Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[The Saucepan Man]

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.Hmm, another thing to consider. Could be a bluff ...?

[Boromir88]

Aiwendil, I think we always have to consider why someone like Sauce is still alive. The way I've always seen things (and debate with me if you like) why would the wolves kill someone who can be a big influence over the village if that person hasn't caught on to a wolf? Understand what I'm saying?

There's no reason for the wolves to kill someone like Sauce if he hasn't lynched a wolf yet. Once a wolf goes down then I would expect Sauce (or someone like him) to be a prime wolf kill at night. But, there's no reason for the wolves to kill an influential player, that knows innocents will be willing to trust his judgement if he/she hasn't found a wolf.

Of course someone like Sauce who can be so influential (whether he intends to be or not) makes a scary wolf player.
This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.
If you're not opposed would you be in favor of sacrificing yourself for the benefit of the village? If it comes down to it.

One thing I will make clear though, before I depart again...Let's not turn this day into a lmp bandwagon voting (I'm speaking to you innocents out there). It tells us nothing if we have lmp accumulating a wide majority of the votes. By jumping onto the lmp train will only help the wolves and gives us no insight into today's voting.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:
I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan.

"Exonerate"? You continue to (wilfully?) misconstrue me. Yesterday, my top suspects were Garin and Formendacil. As I mentioned several times, I also suspected LMP and, to some extent, Tar; I simply didn't think them as likely to be wolves as the former two. At that point, the only thing that looked particularly suspicious about LMP to me was his vote for Boromir.

Matters are a bit different toDAY. For again on DAY 2 LMP had a sudden change of heart near the end of the DAY - and one that brought him more into line with public opinion. Perhaps he's simply being suggestible. But LMP is clever, and I doubt that he would be so easily swayed.

So toDAY, LMP is certainly one of my top suspects. I think that lynching him toDAY might not be a bad idea at all. (I suppose now you'll accuse me of flip-flopping . . .)

Call me stubborn if you must, but Garin also still looks distinctly wolvish to me. He's voted for Boromir twice now, but with little apparent reason. The only clear charge against Boromir that I can gather from Garin's posts is that Boromir defended himself when Anguirel attacked him. Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

. . . which brings me to Farael. SPM has made a good point about him - namely, that what he's doing looks like an excellent tactic for a wolf. Pick a single target and go after him relentlessly. It would have several advantages for a wolf: 1. it's unexpected; 2. it will probably be deemed "bold" and perhaps "over-bold" (but is it really?); 3. the wolf thereby avoids getting engaged in any discussion outside his specific, chosen topic. Of course, Farael has backed off a bit toDAY and is now discussing other villagers. A "flip flop"? I would certainly be well within my rights to make the same charge against him that he made against me. But of course I don't think it's unreasonable to change your mind from time to time. I'll be interested to watch Farael now, though, and see how he fares when he's not just attacking me.

My other suspect from yesterday was Formendacil. He still looks suspicious to me. He's been fairly quiet, which may mean he's trying to "fly under the radar". I do understand and sympathize, though, that he's not feeling well. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.

The Saucepan Man wrote:
Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook.

All right, point taken. Nonetheless, I have come under suspicion. Unless I'm much mistaken, you have not. The closest I can find is LMP's statement early on that he found something "off" with you. Much as LMP is looking lupine to me right now, I can't help but think that maybe he was right. Actually, there are two fairly curious things to note here. One is the fact that the wolves haven't killed you yet, despite the fact that you've been under no suspicion - which, I'll grant, may not be all that strange. It is only DAY 3, after all. What worries me more is the fact itself that you haven't come under any real suspicion. Are we all simply so accustomed to SPM being innocent that we cannot conceive the possibility that he's a wolf? I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.

As for everyone else - I'm afraid I've spent far too much time examining the few that I suspect and far too little looking at everyone else. In particular, I want to go back and take a closer look at Spawn, Eomer, and Kath - about whom others have made some interesting points.

To summarize, then, I'd say that my top suspects at this point are:
LMP
Garin

And my not-so-top suspects (but suspects nonetheless) are:
Formendacil
Farael
SPM

Edit: crossed with Boromir

[Garin]

Sauce said: Actually, I rather think that I am ever destined to be an ordinary villager

I agree. What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.

I'm inclined to always think you are an ordinary villager, but that could be a dangerous assumption.

[Garin]

Aiwendil: Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

It looks like Garin is just being consistent. I don't take my votes lightly and at least I haven't killed an innocent, unlike others.
If Boro ends up being innocent you are allowed to condemn me.
Our dearly departed Anguirel suspected Boro on both days and only voted for Lhuna because Boro hadn't a chance of being lynched that day.
You reasoning is very specious.
If I was a wolf I wouldn't vote so early against someone who seems to have turned his gaze onto someone else and thusly raise his ire.

Edit: I'm starting to regret I already voted, by the way. I just need to help someone move to a new apartment real-time tomorrow so I am not sure If I could get back at a later date. This might be the last you hear from me although I hope to put up a substantial post before then ... no promises. Moving is a very unpredictable thing. I know this is a strange edit but I might need to triple post if I can find the strength to stay up a little longer.

[littlemanpoet]

I see SPM's post #250 addresses some of the same things I've been finding.

After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions:

Innocent:
SPM
Boromir
Tar-ancalime
Spawn
Aiwendil


The following individuals are probably innocent, based on their less than thoroughgoing contributions.

Probably innocent:
Celuien (reasoned and helpful - the seer issue is a red herring)
Farael (forthright and trying to do his part)
Formendacil (harder to say, but his defense for Day 1 voting seemed reasonable and persuasive)
Glirdan (started to seem suspicious at first, but began to seem more helpful and contributing)
Kath (on the strength of believing in me)
Mormegil (I would have him on the 'clearly' list except that he accused for one person then voted for another on Day 2)

That leaves three individuals about whom I have not been able to conclude clear or probable innocence:

Suspicious:
Garin
Eomer
Nilpaurion Felagund

1. Whom have the known innocents suspected besides each other?

Lhunardawen: Garin, Tar-ancalime (2)
Anguirel: Boromir (2)
Holbytlas: Tar-ancalime (1)

This was not as helpful as I had hoped.

2. Who has defended whom? ....are there any patterns?

Celuien gives a reasoned defense of Aiwendil against Farael. The defenses are all reasoned. Not much help here.

3. Who has accused whom? .... are there any patterns?

Yes. The primary pattern is that the werewolves have been able to avoid the spotlight because of all the accusations flying. The werewolves, I believe, have not accused anybody. Except for in one case: Spawn's post # 190 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448492&postcount=190), in which she sifts through Eomer's words, revealing a lot of dicey stuff. See point 9 below.

4. Who has voted for whom? .... any patterns?

-Eomer's Day 1 vote for Lhuna came 2nd after the trusted SPM's; safe - meanwhile his reasoning is, shall we say, dubious. Eomer's Day 2 vote for Lhuna also came 2nd, after Glirdan's.
-Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness.
-Nilp voted for Farael on Day 1. It is likely that one of the werewolves did cast the first and only vote for someone. On Day 2 Nilp voted for the innocent and now killed Anguirel. Having voted during the Day for the man you decide to kill that Night is perhaps a potentially costly mistake.

5. Who has suspected someone then backed off? Why?

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.

6. Who has built up a case against someone then switched to vote for another?

Mormegil built up a case against me on Day 2 then voted for the known innocent Lhuna. However, he has otherwise shown himself to be a helpful villager, contributing in his usual in depth fashion.

7. Who has tried to appear helpful without being?

Eomer. See point 9.

8. Who is riding others' waves?

No one enough, not even my three suspects, except perhaps in voting.

9. Who is playing both sides against the middle?

-Garin, as I have described earlier.
-Eomer: "I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." "Formy but probably not Formy." "Morm but probably not Morm; please explain, sir." See Spawn's post #190.

10. Who's choices for innocent and suspicious seem dubious?

-SPM's and Celuien's suspicion of Tar's vote of Eomer seems a bit dubious.
-Eomer's suspicions of Spawn, Tar, and Morm seem dubious ... to me; for those individuals seem reasonable, helpful, and innocent.
-Glirdan's post #
130 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448264&postcount=130) looks rather suspicious, especially in retrospect. Lhuna is "Definitely at the top of my list." .... to lynch? That is my only suspicion against Glirdan.

11. Who asks questions the answers of which help the werewolves?

Aiwendil in post # 7, question #1; answers to this question aid the werewolves in knowing what not to do. On the other hand, his other 2 points are good ones.

12. Who defends self too much?

-Celuien's "joking" defense against Morm's random accusations, placing the eye of suspicion on tar & Ang (who is innocent)
-Me.
-Eomer's defense (in post # 205 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448526&postcount=205)) against Spawn's accusation (#190) seems rather shrill.

General observations.

1. Nilp is not suicidal; that in itself is suspicious!

2. Eomer's assertion that werewolves are going to be timid is mildly suspicious, and effectively countered by the innocent Anguirel.

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

4. SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust. (EDIT: sorry, just noticed this is duplicated by point # 8)

5. When people are accused/suspected by more than one fellow villager, the likelihood of "getting defensive" seems to increase exponentially with each additional suspector. This is human nature. We should be more suspicious of someone who is too smooth.

6. Aiwendil's suspicions of tar-ancalime call into question my general sense that she's trying to do her part as an innocent. I still think he's reading too much into her posts, because she has contributed solid discussion.

7. Boromir's post #113 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448218&postcount=113) is solid, very solid. We all would do well to 'textbook' it for the rest of this holocaust....except for his suspicions of me, of course.

8. It's looking clearer and clearer to me that the "seer" discussion as a litmus test is a red herring and should be treated as such, especially since I find those in Boro's post #116 list as the top suspects in that regard, not to be very suspicious at all.

9. Nilp's post # 123 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448244&postcount=123) analysis of Day 1 vote looks reasonable on the surface, but seems flimsy upon retrospect.

10. I have never found the voting record by itself to be a persuasive tool for judging guilt or innocence, at least not until very late in the game, because there are simply too many possible variables and reasons for a person to vote for someone else, especially those "most incriminating" votes. Frankly, it seems that SPM's public service to the rest of us is more a mind-game he does for the fun of it than being useful; how many times as he been accurate in his resulting suspicions based on those voting record deductions?

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents.

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

[Garin]

Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness.

What is with the "people" who find a vote for Boromir suspicious when he fails to be a proven innocent?

I respect that Boromir has taken me off his suspicious list but that will definitely suit him when I am lynched and proven ordinary.

I really want to give LpM benefit of the doubt but turning on someone who is definitely not going to vote for him today is rather transparent,

Nice try Wolfie.

I don't want to cast around anymore pronouncements without the proper documentation, I just know that one or two of my detractors is a wolf. I also know one or two of those ignoring me is a wolf--they don't want to get entwined if their wolf friends can rally the village against me.

I suggest the village lynch littlemanpoet who seemed anti-Boromir until the bluff failed.

I might be awake a liitle bit more, we'll see.

[tar-ancalime]

from lmp:

After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions:

Innocent:
SPM
Boromir
Tar-ancalime
Spawn
Aiwendil

from Boromir:

Sauce, if you find lmp pulling a wolfish blind over our eyes I will put my trust in you. But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth.

Am I the only one who finds this sudden Boromir/lmp love fest a little disconcerting?

[Garin]

Tar sez:
Am I the only one who finds this sudden Boromir/lmp love fest a little disconcerting?

Agreed Tar, especially since they seemed to be at each other's furry throats earlier on....

EDIT: spelling

[mormegil]

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with each other. This again could be some wolfish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I will post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

I think I have it figured out, though this will most likely be written off as another 'crazy mormegil plan' that is naught but rubbish. Anyway, notice in this post how Garin begins to attack LMP but backs off and twists it to continue his assault on Boromir, who as many others feel seems more or less innocent. Later on we see Garin bring up more talk of LMP that falls short.

I really want to give LpM benefit of the doubt but turning on someone who is definitely not going to vote for him today is rather transparent,

Nice try Wolfie.

I don't want to cast around anymore pronouncements without the proper documentation, I just know that one or two of my detractors is a wolf. I also know one or two of those ignoring me is a wolf--they don't want to get entwined if their wolf friends can rally the village against me.

I suggest the village lynch littlemanpoet who seemed anti-Boromir until the bluff failed.

I think the wolves agreed last night that LMP was going to be dead today, so they better maneuver in a way that when he dies it won't implicate his comrades. Let me quote LMP. The whole post is pertinent but I will only quote a part.

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

I really think that Eomer, Garin, and LMP are the most suspicious today and LMP being the most likely to die. When we discover, as I believe we will, that he is indeed a wolf we will look back on his post and discover that his most recent posts contain his indication that Eomer and Garin are wolves, we will assume that no wolf would be so foolish and therefore right them off as innocents. I say this is madness to do this! I think we have our trio here and I suggest a full lynching without pause of LMP. I want to do it quickly before my compassion kicks in and I begin believing, again, his 'poor me' story. I said again because I have 'flip-flopped' on his guilt and innocence today and yesterday. I'm thinking that the plan would be to have Eomer come out and at least implicate on of the two fellow wolves today so the triangle would be complete. Now that I have said this it will be interesting to see what he says.

Now having said that I would like to address the ridiculous question of 'why is SpM still here'. Realize old friend that what I say I do so with the highest respect to you. But what makes SpM so great? Why should the wolves kill him so soon? He's intelligent, yes but is he infallible? No of course not. He is often wrong, as am I. He's a mover and shaker, if you'll forgive the expression, but I weary of the tedious question of why he and some others make it past night 1. Could he be a wolf, yes of course but just because he has survived doesn't make him one. There are many that are equally intelligent but aren't questioned as to why they are still alive. I believe, that wolves might leave him around knowing that this insane question will inevitably be asked. Now if we have no actual evidence against SpM let's drop it.

Disclaimer I am not defending SpM, per se, what I am doing is trying to dispel the tired notion that any longevity in SpM equals Lupinity (is that a word?) But honestly I've seen nothing out of the ordinary from him at all.


3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

This one goes back a ways and I know what is being said and question Nilp's integrity on his proclamations as Nilp may have noted.

Now of course I could be wrong but I think I've nailed at least two wolves in this scheme and will not back down today.

I also don't want to overlook mormegil. He's been flying under the radar for the entire game. I have nothing more concrete than that, but he's making me nervous.

HA! Even when I try or am forced to be quiet I never fly under the radar. My posts tend to be very accusatory and straight forward, never beating around the bush for me.

++LMP

While I suspect him to be a wolf I think that if he is innocent, which is improbable, his death will tell us much more. Remember that if there is a tie it better be LMP who reaches the vote count first.

[tar-ancalime]

from mormegil:

Quote:
Originally Posted by LMP

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

This one goes back a ways and I know what is being said and question Nilp's integrity on his proclamations as Nilp may have noted.

So, is this a reference to past lives? I noticed it when SPM first posted it but decided to keep quiet because I was afraid it might be one of those ill-advised early Gifted hints--indicating a Hunter/Ranger duo. But since others have noticed it, I'll pipe up and say that that's what it sounded like to me. Either a too-risky hint or a wolf throwing out hint-flavored bait.

Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm in a haste, so I'll say only a few things now.

1) No summary today. You talk so much that I have hard time keeping up anyway, and I can't be around toDay as much as I had hoped. Yes, pretty convenient, you think, for me to disappear just when people are getting suspicious of me, but my weekends just are like that.

2) Nilp is innocent.

3) The way Eomer responded to my accusations (or is it suspicions?) looked even more wolvish to me, and I shall come back to analyse that as soon as I can.

4) I think it's generally a good idea to look at those toDay, who have avoided the spotlight thus far.

[Glirdan]

Oh dear!! Ang is dead! Everyone who enjoys my music is being killed off one by one. :(

I must answer one short thing that Lmp has asked abaout me already:

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents

I would have answered them on Day 1 but I had very little time. You'd know this if you checked the village's bulletine board.

All I have to say is that I am greatly confused at the moment. I shall be back later after a more thorough analysis of the posts toDay.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Eomer is still looking wolvish to me, and because my time is rather limited toDay, I must just complete my case against him instead of taking a wider look at the village which is a pity. Well, anyway:

#193 - Eomer's first reactions to my case. He's appearing friendly...

"Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good! :p "

... and seems to be trying to disregard the points I made of him.

"I don't think I've been the least helpful person here, as has been reinforced by a couple of other villagers (whom I thank)."

If some other villagers think that Eomer is helpful, it means that I can't suspect him of being a werewolf? Then he asks me to check out the differences between suspecting and accusing.

"Anyway, a good post nonetheless; and I certainly won't ask people to stop asking questions of me. It's about time someone queried me. :) " ~Eomer

Well, looks more like a fake smile to me, because this is what happens when I go on and say that I might vote for him:

#200 - "To put it bluntly: I have suspected people, so to suspect me on the basis of not suspecting is totally contrived and false."

Eomer is taking attention away from the essence of my theory by clinging to his belief that I've confused the words 'suspect' and 'accuse'. Just because of that, he tries to say that my whole theory is totally contrived and false.

#205 - "I'm very confident I could insert the names of many other villagers in place of Eomer in her analysis and end up with a similar result."

Actually, I can't think of any and that's why I wanted to analyse him in the first place. Can you, Eomer, give me an example?

"I hope to quiz you on that tomorrow, Spawn, because I think there's a bit of selectivity in your choice of target today."

What's this, then? Something that begins with the word 'knee' and ends with the word 'jerk'? I thought I was welcome to question you... my mistake.

"Has anyone investigated you yet?"

Not much, really. I remember you saying earlier that maybe tar-a and I might be worth keeping an eye on, but you left it at that.


I'm also concerned of tar-ancalime. As Nilp said, her vote for Eomer might have been a wolf voting for another. She is excellent at wiggling herself out of tricky situations (like the flip-flop accusation) and that's why I'm still worried. I also disagree with Sauce on the significance of Holby's vote in this matter. If tar-a is a wolf, maybe she got scared that Holby was the Seer and had dreamed of her and the wolves wanted to take her out before she could dream more. Nightly kills aren't always frame-ups. However, I don't have time for analysing her toDay, so that's it about her.

I'll be back at least to vote (most likely for Eomer), but I try to come to talk with you before that if I only can.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm surprised. I really am. I will do my best to respond to the suspicion placed on me today. I will say that it's funny how only one person really suspected me in the first two days and then — overnight — many villagers are mentioning my name.

About Lhuna: I was wrong. I thought there was a good chance that she was a wolf, and I was wrong. The whole Oh Glirdan! You're probably innocent but what can I do? act appeared very wolvish to me. I was just as wrong as several villagers; it just so happens that my target's identity was revealed before theirs.


SPM follows Spawn's lead and makes a case against me (I wonder if this was arranged last night). He mentions that my suggestion that wolves will be slightly 'timid' and 'extremely friendly' was worrying, as it's problematic to assume wolf-categories. I agree with this, but neither Spawn nor SPM point out that I said Please debate with me in that post. Day One — let's get talking, please! It was hardly the cleverest post but I don't think it's worth all this bother.

Re. Addressing the question of unity between Tar and Spawn to SPM: SPM had previously said that Tar's random vote for me was odd, especially considering her suspicion of Spawn. I addressed it to SPM because I thought he'd be the villager most likely to care and respond (which he did, eventually).

About my supposed 'mild suspicions' of Formendacil and Mormegil: I was (and I know I'll be jeered for saying this) trying to be helpful. Yes, that's right. I was trying to be a help to the village. You see, while a lot of people are going crazy and throwing around rash accusations hither and thither around LMP, Boromir88, Garin, etc. I've been staying out of that mess and looking at the slightly less obvious villagers.

I do see how that can be seen as wolvish, think that if you will; but I will absolutely not apologise for not screaming accusations. I raise suspicion without 'pressing it home'? I'm sorry but I do not understand what's being asked of me here. My main target for the first two days was Lhuna. I was content with my target then, and happy enough to question others.

Today, though, I do have a new target. Oh yes, I wonder if you can guess who it is...

Farael was a safe target? Blimey. You suggest a new way of looking at things and you get people jumping at your throat. I guess that's Werewolf for you.


The most wolvish thing about me was indeed my shrill defence at Spawn's accusation. That's just the way I am, though. I can't help but come across as a bit of a *insert obscenity here* when playing this game.

One more point, and this is something I resent highly. This continued allegation that I am being unhelpful. What exactly can I say to that? Have I caught a wolf? No. So, in that way, I guess you could say that I haven't offered great help to this poor village. So, at the risk of sounding sarcastic, I urge all villagers to flock to the exceedingly helpful dancing spawn of ungoliant and trust to her judgment; considering how very helpful she has been to you all.


Again, I can't help but come across as annoying, pedantic and exasperated when I defend myself. But this wave of suspicion has me somewhat perplexed.

More soon.

[The Saucepan Man]

I haven't got a lot of time, so just a quick response to some points that have been raised for now.

I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.I do not expect "innocent" status, as you call it, and as far as I am aware I haven't been granted it. I expect my contributions to be examined and analysed, just as all villagers' contributions should be. But I think that it is rather unfair of you to make me accountable for how others react to me. Indeed, your whole case against me (if it can be called that) relies on what others have done - the Wolves have not killed me and I seem to be low in some people's suspicions.

What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.Yes, and statistically you are unlikely to be a Wolf. But statistics can be wrong. Please, judge me on my actions in this village, not my past lives.

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.I find that rather curious, and indeed this applies to much of this "flip-flopping" debate. There seems to be a general feeling in this village that changing one's mind as time goes on and more material comes to light is suspicious behaviour. I think it will be more instructive to look at why people have changed their mind, not just the simple fact of it. As it happens, I have not changed my mind about you and will still probably be voting for you.

SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust.Not arbitrary, but less decisive. All that Seer talk, and the encouragement of it, was one of the few things that we had to go on on Day 1, and it was a factor in my mind on Day 2 too. But, as time wears on, more factors are coming to light which makes it less important as an indicator of possible guilt. It remains one of my reasons for suspecting you, though.

SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?Well, it looks like I have to now. In a previous life, Nilp and I exchanged coded messages confirming our status as oridnary innocents. We did so on Day 1 in this village by anagrams, as indeed did Lhuna (royal invader girl = ordinary villager). That's one of the reasons that I believe Nilp to be innocent, because I trust him on this. Others have followed suit subsequently, but I am less trusting of their jumping on the bandwaggon in this regard (and indeed it was one of the reasons that I had a bad feeling about Lhuna). Does that help clarify?

Back later with my thoughts on everyone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

All you have, Spawn, is the 'feel' of my posts, and I can hardly argue against that. However:

Trying to disregard your points? No: I have answered them all (I think).

'If other villagers think Eomer is helpful it means I can't suspect him?' Um, what? What are you talking about? Classic example of taking anything I say and twisting it to make me look bad. Other villagers have said that I've made a couple of good points: that's fact. Why are you trying to make this look as if I'm shoving you away? I welcomed your questioning.

Fake smile? :) :p :rolleyes: Whatever. I'm one of the more excessive smiley users on the Barrowdowns.

Difference between suspicion and accusation, does this block the essence of your theory? The 'essence of your theory' Spawn, is that I haven't really suspected anyone. I answer this by saying that I have only accused one person (Lhuna) but have suspected others. This is the entire crux of the matter. Your theory rests on that point because it is the major point — the essence of the theory, if you will. That is why it is contrived and false. Yes it has a couple of attractive whistles and bells, but the theory itself is contrived.

About saying that there was 'selectivity in your choice of target', that was a clumsy way of saying that you could have made such accusations about a number of villagers. Which I hold to, and I will post evidence later today.

Spawn, how's this for knee-jerk? I think I'll be voting for you today. Hopefully we can at least dispell this theory that you and I are working together. Why will I vote for you? Think of the word 'hypocrisy', and also consider what effect your rather weak case against me has had today.

Oh my Lord, he's so shrill.

[littlemanpoet]

SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?

Well, it looks like I have to now. In a previous life, Nilp and I exchanged coded messages confirming our status as oridnary innocents. We did so on Day 1 in this village by anagrams, as indeed did Lhuna (royal invader girl = ordinary villager). That's one of the reasons that I believe Nilp to be innocent, because I trust him on this. Others have followed suit subsequently, but I am less trusting of their jumping on the bandwaggon in this regard (and indeed it was one of the reasons that I had a bad feeling about Lhuna). Does that help clarify?

Yes. I'm angered. This offends the spirit of the game. Such interior messaging should not be allowed.

This game is cooked. I want out. Please vote for me.

++littlemanpoet

[Boromir88]

I find that rather curious, and indeed this applies to much of this "flip-flopping" debate. There seems to be a general feeling in this village that changing one's mind as time goes on and more material comes to light is suspicious behaviour. I think it will be more instructive to look at why people have changed their mind, not just the simple fact of it. As it happens, I have not changed my mind about you and will still probably be voting for you.
I regret using the term :rolleyes: . I think everybody is seeing somebody "backing down" from their suspicions and terming it flip-flop. (Which I have to see who's doing it and think that such loose use of the word is rather wolfish).

Backing away from suspicions from someone isn't a flip-flop here, you're bound to go back and forth through Werewolf. It's the reversals of going a long with public opinion that I think is flip-flopping and most suspicious. Not because you are able to understand the reasoning of your "suspected/accused" person(s) and therefor don't see them as suspicious as you at first did. Being tunnel-visioned (:ahem: Garin :p ) and going after a soul person until he is lynched is something that I've never embraced....But I guess we all bring our own ways of doing things, which makes it of course interesting.

Garin, I will say, with your suspiciouns, you are way off track and it will only hurt the village if you are indeed an innocent villager because if I'm lynched (not saying I particularly feel I will) you will probably be lynched the day after.

[Boromir88]

Your understanding does you credit. But I have a feeling that you are having a Woolly Wolfskin pulled over your eyes.
Which I will take into full consideration when having to vote today. It's possible that lmp believes there will be enough sympathetic type (:cough: me :cough: ) that will see his mood today as he's likely innocent and so he plays to it. Hoping of course there are enough of me's and not more cynics like Sauce :D, to spare him from the noose.

Edit:

I've come to the conclusion that either Spawn or Eomer are probably another wolf in crime. The wolves yesterday would have to know that lmp would be facing death today. I doubt Eomer and Spawn are both wolves, playing this team of just accusing eachother back and forth, but there may be one wolf in there playing a long to get attention away from lmp. (IF lmp turns out to be a wolf I will certainly be taking this into deeper consideration).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, that's right: thy noble ancestor, forever beloved by the house of Eomer, would be ashamed of you. ;)


#41- Big long list of what's happened so far. Mildly suspects Celuien. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion*

#57- Midly suspects Lhuna. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion*

#85- Thinks there are good points against Aiwendil and tar-ancalime....but they don't look very suspicious. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion and then taking it back*

#94 (and #41)- She puts on the helpful villager cloak, expresses her disdain for all the Seer talk, and urges her fellows to find the wolves. *Spawn suspected Eomer for appearing helpful*

-She votes for Lhuna. (Funnily enough, like Eomer.)

#177- Mildly suspects Glirdan. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion.

#179- Laments the wasted Seer talk. Let's find wolves= be helpful! *Spawn suspected Eomer for appearing helpful*

-Begins suspicion of Eomer.



That's pretty much what her game was up until she began to suspect me. It is quite funny how similarly we were playing, Spawn. Now, and here's the important bit, there's nothing suspicious in what Spawn did there! Her very strong attack on me for doing something very similar to what she was doing is positively laced with hypocrisy.




Now, from the One yesterday, we have: Saucepan Man and littlemanpoet channeling her thoughts, and Mormegil. Actually, Mormegil I am less worried about because I merely seem to fit into his scheme. However, it is the other two I am concerned about.

I believe that littlemanpoet is a wolf, regardless. I have been following all discussion though I haven't commented on all of it. Actually, I might have to vote for him today anyway to save my own neck. Lucky Spawn. Without a vote for you today I'm not sure many other villagers will give my arguments against you time. But there are a few days left in this village yet.

There's a distinct possibility that Spawn is not a wolf; but her hypocrisy and SPM's repetition of her points has me worried.

[littlemanpoet]

I'm a werewolf. Lynch me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, I might not be back later.

LMP supposedly wants to die, and the village does not want him around. I had thought he was a likely wolf especially after that first post today but his last post with his vote for himself has me doubting somewhat. This would turn out to be the greatest bluff in Werewolf history if he's let off. He won't be though.

In any case, I fear receiving a few votes today and I certainly don't want to die.

++LITTLEMANPOET

Even if he is a wolf it appears that I'll be suspected for that vote. :rolleyes:

Spawn, you still have a chance to avoid my vote tomorrow but you are going to have to meet that charge of hypocrisy, which I think is very pertinent.

[Glirdan]

Grrrr!!! I'm such a confused villager!!! :mad: I really don't know what to think of that vote. It seems awfully Nilpish, yet I don't think Lmp would do something that drastic. It's just not his style. Mind you, it could very well be that he's a Wolf and by him telling us he's a Wolf, he thought that he could pull it off and make us not vote for him or he's a Wolf and very suicidal. I don't know what to do.... :(

[Kath]

Quite honestly I think lmp voted for himself because, whether he is a wolf or an innocent, he is thoroughly disgusted with the way SPM and Nilp, and to some extent Lhuna, behaved at the beginning of the game, and I'm not sure that I disagree.

Basically that is cheating.

[littlemanpoet]

Grrrr!!! I'm such a confused villager!!! ... I don't know what to do....
Just please vote for me and let me out of this cooked , rigged, cheaty game.

And thank you, Eomer.

[mormegil]

Yes. I'm angered. This offends the spirit of the game. Such interior messaging should not be allowed.

This game is cooked. I want out. Please vote for me.


It's not interior messaging, so to speak, it's out in the open for everybody to read. However I'm inclined to agree and disagree simultaneously. I'm not a fan of cryptic messages but at the same time we do like occasional hints from our seer or cobbler, if you are a wolf. You'll notice my anagram simply asks Nilp why should I trust him? That's the problem, anybody can say they are innocent, either in anagrams, cryptic clues or out right declaring themselves...will I believe them I don't know, you've declared yourself innocent before LMP did I believe it...no I didn't. I read Lhuna's anagram and didn't believe her, obviously.

As for me I wouldn't recommend doing it but...Meh.

[Boromir88]

Quite honestly I think lmp voted for himself because, whether he is a wolf or an innocent, he is thoroughly disgusted with the way SPM and Nilp, and to some extent Lhuna, behaved at the beginning of the game, and I'm not sure that I disagree.

Basically that is cheating.
I'm not a hard enough "looker" to find such clues and never noticed such a thing. I think that's cause for lmp's frustration (among other things) and I can certainly agree with him. But now is not the time to discuss such things as what is wrong/right. Let's keep focused and I think any feelings about the cryptic clues should be posted in the Town Hall Bulletin board (aka Main Tol-in-Gaurhoth thread).

[littlemanpoet]

It's not interior messaging, so to speak, it's out in the open for everybody to read. However I'm inclined to agree and disagree simultaneously. I'm not a fan of cryptic messages but at the same time we do like occasional hints from our seer or cobbler, if you are a wolf. You'll notice my anagram simply asks Nilp why should I trust him? That's the problem, anybody can say they are innocent, either in anagrams, cryptic clues or out right declaring themselves...will I believe them I don't know, you've declared yourself innocent before LMP did I believe it...no I didn't. I read Lhuna's anagram and didn't believe her, obviously.

As for me I wouldn't recommend doing it but...Meh.

I understand you. But it creates an unlevel playing field. Those who play in so many games, or at least those who read every game have an unfair advantage over the rest of us. I have other things I do besides play werewolf.

