Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Meneltarmacil]

It is the Second Age, seventy-five years since Elendil and his sons escaped Numenor and established the Realms in Exile. Off the southern coast of the now-prosperous kingdom of Gondor, in the Bay of Belfalas, lies an island. Not a very large island as islands go, but large enough to contain a village of twenty in a bay on its northern coast. Recently, however, Sauron, desiring to overthrow the kingdom, has sent three werewolves to infiltrate this village and kill all the villagers. Due to this, the island will one day come to be named...

***********************************************
Tol-in-Gaurhoth, the new Isle of Werewolves.
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Welcome to the seventeenth game of Barrow-Downs Werewolf.
The rules are as follows:

The game is divided into two phases, NIGHT and DAY.

During the DAY, the people of this village shall confer amongst themselves about their suspicions as to who the Wolves may be. This is also the time when the Ranger and Hunter may PM each other. The people of the village vote for whom they want to lynch. Whoever gets the most votes will be lynched. Votes are not retractable and should be posted in bold, on a separate line like this.

++Meneltarmacil

Double lynchings are allowed if two villagers have the same number of votes. If three or more villagers have the same amount of votes, two lynchees will be randomly decided by a roll of whatever variety of die is needed (I have several).

At NIGHT, no more posting is allowed. At this time, the Werewolves PM each other and decide amongst themselves whom to kill. The Seer dreams during the Night, and the Ranger and Hunter carry out their duties.

EDIT: If you die, you're dead. Please do not attempt to contact those still alive in the game to discuss the situation, and please do not post anything more related to this game on this thread or on the original Tol-in-Gaurhoth thread.

FURTHER EDIT: While you can say "I'm a wolf", etc. all you like, you may not post PMs or anything to prove what your role is.

DAYS and NIGHTS will be begin and end at 5:00 PM Eastern Time, which is 10:00 PM GMT and 3:00 PM Mountain Time.

You may not edit your posts, except to correct grammar/format errors or to report cross-posting. Please stay in Invisible Mode.

Roles:

Ordinary Villagers: The Ordinary Villagers post during the DAY and decide whom to lynch. They are silent at NIGHT.

Werewolves: The 3 Werewolves act like Ordinary Villagers during the DAY. At NIGHT, they PM each other and choose one villager to kill. They shall PM that choice to me.

Seer: Each NIGHT, the Seer chooses one villager to dream about and PMs his/her choice to me. The role of that villager will be revealed. The Cobbler, however, will appear to be an Ordinary Villager to the Seer.

Hunter: Each NIGHT, the Hunter chooses one villager to take down with him/her in case he/she is killed and PMs his/her choice to me. However, nobody else dies during the DAY if the Hunter is lynched. The Hunter may PM the Ranger during the DAY, but not at NIGHT.

Ranger: Each NIGHT, the Ranger chooses one villager to protect and PMs his/her choice to me. The Werewolves cannot kill that person during that NIGHT. The Ranger cannot protect him/herself, and cannot protect the same person two Nights in a row.

Cobbler: The Cobbler hates his/her job, his/her life, and the other villagers so much that he/she wants the Wolves to kill everyone. The Cobbler creates confusion during the DAY and helps get innocents lynched, basically doing whatever is needed to help the Wolves, even at the cost of his/her own life. The Cobbler does not know who the Wolves are, and they do not know who the Cobbler is. The Cobbler appears to be an Ordinary Villager to the Seer.

Those Participating:
1. mormegil- Elven smith
2. Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
3. Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
4. dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
5. The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
6. Aiwendil- Old woodwright
7. AbercrombieOfRohan- Mysterious lady who lives in the depths of the forest
8. Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore
9. malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
10. Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
11. Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
12. Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
13. Formendacil- Village historian
14. Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
15. Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
16. the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
17. WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
18. Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
19. Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head
20. Meneltarmacil- Ye Olde Knighte

It is now Night 1. Villagers may not post. Wolves may PM, Ranger and Hunter may not. I only need a name from the Seer toNight.

[Meneltarmacil]

The villagers awoke to the dawn of a new Day.

Shelob wandered around town, still trying to familiarize herself with her surroundings. She passed by Kath, who was checking the village for ghosts.

While mormegil started work on a set of knives, Aiwendil put the finishing touches on a dinner table.

The guy who be short checked his mermaid traps, the only catch being Cailín, who had once again been trying to prove her mermaidness to the village. He sighed and let her out.

Márcolië Lamen attempted to convert Garin to the One True Way of Pastafarianism, only to find herself being attacked by his overeager pigs.

Nilpaurion Felagund ran around on the beach enjoying his freedom from a different Isle of Werewolves, only to run right into a palm tree, knocking a coconut from it onto his head. Valier, who was standing on her head to milk some coconuts nearby, saw this and fell over due to a sudden fit of the giggles as a result.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant attempted to sell Naria a bouquet of colorful flowers; however, this was interrupted when a group of sea turtles apparently sent the latter an urgent message.

Wayne tried to play a game of Dungeons and Dragons in his basement with Gil-Galad. Gil, however, quickly lost interest in the game while analyzing the shapes of the various dice on the table.

As Glirdan walked by muttering to himself under his breath, The Saucepan Man silently wondered if there was a legal way to get all these nutcases shipped off the island for good.

Their thoughts were interrupted by a scream from within the woods. The villagers ran to investigate, finding the mysterious AbercrombieofRohan in distress. Meneltarmacil lay upon ye olde grounde nearby, impaled with ye olde speare. Upon examining ye olde knighte, malkatoj announced that he was only “mostly dead, which is barely alive.”

“Who did this to you?” The Saucepan Man asked.

“Th-three… w-werewolves...” Menel said with his dying breath, and then fell silent. As Formendacil dutifully recorded all this in the village chronicles, malkatoj, seeing that Menel was now “all dead,” went through his pockets looking for loose change.

The villagers gathered in the center of town. The wolf hunt had begun.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Aiwendil- Old woodwright
AbercrombieOfRohan- Mysterious lady who lives in the depths of the forest
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 16

It is now Day 1. Villagers may post. Hunter and Ranger may PM each other, Wolves may not.

(Note: My mentioning of villagers' activities is not intended to refer to their roles as wolves, etc.)

[Gil-Galad]

oh my three werewolves... thats bad... what are we to do? where are our gifted to save us? oh i hope i don't get lynched... though if i say this i will get band-wagonned on again and i'll be lynched and it will be for naught becuase i'm an Ordinary...again... though when i say i'm innocent people will say that sounds wolish and lynch me and that'll prove to them that i am indeed innocent...perhaps i've said too much already... i need to be serious... oh look a rectangle! *runs off*

[the guy who be short]

Alas for the death of ye olde knighte. Verily shall he be missed. I recall his tales of brave exploits amusing me when I was a young lad, afore my fisher years.

Now then, I would like to arbitrarily mention my suspicion of the following:

mormegil
Garin
Nilpaurion Felagund
dancing spawn of ungoliant
The Saucepan Man
Aiwendil
AbercrombieOfRohan
Shelob
malkatoj
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Márcolië Lamen
Formendacil
Cailín
Kath
WaynetheGoblin
Naria
Valier

Especially Kath, cos she's nasssty. ;)

[Cailín]

Only one post and I am already confused! Gil, dear, you sound rather traumatised. Anything you wish to own up to?

Three werewolves! Not one, not a modest couple, but three...! And they are horrible creatures: all smelly and hairy and nothing gracious about them. I suppose this would be a proper time to return to sea, but unfortunately, I quite forgot where I left my red cap.

TGWBS obsession with mythical creatures is certainly suddenly far more unnerving. I say he has an unhealthy obsession for mermaids. And why isn't he more obsessed with me? *whines*

You don't suppose werewolves only eat meat, huh? I might be immune!

[the guy who be short]

Cailín, I've told you over and over. You're not a mermaid. You never were a mermaid. You never will be a mermaid. You have LEGS, for Illamatar's sake!

As for my "unhealthy" obsession with mermaids... it's more a passion than an obsession. And I have the right to a personal life, don't I? :p

I'd like to add that mermaids and werewolves are completely unalike. Unless you get weremaids...

[Valier]

Oh! OH! OH! My head is starting to hurt! (Giggle) THREE WEREWOLVES!!!! What ever shall we do? I must go and stand on my head some more, to rid me of this nasty headache........But I will be (Giggle)...watching you all for signs of wolfishness. (Giggle)

[Cailín]

Cailín, I've told you over and over. You're not a mermaid. You never were a mermaid. You never will be a mermaid. You have LEGS, for Illamatar's sake!

They are not legs, my tail was just accidentally split in half! I had a hard life, you know. :( And besides, everyone knows mermaids have legs while on land! You don't know the first thing about them! You'll never catch one. Haha.

Anyway - I will have to leave you all for now. My fins desperately need a bath and I have to practice sea hymns and the like. Be safe while I'm gone. Don't kill fish. They are our friends.

[Formendacil]

'Tis such a pity, good villagers, how the events of one's life conspire to take us away at times when our civic responsibility should be first in our lives...

I should let you all know, right now, that I am the Ranger, and I've dreamed about all of the villager, and if anyone kills me, I'll kill Nilp, 'cause he wants to be lynched:

mormegil: Is innocent, annoyingly so. He'll probably propose a grand plan on Day 3 or 4 to out the Werewolves.
Garin: Is a Werewolf.
Nilpaurion Felagund: Is innocent, but suicidal.
dancing spawn of ungoliant: Is another Werewolf.
The Saucepan Man: Is innocent. He will try and kill Morm.0
Aiwendil: Is the tax-collector. He will rob us blind.
AbercrombieOfRohan: Is a very pretty young girl and couldn't possibly hurt me.
Shelob: Is also very pretty, but she'll probably try and lynch me.
malkatoj: Will try to kill me. Innocent, though.
Gil-Galad: Is not a Werewolf. Might be the Werebear.
Glirdan: Is secretly a Hobbit. Don't let on, though.
Márcolië Lamen: Has a thing for turtles. Might be a Wereturtle.
The Guy Who Be Short: Is guiltier than snot, and should be our first victim.
Cailín: Is the third Werewolf.
Kath: Is quiet. She'll probably hide in a corner until Day 5, then kill us all.
WaynetheGoblin: Has a thing for Werewolves. Probably the Cobbler.
Naria: Very scary, but innocent.
Valier: Is Queen Beruthiel: see that catavatar?

I'm voting for ++ Valier. Queen Beruthiel must go!

(And if you believe everything I've said, you're madder than I am! Sorry about things, but I very likely won't post again toDAY, nor on DAY 2 till later on... Kill me if you like, you're only losing your Lord and Master. :p )

[Glirdan]

Oh!! Look!! The three Wolves!!! Oops!! Never mind!! I'm just imagining things again. And what's this!? Menel is dead!! My dear old friend! He always helped me calm down when I got to out of hand. Now who is to help me? We need to find these nassty crabs!! I mean Wolves!! Evil is afoot!! Menel dead!? What are you talking about! He's right here beside me!! I think I'm going to go get my medication. Maybe when I come back I'll be less delusional.

*RL Comment* I will be gone the rest of the night. I should be back on early in the morning tomorrow in order to figure things out and vote. So don't take my abscence as a suspicious. Thank you. *RL Comment Ended*

[Kath]

Just checking in, thought I'd see if any ghosties or ghoulies had come out to play, and instead I find werewolves! Even better! Well, not for poor Menel or course but from a scientific point of view the possibilities are endless!

If we get one, do make sure I get the body, I'd like to run some tests.

Aaanyway, it's Day 1, and what do we do on Day 1 everyone? That's right! Randomly accuse people! But hey, where's the point, hardly anyones here yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Aaanyway, it's Day 1, and what do we do on Day 1 everyone? That's right! Randomly accuse people!Mistress Kath! I beseech you! Surely we should not be randomly accusing anyone. What is needed here is the application of my trusted friend, the law.

While we may be but a remote outpost, the laws of our beloved Kingdom still apply here as they do elsewhere in the realm of Gondor. And the law commands that, where a crime has been committed, as it has here, the suspects must be tried fairly before their peers by means of a thorough review of the evidence. And if the evidence reveals the guilt of the accused then the law decrees the sentence for cold blooded murder as death by hanging. But only if their guilt is established - beyond all reasonable doubt.

And yet, we need a judge. Since we have no time to send to the mainland in this matter, I must do my duty and take on that onerous burden myself, being the only one acquainted with the law here. As a man of the law, I am of course above suspicion. Were I one of these foul fiends of Udun, I would have no choice but to confess right now, in light of my legal training. But I am no Werewolf.

Now, this court is in session. Let him or her speak who has evidence upon which to base an accusation. Who is to be brought before me accused of this terrible crime?

[Kath]

Oh come now! Law should perhaps be above such petty things as lies, but I tell you now sir they are not. And as for your being above suspicion, well! We only have your word that you are in fact a man of the law. Although, being one will put you under more suspicion than not! We all know about lawyers in these parts. Why if you are truthful and honest I am a 20th century human!

Nevertheless, reason and proof behind accusations is important, but with so few people around at the moment, is it really going to be all that helpful?

[Aiwendil]

Werewolves, you say? No trouble at all; I'll have a wooden stake fixed up in half a moment.

Or is it vampires that those work on? Can't recall. Maybe we are in trouble.

Forgive me if I speak plainly, Judge Saucepan, but I've little use for courts and tribunals. Seems to me they do a fair job making wolves out of folks all by themselves.

[WaynetheGoblin]

A vote right off the bat and its not for me. I belive some of the things formen said not the things about me. That is suspicious to vote in your first post and i dont like I might come back and vote for him later ( I said maybe ). I am playing my not post much game because i am in a contest at school so i have to work on it alot. Also I might not post much on feburary 10 or 11 because well im not getting in to a story. In this game evrybody is suspicious im watching everybody. Right now I looking at formen kath morm and spm they are the ones that i think are wolfs or coobler. I think formen is the cobbler trying to attract attetion and get it away from the wolfs but Im not sure yet. I will be back later to post my vote it is a matter of formens posts that will judge my vote.GOODBYE! This is my longest post. :D

[The Saucepan Man]

We only have your word that you are in fact a man of the law.

Forgive me if I speak plainly, Judge Saucepan, but I've little use for courts and tribunals. Seems to me they do a fair job making wolves out of folks all by themselves.See how the absence of a proper legal framework breeds lies and mistrust?

My dear villagers, this is precisely what we should be going out of our way to avoid. For it is by acting on the basis of random accusations and suspicions based upon little no evidence that we will do these Wolves work for them. This bloodthirsty gallows mentality will bring us nothing but our own doom. The Wolves among us will set villager against villager, herding the lynch mob in the direction of those who are innocent or, worse still, those who can be of great help to us in our hour of need.

I have a grave concern over those who would seek to discard the teachings of the law so readily, but I myself require solid evidence before I will condemn anyone to the gallows.

[WaynetheGoblin]

What he said in my words and i will vote.
++FORMENDACIL

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Well, you know what they say Saucie, "The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers. (http://www-tech.mit.edu/Shakespeare/2henryvi/2henryvi.4.2.html)"

Our poor Menel, his was a dear old knight and though I saw him but once, he had a jovial and chivalrous countenance. What monstrosties have been unleashed upon us? I should not have left the comfort of the woods...

Formendacil has voted early, not unusual. I believe he's done that on several occasions (well, that I've read about, of course.)

Doing some careful sleuthing work (pulling names out of a hat), I have deduced that Formendacil, Aiwendil and Gil-Galad are guilty. Explain yourselves!

[Gil-Galad]

i beleive in what Mr. Saucey-Judge-Man (http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/1428/kfk0ri.jpg) is saying, and we should maybe respect his Authoritay (http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/6421/samandmax1qg.jpg) or something bad will happen that will scar us all dramtically (http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/152/santamars62lr.jpg).

Though justice will probably not prevail on the side of me, Gil-galad (http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/8751/count5uw.jpg), i wholehardingly believe in Sauceman's (http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/3651/mightor7hu.png) abilities and status (http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/3503/glrigormole6ae.jpg).

we all don't want to make horrible mistakes (http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/5501/ripdonkey1ir.jpg) to happen which will bring an inevitable compromise (http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/6210/trogdor8qs.jpg).


so that just leaves us to ponder (http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/5696/skeletor6ju.jpg) what to do with our little village before we make even more mistakes, like the fashion-sense (http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/149/notpinkguysthumb9dq.jpg) that plagues some of us.

In Conclusion if we do not defeat this Werewolf Scourge, we may have to look for other options (http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/6069/pd870lg1yo.jpg).
All of us want to return home (http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/7188/england2dp.jpg) so lets clean this mess and take a little vacation (http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/2915/scaldinglake0eb.png).


cheers

P.S. no one wants to be that body (http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/329/waldo7de.jpg) in the wood-chipper

[malkatoj]

Menel's dead, eh? Well, as long as he's all dead, there's nothing I can do about it. I've already gotten the change out of his pockets, of course, and I'd share it but it amounted to so little...plus, I'm retired. I tried my best on this guy and really, I've never worked for so little. I need all the money I can get.

So the most recent miracle over here has told me that Abercrombie, Valier and Naria are the wolves. You guys better have a good excuse--none of this 'bitten by one' stuff, if you had come to me I could have cured you up nice and good. I made some pills earlier for wolfishness and nobody ate them. Chocolate coating and everything. Makes it go down easier.

Aside from those three, Saucepan's seeming awfully pompous, he's probably the ranger. Gil keeps talking and he put all those links up and they're confusing, so cobbler. Aiwendil's acting pretty deep and whatnot, so he's the seer. And of course TGWBS is the hunter.

I'll be back with a vote at some point in the DAY, until then, I'll be working on a miracle potion to rid the village of wolves. Only we all have to drink it...

::Real-life: I'll be away for the Weekend and *will* have computer access, but as I'm company I don't like to use it too too much. I'll make sure to be on, but I might not be as active as usual. Also posting in the announcements thread. Thank you::

[The Saucepan Man]

i beleive in what Mr. Saucey-Judge-Man is saying, and we should maybe respect his AuthoritayThe Man of Shapes speaks sense, though the images which he conjures before us sorely confuse me. I am nevertheless heartened that he at least is prepared to put his trust in the law.

Well, if no one else is to bring a forensic mind to bear in this most dire of situations, I suppose I shall have to do so myself and act in the role of both prosecutor and judge.

WaynetheGoblin, please stand forth and answer me these questions.

You suspect Formendacil because he voted early. Yet you have voted early yourself. Does not that make you suspicious on the basis of your own words?

And you voiced suspicion of him as the Cobbler, yet vote for him as though you believe him to be a Wolf. Why?

And now, Miss OfRohan. You voice mistrust of lawyers, yet seek to bring accusations yourself and call upon three of our fellow villagers to defend themselves.

Doing some careful sleuthing work (pulling names out of a hat), I have deduced that Formendacil, Aiwendil and Gil-Galad are guilty.The law decrees that all are innocent until proven guilty. Please enlighten us as to the evidence upon which you base these accusations.

[The Saucepan Man]

Aside from those three, Saucepan's seeming awfully pompous, he's probably the ranger.Just doing my job, madam. Alas, I cannot protect you by night as you seem to think. But I can wield the sword of justice by day. And as long as I have the strength in me to do so, I shall. It is by the application of cold logic, rather than cold steel, that we shall rid ourselves of this evil that plagues us.


So the most recent miracle over here has told me that Abercrombie, Valier and Naria are the wolves.Enough talk of miracles, woman! What evidence to you have do accuse them so?

[Shelob]

Evidence? On the first day? Are all lawyers so optimistic?

Somehow I imagine "miracles" and "pulling names out of a hat" are the best we can hope for right now. So long as our accusations don't boil down to "that little yellow bird in the rafters told me, yeah, that one, the one saying you've sold your soul to the devil" I think we're doing good. Well, so well as a town with werewolves can be doing anyhow.

Given as we've random accusations with no response but "Evidence!" I think I'll sit back and wait for a while, get a drink, ponder what little I have to work from, and rest up for the rest of this witc---erm, Wolf Trial...

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Nay, you misunderstand me, my good fellow. I've provided that quote as evidence for Kath and Aiwendil, thinking that perhaps they could use it in their case against you.

Please enlighten us as to the evidence upon which you base these accusations.

I've already enlightened you.

(pulling names out of a hat)

There is no evidence. Were this a real case, my evidence would be thrown out of court immediately.

But since you ask it of me, I will try my best to provide cases against these people. (Please believe I'm throwing out random accusations and am basically pulling these arguments out of thin air.)

Formendacil: He has voted early, but so has Wayne, and of the two, I'm slightly more inclined to believe Formendacil's innocence. I understand too, that he has RL situations that prevent his access to the computer.

Aiwendil: I've no case against you at all and with only one post you can hardly expect that anyone would have more evidence to present. I suppose I could suspect him because of his silence, but then there are those that have not posted at all yet, who would, by that reasoning, would be more suspicious.

Gil-Galad: His first post is rather confusing and seems a bit desperate when there is no need for him to be desperate at all. I'd be less inclined to lynch him if he hadn't been so defensive. Well, perhaps defensive isn't the correct word....is there a word that means really- severely- not- wishing- to- be- lynched- when- absolutely- no- evidence- has- yet- come- to- light- of- you- guilt- or- otherwise? He believes in you Mr. Saucepan, shall we take this as evidence of his role? Only your lynching would provide us with that information.

[The Saucepan Man]

So this is what passes for evidence in this village?

Has no one paused to consider whether they noticed anyone creeping off into the woods this morning? Or whether, when we first heard the cries of Ye Olde Kinght, any of us were missing?

And has anyone bothered to survey the scene of the crime for clues? No? Garn! I am surrounded by incompetence. Shall I be forced to fulfil the role of constable as well as prosecutor and judge in this accursed village? Sadly, it would seem so. Well, if you'll excuse me, I have work to do ...

[malkatoj]

Enough talk of miracles, woman! What evidence to you have do accuse them so?

Oh, really, what has this world come to when a simple Miracle Man must provide evidence for his miracles?

If you want a reasoned argument, that'll be tough, especially considering how early it is. I doubt my vote will end up with any of the people I mentioned as 'wolves' earlier--it was a simple dice throw, thanks for the idea to our sorely missed Meneltarmacil. So, my reasoning: Gil still confuses me, which still leads me to believe he could be the cobbler. Too much going on in his post, especially links that could easily distract from our task of finding and killing the wolves.

As for said finding/killing wolves, the only person I have to suspect so far is Wayne, though it is just as likely (or more likely) simply Wayne being Wayne than it is Wayne being a wolf. I find it odd that he was so suspicious of Formendacil's early vote, when Formendacil explained that he has a reason for it, and then proceeded to vote early himself, based on that suspicion. There's a flaw in that logic, there. Also, his post confuses me to no end:

What he said in my words and i will vote.

What am I to make of this?

Now, if I were to vote in this post, it would be for Wayne. Luckily, I will have time tomorrow at least to vote (though I'm not sure how much else) so that won't be necessary right now. It is, however, necessary that I go to sleep, so I'll be back for that vote tomorrow.

-Miracle Malka

[mormegil]

Saucepan, you speak highly of Gondor and its laws and that we all answer to these. I am descended from Elven Princes and have come to this island as an embassy from Cirdan the Shipwright. While no killer I answer to his laws and the petty debates of mere mortals have no sway on me.


mormegil: Is innocent, annoyingly so. He'll probably propose a grand plan on Day 3 or 4 to out the Werewolves.

Nice to see I have a friend...sort of :rolleyes:

Perhaps I will propose a plan, most likely I will need to make some of my weapons and route this villains myself for while the foresight of Elrond does not rest upon me I have the ability to judge the character of a man nigh as well as blessed Idril herself. I will find these wolves for you.

oh my three werewolves... thats bad... what are we to do? where are our gifted to save us? oh i hope i don't get lynched... though if i say this i will get band-wagonned on again and i'll be lynched and it will be for naught becuase i'm an Ordinary...again... though when i say i'm innocent people will say that sounds wolish and lynch me and that'll prove to them that i am indeed innocent...perhaps i've said too much already... i need to be serious... oh look a rectangle! *runs off*

Gil, while I'm unsure of your guilt or innocence, currently, this does not help your case in the least. Now it comes to mind that you may be the cobbler attempting to take attention away from others. You do this because you know that likely you will die soon enough so why not occupy a couple of days debate about whether or not we should lynch you. Thus giving the wolves cover for the first couple of days. Similar to what Wayne propose about Formendacil, but no I suspect that Formendacil likes the attention and wanted to stir up debate which is okay by me.

[Gil-Galad]

Well Morm, i know i'm going to be lynched because there is nothing that i can do to live past day 2, so i might as well have fun while i'm at it, lynch me if you must, it'll give the wolves another chance of surviving

[Naria]

Oh no! Our dear Knight is dead!*tear rolling down her cheek*

What's that? You fellas think you saw who did this.....oh, umm ha, ok. Now that's four different stories. I knew I shouldn't listen to sandcrabs. Maybe the dolphins have something better to offer.


The first day is rather random and I will make a post and a vote tomorrow. I can't put too much down right now because my computer is getting fixed and I have limited time on this one. I'll get on a pc somwhere, sometime tomorrow. Hopefully I'll get mine back then as well.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:
See how the absence of a proper legal framework breeds lies and mistrust?

Now, look here. We're a long way from Osgiliath and I for one prefer to trust to our own wits than to some arcane Numenorean legal code. When I was young, we didn't have these sneering legalists coming in and telling us how to run our village. Had to fend for ourselves. And I say that unless you've got a company of Dunedain summoned to assist us, your notions about a Gondorian court are going to do very little good.

That doesn't mean I'm against our getting organized, though. I'd just like to see it done more fair-like. Now these Gaurhoth were clever, it seems to me; I've looked long at the place where Meneltarmacil was slain and I've found not a thing as points the finger at anyone in particular, if you follow me. So it seems to me the best thing's to keep our eyes open for anyone acting suspicious-like. And I say we all ought to get together and talk things over - try to figure out what these wolves are likely to do, and how we might spot them.

[mormegil]

Well Morm, i know i'm going to be lynched because there is nothing that i can do to live past day 2, so i might as well have fun while i'm at it, lynch me if you must, it'll give the wolves another chance of surviving

Rather fatalistic aren't you?

I don't really know what to make of Gil. My guess is silly and confusing but likely innocent. However if confusing behavior continues I may change that notion.

I ask you what need have we of a woman that calls herself a miracle man and yet merely robs the corpses of the little gold available? Seems a bit unscrupulous to me if not outright malevolent. Malka, what need do we have of you? In fact there are many around here that serve no discernable purpose. I mean just look at this list.

mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Aiwendil- Old woodwright
AbercrombieOfRohan- Mysterious lady who lives in the depths of the forest
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head


No wonder so many of you mortals are pathetic servants to Sauron, does he show you how to bath properly as well? It's quite probably that the majority of wolves are in the group that holds those with no real profession and don't contribute much to the welfare of our village. If we loose a couple of innocents at least we'll still have useful people around.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, I have a confession to make.

Rather, I would like to elucidate the inner workings of the other side of the person you know as Nilpaurion Felagund.

Despite the rule prohibiting the posting of PM conversations, my conscience implores to be allowed to make this violation for all our sakes.

O my fellow villagers, read and judge for yourself!

Originally Sent by Bethiril

So, who do we kill toNight?
Originally Sent by Narvi, son of Gimli

Wait, I'm still thinking.
Originally Sent by Nilpaurion Felagund

So, we three are the Werewolves, huh?
Originally Sent by Bethiril

Why, yes, we are.
Originally Sent by Nilpaurion Felagund

Figures . . .
Originally Sent by Narvi, son of Gimli

Hmm... I say we kill the Moderator. He's too powerful.
Originally Sent by Bethiril

Nu-uh. I want Meneltarmacil out first. It's personal.
Originally Sent by Nilpaurion Felagund

Why? What did he do to you?
Originally Sent by Bethiril

Why, nothing. I just thought I needed a pretty cool reason. :cool:
Originally sent by Narvi, son of Gimli

No, I say we kill the mod first.

++Moderator

There!
Originally sent by Bethiril

No, no, no. I say we kill Menel!

++Meneltarmacil
Originally sent by Nilpaurion Felagund

Wait, isn't Menel the mod?
Originally sent by Narvi, son of Gimli

Hmm... It appears so...
Originally Sent by Bethiril

It's hardly the same! No, wait, you're right.
Originally Sent by Nilpaurion Felagund

So, our victim for toNIGHT is Meneltarmacil the Moderator, right?
Originally Sent by Narvi, son of Gimli

Yes.
Originally Sent by Bethiril

Yes.
Originally Sent by Nilpaurion Felagund

Let's get to work.

After having read all that, you now know of my dark and terrible alter-ego. (Not you, Adam, although you are dark and terrible yourself. :p )

Garn! I'd kill you dead now if I had my own body.

Anyway . . . My fair village, give me the chance to sacrifice myself for the safety of all.

In the end, I choose to vote for myself:

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(I'll place this in a different post. Don't want to break the acrosti . . . oops, hehe. Sorry. :o )

As usual, illogical DAY 1 me. I won't be back 'til Monday, enedwaith (if you let me live that long, that is), so this is all you'll get for me. Tata!

Don't lynch fair dancing spawn yet! :)

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

... in a rather gruesome way. Here's a little summary what has happened thus far. I didn't make a difference whether people are joking or making random or real accusations, because you can't never know about the wolves...

