Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto [Archive] - Page 2

the phantom

11-16-2006, 09:16 PM

Oh, and in case anyone asks why I voted for Eomer so suddenly and without explanation, here's what I have to say to that.

First, keep in mind that Eomer was not on my innocent list. He was listed as "Maybe WWs, but I am starting to form opinions on them and will make up my mind eventually". So definitely don't say that he wasn't one of my suspects to begin with.

And then Eomer made post #211. In my mind, this was the post that made me willing to vote for him. Eomer's over-willingness to assume the reason for the kill was the "wolf-guns-for-wolf" idea set off alarms for me. He was hopping onto the train started by SPM and I and was running with it a bit too far, trying to lead us astray. And the fact that he caused the theory to implicate himself further incriminated him in my mind. In seemed like a WWish thing to do.

After reading that particular post, if you remember, I said this-
Note: I think it may prove to be telling one way or the other that Eomer has been all day today more than willing to assume that morm was killed because a WW thought that he was the other WW. Take from that what you will.
As you can see, Eomer had my attention at that point. My eye was on him.

After that, I took some time to explain my ploys/traps, and then it was time for me to rush off to work, so I quickly cast my vote for Eomer.

I certainly won't claim to have been sure of Eomer's guilt by any means, but I will say that I couldn't really think of anyone that I had particularly stronger suspicions of. He made me very uneasy. In addition, I trusted that Ang was (and is) an innocent and was willing to hop on board Ang's cause.

So there you go. That's why I voted for the evil Werewolf yesterday.

Also, if you want to take a look back at a couple of yesterday's posts, here are some places you may want to start-

SPM's post #180 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497916&postcount=180)
lmp's list #208 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497967&postcount=208)
Esty's list #201 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497957&postcount=201)
Ang's list #207 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497966&postcount=207)

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 09:25 PM

Estelyn Summary

Day 1
Post 1- Wonders if her vote will count if there aren't any bandwagons, doesn't know how to reach consensus, points out that SPM's plan means that Fea could play by herself

Post 2- Remark that we shouldn't trust phantom just because he says so, in character nonsense

Post 3- Reminds everyone of her 100% innocent record

Post 4- Also 100% winning streak

Post 5- "Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?"

Post 6- Appreciation to Diamond, banter about being an attractive WW candidate

Post 7- "If it wouldn't give the wolves an advantage, lynching Bb would be a great idea!"

Post 8- Suggests lynching Boromir, Di, and Nogrod to solve their time conflict

Post 9- "Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!"

Post 10- Vote count, says she would vote for someone who already has a vote to make voting effective, voting Bb makes no sense, still trusts phantom, has no reason to mistrust LMP or Ang, worried about Boromir because "he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt."

Post 11- in character

Post 12- clarification on previous typo, votes Boromir "based on several next-to-nothings"

Day 2
Post 1- can't understand Fea's narration, but assumes it's there for a purpose, wonders if we will not know the role of the deceased, thinks we don't have a chance for logic in this game, thinks Fea was displeased with one of the wolves, says her vote for Boromir was statistically inevitable, doesn't think our accuracy will be any greater

Post 2- Says phantom's conclusion (post #164) makes her think of Diamond, doesn't believe in Diamond's rule

Post 3- Points to newbieness as reason for being quiet, is suspicious of Di, still trusts phantom

Post 4- thinks she was chosen due to the rarity of her presence, thinks she will be less calculable for the experts

Post 5- says next few posts will be for amusement

Post 6- WW, Books forum-style

Post 7- TiG Palantir of Fortune

Post 8- New Werewolves - Introduce Yourself Here

Post 9- Says she really can't think of anything constructive, posts her gutfeelings, trusts phantom, distrusts Di, uncertain about everyone else

Post 10- Votes Diamond

Post 11- corrects vote

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 09:26 PM

Analysis

Day 1 saw a whole lot of nothing from Estelyn. Her pessimism about our situation is similar to phantom's "pessimism," only hers is far more subtle and less attention getting. She also makes a point of stating multiple times that she trusts phantom, which I personally find odd. Rule No 1 of any WW game involving phantom is "Don't trust phantom, at least not until Day 2." Did she really trust the Ploy Master, or was she buddying up in attempt to appeal to his oh so large ego after he began noticing her lupine appeal?

She posted more than some others on day one, yet said the least out of everyone. I believe the term for this is frothiness, and frothiness is always worrying. It's a rather convenient place to hide, and she's managed to slip below the radar again. Nogrod said that one liners wouldn't be problem in this group, but Esty has a number of them. She also uses the old "Newbie Defense" saying that it's her inexperience in the game that causes both the quiet and the froth. She appeals to all our egos by saying that she's learning from us.

On Day 2, she continues with her pessimism about logic in this game. She also picks up on Di, and sticks with it through out the day, which is consistent, but makes me wonder if it's not a wolf picking up new prey. She conveniently and continuously points to the logic of others to make her case, posting nothing of her own reasoning.

What has me the most worried is her 10 post of the game, #105 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497673&postcount=105), where she briefly but systematically eliminates her choices for a vote. What bothers me is her reasoning. She actually wants to bandwagon on the leaders, thus continuing her lack of need for an actual case. She eliminates the main leader, phantom, with her statement of trust, then cuts out the other likely candidates, LMP and Ang, because she "has no reason to mistrust them." Boromir, on the other hand, has lots of experience and so is more dangerous. Her bizarre (to me, anyways) trust in phantom aside, the reasoning she uses to vote for Boromir is equally applicable to LMP and Ang, if not more so.

At this point in time, few people (namely Diamond) had any sort of case against Boromir, and it was mostly facetiousness. A safer vote could never be thrown.

the phantom

11-16-2006, 09:27 PM

I haven't done exaustive Roa-style research on yesterday's quotes 'n votes, so this list here I'm giving is likely to change a bit later today after reading all of the information that the rest of you will no doubt bring up about what went on yesterday.

But for right now, my list...

COMPLETE ANGELS
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
the phantom
SPM

THE BETWEENERS
Kath
Roa

NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY
Esty
Di

(heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels" :p )

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 09:29 PM

(heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels" )

Sexist. :p

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 09:41 PM

Oh, and the ever so popular list of opinions, because noone cares right now, but everyone will care when I'm dead:

(And I discount my self from the list because you should all know where I stand on that.)

Definitely innocent:
No one

Probably innocent:
Nogrod
Diamond
(Try not to have a heart attack, you two.)

Possibly wolves:
Everyone

Probably Wolves:
Estelyn
SPM

Diamond18

11-16-2006, 09:43 PM

NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY
Esty
Di

Getting a bit forward, are we now?

Diamond18

11-16-2006, 09:47 PM

Probably innocent:
Nogrod
Diamond
(Try not to have a heart attack, you two.)

I'll try, but....

Eeeeeeek!

Anyway, I'm working on my "Who Killed Limpy?" um, thingie, at the moment. He just seems like a rather odd choice for a kill, and so there has to be something there. But you know, I must get psyched up about this endeavor because it involves the reading of SpM posts. *faints*

the phantom

11-16-2006, 09:47 PM

Sexist. :p
So it would seem.
Probably Wolves:
Estelyn
SPM
SPM, eh? Does that mean you'll be doing one of your Roa-style examinations on him? I'd be interested in seeing one.

the phantom

11-16-2006, 09:59 PM

Reasons for a WW kill-
1) To get someone who is suspicious of you out of the way.
2) To cast suspicion on those suspected by the victim.
3) To cause those who were not suspected by the victim to look innocent.
4) In order to leave no clear path to the WW. (the WW would be listed neither as suspicious or innocent with the victim)

If the WW killed based on #1 it implicates- Roa and Di

If the WW killed based on #2 it clears- Roa and Di

If the WW killed based on #3 it implicates- the phantom, SPM, and Mith

If the WW killed based on #4 it implicates- Nogrod, Kath, Ang, and Estelyn

And then past these more basic conclusions is a layer of bluffing which would make the opposite true in each case.

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 10:02 PM

one of your Roa-style examinations on him

You know, I learned that style from Ang of all people in my first game, WWJIII. He was a werewolf, in the end, but the tool still proved useful. (Helped me catch Valier.)

But you know, I must get psyched up about this endeavor because it involves the reading of SpM posts.

If you're going to do a "me-style" analysis on SPM, then I'll take this opportunity to hit the sack. (I was trying to psych myself up as well- my goodness, that's a lot of work.) If not, then I'll be happy to stay up and actually work on it. Or you take Day 1 and I'll take Day 2, or something of that sort.

the phantom

11-16-2006, 10:03 PM

I'll take SPM's day 3 posts.

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 10:04 PM

I'll take SPM's day 3 posts.

Har, har.

Diamond18

11-16-2006, 10:28 PM

If you do Day 1, I'll do Day 2.

I have to re-read Day 2 anyway, since I had to skim a lot at the end of yesterDay.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-16-2006, 11:12 PM

Dear me, Roa's analysis almost makes me scared of myself! :eek:

Let me say one thing now, then I will not repeat it. Any "frothiness" (I love that word, Roa! :D ) in my posts is there because I fully intend to have fun in this game. I joined it because it was to be simple, with none of the complicated roles and changing characters that have been so prevalent in many WW games. If my playfulness gets me suspected and lynched, so be it. But as the song says, "Girls just wanna have fun."

Actually, so far my playing has produced a balanced result - one negative rep, one positive rep, one lynch vote, one plea to keep me alive for my entertainment value. Why should I change anything...

Now, to get down to toDay's business: I'm glad we have found one of the werewolves, though it makes finding the second one more difficult statistically. We do, however, now have data to analyze. The problem is that any conclusions to be made are a matter of interpretation.

Votes for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, LMP, Di Of those, LMP is proven innocent by his death. Only one werewolf is left to have killed him. So that werewolf can no longer be going for a fellow werewolf.

If one of the votes for Eomer came from a fellow werewolf, Ang, Mith, phantom, and Di are the suspects. There is, of course, the possibility that they are only shrewd players who had his measure from familiarity with his playing style.

The primary question now is: Who killed Elempi? That is the remaining werewolf. Was it SPM with his constant feud? He did vote for him yesterDay. I will have to look at LMP's previous posts more closely to see if he was suspecting someone and had to be killed before the remaining WW was discovered.

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 11:13 PM

SPM Summary

Day 1
Post 1- "Wolves are in competition" theory, isn't worried about wolves learning anything new from it, since any wolf should have figured it out, suggests the wolves prime target will be each other, believes that a wolf must be the lone survivor to win, agrees with Ang that we have all the cards, says innocents shouldn't worry about dying, says he has little to go on, is wary of any suggestion to focus attention on any one villager

Post 2- the "One vote apiece" plan

Post 3- Responsive post: To Esty- We're essentially flipping coins anyways, To Morm- doesn't think that the tie must necessarily be two-way; To Ang- his knowledge is due to pre-game enquiries

Post 4- rethinks point about ties, concedes that morm may be right

Post 5-
• Doesn't think the day has been productive, says no one has bothered to think about whether the wolves are working together or alone,
• says he would have made his inquiry whether he was a wolf or an innocent, and that as a wolf, he would have kept it to himself,
• recants 13-way tie plan,
• thinks that the players most capable of messing with our heads are the likeliest wolf choices,
• agrees with Nogrod that everyone here makes a good wolf choice, agrees with Ang that one Wolf was completely random.
• Says he holds no grudges and doesn't know who would hold a grudge against him
• Always suspects LMP, Eomer, Morm, and phantom (THREE ARE DEAD, LOOK OUT PHANTOM!)
• Thinks that both Boromir and phantom have directed a lot of time telling everyone they're innocent

Post 6- Votes phantom
"Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.
Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.
Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.
And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me."

Post 7- Insistence that it's uncertain that the wolves are working together, response to phantom's defense http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497693&postcount=112

Post 8- To Nogrod- "as it turns out, it seems that I was quite possibly laboring under a misapprehension." (Not sure what he's referring to.)
Clarification about expendable villagers statement, say professions of innocence and heated defenses are going to look suspicious to him
List of villagers and reactions:
Ang= slightly suspicious, but good value
Boro= can't tell if he finds him suspicious or not
Di= nothing to go on
Eomer= Dangerously quiet
Estelyn= Not really suspicious
Kath= suggestion of wolfishness in vote
LMP= useless and suspicious
Mith= Less suspicious than most
Morm= See Eomer
Nogrod= Nogrod
Roa= good optimism
Phantom= really suspicious
Vote Tally

Post 9- Response to Roa, agrees that traditional uses of voting record are not viable

Post 10- Says that a Kath-wolf voting for tp makes him look innocent, but this is hypothetical, since phantom is his prime suspect

Post 11- Says he may vote for Boromir, but is leaning towards LMP

Post 12- Vote record
Says phantom has made solid contributions, while LMP has not, doesn't like the reasoning behind his vote for Diamond, says Fea would likely pick him for a wolf, retracts phantom vote, votes LMP
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497717&postcount=131

Post 13- Vote record

Post 14- Says he may have voted Boromir had he seen his vote before his retraction

Post 15- Says he will hang around till the end of the Day

Roa_Aoife

11-16-2006, 11:14 PM

Analysis of SPM on Day 1

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly. Between the attack on phantom's defense, and SPM's change in vote, Phantom is silent. There was nothing to cause SPM to drop his vote, especially in the rather nonchalant manner in which he does it. It makes it seem like the whole thing was smoke and mirrors, with no substance at all.

Also, his post #131 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpo...7&postcount=131) bears heavy scrutiny. His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure. Yet when LMP used that reasoning to vote for Diamond, SPM found it a suitable reason to vote for his lynching. He also didn't like that LMP had voted based on a grudge, which numerous others had done during the day. It comes across, to me at least, as a heavy charade.

He also bears the same muted pessimism as Esty. He keeps hinting that we're hopeless, and that there's no room for logic here, with out ever actually stating it. He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?

Personally, I think Nogrod was on the right track.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-16-2006, 11:28 PM

I'm going to go back and check all of LMP's posts to see if he was on to anyone.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 12:01 AM

OK, too many posts to list individually, so I will sum up what I have found in LMP's posts and voting:

#241 was his last post; in it he exonerated SPM of any real suspicion, saying that their spats were just the usual. He is somewhat suspicious of the Phantom, but his suspicion of Eomer resulted in a change of his vote, away from Di to Eomer. It would seem, then, that neither SPM nor Di had reason to dispense of him.

