Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Nogrod]

What's the actual tally?

(30 second rule hit me...)

[Caranlondien]

::SIGH::

Cailín, if I could hug you right now, I would. :D

[Kath]

Day has ended, please stop talking. That means all of you.

The Saucepan Man's death will be up soon.

[Nogrod]

This is tense... and terrible.

[Cailín]

Let's hope it was for a good cause. :)

[Kath]

“Oh you fools!” Cried The Saucepan Man, having witnessed the flurry of voting that had eventually led to this situation. “First you lynch the one person I thought to be innocent and now you lynch the one person I know to be innocent!”

“Would you please shut up? We’ve had enough of your chatter!” Cried the villagers. “It doesn’t matter if you’re innocent, we had to save the Hunter.”

“Yes.” Interjected Cailín. “Sorry for the deciding vote thing and all, but those useless men just couldn’t make up their minds. Why, I’ll bet they can’t even think of a decent way to kill you now.”

“Oh yes we can!” Cried the two in question, outraged at the accusation. Everyone stood in expectant silence waiting for the ideas to spew forth, but none were forthcoming.

“Well.” Nogrod mumbled. “I can’t do it while everyone’s watching.”

Smirking, Cailín turned to the rest of the villagers.

“Anyone got any ideas? I happen to know that his favourite animal is the duck-billed platypus, but I can’t think of a way to use that in his death so . . .”

Her words were interrupted by the arrival of a member of the village who had been missing for much of the day, Nilpaurion Felagund. A simple arrival would not have had such a dramatic effect on the proceedings, except that he turned up bearing the platypus previously mentioned.

Sauce cried out in alarm. He’d been banking on the fact that no such creatures could be found in these parts, but now here was one staring straight him in the face. Well, the general stomach area really but that didn’t make for a very frightening image in anyone’s imagination.

He began to struggle, his pans hitting some of his captors, but rather than causing them to let go, this simply reinforced their desire to keep him still, so they tied him to the flagpole in the village square, before spitefully hitting over the head with his own pans in retaliation.

A few members of the village were crowded around Nilp and his platypus. They were having difficulty getting a straight answer out of him as to where he’d been all Day and what he was doing with this creature, as Adam kept trying to surface and show them something. Eventually deciding that they would get nowhere until they allowed him to give his little demonstration they stepped back.

“Thank you. Now, watch.”

He turned the platypus round and squeezed it hard. The creature gave out a strange squawking sound, and suddenly a egg shot out of it, heading directly for Sauce. The tied man tried to avoid the missile heading his way but the villagers had attached him so firmly to the pole that he could do nothing but shake his head. They watched as the egg crashed into his throat, and heard the gasping attempts at breathing before he finally realised that his windpipe had been crushed.

They slowly moved closer, waiting for his transformation, but yet again they were disappointed. As the final wisp of air left his throat, Sauce collapsed in his bonds, very definitely an ordinary villager.

As if this wasn’t enough, they jumped at the scream emanating from behind them. Turning they saw Nilp lying on the ground, caught in what looked like death throes.

“Help me!” He screamed. “He’s getting out!”

Confused the villagers looked to each other hoping someone else would have some idea of what he was talking about.

“What can he mean?” Was the question being passed round. They soon got their answer. Nilp gave one final scream and then gave up, closing his eyes to let death take him. From his body there rose a silvery, translucent mist, which formed the shape of a man.

“He means me!” It whispered. “I am Adam, and I am finally free!”

dancing spawn stepped forward.

“Free? Maybe. But you have killed Nilp, your host, the only thing tying you to this mortal realm. Now that he is gone, so are you.”

The apparition scoffed, but then paused at the certain look on spawn’s face. As he began to protest, his ‘body’ started to disintegrate.

“No!” He cried. “This cannot be! Noooooo!”

And then he was gone. The villagers looked at the two bodies, both decidedly innocent of wolvery, and left lmp to his unfortunate job.


Dead:
Night 1 ~ Kath, killed by a turtle in an aerial attack ~ Innocent.
Day 1 ~ Boromir, lynched by the villagers by means of lions ~ Innocent.
Night 2 ~ Formendacil, killed by a coyote and it's trickery ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Saucepan Man, lynched by the villagers by means of a platypus catapault ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Nilpaurion Felagund, killed by an emerging alter-ego ~ Innocent.

Living:
Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Fea - confectionist
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Findëasëa (from now called Fin) - alpaca herder
spawn - lumberjackess
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin - ninja


Night 3 has now begun.
Wolves, Seer, Ranger, Hunter and Changeling please PM me your choices.

[Kath]

Dancing spawn of ungoliant headed out towards the woods. She knew the warnings about the wolves and their animal helpers, but staying safe from them wasn’t going to do her any good if she died from cold in the meantime. Swinging her axe up onto her shoulder she kept a sharp eye out for anything moving.

Reaching the first line of trees without incident, spawn now faced a dilemma. If she turned her back on the town she would be caught unawares if the wolves came for her from there, but if she turned her back on the woods any number of animals could creep up on her from that direction. Caught between a rock and hard place, spawn gave up on any kind of lookout, and simply attempted to cut down the wood she needed for her fire as quickly as possible.

Slamming her axe into the tree spawn soon had a healthy pile of branches lying next to her and gathered them up in her arms, ready to return home. Walking out from behind the tree she set off towards the village, pleased that there seemed to be no wolves in sight. She was halfway home before she remembered about the animals.

Stopping in her tracks she heard a faint thud behind her. Glancing round she saw nothing and began walking again, a little faster now than before. Every time her feet hit the ground she was sure she could hear it echo, but she was walking through an open space with nothing to reflect the noise. She turned again to look behind, and this time saw a faint flash of something light in colour amidst the trees.

Dropping all but two of the branches to lighten the load, spawn began to run, but this time her eyes were so fixed on the possible danger behind that she didn’t see the approach of the definite danger in front. Her eyes flicked forward to ensure she wouldn’t trip over anything, and immediately focused on the wolves sitting a little way off, right in between her and the village. Whirling round she saw a horse emerge from the woods and make its way toward her.

Holding the branches so she had one in each hand, spawn pointed one toward the wolves and one toward the horse, trying to look menacing. It didn’t work. The nearest wolf leapt and snatched the branch from her hand. Using her distraction to the advantage the horse reared up and kicked her in the stomach, sending her crashing down to the ground, and the stick flew out of her hand.

Moving over her, the horse reared up again. Staring down at spawn with its gleaming red eyes it made a triumphant noise, and brought its front hooves down onto her head, crushing it in one violent motion. Satisfied with its work, the horse galloped back to the forest, leaving the wolves to their feast.

The villagers awoke the next morning and soon noticed that spawn was no longer among them. Cautiously they looked for evidence of what the wolves had done with her. Remembering her occupation, they made their way out of the village and toward the woods.

“There!” Someone cried, pointing. The villagers followed the finger, and saw spawn. One leg had been planted in the ground and she was balancing precariously on one arm. The other two limbs had been torn off and were strewn around her. Her axe was propped up next to her.

“Well.” Said one villager faintly, after recovering from the bout of nausea that had followed the sight. “At least we know the wolves have a sense of humour.”

Day 3 how now begun. Wolves stop PMing, villagers start talking.

Dead:
Night 1 ~ Kath, killed by a turtle in an aerial attack ~ Innocent.
Day 1 ~ Boromir, lynched by the villagers by means of lions ~ Innocent.
Night 2 ~ Formendacil, killed by a coyote and it's trickery ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Saucepan Man, lynched by the villagers by means of a platypus catapault ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Nilpaurion Felagund, killed by an emerging alter-ego ~ Innocent.
Night 3 ~ dancing spawn of ungoliant ~ Innocent.

Living:
Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Fea - confectionist
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Findëasëa (from now called Fin) - alpaca herder
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin - ninja

[Findëasëa]

We are down two more valuable players, after both SPM and Spawn's deaths. Today we need to catch a wolf. I went back yesterday and started analyzing some of the actions of people who I am very unsure of at this point. As evidenced from the fact that the two greatest suspects yesterday have both been revealed as innocents, it seems likely that the wolves may be trying to hide in obscurity. The person I started with first was Lhuna. I did not find much mention of her, or any sort of analysis whatsoever so here is what I have:
Lhuna:
Day 1
#35
Nothing of interest- in character, random etc…
#36
Reiterates Nogrod’s comments on usefulness of the changeling. She voices a fear that the changeling can also bring about the victory for the wolves. She says that she hates it when someone has that much power.
#38
Votes for TGWBS, no real justification is given.

Day 1 Analysis:
On the first day Lhuna was extremely careful. All of her posts seem very safe. She talks about abstract concepts, such as the role of the changeling, without giving any solid opinions. She then votes for TGWBS without supplying any reasoning. This does not stick out as particularly wolfish. It was a day one, and she may have been pressed for time. It does seem like she was being careful not to do anything suspicious, but this alone is not enough to warrant suspicion.

Day 2
#142
Comments that the lynching of Boro on day one was odd, and cites an example of a similar situation that occurred with Gurthang. “Why can't we all learn that when people do this they're usually innocent? Just usually, mind.” She then goes on to say that she mostly agrees with SPM’s analysis of the people who voted Boromir. Although she is not suspicious of Spawn, she would fear her if she were a wolf. She does not think that the wolves would have contributed to an innocent’s death on the first day. She goes on to discuss Form’s death. She thinks that it was because he ‘left no trails yesterDay’ as well as it would cause confusion. She does not think that Caran is guilty, instead she fears one of her voters might be a wolf (LMP, SPM, or Cailin), but says that she does not think that it is a strong enough basis to suspect them.
#143
Lhuna says that she finds the behavior of Morm and LMP unusual. She lists a few things that she thinks might have contributed to their strangeness. Next, she notes that a case has been made against Durelin. She suggests that suspicion of Durelin should not be dismissed, as this reasoning might cause us to ignore bold wolves. Finally she is wary of Fea because of her randomness.
#145
She says that despite her unease about Fea, she thinks that her unwillingness to use retractable votes in her favor. Lhuna says that she will not retract votes, unless it proves necessary, and plans to keep an eye on those who do use the retractable votes a lot.
She then votes for Durelin, as she thinks she might be a bold wolf.

Day Two Analysis:
Today Lhuna’s playing style shifted. She gave a lot of opinions about specific individuals. She still seems very cautious to me. This is evident in statements like “Why can't we all learn that when people do this they're usually innocent? Just usually, mind.” Statements like this leave the option of the player to not give a definite opinion, so they can be more flexible later. The only person who she directly accused as wolf-like was Durelin. This is interesting, as other people have voiced this similar fears of Durelin as well (SPM in 73, Celuien 123, LMP 132). At this point, I am cautious of Lhuna, because she is playing the game very safely and the reasoning of her second vote seemed to just echo other player's opinions, but I see no real reason to suspect her. If anyone knows if this kind of behavior is consistant with how she usually acts, it would be useful.

[Caranlondien]

First of all, apologies for waiting so long to reveal myself yesterDay, thus forcing the un-thought-out lynching of SpM. I thought I could make it another Day, and I almost did, but at the end there I had to, and there wasn't much time for a reasoned debate about whom to lynch.

Now, my record with wolf-spotting so far isn't that great, but for what it's worth, I'll give my thoughts on the village. So far, I've been kind of ignoring my suspicions of the quiet villagers, because I didn't feel we had enough to go on there. But I think at this point, it's time to start looking at them more closely.

My thoughts in this post are all without any real analysis, just general observations. I'll do more detailed stuff a bit later.

So, here's the village:

Lhuna
Cailín
Fea
Celuien
TGWBS
Lommy
Nogrod
lmp
Tom
Fin
Mith
morm
Durelin

So far the ones I've been most suspicious of are Fea, Mith, morm, and Durelin. lmp could be up there, too, though my suspicions of him have dwindled.

I'm glad Fin has taken a look at Lhuna, one of the quieter villagers who could be a wolf flying under the radar. Tom is another I'd like to look at, and hear a bit more from. And then there's Fin herself. So far she's been enormously helpful and sensible. That makes me nervous :p Her defense of me yesterDay (though much appreciated :D ) reminded me a bit of how I played as a wolf (erm, I mean orc) - when it looked like an innocent was going to be lynched, I tried to convince the village they were innocent, to make myself look good after they died. All I'm saying is, keep an eye on her. I don't want to lynch her yet, as if she's innocent, she'll be very useful.

[Celuien]

Apologies to Caran. I was convinced that she was a wolf yesterday. The hunter revelation, which I saw after day ended, came as shock to me.

At least I was right about one thing. SPaM was innocent. I told you not to lynch him. :(

I suddenly find myself very wary of Mithalwen for her switch to SPaM after LMP's attack on him. Not so much that she did vote for him as much as this qualifier:
This strategy makes you so vulnerable if it backfires that I will chance trusting you
I'd like to hear an explanation of that comment. Why point out that the vote is made because LMP would be vulnerable for attacking SPM? And I don't see why it's risky to trust LMP because he's vulnerable. He bears the risk, not those whom he convinces by his arguments. Indeed, I'd say that his attack on SPM was too aggressive and risky to be a likely Poetic Wolf move. Which makes voting with probably-innocent LMP against an innocent Panman possible cover for a wolf. Had that comment not been included, I wouldn't be as inclined to suspect Mith.

Durelin remains high on my suspect list for voting SPM after making this statement:
He's been acting rather like SPM, seeming to get irritated with people as he normally does, and ranting quite a lot. That's normal for him. But he's a bit more aggressive than I've experienced him being...though subtlely. I may be waaaayyy off, but he is not sticking to his votes or his statements. This might be proof of his innocence, but it might not be. He doesn't even seem to be headed in a certain direction, as far as I can tell, and there is nothing wrong with that, except that it's Saucie. I feel compelled to 'wait and see,' and yet I must vote. I'd like to see if I get killed tonight...then I think everyone should keep a closer eye on Saucie, as I would be the second person he defended and then 'offed.' I do think he's a lote smarter than that, though. But I'm not sure if that necessarily has anything to do with it. A wolf victory can come in many forms.
Back and forth, wants to wait and see, says his behavior is normal and may or may not be proof of his innocence. That's not the best reason to vote for him. Or anyone. Odd.

Findëasëa - I always find Lhuna difficult to read, but she seems pretty normal to me right now.

EDIT: Crossposted with Caran.

[mormegil]

Okay I'm back and I've now officially read the entire thread! Up to this point I have not been able to ergo my weak posts and strange behavior. A lot of my posts came when I had read portions and needed to comment on something that I saw, which wasn't much I admit. WW weariness is indeed what I suffer from currently; after the most taxing game I've been in we were forced to immediately begin here and I played mainly because it was Kath modding and we have a long BD and WW history together.

That being said I would like to give my general impression of all players. I don't have many quotes currently but I hope that I will be able to give some later on.

Lhuna - Far too quiet and not nearly loony enough. I'm uncomfortable with her though not convinced of guilt yet.

Cailín - I find highly suspicious. She seems good and cute but I think she may be hiding a secret and saw yesterday's chance to save Caran as a great ploy. If I am wrong forgive my skepticism. Mentioning that when I got back yesterday and made my quick post I didn't see that Caran had declared herself even though I noticed that I quoted TGWBS telling me she is the hunter. I was briefly scanning the thread for the mention of my name to see if I was going to be killed and missed that.

Fea - I'm fairly certain is innocent. I believe her story and will give her the requested benefit of the doubt.

Celuien - Markedly more quiet than I am use to. Though she is never too vocal but I don't really suspect her.

TGWBS - I find highly suspicious and many good cases have been brought against him by SpM, Spawn, and others. To be fair I tend to find him suspicious all the time, he's kind of like a mini-kath to me.

Lommy - Seems extremely suspicious to me. I hope to do more of an analysis on her but many good cases against her too. She seems to be moving a lot of opinion in an attempted subtle manner. She twists words and takes things out of context far too much for my liking.

Nogrod - Feels likely innocent to me.

lmp - Uncertain but I think innocent.

Tom - Moderately suspicious and would keep my eye on him.

Findëasëa - Entirely unsure and no real opinion.

Mith - Innocent!!!! Trust me on this one.

Durelin - Bold wolf or silly villager. Sadly she could be either rather well.

My top suspects remain

Lommy
TGWBS
Cailin
Durelin

in that order.

[Caranlondien]

As to morm's list of suspects:
Lommy - I always find her behavior suspicious. I've never known her as a wolf, so I don't have much insight.
TGWBS - He played a key role in saving me yesterDay. But that's the position a wolf would want to be in. The only game I've been in with him, I was a strong proponent of lynching him, and he turned out to be innocent.
Cailin - Same as TGWBS; as morm points out, saving me yesterDay would make an excellent wolf ploy. And she's another one slipping under the radar. But her behavior so far has seemed like normal to me.
Durelin - No idea about her... She's certainly worth watching, but I don't have a strong gut reaction to her.

I suppose that's not very helpful, as it's pretty much just me saying "I don't know anything about them, so I can't help you". I do have at least some experience with the first three on the list, so I'll take a closer look at them and see what I can come up with.

[Durelin]

I don't feel a real need to overly defend myself. If my vote for SPM seems incredibly suspicious, than...oh well. So SPM ended up being innocent. We almost killed, at least as far as we can tell, our Hunter. Yes, there were others to vote for, but...well, I didn't vote for them. And I suppose the placing of my post seems to stick me on a bandwagon, but all the votes for SPM before mine were obviously cast before I posted, and I was not aware of them when I posted, except for LMP's vote. Unfortunately, though, I did not get the chance to go over what he had to say, as I was coming the end of my post and the end of the time I had.

That's not the best reason to vote for him. Or anyone. Odd.

Sorry if it seems that way to you.

And trust me, finding out the SPM was innocent was a real blow for me.

un-thought-out lynching of SpM

I disagree on the 'un-thought-out' bit, at least on my part. I assure you, my vote for him was not purely out of a rush to save you. Sorry, but it wasn't. (considering you hadn't revealed yourself yet when I voted).

I really want to look at Celuien further (and no, not because she's suspicious of me...it's not like she's the only one, anyway), particularly since she keeps going for the very obvious choices. On day one, she initially just votes for Nilp. He by nature is obvious. But that's a day one vote, so it's always hard to tell.

Then, everyone starts getting suspicious of me, cause I somehow land myself in a SPM bandwagon (sounds familiar, heh) because of my ninja foolishness. Up pops Celuien with a vote for me.

Next day, she is of course still suspicious of me, and analyzes me. But then she quickly moves on the Caran, after comments from SPM garner some suspicion about her and tom bombarrific agrees that she is suspicious.

After her analysis of Caran, there is only one other brief post (posted very shortly after the analysis, in response to a post from the analyzed suspect herself) from her until she shows up to vote for Caran after four people already have.

After Caran reveals that she is the Hunter (and as far as we know she is), we do not hear from Celuien at all. It was nearing the end of the day, though, so 'tis understandable.

And today, she's back to me, now that everyone is looking at me again, particularly since my vote for SPM that is apparently 'odd.' I think poorly timed, rather. And obviously, I was wrong. Shock of shocks. Perhaps her suspicion of me is understandable, but she seems to be avoiding looking at suspects other than those that are getting the most attention. And she's really been staying under the radar. The problem is, she seems to go with the tide.

I'm sure some could accuse me that I am being hypocritical, but I really feel that I am not.

And this makes me feel a bit odd:

At least I was right about one thing. SPaM was innocent. I told you not to lynch him. :(

Seems to me like a 'told you so' that screams 'look at me, I'm so innocent!' Doesn't sit well with me.

Unfortunately that's all I have time for right now. I'll be back to look at other people when I can.

[Celuien]

Seems to me like a 'told you so' that screams 'look at me, I'm so innocent!' Doesn't sit well with me.
Fine with me. I've been wrong about enough things so far that I just feel like celebrating being right about one thing. Even if it doesn't do him any good, it means that I wasn't fooled by a Wolfman Sauce again. *shrugs*

As for going back and forth between you and Caran, I quite simply found you both suspicious. And if it's obvious, well, why not suspect the obvious? Awfully embarrassing to miss what's staring you in the face, isn't it? I can't help it if I'm thinking the same way as others. And I can't cobble together a case against someone I don't suspect merely to pick a less obvious player so that I won't be accused of going with the tide. That, my friend, would be wolvish. *shrugs again*

Oh, and yes, I'm so innocent it hurts. :D

[Caranlondien]

I disagree on the 'un-thought-out' bit, at least on my part. I assure you, my vote for him was not purely out of a rush to save you. Sorry, but it wasn't. (considering you hadn't revealed yourself yet when I voted).
Actually, I meant un-thought-out on my part. At the end there, TGWBS and I were both willing to vote for someone else, but didn't have time to compare and contrast. While I was somewhat suspicious of SpM all along, at that point my vote for him had really just been to save myself.

Now, an analysis:

Lommy
Day One
Post #31: Thinks the Changeling will mostly help us - even as a wolf, may mess up wolves' plans. Points out they might also mess up the gifteds' plans. Doesn't like retractable votes

#33: Says everyone's babbling nonsense. Thinks Cailin's acting lessn reasonable than usual, but that's probably because of the retractable votes. Thinks it will be easy for the wolves to hide on Day One. Thinks it's likely there will be a wolf-on-wolf vote, which will then be retracted.

#40: Agrees with Lhuna that she doesn't like having someone (the Changeling) hold this much power, but says we'll just have to deal with it. Emphasizes the Changeling should play on the good side. Points out Day One isn't useful on Day One, but it will be useful later.

#41: Clarifies statement about retractable votes for Boro. Says she didn't say they weren't useful, but just doesn't like people toying with them.

