TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Firefoot]

All right, I'll see what I can do.

Post 44

While she does not come out and say "I'm innocent," there are strong undertones of this. Strong emotions, phrases like "fellow villagers," etc. As far as words go, the gist of the meaning is "I'm not sure what I'm doing, I'll have to wait and see what happens before making any decisions." As Esty herself has confessed, she has a flair for the dramatic which makes this more difficult as dramatic tends to be something I look for in a wolf. Nothing conclusive here.

Post 51

She starts out defending herself to Boromir, who accused her on the grounds of "horrible sewing." Again, she states that she has no knowledge of what anyone else is and we don't have enough to judge people on, just words. This could be construed to look innocent or guilty, depending on how you look at it, and it comes down to the same Esty question - is she really not sure, an inexperienced wolf, or both?

Post 65

Some in-character response to LMP and a reiteration of the sentiment that she can't trust anyone. Same as 51 - could be made to look innocent or guilty.

Post 81

States that she will have to vote either early or late, and that it seems that her vote will be random as she has no real suspicions. Could be an innocent not sure of what's going on or a wolf not wanting to cast suspicions to soon to loudly.

Post 93

Repeats that her vote will be random as she has no idea how to form some suspicions. Same as above.

Posts 96-97

Votes for Shelob using a completely random method of the eenie meenie minie mo sort, hoping it was a good vote. If this wasn't her first ww game, I would be concerned, as generally it's better to vote for someone you think at least could be suspicious (I'd say). As it is, I'm not sure. This could be an easy way to hide.

Post 148

After some more dramatics (Esty, don't get me wrong. If dramatics and in-character stuff is your style of play, go for it. Look at Fea. ;) ), she states for the first time that she thinks one of the wolves is probably among those who voted for Ang. In itself, this is not very suspicious; however, if she were a wolf, I think it would be safe to say that none of these four (now three) people she is accusing are wolves. From what we've seen so far of Esty, I wouldn't doubt that if she were a wolf in this game, caution would be her preferred style of play, not incriminating her fellow wolves any more than absolutely necessary to keep up appearances. And if her fellow wolf is Fea, as I suggested in my above post, this could work well.

Post 158

Repeats her suspicions of those four who voted for Ang; see above. She also mentions that Shelob's early vote for Lhuna is curious, and wonders what that might tell us about Shelob. She seems to be trying to cast some guilt on her, more deflection of attention.

Post 174

This is her first really substantial post of the game. She starts out repeating her suspicions of those four Ang-voters, though she doesn't seem to be very firm about those. For everyone else she names as being possibly suspicious, she seems to immediately negate that sentiment with a "but I'm not sure" or "there's not enough evidence." The only candidate she names as being wholly unsuspicious is TGBWS because his logic seems sound to her - who both days has voted with her consecutively for Shelob. She also does not identify Fea ("unpredictable") or LMP ("not enough information") as being particularly innocent or guilty. Interesting that she has not commented on at all the voting of me, LMP, and Morm for Cailin, neither to think we're innocent or guilty because of it, which just about everyone else has. It could have been an oversight, but I would think that it would factor in. This phrase, finishing her post, caught my eye just now: "So far I can't recognize the seer, but that's probably good. If I could, I'm sure the experienced wolves would as well!" Something about this turn of a phrase doesn't sit well with me. Now that I try to explain it, it doesn't work, but it made me go "What?"

Post 178

She votes for Shelob, having noticed that TGWBS has also voted for her. She mentions that she is hesitant to do so but goes ahead with it anyway because she is her greatest suspicion. Because of this, I don't think she would be a wolf with TGWBS, but it's possible. They could be bluffing, and with wolves able to talk all day, it would be easy enough for them to plan it. Hm...

Post 205

All dramatics. I don't think anything can be taken out of it.

Post 214

Most suspiciously, that's the post that's had me singing "Santa Claus is Coming to Town" all day... ;) Seriously though: She defends her position of having voted for Shelob two days in row along with TGBWS. As support she mentions that Formen and Boromir have both voted for the same person as well - deflecting the spotlight off of her and TGWBS. I don't think she would deflect attention onto a fellow wolf like that, so if she is a wolf I dobut Formen or Boromir is as well. She also questions whether the wolves were actually going after the ranger or the person he was guarding. Genuine or an attempt to make it look like she doesn't know what the wolves are doing?

Post 220

She says that her vote for Shelob was made regardless of what TGWBS did because Shelob topped her suspect list, which is true enough. She had been suspicious of Shelob, though I suppose the wolves could have had Shelob targeted. That sounds a little far-fetched though, and it seems more likely that if she is a wolf, TGWBS is not her partner but possibly someone she attached herself to, or even someone with no intended connection at all.

Post 224

She goes back to her theory that one of the wolves voted for Ang, in particular looking at Encai. She also suggests a possible Encai/Fea partnership. Honest, or trying to distance herself from Fea?

Post 235

Here is where she comments on her own enjoyment of getting into a role a bit more and being rather dramatic. Whether she is innocent or guilty, I think this can be taken as written in good intent - meaning that any dramatics are not a sign of guilt.

Post 240

She states that her suspect list hasn't narrowed definitively, though she puts emphasis on Encai, Fea, Formendacil, and Lhuna. This could be starting to push the Fea/Esty theory.

Post 243

Says she will be back early for her, late in voting to cast vote. Nothing indicitive there.

So while a lot she says can be construed to look suspicious, or even flat out just does look suspicious, most of the possibilities for who she could be partnered with get to a far-fetched point. The one thing I have noticed is that she is very good at either staying out of the limelight in the first place or deflecting it once it gets there. I've not made my mind up yet.

That sure took long enough! And, now that I look at it, it is rather lengthy. Sorry about that.

Cross-posting with Boromir, Morm, and Formendacil.

[Firefoot]

In response to Morm: I'll try to hold my vote for a while, but staying up that late doesn't agree with my body. Also, I have to be up fairly early tomorrow. So I'll see what I can do.

Lhuna – 1 (TGWBS 1)
Formendacil 1 – (Boromir 2)
Fea – 1 (Formendacil 3)

If this and the day's discussions have been any indication, the voting will be close again. I could (at least theoretically) see myself voting for any of those three (or others) at this point.

[Encaitare]

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

That statement really didn't help clear your name from my suspicion list. I don't think I'll vote for you, Boromir, because I have nothing to base it on other than these "known innocent" bits you keep reiterating.

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's posts have bumped the latter up on my list a bit as well, although Firefoot's of Esty has done the same, so perhaps it's just the focus on one person that makes it all the more incriminating.

I'm of a like mind with TGWBS toDay. Lhuna hasn't made any contributions, which leaves us in the dark for her, which gives me an uneasy feeling. I may vote for her, or for Formendacil. This will be done in approximately 0.5 hours.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Though I've currently got little extra to add, I think it best to keep up while I can, and comment on that which intrigues or bothers me.

So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf?
I don't tell people that I'm bluffing! I might tell people that I'm a wolf, but I don't tell that I'm bluffing. If I want mass confusion, I let people rip each other apart. I don't want mass confusion, so I'm being vocal in what I hope is a helpful way, though sadly not as vocal as usual. Perhaps university has matured me? I doubt it, but you never know. It just seems like I'm not seeing anything that causes me to attack the ones I think are guilty. Usually there's a clue, you know? This time it's a tough game to call. Generally there are a few experienced players that you can call bluffs on based on past performances, and there are newbies that you can pick apart because they make errors when they're bad and are obvious when they aren't. This game? Even the inexperienced players have at least seen some of the gaming, or know of it, and they are highly intelligent. They play the role well of "I'm not always sure what's going on." but I tend to really want to call them on bluff. Even the very first village we were made aware of, we all played more exhuberantly than they display signs of. You just can't tell if they are honestly a little behind the times or if they just want us to think it. That makes me nervous and gives me the knee-jerk reaction "let's kill the newbies and then if that doesn't work, at least we'll be dissecting the motives of those whose capabilities we've got a grasp on."

That statement relates to my feelings on Esty and Underhillo. I'm less convinced of her guilt than ever after having read her blog where she comments that she's innocent, but I also wouldn't put it past her to do that as a sort of a back up in case somebody decided to click the mysterious link in her sig one bored Saturday afternoon. So I really don't know about those two. But of them, I lean a lot toward Esty's innocence and Underhill's guilt. I don't like it at all that so many people have suspected him. Like I said.. .with at least seven people convinced that he's acting wolfy, it shows that it's not just being fingered by wolves for a bandwagoning. Or maybe it does... I'm leaning more toward "Enough people think or have thought that he is far less than purely innocent, it might just be worth the lynch."

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.
I don't like this at all. Having a Seer dream of you doesn't make you the least bit innocent. It just means that the Seer hasn't openly declared his/herself yet and said "Fea was right the first time, Boro's a wolf." I wonder if this is a trick to make the Seer step forward and say something that accidentally gives up his or her identity. This would be disastrous if the Seer hasn't yet dreamt of both wolves. With no Ranger, the Seer would be entirely without protection. For shame, Boro, you should know better than to bait the good guys. For all our bad luck, it could actually work.

[Encaitare]

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

:eek:

I had not noticed that before! Boromir, you are digging yourself in deeper and deeper with these statements. No one knows you're innocent. You could be a wolf and the Seer hasn't yet stepped forward about it. I said I wasn't going to vote for you before, but here goes nothing. Maybe I'll die like you said (threatened?) I would, but I'll take that risk.

++ BOROMIR 88

[Firefoot]

This will likely be my last real analysis before I vote, though I may come in with a few comments. I'll be voting probably in about an hour and a half.

Boromir - I don't know what to think of him, other than that he's acting like an idiot. If he's a wolf, he's almost too suspicious to be true. If he's an innocent, then he's digging his own grave and taking the focus away from the real wolves.

Encai - She's on my suspect list, though I don't think I'll be voting for her today. I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow, though, probably post by post as has been done with Esty and Formen. I haven't seen anything that would strongly suggest her guilt, though closer analysis might show something.

Esty - Despite my lengthy accusation/analysis of her, I'm not convinced of her guilt at all. I'm currently leaning towards innocence, though I do have concerns about her which I have already stated.

Fea - What's to be said? She makes me nervous, but I do feel like she was set up. I'm not so sure that there isn't something in the Fea/Encai theory. But overall, I'd say Fea's probably innocent - at any rate, she won't be receiving my vote today.

Formendacil - I think he's likely to be a wolf - he could get my vote tonight. I've already stated my opinions of him, though, so I'm not going to go into anything lengthy here. My opinion really hasn't changed.

Lhuna - She's another one who could get my vote. There just isn't enough to go off of for her, her posts have been vague, containing no concrete accusations. She could be a wolf, but we'd have nothing with which to accuse her because she doesn't post often. I know she lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way.

Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now.

Mormegil - I'm about 98% confident of his innocence. I have no reason to suspect him, as his arguments and suspects have made sense to me, even when viewed from a critical eye.

TGWBS - I'm having a really hard time getting a grasp on him - he's very slippery. He's another one I think a post-by-post analysis might be very useful for.

I don't think there's anything new here - it's more like a summary of my position setting up my vote, hence my lack of supporting details.

[Boromir88]

You'll all pay if I die. Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, no use in fighting it, but hey if you want me hanged to see it, then it's your own loss. If you all are stupid enough to follow Enca and hang me, then I suggest you hang Formendacil one day and Enca the next. Unlike Eomer and Anguirel whom voted for me, and I knew were innocent, I feel that I've been on a wolf since the very beginning (Formendacil) and this is Enca's attempt to save her pal.

Fea, I'm not trying to drag out anyone. I think I have already been dreamed of, since I was the most suspicious person entering into Day 2. Whether the Seer wants to reveal him/herself or not is completely up to them. Why would what I have to say make the Seer come out? If the Seer comes out because of what I said then this village deserves to be doomed.

[Firefoot]

Well, I had hoped not to vote so soon but I am falling asleep even as I write this.

++Formendacil

is my vote.

Edit: Cross-posting with Boromir, who is getting extremely defensive now...

[Boromir88]

Edit: Cross-posting with Boromir, who is getting extremely defensive now...
Defensive, nah, just appalled at the seemingly low intellegence level of the village. So here's your options as I see it.

1) Hang me today. Waste a day, and cry over my death about how wrong and sorry you are for losing me. Then lament "Why oh why did we hang him? He only told us he was innocent 50,000 times." (And apparently that's what it's taking and I'm still not getting through. I've never seen thicker skulls in people, honestly.

or

2) Actually be productive for once and hang a wolf.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, I awoke early with a name on my mind, but before I vote I'm catching up with previous posts to see what others are thinking.

I'm uncomfortable with morm's assertion that he and Firefoot are innocent and should therefore vote late. Anyone who states with such certainty that another is innocent is either a wolf who knows, or the seer. (I would not dare to call anyone a known innocent yet!) Not yet uncomfortable enough to make either of them my prime suspect though.

Firefoot's post-by-post analysis of me amuses me, as it takes me more seriously than I take myself! However, it is right and proper to leave no one and no factor out of the total picture. The only ones who know my innocence are the wolves, and possibly the seer.

I'm startled over Boro's "You'll all pay if I die." He's doing a pretty good job of keeping his statements confusing. Either he's on to something with his third time vote for Formy, in which case his defensiveness is a desperate warning, or he's being stubborn. Enca's vote for him could be one wolf trying to save another, i.e. Formy.

I do take Boro's thoughts that the wolves could be setting Fea up for lynching seriously, though I'm not sure. She is still an uncertain factor for me, but not top on my list yet. As for Fea's comment on my blog entry, well - duh! You wouldn't expect me to come out and claim anything but innocence on a blog that is read almost exclusively by Downers, would you? And that during the game! I may be a newbie to this game, but I'm not stupid. Anyway, the blog is only for sharing funny comments with those who know me but are not reading here. Besides, while I'm still alive here, I don't have much time to do anything else to blog about, do I?! :rolleyes:

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Nothing I've read makes me change my mind, so I will vote now. Again, my main reason is the argumentation concerning both previous votes, which incriminates Enca, in my opinion. Therefore:

++Encaitare

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

As for Fea's comment on my blog entry, well - duh! You wouldn't expect me to come out and claim anything but innocence on a blog that is read almost exclusively by Downers, would you? And that during the game! I may be a newbie to this game, but I'm not stupid. Anyway, the blog is only for sharing funny comments with those who know me but are not reading here. Besides, while I'm still alive here, I don't have much time to do anything else to blog about, do I?! :rolleyes:
I'll admit that I wasn't expecting to find "Mwahahaha, those foolish villagers still don't suspect me!" However I also wasn't expecting to find game-related comments at all. They can be so easily misconstrued. That's why I haven't been using game-related away messages on AIM. Encai would be able to see them, as well as a few others. I've refrained from using a few funny comments as new sigs because they'd likely be mistaken for things. That's why your blog struck me into comment.

In any case... I'm noticing a bit of a let's vote Formendacil trend tonight, which I'm not all that opposed to, given my misgivings toward him.

But is there any way that we could orchestrate a double lynching between him and Underhill? It would clear up the nagging doubts that many of us seem to have about Underhill, and would clear up the suspicion surrounding Formy. If you want explanation as to why I think it would be permissable to kill two people intentionally on one night, reread my really long post from this afternoon (EST).

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Sorry to double-post, but I've only just realized that I'd like to go to bed and then sleep really late tomorrow, as it's my only day off from classes and I need the rest.

That means that I'm voting now for

++Mister Underhill

Before, his quiet "playing dumb" nature bothered me because we all know that he isn't dumb. Then I started rereading the thread and realized just how many people suspected him. Then I realized that I suspected him, and that was quite the shock to learn. Here I'd been vaguely concentrating on B88 and LMP. I guess that's what I get, being distracted by Rëâl Lìfè and all of its complications. :D :rolleyes: Not saying B's innocent, mind, just that I currently think Mister Underhill is the bigger problem to be solved tonight.

[mormegil]

Lhuna – 1 (TGWBS 1)
Formendacil 2 – (Boromir 2, Firefoot 5)
Fea – 1 (Formendacil 3)
Boromir - 1 (Encaitare 4)
Encaitare - 1 (Esty 6)
Mister Underhill - 1 (Feanor 7)

This leaves Lhuna, Underhill and me left to vote. I will continue to wait it out and if I need to make or break a tie depending upon what I see I will do it.

[mormegil]

I'm uncomfortable with morm's assertion that he and Firefoot are innocent and should therefore vote late. Anyone who states with such certainty that another is innocent is either a wolf who knows, or the seer. (I would not dare to call anyone a known innocent yet!) Not yet uncomfortable enough to make either of them my prime suspect though.


That is fine and I respect that however I stand by my assessment of Firefoot. If I don't start believing that somebody is innocent then what is the point? You need to filter innocents from the culpable and I feel that I can give Firefoot enough of my trust though it appears that she won't be around to vote at the end with me.

Let me reexplain why I am waiting. First I am innocent and it's generally believed that I am. There have been too many late votes where ties were made and broken to make me believe wolves weren't involved somewhere. What I hope is to minimize the wolfish influence and hopefully bag a wolf or two.

[Mister Underhill]

Well, busy day -- wasn't sure I would even make it home in time to vote. I've read up on the thread. All these suspicions of me seem to be based on me "playing dumb", to which I can only reiterate my previous response: I only wish I was playing. I'm still lagging behind the experienced villagers strategy-wise and making tactical discoveries that others take for granted.

I'm torn here. Though Fea went down on my suspicion list a bit, I by no means trust her -- especially since she's leading the charge against me tonight.

Boromir just seems too obvious to be a wolf, though he's certainly not on my "most trusted" list.

I could easily see myself casting an Enca vote, based on all-over-the-map posting and a sketchy voting record.

I'm gonna have to go...

+ +Formendacil

Two votes for me in a row, then suddenly he switches to a Fea vote, on a day where suspicion of me is growing and suspicion of Fea is waning? Smells like a wolf who started the campaign against me and now is ducking for cover in case I'm lynched and revealed to be innocent.

[mormegil]

Lhuna – 1 (TGWBS 1)
Formendacil 3 – (Boromir 2, Firefoot 5, Mister Underhill 8)
Fea – 1 (Formendacil 3)
Boromir - 1 (Encaitare 4)
Encaitare - 1 (Esty 6)
Mister Underhill - 1 (Feanor 7)

I feared that he would do this. All but preventing a possible tie for him and saving himself but not acknowledging it. If Formendacil is innocent I would posit that Mister Underhill is a Wolf so unless Lhuna shows up and votes for Underhill he is safe today. But waiting for Lhuna to show up is doubtful.

[mormegil]

Sorry for so many small post...

I was really hoping to get rid of Formen and Encai today. I'm convinced that at least one of them is a wolf. Therefore Lhuna if you do get here in time please post for Encai and I will tie it up.

[mormegil]

To ensure I don't miss the deadline I will vote and pray the Lhuna shows up in the next 5 minutes.

++Encaitare

Sigh...I wish this would have worked out better though I think I will investigate Mister Underhill more thoroughly if I am alive next DAY.

[Mister Underhill]

If I'd have known you were looking for a tie, I would have easily been convinced to vote Enca... whatever happens, the wolves' game of turning the innocents against each other is working at least this far.

Well, I can only hope I've chosen wisely and that Form is a wolf.

[the phantom]

"You know, I think littlemanpoet and Eomer had the right idea."

Everyone in the tavern turned to look at Estelyn.

"What do you mean, Esty?" asked Encaitare.

"Well, you see," began Estelyn, "Those two both had a talent, and they used it to combat the wolves. Maybe we should try and find ways our skills can be used to combat the wolves!"

"Well, that's a nice thought," said the guy who be short, "But what're you going to do, Esty, sneak up on the wolves and sew them into straightjackets? Ha ha! Or maybe shoot needles at them with a mini-bow?"

The villagers all laughed, though they tried to hold it in to spare Esty's feelings (except Boromir, who guffawed uproariously as he pointed at Esty and slapped his knee).

"No, I'm serious!" shouted Esty. "Maybe I can't do much, but there are some others among you who can! Firefoot for instance- you know all about herbs and plants. You need to look through all your old books and such and see if there isn't some sort of plant-juice or something that can be used to detect wolves."

"Oh, I get what you're saying!" exclaimed Firefoot. "Maybe we're not great warriors like Eomer and littlemanpoet and so we can't take on the wolves physically, but you're right- we can try to use what skills we have to aid the village. I'll get started on some herb-based werewolf strategies immediately!"

The idea caught on with the rest of the village, and everyone got up to go get to work on something that would benefit the village.

"I'm going to go make a special watch stone," said Mister Underhill. "It'll be really useful. I'll make it so whenever werewolves come near, it comes to life and fights them while calling 'Werewolf in the village! Werewolf in the village!'"

"I'm going to analyze everyone's droppings," said Formendacil. "Perhaps the people that are werewolves have slightly different excrement."

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

There's a post on the way in a few minutes.

It's taking a while because it's very long.

Sorry.

[the phantom]

Around dinner time, the villagers gathered in the tavern.

Firefoot and Lhuna walked in with a bowl containing some strange sort of liquid. They also were carrying a large rotten board. After everyone else had arrived, Mister Underhill staggered in carrying a large stone figure.

"So, did anyone have any luck with their project?"

"Well," said Firefoot, "I had some luck. Lhuna, the healer, helped me a bit. We found a book that said if you drop a hair from someone's arm in a brew of dandelion milk, apple juice, and shredded wolf's bane, and then pour it over a rotten board, words will appear on the board revealing any genetic secrets about the person you took the hair from."

"Wow! That's great!"

"Yeah! I say we try it- right now!"

"Woah, everyone- I don't have enough ingredients to go trying it on everyone. Dandelions aren't in season right now, and I only have twelve in my store- just enough for one bowl of the stuff."

"Well, if that's the case," said mormegil, "Then we need to first decide who our main suspect is and try the stuff on them to see if we should go ahead and lynch them."

"Well, hold on a minute there!" cut in Boromir. "First let's find out what sort of success Formendacil and Underhill had with their projects."

Formendacil slumped down in his chair. "I analyzed every toilet in town, and I couldn't find any unusual droppings. Apparently, when wolves are in their human form all of their functions are completely human."

"How about you, Underhill?" asked Fea, staring at the large stone figure he had carried into the tavern. The stone was carved in the shape of a man sitting cross-legged with his hands resting in his lap.

"I think making the type of watch stone that I promised earlier is a bit beyond my skill," replied Mister Underhill.

"So, you don't think that there watch stone will come to life to fight wolves and yell out an alert?" questioned Enca.

"No."

"Then what does it do?"

"Well... this is kind of embarrassing, but... whenever someone nearby says 'Werewolf'..."

Suddenly the watch stone stood up and began the most ridiculous dance. Mister Underhill covered his face. Then the stone started yodeling. Everyone in the room covered their ears and began filing out of the door, but as soon as it had started, it stopped. The figure closed its mouth and sat down.

"So," said the guy who be short, "Your figure there doesn't fight Wer-, umm, I mean wolves, it just sings and dances when someone says it?"

"Says what?"

"You know- it."

"Aahh- he said the word!" cried a passing Knight Who Says Ni.

"Well, it looks like Firefoot's serum is the only thing we have to work with," said Esty. "Oh well. So- who should we test it on?"

Several names were said, but more people said Formendacil than any other name.

"All right then, Formendacil, come over here and sit by me so I can take one of your hairs," said Lhuna.

Formendacil looked none to pleased, but he complied.

After Lhuna and Firefoot had taken the hair and mixed it with the brew, Lhuna grabbed the rotten board and set it on the table. Firefoot poured the contents of the bowl onto the board.

"Okay- let's see if it reveals Formendacil's genetics like it said."

As the astonished villagers looked on, words began to appear on the wood.

"They're really faint! Can anyone make out what they say?!"

"I think I can!" cried Fea, who had very sharp eyes. "It says 'If you look closely at Formendacil, you will find micro elf dna'."

"What?"

"I'm not elvish," said Formendacil.

"Are you sure?"

"Um, do I look like I have elvish blood?" asked the very homely gong farmer.

"I suppose not."

Everyone sighed.

"So, the brew is worthless! It didn't tell us anything!" complained Boromir.

"Wait!" cried Fea, "More words are appearing!"

This time, everyone could read the words- "PS- he's also a wolf".