#226 expounds his reasons for suspecting both SPM and Phantom.

#212, his first vote yesterDay for Diamond.

#208: His list - this could be an important clue!
Who I think is innocent (all gut feeling as there really, really isn't much else that can honestly be said by anybody with any certainty at all {Elempi glares at Espiem}):

Elempi (obviously)
the phantom
Espiem
Mithalwen

Who I'm not at all sure about:
Nogrod
Kath
Anguirel
Estelyn

Who I think may be a werewolf:

PreciousPrism18

Roa
Eomer

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Roa is capable of just about anything. I learned that in a certain DW game.

Diamond: she's due.

More in a bit - real life calls me away now. (Well, barks me away, actually - time to walk the dog...)

the phantom

11-17-2006, 12:15 AM

I've been rereading posts and just generally skimming over the thread. After doing so, I feel the need to remake my guilt list.

Every time I reread my feelings change. That's so annoying. :rolleyes: It reminds me I don't have anything concrete.

PURE AND SPOTLESS
Ang
the phantom

LEANING TOWARDS INNOCENT
Esty
Mith
Nogrod
Roa
SPM

KEEP AN EYE ON
Di
Kath

There are several people that I'm swinging back and forth on from one extreme to the other as I read the thread. Mainly it's Di, Kath, Mith, and SPM. I swear, sometimes I think they're completely innocent, and then two minutes later I'm ready to vote for them. With SPM though it may just be that I have an inclination to get into it with him as I have in past villages. That's why I didn't do a Roa-style myself on him. I wanted to see others do it- people who don't have my fight-with-SPM urges.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 12:56 AM

One brief thought that came to me upon reskimming the thread: The "who would Fea choose as a WW" argument is worth nothing. She handpicked the whole lot of us - there's not one who is easily expendable or a "most likely to get lynched on the first day" candidate. She would have loved to make each and any of us a werewolf. Can you imagine how difficult it must have been for her to choose only two?!

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 01:47 AM

I'm not all that proud of my catch yesterday...I stooped to conquer...

SPM was right to say that my "honeytrap" was actually less real than it might have looked. Declaring my ploy was in itself a ploy, to create some spurious evidence and encourage Eomer votes. Still, I suppose the fact it all worked was a Good Thing.

I notice Nogrod is no longer entirely saintly in the phantom's view. Care to tell, o phantom, why you were previously so sure that you warned Mith off him? Or is it merely that the sight of people defying your innocence list is painful to you?

Last night's kill was, of course, the unanimous choice of one wolf. I thought it was going to be me, actually. LMP seems to fit the pattern of killing the relatively quiet and trailless, though not as much as morm did.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 02:01 AM

...that should be "whom" would Fea choose, of course. For someone like me, used to rereading my own posts and editing to correct all typos, spelling and grammar errors, the non-editing rule is indeed annoying!

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 02:11 AM

I started doing a SpM analysis, which has so far entailed my studying his day 2 psots. I have come away with a groove on the side of my face that matches the edge of the desk perfectly, and a feeling that SpM is innocent. I'll try to come back tomorrow with something less vague. In the meantime, his posts are free for the reading....

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497858&postcount=157

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497898&postcount=171

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497899&postcount=172

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497916&postcount=180

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497917&postcount=181

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=498038&postcount=236

Mainly, I'm finding it hard to believe that he would kill Elempi after having him as a pet suspect. Unless his suspicion was all carefully voiced in order to make me think this way....... But really, it seems to me that a wolfish SpM would have kept LMP around.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 02:26 AM

Back to analysis of LPM's posts:

#178 replies to SPM's suspicions and asks the reason for them. His summary: SPM is just as dangerous in this game as any, whether innocent and a threat to the werewolves, or a werewolf and a threat to the village. The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy. Let us take care.

#176 defines his reasons for suspecting Di: "Protested too Prodigeously for my liking... ... her unnecessary defense which struck me as likely as not as that of a first time werewolf whose nerves have gotten to her."

His first day first vote for Ang can be seen in the context of previous happenings and was revoked anyway to vote for Di.

Going on the basis of his votes, his secondary prime candidate was obviously Di. Since he was astute enough to find out the one werewolf we've caught so far, he might be onto something there.

The other person on his werewolf list (#208) is Roa.

I would not let either SPM nor Phantom off the hook of possible werewolves. Though I have not yet considered Phantom guilty, I am well aware of his abilities and trust him to be able to double/triple/quadruple bluff his way through any game.

Any earlier LPM posts are not relevant to the current situation, as I see it.

The following voted for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, Di

Names on both lists: Ang (only initially and admittedly because of an old grudge, so probably not a serious suspicion)

phantom - always to be taken seriously as a possible threat

Diamond - for the same reason I myself had - too vociferous in her protestation of innocence. Anyone can say it, but making a rule of it is going too far!

So far, that would keep Di on top of my list of suspects. Right now, the others on that list are SPM and possibly phantom.

As to the others, several are relatively unknown to me, so I have no idea how to assess them. It's still early in the day, so maybe more evidence will show up.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 04:03 AM

He he. So Eomer was a Wolf. Who’d have thunk it? :D

I would wager that, if the Dark Lady did hand pick one of her servants, then this was the one. If so, then the other Wolf was either a random choice or (more likely, on the basis of what we have been told so far) indirectly selected in some way. Either way, they are going to be more difficult to find.

It is difficult to draw many conclusions from the votes for Eomer yesterday. I am tempted to wonder whether the other Wolf had spotted Eomer’s furry inclinations and took the opportunity to help eliminate him. However, it just as likely that the other Wolf did not vote for Eomer, either because he/she did not spot him or because he/she was more intent on trying to kill innocents. So, I am doubtful that the votes themselves will tell us much. That said, the timing of them or the reasoning given might well hold some clues, so those are matters that I will be looking further into.

I tend to think that Eomer was keen to find and eliminate his fellow Wolf. As I explained yesterday, it would be the sensible thing for a Wolf to do. Eomer’s vote for Kath was based on such reasoning (that one Wolf had been looking for the other in selecting morm as their kill) and the best Wolfish plans are often based upon an underlying truth. This would implicate Kath, who has certainly been keeping a low profile (although she has sought to explain that). However, it presupposes that Eomer was following such a plan and that he had correctly identified his fellow Wolf, neither of which is anything like certain. I remain unsure about Kath, but will bear this in mind.

Now, Elempi …

Ah, Elempi. I am sorry if I impaired your enjoyment of this rollercoaster-of-a-game, but I did suspect you, and not simply because it is traditional for me to do so. Heartless though it may sound, I am rather glad that you bought it in the night, as I would undoubtedly have carried on after you today were you still here. Your removal eliminates something of a stumbling block for me …

But where does this leave me? My mains suspects yesterday where Elempi, Eomer and Esty, with a smattering of Roa thrown in. However, I need to consider the implications of Elempi as choice of nightly kill and also ponder what has been said so far today.

To avoid giving further headaches to those who would seek to analyse my lengthy and verbose posts (;)), I will cut this short here and return anon with some further thoughts.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 04:26 AM

Elempi was a strange choice of kill. As I suggested before, his continued presence was diverting my attention from other possible Wolves, and he was also garnering suspicion in some other quarters (although not yet enough to warrant a vote from others).

So why kill him? One possibility is that it was an attempt to set me up. On the face of it, it seems unlikely that a Wolfish SpM would kill the villager that he suspected the most and voted for. But, because that is the obvious conclusion, a cunning Wolf may well have been seeking to implicate me as a double-bluffing Wolf.

Or was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list. That would implicate the phantom, Mithalwen and me.

Or possibly, the Wolf was one of those Elempi most suspected, which would implicate Diamond and Roa. Diamond more so, I think, because she has been in danger of being lynched on both of the previous days and so would be more concerned to eliminate one of the possible votes for her.

However, I tend to think it more likely that the Wolf was one whom Elempi neither particularly suspected nor trusted, as this leaves less of a trail and points instead towards those in the categories identified above. This would implicate Ang, Noggie, Kath and Esty.

Since I am still inclined (for now) to view Nogrod and Anguirel as innocent, Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 04:29 AM

...that's what I keep telling myself.

Only one werewolf in the game now.

Only one vote for me toDay.

It's simple - just vote for the one! ;)

Today I will be looking for the one person of whom I am most suspicious. Unless I get killed instead, either by lynching or by wolf, then I will concentrate on the next one.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 04:58 AM

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

...was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list.
Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.
Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.

Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.

Mithalwen

11-17-2006, 06:30 AM

Here ..no time ... and i thought LMP was the last wolf! Rethinking.. back later..

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 06:37 AM

The village slept, and the unhappy spirits slept uneasily in their graves, and the gravedigger dreamt of his death, and in his dream a child screamed, and a red-haired man looked blindly to his past, and a hound howled; and they returned to him, and a woman wept; and he heard the faint tap dance of rolling dice.This leapt out at me from the narration of our gravedigger’s death. Not sure if it means anything, but if there are clues to be found they may be here. Any red-haired men present? :D

I am afraid that I can’t read much into the votes for Eomer yesterday. Ang voted based upon his “honey-trap”, but could that have been a convenient pretext for him to attack his fellow Wolf? He has himself stated that his “declaration of ploy” was in itself a ploy to encourage votes for Eomer. Then again, the same might be said of the votes cast by the phantom and Mithalwen, both of whom indicated that they were relying upon Ang’s reasoning (although TP has given some further explanation for his vote today – ex post facto, as it were). By the time that Diamond voted, Eomer’s fate was pretty much sealed and, to the extent it was not (because there were a few votes that might have changed), she has the excuse that she voted to save herself (although I suppose that this might in itself be regarded as suspicious).

As for the other votes, I agree with the phantom that Kath’s stands out most. But it could go either way. Either she was sufficiently unconcerned about herself not to make her own position more secure (which would indicate innocence) or she did not want to give the impression that she was trying to save herself (which might suggest Wolfishness). It should be noted that Boro, an innocent, could have voted on Day 1 in a manner more likely to save himself, for Diamond for example, but did not.

Eek! :eek: When I read Roa’s damning analysis of Estelyn, I was all but ready to vote for her (Esty, that is), particularly as it ties in with much of my own thinking with regard to our milkmaid. Then I saw Roa’s analysis of me …

I particularly recall similar hatchet jobs being done on me twice in past games. One was produced by an innocent Diamond, the other by a guilty Kath. In both cases, I was innocent, I might add. The one time that I was a Wolf, I left very little material to enable such a hatchet job to be done. Take that as you will, but I must comment on some aspects of Roa’s analysis:

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly.I explained yesterday the way my thinking on the phantom has gone. I still currently believe him innocent, albeit with a paranoid imp on my shoulder stubbornly telling me how much a Wolfish phantom would love it that I think him innocent and how foolish I will look if he does turn out to be our remaining Wolf …

His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure.My reasoning on “heavy statements of innocence” was that, if the Wolves were in competition rather than playing as a team, then they would be more concerned than normal to avoid being killed (thus losing) and so might defend themselves more vigorously than normal if in danger of being lynched. I would not regard an individual’s declaration of innocence prior to any suspicion being cast in their direction as particularly Wolfish. Quite the opposite, in fact, given the attention that it would be likely to attract (and indeed has, in Diamond’s case, attracted). Hence my concerns with regard to Elempi’s (and your) reasoning over Diamond.

He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?Again, I explained this yesterday. It is, in any event, an idea which is no longer relevant, save (possibly) in the analysis of Eomer’s vote and the votes cast yesterday for him.

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

...was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list. Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.My analysis was based upon Elempi’s list at #208 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497967&postcount=208), which you yourself highlighted as possibly being an important clue.

A Wolf might well choose to kill an innocent who had included that Wolf on his “probably innocent” list, since the death prompts the conclusion that he/she had no reason to kill that villager.

My view, however, is that the Wolf is more likely to have killed an innocent who regarded him/her as nether particularly guilty-looking nor particularly innocent-looking (for the reason I explained - it leaves less of a trail). Hence my concentration on those whom Elempi was unsure about. Since I am inclined to trust Ang and Nogrod for the time being, and already had more reason to be concerned about you and Kath, Elempi’s list points me towards the two of you.

The phantom was following similar reasoning in his post #263 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=498171&postcount=263), save that, unlike me, he draws no conclusions from the analysis.

Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.Look, I’m just trying to indicate where my current thoughts are leading me. It’s up to you whether you think my reasoning has any merit or not.

I must devote myself to my loyerly duties for a while. At present, however, my current “list” is:

Main suspect: Estelyn
Could go either way: Kath, Roa, Diamond
Tending to think innocent: The phantom, Nogrod, Mithalwen, Anguirel

I'll probably be pilloried for having such an extensive "innocent" list. I usually am. But I have little reason other than fear of the consequences to suspect any of those last four at the moment.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 06:53 AM

Of one thing we can be sure - a lone wolf will fight hard to stay alive toDay. That may not be loud, but I should think it will be discernable. Saucy, your strange suspicion of me makes me feel like you're fighting now. I can't think of any other reason for you to put me at the top of your list.

Others will have to judge which person they think is acting suspiciously today.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-17-2006, 07:33 AM

Let every eye negotiate for itself
And trust no agent; for beauty is a witch
Against whose charms faith melteth in blood.

--From Much Ado About Nothing (II, i, 178-180)

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 07:33 AM

I can't think of any other reason for you to put me at the top of your list.Er - because those I suspected most yesterday (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497916&postcount=180) were Elempi, Eomer, you and Roa. Two of those are now dead and you look more suspicious to me at the moment than Roa. As I said, her analysis of you echoed much of what I had been thinking. Despite her analysis of me, that makes me more comfortbale with her and less with you.

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 08:01 AM

I had rather be a canker in a hedge than a rose in his grace; and it better fits my blood to be disdained of all than to fashion a carriage to rob love from any: in this, though I cannot be said to be a flattering honest man, it must not be denied but I am a plain-dealing villain. I am trusted with a muzzle and enfranchised with a clog; therefore I have decreed not to sing in my cage. If I had my mouth, I would bite; if I had my liberty, I would do my liking: in the meantime, let me be that I am, and seek not to alter me.