Gil-Galad: Calls forth the gifteds to save the village, uses almost a whole post to defend himself when nothing has been said, believes in SpM, acts pessimistic, wants to have fun before he's killed.

"All of us want to return home so lets clean this mess and take a little vacation." ~Gil

Umm, I live here... Where do you live? With Sauron?

TGWBS: Suspects everybody bit himself, especially Kath

Cailín: Says werewolves are horrible, is confused by Gil, finds TGWBS' obsession unnerving

Valier: Has a headache

Formendacil: Suspects Garin, spawn, Aiwendil, Gil, Marcolie, TGWBS, Cailín, Kath and Wayne. Votes for Valier because believes her to be Queen Beruthiel

Glirdan: Needs to get his medication

Kath: Is interested in science, says Day 1 is random, doesn't trust SpM's word, doubts that reasons behind accusations are helpful this early

SpM: Doesn't want to lynch people unless their guilt is "established - beyond all reasonable doubt". Places himself above suspicion, laments bloodthirstiness, appreciates Gil's support, demands Wayne to explain himself, comments Abercrombies random accusing, says he's not the Ranger, wants to see some evidence for accusations

Aiwendil: Says we might be in trouble, doubts the efficiency of law, says wolves are clever, wants to keep an eye on suspicious behaviour, wants to talk

Wayne: Believes in some things Formendacil says, but not the things he said about Wayne. He's suspicious of everybody, especially Kath, morm, Spm and Formendacil. Thinks Form is the Cobbler and votes for him.

Abercrombie: Talks about killing lawyers, says Formendacil's behaviour isn't unusual, randomly accuses Formendacil, Aiwendil and Gil demanding an explanation from them. Says there is no evidence and pulls arguments "out of thin air". Doesn't really suspect Formen and Aiwendil, says Gil's and SpM's guilt might depend on each other.

malkatoj: Accuses Abercrombie, Valier and Naria. Thinks that SpM is the Ranger, Gil's the Cobbler, Aiwendil's the Seer and TGWBS is the Hunter. Says it's too early for reasoned arguments, doubts that she'll vote for those she accused to be wolves, suspects Wayne, but says that more likely he's just being himself.

mormegil: Doesn't follow the same laws as SpM, but promises to find the wolves. Thinks Gil might be the Cobbler, says we don't need people like malkatoj who don't have a proper profession.

"If we loosea couple of innocents at least we'll still have useful people around." ~morm
This is no Survivor, my good sir! I can't see how the wolves are more useful to this village than innocents.

Naria: Doesn't trust sandcrabs, says Day 1 is random.

Nilp: Says the wolves are Bethril; Narvi, son of Gimli and himself, votes for himself. Doesn't want to get spawn lynched yet.

(Thanks, but what do you mean yet? :p )


Interesting...
I understand that it's not easy to come up with a good theory this early, but I'd assume that people can say something else, too, than that things are random on the first day or that they have health problems.
I have to go to make a wreath of flowers on Meneltarmacil's grave, but after that I'll come back and try to offer more help for this glum situation.

[Cailín]

So, we already have three votes. One is based on a dancing cat, another is based on some undoubtedly flawless logic that makes no sense to me and the final… oh well… So, Nilp voting for himself definitely indicates… means that… um, let’s be fair, it doesn’t mean anything. Which reminds me, Gil, Wayne, if you wish to live past Day 1, vote for yourself! Look at that Nilpaurion-fiend, it’s the perfect method.

Since this village is full of lunatics – except for me, obviously, you are all just sceptics – and coconut milkers, whatever foul and suspicious thing that may be, I say we should listen to Saucepan Man, because he seems to know what he’s talking about. Then again, he is not really talking about anything, which is quite suspicious in itself.

Aside from those three, Saucepan's seeming awfully pompous, he's probably the ranger. Gil keeps talking and he put all those links up and they're confusing, so cobbler. Aiwendil's acting pretty deep and whatnot, so he's the seer. And of course TGWBS is the hunter.

What are you doing, malkatoj, revealing the Gifted so readily! Oh no, now what are we to do? :eek:

It's quite probably that the majority of wolves are in the group that holds those with no real profession and don't contribute much to the welfare of our village.

Pfwah, and who are you Mr. Elven Smith, to judge who is valuable to this village? Can your crafty weapons save us from the wolves? Were you able to protect poor Meneltarmacil? Besides, I’ll have you know I contribute much to the welfare of this village. I keep TGWBS busy and and and… I can swim. A little. Sometimes. Then again, considering all laws of logic, it is quite likely most wolves are in the group of people without a real profession, simply because that group is clearly in the majority.

Anyhow, I doubt we shall be building a strong case against anyone toDay. Maybe we should lynch Wayne. He’s just a wimp anyway. I also mistrust Shelob and Kath. Kath seems a little over-enthusiastic about the whole thing – if she wishes to see werewolf activity, let her go to Mordor and leave us be - and Shelob… well, just a case of Day 1 xenophobia I suppose.

Finally, are these Bethiril and Narvi perhaps codenames? Should we jumble them, rearrange them and propose some wacked theory concerning their real identities?

I shall be back shortly, with hopefully more sensible things to say. Like Dancing Spawn just did (or at least, tis a brave attempt).

[Glirdan]

Well, I have returned from getting my medication and I must say that I feel much better today. I have already just briefly scanned the posts and I must say, something strange from our dear lawyer jumped out at me:

Now, this court is in session. Let him or her speak who has evidence upon which to base an accusation.

Sounds to me as if he's trying to bring out the Seer to tell us who he/she knows is innocent or a Wolf. This is making me slightly suspicious for the moment. I will return after a brief analysis of everything that's happened throughout the Day.

[Glirdan]

Well, after analysing everyone who's posted, I've now gotten more suspicions.

Firstly, Formendacil's vote is rather early. Very early infact. However, I still believe that he's innocent and since our esteemed lawyer will wish to ask me my reasoning behind this, and all other things I come up with, I will give it now. I believe that Form is just being as random as pretty much everyone else is. There is no suspicion in Form that I can ee of as of yet. As to this comment from our historian:

Glirdan: Is secretly a Hobbit. Don't let on, though.

I'm not a Hobbit. Sure I might have very curly feet and hair not to mention am only four feet tall. But that does not mean that I am a Hobbt. I'm just a very short Elf. ( :p )

Second. Gil is being rather confusing with all his talk of being innocent and afraid that we will lynch him. Now, I'm inclined to agree with at least this part of SpM's logic, "Innocent until proven guilty." So, in other words Gil, until you give us reason for your guilt, you're innocent. However, talking repeatedly about us lynching you will make you seem even more suspicious.

Third. Wayne's vote for Form is rather odd and has, as has been said, no logic in it what-so-ever. Definetly seems suspicious, but, is it really a cause of worry? Do we absolutely need to be afraid of him? I believe not. At least not until something drastic happens.

Fourth. Something about SpM is not sitting right with me. It might be because he's trying to find away to get me off the island. Or it might be something else. Maybe it's the quote that I put in my previous post.

Fifth. Morm's wish to be rid of all the lunatics, even though they be innocent, is rather unnerving. More innocents is better than more dead innocents and three Wolves still left. I will definetly watch you more carefully.

Lastly. I have no idea what to think of Nilp's craziness. It's probably just a ploy and he's really innocent. But something about that post doesn't sit well with me.

That's all that I've come up with. There are still those among us who have not said anything or barely anything. It's making me rather nervous. I think I need to go get my medication again. I'm shaking a lot right now.

[Cailín]

I wish I could come up with an intelligent plan to make a reasoned decision toDay, but so far, all I can think is throwing people in the water and see if they sink. I’m not sure whether it is wolvish to sink or not, but at least it will tell us something, right?

Random speculations and predictions:

mormegil- If Mormegil is not a wolf, we want to have him around. He makes shiny weapons and he insults random people. Both are nice traits when trying to find wolves. If he’s guilty, SpM will start a lynching campaign against him in about two days, so not to worry.
Garin- He’s been silent so far. If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably be truthful about it or accidentally leave a clue. We would be able to hear him trying to muffle his evil laugh of victory after each spoken word.
Nilpaurion Felagund- We lynch him today, tomorrow, sometime soon. Or the wolves attack him. Or he kills himself. I’m not worried.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Now dancing spawn is someone who might be a dangerous wolf. Fortunately, everybody thinks so, so she will never get away with it.
The Saucepan Man- If he’s not killed by the wolves soon, we can lynch him out of sheer annoyance.
Aiwendil- Not sure what to make of this shady character.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Eager to make sense and eager to get serious. She gets away with everything, so I suppose we should consider lynching her soon. But then again, I always believe she’s the Hunter. It just fits, doesn’t it?
Shelob- She’ll be eaten during Night 2. If she’s a wolf, we’ll probably lose.
malkatoj- She’s always lupine. Let’s kill her now before she kills us all!
Gil-Galad- He thinks we shall lynch him toDay anyway, so I don’t suppose he’ll show up for voting again. If he’s a wolf, he will believe himself dead. Which is almost as good as having really lynched him.
Glirdan- If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably make some elaborate but extremely flawed plot, leading us to believe Naria is the Werebear, Meneltarmacil was actually the Seer and every single one of us is Cursed. If he’s not, we shall lynch him as an innocent. Probably before Day 5 is over.
Márcolië Lamen- If Márcolië Lamen is a wolf, we will never find out unless she’s shot by the Hunter. Or tries speaking in all capitals.
Formendacil- Right before the end of the game, we shall realise Formendacil is behind it all, like a very skilled puppeteer. We shall proceed to lynch him or he’ll reveal himself as the Seer.
Cailín- If she’s a wolf, she’ll probably get all her fellows lynched and then look smug in the end. Or make an enormous slip and get shot by the Hunter. But she’s not a wolf. She’s a mermaid.
Kath- The wolves will kill her toNight, believing she is the Ranger. Or the Cobbler. Or even if she’s a wolf herself. It hardly matters.
the guy who be short- If he’s a wolf, he will be trying so hard to seem like an ordinary he’ll end up killing himself during Nights. Accidentally, of course, but TGWBS is most capable of deluding himself.
WaynetheGoblin- He’s Wayne. What can I say?
Naria- Easy. If she votes for the same person three times in a row, she’s innocent.
Valier- I think we’re doomed if she is a wolf. Then again, she might admit it between giggles.

Um, yeah. This really is about the best I can do during Day 1. My initial inclination is to vote Wayne (or possibly someone really quiet and sneaky), if nothing interesting happens. I don’t like Wayne's vote for Formendacil (who admittedly gave the best-reasoned accusation so far ;) ) and I fear we shall suspect him sooner or later anyway. But I shall watch developments with interest and I still hope someone might propose a grand, ambitious and perfect plan before the Day is done.

The problem is – people are randomly accusing, which doesn’t tell us much. However, voting always does. Voting is evidence. The only plan I can come up with is the usual: spread the voting. The wolves are likely to spread their votes as well and will probably avoid all jumping on the same bandwagon. I don't think they will dare casting a wolf-on-wolf vote if we spread the votes and don't start early bandwagons, since that would be far too risky and if we could ensure they never vote for each other, voting should tell us something within a Day or two. The only problem and serious danger is that we might lynch a Gifted. That would be bad.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.

[malkatoj]

So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.

I'll be back later to vote, just in case anyone else comes on and gives something away, but that is where my suspicions lie for the moment.

[Glirdan]

Well, isn't it quiet. A little too quiet if I may say so.

I must say that I agree with malka on the fact that Wayne and Gil are being a kind of nuissance, but I don't think we should lynch them just because. And since you said that malka, it makes me think that perhaps you might be hiding a little furry secret. You saying that makes you seem anxious to be rid of two possible (more than likely they are) innocents. Care to explain yourself?

[Garin]

Since no one knows anyone on day one. (Except the lousy wolves, of course. They have already had a midnight snack together--Meneltarmacil) I decided to examine each villagers chosen role/occupation. It is rather useless and filled with conjecture but it should stimulate conversation. Please don't take it personally, remember I have no social skills. As for the people I seem to say are innocent, that too is fleeting. You probably just chose a normal, respectable trade.
mormegil- Elven smith... Smiths are a welcome commodity although you have always seemed more orcish than elvish.
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners. I bring you the black diamonds that taste so delicious, plus I carry a silver-headed staff with which to discipline my pigs and also brain werewolves.
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth. I suppose we can trust the post- enslaved for now.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist. I like flowers, and Spawn gives us them. Fine, for now.
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law. I care not for advocates of the law but it is a noble profession, if you like noble professions. I don't.
Aiwendil- Old woodwright. Wood is good. Feel safe from my vote for now.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Mysterious lady who lives in the depths of the forest. Mysterious is not a welcome commodity in these lands, why the mystery and what are you hiding?
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore. Washed ashore at the same time werewolves arrive. Quite the coincidence, no?
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man) I don't believe in miracles, maybe you hope they will save your lycan behind.
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst. We are about to stone you, what do you think of these rocks? Oblong maybe?
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street. Crazy is always a perfect cover for the furry, just admit it.
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian. I researched your role. It instantly puts you in cahoots with Abercrombie. Her Avatar reflects your beliefs. Is this some wolfish cult? EDIT: Aber apparently changed her image. So,never mind.
Formendacil- Village historian. Oh good, every town needs a boring guy. I am fine for now and will ignore your allegations.
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid. Delusion is not something we need at this time. I enjoy mermaids as much as the next guy, but wanting to be part animal is quite suspect.
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal. Chasing goblins instead of the rational world. Get in the real world please. I don't believe our village is about to be disemboweled by spirits. Though, I supposed the lycans are paranormal so perhaps you can prove useful
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman. I was about to condemn you but you add fisherman to your occupation. This seems to make you less insane than others. I like fish, stick around wacko.
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd. A true town geek would make our village rich and not on the brink of exctintion. What have you done for us lately?
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her. Oh look! Another crazy person! Truly inspires suspicion. It could be a cover or maybe she is truly crazy.
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head. Well, that is just plain silly. I know little of the fruit you are milking and don't trust your odd habits. Would you prefer milk from your werewolf mama's teats?
I will hold my vote for later.
May the villagers win.

EDIT: fixed some italics and bolding

[mormegil]

I find it interesting that Malka and Calin seem eager to kill Gil and Wayne. They seem like easy targets and won't arouse too much suspicion if killed.


Fifth. Morm's wish to be rid of all the lunatics, even though they be innocent, is rather unnerving. More innocents is better than more dead innocents and three Wolves still left. I will definetly watch you more carefully.

Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning. Some must die, and inevitably innocents as well. I'm thinking of the future of this village, what would you rather have around, a woodwright or some head standing coconut milker who giggles far too often? A high quality smith that makes great armor and weapons or a miracle man that's a woman who cannot perform miracles because she's 'retired'.

See my point?

[Valier]

Well I must vote early today because I have a lovely batch of coconuts that need squeezing, this will take up my whole afternoon.(Giggle)

++Wayne


Well I just have to say I don't like wimps, or nerds or well most things besides lovely coconuts.(Giggle) The Goblin must go! (Giggle)

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Oh dear. Well, I'm afraid that I will not be able to get back on to vote at all today, so I must vote now.

I too am in favour of lynching those who tend towards being unknowns (Nilp, Gil and Wayne) for the longer we leave them alive, the longer we'll regret it. However, since there is already a vote cast for Wayne, I'll leave him alone for now. Gil's cries of his innocence have lead me to believe that he too is innocent. Best go with the one that has already provided "conclusive" evidence of his guilt:

++NILPAURION FELAGUND

I'm sorry if that's a random vote, but I'm afraid it's the best I can do.

[Cailín]

I find it interesting that Malka and Calin seem eager to kill Gil and Wayne. They seem like easy targets and won't arouse too much suspicion if killed.

That is exactly the reason why I would not like to kill them, Morm. Their deaths will tell us little and voting for any of them is not immediately suspicious. However, like you, I'm thinking what's in the interest of this village and I'm not going after someone just because he or she is not an easy target. If you are lynched toDay and found innocent, I'd be more annoyed with myself than if it is Wayne, even though that may sound rather harsh. Besides, you are able to provide us with far more evidence against you, so that's always good. ;)

Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning.

There's a word for that attitude. :p

--

We're still waiting to hear from Márcolië Lamen. (RL: I'll let you all know now I will be forced to vote within the next hour. Hey, it's Saturday night. Where do you think I'm heading?)

[Glirdan]

Well, we already have five votes.

Valier - 1 (Formendacil)
Formendacil - 1 (Wayne)
Nilpaurion - 2 (Nilp and Abercrombie)
Wayne - 1 (Valier)

Notice how Form voted Valier, Valier for Wayne and Wayne for Form? That seems highly suspicious to me. Do we have a possible trio here and they all let their hands sho early? Or is there maybe one or two Wolves hidden amongst that bunch? Or are all three innocent and caught in a web of doom? I highly doubt that all three are Wolves and out of all three, I find Form seems the least suspicious. What do you all have to say to this little bit of information?

[Aiwendil]

With a total of twenty villagers, three of whom are wolves, chances are good that at least one of those who has voted so far is a wolf.

I agree with Glirdan that the Wayne-Formendacil-Valier reciprocation is interesting, even if it does seem a clumsy move for a group of wolves.

With four people voted against already, I'm inclined to say that we should add, at most, only one or two more to the list. Then chances will be good that at least one wolf is among them, and people's voting records may begin to tell us something.

[Cailín]

As I said before, I will be forced to vote now... This will not come unexpected:

++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

I'm sorry if you are once again a misunderstood innocent, but you are the only one suspicious in my eyes right now. Your vote for Formendacil and your defensiveness doesn't sit right with me. Good luck, fellow villagers, and may you (and I) choose wisely.

[Kath]

Well now look at all those votes! I see what people are saying about a possible Wayne-Form-Valier trio, but that it seems a little too obvious. Mind you that could simply be a ploy to remove suspicion.

What I would suggest is not lynching Nilp. He is a suicidal maniac it's true, but rarely is he so when anything but an ordinary innocent. I'm not saying that those who voted for him already should be suspected because it's hard not to use such a gift as a suicidal voter when it provides such an easy vote.

Voting for Wayne is understandable, the reasons Cailin have given make sense. However, he has said more toDay than he does in 3 usually! And no matter what he is that's rare. So, perhaps keeping him alive a little longer might be an idea, just in case this increase in talking becomes more common.

Still, Wayne does say that he voted for Form because Form voted for Valier, which to me would suggest a link between Wayne and Valier rather than the three of them together. Loyalty among wolves perhaps?

At any rate, as per usual I'm suspicious of Sauce, but then anyone who tries to make themselves leader is a bad guy in my books. Aside from that, I'm not sure that looking at occupations is going to do us much good Garin, or avatars for that matter.

So I suppose Wayne, Valier and Sauce. But with very little reasoning and no sure feeling behind it either.

[mormegil]

++Valier

if for no other reason than the giggling and to get things moving a bit.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alas, my investigations of the crime scene, like those of Aiwendil, have revealed nothing of use. I remain surprised, however, that no one noticed anything suspicious around the time of Menel’s death.

I am also disappointed that so many here have shown such contempt for the laws which protect us and such eagerness to join the baying mob. It seems that my entreaties have been to little avail and that the lynch mob will now prevail. With little evidence gathered, to speak of, the most likely outcome is the death of an innocent or, worse still, one of the gifted among us.

All that I can do, it seems, is to use what skills I have to try to identify Wolfish behaviour from what has been said already. And, in that respect, today’s conversations have been of some use. Here are my thoughts:

mormegil: Despite his contempt for the laws of men (which troubles me) talks sense, particularly concerning those who seem to be picking on the easy targets.
Garin: Is playing his cards close to his chest. Worrying, and doubly so given that it is out of character.
Nilpaurion Felagund: Is a deluded suicidal. Makes an easy target for a Wolfish vote as he provides the reasoning himself, yet is unlikely to be lynched.
dancing spawn of ungoliant: Records the days events, but offers little analysis herself. But talks sense when she says that there should be more to this than random votes and claims of bad health.
The Saucepan Man: Is doing his best to try and sort out this mess. Seemingly a thankless task.
Aiwendil: Rejects the teachings of the law and thereofe, by definition, lawless. Confuses Vampires and Werewolves. A possible liability on a Werewolf hunt, but probably no Wolf himself.
AbercrombieOfRohan: When asked for evidence against those she accuses, she claims that there is none yet then goes on to try to supply some. When pressed, she goes on the offensive, voicing suspicion of the one pressing her (me) and an easy target (Gil). Later clears Gil when she sees another opportunity for a possible safe vote (Nilp). Worrying in the extreme.
Shelob: Seems to have lost hope already. Such pessimism is understandable, though, given our current circumstances. And it speaks of her possible innocence.
malkatoj: Is definitely confused. She claims to be a miracle man, when all can see that she is an old crone. More worryingly, when pressed, she too has directed her suspicions towards easy targets (Gil and Wayne).
Gil-Galad: Is scared and confused, understandably so given that many seem to be lining him up for the gallows already. I believe him innocent.
Glirdan: Has come up with a few crackpot theories between bouts of making little sense. Most likely the Cobbler.
Márcolië Lamen: Has she spoken yet?
The Guy Who Be Short: Is suspiciously quiet.
Formendacil: Voted with nothing to go on. But he explained why he had to do so and, for now, I believe him.
Cailín: Despite her delusions, she is an astute lass. But she has unusually, so far, offered little insightful analysis, preferring to take the easy option of voting for Wayne (despite admitting that his death will tell us little). She’s becoming quite a concern to me.
Kath: Fell into my trap by questioning my claim to be above reproach, a claim so silly as not to warrant a response.
WaynetheGoblin: Is unpredictable and unnerves me.
Naria: Has said nothing to sway my thoughts, one way or the other.
Valier: Is making even less sense than Glirdan. Has voted for an easy target without providing any reasoning.

My main worries at the moment concern those who seem to be picking on easy targets - the ones for whom it is little trouble to provide reasoning (without much thought) because of the way that they are and for whom a vote will arouse little suspicion as and when they are lynched and turn out innocent. So far, I would place the following in that category:

AbercrombieofRohan, malkatoj, Cailín and Valier.

I am loathe to join this lynch mob and cast a vote today. Yet, in the face of such determined resistance to the laws of this land, I feel that I have little choice if I wish to do what I can to prevent the lynching of an innocent and, hopefully, catch a Wolf into the bargain. There is not as much evidence as I would wish, but I believe that there is at least one Wolf in the four that I have identified above. My vote will most likely be cast, albeit reluctantly, for one of them.

[the guy who be short]

I, TGWBS, hereby formally declare suspicion of the following: Wayne, SpM, mormegil, Gil, Abercrombie.

I shall now list them in order of suspicion, giving my reasons:

Wayne - Enough evidence has been produced against him already. His vote for Formendacil was vindictive - Formendacil stated his inability to return toDay. A vote for somebody with no chance to defend themself seems a little too safe. And then, we have his belief that Formy is the Cobbler. Why vote for the cobbler?

Finally, look at his reason for voting:I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.What's so special about Valier, that a vote for her calls for the voter's lynching?

Gil - Why so defensive, and why so confusing. What's with the links? At the moment, I'm thinking he could be our cobbler, as are many others. So, while he is high on my list of potential enemies to the village, I am reluctant to lynch him.

Abercrombie - WHY MUST YOU PEOPLE PERSIST IN PERSECUTING THE POOR NUTTER?

mormegil - It's just this comment that I'm uneasy about:Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning. Some must die, and inevitably innocents as well. I'm thinking of the future of this village, what would you rather have around, a woodwright or some head standing coconut milker who giggles far too often?This disregard for innocence is simply concerning. And why the vote for Valier? He seems to vote for her based entirely on the ideals of eugenics.

SpM - I agree with him in principle. Cases should be built and considered. But his insistance that he himself should be at the centre of the judicial process is cause for concern. If he is a wolf, then trusting him would be horrendously dangerous.



That's all for people I find guilty. As for innocence, I support:

Glirdan - This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=443820&postcount=37) post is the most logical thing I've seen today.

Nilp - I'm not going to bother. It's obvious. Nilp is being himself. Expect my wrath to full upon ye, ye who vote for the mentally unstable. ;)

[Glirdan]

Well, there is only about three hours left to disscuss things. I'm torn between voting for Valier, Wayne and SpM.

Valier and Wayne I've already given my reasoning in this post:

Well, we already have five votes.

Valier - 1 (Formendacil)
Formendacil - 1 (Wayne)
Nilpaurion - 2 (Nilp and Abercrombie)
Wayne - 1 (Valier)

Notice how Form voted Valier, Valier for Wayne and Wayne for Form? That seems highly suspicious to me. Do we have a possible trio here and they all let their hands sho early? Or is there maybe one or two Wolves hidden amongst that bunch? Or are all three innocent and caught in a web of doom? I highly doubt that all three are Wolves and out of all three, I find Form seems the least suspicious. What do you all have to say to this little bit of information?


As for SpM, there's something not right sitting for me with him, however, I will dismiss this for the time being. My vote will more than likely be for either Valier or Wayne.

Now to adress a few things before I decide on whom to vote for.

SpM: Glirdan: Has come up with a few crackpot theories between bouts of making little sense. Most likely the Cobbler.

What do you mean "crackpot theories" and "making little sense"? All I've seen from you so far is badgering us about the law system of Gondor. Care to explain? I'm not attempting to attack you. I'm just trying to get a bearing on what the uneasy feeling is that I have about you.

TGWBS. I'm glad that you think that was logical and I thank you profusely for it.

[Garin]

I don't believe Márcolië Lamen has spoken as of yet. This makes me inclined to give Márcolië Lamen my vote, because non-participants offer nothing to the life of the village. However, sometimes this can't be helped and I hope everything is okay.
My post and Morm's idea to lynch the crazies was nearly a cross-post. Although...
Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning. Some must die, and inevitably innocents as well.
I understand his intent because they mirror mine I just think that it is a scary idea when put in the context of the real world and could get him into trouble. I'm tempted to call Morm, 'Uncle Joe' (as in Stalin) for the rest of the game. I won't mention the most obvious name because it is disrespectful to the 6 million.
However, I am inclined to vote for the giggling kitten. I will vote in 40 minutes.
Known innocents? I bet Sauce is because he always is and ends up getting killed by wolves, because his experience plays a threat.

[The Saucepan Man]

What do you mean "crackpot theories" and "making little sense"? Well I had to say something vaguely constructive about you. :p ;)

But, if you must know, I had in mind the ridiculous notion that I was trying to flush out the Seer merely by calling for evidence, and also this Formendacil - Wayne - Valier triumvirate idea that you have come up with. I really don't see what sense there would be in the Wolves agreeing beforehand to vote for each other and then doing so early on, before seeing how things were going. Their votes are more likely to be the result of Day 1 randomness than of a Wolfish plan. Sure enough, one of them may well be a Wolf, or even two, but I don't see how this triumvirate idea points towards that.

Well, the time has come for me to cast my vote, as I must go and study before taking to my bed. If we must resort to this barbaric method of finding our cuplrits, I would prefer for the field to be as open as possible, particularly with so many votes still to come.

For her rather forceful reaction to my pressing her for evidence and for naming easy targets before going on to cast what I consider to be a "safe" vote (at least for today) for someone else, I will cast my vote for:

++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN

though it pains me to participate in such a rudimentary judicial process.

[the guy who be short]

Latest thoughts:

1) Concerning voting for Valier. I would like an explanation from mormegil and Garin. There are plenty of ideas floating around. Why vote for somebody based on their role?

2) SpM redeems himself a little in my eyes both with his vote, and his claim that his suggestion of putting himself about the law was "bait." Though bait for what, I don't know. Care to extrapolate?

[Garin]

1) Concerning voting for Valier. I would like an explanation from mormegil and Garin. There are plenty of ideas floating around. Why vote for somebody based on their role?
This is as close as I can come to 'random' but slightly informed vote. Playing ones' role is admirable and adds color but can also be used as cover. I hope we lynch a wolf or the cobbler but that is obvious. Valier acts cute and silly but this could be her sheep's clothing.
I am going to flip a coin in 5 minutes and decide between Val and Aber.

[the guy who be short]

Quite frankly, Garin, that's a terrible reason. There are many people here playing roles, and to single Valier out - when she already has votes - seems a wolvish thing to do. Not to mention the fact that there are several logical theories floating about, meaning there's no reason to go on intuition or choose randomly.

As for myself, I will vote for

++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN

I was suspicious before, but SpM's comments distilled that suspicion.

[Aiwendil]

Well, those with votes so far are:

Valier
Formendacil
Nilpaurion
Wayne
Abercrombie

I think it would be wise not to add any more people to that list - this is enough that chances are slightly better than 50% that a wolf is one of those accused.

I, therefore, shall vote for one of them. I cannot really see much evidence pointing to any of them in particular, save perhaps for the few things SpM has noted about Abercrombie. I will hold off a bit longer, then, and make sure we aren't going to get into a double-lynch situation ere I vote.

[Garin]

Well, I am slightly inclined towards Abercrombie but the coin tells me to vote for Valier. If this turns out to be wrong you can lynch the coin.
++Valier

[mormegil]

1) Concerning voting for Valier. I would like an explanation from mormegil and Garin. There are plenty of ideas floating around. Why vote for somebody based on their role?

