WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Nogrod]

Well. This seems like my testament now... :(

I have to go to sleep, as it is coming 1 AM (my time here - and I truly remember the last day here).

I don't think I have been as helpful as I could have been, but anyways.

Just a few thoughts - not so much basing now on any "deep analysis", but overall appearances of things.

Glirdan is so quiet! He told, he would be off a lot, but this is just a little too much (no posts today, am I right?).

Sleepy seems to be in his not-whole-heartedly-in -kind of gamer attitude right now. Just stir him up, with whatever ways you come up with (bold accusations, or whatever), and he might be of great help - if innocent.

Elu I kind of hope, doesn't turn out today. It would be best to us all. In this, I'm inclined to think the same as Roa: one either plays or then not. A totally silent villager is just an asset to the ducks, and shifting the balance - and being a bad sport.

Lote, even though a newbie to whom I would give all the benefit of doubt, should start to speak for herself. Really, Lote! C'mon! We won't bite (just some of us might kill you the next day, but anyhow, that's what this game is all about - try it!)

Mith & Spm I'm quite convinced to be the one's they have been declared to be - at least Mith's revealment of my innocence was right... :) And if there is a foolery of a grand-kind, it will be revealed soon enough (there would at least one person in the village, that would be knowledgeable of that).

Kath & Cailin I do not know... They have both played under my radar, and thence could be dangerous (my hunches are always bad)

Lalaith goes to the same category, but is here separate from them, as I have taken some closer look on her. Very careful - almost too careful...

Spawn & Ang are riddles to me, for the time being. They have been intelligent and in all the senses, very helpful (although Spawn's analysis on Mith was probably a bit misguided - but then again, being a gifted and being a wolf/duck have some common elements - you are much more scared of your own life than as being an ordo).

This list leaves me with Morm, Valier, Roa and Jenny... (I'll just need a cigarette, before going into these people - and Roa: I know it's bad for my health, I truly know!)

EDIT: X-posted with Glirdy...

[Nogrod]

Glirdy!

I hope you really have something to say about this! It would change the situation, but think what you say. Someway, getting more people to be killed for the ducks would just nicely confuse them - and add to the possibilities of the nightingale, but just revealing stuff is not always intelligent... - or if revealing, you would need really to have something to say. Think about it!

PS: And you ducks: make of this what you will... This doesn't seem to help your choice of the victim for the next night (So far, well played Glirdy!) - and if we add, that Spm could be on your list too - then I think you have food for thought enough... :smokin:

[Sleepy Ranger]

I must express a concern of mine which has arisen: Mith proclaiming that she is the Owl. I, however, do not believe this. I believe that she is probably a Duck or the Goose. I have my reasoning which I shall get to later, yet this will put me in a lot of danger. I shall return with my reasoning shortly.

Quite possible. If a duck is faking as the owl then the only person who would know is the actual owl. I seriously doubt the duck would call any of its accomplices innocent but who knows? Most possibly they're hoping that they can draw the real owl out this way or that they get the real owl toNight. Though this is a very risky move to be taken at such a stage and mind you, I doubt they are in any way desperate.

However, maybe Mith is a crazy ordo? If she calls a duck innocent they wouldn't care and yet if she calls an innocent innocent what would they do but trust her? Same applies if Mith is the goose. I'm certain toNight's kill and (possibly) toDay's lynching will clear a bit up for us.

[Nogrod]

I must agree with Sleepy. This is interesting news indeed... (I thought it over once again, and had to admit, my earlier reasoning / plotting was not enough)

And anyhow: Mith was in no real danger of lynching as she came forwards as an owl... there were just suspicions (and those she backed herself with: the two known innocents, eg. Spm and me, would have been known to her, if she'd be a duck!)

But still we should also see Glirdy's points now. It would be too easy, if Glirdy and Mith would be the ducks (not impossible though). Let's hear, what he has to say... and think of the scenarios opening up from these "revealments"...

[mormegil]

Anguirel, I got Idleman from Mith's list and it's a man of leisure. I took from that to mean a man of wealth who doesn't work...just a quick lesson for you.

Mith I knew you weren't a Duck and I can see your need in coming out...knowing you as I do :) . Now if I survive the day, it seems unlikely, I implore you to trust me and not dream of me. It will avail you little. I am neither the goose nor a duck. I am a busy man trying to read an inordinate amount of posts and stay caught up all the while maintain my job.

SpM, while not a duck, still may be the goose and I will listen to what he says only with the utmost scepticism.

Anguirel--I just don't know about him. He could be the goose but might be a rather bold duck. Of course it's rather likely that he's an innocent that thinks too highly of himself and his theories.

My head is trying to process everything that has happened today so my suspicion list is not up to date but Jenny and Roa come to the top of it.

I would suggest that Mith either dream of Ang or Roa.

Again Mith, trust me, there is no need to waste your dream on me. Though as the current environment is anti-morm you may not even have the choice of dreaming of me. If I do die I'm not sure you should go after Ang or not. It would need to be decided if he would be bold enough to be so loud.

Regarding SpM, his elaborate scheme of the Hawk coming forward sounds pretty good on the surface and made some sense but I could see some subtleties that could be exploited by the Ducks. Hence, I still think he could be the goose. Too many gifteds would be revealed and sadly if the Hawk is known smart ducks can pick up on the nightingale. To spell out more clearly, being they know each other well enough generally once one is known it can be reverse traced to the partner because of how the two interacted. I believe a goose SpM would give credit to those ducks and help them this way. Also killing the Hawk early is always an advantage to the ducks. I don't like it. But I realize I'm not goose hunting but I feel the need to point this out.

[Glirdan]

Nogrod... I have thought of this from a few different scenarios, none of them turn out bright for me to say the least, but if I am to contribute someway to this village. I must do it. This might be the only way... I really don't know if I should though...but, why not? All of you may have guessed by now anyway.

I am the Owl, not Mith. I know that everything is counting against me right now, but what have I to loose by saying this? I sacrifice myself for the good of the village and (hopefully) end this nightmare early. This is why:

Mith is NOT the Owl. As I said, she's either the Duck or the Goose. If I can be assured that I have another Night of protection, I will dream of Mith toNight and see what I can see and confrim tomorrow.

My dreams you ask? Well, I didn't voice suspicion for spawn randomly yesterDay. She was my first dream and was proven to be a Duck. My dream last Night was in fact for SpM and he was proven to be innocent? Why? Because when I saw there race, I had to make sure that my suspicions of him and spawn being in league were true or not. More proof that spawn is the second Duck? Did Nilp and her name each other or voice any suspcions in any of their posts? Not that I'm aware of. Odd, isn't it?

As I said Nogrod, I looked at (pretty much) all the different outcomes of my actions:

1) You lynch me toDay and find out that I am in fact the Seer. You lynch spawn and she's proven the Duck. You then lynch Mith and she's provent to be the final Duck. Village win.

2) Same scenario with the exception that Mith is proven innocent or the Goose. There's still one Duck left.

3) You lynch spawn toDay, she's proven guilty. I dream of Mith toNight and (hopefully) shown that she's the final Duck. We lynch her tomorrow. Village win.

4) Same scenario with the exception that Mith is show to me as innocent or the Goose. Dream (not wholly) wasted. I dream a useless dream and get attacked the next Night. Still one Duck left.

Those are the scenarios I came up with, and, as you see, two of them lead to probable victory, two of them lead to possible victory. Three of them I get lynched, one of them I live. So, for all of those out there who don't believe me and still think I'm a Duck, if there's three scenarios that lead to my doom, why would I try and come out and say that I'm the Owl?

That's all I can do for now. You either believe me or you don't. It's your choice. As for me, this is what I say:

++spawn

I'll linger around for awhile and will try and answer any questions. If anybody can think of scenarios that I missed, I'd be happy to hear them.

[Valier]

Well holy cow!!!! Ok so Spawny is a duck eh? and Mith the second or the Goose! Bold I say! Bold indeed!!!!

[Kath]

Oh no. Now who do we believe! I thought Mith was telling the truth before, her defensiveness before tallied and everything.

Great. Now I have to go think about it all over again.

[mormegil]

++Spawn

The reason being is basically what Glirdan stated. If Spawn is innocent Glirdan is not. If she is guilty then Glirdan most likely is. Now the only reason Glirdan would do this is because he's the goose. There's no chance for the goose to know that Spawn is gifted and it's not likely.

Whoever is the true owl I suggest that you not dream of the other as it would be a waste of a dream.

[Glirdan]

Why do you think I was hesitant for revealing myself Valier? I know that there will probably be a lot of people who won't believe me. But what can I do? There's nothing else I can do to prove myself. I really wish there was, but, I can't think of anything else.

[Nogrod]

Blasted! I'm too tired to think clearly, now as I would need to (1.30 AM here)! Just a moment! We shall see the scenarios... But from the hunch, we should be having a duck at least tomorrow... for either Glirdy or Mith lies. NOw Glirdy had no actual reason to come up with his pronounciation, but the good of the village - but Mith had not even that - only some suspicions from Spm. etc.

At the moment, I'm inclined to believe Glirdy more than Mith. But this has to be thought of...

EDIT: X-posted with the last two

[Valier]

I never said I didn't believe you Glirdan, I just stated it is a bold play. Mith you devil, you!!:mad: and Spawn I was more than likely going to vote for anyways.But if you are lying Glirdan, I'll never talk to you again!!:p (I swear this is a threat!):rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

I must add, that Glirdy's play would be a perfect goose-play - trying to lift the protection of the nightingale to ensure the duck-kill of the real Owl!

[Kath]

Oh I am too tired to deal with this! I'm sorry!

++MORMEGIL

I'm going with Mith. Right now I trust her. And yes it really is mostly because she 'came out' first. I'm hoping she is the Owl, she dreams of Roa and we find out her identity tomorrow.

I also hope Glirdan is the Goose.

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry, just I never realised how stressing being the Owl could be!! I'm also stressed out for other reasons, but let's not get into that...

Nogrod, another reason why I'm coming out with this (other then the sake of the village [which is higher on my priority list right now]) is that I'd like to live to see this horror end. In other words, I want to be here at the end and still manage to pass my time amongst all of you (well, except for spawn and the final Duck and Goose) amiable villagers.

[Nogrod]

Just a gut stuff: Valier was bold enough to vote Nilp to death (as she had done before), and Glirdy made the goose move here - achieving Valier's immeadiate approval? Could it be that easy either?

Why I have to go to sleep as things start to get more than interesting...?

EDIT: X-posted with Glirdy

[mormegil]

*sigh* If we kill Spawn the Nightingale will know whom to protect tonight!

[Nogrod]

I'm just trying to count people gathering to either of the sides... They all can't be ducks...

[Glirdan]

I'm going with Mith. Right now I trust her. And yes it really is mostly because she 'came out' first. I'm hoping she is the Owl, she dreams of Roa and we find out her identity tomorrow.

Kath, why on earth would Mith want to come out so early on? I, on the other hand, have been pushed with into this. Think this through first.

Just a gut stuff: Valier was bold enough to vote Nilp to death (as she had done before), and Glirdy made the goose move here - achieving Valier's immeadiate approval? Could it be that easy either?

Unfortunately, I have nothing to disprove this idea. If I were to look at it from your point of view Nogrod (I have a strong feeling that you and morm are probably innocent), I could see how this were to work as well. But like I said, I don't have anything to disprove this theory.

[Valier]

Just a gut stuff: Valier was bold enough to vote Nilp to death (as she had done before), and Glirdy made the goose move here - achieving Valier's immeadiate approval? Could it be that easy either?




Nonsense! We shall all see who is telling the truth tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

*sigh* If we kill Spawn the Nightingale will know whom to protect tonight!

Well that depends on the outcome of it... and even with a certain outcome, I'm not sure, we can make it so easily. We should look at Spawn's doings first - and then the nightingale would really have to think about her/his choice.

And I'm just too tired to start to calculate the different possibilities now. Glirdy's argumets seem sound enough, but a good goose would make just those...

[Nogrod]

First of all:

= Valier
Nonsense! We shall all see who is telling the truth tomorrow
No we will not. We shall be knowing something, but not the Truth! Aren't you a bit hasty now?

= Nogrod
Just a gut stuff: Valier was bold enough to vote Nilp to death (as she had done before), and Glirdy made the goose move here - achieving Valier's immeadiate approval? Could it be that easy either?

= Glirdan
Unfortunately, I have nothing to disprove this idea. If I were to look at it from your point of view Nogrod (I have a strong feeling that you and morm are probably innocent), I could see how this were to work as well. But like I said, I don't have anything to disprove this theory.

This is either a most clever beastie-tactics I've ever seen, or then genuine. And I'm inclined to the latter... But if this interpretation of mine holds true, why was Valier so jumpy to disregard my hunch - with such bad reasons? (ok., it might also be my bad reasoning, as I can't right now see, how this thing could be settled by tomorrow...)

[Glirdan]

It could be settled tomorrow if you choose to lynch spawn. Could! Doesn't mean it will be though.

[Lalaith]

Oh lord. Thanks a lot, guys. I come in from a night out, late, tired, ready to make my vote for Roa which I'd sorted out in my head earlier today anyway, and I find all hell's broken loose.

And nobody's even had the time to count up the votes so far. Suppose I'll have to do it. *tchk*

[Diamond18]

Lalaith: consider this a friendly service rendered by your mod. ;)

Morm 4 (Spawn, Ang, Cailin, Kath)

Roa 2 (Mith, Lote)

Spawn 2 (Glirdan, Morm)

Kath 1 (Sleepy)

[Glirdan]

Well, I have to leave. I will (hopefully) be back on later.

[Nogrod]

Well. if we kill Spawn tonight - we'll see Glirdy's truth in an instance, as he said she is a duck... and our ranger would have time to set the guard on him over the night after that had been revealed. And if it's not right, we kill him tomorrow.

That is plain to me.

But if he is a goose? Then he steals our real Owl the protection - and Mith is dead tomorrow. How should we then come to his case? Anyhow, he has lied, and is either a goose or a duck - and thence we should kill him...

At the moment - very hastily thought of - I can see no reason, why not to trust him here. Please help me quick with faults in my thinking, as I have to vote in a minute...

[Lalaith]

Diamond, you are truly eponymous. *mwah*

I'm sorry, its past midnight, I've had an evening out, I can't take all this chaos in and analyse it properly. But I'm more inclined to trust Mith than Glirdan. I was going to vote for Roa anyway and that's what Mith voted, so here goes

++Roa-Aoife

[Roa_Aoife]

OKay, I'm back, and there are a few things I'd like to clarify.

Firstly, I have made two posts today. TWO. This is my third. How, with two posts could I create mass confusion about Nilp? Secondly, my first post was only partly a rant about Nilp. In part it was answering the accusations by Mith, and in part it was a request to see more from Glirdan. Then Ang answered my comments about Nilp, and seemed to be under the impression that I was trying to insult Nilp's intelligence- which I had to correct. I would never EVER insult a fellow player's intelligence, unlike some people here, who like to throw the word "stupid" around. That's all that it was, and nothing more.

So either Mith or Glirdan is the OWL, and the other is a goose or a Duck. Why do I always suspect the seer as an innocent, but can't for the life of me figure out who they are as a wolf?

Last, I want to apologize to everyone in the game. Some of you have remarked that I haven't been myself, and you're right. I have some deep issues going on right now, and while I can normally keep them from affecting me, I am unable to this game. So, I respectfully request the Diamond remove me from the game tonight along with the lynch. I can't give the game the effort it deserves, and so I will remove myself now.

I will not suicide vote- I detest suicide voting above all other tactics in this game.

I say we lynch Spawn. If she is innocent, then we know Glirdan was lying. If she is guilty, then we will have at least caught a duck.


++Spawn

EDIT: Tired, broken, and crossposted

[Nogrod]

Thanks Diamond for the update - I was going to it next... saved my work. :)

I see no downside to us in going after Glirdan's revealment. It might be, that Spawn is innocent, but that's what we have to be ready for - to exchange a villager to a duck. Spawn's death would settle this all (sorry Spawn - I thought I was already dead an hour ago - and thought it good for the village - only a duck, or a gifted, would feel otherwise) . If Spawn is innocent, then Glirdy lies, and that's clear... And if Spawn is an innocent, then Mith lies, and will be a dead duck / goose.

I admire Spawn's skills in analyzing the posts, but not this much - I think we others can make the job too. And anyhow - if she turns out innocent, she has possibly given us the third duck already...

EDIT: X-posted with Roa...

[Nogrod]

Diamond's list updated...

.. after this

++ Spawn


Morm 4 (Spawn, Ang, Cailin, Kath)

Roa 3 (Mith, Lote. Lalaith)

Spawn 4 (Glirdan, Morm, Roa, Nogrod)

Kath 1 (Sleepy)

With this, Morm is going to be lynched. I believe, we should check out this Spawn-option now. That would reveal us one liar, and not be a random-vote against someone, we just feel to be guilty... It might not be a duck - but a goose at least (and I'm not meaning Spawn, but Mith or Glirdan here).

[Lalaith]

*steps outside game briefly*

Roa, I'm sorry you feel bad. I hope you did well in your History final today. Don't leave the game if you don't get lynched. :)

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm sorry Lalaith. But what's going on is going to be affectong my play, and that's not fair to the other players, Villagers or Ducks. And I would be the world's biggest hypocrit if I stayed knowing I couldn't give it my best. Good luck to everyone.

[mormegil]

Roa, for what it's worth I think you should stay especially if you are innocent. If you can dedicate any amount of time to this it would be worth it for us to keep you.

I hope things work out for you.

[Lote22]

Even thought I've voted already I would like to say that I believe Glirdan. I had a bad feeling about Mith in the first place so I'm not surprised that she was lying.

[Nogrod]

I agree with Morm.

We have our mutual history of suspicion, but I really think you should go forwards - even if providing little or any help to us. If you are in the middle of a RL- crises, I understand, this sounds superficial. But really Roa! Believe me this once, when I say I would really miss you.

And if you are pulling our leg with this, I will be haunting you forever after this one - but I just couldn't believe that from you. You are a too good sport to pull these things out. So take care of yourself - and courage! That's what we need in life... more of it outside the BD, of course. :confused:

Fight for the good - as you do here, when you are not a wolf! I know you can do it!

[Valier]

So all that's left to vote is myself, JennyHallu and Elu. Should I wait to vote in case they come on and vote for someone other than Spawn?

[Nogrod]

So all that's left to vote is myself, JennyHallu and Elu. Should I wait to vote in case they come on and vote for someone other than Spawn?

I don't know about those who have not voted, but if this "current theory" has any hold, lynching Spawn would either get us a duck (+ one known Owl), or then an innocent kill (+one sure lynch tomorrow: either a goose or then a duck + a believably true Owl)

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I've been PMing with Diamond, and at her request, I'm going to wait till the end of Night 3 to decide if I'm staying in or not.

Valier, if you think we should lynch Spawn, then vote Spawn. If you don't think we should lynch Spawn, then don't vote for Spawn. The other votes don't matter.

I've though of something else- it's possible that Glirdan is telling the truth about Spawn, but is the final Duck himself. This is highly unlikely, as a stunt like this requires not only boldness, but recklessness. He would afterall, continue to live, and he could merely keep giving you innocents until the final day. However, his continued survival would bring up a lot of questions, and he would be the only Duck. In a village of this size, that's not a happy place to be.

So, this may be unlikely, but it's a possibility that we can't ignore.

EDIT: Cross posted. Nogrod, go to bed already. You're as much of an insomniac as I am.

[Nogrod]

With this evidence, I would go for Spawn (as it is even, and Morm has generated four votes first). There is the possibility, that other of the still non-voters is a duck, and tries to save her/his fellow by the margin of who got first the fifth vote... That would be higly suspisious, though, but still. I'm not trusting these people who just drop by to give their vote to have actually read all the stuff- so their votes might be quite random... and ill-adviced by that - or then purely malvolent.

[Nogrod]

EDIT: Cross posted. Nogrod, go to bed already. You're as much of an insomniac as I am.

Seem to be... And really. Hang on! I'm turning to sleep any minute now- the decent bedtime is over by hours (as it is coming 3am here...) Happily I just have to go to work at 11 tomorrow...

If we get Spawn as a duck: great!

If she is innocent,
then we have Glirdan (duck/goose) - and have lost either me or Spm, but will have one more dream to go tomorrow! It's all looking good! Seems like we are having another duck in one day-night -shift!

Good night! I'll sleep lightly, and try to be aware of those beasts, maybe I can come up with one of them?

[Valier]

Glirdan you better not be lying!!

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Jenny and Elu if you do make it on please vote for Spawn so we can see if Glirdan be truthful.Oh and I guess if Elu does not vote he's out...am I right in saying that he did not vote yesterday...

[JennyHallu]

5 pages, guys? Was that really necessary?

Sorry to arrive so late: Got home from work and hubby needed to go shopping and my car needed fixed and all sorts of things happened which kept me away from my computer before reading 5 pages of WD.

I apologize to all those people who've been pumping my ego with all this talk of how much you expect of me. I've been harried and rushed so far this week, and I'm used to much more internet time with which to formulate my thoughts. I'm a quick learner, but a slow thinker.