I'm getting rather tired of Much Ado, Dark Floozy. Slip us some History or Tragedy; save the comedy for after the death of your second wolf, I would, when this really will be Much Ado About Nothing...

Sauce said exactly the same about LMP's death as the phantom, down to the very categorisation of suspects, at greater length. This fairly superfluous reasoning does make me wonder.

However, I am not at all suspicious regarding his denunciation of LMP - it's perfectly in character for an innocent Sauce, earnestly trying to find a wolf, who just can't help suspecting, practically against his will, his own foe.

We have a great advantage in numbers as it stands, and even if we bag another wolf today that will not, I understand, free us from the Dark Deary's sport. So I'm tempted to relax and revert to a bit of grudge-fulfillment. I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory, Silmarils and luthien, but to a Beckettian anti-climax.

I remain entirely unconvinced about Diamond's guilt and now also am pretty certain of Kath's innocence...

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:09 AM

So the other wolf was a careful one...

But the other then? After reading toDay through I must say that there are a couple of names that have caught my attention.

Esty: First and foremost the way she has changed her style toDay after being suspected. She hasn't looked at all just a girl who want's to have fun lately. Also her clinging to tp's innocence in the beginning (as Roa pointed out), but more so her abandoning that posture toDay as there is no other wolf left.

Kath: Overcareful. Her vote yesterDay: just after I had voted for her and quite loudly proposed that a wolf would like to bandwaggon here more than in normal games just to save themselves (as the waggons are much harder to "read" here), she votes contrary to that suspicion with at least a seeming risk. I'm not sure she was in anything like grave danger yesterDay anyhow, so I might regard that choice quite safe. The possible Eomer-point (this is the weak one here).

Spm: I'm still a bit uneasy with his pregame-PM and lmp's death, if it can be seen as pointing anywhere, would point at Spm. I do not believe Spm is framed here to look guilty. But I might believe Spm to have done that himself to say he has been framed. Also his quite bold words of happiness at the fresh grave would make him look innocent and pure, not the least as lmp had moved him to the innocent list (which Spm now tries to downplay as a source!), but from Spm I might also believe that kind of trickery.

I'll try to look at these a bit more closely toDay. I think we might have the one wolf here.

But I will also try to have time to look at those who have somewhat flied under my radar this far. It seems to be a high time for me too to have opinions about you others... :)

I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory? Playing only to win? How sad...

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:12 AM

Darn anti-edit rules! With Esty there in my post above should be quotation marks around: as there is no "other wolf" left. Looks pretty confident without them. And I'm not.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 08:25 AM

Hey, staying alive is the prerequisite to having fun! I'm just trying to stick around for a bit...

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:46 AM

I really ought to be loyering, but when one is sitting at one’s desk with internet access, it is difficult to resist the temptation to keep returning. :rolleyes:

Anguirel, stop fiddling while Rome burns. I don’t for one minute believe that this game will continue after the death of the final Wolf, so please let’s do our best to find said villain as soon as we can. We may have the advantage in numbers for now, but there is little sense in squandering it unnecessarily.

Sauce said exactly the same about LMP's death as the phantom, down to the very categorisation of suspects, at greater length. This fairly superfluous reasoning does make me wonder.I was conscious of that at the time I posted. I would, however, have been loathe to explain how the analysis had affected my thinking without going through it. And Esty would have had even more cause to jump on me for my apparent lack of logic … ;)

… and now also am pretty certain of Kath's innocence...Care to explain why? Is this because her vote yesterday seems unmotivated by any desire to save herself? Or is there anything else that makes you so certain?

Esty: First and foremost the way she has changed her style toDay after being suspected. She hasn't looked at all just a girl who want's to have fun lately.I noticed that too. An innocent under pressure might act the same way, I suppose, but the change is quite striking.

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 09:12 AM

Sauce, have you not seen this, or do you simply disbelieve it?

You'll find out who wins when there's one person left and I let you know what his or her role is.

So I intend to fiddle all I like. Qualis artifix perebo!

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 09:14 AM

Ahem, that should be qualis artifex perebo. Also, Sauce, your assumption about Kath's vote is right, and I also feel her general mood is out of "assassination" and into "unassuming and preoccupied". At the moment.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 09:16 AM

Sauce, have you not seen this, or do you simply disbelieve it?The latter. I see no point in prolonging the game beyond the death of the second Wolf, and so firmly believe that we will be told as and when the last lupine kicks the proverbial bucket.

the phantom

11-17-2006, 09:53 AM

I notice Nogrod is no longer entirely saintly in the phantom's view. Care to tell, o phantom, why you were previously so sure that you warned Mith off him?
I'm not sure if he went down in my eyes- I just sort of reshuffled my list a bit and made it more difficult to break into my top top category. But like I said before, every time I reread I want to nudge everyone slightly one way or the other from where I had them before.

Later today I promise I'll try to go over at least two or three people's posts and firmly categorize them. Nogrod will be one of them, just for you.
We have a great advantage in numbers as it stands, and even if we bag another wolf today that will not, I understand, free us from the Dark Deary's sport. So I'm tempted to relax and revert to a bit of grudge-fulfillment. I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory, Silmarils and luthien, but to a Beckettian anti-climax.
I'm not sure what to think. If Fea will indeed allow this village to continue forever, then all I'm going to do is just lynch everyone in order of my suspicions until only myself and Ang remain.

And SPM- you've been continuing on today with your "wolf-guns-for-wolf" idea. It's really getting distracting to me. Yesterday you said this-
My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.
Don't assume things like that. Maybe you would be a disloyal go-it-alone WW, but I would not be. Not ever.

Under normal game format (WWs know each other, Seer, Ranger, etc) the only time I sacrifice a WW is if the Seer appears to have spotted him/her.

In this format, where you can't expect anyone to know anything and the WWs don't know each other, I would never at any point feel that I had to try and kill my fellow WW.

For a WW in this village the scenarios from best to worst are-
1) WW win, both WWs survive
2) WW win, only survives himself
3) WW win, only partner survives
4) Villager win, both WWs killed

Why would I want to take my #1 and #3 options out of play purposefully? That's silly.

If you truly honestly believe that WWs should gun for each other or that you would gun for your brother/sister WW if you were one, then you just have much less of a team attitude than me.

This is why I'm a little more suspicious of you today, SPM. Frankly, I can't grasp how anyone could ever think that a WW would kill its partner purposefully when that would decrease the chances of winning by 50%. That's stupid. I'm wondering if you in fact don't agree with me but you are trying your best to enforce this silly notion on us in order to mislead us.

Please explain yourself.

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 09:57 AM

The latter. I see no point in prolonging the game beyond the death of the second Wolf

Killjoy!

++SAUCEPAN PREACHER OF THE PRESBYTERIANS

the phantom

11-17-2006, 10:07 AM

I'll be back in about seven hours- four hours before the deadline.

Have fun.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 10:26 AM

Killjoy!Profligate! :p ;)

Please explain yourself. :rolleyes:

I have explained numerous times, seemingly to your distraction, my competitive Wolf theory, why I entertained it, how I thought that it would affect the Wolves' behaviour and why I thought that it was in one Wolf's best interests to strive to eliminate the other. If you still don't understand my approach, go and re-read my posts and all that the Dark Lady has said on the matter. It's of marginal relevance now that we are down to one Wolf, so I see little point in expounding on it (and thus distracting you) further.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 11:35 AM

I just thought that I'd check how active each villager has been, so I looked to see how many times each of us has posted.

As at the time of posting (and including this post), the running total is as follows:

the phantom: 53
Estelyn Telcontar: 34
The Saucepan Man: 29
Anguirel: 27
Diamond18: 23
Mithalwen: 23
Roa_Aoife: 23
Littlemanpoet: 18
Feanor of the Peredhil: 16
Nogrod: 14
Eomer of the Rohirrim: 12
Kath: 11
Boromir88: 7
Mormegil: 7
Bêthberry: 3

I fully expected the phantom and myself to top the list, and was surprised to see myself only in third place. I was also surprised to see margin by which the phantom leads, although he has chipped in with a fair few one-liners from time to time.

But what really took me back was Esty being in second place. Does anyone else find this alarming, given how quiet she has come across, before today at least?

I am also slightly concerned by Kath's low ranking, although it does not surprise me. Come on Kath, it's Day 3 now. Time to start contributing more! :p

And who is this Bêthberry person? ;)

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 12:04 PM

Saucy, I'm not the only player who has PS posted to correct mistakes, since editing is not allowed. And the three brief posts that amused you yesterDay were not exactly serious contributions. Post count is not a logical factor for calculating the chance of one of us being a werewolf.

Every post you write only increases my suspicion of you - your arguments are not logical.

Roa_Aoife

11-17-2006, 12:20 PM

No time, I may not be back later.

++Esty

She's my most telling suspect right now, and I don't have the time or energy to continue with SPM at the moment.

Mithalwen

11-17-2006, 12:40 PM

Right I am back - sorry for the short post but I have had to basically learn a new job in a week to cover for a colleague and today was her last day in so I was in early left late and had an uber short lunch break... while it is obviously less important in the scheme of things than compromising the well being of their children, people do get a bit grumpy if you mess up with their investments ( so unreasonable of them ... it is only money...) ...I do have a few ideas but I want to read through first .... .

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 01:34 PM

[Spock voice]Loyers are illogical![/Spock voice]

Careful, people - don't let Saucy mess with your heads! All I ask is that you read his posts and make your own judgement. Remember, he comes from a profession in which talking a lot without saying anything of substance is a primary ability!

I'm a villager, not a loyer![/Bones voice]

I may not be able to contribute much more to this discussion, as my day is almost over, and family matters have top priority this evening. Most of you will have your prime posting time when I can't participate. I hope that you will come to the conclusion that his sudden case against me today is without basis.

Should I be lynched or killed toDay or toNight, look in his direction, for he is being very vociferous in accusing an innocent.

[Borg voice]Post count is irrelevant - you will all be assimilated.[/Borg voice]

...not by me, but very possibly by

[B]++The Saucepan Man

Should anyone wonder why I have concentrated on SPM for toDay's argumentation, there are two reasons:

1 - His sudden attempt to brand me as guilty, with no real substance behind his reasoning. As I know myself to be innocent, I find that very suspicious.

2 - Hardly anyone else posted during the time I had available - there was really very little interaction with the rest of the villagers. I couldn't gain any new insights from posts by others.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 01:42 PM

Post count is not a logical factor for calculating the chance of one of us being a werewolf. Crude analysis simply by reference to the number of posts most certainly is not. But, when taken into account with other factors, it is a relevant consideration. My concern about you is that you have seemed quiet while actually posting quite a lot.

Every post you write only increases my suspicion of you - your arguments are not logical.They are relevant to me. Whether they are relevant to anyone else is a matter for them. However, your increasing focus on me somehow makes me less suspicious of you. I am not so sure that a Wolf would be putting all her eggs in just one innocent target, so to speak.

One thing intrigues me. Much of the debate has focussed on Esty and I today. How did that happen? Possibly because Roa chose the two of us as the sole subjects today for her infamous and impressive analyses. And seemingly, she had made her mind up before carrying out those analyses (in my case at least).

I wonder if there may be more than one puppet-mistress plaguing this village ...

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 01:51 PM

Cross-posted with Esty, and her vote. :rolleyes:

All I ask is that you read his posts and make your own judgement.That's all I ask, too.

A plea to all innocent villagers. I don't really mind getting lynched, but please don't let this become a two-horse race between Esty and me. I am not a Wolf and, while I have my suspicions of her, I am by no means certain that Esty is either. If she is not, then a two-horse race today will place the Wolf under no pressure and the votes will tell you nothing tomorrow.

I'll throw another candidate into the ring:

++Roa_Aoife

I am increasingly concerned over the way that she seemingly started of the day with the intention of bringing about this developing two-horse race.

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 02:06 PM

Nice, Sauce. You are acting exactly as I, guilty or innocent, would act in your position, and bringing up important options.

But my vote for you will stand for now, though it was cast without any sincerity whatsoever. I want to watch more nail-biting in the stalls of the audience as I fiddle...

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 02:17 PM

One thing intrigues me. Much of the debate has focussed on Esty and I today. How did that happen? Possibly because Roa chose the two of us as the sole subjects today for her infamous and impressive analyses. And seemingly, she had made her mind up before carrying out those analyses (in my case at least).I guess we all know that those who are being talked about are much more prone to be lynched than those we do not discuss. I also know Roa to be the master of that tactics: bringing people into the foreground - and if they seem to be dropping from there, lightly adjusting the situation and knocking them back to the center of the stage again. But she does that as an innocent too if she suspects someone.

But because the basic dynamics of these games seem to be that the involved ones get lynched and the silents, funnies or zero-contributors (or whatever - I'm speaking of a normal game here) do not, I always like to see to it that we reverse the trend - if there are no actual reasons to act otherwise. Now as we have killed our careful wolf here, I'm not sure whether the other one is as careful too, or whether my principles hold here in the first place.

But I still find the enemy that lurks in the shadows, under any radars that could give me an idea about it's hiding place to be the most creepy enemies. And in a situation of general doubt would like to vote that way.

I'll go back to the thread now.

Mithalwen

11-17-2006, 02:43 PM

One of hte reasons that I was suspecting LMP before his death was that having caught a wolf on this side of the Atlantic who definitely falls in to the flamboyant category it might be more likely that our other wolf might be more likely to be a north american assasin type. However it depends how genuinely random the second wolf was ... and we can't be certain that Eomer whetehr Eomer was "chosen" or "random". As a mod, it is tempting to restart the random selection if the balance looks wrong. However with no gifteds and a high calibre group of players it is less likely to be tempted to tinker than if you draw very experienced gifted versus a team of wolves who are novice, notoriously absent, isolated by timezone, or vice versa

Since while there are some players who actively seem to prefer having a special role, others may be less avid but still highly competent. This means that I can't rule any of you out. However I feel more suspicious of Diamond, Esty, SpM and Kath than the rest.

