Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Lalaith]

Sorry, I meant Nilp, and will edit accordingly. I was trying to process too much information...:rolleyes:

[Anguirel]

A quick look at last evening's votes: (plagiarised from Firefoot, thankyou, what a gift)

Yesterday's voting:

Ang – 1 (Morm 1)
Lalaith – 2 (Findeasea 2, Firefoot 15)
Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10)
Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11)
Holby – 3 (Rune 5, SpM 6, Durelin 13)
Jenny - 1 (Kath 7)
Lhuna – 4 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9, Taliesin 12, Holby 14)
Morm – 1 (Gurthang 16)

Did not vote: Form, TGWBS, Diamond

morm's vote I can well recognise and sympathise with. It was the start of a Crusade against me; its earliness and persistence were supposed to emphasise its power. Shades of my flailings against Diamond in the Werepenguin attack, but unlike I did I think morm intended this with a true heart. Sometimes there are people who you acquire a desperate need to be sure about; to be sure, if necessary, by the agency of hanging them. I suppose this is the relation in which I stood to morm.

Findeasea's was a consistent vote, as I noted earlier. Its consistency fits strangely with the vagueness of its material both times-simply that Lalaith was behaving in a characteristically aethereal and subtle manner-and perhaps suggests Fin had little to go on. Firefoot's seconding-with scarcely any reasoning-would in normal stances be extremely suspicious, but by then the Lhuna campaign was in full swing. Still, a good camouflage vote for a wolf.

The bandwagon against Firefoot herself was, we know, started with honest intentions by the late Lhuna. Could Caran's support-making Firefoot a contender for lynching with Lhuna-have been an innocent-binding exercise? I tend to suspect Caran more than Firefoot for this reason.

Lalaith, like her rationalist (have I got it right?) adversary Fin, stuck to her guns and voted Formendacil. She was seconded by our Hunter. This was before the Lhuna case had started so was not a deliberate rival. We know, though, that it targetted an innocent-but such a suspicious looking innocent. Form was an uninspired choice but not an inexplicable one.

Holby's case was always going to be a fairly numerous one. Many had expressed suspicion of her. This might speak quite well for those within the bandwagon, as not being unwilling to risk lynching a wrong candidate. Sauce looks the most innocent Holby-voter; he'd long suspected her and was, if you like, the bandwagon's true starter rather than Rune. Not unduly worried about Rune and Durelin as yet though.

Jenny's lone condemnation from Kath looks pretty bad to me. Her ambiguous hints had warned most to stay well away; it was unlikely she'd gather votes and so was a safe choice for a wolf wishing to avoid guilt and lurk from the limelight. However, Kath-Wolf would also have to be bold enough to vote for a strongly suspected Gifted.

The Lhuna bandwagon. This was basically, in my book, a misshapen monster. Both Glirdan and I nursed (for different reasons) suspicion of Lhuna and I obstinately didn't want to budge to Firefoot who I was starting to suspect less. Taliesin's vote is reminiscent of his late support for Eomer's lynching-but with baneful success behind it this time, due to Holby's self-preservation vote (understandable enough.) I suspect Taliesin most from this lot.

Gurthang's vote for morm was basically a spoilt ballot, an abstension with a political purpose (I presume). It represents an unwillingness to make a decision which could be characteristic of a wolf or a villager seeking to avoid death.

Thus, bold my brave companions, hear these three
Kath, Taliesin, fair Caran, from me
Are most arrayed in darkness; then mayhap
Firefoot; Gurthang I with white feathers slap.

[Durelin]

Oh yeah...I guess I could explain a couple things just so you guys have some more interesting things to pick apart, analyze, and quarrel over. Or not.

I voted for Holby because I was much more certain that Lhuna was innocent. Lhuna was Lhuna, and not wolfish Lhuna, in my opinion.

Wolfish Lhuna is much less interesting, and so much less likely to get lynched. ;)

Oh, and about Jenny - yeah, I really doubted she was the Hunter. I thought the Hunter would...well...at least try to stay low... :p Though I suppose that might have been why she didn't vote for Eomer to save Nilp. Still, I really don't think that would've brought much attention to her in the way of being the Hunter or any sort of Gifted.

I'll be back in an hour or so. Have fun while I'm gone! :cool:

[mormegil]

++Firefoot

Lal, on what do you want me to elaborate?

[Lalaith]

On this:

Well I somewhat agree with you, but it is interesting to note that Jenny changes her suspicion from Formen, Gurthang and Firefoot to a whole list of people on which Gurthang and Firefoot are not. Yet again another piece to a probably specious puzzle but it makes me further suspect those two.
Do you mean that Gurthang and Firefoot thought Jenny was the Hunter and thought it was safe to kill her?

[Firefoot]

Firefoot's seconding-with scarcely any reasoning Lalaith was on my suspicions list all Day. During my analysis, she looked like one of the most guilty to me (and post 192, it's her and Formen who are in my "suspicious" category).

Okay, remember how I said I didn't know how much I was going to be around? I don't know now if I'm going to be back before deadline (I thought I would have more time than this now), so I have to vote:

++Durelin

A second look at her posts is making me uncomfortable. Her banter with Nilp on Day 1 would be an extremely easy place for a wolf to hide. I wish she had provided some reasoning for a vote for Holby yesterDay. Shoot, I'm not done, and I have to go. Shoot, shoot. Hopefully I'll be back later.

[Taliesin]

It is as I feared.. Lhuna innocent, the more I thought about it the more I came to realise my vote didn't make much sense at all. I just couldn't get a grip on her, but after my vote, I came to realise 'why would a wolvish Lhuna act like that?' It didn't make much sense. Alas, it is too late now.

Nothing is lost yet, but today we should be absolutely certain of lynching a wolf. If we loose two more innocents before the next day, I fear we're in far deeper trouble then we are now.

Unfortunately, I can't be here until the deadline, I will have to vote in an hour.

So either of these will most likely get my vote.

Glirdan
The Saucepan Man

Why? I'll tell you why.

The Eomer kill taught us that we have some bold wolves in our midst. I think those wolves are most likely not people who are trying to 'lay low' or try to go 'under the radar'. These wolves are trying to point us villagers into directions they want us to face.

So far Glirdan has been trying to take lead of our village and point us in wrong directions. On Day 1, he made a vote for Kath, based on her being a slave, so basically with little to no reason at all, and vanishes for the rest of the day.

Day 2 he comes back saying he isn't suprised Eomer got killed at all, why not? Because it was you all along who planned? I was rather suprised they killed Eomer and with me most of the villagers.

After that, Glirdan starts analyzing the people who voted for Eomer, saying the people who voted probably have a wolf in their midst. Most likely there is, however with 4 werewolves there's a high chance out of five people at least one of them is a wolf.
In his analyses, he brings up about point about me, which in all fairness can be described as suspicious. But when he analyzed Rune, he found nothing suspicious, yet added him to his list of suspects nontheless. Same story goes for Lhuna and let me quote this part:

This is probably the oddest post I have read all Day but it doesn't surprise me. The only thing that's odd is her vote for Eomer which was completely baseless. Other than that, nothing truly suspicious about her

Nothing truly suspicious, but still a suspect? He is trying to point us in a direction we shouldn't be looking!
Later on, he claims Rune is a more vocal player and therefore claims him again quilty without a good reason as Rune later on says he isn't really a vocal player at all ( maybe Rune is just too modest about himself ;) ).

But it gets better. Later on the day, he suggests we look at the quieter people who voted for Eomer, completely contradicting with my views. I think we should look at the off-voters, and the people who are trying to take things in their own hands. Which would be Glirdan.


On the other hand, we have The Saucepan Man. He has been, on the surface, a great help for all of us, as he always is a helpful innocent to have around. Yet that is exactly the thing that makes it easy to trust him, I feel like I want to trust him. This is the feeling that scares me off him. He's not likely to be lynched at all, so having him as a wolf would be bad, very bad indeed. As Diamond said
His posts have made me feel uneasy, and the fact that most everyone else is putting him on their "likely innocent" lists makes me even more uneasy.
This is the same feeling I have. It's mostly just a scary thought, what if he isn't an innocent as everyone seems so eager to think.
He was the one pointing out the possibility of Jenny being the hunter, which he gladly pointed out. Knowing it was safe to kill her because she didn't suspect him at all, it might be his doing aswell. He's certainly bold enough to pull a trick like they did on Eomer and completely fits the way a wolf would act as I see it. Then again, he's always one of the most influential people around.

That being said, ofcourse I don't claim the rest to be innocent at all, but I really feel if we catch one wolf today we're going the right way again, and have all the time to look at someone else the next day.

That's it, for now. I realise I might be off the safe grounds with this post. Also after completing this post I only have 15 minutes left before voting instead of the hour I had before I started writing.

I hope to get a few thoughts on this matter before I have to vote.

[Durelin]

Alas, I somehow managed two whole days without anyone voting for me.

Okay, here are my suspects :

Rune
Holby
Anguirel

Possibly Taliesin.

I have some dirt on them.

Wow, I'm being consistent.

I almost put Saucie on that list, but...

This is the same feeling I have. It's mostly just a scary thought, what if he isn't an innocent as everyone seems so eager to think.
He was the one pointing out the possibility of Jenny being the hunter, which he gladly pointed out. Knowing it was safe to kill her because she didn't suspect him at all, it might be his doing aswell. He's certainly bold enough to pull a trick like they did on Eomer and completely fits the way a wolf would act as I see it. Then again, he's always one of the most influential people around.

I know, but that's how Saucie always is. Everyone tends to trust him, and a few people just want to get rid of him because he's scary because people want to trust him. But I'm not thinking of lynching him right now. Why? Because of the Jenny thing. Why would he have brought the Hunter thing up if he (as a wolf) was planning to get her that night? He would've left it unspoken, I imagine, unless he was being bold. Possible. But right now, I doubt it.

[Taliesin]

Time has to come vote

++Glirdan

For reasons in post #257

[Gurthang]

Diamond - The Saucepan Man (Saucepan-1)
Rune - TGWBS (Saucepan-1, Guy-1)
mormegil - Firefoot (Saucepan-1, Guy-1, Firefoot-1)
Firefoot - Durelin (Saucepan-1, Guy-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1)
Taliesin - Glirdan (Saucepan-1, Guy-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1)



This came when he voted for me. Odd, I don’t remember ‘gunning’ for Glirdan yesterday. In fact I simply mentioned him in passing that I thought he was a wolf. That’s not ‘gunning’. If anything you could say that I was gunning for Anguirel, who insultingly calls me ‘special’.
Okay, I went back to get quotes and stuff to refute this, but I couldn't find any. Which seems really weird to me, because I seem to remember you saying more stuff about Glirdan than you did, and usually my memory about that kind of thing isn't so off.

Actually, I'm beginning to think you're innocent. Somewhat because I was wrong about the above, but more because of the way you attacked me for it. That's the vengeful way you usually act when you're innocent, as somebody else has mentioned already.

Holby, as far as my 'suspicious late votes': I get off work half an hour before Day ends. So I am able to vote late and so I do, rather than vote 8 hours early. But both days when I get here the votes have worked so that the people who are likely to get lynched are people who I don't suspect, and so really didn't feel like voting for. I did become somewhat suspicious of you because of your vote, but didn't have time to look back at you, and so voted for morm.

Now, I've got over two hours to look back through stuff. Primarily at Guy and Holbytlass, but I'll see if I can spot anything else.

[Durelin]

Hmmm...I forgot about Gurthang. That's something I should worry about.

Unfortunately I have to vote now....

++Rune

[Caranlondien]

First, a recap of voting so far:
1. Diamond-->SpM (SpM 1)
2. Rune-->tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)
3. mormegil-->Firefoot (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Firefoot-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)
5. Taliesin-->Glirdan (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1)
6. Durelin-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1)

Now, mainly for my own sanity (because otherwise I'm always going back and finding I've missed someone and jumping all around changing my suspicions), a list of passengers and my feelings about them:

Durelin - Seems quite normal to me so far. Nothing has peaked my suspicions.
Holbytlass - I could see her being a wolf. I have no past experience to compare her behavior to, though. She's made a lot of short posts, allowing her to maintain a presence without saying much at any given time. However, that could just as easily be the behavior of an innocent.
Findëasëa - Seems normal to me as well. I don't think she's a wolf.
Kath - Someone mentioned they thought Kath would involve herself more as a wolf. However, I have a distinct memory of her being a wolf flying under the radar, and successfully so, in that I never suspected her. I think it's worth going back over her posts.
Lalaith - Doesn't seem suspicious to me, but I've barely noticed her, so I don't want to discount her too easily. If I have time, I may go over her posts too.
Diamond18 - It's possible she's a very bold wolf, or a wolf who honestly has RL issues. But I think it's more likely she's innocent.
Firefoot - I'm still sort of nervous about her, but not as suspicious as I was yesterDay. I don't think she'll get my vote toDay; her recent posts have seemed innocent enough.
Gurthang - Still wary of him. Something just seems different about him, but I can't really pin it down to anything he's said. It's a gut feeling.
Rune Son of Bjarne - Another one I know nothing about. I really don't know what to think about him, and with other more pressing suspects, I don't plan to vote for him.
Mormegil - Making me nervous. I've seen him as a careful wolf in the past, but I think he could also be a bold wolf.
Taliesin - Reminding me of a certain wolf-newbie an ancestor of mine came across. He's on my radar, but not overly suspicious-looking.
Saucepan Man - I forget who it was, but someone said that the only reason I trust SpM is that he's been unfairly lynched in the past - not so. I trust him because he's seemed helpful and sensible. Perhaps you misinterpreted my joke about how I never trust him when he's innocent, so maybe my trusting him means he's guilty? :D Anyway, I still trust him.
Anguirel - He doesn't look suspicious to me. Won't be voting for him toDay, in any case.
Glirdan - I've been a little concerned about him, but not overly suspicious.
[the guy who be short - what concerns me is his relative silence. I'm used to a more vocal tgwbs. Could be RL, but also could be wolvishness.

Suspects
Holbytlass
Kath
Firefoot
Gurthang
Mormegil
tgwbs

EDIT: cross-posted with Gurthang and Durelin, added latest vote

[The Saucepan Man]

I have not been much help today, for which I apologise. Too much fine sport to be had on the magic box.

I really have little more to go on than when the Day started and have had little time toDay to look at the options. So I shall stick with my ongoing suspicion of Holby, which has not dimmed.

+ + HOLBYTLASS

I realise that this further widens an already broad field of candidates, but I think that no bad thing.

I shall try to be of more use tomorrow, assuming that I survive 'til then.

[Glirdan]

Okay, Taliesin has brought about things about me that I'd like to clarify (mostly for him but for others who have been wondering it as well):

So far Glirdan has been trying to take lead of our village and point us in wrong directions. On Day 1, he made a vote for Kath, based on her being a slave, so basically with little to no reason at all, and vanishes for the rest of the day.

Wow, I'm taking initiative. I think that would be an improvement more than anything. And even then, I don't think I'm trying to "lead" anyone. I'm voicing facts and my opinions, which is what we're supposed to do, right? I vanished because I had studying to do for my exams (there's only one left so bear with me).

Day 2 he comes back saying he isn't suprised Eomer got killed at all, why not? Because it was you all along who planned? I was rather suprised they killed Eomer and with me most of the villagers.

I was actually debating in my mind over the Night who the Wolves victim would be. I was debating either Saucy or Eomer because both are very intelligent players and would be a danger to the Wolves (which is a reason why I'm uneasy about Saucy as well. I'll get to that in a miute). And I think you should go back and correct yourself, there were quite a few who weren't surprised so...

In his analyses, he brings up about point about me, which in all fairness can be described as suspicious. But when he analyzed Rune, he found nothing suspicious, yet added him to his list of suspects nontheless. Same story goes for Lhuna and let me quote this part:

Originally Posted by Glirdan
This is probably the oddest post I have read all Day but it doesn't surprise me. The only thing that's odd is her vote for Eomer which was completely baseless. Other than that, nothing truly suspicious about her


Nothing truly suspicious, but still a suspect? He is trying to point us in a direction we shouldn't be looking!
Later on, he claims Rune is a more vocal player and therefore claims him again quilty without a good reason as Rune later on says he isn't really a vocal player at all ( maybe Rune is just too modest about himself ).

I understand your confusion behind this and I take full credit for not explaning myself about it earlier. What I meant was that out of the five who voted Eomer, I found them the least suspicious, yet they were still suspicious looking in my eyes. I realise I'm being contradictive but that's the way I am.

That's all I really had to adress.

Now, on to what I want to say about Saucy. This guy is crafty, intelligent and when needed to be, sneaky. That's why I'm very wary of him. He makes me really nervous anytime I play with him because I never know what to think of him. ToDay, when I found out he was still alived, I was quite surprised. I was sure that the Wolves would have gotten rid of him. But then I thought about it and after going back and seeing Jenny's Gifted hints, I thought that it makes sense the Wolves would want to put off killing him because they might have found a Gifted. However, that still doesn't make me less uneasy about him. If anything, it makes it worse. There's something that does not sit right with me about that Man. I swear, if he's not dead toNight, I will be quite surprised and really suspicious.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot, I see I was somewhat mistaken about your vote of last evening's lack of reasoning. Sorry. That slightly shoots my suspicions of you below the hull, though I might still think you a wolf from a different perspective!

Admiral Sauce's unwillingness to kick the "race" into gear might be interpreted as a desire to avoid committing himself. But it's not enough in and of itself to prod him into my suspicion list particularly.

[Glirdan]

Okay, I have to vote but I don't know whom for. Gah! I think I'm going to go with a gut suspicion and vote

++morm

He's really been worrying me. He's being to bold and there's something that's not sitting right with me about him. Now I must depart. See you on the morrow...if I survive...

[the guy who be short]

Sorrry about the lateness today. I neglected the England match that took place today (Phew!).
Anywho, I would like to officially nominate morm as wolfman.
TGWBS, when innocent tends to demand things like answers and responses but he seems detached and I think so because he's possibly guilty.Morm knows wolf-guy very well. He also knows wolf-guy does not change tactics from ordo-guy. To base guilt on me simply due to a modified playing style is simply mormy*. Caran perhaps knows me less well, so I shall forgive her.

I'd also like to suspect Kathwin. She knows I have Sixth Form, she does, preciousss... Yes she handily overlooks it. Again, she should know that wolf-guy is wonderfully unsuspicious.

SpM... What do you mean ambiguous comments are typical of me? :p

*Synonym for suspicious.

[Anguirel]

Right. So the contenders for lynching proposed so far are

Admiral Saucepan Man
Engels
Firefoot
Durelin
Glirdan
Rune
Holby
morm

Eight candidates and there are sixteen of us. This is somewhat ludicrous and my ire is upon those who have fostered this situation, especially as none of my major suspects seem viable. Of this lot I only suspect Durelin and Rune-neither emphatically. Yet if I struck out and voted for, say, Kath, I would be by my own admission a gross hypocrite.

Tricky.

[the guy who be short]

++Morm.

Tradition and suspicion. Good, eh?

[Caranlondien]

I agree that the number of candidates is rather ridiculous.

++Holbytlass

It might otherwise have been Kath or Gurthang, but I"m not about to introduce a new candidate this close to deadline; It would just be a throw-away vote. :rolleyes: Anyway, I explained my reasons for suspecting her before, and going over the posts of my suspects who are also candidates for lynching, I'm most concerned about her.

1. Diamond-->SpM (SpM 1)
2. Rune-->tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)
3. mormegil-->Firefoot (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Firefoot-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)
5. Taliesin-->Glirdan (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1)
6. Durelin-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1)
7. SpM-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1)
8. Glirdan-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 1)
9. tgwbs-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)
10. Caran-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 2, morm 2)

[mormegil]

Would two wolves be bold enough to go after innocent Morm? I'm not certain but that question may need to be answered.

Lal, in regards to my comment about Firefoot and Gurthang I would explain it better by saying: Yes I do believe that Gurthang and Firefoot believed Jenny to be the hunter and say her vehemence against Formen and that they dropped off her list therefore they weren't likely targets.

Guy I've never seen you this odd before. You seem hyper-sensitive to the light suspicion I cast on you.

Glirdan is a wolf I tell you and if I could change my vote I would!

[Anguirel]

morm old chap, can you consider for a moment that the following is not a stable acid test for a wolf-

Does he accuse morm?

If Yes, wolf. If No, not.

It's admittedly a simple and deliciously elegant equation, but it doesn't always add up...

[mormegil]

morm old chap, can you consider for a moment that the following is not a stable acid test for a wolf-

Does he accuse morm?

If Yes, wolf. If No, not.

It's admittedly a simple and deliciously elegant equation, but it doesn't always add up...

Can you consider for a moment that I am not a naive little dunce? Perhaps I bring things up for a reason. My reasoning may not be the best but their actions did strike me as odd. Why do you defend them? I have considered both rather suspicious prior to this, does that escape your memory? I don't go after people because they accuse me...notice my vote is for somebody who hasn't accused me :rolleyes:

[Holbytlass]

I want to stay till the better end and safe myself again, but that gets old.
Well, Sir Rear Admiral, I haven't the foggiest of who smacks of wolfishness but your theory goes that either myself or Firefoot is a wolf. I know myself to be innocent so I would vote Firefoot except Durelin pops to my mind more often than not.

++Durelin

[Gurthang]

the guy who be short:

post #'s 63, 158, 221, 225, 267, and 269

Really not much to go on. Most of it doesn't make much sense to me. He has been more active toDay, but only slightly. His vote for morm seems to have some basis at least, although I do not like that half that base is tradition. Also, I'm rather confused by him, and his lack of valuable input is a big black mark in my mind.

Holbytlass:

post #'s 46, 69, 73, 79, 84, 128, 172, 177, 180, 211, and 247

First thing I noticed, her thoughts on everyone she puts forth in 69 and 70 are very sketchy and leave much to be desired. A couple of the comments seem back and forth. Not in itself too suspicious, though, as it was Day 1.

Shows a list of suspicion based on bluffs in post 79. Half the list is now proven innocent, and I think the others (including me) to be innocent. I don't like this because she seems to base suspicion on what I would deem banter, which, I guess, first day isn't all that bad since there's not much else to go on.

Ends up voting for Nilp and says Eomer bandwagon is spite. Nilp was on her list, but I really think we'd gotten used to Nilp being suicidal, and the idea that it's a bluff just doesn't jive with me.

In #128, she spends most of the time talking about Jenny seeming suspicious, then doesn't put her on the her suspect list. Seems flip-floppish to me. And then she posts her suspect list in 172, and Jenny is on it.

Post 211 she votes for Lhuna. I wouldn't find this too strange, except that her only reason is self-preservation. Which I don't think too highly off because it seems that a wolf rather than an innocent would be worried about surviving.

Now, she gives a list, based on voting, in post 247. Personally, I love lists from voting, except her list is about vote placement. I think that vote placement is based more on timezones than being a wolf.

Overall, it's a lot of bits and pieces that don't add up to a whole lot. The feeling I'm getting, though, as opposed to Guy, is that she seems to be trying to have a presence without really adding a lot to the discussion. Guy's just not there, but Holbytlass seems there in word, but not in deed, if you get what I mean.


On an unrelated note, I agree with morm about Glirdan. I've not noticed it too much before, but this last statement really caught me as a set-up.

There's something that does not sit right with me about that Man [Saucepan]. I swear, if he's not dead toNight, I will be quite surprised and really suspicious.
I think I'll go through Glirdan's posts real fast before I vote. If I had to vote now, I'd probably go with Holby.

[the guy who be short]

Glirdan is a wolf I tell you and if I could change my vote I would!8. Glirdan-->mormnotice my vote is for somebody who hasn't accused meIt's not meant to cast suspicion on you. Posted merely because it made me laugh. :D

[Lalaith]

Well, I don't suspect either of the front-runners particularly but I see one of my two chief suspects already has a vote.
++RUNE

[Anguirel]

morm, nothing is further from my thoughts than considering you a naive little dunce; your foresight has proved superior to mine on countless occasions. But perhaps you are the giant on whose shoulder I am now standing, and from my perspective it looks like a great orator is frenziedly demanding that a small boy who tied whose shoe laces together be condemned to death, while real murderers lurk and laugh to themselves. Thinks are just always complicated rather than simple.

And a question of my own, echoing Diamond's earlier cry: why are you allowing such uncharacteristic latitude to Kath?

On which note,

I stake mine own integrity
To follow on what I think true
I broaden yet the proud array
Of lynchees old and new.

++KATH

EDIT: Cross-posted with everyone since morm

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, the votes today do seem very interesting, I think that analyzing them tomorrow will probably prove very useful. I just got back from the train statio… er inspecting the ship, and have only had time to read through once. I am feeling less suspicious of Lalaith today, her long post had a lot more detail on her specific feelings then did her past posts. She still appears suspicious to me, but I don’t think I will vote for her today.

[Caranlondien]

Skipping out on watching the World Cup (I mean, uh, watching... the ocean) to check back in. Holby's reaction to being a frontrunner makes me nervous about my vote. She seems to be showing the concern of an ordo, not of a wolf... I should have voted Kath, but I failed to see that Ang suspected her too.

[Holbytlass]

1. Diamond-->SpM (SpM 1)
2. Rune-->tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)
3. mormegil-->Firefoot (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Firefoot-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)
5. Taliesin-->Glirdan (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1)
6. Durelin-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1)
7. SpM-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1)
8. Glirdan-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 1)
9. tgwbs-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)
10. Caran-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 2, morm 2)
11. Holby-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 2, morm 2)
12. Lalaith-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 2, morm 2)
13.Anguirel-->Kath (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 2, morm 2, kath 1)

[Diamond18]

I'm back! I didn't think I would be, but I woke up early. Ish.

Anyway, I just wanted to note that I find it interesting that SpM and Morm are the only ones who did not seem to be willing to take my post at face value. I went from Innocent on Morm's list to possibly guilty after I made that post. SpM doesn't swerve from suspecting me. This might not necessarily mean anything, but one of my goals when I made that post was to set a little Wolf Bait. I figured the people most likely to want to see it as guilty would be wolves sniffing out an easy target. I said that I wouldn't be around much, which means I wouldn't be able to defend myself much or make the village as a whole think of me as helpful (and therefore want to save me if I get into troube). So, I'd be easy to bandwaggon against.

When innocent, I have seen SpM strongly caution against suspecting people for odd behavior, pointing out that the wolves are often them that feel most fair. Yet, in this game, I haven't seen that and I have seen him "suspecting" for odd behavior.


morm old chap, can you consider for a moment that the following is not a stable acid test for a wolf-

Does he accuse morm?

If Yes, wolf. If No, not.

It's admittedly a simple and deliciously elegant equation, but it doesn't always add up...

I suppose this caution could apply to me as well... but, I did write my earlier post with a conscious idea to make it a "oh wolves, you know you want to scapegoat me" sort of post and so I came back looking for takers. Disregard if you find this test to be overly faulty.

[Anguirel]

Gramercy Holby. Three more votes to cast and everything to be decided. In the name of Jesu Christ and his servant the King of Scots, I pray that justice may yet be done this day...

[Gurthang]

Well, I've read through Glirdan's post, which leaves me very little time to decide.

What I found is not much suspicious. His analysis' seemed rational to me, and I actually agreed with quite a few of his points. Some did seem weird, though, for instance pointing at Diamond for being the first to post. I also really don't like that last sentence about Saucepan Man. I don't know why, or even how exactly it would work, but it seems way too much like he's setting up for something. And, yes, I do think Glirdan would be that obvious.

And now Holby's looking a little better. Her lack of care for her own safety puts her in a better light, but that could just be in response to my suspicions of her for that reason.

Oh! I'm gonna wait just a little longer before voting. It will be for either Holby, Guy, or Glirdan, but I just don't know which.

[Diamond18]

I know, but that's how Saucie always is. Everyone tends to trust him, and a few people just want to get rid of him because he's scary because people want to trust him. But I'm not thinking of lynching him right now. Why? Because of the Jenny thing. Why would he have brought the Hunter thing up if he (as a wolf) was planning to get her that night? He would've left it unspoken, I imagine, unless he was being bold. Possible. But right now, I doubt it.

Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."

[Kath]

Oh no, 4 minutes left and I come back to this tie, and I think none of those up for lynching particularly guilty looking.

Durelin, morm, Holby, Rune.

Holby I can't vote for. To me she has been playing her usual style, and as she's almost always innocent that bodes well.

The other three I just don't know.

[mormegil]

Okay, I may die and I humbly request that all innocents look at the following very closely

Firefoot
Gurthang
Rune
TGWBS
among others

Don't forget about SpM. I think he's innocent but if alive too long don't give him the benefit of the doubt. Scrutinize everything.

Anguriel seems innocent enough to me now.

[Kath]

Argh!

++ MORM

He's the only one I had any suspicion over all day. It seems I have to break this tie, and I have to have some reasoning.

[Gurthang]

I almost want to wait longer; Cailin said she might be late, but I don't want to take the chance.

++Holbytlass

We need to break this tie, and Holby is the only one who I suspect that is among the those who are tied. May you be a wolf.

[Holbytlass]

it seems that a wolf rather than an innocent would be worried about surviving.

My dears, you have forgotten the seer would want to do that!!
The most dangerous place is in the lockjaws of The SaucepanMan. Friend or foe you have finally beaten me down.

Me, Taliesin, Findeasea and Caranlodien are innocent!

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, I really don’t think that Durelin or Morm is guilty. I have played with both of them before and their actions in this game have been consistant as far as I can tell. I have never played with Holby before so I am not sure how she would act, but I am not really suspicious of her either. Since I have not had time to go over all of the posts today, I am basing my vote off of impressions that I had of people on Day 2.

++Rune

For reasoning behind this vote please look at post #166. This is the best I can do for now.

[the guy who be short]

Foolish, Holbytlass! You would have survived this day - morm got more votes first.

But it is done. Thank you none the less.

[Cailín]

It is over.

Please stop talking.

[the guy who be short]

Just for the record, I am in favour of a novus republic, headed by the three innocent lasses. Best get that in the open right now.

One could still be a lover, but the other two will outnumber her. It is a risk I am willing to take.

And, frankly, I don't care what the rest of you think. I know it's a good idea. :p

[Cailín]

The shock of losing two allies instead of one the previous Night weighed heavily on the ship.

"Everything must justify its existence before the judgment seat of Reason, or give up existence”, stated Friedrich Engels.

"*hic*," said Glirdan, puzzled.

"It is my brilliant theory of the Day." Engels drew himself up proudly.

"Who are you, anyway?" inquired Gurthang. "Don't think I noticed you aboard before."

"Reason?" asked Lalaith in a huff. "Empiricism is the only true way, my friends."

"Huh?" said Rune.

"I am feeling pretty suicidal…" commented Weslamond. "Aye, but I fear Sir Horatio should leave the ship first."

"You are all wrong," said Mormegil. "I know exactly who the wolves are and you'd best listen to me or else everything will be wrong, wrong, wrong."

"Well?" asked Durelin.

"It is Firefoot, obviously," said Mormegil.