"KILL HIM!!!" yelled Boromir. All of the villagers grabbed the closest heavy object they could find.

Formendacil jumped onto the table and snarled at the villagers. He had been found out, but he was determined to either escape or take one of the villagers with him. His body quickly changed into its wolf form.

"Touch me and your healer is dead!" growled Formendacil as he plucked Lhunardawen from her seat and held her high above his head. But the villagers did not heed his words. They rushed him from all sides, swinging chairs, knives, candlesticks, and other various items.

Formendacil howled in pain as a knife pierced his foot. He kicked out at the villagers and flung Lhuna across the room. Her neck snapped as she hit the wall head first.

"I'll kill you all!" yelled Formendacil as he leaped off the table onto morm and Fea, knocking them to the floor. As he raised his hands to strike them, Boromir jumped at him from behind and drove his long dagger into Formendacil's skull.

The werewolf fell to the floor with a thud.

"HA!" shouted Boromir, "I finally got him!! I TOLD you he was a Werewolf!"

Fea and Enca hugged. TGWBS high fived Esty. Mister Underhill's watch stone danced and yodeled.

Living-

mormegil (messenger)
the guy who be short (dwarf)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling wolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by wolves on Night 3)
Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)


Score: Villagers- 7, Werewolves- 1

It is now night. If you post on this thread during the night I will kill you.

Wolf, Seer- I need your picks by 12:30 AM EST.

[the phantom]

Sauron was in a foul mood. He knew that the villagers of Erbar Telamarth were a talented bunch, but he never expected to be down to his last wolf by the end of Day 3.

Sauron knew that this night could very well be his wolf's last chance to kill, so he wanted to make sure his wolf made as damaging a kill as possible. He had been deep in thought for the entire night, strenuously searching for the best possible target.

And now, the search was over. Sauron had found his target.

No wonder this village has been tough he thought. Erbar Telamarth has a Seer.

Sauron stood and faced the village. He remained rooted in place, completely still, for half an hour. A distant howl suddenly interrupted the silence. Sauron lowered himself onto his throne and smiled devilishly.

They don't have a Seer any more!

[the phantom]

That morning, Firefoot did not show up at the tavern. Everyone knew what that meant.

Mister Underhill and the guy who be short were sent to Firefoot's cottage to see if there were any clues there to help identify the final wolf. Most of the villagers, however, figured all the two would find would be a corpse.

"What did you find?!" burst out Esty as the pair entered the tavern.

"It wasn't a pretty sight," said Underhill.

"You can say that again," added TGWBS. "It seems that she was lying in her bed when the beast laid hold of her. Judging by the damage to her and the things around the house, I'd say that the wolf yanked her out of bed by the ankles and swung her around, bashing her head against the walls and furniture. And then it appears that the creature slashed her with its claws and beat her with its fists, though it was likely she was already dead. Last of all, the foul demon snapped her in half over its knee, stuffed her into her cupboard, and stuck knives into her eyes."

Many of the villagers didn't hear the last part, as they had covered their ears halfway through the horrific report. Boromir, who had listened to the whole thing, wondered aloud, "Why was the wolf so incredibly vicious this time? Is it simply angry about losing its comrades, or did it particularly dislike Firefoot?"

"I was about to ask the same thing," added mormegil.

"Both reasons, most likely," answered Mister Underhill. "TGWBS and I found several interesting books and journals in Firefoot's house, and all were marked with the same symbol- an eye ringed with stars and crescent moons. The symbol was also tattooed on her back just below her neck."

"Just a minute, here!" exclaimed Fea. "Are you telling us that-"

"-Firefoot was a seer?!" finished Enca.

Mister Underhill and the guy who be short nodded.

Living-

mormegil (messenger)
the guy who be short (dwarf)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling Werewolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by Werewolves on Night 3)
Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)
Firefoot (Seer- slashed, beaten, stabbed, and snapped in half by Werewolf on Night 4)


Score: Villagers- 6, Werewolves- 1

The following villagers have informed me that their participation will be somewhat limited today- Encaitare will not be present until around 5 PM EST.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

All I can say right now is that we ought to take a peek at Firefoot's most recent accusations and defenses, as they are the up-to-date Seer-speak.
Obviously she believed in Weredacil's guilt. I'm assuming that means he was one of her dreams, as he held a constant place in her suspicions through her entire life here. She also seems to have dreamt of me, mentioning Day 2 that her suspicion of me was lessening (I'm assuming she dreamt after this) and on Day 3 agreeing with morm about how I was set up. I also think that she dreamt about Esty, having defended her three days solid.

I'm a bit nervous of TGWBS right now, given her two-day-straight suspicion of him. I remain nervous of Underhill, especially based on Formendacil's insistence on him. I wouldn't put it past the two to do something of that nature. I know I said I'd try to stop thinking in terms of what I'd do, but it's the first thing that springs to mind.

Also, Boromir, who continuously voted Weremendacil while the rest of us weren't all that worked up about it. Why, Boromir, did you know to vote for him?

Basically what I'm asking of you guys is this: Boro, Underhill, and TGWBS, please defend yourself to the village.

I'm posting this now because I'm currently awake, but as far as I know, I won't be able to post again until about 3:30 tomorrow afternoon. I wanted to make sure my thoughts were available before then.

[mormegil]

Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now.

This was her last post about Mister Underhill it would seem to say that he's innocent and that she dreamt of him. I am willing to give this to him at this time even though I wish I known this yesterday because I would have trusted him to help me at the end, as it was I didn't and wanted either him or Encai lynched. I am so glad we got a wolf but I still am worried about Encai.

Encai - She's on my suspect list, though I don't think I'll be voting for her today. I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow, though, probably post by post as has been done with Esty and Formen. I haven't seen anything that would strongly suggest her guilt, though closer analysis might show something.

Now this would suggest to me that Firefoot has not dreamt of Encai but was in process tonight. Did Encai interupt that dream? My suspicion still lies heavily upon her.

Esty - Despite my lengthy accusation/analysis of her, I'm not convinced of her guilt at all. I'm currently leaning towards innocence, though I do have concerns about her which I have already stated

It would seem there was no dream here either. But I don't think Firefoot was overly concerned of her despite her lengthy analysis of her. Basically the same is said of Fea, TGWBS, and Boromir.

Mormegil - I'm about 98% confident of his innocence. I have no reason to suspect him, as his arguments and suspects have made sense to me, even when viewed from a critical eye.

I didn't perceive this at the time but her comment about a critical eye would seem to indicate that she did dream of me early on but was reticent about saying she thinks I'm 100% innocent, trying to protect her identity. Now you can believe what you like about me but I think between this and my vote for Cailin and "damning" testimony of Formendacil we can safely assume I am innocent.

Currently the village should believe that Mister Underhill and I are innocent that leaves 5 others who are still suspect. Now we do not have any gifted left to help us out so it's left to us alone to rid us. Now we really need to kill the remaining wolf today to eliminate the risk of the cursed being attacked and also saving lives.

I just found another post the would implicate Mister Underhill's innocence.

Post 210

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

It seems that she dreamt of him the night before and this in concert with what I already presented makes him 99.999% innocent to me.

I think I shall do a further analysis of all Firefoot had to say but not currently. Of the other five I would rank them thusly in order of suspicion

Encai
Feanor/TGWBS
Boromir
Esty

One thing that I would like to hear from Boromir is what was the comment about if you die Encai will certainly die too? Please explain.

Edit: cross post with Fea....Why did you forget Encai? Also I think Underhill is cleared by what I've said. It's nice to know that we can't have 2 wolves working together now though.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Alas that our Seer Firefoot was found out and killed after only a few nights of dreams! We could have used her in-sight-full help longer. It is good that a wolf, Formendacil, was lynched, though. I will go back for a thorough analysis later on, but here are my first, spontaneous thoughts.

Lhuna, poor innocent, has also died; however, since she was on several suspect lists, that does narrow the search down. Going back to my own theory, that one of the voters for Anguirel was a wolf, that means a choice between two people, since the other two are gone. I never considered Underhill particularly suspicious, and I do so even less now. He hasn't been able to participate as actively as he would like to, and I think that shows that he is not a wolf. Judging from my past experience with him as a member of the Downs administration, I would say that he would find a way, even under difficult circumstances, to do his "duty" if he had such an important, active role.

That leaves Encaitare, and she is still top on my list of suspects. I must say, the arguments of those who spoke against Formendacil convinced me of his guilt, although I was chasing a different wolf. Boromir spoke against him very convincingly, voting for him all three times, and the second name he has mentioned as a suspect is Enca. Though I'm not trusting anyone 100%, the fact that he was right on Formy does make me inclined to listen to what he says. He also suggested that Fea was being set up by the wolves, a possibility I want to examine more closely as well.

Seven remain, one is a wolf - unless we don't lynch her/him before a cursed villager adds to the werewolf ranks. :eek:

[the guy who be short]

Firefoot... Seer? :eek: That was completely unexpected.

Here's what I thought: Boromir was the Seer. He dreamt of Formendacil on Day 1. He was kept alive incase he was the Seer, as it would incriminate Form. However, with Form's death, he would be killed so he could not name more innocents or the other wolf.

Now that we know Boromir isn't the Seer... how did you know about Form? That's uncanny. And suspicious.

I was quite hoping a Boro-Seer would die tonight, not out of any lycanthropic intentions, but due to the fact that we'd still have two definite innocents left - morm and Firefoot. Unfortunately, that it down to one. Once morm is dead, we enter a danger zone where lupine influence is magnified. That means we have to try our hardest to catch a wolf today, as it will only get harder once morm is dead.

Innocents:
mormegil
the guy who be short

Wolves?:
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

That's the only thing absolute in my mind right now. I'd kick myself if Esty were a wolf, but there's a tiny chance of her guilt, so I'm including her on the wolf list anyway. That leaves me four suspects.

Today I shall go over all Firefoot has said. I want to find out who she dreamt of each night.

Form's posts shall also be analyzed.

Voting patterns will be produced as per usual.

Things wont necessarily happen in that order.

TGWBS, please defend yourself to the villageI'm far too helpful, if consistently mistaken, to be a Wolf. :D

[the guy who be short]

DAY ONE:
Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

DAY TWO:
Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

DAY THREE:
Lhuna – 1 (TGWBS 1)
Formendacil 3 – (Boromir 2, Firefoot 5, Mister Underhill 8)
Fea – 1 (Formendacil 3)
Boromir - 1 (Encaitare 4)
Encaitare - 1 (Esty 6, mormegil 9)
Mister Underhill - 1 (Feanor 7)

So, to go by votes:

Formendacil votes Mr U two days in a row.

On the last day, Mr U votes Form, but Form does not vote Mr U. Why? I wouldn't put it past them to be a wolvish duo seeking to sow confusion. (Wow, I agree with Fea...)

Yesterday, Form voted for Fea. Fea voted Mr U.


Let me stop there. My brain is exploding. Formen-Underhill? Formen-Fea organising a conspiracy aganst Mr U? Formen-Boro planning Boro's apparent innocence? These are the three things most apparent to me, and I can't decide on one.

Why do people suspect Enca again? Esty and her look cleanest to me.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Firefoot... Seer? :eek: That was completely unexpected.

Here's what I thought: Boromir was the Seer.

I thought the same, tgwbs, because he spoke so definitely about his suspicion of Formendacil. However, he isn't, and that leaves a whole different interpretation of the same facts wide open. What if Boromir is the remaining wolf, who deliberately voted for Formy, a known wolf, all along to get us to trust him? Then his accusation of Enca would be a false trail! I know that goes against my own premise of the four who voted for Anguirel, but as I don't know definitely who's innocent or guilty, anything is possible.

I still have to go through Firefoot's posts and find out what clues there are to her being a Seer. How could the wolf recognize her?

[the guy who be short]

I too will be going through her posts. However, I find it likely that the wolf had no idea she was the Seer - Firefoot, morm and LMP were the Three Angels, so to speak, whom nobody suspected. With LMP gone, either Firefoot or morm was going to die last night. The Wolf just got lucky.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I think it very likely that the wolf was after the seer - I would be, if I were a wolf! After all, the other gifted villagers were taken care of, and if the seer had come out with information, she would have been dangerous. This makes me wonder all the more whether Boromir was trying to play with our minds by posing as the seer, either to draw out the real one or to get the rest of us to gang up on an innocent villager.

[mormegil]

Okay I'm back and though I was in bed I slept very little :rolleyes: I spent some time thinking and I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!

[Boromir88]

On how I knew Formendacil was a wolf...

Well, I didn't really "know" per se, but I had a strong feeling. My Day 1 vote was more or less just random. Day 2, I didn't think Shelob was guilty and no one really changed my mind as to who a wolf was, so I stuck with Formendacil. Day 3, I believed (and I hope he doesn't mind) mormegil was the Seer. One because he did catch onto Cailin, and two he came strong after Formendacil. So I believed he was the Seer and dreamed of Formendacil which kept me to stick with Formendacil.

As I said before, go ahead and lynch me Estelyn, it'll just be a wasted day and I can't believe this village is so stupid to still consider me a wolf. As of right now I stand by that Enca is the last wolf, who tried to turn voting against me yesterday.

Honestly, you have to ask yourself would a wolf vote for another wolf 3 straight days and be so vital in a fellow wolf downfall? Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy.

Estelyn is now popping into my head as another wolf. Who I think is trying to conjure up a theory to get me hanged, because I was so crucial in another wolf's demise perhaps?

I'll have you know that I haven't been wrong yet, only on the fact that I believed mormegil was the Seer, and not Firefoot. Which might seem incriminating to some extent, but if you want to get rid of someone who is a good judge on who's innocent and who's not, then it's your own loss.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What if Boromir is the remaining wolf, who deliberately voted for Formy, a known wolf, all along to get us to trust him? *cough* Then I'd have been right all along with my Boromir bashing? I'd only just begun to think that he was the Seer based on his insistence at Weremendacil. But then again, I was a little worried about his talk about never assuming the innocence of anybody, and yet saying that he pretty much trusted the Innocent Three. Way to be a hypocrite, no?


Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now.
This was her last post about Mister Underhill it would seem to say that he's innocent and that she dreamt of him. Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him.

Edit: cross post with Fea....Why did you forget Encai? Also I think Underhill is cleared by what I've said. It's nice to know that we can't have 2 wolves working together now though.Because it was almost 2:00 AM? Okay, Encai: Day One: votes innocent (Ang), suspects guilty (Cailin), gives decent strategy. Day Two: votes innocent (Shelob) which saves me, suspects innocent plus two unknowns. Day Three: votes Boromir, who may or may not be a really ballsy wolf. The biggest thing to bother me about Encai is that she saved me. I have no idea why she did it. I won't deny being relieved about it, because who actually wants to die in these villages? When you die, your spirit watches helpless as the village stumbles around, and the worst thing is, usually the second you die, you know who at least one wolf is.

Here's Firefoot's say on the matter: she didn't dream of Encai. "I haven't seen anything to strongly suggest her guilt" which means she hadn't dreamt yet and "I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow" which I take to mean she planned on it.

What's to be said? She makes me nervous, but I do feel like she was set up. I'm not so sure that there isn't something in the Fea/Encai theory This changed my mind. I don't think she dreamt of me, or she'd have said "As I'm seeing evidence that Fea might have been set up, I think this theory is a bit far-fetched" or something like that. I love how she uses the word see. I didn't notice it until I started looking for it. Could somebody be a dove and find all of her uses of it while I'm away at my [wenching] classes? I won't be back until mid-afternoon, like I mentioned before I went to bed. I'm surprised I woke up early enough to post this, to be honeset.

EDIT: cross-post with Boromir.

Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy.
Surely everyone's heard by now that I'm "Bonkers as Conkers"? Crazy works. Especially after logic fails.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!

I also have a strategy idea, morm, and remembering the one you had one Day, it could be that we're thinking along the same lines. I'm not sure how wise it is to come out early with it, so I'm waiting a bit as well.

In the meantime, I'd like to present my percentage list of the remaining players:

100% innocent - me (The only one of whom I absolutely know)

90% innocent - Underhillo (reasons given above)

80% innocent - tgwbs (for seemingly good reasoning so far)

80% innocent - mormegil (also for seemingly good reasoning so far)

50% innocent/guilty - Fea (just because she's too confusing to get a grasp on)

very suspicious - Encaitare (for the reasons I gave yesterDay)

highly suspicious - Boromir88 (for the reasons given toDay)


more to come...

[Boromir88]

Ok some further thoughts...

I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me. She never jumped onto the growing suspicion of me, just said I was playing stupidly and not focusing on the task. Also, I was under much suspicion under Day 1, it would be logical to assume that either Day 2, or 3 she dreamed of me.

Sorry for the let down in everyone thinking I was the Seer. If it makes any sense I was trying to disguise myself as the Seer, to sort of shield the real Seer (who I thought was definitely mormegil and I can see that was wrong). I had put my life on the line thinking that mormegil was the Seer and that he dreamed of Formendacil. Basically thinking if Form's a wolf, I'm innocent, if not I'm a dead man. But no matter what I do it just seems like no one takes my innocence.

[Boromir88]

Hmm, I seem to be cross-posting with Estelyn who thinks I'm guilty for some reason?

Need I say I brought down a wolf, while you were crucial in Shelob's lynching.

Actually, I'm almost about to say just lynch me, so I'll be out of your hair if no one takes my innocence. I'm growing more and more suspicious of Estelyn, who sees that I'm a threat to wolves and wants to get rid of me. So, hey lynch me, but who here has been the best judge on who's innocent and who's a wolf? But, lynch me, if that's what you guys want, I can think of no other way to get through to you people that I'm gosh darn innocent here.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all. I would be a poor player (and I hope that despite being a first time gamer here, I'm not stupid) if I took your words at face value. You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Yes, I was involved in Shelob's lynching, but at that time (second day, with little evidence to go on) I thought I had reason to suspect her. The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

[mormegil]

This was her last post about Mister Underhill it would seem to say that he's innocent and that she dreamt of him. Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him

Feanor I'm not sure why you are being so obtuse but please read this again posted by Firefoot in post 210

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

I believe this was her first post of the day and up until this point she strongly suspected Mister Underhill but now she doesn't suspect him much? Why the sudden change? She still suspects Formendacil though. My theory after quickly reading all of her posts is that Night 1 she dreamt of me, Night 2 Formendacil and Night 3 Mister Underhill. It would make sense if you read her post to think of her dreams as those people in that order. So no I do not believe, as you do now too, that she dreamt of you.

My plan will be rolled out shortly and I believe, if implemented, will be a great value to the village.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me.
I disagree entirely. She said that either you're playing a bold game of wolf or you're playing stupidly as an innocent. That either, along with giving 50% likelihood of you being lupine means that there was no dream, or she'd have leant one way or the other.

Though you guys are being tight-lipped about your plan, here's mine: double-lynch Boromir and Encai. The two top suspects, from what I see. If if we're wrong on both, there will be enough villagers left to still have survival chances. Mind you, I think one of the two is a wolf... but I could always be wrong. I keep doing that these days.

Off to the Psychology of Wenching. Ta ta.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all.
I'm grateful for the compliment. I'll have you know I tell it like it is. I tell you what I think. You can either take what I say and accept it or not. I can say it's your own loss (unless you're the last wolf) if I'm lynched.
You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!
Bringing down another wolf, if anything isn't good enough?

Enough with these crazy and ludicrous theories about wolves backstabbing eachother. Sometimes the facts are right in front of your face and you're too busy concentrating on wild and whacky theories to see who the real villains are.
The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)
Or a good judge of character and what werewolves do.

I didn't think Anguirel and Eomer were wolves even when voting for me, because wolves don't typically vote early and Anguirel just picked a random person who happened to be me and on Day 1, that's really all you can do.

I didn't think Shelob or Lhuna were wolves because they were quiet, and wolves aren't usually quiet. I've learned not to vote for quiet people. You got to watch out for the ones that don't say a lot, but say a good amount and try to mold opinion or bandwagon. And often flip-flop to adjust to the public opinion.

I think Fea is being set up. While it's possible that she may be a wolf doing a bold bluff wolves love to set people up. As they tried to do on Day 1 to me. (by killing Eomer). I think Fea is being set up because coming into the closing of the day her name was being thrown in there with Encai's and she'd be an easy target to go after the next day. Luckily needless to say, I stepped up and said she was being set up. (Though again she still may be a wolf).
You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.
Umm...maybe because I'm innocent and as far as I'm concerned have been the best judge to who's a wolf and who's not.

Having said all this, I'm now cooled in my suspicion of Estelyn. Her concerns seem geniune to me. I will give you this, crazy theories are fun to think of, and trying to catch a bluff, but going with your gut feeling and the obvious "wolf" traits is what gets the villagers to victory.

[the guy who be short]

In his first few posts Formy argues against morm and his strategies. I count this as further proof of morm's innocence.

He then goes on to say he has no reason to suspect anybody, but for lack of any evidence, will suspect Ang, LMP and morm. Again, morm is lumped with two innocents.

On the first Day he votes for Mr U. I'm willing to interpret this as meaning Mr U isn't a wolf.

It is difficult to analyse Formen's first long post. It more or less says "I think everybody is innocent."Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...It's hard to know what to make of this. I am quite sold on the Borowolf theory now, and that looks like Formen is trying to mention Boro without being suspicious enough to lynch him.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.I'm becoming more and more certain of Mr U's innocence.

Fea and Mister Underhill as the most likely suspectsFea... innocent? :eek:

The really difficult thing about analysing anything Form says is his ambiguity. He claims somebody looks suspicious for one reason, but then innocent for another.

Wolves?:
Fea

Probably Wolves?:
Mister Underhill,
Encaitare

Relatively Neutral?
Lhunardawen,
Boromir,
Estelyn,
TGWBS,

Mostly Innocent:
Firefoot,
MormegilMaybe I'm just looking for it, but I keep seeing all this as pointing to Boro's wolvery. It's possible that Enca could be the other wolf, but I doubt it is Fea or Mr U.

He votes for Fea, making her seem innocent again.


That was incredibly ambiguous. Now, as I see it, either Fea is a cunning wolf, Boro is a cunning wolf, or Enca is a wolf. Mr U I doubt.

[Boromir88]

One thing that I would like to hear from Boromir is what was the comment about if you die Encai will certainly die too? Please explain.~mormegil
I was more kidding. On Day 1 Anguirel and Eomer both voted for me. Anguirel was hanged, Eomer was killed. So I went along and just said people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do.

Fea, I disagree with the double-lynching. One because, I'm not a wolf. Two, Encai who I think is the most wolfish one may not be. We have a strong advantage 6-1, if we do a double lynching of myself and Encai by the next day the villagers will be up 3-1. Still an advantage but if you don't catch that last wolf, it's over, villagers lose. No, a double-lynching is something I think a wolf would want in this situation.

Hey, everyone thinks I'm a wolf. It's funny how morm, firefoot, lmp find a wolf and they're praised as saviours. I catch a wolf and it would make me a backstabber to Formendacil, if I was a wolf. I'm going to say...LYNCH ME, so I'm out of everyone's problems, and you can get to see who the real wolves are. I do say I strongly disagree with Fea's plan of a double-lynching.

[the guy who be short]

I agree with Feanor's plan.

[mormegil]

Boromir I hope I can believe you that you were trying to pretend to be the seer, I for one bought into it. I think the reason I bought into it though was because I believed Encai to be guilty, seemingly the wolf did not which, if you are innocent, would have a clearing effect upon Encai if you follow me.

My plan is simple and it follows along with what Fea said, I think we should do a double lynching today orchestrated by Mister Underhill and me. I use us for two reasons we are innocent and live in areas that allow us to vote the last minute. I would recommend that we choose two people and get them lynched together. I use this strategy because now that there aren't any gifteds left it's most likely that known innocents will die next that is Mister Underhill and me. So we need to capitalize on these two nights where we will have innocents with us. We are currently 7 villagers 2 known innocents so 5 total if we kill two that happen to not be a wolf we will be down to 4 and can do a possible double lynching the next day. We may actually be able to spot the wolf trying to influence the vote or abstain. This is our best shot.

Now it is important that we pick correctly today so as to avoid a difficult situation tomorrow. As for myself I am convinced of Underhill's innocence and it will be difficult to convince me otherwise.