I changed my vote for Nogrod, partly because Ang seemed so certain and even if he were a wolf disposing of his rival, it would advantage us all to get rid of a wolf.

And I did a quick last look at Noggins posts and while they were few they seemed normal. And Eomer had been almost as quiet....

Oh , sorry if I have missed anyone else mentioning this, but I do think it likely that Morm was Eomer's choice of victim given their history.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 03:35 PM

I took a quick skim over Estelyn and looked also Roa's bit on her. I think that from Roa's points the one calling attention to Esty's trust on tp is noteworthy whereas her point on Estelyn bandwaggoning is a bit more hazy... it looks to me more an evil eye cast on her than Estelyn being so suspicious on that particular thing.

The points Roa made about her frothiness, "Newbie defence", one-liners, pessimism about logic, lending the points of others... Well I can't see them as actual points to suspect her. The load of it makes one think, surely, but anyhow.

What Roa did was something I have called "A Devil's Advocate" -view over someone. Looking at someone's posting with the evil eye, trying to see any suspicious things you could find and gathering them to a summary. She has done that before, and I have done those - not to speak of the master of the art Spawn... I guess we all have done those as both innocents and villains. So making of them does not make one suspicious, but the reactions to them do count.

But then again, after that was posted I think a few important things happened. More important ones that were included in Roa's analysis - the reactions, as I said. And these are why I have started to suspect Estelyn somewhat.

After Roa's analysis tp included Estelyn in his "needs to be examined closely" -list with Di. Then Esty came in and changed her way of play considerably by starting to give different scenarios from where to look and even included tp in her lists (only mentioning him as among those who voted for Eomer, but that was possibly the first time she mentioned tp without saying she trusts him!).

And she continues by analysing Spm (girl's who just wanna have fun don't go analysing Spm of all possible people!). And just after a while she goes to say about tp: always to be taken seriously as a possible threat.

Quite noteworthy might also be the fact that after she had been notified about her change of attitude she readjusted again, bringing lighter jokes in her posting - but still she seems to be wholeheartedly taking part by casting suspicion over already suspected targets, mainly Spm as he has been suspected the most after herself toDay.

Also this should be noted, although it's an old story, it should be quoted in its entirety here: Well, I think I was chosen mainly because I so seldom participate in WW games, the trophy bird of paradise in Fea's glass menagerie, so to speak. That keeps this game from being a collection of the usual suspects, who have all played with or against each other many times. Perhaps she thought that would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...Would an innocent say it this way?

She surely tops my suspicion list this far.

But I will be coming with some thoughts about others in a moment.

Mithalwen

11-17-2006, 04:09 PM

Arrgh

I have been reading and rereading and getting nowhere and I must vote soon.

Since I can not be certain of the innocence of any of you - and in these circumstances that is a compliment - I must think of the lesser evil... the odds are not good of picking a wolf. So thoughts on you all:

Ang Not a priority, his posts are delightful and I would like more of them. If I were to be mean, I don't think he has survived as a wolf yet. To do so would mean a lot to him especially this game. He is not high up on my suspect list but if he would be a more flamboyant type . Eomer and Ang is one of the least probable combos I think.. but see my earler post for reasons why this line of thinking is far from fool proof.

Diamond We know she has a ruthlessly cunning mind even if she has not been a werewolf previously. First day posting was a bit over the top, as were the Diamond's rule stuff - marker of novice wolf. Closer to my offender profile to balance Eomer in being female, american ... wolfing style uncertain evidement... Bit too keen to get Boro lynched.... Boro didn't seem that suspicious to me and his instincts for the game are very astute ... I can't help thinking that wolves would be keener to get him out of the way than innocents.

Esty High post count was a factor in my gaining Fenris Wolf status. Lots of sound but ..... not substantial ...and frothy is another of "my words" :p
May be necessary to lynch her because she is too much of an unknown quantity. Nasty perhaps but pragmatic....

Kath The assassin wolf par excellance would be an excellent contrast to Eomer - she has a knack of never being quite the most suspicious person. She has been very quiet - maybe if she was wolfish she would have made her presence felt more.

Nogrod Could say much the same again .... been around more, posts seem true to form but experienced enough now to "play the part"

Phantom Still Loud but the idea of TP and Eomer both being wolves doesnt work for me yet ..

time.....time..time..

Roa Her analysis are plausible (and I would point out that I am not anti proper analysis - ie examining evidence and drawing conclusions, what annoys me is people just saying what others have said without making any points. That just clogs up the thread and makes someone look present without actually giving anything of themselves away. We all know wolves who have done this I am sure) .... but then she can do this as a wolf .... again I am not quite convinced of Eomer and Roa as a wolf pairing. Both are so high profile ..but that could be a bluff and there is no seer .....

Sauce Wouldn't actually kill him for being a lawyer .... but it has to be born in mind that lawyers are trained to present cases....... and he could certainly play the helpful villager as well as any...

Mithalwen

11-17-2006, 04:14 PM

I have to decide and this is the choice I feel is most pragmatic. There are two deciding factors .... how suspicious they seem and how well I know their style of play (we have so little concrete evidence that subjectivity has to fill in...) so though I am not convinced absolutely it has to be

++Estelyn Telcontar

Besides I am lactose intolerant .... all that waving glasses of milk around is making me queasy.....

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 04:29 PM

I just came back and here's the tally - we should start seeing these too.

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)

It's all open with Di, Kath, tp and myself to vote.

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 04:35 PM

And another summary from me -

Anguirel - Should have, and could have, contributed more today, I know. Am voting unhelpfully and feeling generally a bit inert and cavalier. Who knows, this rusting spring could see action yet.

Diamond18 - Was until recently the general favourite of the village for lynching, though now Esty, interestingly one of her main accusers, is drawing much of the attention she formerly attracted. To me she seems vintage Audrey, but I haven't much liked her quietness today, I admit, nor the quietness of others about her.

Estelyn Telcontar - I tend to feel she's attracting paranoia votes, unfortunately. The point Roa and Nogrod made about her use of language talking about her inclusion seems to me rather unlikely evidence. Her dogged pursuit of Diamond, in a typical misguided innocent manner, made her look fairly innocent to me before.

Kath - Comes across as pretty relaxed, but is getting silenter and silenter. Like the phantom though I really can't envisage Eomer pursuing his presumed fellow wolf, unless he thought his own fate was close at hand and wanted to improve her position.

Mithalwen - a wee bit Machiavellian on her last post re: Esty? Seems uncharacteristic. Is buying into the two-horse race. Hmmm. She could just really want to know the truth about the milkmaid.

Nogrod - Quality and not quantity seems his current maxim, but he is providing plenty of the former and I'm finding him useful as a veteran foe of Roa's. He's not going to be blinded by analysis. But like Sauce and LMP, he might oppose it just because.

Roa_Aoife - Were I seriously pursuing a wolf at the moment, I'd probably gun for Roa, having some basic agreement with Sauce and Nogrod that her building up of two candidates is pretty convenient.

the phantom - I'm not yet as certain about him as he appears about me. In fact, if the opportunity arises, I might well help lynch him, partly because his honed mind strips forth things that even non-wolfs like to be discreet about...and we have many feuds, of course. But at least he's quite funny.

The Saucepan Man - I haven't done anything out of "sheer devilry" for some time, but my act now regarding Sauce is a regress to the diabolical. Partly I'm interested to see if he comes out with anything when under pressure. It's called the "Torquemade Torture Procedure..."

And my vote stays on Sauce, with twenty minutes to change my mind...

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 04:56 PM

--the Saucepan Man, ++roa_aoife

Anguirel

11-17-2006, 04:57 PM

Argh. Sorry, dear target, in my haste I forgot to capitalise you...

the phantom

11-17-2006, 05:24 PM

The voting thus far-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 05:31 PM

Our first Day suspicion getters by vote count were:
tp 3 votes - 1 takeback (D1), 0 votes (D2)
Di 3 votes (D1), 3 votes - 1 takeback (D2)
Spm 2 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes - 1 takeback (D3 –so far)

It’s nice to see the trend here.

tp was highly suspiced on Day1 but after that no one has “dared” to vote him – or has been affirmed by his innocence.

Di gained votes on Day1 and on Day2 but now it seems no one thinks her suspicious.

Spm has a nice curve: highly suspected on Day1, left in peace in Day2 and now in the frontline again.

Those who have gained suspicion after Day1 are:
Kath 0 votes (D1), 2 votes (D2)
Estelyn 0 votes (D1), 1 vote (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far)
Roa 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far)

Kath had a “peak” on Day 2 after remaining in the shadows on Day1. ToDay she’s again laying low.

Estelyn was clearly handled with care on Days 1&2 but seems to be gaining on suspicion as the game clearly starts to wind up.

Roa went under everyone (no one daring to challenge her?) both of the first Days but now seems to be gearing up with votes.

Those who have been mildly suspected and once voted for – albeit the votes have been taken aback:
Ang 1 vote - 1 takeback (D1), 0 votes (D2)
Nogrod 0 votes (D1), 1 vote - 1 takeback (D2)

Ang was ranted over on Day1, after that it's been very quiet...

Nogrod I can't comment here, I think.

No one has seriously suspected:
Mith 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2)

Mith seems too good to be true?

~~~~~~
I guess we all had something like the hunch of this but if we add to this the voters we might have more information...

Then it starts to look like this:

tp 3 votes - 1 takeback (D1) Ang, Spm, Kath; tb by Spm, 0 votes (D2)

Di 3 votes (D1) Roa, lmp, tp, 3 votes - 1 takeback (D2) lmp, esty, Roa; tb by lmp

Spm 2 votes (D1) Nogrod, Boro, 0 votes (D2), 2 votes - 1 takeback (D3 –so far) Ang, Esty; tb by Ang

Kath 0 votes (D1), 2 votes (D2) Eomer, Nogrod

Estelyn 0 votes (D1), 1 vote (D2) Kath, 2 votes (D3 – so far) Roa, Mith

Roa 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far) Spm, Ang

Ang 1 vote - 1 takeback (D1) lmp, 0 votes (D2)

Nogrod 0 votes (D1), 1 vote - 1 takeback (D2) Mith

Mith 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2)

~~~~~~~
I'll try to comment this one soon. Need some thinking and a cigarette... :confused:

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 05:32 PM

tp was highly suspiced on Day1suspiced? :D (those anti-edit rules...)

the phantom

11-17-2006, 05:37 PM

What to do.... what to do....

Here's who I already know that I'm not going to vote for today for one reason or another-
the phantom (duh)
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
SPM

So that leaves-
Di
Esty
Kath
Roa

I will try my best to give each of the four a read-over sometime in the next three hours. I haven't read all the posts that have been made today, but I'll get to them as soon as I can (I'm bogged down with a large and unexpected project).

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 06:28 PM

What Roa did was something I have called "A Devil's Advocate" -view over someone. Looking at someone's posting with the evil eye, trying to see any suspicious things you could find and gathering them to a summary. She has done that before, and I have done those - not to speak of the master of the art Spawn... I guess we all have done those as both innocents and villains. So making of them does not make one suspicious, but the reactions to them do count. I certainly agree with the last point. As for whether the making of the analyses renders Roa suspicious, I would welcome hearing from her why she chose Esty and I. I have not looked back, but my recollection is that she posted her analysis of Esty, then posted a list identifying Esty and I as “probable Wolves”, then went on to analyse me. I get the impression that she had decided (for whatever reason - possibly virtuous, possibly malign) that Esty and I were her suspects for toDay and then went on to analyse us with that in mind.

Someone (Ang?) mentioned before that her timing (Daybreak and Dusk) were fortuitius for a Wolf. And, if she is a Wolf, she has used that to her advantage. She seems to have had a large hand (paw?) in setting today’s agenda.

Wouldn't actually kill him for being a lawyer .... but it has to be born in mind that lawyers are trained to present cases....... Oh, I’m no glory-seeking fancy-dan advocate. Simply a corporate background boy. However, I do rather pride myself on being able to present convincing positon papers. ;)

I know. Am voting unhelpfully and feeling generally a bit inert and cavalier.Hehe. I almost labelled you as “cavalier” rather than “profligate” before, but did not because I feared you might take it as a compliment. :D

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode? :p

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 06:47 PM

Well just looking at the bare facts - and then interpreting them a little...

tp was one of the favourite-suspects on Day1. After that he has not gained any substantial suspicion - Roa and myself and I think some others have given a point or two against him after that, but nothing of any consequence. To counter that many a people have been happy to affirm their trust on him. Just that alone should ring some bells... So is he just so convincing with his innocence? Or is there a fear-factor involved by which no one wishes to suspect him?

At least his voting record is more than safe (according to the standards I think fit here eg. the wolves are not afraid to bandwaggon, on the contrary). On Day1 he casted the last vote for Di (bringing her even with Boro). On Day2 he brought Eomer to 3 votes. I agree he's an asset if innocent but I wouldn't count on it either. No one should go on unscrutinised...

Di was another favourite suspect on Days1 and 2. One of her voters was lmp we know is innocent but tp's vote (D1) does stand a bit safe there... Then again Di set entirely safe votes for Boro (the first vote of which no one can blame if the reason is ranting) on Day1 and for Eomer as the last voter on Day2 herself.

I don't know what to say of her. She introduced the law of Di being always innocent and told us she would be quitting WW after this one... that sounds genuine as I can't see her making a trick like that in a game. Or then she might do it. But probably not.

Spm is the hard nut to crack (who isn't?). He sounds the most reasonable one here and just because of that he should be lynched? No. There seems to be a bunch of situations where an intelligent Spm-wolf would have acted just the way he has (look my earlier posts for more) but still I feel him more innocent than guilty. But is my feeling right? I don't trust it even though I feel it.

But his voting record looks quite terrible. First he votes tp and changes to lmp, then on Day2 sticks with lmp as the first vote of the Day. Surely he can say his votes have been fun and based on old rivalries, but due to that they are safe too... ToDay he jumps on Roa and that sounds more innocent, but not freeing in anyway. It was early enough and he will have his chance to change it if needs be... As I said, very hard to see.

But as I've said before, I'd like to see him in the game as he makes sense and if innocent would help us a lot. If a wolf, well, he'll slip sooner or later (if he hasn't already?).

