TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the phantom]

This post does not mark the beginning of the game. This is just the rules.

If you have a question about the rules, please post it within the next 36 hours.

ROLES

Werewolf- There are three Werewolves in this village. Their goal is to reduce the population of the village until it is even with the number of wolves left in the village.

Seer- There is one Seer, and his goal is to help find Wolves with his nightly dreams.

Ranger- There is one Ranger, and his job is to protect the Villagers from the Werewolves at night.

Hunter- There is one Hunter, and his duty is to take a Wolf with him to the grave when he meets his fate.

Cursed Villager- There is one Cursed Villager, but he does not know he is cursed, and so behaves like an Innocent Villager, unless the Wolves choose to kill him during the night, in which case he joins the Wolf team.

Innocent Villager- There are eight Innocent Villagers, and their job is to lynch Werewolves during the day.

RULES FOR ROLES

Werewolf- Each night the Werewolves must select someone to kill and pm the name to me. When someone is killed, his death and role are announced to the village the next morning (except for the Cursed Villager, if he is "killed" he becomes a Wolf and so no one dies that night). The Wolves can pm amongst themselves at ALL times, night and day, to discuss strategy.

Seer- Each night the Seer must select someone to dream about and pm the name to me. I will then pm the Seer back and reveal the role of whoever the Seer chose. The Cursed Villager will appear to be an Innocent Villager to the Seer, unless he has already become a Wolf. If the Seer dreams of the Cursed on the same night the Cursed is turned into a Wolf or any night after that, the Seer will see a Wolf.

Ranger- Each night the Ranger must select someone to protect from the Wolves and pm the name to me. If he picks the same person that the Wolves pick for their kill, that person survives the night. If he protects the Cursed, the Cursed cannot be turned into a Wolf that night. The Ranger cannot protect himself, and he cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

Hunter- The Hunter can, at any time, pm me with the name of a person he believes to be a Wolf. The Hunter can change his pick at any time. If the Hunter is lynched during the day or killed at night, the most recent person he pmed to me will die with him. If the Hunter is afraid of killing an innocent, he can choose to kill no one at all when he dies.

Cursed Villager- The Cursed Villager is exactly like an Innocent Villager, except if the Wolves target him at night he doesn't die, but instead joins the Werewolf team.

VOTING RULES

During the day, every member of the village must form theories about who is a wolf based on accusations, defenses, voting record, and seer hints and then vote to lynch someone.

At the end of the day, whoever has the most votes against him is lynched, and his identity is made known (unless he is the Cursed Villager- the Cursed will appear to be an Innocent Villager, unless of course he has been turned into a Wolf).

Votes are cast like this-
+ + the phantom

Votes cannot be taken back.

In the event of a tie, both candidates are lynched.

If three or more people are tied, then the FIRST and LAST people to reach the total are lynched. This should provide some interesting opportunities for the Wolves to sandwich one of their own between two innocents- and also innocents will factor this voting rule into their suspicions if a triple tie occurs.

Each day, I expect EVERYONE to VOTE, and also to POST.

You MUST-

respond to the accusations and defenses of others OR make your own accusations and defenses OR submit substantial theories on voting patterns and alliances between villagers
vote

If you fail to meet these requirements two days in a row- YOU WILL BE KILLED.

This rule is to force everyone (including the wolves) to open their mouths, and to ensure a lengthy discussion each day.

The reason you play this game is to bluff, double-bluff, and guess who is bluffing and double-bluffing and why they are doing it. The more people open their mouths, the more you can do this.

I want to leave for work and come home to find that the thread is two or three pages longer than when I left!

I WANT TO SEE THEORIES AND ACCUSATIONS FLYING!!!

Now, I understand that it is just about impossible to form a theory on day one since there is no voting record or kills at that point, but I expect you to discuss a bit of strategy.

ABOUT THE NARRATION

Since I am the moderator, I will be narrating the results of each Night and Day. My narration DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING!! In my little stories, villagers will be named and they will say and do things, but what they say and do is NOT meant to be used as EVIDENCE!! It is purely entertainment.

Also, during the course of this game, I would appreciate it if you would refer to me as Lord Phantom, Master Phantom, Sir Phantom, or King Phantom.

I am looking forward to a well played game. You will all receive your roles Saturday night or during the day Sunday.

The players-

Shelob (beggar)
mormegil (messanger)
Cailín (love-potion seller)
the guy who be short (dwarf)
Anguirel (knight errant)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
Lhunardawen (healer)
littlemanpoet (lecherous innkeeper/bartender)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (thieving mercenary)
Formendacil (gong farmer)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)

If you want a certain job in the village, such as blacksmith or pub owner, post your preference here or pm me.

If I don't get an occupation from you by Sunday I will assign you one.

If you have already stated your preference, then don't worry, I will put it next to your name later today.

EDIT: This fictional village is in Beleriand during the First Age. Keep that in mind when selecting your job.

EDIT: Wolves, Seer, Ranger, and Hunter- I want your nightly picks ONE HOUR BEFORE THE DEADLINE AT THE LATEST. That means I need them by 12:30 AM EST. If your pick is late, I will not count it.

[Formendacil]

I WANT TO SEE THEORIES AND ACCUSATIONS FLYING!!!

Ave, Phantom! We who are about to die salute you!

If I don't get an occupation from you by Sunday I will assign you one.

Well, this could be fun...

I think I shall be the village Gong Farmer.

(Look it up if you don't know what it is... I assure you it is not someone who grows bronze plates...)

A nice sized-game there, Milord Phantom, and a nice set of rules (excepting the double-lynching... Don't like that. But you ARE the boss...).

This will be fun! :D

[Anguirel]

Gong farmer...poor chap...

I will be a valiant and true knight-errant...in marked contrast to my previous role

[Firefoot]

This will certainly be an interesting game, looking at both the rules and the players' list! Nice to see some names on there of people whom I haven't played with before.

I shall be a naturalist/herbalist.

Boy, I'm going to have to remember what I'm doing here. I haven't played in a game since August.

[Boromir88]

Wow what a good game we got here Mr. phantom, I tip my hat to you. I look forward to playing for the first time with those like Fea, Mr. Underhill, Estelyn, tgwbs, and Lhuna.


I will be an insulting man from Dor-lomin.

[the guy who be short]

I shall, of course, be a Dwarf. For interest, I shall also be completely bald. And bespectacled. And I live under the village, as opposed to in it.

Profession? Bah! Dwarf.

[mormegil]

Also, during the course of this game, I would appreciate it if you would refer to me as Lord Phantom, Master Phantom, Sir Phantom, or King Phantom.

Phew I'm glad this isn't a requirement :p

I shall be a messanger. I can run messages for Elves, Dwarves, Valar, Men, Orcs, you name it I'll run it.

[the phantom]

I'd like everyone's opinion on which time would work the best.

I was just rethinking my schedule, and I've come up with these options...

I can make days and nights begin any time between 10 PM EST and 2 AM EST, or I suppose I could also do 8 AM EST if that is what most people prefer.

I imagine that no matter what time I choose there will be people who will only be able to be present early in the day or late in the day, so unless there is a large clamour for one particular time or another, I will probably pick 12 or 1 AM EST.

Please, voice your thoughts.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mister Underhill? You sneaky devil. I never even guessed.
I prefer midnight for starts and ends. Days and Nights are 24 hours each to accomodate time zone differences, I'm guessing?
I wish to assume the role of tavern wench. If you won't let me, I will be a basket weaver who enjoys serving food and drink to the villagers. From my baskets.
Wolves PMing both Day and Night? How fabulous. And lastly...
Lord Phantom? Psh. Be satisfied with Moddess Goddess like we all were. :p

[Firefoot]

11-12 a.m. EST give or take an hour or so would work well for me, since that's right about the time when I usually go to sleep. I'll be able to check in rather briefly in the mornings, then, though most of my participation will come in the afternoon/evening (depending on the day) to night, which would mean that most of my participation would be closer to the end of the Day/Night phases, similar to WWI so long ago... that worked out well with school.

[Formendacil]

As long as DAYs and NIGHTs are 24 hours in duration- each- then I really don't care too much.

But, if it matters, I prefer an evening, or even a nighttime start. As a North American, I suppose that means the between 10 and 2 option...

[mormegil]

I'm further west of you phantom some midnight is great for me but so is 8. 2AM gets a bit late but whatever works for all.

[Encaitare]

Sweet list of players -- can't wait for this game! I shall be a jewelsmith.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

If the deadline is late night U.S. time, I will end up having to cast my vote early, as it's not likely I'll be able to get online so early in the morning that I'll be able to catch up with reading previous posts and arguments and making my decision - at approximately 6 am! :eek: However, if others realize the time difference and take it into account when drawing their own conclusions, and if we have 24 hours each for day and night, I suppose it should work out. Perhaps we should do a time zone check - I'm in EDT, which is GMT + 2, until the end of this month.

My profession has already been logged. I look forward to the game with a bit of trepidation, as I'm a newbie to this. I hope to survive long enough to enjoy playing with all of you!

[Cailín]

Great game! I'm still wondering how my name ended up on that list. :D

Well, I'm on GMT+1, but I'm already used to being forced to cast an early vote. I suppose 2 AM would work best for me, but any time is fine. Though, like Estelyn, 12AM or 1AM would force me to vote extremely early, since I'm physically unable to get up before 7 in the morning.

As for professions, I will be a merchant selling love potions. Can't guarantee they'll work, though.

[the guy who be short]

8AM EDT would be best for me, but it doesn't matter hugely - I'll just post my vote early if I must.

[mormegil]

If we are doing a time zone check like Estelyn wanted I am in Mountain time which is 2 hours behind Eatern Time

[Boromir88]

I'm in EST with phantom, any time is good for me. I may have to vote earlier on Thursdays and Fridays, but any time is good.

[Anguirel]

Come to think of it, I've thought hard and dredged up my appalling Maths skills and 8:00 AM EST would be best, if poss...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm in EST with phantom, any time is good for me. I may have to vote earlier on Thursdays and Fridays, but any time is good.
Unless he's recently taken leave of Omaha, tp's not on EST. He's just using it. Not that it really matters... Can't wait to start!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Looking forward to the game; it should be a lot of fun.

I will be a Mercenary. I'm hiding out in [Insert name of Village] because I accepted gold from King Thingol to fight for him, and I never did. I'm wanted dead or alive.

I'll be safe here, right? ;)

[the guy who be short]

I'll be safe here, right?Dwarves and Thingolites don't get on very well, so of course.

Which brings me to another thing. This game should be set in Middle Earth. I'm not going to bother giving any reasoning, I know the awesomeness of the phantom will shine through on this. ;)

[Boromir88]

Which brings me to another thing. This game should be set in Middle Earth. I'm not going to bother giving any reasoning
I think those are Master phantom's intentions. My first "role" was an insulting frenchman, but phantom made me aware that there were no frenchmen in middle-earth so I changed it with one of his suggestions as "insulting man from Dor-lomin"

Unless he's recently taken leave of Omaha, tp's not on EST. He's just using it. Not that it really matters... Can't wait to start!
Oh, I see.

[Mister Underhill]

I should keep my eyes open -- just now stumbled on this thread in time to get my occupation in under the wire. It is: Itinerant Drúadan Watch-stone Maker.

As for the time-zone check, I'm in PDT.

Looking forward to the game.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hasn't every game been set in Middle-earth?

[the phantom]

Well, since we are in a variety of time zones, it looks like no matter what time I pick there are going to be people from certain areas that have to vote before the very end of the day. Make sure and factor that into your suspicions.

I think I'm going to go with 1:30 AM EST for the start/end time.

That way, those of you in Europe can get in on the very end of voting if you are up early (I think 6:30 AM in Brit and 8:30 AM if you're in Esty's zone).

For us in North America, we will have to stay up late to get in on the end of voting- 1:30 AM for Fea's zone, 12:30 AM for me, 11:30 PM for morm and the others in his zone, and 10:30 PM for Mister Underhill's zone.

I'm not sure exactly what time it will be for Lhuna, but I know it won't be night so Lhuna should be fine.

[the phantom]

I'm going to be sending out roles pretty soon.

Depending on where you live, NIGHT 1 will begin very late Sunday night or very early Monday morning.

DAY 1, when everyone can begin posting, will begin Tuesday at 1:30 AM EST.

Once you receive your role, you are not allowed to mention the game to another living member of the village until the game is over- except for the wolves, who can pm amongst themselves all the time.

You cannot give a rep to someone unless they are dead. Reps, depending on when they are given and what they say, will probably influence the opinions of the recipient, and I don't want that to happen.

So, NO PMING OR REPPING A LIVING PLAYER.

[mormegil]

Just a reminder to all players that we will want to be in invisible mode for the duration of the game or at least the part you are active in.

[littlemanpoet]

I'll be the lecherous innkeeper/bartender. :p Ay, Fea babe... ;)

[Lhunardawen]

Well, since we are in a variety of time zones, it looks like no matter what time I pick there are going to be people from certain areas that have to vote before the very end of the day. Make sure and factor that into your suspicions. That's right. I remember in Werewolf VII... :(


I think I'm going to go with 1:30 AM EST for the start/end time.

I'm not sure exactly what time it will be for Lhuna, but I know it won't be night so Lhuna should be fine. Thanks for the concern, milord phantom. The time is perfect for me. I am in GMT +8, so that will be 1:30 PM over here. I just looove sem breaks.

As for my role, I'll be the village healer (of hurts and hearts ;) ).

[Boromir88]

The only day there should be a problem are Thurdsays, where I have meetings until 11, and I'm not in the mood to stay up much later. So, if it's the day phase on Thursday, expect a very early vote from me (5-6ish EST)

[Shelob]

A role eh? Would you permit me to be a beggar? Since most of this game shall be played on borrowed time (if not time outright stolen from my homework) it seems almost fitting...and now I can put my begging bowl to good use.

Also, Phantom, thanks for moving the starting date back. Last I had known it was to have started today and I'd have come in late...

Many Thanks.

[Mithalwen]

Hasn't every game been set in Middle-earth?

Mine wasn't

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You rebel. :p

[Mithalwen]

I prefer to say individual.... Anyway it is good to see that the mantle of despotic moderation has been assumed.. :p

[the phantom]

it is good to see that the mantle of despotic moderation has been assumed
I try my best. ;)

Okay everyone- as morm said earlier, make sure you are all in INVISIBLE MODE.

Also, starting now, all questions should be posted on the original (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=11911) Werewolf thread, or pmed to me.

NIGHT 1 will begin shortly.

The only person I need to hear from on NIGHT 1 is the Seer.

DAY 1, when everyone can begin posting, will begin Tuesday at 1:30 AM EST- less than 25 hours from now.

Talk up a storm every day. Come up with all the theories you can. Analyze every vote and Werewolf kill and think of every possible implication, and then post it- no matter how unlikely it is.

Prove that you are worthy to be in the phantom's village!

And have fun, too. :)

[the phantom]

NIGHT 1

The region south of the River Teiglin was all but deserted.

One by one, each settlement in that land had been pulled down from within by Sauron's werewolves.

Even the villages that managed to slay his wolves lost so many of their people in the process that the village could not continue to exist, and so the survivors would move to another village, which would inevitably be invaded by werewolves.

Sauron smiled as he stood atop a hill, which was bareheaded except for one tree, two miles from the small village known as Erbar Telamarth. Sauron had been assigned to clear the region of all settlements, and this was the last one.

Erbar Telamarth was populated entirely with survivors of other villages. Sauron knew that the experience of the villagers would make them much harder to defeat, but he did not mind. If the next group of wolves he sent into the village failed, he would simply send another.

"But why use werewolves at all? Why not take an army of orcs and wipe them out?" Gothmog had asked Sauron during their last meeting in Angband.

If Gothmog weren't such a barbaric simpleton, he could've answered his own question thought Sauron. He just has no appreciation for the finer points of evil. Using werewolves is a perfect design. It causes every person in a village to distrust everyone else- even their own spouse and children. And during the day, in an attempt to find my wolves, the villagers cruelly kill their own fellow innocents. Sauron laughed quietly to himself as he fondly remembered all of the innocents who had been lynched at the hands of their friends and family.

The arrival of his orc captain, Mortakh, brought Sauron back to the present. "We have him, Lord Sauron!"

"Excellent. Bring him to me."

Mortakh turned and ran down the slope and soon vanished into the trees surrounding the hill, eager to carry out his master's order.

And so, the final chapter is ready to begin thought Sauron.

For the past eleven days, Sauron and his small company of orcs had been patrolling the area surrounding Erbar Telamarth, waiting for a chance to capture Phantom. Now, they had finally caught him.

Sauron had tried to slip wolves into the village twice during the previous month, but Phantom found the wolves both times and had them executed immediately. Sauron knew he had to get rid of Phantom or his wolves would never get the chance to destroy the village.

Three years before, Sauron had turned Phantom into a werewolf. Usually, Sauron would go to the outskirts of a village and draw the three villagers with the darkest hearts to him and put into them a foul werewolf spirit, but he had gone out of his way to make Phantom a wolf. Phantom did not come to him- he pursued and captured Phantom. Phantom was a young, intelligent, persuasive man, and Sauron knew he would make a perfect werewolf- and he did.

Phantom destroyed countless villages over the next two years, but, suddenly and unexpectedly, the man inside triumphed over the werewolf and Phantom cast the evil spirit from his own body- something no werewolf had ever done.

After that, Phantom journeyed to Erbar Telamarth and had been living there ever since. Because he had once been a wolf, Phantom could immediately sense a werewolf, and so he was able to protect the village from them. Every evening the villagers would line up outside Phantom's house and he would inspect all of them to make sure no one had been possessed.

Sauron discovered this after his second wolf attack failed, and realized that Phantom had to be dealt with before the village could be attacked.

"Here he is, Lord!" shouted Mortakh as he came trotting up out of the trees. Behind him were six orcs carrying a man, bound and gagged.

"Set him there."

The orcs leaned the man against the lone tree on the hill top and went back to stand beside Sauron with Mortakh.

The man turned his head to the left and looked towards the village, but night had come and he could not see it, though he could see the glow of fires through windows, which from so far away appeared to be orange stars.

"Don't worry Phantom- they will all be dead soon," said Sauron.

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

Sauron threw up his hands in disgust. For the third time that night, his attempt to turn Phantom back into a werewolf had failed.

Phantom was sitting propped up against the tree. He looked exhausted, and somewhat older, but his eyes were shining with defiance. "Looks like your plan to destroy Erbar Telamarth is going extremely well," he said mockingly.

"You are a fool!" returned Sauron. "If I cannot make you a wolf, I will just find other wolves, and kill you! Your village will be destroyed either way! Why not give in and become a wolf again? At least that way you will get to live. Also, I know you must have enjoyed being a werewolf on some level."

Phantom rolled his eyes and sighed. "I'm getting tired of your arguments, Sauron. I've heard them all at least ten times tonight. Go away." Sauron stared silently at Phantom for a moment until Mortakh broke the silence.

"Lord Sauron, it's getting late. If you're going to recruit some wolves you need to do it now, or we'll have to wait another night."

Sauron turned towards Mortakh. "Yes, it is getting late. Take the others back to the camp, get the wolves, and bring them back as quickly as possible. I will call some villagers to meet us."

"Yes, Lord Sauron!" answered Mortakh. "C'mon boys, we're going back to camp to get the wolves!"

The orcs immediately loped towards the trees on the Northern side of the hill, but before entering the forest Mortakh stopped and looked back up at Sauron.

Sauron's hands were stretched to the southeast, towards the village, and he was chanting quietly in some language unknown to Mortakh. Mortakh turned and followed his squad towards the camp. He knew that when he got back he would find three villagers on the hill with Sauron- three villagers whose dark hearts, though hidden from their fellow villagers, could not be hid from the powerful call of Sauron.

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

It was finished.

Sauron ordered Mortakh and his squad to carry the three lifeless wolves away and dispose of them. The wolves' spirits now dwelt within the three beasts sitting at Sauron's feet.

They were human in form, but larger and more muscular, and covered with hair from head to toe. Their heads looked exactly like the head of a very large wolf. They still had human hands, but the hands had sharp claws instead of nails.

Sauron turned to face Phantom. "I really wish you would have let yourself become a werewolf again. We had such merry times together. I loved watching you make your kills. But- since you have refused my offer, you will be the first to die at the hands of your replacements."

Phantom looked up and met Sauron's gaze and said, "At least when men speak of my death, they will say 'They had to tie him up and send three werewolves at him to kill him'. You on the other hand- I foresee that you will be killed by a lone, unarmed midget! Ha ha ha!"

"Kill him!" Sauron shouted to his werewolves.

As the three beasts closed in, Phantom looked towards his village.

"May the Valar protect them."

(to be continued)

[the phantom]

"Something bad happened to him- I just know it!" said littlemanpoet, the bartender, to Estelyn, who was seated at a table a short distance from the bar.

"Shush! Keep your voice down. You don't want to go and upset everyone," cautioned Esty.

"Why not?" asked Formendacil, who was seated at the bar. "They're going to be upset eventually."

"You're right, Formy," agreed Mister Underhill, as he sat down next to him. "You mark my words- the searchers aren't going to find him anything but dead. It's not like him to go missing without telling anyone. Even Fea doesn't know where he is. Phantom's been keeping the wolves from getting into this town, so you know that they're out for his blood- and I know I'm not the only one who heard all of that howling last night."

Even as he finished speaking, mormegil, the messenger, burst in the door. He delivered his message between gasps. "They... they found him... up on... Bald Hill!"

"Dead?" asked Cailin.

Mormegil nodded.

"Were there werewolf tracks, Mormegil?" asked Feanor.

Once again, Mormegil nodded.

IT IS NOW DAY ONE

[mormegil]

Alas, I have arrived too late for my message to do any good. I was sent by Lord Thingol to warn of Sauron's designs to overrun this region by the use of wolves. It seems that his goal is nearly accomplished and he has now set his eye upon us.

Since I am already here however, I will stay and risk my own life in helping to capture these foul lycans. Our objective can be accomplished by working in concert with each other and being open and examining everyone with precision and accuracy only then can we root these demons out from us.

Although I do have my preconceptions about the cur Eomer. I have lived in Doriath long enough to know his reputation there. I could turn him in for the bounty upon him, but for the sake of this village I will let him live and pray that he is at least innocent of being a werewolf.

[Cailín]

Phantom... dead...? I still refuse to believe it. I came here, hoping for safety, but it seems there is no escaping from Sauron and his horrible wolves. It is sad we did not get your message sooner, dear Morm, but as you say, we are here now and can only do our best and pray we will not face the same fate as so many villages before us.

We have one, clear advantage, though. We have all seen it happen before, and we know what it is like. We may not be as adept at picking out the wolves at a single glance, like Sir Phantom was, but we are no helpless newbies either. Therefore, let us do the obvious thing . Let’s all discuss this, question each other, debate, point out suspicious behavior and argue till the wolves are so weary they cannot even tell one loud villager from the next. They are bound to slip up in time. And if that doesn’t work, we can always force feed some suspicious folk one of my excellent love potions and see if they rush into a passionate confession.

[Anguirel]

Alas. Though I was once a famed pursuer and slayer of werewolves, I was sorely wounded in rescuing a village some time ago, and only narrowly saved from the werecurse by a passing healer; my sword will be of little use.

However, I shall put the benefit of twelve years in the saddle against Sauron's minions at your disposal.

Since there is no doubt that to dispatch this last village, Gorthaur will have sent the finest wolves in his arsenal, we are unlikely to catch one on this, the first day. The question is, should we give up hope and fall upon a volunteered innocent?

I think not-the problem being that such a lynching would leave no trail. Though we may in the rage of our loss, manipulated by wolves, rend apart one of our guardians, at least we will be able to cast cold, analytical eyes as to why we did so...who was directing us...

Wolves will rarely be bold enough to start bandwagons-though having said that, that statement may encourage them to. They will use subtle sophistry, malign influence, that appears to make the situation clearer but in fact obfuscates it. Beware of those who seem too confindent-"Well, if X is innocent, Y is certainly guilty."

We do have one Seer dream; but I would advise the Seer not to hint about it yet in any way, even if an innocent is about to be lynched. Worse things happen at sea, frankly; Seer, we need you to be undetected, to last, survive, and dream...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I don't know whether to envy those of you who have had experience fighting those horrible werewolves or to be glad that I was able to live here in peace for so long! I am sad and bewildered, but it will not help me or us all if I am overcome by emotions. I must try to collect my thoughts to be able to find a way for us to escape the worst, the complete obliteration of the village that is our home.

I have made garments for so many of you; they clothe you well, but now I cannot help but wonder what dark hearts are concealed by those warm, sturdy yet lovely materials. How am I to trust any of you? Words are like clothing - they often hide what is underneath them. I cannot judge by what anyone says, but must wait to see what your actions reveal.

Fortunately, I have time today. I finished the most necessary sewing and ironing tasks yesterday, so I have nothing pressing to do. Besides, I do not want to be alone in my home or shop after this foul deed, lest fear overcome me. For now, I take comfort in speech with you, my fellow villagers.

[Cailín]

It's a comfort to hear that so far, everyone is prepared to stand up and fight this new threat, instead of going straight into hiding and helplessly await our doom.

