Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. [Archive] - Page 3

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 01:44 PM

As per request... Note: I'm new at this, so, like I said, it's long...

Farael

DAY ONE
On the first day, he talks mostly about his suspicions of Anguirel, and I can't find anything else useful, so I shan't do a break-down analysis by post.

DAY TWO
Post #191:
The second day, he comes in defending himself against (A) TGWBS, who was wondering why he hadn't made a suicidal vote, and (B) Eomer, who wondered why Farael had jumped to Kath's defense. His defense doesn't seem to tell us anything important.

He then moves on to accusations. He says that by killing Anguirel, the werewolves implicated him and made Kath seem innocent, because we would think it was obviously a set-up. Later in the day, several people raised concerns about Farael's statement here: Anguirel hadn't really attacked Kath that strongly, so why was it obviously a set-up? Obviously, we now know that Farael thought this because, well, Kath was a werewolf. He makes a strong attack on Kath, probably hoping that once we'd lynched her, we would trust him. His last sentence is:
Anyway, I want to hear some more from Kath… and tar-a, not for her vote last night but because she often makes well argued points yet last night she didn’t.

He mentions tar-a there, and I think this probably clears her of guilt. I doubt very much that Farael would have accused two werewolves so early on; The werewolves would have immediately caught on that he was either the lover or a seer, and killed him.

DAY THREE

Post #288:
Says "I was fearing that" (I think referring to dancing spawn's death, and her turning out to be a Seer). Apologizes for not voting, says he didn't know voting would end so early.

Post #297:
This post analyzes dancing spawn. It seems like he did this mostly to try to point away from Lhuna. Tries to shift suspicion to Kath by arguing that he doesn't understand why dancing spawn would have dreamt of Lhuna in the first place.

Posts #301 & 302:
Tries to defend his attack on Kath. Also says to tar-a that he doesn't think we should make a list of known innocents yet. I can't figure out why he says this (I can't even find tar-a's post that he's responding to.

Post #304:
Responds to Cailin's correction of his facts. Proposes a plan of lynching Kath and saving Lhuna for later.

Post #306:
Cryptic response to Lalaith's claim that if she were a Seer in Nilp's game, she'd dream of Lhuna immediately. Later edits when he realizes why she said this.

Post #310:
Responds to TGWBS, who said he didn't think it likely that any wolves had been dreamt of. Says that "Wolves usually hide in the shadows... or at least, most wolves in the pack do". Continues to argue that we should lynch Kath.

Post #312:
Responds to TGWBS.
And why so shrill? have we stepped on a nerve? we accuse Kath and you accuse us.... why TGWBS?
He's probably just trying to imply that TGWBS and Kath are lovers, but one could also interpret it as him saying that they're both wolves. I'm suspicious of TGWBS to begin with, so I'd like to hear others' opinions on the issue. It should be noted that by this point Farael seemed pretty careless (I mean, his attack on Kath was suspiciously strong).

Post #314:
Cross posted with Cailin.... might be the lack of sleep that I'm not expressing myself properly. I'm just annoyed that I bothered to add a lovely "Post X" before each comment and he went back and must have missed some as I recall to have found more than 3 quotes from Spawn with regards to Kath.
Pretty much just getting defensive.

Post #319:
Defends himself against LMP's suggestion that he could be a desperate lover. Suggests that if we think he is the lover, we should lynch him and Kath or Lhuna and Kath. Probably hoping we won't take him seriously. :D

Cross-posts with tar-a, who points out some flaws in TGWBS's plan.
Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst.
Could he have been telling the truth? That all four wolves are female? I think it's more likely that he didn't want to be killed himself, but we can't eliminate the possibility.

Post #352:
Calls TGWBS's plan "crazy". Probably because he knows he'll be one of the first guys lynched.
if we set out to do it, it's a win for the werewolves. No, they won't be too silent, but of course they won't be too loud... the female werewolves just have to go with the flow of the village, discussing calmly the death of every single male, even their furry counterparts. Given that they know who the males are (and given that the male werewolves will probably accept their faith and make the sacrifice) they'll accuse them, look innocent enough for the rest of the village and sail easily for the win.
This implies there are male wolves. Although he might just be saying this because I'd already made the point.

Responds to Kath, who had pointed out his seemingly apologetic vote for Anguirel on Day One.

Post #360:
More stuff against TGWBS's plan. I'm assuming Farael did know who the wolves were (I think by now we'd all agree that it's the first thing Lhuna told him). The way he's arguing with TGWBS, it doesn't seem like he's a wolf. It seems like honest argument ("you just don't see it, do you?") But of course he wouldn't act like he know TGWBS was a werewolf, even if he did know it.

Post #366:
Answer's Eomer's defense of TGWBS's plan. Says Eomer is beginning to worry him. Possibly accusing an innocent just so the wolves don't catch on to him, or maybe he, too, thought Eomer was the other seer, and wanted to cast suspicion on him so that accusations towards Lhuna wouldn't be trusted.

Post #370:
Corrects himself as to [B]Eomer[B]'s stance on TGWBS's plan. (Eomer said he would suspect people who were against double-lynchings, not people against the plan)

Post #386:
TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village.
Trying to cast suspicion on an innocent? Possibly. Might also be accusing another wolf... but is that likely? Might he not be afraid that the wolves would kill him that night? Or might he feel safe, knowing that the wolves could see he was under suspicion and wouldn't kill him, since it would lead back to those he had accused?

Post #389:
Wants us to lynch Kath and then TGWBS a day later. If TGWBS were a wolf and Farael had gained any support for this plan, surely it would have meant Farael's death that night. Then again, he was desperate at this point. His attack on TGWBS is mostly based on his wanting to root out the lovers, which Farael says is mainly the concern of a wolf. But of course that's what he would say; He was one of the Lovers!

Post #398:
Out of desperation, I think, makes an attack on Samwise. As I've said, I think that he was pretty desperate at this point. Farael aside, I've been inclined to trust Samwise so far.

Post #402:
States plan again: lynch Kath and then TGWBS

Post #406:
Tries to ease suspicion by saying Lhuna is still on his suspect list.

Post #430:
Votes for Kath, first saying he'd rather lynch her and TGWBS than her and Lhuna. Also accuses Formendacil of being one of the lovers, with Kath as, possibly, the other Lover.
Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.
He italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something, probably just to imply that even if Form didn't die when Kath did, he might still be guilty. Farael was probably just trying to get suspicion on anyone else at this point.

Post #431:
Final plea to vote for Kath and not Lhuna

My main conclusion here is that you can take any statement and argue that he was telling the truth or lying just as convincingly, so I don't think we should use his posts as our MAIN reason for a lynching. (Great conclusion to come up with after spending so long on this :rolleyes: ) I've already expressed concern about TGWBS, so I'd appreciate thoughts from people who haven't already got opinions on him (although I suppose we all have opinions on everyone).

Okay, analysis over. Sorry it's so long, sorry if I've missed anything. But here it is, hope it's helpful.

Cailín

03-21-2006, 01:55 PM

Oh wonderful, Caranlondien. Whether you turn out to be an innocent or not, I must compliment you on your fine analyses so far.

I know what I have learned if TGWBS turns out to be a wolf as well... Do not tell your innocent lover the identities of your fellows. It can only harm them in the end. :)

Be back soon.

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 02:01 PM

Lommy - If you wish to be taken seriously, I strongly advise you to actually read what went on.

Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

TGWBS - not taking sides in the Lhuna - Kath -debate.I was vehemently against lynching Kath as the plan made absolutely no sense.

Valier and especially Naria: probably foresaw Kath's doom and jumped on the bandwagon to seem innocent.By this point, the village had decided to double lynch Kath and Lhuna. Those votes followed the plan and are not at all remarkable.

However, this seems to speak in your favour. I can't see a wolf being so utterly careless and...

Be polite.

I was, Abrahadam. Sigh. Alter-egos...

[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us somethingI find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

since TGWBS has managed to get me back under suspicion (though I can't blame him, since I've been accusing him for days)
You remain, Caran, in my neutral category.

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.
Good point, and one that I feel points to your innocence.

Thinlómien

03-21-2006, 02:05 PM

By this point, the village had decided to double lynch Kath and Lhuna. Those votes followed the plan and are not at all remarkable. Hmmm... That's why they are - they just followed a plan, they didn't have to decide themselves. A good choice for a wolf - you can't be accused of it afterwards.

I have to vote very soon.

Cailín

03-21-2006, 02:10 PM

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

I must agree with you here. Why would Farael take the trouble to italicise (is that a word?) this?

On the one hand, I doubt he'd attack more than one wolf in one Day. That would be an act of desperation... but Farael could have been trying to tell us something.

It is curious indeed. I won't forget.

Thinlómien

03-21-2006, 02:15 PM

I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point. I stand corrected; I read his post and understand your point and actually agree with you. I don't still rule out the possibility that he's trying to kill Kath in order to seem very innocent. Or maybe he believed Kath to be the lover-wolf, and preferred to get rid of her instead of Lhuna. You never know.

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 02:21 PM

I will have to vote soon next hour or so) and am not sure whether to vote for Naria, Glirdan or myself.

I'm leading towards Naria because something doesn't feel right. Infact, I'm not sure what that is...

I feel an analysis coming on. You realise you should be doing Latin, don't you?

Shut up, Abrahadam.

Thinlómien

03-21-2006, 02:26 PM

TGWBS - I'm probably going to vote you. If you're having anything to say to your defense, please do it soon for I can't be online for long anymore.

Thinlómien

03-21-2006, 02:30 PM

It's a goodbye and goodnight from me.

++the guy who be short

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 02:32 PM

>Quote:
>Originally Posted by Caran
>[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something<

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

Actually, I pointed it out for a reason; because I thought it might be significant, and I wanted to see what others thought. But I'm confused now; Farael said that when talking about Formendacil, and you say you think it's significant. What about when you said:

>Quote:
>Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.<
I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.
What do you think of Formendacil? Within the same post, you seem to be defending him and accusing him. Maybe I misinterpreted one of the things you said...

Edit: Distinguishing betweeen TGWBS quoting me and me quoting him

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 02:33 PM

Post 29

Says little of importantce.

Post 103

Votes for me, as she would normally vote for Nilp in such a situation, and I'm filling in for him. This is actually very normal for her, but she could be hiding behind it. There is never, of course, reason to lynch people based on character.

Post 220

Nothing

Post 225

Claims to be surprised that Lover's can divulge wolvish info to one another.

Post 280

Very upset that Thinlo thinks she is scary. Jumps on Eonwe bandwagon.

Post 420

Says my plan will not work. It would.

Trusts Farael a little. With the amount of evidence he gave?

Sees that people suspect Kath, so claims that there have been "damning posts" convincing her of Kath's guilt. Righty...

Also suspects Lhuna. This is where she states she'll wait to see what happens before voting, which unnerves me.

Post 439

~

Post 442

Confused.

Post 443

Votes Kath on Farael's advice. Says there's only one way for somebody to know somebody else's role with certainty. Didn't we discuss the lovers earlier?

Post 449

Picks on Gurthang for using general instead of specific terms.

She really seems to have said little worth saying...

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 02:36 PM

Caranlondien - I am more in favour of Formen's innocence than his guilt, because I can't see a wolf bringing Kath into the equation. While it may be significant, I think Farael my just have been confusing us.

So, one vote for me. Please remember my request if you decide to follow in Thinlo's footsteps. Only a wolf would think double lynchings could possibly be detrimental to the village.

Valier

03-21-2006, 02:37 PM

I just did a large analysis on the voting and something happened and I erased it!!!!!!!!aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh Will do it all over again.....

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 02:43 PM

++Naria

Because the way we're overlooking her worries me.

Valier

03-21-2006, 02:50 PM

Ok I think looking at the voting will help us greatly today.

There a few spots on the list that could be thought of as safe zones for wolves in my opinion.These being:

Lalaith and Samwise: Both voted for Lhuna early knowing there are more votes to come, perhaps at least one of these could be a wolf.Their two votes could be seen as unfantastic in their placement, which is good if your a wolf.

Celuien: This vote for Kath would only be the second for her so also a safe spot for a wolf.

Tar and Glirdan:These votes again for Kath are not first,but not last either.This is good cover.

Thin and TGWBS: these votes being first could be good or could suggest two wolves eager to be rid of the lovers. These two could be the wolves and they planned to vote first and for each lover hoping to double lynch both and not seems suspisious for voting both one way.

I had alot more, but I find it hard to do it all over again. I could be grasping at straws, but I think I may have something.....Back later to explain more.

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 03:03 PM

Well, TGWBS is perplexing, that's for sure.

I just don't know what to think. Of course his request that we double-lynch is kind of awkward. I mean, if we suspect him enough to lynch him, should we really take advice from him? If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

littlemanpoet

03-21-2006, 03:03 PM

The paranthesis following the vote getter indicates whether the voter was 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or later to vote for the vote getter on that Day.

Player . . . . . . . . Day 1 . . . . . . . . Day 2 . . . . . . . . Day 3 . . . . . . . accuracy

tar-ancalime . . . Farael (1) . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Kath (3) . . . . . . 2 of 3
Caranlondien . . Anguirel (2) . . . . Lhuna (4) . . . . . Lhuna (6) . . . . . 2 of 3
Thinlómien. . . . . Glirdan (2) . . . . Naria (2) . . . . . . Lhuna (1) . . . . . 1? of 3

Samwise . . . . . Garin (5)* . . . . . Lhuna (2) . . . . . .Lhuna (4) . . . . . 2 of 3
Valier . . . . . . . . . Glirdan (1) . . . . .Eonwe (5) . . . . . Kath (6) . . . . . . 1? of 3
Lalaith . . . . . . . . .Guy (2) . . . . . . .Eonwe (1) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . 1 of 3/ 2 of 3

Glirdan . . . . . . . Garin (4) . . . . . . Naria (1) . . . . . . Kath (4) . . . . . . .1? of 3
Naria . . . . . . . . .Guy (3) . . . . . . . . Eonwe (6) . . . . Kath (7) . . . . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3
Celuien . . . . . . . Garin (3) . . . . . . Samwise (1) . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . .1? of 3

Formendacil . . . .Guy (4) . . . . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . . . .Kath (1) . . . . . . 2 of 3/3 of 3
Guy . . . . . . . . . . .Guy (1)§. . . . . Eomer (1) . . . . . . Farael (1)ª . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3§
Gurthang . . . . . . LMP (2) . . . . . . didn't vote . . . . . .Lhuna (8)± . . . 1 of 2

Cailín . . . . . . . . . Lalaith (1) . . . . .Eonwe (2) . . . . . . didn't vote ± . . . 0 of 2
LMP . . . . . . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . . Lhuna (7) . . . . . 2 of 3

* indicates that Samwise broke a double lynch tie.
ª indicates that Guy voted for the ordo-Lover instead of for a werewolf.
§ indicates that Guy voted for himself.
± indicates that this helped ensure the double lynch of two werewolves and the death of the ordo Lover.

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf, then Formy and Naria look even better (and Guy worse).

Naria improves even more in that she aided in the endeavor to double lynch the two werewolves and the ordo Lover.

Gurthang and Cailíin look pretty good for the same reason.

tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Samwise (and Elempí for that matter) look reasonably innocent.

Guy looks real bad.

The ones that this chart leaves in doubt are Thinlomien, Valier, Glirdan, and Celuien.

EDIT: sorry for the line-wrap; did the best I could with this format :rolleyes:

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 03:13 PM

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf...

Guy looks real bad.
Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.
You've lost me. I'm innocent, and I want at least one potential wolf to go down with me if I must.

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

Lalaith

03-21-2006, 03:19 PM

I can get online early tomorrow and vote towards the end of the day. Don't know if that will help, mind you.
I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 03:23 PM

Sorry, my blabbering in my last post was confusing. What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

As for statistics, I'm sick of hearing about them. Believe me, I'm a scientific person, and I'm all in favor of math. But here our often-flawed reasoning is at work, too. Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday, our chances of hitting a werewolf increase. But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

EDIT: Typo, and cross-posted with Lalaith

Gurthang

03-21-2006, 03:28 PM

I'm terribly sorry, I don't have a lot of time. Hopefully, before the end of the day, I'll have time to read through and see what's going on. I'll be looking especially at Glirdan. My main three suspects are dead, and I hadn't really looked at anyone else, but I seem to remember Eomer talking about Glirdan. I'll have to see, thought.

Formendacil

03-21-2006, 03:29 PM

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

They do?

Most double-lynchings I've seen have been two ordos. Occassionally you'll get a Wolf as well. Yesterday's doublelynch, while extremely fortuitious for us, was a first, I'm sure, in Tol-in-Gaurhoth history. However, catching two Werewolves means that the number of Werewolves in the village has been halved, while the overall numbers of the village are still over half the original number- meaning that the chances of catching a Werewolf, based on simple stats, have gone DOWN since yesterday.

Which does not mean that a Double-lynch could not catch us a Werewolf- it just means that I refute TGWBS's statement here, and reaffirm my dislike of double-lynchings. Yes, it may catch you a Werewolf, but it will also kill off an innocent.

Fortunately, our village is not yet so low in numbers that we are desperately in need of every Innocent we can lay hands on, but it still seems rather wastefully imprudent to me to be lynching people off every which way we turn.

Anyway...

Having ranting against the ills of double-lynchings, let me say what I'm thinking about TGWBS, yet again:

He's innocent. At least, I think he is. Past experience leads me to think that he's being as innocently normal as we can expect. TGWBS is certainly capable of bold strokes such as he's been accused of, but I somehow don't think that he's guilty of them this time. If he is, then the Werewolves are in serious trouble, with two of their number gone.

Naria's name has also come up a fair bit today as being potentially wolfish. I'm much more hesitant to declare her innocent than TGWBS, although she has been playing to form. However, Naria's style is, by its very nature, rather quiet and cryptic. It wouldn't take much to change suspicious Innocent to suspicious Wolf in her case. I think her a more likely wolf than TGWBS, but I'm not sure yet that she's wolvish...

Formendacil

03-21-2006, 03:30 PM

Crossposted, for the record, with two Gurthang posts.

Lalaith

03-21-2006, 03:40 PM

Two? I see only one...

the guy who be short

03-21-2006, 03:41 PM

I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.You don't want to vote for me.

Yes, you do. He's a dirty werewolf!

Quiet, Abrahadam! This isn't a good time.

It's never a good time with you.

Shhh...

What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).Fairy Nuff. This sounds logical.

In any case, I think we need a free vote because this stuck out to me:

Hmm. I can't find the exact quote. Basically, having rigid voting schemes will result in wolves being able to use the scheme - "I had to vote to keep with the double lynching plan - to escape detection.

So a free vote today, for later analysis.

And if I am killed and proved innocent, double lynchings thereafter. Sound's fair.

But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.
Naria doesn't have to be the other lynchee. I simply view her as more suspicious than others. Left to its own devices, I believe the village would pick Glirdan as its other lynchee.

Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday...This isn't random. It is maths in conjunction with analysis. We pick the two most suspicious.

They do?Yes. You refuting this, you bringing up former games, you doing anything cannot change this. If there is x chance of catching a wolf on any day, then double lynching results in a 2x chance of catching one.

And now I retire for the night. Farewell.

Formendacil

03-21-2006, 03:52 PM

Two? I see only one...

Whoops!

That "other Gurthang" post was a Caralondien post, I guess...

Which serves me right for posting about cross-posting before reading what was wrote.

littlemanpoet

03-21-2006, 04:01 PM

Post #389:
Wants us to lynch Kath and then TGWBS a day later. If TGWBS were a wolf and Farael had gained any support for this plan, surely it would have meant Farael's death that night. Then again, he was desperate at this point. His attack on TGWBS is mostly based on his wanting to root out the lovers, which Farael says is mainly the concern of a wolf. But of course that's what he would say; He was one of the Lovers!

This was valuable for me to read. I remember that when I read Farael's comment about the wolves being more concerned to find the Lovers than the innocents, that my mind had been leaning that way too; but maybe Farael's words convinced me of something that does not hold water. I'll have to think about that. If it's not true, then my suspicion of Guy is suddenly not as strong as it was. He is posting a lot of sense, finally! :mad: <LMP stares meaningfully at Guy> Hmmm.... but actually Farael might name the next werewolf to be lynched. So maybe Guy is a werewolf.

littlemanpoet

03-21-2006, 04:08 PM

littlemanpoet

03-21-2006, 04:10 PM

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf...

Guy looks real bad.
Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Missed a few commas in that. Try this:

"If you, like I, conclude that Guy is a werewolf...."

Better? :D

Cailín

03-21-2006, 04:47 PM

I am right now more confused than ever... so a good thing I'll get to sleep on it.

I am not nor have I ever been sure TGWBS is guilty. His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain. Right now I am not convinced of Naria's guilt -she has posted little, but she never has been known as a vocal, helpful player- and see more in lynching Glirdan along with The Guy. That lynching two potential wolves is most beneficial seems obvious to pretty much everyone.

