this plan of being a werewolf. Just a few hours ago, it used to be the other way around: those who opposed the plan were being suspected. Now, I confessed my ignorance when it comes to the obscure (;)) science of mathematics, and therefore I had only a vague idea of the shortcomings of Fordim's theory, until more gifted villagers like the phantom and TGWBS explained them in detail. This is why I reprimanded the former for not speaking out earlier, it would have saved me a great deal of headache trying to work out the probabilities. :p

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 07:30 AM

I have balanced the suggestions in my mind. Here is what I have come up with:

Pros:
we can't let the wolves hide either by casting meaningless votes in a landslide or abstaining

Cons:
The werewolves could vote in a landslide anyway. A landslide is still possible with a shortlist.
As Saucy said, there could very easily be no wolves in the shortlist - a chance of almost a quarter. This balances because overall the chances are the same.
The Werewolves could avoid the Shortlist by using how it works against the Villagers. They could, for example, vote against one another or for other innocent villagers (not in the landslide) to stay off the shortlist.

I would like Fordim to address all these issues, please, as well as the timing and place of his posting which I inquired about in an earlier post.

Kuruharan

06-04-2005, 08:10 AM

Kuru ventured no solid opinion on the plan

-and-

Kuru, as always, ventures no solid opinions.

Heh! I have a future in diplomacy!

However, you've been inattentive. If you read my last post you will see I did give a solid opinion on the plan (although perhaps not the solid opinion you were looking for).

I'm worried that due to the nature of the first DAY's discussions we are not going to learn much from the hanging unless we do somehow manage to pick a werewolf, and I believe we will probably be completely in the dark about the next NIGHT's killing considering how wobbly most people have been.

Right at the moment suspicion seems to be centering on Fordim (as much as it is centering at all). However, even so I'm not sure I'd favor hanging him today even if he is a werewolf (which of course we don't know). Maybe we should leave him alive and see what happens at NIGHT.

Of course, where does this leave us...

mormegil

06-04-2005, 08:13 AM

I would like to voice my current great suspicions. They are the phantom and Son of Numenor

If I may quote the phantom

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

This is from his post not supporting the seer protection idea yet his first post was in support.

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree), but as far as the idea for protecting the seer, I think it's a good one. I do see a way that an extremely risky and devious wolf could use it to his advantage, but it would have a fairly good chance of backfiring on him, so I doubt he'd try it.

Count me in as far as the seer protection goes. Every day I will tell about my "dream" and name a person as innocent or guilty.

So phantom how is it that you are able to contemptously ask us if nobody else noticed the flaws in the system when they had already been pointed out (albeit with less verbosity) and also when initially you supported the idea while thiiking the shortlist was the bad one?

And I suspect SoN based on his simple acceptance of the plan with no explination merely stating that let's do whether or not it's logical.

Firefoot

06-04-2005, 08:21 AM

Or not too much, but some interesting discussion at any rate.

As to the seer protection idea -- you are right, Phantom, that the plan will in the long run make the seer more visible, but this will happen for wolves and innocents alike. And if the seer does make it to round three (at which point there will be at worst 3 wolves left and 5 innocents) then to kill the seer is to pinpoint him or her for us and give us the identies of 4 of the 8 people (and monsters) in the village: game over for the wolves! This excludes the possibility that the villagers accidentally lynch the seer, or that the wolves get lucky and kill the seer right off.Finally, I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened. Ditto that. The plan is extremely risky and tends to favor the werewolves, especially with Fordim's original shortlist plan of only 3 (not five, as TGWBS calculated). The whole purpose of it was to get some rhyme and reason to the voting and not have it completely random. However, gauging people's reactions, the vote will no longer be completely random.

My suspicions at the moment are similar to SpM's. I am, however, more suspicious about phantom's confusing behaviour. He seemed pretty adamant about supporting it, and then switched colors without warning. He did not even show any sign of convincing, as TGWBS is doing now.

And now we have less than three hours to vote. The field is still wide open and I could see it going in several different directions. Time will tell...

The Only Real Estel

06-04-2005, 08:28 AM

To clarify my position on the seer protection idea:
I was in favor of it because it occurred to me that, if the werewolves killed the seer upon quickly distinguishing him/her from the lot of us (which is unfortunately very likely to happen), we need only find the villager that the seer told us was innocent. I then reasoned with myself that we could easily conquer these beasts because we would know who not to lynch. Unfortuantely, during the night I realized my blind stupidity--it's not enough for us not to lynch the villager we know to be innocent (thanks to the seer), the werewolves would simply kill him or her during the night, sending us back to square one. Although my thoughts remain a bit confused on both matters, I can see no real advantage until late in the game, and if the werewolves quickly discover the seer and kill him/her before he/she has much of a chance to provide us with information, we will have gained nothing discernable by our new method.

Therefore, since I realized that pretty much the only reason I was supporting the seer idea was a hopelessly faulty one, I am not leaning against both of Fordim's suggestions. Unless someone can give enough evidence that either of the plans would outweigh the cons that they bring with them, I don't see why we should take the risk.

In the mean time, although I will not say that this is something that Fordim has planned, we have only about two and a half hours remaining to lynch someone and no idea who to lynch! No doubt these suggestions of Fordims have served the wolves purposes in at least one way, we have been completely distracted and most likely will end up voting in a flurry at the last second and lynching an innocent villager one next to no evidence. I suggest we concentrate on discerning the wolves among us and decide on Fordim's propositions during the next day (if the majority has not already spoken).

Kuruharan

06-04-2005, 08:47 AM

I suggest we concentrate on discerning the wolves among us

*Noises of agreement*

We don't really have time to do otherwise anymore.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-04-2005, 08:54 AM

RL demands that I will be away from my computer for the next few hours, and as time is up in just 2 hours I find that I must cast the first stone...

That having been said, this first round really is all about luck and conjecture, so no matter who I vote for there is only a 3 in 14 chance of getting it right...

That having been said, I am going to cast my vote against

++SaucepanMan

insofar as he is the one person here who has done the two things which I have already stated to be the most suspicious things that could be done: 1) argue against my proposals; and 2) posted quite voluably but said nothing of real substance and committed to no particular or specific course of action.

In Saucy's last post he does two things; he attempts to undermine any attempt at developing a system to flush out werewolves and he casts suspicion over groups of people, setting them against each other -- just as though he were a wolf trying to separate the flock into smaller groups for easier managing...

So anyway, that's my vote. There is only a 22% chance that I am right. I predict, however, that there is a 100% chance of me garnering votes for having voted first -- and I will further predict that at least a few of those votes will be cast by werewolves...

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 09:05 AM

I am, however, more suspicious about phantom's confusing behaviour. He seemed pretty adamant about supporting it, and then switched colors without warning. He did not even show any sign of convincing, as TGWBS is doing now.

I was against the proposals from the start. Fordim's arguments swayed me to neutrality for a second, but now, I find I must find his ideas faulty and vote for ++Fordim.

Several times I asked him to explain his motives, and I have been ignored. Perhaps there is an innocent explanation for this, but it is the only kind of "evidence" available to me.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 09:06 AM

Saucy, I was in favour of a plan, as opposed to no plan.I too am in favour of a plan, but not one which seems to greatly favour the Werewolves. Fordim's "Seer dream" idea just looks to me like something specifically designed to identify the Seer for the Werewolves' benefit. My plan is to look carefully what everyone says in reaction to what has been said before, and look at who they accused and how they voted (if I get the chance). Admittedly, that's pretty much how things have gone peviously and it could well end up in chaos and confusion. But I'd rather take my chances with that than provide a structured way of doing it which can surely only benefit the Werewolves, given their greater pre-existing knowledge.

I am not sure, however that I undestand your reasoning when you automatically suspect everyone in favour of this plan of being a werewolf.I readily acknowledge that it's not perfect. It is quite possible that some people's initial reactions were based on a misunderstanding of its true effect. I myself was initially persuaded by Fordim's reasoning, until I thought further about it and heard some of the others' reactions.

But, thanks to Fordim having raised this "red herring", it's really all that we have to go on at the moment.

And, with the exception of The Only Real Estel, I have not seen anyone who was initially in favour of the "Seer plan" come out against it, despite the convincing arguments against it. Actually, I suppose Holbytlass changed her mind over it. But perhaps we should be more suspicious of those who have changed their mind as they have been able to see which way opinion was going ... :confused:

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty.

However, there remains a possibility that Fordim's intentions were good. My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN (who continue to support Fordim's plans despite their now obvious defects) and, if they turn out to be Werewolves, direct our gaze towards Fordim.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 09:14 AM

Hmm.now I have had the benefit of seeing Fordim's vote ...

... insofar as he is the one person here who has done the two things which I have already stated to be the most suspicious things that could be done: 1) argue against my proposals; and 2) posted quite voluably but said nothing of real substance and committed to no particular or specific course of action.

1) I have explained why I believe them to be defective (as have many others);
2) Untrue. My proposed course of action was to look at people's reactions to your proposals and, in particular, those who sought to support them.

Now I am in a quandry. Do I vote for Fordim who I suspect the most, despite that this might appear simply to be a knee-jerk reaction to him voting for me? Or do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?

I have time. I will wait for further reactions ...

Kuruharan

06-04-2005, 09:15 AM

Hmm, now we have an interesting situation.

Fordim accuses Saucepan Man.

TGWBS accuses Fordim.

Saucepan Man ignores the both of them and points at two totally different people.

I'm inclined to agree with Saucepan Man, Evisse makes me nervous.

We have to ask ourselves, which death will provide the most information. I'm suspicious of both Fordim and Saucepan Man (although at the moment I don't think both of them are werewolves).

Initially I'd have said kill Fordim. If he's a werewolf well and good we can kill those who supported him. If Fordim is not a werewolf we'll pacify his spirit by tossing Saucepan Man into that nearby volcano (points to nearby volcano that nobody noticed before).

However, perhaps Saucepan Man has created a reasonable compromise. Kill one of the people who supported The Plan as a test of Fordim's loyalty (and Evisse makes me nervous...)

Firefoot

06-04-2005, 09:15 AM

I was against the proposals from the start. Fordim's arguments swayed me to neutrality for a second, I know, sorry if I was unclear. Using you as an example would have been for the opposite; my point was that you were against it, and then you commented that you would consider Fordim's plan given proper reasoning, you didn't just suddenly say you were on his side, which is what phantom did, just going in the other direction.

mormegil

06-04-2005, 09:29 AM

As for myself I am not going to vote for Fordim today. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is innocent and started this discussion simply to give us opportunity to weigh people's reactions.

Based on that as I previously stated the one I can find the most "evidence" on, based on his reaction, is the phantom. He is far too clever to not catch the flaws in Fordim's system initially. He initially agrees with it in a very short post (uncharacteristic) and then in a rather long post explains why he is against it after the majority of people posting on the idea are opposed to it. It seems that he's quickly trying to side with the majority and actually appear to be championing the cause. A good way to try and cover guilt I say.

It's always risky to cast a stone in this round, but it must be done. If we vote for an innocent, and they are lynched, suspicion will be cast on those that vote for him/her.

I therefore will be voting for ++THE PHANTOM and ask that others look at the limited shreds of evidence that we have and vote how they best determine. I think we need to watch SoN and Fordim a bit, however I don't believe they have the strongest evidence against them, albeit weak evidence against the phantom.

Holbytlass

06-04-2005, 09:36 AM

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.
My approach has been this, there are two who have said nothing Oddwen and Azaleia. And so, by the peril of numbers again, 3 out of 5 flips of a coin.....

++azaleia
I'm sure I'll be on someone's short list. :(

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 09:36 AM

I ask of you, lest chaos ensues again, to not confuse simplicity, ignorance even, with guilt. I fear now indeed that this has been a cleverly orchestrated scheme from start to finish; but hopefully it is not too late to make a right decision for our village.

Why exactly do I make you nervous, Kuruharan? Is it the smell of fish? Is it my uncommonly blue eyes? :p To tell the truth, you're the one making me nervous. So far, you've assumed the role of 'spectator', analyzing the situation seemingly in an objective manner, and taking no sides whatsoever, expecting, no doubt, to see which side would come out more favourably. I have said before this behaviour looks most suspicious to me.
As for my wrongdoings, if I regret anything in my past actions, is my hastiness in posting without analizing the matter thoroughly. Fordim's proposal seemed good for the villagers at the time. Even after the flaws were pointed out, changing sides would have looked - and it still looks to me too much like duplicitary behaviour. In my last post, I did not argue in favour of the theory and in my second post, I granted the theory the benefit of the doubt because it was indeed a well thought one, given that even a cunning one like the phantom had been swayed into accepting it on the spot, ignoring the obvious shortcomings that even I had foreseen at the time. Which by the way makes him suspect number 1 on my list, closely followed by Kuru.
Don't misunderstand me, for the one who sits on number 3 on my list of suspects is Fordim, since his refusal to further defend his theory and hasty vote against SPM, whose accusations I strongly deny, but do not wish for the time being to return his gesture and suspect him of being a werewolf. Closely folowed by SoN, though we have not much against him except his silence following his agreement of Fordim's theory.

EDIT: Crossposted with the ones above me - So far it seems the votes are as scattered as anyone would want them...But before I vote myself, I would like to hear some explanations from the ones who were accused, particularly the phantom and SoN

Oddwen

06-04-2005, 09:41 AM

Sorry I haven't made an appearance yet, my work has kept me from the village councils...

Egads, what a way to go, Eomer. :confused:

Reading up on what everyone has said so far, it seems that the Seer Dream Theory seems to be dangerously flawed...more so than the Short List, which just confuses me.

I have to vote now, as RL will keep me away 'til perhaps Monday. Dang, I hate being rushed. :(

I feel as if I should go with my gut instinct, which was right in the past though I ignored it, and vote for ++THE PHANTOM , though The Guy and Fordim also unsettle me.

Also - Where is Zali?

Son of Númenor

06-04-2005, 09:46 AM

You could lynch me, true enough, but you'd not only be losing an innocent villager -- you'd be losing the man who fixes yer houses!

I'm not a man of numbers; I supported Mr. Hedgethistle's idea only because it seems clear based on the tales of recent villages that another system needs to be worked out for finding 'wolves. At the very least, a new system could throw their lot off balance, mathematistry and such aside.

My grandpappy always said, "He's a fool as tries to find a werewolf among villagers on the first day of voting," or something of that nature. We've naught to go on but the most meager suspicions. While at the moment I find myself suspicious of The Saucepan Man more than any other villager, I don't want to be too hasty, as lynching him prematurely'd rid us of a man with great powers of deduction, who could be of considerable use down the road if he's innocent; and then there's his fine brew to consider.

I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right.

Kuruharan

06-04-2005, 09:48 AM

lest chaos ensues again

You're too late. All these people with their delightfully non-retractable votes are refusing to vote for the same people.

Is it my uncommonly blue eyes?

My eyes are blue too, I'll have you know. Well, actually, they are more of a blue-grey.

Anyway...

For reasons that I can't explain (hint-hint) the phantom and myself are actually the least likely to be werewolves. Not that it isn't possible, but just a glance at the odds should tell you to look elsewhere first. At this moment we do have a few DAYS to spare.

And now we come back to Evisse who initially supported The Plan and now does some hasty reversal.

ignoring the obvious shortcomings that even I had foreseen at the time.

Hmmm...

And notice this also...

for the one who sits on number 3 on my list of suspects is Fordim

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

Then, of course, there are the ridiculous charges she's tossing at me! :eek: I'll have you know I'm completely innocent!

mormegil

06-04-2005, 09:54 AM

For reasons that I can't explain (hint-hint) the phantom and myself are actually the least likely to be werewolves. Not that it isn't possible, but just a glance at the odds should tell you to look elsewhere first. At this moment we do have a few DAYS to spare.

No, there is an equal probability that anyone can be a werewolf. Just as there is an equal probability that anyone could be the seer.

Kuruharan

06-04-2005, 09:59 AM

No, there is an equal probability that anyone can be a werewolf.

In this village. Sequentially...err, not so much.

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 10:01 AM

I ask people who have not yet voted to reconsider Fordim, who seems for some reason to have been sidelined.

One final thing, Fordim. Why did you decide to post here instead of in the Town Hall [Werewolf 1] where all questions concerning our democracy [game structure] should go? Or are you suggesting that we should simply use this system unofficially?
2:03pm

I would like Fordim to address all these issues, please, as well as the timing and place of his posting which I inquired about in an earlier post
2:30pm

Two very clear challenges to Fordim's ideas. Then Fordim appears at 3:54pm, just one and a half hours, or six posts, after me. The challenges are completely ignored, an accusation is made, and he disappears.
Why would he ignore two very clear, and to me, very important, challenges?

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 10:02 AM

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.
My action has been satisfactorily explained by his refusal to back his theory, which I think everyone was expecting at the time. Instead, neither taking it back, nor exposing it for the werewolf-magnet which it was later assumed (mind you, not surely proven) to be - left after casting a vote at the one who used his theory to start making accusations (SPM). This looks suspicious, but less suspicious than your behaviour of not specifically reacting for or against something.
And yes, let's not forget the equal probabilities of anyone being anything in this game.

The Only Real Estel

06-04-2005, 10:03 AM

OPB SpM:
And, with the exception of The Only Real Estel, I have not seen anyone who was initially in favor of the "Seer plan" come out against it, despite the convincing arguments against it. Actually, I suppose Holbytlass changed her mind over it. But perhaps we should be more suspicious of those who have changed their mind as they have been able to see which way opinion was going ... :confused:

It did occur to me that it would probably seem suspicious for me to 'change' my opinion on the seer matter only after SpM implicated me as somewhat suspicious to him. Unfortunately, it couldn't be helped. After initial down-time in which I had the chance to voice my views several times, the day got busy fast--and I had no time to really dedicate myself to picking apart Fordim's proposed plan. It was only after some thinking in the quite confines of my bed that I realized how blatantly absurd my reasoning for the seer idea working was, and how easily the wolves could get past it. That left me with no reason to stick by the plan, other than other villagers seeing it as fickle, and that wasn't enough of a reason for me. The fact that SpM posted his suspicions of me inbetween posting times for me cannot be helped.

So far the voting has been sporadic, as expected. Fordim seems a logical choice, but if he would turn out to be innocent I would hate to have hung him because he tried to help us (since that's what it would boil down to). If I was convinced of Fordy's plan I should be suspicious of Saucey, TGWBS, and the phantom. Unfortunately, I am not sure of his plan, so I'm not sure whether to be suspicious of any of them. And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day. I'm not vouching for him (as I have repeated several times during this DAY about different characters), but I am putting something out there that I have been thinking on for quite awhile. As to SoN's vote of me, I can't speak to that because he gave no reasons besides his gut feelings (pretty much), and I'm not going to try to argue anyone out of their gut feeling.

As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 10:03 AM

And now we come back to Evisse who initially supported The Plan and now does some hasty reversal.Yes, I noticed that too, although it was hedged in such a way as to not look like too much of a reversal.

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.Again, the same point occurred to me. It seems a good Werewolf plan to look like you are suspicious of the other Werewolves, without actually promoting them as prime suspects.

I think that I shall stick with my plan of concentrating on those who supported Fordim's proposals. So, Evisse or SoN? Well, if the ploy was pre-planned, I would expect the "supporting" Werewolves to be forthright in their support for the proposals, while suitably hedging their comments with caveats which they could later use to distance themselves from the proposals. Which is precisely what Evisse did (and SoN did not) do.

In fact Evisse seems to be doing a lot of hedging ...

I still have time, but I have pretty much narrowed my vote down to her.

Shelob

06-04-2005, 10:10 AM

"Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!"
~ Sir Walter Scott

I don't really know for whom I ought to vote...as I have had little chance recently to read views and opinions carfully, and as I have little time now to read them...I feel that I must vote on less evidence and thought than most of you have given this.

From what I have quickly read though I find pros and cons with every suggestion. Every time I find myself agreeing with one view I immediatly see the problems with it...this being as it is, though not wishing to add another name to our already myriad list, I feel I ought to follow The Saucepan Man's reasoning behind voting for Evisse or SoN and therefore vote for ++EVISSE.

To explain this.

1) I worked mostly from the Sucepan Man's list of how everyone had felt about the plans (keep in mind I'm short on time. This doesn't mean I'm looking only at The Saucepan Man's arguments and ignoring all others, it just means that I could read his post (#48 according to the number in the corner) and get a summary of almost everything I had missed).
2) Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them. To me this suggests that Evisse was trying to avoid suspicion by agreeing, but still hoping to get the plans impemented so as to help herself (and her lycanthropic kin).
3) I do realize that Evisse has since stated that she was in support of a plan and not necessarily these plans...
4) The only other person who, in my mind, is suspicous enough to deserve being the one lynched is Fordim, I do not vote for him however because I feel that even the thickest of werewolves would have realized that suggesting these plans would bring them high on the list of "whom to hang" and I doubt Fordim would have gone through with it given that....also, though it's unlikely, if Fordim had some reasoning behind what has been speculated or given for suggesting these plans I would rather not see him lynched...

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 10:12 AM

And yes, let's not forget the equal probabilities of anyone being anything in this game.This is one point where I do agree with Evisse. Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.However, the phantom has remained suspiciously quiet recently ...

Firefoot

06-04-2005, 10:18 AM

Just for clarity, the votes so far are:

Saucepan Man - 1 (Fordim)
Fordim - 1 (TGWBS)
phantom - 2 (mormegil, Oddwen)
Azaelia - 1 (Holbytlass)
Only Real Estel - 1 (SoN)
Evisse - 1 (Shelob)

That leaves 10 votes possible left. It seems likely enough that there could be a tie, resulting in two lynchings.

Heading my suspicion list at the moment are Fordim, phantom, Evisse, and SoN, for reasons already stated either by myself or others. I'm still not sure who I will vote for, though I think I may be leaning towards Fordim, mostly for his elusions of TGWBS's direct questions. Evisse is my second choice at the moment, for the reasons SpM outlined three posts above.

mormegil

06-04-2005, 10:23 AM

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 10:23 AM

That leaves 10 votes possible left.Surely you mean 7? Ooer, perhaps I should not be trusting your instincts on mathematical matters ... :eek: :D

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 10:27 AM

What you so cleverly call hedging, Saucy, I call 'defending myself with the certainty of my innocence.' I am beginning to doubt you, although at the beginning I did not, just because you appear (intentionally?) blind to what I have been saying.
In the beginning, there was a plan and that plan was good. Then the plan was bad, and suddenly everyone in favour of it was on the suspect list. Weirdly enough how this resembles a political tactic (stress on 'tactic'). Changing sides in the middle of the debate, just as you get wind of the unpopularity of an idea looks very much like wolfish sneaky behaviour to me. And this is exactly what the phantom has done, without showing up then to see where the debate would lead...perhaps being certain that he had secured a good cover for himself.
Despite the 'hedging' you guys keep accusing me of, I have been, since I saw his post, constantly suspicious of the phantom.
And now, seeing as so very little time is left for us to come to a decision, I shall cast my vote for ++the phantom

PS: Shelob, you say:

Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them.

Without getting into the theory of relativity and probabilities, which I expect everyone had enough of today :p, any plan is flawed, no theory to be put in practice is perfect or risk free. And a seemingly perfect utopia is the most dangerous of all theories. In any case, the fact that I was willing to test Fordim's theory should speak for my optimism and open-mindness, not for my guilt.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 10:27 AM

Time moves on. I want my vote to count, and I am not so sure that I want to see the phantom hanged - not on the current state of the evidence anyway.