Yes there are plenty of ideas floating around one of which was mine. I am not voting for based on her role. Read more carefully what I write and I believe you will understand. Let me explain more openly. There are those who, if innocent, can contribute greatly to our village and its success in this and future endeavors. Coincidentally many of those are alligned with professions that are...well...actually professions and therefore I narrowed my search thusly. Valier hasn't spoken much and seems content to hide behind her giggling. Since there isn't much, if any, solid evidence today I figure we could remove somebody who milks coconuts and see what comes of it.

And SpM you said it yourself I hold in contempt the laws of men but I do answer to a higher law...the law of elves I am not under servitude nor owe alliegence to Gondor nor her laws. Though I have respect for your profession.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm finally back, sorry it took so long, but I just couldn't decide whether to match the flower arrangement to Menel's light brown hair or his bloodstained body.

Now, there has been a lot of talk of Wayne, Gil and Valier. Perhaps we should agree on a policy, how to treat villagers who are confusing and don't contribute as much as we should like so we didn't have to go it through every time. :rolleyes:
Maybe we should think what are the pros and cons of lynching one of them? Well, if they are wolves, it's quite obvious that it benefits us, but let's take a look at the option that they aren't.

Pros: We don't have to ponder their identities later and we can concentrate on people who have talked more i.e. left more clues. Also, as everybody probably knows, they are easy targets, so it should be interesting to analyze the voting next day, and see if people really had a reason to go against them or did they just go with the majority hoping they could blend in.

Cons: We lose an innocent vote.

If you have something else to add to the list, please share your thoughts.


Well, I am slightly inclined towards Abercrombie but the coin tells me to vote for Valier Ahem, are you a truffle hunter or a gambler? Just asking because I think it's a bit odd to decide whether someone will live or die by tossing a coin, especially if you're more inclined to vote the other one.

But what can we say about Abercrombie?

Well, many of seems to be in a rather light mood, cracking jokes and accusing each other with no reasons at all, but her actions are just a bit too weird for my liking. First she said that Formendacil's behaviour wasn't unusual, but then she randomly accuses him, Aiwendil and Gil demanding an explanation from them. However, after that she says that there is no evidence against them while pulling arguments "out of thin air". And then she says she doesn't really suspect Formendacil.
Umm, what!? Seems quite Cobblerish, but if Abercrombie were the Cobbler, I assume she'd be more subtle. But then again, you can never know.
++NILPAURION FELAGUND

I'm sorry if that's a random vote, but I'm afraid it's the best I can do.If your best is to vote for someone who said he won't be here during the rest of the Day and who is a safe vote because the odds are that he won't be lynched today, I'd like to know what is your worst. Besides, you said you didn't want to vote for Wayne because he already had one vote. Why did you then want to vote for Nilp although he, too, had one vote? Young lady, you really are confusing me!

To honest, I'm really unsure whom I should vote for and alas, I have to vote in a few minutes or then I can't vote at all.

[the guy who be short]

Fair enough, mormegil. Though you could have been less mystic about it; we have people for that in this village, you know.

[the guy who be short]

For the record:

Valier - 3 (Formendacil, mormegil, Garin)
Formendacil - 1 (Wayne)
Nilpaurion - 2 (Nilp, Abercrombie)
Wayne - 2 (Valier, Cailin)
Abercrombie - 2 (SpM, TGWBS)

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Okay, so the votes thus far are:

Formendacil -> Valier
Wayne -> Formendacil
Nilp -> Nilp
Valier -> Wayne (heh, an odd way to thank Wayne for "defending" her)
Abercrombie -> Nilp
Cailín -> Wayne
mormegil -> Valier
Saucy -> Abercrombie
TGWBS -> Abercrombie
Garin -> Valier


Well, I'll make a tie between Abercrombie and Valier. Let's see how others react to that.

++Abercrombie

Thank you, sorry and good-bye.

[Shelob]

Gah, about an hour left to vote...well, I guess that's what I get for going to a bookstore...

As it stands I don't really see the votes for Valier (who, I believe, currently has the most votes). I find her giggling distracting and a little annoying, but beyond that there's no reason I can see for voting for her, and in itself that's no reason.

Abercrombie I can see a little more reasoning behind. Yet somehow I imagine that were she a wolf she'd act less like one. Especially when we don't really have anything on which to base an accusation or assumption.


For myself I'm disinclined to trust Garin, something about him isn't sitting right with me. Perhaps it's that he'd prefer to vote for one person, but votes for another on nothing but chance.

I'm rather loath to add another name to our list of those with votes against them. Then again, I'd rather not tie up the voting. I figure I'll review things then come back at least to vote.

[Aiwendil]

I also do not understand why Valier has recieved so many votes.

At the moment it's tied 'twixt Valier and Abercrombie. I can't say I see much reason to think that either is a wolf, but then (it being early) I don't have much reason to think that anyone in particular is a wolf. As I indicated before, I am very slightly inclined to think Abercrombie more likely to be guilty. Therefore:

++AbercrombieofRohan

[Glirdan]

I'm really trying to figure out whom to vote for. There is enough evidence pointing towards Crombie. And then there's Valier, the posssible Wolf out of the three that have voted for each other earlier. However, SpM is still not sitting right with me. So as you see, I'm quite befuddled. I'll be back later in order to vote.

[Kath]

Aiwendil, why are you so concerned that we add no more people to list of those with votes? Yes there is a chance that one of the wolves is in there, but it is good to spread the votes rather than bandwagon, because the latter means that anyone who got involved in one is pretty much automatically suspected over the next few Days.

Ok, I have a while, let's do the boring bit:
morm:
Wonders if Gil is the Cobbler and is trying to make people concentrate on him so the wolves are ignored. (Fair point but Gil often complains about the fact that he dies early, I should say it was more of the same rather than any plan.)
Realises that Form is doing something similar, but decides he is innocent. (Odd because via the same reasoning he gets two different views.)
Changes view of Gil, now thinking him just a confusing innocent. (Sudden swerve there.)
Some suspicion of malka, though I suspect that was done in jest.
Suspicious of malka and Cailin for their desire to kill Gil or Wayne (the latter later refuted this claim) and then mentions that he would be for killing those innocents that don't contribute a great deal, which would include Wayne. (A bit contradictory as well as mistaken.)
Votes for Valier 'because of the giggling' and to stir things up. (Never mentioned her by name before but considers her useless to the village on basis of occupation.)
Later claims this is not based on role but rather because those with roles of a useful nature are more likely to be useful to the village. (Still seems based on role to me.)

Garin:
Did an analysis based on occupations. More suspected than given benefit of the doubt. (Whole post was pretty pointless as those were chosen before roles were given out).
Inclined to vote for Marcolie because she's not spoken yet.
Not keen on morm because his ideas are so bleak, yet admits his ideas are the same. (Very odd, contradictory and insulting.)
Feels that SpM is innocent 'because he always is'. (Dangerous reasoning.)
Thinks roles may be a good cover for wolvishness and will vote for Crombie or Valier, presumably based on theirs. (Again, occupations chosen before roles announced.)
Flipped a coin and voted for Valier, even though he wants to vote for Crombie.

Nilp:
Fake argument between 3 wolves followed by a vote for himself. (Usual tactics.)
Asks the village not to vote for spawn. (But we know why that is ;) )

spawn:
Analyses everyone.
Looks at the pros and cons of lynching Wayne, Gil or Valier.
Shows that Crombie has been flipflopping around between suspicions, wonders if she is perhaps the Cobbler, but thinks she is too smart to show herself up like that. (Valid points, though the role could be freaking Crombie out and making her act out of character.)
Votes Crombie, seemingly in order to cause a double lynch! (Very odd, why do that by choice? Although, perhaps in the hope that we will see the hand of a wolf in breaking it one way or the other.)

And now I'm out of time, that look longer than anticipated. If still alive tomorrow I'll continue. As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive.

++ABERCROMBIE OF ROHAN

And goodbye.

[Shelob]

So it's now four for Abercrombie while Valier has just the three...

I just don't really see either of them as being wolves. I imagine that there's little chance of Abercrombie not being lynched now, as I'm pretty sure that most the votes which are going to be in are in.

I don't want to bandwagon (vote for Aber) and I don't want to tie it (vote for Valier) so I'm just going to vote for the person I have the worst feeling for right now, and that's still

++Garin

It probably won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie.


[Edit: the times don't look it, but I did kinda cross post this with Kath. I'd seen that she posted but I hadn't seen what, so her vote for Abers wasn't taken into consideration regarding my talk of the vote becoming tied.]

[Aiwendil]

Kath wrote:
Aiwendil, why are you so concerned that we add no more people to list of those with votes? Yes there is a chance that one of the wolves is in there, but it is good to spread the votes rather than bandwagon, because the latter means that anyone who got involved in one is pretty much automatically suspected over the next few Days.

Well, it seems to me that what we want from the voting on the first day is primarily information. Voting records are, I think, the most reliable way of spotting wolves (not that they're all that reliable, mind you, but in my opinion they're the best tool we've got). So it seems to me that on Day 1 we want:

1. Enough names in the pool that we have a good chance of having a wolf among them.
2. Few enough names that the wolves do not have many "safe vote" options and that they cannot lightly go for the ploy of voting for another wolf.

So, by my hasty estimates, the optimal number of names for the first day is, for a group of twenty, about five or six.

That's all rather speculative, of course.

[mormegil]

So Kath does some analysis and seems fairly convinced of things, then goes and says 'well I have no ideas of my own so I'll follow everybody else and vote abercrombie'. Interesting! I suggest we look closely at her tomorrow. If you must continue to think that I voted on roles, so be it, however read what I have stated before and I think my logic is sound.

I agree with Aiwendil about having a decent size pool to vote from and I see him as trying to help the village out. I could always change my opinion of him based on future actions but currently he seems genuine.

[malkatoj]

Oh, well I made it back in time for a vote--panicked for a minute.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN

for reasons I explained earlier. Sorry for the short post, but I must be off.

[Garin]

Ahem, are you a truffle hunter or a gambler? Just asking because I think it's a bit odd to decide whether someone will live or die by tossing a coin, especially if you're more inclined to vote the other one.
Unfortunately we haven't rectractable votes and shouldn't edit our posts to change our initial intentions. Once I said I would flip a coin I was inclined to do so out of honesty. Perhaps, the coin betrayed me but perhaps it will turn true. I was just doing what I said I would do, for the sake of the village. If I had lied, that also would be used against me. We never know on the first day. I saw two possible wolves and flipped on it. If I am wrong, I can blame the coin.
Yes, I am also a gambler. See my profile.

[Glirdan]

Ok, I've come to a desicion. My vote is

++Saucepan Man

Simply because something about him is not sitting right with me. I also don't want to be a part of a bandwagon and I don't want to cause a double lynch. So, I'm out. I'm so nervous that I'm going to go crazy again. I'm going to go have my medication and then to bed.

[Naria]

Hope I'm not late!! I will vote for Nilp again.

Sorry if you're an ordo....you just too crazzzy!! :D


++Nilp

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Shall I pull a Shelob? I'm innocent I tell you! Innocent! Fine though, whatever.

What you seem not to understand is that the "accusations" I provided were only in response to SPM's pushing. I do not suspect him, nor do I truly suspect anyone that I've mentioned and even voted for. Yes, I voted a safe vote because I thought that I should vote for someone who was not likely to be lynched because I had not read the thread as well as I should have and I still don't have time to go back and re-read. I did not want an innocent to be lynched, but I knew that suspicions would be upon me if I did not vote at all. I still don't want to be lynched because you'll be one innocent down, but it seems my doom has been decided for me. Look towards those like Garin who have jumped on the bandwagon.

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry to be late, I got distracted. :( I'll review the votes, then post a death scene.

[Meneltarmacil]

The villagers gathered together. It was decided that AbercrombieOfRohan would die this day.

"Don't do it! It wasn't a fair trial!" shouted The Saucepan Man.

"Don't kill her!" Nilpaurion Felagund added. "I'm the wolf! Lynch me!"

He climbed to the top of the gallows, eager to be hung from them. The villagers, however, ignored him.

It took a while to locate the mysterious Abercrombie in the woods, as very little was known of her. However, the villagers eventually found her.

"You won't kill me!" she said, and climbed a tree.

Aiwendil the woodwright, however, pulled out a large axe and started chopping it down.

"Stop! Abercrombie shouted. "I'm innocent! Don't do this to me!"

At that moment, however, the tree fell to the ground, crushing her. The villagers cheered... until they realized that she hadn't transformed at all.

While Formendacil recorded the events in the village chronicles and malkatoj once again searched the body for cash, The Saucepan Man shook his head at the results of the mob's actions.

An innocent villager had been lynched.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Aiwendil- Old woodwright
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 15

It is now Night 2. Villagers, stop posting. Wolves may PM, Ranger and Hunter may not. I need names from the Wolves, Seer, Ranger, and Hunter.

[Farael]

It was a long night in the village and no-one got much sleep. Thirteen innocents cowered in their beds. An intrepid ranger crouched outside the door of one of such innocents, ready to risk his life to protect him. A brave hunter stalked one of his suspects, hoping to see him turn into a wolf and get a chance to slain him. Yet, unseen by all, the three wolves met to plan their nightly murder.

This night, even the best efforts of the Ranger and Hunter were futile. As the villagers met the following morning, they noticed one of them was missing.

“It’s me!! I’m dead at last!!” said Nilpaurion Felagund. Glirdan added that the voices in his head agreed with Nilp. Formendacil noted that it was yet to be recorded a case of a dead person being able to inform others of his death after having passed away. Malkatoj argued that he(she) had performed another miracle, yet Kath settled the discussion by saying that in her life-long investigation of the paranormal she had seen too many nutcases and too few dead people talking about their deaths.

“Well, let’s kill him if so he wishes! He is useless anyway!” screamed Mormegil.

“That is completely out of the question, it would be premeditated murder” answered The Saucepan Man and the whole village sunk into a yelling match.

The yelling might have lasted until nightfall if, in a sudden bout of giggles, Valier had not stepped away from the screams only to hear Shelob comment “I might have not been in this village for too long, but aren’t we missing our woodwright?”

Dreading what they may find, the villagers made their way to Aiwendil’s house. The first thing they noted was that the house no longer stood where it had. In its place there was the trunk of a massive tree and rubble. Not even Valier managed a giggle this time. A valiant effort to hopefully save the woodwright was conducted by The Guy Who Be Short, Garin and his pigs yet the tree trunk was too heavy to lift and it had obviously fallen right on Aiwendil’s room. “The dolphins say he was mercifully sleeping before he got crushed,” Said Naria “The sharks talk about a bloody death, but they always do”

Gil-Galad approached the trunk, amused by two lines at a 90 degree angle from each other, only to notice that it was actually an L and there was a message written on the fallen tree.

“POOR WOODWRIGHT, SOUNDLY ASLEEP AFTER DOING OUR WORK EASYER YESTERDAY. HE SURELY NOT EXPECTED US TO COME AFTER HIM AFTER SUCH FAVOUR. TOO BAD, WE WERE LOOKING FORWARD TO SOME FIGHTING.

-THE WEREWOLVES.”

An innocent villager has been killed by the werewolves.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house.

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 14

It is now Day 2. Ranger and Hunter may PM each other, wolves may not. Villagers, you may talk your way into another lynching.

[Kath]

Wow. I'm never here on time!

This will be short but reading through from yesterday I wanted to put you straight on something morm.

So Kath does some analysis and seems fairly convinced of things, then goes and says 'well I have no ideas of my own so I'll follow everybody else and vote abercrombie'. Interesting! I suggest we look closely at her tomorrow.
Nope. Kath didn't get as far through the analysis as she wanted. Because of this she did not want to vote for anyone she had found suspicious so far, as analysing further down the list might produce someone she really thought suspicious. As far as she had got she found spawn the most innocent looking and decided to go with her ideas.

If you feel you must pursue this then feel free.

Hopefully I'll be back a little later but I might not post again til tomorrow.

[Valier]

An Ode to Aiwendil:

I've got a lovely bunch of coconut, Doodle doo. There they are standing in a row, ripe ones, raw ones, ones as big as your head......


I was thoroughly upset with Aiwendil yesterday for cutting down one of my precious coconut trees, and killing innocent Crombie in the process...But for him to get killed in the night by a pack of raving werewolves, well that's just (sniff) sad!

So I will try to put aside the giggles (Giggle). We should put our heads together like coconuts and find us some furry terrorists.(Giggle) oops sorry! :D

[Gil-Galad]

now i am seriously doubting the law... no offence of course Saucey-man



(( sorry, yesterday i was gone all day helping my brother move and the most of the day my interent was down))

[The Saucepan Man]

now i am seriously doubting the law...On the contrary, it is precisely because the village resorted to a lynch mob mentality, rather than applying the rigorous tenets of the law, that an innocent villager died yesterday. I counselled against it, but to no avail.

I rue my own part in Abercrombie's death bitterly, as voting to kill one of our number on such thin evidence goes against all that I have been taught. But little did I expect her to attract so many votes after I had cast my own vote for her.

Ah well, perhaps the voting record will be of some use. here it is:

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

Did not vote: Márcolië Lamen and Gil-Galad.

Make of it what you will. I will be back later with my own thoughts.

[Cailín]

Poor Aiwendil. And Crombie. Two innocent villagers already lost…

I more or less understand why there was wagoning against Crombie yesterDay, and yet I feel I have to point something out. Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).

Um, yeah, aside from mildly attacking Mormegil, here follows a brief voting analysis:

Formendacil > Valier
WayneTheGoblin > Formendacil
Nilpaurion > Nilpaurion
Valier > WayneTheGoblin
Abercrombie > Nilpaurion
Cailín > WayneTheGoblin
mormegil > Valier
The Saucepan Man > Abercrombie
TGWBS > Abercrombie
Garin > Valier
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant > Abercrombie
Aiwendil > Abercrombie
Kath > Abercrombie
Shelob > Garin
Malkatoj > WayneTheGoblin
Glirdan > The Saucepan Man
Naria > Nilpaurion

Aiwendil broke the tie in favour of Abercrombie (or not really in favour I suppose), which would normally be suspicious, yet the wolves chose to kill him anyway. That is rather odd. Normally, the people who gather many votes on Day 1 are all innocents, but I’m not sure whether Valier was not a really lucky guess.
Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish. For now. Naria voted for Nilpaurion, which is a safe vote I suppose, especially at that time, so we should definitely look into that. Further, I am now going to check Aiwendil's posts to see if there was any other reason for the wolves to kill him so early, other than that he might very well have become a threat later on.

Oh I am about to cross-post with Saucy, so you'd better check his sum-up of the votes: it is much more detailed.

[Cailín]

Aiwendil's posts:

Mostly it’s just guessing and reasoning and waiting for evidence. He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought Abercrombie nor Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in Saucy's reasoning. He thought Glirdan’s Form – Wayne – Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available. I cannot think of anything else, please point it out if I have missed anything.

Well, I’m getting quite sleepy by now. I hope you will all manage without me until tomorrow morning (that is – morning in my world under the water).

I shall try to come up with some theories when I feel less hazy again.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few things that occur to me from the things said and the votes cast yesterday.

Following my own vote for Abercrombie, there were four votes for her in relatively quick succession. Of those still living, these votes were cast by TGWBS, dancing spawn and Kath. Spawn brought her level with Valier, while Kath sealed her fate (although there were still up to 6 votes still to be cast at that stage). Could there be a Wolf there? I doubt a Wolf would vote for an innocent when it looked like she was going to die (and be revealed as innocent), which would point more towards TGWBS and spawn, although I have little other reason to suspect either of them at present.

If Valier turns out to be a Wolf, then Kath's vote for Abercrombie will start to look very suspicious.

There were a few votes which might be described as "throwaway" votes at the end there. At the time cast, the votes of Shelob, Glirdan and Naria were unlikely to result in the death of anyone, and (assuming that there was no Wolf in danger) would have been "safe" votes for Wolves. Possibly even Wolf on Wolf votes (although that obviously does not apply as far as Glirdan's vote is concerned ;) ).

Valier and Naria both voted with little or no explanation. Valier's vote for Wayne was one which would be quite easy to explain if he died and turned out to be innocent, while Naria's was a safe "throwaway" vote. I am not sure how much store to set by this, though, as I would expect the Wolves to go out of their way to justify their votes.

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

There was some discussion yesterday concerning what we should do about those who arouse suspicion by their very nature, but who contribute little to our discussions. I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

Finally, for now, a response to TGWBS' question:


SpM redeems himself a little in my eyes both with his vote, and his claim that his suggestion of putting himself about the law was "bait." Though bait for what, I don't know. Care to extrapolate?I deliberately asserted that I was above suspicion, knowing that it was a ridiculous thing to say, so ridiculous in fact that most people would just ignore it. My thought was that only those who were looking for some reason to cast suspicion on me would pick up on it. Since I know that I am innocent, that would suggest possible Wolfish behaviour to me. A few people commented on it, but only Kath made something of an issue of it (and, indeed, it seems to have led her to cast suspicion on me). It is not much, I accept, and I would not vote for her solely based on that, but it might mean something in the days to come.

[The Saucepan Man]

I think [Aiwendil] was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.I think this the most likely explanation.

It is possibsle that it was a clumsy attempt to frame Valier, Formendacil and/or Wayne, given that he expressed interest in Glirdan's crazy triumvirate theory. But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

[Glirdan]

Alas!! Those voices in my head were trying to tell me someone was missing!! To bad they were saying it was Nilp who the Wolves attacked. Maybe I should stop listening to those voices. They're starting to creep me out. And out woodwright is dead!! This is indeed a sad Day. Although I didn't quite like Aiwendil, he was one whom I never suspected. We need to find these tortoises...I mean Woles quickly!!

I deliberately asserted that I was above suspicion, knowing that it was a ridiculous thing to say, so ridiculous in fact that most people would just ignore it. My thought was that only those who were looking for some reason to cast suspicion on me would pick up on it. Since I know that I am innocent, that would suggest possible Wolfish behaviour to me. A few people commented on it, but only Kath made something of an issue of it (and, indeed, it seems to have led her to cast suspicion on me). It is not much, I accept, and I would not vote for her solely based on that, but it might mean something in the days to come.

Well SpM, I must say that that was a smart and daring move and that I did question it when I first saw it. However, you could very well being pulling a double bluff on us and I wouldn't put it past you to do that. You're definetly smart enough to pull it off. That just made me even more uneasy about you.

I must agree with Cailin's theory on why the Wolves attacked Aiwendil. He was smart and also not under suspicion. The perfect target. By attacking him, they left us no clues pointing towards anyone in particular and leaving us back at square one.

I'm going to go back and scan through some of the post's left by the deceased. I shall be back later.

*RL Comment* If I'm not back, it's because I got kicked off the computer and I won't be posting much for the next few Days because I go back to school starting tommorrow. Don't take my absence as suspicious. *RL Comment Ended*

[Shelob]

But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

The most obvious reason "why not", and the one you're "Hmmm" seems to favour, would be that they were wolves. Doesn't that seem overly perfect and nice? It's far more likely that if this were an attempt to frame Valier/Form/Wayne then killing Glirdan or Kath would also draw attention to a real wolf. It seems to me that with this kill they'd either want to follow through on hints/suspicions of a gifted villager or kill someone who would get us looking in the wrong direction.

Assuming that that's the case we can probably rule out that the wolves thought they'd found a gifted in Aiwendil. Which means they're Probably* trying to send us in the wrong direction. If they chose the Valier/Form/Wyane trio to cast suspicion on then clearly killing someone who seemed to agree with it would be a good way to cast said suspicion. However if they also killed someone who had a real wolf in their suspicions, or someone with whom a real wolf has alligned themselves killing that person would also bring into the spotlight the real wolf they're associated with. Aiwendil was probably just misfortunate enough to be in a position where the wolves could kill him without putting any of their number in danger. The safest kill which still accomplished something.

(*It's a matter of the Bluff/Double Bluff, personally I doubt it's worth it for them to put any of their number in danger so early but since it's possible we shouldn't discount it completely)

[The Saucepan Man]

However, you could very well being pulling a double bluff on us and I wouldn't put it past you to do that.How could it work as a double bluff? It hardly works as the single bluff that I intended it to be. :rolleyes:

[Valier]

There was some discussion yesterday concerning what we should do about those who arouse suspicion by their very nature, but who contribute little to our discussions. I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

I totally disagree on your "Policy" some of us are not as anylitical as others and the only time votes are validated is if the person killed is a wolf. Other than that reasons for voting are just feelings one gets from reading others posts and from the position they are in. I thought in this game that everyone had picked fun occupations and it would be more laid back..I was wrong! The only reason any Ordo would vote for someone was because they thought they were a wolf, some times giving a reason why is no better than saying nothing.

[The Saucepan Man]

The most obvious reason "why not", and the one you're "Hmmm" seems to favour, would be that they were wolves. Doesn't that seem overly perfect and nice?Quite possibly. But it is interesting how Glirdan put forward this theory at a time when Formendacil, Valier and Wayne each had one vote and only two other votes had been cast. Wayne and Valier go on to garner quite a few votes. And then, overnight, one of those who saw some attraction in the theory gets killed.

[The Saucepan Man]

I totally disagree on your "Policy" some of us are not as anylitical as others and the only time votes are validated is if the person killed is a wolf ... The only reason any Ordo would vote for someone was because they thought they were a wolf, some times giving a reason why is no better than saying nothing.The purpose of my proposed "Policy" was actually to try to prevent those who are not as analytical as others being lynched for that reason alone. But I don't think that it is unreasonable to ask that people give some kind of reasoning for their votes. It is helpful to see how others are thinking. It doesn't have to be a detailed analysis. But something is better than nothing.

[Shelob]

But it is interesting how Glirdan put forward this theory at a time when Formendacil, Valier and Wayne each had one vote and only two other votes had been cast.

Um, not that I can see. The timing doesn't really play into it so far as I can tell. Glirdan would have made the comment when he thought of it, and it was probably the fact that, with so few votes, the votes for Form, Valier and Wayne formed a noticable triangle that made him think of it. That fact in itself is rather interesting, but when we'd so little to go on the more interesting aspect of it would be the timing and reasons for the votes. Even that couldn't tell us a whole lot even, but perhaps more than the timing of the comment would.

[Valier]

I do agree SPM that players should give some reason even if it is that their vote is rushed, But I don't like the part about a vote or reasons for a vote have to be valid because we would only find out that there reason was valid if they voted correctly and lynched a wolf. With saying that I think we should just hope against hope that players come up with some reason. On with the game! (Giggle)

[The Saucepan Man]

Um, not that I can see. The timing doesn't really play into it so far as I can tell.At that time, quite a bit of suspicion had already been cast in Wayne's direction, if not towards Valier. My point is that it's possible Glirdan, if he is a Wolf, has subtly been trying to direct the voting towards one or more of these three without actually voting for any of them himself. Another point to note is that he said that he would probably not be voting for me but rather for one of his other suspects (Valier or Wayne) - but then ended up voting for me. A vote which I have already noted might be seen as a "safe" vote for a Wolf to cast.

I admit that it's not much by itself, but it's something to add to the pot.

But I don't like the part about a vote or reasons for a vote have to be valid because we would only find out that there reason was valid if they voted correctly and lynched a wolf.Ah, I get your meaning and it's a fair point. By "valid", I meant something with some kind of substance to it - something more, for example, than just voting for someone because of the way they are behaving when they always act like that, or voting for someone based on their occupation.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, well. I'm still alive. Cool! :cool:

Well, first, let's question a few answers, and vice-versa:

Finally, are these Bethiril and Narvi perhaps codenames? Should we jumble them, rearrange them and propose some wacked theory concerning their real identities? (Cai)So far as I can recall, of all the people who has ever played WW, only CoD, Fordim, Aman, Mithalwen, Saurreg, Perks, and Esgal may have an idea who Bethiril or Narvi are. But they're not here, so there. :p

Nilp - I'm not going to bother. It's obvious. Nilp is being himself. Expect my wrath to full upon ye, ye who vote for the mentally unstable. ;) (mäuschen der sein kurz)Why? Do you feel sympathy for this perpetual (and Infamous) Ordo? (We've both been Shiriffs, yes, but a Shiriff is just an Ordo with an Ordo buddy.) Or . . . something else?

NIGHT 2's death has already been analysed adequately (to me, at least) by Cailín. Hmmm, DAY 1 voting patterns. Interesting how the Abercrombie bandwagon was formed in such a short amount of time. Sauce started the whole thing, but daga'y was the first to declare his wrath upon her. Problem is, so far I trust most of the members of the said bandwaggon. Problem with lynching innocents is that the lynch mob could be innocent themselves.

But what about the other, smaller, failed bandwaggons? Hmmm, must go French class now; I'm terribly late. Au revoir!

And don't worry, there's no sugar!

No, wait, I meant I'll be back later.

[Márcolië Lamen]

*runs in panting*

Wow, werewolves, is that what I heard? I was off working on the gospel of the flying spaghetti monster, and unable to make it on here, sorry (read for rl: my computer was broken and I had no access to the internet for 2 days)

Wow, I've been trying to catch up, because even missing a bit makes it hard to return to.

I really have no ideas now, trying to follow the stories of what's happened vary so much.

Of course everyone part of a bandwagon draws suspision, as does those who don't vote, or vote randomly. So basically we're all suspicious.

