Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Caranlondien]

Just in case this helps anyone, here's a list of the votes so far:

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)

Of course I don't mean this as a substitute for reading the posts; The votes are meaningless out of the context of the discussion. And please let me know if I messed up somewhere!

I'm going to re-read and try to get my bearings...

EDIT: Cross-posted with tar-ancalime; I added her vote

[Caranlondien]

Sorry if I end up making a bunch of short posts, but since people are voting a lot now, I want to get out my thoughts as they occur, so that I can get feedback.

My first thought is that, yes, Eonwe's vote is annoying and unhelpful, but does it really seem like the tactic of a wolf? It seems more to me like someone who's bored with the game, which is more likely from an ordo. Any thoughts?

[tar-ancalime]

Some more non-vote-related thoughts based on today's postings:

"I don't eat sheep?" Well, neither do I but I don't feel the need to advertise it.

I believe that TGWBS has said that we have nine people who voted for Garin? (Formen #203)

Nah; tgwbs said that nine people received votes yesterday. Only five people voted for Garin. They were Garin, Eonwe, Celuien, Glirdan, Samwise.

Anyone else in favour of lynching another guy tonight? Rid the wolves of the male population and increase our chances of finding the Lover soon? Heheh. I bet the Ordo-Lover will vote for a female player tonight. So, starting with the girrrls: (Cailin #215)

This is tempting, but I think it's a little too early to do it on purpose unless we plan to continue methodically slaughtering the Y-chromosomes for a very long time--our village is very big, and it will take several Days of lynchings before we reach any kind of useful inequality. Also, if we do this, what's to stop the wolves from methodically killing off the females and destroying the numerical inequality? We should remember, too, that there's also guaranteed to be a female Lover--at this point we're still grasping at straws, and I think whomever we lynch is just as likely to be a Lover regardless of sex. But I'll file this idea away for later in the game.

I'll say now that there are a few individuals that have been so concise and well reasoned, and suspecting the same people I suspect, that I consider them to be (for the rest of toDay) above suspicion. They are: Eomer, Spawn, & tar-ancalime. (lmp #221)

Good heavens! Yesterday Garin approved of me; today it's lmp; this is unprecedented! I don't know what to do with myself! Evidently witchcraft agrees with me.


As for the talk of killing a male tonight I can see why this could help us weed out the lover wolf. How is this going to work if the other two wolves are female? (Valier #226)

We don't know this. The wolves could easily have been chosen randomly. All we know is that the Lovers are of opposite sexes.

I repeat. Samwise, Form, Lmp. You're all intelligent men. Are you telling us that it never occurred to any of you, until Lmp thought of it just now, that the wolf lover wouldn't tell all to his ord lover? (Lalaith #236)

Three cheers for Lalaith!

[Celuien]

Kath

Didn't say much yesterday.

Starts off today annoyed at being linked with a flip-flopping Farael and says she'll be back.

Linked to Farael by Eomer.

I'm not sure what to make of her. She hasn't really said enough to make me suspect or trust her. But the only case against her is made by the Anguirel accusation and Farael defense. I suppose she bears watching, but I'm uncomfortable voting for someone with such thready information.

I know I said I'd look at Glirdan and Farael next, but Eonwe just jumped out at me in the scroll review.

The vote for Valier today was truly bizzare, as was his edit comment to Gurthang (Gurthang, you are a luck hombre). I really don't like it, but I think that a wolf would need to be more careful than to call on randomness. Cara has a point when she says that we can't dismiss oddness too easily without giving wolves cover. Very strange, but my charge on strangeness yesterday didn't work out very well.

More later.

[SamwiseGamgee]

++ Lhunardawen

Her not getting us out of a double lynch situation yesterday and then trying to pass it off as though she hadn't slept a wink thinking about it just strikes me as very wolfish. There's been much discussion about it throughout the day, and my view hasn't changed since I raised it. In my view Lhuna is the most wolfish individual at the moment.

[Kath]

Why does everyone have to talk so much! Now I have about 2 pages to catch up on!

Oh, Celuien I said I'd be lurking if anyone wanted to question me about anything, I was doing a private analysis at the time. No one asked anything so I went once I'd done.

[Caranlondien]

I'm not ready to vote for Eonwe just yet. I'd say there are far more suspicious people.

I've been re-reading Eomer's posts. He looks kind of helpful, but much of what he says isn't backed up very well. (Hmm, the last time I said that about someone, it was Anguirel...) But Eomer isn't just speaking nonsense, he's actually trying to pass off claims that don't really make any sense. I can't tell if this is intentional deception, or if he's just overzealous and moving too quickly from thought to thought.

So, Eomer is a definite suspect in my mind.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I'm going by who has received the most votes so far, as those people seem to require our most urgent analysis. So, Lhuna:

Her cop-out on the double-lynching yesterDay is definitely weird. But I have to sympathize with her; If I were in the same situation, I would probably go for who I really thought was most suspicious, as it seems she did. As someone pointed out, she also knew that at least one other person was around and might take care of the situation. I'm certainly not letting her off the suspect list yet, though.

If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf.

I don't get why people made such a big deal about this quote. It seems like the sort of thing anyone might say out of frustration, and it certainly isn't a "confession," as some have claimed.

So, I'm not really sure what to think about Lhuna. I tend to suspect Eomer more than her.

[Kath]

Right, let's see the voting so far (thanks whoever made this!)

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)

Wow, that's a quadruple tie situation! And if 10 have voted that leaves, erm, 10 left? Excuse my maths :rolleyes: Oh well if that's right then there's plenty of time. However, I have to go soon and I would prefer not to leave it like this. Now I have skimmed the whole thread but only read properly up to post 205 so if there are discrepancies in what I say then that is why.

Eonwe and Naria have been extremely quiet, and what they have said has been both unhelpful and unreasoned. E.g. Eonwe's vote, which was purely random. Now that's acceptable on Day 1 but after all those posts toDay? He should have been able to form some suspicions.

Glirdan seemed to come under some fire due to his change in posting style, but everyone changes how they play every now and then and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Oh yes, Valier, I wondered if you could explain this so I understand it:
ok so I noticed that Thin you voted for Glirdan as well as I did because he's acting strange? Care to elaborate? As well Ang voted for him to save Garin. Thin your vote is suddenly looking strange...... You could be looking at me as suspisious to hide your own Fur..... Funny you suspect me AND Ang got killed last night....hhhhmmmmmmmm
Until I get that I have some suspicion over you for being plain confusing!

Eomer - well, the guy seems to want me dead which gives me a tendency to suspect him! But no, aside from that, while some posts are useful and logical and well thought out, some seem just . . . not. Someone said he was overly fierce but I don't see that, he just isn't consistently well reasoned. Still, that's hardly a crime so the benefit of the doubt will extend to him for toDay.

Farael - ah Farael. Apparently my partner in crime! Though he now suspects me himself. Apart from that flip flop I can see nothing in his posts to indicate anything wolvish.

Lhuna - now I can see the points against her. The refusal to stop a double lynch does look bad, and I'm hesitant to give her the benefit of the doubt over it. The constant apologies are a little grating it's true. I don't know though, while it looks suspicious I think it looks almost too suspicious. You'd think a wolf would realise what it looked like and concoct something to get themselves out of it. So, for toDay, I think I will consider Lhuna a misguided innocent.

Whilst writing this I was thinking about the Lovers. People have been suggesting that Nilp chose certain people to be them for amusement or some other reason and I think that's worth looking at. Unfortunately that leads me straight to spawn, who I wish to think of as entirely innocent for now, or it will throw the whole feel of this village out of whack for me! So I vaguely assumed for a moment that there was no female Lover (don't ask :rolleyes: ) and concentrated on the male one. Now I come again to Eomer, doesn't that seem like a perfect partnership to you? But I've just said I consider him mostly innocent! My brain really hurts toDay.

So, as I don't want to leave this as a quadruple lynch

++EONWE

Because of that vote that had absolutely no reasoning and so really is unacceptable for Day 2. Also, there is a tendency to concentrate on the loud members of a village because of course there is more from them to analyse, but this does allow the quiet ones to slip under the radar quite often. I think it is a good idea to force some of these to talk.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm back.

Just please give me some time to re-read the scroll. It's long, but hey! I'm quite used to it. Timezones, y'know. :rolleyes:

[Celuien]

Reviewed Glirdan and Farael. Neither really looks suspicious to me. Glirdan has shifted somewhat in style, but there's nothing to say that an innocent villager can't change strategy. Farael's a little flip-floppy, but otherwise acting pretty normally for ordo status. So I can't really suspect him right now either.

Which leads me to believe that the wolves are either in the quiet group or doing an excellent job of masquerading as innocent.

Updating the vote count:

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
11. Kath --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 3, Kath 1, Naria 2)

So Eonwe now leads. I'm not sure what to do. If I add a new candidate, it's probably a throw away vote. And quite truthfully, there's no one that I really suspect right now.

I can stay fairly late, so I'll probably continue to lurk as close to the deadline as possible, deliberating and trying to prevent double lynch mischief.

[Caranlondien]

I'm not sure what to do. If I add a new candidate, it's probably a throw away vote. And quite truthfully, there's no one that I really suspect right now.

That pretty much sums up my feelings right now. Well, not quite. I do suspect people, in fact, a lot of people. But I think we all suspect just about everyone... it's a matter of who one suspects most.

Well, I'm still suspicious of Eomer (and to a lesser extent, Lhuna). But I keep coming back to TGWBS, even though most of the villagers seem to have accepted his innocence. Of course I know that his behavior has been in character; in fact, it's been terrifically so. Which would be a perfect cover for a werewolf. Yesterday he was almost lynched; today he has faded from suspicion entirely.

I, too, can stay relatively late, so I'll hang around and see if I (or anyone else) come up with anything else.

[Caranlondien]

I'm beginning to worry that my suspicions of Eomer and TGWBS are just because I think they'd be the most frightening werewolves. :rolleyes:

Ugh, I'll go back and re-read some more...

[Caranlondien]

I think I made a mistake in my post about Lhuna:

As someone pointed out, she also knew that at least one other person was around and might take care of the situation.

The person I was thinking of actually wrote that Formendacil knew others were around and could break the tie. I can't remember if someone said the same about Lhuna; my mistake. But I still don't suspect her all that strongly.

[Lhunardawen]

I have read those posts. I take issue with your including yourself in that group; that's why I italicized "we."The operative word in that statement is wanted. Because surely dancing spawn didn't exactly vote to save Garin, did she, because Samwise had already taken care of it?


Lhuna, I don't think our votes can be ragarded as helpful when talking about saving Garin.I'm not quite sure I see what you mean. But surely our votes then are substantial, now that Garin is a proven innocent - right?

It's funny how people *coughcoughspawnGlirdancoughcough* jumped on my "I'm either a bandwagoning wolf or a noncommittal werewolf" statement. Seriously, is this how paranoid you guys have become?


Is this a confession - that you're a wolf whatever you do, eh? You know, as far as I know there hasn't been much suspicion of Samwise who 'climbed a Garin bandwagon'. That's because he saved us from a possible death of two innocents. That's odd. Normally people are suspected when they jump on bandwagons. Samwise jumped on one and now he's getting away with it. Funny how this game evolves.


I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour. How doesn't it? I was stubborn in the way you said it, and the apology was needed because my vote almost ensured an innocent's (from my point of view then, at least) lynching.

If it's the apology that's bothering all of you, fine then. I'm deleting the word "sorry" from my Ened-in-Nowhere vocabulary from now on.

I think I've pretty much explained myself already, and I've wasted too much time on that. I guess it's time for me to reveal my own suspect list. I still have to arrange my thoughts, anyway, so stay tuned. For now, please allow me to point out that two loudmouths are dead, and both are more or less particularly experienced players. What does this tell us?

[Celuien]

Well, I'm still suspicious of Eomer (and to a lesser extent, Lhuna). But I keep coming back to TGWBS, even though most of the villagers seem to have accepted his innocence. Of course I know that his behavior has been in character; in fact, it's been terrifically so. Which would be a perfect cover for a werewolf. Yesterday he was almost lynched; today he has faded from suspicion entirely.

I know. But I remember a tale of the Great Prophet's predecessors, all of whom invariably used the same method that TGWBS has now adopted in honor of our late, great leader. Those predecessors tended to be innocent, if insane.

It's true everyone could be a wolf. It's also true that no one really looks like a wolf to me now. Which naturally means that we're all wolves since we all look alike and some of the village is lupine. :p

Paranoia is setting in. I'd better make myself a nice cup of tea and sit down with my handy dandy Guide to Psychoanalysis.

[Celuien]

I must disagree, Eomer. If the non lupine lover knows the names of the wolves they could pose as a seer and lead us all on a merry dance, could they not? Or am I just being silly?

Could, but it wouldn't be too smart. Ordo-lover becomes instant wolf-bait, leading to the death of both lovers.

[Celuien]

I wonder. Samwise is starting to look odd with all the questions about the lovers. Almost as if asking for advice?

Then the business about being mad at lmp for mentioning the obvious that the wolf/lover could have told the ordo/sweetie about the identities of the other wolves. Annoyed at giving away a strategy being used by the lovers?

Rambling on here...

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna the Dark Elf's "Hmm..." List:

Disclaimer: You may disagree with some points or think that the list is insufficient, but these jump out at the author the most.

1. Eonwe.

His voting yesterDay was disturbing - he seemed all too eager to start a bandwagon for an innocent. And it wasn't even adequately explained.

ToDay's vote was even worse. He also sort of promised to be back, but he only did so to vote.

It's so, so wolvish that one is inclined to think that he's just an apathetic villager. Well, I'm sure we all know how bold wolves can be. And if ever he's not, I think we're better off without him if all he'll be doing is vote randomly every single time. Most possible recipient of my vote for toDay.

2. dancing spawn (Oh look, she's retaliating! She must be a guilty wolf!)

I just find it interesting that now you have voted for me because I did nothing about the double-lynch, when just yesterDay you agreed with me like this:

What a dilemma!

I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled. I feel the sincerity in their posts, and I know that all the jumpiness is only normal.

Lhuna, you speak sense. I agree with your last post there, and I don't know whom to vote...

Then you voted for Eonwe. That part makes sense, but what gets to me is that it seemed like you waited for someone else to break the tie as well, not wanting to have anything to do with it. Which is how I felt yesterDay. Doesn't it speak against you that you vote for a person for something you yourself seemed to have done?

But you've been very helpful (albeit a bit misguided, if I must say) so far, as you always have, and you would be a grievous loss to the village if innocent. Unfortunately, the opposite goes if you're a wolf.

3. Naria

Just because she's too quiet for my taste. History tells us of a quiet villager named malkatoj who escaped scrutiny for a long time due to an RL-induced quietness, and she turned out to be lupine.

4. Glirdan.

He's jumpy, but as I said yesterDay, that's normal.

What's not is this: It does look bad for Lhuna, I'll grant, but I wonder if we ought to maybe be taking a closer peek at Samwise?(Gurth)

A Lover trying to shift suspicion of he partner?? Hmm... I'm getting suspicious of Gurthang and Lhuna now. It wasn't Gurthang who said this, but my big bro Formendacil.

This may seem petty, but in situations like these even negligible mistakes can be used to subtly sway the village.

That's all I have for now. And here's to hoping that I haven't forgotten the Molecular Orbital Theory or Arrhenius acids and bases in the process, for the sake of my Chemistry grades.

So, without further ado:

++EONWE

[littlemanpoet]

You have been triple posting partly because I've been busy analyzing and preparing one post. Here goes.

One of the best werewolf strategies is to say as much that is true as you can, so that the few lies you must tell slip by. However, some basically honest people can't help themselves, and when they play werewolf, they confess more than they mean to. Cases in point (in my estimation):

#139: I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer; thank the Mod God he isn't. Remove the flowery adjectives from this and you have: "I was afraid that Anguirel might have been Seer" .... and now Ang is dead. This does not look good for Lhuna.


#140: If an innocent ord spots what he thinks is suspicious pairwork, is it a good idea to bring this up publicly? Might this not alert the wolves to the identity of the Seer pair?" - asking questions to poll the village, although the second is rhetorical. Seeing that Lal is so intelligent compared to a certain trio of males, why ask? You should know. These questions seem like they help the werewolves more than the villagers.

#140: Also, I am bearing in mind that wolves can now PM each other during the day as well as the night. I think a discussion on how this could change wolf tactics might be useful, what do the rest of you think?There she goes again, polling the village. Wolvish.

#147: I personally don't think any accusations about pairwork, however well-founded, should be made while both Seers remain alive. Then why have brought it up yourself 7 posts prior?

#154: we wanted to save Garin - we who? It doesn't make sense no matter which way you cut it, as tar said.

#172: Lhuna has been under a bit of suspicion because of her 'noble' vote. I usually suspect wolves to vote early on Day 1 to avoid getting caught up in tallying scores and giving innocents the final blow. I'm not really sure how I feel about Lhuna, and she seems different somehow. However, she was recently a first Day lynchee, if we're going to bring up other legendary werewolf stories anyway, which might explain her being a bit more careful. After all the werewolf games she's played, suddenly she's careful. I can think of only two reasons for it: she's either a werewolf or a seer.

#203: Personally, I'm hesitant to accuse anyone based on the time of their vote. Lhuna, for example, has been suspected of wolvery in every game she's played (albeit incorrectly each time), but because of the timezones, she's typically an early voter. In this game, because of advantageous timezones, she's naturally going to be voting near the end.Let me remind you all of what I shall call the SaucySyndrome. If it looks like an egg and feels like an egg and smells like an egg and tastes like an egg, it's probably an egg.

#215: Anyone else in favour of lynching another guy tonight? Rid the wolves of the male population and increase our chances of finding the Lover soon? But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

Cailin keeps defending Lhuna. Either she is guileless or desperately trying to keep her fellow werewolf from the gallows. Somehow guileless and Cailin don't seem to fit well in the same sentence.

#216: The interesting thought occured to me that the three main candidates up for lynching last night were male: Garin, Glirdan, & TGWBS. Is it possible, that in the flurry of tying/tie-breaking votes there at the end that one of our female players was trying to save- or did save- her lover? - worth keeping in mind. Not sure what to do with it otherwise.

Eonwe is pulling a Gil-galad. Plain as that. A possible vote getter from me.

I agree with Eomer that Gurthang does not seem suspicious. I'm not too sure about his suspicions of Farael & Kath.

It looks to me as if three villagers have been sort of looking out for each other: Lhuna-Cai-Lal - defending each other, excusing each other, coming up with reasons why the other probably isn't a werewolf. I am suspicious of all three, mostly of Lhuna, secondly of Cai, and the least of Lal, but still all three. Possible vote getters from me, any of the three.

Addendum: Celuien makes a good point about Samwise polling the village.

So my suspect list, from which I will pick my vote, has five names: Lhuna, Cai, Lal, Eonwe, & Samwise.

[Celuien]

Alas, sleep draws on my weary eyelids. I'm afraid I must vote.

++SAMWISE

who currently seems more suspicious to me than the others who have received votes so far. His village polling seems stranger and stranger the more I think about it.

For the record, my second choice would be Eonwe, although I think he's a bit too obviously fishy to be a wolf. However, if he continues odd tomorrow, I may vote for him.

And lmp makes an interesting point about Lalaith. Definitely bears watching.

You have been triple posting partly because I've been busy analyzing and preparing one post. Here goes.
I suppose I should try to think everything through more before clicking 'submit.' My brain is so disorganized just now. Must be the birthday cake.
;)

[littlemanpoet]

Seeing as Lhuna has rather indicted herself throughout the day, as well as not rescuing yesterDay's double lynch, I am inclined to consider Eonwe innocent, since she's bandwagoning. Her yesterDay vote for Lal is a different story, a safe, possibly wolf on wolf vote (which may have happened more than once yesterDay in a seemingly rather vain effort to create a sense of separation between themselves.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I'm scratching Eonwe and Samwise from my list of possible vote getters; Eonwe because Lhuna voted for him; I don't think he's a werewolf, and if Lhuna's the werewolf I think she is, she wouldln't vote for a lover Eonwe. Samwise is off my list because he voted for my primary suspect, Lhuna.

Now, Lhuna does make an interesting point in regard to Spawn agreeing with her yesterDay and accusing her for the same thing toDay. I will take a look at that and see what I make of it before I vote.

[littlemanpoet]

What a dilemma!

I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled. I feel the sincerity in their posts, and I know that all the jumpiness is only normal.

Lhuna, you speak sense. I agree with your last post there, and I don't know whom to vote...

As the tie has now been taken care of, I'll vote

++Eonwe

because his reasons were just a bit too weird.

Lhuna is making a spurious, defensive argument because Spawn gave her reason: the tie had been resolved already. Too bad, Lhunawolf.

++ Lhunardawen

Villagers who have yet to vote, please join me in getting rid of this self-indicting werewolf.

[Caranlondien]

Here's the vote record so far:

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
11. Kath --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 3, Kath 1, Naria 2)
12. Lhuna --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2)
13. Celuien --> Samwise (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
14. LMP --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)

EDIT: Forgot to put Samwise in the last one.

[Valier]

Well since I am unsure when this day ends I shall vote soon.

Ok well for the most annoying vote ever I must vote

++Eonwe

For I think even if he is an Ordo, we don't need one that votes by looking at who voted below them or tenth place or whatever, then casting a useless,safe vote.

[littlemanpoet]

Valier, your vote may not count if it is not properly bolded.

Five voters to go. Gurthang, Naria, Farael, Caranlondien, Formendacil.

All hope is not yet lost for toDay.

[Valier]

I was wondering if anyone out there left to vote is considering a double lynch? Could be a wolf in the waiting.

[Caranlondien]

Lhuna or Eonwe? Man, this is a tough decision. I'm tempted to vote for Eonwe just because, as Valier said, he's not being helpful at all. Lhuna has offered a defense of herself, which is more than one can say for Eonwe. On the other hand, if Eonwe were a wolf, wouldn't he offer at least some sort of defense? I have to decide soon... what time is the Day ending?

[Naria]

Naria is scarily silent

I want you to answer my question this time, please Thinlo. WHY AM I SO SCARY?? I remember asking the very same in a past village we were in and didn't get a response.

3. Naria

Just because she's too quiet for my taste. History tells us of a quiet villager named malkatoj who escaped scrutiny for a long time due to an RL-induced quietness, and she turned out to be lupine

Naria has been speaking nonsense, rudely said. Her posts, if they have something to say, it's covered with humour. I don't find that very trustworthy. I do find her more suspicious than Lhuna

I have said this before and will say it again. I'm not a chatter box like some of you and will not flood post with a whole lot of garbled bunk to confuse others. I come on and say what I have to say when it is needed or I feel the need to do so. On this particular day, however, I happen to be very sick! I came on earlier and made an appearance and went back to bed. I'm not asking you people to believe me(why would you in a game like this) but it obviously needed to be addressed.

Thinlo, I hope you realize now why my posts have been "nonsense" posts. However, I don't know where you got the 'rudely' part from. If my 'rudely' and 'nonsensical' posts make me more suspicious in your eyes than Lhuna, then I don't know what to do about that for ya.

That being said, I will go back to bed now--after I jump on this bandwagon!!

++Eonwe

And you thought I had nonsense posts.... :p :)

[Caranlondien]

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
11. Kath --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 3, Kath 1, Naria 2)
12. Lhuna --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2)
13. Celuien --> Samwise (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
14. LMP --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
15. Valier --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 5, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
16. Naria --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 6, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)

I'm certainly not in favor of a double lynch, and I hope those who vote after me will not bring one about. I still think Eonwe is an unlikely wolf (let's face it, if he were a wolf, he'd be more interested), but Lhuna seems somewhat suspicious. And I'd rather have an unhelpful ordo alive than a wolf, so I just can't justify voting for Eonwe merely for his annoying vote.