"Ha!" said Firefoot. "My dog thinks you, sir, are actually a pirate."

"Portugal - Holland was the worst match ever!" stated Sir Horatio suddenly.

All passengers looked up in surprise and started eyeing Sir Horatio suspiciously.

"Wha…?" asked Kath.

"Apologies," stumbled Sir Horatio. "No idea what made me say that. The lengthy exposure to the sun and wind must have made me slightly delusional."

"You see!" said Taliesin triumphantly. "Never trust a rear-admiral with a roaring voice and a silly name."

"Wrong again," said Mormegil. "Sir Horatio Potboiler is no wolf, oh no. Though I may be wrong."

In the end, the passengers decided that they could not bear hearing Mormegil correct them one more time and decided that such insistent pessimism could only stem from a decidedly wolvish nature. With collective effort, to the obvious satisfaction of Friedrich Engels, the passengers hoisted the man up the plank.

"There is obviously a fault in the construction of this ship," continued Mormegil his nit-picking as he stood there. "You see, this plank is completely rotten. If I'd put my foot here, like this…"

He demonstrated, shifting all his weight to his left foot. With a reluctant squeak, the plank cracked and Mormegil lost his balance and tumbled into the ocean.

"You see," he said, struggling to keep his head above the water. "It will break."

"Oh, be silent already," said Caranlondien, quite annoyed.

"Just wait," yelled Mormegil to the passengers still observing him from the deck.

And it happened. With a final snap, the plank broke straight through the middle. Half of the now ex-plank came falling down and hit the troubled Mormegil right on the head. He died instantly, but with a smug smile gracing his face. A human face. Mormegil had been another Ordinary Passenger.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

Cheese? I need cheese!

Signed,

Rune, Son of Bjarne



~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Holbytlass -- whale hunter
Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Diamond18 -- Weslamond, the Dread Pirate Roberta's protégé
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Rune Son of Bjarne -- crazy slave, with an obsession for cheese
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Night 4 has now started. I need a name from the Wolves and one from the Seer. Nogrod has happily returned so he shall expect PMs as well. Sleep tight. Sorry for the delay re: yesterday's narration. It will be up tomorrow.

[Cailín]

After all her fellow passengers had fallen asleep, Holbytlass walked up to the railing and stared into the invisible waves. She'd not be able to sleep tonight, despite her growing weariness and the fact that it was the darkest night she'd ever seen. It was no night to see anything.

She did hear something.

In the vague distance, a lonely cry sounded, melodious and sweet. Could it be a whale? Holbytlass shook her head. She was always imagining things. Though some things were not quite so imagined as others. With a sigh of foreboding, she whispered a name in the dark. Then she waited.

The moon rose over a pair less likely to hear a lonely sound. Unaware that someone was still up and watching, they danced to their own, private tune. There was something comforting about knowing that - no matter how the tides would turn - they would always come out as winners. Isn't love said to conquer all?

As the footsteps got louder and more confident, Holbytlass woke up from her reverie, forgetting the name she had whispered to the unknown. Slowly, she walked in the direction of the sound, hoping to solve the mystery before the wolves came to settle the score. In the fickle light of the moon, she saw flashes of a pair dancing between the sleeping bodies of the other passengers, careless in their movements, apparently only avoiding a misstep by chance, luck even. She chased them over the ship, her human, worldly steps sharply contrasting with the casual grace of the couple. She thought she heard a boy laughing, or was it a woman? The rhythm increased as the wolf and the lover were now swirling to a distant chorus of violins, almost painful to the ears in its perfection. Holbytlass started to run, forgetting about undercover, desperate to catch them in the act.

They seemed to retreat in the now deserted Captain's cabin. Holbytlass followed them, determined.

As she entered, she found the cabin empty. Disappointed and tense, she sighed once more. She turned around, shaking, and found herself face to face with the four wolves who had haunted her dreams.

"We know you now," snarled the largest.

With a vengeful howl, the wolves fell upon Holbytlass, taking the light out of her eyes forever.

At dawn, it was Firefoot who found Holbytlass. She was lying spread-eagled on the Captain's bed, her empty sockets staring into the distance. The names on her lips would never be uttered.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

A Night filled with promise. The Seer is dead. We live.

Signed,

The Lovers




~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Diamond18 -- Weslamond, the Dread Pirate Roberta's protégé
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Rune Son of Bjarne -- crazy slave, with an obsession for cheese
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)

Day 4 has now started. Passengers, you may start discussing. Good luck.

[Anguirel]

Well, buckoes, same drill as yesterday, really. Death not unexpected, but votes from yesterday extremely interesting. Analyse them, why don't you, and I'll help in the morning when I'm more coherent. Also I need one of those nice Firefoot TM voting order bulletins to really set to work.

We have a lot of information to work with. In my view, morm's lynching was idiocy. But...later. Hope to return to see lots of clear reasoning and theories to bounce off.

[Taliesin]

Holby, thanks for the helpful info, I'm sorry to see you go but it was expected ofcourse.

I really didn't see any reason why Mormegil was lynched, I must've missed something, someone care to enlighten me on this subject?

The ones who voted for Holby:

Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Caranlondien ( known innocent )

I suggest we take a good look at Gurthang aswell. And Holby insisted we lynch Saucepan Man, or did she merely hint he's not to be trusted, I'm not sure how to interpret that message.

That's makes my suspect list

Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Glirdan

[Firefoot]

Our village seems to be suffering from Gifted mistakes... :rolleyes:

With half the original village proven innocent in one way or another (of course, Findeasea, Caran, and Taliesin could theoretically be the villager Lover - in which case, the wolves will probably get him/her sometime in the next couple nights), maybe we should finally be able to get somewhere.

Per Ang's request:

Sauce – 1 (Diamond 1)
TGWBS – 1 (Rune 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Morm 3)
Durelin – 2 (Firefoot 4, Holby 11)
Glirdan – 1 (Taliesin 5)
Rune – 3 (Durelin 6, Lalaith 12, Findeasea 16)
Holby – 3 (Sauce 7, Caran 10, Gurthang 15)
Morm – 3 (Glirdan 8, TGWBS 9, Kath 14)
Kath – 1 (Ang 13)

I'm sort of coming to the conclusion that we might not have very bold wolves; there just aren't many opportunities for wolf-on-wolf votes. The only possibilities are:

Day 1:
Glirdan (4th voter) for Kath
Gurthang (18th voter) for Diamond

Day 2:
Firefoot (15th voter) for Lalaith

Day 3:
Diamond (1st voter) for Sauce
Rune (2nd voter) for TGWBS
Firefoot (4th voter) for Durelin
Durelin (6th voter) for Rune
Lalaith (12th voter) for Rune
Ang (13th voter) for Kath

Comments:
Day 1:
Either of these I could see as theoretically possible. Although Glirdan's vote would have been rather bold, Kath was not gathering much support for voting that Day, as I recall, and Nilp and Eomer both were. Gurthang's vote for Diamond certainly could be, but it's almost too obvious. It doesn't seem like a good place for a wolf-on-wolf vote - 18th position, and for someone who doesn't have any votes yet.

Day 2:
Well, I know I'm innocent, but you all don't... I'll let you decide how wolvish my vote is. This seems like a rather weird strategy to play by, though, to me anyway. *shrugs*

Day 3:
Diamond, Rune, myself, and Durelin were all the first to vote for the people of their choice, and no one had received a second vote. This would be risky in any of their cases, but it's quite possible at that point that they had decided that it was worth a little risk, that their numbers looked well enough that a possible bit of sacrifice would be worth it. Lalaith created a four way tie when she voted for Rune so that he, Morm, Holby, and Durelin all had two votes - I would say that this is a fair possibility for a wolf-on-wolf vote, if again slightly risky. But again, they may have thought it would be worth it, even if he did get lynched. Ang's vote for Kath may be one of the most wolvish looking votes here. Four other people had two votes, this only made one for Kath, but so many people already had votes that this wouldn't be particularly suspicious. I'd say it's a possibility.

Of course, it's possible that none of these are the case. Voting has been so spread out that the wolves might not have felt it necessary to vote for their own. And maybe to decide, we need to look outside the individual votes...

[Firefoot]

Sorry for the double-post, but something else worthy of mention:

Wolves practically always vote. I think I remember one instance in which a wolf had to be killed for some reason (lack of posting, RL issues), but otherwise, people who don't vote are almost invariably innocent. That would make the Glirdan/Kath, Gurthang/Diamond, Diamond/Sauce, Rune/TGWBS, and Ang/Kath pairs all less likely - incidentally removing half the chances for wolf-on-wolf votes. This definitely is not guaranteed, but likely, especially for the Kath pairs, since she was around, even if rather uninformed. I think a wolf would have voted. TGWBS, also, I think would try a little harder if he were a wolf. I don't remember what happened with Diamond.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, we have three known innocents, or at least, known not-wolves. One of us could be the lover, but if we focus on getting the wolves, we'll take out the lover anyway, and even if one of us is the lover, the opinions of the other two innocents would counterbalance their influence (I hope).

So, the unknowns are:

Durelin
Kath
Lalaith
Diamond18
Firefoot
Gurthang
Rune Son of Bjarne
Saucepan Man
Anguirel
Glirdan
the guy who be short

I'm inclined to trust Durelin and Diamond. SpM, too, I suppose, but with our seer gone, the only way we can find out about him is lynching, because otherwise we (or at least I) will have no idea.

I still feel most uneasy about Kath and Gurthang.

EDIT: cross-posted with Firefoot, who makes a good point about Kath

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So Hoblytlass was the Seer, that really suprised me.

The people she named as inoccents was, not any of those I suspected so that does not really do a lot for me. (of course it helps knowing some inocents, but you know what I mean)

I need to do alot of thinking about my suspects before I can post anything of use, but I hope to do so before I go to bed. (withinn the next 4 hours).

I would just like to thank Firefoot for making those vote overview, they are really nice to have.

[Lalaith]

I'd prepared a nice voting tally too, but Firefoot does them so much better - and quicker. But one thing that I noted - the cross-posting at the end.

Kath's vote for Morm, and Gurthang 's for Holbytlass, was actually a cross-post at 9.59pm, so either of them might have thought they were casting the "killer vote." The same goes for Fin, who came in at 10pm with a vote for Rune - all three of those last-minute voters may have thought they were bringing their candidate up above the tie-breaker. Fin is of course a proven innocent (although she might, like the rest of the innocents, be a Lover. However, I agree with Firefoot that we needn't worry overmuch about this as the wolves will unfortunately be working their way through the innocents in the nights. )
Anyway I said yesterDay I thought Morm was onto something with Jenny's Hunter list and I still think so. I'm going to ponder on it and get back to you all in the morning.

[Lalaith]

Oh, and Firefoot, on non-voting wolves, I remember my very first WW game, IV - I don't think a single wolf voted on the first day.

[Firefoot]

Oh, and Firefoot, on non-voting wolves, I remember my very first WW game, IV - I don't think a single wolf voted on the first day. Wow, I'd forgotten how... different... it used to be. I'd say for the most part, though, the point still stands.

[Gurthang]

Well, that was not good. If I had voted a few seconds earlier, I would have saved morm, only to lynch our Seer! Not good options. I was not happy when I crossed with Kath and knew that morm was gone. I had become fairly convinced of his innocence. I only wish Holby could have seen that before she had posted.

And Holby insisted we lynch Saucepan Man, or did she merely hint he's not to be trusted, I'm not sure how to interpret that message.
I think she just said she was unsure about him. And truthfully, I'm inclined to think him innocent. Which is good, because I think he's going to be around for a few more Days. With a decent number of known innocents, the wolves are probably going to kill them at Night. So Saucepan will survive whether he's innocent or not. I think he is, especially since he was going after Holby. I think a wolvish Saucey would have just killed her at Night rather than try to get her lynched.

I was going to look at Guy and Glirdan again, but now I'm unsure about everything. I might go back and see who I was suspicious of earlier. Maybe I'll do better trusting my gut rather than my brain. At least now I know who not to lynch. :rolleyes:

[Firefoot]

I think he is, especially since he was going after Holby. I think a wolvish Saucey would have just killed her at Night rather than try to get her lynched. Why would Sauce-wolf - or any wolf - want to lynch Holby during the night? She had been attracting plenty of suspicion during the Days, and not being overly helpful to the villagers (unlike, for example, Eomer, who really was just too daunting for them to leave alive). Although I do agree with the sentiment that Sauce is probably innocent. (Scary thought: he's the innocent lover and knows no more about the wolves than most of us do... I wonder how much the wolf lover has told the innocent lover. Hm...)

[Gurthang]

Why would Sauce-wolf - or any wolf - want to lynch Holby during the night? She had been attracting plenty of suspicion during the Days...
True. I was saying that if he thought she was the Seer, then he would have killed her on Night 3, not tried to lynch her Day 3. Although, if he was innocent and thought she was the Seer he wouldn't have tried to get her lynched at all. So I guess he probably didn't think she was Seer at all. So pretty much what I just said (in my last post) doesn't even make sense. :rolleyes:

Although, I feel like he's innocent, but I really have no reasoning behind it. Well, as bad as my reasoning has been so far, that's probably a good thing.

[Diamond18]

Am I the only one who thinks Saucey looks very Wolfish??? So Wolfish that I will scream if someone else is lynched toDay. Before Holby's reveal I was merely suspicious but now I'm in the mood for a Valier style campaign. (Yes, I know I don't have Valier style instincts, but that's not going to stop me, ha!)

There's a lot of this going around: "Saucepan is dangerous as a wolf yes, but if he's innocent he's too great an assest to the village to lynch."

Balderdash! The dangers of Wolfman Sauce (Or Saucepan Goose!) far outweigh the merits of Innocent Sauce and the above argument for keeping him around is case in point. Yes, we won't be able to wait to see if the Wolves will kill him at night -- they've got their next 3 night kills pretty well taken care of, now that all the Gifteds are gone. If we wait 3 whole days to lynch Wolfman Sauce, well, we may never get the chance.

I don't mean to say that Sauce isn't a good player when innocent. But face it, Villagers have won games without him before so saying he shouldn't be lynched just 'cause of that isn't much of an argument.

Okay. So, not that I'm in full dudgeon I'm going to go off and do a Saucepan Man analysis. Considering this, it may be a long time before I resurface. But, happily, I've got nothing to do and nowhere to go-oh-oh (I wanna be sedated!) so, I can....


I don't remember what happened with Diamond.

That's because I never said why I didn't vote. :)

I overslept. But I have an excuse -- I'd been awake for nearly 48 hours prior to actually sleeping that night. When I finally got up the next morning I had to go to work, and worked until after the deadline. Yeah, yeah, I know. My ability to schedule my life is pretty much bat guano. :rolleyes:

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Am I the only one who thinks Saucey looks very Wolfish???

Quite possible. I for one has not seen much that could make one of my suspects.

Balderdash! The dangers of Wolfman Sauce (Or Saucepan Goose!) far outweigh the merits of Innocent Sauce and the above argument for keeping him around is case in point.

If I was doubting wether he was innocent or not I would agree with you, but normaly I don't kill people because they will be dangoures as wolves. At least not on that reason alone.

I'm going to go off and do a Saucepan Man analysis.

With all the other beeing said, I want to add that I of course would conisder voting SPM. But it will take some pretty convinsing arguments. . .

[Durelin]

Odd.

Well, I'm guessing Holby didn't dream of any wolves. She didn't seem to go after anyone in particular.

Hey...now we don't have to worry about lynching any Gifteds... :rolleyes:

[Durelin]

(Scary thought: he's the innocent lover and knows no more about the wolves than most of us do... I wonder how much the wolf lover has told the innocent lover. Hm...)

Just goes to show you how important communication is in any relationship... :p

[Caranlondien]

Holby didn't dream of any wolves. She told us who she dreamt of, and they were all innocent.

I'm interested by Diamond's suspicions of SpM, especially since I think she (Diamond) is probably innocent. If you have a compelling case, Di, please put your thoughts out there.

[Durelin]

Holby didn't dream of any wolves. She told us who she dreamt of, and they were all innocent.

*smacks herself many times*

Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet..... :p

[Caranlondien]

*smacks herself many times*
Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet.....
:D Don't worry about it - if anything, it just solidifies my inclination to trust you.

I'm going to go off and do a Saucepan Man analysis.
Ah, didn't see this before. Looking forward to it.

I'll be looking over Kath's posts.

[Glirdan]

Why did I have a feeling that Holby was innocent? I didn't think she was the Seer, but I certainly didn't think she was a Wolf either. Gah! And why did she leave that bit about Saucy in her revelation post? She couldn't have dreamed of him. So why did she put it there? Is it her suspicion?

Am I the only one who thinks Saucey looks very Wolfish??? So Wolfish that I will scream if someone else is lynched toDay. Before Holby's reveal I was merely suspicious but now I'm in the mood for a Valier style campaign. (Yes, I know I don't have Valier style instincts, but that's not going to stop me, ha!)

You most certainly are not the only one. I've had gut feelings about that Man since Day 1 but nothing solid to go on. Gah! Now I'm torn in two: to vote for him or not to vote for him? I would vote for him because he's dangerous as a Wolf...to dangerous... But I don't want to vote for him because he's a valuable asset to this village if innocent. Gah! But Diamond brings up a good point:

I don't mean to say that Sauce isn't a good player when innocent. But face it, Villagers have won games without him before so saying he shouldn't be lynched just 'cause of that isn't much of an argument.

Diamond, please resurface soon with that analysis. I don't really have the patience (or the brain capacity at this point [my brain is on major meltdown mode especially since school is officially over for me!! YAY!! :D ]) to do so myself. :rolleyes:

Gah! I'm going off to clear my head...

[Gurthang]

If I was doubting wether he was innocent or not I would agree with you, but normaly I don't kill people because they will be dangoures as wolves. At least not on that reason alone.
Then why did you vote for Eomer on Day 1? Before he had even posted? Maybe I'm being a little nit-picky here, but that makes you seem very suspicious to me.

Right now, my suspects include Guy, Glirdan, and now Rune. I'll say my secondary list would be Lalaith and Diamond, since I thought them worth mentioning as suspicious earlier in the game. I don't know how I'll vote, but it will most likely depend on what happens toDay. I don't think I'll have time to look back through very much of what's been said.

I also am intersted in seeing what Diamond says about Saucepan.

[Diamond18]

Wolfman Sauce

Day 1

#21 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475936&postcount=21)

Wolfy's (okay, okay) Saucey's first post is pure in character flamboyance. The only really interesting thing to note is his consistent reference to WWJ VIII (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=12759) in the form of his honking Goose which oh so jokingly insists that Potboiler is shady. Maybe it's just my paranoia, but it smacks somehow of a bold dareisay "saucey" wolf having rather a good time waving the obvious at us all in the name of roleplaying. I mean, he's played a few games in between this one and WWJ VIII so why refer back to it now?

This alone however means nothing in and of itself, it's just a feeling, so onwards....

#23 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475939&postcount=23)

Still in character, not much to note in and of itself. However -- he is responding to Kath's suggestion to off Eomer, a proposition which he will later spend a lot of time opposing seriously (even after Eomer's death at the paws of the wolves -- note the important aspect of vindication).

#24 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475942&postcount=24)

In character attack on pirates (Jenny and me) and another subliminal message from the Goose. Not much to say.

#28 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475965&postcount=28)

His player-by-player analysis is pretty much all joking, and yet he somehow manages to come up with a lynch list from it. Lynch lists are serious business and is in stark contrast to the seemingly pure banter preceding. His reasoning is, of course, pretty much all role related, but the list conveniently includes 3 proven innocents (I of course count 4 to include myself) 2 of which were Gifteds. He explicitly states that even if Jenny, Taliesen and I are innocent we'll be no great loss.

I dislike this post because it seems to contain, to me, a lot of serious malice hidden behind the innocuous joking.

#30 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475969&postcount=30)

:rolleyes:

#48 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476036&postcount=48)

Explicitly states that a wolf would want to prolong the banter whilst calling for an end to the banter. "Look at me, I'm so not Wolfish!"

Also, defends Eomer. Strongly defending someone whose identity you don't know is... interesting. The only people who knew Eomer was innocent were the wolves and so I find a wolf to be in excellent position to defend Eomer and look good for it after Eomer died.

#49 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476039&postcount=49)

Not much to mention about this one, though I do find it odd that all is right with the world when Nilp self votes, but when Form acts Vintage Form, it was one of the bothersome things. (See #48)

#55 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476045&postcount=55)

Mmm... nothing much to note. The discussion of Lovers, spurning Google (how lazy, :p) is neither innocent nor guilty. I wonder though why he wants to trust Ang?

#66 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476093&postcount=66)

Rejects Jenny's suggestion that the Goose is a Fea-style bluff. (I remain suspicious.)

#67 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476099&postcount=67)


Hmm. If I were a Wolf on Day 1, I would do my best to lie low, blend in, act normally and avoid attracting undue attention. Perhaps throw out a few theories or ideas, but nothing that might lead back to my pack-fellows or later serve as a hostage to fortune.

Make note, this is very conveniently not how he's acting. He's being very bold (flood-posting, really) and making efforts not to blend in. Then he comes around and tells us how un-wolfish his behavior so far has been.

Okay, to his credit, though, he does make note that:


It’s always the least likely ones as turns out to be Wolves in my experience.

Which is a common SaucePhrase that I thought was missing. However, it doesn't go all the way to settle my wrong feeling based on the first quote.

The other interesting thing to note is the second lynch list is a bit different than the first, with only Taliesin making it onto both lists.

#81 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476144&postcount=81)

His reason for voting Holby seems a mix of her behaving how he thinks a wolf would, and the in character banter about her being a whale hunter. I suppose a proper analysis of this vote would requite an analysis of Holby's behavior that day, to see how it actually compares to the way he portrayed it. Augh.

Day 2

#118 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476426&postcount=118)

This is the post with all the told you so'ing about Eomer. Compared to Jenny's I told you so'ing it seems more calculated to me. Like he had rehearsed all along how he was going to use Eomer's death to cast suspicion on the Eomer voters. (2 of which are now proven innocent, and I am able to count myself as a 3rd for my own personal ruminations).


As for the Eomer voters, well I will be keeping an eye on all of them. Although, again, I doubt that more than one, or two at most, voted for him.

This seems fishy to me. It's a good way to raise suspicion in other people's minds without seeming too committed to attacking on your own part. That way, when they all start popping up innocent, you can say you never said they were guilty, just suspicious. It's perhaps this doing a lot of talking about Eomer but not actually pushing his own personal votes towards it that disturbs me in the sense it seems like trying to control the lynchings without actually seeming to be controlling. And it seems to be working, 'cause many are very vocal about their trust for him.

#121 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476431&postcount=121)

Well this is just... silly. Even if he didn't think we should have been discussing Eomer, it's a big fat no duh that we would have. The events of Day 1 sort of pitted those who think Eomer is too dangerous to leave alive and those who... don't. Just because Saucey is on the "don't" side doesn't mean there wasn't going to be any debate nor anymore Eomer votes cast had Eomer lived. With this statement Mr. PanMan is being overly controlling of the village (thought police!) and living in a utopian world where everyone posts the way he thinks they ought. Which compounds the feeling that Eomer's death was to create a forum for waving about how right he was about Scottish Innocence.

#125 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476437&postcount=125)

Does allow for the possibility of Eomer's death being a frame up of Eomer "grudge voters" (though, if you ask me, what a silly idea for a frame up. Wolves don't kill for grudges, they kill Gifteds). He brings up and interesting point about Gurthang, which I find interesting enough to merit looking into, but, later.

#157 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476536&postcount=157)

Continues ruminating about Eomer's death and the wolves' motivation, which seems to be a rather disturbing obsession with him. Other things to note in this really long post is that he continues to pester Holbytlass, suspects Gurthang of wolf-on-wolf voting (which I know not to be the case) and find Glirdan to be off the mark but innocent. Interestingly, in the end suspicion summary, he mentions me, Firefoot, and Durelin without having really given any reasoning as to why we are also wolfish in his view in addition to Holby, Glirdan, and morm. (Morm was a top suspect due to his case against Ang.)

#169 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476587&postcount=169)


You know, I too am rather concerned about Jenny. As I mentioned earlier, and as others have commented since, her (seemingly rather frantic) attempt to save both Nilp and Eomer, followed by the deaths of both and thereby the proof of their innocence, may well have been calculated to make her look good.

Frankly, maybe it's the hindsight speaking, but Jenny's behavior re: Eomer's innocence seems more genuine than SpM constant harpage upon the subject. And pointing this out without mentioning that he too has been in the I told you so position strikes me as the Potboiler calling the Hunter black.

And then of course there's the whole "OOOPS, did I do that?" aspect of shining a bright light on Jenny's pointing out that she might be the Hunter.


Sorry, Jenny, if you are the Hunter and I have blown your cover. But I figured that, if there is anything in it, the Wolves will have picked up on it anyway.

Uh-huh. Because you're a wolf! Why were you "rather concerned" about Jenny if you thought she was the Hunter? Huh? Why did you at first try to paint her as wolfish, then in the very same post blast about that she could possibly be the Hunter?

#171 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476595&postcount=171)

Funnily, in this post he does an about face and implies that Jenny is the innocent Lover. Which, if she were the Hunter as he seemed to think, she could not be.

#174 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476602&postcount=174)


I really don't think that she is the Hunter.

What? What happened to Sorry Jenny if you are the Hunter and I have blown your cover?

#190 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476643&postcount=190)

Votes Holby.

Day 3

#245 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476885&postcount=245)


Diamond: Posted first and, when Glirdan speculated that Wolves often post first, spent a great deal of energy in effectively disproving the point.

Heh, trust me, SpM, this analysis takes far more energy than listing a bunch of easily accessible facts. Funny though what you consider to be a great deal of energy... that list took a minimum of energy. Plus it didn't require me to actually analyze any of the posts for this game, which is what I was having trouble getting into at the time. Lastly, and of course I do realize no one will believe me, I did that list because Glirdan's comment made me curious to see if it was usually true, not just because I myself posted first.


His [Ang] voting record is lousy, although it doesn’t follow from that that he’s a Wolf.

I find it interesting that the last time I remember you you making a point about saying that about someone, you were the Goose trying to save Quath's feathery butt.

I find it interesting that he continues to assert a feeling of Glirdan's innocence, whilst Glirdan is one of the very few to agree with my mistrust for SpM so far toDay. Almost seems like two wolves trying to distance themselves from each other by forming opposing views of each other.

Alright, I'm starting to feel exhausted, and the post just keeps going on and on.... Plus I'm getting the sinking feeling that to adequately judge these summarizations of people's actions I'll have to do in depth analysis of each and every one of them as well. Which I can't do because I could spend the entire night into next afternoon and never get it done. Curse your loquacity, SpM! Argh!

#263 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476956&postcount=263)

Votes again for Holby, and has not been heard from since to react to his main suspect turning out to be the Seer.

--

Well, that's it for Saucey. So this will be it for me:

+ + The Saucepan Man

[Caranlondien]

Day One

#16: In-character

#95: Says she won't vote toDay because it's close to deadline and she doesn't know what's been going on, soher vote would be random.

Day Two

#163: Surprised by Eomer's death, thinks wolves must have thought him to be the Seer. Thinks Jenny's I-told-you-so post is suspicious:
She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.
This worries me. I understand that you were making the point that you thought she was guilty, but why even bring up the possibility of her being gifted? On the other hand, you completely missed the (correct) other option that she was the Hunter.

#182: Agrees with Holby's points on Jenny. Considers the possibility of the morm-Ang thing being a wolf-on-wolf attack, throwing an innocent Glirdan into the mix. Wonders if Lhuna's claim that Firefoot is the wolf-lover is true, and if so, if Lhuna is the Seer.

#187: Wonders if the Seer sees the wolf-lover as just a wolf.

#191: Votes Jenny, saying she's been suspicious of her and doesn't think she's the Seer.

Day Three

#242: Analysis of Jenny's posts, just in case she was killed because they thought her the Seer. Agrees with suspicion around tgwbs

#243: Analysis of tgwbs; points out his relative quietness

#286: Comes back with a few minutes 'til deadline to find a tie. Doesn't want to vote Holby

#288: Votes morm

I'm less suspicious of Kath now than I was when I started doing the analysis. Something about her posts, particularly those about her suspicions of Jenny, seems genuine.

[Anguirel]

Alright. Thanks for that vote summary Firefoot; I'm now going to have a look at it.

Sauce – 1 (Diamond 1)
TGWBS – 1 (Rune 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Morm 3)
Durelin – 2 (Firefoot 4, Holby 11)
Glirdan – 1 (Taliesin 5)
Rune – 3 (Durelin 6, Lalaith 12, Findeasea 16)
Holby – 3 (Sauce 7, Caran 10, Gurthang 15)
Morm – 3 (Glirdan 8, TGWBS 9, Kath 14)
Kath – 1 (Ang 13)

Several things I'm looking for here; those responsible for the extremely wide field; votes for proven innocents; possible wolf-on-wolfers, though with the Lovers around I do imagine they're a bit less likely; and the tie-breakers-who were they really trying to save?

Diamond's Sauce-campaign looks like an innocent's forlorn hope. I did briefly wonder though if they might be none other than the Lovers...I mean, especially if you're not Valier, the Valier-method is about the least effective lynch routine in existence. Well, it's a possibility. An unlikely one though. I exonerate Dread Pirate Audrey for now.

Rune's vote for tgwbs apparently channelled sentiments that no one else shared-except, latterly, morm. They could be right, but I tend to agree with Engels that he's only suspicious when not suspicious. This was cast early-a failed attempt to gather a strong bandwagon? Or just a pronounced suspicion?

morm's vote looks similar. But we know it was cast with no treacherous intent.

Durelin's case was potentially stronger than it was. Many had expressed suspicion of her. Firefoot, then, might be accused of jumping on a widespread feeling. Might just as well though have followed a suspicion she shared. Holby's vote here is clearly self-preservation once more, bringing Durelin's bandwagon and hers level.

I think I'll pass over proven innocent votes.

Rune's bandwagon is one of the most interesting, because to me Durelin's first vote looks the most likely to be wolf-for-wolf. Rune and Durelin had collaborated against Holby, narrowly unsuccessfully, the day before. The transmogrification of this bandwagon into a real force was late and unexpected. Lalaith brought it level with the Holby and Durelin and later morm cases and Fin attempted to break the tie. Lalaith either suspected Rune more than the other candidates, conceivably was in cahoots with Durelin. (That is, if Durelin's vote was not wolf-for-wolf.) Durelin is the lynchpin in this mystery and it's Durelin I most want to find out about (Read, hang) of this lot.

Sauce's vote for Holby was the seventh consecutive bandwagon started in a row and was to be shadowed by an eighth. Sauce loudly bemoaned casting his vote in such a way when things were already so spread out. He also cast it-yet again-for a proven innocent. (I can't talk with Nilp's blood on my hands from Day 1, admittedly.) Wolfpan Man wouldn't have guessed Holby was a Seer, but would be hoping to use her as a scapegoat to avoid another wolf under threat. For I am certain there was one. It's the only way the frenetic voting at the end makes sense. Either Durelin or Rune, in my view, must be hairy. Caran voted for Holby, but regretted it. Her vote set a lot of other events in motion, poor maid. Then Gurthang tried to break the tie...in favour of a proven innocent, we know in retrospect. Tut tut.