The one thing that is seeming to be odd to me now is that the one who broke the tie causing the death of an innocent was also killed. That seems like there must be a reason. To me seems like may be trying to make us suspect the Form – Wayne – Valier wolf triangle. Which leads me to trying to figure out who would benefit most from that. Unless its a double bluff. It looks like its also trying to cast suspision on Glirdan mainly. Which still makes me question, who would try to get that suspision.

At the momement Glirdan is the name which stands out most, but as one which someone is trying to hide behind.

I'm sure it'd be more useful for me to have been here rather than just listening to the story, but as the circumstances has left us we must deal, from both sides. Sorry again for the issue.

-Marcolie

[mormegil]

Interesting! I seem to be agreeing with SpM. That is unusual. His analysis seems fair and I agree. My suspicion of Glidan has increased and in post 90 some things strike me as odd. He seems a bit over dramatic at the death of Aiwendil, which is a blow to our village. He also seems to be purposefully confusing but not to an extreme.

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

This is one point where I agree completely. It raised some red flags in my mind to do such an analysis yesterday and seem to suspect me and others but then simply follow Spawn and vote at a crucial time thus sealing the fate. Today she seemed worried about how I brought that up yesterday and immediately went to explain it. Seems a bit defensive to me.

Valier seems oddly serious today after getting some suspicion cast on her. I still think I will be looking her way today. Also, she seemed unwilling to listen to SpM's logical 'Policy'.

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And after, this I won't be back, sorry. If Eru hadn't changed the shape of Ambar maybe I wouldn't have these timezone problems. Curse you, Tar-Calion! :mad:

I've been chewing on the previous DAY's voting records, and this is the only thing that approximates an analysis that I've come up with. Right now, I find myself suspicious of (in order):

malka, and her vote for Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie?

Garin, and his vote for Valier. Yet another case of pushing for a tie? Although . . . there were still a lot of votes at that time.

Glirdan, and his vote for SpM. Well, it seemed pretty useless.

Well, my vote for today is:

++malkatoj

Ugh, I feel utterly useless. :(

[Garin]

Well, I don't feel we are closer to finding a wolf. The first day is random but the wolves' choice should be telling. I'm not sure what it tells. I agree with others that those who made isolated votes should be watched closely. Votes late and unexplained are even more suspicious than votes for the innocent. I am tempted to redeem my vote for Valier, if only to be consistent. There are others that seem wolvish, but perhaps I should just go down my list.
It has been mentioned that I picked apart occupations that were chosen prior to roles being given out by the mod. Well, we have nothing to go on during the first day, and I was really aiming at wolvish personalities. Remember, role-playing can shield a person. I mentioned I have no social manners in my occupation just to cover my behind and protect myself regardless and prior to my role. You see, I have had litttle luck on other islands. It is a good cover to make excuses for odd behaviour and it pays off if one of you becomes a werewolf. Nonetheless, I chose a noble career with which I collect quite a purse and plus have pigs that can sniff out lycans as well as they find fungi, unfortunately they are still nervous and have told me little.

[the guy who be short]

Just registering my presence and showing this:

Here is a list of votes in order. The three rows are "vote for," "vote by"
and "total votes."

Valier - Formen (Valier - 1)
Formen - Wayne (Valier - 1; Formen - 1)
Nilp - Nilp (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 1)
Wayne - Valier (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 1; Wayne - 1)
Nilp - Abercrombie (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 1)
Wayne - Cailin (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2)
Valier - Morm (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2)
Abercrombie - SpM (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie
- 1)
Abercrombie - TGWBS (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 2)
Valier - Garin (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie -
2)
Abercrombie - Spawn (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 3)
Abercrombie - Aiwendil (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 4)
Abercrombie - Kath (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie
- 5)
Garin - Shelob (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie -
5; Garin - 1)
Wayne - malkatoj (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie -
5; Garin - 1)
SpM - Glirdan (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie - 5;
Garin - 1; SpM - 1)
Nilp - Naria (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 3; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie - 5;
Garin - 1; SpM - 1)

Theories later, when I have time...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

This is one point where I agree completely. It raised some red flags in my mind to do such an analysis yesterday and seem to suspect me and others but then simply follow Spawn and vote at a crucial time thus sealing the fate. Today she seemed worried about how I brought that up yesterday and immediately went to explain it. Seems a bit defensive to me.
It raised red flags in my mind, too.

If you feel you must pursue this then feel free.
Then I shall take a moment to analyze Kath's behaviour, because it has made me rather uneasy.

#11 - Kath makes an appearance, but doesn't really say anything else than on Day 1, we randomly accuse people, but doesn't do it herself because it's too quiet for her.

#13 - Says that reasoned accusations aren't helpful yet, some suspicion towards the legal system and Saucy.

However, it's really Kath's post #76 that made me say "huh?".

"[Spawn] votes Crombie, seemingly in order to cause a double lynch!" ~Kath

Ha ha ha... uh, sorry. But seriously, I'd like to know how on earth could my vote have caused a double lynching when there was more than an hour till the end of the Day and there were 8 votes left.

"As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive." ~Kath

That's some nice framing up, but to me it seems that Kath's a bit too eager to accuse people with flimsy reasons and that she was trying to make an alibi for herself, perhaps knowing what the result in the voting would be. This doesn't necessarily make as much sense to the rest of you than it does to me because you can't be sure that I'm innocent (except the Seer, if they decide to dream of me), but shifting the responsibility of her vote on me instead of standing behind her own vote is really strange.

Really, if you're innocent, you can trust no other villager, so you should use your own brain instead of "accepting" anyone other's ideas. Also the use of the word "persuasive" here is interesting. I'm not trying to manipulate anyone to do anything, I'm gathering my thoughts and I do that aloud.


Well, that's it about Kath, and now something else.

- The voting. I can't tell much of it yet. If I'm going to comment it, I'll go back to reread everything more closely. Anyway, although I'm aware that the time zones have an effect on this, I'd believe that at least one of the wolves held back their vote a bit until they were sure that none of their comrades needed rescuing from the gallows. Also, I'd like to know if Kath was cross-posting her vote with Aiwendil because there's only three minutes between their posts.

- Márcolië Lamen. Glad to see that our missing villager has arrived.

- Silent people policy.
I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.
Sounds sensible, but this shouldn't make us hesitant to make a case against them either (I'm sure you didn't mean that, just mentioning). In a situation where no-one has any valid reason to accuse another villager, I prefer saving a contributing villager instead of someone who barely talks. As you said, anyone can be a Gifted, so we can't really go with that. However, now that we've scrambled through Day 1, we should have better chances to find good reasons to back up our theories.

[Cailín]

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

Mildly suspicious indeed, but I think this attacking of Kath because of that might be a bit overreacting. She may just have been insecure, unwilling to add another name to the pot and figured the best kill yesterDay was Abercrombie. I don’t know, though. Something about her feels weird to me, too.

My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us.

Agreed. The problem with this policy, though, is that the silent ones are just as likely to be wolves and when worst comes to worst, it’s quite hard gathering evidence against them. Also, Gil and Wayne generally get away with things (i.e. non-voting, being unreasonable) that others would never get away with. But still, I mostly agree.

It is possibsle that it was a clumsy attempt to frame Valier, Formendacil and/or Wayne, given that he expressed interest in Glirdan's crazy triumvirate theory. But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

A very clumsy attempt then, if that is indeed so. I know what you are trying to say and unwilling though I am to defend others whom I don’t know the identity of, it seems more likely that the wolves killed Aiwendil because he could not be associated with any of them than any other reason.

You seem very willing to cast suspicion on Glirdan, SpM. Are you sure you are not being vindictive? And anyway – if he is guilty – do you believe he would have gone after you, while we know you, as a man of the law, are probably able to make a case against anything that moves? On the other hand, I have missed your analyses!

--

Good to see Marcolie Lamen has finally arrived! At least we don’t have to worry about that anymore. So, let’s see what names were casually dropped in relation to wolvishness toDay:

Kath
Glirdan

Together because of their interest in Glirdy’s far-fetched and unlikely theory. Of the two, Kath strikes me as being the most likely to be a wolf, due to other accusations brought against her. However, I am convinced of neither. That Kath sealed Abercrombie’s fate is perhaps a sign of her guilt, but I hardly believe a wolf would seal the fate of a doomed innocent, when she could have safely voted for any of the others.

Malkatoj

Well, I’m not sure what moved Nilp to vote for her, really.

For now, I am really confused. I think this whole triangle thing should immediately be forgotten – it was a crazy theory yesterDay and remains so toDay. The people that have been mentioned so far are not the people whom I suspect right now. Sooner, some of the loudmouths are making me a bit uneasy at the moment… I fear we will eventually let them take control of the game (and why are Mormegil and Saucepan Man in agreement? That cannot be good, right?)

Anyway, I am willing to accept that there was no wolf in the Abercrombie-wagon. If there was one, I should think it either:

TGWBS
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Because of the time and relative security of their votes. Also, assuming Wayne is innocent, a wolf might have voted for him. I think that would have happened later on, when he became a relatively safe vote, for at the time I voted it was still rather likely Wayne was up for lynching. So that would make:

Malkatoj

Most suspicious. Then providing Valier is innocent,

Garin

Looks bad. I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

If Aiwendil was merely killed to make the wolves look good, we should look at Saucepan Man. Also, the death of innocent Aiwendil – contrary to what I stated earlier – makes anyone in the Abercrombie wagon appear less guilty on first sight, so we should definitely not forget who were in there.

That is all I can do for now.

[The Saucepan Man]

My analysis of Day 1 comments has proved helpful.
Even if only in a small way.

This post may seem strange to some.
Only one may understand it.
Or more – if they know a cross stick when they see one.

Not much analysis here, I am afraid.
I will be back later with something more constructive.
Let logic serve us in the meantime.
Perhaps this will be of some small use.

[The Saucepan Man]

… but this shouldn't make us hesitant to make a case against them either (I'm sure you didn't mean that, just mentioning). In a situation where no-one has any valid reason to accuse another villager, I prefer saving a contributing villager instead of someone who barely talks.I don’t disagree with this. There is, I think, a case to be made out against Wayne for his strange vote yesterday. But we should all know by now that this is generally how Wayne behaves, whether innocent or guilty. That said, his first post of the Day was uncharacteristically long … ;)

You seem very willing to cast suspicion on Glirdan, SpM. Are you sure you are not being vindictive?I am conscious of people’s natural tendency to suspect those who accuse them, and the dangers of doing so. The same applies, as far as I am concerned, to Kath to a lesser degree. But that does not mean that I should not examine them where there is evidence to suggest that they may be Wolves. Glirdan’s vote for me carried no danger of getting me lynched at the time that it was cast and so may certainly be viewed as a possible “safe” Wolfish vote.

Kath and, to a lesser extent, Glirdan have both come under the spotlight today, primarily as a result of the suspicions that I have aired. There are, I think, good points made against both of them. But it is also fair to say that their behaviour may also have an entirely innocent explanation. I am not yet ready to vote for either of them on the basis of the evidence as it stands.

Which brings me to another point. We should be aware of the dangers of allowing those who are vocal and who commit themselves to certain positions to dominate our deliberations. From my studies, I have been able to ascertain that this has been the undoing of villages beset by Werewolves in the past. We should perhaps be more wary of those who do not commit themselves, who participate in our discussions without taking any definite position and who seem to say little to draw attention to themselves.

At the moment, I would place the following in this category:

Formendacil: One “jokey” post which tells us little about him and a random vote. But there were reasons given for this, so I will suspend judgment on him for the time being.

Malkatoj: Other than some Day 1 random accusation, has only really committed herself to accusing two “easy targets”: Wayne and Gil-Galad.

Naria: Nothing from her so far to enable us to get a handle on her.

Garin: Has taken some flak for his coin flip vote for Valier. But has given little away as to where his real suspicions may lie.

Valier: Voted on Day 1 with no real reasoning and has told us little of her own thoughts. I do wonder, however, whether a Wolf would have been so bold at this stage to challenge my suggestion that all votes and accusations should be reasoned.

Márcolië Lamen: Very quiet so far and did not vote yesterday. But she has explained her reasons so I will suspend judgment on her for now also.

Shelob: Uncharacteristically, she has offered little insightful analysis to date. Her only real suspicion has been directed towards Garin, and that was vaguely expressed. Her vote too can be seen as a possible “safe” Wolfish vote (although there was still a theoretical possibility that Garin would be lynched).

I suppose it’s fair to say that Gil-Galad and Wayne have not revealed much so far in the way of their suspicions either. But it’s also fair to say that this is not unusual for them. Perhaps the same may be said of Valier and Naria too. And, as I have said, I am wary of suspecting anyone simply on the basis of their traditional pattern of behaviour, however suspicious it may look on the face of it.

I am more concerned over those from whom I would expect more, particularly Shelob. I am mistrustful of those who say a lot, but reveal little and she strikes me as being very much in this category at the moment.

In any event, I will be expecting more from all of these villagers today. And, before I get accused of telling the Wolves how to act, it is only by forcing them to participate more and, more importantly, to commit themselves by putting forward theories, that we will have any hope of spotting Wolfish patterns of behaviour.

[malkatoj]

Okay, I see my vote for Wayne has made me look suspicious. Why? On the first day, is it not best to lynch an unknown? Wayne always is an unknown, very difficult to read, and usually gets lynched eventually. Killing him early prevents us from getting distracted and killing him later on, when we have more evidence.

Cailin:
Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

Though I agree here, I'm also inclined to think, like Wayne and Gil, it's just Garin being Garin--in the last game (the last one I played) he acted in this manner as well.

I think the people who voted for Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's SpM, TGWBS, Spawn, Aiwendil, and Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set Crombie's death in stone.

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).

Since I've no idea whether I'll be on again today (silly school), I'll cast my vote now. If I do get a chance, I'll come back and look over everything, throw in whatever insight I have at the time, and probably apologize for voting earlier than necessary. Though it's unlikely.

++Aiwendil

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

What's happened toDay?

Kath: Defends herself against mormegil's suspicions.

Valier: l¨Laments Aiwendil despite how he treated a coconut tree, disagrees with Saucy's policy, says that sometimes it's just as good to vote without a reason than with one. However, agrees that players should give a reason for their vote.
(... ?)

Goes on about "validity".

"I thought in this game that everyone had picked fun occupations and it would be more laid back..I was wrong!" ~Valier

Yes, we take it quite seriously when our innocent friends get slaughtered. (Sorry for the OOC, but: Usually the occupations are just something that the mod uses in his narrations. We don't take this as seriously as it may seem, but the villagers want to get the wolves killed and vice versa, and it won't happen if we're only joking.)

Gil: Doesn't trust the law although doesn't want to offend Saucy.

Cailín: Kind of understands that Abercrombie got lynched, mildly attacks mormegil, lists the votes, says that Day 1's vote gatherers are usually innocent, but isn't sure about Valier. Mentiones Shelob and Glirdan, but doesn't find them suspicious now. Says we should definitely look at Naria. Thinks Aiwendil was killed because he seemed intelligent and didn't really accuse anyone. Didn't find Aiwendil's behaviour Seerish.

Also, she defends Kath, but says that something's not right with her, mostly agrees with Saucy's policy and wonders his suspicion of Glirdan, says the "Triangle thing" should be forgotten, is afraid the loudmouths, says that if there was a wolf voting Abercrombie, it's TGWBS or spawn. If Wayne's innocent, malkatoj's suspicious, and if Valier's innocent, Garin's suspicious. Accepts morm's vote for Valier, but feels uneasy about Garin anyway. Says Aiwendil's death might point to SpM, thinks we should still look at those who voted for Abercrombie.

Saucy: Wonders if Kath or especially TGWBS or spawn could be a wolf, but hasn't much reason to think they are, says that if Valier's a wolf, it makes Kath very suspicious. Based on "safe" or "throwaway" votes, suspects Shelob, Glirdan, Naria and Valier as possible wolves, but doubts the wolves would have acted like that. Says that we shouldn't lynch people who contribute little just because of that, answers TGWBS' question about the "trap" which Kath kind of fell for, but doesn't want to vote Kath just because of that although it might mean something in the future. Aiwendil's death might point to Kath or Glirdan.

Glirdan: Is increasingly suspicious of SpM, agrees with Cailín why Aiwendil was killed, says we're back at square one.

Shelob: Thinks Aiwendil was killed in order to lead us astray, disagrees with Saucy and debated with him about Glirdan and Kath.

Nilp: Thinks Cailín's analysis of Aiwendil's death is adequate, wonders how fast Abercrombie got the votes, but trusts most of the people who voted for her. Poses a question about the smaller bandwagons. Suspects malkatoj, Garin and Glirdan based on the voting, votes for malkatoj.

Márcolië: Thinks that basically we all are suspicious and thinks Aiwendil's death was supposed to make us suspect Formndacil, Wayne and Valier or to cast suspicion on Glirdan, doesn't find Glirdan guilty, though.

mormegil: Agrees with SpM, suspects Glirdan and Kath, wants to look closer at Valier and Cailín.

Garin: Says he can't tell much of Aiwendil's death, but the "throwaway voters" should be watched closely, is tempted to vote for Valier, talks about hiding behind characters.

TGWBS: Lists the votes.

spawn: Agrees with morm on Kath's behaviour and makes a case against her, can't tell much of the votes yet, would like to know was Kath cross-posting with Aiwendil, somewhat agrees with Saucy on the policy.


Somehow I'm now starting to feel more uneasy about Shelob and Cailín. I'll go looking back at their posts now and tell if I find something.

edit: Saucy and malkatoj's last posts aren't on my list.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, unless it is a very sophisticated double bluff, we can perhaps cross malkatoj off our suspect lists. Why would a Wolf vote for the very person she killed last night? :eek: :D

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

++Aiwendil
Talk about a throwaway vote...

Seriously, that's interesting. I believe this is the first time someone believes that a dead proven innocent is a wolf.

[the guy who be short]

I only have five minutes once again. I see my list was a little pointless as SpM already listed them.

Aiwendil's death - no clue. I'll analyse it when I have time later (should be about 3 hours).

Abercrombie's death - I have thoughts, but they'll have to wait as I'm pressed for time. They mirror SpM's, mostly, but with less emphasis on my guilt. ;)

A suggestion: Each potentially guilty person should have four villagers look into them and offer analyses.

[malkatoj]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Morning-coffee=BAD.

Anyway, I have no idea what just went on in my head and wow I feel like an idiot. Sorry for being an idiot, everyone, I got very confused.

Morning-coffee=bad.

++KATH

is what I meant to do.


(eep, sorry!)

[The Saucepan Man]

Malkatoj, did you really vote for Aiwendil without realising that he was already dead, or did you type his name mistakenly, meaning to vote for someone else? It's an important distinction.

Boy, it's quiet here today.

Hello?

Anyone else out there?

I hate to be the one doing the most of the talking. It will probably be the death of me ... :rolleyes: :D

EDIT: Also, I am unsure on the legality of voting for someone who is already dead and then subsequently voting for someone else (living). Given the non-retractability rule, is it allowed? Just want to be clear whether malkatoj's (second) vote will count.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

... here are some thoughts of Shelob and Cailín. My suspicion was initially based on a gut feeling, but let's see if I found something reasonable to say, too.


Cailín

On Day 1, Cailín made many posts, but few of them contained anything constructive to say. She said that we should listen to Sauce, but the next thing she said was that she found him suspicious. She mentioned Shelob to be suspicious, too, but didn't go further on that subject.
She listed all the villagers and in a joking manner analyzed them. She thought that morm looked guilty because of his vote for Valier, but said that Valier might be a wolf. Hmm, I doubt a wolf would make a three-way tie if his comrade was involved. She also defended malkatoj, but why did she do that when she coudn't know if malkatoj is innocent or not unless Cailín is a wolf and wants to buy the trust of an innocent?

Later Cailín showed mild uneasiness towards Shelob again, but right after it, she disregarded her own suspicions. She also defended Kath while expressing a little suspicion of her. Is this a classic example of obligatory suspicion towards a fellow wolf?

On a lighter note, "My tail was just accidentally split in half." ~Cailín.

We have a confession, folks, she has a tail. :p


Shelob

Shelob preferred random accusations to evidence, but since Sauce wanted reasoned posts, she decided to sit back and stay out of the conversation. Also, her vote for Garin seemed at least to me like a safe choice.

"It won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie." ~Shelob about her vote.

Besides, both options are generally considered as suspicious, right...?

Shelob also defended Kath and Glirdan.


If Shelob is a wolf, it would seem that Valier is innocent because of Day 1's voting

Also, both Shelob and Cailín seemed to know very well why Aiwendil was killed. I admit that most of us could have reached a same kind of a conclusion, but think about it, what would be more juicier a situation than openly tell all your fellow villagers what was the motive for last night's kill. Besides, a sound deduction could make them appear trustworthy, and by defending Formendacil, Wayne and Valier they could have tried to lead us astray (just like Shelob said the motive could have been), because at first it would be silly to think that the wolves didn't try to blame anyone after a kill but actually defend.

I guess that out of all the villagers, I'm the most suspicious of Cailín, Shelob and Kath now, and they seem to form a clear trio, but I don't think that all of them are wolves. Why, it may very well be that none of them is. However, I think that I'm going to vote one of them toDay if nothing surprising happens before it.

[Cailín]

Wow. Malkatoj's vote is very interesting. Either she is definitely innocent or this is about the boldest move I ever saw a wolf make.

It's indeed quiet and I'm waiting for more people to speak up... Thanks for the overview, Spawn, even though I'm not too happy about your conclusions. :p

I hate to be the one doing the most of the talking. It will probably be the death of me ...

I second this.

Anyway - I had hoped to hear something more from TGWBS... and Shelob... in the terms of constructive theories. Also, Mormegil has been rather silent so far, though that might be timezone related. I wish I could say more, but I could only list bad feelings right now, and they are not too helpful.

--

To answer to your further accusations, Spawn, I defended Malkatoj only because she seemed in a similar position and Mormegil mentioned us both. The rest can all be described to plain insecurity and just general not-knowing. I have not yet reached any solid conclusions and therefore still regard everyone as suspicious, even though I may wish them innocent.

--

I agree with you concerning Shelob. It seems in itself suspicious that she wasn't killed last Night. ;) However, I share her concern about Garin. And thus I keep walking in circles. Which is as much annoying me as it is you.

[Valier]

I thought I would post quickly then look through all the posts again then vote(*RL* School) Well the most suspisious thing to me right now is Garin's attitude
In all other games he is very vocal and accusing. He is always in the top three posters. This game though he is providing little and keeping his mouth shut ...does this seem weird to anyone else?

[Cailín]

Okay – I’ll share something rather embarassing with you all. I make schedules. Obsessively. So I also have schedules for all WW games I have ever participated in. Right now, I’m looking at the one for this game… And here follow some immediate thoughts:

For now I have the following people marked as innocent:

Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
The Saucepan Man
Malkatoj
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Marcolie Lamen
WaynetheGoblin

Most of these are based on gut feeling and I may be way off. I just thought that Nilpaurion has a rather easy time this game. He gathered no votes other than his own yesterDay and is still not suspected. Really, I suppose the safest Day 1 vote is to vote for yourself and Nilp would be just as suicidal as a wolf: he couldn’t afford to change strategies. Besides, it’s perfect. No one is even mentioning him right now.
I added Malkatoj to the list after her vote for Aiwendil. That was just too weird. The others are just feelings.

Then there are a few silent people… I don’t know about them. They are no good to lynch toDay, I suppose, with the possible exception of Valier, just because their death would tell us naught:

Naria
Valier
Formendacil

Then there are people whom I am genuinely concerned about. Mostly because you can never trust them:

Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
Garin

And I have a separate category for two of the loudest players who have pretty much avoided to mention each other, which is just strange:

Dancing Spawn
Mormegil

The first worries me in particular, though I might be prejudiced because I am on her radar. She provides excellent analyses, and yet easily skips over a few parts that would not work for her theory. This mask of perfect reason is definitely worrisome and uncharacteristic of a stumbling innocent – or maybe she is just that good.

My vote, however, will probably be for one of the people in the pre-final category. I shall analyse all their posts before coming to a conclusion.

By the way, Valier, I do agree with you but since Garin has not been too succesful in the previous games, he might have just considered a change of strategy?

[Valier]

By the way, Valier, I do agree with you but since Garin has not been too succesful in the previous games, he might have just considered a change of strategy?

Sounds possible...But What if that's what he wants us to think that he's quiet this game because he always gets killed. I am more inclined to think he's a wolf because I believe his mouth would run ramped no matter what. Killing me is an easy target, I am innocent I assure you!

[Cailín]

TGWBS

#4

Lists suspicion of us all. Especially Kath.

#6

Says I am not a mermaid. Psht. Ridiculous.

#53

Suspects Wayne (because of his vote for Formendacil, mostly), Gil-Galad (because his initial defensiveness), Abercrombie (for voting Nilp. TGWBS has a strange fondness for the mentally unstable), Mormegil (basically same as my concerns) and SpM (because of his self-centeredness).

He also declares Glirdan and Nilpaurion innocent until proven otherwise.

#57

Demands explanations from Mormegil and Garin. Lets go of his suspicion of SpM a little.

#59

Votes Abercrombie.

#64

Accepts Mormegil’s explanation.

#65

Lists votes

#104

Lists votes

#113

Nothing really. Says he has similar ideas as SpM and offers a plausible suggestion.

Well, these posts goes a long way into me believing TGWBS innocent. If only he would say a bit more toDay.

GARIN

#42

Useless Day one analysis. Same thing I’m so fond of. Says nobody knows anything.

#55

Says he wishes to vote for Marcolie because she has not spoken yet. Aligns himself with Mormegil. Says he shall likely vote for Valier. Thinks Sauce an innocent, ‘because he always is’.

#58

Says he will flip a coin between Abercrombie and Valier.

#61

Blames the coin and votes for Valier.

#75

Blames the coin again.

#103

Says again that the first Day is random. Thinks we should look at isolated votes. Then something about having no social manners.

Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote Marcolie, then – after Mormegil’s vote – wishes to vote for Valier and after SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents.

Hopefully I have time to do more people later on. Who's feeling up to analysing Saucy? ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

Hurrah! Some more contributions to our debate. But they seem to be coming from the same people each time ... :(

Interesting how there seems to be a collective suspicion for Kath and Shelob developing - and to a lesser degree, Garin. It is possible that this is the result of Wolfish manipulation against innocents, but there are more people involved in this than Wolfish manipulation alone could account for. And those voicing these suspicions seem to be those that I have little reason to suspect at the moment.

I am thinking in particular of mormegil, dancing spawn and Cailín, all of whom seem to be thinking along the same lines as me as far as Kath and Shelob are concerned. As is malkatoj, who I am now pretty sure is innocent (based on her mistaken vote). Now I doubt that there is more than one Wolf, if any, among this lot. If there is and he or she is responsible for this gathering mood, then he or she is a very skilled manipulator indeed.

I remain slightly suspicious of Glirdan and would like to hear further from him. And I share some of the reservations expressed (particularly by Valier and Cailín) about Garin's behavior. It seemed to me yesterday that he was playing his cards close to his chest (and I said as much), and he certainly has been doing so today.

One point to pick you up on, Cailín:

I just thought that Nilpaurion has a rather easy time this game. He gathered no votes other than his own yesterDay and is still not suspected. Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's). But, his suicidal tendencies notwithstanding, I see little reason to suspect him at this stage. True, he would act suicidal whether innocent or a Wolf, but that alone is no reason to suspect him. Do you have any other reason for your suspicions?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

EDIT: Also, I am unsure on the legality of voting for someone who is already dead and then subsequently voting for someone else (living). Given the non-retractability rule, is it allowed? Just want to be clear whether malkatoj's (second) vote will count. I'd appreciate if Modetarmacil could enlighten us on this matter soon. However, my broadband connection is acting really weird and I think it would be best for me to vote now while it's still working. I try to come back to discuss with you later, but I want to make sure that I can vote.

She provides excellent analyses, and yet easily skips over a few parts that would not work for her theory. Such as?
Well, anyway, the wolves aren't plain stupid, they won't act suspiciously all the time. I pick up the things I find questionable and build a theory out of them. My theories may be right or wrong, but I hope that they'd make us more talkative.

I can't for my life understand the reason why you put mormegil and I into one group saying that we don't mention each other often enough, so I won't go into that.

Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin. Were you satisfied with my summary of Shelob? Sure you don't want to add something I skipped in order to make my theory work. ;)


True, he would act suicidal whether innocent or a Wolf No, he wouldn't (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=442445&postcount=2140). :p (Although I guess that's not enough for a defense in a court.)

Ah, I can't decide yet whom I should vote for. I'll take the risk and leave voting for later till more people have said something.

[Valier]

Well it's coming close to the time I have to leave and I won't be back till after the vote.My suspisions of Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later!

++Garin

Hope everyone votes well today and lynches us a wolf! :)

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Interesting how there seems to be a collective suspicion for Kath and Shelob developing - and to a lesser degree, Garin. Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).

That's why I'd like to wait with my vote till everybody has arrived.

[Garin]

I apologize for not posting more but I am currently at work and have decided to actually do my job today. I will return to post my vote and am taking a little time to go over everyone elses material.

[mormegil]

I have stated elsewhere but I will do so here, there has been a recent influx in my business and I have a promotion to supervisor smith which makes it more difficult to debate things as often.