Kath is an enigma here. Were she a wolf, she would be playing a wonderful game. A nasty tactics, I admit. But she's done that before and would be a nice and balancing wolf for Fea.

Her voting is a talking example of this. On Day1 a waggon vote on tp (the last of them) and on Day2 carefully sprerading the vote after I had commented about wolves wishing to narrow the suspects as long as they are not among them themselves.

But I can't say that is in some way conclusive. She might just be herself wishing to stay alive the first Days to gear up later... Not that I approve of the tactics, but if we're after the wolf here and not after the tactics we approve, then I'm not sure if there is enough reason to vote her.

Estelyn basically got through the first two Days by a goodwill. Even though the possibility of Fea choosing her was raised a few times. I've talked of her enough earlier so I will not say much here.

But she has brought someone up from one to two votes everyDay (Boro, Di, Spm)! Could anyone think of a safer way to be a wolf? I mean she withdraws early but she always votes for someone who already has votes...

Even though I feel wrong to suspect her my reason says she is a worthwhile candidate for a wolf.

Roa seems to be another fear-factor player here. No one dared to suspect her until Spm (by force) and Ang decided to give it a try (as she had gone away... how convenient?). She's a human, c'mon! I've lost to her, I've won her and I've also won with her!

She makes cases, yes she does. But she does them both innocent and a baddie. Her voting record is quite hard to interpret as she has voted for Di on two first Days (on Day1 starting the vore for Di, on Day2 closing it) and her vote for Esty toDay was quite well founded - I'm not making comments on how good the reasons were as I think I have lots of better reasons to suspect Esty, but that she had prepared a case for her first and then voted on grounds of it. Rational player voting if needing to go off early - or very rational wolf-voting.

I'm very unsure about her too. Somehow I'm inclined to see her as innocent this time, but something tells me otherwise. It just feels so stupid to suspect her in every game... *computing*

Ang and Mith to come (of whom I seem to know nothing)... I just need a break and will ease your reading by cutting this to smaller units... :D

I will also have to say something more definitive abut this too as I have to vote...

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 07:29 PM

Oh, this seems to be too much for me as it's a bit over 3AM here - well saturday to look for but I have to wake up at least around Mid-day...

So this will be short and to be continued if I'm alive toMorrow.

But I have checked some basics anyhow.

Both Ang and Mith were somewhat loud and careful at the same time on Day1.

After that I lose control of them (and have no time to read more properly) and find them more dizzying than informative. Well that suits Ang better than Mith as I think she feels quite herself. If she turns out the wolf we should all go and cry at the full moon one day after this...

Ang has voted somewhat safely and has behaved somewhat likewise. OnDay1 he casted the very first vote of the game for tp and on Day2 the first for Eomer early in the game. ToDay he has voted Spm first in the air of the earlier Days but then actually changed it to Roa. At the same time he has declared to fall into the fun-stuff as we can't win but still making the first steps to actually try to involve himself towards the results of the vote? Now what to say of this? Either something fishy or then just being in the funny mode and suddenly starting to think about it (just to save Spm, for instance?).

Mith on the contrary made the Bb-vote on Day1, but now as I look at it I'm not so sure how risky it was in the end - seems to have produced relative safety indeed... Her vote and the retraction for Eomer doesn't say much either. ToDay her vote on Esty seems pretty safe (others have made the case to look convincing enough) but she has plausible arguments on her behalf for it (pragmatism).

I will need to think a moment... a vote coming soon and then to bed... :)

the phantom

11-17-2006, 07:47 PM

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode?
Heh- I'm always in that mode.

As far as "serious analysis", throughout the game I've pretty much provided what I felt needed to be said. The vast majority of my thoughts I keep to myself, for this game is so incredibly hunch/feeling based (because of the lack of WW teams) that most of my thoughts are whimsical feelings, which change with every read-through. I mean, I can tear all sorts of holes in every thought I have, so why pass along such garbage to the village? It would only waste your valuable time.

But that said, I am going to at least do a little bit of "serious analysis".

I should like to start with firsts. First posts, that is. First posts might be as telling as anything. Mine was, I believe. ;)

Di's first post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497530&postcount=34)

Esty's first post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497494&postcount=11)

Kath's first post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497509&postcount=21)

Roa's first post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497696&postcount=114)

Di's first post is light, short, and plays on the idea of using grudges. It seems to be very much in line with her usual attitude. Of course, we've never seen her as a baddie, so who knows?

Esty's first post emphasises cluelessness, and she complains about not being able to influence the vote, and she doesn't like the idea of a random lynching. This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=422659&postcount=44) is Esty's first post from her other game (WW XII). There is a huge difference between the two. Why? Is it just role-play and nothing else?

Kath suggests that on Day 1 we lynch based on past grudges so that they're gone by Day 3 or so and we don't fall back onto them. I'm really intrigued by this. It seems to be a good thought and yet not helpful at all. She also says that there are ways of picking out the WWs despite the format. In her next post she says she doesn't have any grudges. How convenient considering she suggested lynching grudges. She posts a couple more times asking about the deadline and voting. She jokes about SPM in #87. Then she does another one liner. Then she votes for me and says that she's bandwagoning. Would a WW come out and say this? It seems to me the answer is yes.

Roa objects to Ang's comment about Fea wanting to break Roa's winning streak. She says "Hey! I've lost before. Ask Nogrod- he was there. Once, sure, but it still counts. And it was completely my fault. Curse my boldness! It was the end of me!" Is she trying to make herself look less dangerous? She doesn't like the Di-rule. Then she refutes my pessimism and says that the village is not powerless. Buttering up the chances of the villagers?

Okay...

Take my opinion with a ladle of salt, for I have not had time to go through and read all the posts of my four suspects. But as it stands right now my order of suspicion-
Kath
Roa and Esty
Di

I'm feeling like voting for Kath.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 07:58 PM

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)

So four votes left (and the possibility of some retractions...), Di, Kath , tp, Nogrod to vote.

I'm a bit wary of both Mith and Ang as they have kind of slipped under my radar so far. I know them both to be capable in their own manner. But still I can't see myself voting on them as I have nothing more specific or grounded for either of them.

Diamond I'm also quite ready to leave be for the moment. It's guts more than any reasoned arguments.

Roa I'm not at all in ease with, but Spm's concern about her choice of the ones to "analyse" set aside I have no reason to doubt her more than others. I could see her as the wolf Fea wished to be in... She has been a goodie also, well one or two times...

Spm I do suspect somewhat but I also think that he might be just a victim of being suspicious as he is a loud villager with good points and clearly present for all to see.

The same somewhat goes to tp. I might have millions of reasons to suspect him (and I do), but then again he seems contributing enough and with quality to not be my lynching choice for toDay.

That leaves me to my two suspects, Kath and Estelyn.

I have been suspecting Esty for a while now and could vote her on the basis of it. Still my guts say the opposite. It might be that Fea picked her just to fill this job but still I waver here...

Kath has been a bit too quiet toDay to be a wolf but otherwise I'm thinking of her as my primary suspect right now.

RL or tactics?

I can't say, so I'll vote for:

++ Kath

again.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:03 PM

Just as the last one for toDay...

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)
Nogrod - Kath (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 08:11 PM

Apologies for my absence. I'm not quiet, I'm just not around. Work. Sleep. The usual.

So, it's taken me an hour to read through everything once, if I try re-reading, I'll just miss the deadline. This bites, as I can't really read between the lines of anyone's posting, I haven't the time. So my decision on who to vote for comes down to this....

++Kath

Because, at this moment, it creates a three way tie between Esty, Roa, and Kath, and leaves their fates up to blind luck. Which is no worse a discerner of their guilt as I am.

I may change my mind based on Kath and tp's votes.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:31 PM

I am not so sure that Kath will be voting. It's 2.30am here in blighty.

Then again, she could end up voting in the aftermath of a wild freshman party ... :eek: :D

I have to say that I really don't think her a Wolf. If she were a lone Wolf, and she were able, I am sure that she would have been here today.

The alternative is that RL committments have been occupying her. In which case I think it rather unfair to lynch her, toDay at least.

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 08:37 PM

Alright... SpM... you've tugged at my heartstrings.

- - Kath

+ + SpM

Hey, you might live....

So, it's up to either tp or chance. Look at it this way, if tp is a wolf, he'd be winning no matter who I voted for.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 08:39 PM

I went to bed some hours ago with the feeling that I might be dead in this game when I awoke in the morning, and trying to reconcile myself to that fact.

[teenager depression thought mode]When I'm dead they'll know the truth and be sorry they treated me like that![/teenager depression thought mode]

I awoke early - and in time to do something about my pending death chances. The following vote is based partly on SPM's suspicions that Roa's analysis of the two of us was setting us up in a two-horse race. Partly, it's my last attempt to stay alive.

--The Saucepan Man

++Roa Aoife

the phantom

11-17-2006, 08:39 PM

If she were a lone Wolf, and she were able, I am sure that she would have been here today.
That's what is driving me nuts. Surely she would show up if she were a WW. But then again- why? Would her RL schedule magically change or something? I don't know about anyone else, but when I was a WW and when I wasn't I liked to show up. And if I couldn't show up then I plain old couldn't show up.

And what if we don't lynch her today because it would be "unfair". Will we use that reasoning tomorrow if she is absent again? This sort of thing (lack of evidence due to quietness) drives me absolutely nuts.

Remember WW III, SPM, where the pack of WWs turned out to be all quiet females if I'm not mistaken. Remember how long it took for everyone to catch on and be willing to lynch them and by then it was too late?

Grr...

If you want to sway my vote then speak now. The deadline approaches.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:40 PM

I was just turning to sleep and going to turn down the PC when I saw what had happened.

Spm you seem to have a point here... and I'm afraid that you're right.

But that arouses the question of whom should we vote for then? (your coming in talks very well of you, I must say)

I need to go to sleep but I'll promise to give this one more round of thought...

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:44 PM

And what if we don't lynch her today because it would be "unfair". Will we use that reasoning tomorrow if she is absent again? This sort of thing (lack of evidence due to quietness) drives me absolutely nuts.No. I am suggesting giving her one day's grace.

I am not at all sure that she's a Wolf anyway. Other than her quietness, there's not a lot to suggest it.

the phantom

11-17-2006, 08:44 PM

The voting-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)
Nogrod for Kath (1)
Di for Kath (2)
Di take back Kath (1)
Di for SPM (2)
Esty take back SPM (1)
Esty for Roa (3)

Busy day. This ought to make for some good stuff to analyze should we still be here tomorrow.

Roa-3, Esty-2, SPM-1, Kath-1

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:46 PM

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)
Nogrod - Kath (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)
Di - Kath (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath2)
Di - Spm [-Kath] (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)
Esty - Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa3, Kath1)

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:47 PM

Current tally (I think) is:

SpM - 1
Esty - 2
Kath -2
Roa - 3

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 08:47 PM

This was Nogrod's last tally. (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1) I haven't counted back and am assuming it's correct. Based on that, here's the new voting balance:

Kath: +1, -1
Saucy: +1, -1
Roa: +1

That means the above count still applies in all but one case: Roa now has 3 votes.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 08:48 PM

:D - four tally posts within a couple of minutes! The deadline must be drawing nigh...

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:48 PM

Yes, sorry. You're right. Kath currently has only 1 vote (Noggie's).

the phantom

11-17-2006, 08:51 PM

From my perspective, the only meaningful vote I could cast right now would be a vote to tie Esty with Roa.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:51 PM

I know this is somewhat haphazard but still there is something here...

I do not think Roa to be the villain. She just makes sense (even though she picked Spm and Esty - not poor choices, to scrutiny).

But Esty being here as I know she lives in Germany and is only one hour behind myself who stupidly plays this game aty 4.50AM...

So how come you are here if you're not wholly disturberd about your fate and why to be disturbed about a game if you were not indeed the wolf?

-- Kath

++ Estelyn, the wolf-queen

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:53 PM

I had been tending to view Roa as the more likely Wolf than Esty in the latter part of toDay, but I'm not sure what to make of Esty returning at this hour. Any thoughts, Noggie and TP?

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:53 PM

who stupidly plays this game aty 4.50AM...that meant myself, not Estelyn... but she's awake quite late too. Why? :smokin:

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:54 PM

I had been tending to view Roa as the more likely Wolf than Esty in the latter part of toDay, but I'm not sure what to make of Esty returning at this hour. Any thoughts, Noggie and TP?Look at my earlier post with the vote. That's what I think right now...

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:54 PM

Hehe. Cross-posted with Noggie, who had already answered with his vote ...

I could change my vote, or we could leave it to the Dark Lady's machinations ...

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 08:54 PM

Nogrod: The answer to your question is a remnant of jetlag from my recent trip. It's as simple as that. I'm "early to bed, early to rise" much of the time anyway, but still not quite back in Europe. However, if my waking early is what gets me lynched, so be it.

*shrugs

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 08:55 PM

I was going to say something interesting, but I forgot what it was....

You know, it's too late now, but I wish I could change my vote to Esty. Her popping up now and being so desperate to save her own skin seems rather wolfish. Or maybe I've just forgotten what it feels like to be an ordo and care.

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 08:57 PM

I cross-posted with... a lot. But I see that I'm not the only one thinking Esty's will to live a mite too strong.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:57 PM

I'm inclined to trust you on this Noggie, as you are something of a Roa expert (which doesn't mean I'll blame you tomorrow if it all turns out wrong, rest assured).

What say you phantom?

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:57 PM

It will go to Fea's dices again if no one changes...

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 08:57 PM

the phantom will remember that I made a point of waking up for the deadline of his game last year. And I was an innocent - one who managed to stay alive and win at the end!

the phantom

11-17-2006, 08:58 PM

So how come you are here if you're not wholly disturberd about your fate and why to be disturbed about a game if you were not indeed the wolf?
I don't agree with your reasoning. Why shouldn't an innocent want to save his own life?

The ONLY way for an innocent to guarantee victory for the village is to be the last person standing himself, for an ordo knows ONLY his OWN identity for sure.

Should an ordo be willing to sacrifice his own life? If there is a Seer or other gifted to protect, then yes, but there are none such individuals here. I personally have no plans of letting myself die at any point, and therefore I refuse to condemn Esty for it.