And it also happens to generate extracurricular discussions like this, which I could be doing after the game on the main thread. But I'm angry enough at this that I'm posting here anyway. And thanks for voting for me, Morm. If I had been privy to Nilp's, Lhuna's, and SPM's (and your) secret veteran code, I'd have played the game differently. There. That's the real issue. Not a level playing field.

Lynch me.

[Glirdan]

Well, now that I reread your previous post Lmp (I think it was post #268), I'm inclined to agree. However, this does not mean that you should quit, no matter how crooked this is. However, it was right out in the open for all of us to see so it's not really cheating. But now I'm not sure what to do...

However, if you want out, I'll help you.

++Littlemanpoet

[The Saucepan Man]

Yes. I'm angered. This offends the spirit of the game. Such interior messaging should not be allowed.

This game is cooked. I want out. Please vote for me. :rolleyes:

"Interior messaging", as you put it, is an intrinsic part of the game. It is standard, is it not, for Gifteds to drop subtle hints in the hope that innocents will pick up on them and that Wolves will not, or to assist the village in the event that they die?

If it was pre-arranged , then I would agree with you. But it was not.

And simply because someone has said that they are innocent in a coded message, it does not follow that they are. No more that if they were openly to state their innocence. I cannot be certain that Nilp is innocent because he declared as much in his anagram but, based on my knowledge of him, I tend to think that he is. And, much as I hate to "step out of the game" in my posts, we all rely to a degree on past games and our knowledge of those that we have played with in the past. In fact, as far as I can see, this is Formendacil's main strategy.

This all seems like a bit of an over-reaction to me.

But I cannot disregard littlemanpoet's vote for himself and entreaty that others vote for him. It could be genuine. But it is also quite possible that it was pre-arranged that, given how suspicious he looked coming into today, he would stand as a sacrifice, enabling his fellow Wolves to vote for him and thereby gain credit.

If lmp is a Wolf, we should look closely at those whom he has declared guilty and at those who have voted for him. Although that will almost certainly include me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Those who play in so many games, or at least those who read every game have an unfair advantage over the rest of us.Or an unfair disadvantage. Like being suspected simply for still being alive on Day 3 ... :rolleyes:

I am sorry, but I find it difficult to disregard my knowledge of previous games and the way people play. And I would be willing to bet that I am not alone in that.

But this line of discussion is perhaps better carried on when the game has finished ...

[Aiwendil]

Just please vote for me and let me out of this cooked , rigged, cheaty game.

Cheaty? Cheaty? This is the game where using the word "see" is often a hint that one is a seer, where mentioning arrows or knives has people crying "hunter", where every post is scrutinized for hints. Why is it cheating to throw an anagram out, at the top of one's post, bolded?

Anyway, I don't quite know what to make of LMP's suicide wish. If he's an ordinary villager, he's not helping us with his dramatics. I suppose he could be an innocent who, thoroughly frustrated, doesn't really care how much damage he does to our chances any more. Or he could be a wolf who, having decided that he's going to die toDAY no matter what, is endeavouring to get us to waste the DAY focusing on him.

[littlemanpoet]

Imagine what the werewolves must think about this 'out in the open' coding. This occurred to me just a moment ago. Of course, maybe they're such veterans that they saw it anyway and accounted for it. Of course, now that I think about it, if Nilp and SPM are werewolves, it's a hand device for codes to confuse things further.

I won't be posting anymore today, I'm going for a long ride to get out of this rather harrowing and unfun environment and out in the sun.

No, I'm not really a werewolf, but get me out of the picture anyway. Please! I've had enough.

EDIT: Sorry for causing such a stink, Aiwendil. It was natural reaction. I'm going for a ride. Have fun, everybody!

[tar-ancalime]

++littlemanpoet

The village doesn't need any members who don't want to live here. I don't mean this as a condemnation of any kind; I'm falling back on my useful/not useful paradigm from earlier in the day and deciding that someone who is no longer interested in hunting werewolves is most certainly not useful.

Here on my side of the village it's getting very late, so this will likely be my last post of the day.

[Shelob]

(The director got very frustrated, made an announcement (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=448995&postcount=2297), and declared that "the show must go on", before going to find lunch and leaving the players to sort things out for themselves.)

[Kath]

OK, so, lmp has gone and as a result I think we should try to put all this behind us and simply carry on.

Anyone who has voted for lmp may change their votes and I think they should do so in order that their vote might count for something.

No one should be regarded with extra or less suspicion due to these events (though of course minds will have been influenced).

[Aiwendil]

Shelob - can we take it, then, that LMP was telling the truth and that he was in fact an ordinary villager?

[tar-ancalime]

As I mentioned in my previous post, it's getting very, very late here on my side of the village.

I was going to vote lmp anyway; his real desire to get out of the game cemented it in my mind.

Like Kath yesterday, I don't want to make a quick, unexamined vote just for the sake of voting. I think it's too late in the game for that. Unfortunately I think I'll have to forego voting for the day.

I apologize--I have honestly done all I can today.

[Glirdan]

I like tar am getting rather annoyed with this. And I know, especially under the curcumstances not to mention the bit of suspicion that I already have, what I'm about to do will definetly hurt me. However, it is (kind of) necessary. I will forego my vote as well. I would go back and look over, but I'm quite tied up at the moment (baysitting) and I do not have a lot of time to reread everything. I will try to contribut more, however, this week, that's looking quite unlikely. I will, however, still participate in the discussions for the time being (when I can) and I may decide to change my mind and may vote.

--Lmp

[The Saucepan Man]

:rolleyes:

I find myself at a bit of a loss to know what to do now. My entire thinking today up to now was based on the assumption that littlemanpoet was a Wolf. I was settled on voting for him today and then looking at others whom his guilt implicated.

But, since lmp has disappeared without a whiff of Wolfishness, I am now left with a bunch of fellow villagers, some of whom look suspicious and some of whom don't, but none of which really stands out.

I have some more thinking to do, as I don't want to forego my vote, but little time in which to do it. Back shortly with such conclusions as I am able to draw.

[Kath]

Please excuse the extreme length of this post and be aware that there will be another of similar size following a little later if not two.

Day 1:
Lmp – usual occupation related blather, with a point about buying a knife that brought up suspicions against him later, though these were dropped. Also began the Seer discussion. Disagrees with Glirdan about killing the quiet ones, believing we should look at those who are suspicious and be wary of assuming the wolves will act in a certain way. Fair points. Thinks Aiwendil innocent because of the questions he asked and answers the first one fully, which wouldn’t matter if he is a wolf. His Seer advice seems sound, except for his emphasis on very – we need some clues! Says 5-6 may be spreading the votes too thin but then agrees absolutely with SPM about spreading the votes so long even though SPM just said ‘if that results in a wide field, then so much the better’. Agrees with tar-a about dropping the Seer discussion even though he is the one that started it, then continues with it! Thinks too much clarity might help the wolves. I’m not sure what he means by this but don’t think I’m likely to get an answer toDay. Replies to Anguirel. Thinks there is something a little ‘off’ about SPM. Suspects Boromir and votes for him.

Anguirel – blather. Disagrees with lmp that trying to think like a wolf would is wolvish but agrees about not thinking of the Seers. Claims wolves will act differently depending on their skills, a good point. Thinks Lhuna’s vote odd – but it was random. Supports Glirdan. Disagrees with Eomer over how a wolf would act, reiterating his point about actions being dependent on personal skills. Supports Celuien. Thinks tar-a innocent but Gil guilty. Says Boromir is his most likely target. Votes Boromir. Thinks the voting is now spread quite enough.

Glirdan – wants to get rid of all quiet people (eep!) though I believe that was later explained as a ploy to generate conversation. I don’t like the idea, preferring instead to lynch those I either believe to be wolves or, failing that, those who I feel will be of no help to the village. Some might say that is true of quiet villagers, but as some quiet ones have been known to be the Seer in the past I disagree. However, he does somewhat redeem this statement by claiming he believes one of the wolves would be quiet, so to lynch all the quiet ones would eventually result in catching a wolf. A bit of a drastic measure perhaps, but it may be effective. Votes Gil completely randomly due to time constraints. I think this is fair, it was an early vote and looks random.

Boromir – blather but mentions lmp specifically about not looking to fill his wallet. Seemingly ignoring the fact that Anguirel did the same thing. With the suspicions flying around now it seems possible this was early wolvish communication. The ‘usual . . . too usual’ post, though I find nothing there to be suspicious of, he is making a valid observation. More Seer discussion though it is more just worries. Agrees with spreading the votes and finds something unusual in Lhuna’s behaviour. Chirpiness and junk-filled posts his reasoning. Gripe about how because he works and had little time he is suspected. Suspects Aiwendil and Garin. Votes Gil even though it wasn’t actually necessary to save his life, and though he may not have realised this at the time is certainly is odd.

Tar-a – blather, though claims the wolves would not go near her, perhaps because she is one? Still blather though supporting lmp and Anguirel, but this may be in role. Has a little chat about the Seer and then suggests everyone be quiet about it. A little hypocritical perhaps but a good point. Disagrees with Lhuna somewhat, saying she doesn’t want a village cut in half by opinion. Thinks spawn’s summary was useless (uh oh, what will she think of this!). Can see both SPM and lmp’s point of view about Seer talk, but still believes it should be stopped. Seems to suspect spawn and says she may well vote for her. Says she now understands spawns reasons for summarising and votes Eomer as a random vote though also in case he is a wolf as she’d rather he go earlier than later.

Aiwendil – mentions both lmp and Boromir, maybe a triad? Wants serious discussion so creates a list of questions. Now, to my mind, answering these privately may be of help, but openly publicising them is probably not as the answers, especially those to the first two, would be of more help to the wolves than to the villagers, as they would tell them how NOT to act and how to find Gifted’s. I’m not sure if this is truly suspicious, it may have been an attempt to generate discussion and such things are often talked about, but it is odd. Clarifies his earlier statement about how many villagers to spread the votes over but backs off his earlier certainty, perhaps to stay in line with villagers thoughts. Again more talk about the Seer. Disagrees with SPM that Seer talk aids the wolves. Thinks lmp the most helpful of the day along with Boromir and SPM. Thinks Glirdan’s vote for Gil a ‘safe’ vote for a wolf. Says tar-a is too indecisive, testing out ideas and backing off when they are not well received, which is a fair point. Defends himself against Farael. Thinks Boromir has indeed said much but helped little, but doesn’t see him as suspicious and will likely vote tar-a. Continues to argue with Farael and wonders if he should vote tar-a since the votes are already so spread. Votes tar-a anyway.

SPM – blather but some good points such as getting everyone to talk and spreading the votes. Disagrees with Glirdan on simply lynching quiet people, which I agree with. Is the only one so far to point at both lmp and Anguirel as being opportunistic, which to me makes him look innocent, as I have been worried over those who only pointed out lmp. Answers Aiwendil’s questions but gives vague responses to the first two, again actually making me think him innocent due to my worries over these questions earlier. Likes all the talking – noo! Look at all this I have to analyse! *whimpers* Ahem. Disagrees with lmp but agrees with Ang that thinking like a wolf should not be seen as suspicious. But agrees with tar-a (and myself) that such thoughts should not be publicised for fear they will help the wolves more than the villagers. Thinks morm is behaving as usual. Thinks Glirdan innocent, believing that if he were a wolf he would not be so bold. Agrees that Seer talk should be stopped and the Gifted’s left alone – agreed, but he certainly seems to put a lot of faith in what tar-a says. Not happy with lmp and Aiwendil because they are encouraging Seer talk. We see his first suspicion of Lhuna over her vote for Glirdan. Thinks Nilp innocent. Wants to hear more from those who have been quiet or useless so far. Suspects (ish) Aiwendil, Lhuna, lmp and Celuien. Thinks Nilp, Ang and spawn innocent. Reserves judgment on others. Feels Gil and Glirdan innocent. Thinks there’s something odd about tar-a because she switched from spawn to Eomer so fast, but actually there was a post explaining that she’d dropped suspicion of spawn in between. Votes Lhuna due to her vote.

Morm – I think jokingly accuses 4 people (he did say it was random). Gil, Tar-a, Celuien and Holby, claiming two would be wolves. But really I doubt there was anything behind that. Adds Lhuna to his suspect list. Says Gil is the only one who reacted to his suspicions unusually but keeps quiet about the others. Votes Gil basically to get rid of him. Also suspects tar-a, Ang and Celuien.

Farael – blather. Mentions tar-a though I think that’s in role. Claims Aiwendil is a wolf. Some silly reasoning, as in thinks this due to a comment that said random accusations and nonsense will help the wolves is suspicious. To this I say – what? I agree with his comment about the questions being more helpful to the wolves though. Not happy about the Seer talk, but again I think the reasons unfounded. Thinks Aiwendil has been playing too safe. On that I disagree as Aiwendil puts forwards theories and those questions, which gained him a lot of attention. Votes Aiwendil for the reasons earlier stated.

Gil – berates Glirdan for his vote. Vote Glirdan and I feel it was entirely in revenge and had no real reasoning behind it.

Holby – replies to morm’s ‘accusations’ with some role related stuff. Then answers Aiwendil’s questions with tales of experience rather than conjecture, making me think her more innocent than guilty since she is relying on past data, which the wolves will already know. Explains her comment about reacting to jokes. Suspects Lhuna and tar-a, votes tar-a.

Celuien – blather. Replies to morm with more blather. Points out tar-a and Ang though I think jokingly. Keeps on with the Seer talk. Disagrees with Farael but find both him and Aiwendil innocent. Votes Gil for my reasons and now thinks tar-a innocent due to a missed quote.

Lhuna – blather but now we know also an anagram in the title proclaiming her role for anyone who could read it. Very much disagrees with Glirdan’s ‘lynch the quiet ones’ idea because she feels she would be in danger due to timezone issues. Agrees with SPM and tar-a. Thinks Aiwendil is innocent due to his question, though she doesn’t deign to answer them. Blather. Wonders if perhaps we should be wary of those who disagree with tar-a. Votes Glirdan. To explain this post of hers I believe she was saying that she had to vote and it would be random. She picked Glirdan but didn’t really think him to be a wolf.

Form – blather. Says he won’t join in as he finds Day 1’s pointless. Votes Boromir without reason due to sickness.

Nilp – starts with his little anagram. Bit of normal Nilp behaviour and then votes for Farael due to promise. Odd that he isn’t suicidal though.

Spawn – summarises the day. Since this is what I’m doing I won’t repeat it all. Mentions Glirdan’s vote and thinks it random, though perhaps influenced by past experiences. Seems to feel Aiwendil is suspicious for his questions. Thinks over the top reactions to a jokey accusation are suspicious. Has some suspicion of Celuien. Replies to tar-a explaining her (good) reasons for summarising the day. Points out that we have no Cobbler. Thinks Gil and Glirdan innocent and acting as usual. Finds Lhuna suspicious for her vote. Doesn’t find Farael, Aiwedil or tar-a suspicious, and I think I agree. Gets into Seer discussion. Votes Lhuna for previous reasons.

Eomer – blather. Pretty much answers Aiwendil’s first question with thoughts of how a wolf would act. Claims wolves will be timid, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. Facetious behaviour toward Lhuna. Repeats his assumption on the way wolves will act. Rebukes tar-a jokingly for voting for him. Thinks Glirdan innocent but has some suspicions toward Lhuna and Gil. Bit of a flip flop on Lhuna there. Thinks morm has been behaving a bit oddly. Wonders if spawn and tar-a are working together. Votes Lhuna due to her vote.

Garin – thinks those who are repeatedly quiet and useless should be lynched rather than just quiet ones in general. Ok, that’s about fair. Some blather. Wants the False Seer killed off right away, apparently having missed that whoever it is won’t know whether they are the real or false Seer. I think suspects Boromir. Leaning towards Boromir, Lhuna and Gil. Votes Boromir.



And an innocent Gil dies. Now I know this is just Day 1 but I have taken into account things we know now, though for some of this the whole thing with the anagrams and lmp has not been taken into account.

Make of this what you will. I should have time to do Day 2 and hopefully 3. You’ll have my conclusions later.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:
I find myself at a bit of a loss to know what to do now.

That makes two of us. While I wasn't certain that LMP was a wolf, he was, as I said, my chief suspect for toDAY.

I'm hoping that there's some information to be gleaned from the fact of his innocence. But for the moment, I'm quite at a loss.

Must go think.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So am I right in thinking that I can go

--LITTLEMANPOET ?

We need an agreement among players. I think it's for the best that we discount LMP from today's votes.

[mormegil]

--LMP

at least I will do that and I must say that I admire the man for sticking to his convictions.

Now who looks most suspicious? I'm not sure. Garin? Eomer? Celuien keeps coming to mind to and has been abscent, if I recall, for all of Today.

This is a really odd feeling right now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I have been keeping up with discussion, honestly. It's just that I haven't been commenting on too much of it. The more I think about it the more I realise that it looks wolvish.

Oh dear...

I'll try to give a more comprehensive post. At least that will give you all something to go on if I die today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have tried to draw my thoughts together as best I can, given that the rather dramatic events of today have left me at bit of a loss. Blame that for my lack of firm conclusions below. If you'll pardon the expression, I was rather barking up the wrong tree for most of the day. :rolleyes:

Farael: Farael shifted slightly from his single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil and suggested that we should lynch littlemanpoet because that might give us information about Aiwendil. I agreed that littlemanpoet should be lynched because I thought that he was a Wolf. And, if he had been a Wolf, I would have been looking at Farael as one of his conspirators. I'm not sure what Farael's suggestion to vote for lmp tells us about him, or his Aiwendil theory, now. I need to think about that some more.

Mormegil: I considered mormegil's votes earlier today. Essentially, he has been centrally involved in the lynching of two known innocents. That's suspicious, but by no means conclusive. He continues to be rather unusually quiet. I did have the feeling that, if littlemanpoet was a Wolf, mormegil was probably innocent. I will now have to go back and see if the opposite is true, as I thought it might be. Possibly one to watch for the future.

Aiwendil: As far as I can see, his only real misdemeanour is his Day 1 Seer talk. And that, as I have said, is much less of an indicator of possible guilt than it was in the past two days, since so much more has happened since then. I am not setting too much store in the fact that he suspects me, as I expected to be under suspicion for much the same reason that he outlined today. I think that he is just over-analysing and drawing the wrong conclusion and have no other real reason to suspect him at this stage.

Glirdan: I have been giving him the benefit of the doubt for now, based on his early votes. But I would like to start hearing a lot more from him. Still coming across as innocent to me, though.

Formendacil: Very quiet, but he explained why. I'm going to have to reserve judgment on him for now. Still, illness or no illness (and my sympathies, by the way), I can't keep reserving judgment on him for ever ...

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Has, like Farael, become rather single-minded in her pursuit of Eomer and is therefore becoming difficult to get a handle on. While I think that she has made some good points, I can also see the sense in what Eomer said in response. Until she settled on her case against Eomer, she too was merely raising suspicions without following them through.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Has not contributed today, but explained why on the village noticeboard. Whatever you may think of think of how I got there, I still think him likely to be innocent. If he's not, he will be punished ... ;)

Eomer of the Rohirrim: I set out my thoughts on Eomer earlier. I stand by them, but he makes a fair point about spawn. And there is little else against either of them.

Kath: Her quietness was troubling me. Has now contributed with a major summary of Day 1's events (and more to follow). While that's helpful in it's way, it doesn't really tell us much about her. On the assumption that there is a quiet Wolf (not necessarily a safe assumption, admittedly), she was looking to be the obvious candidate and I think that still holds, as her summary gives us very little information on the way that she is thinking. She has voted for a known innocent, and did not vote yesterday. While I acknowledge her explanation for that, I just don't like "no-votes" since they reduce the amount of information available to work on.

Garin: Garin's early vote for Boro is a concern. My reason for thinking him likely to be innocent was that he was looking very suspicious, which is how Garin always looks. I will have to go back and look at what he has said in more detail, but I am not inclined to vote for him today.

Celuien: She was looking very suspicious to me yesterday and has said nothing today. That might be regarded as suspicious, but I can't help thinking that a Wolf would have been more involved.

Tar-Ancalime: I had been regarding her as a likely innocent because Holby voted for her and then died. Spawn makes the point that this may have alerted a Wolfish tar and her fellow fiends to Holby being the Seer. Or maybe that was to stop us looking more closely at spawn, given that Eomer had noted a possible connection between them. I still think that it would have been too risky for a Wolfish tar to kill Holby but, then again, this has actually served to take the heat off her somewhat. She has contributed today without saying too much, if you get my meaning, but that's probably understandable in the circumstances. I am not sure about tar, but I am less inclined now to regard her as a probable innocent.

Boromir88: My thoughts about Boro, as they developed today, hinged on lmp being a Wolf. They both went strongly against each other at the beginning and then backed off each other considerably. I am not sure how lmp's innocence affects this, but I am still inclined to trust Boro. His understanding of lmp's predicament speaks considerably in his favour.

To summarise, as I did yesterday:

Main suspects: None really now.

Making me nervous: Farael, mormegil, spawn, Eomer, Kath, tar-ancalime

Just don’t know: Formendacil, Garin, Celuin

Probably innocent: Aiwendil, Glirdan, Nilp, Boro

I will have to vote soon. At the moment, though, I am in a bit of a quandary. :(

[Celuien]

Sorry I haven't been around until now. I just got off work from yesterday (as mentioned on the notice board). Anyway, I have a lot to catch up on. I'll be back with a fairly lengthy post before long.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have to cast my vote now.

Out of those that I am feeling nervous about, no one really stands out as a likely Wolf. So I am afraid that this is a bit of a shot in the dark. Still, I have got it pretty much all wrong so far, so I think that a change in direction may be in order.

++KATH

Her vote for Gil-Galad looks suspicious to me, as does her no-vote yesterday. Also, she has given little away as to her thoughts and opinions, which I always find rather suspicious. If we don't all talk and let each other know how we are thinking, how are we to spot the Wolves as the situation develops. Expressing no strong opinions allows a Wolf to hide, and Kath has been doing that more than anyone else (with the exception of Formendacil, who I don't in all conscience feel that I can vote for today).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Saucepan Man: Has been comprehensive as usual; he has avoided suspicion because he appears to have the trust of the village. This could be dangerous, but I don't have many reasons to suspect him. His jumping on Spawn's case makes me wonder (because I don't think Spawn's case is nearly as good as it has been made out to be). Seems probably innocent to me.

Farael: Very bold, concentrating on one villager (Aiwendil). There's no trail if he were to die. Excellent wolf strategy. I'm not saying he's a wolf but if he is he's done a very clever thing indeed. I'm very suspicious that so many people supposed him innocent so soon after his strong attack on Aiwendil (though that included the innocent Lhunardawen).

Mormegil: He suspects me for unclear reasons. His answers to my suspicions of him (about that weird post early on Day One) did not satisfy me and I have since been distracted by Spawn to further question him. Another thing that worries me about Morm is that he mentions how suspicious the Lhuna bandwagon is. This is weird as he made it the bandwagon. Recall that Glirdan started it on Day Two, I cast the second vote (I had already voted for Lhuna on Day One), innocent Anguirel was third, and Morm was fourth. But then, would a wolf make such an apparently foolish statement?

Aiwendil: Is getting a free ride from me at the moment, because I just can't see too much merit in Farael's theory. It seems cobbled together out of very little. Aiwendil's somewhat tired response strikes me as innocent, though he could just be a very lucky wolf to be picked on in such a way. Quite loud.

Glirdan: Reasons in voting for Gil were obviously dubious. Lhuna out of spite? Seems to have some sort of understanding with Saucepan Man, anyone else notice this? Seems a bit too hither-and-thither to be a wolf. Am inclined to trust him.


More soon...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Formendacil: Very quiet (for obvious reasons). Reasons for voting for Boromir88 were odd. Comes across as trying to ally himself with innocent Anguirel. Not too much to go on.

Dancing Spawn: Her case against me has a fair bit of support (not at all sure why). A rash of sudden support today makes me wonder. I maintain my charge of hypocrisy in voting for me for doing things that she herself was doing. However, see below.....

.....Nilp: Nothing for me to go on. I think his voting record (Farael Day One and Anguirel Day Two) is rather strange, but not really enough to suspect him. Saw something that makes me wonder (it applies to Spawn as well). I almost wish it hadn't been said because now I'm thinking..........I'll make a separate post.

Kath: Too quiet. Best fits the description of 'too friendly'. She thanks people by name for showing support in her. She didn't vote. Almost no trail. Am inclined to agree with the villagers who say she should have voted.

Garin: All sorts of theories. Very charismatic, very hard to read. I don't think he's as suspicious as people make out. Easy target with that early vote for Boromir88, though.

Celuien: Surprises me that she's under so much suspicion. I generally find myself agreeing with her. Fits into my Farael innocence train theory but that could be far-fetched.

Tar-Ancalime: Has brilliantly avoided suspicion after she looked like an early lynchee. Random vote for me was strange. I could be getting muddled here but it seems to me like she backs away from questioning. I'll correct myself if this is unfair (as it may well be).

Boromir88: Doesn't concern me in the slightest. I'm more suspicious of the lynch Boro mob.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, so Spawn and Nilp are allied, right? If I don't vote for Spawn today then this is my reason. Make of it what you will.

Oh bother... :rolleyes:

[Celuien]

Thoughts on villagers:

LMP – I would have defended lmp, but that’s now a moot point.

Boro – backs off attack on lmp early in the DAY, then defends him briefly in 241. Suspects Aiwendil, Spawn, Eomer and Kath. Gives thought that Sauce is still alive because he hasn’t identified a wolf. Tries to keep village focused on finding wolves instead of debating cryptic clues. Says he’ll be an observer today. For trying to keep focus and for defense of lmp, I’m willing to exonerate him.

SpM – gives voting record, as usual. Suspects lmp in 227, 231, 240, 243. Says that if the wolves attacked Ang because they thought he was gifted, it may point toward Glirdy’s or my innocence (but continues to suspect me). Expresses concern over Garin’s early vote. Denies being a wolf. Also suspects Eomer for his Lhuna vote, though less than lmp. Case for Eomer built more in 250. Most of the rest from this point on the anagrams and lmp controversies. Now votes for Kath due to her non vote yesterday, keeping her thoughts under wraps, and voting for Gil. Overall, I think he’s been very insightful, and I don’t think he’s a wolf.

Aiwendil – I continue to think that he’s innocent for his continuing detailed and interesting analysis. He hasn’t really done anything that makes me think he might be a wolf.

Farael – still don’t think I can suspect him. I continue to believe that the Aiwendil/Farael duel was two squabbling innocents.

Mormegil - someone I think is most likely innocent. Has posted thoughtful analysis throughout. Suspects Eomer, Garin, and LMP, mostly lmp. Thinks about voting for your local froggie in 102, or alternatively Garin/Eomer.

Glirdan – feels innocent to me. Expresses confusion over lmp’s suicidal vote, then votes for him, giving the reason that he wanted to help lmp get out of the game if that’s what he wanted. Says he may forego his vote today. That seems odd, but I’ll excuse it on the basis that this has been a very confusing day. We’ll see.

Tar-Ancalime – suspects lmp early. Defends Aiwendil and somewhat suspects Farael. Suspects Garin. Wants to watch Eomer and Spawn as well. Suggests getting rid of people who muddy things. Comments on Nilp and SpM hints. Doesn’t want to make a quick, unexamined vote. Doesn’t strike me as particularly wolvish.

Nilpaurion Felagund – not here yet toDAY. I didn’t suspect him before. Am willing to go with SpM’s analysis (I didn’t spot the anagrams before myself) for now and continue to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Formendacil – says he’s not feeling well and too muddled as a result to figure out what is going on. That’s about it. I don’t get a real idea of innocence or guilt.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant – suspects Eomer (http://forums.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=448930&postcount=264). Gives a pretty detailed, reasonable argument. Doesn’t look that suspicious to me.

Eomer of the Rohirrim – resents spawn’s suspicions and gives a sarcastic reply. Presents a case against spawn (http://forums.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=448943&postcount=271) Believes lmp is a wolf, then votes for him after lmp’s request. Doesn’t suspect SpM, but accuses him of ‘channeling’ his suspect spawn’s thoughts. I can see why he looks suspicious, but there’s not really enough for me to go on to vote for him. Will watch.

Kath – hasn’t been around too much. Calls Garin on his request for Formendacil to vote (discussed below) – something that I think points to her innocence. Though I can’t totally go one way or the other on her. At any rate, I’m not willing to attack someone just for not being around frequently for obvious reasons. :rolleyes:

Garin – continues to make me very, very uneasy today due to 1) early vote for Boro 2) a lot of defensiveness that didn’t really seem warranted given the large anti-lmp sentiment that held sway at the moment 3) asking Formendacil to hurry and vote – just seems like poor advice unless you’re trying to generate randomness and confusion and 4) I just generally have an odd feeling about him. I don’t know.

Actually, I do know. I’m going to stick with my vote from yesterday and say

++GARIN

He makes me far too uneasy, far more than anyone else so far.

[Formendacil]

Good grief!

Two hours in Emergency, an IV unit, a 12 hour sleep, and breakfast later... and the village has been up to this?

Okay, so people find me quiet... Whatever. As SPM has noted, I base my strategy on knowledge of past games, and the last several have all borne that accusation against me. I don't care. You try being sick (and it turns out it's a flu, not strep...) and see how well YOU play when you're dehydrated.

Anyway, a little self-righteous ranting over, I'm staring a deadline two hours away and no one in the village seems suspicious to me. SPM, Boromir, and Eomer seem to be playing on par. Morm is quieter than usual, but not raising any warnings. Everyone seems to be playing on par- and Innocent! Even yesterday's suspicions of Aiwendil have gone down, although that could just be him quieting down about me...

Well, I'll be back in a while to try and think my way through all this...

[mormegil]

++Eomer

He now seems the most wolfish to me though the way I have voted in the past probably means he's a mere innocent. :rolleyes: I should just learn to vote for those whom I find least suspicious.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Ok, so Spawn and Nilp are allied, right? If I don't vote for Spawn today then this is my reason.No. And you may vote for me if you think that I'm a wolf. However, you may not vote for me if you think that I'm an innocent hypocrite. :p

#41- Big long list of what's happened so far. Mildly suspects Celuien. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion*

#57- Midly suspects Lhuna. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion*

#85- Thinks there are good points against Aiwendil and tar-ancalime....but they don't look very suspicious. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion and then taking it back*Note the word 'very' suspicious. There's a difference between suspicious and very suspicious. The latter usually gets my vote, you see.

#94 (and #41)- She puts on the helpful villager cloak, expresses her disdain for all the Seer talk, and urges her fellows to find the wolves. *Spawn suspected Eomer for appearing helpful*

-She votes for Lhuna. (Funnily enough, like Eomer.)

#177- Mildly suspects Glirdan. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion.No, I didn't suspect Glirdan. I said: "I'm not holding anything against you (yet), but it would be nice if you stood behind your actions."
I actually continued collecting suspicious things about Aiwendil: "...that question doesn't speak for Aiwendil's favour."

#179- Laments the wasted Seer talk. Let's find wolves= be helpful! *Spawn suspected Eomer for appearing helpful*Can you give me a quote? I can't see me lamenting anything in that post.

-Begins suspicion of Eomer.
I'm shocked. You forgot my post #165 - Mildly suspects tar-a and Lhuna. ;) (Although, as I said in my post #264, I'm still worried of tar-a because I think you two might be wolves.)

That's pretty much what her game was up until she began to suspect me. It is quite funny how similarly we were playing, Spawn. Now, and here's the important bit, there's nothing suspicious in what Spawn did there! Her very strong attack on me for doing something very similar to what she was doing is positively laced with hypocrisy.
I'm afraid that you've misunderstood something in my theory, my good priest.
1) I said that I don't hold your vote for Lhuna on Day 1 against you, so you can forget calling me a hypocrite because of that.
2) Mild suspicion or helpfulness in itself isn't wolvish, it's the big picture that matters; what words people choose to use, how much they talk and, are they acting defensive etc.