#71: Corrects SpM characterization of her - says she isn't very anti-Day One, just doesn't enjoy the experience on the Day, but thinks they're useful later on. Agrees with Mithalwen that frivolous voting and changing is suspicious. Agrees with Tom that Boro's vote changing is suspicious; compares it to situation with Form in a previous life.

#73: Suggests we all post our animals, but doesn't think we're likely to find clues from the narrations.

#76: Puts forward the idea that she does put forward ideas ( :D )... Clarifies that Fin has played in one game before. Asks for comments on her suggestion of revealing our animals. Takes issue with SpM classifying Tom as someone who has maintained a presence, since he'd only made one post.

#82: Says SpM's response to her has satisfied her somewhat.

#90: Votes for Boro, referencing the suspicions she voiced in #71. Says she'll have her eye on SpM as well.

Day Two
#140: Says morm really worries her. Voices suspicion because of his unusual behavior, but goes on to say it would be stupid for a wolf-morm to act like that. Also says Caran looks really bad, but doesn't want to voice too much suspicion until she's read through herself, so she's not swayed by public opinion.

#153: Says that if lmp is right that morm is suffering from werewolf-weariness, it might indicate morm is an ordo, as that affliction mainly affects ordos. Disagrees with SpM, who says she was the main protagonist behind Boro's lynching.

#155: Votes for morm, saying she's not entirely sure she'll be back, but says if she does come back she'll look for other suspects.

#164: Skirmish with morm, who had said she seemed to be grasping at any straw to find suspicion. Points out that the aim of the game is to suspect people. Responds to morm that if she twisted SpM's words the Day before, it was unintentional.

#170: Hesitant to voice suspicions on TGWBS, as she's helped get him lynched before only to find he's innocent (I can sympathize :rolleyes: ) Still suspicious of morm. Also suspicious of Caran. Says Fea needs to be watched, and Mith's and lmp's lack of substance makes her uneasy. Also warns to watch out for Fin who may be a wolf trying to hide behind helpfulness.

#194: Responds to Mith, who said if she were a wolf she'd kill Sauce. Says Mith could be double-bluffing, or they could both be wolves. Tells SpM the timing of her vote for Boro was because she had to go to sleep.

#198: Says a wolvish SpM would be scary, but not that scary. Says her vote for morm stands, as she thinks an innocent Caran would be helpful to the village.

My thoughts: Her first post seems quite innocent. The only suspicious thing I see is that she was clearly thinking from the wolves' point of view - if I were a wolf, I'd fear the Changeling; even in situations where they're on the wolves' side, they have the potential to mess up their plans. Her suspicion of morm is understandable, as many of us feel he's been acting suspicious, and he was attacking her with rather weak points.

In short, I don't find Lommy all that suspicious. If she's managing not to look suspicious to me, does that mean she must be a wolf? :D

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

My comfort level is high with their innocence:

Caran
Mith
Nogrod

I'm not much worried:

Celuien
Lhuna
Cailín

Grandma, what large ears you have?

Durelin
TGWBS
Lommy
morm
lmp

Who in the world are you? I just don't have any idea:

Tom
Fin

Durelin: Eh. Sorry, but you aren't important enough to warrant my attention.
Lommy: You aren't either.

TGWBS, Morm, LMP: I trust you not.

++LMP

Werewolf fatigue my foot.

[Caranlondien]

Sorry if I end up double- or triple-posting, but I'm trying to be helpful while I have the time - tomorrow (RL) I'll be travelling, and may not be here for the latter part of the Day.

Concerning Celuien, so far to me, her behavior has been screaming "innocent". In her first post, she didn't even remember there were retractable votes. Either that was a brilliant wolvish ploy, or it was a sign of her innocence. I've been leaning towards the latter. Still, I think she should be watched, as she could be a fiendish wolf. But I would oppose her being lynched toDay.

I still plan to go over TGWBS if I have time, but for now I'll skip him and move on to Cailin. I'm doing this because TGWBS's posts right at the end of yesterDay seemed earnestly rushed. If I were a wolf trying to gain support by saving an innocent, I wouldn't be feeling rushed to get posts in. By no means am I saying this means he is innocent, but I'm trying to put my energy into the most useful areas.

EDIT: cross-posted with Fea

[mormegil]

Let me just say that if I were a wolf nobody would be suspecting me currently. If this sounds concited...fine, so be it. However Caran you miss an important point about Lommy. In her vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times. She does a remarkable job at picking the flavor of the day. Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.

[littlemanpoet]

I have been to the next village where there is a certain Arts Festival that I refuse to miss. Back now. A quick post follows of various mullings. After posting that, I'll go back and read what you all have said so far toDay.

Alas for the loss of the innocent Spawn. These werewolves know she's dangerous. What did she say? Or were they just being preemptive, I wonder?

I'm quite sorry to have started the bandwagon against an innocent lynchee. That said, we need to take a look at who jumped on the bandwagon. Whether there was a werewolf in the mix needs to be considered. My motivation for voting for SPM was as given: I didn't trust him. It could be argued that his 'family' had it coming and can no longer depend on a good reputation to carry through. Two of his three most recent forbears were a werewolf and a traitor. That has made him infamous, not unlike the position Feanor's family has been in for generations.

Mithalwen's motivation was apparently that she found my reasoning convincing. The last two voters were trying to save Caranlondien from being lynched ... if she's actually the hunter; more on that later. The middle voter ?___________? is perhaps the most suspicious. Motivation:______________________?

Regarding Caranlondien: She may be the Hunter. If so, we have a known innocent that the werewolves must kill with loss to their ranks. They may not dare - yet - in which case we must use her as best we can. But there's a problem. Caran may be a werewolf claiming to be the Hunter. If she is not the real Hunter, the real Hunter has enough sense to stay under cover in order to be most useful, because, following this line of thinking, if Caran's not the Hunter, she's a shockingly bold werewolf, knowing that a wise hunter will stay undercover for a while, thus duping the lot of us to think she's innocent for a bunch of Days. So how do we go about proving or getting Caran to prove that she's the Hunter? Or would it be best to figure that she's probably not that shockingly bold? I tend to think that she probably is the Hunter, but I wanted to bring up the possibility that she's not, just to get us thinking about it.

One more comment about personal style. It could be argued that one of the things that got SPM lynched was what appeared to be the arrogant scorn with which he responded to other players' explanations in defense. His is an analytical mind and it would appear that he has no patience, nor, it would seem, can allow for the possibility that those who use a less analytical approach might have something worth contributing. But he and his ilk have been proven quite clearly wrong. In the most recent incident in a certain seaside village, one of the least analytical villagers was spot-on but was shouted down by the analytical thinkers who arrogated their own style as the only proper one. Had they but listened to this one, who happened to know the people about whom she was speaking much better than her analytical counterparts, the village would have been saved. But they didn't. And they died.

So..... Let's not disregard anybody's contributions on the grounds that there's is not like ours. That's foolish, and any village that does so, deserves to get eaten.

'Nuff said.

[Caranlondien]

Cailín
Day One
#8: Jokingly accuses TGWBS

#28: Doesn't think the Changeling will be a threat to the village until later on. Randomly votes for Lhuna.

#69: Points out she is rarely reasonable on Day One. Says the Changeling will only hurt the village in a few hypothetical situations. Makes a few comments about retractable votes. Says she doesn't find Formendacil suspicious.

#70: Says she is not suspicious of Celuien, Spawn, Nogrod, Tom, or Fin.

#81: Says SpM's categorization of the village makes sense, but since the wolves are chosen randomly, and most people seem to be behaving normally, most people just stereotypically belong to the category they're in. Notes that Caran doesn't normally belong in the category she's in.

#100: Gives a run-down of how she's feeling about each member of the village. Says she will probably vote for Caran, Mith, Form, or Nilp.

#102: Votes for Form, noting there is little to go on and she doesn't suspect anyone all that strongly.

Day Two
#141: Says Caran does not strike her as decidedly wolvish. Says Boro's innocence was pretty obvious to her. Defends her switch of vote from Spawn to Form. Inclined to trust SpM. Agrees somewhat with Lommy's points about morm.

#144: Can't find the post TGWBS was referring to (Not sure what she's talking about here). Thinks Caran would be more careful of a wolf.

#161: Wants to know why spawn and morm were suspicious of TGWBS.

#207: Annoyed with Fea's attitude, may vote for her out of sheer annoyance but will try to find a more likely candidate.

#209: Identifies top three lynch candidate. morm she rules out because she refuses to believe a wolf-morm would sink so low. Annoyed with Fea but thinks she's probably an ordo. Doesn't find Caran that suspicious, but votes for her because the village needs to know her identity.

#246: Changes vote to SpM, saving Caran.

My thoughts: She really seems normal to me. I don't know if that's indicative of her being innocent, as she might just be a very skilled wolf. Her original vote for me despite her lack of suspicion of me looks bad, but I can see an innocent doing the same thing in that situation, if she really didn't suspect the other two. So I'm not sure what to think about her.

[littlemanpoet]

[b]Grandma, what large ears you have?

Durelin
TGWBS
Lommy
morm
lmp

TGWBS, Morm, LMP: I trust you not.

++LMP

Werewolf fatigue my foot.
Come come, Feanor. I give you the benefit of the doubt, and this is the best you can do? Pish posh. I hope there's an explanation of this vote and these unsupported accusations somewhere down the line that I haven't read yet, at the very least for entertainment value... :p

[Caranlondien]

In her vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times. She does a remarkable job at picking the flavor of the day. Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.
This is a valid argument. But the post before she voted for you, she didn't seem to be saying she really thought you were innocent. So it doesn't seem contradictory to me. Still, like I said, you have some points there. Besides which, jokes aside, the very fact that I don't have a negative feeling about her might indicate some extra carefulness on her part. So I'm certainly not letting her off the hook. And going back over your points against her, it is true that she has made some subtle twists of words. But she isn't one of my top suspects toDay. That could change, though... we'll have to see her behavior.

After sitting through two analyses, I'll revert for a bit to my random musings:

Mith has come up as a suspect, and I have some suspicions of her, too (Really, who don't I have some suspicions of?). I of all people won't ignore RL issues, so I want to give her a fair chance. But I'll be taking a closer look.

morm I suspected in a former life, but didn't follow through on my suspicions, and he turned out to be a wolf. So I'm tempted to follow my gut this time. But the truth is, it's impossible to tell with him. Well, not impossible for some people (ahem, one person)... ;)

Fea I keep going back and forth on. One minute she's a cunning wolf, the next she's a cryptic innocent. I just can't read her.

lmp I'm still inclined to trust. For now...

Nogrod I want to trust also. I've been satisfied with him so far... seems like normal.

Now with my luck, lmp and Nogrod will both be wolves. :rolleyes:

[Caranlondien]

If so, we have a known innocent that the werewolves must kill with loss to their ranks.
I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.

[Caranlondien]

I have to go to sleep, and I'll check back in when I get up in 8 or 9 hours. For now, here's how I'm feeling about the village:

Not a Likely Werewolf
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp
Fin

Need to be watched, but not on my suspect list toDay...yet
Lhuna
TGWBS
Durelin
Lommy
Tom

Suspicious of
Fea
Cailín
Mith
morm

Note that I haven't gone over Tom very closely at all. Lhuna is very nearly on my suspicions list. And Fin and lmp I'm not quite so sure about the innocence of. And (though I doubt anyone would do this anyway) by no means should this be taken as seriously as a certain former wizard's "List of Doom"; I know no more than anyone, and can only be seen as an objective opinion.

[mormegil]

Well this will be an incomplete analysis as I left many of my notes at work but I will do what I can currently. I have some points that have aroused my suspicion about Lommy and will outline some of them here.

Post 71 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=471179&postcount=71) piqued my interest and aroused my suspicion substantially. It was one of those where I feel like she is intentionally twisting what is being said. She doesn't seem to want to understand what is being said by SpM.

Post 76 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=471191&postcount=76) here again she seems to twist what SpM said and uses it against him. What SpM said was very benign and yet she seems to go over the handle a bit. SpM addressed this a in post 80 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=471196&postcount=80). SpM stated fairly well how I feel about this post and we know SpM is innocent and can therefore be trusted in his intent, not necissarily his assesment but we know he didn't have any ulterior motives.

Post 90 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=471217&postcount=90) gives a weak reason for voting for Boromir and gives herself an out. Just like she did with me in post 155 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=471632&postcount=155). While I gave the link I will quote one thing too.

I'm a bit wary of him plus I'm no admirer of his current playing style.

If I will be back, as I probably will, I will take another look at the village and find some real suspects.
If not this is it for toDay.

She wanting to kill me because of my playing style and gives herself an out too. She says if she comes back she will look for some real suspects yet when she comes back I don't see her do that. She admits I'm not a real suspect but I appear to be an easy target so she goes for me. If I was lynched nobody would think it horribly suspicious to vote for me that early on. Voting somebody on 'playing style' in not very acceptable to me in that we all have our own and valid styles. If I am suspicious and you can find a reason, fine vote for me but not for this petty dribble.

Post 93 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=471221&postcount=93) Boromir gives a good arguement for her and I like his insight of 'fence riding'. My thought is that she takes 'the path of least resistance' which is a great way for a wolf to blend in. She's vocal and forward yet doesn't every stick her neck out too much. She's calculating in her attacks. I don't trust her at all.

[Findëasëa]

Although there have been a lot of comments about LMP, I do not think there has been an analysis. (I apologize for the length)
Day One:
#17- Just mentioned that he was there and reading
#18- Gives random suspicions of people and comments that nothing noteworthy has been said yet.
#37- Votes for Form, saying “I just don't trust him. Lupine. Wolvish. Sneak.” No further explanation provided.
Day One: LMP did not contribute any ideas on day one. It may have been a busy day for him, but the lack of substance in his posts was obvious. Nothing at all that was potentially damaging was said, but also nothing was said that could make him look better. Overall, this day was a ‘safe’, but noticeable day for LMP.

#132- Comments about various people.
1) He thinks that Spawn may be a werewolf, as he finds the theories on this presented by TGWBS and SPM are worthy of consideration.
2) He does not think the possibility of Lommy’s guilt is worth consideration yet, as he finds the behavior others classify as ‘suspicious’ consistent with how she usually acts.
3) He refers to a post by SPM for reasoning as to why he finds Caran suspicious.
4) He thinks that Durelin should still be considered, as she might be a reckless wolf.
5) He then says that we should keep an eye on SPM, as although he may sound innocent, he may be guilty.
6) He refers back to a post by Celuien (129), saying that she has made points that have him ‘taking notice.’ (This post is an analysis of Caran’s actions). He then votes for Caran.

#137(In response to a post by Fin about how the wolves probably are trying to fly under the radar and are not taking risks.)
1) He notes that he sees Fin’s point and then lists all of the players with their posting frequency from the person with the most, to the one with the least. He does not claim that the number of votes is particularly telling, only that it might point towards who is trying to fly under the radar.
2) He thinks that since Nogrod, Durelin, and Caran are probably innocent as they have drawn undue attention to themselves.
3) He defends the change of his vote, saying that it was spurred by new ideas brought to light.
4) He is still suspicious of Spawn. He cites points brought up by SPM and TGWBS. He hunches from these comments that at least one of the wolves voted for Boro.
5) He changes his vote to Spawn.

#147- Comments that he, possibly along with Morm, is suffering ‘werewolf weariness.’ He explains, saying that he is still interested in the game, but just that the thought process is taking a while to catch up. He then comments that differences in playing style are probably due to retractable votes. He says that it ‘puts a little pressure on those suspected’
#163- He thinks that Spawn overreacted to his retractable vote, and thinks this is even more suspicious.

#213
1) LMP quotes Lommy. (Lommy earlier commented that she is getting more and more worried about LMP’s behavior, which she thinks is ‘a lot more nonsense than usual’.) LMP responds, saying the comment is very vague, and asks for clarification.
2) He then inserts a quote from SPM, which he found a very bold statement. He cites earlier experiences, and argues that SPM is a wolf because of the fact that his actions are consistent with those a wolf SPM would take.
3) He responds to a statement made by SPM about Spawn’s reaction to LMP’s vote for her. (In 163 LMP said that he thought Spawn overreacted, SPM counters, saying that he thought it was a reasonable response, as he felt that LMP did not give enough reasoning for the vote for Spawn.) LMP defends his vote, saying that he did give reasons.
4) He then quotes some Tom’s comments regarding Morm’s playing style. LMP defends the actions of Morm in question by explaining that they are typical of Morm, and that he was trying to find wolves. He says that it would be a waste for someone (in this case Tom) to waste a lynch vote because they were not aware of what was going on.
5) He goes on to put in a quote from Fea “I'm very intentionally playing the role of a quiet villager. Or at least trying to do so. Let me do it in peace and I might be able to help you.” LMP notes that “This seems for real to me.” I interpreted this to mean that he thought that Fea a genuine innocent. He sees SPM’s response to this comment as aggressive. He finds that this is further evidence that SPM is guilty. He believes that a wolfish SPM is the kind to “pick a few likely villagers who he is rather sure he can turn into scapegoats, and ride them for all they're worth, making sure not to allow them to get lynched and proven innocent until it's well along in the game and they have served their purpose.”
6) He changes his vote from Spawn to SPM (At this time there were no votes for SPM).

#219-He quotes Mith, (Mith- This strategy makes you so vulnerable if it backfires that I will chance trusting you). He comments that he hopes her trust of his plan is not in vain for both of their sakes.

Day 2 Analysis:
There is a huge difference in the nature of the posts from day one to day two. He is extremely more verbose. Due to the volume of comments that LMP made, I will also separate my comments based on posts.

(#132) What I find unsettling about his first batch of comments about people is the fact that he refers back directly to other people’s theories three times without giving his own interpretation. This seems like a way for him to diminish accountability and to test the water to see if anyone will bite. He does give some ideas of his own, but they are broad. By the end of the day, he votes for all of the people he mentions in this list as suspicious (Caran, Spawn, and SPM). On the one hand, this looks bad, he could have set up these so as to justify votes later, and make them not look like they appeared at random. On the other hand, two of these people are proven innocent now, and the other is quite probably innocent. Would the wolves draw attention to one of their number in this way?

(#137)LMP’s next post was the one in which he changed his vote to Spawn. For the second time, he cites directly points brought up by other people. This might just be his style, but it worries me. The fact that the votes are retractable should bear on this issue though, so I am not sure how heavily it should weigh when considering guilt.

(#147)- His explanations regarding both state of mind and playing style seem odd to me, but I think that he has a valid point about the retractable voting changing people’s style.

(#213) I am really not sure about how to interpret this post. It did aid in the downfall of SPM, but would not have been sucessful if Caran had not revealed he would not have died. He loudly declares his belief that SPM is guilty. He bases his arguments in experience at first. His arguments seem valid. The only thing that seems strange to me is the sureness that he puts this statement forth. I am not sure that this would be a wolfish approach, as he stood up to take on at full strength the accountability of this accusation. This is at odds with his earlier approach, which seemed to lessen accountability. It would be quite a bold move to make.
A lot of his earlier posts seemed quite suspicious to me, but something about the manner that he approached his argument against SPM appears innocent to me. I am still suspicious of him, but much less so than before. I will wait to hear more from him today.

[Cailín]

I see I finally gathered some suspicion for being in the right place at the right time. I am extremely sorry innocent Saucy got lynched, but I was suspicious of him yesterDay and when it was a choice between known innocent Caran (for I believed her instantly) and unknown Saucy, it wasn’t hard to make. I didn’t have time to jump in and make everyone switch votes, so I did what I had to do.

Indeed, Morm, you are a skeptic. I'm just genuinely heroic. :D

I am currently suspicious of the following people:

LMP
Tom
Mith
Fin
Durelin

in no particular order. I am rather unsuspicious of Mormegil, Nogrod, Caran and TGWBS due to events yesterDay. The rest are floating sort of in between and could go either way toDay.

Now I wish to reread & analyse Spawn’s posts. She was definitely under some suspicion yesterDay. She must have gotten something right to be a wolf target at this point.

[Cailín]

Well, Dancing Spawn’s posts reveal little enough. Her main suspects were Mith and TGWBS, and if the wolves thought her to be a Seer, I think it would primarily look bad for the former.

Who have we got left?

Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Fea - confectionist
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Findëasëa (from now called Fin) - alpaca herder
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin – ninja

Among these people are four gifteds still (if you include the Changeling) and three wolves. Basically, if we would lynch a random person, chances would be higher it’s a Gifted than a wolf currently. We must avoid this. Here is me thinking aloud or
a remarkable and unique insight into the brains of world famous tragedienne Cailín:

# 1
Lhuna is one of the wolves

Not completely impossible. Lhuna is behaving much more level-headed than usual. She gave us a lot of tentative suspicions yesterDay, also shifting focus back to Fea. Now if Lhuna is a wolf, she is rather safe from the lynching mob. We usually cut her some slack due to her terrible timezone disease. As long as she does nothing terribly horrendous, we let it slide. Well, she has done nothing terrible: her votes and suspicions are still on the safe side. She believed in the innocence of Caran and Spawn from the start… if Lhuna is a wolf, she’s playing her cards right. Because of previous experiences with her, I don’t think she is (this is meant more nicely than it seems, really!).

# 2

Durelin and Tom are wolves.

Durelin starts the first Day by voting randomly for Saucepan Man. As something told me this was traditional and as more people had cast random votes before that, I found the amount of attention this vote got rather baffling. Then she changes her vote to Tom, at a point where it is unlikely he will get any more votes. Now that seems like a safe wolf on wolf vote.
Tom only posted once that Day, voting for Boromir with some reasoning. Not decidedly wolvish, but not un-wolvish either.