One comment: I am definitely impressed with the quantity of the posts in this game, but hardly at all with the quality. Really, folks, a lot of the discussions I just read were petty ad-hominem attacks, and we know better. Grow up already.

Nogrod, I haven't been rude to you because you haven't annoyed me. Simple as that. I'd make you feel more at home by arguing away, but I really don't see that there's a point. Besides, Roa's been doing such a good job for me.

Valier, you didn't need to tell me. I definitely trust Glirdy before Mith. He is so much calmer and more sensible, and I have felt Mith to be more than a little off since the beginning of the game. Just because I firmly thought fanged Mith innocent in my first game, doesn't mean my instincts haven't improved. If they hadn't, Cailin and SPM wouldn't be so disappointed in my harried posts so far. Honestly, Mith as Goose explains much of the squabbling and bickering that has so frustrated me reading through today's post...she's really been at the thick of everything, baiting whomever she can into taking offense.

SO: To get it over with:

++Dancing Duck of Ungoliant (Uh-oh...Now my brain has called up the song "Disco Duck". She's got to be evil if she's got that stuck in my head.)

Now: As to other suspicions:

Obviously, I think Mith is the Goose.

I am sincerely worried about Mormegil's innocence. Especially since Mith's crazed "revelation", Morm's extensive talk about Goose/Owl masquerades really looks like instructions.

Roa has also seemed so bold as to be potentially Duckish, but hearing about her RL hassles this week (especially in the midst of my own) I am formally taking her off my suspect list. I doubt even a harried duck would withdraw from the team: he or she would have too great a responsibility to his/her fellows.

SPM has tended to confuse me so far. His fabled verbosity feels like an excellent way to evade suspicion...it would be horribly difficult just to search for clues!

I may or may not be on later. Hopefully I'll able to be more active this weekend, and I intend to put a lot more work and thought into this village. Knowing whom to ignore (Mith) should help keep it a bit more civilized. Honestly, this hurt to read.

[JennyHallu]

Oh, and if I seem rather testy (just reread and I thought I sounded testy) I haven't had dinner, and my husband has been on the phone for the last hour so I can't ask him what he wants to do for dinner, and it's...9 PM. On a Thursday. GAH!

[Glirdan]

I think, if I'm not mistaken, we still have Elu and SpM to vote, right?

What I need to know from everyone is whom to dream of. Should I dream of Mith and make it a wasted dream as morm says? Or should I look at someone else? I need suggestions.

[The Saucepan Man]

Zounds! I thought things were exciting when I was last here. It’s ten times more so now. :eek: Still, I have two Owls declaring me innocent, which can’t be a bad thing! :D

But I am totally confused. It has taken me an age to catch up and now it is very late in my personal village time zone. I have a busy day's Scarecrowing tomorrow, so I really oughtn’t tarry long.

Mith’s Owl claim seemed entirely credible to me when she made it, as she was under a fair bit of suspicion, not least from me, and her lynching was looking a distinct possibilty. Because Owlish behaviour can often look very much like Duckish behaviour, her claim made a lot of sense of my earlier suspicions of her. And the hints were there (though I did not spot them) in the run up to her declaration. Added to that the fact that she declared Nogrod and me to be innocent (I know that I am and I suspect Nogrod to be), her claim was (and still is) looking entirely believable to me.

Glirdan’s claim looks a lot less credible to me. If he’s a Duck, it was senseless for him to make his Owl claim when he did, since it would mean that his death would follow swiftly (in the next Day or so), leaving only one Duck against a well-populated village. The Owl had been identified, so there was little sense in a Duck declaring. However, it was a good tactic for a Goose, which is what I now suspect Glirdan to be.

Which means that spawn is probably innocent, yet is now going to die. Problem is, if Glirdan is the Goose, then, even after we lynch him, we will still have two Ducks to catch with very little to go on (unless an Owlish Mith survives tonight and delivers us a Duck tomorrow).

My vote will make no difference to today’s outcome. Even if both Elu and I vote for morm, spawn will still die because she has 6 votes and was the first to reach that total.

But vote I will. And, while I think her innocent, spawn’s death will at least be highly informative. So:

+ + dancing spawn of ungoliant

If she is guilty, then Mith is a Duck or the Goose. If she is innocent, then Glirdan is a Duck or the Goose. Either way, the Nightingale will know whom to protect tonight, and we will be one enemy down and quite possibly two by the end of tomorrow.

[mormegil]

I think, if I'm not mistaken, we still have Elu and SpM to vote, right?

What I need to know from everyone is whom to dream of. Should I dream of Mith and make it a wasted dream as morm says? Or should I look at someone else? I need suggestions.

Well Glirdan, if you are the true Owl, I'm not fully convinced but Spawn's death is the hub of all of this, I would suggest not dreaming of Mith. I say this because if Spawn is guilty Mith is likely the Goose, if not you are. We can always lynch Mith or you on any given day if we lack a better suspect.

I would recommend dreaming of somebody a bit more useful and somebody that is on many lists. That would include me obviously, but others would be Roa, Jenny, and others that we would like to know like Kath for example. Of course, you could dream of any person you wish and deem best but I've already said that to dream of me is a waste of your potentially last dream, but of course nobody will believe this until I'm dreamt of or dead.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, I think you should look at whoever you think is the most dubious. I would suggest not bothering with me, since I most likely won't be around, or Nogrod or SPM, since they could just as likely be dead. Beyond that, I would suggest not discussing it too much. If you choose to dream of an innocent, that innocent may become the Ducks kill, and end up wasting a dream.

[Glirdan]

I realise that discussing this is not a good idea, but I need ideas here!! Spm is declared innocent. I believe in Nogrod and morm's innocence as well. There's only one person who I feel I need to dream of....but I don't know if I should. Roa, you bring up a good point that it does give the Ducks another kill at Night, but wouldn't you rather have your suspicons list lowered?? As for who I will dream of...I will wait and choose....I'll let you all know in the morning...if I survive....

[The Saucepan Man]

What I need to know from everyone is whom to dream of. Should I dream of Mith and make it a wasted dream as morm says?Well, if you are the Owl, I would not waste your dream on Mith. She will be lynched tomorrow and we will either win or we will rid ourselves of the Goose and have one more Duck to find. Similarly, Mith, if you are the Owl, do not waste your dream on Glirdan.

Whichever of you is the real Owl, you should be looking to find a Duck. It's up to you who you dream of.

Personally, those I see as the most suspicious at the moment are:

mormegil
Elu
JennyHallu

But you may disagree. Dream of the person you think looks most suspicious.

Obviously, though, if Elu does not turn up to vote today, there's no point in dreaming of him.

[JennyHallu]

Ok, now I've eaten, and I'm testier. @#*&% irritable bowels.

But...it is time to strive to be more useful. I really am sorry I've been so blah so far this game. I expected to have much more time to devote to it.

Now...where was I? OH! Usefulness...

The confusion of today's posting makes it hard to pick out who really stands out. To my mind, Morm, SPM, Noggie, Roa, Mith, Glirdy, Valier, and Anguirel are the standouts so far, for various reasons (loudness not least).

Checking back over this list, that means I (for the purposes of going to bed soon) plan to ignore Lote, Elu, DSoU, Lalaith, Cailin, Anguirel, and Kath. This in the first two cases is due to quiet, and in the latter four to consistent useful posting and discussion that seemed to avoid the gnarly pitfalls of Doom that seem to have engulfed most of the village. As I fall on the Glirdan side of the Owl/Goose camp, I think Spawn is a duck, and the rest I believe are probably innocent.

I am also not going to discuss myself, more than this brief statement: I am innocent. I am aware that SPM and Morm seem to be clamoring for more proof of that, but honestly every time I'm an ordo people start crying "wolf/duck/generally evil being" around me and I get horribly confused. I think most of the reason I'm pulling a lot of flak right now is that my posting habits just drastically changed, and there's not much I can do about that, so...umm...there. So there.

Glirdy, dream of whomever you feel most like dreaming of...but I would probably not dream of Roa, as it sounds (unfortunately) like she intends to withdraw.

Morm I just remembered I discussed with my vote earlier. I think he tops my suspicion list right now. Don't see much reason to change that...I notice he urges Glirdan to dream of someone "that is on many lists". He then goes on to list Roa, who may withdraw, and Kath, who seems to be on everyone's innocent list. I won't criticize him for listing me (though only SPM, Nogrod, and Cailin seem to have mentioned me much before), but I wonder why he urges these particular people?

SPM is, of course, always a stand out. I tend to class him as a neutral, but I'm hesitant to place him firmly into either pile as I sort out villagers in my mental village. As I said before, he confuses me, and that makes me nervous. I wish his posts were clearer, and a bit less verbose.

Noggie I think of as probably innocent. I am aware that he and I have a history of mutual suspicion, but I am going to break the tradition...I really don't see him as a Duck. This unusual ambivalence on my part has made him suspicious of me...figures I get thought of as Duckish for thinking somebody isn't.

Roa I originally suspected, mostly because of how aggressive she was. However, events today have allayed that. Covered in my post above.

Mith: Duck, Duck, GOOSE!

Glirdy: Once again, why do I accept Glirdy's revelation before Mith's? Because Glirdy's revelation was clear, useful, and involved no emotional references to Athena or Cassandra. Even if an Owlish Mith felt she was about to be lynched (which was by no means certain), there was no need to accuse everyone of willful blindness and take the tragic hero stand.

Valier is probably third on my suspicious list, behind Morm and SPM. She talks a lot, and urges people of how they should vote...honestly, plans for how votes should go always make me suspicious.

If I forgot anyone, tell me tomorrow. For now it's deadline time, and I don't feel good at all.

[Diamond18]

Final vote count:

Spawn: IIIII II (Glirdan, Morm, Roa, Nogrod, Valier, Jenny, SpM)

Mormegil: IIII (Spawn, Ang, Cailin, Kath)

Roa: III (Mith, Lote, Lalaith)

Kath: I (Sleepy)

Did not vote: Elu Ancalime. He will die alongside Spawn.

Deaths will be up shortly.

[Diamond18]

The Kum-Bah-Yah-ing of the morning was misleading indeed, as the second day saw the village descend into madness. The Moddess Goddess watched from her airy cloud throne in the sky and was amused by it all, verily.

By the close, the young Ent Glirdan’s accusation of Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant stuck, and the spider loving orcish astronaut was slated for death.

Glirdan, Roa, Nogrod, and Saucepan Orc seized the less-than-comely maiden and pinned her to the ground, though she thrashed and her skin was slimy, making it hard to get a really good handhold on her. However since Nogrod worked out, he was pretty buff, and was able to overpower their quarry.

“Let’s see how much you like spiders now,” snickered Valier, approaching with a jar of Spawn’s favorite pet spiders in her hand. Mormegil and Jenny watched approvingly but did nothing, as Morm was too idle an elf to sully his hands thus, and Jenny was, of course, not really there.

“What are you doing with my pretties?” Spawn gasped, but her question was soon answered as Valier dumped the contents of the jar into her gasping mouth.

Down her gullet tumbled the arachnids, and she choked and gagged on them, their fuzzy little thorax’s muting her screams.

The villagers watched in disgust, then horror, as the orc’s body changed. To tell the truth, aesthetically it was an improvement, as the feathers covered up her festering skin and the beak looked quite a bit better than her warty nose. But these villagers were a strange lot who lived in harmony with orcs and feared quacking waterfowl.

No sooner had she sprouted wings than the Dancing Duck of Ungoliant breathed — or rather choked — her last.

Simultaneously, the bystander Elu Ancalime was struck by a blinding flash of Mod Fire from above and burst into flames. His charred remains fell smoking to the ground and struck fear into the hearts of non-voters everywhere.

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2

~ The Living ~

Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher
Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker
Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist
Roa Aoife the Batwoman
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master

[Diamond18]

The villagers rose from their beds the next morning, with feelings of mingled dread and anticipation. They gathered together and did a head count, an arm count, a leg count, and a nose, mouth, eye, toe and finger count.

The heads, noses, and mouths numbered 13 each; the arms, legs, and eyes numbered 26 each; and the fingers and toes numbered 254 in total. (It turned out that Saucepan Orc, due to bad hygiene, had suffered the loss of some digits which had rotted and fallen off. )

But I digress.

This number revealed that one amongst them was missing. Lalaith had not come out to join the others in the town square (which was technically a trapezoid in shape). So they went, in trepidation, to the chubb fuddler’s house.

Nothing seemed amiss, at first. The door was not locked, but did not seem tampered with either. When they opened it, a delicious aroma wafted up their nostrils, and their tummies rumbled as one, for they had not yet had their breakfast.

The house was empty, but they followed the tantalizing scent to the kitchen, where they found a pot simmering over the stove. One of them noticed a note taped to the lid. It read:

You must be hungry from all that killing you’ve been doing. Have some leftover Lalaith for breakfast.