But just when things seemed unlikely to get any more crass, up popped the morm bandwagon. Inspired by a panicky "get off my back" vote from Glirdan. Spurred on by mischievous Engels. Sealed by that quintessential Wolf, Kath. This vote really consummates my suspicions of her, which were already active enough yesterday to persuade me at last to vote for her. Were she and Gurthang urging separate causes? Or did they have the same aim in mind? Whichever of them are wolves, they succeeded and poor morm swung, leaving only acrimonious suspicions behind.

And then there was mine. I essentially did what Gurthang had done yesterday, and abstained with a political motive. My vote would have been, out of the leading contenders, almost certainly for Durelin and perhaps we would have retired to bed with yells of victory. It was not to be. In my defence, I did not mean to be ineffective. I wanted, and still want, Kath lynched. I cross-posted with a lot of votes which in my arrogance I was still hoping to garner.

So:

Of all this grievous company
'Tis Kath and Durelin I most
Fear and suspect; but second, the
Admiral, with his English roast,
Gurthang, Rune, constitute the rear
With Firefoot lurking somewhere near.

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, I have been looking over people’s posts for a while. Some points have stuck out to me as interesting.

Glirden: I find it interesting that he spent so much effort making a post by post analysis of five of his suspects on day two, Despite the fact that he claims he has done this in the past, it seems odd that he would use such a tactic on day two, when most of his analysis consists of him saying that posts was largely irrelevant or that he was not sure what something meant. I would assume that Glirden would be aware of this fact. It might be an easy way for a wolf to write a whole lot and attempt to sound useful, without risking doing or saying anything that could be harmful to him in the future.

the guy who be short: He has not really done anything to affect the village one way or another, except his recent suggestion that the three proven innocents lead the village. I don’t find this particularly suspicious, as in a similar situation in the recent past, he reacted the same way. Overall, he does not stand out as suspicious to me today. I agree that his quietness is odd, but at least if he is a wolf this means that he is at a disadvantage, as he cannot easily try to sway the opinion of the village without drawing attention to himself and perhaps his friends.

Durelin- She does not seem suspicious to me, she just seems to be acting as she usually does. I have never been in a village with a wolfish Durelin, so if anyone has any insights as to how she, or any other players for that matter, might act, that could be very useful.

I will be back in a bit with more opinions in a while if I haven't mistakenly fallen asleep...

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies one and all for my quietitude, but I am beset by RL issues which continue to prevent me being present as much as I would like. Although, perhaps that is a good thing as my instincts do seem to have been rather off so far.

As regards Holby, well I have a pretty good (or, more accurately, bad) track record of identifying Seers as Wolves. Apologies for my part in forcing her revelation, unnecessary though it was. I doubt that anyone, innocents and Wolves alike suspected that she was the Seer.

Diamond's analysis of me toDay is a classic example of deciding that someone is a Wolf and then searching out the reasoning from their posts to justify that feeling. Some of her points look a little off to me. YesterDay, I thought her a definate Wolf, based on the points I had made earlier in the Day. ToDay, I am not so sure. Her venedetta against me looks a little too bold for a Wolf and comes across, rather, as genuine, albeit misguided. Then again, after yesterDay's events, the Wolves have good reason to be bold and I did think myself a likely lynch candidate toDay, so it would not surprise me if there were a Wolf or two pushing for my death.

Rune's first post of toDay has me a little concerned, as it smacks of Wolfishness without saying very much.

Firefoot is still a suspect, but that may just be because I had convinced myself that either she of Holby was a Wolf. She has come across as sensible and helpful so far toDay.

Lalaith is a tricksy one. Nothing concrete to go on, but I find myself trusting her less and less.

Sorry, not very helpful I know, but I have little time. I shall try to come back later toDay with something more useful but, given RL issues, it may be difficult. I will certainly be back before the end of the Day but I fear that I will have little time for constructive analysis.

[Findëasëa]

Saucepan Man- I do feel like he has been playing a little differently in this village then the others I have been in with him, but not in a strong way at all. It could easily be my perspective, as in the last village he was under a lot of suspicion which started on the first day and so was in a completely different situation. He has not said anything in particular to make me suspicious, his thoughts seem logical to me. Diamond made some interesting points about him in her analysis, so I will try to look back at his posts more closely later.

Diamond18- Hmm I am not sure about her. A lot of her points in the SPM analysis seem to be stretches and a bit strange. I think she does make some valid points about the Jenny situation, but I don’t think that her placing SPM as guilty because of these makes particular sense, “Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."(Diamond 285)” I don’t understand her logic here, what would a wolf have to gain from being seen as the reason a gifted had died? She seems to be a misguided innocent, as someone mentioned earlier, but she could also be using this as a cover for something more malicious.

[Findëasëa]

I will be back later today with more, as I still need to look at Kath, Firefoot, Rune, Gurthang and Anguirel. Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang, but I will need to take a closer look at their posts before saying anything definite, so its probably better if I save them for after I get some sleep.
(Sorry for the double post...)

[Lalaith]

Ok, in an attempt to comply with the wish of a dying man, I’ve looked at the voting records of Morm's suspect list. I think it’s quite interesting.

Firefoot: No consistency in voting time. This strikes me as quite innocent, actually.
Day One Voted Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
Day Two (second last to vote, just before Gurthang) Voted Lalaith (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3
Day Three Voted Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)

Gurthang – always votes just a couple of minutes before deadline. This makes me uneasy, particularly as his voting record is not great: two safe throwaways and then a (for all he knew) decisive move for Holby, rather than go for Morm, his lone vote from the day before…
Day One(second-last to vote, 2 mins before deadline): Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
Day Two (last to vote) Mormegil: (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3, Mormegil 1)
Day Three (second last to vote) Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 3, morm 3, kath 1)

Rune – always among the early voters. RL constraints, maybe, or just likes to play safe?
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
Day Two: Holby (Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
Day Three: tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)

TGWBS – Seemingly casual middle-period voter….but puts someone in lead each time.
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
Day Two: did not vote
Day Three: Morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Then why did you vote for Eomer on Day 1? Before he had even posted? Maybe I'm being a little nit-picky here, but that makes you seem very suspicious to me.
Saucepan.

hahahaha

I knew this would happen, altough I did not think it would come from you Gurthang. By that comment you just secured your self a spot on my list of suspects! Not because you suspect me, a lot of people suspects me and it something would be wrong if no one did that. The thing is that you jump on that random day 1 vote. A vote wich really had nothing todo with who I thought could be dangoures, no my reason was pathetic. I have said this before, but that vote was cast because I was in a hurry and one seemed as good as the other. I did not even think about that Eomer had not said anything yet. For you to jump at something like this is not only very nit-picky, but also wrong, as there in reality is no contradiction in my actions.
Weird and suspicious they may be, but there is no contradicton and for to jump on that seems like a petty wolf atack.

Another person on my list today has to be Anguriel, otherwise I would actually contradict my self. According to my own theory he would be a wolf if Mormegil turned out inoccent and until yesterday I would have cast my vote emidialy as I found out about Mormegil's inoccens. The thing is Mormegil almost cleared Anguriel in his last post. . . This makes me doubt a bit. I will have to give it a bit more thought before I choode who to vote for, but Ang. is one of the main candidates.

[the guy who be short]

Just popping in. A quick appeal to everybody to USE THE THREE INNOCENTS.

Not doing so is pure idiocy. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain by allowing them to draw up a shortlist of, say, four people, and voting from that list.

Girls, please have lists to vote from by the end of the day.

[Firefoot]

Except that they don't have any more knowledge than the rest of us. Granted, we can trust that they won't deliberately lead us astray, but their guesses are as good as any of ours.

Rune, I think your reasoning is rather faulty. I thought Gurthang brought up a valid point.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I said that I did not vote for people only because they would make dangoures wolves. I did not vote Eomer because he would be dangoures wolf. Therefor Gurthang is mistaking! You could critizise my Eomer vote for other things, but not for that particulart thing.

[Lalaith]

Granted, we can trust that they won't deliberately lead us astray, but their guesses are as good as any of ours.


Well, if one of them is a Lover, then there could be some leading astray. Oh and Guy, Taliesin is also a guy...

[Findëasëa]

In fact, if you think about it, we have the least knowledge of everyone in the village(unless Caran or I is the female innocent lover or Talesin is a male innocent lover). All other ordos have one more confirmed identity (themself). I did mention that TGWBS did do this in the recent past, so I am not sure how I feel about it.
X- posted with lalaith

[Anguirel]

Guy, you've twice addressed the Trinity of Innocents as girls. One, Taliesin, is male.

Rune's defence of himself is quite the most extraordinary oratory I've seen for some time. Why did he say what he said if he "knew" someone would find fault in it? Why should criticism from Gurthang be unexpected?

Why is he determined to stick to a restrictive theory (either morm or me being guilty) when its main source morm made a peace offering? I could understand if he produced further evidence, but he does nothing of the kind. Just bizarre, and deeply muddled thinking-especially as I remember him stating a suspicion that morm and I were wolves together earlier.

I believe that one of the candidates on the brink last evening was a wolf. This surreal performance of Rune's has edged him above Durelin in my book.

I am in haste and shall no longer delay a vote. Rune receives it not because he suspects me, but because of the manner in which he suspects me.

++RUNE SON OF BJARNE, CHEESE-EATING SURRENDER WOLF

[Durelin]

I have never been in a village with a wolfish Durelin

No one has...still been keeping up my innocent streak. This time I'm just more useless than ever... :rolleyes: (I'm counting the Cobbler as innocent...it's definitely not being a wolf!)

I feel like I'm missing my security blanket. I read through Diamond's post and I find that I don't agree on so many points. I feel so lost... :p

Rune is still looking wolfish. And apparently more people are finding that to be so. His early votes are interesting.

And TGWBS's voting record has piqued my interested. I've been giving him the benefit of the doubt because he's barely ever here, and that seems to be completely legitimate, but we'll see.

I'm not suspecting Gurthang right now actually because of his late vote for Holby. That's way too bold for a wolf, I'd think. Though, I haven't been thinking in the way of reverse psychology so much the past few Days...

Also, Glirdan's been staying under the radar too much.

Though I'm wondering what you meant by this, Ang:


Death not unexpected.

Which death? Holby's? Oh really?

I agree with you that morm's lynching was idiocy, though.

[Lalaith]

Which death? Holby's? Oh really?


I may be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but if you're querying what I think you're querying, then it is obvious that the wolves would not let an outed Seer live the night...

[Durelin]

I may be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but if you're querying what I think you're querying, then it is obvious that the wolves would not let an outed Seer live the night...

Agh, I messed up again. :o

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself...

Argh... :rolleyes:

Terribly sorry, particularly to Ang.

I should get more sleep...or something...

[Glirdan]

All I have to say is that Diamond's analysis of Saucy has me pretty convinced of two things: a) Saucy is a Wolf and b) Diamond is innocent.

However, there is that slight chance that Diamond and Saucy could be in cahoots and they're trying to do the Wolf-on-Wolf strategy or she and he are the Lovers. But I'm more inclined to think that Diamond is innocent.

There's something about Ang that makes me inclined to trust him. Maybe it's just because of the quaility of his posts. All of it seems rather genuine in my eyes. But I can't dismiss the fact that morm was innocent and that his main suspicion for two Days straight was Ang (and myself). Maybe Ang really is the louder Wolf of the four? Or maybe it's Saucy and him. Both have flown quite under the radar if you ask me. The suspicion's of Saucy haven't really started until toDay. Those against Ang were made mainly by morm and they stopped yesterDay. Gah! I need to go back and look at Ang and see why morm was so suspicious of him...

[Caranlondien]

Unfortunately I can only be around for the next hour or so (a little less than that). And, even more unfortunately, I'm somewhat at a loss for suspects.

Kath hasn't spoken yet toDay, has she? I'm still rather wary of her. I'd like to hear more about Lalaith from Fin, as she's said she's suspicious of her. I'll probably vote for either Kath or Lalaith. Possibly Rune...

[Firefoot]

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself... I'm really starting to doubt that Durelin's a wolf because of things like this... a wolf would remember this stuff. And this seems too strange a bluff to be plausible.

So to create my own personal list for possible voting candidates, I'm taking Durelin off for this thing about Holby, and Kath and TGWBS off for the no-vote thing (Diamond's excuse doesn't take her off the list). (I'm not discounting these people completely, I'm just trying to narrow it down for the time being.) That leaves (in no particular order):

Lal
Rune
SpM
Glirdan
Ang
Gurthang
Diamond

I would say there is an excellent chance that three of these people are guilty (due to possibilities of one of our innocents being the innocent lover and possible error in my own deductions). I do not think it far-fetched that four of these people are guilty. That's about a 1/2 shot - not too shabby. I'd like to have a good look at all these people, actually, but I doubt I will have either the time or the will. I probably will look at Rune, though, and maybe some others.

A thought about the lovers: I doubt they will be doing much accusing of each other/voting for each other simply because of how tenuous their situation is. It's not like wolves where they can kill each other off for the better of the team; if either of them dies, it's all over. I'm not saying they're going to be protecting each other, but hard-core accusing? I doubt it.

[Gurthang]

I'm on my lunch break, so I don't have much time.

Rune's response to my question seems a little over the top. Hit a nerve, did I?

Guy, I don't think that our innocents making a list will really change much. They have no one who needs to be protected, which is the major reason we would need a list. They can make a list if they want, but it will actually make it easier for wolves to hide in the voting.

I'll be back about the usual time. I'm thinking Rune will probably receive my vote now.

[Findëasëa]

Gurthang-
He has done some strange things this game. First there is the bible reference thing. He explains that he was trying to see who would ‘bite.’ He says that the closest thing to what he was looking for was something Lalaith had said. Later he says that the true purpose was to incite discussion. These two purposes do not line up in my mind, although perhaps I might be misunderstanding what he meant. This, at best, is a misunderstanding. At worst it is a sign of a wolfish Gurthang trying to get out of being questioned. Another strange thing in his posts is about Eomer. He first comments that Eomer is dangerous, and should be lynched early rather then later. He then notes that he is against the Eomer bandwagon. He votes Diamond because she was a part of the Eomer bandwagon. The next day he comments that at least the village need not worry anymore about how guilty Eomer is. He seems to be trying to put himself in a good light. I am not sure what, if anything this strangeness means, but I thought it was noteworthy.

Lalaith- I have looked over all of her posts again. Her votes all seem so safe to me, as with everything else she does. I have mentioned that this struck me as suspicious before, and it still does. In my experience, most wolves I have encountered have adopted this or a similar tactic. The lack of anything concrete towards guilt is complicated by the fact that there is nothing solid that suggests innocence. If anything, this just tells us that she is good at what she does, innocent or guilty.

Rune- (because he seems like a good possibility for lynching today I wanted to look at his posts in greater depth)
Day one- all joking around and then Eomer vote.

Day two: Comments on safe issue about strangeness of Nilp’s death/ supports a meaningless suspicion of Form’s. Defends Jenny’s actions, claiming a wolf would probably not do what she did, does not say anything definite. He then comments on a few of the players, nothing too solid is said, and gut feeling is cited more then once. Comments on an idea presented by Taliesin, and brings up a valid point. He then votes for Holby for not acting to her full potential.

Day Three: Says he is not surprised about Jenny, but of her choice of Form. He then defends himself, claiming that Glirden’s memory of his playing style must be flawed, but takes this as a complement. He has no particularly strong suspect. He looks more closely at TGWBS, Glirden, Morm, Ang, Holby and Firefoot. Makes a lot of statements like: (S)He could be an ordo because of this ___, but could also be the behavior of a wolf if looked at like this __. Votes TGWBS.

Day four: Notes surprising that Holby was seer, claims to need to think a lot about suspects. He did not suspect any of the innocents who were revealed. Comments on a few of Diamond’s statements. Leaves the door open for possible SPM vote. Defends his Eomer vote from Gurthang, then suspects Ang because he wants to be consistent.

His posts do suggest that he was trying to play it safe. He makes a lot of comments that could go either way if he needed them to. A lot of the issues that he chooses to comment on involve an already dead innocent, things that could not get him in trouble or things that make him look good. Overall his behavior seems pretty suspicious to me.

[Caranlondien]

++Lalaith

Good luck, village, I've got to go.

[Firefoot]

After reviewing Rune's posts, I find my response to be remarkably similar to Findeasea's. His accusations and votes tend to be fairly 'safe,' and are generally held opinions. He alternates between these safe suspicions and a couple of weird, "any-way-this-could-be-contrived-as-guilty" accusations (e.g. his current suspicion of Gurthang). I'm finding him more and more suspicious and right now it looks like he may receive my vote.

[Durelin]

I see Rune's a likely candidate. One vote for him already, and everyone's talking about him.

Well, here's another one.

++Rune

For once, consistency. ;)

[Glirdan]

Ang Analysis

Day 1

Post #10 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475892&postcount=10) - In character stuff. Suspicion of Di for scheming against Eomer.

Post #36 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=475989&postcount=36) - Doesn't agree with Formendacil and he "feels shades of Nilp in a ballad told some time ago of murderous ducks." Agrees with Saucy that we should out the pirates. Doesn't want to hang the slave driver.

I realise that a lot of this post was in character banter, but the bit about hanging the pirates doesn't sit to well with me. Especially since we now know that Jenny was the Hunter.

Post #43 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476027&postcount=43) - Says we should wait for Eomer to defend himself before condemning him to death.

Nothing odd here. I agree that the Eomer voters should have given him a chance to defend himself.

Post #51 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476041&postcount=51) - Quite perplexed that Jenny accuses people of "nonsense-spouting" yet believes Goosy Gander. Finds morm's vote for Glirdan quite odd. Thought that he thought it would gather support as Glirdan is a solid lynching candidate. Suspects morm, Jenny and Rune and is inclined to trust Saucy.

Again, nothing odd.

Post #56 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476047&postcount=56) - Feels Saucy's theories take to many mental leaps. Has misgivings about Gurthang's "anti-Eomer stance".

I'm still not seeing why morm was suspicious of him. Anybody else feeling the same way?

Post #57 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476052&postcount=57) - I can't quite get the meaning of the entire post but I think (key word there is "think") that he has a theory that morm the Wolf (now proven innocent) is trying to nab an innocent Eomer by use of guilt. (Ang, plese correct me on this one.)

Post #65 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476087&postcount=65) - Says he may be tempted to vote Nilp in order to save Eomer.

Post #71 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476107&postcount=71) - Debates whether he should vote for morm, Form or Rune because of his suspicions, or vote Nilp to save Eomer. Votes Nilp.

I can't see much suspicion in his voting for Nilp to save Eomer. I personally would still have voted for the one I was suspicious of, but that's me.

Day 2

Post #116 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476421&postcount=116) - In character comments at start. Finds that Eomer and Nilp's death could make Saucy, Gurthang and Jenny more suspicious. Says that Wolves could potentially be found in the major bandwaggons as well as those outside.

Talk about stating the obvious and not really helping out here. I'm sure we all knew that there was a Wolf in the bandwaggons as well as out. It's just to obvious. This makes me slightly uneasy, but nothing major to make him suspicious. The only thing that I could see as suspicious (and it's not in his post) is that Eomer ended up dying. Morm did bring up a good point in saying that it would make Ang look fairly innocent because Ang trusted Eomer on Day 1. Hmmm...maybe morm was on to something here.

Post #122 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476434&postcount=122) - Argue's with morm over who the slaves belong to. Insulted that morm would think him a clumsy Wolf because of his throwaway vote for Glirdan.

Petty, in character banter once again. Nothing to go on. Nothing suspicious.

Post #155 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476523&postcount=155) - Comes up with a list of Eomer's suspicions which were: TGWBS and Rune for bandwaggoning and Caran and Glirdan for throwaway votes, exonerated Di, noted the Nilp bandwaggon would be a good place for Wolves to hide, thought Gurthang was being silly.

All in all, not a suspicious post. If anything, it helps clear Ang in my eyes.

Post #181 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476619&postcount=181) - Thinks that if Eomer's death was a set up, the target would be Rune. Doesn't share Saucy's suspicons of Di; finds she's defended herself the most out of all the Eomer voters.

I must agree with him here, Diamond is the least suspcious of the four remaining. Again, nothing suspicious. So far, I'm seeing nothing that would make me want to go on and continue this, but I will for the sake of finishing what I start.

Post #188 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=476631&postcount=188) - Realises that he seems to be the most "comprehensively suspected fellow on board.". Is worried about Kath agreeing with morm about Ang being suspicious. Says that morm's reasoning behind his suspicions are lame. Says that his own vote on Day 1 would have made a solid reasoning.

This makes me uneasy again, but for some reason confirms that Ang is innocent. Why would anyone want to give someone else a good foundation for suspicions? It's ludicrous! However, it is possible that Ang is pulling a double bluff. But I'm more inclined to believe him innocent. His point about Kath also makes me uneasy about her now. Hmm...I'll take a close look at her later.

[Glirdan]

Sorry!!! Not done. I'll go finish my thought and continue later (if I feel the need to).

[the guy who be short]

Er... sorry Taliesin!

About the trio of innocents - yes, we can, and yes, we must trust them.

Anything anybody says could be wolvish. Anything proposed at all - any idea, and theory, could be wolvish.

Those three innocents cannot. They give us an objective, innocent viewpoint of things. It's absolute folly to waste them.

We can trust everything those guys say. Yes, they could be wrong. But we can trust them to try to be right. We can't trust anybody else who votes differently to be on the innocent side. Any vote not sanctioned by them cannot be trusted.

Gurthang - I have no idea what you mean by lists being meant to save innocents. They're meant to catch wolves.

Forget democracy, forget equality. If we're to get through this, we need a republic.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have no objection in principle to TGWBS’ suggestion that the known non-Wolves each identify a short-list of candidates for lynching. We can rely on at least two of them being untainted. One of the known non-Wolves may be the “innocent” Lover but, even if that is the case, they still have an interest in reducing the general Wolvish population (by a factor of three by the end of the game).

Unfortunately I have to vote now, but that does not mean that the plan should not be put into action. It will give those of us who are here tomorrow something to go on from whichever known non-Wolf the Wolves decide to kill tonight.

As expected, I have not had time to do anything like the full analysis that I would have liked to do in the current circumstances. However, here are my views of the “unknowns” based on what has been said today and my recollection of the past Days’ events:

Durelin: I am pretty sure that she is innocent, of Wolvishness at least. She has been behaving erratically, which is precisely how I would expect an innocent Durelin to behave. I don’t think that her “eccentricity” would come across as quite so genuine if she were a Wolf trying to follow her usual pattern of behaviour.

Kath: I am suspicious of Kath because of her vote yesterday for morm, and also because she seems to be basing her reasoning on points made by others, rather than coming up with her own thoughts. A definite possibility in my mind.

Lalaith: There is little basis upon which to suspect Lalaith. She has been consistently concise and helpful. She brings up good points which other have not thought of. It’s her usual approach, but it still worries me. A Wolfish Lalaith is deadly, and very difficult to spot. And the points she brings up could well be designed to lead us astray.

Diamond18: I could go either way on Diamond. Her swingeing attack on me appears genuine and, although it does rather misrepresent what I have said (particularly with regard to the Eomer voters – she accuses me of attempting to frame the Eomer voters, but doesn’t mention my later speculation that there may well have been no Wolves among those who voted for him), she gives links to my posts, so I am tempted to conclude that there is no deliberate attempt here to mislead. Wolves generally do not take such extreme positions, because they can come back and bite them. That said, she may be anticipating such reasoning and, other than her attack on me, she has put forward few opinions on whom might be Wolves.

Firefoot: I keep changing my mind on Firefoot. I remain convinced that there was a Wolf among the Day 1 Nilp voters. Since I believe Durelin to be innocent, that Wolf would have to be either Firefoot or Anguirel. Early on, she was very quiet and non-committal but has (apparently) become more helpful as the Days have progressed. However her main contribution toDay has been to focus on possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes. Not very helpful if there have been none (which a Wolf would, of course, know). She also noted that Wolves almost always vote, which I agree with as a general rule, but which would be very convenient if one of the Wolves has in fact not voted on one of the previous Days. And I don’t like her reluctance to consider TGWBS’s plan to use the known non-Wolves.

Gurthang: His votes on Days 1 and 2 looked very safe, yet his vote yesterday was a rather risky one for a Wolf (even assuming that, if a Wolf, he did not suspect Holby as the Seer). Perhaps he was attempting to correct the impression that his early votes gave of a possible safe-voting Wolf. While he has come across as genuine in most of his posts, he is cunning enough to give that impression, if a Wolf. And that Day 1 encouragement of the Eomer bandwagon, followed by a vote for Diamond, still rankles with me. I remain undecided on Gurthang.

Rune Son of Bjarne: As I said earlier, Rune’s first post of the Day smacked to me of Wolfishness. He said that he was surprised that Holby was the Seer (having voted for her). Well, I am sure that most, if not all, of us were surprised when she revealed. Why did he feel the need to make the point, particularly as no one had called him on the point? Then, conveniently, he states that he suspected none of those identified by Holby as innocents, so that didn’t help him. Whether or not one suspected them previously, it is still very helpful to have known innocents (or at least known non-Wolves) around. Then he thanks Firefoot for her voting tally. This post is comprised solely of neutral, unobjectionable comments, all of which appear designed to make Rune look good. Call it instinct, but that looks to me to be the post of a Wolf wanting to say something apparently constructive at the outset of the Day but not wanting to commit to much before seeing which way the ship is leaning. Similarly his response to Diamond’s points against me. He says that he is not convinced, but does not dimiss the possibility of voting for me if a good enough case can be made. And then there is his little spat with Gurthang which others have mentioned (and which would speak in Gurthang’s favour of he is a Wolf). He’s looking very much like a Wolf to me at the moment.

Anguirel: As with Lalaith, I find little basis on which to suspect Anguirel. He is, however, perfectly capable of pulling off a convincing innocent act. He is dangerous, if a Wolf, but I cannot vote for him on that basis alone and I can’t help but think that he is talking far too much to be a Wolf. Keeping my eye on him, though.

Glirdan: I am beginning to revise my opinion of Girdan. He seems to have jumped rather enthusiastically on Diamond’s case against me toDay. He said that he has had a feeling about me since Day 1, but that, as far as I can recall, he outlined no firm suspicions of me until yesterDay. That makes him look suspicious, at least in my eyes. Otherwise, he seems to be acting normally for him, but he nevertheless concerns me.

TGWBS: I remain of the view that TGWBS is likely to be innocent. If he were a Wolf, I would expect him to have been much more involved. His known non-Wolf plan reinforces my view of his likely innocence.

Ai! And now I must vote. Unfortunately, the person who looks most Wolfish to me is also one who has been identified as a possible Wolf by a number of people who I suspect may be Wolves themselves. And I am hesitant to join what is fast becoming a bandwagon. That said, he does look Wolfish to me and, if he is a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot better about those other possible Wolves.

+ + RUNE SON OF BJARNE

[Kath]

RL: Sorry, another Day of little participation from me. I've had appointments all morning and have been waiting for the anasthetic from the last one to wear off before posting. However, my sister managed to break the tv yesterday and with the World Cup and Wimbledon it is rather vital that we have one, so we're now off to Argos to get one. Therefore this will be my only post.

I have been reading through the thread and it seems there are three main concerns.

One is what to do about the innocents that Holby named. Though they were seen as innocent by her it is possible that one is the innocent Lover, so TGWBS's idea of having them create a list is not as effective as it has been before, because if one is a Lover they may be able to sway voting away from their wolf comrade.

The second is the worry over morm's comments on Ang. In previous Days he had gone after him quite strongly, and very strongly on Day 2 (I think). However, his suspicions had switched from Ang to Glirdan even by Day 3, and at the time of his death he seemed almost convinced of Ang's innocence. There were some fears that both morm and Ang were wolves, and others that if morm was not a Wolf then Ang was. We know that the former option can't be true, which makes the latter more likely. However, if we believe that morm was clever enough to focus on those he really believed to be wolves, his strong attack on Glirdan must be considered, as by the time of his death this opinion was stronger than the one he held on Ang.

The third is the emerging fear over Sauce. Diamond's analysis was extremely thorough and did show Sauce in a very wolvish looking light, but it seemed to be done as though written by someone already convinced of his wolvishness, and simply trying to convince everyone else. For this reason I won't pass judgement on Sauce until either I analyse him for myself or a known innocent analyses him as it will create a more unbiased viewpoint.

I've discounted the Sauce theory for now as I want to do my own investigating to form an opinion on that, and I would like to do the same over Ang and Glirdan but I must vote now and I have no time to analyse them at the moment. I will vote:

++GLIRDAN

Tomorrow I will take a much closer look at Sauce, Ang and, if he is still alive, Glirdan in the hope of forming some real opinions.

[the guy who be short]

Taliesin's list: Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Glirdan

Caran: I still feel most uneasy about Kath and Gurthang... I'm less suspicious of Kath now than I was when I started doing the analysis. Something about her posts, particularly those about her suspicions of Jenny, seems genuine.

Fin: Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang.


I'm sorry I haven't had time to come to my own rational conclusions today (we're repainting my room at short notice...) so I have to go on whim and trust.

Gurthang doesn't feel right to me, I can't explain why. It's the same way SpM and durelin feel innocent. In addition, he is the only one the three known innocents have all mentioned as suspicious.

Before it is too late, with the sincerest hope of starting a bandwagon,

++GURTHANG

[Findëasëa]

1. Diamond --> SPM (SPM 1)
2. Ang --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 1)
3. Caran --> Lalaith (SPM 1, Rune 1, Lalaith 1)
4. Durelin --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 2, Lalaith 1)
5. SPM --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1)
6. Kath --> Glirden (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1)
7. TGWBS --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 1)

[Glirdan]

I've came to the conclusion that there is no point (in my eyes anyway) to continue my anaylsis of Ang. Nothing in there has seemed to suspicious. There are, however, things that I would like to look at in closer detail in my analysis.

You know, it's just occurred to me that I seem to be the most comprehensively suspected fellow on board. morm's initial campaign was that of an innocent paranoiac, but I'm rather more worried about those who second him...especially Kath, whose point I really can't grasp. "It could either be a set-up." Whose set-up, and of whom, and what? morm setting me up? Ludicrous in my view.

Kath has not been putting out any of her own points and theories. She's been attempting to build a case off of those already created. This could mean she's an innocent with little time or care or she's a Wolf who's trying to stay under the radar. Other than that, I can't really draw anything from her.

One thing that could point to Ang's guilt is the death of Eomer on Day 1. As I said, the fact that Ang trusted Eomer throughout all of Day 1 and then Eomer being killed looks highly suspicious now. Ang could say "What excuse do I have of killing someone who I not only trusted, but is intelligent?" Excatly that. Kill him off because he's intelligent and because you could use that trust to point in a different direction. Maybe I should continue that analysis...