There are just enough votes left to lynch Lhuna, correct? Hmm I guess that places me in a suspicious position, but... I'm acting based one what I honestly think.

++Lhunardawen

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The village decided that Eonwe's antics was much too confusing for a village infested with Werewolves, and so they decided to kill the newcomer toDAY.

'So, how do we kill him?' asked Lhunardawen. Thunder rumbled. A few of the villagers looked up. Dark clouds were gathering in the mountaintop.

'I say we leave him up there in the mountain,' Glirdan suggested. 'If lightning strikes him, then he must be a Werewolf being punished by the Mod God.' The others nodded assent.

Caranlondien took her axe, tar-ancalime her broom, Eomer his clarinet, lmp his heavy hammer, and together they prodded the poor wayfaring stranger to the foot of the mountain.

The clouds have left the mountain, and now they approached Eonwe.

'He'll be struck by lightning!' Valier said anxiously. 'We found our first Werewolf!'

The clouds were now exactly overhead the lynchee. The lightnings struck the ground once, twice, many times, until finally, the Mod God tired of playing with the victim and sent a bolt at him.

After the shock, Eonwe still managed to stagger to the ground.

'He's going to transform now!' said lmp. 'Stand back, everybody!'

But he didn't.

'I'm okay,' he said. 'Can anyone get me a glass of water?'

The Mod God frowned. He had not killed the lynch victim on his first attempt. He sent another bolt, this time a stronger one.

After the second strike nothing was left of Eonwe but dust and ashes.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.

Those alive are:

dancing spawn of ungoliant, a laundress
Kath, a turtle-farmer
Lhunardawen, a Dark Elf (literally)
Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Glirdan, an unemployed person
Farael, an escaped mental asylum internee who suffers from chronic suicidal tendency and conspiracy theories
Eomer of the Rohirrim, the royal musician
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
the guy who be short, a Nilp fan, stalker and impersonator, also a fisherman
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Formendacil]

So Eonwe and Lhuna are the frontrunners of the night, are they?

Regretably, I don't think that either of them are guilty. Lhuna seems normal to me- thus far- although I will grant that there are reasons for suspicion.

Eonwe, on the other hand, has been nothing but unhelpful. However, I'd call him innocent- the Gil-galad of the game, so to speak. That said, however, I'd almost just as soon lynch as useless person for being useless. Best to get the confusion out of the way as soon as possible.

Kath is another one who was under a great deal of scrutiny earlier today, but who seems to have eased suspicions over the course of the day- or else more rational minds have discounted them as unlikely. All the same, the accusations of flip-flopping seem to ring true, and they give me cause to worry...

Naria, Eomer, Samwise, and Valier have all also received votes today, but for the moment I'm willing to leave them be. There may well be a Werewolf or two lurking in this group, but I don't think there's evidence enough yet to convict any of them.

With the uncertainty of the changed deadline being what it is, and needing to get to bed a bit earlier than I did last night, I think I'd be wise to vote now. Of the three candidates who've been voted for, and who I'm worried about, I think Kath the most suspicious.

Therefore,

++ Kath

EDIT: X-posted with Nilp. Sorry about that. Thought I had more time...

[Gurthang]

Well, just got in. I doubt I'll be able to get through all that's been said since I left, since it's about a hundred posts worth. I'll read what I can before voting.

From what I've seen so far, spawn seemed to have a good case against Lhuna, and LMP's vote yesterday still doesn't sit right with me. I'll have to see what I can scrounge up before Day ends.

[Gurthang]

Well, after reading a little, Farael is starting to catch my eye. Not just a few are suspecting him. Here's something that stuck out to me.

The wolves have been smart… Anguirel was a safe kill for them as not only it would implicate me into it, but it would also give enough circumstantial evidence for Kath to argue that it was an obvious set-up and thus she could not possibly be wolfish. Some villagers have already voiced that proposition and I shall suspect you all for it. While it’s not enough evidence to indict Kath, I think that if she were a wolf, she’d be very interested in killing Ang last night. If he was a seer, she could point out that he accused many people. If he was innocent (as he turned out to be) and left to live, he could have kept on being random and watering down the “too obvious of a setup” argument. If he had kept on accusing people with strong words, no-one could have said that his death implicated him too obviously…. As it’d implicate half the village as well.

Just seems to know too much how the wolves are acting. It's being spoken as fact, rather than hypothesis, which I don't like.

Kath seems to be handling suspicion calmly. Not necessarily an automatic innocent label, but it speaks in her favor.

[Gurthang]

Just got finished with the next page. Cailin's doing some good analysis, although I'm not seeing a lot of conclusions being drawn with all those words.

As SamwiseGamgee has already pointed out, Glirdan tries to make a case against me (post #235), yet misquoted at least once. I know it was Formendacil who said one of the quotes, and I don't remember typing the other (could be wrong, though :rolleyes: ). Not good when facts don't line up.

I'll vote soon.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Somewhere in the Philippines, Louis Ortal slumped in his desk.

'Oh, dear.' He sighed. 'Of all the persons to kill she had to be the NIGHT's target.' He sighed again. 'Oh, well. At least I'll prove myself to be a better protector (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=440604&postcount=442) than Formendacil.'

And so he went to the keyboard, and typed up the NIGHT's 'death.'

~*~

The four Werewolves converged on a hut near the outskirts of the village. They were looking around, looking for anyone who might see them. The coast was clear; unlike most villages, Ened-in-Nowhere had neither a Ranger nor a Hunter. One of the Werewolves kicked the door to the hut. The rotten board was smashed to pieces. The fiends went in to assassinate their NIGHT's target.

She was sleeping on her couch when the door to her hut was broken. She rose from her slumber and shot a look at the doorway. Four monstrous creatures stood there. She had no chance, even if she had a proper weapon. She rushed to the corner of her room and raised her fists to face her attackers.

Suddenly a bright light illumed the hut. Before her stood a figure robed in dazzling white. In his right hand was a flaming brand. His eyes burned as he stared at the beasts.

'You shall not take this life!' he commanded. 'Nay, neither shall you pluck out her eyes, as is customary to do with her kind.'

Turning to the woman, he said, 'Take my hand.' She took it, and together they went heavenward.

The next DAY, no trace was seen of dancing spawn of ungoliant.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.

Those alive are:

Kath, a turtle-farmer
Lhunardawen, a Dark Elf (literally)
Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Glirdan, an unemployed person
Farael, an escaped mental asylum internee who suffers from chronic suicidal tendency and conspiracy theories
Eomer of the Rohirrim, the royal musician
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
the guy who be short, a Nilp fan, stalker and impersonator, also a fisherman
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Farael]

I was fearing that... I guess we are a seer down, luckly we've got two. Alright, I guess it was expected for Spawn to be something other than an ordo... and she didn't seem too wolfish, I see she was not. I'll quickly go through her posts, but keep in mind that the timezones ailment that seems to bother most of this village is against me at this hour (aka, it's 3 AM over here)

Which reminds me, sorry for my no-vote yesterday, but I did not realize that the voting would be over so soon.

[Cailín]

Oh no. Spawn was taken from us. :( At least she did not suffer.

Spawn was not too vocal yesterday - I quickly scanned her posts and this certainly does look bad for Lhuna. I'm not sure whether she and her fellow Seer dreamed about her, but Spawn seemed quite certain of Lhuna's guilt. Add to that that Lhuna did little to make herself less suspicious - though I was still quite convinced of her innocence when I voted yesterDay - and many people were in favour of lynching her before, she seems a likely candidate toDay.

The other Seer must lay low now and I'd advise all my fellow villagers to not speculate who s/he might be.

I shall go over yesterDay's voting after breakfast.

[Thinlómien]

A seer dead. Not very good for the village.

Not very good for the village, if we think about this: two days played, two innocents lynched. One innocent killed and one of our seers killed by wolves. The wolves must be laughing by themselves.

I know we have a big village and lots of people, so it isn't a miracle that we haven't been able to catch a wolf in two days. But anyway, now it's the third day and I presume everybody agrees with me, that today a wolf should be hanged.

I think one of the biggest problems of this village is that we don't work together. We're divided in several factions disputing with each other and it's always only by one or two votes majority that an innocent is lynched.

Now, I'm not saying that we shouldn't have different opinions or different suspects. I'm just saying that we villagers communicate with each other quite fruitlessly and there should be a change.

edit: xed with Cailín

[Thinlómien]

I want you to answer my question this time, please Thinlo. WHY AM I SO SCARY?? I remember asking the very same in a past village we were in and didn't get a response. This time you're scary, because you're silent. That makes me uneasy.

However, I don't know where you got the 'rudely' part from.
I seem to be good at giving people wrong impressions. The "rudely" wasn't about your posts; it was like: "To say it rudely, she posts nonsense." I'm sorry if my unfluent English causes confusion.

I looked quickly through spawn's posts. Lhuna was the only one she really expressed being suspicious about.

[the guy who be short]

I don't trust any of you.

I promise an analysis of spawn in a few hours. Anybody else wishing to analyse her, feel free. Remember, the more people we get looking over what she's said, the more chance we have innocents analysing her, the greater the chance we can trust what we can read. Ideally, we'd have six analyses to guarantee one innocent in there, but this is a bit much to ask.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

'If anyone's interested,' said the Mod, 'I have inserted a proper death scene for Eonwe.'

There was a deep, vast silence.

'Okay, get back to playing.'

[tar-ancalime]

You know, this is just off the top of my head here, but spawn may have been killed in a wolves' attempt to re-even out the balance of sexes:

We went into last Night with three dead men, leaving eleven women and only eight men alive. Now, yesterday Cailin suggested that we systematically lynch men, unbalancing the village enough to make it easier to pick out one of the Lovers. I countered that by saying it was an interesting strategy but likely too early, as the village is still very large.

It could be that the wolves disagreed with me and decided to even things back out. Why? I think the wolves already know who the traitor is among them. I think they're going to let that person live for a while, though, because as long as there are Lovers there is an added element of confusion among the villagers. Having the Lovers alive at this stage of the game helps the wolves; and if they know which of their own is against them, it will be easy enough for them to kill that person off when it becomes necessary. They'll eliminate their internal threat and take down another villager to boot. I propose that we will see this happen when the village finally lynches a wolf. Until then, though, the wolves' safety is enhanced by keeping the Lovers alive. And in the meantime, keeping a more balanced village population lessens our chances of isolating one or both of the Lovers in a shrinking pool of candidates.

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?

[Cailín]

I think one of the biggest problems of this village is that we don't work together. We're divided in several factions disputing with each other and it's always only by one or two votes majority that an innocent is lynched.

I do agree with this, Thinlomien. Hopefully, with a few less villagers communicating may become a bit easier.

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

I was the first to propose such a sensible strategy. However, I was under the impression that Nilp would have ensured a wolf team consisting of as many males as females. Ergo, the chance of finding a wolf would be much higher when lynching a suspicious male than a suspicious female.

That might be a bit presumptuous, I admit, I'm thinking too much about what I would have done were I the Mod of this game.

Cailin keeps defending Lhuna. Either she is guileless or desperately trying to keep her fellow werewolf from the gallows. Somehow guileless and Cailin don't seem to fit well in the same sentence.

:D You have the truth there, littlemanpoet, I cannot honestly claim to be an artless person. However, you missed another option. At that point in the game, I saw no reason to find Lhuna any more suspicious than anyone else.

But now things are different. Lhuna's vote for Lalaith never seemed incriminating to me. Neither did it seem so to Dancing Spawn at first, as Lhuna pointed out herself yesterDay. At the start of Day 2 however, Spawn seemed to be making a 180-degree turn, blaming Lhuna for her non-committing vote. This smells like a Seer trying to subtly point out a wolf to the rest of the village. I am not 100% certain, but I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

[Cailín]

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

This seems more likely than the wolves trying to balance the sexes. They seem to have no reason to let the Lover live that long: they're with four and can afford a loss.

However, I somehow do believe they saw a Seer in Spawn. See my previous post.

[Farael]

Given my limited time, I’ll go through her posts and see who she defends, who she accuses and how strongly she does. I think it’s fair to guess that if she defends/accuses someone strongly, it might be someone she’s dreamt about. Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)
Day 1

Post 7
Her first post. Makes a few “in character” comments and then answers a few things that have been said before her. Nothing too remarkable.

Post 17
Answers more concerns… nothing I can see as a hint of having found a wolf or an ordo.

Post 30
Defends Valier and Cailin.

Post 124 (there was another post before that but it was just a comment that she was around and she’d be back after she caught up with all that had happened)… (and sigh, she commented on everyone. Ok, here we go… I won’t add her comments on the dead ones)

Disregards Cailin’s and TGWBS’s vote as it’s based in occupations

Finds Lailath’s vote somewhat suspicious

Finds Kath’s vote somewhat weird.

Thinks that Tar-a’s vote was well reasoned, although she disagrees with her.

Does not find Celuien’s vote suspicious

Finds LMP’s vote disconcerting but not exactly suspicious

Thinks Glirdan has not been far too out of his normal self, but expresses some concern over his vote.

Thinks I’m acting as expected, although she disagrees with what I think

Thinks that Naria is also being her usual self, although Spawn doesn’t like her vote

Thinks that Caranlondien is not suspicious

Does not like Valier’s vote but thinks that she cannot tell much from it.

Post 128

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense, votes for Eonwe (but obviously, she has not dreamt of him as we know he’s not a wolf.

Post 129
Jokes about SamwiseGamgee making a wolfish slip-up

Post 132
Jokes around with Formen.

End of the day, my thoughts so far:

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

For possible wolves:
Lailath
Kath


For possible innocents:
Valier
Cailin
Lhuna

Day 2
Post 151
(Goes through Anguirel’s posts, I won’t comment on that but on her thoughts about other villagers)

Thinks that we should not disregard our suspicions of Kath after the night’s death.

Mildly defends Glirdan

Post 164
Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

Post 166
Analyzes Naria, Seems to think that Naria is innocent first, but then says that “a horrible thought just occurred her” and that Naria might not be as innocent as she thought.

Post 175
Explains Thinlomien that Naria did not slip up on something she said.

Post 193
Still argues that we should not get our minds off Kath

Defends Naria again against accusations of a slip up

Then she answers something Lhuna said, but I’m not sure what she means.

Post 199
Tells Eonwe to explain more her thought process

Wants to hear more from Naria

Post 207
Again comments that we should not get our sights off Kath

Post 212
Votes for Lhuna based on a comment made by her (Lhuna) and the arguments made by other villagers.

End of day

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect, and given that there are 4 wolves, there are still plenty of villagers and another seer, it’s (very) likely that Spawn did not want to risk voting for a wolf and blowing up her cover so soon… and thus she voted for her most likely to be a wolf unknown.

Now, I’m not saying that Lhuna is NOT a wolf for sure… all I’m saying is that Spawn probably did not dream of her on Night 2 and it sure looks as if she was pointing at Kath very subtly, yet very consistently.

Ok, that’s all I have for now…. I think that Kath is a wolf and I shall vote for her today. I ask of you fellow villagers, go through Spawns posts by yourself and tell me if I’m wrong…. I’m sure you will agree

P.S: That was not a seer hint or anything like that.... it was just the confindence that comes from a well done reasoning.

[tar-ancalime]

from Cailin:

I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?


Interesting idea. Are you saying that the Seers decided spawn should "alert the village," even to the point of sacrificing herself? Because I agree with you that spawn's pursuit of Lhuna yesterday looks like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. However, I'd discounted that out of hand because, well, it looks a little too much like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. I would have imagined spawn to be more subtle than that. But there it is--spawn is dead, Lhuna is alive, we still have a Seer, and as for my previous post, I did say it was a crackpot theory. It may be that the simplest solution is the best. Lhuna? Care to convince us otherwise?

I still think there may be something, even a tiny nugget of something, in my crackpot theory--I really think the wolves (a) know who the Lover wolf is, and (b) think it's expedient at this point to keep the Lovers alive...for a while. They're in no danger yet, and as long as we villagers are talking about Lovers they've got conversations in which to hide.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)

No, the Seers were in communication with each other, but they chose one person to dream about each Night. That means we don't have double the amount of dreams, but tthe dreams spawn already had are not lost with her death.

You are very sure that spawn did not dream of Lhuna. I'm not sure I follow your logic here--even if I concede the point that spawn thought Lhuna was innocent (which I'm not ready to do, in addition to the fact that we don't know what the other Seer thought at the time), it can be just as important for Seers to build up a list of proven innocents as to target wolves. We don't know what the Seers' strategy was, nor what it will be now that there is only one left.

[Cailín]

Farael... how do you explain this if Spawn did not dream of Lhuna:

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense,

Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

You may have a point with regards to Kath... I don't know. However, Spawn was not the only Seer and it may be likely that her fellow Seer did find Lhuna's vote suspicious.

You managed to confuse me further Farael! Argh. Maybe Lhuna and Kath both are wolves, would that not be the easy solution? I shall have to consider this more, but I am hesitant to write my thoughts because I don't want to aid the wolves in finding the second Seer. Maybe I should stick to analysing voting patterns.

[Farael]

Well Tar-a, I don't think it's logical to make a list of known innocents this early on the game.... those lists "make themselves" as the seers choose the wrong people to dream of. Why in Eru's name would they dream of someone they think innocent when they (obviously, as spawn did) had some suspects?

The logic is quite simple, actually. And the fact that the seers have only one dream makes it more likely. On Day 1 there should be plenty of suspicious people to dream of... why dream about someone that either of the seers thinks Innocent?

And remember, I'm saying that Spawn thought that Lhuna was innocent ON DAY 1... that changed on day 2, but it was too late for her dream anyway. Spawn did not mistrust Lhuna until the end of the day, which means (to me) that she was swayed during the day by the arguments made. And she decided to vote for Lhuna rather than Kath (whom she knew a wolf... or so my theory goes) because the wolves had already ridden themselves of someone who had voiced loud suspicions of Kath and it's too early to sacrifice a seer for a wolf. Thus, she hinted subtly that we should not forget Kath. When she said so, I thought that spawn was just sort of agreeing with me.... now I think that it was even more than that, she was saying that Kath is not innocent as we may think her to be.

I know I have a bit of a reputation for having crazy theories, but think about it.... Spawn did not suspect Lhuna until mid day 2.... and she has steadfastly suspected (and hinted that we should not think innocent) Kath.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin:

Those two comments by Spawn were made on the same day!!! A seer would not change her views of a wolf she's going after mid-day. I'm not trying to say that Lhuna is not a wolf though and you might be on to something when you say that maybe both women are wolves... but I think that Spawn's change of mind during the day shows that she was going after a "wolfishly looking" unknown rather than a known wolf. There is no reason for a seer who has chosen to go all out against a wolf to change their views mid-day. If anything, it will make her accusations seem like a flip-flop.

[Cailín]

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

I see now Spawn did not immediately attack Lhuna, but she did shortly after she made her first post. I can think of merely two reasons why Seer-Spawn would attack anyone so strongly. It is not like her to be very outspoken in her accusations anyway:

1) She did not believe Lhuna to be wolvish at all and wished to delude the true wolves.

2) She was almost convinced to the point of sure that Lhuna is a wolf. She must have known that she would be a likely target - she is always a likely target - for the wolves had Lhuna been lynched and found guilty. I just don't believe she would be so easily swayed by the other villagers.

--

Your ideas concerning Kath are not at all far-fetched, Farael, but I think you are dismissing the Lhuna case too easily.

[Farael]

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

If that's the case, then I must correct my notes. Still, I think that

*Spawn seemed to be rather swayed by the villagers about Lhuna

*Spawn was not swayed at all with regards to Kath, even if some people argued in Kath's favour.

*Odds are against the Seers having found two wolves (specially now that I know they only get one dream/night)

Now, I still find Kath more suspicious than Lhuna... and I think the big fuss made about Lhuna's vote is misguided. Sure, Lhuna was (Hope you forgive me... and that the ProphetNilp does not smite me in a fit of brotherly love) pretty silly as it would (and did) make her look as lupine as it gets.... but that's the only strong piece of evidence we have against her

Her edgyness can be attributed at the fact that many people were suspecting her.

Now, I don't want to defend Lhuna, but it seems the best way to explain my thoughts about Kath... I think that one of them is a wolf (at least) and I think that it's more likely than Kath is a wolf than Lhuna. It might just be me, but I think it's better to take a risk trying to clear the air now rather than later....

Here's what I propose, feel free to reject it:
*We lynch Kath, whom I still think is the most suspicious

*If Kath is a wolf, we celebrate

*If Kath is not a wolf and Lhuna does nothing to change our collective minds, we lynch her

*If neither Kath nor Lhuna turn out to be wolves, I shall start thinking that I'm not as smart as I feel right now.....

*If either is a wolf.... it will be up to each of us to decide whether or not we think it's likely that both will be. I am uncertain on that matter and so I can't really plan for it.

I will get a lot of heat for "trying to sway the village" but I have my reasons and I'm sticking to them. If anyone can come up with a better plan, speak up.... It might be a little early on the day for me to propose a plan as wolves could latch on to it, create a bandwagon and hide in the background noise..... but I am "so certain" that either Kath or Lhuna are a wolf and pretty much convinced that Kath is rather than Lhuna that I am hoping you all will agree.

Now, THAT WAS NOT A SEER HINT. Please, note that I wrote ""so certain"" (in between "" thingies that I can't recall how they are called) and "pretty much convinced".... I'm basing this certainty and convincement on my reasoning, in which I believe strongly.... And if you don't think I am, maybe you should learn your history and read up on the Eighteenth time a village has been infected by wolves *hint, hint*... and sorry Nilp but it IS in itallics... so it's allowed, right?

[Lalaith]

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect,

Farael, I'm not sure if I've understood you correctly here, but if I have, I'm not sure I agree with you. If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

As for what we should do today, I'd started combing through spawn's posts this morning but I now find I've been called away. By the time I get back, a lot more people will be around (I expect) and a consensus may already have been reached. Oh well, I'll try to be as helpful as I can when I get back.

But, oh woe! Four innocents gone, including our incomparable Seer-spawn - this is not looking good, villagers....

[Farael]

If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

You forgot to say Why, Lailath.... and let me remind you that you, unlike Lhuna, were suspected by Spawn on day 1

EDIT: Ok, now I get why... but I think most mods will roll a dice or something... maybe Spawn was an exception as she and ModNilp seem to get along pretty well but.... to choose everyone by hand? Too unlikely.

[the guy who be short]

Day 1


Post 7

~

Post 17

Jokingly reprimands Cailin for unreasoned vote. Nothing serious, as it wasn't really her fault and she had nothing to go on.

Post 30

Says Valier and I are probably not lovers. Damn right. We're not that stupid, are we, love? ;)

Ambiguous regarding Cailin.

Post 124

Cailin, Eomer, TGWBS, lmp, Valier - ambiguous about us.

Says Lal could be seen as suspicious due to safe vote.

Says Kath's vote was weird.

Disagrees with tar-a, but says her vote is the best reasoned.

Celuien - says she doesn't look suspicious.

Glirdan - confused regarding him, but says he acts normal.

Farael - says he's acting normal.

Caralondien - not suspicious.

Post 128

Votes Eonwe. Says Lhuna makes sense.

Post 129

~

Post 132

~


Day 2


Post 151

Says Anguirel's death could point to Kath and Eomer, and could not.