What can I say, I think that you're a wolf. As to my "very strong attack", if I accuse someone for furry business, I think it's only fair to give enough reasons why. My conclusion was: "Right now Eomer's looking somewhat questionable to me." Well, after this little debate with you, I stick to my opinion.


ToDay I had to, seemingly quite persistently, too, concentrate on replying Eomer's answers to me because of my lack of time. If you don't lynch me toDay and if the wolves won't kill me next Night, you can expect better examination of the whole situation in this village tomorrow.

My time's up.

++Eomer

[Kath]

What? SPM? You ask me to talk more so I do, and while I don't wish to get overly defensive I put my own opinions in all through that summary.

In answer to SPM and Eomer's worries over my no vote though I would like to ask you a question. Would you rather that I came in at the end of Day 2 and made a snap decision on a vote (something which SMP at least has already said is a bad thing) or that I analysed what I had seen of Lhuna, deemed her innocent and decided not to vote as any that I made would have been random and of no use to anyone the next Day?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Kath, don't tell me you didn't have any suspicions at the end of Day Two.

Spawn, another response:

First of all, that whole 'lament' quote was wrong and I have no idea where I got it from. Apologies for that.

Anyway, if you didn't exactly suspect Glirdan you did murmur against him. I did not call you a hypocrite for anything regarding Lhuna because I know fine well you didn't use my Lhuna vote against me. So I'm not calling you a hypocrite because of that; I'm calling you a hypocrite because of the other stuff. And I do know that the big picture matters: that's why we were embroiled in discussion over the 'essence' of your theory—which is totally wrong.

I just don't see how your case against me can have support. I have good answers for every single thing you have said against me.



(Incidentally, I know I said I might not be on later today, but the computer was freed up.)

[Kath]

Kath, don't tell me you didn't have any suspicions at the end of Day Two.
Eomer, I had no suspicions at the end of Day 2. I hadn't been there all day, had barely skimmed through the posts made and only had time to really look at Lhuna.

[Garin]

Helping people move is awesome. I no longer have a spinal chord, no one told me it was a two story apartment.

I don't understand the uprise against the subliminal messages that people send out because they can easily used for deceit. I thought every one going into Werewolf knew of the intricacies of the game. I'm not into this puzzle crap but I managed to begin many posts with an "I", guess what that stands for.

littlemanpoet it is but a vague communication and can actually serve as a weapon against wolves.

The game of Werewolf is the most conniving and unsettling game I know of and that is why I love it so.....

[Shelob]

Working from the assumption that things may or may not be perfectly clear I'm going to clarify a few points for everyone.

>Point 1: Littlemanpoet will die at the end of this DAY, regardless of how the voting stands.

>Point 2: Because of Point 1 votes for LMP have basically been nullified, therefore anyone who has already voted for LMP is allowed to retract or completely ignore their vote and vote again.

>Point 3: Ignoring the votes for LMP whoever has the most votes at the end of the DAY will also by lynched. (So it'll work as if LMP was already dead in the game)

>Point 4: Just to make things simpler for everyone the voting (ignoring lmp votes) now stands at:

1 vote for Boromir (made by Garin)
1 vote for Kath (made by SPM)
1 vote for Garin (made by Celuien)
2 votes for Eomer (made by Mormegil and Dancing Spawn)

I hope it helps.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Kath, you were here on Day One. Didn't anyone at all make you think 'Hmm....'

(I know I'm setting myself up for this one. :D )

[Formendacil]

An hour later, and my brain has no more found a suitable person to vote for than my waterbottle has ceased to pour water down my throat... It looks like I may have to go with yesterday's choice, and vote Aiwendil.

Note to Garin: If I may give a little friendly advice, 'tis pasttimes to be talking about LMP and the whole "Secret Messages" topic. It's been resolved. Talking about it is just useless, distracting noise.

Of course, if you're a wolf, that's probably WHY you're bringing it up again.

[Kath]

Well I wasn't here a great deal of Day 1 either Eomer, which is why I went with Gil as a vote. That's why I did that great long analysis of Day 1, with the knowledge we have now in mind to try and gain some information from it.

[Formendacil]

Sorry all... I haven't got the stamina for this computer chair any longer, nor do my eyes want to watch this screen...

++ Aiwendil

Not as guilty-seeming as yesterday, but I thought I had good reasons then, and since I have no other choices...

[Aiwendil]

A few thoughts on those who look like lynch candidates for toDAY:

Boromir - Never understood the strong suspicion of him. If he's a wolf, I'll be kicking myself pretty hard, but for the moment I'm inclined to think him innocent.

Kath - I don't blame her for her failure to vote yesterDAY. I can understand not wanting to cast a more or less random vote, and I don't think that Eomer is right that she should simply have voted for anyone who worried her slightly. Still, I think she's been doing a good job (up until toDAY, perhaps) of "flying under the radar". Somewhat suspicious.

Garin - Earlier, I said that my two main suspects toDAY were Garin and LMP. Well, obviously I was wrong about one of them, which does shake my confidence in the rest of my analyses. But Garin continues to look wolvish to me. In particular, it occurs to me that his stubborn attacks on Boromir would be a nice way for a wolf to avoid the "flip flop" accusation. He's a top suspect and will likely get my vote toDAY.

Eomer - I can see how he could be a wolf. Reading through his posts up to yesterDAY, he indeed looks fairly suspicious to me. But, to be honest, his defense toDAY comes across, to me at least, as that of an innocent. Yes, he's gotten a bit "shrill" (to use his own word). Let me remind you that LMP got shrill as well. It seems to me that a wolf would make more of a conscious effort not to come across as shrill and over-defensive. A wolf would look fairer and feel fouler, so to speak.

Formendacil - No votes for him yet, but I consider him here because he was one of my top suspects yesterDAY. I'm sorry to hear that he's feeling ill. More relevantly, I certainly don't think he'd make up a story about having the flu. So in my mind his relative silence is excused. There are still a few points that concern me here, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

All right - I may not make it back before the deadline, so I must vote. Garin looks the most suspicious to me right now (and indeed, he's the only person who has, from DAY 1, seemed consistently suspicious to me). I said we needed to lynch a wolf toDAY, and I think Garin's our best bet.

++Garin

[Garin]

Form says Note to Garin: If I may give a little friendly advice, 'tis pasttimes to be talking about LMP and the whole "Secret Messages" topic. It's been resolved. Talking about it is just useless, distracting noise.

I had just returned home from helping someone move and the despondent tone of LmP concerned me a great deal. It occurs to me that many of you are young and dejected. I just wanted to extend a helping hand to someone who seemed awfully dejected. My compassion is what condemns me when i am a wolf.

Edit: I must add that I am not a wolf today and that anyone who votes for me is a moron.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

"I see" laughed Eomer. "I look foul and feel fair. Is that it?" :D

My problem here, Aiwendil, is that, once upon a time, an ancestor of mine gave one of the shrillest defences ever heard of; and he turned out to be guilty.

Another problem I have is that my family tree is positively filled to the brim with guilty men. So I always look suspicious. :rolleyes:

It's ridiculously exciting to keep watching until the deadline, knowing that you could be lynched and hoping to avoid it. I'm not going anywhere tonight.

[Garin]

I'm sorry if I am appearing agitated but for some reason I was trying to watch "Napoleon Dynamite" again to see why anyone liked it and it just makes me furious at how bad and unfunny it is.... there.... I said it. I will now take a nice walk, far from that crappy movie.

It is racist also.

[mormegil]

Let me weight in on the Formendacil's illness. While I feel bad if he really is feeling ill, merely posting this does not make it so. Any sort of story or falsehood can and is propogated here. It has been well established to post such reasons on the town board, and that being sacred ground, lies cannot be told there. Now I don't think we ought to suspect him for this, however it is something to remember that he is not innocent because he is sick.

Eomer - I can see how he could be a wolf. Reading through his posts up to yesterDAY, he indeed looks fairly suspicious to me. But, to be honest, his defense toDAY comes across, to me at least, as that of an innocent. Yes, he's gotten a bit "shrill" (to use his own word). Let me remind you that LMP got shrill as well. It seems to me that a wolf would make more of a conscious effort not to come across as shrill and over-defensive. A wolf would look fairer and feel fouler, so to speak.

Ah, yes but this is no ordinary villager, he would kill his friends and family in order for his own survival. He's more cunning than most I've encountered and never to be taken lightly no matter how the post is written.

[Boromir88]

After some thought I've concluded my vote will be either for Aiwendil or tar-ancalime.

I have had a funny feeling about Aiwendil. Yes, Aiwendil's been offering advice and has seemed pretty smart. But Farael has put together a strong case, and I'm worried that he's done a clever job of poking attention towards lmp, while never committing to a full accusal of him.

For someone who was pretty heavily suspected the last two days, we've all just seemed to have forgotten about our ex-leppress and everyone got caught up with lmp, as tar-ancalime has slipped in the background...that's never a good thing.

[Kath]

Well no one really seemed to appreciate this but I find it helpful and if I don’t post it I’ll just be accused of being quiet and if I do it’ll be long posts with little to say. Ah well.

Day 2:

Anguirel – saw that Holby had supported morm, so perhaps the latter is innocent? However as said there is little evidence so that theory would have to be tested.

Celuien – claims she would never have picked Holby as Gifted. Ok but why make such a mention of it? Can’t see any clues in Holby’s posts and doesn’t think she dreamt of morm (which would make him innocent) because the evidence is too weak. Finds Lhuna’s comments odd and thinks lmp’s behaviour may have been a little furry.

Morm – suspects tar-a and lmp, though we can ignore the latter now. Builds up an argument against lmp that is now useless. I wonder though whether this fierce campaign could have been a wolvish attempt to avoid suspicion. That sounds odd but Eomer thought the wolves would be timid and someone else thought they would play to their strengths, so he would be going against Eomer which if morm was a wolf would put some suspicion on Eomer, and also thanks to Boromir’s ‘too usual’ post we just explain it as ‘morm being morm’ and he escapes suspicion. And yes I know not much of that made sense, it’s hard to explain. Cross about lmp’s reaction to his suspicion.

Glirdan – repeats that his vote for Gil was random and asks to be excluded from suspicion. Wants to look at those who jumped on his ‘lynch the quiet ones’ campaign as it was only to generate conversation not actually meant. Specifically means Lhuna here. There is a funny ‘we’ when talking of how the wolves would act which at first glance seems to suggest he is one of them, but I don’t think he’d be that stupid! Belatedly answers Aiwendil’s questions but not in any way that would really help the wolves. Goes on at Lhuna about the quietness thing, claiming he has the same timezone worries though, unless he secretly lives in the Philippines, I don’t believe he does. Votes Lhuna based on these worries.

Aiwendil – makes a point of saying he didn’t think Holby the Seer. Doesn’t understand the votes for Gil or Boromir. Thinks Form and Garin look the most suspicious. Also thinks tar-a is still suspicious for her attacking and then backing off pattern, and for her vote for Eomer as he feels it was ‘safe’. Seems to suspect Glirdan but thinks the other are more suspicious. Finds the anti-Boromir campaign suspicious because while villagers and wolves sound the same they don’t vote the same, and he thinks these Boromir votes show that. Thinks Form suspicious for his vote. Thinks Garin’s vote looks wolvish with him either trying to save a wolf or just get Gil killed. Thinks lmp is behaving oddly. Doesn’t think Farael suspicious, but wonders if he is the False Seer after wondering the same thing of lmp. Seems a thinly veiled attempt to root out the remaining Seer to me. Suspects Form and Garin. Utterly agreed on the latter right now.

Boromir – thinks the wolves may be trying to set up Lhuna and tar-a. Thinks morm, SPM and spawn innocent (I am inclined to agree with the last two). Lhuna, Garin and lmp considered suspicious along with Celuien. Suspects these people also because they fanned the Seer discussion, which he beleives was a wolvish ploy. Says he honestly believed he had to vote Gil to save himself but takes back suspicion of lmp since he had now realised this. Accuses lmp.

Form – argues that his vote for Boromir was reasoned, though not really due to suspicions. But then he doesn’t believe in Day 1’s so that makes sense even if it is a little odd. Thinks Garin more likely to be an innocent than a wolf though won’t discount the possibility that he could be one. A bit indecisive.

Garin – explains his vote. Thinks Boromir suspicious due to his flurry of late posting. Defends his vote for Boromir. Woah! Earlier claimed that the False Seer was but a useless villager and should come forward, now condemns lmp for doing the exact same thing! That’s not flipflopping, that’s hypocrisy!

Lmp – explains the knife comment, unfortunately along with some nasty names. Argues against morm, and we now know he is innocent so perhaps morm’s big thing against him is a little suspicious, or actually a lot suspicious. Thinks SPM, Farael, Aiwendil, spawn and Ang innocent. Finds morm, Form, Kath, Garin Celuien and Boromir suspicious. Top three suspects are morm, Form and Boro, and I am increasingly agreed on the first of that triad. Suddenly though Garin becomes most suspicious to him. Explains his suspicions of Boromir.

SPM – thinks Holby’s death was an attempt to frame tar-a, and so thinks the latter innocent. Thinks the votes for Boromir odd. Suspects the Gil voters. Could go either way on Boro’s vote for Gil. Now, I am starting to find that more and more suspicious since he did not need to vote for Gil to save his own life. It was an easy excuse for a ‘safe’ vote. Thinks Glirdan and tar-a innocent and Lhuna suspicious. Therefore suspicious of morm, Kath, Celuien, lmp and Lhuna. Supports lmp against mormegil over the knife comment. Thinks Aiwedil, lmp and Celuien (learn to spell it SPM!) suspicious over the Seer talking.

Nilp – thinks those on the Boromir bandwagon suspicious since it started so suddenly and so late. Also not keen on those who voted for Gil since he saw no reasoning behind it. Thinks those that voted Lhuna are innocent if misguided. Thinks tar-a and Eomer may be wolves based on the ‘safe’ vote. Thinks Farael innocent. Thinks those who voted Gil and tar-a are innocent. So suspicious of lmp, Ang, tar-a, Form and Garin. The first two we know to be innocent, what about the last 3?

Tar-a – Defends Boromir but makes a points of not being allied with him. Unsure over Garin because of his questioning of Boromir. Doesn’t get the Boromir bandwagon.


That's as far as I have time to go but actually I'm quite happy with where I've stopped having just noticed that little comment of Garin's. I have absolutely no regret with voting

++GARIN

You've been speaking of hypocrisy Eomer, here is a prime example!

[Garin]

Earlier claimed that the False Seer was but a useless villager and should come forward, now condemns lmp for doing the exact same thing! That’s not flipflopping, that’s hypocrisy!

I said the false seer should lay low and never once told them to come forth you filthy revisionist! Post the quotes liar.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thank you Morm. By the way, what information did you glean from your random accusations on Day One. You never did tell anyone; you just let it pass.

Kath, I don't quite follow. Do you mean Garin was hypocritical? He has bundles of votes. Why do I think no-one is ever going to vote for Dancing Spawn...

[Boromir88]

I think today will tell us a lot, as it's coming down to voting I must cast my vote for

++Aiwendil

It's been a crazy action packed day, and depending upon the turnout (wolf or not) we shall certainly be able to find a lot from these votes today.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I've never found him to be too suspicious, but I'm going to do my best to save my own neck because I know I'm innocent.

++GARIN

I really hope you're a wolf.

[Kath]

Ah, er sorry, Garin! I freely admit I misread that post.

Sauce said:
One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong.


The False Seer experiment failed the second our dear True Seer shuffled off this mortal coil.

The False Seer is now but an innocent villager with no reason to PM the Mod Gods unless he or she likes feeling cheated.

Our Falsie should be more inclined to follow his or her intuition and logic rather than these horrid random dreams. Does Falsie want to be perpetually stuck in day ONE?

I think not.

Once a fool realizes he or she was the fool.... walk away. Sorry Mods.

That was the one I was looking at. It was the walk away bit I believe that threw me.

Um, sorry.

[Garin]

I really hope you're a wolf.

Sorry pal, you are wrong. The village appears doomed.

[Shelob]

(The village square, the tempers which have until now remained fairly under control have begun to break from their constraints as the Third DAY progresses)

Littlemanpoet: (reflecting and slightly remorseful) To be, or not to be – that is the question; Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to NOT CHEAT (here glaring rather accusatorially at SPM and NILP)
Saucepan Man: It was not cheating, and I’m not going to stand here and be insulted like that.
Littlemanpoet: Running away, eh? Come back here and take what’s coming to you.
Aiwendil: I wouldn’t say it was quite cheating, the anagrams were right out in the open, there for anyone to see.
Nilpaurion: Yeah, it was more like in Clue. The rules say “A door is the opening in the wall”, well all the windows have the same sort of holes in the walls. So the windows are doors, it’s not cheating because there’s nothing against it in the rules.
Littlemanpoet: There’s nothing for it in the rules either.
Saucepan Man: Perhaps, but to cheat one must “violate rules deliberately”, we can’t violate rules if they don’t exist.
Littlemanpoet: Oh dear, I hadn’t thought of that. (and promptly vanishes in a puff of [almost] logic)
Formendacil: That was unexpected…
Kath: Too true, might I suggest we move on.
Mormegil: Good idea, I nominate that we should lynch Eomer, as he’s now the most suspicious looking person.
Dancing Spawn: I’ll second that, “hypocrite” indeed.
Eomer: Fair is foul now, keep that in mind.
Farael: And foul fair, but knowing that doesn’t seem to be helping.
Celuien: I don’t know, Garin’s been looking pretty wolfy since Day 1.
Garin: Wolfy?
Glirdan: Gah, this whole thing’s been so confusing. It’s setting up the complete wrong mood for writing music.
Boromir88: Look, it’s getting close to NIGHT, let’s just lynch Garin. He’s got the majority of votes now anyway.

(The villagers mob Garin and manage to get him onto the gallows which are still in the square.)

Garin: I’m telling you, this is a mistake. You’ll regret it you will!

(Regardless of what Garin says the villagers crowd round and pull the lever. Like Gil-Galad before him Garin dies cleanly without any signs of Lycanthropy)

Tar-Ancalime: Again! This isn’t going well at all…not well at all.

(The villagers depart for another NIGHT. They have much to think on, much that needs looking at.)


-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY3

NIGHT 4 begins, Usual PMs, etc.

[Shelob]

(The past night was rainy and so as the villagers make their way through the fields just to the north of their town there is much slipping and many villagers, when they eventually reach Dancing Spawn’s herd of sheep, are covered to some extent with mud. The sheep are, for the most part, grazing though some are still lying asleep.)

Mormegil: It’s a pity it rained last night, if everything weren’t so muddy we might be able to find traces of Dancing Spawn.
Formendacil: Does anyone know how many sheep Spawn looked after?
Eomer: Not really, I can’t recall her ever having said. Why?
Formendacil: It’s just that it seems like there’s more sheep than usual.
Boromir: Perhaps they’re just more spread out than you’ve seen them before, Dancing Spawn isn’t here to keep them from wandering right now.
Glirdan: Or perhaps one of the sheep is Spawn.
Aiwendil: That seems unlikely, I know Spawn cares a great deal for these sheep but I just can’t see her going native.
Glirdan: No, I mean that sheep, (pointing) doesn’t look so much like a sheep sleeping as it does like something wrapped in a sheep skin.

(The two villagers closest to the sheep Glirdan pointed out make their way toward it to investigate)

Farael: Perhaps Spawn is a wolf…in sheep’s clothing.
Saucepan Man: And what? She overslept?
Nilp: (having reached the sheep in question) No, it’s defiantly something that’s not alive wrapped in a sheep skin. Kath, give me a hand will you.

(The two manage to unwrap the sheepskin, which is around Dancing Spawn’s rather mutilated corpse.)

Kath: Urg, unless I’m much mistaken the wolves got her early last night, before the rain really started.

(The other villagers gather around)

Formendacil: Alas poor shepherd, thou art in a perilous state.
Eomer: If these beast be not damned for this, the devil himself…
Farael: We should go back to the village, we have another chance to catch a wolf today and there’s nothing we can do here.

(With that the villagers return to their village square, short another innocent.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4

DAY 4 begins, a bit earlier than usual but then that's the misfortune of my schedule...

[Farael]

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think? We have a smart pack of werewolves in our midst, maybe it's time I change strategy... although I'd much rather see Aiwendil lynched before I do.

[mormegil]

I was convinced after we discovered Garin's innocence and now Spawn's death only shores up my belief that Eomer is guilty.

He will come crying that this is a set up but believe me he was the killer last night. I just can't identify his cohorts yet. Kath? Tar-A? Celuien?

[mormegil]

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think? We have a smart pack of werewolves in our midst, maybe it's time I change strategy... although I'd much rather see Aiwendil lynched before I do.

So then you are just willing to write him off?

This is folly!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Brilliant wolves, just brilliant. They've probably killed two birds with one stone: Spawn and I.

Of course, it's easy for me to see that: I know exactly how the wolves' conversation went last night: "If we kill Spawn, the village will do our job for us and kill Eomer tomorrow."

I am going to have to do one hell of a job to stay alive today.

Nevertheless, I must try.

Did anyone notice that Spawn did not answer my charge of hypocrisy against her? Why an innocent Spawn acted so weird is beyond me. I thought she was being malicious; apparently she was only misguided. I had every intention of bringing her down today because I was certain that the village would eventually come round to my side against Spawn.

Spawn's case against me was (I'll say it again) contrived, false, and based on hypocrisy, as she herself had been acting in a very similar way to me.

Why she had such support yesterday, from SPM, Mormegil and others, baffled me.

Have at it.

[Celuien]

Spawn's death looks like a delibrate framing of Eomer after their sparring for the past couple of days. It's not really something I would expect a wolf Eomer to do since it does automatically make him look really, really bad.

But I'm not going to discount him from consideration. It is entirely possible that a Wereomer would have killed Spawn because it is too obvious, expecting to be discounted from debate as a result.

Ugh. My head hurts. First I was completely wrong about Garin after being almost certain he was guilty, now I'm trying to work through bluffs and double bluffs. I think I need a nap.

EDIT: cross-posted with Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The brilliant thing, from the wolves point of view, is that I would be that bold; and they know it. :smokin:

I'm going to give my predictions for who the wolves are tomorrow. Right now, I'm going to bed.

Oh, and if you want to lynch me then by all means, go ahead. But don't waste this day by jawing about how Eomer is obviously guilty or how Eomer was obviously framed. There are three wolves to find, and I expect you all to be professional. The village doesn't have a lot of time left (especially if the wolves' plan for today is a success).

[Boromir88]

It is Eomer always telling us that we disguard the obvious as "being too bold for a wolf...therefor that person is assumed innocent." It's pretty obvious that Eomer is looking pretty bad right now. So, is he framed or is it an extremely bold move?

I am more suspicious of Aiwendil and those running around in the background (Glirdan, Formendacil, Nilp= don't expect me to assume his innocence Sauce because of a cryptic message. The wolves clearly have an advantage, we lost our true seer, we haven't found a wolf yet, so why be bold and Eomer-wolf pull off a bluff? Yes, Eomer is definitely one (probably the biggest one here) that I think would pull off a bluff, but let's consider these circumstances:

1) They have our Seer.

2) Based on yesterday we have no clue who are wolves and who aren't.

Which leads me to think that the wolves are just leading us in circles and going after Spawn so we call on foul on Eomer. I don't see a reason why the wolves would feel like they need to bluff here, they have control, we are clueless, why bluff when they've been so successful leading us around getting no where?

With that out of the way, I'm not granting Eomer free passage of innocence:

1) It's Eomer he would do it.

2) Spawn may have been on to something with her Eomer convictions and knowing that he would look bad, this was a way to get us all to cry "too obvious for a wolf."

So suspects:

Aiwendil
tar-ancalime
Eomer

I will have more on Glirdan, Formendacil...etc the ones staying out of the messes, as there's been little or no talk on them. One thing I think the wolves want to do is limit talk for the day. Day 1 the seer fiasco, Day 3 the lmp mess, and today they want to make this an Eomer discussion...but by limitting ourselves into this tunnel-vision it gets us nowhere and tells us nothing. You see how discussion yesterday just totally was worthless because it was mostly based around lmp.

I do think there is something to find in the votes yesterday...now it's just finding it...and certainly we should all start taking a harder look at Glirdan, Formendacil, Kath (though she's stepped up her chirpiness), and Celuien.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, dancing spawn's death certainly puts Eomer squarely in the frame. Question is, is it a set up or does a Wolfish Eomer count on us thinking that it is? The interesting thing is that dancing spawn and Eomer both made fair points against each other, based on similar reasoning. Their argument, essentially, was that the other had been raising a lot of suspicions but not making many strong accusations. While the fact that Eomer was wrong about her does not negate spawn's case against him, it does suggest that such cases can be fallible. We need to consider what other evidence there may be to suggest that Eomer is a Wolf.

In the meantime, here is yesterday's voting record:

1. Garin for Boromir88 (Boromir88-1)
2. Mormegil for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-1)
3. Littlemanpoet for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-2)
4. Eomer of the Rohirrim for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-3)
5. Glirdan for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-4)
6. Tar-ancalime for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-5)

Littlemanpoet disappears and the votes agaist him are discounted

7. The Saucepan Man for Kath (Boromir88-1, Kath-1)
8. Celuin for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1)
9. Mormegil for Eomer (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Eomer (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-2)
11. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
12. Aiwendil for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-2, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
13. Kath for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-3, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
14. Boromir88 for Aiwendil (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-3, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-2)
15. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-4, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-2)

Did not vote: Farael, Nilpaurion Felagund

I hope that's right. Things got rather compoicated yesterday, with the whole lmp thing.

I am not surprised about Garin receiving the most votes, as he was a rather suspicious character. Nevertheless, as such, he was the obvious candidates for the Wolves to promote, once littlemanpoet was no longer around. Celuin was the first to give Garin a vote following his disappearance. Aiwendil's vote took him to joint leader. Kath put him ahead on 3 votes. Eomer took his total up to 4, although it is reasonable to assume that he was voting to save himself.

We should also bear in mind those who voted for littlemanpoet and did not then vote again: Glirdan and tar-ancalime. To an extent, I can understand why they did not, as I was in a bit of difficulty myself at that stage trying to work out who looked the most suspicious to me. But you must have had other suspicions.

Farael and Nilp have good excuses for not voting, although I still don't like it. We really need to find a Wolf today and we are only going to do that through discussion, so I would ask that all participate as fully as they are able. Morm's mind seems settled on Eomer, which troubles me as he reached that conclusion with practically no debate having taken place today. While Eomer certainly looks suspicious, we ought to at least consider before condemning him and, even if you are right, morm, we ought still to be considering who the other Wolves might be. My mistake yesterday was to centre all of my thinking around my belief that littlemanpoet was a Wolf.

[Formendacil]

Gads....

I'm still alive.

Pity, that means I have to think, and post, and live through another day of being both sick and misunderstood.

My only thought of the moment, leaping immediately to mind, is that Spawn's death DEFINITELY makes us look at Eomer. For good or ill, for our benefit or the Werewolves', after the stink those two made about each other, we're going to have to look very long and hard at Eomer. It would be a very characteristic bluff for him to draw the attention on himself. On the other hand, we may be expected think that way...

Hmm..... I wonder how Nilp's going to take this...

[tar-ancalime]

Eomer and Boromir are correct that our discussions have been much too singleminded thus far. To be fair, the fact that yesterday's posts were so heavily centered on lmp had a lot to do with him, but we've got to avoid falling into the same pattern again today.

In my opinion we need to hear a lot more from the following people today: Nilpaurion, Formendacil, Celuien, Glirdan. Also Kath, though as others have noted she did increase her posting by the end of yesterday. It's getting too dangerous for anyone to continue to get a free pass just for being quiet or busy...or even sick. Sorry, Formendacil, if that sounds cold, but after losing six Ordinary Villagers and a Gifted, it just isn't in our best interest to continue to soft-pedal anyone anymore. Formendacil is looking particularly worthy of investigation today, because as someone (mormegil, I think?) noted, he's been posting about his illness on this (lie-friendly) thread and not on the planning thread, where the truth is expected.

I am even beginning to wonder if all three wolves aren't "quiet ones." Have we all gotten so used to the bold/accommodating/quiet formula that we assume it and look for it? Imagine if our three wolves were Nilpaurion, Formendacil, and Glirdan. We'd never amass enough evidence on any of them, let alone see the connections among them. Could be that they are all simply behaving very quietly; could be that this is brilliant strategy. Let's not give them any more leeway.

[tar-ancalime]

Several people mentioned yesterday that lmp's death would give them "information" about other people.

lmp is dead.

What's your information? Please share it.

[Farael]

So then you are just willing to write him off?

This is folly!
No, I think it's either a very bold move or a very smart one. Either way, you know whom I want to see lynched above all others, but something tells me Aiwendil that if Aiwendil is indeed an inocent as he says, he won't be lynched until him being lynched, someone else attacked by night and then me being lynched the following morning will give the wolves a win.

What concerns me the most is that if the wolves were willing to set just about anyone up, why am I alive? kill me and Aiwendil is found in the same spot Eomer is right now... maybe even more so as I have been twice as agressive against him that Spawn against Eomer. Of course my arguments might have not been as good but I think Aiwendil would have been just as framed.

This makes me think about two possible scenarios.

1) Eomer is a wolf (the wolves didn't frame Aiwendil, why would they frame him?)
2) Aiwendil is a wolf (that's why he didn't kill me to frame... himself)

I am fairly certain that there ought to be a wolf in either of them two

[Farael]

Actually, I'm certain there is AT LEAST a wolf in them two.... there might even be two wolves

Now, I also forgot to adress tar-a's question...
Well, personally I was hoping LMP would be a wolf (which looked quite likely) and Aiwendil would have been implicated much more strongly.... LMP is not a wolf, but I still think Aiwendil is (stubborn, anyone? =P)

[Aiwendil]

The Play's the Thing . . . going on inside Aiwendil's brain

First synapse: Wow, Spawn's dead. Eomer must be a wolf!
Second synapse: Of course not; that would be way too obvious. It's a frame-up.
Third synapse: But it's too obvious to be a frame-up. And Eomer, knowing that it would look like a frame-up, could very well have done it!
Fourth synapse: But, knowing that everyone would come to that conclusion, the wolves might still have tried to frame him.
Fifth synapse: Yes, but knowing that, Eomer could still be a wolf.
Sixth synapse: Oh, give it up! You were dead wrong about LMP and Garin, so what makes you think you can untangle this mess?

Exeunt omnes

Well, that's the little drama that went on in my head a few minutes ago when I saw that Spawn had been killed. Obviously, we're all familiar with the whole frame-up/double bluff/triple bluff/etc. craziness that's going on here. So what's the point of my little play? Well, it's this. It seems to me that to try to disentangle the psychology of last NIGHT's kill is futile. Either Eomer did it or he's being framed. But beyond that, who can say? Either possibility seems equally plausible to me.

My point is that we shouldn't just stare at Spawn's dead body all day trying to divine who it was that killed her. We need to make a decision about Eomer, but that's not the way to do it. The way to do it is to look at Eomer and decide for ourselves whether he looks like a wolf. For my part, I'll be going back and reading carefully over all Eomer's posts. It's critical that we get this right. If Eomer's a wolf and we lynch him, we'll have scored our first victory. But if he's innocent and we lynch him, we'll be in very dire straits indeed.