Anguirel has some valuable points and I think I should add we should be careful of wolves trying to steer the lynching into a singular direction early on. Better to first get a general impression and then spread the voting, so we may avoid the wolves planning anything in advance. Being able to do that is their advantage over us and as long as we can undermine any strategizing, we should be fine.

And Esty, whether it is an asset we have fought wolves before, remains still to be seen. Our wolves also likely have past experience and can consequently more or less anticipate the reactions of the village. Besides, we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern. ;)

Also, I’m sad to inform you all, later this day, a very important costumer from another village will be paying me a visit. Since this particular costumer is one of those skeptic people, I can predict without a doubt our wary attitude shall be undeservedly ridiculed, but I must admit I'm loath to lose such great patronage and will therefore be forced to keep my additions to our discussion brief today. I am sure, however, you will hardly miss my input and should the situation become extremely dire or confusing, I will naturally immediately rush to the cause, despite my customer's protests.

[Firefoot]

Sensible statements from all, sensible indeed. Yet fair words may hide a foul tongue, as it's said. Who can tell whether the words are heartfelt or utterly empty, masking the beast inside?

Now, a werewolf could be anybody, but there's some less than respectable characters lurking around this village. What have Fea and lmp been up to this past night? Or Shelob, finally looking to rise above your station by gaining that foul Sauron's favor? Or perhaps the opposite, Anguirel, trying to hide behind his noble facade?

These are dark days, dark days indeed - and as long as there are these wolves around, there will no doubt be suspicion and doubt. Yet we must work together. Our enemies delight in the division of their enemies.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hovering hippos! Hi-jinx have hindered my hopes, as it were.

Now hold on just a moment, my lovelies, don't stare at me like that! It's true that I'm a newcomer to this here village and so you'll all be wary of me; only natural, I suppose. But my designs included little more than laying low in this fine country and seeking peace. Angry Elves I may have expected, but Werewolves? That puts an apple in the mustard, if you take my meaning.

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

One other pressing matter: Is there a saloon in this town?

[Boromir88]

Pah, phantom missed? What's this? The guy was nothing but a cocky lil airhead. Always wanting to be called, lord, or master, like he was someone of importance.

As far as my predictions, I just kind of want to take some stabs and see how close I am...

Sauce is a wolf because you just have to suspect someone like Sauce in the beginning, always, it's just the way it is.

Lhuna's a wolf, because she's not much of a healer, and I don't know why she calls herself one. I had went to her one time to find a cure for this dreaded wart that I had, all she did was cause me to spring more of them. Then I had to get my big toe amputated.

And Estelyn's a wolf, because her sewing is horrendous, only a werewolf with giant claws could do that bad of a job.

Anyway, how's everyone this morning?

[mormegil]

Sauce is a wolf because you just have to suspect someone like Sauce in the beginning, always, it's just the way it is.


Boromir I believe that you are a bit touched in the head. There is nobody in this village named Sauce, unless you are using that as code for your friends. Somebody so cock-sure of his own ideas worries me especially when at least his first assumption is incorrect.

Now I have a method on the first day that could help us identify wolf behavior. If all innocents truly and surely pick a random person and go after them, then it will be just that random. It allows us a chance to get a wolf without influence but more than likely if one of there's is set to die they will be bailed out by a cohort, thus helping to reveal at least one or two. Mind you this is a best case scenario and more than likely we will just end up killing an innocent and get only minimal knowledge but it might be worth having a go.

[Anguirel]

I'm going to try and draw some conclusions from what I've heard so far. None of them, however, will be solid enough to vote on the strength of at this stage. I am not making any accusations and I do not aim to subliminally attach connotatations of guilt to anyone. I am just feeling for any possible source of information.

I shall approach this in terms of strategy. The other practical strategists have been Cailin, Firefoot, Eomer (sort of!), and, er, Boromir (which shows how little I have to go on...)

Cailin's first post is partly neutralised by her second (firstly asserting that our experience is a good thing, then reminding us of the experience the wolves also possess). She gives out useful general advice, which I would tend to agree with-discussion followed by a spread set of votes. Nothing suspect yet, or particularly helpful, admittedly.

Firefoot merely emphasises that we can't trust anybody. Her post is short on substance, and could possibly be interpreted as casting suspicion on a carefully selected bunch of innocents with a fellow-wolf thrown in; on the other hand it could be no more than it seems. For reference, she murmurs against Shelob, Fea, lmp, and me. Marginally more suspicious than Cailin. But probably I'm following a wrong scent and she's just stirring up a little discussion. Impetuosity isn't wolf-Firefoot's style.

Eomer...is playing an "irritate everyone in sight" game. More power to him!

Boromir is obviously just having a lark, but jocularity could hide a darker purpose. Besides, I demand that he retract his slur on the Lady Estelyn's sewing, or, injured though I am, I shall not shrink from challenging him to a duel a l'outrance...

EDIT: The messenger has entered the debate. I must say, I commend his plan. There seems to be no especial pit trap in following it-that I can see-though I doubt it will be dramatically successful either...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Slandering my sewing, Boromir?? What kind of foul strategy is that? Even were I truly a werewolf, during the day my hands would be as skilled and delicate as you see them now. Were I truly a werewolf, would I give myself away by crude craftsmanship? Nay, talk like that is foolish at best and suspicious at worst. That is not the way to pin down who is guilty.

I claim no knowledge of anyone's secret inner life. On this first day, we can only guess and choose at random. As yet, we have only words, no deeds by which to judge our fellow villagers. May the Valar guide our choice - and that hopefully without the delay with which they so often act! :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Irritating people, lord Anguirel? How say you! 'Tis only my nature to talk in such a way. Though granted I've made a few enemies along the road. I'll aim to make myself a fearsome enemy of them thar wolves, tho'.

The ol' peepers have been working and they do believe they've spotted something, even this early. Anyone else? I'm not sure I want to spell it out yet.

And hail my hobbits, I do think I'll ha' to find the saloon masel'! Good day!


PS. I never knew that ol' Sir Phantom an' all, but I hear he was a rousing good chap. The village'll miss 'im, I'm sure. Rich fellow, by any chance?

[littlemanpoet]

...we can always force feed some suspicious folk one of my excellent love potions and see if they rush into a passionate confession.

I'll take one now. As they say, 'eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow someone will have been found dead' at the claws of werewolves. Well, I know how to be merry, and I'd be quite willing, Cailín, to help you be merry too.

Don't doubt that I'll be quite serious in the discussion, but we can't have discussion all day and not relieve ourselves of the stress in one way or another.

I'll have to be away doing inventory of my casks, so I'll just trust to my handy Elven Loremaster Ears (ELE) to record the discussion while I'm gone.

[Anguirel]

Forsooth, I do hope that yonder man-at-arms Eomer be not a wolf, for it will be nigh on impossible to bring myself to vote for him...

My good esquire, supposing thou art innocent, thou hast left the villagers pondering on this...

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

while the wolves will be puzzling exactly how much they ought to fear your strong right arm...

Still, you seem a sturdy fellow, and I shall vouchsafe thy character against the denunciations brought by the Elvenking's messenger...for the present...

[littlemanpoet]

I am sad and bewildered, but it will not help me or us all if I am overcome by emotions. ... I finished the most necessary sewing and ironing tasks yesterday, so I have nothing pressing to do. Besides, I do not want to be alone in my home or shop after this foul deed, lest fear overcome me.

Then take comfort with me, fair clothier, and I can soothe your whelming feelings. My room is just upstairs and I've prepared it especially for your comfort and relief. And if you feel the need to discuss the horrors, I am quite willing to do that as well, just you and me.

[mormegil]

The ol' peepers have been working and they do believe they've spotted something, even this early. Anyone else? I'm not sure I want to spell it out yet.


I think I may see what you are speaking of and though I find you a miscreant rouge I may tend to agree with you and won't spell it out yet.

[littlemanpoet]

What have Fea and lmp been up to this past night?

What Fea and I have been up to in the privacy of my bedchamber is strictly between the two of us.

Oh. I see that my words seem to imply a quite specific activity. Ahem. Well. I can assure you that I was in my bedchamber last night, though of course I did go outside to the latrine once during the night, if you must know.

And what of you, Firefoot? What were you doing last night?

[Anguirel]

You varlets! Thy cryptic maunderings are most infuriating.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's ok, Ang. If you weren't going to vote for me anyway then it's useless trying to point you in that sweet and truthful direction.

Mormegil is a trusty servant and a far more worthy fellow than I (though I offer Thingol no regrets) and I think he is wise enough to see what has been laid out.

Look: we have a Seer in this village, or so I am told. It is imperative that he/she stays alive for as long as is necessary for our cause. It would be downright awful to lose him/her on the first day. Try not to make the lynchings too random, even here on this first Day.

A pity things are turning out as they are, what with the Wolves invading an' all. It appears that that outrageous character littlemanpoet would have batted my notoriety right into thae shadows! Ah, for peace and quiet! :D

[Anguirel]

The noble line of the Knights of Anguirelli number some Seers among their ancestors; and I can impart this much family lore. No post-mortem "trail" is worth a succession of dreams made safely. O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety...

Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy...

[Formendacil]

Alas! 'Tis bad enough to come in from a lonely night at work (and worse having to work at what I work), but coming in to find that the village is in a bigger pile of turds and stools than my job consists of is no fun...

I won't bother the village with my suspicions simply because I don't have any. As yet, we have no way of knowing who the vile Werewolves are, short of leaving the village and handing ourselves up to Sauron...

None of us is so foolish as to want to do that, methinks. Although Sauron would be rather pleased, I suppose...

But still, I am not certain that we shouldn't lynch somebody. True, it is an awfully hard fate for anyone here in the village, and I'm no more eager to volunteer myself than the next villager. But it isn't unheard of to catch a Werewolf on the first day, now is it?

That said, I'm not going to push for a lynching. I've got a bad track record of lynching all the wrong people- why do you think I shovel man-turds for a living? And I'll say this regarding my last village- I was lucky to get out in time- and according to some storytellers, I didn't. Werewolves are exceedingly cunning creatures, and are very good at sowing fear and dissention...

My question regarding Master Mormegil's strategy is this: If there are fifteen villagers, and fifteen votes cast for fifteen victims, then is the one who was voted for first just lynched off- on the strength of ONE vote, one-FIFTEENTH of the population?

It's not a likely scenario, I'll grant, but if you're counselling us to vote as randomly as possible, it is quite possible that we'll end up with someone being executed with hardly any suspicion, and most likely innocent. I agree that's a dangerous thing to all bandwaggon together against somebody, and that the chances of catching someone are no greater, but at least with a bandwaggoning you have the weight of a truer village majority behind you...

I don't suppose it's possible for ALL of the village to not vote. Would the phantom of our departed leader hound us to the grave for that? If EVERYONE in the village participated, would it perhaps be manageable...

[mormegil]

The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well.

[Anguirel]

The plan is original, but I don't think our wolves would be rash enough to fall into its trap. However, since it has not been essayed before, and seems at the least right unlikely to backfire, I am prepared to make a trial of it. I shall allow the Valar to assist and advise my vote, rather than mere reason, relatively soon.

[Formendacil]

The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well.

Probably, I suppose...

But let me ask another question:

Supposing all the villagers pick on the wrong people (not an impossibility, by any means), leaving the Wolves free to vote for each other and/or regular villagers, saving themselves and killing off others?

Your plan is a well-thought one, but I'm thinking that it cannot really succeed, without eventually disintegrating into a regular bandwaggoning. All it takes is two random-voters with the same suspicions voting the same way, and posting their thoughts, and you've got the makings of a bandwaggon.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile...

[Anguirel]

To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme.

Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do...

++BOROMIR88

Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf.

[the guy who be short]

Alas! Death is upon us!

Death! Death! *tugs furiously upon beard*

Now that the theatrics are comfortably over, I would like to assert that I am most definitely not a weredwarf. Whoever heard of such a ridiculous creature?

So who is a werewolf?

Well, it seems quite obvious to me... Yes, that's right. Sauron.

Other than him? Not quite sure yet.

[Anguirel]

Aye! I have our triumvirate! the guy who be short has shown the way...

Sauron, Draugluin and Carcharoth. There, I've saved the village. I must be the Seer!

I sense the presence of many other villagers...why then this silence? Am I to be left alone to test mormegil's plan? Let's get the debate continuing...

[Boromir88]

Boromir I believe that you are a bit touched in the head. There is nobody in this village named Sauce, unless you are using that as code for your friends.~mormegil
Ok, so I'm a little paranoid, but atleast I'm no fool.

You people think you're so high and mighty for defending (And perhaps saving) villages from the wolves destructive path. It's rather ridiculous if you ask me, and goes no way to clear your name at all. It may even look more suspicious, either you had a lucky escape, or you made a bargain with the wolves, and now you've come to kill us!
Sensible statements from all, sensible indeed. Yet fair words may hide a foul tongue, as it's said.~Firefoot
So, would you agree that foul words may hide a fair tongue?

As much as I would hate to admit it, despite Anguirel's vote for me, I doubt he's a wolf. Atleast, above anyone else here he's worthy of the title "sir" (ahem, unlike "Lord" phantom), however foolish and mislead of a knight he is.

I wouldn't doubt it if a wolf jumps onto Anguirel's foolish vote to watch me kick over today, but this village is more moronic than I thought and every last one of you deserve to be slaughtered and cut into tiny pieces by the wolves If I'm hanged.

Lhuna and Estelyn still remain as my suspects and since mormegil has corrected me, and he seems really to be the most brilliant one here so far, I don't really mind him. So, my last suspect is the guy who be short, who tried to be funny with the "weredwarf" comment, but it really wasn't.

[Boromir88]

On a note more specifically for Estelyn...
Slandering my sewing, Boromir?? What kind of foul strategy is that? Even were I truly a werewolf, during the day my hands would be as skilled and delicate as you see them now. Were I truly a werewolf, would I give myself away by crude craftsmanship?
The truth hurts.
On this first day, we can only guess and choose at random. As yet, we have only words, no deeds by which to judge our fellow villagers.
You say this, then thou attack me for doing that exact thing! Sounds a bit hypocritical, does it not?
Nay, talk like that is foolish at best and suspicious at worst. That is not the way to pin down who is guilty.
Though the clothes you sew are rags I never thought you as a hypocrit!

[mormegil]

To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme.

Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do...

++BOROMIR88

Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf.

I find this rather interesting that he says he will go along with the random plan and yet he seems to not be quite as random. I could be misreading this but it seems that I am correct.

It seems a bit odd and I wanted to point it out.

[Mister Underhill]

Once, Ghân-undé-Ghân was a great head man. Now I only make the stones, watch, and listen. I do not understand the ways of you Stonehouse folk, but I do not like to think of you all eaten by wolf-men. I will stay and help you seek these beasts. Ghân-undé-Ghân, called by you Stonehouse folk "Mr. Underhill", hopes you will remember next time you are thinking of spicing up your lawn or your front hall. Watch-stones also make good gifts and are both practical and affordable.

Twelve of us. Three wolves. Who will win? I do not understand the plan of mormegil. Perhaps you can explain it in such a way that a humble stone-carver can understand. You want us all to vote to lynch a different person, or only a "random" person and then see where the votes fall?

[Formendacil]

Twelve of us. Three wolves. Who will win? I do not understand the plan of mormegil. Perhaps you can explain it in such a way that a humble stone-carver can understand. You want us all to vote to lynch a different person, or only a "random" person and then see where the votes fall?


That seems to be his plan...

Personally, I'm not convinced it will work, but I notice that it is Anguirel who is first out of the gates to cast a vote.

There goes any plan of a mass abstaining...

Random votes, random votes...

'Tis a most difficult thing to do, to cast a vote on what is, for all the information I have, a statistic of 11/14ths innocent...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I have no inclination to talk in role-playing riddles. I've been out of town a few days as can be ascertained by a peek at our dearly departed Sir Lord Master King (jeesh, does he want God next?) Phantom's edit of the start date. T'was my frantic begging that delayed our preceedings. As I've only just finished reading the thread after getting back to campus, surely you'll understand the lateness of my response. Mind you, I'm hoping that coming clean about this won't glean spite votes against me just to get revenge for making you wait... :p

The ol' peepers have been working and they do believe they've spotted something, even this early. Anyone else? I'm not sure I want to spell it out yet.
I've glanced something, but as it's only the very first day, and I've made similar mistakes in the past, I'll see if I can learn from my rashly accusational nature. Perhaps not though... perhaps I should go with my perverse sense of humor (though less so, apparently, than LMP's ;)) and just accuse you here and now of wolvish undertakings.

Anyhow, here's what I've gleaned:

Everybody speaks sense. How clever of them. Here's a bit more:

We ought to assume that I'm innocent (a good assumption, based on fact) and circle-vote. Each person is assigned someone to kill (I'm not included on this list, obviously) and votes for them. That way, when the day is done, everyone but one person (moi) will be dead, and the villagers will be victorious. If you like, I can then take my happily living innocence and go avenge the phantom by challenging Sauron to single combat. After all, I'm somewhat short, and if I keep accidentally slamming my shoulder-blade in the car door, I'll be unarmed. :D

Or if you don't want to assume that I'm innocent, we can have the Seer step forward to proclaim his/her innocence, as well as whomever s/he dreamt about, and circular vote that way, based on them.

Or, even better, we can continue blindly. To be honest, that sounds like a load more fun.

My own opinion is that I've found either two known innocents, or two known wolves. Quite frankly, I think that we should kill one of them off just to see which idea is accurate. *grin*

Or on another note, let's off mormegil... at random, of course.

You see, I'm not crazy about his plan. If we all vote "at random" then yes, we might be able to see who doesn't vote randomly, but it will take longer to analyze than if we all go off on our own ridiculous tangents. At least then, we have something to do tomorrow, yeah?

PS: dear clothier, I've finally managed to photograph the sign that says "Esty Street."

[Encaitare]

Greetings, all. It is long since we have all assembled together... how are we all? Holding up well? It is indeed a tragedy; Lord Phantom was a good man.

I have been taking note of all your responses and ideas, and here is what I have to say thus far:

Anguirel! How very noble of you to offer your life to the village. Yet as selfless an act as it may be, it would be to little avail. We would, if we lynched you, have fourteen to choose from (and thirteen by the time the next DAY begins). Even though the odds of finding a wolf are then better, it is likely that an innocent will be lynched toDay anyway. That, unfortunately, is just how the odds run. If we vote, then we will at least have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a wolf.

With his offer in mind, I am inclined to believe that Anguirel is either an ordo with the best interests of the village in mind, or a bluffing wolf who assumed people would respond with the reasoning I gave above.

Mormegil's plan confuses me slightly. Randomly pick one of our fellows to lynch? It seems a little bit fishy, and probably would not be that effective for seeing who is a wolf and who is not. It is clear some of us have already formed opinions and theories about each other, no matter how full of holes they may appear. A truly random vote would be impossible, especially now that Anguirel has already voted.

I must away, but I shall return to this place later in the evening to read all else you have to say and to cast my vote.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mister Underhill, Formendacil, and Fea.

[mormegil]

I'm starting to think that I will not follow my own plan but the point is that while all votes from innocents are truly random those from wolves will most likely not be and therefore easier to track. But the likelihood of the plan succeeding isn't great but it's a plan nonetheless.

[littlemanpoet]

O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety...

Then let all innocents be as loudmouthy as can be so that the merest hintings by the farsighted one, should they occur sooner than later, go unnoticed by the evil spirited ones, so distracted they will be by the noise of the rest of us.

Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy...

Bad idea. If we have an innocent volunteer, assuming that you are, although it could be a brash werewolvish bluff, then there is no voting trail to follow to roust out the werewolves.

[littlemanpoet]

Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile...

Forsooth! What do you think I was getting at? I am not such a one as to take advantage of an innocent, if that is what you are. I take advantage of no-one, and my heartfelt sympathy is certainly for all and anyone, no strings attached (although I don't mind you patronising my tavern). Far be it from me to indiscrimately boondoggle women to my bed! I am most discriminating in that pursuit!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hoom, hroom, hrm. Hmm...

Hark! We villagers must be realistic and we must be brave; let us face Death head on! Some of us are going to die; we have to accept this. At least in a couple of Days time the village should be better off – if not in numbers then at least in ideas.

But I don't give too much thought to random voting. Rest assured, whomsoever gets my vote will have done something to irk me. Fair, treacherous wolves, eh? The scunners!

I will also have to vote very early. But first, I'm going to....fish? Is there a loch around here?

[littlemanpoet]

I didn't really like the plan anyway, morm, no offense. Like most of these Day One plans, they tend to distract attention from trying to rout out the werewolves, they don't get enough support, and therefore they fail. Let's wait a few days by which time plans can be more helpful.

Fea, bad girl. I may have to dock your wages for that. The nerve of trying to impersonate someone from the far distant future. How anachronistic! Forsooth! And your plan sucks too. I think I ought to take you into my bedchamber and give you a proper spanking. Now, wouldn't that be fun?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I must now make my decision, whether tis better to vote now before retiring, though I would then not be able to take the following discussions into consideration, or to attempt to rise so early that I can catch up then and make my choice. Would it be less random later? I do not know.

[littlemanpoet]

And just for the record (correct me if I've missed anything):

Firefoot:

Questions: LMP, Fea, Shelob, & Anguirel
Suspects: no-one
Accuses: no-one
Defends: no-one


Boromir:

Questions: no-one
Suspects: Lhuna, Esty, Guy
Accuses: No-one
Defends: Anguirel


Anguirel:

Questions: Cailin, Firefoot
Suspects: no-one
Accuses: no-one
Defends: Boromir
Votes for: Boromir!


Eomer:

Questions: no-one
Suspects: no-one
Accuses: no-one
Defends: Mormegil


LMP:

Questions: Firefoot
Suspects: no-one
Accuses: no-one
Defends: no-one


That's all I have so far. Nobody else, as far as I can tell, has mentioned any names in any way that suggests questioning, suspecting, accusing, defending, and voting.

I've designed this list to be usable by anyone who wishes to join me in tracking such behavior. Feel free to correct me and or update the information.

[the guy who be short]

It is necessary that I disappear underground for some sleep in the next hour or so. We dwarves tend to turn in early, you see.

If neither Shelob nor Cailin have said something by then, I will vote for one of them. I dislike the silent.

[littlemanpoet]

I must now make my decision, whether tis better to vote now before retiring, though I would then not be able to take the following discussions into consideration, or to attempt to rise so early that I can catch up then and make my choice. Would it be less random later? I do not know.It would certainly be less random later: you'd see who else voted how. But by doing so you run the risk of making yourself look more suspicous. .... and really wreak havoc on your sleeping schedule. But if you start to feel tired at any point, I've a bed just in the back room where you may take your rest in comfort and ease. I even have some wine and chocolate for your refreshment. And there are other things there that someone of the fairer sex would find quite pleasant. Feel free to take your leisure there.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And your plan sucks too. I think I ought to take you into my bedchamber and give you a proper spanking. Now, wouldn't that be fun?I should start a bandwagon for your lynching for that. I am a good and proper young lady and all should do well to remember it. Not to mention you're warping the poor young children of the village with your talk.

LMP, as I've little better to go on than minor annoyances, please defend yourself to me by providing an excellent strategy by which you think the village could win. So far, your talk has been based less on destruction of evil and more on what could quite easily be considered too much fun.

How anachronistic! But didn't you know? I'm rather fond of Anakronisms.

EDIT: cross-posted with the whole 3rd page

[the guy who be short]

Sorry, my mistake, Cailin has actually posted before. That makes Shelob my candidate for the day.

[mormegil]

I didn't really like the plan anyway, morm, no offense.

None taken my local debauchee, I don't think my plan is likely to work as I stated but it at least got some good discussion going. Also I myself only planned on implementing my plan only if I didn't have some decent suspicion, which I feel like I have now though I will reserve that for a little while and see where the day takes us.

[Firefoot]

I am against picking a random villager and lynching them - there'd be nothing left to analyze. Everyone should just pick who they think is a wolf. It's unlikely that we will actually catch a wolf, but we're not likely to do so anyway, and an individualized voting can leave a pattern for analysis, and the wolves won't be able to hide as well in one giant mob bandwagon.

Anguire's been very vocal; so far he seems to be acting in the best interest of the village. His vote of Boromir was a little random, but we don't really have that much to go off of anyway. Other than that he seems to be following a fairly logical train of thought. I've also been following lmp and Morm pretty well; they seem innocent at this point.

I think that Formendacil's theory of everyone abstaining from voting (if it were still viable, that is) would only hurt the villagers in the long run. Voting is probably the most concrete evidence we have - we can compare the order of voting, the consistency of what the person said vs. how they voted, and a fairly concrete statement - "I think this person is a wolf." Though it will probably take a couple days, voting does leave a pattern.

[littlemanpoet]

I should start a bandwagon for your lynching for that. I am a good and proper young lady and all should do well to remember it.

Ah, but I know better, my tavern wench.

LMP, as I've little better to go on than minor annoyances, please defend yourself to me by providing an excellent strategy by which you think the village could win.

I've beat you to it. My list may not be a plan, per se, but it certainly is a valid tool that can aid us in identifying suspicious behavior. So there. Go and wait some tables.
I'm rather fond of Anakronisms.