So I will cast my vote for:

++ EVISSE THE BLUE

I have explained my reasoning at length previously.

Kuruharan

06-04-2005, 10:34 AM

Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

You misunderstand. History means nothing. Odds should be considered.

Oh well. :rolleyes: Enough of that blather.

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 10:37 AM

I had not seen Evisse's vote before I cast mine. But it merely reinforces me in my view. Surely a Werewolf is more likely to vote for the one innocent who is attracting as many votes (or potential votes) as she is.

Of course, there is no certainty that the phantom is innocent. But, if we lynch Evisse and she is guilty, that would now speak in his favour.

Alas, there is similarly no certainty that Evisse is guilty. But she is the person that I suspect the most on the basis of the first day's proceedings. Hence my vote.

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 10:39 AM

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.
Too bad that it isn't. It isn't right and you are either intentionally (as is my strong doubt) or unintentionally making a big mistake.
Those who have not voted so far need to be very careful not to jump on the bandwagon started along by SPM. Most people seem to follow his course of action, pressed by the very little remaining time, which seems to cloud their judgement.

the phantom

06-04-2005, 10:40 AM

Morm- you ask why I was for the plan and then against it? Isn't it obvious? The seer plan seems carefully crafted to help the wolves and if I would've done my extremely strong anit-plan post immediately I doubt a single person would've had the guts to go along with it. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I believe that my words against the plan carry an awful lot of weight- enough to discourage most people from buying into it. By defending it, I was attempting to provide the wolves with some cover- in other words, make the wolves feel as if they could support it and not look like they were alone and conspicuous. They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for.

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 10:43 AM

Four votes are left.
In the interests of balance, I ask that the remaining villagers are not swayed by numbers. Vote for who you believe to be guilty.

Edit: Ah, it appears Evisse already stated what I had said.
Three votes left. Use them wisely.

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 10:46 AM

*tosses a raw fish in the direction of the phantom* :D

How convenient of you to appear precisely now, phantom.

If I am to be lynched I shall of course meet my unfortunate demise with dignity, despite my low bearing, but the village shall be none the better for it. I can only be glad for those who did not vote for me as they will be the only ones with a clear conscience after this.

The Saucepan Man

06-04-2005, 10:46 AM

They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."The amazing thing is that it is just like the phantom to think like this ... :eek: :D

I would point out that there is a dreadful danger, as the votes currently stand, for any Werewolf who has not yet voted to ensure that two Villagers get lynched, one of whom is almost certain to be innocent. Please, let's try to ensure that doesn't happen ...

mormegil

06-04-2005, 10:52 AM

The amazing thing is that it is just like the phantom to think like this ... :eek: :D

But I would ask isn't it also like the phantom to know that he could say that and we would believe that was his intention thus giving him cover. He plans not only the next move but the move after that.

And the phantom has also said that he may go for me next round, which is fine, but to do so because I voted for him seems paltry and unreasonable. I have said that we ought to be suspicious of all but to threaten to go after me based on no evidence given seems petty and suspicious even more.

Firefoot

06-04-2005, 10:58 AM

Seven, ten, seven-tenths, same thing... :rolleyes: :D

I'm not really convinced of the guilt of either phantom or Evisse, though I am suspicious.

I could vote for Evisse; Evisse would be hung almost undoubtedly since Azaelia has yet to show her face.

I could vote for phantom; either both Evisse and phantom would be hung or it could still be either/or, depending on the final vote.

I could vote for Fordim and have virtually no effect on the voting whatsoever.

Umm...

++Fordim - he is the one who I am most suspicious of, and therefore cast my vote at the risk of seeming dispassionate about the end result.

Oh, and one interesting thing I noticed: we're at 90-something posts, which is only about 20 fewer posts than were in the entire 2nd game...

The Only Real Estel

06-04-2005, 11:01 AM

I am torn between a couple of different opinions at the moment. If we assume that Fordim's plan is has been to confuse us or provide the werewolves with an easier means of winning the game, then I should be following Saucey's reasoning and vote for Evisse, SoN, or Fordim. The most logical knee-jerk reaction would be for me to vote fore SoN because he voted for me. However, I do not see how this would help things because not only do I try not to hold gut feelings against people, I am not sure of his guilt. But since I am not sure of any one person's guilt it would seem that my obligation to the village is to make sure that one villager gets lynched and not two (I won't even go into what the odds would be that we could possibly score a double wolf-lynching, so I see no reason to lynch two villagers).

My vote goes to ++ Evisse.
If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

edit: I said 'my' suspicions. I hope that if I do not last the night all of your suspicions will turn toward SpM and the phantom and those two will be examined throughly. I still do not overly suspect them, but if Evisse is in fact innocent, they start to rise on my very own 'short list'.

the guy who be short

06-04-2005, 11:02 AM

Game? what do you mean, lass?
Ooh, times up.

Evisse the Blue

06-04-2005, 11:07 AM

Guys and gals, if you see me laughing on the way to the hanging spot, it's because I have a very weird sense of humour. :D
But some of you at least are sure to cry. :p

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-04-2005, 11:11 AM

And so the votes were scattered all over the place. The village was utterly bamboozled and had no clue as to what to do; they obviously never had werewolves to deal with before.

But so it was that Evisse the Blue attracted more votes than any other villagers.

"I can't believe what you're doing!" she cried, as she was led to the noose. Alternating between disbelieving laughter and anguished tears, she was a hopeless and sorry figure.

"Even if you do go ahead with this and hang me, I wish you well, and hope that you save the village. Please, go to my house." Such gracious and baffling last words, and she was met with bemusement by her fellows. They glanced nervously at each other, completely terrified by the scene unfolding in front of their eyes.

With the noose tight around the fishmonger's neck, the lever was pulled, and in the stony silence of the dusk, everyone heard the sickening crack of Evisse's neck. She hung still, and didn't move again.

The villagers wailed in realisation of their mistake, but the anguish that followed was even greater. Please, go to my house. What did that mean?

They quickly scampered to Evisse's small house, forced open the door, and after a quick search were positively shaking in fear. The books, charts and apparatus of the late Evisse the Blue told no lies: the villagers had murdered the Seer they did not know they had.

Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
Son of Numenor
the guy who be short
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 10

NIGHT 2 has now started. It will end in 24 hours' time at 6:30 PM GMT (that's 1:30 PM EST) and (12:30 PM Central) on Sunday, or earlier if all night-time business is received by me before then.

*Just a reminder: there's no talking during the NIGHT. The Hunter, the Guardian and the Werewolves (although amazingly not the Seer!) are the only players who have duties to perform. Thanks.*

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-05-2005, 07:59 AM

The villagers woke up early. They were still distressed by the horrible sight they had seen yesterday morning, and by the awful deed they had perpetrated in the evening. There was a nervous chill in the morning air.

Still, they got dressed as usual and went to get food for their breakfast. Greeting each other as they walked along the street, they noticed something slightly unusual: the village was quiet. But why? What was missing? Ah yes, the sound of poetry. The village bard the guy who be short was always awake before anyone else and could always be found sitting in front of the town hall reciting some of his beautiful poetry.........

So why the silence? The nervous chill suddenly became more apparent.

The villagers rushed to the bard's house and were relieved to catch sight of their friend's normally good-natured face. He was by the window, admittedly looking rather glum. What's the matter? shouted the villagers. As far as they could see, there was no new sign of werewolf activity, and their hopes were raised. Come on, friend they said, and told him of their thoughts. But there was no answer.

Confused, the villagers decided to go and comfort him. Perhaps he had just finished a particularly sad poem. the guy who be short was very talented, after all.

They found the front door open, so they walked in. Though they soon regretted it: inside the house, they found suspended from the ceiling, the decapitated body of the guy who be short.

Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
Son of Numenor
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 9

DAY 2 has begun now it is 3PM GMT (that's 10AM EST) and (9AM Central). It will end in 24 hours' time, or earlier if a majority vote is reached before then.

*Reminder: I should be able to post every result on time but I may sometimes be out by a few hours. This may look strange to some players, particularly the Americans. Still, votes should be cast within 24 hours and not after.*

mormegil

06-05-2005, 08:18 AM

Well Fordim must be a wolf right? I mean TGWBS (may his soul rest in peace) was against him and his ideas and so voted against him. Would it not therefore be logical to assume that Fordim wanted him out of the picture.

Please, this seems like too obvious of a set up. Now I realize that it is risky in defending somebody so I will not go that far as to say I think Fordim is innocent, however I hope we all see past what appears to me to be a sloppy set up. I think the wolves know that Fordim is on many people's suspicion list, heck he's on mine, so if they could do anything to cast more suspicion on him all the better.

I have my suspcions that I will expound on later today but right now I simply don't have enough time. I implore you to all look carefully at this set up and judge correctly.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-05-2005, 08:56 AM

Please, this seems like to obvious a set up. Now I realize that it is risky in defending somebody so I will not go that far as to say I think Fordim is innocent, however I hope we all see past what appears to me to be a sloppy set up. I think the wolves know that Fordim is on many people's suspicion list, heck he's on mine, so if they could do anything to cast more suspicion on him all the better.

Thanks for noting that mormegil. I realise that this is not a vote of confidence in me (wise on your part) but I think it’s a pretty obvious bit of slandering too!

First, some old business to clean up, then on to the new:

I stand by my strategies even though it is clear that they have not garnered any support. They were not put forth despite their “flaws” simply to garner responses, although getting useful responses was a big part of their purpose. I was asked several times yesterday to discuss this but I really couldn’t – what use is there in giving away all of my strategy to wolves and innocents alike? But as they did not get support, and as the seer is now dead (*glares at those responsible*) the point is moot.

The reason I say that the strategies were not flawed is that the logic behind them is sound, if not what people want to pursue here. Both strategies did in fact increase the risk to each player individually but this meant that they also increased the potential reward to the innocents as a group. Yes, the seer would become more visible, but we would have received the benefit of a lot of solid information; yes the short-list makes voting a danger to the one casting the vote, but that danger adheres to Wolves and Villagers alike. Like I said yesterday, the strategy does nothing to make the odds of catching a wolf better, it only makes the results of voting more useful and thus allows us to catch a wolf more quickly, using precisely the methods of deduction and analysis that we are already pursuing.

But that is all blood under the bridge: I happily put aside my strategies as insufficient to the task before us, if only because they have not garnered wide support. I will not reverse my opinion however, like some, (*eyes The Phantom*) and claim that they are “flawed” simply to make myself appear innocent to those who, strangely, equate that stance with a sign of innocence. I still maintain that those who seek a strategy, any strategy, are more likely to be innocent than those who do not – or those who work against common strategy…

And at the moment, I await other people’s ideas about how we can co-ordinate our votes in a way beneficial to the innocents.

But on to new matters: the lamentable death of the guy who be short and the search for the perpetrators…

As I said yesterday, I would be looking today at those who voted to lynch innocents, and those who appear to me to be working against a common front for the villagers. So here’s two lists –

Those who worked against developing a strategy (in order of vehemence, with the most opposed at the top):

SaucepanMan
the guy who be short
The Phantom (flip-flop)
Kuruharan
Firefoot
Mormegil

Those who voted for a known innocent:

Voted for Evisse (the Seer)

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
Kuruharan
SaucepanMan
Shelob

Voted for me

the guy who be short
Firefoot

No vote:

Azaeilia

The only people who appear on both lists are: SaucepanMan, Kuruharan, Firefoot, The Phantom, the guy who be short.

Now that tgwbs has been slaughtered in that clumsy frame-up I can remove him from the list: I’m almost tempted to thank the wolves, were it not for the loss of an innocent villager!

Of the remaining four I am most suspicious of SaucepanMan and Kuruharan for being consistently against my attempts to unify the village; I am less suspicious of The Phantom insofar as he at first supported my suggestions, but then turned on them (his claims at the time that this was strategic are highly suspect…I sense a bit of flip-flopping when he saw the way the wind was blowing). I’m not terribly suspicious of Firefoot insofar as her arguments against my strategies were aimed at my specific strategies and not so much against the idea of voting according to a communal strategy: that is, she seemed OK with the concept, just not my specific ideas. Also, she voted against me with tgwbs and not as a part of that suspicious block of votes that did in our Seer (who I think was perhaps a little too heavy handed with her hints yesterday).

So that’s where I am at the moment.

mormegil

06-05-2005, 08:56 AM

Just thought I would add this list to show who voted for whom. Maybe it will help to shed some true light on our councils and we can rid ourselves of the shadow the werewolves have cast over us and cost us our seer.

Fordim voted for Saucepan Man
TGWBS voted for Fordim
Mormegil voted for the phantom
Holbytlass voted for Azaleia
Oddwen voted for the phantom
Son of Numenor voted for The Only Real Estel
Shelob voted for Evisse
Evisse voted for the phantom
Saucepan Man voted for Evisse
Kuruharan voted for Evisse
The phantom voted for Evisse
Firefoot voted for Fordim
The Only Real Estel voted for Evisse
Azaleia didn’t vote at all.

It's always interesting to look at who bandwagons on votes i.e. who voted for Evisse and how quickly one after another. Obviously not all who voted for Evisse are guilty but it's worth a look. Then again perhaps no wolves voted for Evisse although this is unlikely and I believe we have at least one or two in that mix.

Edit: Cross post with Fordim.

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 09:06 AM

Surprisingly enough, up until Fordim's post I was inclined to agree with mormegil :eek: and say that killing TGWBS was a ploy to get us to lynch Fordim by mistake.

Then from Fordim's own mouth we have this line...

I’m almost tempted to thank the wolves

This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Shelob

06-05-2005, 09:35 AM

"We, with our quick dividing eyes
Measure, distinguish and are gone
The forest burns, the tree-frog dies,
Yet one is all and all are one."
(Judith Wright, Rainforest)

This was, I believe, us yesterday. Myself at least as I was rushed between testing and other irksome plans....

"this seems like to obvious a set up" ~mormegil

It is suprisingly obvious...the only thing I can think is that we should be looking at people who would want suspicion cast on Fordim...or, were there any, the other people upon whom TGWBS cast suspicion (though I can't find any...) since if he had cast suspicion on someone else but still voted for Fordim this set up would make Fordim look suspicious while almost hiding the other player...does that make sense?

Well,actually, no...I can think of one other possibility...assume Fordim is a werewolf, then by killing someone so clearly opposed to Fordim the werewolves would all but guarantee that everyone looks at the kill and thinks "It can't be Fordim, this is too obvious."...I'm not saying I believe Fordim to be a werewolf right now (I still hold the confusion he caused yesterday as a point against him, but from that we've all got a point against us so it doesn't really count) I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely...

I don't have a lot to add right now (as I have yet another busy day...) but I promise that I won't repeat my mistake of yesterday and try to rush in a vote...I'm busy all afternoon but I'll take the evening to read what I've missed carefully and give it thought...so long, of course, you don't all decide while I'm gone...

Shelob

06-05-2005, 09:37 AM

I started typing that up, got called away, came back and posted it...then read Kuruharan's post...

"It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment." ~Kuruharan

That's what I was thinking...I wish my post was that concise though...

mormegil

06-05-2005, 09:49 AM

I thought of that tatic as well Shelob however it is a very risky tactic. However if great risk pays off the rewards are great. So I don't suggest we just assume it to be a set up but we need to make sure we instantly don't accuse Fordim.

I think it's more likely that the wolves would kill TGWBS because he only cast suspicion on Fordim and if Fordim is not a werewolf it would implicate nobody else.

Firefoot

06-05-2005, 10:24 AM

I'm going to put up a tentative speculation that no werewolf voted for another werewolf on Day 1. There were enough different choices for votes that it would be easy to not have to vote for a werewolf and not look suspicious.

This would mean that of any two people who voted for each other, only one of them could be a werewolf. The only case of this is Evisse and phantom. I'm not sure that this is conclusive since these two were where most of the votes were distributed so it would make sense that they would vote for each other in order not to get lynched...

So until we know who a wolf is, this does not help a whole lot, but I thought I'd put it out there for consideration.

At the moment, my primary suspicions lie on SoN. His replies tended to be short and lacking strong back up for his opinions, and he was also in agreement of Fordim's plan (obviously this reasoning didn't work with Evisse, but I think phantom's reasoning that: "If I was a wolf I'd love this plan" still stands). His vote was also the only vote towards Only Real Estel, for this reasoning: "I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right." We at least had enough to work with that "just a feeling" is not a very sufficient reason for voting to lynch someone. (Note: I am not saying that I necessarily think Estel is innocent. I'm just saying I didn't see a lot of evidence of guilt.)

Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

And I'm still unsure of the phantom. He's just not been consistent enough.

And Kuruharan (though not nearly so high on my list), who has been extremely slippery in his opinions, and also would seem to have defended the odds of his being a werewolf a little bit too much.

The Saucepan Man

06-05-2005, 10:36 AM

Fordim, you are right to place me at the top of your suspicion list. Given that she was innocent, anyone who voted for Evisse is bound to attract suspicion, and rightfully so. And I was one of the most vocal in calling for her to be lynched. The Werewolves would have known that she was innocent (although not that she was the Seer), and I believe that at least one would have voted for her. I fully accept, therefore, that I am a target for lynching today (heck, it may have saved me from being killed last night). All I can say is that I am innocent, and simply (one might say foolishly) misread the signs. To Evisse, wherever she may now be, I offer my wholehearted apologies.

I certainly did detect in her contributions a certain amount of hedging. That was what convinced me to vote for her (prompted, as I note below, by Kuruharan). Now, with the benefit of hindsight, the reason for her hedging is clear. As I said, I misread the signs.

First off, I stand by what I said yesterday. I still consider Fordim's proposals to have been a perfect device for quickly identifying the Seer and reducing the number of Villagers early on. Obviously, I misapplied that belief badly, but I stand by the basic premise. (I would add that I am not against an organised strategy per se, but I see it as difficult to devise one which will not favour the Werewoves more, given their greater pre-existing knowledge.) I therefore remain suspicious of Fordim and agree with others that the gruesome murder of our poor Bard, one who voted for him yesterday, seems a little too convenient in seemingly placing him in the clear. I would also reiterate that, in making his proposals, he caused us to spend a lot of time yesterday discussing them rather than trying to find the Werewolves. If it was a tactic to create confusion, it clearly worked. I also remain suspicious of SoN, who accepted Fordim's proposals with little explanation.

But let's look at those who voted for Evisse, and when they voted. They were as follows (in order):

Shelob
The Saucepan Man
Kuruharan
The Phantom
The Only Real Estel

(Interestingly, Fordim listed them the other way round ...)

Now, with just over two hours to go, I was still undecided between Fordim, Evisse and SoN. I dismissed voting for Fordim because it would look like a knee-jerk reaction to his vote for me and also because, if he is a Werewolf, he was unlikely to have instigated my death during the night having voted for me. But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

Shelob voted first for Evisse, claiming not to have had time to have read the full discussion. Perhaps she rather than (or even in addition to) Kuru was trying to lead the vote away from SoN and towards Evisse.

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

So, my suspicions are currently directed towards Fordim, Kuruharan, Shelob and SoN. And I am now particularly suspicious of Kuru, given his approach of saying nothing controversial, but building subtly on what others have said to direct the thoughts of the Villagers in a certain direction.

But these are mere suspicions at this stage. I do not wish to say more nor put it any higher for the time being since, given the outcome of yesterday’s voting, I am sorely afraid now of being too decisive in my opinions …

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 10:50 AM

I do not wish to say more nor put it any higher for the time being since, given the outcome of yesterday’s voting, I am sorely afraid now of being too decisive in my opinions

And you people are accusing me of being slippery. :rolleyes:

Look, I'm innocent. I know I'm innocent and the werewolves know I'm innocent. However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

If I get lynched some of you are going to have very red faces and I'd urge you to look closely at those who were most vocal against me. But even more than them, look at the people who were secondary in it not necessarily the prime movers.

the phantom

06-05-2005, 11:54 AM

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.
Thank you for mentioning that. When I voted, I had three votes and Evisse had three votes. What was I going to do- vote for myself? Vote for someone entirely different?

There were a couple of people I would've voted for before Evisse, but the way things stood at the time I felt it necessary to vote for her to preserve myself.

*shakes head*

Our poor seer. She should've thought of what happened to Fordim last week before voting for me. Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one.

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

But maybe not... perhaps Morm and Saucy are in it together!

In this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=391654&postcount=5) post, Morm named both Saucy and Kuru, and in the following post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=391657&postcount=6), Saucy shoots back a bit. Perhaps the two wolves thought that if they pretended to suspect each other at the beginning that if one of them were caught it would make the other look more innocent. The trick would be to appear opposed but not actually try to get the other lynched. Notice in the post that while Morm is suspicious of Saucy, slightly more suspicion is put onto Kuru.

Morm continues his spat with Saucy here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=391663&postcount=9), Saucy answers him back here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=391668&postcount=12), and Morm responds here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=391699&postcount=26).

Also, I was on my way to being lynched (down 3 votes to 1) when Saucy stepped in and voted for Evisse. Is it possible that he knew both Evisse and I were innocent and wanted us to tie so we'd both be lynched?

Saucy and Morm are behaving much as I would behave if I were a wolf.

Now, don't snap back at me too much, you two. I would still lynch Fordim before you (and possibly one or two others), but in case I happen to get lynched today I just wanted to toss a theory out there before I die in case things get so bad around here that the villagers are willing to try a crazy theory.

And things probably will get that bad unless we get a slice of luck.

mormegil

06-05-2005, 12:11 PM

Well if that's not the greatest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen. I can say that I only "suspected" SpM and Kuru at the time to get peoples reactions and to start conversation. That is not to say that my fears have not elevated or diminished, simply that we needed to start somewhere.

Let me illustrate why this is a knee-jerk reaction.

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for

Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one

It is very clear that the phantom doesn't like people voting for him, though I can't blame him for who would like it? However my policy is and always has been to be suspicious of everyone and invite people to investigate me also. Now to vow to come after me if he is wrong seems so petty and illogical that I hope we can see past this front.

I will post later my suspicions with arguments to back it up not simply emotional reactions.

Firefoot

06-05-2005, 12:21 PM

I think I'd feel more inclined to side with mormegil on that one. The posts that phantom high-lighted are so early in the game that there was absolutely nothing to go on and, in light of mormegil's and SpM's other useful contributions, I am extremely inclined to just dismiss those posts as early banter. All save the last post were before Fordim's "plan post," when everyone was just figuring that there would have to be some luck involved in selecting someone to be lynched, so may as well pick someone, and Kuru and SpM would have been reasonable choices: both logical thinkers and, should they be wolves, no small threat.

And it does seem like a rather knee-jerk action on the part of the phantom...

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-05-2005, 12:40 PM

Kuruharan says in post 107:

However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

According to his own logic, the fact that there are people casting suspicion on him would indicate that they are Werewolves, insofar as they are trying to “drive the herd” toward hanging someone who is already under suspicion. Kuru, I would note, garnered zero votes yesterday to my two. So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

SaucepanMan made the point:

But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

More “herding”???

Let me point out that I’m not reacting to Kuru’s suspicions with new ones of my own: away back in post 99 I put him right at the top of my list with Saucy based on yesterday’s events.

(NB to Saucy: I had the votes in reverse order because I worked backward through the posts: but you are quite right, it is useful to look at them in proper chronological order so thanks for that – I must admit, that seeing them in that order does make The Phantom look a little less suspicious.)