I agree that it's important not to let the matter of Eomer prevent us from having any other discussion toDAY. But with both of those whom I chiefly suspected dead and innocent, I'm rather stuck. I need to review the past few DAYs' discussion. In particular, I'm looking at:

Tar-ancalime - I found her somewhat wolvish on DAY 1 but let her off the hook after that, due to my rising suspicion of LMP and Garin. But both of those suspicions were, obviously, way off. I will definitely be looking at Tar again today.

Kath - Could her recent verbosity be a wolf's response to charges that she was too quiet? Something to consider, anyway.

Farael - He went exclusively and ferociously after me until it was pointed out that this looked like a good tactic for a wolf. Then he proposed lynching LMP because, if LMP was guilty, then (by his logic), I probably was too. LMP wasn't guilty, but (surprise, surprise) Farael still wants to lynch me anyway.

Edit: Crossed with Farael

[The Saucepan Man]

What's your information? Please share it.Like Farael, the information that I hoped to gain was based on the assumption that lmp was a Wolf. :rolleyes:

I have been reviewing past events and noticed that I didn't have an opportunity to answer this yesterday, having already left the village square for the evening.

What? SPM? You ask me to talk more so I do, and while I don't wish to get overly defensive I put my own opinions in all through that summary.

In answer to SPM and Eomer's worries over my no vote though I would like to ask you a question. Would you rather that I came in at the end of Day 2 and made a snap decision on a vote (something which SMP at least has already said is a bad thing) or that I analysed what I had seen of Lhuna, deemed her innocent and decided not to vote as any that I made would have been random and of no use to anyone the next Day?Well, as I have said, I was thrown into a lot of doubt yesterday, following the revelation that lmp was innocent. I had already formed the impression that your quietness made you look suspicious. I did see your long analysis of Day 1 before I voted. However, I thought that it came rather late in the day (or three days, I should say). And it seemed to me that you were mainly commenting on the opinions expressed by others rather than putting forward opinions yourself. And doing so on a post by post basis, rather than looking at patterns of behaviour over the three days. That always looks suspicious to me, as a Wolf can avoid saying anything which incriminates him/herself or his/her companions by commenting only on selected statements.

As for whether I would rather you made a snap decision to vote rather than taking your time, well, if the alternative is a no vote, then frankly yes I would. A no vote gives a Wolf a place to hide. I disliked Garin's snap vote because it was at the beginning, rather than the end, of the day. I disliked even more the fact that he was encouraging Formendacil to do the same.

I agree with others that the quiet ones merit consideration. Going into the fourth day, we have very little to go on with regard to Kath, Formendacil, Celuin, Glirdan and Nilp. Yes, you too Nilp. I am beginning to wonder whether I was rash to accept your sign. I hope that I was not. :rolleyes:

One further point occurred to me as I reviewed the past days' events. Mormegil seems to have a knack for putting forward suspicions of, and voting for, the most likely candidates for lynching. On Day 1, he voted for Gil, who was certainly a likely candidate that day. On Day 2, he made out a strong case against littlemanpoet, but voted for Lhuna. Both were looking suspicious, and likely to gain votes, at the time (as indeed they did). And on Day 3, he made a strong case against Garin, littlemanpoet and Eomer, and voted for littlemanpoet (who would almost certainly have been lynched, but for his disappearance) and then for Eomer, another likely candidate to be lynched. And now today, he has come out strongly against Eomer. It is understandable, I suppose, that his main suspicions coincide with the most suspicious-looking villagers, but this tendency of his to pick the villager most likely to be lynched does make me rather uneasy.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Well, personally I was hoping LMP would be a wolf (which looked quite likely) and Aiwendil would have been implicated much more strongly.... LMP is not a wolf, but I still think Aiwendil is (stubborn, anyone? =P)

This is why I'm so strongly against lynching one person in order to "gain information" about another person. What Farael is essentially telling us is, "Yesterday I wanted to lynch lmp in order to gain information on Aiwendil. You see, if lmp was a wolf, then so was Aiwendil. If lmp was innocent, then Aiwendil was a wolf."

I've said it before and I'll say it again: vote for the person you suspect. This indirect stuff doesn't work. It decreases the clarity.

[Farael]

This is why I'm so strongly against lynching one person in order to "gain information" about another person. What Farael is essentially telling us is, "Yesterday I wanted to lynch lmp in order to gain information on Aiwendil. You see, if lmp was a wolf, then so was Aiwendil. If lmp was innocent, then Aiwendil was a wolf."

I've said it before and I'll say it again: vote for the person you suspect. This indirect stuff doesn't work. It decreases the clarity.
I beg to differ tar-ancalime, I never said that I wanted to lynch LMP ONLY to gain information about Aiwendil.... I believe I said it yesterDay, that I was compromising my pursuit of Aiwendil to go after another suspect which in turn would give more information about my main suspect. It all stems from Aiwendil, but if I cant get to him as I tried in the beginning, I will get to him in another way.

[Celuien]

Getting organized here...

Those who are still living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

The Pan Man has already kindly given the customary voting , which I've taked the liberty of reproducing here with proven innocents bolded:

1. Garin for Boromir88 (Boromir88-1)
2. Mormegil for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-1)
3. Littlemanpoet for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-2)
4. Eomer of the Rohirrim for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-3)
5. Glirdan for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-4)
6. Tar-ancalime for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-5)

Littlemanpoet disappears and the votes agaist him are discounted

7. The Saucepan Man for Kath (Boromir88-1, Kath-1)
8. CeluiEn for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1)
9. Mormegil for Eomer (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Eomer (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-2)
11. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
12. Aiwendil for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-2, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
13. Kath for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-3, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
14. Boromir88 for Aiwendil (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-3, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-2)
15. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-4, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-2)

Did not vote: Farael, Nilpaurion Felagund

Now, it's my humble opinion that wolves aren't likely to lead off or finish a campaign against an innocent as it's a rather conspicuous position to be in after being proven wrong. More likely to hide out in the middle, save to spare their own furry necks. The exception to the decision making rule being in a long bandwagon when a vote for the same innocent everyone else is voting for doesn't stand out quite so much, a 4-2 margin not being any different from a 3-2 margin. By that reasoning, morm, and if I dare say it, your fountain-dwelling frog, look a bit less suspicious, despite our both being all wet with our wolf-detecting judgment (morm for lmp and my vote for Garin). Conversely, Kath and Eomer give very safe votes, with Eomer taking the safe route in both the initial vote for lmp and the subsequent Garin fiasco. So that would bring us down to...

Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Kath
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

...as possibilities for today.

For my part, I find SpM trustworthy. Nor do I particularly suspect Aiwendil, Farael's case against him nonwithstanding. Tar-a seems innocent on the basis of her calls for clarity and her good analysis. Same goes for Boro, who I find myself believing in more and more as time goes by. Hopefully I haven't been fooled.

That leaves me to work with Farael, Glirdan, Formendacil, Nilp, Eomer and Kath.

If Eomer is a wolf, Farael most likely is not on the basis of post 342 (and vice-versa). Glirdy, Form, Nilp and Kath haven't really said enough to sway me in wither direction. Which leaves Eomer. Again.

I don't know what to do. Eomer is looking very bad, but at the same time, spawn's death was such an obvious move to set him up if he is innocent that I'm not completely comfortable with the Wereomer theory. Particularly given my dismal record in the past few days. Time permitting, I'll probably try to vote very late in this DAY, after I've had time to really consider everything, look at what everyone has said, and hopefully have a bit more information.

[Boromir88]

I may have to kind of redirect where I'm going. Before lmp pulled out he had 5 votes (one was his), I'm inclined to think one of those 4 other votes was a wolf (at the least). We all knew lmp would be lynched and after Garin's vote for me there was a big bandwagon gathering full steam against him. In order:

Mormegil
lmp
Eomer
Glirdan
Tar-ancalime

I'm not sure what to make of mormegil. He's consistently gone after the most suspicious and has been strong in attacking his suspects. I am willing to say though that the other 3 who voted for lmp look more wolfish then mormegil. Because after lmp makes his announcement that he wants out I'm sure at least one wolf would jump at the oppurtunity.

Which was why I was opposed to an lmp bandwagon yesterday. Yes, he wanted gone, but by the whole village (most of it) jumping on and voting for him it just lets the wolves hide amongst the entire village. So, I'm thinking that at least one wolf anxiously jumped at lmp's vote.

This goes to point more fingers at Eomer and build his suspicioun. But I think it also points strong fingers at Glirdan and tar, who I don't think showed prior suspicioun of lmp. Tar gave the reasoning of since lmp wanted out of the village she would be more than happy to ablige, because we don't need a villager that doesn't want to be a part of the village. I can understand that reasoning, and the most suspicious of the group looks to be Glirdan. Who backed down from his vote and followed along with Kath's reasoning from the prior day that he was confused.

I'm never a strong advocate for not voting, even if you have to vote more or less randomly. In Kath's instance she was gone all day and her seems more understandable. But I look at Glirdan pulling out his vote, there would still be plenty of time for him to find something, go to his next suspicious person, instead he just pulls out and says he won't vote randomly...this doesn't seem to fit right with me, because to me there was plenty of time left after lmp pulled out to re-evaluate and find another suspect.

So Glirdan jumping onto lmp, when lmp pulls out, Glirdan withdraws his vote, then his no vote goes to look like he doesn't want to get his hands in another mess.

So, Tar-ancalime, that's what I meant be being able to find something in the votes.

My feelings on Aiwendil are purely circumstantial. He has been providing some valuable input, and the "grayness" could be good in that he can access both sides instead of just being tunnel-visioned. But, that also looks suspicious as marked several times.

In no particulare order now:

Glirdan
Aiwendil
Eomer
Tar-ancalime

[mormegil]

I'm a bit frustrated at many of you right now, it seems that we are all saying that 'Eomer is worth watching' but most are not. Even any of you applied a modicum amount of the knowledge we posses of Eomer, then we would know that he could definately pull this off. I'm glad that I am at least willing to put myself on the line and proclaim my belief of his guilt. He seems to be smoother when more pressure is on him.

I'm going to give my predictions for who the wolves are tomorrow. Right now, I'm going to bed.

Why not now? You obviously have them and why not share? It could be of great benefit in knowing your guilt/innocence and yet you refuse to give our that info. Why? I don't like it.

Formendacil, until I see a post at town hall declaring your illness true and legitamate I will suspect you and may vote for you.

Tar-A I think is likely to be a wolf. She sneaked out of a dangerous situation on Day 1 and has been riding that wave since. I think it's time she got some more heat!

One further point occurred to me as I reviewed the past days' events. Mormegil seems to have a knack for putting forward suspicions of, and voting for, the most likely candidates for lynching.

So I vote for those I put forward as suspicious...well I must be a wolf :rolleyes:

[Aiwendil]

Well, I've just gone back and re-read most of the discussion (starting all the way back at DAY 1), with particular attention to those who seem the most interesting to me at the moment. For what it's worth, here are my thoughts.

I've been considering Eomer most thoroughly, for obvious reasons. I still don't get much of a sense of wolvishness from his posts. If it weren't for the fact of Dancing Spawn's death, I don't think I'd consider him a prime suspect at this point. Spawn's arguments are mainly concerned with the fact that Eomer has seemed hesitant to accuse people. She does have something of a point here. But this is rather shaky evidence upon which to lynch someone. Moreover, it seems to me that the same charge could be made against several other villagers (Kath, Celuien, Glirdan, and even Spawn herself prior to her attack on Eomer). He is somewhat defensive in response to Spawn's attack. Rather reminds me of LMP. I made the mistake of thinking that his apparent over-reaction to being accused looked wolvish. I don't want to make the same mistake twice.

But the thing that really has me leaning toward Eomer's innocence is actually the same thing that caused Spawn to suspect him. We all know that Eomer would be a bold wolf - so bold that there's a real possibility that he would, indeed, have killed Spawn. But if he's such a bold wolf, why would he more or less "play it safe" in terms of accusations? It strikes me that if Eomer were a wolf, he wouldn't be afraid to take a risk and accuse someone. His "playing it safe" - i.e., perhaps, playing it rationally - looks more like something he'd do if innocent.

Mind you, if he turns out to be a wolf I'm sure a few choice words will run through my mind . . .

As for the other people I've been looking at and/or have caught my eye:

Tar-ancalime - I'm increasingly thinking that my less informed DAY 1 opinion of her (i.e. that she's a wolf) was correct. After coming under some scrutiny early on, she's managed to avoid suspicion for the most part. Yet I still can't put my finger on what's making me so nervous about her.

Kath - The two times that she has actually voted, it's been for Gil and Garin - both fairly "safe". But what really worries me about her is her quietness, followed suddenly by long analyses (when people start to comment on the quietness). Not a top suspect yet, but I'd definitely like to hear more from her.

Farael - He's really starting to look like a wolf to me. Other than attacking me, the one thing he's really done is suggest that we lynch LMP (to get information about me, of course). Now, I also thought we should lynch LMP - but that's because I thought he was a wolf. I'm also not quite sure what "information" he thought he'd get. He decided that if LMP was a wolf, then I'm a wolf, and if LMP wasn't a wolf . . . then I'm a wolf. Farael, how about telling us what you think of the other villagers? Whom else do you suspect? Or am I all three wolves at once?

Formendacil - He still worries me a little bit. I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, but only because there are others who concern me more.

[Farael]

Read above Aiwendil, I'm voicing some suspicions about Eomer. That's two wolves ;) The third is probably one of the smart guys, but he (or she) can wait 'till we rid ourselves of you and Eomer... odd that now you are defending Eomer, don't you think? and on a bit of a crooked premise.

Wolf Eomer would be bold. Yet the Eomer we see in the village is not bold, therefore the wolf aspect of Eomer could not possibly be as bold as it'd be needed to kill Spawn?

Well, Aiwendil I beg to differ!! Isn't it quite convenient for a wolf to do so? appear one way, act another... heck, that's the definition of a werewolf! Appear innocent, be guilty... appear hesitant, act boldly... come on, you can do better than that to defend your fellow wolf, can't you?

[Formendacil]

Formendacil, until I see a post at town hall declaring your illness true and legitamate I will suspect you and may vote for you.

By all means, suspect me and vote for me- notice or no notice (although you have irked me into posting a notice, something I tend to disdain, being of the opinion that Real Life issues need not intrude on Werewolf). But to base suspicion of me on whether or not I am sick is silly...

Anyway, I am sick, and it's making me quite irritable. All this talk of "hearing more from the quiet ones". I ask you, when has it EVER produced a tangible increase in noise from the "quiet ones"?

Of course, I do appreciate the fact that you're rather feeling a lack of things to go by where "certain" quiet ones are concerned. However, continual harping about "needing to hear more" is something that you'd THINK would have died out after 17+ mainstream games of Werewolf. But no....

Now, things are very grim in this village. Other than our Seer, the Gifteds remain untouched, but the number of Innocents goes in only one direction: down. And the Werewolves have been touched not at all.

Therefore, let me make an announcement I was planning on saving for a little while, until a "Proven Innocent" could be more useful:

I AM THE FOOL.

That is correct, I am the Village Fool. And I defy any Werewolf to contradict me. And trust me, they won't, because so far this village seems to be clueless as to who the Werewolves are. Therefore, challenging my claim is tantamount to saying "I am a Werewolf".

Of course, it could mean that I'll be killed tonight... but so what? I'm not a real Gifted! I don't even have the foggiest idea who the Werewolves might be, and I'm not one of the Village Thinkers to figure it out on my own.

So, if I have nothing to offer fear to the Werewolves or help to the Village, why bother revealing myself?

To knock one name off that "possibly guilty" list.

Thank you, Eaumor, and Good Night.

[mormegil]

Well Formendacil, despite being ill I see that you are also a bit petulant. However I forgive you on the fact that you are ill. Incidentally thank you for 'dragging yourself across town' to let us know. You see the problem I was having though, if you weren't sick you could have been using it as cover to be quiet and therefore give no solid evidence. As it stands I am glad that you came forward when you did. Mounting suspicion against you will only cloud the judgement of our town. Now I believe you that you are innocent and this will benefit the village.

I think I may have a read through of all of tar-a's posts, though I'm beginning to think that perhaps Holby did dream of her and that they were frightened so the Seer kill was not luck.

[mormegil]

Post 6 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447682&postcount=6)

A strange post. One thing that sticks out is here use of the double negative. Is it that I’ve assigned those to Mordor or a slip on her part? Either way I don’t like it.


No noose neither.


Post 10 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447692&postcount=10)

But I'm not sure that this free for all, make as much money as you can state of things isn't worse!

Nothing wrong with a good healthy dose of capitalism, eh, comrade?

Another odd thing that caught my attention. It could be a simple jab at socioeconomic systems or she could actually be so bold as to call Kath her comrade and italicize it.


Post 22 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447729&postcount=22)


The ‘moratorium on seer talk’ post. The problem here is this that I can view this either way. Innocent, she is sincere and is hoping that the seers remain hidden; guilty and she is hoping to catch the seer soon and use this post to help show her innocence in the matter.

Post 35 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447779&postcount=35)

She comes across as mild mannered and fairly agreeable. I noticed that she tries to identify herself somewhat with Lhuna. Also she states that she will suspect those that don’t agree with her. I find this an odd statement.

Post 36 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447781&postcount=36)

Missed the last part of what Lhuna said and states really nothing new.

Post 44 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447813&postcount=44)

This is the post where she takes issue with Dancing Spawn’s synopsis of events so far. She finds it suspicious that she has posted such a long post and said so little. Yet, in my mind, tar-ancalime was doing the exact same thing, except she posted shorter posts but very frequent and they hadn’t really added anything to help out, per se. She also says that she is done with seer talk and puts her little disclaimer in.

I’m not sure if I want to make too much of this statement but I do want to mention it.


We've got to focus on lynching a wolf tonight and creating a useful voting record

It’s the ‘tonight’ bit that bothers me. I live further west than most and it was 6AM so night time wasn’t near and I don’t believe it was across the pond either. It could be innocent yet it could be a slip up and she was thinking about her wolf strategy for the night. I’m inclined to think it means nothing but I did want to mention it.

Post 50 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447833&postcount=50)

Changes suspicion off Spawn and ‘mostly random’ chooses Eomer to vote for. Says something like if you’re innocent I’d want you on my team, but if your guilty I’d rather be done with you before we get started. In my opinion, if he’s that strong a player and such an asset why randomly vote for him if you don’t have any real suspicion of him? He can be very useful if innocent (which I don’t’ see that he has been very useful yet…hmmm…) but killing Eomer if innocent would be a much graver mistake than killing an innocent Gil. This could be an early wolf on wolf vote as I am not convinced of Eomer’s innocence. Later she also is adamant about only voting for those who you suspect. I realize it's day 1 but be consistent.

Of note Aiwendil votes for her in Post 80 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447915&postcount=80). Also very damning is Holby’s vote for her in Post 92. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447948&postcount=92) I feel Holby may have dreamt of her and that she included Lhuna, with less substantial reasons (occupation) to help cover her tracks. However the wolves cued in on that and went in for the kill. Also Holby voted for her at a time when there was still a reasonable chance for her to get lynched. I could be wrong but Holby may have dreamt of tar-ancalime.

Post 124 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448248&postcount=124)

Decides there is no reason to review Gil’s post and finds the Boromir bandwagon suspicious. Disagrees with Garin’s reasons for voting for Boromir. Suspects LMP and Garin due to their vote and is willing to assume that Formen and Anguirel’s votes were okay. Interesting to note that all four whom voted for Boromir on day 1 are innocent and she is going after two of them here.


Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.

I find this interesting also. I just don’t see the need for it and it seems like a nervous wolf stating this.

Post 127 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448253&postcount=127)

Was confused about the double lynching rule, which I admitted already I was too.

Post 129 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448257&postcount=129)

Thanks SpM for pointing that out and states that she is still confused about the Boromir bandwagon.

Post 141 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448287&postcount=141)

She responds to Boromir’s suspicion of her quote that I put just above and quotes Garin as her reason to supply this.


Post 161 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448340&postcount=161)

Gets a bit uppity about somebody saying that she is flip-flopping on her position.


Her calm response that she had done it largely to gather her own thoughts (she didn't ignore me, nor did she get defensive), added to the fact that no one else seemed to have a problem with her post, led me to relax my stance.


I could, again, be twisting this but it seems to me that she is saying ‘well nobody was biting on my bait to get Spawn lynched so I let it be’. Wolfish in my mind.

Post 172 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448425&postcount=172)

Says that she’s not suspicious of any of the day’s leader on the suspicion chart except Garin and proceeds to vote for him.

Of note Anguirel speaks against tar-ancalime in Post 173 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448436&postcount=173) and distrusts all post like her 172. Anguirel dies that night. Holby doesn’t’ agree with her and ends up dead. Anguirel doesn’t agree with her and he ends up dead which brings us back to her earlier quote that essentially she doesn’t like people ever disagreeing with her.


Post 234 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448851&postcount=234)

This is her first post of the day and she quickly points out that she doesn’t believe it points to anybody, whereas I believe I’ve just shown that it could. This alone raises my suspicion of her immensely.

Post 237 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448858&postcount=237)

Agrees with Kath that Formendacil’s vote shouldn’t be rushed as was suggested by Garin.

Post 244 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448878&postcount=244)

Farael's accusations are either based on a refusal to understand Aiwendil's sometimes subtle reasoning and willingness to consider several viewpoints and shades of gray (which style, as I have found to my own detriment, can be taken as a refusal to commit to one line of thinking), or they are totally unfounded

So she is saying that she refuses to commit to only one line of thinking and yet Anguirel pointed out that she did do that in relation to Garin and this is why he didn’t trust her. She refused to consider the others and said that there is only one or two possibilities.

She also says that the Eomer—Spawn feud is a bit ‘contrived’ and she pushes more of the blame for this on Spawn. Now we know Spawn is innocent so it would be reasonable for tar-a to cast some suspicion onto Eomer and yet give the greater portion to Spawn.

Accuses me of flying under the radar.

States her suspects and says that Garin and LMP are the highest.

Post 247 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448883&postcount=247)

Doesn’t fully agree with Farael that killing LMP might be a good idea but we really should look at those who aren’t contributing and would provide some useful information upon their death.

Post 258 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448908&postcount=258)

Finds it disconcerting that Boromir and LMP suddenly don’t suspect each other. As LMP is innocent and I find no real suspicion in Boromir I don’t find their sudden change disconcerting at all. I do find it disconcerting that you seem to be testing the water for any takers to your bait again.

Post 261 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448918&postcount=261)

Comments on Nilp’s sign.

Post 285 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448997&postcount=285)

Votes for LMP as he doesn’t want to be here anyway so we might as well get rid of him.

Post 289 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=449005&postcount=289)

Forgoes changing her vote because she doesn’t want to make it uninformed citing Kath’s previous example. It’s interesting though that she had some strong thoughts on Garin and yet didn’t vote for him when she could have.

Post 340 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=449255&postcount=340)

She says we got too bogged down in LMP talk yesterday and suggests that all wolves might be quiet ones. Takes notice of my observation that Formendacil hadn’t officially noted his illness and therefore it could be a ploy.

Post 341 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=449257&postcount=341)

Says that many stated that LMP’s death would give information and she requested what information we gleaned from his death.

Post 346 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=449265&postcount=346)

Complains about killing LMP for information and that we should vote for those whom we really suspect and yet she didn’t vote for Garin when she had the chance yesterday.


END OF POSTS

So where does this leave me? I am still very suspicious of tar-ancalime and feel that she may be a wolf but I am not fully convinced at least not enough to vote for her yet. However, Eomer and she are most likely to receive my vote and unless light is shed upon somebody else don’t’ be surprised to see a vote their way.

Upon rereading my analysis I came to the realization of just how non-commital and safe she has been. She almost refuses to come out and openly accuse anybody and is usually taking the safe path. I find these two ponits very critical in my opinion and therefore I believe my vote most likely will go to tar-ancalime.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Thank you for not counting me out of this. I was thinking of telling spawn to tell Shelob to pull me out because of certain problems in this country.

Good thing I didn't. I managed to make it in.

Enedwaith, I'll be reviewing toDAY, and I'll be posting some thoughts later. I promised to make up for my disappearance DAY 3, and I will.

Good day.

[tar-ancalime]

It’s the ‘tonight’ bit that bothers me. I live further west than most and it was 6AM so night time wasn’t near and I don’t believe it was across the pond either.

morm, like Formendacil I hate to clutter this thread with non-game information, but I live in Bangkok.

You seem to have latched on to every joke I've made--my in-character grammatical error made for the sake of alliteration ("no noose neither"). My use of "comrade" was a total joke, based on Kath's complaining about people making money off a tragedy. And my statement about suspecting people who disagree with me was completely tongue-in-cheek. I guess I'll be a little more careful about using humor from now on.

Holby did not dream of me. This has been suggested before. If she had dreamed of me she would not have voted for me. I'll say it again. Holby did not dream of me.

I did make a mistake not voting for Garin yesterday. However, imagine if I had: that would look wolvish to you as well, wouldn't it?

I disagree that I've been playing "safe." I have made several suggestions; no one has agreed with me, and so I've been accused of backing off. I'm not backing off any of them; however, I"m not pursuing anything with the singleminded zeal of Farael (for instance), so I can see how my method of throwing out ideas could be perceived as a little fickle. Rest assured, though, that I haven't posted a single thing I didn't believe.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I don't see a reason why the wolves would feel like they need to bluff here, they have control, we are clueless, why bluff when they've been so successful leading us around getting no where? (Boro)
I'm a bit frustrated at many of you right now, it seems that we are all saying that 'Eomer is worth watching' but most are not. Even any of you applied a modicum amount of the knowledge we posses of Eomer, then we would know that he could definately pull this off. I'm glad that I am at least willing to put myself on the line and proclaim my belief of his guilt. He seems to be smoother when more pressure is on him. (morm)

Okay, here's what I think. If Eomer's a Werewolf, Boro's 'defence' of him will make him look fanged. If Eomer isn't, morm's persistence in running the case against him makes him look fanged.

The problem is, to determine Eomer's guilt or innocence, we have to lynch him. I'm more inclined to agree with Boro here. The Werewolves are controlling the village. They feed us a bit of bait, and we follow around like a school of tuna. This trend has to be stopped.

But I think Eomer's quite suspicious. And, perhaps a wolf-Boro is using his theory to lead us away from their fellow, thus reinforcing their belief that Eaumor is indeed theirs.

Ah, that was but a ramble. More thoughts later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I've been looking at the Eomer affair from another angle. Since Eomer saw that everyone's suspicion was heading for him, don't you think he might have pulled off this bluff to exculpate him?

In which case, Boro would look bad (see above post).

Despite the nagging doubt that the Werewolves are playing us for fools, this thought is gaining reason in my head.

*[i]shrug* Oh, well. I can do no more toDAY. I'm on borrowed time.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I feel stupid.

[Boromir88]

But I think Eomer's quite suspicious. And, perhaps a wolf-Boro is using his theory to lead us away from their fellow, thus reinforcing their belief that Eaumor is indeed theirs.

Now let us not be so narrow-minded and quick to judge who is and who isn't a wolf (based on Eomer's guilt/innocence), that kind of thought will certainly lead you off the wolves trail.

mormegil has only caused suspiciouns of tar-ancalime to grow in me, and Glirdan keeps going up as I mentioned earlier. I have a strong feeling that 4 of those who voted for lmp yesterday, is certainly a wolf. A wolf would jump at the oppurtunity to cause such a break a way in voting and and get the entire village to band wagon against lmp. Which is never a good idea, because then the vote records would be more or less worthless. I'm glad lmp pulled out as it spread out the voting yesterday and made it more difficult for the wolves.

So what on those who did not vote for lmp?

There's probably a wolf with the Garin voters as well. Eomer's vote looks bad, but whether he is wolf or innocent we expect someone not to vote for themselves. (Unless your lmp)?

Garin's votes also attracts to Aiwendil and Kath, who got things spread out and looks as if they were swinging the votes away from Eomer and towards Garin. Garin was Aiwendil's main suspect throug the day so his doesn't look as suspicious as Kath's...hmmmm

I thank you Formendacil for stepping out this gives us one KNOWN innocent making it a whole bunch easier. Even though your dreams may be random, I would encourage you to step out and share what information you have, it may be of some benefit.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

An interesting case against Tar-Ancalime you have there, Mormegil. I'd make this point though: You say that she killed Holby and then Anguirel because they disagreed with her. Wouldn't the other two wolves put the brakes on this? Unless, of course, the other two wolves were subject to absolutely no suspicion on Day One and Two. Or they could be taking her for a ride (or she they).

Anyway Mormegil, the reason I didn't give my suspect list last night was because I knew it would probably change the next day! So here I am, and soon I will give a list of my suspects.

Why does Nilp 'feel stupid' immediately after voting for me?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Boro, didn't we establish earlier that the False Seer's dreams tell us nothing?

[The Saucepan Man]

So I vote for those I put forward as suspicious...well I must be a wolfNo. I said that it was understandable that your suspicions coincide with the most suspicious-looking villagers, but that your knack of picking the villager most likely to be lynched made me uneasy. Now, I tend to view villagers who make strong accusations of those looking most suspicious as likely innocents, on the basis that it is risky for a Wolf to be caught instigating or riding in a bandwagon that ends in an innocent being lynched. But perhaps you are banking on others thinking the same way. It’s probably not enough to warrant a vote today, I’ll grant you, but I’ll be keeping an eye on you.

My thoughts on everyone else.

Farael: I really don’t get Farael’s approach. He goes all out for Aiwendil, then decides that it might be worth lynching lmp as a test of Aiwendil’s guilt. He speculated that, if lmp was proved to be a Wolf, then that would suggest that Aiwendil was one too. Yet, when lmp is proved innocent, he still believes Aiwendil to be a Wolf. I don’t understand that at all. It is looking increasingly to me like Farael is a Wolf who has based his strategy on focusing on just a small group of innocents, possibly those whom the Wolves regard as dangerous.

Mormegil: My thoughts on mormegil are set out above. I don’t think the case for him being a Wolf is strong enough to vote for him – yet. But, if he keeps featuring so strongly in these moves against suspicious looking villagers who turn out to be innocent, I will start looking very closely at him.

Aiwendil: As I have said, I really don’t understand Farael’s case against Aiwendil. I certainly cannot see how lmp’s innocence implicates him as a Wolf. He seems to me to have been thoughtful and helpful throughout. Not so much “flip-flopping” as carefully weighing up the evidence. Perhaps those who suspect him would care to explain the reasoning for their suspicions a little more clearly, because I can see very little that suggests that he is a Wolf.

Glirdan: I said yesterday that I would like to hear more from him and that remains the case. His quietness and the seemingly non-committal nature of the contributions that he has made, however, is making him look increasingly suspicious. I am no longer prepared to regard him as a probable innocent.

Formendacil: I believe his claim to be the False Seer. It’s possible that he is a Wolf trying to pull the wool over our eyes and banking on the fact that we will view any subsequent False Seer claim as an obvious Wolfish move. But, as he was under no particular danger, I doubt that he would have taken the risk of making this claim, if a Wolf.

Nilpaurion Felagund: He has contributed more today, but little more than a vote for Eomer and a comment that Boro would look bad if Eomer turns out to be a Wolf. I like to think that I can still trust him, though.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: For me, the question of whether Eomer is a Wolf depends upon whether spawn’s death was a Wolfish attempt to frame him or a bold Wolfish move. I have reviewed his posts again and can see little more to go on other than that which has already been noted (by spawn and me, among others). His pattern of behaviour could go either way for me. Certainly, I would have expected a Wolfish Eomer to have been more bold in his daytime behaviour, but equally I would expect a Wolfish Eomer to be bold enough to kill spawn. Definitely one of my main suspects, though.