I shall see you all in the morning. May the wisdom of the Prophet aid you in your choice. ;)

Celuien

03-21-2006, 05:37 PM

Sorry for lack of formatting below, but I'm somewhat pressed for time. Hopefully, it's just as good un-bolded.

Glirdan:

DAY 1:

#15: Laments Nilp, says wolves will use double lynching to their advantage. Day one nonsense directed towards Eomer about his being rich and sent to lead the lycans.

Looks pretty much like typical day 1 commentary, though wolf-Kath’s nearly simultaneous denial of double lynching (unless two wolves are identified by dream) is interesting.

#41: Says that he and Ang are the only sane villagers, makes a big deal over being asleep at night to find Nilp dead in the morning in respose to Valier‘s accusation of the unemployed.

Hmm. Sort of an extreme response to Valier, especially since it was directed at both of our jobless residents.

#44: Suggests leaving TGWBS alone

Not a bad idea. I’d agree with it myself.

#45: announcement of cross posting with Gurthang.

#82: Defends TGWBS and Farael. Accueses Garin of hiding behind an innocent tar-a.

#85: Back and forth with Garin. Says that he’s being “being very contradictive and probably confusing” by quoting rules, apologize for said confusion and retracts the statement. Wonders why Garin is being so defensive.

#95: Votes for Garin

#98: Says his vote is not apologetic, as had been suggested by Garin in 97. Makes this odd statement:

Ok, I voted for Garin because I've been meaning to for quite some time now. But then I realised that when I agreed with him that his fate is probably sealed, I realised that there were still quite a few other people that have to vote and that he may not get lynched toDay.

Trying to make a throwaway vote? Trying to cover tracks when Garin would be found innocent?

#101: Says he’s going to sleep.

DAY 2:

#167: Promises analysis of Caralondien and Valire
#168: Analysis of Valier, which he says doesn’t; get him far. Wonders why she voted for him instead of Fordmenacil.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.

#192: Says that he’s playing more boldly than usual and likes it. Suspects Naria for unnerving quietness.

#235: Oft cited comment to Lhuna, “Is this a confession?” Suspects Gurthang and Lhuina of being Lovers. Agrees that votes may have been cast to save potential Lovers Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Reiterates that he has changes his style. Also accuses Cailin and Gurthang of being potential Lovers. Asks Eomer why he would attack Ang as a wolf after being accused since it makes him look suspicious. (Replied to by Eomer in 237, where he points out Gliry is jumpy over the accusation considering it was much more focused on Kath than on him).

#243: Continues to say that he would not have attacked Ang if he were a wolf because it would brig too much suspicion on to him.

#245: Votes for Naria on the basis of her being suspiciously quiet.

Defended by wolf-Lhuna in 269 (where she also quotes her day 1 defense of innocent-Garin and him).

DAY 3:

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.

#340: Analysis of Eonwe.

Agree with others that there wasn’t much point to doing this.

#351: Summary of spawn‘s posts.

#399: Completed spawn analysis. Says that he doesn’t find evidence of a Kath or Lhuna dream, thinks that spawn voted for Lhuna on instinct and evidence gathering.

Still doesn’t make it clear if he finds Kath of Lhuna suspicious.

#412. Doesn’t know who to vote for. Now supports a double lynch. Says there are cases against Lhuna and Kath and that there’s not much to go on about Kath. Seems to be leaning towards voting for Naria.

I find this post just a bit odd, especially since it covers both sides of the issue with Kath, then attacks Naria mildly. I don’t know. It just feels wishy-washy and base covering. Could just be a confused innocent, but it feels wrong to me.

#414: Decides Kath is a Wolf due to flip flop on Lhuna. And votes for her.

This could speak to Glirdy’s innocence. But it came at a ‘safe’ time (as I acknowledge my vote did) if he wanted to hide his vote. Then again, would a Kath vote have been so safe once Lhuna was revealed to be guilty? That would have immediately brought suspiciousness on Kath voters if the double lynch failed after Lhuna’s identity was revealed.

Incidentally, I don’t know how much yesterday’s voting can really tell us, since there was no choice but the vote wolf for wolf without looking very suspicious. And the rest of us were voting either on genuine suspicion (which turned out to be well founded) or also to help the double lynch plan. And I’m not sure there’s any way to tease it out of the tangle.

Just a few other closing thoughts. I think Gurthang is innocent, based on his ensuring the double lynch last night (though it was pretty obvious that Lhuna was a wolf at the time he voted for her). And I still didn’t find anything to make me suspect lmp as I glanced over his posts.

Glirdan does, however, look very suspicious to me now given Lhuna’s defense of him and the various things a commented on above. I might just vote for him unless something happens to change my mind.

tar-ancalime

03-21-2006, 05:48 PM

First of all, lmp, my heart is bursting with love for your chart! It has columns. It has symbols. I can almost smell the musty book it came out of...oh wait, no, I'm having one of those back-in-witch-graduate-school-instead-of-casting-spells-for-peanuts daydreams again. Got to shake that off.

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

But events transpired to make it expedient for the wolves to get rid of the Lovers early: not only the village's collective suspicion of Lhuna, but Farael's increasingly abrasive and unlikely (for an ordinary villager) attacks on Kath. In fact he gave his identity away when he made the comment about tgwbs not being the Seer: he could confidently say that no Seer who had dreamed of him would accuse him, knowing that the Seer sees the Lover as an ordinary villager.

All this to reiterate the point that if we're going to look at voting record, the Lhuna voters are the ones who should get the attention. God, I'm long-winded.

tar-ancalime

03-21-2006, 05:59 PM

I'm becoming more and more certain that Glirdan is a wolf. Dangerously certain, as I fear I'm becoming singleminded about it. This is not a good thing, as (a) I can't know for sure, of course, and I don't want to ignore evidence to the contrary, and (b) even if I'm right there's still another wolf out there. Anyway, so be it.

Thanks for the alternative analysis, Celuien. I'm with you on most of it but I'd like to raise a couple of points.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.
Glirdan was wrong about this. What Caranlondien said was that the village shouldn't lynch the "true lumberjack" (i.e. herself); she set up Ang as something like a false one who would not be a good replacement for her.

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.
Regarding The Plan: (note, once and for all, that I was against the Plan; but not for this reason) It doesn't matter in this plan if the wolves choose to kill all women or not. However, it's likely that they would, because killing more men would only help the villagers. By lynching all the men, we would be, well, getting rid of the men; wolf kills of men would be helping us to reach our goal. So IF we were going to implement this plan, we could do it without worrying about whether or not the wolves would compliantly kill only women--if they didn't, they'd be helping us.

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 06:40 PM

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

Is it just me or is that contradictory? But I do agree: just because you voted for Lhuna, and I'm in that category too, doesn't mean you should escape a close examination.

Anyway, sorry to come so late in the day. You know, though, how busy we bankers get: money to store, interest to collect and accounts to wind up. And alas it was with sadness that I wound up my good friend Eomer's account today. He was a great customer- very wealthy! As I look back over his superb voting and accusation record I find myself firmly suspecting one man: Glirdan. In a list of four which included two wolves and an ordo lover Eomer mentioned the above as a double-lynch candidate for today. I would, on the transpiring of evidence, agree with Eomer that (a) we should double lynch today and (b) that Glirdan should be one of those double-lynchees. But who should accompany him? Well, the obvious answer is TGWBS, but alas, I think not. Ok, so he's quite confusing and a bit 'out there', but I just don't think he's a wolf. So, it's a support of a double lynch, because I agree that whatever way you do the maths it helps us innocents, with Glirdan as one of those, but not TGWBS accompanying him.

But who, then? Well, without meaning to sound like a convert to the Church of The Guy Who Be Short, I think Naria. She's been quiet, too quiet, and we must be very careful of those wolves who would wish to lurk in the shadows (I think Farael actually said that). Kath was one of those, and I am inclined to think our dear Naria may be too.

Anyway, that's just a quick post. I hope to do more analysis before I vote, but I'd have to admit my mind is almost made up.

Celuien

03-21-2006, 07:04 PM

I'm becoming more and more certain that Glirdan is a wolf. Dangerously certain, as I fear I'm becoming singleminded about it. This is not a good thing, as (a) I can't know for sure, of course, and I don't want to ignore evidence to the contrary, and (b) even if I'm right there's still another wolf out there. Anyway, so be it.

Thanks for the alternative analysis, Celuien. I'm with you on most of it but I'd like to raise a couple of points.

Glirdan was wrong about this. What Caranlondien said was that the village shouldn't lynch the "true lumberjack" (i.e. herself); she set up Ang as something like a false one who would not be a good replacement for her.

Oops. Sorry for the error.

Support for Carnalondien stands, by the way.

Regarding The Plan: (note, once and for all, that I was against the Plan; but not for this reason) It doesn't matter in this plan if the wolves choose to kill all women or not. However, it's likely that they would, because killing more men would only help the villagers. By lynching all the men, we would be, well, getting rid of the men; wolf kills of men would be helping us to reach our goal. So IF we were going to implement this plan, we could do it without worrying about whether or not the wolves would compliantly kill only women--if they didn't, they'd be helping us.

Okay. I guess it would have made more sense for them to even out the ratio and not to aid the village in its quest.

For the record, I was against the plan because it takes attention away from the village women, among whom two beasts have now been found. I forget where I said that before.

And another point against Glirdan. Eomer suspected him and he was two for two on Kath and Lhuna. Could he have been three for three? Maybe.

At first glance from about post 523, TGWBS appears innocent to me, although I haven't reviewed anything from earlier yet. I'll try and come back with some more on him later.

tar-ancalime

03-21-2006, 07:10 PM

++ Glirdan

I just can't imagine anything happening today that would change my mind. I'm in favor of another double, but (as you can see) I feel strongly that Glirdan should be one of the two lucky candidates.

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 07:26 PM

Am I right that we have three votes so far - one for TGWBS, one for Naria, and one for Glirdan?

I'm leaning away from lynching TGWBS toDay. As has been mentioned, he's been helpful lately, and he's looking more innocent than he once did. The only reason I've mentioned him so much toDay is because I did the analysis of Farael, and that's all he talked about apart from Lhuna and Kath. But actually, Farael's focusing on him so much really does make him seem more innocent, the more I think about it, because it would be very risky to run around naming 3/4 of the werewolves.

The person I'm leaning toward lynching is Glirdan. I guess if are going to do a double-lynch, Naria is another good suspect.

The thing about double-lynchings is that yes, it increases a wolf's chances of being lynched, but that's because it increases everyone's chances - Ordos and Gifteds, too. As far as the numbers go, we can afford to lose an Ordo... but, still, I think caution is called for. :D I just couldn't keep myself from saying something more about it; I'm stubborn...

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 07:41 PM

I've been re-reading the posts. I'm going back and forth in my opinion on TGWBS. I sympathize with Cailín:

His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain.

She goes on to say that for the moment she's in favor of lynching Glirdan and TGWBS.

If we're going to do a double-lynch, it's pretty much accepting that we can afford to lose innocents. Maybe it would be better to lynch TGWBS along with someone else, just so that we could move on and discuss something else. Not that I think the discussion today has been a waste, because, well, he is suspicious-looking, gosh darn it!

Celuien

03-21-2006, 08:41 PM

TGWBS:

Day 1:

#32: Immediately starts with the “I’m a wolf. Lynch me!” campaign made (in)famous by the dearly departed Nilp. Appears to just be in character at this point.

#36: Continues to insist he’s a wolf and campaign for votes. Says he isn’t a Lover. At least that much was true. Still looks in character at this point.

#40: Tells us Garin does not want to die. Suggests that we know where to cast our votes. Presumably for him. Again, still looks in character.

Day 2:

#150: Says he’s still a wolf. Says we shouldn’t focus too much on day 1 votes, then proceeds to say he will consider them because they aren’t entirely useless. Huh? Confusing.

#152: Day 1 voting record.

#153: Says we focus too much on Ang and he will be back to consider the voting record. Personally, I think Ang turns out to have been key to finding Kath and Lhuna, regardless of whether or not that’s really why they chose to kill him. Says that there’s a wolf in the voting somewhere since 9/22 received a vote.

Defended by Lhuna in 154.

#161: Suspects spawn and Gurthang for ‘late apathetic votes,” with Gurthang more suspicious than spawn. Says he’s still a wolf (okay, we get it), that Formendacil and Farael look iffy and that lmp looks innocent.

Given that spawn turned out to be the Seer, I wonder if this means anything. Must think it over…

#223: Suspects Eomer for not doing his research and being random with his vote for lmp. Says Eomer causes confusion and chaos. Given that Eomer was right as often as he was, I wonder. Maybe TGWBS really was trying to get rid of a dangerous opponent. Suspects Gurthang and Farael.

#229: Says he’s a wolf. Again. Says lmp can’t be blamed for pointing out the Lovers might share information. Votes for Eomer.

Day 3:

#292: Another werewolf anagram. Promises analysis of spawn, asks for 6 analyses of possible to guarantee at least one innocent in the analyzers.

#307: Spawn analysis. Concludes that an Eonwe dream was more probable than a Lhuna dream. Says spawn could have been killed to protect a wolf-Lhuna but that the wolves might also have been trying to even the gender imbalance. Ultimate conclusion is that spawn’s dream was ambiguous. This is possibly true, but given that we now know Lhuna was a wolf, it look suspicious.

#308: Says Farael does and does not make sense. Sense being that Lhuna was not dreamt of and not-sense being that Kath was. Concludes that Kath is ambiguous as well and that no wolves were dreamt of.

Hmm. Granted, there’s not way for us to know right now what spawn’s dreams were. But we know that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. TGWBS defends both mildly and, well, ambiguously. Looks very, very suspicious.

#311: Spawn quotes. Says they don’t really condemn Kath and that Farael’s and Eomer’s accusations of Kath are making him suspect them.

Worse and worse…

#315: The double lynch all men plan. I don’t think there’s any need to rehash it.

#335: Says Farael is illogical in defending Lhuna over Kath. Yep. And we know why now. Can’t argue here. But then goes on to say those pushing for a Kath lynching look bad. Again, makes him look suspicious in light of what we now know.

#342: Promotes double lynching of the male gender again.

#345: Replies somewhat cryptically to Caralondien’s criticism of his lynching plan. (Originally Posted by Caralondien
In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...

Wonderful percentages those...)

Eomer says that something has changed and that he has faith in TGWBS in 348. The one thing that always drove me batty about Eomer was his cryptic comments, even though I did figure out the lmp vote business. But I can’t figure this one out based on what TGWBS said to this point. We know that Eomer wasn’t a Seer. Maybe this was part of a plan to hide the real Seer from the wolves. I don’t know.

#350: Analysis of Formendacil. Conclusion: suspects him.

#354: Defends his plan. Now says that there might be a case against Lhuna. After Farael has been defending her. Makes sense if he is a wolf and now wants to get rid of the traitor. Says he’d rather get the Lovers, in fact, and would prefer sticking to lynching men.

#356/359/363/377: More about the plan. 363 admits flaws, still thinks Lovers are a big threat, wants everyone to accept double lynching and says that Farael’s evidence against Kath is less than the evidence for the plan.

#374: Continues to defend Kath, says evidence against her is soggy. Possibly true, but again, I’m finding it suspicious.

#380: Finds Gurthang innocent.

#383: Says Seer discussion is dangerous. True.

#385: Points out Naria and Kath’s silence, votes for Farael. Says to double lynch him with Lhuna if possible. Actually, this is brilliant if TGWBS is a wolf. That would have saved wolf-Kath and wasted the double on a Lover who would have died anyway. And Farael’s identity would have been obvious to a wolf at this point.

Then there’s this from Farael in 386:

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village. Of course, others may think that you are a seer who has found something, but I know you are not as I know I'm not a wolf. Thus the question remains, why are you being so manipulative? do you have other interests? all those statistics and the detraction from proper analysis.... quite odd, isn't it?

I wonder if Farael knew something.

Day 4:

Just a general summary instead of post by post. Says we can see Farael’s motives now and that it’s better to look at earlier posts by Lhuna, Kath and Farael than later ones since the later are most likely to be meant for confusion. True statements. Wonders why lmp is against him so much (I think that’s pretty obvious), defends himself about the Kath and Lhuna no-dream theory. Says he doesn’t mind being lynched as long as it’s a double so that he can take a wolf with him since he’s innocent. Analyses Kath. Wonders if he’s being set up. Posts voting list from yesterday and several lists of probable innocents, no idea, and suspicious villagers. Says that Naria hasn’t said much. (Agreed. See below.) Votes for Naria. (Disagree. Despite silence, what she has said doesn’t seem suspicious to me.) At any rate, this makes him look less suspicious if today is taken as an isolated point. But it isn’t isolated, and I can’t get past what he said over the past few days now that I’ve taken a harder look at it. So right now, I’m puzzled over what to do. One the one hand, TGWBS does look very, very fishy…erm…furry. But on the other, today’s posts do seem more like a monumentally wrong innocent than a cornered wolf.
At any rate, I’ll vote for either TGWBS or Glirdan today. I just don’t know which. Actually, TGWBS looks more suspicious overall. It’s just that I feel a little swayed by his posts today.

Since I mentioned her, on to Naria:

Day 1:

#29: In character day 1 chattiness. Comments on Gurthang’s list in post 20. Promises to return before vote time.

#103: Says she is tempted to vote for Garin, but won’t because she thinks he’s just being himself (turns out to have been correct). Says TGWBS’s suicidal vote was stupid and that if he were Nilp, she’d vote for him. So she does.

One of the three (Lalaith, Naria, and Eonwe) suspected by wolf-Lhuna in post 120 on the basis of her TGWBS vote.

Day 2:

#220: Nothing much. A busy day in the village. She’ll be back.

#225: Never thought that the Lovers would share information.

#280: Asks Thinlo why she’s so scary for being quiet. Says she’d prefer to be quiet than confusing and gives a RL reason for absence. Votes Eonwe.

Day 3:

#420: Torn between voting for Kath (just started to suspect) and Lhuna.

#429: Stand off with Gurthang. Doesn’t mean much. Explained in 443 as a ‘funny,’ where she also votes for Kath, apparently thinking he’s the remaining Seer.

#442: Says she’ll look suspicious if the last to vote.

#449: Wonders aloud if Gurthang is a wolf on the basis of pronouns (your instead of our seer).

Overall, doesn’t look suspicious from what she has said, however little. And so I’m not inclined to vote for her, especially when we have characters like Glirdan and TGWBS around.

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 08:49 PM

I now know why I seem to be trusting TGWBS: Eomer, he of provenly good record, seemed to trust him. My reason for trust was was all but subconcious until I reread the posts of our departed tunemeister.

Anyway, I'm about to vote for the obvious choice, but before I do let me make an empassioned plea: double lynch today. It is a gift. We should lynch Glirdan, that I do not argue: his behaviour has been positively wolfish. But who with him? I say Naria. Now I know TGWBS has been acting somewhat suspiciously, but he has made sense. His 'cull the males' was logical, even if I didn't support it, and his analysis over today has been very helpful. I just don't think he's a wolf. They lost half their team yesterday, it wouldn't be a calculated risk for him to suggest lynching him; it'd be suicide.

Anywho, I just think Naria's the kind of player who could go very deep into the game unnoticed, and if the wolves win and she's one and we overlooked her we'll be kicking ourselves. If the second lynch is going to be a 'removal of doubt' lynch- as a few of you seem to be arguing it may well be- then let's get rid of Naria.

Edit: sorry, forgot to add my actual vote! :rolleyes:

++ Glirdan

Celuien

03-21-2006, 08:57 PM

I guess that last post was sort of long. Sorry.

Am I right that we have three votes so far - one for TGWBS, one for Naria, and one for Glirdan?

I think so.

Voting so far:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)

And I have to go now.

++TGWBS

Sorry if you do turn out to be innocent. But you look too suspicious to me after yesterday. Far more so than anyone else.

I support the double lynch of Glirdan if suspicion of him continues to hold.

And so the updated vote is:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)
Samwise-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
Celuien-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 2, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)

EDIT: I missed Samwise's vote while typing this. List corrected above to reflect his vote.

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 08:58 PM

Last post was a cross-post with Celuien. I admit my support of TGWBS isn't reasoned analysis, it's just gut feeling against my better judgement.

Choose who you will, but choose wisely, friends.

Edit: Another x-post. Celuien's last post should read Glirdan: 2; TGWBS: 2; Naria: 1

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 09:00 PM

One day, Celuien, we'll time it right! :D

Celuien

03-21-2006, 09:01 PM

One day, Celuien, we'll time it right! :D

So we will! :D

littlemanpoet

03-21-2006, 09:19 PM

littlemanpoet

03-21-2006, 09:58 PM

LMP, I'm sorry you misinterpreted me. I just said "three intelligent men", because you are, how is that male-bashing???