Now too many of us are willing to write off Malka for ridiculous vote for Aiwendil. Now maybe it's just me but as a wolf I'd be willing to attempt that and look it has given her immune status in the minds of many. I'm not ready to give up on her yet.

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

Kath is still unnerving though I've seen suspicious behavior from her before which was unfounded so I will give her another day or two.

++Cailin

Though Valier recent assertion of her innocence raised my eyebrow a bit and perhaps I may rue not voting for her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).Quite possibly so. Although my suspicions of Kath and Garin were originally aroused yesterday.

In any event, it is annoying that more people have not contributed so far today, as I must vote now or not vote at all.

We have three votes cast. One for malkatoj, which pre-dates her initial vote for Aiwendil, and which I suspect few if any will follow (unless they really do think it was a feindish bluff). And (assuming that malkatoj's second vote stands) one each for two of those who are, as matters stand, today's main suspects. In other words, the voting currently stands as follows:

Nilp for malkatoj
malkatoj for Kath
Valier for Garin

Well, I will place my vote for the third of those who have come under particular suspicion today.

++SHELOB

I outlined the reasons for my suspicion of her earlier. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way. I elected to vote for Shelob, rather than Kath, Glirdan or Garin (my other main suspects at the moment) because I don't have enough to go on as far as Glirdan is concerned and, assuming that malkatoj's vote for Kath is valid, I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible. I would counsel those who follow in casting their votes to bear that last point in mind.

Edit: Cross-posted with mormegil.

[Cailín]

Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's).

Ack! I'm sorry. I knew that and yet somehow I typed something completely different. My brains must be um... well... something bad.

Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

You give me more credit than I deserve, Mormegil. Anyway - I hope that if I survive toDay I may be able to convince you otherwise.

Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin.

I was going to do Kath and Shelob, but ran out of time. It happens. :)

[Cailín]

SHELOB

#23

Hopes for a miracle. Says she’ll wait to see how things develop.

#67

Does not understand the votes for Valier. Sees a little reasoning behind voting for Abercrombie, but does not seriously believe her guilty. Garin unsettles her.

#71

Does not wish to vote for Abercrombie nor Valier. Votes Garin.

#91

Thinks Aiwendil’s death was meant to confuse us.

#96

Disagrees with Saucy concerning the triangle thing.

--

It seems the only reason I have for suspecting Shelob is that she is not contributing as much as we’re used to. She has only suspected Garin, a safe suspect if he’s innocent, and was reluctant to be the cause of the death of an innocent yesterDay. Not sure what to make of her, there’s too little evidence.

And Spawn, I'm not doing this because I think you are incapable. I'm doing this because I don't trust you. ;)

[the guy who be short]

Apologies to people who have mentioned my quietness - College, then circumstances.

But, here are some promised analyses:

Death of Abercrombie

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

(Thank you SpM - I stole yours, as it was presented much more prettily.)

What's noticable? The Abercrombie bandwagon started late - and that's odd. SpM was the first to vote for her, and there seemed little chance of her being lynched then. A "safe" vote, but I don't think this incriminating, partially because I'm inclined to trust SpM, and partly because, with voting so spread out, almost all votes could be considered "safe" early on.

The second vote was from me, bringing Abercrombie up to two votes - the highest the other candidates had at the time too. This, also, I don't consider "safe" - if anything, I consider it the opposite, as it brought Abercrombie into the list of potentially lynchable people.

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

Aiwendil voted next - and died in the night. I'm not sure what to make of this - hopefully I will have time for an analysis of Aiwendil's words and potential reasons he was killed, but that will be next post, if at all. What relevance it has here, I'm not sure.

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do.

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

There are claims that Aiwendil's death may have been calculated to take the spotlight off those who voted for him. I don't support this - I think it put more emphasis and more mystery around those voting for Abercrombie.
But then, perhaps I simply feel so as I am in that group of voters...

As for who I feel could be guilty, that comes...

[the guy who be short]

Looking at the voting record (above) several names stand out. These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

In order, then:

14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

These are the real no votes. Shelob bringing Garin into play - fair enough if you don't believe Valier or Abercrombie to be guilty, but what about Nilp, Wayne, Formen? No feelings?

Glirdan for SpM - the same applies!

Naria for Nilp - idiocy. Voting for Nilp was not only pointless, it was detrimental to the village. There is no reason to vote for him in normal circumstances.

I would gladly vote for any of the three, but as it is, time runs short.


At present we have a vote for malka, a vote for Kath, a vote for Garin, a vore for Cailin and a vote for Shelob.

Though I suspect Shelob too, I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... (About that by the way - intuition, nothing more, Nilp. You're just a nutter who likes dying, and I get annoyed when people help you - it isn't good for the village. If you actually are a wolf, I'll faint).

++NARIA

[the guy who be short]

I don't have time to analyse Aiwendil, sorry. I started, but found little info either way.

Vote wisely, and, most likely, farewell until the morrow.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, well, Wayne, Naria and Formendacil haven't come to talk with us toDay at all, and Gil and Glirdan have posted only once.

The votes are:

Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria

I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible. I agree. However, now we have six lynching candidates and all of my suspects already are on the list. There's no reason for me to randomly add someone completely different on the list, and I can't wait any longer with my vote. Therefore:

++SHELOB

Best of luck to you, dear innocents!

[Formendacil]

You're naught but ninnyhammers, the lot of you!

Seriously, I don't hold with all this lynchermongery that's going on around here... I see nary a sane plan in sight, and certainly none that wears well enough to attract my agreement. Clearly, though, we're going to need some rope...

I suggest you all go back to cabbages and potatoes. Don't get mixed up in the business of your betters, or you'll land in trouble too big for you.

No, I can't give no insight. Haven't thought so far, myself; you're all queer folk, though. No, I can't rouse the energy and do it. Good night!

++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.

All's well that ends better.

[mormegil]

Formendacil is appearing strangely cobbleresque. Doesn't make him a wolf but it does make him somebody we ought to eliminate if we don't know who else to vote for.

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS but then TGWBS brought up decent points about Naria. So I guess what I'm saying is that while I'm confused it's likely that a wolf is in this small group of three.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because I may have little time, I'm going to start by listing those I seem most guilty and general reasons. If I end up with time I'll go through either post by post or at least analysing and quoting specific things. I hope I have the time to do that.

Villagers
Cailín-seems to be the one who's steering others thoughts most noticably now along with SpM, which is a very wolvish thing to do. However, because it is so early in the game, this is either a much safer, or much more dangerous position to be in if a wolf. I suspect Calin but she's not currently my top suspicion because it's almost too bold at this point to me, depending on the group.
Nilpaurion Felagund A suicidal one is always odd. Don't know anything about Nilp now. Suspicious only for living.
The Saucepan Man is one who is suspicious because of the strength at playing. I really don't know now at all how to look at SpM
Malkatoj...that was one strange vote. I doubt it was a wolvish bluff, mainly because its so out there. We can't just forget about it, but I'm more reclined to focus efforts elseware.
Gil-Galad has given little to workwith like always. Toss of the dice as to where he stands. I really don't know.
Glirdan in my mind someone being used to change where we're looking from last night. I don't think Glirdan is guilty, because of that.
Marcolie Lamen What can I say about myself? I wasn't here yesterday, and haven't said much, because of time constrants on my part, and its not like I'd look at myself as guilty.
WaynetheGoblin similarly to Gil-Galad someone who says very little and gives us nothing to go by. The first posts were uncharactaristically long though. I'd personally vote for Wayne over Gil-Galad because of this.
Naria collecting votes. I would agree that Naria looks suspicous at the time, because of voting yesterday, and quietness.
Valier in a similar position to Naria. They're so quiet they'd not tell us very much. Three votes for her yesterday.
Formendacil has been quiet but gave reasons. Not suspicious for this, so low on my suspision list.
Kath- an active name today early on, but recently dying down. Kath isn't the highest on my suspision, but can't be trusted either.
Shelob uncharacteristically quiet, in terms of giving little information. I cannot analyze and take out suspision on Shelob because in attempting to I'd alter how I was thinking. I'm too trusting of her to play werewolf against her. I'll read and comment on other peoples examinations, but I cannot make my own. Explaining this mainly because its a strange situation.
TGWBS has been vocal, but not overly so. Was looking at so-called throw away votes recently, which has a point, but which its hard for me to agree on after one day. Suspicious because seems to be in a very easily hid position.
Garin ever since I started reading this something hasn't sat right with me on Garin. I don't know exactly why, but because of this Garin has top suspicousness in my mind. However, looking at yesterday and those he'd vote for makes him even more suspicious. He talks about three and votes for one though not seeminly for a reason. I would probably be less suspicious of Garin if the vote had been for me. Also seems very easily swayable by SpM and morm
Dancing Spawn has been a very helpful poster with summaries. Not too guilty at the moment, but in a position where it'd be really easy to switch over.
Mormegil- Its scary to have Morm and SpM agreeing. Its like something has to be up. I seriously doubt both of them are wolves though.

If I was to vote now it'd be for Garin, but I have time, so lets see what happens between now and then.

[Cailín]

Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria
Spawn -> Shelob
Formendacil -> Saucepan Man

Well, Formendacil is acting strange.

++GARIN

He remains my main suspect of the Day. For reasons, see my analysis on him. It's here somewhere.

Edit: cross-posted with Marcolie.

[the guy who be short]

Wow! Internet time! Look at that!

I don't know how long I can stay here - maximum of 40 minutes, minimum of 0. However, in that time, morm:

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBSI'm curious what you inferred from Cailin's points, when she said they spoke in my innocence. :p

Lastly, I will reiterate. It is too late today, but tomorrow, perhaps, we can implement this.

People should voice suspicions during the first part of the day. Then, groups of four people should be set to analyse each one of these suspects so that we get an expansive view from many eyes, and minimise wolvish influence in presenting facts. I advise sorting people into groups alphabetically, there are too many factors that could go wrong if people choose their own groups...

Finally, we have a lot of loud people in the spotlight. It is unwise to let the loud dominate the scene and be picked off one by one, leaving no analytic minds left. Tomorrow, we must consider at least one of those who are "slipping under the radar" or simply not posting.

[Garin]

Well, I either talk to much or too little it is less a strategy than a return to work ethic. My boss mentioned 'the downs' specifically by name after the last game so I am devoting less time to this dangerous little addiction. I honestly have no idea who to vote for and no one has really swayed me. I might still stick to Valier, some good points have been mad about Shelob, Cailin seems a little mean for an innocent villager, and Form's recent snit seemed quite odd.

[Kath]

Well, I’m back.

So much has gone on toDAy already, I feel overwhelmed just trying to work out where to begin! But, we have votes, so I’ll look at who has been voted for, try to work out why, and see if I too think they look suspicious.

Malkatoj - voted for by a now sane seeming Nilp – though his vote was no more than a decision between 3, and the possibility that they were trying to cause ties or make ‘safe’ votes. There seems no real evidence of anything here. Malka defended her vote for Wayne reasonably, and looked both at those who were involved in the Crombie bandwagon and Shelob alone (though I’m not sure why she was singled out so). But then came that odd vote for Aiwendil! If anything were to make me suspect her it would be that, rather than her later vote for me.

Kath - by malka, perhaps in all seriousness, though perhaps just trying to make up for her previous mistake. If it is because I was involved in the Crombie bandwagon then fair enough.

Garin - by Valier for his ‘posting pattern’, and being unsure whether he is a wolf or not. Cailin due to his sucking up to the loudmouths and clever ones, and for his odd voting yesterday.

Cailín - by morm due to her pushing him to mention spawn when he does not find her suspicious, and also because she seems ‘wise and cunning beyond her years’ – perhaps she is just a precocious young ‘un :p

Shelob - by spawn due to her knowledge of why Aiwendil was killed in the Night, and because she defended the trio thought up yesterday. Sauce suspects her due to strangely little analysis and a ‘safe’ vote, feels she is saying lots but revealing little.

Naria - by TGWBS due to her ‘idiotic’ vote for Nilp, whom he considers innocent, and also to widen the voting field.

SpM - by Form for trying to take control. Now that’s a fair point right enough and one that I happen to agree with, but I’m not sure Sauce can do anything but! I don’t, however, think him suspicious. I dislike the taking charge, but I see nothing wolvish in it.

Now, my time here is up and I do have to go. Looking at this I would say the person who has voted with the least reason is Valier, and because of that:

++VALIER

[malkatoj]

Malkatoj, did you really vote for Aiwendil without realising that he was already dead, or did you type his name mistakenly, meaning to vote for someone else? It's an important distinction.

Typed the wrong name there, Mr. Saucepan. It rivals forgetting which side of my car my gas tank is on for the dumbest thing I've done today. I should sleep at night. The name 'Aiwendil' was dancing around in my head (something to do with suspicious vote, but he's dead so it didn't matter) and Kath came out Aiwendil.

Formendacil is acting kind of strange, but I don't see any wolfishness, just strangeness.

I'm inclined to trust Mormegil, also. His reasoning makes him seem innocent enough.

Since, right now, it looks like Shelob'll be lynched...well, she seems wolfish enough. But I do have a message from her: she's trapped in school and won't be able to post again today. She wanted me to mention this earlier but I was too busy realizing what I had just posted, so I forgot.

Kath, my vote for you was from the Crombie bandwagon. I meant to in the first place, as I explained earlier here.

[Shelob]

Not quite true Malka, but thanks for finally mentioning my trappedness. In my defense, and to that point, I will not check barrowdowns in school, I feel realy bad when I do and (If I'm caught) I get yelled at. Since My Personal school day starts at around 6 (when I wake up) and ends at 4 I'm stuck.

Given then that I've only had a brief chance to read things I'll address all accusations towards me tomorrow (if I live) and, since I don't really want to die. Vote

++Cailin

it's the best that I can do and I do appologise.

(though to be fair Suace, the only other times I've added information to the conversations I've actually had information...and time...ah, time...what I wouldn't give for some of that...)

[Garin]

I promise to serve the village better but beg you to understand my dilemna. It will go with Shelob with this vote.
++Shelob
Sorry, dear but better you than me/

[Meneltarmacil]

It had been decided that Shelob would be lynched toDay. The villagers gathered around the gallows as she was brought forward.

"But I don't even know most of you!" she protested. "I just happened to wash up here!"

"That's no excuse, Shelob," Saucepan countered. "Your arrival was followed closely by the first attack. That makes you our primary suspect."

"No it doesn't!" Nilpaurion Felagund blurted, climbing up to the gallows. "I'm a Wolf! I admit it! Lynch me!"

Nobody paid him any attention, shoving him aside. Instead, they hauled Shelob up to the gallows and put the noose around her neck.

However, when mormegil pulled the lever and dropped the trapdoor, causing Shelob to fall, there was no transformation as she died.

"Uh-oh," said morm, realizing the mistake. "Looks like she was innocent."


Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house.
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 13

It is now Night 3. Villagers, cease posting. Wolves may PM, Hunter and Ranger may not. I need names from the Wolves, Hunter, Ranger, and Seer.

By the way, I did count malka's vote for Kath.

[Meneltarmacil]

It was not long after the villagers had woken up that they noticed it.

A large pile of coconuts had appeared in the center of town overnight. Perplexed as to how it got there, the villagers discussed this recent phenomenon.

“Notice the interesting pyramidal shape of it?” Gil-Galad offered.

“It came from beyond the grave!” Kath exclaimed.

“”Don’t be silly, the Flying Spaghetti Monster clearly dropped it there,” Márcolië Lamen countered.

“The whales told me it was a gift from them,” said Naria.

Garin’s pigs, however, had already dug through the coconuts to find the body of poor Valier, who had giggled her last and had died standing on her head as the Wolves had tossed coconuts at her. All speculations stopped, as this was clearly the work of Wolves. Another innocent was dead.

Formendacil wrote all this down as usual, while malkatoj started searching the body for money.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 12

It is now Day 3. Villagers may post. Wolves, please cease PMing. Hunter and Ranger may PM each other now.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes after (inclusive)
1. Malkatoj - Nilp (Malkatoj - 1)
2. Kath - malkatoj (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1)
3. Garin - Valier (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1)
4. Cailin - mormegil (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1)
5. Shelob - SpM (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1)
6. Naria - TGWBS (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1; Naria - 1)
7. Shelob - spawn (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1)
8. SpM - Formen (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
9. Garin - Cailin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
10. Valier - Kath (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
11. Cailin - Shelob (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
12. Shelob - Garin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 3; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)

Did not vote Gil Galad, Glirdan, Marcolie Lamen, wayne, Naria



Analyses later. First, a few points.

Firstly, I would like to point out the huge number of non-voters. I, for one, would be more than pleased to kill them off if they don't start talking. As I said yesterday, we threaten to turn this into a battle of the loud and overlook those who are silent.

Secondly, I await a reply from mormegil re:Cailin. I'm curious what you inferred from Cailin's points, when she said they spoke in my innocence.
Okay, two points then.

Coming soon, my thoughts on the lynching of Shelob and the death of Valier, as soon as I can organise some.

[Cailín]

Wow, Valier died. That is certainly… unexpected. She was not without suspicion and did not seem as much as a threat as some. I shall miss the silly (coco)nut, though.

Shall I point out something funny? Cailín voted exactly the same as Valier did for two days in a row. Valier more or less trusted her and she seemed to trust Valier. Could this kill possibly have been made to make her look good? Wait – is this a case against myself?

Or – was perhaps Valier targetted as the Seer? I can see no other clear reason: surely by the third Night, the wolves usually go looking for the Seer. That would put Garin in a rather negative light. Actually, he would stay in a rather negative light.

As of yet, I do not know. Five people failed to show up for voting yesterDay. It was a close call between me, Shelob and Garin. Two of these are definitely innocent. Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad. On first sight, we seem to be no closer to finding a wolf. Or at least, I am not.

Then I have some sad, real life news. Within half an hour, I’m going to bed. I will have to get up very early and spend the entire day fighting big guys with wooden swords. Yes, this is indeed true. I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline. I’m dreadfully sorry, but these things are practically obligatory and also quite a fun way to get extra credits. I hope you’ll manage without me. I’m sure you will. :)

[Formendacil]

Okay, first of all, I'd like to commend, thank, and generally praise the Werewolves for not killing me.

Secondly, I'd like to insult them for killing an innocent Valier. I'd also like to insult the village for killing an innocent Shelob and Abercrombie.

Thirdly, I'd like to direct today's attention, discussion, and lynching towards a candidate who is a Werewolf.

Thank you, and good day.

I shall be back in about 21 hours.

[Glirdan]

Well, this is an unexpected turn of events. Definetly wasn't looked for. But it was probably the best choice for the Wolves.

*I must answer a few questions that will be definetly asked. I did not vote yesterday due to time zone difficulties. I did not have computer access all night (as will probably happen again for the next few days) and I have school which takes six hours out of my time. So, I'm sorry for my abscence and non vote.*

Now, I must adress a certain little thing that intrigued me when I went through the posts. I notice how SpM was after me a lot yesterday and knew perfectly well that I might not return in order to defend myself. What the strange thing is that he suddenly drops off that attack later on. I find this quite strange. Not to mention, if I'm correct, he was the first to voice suspicion for Shelob. He is really making me suspicious and uneasy.

I will have to go back thoroughly over everything that has been said. I will (try!!) and come back later with my conclusions.

*If I'm not back on again, it's because I got kicked off.*

[Cailín]

By the way, I would like to get an explanation from Garin for his last moment decision. As I said after analysing Shelob myself, I could not really build a case against her. The case against me was somewhat stronger. I'll be honest and tell you I was hoping someone (Marcolie) was going to show up and vote for you still.

Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day. This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds.

Also - I very much wish to know why so many people failed to vote. I've never seen anything like it. Is there a policy - like in WWXII - that you are automatically lynched if you have failed to show up for voting a few times? Because TGWBS is right - all these non-participants are only in the way right now.

I'm still in favour of lynching Garin right now. I am not sure whether I appreciated his 'better you than me'. I'm not ready to let my suspicions go.

Edit: crossposted with Glirdy.

[the guy who be short]

Right off the bat, I'll attack Naria and Glirdan for their no votes on Day 1. I haven't let that go yet. I did also suspect Shelob for the same reasons, and she turned out to be innocent, but I can't get over it.

I'll also defend Nilp - he's Nilp, after all, it's tradition - and malkatoj because of the misvote - I don't see a wolf doing that. There are others I had faith in before, but I will need to reconsider in light of voting patterns.

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

Interestingly, spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin have all voted for innocents twice. I'm not sure how telling this is, as I'm inclined to suspect none of the above, really. Perhaps I shall have to look into all of them individually. I went through Valier's posts, and she doesn't really mention anybody but Garin. As Cailin says, this makes him look bad, but it could easily be a bluff, or double bluff.

And now, I make a fool of myself, spending so much time dissecting the words of the loud and glancing not at the silent. I am confident that a wolf, perhaps two, abides amongst those who are silent or quiet: Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Glirdan, Form, Wayne and Naria. Form's behaviour is suspect, Glirdan's day one vote is incriminating, as is Naria's, and simple silence from wayne and quietness from Marcolie put me off. Unless something startling emerges, I will look into these six today. I definitely want them to start talking more.

[the guy who be short]

For clarification, "no votes" above refers to votes that would and did not affect the outcome, not lack of votes.

I am pleased to see Glirdan, at least, return. I'd also like him to reply to my accusation about his Day 1 vote for SpM - a complete waste.

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late.

[Glirdan]

Glirdan's day one vote is incriminating

I shall adress this matter rigfht now. As I said (if you go back and look at the post), I said my vote for SpM was so that I would not be bandwaggoning and so that I would not have to create a double lynch. I was suspicious of Valier, but I did not want to be the cause of two (now proven) innocents dying. I also voiced my suspicion of Saucy (which has not aabbated) the whole long of that day. Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

[the guy who be short]

I said my vote for SpM was so that I would not be bandwaggoning and so that I would not have to create a double lynch.At the time of your vote, you would not cause a tie - Abercrombie had 5 votes, and Valier and Wayne three each. That argument holds no water.

I was suspicious of Valier, but I did not want to be the cause of two (now proven) innocents dying.It seems that you're saying you already knew Valier and Abercrombie were innocent. While I appreciate that's probably not what you mean, I advise you to guard you words more carefully.

I suspect[ed] Valier all the DayWhat gets me is you suspect Valier - but don't vote for her when there's a chance to get her.

Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?And you have just called attention to the fact...

[Glirdan]

At the time of your vote, you would not cause a tie - Abercrombie had 5 votes, and Valier and Wayne three each. That argument holds no water.

Yes, I'm now aware of that. I meant that for earlier. Bascially, my vote was to not bandwagon and because I still found that there was something not sitting right with me for Saucy.

What gets me is you suspect Valier - but don't vote for her when there's a chance to get her.

I miscounted the votes when I voted. So, I was thinking, at the time, that if I voted for Valier, there would be a possible double lynch and I did not want to be the cause of that.

And you have just called attention to the fact...

Yes, I am quite aware of that. Purposely done as well. In my defence, if I were a Wolf, I would not be as stupid to attack someone whom I suspected. That would leave to many clues pointing towards me.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Sorry for not posting for a long time but im starting of with my vote.
++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

[Gil-Galad]

bah i always have the worst timing, i feel so bad for not voting the last 2 days, been busy with school and such, and i probably won't get another time so i'll give Wayne's death wish and vote for him


++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

[the guy who be short]

How... utterly... bizarre...

If I were still fully awake, I would analyse the bejeezus out of that.

I shall return in at least 14 hours, at most 17.

[Glirdan]

Well, I must agree with TGWBS on this. Thosee two votes are the most bizzare votes that I have ever seen. But, does it prove innocence? Or does it prove guilt? I'm leaning towards innocence for one of them, maybe both. I highly doubt that both of them would be as quiet as they have been and both be either Wolf or Gifted.

However, Wayne could be a Wolf who is trying to pull a Nilp and be suicidal and make it seem as if he's innocent. Or he could just be an Ordo who's had enough of this nonesense.

I can't make hide nor tail of Gil's vote however. I think it's just him voting so he can say that he's voted.

I really don't know what else to think of these two very peculiar posts.

[Garin]

I'm not going to waste the whole day defending myself to Cailin, who seems to have a awful mean streak that seems quite predatory, if you catch my meaning. Even if Valier did trust, her which isn't obvious it doesn't mean that a wolf-lin wouldn't take her out. I voted for Shelob to save my life, it would've been a double lynch. If that doesn't seem reasonable, I don't know what else to say. I'm not the suicidal one in this group.
I think the non-voters should be put under suspicion because voting records are one of the most telling and permanent things we have with which to root out the wolves.
Edit: I was called away from my desk so I cross-posted with quite a few people, including that odd vote.

[malkatoj]

So Valier's dead.

::double-checks::

Okay, Valier's dead. (Note to self: Don't vote for Valier.) :rolleyes:


Um, Wayne? Why's he pulling a Nilp? The fact that he's still alive kind of irritates me, mostly because somebody usually kills him. I find it even more odd that Gil immediately voted for him instead of SpM, whom a number of us have cast suspicion on.

Okay, to address the SpM issue: though by no means do I think it means he's a wolf, I'd like to point out that he started both the Shelob and the Abercrombie bandwagons. On one hand, he could just be casting fairly early votes and others are trusting him and voting with him because he's SpM, but perhaps he's just a very powerful wolf. It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay. And even if you don't vote for him, don't vote with him--innocent or no, it's dangerous to let one person have so much power over us.

[mormegil]

I have a couple of points that I would like to make currently.

1. Glirdan is incredibly suspicious.

At the time of your vote, you would not cause a tie - Abercrombie had 5 votes, and Valier and Wayne three each. That argument holds no water. Yes, I'm now aware of that. I meant that for earlier. Bascially, my vote was to not bandwagon and because I still found that there was something not sitting right with me for Saucy.

He responds to TGWBS thusly then shortly after states this

What gets me is you suspect Valier - but don't vote for her when there's a chance to get her. I miscounted the votes when I voted. So, I was thinking, at the time, that if I voted for Valier, there would be a possible double lynch and I did not want to be the cause of that.

So he states that he was aware of what his vote would do and then yet says he miscounts the votes and thought it would cause a tie. Seems a bit of a slip to me.

2. Formendacil's behavior is incredibly odd and I'm thinking I may vote for him. I don't know what to make of it. I don't know if he's the cobbler or simply doesn't care.

3. Wayne should be killed today! I know this will increase suspicion of me but I think that we will be better off without him. He wants to die and is incredibly ambiguous. His confusion does more harm than good. I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Those are my main three points but now I will move on to a couple of other items. TGWBS is pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little. Today you have rectified that and are contributing a lot. So that concern is nullified however I will continue to watch you.

Cailin still isn't sitting right with me and I may vote for her. But I may vote for Formen, Wayne, or Glirdan.

I do agree with most people about how obnoxious it is for so many people to not vote and propose that if it continues we form a posse, contrary to SpM to be sure, and lynch them summarily if allowed. If not continue to double lynch until behavior improves. ;) I know this won't happen and I'm not sure it should but I want to let people know how I feel about it.

Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.

[Naria]

Finally I'm on! I have a perfectly good excuse for not posting and not voting. I had said in my first post that I was using other people's computers and would be getting mine back. Well I did get mine back later in day 2, when I had finally downloaded everything and did a virus scan and got online the deadline had come and gone. Then this site kept freezing on me today.
So I truly apologize for that inconvenience. :)

I recall being fairly quite in the last game I was in. Three posts max in one day. I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already. I will however post a personal thought about each player later on.

[mormegil]

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well if you look at my track record and SpM while loud and analytical we're seldom right. So the wolves wouldn't be stupid to leave us around.

[malkatoj]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Hm. As much as I don't like the idea of killing off extras in our village, I feel that both Wayne and SpM need to go. SpM seems too wolfish, looking at his track record, and Wayne gets in the way. His most recent post even gets me thinking he could easily be a wolf, trying to pull a bluff...or double-bluff...or something like that.

So, while I'd love to have them both gone, I feel like if they're both innocent we'll be hurting ourselves a bit too much, and I really don't know what to do. Before trying to kill them both, we should come to some sort of village consensus about whether to go for a double-lynch or no.

I think we should, for the record. And I apologize if I'm wrong.

[Naria]

I don't agree with the double lynching idea. I mean if it happens in a tie vote then it happens. But I don't think that we should go out of our way to ensure this and make a conscious decision to kill two people at once.
What kind of furry talk is this anyway? Are we not worried enough about our dwindling numbers.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here is my voting analysis from yesterday. I know TGWBS has already posted his, but it is traditional for me to do so:

1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Aiwendil - er - Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Did not vote: Wayne, Gil-Galad, Glirdan, Márcolië Lamen, Naria

First things first. Valier's death. I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

Now, before I go on, let me get something out of my system. I am getting just a little bit fed up with people accusing me of talking too much and trying to take control. Well, pardon me for bothering to participate in our discussions (unlike some I could mention). :mad:

If you think I am saying too much, then the answer is to try to drown me out with your own analyses. I would be only too happy if you did so, since it seemed yesterday that there were only a few of us who were actually bothering to try to solve this mystery. That is what I am trying to do and that is why I have been speaking a lot. Thinking aloud, if you like, and sharing my thoughts, in case they strike a chord with anyone. I am not trying to control anyone or sway the village. Of course, I hope people read and take account of what I say - otherwise why bother posting? But I hope you are all capable of making up your own minds.