Kath: Nothing from her today, so nothing to add to my thoughts expressed earlier today. It is notable that she made a few lengthy contributions after her quietness had been noted, and that they comprised a villager by villager analysis of the first three days, rather than a more helpful analysis of patterns of behaviour. Still looking suspicious to me.

Celuien: One of my prime suspects from the first few days, although that was largely based on her attempt to divert suspicion on Day 1, following morm’s random accusation of her. Has managed to avoid much suspicion so far and, if non-committal posts and a tendency to express no strong suspicions are to be taken as a sign of Wolfishness, then she fits the pattern.

Tar-Ancalime: Holby’s vote for tar followed by her death has diverted my gaze from her for too long. I am increasingly coming round to the view that, whether Holby dreamed of her or not, a Wolfish tar thought that she might be the Seer on the basis of that vote and killed her for it. It’s either that or the Wolves got very lucky. That Day 1 vote for Eomer also still looks suspicious to me. If Eomer is a Wolf, then it could have been a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote. And, even if not, then it still looks like a safe vote for a Wolf at that time. Looking increasingly suspicious to me.

Boromir88: Boro, on the other hand, looks increasingly innocent to me as time wears on. He seems genuine in his attempts to find the Wolves. He has been neither non-committal, expressing strong suspicions at times, nor hasty, always giving good reasoning for his thoughts. Sometimes, when one thinks someone is innocent, one has to stick to that belief (in the absence of evidence to the contrary), no matter the risk of ending up looking extremely foolish. And I’m sticking to my belief that Boro is most likely innocent.

As usual, a summary of where this gets me:

Main suspects: Farael, Eomer, Kath, tar-ancalime

Making me nervous: mormegil, Celuin

Just don’t know: Glirdan

Probably innocent: Aiwendil, Nilp, Boro

Almost certainly innocent: Formendacil

I have time before I cast my vote but, unless there are any major developments, it is likely to go to one of my current main suspects.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

I explained before how weird I thought Farael's case against Aiwendil, and the reaction from the village, was. Comes out, all guns blazing, with little evidence (as I see it) for an attack on Aiwendil. Celuien and Nilpaurion (as well as Lhunardawen, to be fair) both shrug him off as likely to be innocent. I think this may well have been the wolf-agenda for the first night. Farael decided he would pick a target and the others (or one of the others) would back him up. The village was distracted with other stuff (like the Seer talk) and would probably just take the other wolf's word for it. And that other wolf is either Celuien or Nilpaurion.

My money's on Nilp, simply because of that weirdness he pulled earlier on—that 'I feel stupid' post. That's not helping anyone. It's designed to be vague and to confuse us, and since he's under barely any suspicion (SPM trusts him because of that anagram, which I think is a very dangerous move to make) he could get away with this because the village would probably say 'Oh Nilp! and nothing more.

The third wolf? Could be Celuien herself. Could be SPM with his friendliness towards Nilp. Could be Aiwendil and the whole Farael feud is a hoax. Kath is looking more and more suspicious with that unhelpful summary and lack of any suspect at all in the first two days.

Glirdan I just cannot tell. Tar-Ancalime could go either way. Mormegil I'm inclined to think is a somewhat rash but true villager.

Formendacil's claim is almost definitely genuine because the real False Seer would have nothing to lose by coming out against him.

Boromir I am inclined to trust.


Incidentally, am I being shrill or smooth or both? Because I'm enjoying the advantages and disadvantages of both at the moment. :p (Hint: make up your mind.)

[Celuien]

If I'm non-committal, it's because I'm genuinely unsure of what to think. I don't want to rashly accuse and have us lose another innocent. Especially given that I've been so terribly wrong. I was sure of Garin, and look where that led me. Not looking to repeat that mistake.

I believe Fordmenacil. An impersonator would have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

I don't expect you to take my word for it, Eomer, but if your list of Farael,
Nilpaurion and myself does have two wolves on it, one is not me. And of Nilp and Farael, on consideration, I find the latter the more suspicious given the lmp/Aiwendil business discussed above.


Anyway, I probably will not be voting for Eomer toDAY unless something radically changes. I will, however, continue to watch him.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been reviewing mormegil's case against tar-ancalime. While much of it is circumstantial, and some of it is based on what I think were jokey or "in-character" comments, he makes a very good point here:

Forgoes changing her vote because she doesn’t want to make it uninformed citing Kath’s previous example. It’s interesting though that she had some strong thoughts on Garin and yet didn’t vote for him when she could have.Tar has accepted that this was a mistake but said that, if she had voted for Garin, that would have been seen as Wolfish too. Actually, as I have said, I am more inclined to believe that those who vote for innocent villagers who are likely to be lynched (and thereby shown to be innocent) are likely to be innocent themselves, because it is such risky behaviour for a Wolf. To express strong suspicions about an innocent villager and then not vote for him, leaving others to do the lynching, looks a lot more suspicious to me.

Incidentally, am I being shrill or smooth or both? Because I'm enjoying the advantages and disadvantages of both at the moment.Actually, it seems to me that you are being both by turn. Although, I am not sure what to make of that. I would expect a Wolf to be more consistent, but it may be designed to confuse us.

[Aiwendil]

Like Mormegil, the more I think about tar-ancalime, the more she looks like a wolf to me. A wolf playing a pretty good game, but a wolf nonetheless. It's a good point, and one I'm afraid I hadn't noticed, that Holbytlass voted for her on DAY 1. I don't want to jump to a conclusion and say that Holbytlass definitely dreamt of tar, but it's a distinct possibility. Although I'd think the Seer would be more likely to dream of, say, SPM or Mormegil or Boromir on the first NIGHT.

In any case, I'm seriously thinking about voting for tar. There's no single thing that makes her look like a wolf to me, but taking all her posts together I still get a very bad feeling from her.

Now, I don't want to follow Farael's specious reasoning about lynching someone for "information", but I do think that if tar turns out to be a wolf, then Eomer is probably a wolf too. That vote for Eomer on DAY 1, passed off as a random vote with no evidence, looks very much like a wolvish trick to me. And, much as I hate to mention "past lives", I've, uh . . . heard that an ancestor of Form did much the same thing to an ancestor of Spawn in a village my great-great-grandfolks lived in.

On the other hand, if tar and/or Eomer are innocent, I will certainly be taking a closer look at Mormegil.

[mormegil]

I have been reviewing mormegil's case against tar-ancalime. While much of it is circumstantial, and some of it is based on what I think were jokey or "in-character" comments,

and

You seem to have latched on to every joke I've made--my in-character grammatical error made for the sake of alliteration ("no noose neither"). My use of "comrade" was a total joke, based on Kath's complaining about people making money off a tragedy. And my statement about suspecting people who disagree with me was completely tongue-in-cheek. I guess I'll be a little more careful about using humor from now on.

Both of you noted this and I think you over-reacted Tar. I myself noted the same thing and commented that it might be nothing but I was doing an analysis of you and it's only proper to include everything that I may view as suspicious, is it not?

As far as my vote stands I think I'm likely to vote Eomer. He's making me uneasy and seems to be attempting to find somebody else to throw suspicion on deflecting it off himself.

[tar-ancalime]

Good heavens! My random vote from Day 1 has generated more discussion than any other vote in this game.

I'm inclined to put the people who are still alive into two groups: the loud and the quiet.

Quiet:

Glirdan
Formendacil
Kath
Celuien
Nilpaurion Felagund

Loud:

Saucepan Man
mormegil
Boromir88
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Farael
Aiwendil
tar-ancalime

Both groups look suspicious to me. Could it be I'm getting a little paranoid? I'll look at the quiet villagers first.

I believe Formendacil when he says he's the Fool. In general when someone comes out as Gifted (or...differently abled, or whatever you'd call the Fool) I feel it's best to behave as though it's true--if it's not, the truth will out eventually and it generally doesn't take long. In this case I really do believe him, and as I am grasping at straws to find suspects, one known innocent makes things that much easier.

Glirdan is making me very nervous with his limited participation. Very nervous. As I mentioned earlier today, it's past time for us to stop giving the silent ones the "benefit of the doubt."

Kath has contributed, but as others have noted it's only been after her quietness was remarked upon. However, such a quick turnabout is not too subtle--surely wolf-Kath would know better than to shift gears like that. I'm inclined to think her innocent.

I"m not sure what to make of Celuien. Although she has contributed, she's left almost no impression on me. This is why I"ve put her in the "quiet" camp.

I'm thinking of Nilpaurion Felagund in the same way as Glirdan. I understand he's had some reasons to be away from the game, but that doesn't preclude his being a wolf and we've got no real reason to believe he's not. That anagram, while it seems to have persuaded Saucepan Man, is no guarantee. It could be a filthy fanged lie.

So, among the quiet folk, I'd suspect Glirdan and Nilpaurion. I'm on the fence about Celuien, and I think Kath and Formendacil are likely to be innocent.

Now, for the talkers.

This is both easier (more to go on) and more difficult (more to go on).

Farael's attacks on Aiwendil are getting ridiculous. Everything points back to Aiwendil, does it? lmp-wolf = Aiwendil-wolf. lmp-innocent = Aiwendil-wolf. Eomer is a wolf, and so is Aiwendil. It's a strange strategy, and it makes me nervous.

Aiwendil, Boromir88, The Saucepan Man, and (of course) mormegil have all put me on their suspect lists today. Being a megalomaniac, I'd like to consider them primarily through this lens. (Actually it's because it's the only point on which I'm sure they're all wrong--seems like an instructive exercise.)

Aiwendil voted for me on Day 1. He's the only one of the four to have done so, and I think his suspicions of me are genuine, if misguided. That dratted Holby vote! She did not dream of me.

mormegil puts together an exhaustive "case" against me, which consists mostly of rehashing everything I've said. It's impressive in its sheer magnitude, but it doesn't seem to say much. Then again, I know it's not true.

Boromir88, on the other hand, has never voiced a concrete suspicion of me. I show up on his suspect lists regularly. Several times he has posted to the effect that I'm not getting enough attention. His suspicions of me seem to be based largely on his idea that others are not suspecting me enough. He has voiced this opinion on more than one day, in more than one circumstance. He has never voted for me. Confusing? Yeah. Sounds to me like he's trying to get something going without getting his hands dirty.

The Saucepan Man says he's interested in mormegil's case against me. He particularly notes my failure to vote for Garin last night (and yes, mormegil, it was very late at night). I've accepted that this was a mistake; I only hope it doesn't get me lynched.

Eomer of the Rohirrim is playing his own game. He's not allied with anyone; the only person he was entangled with was spawn, and we've already seen what kind of circular logic comes from pondering that connection.

Among this group I think The Saucepan Man, Aiwendil, and mormegil are as likely innocent as not (that's as strong an endorsement as I'm willing to give). I'm not sure about Eomer at all. And Farael and Boromir are looking quite suspicious to me.

So where does that leave me?

Off the hook for now:

Formendacil
Kath
The Saucepan Man
Aiwendil
mormegil

Not sure:

Celuien
Eomer

Suspicious:

Glirdan
Nilpaurion Felagund
Boromir88
Farael

++Boromir88

[mormegil]

One point I would like to add about tar-a is that Holby's vote came after Aiwnedil's. It seeming to me more like Holby may have dreamt of her. The reason I say this is that on day 1 it's not likely for an intelligent seer to come out strongly against a wolf if they dreamt of one. Holby did not come out strongly, rather she was mild and made her accusations sound more random. However I believe Hobly saw an opportunity to blend in with some votes and had hoped that the tar-a bandwagon would take off. Somehow the wolves knew she was the seer.

I hope that this makes sense because I'm not very articulate, unlike some here but it makes perfect sense in my mind.

[Aiwendil]

Mormegil wrote:
I hope that this makes sense because I'm not very articulate, unlike some here but it makes perfect sense in my mind.

It certainly makes some sense to me, though I'm still a bit hesitant to jump to the conclusion that Holbytlass definitely dreamt of Tar.

It increasingly seems to me that if Eomer is a wolf, then so is Tar, and vice versa. And if they're innocent, I would bet that Mormegil is a wolf.

So my idea as to what should be done is this. ToDAY, we should lynch either Tar or Eomer. If we get a wolf, then we lynch the other one tomorrow. If not, then I think we should lynch Mormegil tomorrow (though I admit I feel less confidence about that).

Which leaves the question - Eomer or Tar toDAY? Of course, if my theory is right, it shouldn't matter. But my theories certainly aren't always right. So it comes down to which one looks more like a wolf. And it seems to me that the only thing really pointing to Eomer is Spawn's death, whereas there's a fair body of evidence against Tar.

My idea, then, is to lynch Tar toDAY. If she's a wolf, lynch Eomer tomorrow. If not, possibly lynch Mormegil tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised if the wolvish triumvirate turns out to be Tar, Eomer, and Farael.

[mormegil]

I am confident that at least one is a wolf but it's very probable both are.

++Eomer

He's the trickiest and therefore the one we want to least let live.

[The Saucepan Man]

It increasingly seems to me that if Eomer is a wolf, then so is Tar, and vice versa. And if they're innocent, I would bet that Mormegil is a wolf.I can see the sense in this. However, I am reluctant to agree to committing to a specific course of action for tomorrow based solely on the outcome of today’s lynching, assuming that it follows the course that you have outlined (and also assuming that I am still here). There will be more evidence to consider tomorrow, such as today’s voting record and who the Wolves kill tonight.

So, for example, while I agree that, if either Eomer or tar-ancalime is lynched and turns out to be innocent, it looks bad for mormegil, it does not necessarily follow just from that that he is a Wolf.

Still, I too am likely to vote for either tar or Eomer today. There are reasonable grounds for suspecting either (and indeed both) to be a Wolf. The trouble is deciding which one to cast my vote for, and I must cast it soon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, now I have to vote.

Eomer or tar-ancalime? One is a Wolf, I am sure of it, and I think it quite possible that both are. But, it seems to me that this question over Eomer as a result of spawn's death is going to plague us until it is resolved. And he is certainly bold enough to kill spawn. So I will vote for:

++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

[Formendacil]

Hmm.... I am definitely seeing an Eomer/Tar-Ancalime questioning going on today. Both definitely have merited the suspicion. Of the two, Eomer seems the more likely wolf to me- but that could just be because I've played with him before (Nostalgic Note: He was my first Werewolf).

But let's see how the voting goes... I've still got a little time...

Now, as regards my fake Seer dreams.... I ain't gonna tell ya.

The main reason being that I don't see any logical reason at all to muddle up people's suspicions with completely random assignments of guilt and innocence. I may as well give you my own randomly chosen list...

Besides, since I knew for certain that I was the Fool, I haven't bothered dreaming. Being sick helped there, I'll grant, but I also didn't see any reasonable point.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Mormegil posted: "Eomer is making me uneasy and seems to be attempting to find somebody else to throw suspicion on deflecting it off himself."

WOW!!!!!!!!!

I'd rather stay alive! How very wolvish.

Anyway...

Three votes for me? Because Spawn is dead? So we lynch those who argued against the dead? Makes perfect sense. :rolleyes:

I'll say it again: The wolves have played this brilliantly. There has been a total lack of reasons given by all persons who voted for me. You all say 'He seems wolvish' or 'He seems tricksy'. Marvellous.

You're killing me because I'm an easy target. You might as well just say it.

[Boromir88]

I'm most likely going to vote for tar-ancalime today. She seems (to me) to be a more suspicious than Eomer.

Her vote for me seems like a throw away, perhaps she doesn't feel like voting for one of her furry buddies? But it just seems randomly out of the blue that I'm her suspect, and since no one thinks I'm a wolf it's a safe vote for her to make.

While Eomer makes a scary furry one, with morm's analysis and now her vote, tar-ancalime looks the most wolfish to me.

[Kath]

++tar-ancalime

As suspicious as this will make me look for another turnaround, I have little time today. Well no, I have little time until 10, and that is obviously too late.

I read through the posts though much of it was done by skim reading and of the arguments I read in detail morm's for tar-a was well thought out and, I feel, had some susbstance to it.

I will admit to having some fear of voting for Eomer, because it seems such an obvious set up. I know that he is bold enough to try it, but it feels too much like voting for an innocent.

I'm off now so SPM, have your field day with this if you like!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++TAR-ANCALIME

I know it looks desperate but I have to try and save myself. I've no idea if it will be enough.

[mormegil]

Eomer, are you at all suspicious of Tar-a? Or are you just voting for her to save yourself? I would think that if you are truly innocent and not gifted that you would have voted for somebody that you suspected even though it might mean your life. As it stands it appears that you don't care how you feel about Tar-a and are willing to kill her to save yourself and she is somebody that you didn't suspect. So trading one innocent life for another. However I don't think you or her are innocent. Now if you are gifted that is one thing but I would have thought that if you are gifted you would have declared yourself by now.

Speak quickly!

[Farael]

Well, the Eomer bandwagon is picking up speed and I don't want to join in to help the wolves that may join it get lost in the noise.

I have to come forward, although I believe I have done it before... I am not nearly as suspicious of Aiwendil as I say I do. There are some inconsistencies, he has defended Eomer today on premises I find flawed and I believe in SOME of the things I've said before, specially that he is not committing too much, and it's really safe. For those who acuse me of playing a 'safe' game by focusing only on one suspect, it is not so as you can see by your own suspicions... Sure, I think I have come up with the second best way to survive Day 1 (The first is being Nilp, which I'm looking forward to do next time around) but it's not a good idea for the long haul.

Now, with regards to my comment that if LMP was a wolf, then so was Aiwendil and if LMP was not a wolf then Aiwendil still was, I'm not sure I said EXACTLY that, but my train of thought was

"Well, Aiwendil has acused some people yet every time he says something about LMP is two or three degrees lower in 'acusation level' than what he says about others. He keeps on bringing LMP up but not putting anything firm against him. If LMP is a wolf, a wolf Aiwendil would be playing a safe game by not raising suspicions against LMP but saying things that in retrospective could be argued that he was."

"On the other hand, he is still playing very cautious. Even if LMP is not a wolf, I would not discard Aiwendil from my list of suspects... and I can't get off his back too much or else, as no-one else really suspects him, it'll be considered a flip-flop and I will get some heat for it." So I tried to mellow down my accusations while still staying consistent to what I have done before

Now I see it is not helping the village at all, and its not getting us any closer to lynch Aiwendil, so here, I explained myself.

Now, I still think Eomer is set between a rock and a hard place... I want to announce to 'the public' that I mean to vote for him. If I vote for anyone else (likely Aiwendil for concistency's sake) it's just because Eomer is already convicted and I want to get fewer names for the wolves to hide on. Of course you could think I am a wolf bailing out on what could be see as bandwaggoning... well, if you think so then lynch me and remember my words above after that.

Now that we have that cleared up, I'd say that right now my true suspect is Eomer (sorry buddy, but you really are in bad shape right now and while you could think that it's what the wolves want us to think, I fear that we might be over-analysing things). There's a bit of a case going on against tar-a but I'm not sure it's quite finished... Morm is actually making more sense than the other times I've seen him around... I'm inclined to trust him but then, it's hard to do so. Same with SPM... he makes sense and that is always scary. I never understood the case against Boromir and looks innocent to me, although I don't have MUCH to go on with.

Just re-reading some posts... did I really say that LMP's innocence IMPLICATED Aiwendil* as a wolf, or rather that it did not absolve him? I can't recall either thinking or 'saying' such thing. I was basing a good chunck of my suspicion of Aiwendil towards LMP's "guilt" but I still think he is being mildly useful but NEVER sticking his neck on the line and you have to agree that is a little odd. Sooner or later, we all find someone we think is wolfish enough as to go after him, Aiwendil has not

And a bone for you all to chew on. Should Eomer be innocent, we will see that the wolves are not above killing a villager to make another look suspicious. If so, why did I survive Night Two if Aiwendil is not a wolf? they'd most likely had gotten rid of two innocents with VERY little possibility of it backfiring on them.

*Edit: Changed a 'him' for Aiwendil... the way I had it, it looked as if I was still talking about LMP. My mistake.

[Aiwendil]

++Tar-Ancalime

As I said before, she looks more wolvish to me than does Eomer, though I suspect that both may be wolves.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:
Sooner or later, we all find someone we think is wolfish enough as to go after him, Aiwendil has not

I've "gone after": Tar (on DAY 1 and again toDAY), Garin (on DAYs 2 and 3), and LMP (on DAY 3, before he disappeared, I noted that I would probably vote for him).

I do find it a bit interesting that Farael uses the phrase "go after". Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but this sounds like a wolf's point of view to me. I don't "go after" people; I suspect them of being wolves. I increasingly get the feeling that the triumvirate is: Tar, Eomer, Farael.

[Boromir88]

This may make me look quilty, but honestly I don't care...earlier I said I found tar-ancalime more wolvish than Eomer (though both suspicious). But one thing Sauce said caught my attention:
But, it seems to me that this question over Eomer as a result of spawn's death is going to plague us until it is resolved.
Which I happen to agree with, if we don't solve this matter of wolves setting up Eomer, or Eomer a wolf today the same will be discussed until Eomer is lynched so:

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Formendacil]

++ Eomer of the Rohirrim



What? I need an explanation? I think most of the village is stating it quite well. The confusions caused by the Spawn/Eomer feud need to be sorted. Furthermore, Eomer's behaviour, while not conclusively Werewolfish, has struck me as suspect- it seems familiarly Eomer-as-a-Wolf-ish to me.

Oh, and one last reason: My first dream was about Eomer. Shelob said he's an Ordo.

I don't believe her.

[Boromir88]

Oh, and one last reason: My first dream was about Eomer. Shelob said he's an Ordo.
Statistically that would be the result you get. 3 wolves amongst 19 villagers...since it's random 16/19 (innocent) so the probability of it coming up innocent: approximatly 85%

[mormegil]

Farael wrote:


I've "gone after": Tar (on DAY 1 and again toDAY), Garin (on DAYs 2 and 3), and LMP (on DAY 3, before he disappeared, I noted that I would probably vote for him).

I do find it a bit interesting that Farael uses the phrase "go after". Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but this sounds like a wolf's point of view to me. I don't "go after" people; I suspect them of being wolves. I increasingly get the feeling that the triumvirate is: Tar, Eomer, Farael.

For what it's worth after his latest post I'm highly suspicious of him now too.

Eomer
Tar-A
Farael

Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them.

[Formendacil]

Statistically that would be the result you get. 3 wolves amongst 19 villagers...since it's random 16/19 (innocent) so the probability of it coming up innocent: approximatly 85%

Which is precisely why I place precisely no value in the dreams.

[Farael]

For what it's worth after his latest post I'm highly suspicious of him now too.

Eomer
Tar-A
Farael

Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them.

I don't mind, honest... just remember my words after the Eomer bandwagon is done... if he's innocent anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Mormegil, you speak of the gifteds like you know the intricate discussions they have had. Do you really know how finely balanced this is? Can you possibly understand?

Edge of a knife.

[Formendacil]

Mormegil, you speak of the gifteds like you know the intricate discussions they have had. Do you really know how finely balanced this is? Can you possibly understand?

Edge of a knife.

You speak either as a Gifted yourself, or as a Werewolf trying to befuddle us/pass on a hint to your buddies.

I wonder which one it could be...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let me put it this way, Form: If the other three all vote for Tar-Ancalime, it would be positively marvellous.

Though I am suspicious that they won't show up. Oh dear, I knew I shouldn't have relinquished control of the internet.

[Boromir88]

You speak either as a Gifted yourself, or as a Werewolf trying to befuddle us/pass on a hint to your buddies.

I wonder which one it could be...

I'm more inclined to believe he is a werewolf. If he's hinting he's a gifted why wouldn't he have come out with it earlier to avoid everyone from voting for him to reveal this hint? And why wouldn't he just say it? His attempted hint here is ment to make him look like a gifted, but it's not a move a gifted would do if he was in trouble all day, it's a move of a wolf stuck.

[Formendacil]

I'm more inclined to believe he is a werewolf. If he's hinting he's a gifted why wouldn't he have come out with it earlier to avoid everyone from voting for him to reveal this hint? And why wouldn't he just say it? His attempted hint here is ment to make him look like a gifted, but it's not a move a gifted would do if he was in trouble all day, it's a move of a wolf stuck.

Of course. I knew that...

We need a sarcastic smiley around here....

[Celuien]

Let me put it this way, Form: If the other three all vote for Tar-Ancalime, it would be positively marvellous.

Though I am suspicious that they won't show up. Oh dear, I knew I shouldn't have relinquished control of the internet.


I'm here.

I don't know if your earlier post was a hint you're gifted or a ploy. If you are gifted, it might be time to tell us. Otherwise, it looks like the last gambit of a trapped wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I am arrayed with special gifts.

[Celuien]

I'll keep clicking refresh until as close to the last minute as I can to look for a rely. Despite my earlier statement I wouldn't vote for Eomer, this last gifted-hinting is enough to change my mind. Unless there is a definite reply.

[Celuien]

I am arrayed with special gifts.

Okay, this is annoying me. If you're really gifted, that makes you a wolf target now just because you said you're arrayed with some sort of gift. But it's not enough to say that if you're trying to convince the village.

Please come out and say something 100% since you've definitely given yourself away to wolves now if you're innocent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Celuien, I am your Guardian. Vote for Tar-Ancalime.

[Celuien]

++TAR-A

To save Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hmm, a couple of minutes left. Should I continue to entertain? I am rather in the mood...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

But what elaborate ruses I have left you all with!

[Celuien]

But what elaborate ruses I have left you all with!

What???

[Celuien]

I guess the truth will come out shortly...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I want you all to know I enjoyed every minute of it.

My friends, we will win.

[Boromir88]

Celuien, it appears you've been duped, at least that's what I make of Eomer's fun at the end.

[Celuien]

Celuien, it appears you've been duped, at least that's what I make of Eomer's fun at the end.


It would appear so. But at least there's tomorrow.

[Shelob]

(Once again the village is approaching the close of another day of bickering and arguing about who killed who, finally though they come to a conclusion.)

Farael: We’ve found a wolf, may we burn him?
Mormegil: We’re not killing Aiwendil…not today anyway.
Boromir88: And we’re not going to burn anyone, that can get messy.
Eomer: As compared to just lynching them, here’s an idea why don’t we crush them under a pile of rocks, then they’ve got a ready-made cairn to mark their grave, I volunteer we give it a trial run on Tar.
Aiwendil: I’m not sure we need to go that far…
Nilp: Besides, only a fool would think you were innocent now, Eomer
Formendacil: Interesting choice of words that. As it happens, the Fool did find him innocent.
Celuien: Which still doesn’t help us.
Kath: But it still seems a little too perfect doesn’t it?
Saucepan Man: But an Eomer-wolf would try to make us think that.
Eomer: Or would I?

(Thunder crashes [sorry, couldn’t help it]. The villagers are decided, the Eomer-puzzle needs to be solved now rather than causing more problems later on. They gather round him, and begin to lead him towards the gallows.)

Eomer: (unreasonably with a note of laughter) Do you really think I am a wolf?
Nilp: Ay, that you are.
Eomer: (same, and so on for the rest) And what is a wolf?
Mormegil: Why, one that swears and lies.
Eomer: And be all traitors that do so?
Saucepan Man: Every one that does so is a traitor, and must be hanged.
Eomer: Who must hang them?
Boromir: The honest men. Why?
Eomer: Then the wolves are fools, for there are liars and swearers enow to beat the honest men and hang up them.

(Eomer, during that last line, begins to change. His hair grows longer as does his face. He teeth become long and pointed while his nails sharpen into claws. The villagers, startled by his transformation back off rapidly and chaotically until a mostly Transformed Eomer begins to approach the largest group of startled villagers. Suddenly…)

Fomendacil: Hey, Eomer, Catch!

(Eomer turns, but not fast enough. The silver dagger Formendacil threw catches him in the small of the back. After a few minutes of writhing and unholy shrieking the Lycan terror was no more)

Glirdan: That was fortunate.
Form: Best five gold coins I ever spent, given the circumstances.

(The villagers go their separate ways and return home, saddened but hopeful. With only two wolves now perhaps they’ll stand a better chance on the following days.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.

[Shelob]

(After another rainy night the villagers gather in the square. As expected they are short another member, however the realization of this fact takes somewhat longer than usual as the vast majority of their attention is taken up by trying to figure out the purpose behind the large pile of rocks which has overnight appeared)

Celuien: I wonder what those are for, I’ll guess the wolves put them there but why?
Glirdan: Perhaps they were hoping to go to a stoning?
Saucepan Man: Somehow that seems unlikely.
Formendacil: Well they must be there for a reason.
Kath: Form! You survived?
Formendacil: I’m as surprised as you, personally.
Farael: Well if the wolves didn’t kill you, who did they kill? Or were they foiled by someone?

(The villagers look around, a process which results in two important things. Firstly they realize that their magistrate, Boromir88, has not yet joined them. Secondly, that if the white and rather note-like piece of paper being held in place by the top stone of the pile is any indication, that he won’t be joining them.)

Aiwendil: Oh dear, this can’t be promising.
Mormegil: (who has grabbed the note. reading) “Great stones we lay upon his chest until he plead…”(trailing off as he reads the rest silently to himself)
Tar: Well, how did he die? Mormegil, Morm!

Mormegil: (startled from his reading) Sorry, I’m surprised they didn’t go find a printer for this, it’s all but as long as most books I’ve seen. To abridge it though, they say he gave them but two words. “More weight” he said and died.

Glirdan: (having looked further at the rock the note was under) Umm…the wolves must have run out of paper then, there’s something else carved on this rock.
Kath: And what does that say?
Glirdan: (reading) “We have murdered the ranger, therefore the ranger shall protect no more, Eaumor is safe neaumor.”
Nilp: That sounds familiar, wasn’t the note they left with Shelob a lot like that?
Farael: It was, apparently their beginning to run out of ideas.
Glirdan: At least their sense of humour hasn’t changed, “Neaumor”…how is that funny?

(But he’ll never know, for the villagers, ignoring Glirdan’s question, begin another DAY of trying to find the wolves.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5

DAY 5 begins, and I'm a little later than I hoped but I had to go find my copy of The Crucible...forgive me.

[mormegil]

Aiwendil, I don't have time to post the votings but it appears as though over the past two days your votes have been an attempt to save Eomer. Care to explain?

[Formendacil]

Well, it's looking rather dismal for those Kuruharans who are waiting for back-to-back Village Victories. Two Gifteds down on the Innocent Side, leaving a Hunter, a Fool, and Six Little Innocents opposing Two Werewolves- who have thus far done extremely well.

Well, yesterday there was a lot of mention of Tar-Ancalime and Farael being Eomer's accomplices. Do the proponents of that theory have more to add, now that Eomer has been definitively labelled a wolf?

[mormegil]

I did some reviewing of Aiwendil, the last few post of yesterday didn't sit right with me.

On DAY 3 he voted 12th for Garin thus equalizing the number of votes that Garin and Eomer had at 2. Nobody else had above 1. Also Eomer still hadn't voted. That's fairly suspicious but then DAY 4 Aiwendil is 7th for tar-a which was her 3rd vote, again this tied up the vote for Eomer. It also came right after Kath and Eomer. It appears that Aiwendil tried to disguise his vote and save Eomer. If tar-a isn't a wolf, which I'm not sure of I think Aiwendil might be. Regardless I think he's worth looking at.

One thing is that I believe we should focus heavily on those who didn't vote for Eomer. Specifically:

Tar-a
Kath
Aiwnedil
Celuien
Glirdan (no vote)

Those who did vote for Eomer are generally believe to be innocent

Formendacil (innocent)
Mormegil (innocent)[/B]SpM--3rd vote putting Eomer clearly in the lead
Nilp--started voting for Eomer.

Now out of those Nilp and SpM aren't fully innocent in my mind but I tend to believe in their innocence currently.