He seems to have jumped rather enthusiastically on Diamond’s case against me toDay. He said that he has had a feeling about me since Day 1, but that, as far as I can recall, he outlined no firm suspicions of me until yesterDay.(Saucy)

That's because I never feel easy playing with you. Normally, those feelings go away after Day 1. However, this time, they've stayed. I dismissed them on Day 2 because I needed to concentrate on the Eomer voters and trying to see who looked more suspicious. But when Diamond came out and said that she didn't trust you either, my thoughts were confirmed. Her analysis of you also gives me more reason to believe you're guilty.

Kath, what is your reasoning behind your vote for me? Is it just because morm said he thought I was guilty? Or do you have something more to go on? Thought of your own perhaps?

[Firefoot]

To clarify: by all means, I want to know what our known (presumed) innocents have to say. But I don't want to vote off a list just because we know the authors are innocent. I'll take their opinions into consideration, but I'd rather make up my own mind.

After looking at Glirdan's posts, I'm also becoming a bit more suspicious of him. I find his vote for Lhuna quite odd, being that when he analyzed Eomer's five voters, Lhuna was at the bottom of his list. Sure, she hadn't contributed much, but if he's more suspicious of other people, why not vote for them? None of them had votes yet, so it's not like that would be an issue. He does a lot of nudging suspicion onto other people. Other than that, he's just sort of there. I did not find much in his posts overly remarkable; too many of his comments on posts say "nothing suspcious/odd here". He's making me sorta nervous.

[Lalaith]

I'm torn between voting Rune and Gurthang here.
On the one hand, I suspected Rune yesterday and he's done little to assuage my suspicions today, quite the contrary in fact.
On the other, I thought Gurthang came out the dodgiest in my analysis earlier today, and I've never been entirely comfortable with him this game.

[Lalaith]

Ok, I've looked over my analysis again and I still think Gurthang looks dodgy.

++GURTHANG

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So I am back. . . and it looks like I will be this days lynch.

++The Saucepan Man

As he looks to be my best shot at surviving.

I will not bother with a defence, it is not because I want to die. I just have alot of RL things going on right now. (things I did not now would emerge when I signed up)
If I live it is great and I will try to be here as much as possible.


P.S. It took me a long time typing this in as I was chatting as well and therefor cross posted with the 2 previous posts.

[Glirdan]

Gah!! Who to vote? Who to vote...

Okay, I'm going with what my gut tells me to do.

++Saucy

He's too dangerous as a Wolf, he's been flying under the radar quite a bit this time around and Diamond's analysis along with my gut feeling have brought me to this. I just hope I'm right this time.

[Findëasëa]

1. Diamond --> SPM (SPM 1)
2. Ang --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 1)
3. Caran --> Lalaith (SPM 1, Rune 1, Lalaith 1)
4. Durelin --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 2, Lalaith 1)
5. SPM --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1)
6. Kath --> Glirden (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1)
7. TGWBS --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 1)
8. Lalaith --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 2)
9. Rune --> SPM (SPM 2, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 2)
10. Glirden --> SPM (SPM 3, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 2)

Taliesin are you around? I was wondering how you felt about the situation, or if you thought any of the forerunners particularly guilty. I am still deciding where I will place my vote

edit: changed an incorrect #

[Gurthang]

Just got back from work, and have only had enough time to look at the votes. I'm not surprised I've got a couple, considering how many have been suspicious of me.

What does surprise me is the last two for Saucepan. Reading their reasons that they have presented with their votes, I don't even know what Rune really means. Glirdan seems to have thought about it at least, but the ever popular "too dangerous as a wolf" is always somewhat suspicious.

I'm gonna hold out as usual just to see what happens. If it comes down to me and Saucepan, I'll probably still vote Rune. If I vote to save myself, it means the village would have killed me if I hadn't vetoed it. That's rather unproductive, as it almost guarantees that most of tomorrow's discussion will be about me. In my mind, it'd be better to leave an innocent who more people trust (SpM) than an innocent people don't trust (Me).

[Firefoot]

Time for me to vote:

++Rune

For reasons already stated.

Sauce – 3 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10)
Rune – 4 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

[Taliesin]

Ahh yes I'm around. I was just reading up a bit.
As I said at the start of this day, I feel bad about Saucepan Man.

So my vote goes to him, although Rune is in the lead after Firefoot's vote. That's not too bad, I'm quite convinced he might be a wolf aswell. Let's hope we get a wolf with either Rune or Sauce.

++Saucepan Man

[Gurthang]

I really feel that Saucepan Man is innocent.

++Rune Son of Bjarne

Mainly for his very wolfish actions toDay.

[Findëasëa]

++ Rune
I really think sauce is innocent, Good luck if I am not back tommorow!

[Cailín]

Saddened by the loss of their Seer, the passengers were more determined than ever to catch a wolf today.

"We cannot fail Holbytlass," claimed Caranlondien passionately. "I shall personally find the wolvish ones among us today." She observed her fellow passengers uncomfortably. "I need a drink. Where's Glirdan?"

The rest of the passengers shared her sentiments (and not just regarding the drink) and immediately, a heated discussion ensued. At the end of the day, there seemed to be no one who had not been accused of some kind of crime, even those who Holbytlass had declared innocent.

"Findeasea kicked my dog," said Firefoot huffily. "I saw her do it."

Yet none was accused with such fire as Rune, Son of Bjarne, formerly a slave and now merely a nuisance. With a clear majority, he was the one facing the wrath of the mob today.

"We don't have a plank anymore," said Gurthang, mournfully gazing at the broken piece of wood.

"I always find decapitation works particularly well for me," grinned Taliesin.

"Any last words?" asked Kath.

Rune looked around nervously, cowering against the railing.

"Confess, cheese eater!" demanded Anguirel, pointing his sword at the slave. "You feasted on Holbytlass eyeballs tonight."

"Well…," said Rune in a soft, shaky voice. "One has to eat something when there is no cheese to be had."

A wave of fear passed through the ship and even Sir Horatio backed off a little. The fearful, guileless eyes of the slave had suddenly turned yellow.

"And we all know," continued Rune. "We all know the full moon… even the night thing… is just a myth."

With a maniacal laugh, he threw his head back and gazed up to the sun. As his nose started to lengthen and his face turned hairy, he let out a howl and jumped on Weslamond the Dread Pirate jr. Fiercely he aimed for her eyes, trying to gauge them out with his newly begotten claws.

"Eyeballs, eyeballs," he sang to the sky.

Weslamond screamed in despair but the passengers seemed nailed to the deck. Even though the wolves had picked them off one by one for four successive nights now, none could quite believe they had actually managed to find one after so many failures. In a last, hopeless attempt to save herself from blindness, Weslamond jumped over the railing.

"Har!" she laughed. "I learned to swim, you know." She paddled a bit further away from the ship. "And I am getting out of this mad journey. No treasure to be had anyway."

Suddenly, from behind her, Weslamond heard a piercing screeching sound.

"It cannot be!" she gasped.

It could. Within minutes, Screaming Eels had devoured the wannabe-pirate. None of the passengers seemed even remotely disturbed.

Meanwhile, it took the combined efforts of Sir Anguirel and Taliesin to fight off the loose wolf on the ship. Finally it was Durelin who came to her senses.

"Enough," she spoke. With a dramatic ninja gesture (that of course was invisible to normal human eyes because of speed, agility and similar qualities) she took out a kunai and threw it at Rune the Wolf. It hit him right in his heart and the wolf-slave fell to his knobbly, hairy knees.

"Too little…," he grunted. "… Too late."

"We shall see about that," said Findeasea.

The tides were turning. The passengers had at last caught a fiend.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

What a relief! He sang about cheese even in his sleep, you know.

Signed,
Kath





~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Another Night has come. Sweet dreams, everyone. And wolves, tell me, who shall not wake up?

[Nogrod]

Fin had had been worried about the next night already as the day draw to a close. Her last word to her mates were "Good luck if I am not back tomorrow!".

She went quietly to ther new cabin that had been allotted to her after Jenny's death. It felt strange and unfamiliar, but surely it was more spacious and cleaner than her old one. And there was a shower there too! Luxury..., she thought.

She tried to rest but couldn't. She checked the door twice and tried to listen for any sounds approaching her cabin. There were none.

Finally she decided to look outside. She was fed up with the air, thick of her own desperation in the cabin. The fresh seawind blowed her bad thoughts away for a while. She filled her lungs with the fresh air and leaned over the railing. The moon was high up in the sky and everything was calm. Why am I so nervous? Why should it be me? she thought and gazed around one more time. There was nothing.

She went back into the cabin with a fresher mind, but was soon sweating again with fear being locked inside. This time I will not go out, whatever it takes. It's just too dangerous out there I'll try the shower instead.

She drew the shower curtains and untapped the bottom of the barrel that was filled with water. But as soon as she felt its cool and soothing effect on her skin, a series of terrible, ear-breaking high-piched screams filled the air with their nervewrecking pulse. She turned just early enough to see a pair of fangs coming through the curtain, ripping her in pieces. The water from the barrell washed away her blood...

In the morning, the first thing the passengers noticed was the fleet of sharks swimming around the ship. The second one was the missing of Fin. Both Sirs made the deduction that Fin's body had been dumped to the sea and these guys were waiting for more. But soon Caran came out from Fin's cabin, holding a piece of paper she had found over the washed remains of Fin's body. It read simply enough:

Murder, murder, that's the game.

For a moment they all stood silent. But the sun was rising.

~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)

Day5 has started. Good luck to you all!

[Glirdan]

Wow! Two shocks in one! The first being Diamond being the Lover (if I am correct that is). The second is Fin's death. Why Fin? What did she do? Did she hit to close to home on one of her guesses? Or was this just a random kill? Gah! These Wolves are getting annoying... I shall be back later...much later. I need to go clear my head and come up with an analysis of Fin's suspicions...

[Durelin]

Aha. :D

I suppose we should look at both the late Rune voters, and some of the Saucey voters, in particular (though I'm not saying we limit it to that).

I imagine Fin's death isn't all that strange. She was one of our known innocents...now we know only that two living people are innocents. Her suspicions may or may not be far off.

[Caranlondien]

Fin was killed because she was one of the known innocents. If not her, it would have been Taliesin or me.

And I don't think Diamond was the Lover... I think she must have asked to be taken out or something. I mean, if Rune were her lover, he wouldn't have eaten her eyeballs in the narration, would he? :D

Now that we know Rune was a wolf, maybe we can find some clues from his posts.

[Glirdan]

Fin was killed because she was one of the known innocents. If not her, it would have been Taliesin or me.

Oops! Sorry! I forgot about that. I hate memory loss... :rolleyes:

And I don't think Diamond was the Lover... I think she must have asked to be taken out or something. I mean, if Rune were her lover, he wouldn't have eaten her eyeballs in the narration, would he?

True enough. Hmmm... but why would she have been taken out?

[Nogrod]

The narration is now in.

Sorry it took longer I expected, but in a hurry I managed to delete the first version of it as I put it into a wrong place and had to write it again... :o

Good luck to the game everyone!

[Caranlondien]

Hmm. Well, Diamond mentioned the other Day that she was considering asking to be removed because of (I believe) time constraints. Perhaps more RL stuff came out and she thought she wouldn't be able to help much.

[Lalaith]

It's a pity about Diamond deciding she had to quit, (that can be the only explantion for the eels, I think) Today, the person who has replaced her as the one I feel most secure about (apart from the two provens we have left) is Guy, who just felt very innocent in his behaviour yesterday.

I'm glad we caught Rune but we still have three more.
One thing I've noticed..ever since Saucie said he didn't suspect Fin because Fin made too many mistakes about the rules, we've had a whole spate of "whoops, silly me!" type posts. Durelin, Glirdan, I'm looking at you.
And as for Gurthang, I'm still putting him as chief suspect partly because of this:

If it comes down to me and Saucepan, I'll probably still vote Rune. If I vote to save myself, it means the village would have killed me if I hadn't vetoed it. That's rather unproductive, as it almost guarantees that most of tomorrow's discussion will be about me. In my mind, it'd be better to leave an innocent who more people trust (SpM) than an innocent people don't trust (Me).

This statement just doesn't make much sense. In this envisaged scenario, where Gurthang and Saucie are neck and neck in the voting, how does it figure that more people trust Saucie than Gurthang? This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy.

[Durelin]

One thing I've noticed..ever since Saucie said he didn't suspect Fin because Fin made too many mistakes about the rules, we've had a whole spate of "whoops, silly me!" type posts. Durelin, Glirdan, I'm looking at you.

I can tell you right now I probably didn't even read the post that Saucie said that in because I definitely didn't read that. :p

Good observation, Lalaith. I'm looking at Gurthang, too, because of his late vote for Rune (by then a wolf knew it would be too late). He could have brought Sauce and Rune into a tie, but Rune still would've been lynched.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

[Caranlondien]

Actually, Lalaith, I was thinking the same thing. I do still think Durelin is to be trusted, by Glirdan is looking a bit more conspicuous.

Now the other two Fin was looking at yesterDay were Lalaith and Gurthang. While it's quite possible that she was killed because she would just generally have been the most helpful of we three innocents, it might also have been because she was on target there.

I still have to go over Rune's posts :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahoy there, me hearties! :)

I am feeling most optimistic, you know, after the death of Rune. It's obviously not good that we lost Fin, but that was not unexpected. Not that it means much to the rest of you, but I expected the Wolves to leave Taliesin around, what with his supicions of me 'n all, so I was fully expecting the absence of either Fin or Caran this morning. Indeed, I must raise a metaphorical arched eyebrow at Glirdan's (feigned?) surprise over this turn of events. It was always going to be one of three people that we lost last Night.

"But why the optimism, Rear-Admiral?" I hear you cry. Well, two reasons in particular.

First, the innocents are the majority in a three-way fight. Effectively, there are seven innocents against two teams of two, with all to play for. At least one, and possibly both, of the known non-Wolves are on the innocents' side. And the rest of us may not know who each other are, but numbers remain on our side for now and, if we keep our wits about us, we may even be able to pull together in a fashion.

Secondly, the death of a Wolf always provides top quality evidence. However diligently that Wolf, and his fiendish comrades, may have tried to hide their tracks, there will always be clues. We now have a wealth of evidence to sift through. I suggest that we set to it. In particular, we should be looking at:

- The cumulative voting patterns over the four Days so far.
- In particular, the way the votes went yesterDay, given the (happily fruitful) prospect of Rune's lynching throughout much of the Day.
- The manner in which suspicion against Rune gathered yesterDay.
- What Rune has said about his fellow passengers over the four Days.
- What Rune's fellow passengers said about him over the four Days.
- Possible other connections between prospective Wolves and prospective Lovers.
- The possible effect of the Lovers' presence on Wolvish behaviour, both retrospectively and prospectively.

We should also, of course, continue carefully to consider what each of us says as the Day progresses.

Since I could be relatively reassured that I would survive the Night, I took the opportunity to do a fair bit of analysis along the above lines overNight. I'll try to post as much of it as I can toDay*, since I anticipate that I will not be around too much on the morrow*. I have no definite conclusions at this stage, and I am really aiming just to post the evidence, pose a few questions on the basis of it and perhaps put forward a few tentative theories.

I am really rather confident that we will catch another Wolf toDay, you know. Wouldn't it be interesting if we were to catch one of the two remaining Loveless Wolves, setting up the delicious prospect of two remaining Wolves who each know that the other cannot be trusted?

Oh well, best get on. Back soon.

Toodle pip!

Edit: * For clarity, I mean that I will try to post as much of the analysis RL tonight as I will not be around much RL tomorrow.

[Gurthang]

This statement just doesn't make much sense. In this envisaged scenario, where Gurthang and Saucie are neck and neck in the voting, how does it figure that more people trust Saucie than Gurthang? This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy.
Maybe I'm biased against me or something, but it does seem to me that more people trust Saucepan than me. About everyone seems to have me somewhere on their suspect lists. Some high enough for votes, others not, but just about somewhere for everyone. Saucepan is on, at most, half the people's lists. (And no, I haven't counted. I'm just estimating.) Henceforth, more of the village thinks he's innocent than thinks I'm innocent.

Good observation, Lalaith. I'm looking at Gurthang, too, because of his late vote for Rune (by then a wolf knew it would be too late). He could have brought Sauce and Rune into a tie, but Rune still would've been lynched.Correct me if I'm wrong (which is becoming an annoying trend), but the voting was tied between Rune and Saucepan. Rune was up for the lynch because he had reached the tie amount first. If I had voted for Saucepan instead of Rune, our dear Rear Admiral would have been killed.

Of course, knowing that probably somehow makes me more suspicious. :rolleyes:

Oh, I also got the impression that Diamond was removed and was not the lover. Disappointing.


Hmm... Saucepan seems very... cheery. Which is something I don't see often from him in this game. He is right, though. We're in a much better spot than yesterday. If I can muster up the time, I'll do a voting analysis, since those are my favorite. :D

[Durelin]

You're right...they were tied already.

Argh, sorry, Gurthang.

Gah, lynch me for my stupidity, please... :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here's the first part of my overNight workings. Voting record from Day 1, considered in light of what we know now. Known innocents are in italics (with surviving known non-Wolves also underlined). Wolf is in bold.

1. Morm ->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan ->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith ->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien ->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. Jenny ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang ->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer ->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin ->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath

A few points worth noting, I think. First, as is often the case on Day 1s (whenever my line is present, at least), most of the votes went to innocents. The votees from Day 1 who remain unknown are: Glirdan (2 votes), Kath (1 vote) and Lalaith (2 votes). If we tentatively assume that at least one vote on Day 1 went to a Wolf (and I think it likely), then one of these is a Wolf. Then again, I'm not sure how far this gets us as, with 9 unknowns and 3 Wolves, one of these is likely to be a Wolf on the law of averages.

More pertinently, of those in the Eomer bandwaggon, one was a Wolf and only one, TGWBS, remains unknown. Would two Wolves have voted in the Eomer bandwaggon? I tend to think not, which reinforces my feeling that TGWBS is likely to be innocent.

Of those in the Nilp bandwaggon, three remain unknown: Durelin, Anguirel and Firefoot. Sticking by my theory that at least one Wolf voted in the Nilp bandwaggon, then at least one of these is a Wolf.

I think that the two remaining Wolves would probably have placed their votes elsewhere. Of the "other" voters, Glirdan, Lalaith, SpM, Gurthang and (non-voter) Kath remain unknown. I think two of these people (excluding myself, for my purposes, obviously) are Wolves.

Only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote - Glirdan's vote for Kath. I think it unlikely that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf on Day 1, if for no other reason than it would most likely arouse their fellow Wolves' suspicions that they might be the traitor among them. If that's right, then either Glirdan or Kath is a Wolf, but not both. Glirdan's vote might be described as a safe vote, given that Kath was not under much suspicion. As for Kath's non-vote, well some of you have already considered whether a Wolf would be likely not to vote. Personally, I don't see why not.

Other than that, the only vote that strikes me as particularly Wolfish is that of Gurthang, a safe, throwaway vote for Diamond when Nilp was almost done for and the only either possible lynchee was Eomer, although that is a point which has been raised previously.

Day 2 voting record analysis coming up ...

[The Saucepan Man]

If I had voted for Saucepan instead of Rune, our dear Rear Admiral would have been killed.Indeed. Churlish though it may seem, given that you saved my life, I have something to say about that. But all in good time.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

He posts nonsense pretty much all Day, until he votes for Eomer, jumping onto Lhuna's vote with a silly grudge-reason.

Day Two

#113: Eomer is dead, oh no! He apparently doesn't know what to think about it :rolleyes: :D

#119: Thinks Eomer was killed to create confusion. Puzzled by all the votes for Nilp.

#133: Thinks Jenny is innocent.

#161: Thinks either Anguirel or morm is a wolf. Can't read Glirdan at all. Thinks Lhuna is innocent.
SPM- I will need to see some heavy evidence against him before I will consider voting for him. Sure he is very dangourus as a wolf, but also very helpfull as inoccent.
Will probably vote for either Holby or Firefoot, attributing it to SpM's post. Thinks tgwbs looks "a bit crooked".

#179: Continues to defend Jenny.

#189: Eliminates Firefoot from the candidates for his vote due to a recent helpful post, leaving Glirdan and Holby in the running. Votes Holby.

Day Three

#227: Defends himself against Glirdan's accusations of being unusually quiet.

#234: Highly suspicious of tgwbs. Mildly suspicious of Glirdan. Still thinks either morm or Anguirel is a wolf. Still thinks Holby is somewhat suspicious. Removes Firefoot entirely from his suspect list.

#239: Votes tgwbs.

Day Four

#302: Nothing important.

#310: Responds to Diamond's accusal of SpM, defending him, though being careful to point out he's willing to vote SpM if he gets some convincing arguments.

#326: Turns Gurthang's accusation right back on Gurthang. Also continues to suspect Anguirel, since morm turned out innocent, but seems to be backing off.

#329: Continues to defend himself against Gurthang.

#355: Votes SpM to try to save himself.

------------------------------------------

Rune gives us very little to go on. I can't help but wonder if he was an intentional sacrifice.

He keeps Glirdan on mild suspicion, but always has a higher-up suspect. A safe place to keep one of your fellow wolves. The move away from Firefoot is also suspicious, as is his defense of SpM.

EDIT: added the title "Rune" so that people know who the heck I'm talking about...

[The Saucepan Man]

Same format.

1. Morm -> Anguirel (Ang-1)
2. Findesea -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-1)
3. Lhuna -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Lalaith -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1)
5. Rune -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1)
6. SpM -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holbytlass-2)
7. Kath -> Jenny (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Formendacil-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1)
8. Glirdan -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-1)
9. Anguirel -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
10. Caran -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
11. Jenny -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
12. Taliesin -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3)
13. Durelin -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3)
14. Holbytlass - Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4)
15. Firefoot -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4)
16. Gurthang -> morm (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4, morm-1)

Did not vote: Formendacil, TGWBS, Diamond

Again, the majority of the votes were for innocents. The unknows who received votes were: Anguirel (1 vote), Lalaith (2 votes) and Firefoot (2 votes). Again, it's likely that there's a Wolf there, by the law of averages if nothing else.

The main bandwaggon of Day 2 was the Lhuna Express. Of the Lhuna-voters, Anguirel and Glirdan remain unknown. The voting on Day 2 was quite different in its manner from Day 1. There were no clear contenders for lynching, at least not until relatively late on. So I am not so certain that there's a Wolf among the Lhuna bandwaggon. They might well have sought to distance themselves from it. If there is a Wolf there, I tend to think Glirdan the more likely one. As I recall, it rather came out of the blue, Lhuna having featured fairly low on his earlier suspect list based on those who voted for Eomer. I cannot now recall, however, the circumtances of Ang's vote.

The secondary bandwaggon was that for Holbytlass, and there we find our known Wolf, Rune. The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. ;) OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved :D ).

Again, only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote: Firefoot's vote for Lalaith. Based on the same reasoning as that for Day 1, I think it unlikely that any Wolf would have voted for another on Day 2. There was no need to. And Firefoot's vote for Lalaith, taking her to 2 votes with four potential votes still in the offing, looks far too risky to me in the circumstances to be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I am fairly sure, therefore, that, if Lalaith is a Wolf, the Firefoot is not, and vice versa.

Gurthang's vote again stands out as a possible Wolfish vote. With three non-voters, the one vote for morm (cast, I believe, shortly before the deadline) was never going to kill him. Again, a safe, throwaway vote.

As with Kath, TGWBS's non-vote does not exempt him from suspicion, even though his two fellow non-voters were innocent.

Day 3 to follow ...

[The Saucepan Man]

I can't help but wonder if he was an intentional sacrifice.I am almost certain that it was, or at least one that became pragmatic during the Day. There was at least one Wolf voting for Rune yesterDay, possibly more, I am sure of it. But again, all in good time. :D

[The Saucepan Man]

Same routine.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Rune -> TGWBS (SpM-1, TGWBS-1)
3. Morm -> Firefoot (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Firefoot -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1)
5. Taliesin -> Glirdan (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1)
6. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1)
7. SpM -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1)
8. Glirdan-> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-1)
9. TGWBS -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-2)
10. Caran -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
11. Holby -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
12. Lalaith -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2)
13. Anguirel -> Kath (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2, Kath-1)
14. Kath -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-3, Kath-1)
15. Gurthang -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)
16. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)

Now things get interesting, as Rune begins to attract some votes.

But I will first turn to the morm bandwaggon, comprised as it was of 3 of those who remain unknown: Glirdan, TGWBS and Kath. I somehow doubt that the Wolves could have resisted the opportunity to get morm in the frame, even though there was never very much in the way of evidence against him as far as I can see. I am therefore pretty sure that one (but probably only one) of the morm voters is a Wolf. Based upon my feeling that TGWBS is likely innocent, that points to either Glirdan or Kath.

There was also a Holby bandwaggon, comprising myself and Gurthang (plus an innocent Caran). Hmm, if I were to conclude that a Wolf was likely to have joined this bandwaggon (and I'm not entirely sure on that) then, as far as I am concered, that can only point to Gurthang. His vote is an interesting one as it bucked the trend of the previous Days, being as it was for an innocent who was in severe danger of being lynched. I believe that this followed comments about his previous votes having been safe, so (as I think I speculated yesterDay) was he trying to disguide his Wolfish behaviour? Or is that too obvious?

Rune voted early for TGWBS. I think that the Wolves would probably still have been avoiding Wolf-on-Wolf votes at this stage and this would, in any event, have been a reckless Wolf-on-Wolf vote as I believe that there was a fair bit of muttering about TGWBS at the time Rune voted. I commented at the time that I thought the Wolves might have marked out TGWBS as a potential lynch victim for Day 3. Rune's Day 3 vote therefore puts TGWBS in a rather good light, I think.

The same might also be said of Lalaith's vote for Rune. Why would one Wolf put another Wolf on 2 votes, to bring him level with three other cadidates? The only credible possibility, to my mind, is that she is the Lover Wolf and was trying to kill him, but I think that very unlikely as it would be far too risky, or that she is a Loveless Wolf and suspected him as the Lover Wolf. On balance, though, I still think it unlikely that a Wolf voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 3 and Lalaith's vote for Rune therefore speaks in her favour as far as I am concerned.

One other possibility occurs to me. Perhaps Lalaith is the innocent Lover, knew Rune was a Wolf and was trying to take him out. Possible, but it would have been a risky move for her, as it risked exposing her to the Loveless Wolves.

Other possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes: Anguirel for Kath and Firefoot for Durelin. Neither of these seems likely to me, but it's possible that one of them was.

Relishing the prospect of a Day 4 analysis ...

[Gurthang]

Well, here's what I could scrounge together in the 25 minutes I had.

- - - - - - - - - - - - Day 1 - - - - - Day 2 - - - - - Day 3 - - - - - Day 4

Durelin . . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune . . . . . . . Rune
Caranlondien . . . . .Jenny. . . . . . .Firefoot . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . Lalaith
Kath . . . . . . . . . . (None) . . . . . . Jenny . . . . . . .morm . . . . . . Glirdan

Lalaith . . . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . .Rune . . . . . .Gurthang
Firefoot . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lalaith . . . . . . Durelin . . . . . . Rune
Gurthang . . . . . . .Diamond . . . . . morm . . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . Rune

Taliesin . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Glirdan . . . . . .Saucey
Saucepan Man . . . Holby . . . . . . . Holby. . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune
Anguirel . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Rune

Glirdan . . . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Saucey
TGWBS . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . (none) . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Gurthang
Rune . . . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . TGWBS . . . . . .Saucey

Sadly, I again have to leave. But now that I have constructed a table, you can all use it and maybe I'll get back and have the chance. Oh, and before you say it Lalaith, let me: "He's just trying to look helpful to throw off suspicion." :p 'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

I think it's strange how all the pieces are falling into place and pointing straight at me. Although, as bad as this game has gone for me, it really shouldn't surprise me. :rolleyes:


*Play on a PotC quote.

[The Saucepan Man]

Format as before.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Ang -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1)
3. Caran -> Lalaith (SpM-1, Rune-1, Lalaith-1)
4. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1)
5. SpM -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1)
6. Kath -> Glirdan (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1)
7. TGWBS -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-1)
8. Lalaith -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
9. Rune -> SpM (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
10. Glirdan -> SpM (SpM-3, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
11. Firefoot -> Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
12. Taliesin -> SpM (SpM-4, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
13. Gurthang -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
14. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)

Two main bandwaggons - Rune and SpM.

I am pretty much convinced that at least one Wolf, quite possibly two, voted for Rune yesterDay, because I think it distinctly possible that Caran's speculation that Rune was put up as a sacrificial victim to make his fellow Wolves look good is spot on. If not, then his sacrifice certainly became pragmatic to them as the Day progressed. I am going to look at the way that suspicion built up around Rune as the Day progressed in a moment (it's important because one of the main reasons that Rune became such a prime lynching candidate was the spat with Gurthang over his vote for Eomer contrasted with his reasoning for being reluctant to vote for me), but for now I am just looking at the votes.

I have to acknowledge that my vote for Rune looks rather Wolfish, particularly as a great deal of suspicion was being thrown his way, and he already had 2 votes, at the time I voted. All I can say on this is that I am not a Wolf and my vote for Rune was not a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. It's up to you whether you believe that.

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang. Much suspicion had been expressed of Rune already when all of these were cast, moreso the later ones. However, I think it likely that a Wolf would have been looking to put their vote for Rune in at a fairly decisive moment. To my mind, the votes of Firefoot and Gurthang look the most Wolfish. By the stage that they both voted, it was pretty clear that it was going to be between me and Rune, with Gurthang a possible contender at the time Firefoot voted. This only really helps me, but I know that my death would have proven me innocent. So, if Firefoot and/or Gurthang is a Wolf, they had the choice between being caught in the badwaggon of one who would be proven innocent (which would look bad) or sacrificing one of their own (which would look good). The Wolves could afford to lose one of their number. Perhaps two of them even thought Rune the Wolf Lover (although not if he had volunteered to be the sacrifical Wolf the Night before).

Indeed, if Gurthang was a Wolf, he found himself in the rather enviable (for a Wolf) position of being able to save me and take part of the credit for killing a Wolf. That would look doubly good if were to die at some point. And I rather agree with Lalaith that his self-serving post suggesting himself as a possible sacrifice to save me looks suspicious. Other than me, only the Wolves know that I am innocent and that this comment might therefore put him in a good light in the long-term. He has sought to explain it by saying that he was attracting more suspicion than me. YesterDay's voting (4 votes for me, 2 votes for Gurthang) hardly bears that out.

On balance, I think that two Wolves probably voted for Rune, and my tentative conclusion is that those Wolves were probably Gurthang and Firefoot, although I do not dismiss the possibility that Anguirel started the ball rolling with a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

The thing that troubles me about definately labelling Gurthang a Wolf is that, looking back at the way the case against Rune gathered during the Day, it is clear that he (or, more accurately, his spat with Rune) was the main force behind those suspicions. And the other two main instigators of them were Anguirel and Firefoot, my other two possible Rune-voting Wolves. If one or two of these three are Wolves, this would point towards the Rune sacrifice having been pre-arranged. But it gives me some cause for doubt.