If people followed my ideas because they agreed with them, then it means that there must have been some substance to them, even though they turned out to be wrong. And it also means that those who shared my thoughts are just as complicit in the deaths of two innocents as I am and bear us much consideration as I do, even if I was the first to cast the vote for our dead innocents in both cases. I would point out that I was not the only one who suspected Abercrombie and Shelob, even amongst those who did not ultimately vote for them, and indeed my decisions to vote for those two, particularly the one for Shelob, were partially influenced by the fact that others, whom I felt to be innocent (at the time at least) were thinking along the same lines as me. And if people followed my ideas because they couldn't be bothered to think for themselves, then that's their problem not mine. Either that, or they are Wolves and were looking for a mistaken innocent to follow. Basically, I would encourage everyone to try to think for themselves and reach their own conclusions, rather than adopting mine.

OK, rant over.

Now, to comment on a few of the things that have been said today already, partially because they pick up on a few points that I wanted to make anyway:


Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.Well, for my own part, all I can say is no, I am not a Wolf, and yes, I have been badly wrong so far. Frankly, the fact that I am still alive does make me wonder whether I have been barking up the completely the wrong tree (to adopt an unfortunate phrase) so far and makes me wonder whether all of my suspicions to date (Garin, Glirdan and Kath) have been off-key. In other words, I feel as though I am more or less back to square one.


Secondly, I'd like to insult them for killing an innocent Valier. I'd also like to insult the village for killing an innocent Shelob and Abercrombie.

Thirdly, I'd like to direct today's attention, discussion, and lynching towards a candidate who is a Werewolf.I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage. Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we? And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched? It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.


Definetly wasn't looked for. But it was probably the best choice for the Wolves.Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).


I notice how SpM was after me a lot yesterday and knew perfectly well that I might not return in order to defend myself. What the strange thing is that he suddenly drops off that attack later on. I find this quite strange. Not to mention, if I'm correct, he was the first to voice suspicion for Shelob. He is really making me suspicious and uneasy.Glirdan, I explained at the time that I voted that I did not think that there was enough evidence against you to warrant a vote. And I was also concerned not to vote for you as a reaction to your vote for, and continued suspicion of, me (a consideration which Cailín reasonably pointed out). Would you rather I had voted for you, even though I suspected others more? As for Shelob, I was not actually the first to note her suspicious-looking vote on Day 1. That was Cailín in post #86. I did subsequently voice strong suspicion of her and was the first to vote for her. But that was because I suspected her. I wish more people had enlightened us with some constructive analysis yesterday - or even contributed - but I'd better stop this line of thought before I start ranting again ...

Also - I very much wish to know why so many people failed to vote. I've never seen anything like it.I agree. It was inexcusable (unless, of course, you have a good excuse - but even then you should perhaps not have joined our village in the first place).


I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?Although I did not agree with her reason for voting Valier yesterday (I thought that Valier justifed her vote perfectly well), I do agree that Kath is looking less and less suspicious as time wears on. Her Day 1 vote would have looked suspicious if Valer had turned out to be a Wolf, but we all know now that she didn't. Her Day 2 vote for Valier can't really be described as a "safe" Wolfish vote, as she was not to know that there would be such a pathetic turn out.

Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

In my defence, if I were a Wolf, I would not be as stupid to attack someone whom I suspected. That would leave to many clues pointing towards me.I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

Like others, I really don't know what to make of the votes cast by Wayne and Gil. I have cautioned about going against them when they are merely behaving as they always do, but my patience with them is now beginning to wear thin. It would be nice if they could provide reasons for their votes. Perhaps, if Formendacil is not the Cobbler, Wayne is. Or perhaps, as Glirdan says, he is taking a leaf out of Nilp's book (although Nilp carries it off with so much more aplomb :D ).

I voted for Shelob to save my life, it would've been a double lynch. If that doesn't seem reasonable, I don't know what else to say.Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner. I am not quite sure what to make of that. And, in response to Cailín's point, I suspect from the timing that he cross-posted with Shelob and did not see her vote for you before he cast his own. At the time, therefore, Shelob would have been the best option for saving himself. Although I am not sure why he did not make that point himself.


It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay.Oh I do hope not, but if that turns out to be the case, then so be it. At least people will be making up their own minds for once, even if wrongly so (*pulls back from another rant*).


Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.
It is interesting that she admitted typing the wrong name, having meant to vote for Kath. It would have been much easier to regard her as innocent had she said that she actually meant to vote for Aiwendil, thinking that he was still alive. But would a Wolf be so honest? Or is it another possible bluff? In any event, there are three Wolves to find, so I am crossing malkatoj off my list - for now at least. Despite her deeply expressed desire to be rid of me ...

So, any ideas from me as to who might be a Wolf? Well, the above is all speculation (so please don't be swayed by it). As I said, I am really back to square one. Besides, I am terrified that if I express any suspicions, a whole load of people will agree with me and we'll end up voting another innocent "on my say so" ... :rolleyes:

[Glirdan]

I must say that it is rather quiet toDay. Here's a short synopsis of what has been said all Day toDay.

TGWBS: Gives us a voting record of the previous Day. Says we should get rid of all those who are too quiet or have not voted. Asks Cailin and morm to answer his question from yesterDay. Attacks Naria and myself to get resoning out of our throwaway votes from Day 1. Says he can't get over it even though Shelob did same and as proven innocent. Defends Nilp simply because he's Nilp and malka because of her misvote. Also truts Kath due to her vote for Valier. Notes that spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin all voted for an innocent twice and doesn't really suspect any of them but decides to go back and check each of them out individually. Believes there is a Wolf hidden amongst Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Form, Wayne, Naria and myslef. Notices that both Cailin and myself said that SpM has voted for a known innocent first each Day and believes it to be incriminating. Finds Wayne and Gil's votes odd.

There's one thing that I find odd in there. While I do agree with him that malka is probably an innocent because of her misvote and her not showing up until yesterday, I don't think that we should leave Nilp out of our sight just yet. How do we know that he's not being a suicidal Wolf?

Cailin - Finds Valier's death rather surprising. Sees that Valier and herself have voted the exact same way for the past two days and thinks that it might be a setup to make her look guilty. Also believes that Wolves might have seen Valier as the Seer which would make Garin look bad. Finds that morm, SpM and Spawn all alive rather disturbing. Would like and explanation for Garin's last moment desicion. Says that people need to make up their own minds with whom they are suspicious of. Agrees with TGWBS on the fact that the non voters are just getting in the way.

I don't find anything in that overly suspicious. If anything, I find more insightful.

I'll have the other's up shortly.

[malkatoj]

So you don't think we should specifically go out and try to. Understandable. I'm not completely invested in the idea, either, but I feel like we should do something to get rid of Wayne, since he only confuses us, but we also shouldn't let it impede our progress on wolf-hunting for the day.

I, however, will cast my vote for the Day, for, like our late Shelob, I feel badly posting in school (and apparently do stupid things).

++Saucepan Man

for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row.

I'll probably be on again late in the Day, but I wanted to get this posted just in case I'm not.


Edit-Note: cross-posted with both SpM and Glirdan

[The Saucepan Man]

... for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row.Ah, whatever happened to collective responsibility ...? :rolleyes: :D

[Garin]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.
I never like-double lynchings, it just is terrifying to me that a village could accidentally lynch two innocents in one day.
Malkatoj: Okay, Valier's dead. (Note to self: Don't vote for Valier.)
It is good that you can laugh at yourself. It made me giggle in honor of our, poor dead coconut milker. The Guy seems to think this makes you innocent but I am not convinced. I don't find you too wolvish, and you don't have much of a beef with me, yet. So I'll sit back and make sure this isn't some masterful wolf strategy.
Both Wayne and Gil posted and voted curiously close to one another.
This is bizarre, I hope they aren't PMing eachother during the night, for they are either breaking the rules or are wolves. I wish they had fleshed out their reasoning a little more.
People seem more detached from this game than normal, some surely have reasonable explanations. Some are surely wolves, i wish our God Mod and made a rule about killing non-voters.
If Wayne, wants to die, I say let him. We have heard little to the contrary. However, I will wait. I'm normally against helping someone die, but am growing wary of it. At least, Nilp came up with an interesting post with which to condemn himself.

[Glirdan]

In answer to SpM's question:

Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).

There were a few people (me for one) who had voiced suspicion of her. She was also a very quiet villager. If they killed her off, it would leave no clues pointing to anyone in particular and leave some of us looking suspicious.

I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

I'm just going to say now, even though I'm going to be badgered about it for quite some time, that I realise my vote for you was a complete throw away. That was completely intentional. I did not want to bandwagon. That's why I ended up voting for you. As for my answers to TGWBS, I must say that I can't quite get my thoughts in order and explain how I have it in my head. All I have to say is that I was a quite confused (not to mention stressed) villager.

Now, to do an analysis on three more villagers:

Formendacil - Comes on and mourns for Valier's death. Blames the Wolves for killing an innocent villager as well as insults the village in itself for lynching two innocents. Says that we should direct everything towards the Wolves.

If I must say, this is the most useless post that I've ever seen. No substance, no helpful hints, nothing. He comes on and leaves us again in bewilderment. Either he's being a really brave Wolf or a very stupid Villager.

I'm gong to skip me for the time being and go on to

Wayne: Also comes on for one post and votes for himself.

Gil - Comes on for one post as well and gives Wayne a vote to go along with his death wish.

I've already given my opinions on this subject in a previous post.

I'll have malka, morm and naria up next.

[malkatoj]

SpM: Ah, whatever happened to collective responsibility ...?

Well, I voted for Wayne and Aiwen-- Kath. So I take no responsibility for these.

Cailin: Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day.

It just seems wolfish, and you more so because you started the bandwagons that led to the deaths. As always, apologies if I am wrong.

[Garin]

Posted by SpM: Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner.
I didn't intend to be arrogant, I really wanted to extend my sympathy to Shelob. She was not at the top of my list at the time and I won't PM her until this thing is over. So I thought the village was headed in the wrong direction but this is a game of survival, I thought her more innocent than others (rhymes with mail-in) but I was out to save myself. I detest the innocent that put their heads in the noose, so I was just doing what I thought was best for the village.
I used the word 'dear' because I wanted to give her the best, innocent or wolf. It was used endearingly.

[Glirdan]

malka - Finds it wierd that Wayne is pulling a Nilp and thinks that Gil's voter for him is even more odd. Wants to point out that, even though she doesn't believe that SpM is a Wolf, he was the one who started the Shelob and Crombie bandwagons. Agrees that we should double lynch, SpM and Wayne preferably. Votes for Saucy because he led the bandwaggoning.

Ok, either she missed SpM's long rant on making your own mind up or she just choses to ignore it. I find that reason rather....what's the word I'm looking for....BAD! Yes, I suspect SpM, but for reasons other than that. Also, if you would prefer to vote for Wayne, why did you vote for SpM? (Wow, I'm asking the same question that I've been asked all Day!! :eek: ).

morm - Finds me incredibly suspicious and finds Form's behaviour rather odd. Believes we should absolutely lynch Wayne and something about Cailin isn't sitting right with him. Thinks he's going to vote for Cailin, Wayne, Form or myself. Thinks that Wolves wouldn't be stupid enough to leave him or SpM around do to their track record.

I find absolutely nothing wrong with anything that morm's said all Day.

Naria - Explains absecence. Says he won't do any analysing due to the fact that there's enough people doing that already. Will, however, give a personal thought later on about each of the players. Does not agree with double lynching theory.

Well, I find that Naria's being entirely unhelpful. Doesn't want to analyse because others are already doing it. That's worse than Form because you're actually admitting that you don't want to do any analysing.

Next: Garin, SpM and myself.

[The Saucepan Man]

I feel like we should do something to get rid of Wayne, since he only confuses us ...Gah! Wayne confuses. I sway and control. Does anyone in this village have a mind of their own? :mad:

I find it ironic that, with so many people in this village singularly failing to contribute to the debate (and the voting), I am accused because I am actually bothering to spend the time trying to work out, and share my thoughts on, who the Wolves might be. I have been wrong so far, yes. But how many other suspicions and votes have been wrong also?

It just seems wolfish, and you more so because you started the bandwagons that led to the deaths.OK, I am starting to get angry now. I didn't "get" anyone to kill innocent villagers. And I didn't start any bandwagons - not intentionally so, anyway. I have always made clear that the voting should be spread widely in order to make it difficult for the Wolves. I take responsibility for my vote, but I take no responsibility for any others.

Are we going to see the usual pattern of innocents being lynched for having accused and voted for other innocents? And am I the only person who has voted for two innocents?

And, finally, do you really think that I have behaved in the way that a Wolf would behave? If so, then vote for me by all means. But I would point out that, if I am a Wolf, I have been a pretty poor one ...

Now, unless any other points come up, that's all I am going to say in my defence, as it takes up time that I should be spending formulating my thoughts, and it gets wearing. Ultimately, better a vote for me than a Gifted, but better still a vote for a Wolf. Unless, of course, you are a Wolf ...

[Glirdan]

Garin - Won't spend all Day explaining himself to Cailin. Voted for Shelob to save his own neck. Also finds Gil and Wayne's vote odd. Doesn't like double lynching idea either. Thinks that if Wayne wants to die, we should let him but doesn't want to help in the killing.

Well, out of this, plus the post that I didn't put in (simply because there isn't anything in there that I haven't [technically] put in already), nothing out of the ordinary.

SpM - Comes on and does really long post, some of which is ranting that he didn't lead anyong purposely to vote for Shelob and Crombie. Also finds Valier's death bizzare. Adresses certain comments that have been made today.

I'm not putting anything else in because he's only made two posts, one of which you'd have to read yourself to get more out of it. However, out of that entire post, I must say that nothing seems out of the ordinary. I still don't trust him.

Now, for me: Comes on and says that he finds Valier's death odd. Adresses questions made by TGWBS. Finds Wayne and Gil's votes rather strange. Perhaps Cobblerish? Or maybe pulling a Nilp? Does analysis of everyone who's posted toDay and adresses comments made by SpM.

Take from that what you will. As for my suspcions list(not in order):

SpM
Gil
Wayne
malka

I think the following few people are mst likely innocent:

Cailin
morm

Still not sure of:

Form
TGWBS
Naria
Garin

As for those who haven't posted yet, I'll have to reserve judgement for them. I will have to vote very shortly. Out of the 4 I suspect, I don't know who to vote for.

[The Saucepan Man]

Just reading back and noticed that when I said ...

They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter.I meant Seer and Ranger. :rolleyes:

[Garin]

I'll admit it, if I was a wolf I would have taken out Cailin and not the vague giggling-kitten. She has it out for me and I am not sure why, It just seemed Valier was just following her lead to a certain death. I looked at the photo of Cailin on the photo page to try to get a feel for her aggression and don't see the pretty young woman acting so aggressively if not for a lupine identity. I'm confused and as angry as SpM right now for the way the village is acting. I will continue to disregard her suspicions and propose we weed out the non-participants.
I will ignore principles and go for Wayne and perhaps Gil in several hours. I will likely not vote for Cailin because I am not one to vote in retribution.
But I could be swayed.

[Glirdan]

Well, I have to vote now and it shall be for

++SpM

I'm not aiding Wayne to be suicidal. We don't have anything concrete on either him or Gil, I'm not quite sure malka is a Wolf due to the fact that she was gone an entire Day. That leaves me with SpM. Not because he was the lead people to bandwagon, because he was the first to vote for both Shelob and Crombie (bandwaggoning not his fault) and I think that he's been a little over defensive in his last few posts. Not to mention something is still not sitting right. I wish you all good luck and may we finally find a Wolf.

[Márcolië Lamen]

I'm so sorry about all of this. First off I lose access to a computer. When I regain it I have no idea why I don't vote. I'm not going to try to explain, because I don't understand myself...since I had the window open to cast my vote in and forgot about doing that before leaving for class...

I really don't know what to say now. Everything I can think of at the moment has been said, and I have no idea how to best mix it up.

this has been a really odd game, and whenever I'm reading I feel like I'm getting nowhere.

I'm going to go off for about 10 minutes to clear my head, then read through everything again and just let anything I can think of come out.

Sorry again.

[mormegil]

I cannot for the life of me understand the current suspicion towards SpM. I see nothing in him that makes me think he is a wolf. I think there is wolfish influence here and it makes me look at Glirdan, again, and Malka.

The votes don't seem to be explained sufficiently. In my opinion SpM seems sincere and genuine. I can sympathize with his frustration, for I have felt it too. I care not what this may do of people's opinion to me. I am defending somebody that I believe innocent.

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.

[Garin]

I think it a mistake to target Sauce at this time. He has these long posts that might reveal his identity if we are patient. I hate to see one of our most active members die when there are certainly some wolves watching from afar. He voted for innocents but who hasn't? There lies some busy-work for a post. I declare that I will not vote for him even it means my own neck. I stand that non-participants should die and not those willing to stick their necks out.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First, I'll say that I'm convinced The Saucepan Man is innocent (although the manner of presentation is a bit unimaginative. :p )

Second, I also think dancing spawn of ungoliant is innocent, because if I had a hand in killing her it would look bad for future in-laws. :D

Third, I'll be back with a more serious analysis. More voting records to check, with more innocents (unfortunately most of them dead) to reduce the pool of predators. I'll probably be more useful today.

Just don't roast me and eat me!

[Formendacil]

It is 1:30 am. I ought to be in bed.

Clearly, however, I am not, and so I am here offering no help whatsoever- and a full 12 hours or so before I'd predicted I'd be doing that.

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage.

Ah, but perhaps I have no insightful analysis to offer? ;)

Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we?

Nor are you ever likely to, since I do not deign to share them, and since "they" probably don't exist in the first place...

For what it's worth, I haven't been able to keep up with this game as closely as I have in times past. The adjustment to reading full pages at a time and trying to digest their full meaning... doesn't work for me.

And I'm too lazy to try.

And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched?

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Yep, that's me: no use at all. :p

Seriously, I have very little to offer which is new, relevant, or sensible. Other than popping my head in to assure you all that I'm still alive- what else have I to do?

And, incidentally, I am still very much alive.

Now, although it is my avowed intention to be no use whatsoever, allow me to put forward a tidbit of caution regarding the evil Saucepan Man. The Saucepan Man, as we call him, is an uncannily cunning Werewolf player- although often clueless in his guesses as to innocence. Possessed of the talent of persuasion, he is renowned for his ability to sway the village in favour of his candidate- wisely or not. However, thus far, this ability has always been coupled with an Innocent Demeanor.

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?

However, it seems me that he came on a good deal stronger in this game than in those previous, hitting the ground running, so to speak, with typical Day 1 babble about his occupation: Day 1 babble that basically said "I'm a lawyer, so let me be in charge".

As already noted, both Mormegil and the Saucepan Man, who are perhaps the two villagers best known for cunning and noisemaking, are not dead. Is this perhaps a sign of Werewolfishness?

I remain, foolish villagers, uncertain of anything. But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow. Seriously, guys...

Bandwagoning. In this village the person who gets the most votes is lynched. In order to get the most votes, the lynchee has to be voted by a majority. In the end of a day, there has to be some kind of a majority voting for a villager or otherwise we're all dead after Day 1, and therefore it's ridiculous to call every cluster of votes a 'bandwagon'. Those who have no opinions on their own are the ones to do the bandwagoning (with possible wolves). Those who have their own theories about what's going on in this village do not bandwagon despite in whatever way they vote since they have another reason to do it than that someone just seems to be getting votes anyway.

Let's assume we have a bandwagon against an ordinary villager. Who is responsible for the death of an innocent? Every one of us has only one vote, so a single villager can't get anyone lynched by him/herself. Take responsibility for your vote! If you're too lazy to make your own mind about things and we lynch an innocent, you can blame yourself. And in that case, maybe this village life isn't made for you in the first place. Sure you wouldn't be happier somewhere else, like in Rivendell where you can just sit back and have fun as much as you want to?

Swaying. If it bothers you, don't be swayed.

(I'm not saying that we would have some villagers who tried to manipulate others, but since it seems to be pretty hard to change that fallacy - ooh, would that be swaying, too - I leave it at that.)


Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now. I'll be back with more thoughts as soon as I can, but unfortunately I'm today pretty much caught up with violin concertos and vocal fugues... I mean, daisies and lilies. I'll try my best, though.

ps. Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I believe that saucemanpoet . . . I mean, The Saucepan Man is innocent.

Why? Because I notice things. Things ordinary people wouldn't notice. Yeah, yeah, you might think, 'Are you the Seer?' and all such nonsense. I'm not, okay? I just read carefully.

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.

With this said, I am quite convinced that some of the Villagers clamouring for Saucie's death are, in fact, Werewolves.

Yeah, I'm looking at you, Glirdan. You too, malkatoj. And, oh, Formendacil, the Sharingan has not passed by you.

I'll be back with my lengthier analysis.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The votes have to tell something. At least I hope they do.

Day 1 ; Day 2 ; Day 3 (thus far)

Formendacil -> Valier ; Sauce (8)
Wayne -> Formendacil ; no vote ; Wayne
Nilpaurion -> Nilp ; malkatoj (1)
--Valier -> Wayne ; Garin (3)
--Abercrombie -> Nilp
Cailin -> Wayne ; Garin (9)
Mormegil -> Valier ; Cailín (4)
Sauce -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (5)
TGWBS -> Abercrombie ; Naria (6)
Garin -> Valier ; Shelob (12)
Spawn -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (7)
--Aiwendil -> Abercrombie
Kath -> Abercrombie ; Valier (10)
--Shelob -> Garin ; Cailín (11)
Malkatoj -> Wayne ; Kath (2) ; Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce ; no vote ; Sauce
Naria -> Nilp ; no vote
Márcolië -> no vote ; no vote
Gil-Galad -> no vote ; no vote ; Wayne

Those who have voted for a known innocent who got lynched are bolded. Those who have voted for a known innocent who got killed by wolves are italicized. The number behind Day 2's votes is the order in which the votes were cast. Day 1's votes are already in chronological order.

I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.

Now, there are too many of those who haven't voted on both days, and it's all pretty confusing with bluffing, double bluffing, triple bluffing... But I believe that there was at least one wolf who stayed behind on both days to observe how the voting shall go. One that fills those criterias and looks pretty suspicious anyway is Glirdan. The other one is Cailín. Statistically speaking, it's probable that there's also a wolf in the bolded/ italicized group, but I can't really tell whom I'd suspect the most of them. At this point, I weill definitely keep an eye on those two. Oh, and since my logics have failed me thus far, if I only have time, I think I'll go and make a case against someone I really haven't suspected. Maybe I then have a better chance to find a wolf.

What about Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes, Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues). In the end, if it turns out to be a bad choice, I'll rather be killed by wolves who did good job hiding right under our noses than by wolves who acted suspiciously all the time but to whom we always gave a second chance. I don't know whether I'd like to have a double lynching or not, though. Depends on who are the lynching candidates, I guess.

I believe that saucemanpoet . . . I thought that sounded familiar... :D

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

NIGHT deaths, DAY votes, and reasons for such things. Innocents in underline.

NIGHT 1

Meneltarmacil - moderator

Because. :p

DAY 1

Form: I'm voting for ++ Valier. Queen Beruthiel must go!

Wayne: ++FORMENDACIL

I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.

Nilp: ++Nilp. Who else?

Valier: ++Wayne. Well I just have to say I don't like wimps, or nerds or well most things besides lovely coconuts.(Giggle) The Goblin must go! (Giggle)

Abercrombie: Best go with the one that has already provided "conclusive" evidence of his guilt: ++NILPAURION FELAGUND

Cailín: ++WAYNETHEGOBLIN. Your vote for Formendacil and your defensiveness doesn't sit right with me.

morm: ++Valier. If for no other reason than the giggling and to get things moving a bit.

SpM: For her rather forceful reaction to my pressing her for evidence and for naming easy targets before going on to cast what I consider to be a "safe" vote (at least for today) for someone else, I will cast my vote for: ++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN

daga'y: WHY MUST YOU PEOPLE PERSIST IN PERSECUTING THE POOR NUTTER [Nilp]?

++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN. I was suspicious before, but SpM's comments distilled that suspicion.

Garin: Well, I am slightly inclined towards Abercrombie but the coin tells me to vote for Valier. If this turns out to be wrong you can lynch the coin. ++Valier

spawn: If your best is to vote for someone who said he won't be here during the rest of the Day and who is a safe vote because the odds are that he won't be lynched today, I'd like to know what is your worst. Besides, you said you didn't want to vote for Wayne because he already had one vote. Why did you then want to vote for Nilp although he, too, had one vote?

Well, I'll make a tie between Abercrombie and Valier. Let's see how others react to that.

++Abercrombie

Aiwendil: I can't say I see much reason to think that either [Valier or Abercrombie] is a wolf, but then (it being early) I don't have much reason to think that anyone in particular is a wolf. As I indicated before, I am very slightly inclined to think Abercrombie more likely to be guilty. Therefore: ++AbercrombieofRohan

Kath: As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive. ++ABERCROMBIE OF ROHAN

Shelob: I don't want to bandwagon (vote for Aber) and I don't want to tie it (vote for Valier) so I'm just going to vote for the person I have the worst feeling for right now, and that's still: ++Garin

malka: So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN for reasons I explained earlier.

Glirdan: ++Saucepan Man. Simply because something about him is not sitting right with me. I also don't want to be a part of a bandwagon and I don't want to cause a double lynch.

Naria: Sorry if you're an ordo....you just too crazzzy!! :D ++Nilp

NIGHT 2

Aiwendil - innocent

Cailín says: He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought Abercrombie nor Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in Saucy's reasoning. He thought Glirdan’s Form - Wayne - Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.

DAY 2

Nilp: malka, and her vote for Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie? ++malkatoj

malka: I think the people who voted for Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's SpM, TGWBS, Spawn, Aiwendil, and Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set Crombie's death in stone. ++KATH

Valier: My suspisions of Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later! ++Garin

morm: I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage. ++Cailin

SpM: ++SHELOB. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way.

daga'y: These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... ++NARIA

spawn: Shelob preferred random accusations to evidence, but since Sauce wanted reasoned posts, she decided to sit back and stay out of the conversation. Also, her vote for Garin seemed at least to me like a safe choice.

"It won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie." ~Shelob about her vote.

Besides, both options are generally considered as suspicious, right...?

Shelob also defended Kath and Glirdan.

++SHELOB

Form: ++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.

Cai: Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote Marcolie, then - after Mormegil’s vote - wishes to vote for Valier and after SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents. ++GARIN

Kath: I would say the person who has voted with the least reason is Valier, and because of that: ++VALIER

Shelob: since I don't really want to die. Vote: ++Cailin

Garin: ++Shelob Sorry, dear but better you than me/

NIGHT 3

Valier - Innocent

Sauce says: I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter [edit: Ranger]. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double[sic]-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

~*~

Analysis later. Sorry to keep you waiting, but this will take a while.

[Garin]

Form says: No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.
I'm not swayed too much by that but that comment may come to haunt you.
Nilp always confuses me with a suicidal run and then a dedication to the village with some real analysis.
I find both somewhat innocent but that is off the record.

[Garin]

Spawn says: What about Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes, Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues).
I agree with this completely, that was very odd and almost seemed prearranged.

[mormegil]

I think I know why we, the loudmouths, are still alive. It's because if they killed off the handful of us that talk a lot this village would be silent!!!

I think I shall stick with Cailin today. My observation earlier has solidified in my mind and I can see now her wolfish influence taking root in our councils. My suspision of others still holds and will continue on but currently there seems to be a lack of action so I will go against my wont and vote early, meaning before the final hour.

A personal side note. Tomorrow I may be going for those who are perpetually silent and haven't contributed much to our village. At a certain point they will need to be cleared out to remove some of the confusion and ambiguity. So I will start with the most guilty looking quiet one and move on. Probably Formen right now...I just don't understand him at all.

++Cailin

[Gil-Galad]

alright i sneaked back on


to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling us

[The Saucepan Man]

We don't have anything concrete on either [Wayne] or Gil ...As it happens, I agree with that. They are acting strangely, but they always do. There's really not much to go on at all. Having said that, we are getting to the stage (or at least I am) where a vote for one of them is possibly on the cards on the basis that I have little else to go on and I would rather be rid of them than some others here. Neither are helping much and I don't believe either of them to be Gifted.

I still believe malkatoj innocent (though misguided). It is possible that she was pulling an elaborate bluff with her vote for Aiwendil and her subsequent admission that she typed his name by mistake instead of Kath, whom she says that meant to vote for. It is also possible that Aiwendil's name had stuck in her mind, having been involved in his murder the night before and that it was a genuine mistake by a Wolf. But I think both of those scenarios unlikely and therefore will not (in the absence of something more) be voting for her today.

That leaves me with SpM. Not because he was the lead people to bandwagon, because he was the first to vote for both Shelob and Crombie (bandwaggoning not his fault) ...Come now, that is poor logic Glirdan. If you are voting on the basis of the "bandwaggons" against Abercrombie and Shelob, yet you accept that I did not intentionally start them, you should be looking to those riding in the waggons, not the one who cast the first vote. Besides, the votes against Shelob can hardly be described as a bandwaggon. She died on the basis of three votes. Had more people turned up to vote (yourself included :p ), things might have turned out differently.