Formendacil, how much will you be able to be around toDAY? I think you are a key piece in our chance for victory. You can help be a voice of reason and trust.

[Aiwendil]

Aiwendil, I don't have time to post the votings but it appears as though over the past two days your votes have been an attempt to save Eomer. Care to explain?

I've given all the reasoning behind my votes. To recapitulate:

DAY 3: I didn't suspect Eomer at this point. My suspects were LMP and Garin. LMP disappeared; I voted for Garin.

DAY 4: I thought (as I still do) that both Eomer and Tar-ancalime were probably wolves. I wanted to lynch one of them - either one. So, which to vote for? Personally, I saw more evidence against Tar than I did against Eomer. So I voted for Tar.

I said yesterDAY that I thought it likely the wolvish trio could be Eomer, Tar, and Farael. I also said yesterDAY that if Eomer turned out to be a wolf, then I'd wager Tar is as well. So - I'll wager Tar is a wolf.

Farael remains my other top suspect. I'd still like to hear more from him on subjects other than me.

I must run. I'll be back soon, I hope, with further thoughts.

Oh, and I think Mormegil is quite right here:
Formendacil, how much will you be able to be around toDAY? I think you are a key piece in our chance for victory. You can help be a voice of reason and trust.

It would probably be good if Form could hang around as much as possible toDAY.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it's looking rather dismal for those Kuruharans who are waiting for back-to-back Village Victories. Well, I wouldn't be too downhearted. The Wolf:villager ratio will favour us for a few days yet and, cold though it may seem, our chances of finding the remaining Wolves increase as the village population dwindles.

Yesterday's voting record is as follows:

1. Nilpaurion for Eomer (Eomer-1)
2. Tar-ancalime for Boromir88 (Eomer-1; Boromir88-1)
3. Mormegil for Eomer (Eomer-2; Boromir88-1)
4. The Saucepan Man for Eomer of the Rohirrim (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1)
5. Kath for tar-ancalime (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-1)
6. Eomer of the Rohirrim for tar-ancalime (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-2)
7. Aiwendil for tar-ancalime (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-3)
8. Boromir88 for Eomer (Eomer-4; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-3)
9. Formendacil for Eomer (Eomer-5; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-3)
10. Celuien for tar-ancalime (Eomer-5; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-4)

Did not vote: Farael, Glirdan

How useful yesterday's votes are depends, to a degree, on whether tar-ancalime is a Wolf since, if she is, then, depending when (and if) he or she voted, the remaining Wolf may have had little to choose between the two main candidates for lynching. I still believe it quite possible that tar is a Wolf, but I am by no means certain of it. Her vote does look bad but it may well be that the Wolves killed Boro (and so struck lucky again) to make it look that way. And Eomer's plea to Celuien to vote for tar, following his false declaration as the Ranger, speaks in favour of both tar and Celuien.

Nilp and mormegil look pretty good to me for their early votes for Eomer. I am not discounting the possibility of a Wolf-on-Wolf vote there, but it looks unnecessarily risky to me.

I think that we can firmly conclude now that Formendacil is indeed an innocent Fool. :p ;) I agree that a solid contribution from him today would be most welcome.

It is difficult to draw much of a conclusion from the votes of Aiwendil and Kath without knowing whether tar is a Wolf. Aiwendil did say earlier in the day that he was more inclined to view Eomer as innocent than tar and I wonder whether a Wolf would have been so bold as to speak up for a fellow Wolf in such a precarious position as Eomer was. Kath's quietness continues to concern me. I'm sorry Kath, but you are giving us so little to go on, it is natural to suspect you. And, when I looked back over the past few days, I noticed that you have been around some of the time without actually saying very much.

Farael is still making me very nervous. He started off yesterday rather ambiguous about Eomer, having first noted that spawn's death made him look almost too suspicious. Later, he made a great play of saying that Eomer was his true suspect, but only after Eomer had already received three votes. He then failed to turn up to vote. I know that he has explained on the village notice board why he didn't vote but I still don't like it, as we have no way of knowing for sure which way he would have voted, had he been here.

As for Glirdan, well I know that he has good reason for his absence, But, again, it means that there is very little by which we can judge him.

[The Saucepan Man]

For what it's worth, morm, there is a similar pattern in Kath's votes on Days 3 and 4. On Day 3, she put Garin one vote ahead of Eomer. And on Day 4, she was the first to vote for tar, when Eomer was on three votes and with (potentially) seven votes to come.

And you left Farael out of your list of non-Eomer voters.

[mormegil]

For what it's worth, morm, there is a similar pattern in Kath's votes on Days 3 and 4. On Day 3, she put Garin one vote ahead of Eomer. And on Day 4, she was the first to vote for tar, when Eomer was on three votes and with (potentially) seven votes to come.

And you left Farael out of your list of non-Eomer voters.

Oops, I was in haste and must have forgotten.

I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters. I truly believe that all our wolves will be in that group. Also I believe that one by one they (the wolves) will kill the Eomer voters.

Where is everybody? It's too quiet for me.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:
And Eomer's plea to Celuien to vote for tar, following his false declaration as the Ranger, speaks in favour of both tar and Celuien.

You know, this is a good point. It doesn't seem particularly likely that Eomer would try to save himself by getting another wolf lynched. If Tar were a wolf, why would Eomer even bother with the whole Ranger impersonation?

Of course, it could be an elaborate ruse designed to get us to think exactly that. But somehow it doesn't strike me that way. If Eomer intended to try to divert out suspicion from Tar, why would he wait until the last minute like that?

This makes me think that I may have been wrong about Tar. Looks like I have some re-considering to do.

Mormegil wrote:
I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters. I truly believe that all our wolves will be in that group.

This makes sense to me, and I agree that detailed analyses are probably in order.

And now for the rather wild, far-fetched theory that's occurred to me: Suppose the wolves decided to sacrifice Eomer. Suppose they killed Spawn for this reason. Suppose one or more wolves then comes out with an all-out attack on Eomer and even votes for him.

Likely? Maybe not. Beyond the realm of possibility? Certainly not. But it is enough to prevent me from dropping all suspicion of the Eomer voters. Formendacil is a proven innocent. But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

[mormegil]

And now for the rather wild, far-fetched theory that's occurred to me: Suppose the wolves decided to sacrifice Eomer. Suppose they killed Spawn for this reason. Suppose one or more wolves then comes out with an all-out attack on Eomer and even votes for him.

Likely? Maybe not. Beyond the realm of possibility? Certainly not. But it is enough to prevent me from dropping all suspicion of the Eomer voters. Formendacil is a proven innocent. But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

I agree and that is why I haven't written off SpM and Nilp. However for the time being I will keep them off because I know that I am innocent and think it's not likely that they pulled this ruse. I believe that Eomer believed that he could pull it off and almost he did. I must toot my own horn here. I was the only one, I feel, that kept suspicion on him.

[Glirdan]

I'm just coming in to say hi and bye. I've been called off out of town again for a major competition and will not be back for three days. I'm sorry I could not be of more help to you all. :( I will try and be post up to my usual standards this weekend. Forgive me!!!

[Farael]

As I said in the notice board, it was an accident I did not vote. (I'm sorry friends and fiends but I meant to come back close to the deadline yet I got confused with my last WW game and missed it)

In one of my posts I said I meant to vote for Eomer but that I would not do so if a bandwagon was forming, just to avoid giving more 'room' for the wolves to hide in. I reckon that barring a majour breackthrough I will be lynched sooner or later and I want to avoid you guys wasting time looking at me. This will most likely all make me look even more suspicious, but maybe after I'm dead it will help. Or maybe I'll survive.

Now, while Aiwendil (again) sounds reasonable when he says others looked more suspicious than Eomer and thus he voted for others, what about his weak defense of the wolf?

But the thing that really has me leaning toward Eomer's innocence is actually the same thing that caused Spawn to suspect him. We all know that Eomer would be a bold wolf - so bold that there's a real possibility that he would, indeed, have killed Spawn. But if he's such a bold wolf, why would he more or less "play it safe" in terms of accusations? It strikes me that if Eomer were a wolf, he wouldn't be afraid to take a risk and accuse someone. His "playing it safe" - i.e., perhaps, playing it rationally - looks more like something he'd do if innocent.

Now, I might just be reading too much into his post again, but this time I'm being totally serious with my accusation. Aiwendil thinks that an innocent will look very rational and careful in his accusations, as Eomer was acting. Even if the wolves did not agree to do so, Aiwendil thinks that it's the way an innocent will act. Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

Post 372: thinks that if Eomer is a wolf, so will Tar... therefore voting for either of them will not make a difference (so far so good, that's somewhat consistent with what he said before). He offers that if either of them are wolves then we should lynch the other today. He then says that Morm might be the other wolf. And thus, he says that if we don't lynch Eomer and Tar in quick succession, we should go after Morm. Yet (and this is where I cringe) he closes his post saying that maybe the wolves area Eomer, Tar and me.

Now, maybe I just got to him and he wants me dead but.... he mentioned nothing about me in the whole post, he talked about Morm instead!! And yet, he does not mention him for his 'triumvirate of wolves"

Now, let's see...

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime

Let's take out myself because I know I'm innocent along the other two that Eomer accused yesterDay as he knew he was going to die and was probably going against the easier targets hoping for a lucky break. I've been under a bit of heat lately and both Celuien and Nilp have been pretty absent, which is never a good thing for an innocent villager to be. We also take out Formen, for obvious reasons. I'm willing to let Morm and SPM off the hook for now, given that they gave Eomer his second and third votes early on the day, which put him up front as the most likely lynchee. Glirdan has been having RL issues and I believe him. If he had an important role, I would like to venture that he'd be here more often. Eomer voted for Tar-Ancalime and it seemed he might have gotten away with it. Iit does not sound like a wolf trying to save a friend by making him look innocent, but rather a wolf trying to save his furry skin, so I will get Tar-a out of the equation. FInally, Kath and Aiwendil voted for Tar before Celuien got tricked into doing so, therefore we get

Aiwendil
Kath

Now, they are not the 'ideal' suspects.... Aiwendil has managed to look mostly innocent, perhaps even because of my attacks and Kath has been a non-factor... while I'd be willing to sympathise with Kath, I remember a story my Grandma told me about a wolf called Malkatoj who used that tactic to put a blindfold over the village's eyes. And it worked.

I say we rid ourselves of Aiwendil first, at least then I won't be a distraction anymore, both because I will no longer have him to go after, and also because I will most likely be lynched the day after if he turns out to be innocent =P

But seriously, those two either explain why they were playing into Eomer's hand or I say we use the rocks on them!

Edit: Cross-posted with many people.

[The Saucepan Man]

Where is everybody? It's too quiet for me.
I am still here as my dignitarial duties (ie work) may keep me from being here tomorrow as much as I would like.

Of course, it could be an elaborate ruse designed to get us to think exactly that. But somehow it doesn't strike me that way. If Eomer intended to try to divert out suspicion from Tar, why would he wait until the last minute like that?I have been doing some further thinking about that interplay between Celuien and Eomer at the sharp end of yesterday. It may well have been genuine on both their parts (although genuine is perhaps not the right word for Eomer's part in it). But an Eomer-Wolf is a tricksy beast, so it's quite possible that there is more to it than that. One possibility is that they were both play acting, in an effort to establish the seeming innocence of a Wolfish Celuien. However, that would have required a degree of co-ordination on both their parts which I think would probably have been difficult for them to achieve at that time. The other possibility is the one that you have suggested, Aiwendil. That Eomer, concluding that his number was most likely up, acted the way that he did to disassociate himself from a Wolfish tar-ancalime, with the aim of giving her a better chance of surviving today. Possibly, he waited until the last minute because he thought that the votes could save him yet, without need to resort to such a desperate ploy. Or perhaps I am just reading too much into it. :rolleyes:

But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.I am not a Wolf. Of course, I don't expect you to take my word for it, so you will have to make up your own mind. It's possible that either Nilp or morm (or possibly both) are, and that they decided to sacrifice Eomer. But I think it unlikely that they would have voted for him so early, without seeing if there was a chance he might be spared the noose. And morm makes a fair point. It was him who really kept the spotlight on Eomer. If morm is a Wolf, it would have to have been a wholly premeditated sacrifice. Still, I wouldn't put it past him.

I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters.Well, for my part, I thought it worth taking a closer look at Farael's contributions yesterday.

He was the first to arrive, following the discovery of spawn's body, and immediately raised the question of whether it might be a set up.

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think?I am sure that the point will have occured to most if not all of us, but that seems a pretty strong way of putting it.

After suspicions of Eomer are voiced by most of those present and morm questions whether he is prepared to write off Eomer as innocent, he replies:

No, I think it's either a very bold move or a very smart one.Which looks to me rather like he is trying to hedge his bets. He then attempts to tie Eomer in with his long-standing case against Aiwendil, although I don't really follow what he is trying to say here. Immediately after that (#343), he defends his plan to lynch littlemanpoet by essentially saying that, had lmp been a Wolf, it would strongly have implicated Aiwendil but that, lmp's innocence notwithstanding, he still suspected Aiwendil. He says much the same thing in #347. I really don't get the reasoning behind this at all.

In #352, he claims that he has been voicing suspicions of Eomer, although it looks to me more like he was trying to play it safe and see how the village's opinion of Eomer developed. Not surprisingly, he seizes upon Aiwendil's thoughts on Eomer as a further basis upon which to accuse Aiwendil. Aiwendil had wondered whether a Wolfish Eomer bold enough to have killed spawn would have played it so safe in terms of accusation. Although we now know that Eomer is a Wolf, that seemed to me a reasonable point at the time. Farael makes the point that it is in the nature of a Wolf to be appear one way yet act another. Again, a reasonable point, although I hardly think that Aiwendil's comments implicate him to quite the degree that Farael makes out. Still, Farael has been single-minded in his pursuit of Aiwendil since Day 1.

But what I find most interesting is his post #382. By this stage, Eomer was on three votes and Boro on one. He starts off by saying that he doesn't want to join the Eomer bandwaggon. Then he says (quite bizarrely, in my view) that he is not nearly so suspicious of Aiwendil as he has made out and goes on to explain further his reasoning behind the lmp/Aiwendil thing. I still don't understand it. But it is what he says next that I find most curious:

Now, I still think Eomer is set between a rock and a hard place... I want to announce to 'the public' that I mean to vote for him. If I vote for anyone else (likely Aiwendil for concistency's sake) it's just because Eomer is already convicted and I want to get fewer names for the wolves to hide on. Of course you could think I am a wolf bailing out on what could be see as bandwaggoning... well, if you think so then lynch me and remember my words above after that.

Now that we have that cleared up, I'd say that right now my true suspect is Eomer (sorry buddy, but you really are in bad shape right now and while you could think that it's what the wolves want us to think, I fear that we might be over-analysing things). So, now that Eomer is looking a prime candidate for lynching, Farael names him as his "true suspect". He signals that he is going to vote for Eomer, but says that he might vote for someone else if Eomer is already condemned "to get fewer names for the Wolves to hide on". I don't get that at all. If Eomer was already condemned, then a vote for another villager would surely only help the other Wolves to hide. It looks to me like Farael was trying to make himself look good in case Eomer was lynched and found to be a Wolf, yet at the same time preemptively giving himself some cover in case he decided that his vote might look better if it was placed elsewhere. If Eomer was your "true suspect", Farael, why didn't you vote for him here? Instead, you failed to turn up to vote at all. I accept your reason for that, but it doesn't explain why you did not vote earlier. Did you in fact think that your vote might be needed to save Eomer?

As far as I can see, the only thing that speaks in Farael's favour is that Eomer attacked him on a number of occasions, most notably on Day 2 (#178), but also subsequently I think. However, Farael has so far never been under serious suspicion and has received only one vote to date (a "random" vote from Nilp on Day 1). So it is quite possible that these were "safe" accusations by Eomer, designed to put some distance between them in the event that one of them was lynched.

Would a Wolfish Farael have acted the way he has, with his single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil, his plan to lynch lmp, his (to put it kindly) rather difficult to follow reasoning, and his (to my mind) rather bizarre behavior yesterday? Quite possibly in my view. It has succeeded in sparing him from much suspicion so far, precisely because it looks too bold for a Wolf. And, in some cases, it has only served to confuse and, in the case of the "lynch lmp" plan, help divert the village down the wrong path.

In any event, having taken a much closer look at him, his behaviour looks distinctly Wolfish to me.

I hope to get a chance to look more closely at some of the other non-Eomer voters too, although they may have to wait until tomorrow, assuming that my duties allow me.

[The Saucepan Man]

I reckon that barring a majour breackthrough I will be lynched sooner or later and I want to avoid you guys wasting time looking at me. This will most likely all make me look even more suspicious, but maybe after I'm dead it will help. I wonder why you want to avoid us "wasting our time" looking at you? And yes, you are looking even more suspicious. To me at least.

Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?In my limited ancestral ( ;) ) experience, yes it is his usual style. That said, I would expect a Wolfish Aiwendil to play in his "usual" style. I haven't discounted Aiwendil as a possible Wolf, but I don't think it likely that the two of you are Wolves (all credit to you if you are :rolleyes: ) and, right now, you are looking a lot more suspicious to me than him.

Glirdan has been having RL issues and I believe him. If he had an important role, I would like to venture that he'd be here more often.I am concerned that may be a dangerous assumption to make. Still, if he is a Wolf, and ends up beng the last one alive, it is quite possible that his absence from much of our debate will lead him to slip up.

[Aiwendil]

Mormegil wrote:
I must toot my own horn here. I was the only one, I feel, that kept suspicion on him.

Yes, and for what it's worth, I give you credit for that. Nonetheless, I don't know that you're innocent. And a bold, completely pre-meditated sacrifice is just the sort of thing I could see you and Eomer pulling off together.

If I had to guess, I'd say Morm's innocent. But I can't put the thought of some elaborate ruse out of my mind. Maybe it's just that the mere thought of a wolvish trio that included both Eomer and Morm sends shivers down my spine . . .

Farael wrote:
Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

I think that Mormegil and Saucepan may have heard a few stories about an ancestor of mine, and I'm sure they'll both confirm that he was careful and rational.

Yet (and this is where I cringe) he closes his post saying that maybe the wolves area Eomer, Tar and me.

Now, maybe I just got to him and he wants me dead but.... he mentioned nothing about me in the whole post, he talked about Morm instead!! And yet, he does not mention him for his 'triumvirate of wolves"

Since the logic behind my argument there was more complex than a simple "X is a wolf!" I don't expect you to be interested in it. But, for what it's worth, what I said was that if Eomer turned out to be innocent, I would suspect Morm. But I didn't think that Eomer was innocent, so I didn't think that Morm was a wolf.

SPM wrote:
That Eomer, concluding that his number was most likely up, acted the way that he did to disassociate himself from a Wolfish tar-ancalime, with the aim of giving her a better chance of surviving today. Possibly, he waited until the last minute because he thought that the votes could save him yet, without need to resort to such a desperate ploy.

But if Tar were also a wolf, then it seems to me that Eomer wouldn't be particularly interested in saving himself by having her lynched. In other words, if they're both wolves, then they would have known that one of them was doomed no matter what.

Then he says (quite bizarrely, in my view) that he is not nearly so suspicious of Aiwendil as he has made out

I found this strange as well. Wasn't it Farael himself who said that wolves would "appear one way and act another"?

I hope to get a chance at some point to analyse the posts of some of those who did not vote for Eomer, but I have some business away from the village to attend to. Nonetheless, I think I will get some time for it about five or six hours before NIGHTfall.

Edit: crossed with SPM's second post

[Celuien]

...most of the following written before the opening of this DAY...

Hurray! We've taken out a wolf! Thank you to everyone whose eyes were clearer than my own yesterday. I had the ++EOMER vote written with the tagline "for Gifted-impersonation" based on the evasive hints he was trying to distract the village with. And was ready to submit it until the false-Guardian declaration. With no time to discuss the issue, I panicked over the possibility of lynching a Gifted and switched to Tar-A. Fortunately, enough of you were more insightful and had already voted for the tricksy villian that my error didn't make a difference.

I'm pretty sure the following are innocent based on record against Wereomer:
Morm
Nilp - first to vote Eomer.
SPM

Tar-a is most likely innocent since Wereomer tried so hard to use her as the diversion to save his furry neck.

And if I dare say it, I think the last minute business between Eomer and myself yesterday exonerates me. As a wolf, I would never have made such a visible move when it was likely that he would be revealed as lupine. I only voted the way I did on the chance that the last 'I am your Guardian' statement was true.

Now, in light of Eomer's guilt, who is looking the furriest today? In no particular order:

1. Aiwendil, who led off the shift toward tar-a.

Now, I don't want to follow Farael's specious reasoning about lynching someone for "information", but I do think that if tar turns out to be a wolf, then Eomer is probably a wolf too. That vote for Eomer on DAY 1, passed off as a random vote with no evidence, looks very much like a wolvish trick to me. And, much as I hate to mention "past lives", I've, uh . . . heard that an ancestor of Form did much the same thing to an ancestor of Spawn in a village my great-great-grandfolks lived in.

On the other hand, if tar and/or Eomer are innocent, I will certainly be taking a closer look at Mormegil.

Sets tar-a's guilt as a condition for Eomer's guilt. I think she's probably innocent. If we had lynched her yesterday and then followed this line of reasoning, Eomer would have been off the hook. At the same time, Aiwendil has been logical. He could be another tricksy wolf, but he could also be trying to reason things carefully and be afraid of makng dramatic statements as a result.

...here begins new material. By bad luck, my schedule for overnight shifts happens to conincide with DAYs here. So I'm still at work and so don't have much time to continue analysis right now. Have to be brief, but will expand after I get off tomorrow...

2. Farael - he's confusing me. Major points against him already outlined.

3. Kath - again, already pointed out as another early tar-a voter.

[Farael]

Alright, let's get this over with, I said I don't want to distract the village and I'm obviously doing so. Maybe tomorrow won't be like that. I tell you, I am innocent and I have given Aiwendil the perfect cover... that's ok, it's a learning experience but I see that I am detracting too much from you guys looking at the guilty ones.

I will probably not be around after tonight (real time) before the deadline and given that any fingers I point will only make that person look innocent I Say

++Farael

I know this will get me lynched and THAT is the idea. My goal is not to survive until the end, but to help the villagers win... and have fun. So far, it's been a fun ride... that was the point of my bonehead attack on Aiwendil, just having fun until I had something firmer to go on... and hopefully I would get on a wolve's nerves and have him(or her) make a mistake. Sadly, now it seems that whoever I accuse will either make him look innocent or me look even more guilty for straying from Aiwendil.

Since the logic behind my argument there was more complex than a simple "X is a wolf!" I don't expect you to be interested in it.
You seem quite upset there buddy... sorry if I got in your nerves too much, I was just having fun... this is a game and I felt I was taking it far too seriously so I just let loose and crazy a little. If I bothered for real in any way, I do apologise, I never meant to have fun by ruining the game for you. (and this comment is completely 'offtopic'... I would PM you about it but I can't because we are still alive so I write it here)

Yet, I still do honestly think that there are some 'issues' with him:

-See defense of Eomer, and the fact that both him and Kath voted for someone other than Eomer two nights in a rowh, both times when Eomer was one of the principal suspects.
-He is definetly playing a safe game and it seems it is his usual MO, yet he has never really voiced out suspicions... heck, if he were innocent, why is he not REALLY going after my neck? I must look like THE wolf to him after four days of being on his trail... and if I'm not mistaken, our ancestors have lived together in a wolf-infected village, so it's not quite like has any reasons to think that I'm always that limited in my pursuit of a suspect.

Now, I'm being honest whether you like it or not... I know that unless I change my style GREATLY I will be lynched sooner or later, and so I rather be lynched sooner because I would not want my death to give the wolves a greater advantage than what it would do right now. There is still some 'breathing space' and so if we are going to lynch an innocent, it better be tonight.

I thought I'd be able to slowly step backfrom my insane pursuit of Aiwendil without looking suspicious, but it seems that it only made me more suspicious as others think that I was going with the mob.

Yet I tell you, I AM innocent and if you are going to suspect me, lynch me today. If not, take my word for it.

Edit: I added the "before the deadline" when it says that I won't be around after tonight

[The Saucepan Man]

But if Tar were also a wolf, then it seems to me that Eomer wouldn't be particularly interested in saving himself by having her lynched. In other words, if they're both wolves, then they would have known that one of them was doomed no matter what.You misunderstand me. I was speculating that Eomer had resolved himself to his fate and thought that, by encouraging Celuien to vote for tar, it would make a Wolfish tar look better today. At that point, it looked almost certain that he would be lynched no matter what. Eomer was on five votes and tar on three. All three remaining votes would have had to have gone to tar for her to be lynched in Eomer's place and, given the timing, it looked unlikely that Farael and Glirdan would appear.

Rather elaborate, I know. And it assumes that neither Farael nor Glirdan are Wolves. I am inclined to the view that Farael is a more likely Wolf than tar-ancalime, but I will try to take a closer look at tar tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

Cross-posted with Farael's suicide vote, the possible implications of which I will have to consider further tomorrow, as now I must go.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: No, you have neither bothered me nor offended me nor ruined the game for me. You have, I admit, bewildered me. But I don't mind being bewildered now and then.

Nonetheless, I don't see how your self-vote is helpful. We want to lynch wolves. If you're innocent, lynching you won't help.

[Farael]

Nonetheless, I don't see how your self-vote is helpful. We want to lynch wolves. If you're innocent, lynching you won't help.

Well, I won't have time to go through any information after this post until after the deadline so I can't really vote for anyone else and expect it to be worthwile... and I'm not sure I can help the village unless I convince everyone of my innocence. There is only one way to do that and is to stop playing games and put everyone to the task of either believing me (and thus not voting for me) or not and lynch me... then they'll see I'm innocent, but I'll be dead. Still, if I'm lynched it means that enough people think me guilty to make my best efforts futile. They won't trust them until it's possibly too late.

There are many possible ways in which either my life or my death might help us find a wolf... but I won't get into them for the obvious reasons (namely, just to make sure I don't help the wolves see a way they could mess up)

[mormegil]

An interesting case against Tar-Ancalime you have there, Mormegil. I'd make this point though: You say that she killed Holby and then Anguirel because they disagreed with her. Wouldn't the other two wolves put the brakes on this? Unless, of course, the other two wolves were subject to absolutely no suspicion on Day One and Two. Or they could be taking her for a ride (or she they).

Anyway Mormegil, the reason I didn't give my suspect list last night was because I knew it would probably change the next day! So here I am, and soon I will give a list of my suspects.

Why does Nilp 'feel stupid' immediately after voting for me?

Eomer defends tar-a to an extent here, yet subsequently votes for her and he did so at a time when innocent Boromir had 1 vote and unknown Tar-A had 1 vote. This was early on in the day so I was thinking that Eomer didn't think his bandwagon was going to be picking up much speed and thought he could also save tar-a. I'm not sure what to make of this altogether but I want to add an additional Eomer quote.

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

My guess is that Eomer likely included one wolf in that mix. I would be most inclined to think Farael then Celuein.

Tar-a also included Farael on her top 4 suspects list but voted Boromir. I've been milling this question over in my mind: Why would tar-a vote Boromir when she did? I know it was late for her but what could/does it mean. Was she the leading wolf hoping to get a bandwagon rolling for Boromir? Or was she an innocent who sincerely believed that Boromir was guilty. I still have no idea why people ever suspected him as there was nothing in his behavior that ever made me think him a wolf, the same is true with SpM but I am leary of fully trusting him.

There's something else about tar-a that doesn't sit right but I can't pinpoint it right now but I'll keep thinking about it and I may have an answer.

The more I hear from Aiwendil the more I find myself trusting him.

[mormegil]

Double post yes, but different topics.

I’ve been meaning to look a little bit at this and analyze how everybody responded to Spawn’s death.

Farael , as SpM pointed out, stated:

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think? We have a smart pack of werewolves in our midst, maybe it's time I change strategy... although I'd much rather see Aiwendil lynched before I do.


Mormegil was never convinced of Eomer’s innocence and stated so.

Eomer claims the wolves are brilliant and gives an elaborate speech as to why the wolves would do this.

Celuien stated:

Spawn's death looks like a delibrate framing of Eomer after their sparring for the past couple of days. It's not really something I would expect a wolf Eomer to do since it does automatically make him look really, really bad.

But I'm not going to discount him from consideration. It is entirely possible that a Wereomer would have killed Spawn because it is too obvious, expecting to be discounted from debate as a result.

Boromir talks a bit about both sides and ends up leaning towards the set up theory

SpM states:

Well, dancing spawn's death certainly puts Eomer squarely in the frame. Question is, is it a set up or does a Wolfish Eomer count on us thinking that it is? The interesting thing is that dancing spawn and Eomer both made fair points against each other, based on similar reasoning. Their argument, essentially, was that the other had been raising a lot of suspicions but not making many strong accusations. While the fact that Eomer was wrong about her does not negate spawn's case against him, it does suggest that such cases can be fallible. We need to consider what other evidence there may be to suggest that Eomer is a Wolf.

In my opinion this seems very unwolfish. SpM is considering all options and attempting to view is Eomer is guilty.

Formendacil is a bit ambiguous about the point and doesn’t come to a real conclusion but this is moot as he is innocent

Tar-a ignores the issue completely and actually changes the subject. Hmmmm???

Farael defends Eomer’s position and states that the wolves didn’t’ set up Aiwendil by killing me (Farael) why would they set up Eomer.

Aiwendil, to his credit seems reasonable and open to both ideas initially.

Well, that's the little drama that went on in my head a few minutes ago when I saw that Spawn had been killed. Obviously, we're all familiar with the whole frame-up/double bluff/triple bluff/etc. craziness that's going on here. So what's the point of my little play? Well, it's this. It seems to me that to try to disentangle the psychology of last NIGHT's kill is futile. Either Eomer did it or he's being framed. But beyond that, who can say? Either possibility seems equally plausible to me.

Nilp never officially weighed in on the topic but did vote first for Eomer after some slight debate of the issue.

This makes tar-a and Farael look bad. Also Celuien also but not so bad as the other two.

[Formendacil]

Hello all,

Sorry about the lack of being around for the past several hours, but working eight hour shifts will put a crimp in your Werewolfing for sure.

Alas, but by unusually bad luck (for my work life, anyway), it is now 1:00 in the morning, my time, so after this post I'll probably be off to bed. And, as soon as I wake, I'm slated to return to work for an eight-hour day shift. There's a bright ray of Werewolfish hope from noonish until 1:30, so I'll be able to make a reappearance ere the day ends, and cast a vote before the cutoff, but I cannot act as a safeguard against Wolfish anti-plan votes, alas.

Having noted that, I want to say that I don't think Farael is guilty, although the simple fact of his suicide vote points me towards thinking that more than anything else he has done.

However, I don't agree with Farael that death is the best thing for him to do if he is unable to be around a lot from now on. I don't think that many of us really think him guilty. There are a lot more suspicious characters to deal with.... So Farael's vote, though irrevocably cast, ought to be ignored by the rest of us in seeking out the Wolves. I don't think killing Farael will help us any.

Normally, at this point in the game, if Morm and SPM are both alive, they tend to go for each other's throats. That hasn't happened this time, and for some reason I'm fairly sure of them both being innocents. Their votes yesterday for Eomer undoubtedly help in that matter, but the fact that both are playing on par, completely normally is a bit more decisive for me.

I don't put any stock in Nilp's acrostic hints. After the last game, he'd be a fool not to give SPM a hint like that, whatever his role. However, I DO think him Innocent, for now, anyway, although not for reason of the acrostic.