[Boromir88]

No no no, Fea's plan can be a total disaster. I'm certainly not a wolf. Encai may be but she may not be. If she isn't entering tomorrow you're up 3-1, don't catch a wolf then it's over. We have to realize if neither of us our wolves you have one more day to find who the wolf is. If you don't do it YOU LOSE! Lynch me today and you get an extra day to see who the lone wolf is.

If you lynch me today, tomorrow you'll be up 4-1 and have another day to find who the wolves are. So again, I sacrifice myself, because no one seems to think I'm innocent and the only way to get through you knuckle-heads will be my death. So lynch me, and you have an extra day to find out who the real wolf is.

[the guy who be short]

I'm willing to go with that. I also support Fea's two suspects, namely, Boromir and Encai.

[mormegil]

Well let it be said though that while we want to catch the wolf in this double lynching attempt at least one innocent will die. This means that any true innocent should be willing to give his/her life for the good of the village. I'm not sure I agree with those two in conjunction. I see it as if Encai is innocent Boro could be a wolf and therefore lynched the next day and vice versa too. Now I would like to see Fea or TGWBS on the list too or possibly Esty.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to come flat out I will do whatever it takes to stop a double-lynching, unless someone here can convince me otherwise.

Ok, so let's say Encai's a wolf, and we do the double lynching we win! Yay!

But let's take the consequences and think if she isn't. Ok, so right now it's me and Encai. If Encai's not a wolf you will be down, 3-1, getting one more day to catch a wolf.

Which may seem easy to go after, but it could be more difficult then you think. Who would be the last wolf if Encai doesnt' turn out to be. Fea, the one who proposed the double-lynching? Morm or tgwbs who jumped onto the idea? See what I'm saying. There's disaster just simply waiting if there's a double-lynching. We have a strong advantage in numbers, let's keep it that way.

I will sacrifice myself, if so desired, so you guys can finally see that I'm innocent, and all of you are fooled by your crazy theories of my williness.

[Mister Underhill]

Day One

1. Anguirel - B88
2. Esty - Shelob (innocent)
3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent)
4. (W) Cailin - Eomer (Hunter)
5. Eomer - B88
6. B88 - Form (W)
7. (W) Form - Mr. U
8. Shelob - Anguirel (innocent)
9. mormegil - Cailin (W)
10. Firefoot - Cailin (W)
11. lmp - Cailin (W)
12. Enca - Anguirel (innocent)
13. Mr. U - Anguirel (innocent)
14. Fea - B88
15. Lhuna - Anguirel (innocent)


Day Two

1. Lhuna - Mr. U
2. Shelob - Lhuna (innocent)
3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent)
4. B88 - Form (W)
5. Esty - Shelob (innocent)
6. Fea - lmp (Ranger)
7. morm - Fea
8. (W) Form - Mr. U
9. Firefoot - Shelob (innocent)
10. Mr. U - Fea
11. lmp - Fea
12. Enca - Shelob (innocent)


Day Three

1. tgwbs - Lhuna (innocent)
2. B88 - Form (W)
3. (W) Form - Fea
4. Enca - B88
5. Firefoot - Form (W)
6. Esty - Enca
7. Fea - Mr. U
8. Mr. U - Form (W)
9. morm - Enca

Here's the voting order and known roles where appropriate. It goes without saying that I know I'm innocent here, but I've only listed roles that are undisputably known by the death of the villager.

Formendacil, a known wolf, voted for me twice and only backed off when it seemed some momentum was building against me. The way I read this is that he helped lead the building of suspicion of me over the first two days, then didn't want to be linked to lynching an innocent if I went down on the third day. Is his vote for Fea significant? People were backing off of Fea all around, so this was a pretty safe vote. He could have cast it towards a fellow wolf to provide cover for them both. Or alternatively, it might have been a safe vote for an innocent who has been dogged by suspicion. Fea, as ever, is shrouded in controversy and confusion. I'll get back to her presently.

tgwbs has had the misfortune of having voted for a known innocent three days running. That should bring him up on anyone's radar. Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here. It's decent strategy for a wolf to vote early to avoid being involved in controversial voting decisions. Not sure what to make of this, but I haven't been looking too closely at tg and now I'm thinking that I should. Even if he's innocent, he's been consistently wrong, which means we ought to consider clearing his top suspect, Boromir.

Esty's had a shaky time of it, too, but overall I haven't seen much to suspect in her. I have to reciprocate her comments on me -- I have a feeling she'd be more involved if she were a wolf. She's been off most people's radar for most of the game, which makes me a little uneasy, but I've seen in her posts echoes of my own confusion as a n00b villager, so she remains low on my list.

morm: Pretty sure he's innocent. Like Boromir, I had him pegged on Day Two as the Seer.

...which leads me to buy into Boromir's story. If he was posing as the Seer to screen morm, it worked; by the end of Day Three, I had changed my mind and thought he was the Seer. Could this all be a bluff? Maybe. But for now his story rings true to me.

Fea's back at the top of my watch-list again. I backed off of her early on Day Three in part because I thought morm was the Seer, and he had backed off of her (#211). She's the only villager who has voted for a gifted (that we know of), and her other votes have been relatively safe bandwagon votes. Also notably cast an important vote on Day One and has seemingly been laying low voting-wise since then. She's accusing me still when the evidence is finally starting to vindicate me. She's also reaching hard to convince us that Firefoot dreamed of her, when Firefoot's comments hardly seem conclusive:

Post #252 -- Of a list of three, including Fea, who had received votes: 'I could (at least theoretically) see myself voting for any of those three (or others) at this point.' See also post #256, especially a mention of Fea in her Lhuna comments: 'I know [Lhuna] lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way.' On their own, both comments are pretty innocuous, but why would she cast even offhand suspicion on someone she knew to be innocent? Fea, you may be innocent, but my read on Firefoot's comments is that she did not dream of you.

Enca is also still a top suspect. She has voted for two known innocents and the one villager who pegged a wolf on all three of his votes. Cast the controversial vote on Day One that has made her a suspect ever since.

Right now, Fea and Enca top my watch-list.

I'd like to get a closer look at tgwbs.

**Not quite an edit, but while I've been composing this, the posts have been flying. Boromir has a point about the double-lynching, but on the other hand, if we kill an innocent we narrow down the chances of the wolf getting the cursed villager tonight. Would we know if the cursed villager had already been lynched, or can we assume he or she is still among us? Maybe a more experienced villager can help me out here.

My top suspects remain Enca and Fea. Boromir is a maybe, but right now, as I said above, his story rings true. I'd need more convincing to go for him and leave one of the other two alive if we want to try to orchestrate the double-L -- which I'm also not completely convinced is the best plan.

[mormegil]

No we don't know if the cursed villager has been lynched yet. The only way we know the cursed villager has been killed is if the wolves kill him.

If I were to pick who to double lynch I would definately choose Fea and then either Encai or TGWBS.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

She's the only villager who has voted for a gifted (that we know of),
I explained exactly what my suspicions of LMP were before and when I voted. My word stands.

and her other votes have been relatively safe bandwagon votes.
Hey, hey, hey, I started those bandwagons! You can't accuse me for jumping onto a safe-spot when I was the one insisting that we shouldn't drop our suspicions of people so easily! You can't claim me for hiding out in safety when I was bright and early trying to convince people to look harder on B88, and later on, to notice the sheer volume of suspicion against Underhill. Day three, I was the only one to vote Underhill. That's not bandwagoning, if you're the only one voting. I'll readily admit that I really wanted B88 dead on Day one, which is why I tied that vote. I was really annoyed when Lhuna showed up and broke the tie, because it meant that the one person I was most worried about was still alive. But leading a charge doesn't count as joining a crusade already in progress. Surely you know that.

seemingly been laying low voting-wise since then
Seeming though it may be, two votes were for those that I thoroughly suspected, one was early because I had obscene amounts of [wenching] homework to do that I didn't actually ever get finished (why don't you try reading a hundred pages out of a Japanese novel, reading twenty pages of a psych review, and then writing a three page paper on it in a format you've never used, all in one night, and see how likely you are to get back on the internet before 1:30 AM).

She's accusing me still when the evidence is finally starting to vindicate me.
Sure I am. I'm just like that. I like to be an individual, you know? Surely you don't expect me to continuously follow the crowd? If I did that, you'd cry wolf. I decided long ago that catering to the crowd's whims doesn't help anybody, so I may as well try and get lynched whoever I most want dead.

She's also reaching hard to convince us that Firefoot dreamed of her, when Firefoot's comments hardly seem conclusive:
Hold up, I posted already that I changed my mind due to something I hadn't read closely enough before. I'm certain I wasn't dreamt of given her ambiguity of phrasiology.

Would we know if the cursed villager had already been lynched, or can we assume he or she is still among us? Maybe a more experienced villager can help me out here.
The villager is either still alive, or has already been lynched. If the wolves get him/her, s/he turns into another wolf. If we lynch, we don't know 'til the end whether or not s/he still lives.

If I were to pick who to double lynch I would definately choose Fea and then either Encai or TGWBS.
Hey, what ever happened to "it was a set up" and "I'm leaning toward her innocence"? I'd like to know what changed your mind.

PS: this post, though unexpected, comes from my teacher cancelling one of my classes. It gave me a random hour that I'm not at all opposed to.

[mormegil]

Yes Fea but still something isn't sitting right and you're our resident enigma and finding out for sure would clear up some air.

Edit: I might add Fea that sometimes going with the crowd is helpful when the plan is good.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, since the double lynching idea has been outed now, let me say that I was thinking the same thing. I have two top suspects, Boro and Enca. One of them is innocent for sure, yes, but the advantage of a double lynching is that we have a double chance of getting the wolf before s/he can get the cursed villager (if still around - uncertain factor). There are seven of us, so we shall have to get at least two votes for both of them, in which case the other three villagers should vote singly for someone else, or if we can get six to vote on two, we'd have three votes each. Should someone come in at the very end to break the tie, s/he would be very suspicious, no? Oh, and even if we have three people with two votes each, the first and last of them would be lynched...

[mormegil]

I've got a good idea that could be worth trying. With this list of remaining villagers (copied from Phantom's list)

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

We should each do an individual analysis of the person below you. That would mean that I do one for TGWBS and he does Encai and so on until Mister Underhill does one for me. Since we only have one wolf there is no chance of a wolf analyzing the other wolf. This would spread out the work so nobody is doing too much. With our analysis be sure to include Firefoot's ideas.

Is everybody for it?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm for it, though our Seer also analyzed and came up clear for Esty. Would you like me still to analyze her? I'll do it, but it won't be until later, as I have to leave now.

[Boromir88]

I'd like to point out tgwbs defended Formendacil and questioned mormegil hard as to why he was so suspicious of Formendacil. And Formendacil slightly defended tgwbs. Here's a few posts I find rather disturbing from tgwbs.
Shelob innocent. Oh well.
Post 206.
1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent....
Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil
Post 215
the guy who be short: Also seems fairly innocent. Not as "proven" innocent as the Innocent Three (I guess that should be the Innocent Two now), but fairly innocent.~Formendacil, post 227
That's what I felt about Shelob... unfortunately, there are time constraints just at the moment, though I shall return later. Can you point to actual shifts Formen has made?~tgwbs, post 232

Then his vote seems like a throw-away and votes for Lhuna, another innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Sounds like a good idea, morm - we have enough work cut out for us already! I'll go back and analyze Underhill's posts bit by bit, though I have already stated my conviction that he is very likely innocent.

[Boromir88]

morm, I can go through and "analyze" fea. For an overview, I stick by Fea as being set up. Well looking through posts of Formendacil and tgwbs, Formendacil labeled Fea as a wolf. I think this speaks to the fact that the wolves were trying to set her up and get her lynched.

[the guy who be short]

Is everybody for it?No. Enca wont be back until after I've made my vote and gone to sleep, and I suspect Esty too will be desirous of sleep tonight.

Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here.Esty and I happen to live in Europe... It's either that, or waking up at 6:00am for me.

I completely understand the suspicion against me. However, just because I've been consistently wrong, doesn't mean I'll stay that way.

Now here's the deal. I'm willing to be double lynched, but toDay is our last Day with mormian input. After that, there are no known innocents.

So, I'm willing to be lynched, on these conditions:

Esty and mormegil are recognised as innocents.

Encaitare is lynched with me.

If Enca is not a wolf, Fea and Boro are lynched next Day, with Esty as the final voter, if she can manage this.

Mr U or Esty - if you're wolves, I hate you. :P

[Estelyn Telcontar]

You won't have to hate me, tgwbs. Since the voting is so very crucial toDay, I will be sleeping early and getting up early to vote late. I announce this now so that all are aware of it - this is not a spontaneous decision. However, I'm still around for a couple of hours and I intend to do that analysis and to post as often as necessary. I will announce my impending absence later.

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, I've been taking a closer look at tgwbs, and I've found some stuff that jumps out at me:#67 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422758#post422758) - Now that the theatrics are comfortably over, I would like to assert that I am most definitely not a weredwarf. Hmm... not the same as saying he's not a werewolf... is he playing with us?

#83 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422795#post422795) - It is necessary that I disappear underground for some sleep in the next hour or so. We dwarves tend to turn in early, you see.

If neither Shelob nor Cailin have said something by then, I will vote for one of them. I dislike the silent.

#86 - Sorry, my mistake, Cailin has actually posted before. That makes Shelob my candidate for the day.

#94 - Esty - I base my "suspicion" of Shelob on the fact that she has not yet appeared. Voting her off, even if she is an innocent, will help in that it will remove a mysterious silent factor from the village.
Of course, if you're completely at a loss, it's always helpful getting an abacus to randomly choose somebody to kill for you. :)

Cailin - Sorry again.

#98 - [After Esty points out Lhuna's absence:] Hmm, I didn't notice Lhuna's absence. However I'm willing to put that down to time difference - seriously, that girl sleeps so late, it's like she's in another time zone.Hmm again. This series of post strikes me as a little suspicious, with all their "mistakes" -- thinking Cailin hadn't posted when she had, then "not noticing" that Lhuna hadn't posted. I'm not too thrilled with the vote based on silence either. Several players that I now trust as innocents spoke out against this thinking at the time.

Then comes this post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422816#post422816) in Mirth, in which tg links to a pic of himself as a Weredwarf (http://photobucket.com/albums/a92/airetari/). I know the short one is a joker. Is he taunting us here, or just being foolishly indiscreet?

#149 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423168#post423168) - tgwbs makes some analysis, including some definitive statements about several innocents. Time has proven him right on two out of three of those, and I trust morm, the last one on the list. What makes me nervous is how certain tg is so early in the game. Insight and a bit of recklessness, or wolfish knowledge showing?

#164 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423261#post423261) - Reassesses under the pressure of reactions to his analysis -- which makes me a bit nervous. Admits that some of his statements will make him look as though he has contracted "extreme schizophrenia". An unfortunate choice of words, or is he taunting us again?

#173 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423334#post423334) - Shorty gives all the reasons why he thinks he should vote for me, then votes for Shelob instead -- to keep a villager who was drawing a lot of suspicion alive? Hard to say.

#206 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423648#post423648) - Emphasizes that he predicted lmp's death. He says this as if it should make us trust him more, but how is this to his credit? He could easily have foreseen the death of our Ranger because he helped orchestrate it. Doesn't seem sorry about Shelob's death or his role in it: "Oh well."[/QUOTE]#215 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423668#post423668) - 1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with.
Either startlingly bad analysis or a double-bluff in item 1. What's up with "Sauce" in item 2? Another "mistake"? Either tg is not playing a very attentive game (not his reputation, from what I gather from others' posts), or he's a wolf who can't resist toying with us. Knowing his sense of humor, the latter is easily a possibility.

In 228 and 232, tg asks for more info from morm on his Form suspicion, then, less than three hours later -- and even after morm provided some explanation of his suspicions -- he abruptly declares, "I'm bored of waiting" and casts vote for Lhuna with no explanation in the vote post and not much more in previous "analysis" posts.

Well, a closer look has made me feel worse, and not better about tgwbs.

I see Fea has posted and I don't have time to reply in detail. I'll say she's right to bring me up on the Firefoot point -- I composed that before she posted "I changed my mind." I do think your assumptions in #276 about who she dreamed about were hasty though. Trying to throw us off?

I've composed this up through about #303, so some of it may not take into account what has come after. I'll post it now and then read up, or I'll be stuck composing forever...

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, caught up now -- sorry for the double-post. The investigation idea sounds good, even though I've already conducted my own look into tgwbs. I'll take a closer look at morm. He's on my most trusted list and apparently had the trust of our Seer as well, and presumably wouldn't propose a daisy-chain investigation if he had anything to hide, but who knows what closer examination will reveal?

[Mister Underhill]

Sorry, one more thing I have to address very quickly: Sure I am. I'm just like that. I like to be an individual, you know? Surely you don't expect me to continuously follow the crowd?No, not follow the crowd. But surely it seems like sound innocent strategy to work to (1) identify the Seer and follow his/her lead, and (2) being unsure of the Seer's identity, attempt to find the most innocent villagers and work with them.

Being some sort of solo-rogue-individualist villager doesn't help anyone but the wolves -- if you're a wolf, it helps sow confusion and doubt; if you're innocent, it draws suspicion on yourself and only hinders the search for the true wolves.

[the guy who be short]

Hmm again. This series of post strikes me as a little suspicious, with all their "mistakes" -- thinking Cailin hadn't posted when she had, then "not noticing" that Lhuna hadn't posted. I'm not too thrilled with the vote based on silence either. Several players that I now trust as innocents spoke out against this thinking at the time.The mistakes were due to the fact that I had much lore to investigate on the first day (ie College) which prevented my closely scrutinizing every post.

Votes based on silence are just another aspect of Werewolf infected villages that people disagree on a lot. I happen to believe that if somebody is going to be absent for prolonged periods of time, it gives nothing to work on in the future; thus, I aim to eliminate quiet people on the first Day.

#149 - tgwbs makes some analysis, including some definitive statements about several innocents. Time has proven him right on two out of three of those, and I trust morm, the last one on the list. What makes me nervous is how certain tg is so early in the game. Insight and a bit of recklessness, or wolfish knowledge showing?It was obvious from their voting. Almost everybody else, excluding Fea, reached exactly the same conclusions.

#173 - Shorty gives all the reasons why he thinks he should vote for me, then votes for Shelob instead -- to keep a villager who was drawing a lot of suspicion alive? Hard to say. Anybody who actually reads that post will notice that I was extremely unsure about who to vote for. I do not list points for lynching Mr U, then vote Shelob - the entire post shows my uncertainty concerning which one to vote for.

#206 - Emphasizes that he predicted lmp's death. He says this as if it should make us trust him more, but how is this to his credit? He could easily have foreseen the death of our Ranger because he helped orchestrate it.The point was not "to my credit." It was to make people trust morm and Firefoot.

Either startingly bad analysis or a double-bluff in item 1. What's up with "Sauce" in item 2? Another "mistake"?Startlingly bad for the former. And Boro actually did accuse Sauce to start off with. :p He got a little confused. Nice of you to bring that up though, it gives me faith in Boro again.

he abruptly declares, "I'm bored of waiting" and casts vote for Lhuna with no explanation in the vote post and not much more in previous "analysis" posts.My posts show suspicion of Lhuna from Day 2, and she was high on my list for quite a while.

Finally, in response to Weredwarvery etc, may I not have my little jokes without falling under suspicion these days? :eek:

++TGWBS

I want to be lynched with Encai, as I have stated. If Boro and Fea vote for me, I'd appreciate that (I never thought I'd say that...) Esty and Mr U can vote for Enca. Incase Enca returns and does something malicious, I'd like morm to stick around until the end.

If Enca is not a wolf, on Day Two, please lynch: Feanor, Mr Underhill. Esty should be the one keeping her vote til the end, as I trust her most out of all of you, minus morm, who would die in the Night.

[Mister Underhill]

Ai, living in a village with crazy villagers doesn't help root out the wolves. Shorty, if you know you're innocent, why vote for yourself and ask to be lynched? Why not push for the two strongest werewolf candidates?

Either this vote is as crazy and unhelpful as Anguirel offering his neck for the noose on Day One, or you're a desperate wolf trying to throw the rest of us off your scent by self-voting.

Despite my analysis of tgwbs, I was still leaning towards Enca and Fea as the most likely wolf candidates. Now I don't know what to think.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't do that!!!!!!!!! Don't waste a perfectly good vote on someone who's not high on the suspected list! If the double lynching is to make any kind of sense, we need to vote for the top two on our list, all of us!

[Boromir88]

tgwbs is noble indeed sacrificing himself. I wonder if it be an attempt to get us to say "oh he must not be guilty" and follow behind me in wanting to sacrifice myself when really he is a wolf bluffing? But, I doubt it, so close to the wolves defeat, I don't think a wolf would want to bluff his way out and be suicidal.

Whether I'm another "candidate" up for lynching or not, I still oppose a double-lynching, many things can go wrong.

The cursed villager has been brought up, and if we end up lynching two innocents and not a wolf, of course we may have caught the cursed, but we might not have. In which the wolf stumbles upon luck and catches the cursed villager at Night, then it's over. Though this is highly unlikely, I'm sure its possible still if the Cursed happens to still be around.

[the guy who be short]

The cursed is most likely dead already.

I voted for myself because I thought I was a little higher on people's lists... In any case, I'd bet my left beard there's a wolf in the Enca-Fea-Mr U trio proposed. So it will all work out well in the end anyway, even if Enca isn't a wolf today.

Simple. :D

[Boromir88]

Mr. Underhill, the way I see it is either...

1) tgwbs is bluffing

or

2) Like me, realizes he may be a distraction to the village and is sacrificing himself to the village.

With that being said here's all that could go wrong if there's a double-lynching.

1) Both candidates are innocent bringing us downn 4-1, during the night. Then the wolf gets his/her kill.

1 a) The Wolf's kill, by luck picks the Cursed (if he/she still so be around) and the Villagers lose.

1 b) The wolf kills an ordinary bringing score down 3-1 and giving you one day to catch the lone wolf. Another problem with this is I don't see how you can tell anything from the voting if there is a double lynching, making it even harder to find the wolf.

If there is no double lynching, and we don't get a wolf the score is 5-1 going into the night. 4-1, or 3-2 (if the wolf luckily catches the cursed), giving an extra day for the villagers. Also, if we just vote the way we have been, you can tell a lot more from the votes that way then by everyone agreeing on a double-lynching.

The cursed is most likely dead already.~tgwbs
That's probably true, but you can't pass it of as a "known."

[mormegil]

Yes Boromir I've considered those odds myself but think out of 5 villagers assuming Mr. U's and my innocence we pick 2 that's a 40% chance of a lynching a wolf. It's a risk but doubles our chances. It may be worth taking a risk at this stage.

The problem also is that tomorrow I most likely will be dead and therefore the only other innocent isn't 100% known but it's nice to have one known innocent at least. Oh how I wish we could do a mass lynching right now.

[the guy who be short]

Votes schmotes. Votes can be interpreted any way you like. The important thing is that we have a small pool of suspicious villagers, and we're gonna kill them off.

My death should sort of prove Boro's innocence, as we're both in similar boats: distractions, but innocent.

Other than Boro and I, Enca and Fea seem most suspicious. They die. Throw in one Mr Underhill for good measure, voila, villagers win.

The only thing that could go wrong is the cursed villager. The chance of that is negligable.

And we don't need that extra day if we kill 2 people per day. It helps us, if anything.

Today: 2/7 chance of getting wolf
Tomorrow: 1/2 chance.

By the old rules of one lynching per day:
Today: 1/7
Tomorrow: 1/5
Two days time: 1/3

In short, I cannot be bothered to represent the maths, but we have a 54% chance of winning - randomly - if we go by the old method of one lynching per day. If we do two, this jumps to 64%.

Q.E.D.

EDIT: That's with completely random lynchings. We know more or less who we suspect as a whole, so our chances should be higher than that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

TGWBS, bad. *slaps hand* We're trying to orchestrate the lynching of wolves, not good guys, and yet you waste your vote on yourself while still insisting that you're innocent? What a horrible way to win!

I know that my typical behavior of voting before I go to bed (right near the end of the Day) will seem sketchy today, and I've not yet decided whether or not I wish to continue it. Though I know that I'd be an innocent trying to ensure that the plan goes through (heck, I'll vote for myself if it's decided by the group that I should be part of the double lynching), but I know that I'm a top suspect, and I'd like to avoid trouble in voting.