Horrified, the villagers recoiled from the bubbling stew, cursing their rumbling tummies. But they had to admit, Lal did smell really good.....

~~~~~~~~~

No sooner had they made this discovery, than a messenger arrived for Roa Aoife, calling her away to rejoin her regiment, which was doing battle with gigantic were-rabbits in the south. Loyal batwoman that she was, she rushed to rejoin her officer, wishing the villagers the best of luck.

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3

~ The Living ~

Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher
Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker
Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master

[mormegil]

*sigh* so we did loose Roa, thus essentially negating the nightingale's great protections of the previous night.

Glirdan do you wish to share your dream? I'm not sure how we all feel about killing Mith, I obviously think she's the goose so she would make a good kill if we have no real suspect on the docket.

[Valier]

So they choose to kill Lalaith last night, I guess the nightingale protected Glirdan then.

So Glirdan who did you dream of? I think if you choose someone other than Mith and they were innocent, we should lynch Mith, just to be sure,then try to narrow it down to the last Duck.

Mith I would like to hear what you have to say for yourself!!!!!

[mormegil]

Interesting. Only two posts so far and after yesterdays 200+...this simply won't do, people may be able to stay caught up on what is going on :rolleyes: .

Anyway I had hoped for more people to talk before bed time but I will wait until I arise.

[Anguirel]

Alas for Lalaith. She spoke little but was more help than can be guessed; sanity, reason, kindness and scepticism came from her. The last duck did well to be rid of her, for she would have unmasked it before long.

O Lalaith! As a Birdcatcher I pledge to you that I will find this vile duck, and that as a village we shall roast it together, remembering you.

I am still not wholly convinced by Glirdan. I can't believe Mith would go to all that literary effort for a mere werewolf ploy...it seems...too male and Asperger's...

So I shall be interested to hear who Mith, too, purports to have dreamt of. Though Goose Glirdan is hard to envisage.

We were doing better before this flock of Owls made its presence felt. I almost feel like hanging the whole lot to spare us the problem. But I realise this is laziness.

In retrospect, my case for morm was pretty shoddy, but that's not to say I didn't get the right duck for the wrong reasons. One of my other main suspects was proved correct when Spawn was slain, and this makes me partly doubt Glirdan's veracity.

A lot of us already suspected Spawn. As the duellist against Mith-apparently the Owl then-she seemed likely to be duckish. Could Glirdan the Goose have picked a likely wolf to turn in, thereby being seen as the Owl and causing confusion?

Apart from that, my suspicions are scattered and I would like to see what others think...even morm...

[Cailín]

Lalaith and Roa gone! Guess she was just an innocent after all.

I was surprised, shocked and amused by last Day's events after I left. I completely trusted Mith: everything seemed to make sense... and then Glirdy arrives. I think I was one of the few people who did not so much distrust Dancing Spawn, so again the outcome of our lynching shocked me. However, yay, only one more Duck still to go!

As for the Owl question: I am now inclined to trust Glirdan. We still have many innocents against one Duck, so we can withold our judgement. If Glirdan did not lie, the Ducks will have to kill him soon no matter what - they cannot afford to keep the Owl alive. If he is not killed, we'll know what to do.

Due to Spawn's vote for Mormegil yesterDay, I consider him innocent until proven otherwise.

Nogrod is again questionable, SpM is definitely a harmless little Orc.

[Anguirel]

Due to Spawn's vote for Mormegil yesterDay, I consider him innocent until proven otherwise.


Normally I would give a patronising snort of derision at this idea, muttering "guilty until proven innocent"...

But I wonder now whether you're on to something. It did look highly likely that morm would be lynched at that point, but Roa was also a strong alternative. Surely a duck of a reduced pack would choose Roa?

But it could have been a way to ingratiate herself with us after morm's lynching, after all.

So, in conclusion, Cailin...I give a patronising snort of derision at this idea. Muttermutter guilty until proven innocent muttermutter.

[Cailín]

So, in conclusion, Cailin...I give a patronising snort of derision at this idea. Muttermutter guilty until proven innocent muttermutter.

That is your right and you might be wiser than me. Let's reduce my statement to: there are better candidates than Mormegil toDay.

I'm going to reread Spawn's posts and other people's reactions to them... Perhaps we can learn something before Glirdan and Mith return and throw the whole village into confusion again.

[Cailín]

Another question before I continue:

What is the significance, if any, of Kath and Lalaith not believing Glirdan and voting for Mormegil and Roa instead?

We know Lalaith was innocent. How about Kath?

[Cailín]

Wow, my reread has left me even more confused. If Mithalwen is indeed the Goose, then she went to some lengths proving otherwise. She has named two people innocent whom I think are innocent as well and with her everything seems to fit.

Now Glirdan… he gave us a Duck. Accidentally, maybe? Would Glirdan the Goose be convinced of Spawn's innocence? Is he a Duck? Neither of these explanations seem very likely and Mithalwen was not attacked last Night. Of course, the Duck may be as clueless as we are.

So I suppose we shall have to let it slide and focus on other matters. We have fought and argued over this too long: Glirdan and Mith are Goose and Owl and only time will tell who is who. Glirdan seems more trustworthy -he did give us a duck and deserves some credit - but I would not be willing to bet my life on it. If they find a Duck: excellent, we can lynch that person and see who was truthful. If they find innocents: wonderful, but we can never be sure.

Because of yesterDay's proceedings, voting records seem useless. In general, people followed first Mith and then Glirdan with a few notable exceptions:

Kath who voted for Mormegil after Glirdy's revelation yesterDay.
Sleepy who voted for Kath
Lalaith, now deceased, voted for Roa after Glirdy's revelation

Which brings me to the question: why Lalaith? Sure, she was wise enough and generally not suspected, but would SpM not be a better candidate for eating? He is now more or less proven to be not the Goose nor a Duck.

And maybe it is worth mentioning that Anguirel and I followed Spawn in voting Mormegil instead of Roa_Aoife as proposed by Mithalwen. I know I am innocent and just found the case against Mormegil more convincing than against Roa… and though Anguirel's behaviour might have been a bit questionable in retrospect (i.e. the fierceness and his loyalty to Owl number one), I am hesitant to judge him on this.

I am also a little wary of Nogrod and JennyHallu. Nogrod because he was declared innocent by Mith. I think him likely innocent too, but I just don't wish to forget about him. JennyHallu because she insisted on continuing persecuting Saucy despite the fact that both Owl candidates had declared him innocent.

I am currently not at all suspicious of:

Saucepan Man - obvious reasons
Valier - because of her continued good insights (though I have no idea where she gets them from. If she is the final Duck, she is playing a remarkably cunning game.)
Mormegil - as mentioned above
Lote22 - because of the voting on Day 1

[Anguirel]

On Kath's vote...I don't find it particularly remarkable. Frankly, before we saw Spawn's aspyxiated corpse, to many of us Glirdan looked as Goosish as the current Prime Minister of Great Britain, er, Tol Eressea.

Mith made so much sense she convinced her fiercest enemy, Sauce. I was sure to the point of being coruscated with guilt; I saw her revelation coming, suddenly seeing her as an Owl. She had the hints. By contrast Glirdan was blunt and abrupt, and begged the question-if you're a bleeding Owl, why haven't you been wise yet? Though of course you do get quiet Owls, Glirdan still didn't have much cred when he hooted so suddenly.

So those like Kath, who probably, like me, sympathised with Mith and felt bad, were obviously going to disregard Glirdan's assertion unless they used the Saucine logic that killing Spawn was the only way of being sure.

Well, we've killed Spawn, and I don't know about you Cailin but I'm about as sure as a shantytown...

[Mithalwen]

Before you kill me.... let me speak.

I berated Sapwn for her inconsistent reading of the instructions. Now I suggest you all do.

I was astonished to read the events after my departure and "interested" to see how some people seem to think of me. While in a way to be lynched would give me blissful release from the Kafkaesque nightmare this game has become. It won't help us win.

At first I thought that Glirdan was doing a heroic protection act, was the hawk, trusting my judgement on Spawn and saving me for another nights dream. Then I thought again about Diamond's secret. I know I have been telling the truth. I do not believe Glirdan to be malicious. Therefore either he is lying with good intention or we are both telling the truth.

I am not sure about revelaing my dream. sinceI didn't htink I had a hop of being believed I satisfied my own curiousity and found an innocent. They aren't widely suspected and if you don't give me a chance they are clearly safe today.

My main suspects are now Roa, if she is still with us, Sleepy Ranger and above all
Jenny Hallu. Her attack on me was rather vitriolic. I will be here for about 45 mins. I f anyone shows signs of listening I will come back later. If not I will stay at home and enjoy the long weekend ratehr than struggle in to Bournemouth on the bank holiday.

I am not a crack pot despite my profession.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I see ROa has left.

Also, may I remind you that a lot of the negativity about me was stirred up by the WEREDUCK, Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant. You all put a lot of faith in her "analyses" although why cluttering up the thread by repeating what anyone could have more easily read for themselves if it weren't there helps I am not sure.



I can't believe I am saying this but I hope the Pan man is around before too long. He at least seems to be thinking outside the box at last.

[Kath]

I'm listening Mith. Stupid as it may sound to everyone I'm still not convinved by Glirdan, even after spawn was revealed to be a Duck. It could have been a lucky guess, it could have been the result of a dream, but I'm willing to hear from both potential Owl's, if only to try and clear this all up!

It's a shame we lost Roa toDay, though I think it helps a little in that she was one of the ones people were unsure over, and so we've managed to avoid a Day arguing over her role.

As to Lalaith, it seems an odd kill given the number of apparently 'proven' innocents around, as well as two possible Seers to choose from. Perhaps it was intended as a safe kill in order to avoid suspicion?

[Mithalwen]

Kath bear in mind, if you work on the hypothesis that I am telling the truth, that the Duck knows I am innocent and a likely candidate to be lynched today. HHe also knows about Glirdan - either he is Glirdan, he thinks Glirdan is the protected owl, he thinks glirdan is a protective hawk. Either way no point in killing either of us last night.

Best option to kill someone who is universally regarded as innocent.

NB He doesn't mean I definitely think the duck is male

[Mithalwen]

Forgive me one more statistic but without yet revealing last nights innocent, I will say that I don't "KNOW" about any of the remaining female villagers other than myself. However I think Lote is the least probable followed by, Kath, Cailin, Valier and JennyHallu in order though JH is a long way ahead of Valier in my suspicions.

Three males are unaccounted for (in my book) but one of those is Glirdan. If Glirdan is the Duck it is the most astounding piece of werebeast play ever surely -but that doesn't make it impossible.

[Cailín]

Well, Mithalwen. I am more confused than ever. It would be nice to be able to believe you both, but ah, what do we know? Anyway:

Best option to kill someone who is universally regarded as innocent.

Um, I hope you do not intend to kill off one of our known innocents? Could we not better kill the non-Owl / Goose / Protector we all suspect the most?

Your suspicions are similar to mine.

I am forced to leave now and let this game go for a couple of days. Diamond18 has not given me permission to do this yet, but I fear I have no choice and you will figure it out anyway... I hope no one will be mad. See the TiG Junior thread for more info.

Good luck, villagers. See you on the other side.

[Mithalwen]

Um, I hope you do not intend to kill off one of our known innocents? Could we not better kill the non-Owl / Goose / Protector we all suspect the most?

.

Cailin I was saying why I thought the duck killed Lalaith last night. Not a suggestion for today!!!! Of course we (the village) shouldn't kill an known innocent. I realise the water's are muddied on that score for a lot of you.

Of the males I suspect Sleepy most. The ladies, I have stated... trouble is that some of you are too good to discount.

Even if I return, I cannot stay to the end. So I will vote as I can. For those in different zones wait and see Glirdan's take on this. Please don't waste your lynch on me.....

[Lote22]

I'm thinking Mith is probably a goose so I want to wait until Glirdan tells us who he dreamed of because that person could be a duck. I would rather vote for a duck than a goose. I think Mith is a goose because saying you are the owl so early in the game is to bold a move for a duck.

I'm leaving now but I'll be back in about 5 hours.

[Sleepy Ranger]

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=464457&postcount=1155

I'm really sorry I have to do this and I hope nobody will be mad at me, I'd really hate to lose any friends due to this but things have gone terribly wrong! I'm sorry! :(

[Anguirel]

I don't believe Diamond would include such a heavy-handed secret as two Owls, Mith. Look at her rhyme-it mentions one Owl and one Secret.

If you ask me the secret is of an "Ooo that's clever Diamond!" variety rather than a "What in Hades have you done to this poor inoffensive village" variety. It is therefore unlikely to be two Owls. Perhaps Diamond could even confirm.

I still trust Mith though...I just think Glirdan is malevolent, but incompetent. Though surely not to the level of being the last Duck.

As a result I trust Nogrod as well as Sauce; well, I did anyway, actually. I'm disappointed that morm apparently remains unknown.

Of the quieter ones Jenny and Valier are both attracting my suspicion for the eagerness with which they jumped against Mith and for Glirdan, though obviously they're not both guilty...

EDIT: The one advantage of all these fleeing villagers-Roa and Sleepy-is that, knowing their innocence, (I assume Sleepy's innocent?) we can examine their attackers and defenders with extra information.

[Diamond18]

I can neither confirm nor deny anything.

Except that Sleepy is no longer in the game. I would post a more in-character departure for him than this, but I'm already late for work anyway. So you should consider Sleepy as no longer amongst you and I'll update the list at Day's end.

EDIT: Yes, Sleepy was innocent.

[Nogrod]

I agree with Ang that the scenario of two seer's (or one true, one false) would be quite drastic. Even though Diamond didn't confirm that query.

But think about this. If you come forwards with an Owl-claim on DAY2, you need two dreams too - and they should be right. Now as I know my ordoness in this game, I know she was right in one of the two - and I tend to believe her on Spm too. But how about Glirdy? He gave us a duck (it takes a duck to no another... :p ), but his other revealment? Spm, already revealed by Mith!!! That would be safe-play by a duck trying to look like an owl and to go to the end of the game (he cuold go on revealing anyone he likes from the point of Miths death onwards, because he is the only duck around - and we would just think Mith's ordoness being goosyness).

That's the only reasonable scenario I can come up with at present.

I'm having a busy day, but try to come in later on with more thoughts - if I get some...

And I'm so sad that Roa eventually decided to leave - and Sleepy too. And Cailin out for two days? Hmmmm...

[Anguirel]

Mith, I for one-regarding you as I do as the one, the true, the indivisible Owl-would really like to see who you proved innocent last night. With the help of that information, and the unknown Hawk's-who also knows, probably, who was guarded on the second Night-we could start really narrowing the pool of possible ducks. Depending on whether the Hawk believes in you and wants to make themself known, I suppose.

The point Nogrod has just made-that Glirdan conveniently "revealed" Sauce-is one I had thought of before as more evidence against him.

[JennyHallu]

Um...I have errands to run so not much time until later...but I wanted to say one brief thing in my defense: I came home from work yesterday (sick) to read 5 pages of confusion, and I totally missed that Glirdy dreamed of SPM too. Major oops there. So, Saucie, I'm sorry. You're innocent. I admit it.

Part of the reason I trust Glirdan over Mith was that confusion. I don't think enough people had voted for Mith for an Owly revelation to be necessary. And Glirdy felt like a breath of fresh air.

[Anguirel]

That's rather nonsensical. When Mith made her revelation, it wasn't really voting time yet, but opinion was definitely swinging against her. Had she not declared herself, two voting blocs, for her and for Spawn, would probably have developed. As it was, attention shifted to my, frankly rather bizarre, case against morm, who would surely have been lynched had it not been for Glirdan's appearance.

I and many others were considering voting for Mith, including Cailin, Sauce and naturally spawn. You ought to consider what might have happened as much as what did happen.

Sauce, since I now have no choice but to admit your innocence, as Glirdan is firmly a Goose in my mind, I am going to go back and investigate your famous "birdlime" plan...and try and see what on earth you were up to.

[Glirdan]

Well.....this is a shocking way to come in....Roa gone, Lalaith dead and Sleepy departing.....not good....and to top it all off (and this is going to get me into a LOT of trouble [don't kill me!! I had RL reasons for not doing it!!! :( ]) I didn't have a dream last Night.... (OCC - I came on briefly after school and then had to leave after that for the rest of the day. I didn't come back until after the Day started and before that, I had school and bed. I had no chance whatsoever(sp?) of getting my Dream in) I probably would have dreamed of Lalaith if I had the chance to and that would have been a wasted dream as well as putting me in a worse situation. This is not good......

Mith, after reading your posts, I'm quite bewildered. As Ang says, it's highly unlikely that our Moddess would have included something as drastic as another Seer....but, when I think about it, it's not entirely surprising.... and if it is true, well.... but we have no way of finding out now unless we dream of each other. But what's the point in that? If you aren't the Duck, and I most certainly know that I'm not the Duck, the real Duck is going to go after one of us toNight and, unfortunately for you and me, I have a feeling that he's going to go after you toNight which puts me in a bad spot tomorrow. But if he goes for me, then it puts you in a bad spot tomorrow unless you are guilty.

Ang, I have nothing at all to say to you. You confuse me. You really do. You were the one of the other people I was considering of dreaming about. It was either going to be yourself, Lalaith or Valier because I don't trust any of you. Lalaith would have been a useless dream as she is now dead. But now, I'm more convinced that you, along with SpM (proven either way by Mith or myself), Nogrod, morm (these two simply because of the way they're posting), Lote (because of her Day 1 vote) and a now departed Sleepy. But you still confuse me, even if I believe you innocent.

Nogrod, I was wondering when someone was going to come up with the revelation of SpM. And I knew when I revealed myself that it would put me in a bad spot once again. I knew of all the dangers that I was putting myself in when I revealed myself, yet I still did it. If I were a Duck, why would I be so stupid as to do something like this and get my fellow Duck killed? Especially when it probably wouldn't have been planned! Why would I betray a fellow Duck? I see no logic in this.

[mormegil]

If I were a Duck, why would I be so stupid as to do something like this and get my fellow Duck killed? Especially when it probably wouldn't have been planned! Why would I betray a fellow Duck? I see no logic in this.

Stupid? Nay, it would be superbly intelligent to do. It gives you credibility as our owl and if we were to kill Mith and all she would do is show up as an ordo, you would be thought of as our owl. Now that fact that you didn't have a dream last night is frightfully suspicious the only thing worse would be to say that you dreamt of Lal, but you took that even a step further and said that you would have dreamt of her. I find it dubious that you couldn't find 5 minutes with which to make your dream. You had a good plan but it unraveled by your idea to not dream. Still if he is the true owl I'd hate to do the duck's job for him/her.

Mith, of whom did you dream?

[Anguirel]

I think it might be helpful to summarise the politics involved before and after both Owl revelations.

Before Mith's revelation

For Mith

Mith herself
Morm, to a degree

Against Mith

Spawn
Me to a degree
Roa
Cailin to a degree
Kath to a degree
Sleepy
Sauce


After Mith's revelation

For Mith

Mith
Kath
Me
Cailin
Sauce, to a degree
Valier (Note that Valier suspected Spawn most at this stage...)
Nogrod
Lote...well you get the idea. No real need for an "Against Mith"


After Glirdan's revelation

For Glirdan

Glirdan
Valier
Nogrod, to a degree
Lote
Jenny

Against Glirdan

Kath
Lalaith
Sauce

There we go. Mith's declaration was necessary to save her, quite clearly. Equally, a large minority resisted Glirdan until dead Spawn threw us all into turmoil. Interesting.

[Glirdan]

I knew this was going to happen... but what could I have done? Come up with a complete lie and say I dreamed of someone? No, I'm not that kind of person. Besides, I'm pretty sure at least one person out there would have asked who I would have dreamed of. I was debating on who to Dream of. Yes, Lalaith was at the top of my list, but Valier was really high up there to. The only reason why I chose Lalaith is because of her past as is the case with Ang. Valier was actually pushing herself up on the list past Lalaith and when I think back on it, it was actually a tie of who I was going to dream of. Like I said morm, I knew the circumstances that could possibly arise when I revealed myself.

But yes, who did you dream of Mith? You failed to mention that when you first came on.

[Anguirel]

Glirdan, you don't seem to understand some of the rules changes in this game.

An Owl dream, a kill and a lynching alike lead to only two results-quite simply, Duck, and Innocent. So you "Owls" dreaming of each other is even more futile than usual, as if one of you is a Goose it won't show up.

Besides that, your dreams have been stunningly, stunningly convenient. An already established innocent. A widely suspected Duck. And now nothing and no-one at all, except a Lalaith that might have been, eh? How interesting that the Duck and the, er, Esteemed Reverend Professor Owl, both lighted on the same helpful, quiet, intelligent player. Not that by your account you ever got around to lighting on her.

EDIT: Regarding Mith's dream, she went no further than saying she'd dreamt of an innocent male, in no danger at the moment, whom she did not wish to implicate, it seems. Too discreet for Owlery I agree, but that's Mith for you. I earlier begged her to reveal it when she returns...

[Anguirel]

I am not sure about revelaing my dream. sinceI didn't htink I had a hop of being believed I satisfied my own curiousity and found an innocent. They aren't widely suspected and if you don't give me a chance they are clearly safe today.

Later she said she didn't "know" anything about any of her fellow female villagers. This is rather a shame as all my main suspects are currently female. I do hope she didn't waste her dream on me.

[Glirdan]

Ang, I'm going to say this now and for everyone to hear and not care about the consequences: I have absolutely no patience to deal with you or this right now. I had a very bad week all week and now you come and say that I don't know how the game works! This is insulting!! Very insulting! So, if you want to lynch me, be my guest!! I really couldn't care less now that I've seen what you all think. Now, I'm going to go off and cool down because if I stay any longer, I will go balistic. I'll come back later. Good day!!

[Anguirel]

1) You lynch me toDay and find out that I am in fact the Seer. You lynch spawn and she's proven the Duck. You then lynch Mith and she's provent to be the final Duck. Village win.

2) Same scenario with the exception that Mith is proven innocent or the Goose. There's still one Duck left.

3) You lynch spawn toDay, she's proven guilty. I dream of Mith toNight and (hopefully) shown that she's the final Duck. We lynch her tomorrow. Village win.

4) Same scenario with the exception that Mith is show to me as innocent or the Goose. Dream (not wholly) wasted. I dream a useless dream and get attacked the next Night. Still one Duck left.


I'm being truthful, and I'm sorry if that entails being disagreeable.

In scenario 1, we would not have discovered your Seership on lynching you.

In scenario 2, Mith would not be proven, on being lynched, to be a Goose.

Scenario 3 happened, but, so far as dreaming of Mith goes, you didn't actually dream at all.

In scenario 4, Mith again would not be shown as a Goose.

Your recent comment about dreaming of her seemed to confirm that you hadn't grasped the concept yet. I was trying to help...

Still, if you're really insulted, why don't you leave the village in protest? Seems to be a popular course of action at the moment...

Gentlemen and ladies of our esteemed quorum, I put it to you that what we are dealing with is a very confused Goose. How confused exactly we can't yet tell. I say we find the Duck and then this poor Goose can be given psychiatric help or eaten for Sunday lunch.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies to one and all for my late appearance. When I tried to make it to the village square earlier, I had problems getting here. And then I had to pop out to the shops to get something for the Orcling boy's birthday.

I had imagined, when the web-footed spawn was revealed in all her awful Duckishness, that things would be fairly straightforward today. I was all for lynching Mithalwen, for I thought her either a Duck or the Goose. But reviewing the Day's events thus far, and thinking more deeply on it, I see that it is not nearly so simple as that.

Last night, before we knew spawn's nature, my inclination was to trust Mith, for her Owlish revelation seemed far more credible than Glirdan's. Strangely enough, that remains the case. Mithalwen has seemed entirely reasonable today and at least dreamed of someone, even if she is unwilling to reveal their identity (Mith, I think that you should). Glirdan, on the other hand, is jumpy, defensive and sensitive, and he doesn't even have a dream to offer us.

One thing I am almost certain about, now. Neither of them is the remaining Duck. One is the Owl and the other, I am sure, is the Goose. So, were we to lynch either of them today, we would be none the wiser tomorrow. I think, therefore, that our best bet would be to look elsewhere today.

At present, I most distrust mormegil (who was looking to be in serious danger yesterday before Glirdan's "revelation") and JennyHallu (who was rather to eager to accept Glirdan and dis Mithalwen). But I will go back and review what has been said in more detail and come back, I hope, with some further thoughts.

[Anguirel]

Most sensible Sauce-and Goose Glirdan has unwittingly served our purposes. Since the Nightingale probably guarded him last night, they ought to be be free tonight to allow Mith another dream, should we all get things wrong today.

I am still awaiting Mith's information though and certainly hope to be armed with it before I vote.

[Valier]

I'm telling you all I am no Duck, so please don't waste a dream on me! I am surprised to hear the accusations about me today and it sucks that Glirdan was unable to get in a dream on time. I won't be around much today, but I will check in from time to time and I will definately vote. Please don't lynch me! I want to find the last Duck, but todays posts are again confusing! I will be back later....

[Anguirel]

You may not be a Duck, Valier, but you're definitely a turkey if you're still taken in by Glirdan...

Any further analysis coming up Saucie, or are you waiting on Mith like me?

[Valier]

Glirdan still may be a Duck in my opinion! Kinda convienient he didn't dream......Mith who did you dream of then?

[Kath]

Well, Glirdan is certainly mkaing himself look suspicious! Very defensive, and a missed dream? More than ever now I believe him to be the Goose, or at least a very misguided innocent. Thank you Ang for pointing out all those inconsistencies in his arguments, though I think perhaps that they are more likely to show him as an innocent than the Goose, as surely if he were the Goose he would understand the way the role works?

What does worry me though is the number of people popping in just to say 'I'm not a Duck so don't waste your lynch on me'. Those who do this are naturally suspect to me.

In fact, about the only people I think innocent right now are:
SPM - because whether Mith or Glirdan is the Owl he has been proved so.
Mith - because I believe her to be the Owl.
Ang - because he seems to be on the exact same wavelength as me.

Those I think suspicious are:
Glirdan - I think he is either the Goose or an innocent causing havoc.
morm - mostly due to Ang.

Mith, I would strongly urge you to reveal who you dreamt of, as we have a very low number of known innocents, and it is hard to makes plans for what to do in future days if we lose you toNight if we don't know who we can trust. However, your role your rules. We'll just have to live with it.

[Mithalwen]

I dreamed of Anguirel who is innocent. I started reading through the posts then RL time rather than game time caught up with me and I chose Ang since Morm had begged me not to dream of him. He seemed to understand and I had to be certain I could trust him if my part in the game went on. I had thought of Roa as you know but it seemed likely she was pulling out and I reckoned it would be a waste. I waited since I didn't want to expose him unnecessarily. It seemed that the innocent villagers would not believe me but the Duck would know I was telling the truth

[Mithalwen]

Note re timing.

It has been clear from get go when I can post. I am sure that has played into some people's hands. We have seen the consequences of not voting.

It was pretty late for me when I "came out" and as I said the Pan Man's clear suspicion was the clincher. Be honest with yourselves and see if you really htink you wouldn't have followed his lead had I gone without speaking? You had wasted nearly 2 days on me - if SpM and Spawn had started a bandwagon , I really doubt many would have gone against it.


Glirdan is looking very dodgy now to me.

[Anguirel]

Ah. That's what I feared you'd done. Well, that means my options aren't helped that much more. Well done though Mith, this new correct claim further butresses the truth in your words.

I'll be back for some serious deduction after I've revised a few Horace poems-the Classics seem to be a useful occupation from a birdcatcher wishing to tell an Owl from a Duck! Within that time, with any luck, the Hawk will come forward with whatever they know.

[Anguirel]

Before I leave, a quick summary for you all of what I think/we know of the remaining players-

Anguirel-Innocent
Mithalwen-Owl
Saucepan Man-Innocent
Mormegil-I'm inclined to think he's innocent, despite everything. Unknown
Valier-Unknown; I suspect her slightly
Nogrod-Innocent
Kath-Unknown; I suspect her very little but she's kept on my good side for some reason
Cailín-Unknown; I suspect her quite strongly
Glirdan-Goose
Lote22-Very likely innocent, but officially Unknown
JennyHallu-Extremely suspicious; Unknown

[Mithalwen]

I am not saying that a second owl is the secret, but you have to remember that like poor Lucy in The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, I have the advantage of knowing I am telling hte truth about myself.

If you reflect you will seen that though I am a rather erratic, and eccentric character I have behaved consistently with what I say I am. It doesn't mean I am right about things I don't know..... but what I know I have been truthful about. And now I am turning into Donald Rumsfeld....."The known knowns etc"

[Mithalwen]

I have to say that I think that Lalaith would have been an exceedingly odd Owl choice. She never gave me any reason to think her anything other than innocent.

[mormegil]

I tend to think that Mith is indeed the owl. Why? Because her jumpy behavior before her proclamation and her calmness after. This is consistent with my knowledge of her character. I believe goose Glirdan hurt the ducks more than helped. He not only told us of a real duck but he probably received protection last night thus freeing up protection tonight for Mith.

[Glirdan]

Well, everything is still flying around. God, you know what, I give up with you people!! It's absolutely impossible for me to get through to you! Like I said, you want to lynch me, be me guest!!!! I'm over this!! You want to loose your Owl, go right ahead. I completely give up with all of you. Nogrod, Lote, Valier you three are probably the only three I really have any faith in now. I'm not leaving though. That would just be the quitters way out and I'm not a quitter. Oh, Ang, before you go attacking those who drop out, have you ever even stopped to consider that they have problems going on? Did you? I'm sorry for being the way I normally am and being defensive! I thought by now that all of you would have gotten used to this! But noooo!! Be my guest and lynch me. You'll all be sorry when you do. Now, I will stay, and I know this seems very kiddish, but I have no patience for any of you (with the exception of Valier, Nogrod and Lote), but I will only talk to those three. I'm not having a good week. And be careful of what you say. I'm in a VERY vindictive mood right now.

[Mithalwen]

How can an owl not manage to dream? Glirdan was online til at least an hour before the dead line when Spawn's fate was already sealed. If he had any doubts about not getting on line, surely he could have left a provisional request with Diamond? IE"If you don't hear from me before such and such a time I will choose X? ".

Having modded myself twice I am sure I would have accepted such an arrangement......
but of course that kind of thing is part of the Divine Right of Moderators and they have ultimate discretion..

[Mithalwen]

but I will only talk to those three. I'm not having a good week. And be careful of what you say. I'm in a VERY vindictive mood right now.


If that is how it is going to be - I would rather Diamond pulled the game. This is ridiculous. There is a limit to what I will put up with and I have to say it has got close a number of times.

[Nogrod]

I'm coming more and more convinced about my earlier speculation about Glirdy as a liar. Now an ordo would not lie, in that manner? So a goose (tumbling one) or a duck (stupid one)? I'd go for the first option, knowing he is an intelligent guy.

Ang has seemed very reasonable today - as has Spm. And all this is going to gather some clouds over Morm. I have had my suspicions on him after his list on Nilp-vote on, and can't see them to have disappeared for now. So if we are after a duck, we should look at him as one of the candidates. His begging for Mith a to not "waste" her dream on him seem to me especially noteworthy. It could be seen as an altruistic villager saying "don't bother for me", but it could also be duckish indeed... as no duck would want to be dreamed of.

EDIT: X-posted with a bunch of people...

[Nogrod]

Glirdan: don't overheat, please. This is a game...

Your anguish would be noted with more subtler expressions too. I will have to think this one again one more time (I don't think I will change my mind though, but we'll see), but really, cool down...

[Nogrod]

Triple posting...

I agree with Mith: Lalaith seemed to me a very strange "wannabee" dream - as it seemed a very strange kill too! Are these things related? Might be...

[Glirdan]

It's to late Nogrod. I've had it! I'm stressed due to RL reasons and all of this is just making me feel even more stressed. Maybe I should let my pride go and just drop out...