So, to recap, I agree with Morm's suggestion that scrutiny today should be focussed most on the non-Eomer voters of yesterday, leaving Morm, SPM, Nilp, and myself off the list. I'd also like to take Farael off the list, at least for today. He seems to be playing perfectly normally...

And... hmm... I'm out of things to talk about. If more occurs to me, I'll post again ere bedtime. If not... farewell for several hours.

[Formendacil]

Five minutes of thought has done nothing but make me reconsider the Farael issue. On the face of it, I'm still inclined to think him innocent (although if he is innocent, then Tar-Ancalime seems especially guilty), but I think he should go back on the scrutiny list.

So, if there's anyone foolish enough in this village to be the fool who follows a Fool, I'm saying go back to muttering about Farael. :p

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(To Aimè) Hail and well met, foul broodling of Sauron! This is Nilpaurion, son of Felagund avenged!

SpM and morm, I trust you both now. morm especially, since he voted for Eomer DAY 3.

It was Boro I was originally worried about, because his vote may have been to save a lupine tar. But since he has been killed and proven innocent . . . well, I'm still suspicious of tar.

Glirdan, too. There's something about him that strikes me as furry.

More thoughts later.

[mormegil]

I would simply like to point out that it has been about 16 hours and we still haven't heard from two of our chief suspects, tar-a and Kath. I don't like it one bit! It makes me nervous and more suspicious of them.

[The Saucepan Man]

So, if there's anyone foolish enough in this village to be the fool who follows a Fool, I'm saying go back to muttering about Farael.I will follow the Fool. ;)

On reflection, Farael’s plea and vote for himself makes little difference to my opinion of him. He does come across as genuine, but that is exactly how I would expect a Wolf to come across when making this kind of a play. What I find strange is that Farael has been under virtually no suspicion so far. Yet the moment that a strong case is made against him, he immediately throws up his hands, claims he is innocent but that his cause is hopeless and votes for himself. It all looks rather contrived to me, and I suspect that he has done it to try to head off any further suspicion that might come his way. It also, rather conveniently, enables him to hide his vote.

The only thing that makes me slightly cautious is that I felt much the same way about littlemanpoet, when he voted for himself. But I think that the case for Farael being a Wolf is much stronger.

However, I agree with those who have suggested looking more closely at all of the non-Eomer voters. That does not mean that the others are “off the hook” as far as I am concerned. But I think that there is almost certainly one Wolf, and most likely two, among those who did not vote for Eomer yesterday.

I will start with tar-ancalime, as I find her the next most suspicious-looking, after Farael. In reviewing her contributions, I have focussed on those things that stood out to me, one way or the other. Some of these points have already made, but I have tried to draw it all together.

Day 1

Her early posts mainly concerned the Seers (#22, #35, #36, #44). Although she suggested a moratorium on Seer talk, which I agreed with at the time, her contributions did rather serve to encourage it. Possibly a subtle way of diverting discussion away from finding Wolves, but nothing too suspicious.

She criticised spawn for her analysis post, which had apparently rubbed her up the wrong way, and indicated that she was likely to vote for spawn (#44). I am not sure why she responded quite so strongly to spawn’s post, but what is stranger (and looked strange to me at the time) is that, in response to no more than a brief explanation from spawn of the reason for her analysis (#46), she effectively took back what she had said, trying to explain it away by saying that she had been “gathering her thoughts”. If she was indeed gathering her thoughts, then she did so in very strong terms. Instead, she voted “randomly” for Eomer (#50). Increasingly, that looks to me like an early Wolf-on-Wolf vote, made at a time when Eomer was in no real danger. She has not voted for him since.

Eomer’s reaction to her vote is interesting, particularly the winking smilie:

Tar-ancalime, my worthy healed child, what has this Priest (who prayed for you every day) ever done to deserve such a vote? ;) It may be nothing, but it struck me as the kind of response a Wolf might give to a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Then there is Holby’s vote to consider. As I see it, there are two possible explanations for Holby’s death. Either the Wolves simply struck lucky on Night 2, as we thought at the time, or tar is a wolf and interpreted Holby’s vote as indicating that she was the Seer. As far as I can see, nothing else that Holby said could possibly have identified her as the Seer. It occurs to me that, if Eomer and tar were Wolves together, then perhaps they thought from the fact that tar "got away" with killing Holby, that Eomer could get away with killing spawn.

Day 2

Tar's suggestion that her defence of Boro might be viewed as an “evil alliance” (#124) strikes me as curious. Why say that? To possibly implicate Boro if she was lynched?

Rather defensive in response to the charge of “flip-flopping” ( #161), and this does appear to have succeeded in diverting attention away from her at that time.

Day 3

Tar disagreed with Farael’s plan to vote for lmp to gain information on Aiwendil, but then put forward the idea of voting for those who were generating confusion, impliedly (to my mind) nodding towards lmp (#247). When she voted for lmp, she said that, since he seemed to have given up hunting Wolves, he was no longer useful (#285). I think that the Wolves had identified lmp as a likely lynch candidate for Day 3 and, given the circumstances at the time, her vote here looks rather opportunistic to me. She refused to cast her vote elsewhere when lmp disappeared (#289), although (if innocent) she would surely have had other suspicions.

Day 4

As suspicion gathered around Eomer, tar commented that the discussions had been much too single-minded so far (#340). A possible attempt to move the discussion away from Eomer? She also speculated that the three Wolves might all be “quiet ones”. Well, we know that one of them wasn’t.

Defensive in response to morm’s strong case against her (#357), although her comments here could be taken either way.

Eomer mildly defended her (#362), although he went on to vote for her (#380). I am not at all sure, however, that it follows from his vote that tar is innocent as, if she had been lynched and turned out to be a Wolf, it would have stood to Eomer’s credit.

She said that Eomer was playing his own game and was not allied to anyone (#370). Clearly, she was wrong about that, although it might have been an oblique attempt to defend him without looking too suspicious if he was lynched. Voted for Boro, which looks both good and bad for her, in light of his death the following night.

Eomer’s attempt to persuade Celuien to vote for tar by claiming to be the Ranger seemingly speaks in tar’s favour. But, as I have said, it could have been an elaborate ploy on Eomer's part to make her look better today, given that the chance of her being lynched in his place was, by that stage, minimal.

All in all, she still looks very suspicious to me.

Kath next …

[The Saucepan Man]

I am beginning to become rather gloomy about our prospects of finding these Wolves after all, with so few people speaking. :rolleyes:

Still, here my thoughts on Kath from a review of her posts.

Day 1

Kath’s only real contribution was to vote for Gil-Galad (#88). Quite possibly, the Wolves decided that they would try to get Gil lynched on Day 1 as he was an easy target and likely to attract a fair few votes (enabling the Wolves to hide amongst them). I suspect that one, and possibly (though less likely) two, Wolves may therefore have voted for Gil. That would implicate Glirdan and Celuien too (and also morm, although I am feeling relatively comfortable about him right now).

Day 2

On Day 2, she was (as far as I can tell) present in the village for about 20 minutes (#209, #211, #217) but, having given a brief outline of Lhuna’s posts, declined to vote or, indeed, to say very much at all about the way she was thinking.

Day 3

Kath said that she had some time to spend in the village on Day 3 (#226), and it seems that she was around for quite some time early on in the Day (see also #236), but she offered no firm opinions at that time. It was only when other villagers started questioning her quietness that (towards the end of the Day) she offered up her long posts going through Days 1 and 2 villager by villager (#292, #322). As I have said previously, I regard these posts are rather unhelpful and they look to me designed to say a lot without offering much in the way of substance. Notably, she offered no opinion on Eomer, but voted for Garin to put him one ahead of Eomer in the voting (#322).

After I voted for her, referring to her quietness and her (to my mind) unhelpful summary, she got rather defensive about it (#307, #309, #314), although the second two of these posts were in response to some questioning from Eomer. Unless the exchange with Eomer was intended to distance them, that does speak in her favour.

Day 4

Her vote for tar-ancalime might be regarded as suspicious (#379), although that depends to a degree on whether tar is a Wolf. Nevertheless, she gave little reasoning of her own for it, relying mainly instead on morm’s strong case against tar. A Wolf piggy-backing on the reasoning of an innocent?

As has been said many times, not a great deal to go on. But, in my view, she certainly remains one of the more suspicious villagers.

I shall take a look at Aiwendil next.

[tar-ancalime]

I apologize for my absence.

I'm not a wolf. Holby didn't dream of me. I didn't know she was the Seer. I really wish she hadn't voted for me on Day 1.

I still think there is at least one "quiet" wolf from my list yesterday.

++Glirdan

[mormegil]

tar-a do you care to explain your vote for Glirdan? Is it just because he's quiet?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If Eomer was looking to latch on a bandwaggon, he might have ridden on tar's vote for Boro, instead of on Kath's vote for tar. This argues for tar's innocence a bit.

Although perhaps Boro was under little suspicion that day . . . and Eomer had to ride a bandwaggon with the hope of saving himself. The second fastest bandwaggon was tar's. Hmmm . . . were two Wolves in danger then? But why didn't tar vote for Eomer, which would have made her look innocent now? A wolf who feared fratricide? Or unwitting innocent? (She was the second voter, who voted at 1616 GMT.) I'm leaning more on the former.

If tar is a wolf either Glirdan or Farael might be, which would account for their no-votes. Still for fears of fratricide. I think.

Celuien still rings alarms in my head, although I'm not so suspicious of her. Kath, too. I guess their Gil votes DAY 1 and their Garin votes DAY 3 still rankle at me.

I have to vote now:

++tar-ancalime

[Aiwendil]

All right, as I hoped, I've got some time to analyse non-Eomer voters.

SPM has provided what look to me like reasonable analyses of Farael, Tar, and Kath, so I'm going to look at Glirdan first and see if I have time to do more.

[Aiwendil]

Glirdan
DAY 1: Proposes that we get rid of the quiet ones (post 4). I find this a bit odd, considering that Glirdan has been fairly quiet. But I don't think that this particularly suggests wolvishness. Then he votes for Gil. He was the first to do so, and as random DAY 1 votes go, Gil was a pretty safe one. On the other hand, it's quite possible that he's an innocent who really did think that eliminating the quiet/unhelpful villagers first was the best strategy. So I don't see anything particularly suspicious in his vote - at least, I don't think it's as suspicious as the later votes for Gil.

DAY 2: Laments the Seer's death and says that his vote for Gil-Galad was random. Then he makes his first really substantial post of the game (# 130). He says that his suggestion that we get rid of the quiet ones was a "complete ploy" to start discussion. All right, but if so, why did he follow through on it and vote for Gil? Then he says we should look at those who reacted strongly to the suggestion, Lhuna in particular. He quotes LMP's reaction, but doesn't say what this makes him think of LMP.

Then he moves on to answer my questions from DAY 1. He says that voting records are important but also:

As for the tone of the post, well, it all depends on how you yourself take the posts. Because one person could take something that was supposed to be humourous and turn into an accusation which could lead to trouble for both people.

He thinks the question about the Gifteds' strategy "isn't as bright as the previous one", though I don't really understand his reasoning for this:

because that's the intention of not only the Gifteds, but the Wolves as well

He says we should probably still spread the votes slightly.

In post 132 he continues to suspect Lhuna. Then he asks "why on earth" Boromir voted for Gil-Galad, claiming that:

Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??


Now, this is false. Several people (including me) had forgotten that with the rule against double lynches, Gil-Galad would have been lynched even in the case of a tie. Further, and for precisely that reason, Boromir did not seal Gil-Galad's fate; Gil would have been lynched whatever Boromir's vote was. It strikes me that this could be a wolvish attempt to start building a case against Boromir, particularly given that Boromir had received four votes on DAY 1 and thus seemed likely to be a lynch-candidate.

Glirdan then voted for Lhuna. His motivation seems to have been nothing more than her reaction to his "lynch the quiet ones" suggestion. Not the best evidence, I think, but nonetheless it's something I could very well see an innocent doing. He was the first to vote for Lhuna, but he knew that there was already some suspicion of her. Could be an attempt to start a bandwagon, but again it's the later votes I tend to suspect more.

It is interesting, though, that Glirdan was the first to vote on both DAYS 1 and 2 and with those two vote he started the campaigns against both Gil and Lhuna.

DAY 3: Says that the reason he answered my questions on DAY 2 instead of DAY 1 was that he had little time. He's confused by LMP's self-vote. Then he says that if LMP wants out, he'll help; he votes for LMP. As others have noted, this looks like a very likely move for a wolf. After LMP withdraws, he does not re-vote. Again, looks like a good move for a wolf.

DAY 4: No appearance at all.

Conclusion: He doesn't look incredibly suspicious to me, but he's certainly worrying me. His votes have all been for innocents who died that DAY. Too obvious for a wolf? Maybe. But somehow he's avoided much suspicion for most of the game.

One thing that really does worry me about him is the way he suggested we lynch the quiet ones and then explained the next DAY that it was a "ploy". This looks suspicious to me in the same way that Tar's DAY 1 attack on Spawn and subsequent backing off looks suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well I am glad that I am not the only one here, but it still seems rather quiet to me. Perhaps the Wolves are avoiding saying anything which might incriminate themselves or each other.

My thoughts on Aiwendil’s contributions. Again, I have addressed only those points which stood out to me one way or the other.

Day 1

His first contribution invited discussion of possible villager strategy (#7). At the time, this struck me as sensible as it is good to have something to discuss on Day 1 other than random accusations and counter-accusations. However, it did kick off all that Seer talk, and so it is possible that it was intended to divert the village into meaningless discussion or perhaps even flush out the True Seer.

Day 2

On Day 2, as on Day 1, his suspicions were mainly directed towards tar-ancalime but, having reviewed her posts, I can understand why.

He was attacked strongly by Farael (again, as on Day 1), but his response looks reasonable to me, if a little bewildered (#187).

Day 3

On Day 3, Aiwendil began to outline strong suspicions of littlemanpoet (starting with #228). Now, quite a few of us were suspicious of lmp at that point but, as I have said, I do suspect that the Wolves had targeted lmp as a likely candidate for the noose that Day, so that could point towards Aiwendil. However, it could also point towards Glirdan, tar-ancalime Farael and Eomer, the last of whom we know was a Wolf.

In his analysis of the villagers, Eomer said that he was giving Aiwendil a “free ride” (#300). Would he say that about a fellow Wolf? Possibly, though it would seem risky given the suspicion surrounding him at the time.

Aiwendil commented that Eomer’s “shrill” defence looked more innocent than Wolfish and (following lmp’s departure) voted for Garin to put him level on votes with Eomer (#316). This does look suspicious, but would be a dangerous move for a Wolf at that time. It was quite possible that Eomer would be lynched.

Day 4

Aiwendil started out by saying that he was inclined to Eomer’s innocence (#351). I am rather doubtful that a Wolfish Aiwendil would have defended Eomer-Wolf in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Eomer was a strong candidate to be lynched. It is possible, though, that it was a double-bluff. He did express stronger suspicions of Eomer as the Day progressed.

I was uncomfortable about Aiwendil’s suggestion that we should lynch either Eomer or tar and then, if they turned out a Wolf, lynch the other, and also with his suggestion that we should lynch morm if either turned out innocent (#372). I can see the sense in what he was saying, but it seems rather calculating to me.

He voted for tar-ancalime, to put her level on votes with Eomer (#384). Might be regarded as suspicious, but, as with Kath, that depends to an extent upon whether tar is a Wolf or not.

The most striking thing from my review of Aiwendil’s posts is how little there is that strikes me, given that he has been one of the more vocal villagers. That might indicate that he is a Wolf trying to play it safe, or it might simply indicate that he is a helpful innocent. What there is may suggest a possible connection with Eomer, but I wonder whether a Wolf would have allowed himself to become connected with another Wolf in that way. It would run counter to the strategy of “playing it safe”, which looks to have been Aiwendil's approach if he is a Wolf.

Still, there are some grounds for suspicion there.

I’d like to take a look at Glirdan and Celuien, but I am not sure how much time I will have to do so. I am already neglecting my dignatorial duties. :rolleyes:

[Aiwendil]

Celuien

DAY 1: Her first post is ordinary DAY 1 nonsense. In post 66, she says she doesn't find Glirdan suspicious, despite his early vote. She finds Tar's shift from suspecting Spawn to voting for Eomer strange. In post 70, she says she doesn't think the False Seer will do much harm, though she does worry a little bit about a wolf impersonating the False Seer. Now, as I've said before, I don't think that the much-maligned DAY 1 "seer talk" was evil or wicked, so these comments look innocent to me. She then comments on Farael's attack on me, disagreeing with his analysis but also saying that his attack makes him look innocent. At the time, I agreed that it did. Now I'm not so sure, though. One could imagine that Farael and Celuien are both wolves and that this was Celuien's way of backing up Farael without being too obvious. Post 91 is more speculation about a wolvish impersonation of the False Seer. Doesn't really change my opinion of her either way.

Then she votes for Gil, putting him at four and thereby ensuring his death. She says this is because she doesn't have much to go on. Of course, no one has much to go on on DAY 1; but obviously Celuien realized that Gil was a clear favorite to be lynched and that her vote could well seal his fate. Could very well be a wolf jumping on the bandwagon.

DAY 2: Says she didn't suspect Holbytlass was gifted. Thinks her death was an unlucky accident. Looks over her posts and doesn't find anything to indicate a Seer; thinks her defense of mormegil was too light to indicate a dream. Says the False Seer should stay hidden until a known innocent would be more useful. This looks to me like a sensible and innocent suggestion.

Later, she takes a look at Lhunardawen and LMP, the two top suspects for the DAY. She seems to conclude that the suspicions of Lhuna are mostly unfounded, though her response to Glirdan's suggestion was strange, and that LMP's vote for Boromir looked very odd, but that she thinks a wolvish LMP would not be so obvious. Defends her re-entering the Seer discussion on DAY 1 against SpM's query.

In post 163, she suddenly picks up on a comment by Garin and accuses him of having "too much sympathy for the furry type". She doesn't feel comfortable with voting for LMP, apparently due to his spirited defence. Also says that Lhuna and Tar do not look wolvish to her. Still thinks that Farael, SpM, and I are innocent, and is willing to consider Boromir innocent for the moment. Votes for Garin. Well, Garin looked suspicious to me too at the time, though it is noteworthy that Celuien hadn't voiced any suspicion of him until that moment. Hers was the first vote for Garin, so it doesn't come across as a wolf jumping on an opportunity.

DAY 3: Gives thoughts on each villager. Her comment on Eomer is:

I can see why he looks suspicious, but there’s not really enough for me to go on to vote for him. Will watch.

That looks a bit like a wolf hesitating between supporting her fellow and distancing herself from him.

She votes for Garin again, and again she's the first to do so. Essentially the same as what she did on DAY 2.

DAY 4: Thinks Spawn's death looks like a deliberate framing of Eomer. Doesn't think a wolvish Eomer would do that. But also acknowledges that it's a possible double-bluff and thus doesn't discount Eomer from consideration. Again, this looks a lot like a wolf trying to have it both ways in talking about a fellow wolf.

In post 348, she names her suspects as Farael, Glirdan, Formendacil, Nilpaurion, Eomer, and Kath. Thinks that if Eomer is a wolf, then Farael is probably not. I disagree with this, since Farael didn't start to attack Eomer until the latter looked likely to be lynched. Perhaps the trio is Eomer, Farael, and Celuien, and she was trying to lay the groundwork for a defence of Farael. She still can't make up her mind about Eomer.

In post 366, she says she believes Formendacil's declaration that he is the False Seer. She now says that she suspects Farael more than Nilpaurion. She will probably not vote for Eomer unless something changes.

And late in the DAY we have the much-discussed Eomer as a Ranger bluff, which Celuien apparently falls for, voting for Tar.

There's certainly a fair amount to suspect here. But the Eomer bluff yesterDAY really leads me to think that she's innocent. Would the wolves have planned something like that so far in advance? Could they pull it off so well without being able to communicate privately? I'm inclined to think they couldn't.

So I'm inclined to think Celuien is probably innocent, at the moment, if only for that reason.

[The Saucepan Man]

*The Viscount Kettle watches a clump of tumbleweed drift slowly through Eaumor*

Anyone else actually interested in finding these Wolves?

Aiwendil has analysed Glirdan, but I also wanted to do so myself. Some of my thoughts are similar to his, but not all.

Day 1

Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. ( :p ). They cannot be trusted.Our one dead Wolf was a noisy one and I suspect that at least one of the remaining two has been quite vocal too. That makes Glirdan’s apparently “jokey” suggestion to kill the quiet ones interesting, as it may have been a clumsy attempt to divert the village’s gaze from his friends. Then again, Glirdan has been very quiet himself for most of our time here. Not sure what to make of his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones in light of that. The likeliest explanation, I suppose, is that he did indeed say it simply to provoke a reaction, as he later claimed.

He voted early for Gil-Galad on Day 1 (#15). I have said earlier why this inclined me to think him probably innocent. It is possible, however, that a Wolfish Glirdan voted for Gil to try to kick off a Gil bandwagon, the Wolves having identified him as an potential Day 1 target for lynching.

Eomer defended Glirdan early on, when it looked possible that Glirdan might be lynched:

We have to remember that Glirdan had to vote early. I must get that in as it looks like I shall also have to vote early. My guess is that he chose to vote for Gil because Gil is notoriously quiet and hard to decipher anyway ... It might be a tremendous place for Glirdan to hide (the very first vote) but I am definitely leaning towards Glirdan's innocence; ... Day 2

He voted early again on Day 2, this time for Lhuna. This was after he had made a quite a strong case against her, based mainly on her reaction to his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones (which I must admit made me suspicious of her at the time) and for her vote for him (#130, #132, #147). Again, I had thought it spoke in favour of his innocence, but now I am wondering whether the Wolves hd targetted Lhuna as a possible Day 2’s lynch victim. Eomer voted for her too, but would two Wolves be caught in a lynch mob?

Days 3 and 4

Other than the withdrawn vote for littlemanpoet on Day 3 (#280), he has not voted (and hardly contributed) since.

In his analysis on Day 3, Eomer said that he was inclined to trust Glirdan (#300). That could speak in Glirdan’s favour, as I suspect that Eomer would have avoided associating himself with a fellow Wolf at that time.

My conclusion on Glirdan is much the same as Aiwendil's. He doesn’t look particularly suspicious, but there are some things there which might suggest Wolfishness. There are others looking far more lycanthropic to me, though.

Edit: Cross-posted with Aiwendil, hence the tumbleweed. :D

[Aiwendil]

Well, I've got to go (cook business). I'm in something of a quandry regarding whom to vote for.

Tar and Farael both still look very suspicious to me. But Eomer's apparent attempt to save himself by getting Tar lynched has really shaken my confidence in her guilt. Farael's self-vote has also made me wonder about him.

I really wish that there were more activity toDAY. We have little more to go on now than we did at the beginning of the DAY.

All right, I guess I'll vote for:

++Farael

[The Saucepan Man]

I really wish that there were more activity toDAY.You are not alone in that. I too must vote soon and would have preferred to have the benefit of others' thoughts before doing so.

I know it duplicates some of what Aiwendil did, but I did much if the leg-work while reviewing the others, so here are my thoughts on the remaining non-Eomer voter from yesterday, Celuien.

Day 1

I have already commented a few times on her attempt to divert attention away from herself when accused (#23). She was the only one to react in such a way to morm’s random accusations. I now tend to think that it was just part of the general Day 1 discourse, though.

She got involved in the Seer talk on Day 1 (#70 and #91), but doesn’t look particularly suspicious for it.

Voted for an innocent Gil-Galad on Day 1, citing Kath’s reasoning (#93). It might be seen as Wolfish to rely on another villager’s reasoning when casting a vote. But this looks to me the least likely of the Gil votes to have been cast by a Wolf.

Day 2

Voted for Garin, but I am not sure that tells us much. Nothing else really stands out about her from Day 2.

Day 3

In his villager analysis (#300), Eomer expressed surprise that she was under so much suspicion. I am not sure that she was at the time and, in those circumstances, I doubt Eomer would have said this about a fellow Wolf as it would only draw unnecessary attention to her (although see comment on Eomer’s post #365 below).

In her own analysis on Day 3 (#303), she was rather non-committal, except with regard to Garin, whom she voted for, giving him one vote. Of all the votes for Garin that day, it looks the least suspicious to me.

Day 4

Celuien thought it more likely that spawn’s death was intended to set Eomer up, but she said that she was not prepared to discount him (#335). Hedging her bets or innocent uncertainty? More likely the latter, I think.

Suggested that, if Eomer was a Wolf, Farael was probably not and vice versa (#348). Like Aiwendil, I am not sure that I agree with that and it could have been an attempt to protect a Wolfish Farael. She wasn’t entirely comfortable with the “Wereomer theory”, which doesn’t look to me the sort of thing a Wolf would say at that time, given that Eomer was in serious danger of being lynched.

Named as a possible Wolf by Eomer (#365), an interesting turnaround from his Day 3 surprise that she was under suspicion. Possibly, an attempt to put some distance between them.

Defended her non-committal stance and said that she did not expect to vote for Eomer (#366).

I have commented already on the exchange between Eomer and Celuien at the end of Day 4 (#400, #401) which led to her vote for tar. I am far inclined to see it more as suggesting her innocence than any complicity between them.

Not a lot to go on there, but what there is does not look particularly Wolfish to me. She’s not off my radar yet, but I am more inclined to think her innocent than any of the other non-Eomer voters.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorting through my thoughts, this is where they get me. I have concentrated mainly on those who did not vote for Eomer yesterday, because I am certain that there is a Wolf there. More likely than not, there are two.

Main suspects: Farael, tar-ancalime

Making me nervous: Kath, Aiwendil, Glirdan

Probably innocent: mormegil, Nilp, Celuien

Innocent: Formendacil

Farael still looks very suspicious to me, but I am concerned by his vote for himself. It is very similar to what lmp did, and that makes me nervous.

However, it seems to me that there is much to suggest that tar-ancalime is a Wolf and her failure to contribute anything of great substance today, without explanation, concerns me greatly. It also seems sensible to me to keep the votes spread between my two prime suspects, as if one of them is innocent and there is a Wolf yet to vote, it may serve to keep them on their toes and possibly provide the village with something more to go on tomorrow.

++ TAR-ANCALIME

[Formendacil]

Well, I'm back...

For an hour or so, at least.

However, there's very little to catch up on in the village. Little enough that, upon reading it all, I think most of it's still in my head- a rare occurence, that.

On the face of it, I'm inclined to think that Tar-Ancalime's vote for Glirdan is incriminating. It's very thrown-away feeling, to me anyway. Why vote for Glirdan? Thus far, he has been quiet, yes, and therefore suspicion-inducing, but I wouldn't say that he seriously heads up the suspicion lists for the rest of us.

Tar-Ancalime shall, probably, get my vote. But I have an hour yet. Let us wait and see...

[Formendacil]

.... and no one else has posted....

How dreary these games are after the first few action-packed days. 'Tis as if all the good villagers up and die! :p

Well, this being Ash Wednesday and all, perhaps a certain quietness is in order, although it's rather boring. I shall have to return to work ere long, and in lack of any further conversation, I must vote:

++ Tar-Ancalime

[mormegil]

I still need to read the last three posts but I still wanted to give my opinion on a topic that has been fairly recurring today. Would wolf Eomer willingly vote for a fellow fiend? YES! and there is precendent in his bloodline. Think about it, who were the two most likely candidates of the day? Eomer and Tar-a, of course. Now what would be one of the ways to help make the other look innocent? Have a wolf go after another wolf, that way we all will think that they wouldn't do it. I'm not convinced at all. My guess is that tar-a was forced, due to circumstance, to vote early, Eomer say the tide turning against tar-a and him and decided that the strategy of wolf-on-wolf voting would be best suited here. Both could not die and whoever is left would look more innocent.

The Celuien quandry has me perplexed. When Aiwendil asked if they could have planned such a thing in advance, no I don't but they could have had some plans along those lines to be implemented in dire straights. Or it could have been impromptu, as I believe both of them are intelligent and quick enough to pull off. However it would have to be a very good act on Celuien's part to pull it off. Still I'm unsure.

My opinion of Aiwendil is that he's more innocent today than yesterday and I appreciate SpM's analysis of him however I cannot shake the problematic defense of Eomer and the 'saving votes' I noted earlier.

[mormegil]

Voting so far
Farael for Farael (but it wasn't bolded? Does that matter?)
tar-a for Glirdan
Nilp for tar-a
Aiwendil for Farael
SpM for tar-a
Formendacil for tar-a


Totals
tar-a-3
Farael-2
Glirdan-1


Have not voted yet
Mormegil
Glirdan
Kath
Celuien

If I vote tar-a it will more or less seal her fate, however if I vote Farael it might cause a wolf, if they haven't voted change the lead and depending upon the outcome we might get more info to go on.

I will wait a while longer if I can.

[Kath]

I'm going to vote

++tar-a

I'm not sure myself that she is a wolf, but it seems that the roles of others may be clarified, or at least helped along in that regard, if she is killed. And if she is a wolf then even better.

[mormegil]

++Farael

Kath's vote sealed the deal for me. I'm not sure what to make of her vote.

[Shelob]

(As compared to the other days this one has been rather {read: very} quiet. Only during the morning was there anything resembling the heated discussions of previous days.)

Farael: I fear I’ve done nothing but distract the village, if it helps in any way I volunteer myself to be today’s lynching candidate.
Saucepan Man: I’m not quite sure what to make of that…
Formendacil: No kidding, it makes me think that he’s innocent though…no, wait, he might be a wolf who wants us to think that he’s innocent…
Tar: Perhaps, but I’m more worried about Glirdan, he’s been too quiet for my liking.
Nilp: But other than that he’s not really that suspicious. Now you on the other hand, you’re very suspicious.

(Insert tumbleweed here.)

Aiwendil: So….any conclusions?
Mormegil: Not yet.
Kath: I think Tar’s a wolf. Let’s lynch her.

(The villagers gather around Tar, keeping slightly more distance from her than they have from their previous companions since they haven’t quite figured out that ‘ex’ means she no longer has leprosy)

Tar: I’m not a wolf, I’m telling you.
Formendacil: Please, this has been hard on us all. If it looks like a wolf, votes like a wolf and acts like a wolf, it’s a wolf. Even a fool knows that.

(They lynch Tar-Ancalime, the only thing unusual with the lynching is that Tar, upon reaching the steps to the gallows, ran through the village and into the Forest. The villagers chased her for some ways until, as she flitted in and out of their sight through the brances, they watched as an ancient tree suddenly swooped down and ate her. Other than that little incident they have lynched another innocent.)


-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5[I]
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--[I]Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5

NIGHT 6, as usual...and I'm sorry about today's death, but I just really didn't have the energy to put into it.

[Shelob]

(The House of the town’s beekeeper. The bees know something is up but it hasn’t kept them from doing their normal bee thing. The villagers, similarly, know something is up and, similarly, must do their normal thing. Unfortunately in their case this isn’t going from flower to flower, it’s looking at the corpse.)

Farael: Great, the wolves killed Kath.
Voice from outside: (faintly) …no…
Nilp: I would have thought they’d kill Form, he is a known innocent after all.
Voice from outside: (fainter) …no…
Aiwendil: Does anyone else hear that? And where’s Morm?

(Aiwendil’s observations bring a harsh realization to the villagers, Mormegil isn’t actually with them and it sounds like someone else is dying. They exit the beekeeper’s house and follow the ever fainter ‘no’s to where Mormegil has been half heartedly hidden behind one of Kath’s hives.)

Celuien: Mormegil! Are you alright?
Formendacil: He’s got a dagger in his back, do you really think he’s ‘alright’?
Saucepan Man: Don’t crowed him, perhaps he saw something which could help us.
Glirdan: (who had helped Mormegil sit up somewhat) Well Morm, did you see anything, anything at all that we could use?