No, not follow the crowd. But surely it seems like sound innocent strategy to work to (1) identify the Seer and follow his/her lead, and (2) being unsure of the Seer's identity, attempt to find the most innocent villagers and work with them.

Being some sort of solo-rogue-individualist villager doesn't help anyone but the wolves -- if you're a wolf, it helps sow confusion and doubt; if you're innocent, it draws suspicion on yourself and only hinders the search for the true wolves.As I first thought that 'Mer was the Seer, then transferred it to B88 for a time, I don't at all trust in my own intuition in this village. Firefoot never crossed my mind as Seer, except a short bit of speculation that was never extended upon. Identifying the Seer and working with her just wasn't an option here, and finding the most innocent villager means going with what I know to be true.

Right now, believing that Footie dreamt of Esty and okays her, I am perfectly fine following her lead. I also believe that morm is okay to listen to, so I'll listen to him. I also know for absolute certain that I'm not lupine, so I know that all of my choices, mistake or not, are uncorrupted. It's more than I can definately say for my trust in anyone else. To me, the most innocent villager is myself.

Now I'm off to analyze Esty, though it won't be terribly in depth, as I've got so much work to do. But I'll work off of Firefoot's prior analyses, which we know to be uncorrupted, and add my own input to it.

[mormegil]

Right now, believing that Footie dreamt of Esty and okays her

I disagree wholly on this point. Esty was not dreamt of, otherwise why would Firefoot ask her "what if" post. Remember the one, yesterday, in which she questioned the possibility of Esty being guilty. She did an analysis and didn't find any culpable in her but that doesn't mean she innocent or was dreamt of. I tend to believe that she is sincere and genuine but I'm not going to right her off as innocent. This surprised me coming from you Fea, aren't you the one that didn't want to believe that LMP, Firefoot and I are innocents? Why Esty?

Now I've done my analysis of TGWBS and have little to add on what Mister Underhill preempted.

post 206 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=12312&page=6&pp=40) there is this part in it that bothers me

Please also note that I was correct in seeing LMP's death. I'm pretty sure that either morm of Firefoot will go next - so if either of you are the seer, make sure to drop a few hints, will you?

It seems that he's under the guise of an innocent trying to get the seer to come forward and low and behold the next night our seer is dead.

Also in this same post there is too much talk from him of him being innocent and he seems to try and identify himself with me a bit too much and I felt uneasy about this when it happened but kept waiting and watching.

Post 164 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423261&postcount=164) there is this paragraph

Hmm. Morm voted when two other people had two votes each, so it looked unlikely Cailin would die. He could still be a wolf, I guess, but looks neutral to me at the moment.
Firefoot and LMP are not wolves. Definite. There is simply no reason a wolf would willingly vote for one of their own on the first day when there was a serious chance of that wolf being voted off, no matter what Feanor claims

I moved down on his innocence list and listed LMP and Firefoot as definate. I think he could have seen that others thought I could be guilty and decided to see if I would be lynched but guess who dies the next two nights? Correct LMP then Firefoot.

So it would seem that either TGWBS is incredibly wolfish and enjoyes dropping hints or has been rather unlucky in his words and the wolves picked people that matched his innocence list. I wouldn't be sad about seeing him go today but if he is I strongly recommed a double lycnhing with somebody else as I don't find him as suspicious as others. Namely Fea and Encai.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Analysis of Underhill’s posts

Day 1:

First post – introductory, with character Ghân-undé-Ghân. Questions morm’s idea of voting.

Second post – questions Boro’s abrasive tone and Anguirel’s offering himself up. Assumes that wolves won’t be the quiet ones. Posits his own and Esty’s innocence.

Third post – votes for Anguirel because he offered himself up, mentions busyness as reason for limited posting and newbieness for uncertainty.


Day 2:

First post – mourns Ang’s death and the fact that he is suspected because of his vote. Asks innocents not to offer themselves in future. Points out that Cailín’s death cannot be credited to any of us except the hunter, thus making votes for her irrelevant. Analyzes the point of time for people’s votes. Pleads inexperience; top suspect is Fea.

Second post – tries unsuccessfully to find evidence about Cailín in posts 41 to 51

Third post – emphasizes inexperience and lack of knowledge of players’ styles. Questions Lhuna’s reasons for voting for him.

Fourth post – wonders whether voting late is advantage or disadvantage. Suspects Fea. Questions suspicion of Shelob.

Fifth post – explains computer problems as reason for less involvement on previous day. Understand reasons for Shelob votes; does not think Form is wolf; votes for Fea, though he says a vote for Shelob could save himself. Hopes that will prove his innocence.


Day 3:

First post – agrees with morm that Fea is probably not guilty. Suspects Enca more. Tries to understand wolves’ reason for killing LMP.

Second post – less convinced of Fea’s guilt. Increased suspicion of Form based on his voting for Underhill twice. Enca and Form are top suspects.

Third post – writes about lagging behind in experience and tactics. Votes for Formendacil, based on his voting pattern. Good thoughts on wolvish reasoning. Could also have voted for Enca.

Fourth post – would have voted for Enca had he known of the tie possibility.


Day 4:

First post – List of voting order. Gives convincing thoughts on Formy’s voting. Suspicion of tgwbs increases, which would exonerate Boromir. His voting early possible wolvish strategy? Tends to believe Boro’s story of playing seer to get suspicion away from morm. Agrees with my comments on involvement and wolvishness, which means he hardly suspects me. Fea and Enca top suspects. Speaks up for the double-lynching strategy.

Second post – analysis of tgwbs. Brings up some valid points which make him more suspicious.

Third post – agrees to morm’s chain analysis idea.

Fourth post – remarks to Fea on individualism.


I have done my best to look at Underhill’s posts objectively, though he and I have been in a parallel situation as newcomers to this game and have not suspected each other seriously. I know he is a talented writer who could probably make his devious posts sound genuine if he wanted to, but they seem sincere to me, especially when he describes his feelings of inexperience and bewilderment. He has gathered momentum as the game proceeded and has contributed good thoughts to the discussion. I don’t agree with him on his conclusions concerning Boromir and Fea, but I can see absolutely nothing in his posting or voting that looks wolvish to me. I know his dependability enough to make me think that he would attempt to do his “duty” more if he had the “responsibility” of being a wolf. He has not attempted to influence others noticeably, which I would also consider wolvish behaviour.

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, trying to run the math on this. Six villagers and one wolf left.

Case 1 - Double-lynching:

If we double-lynch tonight, we have a 2 in 7 chance of catching the wolf, or about a 29% chance. If we assume mine and morm's innocence, that takes us to a 2 in 5 chance -- 40%, as he's already said.

If we miss the wolf, however, we'll be down to 4 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, either we've got 3 villagers and 1 wolf, or 3 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 25% chance in the former case and a disastrous state of affairs in the second -- only a 2 in 5 chance of catching a wolf and even if successful, one wolf still alive to wreak havoc.


Case 2 - Single-lynching:

If we do a single lynching tonight, that gives us a 1 in 7 chance of catching a wolf, or a 14% chance. Again assuming mine and morm's innocence, it's actually a 1 in 5 chance, or 20%.

If we miss the wolf, we'll be down to 5 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, we'll have either 4 villagers and 1 wolf, or 4 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 20% chance of catching a wolf in the former case, and only a slightly less disastrous state of affairs than in the double-lynch scenario -- only a 1 in 3 chance of catching a wolf on Day 5, but with an extra villager around to help string things out.

All told, it looks like tonight is as good a time as any to take our shot on a double-lynching, since we have nearly an even chance of catching a wolf. Assuming I'm right about morm, that is. I don't expect anyone to take it on faith that we're innocent. If you factor that out, we have a 29% chance of catching a wolf with a double-lynching, versus a 14% chance with a single-lynching -- with the possibility of a cursed villager in the mix looming.

For my own part, I'm confident in morm (though my review is still pending), I know I'm innocent, and I'll even go out on a limb and say Esty looks pretty clean to me. That raises the odds even more from my point of view to an even 50% chance of catching the wolf out. I don't think the odds will be so favorable again, and I'm willing to roll the dice on a double-lynching.

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

EDIT: Cross-posting, so some of this is redundant.

[Mister Underhill]

As I first thought that 'Mer was the Seer, then transferred it to B88 for a time, I don't at all trust in my own intuition in this village.If what you say is true, you didn't follow the lead of any of your Seer candidates in voting, though you had the chance to. What gives?

Edit: Looking at it again, maybe I misread you there. By " 'Mer " did you mean Eomer? In which case you did follow his lead on Day One. But does the Seer get a dream before the first day starts?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

Well, since there's only one wolf tonight, we do have a good chance. Unfortunately, tgwbs' early vote for himself could mess up some possibilities, if the wolf also votes against the double lynching. The most difficult part will be to agree on the two to lynch. I doubt that we will manage to get the six that are left to vote three each for two people, so we will need to gather two votes each for two suspects or two votes each for three suspects. Either way, the double lynch works. The second possibility risks the wolf slipping through the net in the middle. So we should vote for the most suspicious people first and last.

Thanks for doing the complicated math, Undé!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Begins (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422659&postcount=44) the game fully in character, which is no problem at all, based on the fact that at the beginning of Day 1, it is rather expected to come in with "hi, I'm here, and I'm talking in character".

In this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422691&postcount=51), she takes offense to Boromir's slander, saying that either he is foolish, or wolvish. Claims that she has

no knowledge of anyone's secret inner life.which tells us early that she's no Seer.

In this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422737&postcount=65)post, she gently teases LMP about his characterization.

In post 81 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422793&postcount=81), she contemplates the pluses and minuses of voting early based on time-zone.

In this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422806&postcount=93) post, she discusses the possibilities of voting seriously on the first day and decides that, due to lack of evidence, she will be voting at random.

Post 96 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422809&postcount=96) is a reminder to TGWBS that Lhuna's absence puts her on par with Shelob for too quiet for comfort.

Again she tells us that she is no Seer with

I can only hope that my random choice was guided, for I have not the wisdom to make a decision with the necessary foresight. It is also in this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422812&postcount=97) post that she votes for Shelob and goes to bed.

She returns from her beauty sleep in post 148 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423159&postcount=148), mourning the deaths of the innocent Anguirel, and the valiant Eomer. She mentions to clear up confusion that her vote for Shelob was not due to silence, but due to random choice. She contemplates wolfish influence on Anguirel's death. She lists in order the voters: Shelob, Encai, Underhill, and Lhuna. She mentions that Shelob's vote may be due to randomness of choice. She suspects that one of the four is a wolf.

In post 158 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423227&postcount=158), she tells us that she's been rehashing events. She repeats her suspicion that there is at least one wolf in the group of Shelob, Encai, Underhill, and Lhuna. She discusses Shelob's early vote for Lhuna, wondering if it is wolvish, or random.

She returns to us once more in post 174 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423335&postcount=174), trying to piece together evidence. She hesitates to vote Underhill, as he echos her feelings as a new player so well. She examines the Anguirel-lynch group, noting Shelob's vote for Lhuna, Lhuna's vote for Underhill, and mentions that she doesn't have feelings either way about Encai, due to the ambiguous placement of her vote.

She mentions each villager in turn now:

mormegil is an uncertain candidate, with his suspicions that don't quite sound consistent to me.

Boromir's insults alone do not make him a candidate, but there are inconsistencies in his posts that make me pause.

Formendacil's suggestion that all of us not vote is in itself suspicious. His suspects are villagers whom I don't suspect, so he could be a wolf, but I don't have enough evidence yet.

Fea is unpredictable.

Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects.

tgwbs' arguments seem fairly sound to me; so far, I have no reason to suspect him.

LMP hasn't yet given me enough clues to his identity in his input so far. She comments that her lack of knowledge of the Seer's identity is probably good, as that means the wolves probably don't know either.

In post 178 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423345&postcount=178) she votes again for Shelob, even though she mentions hesitation based on a two-day-running vote, in tandem with TGWBS both times. She goes to bed.

Post 205 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423645&postcount=205) she gets back. She bemoans the fate of two more dead innocents. She remembers the cursèd villager and contemplates what would happen should the curse be activated. She admits to being part of Shelob's death, and wishes to 'atone' for it. The post has little game-content, and is mostly talking about what a pity it is that we lost Shelob and LMP.

214 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423667&postcount=214) she's back again. She contemplates the identity of LMP's protectee the second night. She also mentions that she's still got no clue on who the Seer is. She comments that yes, she voted Shelob twice, but she points out that Weremendacil voted Underhillo twice, and Boro voted Formy twice also.

In post 220 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423675&postcount=220), she says that she almost abstained from voting Shelob based on lack of desire to be connected to TGWBS, also voting her twice. She decided to ignore him and vote her conscience.

In post 224 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423690&postcount=224), she renews the theory that a wolf voted for Anguirel. She admits her mistake with Shelob, and turns an eye toward Encai. She mentions that Encai voted an innocent twice and broke a tie thereby saving Fea on Day 2. She claims that Encai's vote created a band-wagon effect for Ang, and that Fea may be a wolvish companion. She also comments that all of this is speculation and she's not at all sure of it.

Back again in 235 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423741&postcount=235), she responds to the accusations of her overly-dramatic response to Lobby and LMP's deaths, saying that she was just getting into the spirit of it, but if it's asked, she'll gladly stop.

Post 240 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423772&postcount=240): She names a list of suspects: Fea, Encai, Formy, Lhuna. Contemplates early versus late votes once more.

In post 243 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423778&postcount=243)she decides to sleep on it.

This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423811&postcount=251) is where Firefoot's examination of her begins:

All right, I'll see what I can do.

Post 44

While she does not come out and say "I'm innocent," there are strong undertones of this. Strong emotions, phrases like "fellow villagers," etc. As far as words go, the gist of the meaning is "I'm not sure what I'm doing, I'll have to wait and see what happens before making any decisions." As Esty herself has confessed, she has a flair for the dramatic which makes this more difficult as dramatic tends to be something I look for in a wolf. Nothing conclusive here.

Post 51

She starts out defending herself to Boromir, who accused her on the grounds of "horrible sewing." Again, she states that she has no knowledge of what anyone else is and we don't have enough to judge people on, just words. This could be construed to look innocent or guilty, depending on how you look at it, and it comes down to the same Esty question - is she really not sure, an inexperienced wolf, or both?

Post 65

Some in-character response to LMP and a reiteration of the sentiment that she can't trust anyone. Same as 51 - could be made to look innocent or guilty.

Post 81

States that she will have to vote either early or late, and that it seems that her vote will be random as she has no real suspicions. Could be an innocent not sure of what's going on or a wolf not wanting to cast suspicions to soon to loudly.

Post 93

Repeats that her vote will be random as she has no idea how to form some suspicions. Same as above.

Posts 96-97

Votes for Shelob using a completely random method of the eenie meenie minie mo sort, hoping it was a good vote. If this wasn't her first ww game, I would be concerned, as generally it's better to vote for someone you think at least could be suspicious (I'd say). As it is, I'm not sure. This could be an easy way to hide.

Post 148

After some more dramatics (Esty, don't get me wrong. If dramatics and in-character stuff is your style of play, go for it. Look at Fea. ;) ), she states for the first time that she thinks one of the wolves is probably among those who voted for Ang. In itself, this is not very suspicious; however, if she were a wolf, I think it would be safe to say that none of these four (now three) people she is accusing are wolves. From what we've seen so far of Esty, I wouldn't doubt that if she were a wolf in this game, caution would be her preferred style of play, not incriminating her fellow wolves any more than absolutely necessary to keep up appearances. And if her fellow wolf is Fea, as I suggested in my above post, this could work well.

Post 158

Repeats her suspicions of those four who voted for Ang; see above. She also mentions that Shelob's early vote for Lhuna is curious, and wonders what that might tell us about Shelob. She seems to be trying to cast some guilt on her, more deflection of attention.

Post 174

This is her first really substantial post of the game. She starts out repeating her suspicions of those four Ang-voters, though she doesn't seem to be very firm about those. For everyone else she names as being possibly suspicious, she seems to immediately negate that sentiment with a "but I'm not sure" or "there's not enough evidence." The only candidate she names as being wholly unsuspicious is TGBWS because his logic seems sound to her - who both days has voted with her consecutively for Shelob. She also does not identify Fea ("unpredictable") or LMP ("not enough information") as being particularly innocent or guilty. Interesting that she has not commented on at all the voting of me, LMP, and Morm for Cailin, neither to think we're innocent or guilty because of it, which just about everyone else has. It could have been an oversight, but I would think that it would factor in. This phrase, finishing her post, caught my eye just now: "So far I can't recognize the seer, but that's probably good. If I could, I'm sure the experienced wolves would as well!" Something about this turn of a phrase doesn't sit well with me. Now that I try to explain it, it doesn't work, but it made me go "What?"

Post 178

She votes for Shelob, having noticed that TGWBS has also voted for her. She mentions that she is hesitant to do so but goes ahead with it anyway because she is her greatest suspicion. Because of this, I don't think she would be a wolf with TGWBS, but it's possible. They could be bluffing, and with wolves able to talk all day, it would be easy enough for them to plan it. Hm...

Post 205

All dramatics. I don't think anything can be taken out of it.

Post 214

Most suspiciously, that's the post that's had me singing "Santa Claus is Coming to Town" all day... ;) Seriously though: She defends her position of having voted for Shelob two days in row along with TGBWS. As support she mentions that Formen and Boromir have both voted for the same person as well - deflecting the spotlight off of her and TGWBS. I don't think she would deflect attention onto a fellow wolf like that, so if she is a wolf I dobut Formen or Boromir is as well. She also questions whether the wolves were actually going after the ranger or the person he was guarding. Genuine or an attempt to make it look like she doesn't know what the wolves are doing?

Post 220

She says that her vote for Shelob was made regardless of what TGWBS did because Shelob topped her suspect list, which is true enough. She had been suspicious of Shelob, though I suppose the wolves could have had Shelob targeted. That sounds a little far-fetched though, and it seems more likely that if she is a wolf, TGWBS is not her partner but possibly someone she attached herself to, or even someone with no intended connection at all.

Post 224

She goes back to her theory that one of the wolves voted for Ang, in particular looking at Encai. She also suggests a possible Encai/Fea partnership. Honest, or trying to distance herself from Fea?

Post 235

Here is where she comments on her own enjoyment of getting into a role a bit more and being rather dramatic. Whether she is innocent or guilty, I think this can be taken as written in good intent - meaning that any dramatics are not a sign of guilt.

Post 240

She states that her suspect list hasn't narrowed definitively, though she puts emphasis on Encai, Fea, Formendacil, and Lhuna. This could be starting to push the Fea/Esty theory.

Post 243

Says she will be back early for her, late in voting to cast vote. Nothing indicitive there.

So while a lot she says can be construed to look suspicious, or even flat out just does look suspicious, most of the possibilities for who she could be partnered with get to a far-fetched point. The one thing I have noticed is that she is very good at either staying out of the limelight in the first place or deflecting it once it gets there. I've not made my mind up yet. Esty comes back in 260 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423862&postcount=260) with discomfort on morm's assertion that he and Firefoot are innocent. Not uncomfortable enough to suspect them a lot though. She's amused by the seriousness with which Firefoot analyzes her. "She takes me more seriously than I take myself." She mentions that Boromir's insistence on Formy is either that he's on to something, or he's just being stubborn. She says that Encai's vote for him could be one wolf saving another, meaning that Cai was trying to save Weredacil. She mentions Boromir's theory that Fea has been set up, but is not sold entirely on it. She addresses Fea's comment on her blog amusedly, saying that it's not like she would say anything besides "I'm innocent" on a blog viewed almost entirely by 'Downers.

She returns next (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=423863&postcount=261) post with a vote for Encai based on previous comments.

In 278 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=424019&postcount=278), she posts spontaneous thoughts before analyzing dead-Firefoot's posts. Though she's sad that Lhuna was innocent, she claims relief that the suspicion of her is now gone. Going once more to her Ang-theory, she looks at Underhill and Encai. Underhill she doesn't suspect much, Encai, she does. She says that if Underhill was a wolf, he'd find a way to be more active. She says that she is inclined to listen to Boromir as he was right about Formendacil, and that Boromir says to suspect Encai. She plans to further examine the Fea-set-up theory.

In post 281 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=424035&postcount=281), she's back! (note that I'm getting bored at this point and may begin using far more exclaimation points to amuse myself). She says that she thought Boromir was the Seer. She says that the facts can now be interpreted several ways as Boro wasn't. She comments that Boro could have been a gutsy wolf voting all along for Boro to garner trust from the villagers. Though that goes against her suspicion of Encai, she's not willing to rule it out. She wonders how the wolf recognized Firefoot.

In 283, she wonders more about Boromir, and how what if he was maybe pretending to be Seer to draw out the real one.

In 287 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=424051&postcount=287) she comes out with a list of who she thinks is most likely to be guilty now, based on percentages:

100% innocent - me (The only one of whom I absolutely know)

90% innocent - Underhillo (reasons given above)

80% innocent - tgwbs (for seemingly good reasoning so far)

80% innocent - mormegil (also for seemingly good reasoning so far)

50% innocent/guilty - Fea (just because she's too confusing to get a grasp on)

very suspicious - Encaitare (for the reasons I gave yesterDay)

highly suspicious - Boromir88 (for the reasons given toDay) She claims a strategy, but wants to wait to reveal it.

Back in 290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=424055&postcount=290), Esty credits Boromir with the "chutzpah" to dupe us all, a word that I've only just learned and was greatly amused at seeing. She admonishes him that none of us should be taking his words at face value and he should know better than to expect it. She again mentions her involvement in Shelob's death, saying that at the time, there was reason to suspect her.

In 306 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=424101&postcount=306), she's back again! She admits to also already thinking of the pluses of double-lynching that Fea had no qualms about suggesting. Her two top suspects are Encai and Boromir. She discusses ways to vote to ensure a double-lynch.

In 310, she admits to the rationality of circle-analyzation and heads off to examine Mister Underhill. Her signature remains amusing.

In 313, she says she plans to get up early to vote late, thereby ensuring the presence of an innocent at the end of the Day to keep funny business from happening.

In 319, she yells at TGWBS for wasting his vote.

We have now reached the point of cross-posting. I have to read to catch up, but this is Esty from the beginning to now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

This surprised me coming from you Fea, aren't you the one that didn't want to believe that LMP, Firefoot and I are innocents? Why Esty?
There was no known Seer defending you, Footie, and LMP three days running. Even without a dream, Firefoot's not sloppy. If she'd have seen something that made her suspect Esty, she'd have made it clear. As it is, Esty's got three days of defense in her favor, with the only suspicion as "I'm not positive, but I'm pretty gosh-darned sure." Firefoot's pretty sure is most people's "I'm absolutely certain." Mind, I'll kick myself if she's guilty, but based on that nice lengthy dissection I just did, I don't think she is anyhow.

So it would seem that either TGWBS is incredibly wolfish and enjoyes dropping hints or has been rather unlucky in his words and the wolves picked people that matched his innocence list.
So should we double on Boromir and TGWBS?

Mister Underhill: yes, I meant Eomer. But very shortly after I thought "Hey, maybe his insistence on looking for clues might be TOREstel in WWJ all over again." he died. It was somewhat ironic. But you'd probably have had to follow WWJ to understand my quote just now. And with Boromir, I didn't start thinking he was Seer until the late late hours of last night when I was reading the phantom's first narration post. That theory was smashed to bits when I saw Firefoot's name.

PS: the bolding in my Esty post is purely accidental, but it'll be a royal pain to go fix it, so you'll just have to deal.

[Mister Underhill]

morm has posted often and at length. He made the first player post of the game, in fact. Due to sheer volume, my approach is going to be to take an overview of his posts, only pointing out any suspicous or otherwise notable behavior at need, rather than doing a blow-by-blow summary as has been done for others.

He is the first to propose a plan -- the notorious "random" plan in #49 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422682#post422682). Though I'm still a bit confused on exactly how this was supposed to be executed, I think I start to understand its intent now. It seems a sincere idea -- if all villagers vote randomly and the wolves have an agenda, then in theory the wolves' agenda might be visible in their voting.

In #56 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422709#post422709) he thinks he and Eomer may have spotted something...