The Day after, Durelin immediately gets the possible bold wolf stamp. Still, rather surprising, as her random vote for SpM did not seem so bold to me. I think –personally- she had not anticipated the strong reactions to her randomness.

There was no need for the Wolves to take any risks yesterday.

Saucy’s words. They may be true, but I don’t know. Anyway, Durelin proceeds to express some mild suspicion of Saucy (actually more of a theory concerning Saucy looking good after the one he defended turned out innocent). She then in a rather long post votes for Saucy, expecting not to join a bandwagon, but unknowingly she did. Reading back I’m starting to find Durelin less suspicious, but she is not off my suspect list yet. That’s twice she meant to cast a safe vote. She changed her style from random and quirky to reasonable and helpful in one day. She also came across as quite insecure all the time. This may be the sign of an innocent poking left and right, it could also be the sign of a wolf not sure what to do with herself.

Now Tom posts quite a lot Day 2, including some reasons to kill Formendacil (an innocent helping out or a wolf revealing as much as he can without revealing too much? Sometimes the best strategy for a wolf is to be as honest as possible). At first, he expresses no to little suspicion of Caran. Then he admits to being slightly swayed by the amount of suspicion she’s getting, especially because of Morm’s analysis. But then, he is also suspicious of morm himself, with the style change theory and all.

He then provides us with a long analysis of Saucy’s behaviour. This clears SpM for him, though he reminds us to keep watchful if Saucy is indeed trying to take control.

He continues with more suspicion of Mormegil. Then he abandons that theory again, trusting Saucy’s judgment, and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.

Only he does not. He votes for Mormegil as the quiet wolf. Well, this seems to me an extremely flip floppy Day and even though he first states we need be mindful to not let Saucy take over, he is following him. It could be a great strategy for a wolf: get into the good books of someone as Saucy –knowing that he were innocent- without voting for the major lynching candidate Caranlondien, who is also innocent. Though he has been helpful, I will be keeping a close eye on him. This is mostly because I think Mormegil is innocent (he has fooled me before, mind you) so not sure whether it holds for the rest of you.

# 3

Littlemanpoet is a wolf.

And he could with right be called a bold one. Poor man is suffering from werewolf weariness (that some kind of disease that comes from being fanged for extended periods of time?). Anyway, the first Day his contributions can be mostly disregarded. He does vote for Formendacil, who is to be Night two’s kill, which may be interpreted as a double bluff. That’s not above or beneath Elempi, of course.

Day 2 he votes for Caranlondien and Spawn (both innocent) in rapid succession. Now Spawn did find this rather suspicious and I tend to agree. I also say it’s reckless. Post #163 he still stands firmly by his vote for Spawn, but then follows #213, giving birth to a rather astonishing bandwagon against SpM. Now I must say that –as is evident in my voting post for Caran yesterDay- I was starting to get the same concerns about SpM being possibly wolvish and Elempi’s post did strike me as well… not insensible.

If Elempi is wolvish, he is, as I said, extremely bold. Now considering werewolf weariness, this seems actually quite logical. If you are weary, tis quite fun to create a few risks for yourself, or try something new. On the other hand, I am just not sure whether Elempi would really be that flip floppy aggressive.

Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.

Final theory # 4

Mithalwen is a wolf.

Now I quite strongly get the feeling Mith may be a wolf, though Mormegil says to trust his judgement in that she is innocent.

Let’s see for ourselves, shall we?

Now Mith has real life issues going on, so it makes sense her contribution is a little lower and more erratic than expected. However, it’s not about quantity or quality really, it’s about what she does. Day One the only things worth mentioning seem: she defends SpM quite strongly, believing his voters to be quite suspicious. She votes semi-randomly for Fea, because she cannot read her.
Day 2 she comments more on Fea, mostly finding her innocent because of the decided lack of breath-taking stunts going on. (Now I don’t think Fea is being careful at all, but she’s currently not the topic of discussion).

Mith here points out that Sauce would be dead if she were a wolf. Knowing Mith, I may be inclined to believe this statement.

She finds Tom and Lommy slightly suspicious and Durelin and Caranlondien much more so. She votes for the latter. However, after Elempi’s post, she makes quite a remarkable U-turn and changes her vote to SpM, who previously was rather on the innocent end of her observations. What alarms me even more is that she claims that if LMP is wrong, it will backfire on him, not her. Hmm… Mith seems like herself in one way, but I am not about to underestimate her. I know she’s cleverer than she acts a great deal of the time. She’s not off the list.

--

I am running out of time…

Fea I am completely clueless about. Completely.

Celuien… hm… I don’t know. She’s quieter. In fact, I think she may be suffering from WW fatique as well.

Lommy seems rather innocent looking overall.

I do not trust Fin, but find her not the most suspicious either. I have not analysed her yet, though.

Well, I'll be back later. Don't kill anyone in my absence.

[Celuien]

Celuien… hm… I don’t know. She’s quieter. In fact, I think she may be suffering from WW fatique as well.
RL fatigue, actually, since you mentioned it. Hours currently about (plus or minus a half hour) 8-5:30. Almost non-stop. Lunch is a lecture. Makes it sort of hard to get here during the workday. For perspective, the deadline is at 6 my time.

Back in a few hours.

[Mithalwen]

Well I give up on anyone ever believing me since Mith is widely regarded as being somewhere between flaky and barking mad and whatever I do is usually regarded as suspicious wheter it be stats, or hunches, but he simple fact is, that as an innocent, I don't have a clue what is going on... and my cluelessness increases rather than the reverse which is disappointing.

I, perhaps, stupidly did a last flip back before logging off after voting last night. Also stupidly considering my own experience as a mod, I didn't expect such a last minute flurry of activity. My vote for Caran was justifiable .. she admits she had tried ot look suspicious but I wasn't entirely happy with it. But it was late, I wanted to get home. So it would have to do. Then I flip back and LMP reminds me of a certain episode in recent history. It occurs that I have been good at spotting SpM as a cobbler .. when he doesn't know the score .... and that if he did know who was who because he was a wolf he might seem more innocent.

So LMP comes along, speaks with such certainty that I decide on a whim to go along. Caranlondien's fate seemed assured already so I thought it would be interesting to see how SPM reacted to a bit of suspicion ...possibly more helpful than a more or less unanimous vote for Caranlondien.

I didn't really expect the lynching to change and it hadn't occured that Caran was the hunter. It is probably better we have lost an ordo though an "outed" Hunter has little more power than an ordo since the woves won't touch em.

[Mithalwen]

Cailin, thanks for the backhanded compliment I think... I am not acting less clever than I am... I am sorry my heart isn't in it as much as usual. I am so tired thanks to yet more upset preventing a decent nights sleep again that I feel that I am not functioning well - in the new mother or a junior doctor league. I still want to see it through but part of me would be relieved.

I am a baffled, tired and re ordo at the moment. I have posted openly my thoughts and opinions, possibly tactically stupid but at least I am out there. Why shouldn't I U-Turn? I never claimed ot be Mrs Thatcher. I don't know who is who, the wolves do, the gifteds may. I am neither. If someone seems to know something defineite why is it alarming to give them a chance? As I said it is a dangerous claim to make...

[Cailín]

All right, Mith.

Whom do you suspect now?

[littlemanpoet]

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.
Oh yeah. That's right. Well, in that case, we will probably lose you after this Night. A shame to lose our Hunter so quickly. :( Oh! There is this possibility, though, that a werewolf won't dare try to kill you on the off-chance that you pick one of them to hunt. So you may be around longer than one Night.

Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.Why? This didn't quite follow from your reasoning, as far as I could tell; at least, not as a necessary, virtually mathematical correlation. Perhaps in terms of likelihoods, it's as possibly correct a conclusion as any. My problem with it is that I am inclined to trust Morm, and knowing my own innocence, I therefore tend to give Mith the benefit of the doubt; which makes what you say hard for me to accept.

Mith's two most recent posts are just too guileless for werewolvery. So it seems to me.

[Cailín]

Elempi, I am not saying that you could not both be innocents.

I'm thinking that, if you both are wolves, Mith would not have changed her vote so quickly.

I agree: Mith's latest posts have rather convinced me of her innocence (at least enough to give her the benefit of the doubt today). It does not automatically follow that you are a wolf though, and I never said that.

[Celuien]

Those last posts convince me as well. Removing Mith from my suspect list...

I have a lot of stuff to catch up on besides WW. So, bear with me a little longer today. I'm planning to take a closer look at TGWBS, who's been escaping my notice, and morm. Possibly one or two others as well.

[the guy who be short]

I'm here!

Two major things happened yesterday, and though people have touched on both, I'm surprised at how little has been said.

The first was Caran coming out of the closet concerning her Huntress tendencies. The second, in conjunction, was the rushed lynching of SpM.

Now then, it might just be me, but I think Cailin's and my actions yesterday would probably exonerate us. I was quite expecting Cailin to die tonight.

Why do our actions exonerate us? Because we saved the Hunter. Perhaps a wolf would do such a thing to gain trust - but it would be an incredibly stupid wolf, and here's why. Caran is somebody we can ALL trust now. Her opinions are definitely innocent. Anything anybody else says could be a wolf speaking, but not her. She gives villagers a safe base to rally around. Objectively speaking, it would be better if we all trusted her opinions instead of forming our own, but obviously people would resist this. Certainly her opinions should be considered more important than anybody else's. Sorry to pressure you, Caran, but you should get as much analysis as you can done today.

That said, Caran is definitely the Hunter.


But there's a problem. Caran may be a werewolf claiming to be the Hunter. If she is not the real Hunter, the real Hunter has enough sense to stay under cover in order to be most useful, because, following this line of thinking, if Caran's not the Hunter, she's a shockingly bold werewolf, knowing that a wise hunter will stay undercover for a while, thus duping the lot of us to think she's innocent for a bunch of Days.
False. If she were not the Hunter, the real Hunter would come out. We would lynch one; if it were a wolf, good. If it were the Hunter, we would lynch the other the next day.


Oh yeah. That's right. Well, in that case, we will probably lose you after this Night. A shame to lose our Hunter so quickly. :( Oh! There is this possibility, though, that a werewolf won't dare try to kill you on the off-chance that you pick one of them to hunt. So you may be around longer than one Night.
Nope. The longer the wolves leave her alive, the more likely she'll take a wolf with her. They'll take her tonight unless our Ranger has been cunning.

More in an hourish. My next post should contain suspicion of morm and a vote of unconfident confidence in LMP.

[Lhunardawen]

Just got here. Got a bit lost on the way.

I did a bit of skimming, though, and I must say that I missed being suspected. So long as it doesn't get me wrongfully lynched, because I am as innocent as innocent goes.

Will be back after catching up completely, and with a quick vote.

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm here.

Probably innocent
Nogrod
Celuien
Caranlondien - I believe her claim

Not very suspicious of
Cailín
Lhuna
Mith - her few latest posts are quite convincing
Fin
Tom
LMP - after rereading his posts I didn't find anything especially suspicious there

Totally unknown
Durelin
TGWBS
Fea
I can't interpret their behaviour.

Wary of
morm

She [Thinlómien] wanting to kill me because of my playing style and gives herself an out too. She says if she comes back she will look for some real suspects yet when she comes back I don't see her do that. She admits I'm not a real suspect but I appear to be an easy target so she goes for me. If I was lynched nobody would think it horribly suspicious to vote for me that early on. Voting somebody on 'playing style' in not very acceptable to me in that we all have our own and valid styles. If I am suspicious and you can find a reason, fine vote for me but not for this petty dribble.
So that's the problem with me? I found you a little suspicious plus I didn't like your playing style. As I didn't have any stronger suspicions, I voted you. I came back. I reread some things, but still saw you as the most suspicious person. Or did you miss this:
I'm leaving now. My vote stays the same as I suspect morm as much as my other main suspect Cara, and I feel an innocent Cara would be more useful to the village than an innocent morm with his current behaviour.? As to the playing style, I have nothing against your normal playing style, but I didn't like the way you played on Days 1 & 2.
I agree with you to some point that voting because of someone's playing style is rather stupid, but I also think that if there are many people one suspects as much, I think playing style can be taken into consideration, (which I did yesterday).

Care to explain what you mean? This is awfully vague, which is in its turn rather suspicious, although, Lommy, I suppose you tend to be vague, so maybe this is just you theorizing out loud. Either way, I'd appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of explaining what "nonsense" you're talking about? Thanks.I only meant that according to my little experiences you are theorising and making cases much more, so the way you played stroke me as odd. If you want me to comment your posts post by post and explain what I think about each one, feel free to ask me. I won't, anyway, do that unless requested, since I think it's a little help and just floods the thread (okay, it wasn't me the floodposter who said that :o) and takes my time.

Now I'm off to do a morm-analysis...

edit: xed with Celuien, TGWBS and Lhuna

[the guy who be short]

Just popping in. I was planning on doing a morm-analysis myself. If Lommy covers the points, fine; if she doesn't, I'll do it myself anyway.

I just have time to comment on LMP. LMP started the SpM bandwagon with what seemed like complete certainty. This makes me think he is innocent - he once aimed such a concerted attack on me. I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him. :p

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#12 - Says he's glad to see Kath dead and jokes about ww-meat.
#86 - Says he's in a hurry and he has a lot to catch up; votes TGWBS. Reason:
Man it feels good to have you back! You can be a Kath replacement :D .

Day 2
#133 - Suspects Cara (says she's nervous, reacts but not too strongly to accusations, tries to divert suspicion) and votes her.
#157 - Says he's catching up, confirms LMP's werewolf weariness comment. Says Thinlómien tries to grasp any straw that is moderately suspicious and claims she intentionally misunderstood SPM and twisted his words. Names Thinlómien, Cara and TGWBS as his top suspects, but gives no reasoning. Explains his absence.
#233 - Explains his RL hurries.
#239 - Quotes TGWBS: Morm - Caran is the hunter. Change your vote to SpM to save her, unless you don't believe her.
Nogrod - You can't get morm now. You too should change your vote. and says comments like that are the base of his suspicions of him.

Day 3
#261 - Is back, explains his ww weariness and his reasons to be in the game mainly being only that Kath is modding. Sums up general impressions. Suspects Cailín, TGWBS, Thinlómien and Durelin. Doesn't suspect Mith, Fea, Nogrod and Celuien.
#268 - Claims that if he was a wolf, no one would be suspecting him. Suspects Thinlómien and says she does a remarkable job at picking flavour of the day.
#275 - Analyses Thinlómien. Accuses her of twisting SPM's words, not understanding him, giving weak reasoning on Boromir-vote, voting morm because of playing style and "taking path of least resistance".

Conclusions up in a minute, and a few responses to him on passages I felt uneasy about...

[Celuien]

The Short One:

55: Apologies for late arrival. Lots of Pokemon talk. Thinks that day 1 is useless because innocents have nothing to work on. Will vote at random, says he will not retract his vote. Votes Cailin.
57: Says there’s an inconsistency in SPaM’s idea about the usefulness of day ones re finding clues in Kath’s narration.
61: Says the mod is impartial and there are no clues in the narration.
83: Doesn’t care about retractable votes, says he won’t use them because they shouldn’t be needed and he’s too lazy to make use of any advantage they may give. Says they make w
olf-spotting harder. Is apathetic about the Changling.
91: More Pokemon. Wants reasoning for Morm’s vote.
Here ends day one…
Day two…
116: Joke about Formy and shorts. Says he notices Durelin (Anti-retractable votes. Pro-random. Good.), Caranlondien (Easily swayed by others. Bad) and Findeasea (Good reasons against Boro. Post 108).
118: Thinks Formy was killed for giving no information so the village can confuse itself, or (less likely) to cast suspicion on Saucy, LMP or Cailin. Suspicious of Spawn and Cailin.
122: Thinks Formy was killed to prevent disruptions.
154: Thinks SpaM is making mistakes that mistakes don’t look good for him. Finds theories about Morm, LMP, Caran and Durelin intersesting, but will ignore it because he doesn’t know who to trust.
156: Summary of events leading to Boromir’s death.
165: Pokemon talk and thinks that SPaM is too tricksey for him to analyze effectively. Thinks Mormy is reluctant to voice worries that keep him on the suspect list.
169: La mort de Boromir, deuxième partie. Neutral towards Tom, but not sure what to think of him.
171: Doesn’t want to jump on minor details to make a case about wolvery because it leads to innocents dying. Defense of views on Caran, Cailin and Morm.
176: Doesn’t think Lommy is a wolf based on her attacks on Boro, suspects spawn a little.
197: Thinks morm is apathetic and unreasonable and that it would be good to kill him whether or not he’s a wolf. Votes for Mormegil.
221: Would be glad to kill SpM for being unfathomable. Not sure what to think of Caran, other than her being easily manipulated. Will consider switching to SpM.
228: Says Findeasea is pathetic for voting Mith (throwaway vote). Is inclined to switch to SpM, but doesn’t want to make a tie.
232: Switches vote to SpM to save Caran.
234: Tells Morm and Nogrod to change their votes to SpM to save Caran.
241: Rhetorical question about losing an innocent SpM versus the Hunter.
243: Would change back to Morm, but Caran would die if he did. Wants to know what Morm finds threatening about him.
249/250: More about voting for SpM/saving Caran.
Here ends day two…
Day three…
286: Thinks Cailin and he are exonerated by their efforts to save Caran.
289: Thinks LMP is innocent because of the certainty with which he started the SpM bandwagon, but will be careful not to listen to him due to LMP’s record of getting innocents lynched.

I find TGWBS rather unsuspicious. While I disagree with his claim that working to save Caran exonerates him - any intelligent wolf would have done the same thing to maintain cover and gain village trust - he says enough reasonable things and has overall behaved honestly enough (I think) that he doesn't really garner much suspicion from me.

Agree with the assessment of LMP. He doesn't strike me as a wolf. Same reasons as TGWBS. Agressively attacking innocent SPM was risky, and my opinion is that LMP would be better at staying undercover as a furry one than to try to get SPM lynched.

[Thinlómien]

The post #268 of mormegil's really worries me. In her [Thinlómien's] vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape . . .
I didn't say you were innocent in my opinion. I said that ww-weariness might point to your ordoness. A good point I didn't think about. But according to my experiences, this weariness usually occurs only with ordos. So should we conclude morm's most probably innocent? Or could he bluff here? I'm waiting for an explanation, whatever the case is.

. . . and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times. Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please. As to SpM, I never contributed to his death. I find this reasoning quite hollow.

[Lhunardawen]

Right. Now. Caran's the Hunter; believe her. The real Hunter would have come out if she wasn't. There have been quite a few scenarios similar to this in the past.

There are a lot of ways to use this info, I just realized. If I'm not mistaken, she can only bring someone with her to the grave if she is killed by the wolves, and not if she is lynched. And it's not as if we'll lynch her, anyway. So, how will the wolves use this? They have to be careful in killing her, even if she's already a revealed gifted and they're probably itching right now to get rid of her.

If Caran outrightly suspects a wolf, she would definitely not be killed that Night, unless the wolves are stupid enough to risk killing one of their own. If she suspects an innocent that Day, she is more likely to be killed the next Night since she will potentially be bringing an innocent down with her.

That's as far as I can go, and I wouldn't even try to counsel Caran about what her actions should be with this in mind. I'm sure any counsel from me will be directionless. :rolleyes:

Next up, SpM's death. That last-minute change-of-vote chaos last Night was the perfect spot for waiting wolves to hide in; they can easily pass off their votes for SpM as an attempt to save Caran. And they will be glad to do it, since, duh, they will be getting rid of SpM.

So who voted for SpM?

Elempi - the reason for his change of mind from dancing spawn (also an innocent) was interesting:
I cannot resist rabbiting on at length whenever I come to the village square. I generally find so much to talk about and comment on that I am almost compelled to pipe up. And morm and Elempi are usually the same. I don’t buy this werewolf fatigue thing and I am beginning to wonder if it is a tactic. Then again, they would be foolish Wolves indeed if they were both to use the same excuse for their quietitude. This is precisely the kind of bold in-your-face wolvish statement I've been waiting for from you, SPM. The lorebooks show that such a disregard for your fellow innocent villagers' state of mind was precisely the key that showed your ancestor's wolvishness. Nobody at that time saw it for what it was until too late. I am making sure nobody misses it this time. Thank you for slipping up in this fashion. I challenge you to vindicate yourself. But you are slippery, sir. Perhaps the only sufficient vindication may be your lynching or the seer declaring you innocent, since your very efforts to clear yourself will most likely be so full of loyerly misdirection and logic chopping that you persuade people against their better judgment that you are not the werewolf I strongly suspect you to be. It sounds so genuine to me, it's actually scary. Like it's too forward or something. A very bold move indeed for a wolf, and I have to admit one a wolvish Elempi wouldn't risk. He now moves lower in my suspicious list.


Mith - a change from Caran influenced by Elempi's vote: This strategy makes you so vulnerable if it backfires that I will chance trusting you A fair point, but it seems to pin the blame on Elempi too much, almost as if she was washing off her hands any responsibility in case Elempi was wrong.


Durelin - seemed flipfloppy reasoning to me: But he's a bit more aggressive than I've experienced him being...though subtlely. I may be waaaayyy off, but he is not sticking to his votes or his statements. This might be proof of his innocence, but it might not be. He doesn't even seem to be headed in a certain direction, as far as I can tell, and there is nothing wrong with that, except that it's Saucie. I feel compelled to 'wait and see,' and yet I must vote. I'd like to see if I get killed tonight...then I think everyone should keep a closer eye on Saucie, as I would be the second person he defended and then 'offed.' I do think he's a lote smarter than that, though. But I'm not sure if that necessarily has anything to do with it. A wolf victory can come in many forms. But I understand the need to vote right away without having any clear suspicions. That doesn't mean I'm letting you off the hook, though.