Says Ang's death could make Glirdan look bad, but she doesn't support this theory.

Post 164

Says Lhuna needs closer examining. Points at her "I was afraid Ang may have been a bold Seer" statement.

Says Form's tie-making is interesting and risky.

Post 166

Not suspicious of Naria, because she's acting normally.

Post 175

~

Post 193

Points out to Eomer that Kath had spoken before Ang accused her. She also had to point this out to tar-a.

Tells Lhuna that votes saving Garin don't tell us much.

Post 199

Snaps at Eonwe for not suspecting anybody, but says she won't vote again because there are better candidates. [Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

Wants to hear from Naria.

Post 207

Says wolves would not bother killing people to set up others, rather than trying to get Seers. Points at Kath or Lalaith and Cailin.

Says Ang probably died for protecting Garin and not for suspecting Kath.

Post 212

Votes Lhuna based on previous evidence, new behaviour, and a twisted quote.



Conclusion

I believe spawn did not dream of Lhuna on Night 2 and find her a wolf. I find it likely that she dreamt of Eonwe, whom she chastised for being unhelpful, but refused to vote for again. I see this as an attempt to get him to talk more and be a better asset to the village, now that she knew him to be innocent.

So, that meant we have only two useful dreams, as the Eonwe dream was wasted. From spawn, we can hope only to find one. As there is nobody she strongly defends, I see attempting to do so as a fruitless, if not dangerous, exercise.

So why was spawn killed? A threatened Lhuna wolf certainly looks likely, but perhaps they only wanted to get rid of the gender imbalance and chose somebody sensible who suspected few people and was under no suspicion herself.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

[the guy who be short]

A few cross-posts here.

Farael, you make sense, and you do not make sense. The sense you have made is enough to assuage my suspicion of you.

You make sense in saying Lhuna was not dreamt of. 'Twould be most unlikely.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.

But still, I don't think her accusation is anywhere strong enough to condemn Kath. She remains wholly ambiguous.


No wolves were dreamt of.

[Cailín]

[Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

I find this wholly unlikely.

1) Spawn is not the only Seer.

2) I find it very hard to believe - much harder to believe in fact, than a dream of Kath - the Seers would dream of Eonwe on the second night.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I am not saying you are wrong, but you risk underestimating people like Kath and the Seers. Loudmouths like Garin and TGWBS ( :p ) are far too good at getting themselves lynched early on, while players like Kath, newbie Caranlondien and Lalaith are better at staying undercover.

Besides, you are disagreeing with yourself here.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

That's the way of the game, but you are definitely all flip-floppy and ambiguous right now.

[Farael]

I beg to differ TGWBS.... Spawn had voiced worries about Kath during Day 1.... and the loudmouths are more often than not, innocent. Let's face it, we both know that Wolves usually hide in the shadows... or at least, most wolves in the pack do.

Kath fits the bill to the T, and Spawn's constant reminder that we should not forget about her seems like a subtle hint that we should lynch her... subtle enough that it won't raise suspicions by the wolves, but clear enough so that we can follow it if she dies.

And she's dead, thus I say we follow it!!!

[the guy who be short]

Fine. I, personally, will look up the spawn quotes on Kath. Because I don't trust either of you. :)

And it's hard not to be ambiguous when spawn was so ambiguous, and my posts thus far have been an analysis of her words.


I shall, in fact, use direct quotes. There's little material on the subject. All quotes from spawn.

Kath's vote seems somewhat weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Because (though I think this is repeating a past argument) if he's a wolf then better to get rid of him now, and if he's an innocent we won't be worrying about whether he's a wolf for the rest of the game! A hedging your bets argument it is I'll admit, but it's all I have.

As she admits, she repeats almost exactly the same words as tar-a in her past life. That reasoning got her in a bit of trouble then, but she turned out to be an innocent. Something in Kath's voting feels funny especially because if Eomer is innocent, it's good to keep him around. Post 124.


Why was Anguirel killed? What did he say?

#21, pointed at Kath and Eomer.
"For one, I don't like the stamp of that musician fella."
"The varmint claims to have disguised a were-army of hedgehogs under green shells and hidden them in a turtle farm. What d'ye have to say to that, Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat Wandering Horde? Ha ha!" ~Ang

"I don't think Ang's early mention of Kath has anything to do with anything. I assumed from the beginning that it was just Day 1 histrionics, and that's why in my summary I barely mentioned it. And now that he's been proven not to have been a Seer, it can't possibly mean anything. She hadn't spoken yet--he was pulling her name out of the air. She may well merit a closer look, but not for this reason." ~tar-ancalime

Actually, at the time when Anguirel mentioned Kath, she had already spoken.

I think it's probable that the wolves don't want to waste their time for frame-ups when there are two Seers around. The sooner the wolves get rid of the Seers, the less incriminating information there is. Possibly makes Kath or Eomer look bad. Post 151

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

I find that funny, too. I'd like to point out that not all Nightly deaths are frame-ups. The wolves want to find the Seers, and since there are two of them now, it's even more important for the lycans to quickly get rid of the them. I just don't understand why wolves would see so much trouble in framing someone up. Anguirel might have been killed because of him defending Garin or whatever, but it's weird that these two say that the wolves obviously set Kath up. Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused.

You're basing all your suspicions on these three posts. Constant reminders? I see only mild accusations. This has made me think the worse of you both.

[Farael]

Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.

And why so shrill? have we stepped on a nerve? we accuse Kath and you accuse us.... why TGWBS?

[Cailín]

Fine. I, personally, will look up the spawn quotes on Kath. Because I don't trust either of you.

The feeling is mutual. :)

TGWBS, if you read my posts correctly (or maybe as I intended them), I do not really believe Spawn dreamt of Kath either. I think she dreamt of Lhuna.

I just really don't think the Seers dreamt of Eonwe.

Edit: cross-posted with Farael, who is beginning to act a little odd.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin.... might be the lack of sleep that I'm not expressing myself properly. I'm just annoyed that I bothered to add a lovely "Post X" before each comment and he went back and must have missed some as I recall to have found more than 3 quotes from Spawn with regards to Kath.

Sorry for the mixup anyway, and now I AM off to bed.... or so I keep telling myself.

[the guy who be short]

I must go, but I want to raise a final, very controversial point before I do so.


We should systematically double lynch the male gender until we find the lovers.

There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.


Think about it. There is a 100% chance that there is a lover in the male gender. By lynching 2 men today, we have a 25% chance of finding him. If this fails, we try again tomorrow. We have a 33% chance of lynching him. Overall, we stand a 50% chance of getting the lovers in the first two days!

Some may not view the lovers as as important as the wolves, but they are dangerous dissidents - especially the innocent lover, who appears as an innocent to the Seer. We can bring the enemies of the village down from 5 to 3 rather quickly.


And this is just thinking of the lovers. That maths doesn't count the fact that there are likely to be wolves in the 8 men too.

Each man, at present, stands a 2/9 chance of being a wolf. This means there is an 87% chance (1 - [7/9]^8) that there is at least one wolf in those eight men, possibly two, three or even four.



Taking this into account:

We have a 25% chance of lynching the lovers and a 22% chance of lynching a wolf this day.

If we get nothing, there are 6 men, 9 women left. There is a 4/15, or 26% chance of a wolf, and a 33% chance of a lover.


There's a lot of maths, but overall, if we double lynch all men, we have an over 50% chance of catching village dissidents in two days!

So, is it worth the cost of all those innocents?

I say yes. We increase our overall chances of winning, villagers, if we follow this strategy. More importantly, it is far easier to find wolves once we have got one wolf to work from.

[littlemanpoet]

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Maybe it was well done reasoning. But it was all based on your summaries of posts instead of quotes. How can we be sure you summarized correctly, or even with innocent intent? It looks more like a trumped up story than solid reasoning, as there are not real facts in your post.

And villagers, let's please stop casting votes based on what annoys us? Annoyances are highly subjective and tell us little about the suspected person, a lot more about ourselves. So Eonwe wasn't being helpful; he wasn't causing any real problems either. We should be more concerned about villagers that are casting suspicion where it ought not to rest than people who vote on a whim, or declare themselves werewolves. Such folks are distractors. As to Guy, his declaration that he is a werewolf is only one fact out of many facing us. Let's please not let it carry more wait, nor less, than it should.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I've scanned everything so far. Not read carefully, just scanned ... to get a general sense of the arguments.

On Farael: 2 possibilities occur to me:

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

2. He could be a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love.

I suggest that we double lynch Lhuna and Farael today, and clear up this confusion.

[tar-ancalime]

from Guy: There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.

This isn't the whole story. Your Day 6 should read: 0,6 because when we finally get the male Lover (assuming we get him last, worst-case scenario) the female Lover dies too.

That leaves 6 people. Real worst-case? Three innocents, three wolves. Game over.

I think you have an intriguing idea, but it's one that we can't let play out to this conclusion.

This is assuming that at least three wolves are women, which is unlikely, but if the wolves were chosen at random it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[Farael]

Ok, I lied... I haven't gone to bed yet, but what keeps me up is not really werewolf related.

Anyway,

LMP you are a smart man.... there's no denying that. But I never meant my posts to be The One List of Evidence..... I bothered to add "Post number" so that you all could go back and look at it. Humor me, do it... you will find (I hope) the same thing I did. Just make sure you go through all the posts I mentioned and you look carefully enough. Remember, this is a game of details.

And if you think I'm the male lover, why don't you lynch me and Kath? or Lhuna and Kath? if Lhuna and I are the lovers, then we'll die together.... but given that at least I'm innocent, I know it won't happen. As I (tried to) show before, I will let myself be lynched if it's for the better of the village... but I don't think that I have been rendered useless just yet. Maybe this is another of my crazy theories and feel free to prove me wrong. But until you do, I will still have Kath as my prime suspect and Lhuna as a possibility for later on....

Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst.

Furthermore, what if the Seer is male?

I think it's too early for TGWBS's plan.

[littlemanpoet]

Obviously, being in a werewolf village is a gamble in itself. However, playing the odds with possible percentages has a real chance of backfiring. The only number that I trust in your maths analysis is the 100% for a male lover. That one's obvious. But all the other numbers could prove disastrously wrong. Maybe all the werewolves are women. Think about it: the Mod God probably randomly picked roles first, getting his 2 werewolves and 2 seers, and then from the werewolves picked a lover, and from the innocents (minus seers obviously) picked the ordo lover. That means that, probabilities nonetheless, there could be all women werewolves. Obviously I can't know this, but I don't want to discount it either.

Far better to go with a thorough combing of every word said by everyone. I don't trust in probabilities, though your offering of them gives me hope that you're not a werewolf yourself.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think the wolves are, for the most part, staying out of this Seer talk. They want the villagers to get in a tangle all by themselves.

I think we should double-lynch Kath and Lhuna. The day after, Glirdan and Farael.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yeah, I like defending myself. If I didn't you'd say I was hiding, so here goes.

If 0 wolves were voted for on Day One, then they start looking to villager defences to find a Seer. Anguirel defended Garin, so they kill him.

If 1 wolf voted for on Day One, they are scared of Seer dreaming about said wolf. Example: If LMP is a wolf, they kill Eomer or Gurthang because they voted for him. This could only have been the case if Glirdan was the one wolf (which was my mistake).

I have no idea where I got that 0 or greater-than-1 idea. It was a mistake. I was thinking out loud. Wolves generally don't make stupid mathematical mistakes like that. If I am a wolf I don't make mathematical posts because I'm not clever at it. Because I'm innocent I can afford to just type whatever the hell I'm thinking at that time. I think that stupid post I made actually speaks in my favour!

Anyway, the answer could be obvious: Anguirel was killed because Glirdan feared him. Or: we were totally wrong in our Day One voting.

Anyway...

Tar, I referred to Anguirel's post #21 and not his post #69. He accused both me and Kath there. I'm not denying that Anguirel's death implicated Kath, me and Glirdan. In fact, that was my whole point. I was asking why Farael defended Kath and not me when we were both mentioned in #21; and I asked why certain villagers were quick to point out that Anguirel's death made Kath look bad, while at the same time ignoring me and Glirdan.

I don't understand what is wolvish about that.


* And a quick response to Glirdan. Don't play dumb with me, laddie! You know fine well what I was asking you. I'll say it again: If you are innocent, then why did the wolves not gleefully accuse you on Day Two, considering Anguirel voted for you? Seems very odd to me.

[SamwiseGamgee]

So, Spawn was a seer. This is a suprise to me, to be honest, but I'm not sure it won't also be one for our lupinous assailants. I'm inclined to agree with Tar-A in post #294 that it may have just been a ploy by the wolves to even the ratios of sexes. This then makes me think 2 things: (1) the wolves are equally split between the sexes or (2) the wolves are all male. Pure speculation, that, but just a thought. I certainly am not willing to support TGWBS's suicide pact yet, but it's something to bear in mind, I think. Playing the odds on day three whiffs somewhat of desparation, and we're not desperate yet. (Are we?) I do agree with TGWBS that the lovers do need to be taken seriously, though.Some may not view the lovers as as important as the wolves, but they are dangerous dissidents - especially the innocent lover, who appears as an innocent to the Seer. (TGWBS)

My inclination to think Spawn a random kill means that I'm less suspicious of Kath than others. Not, however, totally unsuspicious. For two days now Kath's been at the wrong end of some pretty serious grilling. Would the wolves expose one of their number to that? It seems like the perfect set up, but it could also be the perfect play! I'm not sure, though I'm also loathe to rule any possibility out.

As for Lhuna: I'm still very suspicious of her. I've yet to hear anything from her to displace my original suspicions and now that Spawn's been revealled as a seer her support of my original premiss makes me think I m ay be onto something.

[Lalaith]

Quickly popping in here -
I just want to say that I don't think we should lynch anyone before they've had a chance to say something. The reason should be obvious....

[SamwiseGamgee]

Agreed in principle, Lalaith, but sometimes that's just not possible because of the timezones. I guess what I'm saying is that an early vote shouldn't necessarily be seen as damning.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You're right Lalaith.

More fun with maths (much simpler this time):

We should begin the double-lynches. They ensure that more kills are made by the village than the wolves. They ensure that we have greater chances of catching wolves.

And my picks for today, though I agree we should wait to hear from them, are Kath and Lhuna.

I don't think games should include double-lynchings, but since we are 'blessed' with them, it would be folly to not maximise their benefits.

[Cailín]

You know, Eomer has a point about the double-lynching thing. I mean, who says it is beneficial for the village to drag things out? The wolves only would have more time to confuse us.

That said, I don’t wish to jump to conclusions yet. There are many villagers we still need to hear from and this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that.

[SamwiseGamgee]

this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that. (Cailin) What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.

[Celuien]

So spawn was one of the Seers...

Three possibilities:

1. Kath and/or Lhuna are wolves who killed spawn for her suspicion of them.
2. Evening the male/female ratio, as suggested previously.
3. Wolves setting up an innocent Kath/Lhuna and happened coincidentally to find a Seer.

I agree with the double lynching plan, though not with TGWBS's version of lynching all males. Both because of the previously mentioned problems with numbers of remaining villagers and the possibility of killing the remaining Seer,
but also because it diverts attention from my side of the divide too well. I would be quite surprised to not find at least one female wolf.

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

I'm inclined to think this is the case.

I'm off to reread Lhuna's posts.

[Cailín]

What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I was trying to imply that of the nine (now ten) people who have posted so far, I would not be surprised at least one of them has their own hidden agenda.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.

Well, that's why we should wait for all people to have a say first, as far as that is possible. But it is unlikely - if the wolves indeed are smart - that suspicion of either Lhuna or Kath would disappear tomorrow if it does not toDay. By lynching them one at the time, all we would do is buy the wolves another Night to kill more innocents and we'd be in the same position with less allies left.

I hope you see my point: unless Lhuna or Kath is the other Seer (which is almost impossible), the Seer would not be sacrificing him/herself to save one of them and one more Night is not beneficial for either them or the village. The villagers are by now so suspicious of the both of them that unless someone comes along with groundbreaking theories or evidence, they are going to end up lynched anyway. And then a double-lynching is better than one.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I've just gone back through some of the earlier posts by Lhuna and Kath and have come to the conclusion that maybe a double lynch would be the correct action for today. I want to make it clear, though, that while I support such a course of action today I do not necessarily think it should be the norm from now on.

Also, I said we could end up with three dead innocents by daybreak, but that's only one eventuality. There are many possibilities, too many for me to list, but her's the best possible scenario: we could have three dead wolves by daybreak. How? Well, there are other ways it could work but: Kath and Lhuna are wolves, but not lover wolves (that's two dead wolves). By night the first wolf vote cast is for the ordo-lover. That would kill the third wolf and rid us of the lovers. So, on closer inspection Eomer's plan is a good 'un.

[Gurthang]

First off, sorry for the posts after Day ended yesterday. I had just jumped into reading without checking the end or the admin thread. Our dear Prophet has told me the posts can remain, which is good, because I don't have to retype my thoughts now.

Later I'll finish up the reading and catch up on everything. Oi, long day coming...

[Kath]

Well, well, how nice of you all to plan my death while I'm not around :rolleyes: Obviously I don't agree with you killing me but there is little point in proclaiming my innocence as that never goes down well.

As for spawn and her accusations of me, I'll have to go back and have a re-read as I hadn't noticed they were that strong until Eomer and Farael started pointing them out.

On the subject of double-lynches, I dislike them whether I'm one of the prospective lynchees or not, and would prefer not to have them, at least not this early where there is still such a high chance that we would lynch two innocents in one go.

TGWBS's idea about lynching all the males to find the Lover and possibly a wolf is a little dangerous, especially since it again involves double lynches. If all the wolves are female (as someone suggested) it adds even more danger as only the deaths of the ordo Lover and one wolf would be gained, leaving a pretty low ratio of villager to wolves. (That last bit was based on guesswork, if someone could provide the actual maths I'd be very grateful.)

As for Lhuna, I agree that spawns' death makes her look bad (and yes myself too) and I'll take a look at the posts made by her and in regard to her.

So, I'll be back later with a post when I've got all these things clear in my head.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Actually Kath, I didn't refer to Spawn's accusations at all. I just agreed with the people who had already analysed Spawn's posts. Your name cropped up here, there and everywhere; and I had already suspected you.

I don't like double-lynchings either — that's why I've often campaigned against them. But since we have them at our disposal...

Use double-lynchings and 67% of deaths are decided by the village and only 33% by the wolves.

Yes, we lose innocents quicker, but our chances of catching wolves increase.

[the guy who be short]

Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.Oh, apologies. I left out, what, one post? That brings the total up to 4 extremely vague mentionings of somebody being discussed anyway. Quick! Lynch her!

And here's the one post you mention, Farael, that I left out, because I thought it so trivial.

I'll say it once again, Kath did post before Anguirel made the "Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat" post. I don't know if that makes much difference, but it's good to keep the facts straight. Post 193, spawn
This is what you base your accusations on!

Answer me, if spawn had dreamt of Kath and not Lhuna, why she voted for the latter? :rolleyes:

Yes, all of you pushing for a Kath lynching... you're just making it worse for yourself. We innocents aren't blind, you know. You can't make things up and expect us to accept them.

Call me shrill if you wish. When people dare to influence the village into accepting illogical arguments, I shall be shrill.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

We innocents? So you're not a wolf anymore? :p

[Kath]

I know some of you hate it when I do this and I'm sorry to redo spawn but I need it straight in my own head. This is only Day 1, I'll look at Day 2 and what's been said so far toDay a little later, so if there are things I've asked which seem obvious now then don't fret, I'll pick up on them later. However, obviously I have read the posts from the following Days, so it's all a bit mixed up.

Spawn:

Day 1:
Some bewailing of Nilp and them some good advice about the voting and saying that people should act same way as usual.

Reminds that bandwaggoning is not a crime if you suspect the person. A fair point that many forget. Also asks for reasoned votes, even on Day 1, though she realises that can be hard.

Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them. Someone said that the wolves knew who the Lover in their own ranks was. How would they know that unless the wolf Lover had told them, and where would be the point in that? I don’t see that as a very likely course of action. I think the wolves are probably looking just as hard for the Lovers, and perhaps thought they had found one.

Argues against Valier and Guy’s being Lovers, as it seems silly that they would leave messages since whichever was a wolf, their fellow wolves would pick up on it. Again tries to dissuade people from Lover-talk. She does it so reasonably that no one but Garin seems to argue against it, but if the wolf who is the Lover had reason to think his/her partner was in the running for the Night’s kill, he/she may have picked up on these points and so suggested spawn instead.

Looks like she’s supporting Lalaith and Cailín, or actually perhaps just Cailín. Either way it’s in response to Samwise, saying his case is undetailed and unfounded.

Thought my vote odd as the reasoning was the same as that of someone in a past game, and because she thinks Eomer is a good player to keep around if innocent. While this is true, it is the not knowing whether he is innocent that causes the problems, as he is a formidable opponent. The only way to know his role is either to lynch him, the wolves to kill him or the Seer to dream of him and reveal his role. The wolves are unlikely to kill him as he can generate mass confusion on his own, the Seer is unlikely to reveal anything until they have at least two of the four wolves if not three, especially now that we only have one Seer and not two. Therefore lynching him is the only viable solution. It sounds harsh I know, but I’m scared of him!

Agrees with Lhuna and votes Eonwe since the tie is not longer there.

Picks Samwise up on a possible wolvish slip.

So, if we're trying to work out what her Day 1 dream was it was possibly Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín, which leads me to think that these four are likely innocents. However, I saw nothing there to indicate that she was the Seer, and it's only by really stretching what she said that I can find anything hinty in there.

And having just seen her first post on Day 2, she was making a case against Glirdan.



Farael:
Day 1:
Actually starts off the Day trying to make a case against Ang. Well there’s a thing! Was this ever brought up? (Guess I’ll find out in a couple of pages). And if so why was it dropped? Oh and he mentioned wanting to confuse the village. I think that’s likely an in-role comment, but still.

Was still suspicious of Ang even later in that Day with Garin’s odd behaviour.

Votes Ang, and follows with an apology, which is exactly what Lhuna was accused of doing Day 2, yet no one mentioned Farael’s doing the same thing? Somethings odd there. Perhaps those focusing so much on Lhuna are trying to remove suspicion from Farael? It is possible that both are wolves and one is being used as scapegoat though.

That's all a bit farfetched I'll admit, but I just don't see why the suspicion surrounding him disappeared all of a sudden.


Lhuna:
Day 1:
Appears quite late due to timezones.

Thought Garin and Glirdan innocent. Some suspicion of Lalaith, Naria and Eonwe, with good reasoning for the first two, though she relies on feelings about the latter.

Votes Lalaith along with an apology to Garin if she’s wrong. I’ll grant this seems odd, but doesn’t she do it quite often?

It is very much against her that she did not break the tie, even with her principles and refusal to vote for someone she didn't find suspicious. Yet I wonder whether a wolf would go to such lengths and put themselves in a position where they are certain to be accused. It's possible yes, but is it really that probable? And yet with all these arguments against her I find myself leaning more and more toward the idea that it could be. Dang persuasive people! Right now, I'm switching between thinking her innocent and guilty every 5 minutes. In this 5 minutes, I'm on the innocent side.

That's it from me for now. Looking back at my ramblings it appears that I think spawn was killed due to her perhaps being the Lover, Farael is suspicious to me and I'm wondering why the suspicion on him was dropped, and while I can see the points against Lhuna right now I think her innocent. Oh, and I would rather not be killed thank you very much. Opinions welcomed!

And Eomer, one thing:
Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.
That’s from lmp. Wasn’t just me who had the idea that we needed to know what you are.