Now now now, "don't be trying to get maidens to bloom before they're ripe," as the saying goes. That is a saying, isn't it? Now 'git'! Eomer over there looks thirsty.

[Anguirel]

I think LMP's analysis should make it quite clear that my vote was utterly random-I merely invented some reasoning to make it seems somewhat less denuded.

Actually-as a knight should never vote to lynch a lady without good reason-I picked randomly from all the male villagers. Boromir received the short straw.

[Cailín]

Sorry, my mistake, Cailin has actually posted before. That makes Shelob my candidate for the day.

Good. I was already planning an indignant response to that. I'm very sorry for my silence but it could not be helped. I really promise better behavior in the future, should there prove to be one.

I have not had time to read everything thoroughly yet and am quite afraid I won't manage a close reading tonight. Though I normally hate random voting, tis what I'm probably going to do, hoping it will at least confuse the wolves and be unexpected.

I shall return later tonight. I think.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I've beat you to it. My list may not be a plan, per se, but it certainly is a valid tool that can aid us in identifying suspicious behavior.
Not good enough. Heck, I've got a list, and mine's more detailed than that which you posted. I want a strategy, not an observation.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I wish I knew on what those who have mentioned suspicions base them! I have no idea how to vote seriously on this first day. Mine will have to be completely random - perhaps using the time-honoured tactic of "eeny, meeny, miney, mo"?

[the guy who be short]

Esty - I base my "suspicion" of Shelob on the fact that she has not yet appeared. Voting her off, even if she is an innocent, will help in that it will remove a mysterious silent factor from the village.
Of course, if you're completely at a loss, it's always helpful getting an abacus to randomly choose somebody to kill for you. :)

Cailin - Sorry again.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I wish I knew on what those who have mentioned suspicions base them!
But if I explain my suspicions, I run the risk of getting some people I'd like to keep alive killed off. That's why vagueness makes me happy.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

If we go by that 'evidence', tgwbs, then Lhuna is one to keep an eye on as well - she hasn't posted since the game started...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Tantalizing as LMP's offer of a resting place with wine, chocolate and "other things" is, I prefer my own. And as I cannot guarantee a reappearance by the appointed time, I shall have to cast my vote now. Using the "eeeny, meeny..." 'strategy' I mentioned above, I have chosen:

++Shelob

I can only hope that my random choice was guided, for I have not the wisdom to make a decision with the necessary foresight. Good night!

[the guy who be short]

Hmm, I didn't notice Lhuna's absence. However I'm willing to put that down to time difference - seriously, that girl sleeps so late, it's like she's in another time zone. ;)

[the guy who be short]

Sigh. This will look like bandwaggoning, but hopefully it's for our own good:

++Shelob

[mormegil]

I think it a bit reproachful of out village to want to lynch somebody who hasn't spoken, yet! She still may speak and to lynch somebody based on that piece of "evidence" at this phase is rather spurious. I hope that we are able to at least hear from Shelob before more votes are cast her way.

[Firefoot]

While I completely understand the logic behind it, I'm not sure that voting for Shelob just because she hasn't posted is the best way to go. Granted, she's about as likely as anyone else to be a wolf, but I'd rather vote for someone whom I actually have something to go off of, insubstantial as it may be since it's Day 1. Not that I'm condemning you for it; I just wonder if that's really the best way to go.

Edit: cross-posting with Morm...

[Cailín]

Well, I've finally had the chance to read through all your eloquent discussions and unfortunately had to conclude everyone is being extremely careful or, in Boromir's case, very insulting. No one has confessed yet, though I admit I was only hoping that would happen.

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

As for the others, I don't know. I shall vote

++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

Reasons? None, really. Habit, perhaps, and he is after all at least slightly evil.

Edit: cross posting with Firefoot and Morm here...

[Formendacil]

And so the whole village is a mass of confusion...

I may have experience sorting out plugged outhouses, but this is beyond any mess-sorting ability that may have given me.

As far as suspicion goes, the closest thing I have to that is Anguirel for opening the voting, and Mormegil for suggesting random voting. Both sound vaguely like Werewolfish ploys to distract people.

Or not. Really, this is an awful mess.

And as far as voting people off randomly goes, I'm all for the anti-LMP bandwaggon. Not because I think him dangerous, or a Werewolf (although there IS a 3/14 chance...), but because his personal life is as foul as my job.

[mormegil]

and Mormegil for suggesting random voting.

I always thought of it a discussion started and it seemed to work.

Now for my suspicions that I spoke of earlier they are of and Cailin and somebody that I still will leave nameless because I want more evidence before I go spouting off. However, with Cailin her post haven't sat right with me. It's a bit unsettling if you take my meaning and her vote for Eomer seems strange because I find him more innocent than most. Though that being said I also find Esty and TGWBS suspicious based on their vote of Shelob. I still have sufficient time to wait but I wanted to get my suspects down on the table now.

[Boromir88]

I'm not one to advocate lynching a "quiet" one, they would be really stupid wolves, to not be out here molding thoughts and manipulating. And even more stupid would be not to say anything when you're being accused.

I actually think lmp, Fea, and Formendacil are wolves. LMP and Fea because of the endless folderol exchanged between eachother. And Formendacil, because he wants to lynch somebody who's had a less than "moral" way of living. We all have our secrets, mind you that, and three people have the secret of being wolves.

It doesn't matter who's "noble" or who's sick and morally wrong. We aren't here to lynch people who have led an immoral way of living, but to lynch wolves. All the nobility does is trample on the rights of the hoi polloi, there's no use in them if you ask me.

So, lmp, fea, and Formendacil are wolves. Though anyone of you baffoons can be a wolf.

Yes, I take back my accusations on Estelyn. I can't help it her sewing looks so bad a werewolf dun it.

[littlemanpoet]

Not good enough. Heck, I've got a list, and mine's more detailed than that which you posted. I want a strategy, not an observation.

You can want it from me all you like but I'm not taking orders from you. I have my own strategy, and you can just go back to waiting tables.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My dear Cailín, your busy schedule does not excuse you from reading carefully. Hsssss, I hiv'nae heard o' sic a heart. By the way, I'm loving this new country. Caught some fine fish this evening in that bonnie loch over yonder. Hmm...

I'll vote for:

++BOROMIR88

He sees that the village is in a mess, and tries to shift blame onto Fea and lmp for their 'back-and-forth' exchange. The posturing of someone who wants to draw wolvish parallels between two villagers whose very roles tie the twain together? Mayhaps.

What? It's the first day! I'm scraping for reasons; we all are.

And help ma hawks but ma heid is hammered. Good night, my loves!

[littlemanpoet]

And as far as voting people off randomly goes, I'm all for the anti-LMP bandwaggon. Not because I think him dangerous, or a Werewolf (although there IS a 3/14 chance...), but because his personal life is as foul as my job.

Well, Formendacil, if you don't think I'm dangerous or a werewolf, then your vote for me is/was (still catching up) no better than Esty's newbie vote for a so far silent one. My personal life is not nearly the threat to the village that three werewolves pose. For shame!

Okay, now for my official Day One suspect list:

Boromir
Mister Underhill
Feanor

Boromir is sounding like a werewolf who, knowing I'm not one, is trying to set me up with a couple other dupes that he and his evil croneys are getting ready to "off".

Mister Underhill is playing way too coy for my liking.

Feanor has been a bit wild after hours, if you take my meaning. Also, the fact that she's picked me to start heaping abuse upon, is not to my liking. If ever someone were to play the werewolf boldly, it would be this Feanor, quite capable of the bluff, double bluff, and bait-and-switch bluff (which I can't even possibly explain but you can bet Feanor would do it).

[Firefoot]

Hm, maybe I am being general, aren't I? Probably because I was trying to respond to seven hours' posting in one post. So here's something hopefully a little more comprehensive:

Anguirel - Starts out with some generalities about the wolves and their probable behaviors. He warns about making generalizations and leaves instructions for the Seer not to reveal his/herself. He wants us to work together. (43) He does some commenting on other people's posting so far, though he doesn't really draw many conclusions as he sets out to do, instead just stating the facts. (50) He defends himself a bit, then issues another warning to the Seer. He also volunteers himself for the noose. (54, 58, 60) He votes Boromir as a random pick from the men. (66, 90) Also, a couple of insubstantial posts not worth commenting on. Anguirel does a lot of commenting on the action, (and what he says tends to make sense, though that isn't necessarily an indicator of innocence) though he seems to have very few personal comments on the people. This is mildly suspicious to me.

Boromir - Points out some people for suspicion, including a mystical person not known in this village - this is interesting, I'm not sure if it might mean anything; a wolf might have already looked closer at the list of villagers than that - likely to generate discussion. (48) He makes some good comments; he expresses his doubt that Ang is guilty despite his vote of him - he's pretty firm on the topic of Esty's guilt - jokingly, I'd think. (69, 70) Recants doubts of Esty, states that he thinks wolvish triumvirite is Fea, lmp, and Formen. (105) He seems to be innocent to me, blundering around in the dark.

Cailin - Generalities. (42) Expresses support of Ang's statements. (45) Expresses desire not to vote for Lhuna or Shelob, also feels doubtful of myself and Esty. (102) There's not much to go on for her. She's not said a whole lot; I'm feeling neutral.

Encai - talks about voting system strategies; doesn't want one volunteer to be lynched. Thinks Ang is either innocent or bluffing wolf. (75) I agree with what she said, but there's not enough to go on to make any judgments. I'd like to hear more.

Eomer - Standard opening comments. (47) Thinks he's spotted something of importance, is unspecific. (52) Agrees that seer should stay hidden. (59) Says that whomever he votes for will have irritated him. (79) I'd like to know what he was talking about in 52, but that's his judgment. He's not posted anything really substantial yet, but what he has said is making sense. I'm leaning toward his innocence. After writing this: Votes Boromir, comments that he's scrambling for reasons (107).

Esty - Opening comments. (44) Defends herself against Boromir's accusations. (51) Expresses doubt on who to vote for (81, 93, 96) Votes Shelob based on lack of posting. (97) Obviously she has some doubts not having been in an infected village, and that could be all it is, which is how I am inclined to think. I'd like to hear some more, though obviously that won't happen until tomorrow. I'm not overly suspicious of her.

Fea - She gives some tongue-in-cheek strategy. (74) Comments vaguely, explains vagueness briefly. (92, 95) This could either be Fea being herself or Fea making us think she's being too absurd to be a wolf. I'm equally willing to believe either at this point. She's certainly on my watchlist, but then... she's Fea.

Formendacil - Disagrees with a wholly random lynching, suggests an everyone-abstain system. (61) Disputes Morm's plan. (64) More of the same. (73) Is suspicious of Morm and Ang; says lmp would be a good candidate for random vote. (103) Somehow seems much more vocal than he is, so I'd say that means he's been contributing well. I'm not sure about him; he seems innocent but I'm uncomfortable with some of the things he says. He's definitely on my watchlist.

Lhuna - Unknown.

Lmp - In-character (as bartender) comments, not much pertinence on discussion. (53, 55, 78) Defends himself briefly to me. (57) Discourages Ang from volunteering to vote, advises loudmouthiness to disguise Seer. (77) Expresses disagreement with Morm's plan. (80) Record of support, accusations, etc., unaccompanied by comments. (82) He's somewhat suspicious; he could be a wolf hiding behind his frequent posts and bartenderness. I'm not sure about him. After: official suspect list of Boromir, Fea, and Mr. Underhill. (108)

Mr. Underhill - Doesn't quite understand Morm's plan, asks for clarification. (72) I really can't tell much about him, he's just about as unknown as Lhuna and Shelob. I would like to hear more from him.

Mormegil - Opening comments, doubt on Eomer - to produce discussion, likely. (41) Suggests everyone vote for a random person off the list (49). Thinks he understands Eomer's cryptic post. (56) Supports his plan. (62) Finds Ang's vote odd in that it's not as random as Ang seems to be proposing. (71) Realizes his plan may not be the best, but is glad it generated discussion. (76, 87) Doesn't want to vote off a quiet one. (100) Is suspicious of Cailin, Esty, and TGWBS. (104) Overall he seems innocent to me. He seems to be following his regular plan of generate discussion and evaluate it. His random plan isn't one I'd agree with, but that's the only thing.

Shelob - Unknown

TGWBS - Declares he's not a weredwarf. (67) Dislikes how some haven't spoken, votes for Shelob for that reason (various posts between 80 and 100).

That took long enough! And yes, I did start getting lazy towards the end (i.e., TGWBS, Morm, and LMP, I didn't spend as much time on yours...) But I guess my current list of suspicions is: Fea, Formendacil, and LMP, though I'm entirely open for persuasion.

[Boromir88]

Boromir is sounding like a werewolf who, knowing I'm not one, is trying to set me up with a couple other dupes that he and his evil croneys are getting ready to "off".
Funny barkeep, I can say the same for you right now.

He sees that the village is in a mess, and tries to shift blame onto Fea and lmp for their 'back-and-forth' exchange.
Actually, I think my accusations are a benefit to the village. Or atleast they have been to me, gets me to see how people respond and what not. So, whilst my accusations be totally random, and unlogical, there's a purpose to them, or atleast they serve me a purpose. I hope I don't need to say this in more layman terms.

Again, despite Eomer's vote for me, as of right now he seems fairly innocent. Again foolish for following a foolish person. What is it that's always said, who's more foolish, the fool or the one who follows him? So I guess this makes Eomer more foolish but not a wolf.

Cailin, vote for Eomer just seems totally out of the blue, I guess she did Anguirel's strategy of the straw trick. Which is the dumbest way to vote, but not a wolf.

Anguirel, I've explained, foolish, and a bloody noble, but not a wolf.

Lhuna and Shelob, want to hear from these two. But, right now willing to let them slide, I'm sure there's an explanation for there absense. And think of it this way, if they don't talk tomorrow they're dead anyway.

Estelyn just seems totally lost at this point. This isn't wolfishness, just one getting a grasp of how these wolves roll.

Firefoot and Mr. Underhill I need to hear more from and I would like to before we send them to the gallows.

tgwbs' early vote clears him from a wolf atleast for this day, despite how flawed his strategy is.

lmp, realizing that votes are tied now between myself and Shelob suddenly suspects me, and could probably easily get me hanged since I'm not very well liked here.

Feanor, as I said the gibberish and voluptuous connotation between lmp and herself looks like a ploy designed by the wolves. For if I'm not mistaken the wolves can now PM during the day to discuss strategy?

Formendacil, because of him wanting to hang someone who is "immoral."

With all this being said, I think those who have voted already...
Anguirel
Cailin
Eomer
Estelyn
tgwbs

Are not wolves. With wolves being able to now discuss day and night, I think we can expect them to hange around later and let voting unfold to devise their strategies.

So, I'll probably be on again, but there's a possibility I won't and I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

[Boromir88]

I realize I cross-posted with Firefoot, and I find the post atleast was written with good intentions.

Also I realized I forgot to mention Encaitare, so insert her name in place of Firefoot's in my previous post. She's another quiet one.

[mormegil]

With all this being said, I think those who have voted already...
Anguirel
Cailin
Eomer
Estelyn
tgwbs

Are not wolves. With wolves being able to now discuss day and night, I think we can expect them to hange around later and let voting unfold to devise their strategies.

I think that one could well be a wolf. It would make sense for the wolves to get one vote early and see how it takes so they don't all have to wait till the end. I find you blanket statement far to encompassing to be true. I don't find you overly suspicious based on this but I simply don't agree with you.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

LMP and Fea because of the endless folderol exchanged between eachother. You call my demand of a decent strategy to make up for implying that my honor is somewhat less than, endless? I fear that I must disagree. Though I clouded my request with role-playing teasing, it was given because I've noted that LMP posts frequently, but with little substance, choosing rather to take full advantage of his lecherous role, as opposed to trying to kill wolves. His posts take the attention away from our job... trying to survive. Though he provided us with an organizational tool, that is not any new information to several of us. My own notes chart who mentions whom, and in what light, who is accused, who is defended, who is voted for, what strategy came from whom, and random notes that I find interesting and worth rememberance for each player. All of your accusations, defenses, and random interesting comments have their own special places in my notes. Just because I'm a mere pretty tavern wench doesn't mean that I can't take some pretty darned deep notes.

My two suspects, for little reason besides tweaking my nerves, are B88 and LMP. LMP because of what I've said already, B88 for jumping to conclusions that don't match up.

Feanor has been a bit wild after hours, if you take my meaning. Also, the fact that she's picked me to start heaping abuse upon, is not to my liking. If ever someone were to play the werewolf boldly, it would be this Feanor, quite capable of the bluff, double bluff, and bait-and-switch bluff (which I can't even possibly explain but you can bet Feanor would do it). I'm honored by your opinion of my capabilities, but you're wrong on me. Just because I'm fully capable of pulling off any depth bluff I feel like (most of which include no true work, simply alluding to one and letting your imagination do the work for me) doesn't mean I am. Although at this point, I'm curious about bait-and-switch bluffing, for future use, should the innocents survive (that'a'way we can go help out other plagued villages with our knowledge, you know).

In ANY case... the caps accentuating my sigh... I rather think that the Seer should ought to take a peek at LMP in his/her dreams tonight. Or me. Since my reputation (no, not that sort...) has preceded me, I foresee that I'll never quite be trusted without a Seer saying straight up and honestly to you:

"Fea is pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow, you should stop dropping her name as though it was a rabid ferret, and you should take into account everything she says because she is smarter than you."

I mean... the last part is elaboration, but if you're so confident in my wolvery, you can give me the benefit of the doubt (after all, logic favors me in that I've got a higher likelihood of being innocent than guilty) and have confidence in my skills as an innocent.

Also, Boromir, I'd like to see a potential strategy from you. Though you commented that the village would be severely stupid and deserve a very concisely chopped death should we kill you, you didn't bother saying what we should do instead. At this point, my vote is leaning toward you, Boromir, but I've got a bit of a tug toward LMP as well. You'll note that I don't presume to group pairings of wolves together nearly as often as you do. What are you on now? Three? First you accused Saucie, Lhuna, and Esty. Saucie?! Way to go. Talk about grasping to kill off a complete innocent. And then Lhuna, Esty, and TGWBS. You then immediately drop your suspicion of all three, with no explanation, for another pairing: LMP, Formen, and myself.

I think that the best thing to do is track 'em one wolf at a time. After all, if you try to follow too many roads at once, you'll miss an exit and get lost a half hour from your destination. Haven't y'all ever been on a road trip to know that? Once we pin one wolf, we can track the rest based on that. But throwing out pairings?

Boro, either you've adopted my well-known philosophy, or you're just trying too hard.

EDIT: cross posted with Firefoot, Boro (twice) and morm.

[Formendacil]

So, I'll probably be on again, but there's a possibility I won't and I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil


I find this deeply insulting...

Mainly because I don't think that there's any reason to pick on me rather than anybody else. As for picking on LMP, I wasn't saying I was GOING to vote for him, but merely that, with a lack of any sort of evidence, I may as well pick on him for his offensive lifestyle...

However, what's done is done, and I am still no closer to finding a victim.

[Boromir88]

I think that one could well be a wolf. It would make sense for the wolves to get one vote early and see how it takes so they don't all have to wait till the end. I find you blanket statement far to encompassing to be true. I don't find you overly suspicious based on this but I simply don't agree with you.~mormegil
I accept this, I'm not stubborn. I can say with confidence though, that I'm not overly suspicious of any of them. But, I agree that there's a possibility, but as of right now I will say none of them are wolves.

Also, Boromir, I'd like to see a potential strategy from you. Though you commented that the village would be severely stupid and deserve a very concisely chopped death should we kill you, you didn't bother saying what we should do instead. At this point, my vote is leaning toward you, Boromir, but I've got a bit of a tug toward LMP as well. You'll note that I don't presume to group pairings of wolves together nearly as often as you do. What are you on now? Three? First you accused Saucie, Lhuna, and Esty. Saucie?! Way to go. Talk about grasping to kill off a complete innocent. And then Lhuna, Esty, and TGWBS. You then immediately drop your suspicion of all three, with no explanation, for another pairing: LMP, Formen, and myself.~Feanor
Probably because you were cross-posting but I explained my strategy...
Actually, I think my accusations are a benefit to the village. Or atleast they have been to me, gets me to see how people respond and what not. So, whilst my accusations be totally random, and unlogical, there's a purpose to them, or atleast they serve me a purpose. I hope I don't need to say this in more layman terms.
What are our two main ways in finding a wolf?

First, the voting, with no voting off the bat this is no help to us. Though it becomes the biggest and best way to find a wolf.

So, what's the other way...talk, and that's what my accusations get do, get people to talk. All the more possibility of them slipping up, and it gets me to see their reaction to my accusations.

Then you accuse lmp of complete hoopla that's done nothing to help us find a wolf, you do the same thing?

And finally...
Boro, either you've adopted my well-known philosophy, or you're just trying too hard.
As much as this may hurt, it's got nothing to do with you. :p

[Firefoot]

The other thing about not being suspicious of those who have voted early is that wolves can't help the timezone they live in. I can't say I'm very suspicious of any of those people either, but it isn't because they've voted early.

[Formendacil]

Well, I'm not exactly living in another timezone, but this is the last opportunity I have to vote today, due to the constraints of a social life (yes, you heard right, even a Gong Farmer has a social life).

I'm going to go with someone who is known to be quite smart, who is currently playing it dumb, and who has been keeping a relatively low profile. I'm not saying that he's a Werewolf, but he COULD be, and I have no better evidence to go by. And since this is only one vote, I shouldn't be doing any real damage...

++Mister Underhill

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

As much as this may hurt, it's got nothing to do with you.
What? Me, not the center of the universe? I don't believe it. :p

However... I still want to see you killed. :D I know... once I pick up a prejudice, it doesn't go away very easily. Which is probably why I plan to (currently) vote for LMP tonight.

The beauty of EST though, is that I can see any last minute shenanigans and vote accordingly. However, I don't suspect I'll see any.... but one can always hope, yeah?

It's not like our wolves (coughLMPcough) will just come out and say "I'm a wolf. You should lynch me before it's too late." After all, that's only happened once in history. Not many could pull it off. The one that did it... I forget who it was... must have been incredible. Keen, clever... audacious as all get out. Certainly not somebody to be taken lightly, or accused of tom-foolery without good reason.

You know... I think I'd like to see Encaitare get lynched. It would just make my day. And it's been a long day. Hours of travel, and they were re-dirting one of the roads, so the workers held up all of the horse-traffic on my way back to Erbar Telamarth... and I've still got a load of work to finish up, no thanks to my bosses... they just love for me to examine language, intelligence, and thinking/communication styles and be able to discuss my findings accordingly with my peers... No, m'loves, I'm not talking Tol-in-Gaurhoth... I've got psych homework. I'll check in in a couple hours when I finish up. If I don't see some significant changes, I'm eeny-meenying it up between B88 and LMP.

[littlemanpoet]

Feanor remains on my list for the same reason the Phantom would were he still alive: formidable, and absolutely nothing she says can necessarily be taken at face value.

I now go to try and figure out what Eomer and Mormegil were talking about in 52 & 56, even looking in my posts in case they're barking up the wrong tree.

[Shelob]

::a quick out of game note--There is a reason for my absense, three actually 1. school, 2. chauffeur duty was thrust upon me 3. I started feeling really sick. For such reaons expect little more from me toDAY (unless, as stated later, I see myself accruing most the votes). Unless I'm really sick expect more on following days though...we now return you to your game::

1. Firefoot, I understand you accusing me... I am somewhat low on the social order of things, but I get by. I have neither need nor desire to rise above myself, esp. now I know that there are some few lower than I.

2. Estelyn Telcontar and TGWBS, voting for the silent one eh? A thousand sarcastic thanks...I should be wary of you though, voting for those who have not spoken is safe; you don't need a reason beyond their silence, they don't have a chance to defend themselves until it's too late, the vote is overlooked on later days as it gained nothing. But then again, nothing gambled nothing lost, eh? It seems to me that vote in such a way is to hide in brightest day...though, if it is then only one of you is likely guilty, for two of three wolves to vote so would all but be insanity.

3. Mormegil, wolves will likely try to save themselves whenever possible. However, should doing so risk another of their kin it is the good of the pack they'll look out for. We should remember that when we've voting records to consider. A wolf who refuses to save themself is likely saving their fellows, and through the lack of trail we may be led to the remaining beasts.

4. Current suspicions based on a somewhat rushed reading:
>Anguirel: Seems to say much without actually saying much. Post tone has something in it to suggest wolf-ish-ness. He seems (pst. 68) to be making light of the situation. HOWEVER, given that a wolf would either have to be dumb as a post or brilliant beyond all belief to pull off acting this way from the first day I'm inclined to trust that Anguirel is innocent...for now.
>TGWBS: His vote for me asside, his post (67) in which he speaks almost lightly of our situation (overdramatic "Alas, Death!", and his "weredwarf" comment) seem too, well, unconcerned for an innocent. (cf. Anguirel, though should one proove lycanthopic it would be my bet the other wasn't)

4a. That's not all, but as mentioned before I'm feeling sick...I can't actually remember who else I suspected...