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

mormegil

06-05-2005, 12:55 PM

As promised I would begin to explain my suspicions of who and why. My main suspicion has been and currently remains the phantom. What he has said and done just doesn’t sit right with me and I hope to be able to explain why.

He was quick to agree with Fordim’s idea and very uncharacteristically give little explanation. Now my position on Fordim’s plan is well known so I wish not to rehash that here. Suffice it to say that currently I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he meant it to stir up conversation.

In defending the plan, the phantom uses my name as an example (it could well have been anyone else though) and says this

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

Then is his notorious flip-flop post he arrogantly declares that a villager naming a wolf would be near suicide.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this? Also the phantom is claiming that he suspects Fordim

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

If he suspects Fordim how can we buy into his defense that by agreeing with Fordim’s plan he was opening a door for the wolves to agree because the illustrious phantom has agreed, therefore it must be okay. The phantom knew that this plan would benefit the wolves and quickly agreed to it hoping to get innocents to agree as well. It’s asinine to assume the phantom agreed with it just because he thought he could lure the werewolves into agreeing when he himself suspects the author of the idea.

I see a possible (mind you I still don't think Fordim is innocent) framing attempt gone awry and now he is desperately trying to redirect guilt and suspicion.

I understand why he voted for Evisse. First, because he knew her to be innocent and saw and easy target to lynch. Second to protect himself but he didn’t give any explanation as to why he voted for her. Not even I’m voting in agreement to what SpM has said. To not give some sort of backing to something he does is not like the phantom at all.

And finally I must say,

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

Well I must say that the wolves have benefited a great deal more from her death than they would yours.

I have other suspicions that are on my list though they have been discussed by others.

They are Kuruharan, Fordim, Shelob and Son of Numenor top my list though other are near such as Saucepan Man(mainly for his spearheading the “lynch Evisse” initiative). And Azaleia due to her silence.

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 01:11 PM

So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

Quote:
This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

Yeah, but the suspicion you've brought on yourself is your own fault.

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly. He accuses me, I speak my bit, and he suddenly goes suspicious quiet even though he has still been around. It is almost as if he and his cronies said, "Oh crap! When we lynch Kuruharan everyone will see that he was innocent! Those of us who pushed for his death are going to look really bad! We've got to shut up for a bit and hope somebody else takes the bait!"

At the moment I'm also inclined to think that Firefoot may be among those cronies.

I'm also still suspicious of Fordim.

the phantom

06-05-2005, 01:11 PM

Since when am I a knee-jerk type of person?

No, Morm, you and Saucy's chatter at the beginning got my attention immediately, since it was slightly akin to the way I pretended to be suspicious of Nim right away in that other-town-that-I-shouldn't-be-mentioning.

And as far as threatening to go after you, I said it because-
1) I had already thought of a Morm-Saucy duo and figured I might bring it up the next day. By the way, that's why I used your name and Saucy's name in my example.
2) I'm the phantom. I'm no stranger to threatening statements. For example, remember when I threatened (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=387671&postcount=26) lmp? And in this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=382100&postcount=49) post I said to Boromir "Do not be so eager to snipe, Boromir, especially in my direction. I don't like it."

Directing a menacing statement towards you for voting for me is entirely phantomish.
I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this?
Are you wanting to know why I asked the question "Has no one else noticed this?"?

I asked the question out of shock.

Yes, there were people like yourself and Firefoot who seemed opposed to the plan, but I could not believe the lack of vehemence. The plan was a guaranteed seer-killer. Though others touched on the anti-seer implications, no one clearly screamed it as I did. No one seemed as afraid of the plan as they should've been.

That's why I asked that question.
One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…
I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.
My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly.
It's nice to see I'm not alone.

The Saucepan Man

06-05-2005, 01:24 PM

... even though he has still been around.Hoe perceptive of you Kuru. Yes, I have been around without making further comment. Largely because I am reviewing the proceedings to date in an effort to draw something useful from the current chaos, rather than throwing accusations around willy-nilly as many others seem to be doing.

I have set out my intitial suspicions for today, but have very little else to go on at the moment. When I do have more, I shall share it.

I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.What a curious comment ...!!?? :eek:

Holbytlass

06-05-2005, 01:31 PM

Holbytlass

06-05-2005, 02:00 PM

I hope to have the council's leave to get my family from the river. And I hope not to bring suspicion on me further. :rolleyes:

the phantom

06-05-2005, 03:40 PM

I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.
What a curious comment ...!!?? :eek:
Maybe so- but considering that we have no seer and therefore no concrete knowledge, my suggestion does not seem too over the edge. We are in an over the edge situation, after all.

What do you think is more likely, SP- that Fordim is a wolf, that SoN is a wolf, that Morm is a wolf, or that one or two of the quiet group is a wolf? Who knows? There isn't a clear cut favorite.

And at this point I'm not terribly afraid to call attention to myself and risk getting lynched. The wolves have defeated two villages already, and those villages did not lynch their seers the first day. Based on previous experience we will likely lose, so I might as well say what I think with no fear. And if I get killed, at least I won't have to endure the rest of the slaughter.
And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch. :p
I hope to have the council's leave to get my family from the river. And I hope not to bring suspicion on me further.
What? Leaving in the middle of debate to go swimming? You don't seem too concerned about our fate. You must be a wolf! :p

Holbytlass

06-05-2005, 04:35 PM

swimming-haha, we wolves like to keep our coats clean. Actually my husband and children brought back supplies for the shop.

What I find disturbing is Kuru's saying here...
The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.
And Phantom's saying about future seers don't vote for me on the first day and other sayings of his that Mormegil pointed out (post109). They both sound very pompous, it reminds me of the theives in The Emperor's New Clothes...you know, they said if a person couldn't see the clothes, that person was stupid. It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them under threat that the voters come off looking like wolves.

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 04:59 PM

Go ahead and lynch me and find out! ;)

I promise you I'm telling the truth. When I'm gone and you see that I'm a villager (and you will) just make sure and hang Saucepan Man. :p

Shelob

06-05-2005, 05:48 PM

"A separate time a separate place
The glass reflects a single race
Fighting for self preservation
Each a single dying nation"
~Caladre (aka. me!)

"There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch. " ~The Phantom

Phantom...how good are you with numbers?

The score is currently werewolves 3 villagers 9...if you lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, yourself and I (8 people) and you either get no werewovles or only 1 then the score will be

Werewolves 3 Villagers 1 (if no werewolves in that group)

or

Werewolves 2 Villagers 2 (if only 1 werewolf)

in either case Werewovles win...and if you don't mean that this would be an uber-double-lynching (which is rather how I read it esp. given "I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.") then so long as the werewolves don't kill anyone on that list they're fine 'cause we'll only lynch people from the list...

...actually...isn't that idea rather too close to the "short-list" plan suggested yesterday for comfort?

As to grouping me with "the quiet group" I do appologise for that...Yesterday I knew I had SAT testing in the morning but thought I would have the afternoon free..then my parents sprang "family time" on me so I got dragged shopping and had to watch a movie (they thought it would 'de-stress' me...instead it 'distressed' me)...as for to day I thought I would only be gone a few hours in the afternoon for a graduation party (not mine...so don't congratulate me) but what my parents failed to tell me was that it took up half the day...again my sorrows from this point onward I should be a more active voice in our discussions.

Finally, as to whom I know are under suspicion, and whom I myself suspect, I think that the argument against Kuru has some merit...however given that he says
"Go ahead and lynch me and find out!"
I rather suspect he's telling the truth...at this point in the game it would be very risky for a werewolf to risk being voluntarily hung...the odds are still bad enough that the werewovles as a whole don't really gain much by sacrificing one of their own...

I can't agree or disagree with the arguments saying something to the effect of "The Phantom has been acting uncharacteristically therefore he's a werewolf"...I don't know what's 'characteristic' for the Phantom...however he has been seeming to try and keep up the levels of confusion...and, as I described above, his "Lynch them all" plan, unless you know you've got more than one werewolf, will fail miserable...if he's a werewolf all he had to do was choose suspicous people and make sure that he was the only werewolf...probably an easy task at this point--given all the suspicions flying around...

As to Saucepan Man and Mormegil, they both seem to be rather focused on one person without forgetting to give thought to everyone...not on it's own particularly suspicous behavour and so while I don't remove them from lists I've not yet seen enough to convince me either way...

For Fordim I stated what I thought earlier in the day and have yet seen nothing to really warrant chaning my thoughts...he's still suspicous and deserves watching, but I don't feel a pressing need to see him hung.

Firefoot I've yet to create an opinion on...but, today at least, all Firefoot's suggestions are in terms of potential werewolf stragegy rather than reasons for thinking Person A or Person B to be suspicious, which could be suspicious had Firefoot not stated an opinion with mormegil and against the Phantom...hmm, incase you misread that I'm not trying to say "Firefoot is against the Phantom therefore Firefoot is not a werewolf" I'm just saying that the before described behavour would have been more suspicious if Firefoot had never stated an opinion...

As to everyone else (myself included for the fairness of those not-me reading this: ie. You all) I feel that basing suspicion solely on the fact that we've not spoken isn't really fair...I explained myself above and suspect that everyone else has similar reasons...I know Oddwen mentioned an inability to get to a computer today, and I saw elsewhere that Azaelia mentioned SATs in reference to yesterday (but since I saw her on today [and subsequently advised her to go to invisible] I wonder why we've yet to hear from her)...So everyone on this list I'm willing to give a chance to explain their absense before truely judging...

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-05-2005, 06:41 PM

The Quibble: a picture is hung upon the wall, a person is hanged by the neck until dead.

The Plea: Shelob and Firefoot are quite correct, I think, in agitating for more discussion of developing a strategy rather than assessing blame. I've tried it...are there any other ideas about how we can co-ordinate our actions to put the wolves at anything like a disadvantage?

A thought has occurred to me: perhaps we could focus more on making arguments about whom we think is innocent rather than guilty? That will prevent the finger-pointing and defensiveness. For my part, I am almost certain that Firefoot is innocent, insofar as she voted for me yesterday: seeing as I am attracting so much attention, I am one of the Werewolves' best friends at the moment: the last thing they wanted is to have me dead (that would have made their gambit of killing tgwbs rather pointless). I also lean toward Mormegil and Oddwen as being innocent, insofar as they voted for The Phantom using logic very much like that which led me to vote for Saucy. (Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt for either TP or SpM, both of whom have gone a long way to allaying my suspicions of them this day.)

Anyone else out there think there are villagers they can trust?

Holbytlass

06-05-2005, 07:01 PM

(Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt
But I think it is a backway to group people. However, for the good of the village, I will say who I think is innocent. First and foremost ME, I think you may be innocent Fordim, at least I think your intentions are. That doesn't mean I think who are opposed to you are wolves, just misguided.

So you see, the danger in this plea, for myself, I now have put myself in Fordim's 'group' therefore I must be a wolf. And had I said 'nea' to this recent idea of pulling together against wolves, then I must be a wolf.

The Saucepan Man

06-05-2005, 07:22 PM

Well, I have reviewed the proceedings to date and what has it told me? Not a lot I am sad to say. The Werewolves are doing a good job at merging in.

But I have gleaned a few possible insights (and I put them no higher than that).

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him. Secondly, I don’t (on reflection) go with the “double bluff” theory concerning TGWBS’s murder. If Fordim is a Werewolf, TGWBS’s death clearly puts him in the frame. Yes, a Fordim Werewolf might have bargained for the likelihood that it seems too obvious a “frame up”, but that would still carry a risk for him (ie that it would be seen as a “double bluff”). Wouldn’t it be more sensible for the Werewolves to frame Fordim, on the basis that he is already a lynching suspect and then point out the “double bluff” theory? And even if Fordim is not lynched, there are enough other non-Werewolf lynching suspects (myself, for example) to give them ample opportunity to try to ensure that one of their own is not taken. Framing Fordim carries no real risks for the Werewolves. It might get him lynched, but no matter if it does not. Whereas a Werewolf Fordim relying on TGWBS's death being seen as too obvious a frame-up is putting himself at quite considerable risk.

So, who pointed out the “double bluff” theory, thus implicating Fordim? Well, I did (and I have since reconsidered), but the first to do so were Kuru and Shelob.

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations. These are the suspects who I consider may be Werewolves attempting to “fly under the radar”.

The first is Kuru. He pretty much followed the “under the radar” strategy on Day 1, but ended up edging me towards Evisse and voting for her himself. He has been more vocal in his accusations today, but all that he has really done is attempt to direct the voting towards Fordim and me, both prime lynching suspects for today. Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said) I now strongly suspect Fordim to be. To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

The second is Shelob. On the first day, she gave quite strong support to Fordim’s “Seer dream” proposal, and then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected! There was no transition whatsoever between the two contrasting positions. Other than that, the only accusation that she has made has been directed at Fordim. And, in her last statement, she vaguely supports Kuru.

The third is Holbytlass. She offered no strong opinions yesterday, and ended up voting for Azaelia on the “flip of a coin“. The only evidence against Azaelia is that she has not contributed much. Not nearly sufficient evidence to warrant a vote, in my view. And, having yesterday voted for Azaelia on the basis that she has been quiet, Holbytlass today said, quite angrily:

I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything.Anyone notice an inconsistency there?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence (other than the fact that morm voted for him). He has also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect. That makes him a suspicious character. But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

Mormegil I have no basis upon which to accuse. He has done nothing to arouse my suspicions, while nevertheless being quite forthright in his opinions (ie not "flying under the radar"). And I am reasonably convinced of Firefoot’s innocence, largely because her thoughts seem to be going in the same direction as mine.

That leaves Azaelia and Oddwen, who I have no handle on (unsurprisingly, given that they have been pretty silent throughout). What can I say? One or both of them might be Werewolves, but I have no real basis for accusing them.

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

Azaelia of Willowbottom

06-05-2005, 07:52 PM

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

I agree, Holbytlass. I have been away all day, and it's difficult to keep up with this discussion, everything moves too fast.

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

It could be one strategy to be quiet and hope that no one notices you... But what is, perhaps, more suspicious to me is talking TOO much, TOO fast, and trying to, perhaps draw attention away from oneself or the matter at hand in the hopes that everyone else would be distracted.

So, I'm not going to try to draw attention from myself. I may be low-key, but I'm certainly not evasive. Go ahead, lynch me...but I will tell you now that just because my life has been busy these past few days doesn't mean that I am a werewolf.

Because my particular schedule, the time that the DAY ends is particularly inconvenient, and I probably won't have time to say much more before then...
So I will be either very brave, or very foolish (most likely the latter) and cast my vote now for
++ Phantom because I don't like how he deflects from himself and put suspicion on myself and others who may not have been given the opportunity to post. And now I know that I am pretty much dead...but I have the feeling that I would die very soon anyway.

Holbytlass

06-05-2005, 07:55 PM

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM. I DID get all bothered about being called a wolf on the basis of my being silent. It WAS hipocritical of me. I admit I took the easy (and cowardly) way out of yesterday's vote. I didn't hide that fact, I said it was a coin-flip.
I suppose my trying to be diplomatic has brought suspicion on me. I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent. And yes, I said more stuff, too.
I don't know what to say, other than the tide has turned to those who 'follow'
even Kuru said about looking to those in second...

If I get lynched some of you are going to have very red faces and I'd urge you to look closely at those who were most vocal against me. But even more than them, look at the people who were secondary in it not necessarily the prime movers.

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

Firefoot

06-05-2005, 08:17 PM

Shelob, I think you were taking phantom's "There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch." a great deal more seriously than it was meant to be taken. At any rate, it made me laugh a little.

Anyway.

I too am leaning toward Fordim's innocence, for all that I voted for him yesterday, for similar reasons as SpM posted above. I would expect a werewolf to do a lot more hedging than Fordim has been doing.

I am also fairly convinced of the innocence of mormegil and SpM, as neither of them have really given me any reason to suspect them.

I am unsure about TORE, phantom, Shelob, Holbytlass, and Kuru. TORE, I have felt somewhat suspicious about but have failed to see conclusive evidence in either direction. phantom's activities are just confusing me; they don't seem to be normal, phatom-like posts, especially his largely unreasoned accusation of mormegil. Shelob, I have failed to see a lot of evidence for or against, and would be more willing to accept if she didn't seem to be 'slipping under the radar' so much. Holbytlass, I am fairly willing to accept her defense, though her voting of Azaelia did seem rather random. She is also getting very defensive, though perhaps rightfully so, without doing a whole lot of speculating on her own part. Kuru seems to me to either be a very confused villager or a werewolf who is drawing too much attention to himself. In his post before his latest, he outlined Fordim and SpM, whose innocence I am fairly convinced of, and myself, of whose innocence I am certain, to be on his suspicious list. But I'm not sure, and I am not quite ready to lynch any of these people.

My suspicions still lie heavily on SoN, for reasons which I have already stated. Nothing has yet been said to prove me otherwise.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy. Unlike Azaelia who had not posted at all until just now, Oddwen actually did show up to vote. She even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries. If she really is an innocent villager, this doesn't seem like the greatest plan; obviously you would want to make the best possible choice. But a werewolf would already know who is innocent and know their targets, therefore by getting a decent summary s/he would know who to vote for without looking conspicuous. (If this were true of Oddwen, it would argue phantom's innocence.)

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 08:28 PM

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations.

That is because you are my primary suspect. We should only lynch one per day. Why cause distraction by naming other names?

Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said)

Odd. So do I!

To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

Yes, accusing someone who is innocent is perfect werewolf strategy! You have got that part down. ;)

The phantom has...also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect.

Funny. I think this is why he may be in the clear (maybe).

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

You are going to be feeling soooo silly if you get me lynched. I'm beginning to suspect that your buddies have already written you off as lost after today and have told you to try and get rid of me anyway as they stay in cover (or at least try to).

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

It is a virtual certainty that I am going to vote against the Saucepan Man, but I'm going to wait just a little bit to see if anything else interesting turns up.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. ;) )

Shelob

06-05-2005, 08:29 PM

"Shelob, I think you were taking phantom's "There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch." a great deal more seriously than it was meant to be taken. At any rate, it made me laugh a little." ~Firefoot

Perhaps...I just read it and immediately thought something to the effect of "MERG! Meh-Meh...GAHH!!"...translated into English that would be roughly equal to "Why in the world would ANYONE suggest this!?! It's so DUMB!"...given that reaction can you really blame me...also I'm infamous for missing jokes, even with things like body language and giant "THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...

Saucepan Man, I can understand your reasoning just wish that the references you make were more accurate...

...For startes does saying "I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots." really counts as "quite strong support"...
...secondly you said
"then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected"
What I did was use your usefull list as a summary of behavours so that I could post before being dragged off...what I actually said was
"Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them"
...I disagreed with one, and so didn't want to use it, and didn't mind the other, so didn't mind using it...Evisse disliked both but didn't mind using both...it was that behaour that I found suspicious...not the fact that she supported the idea...

Holbytlass

06-05-2005, 08:37 PM

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. ;) )

Oh. Thank you for clearing that up. I see now what you mean. Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

the phantom

06-05-2005, 08:50 PM

They both sound very pompous
Me? Pompous? No way. :p

Remember the sig I used to have- "the phantom has posted. This thread is now important."?
It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them
You missed the point of my comment about not voting for me on day one. It was sort of a joke. Evisse voted for me on day one and got lynched. In the last coughgameahem, Fordy voted for me on day one and got lynched. I wasn't trying to scare people- I was noting what I saw as a humorous coincidence.
There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch.
...."THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...
It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by-> :p
The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence
I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

And everyone notice that Azaelia doesn't have time to post much, but certainly has the time to pop up and cast a vote for an innocent (me).

The Only Real Estel

06-05-2005, 08:52 PM

First of all, I feel the need to not only re-explain my absence (to make sure everyone caught it), but also defend myself. Some suspicions have been cast in the direction of those who have been inactive so I must say that I am sorry that I was not able to post sooner, but I did give notice on the village message board (werewolf 1) that I wouldn’t be able to post much if any today.
Now, for the defending I think I need to do.

Originally posted by Firefoot:
Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

Although Firefoot partially bases her suspicion of SoN on his seemingly evidence-less accusation of me, she does go on to say that she at least somewhat suspects Shelob & I. But I must correct you. At first I was for part of Fordim’s plan (as were almost all of the villagers), but I changed my standing once I noticed the stupendous errors of my reasoning (look back at my comments on this matter in the past to see more about this). So to say that I voted for Evisse and did not oppose Fordim’s plan is not right. What is right is that I voted for Evisse, which I will now explain. My gut feeling was most certainly not Evisse, I was going to vote for the phantom, but allowed my head to talk me out of it until it was to late & I found myself forced to vote for Evisse because the vote count was 4 for Evisse and 3 for phantom. Obviously that problem with this vote count is that any werewolf could swoop in at the last second & lynch two villagers – this I obviously could not be responsible for letting happen. After waiting to see if I could catch a wolf trying to tie the vote, I then cast my vote at the last possible second for Evisse. Unfortunately, she turned out to be the very thing that we had spent most of our debate time arguing about how to protect (the seer, or course!). Fortunately, my vote was not the deciding factor, so I didn’t feel as badly for her as I would have if I would’ve broken a tie between the phantom & her. Four to three would’ve gotten her hung just as badly if I had not voted at all.

Both originally posted by SpM:
The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

A good observation, but you have left out one possibility. Put simply it is this: Since I was sure of neither phantom’s guilt, nor Evisse’s, I was trying to make sure that two innocent villagers did not get lynched at the same time. Using this logic (which was my motivation for what I did), if phantom turns out to be guilty, that doesn’t at all mean that I am guilty as well.

Oddwen

06-05-2005, 08:59 PM

As I have said before, I didn't expect to get online today...I'm lucky that I am now.

Firefoot- that day I was rushed knowing that I couldn't be online for days, and I feared not getting a vote in at all, so I voted for the one that seemed best to me at the time. And the phantom's actions are unlike the phantom that I'm used to seeing, (little of that though there is) - though now that I've had a chance to review the discussions at length, there may be a reason for it. Deliberately going against what people think he would do, perhaps, to draw attention to himself - or away.

She (Oddwen) even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries. No I didn't.

Holbytlass's sudden outburst and furry jests seem reminiscient of a Thrasher who comes to mind...

Kuru seems very confident that he's going to be lynched, and that we're going to be sorry. Though from what I garner SpM seems the only one highly suspicious of him, correct me if I'm wrong.

Gah, only a few minutes left to me online. I'll try to put more thoughts into order tomorrow morning, but before I go I just wanted to say:
Though honest absenteeism isn't a crime, lurking is the thing we should be worried about.

The Saucepan Man

06-05-2005, 09:00 PM

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM ... I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent. Well, I didn't see your comments on Fordim before I posted. I must admit that they alleviate my suspicions of you somewhat.

But I remain very suspicious of those who seem reluctant to make their thoughts on who might be the Werewolves known. And you and Shelob most certainly fall into that category. Shelob really does concern me, though, with a number of posts which, despite their length, do little do advance our search for the Werwolves.

But Kuru seems determined to weedle his way to the top of my suspect list at the moment. Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add), but methinks he doth protest his innocence rather too much ...