... and I think that he's been a little over defensive in his last few postsAh, that old chestnut. Can you blame me, given some of the reasons that have been put forward in accusation of me? And really, I was feeling more angry than defensive. Although I stand by what I said.

Not to mention something is still not sitting right.I wish you would explain this. If you are referring to my Day 1 approach (which is when your suspicions of me started), that was a combination of role-play and an attempt to stir things up. I would be interested to know just what isn't sitting right about me with you.

Funnily enough, my suspicions of Glirdan have actually lessened today. I don't like his reasons for voting for me, but they do seem to me to be the kind of standard reasons that an innocent with very little to go on would put forward to justify a vote.

I cannot for the life of me understand the current suspicion towards SpM. I see nothing in him that makes me think he is a wolf. I think there is wolfish influence here and it makes me look at Glirdan, again, and Malka. Thank you mormegil. For what it's worth, I can see nothing suspicious about you either. Most of what you have said has struck a chord with me, or at least seemed sensible. I will no doubt be accused, for saying that, of trying to attach myself to someone who is under little suspicion at the moment, but so be it. I know that you, at least, do have a mind of your own.

As for the current briefings against me, I did expect myself to be under some suspicion today. Indeed, selfishly, I was quite glad of it at the end of Day 2 as I thought that it might prevent me from being killed overnight. But I did not expect it to be expressed quite so strongly. I agree that there may be a Wolfish influence here. My problem is that I am inclined to think that both of those who have voted for me so far are innocent. I have been looking back to try to establish where this all began. Glirdan and, to al lesser extent, malkatoj, have expressed doubts about me all along. Other than them, the only ones who have referred to the likelihood of me being suspected today are Cailin and TBWBS:

Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day. This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds.

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late.Both might be viewed as attempts to reinforce the inevitable suspicion of me in an oblique manner, without making any direct accusation. Of the two, I find TGWBS the most trustworthy. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder about Cailin. Which brings me to this:

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.Funny how you and I keep thinking along the same lines. I was beginning to think along the same lines when I reviewed today’s posts before taking my midday nap (ie going to sleep for the RL night). She did the same, to an extent, yesterday with Shelob. She was the first to note that Shelob’s Day 1 vote could be seen as a safe Wolfish vote, although to be fair this was a matter of timing. I had noticed the same thing myself before reading her thoughts. But she maintained her suspicion of Shelob for most of the Day before going on to dismiss it when the case against Shelob began to gather speed. Perhaps she is trying the same tactic, in an even more subtle manner, with me today. But I agree that she is intelligent (and therefore potentially cunning) and capable of great subtlety, if a Wolf. I do now have some concern over her.

First, I'll say that I'm convinced The Saucepan Man is innocent (although the manner of presentation is a bit unimaginative :p .)Glad that you caught it. I could not resist. :D I feel the same way about you, incidentally. And, if anyone wants to know why Nilp and I trust each other, read our more non-sensical posts more carefully.

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.I am inclined to believe that. You may still be the Cobbler, but I don’t believe you to be a Wolf.

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?A fair point, although the same applies if I am innocent. Sad though it may seem, I really only know one way to play this game.

But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.Yes. Please do look closer. In particular, try to look further than my traditional style and my unfortunate voting pattern (in which others undoubtedly share, whether that be known by now or not).

Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.I really see very little reason for worry as far as dancing spawn is concerned. Of course, she, like me, has voted for two known innocents. But I prefer to look at the whole picture. Despite those votes, she seems to me to be talking nothing but good sense.

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.This makes a lot of sense to me.

I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.And so does this.

So where does that leave me? My concern about Cailin is growing. I can see myself voting for her today. I would also not be averse to the idea of lynching Wayne or Gil-Galad, or even Formendacil, for their unhelpful contributions and will not hesitate to do so if it is me or one of them. And I could also countenance lynching any of the others who are singularly failing to contribute to our discussions. Yes, that means you Naria and Marcolie. While it goes somewhat against what I said at the beginning, given the way things have gone so far in this village, I would rather get rid of one of them that risk lynching a Gifted or a more helpful villager. My only concern is that one of them could just be a Gifted (although they are doing a good job of hiding it if they are).

And where is Kath today? I am coming round to the view of her being innocent and, as such, would welcome her contribution to the debate.

[The Saucepan Man]

to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling usOK, I take up some (only some) of what I said about Gil being unhelpful. This echoes something that Glirdan said earler. And the more I think about it, the stranger I find it that Wayne voted for himself. It seems out of character. Doesn't he normally get rather upset about being lynched? I can see a Wolfish Wayne deciding that voting for himself might get him off the hook.

So, as matters stand, I have pretty much narrowed down my vote for today to Wayne and Cailin. Which is quite good for me really. I will vote to save myself if I have to, unless it involves voting for someone who I think is innocent and useful or who might be Gifted, as (my contribution to date notwithstanding) I do believe that I can still be of some use to this village. And if I do have to vote to save myself, I would rather do do by voting for someone whom I strongly suspect than for someone who I have little clue about or someone that I think innocent but unhelpful.

Only problem is, it is unlikely that both cailin and Wayne are Wolves - unless Cailin was trying to pull off a very bold strategy on Day 1. Hence, even if I was attracted by the double-lynch idea (which I am not, as it happens), I would not counsel double-lynching these two.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

*deep breath*

Form is useless in this game so far. Even if he's innocent (which I rather doubt), Darwin may justify us in killing him.

Glirdan has attacked Sauce not once, but twice--Form, too, I forgot, attacked the poor lawman twice. Of course, his DAY 1 vote may be seen as a safe one, since it has no chance of taking power. But still . . .

malka's mistaken vote for Aiwendil yesterDAY . . . hmmm . . . Well, I did almost vote for players that didn't actually join in the last game, so . . . I don't know. Still not entirely innocent, to me. Less so, since she's attacking an innocent. But she is safe from me toDAY.

Well, Cailín:
This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds. (Cailín)Things are going the wrong way, with two innocents lynched. That's why people are blaming the 'Pied Piper.' But . . . this is the first mention of this whole 'bandwaggon leader Sauce', right? Hmmm . . . considering the effects of her words, as mormegil said, this is pretty subtle manipulation. Creepy. 'This is no accusation,' indeed.

Now, daga'y:
That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late. (he is short)This seems innocent to me, sorry. Not because he's been defending me, but because it casts no accusation, unless its aim is to put into the minds of the others--the ones easily manipulated into doing bandwaggons, may I add--that this metal-clad chap killed two of their fellows. Or perhaps I'm putting words where they are not.

To be dramatic, these three, Cailín, Glirdan, and Form, might form a firestorm that would consume Sauce--and probably the rest of the loudmouths. I'm for lynching one of them.

Well, since Cailín already had a vote, a vote for her would seem most useful at the moment.

++Cailín

(Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart. :p )

[the guy who be short]

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

But before I go on and investigate for myself her possible lycanthropy, I have previous points to bring up.

At the moment, I am most in favour of lynching Glirdan. He gives no reasoning for his lack of logic, and very little rational reasoning for casting suspicion on SpM, his odd feelings notwithstanding, of course.

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying.

Wayne's suicide attempted could be viewed in many ways, and I don't know which to opt for. It's strange, as his name had really been mentioned very little beforehand. Perhaps a wolf feeling the pressure and trying to pull a Nilp. But perhaps simply a lost innocent. To be completely honest, I don't know at the moment, both ideas seem likely.

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

What I find interesting is that I mentioned looking into the quieter villagers, and suddenly this happens.


Now, off for a look at Cailin.

[Kath]

I'm here SpM! Though this will only be a short visit I will be back later when I have a nice stretch of time to go through everything.

However since I am here for a few moments I would like to just say a couple of thing.

Glirdan (I think) you can't accuse SpM of beginning a bandwagon. That doesn't work. The first person to vote can't be bandwagonning!

Gil and Wayne's votes coming so close together is odd. Wayne could be trying to pull a Nilp (and seemingly succeeding, as I don't think anyone but Gil has voted for him?) but then do we consider him innocent as we do Nilp right now or do we consider him guilty and trying to bluff his way out of suspicion. The latter would seem odd as he hasn't been under much but it is possible.

morm - I'm not keen on double lynches. Yes they can be necessary but simply to take out quiet villagers? I know part of what you said was just to make a point but I'd rather give people a chance rather than lynch them straight off (and yes that's partly because I've been pretty quiet!).

That's about it except for one plea. Please can we not argue between ourselves too much? Querying the actions of person is fair enough, it must be done, but do it without acting as though you will suspect this person for all time unless they answer your questions immediately and absolutely. And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily - it's hard, I know, but we have to keep calm! Fighting between ourselves only serves to give the wolves a good laugh.

Back in a few hours.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes thereafter

1. Wayne - Wayne (Wayne - 1)
2. Wayne - Gil (Wayne - 2)
3. SpM - Malka (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
4. SpM - Glirdan (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
5. Cailin - morm (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 1)
6. Cailin - Nilp (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 2)

[The Saucepan Man]

Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart.... and you would be thoroughly justified in doing so. Rest assured, though, you won't be put to the trouble.

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.To be fair, she did attract two votes yesterday - only one less than the day's lynchee. One from mormegil, who has been pretty consistent in his suspicion of her and one from Shelob, who we now know was innocent (although that, of course, does not mean that she could not have been mistaken). And, if I recall correctly, dancing spawn had her suspicions of Cailin yesterday too.

My own suspicion of Cailin is a relatively new development. It started when I tried to work out why I had suddenly become such a strong suspect in the early discussions of today. Like Nilp, I didn't like the way that Cailin put the case against me, while claiming not to be making an accusation. When I looked back, it seemed to me that she had done much the same thing yesterday with regard to Shelob, while ultimately extricating herself from involvement in the lynching of an innocent. Mormegil's comments today on her therefore struck a chord with me. Although I would emphasise that I am not being swayed by him - I had separately reached the same conclusion.

Hmm, I must vote soon if I am to vote at all today. I have seen nothing to deter me from casting my vote for either Wayne or Cailin. And I am more inclined to vote for Cailin since Wayne, while acting strangely, is unpredictable by his very nature.

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

And finally (for now) ...

And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily ...I didn't react angrily because I assumed that I was under suspicion. I reacted angrily because I was under suspicion - and for pretty silly reasons in my opinion. But I am much calmer now. Thank you. :D

[the guy who be short]

All quotes are from Cailin unless stated otherwise. This is only from Today. Yesterday shall be analysed as soon as possible.

The first thing I notice is a confused post, amidst which one finds this:I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline.All these people attacking her and voting early are conscious that she cannot return to defend herself for a long time.

All other accusations of Cailin seem to refer to Yesterday. I will have to go investigate what she said yesterday that is so incriminating. Thus far, her words seem logical enough to me.

I will analyse Cailin's actions on Day 2 upon my return, presumable in an hour.

[the guy who be short]

SpM - You raise some good points.

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.I, in turn, see what you are saying. But early today, I mentioned that we should lynch some quiet people, and Cailin agrees. Then Gil, who is numbered amongst the quiet, votes for wayne. I think it could easily be an attempt to shirk off perceived pressure onto wayne, who is also amongst the quiet lynching candidates I proposed.

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.


An analysis of Cailin on day 2, in an hour!

[The Saucepan Man]

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.Yes, I did suspect Glirdan yesterday - for much the same reasons as you did. And he is by no means in the clear, as far as I am concerned. But my suspicions of him have lessened, largely because, while I see his reasons for voting for me as flawed, they strike me as the kind of reasons that a migusided innocent who has got his mind set on a particular person being guilty would say - see my post #195 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=444560&postcount=195) for more detail.

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.I don't ask, and wouldn't expect, to be excluded from consideration. But I would prefer that people consider the evidence and, if they decide to vote for me, do so with good reason, rather than because they think people do not have enough intiative to think for themseves or because something "isn't sitting quite right".

Aargh! The time has come for me to vote as I won't be back for the rest of the day. With trepidation (in light of the past days' experience) and for the reasons that I have already stated:

++ CAILIN

I suspect her more than I suspect any other at the moment.

If I don't make it through today and you guys end up lynching me, good luck to the innocents and curse you, you fiendish Wolves ...

[Garin]

Now is my most quiet time, for I am working. I'd like to reserve my vote for later to make it more meaningful, although I woulld like to get it over with.
I keep wanting to call Cailin, Anguirel by accident and couldn't understand why. Now I know why, because she seems so ANGry. I expect her to behave with the same bluster when she returns and won't vote for her until she does so.
Also, I propose that any villager that goes three days without voting should receive an instant lynch vote from us the next day. This is unacceptable, I have received condemnation for my relative silence and yet other people are managing to slide under the radar without a vote while the louder SpJ is about to be put on the slab.
This is why Wayne, Marc, Naria, Gil will top my list. Who am I forgetting? Well Kath came in momentarily.

[Naria]

Since I won't be around my computer this aft. I must vote now.

First just a couple of comments: I am silent but not to contribute any less to the discussion. I read over everyone's posts and try my best to understand what that person is saying. If I feel the need to make a big post then I will. If I don't do too much posting then it's striclty because I am confused about what is going on(this would be why I haven't done a real good job in some people's eyes). I am sorry if I am not "living" up to expectations. I usually go on gut instinct, mostly due to the fact that reading between the lines is not something that I am good at.

That being said I would like to bring up the point about using your own head and making your own decisions. I agree with this and will therefore use my own head and judgment(gut).

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

++Formendacil

[the guy who be short]

Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).Her first comment on Day 2 is an attack on morm for hypocrisy.

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.Good reasoning. And here we seen morm's knee-jerk reaction, without even the pretence of an explanation.

I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.
This is Cailin's post that allegedly influenced that lynching of Shelob:Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish.That is what a lot of the suspicions seem to be based on. Tens of these comments are made all the time by all villagers. This, in my eyes, hardly points to her guilt.

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).Here's something making me reconsider her innocence. Cailin was the first to mention Shelob's vote, then SpM did so, but this is the first real accusation.

Cailin also claims she is "genuinly concerning about" these: Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
GarinOf whom Garin is a fierce critic of her.

Furthermore, she expressed sincere doubt of morm.




My analysis stops there. All I find is more and more evidence pointing at morm. He has it in for Cailin. And it is plain that her mention of Shelob is hardly worth mentioning as a serious influence in lynching her.

Morm has constantly sought to attack Cailin, for two days, with little explanation.

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.No reasoning on Day 2. Just a vote. Why does morm have it in for Cailin? This, by the way, is the first example I can find of Cailin's alleged thought-steering.

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:
Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBSTo which he replied:TGWBSis pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little.The thing is, in my search, I could find no reference to this whatsoever. Cailin originally declares she's unsure of my innocence as you can never trust me, then goes on to say she believes in my innocence due to my posting record. The entire thing seems fabricated to me.

I know I was meant to analyse Cailin, but it has really led me off on a tangent and an attack of morm. He consistently accuses her with little evidence, and is behind the entire bandwagon at the moment when there is nothing pointing at her guilt, in my eyes. His fabrications are further reason to suspect him.

Enough so that I will abandon my pursuit of Glirdan and vote

++MORMEGIL

In the hope that others follow my example.



Though it wont look it, this will probably be a crosspost with many people. The last post I can see is SpM's at 5:26. The internet is playing up and I can't refresh the page to see what else may have popped up. Sorry.

[Garin]

Posted by TGWBS: Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her. (Re: Cailin)
Um, she started it. Plus, I'm not that fierce, she has me beat in that category.

[Cailín]

You are all fools. Pretty much.

(And indeed Garin - I am a little angry. Just because I am always lynched as an innocent and people say I am so 'cunning', while the only time I was a wolf, I did not survive past Day 1. However, I am not sure whether I deserve all your comments and would like to ask you -seriously- to stop making this so personal. For me, it is not. I love the game and can get really into it. I'm sorry if I hurt you.)

I came back a little early... and see Mormegil has managed to convince almost the entire village of my intelligence, wisdom and cunningness. Wow. Thanks. Though actually, sir, I think you far more deserve such descriptions. And though I feel I might be a little prejudiced, since I have been your target for a while... I cannot help but feel that TGWBS might have a point.

I think I now have a fair idea who is who in this village, and yet am afraid to speak up. Whatever I say right now, it seems like it will never be enough. If I act aggressively, Garin will be convinced I am guilty. If I don't say anything, I am sneaky and manipulative.

Mormegil, I think you are a wolf. I think Garin is either also a wolf or just rather blind. I think Spawn might be a wolf. And if she is not, then one of the quiet people. Wayne is possibly the Cobbler.

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Hopefully I shall be back soon with a bit more.

[Formendacil]

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

Your vote for me, Naria bothers me not in the slightest... but the attitude of both you and the Saucepan Man is... amusing.

You accuse me of being useless and confusing. Confusing... well, I'll admit to that. But useless?

So what!

This, my dear Villagers, is a game of "bandwaggoning, accusations, and lies". I see no reason to include sensible analysis in my posting when my "sensible" analysis, by and large, tends to be off the mark, misleading, and -frankly- suspicious.

I'm somewhat insulted that some of you seem to think me a Cobbler. Seriously, do you honestly think I'd be such a blatantly obvious Cobbler? Give me some credit people! I may not be a genius, but I have some skill in this game... If I were being a Cobbler, I'd be as quiet, normal, and devious as I could be. And you have my full and explicit permission to drag up that quote against me in any future game.

Nay, dear villagers, I am a completely ordinary innocent. Believe it if you like, deny it if you don't. The truth will out!

Now, I have no weighty or detailed analysis to offer regarding anyone. The Saucepan Man asks that I take a closer look at him, and not base my opinions off of his voting record or normal style.

However, I say that these are really the ONLY things we can go off of- at least in the Saucepan Man's case. He is too canny a person, both in general and as a player, to let things slip when he's keeping a secret.

Of course, one can hardly say that voting for known Innocents a Werewolf makes. And, as far as normal style goes, the Saucepan Man has as bad a record as any of voting in completely the wrong direction.

The thought occurs to me... just now... that MAYBE the Saucepan Man is the Cobbler. Past experience suggests that he would be a very quiet, devious Cobbler, nudging things off course rather than causing mayhem. Hmm... yes, I could see him as a Cobbler, if not a Werewolf.

Overall, I see no REAL reason to kill off Saucey today, other than the fact that he occassionally irks me. He seems, overall, to be innocent. And, if guilty, I'd peg him as Cobbler, rather than a Werewolf.

But why listen to me? After all, I'm not exactly setting out to be helpful!

[malkatoj]

I'd like to mention (again) that my vote was CROSS-POSTED with SpM's long rant/defense.

Spawn: Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now.

It's not just the swaying-it's who the votes are for, too, plus his general attitude. He seems wolfish, and if it's just his normal personality, I would have no way of knowing.

Glirdan: malka - Finds it wierd that Wayne is pulling a Nilp and thinks that Gil's voter for him is even more odd. Wants to point out that, even though she doesn't believe that SpM is a Wolf, he was the one who started the Shelob and Crombie bandwagons. Agrees that we should double lynch, SpM and Wayne preferably. Votes for Saucy because he led the bandwaggoning.

I don't know what I said, but I *meant* that it doesn't necessarily make him a wolf. It seems likely. And I guess I changed my mind about the best candidate for lynching between the post and the vote.

[Garin]

Cailin,
You sound sad and angry, indeed.
I apologize if seem to get too personal, I am just reacting to someone who wished me dead. This is why I tried to keep my mouth shut this game, I forget how young and sensitive some of the Downs members are. Anyways, best of luck to you. I plan to keep to my pledge not to post a retribution vote and hope there is not a double lynch in the making.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow, a lot of posts. That's great. The bad thing is that I have to vote now.

I shall leave profound analyzing for next Day if I'm not already walking in the flower gardens of afterlife by then. Those who have gathered votes are:

Wayne:
Wayne is possibly the Cobbler. In that case Gil probably isn't a wolf or then it's a nice bluff, since I'd assume that the wolves keep an eye on cobblerish behaviour and are careful not to get their ally dead. In any case, I'd be glad to know what Wayne is, so we would have one quiet mystery less to solve.

Formendacil: I haven't been suspicious of him and I don't have a reason to start suspecting him now either. Might bear watching in the future, although I believe some things he has said make sense.

Sauce: Hasn't been suspicious thus far.

Cailín: I was really suspicious of her yesterDay and though I still suspect her, Shelob's innocence was a blow to my theory and now I'm not so sure what to think of Cailín.

mormegil: Well, TGWBS makes some good points about morm, but since I don't have time to go through his posts with a fine-tooth comb myself, I don't want to vote for him toDay.

Nine votes have been cast, six are left.

Currently Cailín has three votes, Sauce and Wayne two, morm and Formendacil one. Practically anything can still happen and toDay's voting should be interesting to analyze later since all of the lynching candidates are so different.

I trust that there won't be as many people who don't vote as yesterDay, so I'll make a tie between Cailín and Wayne. I'm interested to see which direction the voting shall go from here.

++WaynetheGoblin

[the guy who be short]

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan ManWhile I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

[Cailín]

While I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

Do you want a long analysis or the honest truth? Because of lack of time, I shall settle for the second.

1) You made some valid points against Glirdan. HOWEVER I know Glirdan to be a rather fickle player and not always mindful of each and every word.

2) I believe him.

3) He thinks me innocent. Reasonable or not, this definitely helps.

4) I would never in a million years believe Wolf-Glirdan to be brave enough to go up against the Saucepan Man

5) He made a good impression on me on Day 1 - despite his odd vote - and I believe he merely got himself in to trouble trying to explain that vote.

That is all I am afraid.

[mormegil]

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS

I thought I had answered this for you my friend but I will explain it again, perhaps more succinctly. What I found in her post was a summary of your posts and therein I found it odd the amount of posts you had given but the low quality of what had been said. Up to that point you really hadn't given much by way of helpful comments. Having said that I am currently inclined to call you one of the more helpful villagers albeit misguided. You are undertaking lenghtly and insightful analysis which is generally helpful. I also commented, if you remember, that since I had posted that I noted the change in your behavior which seems good but could be construed as suspicious. For you are responding or reacting, if you will, to what I criticized in your behavior.

Let me explain more clearly, I saw you moderately suspicious because you weren't analyzing anything but speaking a lot. As a wolf TGWBS you saw that and thought 'oh I better change that so they don't continue to notice it'. Now there is the more benign stance that you simply didn't have much time the first day or two but have since been able to dedicate yourself more fully. I believe the latter but will not forget the potential of first possibility as well.

What I do find interesting is why you are so adamant to defend Cailin? You've associated yourself with her and if, as I believe, turns out to be a wolf you will be incriminated. And that is fine if you are a wolf, but if you are not I beg you to not do so as it will cause an innocent death.

Conclusion: While not fully sure I find TGWBS most likely innocent and that he's being very helpful if somewhat misguided.

My suspicions of Cailin I have posted and stand behind them. She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal. This is behavior I would anticipate seeing in a wolf. This is why I went for her. I've kept Glirdan and others on my radar but she is really sticking out to me. Plus as I've said ever since day 1 she didn't sit right with me. I also stated that on day 1 so you accuse me of following up on what I proposed? That seems a bit off the mark to me. I would rather have somebody declare their intentions and stick to it if they find it justified than not.

[mormegil]

3) He thinks me innocent. Reasonable or not, this definitely helps.



This may be a bit pedantic but come on doesn't this appear wolfish to anybody else? You want to keep him around because he thinks you're innocent? :rolleyes:

This does not appear be innocent to me at all!

[Cailín]

Wayne - Wayne
Gil - Wayne
Malkatoj - Saucepan Man
Glirdan - Saucepan Man
Mormegil - Cailín
Nilpaurion - Cailín
Saucepan Man - Cailín
Naria - Formendacil
TGWBS - Mormegil
Spawn - Wayne

Yet to vote:

Garin
Cailín
Marcolie
Formendacil
Kath

Just addressing another issue: my comment about SpM and Spawn has totally been misinterpreted. I was hoping to encourage everyone to make up their own mind… in a rather unprofessional way.

Mormegil - whatever I say, you will never believe me. But - is being non-commitical (just because you are honestly clueless) really worse than to keep acting on instinct when that will lead the village to its doom?

About Glirdan - I said I was just being honest. I know myself. And really, I think everyone is more inclined to believe those who seem to believe you.

[the guy who be short]

Plus as I've said ever since day 1 she didn't sit right with meAnd that is what your entire argument against Cailin comes down to! Through the last two days, all you can state is a bad feeling, and dress it up with minor attacks that could be applied to anybody!

She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal.As compared to the immense commitment and insight offered by posts from Gil, wayne, Naria and marco?

Nothing would please me greater than you coming up with an actual accusation based on some sort of logic, allowing me to believe in your innocence, morm. But until then - well, you're as plain a wolf as I've ever seen.

[Garin]

Unfortunately, I have a meeting in half an hour and I am torn in my voting. I want it to resonate but I am not convinced in either direction. I will avoid the whole coin tossing routine because it nearly got me lynched.

[mormegil]

But - is being non-commitical (just because you are honestly clueless) really worse than to keep acting on instinct when that will lead the village to its doom?

No it is not, but I don not believe that I am clueless. I am not act on instinct alone. I have attempted to give my reasons as to why I suspect you and as you say I won't believe you, it seems that you and TGWBS won't believe me.

As compared to the immense commitment and insight offered by posts from Gil, wayne, Naria and marco?

Ah, but there is one major difference, Cailin is being vocal. Now read more so you know what I mean. A moderately vocal person is less noticeable than a loud or silent person. We all comment on the silent and louds but rarely do we say 'oh look so and so is being neither loud nor quiet...they must be mother bear. No, furthermore it's a large group of people. Now the difference between Cailin and say Kath is the manner of their posts. Cailin is giving the pretense of being helpful and yet not committing to anything. Kath may not be the best example but you get my meaning....perhaps I could contrast her to you, although you are becoming one of us loud mouths (welcome to our fraternity :D) But the difference is that at least you are stating something and sticking your neck out to be seen. Cailin has yet to do that and fits perfectly into what I expect to see in wolves.

[mormegil]

Unfortunately, I have a meeting in half an hour and I am torn in my voting. I want it to resonate but I am not convinced in either direction. I will avoid the whole coin tossing routine because it nearly got me lynched.

I would recommend not being late but also voting. The lack of voting will increase suspicion of you and not provide the village with help. I care not which way you vote though as I stated I feel Cailin is guilty, I think that everybody should vote every time.

[Garin]

I wouldn't mine if Wayne were to die, but I have to back away from my sudden sympathy for her and go for for the most wolvish. I still remember her reaction to Valier's death and how she presumed it made her innocent. It seemed like a calculated wolf bluff. Methinks Valier followed her to a certain doom.
These are unretractable, right?
I tend to be sympathetic at the last moment and I wish her the best.

++Cailin

[Kath]

On the subject of non-voters I agree we need some system that discourages this. I don’t feel that double lynches are the way to go, but perhaps being bumped off by the mod if you have no reason might be. It’s probably too late to implement that though.

Cailin suspects Garin on account of his being constantly mentioned by Valier who was killed during the Night. Now, if we think that Valier was killed because she was thought to be the Seer then I’m not sure we can then suspect Garin, as it would be a brave wolf that killed someone who had been pointing fingers at him all day. Now it looks like she is accusing spawn and SpM (which is I believe how some people read that) but she is in fact just warning them of their ability to sway votes. This is a fair point as those who speak a lot are of course going to have more of an influence over the village than those who don’t, but it doesn’t mean they’re wolves. Thinks morm, Garin and spawn are wolves. I am inclined to agree about morm, but am less sure about Garin, and very unsure about spawn. Odd little list there. Thinks Glirdan innocent.

Formendacil turns up to insult the village and then flounces off. People have been accusing him of Cobbleresque behaviour and I must say that posts like that do make me wonder. Answers those who have been suspicious of him with flippant remarks and says he is too lazy to bother keeping up with the game but claims that were he a wolf he would bother. Warns against SpM, though reasoning is based only on the past. Disregards Naria’s vote and reiterates his warning about SpM. Not much reasoning but claims SpM could be the Cobbler.

Glirdan attacks SpM, though from what I can see he has no real reasons. The fact that SpM accused him through the Day but did not vote for him is odd, but he was not the first to vote for Shelob, so half the argument is missing. In answer to TGWBS he claims that his vote for SpM was to prevent both bandwagonning and double lynching (had he voted Valier), though it has been proved that the latter would not have occurred from his vote. He defends his vote by saying he suspected SpM all day anyway. After TGWBS catches him out, he claims that he has now noticed this and had previously miscounted the votes, now the two posts were 10 minutes apart so it is possible he went back and checked, but it could just be a shoddy defence. Tries to analyse Wayne’s vote and I agree with the idea that he could be trying to pull a Nilp, and thinks Gil is just voting for the sake of voting, which again I think is fair. Doesn’t agree with TGWBS that Nilp should be considered innocent but other than that thinks both he and Cailin are not suspicious. Not keen on Naria because she does no analysis or malka because she suspects one person but voted for another. Thinks morm has everything absolutely right, which from the bit he analysed means suspecting him is the right thing to do! Says nothing SpM has posted seems odd, but still doesn’t trust him – no reasoning here. Votes SpM because he was the first to vote for Shelob and Crombie (is that right) and has been too defensive.