Thanks to the guy who be furry for the summary of some of Kath's words, trying to get people to be suspicious of Lalaith & Naria. Despite my words earlier toDay that I didn't trust Lalaith, she seems to be honestly searching for the werewolves.

Wow. Five votes cast, eight to go.

Guy 2 - thin & Celuien
Glirdan 2 - tar & Sam
Naria 1 - Guy

That's a lot of votes to cast yet, but there are only two werewolves, so if we develop a consensus with Gurthang (whom I trust based on yesterDay) voting late, we can get a double lynch. Even if we don't get the double lynch, I'm still satisfied with either Guy or Glirdan going down toDay.

Since there are doubts arising in terms of Guy, I will do my part in adding to the consensus in his direction, in large part because I believe that Celuien is right about him.

++ the guy who be short

Note! - - Those who voted for Kath yesterDay are somewhat vindicated, especially those who voted for her late; the werewolves are probably not to be found amongst those numbers because it would have been expedient to save Kath and lynch only Lhuna .... with the proviso that perhaps sacrificing both might be better than sticking out like a sore thumb later as the one or two who saved Kath by pushing Lhuna over the edge alone; so take that for what it's worth. :rolleyes:

And just for the record:

Really look like werewolves to me:
guy
Glirdan

Rather convinced of innocence due to substantive posting all game long:
Cailín
Lalaith
Gurthang

Probably innocent because of their solid help or good voting record all game long:
tar-ancalime
Caranlondien
Samwise
Formendacil

Just not sure about these folks and they really need a closer look:
Naria
Valier
Thinlomien

Good Night.

Valier

03-21-2006, 10:03 PM

Well I'm afraid I looked through the posts and am still unsure. TGWBS does seem a little too helpful and I have felt that Glirdan's behavior in this game has been odd.Naria I think to be just quiet, she did vote later in the day so it helped to get both wolves killed. The one I think we should lynch would probably be Glirdan, but if a double lynch is to be held again I think it should be for The Guy. These two are just hard to "get" . Perhaps the plan of lynching a few males might not be a bad idea, then if that does not succeed try to look a little closer at the females.

I will wait a little longer before I vote, but it would be great to hear more from the "accused"

tar-ancalime

03-21-2006, 10:07 PM

Perhaps the plan of lynching a few males might not be a bad idea, then if that does not succeed try to look a little closer at the females.

Lynching based on sex was only a viable option when we were looking for the Lovers, one of whom was guaranteed to be male. The men were the candidates for the systematic lynching because after the first few days, the village population was starting to skew that way.

The Lovers are dead now, so the sex of the lynch candidates is irrelevant.

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 10:12 PM

I see now how the two satements are not necessarily contradictory. If I get it right then the wolves would ideally have wanted to keep the lovers alive, but when they saw an opportunity to bump their voting record up they would probably have taken it, right?

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 10:15 PM

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 10:23 PM

Some excellent points have been made since I was here last, and I've been convinced about a double lynch today. I'd be in favor of TGWBS and Glirdan, as I find them most suspicious. I'm able to stay around late to make sure the votes work out, if need be.

I believe this is how the vote stands now:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)
Samwise-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
Celuien-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 2, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
LMP-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 3, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 10:30 PM

Caran, it'd be good if someone stayed about to ensure the double lynch takes place- we can't rely on Gurthang every time, and it's now 4.30am here in the UK, so in the interest of my health I should probably grab some Zs!

Caranlondien

03-21-2006, 10:41 PM

Sure, Samwise. Luckily I don't have Linguistics, er, I mean Lumberjacking Class until late tomorrow, so I can stay up late :D

Just thought I'd explain my apparently sudden clarity of thought. I'm by no means certain of either of them (TGWBS and Glirdan) being guilty, but I was leaning towards suspecting them to begin with. Celuien did an excellent analysis of TGWBS.

Hmm. Granted, there’s not way for us to know right now what spawn’s dreams were. But we know that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. TGWBS defends both mildly and, well, ambiguously. Looks very, very suspicious.

I hadn't even noticed this, and it puts TGWBS back up on my list.

SamwiseGamgee

03-21-2006, 10:45 PM

While I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion of Celuien's analysis (can't shake that feeling TGWBS's innocent) I must say her analysis has been excellent today, as has your's Caran. That counts for both of you, as far as I'm concerned.

Formendacil

03-22-2006, 03:35 AM

Okay, I had really wished to have more time to do this, but I've been waiting for the 'Downs to come back for two hours, and I really need to go to bed, so...

++ Naria,

Because she simply seems more guilty than either TGWBS or Glirdan. These two seem completely normal to me. Naria seems normal as well, but not quite as much so...

Did that make sense?

I don't care... I'm going to bed!

Lalaith

03-22-2006, 03:38 AM

Got up this morning at 7am to keep my promise of voting early, and the site was down.
Anyway, back in now, haven't got time to read everything thoroughly, but it looks like I'm in with a chance of voting still...
I'm with the majority for a double lynch, in which case, this seems to be the right thing to do:
++GLIRDAN

Lalaith

03-22-2006, 05:37 AM

A little bit of housekeeping to while away this oddly quiet and uneventful (ie no close-of-vote) morning:

Lynchee candidates (+ who voted)

Tgwbs (3 - Thinlomien, Celuien, lmp)
Glirdan (3 - Samwise, Tar-ancalime, Lalaith)
Naria (2 - TGWBS, Form)

Still to vote:
Cailin
Caranlondien
Valier
Naria
Gurthang
Glirdan

Did not post yesterday (I think!)
Naria, Glirdan

For the record, I hadn't seen Form's vote for Naria when I voted. But I would probably have voted the same way anyway, as the majority consensus seemed to incline to Glirdan being the second lynchee.

SamwiseGamgee

03-22-2006, 05:42 AM

Just a little note guys: in football there's a saying- play the whistle. What do I mean? Basically just keep voting up until Nilp ends day. If he strikes your vote so be it, but I don't think he will. Also for the purposes of vote analysis later it'll be helpful.

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-22-2006, 05:44 AM

As the ship of Arien returned to its Western dock, the village was struck with a dreadful storm. For a few hours, the very existence of Ened-in-Nowhere was frozen. No one was able to do anything, save stand where they are and wonder what was happening. Finally, the malign power holding the village hostage loosed its grasp, and Formendacil and Lalaith rushed in to cast their votes.

And so the village has chosen Glirdan and the guy who be short as their lynchees. tar-ancalime, divining the will of the Mod God, summoned a giant tree-frog. The villagers (save Celuien) took the Nilp fan and stuffed him into its mouth. The frog suffered a horrible death, suffocated by the short hirstute person. Coincidentally, the Nilp impersonator died, too, suffocating in the airless alimentary canal of the amphibian.

After taking daga'y's body out of the tree-frog, they saw him with an exasperated--but contented--smile on his face. He had died as his idol had, an innocent lynched.

The villagers frowned as they turned to Glirdan. They had that one wrong! What about this one? They thought twice whether to kill him or not until in impatience the Mod God sent a fireball that struck the unemployed bum.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-23-2006, 02:27 AM

After the strange blizzard yesterDAY, Celuien, the friendly neighbourhood psychiatrist, was leafing through her books to check whether the weather had any Jungian significance (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=313211&postcount=12), when there came a loud knock on her door.

'We're not opening 'til tomorrow morning! Your neuroses could probably wait until then, couldn't it?'

The knocker may have been deaf, or perhaps persistent, because his knocking didn't stop. Celuien angrily left her seat and stormed off to her door. When she had opened it . . .

~*~

The next DAY, the villagers were surprised to see that the resident shrink hasn't opened shop. Fearing some foul deed, the villager decided to break in. Caranlondien took her chainsaw and sawed through the wooden door. The villagers glanced inside.

They saw a giant lidded metal pot. Lifting the lid, they saw Celuien, deep-fried in olive oil and garnished with Interpretation of Dreams, Totem and Taboo, and The Ego and the Id.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.
Celuien, an Ordinary Villager, was 'Freud' alive on the fifth NIGHT.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 02:38 AM

Oh s**t. I was wrong again. I thought Celuien was a wolf. i was even pretty sure about that thinking about it whole RL yesterday. well, at least I don't have to waste time in analysing her. :rolleyes: Our poor psychiatrist.

The question why was she killed is rather interesting. I don't believe the wolves believed her to be the seer. Rather I think she was killed because she wasn't particularly suspected by anyone.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 02:47 AM

Why, I am baffled.

I was fairly certain Glirdan was a wolf -though I did not know about TGWBS- and for the record, would have supported the now rather depressing double-lynch had I not been struck by that strange paralysis spell.

And Celuien? That does surprise me. She was not one of the people most of us categorised innocent and was clearly suspicious of both lynchees yesterday. Would she not have dreamt of one of them if she were the Seer? Or maybe she was killed for another reason that I fail to grasp... I must look over her posts again, I fear.

I am still inclined to think Naria innocent. Especially since Celuien did defend her yesterDay, if I remember correctly... well, I am not sure - another thing we/I need to look into. I am a little suspicious of Formendacil who voted for Naria, even though her true identity remains unsure. I personally found the evidence against Glirdan (poor man) far more convincing.

I will look over a few things. In the meantime: do we think the Seer should reveal him/herself yet if he/she knows a few innocents by now? Or wait a little while longer?

Cailín

03-23-2006, 02:49 AM

The question why was she killed is rather interesting. I don't believe the wolves believed her to be the seer. Rather I think she was killed because she wasn't particularly suspected by anyone.

But why not then Gurthang or tar-ancalime, who we almost unanimously cleared of guilt? A mystery. I do believe they thought her the Seer. Celuien was one of the people most of us were still 'unsure' about.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 02:54 AM

do we think the Seer should reveal him/herself yet if he/she knows a few innocents by now? Or wait a little while longer

I think that depends entirely what the Seer thinks and what s/he knows already. I also think, bearing this in mind, that it might be a good idea to hold off voting for as long as possible today. It would be awful if the Seer arrived late (let us say s/he happens to be in a later timezone) to find votes already stacked against him/her, and was forced to reveal him/herself.

More later, I need my breakfast....

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 03:21 AM

now rather depressing double-lynch

yes, it was depressing, not just because we lynched two innocents but because of the technical troubles yesterday, the voting tells us so little. Nobody, neither wolves nor innocents, knew when the site would come back or the voting would end, for example, and so many people didn't vote.

Anyway, I think a good look at what Celuien has said is in order.

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 03:26 AM

But why not then Gurthang or tar-ancalime, who we almost unanimously cleared of guilt? A mystery. I do believe they thought her the Seer. Celuien was one of the people most of us were still 'unsure' about. That's what I wonder. This might point to the wolvishness of Gurth or tar-a. I think there wasn't anything seerish in her. Or maybe I'm just blind. But I don't suspect Gurth and tar-a. I'm just confused about this Celuien-issue. This leads to another theory. Maybe she was killed just to cause confusion. at least that's the effect of her death on me. Confusion.

About Glirdy and TGWBS; I suspected both of them slightly, TGWBS more than Glirdy. Though I wasn't sure or even determined about either one. And just for the record: I didn't want a double-lynch though I wasn't heavily against it. I still can't see how the villagers profit from double-lynchings unless the lynch-candidates are both very suspicious. And that's a rare case.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 03:34 AM

I can't see how the wolves would dare let anyone they suspected being a Seer live. If they really had no idea who the Seer was, they would have killed Gurthang, who we nearly all said we trusted, yesterday.
As you say, Lommy, this could point to Gurth being guilty after all, despite all evidence to the contrary. But Celuien as Seer suspect just seems more likely. I'm off to examine her posts.

PS One thing to bear in mind is that as of yesterDay, there are just two wolves but they knew they could trust each other. This was not the case before Lhuna's death.

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 03:59 AM

I skimmed through Celuien's posting. She suspected both Lhuna and Kath. A thing that surely matters. She was one of the first Kath-suspectors. That surely might tell us something.

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 04:35 AM

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 05:22 AM

Thinlómien… Before I continue, I'd like to explain why double-lynching is more beneficial in principle (though admittedly, there is a slight flaw that has to do with the Seer). If we had not lynched Glirdan or TGWBS yesterDay, we would probably have done so toDay as they were the most suspicious characters. This would give the wolves two nightly kills instead of one. If we as villagers can double-lynch, we hold the power. The only downside is that the Seer only has one dream per three people dying. That makes me unsure whether we should double-lynch toDay. Actually, I think not.

Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Cailín
Naria
Valier
Lalaith
Thinlómien
Formendacil
littlemanpoet
Gurthang
SamwiseGamgee

Amidst these people are still two werewolves.

I know I am not one. I am not certain about anyone else. My intuition tells me Caranlondien, tar-ancalime and Gurthang are innocent and I will consider them so for the moment.

Naria was under suspicion yesterDay. TGWBS -known ordinary- voted for her, as well as Formendacil. Celuien analysed her and came up with nothing. The general consensus was suspicious, quiet, cryptic and yet not overly so. I'd love to hear more from her toDay. I remain undecided.

Valier is quiet. Too quiet. I do not suspect her, really, but I need more active participation.

Lalaith is a controversial person. She seems genuine, and yet she is known for her ability to stay under the radar. I will go through her posts again toDay.

Thinlomien… I do still suspect her a little. Skimming through her posts, I see she has brought up quite a lot of theories and disagrees with them immediately afterwards (her legendary indecisiveness I presume), but none of the things she says particularly make sense. Sorry, Lommy, I just don't quite follow your stream of thoughts. Now I don't know whether swaying is Lommy's style or not -having never played with her before- but I'd normally suspect anyone behaving in such a matter. But - the cluelessness that shimmers through her posts leads me to believe she is innocent again. So I guess I am indecisive as well.

Formendacil seems more innocent as the days go by. His vote for Naria yesterDay was rather safe, and yet he expected more people to vote than who eventually did, so he might really have been pushing for a lynch of someone he just thought more likely to be wolfish. He did from the start say he did not consider TGWBS or Glirdan specially wolfish… so he has been consistent and maybe perhaps right in the end. His vote for Kath earlier was very innocent looking, too. If Formendacil is a wolf, he is playing a remarkably cunning game. I know he is smart, but is he that smart? Possibly. I shan't be underestimating him.

Littlemanpoet… recent events make him look less good. He's eager to point them out himself, though. He seems like ever - remarkably self-assured and convinced of his own insight (:p). His persecution of Guy yesterDay was too strong to be wolvish, and yet littlemanwolf(?) has been in a rather safe, unsuspected position thus far, allowing him to be more frank. I must analyse him toDay - yet find him still not overly suspicious.

SamwiseGamgee I just don't get at all. While he does seem innocent, his vote for Lhunardawen was the most suspicious one of the Day. Seeing he was all in agreement with Eomer over the double-lynch thing, I would have thought he'd vote for Kath or Farael at that point. Also, twice in a row SamwiseGamgee's 'buddy' has been eaten by wolves (Eomer is obvious, Celuien and he had some friendly exchanges yesterDay). Anyone volunteer to analyse this banker?

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 05:29 AM

Here goes. This is LONG, but hopefully thorough. Thank goodness Celuien didn’t post that much this game.
First post: in character. Says she thinks the wolves will spot the lovers first, and someone coming out strongly against a villager could be a wolf turning on a traitor. She’ll look out for pairs. Says, in character, that Lommy’s visits are protected by patient confidentiality, and she cannot disclose their content without risking her license. Says she has no “psychic powers, delusions of grandeur or romantic involvements” This comment might have been picked up by wolves as protesting too much?
Second post: more character. Agrees with me about the amount of lunacy in village, points to Anguirel’s delusions. (Again, this might be mistaken as Seerish, she knows Ang’s Seerish claims are delusions?) Valier and Guy are unlikely lovers, lovers are unlikely to hint. Thinks they are both innocent. Is worried about Eomer, but wants to know more about his strategy so won’t vote for him.
Third post: this was her “men only” analysis that I picked up on earlier. Thinks Garin is overly defensive. Then goes through nearly all the other men: Form, Lmp, Glirdan, Farael, Ang, Eonwe, Gurthang, Samwise, and – hmmm… doesn’t find any of them suspicious. This is quite interesting. I actually thought this a rather wolfish post at the time, analysing everyone and not coming to any conclusions. (On the other hand, at this point the Seers could only have dreamt of one person, and the wolves knew this.)
4th: votes for Garin, for his defensiveness and possible backfiring-suicide strategy. Apologises.
Fifth post: nothing important.
Sixth post: says she understood Eomer’s plan. Thinks Ang was mistaken for a Seer by the wolves, also killed because he was smart. Names the following as probable innocents: Guy, LMP, Eomer, spawn, tar-a and Form.
Then says she wants to look more closely at Kath, Farael and Glirdan.
Seventh post: comes back with doubts about Kath’s behaviour but doesn’t know if its enough to vote for her. Was going to look at Glirdan and Farael but is now struck by Eonwe’s odd behaviour.
Eighth post: tabulates vote count. Doesn’t particularly suspect Farael or Glirdan. Doesn’t particularly suspect anyone, doesn’t want to throw away her vote. Will wait to vote to prevent double lynching.
Triple post: Reminds Caranlondien that odd behaviour (this time in the case of Guy) often indicates innocence. Then tells Samwise that the ordo-lover wouldn’t masquerade as seer for fear of wolf-attack. Then wonders if Samwise’s outrage at lmp over the lover question isn’t annoyance at having lover-tactics revealed.
Then after this, comes back and votes for Samwise for his village-polling. Says she may vote for Eonwe tomorrow, and thinks I (Lalaith) bear watching.

Next day. Spawn has been killed by wolves.
Gives three possibilities – that spawn was killed for her correct suspicion of Kath and/or Lhuna, that it was done to even out the male/female ratio, or that Kath and Lhuna were being framed by wolves. Likes double-lynch plan but doesn’t want to do the Guy male-lynching plan. Thinks there is at least one female wolf. Likes lmp’s idea that Farael is just going after his suspect whole-hog (rather than being a lover on the defensive, which was of course the true case).
Comes back, finds Lhuna very suspicious. Notices the “back and forth” between spawn and Lhuna on the first day, thinks that might have triggered a Lhuna dream. But has alternative explanation and so wants to wait ( I assume she was worried that Lhuna might be the other seer. This was something I was worried about too and had already alluded to.)
Then mentions Valier’s “I don’t eat sheep” remark to Guy, but in a neutral way.
Comes back with voting update. Says she will vote for Lhuna unless we are still wanting a double lynch. Then says she’s actually more comfortable about voting for Kath. Also because village needs a Kath vote to co-ordinate double-lynch, and because of not wanting to vote for Lhuna before she’s spoken. Votes for Kath.
YesterDay: praises Eomer. Answers my question about the men-only analysis, says that was just a coincidence. Says she thinks LMP is innocent. Is suspicious of Guy.
Comes back with long breakdown of all Glirdan’s posts.(Post 536, if anyone wants a closer look) Concludes that he is suspicious. Doesn’t think the previous day’s voting tells us much.
Again she protests LMP’s innocence, and also this time Gurthang’s.
Next post, she’s mainly talking to tar-a. Apologises for getting a couple of Glirdan points wrong. Says “support for Caranlondien stands”, don’t quite know what she means by this. Then some discussion about the pros and cons of Guy’s Plan which I don’t really understand. Says she was against the Plan for diverting attention away from the women.
Wonders about Eomer’s suspicion of Glirdan, could he have got three out three right? (We now know the answer is no).
Now thinks Guy is probably innocent..
Next post is a big one, analysing lots of people’s posts. Thinks Guy’s actions the day before were very suspicious. Wonders if Eomer was trying to hide the real Seer. She says in passing that she thinks Naria is innocent. Is puzzled by Guy, thinks he felt guilty the day before and innocent today. (Quite right, I felt the same way) Thinks she will vote for either Guy or Glirdan.
Then moves on to analyse Naria. Repeats that she’s not suspicious.
Then votes for Guy. Apologises. Supports double lynch of Glirdan “if suspicion continues to hold”.
Some joshing with Samwise about double-posting.

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Sorry Cailin, haven't had time to read your most recent post. Will do so now.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 05:40 AM

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Thanks Lalaith - very thorough. :)

However, I disagree with your conclusion. If the wolves thought Celuien the Seer, it would make Samwise (in principle) look less suspicious since Celuien did not pursue her suspicions any further, which she would have done if she had dreamt of Wolf-Samwise. It rather suggests a dream of Samwise and finding him innocent. Though Celuien was not the Seer of course; but it certainly does not make Samwise look more lupine. I hope that made sense.