Caran - to save herself, of course.


tgwbs - a change from a reasonable vote for morm, to save Caran. A fair change, I suppose, since he didn't have any solid opinions on SpM, anyway. He sounded genuinely concerned about Caran's safety. No longer so suspicious as he was yesterDay.


Cailín - also to save Caran, and a fair vote since she said she didn't want to vote for morm yet, who was the other possible lynchee.

*dramatically wipes forehead*

But what stands out to me from this flurry of votes are those who seem not to want to get involved in the lynching of two innocents, as we know them now. Actually, that should be singular: Fin's vote for Mith. And yes, admittedly tgwbs presented the idea of it being a throwaway vote right after she cast it, but I just want to bring it up to everyone lest he forgets, because it's really worth noting.


And another thing, morm, could you please explain this? I noticed people wanted to know why I am suspicious of TGWBS...it's comments like these. Yes, yes...tgwbs also said it last Night. Sheesh, I'm such a leech.


Speaking of morm...perhaps I need to defend myself a little. After my ancestress's suicide in a village of the not-so-distant past, I want to make up and be a lot more helpful (at least in my perspective) this time. I hope there's nothing wrong with that. And there's no reason for me to be Lhoony since it's not a Full Moon. :D


Oh geesh, look at the time! I'll be back for a vote in a short while.

[Thinlómien]

(= conclusions on morm)

His Day1, which I regarded as suspicious doesn't make mee feel suspicious of him anymore. He seems just like a normal villager in a hurry.

His Day2 is a bit more worriesome. He doesn't give any reasons to his suspicions. As said before, it might be an answer-provoking strategy, but I still don't like it. It'd be a perfect cover for a wolf. And, suspicion of all those persons he mentioned had been expressed before. So the answer-provoking was in vain. Furthermore, those people were generally suspected so he even didn't bring new cases out.

His Day3 is not much better. More about the post #268 above. I don't like his analysis of me either. What kind of accusation is:
gives a weak reason for voting for Boromir
Are there non-weak reasonings on Day1s?

Final conclusion: I continue to be wary of him. He's my top suspect.

An add: I have been careless: #275 - Analyses Thinlómien. Accuses her of twisting SPM's words, not understanding him, giving weak reasoning on Boromir-vote, voting morm because of playing style and "taking path of least resistance".
It should read "not wanting to understand him".

[Caranlondien]

Mith's defense has convinced me for toDay. Cailín I also feel a bit better about after hearing more from her. Am I wrong, or do we have yet to hear from Fea toDay?

I'll have to rework my suspicions list...

Not a Likely Werewolf:
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp

Need to be watched, but not quite on my suspect list:
Lhuna
TGWBS
Cailín
Mith
Fin

Suspicious:
Tom
Lommy
morm

Can't read them at all, and therefore suspicious of them:
Fea
Durelin

This was done rather quickly... I'll be back in an hour with more, I hope.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm sorry, this is all I have time for (for the rest of) toDay:

Innocent, duh
Caran

Seems innocent
Celuien
Nogrod

Somewhere in between
Elempi
Cailín
tgwbs
Mith

Plain confusing/I don't know
Fea
tom
Lommy

Uh-oh
morm
Fin
Durelin

Now...Fin has been making a lot of sense then suddenly made that vote yesterDay. morm is starting to be himself but still not quite. Both would be very helpful if innocent.

I'll have to stick to my previous vote:

++DURELIN

See you tomorrow (I hope), fellow villagers.

[Thinlómien]

Need to be watched, but not on my suspect list toDay...yet
Lhuna
TGWBS
Durelin
Lommy
Tom
Suspicious:
Tom
Lommy
morm
:confused: What did I do to deserve this?

[the guy who be short]

Many of the points I wanted to make about morm have already been made. However, one or two remain.

The first is his constant willingness to lynch me with no reasoning whatsoever. It could, admittedly, have been some sort of ploy, but after three days it's got tiresome. Cough up some reasons, monkey-man. Why do comments such as telling you to switch votes - which, incidentally, I only made once - cause you to suspect me? Where and when do spawn and SpM make cases against me? TGWBS - I find highly suspicious and many good cases have been brought against him by SpM, Spawn, and others.You're incoherent, and it's making me suspect you.

Also,
Mith - Innocent!!!! Trust me on this one.Why should we trust you? It seems you're implying you're the Seer, which I find incredibly unlikely. Again, no reasoning. I don't like it.

Finally, why did you not try to save Caran yesterday? Nogrod had the excuse of mixing up his maths and thinking we could lynch you instead. You simply said I was making you suspicious and that was it.

++MORMEGIL

Because I suspect him, and repeated requests for logic have been systematically ignored. Maybe you'll respond now.

[the guy who be short]

Likely wolves:
Morm - reasoning above.
Fea - You may be busy, but input today was completely feeble. No reasoning whatsoever, just a vote for LMP.
Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.

Known innocent:
Caran

Likely innocent:
LMP
Cailin

Undecided:
Lhuna
Celuien
Lommy
Nogrod
Tom
Mith
Durelin

Now I'm off to look over what people have said about SpM's lynching.

[littlemanpoet]

I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.
Thanks for the words of confidence. Funny, your opinion of me is largely the same as mine of SPM. So, do you have a knack, Guy, for accusing wolves and getting them lynched? We shall see this game...

Just an observation: I'm seeing one of those typical skirmishes that we see between two players with markedly different styles: Morm & Lommy are really going after each other. What that usually means, based on my lorebooks, is that both are likely innocent and are strongly reacting to each other. Make of that what you will.

I'm willing to go with the general sense of the village, that Caran is the Hunter; as I said, I think it most likely.

A very bold move indeed for a wolf, and I have to admit one a wolvish Elempi wouldn't risk.Good to see you know me. But that doesn't mean I trust you ... yet. ;) You sound innocent, and there are others who seem more wolvish this time....

But what stands out to me from this flurry of votes are those who seem not to want to get involved in the lynching of two innocents, as we know them now. Actually, that should be singular: Fin's vote for Mith. And yes, admittedly tgwbs presented the idea of it being a throwaway vote right after she cast it, but I just want to bring it up to everyone lest he forgets, because it's really worth noting.Very true. I've been watching this one and (s)he seems to have all those earmarks that I find most disturbing: playing both sides against the middle, switching or casting suspicious looking votes, such close and careful reasoning in a post that you wonder what is being hidden. And so on.

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.

Must run. I have a Festival to go to again, so I must cast my vote now.

++ Findëasëa

[Caranlondien]

What did I do to deserve this?
Whoops, actually I didn't mean to put you under suspicious. I've moved Tom there based on a general feeling of suspiciousness, but now I'll go back and look over his posts more closely.

Not a Likely Werewolf:
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp

Need to be watched, but not quite on my suspect list:
Lhuna
TGWBS
Cailín
Mith
Fin
Lommy

Suspicious:
Tom
morm

Can't read them at all, and therefore suspicious of them:
Fea
Durelin

So right now I'm most suspicious of those last four.

[the guy who be short]

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.I must have amnesia. Either that, or you and morm are both wolves, LMP.

I've done a bit more reading and have come to an unfavourable conclusion of durelin due to long-winded and semi-existant reasoning when voting for SpM, and a positive view of Lhuna for talking a lot of good sense.


IMPORTANT

As I have said before, Caran's proven innocence is of immense importance. We should have used it a lot more today. We must use Caran's decision in lieu of our own because we can all trust her objectivity.

Caran - why do you not trust Tom? I am ambivalent towards him and would welcome your analysis.

Also, whom do you suspect the most? You should take charge today because we probably only have you for a day. I'm happy to change my vote to Fea or durelin and probably will be to change it to Tom given a little reasoning.

[Findëasëa]

Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.

I did what I honestly thought was right. I was planning on voting for Mith, after working on analysis of her she seemed most suspicious. When I was able to get to the village, I saw that Caran had 5 votes and SPM had 4. I considered voting for SPM, because I was convinced of Caran’s innocence, and his blatant attack on her seemed out of place. I did not vote for him in the end because I was not convinced of his guilt on this alone. I did not feel comfortable voting for either one of these players. It would have been easy to echo the arguments of other players and place a vote for SPM, but instead I made an argument, which I still feel is a valid one, and voted for the person I found most suspicious. I do not think my vote was a throwaway, and I would make the same choice again.

[Caranlondien]

Tom
Day One
#43: Says no one looks very suspicious yet, casts vote for Boro because of overt emphasis on his innocence.

Day Two
#124: Thinks Form's death may indicate the wolves are comfortable with their position in the village hierarchy. Says Caran needs looking at but doubts the wolves would be so obvious as to kill someone who voted for one of them.

#146: Says he's being swayed by the village's suspicion of Caran. Also suspects morm.

#149: Analyzes SpM, makes some points against him but in the end decides he's probably innocent.

#151: Says looking over SpM's posts, it hit him how little morm has been talking. Theorizes about morm changing his style because of his recent wolvish ancestor's success. Wants to watch him.

#168: Says he has abandoned his big-players conspiracy, thinks SpM is innocent and hasn't had time to look at others. Has to leave soon and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.

#174: Votes morm.

My thoughts: His shift to morm does look a little odd after saying he'd probably be voting for Caran or Spawn. He seems to explain it by saying that he didn't know morm wouldn't be returning for the Day. That doesn't really make sense to me, as I didn't want to vote for morm that Day for exactly the same reason - he wouldn't be back to explain himself.

This is little to go on, but it makes me nervous.

[mormegil]

The first is his constant willingness to lynch me with no reasoning whatsoever. It could, admittedly, have been some sort of ploy, but after three days it's got tiresome.

Care to explain my 'willingness' to lynch you for three days now? I've voted for you once and we are on our third day and on the second I mainly expressed my suspicion of Caran and voted accordingly.

As so many seem to not read what I write I will say it again, when I quoted you telling me that Caran was the hunter I didn't see it all I saw was your part about not being able to get Morm today. As I know I'm innocent, statements like that make me suspect you.

Oh by the way, you MUST be innocent for saving Caran yesterday and...oh wait it wasn't you but it was Cailin, who I feel is innocent after hearing from her today, but somehow you ride the coat tails of it and try and have us all convinced that you are innocent. I don't think an ordo or gifted would push forward their own innocence that much.

Celuien, thank you for the summary but you came to an incorrect conclusion about TGWBS. He hasn't posted much that overly reasonable. He's been fairly single minded in his attack of me and refuses to draw up detailed conclusions of others

171: Doesn’t want to jump on minor details to make a case about wolvery because it leads to innocents dying.

This is one example but in reading the entire thread I get the impression that he's all of bunch of pokecrap mingled with a reluctance to stick out his neck on all but the easy target.

Edit: I wasn't finished and somehow this posted so I will double post.

[Celuien]

I'll await the rest of the post. Honestly, I'm wavering between voting for you on the basis of what's been posted or Durelin for her defensiveness and the other aspects of my earlier analysis, but I'd be interested in what you have to say about Guy.

[Findëasëa]

Caran, I have to say that I do not share your suspicions of Tom. I think you may have misread the post in which he explains his vote for Morm. It seems to me that his justification for voting was that he thought that the ‘weariness argument’ was a way for him to get away with being a quiet wolf.

Tom- I am still suspicious that this 'weariness' is an excuse for being a quiet wolf, and I will be voting appropriately.

edit- fixed a typo

[mormegil]

In post 302 he wants to give control to Caran which has me extremely worried; not because I don't trust Caran but rather I don't trust TGWBS. He is riding on the coat tails again here and I agree that Caran's insights can be viewed as genuine but can we view them as accurate? Certainly not. She knows no more than any other innocent, save the seer and is bound to the same mistakes that we all make as innocents. She's a good source of trust but she's by no means infallible.

Just an observation: I'm seeing one of those typical skirmishes that we see between two players with markedly different styles: Morm & Lommy are really going after each other. What that usually means, based on my lorebooks, is that both are likely innocent and are strongly reacting to each other.

Sadly you may be correct and while I still remain leary of her I'm backing off a bit currently.

Another thing that I find odd is that so many of us are putting are suspects in little subcategories and only giving reasons on one or two yet TGWBS harps on me because he didn't like the day 1 reasoning I gave him. It's frustrating because the day ends at 4 PM my time and I'm at work until at least 4:30 but usually later. It's difficult because most of the goings on happen while I'm at work so it's tough to maintain employment and read for hours a day at work. I know that you students think your life is so busy but just wait. And those of you under 18, TGWBS, just wait a couple years and maybe then you'll have some sympathy for adults.

[Caranlondien]

morm, I completely agree with you. I was just about to post that I don't want to "take charge" because it'll give the wolves an easy hiding place (e.g., "But Caran told me to vote for <insert name of an innocent here>). TGWBS has struck me as trying to ingratiate himself with me (though if you've honestly got that much faith in my wolf-spotting abilities, I'm flattered, but disagree) So TGWBS is on my suspicions list now. The only thing that makes me hesitate is that he actually argued that he and Cailin were exonerated by their saving me yesterDay. Would a wolf be so obvious?

Fin, I see what you mean about Tom. I guess I did misread there...

[mormegil]

Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.


You're incoherent

Cough up some reasons, monkey-man.

Does you petulance have no bounds cartoon boy?

[mormegil]

Regarding Mith, I feel I know her very well and can read her and know how she would react as a wolf. She is not. Sadly I am not the seer but the wolves can kill me to find out.

[the guy who be short]

All quotes from morm unless states otherwise.

Care to explain my 'willingness' to lynch you for three days now? I've voted for you once and we are on our third day and on the second I mainly expressed my suspicion of Caran and voted accordingly.On days two and three you have kept me in your "very suspicious" category with no reasoning whatsoever.

when I quoted you telling me that Caran was the hunter I didn't see it all I saw was your part about not being able to get Morm today. As I know I'm innocent, statements like that make me suspect you.And... can you point to any other statements like that? Or do my comments all have to be misinterpreted and misread before they can cast suspicion on me? :p

Oh by the way, you MUST be innocent for saving Caran yesterday and...oh wait it wasn't you but it was Cailin, who I feel is innocent after hearing from her today, but somehow you ride the coat tails of it and try and have us all convinced that you are innocent. I don't think an ordo or gifted would push forward their own innocence that much.I made one post on my own innocence. I think it's rather logical if you think it out.

TGWBS. He hasn't posted much that overly reasonable. He's been fairly single minded in his attack of me and refuses to draw up detailed conclusions of othersThis from the man who refused to give any reasoning until his existence came under threat today... I'll leave others to judge my input.


In post 302 he wants to give control to Caran which has me extremely worried; not because I don't trust Caran but rather I don't trust TGWBS. He is riding on the coat tails again here and I agree that Caran's insights can be viewed as genuine but can we view them as accurate? Certainly not.
I was just about to post that I don't want to "take charge" because it'll give the wolves an easy hiding place (e.g., "But Caran told me to vote for <insert name of an innocent here>). TGWBS has struck me as trying to ingratiate himself with me (though if you've honestly got that much faith in my wolf-spotting abilities, I'm flattered, but disagree) So TGWBS is on my suspicions list now.I'm happy to trust Caran because 3/4 of her suspects seem suspicious to me. That seems accurate enough for me. Her objective outlook should be one we all take complete advantage of while she's here. Even if it did serve as a hiding place for wolves, it would only be for the one day she's here.

So yes, I have faith in your wolfspotting abilities. I think the best course of action is for Caran to make a shortlist of three or four people and everybody to vote for one of them. This preserves some autonomy whilst narrowing the autonomy of the wolves.

[Caranlondien]

morm is beginning to feel rather more innocent to me. Of course if TGWBS is a wolf, this could be a clever sacrifice that morm can ride 'til the end. But for now, I'm starting to feel more inclined to trust him.

[Caranlondien]

And now I feel more inclined to trust TGWBS...

See, this is why you shouldn't put all your faith in me :rolleyes:

[Caranlondien]

So yes, I have faith in your wolfspotting abilities. I think the best course of action is for Caran to make a shortlist of three or four people and everybody to vote for one of them. This preserves some autonomy whilst narrowing the autonomy of the wolves.
Hmm... well when a certain wizard did that in another village, it was because he actually had some knowledge of other innocents, and wanted to keep the village from lynching them. I know nothing. I shan't make a shortlist that everybody must vote from.

What I will do is provide you with a list of suspects from an objective opinion. Vote as you wish, ignoring my list if you so choose. I don't think that merely voting for someone not on my list should be taken as a wolvish-act; rather, I think that, as usual, reasoning and previous suspicions should be taken into account. Take this as objective advice, not as a List of Doom (I believe Gurthang has a copyright on that term :D )

morm
TGWBS
Feanor
Durelin

[Findëasëa]

I'm happy to trust Caran because 3/4 of her suspects seem suspicious to me. That seems accurate enough for me. Her objective outlook should be one we all take complete advantage of while she's here. Even if it did serve as a hiding place for wolves, it would only be for the one day she's here.

So yes, I have faith in your wolfspotting abilities. I think the best course of action is for Caran to make a shortlist of three or four people and everybody to vote for one of them. This preserves some autonomy whilst narrowing the autonomy of the wolves.

I think this is a bad idea. Caran has already posted lists of who she finds suspicious and why. How are we to be assured that this is not a ploy from the wolves to keep themselves out of trouble for another day? I do feel that Caran is intelligent, but I am looking for completely different qualities in people than she is. I have voiced my belief of the moderate wolf being a likely one. Two of the people in her bottom four are there because Caran finds then ‘unreadable.’ I think that the line between personality and the actions of a bold wolf is not well defined here. The actions they have been called suspicious for so far seem to be mostly related to their personalities and posting styles. I want to wait for a stronger justification than the fact that their personalities may hide a bold wolf. Her arguments against Tom were flawed, and I find him likely innocent. As far as Morm goes, I am a bit suspicious, but not enough at this point to warrant a vote.

We should listen to Caran, but I don't think that blind following is wise.

X- posted with Caran, her suggestion idea seems much more reasonable than TGWBS's plan

[Caranlondien]

I have voiced my belief of the moderate wolf being a likely one.
Isn't that more of a personality-based criterion than my "unreadable"-based suspicions? I think that a wolf want to be unreadable. That's why I find unreadable people suspicious. I've never played with Durelin before, so I don't know if this is her typical behavior. Feanor I know looks suspicious even when she isn't guilty, but I think in this game particularly, her behavior has been cryptic at best. As for Tom, I agreed with your point and removed him from my suspicion list for now.

[Caranlondien]

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)

Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Tom, Caran, Fin, Mith, morm, Durelin

[Findëasëa]

Isn't that more of a personality-based criterion than my "unreadable"-based suspicions? I think that a wolf want to be unreadable. That's why I find unreadable people suspicious. I've never played with Durelin before, so I don't know if this is her typical behavior. Feanor I know looks suspicious even when she isn't guilty, but I think in this game particularly, her behavior has been cryptic at best.

I mean moderate in action, not personality. Moderate action would varies based on personality (i.e. a moderate action for Durelin might be very different then a moderate action for you). I agree that their actions appear cryptic, I just think that what I see as strangeness regarding their actions may just be a personality quirk. As you said, Fea looks suspicious even when she is not guilty, I do not want to make the mistake of helping get her lynched if I have no further justification then that she seems cryptic.

[mormegil]

++TGWBS

He seems the most suspicious to me. I may have been a bit hard earlier on but he and I have a history of respectful disagreement occasionally laced with petty insults :).

Another reason to vote for him in a past instance with him when I was the cobbler and he was wolf he was doing well but continued one day to long in his single minded attack on me which ended up getting him lynched. This is reminscent of this.

[Mithalwen]

All right, Mith.

Whom do you suspect now?

Wish I knew ..I have to reread and I left my notes at home but since things have changes so much that may not be a bad thing.

Easier to say that I don't suspect you or Nogrod at this point .... you both seem yourselves. But familiarity is a dangerous thing. Morm reads me perfectly again but that doesn't mean he isn't guilty.

I have no reason to doubt Caran's claim.

Going to read through.

[Nogrod]

Schools out for Summer!

And so much has been said again...

I have scrolled the thread for toDay and will have to think about a host of ideas brought forwards here.

Just one thing to begin with, one that kind of jumps out from the recent discussion.

tgwbs confuses me more all the time, although he seems to be ever more helpful. I disagree with his idea of Caran giving us a list outsdide of which we should not vote. She probably is innocent, but she makes mistakes and has blind spots, as we all do. And surely: if we give all the decisions on who to vote for Caran, the wolves would be very fast starting to use that fact to their advantage (making precision attacks, rousing specific suspicions to influence Caran and her list).

His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm & Mith

[the guy who be short]

Back again, probably for the last time tonight.

I'm on Caran's list, actually, and I still support it. You can argue as much as you like against the idea, but when it comes down to it, over a fifth of us are now wolves. Only Caran's judgement can be trusted by everybody. People who say their analysis disagrees with Caran - the point isn't that everybody should be completely in accord with her. The point is that you could be a wolf whereas we know Caran isn't. Your analysis which disagrees with her - and even mine - could be lupine analyses. Caran's can not.

I don't think I'm overstressing her usefulness here. We have her for one day, but people seem willing to throw her aside. As for myself, I shall stick to my vote as morm is on Caran's list. In any case, she's provided a fairly varied list, so there should be somebody to please everybody in it. I'd encourage you all to listen to her, but it is beyond my power to enforce my will.