TGWBS really isn’t happy about these voters who won’t affect anything, though admits that he voted for Shelob due to this and was proved wrong. He defends Nilp, and fairly I feel. Doesn’t suspect anyone who has voted for 2 innocents twice already, feeling that they’re just hapless innocents who don’t know any better, and agrees with Cailin about suspecting Garin. Is mostly suspicious of those who have remained quiet. Calls Glirdan out on his statement that a vote for Valier would have caused a double lynch. Would like to vote Glirdan, Wayne or Gil, due to lack of reasoning and insanity. Points out that those attacking Cailin know she can’t defend herself for a long time. Thinks Gil is trying to push suspicion off himself onto Wayne because the latter is quiet. Doesn’t suspect SpM. While analysing Cailin, can only find evidence that points to morm being suspicious due to his reactions and not explaining his reasoning for his constantly attacking Cailin. Votes morm, and from the analysis he did I can see why. The lack of explanations and almost vendetta like behaviour has me bothered. Attacks morm again for lack of logic and reason, and again I agree.

Wayne appears, apologises and votes for himself.

Gil appears 2 minutes later and votes for Wayne because he has no time. Says he thinks Wayne is a wolf and is trying to bluff us all.

Garin begins by refusing to defend himself against Cailin because she is mean. I’m not sure that is exactly fair, all she did was show that Valier had accused him in her posts. Says he voted for Shelob to save his own skin and agrees that the non-voters should be got rid of. What he says is perfectly understandable, it’s the way he says it that gets people on the defensive. Doesn’t like the idea of a double lynch and isn’t convinced that malka is innocent. Is happy to let Wayne die because he didn’t vote yesterDay and because he gives no reason for his vote. Decides to ignore Cailin’s aggressiveness (which I have yet to see) and says he will vote either Wayne or Gil because he won’t vote in retaliation. Refuses to vote SpM, wants to kill those who aren’t participating. If anyone’s aggressive I’d say it’s this guy right here! Thinks Form and Nilp innocent. Agrees with spawn that the Wayne-Gil thing seemed almost prearranged. Claims Cailin is very angry though I’ve not seen that.

Malka ensures she knows who’s dead :D Ah! It was malka that accused SpM of starting bandwagons, so my earlier comment about that being impossible is now directed at her. Wants people not to vote with SpM so he cannot control us, but does not think he’s a wolf. Well, ok, leaders aren’t always good, but as he says himself, we do need talkative people! No, we don’t have to trust them, but at least they’re saying enough that we can make something out of their words. And people have their own minds, whether they vote for someone another has already voted for is their own decision. Is quite keen on the idea of getting rid of Wayne and SpM via a double lynch, though she wants the whole village to agree to this first, which would be a good way of covering her tracks if this were done and both were innocent. Wants to get rid of Wayne but instead votes SpM ‘for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row’. Now either she has not understood the basic concepts of bandwagonning or this is one bizarre vote.

Morm sees Glirdan as very suspicious because of his argument for voting SpM instead of Valier, which I agree is pretty dodgy. Thinks Form is behaving oddly, again I agree. Wants to kill Wayne to remove the confusion he causes and while I think this may be an idea, making it into a double lynch I do not like. Double lynches are just too dangerous. Is then bothered by TGWBS’s requests for him to shed light on some of his previous comments, and seems overly annoyed about it. If the request was repeated then it was because TGWBS had received no answer, and so needed to ask again. However, he does answer, saying he found Cailin suspicious because she spoke a lot but added little, but then says she isn’t doing that anymore so his suspicion has abated. Then says he will continue to watch Cailin, but now seems to have no reason for doing so. Wants to keep malka under observation, in case her vote for Aiwendil was more than an accident, which I feel is a good idea, as while it could be an innocent mistake, it could be a bluff, though it is unlikely. Doesn’t understand the suspicion of SpM, and so looks at Glirdan and malka as suspicious as they have not really explained their votes. Thinks Cailin is trying to influence the village gently so as not to be seen doing it, now since she hasn’t made all that many posts at this point I’m not sure that’s fair. Votes Cailin based on his earlier reasoning. Since I found that flawed I don’t really think this a good vote. Thinks TGWBS innocent but misguided and stand by his accusation of Cailin because she is non-committal. I find this odd as I think she’s been pretty stable in her suspicions.

Naria explains her absence which she had previously warned about. Says she won’t analyse people since others do that but will post her thoughts. I would ask Naria that you do post your analyses, as those from others may be biased. Doesn’t like the double lynch idea. Thinks Form is suspicious and acting Cobblerish. Votes Form. She never did come post her thoughts about people, she may have forgotten but I find this odd.

Saucepan Man finds Valier’s death odd, and concludes that the wolves must have thought she was the Seer as there seemed no other reason. Therefore she must have accused a wolf, and this would point to Garin and also Wayne. Wonders if it was for a frame-up, but thinks this too much of an effort, and I agree, especially with it being so early on. Has a little rant to get things out of his system and that’s all good. I know I complain about loudmouths but that’s only because people don’t tend to look at them as being suspicious, and in this game that certainly isn’t the case! Is angry with Form for insulting the village, especially since he has offered few contributions of his own and those he does look decidedly suspicious. I must say I agree with this, Form is behaving very oddly. Defends not voting for Glirdan saying he didn’t want it to be a reactionary vote and that he found Shelob more suspicious, fair enough. Another one who is shocked at the voting turnout yesterDay, it was abysmal. Questions Glirdan’s having changed his mind over who to vote for and doesn’t think his answers to TGWBS’s questions really work, and again I agree. Also thinks Garin has been behaving rather arrogantly, but does defend him a little against Cailin, since he is obviously not going to do it himself. Feels that malka is innocent because she admitted her mistake rather than trying to cover it up. I’m not so sure about that. It sounds right though, I think I’m just getting paranoid! Would vote Wayne or Gil because they’re not helping but agrees that there is nothing concrete on them. Still thinks malka innocent. Disputes Glirdan’s logic, fairly I feel, as his logic does look flawed. Doesn’t think morm suspicious. Looks at TGWBS and Cailin because they brought up the suspicion against him, and is more worried about the latter because he thinks she may be subtly influencing the village. Thinks Nilp innocent but Form suspicious, I’m agreed on both points. Thinks spawn is talking sense and I agree but for that bit of confusion I mentioned. Narrows his options down to Cailin and Wayne, thinking that a wolf Wayne might try a Nilp to stay alive, but thinks it unlikely that both would be wolves so wouldn’t double lynch the two. Explains the development of his suspicion of Cailin, and fairly I feel, except that I don’t agree that she is trying to influence the village and so can’t accept that. Still unsure about Wayne. Also still unsure about Glirdan but thinks sticking to one person is the sign of an innocent rather than a wolf. Votes Cailin because he suspects her most. I respect the vote, as I understand how he got there with his reasoning, but as I don’t agree with the reasoning I can’t agree with the vote.

Marcolie apologises for her absence and claims ignorance for her lack of a vote.

Nilp thinks SpM and spawn are innocent, though perhaps not for good reasons. Thinks the wolves are killing the quiet ones so we will lynch the loudmouths for them, and if we continue in this vein that might just come true! Thinks those wanting SpM dead may be wolves, and so is looking at Glirdan, malka and Form. Thinks Cailin may indeed be influencing people subtly. Votes Cailin because he suspects her and because she already has a vote so it will be of the most use, though I’m unsure about that second point being a particularly valid argument.

Spawn warns against trying to escape responsibility for your vote and says those who vote SpM because of swaying will look bad to her. I agree, people have their own minds and can choose whether or not to be swayed by another’s arguments. Finds Glirdan and Cailin suspicious as they hung back on both days to observe the voting. Isn’t keen on the double lynch unless it rids us of two useless innocents, in which case perhaps Wayne and Gil? I wasn’t clear on that. Votes Wayne to make a tie. Odd but she says she wants to see where the voting goes.

Well, that got long! My apologies but I needed to really get a feel for what was going on today. Now, having looked through all the posts and putting my own viewpoint on things others have said my suspects have boiled down to:

Morm
Garin
Wayne

And I will vote
++MORMEGIL

Because I find his lack of reason and logic when he continually demands that from the very person he is voting for a bit hypocritical. Also other reasons that I have mentioned through this post but won’t reiterate because this is already so long I fear you’ll have fallen asleep long before this point!

Btw, didn't bold because this already took me an hour and I don't have time!

[Cailín]

I feared it would come down to this. I did not want the wolves to be able to get rid of me during Day time. So enough. I cannot be saved anymore, I fear, but tell me what to do, please. Should I make it a double lynch?

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

[Formendacil]

I feared it would come down to this. I did not want the wolves to be able to get rid of me during Day time. So enough. I cannot be saved anymore, I fear, but tell me what to do, please. Should I make it a double lynch?

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

Ranger?

Well that's no good... Can't go killing the Ranger.

Regretably, that means voting off Wayne. And while I hardly think Wayne a Gifted, he's- in all probability- an Ordinary Villager, and killing those off is never good, if you can help it.

But we can't help it...

++ WayneTheGoblin.

By the way, if this is a desperate move on your part, Cailin, to save your Wolfish skin for yet another night, I shall be very affronted. Just so you know.

[malkatoj]

So current votes:

SPM: 2
-Glirdan
-Malka

Wayne: 6
-Wayne
-Gil-Galad
-Spawn
-Formendacil
-Cailin
-Marcolie

Cailin: 4
-Mormegil
-Nilp
-SpM
-Garin

Formendacil: 1
-Naria

Mormegil: 2
-TGWBS
-Kath



*edited to include the last two votes*

[Cailín]

No Formendacil, it is no lie. This was the only way I could ensure to be able to do my job for one more Night - even though I shall die: protect the Seer. Thanks for believing me. :)

++WAYNE

Sorry Wayne. But you are suicidal and I have no choice.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Wow

I disearve to be killed for lack of helping this village
however, I'll try to do my part still.

And I'll vote now for

++Waynethegoblin

in order to have the possibility to kill a wolf instead of the ranger.

Cailin probably won't survive the night, but we still shouldn't kill off known innocents.


I need to risk Cailin being a wolf trying to hide behind that mask in order to try to not kill off the known innocents.



edit: cross posted with Cailin though it doesn't matter

[WaynetheGoblin]

im dead yes. I hope the wolfs win and the villagers lose you will lose villagers.

[Cailín]

Huh - well, I hope at least one of you intended to vote for someone else than Wayne. Otherwise, I should probably have kept quiet. :o

Edit: cross-posted with Wayne. Well, he does sound like the Cobbler.

[mormegil]

Cailin, I am so sorry. I had no idea and I hope that you can forgive me. Ack! This is why every game I tell myself to be less forceful and yet I do not do so. I'm sorry and I hope that this doesn't lead to our doom. I am sorry! :(

[Garin]

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.
I believe you Cailin. Now, after Wayne's 'retarded' post I see that I have made a horrible decision, I didn't know my meeting would get out early and I could have waited longer before voting. I shhould have gone with my initial statement long ago to vote for Gil or Wayne.

[Cailín]

Well, it is almost worth getting killed just to see everyone apologising. :D

Blah. No matter, Mormegil - whether you are wolf or no. Been there.

[Meneltarmacil]

Villagers, please cease posting. The votes will be totaled and a death scene posted shortly after this post.

[Meneltarmacil]

"I'm a wolf!" shouted the town geek, wimp, and nerd. "Lynch me!"

"Good luck with that," Nilpaurion Felagund remarked.

"Why exactly should we lynch you, as opposed to the last suicidal mainiac?" asked Formendacil.

"Because this +5 Amulet of Lycanthropy Detection glows in my presence?" WaynetheGoblin offered.

"Good enough," said Kath. "Lynch the wolf!"

"Hey, this isn't fair!" Nilp shouted.

Naturally, Cailín agreed with the decision to lynch the geek, wimp, and nerd, as she would survive. The villagers grabbed Wayne and hauled him off to the gallows.

"This won't work," protested Wayne. I'm wearing a +3 Necklace of Life Preservation and a +5 Cloak of Choking Resistan---GACK!"

The villagers had already hung him, revealing him to be a perfectly Ordinary Villager.

Once again, the villagers didn't have much luck.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 11

Night 4 beginneth. Ranger and Hunter, please stop PMing. Wolves, please commence PMing. Wolves, Ranger, Hunter, and Seer, please send me some names.

[Meneltarmacil]

Cailín paced back and forth nervously, watching for any sign of the Wolves. As the Ranger, it was her task to protect the villagers from wolf attacks. She suddenly heard a loud CRASH from behind her and turned around to see what had happened.

At that moment, two of the wolves sprang out of the shadows on cue. The third one had provided a distraction for the Ranger. Cailín drew her sword to battle them, but the third wolf leaped on her from above, knocking her down.

The wolves, however, decided not to kill her just yet.

"So, she thinks she's a mermaid, huh?" one of them said to the other.

"She'd better hope she actually has gills," the other one said.

With that, the wolves tied her to a large rock and threw her into the sea. As she was not actually a mermaid, she drowned.

In the morning, the villagers gathered in horror to see Cailín's armor and weapons lying on the ground near the cliff with a note from the wolves describing what had transpired and adding that the village was doomed. There would be no more protection from wolf attacks in the Nights to come.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 10

It is now Day 4. Villagers, please begin posting. Hunter and Ranger may now PM each other; Wolves may not.

EDIT: Actually, the Hunter and Ranger may not PM each other, due to the fact that the Ranger is dead. Oops.

FURTHER EDIT: Removed some names...thanks, morm.

[mormegil]

I feel horrible for the role I played in Cailin's death. I knew she was acting odd but I didn't think at all that it was because she was gifted. She seemed much more wolfish to me. I've been thinking for the last day and I really don't know where to go now. I'm feeling a bit of a lack of confidence in my abilities and really am unsure of who might be a wolf now.

The comment yesterday caught my attention from Formendacil that said something like 'wouldn't he be smarter than act the way he is if he were a wolf'. Given I think Formendacil a very intelligent person bu I just don't see that he wouldn't act that way if he were the wolf or cobbler. He thrives on bluffing. But again I hesitate to go after somebody due to the tantamount mistake I made. :rolleyes:


Edit: Menel you still have Wayne and Cailin on the living list.

[Gil-Galad]

oh wow... we lost our first gifted... and wayne was just playing stupid... don't know why, just lost all hope... well maybe jsut don't listen to me anymore...

[malkatoj]

I'm about to head off to my dinner of awesomeness, so I don't really have time to make a detailed post, but I figured I'd drop in.

Cailin's death, tragedy as it may be, is hardly a surprise--as a known gifted, she would be first on anyone's list. However, this leaves us with absolutely no trail. Anyone (well, any wolf) would have killed her so we don't know who they are from it.

My suspect list right now consists of TGWBS and Spawn. SpM's moved down quite a bit as his defense was well-reasoned and not just a 'hey don't lynch me!' post. I'm also growing more suspicious of Gil-Galad, simply because his posts don't help anyone at all, though I still think it more likely that he's a cobbler trying to distract us.

I have absolutely no idea when I'll be back on, but I'll be looking carefully at certain people (and everyone, actually, but some people more than others) before I vote.

[Kath]

Ok I've waited about as long as I can. Since there have only been 3 posts I can't use anything said toDay to make my mind up. Therefore:

++MORMEGIL

For the same reasons as yesterday.

(I know this is shockingly early - check out the other thread for why.)

[The Saucepan Man]

Ah, the irony of it. All those fine legal speeches at the outset counselling against the lynch mob mentality because it was most likely to end in the death of innocents and now I myself have the blood of three innocents on my hands.

I had no idea that Cailin was one of our Gifted villagers and I strongly doubt that the Wolves did either. As far as I can see, she sensibly left no clues as to her identity. I am truly sorry for my part in her death.

Ah well, we must press on with our endeavours to find the Wolves and perhaps avenge her and the others that have died. Though I hesitate to take up my own role in this once more, as I have made such poor choices so far and am wearied by it.

Here are yesterday's votes, for what they are worth:

1. Wayne for Wayne (Wayne-1)
2. Gil-Galad for Wayne (Wayne-2)
3. Malkatoj for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-1)
4. Glirdan for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-2)
5. Mormegil for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-1)
6. Nilp for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-2)
7. SpM for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3)
8. Naria for Formendacil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1)
9. TGWBS for mormegil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Wayne (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
11. Garin for Cailin (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
12. Kath for mormegil (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
13. Formendacil for Wayne (Wayne-4, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
14. Cailin for Wayne (Wayne-5, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
15. Marcolie for Wayne (Wayne-6, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)

I fear that they will tell us little. I have been carrying out some research into voting patterns overnight and will share my conclusions shortly, once I have collated them into something intelligible.

[The Saucepan Man]

You know, despite our best endeavours to spread the voting on Day 1, it is now looking very much (at least from my perspective) like not one vote was cast for a Wolf. And I suspect that the following Days were not much different. Let me explain how I have reached this conclusion.

On Day 1, of 17 votes cast, 14 were for people that we now know to be innocent. That's 82% of the votes on Day 1 for known innocents! The remaining three votes were cast for me and Nilp. Since I am fairly certain of Nilp's innocence, that means that, from where I am standing, not one Wolf was voted for on Day 1.

Day 2 was a bit better. Of 12 votes cast, 6 were for known innocent (50%), or seven from my perspective as one vote was cast for me.

On Day 3, we had a relapse. Of 15 votes cast, 10 were for known innocents (66.6%), or 12 (80%) from my perspective.

Overall, out of a total 44 votes cast over the three days, 30 have been for known innocents. That's 68%. For me, the figure rises to 34 (77%).

Considering that not all of the votes for those whose identity is not yet known will have been for Wolves, it is clear that we do not have a very good strike rate.

So, what does that tell us?

1. While voting patterns are normally of some help in finding Wolves, that is only the case when there are Wolves among those who are in the running and/or when we actually manage to find a Wolf. As matters stand, given our poor strike rate, the voting patterns are about as much use as a post by Formendacil. :p ;) (That's unfair - he was actually rather constructive in the latter stages of yesterday. Although the comparison may not be so unfair, as there may be something we can learn from the voting patterns, as I hope to show.)

2. The number of innocents that a person has voted for is, in these circumstances, not a particularly useful guide for determining who might be a Wolf. Four of us have voted for three innocents (mormegil, dancing spawn, Garin and myself). I doubt that any more than one, at most, of these is a Wolf. Shelob, a known innocent, cast both of her votes for innocents. And Cailin, also a known innocent and our esteemed Ranger, cast two of her three votes for innocents. Two other villagers - Formendacil and Kath - have voted two out of three times for innocents. In fact, only two villagers have not voted for a known innocent - Glirdan and Naria. And I (although I alone) know that Glirdan has in fact voted for an innocent twice (with one "no vote").

3. In light of the way that the voting has gone, there has been little need, if any, for Wolves to vote to go out of their way to get an innocent lynched. We have done that for them.

I conclude from this that we should perhaps not be looking at those who have voted on a number of occasions for known innocents. In the circumstances of our past three days' voting, this would have been unnecessarily risky behaviour for the Wolves. It seems to me that they are much more likely to have been placing "safe" votes, since we have given them the opportunity to do just that.

I acknowledge that these musings might be seen as self-serving, given that I have voted for three different known innocents. But I hope that you will see that there may be some merit in them. And perhaps they might actually help us to bag a Wolf today.

More in a bit with my thoughts on individual villagers - for what they may be worth. :rolleyes:

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Interesting post, Sauce. I see we have been thinking about the same thing yesterday.

From the voting patterns of DAY 1 and 2--this was before I saw the results of DAY 3--there were two groups of two people that leapt to me. Yes, they really did.

Note this (known innocents in underline):

DAY 1
1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. WaynetheGoblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

DAY 2
1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Block A: Kath - Garin

DAY 1: Garin votes for Valier
Kath seals Abercrombie's fate.

DAY 2: Kath votes for Valier
Garin seals Shelob's fate.

NIGHT 3: Valier is killed by the Werewolves.

Block B: Glirdan - Formendacil

DAY 1: Form votes for Valier (well, this is irrelevant)
Glirdan votes for SpM

DAY 2: Form votes for SpM for 'controlling the game.'
Glirdan is silent.

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

Block B is still unconvincing for me. Hmmm, but does mormegil's attack on Cailín fit the second scenario? . . . No, his attack on her began even before she pointed at Sauce.

Okay, I'll be back in a few hours for more thoughts and a vote.

Don't change the channel!

[The Saucepan Man]

As much as Cailin's redoubtable intelligence concerned me when I feared her to be a Wolf, I trust it in one that I now know to have been innocent. Armed with the knowledge of her innocence, I respect her judgement.

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)Setting myself aside (as it is for you to decide whether you trust me), I am inclined to view each of these villagers favourably for the time being, both on the basis that Cailin trusted them and on the basis of my own instincts (although they have not exactly served me well so far :rolleyes: ).

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ;) ).

TGWBS has, after a slow start, talked little but good sense. I agree with almost everything that he has said. His conclusions on mormegil are perhaps an exception, but I can certainly see how he got there. If he is a Wolf, he is playing an exceedingly good (albeit fiendish) game.

My original suspicions of Glirdan lessened considerably yesterday. And, the more I think about it, the more his behaviour looks to me to be that of an innocent. I do not think that a Wolf would have pressed the case against me so strongly over the course of three Days, since he would immediately have been under suspcion were I to have been lynched. As I have said, there has been no need, given the way that the voting has gone, for the Wolves to have taken such risks. I know that this will not help others' conclusions about Glirdan, but it greatly assists me.

TGWBS made some good points in Kath's favour yesterday. Her votes, and particularly her Day 1 vote, look decidedly un-Wolfish to me in light of what we now know. Her early vote today is slightly unnerving, but I am willing to accept that there are good reasons for it. Moreover, whether mormegil is innocent or guilty, it is a foolish vote for a Wolf. It is quite possible, as matters stand, that he will be lynched today and, if that happens, a Wolfish Kath risks either losing a partner in crime, if he is guilty, or attracting immediate suspision, if he is innocent. So I do not think that Kath is a Wolf.

I continue to believe malkatoj innocent, mainly for the Aiwendil/Kath vote, but also because it would have been unnecessarily risky for a Wolf to vote for me at such an early stage yesterday (again, that helps only me).

I am still inclined to believe Formendacil when he says that he would have been paying much more attention to proceedings were he a Wolf. I do not discount the possibility that he is bluffing. But, again, there has been little need for the Wolves to take any risks thus far, and Formendacil's approach has been risky, if he is a Wolf. Currently, I don't think that he is.

Which brings me to a difficult trio: mormegil, dancing spawn and Garin. Their votes, on the face of it, would appear to incriminate them. Although no more than mine. I can hardly accuse them of being Wolves on the basis of their voting record, given my own poor record. And, as I have said, their votes look to me to be unnecessarily risky ones for Wolves to have cast. Thus far, I have been inclined to trust mormegil and dancing spawn because they have seemed to me to be talking good sense. The fact that dancing spawn has hardly been considered as a possible Wolf concerns me, but I am prepared to give both of them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. If they are innocent, they are worth having around. Garin I have been less sure about and I will keep an eye on him, but I don't have any specific reason for suspecting him at present. I do, however, have a concern that there may be one bold Wolf (two at a stretch) amongst this trio.

So that leaves me with Gil-Galad, Naria and Marcolie Lamen.

Gil-Galad I have no idea about. Like Wayne, he can look suspicious when he is not. His stated reason for voting for Wayne yesterday (that he may have been a Wolf "pulling a Nilp") seems reasonable to me. And his behaviour to date has been much as I would expect from him. So, difficult to say.

Marcolie Lamen, I have no handle on. Her two "no votes" might be regarded as suspicious, and therefore unduly risky for a Wolf, but she has given reasons why she was not able to vote and they apply whether she is innocent or guilty. And it is difficult to draw any conclusions from her vote yesterday, as it was rather forced on her by circumstances. It is fair to say, however, that her voting record has attracted little attention to her so far.

My main suspicion at the moment, therefore, is directed towards Naria. Other than Glirdan (who has voted twice for me), she is the only one of us to have cast no vote for a known innocent. Which, on the basis of the theory which I outlined earlier, makes her very suspicous in my eyes. As has been noted on a number of occasions, her vote for Nilp right at the end of Day 1 was a very safe vote for a Wolf to make. She did not vote on Day 2. And her Day 3 vote for Formendacil, while it carried with it the possibility of getting him lynched, was actually very unlikely to do so in light of the way that the day was going. I do not discount the possibility that it was a Wolf on Wolf vote.

So, to summarise (and excluding myself):

Probably innocent
Nilpaurion Felagund
TGWBS
Kath
Glirdan

Prepared to continue to give the benefit of the doubt
Formendacil
mormegil
dancing spawn
Garin

No idea
Gil-Galad
Marcolie Lamen

Probably a Wolf
Naria

Note that I think it unlikely that our Wolfish trio comprises Gil-Galad, Marcolie Lamen and Naria, so there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, elsewhere on my list. Probably among the four that I am currently giving the benefit of the doubt to - problem is, I have no idea which.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ;) ). (SpM)You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly? Awww . . . :D

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Sauce is like a lawyer presenting a case everyday to a jury. Unfortunately, the jury thinks he's not been doing good, so it almost decided to kill him.

spawn . . . well, if I were to enumerate her positive traits, the Downs might collapse on itself and become an internet blackhole. So . . . she consistently makes good sense, to me at least.

Garin is Garin. See previous game, and his junior game.

daga'y is quite fond of me, like in the previous game. Why? What do you see in me?

mormegil is scary. Always has been for me, 'cept when we were Shirriffs.

Kath is confusing. :D

Glirdan, too.

Gil-galad . . . no comment.

Naria makes some sense, but posts very little to go on. See previous game.

Marco . . . well, haven't played with her yet. Sorry.

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

[The Saucepan Man]

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly?Repeated stabbing would be to good for you. On further consideration, perhaps I should just bar you from the Quiz/Quotes Rooms altogether if you turn out to be a Wolf ... ;)

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.Indeed. Your own post bears you out on this. :D

Interesting thoughts, Nilp. I shall muse them over.

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.The way I currently see it, the Wolves have not actually been doing much to attack innocents in any concerted way during the day. They have most likely left that to the innocents themselves (we have been unwittingly obliging in this regard) and concentrated on laying low. :rolleyes:

You will all no doubt be relieved to hear that my legal duties (RL: job) will prevent me from participating much tomorrow. I will get a chance to look in during the afternoon and will certainly take into account all that has been said when I cast my vote.

If I were to vote now, it would be for Naria. But that could change, depending upon how today's dicsussions go.

[mormegil]

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf? ;)

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

This is what I was trying to get at before but I didn't say it as Nilpy as Nilp said it.

SpM I like most of your thoughts and they seem to make some sense to me. Where I disagree is how many people you are willing to consider innocent. I for one have not and will not give Malka innocent status based on her vote for Aiwendil. We are far to willing to do this and I have warned against it adamantly but nobody seems to listen to this.

I do agree that TGWBS is innocent and most likely Nilp only because he seems to be very helpful, which is so odd that I don't know if he might be a wolf...this new behavior confuses me. Kath I'm thinking is innocent but I don't know if I'd put her in that category yet.

Looking over Kath's post (you know the long one) I found something that strikes me as odd. She doesn't like my reason for voting for Cailin and votes for me based on that, yet SpM and I seemed to think very similarly throughout the day and SpM used, in my opinion, similar logic as mine, however more well articulated. Yet Kath doesn't seem to suspect him, nor does she seem to suspect anybody else who voted Cailin. I'm not saying that Kath is guilty or that SpM, Nilp, Garin and any other that may have voted for her are guilty but I am saying that my track record does not make me guilty as it doesn't mean that the others are necissarily guilty. I was getting annoyed with TGWBS's requests because I found them repetative and frequent. I thought I had answered his queries, yet he asks again for the a response. I try to be subtle yet it doesn't work so I am forced to be more overt.

[Glirdan]

This is not good, not good at all. Cailin the Ranger... Well, she definetly didn't come off as a Gifted. And now the village is definetly in trouble. All I have to say is that the Hunter should remain hidden as well (obviously) the Seer. We need to get these Wolves and fast.

Something is still not sitting right with me about SpM. I'm very surprised that he's not been lynched yet. This could mean a one of two things. One, he's a Wolf. Two, he's been suspicious of a Wolf and it's to dangerous to attack him because it will lead to many clues. In answer to SpM's question from yessterDay:

I wish you would explain this.

It is not about your Day 1 approach. I'm not quite sure what it is. I think it's mostly that fact that you are still alive toDay. I would have thought that thw Wolves would have been smart enough to attack yourself, morm and spawn early on and get you out of the way. But as I said above, that's only one of two possibilities and now, I'm sort of leaning towards the second option. However, that does not mean you're completely out of my suspicions.

It is way to quiet toDay and I must vote soon and I really don't have much to go on. So I might end up voting for SpM or Gil. His vote yesterDay was rather odd. Like he was really anxious to fet rid of another innocent. I'm actually leaning towards voting Gil right now. I will wait a little longer, but then I must vote.

[Glirdan]

Grrrr!!! I wish people would speak!! Now I have to vote and with not a whole lot to go on either!! I shall do as I said above.

++Gil

For reasons stated above.

I'm afraid that I won't be back at all toDay. I wish you the best of luck my friends. May we finally find one of those fiends and lynch him/her properly!!

~Glirdy~