I agree with the rest of your conclusion, but we cannot trust Celuien's words blindly.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 05:50 AM

No, of course Celuien knew no more than any other innocent ord. But we have to presume that if the wolves thought she was the Seer, she must have got something right.
I think that what she got "right" was more likely to be someone's innocence than someone's guilt.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 06:55 AM

Well, I've gotten up early to post an analysis I typed up yesterday; I'll put it up shortly, after I remove Celuien's name. I am also puzzled by the wolves choice, which, among other reasons, may have been why they chose her: to confuse us. Only time will tell.

I would also like to apologize for not voting yesterday. For what it's worth, I was highly suspicious about Glirdan and probably would have voted for him; I don't know if I would have supported a double or not. Turns out I would have been wrong either way.

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

I agree with this entirely, and one part of my analysis (my next post) is based on this.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 07:01 AM

Okay, bear with me on this, because this is going to be long. Seeing as most of our suspects (all five of them) have been killed in the last two days, I've decided to do my own analysis of everyone by using... unconventional methods. Well, maybe not so much unconventional as not often used. After each part, I'll list who I find innocent and who I find suspicious from each part. If I'm undecided on any person, then they won't be in either list. Anyway, I hope I can make sense of it when I'm done. (Oh, and keep in mind that I typed most of this up during the Night.)

Part 1: Gut Instinct

Laugh all you want, but I've found that my gut can sometimes be more trustworthy than my brain. So, I thought I'd give my gut some say and here's what it says:

Feels innocent:
Cailín
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Feels suspicious:
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier
LMP

Part 2: Day 3 Voting

Here's the facts(courtesy of TGWBS's post):
Known innocents in italics; known enemies in bold.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Cailín --> No one (Lhuna 7 - Farael 1 - Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Okay, to me, it would seem logical that the wolves, being the (presumably) intelligent evil beings that they are, would see that there was a lot of suspicion for Lhuna going into the Day. Knowing this, and maybe even thinking she was the female lover, they would probably turn on her. Meaning that the other wolves probably voted for Lhuna. On the other hand, I sincerely doubt that they would put Kath on the platform. It would be to easy for the wolves to just bandwagon onto Lhuna, rather than make the unnecessary sacrifice of voting for another wolf. This also makes LMP's vote look questionable, because, if we wanted to double lynch, then we would need to keep the votes close, and he tried to make the gap wider when we really needed some votes for Kath.

So, from the voting on Day 3:

Looks innocent:
Formendacil
tar-ancalime
Valier
Naria
Cailín

Looks suspicious:
LMP
Thin
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee
Caranlondien
Gurthang
(I know I'm innocent, but you guys don't, so my name will stay.)

Part 3: First Day Mentionings

I would think that, especially on the first Day, that wolves would avoid either accusing or defending each other directly. I just think they'd avoid mentioning each other at all. So, here are what we know about who named who on the first day. (I will list only those who are still alive.)

Mentioned Lhuna or Kath
Cailín
LMP
Gurthang
Formendacil
Thin (Only to state crossposting)

Mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Lalaith
Naria

Did not mention or was not mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

I believe that's right. I scanned through the first day thrice. Lhuna and Kath only had about 7 posts total between them, so there wasn't much there. I don't think I missed anyone talking about them, though. I also won't put someone in the 'looks innocent' category simply for having the word Lhuna or Kath in their post; it needs to be a decent mention. So, assuming my research to be correct:

Looks innocent:
Lalaith
Naria
Formendacil
LMP

Looks suspicious:
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 07:05 AM

I'll be back on later toDay to post Part 4: Individual Voting and to post a summary of who I think this information implicates. I don't know that my decision will be based wholly on these Parts, but I don't know that I have a lot else to go off of.

I'm almost thinking of doing a Part 5: Votes Received, but I don't know that that would tell us anything. I'll just have to see when I have time.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 07:25 AM

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 08:06 AM

Interesting Gurthang...

Especially since Caranlondien pops up on your suspicion lists so often, while I -primarily based on instincts or because I was impressed with her contributions as a newbie to the game- have never considered her as wolfish before. Maybe I should review that feeling.

I am very much inclined to trust you, Gurthang, so I value your thoughts. Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

tar-ancalime

03-23-2006, 08:07 AM

Interesting, Gurthang. It's funny how Day 1 always seems to grow in importance, the longer the game goes on.

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 08:11 AM

don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves

Not everyone, at all.
My entire analysis of Celuien's posts was based on the wolves thinking she was a Seer. Cailin at least appeared to concur with this thesis.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 08:17 AM

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

Quite the contrary, tar, I am convinced the wolves thought Celuien to be a Seer. Otherwise they would have murdered a more generally trusted villager. Such as yourself, Gurthang or Littlemanpoet (perhaps even me) - people who have been contributing regularly and have never been seriously under suspicion yet. We cannot all be wolves.

I just fail to see why they believed her to be the second Seer... perhaps they are getting desperate indeed. Which would be good news.

tar-ancalime

03-23-2006, 08:18 AM

Sorry, Lalaith. By "everyone" I guess I meant...um...Thinlomien.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Cailin, to whom I also apologize.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 08:46 AM

Quick answers, I have to leave soon.

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

Oops. I'll edit that.

Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

It's possible, but I would doubt it. I think that we wouldn't have looked twice if they had voted for Lhuna, simply saying they didn't like the double lynch. It would have been very easy for them to do that and stay out of trouble. So, yes they could still be wolves, but from that part of the analysis, they look innocent. I guess that's key, I used the words 'look' and 'feel' rather than just saying 'definitely are', since none of this is ever for certain. Still, I think that coming up with enough places where someone is looking guilty can lead to a wolf.

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know. The only trouble is there's no way to cross-reference with anything, since none of the wolves would have known he was a lover either, they would not have avoided talking about him. Still, you can never tell, so if you want to, then go ahead. I don't see how it could hurt.

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 09:02 AM

Sorry, Lalaith. By "everyone" I guess I meant...um...Thinlomien. Oh, I'm a majority by myself. :p I didn't say the wolves wouldn't have thought Celuien the seer (I just doubted it slightly), I said I didn't find her seer-looking. Maybe I should take the attitude that the wolves are probably more clever than me. Not an idea that cheers me up. (Though, it's not very difficult to be cleverer than me... :D)

Thinlómien… Before I continue, I'd like to explain why double-lynching is more beneficial in principle (though admittedly, there is a slight flaw that has to do with the Seer). If we had not lynched Glirdan or TGWBS yesterDay, we would probably have done so toDay as they were the most suspicious characters. This would give the wolves two nightly kills instead of one. If we as villagers can double-lynch, we hold the power. The only downside is that the Seer only has one dream per three people dying. That makes me unsure whether we should double-lynch toDay. Actually, I think not. The first time I understood this. :rolleyes: I don't know if you explained it better than the few persons who have already explained it, or if I'm more awake today. Thanks, Cailín.

Gurth, I liked your analysis. Someone noticed that Cara pops up in the "looks bad" quite often, I'd say the same about Samwise.

I think I have a big problem. I've no idea who might be a wolf. At the moment, I have no real suspects and I'm ready to trust nearly anyone. And that's bad. If I had to guess who the remaining wolves were, I'd say Samwise and Naria, but that's just an unreasoned guess.

I'm going to analyse Samwise now. He disturbs me.

Valier

03-23-2006, 09:49 AM

Wow the wolves kill really surprised me! I was sure they would have killed Gurthang or another seeming innocent. I do think they probably thought Celuien to be the seer. Well I actually was suspisious of her and probably would have been voting for her in the next couple of days. I am now back to square one with my suspects. hhhmmmm Caran's name does come up alot in Gurthangs post/analysis which is weird. I also think Samwise and perhaps Form need some looking into today. They have not been under fire yet and it may help us to look at their posts. I think the seer should only come out if they have dreamed of a wolf or if they are going to be lynched. I believe I have an idea who is the seer, but I will keep that to myself, incase I am wrong. I will read through the posts now, but I may not have time for analysis till I get home(I'm at school now).:)

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 10:00 AM

A few questions and answers to help us:

1. Who has voted for Kath & Farael, and not Lhuna?

tar-ancalime - 2x (Farael once, kath once)
Valier - 1x (& late, helping secure the tie)
Naria - 1x (& late, helping secure the tie)
Formendacil 2x (both times Kath)

2. Who has voted for Lhuna instead of Kath or innocents?

Caranlondien - 2x
Samwise - 2x
LMP -2x
Thinlomien - 1x
Lalatih - 1x
Gurthang - 1x

3. Who have the killed innocents suspected & voted for?

Celuien suspected & voted for Samwise. - Day 2

Eomer voted for LMP based on a random selection. - Day 1

Glirdan voted for Naria - Day 2

Guy voted for Naria - Day 4

4. Who has contributed the least to the discussions?

In order (rough estimate) of least help:

Naria
Valier
Formendacil
Samwise

***************

Question #4's answers are offset by the answers to questions #1-3.

The upshot of this little investigation is that:

a. Formendacil, Naria, and Valier are not our most likely choices for the werewolves.

b. Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP should be considered to be the most suspicious.

c. Of the three listed in point (b), I know that I trust myself most, obviously. The other two need a thorough investigation.

One thing of note is Samwise's outburst regarding the Lovers information. How do we interpret that?

Caranlondien has exhibited the intellectual acuity that I've seen in tar-ancalime and Spawn. In other words, I think you ladies are smarter than I am. I admit it. :rolleyes: Therefore, I'll put nothing past Caranlondien.

Samwise I can see playing this cunning a game with Caran's help. I'd say he's about as smart as I am (which ain't stupid). :p

I think there's a weakness, if not a flaw, in Guy's double lynch logic, which is this: each Day we double lynch 2 innocents, the more likely a werewolf win becomes. Pretty obvious, but I still think it needs to be said. I'm not sure we can afford to be wrong yet another Day.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 10:12 AM

Wow, my first game and already I'm potentially "cunning" :D

All I can say is, I'm not a wolf, but I understand if I have to be lynched in order to prove that. Thus I'll spend toDay doing analysis, which will hopefully help if/when I'm dead later on.

I see someone's already working on Samwise, whom I'm starting to suspect a bit more. I think I'll do my own analysis of him in a bit, but I'll start with someone else, since we already have one analysis on the way. Working from LMP's own list... LMP, then.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 10:35 AM

Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves!

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 10:50 AM

Day 1
#22 Usual day 1 nonsense (mourning and greeting etc.), claims to have suspects and says will tell them later (after lunch)
#25 Suspects Cailín for her early vote. Points out that she makes a lot of accusations, but doubts that a wolf'd be so stupid. Asks for other people's opinions on the matter.
#48 Answers to spawn's accusations (she had said his accusations on Cailín seemed a bit baseless) by saying that in her posts on Day 1 she had randomly accused one third of the village. Says she belongs to her "ooh, that's odd"-list rather than "horrible wolves"-list. Agrees with Gurth that TGWBS and his self-vote are odd and says we should be careful about TGWBS. Advises villagers to be careful and think about their votes, since there's more than any other day a danger of lynching two innocent people by tomfoolery.
#71 Chats with Eomer. Says that his thoughts concerning Cailín were mere suspicions, not accusations. Says he thinks Ang thinks the greater good of the village.
#74 Agrees with Farael about Ang playing a strange game and hinting things. Jokes about his hair growth.
#76 Says he will go away.
#122 Makes a voting list, clears his statement about Garin (Garin is being Garin). Says he'd like to vote Glirdy (unreasoned, bandwagony vote), but may not do so because it would take the village to a double lynch.
#125 Votes Garin, because he doesn't want a double lynch and says Garin should die rather than TGWBS.
Conclusion: He's a bit flip-floppy, but not remarkably. He doesn't really raise points in discussions. Not particularly suspicious of him based on this, could be wolf, could be innocent. I don't get his point in #48. Maybe you'd like to explain, Samwise?

Day 2
#145 Is interested in what went between Eomer and LMP on Day 1. Agrees with tar-a that Ang made some curious points about him (he had something serious to say about Samwise, tar-a said). Says we shouldn't look at those who Ang accused directly. Believes me (Thinlómien) and Kath innocent, but gives no reasons why.
#146 Says that pairish action should be only monitored, so that longer observation time will give less hasty accusations and it will prevent layers of falsehood from forming.
#149 Accuses Lhuna because of her not breaking the tie though she said she wouldn't like to have a double lynch. (This is the first time Lhuna not breaking the tie is mentioned.)
#227 Still suspects Lhuna. Agrees that the wolves are probably after the seers. Is angry with LMP about mentioning the wolf-lover might tell his/her lover the names of the wolves (says LMP gave advise to the lovers). Says Eonwe's vote was crazy. Says Eomer is probably innocent and a clevr guy, who he will maybe never be able to trust.
#231 Agrees with LMP that the lovers probably had thought about the ordolover knowing the wolves. Asks TGWBS to explain his vote and says that voting without reasons makes the game easier for the wolves.
#233 Says that an ordolover knowing all the wolves could pose as a seer.
#239 Corrects Glirdy.
#240 Defends himself for correcting Glirdy though no one had accused him.
#242 Reminds that Night will start earlier than usual.
#255 Votes Lhuna. (See reasons above.)
Conclusions: Raising up the Lhuna-issue and sticking to it speaks strongly for his innocense. It doesn't point to his wolvishness unless he wanted to be cleared from all suspicions at this phase if Lhuna died later (not probable in my opinion) or if the wolves had decided to sacrifice Lhuna. He's a bit flighty; he defends himself though no one accuses him. That's a bit wolvish, but overall his day 2 behaviour is one of an innocent's.

Day 3
#323 Says spawn's seership is a surprise to him, but believes it was so for the wolves also. Agrees with tar-a that she was killed probably to balance the sexes. Says he's not ready to support TGWBS's plan yet. Doesn't suspect Kath and continues suspecting Lhuna.
#325 Agrees in principle with Lalaith that no one should be voted before she/he has had a chance to defend him/herself.
#328 Doesn't understand Cailín (she said 1/3 was guilty then - later that was proved wrong). Says Kath and Lhuna might be innocent after all.
#331 Says we should double-lynch Kath and Lhuna.
#391 Says he'll probably vote Lhuna unless she comes and exonerates herself or someone else becomes more suspicious.
#397 Jokes with Eomer.
#400 Aswers to Farael about spawn dreaming of Lhuna. Says Lhuna is suspicious because spawn was a seer. Expresses his frustration about bickering.
#403 Votes Lhuna and makes a voting record.
#409 Urges to make a double lynch.
Conclusion: This made me really think that the wolves wanted to sacrifice Lhuna. Though Samwise's eagerness to have a double lynch speaks for his innocence again. But, the interesting thing is that though he says he supports the double-lynch he votes for Lhuna (fouth vote for her) though Kath has only one vote. A masquerading wolf might be doing so. Samwise, I'd like you to explain that.

Day 4
#539 Mourns Eomer. Suspects Glirdan and says we should have a double lynch (but not lynch TGWBS, suggests Naria instead because she's stalking).
#545 Supports double-lynchings. Says he trusts TGWBS because Eomer trusted him. Votes Glirdan.
#547 Admits he hasn't real reasons to support TGWBS.
#548 Jokes with Celuien.
#554 Says the wolves would probably ideally want to keep the lovers alive, but might turn against them.
#555 Asks Valier to clear her point and says he's not suspecting her though.
#557 Says it's good if Cara stays around to ensure the double-lynch.
#563 Asks people to keep on voting.
Conclusions: He is avid to explain his votes and defend himself (a bit too flighty I think). Why did he for example mention he doesn't suspect Valier when he only asked her to clear a point. Jumpy guy, he is. (I admit I'm not the best person to complain about flip-floppiness, so I'll skip that part.)

Day 5
Nothing so far.

Final conclusions: He's still on my suspect list . I might even vote him if I don't find a better case.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 10:50 AM

Hello, villagers. Well, you can forget favourable interest rates next time you come to me for a loan! :D Oh, and nobody should join in that joke, because it seems that if you have a laugh with me you end up DEAD! :rolleyes:

So, I'm having a lot of suspicion pointed my way and to be honest I think that's fair enough. I've gone this far without a close examination and I'm perfectly comfortable with getting one, because I'm innocent and have confidence that the truth will out. Well, a reasonable amount of confidence.

I really can't see Why the wolves got rid of Celuien last night other than they suspected her as seer. It just makes no sense at the moment for the wolves to be leaving a seer alive. There is, of course, value in going back over what she said, but there's not a huge amount to find, I feel.

Some general points for our consideration: there are only four of us guys left and now a female goes. Do we read into that. Also, we can now pretty safely say that Glirdan was framed yesterday, right? So maybe we need to consider the possibility that the most obvious choice for a wolf today could in fact be innocent.

On double lynchings: they ARE in our interest as villagers. Cailin has said so, Eomer and TGWBS (two known innocents) have said so, and as our royal musician said, I'm somewhat suspicious of anyone who doesn't support them. It was my understanding that when we committed to a double lynch on day two we were committing to a course of action to ruthlessly weed out the werewolves. Now that I find people backing out I grow somewhat uncomfortable.

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 10:54 AM

Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves! You're starting random suspicions again, are you? :D

Nice to see you around Samwise since I'm having a few questions for you. See my analysis on you.

Naria

03-23-2006, 10:59 AM

Hi everyone! First off, allow me to apologize for my absence from last Day. I don't blame the ones that have suspicion growing against me. I would too, if I were in their shoes. I know that it is of no use to keep someone around that does nothing to help the village in their quest to find the wolves.

For what it is worth--I said that I didn't know who to vote for(Lhuna or Kath) because they were both very suspicious to me. As I stated, Lhuna wasn't being Lhuna, normally she is informative and helpful and this time she wasn't. I thought Kath to be a wolf because, yes she isn't overly chatty, but a) she was contributing more than 'normal' and b) her one post(can't remember which one) on the day of her death came across and sounded like something I did when I was a wolf. Very apprehensive and safe in her posting. I can't really explain it any better than that, those were just my feelings about the two of them.

I voted for Kath in the end because of a) solidifying a tie and b) because I was duped into thinking that Farael was the Seer and I really thought he was.

Cailin, care to explain? :)
Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 11:07 AM

In response to Lommy: I don't get what you don't get about #48. If you clarify I'll gladly clarify.

As for the Lhuna issue. :rolleyes: I don't know what to say. I was pretty suspicious of her on day one after I urged us not to double lynch on the first day and then she refused to break the tie. That would've probably slid, though, had she not turned up on day two and started saying how concerning she found the near double lynch. My thinking was: 'if you found it so concerning why didn't you break it. That's what I, an innocent, did, so why didn't you?' I voiced my concern and received support for it, and on my original suspicions voted for her. When Spawn was killed and was revealled to be the seer I thought that her support of my Lhuna suspicions was perhaps fortuitous (sp?) and so ran with it. When I voted Lhuna on day three it did put her well in front, but I just didn't think it made sense for me, original doubter of Lhuna, to suddenly swap to Kath. I thought that'd be somewhat flip-floppish...which is ironic. So that's why I voted Lhuna. Now I agree that the wolves were probably willing to sacrifice one of their number, that's true, but would a fellow wolf really raise the original suspicion of one of their foul kin? And after I'd voted Lhuna on day three I realised it put her well in front and posted to urge others to vote Kath. I have acted only as I saw fit and only ever with this village's best interests at heart. If you choose to kill me there's not much I can really do, but please trust me when I say you're making a grave error.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 11:08 AM

I really can't see Why the wolves got rid of Celuien last night other than they suspected her as seer. It just makes no sense at the moment for the wolves to be leaving a seer alive. There is, of course, value in going back over what she said, but there's not a huge amount to find, I feel.

I disagree. I think Celuien MUST have said something to get her killed as the Seer and I think the more people who go over her posts the better. I did this morning and came up with a couple of pointers, if anyone else feels like giving an alternative analysis or comments, that would be helpful.
Another thing. KathWolf made a post analysing spawn. I can't remember - have we checked that post for omissions or dodgy emphasis? That could tell us something...

Cailín

03-23-2006, 11:09 AM

Hello, villagers. Well, you can forget favourable interest rates next time you come to me for a loan! Oh, and nobody should join in that joke, because it seems that if you have a laugh with me you end up DEAD!

:D I'll take that risk.

It was my understanding that when we committed to a double lynch on day two we were committing to a course of action to ruthlessly weed out the werewolves. Now that I find people backing out I grow somewhat uncomfortable.

In a larger village, certainly it was in our best interest... and though I am hesitant to bring this up again: we still have a Seer. With double-lynchings each day, his or her dreams will become less effective. It will get easier, fast, for the wolves to find him or her and there's even a possibility s/he will be up for lynching. With the terrific job this Seer is doing, we should be equally careful.

Now I agree that the wolves were probably willing to sacrifice one of their number, that's true, but would a fellow wolf really raise the original suspicion of one of their foul kin?

In the Lover's scenario... yes, in principle, they could.