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you) and then, today, posted and then did not post again for a while? That's all it seems to consist of as far as I can see.

mormegil

06-05-2005, 09:05 PM

by-> :p

I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

Phantom I would ask you a better way to get the conversation started? Perhaps I will just ask..."Okay now somebody killed Eomer I need to know who. You can whisper it to me if you'd like." Come on. Something had to start. To be honest a bit SpM's defense of you has made me a bit less leary of you and I'm not sure if I'm voting for you this round or not. Initially I was but then I read SpM's ideas and I'm willing enough to change my mind if somebody shows me where I'm wrong. Although defending you a bit makes me slightly more suspicious of SpM. I would say that my list is as follows.

Kuru and SoN tied
Phantom--be glad you use to be first
Shelob
SpM and TORE tied

Though I would like to hear anything from SoN today

Firefoot

06-05-2005, 09:26 PM

Oddwen - my apologies, I was going for memory (bad me) and now that I look at your post again I see that I was mistaken. Either I completely invented something or I was getting you confused with someone else. That was my fault for not being more careful about who and why I was accusing.

Shelob

06-05-2005, 09:32 PM

"It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by-> :p " ~Phantom

I saw the smiley...but it didn't register in my mind until the above comment...see what I mean about missing those signs?

Saucepan Man...this will be somewhat rushed as I am tired and need to go to sleep as I have school tomorrow, but if you want a list not of my reasons for suspicion but for a straight forward list which says whether I think a person to be a "Werewolf", an "Innocent", an "Unsure", or a mix I'll give you one...it's got very brief explanations (if any) because it's well past 11...but if it will reassure you regardless...

Azaelia of Willowbottom--"Unsure"
Firefoot--"Innocent", only one who hasn't really been pulled into anyone's theories...open to change.
Fordim Hedgethistle--"Unsure", leaning towards "Innocent"
Holbytlass--"Unsure", leaning towards "Werewolf"
Kuruharan--leaning towards "Werewolf", too suspicous to be an 'unsure', not suspicious enough to be a full "werewolf"
mormegil--"Unsure", with potential to lean towards 'werewolf'
Oddwen--"Unsure", as with Azaelia
Shelob--"Innocent"
Son of Numenor--Keep forgetting he's playing...umm..."Unsure" due to lack of real thought...
The Only Real Estel--leaning towards "Werewolf", closer to 'unsure' than the others in this position.
the phantom--leaning towards "Werewolf", in much the same boat as Kuru...for slightly different reasons
The Saucepan Man--leaning towards "Werewolf", kinda like with Kuru and Phantom...

Is this flexible? Yes. Does it explain my habit of listing thoughts and not names? No, but that comes from my nature of secondguessing everything I think, and of a strong dislike of announcing my opinions to the world. Will I vote now based on this? No. It's too late and since I know I'll be back again in the morning I would rather wait (ie: sleep) and see what others had to say before casting my vote...with luck we'll hear from those whom have not spoken much, or at all...

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 09:33 PM

Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

Actually, I'm not really joking. Clearly some people are not going to stop and look around themselves until I'm out of the way. When I am out of the way, the villagers are going to have a nasty shock and are going to have to start looking crosswise at the people that led them there.

Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add...

-and-

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you

Actually, if everyone will go back and reread the thread (pauses so everybody can go back and reread the thread) you will notice that Saucepan Man mentioned Evisse as being high on his list of suspects THRICE before I even mentioned her name.

my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN.
-post 48

My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN
-post 61

do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?
-post 62

The first post where I mentioned Evisse was post 63.

After I'd voiced my suspicions he would back up what I said but basically let me do his dirty work for him. And also notice how SoN completely dropped off his radar after that.

Also notice in Post 48 how he said he was least suspicious of Firefoot, TGWBS, and mormegil. TGWBS bought it. The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

For Fordim's peace of mind (if it matters to him) he's off my radar for the moment.

The Only Real Estel

06-05-2005, 09:39 PM

First of all: I know this is long, but please bear with it.

Now for a bit of question-raising. Although I appreciate SpM's seeming defense of me I still have to bring something up. Originally I was hung up with how I should be voting if Fordim's side was right or how I should vote if Saucepan's side is right. I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out - Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves. First I will give the condensed version of my reasoning for Sauce/phantom/SoN. I'm going to try to explain how I think they could've worked together so far/how they might in the future.

First the three wolves spotted some pretty major flaws in Fordim's plan (remember we are considering Fordim innocent for the time being) and decided that they could easily use those problems to paint him as the bad guy - they also saw that if they could draw the villagers away from Fordim's plan, there was a fairly good chance that they could catch the seer hanging around in defense of it (let's face it, protection would be attractive to a seer and this plan does offer some protection, it just came at to great a risk for me to implement with a clear conscience). Even if any villagers that the wolves tried to convince us to lynch/killed themselves were not the seer, the wolves could still end up with several innocents hung, so it would be a win-win situation well worth any risks for the trio.

First, they all acted for the plan, then Sauce & tp pulled out after 'just spotting' flaws in the plan (hoping to paint themselves as protectors of the innocent villagers?). SoM stayed behind so that they could paint a trio of wolves (Fordim, SoM, & the seer (they hoped)). When only three remained, SpM suggested this:

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty

Now this does not seem like very sound logic. Were Fordim a wolf, I doubt that he would have let all three wolves be tied together so easily, & I'm not entirely sure that SpM was really sold into his own logic, I doubt that he really thought that Fordim would be so irrational. Thise could simply have been a ploy to get a great mind (Fordim) lynched along with the seer (they hoped), while they killed others during the night - and getting both Fordim and the seer would only cost them a max of one wolf. And it might be possible that after hanging two innocents (both Fordim & Evisse), they might've tried to proclaim their strategy a dud & get out of it without having to hang one of their one at all.

Anyway, when there were just three wolves left, SpM suggested that Fordim, Evisse, & SoN were most likely the werewolves, but he suggested we start the lynching with Evisse because of her 'hedging'. Now, it did seem like Evisse was being cryptic, but now we know why. Perhaps SpM reasoned that she was more likely to be the seer than Fordim was, so he proposed to start with her (he obviously wouldn't want to start with his teammate SoN). Either way, he would win, knowing that Evisse was no wolf & guessing that perhaps she was the seer.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes? SpM & tp were, however, forced to vote alike to make sure that tp did not get lynched (& decrease their numbers). Later, SpM reminded us to make sure there was no tie in the vote, innocent enough, unless he wanted to make sure that one of his counterparts didn't get lynched with Evisse. It seems likely that he was hoping for one more vote for Evisse & not two more votes for Phantom. Unfortunatley, I fell for this because I wanted to make sure that two innocents did not get hung (as I mentioned in my defense above)). Now, I also mentioned that I waited until the last second possible to vote, hoping to catch a wolf, which I never did. It is plausible, I think, that one fo teh reason why a wolf did not try to swoop in to tie the vote (a prime opportunity, though perhaps a bit risky) was because one of their own was near the noose. At any rate, SpM, tp, & SoN had already voted before this, possibly because the knew they didn't want to hold their hand & tie it at the end - they didn't want their partner gone with who they hoped was the seer.

Also:
Originally posted by Estel:
And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

Originally posted by SpM:
I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

I was originally suspicious of phantom's turn-around, but let my own reasoning (above) convince me not to vote for him (which took out my prime suspect, causing me to vote late when it appeared obvious who I had to vote for). SpM verified what I said heartily. Now, I know that what I posted about the phantom is most likely true, so Saucey could've been innocently agreeing with them, or he could have seen a way of using the words of an innocent merchant to protect his partner in cold-blooded murder.

Given the evidence that I have listed above (& I do apologize for it being a bit long & a bit wandering at times), I am thinking we should follow through on the theory by lynching The Saucepan Man (though I am not yet voting), who is also under suspicion from several other sources.

If Sauce is innocent, I expect people to look at me, but I do believe that he has some hand in the evil doing about, unless I can be convinced otherwise. If Sauce is a wolf, we can then lynch SoN, & finally the phantom. Should I not live until the next day, I will say that I suspect Fordim almost as much as I suspect phantom. Therefore, if the first two lynchings are successful, but phantom is innocent, I propose we go after Fordim.

Son of Númenor

06-05-2005, 09:45 PM

I apologize for my late arrival today; I was installing a bathtub in the village down the road.

Another reason for my silence is that I am honestly stumped. I suppose I have an inherent inclination not to want to send people to their deaths without solid evidence. A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

Kuruharan

06-05-2005, 11:02 PM

Well, I may as well start the fireworks off here because I'm already in about the worst position and it is not going to do me any harm. I've already said about as much as can be said but to sum it up...

I make a convenient target for manipulation by the werewolves because of my role in Evisse's death. However, I've already shown that I was hardly the vocal originator of suspicion against her.

Ever since the start of this DAY The Saucepan Man (who was the vocal originator of suspicion against Evisse) has been gunning for me. You will notice that initially this DAY I was vocal in my suspicions of Fordim rather than him. I know I'm innocent, the only reason I can think of why Saucepan would be gunning for me so hard is that he is a werewolf and thinks I'm the easiest target for lynching. Firefoot also has been making inconspicuous motions in my direction (actually mentioning me as being suspicious in post 105 right before Saucepan took up the chorus in post 106).

Either way, lynch me or lynch him, I think it is probably a win-win situation for the village. Lynch me and you'll see that I've been telling the truth and the werewolves will have exposed themselves. Lynch him and I'm pretty certain the village will be down a werewolf with at least one solid suspect to follow.

If I am wrong and he is just an incredibly misguided villager, I'm more than happy to take the fall for it...but I don't think I'm wrong.

Anyway, I'm going to bed and have every intention of sleeping in tomorrow morning so I may not see how this plays out. If I get lynched or eaten remember what I've said.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

mormegil

06-05-2005, 11:09 PM

Okay here it is and I do hope that I am correct. While I do find Kuruharan extremely suspicious I just don't have that same gut feeling that I do about the phantom The more I think about it the more it looks like, perhaps, that SpM and the phantom are backing each other up. Their actions are very subtle but that is the way of those two. They always seem to have some hidden agenda. Unfortunately, for me, subtly is not my strength. I am open and forthright with my opinions and ideas.

What brought me to this possible connection is SpM's recent defense of the phantom. Mind you it wasn't really strong or overly convincing yet enough to initially change my mind. Also the phantom has implicated SpM and myself and he stated that he felt we were both wolves from the beginning, yet he does little in way of actually going after SpM. If indeed he believes SpM and myself to be guilty and himself innocent wouldn't the logical choice be to go after SpM rather than me? SpM has 10 times the intellect that I do and poses a much greater threat to innocents than I would. So based on that and what I have said before I am voting

++THE PHANTOM

While I don't have 100% certainty of his guilt, he has the most substanial data implicating him to my knowledge and quite frankly I feel more comfortable voting him this day than I do Kuruharan. If he is found guilty I suggest we look closer at SpM and those who support or don't argue one bit against either.

Due to time zones I needed to vote now and not near the end of the day...this round time favors the Brits on that.

It will not suprise me, though, if I am killed tonight.

the phantom

06-06-2005, 12:31 AM

Okay, okay! Stop! I've had quite enough of people saying stuff like "phantom's not being himself" and "phantom is acting different".

Of course I am!

I know I'm not supposed to mention the other games, but considering that my current behavior is being compared to my past behavior I feel the need to mention the other games.

Game 1: I voted correctly on day one and we got a wolf. On day two the seer identified a wolf. On day three I had three main suspects and three days in which to lynch them. I never felt out of control while I was alive in that game.

Game 2: I was a wolf, so I knew exactly what was going on, and I had a plan for absolutely everything that could possibly happen. I was confident- not scared of losing in the least.

This game: We lost our SEER the very first day! No one looks particularly more suspicious than anyone else, therefore I have no certainty whatsoever! There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Everyone understand?
So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.
I agree with that.
Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy.
I agree with that.
The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.
I agree with that.
How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes?
I agree with that.
A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game.
I agree with that, too!

I agree with everyone!

Do you see my dilemma? Do you see why I am perhaps grasping at straws? Because every single theory offered seems workable, and I have no way of knowing which one (if any) is correct.

The only thing I know is that I'm an innocent villager. That's not much to work with.

We have nothing concrete to go on. You might say "votes", but if we are using votes as our primary evidence, then I should be the last person you lynch today.

Why? Because, my vote is the least meaningful. Yesterday, it was obviously kill Evisse or kill myself. I had zero choice in the matter. We were tied at three a piece, and with the deadline only 20 minutes away it was possible that my vote would be the final vote, so of course I voted for Evisse. It was a no-brainer. It was beyond obvious. My vote for Evisse tells you nothing.

Lynching me today would kill yet another innocent. Pick someone else instead. Yes, it's quite likely that your choice will be wrong, but you definitely have a better shot at catching a wolf voting for someone else considering that I am most certainly not a wolf.

If you keep me around long enough, I may actually be able to form some solid theories to help you out.

Now, I'm going to go to bed for six hours and when I wake up I will read what is going on and cast my vote.

I sincerely hope that I do not awake to find my vote forced towards someone in order to preserve my own skin (like yesterday).

That means no more voting for me! Understood?

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 03:37 AM

There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.Amen to that! As I stated at the outset today, the outcome of yesterday has dented my confidence in my own efforts at deduction, and I find myself questioning the conclusions that I am reaching.

Take Kuruharan, for example. Earlier today, I was convinced of his guilt on the basis that he edged me towards voting for Evisse yesterday, was directing the voting towards me today and was protesting his innocence too much in the face of very few accusations against him. But this can all be explained innocently. His conclusions concerning Evisse yesterday may well (like mine) have been genuine, he may genuinely (but mistakenly) believe me to be a Werewolf and, if he is innocent, his protestations are understandable.

Kuru is still on my suspect list, but now I am now leaning much more towards Shelob and SoN. Shelob has been present without saying much, she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals leading her to vote for Evisse (who she was the first to vote for) and she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death, thus subtly implicating Fordim. SoN has been “lurking” (as Oddwen puts it) in my view, and appears now and then to drop subtle hints, most recently joining those who are seeking to implicate Fordim and myself. His vote yesterday remains unexplained, but might be looked on as an attempt to spread the voting and therefore possibly get two innocent Villagers lynched.

I will not vote yet. We still have over 4 hours ‘til the end of the day, and I would like to hear more from Fordim, Firefoot and mormegil, the Villagers whose innocence I am currently most sure of (to the extent that we can be sure of anything at the moment). I am tending towards voting for either Shelob or SoN, but if I see any convincing arguments in favour of one of them, or against anyone else, I am willing to change my view.

Finally, it seems that quite a few are now edging towards voting for me. Fine. Lynch me of you wish. It would be a mistake, but I am not going to go overboard in defending myself. I would just point out that I have not exactly been backward in coming forward and in sharing my thoughts with everyone as they have developed. In other words, I have not been doing a very good job at deflecting attention away from myself. If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 05:11 AM

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy. Unlike Azaelia who had not posted at all until just now, Oddwen actually did show up to vote. She even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries.

Oddwen - my apologies, I was going for memory (bad me) and now that I look at your post again I see that I was mistaken. Either I completely invented something or I was getting you confused with someone else.It was Shelob who claimed to have voted on the basis of my summary.

mormegil

06-06-2005, 05:29 AM

Why I thought that by now I've given everyone more than mouthful. If you want my opinion on your list I would be more willing to vote for Shelob currently than SoN. However I have already voted and silly me I woke up much earlier than I planned so that's why I'm posting now though it wasn't planned. It's only 5:30 here and I went to be after midnight.

But SpM simply based on your little list I would argue Shelob over the others if you would truly like to know, though look at the phantom fellow a bit also brewer. :)

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 05:44 AM

But SpM simply based on your little list I would argue Shelob over the others if you would truly like to know, though look at the phantom fellow a bit also brewer.The way that things are looking, voting for the phantom might be the only way of saving myself from a lynching.

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN, I shall vote right now, before it can be said that I was trying to protect a fellow Werewolf by voting for him only when it was safe to do so. I appreciate what you are saying about Shelob, morm, and I do still suspect her. But I have suspected SoN from the outset, and was only diverted away from him on the first day by Kuru's comments about Evisse. And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone.

So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR

There. It is done. I have probably sealed my own death warrant, either by lynching today or by foul murder tonight. But there it is.

Shelob

06-06-2005, 05:52 AM

Saucepan Man, you were misreading/misrepresenting me again...

"she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals" ~Saucepan Man

Frst off I'm not entirely sure what 'volte' means but since the definition seemed to have something todo with either turning in a circle or parying in Fencing I'm guessing you mean that I either edged about the point or made a quick-defensive change...in either case it's understandable, however I didn't mean for it to be read that way...I still think that the 'short-list' idea is inheirently wrong, maybe it's not flawed as I first saw it to be but something about it is just not right...as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

"she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death" ~Saucepan Man

Yes I pointed it out early...I was also not alone in doing so, Kuru pointed it out at about the same time I did and Mormegil then admited to have thought of it and not mentioned it solely on the basis that it was too risky. Kuru and I both, in pointing this out, did say that we thought it a risky plan and I distinctly said "I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely..." I don't hold with it now, it doesn't seem likely at all...

That you continue to misread/misrepresent me even after I've pointed it out worries me...if you are misreading me I can forgive you, it's an innocent mistake...if, however, you are intentionally misrepresenting me it either means you're an innocent who is an amazing asset to the werewolves because you muddy up the waters or that you are a werewolf leading a crusade against one you know to be innocent...
...I would give you the benefit of the doubt, I wish to think you just misread what I say, but one would think that if this were the case you wouldn't have repeated the offense after having it pointed out to you...esp. since the first of my complaints above is so similar to one I pointed out before...surely you can't have misread the same thing twice?
It is on this theory, that you are intentionally misrepresenting me, that I feel I must vote ++SAUCEPAN MAN. I am sorry for it, but since I shall likely not be back on before this day's end I feel it to be the best choice that I can make...

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 06:23 AM

That you continue to misread/misrepresent me even after I've pointed it out worries me...I can understand why you may think that, but what you call misreading/misrepresentation arises simply as a result of my attempts to summarise what you have said, rather to than repeat it at length each time that I post. Believe me, I took the "explanations" that you seek to give into account when forming my views.

if, however, you are intentionally misrepresenting me it either means you're an innocent who is an amazing asset to the werewolves because you muddy up the waters or that you are a werewolf leading a crusade against one you know to be innocent...While I am most certainly not a Werewolf, I would hate it to be thought that I am an innocent asset to them. All that I have sought to do is set out my thought processes in the hope that they may be of assistance to those others amongst us who are also innocent. If that's "muddying the waters", then I am sorry, but I would rather make my views known and accept the risks that go along with that than do nothing whatsoever to advance the Villagers' cause.

A final plea to those who have not yet voted. A Village troubled by Werewolves is a sad thing. But a Village troubled by Werewolves and lacking anyone to brew the beer is sadder still ... :D

Oddwen

06-06-2005, 06:44 AM

Here's the post I promised - I suppose I shall detail some of my suspicions in it.

Zali - Besides her obvious abscence, in her single post she seems pretty much given to the idea she'll be lynched for it. Perhaps this is a too fatalistic approach.

Fordim - Suspicions, of course, ran high on DAY one, now he seems to have stepped back a bit. I mentioned him in my suspicions yesterDAY, and I still don't let him off the hook entirely.

Holbytlass - Again, her thrashing makes me nervous. And voting between the two absent villagers when there was other stuff going on - not allaying my fears either.

Kuru - Seems insistent that he's going to die, and that it'll be SpM's fault. Could this be part of a plan with SpM? - see below.

as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull
Useful for what? We have no seer.

SoN - His seemingly purposeful abscence makes me wonder...

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games?? Though you were acting that way BEFORE we lost the Seer.

If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others? I dunno...if you were a werewolf, what would the odds be that you'd be the most powerful one of the three? And would seemingly sacrificing yourself be a plan you'd use? Would Kuru's accusations of you be part of it?

And what's all this talk of double-lynchings?
If no majority is reached as a result of more than two players accumulating votes, then a runoff is held and the two highest vote-getters are on the block. Anyone who didn't vote for them originally must now choose between the two of them to determine which person will be lynched. If there still isn't a majority by then, a tiebreaker is used. One of the players at risk places a dagger in one of two boxes, and the other player chooses one of those boxes to open. If the box with the dagger is opened, that player is killed.

So my list is thus:

Holby
phantom
SpM
Kuru
Shelob
Fordim
SoN

I do not anticipate being online before the end of this DAY, therefore I must put in my vote for ++HOLBYTLASS now.

mormegil

06-06-2005, 06:49 AM

Thank you for clearing up the double lynching idea Oddwen and I think that it helps shed some light on people arguements.

Firefoot

06-06-2005, 06:57 AM

Well, I'm not going to be around for the end of the Day, so I will have to post my vote now based on what we have.

I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

I see that overnight people have started accusing me of echoing SpM. While it is true that our thoughts have gone in similar directions, let me assure you my opinions are my own. I have read everyone's opinions with equal weight and formed my opinions from that; perhaps SpM and I have marked out the same things as important. But I am not echoing SpM's thoughts. I am stating my own, which are often similar, whether or not they have already been said (if I didn't you'd all probably be trying to accuse me of 'flying under the radar').

(NB: On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.)

the phantom

06-06-2005, 07:17 AM

Well, this is my only chance to vote.

I'd actually like to vote for Saucy since he figures into a couple of ideas I've been working on puting together, but SoN also is in one of my theories so he's not a particularly bad choice.

Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 07:17 AM

On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.I agree. I was under the impression that we were using the rule change that I implemented for the second game. Perhaps Eomer could clarify, given the current state of voting.

As matters stand, the phantom, SoN and I will all be lynched. Heck, I would rather see myself lynched, innocent though I am, than potentially have two innocents hanged.

Edit: I wrote this before I saw the phantom's post. Although SoN is yet to vote ...

The Only Real Estel

06-06-2005, 07:17 AM

(NB: On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.)

I thought I recalled that.

Well, so far the voting goes:
3 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
2 for the phantom
1 for Holbytlass

I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it). But both Sauce and SoN are highly suspected by me right now and I'm split between the vote. I am 90% sure that we could bag a werewolf with Son, but almost equally as sure we could do the same by hanging Sauce (though his posts of late have cast a few shadows of doubt in my mind).
I plan on posting my vote late, again, hopefully more arguments will come to light by then.

Originally posted by SpM:
But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN, I shall vote right now, before it can be said that I was trying to protect a fellow Werewolf by voting for him only when it was safe to do so.
So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR

But just because you're voting for him hardly puts to rest any questions of league between the two of you. If a wolf senses his partner is going down (and SoN is now the top vote-getter) I would not expect you to vote last or vote otherwise; in other words I wouldn't be at all suprised to see you as a wolf taking down SoN, who is a wolf. And especially seeing how you voting for SoN momentarily tied him with yourself for the most votes.

mormegil

06-06-2005, 07:22 AM

TORE there is actually two votes for the phantom. Look at post 125 from Azaleia.

Edit: Ah I see that it has been corrected. :)

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 07:23 AM

Well, so far the voting goes:
2 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
1 for Holbytlass
1 for the phantomActually, it's:

3 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
1 for Holbytlass
2 for the phantom

If a wolf senses his partner is going down (and SoN is now the top vote-getter) I would not expect you to vote last or vote otherwise ...Yet I was the first to vote for him, at a time when only Firefoot, other than I, had given any serious indication of voting for him.