Later, he backs off of his own plan after it is met with confusion and/or criticism, acknowledging that most Day One plans are shot down anyway. He shows signs in #87 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422799#post422799) of his overall strategy -- playing his cards close to the vest. Overall I find this strategy fairly trustworthy. He doesn't go out of his way to cast suspicion unless he thinks he has good reason. Holds what he thinks he knows to keep the wolves out of the loop. Unfortunately, it sometimes keeps the innocent villagers out of the loop too...

Later admonishes other players for casting votes based on silence, especially so early in the game -- a position I tend to agree with. All of our "suspicious silents" have so far turned out to be innocents.

By the end of Day One, morm laid out a sensible -- especially by Day One standards -- case against Cailin and made equally sensible-seeming criticism of other players' picks. Did he get lucky with this Day One wolf vote? Could it possibly have been a bid to gain early credibility? It's a possibility I considered, but don't put much stock in. His was the first Cailin vote and from that point of view there didn't seem to be much to gain from it if he were a fellow wolf. If you consider that he also pointed the finger straight at Formendacil in his Cailin vote post (#122 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=422900#post422900)), this seems to point to morm's innocence beyond much doubt. If he's a wolf, it's an extremely bold move to out both fellow wolves on Day One -- especially when there wasn't much suspicion of either -- and I give him credit.

He makes what seems to be an honest error in his early Day Two analysis, but quickly spots it and corrects it (#146 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423154#post423154) and 147). Keeps the heat on Form, though he ultimately won't vote for him on this day. In fact, the day is surprisingly thin on analysis from morm. He says he has suspicions of Fea but probably won't vote for her, then later when he returns he ends up voting Fea after all, for somewhat cryptic reasons. This leads at least some players to think he may be the Seer.

On Day Three, he gives a seemingly level-headed and convincing assessment of the previous day's and night's events in #204 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423621#post423621).

In #211 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423661#post423661) he does a surprising about-face on Fea, outlining a possible scenario in which she is being set up by the wolves. Correctly predicts that either Firefoot or himself will die in the night.

He remains cryptic throughout the day -- though gives a convincing reasoning for why -- but keeps the heat on Form, especially with his post-by-post analysis in #236 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=423748#post423748). Ultimately he votes Enca, claiming to be hoping to create a double-lynching scenario with Lhuna's help. He links himself strongly with Firefoot throughout the day by saying they are both innocent -- something which Firefoot does not object to.

Today, he's made sensible interpretations of Firefoot's remarks, making sure to keep Fea honest in her claims of having been dreamt of by the seer and her accusations of yours truly. His call for a daisy-chain investigation seems sincere enough. Proposes a double-lynching strategy to try to take advantage of decent odds for catching a wolf.

My assessment: if morm is a wolf, he's playing an extremely bold game, outing both his fellow wolves on Day One, voting for one wolf and then being instrumental in taking down the other one. He's led the charge in analysis and rarely makes accusations without proof. Overall seems to be playing a sincere game.

Of course, the nagging flipside of this is, how does he know so much? Was he just lucky, putting his finger on two wolves on Day One? Having been so astute, how is it that he's still alive?

If he's a wolf, he's playing the trickiest game I can imagine and has nerves of steel. At this stage, I have to believe he's innocent. Nothing in his posts -- other than remarkably astute wolf-hunting behavior -- leads me to suspect him.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

My suggested double for lynching remains Boro and Enca. But we're going to get a three-way vote, I presume, so the first voters should go for their conviction. The last ones should try to even things up so that there are at least two people with two votes each, but none with three.

So far, we have one vote, tgwbs for himself.

[mormegil]

I'm starting to think about the Boro/Encai and while I've been highly suspicious of Encai since nearly the beginning I'm wondering now if Boromir used the ploy of pretending to be seer to have us believe him on this day. The reason being if we believe he is genuine (which he could be but I'm viewing it now as he is not) then we think him innocent because he tried to protect the seer. However if Encai had been a wolf then she would have picked up on that and killed him last night...right???? I'm notorious for my crazy ideas and theories so I guess what I'm saying is that it seems to be a waste to vote for both. I would rather see Feanor or TGWBS and one of the Boromir/Encai duo.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Let's not kill me, hm? I promise that's not a cool idea.

Morm... what changed your mind from "I think Fea was framed" to "let's kill her anyways"?

[Encaitare]

It's taken me a bit to read through all the posts and I have to go out again in about 5 minutes. So just a couple of things I'd like to throw out there...

1. I had no idea Formen was a wolf -- I thought he might be the Seer, since he voted for Underhill twice when there was really little suspicion cast on him otherwise. I alluded to this idea in a couple of other posts when I said that Formen's voting was interesting and we might want to watch it closely. Obviously I was wrong about that one.

2. Fea wonders why I saved her. For the record, I didn't "save" her at all. There's nothing to be curious about. I merely thought that Shelob was more suspicious than Fea. I always end up voting late due to my time zone.

3. I'm wondering now if Boromir used the ploy of pretending to be seer to have us believe him on this day.

This was tied into the theory I had going in point 1. I thought that since Formen might be the Seer, Boromir couldn't be, and that he was a wolf pretending to be.

I have to go tutor now; I'll be back in 2 hours or so (7 PM EST). I hope you all vote wisely toDay.

[Mister Underhill]

Let me see if I can sum up top suspects:

Esty - B88 and Enca
morm - Fea and (Enca or tgwbs, leaning towards Enca?)
tgwbs - Enca and himself! (alternatively suspects Fea and Mister U)
B88 - opposes double-lynching, thinks Fea is being set up, hasn't named his top suspect for the day I don't think. May suspect Enca?
Fea - willing to go along with double lynching, hasn't named suspects AFAICT, but trusts Esty and morm.
Enca - quiet all day, w/notice. We're approaching the 5pm EST deadline quickly here, so we ought to hear from Enca soon.
Mister Underhill - Fea and (Enca or tgwbs)

Sorry, Fea, there's just too much doubt surrounding you. Maybe B88 can convince me otherwise once he finally names his suspects.

I'd probably have let tgwbs off the hook until he made that self-vote. I can't think of any sensible reason to do it except as a desperate wolf gambit.

Enca I suspect based on the voting record. Of all the days to be AWOL! Is it wolfish laying-low or the fickle hand of RL -- or both? Whatever she posts when she arrives will be telling. Plus, who's supposed to be doing analysis of her?

EDIT -- D'oh - massive cross-posting... will read up and reassess ASAP.

[mormegil]

Yes Fea but still something isn't sitting right and you're our resident enigma and finding out for sure would clear up some air.

I thought that I already answered this question Fea. Your simply such an unknown factor and lately you seem oddly sincere and as you stated if we believe you to be innocent that's when we should lynch you :p But there is still the chance that we choose TGWBS.

I just want everybody to know how horribly confused I am right now and I must say that I am glad Lhuna is gone because to add one more in the mix would probably send in mental overload and fry my feeble brain.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Here's morm's suggested list again:

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

That means tgwbs should be analyzing Enca. However, since he already voted, I have no idea if he'll be back again toDay.

[Mister Underhill]

Dang -- two top candidates have escaped in-depth analysis. tgwbs would theoretically have taken Enca. Doesn't help his case that he decided to drop the ball there.

We should have caught that Enca wouldn't be around to do Boro -- and now new theories about him are coming to the fore.

To clean up the above a bit:

morm - (Fea or tgwbs) and (B88 or Enca)
Enca - seems to suspect B88 above all others, but we still need to hear more.

I'm as confused as you are, morm, though it seems we can narrow to at least four top suspects:

Fea
B88
Enca
tgwbs

I think Fea almost has to be on the list. If she were an innocent villager, she could have been a lot more helpful; instead, each day has seen her surrounded by confusion and doubt. She makes statements one way, then has to recant or back up her statements with more explanation. She may be innocent after all, but she's on almost everyone's list.

The other three are a coin-toss at this point.

If anyone can hop on some quick Boro and/or Enca analysis, that would be great. My next few hours are going to be tough until the evening vote starts to roll around.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm sorry, I'm no longer alert enough for additional analysis - I refer you to my previous posts on both Boromir and Encaitare for my thoughts on them. I'm off to get a few hours of sleep now so that I can come back early to vote (that's late in terms of voting deadline...). G'night all!

[Boromir88]

I'll go along with the double-lynching, since it seems as everyones all gung-ho.

I'm going to say you should lynch me and tgwbs. I can't stress enough to you that I'm innocent, but apparently only my death will get you people to see. I think tgwbs may be a wolf. He hasn't actually been all that helpful if you think about it. First, he asks mormegil why he's so suspicious of Form, then simply votes for Lhuna for really no reason...or the same reason he voted for Shelob. Now he's not helpful in analyzing Encai, it appears that his "suicide" comes off as a bold attempt to try do what I did. So, right now I think me and tgwbs should be up for a double-lynching.

But, I do say, let's talk some more. If you don't think tgwbs to be a wolf, then it should be me and someone else, we can't afford to lose two innocents here. In any event I've come to the decision that I can no longer be of any good to anyone here, despite the fact that I've been one of the most helpful.

So, my suggestion would be lynch...

me/tgwbs

or

me/someone else

[Boromir88]

I'll be quite honest in that, I'm getting quite irritated (it's a carry over effect from last time when I didn't believe morm, he still haunts me!) So, I'm just going to give it up...

++Boromir

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fea - willing to go along with double lynching, hasn't named suspects AFAICT, but trusts Esty and morm.
I didn't name actual suspects? I could have sworn... Oh well, I've got too much work to do to go back and check at this point, but I could have sworn that I made it apparent that I've wanted Boromir dead since Day One. I have a rather fixed plan of voting for him tonight. I would really like to see Boromir and TGWBS lynched. They are my top suspects, and have been all day. I really though I'd said that...

In any case, they've already helped us out, voting for themselves. It means that we don't have to worry about them showing up late to stop the vote.

But also, Encai worries the aich ee double hockey sticks out of me. If TGWBS isn't one of the lynchees, please let Encai be.

*returns to reading Silence by Shusaku Endo... chapter 7, doing good!*

[mormegil]

I just had an epiphany and realized that Boromir is most likely innocent! Let's remember one of the most solid pieces of evidence we had on Formendacil--his "insulted" reaction to Boromir's vote that is not something that a wolf duo would do. It was a definate slip on Formendacil's part not orchestrated. Therefore I feel that he is most likely innocent plus I sympathize with his frustration. That narrows my list down and I ask that nobody else vote for him!

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double but I'm really scrambling here, busy "delivering messages" and trying to go home yet finish some analysis. I'm more convinced than ever of TGWBS's guilt. Look at what Formendacil says about him in 227 and 165 not convinced of innocence but yet not guilty. Then look at 215 of TGWBS he's on the "slightly innocent" list of TGWBS and he's the only one. I see these two in cahoots. Let's get one person to vote for him. And then we can still decide who is the second because I really don't want to see Boromir go now.

[mormegil]

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

Here is our trusty list, now both TGWBS and Boromir have voted for themselves but nobody else has voted. I propose the next person should be Encai and she should vote for TGWBS bringing him to 2 votes and 4 remaining. Feanor vote for Encai so 3 remaining and Esty vote Feanor that would leave Mister Underhill and me to mop up. Also it will buy us time to decide who we want to vote for. Probably Mister Underhill should be second last and vote for Esty, if all of this happens everybody but Mister U and I should have votes and the wolf will need to comply to not be seen and we can still have a variable vote by me at the end. I think it sounds solid enough.

So in sum and in order of who should vote (if possible)

Encai vote TGWBS
Feanor vote Encai
Esty vote Feanor
Mister U vote Esty
Mormegil vote...will be determined

[Encaitare]

Enca I suspect based on the voting record. Of all the days to be AWOL! Is it wolfish laying-low or the fickle hand of RL -- or both?

My absence was not a wolvish ploy. I had driver's ed, then stopped in for a quick post, then tutored until 7, and my dad was on the computer until now.

I know it's a little late, and some people have already voted, but I will do the analysis of Boromir as asked. It'll be up soon.

[Mister Underhill]

So just to make sure I understand -- we're talking Shorty first and for sure, with a vote held in the pocket to decide the second lynching, which is still up for grabs.

I'm okay with this. The more I reflect on tgwbs's posts and his behavior following the analysis, culminating in his self-vote, he's looking more and more guilty. Shorty, if you're innocent, I wish you would have kept your cool and stayed in the debate a while longer.

My gut has said that B88 is not a wolf. And in addition to your last minute epiphanies and analysis, I think if we're leaning towards tg as guilty, that tends to make Boro seem even more innocent, since they've been at each others' throats. Still, we'll see what Enca's promised analysis shows, if anything.

[Encaitare]

DAY 1

#48: Generally rude and jokes around, randomly accusing Lhuna, Esty, and the nonexistent SaucepanMan.

#69: Continues to be belligerent. Says that despite Anguirel's vote for him, he does not suspect him back. Says that we all deserve to die if we lynch him -- the first of many such statements. Suspects Lhuna, Esty, and TGWBS.

#70: Replies to Esty, continuing to bash her sewing. Says she is being hypocritical by voting at random and then attacking him for doing the same.

#105: Says it is stupid for a wolf to stay quiet, or for the accused not to defend themselves. Therefore he does not want to lynch a quiet person. Says LMP, Formendacil, and Feanor are wolves; no longer suspects Esty.

#110: Says his accusations are beneficial because they provoke reactions. Gives his thoughts on people; in essence, thinks Eomer is innocent, thinks Cailin's vote for him was foolish but not lupine, thinks Ang is noble and foolish but not a wolf, wants to hear more from Lhuna and Shelob, thinks Esty is confused but innocent, vaguely suspects Firefoot and Mr. U and wants to hear more from them, thinks TGWBS is cleared for the day because of his early vote, thinks LMP wants to lynch him, thinks Fea and LMP are in league, votes for Formendacil. Thinks the following are innocent: Anguirel, Cailin, Eomer, Estelyn, tgwbs.

If Boromir were a wolf, it's a pretty safe move to put one fellow wolf on an innocence list whilst accusing the other. Perhaps it's not logical to vote for a wolf on the first day, but they could have been going for that kind of relationship in which they would play off one another in such a way that if one died, the other could fall back on the defense that he helped lynch a wolf. And if it turns out TGWBS is a wolf and Boromir is innocent, then he is just highly intuitive!

#111: cross posted with Firefoot and replaces his suspicion of her with suspicion for Enca for being too quiet.

#115: Says again that his accusations get reactions which might make the wolves slip up.

DAY 2

#154: Says that out of Firefoot, Morm, and LMP, one might be a wolf, although they are probably innocent. He says...

I'm also suspicious of anyone trying to write off who's innocent and who's not, because we can't tell, and it's stupid to assume anyone's innocent, you're only fooling yourself.

A far cry from declaring himself a known innocent! Goes on to say that Enca and Mr. U look the most suspicious, and Fea is either a wolf or likely to die "because it just seems like that happens to people who vote for me...I wonder why, maybe because I'm innocent and if you vote for me you deserve to die!"

#155: Responds in agreement to Fea's statement not to underestimate how bold the wolves may be. Refers to her as "Miss Wolf".

#171: Suspects Formendacil (still holding to his Day 1 vote), Fea (outright says she's a wolf again), and Firefoot (because she is getting off easily with no one suspecting her, and writes off people as innocent). Then states that he is automatically innocent because he has never voted wrong yet. Thinks Lhuna is playing too dumb to be a wolf.

#175: But, to say the way they voted the day prior makes them automatically innocent, is something that I say is wrong.

All this self-contradiction is the sort of thing that makes me uneasy.

#176: Thinks that those who vote for Lhuna and Shelob are suspicious.

#177: Votes for Formen again.


DAY 3

#207: Reiterates the fact that he has "never been wrong" because he said that Anguirel, Eomer, and Shelob were all innocent.

#226: Thinks Lhuna may be a wolf. Thinks the wolves are trying to set up Fea. Says that those who push for Fea's lynching are suspicious. Thinks the other wolf may be Mormegil.

#229: Replies to Formen's thought that Boromir is not wolvish but just misguided in his voting for Formen. Boro says he's on the right trail, and voted for Formen because he was not sure about any other candidates.

#234: Clears up the Saucepan Man thing, says he assumed Sauce was in the game. (I confess that I thought he was too at first.) Says he suspects Formen and Enca the most. Makes this foolish (and I believe, telling) statement:

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

#248: Says Fea is either pulling a bold bluff or being set up by the wolves. States:

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

Votes for Formendacil.

#257: Claims we'll all pay if he dies. Suggests hanging Formendacil one day and Enca the next if he ends up getting hanged himself. Thinks Enca is trying to save Formen. Says he is not trying to drag out the Seer as Fea suggested.

#259: Essentially calls us all stupid.


DAY 4

#285: Explains how he came to suspect Formendacil. Suspects Enca and Esty, in that order. Tells us yet again how innocent he is, stating that a wolf would not vote so steadily for a fellow wolf as he did for Formen. This doesn't quite make it for me because I recall how in a past village the last werewolf kept saying how he helped lynch both the known wolves. It was a clever ploy and he was not killed! Could B88 be doing this here?

#288: Says he was trying to disguise himself as the Seer, which I thought he had been doing. Says it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of him.

#289: Implies that Estelyn is a wolf wanting to get rid of him for being a threat to the wolves.

#293: Says theories about wolves backstabbing one another are "crazy and ludicrous"... I think that it would be a good idea. Then one could hide behind the defense of having killed a wolf. Says he didn't suspect Lhuna and Shelob... except he did suspect Lhuna (post #226). Says again that Fea is being set up. Is no longer as suspicious of Esty.

#295: Says the comment about how if Enca votes for him she will die was a joke because "people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do." Doesn't want a double-lynching of Enca and himself.

#298: Wants to sacrifice himself to allow an extra day to catch the wolf.

#301: Presents further reasoning for his sacrifice in case the double lynching fails, i.e. Enca is not a wolf. Emphasizes the importance of safety in numbers.

#309: Suspects TGWBS.

#311: Nothing important, says he will analyze Fea as asked. Says she's being set up again.

#320: Says TGWBS is being noble in sacrificing himself, but it might be a bluff. Still opposes the double-lynching.

#322: Presents possible outcomes (aka "all that could go wrong") of a double-lynching. Recognizes the possibility that the Cursed Villager is still alive.

#343: Suddenly is willing to go ahead with the double-lynching because everyone else wants it. Is he a wolf deciding that to continue opposing it would be too suspicious? Says to lynch himself and possibly TGWBS.

#344: Votes for himself.

There.

On the whole, Boromir's constant repitition of the same statements (such as: I'm so innocent! ... Fea's being set up! ... You'll die if you vote for me!) suggests to me that he's not quite as helpful as he appears to be with his large number of posts. And the threats and such don't help either. I suggest that he has been hiding behind this pugnacious mask since Day 1 (as we all noted by his attitude, insulting man from Dor-Lomin that he is), and made a deal with Formendacil that he (Boromir) would vote for him (Formen) to make himself look innocent.

Also, Boromir flip-flops here and there. First, he says that no one can be innocent for sure; then he constantly states that he is a "known innocent". He agrees with Fea that the wolves will be bold, and then dismisses the idea of bluffing, backstabbing wolves as "crazy". He opposes the double-lynching, and then when no one agrees, changes his mind.

Let's remember one of the most solid pieces of evidence we had on Formendacil--his "insulted" reaction to Boromir's vote that is not something that a wolf duo would do. It was a definate slip on Formendacil's part not orchestrated.

It could have been just that -- a slip. Or, perhaps it was part of their plan to make Formen look super-guilty and Boro super-innocent.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill.

[mormegil]

So just to make sure I understand -- we're talking Shorty first and for sure, with a vote held in the pocket to decide the second lynching, which is still up for grabs.

Correct I keep the vote for the end. We may actually find some wolfish behavior before the end. We are now just waiting for Encai to begin the voting.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So in sum and in order of who should vote (if possible)

Encai vote TGWBS
Feanor vote Encai
Esty vote Feanor
Mister U vote Esty
Mormegil vote...will be determined
So we set it up that TGWBS definately dies and leave you to decide who the other one is?

Much as I trust you morm, I'm not certain that I'm comfortable with giving you supreme power on this one. I just... can't... stop... my crazy question-everything side. I'm really bad at dropping issues, as I'm sure you'll have noticed. I would prefer a vote thus:

We know the two who will die (TGWBS and ______ ?) and we set up the vote, say

Encai = ______
Fea = TGWBS (I want to make sure I vote for someone I actually think wolfy)
Underhill = ______

With Mormegil and Esty, if possible, coming in to make certain it stays tied. Is that plausible?

Because I'd prefer to know who's going to die in advance, instead of (once again, as much as I trust you morm), leaving it up to you, on the odd chance that my over-worked brain is wrong about your innocence. I can't for the life of me remember if you were ever officially cleared, or if it was just accepted that we should trust you.

And I know I cross-posted a lot... I've been distracted from this post by so many things...

[mormegil]

I thought my voting record, the fact that I exposed two wolves, and the Firefoot's (the seer) continued statements of my innocence would prove my innocence. I seem to be the most innocent and therefore my reliable to trust. Esty on the other hand is not proven innocent by any means. Firefoot only said she didn't think her guilty but the last day still questioned her. If I am still alive tomorrow feel free to lynch me but please trust me in this case. I'm still not sure who the second person will be. Perhaps there won't even be one. I'm not 100% decided yet and probably will ask both Esty and Mr U for counsel in the matter. For this to work we need a known innocent at the helm and I'm the best candidate.

Edit: Fea please stick with the voting I outlined.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay. I'll be nice and follow the rules like a good little girl. :rolleyes: :(

Is there any way to have certainty though, of who's going to die? I'd like it to be either TGWBS and Boromir88, or TGWBS and Encai. I'm still by no means convinced of Boromir. I just... am stuck on him. I can't make the feeling go away. In any case, I've got some more homework to do, so I'll stick my head in in a bit and probably vote then.

[Mister Underhill]

I, for one, am willing to put morm in the driver's seat. It's a risk, of course, but of all the villagers left he seems far the most likely to be innocent. Also, if he's a wolf driving the boat, he has no end-game. If he were to orchestrate taking down three innocents tonight (double-lynching plus a wolf-slaying), that'd leave him down 3 to 1 -- or worst case scenario, 3-2 if he bagged a cursed -- where he would be the prime candidate for lynching. The numbers just don't seem to be there for him to be a wolf.

I'm way up in the air right now about the other three: Boro and his scattershot tactics, Fea the Controversial, and Enca "I've been quietly key in several votes but it's all innocent, really!"

Keep posting everyone, I need more information.

[Mister Underhill]

Ai, just realized also that we never got an in-depth analysis of Fea because Boro folded -- while still proclaiming her as a victim of a wolf-setup.

But we have great analyses of the least suspected villagers... :rolleyes:

[mormegil]

I did a brief overview of Encai though I have not yet of Fea. I haven't had time to post anything about Encai but she has only 13 or so post so it didn't take too long. Fea on the other hand may be a bit longer.

Edit: and speaking of Encai why hasn't she voted?

[Encaitare]

Hopefully I have made my reasoning clear in my analysis of Boromir's posts. If he is innocent, then shame on me; I will have been wrong yet again. Yet please take note that all of my votes have been made for good reasons, and I am not the only one to have voted for only known innocents or those whose identities we do not yet know -- far from it. ToDay's vote will be for one whom I genuinely suspect:

++ BOROMIR88

[Encaitare]

Edit: and speaking of Encai why hasn't she voted?

Cross-posted with you, morm. I was reviewing the thread, hence my vote came later than you expected. My apologies.

[Mister Underhill]

Well, the plot thickens. Here I was looking over Enca's posts and starting to think "less guilty", then she glides in and screws up the plan. Not sure what to make of it or how to salvage the situation here...

[Encaitare]

Oh, crap. Forgive me, that was a genuine mistake. In fact, you probably won't be able to forgive me. I really made an error; let me try to see if it can be fixed.

[Encaitare]

The votes are like this:

TGWBS voted TGWBS
Boromir88 voted Boromir88
Encaitare voted Boromir88

Since TGWBS, B88, and myself are the prime suspects...

Feanor can vote Enca
Esty can vote Enca
Mister U can vote TGWBS
Mormegil can tiebreak?

Again, I just really screwed up. It's late, and I'm tired, and it was a mistake. If you believe nothing else I have said, please believe this.