Nice analysis, Thinlómien, though it does not really sway me either way... And Naria, my random accusation was just a joke based on Caranlondien's current reputation level.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 11:16 AM

In the Lover's scenario... yes, in principle, they could. (Cailin)

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:18 AM

DAY ONE

Post #18
Asks that Louds talk as much as usual and Quiets post at the very least once per day.
Responds to Lhuna, who requested that we not spread our votes too thin, by asking how thin is too thin?
Responds to Eomer, who had said something about not lynching Lhuna, by asking if he has a reason not to.

#52
Says, "The werewolves are understandably being very cautious today."
Says that Gurthang (who had suggested TGWBS and Valier were the Lovers) is being over-eager, but that is nothing out of the ordinary.
Points out that Valier accused "the unemployed" rather randomly (but we were all being random that day, so I don't think it's so strange).
Takes note of Samwise's accusation of Cailin, based on her early and random vote for Lalaith. Says this isn't much evidence against Cailin.
Says that Lhuna's suggestion that we not spread the votes too thin is "not as helpful as it seems".
Brings up Eomer's (brief) defense of Lhuna.
Lists those who have given substantive posts already:
Lalaith #4
Spawn #7, 17, 30
Cailin #9
Celuien #12
Kath #16
Samwise #48
Caran #49
Eonwe #50
Ang #51
But, we know there was at least one wolf in there.

Post #67
Responds to Anguirel, who had written:
Ah. LMP, my axe had forgotten about you...

I'm tempted to accuse you at once, but auld lang syne works better as a last minute swing than as the foundation for a denunciation.

Still, stone-cutter, I'm not a-liking your arbitrating tone of voice. ..

Replies with in-character jest. Of course, Anguirel was killed by the werewolves the first night; I can't remember if anyone brought this up in Days past, but this might also have pointed back to LMP. I'm more inclined to attribute it to his accusation against Kath, though.

Post #68
Responds to Eomer's plan, which involved voting for LMP. Says "If you feel you must. 'Twould be a shame if it backfired..."

Post #87
Lists the vote tally so far, and says he is disconcerted that more votes have not already been cast.

Post #91
Suggests that perhaps the werewolves are waiting to vote later. Says the werewolves are hiding well. Votes for Eomer, saying that
Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.

DAY TWO

Post #206
Defends vote for Eomer based on Eomer's defense of Lhuna and his cryptic vote, which LMP argued could be interpreted in various ways.
His defense of his vote is rather long, but not really suspicious-looking, as he was asked for a defense. He points some suspicion towards Lhuna, saying possibly she and Eomer are the Lovers.

Post #219
Points out that the Ordo-Lover probably knows the identities of the wolves.

Post #221
Responds to Caranlondien's statement that "LMP is looking suspicious[/B] for what I called his "attack" on Lhuna and Eomer. He points out that he was asked for an explanation of his vote (which I hadn't noticed). Once again, nothing really suspicious.
Says that Eomer, Spawn, and tar-ancalime are above his suspicion for the day, due to they have been concise, well-reasoned, and suspecting the same people he suspects. 2/3 of those people are now known innocents.

Post #224
Quotes The Mod God's rules concerning the Lovers to show that the wolf can, indeed, tell the ordo-lover who the wolves are.

Post #228
Responds to Samwise's displeasure at his thought about the Lovers.

Post #270
Raises point:

One of the best werewolf strategies is to say as much that is true as you can, so that the few lies you must tell slip by. However, some basically honest people can't help themselves, and when they play werewolf, they confess more than they mean to.
Points this out about Lhuna. Also points out that Lalaith has been "polling the village."
Brings up Cailin's suggestion that we lynch another guy. Honestly, I had forgotten that [B]Cailin[B] brought up this plan before TGWBS even did. She was more subtle about it, so there wasn't as strong a reaction. LMP, howev er, asks:
But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?
Says Lhuna, Cailin, and Lalaith seem to be looking out for each other. Says he may vote for one of them, or for Eonwe or Samwise.

Post #272
Says he's more suspicious of Lhuna and less suspicious of Eonwe.

Post #273
Strongly accuses Lhuna.

Post #274
Seems sure of Lhuna's guilt, and votes for her.

Post #277
Says with five voters to go, all hope is not yet lost for toDay. (Hopes we will lynch Lhuna).

DAY THREE

Post #316
Criticizes Farael's argument as a "trumped up story" (Which we later found to be true). Scolds the villagers for voting based on what annoys us.

Post #317
Thinks Farael might be "a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love." (Implying Lhuna to be the wolf in the relationship...)
Suggests we double-lynch Lhuna and Farael.

Post #320
Says TGWBS's plan (actually just a formalization of Cailin's plan) has flaws.

Post #416
Asks "What did the dead innocent get right?" Looks at both lynched innocents and those killed by werewolves.

EDIT: Forgot to label it as "LMP" :rolleyes:

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:20 AM

Sorry, I have to go and I can't finish right now. I'll be back soon!

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 11:23 AM

In response to Lommy: I don't get what you don't get about #48. If you clarify I'll gladly clarify. I don't understand why there is a bigger chance to kill two innocents in Day 1 than in any other Day.

I read your post, but it didn't affect my opinions in any way, neither positive nor negative.

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second? That's exactly the point. You weren't the first one to suggest it, though you said you'll support it and urged other people to support it and then voted against it. Doesn't exonerate you.

Cailín

03-23-2006, 11:29 AM

I have been going over Caranlondien's post and can find little substantive against her except for the mere facts, voting records...

Nothing truly incriminating, though.

There is someone out here who is a remarkably skilled liar. And I don't like it.

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

Clearly, they would. Otherwise they'd look suspicious. This is no formal accusation, Samwise, merely pointing out that by now I'd expect anything from the wolves.

Caran, I see you correctly brought up my original plan for lynching males so as to identify the Lovers. However, at that time I was still a little... caught up in my own setting for this game. As you probably know, I more or less invented the Lovers as they were played here and was planning on modding a game involving them myself. I already figured out for myself I'd use two male wolves and two female wolves... and somehow in my mind this developed into the assumption that all Lover-games would necessarily need two male and two female wolves. Completely silly of course, but I hope that explains my switching positions here just a little. :o

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 11:29 AM

Post #317
Thinks Farael might be "a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love." (Implying Lhuna to be the wolf in the relationship...)
Suggests we double-lynch Lhuna and Farael. That's really interesting... how did he guess? This - I think - might point to his wolvishness, though the matter is not as simple as it seems...

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:33 AM

Another cancelled Lumberjack Class... :D

Back to work on my LMP analysis.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 11:39 AM

Response to Lommy #604: it wasn't a mathematically backed-up theory, it was simply based on the assumption that day one votes tend to be somewhat random and not necessarily based on good reasoning, so day one is the least wise day to double lynch. I guess I'm paying the price now for not being precise enough back then.

I agree with Cailin that we have a very talented liar in our midst and I think we must all be very careful.

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 11:44 AM

Response to Lommy #604: it wasn't a mathematically backed-up theory, it was simply based on the assumption that day one votes tend to be somewhat random and not necessarily based on good reasoning, so day one is the least wise day to double lynch. I guess I'm paying the price now for not being precise enough back then. Now I got your point. I agree you should express yourself more clearly, Mr Cash.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 11:52 AM

I' about to go out for the next six hours or so. Please don't view my absence as suspicious. I will be back with analysis and theories aplenty!

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 11:59 AM

I' about to go out for the next six hours or so. Please don't view my absence as suspicious. I will be back with analysis and theories aplenty!
Ok, but I don't promise not to vote you during your absence!

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 12:28 PM

People in order of suspiciousness:

Suspicious ones:
Samwise Gamgee - see my analysis.
Lalaith - constantly suspected but tends to slip under the radar. I have a bad gut-feeling about her.
littlemanpoet - he knows things and has a suspicious voting record
Naria - scarily silent, doesn't contribute much when he posts
Formendacil - a clever wolf

Almost neutral ones:
Valier - she is suspicious - but after all that's her playing style.
Cailín - usually very reasonable but sometimes her behaviour makes me uneasy (fg. random accusations).
Caralondien - clever but has a suspicious voting record.

Innocents?:
Gurthang - reliable, see the double-lynch of Lhuna and Kath.
tar-ancalime - reasonable and has an unwolvish air.

Innocents for sure:
Thinlómien - unless Nilp lied to me about my role.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 12:31 PM

Okay, I was on Day Three, post #416...

Post #416, continued
Says perhaps werewolves took advantage of Eonwe's situation on Day Two (he had trouble getting to a computer), and took advantage of that to lynch him.
Summarizes what the dead innocent said that we still aren't sure of:
Garin thinks Cailín is innocent
Anguirel defends Cailín against Samwise; LMP points suspicion to Glirdan, since Anguirel voted for him.
Makes another list, which you can go back and read if you want; It's too much to try to summarize his summaries!

DAY FOUR

Post #417
Analyzes Spawn's posts for clues.

Post #418
Says Eomer, TGWBS, and Farael have all sown confusion. We now know that none of these people were wolves, although Farael was a Lover.
Says that Kath is worthy of "having an eye kept on her", but right now all the noise about her is a distraction from the more obvious candidate, Lhuna. Says TGBWS's suggestion that Spawn did NOT dream of Lhuna is "garbage".

Post #419
Rejects TGWBS's plan.

Post #423
Corrects himself about Lhuna's Day One vote.

Post #424
Says perhaps Lhuna's response to TGWBS's plan ("it makes me think you are the sole male wolf") is close to the truth - perhaps there are 3 females and 1 male wolf. Suggests we double-lynch TGWBS with Lhuna instead of Kath. Trying to shift suspicion away from Kath? Possibly...

Post #426
Responds to me saying I would support a TGWBS lynching.

Post #429
Realizes he can't rely on Lhuna to help lynch TGWBS, and so votes for Lhuna.
Explains his suspicions of Eomer and TGWBS. Mild accusation against Formendacil for defending Lhuna and accusing Kath. Continues to think all the talk of Kath is a distraction.
I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt

DAY FOUR

Post #479
Agrees with Lalaith's suspicions of TGWBS. Calls Cailin "one of the more suspicious based on voting records." Responds to Lalaith (who said she was most suspicious of Formendacil, TGWBS, and LMP) by saying that a healthy analysis of all three should point her in the right direction.

Post #481
Agrees with Cailin that we shouldn't put any stock in what Lhuna said at the end of Day Three. Says he is suspicious of TGWBS. Asks Lalaith to post more to allay suspicions of her.

Post #482
Agrees with tar-a that we should look at Glirdan.

Post #485
Thinks Farael may have let something slip in his desperation.

Post #522
Posts chart of votes. Concludes TGWBS is a werewolf, and makes conjectures about others' innocence based on TGWBS's assumed guilt.

Post #532
Responds to a point raised in my analysis of Farael, and says maybe TGWBS isn't a wolf. Thinks more, then says maybe he is a wolf.

Post #533
Agrees with TGWBS that double-lynches favor the innocents.

Post #534
Correction / joke

Post #550
Defends tar-a's post as not seeming contradictory to him. Agrees that Lhuna voters are not automatically innocent.

Post #551
Continues to think TGWBS is guilty, and votes for him. Makes a "just for the record" post of who he thinks is guilty / not guilty.

DAY FIVE

Post #574
Now thinks Lhuna voters are more likely to be guilty.

Post #591
Analyzes everyone based on several factors; conclude Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP look the most suspicious (but exempts himself since he "knows he's innocent").
Points out that perhaps double lynches should not continue, since we no longer have a large number-advantage.

Conclusion:
I keep asking myself why LMP is still alive. A lot of us have been inclined to trust him. This is bordering on dangerous territory, but he is definitely clever enough to fool us all through an implied masquerade. I'm just not sure about him, and I have to think.

I'll be back in a bit

Formendacil

03-23-2006, 01:07 PM

Good Morning, good village...

It's nice to wake up and find oneself still alive! :p

Okay, reading over the Day's discussion, it seems that we have two main topics on our minds. The first, of course, is Why Did the Wolves Kill Celuien? The second is, Is SamwiseGamgee Guilty?

To address the first: I have no idea.

Thinking on the issue, I am in agreement with those who think that Celuien must have exhibited some Seer-ish qualities. At this point in the game, I don't think the Wolves can afford to leave the Seer alive.

That said, however, I'm a hedgehog if I can see anything in Celuien that looked Seerish. Now, I obviously can't see it as the Werewolves do, but from where I'm sitting, nothing about her looks particularly suspicious. Most of Celuien's suspicions weren't expressed strongly, and they tended to wander a little, I thought.

But what reason does that leave for the Werewolves to go after Celuien? You'd think, that if they couldn't get the Seer, they'd take down one of the more prominent- more dangerous- villagers. LMP definitely comes to mind.

So, the question for me is: did the Werewolves, having no idea who the Seer was, opt to throw the village into mass confusion by killing someone who was otherwise pointless to kill?

I am left rather confused by this whole matter, and shall set it aside then, and move on to SamwiseGamgee, the second matter.

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere. He's been on my "seems innocent" list since Day 1, and on a lot of other people's lists as well. And, looking back, I can't really say that he looks particularly guilty. He was, as much-noted, a member of the anti-Lhuna campaign that saw Lhuna lynched. Now this, in and of itself, does not strike me as particularly guilty- several people voted Lhuna. On the other hand, it is a strike against him.

On the theory that Lhuna's Lover-ness was NOT deduced by the Werewolves until the course of that day, is it possible that Samwise was setting himself up the day before (when he also came out against Lhuna) to look good if Lhuna got lynched?

I'm still unsure as to where to place Samwise in my mind: Guilty or Not? The trust of the village in him over the last few days is a hard habit to break. I mean, it's one thing for me to think him relatively innocent- most of the village has been in agreement.

On the other hand, the evidence does seem to be pointing in his general direction, and from what little I know of him from elsewhere (such as the Warg Society), he definitely comes across as intelligent enough to pull the wool over the village eyes.

Still not sure... but I'll be back later...

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 01:35 PM

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere. That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.

I know my suspicions of Samwise come mainly from the things I found in my analysis. A strange idea came to my mind. If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise? For wolvishness can be seen in anything, if it's looked for. Anyway, he remains at the top of my suspicions' list.

I would like to add that I don't suspect him - or anyone else - strongly. The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I agree the person who said we're having a few good liars in the village. Or if not liars, then good hiders(sp?).

Thinlómien

03-23-2006, 01:51 PM

Hmph, I have to go and I won't be able to get back.

++SamwiseGamgee

I hope I'm not mistaken.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 02:06 PM

Caran, I see you correctly brought up my original plan for lynching males so as to identify the Lovers. However, at that time I was still a little... caught up in my own setting for this game. As you probably know, I more or less invented the Lovers as they were played here and was planning on modding a game involving them myself. I already figured out for myself I'd use two male wolves and two female wolves... and somehow in my mind this developed into the assumption that all Lover-games would necessarily need two male and two female wolves. Completely silly of course, but I hope that explains my switching positions here just a little. :o

Yes, this does explain it.

In any case, I'm not really that suspicious of Cailín right now. There certainly isn't anyone I've entirely ruled out as a possible werewolf, but, she and Valier are both on my Least-Suspected list, the latter because she really seems sincere.

Formendacil said that all this suspicion of Samwise seemed to come out of nowhere; However, I agree with Thinlómien:
That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.
I don't think that our overlooking someone for the first few Days means we should feel obligated to continue to overlook them.

Formendacil

03-23-2006, 03:18 PM

Formendacil said that all this suspicion of Samwise seemed to come out of nowhere; However, I agree with Thinlómien:

I don't think that our overlooking someone for the first few Days means we should feel obligated to continue to overlook them.

Oh, I agree...

I'm merely pointing out the fact that he HAS been overlooked- and either the fact that he was overlooked or the fact that he is now being looked at probably points to a Werewolvish influence.

If the first fact, the one that was being overlooked to begin with, is the Wolvish fact, then we know clearly where to lay the blame- at the feet of SamwiseGamgee.

If the second fact, the once that he is now being looked at, is the Wolvish fact, then we must ask ourselves who the Wolf is that is instigating this whole possibly wild goose chase.

Of these two possibilities, I'm of the opinion that the first one seems more likely- and I would not be surprised indeed if there was a Wolf hiding in SamwiseGamgee. Nevertheless, if only because he has been so UN-suspicious over the past few days, it behooves us to ask WHY he is no longer unsuspicious. Have we begun to see through his disguise? Or are we being coerced into thinking we are?

I think the first more likely- but I do not discount the second.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 03:21 PM

It was Cailin this morning who first began to talk about Samwise, I think, and then Thinlomien followed up with her analysis of him.
Not saying that's suspicious, in itself. But that's my impression of how the Samwise thing began.

Valier

03-23-2006, 03:24 PM

The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I completely agree with you on this point! I have found this game and the players in it hard to judge. I have been fairly quiet and not throwing random and strange theories out there. I normally see weird connections and plans forming around me. I usually get a feeling about someone and say 8 times out of 10 I tend to be correct at the end. I see analysis as confusing, I swear my brain does not work that way. I think the things I see about others are usually arbitrary or soft in reasoning. But this game........wow it's hard to tell.

I think I will read over posts from Lalaith and samwise's posts and see what I can get out of them. I will likely vote for one of these two.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 03:27 PM

Er....Mithalwen isn't playing in this game, Valier....

Cailín

03-23-2006, 03:36 PM

First time experience for me: my computer crashed while I was writing an extended post. Good thing, perhaps. It was all nonsensical anyway.

I am still waiting for the Big Yellow Schoolbus to hit me.

Innocent(-looking)

Valier
Tar-ancalime
Gurthang
Cailín

Don't Know / Not Overly Suspicious

Formendacil
Lalaith
Thinlómien
Naria

Feel Slightly Uneasy About (mainly due to presumed intelligence)

Caranlondien
SamwiseGamgee

Feel Genuinely Worried About

Elempi

---

It basically comes down to this. Analysis is making my head hurt right now -my intellect seems to be failing the village- and I am inclined to vote instinctively toDay. I have a bad feeling about littlemanpoet (I always have bad feelings about him, though. Even when I was a wolf myself in XII I thought him guilty). Unless something eventful happens or I find evidence against mystifying Naria, I shall most likely vote for him.

Am rather sleepy now, so expect me back in about 8 hours from now.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 03:42 PM

I think we are all (I mean the innocents) feeling befuddled today, and I think voting is going to be scattered all over the place. I don't know who to vote for either, I've got a couple of hunches but that's really all they are, just hunches, no evidence.

And it's the scattering that worries me. The innocents are blundering, the wolves know what they are doing and they are focused. They'll be able to push through the lynch they want.

Lalaith

03-23-2006, 04:32 PM

I'm going to bed now. I'll be back to vote in the morning.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 05:08 PM

Right. Wasn't away six hours after all, but now that I'm back I want to voice something: Lommy has me thinking. Now, she didn't raise the issue of my being a wolf, but she was the one who ran with it. Now I'm not overlooking Cailin here, but I genuinely think her innocent. Lommy however, wasn't brave enough to accuse me first off, but she was willing to really get laid into me once someone else had. I know I'm innocent, and I know that if Lommy were the seer and had dreamed of me she'd know that as well. If she is the seer and hasn't dreamed of me then it'll hurt the whole village if I'm lynched, found to be my innocent self and she went after me like she did.

So, knowing how well the seer has played thus far and coupling that with my innocence I can't help but think that Lommy is acting somewhat wolfishly. I haven't had a very thorough look back through all she's said, so can't comment too strongly. However, with an early vote for me when a lot of folks seem to be viewing me with some suspicion I can't help but think that maybe she's trying to start a ball rolling which will get another innocent out of her way without her having to get her fangs dirty.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 05:27 PM

Cailin, I noticed you added presumed intelligence. Dead right. Very flattering, though, that some think me intelligent.

Just a few questions: Lalaith, what was your comment about Mith about? Missed that one.

Also, I am fine with people looking into me. If they do so I think the truth will out and I'll be found (and when all's said and done proven) innocent. However, let's be sure that we don't focus solely on me. There is, quite probably, a wolf flying below the radar, and that's what worries me. Now that doesn't necessarily mean they haven't been suspected yet, but it does mean that as this game goes on the less you say the more likely you are to come under fire.

However, my number one suspect at the moment is the fairly vocal Lommy. Analysis can be, as Valier pointed out, head-numbing. However, I'll follow up on my gut instinct and do some. If anyone else wishes to do so also feel free.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 05:27 PM

Part 4 will be coming soon. I just got it done, but I want to proof it first. It's pretty long, so I apologize for that much of it.

I'm with Samwise on this one. I've not been suspicious of him before, and I'm really surprised with how the village has taken off with the thought of lynching him. I haven't finished my complete analysis yet, just the research part, so I won't know exactly until I finish that.

I can see that Formendacil is pretty much staying out of it. Might be the right thing to do, as I don't know.