In conclusion:

I wanna (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF-hIXGX1oM) be the very best like no-one ever was,
*Tum tum tum*
To catch wolves is my real test, to lynch them is my cause,
I will travel across the vill'ge, searching far and wide
*Tum tum tum*
Each wolf to sniff out the demon that's inside

Werewolves! Gotta catch'em all!

It's you and me,
I know it's our destiny!

Werewolves! They're our worst enemy
In a village we must defend.

Werewolves! Gotta catch'em all!
A heart so true,
Our courage will pull us through!
You teach me and I'll teach you.

We-ere-wolves! Gotta catch'em all! Gotta catch'em all! Werewolves!


Sorry. I needed to get that out of my system. :D

[Cailín]

Fin & Tom are looking more suspicious by the minute.

I still trust TGWBS. Mormegil seems innocent also. I believe Mith since her posts this morning. I also have no reason to suspect Nogrod at the moment. Caranlondien is our Hunter.

Coming to the maybes. Lhuna seems quiet loveable at the moment. I have no reason to suspect her. Since this morning, my faith in Elempi has grown also, largely because the opinion of others.

Feanor of the Peredhil
Celuien
Thinlómien
Tom
Findëasëa
Durelin

Though I cannot be a 100% sure, I'm pretty certain half of these people are wolvish. I'm not quite sure about Caranlondien's list, but as my only actually known innocent I trust her above all others. But -and oh, am I selfish- I trust my own judgement even more.

[Mithalwen]

Just a random thought here re the changeling. Now everyone knows who the hunter is... well the wolves surely won't go after Caran but the changeling if they wish can choose her and presumably kill if attacked by wolves... right? That is a good thought means that Caran's value hasn't been entirely lost by the revelation...

[Caranlondien]

I mean moderate in action, not personality.
Gotcha ;) Between our two styles of searching for wolves, I hope we'll manage to catch 'em all (sounds like a Pokemon commercial).

Just a random thought here re the changeling. Now everyone knows who the hunter is... well the wolves surely won't go after Caran but the changeling if they wish can choose her and presumably kill if attacked by wolves... right? That is a good thought means that Caran's value hasn't been entirely lost by the revelation...
I don't think that's how the Changeling works; I think it's just that if they choose me, they get to choose who I hunt for the Night. They don't gain any lasting power; by the next Day, they are back to normal and can't hunt.

Now, this is still good, as it makes it harder for the wolves to guess who'll be dying with me.

[Mithalwen]

Oh :( ... well nevermind back to the drawing board......

[Nogrod]

I haven't done this kind of a list yet in this game, so here it comes.

Probably innocent:
Cailín - Reasonable and intelligent, makes insightful points. (And if she is a wolf, I admit she has totally gotten myself under her spell)

Can’t see anything right now, but seem normal (innocents) enough:
Celuien
Mith (?)

Might be both ways:
Lommy – I wouldn’t discredit all Morm’s points on her, but can‘t see her as a wolf either, at least yet (haven’t made a closer look on her though)
Tom – Too quiet and careful, but also insightful

Very hard to say, probably my next check is here:
Fin
Durelin

A bit confused / weary:
Morm – if all is RL-based: my sympathies, but he surely could pull the trick too
Lhuna – Very low profile, too low – I sometimes realize I have forgotten Lhuna’s in the game at all (timezones, I know, but)

No idea, whatsoever for now:
Fea

Suspicious:
tgwbs – see my earlier post for some first thoughts about this

[tom bombariffic]

First off, an apology for being so late. The internet in my house was down this morning, and I've not had a chance to catch up until now.

I'm going to make some general observations of what I've read through this evening, and then I'll go back and make a voting decision after checking up on some things and re-reading. My vote will have to be now, because I'm going out later.

The thing that has struck me the most today is that accusations seem to be becoming more personal. In no day so far have there been so many posts from villagers demanding explanations for a vote on them, or complaints at persistent campaigning against them. The frustration at not having caught any wolves yet appears to be boiling over, and I'd just like to remind everyone to try to be calm and analytical. Allowing yourself to be offended is likely to taint your vote with personal grievences, and make it a less balanced decision. I for one am also wary of people who over-react to votes against them; as the tension builds, the individual wolves are likely to become more flustered.

a quick note on mormegil - I am pleased to see that he seems to be increasing his participation in the game. I will go back and look over what he has said today, because this could obviously be a response to accusations levelled against him yesterday by myself and others, namely that he is staying out to fly under the radar. But if the werewolf-weariness is genuine and he is innocent, it's obviously good to see him participating more. As I said, I'll look back and make up my mind. (I also notice the irony of me accusing him of under-participation, and then being absent all morning. My Internet connection obviously has a cruel sense of humour.)

Two players who have drawn a lot of attention to themselves today are TGWBS and Lommy. Whilst having a public argument would be a very bold tactic for two wolves, I see no reason why this could not be an argument between a wolf and the seer. I suggest we look very carefully at their language to see if anyone seems to have a seer's assurance. Come to think of it, this could also apply to any of the personal feuds I mentioned above...I'll try to look at this too.

I agree that caran must be the hunter, as various others have theorised above. On the subject of her making a 'list of doom', this really depends on how much you trust her judgement. If she is perceptive a list will increase the chances of lynching a wolf; if she is mistaken, it will decrease the chances. Giving the people the option of following her suspicions, as she has done, seems to be a useful middle ground as it guides people without confining them. That's all I really have to say on that.

And, finally, myself. Having ranted above about suspecting people who defend themselves, I'll be brief! Just thought I should thank those who pointed out Caran's mistake in my absence. Doesn't mean I don't have my eye on you though...

I'll be back soon with a vote and some specific reasoning (hopefully).

bombariffic

[tom bombariffic]

Having looked back, I am more sure of my point about people agitatedly defending themselves being suspicious.

Durelin's first post today started by saying "I don't feel a real need to overly defend myself", but then went on to do exactly that, as though to try to do so without people noticing. There had been some suspicion voiced by Celuien earlier, but the last two posters (morm and Caran) made no mention of it in their lists, so this reaction seems somewhat overstated.

Similarly, further on in the post, this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caran
un-thought-out lynching of SpM

I disagree on the 'un-thought-out' bit, at least on my part. I assure you, my vote for him was not purely out of a rush to save you. Sorry, but it wasn't. (considering you hadn't revealed yourself yet when I voted).

is highly suspicious. Unless I am much mistaken, Caran's post did not accuse Durelin, and yet Durelin felt the need to defend herself again. A possible guilty conscience.

Her reasons for suspecting celuien seem reasonable, but even here, she feels the need to say:

I really want to look at Celuien further (and no, not because she's suspicious of me...it's not like she's the only one, anyway)

This could be excuseable as just a precaution; I could understand someone quickly justifying themself in this situation, but in the context of the very defensive post, I believe it is still relevant and her continued excusing of herself is worth noting.

Various suspicions have been voiced over Durelin's vote for SpM. As she so earnestly notes above, she voted for SpM before Caran came out of the hunting closet, but her reasoning was flip-floppy at best. There have been various posts, for example TGWBS in post 302 or Celuien in post 260. I think the quote posted by celuien in that post shows what I am talking about - I have nothing to add on this point that has not been said, other than that I agree.

Durelin is certainly being very shifty. I intend to have a look at morm and at the TGWBS/lommy posts, time permitting. At the moment, morm and the very defensive durelin (I'll be looking out for other examples of this defensiveness too) are my priority.

bombariffic

[Caranlondien]

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)

Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Tom, Caran, Fin, Mith, Durelin

Unfortunately, I have to vote soon. Very unlikely I'll be back before the Day ends. So I have to figure out my vote...

[tom bombariffic]

I've just been analysing morm and lommy, and I should point out immediately that i've made a mistake in the above two posts - I referred to an argument between TGWBS and Lommy wheras in fact I meant that each had had a personal argument with Mormegil. In my breaking down of my thoughts in my first post, I obviously crossed some wires by mistake when I was writing.

I understand that this isn't a valid reason for editing a post, so I thought I would explain it here, before I cause any confusion. My apologies, during the writing of my first post I got muddled.

vote to come.

bombariffic

[Mithalwen]

I am still doing my revision but will have to decide soon. V hard since so much discussion concerns dead innocents. Durelin is topping my main suspect list but I need to get to the end before I decide.

[Caranlondien]

++mormegil

Sorry if you're innocent (and for once no one can accuse me because I said sorry!)

[tom bombariffic]

Mormegil has shown increased participation today, but I remain unconvinced of his innocence.

One thing I have mentioned today is people's defensiveness and personal arguments, and morm has added to my suspicions about his style by holding defensive back-and-forths with TGWBS and Lommy, in which I found his reasoning dubious.

He begins in post 275 by accusing Thinlomien of voting for him without reason (saying that she did the same with SpM). However, I do not agree with his argument. Playing style is a valid reason to have voted for him, because it was very out of character for him. He also complains that she said she may come back and change her vote, but that when she came back, she didn't. She explained herself at the time, saying that she had 2 suspects, but morm was a less useful player due to his style, and that she was sticking to her vote (as she reminds him in her retort on p.288). to me, this is entirely justified.

I don't necessarily agree with personal retorts (like lommy's post 288), and I remain suspicious of lommy because she has frequently seemed over-zealous in her defence of herself this game, but I have to say I felt the same way as her about morm. Lommy is far too defensive, (see post 297...a joke perhaps, but one that reveals her nerves), but I think morm seemed to have a guilty conscience too. The fact that I dieagreed with morm's arguments, in addition to my initial mistrust of his style (and his fast change), means that my list of suspects looks like this:

1.morm
2.durelin
3.lommy
4.TGWBS

I haven't really had time to investigate TGWBS today, I'm afraid. I'm also aware that it is unlikely that morm and lommy are both wolves, but I think one of them almost certainly is.

Despite my boundless respect for morm's coining of the term "pokecrap", he remains the most suspicious player to me, for the reasons given above.

Therefore, I vote for ++MORM

bombariffic

{Crossed with caran}

[Thinlómien]

My suspicions of morm have somewhat lessened, beacuse he has been quite reasonable while I've been away. I would still like him to answer my questions. This, however, doesn't mean that he's not at the top of my suspcions list; on the contrary, he is.

Exellent points concerning TGWBS have been made. He's eagerness to support Cara and his urging of making a list of doom are somewhat... strange. I still hesitate to truly suspect him, since he's known for his wild theories which make him be lynched as an innocent.

I don't support the idea of Cara making a list of doom (she, as she herself has said, doesn't know anything more than any of us, and less than seer, changeling and wolves), though I personally think her list is a good one.

I will vote morm if no dramatic changes occur or unless he explains himself and answers my questions reasonably.

I'm inclined to think bombariffic innocent because of his thoughtful posts toDay.

P.S. Nogrod feels that it's important that I announce that we're using the same computer and that might affect our gameplay.

[Caranlondien]

Tom, technically you're supposed to put your vote in a separate line ;) Just want to make sure it gets counted.

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Caran => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 2, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Tom => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)

Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Fin, Mith, Durelin

Now... I'm leaving and probably won't be back. I expect I'll die toNight, unless our Ranger has been particularly cunning :D Apologies in advance if I kill an innocent... which I'm afraid is statistically probable, but I hope to beat the odds. So, good luck, villagers. I'll be rooting for you!

[mormegil]

*There's a noticable twitch in Mormegil's left eye and a jerking of the head, almost as if he's going insane*

I will vote morm if no dramatic changes occur or unless he explains himself and answers my questions reasonably.

What questions would that be dear? I wish I were the cobbler because in a way I want the wolves to win but hear me that TGWBS is a wolf and I think Tom is too.

The list is a bad idea and Caran is smart not to request us to adhere to it. In the last game Gurthang was in a better position to make a list but I, being a wolf in the game, loved it because I exploited it with great effectiveness and it could easily be done today. I see both Tom and TGWBS doing this.

Thinlo drop your preconceived notions of me this game and be realistic. It's not coincidnetal that as soon as the weekend arrived I became more active.

[Mithalwen]

Argh nine pages endless lists....what is genuine what is smokescreen?

All this analysing is a good way of seeming to contribute without revealing much. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf among the listers...

Lommy and Morm stop squabbling... although it does more incline me to think you both might be innocent. I really don't see why morm is so suspicious. I have observed that when he looks most suspicious he tends to be innocent...

Fea I am getting less supicious of but she has been quiet so it is a hard call. Be inclined to wait and see...

Fin and Tom seem reasonable maybe too much...... still suspicious... but not priority .

Most others I can't decide but since there is a bandwagon against morm who isn't someoneI yet suspect and the other main possible target is Durelin whom I have done since the beginning...

++ Durelin

[Nogrod]

= Lommy
Nogrod feels that it's important that I announce that we're using the same computer and that might affect our gameplay.
Yes I do. I remember the ending of the Day2... So we two can't be online at the same time, and to pass the turn to the other one we will have to log out - log in every time.

Morm seems to be the favourite again...

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Caran => Morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 2, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
tom => Morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Mith => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 2, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Fin, Durelin

I'm not totally happy with the way things are going, but admit, that tom had points worthy of consideration. I can probably make one thoughtful (I hope it is one) analysis toDay - Lommy's little sister is quite jealous of the time we two spend here... :rolleyes: We both will return before the Day ends.

But as the situation has changed a bit from my last visit, I will have to reconsider, where to watch now.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm & Mith, corrected the tally & will probably see Durelin now...

[Mithalwen]

sorry I didn't phrase that well. Better to say that I suspect Durelin most of the targets. I don't suspect morm. What am I missing? I glaze over in the analysis and I doubt he would fight so much with Lommy if he were a wolf....

[Cailín]

What questions would that be dear? I wish I were the cobbler because in a way I want the wolves to win but hear me that TGWBS is a wolf and I think Tom is too.

Why?

Why should the wolves win?

And yes, this is a personal question. :p

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I am only going to get quieter. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to be silent to this extreme. Quiet yes, practically non-existant, no.

Villagers, heck, even wolves: I beg of you, please do me one favor:

If you are not certain or reasonably so that you are going to lynch a wolf today, please, PLEASE vote for me to avoid needless casualties.

--LMP

++FotP

[Findëasëa]

The actions of TGWBS today have struck me as quite odd. First, he asserts that he ought be absolved from guilt, along with Cailin for saving Caran yesterday. I think that others have addressed this issue strongly already, and I agree that this contention is not necessarily true. In his first post he begins asserting the importance that Caran has for the village that day. He continues later in the day to be a strong advocate of Caran’s power and usefulness, much stronger then she is herself. His continuous association with her seems to me to be an attempt to appear innocent and helpful. It ended up drawing negative attention to him, but I think that he probably assumed that people would have different reactions to his helpfulness, and never thought it would draw any attention For these reasons I vote:
++TGWBS

[Cailín]

Fea - do be reasonable. If you are an ordinary villager wanting out, PM Kath and the all powerful moddess goddess will make it happen. There is no wolf dying during the night, we need all lynch opportunities we can get in order to catch one. There is no way I am going to waste a valuable lynch opportunity just because you're practically non-existant. If you are an ordo and have the best interest of this village at heart and still seriously want out, this is not the way.

I'm sorry, dear, but I'm quite serious about this.

[Nogrod]

I just read this...
The list is a bad idea and Caran is smart not to request us to adhere to it. In the last game Gurthang was in a better position to make a list but I, being a wolf in the game, loved it because I exploited it with great effectiveness and it could easily be done today. I see both Tom and TGWBS doing this.
You are speaking plain sense here Morm - just what I said in my earlier post (my opinions = sense? Well to me at last :D). I'm feeling all the less happy to see Morm go, but surely we would need another believable candidate. I just don't like to vote without a reason.

In this situation, I'll probably try to see Durelin...

EDIT: X-posted from #342 onwards...

[Mithalwen]

This may be madness but what the heck it is what you expect .. but I am going to stick my neck out for morm.

as for Fea ..I thought you might be the seer - all your comments about serving the village by watching. But the seer wouldn't commit suicide.

Fea you ring true becasue I started today expecting to be lynched and my only comfort was that at least a gifted won't die. I had thought of pulling out because of my RL issues but I knew that wouldn't help the village unless they got a wolf instead..and on current form.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm sorry, dear, but I'm quite serious about this.
Cailin, my dear, I am more serious than you know. Just because you don't understand the incentive behind my last post, there are hopefully others here that, unless I give them too much credit, will, and will take advantage of what I'm trying to do.

Oh my... I wish I was a wolf. This could have been the greatest bluff of all time.

[Mithalwen]

OK who is the best save morm candidate.. should I change to TGWBS who is in my unsure category .. or shall I hold to Durelin.. aieeeeeeeee

[Mithalwen]

Fea ? Now I am confused.......... but I think you are innocent so do you really want me to vote for you ...?

[Celuien]

It's not coincidnetal that as soon as the weekend arrived I became more active.
I sympathize with that statement.

Since my last post, I've read Morm's statements, and he seems normal to me.

And actually, the bickering with Morm speaks to an innocent TGWBS, I think. It wouldn't be the first time two innocent villagers got into a squabble. :rolleyes:

Fea, sorry dear, but I think you're innocent, and I can't vote for you even if you request it.

Durelin still isn't sitting right with me, so, for lack of a better suspect:

++DURELIN

[Thinlómien]

Morm, these at least:
Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please.


Thinlo drop your preconceived notions of me this game and be realistic. It's not coincidnetal that as soon as the weekend arrived I became more active.
I have said you've made a lot more sense lately and I can say it again. I see you read my posts since you didn't continue your misguided attack on me (though you're still suspecting me, and that's fair enough, this is ww after all) and I liked that too. I may be willing to co-operate with you toDay for the sake of you being quite unsuspicious and reasonable for a while now. I won't however drop you from my suspect list.

So, I might vote morm, or TGWBS who I feel growing suspicion of, though I again feel I might be swayed by the public opinion.

edit: zed with Mith's later post and Celuien

[Cailín]

Cailin, my dear, I am more serious than you know. Just because you don't understand the incentive behind my last post, there are hopefully others here that, unless I give them too much credit, will, and will take advantage of what I'm trying to do.

I suppose I do lack the vision. If anyone can explain, please do so.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm not saying that you should all just bandwagon me and be done with it!

That would be really freaking stupid. I suspect I'm giving you all too much benefit of the doubt. Eventually you will understand, though at this rate, only after it's too late.

Mith, only vote for me if you don't have any idea of who you think is a wolf. If you know a wolf, kill it!

Now I'll speak slowly, so to be sure you understand:

I know I'm disappearing due to RL therefore if it comes down to lynching somebody that's probably not even guilty, kill me instead. Since RL stole my time in a fashion most foul, I can't post anything of value and I can't even post fequent invaluable stuff. I'll be killed for lack of participation. So, since I'm already going to DIE, if you can use that fact to keep your population numbers in check, DO IT.

[mormegil]

Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

It was in combination with saying that I wasn't a real suspect but then you never seemed to consider others.

I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please

I might be wrong here. I read the whole thread in 24 hours but it was segmented and I thought I remember Spawn saying things about you. I don't really have the time or desire to look back currently but if need arises I will. I think Spawn brought up some good points about many people so perhaps I assumed you too...uncertain though.

[Cailín]

Fea...

Do you know why it is beneficial for the village to organise a double lynching, even though both lynchees might be or are even very likely innocent?

[Celuien]

I know I'm disappearing due to RL therefore if it comes down to lynching somebody that's probably not even guilty, kill me instead. Since RL stole my time in a fashion most foul, I can't post anything of value and I can't even post fequent invaluable stuff. I'll be killed for lack of participation. So, since I'm already going to DIE, if you can use that fact to keep your population numbers in check, DO IT.
I understand (and understood) that strategy. But I'm fairly suspicious of Durelin, if not 100% positive that she's a wolf, and almost completely unsuspicious of you. I would rather settle that issue now if I can than vote for you and not find anything out that I wouldn't learn automatically after you leave.

I'll be quite sorry to see you go.

[the guy who be short]

No double lynchings.

Nothing more to add.

[Mithalwen]

But we can't have a double lynching... huh oh reduce the probability.. but fact remains that the wolves will kill an innocent each night unless the ranger is effective so it is better to avoid killing innocents each day :rolleyes:

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Please don't assume I haven't thought this out. A lot. I've been fighting werewolves for time out of mind. I don't make stupid decisions. I just sometimes over-estimate my colleagues.

[Cailín]

No double lynchings.

Nothing more to add.

Oh geesh, I know. Trying to make a point here. :p

edit: crossed with Fea. All right, apparently there is some master plan which I don't understand.

I will be sorry to see you go, Fea, this was never meant as a personal attack but if you call me really freaking stupid, then right back at ya. :p

[Celuien]

Probabilities. Making the ratio of wolves higher so they're easier to spot. But we can't double lynch, so no use in worrying about doing the calculations...

[Mithalwen]

Celuien ..though in my uncertain list is just such a voice of sanity that I am inclined to go with her. I will stay with Durelin. And will all those bickering stop and try and look at things clear eyed? Please - too often innocents get each other killed like that....

[mormegil]

What are the voting totals? Anybody have an updated list?

[Mithalwen]

I think you and Durelin are equal on 3

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay, my final point:

Somebody - please, Eru, somebody - is going to figure me out, preferably before it's too late. They will use what I've given them and they will use it in a helpful way.

Think about what I've done. Why would I offer myself as a sacrifice? Why wouldn't I concentrate on self-preservation instead to ensure a village victory?