[Nogrod]

It's to late Nogrod. I've had it! I'm stressed due to RL reasons and all of this is just making me feel even more stressed. Maybe I should let my pride go and just drop out...

C'mon, man...

[Mithalwen]

Glirdan -


I of all people understand RL issues and the game getting too much. But I think you should really try to continue in the circumstances. Unless it is life and death in RL

[Glirdan]

I never said I wanted to, but by the looks of things, it would make everything else easier for me and for everyone in the game. I don't know what to do right now...I just need to think this through....

[Mithalwen]

Crysanthemum tea all round I think...... :D

[The Saucepan Man]

Ang, I have been analysing. Mith's declaration of your innocence confirms what I had previously thought, so does not change my musings below.

On the double-Owl possibility, it would explain a few things, but I just don’t see it as being likely, given the Diamoddess’s original explanation.

My “birdlime” plan, Ang, was put with genuine intention. At that time, I thought it fairly likely that the Owl had been targeted by the Ducks and protected by the Nightingale the previous Night and so was trying to find a way of gaining the Owl’s knowledge before he or she was killed the next Night. Mormegil pointed out that the Nightingale might be identified by the Ducks from the Hawk’s revelation, but I was rather relying on the Nightingale and the Hawk to use their discretion in this regard. It is quite possible that they have been at pains to avoid any apparent connection. In any event, it is entirely superfluous now.

Being an Orc of little brain, I failed completely to understand Mith’s rhyme (as I failed to appreciate her Athena allusions) and so wouldn’t mind an explanation at some point.

But, for now, on to more pressing matters.

Here’s yesterday’s voting:

1. Spawn for morm (morm-1)
2. Ang for morm (morm-2)
3. Mith for Roa (morm-2, Roa-1)
4. Cailin for morm (morm-3, Roa-1)
5. Sleepy for Kath (morm-3, Roa-1, Kath-1)
6. Lote for Roa (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1)
7. Glirdan for spawn (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-1)
8. Mormegil for spawn (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-2)
9. Kath for morm (morm-4, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-2)
10. Lalaith for Roa (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-2)
11. Roa for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-3)
12. Nogrod for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-4)
13. Valier for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-5)
14. Jenny for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-6)
15. SpM for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-7)

Did not vote: Elu

All votes came after Mith’s revealtion. Glirdan’s revelation was followed immediately by his vote for spawn. Interesting that Kath chose not to go along with Glirdan’s claim and voted for mormegil. If morm is innocent, perhaps she’s the last Duck. But I happen to find morm very suspicious. And, in Kath’s position, I can see myself as having done the same.

I find mormegil’s reactions to the revelations very interesting. Before Glirdan came out, he said:

Mith I knew you weren't a Duck and I can see your need in coming out...knowing you as I do He then practically begged Mith not to dream of him:

Now if I survive the day, it seems unlikely, I implore you to trust me and not dream of me. It will avail you little. I am neither the goose nor a duck.And then, in the same post:

Again Mith, trust me, there is no need to waste your dream on me.This I found very suspicious at the time, but the implications of which were rather superseded by subsequent events.

Having said that he knew Mith was not a Duck, morm then seemed to accept Glirdan’s claim by voting for spawn (although he did say that he was not fully convinced). A bold move, if he’s a Duck, but perhaps a case of desperate times calling for desperate measures. In any event, having accepted Mith’s claim wholeheartedly, he then goes along with Glirdan’s claim. That looks strange to me. But perhaps he knew that spawn was the Duck (because he’s one himself), correctly assessed that most who had not yet voted would accept Glirdan’s claim and vote for her, and wanted to be seen as against her himself rather than protecting her. A case of making the best of a bad situation for him, a bad situation into which his crony had unwittingly got him, if Glirdan is the Goose.

Today, he initially raised the prospect of voting for Mith. Convenient, if she is the Owl and Glirdan the Goose (as I suspect is the case). But also bad advice. As I said earlier, if we lynch either Glirdan or Mith today we will be none the wiser tomorrow and, quite possibly, an Owl down. Then, when village opinion seems to be turning against Glirdan and for Mithalwen, he switches again and finds Glirdan to be suspicious. Hedging his bets? Frankly, all this flip-flopping is out of character for morm and it just makes me all the more nervous of him.

Spawn’s vote for morm yesterday does speak in his favour, though. Although it was the first and she was not to know that he would become such a prime suspect. And neither was she to know that she would later be “revealed” as a Duck. It does not clear him by any means.

As for JennyHallu, I am concerned by her eagerness to accept Glirdan’s claim and to see suspicion in Mith’s behaviour (as I said yesterday, Owlish behavious can look very Duckish at times). She was the one, effectively, who put the final nail in spawn’s coffin. If, however, she is a Duck, she could hardly have come out at that stage and voted for anyone else. There was a lot of pressure on her to vote for spawn and it would have looked very strange had she not done so and spawn was then lynched and proved to be a Duck.

I also find the certainty with which she voted rather alarming:

[plus signs removed] Dancing Duck of Ungoliant (Uh-oh...Now my brain has called up the song "Disco Duck". She's got to be evil if she's got that stuck in my head.)If she’s a Duck herself, she knew that spawn was too. I always find this kind of “definitive” voting suspicious.

The other two that concern me at the moment are Valier and Lote22. Although I had thought them probably innocent for their votes for Nilp, they too were swiftly convinced by Glirdan’s claim. And both have stood by that today, which would be in a Duck’s interest if (as I believe) Mith is the Owl and Glirdan the Goose.

So, my own version of Ang’s list:

Anguirel-Innocent
Mithalwen-most likely the Owl
Saucepan Man-Innocent
Mormegil-Unknown; extremely suspicious
Valier-Unknown; suspicious
Nogrod-Innocent
Kath-Unknown; slightly suspicious (more so if morm is innocent)
Cailín-Unknown; I trust her for now
Glirdan-most likely the Goose
Lote22-Unknown; suspicious
JennyHallu-Unknown; extremely suspicious

I will be back later. Unless things change dramatically (and that seems fairly likely in this village :rolleyes: ), I will probably be voting for either morm or Jenny.

[Nogrod]

So many people have abandoned this game already (with worthy reasons, I won't doubt them), so really, consider it, Glirdan!

If you are a goose, that's the most convincing playing I have ever seen... if you are an ordo, please come up with your reasons to play the Owl. If you are the Owl... well. We should see the problems with Mith - which are far more harder to see at the moment than yours. Sorry.

EDIT: X-posted with Spm - and agree with his post.

[The Saucepan Man]

If you are a goose, that's the most convincing playing I have ever seen... if you are an ordo, please come up with your reasons to play the Owl. If you are the Owl... well. We should see the problems with Mith - which are far more harder to see at the moment than yours. Sorry.I rather feel that the first possibility is the most likely. If I am wrong, Glirdy, please - take some time out, relax and come back when you are feeling a bit calmer.

It's only a game, after all! :rolleyes:

Doctor Who calls. Back later.

[Glirdan]

I know I'm really off my game. This month has been a hard one for me. Besides, there's so many cases against me, all of which are completey valid, that I really see no hope in me being able to get out of it. I'm still thinking about it and haven't come to a desicion yet. I need some time to myself to really think this through and I don't get that time for another two hours. If you need me, I'll be around...

[Mithalwen]

Whatever is going on here, I would rather it was played out.

Can somone point me to the birdlime plan? And what rhyme? My hints were excessively subtle but I was hoping to play a "long game"!!!!

[mormegil]

SpM, you make a decent arguement but I want to state a couple of things. When I was asking Mith to not dream of me, I was talking to Mith and asking her to trust me. Seemingly she did as I trust her. I never accepted Glirdan to be the owl fully, as you noted. I saw an opportunity to lynch somebody who was at the key to a lot of information. Spawn being shown a duck made me think Glirdan was the true owl but Mith has made some great points but then Glirdan came out with his first post and my mind changed. What's so suspicous about that? I saw a better theory and adjusted accordingly.

Now you bring up a great point about Kath and that has been unsettling to me since it happened. Why wouldn't she help to lynch Spawn? You stated that if I'm innocent she looks a lot worse off, well being that I know I am innocent I agree that she is far more guilty looking now.

I would like to hear from Jenny today before I make a judgement on that.

[Anguirel]

Alright. I'm back, though to be honest I was so excited I did the Horace at rather high speed.

Glad to see that the Hawk has made himself known now. What, he hasn't? You don't know the half of it, buddy.

I am the answer, as it happens, to all the riddles, as my honourable friend the Duck-whom I suspect is a professional hypocrite known in the area as mormegil-knows well.

On the second night, I refused to let my most learned friend Philomela protect me. Until she put forward some convincing arguments. And I remembered I was Papageno, a coward and a buffoon. So I accepted.

That was fortuitous as it turned out, for the Ducks of the Night had trained their bills on me. I in turn had my curved beak aimed at mormegil. If I'm right, had I insisted on being unprotected the Night could have been one of valiant death, not simple relief, and the whole course of events would have been different. But I don't begrudge Philomela her solicitude. It turned out well enough for me.

Before Spawn was lynched, I had her too down for a shot, of which I am rather proud.

Last Night Philomela and I disagreed, in the politest possible way, about the Owls. She backed Glirdan, I backed Mith. So she decided to guard Glirdan, an unexpected bonus, you'll be thinking. Yes, indeed, Mith can be guarded toNight.

As for me, I hunted Valier. Dashed lucky I wasn't killed, particularly as the chump of a Duck knew I wouldn't be guarded. It should have struck then. Instead poor luckless Lalaith fell victim to their beak. I'm not sure why but I suspect she was erroneously assumed to be Philomela.

But I survived, still convinced Mith was right, and Glirdan has pretty much admitted as much.

Philomela, you know who you are and where you are. Thankyou for the excellent job. I couldn't have hoped for a better fellow warrior. Keep watch over Mith tonight.

And now I am newly convinced of the justice of my original scheme by Saucie, I shall get down to doing what I do best.

Bird-catching! Der Vogelfänger bin ich ja!

++MORMEGIL

There, Saucie, did I fulfill the bird-lime plan correctly?

By the way, duck, Philomela's femininity is a poetic concept, not necessarily a fact. If you survive, you've got the lads to choose from too...

[Mithalwen]

Shall we bear in mind, that unless D18 has got very cunning indeed we are looking for just the one Duck and Goose? And an awful lot of deeply confused innocents.

I want to trust you Morm, but as with Ang I wanted to know for sure ....... that is why oine of you was my personal choice..... if I realised I would have had such a fair trial today I might have chosen otherwise...... and looked at the girls more.

I also had to try and think who might get killed - and since you and Ang have been among the few who gave me a chance when all doubted me, I thought you vulnerable...... Spawn's suspicion of you is something I will have to look at. :cool:

NB X post with Ang ... wow

[mormegil]

"He is proud, knowing nothing, but doting about questions and strifes of words, whereof comth envy, strife, railiings, evil surmisings,"

Anguirel, you my friend are a pompous fool and if I die I shall go with a smile on my face knowing that while not likely, perhaps this may be a blow to your ego and debase you a bit.

Some people seem to remember that Spawn was on my me like stink on a monkey and while this could be a good tactic to be used, why would she go after me so fervently so soon with her numbers being already reduced? It was very apparant that I was the favorite candidate for lynching yesterday. You Ang have great knowledge but lack wisdom, which hopefully will come to you with age.

[Mithalwen]

OK So if I can be protected tonight we get two bites at the cherry ...


Assuming Ang has no reason to lie since the nightigale can vouch for him, and that I am telling the truth we have

Known innocents:

Anguirel
Mithalwen
SPM
Nogrod


Unknown

Morm
Valier
Kath
Cailin
Glirdan
Lote
JennyHallu


Is that it? We have lost a lot....... considering that the ducks have only managed one kill.

I would be surprised if Lote was the duck - her vote for Nilp would have been too odd....so ..I don't want Mormegil to be guilty but I don't know.... I would rather dream about him than kill him if there is any doubt. But it would be good to get this sorted...sooner rather than later. Need to reread ....

[Anguirel]

Yup, I'm again feeling I might have made a colossal mistake with morm. But if you are innocent, me old idleman, it was an act of colossal foolishness to beg Mith to avert her eyes. What's wrong with having another known innocent? Mith would not have wasted her dream on me, I who had other means of asserting my innocence if I wished, and we could have concentrated on, say, Jenny. If I have been mistaken at times, morm, so have you, and you might have had the grace to admit that. Oh well.

Vote as you wish, everyone, and of course I strongly advise trusting in Mith. Not that you won't have gathered that that's the right course of action by now.

One of the main points of my admission is to demonstrate that Glirdan was not a Hawk posing benevolently and nobly as an Owl, but I think that was pretty clear already. Also to tell you what you need to know about our valiant subterfuge-that it was I who was guarded, and that Glirdan was guarded after that-giving new hope to Mith. Mith, your "extra" dream is up to your own discretion once more.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry to be so slow but I have spent too much time defending myself and looking at others .. I am now freaked out by Morm's plan in post 30... only another 300 posts to review.....

[mormegil]

Ang I readily admit I make mistakes. Asking Mith to not dream of me may be one of them but as I saw it I was likely to die but if I didn't chances were that I would die today, remember at the time there weren't many other suspects. I know I'm innocent and I was hoping to impress upon Mith sufficiently to trust me. I think Kath is the most likely Duck. Also remember Ang at the time Mith selected you for her dream noboby expect one, knew you were innocent. In my book her dream was a good one as my fears of you are now allayed.

[Mithalwen]

Ang , mein Engel, if we have discounted my theory, I am bugged also by Diamond's secret. But we must focus on the duck..brain hurts .. surely DR Who must have finished..

[Anguirel]

The Duck-knowing I was protected on the first night-would probably suspect I was the Hawk. Thus the Duck would know me to be a most unprofitable dream.

Sadly this deducktion, ho ho, doesn't lead me much closer to whether or not you are the Duck, morm, though you did advocate Mith dreaming of me. As an innocent you might well have done the same.

[Lote22]

I still am suspicious of Mith and still believe that Glirdan is the owl. I think that because Mith acted more defensive and more Duck like then Glirdan, even before they revealed themselves. She was very snappy and defensive, he acted fairly normal. I don't think that I'll change my mind about this and I've made my decision on who to vote for.

++Mithalwen

[Anguirel]

Besides, there's so many cases against me, all of which are completey valid, that I really see no hope in me being able to get out of it.

Come now, men and women of Ducktapia. Does this sound to you like a wise Owl? Or a Goose in a rut?

[Mithalwen]

I was more attacked - of course I would be more defensive! How is laying into a known duck and being roundly attacked for my pains duckish?

So good of you to give me a chance to answer your questions.... :rolleyes: If it hadn't been for your Nilp Vote... I would suspect you.. but at least you are consistent. So I think you merely misguided.

[Kath]

Now you bring up a great point about Kath and that has been unsettling to me since it happened. Why wouldn't she help to lynch Spawn? You stated that if I'm innocent she looks a lot worse off, well being that I know I am innocent I agree that she is far more guilty looking now.
I'm afraid my answer to this will be rather simplistic. I had spent the Day trusting Mith after her revelation. I popped back on intending simply to vote and go again, and upon my return find another revelation and a lot of confusion. By this time I was very tired (I'm still not totally better) and just couldn't cope with all the new information. At the time, stupid as it may sound, I just didn't get what was being said. I still trusted Mith over Glirdan, therefore I decided to stick with my original vote and just hope it didn't screw things up too much.

[Kath]

If it hadn't been for your Nilp Vote... I would suspect you.. but at least you are consistent. So I think you merely misguided.
I think Lote is merely an inexperienced newbie. It served us well on Day 1. Let's give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

[Mithalwen]

I am quite keen still to vote for Jenny. Far too quiet and she has been around ..... But I haven't forgiven her for her comments about me so you might regard that as personal... But I can't stay much longer.

I will say if you bear with me, I will do my best with my dream if you can keep me alive tonight. But do try and get the a duck, you folks who have many more hours...

[Mithalwen]

I think Lote is merely an inexperienced newbie. It served us well on Day 1. Let's give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

Yes Kath she is low priority - and I guess she knows Glirdan - and that sort of stuff can affect you I know...

[Mithalwen]

OK Guys.. I am going now... I would have liked to have heard the views of the other known innocents before voting. I have told the truth and everything I know or suspect. I am not as up on all the details of other people as I would like becasue of the amount of time I have had to spend on defence - others will be better guides for voting probably. I have found Jenny Hallu suspicious as well as unnecessarily offensive in her rather inaccurate analysis of me. So I may be wrong but ..... without Sleepy and Roa she is my top suspect ..I am unsure of morm but since I must give one the benefit of the doubt, I will go with the person who at least showed me some respect.

++JennyHallu

[Anguirel]

I endorse Mith's choice of Jenny-alas for my swift vote. It seems a sensible and likely compromise.

[Cailín]

Sorry for not posting anything so far. I hope most of you read that I'm replacing Cailin for today as she couldn't make it, so please bear with me :rolleyes: ..

I'm more inclined to trust Mithalwen at this point then Glirdan, she made some good points. Besides I think Glirdan made it quite obvious he's not the Owl by saying:
Besides, there's so many cases against me, all of which are completey valid, that I really see no hope in me being able to get out of it.

I'm going for now, not feeling too well so I'll have to vote now.

++JennyHallu

I'm sorry I couldn't hear her defend herself but she decided to trust Glirdan and attacked Mithalwen so that made her suspicious for me.

Again, I hoped to be a bit more part of the discussion but I'm feeling rather sickly at the moment :( .

[Nogrod]

I don't like the idea of lynching Glirdan tonight - as we still have some doubts in this Owl-thing. I'm all for believing Mith, but still. I think it's best, if both of them are alive tomorrow. The nightingale should protect Mith, that's for sure - I think.

What comes to the dream, I would like to find Morm out. I've been suspecting him from the first stage of day2 onwards. But my suspicions are lightly grounded, and he would be an asset, if proven innocent.

That leaves us the question about the lynch of this evening. It would be nice to not be forced to lynch anyone just now, but the rules demand us a lynch.

Jenny seems to be gathering some votes. I would be the first to suspect her in normal situations, but now, she has played so abnormally, that I don't know, what to make it.

I'll have to go back to all these posts in here and come out again. And sorry, I have been quite subdued today, but that's RL (a day with my children - even a WW-game can't surpass being with them... ;) ).

[mormegil]

As I stated earlier I would like to hear from JennyHallu prior to voting for her, my guess is that she is our last Duck and is hoping that by being silent today we 'forget' about her. I will vote for her if she does not show up but I would like to hear from her.

Mith, if you must dream of me, dream away, but if my two cents is desired I would say dream of Kath.

[Nogrod]

Surely, there is a possibility of Mith being the last duck. Then we would have been misguided guite nicely by her! If she is a duck, she would know the innocents, and then by revealing Spm, me & Ang would gain credibility in our eyes - and hope that we would then persuade others to believe her innocence... That's a scenario worth noting. Even though I understand her (possible) distress yesterday (noting the probable similarities you face as being a duck or an owl), and the situation with time-zones etc.

So Mith is either a duck or an owl? Otherwise she couldn't have hit the innocent-revealments right (as I believe, she did - knowing mine, and believing stronly the cases of Spm & Ang).

But how about Glirdy? If he is the owl or a goose, our lynch wouldn't tell that. It would only show his duckness / nonduckness. That's why I think we should have them both around tomorrow - with their claims of a dream both (maybe Glirdy now has time to dream? :rolleyes: ). That means not indefinitively. We might have a situation, where lynching one of them would be wise (remember the case Spawn - no-one I think really believed her to be a duck after all, but it was a good case to test the different claims).

So tonight's lynch? I'll try to have some grounded opinions in an instant - but can't promise, I can deliver that promise.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm

[mormegil]

No we shouldn't lynch either, while there is still exist a possibilty, even though it may be slight, that one or the other is an owl. The Ducks, most likely, will kill them when the time comes but we are in the business of Duck hunting. We really should focus on those whom look most supicious, that includes me obviously. Anybody who is not a known innocent is a potential lynch candidate with the exception of, Glirdan and Mith.

[Kath]

Ok, let me try and have a think about this.

1) Mith is the real Owl and Glirdan is the Goose - therefore we must assume Nogrod, Ang and SPM are innocent.

2) Glirdan is the real Owl and Mith is the Goose - therefore we assume SPM is innocent.

3) Neither is the Owl, one is the Goose and one an innocent - therefore no one has been proved innocent.

The most likely of these (to me) is the first one.

This means that the list of knowns is:
SPM
Nogrod
Ang
Mith

Unknowns:
Glirdan (Goose, Duck or innocent?)
morm
Valier
Kath
Cailin
Lote
Jenny

Out of that list I personally consider Lote innocent, because of that newbie vote for Nilp the first Day. Her vote for Mith toDay is a little disconcerting but I still think benefit of the doubt status should be given.

The one I want to know about the most is morm. This is not unusual for me, and I would rather it be done via a dream than a lynch as if he is innocent he could be a great help in future Days. However, as of this moment I am not suspicious enough of anyone else (except Glirdan) to consider voting for them, and so my vote will most likely go to morm toDay.

I agree though with not trying to lynch either Glirdan or Mith toDay. We can't risk losing the real Owl when they still have this chance to dream.

[Nogrod]

No we shouldn't lynch either, while there is still exist a possibilty, even though it may be slight, that one or the other is an owl. The Ducks, most likely, will kill them when the time comes but we are in the business of Duck hunting. We really should focus on those whom look most supicious, that includes me obviously. Anybody who is not a known innocent is a potential lynch candidate with the exception of, Glirdan and Mith.

I don't see, how you can disagree with me by being of the same opinion? :rolleyes:

But here is something I have picked up...

So who do we have in the village by now?

Mithalwen – self-revealed Owl
Anguirel – innocent by Mith
Nogrod – innocent by Mith
Saucepan Man – innocent by both Mith and Glirdy

Glirdan – self-revealed Owl (revealing Duck-Spawn)

Mormegil - unknown
Valier - unknown
Kath - unknown
”Non-Cailín” - unknown
Lote22 – unknown
JennyHallu – unknown

As I said earlier, I would like to see Morm as our dream, and Mith as the protected one. That’s of course the choice of the gifteds.

And the tally?

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)

[Nogrod]

Of the unknowns in my list, I could be suspecting all of them...

But,

I will not vote Morm, as I think he should be given a chance with a dream (my "case" against him is light, and could be just an altruistic villager talk).

Kath I have not looked very closely during the game (it's my own fault), but for now, I'm granting her the benefit of doubt. Nothing that would rise the "red flags" there.

Jenny I'm always suspicious of - and that's to do with our mutual history. Now she plays a very odd game - but I have seen her twice as a wolf too. So I can't make any conclusion based on that.

That leaves:

Valier: The enigma. Has posted something and had reason in her posting - mostly. She would have to be analyzed, but at least I'm not going to be the one today (it's coming 3AM, and I'll be to sleep in a minute).

Lote: She hasn't posted much to take a hold to. And as she is a newbie, I wouldn't make so much of it. Anyhow, her vote today for Mith was an eyebrow-raising thing. We can speculate of things going on behind the screen - and I don't like to count my vote on that either. But still: that was not an easy vote to interpret.

Cailin: Reasonable play all the time. But why she didn't just tell us, that she will be away for a couple of days? Taking a substitute might tell us of either a good-hearted villager, or a duck, not wishing to leave her post...

[Kath]

Alright, I have to go now so:

++MORM

Due to my earlier reasoning.

[Nogrod]

Kath: you made just a move that takes you up on the ladder of my suspicions... But anyhow. I will go for:

++ Lote22

Her vote for Mith is - if not duckish - at least geesy. And I know, I'm having a very wavering argument here (as we have rivalling Owls here, and so geesiness would be the only factor explaining the other one).

But by now, this is what I can come to. Lote is the only person from my unknown list, I have a reason to back my vote with.

[Nogrod]

So here we are.

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)
Kath --> Morm (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2)
Nogrod --> Lote22 (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2, Lote1)

Good night to all of you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, Doctor Who lasted longer than expected …

Actually, the truth is I like to spend my Saturday evenings with Mrs Saucepan-Orc. So I am only just back and up to speed.

My earlier main suspects were Jenny and morm. Jenny has not yet put in an appearance. Morm has, although mainly just to defend himself.

When I was asking Mith to not dream of me, I was talking to Mith and asking her to trust me. Seemingly she did as I trust her.Of course you were talking to Mith. And, if you are a Duck (and she is the Owl), you had good reason to gain her trust and to ask her not to dream of you.

As for morm’s reactions to the Mith and Glirdan revelations, we all had good reason to pause and think and maybe to believe one and then the other. But his views on this issue seem to have followed village opinion rather too closely for my liking.

Trusting Ang, as I do (his instincts as well as his proven innocence and revealed Hawkishness), his regret over his vote gives me pause for thought over morm. I think, however, that this was largely a result of morm’s accusations of pride and foolishness. To the extent that it was anything said by morm in his defence, it must have been this:

Some people seem to remember that Spawn was on my me like stink on a monkey and while this could be a good tactic to be used, why would she go after me so fervently so soon with her numbers being already reduced? It was very apparant that I was the favorite candidate for lynching yesterday.Well, I looked back and, while there was some suspicion of morm prior to spawn’s vote, it could hardly be described as making him the favourite for the lynching. Anguirel thought him a Duck. I was fairly suspicious. And Nogrod and Cailin both expressed some mild suspicion. As some have noted today, morm is generally one of those who is unlikely to attract votes unless people are very suspicious of him. He was by no means favourite to be lynched yesterday at the time spawn voted. Quite the opposite. I can well imagine her voting for a fellow Duck at that point, particularly as she was not to know that she would be later "revealed" and lynched.

Mith, if you must dream of me, dream away, but if my two cents is desired I would say dream of Kath.Here, morm is still trying to dissuade the Owl from dreaming of him, albeit more subtely than before.

I strongly suspected morm earlier. If anything, his contributions since have heightened that suspicion. Primarily because they have been directed mainly towards defending himself rather than finding a Duck. He throws suspicion Kath’s way, but provides nothing to justify that suspicion - other than my earlier comment that, if he’s innocent, Kath would look suspicious for her vote for him following Glirdan’s revelation. Yet, he now claims to put more faith in Mith than in Glirdan, so I am not sure how that can cout too much against Kath.

It's late and I must vote.

+ + MORMEGIL

Goodnight all. I hope to see you tomorrow.

[mormegil]

Let me see if I can do a decent analysis of Jenny

Post 60

Simply checks in and comments on Valier calling this a loud village. Says Roa is not as cautious as normal and this speaks highly of her as normally she'd be cautious. Noggy is at his old game and therefore thinks he's innocent.

Post 84

Checking in again apologizes for silence but she should be able to talk now, says she's caught up on the reading but doesn't really post anything else.

Post 100


Does some thoughts on each player:

DSoU: She's only posted twice today, so don't expect to see a lot here. She had some confusion as to the rules that's been picked up on as a reason for vote. This makes little sense to me. I'd like to hear more from Spawn, but I don't think her question says anything towards her quackiness.

Nilp: Voted for himself...seems to be standard operating procedure. Withholding judgment (or any sort of opinion, really) until tomorrow.

I wanted to include these two quotes as they are about our two known ducks. She seems to cover her bases on both of them being moderately neutral which always is suspicous to me.

Post 105

Suspects Roa, Mith, and Sleepy all who are known innocents, not that it means anything but it is noteworthy.

Post 107

Jokes with me about going to my grandma's house and decides to give Nogrod the benefit of the doubt.

Post 111

She attacks Roa for being the one inciting Nogrod and using it as a means to find him suspicious.

Post 114

I am pretty unsure where my vote is going to go, though, and I don't really want to widen the vote any further. I think I'm going to go with...

(removed plus symbols) Sleepy. I don't think we can afford to get rid of Nilp day 1. The suicide thing is odd, but normal. I'd like to stay out of the whole Sleepy/Nilp thing, but not if I have to leave 2 hours before sundown. I'll see how things look tomorrow.

A very interesting statement and it could go either way as to the meaning but with prior evidence it appears Ducky to me.

Post 293

Mainly asserts her belief that Glirdan is the true owl and Mith is the goose. Thinks that I am guilty and that my goose/owl talk were instructions. She does vote for Spawn at this time, but she perhaps truly believed that Glirdan was the owl because he 'knew' Spawn was the Duck as did she.

Post 294

Apologizes for sounding testy

Post 301

Outlines her suspicions but forgets Lalaith and Spawn at a minimum but doesn't really say much of any great significance. She does say, however, that she still thinks Glirdan is the owl. I can see that if she believes Glirdan to be the owl why she would forgo talking about Spawn but Lalaith is noteworthy.

Post 328

Says in the confusion yesterday that she missed Glirdan dreamt of SpM.


Well what to make of it all? Why there is no conclusive evidence there is a lot of substantial points that point to possible guilt. I will try to get to Kath but I'm pretty sure that I won't get to it today.

Cross posted with SpM

[mormegil]

Well I'm certain now that I won't get to Kath as she has 28 posts.

++JennyHallu

She seems guilty after my analysis I feel comfortable enough and I don't know if she'll turn up in the next hour; I tried to wait but I cannot wait any longer.

[Valier]

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)
Kath --> Morm (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2)
Nogrod --> Lote22 (Morm2, Mith1,Jenny2,lote1)
Sauce-->Mormegil (Morm3, Mith1, Jenny2, Lote1)
Mormegil-->Jenny (Morm3, Mith1, Jenny3,Lote1)

Well this is spread out......I am thoroughly confused and a little hard done by, all this stuff about two Owls I don't think is quite fair...but if DiamondGoddess says ok then whatever......(As she looks down on us, her Lab rats..Bwahaha) So I still feel inclined to vote for Mith, then we still have Glirdan the "Owl" left...hopefully he can be protected and get a dream in.....Or the other way round, but didn't the Nightinggale protect Mith last night? If so then I think she should go, since we only need one Owl and she will more than likely get nabbed by the duck tonight if she is the Owl, then we can see her identity....

.AAAAHHHHH I am confusing myself!!!....Ok I will take a little longer to think, then I will vote.:confused:

[Valier]

Alright since no one seems to be around...I have thought about it and I won't vote for Mith today. Out of the other votees today Jenny has been acting the most strange and is higher up on my suspect list.


++JennyHallu

Please both our mysterious Owls pick good choices, we need to catch the last Duck and end this madness!

[Diamond18]

Well it's deadline time. Ish. It may take me a while to get the death up. But I will eventually.

Oh yeah -- Jenny and Glirdan did not vote.

[JennyHallu]

I am so sorry I am late!

We had car trouble and I honestly haven't been here!

++Mormegil

[Diamond18]

I'll count your vote, Jenny, but it won't change anything, since you and Morm are now tied and you reached 4 votes first. Not sure Glirdan is going to show.

[Glirdan]

Well, I don't see how my vote would really count much anyway because it wouldn't be for either of them, I can tell you that much. So there's no point. Continue on Diamond.

[Diamond18]

Soon after Roa Aoife departed for the south, the villagers’ discussions were interrupted yet again by a strange sight.

A little, squat, dome-shaped robot rolled into the village square, beeping and booping as it came. It stopped and swiveled its head as if looking over the villagers. Then, with an excited chirp it rolled up to Sleepy Ranger. Suddenly, a shivering, staticy image of a woman in a long flowing white dress appeared. “Help me Sleepy-Wan Rangeobi, you’re my only hope!” she said. “Help me Sleepy-Wan Rangeobi, you’re my only hope!” she said again. And again. And again. And again. Frankly, it got rather tiring, and one villager suggested giving it a smack to see if it could be unstuck. At this suggestion, the little droid squealed indignantly and shut the hologram off.

“I’m sorry, villagers,” Sleepy said, “but I must answer the summons of the Princess. Good luck with your duck problem!”

And with that, he jumped into his hover-mobile (or whatever the kids are calling it these days) and he and the droid departed for parts unknown.