One thing I do find slightly odd is that Samwise seems a little overly protective of his own health. Which, to the contrary, brings up a good point towards Caranlondien in that she was questioned and decided to continue doing analysis rather than worrying about getting lynched. A wolf will be more worried about survival.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 05:51 PM

Analysis by Parts (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=455812&postcount=580)

First, I feel that I should point out that one of part of my analysis (Part 1 actually) was my gut instinct. However much you do or do not trust me, I doubt that anyone but me should be relying on my gut. So, I won't be offended if you pretty much just ignore that part when making your own conclusions.

Now, on with my analysis.

Part 4: Individual Voting:

Obviously, an innocent person can vote in a way that looks suspicious. It's not plausible that only the wolves would vote 'suspiciously' because the innocents don't really know for sure what they are doing( me included :rolleyes: ). That said, certain voting will still look suspicious, whether the person is innocent or not. So, this is how suspicious a vote looks, and I'll have to do it for each person seperately, so it will be long. I will be putting my own opinions in italics, so they can be easily seen as my own thoughts.

Caranlondien - Day 1: Votes for Anguirel. Gives decent reasoning. (0) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Still wants double lynch. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Widens gap between Kath and Lhuna. In light of the planned double-lynch, I really don't like this vote. (-1) Day 4: No vote.

tar-ancalime - Day 1: Votes for Farael. Hit the lover, but that doesn't really tell us much for Day 1. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eomer. Quotes reasons. Despite voting for an innocent, her extensive reasoning makes it less suspicious. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Narrows gap between Lhuna and Kath. Too easy for a wolf to vote for Lhuna, it wouldn't make sense for one to vote for Kath. (+1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Can't say yea or nea about it. I probably would have done the same. (0)

Cailín - Day 1: Votes "randomly" for Lalaith. Can't know anything for sure about this one. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Only current suspect with a vote already. Doesn't seem suspicious. (0) Day 3: No vote. This allows double lynch. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Naria - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. Her reasoning was strange, but typical Day 1 vote. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. "...after I jump on this bandwagon!!" (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Ties Kath and Lhuna with 3 voters left. Very unlikely for a wolf. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Valier - Day 1: Votes for Glirdan. Reasoning was occupation mostly, but Day 1 is random. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Votes for leader for being 'most annoying'. (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Narrows gap that ended in double-lynch. Wouldn't make sense for a wolf to vote this way, one Lhuna vote pretty much stops the double and doesn't look suspicious. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Lalaith - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. "Following his advice." Seems mildly suspicious, but not enough for a negative. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Because of Eonwe's random vote on Day 2. Could be a safe vote for a wolf, but just as easily could be enough reason for an innocent. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. This widened the gap between Kath and Lhuna (which was bad), so could be a wolf trying to save Kath. (-1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Ties Glirdan and Guy for doulbe-lynch. Can't tell anything from this, there were still many voters left. (0)

Thinlómien - Day 1: Votes for Glirdan. Seems most guilty to her. (0) Day 2: Votes for Naria. Votes for an unknown in a six way 2 unknown-2 wolf-2 innocent tie. Drawn between Lhuna and Naria, saw Naria as more suspect; I can't blame her. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. First vote for Lhuna. Could be setting up lover-wolf to look innocent. (0) Day 4: Votes for TGWBS. Can't really say anything, as I also was mildly suspicious of him. (0)

Formendacil - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. Ties Garin and Guy. He put up a tie between two innocents, but with all the support for double lynchings... (0) Day 2: Votes for Kath. Ensured Eonwe's death. It seems far to much like a wolf voting for a fellow when someone else already has the noose around their neck. (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Ties Lhuna-wolf with Kath-wolf. Extremely unlikely that a wolf would bring his true fellow up beside a Lover. (+1) Day 4: Votes for Naria. Votes for an unknown rather than bandwagoning, but could be wolf not breaking the tie. (0)

littlemanpoet - Day 1: Votes for Eomer. Seems retaliatory; although I, on Day 1, was also sure there was something going on between these two. Eomer was acting slightly odd, so no negative. (0) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Gives reasons through several posts. Extensive reasons and quotes seem unlikely, as it would be wolf building a case against wolf. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. After this, a double lynch would have been much more difficult. One more Lhuna vote might have doomed it. (-1) Day 4: Votes for TGWBS. Don't know anything. (0)

Gurthang - Day 1: Votes for LMP. I felt that there was something between Eomer and LMP and sided with Eomer. (0) Day 2: No Vote. Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Creats tie and double-lynch. (+1) Day 4: No Vote.

SamwiseGamgee - Day 1: Votes for Garin. Breaks Garin-Guy tie. I doubt a wolf would be worried enough to break a tie between two innocents. (+1) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Brings Lhuna into a tie for the lead. Unlikely for a wolf to bring up a fellow, even if he suspected her of Loverness. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Widens gap between wolf and Lover-wolf. In light of the planned double-lynch, I really don't like this. (-1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Can't tell anything. (0)

Extra +'s and -'s:

+1 for being first to vote for a wolf. A wolf would be less likely to push another wolf forward for lynch:
Thinlómien
Formendacil

+1 for voting for a wolf twice:
Caranlondien
Formendacil
LMP
Samwise

-1 for voting for an innocent thrice:
Lalaith

So, totals(top + extra):

Caranlondien -> -1 + +1 = 0
tar-ancalime -> +2 + 0 = +2
Cailín -> +1 + 0 = +1
Naria -> 0 + 0 = 0
Valier -> 0 + 0 = 0
Lalaith -> -1 + -1 = -2
Thinlómien -> 0 + +1 = +1
Formendacil -> 0 + +2 = +2
littlemanpoet -> 0 + +1 = +1
Gurthang -> +1 + 0 = +1
SamwiseGamgee -> +1 + +1 = +2

So, lastly, the inevitable list for this little voting test (by that I mean Part 4):

Looks innocent:
tar-ancalime
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Looks suspicious:
Lalaith
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier

I'll return later and finally decide what I conclude from all that. :rolleyes:

Formendacil

03-23-2006, 05:55 PM

I can see that Formendacil is pretty much staying out of it. Might be the right thing to do, as I don't know.

Alas, but I can stay out of it for no longer. I'm off to work pretty quick, and I might not be back before the deadline- if I'm back at all.

So I must vote.

Well, Samwise looks suspicious, right enough- there's no denying that. And, in the absence of other candidates (Naria's still around, I'll grant, but she wasn't TOO suspicious yesterday, and I'm too hesitant to do it today...), I guess I'm stuck with him.

++ SamwiseGamgee, with several misgivings.

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 06:09 PM

Question: Who has voted for the most innocents and Lhuna?

tar-ancalime: d1 Farael, d2 Eomer, d3 Kath, d4 Glirdan - 2 times.

Caranlondien: d1 Anguirel, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 no vote - 3 times.

Thinlómien: d1 Glirdan, d2 Naria, d3 Lhuna, d4 Guy - 3 times at least, perhaps 4.

Samwise: d1 Garin, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 Glirdan - 4 times.

Valier: d1 Glirdan, d2 Eonwe, d3 Kath, d4 no vote - 2 times.

Lalaith: d1 Guy, d2 Eonwe, d3 Lhuna, d4 Glirdan - 3 times.

Naria: d1 Guy, d2 Eonwe, d3 Kath, d4 no vote - 2 times.

Formy: d1 Guy, d2 Kath, d3 Kath, d4 Naria - 1 time, perhaps 2.

Gurthang: d1 LMP, d2 no vote, d3 Lhuna, d4 no vote - 2 times, but the d3 vote was legit.

Cailín: d1 Lalaith, d2 Eonwe, d3 no vote, d4 no vote - 1 time, perhaps 2.

LMP: d1 Eomer, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 Guy - 4 times.

Well, that doesn't change a whole lot except to bring Thinlómien a little higher on my suspicion list, and drop Caranlondien a bit. That leaves Samwise and me as those most deserving of votes for lynching. I leave this village to be the judge. My single-minded, single-hearted effort speaks for itself, and there is much that I've added to this discussion over the days, as you all know. I've tried to be as helpful as I could, given the limits upon my intelligence and value to this village. Do what you must.
****************
To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere.It should not have in my humble opinion, and I am to blame as much as anyone. But Guy may he r.i.p., is more culpable than most by attracting undue attention to himself for his Nilpy antics. Quite a distraction. Said distraction finally, mercifully, out of the way, fresh objectivity results in the current suspicions. That's the way this game goes. Samwise has been on my "probably innocent" list all game long too. But then it suddenly dawned on me that the werewolves, most likely well aware that Lhuna was the lover-werewolf, wanted her lynched. Thus, those who regularly voted for her are likely candidates for werewolf. The three who fit that catetory are Samwise, Caranlondien, and me. I've allowed myself to be played. That's why I think, despite their nay-saying to the contrary, that these two are most likely our werewolves.

If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise?That is a malady that I fall into over and over again, which is why I've been trying (and often failing) to stick to as objective a set of criteria as I can muster.

I think that we would do well to be as objective as possible toDay. All of our analysis and hunchy suspicion is proving to send us all over the board. Meanwhile, there is evidence in the votes. The later in the game, the more that evidence aids the village. It's really quite deplorable that the site was down for hours yesterDay, and many of us didn't get a chance to vote. That doesn't help. Nevertheless, I would like to urge calmness. Don't panic. The werewolves may be focused, but they're also desperate. Do the math and figure it out. That said, I vote now for one of the three against whom the evidence is most telling:

++ Samwise

My "final post" list has not changed since yesterDay, except for the removal of Guy, Glirdan, & Celuien from them.

There's just one thing I wish to add: though their voting records are evidence to the contrary, I can't get over this sick feeling that Valier & Naria are quietly laughing in their sleeves, watching us flounder about, looking at people for this, that, and the next reason, but no zeroing in on them. *sigh*

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 06:11 PM

I feel somewhat relieved to be voting the same as Formy, who has had an uncanny knack more often than not this game for getting the vote right. I see also that Gurthang has done a better job of what I was trying to do with the vote analysis. I hope mine helps a little bit.

tar-ancalime

03-23-2006, 06:16 PM

I'm starting to get verrrry worried about lmp.

Over and over again he tells us that a wolf will strive to say as many true things as possible so that the lies will slip through.

Again and again he brings up the Day 3 voting, reminding us that Lhuna voters are the most obvious suspects from that data pool. In an aw-shucks manner he notes his own presence in that cohort; is he hoping that his honest-Abe act of continually reminding us of that situation will make him look better? (the lmp of my mind: "But I didn't mean me! Would I really have kept bringing it up if I was a wolf?")

And frankly, his constant massaging of my and others' egos is starting to smack of flattery. I have to admit it's worked so far, but really, he's starting to lay it on a little thick, don't you think? Talking about my (and Caranlondien's, and spawn's) "intellectual acuity," proclaiming me innocent at least once a day (this would be one of the "true things" a wolf should say, btw).

And, finally, there's this:

b. Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP should be considered to be the most suspicious.
at the end of an analysis based on: voting, the suspicions of the dead innocents (looking for Seerish stuff, I think), and people who've given the "least help." These three have all voted for Lhuna twice; Samwise also shows up (wrongly, I think) on lmp's "least helpful list;" cutting him loose and ending the flattery, perhaps? Samwise and Caranlondien are also among the few who've been talked about today, with Samwise looking like an early favorite for lynching.

The wolf-poet is bowing to expediency again, as he did when he voted to get rid of Lhuna, and as he has done throughout the game when he has flattered those whom he wished to influence, or whom he saw as threatening. Note that not too long ago, both Caranlondien and Samwise showed up on these "too smart to be guilty" lists.

Also, this list of three suspects (which conveniently includes the hot topics of the day) once again includes himself. It's the same shtick he's been pulling for days with his constant reminders that he voted for Lhuna. (the lmp of my mind again: "Aw, c'mon guys! I'm just being scrupulously honest, here! I didn't really mean me!")

I'm becoming more and more tempted to call his bluff. However, my hand is stayed by the knowledge that I was one of Glirdan's most vocal critics yesterday, and look where that got us! Pride goeth before a fall, and I was very proud of myself for voting Farael on Day 1, challenging Lhuna on the non-tiebreak, and voting for Kath. So I'll wait a little (call it a cooling-off period) before casting my vote.

EDIT: Cross-posted with a whole lotta people; I don't have time to consider all of these posts right now.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 06:17 PM

Note: I typed this up before Gurthang posted his voting analysis, and before Formendacil voted, but the site was acting all weird and I had to reload it...

Formendacil made a good response to my last comment. But speaking of flying under the radar... he is certainly doing so.

For the moment though, my suspicions are focused on Samwise and LMP. I have to say I'm more suspicious of LMP than of Samwise. I'm afraid I may have a case of, well, whatever disease you want to call it when you get suspicious of whomever you analyze. Thinlomien made a good point about that.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 06:22 PM

Tar-a, thanks for putting into words everything I was thinking but couldn't quite put my finger on about LMP. Like you, I'm feeling a little doubtful (as I was a strong critic of TGWBS yesterday), but LMP seems very subtley manipulative.

tar-ancalime

03-23-2006, 06:30 PM

All right. I know I said I would wait. But I've looked at my magical hourglass, and it tells me I've got to get out of here and over to the spell factory before the forewitch fires me!

++littlemanpoet

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 06:36 PM

I'm going to go eat dinner, and I'll vote when I get back. My vote will probably go for LMP.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 06:40 PM

Well, I've been back through the posts and Lommy, I've got to say that whilst my suspicions of you have not disappeared, they have been eclipsed by my suspicions of LMP. I don't like the way that (and I know these have been said before) a. he flatters; b. he includes himself in suspect lists each day and then magically just becomes unsuspicious in those same lists 6hrs later; and c. the way that there are those who have 'fallen out of favour' and are now suddenly coming under increasing suspicion, almost one by one.

And Form's comment of my suspicion coming out of nowhere he seems overly keen to explain away, moreso than others who have dealt with the issue. (That's how it seems to me, anyway.)

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 06:51 PM

Okay, so my conclusions.

Appeared on the suspicious lists:

Caranlondien - 1, 2, 3, 4
Naria - 1, 4
Valier - 1, 3, 4
LMP - 1, 2
Thinlomien - 2
Lalaith - 2, 4
SamwiseGamgee - 2, 3
Gurthang - 2
tar-ancalime - 3

Appeared on the innocent lists:

Cailín - 1, 2
Formendacil - 1, 2, 3, 4
SamwiseGamgee - 1, 4
tar-ancalime - 2, 4
Valier - 2
Naria - 2, 3
Lalaith - 3
LMP - 3

So, in order from most suspicious to least:

1. Caranlondien (4,0)
2. Valier (3, 1)
3. LMP (2,1)
3. Lalaith (2,1)
5. Naria (2,2)
5. Samwise (2,2)
7. Gurthang (1,0)
7. Thinlomien (1,0)
9. tar-ancalime (1,2)
10. Cailin (0,2)
11. Formendacil (0,4)

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 07:09 PM

Voting:

SamwiseGamgee - 3 (Thin, Formendacil, LMP)
littlemanpoet - 1 (tar-a)

Left to vote:

Gurthang
Cailin
Caran
Naria
Valier
Lalaith
Samwise

Two things:

I would be okay with a double lynch again toDay. I haven't been very suspicious of Samwise, but he has three votes already, and I won't be surprised by more. If we do do a double, I'd like to see at least one of my top 4: Caran, Valier, Lalaith, LMP. I'll be sticking around for awhile, so I'll vote later.

Thing two. Tomorrow, should I be dead, I want the Seer to remember something. If you know three innocents besides yourself, then come forward and declare yourself and the innocents. It would then be 4 knowns vs. either 5 or 4 unknowns (two wolves). At that point it becomes a game of numbers and we can just double lynch our way to victory.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 07:15 PM

Okay, I'm going to go over toDay's posts one more time, but unless some amazing revelation occurs to me, I'm voting for LMP, as I said earlier.

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 07:28 PM

I dreamed Celuien last Night. How frustrating. It could have been five known innocents and a mathematical game from here on out. Oh well.

Spawn and I dreamt of Lhuna on Night 1, but we didn't want to vote for her on Day 1 because we feared that we'd both look like the two seers. So I've stayed as hidden as I could.

The other three innocents are:

Gurthang,
Lalaith,
Cailín.

There you have it. It's been swell. Carry on everyone, I'll be dead come morning.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 07:45 PM

Oh... dear.

I couldn't be sorrier... So, um... sorry. I just, well, wondered why the werewolves hadn't killed so obvious a target. And maybe it was so that this would happen.

I know this looks bad for me, but, I just hope you'll look carefully at tar-a, too (Although I sympathize with her, because I was thinking the same thing).

If I were in your collective shoes, I would lynch me. So I don't really know what to say about that. But I'll go back... and re-read, with the knowledge I have now.

EDIT: typo

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 07:50 PM

Ahem, I no longer want to lynch littlemanpoet. :rolleyes:

Unless someone else comes and claims to be the Seer, I'm going to take Elempi at his word.

First off, thank you very much LMP, you've been an awesome Seer. Getting three innocents should definitely more than enough. Sorry, if I flushed you out. :(

Okay, new plan. Taking out the known innocents from my list we get:

Caranlondien
Valier
Naria
Samwise
Thin
tar-a
Formendacil

My top four still have yet to vote, so I'll wait until they do to vote. Anyone who has to leave, please vote for someone other than Samwise or the newly released innocents. We need to do a double toDay.

SamwiseGamgee

03-23-2006, 07:59 PM

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 07:59 PM

Caranlondien is actually sitting very well with me. She has been taking most of this calmly, and quite frankly in an unwolfish manner.

I'd suggest double lynching Samwise and Valier toDay.

Oh, and to Naria and Caran: Please do not vote for Samwise. I will think better of both of you if you would vote for Valier. I can't really ask her to vote for herself, nor would I ask Samwise to do the same to himself.

I almost feel like I'm taking over the village, but I think we can win if we act quickly. I'd love to see the following votes:

Naria - Valier
Caran - Valier
Valier - Samwise
Samwise - Valier

That would put it to:

Samwise - 4
Valier - 3

And then Lalaith, Cailin and I can handle it from there. Lalaith and Cailin, how long can you stick around?

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 08:00 PM

Um, I have to go soon. So I'm wondering who to vote for.

Like I said, I understand if you guys do a double-lynch of me and Samwise; but as I know I'm innocent, I have to choose someone else to vote for. I don't want to make it any more difficult for you guys to coordinate the double-lynch by giving Samwise another vote. I'm leaning towards Naria.

EDIT: cross-posted with Gurthang.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 08:04 PM

I don't think I like Samwise's idea... it just gives the werewolves an extra kill. And I don't think their kill tonight will tell us anything, except that they can read.

EDIT: I have to stop getting so excited; Too many typos lately...

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 08:06 PM

We have seven votes left. At present I have three and LMP has one.

I recall my ancestors suggesting something similar to what I'm about to say now, and it didn't go over well then, but here's my suggestion: we lynch LMP today along with someone else. This would remove the obvious choice from the wolves of who to kill tonight, and we may be able to glean something from who they decide to eat come nightfall. As I see it, LMP will be dead by sunrise. It's cold, but I think it may just be in the best interests of the village if we kill him ourselves rather than leave him to the wolves.
Now he, my dear ladies and gentlemen, is a most wolvish post. By lynching me along with someone else, you remove the werewolves' need to kill me during the Night. Only a werewolf would have the gall to suggest lynching a known innocent. Do the werewolves' work for them? I think not. Werewolves are getting desperate now, I dare say.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 08:08 PM

I have to go now, so I'll follow Gurthang's plan:

++Valier

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 08:11 PM

I agree that Caranlondien should not be one of the lynchees. She feels innocent to me.

I'm still not convinced that you guys want to do a double lynch toDay, not as long as there are two werewolves out there. Even though I doubt Samwise is innocent, I don't want to see the village risking another double lynch of innocents.

If you lynch just Samwise and he turns out to be innocent, there are still 9 villagers tomorrow, with still more voting record. If he turns out to be a werewolf, as I expect, then with three known innocents left, plus such redoubtably believable villagers such as tar-ancalime and maybe even Caranolondien, the chances for the werewolves will look slim indeed.

Uh oh, just had an awful thought. What if tar has been doing an incredible job of pulling the wool over all our eyes? :eek: Ack! Stop that, LMP! One lynchee at a time, I say!

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 08:25 PM

I don't know. I think we have at least an equal shot, if not a better one, if we do a double-lynching toDay. We've already decided to off Samwise toDay, and it seems that if we do a double lynching now, we get that one extra kill over the wolves. That's what I would do if it was up to me, but LMP has the call, since he the Seer

Anyway, you know what I'd like to do. I have to leave for about an hour and a half. I'll save my vote until close to the end.