Ooh and Cailín <-- Look! I learned! Never again shall you see a Cailin from me, as promised :D

[Glirdan]

Alas for our deer Spawn!! May her soul rest in peace and aid us in our search for the Wolves.

Now to adress a few things.

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?(Thinlo)

I like that question Thin. Definetly one that I'm thinking of at this point for both Ang and Spawn and for everyone else who gets attacked at Night.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.(TGWBS)

I must agree that I think the Seer's would have dreamed of the loudmouths first. However, I do see a reason for dreaming of Kath: her quietness. She (along with a few others amongst us) have been fairly quiet. Yes, that's how Kath normally is. Kath is intelligent and could get away with being a Wolf if she really tried and for that reason, as well as her quietness, I believe that it's quite possible the Seer's dreamed of her. However, I find a Lhuna dream much more likely.

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7(TGWBS)

I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night?? I mean, they did attack Ang. We can't base our votes on something that we have no concrete proof on.

And a quick response to Glirdan. Don't play dumb with me, laddie! You know fine well what I was asking you. I'll say it again: If you are innocent, then why did the wolves not gleefully accuse you on Day Two, considering Anguirel voted for you? Seems very odd to me.(Eomer)

I have to options here: to either hide and make myself look more guilty, or to say straight up that I don't know....which I just did. So, as you see, I have no idea. Now, I realise that this is probably going to inciminate me more in your's (and many others) eyes, but I honestly don't know. Maybe they thought that I was in enough trouble that I'd end up getting myself lynched??

Now I'm going to go back through posts from Eonwe and Spawn from yesterDay as well as Day 1.

[Valier]

Just popping in. There is so much to read, two pages to be exact! I will take my time and read them through. I do think the majority of the village should come up with a strategy. Perhaps a double lynch is in order today. I am not so convinced of who the two lynchees should be yet. I don't think we should treat this like a good old witch hunt,or wolf hunt. Instead we should have a consensis of people we think should be lynched TODAY.

I think the idea of killing one gender to catch the lovers is interesting....but then again...I don't know! I will be back with hopefully something helpful and not annoying.;)

[Glirdan]

Eonwe

Day 1

Post #26 - Starts off with the basic "Oh, there's Wolves and a traitor amongst both sides". Says that he's going to vote randomly and chooses the tenth person above which happened to be Garin if nothing else turns up to change his mind.

Post #33 - Finds Lovers thing interesting. Compares the Lovers to Cobblers. Asks what the Wolves are doing about it and believe that they are doing nothing except watching their backs. Figures that the Ordo Lover is laying low. Thinks this will be a rather interesting game.

Post #38 - Finds Garin's vote interesting and thinks that mass suicides won't honour our Prophet.

Post #50 - Believes we should play this game like any other for when we weed out all the Wolves, the Lovers will be revealed as well. Thinks it's reasonable to guess that the Wolves are equally divided in gender then edit's and changes mind (thinks our Prophet chose the Wolves completely randomly).

Post #57 - More talking about the Lovers.

Post #60 - Is baffled by TGWBS but will hold off suspicions of him for later. Edits: finally realises that when one Lover dies, the other does as well.

Post #62 - Quotes Garin and says that he forgot to mention he was a lazy way-faring stranger.

Post #88 - Votes Garin (randomly). Says it's funny because he started the bandwagon.

Day 2

Post #170 - Likes the fiery discussions that have been raised. Mourns over Ang. Says he will try to go through all of the days posts as well as the Day 1 posts for personal analysis.

Post #197 - Votes Valier because he does not want to be lynched by Prophet (as said in Post #1) and Valier posted before him.

Well, there's not much to gather from his Day 2 posts. I did find something interesting in Day 1 though. In his post #33, he says that he figures that the Ordo Lover is probably laying low. I'm inclined to agree with him on that and there are a few who have been rather quiet. Those would be Naria, Caranlondien, Valier and Kath. I think we should start looking at the other three (Kath has been looked at already toDay).

I may not be able to return with my analysis on spawn until later.

[Valier]

Those would be Naria, Caranlondien, Valier and Kath. I think we should start looking at the other three (Kath has been looked at already toDay).

I may not be able to return with my analysis on spawn until later.


I can only speak for me, but I know I have not been that quiet. I know I have not come up with anything substancial as of yet, but with the time zones I find it a little hard to keep up, with all the people we have in this village.:)

[the guy who be short]

I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night??Well, the entire point of killing off the men is to get the Lovers. If the wolves kill a male, they simply make it easier for us to get rid of them. Then aid us.

Eomer: Sorry. I forgot my place for a moment.

Now, the impassioned plea.

If we are to adopt the double lynching scheme, it MUST be done TODAY. It cannot wait. Already there is a tiny chance - 6% - of failure if all the wolves are female. Waiting any longer to implement the plan means we will not have enough days to do so.


Not only does double-lynching men mean we will definitely catch the lovers, it also increases our chances of catching wolves, as Eomer rightly said.

Observe:

We lynch one person today. It is random. They have a 4/18, that is a 22% chance of being a wolf.

We lynch two people. There is a 14/18 x 13/17 chance of their being an innocent; that is, a 40% chance of being a wolf.

These are random chances, not real chances. In real life the wolves influence us, and lead us astray, a problem with four of them. By limiting who we vote for to the male gender, we reduce the randomness of the votes and minimise the wolvish influence, so that in real terms, the chance of catching a wolf is significantly higher.

Not to mention a 25% chance of grabbing the lovers today, or a 50% chance over two days.


I will reiterate, this is the FINAL day that this is realistically possible. It makes sense to accept it, as hard as it may seem, men. Embrace your suicidal tendencies for the greater good.

[Caranlondien]

My first reaction to TGWBS's plan is that it seems foolish. I think it's a plan that the wolves would be fine going along with; they, too, want to discover the lovers. Furthermore, I think that the remaining female wolves would have an easier time hiding amongst the innocent females who would essentially have been hand-picked by the wolves, through their kills each night. As has been pointed out, there are several of us who are comparatively quiet (for my part, it's due to lack of experience :) ) At the end of TGWBS's plan, the remaining female wolves would be able to use that quietness to shift suspicion to the wrong people. In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...

[Valier]

In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...


I may be but that would put him in great immediate danger if he was a wolf by purposing we kill the men first. Could be a VERY bold bluff.

[the guy who be short]

In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...Wonderful percentages those...

[Caranlondien]

that would put him in great immediate danger if he was a wolf by purposing we kill the men first. Could be a VERY bold bluff.

One that I think he's already proved himself capable of by calling himself a wolf every other post.

Wonderful percentages those...

Werewolves win as a team, meaning they can afford to make sacrifices. I'm just made very nervous by the fact that a plan like this announces our intentions for the rest of the game, giving the werewolves the upper hand, as they can both weed out the lovers and take their time deciding exactly which female ordos to put their female wolves up against.

[Cailín]

I have little time now but just quickly stopping by.

Ooh and Cailín <-- Look! I learned! Never again shall you see a Cailin from me, as promised

Kath, dear, you make me so proud. I'd almost not want to suspect you anymore. :p I'm glad to see a substantial post of yours.

TGWBS, have you so little confidence in us finding wolves that you propose such a drastic plan? I see you believe in neither Lhuna's nor Kath's guilt, but surely you must have some ideas. I am inclined to believe this is just more suicidal tendencies. Normally I'd go along with such a plan, I believe, were I not almost convinced of Lhunardawen's wolvishness.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Something has changed.

TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.

If we're going with two males then I suggest Glirdan (because Anguirel's killer may be obvious) and Farael (because of his weirdness regarding Anguirel and Kath). I also think it's wise to lynch Lhuna. What say to a Lhuna & male lynching tomorrow?

[Thinlómien]

In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with... True. Even though one (TGWBS) of the wolves, or even two were male the idea would be profiting for them.
I don't think the idea is good. Haven't you people thought that if we only follow that plan, we can't lynch any female suspects, and that's over half of the village. A stupid idea, I daresay.

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?(Thinlo) I wasn't the one who said that...

Spawn was a seer. She knew that if she died her posts would be analysed very carefully. If she wasn't sure of Lhuna's guilt, why would she have attacked her so fiercely? She might have voiced suspicion of her, but I don't believe she would have been so steadily against her at the end. Though I fear we're again following wrong traces and lynching an innocent again.

Someone, I don't remember who and when, said that it would be strange if the seers dreamed of Kath and Eonwe. What particularly strange is there?

[the guy who be short]

Because I've been a little uneasy about him.

Day 1

Post 27

Unwilling to accuse as it will result in it being used against him later.

Post 64

Analyses us all. What stands out about this post is the inability to make any concrete stands. He just vaguely accuses or defends everybody, with a huge show of being unsure and not knowing where to turn.

Interestingly, he doesn't analyse Eonwe... but I have no idea why.

Anywho, he says that spawn is probably evil due to her name. He suspects Garin because of his track record - illogical.

Says the wolves should fear Anguirel for being intelligent - a warning to his friends? A call for support? And then, Ang dies...

It's hard to make much, really, from the uncommited material he gives us.

Post 121

Says Garin should be saved because he once modded a game with him in it. I see. And yet, there was suspicion before. Odd.

Says Glirdan seems normal and then votes for me - an easy vote. He also creates a tie but 12 minutes before the deadline, hoping somebody will break it. Strange man.

Post 131

Joke.

Post 133

Says nothing important, he will return later.

Day 2

Post 203

Gloats about Garin being innocent, and how he knew it...

Says Anguirel's death is "a heartening choice on the part of the wolves." How did we miss this before?!

Says that I said 9 people voted for Garin, questioningly. If you don't know something, look it up, darn it!

Defends Lhuna - says she votes late due to timezones. Says he finds the idea of him and Lhuna as lovers interesting, and something Nilp would do. Hmmm.

Post 213

Tries to deflect suspicion from Lhuna to Samwise. Then says he doesn't seriously suspect him! But that by trying to save Garin, he was actng on Wolvish knowledge. Doesn't bring up that the same could be said of him.

Says to watch for Lovers giving hints. Him and Lhuna?

Post 216

Says Cailin got him thinking about Thinlomien, vaguely accuses her, then says he's inclined to not think her guilty. Sigh.

Ponders whether Glirdan or I could have lovers.

Post 222

Seems surprised that the innocent lover knows the wolves. This is obvious.

Jokes a little with Cailin about voting for him, and reiterates that he is not convinced with the Thinlomien case. Why are he and Cailin talking on such amicable terms?

Post 283

Looks at Eonwe and Lhuna for being frontrunners. Thinks neither is innocent. Wastes vote on Kath. Accuses her of flip-flopping. What happened to him on Garin?


Conclusion: Worried. Seems loverly, and not in a good way. I don't like his lack of commitment.

[Glirdan]

Spawn

Day 1

Post #7 - Mourns the loss of our Prophet. Agrees witht Lhuna that Day 1's aren't just random blabberings and also believes that it is highly likely that no Wolf would get voted for that Day. Thinks people should vote for someone they find most suspicious then says we should leave the voting talk for when that time comes around. Finds it good that Lalaith wants to help the quiet ones yet believes that it will be easier for the loudmouth Wolves to hide if she does so.

Post #17 - Quotes Thinlo and says that you are not bandwagoning if your vote is for someone that you think is guilty. Continues by saying that as long as someone gives a good reasoning behind their vote, it will help us find the Wolves. Quotes Ang and says that as soon as all the Wolves are dead, the mysterious Lover will be too. Reagards the Ordo Lover as a Cobbler.

Post #30 - Quotes Gurth and Garin and disagrees that Valier and TGWBS are the Lovers. Quotes Samwise and says that Cailin was just filling out her duties as town gossip and that her vote for Lalaith is purely random.

Post #124 - Takes a moment to ponder the voting. Can't tell much of Cailin or TGWB's vote. Thinks that Garin might have been bluffing when he said "I am actually not sure what came over me, I've always held the suicidal with great contempt." Thinks that Lalaith's vote for TGWBS could be considered as suspicious because her votes is based on occupation. Can't make hide or tail of Eomer's master plan so doesn't think of anything of his vote. Finds Kath's vote wierd. Finds tar's vote the best reasoned of the day. Wasn't impressed by Eonwe's voting reasons. Finds Celuien's vote reasoned. Doesn't know what to think of Glirdan's reasoning but finds him acting completely normal. Finds Farael is acting normal but disagrees with his voting reason. Finds Naria's behaviour completely normal but doesn't like it. Doesn't find Caranlondien suspcious. Can't tell much of Valier's vote for Glirdan as she doesn't give reasoning why she finds him suspicious.


Post #128 - Votes Eonwe because his vote is to wierd.

Day 2

Post #151 - Wants to go through Ang's posts even though Tar had already done so. Finds that most of Ang's posts were speaking against Glirdan yet she finds that Glirdan had been acting like usual. Doesn't think the Wolves went after Ang because he was a Seer but assumes that the Wolves are trying to get rid of them ASAP.

Post #164 - Quotes Lalaith and asks why would the Wolves have though Ang was Garin's fellow Seer if Garin was proved innocent at the end of Day 1. Finds that Lhuna's behaviour has changed. Found Form's behaviour rather risky.

I have to finish here for the time being. I'll be back later (hopefully) to finish it off.

[Farael]

You know TGWBS.... your plan might have the right odds but.... if we set out to do it, it's a win for the werewolves. No, they won't be too silent, but of course they won't be too loud... the female werewolves just have to go with the flow of the village, discussing calmly the death of every single male, even their furry counterparts. Given that they know who the males are (and given that the male werewolves will probably accept their faith and make the sacrifice) they'll accuse them, look innocent enough for the rest of the village and sail easily for the win.

If you can tell me how you will avoid the female werewolf/werewolves from going after their own kind and looking innocent enough after all is said and done, be my guest and start the lynching.... but until then, I say we drop this crazy theory.

By the way, Kath
Sorry if I'm mistaken, but I can't believe a true seer would be so careless.... and I don't think it was JUST roleplaying, the choice of words was too strong.

I'm not really apologising to Anguirel for the vote, I'm saying that I'll be sorry if I vote for a seer. I'm sure you'd be sorry too, or are you one of the four people who rejoiced in Spawn's death?

[Thinlómien]

I have to vote soon and again I have no idea, who to vote. The signs lead to Lhuna, but then again, I/we might be completely misled. I don't know what to think, and I don't feel that it's very fair to vote Lhuna before she's got a chance to defend herself.

[the guy who be short]

Werewolves win as a team, meaning they can afford to make sacrifices. I'm just made very nervous by the fact that a plan like this announces our intentions for the rest of the game.The aim of the plan is not to map out the rest of the game. It is to root out the lovers. It could, if we are lucky, be finished toDay. There is a 50% chance it will be done by tomorrow.

giving the werewolves the upper hand, as they can both weed out the lovers and take their time deciding exactly which female ordos to put their female wolves up againstThis is a valid argument, and one I had not thought of. However, as I have said, the plan would ideally be implemented today and over and done with by the end of tomorrow (there is a 50% chance of this happening). This means the wolves probably wont be able to handpick absolutely everybody.


TGWBS, have you so little confidence in us finding wolves that you propose such a drastic plan?
I have little confidence in a blind village with wolvish influence. I have more confidence in convincing statistics with no lupine influence.


I see you believe in neither Lhuna's nor Kath's guilt, but surely you must have some ideas.
Actually, I think there may be a case against Lhuna. But most of my suspicions are against males.


TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.
Thank you. I have been more convinced of your innocence this day due to your willingness to use double lynchings to our advantage.


If we're going with two males then I suggest Glirdan (because Anguirel's killer may be obvious) and Farael (because of his weirdness regarding Anguirel and Kath). I also think it's wise to lynch Lhuna. What say to a Lhuna & male lynching tomorrow?
I want to analyse them properly. I agree with Farael, but I want to look into Glirdan. There's also a tiny chance that Farael is the other Seer, but poor at communicating his discovery. I'm looking at Form or Gurthang too.

As for lynching Lhuna - I want the lovers. I'd prefer sticking to men.

[Thinlómien]

As for lynching Lhuna - I want the lovers. I'd prefer sticking to men.
Why the lovers? Why not the wolves? they are a bigger threat and finding the wolves leads to finding the lovers.

edit: Just noticed this was my 800th post! Hooray!

[the guy who be short]

If you can tell me how you will avoid the female werewolf/werewolves from going after their own kind and looking innocent enough after all is said and done, be my guest and start the lynching.... but until then, I say we drop this crazy theory.This is where people start using their brains. The plan will hopefully only take two days.

Once the lovers are dead, villagers have nine pages of records to go through for evidence. And, of course, new evidence will arise in the following pages. We manage by analysis now, and after managing by statistics, I see no reason why we would be unable to recommence managing by analysis.

[Caranlondien]

This is where people start using their brains. The plan will hopefully only take two days.
But what if it doesn't? It seems like you're trying to comfort us with a 50% chance. But there's a 50% chance it won't be that short.

The aim of the plan is not to map out the rest of the game. It is to root out the lovers.
Regardless of what you proclaim the "aim of the plan" to be, it is what it is, and it does map out a large part of the rest of the game, if our 1 in 2 chances go against us. I understand the desire for some orderly, systematic way of doing things, but I think that any such system only benefits the werewolves, allowing them time to plan what to do at the end of the road.

[Thinlómien]

I hate this. There is nothing particularily suspicious about Lhuna except spawn's suspicions of her... I don't have strong beliefs about Lhuna being a wolf, but I don't have such beliefs about anyone else either...

[the guy who be short]

Why the lovers? Why not the wolves? they are a bigger threat and finding the wolves leads to finding the lovers.I am working in reverse.

Killing the men means we will definitely get the lovers. Once we have the lovers, we have one wolf to work from.

As well as this, I don't like the innocent lover. They look innocent to the Seer, like a cobbler. This could ultimately be our ruin.

[Farael]

This is where people start using their brains. The plan will hopefully only take two days.

Once the lovers are dead, villagers have nine pages of records to go through for evidence. And, of course, new evidence will arise in the following pages. We manage by analysis now, and after managing by statistics, I see no reason why we would be unable to recommence managing by analysis.

No good analysis will happen as the wolvish slip-ups are usually with regards to them not wanting to vote/acuse too strongly another werewolf, nor someone who is bound to be known innocent shortly thereafter. If they know they'll loose the male wolves anyway, the female ones will probably act accordingly and sound exactly like any other villager..... if this plan is implemented and up until the moment is done, there will be no useful discussion Guy.... you just don't see it, do you? a 50% chance is not certainty by a long shot.... and once we all agree to go on with this insanity, the shewolves will agree to it as well and just follow along. No-one can blame them of bandwagoning as it will be the village's policy.... discussion will be reduced to the male werewolves doing their best to get innocents lynched before themselves and so giving their female counterparts a better chance once they are dead.... while the females keep safe.

[Thinlómien]

As well as this, I don't like the innocent lover. They look innocent to the Seer, like a cobbler. This could ultimately be our ruin. I don't believe we should be hurrying about the lovers just now, we have time. We should rather catch the wolves; they kill one innocent each night, unlike the lovers.

I don't know whether we should make a double lynch today or not. There are good and bad sides about it. Though, I don't believe that we should kill two people if we don't have strong suspicions about them both; even in such a big village as this the futile lynching of one innocent might be fatal later on.

a 50% chance is not certainty by a long shot.... and once we all agree to go on with this insanity, the shewolves will agree to it as well and just follow along. No-one can blame them of bandwagoning as it will be the village's policy.... discussion will be reduced to the male werewolves doing their best to get innocents lynched before themselves and so giving their female counterparts a better chance once they are dead.... while the females keep safe. A very good point. I agree. A male lynching tactics costs us mindful discussion.

[Thinlómien]

I will vote, just in case I'm not able to get online later.

++Lhunardawen

I follow our seer blindly...

[the guy who be short]

Okay, okay.

1). I admit the plan has huge flaws.

2). I still like the numbers involved.

So, if you will not accept my plan, and I acknowledge that with such opposition, such a Bill may not be passed (;)), at least consider the double lynchings.

22% -> 40%. That's a good percentage leap.

Yes, consider this TGWBS's own watered-down Bill, put forward to the House once again...


And the lovers are a greater threat than you all seem to believe. We have amongst them two members of this village who stand against us and with the wolves, as long as we have numerical superiority.


But back to the point. Double lynchings. Accept them.


Also, Farael, you have been very willing to attack, and I concede that you have made some good points. However, you seem rather unwilling to defend yourself. This whole Kath business - your evidence is shoddier than my plan by far.

[Gurthang]

Wow, so much to read through. I'm going to (attempt to) make this short, since I doubt I'm the only one that's awed by the sheer amount of talk. I'll just post thoughts as they pop into my head while I read.

First, Valier sent a hidden message awhile back. This actually makes me think she is innocent. It makes no sense for a wolf to do it, especially given that they can PM during the Day. A hidden message only draws unwanted attention. I think she was just having some fun seeing who would find it.

Lhuna: Someone(I think Spawn?) brought up some good points about her, and others have voiced similar suspicion. One thing I think is in her favor is actually what is causing suspicion: that she would not break the tie yesterday. It is a guarantee of being suspected, as she is being, and for a wolf it is bad strategy. If you break a tie, one of the two dies, then the next Day the other one is likely to be suspected a lot. If both are lynched, the village begins the next Day fresh, with no stale near lynchees. In short, breaking a tie keeps the village in confusion for another Day, whereas leaving a tie kills both but saves the village time. A wolf would typically break a tie.

LMP is making sense to me, and I like his analysis. Although I should point out that (in post #272) he said Lalaith discredited looking at pairs when she had brought up the idea just 7 posts earlier. From what I see, it looks like she states dislike for the idea in both posts. That's not a good mark for him, and that vote still lingers on my mind. Watching him.

As I said (unfortunately before I realised that Day had ended), I'll be also be watching Farael and Glirdan, and maybe Cailín.


Okay, I finished reading through the second Day, so I'll go ahead and post my thoughts now. I'll be back after reading toDay.

P.S. Late response, I know, but I had noticed that you skipped me Cailín, and I was rather offended, but I do accept your apology. ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

[Farael]

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

That's presposterous, TGWBS's plan does not increase the villager's odds... it decreases them!! Sure, the mathematical odds increase, but this is not a game of math, as even after TGWBS's plan is done and all the males are dead, we'd have to revert back to analysis.

This game is won and lost by proper analysis. I offered my analysis and so far no-one has commented upon it properly. TGWBS's offers statistics and I say "they will be our doom". Why? because we will still need analysis yet once we commit to statistics we will loose the groundwork from which analysis is born. Namely, discussion. There will be no real discussion involving the female wolves, only their male counterparts.... thus the females will hide and then it will be too late for analysis. Eomer, your support of TGWBS but mostly your attack on those who try to show why his plan is misguided really worries me.

[Valier]

I for one do not think we should kill just the men. Women can be very crafty when backed into a corner remember...I do agree in a double lynch though.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, we will revert back to analysis — once we have found at least one and probably two wolves. It's hopeless analysing people when we don't know a wolf. Anything can appear as anything. Once we find one, more doors open up for us and our analysis has a proper basis.

Unlike now, where we are scraping about in the dark with little clue.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

And Farael, you misrepresent what I said. I agreed with TGWBS; but I did not attack those who disagreed with his plan; I said I would suspect anyone who doubts the merits of double-lynchings.

That's different.

[Farael]

And Farael, you misrepresent what I said. I agreed with TGWBS; but I did not attack those who disagreed with his plan; I said I would suspect anyone who doubts the merits of double-lynchings.