Holbytlass

06-06-2005, 07:25 AM

Actually, Estel, Phantom has 2 votes from Azalia and Mormegil.
So it's SoN-3
Phantom-2
SpM-2
Holby-1
myself, Fordim, and Estel needing to vote, and less than an hour to do so.
I was going to vote when there was a 3 way tie. Then Oddwen voted for me. Therefore I held off my vote in case I had to save myself.
I will vote for ++Son of Numenor for two reseans(sp?). Obviously now, even if Fordim and Estel vote for me I'm saved from the tied- double lynching. The other (and this is for when I originally was going to vote) I do think that Phantom and Saucepan Man are highly suspicios. Although at this point there smarts are needed. I am scared they are wolves using their wit against the rest of innocents. But then Kuru suggestion of looking to the secondary people comes to mind. If anything at all, the outcome of SoN's death will be very illuminating.

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 07:30 AM

... myself, Fordim, and Estel needing to vote ...... and SoN.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-06-2005, 07:36 AM

Well, one thing that has become clear to me is that I was right about this game when I first heard of it – until the third round, at the earliest, there is nothing approaching “hard evidence” to point toward any one person’s guilt. At this point it is still entirely possible to make arguments for or against everybody! But I am happy to see that the vote is being split amongst so many people, leaving very little wiggle room for the wolves. With five people voted for already, the odds are very good that one of them is a wolf, so we can watch the votes from here out with some interest…

As to my vote, I am stuck. I would love to vote for Kuru on the thinking that he is either, a) a wolf or b) a villager who is helping the wolves inadvertently with his rather confusing and confounding posts. Unfortunately, a single for him at this point is unlikely to get him lynched – the only way that would happen would be if virtually every who is still to vote followed my lead. If he turned out to be an innocent, then this would make me look very very bad. As much as I would like to play this game selflessly, it is clear that I need to take more care for my own skin than that. So for the time, I think, Kuru is safe.

My next choice after Kuru is The Phantom for precisely the same reasons: he is either a wolf, or a villager who is helping the wolves hide with his own flurry of distracting speculations and self-congratulatory “conclusions” about people. The other thing that speaks greatly in favour of voting for TP is that it will break the current three-way tie between himself, Sauce and SoN – the last thing I want is a wholesale slaughter!

Hmmmmm…things are happening fast. Since I typed that last paragraph, The Phantom has gone on to vote for SoN, apparently to save his own neck. Seems fair to me…

The votes at this moment so far as I can tell are:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 3

So what do I do? I’m tempted to vote for the Phantom anyway and tie it up again, putting pressure on the remaining voters…

Boy, but the squeeze is being put on me!! If I vote for someone now and they end up getting lynched and they’re innocent, I’ll definitely be considered a wolf. If I tie it up, and there are wolves yet to vote, then they will be able to decide whom to lynch…the safest course for me, personally, is to cast a “meaningless” vote for Kuru who, like I said at the beginning of this bizarrely stream-of-consciousness post, is my first choice…

Just read Holbytlass’s latest post (158) and note that it is down to herself, me and Estel to decide this thing…and Saucy in 159 reminding me of SoN.

All right! That tears it…I need to vote for somebody and I don’t want the weight of being the last to vote. As it would appear as though SoN is the “leader” and as it would appear as though he is trying the rather wolfish strategy of waiting to the last minute to cast his vote (as I would appear to be doing as well, I realize) I am going to vote for

++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

That having been said, if SoN is innocent, I am going to go after SaucepanMan and The Phantom with everything I’ve got in the next day, since they have lead the charge against SoN today…

Holbytlass

06-06-2005, 07:37 AM

oh, I forgot about him voting.....great, so much for thinking I was safe. :rolleyes:

The Only Real Estel

06-06-2005, 07:40 AM

I think I have my final decision but I am going to hold it a bit longer, I hope you all will not think less of me if I end up voting last (again).

I will say though, Sauce, that I'd like to hear as much compelling evidence as you have about yourself ASAP.

The Only Real Estel

06-06-2005, 07:51 AM

Well, since SoN is clearly the one to be hung at this point & he is near the top of my suspect list I see no need to hold my vote longer.

I vote for ++ Son of Numenor

And I am quite confident that we've finally taken a step toward thwarting the wolves.

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 07:51 AM

I think I have my final decision but I am going to hold it a bit longer ...With the votes from Holby and Fordim, the tally stands at:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 5

Since there are only two votes left, it will be SoN who faces the gallows.

I will say though, Sauce, that I'd like to hear as much compelling evidence as you have about yourself ASAP.You want me to provide evidence against myself? Nah, there's enough other people doing that at the moment, thanks.

Besides, if SoN's innocent I may well survive the night, but I'm toast tomorrow. :rolleyes:

Edit: Written before TORE's vote.

Son of Númenor

06-06-2005, 07:52 AM

I suppose my fate is sealed, but I still suspect ++the phantom more than I do myself.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-06-2005, 07:54 AM

The Only Real Estel

06-06-2005, 07:54 AM

You want me to provide evidence against myself? Nah, there's enough other people doing that at the moment, thanks. :rolleyes:

Was I not clear enough? I meant as much compelling evidence as you have about your innocene, not your guilt. Unless of course your :rolleyes: expression was more of a :p.

p.s. besides, I guess the majority of your evidence you had already posted.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-06-2005, 07:56 AM

I suppose my fate is sealed, but I still suspect ++the phantom more than I do myself.

So do I....

I am really sorry Sono, but this was just the safest course of action for the villagers: I couldn't let there be a tie!!

Of course if you are a wolf: die fiend, die! To the gallows with 'im!!

The Only Real Estel

06-06-2005, 08:02 AM

On the upside Saucy, if Sono is a wolf, you will not only be hailed as a hero (by me at least) and exonerated of all suspicions (by me at least), but perhaps then you and I can start to work together to bring down the rest of these hairy brutes...

On the contrary, my good Fordy. In another village around here a certain wolf was the second to vote on a teammate's guilt (the teammate was hung rather quickly) when he himself was not at all at risk. For SpM to vote SoN out does not clear him in my opinion, especially because he himself was at risk. I am not going to close my eyes & ears the next round & lynch SpM blindly, but I am hardly acquitting him when SoN turns out to be a werewolf (as I am sure he will).

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-06-2005, 08:03 AM

I am sorry for not being on earlier to clarify the 'double lynching' question. Because I did not say anything different as regards that aspect of the game from the last game Saucepan Man moderated, I must keep the rules as he had them. Also, I did not protest yesterday when the idea of a double lynching was recalled. So if the votes are tied then 2 (or more) will be lynched.

But that does not matter today! Voting is over. Results will be posted soon.

The Saucepan Man

06-06-2005, 08:04 AM

Was I not clear enough? I meant as much compelling evidence as you have about your innocene, not your guilt.I'll save that for tomorrow, if you don't mind, if I make it that far ...

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

The Only Real Estel

06-06-2005, 08:06 AM

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

Quite. And I will explain that tommorrow as well.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-06-2005, 08:19 AM

So it was decided. Suspicions of the contractor had been high since the initial murder of the philosopher. After the loss of the Seer and the brutal slaying of the Bard, the accusations had been red-hot. The village had decided: Son of Numenor must die.

Fools he muttered, as he was led to the platform. He had a damp, resigned look about him. He had expected to be killed for some hours now, but the actual deed - mere seconds away - seemed like a horrible anticlimax: a pathetic way to end his productive life.

Fools? Ha! We think not, you beast! yelled the villagers. They were utterly convinced they had bagged a wolf, and the sense of purpose and drive was almost tangible: it was as if the village had been lifted from the careful deliberations of the day, and the clear majority which they had reached.

Sono offered no more words. He let the hangman slip the noose around his neck. The lever was pulled, and he fell and his neck was broken.

Silence.....the villagers crowded round to get a closer look.

He's.....smiling! shouted one in disbelief.

And it was true. Son of Numenor had ended his life amid ruthless and brutal accusations: he was glad to be rid of this village which he had served so well, and which had rewarded him thus.

The villagers stood watching him for a long time. And then some began to cry....

Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 8

NIGHT 3 has started, now it is 3:20 PM GMT (that's 10:20 AM EST) and (9:20 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours' time, or sooner if all night-time business is received by me before then.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-07-2005, 08:02 AM

The villagers woke early again, and the weather fit the mood. It was just so grey. Everyone looked most unhappy.

But when they gathered together outside the Town Hall, they recalled a faint glimmer of the hope they had early yesterday; because no-one was missing.

Hark! this day promised oddities, for the Werewolves had killed nobody last night.

Here was a puzzle...

Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2

Score: - (after considering the advice of a previous moderator in great detail)

Werewolves: 3 (?)
Villagers: 8 (?)

DAY 3 has begun, now that it is 3PM GMT (that's 10AM EST) and (9AM Central). It will end in 24 hours time, or earlier if a majority vote is reached before then.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 08:11 AM

Hmmmm…ominous this is. Either our guardian guarded or our cursed villager defected. Thankfully we still have something to go on.

I assume that I hardly need say anything. However, just in case the point has yet to be driven home…

I assume everyone noted who took the lead in the “Let’s hang Son of Numenor” charge. (I swear, it is almost like he’s got hooks through everyone’s jaws). Also how after I pointed out the role he actually had in Evisse’s death, he ran away from that issue like it was a leper.

The Saucepan Man

06-07-2005, 08:12 AM

Zounds! A puzzle indeed.

My guess is that the Guardian was successful last night. Then again, this is simply based upon my growing belief that I am the Cursed Villager, so unintentionally effective have I been in furthering the Werewolves' plans. After all, I bear the responsibility for having pushed the village towards hanging two complete innocents, one of whom was our poor Seer.

I would suggest that you all go ahead and vote for me now, only that would be to kill another innocent Villager (for that is what I am). Mind you, if I am the Cursed Villager, you might be doing yourselves a favour even then.

I am not going to offer up any thoughts, theories or opinions, not for now anyway, as all I have said to date seems to have led the village towards ruin.

So, if you don't mind, I shall offer up my sincere apologies and go and spend what may very well prove to be my last day with a nice comforting barrel of Saucepan's Best Bitter.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 08:20 AM

Interesting!

After my normal night of study, prayer and meditation I took a bit longer to meditate on our current plight and have done some research about the happenings yesterday that I would enjoy sharing. It's a bit long so for that I apologize but ask that you read in and glean knowledge from it.

Here is the list of who voted for whom. (In order)

Azaleia voted for the phantom
Kuruharan voted for The Saucepan Man
Mormegil voted for the phantom
The Saucepan Man voted for Son of Numenor
Shelob voted for The Saucepan Man
Oddwen voted for Holbytlass
Firefoot voted for Son of Numenor
The phantom voted for Son of Numenor
Holbytlass voted for Son of Numenor
Fordim voted for Son of Numenor
The Only Real Estel voted for Son of Numenor
Son of Numenor voted for the phantom

Totals:
Son of Numenor: 6
The phantom: 3
The Saucepan Man: 2
Holbytlass: 1

The Six who voted a known innocent:
The Saucepan Man
Firefoot
The phantom
Holbytlass
Fordim
The Only Real Estel

Reasons for voting for an innocent.

SpM:

post 147 And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone. But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN

So essentially his behavior was odd and to make himself look innocent by killing somebody who was suggested was in league with him. Although I don’t find that suggestion being strong or rather well accepted. However to your credit SpM you at least stuck you your beliefs and didn’t lynch somebody because it was to save you, as other did.

Firefoot:

post 152
I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

Weak evidence at best and truly echoes SpM even though she defends herself from this in the next paragraph. Yet she doesn’t vote for two people with suspicion cast on them and voted for an innocent because he hasn’t spoken much. It seems that there is a subtle defense of both SpM and the phantom here, yet enough distance to not look overly suspicious.

The Phantom:

post 153 Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

WHAT!!! Did I read that correctly? Well I should vote for SpM but since he accuses me then doesn’t vote for me I’ll do the same for him. This coming from the man who repeatedly threatens that anyone who accuses him he will take down. The first 3 votes for Son of Numenor came from 3 people that are “suspicious” of each other and yet won’t vote for each other while naming them in their explanation. This is very, very suspicious to me and we may have a wolfish trio here. But the phantom reasoning is pathetic and laughable.

It just seems that they are teaming up yet trying to give a defense to themselves so when it was found out that SoN was innocent they could claim that they aren’t working together.

Moving on

Holbytlass

post 158

I was going to vote when there was a 3 way tie. Then Oddwen voted for me. Therefore I held off my vote in case I had to save myself.
I will vote for ++Son of Numenor for two reseans(sp?). Obviously now, even if Fordim and Estel vote for me I'm saved from the tied- double lynching. The other (and this is for when I originally was going to vote) I do think that Phantom and Saucepan Man are highly suspicios. Although at this point there smarts are needed. I am scared they are wolves using their wit against the rest of innocents.

So self-preservation was a factor. And thinking that we are keeping smart people because she's afraid that the werewolves are able to use their wit against us. It seems that if they are suspicious, which you admit, then maybe you ought to have looked a bit closer at them. My opinion of Holbytlass is that she is somewhat suspicious and could be the quiet wolf that attempts to fly under that radar while she supports the others who are more vocal. That support could be either voting with or not voting for her comrades. That said I feel she is the least suspicious on the list of six.

Fordim

Sorry but I feel I must quote almost his entire post—please read.
post 160

As to my vote, I am stuck. I would love to vote for Kuru on the thinking that he is either, a) a wolf or b) a villager who is helping the wolves inadvertently with his rather confusing and confounding posts. Unfortunately, a single for him at this point is unlikely to get him lynched – the only way that would happen would be if virtually every who is still to vote followed my lead. If he turned out to be an innocent, then this would make me look very very bad. As much as I would like to play this game selflessly, it is clear that I need to take more care for my own skin than that. So for the time, I think, Kuru is safe.

My next choice after Kuru is The Phantom for precisely the same reasons: he is either a wolf, or a villager who is helping the wolves hide with his own flurry of distracting speculations and self-congratulatory “conclusions” about people. The other thing that speaks greatly in favour of voting for TP is that it will break the current three-way tie between himself, Sauce and SoN – the last thing I want is a wholesale slaughter!

Hmmmmm…things are happening fast. Since I typed that last paragraph, The Phantom has gone on to vote for SoN, apparently to save his own neck. Seems fair to me…

The votes at this moment so far as I can tell are:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 3

So what do I do? I’m tempted to vote for the Phantom anyway and tie it up again, putting pressure on the remaining voters…

Boy, but the squeeze is being put on me!! If I vote for someone now and they end up getting lynched and they’re innocent, I’ll definitely be considered a wolf. If I tie it up, and there are wolves yet to vote, then they will be able to decide whom to lynch…the safest course for me, personally, is to cast a “meaningless” vote for Kuru who, like I said at the beginning of this bizarrely stream-of-consciousness post, is my first choice…

Just read Holbytlass’s latest post (158) and note that it is down to herself, me and Estel to decide this thing…and Saucy in 159 reminding me of SoN.

All right! That tears it…I need to vote for somebody and I don’t want the weight of being the last to vote. As it would appear as though SoN is the “leader” and as it would appear as though he is trying the rather wolfish strategy of waiting to the last minute to cast his vote (as I would appear to be doing as well, I realize) I am going to vote for

++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

That having been said, if SoN is innocent, I am going to go after SaucepanMan and The Phantom with everything I’ve got in the next day, since they have lead the charge against SoN today…

So let’s get this straight. You want to vote for Kuru but don’t because he probably won’t get lynched. So are you that bloodthirsty that you only vote those you think will be lynched? By your own admission you don’t vote for Kuru because it’s what is safest for you to do.

If I may rant for a moment. We need to stop that attitude and be a bit more selfless. If one is truly innocent than the goal should be to eliminate the wolves not save yourself.

So you suggest the phantom but end up not voting for him from what I inferred being a fear to cause a tie and letting other voters decide who to kill. Apparently you wanted your vote to really count.

Immediately after you vote for SoN you say

Quote ++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

However the one that could possibly be tied up at the end is the phantom who you yourself suspected and said that you didn’t suspect SoN. If it were me on the chopping block I would choose to have a tie and let the wolf come with me than me die alone. It seems like an exchange that I would be willing to take part in an innocent for a wolf.

If Firefoot’s not a wolf I’m suspecting that Fordim may be the third in the trio.

TORE:

post 163

Well, since SoN is clearly the one to be hung at this point & he is near the top of my suspect list I see no need to hold my vote longer.

I vote for ++ Son of Numenor

TORE seems to take sadistic pleasure out of being the last vote. Like Fordim he wants to make his vote count. As I don’t’ understand this philosophy of only voting those who are likely to die, there is great suspicion on you but not as much as the other four.

Now it’s entirely possible that not all three wolves voted for SoN but the only one I truly suspect out of the remaining would be Shelob who voted for SpM. Shelob could be guilty and SpM innocent or both could be guilty. Least likely both are innocent. The only other one with a possibility is Oddwen who voted for Holbytlass a seemingly random vote but unlike some of our others she wasn’t afraid to vote for somebody that may not be lynched.

Sorry this is so long and if I come across as expressing myself with vehemence it is only because I feel strongly that those who vote for an innocent who have less guilty evidence than others need to answer why. If this has earned me the odium of all, that is lamentable but I will not go lightly on those who act irresponsibly against somebody because they simply didn’t have a lot of time.

Shelob

06-07-2005, 08:35 AM

"my attempts to summarise what you have said"
"If that's "muddying the waters", then I am sorry"
~Saucepan Man

Given you're explanation I accept your appologies, I just wish you were more exact in your summarization...We can't afford to assume anything and poor summarization can only assist the werewolves...from poor summarization we'll draw inaccurate conclusions and end up lynching more of our own...

As to this mystery with which we've been presented...My bet is that the guardian pulled through to save a villager. My reasoning behind this being that the guardian would be able to look at everyone's reactions and judge who would be the best person for the werewolves to kill, just from what would be most strategic ...the Werewolves however would have no clues as to whom the cursed villager is...This isn't guaranteed, it just seems to me that it's more likely for the Guardian to have guessed the werewolves kill than for the werewolves to have guessed the cursed...

I would prefer to hear from others before giving much more thought to this, so I shall leave it now and return once more have spoken.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-07-2005, 08:51 AM

There are only three people who voted for both Sono and Evisse:

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
The Saucepan Man

Evisse and Sono (two of three proven innocents) voted for:

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom

The third proven innocent, The Guy Who Be Short voted, I acknowledge, for me. And, yes, I voted for Sono but as I explained at the time I was afraid that if I did not put the nail in Sono's coffin, a wolf could come along and force a tie and we'd end up lynching more than one innocent. And I would point out that TP and SpM had both voted for Sono before I, which is what caused the potential two or even three-way tie crisis, and that TORE waited until the last 15 minutes to vote after me.

If my obvious suspicions are correct, then I may have prevented TORE from tying things yesterday. And yes, I concede that this might all be part of some grand, Byzantine and hopelessly convoluted plot by the werewolves, with me one of them, to keep me in the clear. And my conceding that might be a double bluff, and my conceding of the double bluff is a tactic to throw everyone off. What can I say? I will let the votes and people's actions speak for themselves.

I would point out, though, that the wolves' first victim was clearly selected to make me look guilty. So either I'm an incredibly stupid wolf who just loves dancing on the edge of destruction by calling attention to myself, or I'm an outspoken -- maybe even pugilistic -- innocent.

I suggest we pick one of either,

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
The Saucepan Man

for hanging.

Oh, and I agree with Saucy, who is probably in a much better position to know than I, that we now have four Wolves to worry about...

mormegil

06-07-2005, 08:58 AM

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-07-2005, 09:32 AM

Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.

Fair enough.

I suppose the final reason is that given the nature of the game, I never feel like I can know or believe anything for certain. When I voted for Sono I did believe that he was probably innocent and that Kuru was probably guilty -- but in either case I could be wrong.

I believe in risk management: when I assess a choice like this I try to make it in terms that take into account the best possible scenario (catching a wolf) and the worst possible scenario (creating a tie and letting a wolf kill two or even three innocents).

When I cast my vote there were, to my mind, three possible wolves available: Kuru, TP and SPM. My vote had no way of catching Kuru as no-one had voted for him. (And this has been noted by me so that I am becoming less suspicious -- if I'm the only one who has my eye on him, I should perhaps look elsewhere). TP and SpM each had votes for them, but I doubt that both are werewolves given that they have been going at each other: too risky with such a close vote. So I could only choose one and hope I was right, but that would have set up a tie for a future wolf to make -- so sure, I might have picked a wolf and another wolf (or even a misguided innocent) could have come along and made a tie and a wolf might have died taking one or even two innocents with him. So the best possible scenario, in that case, was that I had a slim chance of catching a wolf, with a better than slim chance of killing more than one innocent.

The worst possible scenario was just more attractive. By casting my vote the way I did, I knew that I would probably not be getting a wolf (but then, I could have been wrong, and Sono could have been guilty), but the pay off was that I could guarantee, right then and there, that there would be no tie and no further loss of innocents.

So it was brutal, cold and perhaps unattractive logic that drove me -- it may even have been faulty -- but to answer your question: I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.

Holbytlass

06-07-2005, 09:48 AM

Um, Mormegil, you forgot me in your tally vote list. I voted for SoN also.
Not that I particularly want to draw any sort of suspicions my way, but I honestly don't want any who are suspicious of you to think we are in league together and that you are protecting me.
So, what happened?

mormegil

06-07-2005, 09:52 AM

Wow! Thank for pointing that out. I guess I just missed your vote. I thought I captured them all but I will go back and do my analysis of it a bit later. Thanks again.

Edit I think I missed you on my initial list and that's the one I worked on. I will post it in my initial list with an edit.

It's revised.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 10:04 AM

I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.

Yeah, but you also chose to make a vote that was bound to provide the least amount of information unless by dumb luck SoN happened to be a werewolf...

It is not just a matter of killing the right people. It is also a matter of killing the people that will give the most information.

Holbytlass

06-07-2005, 10:04 AM

Why do I feel like I've just been summoned to a tax audit?

Firefoot

06-07-2005, 10:10 AM

Yet she doesn’t vote for two people with suspicion cast on them and voted for an innocent because he hasn’t spoken much. Not just that he didn't post much, but how he posted, which I have stated elsewhere.Oh, and I agree with Saucy, who is probably in a much better position to know than I, that we now have four Wolves to worry about... Or the guardian got lucky and the guarded person was also the werewolves' chosen victim. There's not way for us to know (unless, of course, you're a wolf...)

Now that I've had more time to analyze some things, I would like to point out phantom's post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392087&postcount=143). While he does not specifically pin down anyone as suspicious, he states that he sees the reasoning for most people to be werewolves. He did not mention Azaelia, mormegil, or TORE (though we really don't know that much about Azaelia at all). This is especially odd due to mormegil's and phantom's contention. An alliance between the two seems extremely unlikely to me, but it struck me when phantom did not mention him at all. I'm not sure if this means something or not, but I thought I'd put it out there.

Right now my primary suspicion is on phantom. He is really confusing me; one minute I think he is completely innocent and the next I think he's a werewolf. This is what concerns me the most; it could be that he is a werewolf too good at writing convincing arguments. I don't know. My past two votes I have been reasonably sure (at the time), so phantom is really concerning me because he confuses me.

While I'm beginning to doubt SpM a little, maybe he just seems too honest to me. (So lynch me. I think he's telling the truth.) Same thing with Fordim (now. I won't deny that I did originally think he was guilty.) and (in a way) Kuru. It feels like he's a werewolf, but he sounds too honest. This could be my problem with phantom... he doesn't seem like a werewolf, but he doesn't seem honest enough. Or something.