~~~~~~~~~

The villagers decided that day to kill JennyHallu. Jenny didn’t seem to mind, or at least, couldn’t be bothered to show up and defend herself. So the villagers decided to take death to Jenny, and made the long, arduous trek up the mountain to her hut. They climbed, and climbed, and climbed, and stopped briefly to frolic with mountain goats, then climbed some more. Or did they clumb? At any rate, they arrived at her hut in the evening, brandishing pitchforks and torches.

“Come out come out whatever you are!” cried Mithalwen.

“Oooom. Who’s afraid of the big bad duck?” called Jenny from inside the hut.

“Not me!” declared Not-Cailín. “I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house down!”

“We know what you are!” said Mormegil. “Come out and defend yourself!”

“Not by the hairs on my chinny-chin-chin,” laughed Jenny.

Valier bristled. “Imposter, I’m the only one here with hairs on my chinny chin chin!” And with that, she led the assault on Jenny’s door. Being a hut door, it didn’t take long to pitchfork it down, and they found the halfing guru seated in the lotus-position with a serene smile on her face.

She opened one eye and with a knowing smile, said,

“I have two ducks, one blue, one black.
And when the blue duck goes "Quack Quack"
The black duck quickly "Quack Quack"'s back!

So...while the blue duck's a quicker quacker,
The black is a quicker quacker backer!”

“What the....?” said Morm.

“It’s some kind of riddle,” mused Mithalwen.

“Pertaining to ducks,” agreed Not-Cailín.

Valier however was not be distracted, and grabbed Jenny by the sackcloth as she was trying to sneak out the door. “I’ll riddle you!” the dwarven millet-picker cried, and proceeded to stab her repeatedly with her pitchfork. The others, cheered by the blood that squirted from the guru, joined in and soon they had reduced Jenny to a bloody... feathery... pulp.

“Ha! She was the Wereduck!” declared Mormegil smugly. “And... I’ve got goop on my frock...”

“That’s it?” said not-Cailín. “We’ve won?”

“I think so,” replied Mithalwen. “There lies a dead duck, and there are two dead ducks down in the village, and while the blue duck’s a quicker quacker... blast now I can’t get that rhyme out of my head.”

“Well if we’ve won, why don’t I feel this doom lifting from my stout dwarven shoulders?” wondered Valier.

And lo! a voice from the heavens spoke unto them. It was the voice of the Moddess Goddess, filtering down through the clouds like particles of dirt small enough to get through even the best water filtration system.

“Hark unto me, my lab-ra... I mean, my children,” she said, “for your task is not done. Hark! I just like saying that! Anyway, hark (ha!) unto my words, for on the Second Day, when you awoke to find no dead among you, it was not a joyous morn as you so naïvely thought. For the Nightingale did not prevail the previous Night -- the Ducks took a life but did not squish it like a grubby little bug. Nay -- for this villager was cursed and the Ducks took that life and made it their own. Using dark, ducky arts, they created another of their kind. From that Night forward, the once innocent villager looked like a duck, walked like a duck, and killed like a Wereduck. Your task is not done, your village is not rid of the pestilence. One Duck still lives.”

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but departed with a droid on Day 3
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru ~ Wereduck ~ Pitchforked to death on Day 3

~ The Living ~

Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher
Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker
Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker

[Diamond18]

Night 4

Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder was up late that night, herding trees. Naturally. Suddenly, he heard a strange sound. It sounded like... quacking. Yes. Loud, raucous, angry quacking. Stranger yet, it was followed by the screech of a hawk. He looked up into the night air, wrinkling his Entish brow, and in the moonlight saw a strange sight.

Awful lot of strangeness going on here, I know.

Anyway, he saw two birds doing battle in the sky above, silhouetted by the full moon. “Papageno! Papageno!” cried the Hawk.

“Quack quack quack!” quacked the duck, predictably.

They circled each other, diving in and out, beating at each other with their wings and gnashing their beaks. (Though the Duck had a bill. Don’t trouble yourself with the details.) Glirdan watched the fight in fascination. He saw, to his vast surprise, the Duck pull an M16 assault rifle from its feathers, and aim the barrel at the Hawk. A hale of bullets spit forth in rapid succession, riddling the Hawk with lead.

The Hawk fell to the ground, and changed into a man. Anguirel the baritone bird catcher staggered to his feet, bleeding from multiple bullet wounds. He eyed Glirdan with malice, and dragged his broken body over to the Ent. He held forth one trembling arm, and attempted to flick on a cigarette lighter. Alas, his weakened thumb slipped and nothing happened.

Glirdan, seeing his intent, turned to flee. But, being an Ent, he moved very slowly, and Anguirel staggered after him for a few yards, flicking as he went, in an edge of your seat slow motion chase. “Hold up,” the dying Hawk wheezed, “I’ve almost got it....”

“Destroyer and usurper, curse you!” Glirdan cried, and giving up on his flight turned to stomp Anguirel into the ground.

But just as he did so, the lighter flared to life and his woody limbs caught. Anguirel watched in satisfaction as fire licked its way up the Ent’s body. Glirdan screamed in agony as the flames ate away at his flesh, and he fell to his knees as his eyeballs make icky popping noises and oozed from their sockets, mingling with his melting lips. As the life escaped him and his body blackened, Anguirel also dripped his last drop of blood, and they fell dead side by side.