That's different.
My mistake Eomer, I stand corrected.

[Caranlondien]

I agree about double lynchings; As has been said, that gives us two kills based on the villagers' votes, and only one based on the werewolves (granted, the werewolves can influence our votes, but still...)

Eomer, I think TGWBS's plan is dead. While many of us agree about double lynchings, I think few of us will go along with an all-male lynching campaign. However, Eomer's continued defense of the plan does make me more inclined to believe him innocent; would a wolf continue to beat a dead horse? ;)

Anyway, I've been convincd by arguments that Lhuna and Kath belong on our suspect-list. I'm going to go back and re-read their posts myself, since I can't trust any of you. :p

[Gurthang]

Okay, with spawn dead this brings many thoughts to mind.

1. Lhuna is not a wolf. Farael brings some good points up about this in post #297.

2. Lhuna is a wolf, but spawn did not dream of her. Try to think of this from the wolves point of view. Spawn, being the intelligent woman that she is, is not going to boldly tell us who her dream was about. This would point to her not dreaming of Lhuna, since she pretty much went after her completely. But, wolves are going to be watching for their own names. If they see someone consistently saying their name accusingly, whether subtly or unsubtly, they will think that that person was a seer. This means that if either Lhuna or Kath is a wolf, they would have seen spawn as a possible seer.

3. Kath is a wolf, dreamed of and subtly hinted at by spawn. Reasoning in #2 more or less applies here. Also, Kath being a wolf also fits with Anguirel's death.

4. Both #2 and #3 are true.

Well, I'm leaning towards #2 or #3, and maybe #4. Probably Kath has the strongest case against her, because it fits with both spawn's death and Anguirel's murder.

Right now, as I read the rest of toDay's chatter, I'll be paying extra attention to Kath and Lhuna.

[Cailín]

Something has changed.

TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.

Why, Eomer, suddenly I know why we should lynch you on the first Day. This superior arrogance, as if you know something we do not, is absolutely agonising. :p

--

I wish Lhuna would post something -silly timezones-, but she remains my primary suspect. If we were to orchestrate a double-lynching (which seems the wisest idea), I'd likely support Farael, possibly Kath, perhaps Glirdan and maybe one of the people I am forgetting about.

That said, Gurthang, I am really sorry. I shall henceforth mention you in all my suspect-lists.

I remain hesitant of TGWBS' plan. With three or even four female wolves, this Plan could turn out to be disastrous. I just don't know what to think. I doubt much support could be gathered for it anyway.

[the guy who be short]

I find it unbelievable that people are contemplating lynching Kath on the basis of four completely ambiguous and open-ended comments on her. I am consisently ignored when I bring this up.

Why would spawn, having dreamt of Kath, vote for Lhuna?

The entire foundation upon which this Kathspicion is built is soggy.

[Lalaith]

So many posts, so little time....
One thing I want to say. Spawn was a very careful and experienced player. She used the word "wolfish" with regard to Lhuna. This is a word she did NOT use when she voted for Eonwe the day before. (He was of course an innocent.)
I do think this is significant.
But I do wish Lhuna would come and post. I don't want her lynched before she can speak out.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, I concede. But I think that TGWBS is innocent because he suggested a mathematical method to root out wolves. Wolves are not happy playing with statistics; they thrive on twisting every piece of analysis this way and that.

If you're not happy with the plan then fine. Let's not do it.

Double-lynchings are a must, though. I trust we all see the wisdom in them?

Wow, Cailín. So I'm not just arrogant, but I have superior arrogance? That's what happens when the King himself tells you that you're brilliant. :p ;)

All that happened was that I hit upon a new theory. It might be right, it might be wrong. Nothing important. Don't worry about it.

[the guy who be short]

I know the plan has been abandoned, but I just thought I'd bring up that the chance of there being four female wolves is (11!/7!) / (22!/18!) which comes out to 1 in 22.17. Seems a little unlikely.

Actually, that was the original chance. Factoring in all the deaths thus far, we get (10!/6!) / (18!/14!) which is 0.069. Almost negligable. By killing off all the men, we would, statistically speaking, probably get two wolves plus a lover.

But never mind. No point going on about it.

[Cailín]

Well, this is Nilp's game.

Things not making sense or negligible mathematical possibilities should be all around.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If the Seer is one of our quiet villagers who has not made any real accusations or defences, then it is definitely worth hiding.

But I know wolves. They absorb everything. If the other Seer has already made strong accusations or defences then it's very possible he/she could be slain tonight.

And then where would we be?

I guess I'm asking: When should the Seer reveal him/herself? If he/she knows the identity of 4 villagers (him/herself and 3 others) or even 5 tomorrow, then it might be worth him/her declaring him/herself, thus letting us build a double-lynching system around known innocents.

[the guy who be short]

Abridged form.

Well... he talks about seer hints from lmp, Eomer and Kath. Care to elaborate?

I don't really see why their voting seemed suspicious to him. But fair enough. Votes lmp, so at least he's consistent.

Like Lhuna, Gurthang says this:

I was actually thinking that Anguirel's ramblings might be hiding some seer's hints. Thankfully, I was mistaken.Which, of course, could be an honest wolf.

And suspects Kath because of Ang's death. I have no idea why, as he hardly mentions her in a negative light.

Says he is worried about LMP's retaliatory vote for Eomer. Good point.

Also says spawn speaks sense. Make of that what you will.

Says to look at Lhuna on day 2 with no reasoning.

However, he also suspects Farael. Hmm. Good. And seems to support Kath's innocence.


Despite suspecting him earlier, I am now inclined to believe in Gurthang's innocence. Gurthang, what were these messages from Valier?

[Celuien]

Having just gone over the spawn/Lhuna interaction, I find Lhuna very suspcious for the same reasons given already, particularly the sudden reversal from spawn's inital agreement with her to a vote for Lhuna.

Actually, a Lhuna dream might not be so far-fetched. There was quite a bit of back-and-forth between spawn and Lhuna on the first day.

Post #3:
My deepest condolences, fair dancing spawn. I pray that you do not succumb to your sorrow and go suicidal as his ancestors once did; instead gather your strength and courage. We shall avenge his death.

The often-cited post #120:


I can't vote for someone I don't really suspect, even if it means a likely innocent will die if I don't. Oh, I feel so helpless. dancing spawn, are you still there?

Post #128:

I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled. I feel the sincerity in their posts, and I know that all the jumpiness is only normal.
Lhuna, you speak sense. I agree with your last post there, and I don't know whom to vote...


The simple fact that they did correspond so much on day 1 might have triggered a dream. Then spawn declares suspicion in post #164 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=454137&postcount=164) before her vote for Lhuna.

I can, however, think of alternate explanation for this, so I'll withhold my vote until Lhuna returns.

[Cailín]

The Seer should do as s/he sees fit.

We have no clue to his or her identity... so I couldn't possibly judge whether s/he is in immediate danger or not. Also, it largely depends on who they have dreamt of.

I trust our Seer to do what's best for the village.

[the guy who be short]

I trust our Seer to do what's best for the village.
As do I! any discussion of Seerism is dangerous and should be avoided. The Seer can decide things for him- or herself.

[Celuien]

Despite suspecting him earlier, I am now inclined to believe in Gurthang's innocence. Gurthang, what were these messages from Valier?

I think he's talking about the "I don't eat sheep" subliminal message in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=454203&postcount=185).

At least that's the only one I spotted.

[the guy who be short]

Thank you Celuien. That doesn't much change my opinion of her though.

I'd just like to point out that Naria and Kath have both spoken less often than the Prophet himself. This seems unacceptable.

Anyway, to bed.

++FARAEL

I like people to make sense. This persecution of Kath does not make sense.

Villagers, if you can, double lynch him with Lhuna.

[Farael]

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village. Of course, others may think that you are a seer who has found something, but I know you are not as I know I'm not a wolf. Thus the question remains, why are you being so manipulative? do you have other interests? all those statistics and the detraction from proper analysis.... quite odd, isn't it?

And Guy, I can see you have spent not a minute trying to understand my theory. I still believe that after Anguirel's death, a seer Spawn would not go all out against a wolf she had dreamt about. IT WOULD MEAN HER DEATH. In any case, she did die, but for some other reason we might learn about later. Perhaps because the wolves picked up that she was on Kath's trail, as I did today.... perhaps by random chance, the wolves trying to equate the number of males and females and choosing spawn for he relationship with Nilp. I think we are all forgetting that Spawn was VERY likely to be either gifted or wolvish in this game....

[Formendacil]

Hmm... miss half a day, and you have a lot of catchup to play...

Anyway, things today seem to be heading in one of two directions: Lhuna and Kath- both of whom seem to have been "Wolfified" by Spawn.

Not that I necessarily disagree. Spawn's accusations of Lhuna, especially yesterday, seem to have been fairly consistent once they began. And Lhuna has, to a certain extent, incriminated herself by her actions. Whether or not she actually IS a werewolf though... it's difficult to say. Lhuna has been suspected so many times in her career in this game that it seems almost ridiculous to be voting for her. But she must be a Werewolf someday... and if this is the day...

Then there's Kath. Spawn's indiction of her is less solid-seeming than of Lhuna, which may have been a clever Seer not making herself stand out for the Werewolves to see, or it may have meant that she didn't dream of Kath, and was simply voicing suspicions based on her own knowledge of things.

Of the two, I'm more inclined to think that Kath is a Werewolf. It goes back, as my analyzing usually does, to the way she usually plays the game. It could just be that circumstances are more favourable for her, but Kath has seemed more active than usual to me- a sign that I take to mean that she's probably a Werewolf. Lhuna, on the other hand, seems completely normal- or as normal as she gets. :p

Now, TGWBS has been making an awful lot of noise from what I've seen about a plan to double-lynch away the entire male population of the village...

I'm really not too keen on the idea, since it's based on the thought that we're BOUND to catch one of the Lovers that way. Well, what if Kath or Lhuna is the Werewolf Lover? If so, then BANG! we have the male lover dead as well.

And we're back to Square One. Nilp has said nothing about the Werewolves being Two Men and Two Women- and it would be unlikely of him to influence the game by doing so now. It's not outside the realm of possibility that there are three female wolves and one male- or vice versa.

So, as I see it, TGWBS's plan should definitely be no more than considered today. We probably have at least one Wolf in hand, thanks to Spawn. If we get really lucky- and by gum it's the villagers' turn to be lucky this game- then we might catch the Lover Werewolf in doing so.

Finally, to restate for this village what I've stated for all the villages before: I don't like double-lynchings. Never have, and I never will. And, although I'm willing to die for the village if need be, I'd really just as soon that we lynched people who actually appear to be Werewolves rather than just grabbing two people every day and lynching them.

Anyway, I'm reasonably convinced of Kath's guilt. I see no point in waiting to vote.

++ Kath

[Caranlondien]

I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village
I agree. I think that TGWBS has been manipulative, and I'm definitely still suspicious of him. Everyone keeps writing off his behavior as in-character and Nilp-esque, but I just don't think that's a good enough reason; After all, it really is the perfect cover for a wolf.

As for Kath, I think good points are made on both sides. I'd like to hear from her more before lynching her, so I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

TGWBS's vote for Farael surprised me a little; maybe I missed it, but I thought he seemed more suspicious of others. I guess he wanted to get another candidate out there hoping people wouldn't vote for Kath, since he believes her innocent. I'm very suspicious of him though, so I'm hesitant to just follow his suggestions. Besides, now that Formendacil has voted for Kath, we're up to three candidates.

[Farael]

Thinlomien: Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short: Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil: Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)

It seems that the three main suspects for the day (and yes, I reckon that I'm being suspected) have been voted for already. While it's likely that one (or two) of us three will be lynched today, I would suggest that we don't focus solely on us. Should we all be misguided, the wolves may slip through the cracks.

Having said that, and without forgetting that my main suspect is Kath, for whom I shall most likely vote by the end of the day, I shall raise my personal concerns about TGWBS. Maybe not for today, but for further reference.

*He proposes a strategy that seems logical enough
*When his strategy is challenged, he attacks the challengers
*When his strategy is proven mostly incorrect, he gives up on it but still tries to vouch in favour of lynching one of the loudest opposers of his theory.

Now, when (and if) I die, you will see I'm no wolf. That plays straight into The Guy's hand, as a wolf would not be that blatantly obvious and you will all see I'm no seer thus I was just a villager who disagreed with him. He'll say he's terribly sorry but... we will be one male short. If the wolves happen to kill another male during the night, he'll again argue "let's kill all males" given that the mathematical odds will increase. I don't feel like working up the numbers right now, but I'm pretty certain they will not increase in a significant amount.

The Guy has also been very vocal, going after about a quarter of the village in the last three days. Obviously, a wolf would not do that because loudmouths get lynched.... or so HE says. By the same statistics he so much seems to like, odds are that he has accused, raised concerns or mentioned in a bad light more innocents than wolves.

His behaviour seemed more that of a misguided loudmouth up to today. His far-fetched plan (something I cautioned us against before) and his attack on me (whom, unlike you all, know I'm innocent) have raised a thought that had not occurred to me before.

He seems VERY interested in getting rid of the lovers. Surely, the lovers are more of a concern to the wolves than what they are to us innocent villagers, as if we find the wolves we find the lovers... but if the wolves don't find the lovers, the traitor in their midst can do much more damage than the ordo lover. One traitor working against four can do more damage than one traitor working against twenty.

Is The Guy's fixation on finding the lovers suddenly seems pretty interesting. He has offered me and Lhuna for the sacrificial pyre at the end of the day.... I shall offer you a new possibility. Kath is still high up there in my suspect list, but The Guy is climbing fast. Furthermore, by his attack on me and Lhuna, The Guy is moving attention away from Kath herself. I've spent many of my posts arguing the pro/cons of his theory as well as defending myself where I thought I needed to make a stand and very little time explaining my thoughts about Kath to anyone who has some doubts about them.

I propose lynching Kath and The Guy in two days, and in that order. That way, should Kath's death reveal some useful information, we could use ANALYSIS (something The Guy seems to be mildly against this early on the village) to decide whether or not we should go on and rid ourselves of The Guy

Some of the proposers of the double-lynch seem to think that given that we will probably lynch both individuals anyway, we might as well do it at once... yet you forget that new things may come up, new lines of thought my sway our persuasion.... and furthermore, the death of ONE of the two people may somehow put the other in the clear.

Thus I propose, let's go after Kath today, and depending on what we see and what Guy answers to my accusation when he comes back, we'll lynch him later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Farael, you seem to miss the point. Spawn may well not have gone all out for the wolf that she dreamed about; but the wolves don't know that. There's a very good chance that the wolves see Spawn go after Lhuna and get worried. Simplest explanations are usually the best.

And just because TGWBS suspects you doesn't mean he's not the Seer. How can you know that? Maybe he is and just hasn't dreamed about you yet. Meaning absolutely no offence, my good man, but your posts come across as edgy to me. Maybe it's just because I'm picturing you as a wolf. I don't know. You're still one of my main suspects.

Kath, I did notice that LMP used your reasoning in voting for me, and frankly I think the both of you are foolish for doing that. "Oh, the only we can know Eomer's true identity is if we kill him or the Seer dreams about him".... how is that any different from any other villager? I think you might have been scaremongering, knowing that I'm a good target because of past wolvery.

And I still find all the talk of you yesterday to be weird. Set-up of Kath, my foot...

I'm very suspicious of you.

But we're obviously not going to let Lhuna survive until the end.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Besides, it's the unwritten rule that I must vote for her in every game. :(

I've been a terrible brother...

[SamwiseGamgee]

There sure is a lot to be getting on with, eh? :rolleyes:

I've got a plan, though: how about we lynch a wolf. It's out there, but I have a niggling feeling it may work. :p At the start of the day someone (sorry, forget who) said we should try to be more united as a village and I just haven't seen that today.

But moving on, I'm going to vote Lhuna in about a half hour unless (1) she comes on and exhonerates herself or (2) someone else becomes more suspicious. My reason is thus: Spawn was a seer, and is a clever lady: she knew that if she was killed everything she'd said or done was going to be turned upside down and inside out. So why then did she go after Lhuna so doggedly? Forget 'it doesn't make sense for her to dream of Lhuna'. Let's deal with what we know: Spawn expressly went after Lhuna yesterday and then voted for her. Why would she do that?

The arguments against Kath are strong also, and I have no problem with us lynching them both, but I shall vote for Lhuna myself simply because I feel more comfortable doing so.

[Cailín]

Well, I'm going to bed now. Truthfully, I have not made up my mind yet, so shall probably spend a few hours contemplating in the dark. I will return before voting time tomorrow. If the majority of the village decides on a plan before then, I will naturally cooperate. As for now, I find each of you suspicious and some more so than others.

Good night all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, let's be more united. Forget that, by its very nature, this is a game of lying, cheating, stealing, and double-crossing.

What do you propose, Samwise? Should we all get together and hold hands and not lynch anyone and unite as a village?

:p

Such a lack of bloodlust makes me think you're not the man you once were. :D

String him up!

[Gurthang]

I've realized over the last couple of Days that the Lovers have a lot of power on the outcome of this village, if not in the actual process of the outcome. Even if they don't win, they could either betray or not betray the wolves before they die. It's interesting. If the wolves would decide to kill the wolf-Lover's love, then the Lover's could easily give the wolves names to the village(providing they knew the wolves intentions beforehand). If the villagers kill one of the lover's, the wolves identity is buried with them(hypothetically speaking. I'm not really suggesting that we bestow the honor of burial on the Lovers.). It almost seems that, when their own hope of victory is dead, the Lover's hold the village's fate in their hands.

Guy's suggestion of lynching all males a while back is interesting, but not plausible in my mind. I don't think it really matters, as it has already been shot down, I assume. But, just to make sure, let me say this: The reasoning behind The Plan is to get the Lovers. Quite frankly, the one lover who is not a wolf should not have enough influence on the village to make a difference, and the four wolves won't have a lot of influence because it is unlikely that they will all move together. Hence, the lovers can pretty much be ignored until later in the game. And I don't like playing the odds, simply because these are not simple odds, they can and will be tampered with by the wolves.

I support the idea of double lynching Kath and Lhuna. It seems like a good way to clear a lot of suspicion. And I think it's very likely that one, if not both, is a wolf. The trouble is going to be bringing it about. But, I completely disagree that we should have a double lynch from here on out. I think we can get a lot from the wolves kill each Night, and killing more each Day shortens the time we have for the wolves to make kills. Also, it gives us less voting to analyze. I think one toDay will probably tell us enough that we won't need to do another double for a few Days.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Eomer, you cut me to my core! :( Come, let us drink and womanise until the wee small hours and you shall find I am no less of a man than you remember! :D

P.S.- We're both male, so keep you crackpot lover theories to yourselves! :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gurthang, you make reasonable points against double-lynchings. But if the Seer does choose to reveal some known innocents then we cannot afford to let the chance slip by.

Aye, Samwise! Let us drink rum 'til we forget the worries of our time; and the sorrows of this village. But the womenfolk may well be locked-up in their homes tonight, rather than partying at the saloon. :D

[SamwiseGamgee]

A wise point, Eomer. One can only imagine the horror of finding that the evening's pull is a huge, slavering, toothy wolf! I think 'yuk' fails to cover it. :D

[Farael]

Master Samwise, given that you seem to be around, would you kindly explain to me why we should ignore the fact that Spawn was not likely to dream of Lhuna on the second night?

As far as I can tell, it is plausible if not probable, and thus we should not forget it. As a matter of fact, we should not forget a thing that has been said, for evidence may lay on the most inconspicuous statements.

Furthermore, care to explain exactly why you seem to be in Lhuna's tail? you have been accusing her with no real reasoning for the past two days and this anti-lhuna theories play straight into your hands. You can get her lynched without being the man to propose it, and thus avoid most of the heat if she turns out to be an innocent. I'm not saying that she will, but she sure seems more innocent than Kath right now.

Finally, why should we villagers unite? I think we should stay at each other's throat, allies one day and enemies the next as a united vilalge will fall to the wolves. We cannot tell who the wolves are right now, and that is our problem. If we "unite and work together" we shall also die together, as we would be welcoming those furry beasts into our supposedly synergistic group.

Really, you should know better than that. OR do you have other interests in mind?

Finally, I find it very unsettling when a villager posts a comment that does not include one bit of analysis after day 1. I will not hold it against you given that this is a game after all and we are supposed to have fun, but try to contribute something to the discussion if you are to post.

[Glirdan]

I said I'd finish analysing spawn later, so, I will.

Post #166 - Does an analysis of Naria and after it, doesn' suspect her.

Post #175 - Nothing much except quotes and answers to them.

Post #193 - More quote and answers.

Post #199 - Asks Eonwe if he had any suspicions instead of voting for Valier simply because Valier posted before him. Says she won't vote for him that Day because there are better lynching candidates. Quoted and agreed with Gurth. Wanted to hear more from Naria.

Post #207 - Quotes and agrees with Eomer that it's possible that the Wolves didn't attack Ang to frame Kath. Quotes and agrees with Eomer once again.

Post #212 - Quotes Lhuna and asks if she's confessing. Finds Lhuna the most Wolvish and votes her.

Well, there's not much that I see there leading towards a Kath or Lhuna dream. I think she voted for Lhuna on instinct mostly and the facts that she had gathered against her. I'll be back with some more thoughts.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Excuse me Farael, I did say "Forget 'it doesn't make sense for Spawn to dream of Lhuna'." Or words rather close to those, but what I should have said was "Forget for the minute..." I guess I got somewhat carried away in the moment of my thought. I don't think we should completely ignore it, but when we trust in speculation on what makes sense we err. What makes sense to you, Farael, may make no sense whatsoever to me. 'Sense' is subjective, and that's why I'm uncomfortable with leaning on it.

I became suspicious of Lhuna yesterday morning. Maybe after the night had an ordo been killed I would have put it on the backburner. However, learning of Spawn's seerishness and bearing in mind what she said regarding Lhuna means that she is my chief suspect. That's why I've been on her tail so closely: because I believe she has one! :D

Now, my unity call was made out of frustration. Frustration mainly at what I saw as you and TGWBS's bickering. Even as I read that I was agreeing with TGWBS, and now that I've read your last post I am very uncomfortable. Just compare the reactions to my 'working together' post of Eomer and Farael. I can't help but think that Farael, staring down the barrel of getting lynched, is desperately trying to shift everyone's focus.

[Lalaith]

I hope I've counted right, but I believe we currently have a vote for Farael,(tgwbs) a vote for Kath, (Form) and two votes for Lhuna. (Lommy, Eomer)

I keep thinking about poor spawn, wherever she's been taken by her white-robed figure, silently shouting at us, no, you fools, can't you see I meant xxxxxx....

So, what or who was this xxxxxxx? It could of course be nothing but two innocents, ie, she never dreamt of a wolf at all. I can see the argument in favour of a wolf-Kath (particularly the way spawn kept repeatedly rebutting the idea of a "Kath frame-up") but I will trust in her specific use of the word "wolfish" against Lhuna.
Perhaps we should, as some here have suggested, do a double-lynch, of Lhuna and Kath. I however will vote for the one I think is most suspicious.
In an ideal world, I would wait for Lhuna herself to speak - I wish I could, but I can't be sure that I can get back online in time tomorrow morning.

++LHUNARDAWEN


PS
One third of us is now guilty
Again, Cailín, I find myself challenging you on numbers. We are now 18. A third of that is six but if you count the lover as guilty, that still only makes five....don't want to be a pedant, but as we are quibbling on odds and percentage points, we need to get these things right.