What, I ask you, would make me do something as utterly 'unhelpful' as try to get myself, an innocent, lynched? And who is trying to stop me?

[mormegil]

Durelin 3
Morm 3
Fin 1
TGWBS 2
Fea 1

Fea sadly I can't make this work myself.

[Celuien]

Yes, Durelin and you are tied. Here's the complete list:

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Caran => Morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 2, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
tom => Morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Mith => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 2, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Fea => (--lmp) Fea (Fea 1, Durelin 2, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Findëasëa => TGWBS (Fea 1, Durelin 2, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 2)
Celuien => Durelin (Fea 1, Durelin 3, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)

[Mithalwen]

OK Fea here goes

-- Durelin

++ FOTP

[Mithalwen]

But I will change back to save Morm sorry

[Mithalwen]

If necessary

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Morm... pleeeeease? I have so much faith in you... Mithalwen... TGWBS... LMP...

One of you? You all know me. I know you can do it. Just... *silently pleads*

[Mithalwen]

Up to Morm ...

[Mithalwen]

But we need one more since otherwise morm was first to 3

[Celuien]

Okay, my final point:

Somebody - please, Eru, somebody - is going to figure me out, preferably before it's too late. They will use what I've given them and they will use it in a helpful way.

Think about what I've done. Why would I offer myself as a sacrifice? Why wouldn't I concentrate on self-preservation instead to ensure a village victory?

What, I ask you, would make me do something as utterly 'unhelpful' as try to get myself, an innocent, lynched? And who is trying to stop me?
I can think of a reason. Hmm. I wonder.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I give up. I tried. No worries. Pretend I wasn't here.

[the guy who be short]

--MORM

++FEA

[Mithalwen]

QUICK I only have 5 minute to change back if this isn't happening I don't want Morm to die

[mormegil]

--tgwbs

++fea

[Mithalwen]

OK Morm is safe now?

[Celuien]

Okay. I'm hesitant about doing this, but if you insist:

-- DURELIN
++ FEANOR

I hope this works out.

[Cailín]

On the condition that you explain it to me when it's all over... I'm never going to sleep again.

++FEA

[mormegil]

--Fea

++Durelin

Too many.

[Celuien]

Did a bunch of cross posting in the vote changes back there. I'm pretty sure Morm is safe now. 5 to 3?

[Mithalwen]

Do I need to change?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Celuien, I lean toward thinking you figured it out. Use that knowledge. Please.

[Celuien]

Wait, let me recount again. More crossposts. :rolleyes:

No, I think there are still five votes for Fea and three for Mormegil right now.

[the guy who be short]

By the way... I'm quite convinced that morm is innocent now. These spates between us are something of a tradition. Though I won't change my vote, I think I'll have a look at Fin and durelin just to consolidate my thoughts on them, plus perhaps an analysis of Lhuny.

Gotta catch'em all! Can't forget to analyse Fea. May as well get started now; will save work tomorrow.

[Celuien]

Celuien, I lean toward thinking you figured it out. Use that knowledge. Please.
I only hope I did figure it out. My thoughts are changing so much that I'm not sure of anything.

[Nogrod]

Oh my!

What are you doing people!?!

Why couldn't you just hold your mouths? This is maddness...

Well. One hour to solve this knot. Please everyone, calm down...

[Mithalwen]

I don't know what is happening but can I leave my vote as it is?

[Celuien]

I think you can let the vote stand, Mith. Fea is in the lead.

[mormegil]

Fea is 5
Durelin is 2
Morm is 2

[Mithalwen]

Oh my!

What are you doing people!?!

Why couldn't you just hold your mouths? This is maddness...

Well. One hour to solve this knot. Please everyone, calm down...


Fea is " but mad north-north-west; when the wind is southerly, ... [she knows]a hawk from a handsaw"

Fea or Celuien ..is it ok for me to go home now?

[the guy who be short]

Suicidal wolf?
Fea

Potential Wolf:
Fin

Known innocent:
Caran

Likely innocent:
LMP
Cailin
Morm
Mith

Undecided:
Lhuna
Celuien
Lommy
Nogrod
Tom
Durelin

[Mithalwen]

Oh good...funnily enough I feel the need to lie down in a darkened room...... well hope everything will be clear in the morning. This ain't dull is it?

[mormegil]

Fea do you ever watch Star Trek Deep Space Nine?

[Nogrod]

Mith. Please don't, yet...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mith, you're good.

Celuien: when tomorrow comes, do me a favor if my plan suddenly becomes clear.

I'm trying to keep deaths from being wasted. Wink... Wink... Deaths, plural.

Analyze the bejeezus out of everybody that took part in this little exchange. And rip apart anybody that needs it. 'K?

[Mithalwen]

Why? either Fea is a wolf and that is good for us or we lose someone who can't really participate and will cause more confusion ....... Fea can be brilliant or disastrous.... I am not sure this won't be a help one way or another. At least we have some genuine reactions and thoughts rather than people reporting others' doings under the name of insight......

We can always lynch Durelin, or whoever tomorrow..

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mormegil... I'm a NextGen fan. No DS9 for me. I suspect your potential realization relied on the show?

[Nogrod]

There are things people should not speculate aloud, for all our safety. I truly understand Fea's sarcasm when she said she had overestimated her fellows...

I'm not sure we are numerous enough to turn this tide. The situation is made worse because we have no other viable candidate at the moment (I wouldn't like to see Morm go either).

tgwbs? I suspect him, but there seems to be not enough others...

Durelin? There has been votes for her, but I didn't have time to come up with my looking at her before this maddness started (and we have to share the computer time with Lommy now - 45 minutes).

Suggestions, anyone?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Why? either Fea is a wolf and that is good for us or we lose someone who can't really participate and will cause more confusion ....... Fea can be brilliant or disastrous.... I am not sure this won't be a help one way or another. At least we have some genuine reactions and thoughts rather than people reporting others' doings under the name of insight......
Mithalwen, I love you!

[Mithalwen]

Suggestions, anyone?

Tell me why you want Fea to stay... that is my suggestion.

[mormegil]

Mormegil... I'm a NextGen fan. No DS9 for me. I suspect your potential realization relied on the show?

Sadly yes it did, Perhpaps I'm overthinking this, but more likely under thinking it :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

I am so confused!

To be honest I have no idea who Fea is, but I don't want to see her go. I see no point in it.

++Durelin

I come back after thinking about this a bit more...

[Thinlómien]

I don't want to see Fea go before I've thought about this a bit more. The only reason for my vote.

[Mithalwen]

Thinlomien. I don't know exactly what is going on but I stronlgly suspect that it is best to roll with it.

I am beginning to think those who obstruct are wolvish .....

[Mithalwen]

and does anyone else imagine that Noggin and Lommy may be fighting over the keyboard?

[Thinlómien]

I am beginning to think those who obstruct are wolvish ..... On what basis? Or are you trying to make people vote fea if they want to save their skins?

I'm so confused i maybe shouldn't be saying anything. I will be back, but don't know when. *goes and thinks it over*

[Mithalwen]

No but because we have no cobbler in this game. Either we lose a wolf or we have a great plan helpful to the village going on.

Either way only wolves can gain by stopping Fea.

[the guy who be short]

To be honest, I'm lost too. There are four roles I have believed, over the last half hour, Fea to play. I'm just going along with it because I hope the rest of you have some idea what's going on.

[Celuien]

Star Trek Deep Space Nine?
If you were overthinking, so was I. It appears that we're thinking along the same lines, though for different reasons. ;)

Hoping we've figured out what we were supposed to...

(PS Kirk was the best captain. :D )

[Mithalwen]

Oh do remember to expalin it all sometime ..... well I have to go I will leave this in the hands of the cognoscenti :)

[the guy who be short]

I'm half expecting Fea to rise again and save the village. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

This is a double-edged sword we are playing with right now. Without all this hassle it might have turned right.

But I have given it some thought now (it was good, Lommy took the keyboard and I had to go to the balcony to think about this in peace for a while). And maybe we should go for Fea anyways. You all know her role now. She will be more dangerous to us every Night she lives.

Earlier I was just thinking that we villagers should keep our wildcard alive to help us (I invested in that from the beginningt). But surely now it's somewhat different and I see the dangers more clearly with this additional information as she clearly has not picked even the first baddie to date...

++ Fea

[Cailín]

I just need some time to breathe.

I have no idea what is going on.

(un game-related) I do want to apologise to you, Fea, for offending you earlier - no matter what the turnout. I just can't stand it when people are acting all superior and secretive around me - it happens to me too often in daily life. And then I'm suddenly all explosive and and... quite dramatic.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

TGWBS, the plan is to die and save the village.

Nogrod, I'm so confused...

[Nogrod]

THIS IS LOMMY POSTING - NOT NOGROD...

And for clarity's sake, I remove the vote from here as Lommy made it again in a separate post of her own...
Okay, I've thought this over. I'm reluctant to do this, but it seems necessary, though my vote, I think, changes nothing. I hope things are as I believe.

deleted vote was here

But really... Fea? Any last words? (Of course it's yours to speculate whether it's wise or not.)

[Celuien]

Nogrod, I'm so confused...
Uh-oh. Guess I was wrong. Nogrod was implying the same thing I thought. Oh well.

Mystified again. I'll work on figuring out the plan later.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Cailin: no worries. It takes a lot more than a game to offend me. Sorry if I came off superior... I was frustrated, but that's no excuse.

Noggie, I reread your post and I still think I missed something.

[Thinlómien]

IMPORTANT

I posted as Nogrod just a minute ago. So to make it plain and clear:

-- Durelin
++ Fea

[Durelin]

the very defensive durelin

*rolls all over the floor laughing her bum off*

You guys are hilarious.

I've been gone for too long, sorry everyone. But...this is just silliness. Fea's begging to be lynched and you're granting her that? I suppose if you really have no clue.

I suppose Day ends fairly soon, right? So I think I'd best vote. If anything changes in the next 19 minutes, then I might change it, but probably not. I suppose it could be called a 'throw away vote,' anyway, but I'm voting for who I think is guilty.

++Celuien

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Oh dear. Gotcha.

You're wrong.

[Celuien]

Okay, I've thought this over. I'm reluctant to do this, but it seems necessary, though my vote, I think, changes nothing. I hope things are as I believe.

-- Durelin
++ Fea

But really... Fea? Any last words? (Of course it's yours to speculate whether it's wise or not.)
So this is your post, Lommy?

[Celuien]

Oh dear. Gotcha.

You're wrong.
I was afraid of that. Overthinking is such a pain.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Yeah, I forgot that aspect of the game. Oops. It's what I get for being so short on time.

Durelin, you think you've got me, eh?

[Celuien]

I've been gone for too long, sorry everyone. But...this is just silliness. Fea's begging to be lynched and you're granting her that? I suppose if you really have no clue.
Well, also because I was acting under an assumption of a plan to eliminate a wild card from the village. That plan is now shown to be false, but there may be other possibilities that I have to think about. Fea has said that she had a plan for us to put into action tomorrow. It eludes me right now, but I'll work on finding it.

[Durelin]

I don't think I've got anyone. I'm just voting for who I believe to be guilty.

I just see eliminating a villager a step forward for the wolves, even if it is a 'unhelpful' villager, or what have you.

EDIT: And yes, Fea could be a suicidal wolf, but that doesn't seem probable enough for me to take part in lynching her.

[Nogrod]

Well Fea, I'm just not sure what to say about this. I have been quite sure about your role in the village from the ending of the last Day onwards. Maybe I was wrong, for I can see no reason for you to bluff anymore, at this moment.

If I was right: you played it bravely and thinking for the common good. Kudos for you!

If I was wrong: well, I got taken by your melodramatics that had their basic cause outside this game?

But surely, getting one more innocent lynched in this situation is not good at all...

[Celuien]

Oh, I might as well come out with it. Can't help the wolves if I talk about my theory because it's wrong. I thought Fea was implying that she's the Changling and wanted us to lynch her not only to limit the number of villager deaths if she wound up being auto-eliminated but also to prevent her joining the wolf team and losing the game for the village that way. But I'm wrong. :rolleyes:

[Celuien]

And we'll find out in about 5 minutes anyway...

[Durelin]

Well, the Changeling would be an interesting catch, yes. Forgot about that role for a moment (*smacks self*).

[mormegil]

Oh, I might as well come out with it. Can't help the wolves if I talk about my theory because it's wrong. I thought Fea was implying that she's the Changling and wanted us to lynch her not only to limit the number of villager deaths if she wound up being auto-eliminated but also to prevent her joining the wolf team and losing the game for the village that way. But I'm wrong. :rolleyes:

This was what I've been thinking also.

[Celuien]

DS9. Odo. :cool:

[Nogrod]

This was what I've been thinking also.
What do you people think I have been shouting for? :rolleyes:

But her last posts have been weird, I have to admit. 2 minutes to the end and some more to clarity...

[Kath]

Day 3 is now over. Stop talking please.

[Kath]

Most of the village stood around in vague confusion. Fea had somehow contrived to get herself lynched, but not one of them could work out why she’d done it, and now that she was the Day’s lynch candidate, no one could work out what to do with her.

“So, um, we going for the favourite animal thing again?” Asked someone tentatively.

“Ha!” Fea snorted scornfully. “None of you will even have heard of my favourite animal, even if you could work out what it is.”

Enraged at the slight on their intelligence, the villagers threw insults right back at her. Too rude, too popular, too facetious, as well as some insults regarding a certain ‘friend’ that were not to be repeated. But the one that all the villagers agreed on, whatever their own differences, was that she was just too chatty.

The point was made over and over, Fea just laughing in agreement, angering them more. They began to stamp on the ground in time to their chant of ‘too chatty, too chatty’. They were making so much noise that they never heard the rumbling coming from a distance. Well, no one but Fea that is. Eyes suddenly wide she screamed at them to stop.

“Shut up! Look! It’s coming, please, you have to stop!”

But the villagers simply jeered at her, thinking that they were at last making an impression on this fearless girl, and carried on, getting even louder. Fea’s pleas were drowned out and ignored. She tried to run, struggling against the hands that held her in place, but there were too many and they were too strong.

Yet slowly, inexorably, the crowd began to part. A creature passed through, causing those around it to fall back in fear. It headed straight for Fea, who was now frozen in terror at the sight before her. It glowed slightly, a greenish tinge, bathing everyone around it in it’s light. Quietly someone whimpered.

“It’s a . . .a . . . c-c-c-chat skwerl!”

Turning its furry head, the swerl fixed the speaker with menacing eyes.

“Chat skwerl says . . . no more chat.”

Moving to face Fea again, the creature repeated the order. For an order it was, quiet but firm words that brooked no argument. Yet Fea being Fea, she still tried.

“But, but, I’m innocent you see, this was all a great big ploy, you don’t need to . . .”

“Chat skwerl says . . . no more chat.”

“Oh but it isn’t chat! I have this plan . . .”

The skwerl was becoming angry now. This mere girl was arguing with it? What madness was this? Louder now, it repeated the command.

“Chat skwerl says . . . no more chat!”

Poor Fea just couldn’t help herself. Cursed with the gift of the gab she continued to talk, to argue with this all-powerful rule setter. As she kept talking, the skwerl began to change colour, going from a faint green to a yellow, onto a brighter orange, and finally into an angry, pulsing red. At last scared into silence, Fea looked up at it.

“Chat skwerl says . . . no more Fea.”

With one swipe of a giant paw Fea was on the ground. The skwerl stood above her and stared down. Red eyes met dark ones and the gazes locked. The villagers were now all behind the pair, and so no one saw what passed between them during those few moments, but after the skwerl stepped away, it was clear to all that Fea had been silenced forever. In one bound the skwerl disappeared, and the villagers stepped closer to get a good look.

Used to the grim jobs, lmp bent down to close Fea’s eyes, which were still staring up at where the skwerl had been. As he got closer he gasped in shock. There in the centre of her pupils a faint red glow could still be seen. The skwerl’s warning would be with her for the rest of time, burned into her body. But whatever she had done to incur it’s wrath, the crime had not been werewolvery. Fea was innocent.


Dead:
Night 1 ~ Kath, killed by a turtle in an aerial attack ~ Innocent.
Day 1 ~ Boromir, lynched by the villagers by means of lions ~ Innocent.
Night 2 ~ Formendacil, killed by a coyote and it's trickery ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Saucepan Man, lynched by the villagers by means of a platypus catapault ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Nilpaurion Felagund, killed by an emerging alter-ego ~ Innocent.
Night 3 ~ dancing spawn of ungoliant ~ Innocent.
Day 3 ~ Feanor of the Peredhil, killed by a chat skwerl ~ Innocent.

Living:
Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Findëasëa (from now called Fin) - alpaca herder
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin - ninja



Night 4 has now begun.
Wolves, Seer, Ranger, Hunter and Changeling please PM me your choices.

[Kath]

Having been busy with voting and trying to protect her house from werewolves all day, Fin had quite forgotten about her alpaca, who had been waiting quietly outside for her to lead them to their nightly grazing spot just outside town. Berating herself for having left this until so late Fin considered leaving them where they were for the night, but knew that they would just eat all the vegetables in her neighbours gardens, and that was liable to get her lynched.

Knowing she had very little time before darkness fell, Fin quickly grabbed a stick from the wall and headed outside. Finding the lead alpaca, she gave it a small prod, and it stopped it’s chewing to fix her with a bemused gaze, before ambling off in the direction of the fields. Slowly, the rest of the herd followed, with Fin at the back.

The troop reached the field just as the last bit of light faded away, and Fin made fast work of ensuring the gates were securely fastened before heading back to the village at a good pace. She kept a sharp eye out for both the wolves and other animals, having seen what the beasts were capable of doing to people over the last few days.

However, for all her scrutiny and wariness, she never looked at the ground, and this proved to be her downfall. Slinking along beside her was a sea otter, dark in colour and keeping to the shadows. It’s keen eyes caught sight of the wolves long before Fin’s did, and it prepared itself to help them make Fin the nightly snack.

Finally, Fin saw the wolves creeping towards her from the town, and began to turn and make a run for it. As she did so, the otter leapt on her leg and sunk it’s teeth deep into her ankle, making her scream in pain and fall to the ground.

In an instant the wolves were on her back and she knew she would die. While they ripped into her, the otter carefully gnawed at the stick she had been carrying, giving it a sharp point. One of the wolves saw this and took hold of it in between giant paws. Fin was flipped over, bleeding from dozens of wounds, and saw her fate. Screaming again she tried to move away but the wolves held her tight, and she watched as the stake came shooting towards her.

It went clean through her heart and she died on the spot, a half-formed scream still on her lips. The wolves threw their heads up to howl, and then down again to feast.

The next morning, the villagers awoke to see Fin’s impaled body attached to her house. A few wondered whether the stake through the heart meant anything, but as it didn’t seem to signify anything to do with any of their Gifted’s they put it down as just being another example of the wolves’ sick sense of humour, and left lmp to his dirty work.


Dead:
Night 1 ~ Kath, killed by a turtle in an aerial attack ~ Innocent.
Day 1 ~ Boromir, lynched by the villagers by means of lions ~ Innocent.
Night 2 ~ Formendacil, killed by a coyote and it's trickery ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Saucepan Man, lynched by the villagers by means of a platypus catapault ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Nilpaurion Felagund, killed by an emerging alter-ego ~ Innocent.
Night 3 ~ dancing spawn of ungoliant, head crushed by a horse ~ Innocent.
Day 3 ~ Feanor of the Peredhil, killed by a chat skwerl ~ Innocent.
Night 4 ~ Findëasëa, maimed by a sea otter ~ Innocent

Living:
Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin - ninja

Day 4 has now begun. Villagers start talking.

Cailín will not be here toDay, but with two people having dropped out already I'm not going to kill her off.

[mormegil]

Okay I thought that Fea was the changling and was helping out on that but I think I just had an epiphany and realized that she would have to drop out either way so she saved us by taking our lynching spot. I could be wrong as I was fairly confused. One thing is certain, Fea though Durelin to be a wolf. I do too and still hold that TGWBS is too.

[Caranlondien]

My goodness. I can't believe I'm not dead... I guess the wolves assumed the Ranger would protect me last Night? Or perhaps I am leading the village completely astray? Or maybe they thought they knew whom I hunted last Night, and it was a wolf.

Having thought I would be dead toDay, I don't really have any thoughts yet. Allow me to get my wits about me, and I'll try to be helpful.

EDIT: cross-posted with mormegil

[Celuien]

I'm sorry that Fea didn't turn out to be the Changling. Now that such a high percentage of the village is gifted or wolvish, s/he can have a far greater impact, and not necessarily to the village's good.

I'm inclined to trust Morm and Nogrod after the business with Fea. We were thinking terribly alike yesterday, and that little flurry was a very exposed place to be.
Known innocent:
Caran

Those I trust, or want to:
Celuien (if I can't trust myself, who can I trust :p)
Nogrod
morm
lmp
Cailín
Mith

Those I'm unsure of/can't read:
Lhuna
Tom
Lommy

Those who are looking suspicious:
TGWBS (yes, I know I thought he was innocent yesterday, but I've done some rethinking)
Durelin (Especially after her throwaway vote for me)

Will return later with more reasoning.

[Durelin]

Well, that was insane. Two more villagers down... Still, we've been lucky: we haven't lost any gifteds yet. Well...I guess it might not be lucky that the changeling is still around.


I guess the wolves assumed the Ranger would protect me last Night?

It's quite possible. And I suppose there's no reason to risk it when they are guaranteed someone else's death...and it seems we've all been on the wrong track, anyway.