Valier

03-23-2006, 08:31 PM

Wow what a quick change in plans!! I come back after a couple of hours and now I'm up for a double lynch! I tell you you are making a mistake! I swear this is always how I get lynched, with someone more suspisious than me and I get killed for being what? I don't get why the sudden change and vote for me?:( I am an Ordo I assure you, if you kill me today you may just kill two innocents again! Or at least one (me!)

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 09:05 PM

I thought I wouldn't be able to get back, but I have, for just a little while. It seems to me that Gurthang is right about double-lynches. We are in a race now to get the werewolves before they manage to kill all the known innocents. That's just my thought on it; I may be overlooking something.

littlemanpoet

03-23-2006, 10:03 PM

If you think a double lynch is the best strategy, do it. I wish the ordos the best. Fare thee well. I'll see you all on the other side.....

Naria

03-23-2006, 10:11 PM

Oh, and to Naria and Caran: Please do not vote for Samwise. I will think better of both of you if you would vote for Valier

What? Huh?!! I come back and this is what has happened! I don't agree with it. I really don't care what you are to think of me Gurthang...it hasn't bothered me up to this point why should it bother me any further. I do however, think Samwise to be a little furry in light of our dear Seer's thoughts. And I think a congratulations is in order for all of those who forced Lmp out! :rolleyes: I had absolutely no suspicion of him in any way. If you had read his post when he mentions being 'valued', I mean actually read it, that is where you would have come to the same conclusion as I did.

With my rant over I would like to say that Caran is actually becoming quite suspicious to me. If you were to think of it, how could a newbie know as much as she does, being this is her First ww game? She has consistently said and done all of the 'right' things in our eyes without much hesitation right from Day one. Since the wolves are able to pm eachother Day and Night, this would explain why she has been able to keep her cool so to speak and just follow and listen to the advice from a more experienced wolf. If she is an Ordo, then hats off to her, but I just don't think she is. Either her or Samwise will get my vote this Day.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 10:26 PM

Naria: Gurthang asked us not to vote for Samwise because he wants to coordinate a double-lynch. If you guys want to double-lynch me and Samwise, I'm fine with that, because I understand the need to get rid of "the unknowns." I can also potentially see questions as to my guilt being a distraction from useful discussion. I already voted for Valier because I didn't expect I'd be able to get back toDay, and since Gurthang is a known innocent, I thought it would be a good idea to follow his plan.

As for my being suspicious because I'm a newbie, it should be noted that my brother has told me tales of a village our ancestors lived in... (Which is, in fact, why I came to live in this fair town).

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 10:30 PM

Very well, Valier and Naria have voiced their opposition to following the plan I suggested.

Here's how I would break it down. If we start doing double lynches, the Days would go as follows.

ToDay: 4 knowns to 7 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns.
ToNight: 4 knowns to 5 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies.
Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 5 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns.
Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 3 unknowns; one known dies.
Next Day: 2 knowns to 3 unknowns; another double lynch.

At this point there are 2 knowns left and 1 unknown. If the one unknown happens to be a wolf, then the game is over in the wolves favor. If that one unknown is not a wolf, then the village has won. Doing it this way gives us, as a village, a 5/7 chance of winning. That's 71%. Meaning if we just drew names from a hat, we would have that good of a chance of winning.

If we do single lynchings from here on out, it would go more like this:

Today: 4 to 7 (knowns to unknowns)
ToNight: 4 to 6
Tomorrow: 3 to 6
Tomorrow Night: 3 to 5
Next Day: 2 to 5
Next Night: 2 to 4
Next Day: 1 to 4
Next Night: 1 to 3
Next Day: 0 to 3

The wolves would only need to survive that last day. That means that of the two people who would be left, only 1 needs to be a wolf. In my mind, this effectively doubles the wolves chances of winning, because they don't have to be the last unknown, they just have to be one of the last two unknowns.

Anyone still in doubt of the merit of doing double lynchings from here on out? And regardless of if you do, I think that we should at least do one toDay while we have the advantage of knowing four peoples innocence.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 10:39 PM

Wait a minute. If I read the game thread correctly, tar-a will be taken away toNight. This is good for us as a village. Let me redo my numbers.

ToDay: 4 knowns to 6 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns.
ToNight: 4 knowns to 4 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies.
Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 4 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns.
Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 2 unknowns; one known dies.
Next Day: 2 knowns to 2 unknowns; another double lynch.

Leaving 2 knowns and no one else for the villager win. :D

Valier and Naria, if you are really innocent villagers, then you must see that we can win doing this. Please, realize that the village has the victory in the bag if we work together.

P.S. if the wolves would decide to kill tar-a toNight, it would leave our Seer alive for another dream.

Valier

03-23-2006, 10:46 PM

So what are you saying Gurthang that I should sacrifice myself for the good of the village?

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 10:50 PM

So what are you saying Gurthang that I should sacrifice myself for the good of the village?

If you're innocent, yes. If you do, it guarantees a win for the village.

Valier

03-23-2006, 10:51 PM

I don't get all this math! Explain to me how this will work? What if Sam is an Ordo too?

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 10:53 PM

Valier: Unfortunately, LMP didn't dream about us. So people don't know whether we're innocent. Gurthang's plan gives us the best chance of winning. This plan won't allow us to completely avoid lynching innocents; So some of us have to be lynched for the greater good.

So, yes, he's asking you to sacrifice yourself for the good of the village.

Valier

03-23-2006, 10:55 PM

Well I can't say I agree with this "plan" but I will wait if others agree........well who knows? :confused:

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 10:55 PM

My last post was cross-posted with Gurthang and Valier.

The idea is that we kill everyone on the "unknowns" list; this is the only method that guarantees we'll kill the wolves.

Valier

03-23-2006, 10:59 PM

Well there is four votes besides myself...I hope others arrive soon and give their input.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 11:06 PM

I don't get all this math! Explain to me how this will work? What if Sam is an Ordo too?

If both you and Samwise are ordinary and lynched tonight, then that would mean we would have 4 known innocents (LMP, Me, Cailin, Lalaith) and 5 people that we don't know about (Caran, Naria, tar-a, Form, Thin).

The wolves are most likely going to kill LMP toNight. That would leave us with 3 known innocents (Me, Cailin, Lalaith) going into tomorrow. Nilp left a post in the Original WW thread saying that tar-a will be 'whisked away' toNight because of RL issues. That will leave 4 unknown people (Caran, Naria, Form, Thin).

We would do another double lynching tomorrow of (maybe) Caran and Naria, leaving 3 known innocents (Me, Cailin, Lalaith) and 2 unknowns (Form, Thin).

Another known innocent dies during the next Night. Let's say it's me. That leaves Cailin and Lalaith left to coordinate that double lynching of Form and Thin.

So, at the end, we have Cailin and Lalaith left standing for the villager victory.

Despite your questioning, Valier, I almost believe you about being innocent. The only trouble is that we have to do a double toDay, and I don't think we can get both Samwise and Naria, who I believe are our wolves. They both have yet to vote, so I think that you and Samwise are the only double lynch we could pull off. And like I said, we have to start toDay if we want to do this.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:09 PM

Thinlomien -> Samwise (Samwise 1)
Formendacil -> Samwise (Samwise 2)
littlemanpoet -> Samwise (Samwise 3)
tar-ancalime -> LMP (Samwise 3, LMP 1)
Caranlondien -> Valier (Samwise 3, Valier 1, LMP 1)

As I've said before, I like lists :)

Sorry if my early vote limited our options, but I was concerned I wouldn't be able to get back toDay, and I knew that all the votes were important if we wanted to pull of a double-lynch.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 11:11 PM

Valier, this may seem like an odd request, but I think that we might have some trouble with Samwise and Naria. Hold out as long as you can, but if they haven't voted yet when you need to leave, do you think you could vote for yourself? That would help us out immensely.

I don't know where Cailin or Lalaith are; I trust that they'll be here before the deadline, though.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:12 PM

Another known innocent dies during the next Night. Let's say it's me. That leaves Cailin and Lalaith left to coordinate that double lynching of Form and Thin.

Wait... worst case scenario, Form and Thin are the last two werewolves. In that case it's a wolf win, isn't it?

Sorry, I thought I understood it and then I started getting tired...

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:16 PM

I mean in your hypothetical situation... What I meant was that the worst case scenario would be that the two unknowns left are wolves.

Naria

03-23-2006, 11:20 PM

So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?

Valier

03-23-2006, 11:21 PM

*Pouts*:(

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:23 PM

So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?
Well, the ModGod didn't say that she would be killed by wolves, so I think it would be safer to assume not.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 11:25 PM

Wait... worst case scenario, Form and Thin are the last two werewolves. In that case it's a wolf win, isn't it?

Yes, this is true, and the only way that the wolves could win. But, as a village, we only need to lynch one werewolf in the next two days for that not to happen. I hope we are capable of doing that at least.

So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?

I don't know. If the wolves did kill her, then that would mean that LMP would be left alive for another dream. That would actually be very good for the village if they decided to kill tar-a.

Valier

03-23-2006, 11:27 PM

I don't know. If the wolves did kill her, then that would mean that LMP would be left alive for another dream. That would actually be very good for the village if they decided to kill tar-a.

This is laughable!!! Ya ok the wolves won't kill the self confessed seer....Ha!:rolleyes:

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:28 PM

I think Gurthang means if the ModGod decides that the wolves decide to kill tar-a :D

Valier

03-23-2006, 11:31 PM

Huh? I totally didn't get that?:eek:

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 11:31 PM

*Pouts*:(

Don't look at me! :p

If you're mad about me asking you to vote for yourself, then blame Naria. If she would hurry up and vote, then you wouldn't have to vote for yourself. If Naria votes for you, then you need to vote for Samwise. Or, if you really feel suicidal, you can still vote for yourself if you want to. ;)

This is laughable!!! Ya ok the wolves won't kill the self confessed seer....Ha!

Yes, they don't have much of a choice. If they kill LMP, then tar-a dies anyway, thus giving the village the double-lynch to victory. If they kill tar-a, littlemanpoet is left alive to dream yet another Night. I think it was just Naria trying to find a loophole.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:34 PM

What I was thinking was that since Tar-a had to leave anyway, the ModGod would just "write her in" so to speak, as dying at the wolves' hands; he would make the decision for them.

I don't know if that's how things will go, though.

Gurthang

03-23-2006, 11:35 PM

I think Gurthang means if the ModGod decides that the wolves decide to kill tar-a :D

Okay, let me try to explain what I was thinking.

The whole thing about lynching our way to victory is only "guaranteed" (as much as it can be) if two die toNight. Knowing this, the wolves will only want to kill one. But, that doesn't work in their favor either.

If they want one to die, they would have to pick tar-a, who will die regardless. But that leaves LMP alive to dream again, which helps the village.

But if they choose LMP, then tar-a will be gone anyway, and the double-lynching plan will be followed through.

Caranlondien

03-23-2006, 11:38 PM

I hadn't even thought of that... this gives me hope.

Naria

03-23-2006, 11:40 PM

I think it was just Naria trying to find a loophole.

No loophole? Dang nabbit!! and I thought that there would have been one there :rolleyes:

Naria

03-24-2006, 12:02 AM

I understand the direction in which you want to take the village Gurthang. What I have a problem with is already having the knowledge that I will definitely be caught in a double lynch next Day. In a way it's disconcerting and in another way it's rather humorous....I have no chance in saving myself. So if everyone agrees to your plan then I guess I will leave it up to the village and not even bother to try and find a wolf. It sounds to me like you want to just keep on double lynching and hope to catch a wolf or two in there....so why should anybody post next Day? We might as well just get right to the double lynch and save ourselves some time, according to you. Please stop being such a ninny, I am no more a wolf than you are:) :p

Caranlondien

03-24-2006, 12:05 AM

I don't think the vote tomorrow is limited to you and me, Naria. I think the idea is to try to kill the werewolves as soon as possible, based on analysis. But we're choosing two a day, from the unknown list. This doesn't eliminate analysis and reasoning.

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 12:14 AM

....so why should anybody post next Day? We might as well just get right to the double lynch and save ourselves some time, according to you. Please stop being such a ninny, I am no more a wolf than you are:) :p

Let's worry about 'next Day' when it gets here. Right now, I see you refusing to vote with a pattern that will as much assure a village victory as anything else that we have out there. Actually, said pattern will better assure the village's victory than anything else previously stated. You refusing to do this for the village screams wolf to me.

If you have a better plan, say so. If not, then please vote for Valier as I've suggested.

Naria

03-24-2006, 12:24 AM

I get the Plan....gahh. My point was that no matter how one slices it, we are still gunna die next Day, according to Gurthang's Plan. Guess we'll see.... :(

I am not outright refusing to go along with your Plan Gurthang! I have a problem voting for someone that I have not suspected and still don't....aargh...I hate this :mad:

++Valier

For the 'better good of the village' *sigh*

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 12:27 AM

For the 'better good of the village'

Thank you. :)

Valier, you can now vote for yourself (if you feel suicidal) or for Samwise; whichever you please.

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 12:32 AM

For everyone's knowledge:

Samwise - 3 (Thin, Form, LMP)
Valier - 2 (Caran, Naria)
LMP - 1 (tar-a)

Left to vote:
Valier
Samwise

Those two should vote for each other.

Cailin
Lalaith
Gurthang

We'll hold our votes to ensure the double.

Valier

03-24-2006, 12:36 AM

Wow now I guess it's time for little ol' me to die then.......ok then.......I guess this is goodbye.

OH FAIR PROPHET I BEG OF YOU....PLEASE LET ME DIE A QUICK AND PAINLESS DEATH!!!!!!

++Valier

*Utters the words; "good bye fair world!"*

*Then sighs and faints dramatically*

( Ok, Ok,let me have my moment..:p )

Naria

03-24-2006, 12:43 AM

I am off to bed now....I hope that Samwise is a wolf because I'm not convinced that Valier is. Night all :)

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 12:44 AM

Thank you Valier. :)

Samwise - 3 (Thin, Form, LMP)
Valier - 3 (Caran, Naria, Valier)
LMP - 1 (tar-a)

I don't think Samwise is going to vote anytime soon. No matter, I'll be here to offset him. *sits down to have a smoke and wait* :smokin:

So that there's no cross-posting mix-up, Cailin and Lalaith, please tell me who you are going to vote for before you do. Thank you.

Formendacil

03-24-2006, 01:52 AM

Wow!

Interesting day, indeed....

All the same, LMP coming under suspicion, his forced revelation, and the possibility that he may well die tonight (almost certain, unless Wolf X is a complete idiot...), is rather depressing.

Still, I have to say that you probably survived long enough to give us the probability of a village win, LMP. By giving us three Known Innocent names, you've probably ensured a village victory. I don't know about ALL village victories in the past, but any game I've played where the Seer survived to give the village a core to rally around came a LOT closer to victory (or actually got right to it) than otherwise.

As for Gurthang's double-lynching plan... I'm still opposed to double-lynchings. I don't like them and I never have, although it is conceiveable that some day I'll come around to them. However, I have to admit that the plan seems fairly ironclad, and despite my "moral" reservations about it, I see no reason (as yet) not to proceed with it.

Lalaith

03-24-2006, 02:04 AM

Good morning everyone, what interesting reading I've had since I got up.

Goodbye brave Seer, well done. *hugs lmp*

Tar-a's whisking -what a shame. Unless of course, she turns out to be a wolf....

My hunches, btw, were Thinlomien and Formendacil. Nothing in particular, I just felt Form wasn't, well, quite playing to form, and what Cailin said about Lommy this morning (that with anyone else she'd have her down as a wolf) was more or less exactly what I'd been thinking too.

So, Gurthang, I shall vote for Samwise. In the next post, to avoid cross posting.

Lalaith

03-24-2006, 02:05 AM

Here we go.

++SAMWISE

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 02:09 AM

Thank you Lalaith. Cailin, when you arrive, we need you to vote for Valier.

Cailín

03-24-2006, 02:11 AM

Wow, a lot has happened! I am a bit panicky right now, as my internet was not working this morning and I had to rush to campus to be here on time...

So I only scanned the posts. LMP - I am very, very sorry. But I first thought you were the Seer indeed and then you lived and lived... it was too weird.

Anyway, who do I need to vote for?

Cailín

03-24-2006, 02:13 AM

Ah, I see.

++VALIER

And thanks, littlemanpoet. Your sacrifice will not be in vain. :)

SamwiseGamgee

03-24-2006, 02:30 AM

++ Valier

Cailín

03-24-2006, 02:31 AM

Sneak! :eek:

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 02:31 AM

++SamwiseGamgee

I tried doing this once. It didn't work out for me either. :rolleyes:

SamwiseGamgee

03-24-2006, 02:32 AM

Your post is at 8.31 AM, Gurthang. Does the prophet hear my case?

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 02:36 AM

Your post is at 8.31 AM, Gurthang. Does the prophet hear my case?

This is true, and that's completely up to him. But I thought you believed in 'playing to the whistle'. :p I don't think he'll discount my vote, he hasn't been doing that this game that I know of. Even if he does, you'll be lynched tomorrow for sure.

Oh, and that's 2:31am for me, thank you very much! :rolleyes:

SamwiseGamgee

03-24-2006, 02:39 AM

I know. Don't think me petulent, I'm just trying to escape the noose! :D

Gurthang

03-24-2006, 02:41 AM

I know. Don't think me petulent, I'm just trying to escape the noose! :D

I can't really blame you for that, and I hope you won't blame me for going to bed! Good night.

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-24-2006, 02:42 AM

'Who dares to post after me?' said the Mod. 'Who dares to say whether votes count or not? You will vote, mortal, and I will count them. The blood of the banker and the sheep-shearer shall be shed toDAY.'

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-24-2006, 03:01 AM

Valier and SamwiseGamgee were to be toDAY's sacrifice to the altar of lynching. The two protested their innocence as they were bound and led outside the village.

'But I give reasonable interest rates! I'm not be a loanshark!' said Samwise

'Yes, but you're a Werewolf,' said lmp. 'Be gone with him!'

'But what about my sheep?!' asked Valier sweetly.

'They shall be taken care of,' said Thinlómien.

Suddenly Samwise burst from his bonds as he morphed into his NIGHT form. He grew bigger, fangs grew out of his mouth, brown fur covered his body. He had become a Werewolf.

The events that happened afterwards were immortalised by these staves:

The town banker came down like a wolf on the fold
And his pockets were gleaming with silver and gold.
With a bite from his maw he took Valier away
With a shot from his bow Gurthang killed him that DAY.

'Well,' said littlemanpoet, 'we have only one left to trouble us now.'

SamwolfGamgee replied with his dying breath, 'I'll see you again soon, Seer.'

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.
Celuien, an Ordinary Villager, was 'Freud' alive on the fifth NIGHT.
Valier, an Ordinary Villager, was eaten by SamwolfGamgee on the fifth DAY.
SamwiseGamgee, a Werewolf, was shot by Gurthang on the fifth DAY.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Gurthang, an arrowsmith

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-25-2006, 04:26 AM

Coming home from the lynching that DAY, tar-ancalime saw a message in her voicemail. It was from her associates in the future. They were being systematically hunted, and they need her aid. For tar-ancalime was no ordinary witch, but a Technical Services Sorceress, who aided witches and warlocks who were being pursued by authorities. She packed her portmanteau with extraction kits, and, after taking one last look out her window, zapped herself to the future.

Not far away from her, someone else needed an extrication. littlemanpoet was pacing nervously inside his cabin, waiting for an attack, hoping that it would not come. But come it did.

The door was smashed to pieces by a single blow. In came the last Werewolf of Ened-in-Nowhere.

'Ah, it is you, [name deleted],' said the stone-cutter.

'So, you know me, eh?' said the Werewolf. 'A little dream told you, perhaps?'

lmp nodded curtly, while playing with the heavy hammer in his hand.

'We'll end those dreams now, then.'

Elempí, fearing a cunning trap, rushed at the Werewolf. The Werewolf jumped back out of his house, lifted a boulder, and, using unnatural strength, threw it at him. The Seer was crushed in the path of the huge rock as it smashed into a wall of his house.

'You shall see no more,' said the Werewolf.

'My fellow villagers shall get you,' said littlemanpoet, and then he died.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.
Celuien, an Ordinary Villager, was 'Freud' alive on the fifth NIGHT.
Valier, an Ordinary Villager, was eaten by SamwolfGamgee on the fifth DAY.
SamwiseGamgee, a Werewolf, was shot by Gurthang on the fifth DAY.
tar-ancalime, an Ordinary Villager, went to the future on the sixth NIGHT.
littlemanpoet, a Seer, was crushed by a boulder on the sixth NIGHT.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
Cailín, the town gossip
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
Gurthang, an arrowsmith

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 07:31 AM

Good morning, remaining villagers. Bravo, noble arrowsmith, for yet another heroic vigil. Bravo, Valier, for your self-sacrifice. Bravo LMP, who was as we feared taken from us last night.