So that's where I'm at.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 10:18 AM

I'm sorry Firefoot but the thought that the phantom and I are in league is fairly laughable. I think he didn't mention me because he was quoting other people's ideas of suspicion and there aren't many people accusing me at this time. So there was no real quote.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 10:56 AM

I have in the past few minutes developed a theory that would help explain some of the recent events. It's a bit hard to explain and I have a general inability to explain well what I think so please bear with me.

TGWBS was killed and he was most suspicious of Fordim. We debated much about the set up tactic and double cover up. I think this was an attempt for the wolves to "test the waters" to see that the double cover up defense wouldn't work i.e. Fordim killed TGWBS but we wouldn't suspect him because he wouldn't do that because it's too obvious.

I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious. Well we all think that would be stupid to kill mormegil if the phantom is a werewolf because we would all suspect him. But as I explained earlier they tested that idea with Fordim and TGWBS and it worked. Does that make any sense? They saw that they can kill those who are accusing them and not get lynched the next day. Am I accusing Fordim, no I think he was a pawn in their experiment and he played his part well, but played it unwittingly.

Why do I think that I was the prime killing suspect for the wolves? Well there are two reasons. First I have been most outspoken against them much to my own risk. Secondly, I'm not really on anybody's suspect list--at least high up. So they know there is little chance of getting me lynched so they want to eliminate the one that is pointing out their plans.

I hope that this makes some sense if it does it will validate my suspicions and I will be able to move forward with even more confidence.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 10:58 AM

I hope Morm is right and that the Guardian saved someone last night.

Get ready everyone- I'm in the process of typing up a long post that points out two wolves (I hope).

(don't worry Morm, you're not one of them)

Holbytlass

06-07-2005, 11:08 AM

It is not just a matter of killing the right people. It is also a matter of killing the people that will give the most information.
Maybe Fordim's short list might come in handy....
The 2 main suspects are Phantom and Saucepan Man. Some are suspicous of one or the other and some are suspicious of both. Are there any who do not suspect either?
With Mormegil's analisys(sp?), many who claimed to be suspicious of one or both still did not vote for either for various reasons (myself included).
So this 'short-list' all can see a better view of where people stand and even with a tie, both sides maybe be appeased. I dare say, that these two might be relieved? They can answer themselves. I say this because they both seem very tired. Tired from late night killings or tired from constant suspicions when only their deaths would prove their innocents.
I am not trying to speak about their state of minds but what I perceive them to be. Also, in a way, help the village glean more info.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 11:15 AM

It is time.

What time, you ask?

Time for a famous Phantom Theory.

The last one I had was a stretch (I readily admitted it), but this one may be more to the village's liking.

Estel and Saucy are working together! They are wolves!

Estel defended Saucy-
I think that this can surely be written off as jest-Kuru and Phantom have hardly been trustworthy figures in two past occasions (that I can’t name more fully because past villages aren’t supposed to be referenced ). A hard look at the beginning can really be no more than jest in my opinion.
Estel agreed with Saucy-
As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.
Saucy agreed with Estel-
Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this
Also, Saucy used this argument several times in order to make Estel look innocent-
The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour.
My response to that- why would a wolf favor a double lynching? If you recall, we wolves in the last town (Spawn, Nim, and I) had a double lynching handed to us but we refused to take it. Why? Because it is better to keep a likely-to-get-lynched person alive for one more day to lynch them then because it gives you an extra night to kill.

In other words, if there are three people that you think people would lynch, you would want to lynch them on three seperate days so you would get to make three kills at night following the lynchings. If you lynch two on one day it removes one of your free killing nights. If you lynch three then you only get one single night to kill.

It is wise for wolves to keep suspicious folk around as long as possible giving them as many nights as possible to kill the more innocent looking ones. Does everyone understand what I am saying? As a former wolf I know what I am talking about.

If you are understanding me, you will know that Saucy's defense of Estel based on the lack of a double lynching does not work.

Saucy said this-
But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).
Here, Saucy uses the argument again. He is basically saying "Phantom, I think you are innocent, and if you are then so is Estel."

It sounds to me like he's trying to get on my good side by pointing out my innocence (he knows I am since he's a wolf), and at the same time he's trying to move Estel firmly off my radar based on my own innocence. Very very clever. This is something that I would do if I was a wolf.

And what about Estel's Saucy-phantom-SoN theory? He included Saucy on there in case Saucy got lynched (it would make Estel look innocent). But he purposefully grouped Saucy with SoN and I since it was possible that either SoN or I would be lynched. You see, he tied two people who he knew to be innocent to Saucy so that when SoN or I got lynched and proven innocent it would make Saucy look innocent, too. Very clever. That is exactly what I would do if I was a wolf.

In addition, Estel continues to "suspect" Saucy all the way until the end of the day, but votes for SoN instead. Is this pattern going to continue- always suspecting Saucy but never actually voting for him?

Yes. He's just trying to seperate himself from Saucy.

Saucy took a little stab at Estel-
And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.
This is just to seperate himself from Estel, just as Estel has tried to seperate himself from Saucy-
If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.
Also, look at the opinions of those who have died.

SoN was suspicious of Estel-
I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right.
SoN was suspicious of Saucy too-
A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves
Not that SoN's suspicions were concrete- I'm just showing that there was another innocent who suspected them besides myself.

TGWBS pointed an early finger at Saucy, and he's dead now-
Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. Verily, I enjoy jokes as much as the next man, but this seems incredibly out of place when one fifteenth of the hamlet has just been viciously slaughtered. He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation.
There! I've made my case for Saucy and Estel!

Read my case over again if you have to. I truly believe that this is the most solid case out there right now.

I think I have a good chance of being right- but if I'm not, forgive me and pat me on the back for trying.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 12:30 PM

Oh, and Morm- you were demanding explanations from people who voted for SoN?

Here's mine. It's quite simple.

I voted the last possible moment I possibly could before leaving the house. When I voted, the count was-

SPM- 2
SoN- 2
TP- 2

I was on the chopping block, so I felt the need to vote for one of the other vote leaders. SoN and SPM were my choices. I wanted to go with SPM, but after he suspected me but then went for SoN instead, I decided to do him the same favor. It wasn't as if I didn't suspect SoN, anyway. And also, I figured that if SPM was actually the wolf of the two, he might be reluctant to kill me after I had plainly expressed my suspicions of him. In addition, it appears that I am extremely suspicious to people (I've received three votes both days), so no way would the wolves kill me during the night.

You see, since I was fairly confident I'd be around the next day to make my case, I didn't see the harm in voting for one of my suspects over another.

You can call that logic "pathetic" or "laughable" if you wish, but it seems rather straight forward to me.

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-07-2005, 12:50 PM

I think I have a good chance of being right- but if I'm not, forgive me and pat me on the back for trying.

*pat pat*

You do make a good argument there Phantom, I must admit. But it cuts both ways. You are pretty obviously responding to my short list and trying your darnedest not to acknowedge that you are doing this. All three of you are under suspicion for voting for innocents; all three of you are under suspicion for making confusing arguments, changing your tactics and being generally evasive. And there you are pointing the finger at the other two -- like the kid who's been caught in the Adult's Only section of the videohut who points at his two friends and cries out, "It was them!"

Your own brilliant theory implodes upon itself: the one thing you come back to again and again is that SpM and Estel accuse each other of being werewolves, but that they never vote for one another -- and yet here you are, accusing them without ever having voted for either of them.

Sauce for the goose, sauce for the gander...

As to your explanations for why you "had" to vote for Evisse and Sono: you voted for them in order to break a tie with yourself. Fair enough, but you are constantly calling attention to the one vote that you cast for someone else, perhaps hoping we will ignore:

a) that you had a significant number of votes against you in the first place, thus putting you into this "bind", and

b) that two of our only three proven innocents cast votes against you (Sono and Evisse).

As a matter of fact, of all the votes cast to this point, you have received (combined) more than anyone else: 6.

Sono and Evisse, both of whom you voted for, had only 5 each. The next most 'popular' vote getter is Saucy with 3. You are clearly garnering a lot of suspicion, and while I would not want to suggest that this is a popularity contest, you might want to work a bit more at looking and acting less suspicious yourself rather than trying to get us to lynch your "co-accused"...

Sadly, RL will keep me away from my computer until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. I may be able to peek in and read from time to time but I will not have any chance to post at length. I was tempted to cast my vote now, but I shall hold off for the time being and try to keep up with the reading. At some point tonight, however, I shall probably have to post a very brief message, probably no more than a word...a word in boldface, preceded by a couple of plus signs.

Firefoot

06-07-2005, 01:20 PM

My thoughts are along the same lines as Fordim's (though he stated it more eloquently than I could). As convincing as your argument is, phantom, it also has strong airs of a cornered animal. You have been under a great deal of suspicion, and it seems like you are pulling off a very convincing "Not me! Them!" I am more convinced of your guilt than SpM's or TORE's, and you just made it more so.

I don't really have a lot to add; basically "what Fordim said."

the phantom

06-07-2005, 01:25 PM

You are pretty obviously responding to my short list and trying your darnedest not to acknowedge that you are doing this.
Though I don't blame you since you had no way of knowing, you are absolutely 100% wrong. I had most of my accusation post written before you even posted your list today.

I was working on my Saucy-Estel theory before the day was over yesterday. This morning all I had to do was tidy it up a bit.
and yet here you are, accusing them without ever having voted for either of them
The first day I didn't have any chance whatsoever to vote for them. Yesterday I had a chance to vote for Saucy, but I explained why I didn't in my last post.

Today, however, even if the votes are going against me I am going to vote for either Saucy or Estel. I'll give them both a chance to defend themselves and see if one of them turns on the other, but one of them is getting my vote no matter what.
that two of our only three proven innocents cast votes against you
So what? It means nothing. Their votes were no better informed than mine. Only one was a seer, and she hadn't had a single dream. They knew nothing, and you are smart enough to know that Fordim.

And the two that did vote for me were lynched by the village, not murdered in the night by wolves.

Plus, it's not as if I led the charge against them either. I simply went with the flow to save my skin. You can't deny that.
you had a significant number of votes against you in the first place
Yes, and votes can only come from two sources-
1) Villagers, who obviously have no concrete knowledge.
2) Werewolves, who obviously want villagers dead.

As you can see, the fact that people have been voting for me proves absolutely nothing, Fordim. And once again, you are smart enough to know that.

If you keep trying to paint me as a bad guy using completely useless information I will start to wonder if you are the third wolf.

Considering that I have accused two of the three people you claim to suspect, I'm surprised you are protesting. Perhaps the only person off your list you wanted to see lynched today was me, and then when the village found me to be innocent you were going to excuse Saucy and Estel, your werewolf brethren.

Also, maybe whoever noted the link between Firefoot and Saucy was correct, seeing as Firefoot just agreed with Fordim's completely weightless post. Perhaps Estel is in the clear, and Fordim, Saucy, and Firefoot are the wolves.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 03:22 PM

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 03:46 PM

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

Oh, I suspect that RL probably has something to do with it too. (Some of us actually have lives outside of cyberspace, can you believe it??!! :eek: )

However, there is a simple question I'd like to put before the village (such as it is). Is there anybody here who does not strongly suspect The Saucepan Man? If there isn't, why are we even bothering with this palaver? If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it? I think that it would be, at the very least, informative.

I think one of the problems the village has been having is they are making this harder than it has to be. Look at the evidence and then make the choice the evidence points toward. And don't wimp out when the time comes and vote for somebody just because it is not a difficult choice or "might be wrong." (coughlikeyesterdaycough) Whatever we do might be wrong. There is no certainty until the end.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 04:17 PM

However, there is a simple question I'd like to put before the village (such as it is). Is there anybody here who does not strongly suspect The Saucepan Man? If there isn't, why are we even bothering with this palaver? If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it? I think that it would be, at the very least, informative.
I agree.

If you go by what people have said and who they have voted for and hold them to it then Kuru, Estel, Fordim, Holby, Shelob, and I should all be willing to cast a vote for SPM, and I may even be forgetting someone. Even if I'm not, that's still the necessary number of votes (six).

Shelob

06-07-2005, 04:51 PM

I am willing Phantom...but as it stands now I fear leaving you untouched...

Your SPM/TORE theory still seems too much like an attempt to divert attention from yourself for me to feel comfortable...I understand your reasoning behind it, I even to an extent agree...but it's timing worries me... add to that the fact that you have so closely avoided a hanging not once but twice and it makes me suspect you may be getting desperate to be further from the noose this time round...

But then Saucepan Man has led the arguments against both now proven innocents (though my vote was, admittedly, the first against Evisse)...and he remains a suspicious character regardless of whatever leeways and concessions people make...

...But then it may be neither of you is a werewolf...Either of you, Both of you, Neither of you...It's enough to make one's head ache...

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

Hold on. Kuru, if you're so confident in your plan why didn't you just vote? (Perhaps I shouldn't read it that you're confident...but that's how it seems to me)...and why do you say "If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it?" in relation to Saucepan Man?...the two are very close but it seems to me that Phantom is slightly higher today in the town's rough "consensus" than is Saucepan Man...perhaps I'm wrong here but since I've not the time to check I'll trust you all shall either check for me or grant me time to eat before expecting me to check myself...

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 05:01 PM

RL is an evil thing. It has kept me away from the thread since 7 am (when nothing had happened yet), & it will keep me from doing anything but catching up on what has been said until later. Later I will post my explanation for voting for Son, repost my explanation for voting for Evesse (given the SpM called them both into question recently), & reply to phantom's theory of SpM & I (it is refreshing to see someone come up with a well thought-out theory and actually trying to back it up with quotes, as phantom as done here - no matter how misguided it is it shows he is not just pulling things out of his...uh, brain :p).

Until later,
Estel

Shelob

06-07-2005, 05:43 PM

Alright...as I was going on what I recalled since I didn't really have time before supper to go back and read I was wrong in my assumption...

...giving them each a point when someone listed them as suspicous (so person A says "I suspect SpM" it counts as a point against Saucepan Man, person A then says "but I also suspect Phantom" it counts as a point against Phantom, if person A then says later "I still suspect Phantom" phantom doesn't get another point...)

anyway to continue...as the points stand that way (and admittedly it's not a very accurate way...) it's Saucepan Man: 4.5, Phantom 4 (Kuru hinted at SpM in post 175, but since he never named names I counted it only as a half a point)

I'm not sure how to read Holby's post (190)...it says simply that the most suspicion is on those two and actually seems to suggest an idea similar to Kuru's...worst comes to worst it boosts the points up to 5.5 and 5 accordingly...

Also while scanning for something I noticed that Kuru voted for Saucepan Man yesterday, having missed that earlier it seems more likely that you, Kuru, used Saucepan Man here simply as a continuation of your previous suspicions...

Since I have less homework than I expected I'll be on somewhat regularly this evening...and since TORE promises explanations I would rather wait to vote than vote hastily now...

Azaelia of Willowbottom

06-07-2005, 05:56 PM

Well, well... This is an interesting situation! No one dead, and fingers pointing in all directions.

I'm going to wait a while longer before making up my mind who to vote for. There is a lot of interesting evidence against several different people.

Myself, I'm still inclined to be suspicious of Phantom , though he did bring up some points against others that I have to consider in order to make my vote. I do think, however, that his theory, while backed up by a lot of evidence, still seems like it could be an attempt to draw attention away from himself...It could easily mask guilt. Seeing as how you came quite close to being lynched last time, diversionary tactics are very possible.

It may be true, it may not. I have no idea.

I don't really know where to look first, there's so much going on...so I will wait a while before voting. I would hate to send another innocent to his or her death...at this point, there is a lot of stuff I need to weigh.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 06:00 PM

Read this post, and read it carefully, and tell me if you honestly suspect me.
you have so closely avoided a hanging not once but twice
As I told Fordim, the fact that I've nearly been lynched before means absolutely nothing, since votes can only come from two sources- villagers who know nothing and werewolves who want to kill innocents.
it makes me suspect you may be getting desperate to be further from the noose this time round...
WHAT?!

You "suspect" that I don't want to get hung???

Duh!

OF COURSE I'm trying to get OUT of the NOOSE!!!

NOBODY wants to be in the noose!!!

It's one of the primary POINTS of the GAME!!!

How could you possibly point this out as being something that makes me look suspicious?!
Your SPM/TORE theory still seems too much like an attempt to divert attention from yourself
still seems like it could be an attempt to draw attention away from himself
Since when does an INNOCENT VILLAGER not want to turn attention away from himself and towards possible WEREWOLVES???
I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..
For today, I would like you to vote for someone who at least might be a werewolf.

Then, if you still feel like lynching a complete innocent, you can vote for me tomorrow.
but it seems to me that Phantom is slightly higher today in the town's rough "consensus" than is Saucepan Man
Yes, even after I've blown holes through the reasons why they suspect me.

Perhaps a large portion of the vocal townspeople are wolves? Ever think of that?

Now I'm going to hold a conversation between myself and my accusers to point out how flimsy the reasoning is behind my guilt....

"Phantom, you're trying to get our attention off of you."

Um, yeah. So what? That doesn't mean anything. Isn't an innocent supposed to avoid getting lynched and try to lynch wolves?

"Phantom, people have voted for you the past two rounds."

Um, yeah. So what? Any innocent casting a vote has no definite knowledge, and if it was wolves trying to lynch me then that would support my innocence.

"Phantom, two people who are dead voted for you.

Um, yeah. So what? Did they know anything? No. Did I lead the charge to lynch them? No. Were either of them killed in the night? No.

I mean- COME ON, PEOPLE!!!

Does anyone actually have a REASON to suspect me???

A REAL reason???

Azaelia of Willowbottom

06-07-2005, 06:08 PM

I didn't say my suspicion of you was definite, Phantom. I said: It may be true, it may not. I have no idea.

I am still thinking. I still do not know for sure.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 06:09 PM

It has been about two hours and no one has posted.

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

I hope that is the reason for the silence.

I can tell you my reason for not posting is that a preacher may grow weary of preaching when his advice is not heeded. I admit I am not nearly as eloquent as many others in our village but that doesn't make my points and theories less valid, just more difficult to understand ;) .

I know that the phantom would have us believe otherwise but I find it rather telling that both known innocents voted for you. Why I think this means something is that we know that they had no hidden agenda or weren't in cahoots with the wolves, so they truly suspected you. I suggest all other true innocents look at that and think that there must be a reason that they suspected him. Unless there is some major compelling evidence otherwise I think I will be voting for the phantom (again) tonight. I find SpM suspicious but just not as suspicious as I do the phantom.

He has voted for both innocents and both voted for him.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 06:17 PM

we know that they had no hidden agenda or weren't in cahoots with the wolves, so they truly suspected you
I have no doubt they did.

And I also have no doubt that, since they had zero concrete knowledge, they were both taking a shot in the dark. And I would add that it was mostly their blind selection of me that forced me to vote for them.

No matter how much you would like to believe it, the vote of a villager with no definite knowledge carries absolutely no weight in determining guilt. Can you honestly not see this?

If I get lynched today and proven innocent, but before I die I cast my vote for you- would that suddenly make you more suspicious than you are? Would it change anything?

No, because I don't have a clue who the wolf is, therefore my vote should not carry much weight.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 06:19 PM

sorry for the double post but I didn't see phantom's and azaleia's post yet.

the phantom just said.
Um, yeah. So what? Did they know anything? No. Did I lead the charge to lynch them? No. Were either of them killed in the night? No.

I mean- COME ON, PEOPLE!!!

I think the fact that you didn't lead the charge is very suspicious. Why would a wolf make a common habit of spearheading that? It's more likely for them to be the second or third voice, though I don't eliminate the possiblity of a wolf leading the charge. I think that by your own admission of that you appear more culpable.

Firefoot

06-07-2005, 06:21 PM

Phantom, (for me at least), it's not so much that you are trying to escape the noose as how you are trying to do it. You are doing two things: getting very defensive and launching heavy duty attacks. It feels desperate (granted, you could be a desperate innocent. No one but the wolves know for sure). But, in-those-games-that-must-not-be-named, when I was a wolf and mormegil started firing heavy-duty attacks on me, I was pulling every evasive and attacking maneouver I could logically find to get the blame off of me (ah, it didn't work. Obviously). When I read your posts, it feels very similar in tone to what I wrote in that first game. I'm drawing from my own experiences (wrongly, perhaps), and this is what I get out of it.

The other problem I have had is that I have hitherto not felt a lot of suspicion towards either SpM or TORE or, in the past two days, Fordim. I realize that SpM has led the charge in the voting of Evisse and SoN, but to me it feels like an honest mistake, maybe because I was making the same ones, even if I didn't actually vote for Evisse. Again, I'm drawing from my own experiences.

The other thing is that you have been careful to distance yourself off from other players; I have some thoughts but no clear idea on who you might be a wolf with. This seems to me to be a good plan for the wolves, since then if one of you goes down, then the rest of you wouldn't. Whereas, if you were to vote for SpM and he was to be a wolf, there would not be much trouble in picking out companions. I have no doubt that accusations would fly in my direction, as well as Fordim's and maybe TORE's, based on your latest post. This does not seem to be a very good werewolf strategy to me.

So that's why I'm suspicious of you, phantom. I don't know if this qualifies for a REAL reason or not, but there it is: my own combination of instinct and reasoning.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 06:30 PM

Hold on. Kuru, if you're so confident in your plan why didn't you just vote?

It is called being consistant. As I'm sure you have noticed from other places I'm opposed to hasty voting as a matter of principle.

Also while scanning for something I noticed that Kuru voted for Saucepan Man yesterday, having missed that earlier it seems more likely that you, Kuru, used Saucepan Man here simply as a continuation of your previous suspicions

Yes, that is correct. I think Saucepan Man is a werewolf.

I am rather hungry at the moment and want to go eat dinner, so I'm going to save my BIG GRAND THEORY until I return. However, before I go I want to restate my question.

Is there anyone here who is not seriously suspicious of Saucepan Man? The Phantom may be a werewolf, I don't know. But if most people are suspicious of Saucepan, shouldn't we put that theory to the test? If Saucepan proves to be a wolf then we can spend the rest of the time bickering over who to hang next (and that discussion would include the phantom).

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 06:34 PM

when I was a wolf and mormegil started firing heavy-duty attacks on me
Morm was a seer in that game. No one who is accusing me is a seer. Morm knew you were a wolf. No one knows if I am.

Just thought I'd point that out.
The other thing is that you have been careful to distance yourself off from other players
Um, I don't get it. You are suspecting me because I haven't buddied up?

Considering that villagers know nothing, why would ANY innocent villager NOT distance himself from everyone?

A villager has no way of knowing who is a wolf, so why in the world would he buddy up with someone?

And plus, why would a wolf distance himself from everyone? A wolf wouldn't be at all concerned if he got buddied up with an innocent. That would be a perfect position for a wolf.

Your claim makes no logical sense.

Once again, someone has pointed out something that is just a fact of the game and somehow tried to make me look guilty.

Once again, I have showed that the reasoning behind their suspicion is meaningless.

This is getting tiresome.

Oddwen

06-07-2005, 06:42 PM

Are we fortunate that none died or unfortunate? If we are unfortunate, the number of wolves has increased, but if fortunate the guardian knows one person who is innocent.

And what's this - the Phantom throwing a temper tantrum? We're either very close or very obtuse. :p

I'll have more in a few hours.

Shelob

06-07-2005, 06:43 PM

WHAT?!