5. A quick comment on likely werewolf strategies:

>Werewolves will vote so as to achieve one of four things: (A) to save themselves (B) to save another of their pack (C) to doom an innocent (D) to begin an innocents descent to doom. Because of such smart wolves can all but avoid detection, double bluff you see. An early enough vote can achieve D without actually seeming to have had a reason beyond innocent naivity. Votes to serve A and C are always looked on as suspicious, so most wolves will try to avoid voting that way unless there are others more likely to draw attention than themselves. as for B votes, their hard to spot until we've got at least one wolf down, with knowledge of who was trying to save them or of whom they tried to save it's easier to find and track votes of this sort

>Werewolves will likely kill people who aren't really gathering a lot of suspicion. Any innocent (and remember, the wolves know who are innocent) drawing enough attention away from the real wolves is worth keeping around, all the moreso if said innocent is also hitting close to home. Wolves will keep such a person around because the death of that innocent (whether by noose or by fang) will only take out a shield between the wolves and the gallows.

>Werewolves will kill so as to direct the voting away from their "class". By "class" I mean volume group, for example I would be in the "quiet" class whereas Anguirel would likely fit the "loud" class. To me there are three general classes, the Quiet, the Loud, and the Middle. Quiet wolves will try to kill in loud so as to rile up the other Loud villagers, Loud villagers will tend to accuse other Louds or those talking but not talking enough (Middle) thus drawing attention (and votes) away from the Quiet group. There comes a point for Quiet wolves though when killing Loud people becomes too dangerous, it moves the wolves up through the ranks of the Middle putting them more in the Loud's spotlights. Middle wolves will likely take out other Middles, this leaves Louds to accuse each other and Quiets for the wolves to shift blame to. Loud wolves, can likely kill whomever they please, since Louds get (or take) the most air time they are in the best positions to manipulate during the day as well as with their kills, thus Loud kills will likely be well thought out so as to appear like Middle or Quiet kills. If their pack is mixed wolves have to give it far more thought...to hide one of their member will require putting forward another

>During the day wolves will have to try and remain within their class, sudden changes (as with sudden movements) draw unwanted eyes. This means that if a non-Loud wolf is under pressure they can't do much to defend themselves. Rants are nice and even innocents may feel the need to vent their anger, but they look wolfish. If we all do our best to keep sudden long rants out of our discussions and try to defend ourselves with evidence presented from the game it makes it that much harder for wolves to hide their guilt. One can only gilt over guilt for so long.

>Since their main goal is to remain undetected wolves need to consider double, tripple and even riskier bluffs...The easiest time to do this would be this NIGHT. The right kill now and everyone will have their minds set in the wrong tracks. If their kill is a bluff and we go for it we've handed them a kill and gained all but nothing. If their kill is a bluff and we don't go for it those the bluff cast suspicion on will survive and we'll be left with unknown, untrustable elements gumming up the works. If it's not a bluff we'll certainly take it as one and either of the before described situations shall apply.

6. Having said all that, I fully expect to be alive tomorrow. Right now I'm likely gathering enough suspicion to detract from the wolves, so they won't kill me. This would tend to suggest that I'll draw even more suspicion tomorrow and be stand a good chance of being lynched then. However, there's enough of a chance that I could also be a thorn in the wolves side, this being the case they'd want me killed...Since killing me in the night would detract from their list of shields tomorrow it's more than likely that one wolf (at least) would support my lynching upon the morrow. That way they get two kills for the price of one, a NIGHT kill where they can send suspicion where they please and my DAY death where they'd thin our innocent ranks. Furthermore, should this be the case, it's likely that one wolf (at least) shall defend me...not enough to really be connected to me, but enough to keep me around another DAY, the longer I remain an unknown, untrustable element the better off for them.

7. With 6 in mind I suggest you lynch me now, you'll do no worse than you likely could on the first day anyway, you'll remove a potentially dangerous element from tomorrow's proceedings and (in my death) you'll see my words clearly for what they are, an attempt to help. Should I see myself getting a good majority of votes I'll wrack my mind for any further help and post it.

With that I think I'll vote

++Anguirel

mostly because of my assorted and disconnected suspcicions he stands out the most.

Until Then.

[Mister Underhill]

We humble stone-cutters need to work, even with the curse of the werewolves hanging over our heads. But I've done my best to keep up. Here are my observations:

Why would Boromir88 be so brash and abrasive, knowing that the mob is hungry and fearful and the rope is near?

Why would Anguirel be so quick to offer a neck? If he truly is innocent, his death gains us nothing except to draw the wolves one step nearer to victory, as littlemanpoet has spoken truly. He is either a fool or a wolf.

On the other hand, lmp talks much but says little. I'm not sure I'm buying this little back-and-forth thing he's got going with Feanor, either. Their banter has more bark than bite, and though they seem to want to project an antagonism between themselves, they've both shied from real accusations of the other until called out by Boromir88.

Of course the quiet ones are also suspects, but I think they're less likely to be wolves than the vocal ones. Wolves wouldn't want to draw such obvious and sudden suspicion on themselves.

The most obviously innocent villagers are myself and Esty... we've never been in a werewolf-afflicted village. So if anyone needs to hear me say it -- I am innocent.

[mormegil]

++Cailin

She seems most suspicious to me. I'll explain why. She's done enough to keep visible but not so much to stir the waters though she did give an unexpected vote for Eomer. Another thing for her and others is that she doesn't seem overly suspicious and on day one that seems to be the most likely wolf, if you follow me. What I am meaning is that on this day it's very easy for the wolves to avoid suspicion and therefore those who look most guilty are probably not and those who look fairly innocent could be the opposite. I know this doesn't make much sense in written form but in my muddled head it's rather clear.

That being said I found Formendacil's reaction to Boromir's vote rather interesting.

So, I'll probably be on again, but there's a possibility I won't and I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil



I find this deeply insulting...

Mainly because I don't think that there's any reason to pick on me rather than anybody else. As for picking on LMP, I wasn't saying I was GOING to vote for him, but merely that, with a lack of any sort of evidence, I may as well pick on him for his offensive lifestyle...

Seemed to rustle his feathers a bit...or should I say fur. I really considered voting for him today though I possibly will do it tomorrow.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I've found a couple things that may or may not be what Eomer & Mormegil were talking about. I'm not going to mention them either.

But I am going to bring this up: while all of us post to the board about our suspicions, remember that the werewolves are talking with each other behind our backs, setting up the next step in their dire plot to thoroughly confound the innocents amongst us. Okay, so I'm slow for not fully taking to this reality until right now, but now I'm looking square at that reality, and it really makes our situation dire. Think about it. The whole time the innocents are reading these posts, the werewolves are PMing back and forth to each other, laying out the next step of who is going to say what and why, and what effect they hope to achieve by it.

Back to Eomer's & Mormegil's little bit of cahooting. The key posts are #41 - 51. If what Eomer is talking about has any basis in innocence, then there's something in there that must be read carefully, remembering that the werewolves can PM each other at will. If so, then one or more of the following people need to be looked at very, very carefully: Cailin, Anguirel, Esty, Firefoot, and Boromir. It could be, however, that Eomer & Mormegil are in fact werewolves who are plotting this nasty little distractor to get us all fishy and wondering what's being said in there while there's absolutely nothing, and we're off looking at the above named in vain.

I don't consider myself to be quite as astute as Eomer & Mormegil in picking up on the kinds of things they claim to have found. Therefore, maybe there's something there and I'm not seeing it; or, maybe there's nothing there and these two are werewolves. If I'm dead in the morning, it may be worthwhile taking a good hard look at these two, but then maybe the real werewolves will kill me off hoping to cast suspicion on them while they're innocent. So I don't know. But I just wanted to raise the issue.

I haven't had a chance to read Shelob's and Mister Underhill's posts yet, though it's not a true cross-post.

[Firefoot]

I am willing to accept Shelob's defense for being away. She's on my watchlist, but I'm not overly suspicious of her.

I'm giving Mr. Underhill the benefit of the doubt right now. What other people are saying about him being smarter than he's showing is definitely ringing a bell, and I wholly disagree with his statement that because he and Esty are new to the game then they are innocent. However, he doesn't seem lynch-worthy to me yet.

If Fea and LMP are both wolves, then they are bluffing mightily. I wouldn't put it past either of them - far from it - but I'm not convinced that both of them are wolves. One, quite possibly, but both, hm, I don't think so. And there's really not a lot of evidence to support either of them being wolves.

Formendacil still is not sitting right with me. Like Morm, I found his reaction to the vote for him quite odd - a bit of an overreaction, which is something I look for in wolves.

If Boromir is a wolf, he's playing a very bold game. He seems to be very flippant for being so close to the noose, which would be very good werewolf strategy, but I guess I'd expect a bit more of an edge to his posts. He's edging up on my watchlist, but I'm not ready to vote for him.

Cailin is behaving a little oddly. She hi-lites two suspects of hers in her post (myself and Esty), then pulls a blinder and votes for Eomer for "no reason." Um... right.

I just realized I didn't actually give any personal feelings about TGWBS in my analysis post. So here goes: He doesn't seem particularly suspicious, but I'd like to see something of substance from him. He really hasn't said a whole lot except to declare his innocent and to say that the people who hadn't said anything were irritating.

And I'm still suspicious of Ang - he seems to say a lot, but there's not a whole lot of substance to his posts. I really can't say I have an idea of what he thinks.

So revised list: Formendacil and Cailin, followed by Fea, LMP, Boromir, and Ang.

Edit: cross-posting with LMP

[Firefoot]

Well, I'm off to bed. This vote is hard - six people seem suspicious to me, but none of them seem to say "wolf!"

++Cailin

She just seems the most suspicious to me, right now.

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 2 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 1 (Shelob 8)
Cailin - 2 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10)

The number by everyone's name is the order they voted in. With five people left to vote, this is still wide open. Vote wisely.

[mormegil]

Spreading out votes is a good thing but I am fairly convinced that having 7 people in the first mix is good enough of a mix. We probably have at least one wolf in that list that Firefoot provided. I am not attempting to dictate to anybody how they should vote but consider that when voting, so I would recommend that unless those who have a vote left strongly suspect somebody not on the list the vote for somebody already on the list.

[Shelob]

Boro's got two...Anguirel's from post#66 as well.

[littlemanpoet]

I need to go to bed. So this'll be my vote post. I take back my "official list of suspects" because it was meant to garner reaction, and didn't really. I probably did it too late in the day. That said, Mister Underhill's defense is not convincing to me either.

As I said earlier, either Eomer & Morm are werewolves plotting, or they're on to something and it behooves us to try and figure out what.

I'm willing to vote with the current assumption that Shelob, Morm, Eomer, Fea, Esty, Boromir, & Firefoot are innocent, and that Anguirel, Mister Underhill, Guy, Cailin, Formy, and Enca seem less than completely convincing and trustworthy. Lhuna hasn't shown up yet. Of those who seem untrustworthy to me, Anguirel and Cailin are those who posted between #41 & 51. A few of you have pointed out that Cailin and Anguirel both seem to be saying things without saying much. Of those two, Cailin has 2 votes to Anguirel's 1. There are too many people with 2 votes each, and I don't want to see a double lynching. So:

++Cailin

I'm sorry if you are innocent, Cailin. Someone has to die.

Edit: cross-posted with Morm and Shelob, but I was thinking that way anyway.

[Firefoot]

Shelob - thanks for pointing that out, I thought Boromir had two votes but couldn't find the other. I fixed it.

[mormegil]

Though I'd revise it.


Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 2 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 1 (Shelob 8)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

11 total votes and I believe 4 to go, I believe.

[Encaitare]

Also I realized I forgot to mention Encaitare, so insert her name in place of Firefoot's in my previous post. She's another quiet one.

OOC Statement: Like Shelob, I have had RL conflicts, and am likely to consistantly post only a few times a day. Please do not take my silence as indicative of guilt -- believe me, I'd rather be on the Downs than running around to various places and doing homework! I am therefore trying to make my few posts substantial (and loud, to make King Phantom happy. ;) )</OOCness>

You know... I think I'd like to see Encaitare get lynched. It would just make my day.

Interesting that you should make this statement and then say that you are actually suspicious of LMP and Boromir.

It's difficult to make logical accusations on Day 1. These are my thoughts for now.

Shelob - Silent for most of the day, but as we share a similar predicament, I understand her plight. No suspicion at present.

mormegil - He came up with a plan, albeit a confusing one. Most likely he's innocent, but it's possible that he knew the plan would be rejected and proposed it under the guise of helpfulness.

Cailín - I have to wonder why she voted for Eomer, though she did attribute it to nothing more than randomness and a vague suspicion, which is pretty much what we're all going on today.

the guy who be short - His immediate assertion that he is not a wolf seems a bit iffy to me -- but then again, would a wolf make that kind of slip? It could have been an honest statement, or a wolf's careless mistake. I would credit TGWBS as being too clever to make slips like that, but then again, nobody's perfect.

Anguirel - As I said earlier, he could be innocent, or he could be a bluffing wolf. He is almost definitely not a gifted, because a gifted would not offer himself to die. He could be a safe lynch victim in that respect. I know I said that his death would not be helpful in catching a wolf if he was innocent, but with the interest of not killing off our gifteds, Seer especially, I may vote for him. Better safe than sorry, I guess.

Encaitare - Well, gosh, I know I'm innocent.

Boromir88 - seems very irreverent about the whole thing. Plus, he's rather rude, but that's in character. The whole attitude could be a bold bluff.

Firefoot - Her arguments seem logical, and I am not suspicious of her right now.

Lhunardawen - Nothing to go on, really.

littlemanpoet - I don't like his attitude towards us ladies, but that's just his character, so I am willing to let that slide.

Feanor of the Peredhil - I'd like to know why she wants me lynched. Could just be that she, out of her silly sense of humor, would find it amusing. She claims to have found "either two known innocent, or two known wolves". For such an outright statement, I doubt she's the Seer. But I have to wonder what she thinks she knows. Perhaps these two are LMP and B88, whom she later said she suspects.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - The real information in his posts is flanked by in-character commentary. Perhaps it's a little overused? No real suspicion, however.

Formendacil - was "deeply insulted" by an accusation. Could just be the traditional first-day response to an accusation, could be a little more defensive. Yet he voted for Mr. Underhill, and although I don't think I'll do the same, I agree with his reasoning.

Estelyn Telcontar - I'm used to seeing Esty taking charge and getting things done. As a new player, I can understand how she's on the quiet side... but even so, I'd like to hear more from her.

Mister Underhill - Formendacil mentioned before that he is very intelligent and seems to be "playing dumb". Could be lupine behavior.

No doubt I have cross-posted with someone while composing this post. I shall read any other responses and vote shortly.

EDIT: Yep, cross-posted with LMP, Firefoot, and Mormegil.

[Encaitare]

Okay, it seems no one else has anything to say at present, so I am going to go ahead and cast my vote. My reasoning has been mentioned in the previous post:

Anguirel - As I said earlier, he could be innocent, or he could be a bluffing wolf. He is almost definitely not a gifted, because a gifted would not offer himself to die. He could be a safe lynch victim in that respect. I know I said that his death would not be helpful in catching a wolf if he was innocent, but with the interest of not killing off our gifteds, Seer especially, I may vote for him. Better safe than sorry, I guess.

++ANGUIREL

[Mister Underhill]

Unfortunately, my time is constrained too, especially today, so people shouldn't read too much into my infrequent posting. It's all I can do to keep up with reading the thread at this pace. I'm also a new villager among experienced veterans, feeling my way.

Wish I had more time for analysis, but the deadline draweth nigh. I'll vote:

+ + Anguirel

He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff.

[Lhunardawen]

*comes in panting*

Oh goodness, I overslept! My apologies, dear fellow villagers (and hidden werewolves). I've had a lot to heal the day before (physically and emotionally - my, are there a lot of heartbroken people in the land!) and was overcome by such a weariness you could not even imagine. Thank you all for not casting any vote against me for this reason. (tgwbs: Me? Different timezone? What gave you that idea? But it's rather interesting, to say the least.)

Poor Lord Phantom. Had those despicable minions of the Dark Lord even given us the body of that endearing person I would have done my best to resuscitate him. He is who we really need as such a time as this. But then again, that was why he was brutally murdered in the first place.

Ah, and what's this? Suspicion against my effectiveness thrown my way? Well, well, Boromir, you have to admit that those warts stopped pestering you after the amputation. ;)

From what I've been hearing for the past Day I must say that the voting is going really well; the more votees there are, the more information we can glean for the coming Days. It would be inevitable for a fellow innocent to be lynched in the process, but what must be done must be done.

Now, for my observations.

I am rather touched by Anguirel's defense of Esty. But he could very easily be a werewolf hiding behind this noble act.

Boromir88 is just wolvish...too wolvish, I must say. He could be merely a misguided innocent, or one in need of my healing, or a lycan hiding out in the open. I will keep my eyes on him - unless he is lynched toDay, that is.

I'm not certain what to make out of tgwbs and Esty voting for silent Shelob. Pouncing upon a defenseless villager is very suspicious. Maybe the fact that Esty is a newcomer to this village can be used in her defense, but maybe not. It won't be fair to vote for her just yet. As for tgwbs following suit...hmm.

lmp is being very scary in his barely concealed desire to get Esty and Fea alone.

Fea is being...Fea.

As my poor brain is still trying to wake itself up, I am not yet ready for any critical actions, in this case to vote. While there is time to spare I'll try to nudge this convoluted thing inside my cranium awake and be done with this.

[Shelob]

Alright...A couple of points before I must go.

1. Firefoot, thanks for saying you trust my innocene. However I note I'm still on your watch list, that's exactly the problem I'm in...innocent enough not to be lynched suspicious enough that the wolves won't kill me. Watch, good odds that I survive the night and am the cause of nothing but circular discussion upon the morrow.

2. Anguirel and Cailin are tied now, 3 for 3. I suggest either someone breaks the tie or adds me to it (incidently, if I seem somewhat suicidal today it's mostly because I've just realized I have another college visit which will knock me out the discussions on DAY 2...and I'd much rather go out on my own terms than because I "was being too quiet")

3. Voting, with M'lord Phantom's decree that in a case of a more-than-two way tie the first and last person to reach the tied number of votes are lynched it would right now be either Cailin and Anguirel, one or the other (of one's placed ahead) or one of them (Cailin as is now, possibly Anguirel if the votes could work out) and then either Boro or myself (since we're both now a vote short of the current tie)...depending on how that turns out we're going to have to consider and deduce the most advantagous places for wolves to have voted (even if it turns out to be early, and for someone completely different)

4. I've now moved Firefoot up somewhat on my list of suspicions...
>In my mind there's nothing to be gained by not lynching someone who asks to die. If we go into the Day saying "if someone asks to be killed we'll kill them" we make it impossible for anyone to try and double-double bluff their way to innocence. Look at it this way, a wolf comes into the day saying "I'll ask to be lynched. Clearly no wolf would ask for something so suicidal so they'll assume I'm innocent and I'll survive." Makes sense, right? Well if we're all coming in saying "If you ask to be lynched you'll be lynched" they can't do that.
>Working from that, and combining it with my belief that the wolves will want to keep me alive so as to act as an "unknown" and wolf-shield it makes even less sense to want to keep me around...you're playing right into the wolf's assumption that anyone asking to be killed will be assumed innocent and therefore not killed...
>I know Firefoot's not alone, a couple of you have expressed ideas saying "She wants us to kill her, no wolves want us to kill them, ergo she's innocent ergo we don't kill her"...Firefoot's just getting named because, well, because she commented on it first and I'm too tired to look up the rest of you...but you know who you are...and, presumably, the rest of you can go look them up yourselves...

Finally, as much as I'm asking to be killed, I understand the need to hunt down wolves rather than lynch "known" innocents (note the quotation marks, I strongly believe that except to the seer and wolves nobody actually knows another person to be innocent until said-suspected-person ceases to be, well, and the ranger--if their save worked, but that doesn't apply to us yet) for this reason if you decide to keep me alive into the next DAY of our hunt I will try to add what I can, though it'll likely only be an early comment and early vote...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Interesting that you should make this statement
Well I'm just an interesting sort of girl.

Could just be that she, out of her silly sense of humor, would find it amusing.
*nods* mhm.

Perhaps these two are LMP and B88, whom she later said she suspects.
No.

I feel that I should reiterate this point.... No. At no point have I felt them to be innocent. Less than guilty, maybe, but I do not pretend to be confident about them at all.

Now...

Form[h]endacil votes for UndMistererhill votes for el Anguir votes for B88 (just so you know, I put those 8s in the wrong order) votes for Formy. My circular argument works!!!

Ahem. Sorry. Shall I be more serious?

I think I'll vote B88 tonight, due to the fact that he works too much like me, and I make myself nervous. Seriously, if I was playing with me in a game, I'd be the first to bandwagon myself. :D But I've got a while yet... I don't plan on going to bed until about 1:30, which conveniently coincides with the end of the day. That means that I can hold my vote to make sure no funny business happens. And just so y'all don't think I'm a wolf holding out so's I can seal an innocent's fate... I'm a college student. You know... when I'm not doing my wenching. I'm up that late any how, so I may as well take full advantage of my time. If I happen to accidentally kill an innocent... you'll have my sincerest regret, but I assure you that it won't be because I maliciously stayed up past my bed time to do it.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So I've noticed a mistake on my own part: of all of the villagers, only two of us haven't voted yet... myself, and Lhuna.
And since I have nothing against both Boromir88 and Anguirel dying, I must admit to not minding doing this:

++Boromir88

I'm not at all sure about Anguirel, but I'd really be a lot more comfortable without Boromir. I'm sure I already explained it quite clearly with my explanation of how I'd make it a point to kill myself. :rolleyes: I can survive without Anguirel as so many other people have expressed suspicion.

I'm not sure what Lhuna will do with her vote, but I can't think about that at the moment. Since you'll all probably speculate on what changed my mind about staying up, I'll keep it short but tell you: my breathing skills just went on holiday, which worries me. Also, my morning injury of managing to hit myself in the shoulder blade with my own car door has caught up with me and hurts. So I'm going to bed. Nighty night.

[Lhunardawen]

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 3 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

So the last vote for the first Day falls on me.

With a triple-tie to deal with. Thanks a lot, guys.

I tell you that I will not be help responsible for the outcome. How could you put me in such a situation as this?!

*deep, deep sigh*

I'll be back.

[Lhunardawen]

I see no reason as yet for Cailín to receive my vote. Boromir88 is too suspicious to be true, and is worth watching. Therefore, much as I adore his chivalry, my vote shall be cast hence:

++ANGUIREL

*gets a basin of water and washes hands vigorously*

[mormegil]

Well I believe all votes are cast and though I may be wrong it was something that I say in Anguirel early on. It was his constant talk of the seer and telling the seer how to behave that caught me off guard. It seemed that he was telling the seer to do nothing but sit and make no accusation or defense at this stage thus revealing the seer. Now that might not have been what Eomer saw but that is what I saw. Now what could it mean? I'm guessing that he's either a wolf or the seer and that's why I didn't say anything about it before, if he was the seer I didn't want to point it out. My plan was to wait and see, I would keep my eye on him and assess when more information was to be had. If Eomer saw this too his plan seems to be the same as mine. So I am somewhat saddened that Anguirel is going today and hope that whatever he is it's not the seer.

[the phantom]

Post coming soon....

[the phantom]

Day one in Erbar Telamarth was like Day One in every other village that wolves had ever infiltrated- it was a shot in the dark.

"Let's lynch the most suspicious villager," said someone who was not very suspicious.

"No, we should lynch a random villager," suggested a suspicious villager.

"No, that's a terrible idea!" objected several random villagers.

Cailin, who was overly optimistic and possibly a bit off her rocker, unhelpfully suggested, "We should lynch a werewolf!"

"We're probably going to end up accidentally lynching our Seer," moaned Shelob, who was prone to pessimism.

"No, we'll probably end up double lynching the Seer and the Hunter and the Hunter will take down the Ranger with him," whined Encaitare, who was even more pessimistic than Shelob.

"Well- I say we lynch the quietest person!" yelled littlemanpoet, who had been awfully talkative.

"No way. The wolves are probably all loud and they are trying to push us around," returned Mister Underhill. "Let's lynch a loud person."

"I say we lynch the person with the smelliest job!" bellowed the guy who be short, looking pointedly at Formendacil.

Formendacil glared at the dwarf, and shot back "Well, I say we lynch the shortest!"

"You're ALL a bunch of MORONS!" screamed Boromir, insulting the entire village for the umpteenth time that day.

"I wish you'd stop needling everyone!" chided Esty, the seamstress.

"I think we should lynch Esty for trying to be punny," offered Anguirel.

"Oh, don't be so knit-picky!" said Esty.

Everyone groaned.

Amid the confusion of the village, someone asked, "Is there a reason not to lynch Anguirel?"

Eager to be off to bed, the other villagers quickly decided that there was not a reason not to lynch him.

"Well, I guess this serves me right for offering myself to be lynched," muttered Anguirel, the noble knight errant, as he was tied up.

"Will you at least give me a swift, clean death... you know... don't beat me or anything, like has happened in other villages?"

The villagers talked it over and agreed that, as the cream of the crop, they should conduct themselves in a noble manner during all lynchings.

"But if Ang's a wolf, won't we really regret not being mean to him?" asked Lhuna.

"Lhuna's right!" shouted one villager.

"Let's get him!!"