What if we try to uncover the changeling? It's possible that they would be able to help, if they picked a wolf at any point. Does whoever is picked by the changeling know that they have been picked? Because if anyone who has been picked by the Changeling and isn't dead would be willing to honestly say that they were picked, then maybe we could draw some kind of connections and trace them back to the changeling? Probably not... Probably too many dead now, and who's to say anyone will be honest? That's just another chance for the wolves to lead us villagers on the wrong trail. *sighs*

Well, we'll see what toDay brings...

[Celuien]

Or maybe they thought they knew whom I hunted last Night, and it was a wolf.
That would be my guess. Otherwise, I'd have expected them to kill the one person here whom the village is pretty sure about trusting.

[Nogrod]

I must say that I share Morm's confusion. I was also sure that Fea was the Changeling - and I still hoped for the "mass-revelation" stuff to happen. Obviously I was wrong...

Caran: I'm not sure about this, but maybe you should share the name of the one you were hunting last night? That could help us figure out the situation. But maybe someone else should also think about this one, for the idea just popped into my mind, and I haven't had time to think whether there are any risks involved. I think not, but at this stage of the game we should be careful (the killed list is just innocent after innocent and I don't like the look of it at all).

EDIT: X-posted with the last three

[Durelin]

Otherwise, I'd have expected them to kill the one person here whom the village is pretty sure about trusting.

Which is exactly what the Ranger would have expected, right? I mean, when you have one person that everyone practically knows is innocent, why not protect them, especially when no one seems to know anything else. If Caran had been killed, then we would be totally in the dark. If we aren't already.

But anyway...enough with that. Caran's still alive. That's all that matters.

[Celuien]

What if we try to uncover the changeling? It's possible that they would be able to help, if they picked a wolf at any point....

Changeling - They cannot choose the same person until 2 Night's has passed, and they cannot reveal anything they have learned about people's roles at Night, but while in posession of a Gift (be it good or evil) they are on that teams side.


However, I believe hints are allowed.

[Durelin]

Hmm...

Thank you very much for that, Celuien!

[Caranlondien]

I shan't be revealing whom I hunted last Night. The wolves know I can't hunt the same person two Nights in a row, and if I tell them I hunted ____ last night and it's the wolf they thought I'd be hunting, they'll know it's safe (well, safer) to go after me toNight.

In any case, I don't know anything more than you guys, so knowing whom I hunted won't help you. I would appreciate, however, your opinions on whom it looked like I was going to hunt. Think from the perspective of a wolf. Knowing what they thought could help me in future decisions.

[Celuien]

You're quite welcome.

Here's (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=470802&postcount=3231) information from the village charter on all things Changling.

[Nogrod]

Thanks Caran.

I had totally forgotten that rule of not being able to pick the same person two days in a row. It's good that you have brains when mine fail... :D

[Celuien]

If I were a wolf, I'd take a look at your non-List-of-Doom (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=472104&postcount=315) from yesterday:

morm
TGWBS
Feanor
Durelin

Feanor was already gone. You voted for morm - I wouldn't think you'd obvious enough to hunt the same person you voted for during the day.

Leaving - guess what - my two main suspects. Durelin and TGWBS.

I'm not sure if this is too obvious, though. They might have been looking at something more subtle in your suspicions. But it's a possibility.

[Durelin]

I'm not sure if this is too obvious, though. They might have been looking at something more subtle in your suspicions. But it's a possibility.

It certainly is, but I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night. Could someone explain? If I'm missing something, then shame on me, and please, feel free to slap me... :rolleyes: ;)

[Caranlondien]

I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night
I, at least, never said I thought they knew who I hunted last Night. What I think is that they thought they knew who I hunted. I'd still like to hear thoughts on this, but the more important item on our agenda toDay is to lynch a wolf...

Lhuna - Need to hear more from her... curse that Timezone-itis!
Cailín - Since she won't be here toDay, I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
Celuien - I still think she's innocent.
TGWBS - Looking a bit wolvish...
Lommy - Need to take another look at her... not sure.
Nogrod - Still looks normal to me.
lmp - Another one we need to take another look at. Fin analyzed him yesterDay, and said she still thought him suspicious, but less so than she had before she analyzed him...
Tom - Doesn't look very wolvish to me, but it's hard to tell with a newbie.
Mith - Not looking too wolvish.
morm - Can't read him at all. Really.
Durelin - Looks a bit wolvish.

So, right now, at least, I'm least suspicious of Cailín, Celuien, and Nogrod.

I want to hear more from Lhuna, Lommy, Tom, Mith, and Durelin.

And I want to keep my eye on TGWBS, lmp, and morm (all of whom I'm sure we'll be hearing plenty from, whether I ask or not :D ).

[Celuien]

It certainly is, but I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night. Could someone explain? If I'm missing something, then shame on me, and please, feel free to slap me... :rolleyes: ;)
What Caran said. It's not that I'm saying they knew who was hunted (how could they?), but Caran's choice was a consideration that had to enter into the wolves' discussion. It would be foolhardy to kill the hunter if there was a good chance she was going to hunt one of the wolf pack. They had to at least think about her target or they'd be stupid. And given that all three are still alive, I doubt that they're dumb.

[Durelin]

Sorry, just noticed this:

Durelin (Especially after her throwaway vote for me)

Out of curiosity, what vote would have made me seem less wolfish?

Edit: Cross-posted with Celuien. Sorry guys, you just seemed rather sure. But yeah, I know exploring the possibilities. I guess I'm just a skeptic...well, not purely, obviously... :D

[Celuien]

Out of curiosity, what vote would have made me seem less wolfish?
Well, I'm not really sure. And if you are a wolf, I'm certainly not going to give you a guidebook on how to quell suspicion. :p I do, however, recall a time when a wolf by the name of Roa attacked my ancestor quite strongly during the day after I began to suspect her. You're not one of her relatives, but the behavior is similar, and it's continuing to make me nervous.

EDIT: Crossed with Durelin's edit.

[Thinlómien]

Well, Fin is dead. I think the wolves thought her to be the seer, so I think someone should go through her posts and see who she suspected. That might help us.
I think no one really did that with spawn, so her suspects could be checked also.
I can do either of them, but not both.

Now, Cara, I can see two options who you hunted: someone you mentioned being suspicious, but who was not on your list of doom yesterday. Like LMP or me, for example. Or maybe Lhuna or Tom. That would be something the wolves wouldn't quite expect, but you would still use your hunt on someone you don't trust. The other option is the obvious one, that you went after morm, TGWBS or Durelin. I guess I would think the same as a wolf, but my guilty conscience would maybe emphasize the option which has me or my fellow wolves on it.

[Nogrod]

After Caran told me that she could not Hunt the same person two Nights in a row, I was a bit baffled - and in the end went checking for the actual ruling. Well I didn't find it from anywhere (no wonder I couldn't remember it). Then I started to wonder about another thing concerning the rules. I have copied below our latest death-toll and bolded some parts of it.

Night 1 ~ Kath, killed by a turtle in an aerial attack ~ Innocent.
Day 1 ~ Boromir, lynched by the villagers by means of lions ~ Innocent.
Night 2 ~ Formendacil, killed by a coyote and it's trickery ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Saucepan Man, lynched by the villagers by means of a platypus catapault ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Nilpaurion Felagund, killed by an emerging alter-ego ~ Innocent.
Night 3 ~ dancing spawn of ungoliant ~ Innocent.
Day 3 ~ Feanor of the Peredhil, killed by a chat skwerl ~ Innocent.
Night 4 ~ Findëasëa ~ Innocent

Looks grim. Yes. But has it been told anywhere, whether the roles of those who are dead will be revealed? If there is a possibility that behind the word innocent might lie something like "the Seer", the Ranger", this would look even more grim than it looks right now. And surely we should look at the game bit differently then.

So please Kath, could you come down to inform us on these matters? Or if anyone else is knowledgeable of these rulings (so they have been somewhere but I just didn't manage to locate them), please share your knowledge.

Feeling quite stupid if they were common knowledge - as I also seemed to have been the only one who thought that 11PM GMT (not BST) is the deadline... :(

[Kath]

The roles of the dead will be revealed. All those that have died so far have been ordinary villagers.

And Caran is right, the Hunter cannot protect the same person two Nights running.

[Celuien]

Feeling quite stupid if they were common knowledge - as I also seemed to have been the only one who thought that 11PM GMT (not BST) is the deadline...
You weren't. Hence my deadline confusion on the first day. :rolleyes:

[Durelin]

Well, I'm not really sure. And if you are a wolf, I'm certainly not going to give you a guidebook on how to quell suspicion. I do, however, recall a time when a wolf by the name of Roa attacked my ancestor quite strongly during the day after I began to suspect her. You're not one of her relatives, but the behavior is similar, and it's continuing to make me nervous.

Do you think I would risk voting for you after you have been suspicious of me if I really was a wolf? But really...I find it interesting that you call my suspicions of you an 'attack.' It's really rather amusing to me that I'm the one who's been called 'overly defensive.'

I'm certainly not going to give you a guidebook on how to quell suspicion.

So is it guilty until proven innocent? ;) I kid, I kid...

Anyway... What was the driving force behind the Fea lynch yesterday? Simply the chance that she might be the changling and wanted to help us? Did she really even want to help us at all? Or is a suicidal villager not worth worrying about at all? I guess not.

Edit:

Caran: I'm not sure about this, but maybe you should share the name of the one you were hunting last night? That could help us figure out the situation. But maybe someone else should also think about this one, for the idea just popped into my mind, and I haven't had time to think whether there are any risks involved. I think not, but at this stage of the game we should be careful (the killed list is just innocent after innocent and I don't like the look of it at all).


A wolfish plot? :p

[littlemanpoet]

One thing is certain, Fea though Durelin to be a wolf. I do too and still hold that TGWBS is too.Why do you think these two are werewolves?

Those who are looking suspicious:
TGWBS (yes, I know I thought he was innocent yesterday, but I've done some rethinking)
Durelin (Especially after her throwaway vote for me)Please explain your thinking on TGWBS. On Durelin, that vote post seems the most supicious thing I've seen all game, except for what I saw from Fin, who it turns out is innocent (drat those cagey wolves!). But I'm not convinced. I can't help thinking that the werewolves are doing an incredibly successful job of hiding out in the open this game. I haven't been able to peg anything on anybody, and it looks much the same with the rest of you. Most disconcerting.

Ah. Here's another one: Durelin is trying to "out" the Changeling. Does that seem like something a werewolf would want in a worse way than an ordo?

It certainly is, but I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night. Could someone explain?Yet another wolvish looking statement. Or am I trumping up non-evidence as evidence?

Out of curiosity, what vote would have made me seem less wolfish?She can't help herself. Werewolvishness that can't help outing itself.

Well, Fin is dead. I think the wolves thought her to be the seer, so I think someone should go through her posts and see who she suspected.Lommy, you just went RED FLAG on my radar. First off, you're doing the classic "I think the wolves thought", which by itself is not as strong a piece of evidence as one might hope, but then this: Fin suspected me, and you know it, and to suggest that we see who she suspected without naming me, is very, very sneaky. Now I wish I could arrange a double lynch, as I suddenly have two strong candidates.

To Celuien: Do you think I would risk voting for you after you have been suspicious of me if I really was a wolf?I do. You're more than capable of the double bluff.

And this last bit about writing off the importance of Fea's plan: if you're the werewolf I think you are, you must be afraid of what it revealed. Otherwise, this post is far too blithe. Were you an innocent, you would be posting earnestly like the rest of us desperate ordos, but instead you're exhibiting your cheerful confidence that you, a werewolf, are so far winning the game. Well, that's about to end as of toDay, I hope.

By the way, I know it seems like I'm awfully confident of what I'm saying. I always come across that way, so I wouldn't make too much of it if I were you, fellow ordos. It's just the way I play this game.

And now for my retractable vote:

++ DURELIN

[Celuien]

Please explain your thinking on TGWBS.
Sure thing, though in abbreviated form as I need to go to the ketchup farm in the morning:

Case TGWBS
1. Too much Pokemon.
2. Almost insisting that we give control of the voting to Caran yesterday. Argument has been made by Mormegil and I forget who else. I think Caran pointed out the problems with that idea as well. Anyway, it seems like an idea that gives wolves a place to hide. Also is a convenient way to ally with the known innocent and look less suspicious by association.

However, point 2 could also be legitimate strategizing. It makes me uneasy, but I keep wavering. Especially since Durelin looks a whole lot more suspicious to me, even though I included both her and The Guy on my possible wolf list.

[mormegil]

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

[Nogrod]

Well, I started working with this look at Durelin yesterDay when the whole Fea-craze began. Now I have finished it and here it comes.

Durelin

Nothing open, nothing clear – that could have been guessed anyway already beforehand. So every single item in this list is as itself not a proof or heavy enough to make Durelin more suspicious than anyone else here, but the wealth of them make me suspect her. But I must make a reservation: I have never played with Durelin before, so I don’t know what is her normal playing style eg. whether these kinds of things are the norm with her.

- Her first Day was full of the teamwork-stuff. As someone already noted, the wolves are the only ones able to think with that mindset. Every innocent or gifted knows that you basically can’t trust anyone. I do think myself that as the game goes on, it’s always an asset to find people to trust – and kind of make it a teamwork. But that’s possible only after you have some grounds to trust someone. Calling for teamplay on Day1 sounds pretty misguided and misleading.

- Then there are a couple of oddities. In #94 she says when defending her vote on Spm:
And in discordance with my belief, this Man stands in the way of the teamwork mindset I'm looking for.
Plus...a threesome-vote is like teamwork...right?
And on the next Day she makes something like an overview on those who have gained votes so far on #217:
Durelin...definitely a wolf.
I have seen wolves doing just this before. It would seem to be far too reckless from a wolf to come up with both of these, but then again we should remember “the bluff – double bluff” –thing too. If we have an intelligent wolf, s/he would probably love to make this “Do you really think I’m that stupid?” –argument.

- Then she seems to be somewhat “overly defencive” as some people have noted. She has gathered suspicion, and I somewhat understand her defencive posting, but still she seems to be somewhat jumpy on these issues. Or what do you think for instance calling two votes a bandwagon against her (#106) or starting a post with saying that she feels no real need to defend herself – and then go on doing just that and over-emphasizing her innocence “And trust me, finding out the SPM was innocent was a real blow for me.” (#263)?

- Her suspicions and votes seem a bit suspicious too, even though most of us have had bad hunches in this game so far (otherwise we would have already caught a wolf or two). So on Day1 she suspects Boro and retracts her nonsense vote on Spm (trying to get him lynched early in the game already?) to vote tom just before the voting is called off. And she had just been ranting all Day how changing votes is bad! On Day2 she comes up with a theory where Spm defended Boro to make himself look good (quite nice theory, I admit, but one that a wolf might make easily). And she votes for Spm. On Day3 she tries to start a case against Celuien (who at least to my eyes seem to be one of the few villagers I tend to trust for now), and she has continued her open suspicions on Celuien up to this date. On Day3 she also voted for Celuien So she has been after Boro (good player, innocent, dead), Spm (good player, innocent, dead) and Celuien (good player, innocent?, ...).

I'm not so suspicious about Durelin as I was when I based my thoughts merely on second hand evaluations, but surely she is topping my list after tgwbs. That's kind of sad, but at least I don't seem to have another clue yet. Hopefully we can come up with some really good ideas before the Day is at an end.

[Celuien]

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.
Elempi really doesn't seem suspicious to me, but I have a feeling he would be awfully good at deflecting suspicion as a wolf. *shrugs* Don't know. What, other than the suspicion casting, makes you suspect him?

That said, time for a vote. I don't know how busy tomorrow is going to be.

++ DURELIN

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Elempi
Please explain your thinking on TGWBS.

Nogrod #322
His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.
These are the latest - when I have looked at his posting.

[Caranlondien]

lmp, I don't know whether to agree with you whole-heartedly or shrink back and shout "Wolf!"... But then, I never do.

Two early votes for Durelin, and one analysis saying she's not as suspicious as she looks initially, but she's still one of the most suspicious people here. Fascinating (another Star Trek fan here, and I thought of Odo, too when I read Fea's posts yesterDay ;) )

It has occurred to me that we should look at people who began to contribute to the bit of suspicion that surrounded Fin. To be honest, I thought she was the Seer, which is why I mentioned her as looking a little suspicious to me - I didn't want the wolves to kill her. It seems they may already have been thinking along the same lines.

Of course, I was one of those people saying she looked suspicious, and I'm the hunter, so it's hardly a stamp on one's death warrant. But it's worth looking at, anyway. Before I mentioned her, she was on everyone's "Probably Innocent" lists. After that, she started appearing on the "Wolvish" lists. Are we all so easily swayed as I am? :D

[Celuien]

Forgot that point about TGWBS's Hunter saving claims. Thanks for reminding me, Nogrod.
...I disagree with his claim that working to save Caran exonerates him - any intelligent wolf would have done the same thing to maintain cover and gain village trust...
Originally posted as the one thing that looked suspicious in an otherwise innocent looking analysis. Now I'm not so sure.

I'm really leaving this time.

[littlemanpoet]

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.
I can't say as I blame you for leaving no stone unturned as we need to find the werewolves fast. So I see your point. However, I confess myself an ordo. By all means, analyze my posts and compare them with others you also find suspicious, and make the choice you deem most wise. Unless, of course, you're throwing my name up, Morm, because you have something furry to hide.... (half closes eyes and looks most suspiciously for the first time this game (admittedly) at Morm....)

[Lhunardawen]

I'm completely relieved to find you yet alive, Caran. With all these distressing events it's nice to have someone to trust - even if you probably know only just as much as we do now.

There's another probable explanation to why you haven't been killed: the wolves would rather risk killing a possible gifted, in this case Fin. Perhaps they thought her to be the Seer or the Changeling, which can sort of explain why she seemed too careful. In a village in history (Werewolf XVIII) a Fool named Formendacil was left alive by the wolves, who went instead for the unknown morm (I think) who turned out to be the Hunter (again, I think). No offense, but like the Fool, you're practically just a simple ordo in life since your gift only comes out in your death.

I'll be reading Fin's last posts to see if there's anything that might have triggered her killing and will be back with it, also with new thoughts on some rather elusive villagers.

But before I do, let me say that my suspect list is now composed of Durelin, tgwbs, and Mith to some extent...perhaps there's reason for me to doubt her sincere-seeming outburst yesterDay.

[mormegil]

Oh that I were the seer and could proclaim that I know that LMP and TGWBS are wolves but I cannot I can only speculate. I must say I've kept this suspicion quiet for a while but now the time it ripe to vocalize it. I've been suspicious of LMP for quite some time now but wanted to keep going under the guise that I trusted him for my plan to lay full. I cannot currently cite posts or make a traditional case. Let's call it a general impression, or gut feeling. His behavior pattern has seemed very parallel to what a wolf would do. He's been vocal enough and accusatory enough to draw sufficient attention to not be accused of that prosaic pharse 'flying under the radar'. He has been bold enough to not be accused of being timid but he's always kept just in the background enough to escape unwanted attention. He's tried to attach himself to some innocent, me included, and he then seems rather altrustic in his response to me but quickly attempt to turn the tables on me and make me the suspicious one.

++LMP

Though TGWBS and Durelin are great candidates as well as I think both them to be wolves.

[Lhunardawen]

I still think that Fin was an interesting choice for a kill last Night since she just started to pick up some suspicions after being practically unnoticed (at least by me) beforehand. The wolves might have thought she was deliberately trying to be a bit suspicious to avoid being killed by Night - and if that was what she did and she was indeed gifted it would have terribly backfired.

The only people she has mentioned yesterDay were Lhuna, Elempi, tom, morm, and tgwbs.

Lhuna - was cautious of her but sees no real reason to suspect her
Elempi - was still suspicious to her, but much less so than before
tom - did not share Caran's suspicions of him
morm - a bit suspicious, but not enough to warrant a vote
tgwbs - her vote

She no longer mentioned Mith, her vote the previous Night, who practically dropped from all our suspicious lists yesterDay.

I guess this makes tgwbs look the worst, if he panicked and thought she was the Seer - after all if I'm not mistaken she was the only one to vote for him yesterDay after morm retracted his vote. But would a wolvish tgwbs risk that? He might.

Speaking of wolvish tgwbs, he tops my suspicion list toDay. That whole issue about giving Caran complete trust with regards to voting reeks of lycanthropy in that he was practically leaving everything in her hands. Also, he seemed the one most concerned that Caran might die that Night, and now we find that she hasn't. A hands-cleaning bluff if I ever saw one.

Now Mith...Mith is a tricky one. This constant exchange of trust between her and morm is partly encouraging in that they might both be gifteds, and partly scary in that they might be wolves engaging in a bold bluff (so I guess I should bring morm back to my suspicions list).

So here's my current list:

Innocent, duh
Caran

Seems innocent
Celuien
Nogrod
Elempi
Cailín

Plain confusing/I don't know
tom
Lommy

Uh-oh
tgwbs
Durelin
Mith
morm

Seems I haven't much time to spare as I thought I have, so here goes:

++THE GUY WHO BE SHORT

I'm sorry if I'm not around as much as you want me, but you can blame Ar-Pharazon for the timezones. Please feel free to voice out any suspicions you might have of me even if you don't think I can answer them toDay, because there's always hope for another Day...

[mormegil]

I guess this makes tgwbs look the worst, if he panicked and thought she was the Seer - after all if I'm not mistaken she was the only one to vote for him yesterDay after morm retracted his vote. But would a wolvish tgwbs risk that? He might.