[Farael]

I can't help but think that Farael, staring down the barrel of getting lynched, is desperately trying to shift everyone's focus.
Feel free to think that way, those who know me also know that I don't mind being lynched when my presence has become a disturbance to the village rather than help, but I think I can still help, even if some suspect me. Furthermore, I think I've been pretty consistant, even from before the first suspicions were voiced.

I suspect Kath much more than Lhuna, although I don't think Lhuna to be innocent "For sure"

After today's happenings, I also have second-thoughts about TGWBS

I think we should lynch Kath (and so I have for the last two days) and then tomorrow possibly TGWBS.

Of course, that shifts focus away from me... because I'm obviously not advocating my death just yet. But it's an irrational statement, your comments on me also shift the focus away from you and into me.... and Glirdan's last comments on spawn shift the focus to Kath and Lhuna again.... every comment shifts the focus, and I obviously won't get the focus on me because there is nothing to focus on!

[SamwiseGamgee]

That's not wholly true, Farael. Explaining oneself doesn't shift focus, does it? My real point was the fact that it seemed somewhat desperate.

But I'm not going to vote for you today, because I'm going to vote for:

++ Lhunardawen

I know I said I'd only wait half an hour when I first posted this evening, but then Family Guy came on, so I delayed! :D

Vote total is now thus:
Lhuna: 4
Farael: 1
Kath: 1

[Celuien]

Voting update:

Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short --> Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)

I'll probably vote for Lhuna unless we're still trying for a double lynch today, in which case I'll vote Kath.

EDIT: crossposted with Samwise. Voting summary edited to reflect his vote for Lhuna.

EDIT again: I'm actually somewhat more comfortable with voting for Kath than I am for Lhuna. Besides, my vote may be needed to coordinate the double. And I don't know how late I can stay to wait for Lhuna. So, to keep my word not to vote for Lhuna before hearing from her and for the other reasons above.

++KATH

And I've edited the vote count once again to reflect my vote below:

Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short --> Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 2)

[Kath]

Disclaimer from the last post should be repeated here!

Day 2:

Spawn:
Mentions that I had spoken before Ang made his post and agrees that Ang’s death possibly makes me and Eomer look bad, but doesn’t think so really. Links Ang to Eomer and suggests Eomer is a wolf. Points out that Ang spoke out a lot against Glirdan, but she doesn’t think him a wolf as he has been posting normally. Possibly an indication that she dreamt of him, found him innocent and is dismissing him from her suspicions, but that’s a stretch.

Looks again at Lhuna, making a case against her and finds her actions and words seem wolvish. Now if she did dream of Lhuna that’s pretty damning evidence, but if not it’s simply speculation. It is, of course, impossible for us to know which.

Voices some suspicion of Naria. Again could be a dream, but I think it would be far less likely for spawn to dream of Naria than Lhuna given the choice.

Makes a point of repeating that I posted before Ang, but I don’t know which direction that’s pushing in.

Pretty cross with Eonwe for his unreasoned vote but says she won’t vote for him.

Seems to feel that the wolves taking time out on Night 2 to specifically set me up is a little farfetched. Thinks it’s possible I am a wolf, but after she begins that train of thought she stops claiming it confuses her. Is defending me far more than accusing me. I’m not harping on about this really, I’m just trying to work out where the idea that spawn was blatantly accusing me of wolvishness came from.

Picks up on Lhuna’s ‘a wolf either way’ comment. Votes Lhuna claiming that the arguments of others have swayed her. Now if she dreamt of Lhuna and wanted to get her lynched without revealing herself to be the Seer that has to be one of the best ways to go about it. And this post combined with that idea is seriously swaying me toward the ‘Lhuna is a wolf’ camp.


Lhuna:
I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer; thank the Mod God he isn't.
This has been quoted a lot and seemed to start off the suspicion of Lhuna. Why should it be so wolvish? Is it not possible that she was simply thankful that the wolves had not got the Seer? I’m not saying it isn’t the first option, but there are two possibilities here. And yet there is still the matter of not breaking this double lynch. It really does speak against her, but it’s so obvious! I just can’t help thinking a lupine Lhuna would be more subtle.

Defends herself about leaving the double lynch as it stood, saying she couldn’t vote for Guy due to principles. This again has been taken as a wolvish statement but again it seems too bold. But Lhuna could well be a bold wolf.

Tar-a picks up on Lhuna’s use of ‘we’ when speaking of saving Garin and though I think this is a little pedantic the point remains that she could be trying to ally herself with a group of innocents. If Lhuna is a wolf perhaps those she included herself with should be viewed as innocents, that’s Ang, Lommy, Form and spawn. Well we know two are – Ang and spawn.

Lommy begins to make a case against Lhuna over her reluctance to take sides. Now Lommy can’t realistically accuse anyone of flip-flopping when she herself does it so often, but the scenarios she gives are acceptable. Her scenario 3 seems to be following the same lines as my mind toDay, except that I think Lhuna did ponder her vote, and chose to go with her principles. However, that doesn’t exclude the possibility that her principles helpfully coincided with her wolvish desire to let the tie stand.

Put on Eomer’s suspect list due to, apparently, her thinking Glirdan and Garin were innocent and being worried about it. Not much reasoning there.

Gives a simple defence, reiterating her reasons for not breaking the tie. It’s a calm defence too, but I’m not sure whether that speaks in her favour or suggests she’s a cool wolf.

Cailín is somewhat suspicious of her as is Gurthang. But nothing concrete from either of them.

Samwise repeats his reasons for suspecting her and they are fair ones but seems quite happy to switch his vote to someone else. Odd that.

Has some support from Lommy over the ‘wolf either way’ comment. However as I think Lommy innocent that doesn’t help much.

Samwise votes for Lhuna based on his earlier suspicions, presumably because no one better turned up.

Has some support from Cara, who thinks the comments that spawn and others picked up on were blown out of proportion (which I tend to agree with).

Lhuna returns and repeats her defence, answering questions thrown her way. She does keep pointing at Samwise, with good reason for some things but it seems more like she’s trying to shift the suspicion from her to him.

Argues against spawn saying she too left the tie and voted elsewhere, but this is unfortunately incorrect. Spawn voted after the tie had been dealt with. It looks here like Lhuna is trying to ally herself with spawn, and if Lhuna is a wolf then she is trying to ally herself with a known innocent (to her). Votes Eonwe because of the silly vote.

Suspicion from lmp because of the ‘Ang. . .Seer’ quote and the ‘we wanted to save Garin’ quote. Votes Lhuna due to her digging herself into a hole.

Cara votes Lhuna because she seems more suspicious than Eonwe.


Farael:
Explains why he didn’t become suicidal and why he defended me rather than Eomer or Glirdan. Then, within a post, switches from defending me to accusing me. His options are a little rigid for my liking (but then they would be, they make me guilty either way) and I don’t think they cover all of them. The case is there, but it’s not solid.

Cailín has him at the top of her suspect list.



Ok, well, I obviously don’t like Farael’s point of view as he is making a case against me. As to everyone else doing the same thing, if you are basing this on spawn’s words then please go back and reread them, as I really cannot find anything she said that would make me out to be a wolf. Everything she said about me was vague and flip floppy, especially in comparison to what she said about Lhuna.

And as for Lhuna, I did not want to think her guilty, I still don’t. But looking at the evidence from the last two days and the sheer strength of the arguments against her, as well as support of those arguments from a Seer . . . well.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Oh and looking at that most recent post from Farael, why is he completely ignoring Lhuna? His suspect list from his words goes Kath, Lhuna, Guy, but his order of lynching goes Kath, Guy.

[Farael]

Oh and looking at that most recent post from Farael, why is he completely ignoring Lhuna? His suspect list from his words goes Kath, Lhuna, Guy, but his order of lynching goes Kath, Guy.
Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear.... I said that Lhuna is still a suspect, but not as much as you..... and given our latest exchanges, Guy.

[Caranlondien]

I may not be able to return toDay, so I shall cast my vote now:

++LHUNARDAWEN

I suspected her yesterday, and I suspect her today. Good luck, everyone; May we lynch a wolf!

Edit: Cross-posted with Celuien's Edit and with Farael; I see Celuien's point about the possibility of a double lynch, but I'm just not sure about Kath, and I'd hate to lynch an innocen just for the sake of doing a double lynch...

[Formendacil]

Kath, I hate to say it- well, actually, I don't hate to say it, since I'm on your case anyway- but that vote of yours really looks like a Werewolf trying to save their neck rather than the reasoned vote for a Seer-confirmed candidate that you make it out to be.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Off to bed, but before I go, it's Lhuna: 6 and Kath: 2. If there's going to be a double lynch better get a move on.

[Gurthang]

Well, I'm becoming less and less sure of what I thought I was sure of... :(

I'm still in support of lynching Lhuna toDay, and it looks like it is going to happen. Kath has explained herself a little, and it also brings to mind that some of what I had been basing my opinion of her on was what Farael was saying. I'll have to go back and check to see exactly how spawn mentions Kath. But, my main suspicion of Kath is that it would emake sense with both Ang's death and spawn being taken away and is not only based on what spawn may or may not have said about her.

I am also still in support of a double lynch toDay. I am becoming a little more suspicious of Farael, so either he and Lhuna or Kath and Lhuna would be alright with me. As things are going though, it looks like it might be Lhuna only.


One more thing; After TGWBS mentioned The Plan toDay, a lot of discussion (and by a lot I mean possible as much as half) was wasted on it. I don't suspect him a lot right now, but, even given that The Plan was supposedly made with good intentions, it was definitely a hindrance to toDay's discussion.

Voting:
Lhuna - 6
Kath - 2
Farael - 1

I will be voting later; probably close to the end of the Day.

[tar-ancalime]

I know that I'm not online at the same time as many of the rest of you, but I'm starting to feel a little ignored!

from Kath, regarding Farael:

Actually starts off the Day trying to make a case against Ang. Well there’s a thing! Was this ever brought up?
Yeah, actually, and I voted for him for this reason. I retained my suspicions of him yesterday as well, though I became more nervous about Eomer. I still don't trust either of them.

quoted by Glirdan, attributed to Thinlomien:

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?
That was me.


Kath again:

Someone said that the wolves knew who the Lover in their own ranks was. How would they know that unless the wolf Lover had told them, and where would be the point in that?
That was me too. I don't think the wolf Lover has told them anything; but I do think that it's harder to hide in a company of four than in a company of twenty, and with all the wolves' access to each other (public discussions, PMs day and night) it would be strange if at least one of them hadn't cottoned on to the Lover by now, after three Nights and almost three Days. If I'm wrong, well, hats off to the Lover wolf for being a better dissimulator than I give you credit for.

[Glirdan]

Oh Eru.... I have no idea who too vote for. There's cases against both Lhuna and Kath and talk of a double lynch (which I support). There's only small bits of facts pointing towards Kath being a Wolf. There's not a whole lot in spawn's posts that suggests a dream of either of them. The only thing I can really go on is what Eonwe said in post #33, that the Ordo Lover is probably laying low which suggests a few people: Kath, Caranlondien, Valier and Naria. Out of those four, I'm ready to eliminate Valier from what spawn had said in post #30 where she disagrees with Gurth and Garin. I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly. Naria's been worrying me for quite some time now because of the scilence and Kath...well, I don't really have anything to go on for Kath. I'll be back after I go over the posts I've missed and, hopefully, I'll be able to draw conclusions from them.

[tar-ancalime]

You know, I didn't have a problem with Kath at all until her recent post that includes her vote. But she's really grasping at straws to defend herself:

In her analysis of spawn she brings up spawn's comment that Ang didn't trust Eomer. I thought "Oh goody! Did she find something I missed on Eomer?" So I went back and looked at spawn's post, and there was nothing really there. Just the two references to Eomer that we talked about yesterday.

What bothered me most about Eomer was not Ang's two references to him, but the way he deliberately ignored the second and stronger one (in which he's linked to lmp) and deliberately called attention to the first and weaker one (in which he's linked with Kath), thus hoping to link himself to early, humorous accusations only. Granted, neither of Ang's comments on Eomer is particularly strong, but it bothered me then and it bothers me now that he ignores the second one in favor of the obviously humorous first.

Ang's comments are moot, as he is dead and not a Seer, but Eomer's reaction to them is not. Likewise, Kath's redrawing of attention to these two Eomer comments (knowing full well that they're far back in a long thread and those who haven't already started what may be an irrational suspicion of Eomer aren't likely to go back and check) looks a little squidgy to me, to say the least.

I still hold suspicion for Farael, the more so now that he has started to nurse what looks like a grudge against tgwbs. It can't look any other way--Farael largely ignores tgwbs in his pursuit of Kath, then when tgwbs starts to turn on Farael, well, the claws come out, so to speak.

But for today, anyway, my suspicions of Eomer and Farael are going to have to take a back seat to the main event:

To double lynch or not to double lynch?

Let's remember this: if we double lynch once, it doesn't mean we're going to have to continue to do it every day. tgwbs's plan would essentially have required that, as it would force us into a race with the wolves, and relenting on the double lynches of men would have erased our advantage. But double lynches in general don't have to play out this way.

Naysayers who bring up endgame statistics in reference to double lynches at this point in the game forget that it's not a tool we have to use every day.

For today, though, I think it makes sense. There are a lot of villagers whose names have hardly been mentioned. We need to clear the air, to get some fresh discussions going, and to do that we've got to rid ourselves of guaranteed lynch candidates.

With that in mind,

++Kath

to keep the possibility of a double lynch alive.

[Glirdan]

After going over the last few posts, I think I've finally come to a conclusion. After reading Kath's voting post and her reasoning behind her vote (for Lhuna), I'm now inclined to believe her guilty. She says, and I quote:

And as for Lhuna, I did not want to think her guilty, I still don’t. But looking at the evidence from the last two days and the sheer strength of the arguments against her, as well as support of those arguments from a Seer . . . well.

So, she doesn't want to think Lhuna is guilty, and still doesn't think Lhuna's guilty yet votes for her anyway. Add on top of that the fact that she's bee pretty quiet (read my post above for more info on that) and I think we've got a Wolf in our hands.

So, without further ado

++Kath

Good night everyone and may we finally catch a Wolf.

[Lhunardawen]

Ooh. So. This is how I'll die? With my fellow villagers planning my lynching while I am fast asleep - thanks to my darned timezones? How reminiscent is this of a certain village in Numenor... *coughcoughWerewolfXIVcoughcough*

This will be a long read, so it might take sometime for me to be back with something to defend myself with.

But seeing that you've already planned my death, is there even a point? :rolleyes:

I hope you have fun washing off the blood of an innocent from your hands.

[littlemanpoet]

What did the dead innocent get right?

Garin: (lynched)

I am not a wolf.Fat lot of good getting this right got us. :p
Was inclined to trust Anguirel. (#73)

Anguirel: (killed by werewolves)
Apparently nothing of moment.

Eonwe: (lynched) Huh, he says that casting a random vote on Day 2 with evidence available would indeed be idiotic, and then does so. But he did say before his infamous random vote on Day 2 that he would have a hard time getting on line, which probably meant that he couldn't do the research he intended. He did say he was sorry for randomly voting again. It now looks to me like some werewolves may have taken advantage of his infamous vote and joined the bandwagon against him.

******************

What did the dead innocent say that might be right or wrong?

Garin: (lynched)

#34: thinks Cailín is innocent.

#79: saw abnormalities in Farael's posts.

Anguirel: (killed by werewolves)

# 51: defends Cailín against Samwise's suspicion.

#51: If TGBWS is a Wolf, then throwing himself into danger could be a strategy to keep Valier out of it. If he's a Lover, it's a quixotic gesture.

#69: I don't trust the harper [Eomer] who accuses ye one bit

#112: thinks Glirdan's vote was very suspicious.

#118: votes for Glirdan - This may be important as a signal to why he died, though the seeming seer argument seems the stronger. It would not hurt to keep an eye on Glirdan.

Eonwe: (lynched)

He sees the ordo-lover as a cobbler type, and suggests that this person will probably lay low. Maybe, maybe not.

*****************

Who has been suspicious in voting?

Day 1:

Celuien and Glirdan were the middle voters for Garin.
Lalaith, Naria, & Formendacil bandwagoned for Guy, but Formendacil broke the double lynch tie.
Lhuna did a throw-away vote of the innocent Eonwe, leaving a double lynch tie in place.

Day 2:

Cailin, Kath, Lhuna, Valier, & Naria all joined Lalaith's bandwagon against the innocnet Eonwe.
************
Who has potentially shown their innocence by their voting?

Samwise & Caran voted for Lhuna.
************
Who has potentially shown their innocence by sound reasoning and helpful posts?

Caran and tar-ancalime, on on this new Day 3, Cailín, whom I no longer suspect strongly.
*********
Who (not a known innocent) has voted for (now) known innocents?

Day 1
Celuien
Glirdan
Farael
Caran - but voted for Lhuna on Day 2
Samwise - but voted for Lhuna on Day 2

Day 2
Lalaith
Cailín
Kath
Lhuna
Valier
Naria

more to come......

[littlemanpoet]

Who did Spawn defend, suspect, & accuse on Day 1?

a. Defend: in #30 does NOT defend Cailíin so much as say Sam's accusation of Cailín doesn't have much substance.

b. Suspect:
- in #30 she mentions Cailín's early vote as suspicious to due randomness which can be a werewolf cover.
- in #124 she feels funny about Kath's vote for Eomer

c. Accuse: Eonwe because his voting reasons were a bit too weird.

Who did Spawn defend, suspect, & accuse on Day 2?

a. defend:
- in #151mildly questions and defends Glirdan as a werewolf who thought Ang was seer, but thinks he's just been playing his normal game.
- in #166 says she's not suspicious of Naria.
- in #199 she takes Eonwe to task: I won't vote for you again toDay because to me there are better lynching candidates, too, but you're not being very helpful, if I may say that. Now, what's interesting about this is that she says that she will not vote for Eonwe because there are better lynching candidates, meaning others of whom she is more suspicious. Hence, it's a reasonable conclusion that she did not dream of Eonwe, at all; if she had, there's not way she would say this because of the trail it would leave once she was dead. I just hope the other seer's as careful as she seems to have been.
- in #212 defends Samwise as having saved the village from a possible double lynch, which she has already pointed out Lhuna could have done and didn't.

b. suspect:
- in #164 she suggests closer examination of the Lhuna issue; comments on Lhuna's changed play, more insecure and apologetic. Villagers whose actions are decorated with apologies are creeping me out. Translation: they are acting wolvish ... like Lhuna.
- in #164 she observes that Formendacil has made a tie 12 minutes before the deadline.
- in #166 she concludes by saying that maybe she's suspicious of Naria anyway, more or less wiping out her defense of Naria earlier in that post; safe to say that Spawn most likely didn't dream of Naria and wanted to make sure in case of her murder that no-one thought she had.
- in #193 she retorts to Lhuna: I don't think our votes can be ragarded as helpful when talking about saving Garin.
- in #207: Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused. As seer, she seems to want to be careful here, basically saying that she's not sure about any of these three, suggesting that she had not dreamed of them by this time.

c. accuse:
- in #164 Spawn notes Lhuna's strange comment about fearing Ang was a seer and says, A wolvish confession?Right now your actions feel rather wolvish, young missy.
- in #212 she straight up accuses Lhuna and votes for her.I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour. Here again Spawn is pointing out the disconnect between Lhuna's odd apologetic behavior and the supposed stubborness she claims. What's interesting about this is that by this point it seems like Spawn is trying to point at Lhuna so that nobody will miss her meaning. Which means that she strongly wants Lhuna lynched; this makes it pretty obvious that she has dreamed that Lhuna is a werewolf.

What are the facts of the case that we did not know at the outset?

Fact: Spawn was one of our seers.

Fact: On Day 1 Spawn voted for Eonwe on Day 1

Fact: On Day 2 Spawn said that she didn't think Eonwe was a werewolf.

Fact: On Day 2 Spawn accused and voted for Lhuna.

Fact: I haven't been able to isolate any hints as to whom she dreamed of that was innocent. It's pretty obvious to me that she must have dreamed of Lhuna; which Night, who knows? I doubt we can come to a safe conclusion as to which Night, not that it matters a whole lot.

[littlemanpoet]

Who has sown confusion?

Eomer, Guy, & Farael.

Two points to cover the three of them:

1. This whole Kath business seems like a tempest in a teapot to me, garnering far more attention than it deserves. Of course, Kath is as worthy of having an eye kept on as any other, but not as a distration away from the more obvious candidates; like Lhuna.

2. Related, is the preposterous notion that Spawn dreamt of Eonwe instead of Lhuna and that her pointing at Lhuna on Day 2 is somehow ambiguous. That is tripe. Nonsense. Distracting garbage. Makes me suspect Guy.

Obviously, this means I've changed my tune somewhat on Eomer. Well, so it is. Seems to me a lot of hot air is being wasted on Kath, although I do think Eomer may be on to something regarding Farael, I'm just not sure.

Well, I'm half way through page 9 and have a lot of reading to do. At least with these posts I'll know where I added my info.

[littlemanpoet]

I hope it's been rejected by now, but if it hasn't, it should be.

Guy admits that its motivation is to root out the lovers. However, it has been generally agreed by the more helpful villagers who don't call themselves werewolves, that by going after the werewolves, the lovers will be defeated.

So stop it, Guy, or else we're going to have to lynch you as a primary suspect for werewolvery.

[Naria]

Well, that took way too long to read everything that has happened toDay. And I must confess that I am even more confused about what to do. I do agree that we should do a double lynch for toDay(taking note that this does not have to happen every Day). I don't agree with Shorty's 'Plan'! Killing off all of the male ww's would only ensure the females ww survival. And yes I do believe that there could very well be all female werewolves, so pegging off all of the males would definitely not be wise(so the females can hide?). It could also be the other way around and there could be all male ww's--at any rate the 'Plan' should not happen.

Now Shorty, I couldn't help noticing that you are not leaving ww signs anymore, why is that? :p

Farael is acting a bit weird I must say, but I really don't think him coming out with guns-a-blazin is out of the 'norm' for him--he has acted in much the same way in other such scenarios. He's making some sense and at the very least I am not confused by his posts too much.

I have to admit that Kath was not on my suspicous list until toDay. There have been some 'damning' posts made by some and I find myself agreeing with certain parts(the parts that don't confuse me). She also seems to be digging herself into a deeper hole everytime she posts, making weak attempts to defend herself. hmmm

About Lhuna, my suspicion of her started yesterday, not because of the tie vote thingy, but because she doesn't seem to be Lhuna. Her posts have not been all that insightful like they normally are and yes she does have timezone problems, as do I, but she hasn't managed to get on yet and post some kind of defence, something that I'd like to think that she would have definatley managed to do by now. Or maybe she has and saw how many votes she has and figured why bother. At any rate I have some time to spare before I vote toDay so I will wait and see if she comes on and what she has to say.

All in all, I have to truthfully say that I am torn between these two--I just don't know right now--I'll wait a bit and see if anything else happens.


'

[tar-ancalime]

from lmp, regarding Day 1:

Lhuna did a throw-away vote of the innocent Eonwe, leaving a double lynch tie in place.
No, Lhuna voted for Lalaith, not Eonwe.

[Lhunardawen]

Hmm. Okay, so I see that the primary reason I'm up for the lynch toDay is that from carry-over Day 1 events spawn attacked me after agreeing with me over something that previous Day, and her suspicion was supported by other villagers. In the end she decided to vote for me. Then last Night the wolves killed her, she is found out to be a Seeriff, and that will obviously implicate me.