Everyone grabbed a blunt item and proceeded to beat the poor, defenseless knight into pulp. Old boards, fire pokers, golden scepters, and the jawbone of a donkey all left their marks upon the knight's completely human body.

DEAD

the phantom (moderator)
Anguirel (ordinary)


Score: Innocents- 11, Wolves- 3

No one is to post on this thread until Day Two has started.

Wolves, Seer, Hunter, Ranger- I need your picks by 12:30 AM EST.

[the phantom]

The orcs had cut down the lone tree on Bald Hill and turned it into a crude throne. Sauron sat upon it, staring towards the village.

"How are things going down there?" asked Mortakh.

"The first day went well," Sauron answered. "The villagers lynched one of the wisest and noble men they had- a knight, no less. He could've given us quite a bit of trouble."

"He certainly won't now!" cackled the orc captain. "And he- what is it, Lord Sauron?!"

Sauron, who had suddenly stood to his feet, said nothing for quite some time. Finally, he muttered, "Things aren't going quite so well tonight."

[the phantom]

The three wolves emerged from Eomer of the Rohirrim's house. They had gone there intending to kill him, but he wasn't at home for some reason, so they started sniffing around outside trying to pick up his trail.

One of the wolves gave a low grunt- the trail had been found.

It led them first out of the village to the northeast, but then turned south-southeast towards the small river that flowed west to east a bowshot south of the village.

The wolves reached the river at a spot about half a mile from the village. Why in the world would a villager come way out here at night? they thought, standing on the treeless bank under the bright moonlight.

Just then, an arrow came whizzing out of the forest behind them. The wolves had lightning fast reflexes, and threw themselves flat upon hearing the sound. One of the wolves started to get up to rush the attacker, but another arrow came flying out of the dark and forced the wolf back onto its stomach.

As the arrow was being loosed, the other two wolves charged forward, knowing that the assailant would not be able to shoot arrows at them once they were back under the shadows of the trees.

The wolves saw the gleam of steel beneath the trees ahead. The attacker was running from them. The wolves howled, the wild delight of the hunt filling their dark hearts.

A bright patch appeared up ahead- a clearing in the trees. The wolves saw their opponent in good lighting for the first time. It was a sturdy, armor-clad man. When he reached the middle of the clearing he stopped and turned, bow at the ready. The wolves watched him from the cover of the trees, not wanting to show themselves for fear of being shot. They could see his face. It was Eomer.

Realizing that the wolves would hide as long as he had his bow out, Eomer tossed aside his bow and arrows and drew two swords that were strapped across his back. One was his own, and the other was Anguirel's.

Anguirel, the knight errant who was lynched the day before, had sensed a warrior's spirit in Eomer, and had, before his death, requested that his sword be given to Eomer.

The three wolves emerged from the trees, and began to circle Eomer, snarling and snapping their jaws. All at once, the three jumped at him. The collision was violent, and all four combatants fell to the ground. Eomer prepared to strike the dazed wolf on his left, but the wolf to his right leaped up and sunk his teeth into Eomer's right arm. Eomer struck the wolf in the face with the hilt of Anguirel's sword, which he held in his left hand, but the wolf did not release its grip.

Eomer then thrust at the wolf's belly, but as he did the third wolf hit him from behind like a battering ram. As he fell to the ground he felt the beast's teeth sink into his neck, and knew his life was at an end.

He also knew that he had not died in vain, for he was sure that the last sword thrust he had made had found the heart of a wolf.

[the phantom]

The news the search party brought back to the village that morning was both good and bad.

Bad- Eomer had been found dead in a clearing.

Good- The half transformed body of Cailin had been found in the same clearing.

As was the case in another recently attacked village, Eomer and Cailin lived and died as one. :p

Living-

Shelob (beggar)
mormegil (messanger)
the guy who be short (dwarf)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
Lhunardawen (healer)
littlemanpoet (lecherous innkeeper/bartender)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Formendacil (gong farmer)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling wolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)


Score: Villagers- 10, Wolves- 2

The following players have informed me that their participation will be somewhat under their usual today- mormegil, Lhunardawen, and Shelob.

If you have a RL conflict that will limit your posting, let me know via pm so I can add your name to the list above.

[mormegil]

Songs shall be sung for many years of the heroism and foresight of Eomer the Valiant. While a recreant mercenary he served our village well and I am glad he chose so wisely. It seems that he and I had similar suspicions.

This is a critical break for us and our voting yesterday should help being that 3 of us voted for Cailin, it would seem to clear LMP, Firefoot and myself; though not 100% I think the three of us can be trusted. Yesterday's voting also, I think, cast some strong suspicion on the following

Encai gave the second vote to Anguirel to make it 3 for Cailin and 2 for Ang

Mister Underhill tied the vote between Anguirel and Cailin

Feanor cast her vote for Boromir88 making it a three way tie and if left a three way tie both Boromir and Anguirel would die, at least one is innocent and most likely Boromir is innocent too.

Lhuna Broke the tie and essentially put the nail in Anguirel's coffin. Now this was a wise move on her part either as an innocent or a wolf. Innocents don't want double lynching this early and wolves want to look like the prevented it.

So what does this all mean? I think Feanor and Mister Underhill are most suspect in this whole affair. Feanor caused a three way tie and Underhill tied the vote hoping to save Cailin.

What do others think?

[mormegil]

I made a mistake in my analysis that changes things a bit.

I thought that the first person voted for, in the event of a tie so it would have been Boro and then the last person which would have been Boro but the next was Ang. The way it actually is would have Boro and Cailin go if the three way tie remained. :o I'm sorry for this and I think it cast a bit less suspicion on Fea.

I just thought of something that is not likely but I always come up with crazy ideas so here it goes:

There is a chance that Firefoot or LMP are trying to pull off a double bluff and knew or hoped, at least that the final wolf would not vote until the end thus breaking the possibility of Cailin. While I write this it makes less sense than it did at the beginning so I would think now that this is not probable.

So my new analysis cast a lot more suspicion on Lhuna and does not clear up Boro's name one bit. Mister Underhill is still highly suspicious however.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Alas, poor Anguirel, we did him a grave injustice! His death should be mourned, for he was a valiant and chivalrous knight. Why, he came to my defense when Boromir insulted me - he treated me, a lowly seamstress, like a princess! I wept much late last evening and then decided to pay him tribute in the only way I know how. It cost me some loss of sleep, but here is a rose (http://www.threadartist.com/images/machine-embroidery-designs-16009.jpg) I embroidered to lay on his grave.

I would like to clear up one misunderstanding that was expressed by several of you concerning me - my vote for Shelob was not on account of her silence. Please do not connect me and my choices with the decisions others make. Mine was a truly random choice and actually made by using a children's rhyme.

And now another valiant man has died, Eomer. This grievous loss is perhaps alleviated somewhat by his bravery in killing one of the wolves. His death may save some of our lives, indeed I fervently hope so! Yet mourn him we must, though we have not much time to do so. The urgency of our situation demands all of our wit and determination, lest we all suffer his fate.

My first thought yesterday was that at least one or two wolves must have been involved in the decision about Anguirel's death. It is plain to see that they would not all expose themselves through obvious unity, and now we see that Cailín, whose vote for Eomer unfortunately gives us no helpful clues for future debating, was herself a werewolf.

Was it a wolf who first suspected and voted for him? Shelob cast the first vote. Yet since it was the first day, the possibility that she chose as randomly as I did is great. The other three who voted for Ang are: Encaitare, Mister Underhill, and Lhunardawen. My suspicion is that at least one of them is a werewolf. I eagerly look forward to discussing the events and our possibilities with the rest of you today. Perhaps together we shall find counsel.

[the guy who be short]

Firstly, I have come under fire for voting for Shelob (nothing personal). Voting for a silent person makes sense in that it eliminates a potential wild card in the future. The first Day almost always results in an innocent dying anyway, so it's a good strategy.

Now, "something of substance."

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.

Conclusion:

Innocents:
Mormegil
Firefoot
LMP
Enca
Fea?

Wolves:
Mr U
Lhuna?

[Lhunardawen]

Oh dear, dear Eomer! It is a sad fate that befell you. Try as I might I cannot bring your mangled corpse back to life. Farewell, and rest in peace.

I have not listened to the conversations of the past Day as thoroughly as I should have, and it has cost the village the life of a knight who could have greatly helped us in our plight. I have to admit that deciding who to lynch among the three was very difficult for me, for breaking a triple-tie is something I have never experienced in the villages I have wandered into in the past. Truly then I could not yet bring myself to vote for Cailín, for I have not seen why she was being suspected. Alas that I have erred.

Upon finding out that the valiant Anguirel was an innocent, I knew that I would at once be under suspicion. I have no valid defense against that, just that then I was misguided and my mind still subject to the ignorance caused by slumber. But I swear on the graves of our fallen comrades (of course not counting that lycan Cailín) that I am innocent. Even if you ask the Seer to dream of me toNight or decide to lynch me toDay, that is what you will discover.

As my duties call me away for the rest of the Day, I will spend the time that I have now to recall the discussions of the past Day, then I shall cast my early vote.

[Lhunardawen]

The time for me to attend to my healing duties has come. This is the most sensible vote I can come up with from the past events:

++MISTER UNDERHILL

for reasons already stated above. May I not commit the same mistake as I did yesterDay.

[Shelob]

Well Working from the votes I would guess that those three who, in fairly quick sucsession (ie: all voting in a row) put Cailin in yesterday's lead would most likely not be wolves. Since there were still plenty of votes left to come in it could be worth wile wolf-risk on the first day...but for now I'll work on the assumption their innocent.

As to a more "wolfish" vote I'd have to say that Lhuna's both is and isn't. It broke a tie (innocent) but could have been wolf saving wolf (wolf, clearly).

Since I am forced to vote early and I would rather not not vote for one already voted for I'll have to work from that, my appologies I'd rather give it more thought, but today cannot.

++Lhuna

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.
Well Working from the votes I would guess that those three who, in fairly quick sucsession (ie: all voting in a row) put Cailin in yesterday's lead would most likely not be wolves.
Can you feel my exasperation from all the way over there, TGWBS, Shelob? I should hope so, as there's a lot of this. You guys always do this! And you know what? It always turns out badly for you. By "you guys" I don't actually mean the two of you, but I do mean that in any instance where this happens, it works out badly.

Listen to me: don't underestimate the audacity of the wolves. How much common sense would it take to absolutely secure the vision of your innocence by sacrificing one of your own? All they had to do was kill off Cailin, or show that they were trying to, and anybody on that list is golden.

And with the three-way tying rule of the first and last dead, it makes it really tough to get who you want killed anyhow, especially this early. Voting early for Cailin, who there was such a high chance of still surviving, is not as risky as you would think. I mean, look... she didn't die by our hands, she died by those of the noble Eomer (may his spirit find comfort with those of our poor departed phantom and our brave Sir Anguirel).

But my point is, wolves are willing to do anything. Here's a good rule of wrist that you should seriously keep in mind: Even though Fea's innocent, judge anything the wolves *might* do by what she'd be willing to do if she was one of them.

The first thing I'd do as a wolf was sacrifice my kin, whether with their knowledge or without it. Because people automatically assume it wouldn't happen.

Don't do that.

Expect the worst and prepare for it. How hard would you kick yourselves if I'm right in my vague suspicion of LMP (agian... :eek:)? You've immediately discount him based on faulty evidence just because of the assumption that nobody would be that audacious.

Don't do that.

The only true proof of innocence is death or Seer identification. Which, on that note, let me keep you on the up and up that I'm pretty glad I didn't mention that I thought 'Mer might have Seen something good about mormegil. Even though I was wrong, looks like the wolves may have thought the same.

I'll post more later... I've got a [tavern wenching] class to get ready for. Horrible boss of mine, you know? Making me get up to go to an 8:00 AM class on [how to properly wench a tavern].

Just... please don't underestimate? Please?

[Boromir88]

Estelyn, my dear, we aren't going to continue this who insulted who again today are we? :p Unless of course, you want me to continue, because you're a wolf and it will keep everyone off focus?

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close.~tgwbs
I wouldn't be so certain on that. With a lot of suspicion around other people (mainly myself), it wouldn't be so bold. I think it goes to show that these three are probably innocent, but it's quite possible one is a wolf, though the two remaining in there, I doubt it.

I got to give it up to Eomer, he's been the smartest one from this village so far, and of course the wolves kill him, but he did find a wolf. I give him credit for that.

Eomer seems to be the safest pick for the wolves. He hadn't attracted much suspicion, everyone just kind of ignored Cailin's vote (and I'm glad), so really he was the prime target for wolves.

Based on voting yesterday:

Anguirel for Boromir=(Boromir; 1)
Estelyn for Shelob= (Boromir; 1, Shelob; 1)
tgwbs for Shelob= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2)
Cailin for Eomer= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 1, Eomer; 1)
Eomer for Boromir= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1)
Boromir for Formendacil= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1, Formendacil; 1)
Formendacil for Mr. U= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1, Form; 1, Mr. U; 1)
Shelob for Anguirel= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1, Form; 1, Mr. U; 1, Anguriel; 1)
Mormegil for Cailin
Firefoot for Cailin
lmp for Cailin= (Cailin; 3, Boromir; 2, Shelob; 2, Eomer; 1, Form; 1, Mr. U.; 1, Anguirel; 1).
Enca for Anguirel
Mr. U for Anguirel= (Cailin; 3, Anguirel; 3, Boromir; 2, Shelob; 2,...the rest)
Feanor for Boromir= (Cailin; 3, Anguirel; 3, Boromir; 3)
Lhuna for Anguirel= (Anguirel; 4, Cailin; 3, Boromir; 3)

I'm also suspicious of anyone trying to write off who's innocent and who's not, because we can't tell, and it's stupid to assume anyone's innocent, you're only fooling yourself.

I will say right now the MOST innocent looking people are...
Boromir
Mormegil
Firefoot
lmp

Now if a wolf voted for Cailin, I think most likely would have been mormegil, believing that he was just kind of throwing away his vote and it would look nice.

I fail to see why Fea is innocent in all this. She set up a three way tie, and voted for me, a known innocent! And if it wasn't for Lhuna, you would have all been rid of me, and the wolves would have killed you all.

Ok, so where was a wolf most likely to vote yesterday?

I'd say, vote for Anguirel, and a vote for me.

So who voted for Anguirel?
Shelob
Encaitare
Mr. U
Lhuna

Right now I say Encaitare and Mr. Underhill may look the most suspicious. Lhuna is an experienced person when it comes to wolves, if she's a wolf, she played stupidly yesterday. But, that doesn't mean she isn't a dumb wolf.

And the only person alive who voted for me is Fea. What a perfect ploy by the wolves. Get Anguirel hanged, kill the other person who voted for me, then look you're in there with two innocents. So Fea, I'd watch out, you're either a wolf, or you're going to die, because it just seems like that happens to people who vote for me...I wonder why, maybe because I'm innocent and if you vote for me you deserve to die!

[Boromir88]

Double posting here...
Listen to me: don't underestimate the audacity of the wolves. How much common sense would it take to absolutely secure the vision of your innocence by sacrificing one of your own? All they had to do was kill off Cailin, or show that they were trying to, and anybody on that list is golden.~Fea
Atleast we agree on something Miss wolf.

[Firefoot]

Boromir, I'm not sure where you get yourself to be a proven innocent, except to yourself, maybe. You're not dead, we don't have the Seer's word, and you don't have a vote to say that you're probably innocent. I am leaning toward your innocence (or at least, I was, mostly due to your unconcerned manner, but it's posts like that that keep me concerned), but that doesn't preclude Fea's guilt. She's just about as likely to be a wolf as anyone.

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

I'm still suspicious of Formendacil. We all seem to be assuming that the wolf voted later and with strategy concerned with Cailin, but there are RL circumstances to prevent that. A wolf could very well have voted earlier, as Cailin did.

Shelob is also edging up on my suspicion list. Before, she was on my watchlist because basically everyone was. Day 1 is too soon to discount anybody. But I really don't understand the accusations she was making at the end of Day 1. Also, her continued insistence that the wolves wouldn't kill her during the night is disconcerting.

As for the other people who voted for Ang:

Encai - she just doesn't seem very suspicious to me. Her posts make very logical sense to me, and I tend to agree with her statements.

Mr. Underhill - I'm not sure what to think of him. He's on my suspicion list, but other than his late vote for Ang, I can't come up with anything concrete.

Lhuna - That's a question, isn't it? Her vote for Ang could easily have been chance or calculated. It would have been a difficult decision for either a wolf or an innocent. She's on my suspicion list, but I don't think her vote for Ang is enough reason to lynch her unless we have no other better suspects.

Others:

Esty - I'm not sure about her, but right now I'm leaning innocent. There are too many people I find more suspicious than her.

TGWBS - Also leaning innocent. More suspicious than Esty, maybe, but his analysis of yesterday's voting largely made sense to me.

Fea - I could go either way. While I haven't seen anything outstandingly suspicious about her, I wouldn't expect to; nor would I put anything past her. If she was an innocent, she honestly wouldn't know about any of the three (Ang, Cailin, and Borormir); and if she were a wolf her vote for Boromir basically says that she doesn't care which of those three dies and gives the remaining person another option so as not to be overtly protecting Cailin. And actually, from Fea, I think a vote sealing Cailin's fate would have made her look more suspicious. But then, she could be double-bluffing. It's Fea. All that to say "leaning innocent."

[mormegil]

I don't have much to say right now other than for my purposes today I will be assuming that LMP and Firefoot are innocent. I realize that there could be one wolf in the three of us but it's not incredibly likely, though possible, but having the two remaining wolves is rather improbable so to help clear up my head I will look to those other two as innocent for today and then reevaluate tomorrow.

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her. :p

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I've been rehashing yesterDay's discussions and my head is spinning. After only one day, though we were lucky to lose a werewolf already, there still isn't enough evidence for anything even closely resembling certainty. Since I'm convinced that at least one wolf voted for Anguirel, my suspicion is concentrated on Shelob, Enca, Underhill and Lhuna. It seems easier to find one out of four than two out of twelve! (sound mathematics, that!)

Shelob has already voted for Lhuna today. That could tell us something, but what? A wolf pretending to lynch another wolf? Or an innocent guessing?

[Mister Underhill]

Well it's no fun to wake up and find that not only do I have the blood of an innocent on my hands, but now I'm a chief suspect as well. I mourn Anguirel, but I curse him too -- by offering his neck for the noose, he may end up bringing another innocent -- me -- down with him, and that would be a sad legacy.

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Also Cailin is only dead because we had a wise hunter. Cailin *didn't* get voted down by us. So I don't see how a vote for Cailin makes anyone golden.

If the wolves were smart, and I have no doubt they were, they'd want to space out their votes, and hold at least one until fairly late in case of trouble. Since Cailin voted early on, I'd say that puts everyone from Mormegil back under suspicion (I realize this still leaves me on the suspicious list).

The way the voting stood when Morm cast the first vote for Cailin, it would have been an easy throwaway vote for a wolf to divert suspicion, but I think this unlikely. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility -- at this point it seemed unlikely that Cailin would be voted, and Morm could have this vote to show later if the two of them were ever linked.

Morm and Firefoot voted two in a row for Cailin, so it seems unlikely to me that they're both wolves.

Then along comes lmp and casts a third vote for Cailin. This would be an audacious vote for a wolf. It would put Cailin ahead, but with the possible knowledge that another wolf could come along and create a tie, sparing Cailin. Don't know what to think here, and it seems a stretch now that I'm writing it down.

Enca's vote for Ang created a three-way tie for second, an interesting setup but I don't see much in it to suspect either innocent or guilty.

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

I only hope you will see that a wolf, even a newbie wolf, wouldn't make a move that would cast such obvious suspicion on himself.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

Lhuna's tie-breaker sealed the fate of Anguirel and saved Cailin, at least from our collective cudgels -- but would a wolf make such an obvious blundering move? Probably not.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

I'm almost too bewildered to come up with my own suspcions. Based on my analysis, I'd say Feanor's crafty vote makes her my top suspect.

[littlemanpoet]

As with Day One, I'm going to deal with one post at a time, due to time constraints throughout the day. So I may have more posts than most of you, with less said per post. Bear it in mind, please.


The news the search party brought back to the village that morning was both good and bad.

Bad- Eomer had been found dead in a clearing.

Good- The half transformed body of Cailin had been found in the same clearing.

I couldn't make up my mind about Eomer yesterday because I wasn't sure who he was referring to in posts 41-51. I did see something in what Cailin said that made me suspicious, but then Eomer went and voted for Boromir who also had a post inbetween 41 & 51, so I wasn't sure whether Eomer was messing around with innocent, or werewolf minds. I'm glad to see it was the latter. Well done, good hero, sad to see you yet again leave the game so early; at least it wasn't by lynching, and your heroism will not go unremembered. I'll engrave something on a cask so that your name will be remembered even if the village fails. May your spirit find its home beyond the walls of the world.

[littlemanpoet]

This is a critical break for us and our voting yesterday should help being that 3 of us voted for Cailin, it would seem to clear LMP, Firefoot & myself; though not 100% I think the three of us can be trusted.

Encai gave the second vote to Anguirel to make it 3 for Cailin and 2 for Ang

Mister Underhill tied the vote between Anguirel and Cailin

Feanor cast her vote for Boromir88 making it a three way tie and if left a three way tie both Boromir and Anguirel would die, at least one is innocent and most likely Boromir is innocent too.

Lhuna Broke the tie and essentially put the nail in Anguirel's coffin. Now this was a wise move on her part either as an innocent or a wolf. Innocents don't want double lynching this early and wolves want to look like the prevented it.

So what does this all mean? I think Feanor and Mister Underhill are most suspect in this whole affair. Feanor caused a three way tie and Underhill tied the vote hoping to save Cailin.

What do others think?

Thanks for your relative confidence in me, Morm; it was your consistency in both suspecting and voting for Cailin, that led to my cautious confidence in you, since I also found something in Cailin's post that was unsettling. Thus my vote; in fact, I was waiting to see which of the 41-51 posters you would vote for, and was pleased to see it was Cailin.

I do find the persons you listed above to be the most suspect, even Feanor, though you realized her error in judgement, confusing Anguirel & Cailin. Nevertheless, though it may be that pain and difficulty breathing may have hampered her judgment, Feanor is clever enough to use such spurious reasoning to look innocent when she is in fact an evil minion of Sauron, if that is the case; so I wouldn't write her off your watch list just yet.

[littlemanpoet]

Mormegil, Firefoot & LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.
Whereas I appreciate your confidence in me (quite happy to have gotten one right for a change!), I'm somewhat startled by the confidence with which you forge ahead. These conclusions seem reasonable and sound on the face of it, but there is very little that we can take at such face value in this game. One point of argument I have with you is in regards to Feanor's supposed innocence; I'm not saying she's not innocent, just that I'm not convinced - yet. Another is Enca, whom I feel you excuse too easily. I am solid agreement with you as regards Lhuna & Mr. U..

[Mister Underhill]

I'm looking back over these supposed magic #41-51 posts, trying to see what other such as lmp "saw" in Cailin's posts that gave him away, and I'm seeing nothing. Can someone help me out here? How did you guys zero in on Cailin? Or is at least one of you running a double-bluff and "knew" it was Cailin because, well, you really knew it was Cailin?

[the guy who be short]

I appear to have come under a little fire for my former conclusions. I shall therefore re-assess everything I previously stated. Like most reassessments, the vast majority of people will finish worse off. :p

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.Hmm. Morm voted when two other people had two votes each, so it looked unlikely Cailin would die. He could still be a wolf, I guess, but looks neutral to me at the moment.
Firefoot and LMP are not wolves. Definite. There is simply no reason a wolf would willingly vote for one of their own on the first day when there was a serious chance of that wolf being voted off, no matter what Feanor claims. ;)

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.I stand by this. Though the evidence seems less strong now, it would still have made more sense for a wolf-Enca to vote Shelob or B88. Enca seems innocent.
I am now far less sure about Mr U's lycanthropy than I was before. He could potentially be a wolf; however, maybe I'm just sentimental, but his plea seemed genuine to me. I put him on my "wolfy" list. His tie could have been an attempt to save Cailin though.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.Feanor still looks innocent to me. No reaon to cause a triple tie, including at least one fellow wolf, when she could have just voted Ang and be done with it.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.Lhuna was forced to break a tie. This is never easy. I'm ust not sure.

After this, it will appear that I have contracted extreme schizophrenia. Such is life. Here is a list of votes for those who would like another look:

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

Wolfy:
Mr U
Lhuna

Neutral:
Morm

Innocent Looking:
Enca
Fea

Innocent:
LMP
Firefoot

Now, there are several people who have been left off my list. I have absolutely no confidence in my Wolfy list, though I'm certain of my conclusions concerning people's innocence. I will most likely vote for somebody who has not yet been mentioned, somebody flying under the radar, to use a cliché.

[Formendacil]

And so another day comes, with another day's killing, and thanks be to the Valar, Eomer managed to catch us our first Werewolf. Compared with my past life in another village, this is a great improvement- except for my new job of course. Shovelling refuse when I used to write it is no improvement...

And now, to my personal feelings...