Generally if the wolves feel they know the seer they will attack him no matter what. It's worth loosing one of their own, especially when they have three, to get rid of their greatest foe. At this stage of the game that reasoning is completely valid though I'm uncertain of it's merit as it's obvious the wolves have no idea who the real seer is. :p

[Caranlondien]

Just by general impressions, without having done any real analysis, lmp and tgwbs are at the top of my suspect list right now. I remember, however, that yesterDay Fin did an analysis of lmp, and she said that by the end she wasn't as suspicious of him as she had previously been.

Generally if the wolves feel they know the seer they will attack him no matter what.
Agreed. It's definitely worth looking at why people might have been killed. But I tend to think the wolves thought Fin was the Seer because of her change in opinion of Mith.

Now Lhuna's posts toDay have been comforting... She looks pretty innocent. And her analysis of Fin looks helpful. Fin's dropping Mith as a suspect might indicate Mith is innocent, as the wolves may have thought Fin dreamt of her the Night before.

I desperately need some sleep. I'll be back well before deadline, though.

Voting Update
lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)

[Thinlómien]

I quickly read through Fin's posting and I found two reasons why the wolves mighthave thought her the seer (besides the Mith-reason Cara presented):
- She changed her opinion of LMP too. This was done by a subtler way, an analysis.
- On Day 2 she stepped to Cara's (who we now know to be our hunter) defense and said a bit later that she was convinced Cara's innocence. Maybe the wolves thought her to be the seer and that she had dreamed of Cara.

My thoughts on everyone in the village:
Lhuna - feels pretty innocent to me. I can't think of nything very suspicious in her.
Cailín - difficult to read, but I'd say she's innocent
Celuien - feels very innocent to me. Doesn't make me alarmed in any sense.
TGWBS - suspicious, but I'd still hesitate to vote him because I fear he might just be innocent again
Lommy - innocent
Nogrod - I don't find anything particularly suspicious in him.
lmp - I think Fin's death might point to his innocence. I can't see anything very suspicious in him in other ways either.
Tom - not sure what to think of him. Makes good points, but I'm not sure if I can trust him.
Caran - hunter and innocent, o'course
Mith - Her RL-based defense was quite convincing, but her SPM-arguments and u-turn on Day 2 (?) still look a bit bad.
morm - I'm still wary of him, though he makes more sense day after day. His post #268 still troubles me.
Durelin - might be an innocent as well as a wolf. She's just plain confusing. I would hesitate to vote her without a good reason.

Now, toDay we should catch a wolf. Really. Otherwise we're in a big bad trouble later on.

[littlemanpoet]

Oh that I were the seer and could proclaim that I know that LMP and TGWBS are wolves but I cannot I can only speculate. I must say I've kept this suspicion quiet for a while but now the time it ripe to vocalize it. I've been suspicious of LMP for quite some time now but wanted to keep going under the guise that I trusted him for my plan to lay full. I cannot currently cite posts or make a traditional case. Let's call it a general impression, or gut feeling.Ah. I see how it is. So that leaves me trying to determine whether you're honestly mistaken or a werewolf trumping up a case. All I ask is that you compare my posts, in substance, to those of Durelin. Who is acting more like a werewolf? Obviously, you could object that it's one werewolf trying to look good at the expense of another. And maybe if I were one I might play that way. That's about the best answer I can give you, Morm, and shall in the meantime concentrate on trying to help my fell ordos extricate the werewolves (you?) from their cynical silence.

However, I find myself pretty convinced of the innocence of Morm, Mith, Celuien, & Lhuna. Largely because there's an intermingling of trust between these four already, their posts have been mutually supporting, and they ring true (except about me, Morm).

EDIT: Okay, Lommy isn't using Fin's analysis the way I suspected she might. So my suspicions of her are relaxed. Oh, one more likely innocent: Nogrod; which leaves my list of suspicious characters rather small: Durelin, tom, Guy. Cailin I can't say much about and so won't.

[the guy who be short]

If I had time for an indignant response, be sure that I would post one. As it is, what time I do have must be spent on productive activities, not destructive ones, especially as my only suspect died in the night.

I don't see that any good points have been made against me so far. All of this "mounting suspicion" seems unwilling to base itself on fact, or at least on objective fact. Here I outline the very few points brought against me.

Case TGWBS
1. Too much Pokemon.
2. Almost insisting that we give control of the voting to Caran yesterday. Argument has been made by Mormegil and I forget who else. I think Caran pointed out the problems with that idea as well. Anyway, it seems like an idea that gives wolves a place to hide. Also is a convenient way to ally with the known innocent and look less suspicious by association.It's notable that 50% of my suspicion comes from liking pokémon. Never mind all the other analysis and substance that goes with it - the pokémon is condemning! I see.

To those who have vocally opposed the idea of giving Caran power - Nogrod, morm, now Celuien - I do not claim to understand you. Perhaps you are merely weak or obstinate. Perhaps you are wolves.

An objective shortlist eliminates lupine autonomy. It narrows votes into a field small enough to make lupine influence much less significant - With four people to choose from, each one would receive an average of three or four votes. All the wolves voting for one of the candidates, were they stupid enough to do so, would not unduly influence the innocents, as three votes for one person would be entirely expected.

To all those claiming "good points" have been made about how wolves could "manipulate" the shortlist - I bid you make them. I have not heard them. All I find is vague mentionings of "easy manipulation" with no description. Perhaps there is something I have overlooked, in which case I will not be afraid to admit it. But first, you must clarify what you mean.

The third and final point that had been levied against me:
His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.Is simply a variation of the above, with one addition sentence, which is that I eagerly show my innocence. A wolf would not try to save the Hunter. The Hunter is dangerous, and gets increasingly dangerous for wolves as the village gets smaller. A wolf would pretend not to be online and let the Hunter die, lynched and taking nobody with them. People who cannot see this are irrational.



On a separate note, I think I will vote

++LHUNA

Because innocents don't go around naming their gifteds, especially at this stage in the game.

[the guy who be short]

Oh, I might as well come out with it. Can't help the wolves if I talk about my theory because it's wrong. I thought Fea was implying that she's the Changling and wanted us to lynch her not only to limit the number of villager deaths if she wound up being auto-eliminated but also to prevent her joining the wolf team and losing the game for the village that way. But I'm wrong.That doesn't make sense. How would Fea joining the wolves for one Night cause the village to lose?

You've moved into my suspicious list, Celuien. You go with the flow. Yesterday you were all for lynching Durelin and still are. Today, now that the momentum is here, no doubt with lupine influence, you suddenly display an interest in lynching me. Yesterday I was one of your innocents. On day two, you voted Caran at the height of her vote garnering.

You seem more suspicious that Lhuna, actually. She could just be an innocent - I know she's bad at hiding things. And she's spoken sense in the past. You, meanwhile...

--LHUNA

++CELUIEN


You may have noticed I am going after some of the more quiet ones today. I can't suspect morm anymore. He feels innocent - if clueless. Wolves thrive on loud arguments, and morm and I often provide them, getting lynched. Lommy and morm both seem innocent to me now.

Innocent:
Caran

Confident innocent:
Cailín
Mith
morm

Probably innocent:
lmp
Lommy

Possibly innocent:
Durelin
Lhuna

Leaving me with my wolves:
Celuien
Nogrod
Tom

I think the last five will contain two or three of our wolves.

[the guy who be short]

Fin's death is, I suspect, a plot to get me lynched. Not only did she vote for me, I voiced great suspicion of her yesterday. She was to be my main suspect today. Fortuitously, by removing her, the wolves have allowed me to focus my attention elsewhere.

It may sound pompous and self-important, but character such as morm and I have a knack for getting ourselves lynched. Yesterday we came disastrously close to lynching morm, tomorrow or, less likely, today, that attention shifts to me.

But why would the wolves set me up rather than killing Caran? Opinions have been voiced, but I prefer to investigate myself, as usual.

However, I would like outside support in figuring out what on Earth happened yesterday. Why did we lynch Fea? What exactly did it achieve?

At various points, I thought she was a wolf, the Seer, the Changling and, briefly, the real Hunter.

Where's the revelation? How are we saved?

Off to revise. Back later.

[the guy who be short]

P.S. The most important point I have raised is the lack of solid opposition to my shortlist idea. I think it's brilliant. Tell me how it can be manipulated, or I'll just presume it can't and ask Caran for another one.

[Cailín]

I am here but greatly distressed (real life...). This will be my only post toDay. I'm sorry. I accidentally found an internet cafe in the middle of nowhere. ;)

If you trust me, trust me.

You are looking in the wrong direction. Especially Mormegil.

Do with this info as you will.

++LMP

Though I am not sure about this one.

[Celuien]

That doesn't make sense. How would Fea joining the wolves for one Night cause the village to lose?
Fea picks Seer
Fea knows Seer identity
Fea joins wolves
Fea kills Seer
Dead Seer doesn't get to reveal dreams
Village in trouble

Suspect me if you will, but again, I can't help it if my thoughts are along the same lines as other in the village. Who's to say there isn't good reason for common suspicion? Might be something to it...

[Thinlómien]

Fin's death is, I suspect, a plot to get me lynched. Not only did she vote for me, I voiced great suspicion of her yesterday. She was to be my main suspect today. Fortuitously, by removing her, the wolves have allowed me to focus my attention elsewhere. I disagree. At this phase of the game, there's still all three wolves left and the village seems to be quite clueless about their identities. Why would they try to frame someone? They are, in my opinion, too worried about the seer at the moment and probably trying to get rid of her.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

Today Morm has suspected lmp, tgwbs and earlier also Durelin. Whether his being looking at the wrong direction implies also Durelin, I don't know, but clearly tgwbs is implied. The vote for lmp kind of takes him out from the "wrong direction"-list.

So I will not be voting tgwbs - and wouldn't be going for Durelin either. That's interesting but also understandable as they both have received a lot of suspicion.

But that kind of opens the situation anew. And I hope we will not have yet another panicky vote scenario (Spm, Fea) this evening. They seem to end in bad choices.

tgwbs: I think Fea was trying to help us gracefully as she wanted to get out of the game for RL reasons.

[Mithalwen]

.

And Caran is right, the Hunter cannot protect the same person two Nights running.
Generally deeply confused but surely the Hunter cannot protect anyone? Still reading through and astounded that Fea was not the Changeling ..

[the guy who be short]

Mith - I think Kath was confused. I don't remember there ever being rules about who the Hunter chooses. She seems to have mixed up Ranger and Hunter.

Celuien - you actually make sense. I didn't think of that. In that case

--CELUIEN

++LHUNA again.

For my original reason and for her wolf-list which seems ill thought-out to me. Also:That whole issue about giving Caran complete trust with regards to voting reeks of lycanthropy in that he was practically leaving everything in her hands. Also, he seemed the one most concerned that Caran might die that Night, and now we find that she hasn't. A hands-cleaning bluff if I ever saw one.Your first point, as I've said before, doesn't make sense to me. It has yet to be explained.
Your second also doesn't make sense to me. Explain how it works. At the moment it looks like you killed her specifically to say that, but didn't think through the logic behind it.

I disagree. At this phase of the game, there's still all three wolves left and the village seems to be quite clueless about their identities. Why would they try to frame someone? They are, in my opinion, too worried about the seer at the moment and probably trying to get rid of her.False. Up until now, we have been chasing loudmouths. Now, we have come to a point where, if the wolves do not keep pressure on the village, we will start looking at a new batch of people - something I have already started doing.

Also, wolves would not try to lynch the Seer. They take him/her in the night. They lynch whomever is opportune.

[mormegil]

Could I actually drop my suspicions of TGWBS? Something tells me he's innocent, yet he feels so guilty. I fully and truthfully recognize that there are some (TGWBS, Kath, Lommy) who always seem guilty to me whether they are or not. However, with that said I still keep my vote for LMP and call it a good one. If TGWBS is innocent I believe Lhuna does bear a bit more watching as she has felt different this game than any prior I've had with her.

TGWBS I cannot currently give any examples of how to manipulate a list because

1. We do not have the list.
2. I am not a wolf ergo my thought process is different
3. I wouldn't want to give any hints to the wolves, just in case they were too obtuse to think of ways themselves.

I generally found it easy to manipulate the list and use it to the wolfish advantage when we had it.

[the guy who be short]

morm - Could you give examples? As we're not actually using a list, you do not need to fear the wolves using your ideas. What did you do last game? I'm sorry to go on and on about it, but I really can't see how wolves could possibly thwart it.

tgwbs: I think Fea was trying to help us gracefully as she wanted to get out of the game for RL reasons.
But how was this to our advantage? How did it help "save" us? Surely it would have been more advantageous to ask to be removed so we could actually lynch a potential wolf? I still don't understand what happened yesterday, and am looking at you space-thingy fans (Morm, Celuien) to explain it. Or just admit you're as lost as I am. :p

Anywho... Off to lunch, then revision, then analysing Lhuna, Nogrod and Tom, if time.

[mormegil]

Well regarding Fea, we either kill an unknown Durelin and loose innocent Fea at night, potentially being out 2 innocents, or simply loose 1 innocent. True we loose an innocent at night again but at least we didn't loose 2 during the day. Now I'm not sure about Durelin, but Fea was fairly certain that somehow she caught her.

The list: it depends upon the scenario last game we could sacrifice wolves rather easily and not be too much out for it. However I would think that a maximum of one sacrifice this game would be all we are likely to see. But generally they see the narrowed list and make a case against the most suspicious looking innocent on it. That way their vote doesn't look that odd. Oh and the votes aren't spread evenly in my experience. They generally fall to 2 of the 4 candidates. Also being that Caran has no special knowledge her list isn't really that helpful as it may contain zero wolves, thus giving the wolves at least one more day where little to no analysis was done because of our fancy little list.

[Nogrod]

Of lists...

I still think that letting Caran make the list all by herself would not have been the wisest thing to do. It would have been like putting all our eggs into the same basket. And even Caran admits this. She has also openly confessed being easily swayed by other peoples arguments (and Morm already pointed out the other side of the problem).

But if we can assume now, that we know of, or possibly should at least trust for three innocents (Caran, tgwbs, Durelin), it might be wise to see their collective lists. Everyone of the three picking f.ex. four suspicious people and then we could pick the common choices as our list of sorts. That would greatly enhance the "objectiviness" of the list.

Of Fea-lynch...

What happened? From my point of view I was first as worried as you seem still to be and tried to call for a stop to that seeming madness. Then I had some time to reconsider and started thinking that it was the Changeling-Fea that had picked the Seer (or the Ranger) last night and was afraid to pick a wolf soon and so being forced to kill the Gifted. If we add to this that she seemed to have RL-problems and was willing to get off the game, lynching would be the right way to go - preventing any actively-playing innocent (or even someone she had picked already and knew to be innocent) to be lynched. It surely was, and probably is still more probable that we lynch innocents, not the wolves. So wise in that sense.


But as I said, I would like to see lists by Caran, tgwbs and Durelin. I might be ready to vote on the basis of those toDay.

[Kath]

Ooh yes I did mix that up. To clarify:

The Hunter cannot hunt the same person two Night's running.

The Ranger cannot protect the same person to Night's running.

[the guy who be short]

But as I said, I would like to see lists by Caran, tgwbs and Durelin. I might be ready to vote on the basis of those toDay.Cailin's statement was a little cryptic. But I'll be happy to do that after I go over a few things. I think I've overpromised myself - An analysis of yesternight, of Lhuna, of Tom and of Nogrod are probably beyond me. But I'll get started now.

Morm - I could argue forever. :D Let's not go there.

Fea's lynching - I get it. I just don't think it was that helpful... Better lynch a potential wolf than a definite innocent. Then again, that girl is completely insane (see siggy).

[the guy who be short]

She actually made good points on Day 1 about the Changeling being a "Second Seer." She neglects that the Changeling cannot openly state who they are and says they should open up their secrets with the Seer when the time is right.

While posts 142 and 143 do seem to be full of deep thought, Lhuna does have a startling habit of picking out innocent - morm, LMP, Durelin and Fea come under suspicion, while Cailin, SpM and Caran are mentioned.

Days one and two she doesn't give reasoning for her votes - Me and Durelin respectively.

Day 3 sees a long post making lots and lots and lots of sense. Lots of things I agree with - but she does suspect Fin. Anyway, seems logical to me.

I'm being kicked off now, but I'll finish later. Less suspicious of Lhuna now.

[Caranlondien]

Right... I put TGWBS as one of my top suspects last night (my time) to see his reaction, and I think he's innocent. lmp, I'm still suspicious of.

Concerning the Fea-lynching, it's too bad we lost an innocent, but I don't think it's worth dwelling on it. I'm certainly not suspicious of anyone for voting for her; she asked us to. I thought she was the Changeling as well, but it turns out (I think) that she was just trying to buy us more time to think about the other suspects, as otherwise she either would have had to leave the game for RL reasons or we would have ended up lynching her anyway because she'd turned so quiet.

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

[littlemanpoet]

I am here but greatly distressed (real life...). This will be my only post toDay. I'm sorry. I accidentally found an internet cafe in the middle of nowhere. ;)

If you trust me, trust me.

You are looking in the wrong direction. Especially Mormegil.

Do with this info as you will.

++LMP

Though I am not sure about this one.So does this make Mormegil a known innocent? Does this mean Cailin is the seer? Or the changeling? I need more information. Cailin, you're looking in the wrong direction yourself. Obviously, if you're the seer, you haven't dreamed about me. If you're the changeling, I'm not sure what to think, except that you must have Changed with Morm and found nothing. So you must know who ISN'T guilty, but not who IS.

[Celuien]

Okay, okay, TGWBS. I'm flipping again. You seem much more innocent.

*Dramatic music plays. Voice over - Will Celuien ever make up her mind? Stay tuned.* :rolleyes:

I'm sticking with my Durelin vote for now. The 'wrong direction' taken by Morm would seem to be most applicable to TGWBS...

*Runs back to farm, hoping to be back today...*

[tom bombariffic]

Hi all,

Just the one post and vote for me today I'd imagine - it's been a titanic monday for us tree surgeons. May be able to get back for one more post in an hour or so, but lots to do in between, so apologies for my knock-and-run appearance today.

Fea. I don't know what happened...when reading through I, like everyone else, assumed her to be the changeling. She clearly had a plan in mind, but I honestly think it was simply to rid the village of its most useless player. She was extremely earnest, but I think she felt that she had to be to combat the village's opposition to her suicide. I can only assume that she thought the other lynching candidates were innocent, and saw herself as a sacrificial lamb. Morm's point about her having to drop out anyway and thus saving a life is also a possibility. As I said...just don't know.

So why is she still here? I see three possibilities (in no particular order):
1) That fin's suspicions were so threatening, she HAD to be killed immediately.
2) That they worried that the ranger would protect her/she would hunt them
3) That they want to leave her until she starts to gather suspicion for still being alive.

----

General consent seems to be that the second is the most likely option. Her vote (and thus her main suspicion) yesterday was for TGWBS, who seems to have gained the village's trust today. I remain uncertain; I suspect him less than yesterday, because his posts seem genuine and he has more concrete arguments behind his points today than perviously, for example that we should explore the darker corners of the village (even if that includes me!). I still do not fully trust him, mostly because I disagree with his actual ideas, for example the one I just cited. I think that to simply trust vocal villagers because recently dead vocal villagers were innocent is foolhardy, and could lead to us trusting a strong wolf, who will lead us astray - we all know from neighbouring villages how much damage a strong wolf that everyone trusts can do. This is NOT to say that quiet villagers should not be investigated as well; I imagine that the wolves will play with as varied styles as possible, and probably consist of at least one loud and at least one quiet villager. But to ignore the vocal villagers is foolish, in my opinion. In conclusion: I trust TGWBS's earnestness and something about his language makes me think he believes what he is saying, but I'm still wary of him because I don't agree with what he says, and fear that if my judging of his earnestness is wrong, he could do a lot of damage.

---

I fear Durelin. I smell a rat. Having noticed how strongly she defended herself yesterday, my attention was more focused on her today, and so perhaps I am looking for suspicious signs, but I do not trust her suggestions to be genuine. In post 443, she suggests that we should uncover the changeling. Her reasoning is poor and she admits at the end that it may just be a way for the wolves to cause more confusion by being dishonest, but then why did she post the message, and not simply remove the suggestion? I suspect that perhaps she wanted someone else to take up her argument and eventually to reveal the changeling, who of course she (if she is a wolf) could then kill.

She has also toned down her defensiveness from yesterday, but seems to still protest her innocence too readily, using smilies to soften the blow. I simply don't trust someone who feels the need to question everything that goes against them: suspicion is part and parcel of the game, and unless it is a serious and threatening accusation, most people would choose to leave it.

----

I have to go; I've just looked over morm, lommy and celuien's posts from today, but I have no time for lengthly analysis I'm afraid: I'll give it in brief:

MORM seems the same to me as yesterday. He has become no more suspicious, whilst in my mind Durelin has skyrocketed for the reasons above and her hasty vote yesterday, mentioned numerous times by others on the thread.

CELUIEN I have been unsure for a while - I never know what to think of her, whether she is helping expose suspects or getting others' backs up to cause trouble. today she seems trustworthy and intelligent, and for the moment I feel comfortable with her.

LOMMY was a suspect from yesterday who did not grab my attention today, and when I went back and looked over her posts, I saw nothing blatantly wolvish - she remains behind Durelin and Morm in my suspicions.

My vote:

++ Durelin

have to run.

bombariffic

[Caranlondien]

I'm afraid once again I'll have to leave the village somewhat early. I'm thinking over my vote....

Sorry, I just can't help updating the voting list 20 times a day:

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)