The Wereduck flew away, laughing to itself.

~~~~~~~~~

Day 4

The villagers found the charred remains of Glirdan and the holey body of Anguirel the next day. The bugs had already gotten to the corpses, and the flies and termites were having a grand feast. The villagers turned away and relieved themselves of their breakfast. Then the talk of vengeance began anew.

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but departed with a droid on Day 3
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru ~ Wereduck ~ Pitchforked to death on Day 3
Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher ~ Hawk ~ Gunned down with an M16 on Night 4
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder ~ Villager ~ Consumed by flames from the Hawk’s cigarette lighter on Night 4

~ The Living ~

Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker
Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker

[mormegil]

Voting from yesterday

Ang voted Morm (Morm 1)
Lote voted Mith (Morm 1, Mith 1)
Mith voted Jenny (Morm 1, Jenny 1, Mith 1)
Cailin voted Jenny (Morm 1, Jenny 2, Mith 1)
Kath voted Morm (Morm 2, Jenny 2, Mith 1)
Nogrod voted Lote (Morm 2, Jenny 2, Mith 1, Lote 1)
SpM voted Morm (Morm 3, Jenny 2, Mith 1, Lote 1)
Morm voted Jenny (Morm 3, Jenny 3, Mith 1, Lote 1)
Valier voted Jenny (Morm 3, Jenny 4, Mith 1, Lote 1)
Jenny voted Morm (Morm 4, Jenny 4, Mith 1, Lote 1)

Glirdan did not vote.

Right now I will trust any and all who voted for Jenny yesterday so Mith (obviously) Cailin, to a degree, and Valier almost 100%. Mith who did you dream of the first night? The reason I ask is that we don't know who the fourth duck is. It may have been Jenny or Spawn but there is a chance that it was the first person you dreamt of. I can't remember if it was Spm or Nogrod. And of whom did you dream last night, as it's most likely your last night. Both Kath and SpM look bad to me as they tied me back up with or put me ahead of Jenny. Now if Saucie was your second night dream then he's innocent and I won't question him. I am looking squarely at Kath. Nogrod's vote was interesting and if he was your first night I don't trust him. Lote was odd but being a newbie I'll forgive it.

[Nogrod]

Firstly. Let's hope Ang took the goose away... for if not, then Mith is the one to look.

Secondly (to my small disappointment), Mith told she dreamed of me the first night (#192) and of Sauce the second (#188). So then Spm should be provenly innocent - if the rules go the straight way (someone turning to a duck the same night as the dream is had should be revealed with that changed identity, I quess?). So I'm a dreamed of innocent - but there is a possibility (1/14), that my role was changed in NIGHT2. I know, that I haven't changed, but naturally its up to you to believe it or not.

Thirdly: I'm not sure, whether voting Jenny is a proof to anyone's innocence. I found Jenny playing weirdly, and I tend to suspect her, whenever she plays, but I still think we were more lucky with her, than skilful.

As to my vote for Lote, I stated my point already in the vote. It's always nice to hear voting interestingly...

[Kath]

So if Nogrod was Mith's first dream then he might not be an innocent anymore yes? Which puts our list back to:

Known:
Mith
SPM

Unknown:
morm
Valier
Nogrod
Kath
Cailín
Lote

However, we are at least rid of the confusion that was Glirdan! Question though, is it possible that neither he nor Mith is/was the Goose? Could Glirdan have decided to 'reveal himself' on the grounds that he thought Mith was the Goose? It sounds a little farfetched I know, I'm just trying to work out if it's a possibility because of course we don't know that Glirdan was the Goose, and I don't know if I can cope with all that confusion again!

[mormegil]

Thirdly: I'm not sure, whether voting Jenny is a proof to anyone's innocence. I found Jenny playing weirdly, and I tend to suspect her, whenever she plays, but I still think we were more lucky with her, than skilful.

I agree but I think it lends credence to the arguement and it's odd that you don't think it has any effect. Look at the facts of the matter. Valier's votes have been fairly non-duckish. Cailin I don't believe is the duck, this is currently and may change. Mith obviously isn't and I know I am. I don't expect anybody to do a detailed anaylsis of Nogrod as he has over 60 posts but I would like to look at his voting pattern.

Plus where is everybody?

[The Saucepan Man]

I’m here! Sorry I’m late.

I was pretty much convinced yesterday that Mith was the Owl and Glirdan was the Goose. That appears to have been borne out by the Night’s events so, unless anything happens to indicate the contrary, I am going to continue working on that basis.

And on that basis, we currently have two known innocents: Mith and myself. We should be able to add another to that list when Mith arrives, assuming that she did not dream of Glirdan.

I am not prepared wholly to discount those who voted for Jenny. Precisely because it suggests their innocence so strongly, any of those votes could have been a Duck-on-Duck vote, calculated to establish credibility, possibly for the remainder of the game. Even Valier’s vote does not establish her innocence, because, for a Duck to vote for morm (a useful villager, if innocent) at that stage would have made her look suspicious. And it would probably have condemned her as and when Jenny was subsequently lynched and found to be guilty.

I remain suspicious of morm too. At the time he voted, it was likely to be either he or Jenny that was lynched. What better time for a duck-on-Duck vote? One of them was almost certain to die. With them both voting for each other, whichever survived would gain great credibility.

Of the non-Jenny voters, Lote, Kath and Nogrod remain unknowns.

I would like to go back and review Nogrod’s contributions post-Day 1, but I can recall nothing that made me question his innocence. Then again, after Mith’s declaration, I was working on the basis that he was a known innocent, and so it is possible that I missed something.

I can’t see that Kath’s vote for morm in itself indicates guilt. Morm was looking very suspicious to me yesterday (and, as I have noted, he still does), so I think it was a reasonable vote. However, combined with her vote from the day before, she is looking suspicious if morm is innocent.

Lote’s vote for Mith I find exceedingly suspicious. Mith is now proven almost certainly to be the Owl. A Duck, suspecting this to be the case, may well have been looking to steer the village towards voting for her, using Glirdan’s (Goosey) declaration to paint her claim as false. Remember that, the day before, Jenny was strongly in favour of believing Glirdan rather than Mith. Perhaps it was the Ducks’ strategy to try to get Mith lynched yesterday and hope to hide their own vote or votes among others’ votes for her. I wonder whether we have been overlooking Lote too much by virtue of her “Newbie” status?

Back later with more thoughts, once I have had an opportunity to review everything once more.

[mormegil]

SpM I fail to see what makes me so suspicous.

A question for D18, if the person who changed to a Duck on night 2 was dreamt of on night 2 what would happen?

[Diamond18]

It depends. I answer dreams as soon as I get them. So, if the dream came before the Ducks selected their kill, the dreamed of would come up innocent. If after the change, Ducky. But I'm not going to tell you which it was, because that would be narrowing down your suspect list for you, wouldn't it?

[The Saucepan Man]

SpM I fail to see what makes me so suspicous.I explained why in my previous post. There are a number of villagers that I find suspicious. I'm hoping that further contributions (especially from Mith) might help in narrowing things down.

The Orclings are calling, so I must go now. I'll be back later and hopefully will have had an opportunity to look back over the last few days then.

[Kath]

Oh morm . . .

Mith obviously isn't and I know I am.
Typo? Or guilty little secret popping out?

SPM, about Lote. I can see that her votes would make her look suspicious, but I just don't think that she is. The 'newbie act' is genuine I think.

My suspicions of morm remain. I don't like that he seems to have given himself 'known' innocent status, therefore meaning anyone who votes for him should immediately be suspected. He is not a known innocent by any means, so this reasoning does not fit. Asking Mith to trust him and not dream of him I also found suspicious, as with Valier, because it is a pretty good cover for a Duck as well as just weird. Why ask not to be dreamt of? Why not ask for the Owl to dream of you? Then you'd be a known innocent. Ok you're more in danger of dying, but having it as fact is still more useful.

Anyone know where Mith is by the way? It would be useful to know who she dreamt of.

[mormegil]

Your answer is adequate and sadly I cannot discount the possibility that our dear SpM is a Duck. Mith, do you remember at which time you dreamt of SpM? Early or late?

[Mithalwen]

Hi ..sorry I am late but I spent about 6 hours revising everything yesterday and had to put my house in order.

I dreamt of Valier. She is innocent. I tried to clarify the situation with Diamond but the upshot is that I can not be certain of either my first 2 nights dreams.

I want to read now but my conclusions are that the ducks we have caught are almost certainly the originals and the reaminder the first nights kill. This makes me suspect Lote and Nogrod more htan before.

Given we have an extra duck I also think it possible that Glirdan was wha he said he was in which case Poor Ang was misguided. But that is a possibility.

I dreamt of Valier because Ang said he was hunting her. Her clinching vote for Jenny seemed persuasive but I wanted to be sure.

More soon..just want to catch up. T

[mormegil]

I don't like that he seems to have given himself 'known' innocent status

No I've only said that I know I am innocent, which I do.

therefore meaning anyone who votes for him should immediately be suspected

I do suspect those who didn't vote for our Duck yesterday and appeared to be trying to save her.

Why ask not to be dreamt of? Why not ask for the Owl to dream of you?

Because there are others I would like to know about. You for example. Again I know I am innocent and I think Mith would be better off not wasting a dream about on me. I do not fear death but I think her dreams are better elsewhere, I gave my opinion like so many others and she by no means had to listen to me.

[Mithalwen]

I think would have sent my dream about 7 or 8pm BST. I don't think that helps but despite our sparring or perhaps because of it, I think SpM was, for once an unlikely , first night target. He and Spawn were seeming to be singing from the same hymn sheet. I think he was too useful alive at that stage and of course everyone suspects Saucey more the longer he stays alive since everyone assumes the beasts will want him gone. I will look foolish if he does proive to be the final duck, but I think his trust in me speaks in his favour..sinceI know it is well placed.... .

I feel less dubious of Morm since Ang's death. I did n't dream of him becasue I thought he was Ang's likely target. I think it would have been a huge risk for a Duckish Morm to attack a known hawk, whose prime suspect he seemed to be.

CAilin and Kath have never figured highly on my suspects lists - they seem to be playing a "straight" game - obviously no one can be discounted completely other than Valier and myself.

Lote and Nogrod are now my main suspects followed by Morm Kath and Cailin.

I had hoped for a little more from Nogrod somehow.. but, I do think Lote needs to be looked at which is a nuisance because she has posted so little.

I said, that a good first kill for werebeasts is a quiet one since they leave few traces. IF, and it is a big IF, that was the ducks tactic then Lote is a very likely candidate. She posted once (I think) on day one and manged to bag a beast. It is quite plausible that made her look owlish even.

Anyone out there?

[Mithalwen]

I don't think we were that lucky with Jenny.... We are so used to thinking that no duck will defend another but Jenny defended both Spawn and Nilp.

I guess I am self obsessed but having reread everything (albeit knowing the tone of voice I intended), I wasn't as "crazed" (grrrrrrrrrrrrrr) and emotional as I was made out to be. You might not have agreed with my reasoning but it wasn't irrational. I genuinely found Spawn's querying of the rules odd and Jenny really overreacted to my aside that she had believed me when I was a wolf...

Apart from residual resentment, I also found it suspicious that she had managed to post, albeit briefly on other threads but not even check in here.

I wasn't the only one to find her guilty seeming. This by the way is my reasoning for thinking her an "ab initio" duck.

[Mithalwen]

Oh Ang - why did you have to hunt Glirdan .. he would have been taken by modfire anyway *wails , gnashes teeth*?

[Valier]

Ok so now the list shortens again...

Known Innocents

Valier
SPM
Mithalwen


Unknowns

Nogrod
Mormegil
Kath
Cailin
Lote22

I think it possible that the Ducks choose Jenny on the second night and she was turned, she would have made a good kill for them since she was not well suspected by the village. This would leave one of the original Ducks left.

Or it could be one Mith dreamt of earlier...

I think either Kath or Mormegil is the remaining Duck

I will read through the posts and see what I can come up with.... I will be back in a bit:)

[Mithalwen]

Well it is opinion but I suspect that it is the cursed we have left.... but.... could you expalin why Kath.


Thanks for being here!!!! I am glad to have someone certain around particularly... means can speak openly without fear or favour!!!

Cailin I susoect least .. but ... I can't quite say why....

[Mithalwen]

Actually the key to the whole thing is who would the ducks kill on Day 1....

We know that Nilp and one of JennyHallu and Spawn was. If not both then which was the cursed? That also means that we are probably looking for a "fly under the radar" duck if it is one of the original 3 who survives. I will go back to Day 1 - once again.....

[Valier]

I'm not quite certain as to why Kath yet.....She seems to be just out of eye's view...I don't know if that makes any sense:rolleyes: I will read her posts again and see if anything stands out, but again I have a hard time coming up with concrete evidence as to why I find people guilty. Jenny was the only one that even remotely surprised me...I thought for sure she was to be found an Ordo....

[Mithalwen]

Well I was far from certain ...it was just the culmination of little things that kept her at the top of the tree.... so it was a good call of yours btw -kudos!

[mormegil]

Let me give a brief run down of Kath's votes.

Day 1 she voted Sleepy to tie him with Nilp at 2 a piece.

Day 2 she voted Morm and put me up 4 to 2 against Spawn and this was after Glirdan's 'revelation'

Day 3 she again voted Morm to tie me with Jenny.

For somebody who claims to be innocent she sure seems to be helping the Ducks out. The goose wouldn't know to whom to help. I know what will be argued, that nobody knows if I am guilty or innocent though if I am innocent Kath looks awfully suspicious, well I say if you don't want to kill Kath today, kill me then Kath tomorrow when it's shown I am innocent.

If I do die today please don't discount the possibility that SpM might be a Duck. I doubt it is the case but the possibility exists. I would hate to see three people left and SpM be one of them and the remaining villagers don't look at him because he's a known innocent. Again I'm by no means advocating killing him at this point just please don't forget this if it comes to that point at the end.

[Mithalwen]

Actually Morm.... I am not likely to vote for you today because I think that you were the prime candidate for both my dream and Ang's victim - unless I read yesterday completely wrong. I am looking at Kath but I am far from discounting Nogrod and Lote if we have a cursed duck.....

[Valier]

Question? So how come Glirdan's role says innocent? Was he in fact the Goose? Diamond never mentioned anything about two Owls! Just the cursed villager, So was he a crazy Ordo or the Goose? and if the Goose, how come it says Ordo as his role after his death?

[mormegil]

Valier the only roles we see at death are the Ducks not goose or hawk, though he was obvious. But if the owl or nightingale die we will not see any thing but ordo.

[Mithalwen]

Question? So how come Glirdan's role says innocent? Was he in fact the Goose? Diamond never mentioned anything about two Owls! Just the cursed villager, So was he a crazy Ordo or the Goose? and if the Goose, how come it says Ordo as his role after his death?


I think that we do not know any of hte roles after death. I think Ang's is given because it is the only way we get two deaths and he declared himself.

I do suspect that Glirdan was an owl since so much of his distress mirrored mine. But we have to cope with the situation we have which is not knowing.

I wonder if maybe the Nightingale mayhave pulled a brave bluff and not protected me last night? Not expecting a declaration but .... not impossible...

I am suspecting Kath a bit more as I read. Does occur that we should bear in mind that our ducks would have known about their extra and so maybe reactions to my suggestion of 2 owls should be examined? After all they may have either been the most dismissive (believing the cursed was it, or more receptive since they knew the situation was not as it seemed?

I am thinking aloud here becasue I am most likely tonights kill. Just things to consider .. I haven't reached that point in my read through

[Mithalwen]

Why is everyone so quiet.... ? I am so tired..if anyone is there speak!!! I must go soon and I shall not return before night .... please? Anyone..the silence is suspicious at least for hte europeans...

[The Saucepan Man]

If I do die today please don't discount the possibility that SpM might be a Duck.Regretfully, I must concede that, as far as the rest of you are concerned, it remains a possibility. There is little I can say to change this, but I can assure you that you will do better to look elsewhere for the remaining Duck.

So, we are left with two “known innocents”: Mith and Valier.

Having reread everything since the start, I have seen nothing to alter my original assessment that Cailín is most likely innocent. That, in itself concerns me, since she is a skilful player and would no doubt be adept at remaining hidden, if a Duck. But it’s not nearly enough to merit vote for her today.

Nogrod seemed genuine (if misguided) in his Day 1 attempt to provoke discussion of Owl strategy. But, there does seem to have been a perceptible change in his approach from Day 2 on. He moved away from discussing strategies and (seemingly) became much more helpful. At the time - I thought the change was for the better and it seemed to confirm his innocence. But now, a change in behaviour from Day 1 to Day 2 looks mighty suspicious. Like morm, he flip-flopped on the Mith/Glirdan revelations - possibly hedging his bets (not knowing which was the Goose and which the Owl)? If the Cursed Duck is the one who remains among us, he is a distinct possibility.

Lote voted for Nilp on Day 1 to put him ahead on two votes. But the Ducks may well have thought that Nilp would not attract enough votes to be lynched, as his traditional Day 1 approach is often overlooked as “Nilp just being Nilp”. A possible Duck-on-Duck vote, then. She believed Mith’s declaration (and followed Mith in voting for Roa). But then, after Glirdan’s declaration, she said she “had a bad feeling about Mith” in the first place” and was “not surprised she is lying”. These later statements very much mirror JennyHallu’s approach to the Day 2 revelations. Yesterday, she continued to believe Glirdan’s claim in preference to Mith’s and voted for Mith - possibly hoping to get Mith lynched? I am now very suspicious of Lote. She could be one of the original Ducks, or (in light of her Day 1 vote for Nilp) she might equally be the Cursed Duck.

I have seen nothing to suggest Duckishness on the part of Kath, other than her voting pattern as outlined by morm. Certainly, if morm is innocent, then Kath’s voting pattern does looks extremely suspicious.

I have already outlined (yesterday and today) why I find mormegil suspicious. Also, on re-reading everything, his defensiveness struck me. Not just yesterday. He has responded to every little suspicion voiced against him with careful reasoning. His suggestion that we might want to kill him today and then, when he is shown to be innocent (as he claims will be the case), kill Kath speaks in his favour. Yet, perhaps it is a ploy to make him look innocent. In any event, it is perhaps not such a bad plan …

So, a number of possible candidates for lynching. I am inclined to vote for Lote, as I currently find the case against her most compelling. However, there may be merit in a vote for morm, since it may either catch us a Duck or identify one in the form of Kath.

Back later with more thoughts and a vote.

[mormegil]

SpM I don't quite understand why 'flip-flopping', as you call it, on the Mith/Glirdan issue is such a big deal. I'm not sure if you were around at that time, I was, and it was incredibly confusing. I wouldn't call it hedging your bets but rather being open minded and willing to accept that either could be the owl or perhaps both. We are still uncertain as Mith pointed out. If only Glirdan had dreamt his last night we would know.

He has responded to every little suspicion voiced against him with careful reasoning.

Have I? I thought I merely found major points and set them straight. I feel like I've been one of the more analytical and helpful individuals here. I've been quoting and bringing up points about others and feel that my analysis of Nilp voters/nonvoters, Jenny, Kath and willingness to accept Glirdan as the owl seem to point to my innocence, but of course in your mind that makes me all the more guilty :rolleyes: . You my friend may just be the goose if Glirdan were in fact the owl, because I tend to think Mith may have had a point about it.

[Mithalwen]

Right.

When I did my exhasutive read through yesterday, I came to the conclusion that the last duck was the cursed duck and that it was most likely Lote.

Now I am not sure. Kath seems to be taking a relative backseat. This isn't necessarily suspicious since there have been a lot of noisy players and I know there are RL factors but then, I always suspect people who I know to be very strong are not quite living up to expectations....

Nogrod... I do think he has changed ..he wasn't sorry when I cleared him.... I do feel uneasy....

Cailin, I think innocent. Will be v. surprised if she turns out to be the duck. Apart from her odd little statement of who she wouldn't vote for at the beginning, she has played a very natural game reacting sensibly to the twists and turns.

SpM, though he is no longer a cert, I trust. This may be foolish but he has come up trumps for me and I will stick with him....

Morm - I still think it unlikely he would have gone for Ang yesterday.


So I must choose between Kath, Lote and Nogrod. If we have an original wolf, JKath is likeliest I think.

If a cursed wolf - Lote .... so why am I so uneasy about Nogrod..... because I can no longer trust what I thought I knew....

A few more minutes then I must vote or I will not be safe to drive home - I haven't had a proper nights sleep since the game began .... sorry..but I am exhausted .....

[The Saucepan Man]

SpM I don't quite understand why 'flip-flopping', as you call it, on the Mith/Glirdan issue is such a big deal.It is quite possible that, throughout that whole episode, a Duck would have been looking to hedge his or her bets, not knowing which was the Owl and which the Goose.

That said, JennyHallu, a known Duck, came out definitively against Mith and for Glirdan, which suggests that they may have worked out that Mith was the true Owl. That is why I am currently inclining towards voting for Lote, who adpoted the same approach.

Have I? I thought I merely found major points and set them straight.Morm. I have reread the whole thread. And I can assure you that you have responded to practically every point made against you. It doesn't follow that you're a Duck. But it looks suspicious to me.

You my friend may just be the goose if Glirdan were in fact the owl, because I tend to think Mith may have had a point about it.Why? Simply because I suspect you? I think that there are good grounds for doing so.

And, while I have a lot of faith in Mith, I do not share her assessment that there have been two Owls in this village. I think it unlikely that Diamoddess would have misled us so blatantly when she posted the "rules". The only possibility, to my mind, would be that a second Owl was created on Night 2, when the additional Duck was added. But this would be inconsistent with the accounts given by both Mith and Glirdan, who both referred to having had dreams on Night 1.

[Mithalwen]

2 owls is just a theory - and one we will have ot wait to find out. Glirdan's death makes it somewhat irrelevant. But I think a cursed is almost as much a mislead as an extra gifted so I ma not sure that is logical but.... as I say lets not get hung up on it.

BTW I think this is also irrelevant but if perchance I survive the night due to a Nightingale bluff, I may not dream of someone twice.

[Mithalwen]

I have no more reasoning to add and I don't trust my conclusions necessarily.
If we don't get the last (and please Eru it is the last...) duck today, the nightingale will want to consider the best course for the protection of Valier.

I am going to vote for Lote. She may be simply anti me due to knowing Glirdan better but I think her the likeliest Night One Kill. Also she has posted 7 times on this thread. It will be easier to pick the last duck (if she isn't) amid people who have really contributed thanhave someone who has posted so little in the mix.

++Lote22

May Namo judge my fea justly.