[Encaitare]

I'm going to bed now... I really need sleep. Good night.

[mormegil]

Mister what do you think, was she genuine? Now we can't get TGWBS and another. We could get Boromir and any other but not TGWBS and I'm more convinced of Boro's innocence than of TGWBS.

Well, the plot thickens. Here I was looking over Enca's posts and starting to think "less guilty", then she glides in and screws up the plan. Not sure what to make of it or how to salvage the situation here...

I was feeling the same. I was beginning to believe she might be innocent but I just don't know now.

[mormegil]

Now my feeling is that we ought to do a single lynching and make it Encaitare. If she's innocent she deserves to die and if she guilty she deserves to die but I just can't shake the thought that she, being a wolf, thought that I was going to vote for her, which I can see why, and thought that a 'genuine' mistake was her only chance of survival. Comically I probably wasn't going to vote for her because I was thinking that she was possibly innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Good morning! I'm back and have just caught up with reading the posts of the last hours. Well, if we stick to the double-lynching plan, and I still think we should, Boro is definitely out of the game. There's nothing in Enca's analysis that makes me revoke my feeling of his guilt. However, everything now depends on the next votes. The next person to get two would get off, the last one with two would be lynched. Question is, TGWBS or Enca?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Tell me who to vote for, and I'll do it. Are we going to kill Boro and TGWBS? Are we going to vote Boro and Encai? Are we going to drop the double lynch and just kill her now and hope it works?

[mormegil]

It sounds as though Esty is for the double still. I don't think I am because it needs to include Boromir. What do you think Fea and also Mister? I'm pretty sure I want to get Encai gone though.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

morm, please explain why you now think Boro innocent - I don't see it. And as long as he's possibly guilty, a double lynching is a good idea.

Sure, he voted for himself, which would be a stupid move for a wolf, but he did so at a time when that move would seem to show his innocence. Only Enca's vote sealed his fate.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What do you think Fea and also Mister? I'm pretty sure I want to get Encai gone though.
I say that we double Boromir and Encai and if that doesn't work, we take out TGWBS tomorrow.

[mormegil]

I just had an epiphany and realized that Boromir is most likely innocent! Let's remember one of the most solid pieces of evidence we had on Formendacil--his "insulted" reaction to Boromir's vote that is not something that a wolf duo would do. It was a definate slip on Formendacil's part not orchestrated. Therefore I feel that he is most likely innocent plus I sympathize with his frustration. That narrows my list down and I ask that nobody else vote for him!

These are my main reasons. I think it's possible for him to be though I have nagging doubts. I feel you are innocent but I still have a little bit of a nagging doubt too.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Let's sum up the situation and debate what we can best do. There are four of us left now - morm, Fea, Underhill and myself. As far as I can judge, all four of us are likely to be innocent. The three that we consider most likely to be guilty have already voted. How can we make the best of this situation?

Let's gather arguments for either of the two remaining and, should we decide to stick with the double lynching, decide which one of them should be included.

I think we're better off with short posts, exchanging ideas more quickly, than with long ones.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I agree on short posts, Esty.

Let's see...

'Cai votes for Boromir
Boromir votes for Boromir
TGWBS votes for TGWBS

We've still got votes available from

morm
Fea
Esty
Underhill

If we decide to kill TGWBS and Boromir, we only really need one more vote. If three abstain from voting, the two will die, and there is so minimal likelihood of anybody stopping the vote that even the precaution of having at least two extra innocents around is almost unnecessary, though just for safety, I say keep it.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, then let's gather arguments for lynching tgwbs first, then go back for Enca after that.

For most of the time, I thought that his involvement was helpful, but his voting record is strange. Now, his vote for himself could be a bluff on his part, a wolf cornered and defensive, but for some reason he just doesn't seem wolvish to me!

In post #321, he said: I voted for myself because I thought I was a little higher on people's lists... Now wherever did he get that idea? I didn't see him high on any list!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

'Cai votes for Boromir
Boromir votes for Boromir
TGWBS votes for TGWBS

We've still got votes available from

morm
Fea
Esty
Underhill

However if we decide to kill Boromir and Encai, we need at minimum two votes. I think it best for the group-chosen "most trusted" to abstain from voting. I highly doubt anything fishy will happen, given that the three top suspects have already voted, but you know... just in case. No such thing as being too careful.

And if we decide to just kill 'Cai, we need three of the four of us to vote for her, and the last probably just not to vote.

[mormegil]

Each day, I expect EVERYONE to VOTE, and also to POST.

You MUST-
respond to the accusations and defenses of others OR make your own accusations and defenses OR submit substantial theories on voting patterns and alliances between villagers
vote


Feanor, how quickly you forget, Lhuna died for not voting and now you want all of us not to vote...seems a bit wolfish.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Definitely not a good idea not to vote! If we do decide on a course of action, the votes we don't need can be distributed on others.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Jeez. Gods all bless the phantom for having a rule against everything. You'll note that I don't mention which gods, and what their opinions on a decent blessing are.

Right, so nix my previous voting plans, here are rule-fitting ones:

With Boromir having two votes, and TGWBS having one, we could kill them thus:

Fea votes TGWBS
Underhill votes Boromir
Esty votes TGWBS
morm votes Encai, just for the heck of it, saving him from auto-lynch

To kill Boro and Encai:

Fea votes Encai
Underhill votes Encai
Esty votes Encai
morm votes Boromir

[Mister Underhill]

I don't know what to recommend. Enca has taken what looked like a pretty good situation and turned it upside down. Carelessness? I don't know. I'm feeling she has to go down one way or the other. Now the only other real question is whether to take B88 too.

I've been back and forth on him. There seems to be some wisdom in going for the double, even though I'm undecided. morm seems the likeliest target for the night if we miss. There's no way for a wolf to foist this catastrophe on him.

That would leave:

tgwbs
Esty
Mr. U
Fea

Then the ones who are left take out Shorty tomorrow.

Looks like our best shot at the moment.

[mormegil]

Wolves have a tendency to feel the heat a lot more than we would. It could easily be a reaction to some slight pressure.

I've outline why I think he is a wolf earlier but essentially


He tried to have the seer give hints
seemed to try to identify with me by appealing to me on my innocence while claiming his own
his posts have seemed helpful but didn't really contain much
seemed to never leave out Formendacil from his suspects by saying his innocent but never put him high on the list and Formendacil did the same to him

[Estelyn Telcontar]

We also have another voting possibility - if we vote Boro and Enca with three votes each, the one for tgwbs is left over, and we have two lynchings.

Or we vote Boro and tgwbs three each and one for Enca.

Basically, aside from going for one of the two suspects left and giving her or him all four votes, there's no way to save Boro now anymore.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I have a hypothetical question. Say we double-lynch today, and manage to get two innocents, then morm dies tonight, leaving Underhill's list of tgwbs, Esty, Underhill, and me...

Then we kill TGWBS and find out [remember my hypotheticalness, and you'll understand my question shortly] that he's also innocent...

Then say I'm killed off the next night...

Leaving two villagers, Esty and Underhillo. Do they kill each other leaving "Moderator Wins!!!"?

[Mister Underhill]

Sorry, catching up on posts -- we could stick with the original plan, which was tgwbs as the definite. Boro maybe wasn't the ideal candidate, but we could take him in a double just to be sure. The odds of a cursed still be around and being killed by the remaining wolf are pretty low.

I know I'm all over the map here. I was leaning toward an innocent Enca before the "mistake". I'd go for a Shorty-B88 double.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Definitely only hypothetical, Fea! :D

How about Enca? Do you think her vote really was a mistake, and why? I don't understand her reaction, unless it really is that of a wolf cornered and desperate. A wolf alone could react just like that, seemingly giving up and hoping for a wonder...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm okay for a Shorty/B88 double. Worry about Encai tomorrow then?

Here're my thoughts on Shorty:

Votes for three innocents, then votes for himself, throwing it away on a crucial day. Day one, mentions Cailin to be a suspect because he "didn't notice" her posting. Drops her immediately when called on it. Good way to cast suspicion early, but in a very harmless way, on a fellow wolf. Says Firefoot and LMP are not wolves, using the word "definate". Not even the Seer ever uses the word definate. Day three: defends Weremendacil.

My thoughts on B88: the lad's been troubling me all along and I'll be quite happy to finally know for sure his role.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, I'm willing to go with a Shorty/B88 double if that's what we all agree on. As you've said, if Enca really is the wolf, we can get her on the next day - I hope...

At any rate, I will have to make my decision within the next half hour, as the RL part of my day starts then.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

How about Enca? Do you think her vote really was a mistake, and why?
It might have been. I lean toward it, actually. Wolves aren't that sloppy. Sure, she might be feeling the pressure if she is a wolf, but still, I have confidence in her aplomb in situations like that. I wouldn't expect her to so openly screw up at all.

On the other hand... I know diddly squat for certain, so she could easily be lupine.

[Mister Underhill]

Alright, I'm on board. morm, do you agree? If so, how do we orchestrate it?

[mormegil]

I can't say I want Encai to survive, I can't tell you how much time and effort I put into this day and to have it ruined was frustrating. Okay we have one vote for TGWBS and 2 for Boromir. Esty vote for TGWBS and Fea vote the same.

Mister Underhill please vote Boromir and I will then vote for Encai as protest. Also before the end of the day I will post some closing thoughts because I feel that I will die.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Here's my suggestion - we need one vote away from the two main targets. I can vote for Enca, which would genuinely reflect my long-standing suspicion of her, leaving the three of you to vote, one for Boro, two for tgwbs.

edit - morm, why are you changing back to Enca?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

At any rate, I will have to make my decision within the next half hour, as the RL part of my day starts then.
I know the feeling. I'm looking at my clock thinking "I've got a class in 7 1/2 hours and I'd like to finish a drawing before I go to bed."

Are we set on B and TGWBS tonight? If so, we next decide who votes for whom.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay. TGWBS it is. I'll vote shortly. And morm, I eagerly await your "last words" if they end up being them.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Cross-posting is the only thing that can mess us up now. We need to have a quick agreement for the double-lynching to work. If by my vote for Enca , for Boro, or for tgwbs I can save our village, I will. You have my scissors!

Let's not vote before we have agreed on a list!

[mormegil]

Esty I was voting for Encai because I need to vote for somebody and the way outlined would make it so both TG and Boro have 3 votes each.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, morm, it doesn't matter who votes for which, the important thing is to do it. Then go ahead with your vote for Enca, I will vote as necessary to make the double lynching work.

[Mister Underhill]

The posts have been flying fast and furious. morm's plan is:

Esty - tgwbs
Fea - tgwbs
Me - Boro (creating the tie)
morm - Enca (symbolic)

Let's see those votes, people.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

My suggested voting list:

morm votes for Enca as he plans

I will vote for Boro, as he's top on my list

Underhill and Fea vote for tgwbs

Result - double lynching, all have voted.

Agreed?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Cross-posted with Underhill - Undé, may I be the one to vote for Boro?

[mormegil]

The posts have been flying fast and furious. morm's plan is:

Esty - tgwbs
Fea - tgwbs
Me - Boro (creating the tie)
morm - Enca (symbolic)

Let's see those votes, people.

Let's just stick with this okay.

[Mister Underhill]

Let's go in the order morm suggested. That leaves morm as a safety valve in case anything goes wrong -- though I don't see how it could at this stage, since none of the remaining voters is getting lynched.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Undé, may I be the one to vote for Boro? Can I ask why it matters?

[Mister Underhill]

Is it a conscience thing? You don't suspect Shorty? Either way is fine by me. I'll tie it up.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'll get the first vote in:

++TGWBS

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Now let's see some further tyin'! My conscience will be happier with me if I know that we're done for the night when I go to bed.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I guess it is a conscience thing, though as we are acting as a group, it doesn't matter. As Underhill said, since none of us is getting lynched, there's no real problem with this agreement. So, to get things going:

++Boromir88

(cross-posted with Fea's vote)

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, somebody confirm me here so there's no chance of screwing this up. I cast a Shorty vote and we're all tied up, right?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

right

[mormegil]

Okay, somebody confirm me here so there's no chance of screwing this up. I cast a Shorty vote and we're all tied up, right?

Well only if I screw it up

[Mister Underhill]

++tgwbs

Eru help us. Good luck everybody.

[mormegil]

++Encaitare for messing up my plan...I will forgive you when this is over ;)

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Eru help us.
Amen to that!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, phantom, we're set! Whatever happens in the next night, whichever of us gets killed if there is still a wolf around, I want to let you know that this has been great fun! I'll be back as soon as possible to read the results of this Day's work, but this will be my last post for now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Eru help us.
Amen to that!
I concur.

[mormegil]

Okay so now we have
Mormegil
Feanor
Encaitare
Mister Underhill
Esty


More than likely I will die tonight. Tomorrow I would recommend another double lynching orchestrated by Mister Underhill and backed up by Esty. I would have Encai vote for Feanor and Feanor vote for Encai then Esty and Underhill could vote for whom they like to tie those two up. The reason why you should have a double lynching is because you will have 4 left if one innocent dies you 3 total and that night the wolf kills one innocent and wolf wins. So you might as well kill 2 and I think Feanor and Encaitare are the most likely...if it is Esty I will never forgive myself for believing you and if it's Mister Underhill I should probably hand up my hat on WW for good.

Now a request to the grand master phantom Please end this DAY!!! I'm not sure how much more of it I can take...it's drained me too much. My mind is mush...and I think all know after today why I gave myself the title Maundering Mage.

[the phantom]

"So, we have one wolf left," said Mister Underhill. "How do we go about catching it?"

"I say that we thoroughly analyze every single villager," suggested Mormegil.

"Except me, of course," put in Boromir. "I am quite obviously innocent."

"Shut up, Boromir!" snapped Fea, who was hating Boro more than usual today. "I say forget analysis- let's kill Boro!"

"You'll die if you do! And who cares if you're innocent- you'll deserve to die," countered Boromir.

"I'm getting really sick of you, Boromir!"

"Ah, go drown yourself in Teiglin, knuckle-head!"

"Knock it off, you two!" scolded Esty. "Let's focus on the job at hand."

"Yeah, let's get to work," agreed Enca, as she accidentally spilled her drink on the table.

"This is dumb- I'm killing myself!" declared the guy who be short, as he drew a knife and attempted to stab himself. Luckily, he was drunk and missed entirely and instead pinned his jacket to the wall.

"Someone keep an eye on him and make sure he doesn't kill himself," said Morm.

"I'll watch him," volunteered Enca, who rose out of her chair and, on her way over to him, accidentally knocked over four chairs.

[the phantom]

The amount of information that was brought forth and analyzed on Day 4 was astounding. Day 4 compared to the other days the way an essay would compare to a burrahobbit post.

But night was fast approaching, and a decision was necessary.

"I think we have enough analysis," said Underhill.

"All right then, what are we going to do?" asked Esty.

"Let's double lynch," said morm.

"Let's not," agreed Boro.

"Let's do both," added Enca, helpfully.

"Or perhaps we should do neither," assented Fea.

"See why I want to die?" mumbled tgwbs, while trying, quite unsuccessfully, to hang himself on a cobweb.

"Well," said Fea, "Boro has been right every time and has provided us with lots of entertainment. Let's kill him."

"Um, I'm not quite following your logic," objected morm.

"I'm with Fea," said Enca, as she accidentally fell off of her chair.

"I'm just going to do whatever morm says," said Underhill and Esty in chorus.

"Would someone take that knife away from tgwbs?" pleaded morm, noticing that the dwarf had managed to pry his long knife out of the wall.

"Hey!" objected tgwbs as Boromir snatched his knife.

"Thanks Boro," said morm.

"No problem," said Boro as he stabbed himself with tgwbs's knife.

"Are villages always like this?" asked Esty.

"Yes," answered Enca, who then knocked over a candle and set her table on fire.

"Sheesh, Enca, can you please stop screwing up?" cried a frustrated Mister Underhill.

"Put it out! Put it out!" yelled Fea and Esty as they frantically ran circles around the flaming table.

Over in the corner, tgwbs had his hands around his own neck and was attempting to strangle himself.

"Someone put the crazy cook out of his misery!" hollered morm.

But there was no need. tgwbs stumbled forward and fell on top of Boromir. The long knife Boromir had stabbed himself with was sticking out of his back, and tgwbs's throat came down right on it.

Finally, the fire was put out and order restored.

"Um, they're both dead," said morm.

"Yeah- and neither of them are wolves," said Esty.

"Oops," said Underhill, Fea, and Enca.

But Boromir was not quite dead. Even with the dwarf on top of him, he raised himself up painfully and looked each of the villagers in the eye.

"You're all a bunch of knuckle heads!" he rasped, and after giving them all the bird, he slumped back to the floor, dead.

Living-

mormegil (messenger)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling Werewolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by Werewolves on Night 3)
Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)
Firefoot (Seer- slashed, beaten, stabbed, and snapped in half by Werewolf on Night 4)
Boromir88 (Ordinary- couldn't stand knuckle-headed villagers any longer and commited suicide on Day 4)
the guy who be short (Ordinary- got fed up with accusations and defenses and commited suicide on Day 4)


Score: Villagers- 4, Werewolves- 1

It is now NIGHT 5. Anyone posting before the next day begins will be smacked with Phantom's Stick of Slaying.

Wolf- I need your pick by 12:30 AM EST

[the phantom]

"So, Master, is it true that the wolf has made a kill tonight, and that tomorrow will be the end?" asked Mortakh.

"Yes," answered Sauron. "Doom will fall tomorrow. If my wolf is lynched, then the villagers win. If my wolf is not lynched, we win."

"What do you think will happen, Lord Sauron?"

"If there is one thing I have learned these past few days, Mortakh, it is that Erbar Telamarth is always full of surprises. I will not venture a guess at its fate. I will simply wait, and watch..."

[the phantom]

Estelyn walked into the tavern. Feanor of the Peredhil was already there, seated at the bar.

They waited in silence.

Encaitare entered and sat at a table.

A short while later, Mister Underhill came through the doorway.

"Seen Mormegil?" asked Fea.

Underhill shook his head. "I took a quick walk down towards his home- the door was torn off... and there was blood on the lawn. I didn't go inside, or follow the blood trail. I've seen enough death."

"Well, at least he knew he was going to die, and so was probably prepared to meet his fate," said Esty. The others nodded in agreement.

"Well, this is it," said Enca. "We've got to find the last wolf."

"Indeed," agreed Mister Underhill. "Now is not the time to hold back. Everyone needs to let it all out."

"Let's analyze like crazy!" said Fea.

"And absolutely NO suicide today!" warned Esty. "Remember, every time you vote for yourself, a skwerl dies."

And, with those final words of wisdom, the villagers launched into the final debate- the debate that would decide the doom of Erbar Telamarth.

Living-

Encaitare (jewel smith)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling Werewolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by Werewolves on Night 3)
Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)
Firefoot (Seer- slashed, beaten, stabbed, and snapped in half by Werewolf on Night 4)
Boromir88 (Ordinary- couldn't stand knuckle-headed villagers any longer and commited suicide on Day 4)
the guy who be short (Ordinary- got fed up with accusations and defenses and commited suicide on Day 4)
mormegil (Ordinary- as he predicted he was mauled by a Werewolf on Night 5)


Score: Villagers- 3, Werewolves- 1

The following villagers have informed me that their participation will be somewhat limited today- Encaitare will not be present to participate until around 4 PM EST.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm sad that our choices had such a devastating outcome! Instead of the wolf, two innocents died, and now mormegil has been killed as well. I spent much of the past Night pondering our possibilities. Fortunately, it has not come to the worst, which would have been the transformation of a cursed villager into a werewolf.

What we need to do now is to plan a strategy that will give us the best chances of killing the last wolf. Here are the choices and their possible outcomes:

1. We lynch one person, it's the wolf, game over, three villagers survive, villagers win.

2. We lynch one person, it's an innocent, the wolf kills another in the coming Night, two survive, one of them is the wolf, wolves win.

3. We double lynch the two most suspicious villagers, thereby increasing our chances of getting the wolf; either we succeed and the villagers win, with two surviving, or we miss the wolf and lose.

I think the last choice is the best. It gives us the best chance of lynching a wolf. Whatever we do, the game is over by Night at the latest, more likely toDay.

I still think my list of suspects is valid; I had Enca pegged as the most suspicious and Fea as the next (50-50), with Underhill and myself as innocents. I know one of you young ladies is innocent, but it can't be helped - will you be willing to die for the best of the village? If not, you are definitely making yourself appear even more suspicious!

I ask Fea and Enca not to vote for themselves - phantom got it right, I think the suicidal votes are stupid, and all of them have gone wrong in this game. But I ask each of you to vote for the other one, then Underhill and I can finish by tieing the votes for a double lynching.

I know I'm coming out early with this suggestion, but as I consider it the very best possibility for the villagers to win, I offer it to you all. Unfortunately, I will be away for several hours this afternoon and evening, and I know Enca won't be able to defend herself until later, but I shall do my very best to make up for lost time before and after my absence.

I'm not sure how much a lot of analysis will help us - we've done so much of that! But we can go back and at least honour Boromir, tgwbs, and mormegil by attempting to pick up clues from their contributions.

If either Enca or Fea votes for Underhill or myself, she is most likely to be the wolf, and I would suggest concentrating all following votes on her!


PS - I will definitely by voting late this very last Day of the game! As I did on the previous Day, I will be up early in my time zone to discuss the possibilities with the rest of you and to cast my crucial vote just before the deadline.


PPS - I just reread morm's last post, in which he suggests this very same tactic. Since the dead are always right and always good ;) that means we should definitely do it!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm willing to work together. I'd prefer not to die, but as long as Encai gets justly punished for messing with the votes yesterDay, I'm okay with it. Here's to hoping that Esty and Underhill are as innocent as the world thought. Once I'm back from my classes (this will be after 3:00 PM EST), I'll take a few glances about, see what's what, and decide what to do.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I've been pondering the mistaken judgement we made concerning the two innocents lynched yesterDay. Could we have known their innocence and chosen more wisely to eliminate the wolf instead?

As to Boromir88, I think not. He deliberately set himself up to be thought the Seer; I was not the only one who noticed that. He explained that by saying that he did it to protect the real seer; I suspected him to be a wolf masquerading as seer and voting for a "known" wolf to protect his secret identity. Since we did not know whether to believe his word concerning his motives for that move, we were right in suspecting him.

I never during the whole game seriously suspected tgwbs. That's the reason I didn't want to vote for him yesterDay. However, the irregularities in his voting did make him seem suspicious. My question is, who started the campaign against him? I'll go back to reread the posts later when I have time. That could give us an additional clue to the real ID of the wolf.

Fortunately, the evening meeting I was to have has been cancelled! I'll have time to discuss when the rest of you are here.

Cross-posted with Fea - thanks for your willingness to cooperate! That does speak for your innocence; however, I am unwilling to give up the only plan with some kind of certainty, so I do not suggest changing the double-lynching idea.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I am unwilling to give up the only plan with some kind of certainty, so I do not suggest changing the double-lynching idea.
I agree. Two should die. If we're wrong, we die anyhow. If we take out two, it ups our chances of being right.

I thought this funny enough to share: last night I had a dream that Encai convinced me that Underhill was guilty. Way to have a BD dream, no?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay, I've had a spare minute (several actually, given that my tutorial ended on time for the first time ever, instead of running quite far over my half-hour limit) and here is my thought:

Let's inspect each living player, Encai, Underhill, Esty, and myself.

I know that we've already gone over each other (except for Boromir not analyzing me), but let's do it from a biased point of view. With the thought "Let's just say _____ is a wolf. What has s/he said and done that would prove my point?"

No writing from personal opinion such as "I think s/he is innocent, but _____". I think it would be a good idea to write an arguement, sophistic though it may be, against everybody, with the only intentional bias being "So-and-so is obviously guilty because ______". That way we can look as objectively as possible at what possibly damns the person. And I know that we can all write well, so no claiming that you can't write a good arguement. :)

Good idea? I rather think so... Here's how it would work (in trusty alphebetical order):

Encai accuses Esty accuses Fea accuses Mister Underhill accuses Encai. That way everybody gets a good thorough looking into, actively searching for every possible negativity. Theoretically, once the four of us have been "proved" to be lupine, we'll look and decide on the two most convincing arguements (not based on quality of writing, though that's always nice, but based on the arguements themselves). Don't forget that you're allowed to conjecture a bit, such as saying "Esty is obviously a wolf because even though she didn't do anything, that's exactly what a quiet wolf would be doing: looking innocent."