You "suspect" that I don't want to get hung???

Actually I suspected that you were getting desperate... and I'm gathering that I should be speaking in bullet points, it would cause less confusion...

>Phantom I understand your points.
>However, I still don't believe you enough to say "Oh, well given that The Phantom must be innocent."
>Your point about the votes against you:
"Um, yeah. So what? Any innocent casting a vote has no definite knowledge, and if it was wolves trying to lynch me then that would support my innocence."

what about looking at it like this (and for this I'm assuming that you're telling the truth...since this is for your benefit and you're clearly not going to say anything different)

--you tell us that you're innocent and that therefore the majority of votes against you have been cast by werewolves.
--we lynch you.
--your statement is proved true and you're innocent
--all our sights would be turned on those who voted for you, esp. if they voted for you twice
--The werewolves then wouldn't be able to kill anyone who voted for you because those people would either be werewolves themselves or the werewolves only defense against the gallows
--The next day the werewolves would be really nervous because they would have to divert attention away from their member(s) who voted for you and turn the general opinion against an innocent

>doesn't it follow that one at least of them would slip up somewhere, and that we would finally be able to get a werewolf

>I'm not saying "Oh let's Kill Phantom because of this one possibility"...
>However if you are so sure of your innocence your death could potentially lead us to a werewolf...(so your being lynched would have been a greater help to our villager than your protesting vehemently)
>And if you're a werewolf then we've evened the odds...(and you, knowing this, would try to avoid being lynched)

>well?

Firefoot

06-07-2005, 06:46 PM

Your claim makes no logical sense. I figured you would say that. You asked why, and I told you why; I'm not asking you or anyone else to agree with me. I get the feeling that you are (deliberately or not) missing my point, but that may have been some error on my part. It makes sense in my head, but I have difficulty putting it down on the screen so that it makes sense. (And don't say that that is because it doesn't. I know what makes sense to me. :cool: :rolleyes: ) I stated my opinion, and it stands, at least for now. I'm sorry if you think my suspicions are meaningless and without reason. In fact, I expected you to think so. I'm sorry if you're tired of this. But it's how I feel, and you asked first.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 06:58 PM

Nice, Shelob. It's nice to see someone doing some real thinking about my guilt/innocence and possible lynching.

There is a big danger in your plan, though. What if no wolves have voted for me thus far? It's easily possible.

So if you lynch me, find out I'm innocent, and then lynch those who voted for me, you'll just be lynching more innocents.

Everyone, listen up. If I get lynched today, DO NOT assume that the people who voted for me before are the wolves. They might be, but maybe not.
I get the feeling that you are (deliberately or not) missing my point
No, how could I miss your point? You stated it plainly. You said that the fact that I am completely by myself an unattached makes me likely to be a wolf.

I responded by pointing out that a villager has much more of a reason to be unattached.

My point is easy to understand and logically sound, so I'm not sure why your opinion hasn't changed.

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 07:17 PM

The Evisse vote first.

Originally posted my 'TORE' (me):
My gut feeling was most certainly not Evisse, I was going to vote for the phantom, but allowed my head to talk me out of it until it was to late & I found myself forced to vote for Evisse because the vote count was 4 for Evisse and 3 for phantom. Obviously that problem with this vote count is that any werewolf could swoop in at the last second & lynch two villagers – this I obviously could not be responsible for letting happen. After waiting to see if I could catch a wolf trying to tie the vote, I then cast my vote at the last possible second for Evisse.

I've obviously posted this before, now I post it again. While I realize it would've been risky for a wolf to go for the double-lynching angle, I can think of a few people at least that I think have the wits to pull it off and come out of it looking innocent.

Now for the SoN vote.

Originally posted for Fordim:
And I would point out that TP and SpM had both voted for Sono before I, which is what caused the potential two or even three-way tie crisis, and that TORE waited until the last 15 minutes to vote after me

If my obvious suspicions are correct, then I may have prevented TORE from tying things yesterday

Yes Fordim, you did prevent me from tying things yesterday. I had hoped for a double lynching. Yes, I said that right. And yes, I am going to get some strange looks for admitting this, but here my reasoning. I was 90% sure of both SoN's & SpM's guilt, so I saw a great opportunity to lynch two wolves with one noose, especially since we are beginning to run out of time. I was hoping that Fordim would vote for Sauce and I could then tie it, but when he didn't, I saw there was little reason for me to hold my vote any longer. Now I'm not sure if I should be grateful for Fordim preventing this or not. SoN was hung anyway, so we killed an innocent. I was under the impression that SpM would probably go the next round no matter what. Therefore, if Sauce turns up wolfy, we could've saved a rounds worth of deliberations & hung a wolf along with the innocent. If Sauce & SoN both turned out to be innocent (which I find unlikely), then we at least would still have one more round's time left to work with - since an 'innocent' Saucey would most likely have gone this round anyway. But if they both would've been innocent I would've been violentyly shocked by electrical currents of suprise.

Originally posted by morm:
TORE seems to take sadistic pleasure out of being the last vote. Like Fordim he wants to make his vote count. As I don’t’ understand this philosophy of only voting those who are likely to die, there is great suspicion on you but not as much as the other four

The reason why I voted for one that was likely to die this time is because he was high on my suspect list anyway. The reason I voted for Evisse was to make sure two presumed innocents wouldn't both be hung (however unrealistic you might think it to be that the wolves would try such a bold plan).

I hope this clears up my reasoning for voting late in each of the first two rounds.

p.s. more to come soon...

Azaelia of Willowbottom

06-07-2005, 07:38 PM

I've waited as late as possible to vote. I feel bad about having to go first, again, but my time zone is such that I will not get home from school until after the "DAY" is done.

So. My vote goes to ++Phantom again. Because I think he is acting the most guilty of anyone else here at the moment...

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 07:39 PM

Now it's time to answer tp's lengthy post about Sauce & I being in league together. (all quotes will be coming from tp unless posted otherwise)

Estel defended Saucy-
I think that this can surely be written off as jest-Kuru and Phantom have hardly been trustworthy figures in two past occasions (that I can’t name more fully because past villages aren’t supposed to be referenced ). A hard look at the beginning can really be no more than jest in my opinion.

Of course I defended him, I laughed at it because I was under the impression that it was a joke & shouldn't be used as evidence against him (especially not in that stage of the game!).

Estel agreed with Saucy-
As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory

Because it sounded like the best one out there - remember this is still at an early stage.

Saucy agreed with Estel-
Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

Because what I said was true. We were both talking about you - does that mean that all three of us are wolves? :confused:

Also, Saucy used this argument several times in order to make Estel look innocent-
The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour.

My response to that- why would a wolf favor a double lynching? If you recall, we wolves in the last town (Spawn, Nim, and I) had a double lynching handed to us but we refused to take it. Why? Because it is better to keep a likely-to-get-lynched person alive for one more day to lynch them then because it gives you an extra night to kill.

Although I appreciated the defense I also saw that it might be a bit of a stretch - it would take a bold wolf to try such a plan. Still, that could be used later by the wolf as evidence that he tried the duece in good faith, you never know.
Funny you mention this quote, though, because I thought it a bit of a stretch & already suspected both you, phantom & Saucey; and wondered if SpM was trying to set me up so that if you ever got lynched (and turned up a wolf), he could pull this quote out & lead a mob towards me. This way he could at least get one innocent villager out of losing his partner.

And what about Estel's Saucy-phantom-SoN theory? He included Saucy on there in case Saucy got lynched (it would make Estel look innocent). But he purposefully grouped Saucy with SoN and I since it was possible that either SoN or I would be lynched. You see, he tied two people who he knew to be innocent to Saucy so that when SoN or I got lynched and proven innocent it would make Saucy look innocent, too. Very clever. That is exactly what I would do if I was a wolf

Interesting theory. But it doesn't have much evidence behind it. You could take almost any unsuspecting villager and weave him or her in a web such as this.

In addition, Estel continues to "suspect" Saucy all the way until the end of the day, but votes for SoN instead. Is this pattern going to continue- always suspecting Saucy but never actually voting for him?

Because SoN had the majority of the votes, Sauce was not going anyway, &, most importantly, I suspected SoN as much as I did Saucey (hmm, I've had to post something like this at least three times by now, I think). Unless I hear a whole lot of evidence to Sauce's innocence (and I doubt I'll hear anything to change my mind), I will be voting for Sauce tonight. Or will you say that my vote is just to seperate us as well?

Also, look at the opinions of those who have died
SoN was suspicious of Estel-
I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right.
SoN was suspicious of Saucy too-
A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves

SoN based his day one accusation on a gut feeling, as far as I know he never mentioned me again, seemingly backing off his original vote. Hmm, SoN suspected Sauce & Fordim, so that must mean that Sauce & Estel are working together! I see you're logic...no wait, I don't. :confused: Btw, SoN was suspicious of phantom also, here it is in his own words:

Originally posted by SoN:
I suppose my fate is sealed, but I still suspect ++the phantom more than I do myself.

Suspecting phantom more than he does himself is not saying much, that would go for everybody. Voting for phantom is saying something, especially if you're using votes as concretly as tp has tried to do with SoN's 'no evidence, but a gut feeling' vote of me.

There! I've made my case for Saucy and Estel!

Yes, and you've also heightened my suspicions of you.

I am glad to see that you are making an effort to back up your theory by using quotes, etc.; but they are tied together by so flimsy a string that it looks like an escape plan to me.

edit: coming later (aroudn 9:30 central time? A defense of phantom..from me!? Also, I hope to vote...

Fordim Hedgethistle

06-07-2005, 07:42 PM

This will be my absolute last chance to put up anything of substance before the deadline tomorrow. I won't vote yet as it takes but a minute to do that, but I did have just one more thing to add to this growing mix...

It sure looks to me at the moment that we are in a two horse race with SpM and TP as our prime candidates for lynching. I've already outlined my reasons for suspecting both so shan't go into those again here. I will be checking in on the debate until tomorrow morning, but at this point my vote is going to be for The Phantom (BUT THAT'S NOT MY OFFICIAL VOTE! I want to see what happens when the voting actually begins) -- not because I am more convinced of his guilt than I am of Saucy's but because even if he is innocent, TP is doing more to hinder the villagers than help us.

Put bluntly, TP is either a wolf or an innocent who is helping the wolves by distracting our attention with his own suspicious behaviour, and slinging enough mud around to fill a horse paddock. While it would be ideal for us to kill a wolf, there's always the chance that we might kill an innocent -- so by lynching the Phantom we can at least minimise the damage by ridding ourselves of the distraction.

And here's the really brutal part: the Phantom has floated a lot of opinions and put forward a lot of theories -- they may be good or they may not. The problem is, I can't really assess them because I don't know if I can trust him. So even if he isn't a wolf, lynching him will tell me that he's an innocent and I can assess his posts more usefully.

Please do not misunderstand me: I am not saying that I don't care if he is a wolf or not, nor am I suggesting that killing an innocent can be beneficial to us in any way. I'm only saying that the damage to us is minimised if we kill an innocent Phantom rather than an innocent Spm.

Some highly theoretical math:

Given that I believe (and I think many others do too) that there is a roughly equal chance of either TP or SPM being a wolf:

Lynching TP brings the potential benefit of killing a wolf which decreases their numbers by 1.

Lynching SpM brings the exact same potential benefit: one less wolf. Given the equivalent value of 1 they cancel each other out: there's no difference between the two.

Lynching TP brings the potential danger of killing an innocent which decreases our numbers by 1. Again the same danger comes with Spm -- so still, no difference.

But then we come to the more intangibles. Killing an innocent TP brings the benefit of removing his confusing posts from the mix, and clarifying the real status of his posts to date. Killing an innocent SpM carries no equivalent benefit.

So it's close, but it seems to me the logical choice to vote for The Phantom: the only reason I won't do so right now is that my line of reasoning begins with and depends upon the idea that there is an equivalent chance that TP and SPM are wolves: I want to wait and make sure that this does not change in the next few hours.

To Bed!

Shelob

06-07-2005, 07:50 PM

"There is a big danger in your plan, though. What if no wolves have voted for me thus far? It's easily possible."

True...but if you're jotting down ideas every chance your parents leave the room 'cause you're supposed to be cleaning then you're bound to miss something...

...If no wolves voted for you...hmmm...

Off the top of my head I would say that we should look then not only at those who voted for you but also at those who were most vocal about your guilt...it widens the field slightly which gives the werewolves more free range...but it also makes it more likely that there's a werewolf/some werewovles in the group... It would be a gamble but then that whole idea is a gamble...

...allright...for about an hour I'm doing homework...I might check here but I'll have no time to post...after that I'll likely be back on to respond to ideas...since This day started at 10am for me I would prefer to hold my vote until the morning but depending on how things go I may vote before going to bed...Just in case you wonder why I've vanished.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 08:09 PM

This is a bit of speculation on my part but it's a thought that occured to me that I wanted to present. There is a possibility that if the phantom is a wolf that SpM could still be one and vice versa. They both know that they are at the top of about everybody's list, so it would seem logical that they would disassociate themselves and even attack each other. Though we haven't heard yet from SpM on much today. See how that works. They talk and formulate the plan for this day that at least the phantom will attack SpM because they are going to be lynched. Therefore when we kill one the other would be exonerated. There's obviously no guarantee that I'm correct but it's food for thought.

TORE sorry this is backed up by any quotes but at least entertain the idea.

Fordim I like the thinking about why to lynch the phantom before SpM and I believe there is merit in it.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 08:13 PM

I'm working on my post. It is just taking me awhile because I've got a lot of ground to cover.

I'd like to ask that (seeing as how I'm one of the few voices attempting to speak in favor of another idea than the currently popular one) the deluge of voting not start until I have a chance to finish.

I'd also like to note that nobody has really gone to the bother to answer my question yet.

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 08:19 PM

Suprisingly, I find myself doing this, after calming down a bit.
First off, this is not at all a total vote of confidence in phantom! But I do have something I feel is important for you guys to think about.

I'll admit that my suspicions of tp have been heightened to the point that I was considering voting for him tonight. Then I remembered The Saucepan Man. Sauce has posted only once today (that I saw right off hand), & seems to be flying somewhat under the radar. I am still very suspicious of Sauce, & I realized that although I have been keeping an eye on the phantom almost the whole time; perhaps the reason why I am now more suspicious of him is because I know that he has posted accusing an innocent (me). Before I could never know for sure, of course.

I didn't find any real evidence in his SpM/Estel claim, so that made me suspect, added to the fact that I already know his theory to be false. But the fact remains that he may have simply been trying to make something out of a mess that has been our village. I saw no real evidence, but it is hard to come by concrete evidence, after all. I know his theory to be wrong, but I myself posted a very well thought-out theory (or so I thought) of my own that included the late SoN. Obivously I would like to think one can make an honest mistake. Another thing is this: Although I have heard the phrase "you can always tell who is at fault by who denies his guilt most vehemently," I am not sure that it quite applies here. Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous. I wouldn't say that I 'got mad,' but you can probably detect an edge in my voice at times when I replied to phantom's theory involving me.

Besides, there's just something about his posts that doesn't seem to add up. If he were a wolf I would expect him to be more subtle when faced with accusations. His tone of late seems to be one of desperation, as if he can see the village's votes are beginning to be directed towards another innocent (him) & he has to save us from ourselves. Of course it might just be that he is desperate to not be hung so that we'll hang another innocent again instead of his wolfish self, but I'm not sure that this is the case.

This is not at all a total vote of confidence in phantom!

I said it to start, & I'll say it to finish. But I would like to see the phantom live another day, what happens if he does, I cannot guarantee. I think The Saucepan Man is the one to go.

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 08:23 PM

Sorry to double-post but since the first was meant to be soley a potential defense of the phantom's behavior I think this will be allowed. :)

Originally posted by morm:
There is a possibility that if the phantom is a wolf that SpM could still be one and vice versa. They both know that they are at the top of about everybody's list, so it would seem logical that they would disassociate themselves and even attack each other.

Of course there is! Although Fordim did say a long, long time ago (forgive me for not having the exact quote ;)) that "votes are the only real evidence," votes can very easily be manipulated by wolves. If you have any doubts, just revist phantom's 'random thoughts' page on the happenings in the last village.

Originally posted by morm:

TORE sorry this is backed up by any quotes but at least entertain the idea

Of course I will (as you saw above). I hardly expect everyone to always go back & grab the quotes, but if your'e going to go to the work of formulating a long theory like phantom did than quotes help to give it at least some credence.

The Saucepan Man

06-07-2005, 08:24 PM

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.Well, I have had things to do. But the timing was good. I did, and still do, intend to lay low, just as I stated that I would at the outset of today's proceedings. But that's not because I am trying to make people forget about me. I knew after the outcome of yesterday's vote that I would be very much in the frame for today's lynching, and I doubted that anything which I might or might not say would change that. That remains the case (as is clear from what people have been saying). I am also nervous of accusing anyone now, since my previous attempts to find a Werewolf have gone seriously awry. It is dreadfully important that a Werewolf gets hung today and, right now, I am very much afraid of accusing yet another innocent.

Should I attempt to defend myself? Well, I am damned if I do and damned if I don't. If I do, it will be construed as a desperate attempt to save my neck from the noose. If I don't, it will be seen as an attempt to appear honest and genuine. Either way, wolfish motives will be ascribed.

But I will say this. Consider the evidence against me. I was instrumental in the hanging of two innocents. That's pretty strong evidence, isn’t it? Except when you consider (as has been said many times today) that we were all (with three notable, but unknown, exceptions) pretty much shooting in the dark for the first two days. In many ways, we still are. Yes, I pretty much started the ball rolling in both cases. But you all have your own minds and were perfectly capable of rejecting the arguments that I was putting forward. Yet, on each of the previous days, a number of you thought that my ideas made sense (although some of you no doubt did so with ulterior motives), just as they did to me. I would ask that you consider whether my behaviour over the last two days has been that of someone genuinely (if misguidedly) trying to seek out the Werwolves, or a deliberate attempt to lead the village into killing two innocents. If you conclude the latter, then so be it.

As for the remaining evidence against me, this consists of extracts from what I have said either in accusation or in support of one villager or another. Yes, theories against me can be built from those (albeit often quite convoluted ones involving a large degree of “double bluff“), but the same can be said of the things that (almost) every other villager has said.

As I indicated, I am not going to point the finger at anyone today. I will review what others say and vote accordingly at the end of the day. Although I have a few ideas, I currently remain very unsure of who the Werewolves may be, and I do not want to lead anyone down the wrong road yet again. I have made that mistake, and unwittingly done much of the Werewolves’ work for them, for two days running, and do not intend to do so again.

I will, however, make three points that I think may be of relevance.

It seems to me quite possible that on at least one occasion during the previous two days, one Werewolf will have voted for another. If so, it will have been done when it seemed safest to do so, ie when it would not (or would have been unlikely to) have resulted in that person’s lynching. Then, if the voter was then lynched and found to be a Werewolf, the votee would be able to distance themselves from him or her on the basis of that vote. It is only a possibility and is unlikely to have happened more than once (if at all), given the closeness of the voting.

Secondly, I think that people ought to pay some attention to the “tail end Charlie” role. It would seem sensible for the Werewolves to appoint one of their number (although probably not the same person on consecutive days) to hang around at the end of the day and see if they can catch a double (or even triple) lynching. I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day. Given their greater knowledge, they would surely be fairly confident of doing so. That said, it would also be sensible for one or two innocent villagers to hang around at the end of the day to prevent a double lynching (or even catch a double-Werewolf lynching, if they felt sufficiently confident of doing so). So, the fact that someone is, or makes a habit of, hanging around at the end of the day is not necessarily an indication of their guilt. But it would nevertheless be sensible to pay heed to the “tail end Charlies”.

Finally:

Duh!

OF COURSE I'm trying to get OUT of the NOOSE!!!

NOBODY wants to be in the noose!!!

It's one of the primary POINTS of the GAME!!!

Actually, that is not strictly true. An innocent villager should be less concerned about saving his or her own skin and more concerned about finding the Werewolves, even if that means saying and doing things that may result in his or her own death (either at the hands of the villagers or the claws of the Werewolves). This is a team game and the villagers should be working as a team (even if they don’t know their team mates), even if that means that an individual has to risk sacrificing him- or herself for the common good. So overly defensive behaviour is likely to be more indicative of a Werewolf than an innocent villager. I should note that I say that merely by way of an observation, rather than as an accusation.

In any event, it looks fairly likely that either the phantom or I will face the noose today. Obviously, your primary aim should be to lynch a Werewolf. I am not a Werewolf, but I would say that wouldn’t I. So Shelob’s point is a good one. You should also consider which one of us, in death, will tell you more, should we prove to be innocent. You will probably learn quite a bit from either of our deaths. But, if you think that you will learn more from mine, I will understand.

And now I’m off to crack open another barrel. :D

the phantom

06-07-2005, 09:00 PM

Killing an innocent TP brings the benefit of removing his confusing posts from the mix, and clarifying the real status of his posts to date. Killing an innocent SpM carries no equivalent benefit.
Huh?

My posts are confusing?

You must be reading them wrong.

The arguments I've given in my defense have been 100% completely and utterly logical. Not confusing.

My attack posts on SP, Estel, Firefoot, and you were not as solid as my defense posts (obviously, since I'm not absolutely sure of anyone's guilt), but my attack posts were way less confusing than most of the ones gunning at me.

Other people seem to want to lynch me because of a gut feeling or because of meaningless circumstances- no logic involved. When they've tried to involve logic I've blown huge gaping holes in it.

Forgive my arrogance, but my reasoning is a billion times more sound than the majority of the stuff coming at me.

In addition, as Firefoot said earlier, I'm probably less tied to people than anyone else on here, so you would think that my death would be the least meaningful.
Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous.
YES!! EXACTLY!!
I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day.
That's where you are wrong, SP. When there are two very easy to lynch suspects and no clear-cut favorites after that, it is NOT easy to just "subtly maneuvre" another villager in as the next victim after the favorites are gone. After the prime suspects are taken care of new ones have to be found and there is always the possibility that one of the new favorites would be a true wolf. The wolves want to keep this from happening, and so they take their time in lynching the guilty-looking ones and make multiple free kills during the night.

Take it from someone who has done it- that's usually the best way for a wolf to operate.

The Saucepan Man

06-07-2005, 09:15 PM

That's where you are wrong, SP.Quite possibly. I have been on most things so far. :( :D

But actually, I think that the Werewolves would see that as a risk worth taking, certainly while there are still three of them operating (and now there may be four). The Werewolves have got to whittle the villagers down, so they will have to move on from the "clear lynching favourites" sooner or later.

But why would you think it worth arguing against my theory, phantom? You have not been a "tail end Charlie" so far. Even if you think that it is unlikely, surely it is at least worth at least taking into account?

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by Estel (me):
Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous.

Originally posted by the phantom:

YES!! EXACTLY!!

The problem with you though, phantom, is that your reputation precedes you. You have been known as a mysterious, sometimes hard to decipher character, so it is hard to tell whether something is out of character for you, or if you are just switching things up. And don't get to excited...I've only put you off until next DAY (if you do indeed last that long), then I'll give you another hard look.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 09:24 PM

But why would you think it worth arguing against my theory, phantom? You have not been a "tail end Charlie" so far. Even if you think that it is unlikely, surely it is at least worth at least taking into account?
I am not generally opposed to your "tail end Charlie" theory. Kuru was a "tail end Charlie" in the first game.