++Roa

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 08:58 PM

Roa3
Esty3

If I'm not wrong...

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:59 PM

Gotta do it now, if I'm going to do it.

--Roa_Aoife

++Estelyn Telcontar

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 08:59 PM

Ai! Utter confusion! :D

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 09:00 PM

I don't agree with your reasoning. Why shouldn't an innocent want to save his own life?
Why a wolf shouldn't? :D

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 09:00 PM

phantom's vote made Roa 4
Saucy's made me 4

The Dark Lady will have to roll dice, then a head.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 09:01 PM

Dices, I say... :eek:

the phantom

11-17-2006, 09:01 PM

It's a tie now, right?

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 09:01 PM

Saucy, I wish you'd have understood phantom's reasoning - he was right about me. Time will show.

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 09:01 PM

After all this, a tie. That's what I was going for an hour ago! :p

the phantom

11-17-2006, 09:02 PM

I think I might rather see a double lynch than a random dice roll.

Cause you know the survivor of the two will start tomorrow under the gun.

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 09:04 PM

oh, I don't know about that. I was tied with Boromir Day 1 and I'm still here.

The Saucepan Man

11-17-2006, 09:04 PM

No, as I retracted Roa, Esty will be the one lynched.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-17-2006, 09:05 PM

Day has ended. I'll delay posting a narrative just long enough to infuriate you all.

Estelyn Telcontar

11-17-2006, 09:05 PM

So if I had stayed happily asleep, would I have survived instead?

the phantom

11-17-2006, 09:05 PM

Hee hee... is anyone else chuckling? :D That last few minutes was crazy!

Er... I guess you're probably not chuckling, Esty. You're on the chopping block.

Nogrod

11-17-2006, 09:06 PM

I think Fea said that in the case of a deuce she will flip a coin - and that means... that she will flip a coin in her way?

the phantom

11-17-2006, 09:09 PM

What would be amusing is if we caused a tie and Fea flipped the coin but it landed on its side.

I suppose that would mean that SPM would die, right? :p

It was fun, Esty. I tried to save you. Die honorably, and rest in peace.

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 09:12 PM

So if I had stayed happily asleep, would I have survived instead?

Ironic, isn't it?

the phantom

11-17-2006, 10:04 PM

Hmm... Kath gets off, while Esty gets lynched.

I think it's obvious what the secret to survival is in this village.

Stay in bed and don't post.

Let this be a lesson to us all.

Diamond18

11-17-2006, 10:35 PM

Well, then I ought to survive to live a long and healthy life, as I likely won't be around at all next Day, due to spending the first half of it at work and the second half sleeping.

I have now given up waiting for Fea's narration.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-17-2006, 10:48 PM

Consider the delay a punishment for talking after bedtime. Bad children, Day is over.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-17-2006, 11:00 PM

The Dark Lady sipped red wine from a tall goblet and considered the actions of the village. She gazed past the constraints of time and space and there communed with the restless dead. She smiled cruelly, and asked them their thoughts. They laughed and continued to do so until she grew weary of them and returned to the senses of her own world, watching in quiet preoccupation.

"The first thing we do," the Scholar muttered, "is kill all the lawyers."

This seemed good to the village, and they gathered round him. And yet he escaped with his life, directing attention to another in their company: the sweet maiden, the nurturing maiden, now wretched with fear.

"Take my milk for gall, you murdering ministers," she cried as the village dragged her forth, "wherever in your sightless substances you wait on nature's mischief! Come, thick night, and pall thee in the dunnest smoke of burning regret!"

When death proved her words to be true, the village caught their breath and felt more sadness than ever yet before. They laid the innocent milkmaid near to the gravedigger, and spoke many praises of her.

And as they locked their doors and asked themselves to sleep through the nightmare of the waking world, some thought they heard a sigh on the wind.

Bêthberry

11-17-2006, 11:59 PM

Consider the delay a punishment for talking after bedtime. Bad children, Day is over.

But what do you expect? You set up a random game, threw out rules the children were expecting and then laughed at their confusion. Then, when an interloper inadvertently arrived, you accepted the unexpected appearance and regaled in the possibilities the appearance presented. And you expect things not to change, not to be other than what your original song considered?

You brought the perilous realm to WW. Why complain when others explore that realm?

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-18-2006, 08:27 PM

One woman of the village had lain awake, watching the fading wick and flickering flame, touching her fingertips to the melted wax and rolling it to soft putty between them. She had loved the gravedigger as a brother, and she had wept over his senseless death, and she had known... known it could not be long for her. When her companions, her deadly companions, had spoken against her, she had known.

She laid awake in the darkness, watching her light dwindle, feeling the draft through the open window she had been certain to close and lock. She knew. She had heard the call, seen the darkest sliver of night in motion. It was time, and she whispered pretty thoughts, sad thoughts, thoughts of days she could not know to herself with brief clarity of finality.

"To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow," she murmured, no fear in her eyes, "creeps in this petty place from day to night and night to day, to the last syllable of recorded time; and all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life is nothing. This too brief life is nothing; fleeting and bitter and cruel. We are all but walking shadows."

She looked to her ceiling and let her eyes close. A soft tendril breath of breeze unlit her candle, and as the dark came, so did her long goodnight.

When the village awoke, their sweet Roa was not amongst them.

the phantom

11-18-2006, 09:57 PM

I was about to leap in with posting and give my thoughts, but instead I wish to sit back and observe for a bit. I have what I believe to be a couple of important points to make, but if I post them, I'm afraid that if my thoughts are too compelling in certain areas some of you might just use me as the starting point and take off from there. Instead of that happening I should very much like to see how some of you would choose to start the day yourself and to see which path you would have us follow without anyone else running ahead first.

I will post a tally and a voting breakdown of yesterday in the next little while, but that's all for a bit.

the phantom

11-18-2006, 10:06 PM

Yesterday's voting-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)
Nog for Kath (1)
Di for Kath (2)
Di take back Kath (1)
Di for SPM (2)
Esty take back SPM (1)
Esty for Roa (3)
Nog take back Kath (0)
Nog for Esty (3)
tp for Roa (4)
SPM take back Roa (3)
SPM for Esty (4)

the phantom

11-18-2006, 11:04 PM

THE LIVING-

Anguirel
Diamond18
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

THE DEAD-

Boromir88 (innocent)- bravely faced the gallows on Day 1
mormegil (innocent)- bled by the WWs on Night 2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)- outed by shrewd villagers on Day 2
littlemanpoet (innocent)- lain carefully in grave on Night 3
Estelyn Telcontar (innocent)- kicked the bucket on Day 3
Roa_Aoife (innocent)- dreams invaded by a WW on Night 4

the phantom

11-18-2006, 11:11 PM

Bleh... I just thought of something.

Five of our remaining seven won't be posting any time soon because they're across the pond from me, and the person on this side (Di) has said that she will not be showing up today.

I can talk right now, but I will have to sleep and then I have a busy morning, so I won't be able to get into it till the latter third of the day.

Can I wait that long before giving my thoughts?

I'm deciding...

the phantom

11-18-2006, 11:36 PM

Uhg. I very very much wanted to see what would happen if I allowed others to post first. I wanted to keep my eyes open for some things. But timing is against me. I feel the need to speak now, for all of you likely won't give me anything to respond to until I'm in bed, and tomorrow I won't be able to post probably until the eight-hours-left mark.

So, grudgingly, here are my thoughts.

Roa died? Hmmm.....

This selection was not what I expected. Will it throw us off course, or help us zero in on the culprit?

The first thing that comes to mind is that Roa's death leaves us with a name- SPM.

Early in the day she spent a good deal of time on SPM, and he was at that point her primary suspect along with Esty.

Roa's list can be found here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=498167&postcount=259).

I'm wondering about SPM... the night before, lmp was killed, and when hearing the news I imagine most of you immediately thought of SPM due to the bickering that took place the day before. And then last night, Roa is killed, and her remaining suspect is none other than SPM.

Is SPM a WW making ridiculously bold choices and assuming that everyone will think no WW would ever do such a thing, or does someone really really want to set up SPM for a lynch?

Regarding the idea that SPM is being set up, Nogrod would be my primary suspect. Not only did he point suspicion towards SPM yesterday, but he also showed some late faith in Roa, and she had him as one of two on her "probably innocent" list, which makes him look good today.

But then again, perhaps killing Roa was an attempt to get us to do exactly as I have done, which is make this a two horse race between SPM and someone who comes to be suspected as setting SPM up. Maybe we shouldn't let that happen?

Then let's try something else. Let me ask you this- with Roa's death is there anyone who is likely to fade away somewhat? Di perhaps? She attracted votes on day 1 and fewer on day 2 and then none yesterday. And Di had very nice standing on Roa's list- right at the top as "probably innocent" (along with Nog).

And conveniently, Di has announced that she will be completely absent today. Is she a WW not only banking on us turning today into a two horse race, but also counting on us giving her the same pass that we gave to Kath yesterday?

And also, has anyone noticed that the victim every night has been from my side of the Atlantic? A coincidence, or strategy? It seems to me that the schedule benefits someone from America, for they can easily be present at the beginning and end of every day, and thus set the tone as well as use their vote well.

Is the WW a European seeking to be rid of its American opponents who find the schedule so accommodating, or is the WW Di, and she thinks that having villagers all from a different region than her will cause the lynchee to emerge from their ranks every time, for they will all be present and arguing at the same time, where as she will be safely gone during the heat of battle, and can use her convenient time-zone to set the tone early and decide the voting late.

What are your thoughts?

The Saucepan Man

11-19-2006, 04:59 AM

I haven't much time as I will be out (Christmas shopping :rolleyes: ) for most of toDay and will be unlikely to return for some 5 or 6 hours.

I have half a mind to suggest lynching the phantom simply for his insufferable comments during, and in the aftermath of, the chaos that surrounded yesterDay's lynching, particularly:

It was fun, Esty. I tried to save you. Die honorably, and rest in peace.As for the reasoning which led to Esty's lynching, I would observe that three of us (at least two of whom are innocent) believed that Esty's reappearance at such an hour looked Wolfish. I still think that it was a valid basis for for changing my vote. Moreover, had she not been lynched, then Roa would most probably have been and, going by this Wolf's modus operandi, Esty would have been killed in the night.

Which brings me to Roa as choice of victim. I really cannot fathom that one out. She was almost lynched yesterDay and I, for one, would have started toDay with her high on my list of suspects. I am sure that I am not the only one. So why kill a villager who was so likely to be "in the mix" when it came to toDay's voting?

Possibly to frame me and/or (on the basis of the phantom's reasoning) Noggie, but is that worth removing someone who was likely to assist in shielding the Wolf from being lynched?

I find it strange that the last two Night's kills have been villagers who have had their fair share of suspicion, while all of those who have generally featured on most people's "probably innocent" lists are still with us, namely:

the phantom
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Anguirel

I was sure that one of the above would be killed last Night.

The remaining villagers - Kath, Diamond and me - have all come under heavy suspicion at some time or other. If one of these three was a Wolf, they would be playing a rather risky game.

I am led to wonder whether the Wolf is one of those who has hitherto not come under much suspicion and so has felt relatively safe in killing off suspected villagers who leave trails to other suspected villagers.

That said, TP and Noggie came across as innocent to me during the confusion surrounding yesterDay's lynch (TP's self-serving farewell to Esty apart), while I have little basis at present for suspecting either Mith or Ang.

I really am rather stumped at the moment. Hopefully, a trip to the shops will inspire me and I will have had some better thoughts by the time I return.

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 05:16 AM

Roa died? Hmmm.....

This selection was not what I expected.I might think almost the contrary. I guess there is a bunch of reasons why the WW would like to get rid of Roa.

At least any sane WW would be somewhat afraid of Roa's analysis falling on her/him. So getting rid of Roa now would be understandable as it started to look like a few of the louder / more involved villagers were beginning to trust her (trust and trust... well not suspect her too much).

the survivor of the two will start tomorrow under the gun.So no one under the gun to begin with toDay and thence a good kill? Maybe. But actually I tend to think it the other way around. To my experience it seems to happen quite frequently that those running close lynching the previous Day do turn out relatively safe the next. Why is that I'm not so sure about, psychology-stuff...? In this game tp f.ex. was almost lynched on Day1 here and after that has gathered no votes at all.

Her death also creates a lot of confusion if we wish to look at all this being straightforward, bluffing, double-bluffing stuff. tp mentioned a few possibilities. But we should also note how her death makes all those who were happily lynching her or decided not to involve themselves a bit suspicious. Looking at how different people reacted to that last minute frenzy might also be revealing but can surely also mislead.

With a quick skim through last action yesterDay I would say that Spm looked quite earnest indeed, trying to go for the best of the village, tp was a bit detached although he actively tried to get Roa killed and Di was somewhat standing aside just looking over things. I mean this is something even experienced WWs forget many times: in the heat of last minute voting the innocents fear the result and try their best to the last but as the wolf has no panic her/himself, the wolf tends to be more relaxed and easy. And when it's a question of just last minutes people have not so much time to scheme everything and are more likely to actually reveal their real stances...

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 05:54 AM

I tend to agree with Spm that the wolf might be better caught from those with little or no suspicions than from those who are at gunpoint everyday. Unfortunately we have no such persons here. :confused:

Looking at the latest happenings that might give Spm and possibly Kath some relative safety. I'm not sure whether I would be totally happy with that, but as a working hypothesis might start with it. Even though it's pretty convenient to lay out a rule that makes the one presenting it to be safe... *coughSpmcough*

But really, there seems to be quite many people here with no actual suspicion around. A bit too many. Mith and Ang have been astonishingly at peace in here. That kind of worries me. tp has been here, there and everywhere but still quite safely without votes other than the first-Day ones. Di gathered votes on first two Days but seems to have been forgotten now?

I will probably start with these four latter ones as I come back a bit later.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 08:32 AM

I have a quick chance to post, but I won't be able to again for about five hours.
I have half a mind to suggest lynching the phantom simply for his insufferable comments during, and in the aftermath of, the chaos that surrounded yesterDay's lynching, particularly:
It was fun, Esty. I tried to save you. Die honorably, and rest in peace.
Say what you want, SPM, but I don't take that comment back. The fact is, it is so rare to have Esty in a village and she is such a delightful person that I felt the need to say goodbye upon her death. It was the first time she has ever died, for she lived to be victorious in her first village (which was my village if you recall, WW XII).