Namarie

[Kath]

There's just a few things I want to clear up.

People always seem surprised that I haven't made a huge contribution when we get a couple of Day's into a game. They assume I've made hundreds of posts, been right in the middle of things, but that is actually pretty rare for me. I have to have a huge amount of free time to be able to do that, and even then it isn't common. I lurk more than I contribute. And yet every game people say 'Kath hasn't been contributing as much as usual'. Take from that what you will, I just thought I'd point it out.

Also, why if morm is innocent am I a Duck?

As for Lote. I still can't see her being a Duck. I suppose if she did start off as innocent and then became one the votes do make sense. But, I don't know. I trust Mith's judgement on most things but even so.

Final thing - Nogrod. If we're talking about people suddenly becoming quiet then he's one to look at. He started off with a lot of posting, as usual, and then seemed to back off a lot. If he began as innocent and then became a Duck, that might be why.

[mormegil]

Also, why if morm is innocent am I a Duck?

Do I sense fear?

It doesn't automatically make you a Duck all the others have said is that it makes you suspicious. You've voted three times now for innocents at stages when it could be viewed as a subtle attempt to save the guilty. Three times is a lot and not easily attributed to back luck or poor judgement, but then again it could be, but personally I doubt it.

[Nogrod]

It's the1st of May - and some of you know, it's the workers partytime here in Europe. I belong to a choir that performs at this kind of festivities. We had two gags today and a party after that. I know, this is the worst day of my WW-history: it's 12.30 (AM) already, and I will have work tomorrow.

But just some preliminaries, before I will have to vote. And I surely hope to be alive tomorrow, to get involved in to the game once more...

I still suspect Lote - as I did yesterday. Nice to see at least Mith taking her eye on her too. She's a newbie, surely she is - and would give her all the benefit of doubt, but just look at how she votes and how she explains them...

Secondly I have not lost my suspicion on Morm. He seems to be playing very craftly - and I will not be doubling here the points brought forwards by Spm - and I think I have raised some genuine suspicions on him too myself. Not the least because of the list he made as a first thing on the day2 (it conveniently left him among the now known innocents - which was not clear then).

But Morm's case against Kath is surely worth looking at too. The voting record seems pretty bad.

I still have some faith in Mith - and that would leave me to believe in Spm too (even though there seems to be a chance there - as well as in the case of the dream of me - they both are about the rate of 1/14, so you can just come up with the possibility yourselves) - and thence Valier.

With these possibilities, I find Morm suspecting both me and Spm (entertaining those possibilities as a tactics) guite suspicious...

EDIT: X-posted with Kath & MOrm

[Cailín]

For now I choose to trust Mormegil, because it doesn't seem likely to me he was the first Night's attack. He was one of the people under fire the first day, so it wouldn't make sense the ducks would attack him. Though he could be a duck from the start..

I still believe Mithalwen is the Owl, so that makes her, SpM and Valier innocents.

So that leaves me with Nogrod, Kath and Lote..

The most suspicious at the moment is Kath, mainly the fact that she didn't vote on Spawn after Glirdan said he was the Owl. Spawn turned out to be a Duck.
And yesterday when people started voting on Jenny she voted on Mormegil, Jenny turned out to be a duck aswell. So,

++ Kath

[Nogrod]

Oh, and just to come back with this confusion of yesterday. I don't think we can come up with much of it - it should be seen though. There might be something...

I think, most of us saw Mith's case as a genuine one - as I do still look at it. Then Glirdy's announcement took us with a blow. But there was a good case to check his revealment, as he offered us a duck (unlike Mith) - and it turned out to be one. Glirdy's revealment was somewhat too careful anyhow - giving us a duck (that another duck would know - and after hearing, that they were one more after the night - would be bold enough to risk it), but only an already revealed innocent (Spm).

Anyhow: if Mith is a duck, she would be certain enough to reveal only real innocents... I hope we don't lose this scenario from our minds, even though I believe her to be true as for now.

Lote's vote for Mith might be genuine, but anyhow, as it was given at a critical moment, when no-one knew, how the things would turn out, and as it was against our common good - checking the duck-revealment by Glirdy - it could be seen as a trial to wrench the vote... I'm quite near to vote for her again tonight... But just a second.

[Kath]

I'm confused because the suspicion over me seems to centre on the fact that I didn't vote for spawn when Glirdan 'revealed' himself. I didn't believe him and so didn't follow him. I chose to vote morm because he looked far more suspicious to me.

[mormegil]

I find Morm suspecting both me and Spm (entertaining those possibilities as a tactics) guite suspicious...

Nogrod, I think you are quite missing the point of what I am saying. I am not saying that either of you are Ducks; rather I am merely saying that either of you could be Ducks. There is a distinct difference. I choose to look on the realistic side of things and therefore say that neither of you are known innocents. While it's quite probable that you both are I don't want the game to come down to the end and people continue to assume that you are innocent when in fact there exist the chance that you are not.

[The Saucepan Man]

It will be easier to pick the last duck (if she isn't) amid people who have really contributed thanhave someone who has posted so little in the mix.Indeed. Another good point against Lote. The village is getting quieter and quieter by the day. Without much to choose between a number of possible Ducks, I think that the village is best served by keeping the more talkative villagers, in preference to the quieter ones.

And I still find the case against Lote to be the most compelling. Her vote for Nilp on Day 1 is explicable either by her (wrongly) seeing it as a safe Duck-on-Duck vote or by her not in fact being a Duck at that time and only becoming one that Night.

Lote's vote for Mith might be genuine, but anyhow, as it was given at a critical moment, when no-one knew, how the things would turn out, and as it was against our common good - checking the duck-revealment by Glirdy - it could be seen as a trial to wrench the vote...This looks quite likely to me, particularly given JennyH's reaction to the Mith/Glirdan situation. I think that the Ducks wanted to try to get Mith lynched yesterday.

My mind is made up.

++ LOTE22

[mormegil]

I'm confused because the suspicion over me seems to centre on the fact that I didn't vote for spawn when Glirdan 'revealed' himself. I didn't believe him and so didn't follow him. I chose to vote morm because he looked far more suspicious to me.

It's more than just that Kath, your other votes look highly suspicous if viewed in the light of my innocence. Now I am the only one with any certainty as to my guilt or innocence so naturally I see you as highly suspicious. Oh yes another thing that came to my mind, my typo that you brought up earlier seemed a bit pedantic and was contrived to 'fuel the fire' so to speak. If you look at the title maundering mage I choose my name carefully because I believe it to be true. I am not as articulate in speech and do not make a habit of proof reading, perhaps I should as it would be of profit in general not to mention WW but I maunder again.

I'm really not sure about Lote and therefore I will vote for Kath as I agree that generally Cailin seems innocent and despite what Nogrod thinks I assume that SpM and he are innocent though I don't give them known status. Valier and Mith are obviously innocent.

++Kath

[Nogrod]

Oh my!

Aren't we now missing something? Glirdy gave us a duck - and by the last night's narration, was an innocent himself (so not a duck, but either a fool villager or a gifted - an Owl)? So why would a villager pretend to be an Owl in that situation? Or how could he trustt the foull-play, and get the duck right by pure chance (being an goose, so not knowing the identities of others)?

Maybe Glirdan was true?

But what does this make of Mith then? I duly understand, that I am one of the involved, but a duck's revealment - giving us all those innocents which she would truly know as a duck - would really credit her. And I see, both me and Spm being quite strong about this, tending to believe her as she has granted our innocence (well not perfectly, but still). And wouldn't that be the most genious way of a duck-play? She revealed us only on day2 - and as a duck, she would have known the situation (one duck more) already, and come to think of it?

As I just came to see this, I will have to reconsider my vote (I already pointed this possibility in my first post of today, but only now started to see it more clearly). On this basis, I will strongly think of voting Mith today.

EDIT: X-posted with the 4 last ones...

[mormegil]

Nogrod don't forget that Glirdan could be a goose as could, quite franky, Mith. But we will not know if they are a goose or not upon their death. The assumption is that Glirdan was a goose and lucky. I would not advise in voting for Mith. Sadly she will probably die tonight unless we get the last duck today.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod don't forget that Glirdan could be a goose as could, quite franky, Mith. But we will not know if they are a goose or not upon their death. The assumption is that Glirdan was a goose and lucky. I would not advise in voting for Mith. Sadly she will probably die tonight unless we get the last duck today.

But why should he have tried that, if he was the goose? Think of the possibilities getting the duck right? Try to make our last duck right now, and you see, it's not easy - and it was harder then...

So a suicidal act - if he was a goose! (Had Spawn not been a duck, he would have been lynched immediately) That's my point now.

Prove my thoughts wrong bwefore I have to vote! I'm tired and anyhow somewhat distressed. I can't think it clearer than this by now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Or how could he trustt the foull-play, and get the duck right by pure chance (being an goose, so not knowing the identities of others)?My guess is that Glirdan the Goose was trying not to name a Duck, but stumbled across one by mistake. If a Goose masquerading as an Owl names a Duck as an innocent, that Duck is hardly likely to complain. The only way he could be caught out is if the real Owl has dreamed of the Duck he names as innocent. But, assuming (which I do) that she is the real Owl, Mith had already revealed all that she knew.

And wouldn't that be the most genious way of a duck-play?I really cannot see that it would have been in a Duck's interests to masquerade as an Owl at that point. It would have invited almost certain death within days. No, if Glirdan's claim was true, then Mith is most likely the Goose.

But, to my mind, all the evidence points towards Mith being the Owl. The possibility that she's not cannot, I suppose be discounted. In which case, we would have no known innocents at all. But, for now, I prefer to go with the more likely scenario.

[mormegil]

I cannot prove your points one way or another. The arguement is moot. Mithalwen is alive and seems to be an owl. I tend to think that Glirdan may have been an owl too. The difficulty in accepting Glidan as an owl is the third dream. How could he not have dreamt? Nogrod I would go under the assumption that Mith is no Duck, she would be a goose at worst. Mith is very clever and smart but not a great bluffer and I doubt that she could pull off such a tactic as a Duck pretending to be an owl.

[Nogrod]

But, to my mind, all the evidence points towards Mith being the Owl. The possibility that she's not cannot, I suppose be discounted. In which case, we would have no known innocents at all. But, for now, I prefer to go with the more likely scenario.

I agree with you about this, but that's just the thing that discomforts me in the first place (not so much agreeing with you, but feeling so trusting about Mith myself :D )...

But thank's, you gave me some answers. That scenario is credible - as is the one I proposed (sadly).

EDIT: X-posted with Morm

[The Saucepan Man]

So a suicidal act - if he was a goose!Isn't that kind of the point of being a Goose? To help the Ducks, even if that means his own death. My guess is that he thought spawn was innocent and that getting her lynched was worth his own death.

[Nogrod]

Isn't that kind of the point of being a Goose? To help the Ducks, even if that means his own death. My guess is that he thought spawn was innocent and that getting her lynched was worth his own death.

But that was only day2! Would the goose be so hasty & hazardous?

Anyhow, I think I wiil not vote for Mith today. And I'm beginning to trust Morm a bit too - even if that is just what a duck-Morm would like me to do. Please Mith: if you are an Owl, dream him, and give us your credit on him - even though we should not forget your possible status - but you can't lie here (if you are the last duck - if you are the goose, you will be vewry bold, and just so great!). So funny this is, sometimes...

I'll have to consider between Lote & Kath now - and see the overall voting.

[Nogrod]

Mith --> Lote (Lote 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Lote 1, Kath 1)
Spm --> Lote (Lote 2, Kath 1)
Morm --> Kath (Lote 2, Kath 2)

I see that my case against Lote is far less convincing than Morm's about Kath...

[Kath]

I have to go to bed now. I don't want to vote for Lote, I still think she's innocent, but in the interest of saving my own life:

++LOTE

[Nogrod]

Well. This is just maddening...

I have my doubts on Lote still - as I had yesterday, but now I will believe more on Morm's case against Kath (her voting patterns seem to be quite disconcerting indeed).

I truly know, that by this, I will be leaving the choice to you others. Sorry. I will be more thoughtful tomorrow, if that ever shines on me. Mith's death during the night would clear things out, but I would happily see someone else dead by tomorrow morning.

++ Kath

[Nogrod]

Mith --> Lote (Lote 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Lote 1, Kath 1)
Spm --> Lote (Lote 2, Kath 1)
Morm --> Kath (Lote 2, Kath 2)
Kath --> Lote (Lote 3, Kath 2)
Nogrod --> Kath (Lote 3, Kath 3)

Good night to you all!

[mormegil]

Valier are you voting?

[Valier]

Sorry I just got back on here...I was planning on voting, Why?

[Valier]

AAAAHHHH There's only myself and Lote22 left to vote right? I don't know! I am torn on who to vote for! Anyone else out there? I need village support for this one.....:eek:

[mormegil]

Because it seems that you will be the deciding vote.

[mormegil]

Well I think you know how everybody feels and you will need to make a decision because if you don't vote now and Lote votes before you she will make the decision and frankly I'd rather you make the decision.

[Valier]

Ok well I guess there's no point in me waiting to vote. So I have thought it over and even though I suspect Kath, I have given some thought on Lote22. She is a newbie, but her sister has played well in werewolf games in the past and I tend to think she shares strategy and game play with her, so her being so quiet does seem odd. After all of this madness she has said little.... Her votes too are weird. I will let Kath go for today, I think.....My I not be wrong and we catch us the last Duck!!


++Lote22
*Crosses fingers and toes*

[Diamond18]

Not much point in waiting arond for Lote. Death will be up shortly.

Lote: IIII (Mith, SpM, Kath, Valier)

Kath: III (Cailín, Morm, Nogrod)

[Diamond18]

The village was torn between Lote and Kath, both quiet members of the village, and for a while it was anyone’s guess who would die.

“I’m innocent,” Kath maintained, “that elven idleponce is out to get me!”

“I’m not sure...” mused Mithalwen. “But Lote does seem very suspicious. I think we should kill her.”

“Well I don’t think she’s evil, but better her than me,” said Kath. “I am young and sweet and I love rainbows.” She proceeded to frolic in the meadow and catch rainbows to demonstrate her pureness of heart. “Look,” she said, pointing at a rainbow in the sky, “seven colors. The world is diminishing.”

“That’s deep,” said The Saucepan Man. “She must be innocent! I’m with Mith, we should kill Lote instead.”

“Yeah, right,” Morm scoffed. “Don’t let that innocent, rainbow loving girl exterior fool you, she’s the beast!”

Not-Cailín nodded. “I think he’s right. Kill Kath!”

“Oh, this is not good for my health,” said Nogrod. “I simply can’t decide. Ummmm....”

“La de da de dah, I love butterflies!” sang Kath.

“Clearly she’s evil,” Morm shook his head in exasperation.

“And wildflowers, and puppies, and babbling brooks! Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes, snowflakes that melt on my nose and eyelashes. Silver white winters that melt into springs, these are a few of my favorite things!”

“Okay, that’s it,” Nogrod decided, “she’s evil.”

“Wait,” said Valier. “I think not. I say we kill Lote.” She lifted her axe and added, “Right. Umm... where is she?”

The villagers went in search of Lote, and found her in her igloo factory, busy making igloos. “Um, Lote,” Mithalwen tapped her on her shoulder. “We’ve come to kill you.”

Lote didn’t even look up. “Not now, I’m busy.”

“Don’t you have anything say for yourself before we off you?” asked the Saucepan Orc.

“You’re standing in my light.”

“Oh, I’m sorry,” he shuffled out of the way.

“And close the door, you’ll melt my igloos!”

“Oops,” said Kath, and shut the door. “So, shall we?”

“Yes, let’s,” agreed Valier.

They seized Lote, who sputtered angrily about being interrupted, and carried her over to the Ice-O-Matic 2000™. “I have work to do!” she protested, but it was in vain. They put her in the tub of water, clamped down the lid, and set the dial to Deep Freeze. (Other options include Light Chill, A Bit Nippy, Bitterly Cold, and You’ll Freeze Your Gahoonies Off.)

In a moment, the indicator light turned green with a cheery little ding, and they opened the lid. Inside was a perfect block of ice, with a blue Lote encased inside, her mouth frozen open in the eternal ‘O’ of a disgruntled artist.

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but departed with a droid on Day 3
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru ~ Wereduck ~ Pitchforked to death on Day 3
Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher ~ Hawk ~ Gunned down with an M16 on Night 4
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder ~ Villager ~ Consumed by flames from the Hawk’s cigarette lighter on Night 4
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker ~ Villager ~ Encased in a block of ice on Day 4

~ The Living ~

Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker
Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist

[Diamond18]

The morning of the fifth day dawned bright and clear, but that was the only thing about the whole situation that was bright or clear. The villagers were considerably less in number than when the horrors had begun, and it didn’t take long to assess who was and was not present. Mithalwen had not come to the village trapezoid, and so they went with heavy hearts to her home. They searched the house and could not find her, so they went to her workshop, or rather, the saggar maker’s workshop, where she was employed. It’s not like there was a saggar maker in the village, but no one ever really thought about that oddity too much.

Other than the various tools of the trade, they found the place conspicuously empty. Where could Mith have gone off to?

But then, they discovered another note taped to a vermilion colored ceramic jar. It read:

I have discovered a new way to make pottery glaze. It’ll be all the rage.
Signed, the Duck

The villagers gasped, realizing the hideous truth: Mithalwen was the glaze!

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but departed with a droid on Day 3
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru ~ Wereduck ~ Pitchforked to death on Day 3
Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher ~ Hawk ~ Gunned down with an M16 on Night 4
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder ~ Villager ~ Consumed by flames from the Hawk’s cigarette lighter on Night 4
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker ~ Villager ~ Encased in a block of ice on Day 4
Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker ~ Villager ~ Melted down and made into pottery glaze on Night 5

~ The Living ~

Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist

[mormegil]

Well that's no surprise :(.

Can anybody give me any reason as to why we shouldn't lynch Kath?

[Valier]

Grrrrrrr!!! I guess I was totally expecting that! I see no reason not to vote for Kath today. I am sorry now that I didn't vote for her yesterday, but I decided to go with Mith on that one. I should have gone with my gut and killed Kath! (Stupid me) We need to narrow down the list of innocents today and catch us the last Duck!

[Nogrod]

Surely no surprise this one...

But this seems to give us one possible good news, as it seems, that the goose is also dead. So five villagers against one duck. That should mean, that we have two chances to win this one, today and tomorrow.

We have three known innocents and three unknowns. So with two lynches, it is 2/3. We could make it. But that means some real investigation into the cases of Kath, Morm and Cailin. And surely, if you wish, to mine. I know, I haven't changed into anything featherd the second night. But as we all know, that can be proven only with my death.

[mormegil]

My guess about Kath's behavior today will be that she'll be quiet and cautious so as to not arouse suspicion but will poke and prod a bit here and there on the most common alternative 'non-Kath' theory. I would love somebody to give us another analysis of Kath, that way people will know that it's not slanted by me; in fact I'd love to see two that way I would know that at least two innocent did the analysis, one of the others and me.

As far as Cailin goes, I'm fairly convinced of Cailin's and non-Cailin's innocence, but of course we should give her the once over too. I'm glad you admit, Nogrod, that there is a possibility that you are a Duck but also we need to keep in mind that there is a slight chance SpM is too. Now I would save that analysis for tomorrow if we don't get the duck today. I would love to see SpM, Valier and Kath go over my posts as well as the other two but particularly those three.

[Valier]

Well I am off to bed now. I can't promise an analysis of any value to others, since I don't work that way, but I will definately look over all that has been written when I get up tomorrow. I would like to hear from Kath and Cailin by then. Till the morrow then.:)

[Nogrod]

As I walked back home from school (takes almost an hour), I had time to think a little this Owl/goose -stuff that bothered me a bit already earlier. And I must admit being a bit more anguished by it now. And as we will have at most two chances to win this game, I don't think we can afford leaving any stones unturned.

Assuming we didn't have two Owls - or any other miraculous things going on (someone given an extra-dream etc.), then it should be clear that of our two owl-candidates, one was the owl, the other was the goose. No ordo would start that kind of game.

We have quite all accepted Mith as the owl, and Glirdy as the goose. I admit, having somewhat being of that opinion too. But now I'm not so sure anymore (not meaning, I'm sure the otherway-around is true).

If we look at both of them, one at the time, as Owls, they both make sense. Mith was coming under some attacks and she was facing her bedtime. If she would not react, she might just wake up in the morning, finding out herself dead - and two dreams of innocents lost from the village, possibly a third one with the Nitghtingale's help.

But Glirdy then? He had a dream of an actual duck. In the case of his death at night (you never know) we would have lost all the dreams (one duck, one innocent) and would be left in the hands of a false Owl (by that time it was a possibility that Mith might even be a very bold duck). In a game where the giftedness is not revealed in death, the life of an Owl is much harder - and I believe, revealing just one duck could be wiser than to risk losing it altogether.

Both acted a bit strangely, as their giftedness was questioned. But surely Glirdy failing to dream the next night was the weirdest thing. It was just so astonishing, that it might even be thought of as a genuine failure to dream?

But the problems arise, when we start thinking about the goosiness of these two. So let's see both of them as a goose this time.

Glirdy as goose seems to me just totally insane character. What possible thing might he had in mind? If he tried us to disbelieve Mith's annoucement, he took the hardest (and the most unprobable) way possible. He decided just to guess for a duck! From the village then, he had a chance of 1/5, and had he missed, he would be dead himself the next day.

Mith as a goose seems much more effective. As she was only revealing innocents, she could hope to hit a duck eventually. Well: the best gift a goose could give to the ducks would be taking the position of the Owl and manage to declare a duck innocent! That would be fantastic indeed...

Well I have some more thoughts about how this could affect our current situation. I'll come to them in a moment.

[Nogrod]

If we can all assure ourselves, that Mith was the Owl and Glirdy the goose. Then it would seem "bussiness as usual".