I am only opposed to the thought that werewolves would probably try to achieve a double lynching. I don't think people should necessarily consider that when deciding who is a wolf. I felt the need to point it out so that in the future people keep this in mind when forming a theory.

The Only Real Estel

06-07-2005, 09:48 PM

I'm 99% sure of my vote & will post it tommorrow morning in the 7 o'clock area (central time). I have no reason this time to be one of the last to vote (that I know of), so if everyone rushes their vote in so that I am one of the last again it will not be my fault. :p

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 09:53 PM

The length of this is probably going to make people not want to read it and I’m pretty sure I can see how this is going to go, but I’m going to speak my piece anyway. I am pleased to see that there seems to be a general impulse to wait as long as possible.

Okay, the first point is that on DAY ONE The Saucepan Man was the one who first mentioned Evisse’s name as his primary suspect and he mentioned her name three times before I ever mentioned her.

my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN.
-The Saucepan Man post #48

My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN
-The Saucepan Man post #61

Or do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?
-The Saucepan Man post #62

(Notice how he had picked the first two lynching victims well in advance of the main event.)

I did not mention Evisse until post #63 when I gave voice to the uneasiness I felt about her. Then in her next post she said something that made me more nervous.

Then in his next post, The Saucepan Man encouraged me in my belief and Evisse suddenly has a much more prominent role in his speech…

Yes, I noticed that too, although it was hedged in such a way as to not look like too much of a reversal.
-and-
I would expect the "supporting" Werewolves to be forthright in their support for the proposals, while suitably hedging their comments with caveats which they could later use to distance themselves from the proposals. Which is precisely what Evisse did
-and-
In fact Evisse seems to be doing a lot of hedging ...

I still have time, but I have pretty much narrowed my vote down to her.
-The Saucepan Man post #76

And then in post #83 he actually voted for her before I did. In fact, he was ahead of me in just about every step on that road.

Now, a good bit of werewolf strategy on DAY ONE is to set somebody up to be lynched by mistake on DAY TWO. I freely admit that I had a rather forward role in Evisse’s death and that played right into somebody’s claws. I light of this we have…

That was what convinced me to vote for her (prompted, as I note below, by Kuruharan)
-and-
But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse
-and-
And I am now particularly suspicious of Kuru
-The Saucepan Man post #106

You will note how he immediately began harping on me as his primary suspect and playing up my role in Evisse’s death. That was the moment that I became suspicious of him because I know that I am innocent (and still am innocent, just in case we have a cursed werewolf running amuck).

After I made my post about watching people who were vocal against me, The Saucepan Man goes quiet for hours on end, a fact I noted in post #113, even though if you take a look at his posting record you can see that he was still around during that time. After I say this he pops up less than half an hour later to try to lull to sleep any suspicions my comments might have aroused (post #115)

It was post #120 when I first made an open accusation in Saucepan’s general direction.

In post #124 he contradicts himself (and returns to the old theme of blaming me for Evisse’s death) when he says…

The first is Kuru. He pretty much followed the “under the radar” strategy on Day 1, but ended up edging me towards Evisse and voting for her himself.
-The Saucepan Man post #124

If I was really “flying under the radar” I was not doing a very good job of it if I were so instrumental in his decision to vote for Evisse. In fact, “flying under the radar” implies saying as little as possible although by Saucepan’s account I was egging him on to kill Evisse, which I think I have shown is a matter of some degree of dubiousness (something that I think Saucepan thinks too. More about that below).

In post #128 I repeated my earlier challenge to lynch me and find out if I was telling the truth.

In his next post he says…

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you)
-The Saucepan Man post #134

Note how he is again trying to tie me to Evisse’s slaying.

In post #138 I called him on his role in Evisse’s hanging (and repeated my willingness to be lynched if it would prove my point.) In post #141 I voted against him and again repeated my challenge to lynch me to test my veracity.

I think at this point I had the werewolves, and specifically Saucepan Man, a little scared. We now get back to the Evisse hanging issue.

In his next post he said…

and I find myself questioning the conclusions that I am reaching.

Take Kuruharan, for example. Earlier today, I was convinced of his guilt on the basis that he edged me towards voting for Evisse yesterday, was directing the voting towards me today and was protesting his innocence too much in the face of very few accusations against him. But this can all be explained innocently. His conclusions concerning Evisse yesterday may well (like mine) have been genuine, he may genuinely (but mistakenly) believe me to be a Werewolf and, if he is innocent, his protestations are understandable.
-The Saucepan Man post #144

Notice how he is now falling all over himself to reverse course and keep me from being lynched because it would have been disastrous for him and probably a couple of his friends as well. He is also in this post utterly pooh-poohing any sinister connotation that could possibly be attached to Evisse’s slaying. This is a complete 180. I think it is not the least bit coincidental that it follows my challenging him on his role in Evisse’s death combined with my repeated invitations to lynch me. He is also trying to downplay any knowledge I may have gained about his role because I’d been accused, even though the accusations against me could hardly be described as “very few.” They were, in fact, repeated incessantly by himself and one or two others who I am ignoring for the present because they are not my targets this DAY.

If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?
-The Saucepan Man post #144

As a matter of fact, I can positively attest that this is a quite viable werewolf strategy. It is not as if this has not been tried before :rolleyes:. Let a highly visible wolf attract all the attention, delay its own death as long as possible, and then hope one or both of the others can slip through unnoticed at the end. I must say, if that is what the wolves are trying to do, it has certainly been working well thus far.

In post #147 he drops Son of Numenor’s name in from out of nowhere, returning to his secondary punching bag from DAY ONE.

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN
-and-
And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone.

So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR
-The Saucepan Man post #147

Notice how after that point he kept harping on Son of Numenor, keeping him in everyone’s mind.

And then we have today. A better job of flying under the radar you will never see. I could have taken a lesson or two from him on DAY ONE my ownself, if flying under the radar had been my intention. He makes one post (because he would be too painfully obvious if he did not) and then beat tracks for the tall grass. While he is gone, he does indeed fall off of most people’s radar, mainly due to the phantom drawing attention to himself and some other people stirring the pot.

Then we have my post #209 where I say…

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

And, LO AND BEHOLD…what happens. The Saucepan Man comes galloping back out from the tall grass trying to pooh-pooh the idea that there is anything sinister in his vanishing completely. Other parts of this post are also a real lu-lu.

But you all have your own minds and were perfectly capable of rejecting the arguments that I was putting forward.

As I noted before, you seem to have hooks through everybody’s jaws and you are now trying to pull on them by trying the whole “Oh, poor, poor, pathetic Saucepan” routine.

While he ever so reasonably and scrupulously avoids directly pointing any fingers at anyone (since as he admits, his advice has repeatedly led to the worst sort of mistakes) he does certainly give the village a shove in the direction of hanging the phantom. And in post #226 he is still at it. I personally think that even if he is not a werewolf, the very fact he is nudging us in that direction is a perfect reason not to hang the phantom this DAY. As he says, he’s not been right yet. At the very least we should do something that he does not want us to do. (Now just watch and see what he wants us to do…)

Now, a few other pieces of business…

Put bluntly, TP is either a wolf or an innocent who is helping the wolves by distracting our attention with his own suspicious behaviour, and slinging enough mud around to fill a horse paddock.
-Fordim

I fail to see how you of all people can be particularly accusatory in this regard. As far as I have observed this has been something of your own MO. I also fail to see why you can suspect the phantom over The Saucepan Man in this area. As a matter of fact, I think that if you are really honestly of that opinion you’d hang The Saucepan Man far sooner than the phantom.

I'm only saying that the damage to us is minimised if we kill an innocent Phantom rather than an innocent Spm.
-Fordim

A Saucepan Man who has specifically instigated the hanging of two innocents over a phantom who did not take a leading role in either (in spite of what might be said about the phantom’s motives in this…)? I’m skeptical of your reasoning (to put it mildly). Ockham’s Razor and all that…

Now I realize that all this is going to be construed that I am defending the phantom. That is not really my intent. I don’t know if the phantom is a werewolf. He might be. I’m intent on getting The Saucepan Man hung and this DAY I don’t really care about anybody else. I’ll worry about them later if I live to see it.

What I disagree with here is the course of action that a large number of you seem to be bent on taking. To me the evidence reads that there is a much stronger possibility that The Saucepan Man is a werewolf than the phantom. This does not mean that I believe the phantom is not a werewolf. It does mean that I think we should hang the Saucepan Man first and then see what happens before we start acting on different speculation.

However, no matter what I say you will believe I’m trying to defend the phantom. If you hang him and he proves to be a werewolf, I suppose it will look bad for me. But it’s looked bad for me already and as I said before I have no particular objection to being lynched if snapping my head off will put sense into some others. However, if he is proved to be innocent, perhaps then you will be in more of a mood to listen. (Although if he is proved innocent then I will probably be killed during the night because that would be the safest time to put me out of the way before anybody could start listening to me again). Of course, I thought you would be in more of a mood to listen today…

To ensure that Shelob cannot accuse me (again) of not having the courage of my convictions…

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

(Although on the other hand, Fordim does seem to spend an awful lot of time justifying hanging people he thinks might be innocent. This is his second one in a row. Notice how he has also made a rather strange adaptation of my own logic from DAY TWO.)

I also have no doubt that those of you who go to bed will just pop in to vote without reading all this and that this will all be ignored by those who do read it. Oh well, fortunes of war and all that sort of thing you know. ;)

Shelob

06-07-2005, 09:56 PM

Like TORE I'm all but sure of my vote...the only reason I'm not voting now is because Saucepan Man said

"You will probably learn quite a bit from either of our deaths. But, if you think that you will learn more from mine, I will understand."

Can anyone think of a reason why it would be better for us to lynch him? Ignoring all the suspicions flying around is there any reason why one of them (phantom or spm) is a better choice than the other?...I can't think of any now, so unless someone else can I know which way I'll be voting in the morning.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 10:14 PM

As I suspected, people are not reading my post. Why do I even bother... :rolleyes:

mormegil

06-07-2005, 10:26 PM

As I suspected, people are not reading my post. Why do I even bother... :rolleyes:

That's a bit pouty of an attitude. I actually just finished your post...it is rather long so it took me a while and I am working so that makes it double difficult.

I see your logic and am inclined to agree with you as much as it pains me inside to not go with what I've been posting since day 1. I would like your promise though that if I do vote SpM tonight that you will do a detailed search of the phantom tomorrow as my logic is seemingly ludicrous and has no real merit.

the phantom

06-07-2005, 10:28 PM

I personally think that even if he is not a werewolf, the very fact he is nudging us in that direction is a perfect reason not to hang the phantom this DAY. As he says, he’s not been right yet. At the very least we should do something that he does not want us to do.
Heh- can't argue with that. :p

Fordim said-
Put bluntly, TP is either a wolf or an innocent who is helping the wolves by distracting our attention with his own suspicious behaviour, and slinging enough mud around to fill a horse paddock.
And Kuru answered-
I also fail to see why you can suspect the phantom over The Saucepan Man in this area. As a matter of fact, I think that if you are really honestly of that opinion you’d hang The Saucepan Man far sooner than the phantom.
I agree with that.
A Saucepan Man who has specifically instigated the hanging of two innocents over a phantom who did not take a leading role in either...I’m skeptical of your reasoning (to put it mildly).
Good point again, Kuru. As I also pointed out, Fordim's preference of me over Saucy makes little sense.
To me the evidence reads that there is a much stronger possibility that The Saucepan Man is a werewolf than the phantom. This does not mean that I believe the phantom is not a werewolf. It does mean that I think we should hang the Saucepan Man first and then see what happens before we start acting on different speculation.
I completely agree.
Can anyone think of a reason why it would be better for us to lynch him? Ignoring all the suspicions flying around is there any reason why one of them (phantom or spm) is a better choice than the other?
Did you skip Kuru's post?
As I suspected, people are not reading my post. Why do I even bother... :rolleyes:
I read it.

It was very good.

I was already going to cast my vote for Saucy, but now I am a bit more confident in my vote.

+ + The Saucepan Man

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 10:35 PM

That's a bit pouty of an attitude.

Yeah, you are probably right. I probably shouldn't have said that.

I was just giving vent to a little frustration because I'm going to have to be up much later than I'd intended tonight hunting down books for my professor on WORLDCAT because that post took a lot longer to make than I'd hoped.

Sorry Shelob. :)

the phantom

06-07-2005, 10:47 PM

Oh, and Shelob, why aren't you willing to vote for Saucy before me? You voted for him yesterday- you might as well do it again and see if you were right.

Or did a werewolf bite change your mind? ;)

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 10:57 PM

Or did a werewolf bite change your mind?

I'd been wondering that myself.

Shelob

06-07-2005, 11:16 PM

"because I'm going to have to be up much later than I'd intended tonight" ~Kuru

I know how you feel...I'm not done with homework yet and when I finished my last post I told myself "That's it, no more Barrow-Downs until tomorrow" and look where I am...right back here...

"To ensure that Shelob cannot accuse me (again) of not having the courage of my convictions…" ~Kuru

I hope you don't mind but given that you also say 'Sorry Shelob. :) ' I'm reading this somewhat in the way of a jest...I hadn't actually ment to accuse you anything I was just wondering why since you seemed so sure you wouldn't just vote...Only to turn around and realize that I felt much the same way...

"Oh, and Shelob, why aren't you willing to vote for Saucy before me? You voted for him yesterday- you might as well do it again and see if you were right." ~Phantom

I was willing...I am willing...I will be willing...sorry, tenses have just about lost all meaning--and since it's now after 1 in the morning where I am I think you can forgive me for not fetting about it here, I'm saving fretting for the paper that's due tomorrow and still isn't finished...

What happened was I wondered why Kuru would suggest Saucepan Man when (as I was remembering) general suspicion seemed to be on you. I then had to go eat, when I came back I counted (as I described ye-many posts before) and realized that it was really really close and that SpM was by a hinted accusation actually ahead of you. After your outburst My mind was flitting through possibilities and landed upon the possibility I described in my bullet-point post.

Since that point I've been unable to work my mind around to seeing the advantages of killing Saucepan Man. I know that they're there...it's just my mind got itself caught between cleaning and homework to the point where the path it had already laid out here was clear and everything else gets detoured into my big end of the year project (mumblewhinecomplain)...that's why I asked "Can anyone think of a reason why it would be better for us to lynch him [SpM]?" I honestly can't given my state of mind right now.

As to this

"Or did a werewolf bite change your mind? ;)"

Given my state of mind and My already proven inability to figure out what's said in jest and what isn't I'm going with the fact that Kuru seems to have taken this seriously to respond that what I've said above is true, whether or not you believe it is up to you...and if we're talking about bites I would like to point out that a veritable army of mosquitos have taken up residence in my room, I've got so many bites I probably wouldn't relize if a werewolf slipped one in...if, however, I turn into a mosquito tonight you'll know that were-wolves aren't the least of our problems, we'll have to deal with were-mosquitos too...

the phantom

06-07-2005, 11:30 PM

Well, I'm off to bed so I won't be around to argue any more until shortly before the deadline.

As my last contribution to those of you who can't make up your minds, I'll provide links to all of my wonderful posts defending myself. :) :p

I am innocent (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392409&postcount=192). I'm super innocent (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392414&postcount=195). No wait, I'm extremely innocent (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392480&postcount=203). Or should I say entirely innocent (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392484&postcount=206). Or perhaps innocent as pure wind-driven snow (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392488&postcount=210). And don't forget I'm child-like innocent (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=392510&postcount=225).

Read them and see if you can really support the case against me as much as you can support the case against Saucy.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 11:35 PM

Or perhaps innocent as pure wind-driven snow.

I've started a fad.

I've got so many bites I probably wouldn't relize if a werewolf slipped one in...if, however, I turn into a mosquito tonight you'll know that were-wolves aren't the least of our problems, we'll have to deal with were-mosquitos too...

Is this a "yes?" This almost reads to me like a "yes."

If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.

(Let's see if that doesn't bring him out of the woodwork.)

mormegil

06-07-2005, 11:41 PM

My head is currently spinning and I don't know which way to go. Do I vote for SpM or the phantom?
Kuruharan has made some good points about SpM but I've felt his guilt and found some evidence against the phantom.

SpM seems more willing to die and agrees with my general philosophy that this a team game and innocents should be willing to die if it will help the cause.

Kuru and The Phantom seem to be doing a lot of agreeing. Is the phantom seeing an innocent to side with?

Kuru accused SpM of flying under the radar and then being vocal after he was accused. I noticed the same thing with Kuru the first day so I'm not sure that arouses my suspicion.

But many good points were made by Kuru and set forth well.

What to do? :( :confused:

Edit: All I know for certain is that we had better bag a werewolf today or we are just about all dead.

Kuruharan

06-07-2005, 11:53 PM

What to do?

Trust me. Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later. This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me. Just pick who you think is more trustworthy.

EDIT: Of course, you want to pick the Saucepan Man if you really want to bag a werewolf, since I'm not one. ;)

Shelob

06-07-2005, 11:55 PM

"Is this a "yes?" This almost reads to me like a "yes."" ~Kuru

My response to that is that I'm apparently not the only one who can miss giant 'This is a Joke' signs...though if your mind is in the same state as mine I can't say I blame you...

alright...if I come back on tonight yell at me...Remind me that my grade depends on the paper and not on werewolf...

Upon the morrow my friends, upon the morrow.

mormegil

06-07-2005, 11:59 PM

Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later.

Can I? I'm not known for my convincing arguement and having a large following such as you, tp , spm and other. I have been trying for two days to get him lynched now I see I may have to opportunity. Will I be throwing that away? I feel like I've worked hard and fought well for that, now just to give up when it's almost in my grasp would be a bit silly.

Kuruharan

06-08-2005, 12:11 AM

My response to that is that I'm apparently not the only one who can miss giant 'This is a Joke' signs

My response to that is that I know from personal experience in this type of game is that people often give away much more than they intend to with what they say.

There is a very simple way for you to solve your problem (and allay my suspicions of you at the same time). Just vote for Saucepan.

I'm not known for my convincing arguement and having a large following such as you, tp , spm and other

I have a following?! :eek: It's news to me. Look, like I said earlier, I don't know that the phantom isn't a werewolf. But we should only try to hang one at a time.
As I have been repeatedly asking, is there anyone here who does not have serious suspicions of Saucepan? The best way for you to build credibility is for you to vote for a wolf. Suddenly, when that happens, you've got some "capital" that politicians and political scientists are always nattering on about. You've said it yourself, I've built a convincing case. Don't you think it might be a good idea to get some capital to spend the next DAY. I promise you that I will read what you have to say about the phantom very carefully. You can even do what I did and take three hours and more if you like. ;) I'll wait to see what you have to say before I do anything. In fact, I'll even let you have first crack at it before I attempt to develop any new theories.

(This is assuming of course I live through the NIGHT.)

mormegil

06-08-2005, 01:05 AM

Well it is now time for me to vote and I am going to take Kuru's advice of getting some capital for myself. But not in the way Kuru wants. I have reread your arguement against SpM and I think that it is very good but I was able to see things in it that didn't add all they way up (such as taking things out of context and manipulating what he said). I know this may come across that I am defending him but I am not. I just simply cannot feel right about voting for him while the phantom is still out there killing innocents.

According to my calculations we have a better chance of getting phantom lynched today than we do SpM. I have stated that I think the phantom is guilty since early on and wouldn't be faithful if I didn't use this opportunity. I have a couple others I'm looking at next round, of which SpM is one and rather high on my list. I wanted to wait till later but I won't have time after right now to vote so I must vote for:

++THE PHANTOM

And hope that a sufficient amount of people follow Azaelia and myself on this. If he, beyond my thought, is found innocent then I fully expect to be a prime suspect but I am willing to take that risk.

The Saucepan Man

06-08-2005, 03:49 AM

Goodness me! What a lot of energy is being directed by a certain two villagers in trying to persuade the village to lynch me. The phantom’s efforts are understandable, given that it is pretty clearly either him or me today. Although I have misgivings about any innocent villager who is prepared to spend quite so much time trying to save their own skin. Kuruharan, I suppose, is sticking to the opinion which he formed at the beginning of the day. But he does seem very unwilling to listen to anyone else’s opinion, while making a lot of noise himself.

The closed minds that these two are displaying makes me very uneasy. Then again, if I am lynched, you will see that I am innocent. That makes it very risky for a Werewolf to direct quite so much energy towards attacking me. I am now almost certain that one of them is innocent but misguided and the other is a Werewolf setting himself up as a DAY 4 sacrifice. It is highly doubtful that two Werewolves would do that. Only problem is, I have little idea which one of them is the innocent one and which is the guilty one.

To the extent that Kuru’s long post against me relies on my having been instrumental in the lynching of two innocents, I cannot deny it. I have acknowledged that fact myself on a number of occasions. Other than that, it is purely quotes taken out of context (as mormegil notes) and conjecture.

There are, however, a few points which I must address.

Kuru, when I said that you “flew under the radar” on DAY 1, I meant that you said practically nothing controversial until the discussion began to identify a single candidate for lynching (Evisse – by Shelob’s vote and my conjecture). You then concentrated your efforts on that candidate. That was the impression that I gained, in any event.

I never stopped suspecting you on DAY 2 although, as I said, I did begin to doubt my own thought processes after the outcome of DAY 1. I have given my reasons for accusing SoN. However, if I did not make it sufficiently clear, one of them was that you (one of my suspects) had seemed to draw my attention away from him on DAY 1. Since he proved innocent, that is clearly no longer a valid reason for suspecting you.

You point out that it is a valid strategy for a Werewolf to sacrifice him- or herself in order to get an innocent lynched. I agree. Indeed, it seems to be what either you or the phantom are doing today. But it is not a role that I would wish to take on, were I a Werewolf. Not at the outset anyway. Then again, you only have my word for that.

You seem to think that my previous two posts were nudging the village towards voting for the phantom. Well, given the current state of affairs, any attempt to defend myself is impliedly a nudge in the phantom’s direction since it is ether him or me today. Believe me, if I was more certain of his guilt, I would be more than happy to lay out my evidence for all to see and attempt to guarantee that he gets lynched. But I have no such certainty. All I really have to go on is the incredible energy that he has put into defending himself today. But I am by no means certain that this marks him out as a Werewolf.

If that means that I get lynched while he goes free, then I will at least content myself that the village will learn something from my death. Of course, the same goes for the phantom, if he is innocent. On that basis, and given that no one else seems to be anywhere near the frame today, I will probably end up having to vote for the phantom today. But I am by no means certain of his guilt.

The only thing that I can say with any degree of certainty based on today’s events is that it seems fairly likely to me that either the phantom or Kuruharan is a Werewolf.

Finally, I am not at all sure what to make of these comments by Kuruharan:

If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.I have no idea what he meant by that but, whatever he did mean, it seems to be reading far too much into what was clearly a flippant comment.

This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me.A curious comment. I am not aware that anyone has given any indication of voting for Kuru today, so why would he say that? If he is staking his innocence on my guilt, it is a very risky tactic for a Werewolf, given that my innocence may very well soon be proved.

As I said, I really don't know what to make of these comments, but they stood out to me.

I doubt that I shall post again before I vote as I have work to be getting on with. But, given the situation, I shall almost certainly be voting for the phantom. I will not vote now, as I would like to avoid any possibility of both he and I being lynched. If it looks like that could happen, I shall either not vote, or vote for someone else. I would rather that I die alone than have two innocents die today (and I have no certainty that the phantom is guilty).