And not only that, but at the end I was quite sure that she was innocent, and so I wished her a good death.
As for the reasoning which led to Esty's lynching, I would observe that three of us (at least two of whom are innocent) believed that Esty's reappearance at such an hour looked Wolfish.
You seriously need to recondsider what looks Wolfish. I will repost what I said towards the end of yesterday-
So how come you are here if you're not wholly disturberd about your fate and why to be disturbed about a game if you were not indeed the wolf?
I don't agree with your reasoning. Why shouldn't an innocent want to save his own life?

The ONLY way for an innocent to guarantee victory for the village is to be the last person standing himself, for an ordo knows ONLY his OWN identity for sure.

Should an ordo be willing to sacrifice his own life? If there is a Seer or other gifted to protect, then yes, but there are none such individuals here. I personally have no plans of letting myself die at any point, and therefore I refuse to condemn Esty for it.
++Roa
The fact is, as "Wolfish" as you thought Esty's behavior was, to me she started looking more innocent with every post and by the time it was all decided and I made my "die honorably" comment I was more certain of her innocence than anyone else.

There! I just thought I had to say that because your view on what is Wolfish so often gets me angry. In game after game you are always on and on about how someone putting up a fight and refusing to be lynched is Wolfish, and that notion is so incredibly wrong. I'll never understand that logic.

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 09:42 AM

Silent as the grave, my comrades. Hmmm.

So passed Esty, ungratefully hanged, and Roa, guilty of nothing but exuberance.

I am tempted to ponder the nature of this Lady who reigns over us, to tangle with the rumours, the myths and the legends.

Some say that, maddened by the contempt with which she was spurned by a mischievous spirit of ethereal and arrogant substance, she determined to yoke all others into slavery or subsume them in death, while displaying that she knew more literature than they did.

Others say that she is the true Queen of this World, and schemes to elect a spouse or sibling fit to reign beside her.

But there is a third legend, which speaks of a woman ignorant of the village laws but well-versed in poetry and bardic knowledge from far lands, who will challenge the basis of the Dark Lady's rule, who will refuse to bend the knee to her power, and who will set herself up in triumph over her, delivering poor mortals.

The name of the Dark Lady of old was ++FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL.

The name of the lady from the strange country is Bethberry. I solemnly invoke her mysterious power!

(Come on, let's lynch Fea and declare Bethberry our new Empress. I want to see the results.)

(And yes, I will consider a serious approach, pending future events.)

Kath

11-19-2006, 10:34 AM

My no show yesterDay is explained on the other thread, but I repeat my apologies here.

I think that many of the people who said my silence would be a fantastic tactic for a wolf are absolutely right. You guys suspected me, set me up for lynching and then saved me from it within 24 hours, without me saying a word. It is possible that Di is trying the same trick toDay, but I want to go over her posts before I agree or disagree with that.

Right now I'm just popping in to show my face. I will be back later and play catch up properly.

One quick thought though. Those who are dying at Night ... morm, lmp and Roa. Is there anything that links them? Were they all playing slightly differently to usual? Were they the least or most confrontational. I'm just trying to figure out if there has been a pattern to the kills.

Anyway, give me 3/4 hours and I'll return, hopefully with something useful.

Oh, and one more thing, if we lynch the second werewolf toDay or tomorrow, will we know that we have done so?

The Saucepan Man

11-19-2006, 10:52 AM

I'm back, frazzled from a day's shopping and still utterly clueless. :rolleyes:

In game after game you are always on and on about how someone putting up a fight and refusing to be lynched is Wolfish, and that notion is so incredibly wrong. I'll never understand that logic.Yes, I have read your reasoning on Esty's reappearance (although not before changing my vote) and understand what you are saying. It does not change my view. None of the innocents are Gifteds. As matters stand, if an innocent is lynched, the village can still win. If the Wolf dies, he/she loses. I therefore think that a Wolf is more likely to put up more of a fight.

We differ on this. Let's just leave it at that.

I am tempted to vote for Anguirel for his continued Nero-istic behaviour. While your jocular approach is delightful as always, my dear fellow, it would be helpful if you would share a few of your more sensible thoughts.

Oh, and one more thing, if we lynch the second werewolf toDay or tomorrow, will we know that we have done so?Yes, I believe so. We were told of Esty's innocence.

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 11:28 AM

Blimey .. that is a surprise ......... to kill someone that no one could possible ever discount as a wolf without a seer's confirmation is either brave, foolish or eccentric ..... mind you ... sorry I am so late .. drank more wine with lunch than compatible with driving any sooner ... and I really thought there was a good chance I would be the kill .....

The Saucepan Man

11-19-2006, 12:03 PM

OK, I'm not going to be able to be around later, so I must vote now. And I still feel pretty clueless. :(

However, a few things have coalesced in my mind re-reading the chaotic events at the end of yesterDay.

With a quick skim through last action yesterDay I would say that Spm looked quite earnest indeed, trying to go for the best of the village, tp was a bit detached although he actively tried to get Roa killed and Di was somewhat standing aside just looking over things.That struck a chord with me, and I do feel that Nogrod's participation was genuine and earnest. While Diamond's presence, having spent her votes, is somewhat disconcerting as I look back, the phantom's detachment is even more so. Personally, I was rather flummoxed by the whole affair (and having consumed the best part of a bottle of wine didn't help), yet the phantom remained calm and calculating and chose not to reveal much in the way his thoughts were going until it was all but too late. He was, of course, in no danger himself.

Also, as Nogrod noted, he was actively trying to kill Roa. And who should die that Night? Why, Roa, of course. Which points towards the phantom. But who would think the phantom crazy enough to kill the person he was activley trying to get lynched the Day before?

to kill someone that no one could possible ever discount as a wolf without a seer's confirmation is either brave, foolish or eccentric ...That struck a chord too. The two most recent kill choices were strange ones. Perhaps this Wolf is one who is trying to give himself more of a challenge by killing off the more suspected villagers and leaving the less suspected ones. The phantom himself stated early on that, given the random nature of this game, he would feel little pride in winning it as a Wolf. Perhaps, therefore, having been selected as a Wolf, he is trying to make it more of a challenge for himself.

That and my paranoia finally won out ... :rolleyes:

++ the phantom

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 12:23 PM

And scarily quiet ...

Mith and Ang have been astonishingly at peace in here.
Noggin do you mean with each other or in our own skins?

Well I don't trust any of you absolutely but I needed a much smaller range of options to pick Ang out last time .... I am at peace for there is little I can do but vote as best I can .. no "executive stress" of decision making that go with being a wolf or a gifted .... I do find it a little ironic that haiving been told with justification that I take this game too seriously I now am looking suspicious for being too relaxed .... .

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 12:32 PM

There is that other outside possibility that Morm was a wolf and Fea is messing with our heads by picking off unlikely folk at night..

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 12:36 PM

Mith and Ang have been astonishingly at peace in here.
Noggin do you mean with each other or in our own skins?I meant that in peace and quiet from all the suspicions and open debate. So somehow shadowy. You do not make too many open points or neither are pointed to by others. That I find a bit worrysome right now.

I'm look at Ang's posting right now and will try to get it finished (there sure is quantity in Day1!).

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 12:54 PM

Well in my case I know it simply is that I am not a wolf. Also it has been very quiet when I have been able to be online.... people I might have expected to be around haven't *gives Nogrod a pointed look*

I think it was you who said something about my Bethberry vote being safe looking back ... well hindsight is great isn't it? But anyone who has played a few games of werewolf knows how people can get lynched for very little on day one.

Voting for Bethberry would not have been be a good choice for a wolf because:

a, far too attention seeking and conspicuous.

b, there was a possibility that others might have joined me "in a let's see what happens" approach..... now as has been pointed out, wolfs as lone operators are nearer their goal if anyone else gets lynched. The risk of "wasting" a kill on Bethberry would to my mind rile the wolves more than innocents. A couple of people were anti my punt I must look back and see who they were.

Paranoia does seem to be taking root... heigho...

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 01:32 PM

Anguirel's posting, a synopsis in shorthand.

DAY1
#6 Refuting tp’s pessimistic post. Discussion on wolf-tactics. Joke on Mith. Suggesting a blind lynch. Ready to lynch Roa with Boro. Being optimistic. All in light way.

#13 Refutes Spm’s theory of competing wolves. Suggests looking at any peronal feuds between the players as hints to Fea’s picks.

#16 Following Eomer’s point on game’s end suggests that “we're probably going to be stuck as the Dark Lady's pawns for the rest of eternity”. Joke on Esty.

#22 Jokes Kath for the grudge-list saying he wouldn’t live too long with that. Then giving tp and Boro & Kath as his possible grudges...

#26 Giving his view of the WW-credentials of everyone in the village. As he himself concludes: pretty scant.

#33 After tp made him and Esty to top his guesses for Fea picks, he calls tp having an inflexible dogma and thence innocentish. Saying the picks are not totally handmade and there is randomity too. So we should not go for Esty either just like that.

#43 Taking Fea’s point of view. Wolves will be a team, tp will be an extra fenris wolf, there might be Diamantine surprises.

#48 Votes tp on the basis of Di’s scenario that tp will not doe in this game. Joking challenge to tp.

#59 Reports on Fea’s clarification: no one can be ruled out as one of the wolves is random. Sticking to his vote.

#62 Notes that quite a many would be “obvious” to be picked by Fea (mainly tp, Eomer, lmp and himself). Suggests we stick to seeing the choice as a random. Sticking to his vote to give tp a chance to join the fenris-clan.

#64 The literature student’s response.

#71 Jokes on tp’s joking defence of himself. Jokingly defends himself over Mith’s joke on him. Not suspecting Boromir. If seriously hunting a wolf then would go on Nogrod as he’s been too quiet and his Spm suspicion was specious.

#75 Going back to old games to answer tp’s comments.

#77 Asking about the deadline.

DAY2
#165 Saying his determined to catch a wolf and drops his suspicion on tp (jokes on how hard it is). Thinking Morm was innocent as well as have thought Boro innocent also.

#167 Strongly refuting tp’s points about there being hints to us in Fea’s narrations.

#168 Noting the term “newest” slaves in the narration, Wondering if that could be a valid thing to hint.

#173 Laments if the meaning of existence (eg. Fea’s hints) are in a blog he can’t get himself to see. Admits that tp has answered plausibly.

#207 Gives his thoughts on other players. Ending with: “I am most likely to vote for Kath [not engaging in duels, and killing morm might be a double-bluff combined with pragmatism], Nogrod [still a bit unnerved by Nogrod and think he could be lying low] or Elempi [If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...], with the phantom hanging in as the "Anguirel possessed by rage and envy" candidate.”

#217No; I will not cast away my physic but on those which are sick.

#219 Reveals his “Kath honeytrap” and declares Eomer had fallen into it. Votes Eomer.

#233 Pleads us not to lynch Di and jokes on Eomer.

DAY3
#275 Admitting that his honeytrap was no ploy, but revealing it was to get evidence and to get people to vote for Eomer. Queries tp why he is not so sure of Nogrods innocence anymore? Jokes on tp. Says lmp’s death would fit the pattern of killing the “relatively quiet and trailless”.

#288 Wonders about tp’s and Spm’s “superfluous reasoning” over lmp’s death. Thinks Spm might act like he does if innocent. As we have a great advantage in numbers and will not win anyhow even if we catch a wolf he will be “relax and revert to a bit of grudge-fulfillment. I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory”. Still says that Di is not guilty, and Kath seems innocent too.

#293 Argues with Spm about Fea’s endgame rules and thence promises to fiddle all he likes.

#294 Agrees with Spm about Kath’s vote.

#297 Votes Spm on the basis of his interpretation of the endgame rules.

#307 Accepting Spm’s points and giving out an air of trust. Still going to stick with his (self-admittedly) groundless vote to watch more “nail-biting”.

#314 Gives his Day3 summary on everyone. Suspects Roa the most but will stick his vote on Spm, tp he might also lynch.

#315 His conscience intervened: retracted Spm and voted for Roa.

#316 post-edit about capitals.

DAY4
#386 Calls us to follow his example and vote for Fea.

A few thoughts to follow...

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 01:35 PM

In my case, I'm ashamed to say, I've been absorbed in the literary analysis of the latest 007 flick...marvellous...

I think my Fea vote is quite Bondian and stylish so I shall let it rest, but I do heartily exhort that Kath not be jumped on automatically...despite the phantom's eloquent point about her and Esty's contrasting styles and fates, which does resonate a lot.

If I survive to the next dawn, you'll be back to a full-blooded, genuine Ang contribution, complete with added hairs and claws, grrrr, grrrr, ho ho ho. I shall talk you all into a ferment...

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 01:41 PM

Oh, and I'm getting suspicious of the phantom and less so of Nogrod. Why? To summarise briefly, Nogrod seems to be bringing up more complications, subtleties and options, whereas the phantom seems to glance about so blasted clearly. I don't much like it.

Vote Fea.

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 01:51 PM

The thing I find somewhat uncomforting is that he seems to have no real suspicions. I know it's not easy to come up with anything "substantial" in this kind of game but still he seems to play very safely indeed. I mean he is not going openly towards anyone (Roa excluded) and each time he airs a suspicion he kind of backs it with reservations or talking nicely. Look at his interactions with tp and Spm, at lesser level with myself too. Accusations, suspicions, arguments and always coming back with positive evaluations. He also seems pretty active in backing the innocence of Di and lately also Kath. Trying to assure enough friends he is then? Making too much friends to look innocent? A wolf's main concern during the Days is self-preservation, an innocent's to pick the wolves. On these standards Ang seems to be more up to the first than the second option.

I'm surely having some suspicions on Ang now.

I'll be back in something like two hours (for not a too long period of time, sadly).

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 01:51 PM

TP' knowingness (is that even a word) still bothers me ... need ot stop talking on IM and read again .. .