Now, the wolf is one of these four:

Caranlondien
Naria
Formendacil
Thinlomien

We need to do a double lynch today. The question is who to select.
Here's my plan.

Thinlomien was the mainspring behind yesterday's sudden focus on Samwise. She is therefore unlikely to be a wolf.
I also think Naria should be spared today. Going back to the conclusions I drew from my analysis of Celuien's posts:
If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.
Now, it transpired that Gurthang and LMP were indeed innocents and Samwise was indeed a wolf. And look at his response to the Celuien question:
There is, of course, value in going back over what she said, but there's not a huge amount to find, I feel.
Oh but there was, Mr Wolf. So can we also assume that Naria is probably innocent?
The other person who didn't find anything interesting in the Celuien question was Form. Make of that what you will.
Anyway, the upshot of all this is that I suggest that Caranlondien and Formendacil should be our lynchees today.
Cailin has said she will probably not be able to vote.
Gurthang, do you think we can pull this one off on our own? I hope so. And I'm open to other combinations of double lynchees if you don't agree with my thesis...

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 07:44 AM

Oh, and as for my Mith comment:
Valier originally quoted Mithalwen, rather than Thinlomien, in her post. After I pointed it out, she went back and edited it....

Caranlondien

03-25-2006, 09:28 AM

Bravo, noble arrowsmith, for yet another heroic vigil. Bravo, Valier, for your self-sacrifice. Bravo LMP, who was as we feared taken from us last night.
Bravo, indeed!

Since our numbers now favor us greatly, I rejoice and am perfectly willing to be sacrificed toDay, if need be. Once others have posted and the known innocents have reached a consensus on who to lynch, I will vote in whichever way is requested of me.

:D Victory is at hand!

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 10:33 AM

Since our numbers now favor us greatly, I rejoice and am perfectly willing to be sacrificed toDay, if need be. Once others have posted and the known innocents have reached a consensus on who to lynch, I will vote in whichever way is requested of me.

I'm actually feeling much better about Caranlondien. She seems very willing, and has for the past couple of Days, to sacrafice herself for the village.

I would almost rather do a double of Naria and Formendacil. Originally, yesterday, I had wanted to do a Naria and Caranlondien, but Caran has been extremely helpful, I think. Let me go see if I can scrounge anything up that will help me out. I'll try to hurry, since we need to get things started early rather than late.

Also, I may not be around at the end of the Day, Lalaith, are you willing to hold your vote until the end?

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 11:19 AM

Yes, that should be ok. We stay on GMT on the board, don't we? (Because the clocks are moving forward here tonight...)
I hope any innocent who is lynched won't take it personally. :(

Naria

03-25-2006, 11:26 AM

So here we are then....I am an innocent villager and am willing to sacrifice myself toDay, just as poor poor Valier the Day before.*sigh*

I am taking into consideration the goings on from the end of last Day's voting.Formen has been acting weird this game to say the least and his behaviour from the double lynch was not right. I had a problem with it only because I didn't want to vote for Valier, may she rest in peace. He was the only one the blantently disagreed with the double lynch plan. Think about it, he's the only one that isn't willing to sacrifice himself to help the village or go along with it, at any cost. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he voted third for Samwise which is awfully convenient to make himself look innocent by voting for his fellow wolf. Then he comes back on right at the end of the Day just to make the comment that he is opposed to double lychings he doesn't like them. Was this just a last minute attempt to make himself look innocent?

I say we vote for myself and Form toDay. Putting an end to this wolfish rampage. What say you?

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 11:38 AM

Yes, that should be ok. We stay on GMT on the board, don't we? (Because the clocks are moving forward here tonight...)
I hope any innocent who is lynched won't take it personally. :(

Just to be sure, is this ok meaning you can stay for the deadline, or ok that we lynch Naria and Formendacil? As far as time for the boards is concerned, I don't have any idea. I'd guess they'd stay at GMT.

I really am beginning to think that Formendacil is the other wolf. I can't say that any of the evidence really points to him, but he has been acting strangely. I agree that Thin can be left until tomorrow.

So who should go with Formendawolf, Lalaith: Naria or Caran?

Formendacil

03-25-2006, 11:49 AM

I am taking into consideration the goings on from the end of last Day's voting.Formen has been acting weird this game to say the least and his behaviour from the double lynch was not right. I had a problem with it only because I didn't want to vote for Valier, may she rest in peace. He was the only one the blantently disagreed with the double lynch plan. Think about it, he's the only one that isn't willing to sacrifice himself to help the village or go along with it, at any cost. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he voted third for Samwise which is awfully convenient to make himself look innocent by voting for his fellow wolf. Then he comes back on right at the end of the Day just to make the comment that he is opposed to double lychings he doesn't like them. Was this just a last minute attempt to make himself look innocent?

Naria, you just made my day...

I'm not a wolf- not that I expect you to believe that- but to say in the same paragraph that I'm "acting weird" and that I'm the one who "blatantly disagreed with the double-lynching plan" is hilarious. Obviously, you've not played enough games with me yet, because I've ALWAYS been opposed to double-lynchings. I either oppose them before the game when the Mod calls for a show of hands, or during the game if he/she lets them in.

That said, I'm well aware that there's no point at all in opposing a double-lynch at this point. With a bevy of Known Innocents directing the operations, we can be almost definitely assured of a village victory. Pretty much the only thing that can mess that up is another whisking away like Tar-Ancalime's.

That said, I STILL don't like double-lynchings, but I appreciate that they are probably the best thing to do at the moment.

Now, naturally, I'm not really all that interested in dying today... I'd prefer to survive to the end of the game (although with the double-lynchings happening, that won't be the case). I've got my stats on the Grimoire to think of, you know.

I'm going to be off in another town for most of toDay, assisting (or just watching...) a theatre production my brother's in. Unless we get snowed in (and it's not an impossibility) I'll be back within the last three hours of the day, to see who the village has decided to lynch, and to throw my vote in, if it's needed.

In the meantime, adieu!

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 11:53 AM

Yes I can come in for the end of voting, I mean. As long as voting does actually end at 8.30am, that is, and not too much earlier.
I can get online at about 8am GMT and stay until voting closes.

As for who to lynch with Form, I don't know. What do you think of my reasoning about Naria earlier? Do you have time to do a vote analysis on the four suspects?

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 12:06 PM

First off, glancing back through Day 3, I found this:

Kath, I hate to say it- well, actually, I don't hate to say it, since I'm on your case anyway- but that vote of yours really looks like a Werewolf trying to save their neck rather than the reasoned vote for a Seer-confirmed candidate that you make it out to be.

Take from that what you will. I think we've decided he's gone toDay anyway.

Quick analysis. Looking back over the voting analysis I did yesterDay, I am again rethinking who we should lynch. I'll do up to Day 4, can't really count since it was pretty much organized after a certain point. Prior to that, voting was like this:

Who. . . . Day 1. . .Day 2. . . Day 3. . . Day 4

Caran.. . . Ang. . . Lhuna. . . Lhuna. . . None

Naria. . . . Guy. . . Eonwe. . . Kath. . . . None

Form . . . . Guy. . . Kath. . . . .Kath. . . . Naria

Thin. . . . Glirdan . Naria. . . . Kath. . . . Guy

Okay, Naria voted Kath to tie her with Lhuna. I'm gonna say that she's not a wolf, at least that's what I'll say for now.

Form, well, we already decided he's one for toDay.

Thin we've decided is not going toDay.

Which leaves Caran. Caran's Day 3 vote for Lhuna put the widest gap between them the two wolves. Looks suspiciously like a wolf trying to look good by voting for the lover-wolf and trying to save another at the same time. And you could say second Day vote was a ploy to look good, too.

Okay, Lalaith, I'll go with Caran and Formendacil. Do you want to pick voter's, or do I get that honor. :rolleyes:

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 12:17 PM

Oh, the honour is yours, sir.

Caranlondien

03-25-2006, 12:22 PM

I hope Formendacil is the other werewolf. I'll get an exciting death scene :D

Once you guys come up with the vote list, I'll cast my vote (so you don't have one more "unknown" voter to worry about).

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 12:25 PM

Okay, I'm gonna walk myself through this. I like to talk out loud as I think.

Voters:
Naria
Formendacil
Thinlomien
Caranlondien
Gurthang
Lalaith

Cailin is not voting.

So, we need to see votes go like this:

Voter - - - - - votes for
Formendacil --> Caran
Caranlondien --> Form
Thinlomien --> Caran
Naria --> Form

Those should go first. Lalaith and I will vote after the above have gone.

Caranlondien

03-25-2006, 12:28 PM

As per Gurthang's request:

++ Formendacil

Good luck, my fellow villagers! May we lynch a werewolf!

Naria

03-25-2006, 12:51 PM

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 12:57 PM

I will do my part:

++Formendacil

One question, I'm assuming that Form is not going to 'go along' with this voting pattern, will it not effect the double lynch if he doesn't vote for Caran? Will either Gurthang or Lalaith have to withhold there vote to ensure the double lynch? I guess that was two questions :D

Yes. If everyone votes as they should except for Formendacil, then the votes will read Caran: 1, Form: 2. If Form does not show, then I will vote for Caran, creating a tie, and Lalaith will hold her vote until Formendacil shows up and votes.

If he doesn't come, then Lalaith doesn't vote and it stays a tie. If he votes, then Lalaith will also and it's still a tie.

If something should go terribly wrong and he manages to screw things up, then there will easily be enough people left tomorrow to lynch him.

Naria

03-25-2006, 01:02 PM

Sounds good, Gurthang!

I hope you and Lalaith have enough coffee for this vigil :)

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 01:11 PM

well, I'm GMT so I won't need coffee, I'll be going to bed and getting up again...I can't believe I'm dragging myself out of bed on a Sunday morning before eight o'clock, the things I do for werewolf... :rolleyes: :)

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 01:38 PM

Thinlomien should be coming soon to vote for Caran. When she does, I think I'll go ahead and vote for her too to tie it up.

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 02:33 PM

I'm going to be off in another town for most of toDay, assisting (or just watching...) a theatre production my brother's in. Unless we get snowed in (and it's not an impossibility) I'll be back within the last three hours of the day, to see who the village has decided to lynch, and to throw my vote in, if it's needed.

I must have skipped over this earlier. So much for getting things done early. :rolleyes:

I also just realized that Thin has not posted since LMP's Seer declaration. I don't know if that means anything, but it makes me a little uneasy. I hope she votes soon.

Lalaith

03-25-2006, 03:36 PM

I'm off now, I'll be back in the morning. I just hope close of voting time isn't unusually early or late.

Nogrod

03-25-2006, 06:03 PM

Sorry to interrupt your game, but as some people seem to be wondering about Lommy's absence, I took the liberty of sending this note to this thread also (I already posted it to the TiG-thread earlier).

Lommy would like all of you to know, that her absence today is due to her problems with net-access.

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 09:45 PM

Well, that was unexpected. I'm gone from the game for, like, four hours and come back to find only one post. And not even from a player to boot! Thanks for the heads up, Nogrod.

Well, if Thin isn't able to vote, then we might have to change our gameplan a little. I'm going to wait until Formendacil gets here and then see what we need to do.

Naria

03-25-2006, 11:26 PM

Well, this isn't very good now is it....hmmm. So Gurthang what should we do, or what are you and Lalaith going to do, since me and Caran have already voted.

If you would like my opinion, I think that you and Lalaith should both vote for Form just in case Thin isn't able to get online. If Form is an ordo :rolleyes: ,which I doubt, we can try for a double lynch tomorrow.

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 11:34 PM

Since it looks like Lommy isn't going to be able to get on, here's how it will probably have to work.

Lalaith and I will both vote for Caran. We will do this with the stipulation that Form will not vote. I will make sure to give him plenty of warning, so that if he does vote, he will be lynched tomorrow by himself. No excuses, no accidents. If he breaks the tie, he's the wolf.

I'm still going to wait to do that for awhile. He said he wasn't going to be here until, well about now actually. He said three hours before the deadline, so he's probably around, whether he's going to post or not.

Lalaith, when you get here, post and tell me. I want to make sure that we're all on the same page before we get to the voting.

Caranlondien

03-25-2006, 11:35 PM

Oh dear.

The problem is, if Form were an ordo and only he were killed toDay, then tonight the wolf would kill one of the known innocents, leaving 2 known innocents and 3 unknowns. Even double lynching then, there's the chance that the last wolf still wouldn't be lynched, and would win the next day.

On the other hand, Form is looking pretty darn wolvish right now.

I don't really have a plan to recommend, but I just wanted to point out that if we don't double-lynch toDay, we're no longer guaranteed to win.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Gurthang

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 11:37 PM

...he will be lynched tomorrow by himself.

Sorry, just realized that this doesn't make much sense.

What I mean is that, tomorrow, he will be lynched and him only. There won't be any double lynch tomorrow if he gets on and breaks the tie toDay.

Caranlondien

03-25-2006, 11:37 PM

Good plan, Gurthang! It hadn't occurred to me that even if Formendawolf weren't killed today, his breaking the tie would incriminate him. :rolleyes: I think I need some sleep...

Gurthang

03-25-2006, 11:47 PM

Point of information:

If the double lynch falls through toDay, and Caran is innocent.

AND

If we lynch Form tomorrow in a single lynch and he is somehow innocent. (unlikely)

Then this would leave us on the last Day with 3 people: 1 known innocent and 2 unknowns. The two unknowns should vote for each other and the known should not vote, resulting in a double lynch of the two unknowns.

One of the unknowns will (obviously) be a wolf. That one will, inevitably, receive one vote from the unknown innocent. He can then either vote for the unknown or vote for the known innocent. If he votes for the other unknown, then we have the double lynch we want. If he votes for the known innocent, then the known innocent can simply vote for the wolf and he will have two votes.

So, basically, the village will still be assured a victory. If we end up with just a single lynchee toDay, just do a single lynch tomorrow, and we'll still have a villager win in the bag.

Lalaith

03-26-2006, 01:17 AM

I'm here, Gurth. Good morning. *yawns*

Lalaith

03-26-2006, 01:18 AM

Oh, and the clocks *have* gone forward, on my board at least.

Gurthang

03-26-2006, 01:22 AM

Well, do you mind if I go ahead and vote for Caran? I think you should wait for a little to see if Formendacil wants to show up. If he doesn't, then go ahead and vote for her also. Make sure you make a couple of posts awhile before you do, just so there's no cross-posting or anything that he could use to say it was an accident.

Lalaith

03-26-2006, 01:25 AM

No please do, hope you're not too tired. goodnight!

Gurthang

03-26-2006, 01:32 AM

Thank you, Lalaith. :D

++Caranlondien

Formendacil: If Lalaith votes for Caran, you should not! If you do, you will be lynched tomorrow.

And lastly, don't forget what I said earlier: even if something goes wrong, we should still have an assured victory as a village.

Goodnight. I hope this double gets the wolf.

Formendacil

03-26-2006, 01:38 AM

So I'm definitely a Wolf am I?

DEFINITELY LUPINE, AM I???

Now where in the name of Morgoth in Angband have the blithering lot of you come up with a crackpot theory like that? It seems to me like the sort of theory that a mongoose would come up with when drunk with a llama off a bottle of tequila!

You idiots!

I spit in your faces!!!

Have you NO recollection of how I have voted this ENTIRE game??? Are the suspicions I have cast on Kath and SamwiseGamgee gone completely to waste? Have you numbskulls forgotten that I voted for Kath TWICE, the second time of which I got her double-lynched with Lhuna- who I didn't even know was the Lover? Have you forgotten completely that I cruelly and callously allowed and voted for BOTH my non-Lover Werewolf fellows, defending them hardly at all. Have you totally forgotten that LMP HIMSELF took my agreement with him as a good sign yesterday??? I have been on the intelligent people's "Most Likely Innocent" list all game!

And you call me Lupine!

YOU. DARE. TO. CALL. ME. LUPINE!!!!

I am insulted. Nay, I am wounded to the core!!!

That's it! I'm leaving. If I can't play this game with all the cunning in my being and not hope to win, then I'm done! I'm through! No more Werewolf!!!! I'll go and play Middle-Earth Idol (when I cannot abide the original) with a passion -naked- before I'll come back here!!!

You fools! You imbeciles!!!

You lynch me on no more than "he's been acting strange" and "my gut feels wrong" when I've got the cleanest record in the village!!!

Well, let's keep that record going!

I want to vote for EVERY WEREWOLF commited to the cause- I, who led them to kill Spawn, and who single-handedly devoured the evil LMP!!

++ Formendacil

Alea iacta est!

(What??? I've lost. It's clear. I just want to vent a little latent rage. You guys didn't even let me survive to tomorrow and try and mess things up last minute! And tonight I have to go to bed... Besides, this being Nilp's game, I think a double-lynch a very impressive way to end things.

Oh, and raging is fun.

I still spit on your graves. Double-lynching spoilsports. Innocent or guilty, I'm never playing in a double-lynching game again! :p )

Lalaith

03-26-2006, 01:43 AM

Well, there can be no double-lynch now Form. Even if we wanted to do one. At least your death will be the way you like it, a solitary lynch...
Lovely rant, btw. :)

Caranlondien

03-26-2006, 01:48 AM

And I had so stoically resigned myself to a glorious self-sacrificing death.

Ah, but now I can say I survived to the end :D

Lalaith

03-26-2006, 01:55 AM

Oh, just one thing. On the intelligent people's most Likely Innocent List, were you? I had you top of my suspect list the day after the double-lynch.

For that insult, it is only fitting that I deal you the final blow.

++FORMENDACIL

Shame Lommy and Cailin had to miss the fun...

Naria

03-26-2006, 01:56 AM

Ah, but now I can say I survived to the end

As with me. I am quite surprised to have made it all the way to the end being an ordo....Way to go villagers!! :D

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-26-2006, 03:29 AM

Somewhere in Valinor, two white-robed persons were watching television. On the fluorescent screen were written the words: BD Big Prophet: Big Prophet is Watching.

'Change the channel,' said the white-robed woman.

'Wait. The show's not over yet,' replied the white-robed man.

The woman took the remote control from him. He gazed at her with a look of infinite sadness.

There was silence for a few minutes. After that, the woman reluctantly turned the TV on.

'Oh, wait,' said the man, 'they're done. I've to go.' As he walked to the door, he stopped, turned back to her, and asked, 'Do you want to come with me?'

She gazed at her with a look of infinite annoyance. He shrugged.

'Never mind.'

And then he walked out of the door.

Nilpaurion Felagund

03-26-2006, 04:00 AM

Formendacil had transformed before the eyes of the village. The dashing, handsome unemployed man had become an agile, hideous unemployed Werewolf. The villagers did not dare face the monster, even though they had him outnumbered. He managed to avoid Gurthang's arrows, and when Caranlondien tried to make her chainsaw connect with Weredacil's neck, he wrested the machine from her hands and smashed it on the ground. It seems that the village was doomed to be destroyed by this monster.

Suddenly a brilliance illumed the dusk of Ened-in-Nowhere. Formendawolf had seen it before, when they had attacked dancing spawn of ungoliant. He shied from the light as, once again, a figure robed in dazzling white came out of the glow. In his hand was, once again, a flaming brand.

'What are you doing here?' asked Weredacil.

'Well,' said the white-robed man, 'I'm here to end the game.'

'You can't end it now! I have a village to ravage!'

'Wait. It says here in my footage of the voting, you've got three votes. You're the lynchee.'

'Why, I . . .' said the Werewolf, then he stopped talking and charged at the white-robed man. The white-robed man overpowered him, bound him, and threw him to a turtle cage. But he forgot to lock it, so after a thousand seconds Formendawolf escaped again, and attempted to strike at the white-robed man's back. However, some of the villagers were prepared; Thinlómien threw a particularly hard mushroom and Lalaith a bag of coins at the Werewolf's head. He fell down, stunned. Caranlondien took her axe and came over to Formendacil.

'For my chainsaw,' she whispered as she chopped the last Werewolf's head.

The scroll of the census was changed, for the last time:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.
Celuien, an Ordinary Villager, was 'Freud' alive on the fifth NIGHT.
Valier, an Ordinary Villager, was eaten by SamwolfGamgee on the fifth DAY.
SamwiseGamgee, a Werewolf, was shot by Gurthang on the fifth DAY.
tar-ancalime, an Ordinary Villager, went to the future on the sixth NIGHT.
littlemanpoet, a Seer, was crushed by a boulder on the sixth NIGHT.
Formendacil, an Werewolf, was had his head chopped off on the sixth DAY.

Those left alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
Cailín, the town gossip
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Gurthang, an arrowsmith

'In case you haven't noticed,' said the white-robed man (who was, to the village's surprise, the Prophet), 'Villagers won.'