On to some of the other votes.

Of those in the SpM bandwaggon, one was a Wolf, one was an innocent, one is a known non-Wolf and one, Glirdan, remains unknown. Glirdan's vote followed Rune's vote for me, although Glirdan had expressed strong suspicions of me from fairly early on in the Day. Nevertheless, I think it unlikely that there was more than one Wolf voting for me, so this somewaht eases my suspicions of Glirdan.

Rune's vote for me alas does not go very far towards clearing me, as it would benefit two Wolves to vote for each other in circumstances where the two of them were the main lynch candidates. With no double lynchings, one would die leaving the other in a position to take some of the credit.

Given how (to my mind at least) there seems to be much pointing towards Gurthang being a Wolf, the fact that TGWBS and Lalaith both voted for him gives me further cause to feel comfortable about the two of them. If Gurthang is a Wolf, and there was a plan (whether prearranged or ad hoc) to sacrifice Rune, it is highly unlikely that any Wolves would have cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote for another of their number. Also, Rune had been attacking TGWBS fairly strongly on Day 3 and this also speaks in Guy's favour.

The other vote worthy of mention is Kath's vote for Glirdan. In my Day 1 analysis I noted that Glirdan's Day 1 vote for Kath made it unlikely that both were Wolves together. That is even more the case with Kath's vote here. Given that, as I recall, Glirdan was never a serious contender to be lycnhed yesterDay, this might be viewed as a safe vote. It was quite early, but Rune had already taken quite a lead in the lynching stakes.

[The Saucepan Man]

'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

*Play on a PotC quote.Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...? :p

[The Saucepan Man]

For the sake of completeness. Here are my notes on the way that suspicion gathered around Rune yesterDay. Apologies for the lack of post numbers, but I am farily sure that it accurately (and chronologically) reflects the way things went.

The case against Rune really started when Gurthang picked him up on the contradiction between his being reluctant to vote for me just because I would be a dangerous Wolf and his Day 1 vote for Eomer. So, Gurthang was really the first to raise serious suspicion of Rune yesterDay.

Then Anguirel voiced some suspicion of Rune - although he was not Ang’s top suspect at that point. Kath and Durelin, then me, preceeded Rune in his poem/list.

I then noted that I was a little concerned over Rune due to the tenor of his first post of the Day.

Findesea was next to state Rune as a suspect, along with Gurthang and Lalaith.

Rune then identified Gurthang as a suspect for his picking him up on the "dangerous as Wolf" issue. He also suspected Anguirel (as he had on previous Days).

Firefoot noted Rune’s faulty reasoning on the “dangerous as Wolf” issue.

Anguirel weighed in with a comment about Rune’s defence being “extraordinary oratory” and put in the first vote for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1).

Durelin then said that she thought Rune looked Wolfish (continuing her suspicions from the previous Day).

Caran included Rune as a possible suspect, although she mentioned him last after Kath and Lalaith.

Firefoot mentioned Rune as a particular focus of her intended investigations.

Gurthang categorised Rune’s reaction to his comment as “over the top” and indicated that Rune would be likely receive his vote.

Fin analysed Rune and concluded that he seemed to have been playing it safe and that he looked pretty suspicious.

Firefoot concurred with Fin.

Durelin voted for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1).

SpM outlined strong suspicions of Rune (explaining the concern expressed earlier over Rune's first post of the Day) and gave him his third vote (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1).

Lalaith said that she was torn between voting Gurthang or Rune (but voted for Gurthang).

Rune voted for me as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). It occurred to me that a vote for Gurthang would surely have been a better option, unless he was bargaining on me ultimately receiving more votes (and he could predict Taliesin and Glirdan would probably vote for me). Nevertheless, it's possible that he was protecting Gurthang.

Gurthang said that, even if it was between him and SpM, he would probably still vote for Rune. This is the comment that Lalaith picked up on earlier toDay.

Firefoot voted for Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Gurthang voted for Rune, citing my likely innocence (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Fin did likewise, although clearly cross-posting with Gurthang, also citing a belief in my innocence (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

The main point to come out of this I think is that, as I noted earlier, it was really Gurthang that started the suspicion of Rune. And many concerns had already been expressed about Rune (by Anguirel, me, Fin and Firefoot - in that order) by the time Anguirel cast the first vote for him.

This does rather speak in Gurthang's favour (and, less so, Ang's) unless there was a Wolfish plan hatched the previous Night to sacrifice Rune. But that scenario is a distinct possibility in my mind, given that Rune attracted the joint highest number of votes on Day 3.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry for jabbering on folks. Just a bit more and then I'll shut up. As I said, I want to get all this down now as I will be away for most of the rest of the Day.

I know Caran has already done an analysis of Rune's posts, but I had already largely prepared my own analysis, so I might as well offer it up for general consumption.

Day 1:

Unreasoned (second) vote for innocent Eomer.

Day 2:

Agrees with Formendacil that Eomer’s death was calculated to cause confusion. Expresses surprise at so many votes for Nilp. Was he perhaps directing us towards the Nilp voters (of whom Durelin, Ang and Firefoot remain unknown)? [#119]

Tempted to agree with Jenny re Jenny’s explanation of her vote for Holby.

Picks up on morm’s case against Ang - thinks one of them a Wolf. Cannot read Glirdan. Thinks Lhuna innocent (she was). Needs strong evidence to vote for a potentially helpful, but also potentially dangerous, SpM. Came to suspect Holby and Firefoot on the basis of SpM’s reasoning. TGWBS seems crooked (gut feeling). Won’t vote for Jenny. Likely to vote for TGWBS, Holby, Firefoot or, possibly, Glirdan. [#161]

Defends Jenny again, against Taliesin. [#179]

Finds that Firefoot has been helpful, so will not vote for her. That leaves Glirdan and Holby (TGWBS disappears from his suspect list, although he reappears on Day 3). Votes Holby because “she is capable fo more” (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1). [#189]

Day 3:

Expresses surprise that Jenny was the Hunter, but not surprised that she chose Form as her target. Challenges Glirdan’s assertion that he’s a vocal player. No prime suspect. [#227]

Analyses TGWBS, Glirdan, morm/Ang, Holby and Firefoot (his Day 2 stated suspects). Finds TGWBS very suspicious - quiet and confusing - and likely to get his vote. Finds Glirdan slightly suspicious. Still thinks either Ang or morm is a Wolf. Still suspicious of Holby, but unlikely to vote for her. Little suspicion of Firefoot because of her helpfulness. Thinks those not mentioned innocent for now. [#234]

Votes for TGWBS on previous reasoning (SpM-1, TGWBS-1). [#239]

Day 4:

Early post which says little, but which smacked of Wolvery to me. [#302]

In response to Di’s entreaty, would consider voting for SpM, but would need strong evidence. [#310]

Sees Gurthang as suspicious for picking up on his “dangerous villagers” comment. Sticking with his suspicion of Ang on the basis that morm turned out innocent. [#326 and #329]

Votes for SpM, supposedly as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). [#355]

Summary

It looks to me like Rune may have been setting Anguirel up with his "theory" that either morm or Anguirel was a Wolf. This is a technique that an ancestor of mine used as a Wolf to lay suspicion on first one innocent and then (when he died) another. To my mind, that speaks in Ang's favour.

Most of those that Rune explicitly stated he thought innocent innocent or defended have turned out innocent (Lhuna and Jenny).

His main stated suspects were TGWBS, Holby and Firefoot, though he later stated that his supicions of Firefoot had eased.

He expressed mild suspicion of Glirdan, morm and Ang (and, on Day 4, Gurthang).

As far as I can see, he never mentioned Kath, Lalaith and Durelin.

[The Saucepan Man]

I should, perhaps, make clear that the analysis of Rune in my previous post was directed mainly towards what he had said about his fellow passengers, rather than being a comprehensive analysis of his posts.

There now follows an analysis of what others have said about Rune. It may not pick up everything as I was relying on the thread search function, and also rather tired at the time (as indeed I am fast bcoming at this very moment).

Day 1:

Anguirel notes Rune as an early suspect - although that arose mainly from banter. [#51, #57 and #71]

Day 2:

Glirdan’s analysis of the Eomer-voters is interesting (#132, #135, #136, #139, #140 and #143). He finds Rune slightly suspicious and places him fourth in the list after Taliesin, Diamond (I think he meant Diamond by Engels, since TGWBS is also included) and TGWBS (with Lhuna - whom he later voted for - fourth).

Lalaith picks up on Glirdan’s analysis of Rune (and Taliesin). [#160]

Durelin suspects Rune for his early (unreasoned) vote for Eomer. [#165]

Anguirel considers that Eomer’s death may have been intended to frame an Eomer-voter and thinks Rune the most likely victim of such a frame-up. [#181]

Firefoot, in a comprehensive analysis, categorises Rune as a blundering innocent and says he seems too unsure of everything to be a Wolf. [#183]

Glirdan seizes upon Durelin’s comment that Rune has posted little and says he finds that worrying as he considers Rune to be normally “a really vocal player”. [#193]

Glirdan subsequently mentions Rune, among others, before voting for Lhuna. [#196]

Day 3:

Glirdan backs down from his comment about Rune being vocal. [#237]

Gurthang thinks Rune makes some good points about TGWBS being unreadable. [#238]

In a comprehensive analysis, Lalaith expresses serious worries about Rune - for bandwaggoning against Eomer, bantering too much and picking on TGWBS as an easy target. [#249]

Ang not unduly worried about Rune (in the context of Holby-voters). [#252]

Rune tops Durelin’s suspect list (with also includes Holby and Anguirel, possibly Taliesin) [258]

Durelin votes for Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1). [#261]

In response to Taliesin, Glirdan explains his comments on the Eomer voters and Rune in particular - found him suspicious as an Eomer-voter, but less so than most other Eomer voters. [#264]

Of those with votes, Ang suspects Rune and Durelin - neither emphatically. [#268]

Lalaith votes for Rune in the absence of her other suspects as front-runners (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2). [#277]

Kath notes Rune as a lynch candidate, but doesn’t really know what to think of him. [#286]

Findesea gave Rune his third vote - at the death, so to speak (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1).

For Day 4 - see analysis a few posts above.

Conclusions and thoughts about possible co-Wolves

Ang was to and fro about Rune from Day 1 through to Day 4, and even then Rune was not as high on his list as some others until the Gurthang spat. Possible Wolfish comrade.

Durelin was consistent in her suspicions of Rune from Day 2 on. Unlikely a fellow Wolf. But might be the innocent Lover, having been told of his Wolfishness.

Kath has hardly mentioned him. A definite possibility as a co-Wolf.

Lalaith was pretty firm in her suspicions of him on Day 3 and voted for him, putting him level with Durelin, Holby and morm on 2 votes, but did not vote for him on Day 4. Unlikely Wolvish comrade, but a possible innocent Lover.

Firefoot hardly mentioned him, noting him only as a blundering innocent, until the suspicion started to gather on Day 4. A possible Wolfish comrade.

Gurthang is in much the same boat as Firefoot with regard to Rune. His Day 3 vote could have been intended to save Rune and his Day 4 vote may well have been calculated to make him look good. A distinctly possible Wolfish comrade.

Glirdan mooted mild suspicions about Rune on Day 2, but didn’t really mention him much after that. Possible Wolfish comrade.

TGWBS has not mentioned Rune at all, but Rune was gunning for him on Day 3. The only credible possibility I see is that TGWBS is the Lover Wolf and Rune suspected him as such. Doubtful though.

[The Saucepan Man]

Right. I'm done. You will no doubt be glad that won't be hearing from me now until much later on (RL) tomorrow. I leave you with my own current thinking, based on all of the above.

Possible Wolves: Gurthang, Kath and Firefoot.
Could go either way: Anguirel and Glirdan
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
Innocents: Caran and Taliesin

Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

The though of a Wolfish Anguirel and an innocent Lalaith as Lovers somehow amuses me greatly. But I haven't really had time to go back and try to look for possible Lover connections, so my thoughts on the innocent Lover are tentative in the extreme.

And (except, obviously, for the known non-Wolves) my thoughts on the possible Wolves and innocents are by no means cast in stone. I'll make my mind up when I get back tomorrow and see what others have had to say.

Cheerio!

[Durelin]

OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Awww...and you had my hopes up... :p

Gurthang and Glirdan are looking the most suspicious right now, but that might change by RL tomorrow. Firefoot's up there, too. Kath is possible, but she's barely been around....which perhaps I should be more worried about, except that I feel for legitimate absences.

I haven't got anything more right now. Reading your analyses, Saucie, made me lose an ebay auction and I need to go and cry myself to sleep... :rolleyes: ;)

[Glirdan]

Okay, now I don't know what to think of Saucy. His analyses have eased my suspicions of him...somewhat. There's just something I don't trust about him. And those points Diamond brought up yesterDay...I really don't know what to think of him now...

Kath is also starting to worry me. She says very little and doesn't give any of her own input. She uses other peoples evidence for her reasonings without building on them.

Another person that's sligthly worrying me, and it's only because of a point that morm brought up on Day 2, is Ang. The death of Eomer is what really bugs me.

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

The rest don't seem overly odd. If anything, I'm inclined to believe that Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent.

Idea just poped into my head! We all have that little nagging suspicion in us that either Taliesin or Caran could be the Wolf Lover (if you don't, then there might be something a little wrong with you). So, if we are to assume properly, the Wolves will be picking them off over the next two Nights. However, if one of them IS the Lover, one of the Wolves will be trying to persuade the others to keep away from that one. My suggestion is that if after the two Nights, one of them still lives, lynch him or her. That way, we get rid of the innocent who is not really innocent as well as getting rid of another Wolf.

However, just to ease my mind, I will still go back and analyse them.

[Glirdan]

Basically what I'm going to do is go over them quickly and see who they have defended constantly.

Taliesin: Quick Analysis

Day 1

All in character stuff. No defenses of anybody.

Day 2

Nothing here. Barely posted due to RL reasons I believe.

Day 3

Again, has barely posted and no defenses.

Day 4

And for the final time, no defenses. One thing I have noticed throughout all his posts, however, is he seems to be really consistent with his suspicions. I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

I shall do my analysis of Caran later. For now, I must depart. I shall be back from my nap shortly.

[Firefoot]

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly. Glirdan, I wouldn't worry about them. The wolves will pick them off, unless one of them is the innocent Lover and we pick off a non-Lover wolf toDay or tomorrow (toMorrow? ;) ), in which case we would know that the one still around is the Lover because they wouldn't be dead (unless the wolves decided to bluff it, I guess). But right now there is no point in focusing our energies on them. In fact, your pointing them out for further checking is rather wolvish; "let's spend time looking at our innocents, then we won't find wolves..."I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes. ...What? Of course he's not the wolf lover. If he was that, he would have looked like a wolf to the seer.

Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious to me; I definitely want a further look at him...

A thought: now that we're getting down in numbers, using gender to find the Lovers might be useful; theoretically, one of Durelin, Kath, or Lalaith (or me, from the rest of your standpoints, I suppose) has to be guilty. Same goes for Glirdan, Sauce, Ang, Gurthang, and TGWBS (but there's more of you). And I would say that it's probable that not all the wolves were the same gender - seriously, there was about a 50-50 gender split; it would seem unlikely that all the wolves were male and only the innocent Lover was female (or vice-versa). Sheerly from a probability stand-point, I think it's likely that there are two guilty people from each list; one from each is a given. I'm not really sure how useful this will be from a strategic stand point, but there it is. Kath, I still don't really see as a wolf because of the no-voting thing, but maybe an innocent lover... so Durelin or Lalaith as a wolf? Both of these two have been suspicious to me in the past - maybe that's where I'll start when I pick up with this tomorrow morning. (I didn't get home until about an hour ago, and it's about time for me to sleep now. I'll have more thoughts/comments then; Glirdan just stood out to me.)

Oh, and for those of you who prefer my format (I know I have a hard time looking at the other sort):

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

[Gurthang]

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...? :p
Oh, gee, thanks. That brings hope to my heart. :rolleyes:

Almost everything since I left has been Saucepan Man. I wish I had time to read it, because, glancing at bits of it, it looks pretty good. I think you're right about most of it. Well, except me. :rolleyes:

As for my suspicions, Glirdan's little analysis of our known innocents is somewhat strange. Seems like he's trying to shift the focus off of finding the wolves.

[Caranlondien]

I have serious suspicions of Gurthang, but I don't want to vote for him just yet.

Firefoot is right about the gender ratio. Out of Durelin, Kath, Lalaith, and Firefoot, we probably have one or two wolves. I know that either the innocent lover or the wolf-lover is in there, because I know I'm not the lover. So I suggest concentrating our efforts on the females. So that's one evil person guaranteed, and chances are there's another one. I tend to eliminate Durelin from the suspect list, because she seems very un-suspicious. As for the other three, I'm just not sure... yet. :D I'll be back, after some reviewing.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff in her first post, then shows up saying she won't be voting.

Day Two

#163: Surprised by Eomer's death, since he had garnered so much suspicion; thinks the wolves must have thought he was the Seer. Suspicious of Jenny for "I-told-you-so" comment.

#182: Agrees with Holby's points about Jenny. Doesn't seem sure what to think about morm's attack on Ang (suggests it could be a set-up, or wolf-Ang trying to make it look like a set-up, decides morm is probably innocent, then adds that he does seem overly jumpy, though). Seems to take Lhuna's claim that Firefoot is the wolf-lover seriously, considers Lhuna might be the Seer, but decides it's improbable. Her suspect list comprises Jenny, Ang, and Firefoot. Polls the village (where's DancingSpawn? :D ) about our opinion on Lhuna's "claim".

#187: Consults the rules concerning the Seer and sees the Seer can't see the ordo-lover's lover status, but wonders if she can see the wolf-lover's lover status. (I just have to note that that may have been one of the most awkward sentences I've ever written...followed by this sentence, which used the dreaded "that that"... okay, [/grammer geekiness]... I should really go to sleep :rolleyes: )

#191: Ugh, well. I'm going to keep Lhuna on my suspect list because it was just such a weird thing to do. This seems like rather an innocent statement to me.... I'm not sure why exactly, it just strikes me as ordo-ish.
Votes Jenny.

Day Three

#242: Thinks there isn't much point in looking over Jenny's posts because she was probably killed for gifted-hints and not for Seer-ish statements, but looks back over them anyway. Says since the wolves felt comfortable killing her, she probably wasn't close on any of her suspects. Finds herself agreeing with suspicion of tgwbs.

#243: Analyzes tgwbs, concludes he is unusually quiet - could be a wolf, could be an irritating ordo.

#286: Distressed that she has come back with 4 minutes left to find a tie. Won't vote Holby. Doesn't know about the other three.

#288: Votes morm to break tie, because he's the only candidate she's had any suspicion of all day. Seems genuinely anxious.

Day Four

#348: Says due to RL difficulties, this will be her only post. Doesn't like tgwbs's suggestion to have the three known non-wolves make lists of doom because they might be ordo-lovers. Comments on the morm-Ang "one is a wolf" theory, states that by the time he died, morm's suspicions had turned more to Glirdan than Ang. Says she won't vote SpM until she or a known innocent has analyzed him, as Diamond seemed already convinced of his wolvishness. Votes Glirdan. Plans to look more closely at SpM, Ang, and (if he's still alive) Glirdan the next Day.

Day Five

She hasn't appeared yet toDay.

----------------------------

I don't think she's a wolf. For one thing, there's her early no-vote. Then there's her vote for Jenny, who I'm sure by that point all the wolves had pegged as a gifted. She doesn't strike me as someone who'd be that bold as a wolf. My memory may be a bit fuzzy, but I seem to remember her being a very quiet wolf, flying under the radar, and not taking any chances. Granted, she's been quiet, she's flown under the radar somewhat, but she has been taking some pretty bold chances.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

Some in-character stuff first, then...

#50: Points out that Eomer, Fin, and tgwbs have yet to speak, and agrees with SpM that we ought not to vote for people before they've shown themselves. Thinks the voting records will be easier to read than usual, because with the Lovers around the Wolves will be more wary of wolf-on-wolf votes.

#52: Suggests SpM and Ang look up their biblical queries on Google.

#62: Corrects Nilp about how Eomer characterized his actions (he said unwolvish, not wolvish) but disagrees, thinks it's merely Nilp-ish.

#68: Uneasy about Form. Doesn't like the Eomer-bandwagon; doesn't want to vote for Nilp either. Looks like she's trying to get out of casting a deciding vote.

#72: Decides to vote for Form.

Day Two

#109: Thinks the wolves must have thought Eomer was the Seer. Wonders why they thought this.

#110: Corrects Fin about the Hunter-Ranger relationship.

#124: Doesn't think the wolves would be so silly as to allow a grudge to motivate their killing of Eomer. Thinks it was probably because they thought him Gifted or because they wanted to waste a Seer dream.

#126: Corrects Caran about Nilp's role (Ranger, not Hunter).

#160: Finds herself believing contradicting things as she reads different people's theories. Points out that who posts first is more determined by time zones than by wolfishness. Points out Eomer could have been mistaken for the Seer because he pegged someone as innocent. Thinks Glirdan has made some interesting points about Taliesin and Rune

#178: Says due to RL, she can't comment as much as she wants. Worried about Form and Taliesin. Votes Form.

Day Three

#226: Not surprised that Jenny was the Hunter, and doesn't blame her for suspecting Form, but notes she did begin to wonder about him after his total non-appearance the Day before. Says she'll be making a post of her thoughts on everyone. Says she prefers to use observations to draw conclusions, rather than trying to find a suspect who fits one's preconceived notion of what how a wolf will be acting, as she says Fin seems to be doing.

#230: Responds to Fin's response.

#231: Wishes Fin a happy birthday.

#249: Notes flurry of last-minute activity and much un-reasoned voting yesterDay. Gives thoughts on everyone so far. Chief concerns are Caran and Rune. Wants to hear more from morm about Jenny's list.

#255: Asks morm if he thinks that because Jenny removed Gurthang and Firefoot from her suspect list, they may have thought it safe to kill her.

#277: Votes Rune, bringing him up to a tie with the leaders, Holby and morm, both known innocents. A very risky move for a wolf, especially since Fin nearly got Rune lynched that Day - if she had voted a bit earlier, he would have died instead of morm. The question is, did the wolves plan this early to sacrifice Rune?

Day Four

#303: Notes the cross-posting of Kath's vote for morm, Gurthang's vote for Holby, and Fin's vote for Rune, which means that each voter thought they were casting the deciding vote in the three-way tie. Agrees with Firefoot that we don't have to worry too much about the Lovers. Still thinks morm was onto something about Jenny's list (I guess this implies she thinks Gurthang or Firefoot is guilty).

#304: Points out to Firefoot that wolves sometimes do skip out on voting. (However, Firefoot later points out that Lal's example is from the early days of WW.)

#325: Follows morm's instructions to look at the voting records from Jenny's list. Says Firefoot's lack of consistency in voting times strikes her as innocent. Nervous about Gurthang because he always votes just before the deadline and has cast two throw-away votes, plus one (as far as he knew decisive) vote for Holby. Notes that Rune always votes early - RL constraints or playing it safe? Points out that tgwbs votes in the "seemingly casual middle period" but each time his vote has put someone in the lead.

#330: Points out that any of the three known not-wolves could still be the lover.

#334: Reminds Durelin that Holby was outed as the Seer before she died.

#353: Torn between voting Rune and Gurthang.

#354: Votes Gurthang, but I doubt it's an attempt to save Rune. She almost got him lynched the Day before, and I still think his death was planned, so she wouldn't be trying to save him if she were a wolf.

Day Five

#371: Thinksj Guy is innocent. Suspicious of people who've made "mistakes" that make them look innocent (points out Durelin and Glirdan). Suspicious of Gurthang for weird reasoning about not voting to save himself over SpM. "This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy."

----------------------------

My overall impression of Lalaith is that she's innocent. A very tenuous theory might be that the wolves meant to sacrifice Rune the Day she voted for him, but failed to actually pull it off, and then decided to make her look really good by sacrificing him the next Day without her voting for him. Or maybe they didn't mean to sacrifice him, and the Day she voted for him, she didn't think anyone else would vote for him. But I kind of feel like I'm grasping at straws here.

I don't have the energy to analyze Firefoot (or Durelin, I guess I should analyze her too) right now. I'm getting tempted to forsake my gender-ratio plan and lynch Gurthang, because I found my suspicion of him increasing as I re-read the posts. In any case, I'll be back in some number of hours.

[Anguirel]

(This is the only post I'll be able to make today, and it'll be fairly short. I am marooned in London a day longer than I expected and have had to distract my father on a trip to get light-fitting and then hijack his laptop to get this far at all...)

Rune's death and guilt has the unhealthy effect of strengthening and confirming the suspicions (and prejudices, I suspect) I held yesterday. Being right is intellectually far more damaging than being wrong.

That said, I had a theory yesterday that Durelin might have performed a wolf for wolf vote. This now seems possible; yet how to explain her confusion over the Seer? That's sort of a cunning plan too far; it looks really genuine.

The other candidate for lynching last night was Sauce. It is not to my mind completely impossible that we had two wolves up for lynching last night; especially with the climate of dissension among the lupine ranks. Gurthang's role as executioner becomes prominent here. Did he suspect Rune of lovelorn treachery and so seal his fate? Is Sauce a lover-wolf who has just narrowly survived the velvet dagger of his erstwhile friends?

Caran makes a forceful case for Kath's innocence, but I still feel to some extent that her attitude is at odds with her frequently dodgy actions. Still, she has fallen on my suspicions list.

Finally...we should note that Diamond apparently attacked Sauce with honest intentions.

Hmmm.

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

Very quickly-Glirdan is the only unknown who attacked Sauce-so I am now for the first time harbouring suspicions of him.

Firefoot-I forgot to consider her just now. Could be an alternative to Gurth as executioner. Sauce also.

Kath sits on the fence far too often. Maybe genuine indecision...

Gurthang votes-genuine minority suspicions or Love-derived knowledge from Engels or Lalaith?

I am going to vote because I don't believe in not doing so, but I fear this may be a shot in the dark.

++FIREFOOT

Don't know what I'd do without her vote summaries but she has gone too long unconsidered.

This is one of those rare, grim occasions when I don't have time for poetry.

[Firefoot]

Thoughts about Durelin:

Day 1 - Banter with/vote for Nilp and continued jesting about the goose would be an easy way for a wolf to hide. She is around, but doesn't contribute much.

Day 2 - Her comment about the throw-away vote for Nilp, I don't see as having much significance. It might be honest, might not. This comment: Who said wolves can't be logical? ;) has never sat well with me for whatever reason. I'm not really getting anything from her musings about Jenny as hunter/not hunter. She votes for Holby without listing a reason; the only place she had previously mentioned her had been about a page ago: I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that. I'm not sure her reasoning is that great, but at least the vote wasn't out of the blue as I had supposed. Incidentally, her comment about Rune from the same post was: And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair... I could see this as either innocent or guilty.

Day 3 - She comes back with an explanation: I voted for Holby because I was much more certain that Lhuna was innocent. Lhuna was Lhuna, and not wolfish Lhuna, in my opinion. Fair enough, I suppose. In the same post she claims that she doubted Jenny had been the Hunter. Her suspects become Rune, Holby, Ang, and possibly Taliesin; she decided to leave Sauce off the list. She votes for Rune.

Day 4 - Me - (Scary thought: he's [Sauce] the innocent lover and knows no more about the wolves than most of us do... I wonder how much the wolf lover has told the innocent lover. Hm...)Durelin - Just goes to show you how important communication is in any relationship... :p This definitely just sent up warning bells in my head. Durelin's been dancing around Sauce for a while, he's always been just off her suspicion list... what if they're the lovers?

This comment of Durelin's is rather strange:Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet..... This definitely does not seem wolvish. What kind of wolf wouldn't know what was going on? And a little later:For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself... Same thing. Unless... someone paraphrased/told her what was going on and what needed to happen? Then she votes for Rune again

Day 5 - I didn't see anything particularly worthy of note.

Okay, going back to a Durelin/Sauce possibility. It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess. I would need to go back and look at Sauce's posts (oh, boy) to see what he's said about Durelin before I made up my mind, though.

[Firefoot]

Sauce on Durelin:

Day 1 - Durelin -- Shifty ninja-type. Can't understand a word she says. Lynch her, I say! She's fourth on his lynch list.

Day 2 - I am also wary of Diamond, Durelin and morm. This after going into fair detail about Nilp voters... never once mentioning her. This could explain his repeated suspicions that either Holby or I was a wolf - let's just draw attention to these other Nilp voters...

Day 3 - Durelin: Has acted completely how I would expect her to act (with the exception of a vote for me ; ) ). Can’t see anything suspicious about her. Inclined to trust (for now): Glirdan, Durelin, Rune, mormegil, TGWBS, Findesea

Day 4 - Durelin: I am pretty sure that she is innocent, of Wolvishness at least. She has been behaving erratically, which is precisely how I would expect an innocent Durelin to behave. I don’t think that her “eccentricity” would come across as quite so genuine if she were a Wolf trying to follow her usual pattern of behaviour.
Day 5 -The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang. But it's mine and Gurthang's that are most suspicious... Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote. Sauce:
The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. ;) OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved :D ).Durelin:
Awww...and you had my hopes up... :p !!! Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
...
Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?
I think that may have strengthened the case rather than broken it down. Sauce starts with suspicion on her, which slowly weakens until she is "probably innocent", and has even gone so far as joking with her about being the Lover.

I'll be away for a while now, but back in plenty of time to do more discussing...

[Lalaith]

Some really good analyses here.
Caran, your point about the Rune/Glirdan connection is interesting. (And your analysis of me makes me sound a right schoolmarm - how depressing)
Saucie's stuff is very impressive and persuasive - would a wolf/guilty party go to so much trouble? I can't help thinking they wouldn't (which is why I also absolved Diamond, ironically enough, for her Saucie attack).
But on the other hand, with Saucie, you just never know.
Firefoot - I too had noted the Durelin/Saucie connection. It could be significant, or it could just be nothing. Actually of the two I feel more worried about Durelin.

However, my chief worry today remains Gurthang for reasons already stated, with Glirdan as runner-up, partly due to his own disingenuous behaviour and partly due to the point Caran made.

[Kath]

To my critics: I know, I have a bad habit of forgetting all about the game until around 7, and then using what other people say rather than coming up with my own ideas. Tis why morm always ends up suspecting me.

Still, I have some time on my hands right now, so I shall go about doing a couple of those analyses I said I'd do, starting with Glirdan.

Post 12 - drunk sailor style, throws occupation based suspicion my way.

Post 27 - complains about the rum being gone (love that line :D ) and then says and eye should be kept on Gurthang, again all in drunk style though, so unlikely to be serious.