Hmm...let's see. You say the Seeriffs decided to dream about me, found me to be a wolf, and using dancing spawn as the sacrificial Seeriff alerted the village to my lycanthropy. I guess this would explain her sudeen 180-degree turn on me.

Yes, we all know that dancing spawn is a very good and experienced player, and as a Seer - well, she is definitely a great asset to our village. Now, knowing that there are four wolves against just two Seeriffs, and NO Ranger in this village...why would they take the risk of sacrificing a particularly helpful villager just to help the village catch a single wolf, leaving only one Seeriff to fend off for him/herself against three wolves? That's tantamount to her actually revealing herself outright. We would expect them to be more careful.

With that said, it is very probable that the Seeriffs had no wolf dreams as yet, and she just pursued her suspicions of me after someone presented the idea. Apparently the wolves took advantage of this to frame an innocent, which they have now successfully done. For which I must commend them. We obviously have very smart wolves against us. And then, much to their surprise, she actually was a Seeriff! Added bonus to them.

As for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

More later. I have a lot to answer to, obviously.

[littlemanpoet]

No, Lhuna voted for Lalaith, not Eonwe.
Oops, I read my notes wrong. It was Spawn who voted for Eonwe, and Lhuna's throw-away vote was for Lalaith, as you say. Sorry.

[littlemanpoet]

As for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

Interesting. The rest of this werewolf's post is a lot of hot air signifying a wish to survive, but this one paragraph could maybe fall under the heading of "speaking as much truth as a werewolf can get away with". You see, it seems to me that Farael is playing his typical game and that he has his sites set (probalby wrongly) on Kath; but his observation about Guy's non-lover-wolvish desire to get rid of all the men seems rather suspicious. I wouldn't put it past Guy in the least to say "I'm a werewolf" and actually be one. This "we have to get the lovers" desperation lends credence to such a thought.

So if you really want to double lynch someone (there being 17 voters), there are 6 voters to go including me, and if all 6 vote Guy, there's a chance that we might have gotten two werewolves. Obviously, Kath already has 4 votes, and lynching her though in my opinion probably incorrect, will at least clear up that issue. By the way, Eomer's quick agreement to Guy's 'Plan' leads me to worry about him as the possible other werewolf.

[Caranlondien]

And I wish I hadn't voted already! While I definitely think a vote for Lhuna is well-spent, it seems like my vote for her wasn't necessary to ensure her lynching. LMP, I agree about TGWBS's suspicious behavior, and if you guys try to get him double-lynched, I'm with you (in spirit, at least, since I already voted :rolleyes: )

[littlemanpoet]

Thanks, Caranlondien. We'll hope for the best. I'll be back in about 3 1/2 hours, which is suppose to give me one more hour to read whatever's been written and vote...... right, ModGod's Prophet?

[tar-ancalime]

Hey, lmp--

I don't trust tgwbs any farther than I can throw him, but I'm skeptical of the suspicion he's engendered today.

Farael is pursuing what looks like a grudge.

You and others seem to think that his y-chromosome double lynch plan is enough to send him to the gallows.

But I'd caution you in particular, lmp--think back to past villages. Has there ever been anyone who advanced complex and unworkable plan after complex and unworkable plan, only to be found innocent in the end? ;)

Again, not saying he's innocent; just that I don't think the problems with his plan are reason enough to lynch him.

[Formendacil]

Thanks, Caranlondien. We'll hope for the best. I'll be back in about 3 1/2 hours, which is suppose to give me one more hour to read whatever's been written and vote...... right, ModGod's Prophet?

He never said anything about being earlier or late, so ontime seems like a reasonable expectation.

Looking at the events over the last few hours since I've been online, I'm seeing one tread: more rational thought- which is definitely a good thing. Of course, it might just mean that TGWBS has gone to bed... :p

Speaking of TGWBS, I find it interesting, LMP, that you lump him together with Eomer and Farael as the main troublemakers. Not that I disagree with you on the fact that they have, by and large, stirred up the most confusion today, but considering that the three of them have held mostly opposing views, I wonder which of the three (assuming any of them) is the Werewolf?

After all, it seems highly unlikely to me that all three of the Werewolves would be drawing attention to themselves in such a way- especially since it seems that one of their own- Lhuna or Kath, since I'm not discounting Kath as a Werewolf- is on the voting block today. One, or even two, of them might try and make noise to distract the village- but not all three, surely! Since I consider Eomer and TGWBS the more likely of the three to be such audacious Werewolves, I'm willing to think Farael innocent for now. I somehow think that if he was a Werewolf, he'd be less noisy than he is as a Villager.

[littlemanpoet]

I realized that I can't count on werewolf Lhuna to help double lynch Guy if he's a werewolf, she being one of the six remaining voters, so:

++ Lhunardawen

We really need to get this werewolf lynched. That's seven votes. Five voters to go. Kath having 4 votes against her, let's see how these last five vote. I think it will tell us a lot.

tar, my reason for suspecting Guy for [u]this[/i] plan is because its motivation is self-confessedly to root out the lovers, which is more of a concern to the werewolves than to the innocents.

Formy, I only disagree with Farael because he's arguing forthrightly if wrongly in my opinion. Guy and Eomer, on the other hand, are foisting strange things that don't sit right. You, Formy, by the way, have defended Lhuna and voted for Kath, whose supposed guilt I think is a big distraction from the real werewolves. Farael has been caught up in it, which is a shame, but I think the werewolves are taking advantage of him and he'll look awfully guilty if/when Kath doesn't turn out to be a werewolf. I'm not saying that I have any set opinions on Kath, just that the case against her looks pretty trumped up. And as to her defense of herself and vote for Lhuna, she's in that precarious d'd if you do, d'd if you don't situation that my forebears have known all too well. That you Formy, and Eomer keep pointing at her worries me about you.

And just to reiterate some points I've made before:

I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt. :D

[Farael]

Alright, there is not much more I can do here. Just a few parting comments before my vote.

*I am as certain as only the most insightful of ordos can be that Kath is a wolf.

*I am still not sold on this whole campaign of lynching Lhuna. I like LMP's idea of ridding ourselves of TGWBS, but is it possible to do him and Kath rather than him and Lhuna? if it is, I would strongly advise the village to do it. If it's not, let's rid ourselves of Kath first... and I might be swayed to lynch Lhuna if Kath turns out not to be a werewolf... but I am confident she will be.

*I think that Formen may be one of the lovers. I think Kath might be his loved one. He has been distancing himself from Kath yet not going straight at her neck.... He might be playing a dangerous game but it does not look likely that Kath will be lynched. I'd like to see how he reacts when Kath is in serious danger.

So I propose, let's Lynch Kath tonight and let Formen feel the bitter taste of defeat.

Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.

++Kath

And if any of you have an ounce of brain, you will follow myexample. You will see.

[Farael]

Cross posted with LMP

My friend, you are wise... wise yet misguided. Kath is a wolf and I know so for sure. Lhuna is more of a gray zone just now. We will probably know soon anyway.

Fellow villagers, I beseech you. I understand where the Lhuna voters are coming from, yet let me tell you, Kath is a werewolf for certain. Don't waste your votes on someone who may or may not turn furry.

[Valier]

Well since I may not have time later I will vote now.Since the vote is swaying towards Lhuna, I think a double lynch would be an eye opener today. So hoping others think the same way

++Kath

I don't think she is overly suspicious, but a vote for Lhuna now would be a waste.If neither is a wolf I appologize.I think tomorrow will hold more info.

Night to all! I hope we catch us two wolves today!

[Formendacil]

Formy, I only disagree with Farael because he's arguing forthrightly if wrongly in my opinion. Guy and Eomer, on the other hand, are foisting strange things that don't sit right. You, Formy, by the way, have defended Lhuna and voted for Kath, whose supposed guilt I think is a big distraction from the real werewolves. Farael has been caught up in it, which is a shame, but I think the werewolves are taking advantage of him and he'll look awfully guilty if/when Kath doesn't turn out to be a werewolf. I'm not saying that I have any set opinions on Kath, just that the case against her looks pretty trumped up. And as to her defense of herself and vote for Lhuna, she's in that precarious d'd if you do, d'd if you don't situation that my forebears have known all too well. That you Formy, and Eomer keep pointing at her worries me about you.

Fair enough...

Let's just wait and see. It's possible, you know, that Kath is a Werewolf. How about we wait until she's dead (assuming that she dies before Game Over) before declaring me guilty on that basis. I still have a lot of qualms about Miss Kath.

I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt. :D

How nice! I've replaced Farael as the last partner of your Eomer/TGWBS triad. I'm so honoured. :p

Much though I'd like to, LMP, I'm afraid that I can't think you a Wolf at the moment, merely a misguided fellow Villager. However, let's wait and see what happens. One could easily "mis"construe your for for Lhunardawen as a Male Werewolf Lover making sure that his lover Kath is put well out harm's way.

Not that I believe it to be that way- at the moment- but your vote does have a certain feel of... being tacked on. Like a Werewolf who's waited until he's sure which way the wind is blowing before joining the bandwaggon.

We'll see indeed. :smokin:

[Valier]

Kath is a werewolf for certain
Are you certain,certain? and if so how?;) :p

[Caranlondien]

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)

I just can't help myself; I'm a big fan of lists :D

EDIT: And I always make mistakes...

[Formendacil]

*I think that Formen may be one of the lovers. I think Kath might be his loved one. He has been distancing himself from Kath yet not going straight at her neck.... He might be playing a dangerous game but it does not look likely that Kath will be lynched. I'd like to see how he reacts when Kath is in serious danger.

I can promise you, Farael that I'm not. The fact that I shall not die when Kath does- tonight, tomorrow, or whenever, should probably be proof enough for you.

So I propose, let's Lynch Kath tonight and let Formen feel the bitter taste of defeat.

I think you have your words mixed up... It's "victory" you're looking for, not "defeat".

Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.

I'm honoured. So it's impossible to be cunning and helpful at the same time? Such a pity... Guess I'll have to give up trying to be helpful. :p

[Gurthang]

I suddenly have a bad feeling. That kind of feeling like you're about to lynch your Seer. :(

Voting:
Lhuna - 7
Kath - 6
Farael - 1

Left to vote: Me, Lhuna, Naria, and Cailín

I don't think we should lynch TGWBS just yet. I doubt a wolf would put himself in the position he has. Still, one can never be sure until death clears all doubt.

I need to go check what spawn said about Kath. I'll be back to vote.

[Gurthang]

Spawn, with regards to Kath:

Day 1:
post #124:

Kath's vote seems somewhat weird.
Because (though I think this is repeating a past argument) if he's a wolf then better to get rid of him now, and if he's an innocent we won't be worrying about whether he's a wolf for the rest of the game! A hedging your bets argument it is I'll admit, but it's all I have.
As she admits, she repeats almost exactly the same words as tar-a in her past life. That reasoning got her in a bit of trouble then, but she turned out to be an innocent. Something in Kath's voting feels funny especially because if Eomer is innocent, it's good to keep him around.

Day 2:
post #151:

Mentions that Anguirel mentioned Kath. This post actually speaks more against Glirdan than anyone.

post #193:

Comments that Kath did post before Anguirel's initial post about her.

post #207:

Says [seemingly in jest] that maybe Kath is a wolf. I wouldn't take this seriously, since it was mostly made for sarcastic effect (if I read it right at all).


And that's it. That leaves me with almost no suspicion of Kath, because I had thought spawn had talked about her more and is not the case. This makes me much more suspicious of Farael, who continually claimed that spawn indicated Kath numerous times.

Actually, after glancing through all spawn's posts, Glirdan's name popped out more than Kath's did. I don't know if he was the one that she mentioned most, but his name just stuck out to me. Could be worth looking into.

And now, here is my dilemna. I don't suspect Kath anymore, which means that I'm not too keen on voting for her. Yet at the same time, I don't want to end up with everyone talking about Kath tomorrow. I know it sounds vicious, but I almost want to stop all that wasted breath now. So, what should I do? Anybody out there who wants to give advice is welcome.

Hopefully, I won't even have to make that call, since I'm almost split on it. I'll have to wait and see how the rest of the poeple who are left vote.

[Naria]

So, we have a stand-off then Gurthang! :D :p

[tar-ancalime]

And now, here is my dilemna. I don't suspect Kath anymore, which means that I'm not too keen on voting for her. Yet at the same time, I don't want to end up with everyone talking about Kath tomorrow. I know it sounds vicious, but I almost want to stop all that wasted breath now. So, what should I do? Anybody out there who wants to give advice is welcome.

Well, that's why I voted for her. I've always felt that, especially early in a game when the village is likely to be lynching innocents, the best vote is the expedient one. We really need to start talking about some other villagers here, and the longer Kath and Lhuna stay alive the longer we're going to be wasting time talking about them. If we don't lynch them both, we're going to spend a lot of time tomorrow talking about why we didn't, and rehashing the arguments for and against lynching the one who remains alive. If we lynch them both and they're innocent, sure, we'll be talking about it, but at least the conversation will be focused on the people who made it happen instead of on these two.

[Gurthang]

So, we have a stand-off then Gurthang! :D :p

????

What are you talking about?

[Naria]

If we lynch them both and they're innocent, sure, we'll be talking about it, but at least the conversation will be focused on the people who made it happen instead of on these two

Don't you mean, if they turn out to be ordos, that the conversation will be focused on me and Gurthang?Since we are the last ones to vote. I don't think Lhuna is going to vote, if she was she would have when she was on earlier, I guess. And I don't know when/if Cailin is going to be back on....

[Naria]

????

What are you talking about?

I was trying to make a funny, anywhoo....


I will go with Farael on this one because of this:

Kath is a wolf and I know so for sure. Lhuna is more of a gray zone just now. We will probably know soon anyway.

Fellow villagers, I beseech you. I understand where the Lhuna voters are coming from, yet let me tell you, Kath is a werewolf for certain. Don't waste your votes on someone who may or may not turn furry.

There's only one way that someone can say that they are absolutely certain about someone in this game.....

++Kath

[Gurthang]

I suddenly have a bad feeling about Naria. Although, that is partially assuaged by her agreeable vote. I also have a very bad feeling about what is going to happen between tonight and tomorrow morning.

Hmmm.... with all these bad feelings I'm having, maybe I ate something my stomach doesn't agree with. :rolleyes: :D

[Cailín]

I'm back and awake.

I shall still have to read through the thread, but the whole Kath thing is not making me too happy. I don't really suspect her, and yet lynching her might be worth it just for the information.

There's not much else we can still do. Is Kath going down with Lhuna? That is the question.

*goes back to read*

[Cailín]

Hmm... Farael's accusations against Kath are getting stronger every post.

We need to get this out of the way. Though I feel much uneasy, I shall continue to support the double lynch.

However, I do not trust Lhuna at all and I believe Lhunarwolf will vote to save herself if she has the chance. Gurthang, are you still there and can you hold your vote till about 8:30AM? I fear I can't.

[Gurthang]

Yeah, I'm hear. I'm sure Lhuna is watching closely, too. I'll be here until Day ends. According to the rules, I don't have to vote. If I read right, I can miss three days and be okay. I'll save mine to the end.

[Cailín]

Yeah, I'm hear. I'm sure Lhuna is watching closely, too. I'll be here until Day ends. According to the rules, I don't have to vote. If I read right, I can miss three days and be okay. I'll save mine to the end.

Glad to hear it.

Kath and Lhuna now each have 7 votes right? So I shouldn't vote for either of them.

[Naria]

I suddenly have a bad feeling. That kind of feeling like you're about to lynch your Seer

I didn't think too much about this at first, but after this:

I also have a very bad feeling about what is going to happen between tonight and tomorrow morning.

Hmmm.... with all these bad feelings I'm having, maybe I ate something my stomach doesn't agree with.

It started to bother me. In the first quote Gurthang, why did you say the words you're and your for the seer and not we're and our seer....hmmm

And why would you alone have a bad feeling about what is going to happen during the Night phase? With the exception of the wolves, aren't we all nervous about what is going to happen while we sleep?

This seems strange to me as well....What did you eat that your tummy doesn't agree with? A little Anguirel maybe?!

[Gurthang]

Glad to hear it.

Kath and Lhuna now each have 7 votes right? So I shouldn't vote for either of them.

Correct. I'll sit tight and make sure Lhuna doesn't screw things up.

It started to bother me. In the first quote Gurthang, why did you say the words you're and your for the seer and not we're and our seer....hmmm

And why would you alone have a bad feeling about what is going to happen during the Night phase? With the exception of the wolves, aren't we all nervous about what is going to happen while we sleep?

This seems strange to me as well....What did you eat that your tummy doesn't agree with? A little Anguirel maybe?!

In answer to the first question: I don't really know. I guess I was using a general pronoun rather than the possessive. Oh, and while you're picking on words, I used the wrong kind of here in post #447. :p :rolleyes:

When I say I have a bad feeling, I just feel like we're going to lose our seer in the course of tonight, I mean like they weren't careful enough and the wolves are onto them. I'd rather not talk about it too much, or else I'll be the one giving things away.

[Cailín]

Gurthang, I am with your bad feeling.

I will have to leave now but I shall make a symbolic vote.

++

That is it. Let's hope it's all for the best. Good luck, villagers.

[Gurthang]

Nilp, hurry up! I want to go to bed! :p

[Lhunardawen]

I can't die without causing some confusion, of course, can I?

Let's see. Right now I think either Cailin or Elempi is the last Seer. If Elempi is, well, I guess that explains a lot. If it's Cailin, great job of hiding it!

But according to my source, it could also possibly be Naria. Hmm, definitely something to consider.

You've been a wonderful village, folks. Ere I die I would like to tell you all to be very careful with whom you trust. But of course you all know that already.

You see, I have in my hands the power to end this game, for good or ill in whichever perspective. But since I don't want to be such a killjoy, I now choose to drag it out. Haha! Good luck my fellow wolves.

And oh, Eomer and I are the Lovers. I guess you'll have to say goodbye to him now. See you in the afterlife, my love. ;)

[Lhunardawen]

++kath

[Gurthang]

Nice try.

++Lhunardawen

I hope my bad feeling is wrong.

[Lhunardawen]

About me? Of course it is. Eomer's the wolf.

[Lhunardawen]

This is a quite familiar scenario, isn't it Gurthang?

[Gurthang]

No, my feeling that I've been talking about all evening. Just glance back up the page.

Nice to know that Nilp didn't 'doctor' who became what. Oh, wait... :rolleyes:

This is a quite familiar scenario, isn't it Gurthang?

It's not coming to me. Refresh my memory.

[Lhunardawen]

Werewolf XV...?

[Gurthang]

Oh, yeah... me getting stuck staying up all night so that the Eomer, and in this case you, can't ruin everything. Seems like I'm always the one that's up at 2:30am! Well, me and mormegil. And you too, but it's different in your neck of the world.

But here I am, chatting around like it's the end of the game. Where is Nilp? I really need to go to bed!

[Lhunardawen]

It's not as if I can vote twice, right?

And yes, the game is ending. Soon, very soon...

[Gurthang]

True, but I want to see the official ending before I go to sleep. Aww, never mind. It'll give me something to look forward to tomorrow.

[Lhunardawen]

I'll spoil it for you. Kath is the other Seer, I'm an ordo Lover, and Eomer's the wolf-Lover. Good enough? G'night!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The villagers took Kath and Lhunardawen to Nilp's house, where they planned to use the same noose that killed the Prophet on them. They pushed Kath in first, and they were putting the noose around her neck when she transformed into a huge hulk of fanged fur. Coincidentally, the metamorphosis also enlarged her neck, and so she was strangled in the loop of rope.

The villagers cheered. They had their first Werewolf! Emboldened by their success, they turned to Lhunardawen. They roughly pushed the Dark Elf into her brother's hut.

Farael hung back, watching Lhuna's execution with tears in his eyes. She should not die, so fair, so desperate. At least she should not die alone, unaided.

With a sudden burst of strength he took the psychiatrist's couch and used it as a weapon against the assembled villagers. Thus he was able to make a path to her beloved. Dropping the couch he took her in his arms and sang:

Lhuna lunera, cascabelera
pedile a mi chiquita
por D"s que me quiera
Dile que la quiero, que tenga compasion
Pide que se apiade de mi corazon

But the village was unmoved by their display of passion. They took huge stones and pelted the pair with it. However, despite the chaos of the stoning, Farael and Lhunardawen neither saw nor heard of it. Their eyes were on each other, and in those eyes, they found peace . . .

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Glirdan, an unemployed person
Eomer of the Rohirrim, the royal musician
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
the guy who be short, a Nilp fan, stalker and impersonator, also a fisherman
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It was a glorious day for Ened-in-Nowhere. After the first few tottering steps to rid their village of the lupine menace, they finally got some on the third DAY. Two, in fact. Eomer of the Rohirrim was in his royal quarters that NIGHT, weaving melodious verses to commemorate the DAY in song.

Suddenly the door to his home tumbled in riven fragments to the ground. In strode two Werewolves, dreadful in their wrath. Eomer took his flute in one hand and his harp in the other. He strung his harp and fitted the flute into it. Holding the harp as if it were a bow, he fired at the Werewolves. But, since he was no archer, he missed. The Werewolves advanced menacingly.

'This is it,' Eomer thought. 'I'm going to die . . . and me without inspiration for my last song.' But despair lent genius wings, and suddenly the royal musician uttered these lines:

Sad souls, take comfort, nor forget
That sunrise never failed us yet.

The two fiends cackled. 'You'll never see sunrise again,' said one; and taking all his woodwind instruments they stabbed him repeatedly.

Standing back to admire their work, one of the Werewolves commented: 'There, he looks like a hedgehog. Anguirel shall find a good reason to hate him now.' The two snickered and left just before the first few golden rays betrayed Anar's return to the East.

The next day, all the villagers were gathered at Eomer's home. Many of them were secretly sobbing, some were openly weeping.

'Who could do such a horrible thing to such a handsome man?' Cailín said.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Glirdan, an unemployed person
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
the guy who be short, a Nilp fan, stalker and impersonator, also a fisherman
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Lalaith]

Alas. Poor Eomer. He homed in on the guilty ones over the last two Days, with almost Seerish brilliance, and this sealed his fate.
But still, we (I mean the remaining innocents,) can take great cheer in yesterDay's events. I was hoping we’d get one, but two and a lover….what a result.

Now, onto analysis. (I wrote most of this yesterday because I have to go right away and won't be back until late toDay.)
Of course now so much becomes clear.
Once spawn’s death and Seer status is announced, Farael is very quick and early to jump in with his attempt to indict Kath. This means that any watching wolf could guess that Lhuna is the lupine with the lover. Anyone who voted for Lhuna yesterDay (yes, including me) is more suspicious than the Kath-voters.
What of TGWBS? On the one hand, Lhuna’s willingness to leave him in the lurch, lynchwise, on day one, speaks for his innocence. But his actions yesterDay don’t look good to me. With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men. Is he (as I think Farael, who knew the wolves, actually said!) lone male wolf among three females, and is this his way of proving to his lady friends that he is not a traitor?