Estelyn seems a little be out of place. Her vote for Shelob yesterday truly does seem random, and she has certainly not seemed entirely comfortable in all this confusion. On the other hand, she's definitely an intelligent lady, and the whole "out of place" business COULD be a very careful ploy to appear innocent.

tgwbs also seems reasonably innocent. His vote for Shelob also doesn't seem particularly menacing. However, I have greater qualms about him than about Estelyn. He is, after all, a dwarf experienced at life in villages with Werewolf problems. If he was the Werewolf, then he would likely want Shelob removed, knowing her reputation as being too smart to survive long.

Boromir, having voted for me, is naturally somewhat suspicious in my mind. But I'm willing to let that pass as having been a random vote. However, he plays an uncanny game, and it is possible that he was a Werewolf looking for a random vote to throw away on Day 1.

Shelob, as the one who started voting for Anguirel, could have been an innocent villager casting a random vote. Anguirel WAS, after all, playing a rather foolish game with that "lynch me" bluff- especially once they took him up on it. However, Shelob doesn't seem that suspicious.

Mormegil's vote for Cailin at the point in the game that he voted is rather suspicious. With Cailin getting tied up as the third person with two votes, it is quite possible that he was a Werewolf trying to appear as her opposite- a villager. On the other hand, he is the one who brought her up to what I'll call, Bandwaggon status

Firefoot's vote for for Cailin at this point seems to exonerate her. After all, it put Cailin squarely in the lead, which would be a very dangerous move for her to make. A thought that came to me, though, is that Firefoot very deliberately voted for Cailin, hoping to get her lynched off, and so have an "innocent" status for the rest of the game. A very unlikely possibility, but one that occurred to me... On whole, I'd say that Firefoot is innocent.

Where Firefoot's vote for Cailin can be construed to look suspicious, I suppose that lmp's is even worse in the same way. The question, though, is whether or not lmp has the audacity to kill off a fellow Werewolf. I don't know him as well as I'd like, but I tend to think that, in spite of his bluster, he would have a hard time casually sentencing a fellow wolf, when there was no danger to himself, so easily. And so, I think him (for now, anyway) innocent.

Enca's vote for Anguirel brought the Anguirel bandwaggon back to live after a fairly long hiatus. This could be another Werewolf, trying to divert suspicion, but there isn't really any evidence to suggest that she wasn't doing just what she said she was doing: voting for a suspicious character. However, she's definitely someone to keep an eye on...

Mr. U was suspicious for frivolous reasons when I voted for him yesterday. They are much more concrete today, when we see that his vote is what brought Anguirel up to a tie with Cailin. If Encaitare is suspicious regarding the idea of a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, then Mister Underhill is doubly so. And there is still that "frivolous" matter of his keen intelligence and "playing dumb" act...

Fea is suspicious just because she is Fea. She could also have been a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, for her vote also brought Boromir up to the same amount of votes as Cailin. A risky maneuver that late in the Day, and not one guaranteed to save Cailin, for it was quite possible that Lhuna would not have made it in to vote in time, or that if she had, she would not have picked Cailin. On the other hand, Fea is known to have sacrificed others for her own sake before, and has said as much in her post (#143) this morning. Right up there with Mister Underhill on my suspicions list.

And then there's Lhuna. Her vote for Anguirel saved Cailin, and if the Werewolves hadn't been so unfortunate as to kill Eomer last night, Cailin would still be with us today- trying to kill someone. Overall, I don't think Lhuna as likely a Werewolf as Fea or Mister Underhill, on account of the timezone difference, but I am also hesitant to declare her innocent on the basis of that as well.

All in all, I am most suspicious of the late-voters. Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Since that horrible thing that is the world outside of Erbar Telemarth just made me very upset, I'm going to direct my anger somewhere far more productive than swearing a lot and kicking things; namely... here.

I figure I should let you all know that I will refute no suspicions against myself. If you have actual evidence that is leading you wrong (by wrong I mean "she's obviously a wolf because") I'll actually bother to correct you. But there is little point in my arguing about why you shouldn't suspect me, because I'd yell at you if you automatically assumed me innocent. That's as bad as automatically assuming that a wolf wouldn't vote off their fellows. It's sloppy, and sloppy is only good when it's planned sloppy.

You should all suspect me simply because there is no proof in my innocence. My word is obviously not good, as if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth and letting you think I was lying. It takes a lot less effort to double-bluff than it does to just lie. So my point is, since you should suspect me, I won't tell you not to. You should decide either to lynch me and regret it in the morning, or let me live and maybe hopefully not regret listening to what I say. I say maybe because I can't guarantee being at all right. I say that to let you know that I'm not Seer. I also say it with the sad realization that outright stating "I'm not Seer" means that I can't lie later to save someone I think is the Seer, unless of course I use the ruse "Why would I admit to it? Of course I'd lie!" In any case...

Those that I currently most suspect are those that voted for Cailìn. Following them, I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery.

I've got to run to class, but I'll check in yet again later.

[Mister Underhill]

I wish I could take credit for a crafty "playing dumb" game, but if I'm doing dumb stuff, it's unfortunately just dumb stuff. You've all been in werewolf-stricken villages before and have some past history to play off of. It works against me doubly -- not only am I in the dark about your different styles in a werewolf crisis, but I am an unknown quantity which naturally makes people suspicious of me.

It's maddening really -- it seems we have very little to go on except for the vote and the timing of the vote, and knowing as I do that my own vote and its timing were just this side of random, I have almost nothing to base suspicions upon. I almost wish I were a wolf, just so I could feel a little more in control of the fight.

I'm not sure why Lhuna has already cast a vote for me. "For reasons already stated above," she says, but she never mentions me at all in her previous post. Maybe she means reasons stated by other villagers?

[Encaitare]

It is good to know that Eomer's death was not in vain.

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Thank you for stating so well exactly what I was going to say. Anguirel was a safe vote, which is why many of us chose him. Certainly we regret it now, but you all must admit that at the time it made sense.

Since Mr. Underhill is now participating more, my suspicions of him have waned. Lhuna's very early vote is questionable... I know she has a big time difference, but she managed to vote later than that on Day 1. Her breaking of the three-way tie by voting for Ang could come off as suspicious... but she her "reasons stated above" may have been the reasons I offered. Only she can tell us that, though.

Those who voted for Cailin:
1. Mormegil
2. Firefoot
3. lmp

Mormegil voted for her when there were already two people with two votes each, and many people with one each. He may have thought that people would bandwagon onto those with two, Shelob and Boromir, and that people would ignore his vote for Cailin. Later, he may have thought, if she was found out, he could fall back on that vote to say that a wolf would not have voted for another wolf on Day 1.

Firefoot I am not sure about. Probably innocent, but it could have been a bold move.

LMP is most likely innocent. I'm reluctant to say definitely, even though I am really willing to rule him out right now, just because I don't want to set anything in stone. But I sincerely doubt that a wolf would have voted for Cailin and put her in the lead to be lynched.

Again, I shall be back tonight, and maybe later this afternoon as well.

[the guy who be short]

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.Reinforced my Firefoot innocence theory.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.Not quite sure what to make of this. One could easily be a wolf - Cailin could be voicing suspicion but not voting so she could later point this out. For some reason I'm not entirely sure of, I don't trust Shelob.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.Not sure what to make of this. Esty seems more or less innocent to me. Cailin seems to be saying that it's worrying that she doesn't want to lynch Esty - why is that? Is Esty a wolf?

The greatest evidence I have to go on points to Mr U and Shelob. Why Shelob? I know that the two people she accused, namely Ang and I, are innocents. I can't help but feel suspicion. It is now a question of which one of the two I shall be voting for.


I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery.I'm being as in-depth as my booklore allows! I have given lists, theories and pseudopsychoanalyses (:p). There's little I can offer in the way of strategy.

[mormegil]

Something we seem to have forgotten from yesterday that was never answered is Formendacil's reaction in this post (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422868&postcount=114). I just don't want to overlook people that we had some questions of yesterday.

About suspicions on me, I am glad that we are still thinking of everybody but we do need to take advantage of such a big break and I would be surprised if one from my earlier list

Encai
Feanor
Mister Underhill
Lhuna

is not a wolf. I'm reticent to state that the two wolves would be in there and doubt it greatly. As far as Feanor goes I think I'm probably the best one to know how Fea-wolf would operate and I've seen some characteristics I would expect but others that make her seem innocent in my eyes. She's by no means off the top of my list but I don't think I'll go for her today.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, having voted for me, is naturally somewhat suspicious in my mind. But I'm willing to let that pass as having been a random vote. However, he plays an uncanny game, and it is possible that he was a Werewolf looking for a random vote to throw away on Day 1.~Formendacil
Maybe I voted for you, because I thought you were a wolf? And you still may be. :rolleyes:

Don't know what to make of Fea. Seems geniune enough with her "gotta suspect me," but she's probably telling the truth. We gotta suspect her, because she's a wolf!

Lhuna is just playing way too dumb to be a wolf. Now there's a fine line between bold and dumb, and Lhuna's playing dumb. Casts the deciding vote for an innocent, then goes ahead and votes really really early...But I guess she's either a fool of an innocent, or a dumb wolf.

I got to suspect Firefoot. She seems to be getting off scotch free here. No one's really suspecting her, some are writing her off as an innocent, you just got to suspect someone who seems to be getting away so much. And I suspect anyone who tries to write people off as innocent (tgwbs? mormegil?)

Oh, and Firefoot, the reason I'm innocent, because if you notice I have not been wrong yet. I said that Anguirel and Eomer who both voted for me were innocent (and look they were). I also said that Fea and lmp are wolves and that still may be the case.

[Firefoot]

I've been in and out a lot more than I had thought today, hence my lack of posts. I'm glad to see that most of you are finding me innocent; hopefully that doesn't make me a target for the wolves tonight.

Right now my suspect list is comprised of six people, in roughly this order:

Formendacil
Shelob
Mr. Underhill
Lhuna
Fea
TGWBS

The last three (Lhuna, Fea, and TGWBS) are more neutral than suspicious, but I don't want to narrow my list too much so early in the game. I haven't written off any of the rest, but they don't seem as suspicious to me.

Formendacil and Shelob are still my choices for wolves; however, it seems odd that all three wolves would be in the first half of voters. Granted, there are RL commitments, but it still seems that the wolves would want to leave someone around in case things start to go horribly awry. But then, maybe that was part of the strategy. People who vote earlier tend to look less suspicious than those who vote later, depending somewhat on the outcome. But I think that one of them is probably a wolf - I'm not certain, but that's how it seems to me.

A Formendacil/Mr. Underhill combination would be interesting - it would mean that Formendacil is playing a bold game, having voted for him. Bluffing? Maybe. Before his vote for Mr. U, Formendacil didn't mention him at all as being suspicious - his list was lmp, Anguirel, and Morm - either innocent or in a very innocent light right now. Would Formen try to play this bold a game? At that point, only four other people had been voted for, one of them himself. Hm.

That's all I have time for right now, I'll likely expand/revise later.

Edit: cross-posting with Boromir and Morm.

[the guy who be short]

I would like to vote Shelob due to gut instinct and distrust of her.

I would like to vote Mr Underhill due to apparent evidence against him.

Shelob won't gather much support. Mr U will. Shelob will possibly incriminate me. Mr U won't.

Oh well.

++Shelob

And I suspect anyone who tries to write people off as innocent (tgwbs? mormegil?)Erm... you need to sort out innocents. Otherwise you may as well vote more or less at random.

I am wandering off to bed now. I would like to make a few more points.

Feanor has mentioned that we should not trust her. This would be a very Fea-wolf thing to do - ironically mock-incriminating herself. I still think she seems innocent.

Lhuna - quite a chance of also being a wolf. Odd behaviour.

Good night Men and Women.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I am trying to piece the evidence together, but nothing seams to fit.

Before my brain switches off for the night, I must make my choice. Underhill expresses my feelings as a new player so well that I hesitate to vote for him. I would like to believe him a fellow innocent, though I am not entirely sure. Two of my other suspects have voted extremely early today - Shelob for Lhuna and Lhuna for Underhill. I have no specific suspicions of Enca, who was the second to vote for Anguirel, a position that was not particularly critical.

Since I have concentrated on those four, as I explained above, I am not looking too closely at the others yet. I need more clues, and if I am allowed to survive, I intend to collect them. Here are my thoughts so far, for what they're worth:

mormegil is an uncertain candidate, with his suspicions that don't quite sound consistent to me.

Boromir's insults alone do not make him a candidate, but there are inconsistencies in his posts that make me pause.

Formendacil's suggestion that all of us not vote is in itself suspicious. His suspects are villagers whom I don't suspect, so he could be a wolf, but I don't have enough evidence yet.

Fea is unpredictable.

Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects.

tgwbs' arguments seem fairly sound to me; so far, I have no reason to suspect him.

LMP hasn't yet given me enough clues to his identity in his input so far.

I know myself to be innocent. That leaves 11, 2 of which are wolves. If we're lucky, the cursed villager won't be caught. So far I can't recognize the seer, but that's probably good. If I could, I'm sure the experienced wolves would as well!

[Boromir88]

Erm... you need to sort out innocents. Otherwise you may as well vote more or less at random.~tgwbs
I think that's ok for a day. Because, it does sort out who seems innocent, and who doesn't, and kind of narrows down the field. But, to say the way they voted the day prior makes them automatically innocent, is something that I say is wrong.

My time to vote has to come. It's Thursday, I have to go at 6 and serve on a panel for this Pro-school bond issue. :D I'm such a caring member of the community, it's a wonder why no one trusts me. :p

[Boromir88]

I am actually having the thought that our two wolves haven't voted yet, and seeing as Lhuna and Shelob won't be back (from my understanding right?) they're easy targets to go after and get people to follow them. I really must suspect those leading against Shelob and Lhuna.

[Boromir88]

Triple posting, because I must go and eat here, and nothing's changed since my last two posts. So, I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

Believe it or not, second day in a row, and no one's convinced me to vote otherwise. I was thinking of voting for Feanor, but her statements have (believe it or not) swayed me for today.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, I must risk incurring Boromir's suspicion, probably even that of others, but my gut feeling today again points me toward Shelob. I hesitate to vote a second day for the same person - and in tandem with the same person, tgwbs! - but there's something there that jars with me, though I can't put my finger on it to explain. Therefore:

++Shelob

G'night all!

[littlemanpoet]

Expect the worst and prepare for it. How hard would you kick yourselves if I'm right in my vague suspicion of LMP (agian... :eek:)? You've immediately discount him based on faulty evidence just because of the assumption that nobody would be that audacious. ... Just... please don't underestimate? Please?

Actually, I quite agree with this, except, of course, about Fea's suspicion of me. Which is why I'm not letting Fea off the hook either.

Now get to work, wench.

[Mister Underhill]

Now I'm in a pickle not of my own devising. By an accident of timezones and deadlines, it's very easy for me to vote late. Do I wait and gather more information? Do I vote now so that it doesn't look like I'm waiting for a chance to swing the vote?

I'm still suspicious of Feanor, who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday.

I'm not sure where the Shelob suspicion is coming from other than that she's playing an almost silent game.

I'd still like to hear one of the Cailin trio tell me what caused them to cast their vote as they did -- especially lmp, who put so much stress on posts 41-51 but has never really explained why as far as I can remember.

I'll hold my vote for a little while, I guess, to see if answers to these questions develop.

[littlemanpoet]

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

If LMP is not a wolf, therefore, then the third wolf had not voted yet, which means it would have to be Enca, Mr. U., Fea, or Lhuna; just to follow your reasoning one step further, Firefoot. By the way, I think you are wise not to assume the innocence of Morm or me, not because we are werewolves, but because the evidence is too limited to draw such strong conclusions.

[littlemanpoet]

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her. :pWell, yes, you do have a point there. ;)

[littlemanpoet]

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

The sheer guilelessness of your post leaves me leaning toward your innocence, Mr. U.. I do see, however, that your first day's errors (if that is what they were) have led immediately to some pretty astute thinking regarding Feanor.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm still suspicious of Feanor,who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday.
Hilariously enough, you've just reminded me that I forgot to actually tell you why I won't say that I'm innocent (which I am ;)) any more. It's because I was running late and only just made it to class on time when I realize "oh crap, I'm running late" and posted quick.

I'm not going to keep saying this because either you believed me the first time, or you didn't. Once you get an idea in your head, nothing I'm going to insistently say will turn you. It's a waste of time and energy to keep refuting, when all that will do is distract from what's important: actually catching the baddies.

And I agree with the trouble of timezones. My own late vote is enough for that. It looks like "oh, Fea held off her vote as a wolf to _____" filling in the blank with whatever you like. It's not even that. I'm a college student which means I'm up 'til all hours getting homework done. As I'm in EST, "all hours" includes those in which Days and Nights end. I simply take advantage of all of the discussion to try not to waste my vote when anything could happen to make me think "oh, this one's a wolf. It's obvious now. Time to vote!"

X's and O's, and off to homework. Even though it's still early.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Another thought:

So Cailin would have died with Boromir? I thought Ang would have... That's not cool. I wanted Boromir to die, but I wasn't expecting Cai to. Heck, I still want to off Boromir. It's just one of those things...

[Formendacil]

Something we seem to have forgotten from yesterday that was never answered is Formendacil's reaction in this post (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422868&postcount=114). I just don't want to overlook people that we had some questions of yesterday.

It was Day 1. Everyone was, to quote the famous saying: "innocent until proven guilty". Personally, I found there to be lack of substance behind Boromir's vote for me. True, ALL votes that day were random, but saying that he would vote for me just because I object to LMP's persona was just as bad as me suggesting I vote for LMP for that reason in the first place.

In retrospect, I'll admit I might have overreacted a little- although some other people's overreactions (not going to name names here...) to my overreaction were just as bad.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I know I've contributed little today except to rag on you all to stop saying "s/he's definately innocenct, s/he's definately guilty", and I'm sorry to say that it's not going to get any better right now.

I've got a load of wenching to do (aka: several hours of psych homework, 100 pages of reading for core, a one hour radio show to go to, a paper to write, my wife to murder, and Guilder to frame for it), so I'm going to vote now and be done for toDay.

++LMP

Because I'm suspicious of all that voted for Cailìn, I was already suspicious of him, and as he voted for Cailìn, surely you'll agree that my logic should fit together well.

Wish me luck on my Psych paper... I need it... more than you can imagine.

My parting words for the night: there's no such thing as being too careful. Don't drop suspicion for any reason besides "s/he's dead and we know for sure because of it." Also, keep an eye on Esty. She's my random accusation for the evening. I like to see bloodlust! And she's just not showing much. :)

[mormegil]

Unfortunately I haven't had much time today so I haven't been able to read since I last posted. Anyway I will vote today perhaps a bit random, perhaps not as random. Anyway to clear the air about her and I'm not 100% convinced of her yet

++Feanor

[Firefoot]

Originally posted by Esty:
Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects. I'm not defending Shelob. She's one of my top suspects.

I'm going to try and make some cases against my top suspects, both to clear my own thoughts and to see if that gets anywhere...

Formendacil: He starts out proposing two main theories: either a bandwagon because that would be a true village majority, or an everybody abstain from voting. Both of these strategies would benefit the wolves because there wouldn't be a good voting record to go off of and the wolves could easily hide. When it gets time to vote, he picks out three people he considers suspicious, Morm and Ang for fairly logical reasons, and LMP because of his occupation. But when he votes he doesn't seem to be considering any of these players, voting instead for Mr. U., who he has never mentioned and doesn't even seem to be garnering much village suspicion. Perhaps he cast suspicion on innocents, then voted for a fellow wolf in an underhanded, sly sort of way that doesn't really put attention on his fellow wolf? He is also "deeply insulted" by the vote for him. Wolves do tend to overreact a little more than ordinary villagers. His analysis post on Day 2 does seem fairly logical - that's good right? Villagers are supposed to be reasonable and logical. He could be hiding, though; he didn't bring much new to the table. I'm not extremely convinced of the Formen/Mr. U. alliance, though - Formen seems to be persuing him pretty vehemently today.

Shelob: She spends a good bit of energy being annoyed with the two votes against her because she hadn't said anything. Too defensive? She spends a lot of space discussing wolvish strategy, then follows it up by saying the wolves very likely won't lynch her. Because she is a wolf? Talking about wolvish strategy - and then not following it? Then she pulls a Fea and suggests we lynch her today. She moves me up on her suspicion list, and I'm still not sure I understand her logic after reading it several times - I think because she doesn't want the wolves to be able to double-bluff their way through the game. Yet didn't she just suggest we lynch her? Then she reiterates her point that the wolves won't kill her that night. I don't think much can be drawn from her vote of Lhuna, as she was rushed. But still...

Lhuna: She is very vague in her first post, briefly mentioning suspicions of several people but nothing very solid. She is forced to break the three-way tie; she says she sees no reason to vote for Cailin, and that Boromir is almost too suspcious to be a wolf. So she votes for Ang, claiming no responsibility over the outcome. Day 2, she votes for Mr. U., for "reasons stated above" - but she's never mentioned Mr. U. before at all. Hm...

I'd like to do a couple more, but these take time, y'know... And, in case I didn't make this clear, I'm not convinced about any of these people, Lhuna least of all. I'm just building cases for how they might be werewolves and why I might vote the way I do. My next subjects were going to be Esty, TGWBS, and Encai - and I'm nearly convinced of the innocence of the first and last.

And I believe the current voting standings are

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

[Encaitare]

I liked TGWBS's idea of reassessing my opinions from yesterDay, so here goes. Prepare for me to question nearly everyone in one way or another.

Shelob - Silent for most of the day, but as we share a similar predicament, I understand her plight. No suspicion at present.

Her vote seems somewhat groundless. Not saying that Lhuna is innocent, but Shelob does not back up her choice. Also, she's way too quiet. I know I've been quiet with my 2 posts a Day, but I don't see much substance to her posts. I think that if she were a gifted, she would work a little harder. She may get my vote toDay.

the guy who be short - His immediate assertion that he is not a wolf seems a bit iffy to me -- but then again, would a wolf make that kind of slip? It could have been an honest statement, or a wolf's careless mistake. I would credit TGWBS as being too clever to make slips like that, but then again, nobody's perfect.

Nothing he has said toDay makes me feel overly suspicious, so I'm going to leave him alone for now.

Boromir88 - seems very irreverent about the whole thing. Plus, he's rather rude, but that's in character. The whole attitude could be a bold bluff.

He cannot claim to be a "known innocent," although Firefoot addressed that point already. :)

Lhunardawen - Nothing to go on, really.

Like I said before, I don't like her extremely early vote. I know we all live in different time zones, and Fea and I have gotten some attention for consistently voting late in the Day, since that is also due to where we live. But as I also said before, Lhuna managed to vote later yesterDay. Hrmm...

Feanor of the Peredhil - I'd like to know why she wants me lynched. Could just be that she, out of her silly sense of humor, would find it amusing. She claims to have found "either two known innocent, or two known wolves". For such an outright statement, I doubt she's the Seer. But I have to wonder what she thinks she knows. Perhaps these two are LMP and B88, whom she later said she suspects.

She offers good, sound advice... although the wolves could take advantage of her assertion that wolves will be bold, especially in a game such as this. The wolves might then keep a very low profile and throw everyone off... maybe that's what Fea hopes will happen? Despite how she says we should suspect her, I really don't at the moment, though.

Formendacil - was "deeply insulted" by an accusation. Could just be the traditional first-day response to an accusation, could be a little more defensive. Yet he voted for Mr. Underhill, and although I don't think I'll do the same, I agree with his reasoning.

I feel like I don't have much to go on from him today. He sticks with his initial opinion, which could mean several things.

Estelyn Telcontar - I'm used to seeing Esty taking charge and getting things done. As a new player, I can understand how she's on the quiet side... but even so, I'd like to hear more from her.

She's still maintaining a low profile, although she has now decided more firmly whom to target: those who voted for Anguirel. Even though I am on that list, I'm glad to see that she's not still in newbie mode.

Mister Underhill - Formendacil mentioned before that he is very intelligent and seems to be "playing dumb". Could be lupine behavior.

Like with Esty, it's good to see that he's being more active. I am still a little suspicious of him, though. I shall have to see what the outcome of toDay's lynching is before I can form a stronger opinion on him.

Mormegil, Firefoot, and LMP have been addressed in my previous post (168), and I am sticking to those opinions of them for now.

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

[littlemanpoet]

I'm looking back over these supposed magic #41-51 posts, trying to see what other such as lmp "saw" in Cailin's posts that gave him away, and I'm seeing nothing. Can someone help me out here? How did you guys zero in on Cailin? Or is at least one of you running a double-bluff and "knew" it was Cailin because, well, you really knew it was Cailin?

I tried to reply to this post earlier but my dial-up went "blip". I'll try again.

And Esty, whether it is an asset we have fought wolves before, remains still to be seen. Our wolves also likely have past experience and can consequently more or less anticipate the reactions of the village. Besides, we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern.;)

The second sentence got me thinking about how the werewolves can PM each other all Day as well as Night. In fact, it had the feel of being spoken from experience. The third sentence seemed mighty suspicious, and the wink just sat wrong with me. In the second sentence the possessive is used in reference to wolves, as if she identified with them. It seemed like an overconfident slip, which was why I wasn't sure that I wasn't reading too much into it; when Morm voted for her, that strengthened my choice.