(Mormegil’s eyes aren’t focused, they aren’t even looking in the same direction. He’s clearly been lying there for a while and there’s just as clearly no chance he’ll be able to say more than a few syllables before giving into death.)

Mormegil: You two brutes.

(With that he dies. The villagers look at each other, it’s clear now that the wolves didn’t kill Kath, their hunter did. It’s just as clear that he had somehow recognized both his murderers amongst those still living, though with his eyes as unfocused as they had been.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)--Stabbed in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6

DAY 6 begins, Discuss, Argue, Vote...

[Formendacil]

Oh crap!

We're down to four Ordos, me, and Two Werewolves...

We really shot ourselves in the foot with tar-Ancalime yesterday, and if we don't catch a Werewolf today...

So, we still have me, Nilp, and SPM off of yesterday's "Presumed Innocent" list. Which leaves, for the purposes of my suspicions:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Celuien.

A one in two chance of nabbing a Werewolf, if I'm right about Nilp and SPM.

I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil.

[Aiwendil]

Well, things are looking fairly bleak.

Still, we've a chance. We still have Formendacil, our precious Fool, and a known innocent can be quite a valuable thing at this point in the game.

I'm still willing to consider Nilpaurion and SpM likely innocent, given their votes for Eomer.

Celuien I still think is likely innocent given Eomer's apparent deception of her late on DAY 4.

That leaves me with Farael and Glirdan. I wouldn't be surprised if these were our two wolves.

Formendacil wrote:
I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil.

May I ask why, particularly? Not that I don't mind being wrongly lynched now and then, but at this point killing an innocent would practically doom the village.

I do understand, though, how my misguided defence of Eomer could be misconstrued as a wolvish tactic. On that point I can say little more than that I was wrong, though by DAY 4 I had come to think Eomer likely to be a wolf.

I do rather hope that the village is not as quiet as yesterDAY, though I have a suspicion it will be . . .

[Celuien]

I'm terribly sorry about yesterday - I intended to come back, talk some more, and vote yesterday, but I missed getting back to the village (read - my Internet access) in time.

It seems that few of us remain among the living. Of those of us left, I know I'm ordinary. We know Formendacil is innocent. I too have a hunch that SpM and Nilp are innocent. Leaving:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan

I'm just about certain that two of those are the remaining wolves. Of those three, I'm least suspicious of Aiwendil. Unless I can be convinced otherwise, my vote will go to either Farael or Glirdy today.

More later...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil. (Form)I don't know . . . I have a hunch that one of the last Werewolves is very smart. Very crafty. Why risk a lot and go for Boromir NIGHT 5 and morm NIGHT 6, when they could have killed the known innocent Foolmendacil ( :p ) instead? Someone bothered to sniff out the last true Gifteds.

For me it points to Aiwendil, unless I'm totally wrong about SpM.

For the last Werewolf, I'd say one of the quiet ones.

I think you're innocent now, vzv, Celuien. (I hope, oh dear, I hope I'm right about you.)

[The Saucepan Man]

This is not good. Not in the least. If we make a mistake today, then tomorrow we will be down to three innocent villagers and two Wolves and staring death right in its big, toothy maw.

That means that we have some serious thinking to do, and fast. So it would be helpful if everyone could participate as fully as they are able. No excuses. No long periods of silence. No self-votes. Just full and frank discussion. Yesterday, it seemed at times that there were only three of us in this village, and one of them is now dead. That cannot happen again, or we might as well give up now. It is only by sharing all of our thoughts and opinions that we will have any hope of distinguishing those who are genuine in what they say from those who are dissembling.

Right. Lecture over. Let's get back to work. Here's yesterday's voting record:

1. Farael for Farael (Farael-1)
2. Tar-ancalime for Glirdan (Farael-1, Glirdan-1)
3. Nilp for tar-ancalime (Farael-1, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1)
4. Aiwendil for Farael (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1)
5. The Saucepan Man for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-2)
6. Formendacil for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-3)
7. Kath for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4)
8. Mormegil for Farael (Farael-3, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4)

Did not vote: Celuien, Glirdan

Of those still with us and not proven innocent, the only ones to vote for tar-ancalime were Nilp and me. Since I am innocent and I am still inclined to think that Nilp is (although that's a working assumption, not a belief), it would appear that no Wolves voted for her. That would make sense to me as village opinion was clearly turning against her as the day progressed and it would have been dangerous for a Wolf to be caught there.

Farael voted for himself so, if it was a Wolfish tactic, it paid off. As matters stand, I think that it probably was. And if Farael is a Wolf, then I strongly doubt that Aiwendil is. Quite apart from Farael's campaign against him, I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf who had voted for himself to save himself. But Aiwendil is most certainly not off the hook at this stage.

That leaves the two non-voters. Both, I think, have provided reasons for their no-votes. But that does not mean that they are not Wolves. In fact, I think it highly likely that at least one of them is a Wolf, most likely Glirdan. Although I am beginning to wonder whether that exchange between Eomer and Celuien at the end of Day 4 may have been play-acting after all.

I am therefore fairly confident that our remaining two Wolves are to be found in the following group:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Celuien

And right now, Farael and Glirdan are looking the most likely candidates to me.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

My instincts (or whatever second-hand version of that I got) tells me Farael is a Werewolf, what with his focused attacks and all that confusion the previous DAY.

But since there's that nagging thought telling me Aiwendil is also a Werewolf (see my post #461), I doubt my instincts is correct. Unless they're playing one of the greatest bluffs in WW history.

Glirdan . . . well, we've not been hearing much from him. I understand his RL problems but still, he's leaving us with little to go on. And those little points to a lot of trouble.

More later. I have to go to class.

[Celuien]

Playing the numbers game...

It looks like everyone is agreeing that the last two wolves are to be found in the group of Farael, Aiwendil, Glirdan or me.

Farael and Aiwendil are tied to each other through their early sparring, by virtue of which I think it's unlikely that they are both wolves. But, if that short list is correct, it's a 100% chance that one of them is lupine (since I know that I'm not).

Now, of the two, Aiwendil looks the less suspicious to me. He's been analytical. Right now, the main point against him is defense of Wereomer. A charge of which I am also guilty. Having fallen victim to Wereomer's tricks, I can easily see where others could have been fooled. Though I can also see Nilp's point. Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us.

Speaking of Farael, he also looks even odder after his self-vote, particularly in light of elempi's self-vote. Once it was used by a known innocent, a wolvish Farael might have used it as cover, thinking that by doing the same thing as a known innocent, he would also appear genuine by association.

What to do today? I'm pretty confident of that short list's being correct, based on discussion given over the past couple of days. Given the Aiwendil/Farael uncertainty, Glirdan might be the best choice for today, since I'm not totally sure of which is the wolf.

Unless SpM or Nilp have tricked me. In which case you deserve to win.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us. (nice froggie :D )Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

One of the Werewolves is not under much suspicion. Another finger at Aiwendil.

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY. He might show a bit of fang.

[The Saucepan Man]

Someone bothered to sniff out the last true Gifteds.Well of course they did. That is surely something that preoccupies Wolves greatly while Gifteds remain in the village. Which is a point worth looking into. Did the Wolves manage to spot them or were they just lucky, as it now looks like they were with Holby?

I have seen nothing which may have suggested that Boro was the Ranger. But I did notice this comment from morm on Day 4 when I reviewed the events thus far yesterday:

Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them.I did not want to risk blowing his cover, so I did not say anything about it at the time, but it looked like a possible Hunter hint to me. And now that we know that he was the Hunter, I am certain that is what it was.

Which is useful to know as it seems to me that, if the Wolves spotted it too and concluded that morm might be the Hunter, then they would have been unlikely to go after him if they thought that there was a risk of him taking one of them with him.

So, who were possible morm targets going into last night?

Looking back, he was quite suspicious of Aiwendil and, although his suspicions lessened as the day progressed, he remained concerned about him. He also had doubts about Farael and ended up voting for him, although it looks like that was partly because of the state of voting at that stage. He expressed some mild suspicion of Celuien, but I can't see that he had any strong suspicions of Glirdan. It looks like he suspected Kath (and therefore hunted her last night) because of her late vote for tar-ancalime, which he said he was not sure what to make of.

So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him. That does not mean that Glirdan and Celuien are the Wolves or that Farael and Aiwendil are innocent, but it's more evidence to consider.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.I see that we are thinking along the same lines, Nilp. Although the Wolves would have been taking quite a risk in killing morm if one or both of them were under suspicion from him. I think that last comment from morm was the only time he expressed any strong suspicion of Kath.

It is possible, I suppose, that the Wolves did not pick up on the indications that morm was the Hunter, but I think it unlikely given that they would surely have been on the lookout for that sort of thing.

[Celuien]

One of the Werewolves is not under much suspicion. Another finger at Aiwendil.

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY. He might show a bit of fang.

I will. Maybe I find it hard to suspect him because he said that I was probably innocent yesterday.

More on Farael:

There is this post from Wereomer, already quoted in part by our departed Hunter:

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

I explained before how weird I thought Farael's case against Aiwendil, and the reaction from the village, was. Comes out, all guns blazing, with little evidence (as I see it) for an attack on Aiwendil. Celuien and Nilpaurion (as well as Lhunardawen, to be fair) both shrug him off as likely to be innocent. I think this may well have been the wolf-agenda for the first night. Farael decided he would pick a target and the others (or one of the others) would back him up. The village was distracted with other stuff (like the Seer talk) and would probably just take the other wolf's word for it. And that other wolf is either Celuien or Nilpaurion.

My money's on Nilp, simply because of that weirdness he pulled earlier on—that 'I feel stupid' post. That's not helping anyone. It's designed to be vague and to confuse us, and since he's under barely any suspicion (SPM trusts him because of that anagram, which I think is a very dangerous move to make) he could get away with this because the village would probably say 'Oh Nilp! and nothing more.

Like morm, I wouldn't be surprised if he really did hide a fellow wolf in that list with two innocents. Trying to pair up an ally with an innocent villager. It wouldn't be unprecedented to make the case that both members of the pair had to be wolves, get the innocent lynched, then use that to exonerate the guilty one. Which is bringing me back to Farael. Again.

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

Fair enough. If they did know morm was the Hunter, it did look pretty obvious that Kath would be his target.

But I'm not sure that Farael/Glirdy wouldn't be as capable of figuring out morm's secret profession as Aiwendil.

Ah well. Back to look at Aiwendil.

[Aiwendil]

Nilpaurion Felagund wrote:
Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY

Please do.

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger.

To me as well. I would think that the wolves must have guessed he was the Hunter, otherwise why not kill Formendacil?

Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.

The Saucepan Man wrote:
So, who were possible morm targets going into last night?

This is an interesting line of thought. Of course, it's possible that someone whom Mormegil suspected would have been willing to take the risk. But this does raise some doubts about Farael's guilt for me.

[Celuien]

Maybe I should say comparatively obvious:

++Farael

Kath's vote sealed the deal for me. I'm not sure what to make of her vote.

Voting for Farael to oppose Kath on the assumption of a Kath-wolf....

[Farael]

I think I was misunderstood yesterDAy. I wanted 'out' not because things were 'looking bleak' but because I have no credibility left. What ever I say, it could be just shrugged off as "more of Farael's nonesense". Now it's too late, as it was mentioned before, that killing the wrong person will leave us with only one innocent above certain death.

Given the need to discard at least SOME suspects, I will write off SPM and Nilp for their vote against Eomer. Formen is also innocent, our lovely village fool. That leaves us with Aiwendil and the two non-voters. I will go through them in alphabetical order

Aiwendil:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 tar-a Innocent No
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 tar-a Innocent No
Note here that it was the day we lynched Eomer.
5 Farael Unknown No
I concede that, while I know I'm innocent, you all do not.

Now, one of the main points against me is that I have limited the people I have voted for and thus I'm avoiding leaving a voting record. Well, Aiwendil has voted for three people, two of them the most popular to be lynched and yet yesterDay, when tar-a seemed to be the one going to the gallows, he changed his mind and voted for me. I can see why, but he also avoided voting for someone who would soon be revealed a known innocent. Don't be fooled by my three votes against Tar-a's four, as one of the three was by myself. All in all, only two villagers thought me suspicious enough to vote for me. One was Morm, our hunter... the other might have been trying to avoid voting for someone who would be revealed a known innocent after that night.

He has played an extremely cautious game, and it has worked out for him.

Celuien
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 Tar-a Innocent No
Now it gets fishy... Eomer MIGHT have fooled her... but how about two smart wolves, who happened to be around at the same time trying to flush out a gifted? any way, it is very convenient and... did you note that it was actually Celuien who brought up the giftedness? post 396... Eomer had not insinuated anything about being gifted in his last posts, besides telling Formen that if the remaining voters voted for tar-a it would have been marvelous.... the more I look at it, the less it seems to me it was an accident and the more it was some quick thinking by the wolves. She didn't vote in day 5

Glirdan:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Lhuna Innocent Yes
3 LMP Innocent Sort of, but he was the
main suspect until then
4 No vote, he declares he will be away for three days
5 No vote

I have almost nothing to go on with for Glirdan. The votes he did cast were all for innocents on the day of their lynching (or sudden dissapearing) but honestly, I have nothing to work with.

My thoughts
Aiwendil's voting pattern is just slightly better than mine, Glirdan's is outright awful when he did vote and Celuien's is no better. There are two things that I find interesting. First of all, I no longer think that Celuien was tricked by Eomer. Second, look at days 2 3 and 4 for both Aiwendil and Celuien.... same votes. On day 3, those two votes were the difference between Eomer and Garin. It's also very suspicious that on day 4 they both voted for Tar-a which was the second-most likely individual to be lynched.

While working on this post there were several replies.... two things I'd like to mention on.

So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him
Actually, I don't think that Morm was really suspicious of Aiwendil by the end of the day. And as a matter of fact, his last comment hints heavily whom he would be after should he get murdered that night. I think Aiwendil could have still taken the chance.

Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.
Add our only known innocent to the list and you will have all the villagers remaining besides himself :rolleyes: come on, I'm no longer 'having fun' by going after Aiwendil... does no-one else see this as playing way too safe? he is mentioning everyone, so if we get a wolf toDay he can say "I somewhat suspected him" and if we get an innocent he can say "Well, I didn't really suspect him the most"

Right now, Celuien and Aiwendil are looking pretty lynchable.... specially on account of their common votes on days two three and four (mostly three and four), Celuien's "mistake" and Aiwendil's extremely safe aproach

[The Saucepan Man]

Voting for Farael to oppose Kath on the assumption of a Kath-wolf....Which would suggest that he thought a Wolfish Kath had voted to save a Wolfish Farael.

I still think it more likely than not that Farael is a Wolf, but that does give me some pause for thought.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:
Add our only known innocent to the list and you will have all the villagers remaining besides himself

Yes, that was the point. Perhaps you'd like it better if I put it this way:

Top suspects
Farael
Glirdan

Don't know
SpM
Nilp
Celuien

Innocent
Formendacil

[Celuien]

And some more numbers:

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien
________________
Wolves: 2
Villagers: 5

Assuming that the wolves are to be found among Farael, Glirdy or Aiwendil, if we kill an innocent from that list toDAY, we start tomorrow at Wolves 2, Villagers 3. But we'd then pretty much know the identities of the remaining two wolves. What we would have to do, however, is coordinate so that all innocents vote for the same wolf tomorrow. Then we would end tomorrow at Wolves 1, Villagers 3, start the following day at Wolves 1, Villagers 2 and win the game on that day.

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.

If I've made an mistakes in my numeric reckoning, please point them out.

*still looking at Aiwendil*

[Farael]

Which would suggest that he thought a Wolfish Kath had voted to save a Wolfish Farael.

I still think it more likely than not that Farael is a Wolf, but that does give me some pause for thought.
Hold on one second... Kath saving me? I had two votes right then (myself and Aiwendil) and tar-a had three... at the same time, there were three people yet to vote (morm, glirdan and celuien), so when Kath casted hers tar-a was by no means condemned... I don't think she was trying to save me, and I dont think Morm thought so... I think he was just trying to keep the options open, as a vote for tar would have actually made sure she got lynched. I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

[Farael]

Yes, that was the point. Perhaps you'd like it better if I put it this way:

Top suspects
Farael
Glirdan

Don't know
SpM
Nilp
Celuien

Innocent
Formendacil
What's the point of putting it that way? We are all aware that our only known innocent is Formen.... but most of us will give SPM and Nilp a break given their votes for Eomer. It's weak but we need to start crossing names off the list and their votes for SPM is a moderately good reason to do so. You seem to add names back into the list, what for?

[Celuien]

did you note that it was actually Celuien who brought up the giftedness? post 396... Eomer had not insinuated anything about being gifted in his last posts, besides telling Formen that if the remaining voters voted for tar-a it would have been marvelous....

Not quite true, Farael....

Mormegil, you speak of the gifteds like you know the intricate discussions they have had. Do you really know how finely balanced this is? Can you possibly understand?

Edge of a knife.

You speak either as a Gifted yourself, or as a Werewolf trying to befuddle us/pass on a hint to your buddies.

I wonder which one it could be...

Let me put it this way, Form: If the other three all vote for Tar-Ancalime, it would be positively marvellous.

Though I am suspicious that they won't show up. Oh dear, I knew I shouldn't have relinquished control of the internet.

And so on. Blatantly hinting of giftedness before I came around. And said hints were openly discussed by both Ford and Boro before I made it back to the village.

It seems very, very strange that you could have missed those details. And it's making you look more like a wolf to me.

I need to take a nap. Will return tomorrow.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:
What's the point of putting it that way? We are all aware that our only known innocent is Formen.... but most of us will give SPM and Nilp a break given their votes for Eomer. It's weak but we need to start crossing names off the list and their votes for SPM is a moderately good reason to do so. You seem to add names back into the list, what for?

I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? You've again confused me. All I've been trying to say is that I think it probable that both you and Glirdan are wolves but possible that only one of you is, and that the other is one of the other three.

I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

For once, I actually agree with Farael. Mormegil seemed to have been hesitant to vote for Farael because of the ratio of the votes earlier. But with Kath's vote for Tar, he went ahead.

[The Saucepan Man]

I think he was just trying to keep the options open, as a vote for tar would have actually made sure she got lynched. I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.You appear to be trying to argue your way up in my suspicions, Farael, which is ... interesting. :confused:

I had viewed morm's vote in the same way that you have put it, but Celuien's interpretation put a slightly different slant on it. Kath's vote might well have been seen by morm as an attempt to save you, particularly as it looked likely that Glirdan was unlikely to turn up to vote.

Once again, I must depart for the night in some confusion over Farael. I will be back tomorrow.

[Farael]

My mistake Celuien, but it was out of need to haste than wolfishness... although now that you mention it, exactly how would that comment make me look wolfish? I'm looking forward to hear from you, because now I just feel you are trying to incriminate me.

[Farael]

I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? You've again confused me. All I've been trying to say is that I think it probable that both you and Glirdan are wolves but possible that only one of you is, and that the other is one of the other three.

Sorry, I missed this.... what I was saying is that you were arguing the obvious, which may or may not be an attempt at seeming useful while still not risking a thing. I would greatly appreciate it if you took at least ONE risk... even if it is going after my neck.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The more I hear from Aiwendil the more I find myself trusting him. (morm @431)My opinion of Aiwendil is that he's more innocent today than yesterday and I appreciate SpM's analysis of him however I cannot shake the problematic defense of Eomer and the 'saving votes' I noted earlier. (morm @452)

Knowing morm he wouldn't go after a potentially useful villager on basis of such equivocal evidence. He'd rather go after the two non-voters, perhaps until Kath's strange vote made him change his mind.

Which means Aiwendil was most likely safe from the Hunter. Perhaps (if our assumptions are correct that either Glirdan or Farael is a Werewolf) a wolf-Aiwendil's buddy was in danger of being hunted, but he was safe.

Why this sudden attack on him?

I don't know. It slipped my mind the previous DAY, but Boro's death was an absolute suprise for me. They took the chance to get a true Gifted instead of going for the easy kill. Perhaps they feared that with the tandem still alive, they could declare themselves the next DAY and take the initiative from the Werewolves.

There's some very deep tactical thinking going on inside at least one of our remaining fiends. Unless I'm seriously wrong about Sauce, it points to Aiwendil.

[Formendacil]

After a good eight-hour shift of work, five runny noses, a Tropical Hawaiian pizza, and a chance to browse the thread...

...I am even more convinced that Aiwendil is probably a Werewolf. If not, we are doomed, of course, blah, blah, blah, blah. I, I think, am probably doomed tonight no matter what (although the Werewolves could leave this clueless villager standing and go after SPM or something).

Anyway, why do I think Aiwendil a Werewolf?

Reason the First: He's still alive.

Normally, this is what SPM or Morm would come in for about this point in the game, assuming that one of them was alive, but I think it's merited for Aiwendil as well. He is not, by and large, a player who tends to last far into the game. He's the sort that the Werewolves kill early: because he's cautious and thus leads little trail back to them, but because he's also smart and potentially dangerous.

The fact that Aiwendil is still alive worries me.

But a lot more worrisome to me is Aiwendil's strong interest today in staying alive. Now, none of us want to die, but most accepted Innocents tend to take it in stride as a natural course of events, eventually. A Werewolf, however, because the power of Life and Death is concentrated in his hands, doesn't tend to sacrifice himself or to be willing to die- even if it's really bad for the village.

Quite frankly, Aiwendil has seemed more anxious to hold onto his life than normal- normal for himself or normal for an Innocent. In my opinion, this is rather indicting.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm seriously considering voting for Aiwendil, unless something interesting happens in the next few minutes . . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Aiwendil

You know my reasons.

[Celuien]

My mistake Celuien, but it was out of need to haste than wolfishness... although now that you mention it, exactly how would that comment make me look wolfish? I'm looking forward to hear from you, because now I just feel you are trying to incriminate me.

How? Because if I truly had been the first to bring up the idea that Eomer was gifted, the exchange between us would have most likely been a prearranged ploy. Ignoring the fact that Eomer was the one hinting of giftedness and then using our conversation as a method to deflect suspicion on to me instead of you would be an entirely legitimate thing for a cornered wolf to attempt. Plus, a delibrate misinterpretation of Eomer's past comments is a distraction that takes time away from the current issue of you vs Aiwendil and sends us (well, me at least) back to replying to your error. Another confusion inducing, possible lupine strategy. And that's why I said what I did.

[The Saucepan Man]

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.Perhaps you misstated the position to draw our attention away from Glirdan. Although that would seem unlikely, so I tend to think it was probably an innocent mistake.

I think you are right though that our choice today is probably between either lynching Farael or Aiwendil (because if one is a Wolf, the other is probably not) or lynching Glirdan.

With regard to Farael and Aiwendil, I am rather undecided at the moment. To my mind, Farael’s behaviour throughout has been the more Wolfish. However, his self-vote yesterday still concerns me as it was a very bold move for a Wolf. Also, he said (at #475) that mormegil would have suspected him less than Kath going into last night which, if he is right, suggests that it would have been less risky for a Wolfish Farael to kill mormegil than I had thought. But why would a Wolf point that out about himself? And, while Aiwendil has come across to me as analytical and helpful throughout, I can see how a Wolfish Aiwendil may well have used this approach to try to prod the village in the wrong direction and protect his Wolfish pals. His voting record, when Eomer was under consideration, certainly does not look good.

Of the two, I am beginning to think that Aiwendil might actually be the better choice. Only problem is that, if he is innocent, he is the more useful to have around. Sorry if that sounds harsh, Farael, but you have been causing a lot of confusion, which I don’t regard as having been particularly helpful.

Glirdan, as people have said, is almost impossible to get any kind of a handle on because of his lack of contribution over the last few Days. And, while I accept that he has reasons for that, I can see how it could nevertheless work to the advantage of a Wolf. It has kept him out of serious consideration since the first Day.

One point does occur to me with regard to Glirdan. Do we know at all whether (assuming he is not lynched today) he is likely to be around tomorrow? Because, if we do make a mistake today, we need all of the innocents voting tomorrow. If he is not likely to be here, then he will not be much help to us, even if he is innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Looking back at the village noticeboard, I see that Glirdan has said that he will be back tomorrow:

Well, as you've probably noticed by my deathly scilence, I was away all day and did not get a chance to post. Once again, I will not be able to post until this weekend because I will be busy all day Wednsday-Friday. I may ba able to post tomorrow. Sorry!!Can he be relied upon? We should be able to trust what is said on the noticeboard, so I do accept this at face value. But if he is innocent, and we do not lynch him today, we really need him to turn up tomorrow.

[Aiwendil]

Formendacil wrote:
Quite frankly, Aiwendil has seemed more anxious to hold onto his life than normal- normal for himself or normal for an Innocent. In my opinion, this is rather indicting.

That's because lynching an innocent at this point would be fairly disastrous. As for why I'm still alive - apparently the wolves have been busy killing our Gifteds lately. Moreover, I'm (obviously) now under quite a bit of suspicion.

I become more and more convinced that Farael is a wolf. Glirdan still concerns me, but I see less concrete evidence there. So I will probably vote for Farael, unless something changes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, thinking it through, if Glirdan is a Wolf and does not turn up, then that will be one Wolf vote less, so his attendance is not quite as necessary as I had thought.

On that basis, I am likely to vote for either Farael or Aiwendil today, and I am seriously leaning towards Aiwendil at the moment. Unless Farael is being very devious, that reference to himself being lower in morm's suspicions than Kath looks very much like the sort of thing a hapless innocent might say.

I am, however, rather hoping to hear a bit more from others before I have to vote.

[Celuien]

No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.


Okay. My mistake. *pulls out kindergarten learn to count book* :rolleyes:

Honestly, I'm somewhat uneasy about voting Aiwendil today since Farael does look far more suspicious to me. If Farael is a wolf, he has been playing a fairly bold game all along, and the Kath ranking comment would be consistent with his strategy as a wolf.

I see your point about Aiwendil, however, being in a very, very good position to cover any wolvish tracks. And if I force myself to put aside my being taken in my Eomer, he doesn't look good in light of his voting record there. Aiwendil's consistent caution would be what I would expect of a wolf, somewhat more than Farael's boldness. At the same time, Eomer was a very bold wolf, and I suppose they could both have been playing a bold game, thinking that we wouldn't suspect a double team of bold wolves.

So thinking about it, I suppose Farael and Aiwendil objectively look about equally wolvish to me. Subjectively, I'm leaning toward Farael.

[The Saucepan Man]

Honestly, I'm somewhat uneasy about voting Aiwendil today since Farael does look far more suspicious to me.I am somewhat uneasy about voting for either of them as, while I am sure that one of them is a Wolf, I am in a quandry as to which one.

Farael is a wolf, he has been playing a fairly bold game all along, and the Kath ranking comment would be consistent with his strategy as a wolf.True, but it really doesn't come across that way to me at all. I read it more as naive than duplicitous.

In these types of situations (rightly or wrongly), I tend to fall back on the voting record.

Aiwendil has voted for known innocents on every Day, with the exception of yesterday when he voted for Farael. Farael has either voted for Aiwendil or not voted every Day, with the exception of yesterday when he voted for himself. In some ways, Farael's voting pattern is the less bold, because he has never been caught voting for a known innocent.

On Day 3, Aiwendil voted for Garin to put him level on two votes with Eomer. Garin was lynched and found to be innocent. Eomer, as we know, was a Wolf.

On Day 4, Aiwendil voted for tar-ancalime to put her level with Eomer on three votes. Eomer was lynched and found to be a Wolf. Tar-ancalime, as we know was innocent.

Farael did not vote on either Day. I would have expected a Wolf to vote when his fellow Wolf was in danger, unless he thought he was beyond saving. Clearly, that was not the case on Day 3 as Eomer survived. On Day 4, Farael strongly indicated that he was likely to vote for Eomer, but did not turn up to vote.

Both of their voting patterns look suspicious. But Aiwendil's the more so, I think.

[Celuien]

Okay SPM. You've convinced me.

Since I might not be able to come back before the deadline, I'll add my vote to Nilp's.

++AIWENDIL

If he turns out to be innocent, please, let's get Wolfarael tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

I too must cast my vote now, as I don’t know whether I will have a chance to return again today.

There's some very deep tactical thinking going on inside at least one of our remaining fiends.That certainly makes sense to me, although I would not put that kind of thinking past most of those still here, yourself included, Nilp. Nevertheless, it does tend to point more towards Aiwendil than Farael.

And it tends to support the general way my thoughts have been going today, so I will vote:

++ AIWENDIL

If he turns out to be innocent, please, let's get Wolfarael tomorrow.While I do not think it automatically follows that, if Aiwendil is innocent, Farael must be a Wolf, I agree that he will be looking the most likely candidate.

[Aiwendil]

While I do not think it automatically follows that, if Aiwendil is innocent, Farael must be a Wolf, I agree that he will be looking the most likely candidate.

Hear, hear! I'm sorry to see that we'll be wasting the DAY lynching an innocent, but I hope my death will at least serve some good. When you find that I'm innocent, you can lynch the real wolf - Farael. Don't let my death be in vain.

[Farael]

I am put now in a situation in which any thing that happens, it will look bad on me. That last comment by Aiwendil gives me pause, as why would a wolf that is soon to be lynched say it?

Well, maybe to give second-thoughts to those yet to vote... and in any case, not voting for him would be seen as suspicious anyhow

++Aiwendil

If he turns out to be innocent, I'd suggest looking at SPM.... I'm starting to get the feeling we've been had. Of course, it does not matter, you will most likely lynch me anyhow.

[Formendacil]

If he turns out to be innocent, I'd suggest looking at SPM.... I'm starting to get the feeling we've been had. Of course, it does not matter, you will most likely lynch me anyhow.

I begin to wonder that as well.... although about Nilp.

No, good Nilpadaga, I don't REALLY think you guilty. But if we miss our wolf yet again, then I'm thinking we REALLY need to change our strategy- and you've come down quite hard on Aiwendil- and I know you are bold enough to vote for Eomer if you are a Wolf.

I don't think that... yet. But if, by some chance, Aiwendil IS innocent, then you'd be my next place to look- not Farael.

[Formendacil]

The deadline draws near, and so I must vote:

++Aiwendil

And now, soon comes the night. I go to sleep, perchance to dream. I shall consider myself lucky if I last the night.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

You know the drill. Stop posting now. I'll have the death up as soon as I can.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

(The village center after a day of confusion and uncertainty.)

Saucepan Man: To lynch Aiwendil or Farael, that is the question.
Celuien: We should go with Farael...I think, perhaps. Or not.
Farael: Are you finally going to listen to me? I've been telling you since Day 1 that Aiwendil's a wolf.

(Village cautiously banters about who would make the better lynching candidate. Ad lib.)

Aiwendil: I swear to you I've been a faithful cook. I never once baked anyone in a pie or anything!
Nilpaurion Felagund: It comes to this, I must vote now and Aiwendil seems more likely. Good-bye, Aiwendil.
Village: (hesitatingly) ok...
Formendacil: Now how do we get rid of him?

(Gestures are made such as nail-biting and nervously twisting.)

Glirdan: Well, we could use the stake.

(Village captures Aiwendil and drags him to the woodpile where a stake is erected, for just such an emergency.)

(Aiwendil screams in protest. The village ignores him and continues with their deed.)

(Village stands back and someone drops a match onto the pyre. As it goes up in flames a terrible roar is heard.)

Saucepan Man: Can anyone smell that?
Farael: Yes! Yes, I can! It smells like burning wolf hair! Success!

The village had caught another wolf.

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)--Stabbed in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6
Aiwendil (Werewolf)--burned at the stake at the end of DAY 6