Even if everybody else thinks my plan is a waste of time, I plan to implement it anyhow, with or without group consent. I'll search for Underhill's guilt when I get back from my [wenching] duties mid-afternoon.

[Encaitare]

I've been able to snag a few minutes in class to check up on things here. Fea wants me "justly punished" for my mistake yesterDay. As I said, RL distractions (*coughCollegeApplicationscough*) and sleep deprivation made my mind wander, and I forgot about the plan, since I really did suspect Boromir and had him stuck in my mind as guilty. But think about this: after I made the vote, Mr. U and Morm said they had been thinking me innocent until then. If they had been thinking me innocent, and I had voted for TGWBS like I was supposed to, then it's probably safe to say that the double lynching would have had the same results. Can you honestly think my honest mistake was a wolvish ploy? The key thing for a wolf to do at this point is lay low to avoid detection, and if what I did were deliberate, as you can see it has the exact opposite effect.

Now with the knowledge that Boromir was innocent, I think that the wolf was setting up Fea all along, and then needed a new scapegoat when Boromir started to catch on. Morm was most likely killed, as he predicted, because he was the last of the known innocents. Yet the wolf has also realized that in keeping me alive, s/he is drawing much attention away from him/herself.

Esty says she knows the wolf is either Fea or me. I find it curious, however, that the new players are both still alive. Why is that? It could be that Esty or Mr. U is using the newbie and esteemed Downer roles to his/her advantage, being able to stay quiet and off people's radar. I don't think it's out of the question for Phantom to have made one of them a wolf, since he knows they're both very intelligent. In fact, it sounds just like the kind of thing he would do. Since I know I am not the final wolf, I'm worried that if Fea is lynched with me, the wolf may escape. I feel as though she is suspected simply because she is Fea, and is known to be a shrewd player. Maybe our analyses will yield something... I will do the analysis of Esty when I get home from school, about 3:30-4 ish (PM EST).

[Mister Underhill]

Go for it, Fea. I don't know if I'll do much work on Enca. She doesn't have many posts. When I looked at them yesterday, I was leaning towards her innocence, but then she came along and screwed up the plan, so that's probably the most important factor in her case. Either you buy that it was accidental, or not. I agree with Esty that we need a double-lynching, and I think Enca's got to be one just to be safe after that debacle.

Fea has to be the other one, I think. You've been on a lot of lists for a long time, and I think you might have gotten lucky and slipped the noose yesterday. If not for Enca's mistake, I think it likely that you might have been lynched. I think the round-robin analysis is just another distraction tactic at this point. From my point of view, I know I'm innocent, and one of you all is the wolf, so two out of four analyses will be useless to me. I'll be looking over your posts later myself, since I'm assuming either you or Enca is the wolf and one of you isn't going to make it easy for us to pull off the double-lynch and I'll have to choose.

I'll also take a look at Esty's posts just for the heck of it, but I don't expect to find much. If she's fooled me this far, then she'll win. I can't imagine finding anything that I haven't seen already that will make me vote for her over one of you two.

I doubted Boro was the wolf, and I would have given Shorty a pass too if it wasn't for that dumb self-vote. If this village goes down, it's going to be because of innocents offering themselves and/or voting for themselves. It's not noble, it's just dumb! If Boro hadn't self-voted, Enca couldn't have screwed things up so badly; if Shorty hadn't of self-voted, I think he would have been one of the less-suspected players going into the voting.

Oh well. We must play the cards we're dealt. At this point, best bet is a double-lynch of Enca and Fea. Assuming one of you is the wolf and will attempt to mess with that, it's gonna come down to a choice between you.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Enca. For the record, I would've been pushing hard for a Fea vote yesterday until the plan got screwed up.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Thank heavens for cancelled class and sparse posting. I've gotten all of Underhill's posts together and I'll take a look at them when I get back from my next bit of [wenching] responsibility. After that... I'll writing a convincing argument as to why we should kill him. I'd like to see similar arguements from the rest of you.

As with Encai, that'll be around or after three.

PS: this assignment so closely resembles one that I had to complete for comp that it scares me a little. :)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I cross-posted with Underhill. Hillo, this is not a diversionary tactic, this is a last minute reassurance that we're suspecting the right people. We worked as a group yesterday, we can do it again today. If we see all the reasons someone should be suspected laid out flatly and convincingly, we can double check on our suspicions and not make a huge mistake. Remember, it's very easy to get convinced that you're right about someone's innocence or guilt, and it's very easy to be wrong. I'd like the villagers to win, and the only way to do it is to work together at this point. If working together means trying to get each other killed, then so be it. I want to know what the exact reasons are pointing to people's guilt. We should have done this a while ago. I'll do all the work myself if I have to, but, quite frankly, I've got a life outside the game, and that work would severely damage my time set aside to rewrite two papers, write up some annotations for a bibliography, choreograph more of a dance, take photos for my art class, and study for psych. Are we working as a team or not? It's the only way we can win. Unless you don't want a detailed analyzation of your faults? Are you afraid I might find something once I start looking? Feel free to examine my posts, and as deeply as you want, with as much speculation as you feel the need for. I'm not afraid of what you'll find. None of you should be, if you're innocent.

[Mister Underhill]

Sorry, Fea, but this feels like more of your tactics of sowing doubt and mistrust by implying that I'm afraid of your analysis. As I said in my previous post, "Go for it." Feel free to analyse me and other players all you want. I think we each should be doing the same today. There are only four of us left, so it's not a gigantic workload, plus we have up-to-yesterday analysis on most of us -- not you, though, how curious...

If you're innocent, I think the best thing you can do is go along with trying to help us pull off a double-lynching that includes yourself, but we'll see how the day progresses.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'll be happy to analyze you with a view to finding reasons for your guilt, Fea. I have a few duties left for today, then will have time for in-depth searching.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Underhill, another tactical possibility has occurred to me that would work in the case that one of our suspects does vote differently - which would make her our top suspect, of course!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

plus we have up-to-yesterday analysis on most of us -- not you, though, how curious...
How curious indeed. I forgot to tell you all, I mysteriously turned into Boromir88 and made the decision not to analyze myself. Please cast suspicion on me because of this. I assure you, Feamir88's lack of examination is entirely my fault and I should be lynched because of it.

If you're innocent, I think the best thing you can do is go along with trying to help us pull off a double-lynching that includes yourself, but we'll see how the day progresses.
What do you think I'm trying to do? I already said I'll vote how the group wants me to, including for myself, but I certainly want to make sure that the group is well-informed and knows what it wants.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Before I get into a detailed analysis of Fea, let me sum up my general thoughts on each of the three of you. I did a thorough, post-by-post analysis of Underhill yesterDay, so I will not repeat myself. In none of his posting or voting did I see any sign of wolvish behaviour. Next to me, he's the person I think most likely to be innocent. If I'm wrong on him (and mormegil said something similar), I'm a very poor WW player and deserve to die - virtually only, of course!

Enca has topped my list of werewolf candidates for days. Boromir pushed her off my radar temporarily with his seer ruse, but her confused voting did nothing to dispel my suspicion. The only thing that could possibly speak for her innocence is the fact that she has not waited until the end to vote, a behavioral pattern I would expect from a werewolf. However, whether by genuine blundering or on purpose, she did not cooperate with the voting plan set up by the majority yesterDay.

Fea has waited until the end to vote, which could be interpreted as wolvish manipulation; however, it could also be the action of a control freak who wants to ensure that her side wins by voting late to make her voice count. She has played with the aspect of being confusing and hard to pin down, which could also be interpreted both ways. Boromir thought she was being set up as a suspect by the wolves, which is possible. However, she herself told us that we should consider her most dangerous when we have come to think her innocent!

Her cooperativeness, both yesterDay and toDay, speak positively for her innocence, but I'm not willing to let her off the hook yet. Fea's intelligent and gutsy enough to put on a cheeky front and attempt a last, desperate bluff to save her hide, if she should be a wolf. Please consider my continued suspicion of you a compliment, m'dear!

I will be back with that analysis soon.

One additional note concerning the voting - as there are only four of us now, we can vote earlier than the deadline. It shouldn't be too hard to reach a decision within the next couple of hours, when everyone is here. I'm willing to trust Underhill with the final vote.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Now my feeling is that we ought to do a single lynching and make it Encaitare. If she's innocent she deserves to die and if she guilty she deserves to die but I just can't shake the thought that she, being a wolf, thought that I was going to vote for her, which I can see why, and thought that a 'genuine' mistake was her only chance of survival. Comically I probably wasn't going to vote for her because I was thinking that she was possibly innocent.
I know, I'm not supposed to analyze Enca, but I found this post (yesterDay) very interesting. morm has been a good player, and he may very well have been right with this idea!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm trying to find out where we went wrong yesterDay. In post #292, Fea was still suggesting the double-lynching of Boro and Enca, which I also suggested. So did morm, originally. When did we get off-track, choosing tgwbs?! tgwbs supported the double-lynching of Boro and Enca in post #299.

Then morm backed off the two of them, thinking that the combination wasn't good. It looks to me like it was Boro who, in post #309, started the bandwagon that led to tgwbs' downfall. Three posts later, tgwbs says he's willing to be lynched. Huh??

Underhill then did an analysis of tgwbs that gave the hunt some considerable impetus. However, very soon after that, the guy gave himself up by that suicidal vote. I can't find any wolvish influence in that wrong decision we made - it was a combination of unfortunate incidents, apparently!

It looks to me like tgwbs' rather random votes and failing explanations were merely the way a spontaneous person reacts, a sudden change of mind without the communication of a logical explanation that we others could understand.

[Encaitare]

I'm back. I'll be starting the analysis of Esty now.

[Mister Underhill]

Well, I wasn't planning to do a real in-depth analysis of Fea, but I got into her posts pretty deeply after all. Here's some analysis:

#74 -- Agrees to have "seen something" with Eomer.

Claims to have found "Two known innocents or two known wolves." but doesn't expound on this now or later, as far as I can tell, though I think she hints later that she doesn't want to reveal gifted if she's spotted them, see:

#95 -- "But if I explain my suspicions, I run the risk of getting some people I'd like to keep alive killed off. That's why vagueness makes me happy."

#113 -- "My two suspects, for little reason besides tweaking my nerves, are B88 and LMP." Don't know what bugs me about this exactly -- it just seems a pretty flip way of casting suspicion.

"I'm honored by your opinion of my capabilities, but you're wrong on me. Just because I'm fully capable of pulling off any depth bluff I feel like (most of which include no true work, simply alluding to one and letting your imagination do the work for me) doesn't mean I am."

"I mean... the last part is elaboration, but if you're so confident in my wolvery, you can give me the benefit of the doubt (after all, logic favors me in that I've got a higher likelihood of being innocent than guilty) and have confidence in my skills as an innocent." Her skills as an innocent have only succeeded in drawing a lot of suspicion on herself and accusing innocents. That she hasn't played a stronger innocent game in itself makes me suspicious of her.

Through several of these early posts, she generally toys and teases about the possibility of her being a wolf. This doesn't seem like sound strategy for an innocent wolf, but then again it may be her personality.

#136 -- "I think I'll vote B88 tonight, due to the fact that he works too much like me, and I make myself nervous. Seriously, if I was playing with me in a game, I'd be the first to bandwagon myself." Esty has mentioned this attitude, which recurs in a couple of posts.

This next one is key, and may contain a revealing slipup:

#137 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422956&postcount=137)-- Fea Sets up what she thought was a possible B88/Ang double-lynch, but doesn't take responsibility for it, leaving Lhuna to tie-break (or not). Gives excuses for not hanging in til the end of voting as she mentioned she might do earlier. Her tie actually would have lynched Cailin, but since she seems to have been mistaken, we can't credit her with this. She may have actually been trying to save Cailin. This seems big and I don't know why it wasn't noticed at the time. morm actually gives her credit for seeming less suspicious based on how her vote would have actually turned out, rather than analyzing how she thought it would turn out. Fea certainly didn't call attention to the mistake until much later (see below). Instead she gives a long post in #153 about how we should expect the wolves to do anything.
This seems to be a tactic she employs -- floats a theory, then lets your "imagination do the work" -- quick to revise if she's called on it.

Firefoot in #156, of the voting situation Fea created -- "Fea - I could go either way. While I haven't seen anything outstandingly suspicious about her, I wouldn't expect to; nor would I put anything past her. If she was an innocent, she honestly wouldn't know about any of the three (Ang, Cailin, and Borormir); and if she were a wolf her vote for Boromir basically says that she doesn't care which of those three dies and gives the remaining person another option so as not to be overtly protecting Cailin."

FF also seems to have missed Fea's misunderstanding; otherwise her read matches mine -- that Fea made a vote which (she thought) would help protect Cailin but wasn't so obvious as to cast the last deciding vote.
Form's #165 analysis of Fea's vote reinforces the fiction that Fea knew Cailin would have died in a tie, and not Ang.

#166 -- "You should all suspect me simply because there is no proof in my innocence. My word is obviously not good, as if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth and letting you think I was lying." The bold rubs me the wrong way. "...not good enough" I would have bought. One of those wolfish unconscious slips?

#185 -- Fea brings up the mistake -- over 40 posts later. Maybe she figured she had better bring it up before someone else finally found it. She sure let a lot of time and assumptions go by before she pointed it out, though. Also, Formendacil posted five minutes later, meaning Fea's "admission" post wasn't sitting around at the bottom of the thread for very long. One wolf helping another fly under the radar?

#192 -- Form mentions Fea as "one of his top suspects" but without much reasoning, then votes for me. Wolf disassociating from wolf?

Hard to say what to make of the voting record. I tried to compare Fea's votes to the votes of the known wolves to look for signs of collusion -- with ambiguous results.

On Day One, they're spaced in a way that could equal Fea-wolf. If Fea is a wolf, then she and Form voted very close together on Day Two, which could be a strategy to throw wolf hunters off. Space it out on Day One, bunch it up on Day Two. Fea's relatively early vote on Day Two is a bit suspicious, considering her repeated claims that she's up til all hours and that she prefers to hold her vote in case she spots wolvish behavior.

On the other hand, Form's Day Three vote for her would be risky if they were working together. Could be a bold move, could be read as tending towards innocence. But then again, it wouldn't have been that bold -- everyone was buying into the "Fea set up" theory by then. Confounding, as situations in this game so often are.

In #208, Fea herself was the one who laid the groundwork for the "Fea-setup-by-wolves" theory. "At the moment, I can't avoid being impressed with the wolves' strategy. I'm not sure what the entirety of it is just yet, but I'm impressed. The kill of LMP was... I'd say unexpected, but if I'd been paying more attention (blast my obscenely large amounts of [wenching] homework) to the game, I'd probably have expected it. Who garnered a large number of votes already yesterday? Me. Who kept pointing her sadly inaccurate finger at LMP? Also me. Who looks most guilty because now he's dead? I'll let you fill in that answer."

This all sounds a bit strained to me. Would the wolves really go to all this trouble to set up Fea? Or was their kill of lmp based on suspicion of him as the Seer? The latter seems more likely.

In #238, says she "played with the assumption that [Eomer] was Seer before dropping the idea like a bad habit. I'd rather be assume I'm wrong than actually be wrong again." Her thinking Eomer was the Seer may explain Eomer's death: remember post #166? "...if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth..."

In #262, Fea floated the idea of double-lynching me with Form -- take down an innocent with her fellow wolf? -- but didn't push hard for it. Could be innocent enough. Says she suspects Form, but I don't recall her talking about him much, and later she says she thinks I'm a bigger problem and pushes for me with only a few votes left to go. Once again gets in her vote relatively early with a somewhat suspicious double-post/dubious explanation: "Sorry to double-post, but I've only just realized that I'd like to go to bed and then sleep really late tomorrow, as it's my only day off from classes and I need the rest." Hrmm...

She got in the first post of the day after Firefoot's death, quickly floating the theory that Firefoot dreamed of her and cleared her (#276). Backtracks in #286 after morm challenges her on her interpretation.

That brings me more or less up to yesterday.

I have to say my gut is telling me Fea. That error on the Day One voting really reinforces the gut feelings I've had about her for some time. If she's innocent, she'll vote early -- maybe even first -- for Enca to help us try to set up the double. It's the only way to clear herself now. Then we'll know if Enca tries to foil it that she's the guilty one.

Fea, if you're innocent, I urge you to vote now for Enca. Don't wait.

[Mister Underhill]

Cross-posting -- Esty, even though that self-vote by tgwbs raised a big red-flag for me, he was still relatively low on my suspicion list from yesterday. I was rather surprised when morm put him down as the #1-to-be-lynched when he posted his plan in #347-8. If Shorty hadn't of self-voted, or if morm had seemed less certain, I would have at least discussed that choice.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I have to say my gut is telling me Fea. That error on the Day One voting really reinforces the gut feelings I've had about her for some time. If she's innocent, she'll vote early -- maybe even first -- for Enca to help us try to set up the double. It's the only way to clear herself now. Then we'll know if Enca tries to foil it that she's the guilty one.

Fea, if you're innocent, I urge you to vote now for Enca. Don't wait.
Thanks for that analysis, Underhill! I've been reading through her posts as well, and what others said about her, but I don't need to add to what you've posted. There is one comment by seer Firefoot concerning her: For me, Fea is just sort of hanging between innocent and guilty - I can't make heads or tails of her.

I agree with your appeal to Fea - or Enca, if she should be innocent - to vote first, following our plan. I'll add a few comments when I'm back - duty calls briefly.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++ Encai

Better? Now I'd like to address a few of the things you said, Underhill, but would it seem like I'm trying too hard to cover my tracks if I do? I can at least explain why I wasn't up for the narration on those nights: on one, I was having trouble with my asthma so I ended up actually using my inhaler for the first time in months and going to bed early. On another, I had a huge Psych assignment due the next morning that I really needed to finish (especially as my grade in Psych needs to go up several letter grades to keep my parents from killing me), so even though I was up until the wee hours, I was in the library.

There are several other things I'd like to get at, such as my "accusation" of Underhill, but that has to wait, as I've got a rather important and potentially long-winded meeting in 15 minutes.

If you'd be so kind, please don't anybody else vote until I get back and get in some good quality posting? I'd hate for y'all to vote without hearing what I have to say.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fea has waited until the end to vote, which could be interpreted as wolvish manipulation; however, it could also be the action of a control freak who wants to ensure that her side wins by voting late to make her voice count.

Control freak, I assure you. I know that my vote isn't a wolf's, so I like to keep it handy in case of potential shenanigans. With the exception of just voting Encai, which I'd already promised I'd do if the majority (or in this case, 50%, which isn't an official majority, but we can't rely on her to insist I kill her) of the group wanted me to.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Bravo, Fea!! Well done, as now Underhill and I can implement an emergency plan, should Enca vote for one of us.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

But what if one of you is a wolf?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm not, and I'm willing to trust Underhill is not either. So much so, that I will let him have the last vote if he would like.

[Mister Underhill]

It does make me feel much better. I trust Esty as far as it is possible to trust someone in this game without knowing, and your vote makes me feel a lot better. We may have cornered our wolf; let's see what happens when Enca returns.

I have no problem waiting for you to post before any of the rest of us vote.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Now that the first vote has been cast for Enca, I can propound my emergency plan, Underhill. Should she be the wolf and vote for one of us, then you or I can vote for Fea, making it a three-way tie, of which the first and last person would then be lynched. The other of us would refrain from voting so as to make the plan work. As we all voted and contributed yesterDay, I'm sure the phantom couldn't break his own rule and kill one of us for a strategic non-vote on this last day!

*eagerly awaits Enca's vote...

[Mister Underhill]

It's a good plan. If Enca tries to hold her vote til close to the deadline, we'll be forced to vote for her and take our chances on Fea -- but that will also be an almost certain sign of Enca's guilt. The villagers may pull this one out after all, unless Esty is pulling a n00b master-stroke that will go down in Werewolf history! I'm gonna thrash you in effigy if you're the wolf, Esty.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

...a thrashing I would deserve but need not fear!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm here now, but getting tired rapidly. Shall I stick it out for awhile so that we can finish our voting and all get some sleep, or will it take too long for Enca and Fea to be able to post? If that's the case, I wouldn't mind sleeping a few hours and coming back later - or rather, early...

[Mister Underhill]

Do what you think is best, Esty. I'm starting to get a feeling that we've cornered Enca and she's gonna draw it out til the last minute, hoping to create some confusion right before the deadline. If you decide to sleep now, be sure your alarm clock is set.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Looks like it, Undé. I'll do that then. See you in a few hours!

[Encaitare]

Finally! My mom stopped making me do college applications. I've been trying to work on the analysis of Esty when she wasn't looking. Just letting you know I'm back.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm almost back, but not quite. You remember that potentially long-winded meeting at 4:15? He wrote down what I required (a whole nine words) and I was then there for another hour and a half. How is that fair? He's not even my teacher! So now I have homework, and I swear I'm not dragging this out, but this is art homework and if it gets any darker, none of my photos will take well. I'll be back a bit later. I'm going to guess late and say 8:30. With luck, it will be quite a lot before then.

Esty: I like your plan with the voting. If you are a wolf, you can bet your bottom that I will be torn between never forgiving you and holding you in the highest esteem humanly possibly for sheer ingenuity and clever avoidance of any true suspicion.

[macho voice] I'll be back. [/macho voice]

[Encaitare]

Okay. So I tried to do the analysis of Esty. And I came up with a few good points as to how she might be guilty, but I wasn't convinced. Remember what I said in my last post about how I wouldn't put it past the phantom to make a newbie a wolf? Well, no matter how hard I try (and no matter how badly I want to), I cannot find anything truly incriminating for either of them. The remaining wolf must then be Fea. I'm especially inclined to think this because of Mr. U's analysis.

If I were the last wolf, I would just go ahead and say so since it seems I will surely be lynched toDay. If you still want to go ahead with the double-lynching of Fea and myself, I will do my part.

I don't care what Fea-Wolf wants about waiting; I've had to wait long enough to be able to post. *grumbles about the trials and tribulations of RL*

++ FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL

[Mister Underhill]

Well now I'm scared. Either one of you is a wolf bluffing it out to the bitter end, or Esty really has pulled it off. Either way, the die is cast. I may as well cast my vote now.

++Feanor

That leaves it up to you, Esty to tie it up with an Enca vote. I'll admit that even now, here at the end of all things, I'm not sure who it is.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Kind of you, Encai, to heed my begged request.

I suppose there is now no real point for me to "convict" Underhill, however I still intend to toss out a few random comments that I haven't come to grips with.

The most obviously innocent villagers are myself and Esty
Which is such dumb reasoning based on the pure chance of role assignation. They have the same probability of everyone else.

He mentions that we shouldn't trust the ones that consistently vote late, and consistently, he does. In post 302, he was one of the first, if not the first, to point out that TGWBS had some wolfish tendencies. In his next post, he analyzes him. Would we have been as worried about the guy who be dead if he hadn't? I'm not sure.

Cross-posting -- Esty, even though that self-vote by tgwbs raised a big red-flag for me, he was still relatively low on my suspicion list from yesterday. I was rather surprised when morm put him down as the #1-to-be-lynched when he posted his plan in #347-8. If Shorty hadn't of self-voted, or if morm had seemed less certain, I would have at least discussed that choice.
He said this today about how he wasn't that worried about TGWBS until the self-vote and morm's 347 plan, but I was remembering that post 302 when Underhill first pointed out his suspicions.

Quote:
I think Fea almost has to be on the list. If she were an innocent villager, she could have been a lot more helpful; instead, each day has seen her surrounded by confusion and doubt. She makes statements one way, then has to recant or back up her statements with more explanation. She may be innocent after all, but she's on almost everyone's list.
I'd also like to address this: how can one be considered helpful when one is automatically considered a huge threat and not to be trusted? I gave what help I could, offering strategies, tips, suspects, random observations. The only reason that there is confusion and doubt is because you have it. I didn't give it to you. You developed that all on your own. I don't recant and/or back up my statements with bad reasoning. Apparently there isn't a person in the world that is capable of following my line of thought. So I say something that I think is obvious, and then people tell me it isn't, so I have to rephrase. Occasionally I am wrong and have to correct myself. Sorry if admitting to be wrong seems wolfish.