These are dark days, dark days indeed - and as long as there are these wolves around, there will no doubt be suspicion and doubt. Yet we must work together. Our enemies delight in the division of their enemies.

This one could be said from either a werewolf or innocent perspective, so I was watching Firefoot closely. Her vote for Cailin alleviated some of my suspicion directed toward her.

It's late, and I've been busy, so I have to see how the votes are going and can only scan the discussion from here on, for I'm up at 5 tomorrow. More's the pity.

[Formendacil]

I'm still a bit torn between Fea and Mister Underhill as the most likely suspects. I won't have time to vote later (gong farmer duties, y'know), so I have to make my decision now.

I'll stick it out, and go with ++ Mister Underhill.

Eru granting, this will go better than my "sticking it out" in my last village... :rolleyes:

[Firefoot]

++Shelob

I'm torn between her and Formen, but when it comes right down to it I guess she seems more suspicious. Other than that, I've already stated my arguments against her.

Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 3 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

[Mister Underhill]

Yesterday turned out to be the ultimately bad day for me to start up a game of werewolf. I got switched to a new project, which meant breaking down my computer and moving it to another desk, getting situated -- suffice to say, that's why I was less involved yesterday, and why I'm able to be more in the game today.

Good answer, lmp. It does seem as though C's hand was overplayed by that post a little, now that you point it out.

I can see why some are leaning towards Shelob a little now too. If she's a wolf, it's kind of a lame game to play silently. I hate to vote someone out based on the fact that I don't know anything about them.

Unfortunately, I'm still a little pressed today, and this is probably my last chance to get online before the deadline.

Form's been hounding me, but even though I know I'm innocent, I think he's just misguided and not a wolf.

Based on my own suspicions, and the logic of other players who my instincts tell me are innocent, I gotta go:

+ + Feanor

...even though a vote for Shelob could go a long way towards saving my own butt. Hopefully this will show I'm in earnest and not a wolf, even if I've chosen unwisely.

[littlemanpoet]

I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.

[Encaitare]

I am sticking with my vote for

++ SHELOB

[mormegil]

Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

All votes are in and I'm not sad about Shelob dying. I'm convinced that she's not gifted and may be a wolf. I think it more likely that she's an innocent but that's all. There could be a chance that she is a wolf and that would be great but she asked us to kill her anyway so that's okay. I, of course, would like to get rid of the Fea enigma one way or another but that will have to wait.

About thinking some people are innocent I think TGWBS is correct, it's helpful to have some positive idea of who is likely innocent. It narrows the field substantially and while I don't think we should say 100% that somebody is innocent we can have a strong belief that they are.

And I must say that I am very pleased to see how spread out the votes still are. Encai had to break a tie tonight which could be telling based on the outcome.

[the phantom]

Day-ending post coming soon...

[the phantom]

"Well, now that we know that Cailin was a wolf, it's obvious that morm, Firefoot, and lmp aren't wolves," stated one villager.

"We don't know that!" objected another villager. "One of them could very well be a wolf trying to look innocent."

"As a matter of fact, two of them could be wolves," pointed out a third villager.

"Or maybe even all three of them!" added a rather stupid villager.

"Why are you all assuming Cailin is a wolf, anyway?" asked a clueless villager.

"Because the phantom said so," answered a very wise villager who knew that particular answer took care of about every question in the world.

"Okay, so who are we going to kill today?" questioned a villager who liked to get things done and over with.

"We still need to decide," answered several unsure villagers.

"Shelob!" answered several villagers who didn't want to see the phantom's narrative drag on any longer.

The villagers decided to use Anguirel's sword for the execution. Shelob, the beggar, was tied face down to a table to await her death. Because everyone knew there was a chance they were wrong and Shelob was innocent, no one particularly wanted to step forward and be the executioner. So the villagers gathered in a circle around another table and spun a bottle to determine who would get to lop off Shelob's head.

littlemanpoet gave the bottle a good twirl. After several seconds it came to a stop.

"Well- it's pointing to you, Enca," said Fea.

"Me! No way- it is so pointing to you, Fea!"

"What are you talking about? The end is pointed right at you!" returned Fea while giving Enca's skirt a sly tug that made her lean closer in front of the bottle.

"I think it was pointing to Fea," whispered Esty to mormegil.

"Me too," added Lhuna.

"Hey Fea- Esty and Lhuna think it was pointing to you!" exclaimed mormegil.

"Shut up, morm!" snapped Fea.

"Hey, don't kill the messenger!" countered mormegil.

"That's probably what he'll say if we try to lynch him," muttered the guy who be short.

"This is the most annoying village I've ever been in!" shouted the ever insulting Boromir88.

Suddenly there was a loud THUNK!!

The villagers turned towards Shelob in time to see her head roll off the table and onto the floor (then out of the door, through the garden, and under a bush, and was then nothing but moosh).

littlemanpoet released his hand from the sword that was embedded in the table and walked off towards his quarters. "Sorry guys, but you were taking way too long. I have to get up early tomorrow to brew some more ale. G'night."

After lmp was gone, Firefoot spoke up and asked, "Well, how do we tell if she was a wolf? Do wolves change after their heads are off?"

"Probably not," answered Mister Underhill, "but it's quite obvious she isn't, or wasn't, a wolf."

"Why is that?" everyone asked.

"Because we wouldn't have been able to keep a wolf tied to a table for ten minutes while we decided who would kill it."

Living-

mormegil (messenger)
the guy who be short (dwarf)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
Lhunardawen (healer)
littlemanpoet (lecherous innkeeper/bartender)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Formendacil (gong farmer)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling wolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)


Score: Villagers- 9, Werewolves- 2

It is now night. Only the great and mighty Phantom may post.

Wolves, Seer, Ranger- I need your picks by 12:30 AM EST.

[the phantom]

After spending the day at the orc-camp, Captain Mortakh had made his way back to Bald Hill to receive an update from Sauron and carry out any orders he might have.

"How did things go during the day, Lord Sauron?"

"Oh, I think things have settled down again. There was quite a bit of action the night before- we lost a wolf you know, but I'm not too concerned. The village only had one Eomer. I doubt anyone else will give us that much trouble. Yesterday, even provided with a wolf, the villagers were unable to make heads or tails out of anything. As a matter of fact, there didn't seem to be as much analysis and theorizing yesterday as there was on the first day. After living through so many wolf attacks, I think despair is finally catching up with them. I'm hoping they will stay just as quiet tomorrow. Their silence will be the death of them. Mwu ha ha ha!!"

Mortakh laughed with him. Mortakh had served under Sauron for many years, and he liked going on Werewolf missions with him more than anything. There were times at Angband and in the castle on the River Sirion that Sauron was cruel even to his own minions, but when he was "Werewolfing", he was almost friendly- though still evil to the core.

"How goes the kill tonight, master?"

"The wolves are preparing to make their kill as we speak. Just wait...."

[the phantom]

After a time of silence, Mortakh spoke again. "Master Sauron, earlier you said the village only had one Eomer."

"Yes, I did. What of it?" replied Sauron without looking at the orc.

"Well, m'lord, last night not long before dawn Ufdreg and his patrol went down by that clearing where that Hunter fought our wolves. He said he heard the fighting and went to check it out, and when he reached the clearing the Hunter and wolf had just been killed and the other two wolves were standing there. And that's when he says some sort of warrior type came charging into the clearing and chased the wolves off."

"A warrior?" questioned Sauron, who was now looking Mortakh in the eye.

"Yes, m'lord. Ufdreg said that the man was wearing a black cloak and carrying an elvish sword. After he chased the wolves off, Ufdreg says he did some chanting over the Hunter's body and then left. And when Ufdreg ran up to try and pinch the Hunter's weapons and armor, he said it hurt him to get close and that he just couldn't get to the Hunter, like there was some sort of invisible force-field keeping him from disturbing or dishonoring the dead Hunter's body."

"A Ranger!" exclaimed Sauron, rising from his throne. "So- Erbar Telamarth has a Ranger, does it? Well- not for long! Now that I know he's there, I will find him!"

Mortakh backed down towards the bottom of the hill to allow Sauron to work without distraction.

[the phantom]

It was one hour before dawn. The two wolves crouched behind a house, awaiting directions from Sauron. They had been there for two hours. Just before the two were about to enter the house and make their kill, Sauron's dark thought reached them and instructed them to wait, and so they waited.

At that moment, a cold wind rushed in from the northwest and swirled around the two wolves. The icy breath of air held words from Sauron, and the wolves understood every word.

Quickly and silently, the wolves sprinted away to the north of the village, turned to the west, and then turned again and approached Erbar Telamarth from the northwest. On the western end of the village there was a small hut that stood apart from the other houses. It was overlooked from the north by a small knoll. As they neared the knoll, they slowed their pace and stealthily crawled, foot by foot, towards the top.

As the wolves breasted the hill and looked down upon the hut, they saw exactly what Sauron said they would see- a man in a black cloak sitting with his back to them. It was the Ranger. He was guarding the occupant of the hut.

The wolves smiled at each other. They thought- He expects an attack upon the person inside the hut, and is prepared to stop such an attack, but he is not prepared for us to mount a surprise assault on him.

The wolves charged down the knoll and jumped at the Ranger with their jaws open and hands outstretched. The Ranger barely had time to gain his feet before he was struck by the pair. They landed directly on top of him, slamming his body into the ground. One wolf wrenched the Ranger's sword from his hand- so violently that it pulled the Ranger's arm out of its socket. At the same time, the other Werewolf slashed the Ranger's face with his scythe-like claws.

With his good arm, the Ranger pulled out a knife and drove it into the shoulder of the wolf that was slashing him, but the other wolf closed his jaws on the Ranger's wrist to stop him from striking again. While the Ranger's wrist was being held, the other wolf dug his claws into the Ranger's neck and squeezed with all of his animal strength.

After a short time, the Ranger stopped struggling. He was dead.

The wolves howled out their victory, waking all the villagers from their sleep.

On his throne upon Bald Hill, Sauron laughed with delight.

[the phantom]

One by one, the villagers filed into the inn's bar, their facial expressions nearly dripping fear and apprehension. Everyone had heard the storm of howls just before the dawn, and knew that the wolves had won a victory during the night.

"Wait a minute- there's no one missing," observed Lhuna as she looked around the room.

"Yes there is," said Fea.

"Who?"

"Haven't you noticed that there is no one at the bar?" asked Fea.

"Sure there is! Formendacil, Underhill, and-"

"I mean behind the bar, Lhuna!"

The room fell silent.

Finally, Esty asked, "Why would the wolves make such a ruckus about killing a lecherous innkeeper?"

"Well," said mormegil, "Does anyone actually know he was guilty of lechery? It always seemed to me that he was more bark than bite. Perhaps it was an act to hide something else."

"I suppose there could be some truth to that," said Fea. "For all the time I worked for him, he was quite a beast, verbally anyway, but now that I think of it I can't recall him actually behaving in such a way. Though he talked about it all the time, I don't recall that he ever brought a woman to his quarters for the night. Maybe he was hiding something."

"Well then," piped up the guy who be short, "Let's have a look in his room."

In littlemanpoet's room, the villagers found several chests full of weapons. One of the chests had runes written on the top.

"These runes give his true name," said Mister Underhill. "They also declare him to be a Ranger from the forest of Brethil."

Living-

mormegil (messenger)
the guy who be short (dwarf)
Encaitare (jewel smith)
Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
Lhunardawen (healer)
Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
Formendacil (gong farmer)
Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)


Dead-

the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling wolves on Night 2)
Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by wolves on Night 3)


The following players have informed me that their participation will be somewhat under their usual today- Lhunardawen.

[mormegil]

Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

This is yesterday's voting.

I feared that LMP, Firefoot or I would die this night at the paws of the wolves. I am sadden that LMP is gone and we lost such a valueable asset to the village, he was a good man whatever his facade contradicted. Now LMP had few enemies, though they ones he had are easily identifiable--Formendacil and Fea.

Now there are two reasons why the wolves would want to kill LMP as I see it.

1) They believed him to be the seer which would mean his suspions were accurate. He voted Cailin on DAY 1 which in my eyes made him innocent, did he vote for a wolf on DAY 2? It's a strong possibility and one that I feel should be investigated more thouroughly.

2) They knew that many people believed him innocent and found his death a way to spread confusion and discord.

As the wolves main foe is the seer I find it likely that they are trying to kill him/her and thought that LMP was the seer. This would strongly implicate Fea and somewhat exonerate Mister Underhill.

Out of the people who voted for Shelob I find it telling that 2 days now Encai has made fairly critical votes for innocents. Also Esty and TGWBS are under suspicion and seem to follow each other on voting. Now Firefoot is in there and I'm still fairly convinced of her innocence. My list of suspicion is as follows:

1. Feanor
2. Formendacil and Encai
4. TGWBS
5. Esty and Boromir
7. Lhuna and Mister Underhill
9. Firefoot
10. Mormegil

Now we are not at a critical stage yet but we are on the fast track to getting there. We need the Seer to shine for us and come through with at least one wolf before he/she dies and the rate of gifted deaths has me a bit worried but that's my disposition anyway. The seer knows what is best and when s/he should come out. But with one more wolf identified it's much easier to track the third I would think. I thnk we need to spread out the votes again but lynch Fea in the end.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Alas! Two more innocent villagers are gone from our midst within this last day and night! My eyes are red with the tears I have shed, my heart is heavy and my head too weary to comprehend the horror of it. And yet think we must, attempting to prevent more of the same. Sixteen of us there were before the deaths began; now there are ten, and two of them still wolves. One of the six deceased was a wolf whom we have vanquished, yet who is to say that there may not be a cursed villager who joins them to increase their numbers again?

We must choose wisely and debate with utmost care today. I for my part will do my very best to contribute, for I must atone for Shelob's death, of which I was, unwittingly, a cause. And I wish to avenge LMP's death, for we are now shown the true nobility he hid behind his careless ways. Who could have known that his concern for our comfort and rest was genuine, that all this time he was tirelessly protecting us in secret?

I will dry my eyes and return for speech with you all.

[the guy who be short]

Shelob innocent. Oh well.

I realise this incriminates me a little. I will do my best to analyze the situation, but I must go soon. Upon my return I shall make lots of interesting little lists and suggestions and such that will most likely lead us even more astray. Sigh.

As for now, I wish only to defend my innocence, and at the same time, though she may not will it, for it will look even more like we are working together, that of Esty's.

On day one, we did not vote together for the same reasons. I suggested voting for Shelob due to her silence before Esty voted. Esty voted at random.

Yesterday, though it may look like we were working together, many villagers seemed to reach the conclusion of Shelob's guilt. Though some of these may have been wolves, I recall that Esty and I were the first to vote for her (I think).

Now, as we had already voted for her yesterday, this would be an utterly stupid thing for wolves to do. It would be too incriminating. A wolf wouldn't play a lead part in killing an innocent, it just wouldn't be clever. We were the two that called for a Shelynching.

There is always the possibility that wolves would do something that obvious as a double bluff - it being far too incriminating so that nobody would suspect them. If this were the case, then there is absolutely no chance that both wolves would do this. Therefore, only one out of Esty and I would be a wolf. I am not a wolf. However, I do not buy into this theory, and am tempted to trust Esty almost as much as I do mormegil and Firefoot.

Please also note that I was correct in seeing LMP's death. I'm pretty sure that either morm of Firefoot will go next - so if either of you are the seer, make sure to drop a few hints, will you?

That is all. Coming soon: analyses of voting patterns, why the wolves killed LMP, who I believe innocent and guilty.

[Boromir88]

And still no one bothers listens to me, I'll have you know I still have never been wrong! Hmm, Anguirel, I said was innocent, Eomer I said was innocent, Shelob I said was innocent and that we should look at the ones trying lynch her. But no, no one ever listens to me, though I've never been wrong.

More later, I must get going, I just wanted everyone to know that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

At the moment, I can't avoid being impressed with the wolves' strategy. I'm not sure what the entirety of it is just yet, but I'm impressed. The kill of LMP was... I'd say unexpected, but if I'd been paying more attention (blast my obscenely large amounts of [wenching] homework) to the game, I'd probably have expected it. Who garnered a large number of votes already yesterday? Me. Who kept pointing her sadly inaccurate finger at LMP? Also me. Who looks most guilty because now he's dead? I'll let you fill in that answer. Whose potential lynching would seriously aid the wolves? Me...

I have a class in a few minutes, but it's not at all long. I'll be back in little more than an hour, if that. That's when you'll see me defend my actions, defend some other people's, and try to figure out who should die next. If you're wondering, the answer remains "not me." See y'all shortly.

[the guy who be short]

DAY ONE:
Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

DAY TWO:
Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

Now then, before I say anything at all of importance, I do not think LMP was killed under suspicion of Seerism.
The innocence of morm, Firefoot and LMP was agreed upon by the village (excluding Fea) on Day two. Of these, it was agreed that LMP was the most innocent looking due to the position of his vote. This is why he is dead.
Now, perhaps there is some other reason - perhaps there were hints of Seerism in his posts - but I'll warrant that was the main reason. Alternatively, the wolves could have chosen the one out of those three who looked most Seery. I will have to anaylse LMPs posts later.

Now, morm and Firefoot are innocent. Esty, I have explained, looks innocent to me at the moment, though this could change. I am innocent, though I don't expect anybody to take my word for it. Excluding these four, this is what I find:

Enca sealed Shelob's fate - the other three Shelob-voters being innocent. This could have been an attempt to save Fea's life. Enca-Fea as wolves?

Fea voted for LMP despite his looking extremely innocent.

Mr U voted Feanor at a reasonably important time. I am tempted to forgive him for Day one and trust him (sort of) now. If one is a wolf, the other is not.

Lhuna voted for Mr U early when it seemed likely he would be dying Yesterday. This could be a wolf going with the flow to hide herself. I see a potential Mr U - Lhuna wolvish alliance here.

So:

Wolves:
Feanor
Encaitare

Potential Wolves:
Mr U
Lhuna

Unsure:
Formendacil
Boromir

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

This is all liable to change as I mull things over.

Coming soon: Analyses of Innocent posts.

[Firefoot]

Oh, dear, two innocents dead, and our ranger one of them. Next to losing the Seer, that's the worst that could happen - hopefully our seer will have dreamed of a wolf last night, but there's nothing the rest of us can do for that.

I highly doubt that both TGWBS and Esty are wolves. Possibly one of them, but not both. I've not yet found anything in any of their posts to suggest wolvery, but I'll probably be doing a closer analysis today.

Concerning Fea (it always comes back to her, doesn't it?), LMP's death could be one of two things: a bold bluff or a set-up. I have no doubt that Fea isn't capable of the bluff, and, of course, if they thought LMP was the Seer then it wouldn't be such a hard decision. For me, Fea is just sort of hanging between innocent and guilty - I can't make heads or tails of her.

In general, I'm not overly surprised at LMP's death - I figured it would be me, Morm, or him. Just because of that, I'm not sure much information can be taken from his death. What may need to be looked at is why him and not us - who he was accusing and how that might cause wolves to kill him over us.

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

Edit - cross-posting with TGWBS and Fea.

[mormegil]

And still no one bothers listens to me, I'll have you know I still have never been wrong! Hmm, Anguirel, I said was innocent, Eomer I said was innocent, Shelob I said was innocent and that we should look at the ones trying lynch her. But no, no one ever listens to me, though I've never been wrong.

More later, I must get going, I just wanted everyone to know that.

So have I Boro but at least I voted for a known wolf. Plus it's not always good to be correct it might show that you know too much.

Now I've been going over things a bit and a couple of things have popped out at me, one I will talk about the other I will wait. Feanor is quite possibly innocent, I know this is a sudden move from what I said earlier but I've been thinking and will explain why. The wolves know that there are many of us who know her well and would know some of the unpredictable nature of her behavior. Now a set up for Fea isn't anything that wolf-Fea couldn't handle and the wolves know it. So my proposal is that they set her up making us think it is an attempt to pull off a double bluff so we lynch her...what would that be a triple bluff or the undefined bait and switch bluff that LMP spoke of?

Anyway my point is while Fea has moved down a bit on my list somebody else has moved up a bit. I do not want to explain why yet because I want to continue to analyze his/her behavior but I went back and looked over some post and a couple of things jumped out at me. Now I will wait and see what s/he has to say.

Now it is likely that either Firefoot or I die tonight but there is also the possibility that having said this we won't. What a great way for the wolves to again spread confusion among us by keeping us alive and everybody asking "why aren't they dead yet". We've seen it before.

[the guy who be short]

The thing with the Fea situation is that it's impossible to know whether wolves set Fea up, whether Fea was being blindingly obvious killing LMP knowing we wouldn't suspect her, or whether wolves set her up knowing we'd think she were bluffing, or whether Fea knew we would think it were a double bluff and actually killed LMP... etc. etc. I can't see it a being anything less complex than a double bluff.

So Fea basically remains Mystery Girl.

I'm more concerned about Formy and Boromir, the two people I haven't labelled yet. I shall look over their posts and should come to a decision.

Currently, I'm undecided between voting Mystery Girl and Lhuna/Mr U.

Anaylses of innocent posts may be delayed or non-existant as they have moved down in my list of priorities. I want to figure out Form and Boro.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hello doves, I'm back. Expect a lengthy post from me in a while, as I've finally got some time to sit and analyze.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

*hums "I'm making a list, checking it twice..."

While I'm trying to gather evidence, I'd like to add what thoughts have occurred to me so far. Now, I don't know whether phantom's post indicates that the ranger was killed by primary wolf choice or while defending another villager. It would be interesting to know who it was, if the latter is true. Should it have been either the seer or the cursed villager, LMP will have saved us from a worse fate. So far, I'm not seeing evidence of the seer's identity, but we do need to lynch a wolf very soon, or the chances of them adding another are great.

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones. Boro88 voted for Formy both days, and Formy voted for Underhill both days. I'm not sure what that is telling us - does one of them have more knowledge than the rest of us?


[Arnold Schwarzenegger voice:] "I'll be back!" [/voice]

[the guy who be short]

Righto. I have emerged from my underground caverns once more.

I've just gone through everything Formen and Boromir have said. I noticed:

1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence. However, he also claims wolves would be idiots to stay quiet - whilst being loud himself. Interesting, Eomer voted for Boro before being taken in the night. At the moment, I consider him neutral though.

Potential Wolf Pairs:
Mr U - Lhuna
Feanor - Encaitare

Neutral:
Boromir

Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

Possibly coming soon: Analyses of Eomer's posts on Day 1. I want to know why he died - this was never looked into on Day 2, strangely.

[mormegil]

Esty the way it works is if the Ranger protects somebody that the wolves attack then nobody dies. Therefore the wolves went for LMP. But who else jumped on your parallel voting with TGWBS other than I? TGWBS pointed it out too but nobody else? Are you nervous and trying to hide something?

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones.

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

[the guy who be short]

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.The lady is half dwarf, meaning she too must go to sleep several hours before the rest of you, or else turn to stone. The fact that we vote at similar hours is not, then, much of an issue.

As for voting for the same people, we have only done it twice, and if you read our posts, have different thought processes that lead us to the same conclusions.

[mormegil]

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

If you are saying what I think you are going to say I may even lower you further on my suspect list.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Actually, I almost didn't vote for Shelob for the very reason that TGWBS had her at the top of his list. But I decided to vote for the person who topped my own suspect list, regardless of what others do or don't. I will do the same thing today. I'm still looking through past posts, analyzing for myself, though I am also comparing with what others post today, of course.

[the guy who be short]

I missed this in my skimming before, but Eomer openly declared himself as Hunter:
Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.So why did he choose to kill Cailin instead of Boromir? Cailin had already voted for him when Eomer voted, so it wasn't her vote. There must have been some reason he trusted Boromir.
That said, Boromir kept carefully neutral about the vote - claiming he believe Eomer innocent despite his vote. Would a wolf have snapped at the bait? In any case, this makes Boromir seem more innocent to me.

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.Casts suspicion on Firefoot. She's innocent.
Casts suspicion on Esty. Innocent.

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.

[Firefoot]

Let's have a look at what he was thinking:

He started out on Day 2 here:
Wolfy - Lhuna and Mr. U.
Neutral to guilty - Fea and Encai

He started leaning towards Mr. U.'s innocence as the Day went on.

His last words:I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.
It seems likely to me that one (maybe both) of the wolves would be on LMP's suspect or questioning list. That would be Esty, Formendacil, Mr. U., Encai, or Lhuna. If there were a wolf that wasn't on his list, I would be most inclined to suspect TGWBS, who I am extremely unsure about. He seems innocent, but I can't help but suspect him. I am currently inclined towards believing that killing LMP was a set up of Fea.

I would really like to hear more from Lhuna, which unfortunately probably won't happen before I go to sleep tonight. There just isn't enough to go off for her. I'd also like to hear more from Encai, as she is seeming more suspicious to me yet there's not a lot to back it up one way or the other.

[Encaitare]

The first thing I would like to address is the fact that people are taking note of the fact that I did break the tie between Fea and Shelob. However, don't look at the votes alone. In post 190, I as good as said that I would be voting for her:

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

When I said this, the voting situation was like this:

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

Think about it. If I had actually cast the vote at that time, would it be as big a deal? It has been suggested that Fea and I are the two remaining wolves. When I cast my vote, there was a tie between Shelob and Fea, and Mr. Underhill had two. If Fea and I were wolves together, I could have voted for Mr. U, thereby lynching both him and Shelob, and skipping over Fea.