And we would have an overall scheme about the following:
Valier - dreamed innocent
Spm - dreamed innocent (very high probability)
Nogrod - dreamed innocent (high probability)

Cailin/non-Cailin - not suspected much
Morm - suspected / not suspected
Kath - highly suspected

But if we come to think of Mith as the goose, the situation changes, taking one of the dreamed ones out of the list. It does not mean, that one of the dreamt ones is a duck, but it opens that possibility. Now then: it would not be Spm, as he was backed by Glirdy too (if Mith is a goose, then Glirdy is the right Owl). I know, it wouldn't be me, as I have not changed. That would then move Valier to my list of possible ducks.

That leads to the reasons / motivations, why the goose-Mith was killed?

Firstly, it's possible, that the duck was afraid of being caught as a duck (believing Mith the owl). That would mean, that the dreamt of's are all innocents.

Secondly, the duck might have thought of Mith as the goose, but as she seemed not to get any ducks on the lineup of innocents, she had to be stopped before she got too many innocents revealed. That also leaves all the dreamt of's innocent.

Thirdly, and most anguishly, the duck might have just gotten to the list, and decided to stop it to the best place possible. As the least suspected person, Valier could basically secure herself alive after tomorrows lynch (three left), and thence win the game. If either I or Spm would have been the duck, we should have killed her earlier, not to bring too many innocents to spoil our game.

I'm not saying, that Valier is the duck. I'm just pointing out, that if the case Mith is rethought (as I see possible, even though not as evident), then Valier could be one of our real suspects. That's because: I know, that only she can be the duck from us three dreamt of's, and because her place on the list fits Mith's death only today, and is the best possible for sealing the victory.

I would like to hear your comments on this Owl/goose thing today.

I will promise to look at Kath's earlier posting more closely today. But a bit later.

[Kath]

I simply don't understand why I'm under all this suspicion. If you're all determined to think of me as a Duck then ok, but please tell me why.

Nogrod's theory about Mith being the Goose rather than the Owl is intruiging, but she was just too convincing to me. I don't think she could have kept the act up so calmly.

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay. :rolleyes: So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck.

Still, I think out of the unknowns Cailin looks innocent leaving, to me, morm as the last Duck. At least, lets hope it's the last, Diamond's already given us one surprise!

[Nogrod]

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay. :rolleyes: So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck.


I do agree with you Kath, that Morm's "pre-analysis" was kind of nasty way of putting things forwards. It hasn't at least lessened my suspicions of him. For good or for evil, he seems to be set to lynch Kath - and if Kath turns out to be innocent, then I'm probably the next. And if he is the duck indeed, I must congratulate him, if he succeeds. But as I said, we must consider all believable possibilities today.

That's why I would like to hear your assesments concerning the possibility of Mith being the goose. I'm not saying she is, but I do not think, her not-being a goose is self evident - as seems to be the general tone around now.

I hope someone will make an analysis on Morm today - as at least I have promised to look for Kath's posts. Funny though: Morm quite openly declared not wishing me to analyse him... :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Just a short one.

How about, if we did have two Owls after all? Diamond, who gave us an extra duck to handle with, could have thought of making two Owls also - as a recompense (quite a recompense it has been! :p ).

I mean: she said there would be a surprise that we would have to find out (the finder would be honoured in the "awards" - so it has to be something someone can work out from the thread - not something that the mod just announces). Adding an extra-duck is not something, that someone could find out by her/himself. But the presence of two Owls (or one right and one false) could be something, someone might come to see?

What bothers me, is that they were both quite believable as Owls, but Glirdan just totally unbelievable as a goose - and Mith would have been the most bold and daring goose one could imagine!

So two owls? What say you?

We would again be with the list of Kath, Morm & Cailin (and some slight possibilities for me and Spm).

[mormegil]

Morm quite openly declared not wishing me to analyse him...

I would love to see SpM, Valier and Kath go over my posts as well as the other two but particularly those three.

How do you figure?

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay.

My guess about Kath's behavior today will be that she'll be quiet and cautious so as to not arouse suspicion but will poke and prod a bit here and there on the most common alternative 'non-Kath' theory.

How does this dictate your behavior? In fact it does not but your response to it was exactly what I thought it would elicit. You are trying to build a buffer for you suspicious behavior today by glancing it on me. I gave my guess as to how you would act...Nogrod has fallen for you story it seems. :rolleyes:

Kath your voting record is markedly guilty, you find trivial matters and try and use them against others, me ususually, and do it at a time when you can add fuel to the mormegil fire. I don't have enough time currently to do a thorough analysis but I feel I've done it on you over the past days anyway.

Where is SpM?

[The Saucepan Man]

Where is SpM?I’m here. Sorry that I wasn’t able to make it earler, but it’s been a hectic day in the fields. Lots of crows to deal with. I was hoping to get on during my lunch-hour, but unfortunately didn’t have time.

I suppose we are still left with the possibility that Mith was the Goose. But I just don’t see it. Her claim throughout seemed the more credible to me. And Glirdan as Goose is not so far-fetched as Nogrod would have it. The Goose’s job is to cause confusion and mislead the village, by his own death if necessary. Glirdan, if the Goose, has certainly achieved that, even if he did unwittingly name a Duck (presumably believing her to be innocent).

By my reckoning, therefore, Glirdan was the Goose, Mith the true Owl, and Valier is innocent. Per Nogrod’s theory, we cannot regard Valier completely as such, but I see it as extremely unlikely that she’s a Duck.

Which leaves morm, Cailin, Kath and Nogrod (As far as I am concerned, at least).

Mormegil I have strongly suspected for a number of days now. My reasoning from yesterday stands. And I am concerned over his seeming eagerness to lynch Kath today. He uses Kath’s voting record against her, yet his own also looks suspicious to me. He has voted twice for known Ducks, participating in their lynching, which speaks in his favour on the face of it. Yet not if the circumstances in which those votes were cast is taken into account. On Day 2, he voted for spawn following Glirdan’s declaration. Since, following that declaration, she was almost certainly going to be lynched, it was an astute vote for a Duck. On Day 3, he voted for Jenny when it was all but certain that either he or she would be lynched. If he is a Duck, he really had no choice but to vote for her. He may have thought that two Duck-on-Duck votes would be sufficient to clear him of suspicion. I don't think that they do, because each was a logical vote for a Duck at the time that it was cast. So, morm still tops my suspicion list.

Cailín has come to represent something of a problem for me. I can see little to suggest that she is a Duck and have assumed her innocent ‘til now. Yet I am also wary of the dangers of assuming someone innocent. Indeed, it is in some ways easier for a Duck to appear innocent than a villager, since the villagers are usually stumbling around in the dark, often drawing the wrong conclusions, while Ducks have the advantage of knowing who’s innocent. We should not discount her (nor, indeed, her alter ego, non-Cailín).

Kath’s voting record does look suspicious, given that, on Days 1, 2 and 3, she voted for someone other than the Duck that was lynched. But would a Duck be so careless as to allow this to happen three Days running, thus drawing (as it has) undue attention to her? On Day 2, her vote was cast after Glirdan’s declaration, when it looked likely that spawn would be lynched. Her best vote, as a Duck, would surely have been for spawn. I do not discount her as a Duck, but her voting pattern might equally be that of a misguided innocent. And, other than her voting record, I can see nothing to suggest that she’s a Duck.

Kath ... you find trivial matters and try and use them against others, me ususually, and do it at a time when you can add fuel to the mormegil fire.Morm, would you mind providing some examples? This is not something that has been apparent to me.

Nogrod I suspected yesterday as a possible Duck for the apparent change in his behaviour after Day 1. His continued speculation that Mith may have been the Goose may, if he is a Duck, be designed to confuse. Certainly, I do not understand his point about Glirdan’s behaviour being strange for a Goose. From where I am standing, it looks like classic Goose behaviour to me. And it would, of course, be in the Duck’s best interests to add Valier back into the mix as a possible Duck.

Valier, as I have said, I am regarding as innocent, unless anything happens to persuade me of the contrary.

All of which leaves me in rather a quandary … :(

[The Saucepan Man]

For the record, here's yesterday's voting record:

1. Mith for Lote (Lote-1)
2. Cailín for Kath (Lote-1, Kath-1)
3. SpM for Lote (Lote-2, Kath-1)
4. Morm for Kath (Lote-2, Kath-2)
5. Kath for Lote (Lote-3, Kath-2)
6. Nogrod for Kath (Lote-3, Kath-3)
7. Valier for Lote (Lote-4, Kath-3)

Did not vote: Lote

I don't think that it tells us much, given that there were only ever two candidates for eviction and only one Duck remains.

[Valier]

Well it's nice to see that everyone is talking....except Cailin so far....which is weird.... I can see how Nogrod may think I am a Duck, but even if Mith was a goose, she would of course say I am an Ordo before she died to mess us up even further. After reading everything over, I tend to agree with SPM on Kath. I thought something was up with her, but her voting pattern does suggest a confused villager, as I have often ended up like her in most games. Morm does seem a little odd with his push towards Kath as soon as the day started. Calilin is way more talkative than this!! She may be away though, that's why there is non-Cailin, so they may be just as confused as we are, just less vocal. I am sooooooo confused! My gut feeling is indeed going down about Kath....Who could it be?


Ok, Duck! Give yourself up now!!! Just raise your little feathery wing, and I promise we will kill you "nicely";)

[mormegil]

Morm does seem a little odd with his push towards Kath as soon as the day started.

Both SpM and Valier need to remember that I've been suspecting Kath for about 3 days now so an immediate push isn't odd. I've continued to view her as guilty and a night of sleep isn't going to change how I feel. In essence we are saying that the Duck is either Kath, Cailin, or Me. I accept that and generally agree, as you know. Out of those three Kath and I look the most suspcious and indeed I cannot fathom another being a Duck, though the possibility exists. Therefore I propose lynching either of us today and the other tomorrow.

Kath what say you?

[Valier]

Ok I was reading through and noticed Spawn talked alot about Roa (duck) and Mormegil...could be a duckish tactic....hhhmmmmm

[mormegil]

Ok I was reading through and noticed Spawn talked alot about Roa (duck) and Mormegil...could be a duckish tactic....hhhmmmmm

But we know Roa wasn't a duck...so where are you going with this?

[Valier]

So I guess there's no way we can have a double lynch? What if we tie the votes and the last two to vote, vote at the exact same time....would it be a double lynch then?:rolleyes: :p I know, I know, but this is driving me batty!

I wish we could lynch two and bring us closer to a win...So the nightinggale is still alive eh? I have an idea who it is...If it is someone other than SPM or myself (obviously) then perhaps they should come out and narrow the list....I know I have a good chance of dieing tonight if they protected me last night, so I would love to catch that Duck before I go...

[Valier]

But we know Roa wasn't a duck...so where are you going with this?
Ok...right...I told you I was going Batty! Take no notice of this blunder...:confused:

[The Saucepan Man]

Both SpM and Valier need to remember that I've been suspecting Kath for about 3 days now so an immediate push isn't odd.It's not your suspicion of her that alarmed me, but your the suggestion, implicit in what you said, that there could surely be no reason not to lynch her.

Can anybody give me any reason as to why we shouldn't lynch Kath?This reeks to me of a Duck trying to take control and manipulate the village into lynching an innocent.

Therefore I propose lynching either of us today and the other tomorrow.Dangerous, if neither of you is the Duck (I have most certainly not discounted a Night 2 conversion of Nogrod). But, to me, your "ever so reasonable" suggestion implies that Kath should be the one we lynch first. Then, when we find her innocent, a Duckish morm will no doubt come up with countless reasons why we should not follow through with the plan.

Is this the last, desparate ploy of a cornered Duck? I suspect that it might well be.

[mormegil]

Well I've done a brief perusal of Spawn's post seeing if and when she mentioned other Ducks. She never once mentioned JennyHallu. Really didn't say anthing on Nilp and only in Post 191 did she mention Kath. That mention was more of a quick passing comment about the 'duel' between Kath and Sleepy.

Yet Spawn seemed to do analysis of many people all known innocents exept me, but to me I am known to be innocent but I don't expect anybody to take my word on that of course.

Now I would like to go through Jenny's posts and see of the mention of Kath and Spawn in them.

[mormegil]

Is this the last, desparate ploy of a cornered Duck? I suspect that it might well be.

My dear Saucie, I must say that I am somewhat insulted that you think so poorly of me. If I were a duck I wouldn't give up at this point. Last desperate ploy indeed! Somebody once said something about me, in this village too, that something I did was either very altruistic or very duckish, I wish somebody could view me as an altruist. :(

[mormegil]

I am not surprised. My search of JennyHallu's post turned up very little said about both Spawn and Kath.

Jenny in post 100 outlines everybody in the village and says the following things, now obviously either Jenny, Spawn or the third duck (kath) are innocent being day 1 and all.

DSoU: She's only posted twice today, so don't expect to see a lot here. She had some confusion as to the rules that's been picked up on as a reason for vote. This makes little sense to me. I'd like to hear more from Spawn, but I don't think her question says anything towards her quackiness

Kath: Says little, but to the point. No opinion

Nilp: Voted for himself...seems to be standard operating procedure. Withholding judgment (or any sort of opinion, really) until tomorrow.

Yet on most others she has some sort of opinion.

Post 105 all suspicions of known innocents, not that this in and of itself means a lot but let me explain.

Nilp, Jenny, and Spawn seem to have not mentioned each other much at all and never brought any strong suspicion against each other. I've demonstrated that they've been all but silent on Kath. The people against whom they spoke, with the exclusion of me, are all known innocents. If their behavior patterns remains consistent, which I believe it would, it should follow that the final duck was seldom mentioned. All the ducks, obviously not Nilp, but Kath included have attempted to bring up a case against me. Think about that.

[The Saucepan Man]

My dear Saucie, I must say that I am somewhat insulted that you think so poorly of me. If I were a duck I wouldn't give up at this point.I never said that you were giving up. If you are a Duck, however, you are in fairly desperate straights right now. Your approach may signify a spirited attempt to keep yourself alive today and cross tomorrow's bridge when you come to it.

If their behavior patterns remains consistent, which I believe it would, it should follow that the final duck was seldom mentioned.The last thing that I would expect from the Ducks, assuming them to be playing well, would be for them to all behave alike. Nor would I expect them necessarily to avoid mention of each other. The traditional approach, is it not, is to spread some suspicion of one's fellow Ducks where it is safe to do so, but without driving it home? I am not sure that we should read too much into Jenny's post that you refer to, as she mentioned a number of people, innocents and Ducks alike, in a fairly neutral way. Spawn's vote for you speaks in your favour admittedly, but she was (presumably) not to know at that time what havoc would ensue.

But, on reflection, I am concerned whether we might be focussing too strongly on you and Kath. It is quite possible that neither of you is a Duck and that either Nogrod was converted on Night 2 or Cailin has been successfully flying under our collective radars. That worries me, and it is why I thought your earlier proposal to lynch either you or Kath today and the other tomorrow a dangerous one. It is also one to which the sole Duck (if not you or Kath) would readily agree.

[mormegil]

SpM you speak fair sense and it helps allay any doubt that you were converted on night 2. Well my good SpM what do you propose? I still think Kath highly suspect and want her lynched. I really would like to hear a bit more from Valier, as she is the only one I trust 100%

[Valier]

I agree with SPM once again on the points that we have been only looking at Kath and Morm as suspects. I have been thinking along these same lines all day. I still worry that if we don't lynch Kath tonight she may well be the duck and is getting away for another day. Since I can only truely trust myself, since the possibilitiy of either Nogrod or SPM having been switched to the dark side, I find it hard to make a definative choice. Yesterday's vote for Lote was not what I felt I should do, but I decided I should in the end go with SPM and Mith and vote her out. I don't want to make the same mistake again today. I more than likely will be killed tonight, so I want to make this vote count....


I am leaning towards Kath and more so Cailin at the moment, I still find it odd that she is no where to be seen yet today. I would like to hear more options from others and hopefully even some numbers on if we lynch so and so we have a ----chance probability of catching a duck..I am not good with these things but it may just come down to numbers, I will try to work them out myself, but some help would be great.

[Nogrod]

Ok., things seem to be moving. That's good.

I agree with Spm, that (non-)Cailin is really dangerously quiet. I can't say anything bad of her, except to the fact, that now the posting has somewhat ceased after the change of the roles. She told us something about her brother being the more intelligent and polite (or something), but she kind of didn't note us on these one-message policies. ANd what to say about this substitution-stuff anyway? A well-meaning villager who wants to not fail us others as she has RL things going on, or the duck who wants to take adventage of her RL fortunes?

Anyway. Even as I have tried to raise further questions today about the other possibilities we have (over this widely shared theory of Mith's owlness, leading to the primary suspects being Kath, Morm and Cailin), I still think it as the safest voting scheme today. Well why? If Mith-goose scenario is wrong, then Valier is innocent, Spm's chances of being turned into something feathery are quite small, and would need a certain interpretation of the rules to add on that. My chances of being converted are small also - and I happen to know, that nothing happened. But as Morm said. You can just take it or leave it. You have just my words on this thread. But then we can pick from just the three candidates. That's easier. And that's why I worry about it.

But, if we make a misguided lynch today, it all depends on tomorrow. And I can't be sure, whether I will be there then, so I have tried to help the village with these questions of mine today. They really should be discussed tomorrow. For if we go wrong today, it really forces us to think more widely.

Now someone said, I might be the goose here. I admit I have tried to add complexity to our choices, but not with the idea of misguiding us, but for us to see the real possibilities. I have never been in a game with a cobbler (or a goose), and don't know, what's the "standard procedure" to being a goose. But I just see Glirdan's actions so reckless and overhasty to benefit either himself (as a goose) or the ducks.

But what I'm really asking you fellow villagers, is that when you think about possible scenarios, you should be able to see the larger picture. You can't go on blaming Glirdan as a goose - and me as a goose at the same time! So if you think I am the goose, then Glirdan was innocent (and thence, probably an owl)! See the consequences of your ideas, and do not try to muddy the waters! If Glirdan was innocent - and I'm the goose, what the heck was the ordo-Mith then doing?

But shouldn't we also consider this possibility of two owls I mentioned early (well maybe tomorrow, if we miss today)? Surely we should. It leaves us with basically the list of suspects than does the Owl-Mith scenario, but it leaves the possibility of the goose being still loose - it doesn't mean s/he evidently is still around, but it would be possible then. And that would be bad news indeed.

If we would come to believe on this scenario (remember: the possibility of a goose within us requires somehow both Glirdy and Mith being owls - or then some Diamond-magic :) ) I would go for looking at the possible goose candidates among those who really try to persuade us not to see the track of our thoughts, but who would like us to think in a most simple and misguided manner...

EDIT: X-posted with Morm & Valier

[Valier]

But, if we make a misguided lynch today, it all depends on tomorrow. And I can't be sure, whether I will be there then,


I am curious as to why you think you would die tonight. I know it is possible for anyone to be killed, if I am not killed then the Duck is set on further confusion or leading us in the wrong direction. Since I assume that I was protected last night....Hmmmmm Do we still have a nightinggale? If we do, do you think it would help if they came out? Since I may die tonight, it may not have too many consiquences if they come out. Since either they or myself will be the target, then if I do go you last Ordo's can have one more person to trust.

I hope this makes sense....just kinda thinking to myself as I write.:D

[Nogrod]

I am curious as to why you think you would die tonight. I know it is possible for anyone to be killed, if I am not killed then the Duck is set on further confusion or leading us in the wrong direction. Since I assume that I was protected last night....Hmmmmm Do we still have a nightinggale? If we do, do you think it would help if they came out?


I didn't actually think I would be the first in the list of the kills, but at this stage, the duck would be wise to spread the confusion with her/his kill of the night. And because of what I said (putting forward ideas you others seem to have been not very happy about), you others might be mislead to believe things that the real duck might use, one way or another by killing me. But surely, you could think these out. And if the duck is not so bright, we should not help her/him in this.

And sadly, we don't know about the nightingale. I would not talk about this matter more, sorry. I guess s/he will have to decide for her/himself... It's the last instance, to be sure, but there are risks involved. And we might need her/him still...

[Kath]

morm, those comments you quoted from Jenny, which Day are they from? Because Mith (who I still believe was the Owl) believed that she was the converted Duck, and so if those were made on Day 1 then she wouldn't have known anything about spawn or Nilp would she? She'd only have as much knowledge as the next innocent.

If, however, she was an original Duck and those comments were made on Day 1, only two of those she mentioned could have been Ducks at that time. We know spawn and Nilp were, so you can't use that logic to determine that I am one too, it gives you one too many.

[mormegil]

Jenny in post 100 outlines everybody in the village and says the following things, now obviously either Jenny, Spawn or the third duck (kath) are innocent being day 1 and all.

Kath I see your point and stated this in that exact post. I realize that one of the three females was innocent on day one but the point remains that Jenny spoke about Spawn, Nilp and you about the same. Mith thinking that Jenny was the converted Duck has absolutley no bearing on anything. Even though she were the owl she wouldn't know if she were an original Duck or a converted.

Let's assume Spawn is the converted Duck and you were original.

Jenny didn't speak much about you and Nilp on Day 1 of course she includes others in there that they perhaps wanting to kill that night, which would make sense to me. It wouldn't tie back to her when Spawn was killed. So they move in for the Spawn kill and to their surpirse, yours to I should add, she turns into a duck. The pattern of behavior from Jenny remained consistent on all. I think that you are grasping at straws.