Post 40 - votes for me. Seems to be a random early Day 1 vote.

Post 106 - says Eomer's death wasn't a surprise as the Wolves wouldn't have wanted him around for long, which is a fair point.

Post 132 - gives a voting tally, says we should not look at Nilp voters now but wait until we see how they vote again. Thinks it is more likely that wolves would have picked up on the Eomer bandwagon than the Nilp one. His reasoning for not looking at the Nilp voters was that they were more likely to have random reasons and while this is true, I don't see why the wolves could not have come up with random reasons as well. Before Rune's death I would have said that it would be a very bold wolf who votes Eomer in the Day and then kills him in the Night, but it seems we've already had one of those, which may make TGWBS a wolf as well if the same 'oh they'd never do that' reasoning was applied.

Post 135 - Analyses Tali finding some things to be suspicious of. Those points aren't of much use now as Tali has been revealed as innocent, but there is something strange in the way Glirdan picks up on the seeming inconsistency between Tali's not wanting to vote Eomer and then doing it. It is possible to change your mind in an hour or so, seeing new posts and developing new ideas. Glirdan didn't seem to take that into account. In this post he also suddenly backtracks on his earlier decision not to look at the Nilp voters after this was challenged by morm. Perhaps a little hypocritical after the suspicion he just put on Tali for a seemingly similar thing.

Post 136 - analyses Rune and decides there is nothing supicious other than him purposefully bandwaggoning. This could be Glirdan analysing Rune to make sure he's mentioned him, and making sure to find mention some suspicion to serve him well if Rune ever died. Has a suspect list of Tali followed by Rune, presumably because they're the only people he looked at. Defends his analyses against Gurthang.

Post 139 - analyses Lhuna, finding nothing suspicious other than her vote for Eomer, which being Lhuna was likely due to history. Mentions that all the Eomer voters had been very quiet and suggests that is kept in mind, though why I'm not sure. Seems to be an attempt at causing suspicion where there is none.

Post 140 - analyses TGWBS, again finding nothing other than a comment about wanting to live in harmony with the wolves, obviously an in-character comment. This though causes TGWBS to jump up his list above Rune, who he seemed to have more reason for suspicion over. Again possibly Glirdan trying to keep Rune as a suspect but make sure he wouldn't get lynched.

Post 143 - analyses Diamond, and was the first to suggest the first poster is often wolvish. Doesn't like that she went after Eomer, but I think that was biased by hindsight. Then finds her less suspicious, before finding the reasoning behind her vote for Eomer very suspicious. I then become a little confused, as his list had two TGWBS's on it, one supposedly meant to be Diamond. Either way, again Rune is bumped down the list. Again defends his analyses, this time against Caran, saying it used to be his usual way. Did anyone ever check on that?

Post 146 - bit of banter with Diamond, saying that even if it is not true that wolves post first, she is still suspicious. Fair enough as his suspicion of her does not rest solely on that point.

Post 148 - again banter, this time with Caran, saying he wants to be seen as equal with everyone else. Could be a wolf trying to ensure a good level of suspicion, or one trying to ingratiate himself with people he knows to be innocent.

Post 193 - agrees that it would be interesting to see whether the wolves post within the first 10 posts (as Glirdan himself often does) but says no one will do it. It is possible that he has a bad record with that as a wolf, and doesn't wish people to do it in case it brings suspicion upon him, but that is rather tenuous. Says his vote for me was purely random based on occupation, I think in answer to morm though I can't work that out. Confused by TGWBS's 'Glirdan = Not sense. Good' post, understandable I suppose though the meaning seemed obvious. Or maybe I'm just too used to TGWBS. Finds Holby worth looking at due to her vote for Nilp, you know, those people you weren't going to look at? Anyway, has some good points and at this time is unlikely I think to have suspected her as Seer if he is a wolf, so it could just be trying to support suspicion of a known (to him) innocent. Starts to pull Rune back up his suspect list, perhaps due to real suspicion, perhaps due to needing to be seen to be noticing him.

Post 196 - does a list of how many posts each person has done and separates them into groups and highlights Eomer and Nilp voters, drawwing suspicions from it. I'm not sure how this works, as the groups aren't evenly split, and those he chooses as suspicious seem odd. While there are 3 Eomer voters in the first list he only picks two of them, deliberately ignoring TGWBS (possible protection?), and from the middle group he picks more Nilp voters than Eomer voters, even though he has previously stated that the former shouldn't be looked at yet. Decides to vote for an Eomer voter because 3 Nilp voters have already been voted for, and picks Lhuna over Tali.

Post 222 - says Jenny's death was random, but then argues against that, saying the wolves may have thought her to be the Seer. Bit odd, he seems almost to be arguing against the idea that Jenny's death was random, except that no one had actually mentioned it. In fact they'd had no opportunity to as he was the second poster that Day after TGWBS, and all he said was 'Alack'.

Post 237 - says he wasn't surprised Sauce would start to be suspected, nor that it was Di doing the suspecting. Says that he himself has been suspicious of him, odd as there hasn't been a single mention so far, but thinks he should be left alive as he is a very useful innocent. It's strange reasoning since most of us know the trials of a wolvish Sauce, and he is more dangerous when evil than helpful when good. Some banter with Rune over past games, again possibly just keeping up appearances, seeming quite happy to drop part of his suspicions. Explains why he asked TGWBS to explain his statement.

Post 244 - annoyed at lack of talking. Thinks morm has been getting too bold and then begins to build a case against him, finding his 'gunning' for just three people suspicious, especially since he is so certain over his suspects. Then develops the theory that both Ang and morm could be wolves, doing some wolf on wolf voting (disproved now by morm's death). Says Rune (what happened to the suspicion over him?) and my points make him inclined to suspect TGWBS, mostly due to his quietness.

Post 264 - defends himself against Tali, saying he isn't trying to lead the village but simply give his opinions. Well fair enough, but he hasn't half talked a lot. Also says he wasn't the only one unsurprised by Eomer's death, again in answer to Tali. Also defends his analyses of Lhuna and Rune, saying he had decided to find Eomer voters suspicious, but found those two the least suspicious of the 5. Strange reasoning, if you don't find someone suspicious, don't put them on your list. Has some odd reasoning over Sauce still being alive, that the wolves should have killed him the Night before. Yet earlier he has said it is likely the wolves thought Jenny a Gifted, so why would they choose someone less likely? Uses this reasoning to explain his suspicion of Sauce, something I really don't understand and think quite suspicious, as if he is trying to build up a case with nothing to use as foundations, but is determined to do it anyway. Could be an innocent, as most people end up suspecting Sauce eventually, but could be a wolf trying to cause people to suspect him. Also seems to be a rather sudden switch from thinking it would be better to leave him alive in case he's innocent.

Post 266 - votes morm on a gut suspicion, for being too bold. After the previous posts worrying over Sauce, it seems odd that he voted for morm instead. Perhaps he was more confident of getting a bandwagon behind morm than Sauce, which worked.

Post 316 - says he had thought Holby innocent but not the Seer. Why did he say this? There was no need for it, we know he didn't suspect her but pointing it out is odd. Also complains that she spoke about Sauce in her final post. Again mentions the dilemma over Sauce, whether to leave him alive in case innocent or to kill him in case guilty. Asks Diamond to analyse him, perhaps because he can't find the reasoning that would make a case, or because this way he knows it will be done by an innocent (presuming that Diamond is here) and so he can't be picked up on it later.

Post 336 - says Di's analysis has convinced him that Sauce is a wolf and Di is not, but that there could be some way the two are working together. He never makes a concrete statement. You think he does with the first bit but then always finds a way to challlenge it. Is inclined to think Ang innocent except for his theory that one of Ang and morm are wolves and since morm was proven innocent it would follow that Ang is a wolf. Then switches to Ang to Sauce being the wolves because they've been flying under the radar. Lots of random suspicion seemingly designed to keep Sauce in the frame.

Post 344 - analyses Ang, finding some of his early banter about killing the pirates odd. After this sees nothing suspicious, and can't work out why morm felt that way. Then suspects Ang for pointing out the obvious that the wolves would be in the bandwagons. Again hypocritical as Glirdan himself did that at the beginning of Day 2. After this though decides that Ang is innocent, though it is possible he is pulling a double bluff - again nothing concrete. Having lost one suspect, decides to look at me.

Post 351 - decides not to bother finishing his Ang analysis, either because he has decided he is innocent and can't build up a case, or because he is a fellow wolf and going any further would put too much suspicion on him. Switches to me, saying that I use other peoples views to form my suspicions (yup) and that I don't put out my own theories (often yup). So fair points there. Thinks Ang's vote for Eomer could be viewed as suspicious as it would make for a perfect defense if pulled up on it. Again some hypocrisy, as after mentioning that I use other people to form opinions, he does the same thing over Sauce via Di.

Post 356 - votes Sauce, having gone against his earlier idea that it is better to leave him alive in case innocent due to Di's analysis.

Post 365 - again an early post, saying he thinks Di the lover (overexcitement from a wolf glad to be rid of the wildcards?) but finds Fin's death odd. I don't like these questions over why people died, they seem too much like a wolf trying to gauge the reaction from the village so that he can later agree with it.

Post 368 - claims memory loss over Fin being a known innocent in the manner of Durelin. If he knows her to be innocent then it would be a good tactic. Still arguing that Di was the Lover.

Post 391 - says his suspicion of Sauce has eased after the analyses, perhaps because Di is no longer there to aid him in his crusade, or indeed because they are fellow wolves and he feels that he has put enough pressure on to be safe if Sauce is lynched. Again mentions suspicion of me for not using my own reasoning. Still some suspicion of Ang because of what morm said, ahem, hypocrisy again I feel. Nervous of Tali and Caran because they could be the innocent Lover, a fair point. Thinks Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent, though we seem to have no reasoning for this.

Post 392 - officially clears Tali, the first concrete thing I have seen from Glirdan all game, so that in itself seems odd to me. Tali was cleared for not defending anyone, but he's a clever player, and it is possible that he is flying so completely under the radar so as not to incriminate his wolvish comrade.

Oh thank goodness the boy's stopped talking! Or should I say the wolf, as I have become rather convinced that he is one. I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy. He accuses people of doing something and suspects them for it, whilst doing the same thing himself. He has no concrete suspicions at all. He attacks often with gut feelings rather than logic, and he has not been at all consistent over any of his suspicions.

Now that took so long I am going to have to go. I hope to be back to analyse Ang or Sauce or both, though I think my ideas on them will be based on whether Glirdan is innocent or a wolf.

[Firefoot]

Actually of the two I feel more worried about Durelin. Me too. Since (if they were lovers) they would both die anyway, I would definitely say lynch Durelin. Sauce (if innocent) is way too helpful to lynch and then be wrong about. Of course, it's possible that he's a wolf and not affiliated with Durelin, but I have hitherto thought him mostly innocent and am looking at connections. As for him going through all this work... well, if he astounds us all into thinking him innocent, I reckon it works... :rolleyes:

[Durelin]

It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess.

Cause of course I am completely unable to feel out who the wolves are in any situation on my own... :rolleyes:

Excuse my hormonal rage, but really, I'm offended that you suggest that I need SPaM feeding me clues to do anything right... :p

Go ahead, lynch me for my indignation.

I feel like going with Ang on Firefoot right now, but... ;)

Glirdan's been bumped up to my main suspect because of Gurthang's wailings about the gallows. I don't think a wolf would pay so much attention to the fact that a good number of people are suspicious of him, particularly when there aren't yet any votes for him. Also, Glirdan's latest analysis of Taliesin is a little...random, at least to me. Trying to turn eyes back to the known innocents is indeed a little odd at this point.

Alrighty then...my next post will probably include my vote.

Edit: Cross-posted with Firefoot.

[Firefoot]

Just so you all know where my suspicions are at right now:

Glirdan
Durelin
Gurthang, Ang, Lalaith (about equal)
Sauce, TGWBS
Kath
Caran, Taliesin

Right now, vote will probably go to Glirdan or Durelin, depending on others' thoughts (I'm still trying to figure out just how likely my theory is... on one hand, it's the only theory for a lover pair so far...).

[Caranlondien]

Hmm. I feel completely lost. Of the remaining males, I'm most suspicious of Gurthang and Glirdan. The females, I just can't decide on. If I were to go by a Sherlock Holmes-ish process of elimination, I'd be left with Firefoot. But I have to admit I could have missed something about Lalaith or Kath. And I'm afraid I may be too hasty in eliminating Durelin from my suspicions.

So far our only vote is Anguirel for Firefoot.

I'll be around for a while yet, so I'll hold off on voting.

[Lalaith]

I'm thinking along similar lines, Caran, but I would rather lynch Gurthang. Firstly because he still seems more suspicious to me - that gallows business doesn't convince me, much as I love Captain Jack - but also because it will have the added benefit of telling us something about Saucie.
He (Saucie) incriminated Gurthang fairly comprehensively in his post....it would be a very strange wolf-on-wolf thing to do when they were one down.

[Durelin]

but also because it will have the added benefit of telling us something about Saucie. He (Saucie) incriminated Gurthang fairly comprehensively in his post....

It would be nice to find out about Saucie...

But I'm going to go with who I feel is a wolf:

++Glirdan

[Gurthang]

Wow. I thought it'd be a one horse race toDay. Well, not like a race can really go anywhere on a ship. Sorry I wasn't here earlier. I didn't have time to make a post before work like I usually do.

The female thing is very interesting. A good thing to look into, I think. Although, there are a couple gaps. The possibility remains that Caran is the ordo-Lover. Also, since I still think myself likely to be lynched toDay, it would be a rather risky thing to pursue. Eleven people left toDay. We lynch one, an innocent, and that leaves 10. Nine after toNight. If you lynch one of the unknown females each of the next two Days, and even get the Lover or Lover-wolf, that leaves us with 4 left the next Day... and still with two wolves left, so we lose. I like the idea in theory, but I don't think we have enough time left for it to work.

I'll be back about a half hour before the deadline, as usual. Accompanying me will be my vote, also as usual. More likely than anything it will be for Glirdan, as he's looking the most wolvish of anyone.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff; explains biblical reference.

#77: Votes Nilp because otherwise we'll never figure him out.

Day Two

#107: Wonders what Nilp was thinking. Wonders why the wolves killed Eomer, a prime lynching candidate.

#138: Explains her vote for Nilp, says it was senseless but any vote at that time would have been.

#145: Curious about morm's early vote for Ang. Thinks if he's right he'll be killed as the Seer, if wrong the wolves are laughing with glee.

#164: Labels Durelin borderline. Thinks Caran, Holby, Fin, and Lhuna innocent.

#183: No verdict yet on Kath. Thinks Jenny innocent, could be Hunter. Wary of Lalaith. Borderline on Diamond. Thinks if Gurthang is anything, he's a lover. Says Form seems detached. Borderline on Glirdan, thinks Rune is too unsure to be a wolf. No idea on morm. Ang is on her suspect list, but not a major suspect. tgwbs is borderline leaning innocent.

#192: Thinks one of the people who voted for neither Nilp nor Eomer is probably a wolf. It seems that Lalaith is her main suspect.

#204:Yeah... not comfortable with this at all. I'm here till the deadline; still not quite decided about my vote. Formen and Lalaith are both likely candidates but if I have to vote Lhuna or Holby to save myself I will, even if I won't like it.

#214: Votes Lalaith. Glad she didn't have to vote Holby or Lhuna to save herself.

#218: Holby's vote doesn't really surprise me... even if she is an innocent. When it's yourself, a known innocent (at least to yourself) versus someone else who you only think is innocent... well...

Day Three

#228: With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet...

#246: Says she had suspected morm might be the Seer, but since he was switching around in his suspicions he probably wasn't. Defends her vote, doesn't know what to think about morm's boldness, wants to look at voting record.

#256: Defends vote again. Says she may not be back, votes Durelin.

Day Four

#299: Looks at voting from yesterDay, thinks it unlikely we have bold wolves because there are few opportunities for wolf-on-wolf votes.

#300: Notes that wolves nearly always vote.

#305: Notes that in more recent games wolves nearly always vote.

#307: Discounts theory that SpM is innocent because he went after Holby during the Day instead of at Night. Thinks he is innocent for other reasons, though.

#328: Notes that known not-wolves don't know any more than the rest of the ordos. Thinks Gurthang brought up a good point about Rune.

#338: Takes Durelin, Kath, and tgwbs off her list of suspects. Doubts the Lovers will be doing much accusing of each other.

#342: Suspicious of Rune.

#352: Doesn't want to vote off a list of doom. Becoming suspicious of Glirdan.

#359: Votes Rune, who already has 4 votes, compared to SpM's 3.

Day Five

#393: Tells Glirdan not to worry about me or Taliesin being one of the lovers. Thinks Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious. Proposes using gender-ratio to find the Lovers.

#399: Thoughts on Durelin develops SpM-Durelin lover theory.

#400: Considers the SpM side of this possible lover-duo.

#403: Considers lynching Durelin; would prefer to lynch her than SpM.

#405: Lists suspicions:
Glirdan
Durelin
Gurthang, Ang, Lalaith (about equal)
Sauce, TGWBS
Kath
Caran, Taliesin

------------------------

Nothing overly suspicious, nothing overly innocent. Maybe I'm just shot. Oy vey. I have to swab the deck (coughmowthelawncough), so I can't hang around much longer.

[Caranlondien]

I actually will be able to get back near deadline if I get on with my deck swabbing now, so I can continue thinking and try to keep the voting on course at the end.

The voting so far:
1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)

[the guy who be short]

Sorry for coming in late. I was checking out Tolkien's University.

I don't really have time to do anything except steal other people's theories, like Kath.

So, I'm suspicious of Gurthang, Firefoot. I think SpM and lal are innocent.

[Lalaith]

I'm going out now, and won't be back until well after deadline. So I will cast my vote now, for the reasons I stated above, and I hope that whatever happens tonight will be the best for the village.
++GURTHANG

[the guy who be short]

++Gurthang

Not sure if I can be back later, so it's best to vote now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hola friends and fiends! I am back.

Some jumbled ramblings, based on the events that have passed toDay since I was last here.

Glirdan’s suggestion to look at the known non-Wolves to see if one of them might be the innocent Lover is of concern as it would waste time that should be spent looking for Wolves. He also seems to be assuming that one of them definitely is.

But I get the impression that Glirdan is being far too careless to be a Wolf.

Firefoot’s suggestion that gender may help us seems to be directing us towards the females, which speaks in her favour as there are less unknown females than males. Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay, so it by no means clears her (Firefoot) in my mind. My picks from the “ladies list” would be Kath and Firefoot.

Some reference has been made toDay again to Jenny’s suspect list, but I don't think that it will actually help us much in eliminating possible Wolves. Form was her most likely target and, since it is better from the Wolves’ persepective to kill the Hunter off sooner rather than later, I think that they would have been willing to take the risk of killing her, even if one or more of them was on her list. My ancestor and his Wolvish comrade (an ancestor of Caran’s brother) did much the same when Wolves.

Kath’s analysis of Glirdan is rather damning, I feel. A real hatchet job. Glirdan’s suspicions are all over the place. He is doing a lot of talking but not really going anywhere as his suspicions keep changing. Then again, I am wary of this particular analyser, Kath. I tend to think that Glirdan is the Wolves' other target for lynching toDay (with Durelin) and that a Kath-Wolf has been doing her utmost to bring this about (and good job, too, may I say ;) ).

And, although there are many good points in Kath's analysis, this one is breathtaking:


I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy.Ooh! How can you say that? He was the original flipper flopper!

Another excellent analysis, this time by Caran, a relatively trusted source, with Firefoot as her subject. And despite Caran's conclusion, I think that it makes Firefoot look rather suspicious, and thus strengthens my own suspicions of her. She defends her votes rather a lot. She has appeared outwardly helpful, but some of the things that she has said look designed to spread confusion (for example, about the Wolves’ motives for killing Eomer). She labelled four unknown innocents as innocent in #164 (if a Wolf, she would know). This and some of the other things that she has said (for example that she thought morm might be the Seer) look to me like they might be calculated to make her look good without giving too much away.

That said, Gurthang still looks the most Wolfish to me, based on my analyses posted earler toDay. And I don't buy his "being resigned to being lyched" act. It's most likely a ploy designed to try to save himself. My vote is most likely to end up being cast in his direction.

Back later with my vote.

[Caranlondien]

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)

As if you couldn't tell that yourselves... :rolleyes: I just have to have everything spelled out explicitly, I'm compulsive that way.

I'm going to look back over Gurthang and Glirdan myself, since I seem to be on an analysis roll. I do wish I felt more certain about the women of the village, because I'd like to take advantage of this gender-ratio while we have it. But I don't find any of them overly suspicious.

Cross-posted with SpM... who I so very much want to trust, because I'm agreeing with everything he's saying.

[Taliesin]

Why hello there, you're favourite known innocent is back! :p
Erm.. nevermind that.

Some quick thoughts:

I want to thank Kath for her Glirdan analysis. I've been watching him the last days as has been and is one of the most likely wolves in my opinion. The analysis strengthened this suspicion. I'm confident Glirdan is a wolf.

Firefoot brings up a great point about the Durelin / Sauce relation. Sauce does a very good job of keeping Durelin between the odd 'I'm watching her' and the 'She seems innocent'. Never really confirming her innocent, but never giving any theory about her wolfishness either.

Firefoot’s suggestion that gender may help us seems to be directing us towards the females, which speaks in her favour as there are less unknown females than males. Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay, so it by no means clears her (Firefoot) in my mind. My picks from the “ladies list” would be Kath and Firefoot.

Again, Saucepan Man here defends Durelin trying to clear her of any suspicion, while throwing suspicion on two other unknown females.

I'll be right back with a list of suspicions.

[Glirdan]

Well, because my butt's fried (along with my brain :rolleyes: ), I'm not even going to bother defending myself. I'm going to cast my vote for

++Saucy

He's still far too suspicious in my eyes. That and Taliesin has brought up a good point in his post. Saucy has been protecting Durelin far too much. And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?

[Taliesin]

He's still far too suspicious in my eyes. That and Taliesin has brought up a good point in his post. Saucy has been protecting Durelin far too much. And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?

Actually the honor belongs to Firefoot
:) I'm merely copying her point.

[Kath]

Hmm, not sure that I'll be back again before the deadline so:

++GLIRDAN

For the reasons I gave earlier in my analysis.

It took me so long to do that thing that I have no time to do Sauce or Ang right now. I'll try to get them done for tomorrow but I just know they're going to have talked as much :rolleyes:

[Caranlondien]

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

Left to vote: Caran, Firefoot, SpM, Taliesin, and Gurthang

I'm tempted to go with SpM's comment that Glirdan is being too careless to be a wolf. Gurthang I've been suspicious of for a while now. I wish I could read Firefoot better...

[Taliesin]

Durelin -- I thought her innocent for a long while, but now I’m not so sure. Firefoot’s point about her being the innocent lover is really convincing. I don’t suspect her of being a wolf, since she actually started the Rune bandwagon yesterday and voted for Glirdan today. She might very possibly be the innocent lover, of Sauce in this case.

Caranlondien – Known innocent. Not much more to add. I don’t suspect her of having a furry lover at all.

Kath – Pretty much sealed Glirdan’s fate I would think with her extremely helpful analysis. However since Glirdan was already a likely candidate, could be a wolf trying to look innocent for the following days. Not cleared of suspicion yet.

Lalaith – Seems honest about her concerns. I must admit she’s been off my radar for the last days. I think her innocent.

Gurthang – I’m suspicious of him aswell, there’s a reason obviously he’s been gathering votes. I don’t have anything to add besides what others have said about him.

Saucepan Man – Extremely helpful player. The problem lies within there aswell. Because he’s so helpful, people get scared to lynch him or even voice suspicion about him. I have to agree, it’s true, killing off an innocent Saucy is a bad move. But he worries me, yet again today with the case against Durelin and Sauce, it’s becoming more and more obvious that he is a wolf. Besides, our ranger has been dead since day 1, why is Saucy still alive? ( Yes I fully realize, it’s not fair to base suspicion on previous accomplishments and lynching someone because of they’re fame is unfair. But this is another thing that bugs me… ).

Glirdan – Wolf. I’m pretty damn sure of that. For reasoning I want to refer to Kath’s post (#402) and my own a few days ago (#257).

Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short) – I can’t say he worries me at the moment. Seems innocent.

If I make it through the Night, I'll take a look at Anguirel and Firefoot tomorrow.

So, and I'm going to shamelessly copy Saucy's form :D .

Possible Wolves: SpM, Glirdan, Gurthang.
Could go either way: Anguirel, Firefoot, Kath.
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS.
Innocents: Caran and Durelin (SpM's lover).

++ Glirdan

Let me be right on this one, please :) .

edit: very obvious spelling error :rolleyes:

[Firefoot]

Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay This is the second time he has used that phrase toDay: "of wolvishness at least." Doesn't want to lie? Also, I've been suspecting Durelin since Day 3, so my going after her toDay shouldn't be suspicious in itself - I remember that you absolved Durelin of suspecting Rune because she had been suspecting him for a while...(coughdoublestandardscough).

I'm going to be here until the end, at any rate. Still haven't decided who I'm going to vote for.

[Firefoot]

++Glirdan

I'm just going to go with my original suspicion... I don't suspect Gurthang enough to vote for him, and Sauce will only be lynched if every vote but his goes to him. I'm doubtful of that.

Firefoot – 1 (Ang 1)
Glirdan – 4 (Durelin 2, Kath 6, Taliesin 7, Firefoot 8)
Gurthang – 2 (Lalaith 3, TGWBS 4)
Sauce – 1 (Glirdan 5)

[Caranlondien]

I'll be very interested toMorrow (or you all should be, if I'm dead) about that vote of Firefoot's. It's made it impossible to lynch anyone else, given that Gurthang would hardly vote for himself. I'm just pointing this out in case Firefoot and Gurthang are the lovers...

[Caranlondien]

For what it's worth, here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I was planning to vote this way, but wanted to wait and see the votes of others.

[The Saucepan Man]

Glirdan looks to me to be the fall guy here.

Gurthang is quite possibly a Wolf. But Firefoot almost certainly is.

+ + FIREFOOT

[Gurthang]

Interesting. I'm at least glad that others are suspicious of Glirdan, too. Maybe I'm not doing as bad as I thought... although, it isn't certain yet that we're right. Be just my luck. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I've been thinking more about the female thing. Really, if we want to do it, we'd have to start toDay. I'd prefer Firefoot or Lalaith. Firefoot, well, I guess I'm like Kath and Guy in that respect. But Lalaith being the ordo-lover just seems to fit. Although, we're winding down, so if we want to do it, it'd have to be pretty quick. (EDIT: This doesn't make sense now. See Note below.)


Well, seeing as everyone has voted already, no point in me waiting either. Especially since mine doesn't make a bit of difference now. :rolleyes:

++Glirdan

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

Note: there were about five votes since I started this post. Had change the voting list like four times.

[Glirdan]

Ha! You're all in for a surprise. I'm not a Wolf. However, that doesn't matter anymore. But heed my advice: Lynch the man with the pans!! May Eru have mercy on your souls!

[Gurthang]

Just saw an error in the list I just placed. Should read 2 instead of 1 after Firefoot in the line with my vote.

Glirdan, we'll see. I really hope you're lying.

[Cailín]

Day is now over. :)

[Caranlondien]

Glirdan looks to me to be the fall guy here.

Gurthang is quite possibly a Wolf. But Firefoot almost certainly is.

+ + FIREFOOT
I think you may be right... I'll probably die toNight, so I'm just saying it here, I'm strongly suspicious of Firefoot and Gurthang now.

Edit: cross-posted with Glirdan, who seems to have confirmed SpM's theory that he's not, in fact, a wolf.

Edit2: oops, sorry Moddess!

[Cailín]

At the start of the day, Glirdan had accidentally stumbled into Weslamond's and Pirate Roberta's hidden supply of rum. Seeing as they were both deceased and had never tried to kill him (well, not really), he decided he might as well consider himself their unofficial heir. With a satisfied smile, he confiscated the bottles and brought them up to the deck with him, now considering himself properly armed against any threat that might come up this day.

After properly dumping Fin's body (according to her personal health regulations), Sir Horatio immediately launched into a series of passionate speeches about the guilt of several of his fellow passengers. It was almost enough to silence the rest of the passengers. Except one.

"*hic*," commented Glirdan reprovingly. He took another swig of rum and eyed Taliesin suspiciously. "You innocent? *hic*. Nonsensical."

The others tried and failed to ignore him.

"*hic*," continued Glirdan. "You know, *hic*, Fin is the Lover of Weslamond and *hic* Sir Horatio is their err… dog, yes, *hic*, I say we lynch them all."

"You are aware that two of those you mentioned are already death?" inquired Lalaith.

"*hic*?"

Kath rolled her eyes. "I am so tired of him. He's obviously a wolf hiding under perpetual intoxication."

"*hic*," slurred Glirdan. "Am no wolf." He pointed at Sir Horatio with his half empty bottle of rum.

"I agree," said Taliesin.

"Glirdan's guilty," said Durelin.

"Am. No. Wolf," stated Glirdan confidently. "Also, am not intoxicated."

Funnily, none of the passengers seemed ready to believe him. The poor drunken sailor, lying slumped on the deck, was soon surrounded by the entire crowd, staring at him menacingly.

"You stole all the rum!" yelled Caranlondien.

"Yes, why is the rum gone?" plagiarised Gurthang.

"*hic*," said Glirdan questionably. "It's right there. We can all share."

With an engaging smile, he handed the bottle to Firefoot, who was standing nearest.

"Liquor is evil," Firefoot lectured. She stared at the bottle for a second and then swung it in the air, aiming for Glirdan's head. As soon as the bottle hit its target, the passengers heard a sickening crack and Glirdan lay dead, still smiling. Of course, they should have known that drunks are awfully bad at keeping secrets. Glirdan had none. He was as he appeared.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

Never drink rum, children. It's very bad for you.




~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5
Glirdan - ordinary passenger, struck down by liquor at the end of Day 5


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Night 6 has now started. Bla-di-bla, you know what to do.

[Nogrod]

Caranlodien was having a nasty feeling that she would be the one tonight. But then again, what reason to live had a bartender when all that could have been tended was lost? And what about this ship of terrors: could someone call this living anyway? She frowned as she descended to the hold, cursing Glirdan and feeling sorry for him at the same time. But even as she wasn’t so much afraid of death as such in these circumstances, she was a bit worried about whether it would hurt. Had he left just one barrel... and I could get really drunk, reeally drunk. Then I wouldn’t feel anything.

She took a look around the hold. Alas! There was one small barrel still left! But to her disappointment she had to settle with quite an empty one. Who cares! Little is better than nothing, she thought and took a considerable draught straight from the barrel. Let them come, let them come...

And surely Caran was right. The wolves came. Caran was sitting in the corner of the hold with the almost empty rum-barrel in her arms as they slowly approached, their wild eyes gleaming and their breath stinking incomprehensibly foul for yards away.