Quote by Underhill:
I was leaning toward an innocent Enca before the "mistake". I'd go for a Shorty-B88 double.
So at this point, he's not thinking that Encai is innocent, and yet he passes up a lynching opportunity in favor of TGWBS?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Esty, it's important you vote Encai. If you are a wolf, it doesn't matter. If you aren't, we have got to have this double... it's our highest chance... Let's just hope we don't receive a "mwah ha ha ha ha" from Esty when she comes back. :eek:

[Encaitare]

Well, I'm out. Time for Enca to get some sleep. Whether Esty votes for Fea or for me, I will sleep well knowing that we most likely will have gotten our wolf.

And if Esty is the wolf... wow. :D

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm glad you are here with me, Undé, here at the end of all things.

Enca, Fea, whichever of you is the wolf, cornered and trapped, you have my greatest respect for a game well-played to the very end!

Here is my vote. Eru help us all!

++ENCAITARE

[Mister Underhill]

Which is such dumb reasoning based on the pure chance of role assignation. They have the same probability of everyone else.True in theory. And poorly phrased by me -- I should have said something more like the most likely to be innocent. My reasoning was that phantom wasn't likely to make the noobs the wolves among such experienced players. It would be like, well, tossing us to the wolves. I may well find out how dumb that reasoning was... we'll soon see. Anyway, you've got to start from somewhere on Day One.

My analysis of Shorty was sincere, as you will soon find out -- if you don't already know. I certainly wasn't the first to suspect he might be up to something, but I admit some of my analysis probably did help get the ball rolling against him. Still, you'll just have to take me at my word that I had stronger suspicions against others until he self-voted.

I just can't think of any good reason for an innocent to do something like that. This is a numbers game. This may be the voice of inexperience talking, but it seems that it might even be worth risking letting a gifted be lynched rather than offering yourself, or worse, voting yourself, if you're innocent. I can't think of any reason to do it other than that you're a wolf in a desperate situation making a last gambit to create confusion. Imagine how my head swam when two players in a row did it! I'd also like to address this: how can one be considered helpful when one is automatically considered a huge threat and not to be trusted?Well, clearly you have a reputation. I didn't have any preconceptions about you, especially starting out. But it seems to me that if you turn out to be innocent, then you played far too coy a game, unneccessarily drawing suspicion on yourself by hinting that you might be the wolf again and again, making votes for flip reasons, etc. I appreciate that if people are automatically threatened by you in a game, you're in sort of a situation, but from my point of view, you often created confusion and doubt when you could have been more straightforward.

Also, if you're innocent, I think you have to be sure to check your facts before floating theories or making accusations. When you have to correct yourself, it makes you look like you're running stuff up the flagpole to see if someone salutes. Your error on the voting in Day One that I caught today, for instance, really looks bad. If you're innocent, your big advantage is that you are innocent. Only the wolves need to run the risks of deception and lies. The more careful the villagers are, the easier it is to root out the wolves. Sloppy villagers = a dead village.

And in addition to all that, what can I say -- it's a tough game, I had strong doubts about you, I may have occasionally reached to try to make my points. If the dust settles and we've caught the wolf, we can kiss and make up later. Except you'll be dead. But you see what I mean. ;)

If, on the other hand, you're a wolf, I have to hand it to you for being able to openly draw so much suspicion but still slip the noose time and again.

Anywho, we'll soon find out what's what. The suspense is killing me.

[Mister Underhill]

Cross-posted with Esty -- good to be the last two noobs left standing, even if it does turn out that you outplayed me! :D

You see? I'm still not sure!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

The suspense is killing me.
Me too. phantom, are you going to draw this all out to the deadline? We've all voted.

[the phantom]

phantom, are you going to draw this all out to the deadline? We've all voted.
Oh, I suppose I could start my wrap-up posts early, but there will certainly be delays between each one. After all, I'm making them up on the spot while also tyring to watch the World Series.

The four villagers who are still "alive" can continue yapping for a bit while I get things prepared.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Oh I'll yap. You just watch me yap.
And the World Series? Now who cares about that? We've got a village to know the saving or destruction of!

You know what would be great? If the wolf decided to take away all of the suspense that our supreme Mod God is enjoying dangling over our heads by coming clean. ;) :D

[the phantom]

You know what would be great? If the wolf decided to take away all of the suspense that our supreme Mod God is enjoying dangling over our heads by coming clean.
If that happens then I'll kill absolutely everyone and you will be witness to the first ever MODERATOR WINS ending.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

:p

[the phantom]

From the start of the day, Feanor of the Peredhil and Encaitare knew they would most likely be lynched. But neither of them wanted to die. They both tried to convince Mister Underhill and Estelyn to only lynch the other candidate.

Fea made a decent effort, and also tried to point a finger at Estelyn and Mister Underhill, but that simply made the pair more determined to include her in the double lynch.

Then, Encaitare took her turn.

"Haven't you noticed," began Enca, "That since the wolves arrived, two cows have been killed and eaten every single night? Doesn't that strike you as odd?"

"Werewolves need to eat. I don't see your point, Enca," said Mister Underhill.

"You see," she explained, "If the THREE wolves ate TWO cows the first two nights, why were TWO cows killed and eaten last night when there was only ONE wolf?"

"Yes, that's odd, but what are you trying to say?" responded Esty.

"Well, obviously the final wolf, the one we haven't caught yet, must be eating waaaaaay more than the standard werewolf," continued Enca. "And yet, this last werewolf was able to run with the others just fine, so it obviously wasn't overweight or anything- plus its tracks look a bit thinner than the other wolves, which means that it must be trim despite its diet, and thus it must have an unbelievable metabolism."

"Well, I suppose I could agree with that, but what does that mean?" asked Underhill.

"It means that Fea must be the final wolf! Just think about it. She works in a tavern and has easy access to fattening food and beer, and goodness knows she makes the most of it. She's always snacking and drinking, isn't she? But yet, she somehow maintains a ridiculously trim and fit figure. Isn't that a pretty compelling case?"

"So, you think Feanor of the Peredhil is our thin feral feeder? Pooh!" said Esty. "You are really stretching now, Enca."

"I don't know," said Mister Underhill. "She may be on to something. But even so, I think it is still our safest bet to kill both Fea and Enca."

"Well, then let's get it done and over with," said Esty.

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

Estelyn, Enca, and Fea stood in the grass outside Mister Underhill's hut. He emerged with two bows and two quivers of arrows.

"All right, Fea and Enca, you two go stand over there by those two poles, right in front of my watch stone. Esty, you take this bow," he ordered.

Fea and Enca slowly made their way to their positions. Now that the moment had come, both were shaking and sobbing, and barely able to stand long enough for Mister Underhill to tie them to the poles.

After he was finished, he walked back to where Esty was standing. "Can you shoot an arrow?" he asked her.

"I've shot one before. I can manage," she answered.

"All right," he said. Then he leaned in to Esty and whispered, "We don't want to shoot them one at a time. Only one of them can be a wolf. The other is innocent. If we kill the innocent first the wolf might break its bonds and then rush the two of us, and two might not be enough to fend it off. Neither of us is a great warrior or hunter. With three of us, on the other hand, we'd stand a chance, which is why maybe the wolf is waiting for the innocent to be killed to make its move. Also, it may be trying to put us off guard by cooperating."

"That makes sense," whispered back Esty, "So how are we going to do this?"

"On the count of three, we'll both raise our bows and shoot."

"Okay. You count."

"One..."

Esty and Mister Underhill looked at each other and nodded.

"Two..."

They both took an arrow from their quiver and set it upon their bowstrings.

"Three..."

The executioners raised their bows and pulled the strings taut. Fea and Enca screamed out in fear and shock.

Mister Underhill and Estelyn released...

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

The targets were too close to miss.

An arrow thudded into Fea and Enca's midsections.

After a bit of weak moaning, both young ladies' heads drooped and did not move. Mister Underhill and Estelyn stood silently and watched for one...two...three... four seconds. As time approached a minute, Mister Underhill began trembling.

Finally, unable to stand the tension any longer, Mister Underhill cried out "YOU!!" and swiftly snatched another arrow, placed it on his string, and aimed it at Esty.

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

But Esty had also snatched an arrow and had placed it on her bowstring. Her arrow was aimed between Mister Underhill's eyes, and his arrow for Esty's heart. They were so close the bows were nearly touching.

Both of them were breathing heavily, and were having difficulty keeping their bows still.

"You've been the wolf all along!" cried Mister Underhill.

"Me?! You're the wolf!" objected Esty.

"Don't even try to play that card!" shouted Mister Underhill. "Enca and Fea are dead, and they didn't change. We are the only two left, and I know I am not a wolf, so it must be you!"

"That's the same thing I am thinking right now!" Esty shouted back.

Mister Underhill slackened his bow just a bit, but then suddenly tightened it again. "No! I'm not letting you trick me! You can't talk your way out of this! If I die then you die with me!" he growled.

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

Suddenly, Fea crashed into them like a ton of bricks, knocking their bows to the ground and sending them backwards several paces.

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

Esty landed with Fea right on top of her.

"Help!" she cried. "It's Fea!!"

Mister Underhill seized Fea and threw her with all his might.

Her dead body landed at the feet of Encaitare, who then, for the second time, picked her up and threw her at Underhill and Esty, knocking them down once again.

"No, I insist- keep her, Mister Underhill," snarled Enca as her body began to change shape. "You killed her, after all! Esty on the other hand- you shouldn't have had so much faith in her archery skills. She missed my heart completely- and now, you will both pay for that mistake!"

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

Encaitare tore the arrow out of her middle and flung it at Mister Underhill. It pierced him in the thigh, and he fell with cry. Encaitare then hunched down and began slowly creeping towards her victims. Esty sat on the ground with eyes open wide, too scared to move or scream.

Mister Underhill threw his head back and cried to the empty sky, "Eru! Deliver us from this Werewolf!!"

Encaitare pulled back her clawed hand, preparing to slash Mister Underhill, but suddenly two thick arms grabbed her around the waist.

"What?!" she yelled, as she was lifted off her feet.

It was Mister Underhill's watch stone.

"May Eru be praised!" shouted Mister Underhill.

Encaitare struggled with all her might. She kicked the watch stone, and scraped at it with her claws, but nothing could break its hold. Mister Underhill painfully crawled forward and picked up his bow and arrow.

"You won't recover from this shot!" he said as he loosed the shaft. It flew straight into the roof of Enca's open mouth and pierced her evil brain.

The villagers had won!

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

"So, they found the wolf, M'lord?" asked Mortakh.

"Yes, they did indeed," answered Sauron with a laugh.

"But why aren't you upset?" asked the orc captain. "You are usually quite angry when your wolves are defeated."

"Why am I not upset? Well, Mortakh, the two survivors are probably going to travel to another region, and find a village to become a part of," answered Sauron.

"Yes, Master," said Mortakh, "But how is the two of them escaping good?"

Sauron threw back his head and laughed for a moment. Mortakh waited for the explanation. "Mortakh- our wolf was shot with an arrow, and then she took that same arrow and hurled it at that watch stone maker, and it stabbed him in the thigh."

"All right, but what does that mean?" questioned Mortakh.

"That watch stone maker was cursed, Mortakh! And so, since he was stabbed with an arrow that had the blood of a werewolf on it-"

"He's going to become a werewolf!" finished the orc.

"Exactly! Without my power overshadowing him it might take a while, but trust me, he will turn within the next month," said Sauron with delight.

"Well, why not concentrate your thought on him and turn him now?" asked Mortakh.

"I want him to find a new village and get settled in first. I don't want him changing when he's still out in the wild. He'll do more damage in a village," answered Sauron.

"You really are an evil one, Lord Sauron," said Mortakh with admiration.

"Yes I am," said Sauron.

[the phantom]

Werewolf XII, Erbar Telamarth, is officially over

[Formendacil]

Werewolf XII, Erbar Telamarth, is officially over

Thank Eru!

Ack!

What a BRUTAL game! And a most unfair one...

We Wolves suffered two MAJOR setbacks in our hopes for a victory. The first, of course, was Eomer pegging Cailin as his first target, and us pegging him. That meant, of course, that the village immediately had three innocents around which to rally- three less people to cast suspicion on, three less people to vote for, and, most dangerously, three opinions that would be listened to and respected.

That done, I started immediately to come under suspicion, and because it was the Three Innocents, I had no way to escape. If Morm, Firefoot, and LMP had not been known innocents, I would have had a chance... But as it was...

And then there was Enca's slip of yesterday. At least, I assume it was a slip. After all, if she had done as they asked, there would still have been two casualties, neither of them hers. But the slip totally ruined her chances of surviving the final day.

The last two days were brutal to watch, by the way. As flattering as it was to see my posts given such weight, I couldn't stand the agony of not knowing if Enca could pull it off. The double innocents lynching with her survival had me high for hours, but I knew that the chances of her surviving the last day were axed with that horrible accident...

All in all, an excellent game, and kudos has to be given to the Phantom for his awesome modding- and player list. The mod scenes were VERY well done, being on-topic Tolkien, humourous, and VERY suspenceful. The great number of them was also awesome.

Sadly, I am now a nervous wreck, thanks to this game, and I highly doubt if my sanity will be returning any time soon. If you see it, send it this way, would you?

~Michael A. Joosten - Now affectionately known as "Weredacil"~

[mormegil]

Wow what a game!

Thanks to everybody I had a great time. Phantom wonderful job modding, and Enca wonderful job at irritating by ruining my plan :p . This will go down as one of my favorite games. I just also need to give Kudos to Eomer for giving us such a big break at the beginning.

I really think that everyone did a wonderful job and I'm amazed at how much talking we had especially on my last day...oh and incidentally I apologize for my 68 posts :eek: :rolleyes:

Thanks again all

Cheers.

[the phantom]

Living-

Estelyn Telcontar (Ordinary)
Mister Underhill (Cursed)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling Werewolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by Werewolves on Night 3)
Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)
Firefoot (Seer- slashed, beaten, stabbed, and snapped in half by Werewolf on Night 4)
Boromir88 (Ordinary- couldn't stand knuckle-headed villagers any longer and commited suicide on Day 4)
the guy who be short (Ordinary- got fed up with accusations and defenses and commited suicide on Day 4)
mormegil (Ordinary- as he predicted he was mauled by a Werewolf on Night 5)
Feanor of the Peredhil (Ordinary- killed in an attempted double lynching on Day 5)
Encaitare (Werewolf- thwarted by watch stone and slain on Day 5)


Score: Villagers- 2, Werewolves- 0

[Mister Underhill]

Well, a dubious victory -- only two survivors, and one of them cursed, oy vey -- but a win's a win, right? I knew the watchstone would come through in the end!

Thanks to everyone for making my first Werewolf game so deliciously excruciating, and thanks especially to the phantom for the invite. I'd popped in to take peeks at a few Werewolf games in the past months and was starting to wonder how I might get an invite to the party and learn the secret handshake (++[whatever]).

There's a ton of rep to be handed out here -- great leadership late in the game by morm, a bold ploy yesterDay by Enca that almost pulled it off, top flight moderation by our host, excellent play on the part of all our gifted, and many more -- but that will all have to wait til tomorrow. I'm exhausted, and I'm looking forward to the first safe night's sleep in many days.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Good grief. I hope you know, tp, that I very seriously considered writing "mwahahahaha" at the end just to mess with the village, but I wasn't sure how many live'uns were still up.

PS: tp: due to your truly suspenseful narrations, it is now 2:05 AM, and I have an 8:00 class. :D

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Many, many thanks!

1. To phantom for his invitation and fantastic moderation - this ending had me racing between RL and PC to refresh the page at least every ten minutes!

2. To Underhill, my fellow survivor, for trusting me till the bitter end.

3. To the wolves, for not getting the cursed Underhill! I can't believe that that villager actually reached the end without endangering us.

4. To my fellow innocent villagers, for the great cooperation that led to a joint effort success!


I'm not sure if I ever want to play another Werewolf game - it consumed time, creative energy, and sleep! But I will not say the Day is done, nor bid the Mod farewell...

[Lhunardawen]

Leave it to us to leave the two newbies alive at the end. Great job, everyone! And of course, thank you ever so much, Lord Phantom, for the invite. And my deepest apologies for being such a worthless healer, by the way...

...well, at least I was one less villager to worry about. Right?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

this ending had me racing between RL and PC to refresh the page at least every ten minutes!
Mine was easier: I was doing homework at my desk. Every several pages of Aristotle and Epictetus, I'd take a break from reading about what it takes for an ancient Greek not to stress out and refresh. Like I said in the beginning... I tend to be up 'til the wee hours.

Esty: thanks for not being a wolf. :D

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Wow, I can see you all again! It's so nice to be visible - I wonder if the WW game is a modern version of the One Ring?! :eek:

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Wow, I can see you all again! It's so nice to be visible - I wonder if the WW game is a modern version of the One Ring?!
Certainly allows for a lot of suspicion and corruption...

Now... who thinks that an all-nighter would work out better than trying to run tomorrow on less than five hours of sleep? :eek:

[the phantom]

Thanks to everyone for playing in my game.

I wanted this to be an amazingly memorable game, and I think it will be. Well- I'll remember it anyway.

I'll say a lot more than that when I do my usual post-game summary (yes, I'm even going to do one as a mod ;) ).

I can't recall if there are any more, but there are at least three or four little hidden things I tossed out during the game.

If you have found them already, or find them in the next day or so, I'll give you a hearty pat on the back and inform you that you have way too much time on your hands.

Once again, thanks to everyone for making this game top notch. It was fun for me to watch.
who thinks that an all-nighter would work out better than trying to run tomorrow on less than five hours of sleep?
Whatever works best for you. Just don't do what I do when I'm tired- skip my morning classes and sleep in. :p

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Whatever works best for you. Just don't do what I do when I'm tired- skip my morning classes and sleep in. :p
No go... I like my comp class too much. Looks like trying to sleep is going to win out.

TP: is one of the things when you had TGWBS look pointedly at Form, saying that we ought to lynch him?

[the phantom]

is one of the things when you had TGWBS look pointedly at Form, saying that we ought to lynch him?
No- I didn't hint at roles or anything like that (at least I hope I didn't).

[Estelyn Telcontar]

If not clues, then what kind of hidden things?

[Lhunardawen]

I can't recall if there are any more, but there are at least three or four little hidden things I tossed out during the game.

If you have found them already, or find them in the next day or so, I'll give you a hearty pat on the back and inform you that you have way too much time on your hands. Aww..and I thought there will be a generous reward... :(

[the phantom]

If not clues, then what kind of hidden things?
There were things that I called people in my narration that had a little "trick" to them, you might say.

And there were a couple of names that should've had a little ;) next to them, too.

[Cailín]

And so it ends.

Special compliments of course to Mr. Underhill and Estelyn for such a great first time game, though I had hardly expected otherwise.

Ai, it was indeed a harsh game for us wolves. I will never have a sleepover on Day 1 again. I should have said immediately that I would not have time to read the discussion and I would just vote for Eomer anyway, if nothing major happened, because I was afraid a none-vote would cause the wrath of Sir Phantom (who did an amazing job by the way, I don't think there was ever before a game with such a great narration). Anyway, I was very sad to die so early, but I think I had it coming. ;)

Just one more note. You, Mormegil, are a very wise and lucky man. However, your reasoning that between my first two posts I had had a private conversation with one of my fellow wolves was not at all true. Actually, I think the option of communicating during the Day was never used by us wolves. Also, if you look closer at the times of those posts, you'll see that - with the timezone difference - it would have been highly unlikely I could have conversed with Enca or Form. I just wanted to point that out, as that would have been my defense if I had not been so brutally slain by that sneaky hunter Eomer. ;)

Enca, I almost thought you'd have pulled it off, with the mass suicide yesterDay. That was ever so amusing. I was praying you'd find the cursed tonight, now that would have been a twist.

All in all, this game makes a great read, with all its eloquent players. Thank you all. :)

[Anguirel]

A tremendous game. Valiantly striven. I did not fall unavenged...and I followed the game eagerly after my downfall...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Bravo!

(Villagers had it 'in the bag', even though my 'devious and fiendishly clever' wolf turned out to be as innocent as....you know.)

So let me see.

Well done villagers! Estelyn and Mr Underhill – fantastic game! I had the nagging doubt all along that one of you was taking the village for a ride with all this trust that was afforded to you; I am very happy that there was nothing wolvish (or, in Underhill's case, wolvish enough yet) about your deeds. Well done!

All the villagers contributed well. Formendacil is absolutely correct when he bemoans the wolves' bad luck at the start, which, as he points out, led to the unveiling of three pretty much known innocents. Still, it's no more than you foul lupines deserved! :p

Especial praise goes to Boromir88, who was quite magnificent; and Mormegil, who really took charge of the village towards the end. Lhuna: I'm just really sorry I wasn't around long enough to protect you.

Many thanks also to The Phantom, whose moderating was brilliant and highly original. It was a gripping game from start to finish.

One more thing: A nice twist to this game, wasn't it Cailín? I think we're just meant to be together. :p

Edit: And a delightful touch from Anguirel and The Phantom, concerning the sword. Now, Anguirel, there is a chance that our tombs may lie side-by-side and no foe shall dare to walk nigh! :D

[Firefoot]

Great game, everybody! For those of you who were wondering, my dreams were Morm, Boromir, and Mr. U., and the night I was killed - Encai. Watching the rest of you blunder around, killing tgwbs and Boromir, was insane. Telepathy doesn't work so very well over the internet, I guess... ;)

Anyhow, I'll probably do something a little bit more in depth later (after school...). That's all I really had to say.

[the guy who be short]

I can't believe I ever stopped playing these. :D I don't think I can really ay how much I loved that.

What, out of interest, did "Erbar Telamarth" come from? It's neither Quenya nor Sindarin. I'm interested.

Special praise to Boro88, my suicide buddy, and LMP for his hilarious character, as well a tp's gripping, Middle-Earthian narratives.

I think we should just have killed Fea off at the first. :D

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I think we should just have killed Fea off at the first. :D
Why you people continue to let me live, I'll never know. Yes, I didn't tell a single lie in this game... but how would you know that? I can't for the life of me figure out how I can remain like... the top suspect every single day and yet stay alive until the end almost every time. Somebody want to explain this to me?

[Boromir88]

I'd have to say this was the funnest time I had in a WW game. I wanted to try something different, instead of being a "well-liked" guy. Though I really was...annoyed...at the end, guess I couldn't blame anyone for wanting to be rid of me.

I am seriously going to call phantom "Master Phantom" for his excellently modded game. The narrations were great.

And a few words to Esty...besides my slandering your sewing I don't think I lied once during the game, so you could have taken me at face value. I really did think morm was the seer, since he spotted Cailin, then suddenly went after Formendacil.

And my three predictions at the beginning, I just thought it'd be fun to pick 3 random names, say they were wolves, and see how accurate I was. It did hurt my chances that I named Sauce however. :rolleyes:

An excellently played game from the players and a tip of the hat to Eomer for getting Cailin (what is it that you did see,? that's been puzzling me). Fea, tgwbs, Underhill, and Esty I enjoyed playing with for the first time, it was awesome. :p

(And Ahah Fea, I told you Firefoot dreamed of me. :p !)

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I looked up the "Erbar Telamarth" a few days ago and found Quenya word elements, IIRC, but couldn't really make sense of the combination. Will you explain please, phantom?

What I would like to know, since I'm a newbie just learning how this game goes, is why the wolves chose their victims. Did you know Firefoot was the Seer? If so, what did you see that I didn't? Didn't Boromir fool you with his ruse like he did me and others?

morm, though I hated to see the wolves get you the last night, I am grateful that they didn't go for Underhill! How would we have been able to find out a new wolf?! The past voting record and comments would have been no help at all.

Cross-posted with Boro: Sure, now I know you told the truth, but be honest - had you been a wolf, wouldn't you have said exactly the same things?!

[Boromir88]

What I would like to know, since I'm a newbie just learning how this game goes, is why the wolves chose their victims. Did you know Firefoot was the Seer? If so, what did you see that I didn't? Didn't Boromir fool you with his ruse like he did me and others?
I'd be interested in hearing how Enca spotted Firefoot too. I honestly had no clue, or idea, Firefoot was the Seer.