I am now going to go through what has been said thus far and then post further thoughts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Right now I'm going back to my theory that one of the votes for Anguirel on the first day was cast by a wolf. I was wrong with my first suspect, Shelob. I am now looking very closely at Encai; she voted for both lynched innocents on both days. On the second day, she broke a tie, thereby saving Fea's neck. On the first day, her vote came when Cailín was leading, creating a bandwagon effect for Anguirel, and away from the one wolf we know of so far. This would make me suspect Fea as her ally, though I'm not sure of my reasoning yet.

(cross-posted with Firefoot and Encai...)

[the guy who be short]

Esty, I have already mentioned a potential Enca-Fea team in an earlier post.

However, I did not notice that Enca had previously stated she would be voting Shelob. This does make her seem less suspicious.

Lhuna and Fea, followed by Mr U and Enca, seem most suspicious to me at the moment. I will probably vote for one of the former, and am leaning towards Lhuna.

[Boromir88]

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.~TGWBS
That's quite possible. I admit I said the same thing on the regards of Shelob and Lhuna on the first day, but that's the way I always am. Quietness usually isn't something that wolves do, especially on Day 1. They like to get out there and manipulate early, then sort of ride along with the "loudmouths." I'm considering Lhuna as a possible wolf.

With that being said, I was strong against Feanor as a wolf yesterday, today I'm less sure, because of lmp's death. Either Fea is pulling a bold bluff, or the wolves are trying to set her up, I think it's the latter. The wolves knew that at the end of yesterday Fea was attracting suspicion, so they set her up at night with lmp's death and have an easy victim that they think people will go after the next day. So, Fea's not a wolf, atleast from this moment (it may change).

So, who's our other wolf? I'm still considering mormegil, though nothing big. Firefoot I'm pretty convinced is innocent, after voting for Cailin, and then as tgwbs shows Cailin accusing her.

Since I think Fea was set up lastnight I think anyone that tries to push for her lynching is somewhat suspicious. Unless if someone here can convince me that Fea is pulling a bluff and not being set up?

[Formendacil]

Okay, it seems that quite a few people find me suspicious. Fine then, I'm suspicious. I've been there before while being innocent, and I expect to be proven so again. That said, I would find it a courtesy to know WHY people seem to think me so lupine. For what its worth, my own voting has not resulted yet in any killing of an innocent- a fact that has so far been overlooked.

Anyway, leaving the topic of stinky old me alone, here are my thoughts on the others:

mormegil: Still a member of the Innocent Three from Day 1. Of the three, he's the most likely to have been playing a wolfy game, but the possibility of that seems about 1 in a hundred.

the guy who be short: Also seems fairly innocent. Not as "proven" innocent as the Innocent Three (I guess that should be the Innocent Two now), but fairly innocent. However, he did vote for Shelob two days in a row, and was a part of a successful drive for her removal on Day 2. Whether that constitutes Wolfishness, or just a bit of being stuck on the wrong track, is difficult to say.

Encaitare's vote yesterday sealed Shelobs' fate. Her vote on Day 1 resurrected the bandwaggon that saved Cailin. Both acts, taken in that light, look highly suspicious. On the other hand, the possibility of coincidental timing is there. Day 1's vote could be construed as voting for a seemingly dead bandwaggon. Day 2's vote can be said to be a painful tiebreaker- with tragic results. However, Encaitare's record still seems mighty suspicious.

Boromir88 has so far voted for me and only me. On Day 1 I found that insulting (as everyone undoubtedly remembers), and on Day 2 I found that suspicious. However, although I know that Boromir was voting for an innocent, there's no evidence I can present to prove it, and I can only say that he's gone off down the wrong track. Oddly enough, this makes me somewhat more sure of his innocence, since I did the same thing back in my last village. On the other hand, it could be the quieter partner of a Wolfish partnership casting a quiet, more ignored vote...

Firefoot: The other surviving member of the Innocent Three. Firefoot, by the timing of her Day 1 voting, seems to be the most definitely innocent person we have. However, innocent or not, she DID vote for Shelob yesterday, casting the third of four votes for that innocent, a vote that could have been the killling one in a slightly different situation. IF that were the case, then her casual near-killing of Cailin on Day 1 could only be taken as a very bold move to kill off a partner in hopes of getting "Innocent" status for the rest of the village's lifespan. If so, it worked, because in spite of these "Devil's Advocate" questionings, she still makes my list of Innocents.

Lhunardawen is known to live in a different timezone, but I would be wary of calling her innocent based on that alone. It is entirely possible for her to be playing that to her advantage. Her vote on Day 1 saved Cailin from immediate destruction, and her very early vote on Day 2, with the explanation of "busy other life" could be a ploy to hide under the radar for the rest of the day. It's a coin toss, in my opinion, as to which is the case: hampered by timezones, or playing the timezones.

Feanor of the Peredhil has been looking very suspicious of late. LMP suspected her, and now he's dead. She has done her best to cast suspicion on the Innocent Three. Her voting record has not been spotless. Her vote for Boromir on Day 1 was his third- which brought him up to Cailin's number of votes, and may have been a risky plot to save her life. Her vote for LMP on Day 2 is less suspect, unless she was a wolf trying to appear unsuspicious. The possibility of innocence is there, but it's weak...

Estelyn Telcontar is getting used to the game, it seems, and the indications are that she is an innocent- but her two days in a row vote for Shelob is somewhat suspicious. Her vote for Shelob yesterday was the second on the bandwaggon, and by that timing could be said to have been what got the bandwaggon rolling. All the same, she seems harmless...

Mister Underhill is my old foe, it would seem. I've voted for him twice now. The first time on random reasons, the second time on suspicion of Wolfishness. His Day 1 vote brought Anguirel up to an even score with the wolf Cailin, and certainly helped save her from the noose. However, my suspicion of him has slackened somewhat, based on his Day 2 record. He cast the second vote for Fea, and did so later in the voting, when suspicion towards her was building- a dangerous thing for him to have done if he was a wolf, in my opinion. On the other hand, Fea WASN'T killed yesterday, and both of them are still alive today, so it COULD have been a bluff...

To sum up, in order:

Wolves?:
Fea

Probably Wolves?:
Mister Underhill,
Encaitare

Relatively Neutral?
Lhunardawen,
Boromir,
Estelyn,
TGWBS,

Mostly Innocent:
Firefoot,
Mormegil

[the guy who be short]

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

[Boromir88]

Boromir88 has so far voted for me and only me. On Day 1 I found that insulting (as everyone undoubtedly remembers), and on Day 2 I found that suspicious. However, although I know that Boromir was voting for an innocent, there's no evidence I can present to prove it, and I can only say that he's gone off down the wrong track. Oddly enough, this makes me somewhat more sure of his innocence, since I did the same thing back in my last village. On the other hand, it could be the quieter partner of a Wolfish partnership casting a quiet, more ignored vote...~Formendacil
You're kind of on the right trail. It's true that I've been safe in my voting, and have voted for someone (ahem, you), because I was not confident in any of the people who were being called "wolves." (Even Cailin I admit, though I never said she wasn't a wolf, I just didn't think she was at that time).

Also, I'd like to point out another little thing when I voted. Votes were tied between me and Shelob on Day 1, if I was a wolf, I would have voted for Shelob, to save me. But, I did not think Shelob was a wolf (and oh she wasn't), so I didn't want to vote for her.

Same for yesterday, I did not think Shelob or Mr. Underhill were wolves, and Shelob wasn't, though Mr. U might be.

[mormegil]

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

1) There are times when it's not that I have a specific shred of evidence but rather a general feeling and I've found that these feelings have a good chance of being right. After his notorious reaction to Boromir's vote he seems to change according to what he thinks we want to see. Remember that the wolves have the ability to PM during the day so shifts in behavior can be suspicious that is what I found in Cailin in those post was an abrupt change in behavior.

2) Sorry but they will stay, because at times if you tip your hand too quickly the opportunity is gone. I am waiting out the day to see if suspicious behavior continues in one or two individuals and if it's cyrptic well that is my choice and hopefully it leads to good.

[Encaitare]

Going down the list...

TGWBS - Not really sure, but I'd like to respond to this:

Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence.

Huh? There be no Sauce in this village. Methinks Boro was confused or making a joke.

Boromir88 - I still suspect him based on that "known innocent" comment. A wolf trying too hard, perhaps?

Feanor of the Peredhil - The fact that LMP voted for her could be telling. She might be a wolf who decided to off the only one who suspected her enough to make that vote. Her vehemence about how the wolves would be bluffing left and right makes me wonder if she put the image of loudmouth wolves in our minds, and then quietly killed LMP, most contrarily to her hypotheses about wolvish behavior. *goes mad trying to make sense of this*

Formendacil - As I said yesterday, his voting is interesting. What he does today could be telling.

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

Alas, my sister needs to use the computer for a project, which means that I shall have to return later. I'm sorry this post is so brief.

[the guy who be short]

Morm:
There are times when it's not that I have a specific shred of evidence but rather a general feeling and I've found that these feelings have a good chance of being right.That's what I felt about Shelob... unfortunately, there are time constraints just at the moment, though I shall return later. Can you point to actual shifts Formen has made?

Also, though I believe you to be innocent, your crypticisms are most trying. Please do explain by the end of the Day, as you will most likely die in the Night.

[mormegil]

For those who believe that Firefoot and I are innocent my advice regarding the Fea-problem is to wait and see what she has to say in this alleged long post of hers. Let's wait and see what she has to say and analyze it from there. We are currently all talking ourselves in circles about her. One thing to be certain is that a Fea-wolf wouldn't shy away from accusing fellow wolves openly.

[Boromir88]

To clear up the Sauce thing once and for all, I wasn't making a joke, I honestly thought he was a player for some unknown reason. I think I was so excited to start this "experienced" Werewolf...thing, I just assumed Sauce was in it. And as far as my other suspicions those were jokes, I just thought it be fun to pick 3 random people label them as wolves and see how close I was :p .

With that being said I think I'll probably vote for Formendacil (what a surprise?) or Encaitare today.

And I think Feanor is being set up, that's basically what I'm thinking right now if you must know.

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

I'm sorry if that post aggravated you - I was just trying to get into the role playing spirit of things and have a bit of fun, especially as it was morning and I didn't yet have time to write an analyzing post. Those who know my writing from the "Entish Bow" RPG may recognize my tendency to facetiousness and to exaggeration. There's so much out of character exchange during the day - I'm way out of character now! - that I thought it would be enjoyable to recapture a bit of that. However, if all prefer to drop any role-playing, I shall bow to the majority.

[mormegil]

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

However, what's done is done, and I am still no closer to finding a victim
A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.

[Firefoot]

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me. He actually told us, though cryptically, that he was the hunter, or at least the ranger. "Beforehand" seems to point to the "wise" comments he'd just written himself (sadly, I'd interpreted them as "Hey, look for what the Seer wrote" and then played with the assumption that he was Seer before dropping the idea like a bad habit. I'd rather be assume I'm wrong than actually be wrong again.)

we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern. This statement makes me nervous. By "we" should could be saying that there is no exact art to wolvery, as illustrated by many games, or she could be telling us that the wolves are playing this by ear, without definate plans. With all day PMing, it's an absolute possibility. It makes it that much harder for us to track them, with them not having a strategy.

Now I'd like to address each of you [living ones] in turn:

Boromir88: So he consistently wanted me to die, but now he's pretty sure I was set up. I'm okay with this, though it makes me wonder. Why would he change his mind about me when I've yet to change my mind entirely about him? I'm still leaning toward "let's kill him just to be sure". His comment about Saucie still makes me wonder. That was just weird. I still don't like his agitation technique of coming up with random wolf-packs. That's something that I would do. I don't trust other people acting like me. I'm supposed to be the crazy one. When other people act crazy, I wonder why. Also, his most recent triad of me, Formy, and LMP contains two innocents that I'm aware of: me and LMP. Couldn't tell you on Formy, but it makes me think. Also, how he keeps saying "Look how often I'm right!" He hasn't always been right, he's been calling me a wolf for the whole game, up 'til now. It would be a classic wolf strategy to pull out of a campaign just in time to say "Why'd you guys lynch her? I told you I thought she was innocent!" and accompany it with several melodramatic tears and such.

Encaitare: I'm beginning to wonder if I'm actually part of a conspiracy I don't know about, so good is the evidence against us. She killed off Shelob, which I'm okay with because it means that I'm still here, but I can't for the life of me figure out why she did it, even though she explained. You see... we all know that I'm confusing as all heck, and the world would be a calmer, less confused, and less pretty place without me. We know this. To be honest, it would make your lives less difficult if I was dead, much though I don't want to die because that means that a wolf won't go in my place. And yet, Encai broke a double vote. Shelob and I would have both been gone, getting rid of an unknown threat and a really confusing one in one fell swoop. But Encai saved me. Is she trying to build a false bond? While I'm grateful that she saved me, I think I'd have been more comfortable with her innocence if she hadn't. It just brings to mind an event in the first village I ever lived in where a wolf attached himself to my innocent self. Also, her suspicion in Cailin. Anybody who even mentioned Cailin pre-Eomer-death is on my list. I didn't notice anything about Cailin until after she died, so people who did make me wonder if they already knew.

Esty: I wouldn't call her safe, as I know that the lady has a devilish sense of humor and I'd put little past her. On the other hand, my feelings toward her parallel those I attribute to TGWBS a little further on.

Firefoot: I do not think that Firefoot is a wolf. Though her posting style of individual analysis is ideal for hiding behind, as she doesn't have to account for anything she says spur-of-the-moment, I still do not feel anything that makes me nervous. Also, based on the strength of my LMP error, I'm duly considering dropping my suspicion of those who voted for Cailìn. Just because it's what I'd have done, doesn't mean that it's what was done. Now, the point that she is leaning toward a set up of me makes me less nervous than it does with some others. Just about all those that I perceive as innocent perceive me as guilty as sin, and I'll admit that there's reason for it. I screwed up big time. At least you know though, that if I was a wolf, you'd probably never even assume my guilt. :p

Formendacil: I've never played with him before. Upon asked how that makes me feel... I replied "slightly nervous". *silly grin* In any case, I'm pretty fond of his worry of Underhillo. However his original idea of mass-abstention brings to mind the ideas of random voting. Though he says that morm's initial idea for that would leave no clues behind, not voting at all would be even worse. Like I said... he makes me nervous.

Lhuna: her sparse posts filled to the brim with lack of depth (I swear, they're so shallow I can see my own reflection in them ;)) make me wonder. Yes, she's in another timezone, but I still wish she was posting more. Especially as I seem to remember her saying she's on break now.

Mister Underhill: is bothering me a really lot right now. He's been the subject of widespread and strong suspicion for several days by multiple people. On Day One Formendacil was after him. On Day Two, Formendacil, Lhuna, Morm, TGWBS, B88, Esty, and Firefoot were. ToDay, TGWBS, Formy, Morm. He deftly avoids flat out accusations, leaning more towards inconspicuous questions perhaps made to look like typical new-player confusion, but that cast shadows on the actions of other without ever actually saying that he thinks they are guilty. He also rarely states who he thinks is guilty. He mentions that Esty is, due to her amateurity, but that is not cause for belief in innocence at all. He vaguely defends the supposed "Innocent Three" (down to two, sadly), but without a lot of conviction. The fact that we are all aware of his intellect, and are seeing posts that skirt issues as neatly as the papers I write at 2:00 AM and hand in at 8:00 do, is making me wonder. Combining that with the sheer number of people that suspect him heavily, you can only conclude that it's not simply the wolves trying to cast suspicion. When at least seven people (myself included in that) think that somebody is really fishy, we need to take a closer look.

mormegil: Though he's part of that Innocent Three that I've been adamently trying to get you guys to not trust in, I'm starting to trust in it a little. But I'll get to that shortly. Apparently I can't trust in the insanity that works so well for me. It means that I actually had to start thinking logically. Just like the rest of us, morm had a 1/5 chance of becoming a wolf. Now what makes me nervous is that he did vote for Cailin. That's going back to my initital skepticism that a wolf would give up such a great opportunity to steal a place of Innocence. Especially his Day One statement going with his initial plan of random lynching: wolves will almost certainly help out their fellows. He's played with wolves before that have absolutely no qualms about getting each other killed. I know that he wouldn't overlook the possibility. However I'll note that he mentions the possibility of a LMP/Footie conspiracy, so I discount my earlier thoughts slightly because of it. But what bothers me more than all that is that he noticed Eomer's little note. Perhaps he is simply an incredibly bright innocent, or perhaps he knew where to look. Even better, perhaps he Saw it. Who knows? Certainly not me. I'm still trying to figure out if you guys know something about me that I don't. :D My point with this, which I think I accidentally lost track of, is that yes, morm has a decent chance of being a wolf, just like the rest of us. Yes, he knows things about wolvery based on past experience. Yes, he did two things that made me nervous. But I also think that if he was a wolf, he wouldn't have done those two things because he knows how I think in terms of wolvery, and he would surely understand that I'd notice those things because it's what I'd be doing. I also vaguely think that I think too much in terms of what I would be doing. I'm going to try and stop doing that.

TGWBS: Doesn't seem particularly dangerous. Admittedly I'll kick myself if I'm wrong, but I'm not exactly worried about him. Though he voted for the innocent Shelob twice, it was not as obstinant a vote as mine for LMP, as we had little to go on for Shelob and she was a dangerous variable. He is entirely correct in being suspicious of the ones who give you nothing to use to proove their innocence. I fully understand his suspicion of Encai and myself. Heck, the proof half convinces me that I'm in on a conspiracy, and I know that I'm not.

Next: Why I'm innocent.

You keep saying that I made silly mistakes. As a wolf, I don't make them. When I was formerly overcome by the spirit of evil (oh so thankfully vanquished these days), I looked more innocent than the innocent ones did. That's how that village became... no more. Just remember... each time you assume that I'm bad, I'm not. And when you assume I'm good, you should kill me. Since you all currently suspect me (minus those creepy ones that accurately think I've been framed) I can honestly tell you that you're wrong

PS: betcha there are a LOAD of crossposts. Be thankful you didn't get the six pages of notes I took.

[Mister Underhill]

Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best.

Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt.

Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around.

Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on.

More later...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm trying to find a pattern in all of this, but I can't seem to cut my list of suspects down definitively yet. As I explained earlier, Enca and Fea are on it, Formy and Lhuna too, and most others are uncertain to innocent in my eyes right now. I'm debating whether to sleep on my ideas in hopes of waking up bright and early with the solution, or whether to stay up long enough to make a decision this evening...

[the guy who be short]

I'm bored of waiting.

++Lhunardawen

[Formendacil]

I'll try and make a responce to Mormegil's well-thought out, but somewhat misguided accusation post against me... We start with the Day 1 posts:

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Remember, this was Day 1. No one could be proven innocent based on voting records or reasons for lynching people because none were as yet known. With Post 61, I was hesitant to push for a lynching myself because pushing for a lynching always is a very wolfish thing to do- and as an innocent, I wanted as many villagers left alive as possible. In my last village, I didn't give enough thought to the consquences of killing my fellow villagers, and so the Werewolves won and I was on the table for supper.

As regards 73, my idea of mass-abstention was just that: an idea. Obviously, once someone started voting, it was entirely out of the question, but the idea occurred to me at that point that it might be interesting if the entire village didn't vote. After all, what could the phantom have done to a whole village of us?

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

By now someone had already voted, I believe, so my mass-abstention idea was no longer viable. As for Anguirel and LMP, I was "thinking" out loud as to who to vote for. As already mentioned, there was no evidence as to who the Wolves were, and being smart, they weren't going to go and show themselves. So a random reason was as good as any other, and the best random reason I could come up with was LMP's "personal" life.

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Make what you will of it. Innocents and Werewolves lynched by us villagers are the victims of our votes as surely as Eomer and LMP were the Werewolves victims.

As for the "deeply insulted" bit, I've explained that before, and harping on about that isn't going to make it any clearer than it already is.

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Of course it was my first long post of the game! Master Mormegil, surely you remember my style from the LAST village we died in? My style is to have one major post per day, listing all current players, and saying what I'm feeling about them. This was rather impossible on Day 1, when there was nothing to go by. On Day 2, there are things to go by, but there is no established pattern, and I am usually hesitant to condemn anyone without being 100% positive about it- a lesson learned from the "Wilwarin and Azaelia Situations" in my last villager.

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

Not much to say here, since there aren't really any accusations to defend myself from. Thank you for explaining why I seem so suspicious, as you said at the end:

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm still undecided and going off to sleep over my thoughts. I shall set my alarm to wake me early so as to vote before the deadline. That means two things: 1 - I will not be posting during the next hours. 2 - I will be voting late for a change. I hope no one will try to interpret that to my disadvantage. G'night!

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, finally caught up reading, at least. No time for a completely substantive post, but I'll put in a few thoughts at least:

Fea: I don't flat-out accuse anyone of guilt because I'm not sure of their guilt. I'm more suspicious of people who make definitive statements -- he's guilty, she's a "known innocent". Only the seer and the wolves are in a position to make such accusations, as far as I can see. Having said that, I'm leaning away from you as a prime suspect, based on your and others' posts today. Still have my eye on you, but less convinced than I was when I cast my vote yesterday.

Formendacil has risen high on my list. Has voted for me twice and I know I'm innocent. I was willing to write it off earlier as misguided voting, but Form's still after me, despite having other more suspicious candidates. Either he's a wolf trying to keep suspicion of me high or is a seriously misguided villager. More than this, though, is morm's post 236, which lays out a pretty damning case against Form -- especially that "victim" slip. Nice catch.

Some compelling points have been made about Lhuna, though I can't get a read on her. On my suspicious list, but I don't know if I have enough evidence to cast a vote her way yet.

Esty's been flying under the radar. She's managed to avoid controversy for the most part, but if she's as confused as I am as a first time player, I'm not surprised that she'd be trying to play it safe. I still feel pretty good about her.

Can't figure out tgwbs -- his analysis posts seem helpful and straightforward, but not incredibly insightful. Haven't seen anything yet to make me think "wolf", but not sure of him either.

Right now I'm leaning towards Enca or Form as my top suspects.

[Firefoot]

What if Esty was a wolf? Hitherto I have given her little notice, largely passing her off as innocent. But maybe not...?

Her lack of concrete suspicions could easily be passed off as a werewolf newcomer's general uncertainty in trying to figure out her place. She has started to give some stronger opinions, but that could be a cautious wolf figuring out where it would be safe to cast suspicion.

IF she were, I think her cohort would have to be Fea. Her primary vein of suspicion has been the people who voted for Ang on Day 1 - Encai, Mr. Underhill, and Lhuna. Also, she tried to take suspicion off herself for having voted for Shelob two days in a row by placing focus on Formendacil and Boromir. It could also be Morm, I suppose, but I'm fairly convinced of his innocence.

Esty has said that Fea is unpredictable and mentions her as slightly suspicious. Fea has been fairly convinced of Esty's innocence, though she would "put little past her." Fea could very well unpredictably be trying some subtlety...

Now this basically negates every theory I've so far put out there, so I'm by no means saying it's correct. But certainly something to think about.

[mormegil]

Firefoot I hear you and think it is worth looking into. As I believe you to be innocent I trust your analysis so I ask you to do a full investigation of her please. I feel like I did a decent one of Formendacil. I'm still trying to get a grip on three others I deem suspicious. Namely

Feanor
Encaitare
TGWBS

so if you would complete this I would be most grateful.

Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her.

Edit: the one downside about accusing Esty right now is that she won't be able to defend herself but if she is a wolf who cares.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her.
Would you prefer I was a sincere innocent that sat in front of a computer for HOURS on one of my only days off, pouring through the thread for clues, weird statements, and every speck of "important" information I could find, or would you prefer me being a bloody lying lycan?

Just thought I'd ask.

[Boromir88]

Fea, so you want to know why I changed my views on you, hey?

Well, I think you are probably one of the most likely person here to try to attempt a bluff, but I just think you are being set up.

Taking last voting day into account it seemed high suspicions of you were growing (myself included, and I believe lmp was quite suspicious of you too), a perfect set up for the wolves. They have an easy target to go after (you) the next day if one of the people that you suspected was killed. Also if they kill the person you voted for.

So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf?

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me. I feel confident today that the one's with a lot of pressure on them today atleast one is a wolf (Formendacil, Lhuna, or Enca). So, again...I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

If Form's a wolf, this makes me still perfect, and hopefully you numbskulls will finally see that I'm innocent.

[mormegil]

I am going to make my intentions know that I will be waiting to vote until near the end and I would like Firefoot to do the same. The reason is because we are generally accepted as most likely innocents and I currently believe Firefoot to be innocent and we may as well take advantage of this to the benefit of the other innocents. By saving our votes till the end we can monitor todays voting for wolfish behavior and hopefully stop and back door shenanigans from happening. And if it's close I would rather Firefoot or I be the tie breaker and not others.

[Formendacil]

Once again for me, Master Boromir? Well, there is naught that I can do but shake my head...

For myself, I do not know with a certainty if I can be on ere the end of the day, so I will vote. Fea was at the top of my suspicions list, and so...

++Feanor of the Peredhil