“Wethinks you were talking in the evening that you wished for a Sherlok Holmes-ish process of elimination concerning the females on board. You remember that?” asked the biggest one of the wolves.

“W-w-ell, ye-s”, Caran managed to mumble. She had expected them to come, she had prepared herself to this all night. Nonetheless, she fas terrified of the hairy monsters presence. Not to say that she was totally perplexed by the biggest wolf’s question.

“We love to fulfill people’s wishes”, grinned the smallest one, revealing her terribly sharp teeth.

“You will just have to deduct what it means that we will grant you a Sherlok Holmes-ish process of elimination of females”, hissed the third one, staring unrelentlessly to Caran in the eye.

“But, but there’s only me and you here!” Caran exclaimed panickingly.

“Bingo!” howled the smallest one. “You made the first! Of the females you are the one to be eliminated tonight”, it added triumphantly.

“Promising student” the third one commented, accompanying the smallest one.

Suddenly the biggest one grasped Caran from her hair and yanked her up with brutal force. It roared to her ear: “You listen carefully!” Simultaneosly it threw Caran against the wall. Caran thought flashingly that she had broken at least a couple of bones. The pain was just excruciating. The biggest wolf took a step towards her. “You see the barrel there. You will be in it soon.” It said and picked the rum-barrel, holding it before her painstricken eyes.

“So how you will fit into that small barrell?” asked the smallest one who had sneaked beside the biggest one. “There’s some inferences to make”, it grinned maliciously.

“Remember you have two left, the process and the elimination”, called the third, hoisting a mincing machine it had picked from the shelf. “Here’s a hint for you!” it almost laughed it’s last words.

The mincing machine was just too much for Caran and she fainted.

“Bad stock these youngsters today” commented the the biggest one frowning.

“Yeah, can’t stand everyday household utensils”, grimaced the smallest one.

“And fear simple inferences too”, the third one was already laughing out openly.

“Allright. Let’s cut the crap and do something”, said the biggest one and threw the barrel to the smallest one. It cut Caran’s throat with it’s fangs and then poured all her blood carefully in to the barrel the smallest one had opened. The third one came with the mincer and then they minced the rest of her.

“Processing...”, grinned the third one while they minced her.

“Eliminating...”, smiled the smallest one as they threw the rest that could not be fitted into the barrel to the sea.

In the morning the passengers found Caran missing, but there was no body anywhere either.

But there was a small rum-barrel on the deck. Taliesin seemed delighted with the sight and ran to it: “Look, Glirdan didn’t drink it all! Maybe we should take a sip each and think about this afterwards.” He took the barrel and opened the cork and immediately felt the smell coming from it turning his bowels upside down. “I guess I’ve found her” he mumbled and dropped the barrel. He threw up before reaching the railing...

----------------------------------

Captain Cailín's Log (revisited)

Never drink rum, children. It's very bad for you.

----------------------------------

~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5
Glirdan - ordinary passenger, struck down by liquor at the end of Day 5
Caranlondien - ordinary passenger, poured and minced into a barrell of rum during Night6

~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Day6 starts now. Carpe diem!

[the guy who be short]

So. I would go over everything my chief suspects, Gurthang and Firefoot, have said, but I'm far too busy.

[Gurthang]

When I was waiting for Day to start, I noticed something towards the end of the Day yesterday that caught my eye.

That said, Gurthang still looks the most Wolfish to me, based on my analyses posted earler toDay. And I don't buy his "being resigned to being lyched" act. It's most likely a ploy designed to try to save himself. My vote is most likely to end up being cast in his direction.

Back later with my vote.
And then,


Glirdan looks to me to be the fall guy here.

Gurthang is quite possibly a Wolf. But Firefoot almost certainly is.

+ + FIREFOOT

I'm just wondering, was there anything specific that changed your mind, Saucepan?

I think it might be relevant to note that we have 9 people left on the ship, and 4 among us do not have everyone's best interests at heart. Not a good situation. We really need to get a wolf toDay.

[Durelin]

Bleh.

Lynch me. I can't believe I (seemingly) started a bandwagon.

And you'll probably really want to lynch me now, because of what I'm about to say.

I'm feeling that Firefoot is a wolf.

...Yep, I'm agreeing with Sauce again.

[Lalaith]

Glirdan got five votes so not everyone who voted for him can have had bad motivations. It would of course be a lot easier to work out just what was going on yesterday with the Glirdan bandwaggon if we knew the status of the other lynch candidates.

Taliesin is now our only remaining known innocent. It is interesting that the wolves killed the two female innocents first. Are they trying to encourage us for some reason to carry out the female-lynching plan? Was Caran considered a better kill for some other reason, or was it just coin-tossing? I don't know - I'm tired and I'm going to bed. I'll be back tomorrow morning with better thoughts, I hope.

[Durelin]

And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?

And of course I would if he wasn't my 'Lover,' whether I suspected him or not. :rolleyes:

Go down the list of who I haven't voted for and I doubt SPaM's the only one on it that's still alive...

Sorry! I promise that's the last thing I have to say about the absurd 'Lover' idea concerning myself (hopefully).

[Firefoot]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Sauce is a wolf. I'm not at all comfortable with Durelin. Or Lal and Kath. However, I think it's likely that only one of Lal and Kath is a wolf, since it was Lal who pointed out that wolves don't often vote - if I was absolving one of her cohorts, I don't think she would have objected. I'm probably more suspicious of Lal than Kath right now.

I just don't have much clue what to think about the remaining male members. On one hand, Gurthang has never really appeared suspicious to me, but I'm wondering if I haven't just been letting him slide along, since everyone else pretty much has been suspicious of him. TGWBS and Ang I've never been able to get a good hold on.

I guess the only bright patch in this whole situation is that one of the bad guys counts for the good guys team... so even if we screw up today, we're not dead yet. :rolleyes: Surely, with a 50-50 shot at catching a wolf, we ought to be able to do something?

[The Saucepan Man]

Bah! I deduced that the Wolves would be gunning for poor hapless Glirdan. I am rather surprised that he attracted quite so many votes though. Looks like all three Wolves and the innocent Lover, plus one innocent, voted for him (in addition to Caran). If I’m right, it means that they were under pressure, which is good.

No surprise about Caran's death, though I am saddened by it, as she was showing good sense.

Some points to pick up on from yesterDay:


Firefoot brings up a great point about the Durelin / Sauce relation. Sauce does a very good job of keeping Durelin between the odd 'I'm watching her' and the 'She seems innocent'. Never really confirming her innocent, but never giving any theory about her wolfishness either …

… Again, Saucepan Man here defends Durelin trying to clear her of any suspicion, while throwing suspicion on two other unknown females.Make your mind up. Am I "never confirming her innocent" or "trying to clear her of suspicion"? Actually, over the last few Days, I have made it pretty clear that I think Durelin innocent. I harboured some doubts as to whether she might be the innocent Lover, but they are now cleared.

This is the second time he has used that phrase toDay: "of wolvishness at least." Doesn't want to lie?This is risible. I am not Feanor of the Peredhil. I can assure you that, if I was Durelin’s Lover, I would be doing a much better job of hiding it. I would certainly not be conspicuously defending her.

Looks like the Wolves will probably be gunning for Durelin and me toDay. Fellow remaining innocents, you have a choice. Either you trust me or you die. It's as simple as that.


Possible Wolves: SpM, Glirdan, Gurthang.
Could go either way: Anguirel, Firefoot, Kath.
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS.
Innocents: Caran and Durelin (SpM's lover).How ridiculous to suggest that the three remaining Wolves are likely to be male, given that the one we killed was male. But rather convenient if you are the innocent Lover, which of course you are Taliesin, aren’t you. You have shown far too little sense to be wholly innocent and, since you are clearly not a Wolf, the conclusion is obvious.


I'm just wondering, was there anything specific that changed your mind, Saucepan?Simple. By the end of the Day, I was more sure of Firefoot being a Wolf than I was of you.


I think it might be relevant to note that we have 9 people left on the ship, and 4 among us do not have everyone's best interests at heart. Not a good situation. We really need to get a wolf toDay.We should have got a Wolf yesterDay. But I would like to note, for the benefit of the Lovers, that they better start helping us innocents to catch some Wolves, or they don’t have much chance of winning the game either.

Anyway, this is how it is:

Wolves: Firefoot, Kath. Gurthang
Innocent Lover: Taliesin
Innocents: SpM, TGWBS, Lalaith, Durelin

I am not 100% sure about Gurthang being a Wolf, and therefore not completely certain of the innocence of Anguirel or TGWBS.

I suspect that Firefoot is probably Taliesin's Lover, although I am by no means certain. It could be Kath.

In any event, I think that we should lynch either Firefoot or Kath toDay. My choice would be Firefoot. So, without further ado:

+ + FIREFOOT

That's how certain I am.

Who knows? If I am right about Firefoot being the Wolf Lover, perhaps her fellow Wolves will vote for her.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Firefoot, whose latest post just makes me all the more certain that I am right.

[Kath]

*sigh* I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will.

Other than Sauce my suspicions lie with TGWBS and Durelin. TGWBS because, despite his claims of 6th form, I know can participate more than he is doing. Such quietness with a seemingly fair excuse would be a wonderful thing to hide under. Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

So, that's three to do. At least two are going to be a bit shorter :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will.Ah well, if you want to take a short cut, you can use Diamond's analysis of me for part of it. It's pretty damning. And that's how you want it to turn out, isn't it? Just like your analysis of Glirdan. :rolleyes: :D

[Kath]

For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely.

[The Saucepan Man]

For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely.Of course it's unlikely. You know that I am innocent, yet want to portray me as anything but. You have just given yourself away there, m'dear. Only a Wolf would pre-judge the outcome of her analysis. :rolleyes:

[Kath]

I don't think that's true. Think about it, Diamond was an ordo yet her whole analysis was clouded by a preconceived view that you were a wolf. Your suspicions are based on the opinion that I am a wolf, so what I do is tainted by that suspicion.

Why am I even arguing with you? You're convinced, it won't help.

[Taliesin]

Woah.. well... :eek: . I was convinced Glirdan was a wolf. I'm not very suprised by Caranlondien's death, as I'm really not making sense at all. This is not the first time I think I see a wolf in someone who turns out to be innocent this game...

Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce.
I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this?

I'm going to sleep right now, but I'm hoping Kath can point us on some real evidence on Saucepan Man that convinces the rest of you aswell. But honestly, I'm already convinced. Trying to make me look like the innocent lover is exactly what I expected the wolves to do.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce.
I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this?Taliesin, if I am wrong about you, all I can say is that you have got it all wrong - just like you did with Glirdan. You need to rethink, or we are going to lose.

But I rather think that I am right. In which case, you should know that I'm not a Wolf. So why bother with me? You want to think about killing a real Wolf, so that you and your furry paramour have a chance of winning.

[Kath]

TGWBS:
Post 63 - in character talk with a vote for Eomer born out of that talk. A very early vote, though there was some reasoning for that as he said he had to go out.

Post 158 - indicated trust of Sauce and Glirdan, with some reasoning, and said we shouldn't look at either the Nilp or Eomer voters because that is what the wolves want us to do. Thinking from the wolves point of view can be helpful, but to so utterly disregard an option isn't, especially since we have now seen that a wolf was indeed in one of those bandwagons.

Post 221 - looks like a bit of facetiousness, says he'd help out if he were more conscious. Well not exactly helpful, and not even that late when he said it.

Post 225 - explains his not sense comment and says he'll be back after sleep.

Post 267 - apologises for being late. Finds morm suspicious because morm thinks he is behaving oddly, and TGWBS is saying that if he were a wolf he would not be behaving oddly, he would he behaving like he would as an ordo so as to avoid suspicion. It's a fair, in rather confusing, point, except that what a perfect bluff that would make! To be able to say, 'of course I'm not a wolf, would I be making myself so obvious if I were'? I believe that TGWBS could be such a bold wolf, I am not sure that he would be one right now due to the time constraints he is under. Doesn't suspect Caran for using the same reasoning as morm because she hasn't played with him so often. Puts suspicion on me for not taking his 6th form duties into account. That's because sure, it's a lot of work, but it isn't that much. There are people playing who work far later into the evening yet are still getting more input in. Joking comment to Sauce.

Post 269 - votes for morm because of some suspicion and because it's traditional. Not a great bit of reasoning for a vote, especially when not Day 1, but at least there is some.

Post 276 - points out some hypocrisy on morm's part, though claims it is not meant to throw suspicion on him. Odd after voting for him.

Post 292 - says Holby was foolish to reveal as morm would have died first anyway, but thanks her for it anyway. Well, that comment could be taken either way but the sentiment seemed genuine.

Post 294 - after Day end post immediately suggesting the known innocents lead the village from now on. This has worked in previous villages and so was a good suggestion, except for the possibility that one of them was the innocent Lover, which I don't think he took into account at the time.

Post 327 - pleads that the known innocents draw up lists to vote from.

Post 346 - again proposes the list idea, saying that the three will be absolutely objective. Well, no. There possibility that one of the three could be the innocent Lover is still there, and their opinions will have been influenced by those of the rest of the village. Also argues with Gurthang a little over a difference in opinion.

Post 349 - creates his own lists for the innocents based on their suspicions and votes for Gurthang because of a feeling and because he appeared on all three lists. A little subjective as they didn't categorically state that these were their suspicions, he drew them from their posts.

Post 412 - again apologises for lateness and says he will have to emulate me and steal other peoples theories, deciding to suspect Gurthang and Firefoot based on them, presumably using the reasoning previously mentioned.

Post 414 - votes Gurthang, again I'm presuming based on others reasoning, as he may not be back later.

Post 435 - says he would look at Gurthang and Firefoot as they are his chief suspects but he is too busy. Helpful that :rolleyes:


Well, I must say I'm having difficulty believing a wolf would be so carefree about everything. He's barely posted, has said almost nothing within those posts. His votes rarely have any reasoning behind them, and yet while these traits often point to wolvishness, in this case they seem to be the opposite. I mean, he's not even trying. My opinion right now is just that he's an extremely unhelpful innocent, except in terms of making up the numbers. It could all be an act, it would be a perfect example of flying under the radar, but I really don't think so.

[Kath]

That's it from me for now. Need sleep!

Back in the morning (RL) to do Durelin and Sauce.

[Gurthang]

Uhm...

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

Saucepan and Taliesin are going at each other pretty good, and Kath and Saucey's little spat just now seems really strange.

But, seeing as I have to go (again) I'll just have to see how it plays out through the Day.

[Durelin]

Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

Analysis isn't my thing. It never has worked for me, though I've tried it before. Also, believe it or not, I have been short on time, due to having to prioritize.

(And for this, I apologize to everyone, especially Cailin, as the moddess.)

I'm a little worried about one thing, though. And that is why I'm not dead yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, Kath's analysis of TGWBS has me wondering about him. As I read through it, knowing her to be a Wolf, I though that she was going to make a case against him. But she ends up effectively clearing him, which makes me wonder whether he might not be innocent after all. I have become increasingly doubtful as to whether Gurthang is a Wolf. It might be too obvious, if you get my meaning. And then there's that spat with Rune. It could have been a deliberate Wolfish effort to get Rune lynched and thereby earn credit. Or it could have been an innocent accusing a Wolf which at least one other Wolf (Firefoot and, possibly, Anguirel) seized on to gain credit.

Gurthang, Anguirel and TGWBS - I know that one of you is a Wolf, but I think it's only one. My message to the two of you who are innocent is please let's co-operate and rid ourselves of a Wolf toDay.

I am certain that Durelin is innocent and almost certain about Lalaith, so my message to you two is the same.

Firefoot and Kath are Wolves. We must kill one of them toDay or we are most probably lost.

[The Saucepan Man]

If we kill an innocent toDay, the Loveless Wolves will have a choice. They could kill the innocent Lover (which the Wolf Lover would try to prevent, but no doubt be powerless to prevent) or they could kill a plain innocent.

If they kill the innocent Lover, then you have lost.

If they kill a plain innocent, then toMorrow’s complement will be 3 Wolves (2 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 4 innocents (3 Ordos and 1 Lover). Very easy for the two Loveless Wolves to engineer the killing of either a plain innocent or the innocent Lover in this situation. Either way, you lose and the Wolves win.

But, if we kill a Loveless Wolf toDay, the innocent Lover will almost certainly be safe toNight. A plain innocent will be killed. That leaves 2 Wolves (1 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 5 innocents (4 Ordos and 1 Lover) toMorrow. Much easier for the Lovers to win from this position. And although I will do my damndest to prevent that happening when it comes to it, I would reiterate that, for toDay, it is in your best interests to help the innocents kill a Loveless Wolf.

[Firefoot]

Wow, Sauce seems... riled.

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover. At least I had back-up for my theory. :rolleyes: I don't even know how to defend myself to Sauce's accusations, since I'm not exactly sure what they're based on... all I know is he has suspected me from Day 1, and a lot of it had been of the "she makes a good point here, but there's always this..." variety (not lately, obviously). I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out. What he said.

[Durelin]

At least I had back-up for my theory.

And Taliesin was at the head of it.

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover.Taliesin is behaving in the manner that I would expect a Wolf to behave at this stage in our travails. Since he is clearly not a Wolf, I strongly suspect that he is the innocent Lover.

I really don't know whether his Lover is you or Kath. But it is one of the two of you.

As for my certainy about you, well it's based on my long analyses yesterDay, which your behaviour toDay has confirmed in my mind.

If you are the Wolf Lover, do me a favour and vote for a Wolf. :D

[Durelin]

I've been wary of trusting Sauce this entire game. Right now I'm starting to feel like I've been kept alive because I trust him.

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.

I'm not dead probably because I'm normally seen as worthless.

Fair enough, I suppose.

I think if Sauce was a wolf, though, it's more likely that I would be dead by now. Because a good 'I told you so' is a good way to boost people's image of you. Except...the wolves, whoever they are + Rune, have been busy.

Bleh...I'm trying to think things through, and it's not working.

I think I'm still going to go with Sauce being innocent, though, for now, at least.

Oh, and yes, I'll tell you right now: the whole purpose of this post was to show that I have a little bit of suspicion-feeling stuff concerning SPM just to throw you guys off of our trail, cause you know he's been telling me who to lynch this whole time. Right.

EDIT: Cross-posted with SPM.

[Gurthang]

As weird as this sounds, I actually think Saucepan might be innocent. He's been offering a bunch of 'advice' and stuff... to the Lovers. And that's something that he would only do as an innocent.

Let me walk myself through this. If he was a wolf, he would assume that the ordo-Lover knows who he is. If he suggests the plan he just put forth, where the Lovers lynch a wolf toDay, then he would practically be persuading the Lovers to try to get him lynched.

Now, if he was one of the Lovers, then this wouldn't work either. I just don't see him putting out all that information when he could just keep it to himself. It would be basically telling the village his whole strategy.

Still, I'm not sure where he's coming up with this whole thing about Taliesin and Firefoot being the Lovers. But, by what I said above, Saucey is more than likely innocent, and so he's probably pretty close to being right. I think he might be right that Firefoot is something evil. I might be voting for her later, but as always, I'll be waiting until close to the end of the Day. Taliesin is acting strangely, too, but I'd rather leave him since we known he's not a wolf.

[Anguirel]

You know, it seems to me as if some berserker alien inflitrator has possessed the Real Admiral Potboiler. These rabid certainties are not characteristic of him either as innocent or wolf. Maybe it's the football season. But first, to yesterday's votes (lacking the Firefoot Method, boo hoo)

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

My vote's timing was dictated solely by, er, timing. It was a real feel about in the dark and does not represent the kind of certainty Sauce apparently possesses today.

Durelin has latterly (and then) been heavily playing the "Don't Kill Me, I'm Hapless" card. This vote is consistent with such an image. Glirdan was-as Sauce pointed out-an easy target to kick. The first vote of a bandwagon (I am aware I could be referring to myself) is a fine place to hide.

Lalaith has shown dogged consistency in her pursuit of Gurthang lately; it makes interesting comparison with her fuzziness on Rune. But there is a lot to suspect from the plank operator. More on that anon.

Engels again shadows Lalaith closely. If you ask me, this is a lovers pair we can rule out-few would brave such close association. These two have long been Gurthang-harriers. It should also be noted that they're both lucid thinkers. I believe they may have spotted what we all missed. I've long thought Engels at least an innocent.

Glirdan's vote was clearly a lurch towards self-preservation.

Kath then cast a vote that could very well be called Glirdan's death sentence. The second voter is a very dangerous proposition. A wave of Glirdan votes followed; partly due to these Sauce is convinced Firefoot is a wolf and Taliesin the Innocent Lover. Hold your horses, Sauce. Your strident convictions could mar our search for a culprit. Get back to your wider perspective.

Sauce's and Gurthang's votes are a coda, sonorously bringing the symphony of lynching to its end. Without meaning in the political short-term, they make all the difference now. Because of them I am inclined to see Sauce as an innocent (though taken for a ride by "hapless" wolf-Durelin) and Gurthang as guilty.

More in the afternoon.

[Anguirel]

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.


Durelin, much of your post is rendered redundant by this fact. Plentifully provided with practically trailless innocents to kill, no wolf would worry about Sauce, you or anything of the sort.

Later.

[the guy who be short]

I think you may be right... I'll probably die toNight, so I'm just saying it here, I'm strongly suspicious of Firefoot and Gurthang now. The dying words of Caran. Though my calls for a dictatorial republic are ever denied by fearful wolves and arrogant innocents, I myself will consider these words. And though I consider SpM innocent, I wish to consider things myself now that I have some time allotted to me.

[the guy who be short]

Before I start my own analyses, Taliesin being a Lover does make some sense. I have not analysed him myself, so I do not claim I hold this theory, merely that it is logical that a lover-wolf would convince the others to kill Taliesin last.

Now to analyse.

[the guy who be short]

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Gurthang, meanwhile, consistently votes extremely late. I don't like it. four of his votes have been for innocents, one for a Rune under such suspicion that he would later die anyway.

Firefoot's voting record in less easy to analyse, as she has voted for many who lived yet. Still, it is hardly flattering. The only anomaly is her Rune vote when he was drawing with SpM on Day 4. As SpM says, this my no means exonerates her. It can be construed to make her look bad.

[the guy who be short]

A few additional notes re: Kath and Firefoot.

Kath - She keeps trying, and failing, to get somebody else to suspect me. It's University season, dear, and you know it. She also seems to go into a Glirdan analysis yesterday without considering anything Rune had said.

Firefoot - She has behaved illogically twice on this ship. The former was in reaction to my Innocent Lists idea, which she opposes on the grounds that they are no better informed than we are. I'm not going into it all over again, but only an arrogant innocent or a wolf would deny the logic of putting incredible importance on three known innocents.

The second was in her proposal of using gender to the village's advantage. She doesn't say how we could do this, and I suspect she only wishes to appear helpful. Considering we had a gender difference of one at the time, why even bother mentioning it?


In addition, I don't think enough there was enough emphasis on Rune-analysis yesterday. I hope to be able to go into this today, though two football matches stand in my way.

In case I am unable to return, I now cast my lot in with the man of pans.

++FIREFOOT

[Firefoot]

Your first point I have already addressed. The second point is illogical in itself.

You are making a mistake. You know, I've been painted as a wolf so long I'm starting to feel like some backwards cobbler. You might as well just lynch me - you all must be getting used to getting it wrong by now.

[Kath]

Sauce:
Post 21 – in character, possibly joking suspicion on Nilp and Durelin.

Post 23 – more in character banter, directed at Rune and myself.

Post 24 – more in character, this time directed at Firefoot, in support of lynching the pirates.

Post 28 – character assassinations of everyone. Has a few he says he trusts, only Firefoot from the girls and pretty much everyone but Glirdan from the males. Then creates a lynch list consisting of Jenny, Di, Tali, Durelin and Nilp. If a joke then an unfortunate one in hindsight since 3/5 are now dead and proven innocent. If he’s a wolf I think it suggests at least one of his comrades is on it, so either Durelin or Tali.

Post 30 – switches the order of the list to have Di on top, presumably because she was head pirate.

Post 48 – says the banter must stop, though continues it a little himself. Had some suspicion of Form for almost asking to be lynched and for his Day 1 apathy, though he admits that is usual for Form. Also suspects Jenny for trying to look helpful without actually being so, that was over the ‘do the wolves post early’ thing. Thinks morm is not a wolf because he voted early. Suspected Rune for his vote for Eomer. Could be an innocent having picked up on that well, or a wolf suspecting his fellow because he thought nothing would come of it. Some suspicion of Gurthang for going after Eomer as well. This protection of Eomer business was an odd one. Nobody actually knew he was innocent yet those who didn’t vote for him seem to feel that those who did knew he wasn’t a wolf. Now while that may be true for some it can’t possibly be true for all. But he had a point about there needing to be some basis for such a vote, though it was Day 1.

Post 49 – banter with Di or Jenny (can’t tell who he was referring to) asking how he was double bluffing (looking for pointers?) and asks for clarification on Gurthang’s Bible reference. That’s quite understandable as I think it confused quite a few people. Is pleased that Nilp has voted for himself, but then, Nilp always votes for himself, if he didn’t it would be cause for worry.

Post 55 – agrees with Lalaith that the voting records will be easier to analyse because of the Lovers, except that it may create more in the way of wolf on wolf votes because of fears over traitors so only works only on. Could be just an innocent commenting or a wolf trying to discount a plan. Also some banter with Lalaith. Answers Ang saying the real Lover wouldn’t hint at their role but another wolf might hint at being the Lover falsely in order to draw out the real one. A bit convoluted and I’m not sure how it would work. Could be an innocent trying to figure out how the Lover’s would play or a wolf trying to do the same thing, though I’m not sure a wolf would bother saying out loud, unless he were trying to appear like an innocent. Says he doesn’t like the way Ang is encouraging the Eomer bandwagon but that he is still inclined to trust him. Interesting that, wolf comrades there perhaps?

Post 66 – tells Jenny the Goose is just a joke, bit of banter. Says she is right to trust him but she shouldn’t trust all with such a way with words. Says he will lay off Nilp (when was he suspecting him?) because he is being Nilpish and it is impossible to tell whether Nilp is wolvish or not until after Day 1. Says it is unlikely that a wolf would get involved in the Eomer bandwagon, having previously suspected people for doing that, and I think clears TGWBS on that basis. Bothered by the lack of reasoned votes.

Post 67 – explains how he would act if a wolf, the opposite way in fact to how he is acting, and not true as we have seen wolfSauce and he behaves no differently, but using this theory decides that Lalaith, Tali, Holby, Caran and Firefoot fit the bill. A little unfair as Tali is (pretty much) a newbie and the others often play like that anyway. With two of the five dead, and one the Seer, it is again an unfortunate statistic.

Post 81 – sticks with his earlier theory but discounts Lalaith because she is committing herself more and Tali because he hasn’t returned. Then discounts Firefoot and Caran because they only gave weak reasoning for their votes and he thinks a wolf would give better. Votes Holby, again unfortunate in retrospect, for lack of substance and odd behaviour. Well, he did say he had a good record for picking the Seer as a wolf! However, if a wolf, at the time he would only have known her to be innocent, and with the bandwagons around on either side it was a pretty safe vote.

Post 118 – thinks Eomer’s death was odd and was because the wolves had a grudge, thought him Gifted or wanted him out of the way. Angry with people for voting for Nilp and Eomer because they turned out to be innocent. But at the time no one, except Jenny for Nilp, knew that either was innocent, so this doesn’t make much sense. Suspects Firefoot and Holby for their ill-reasoned votes, and Durelin for being so quick to come and defend hers. Again mentions some trust of Ang even though he did vote Nilp, because he was trying to save Eomer, who at the time we did not know was innocent. Again says it’s unlikely that more than two wolves were involved in the Eomer bandwagon. Has some suspicion over Jenny for trying to save Nilp and Eomer, even though he did the same thing.

Post 121 – says Gurthang is wrong and that Eomer would not have been suspected today if he was alive but that is unlikely. It is probable that the wolves would have taken advantage of the suspicion on him the Day before and kept it going, effectively causing us to argue about him all Day and distract us from finding the wolves.

Post 125 – again speculates over the reason for Eomer’s death, thinking that perhaps no wolf voted for him so there would be no trail, and suspects Gurthang for pushing the bandwagon but not voting on it. Acknowledges morm’s suspicion of Ang but thinks it was too hasty.

Post 157 – again asks why the wolves killed Eomer, repeating his earlier reasons but discounting the grudge theory. Eventually decides it was just to cause confusion and put suspicion on those who voted for him, and so decides that there would only be one wolf amongst them. Thinks Lhuna or Di could be this one because Eomer said they looked innocent, and that Di looks the more suspicious. Again unfortunate in retrospect, but could be an innocent just going in the wrong direction. Agan defends Ang’s vote for Nilp, this time against Holby, and maintains suspicions of her and Firefoot for their votes and lack of contribution. Also suspects Gurthang for trying to make out that his Lover’s reference had a plan behind it, and for encouraging the Eomer bandwagon but eventually placing a ‘safe’ vote with Di. Thinks Glirdan innocent because his analyses just don’t work. Interesting since that’s what made many of us think him guilty. Could be because he knew Glirdan was innocent or because he’s played with him more often. Again defends Ang, this time against morm, and puts some suspicion on morm though immediately removes it again. Says his main suspects are Gurthang, Holby and Firefoot (though only one of the latter two) followed by Di, Durelin and morm. Everything is well reasoned and just how an innocent Sauce would act. It’s just that, a wolvish Sauce acts the same way.


Alright that's as far as I've got so far. Back later to keep slogging away at it. It's as balanced as I can get it given that I think he's wolvish.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alright that's as far as I've got so far. Back later to keep slogging away at it. It's as balanced as I can get it given that I think he's wolvish.Balanced? Ha! It looks precisely like an analysis which is attempting to appear balanced but which intentionally continually drops subtle little references to arouse suspicion.

Like the constant references to my "unfortunate" statistics. Of course they are unfortunate with the benefit of hindsight. I am sure that everyone's early suspicions and votes have elements that were "unfortunate" with the benefit of hindsight. It's the nature of the game, m'dear.

Has some suspicion over Jenny for trying to save Nilp and Eomer, even though he did the same thing.This is a complete misrepresentation. I saw nothing suspicious in Eomer and therefore did not want to vote for him. Jenny actively campaigned to save Eomer (and Nilp). There is a massive difference. I understand now why Jenny did what she did but it was suspicious at the time.

Everything is well reasoned and just how an innocent Sauce would act. It’s just that, a wolvish Sauce acts the same way.True. But a Wolfish Sauce would not act the way I am acting now. Then again, I am sure that you, and others who want to see me hang today, will characterise that as suspicious too. :rolleyes:

I could say a lot more about that analysis, but I have a rather important football match to attend to. Suffice it to say that I am rather regretting my early vote now since, while I still believe Firefoot to be a Wolf, I am absolutely certain that Kath is one.