One other point. The Day before yesterDay, we had three unlikely babes in the wood – LMP, Form and Samwise – all seemingly realising with shock that lovers would reveal things to each other. I wondered whether this wide-eyed innocence was a ploy by at least one of them – to the extent that I re-posted my surprise, in a deliberately barbed way, hoping to gauge the reaction it got.
Samwise cheerfully acknowledges the oversight – an innocent reaction. LMP reacts huffily. He also makes a rather clumsy attempt to construct a case against me, a case which is (later) partly rebutted by Gurthang. But Form does not respond to my barb at all. Maybe he, as a very grand player, thinks both I and my point are beneath notice, but still…he’d been worrying me anyway, and this doesn’t help at all.
Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?
A quick analysis of Kath-voters:
Cailin, post 330. Looks good, but could be a ruthless wolf jettisoning her tainted fellow-travellers. Celuien votes for Kath because it’s more useful, another tick. Gurthang’s lonely vigil, waiting to catch Lhuna, is most impressive of all…perhaps too impressive. But I am inclined to think him innocent. Samwise also feels innocent to me.
And all praise to the late Eomer (post 162 - spot on, sir - except with one obvious error, ahem, which he did later retract)

I am currently most uncomfortable with Form, TGWBS and LMP, in that order.

[the guy who be short]

Well, we see Farael's motives now. His entire case against Kath was full of holes, and I feel fully justified in voting for him...


With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men
:confused:

Oh well. I knew people would try to use these deaths against me. Come, and I shall answer to you all...

[Cailín]

*weeps* Alas, alas, Eomer dead, and it is not even my fault. How terribly tragic and unfair.

Now why would Eomer be killed?

Mind you, he has been under some suspicion the past few Days and though he can be as much a threat as an ordinary, I am quite convinced they thought him the other Seer. That is great, because I am also almost certain he did that intentionally. He has mentioned the Seer often yesterDay - constantly seeming to bring it up while it was unnecessary - and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too). It is as close to a Ranger as we can get.

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

--

More after breakfast. ;)

[tar-ancalime]

So far in this game, the too-obvious-to-be-true has been, well, true.

Anguirel's death really did point to Kath.

dancing spawn's death really did point to Lhuna.

Farael's attacks on Kath really were unfounded (or founded on insider knowledge, as opposed to the discourse of the game).

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

[tar-ancalime]

from Lhuna:

I can't die without causing some confusion, of course, can I?

Let's see. Right now I think either Cailin or Elempi is the last Seer. If Elempi is, well, I guess that explains a lot. If it's Cailin, great job of hiding it!

But according to my source, it could also possibly be Naria. Hmm, definitely something to consider.

Obviously she was lying through her teeth in this post; but could there be a grain of truth in here? Could she really be giving us a summary of the wolves' thoughts on who is the second Seer? Obviously they thought last Night that Eomer was the most likely candidate, but Lhuna couldn't very well come out with that while claiming to be Eomer's Beloved, now could she?

What do y'all think? Are the wolves going to have to change their strategy because Lhuna just spilled the beans?

Alternatively, did Lhuna just give us the identities of the remaining wolves?

Or, as is probably the case, was she just making things up for fun?

[the guy who be short]

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.

[Cailín]

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

Agreed. Somehow, I can't believe we'd be that lucky thrice, but Glirdan definitely has been acting differently. Of course, Eomer was not the Seer, so it might all be a red herring. We can't ignore it either way and I shall be looking into Glirdan's posts as soon as possible. I generally got the impression from his previous posts that he was 'hiding' behind analysis, in other words, summing up dead people's posts.

Again, tar-ancalime, I think it is really no use to try and understand what Lhuna meant with her final posts. She intended to sow confusion and we'd be better off just ignoring her warped, twisted, wolvish statements. I think.

[Cailín]

and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too).

Looking back, I am not sure where I saw that… Probably it was merely imaginary. Anyhow, that is not the point.

A few questions:

How about Glirdan? No known wolf did vote for him yet, neither Kath nor Lhuna ever attempted to portray him in a negative light… and why not, I wonder. Glirdan would have been an easy victim, considering the events of the past few days. This is indeed strange. I think he definitely belongs on any suspect lists.

TGWBS… I trust him and yet I do not. He absolutely refused to believe the Seers had dreamt of a wolf (we still cannot be sure, but I think it is now extremely probable Lhuna was indeed the second dream) and his Plan was far from flawless. On the one hand, I think a wolf would not be so stupid. On the other hand, I don't think TGWBS would be so stupid. But we all make mistakes and at least TGWBS stuck to his own convictions.

I am a bit suspicious of Lalaith. Could Lhuny's vote have been wolf-on-wolf? She did not pursue her suspicions further the next Day, aside from mentioning them in her first post.

By the way, that vote for Lalaith looks good for TGWBS. It seems likely that Lhuna was trying to align herself with an innocent by defending him, rather than already defending a fellow wolf. As the Lover-wolf, she'd certainly not be inclined to do that.

I have too little time and actually don't really feel like doing a proper analysis of our departed wolves posts. I advise everyone to look for themselves anyway, rather than rely on summaries.

[Thinlómien]

Wow. I honestly didn't believe Kath to be a wolf. But evidently she was. :rolleyes: And we caught the lovers. I hope I don't sound heartless, if I say I'm not very sad at the moment (though Eomer the Innocent is dead). I'm rather happy that we caught two wolves and the lovers in one day. That was great.

Anyway, TGWBS looks a bit bad now - at least to me. He continuosly tried to distract people from analysing Kath and Lhuna by babbling about his double-lynch theory, which would have profited wolves, since now we know at least two of them were female.

I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly. ??? Care to explain a bit?

[Celuien]

Alas, Eomer shall be missed. Praise his memory for spotting both Lhuna and Kath! I'll start the donations for the Royal Eomer Memorial Concert Hall.
Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?


Huh? What? Oh. I did. :rolleyes: Actually, I didn't even think of that when I made the list. Pure coincidence. I guess that particular group that I'd been looking at was just the set that I'd noticed the most at the moment.

Actually, I'm more inclined even than before to think lmp innocent now. He did go after Lhuna pretty strongly, even before it would have been obvious to the Wolves by Farael's defense of her (well, at least from what we see in the village) that they were the Lovers. I'll go back over lmp's posts later.

Agree that TGWBS is definitely looking suspicious now that we know 2/4 wolves at a minimum were indeed female. I'll be watching him closely.

Okay. I'll be back in a few hours.

[tar-ancalime]

Glirdan:

DAY 1

#15 says that double lynches are useful to the wolves

#41 responds to Ang, overly heated, but that's in character for Glirdan

#44 defends tgwbs for his self-vote

#45 nothing of substance

#82 defends Farael against me; suspects Garin as part of an if-we-lynch-tar-ancalime scenario. Where did this come from?

#85 responds to Garin, who was responding to his #82

#90 says he'll probably vote for Garin

#95 sums up the votes so far; votes (fourth) for Garin, saying "his fate is sealed" and "I'm probably wrong on this"

#98 explains his vote farther: he meant to vote for Garin all along but didn't realize how many others still had yet to vote (?)

#101 nothing of substance; refers to himself as a villager

DAY 2

#167 offers to analyze Valier and Caranlondien

#168 analysis of Valier; questions why she voted for him instead of Formendacil

#171 analysis of Caranlondien; casts suspicion on her by misreading her post about "the true lumberjack" as referring to Anguirel; says this makes her vote for Ang look suspicious

#192 apologizes to Caranlondien for #171; defends his new, more active posting style; suspects Naria for being quiet

#235 a smorgasbord of defenses, accusations, and strategy. Here's a sample:
I'm not so sure that they would completely forget about framing the rest of us. But I do agree that they probably far more interested in findig the Seers then framing us. Yet, I think that they would (subconciously mind you) still attempt to frame others. I find that this would be a pretty good way of smoking out a Seer. If someone attacked one who was an innocent and the Seer knew that person was innocent, I believe that the automatic reaction would be to defend that person. In doing so, the Wolves would go for that person. That seems to be the case with what happened to Ang.
Defends his "new style" again, more than once. Reads Lhuna's "damned if I do, damned if I don't" comment as a confession--this looked silly at the time, but now I'm wondering how he knew that.
After a quote from Formendacil, regarding Samwise, Glirdan says he's suspicious of Gurthang. Huh?
Says Cailin and Formendacil are the Lovers; accuses Cailin of being jealous of all the attention Lhuna is getting.
Defends himself against Eomer; this is the most serious matter in the post and he leaves it till last. Eomer is saying that Ang's death looked bad for Glirdan (Ang voted for Glirdan on Day 1.) Looks much more relevant after Eomer's death, no?

#243 says he'll correct the error in #235 (in which he accuses Gurthang instead of Formendacil; the error stands). This error, imho, makes #235 look even stranger: it means he's accusing Formendacil+Lhuna and Formendacil+Cailin of being Lovers. Says he's not surprised at the suspicion against him.

#245 votes for Naria for being quiet

DAY 3

#338 attributes my statement to Thinlomien (maybe not so bad, but it does cheese me off); weighs in on the early version of tgwbs's plan (says it's unlikely that the wolves will continue to attack a female each night, using Ang's death as evidence); defends himself against Eomer again. Again, this is the most serious thing in the post, and again he buries it at the bottom. Says he's going to analyze spawn and eonwe.

#340 analysis of eonwe. I thought this was odd at the time, and I still think it's odd now. Eonwe was (a) innocent, and (b) lynched. No need to figure out why he's dead from his posts; wouldn't it make more sense to look at his accusers? Could this be another attempt to seem helpful without really contributing anything? (Someone else mentioned this in reference to his analyses of Valier and Caranlondien, each of whom had posted about three times at the time of his investigations.)

#351 a partial analysis of spawn's posts; draws no conclusions at all but notes that spawn said he was "acting like usual."

#399 finishes his analysis of spawn; decides that she likely didn't dream of either Lhuna or Kath.

#412 says he doesn't know whom to vote for. Notes that there are cases against both Lhuna and Kath; says there's not much pointing to Kath as a wolf; thinks Kath or Naria is the (non-wolf) Lover.

#414 says Kath is a wolf and votes for her

DAY 4

not here yet

This looks pretty bad for Glirdan in my opinion. I'd welcome alternative analyses, though. (I've made my editorial comments as I went along.)

[Caranlondien]

Tar-Ancalime's analysis of Glirdan puts him on my top suspect list. So right now I'm most suspicious of TGWBS, Formendacil, and Glirdan. As for innocents, I'm inclined to trust Gurthang and tar-ancalime; as someone else said, I'd like to trust LMP, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be back in a few hours, hopefully with a more substantial analysis.

[Lalaith]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan
I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly.

??? Care to explain a bit? (Lommy)

Yes, that puzzled me too. Then I realised he meant "eliminate from my suspect list" rather than "lynch".

Anyway, more thoughts in a moment.

[littlemanpoet]

What of TGWBS? On the one hand, Lhuna’s willingness to leave him in the lurch, lynchwise, on day one, speaks for his innocence. But his actions yesterDay don’t look good to me. With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men. Is he (as I think Farael, who knew the wolves, actually said!) lone male wolf among three females, and is this his way of proving to his lady friends that he is not a traitor?I think so. Who but a werewolf would make finding the Lovers top priority?

One other point. The Day before yesterDay, we had three unlikely babes in the wood – LMP, Form and Samwise – all seemingly realising with shock that lovers would reveal things to each other. I wondered whether this wide-eyed innocence was a ploy by at least one of them – to the extent that I re-posted my surprise, in a deliberately barbed way, hoping to gauge the reaction it got.Quite simply, I had not thought about it until then. Sorry for taking offense at your offensive (to the male gender) post. :p Actually, your little test was flawed, because now you can't be sure whether we three reacted to your male bashing or your query as to the three of us. Too bad; I would have liked to know.

Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?Good question. She is one of the more suspicious based on voting records. More about that when I can compile my notes...

And all praise to the late Eomer. Agreed. His voting record (except for Day 1 when I did no better) was stellar.

I am currently most uncomfortable with Form, TGWBS and LMP, in that order.Good. A healthy analysis of the three of us should point you in the right direction.

[Valier]

Well I am so glad that the double lynch worked out as well as it did! I was not overly suspisious of Kath...but that shows how much I know. Eomer was not someone I thought the wolves would kill yet. I shall be back in a few hours to go over things.( gotta go to class):D

[littlemanpoet]

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.I agree. I haven't trusted a word she's said since the beginning of Day 2.

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.Thank you for your confidence; and I agree with most of this, with one major exception: Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.Glirdan's & Lalaith's voting records are not as good as Formy's. Lalaith has said some really questionable things regarding the whole Kath/Farael/Eomer thing, and her voting record is worthy of question. We need to see more of the substantive and helpful kinds of posts from Lalaith in order to allay suspicion of her, should she deserve our confidence.

[littlemanpoet]

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.
Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

[Cailín]

Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Elempi, I get what you are saying and I would agree... but in the past the guy who be wolvish has been more than able to completely delude me. I just cannot rhyme this obvious wolf with the TGWBS I know. This might be my mistake, however.

For good order, we could (double)lynch him toDay. Innocent TGWBS would thoroughly deserve it for his stubbornness ( :p ) and we can afford to make a mistake.

Your analysis of Glirdy, tar-ancalime, is helpful, though it is perhaps more interesting to see what the known wolves and Farael have said with regards to him. Either way, he looks pretty bad from my point of view.

[Cailín]

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

Cross-posted. We seem to be thinking along the same lines.

[littlemanpoet]

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.While I take nothing that you say at face value, I think you're right about Farael for certain. He knew who all the werewolves are, and may have let something slip in his desperate aggression against Kath.

[Lalaith]

Aha! I found the accusation of tgwbs as lone male wolf - it was actually made by Lhuna, not Farael.

for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

What to make of this, I wonder? It sounds like she's making an accusation, almost...
But I agree that Farael's posts should be combed through carefully. I get the feeling he was past caring by the end, blurting out all sorts of things.

I'm trying to be as fair as I can to all suspects, and I'm still stuck on the first day voting problem.
When Lhuna voted, failing to break a tie, between Garin and Guy, we still had Samwise, Gurthang and spawn left to vote. It was in fact Samwise who broke the tie. Gurthang jumped in and voted without looking, and Spawn, with no more double-lynch to worry about, voted for Eonwe.
The next day, Lhuna actually says she's going to be looking hard at anyone who voted for tgwbs. Reckless behaviour indeed for a pair of wolves.

If only Guy hadn't been almost as febrile as Farael yesterday, I'd be writing him off as a probable innocent.

PS LMP, I'm sorry you misinterpreted me. I just said "three intelligent men", because you are, how is that male-bashing??? :confused:

[Lalaith]

Continuing the spirit of fairness...

Could this be another attempt to seem helpful without really contributing anything? (Someone else mentioned this in reference to his analyses of Valier and Caranlondien, each of whom had posted about three times at the time of his investigations.)



Tar-a - Spawn had in fact asked someone to analyse the quiet ones and Glirdan offered to. I'm not disputing the rest of what you say...

[the guy who be short]

LMP - I have no idea why you've set yourself so hopelessly against me. The easy thing to do would be to suspect you, but to be honest, I consider you innocent. I know how you can be...

As for the Lovers, you seem to have it set in your mind that finding them would be a priority for the wolves. Not so. The Lovers aim is to survive together. This means that as long as the Villagers outnumbered the Wolves, the Lovers would be alligned with the Wolves against the Village.

In addition, it would be easier to find the lovers because there had to be one in the 8 men. What people did not grasp yesterday was that the plan was not a statistical substitute for analysis, but a supplement. I was confident, by analysis, of Gurthang and Eomer's innocence, so that the lovers would most likely be caught in two days.

As to why I wished to find the Lovers - as well as them being alligned against the village, I saw other strengths in the idea. Catching them would be easier than catching wolves because there had to be one amongst the men. And once we had the lovers, we would have a wolf, from which we could use analysis to find the others.

The fatal flaw of the plan that I did not notice, and I later acknowledged, was that it would enable the wolves to pick which women to pit their she-wolves against.

[the guy who be short]

Before I get any serious Wolf or Lover analysing done, I wish to put forward my thoughts on what's going on.

I still - obstinately, you may say - do not believe spawn dreamt of Lhuna. This may be because I didn't think so before, and I have not checked since. I'll need to look over this, but I recall there being only very tenuous arguments for this.

Farael attacked Kath to save Lhuna. Yes, I'm going over the obvious, but hear me out. Not only did he know Kath was a wolf, he did this to make himself look like the Seer so that the village would trust him. However, as his argument was so extremely poor, I thought him most likely to be a wolf. At least I was right in my belief that he was an enemy of the village.

There was suspicion on me before yesterday. It is interesting to note that Eomer - my most trusted ally yesterday, and the only one to speak for double lynchings, which, whatever you all may think, is still a good strategy statistically - died in the Night. Perhaps this is my ego flexing itself, but I think part of the reason may have been to destroy my support. I am confident that I am being set up.

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them.

If the village decides that I should die, I will comply and leave you, for I feel that as long as I live, I shall cause confusion. However, If it is the case, I wish to impose conditions. The accused are not usually allowed conditions, but I feel mine are so fair that to deny them would be a sign of wolvery.

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning.

That is all. If you decide to lynch me, toDay or any other day, that condition will apply, unless I state otherwise.

[Thinlómien]

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them. Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the point.

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning. You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.
Guy, whether it's your intention or not, and whether you're a wolf or not, you seem very wolvish.

Yes, that puzzled me too. Then I realised he meant "eliminate from my suspect list" rather than "lynch". Thanks. Though I would like to hear the same (or something else) from Glirdan himself.

[the guy who be short]

I have chosen to analyse Kath for two reasons. The first is that, as a non-lover, her aim is actually to help the wolves. This makes it easier to find them through her words.

The second is that I am pressed for time, and she has barely posted.

Post 16

Opposes herself to double lynchings in al but rare situations. :p

Post 63

Doesn't make sense. Claims it is easier to find the wolf lover than the ordo lover. Slightly, maybe.

Post 75

Votes for Eomer. Alas. Also attacks Garin. All innocents so far.

Post 198

Says she is not a wolf who killed Anguirel knowing it would lead back to her.

Attacks Farael. Says her vote for Eomer came before LMP's.

Post 256

Nothing important

Post 259

First substantial post.

Attacks Eonwe and Naria for being quiet. This may point to Naria's innocence.

Says she will not make a deal of Glirdan changing his style. Points to his guilt.

Eomer - Says nothing in a lot of words. Doesn't suspect him.

Farael - Sees nothing wolvish

Lhuna - Says she is a misguided innocent, too wolvish to be a wolf.

Votes Eonwe - says she doesn't want to keep a tie between Eonwe, Lhuna, Eomer and Naria. However, there were still 10 votes left to go at this point; I think she really influenced Eonwe's lynching. Was her eagerness only to save Lhuna? Was she that worried for Lhuna? We know Eomer was innocent, so perhaps she was nervous because Naria is also a wolf? This makes me look at Naria quite harshly.

Post 333

Says she wasn't aware spawn suspected her so strongly. She didn't, of course. Farael invented this.

Again argues against double lynchings.

Says my idea of lynching all the men is dangerous. Darn right.

Says she will discuss Lhuna later.

Post 337

Analyses spawn.


Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them.
Probably why spawn was killed. Not due to dreams.

Says Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín are possibly Seer dreams and innocent. Don't know what to think here.

Acuses Farael.

Says there is good reason to suspect Lalaith and Naria.

Post 405

Says spawn maybe dreamt of Glirdan and found him innocent.

Says spawn suspects Naria and that she may be a wolf, but finds it unlikely.

Votes Lhuna, and says if she is a wolf, which she knew she should be, we should view Lommy and Formen as innocent. Interesting.



I am cross-posting with everybody since my last post. If you'll excuse me, I now wish to examine some voting records.

[the guy who be short]

Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the pointIf I am being framed, they need to influence the village to see it.

You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.I intentionally said that the village should have the right to choose who to double-lynch with me. Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent? By allowing the village to choose who to lynch alongside me, I ensure that there is no influence from me. I cannot nominate Seer candidates or enemy innocents to lynch. It comes down to the village - and they should be analytical enough to find a wolf.


Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Naria
Lalaith

[the guy who be short]

I stole the beginning of this from you.

Yesterday.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Well... this tells us a lot. Whoever the wolves are, they were willing to sacrifice two of their number. I shall have to dig deepers.

[Thinlómien]

Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent? Yes I do. I don't trust my own wits very much (especially know when I actually don't have any clear suspects except you), and you, as a friend of mathemathics should understand that it's probable that we will lynch an innocent alongside with you, if we're going to lynch you.

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.

[the guy who be short]

On retrospect, that tells us a little. Wolves knew that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. Those voting soon after me would probably have voted Farael to save Lhuna if they were wolves.

This points to Lommy's, Formen's, Lal's, Samwise's and Celuien's innocence. Which handily leaves me with two suspects.

Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Naria

[Cailín]

Come on, TGWBS.

The wolves would have no interest in 'setting you up' seeing as they are down to two in a still numerous village, there is still a Seer out there and you have done a great job in making yourself look suspicious. Whoever the kill would have been toNight, you had some explaining to do.

I think basically everyone is more or less arguing for your death right now, and since we are still twelve innocents (I hope I got the math right this time) you'd have a hard time finding a wolf amongst them.

As I said before, I am absolutely not certain whether you are guilty or not and indeed I'd sooner lynch Glirdan than you. However, clearing up confusion is always helpful, most villagers won't rest before you are lying beneath the ground and since I have supported double-lynchings from the start I shall gladly assent to your final request.

Also, the voting could tell us something. The wolves may have easily voted for Lhuna, suspecting her to be the Lover-wolf, but I am hesitant to accept that they would have made a double-lynching possible. Caranlondien, littlemanpoet and possibly Lalaith and Samwise would look bad if that theory is indeed plausible.

edit: cross-posted with TGWBS' message above.

[the guy who be short]

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.Very well. But then I don't think I'll have time to look into day 2s voting.

Innocent:
Gurthang - He has a good track record. He sealed the double lynch. Even before this, I analysed him and came up with an innocent. Possibly my strongest innocent.
tar-ancalime - Seems to analyse Glirdan well. Makes sense.
littlemanpoet - I can't see a wolf-LMP being so courageous. All I can see is LMP, once again being completely and totally sure of himself, true to his nature. And I'd trust a wolf-LMP not to be so irrational, and be far more careful.
Thinlómien - Voting.
Formendacil - Voting
Lalaith - Voting
SamwiseGamgee - Voting

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan - See above. Kath's mentions, plus tar's analysis.
Naria - Kath's mentioning her, plus this:

All in all, I have to truthfully say that I am torn between these two--I just don't know right now--I'll wait a bit and see if anything else happens.
In post 420. It makes me uneasy.

[Lalaith]

I'd like to see more analysis of a wider range of people. I've got a feeling there's a wolf slipping under the radar.
Valier, Caranlondien, Celuien, Naria, Lommy, for example.....

[Formendacil]

Hmmm...

Interesting night, I can see: Eomer dead, but just an innocent, so at least it's not the Seer who's dead.

So, we have one seer, two wolves, and a gaggle of clueless (or do we have clues? We shan't know until there have been lynchings, I fear...) villagers. In other words, now that we've sorted out that whole messy Lovers business, it's back to business as normal.

The only unfortunate thing for me- and I say this in purest jest- is that with both Lhuna and Kath dead, I'm sent back to the drawing board to look for suspects.

TGWBS has popped up a fair bit in today's conversation as a double-lynch victim. Personally, I can't see him being guilty. I've played with him a few times, and he's deadly cunning, to be sure, but I just can't see this current mode of play as Wolfish. It's too... blatant.

Of course, he could be banking on us thinking that. :rolleyes:

Oh, and before I forget...

Lalaith, in response to your query regarding the "Can Lovers speak of who the Wolves are", I think I missed it the first time round, since I was probably in "skim-read 12 hours of posting" position. The answer is that I simply hadn't thought through the Lover situation too much. I wasn't one, so why bother?

[Lalaith]

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.