[Gurthang]

Gurthang, meanwhile, consistently votes extremely late. I don't like it. four of his votes have been for innocents, one for a Rune under such suspicion that he would later die anyway.
I can be here late, so why shouldn't I wait until then to vote? I really don't understand why this is so suspicious. If you say my voting is suspect, well, I'll give you that, because it sure doesn't sparkle. But I don't think that time is a very valid reason.

I'm becoming somewhat suspicious of this Firefoot bandwagon. I don't know if she's innocent or not, as I haven't really looked into her myself. I'm just concerned that all the momentum has shifted so quickly. It's making me wonder again about Saucey, and about Guy as the second voter.

Quite frankly, I have no idea what to think. This feels way to much like Day 1 to be real. I've had suspicions of Guy before, and that nagging feeling is always there when playing with Saucepan Man. Firefoot has given me pause a few times, and Durelin has been acting strange, but I guess that's more normal for her. Right now, I have no idea who I'm gonna vote for. Hopefully, I'll find something to point me in the right direction.

[Lalaith]

I'm sorry, what I thought was tiredness last night was actually the start of a migraine which I still have, so don't expect much from me toDAy.

But I would like to keep options open for as long as I can rather than leap on a great juggernaut of a Firefoot bandwaggon, which may end up telling us very little if Firefoot turns out to be innocent after all and no-one else was really being threatened.
Speaking of which, the Glirdan bandwaggon yesterday: it only really took off when Gurthang was up to two votes, so if Gurth is a wolf then one or even both of the other wolves will have been not just voting but stoking that waggon. (Feasibly the wolves on the waggon may have been trying to save Saucie or Firefoot, too, if either of them are wolves, however neither of them were in much danger yesterday, with both getting only had one vote early on and another cast late for Firefoot, when the Glirdan bandwaggon was already up and rolling)
And we can't find out unless we lynch Gurthang, which I confess I would still like to do.
But I need to broaden my scope. Even if Gurth is a wolf, there are still two more wolves out there so I need some more suspects. If I feel better I will try to go through everything. Again.

[Firefoot]

Like the constant references to my "unfortunate" statistics. Of course they are unfortunate with the benefit of hindsight. I am sure that everyone's early suspicions and votes have elements that were "unfortunate" with the benefit of hindsight. It's the nature of the game, m'dear. But you fail to give other people the same consideration:She labelled four unknown innocents as innocent in #164 (if a Wolf, she would know).
[And, actually, as Caran failed to note, this was part of a larger analysis... not important, maybe, but this way it looks like I just randomly chose those four as innocent...] I'm not saying this shouldn't or can't be used as evidence... but it's the same way for everyone. uffice it to say that I am rather regretting my early vote now since, while I still believe Firefoot to be a Wolf, I am absolutely certain that Kath is one. :rolleyes:

[Kath]

Yes, which is why I said unfortunate in hindsight not ‘Look! He voted for 3 innocents and suspected many other, lynch him he’s a wolf!’ Had I done that I would consider it to be unbalanced.

And on we go.

Post 169 – agrees with TGWBS somewhat over not looking at Eomer voters, though does point out that it’s odd coming from TGWBS since he was an Eomer voter, but says he still retains suspicion of Di for it, and also believes that there is a wolf amongst the Nilp voters, with the other wolves being people who voted for someone else. In light of this he splits the village accordingly. Again repeats that either Firefoot or Holby is a wolf, and that it is more likely to be Holby. Finds Caran, Form and Gurthang’s votes suspicious as possible wolf on wolf votes, with Gurthang at the top of the list. Also some suspicion of morm because he was so bold. Mentions suspicion of Jenny with the same reasoning as many others came up with. Not suspicious as he was the first to do it, but did say that if she were not a wolf Holby was. If a wolf then that’s a good way to push suspicion onto someone else if Jenny ended up lynched or dead. Apologises for if he blew Jenny’s cover as Hunter, which is just silly because if that worried about it he wouldn’t have done it. Well, ok he might there could be reasoning for that. But in that case it’s either slightly silly innocent time or a wolf going ‘oops’ and asking for forgiveness after the fact, and Sauce isn’t silly.

Post 171 – speculates that Jenny may be the innocent Lover. Not sure there was any reasoning behind that at the time.

Post 174 – backtracks and says he doesn’t think her the Hunter as she wouldn’t have bothered trying to save Nilp and Eomer.

Post 190 – says he has confused himself so will now ignore Jenny and go back to Gurthang, Holby and Firefoot, but says Gurthang has quelled his suspicions somewhat. Votes Holby because he feels Firefoot is more innocent. Says he dislikes the way Firefoot does analyses, or at least that kind of analysis in general, because it makes it easier for a wolf to hide.

Post 245 – apologises to Jenny for revealing her, but says he didn’t think she actually was the Hunter. Takes a quick look at the villagers. Suspects Di, Gurthang, Firefoot, Holby, wary of Ang and Lalaith, unsure over me, Tali and Caran and inclined to trust everyone else. Has reasoning for suspecting or not suspecting everyone. Looks to be very fair and reasoned, but then I wouldn’t expect otherwise whatever the role.

Post 263 – apologises for not being around much. Votes Holby because she is still his main suspect for being careful with her votes and condemning Lhuna. Maybe there should be a new role – ‘Seer catcher’ :rolleyes:

Post 322 – apologises for not being around and causing Holby to reveal. Completely disagrees with Di’s analysis, trying to discredit it by saying it was biased by a preconceived view (fair enough) but thinks she is just a misguided innocent. The innocent part is right, not so sure about the misguided. The points she made in that analysis are good and though I’m almost trying to find him innocent at the moment I can’t help but see the same things. Suspects Rune because his post was saying things without actually being helpful. Suspects Firefoot by default though thinks she has been helpful so far. Beginning to think Lalaith a suspect, though no reasoning there which is odd.

Post 347 – agrees with TGWBS’s list suggestion. Again a quick look over the villagers. Finds Durelin and TGWBS innocent and Ang mostly so. Unsure over me, Lalaith, Di, Gurthang and Glirdan. Finds Rune guilty and votes for him. Again all reasoned, but some very concrete views over Durelin, TGWBS and Rune. He was right about one, though this could be due to innocent deductions or wolvish knowledge, so it is possible that he’s right about the other two.

Post 374 – lots of optimism due to Rune’s death, and sets out a list of things that should be looked at. Some suspicion of Glirdan for seeming surprised at who died, fair enough as with a list of known innocents is was fair to assume the deaths would be from it.

Post 377 – reinforces his belief that TGWBS is innocent because he thinks there was only one wolf in the Eomer bandwagon and that would now be Rune. Thinks one of Durelin, Ang and Firefoot is a wolf because they voted for Nilp. Thinks two of Glirdan, Lalaith, Gurthang and me is a wolf (eep, that’s really bad grammar). Thinks Glirdan’s vote for me might have been a wolf on wolf vote, but because it was Day 1 it’s likely that only one of us was. Says a wolf may well not vote first Day, so it doesn’t clear me. Also thinks Gurthang’s vote was wolvish.

Post 378 – says that he will look at Gurthang’s having saved his life.

Post 380 – thinks there may not have been a wolf in the Lhuna bandwagon, but that if there was one it would be Glirdan. Thinks there was only one wolf in the Holby bandwagon too, and since that was Rune it clears Durelin. Thinks Firefoot’s vote for Lalaith looks like a wolf on wolf vote, but thinks that since there was no need for one only one of the two will be wolvish. Suspicious of Gurthang for his throwaway vote.

Post 381 – says he thinks Rune may have been an intentional sacrifice, so there will be at least one wolf who voted for him.

Post 382 – thinks either Glirdan or I was the wolf in the morm bandwagon, and Gurthang the wolf in the Holby bandwagon. Keeps finding ways to point out TGWBS as innocent. Finds Lalaith to be more innocent than before due to her vote for Rune though it is possible that she is the innocent Lover.

Post 384 – thinks at least one, or possibly two wolves voted for Rune and thinks these are Firefoot and Gurthang due to vote placement, though mentions some suspicion of Ang as well. Finds Durelin’s vote for Rune innocent-looking due to prior suspicion and his general good feeling about her. Also lessened his suspicion of Glirdan because he voted for Sauce who thinks it unlikely that two wolves would vote for him. More comfortable about TGWBS and Lalaith because they voted for Gurthang, who he views as suspicious. Says my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote.

Post 385 – little bit of banter with Gurthang.


Ugh, I've just seen how much longer he goes on for. I need a rest. However, so far I get the feeling that doing more isn't going to help. He's acting just like an innocent Sauce, which is a perfect cover for a wolvish Sauce. However, his recent habit of being absolutely sure about people is the most worrying thing, as there is no way he can be so sure unless he knows, and the only way he can know is by being a wolf or the innocent Lover. His constant talking about the Lover's is also something of a worry, as he starts by demanding that we lynch Tali because he is definitely the innocent Lover, and then goes on to say that the Lovers must help us catch the non-Lover wolves because otherwise we have no chance.

I think him wolvish, and this latest little thing about suddenly wishing he could switch his vote from Firefoot to me just makes me even surer. Flip-flopping is generally considered a wolvish trait, and if he is so sure Firefoot is a wolf why wish he hadn't vote for her?

Anyway, I'll be back later to see the analysis through to the end.

[Anguirel]

The two main developments since I left have been Engels' vote and Kath's Sauce analysis. Both are interesting, in that they attract the attention of my lynch-instigating instincts.

Engels has two main suspects-Kath and Firefoot. The evidence for the guilt of Kath is far more concrete.

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Yet he votes Firefoot. This seems to me an astute course of action for a wolf, latching onto the bloody-mindedness of the innocent Sauce to form a rapid consensus against Firefoot before anyone has had real time to consider. It's evocative of the Glirdan bandwagon of yesterday, actually.

Now, Kath's indictment of Sauce is largely based on the fact that she, like me, is disconcerted by his certainty. She says only a wolf or innocent lover could be so certain. Sauce is really certain. Ergo he is a wolf or innocent lover.

Rank tosh, m'dear. That's like saying "Only wolves have fur and growl. Sauce has fur and growls. Ergo he's a wolf." The point is, why would a wolf openly swagger about revealing fur and growling? Why would an innocent Lover or Wolf flaunt their certainty? I believe they'd be much more likely to affect an attitude of haplessness-like you, Kath, or like Durelin.

Like the North Wind the Pan Man blows
So Firefoot to the gallows goes.
Yet in my view t'would be more wise
To swing sly Miss Kath in the skies
And others too do inspire fear
(Durelin, Gurthang, Engels near)
In me-I wouldn't be dismayed
If those four were be scaffold laid.

[Gurthang]

I'm beginning to think that Saucepan might not be innocent. He just seems too flip-floppy to me. A few days ago, he was completely sure of my guilt, and yet he never got around to voting for me. Then he relaxes his suspicion of me (of which I was relieved) and went after Firefoot. Now, after voting for Firefoot, he suddenly becomes more sure that Kath is a wolf. It just doesn't seem like what I usually see from Saucepan Man. He might receive my vote, but I'm not convinced yet.

I was thinking about the voting yesterday. It would make sense to me that the wolves would either A) vote second to try to get a bandwagon rolling or B) when someone reached a significant total, finish them off so that no wolf could be lynched. So, here's how it ran:

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

Second voters: Guy, Kath, Saucepan

I'll remove Saucepan because the decision had been made already to lynch Glirdan, so it had no bearing. (Although, I remain suspicious because of what I said above.)

Finishing him off: Taliesin, Firefoot, Caran

Caran's dead, so she's not in there.

That leaves Guy, Kath, Taliesin, Firefoot. Taliesin we know not to be a wolf. So I would wager that there is (at least) one wolf, maybe the lover (Taliesin could be that) in that group. Of course, you could just say that that's pretty obvious considering the high percentage of evils we have floating around. Anyway, I'll probably vote for one of them... or maybe Sauce. It mostly depends on what difference it makes towards the end.

[Anguirel]

Another important issue-we haven't heard from Goosey Gander lately. Has the renowned Admiral eaten him? Was he assassinated politically? Is there a conspiracy? I think we should be told.

Well. An hour and a bit till nightfall and most of us uncommitted...this could be interesting.

[Kath]

RL: Off to drown my sorrows after the England game, so unlikely to be back for hours (and not in any fit state either).

Therefore:

++SAUCE

[Firefoot]

Thoughts on TGWBS:

His first post contained his vote for Eomer; it was Eomer's third vote (the second was Rune's...). Of the other people who had thus far received votes, Kath is the only one we don't know about - the other two were both innocent. I would say his vote was a pretty easy bandwagon vote.

Post 158, he wanted us to look at people who had voted for neither Eomer nor Nilp; well, this creates the possibility of a protection for Rune (voting for Eomer) and himself (whether wolf or innocent), as well as possibly Diamond, Durelin, or Ang (or me, if you so think). That definitely has interesting possibilities.

He does not vote on Day 2, which I find extremely strange. He claims tiredness, which was probably the case, but I would definitely think a wolf would make more effort - unless none of his fellow-wolves were in real danger? A lot of people received votes on Day 2, and only Lalaith and Ang remain unknown... I would think that if he were a wolf, this could argue for their innocence - anyone on that list had the potential to be lynched. It was just too close. Of course, maybe he was just being an apathetic wolf... or something. I don't know what can be drawn from this for sure.

He places suspicion on Morm (innocent) for accusing him of being a wolf - reasoning: different playing style - and Kath (unknown) for overlooking his RL issues. He also points out that wolf-tgwbs is unsuspicious... so just because he's suspicious, he's not a wolf? Eh... His later vote for Morm presumably follows from this.

Foolish, Holbytlass! You would have survived this day - morm got more votes first.

But it is done. Thank you none the less. Is this comment completely innocent... or, "thank you for revealing yourself..." Could go either way.

He brings up the idea of our innocents leading the voting. It's not a bad suggestion. I could see either a wolf or an innocent making it, though; as I've already pointed out, the innocents don't really know what they're doing... it would be a bit of a risk, though...We have nothing to lose and everything to gain by allowing them to draw up a shortlist of, say, four people, and voting from that list. Unless, of course, they were completely wrong... and wolves could still hide in this - chances are, not more than two wolves would show up on these lists - and if he wasn't a lover, then there would be one wolf (albeit one unknown) he wouldn't care to lose. It seems like an innocent idea, but it can be seen otherwise. I don't like his absoluteness about the plan. Basically he says, if you go with it, good, if not, you're suspicious.

Actually, his using of the innocents' ideas for voting would be an easy way for a wolf to hide - even if he voted for an innocent, he could claim he was relying on known innocents. He votes for Gurthang, apparently largely based on their lists. The three he said were most suspicious to him were Gurthang, Rune, and Lalaith - also a good place for a wolf to hide "I'm suspicious of my fellow wolf... but not going to help vote him out" - of course, he smartly (for a wolf) doesn't help Rune really either, in voting for Gurthang. Lalaith already had a vote, while Gurthang didn't. A vote for Gurthang is a much less obvious help... and also a possible wolf-on-wolf vote? Help one, vote for another that doesn't look likely to be lynched?

Suspicions of Gurthang and me; Lalaith and Sauce probably innocent. Vote for Gurthang, putting him in the lead with two votes (Ang and I had one). Okay, maybe wolf-on-wolf isn't so likely. Unless TGWBS was the Lover... that would seem like too obvious a move, though, since his wolves would probably start to figure this out.

ToDay, he points out Caran's dying words to look at me and Gurthang - enforcing his own suspicions with the words of an innocent. Then there's his vote for me, immediately after Sauce's... (with rather poor reasoning, might I add, for having more than 5 Days' worth evidence...) and right after saying Kath is more suspicious.

I'm seriously considering a vote for TGWBS toDay. He seems more suspicious than Sauce right now (I'm having trouble figuring out if I'm more annoyed with or suspicious of him right now... although I'm still considering him for a vote, as well). This took a lot longer than I had anticipated, and now I don't have as much time left to make up my mind, much less check other people out (most of whom posted much more than TGWBS).

[Anguirel]

Firefoot, I can see why from your perspective a revenge vote for Engels would be satisfying, and why it has some substance behind it. However, duels can cause so much more trouble than they're worth...I suspect our Friedrich a bit but not yet enough, I think, to denounce him utterly. His methods are bizarre. ("I suspect Kath. PYOING I'm voting Firefoot anyway".) But almost too bizarre for wolfdom, I feel.

The problem with these feuds is that as they crop up they obscure the clearer picture of gathered evidence of actions. It is on the latter category that I hope to base my vote...coming soon...ish.

[Taliesin]

This day has been more confusing then ever. After today I honestly don't know anyone I can trust in anymore. Firefoot and TGWBS look very likely wolves aswell and I never really had a good feeling about Kath.

Before I start my own analyses, Taliesin being a Lover does make some sense. I have not analysed him myself, so I do not claim I hold this theory, merely that it is logical that a lover-wolf would convince the others to kill Taliesin last.

Yes, it's true. It does make sense. Because of my unfortunate voting record I'm probably the easiest target for the wolves to point out as innocent lover. However, I suspect the wolves' plan all the time was to attempt making one of the known innocents look like that.

I can be here late, so why shouldn't I wait until then to vote? I really don't understand why this is so suspicious.

If you wait until the last minutes before deciding who to vote for, chances are there's a lot of room for a safe vote, which is something a wolf would love to have. I'm not saying that you are a wolf, but it does in a way looks suspicious.

I'm fully expecting to be dead by tomorrow, but I will stick to my main suspicion, which still is The Saucepan Man. I'm sorry if I'm wrong, but you acted exactly how I thought a wolf would act, pointing me out to look like the innocent lover. I must admit I'm a bit cooled down and not that certain of my vote anymore, but how many more innocents must point into the Saucepan Man's direction before we take action?

So...

+ +Saucepan Man.

[Firefoot]

(Assuming I vote for TGWBS, which is not decided), if you think that the only reason I would vote for him is as revenge, you would be wrong. I wouldn't do that. I initially looked at him because of his strange vote, but I wouldn't vote for him because of that. No, I am considering voting for him because he looks rather wolvish.

Firefoot – 2 (Sauce 1, TGWBS 2)
Sauce – 2 (Kath 3, Taliesin 4)

[Gurthang]

Well, looks like it's more or less between two toDay. We could lynch another, but I doubt that the voters who are left are going to do that.

Right now I'm thinking I'll probably vote for Saucepan Man. Largely because of his strangeness toDay and his flip-floppishness concerning me, Firefoot and Kath these last two Days.

[Firefoot]

The trouble is, I'm not sure that a Wolf-Sauce would be flip-floppish... I think he'd be more collected than this.

I would be willing to vote for someone other than Sauce (or myself)...

[Anguirel]

Well, looks like it's more or less between two toDay. We could lynch another, but I doubt that the voters who are left are going to do that.


Ha ha! I have you now, varlet!

By implication-"Well, now that it looks like I can slither out of being a candidate..."

You will not escape the length of this Scots claymore, o poltroon of the plank. This is simply too transparent, especially when we think of your oh-so-piteous Johnny Depp moment earlier.

Ye who intimated against Eomer. Voted safely. Then, by my faith, arrant rogue, ye did slay him after nightfall if I see the signs aright.

Ye who slink till the dying embers of eve to leave your mark.

Ye who thought to sentence Holby to death to free the comrade, Rune, ye helped slay the day after-perhaps thinking him Lovelorn.

You who trampled on the visage of the slain Glirdan when the combat was done.

Nay, ye shall not evade my grasp.

++GURTHANG

[Firefoot]

And Gurthang's one of those I haven't had the chance to look at more closely yet. Oh, that didn't make this any easier...

[Durelin]

Durelin has latterly (and then) been heavily playing the "Don't Kill Me, I'm Hapless" card.

Actually, I tend to always play the "It Would Be Funny If You Killed Me" card.

Perhaps that's why I enjoyed my time spent making shoes so much.

[Gurthang]

Ang... you're not making sense. The case you have just brought up has been around for awhile now. Why do you all of a sudden bring it out? Come to think of it, didn't you vote for Firefoot also yesterday; what happened to that suspicion? I don't think that the sentence I uttered incriminates me any more than what you just did points to you being evil. Quite frankly, I think the opposite.

Unfortunately, as much as that makes me think you might be a wolf, I don't think you're gonna get lynched toDay. Especially since no one, including myself, has suspected you at all.

[Lalaith]

Well, as you all know, last time I was well and functioning, I was more suspicious of Gurthang than I am of anybody at the moment and so clearly, of the current choices on offer, I can only do one thing:

++GURTHANG

Today I have barely been able to read through stuff posted, so everyone's suspicions of Firefoot and Saucie might be very well-founded for all I know. But I just can't get rid of my bad feeling about Gurth and what he said about sacrificing himself for Saucie - and now he actually wants to vote for Saucie. For flip-flopping, forsooth! It's too weird and I still think he's a wolf.

[Firefoot]

++Saucepan Man

I really, really hope he's a wolf... and it seems my best choice. I'll have to look at Gurthang and Ang tomorrow.

Cross-posting with Lal.

[Lalaith]

Sorry to elaborate, I have read through everything but I haven't been able to process and analyse it for myself in the way that I'd like to have done before voting.

[Anguirel]

Come to think of it, didn't you vote for Firefoot also yesterday; what happened to that suspicion?

Sorry, Wolfang old chap, it must be very disappointing for you. Out of the blue, I stop reliably supporting the damoiselle you are attempting to pin down and vote for you instead. Most disheartening. I'd offer you some whisky, but I think you and your friends already drank it some time ago when you slew our Seer...

[Gurthang]

Well, at least someone around here's consistant. (Speaking of Lalaith)

++The Saucepan Man

See one of my earlier posts for my reasoning.

[Durelin]

:rolleyes:

[Durelin]

++Firefoot

Gurthang - you're next.

[Firefoot]

Not sure what the ":rolleyes:" is supposed to mean...

[Gurthang]

1. Saucepan-->Firefoot
2. TGWBS-->Firefoot
3. Kath-->Saucepan
4. Taliesin-->Saucepan
5. Anguirel-->Gurthang
6. Lalaith-->Gurthang
7. Firefoot-->Saucepan
8. Gurthang-->Saucepan
9. Durelin-->Firefoot

That's a lot of bandwagons for a single Day. I'll be looking at this through the Night.

[Cailín]

Day is over now... Narration will be up soon.

[Anguirel]

I suspect some of our voters are already ruing their decisions. Our friend the plank operator has as good as revealed himself as a Wolf.

Firefoot, I reckon that was general frustration. I reciprocate it.

[Cailín]

From the start of the Day, it seemed the dislike and enmity among the passengers had grown considerably since their failed attempt to lynch a wolf yesterDay. Now reprieved from the comic relief the drunken sailor offered and the carefree attitude of the bartender, including all the precious rum, the atmosphere was grim and vengeful.

“Mr. Sir Saucepanwolf Horatio Goosey Potboiler is taking far too much control here. He is evil, he blames me, and I don’t like it,” growled Taliesin, not quite recovered from the shock that morning.

“Indeed,” said Durelin. “He should have been death by now.”

“That’s not very reasonable at all,” Sir Horatio pointed out. “After all, they have been killing the known innocents off since Night 3.”

“Good point,” said Durelin doubtfully.

“Well, no matter,” said Kath. “Those with authority should in any case be blamed first.”

“Yes, I agree. I suspect you, Kath. Let’s kill Firefoot,” said Friedrich Engels.

“Huh?” asked Firefoot.

“Well, good,” said Gurthang. “At least I’m no lynching target today.”

Immediately Anguirel jumped up. “Ye are asking for it, ye plank operator.”

“I always said we should be looking at Gurthang,” said Lalaith smugly. “I quite forgot why, but it seems consistent.”

In the end however, Sir Horatio seemed to have gathered the most suspicion. While still raging about the obvious guilt of Firefoot and Kath, he was slowly being driven into a corner.

“Halt,” said Sir Horatio, suddenly nervous. “There is an obvious flaw in this system of justice. Can I not request a duel? An ordeal to prove my innocence? Um, how about a penalty fine, eh?”

“There’s no justice system for wolves,” said Gurthang.

“Don’t worry – being an outlaw ain’t so bad as it appears. Well, unless you’re up for the chop,” said Taliesin.

*Honk*. Suddenly, from the shadows, Sir Horatio’s Goose reappeared. *Honk* told you he was guilty, *honk*.

“Oh dear,” said Sir Horatio. “Not you again.”

*Honk* evil itself, evil itself, continued Goosey Gander.

“I thought I’d boiled you up for dinner just now?” said Sir Horatio, more to himself. “How awfully strange.” He walked towards the galley, as the passengers exchanged worried looks.

He entered, followed in his wake by his ex-comrade Goosey Gander. In the middle of the galley, a huge kettle full of boiling water stood unattended. Uncertainly, Sir Horatio approached closer, still looking suspiciously at the Goose behind him.

“See!” he said, once he had come close enough. “You are in here. That means you can not possibly be out there; ergo, your testimony holds no value.”

The passengers looked around disturbed.

“Weren’t we about to lynch him?” asked Durelin under her breath.

“What are we waiting for?” said Gurthang impatiently. With a decisive shove, he pushed Sir Horatio Potboiler head forward into the kettle. He never got the chance to scream or protest as he plunged into the boiling water. Moments later, a delicious smell wafted through the ship’s kitchen. There was no trace of burned hair or stained fangs. Fearing the worst, it was Firefoot who finally pulled the poor Rear-Admiral out. The upper body of Sir Horatio was covered in nasty looking blisters and he was, without a doubt, pretty dead. Also, pretty innocent and ordinary.

“Eurgh,” said Lalaith. “Gruesome.”

Terrified, the passengers retreated for the Night. Again, they had failed to find a wolf.

--

Captain Cailín’s Log

:rolleyes:

Signed,

Durelin




~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5
Glirdan - ordinary passenger, struck down by liquor at the end of Day 5
Caranlondien – ordinary passenger, poured and minced into a barrell of rum during Night6
Saucepan Man – ordinary passenger, attacked and subsequently boiled together with Goosey Gander at the end of Day 6


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)

Night 7 has now started. Wolves, please PM your kill choice to Nogrod and me. Others... sleep tight.

[Nogrod]

Private property is sacred, as is the status quo of the society. There is a fixed human nature that is an abstract thing that cannot be changed.

Friedrich Engels was having nightmares. It had to be the Devil himself that was upon him, but then again, Devil was a creation of christianity and as a materialist he couldn’t believe in His existence either. So who was whispering to him these atrocities?

You know, the liberal laissez-faire market economy allows the maximum freedom?

“Rubbish!!! Free competition doesn’t free individuals – it merely sets capital free to exploit workers!” he yelled and rised up on his bed. To his horror he seemed to have guests, totally uninvited – and they were terrifying guests, even more terrifying than a nobleman. For some reason, he couldn’t just find the courage or reason to call them ‘capitalistic swine’, it felt somewhat inappropriate at the moment.

“So, a dictatorial republic we crave for? How nice. We seem to be having a similar goal?” grinned the biggest one.

“You’re wrong to think us denying it, we would love it!” seconded the smallest one.

“But you are right about the arrogant innocents”, echoed the third one, openly delighted.

Friedrich Engels gatherd all his courage and shouted out loud: “Viva la révolution!” he took some breath as the biggest one approached him and yelled from the bottom of his lungs: “Liberté, Égalité, Fraterni..!!!” His call was brutally broken off by a sharp fang that cut his tongue out. He fell back on his bed, in total shock caused by the pain. He turned hysterically around the bed for a second, but then felt strong “hands” hoisting him up.

“Revolution or reform? Hmm, that’s the question?”, ridiculed the smallest one.

“Weren’t you the one of you pals who counted on the slow revolution?” queried the third one, continuing immediately: “I suppose you know what 'revolution' means, don’t you?” It was almost giggling.

“Okay ruffians, let’s’ show this bourgeois how he becomes an actual proletariat revolving around the ship, like in the old days!” called the biggest one and took Friedrich Engels on it’s shoulder.

They sneaked up to the deck. The smallest one and the third one prepared the ropes, tying them to the wheel which they initially turned to the farthest possible position – and with an ingenious system that made use of the pulleys on the masts, they crerated a round going rope-loop powered by the steady wind that was pushing them forwards. The whole ship started going in circles with ropes revolving around it the same time.

“Here’s some revolution for you. Feel it and enjoy. You are the centerpiece of this little revolution here”, smiled the biggest one, as it was tying Friedrich Engels to the rope.

So down he went with the loop, under the ship’s keel and after a while came up again from the other side. The movement was slow and pushed his lungs to their limits.

“Happy reform, good friend” jeered the smallest one as Friedrich Engels revolved over the deck the first time.

“Let’s take our time”, mocke the third one as he came up the second time, half-dead already.

“Let’s go to sleep, he won’t make it many more rounds”, said the biggest one calmly and went down to the cabins, followed by the other two.


In the morning the passengers met the heart-sinking sight. The lifeless body of Friedrich Engels was revolving slowly around the ship that was making circles.

“This is so terrible” muttered Kath in anguish.

“Planks are somewhat humane, compared to this” bewailed Gurthang.

“Even Jounin could not help him now” regretted Durelin.

“Oh, for heaven’s sake, take him down!” called Sir Anguirel Spens. “Have some decency!”


----------------------------
Captain Cailín's log

In some situations, even Zidane can't help you...

The wolves.
----------------------------


~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5
Glirdan - ordinary passenger, struck down by liquor at the end of Day 5
Caranlondien – ordinary passenger, poured and minced into a barrell of rum during Night6
Saucepan Man – ordinary passenger, attacked and subsequently boiled together with Goosey Gander at the end of Day 6
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short) - ordinary passenger, drowned while revolving around the ship's keel during Night7


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)

Day7 begins. May the winds be with you!

[Gurthang]

1. Saucepan-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. TGWBS-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2)
3. Kath-->Saucepan (Firefoot 2, Saucepan 1)
4. Taliesin-->Saucepan (Firefoot 2, Saucepan 2)
5. Anguirel-->Gurthang (Firefoot 2, Saucepan 2, Gurthang 1)
6. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 2, Saucepan 2, Gurthang 2)
7. Firefoot-->Saucepan (Firefoot 2, Saucepan 3, Gurthang 2)
8. Gurthang-->Saucepan (Firefoot 2, Saucepan 4, Gurthang 2)
9. Durelin-->Firefoot (Firefoot 3, Saucepan 4, Gurthang 2)

First off, Ang, I still wonder about that vote of yours. It seemed rather out of the blue to me.

Other than that, the votes that look suspicious are Taliesin's and Firefoot's. Taliesin and Saucepan had quite an arguement yesterday, each accusing the other of being the ordo lover. Quite frankly, as much as I became suspicious of him, Saucepan might have been right. Now that we know he is innocent, Taliesin might be one to look at. It also intrigues me that the wolves did not kill him, considering that he is a 'known' innocent.

Firefoot, who came up second yesterday, has been suspected by almost everyone. I've not gotten a chance to look at her yet, but I might do that before the Day is too far gone.

I'm still pretty lost in this whole mess. I usually can get a slight grasp on what's going on, but I just can't seem to get anywhere. I'm gonna go have a bit of a think.