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 01:57 PM

There's daggers in men's smiles,
The near in blood, the nearer bloody.

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 02:13 PM

I would rather look at the Phantom, the Pan man and SIamond... you two are still less suspicious to me .. and if youare both innocent it would be better not for you to tear each other apart ...

Apart from anything else ..I think a wolvish Anguirel might have been keener to dispose of me ..... ;) And I don't think we can assume that the other wolf would have been the wolf's top priority that was Sauce's theory and I shall have another look ..... It still worries me that he was so keen to know the wolves relation to each other .. and if I recall correctly he never feels he has won if he is not alive and so a wolvish sauce would take scant pleasure from the other wolf's victory if he did not survive....

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 03:30 PM

the phantom 71
The Saucepan Man 45
Estelyn Telcontar 44 Nogrod 38
Anguirel 35
Mithalwen 33
Diamond18 31
Roa_Aoife 24
Feanor of the Peredhil 20
littlemanpoet 18
Kath 12
Eomer of the Rohirrim 12
Boromir88 7
mormegil 7
Bêthberry 4

Well at least Ang has fiddled in Rome .. not left the city and watched from a great distance ..oh Kath was Children in Need really that enthralling .. you have posted less than those who have been dead for days ... makes it hard ....

the phantom

11-19-2006, 03:37 PM

++FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL
Heh heh heh... :p Fea is thrilled, I'm sure.
Those who are dying at Night ... morm, lmp and Roa. Is there anything that links them?
The only thing that I can think of is what I said earlier- they're all from my side of the Atlantic. I don't think anyone else commented on that strategy though, so I guess that means it's off the wall.

The only other common thing that I see is that the choices from the last two nights (lmp and Roa) were unusual choices. Both were in line to be lynched, it seems to me. Personally, I would've killed Nogrod last night.
The two most recent kill choices were strange ones. Perhaps this Wolf is one who is trying to give himself more of a challenge by killing off the more suspected villagers and leaving the less suspected ones. The phantom himself stated early on that, given the random nature of this game, he would feel little pride in winning it as a Wolf. Perhaps, therefore, having been selected as a Wolf, he is trying to make it more of a challenge for himself.
Ha ha! I love your line of thought.

You're wrong, but it's amusing.

Honestly, do you think I'd kill lmp and Roa?

You've seen me as a WW in two villages, SPM. When have I ever killed a juicy lynch target? No, no, no... I kill the Seer, and then I kill more peripheral villagers- ones who are a bit quieter, ones who aren't associated with me, and most importantly ones who aren't in line to be lynched.

I always make a logical kill. If everyone shows up in the morning asking "Why them?" then you can bet I didn't do it. It's a fact.

You will notice that in the villages where I was a WW I never once questioned the kills or insisted that I would've done something different.
That and my paranoia finally won out ...

++ the phantom
Paranoia indeed.

So, I guess this vote for me means that you never understood what I was talking about on day one- about why you should trust me?

Oh well. I'll let it go for now. But if I continue to attract votes I suppose I will then feel obligated to explain what I was driving at on Day 1.
There is that other outside possibility that Morm was a wolf and Fea is messing with our heads by picking off unlikely folk at night.
That thought has occured to me several times, but seeing as we have not been dismissed by our master I don't think there's anything to do besides continue lynching.
TP' knowingness (is that even a word) still bothers me ...
What "knowingness"? I don't know much at all. If I did then the other WW would be dead by now.

About Nogrod's suspicions of Ang- he speaks truth, in the sense that his points are very valid and his theory is believable. Nogrod also was not surprised by the choice of Roa. He said there were a "bunch of reasons" to kill her. So not only was Nogrod not thrown off by Roa's death, but he seems to have easily formulated believable and logical suspicions to go along with it.

Is it just me, or does this remind anyone of when they were a WW? When I was a WW I always had theories that were pretty darn sound in their logic, for I didn't want to call attention to myself by putting forth bad theories. I crafted them carefully, either for myself or for one of my brother/sister WWs to present the following day. Also, when I was a WW, the kills never surprised me (duh), and I was always able to easily give "bunches of reasons" as to why the person was killed.

I'm completely aware that this is probably just a false alarm and that poor Nog hasn't done anything wrong, but I just have to speak my mind. Nog is making me nervous.

Oh, and nice list, Mith. I think I now know why SPM wants to kill me. He wants to take the lead in posting count. :p

I won't let it happen Sauce!!

the phantom

11-19-2006, 03:38 PM

Not ever!!

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 03:46 PM

I still think that Morm was Eomer's choice while of course the 2 more recent ones are Wolf 2's (or Fea's).

Your knowingness refers to all that stuff on day one ... the Boro understands me stuff.... and declaring Noggin innocent when I voted for him briefly...

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 03:57 PM

I have about 10 minutes left ....

I think there is just one vote so far

SpM for TP.

Diamond won't be here and it doesn't look like Kath will be either.

Ang still seems less suspicious to me so I won't vote for him.

The rest of you aaaaaaaargh ...

the phantom

11-19-2006, 04:01 PM

Your knowingness refers to all that stuff on day one ... the Boro understands me stuff.... and declaring Noggin innocent when I voted for him briefly...
Ah.

Regarding Nog, I simply thought that he looked much more innocent than the others at the time. My feeling was strong enough at the time that I felt comfortable leading people away from him.

As far as Boro- well I just trusted him and he trusted me. We've been WWs together and seen each other in a couple other games too, and so every once and a while we can get a pretty good read on each other right off the bat.

Now, naturally he could've fooled me this game and completely faked me out, however I felt that I had a strong enough read on him to go out on a limb and completely trust him, and I figured that if I was wrong then he just did a good job fooling me and deserved to beat me.

That's sort of how I've been treating Ang this game. The last two times he was a WW he set off my alarm on Day 1. I didn't get that feeling from him this game, so I declared him innocent and figured that if I was wrong then he'd make me pay for my mistake and that would be that.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 04:07 PM

Anyway, give me 3/4 hours and I'll return, hopefully with something useful.
That was what- about six hours ago?

Are you there, Kath, or has Beth taken your place?

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 04:07 PM

this is impossible...

I could vote Di or Kath for absenteeism .... either could easily be the wolf
Noggin seems slightly disengaged but he has the other game
I sway on the tide between thinking Sauce or you guilty ...
Probably means Ang is duping me once more ....

Time to flip coins.....

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 04:17 PM

Still waiting for the final results from Jenny's game... :smokin:

tp, are you actually saying that coming up with those reasons for killing Roa were something like a feat, now were you? You? :)

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 04:18 PM

Coins not obliging..

the phantom

11-19-2006, 04:22 PM

tp, are you actually saying that coming up with those reasons for killing Roa were something like a feat, now were you? You?
You're wanting to know if I complimented you?

Well, I said that your behavior reminds me of when I was a WW, so yes- that is definitely a compliment. Of the highest order. ;)
Coins not obliging..
Yes, those cursed little things just never listen to what they're told, do they? You nearly always have to grab them with your hands and physically throw them in order to get them to flip. It's so annoying.

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 04:24 PM

I did but they did not distiguish arrgh

Mithalwen

11-19-2006, 04:47 PM

++Kath

Kath

11-19-2006, 04:48 PM

Yes, I believe so. We were told of Esty's innocence.
Aye but Fea said that we wouldn't find out who had won until it was down to 2 players, and if she's told us that the final wolf has died in the narration, how would that work?

So, who have we got left:
Anguirel
Diamond18
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Now, I'm going to remove my name because I'm sure of my own innocence (though not too sure since Fea is around :rolleyes: ). I'm also going to remove Mith because if she is a wolf she is playing the best game I have ever seen from her. I've played with her Gifted, I know the panicked posts, the extreme defensiveness, I've seen none of it. I will also remove the phantom and Sauce because I just cannot form valid opinions on them until they've died.

Which leaves me with:
Ang
Di
Nogrod

Ang:
Starts off very blasé, going along with Boro and not minding who is lynched, or how. Does argue against phantom and his assertion that we shouldn't talk strategy, and then offers one of his own which indeed the wolves could have picked up on and made sure not to do. Possibly then a way to warn a fellow wolf (I'm assuming here that the wolves, while not a team, were not working at cross-purposes) but I'm not sure he'd be so obvious. Perhaps though, as he then argues with Sauce saying he believes the wolves to be on the same side. Began the 'grudge' idea, and mentioned that he had them against phantom, Boro and me. Of the three only Boro has died so if Ang is a wolf he's playing well with keeping his kills safe. Tries to think who could be a wolf, but comes up with no concrete answers. However, his most likely suspect was actually himself. A possible Fea-esque move here? Declare yourself as a wolf and see what happens? Disagrees with the phantom but thinks him innocent, and defends Esty somewhat.

Di:
Arrives with a bang, claiming grudges against Eomer and Boro, but thinking the phantom is the most likely wolf based on the fact that Fea is modding. Then defends Esty and repeats her grudge against Boro. Comes up with the 'Diamond is innocent' rule which was later leapt on as a sign of wolvishness because she did it before she was even suspected, and I think this is a fair point. It's one thing to defend yourself when you have 3 votes and possibly more coming, but she had nothing. And then she makes a very tongue in cheek comment about Fea not daring to break that rule, at the same time mentioning her tendency not to follow them. Odd that.

Taking too long this way. Ok, I've read through the rest but I won't bore you with it, you know it. Basic conclusions. Ang is having a ball, playing around with the rules and the silliness and the freedom this game brings. Di too actually. But Ang has stuck the odd helpful, serious and contemplative comment in on and off, which has been extremely rare from Di. Funny thing about Di is that, since I agree with Sauce that innocents are more expendable in this game than others and so are less likely to fight for life than a wolf, she does defend herself an awful lot. The innocence rule, trying to get Boro (I think) to take her stats down, mentioning her entertainment value.

With that in mind, and my need for an earlier night:

++ANGUIREL

Di may be taking me for a fool, but it's Ang I feel the danger comes from. He switched very suddenly from joking to serious, whereas Di has been consistent throughout.

Um, so I didn't do Nogrod. It was exhausting enough doing these two with the 11 pages we have so far. :rolleyes: If both of us are alive tomorrow and the final wolf hasn't been found I'll look at him. From the skim reading I was doing through his posts I didn't find anything greatly suspicious. In general, if he's coming up with a thousand different solutions every post he tends to be innocent. But then, he knows this too.

Also, on the way through I noticed this from phantom:
And while we're on Kath- what's with her vote? She was in danger when she voted and rather than vote for one of the other leaders she threw away her vote on Esty.
Truthfully I wasn't concentrating, I probably hadn't even noticed the vote tally. But even if I had, what did it matter? Like I said I subscribe to Sauce's view that innocents are expendable. Sure, it's better to lynch a wolf, but at least you'd be taking down someone who isn't as helpful as, say, Ang when innocent and seeking wolves.

I won't be back toDay.

Kath

11-19-2006, 04:51 PM

Uh, I cross-posted with everyone since the last page. And phantom, ok I was a little longer than 4 hours ... so sue me. Or should I say lynch me. :rolleyes:

the phantom

11-19-2006, 04:54 PM

The voting-

SPM for tp
Mith for Kath
Kath for Ang

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 05:06 PM

I still tend to regard Spm as an innocent. I know he can be shrewd but there's still an air of frankness around him. Especially after yesterDays last moments.

Mith I haven't have time to go with any detail, but she seems pretty cool by the look of it (I read her posts while looking for Ang), so at least for now I will not suspect her very much.

Di looks also a bit shady right now. She was strongly suspected on the first two Days for being overly-defencive, maybe for a reason, maybe not (I'm not
wholly convinced about the accusations). But the trouble with her I feel is her vagueness.

After hearing that Kath's non-appearance yesterDay was due to RL (which we must always trust at the face value - otherwise there are no games like this) and seeing her posting toDay I'm inclined to ease my suspicions on her, at least somewhat. Still I'm not very confident about her as I've seen her prevail as a sneaky and shady, if reasonable wolf already earlier.

That leaves me Ang and tp.

I need to think about it. I have to wake up early and thence can't hang around too long (1AM right now). This calls for a cigarette. *badhabit*

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 05:12 PM

You missed Ang for Fea, phantom...

Kath accused me of switching from joking to serious. She's slightly mistaken; I switched from serious to joking. Different matter entirely! The question is, dear damosel, do you trust me to wing my way back to seriousness again, as I've said I would?

I must say Kath looks rather as if she's jumping on and exploiting Nogrod's stated suspicions of me, in a similar way as Eomer, the first wolf, jumped on my stated suspicions of Kath. However, as I'm on the receiving end of her vote my mind can't exactly remain unclouded.

the phantom and Kath, then, are my main suspicions, but I won't vote for the phantom as it would encourage a Sauce-tp race, and I won't vote for Kath as that would be naught but squalid self-defence.

Lynch me if you like; in a funny way it would prove the effectiveness of my schemes. I will die, if I am to die, railing against the Dark Lady, for though in sooth I do love her I exhort that we raise up the standard of her destruction!

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 05:16 PM

Oh, and I've discovered the true identity of the Dark Lady. This Fea/Laura/Eva Green stuff is a mask...she's actually called Vesper Lynd.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 05:20 PM

All right. Time for a new List of Doom.

INNOCENT
the phantom

PROBABLY INNOCENT
SPM
Mith

HERE BE WOLVES (wolf, actually)
Ang
Di
Kath
Nogrod

So there it is. I won't be voting for SPM or Mith except to save my life. The only choices I am allowing myself are the last four. But which should I choose???

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 05:24 PM

Kath accused me of switching from joking to serious. She's slightly mistaken; I switched from serious to joking. Different matter entirely! The question is, dear damosel, do you trust me to wing my way back to seriousness again, as I've said I would?

I must say Kath looks rather as if she's jumping on and exploiting Nogrod's stated suspicions of me, in a similar way as Eomer, the first wolf, jumped on my stated suspicions of Kath.This is a case in point indeed. As I look at it again I can see what you mean. But I think the most important question is not whether you may wing back to being serious again but whether Kath made a bogus suspicion... Your point about Eomer looks reasonable.

tp is just over my resources toDay but I will come back to him toMorrow if I'm still around. Ang I might vote, but I think I will have to revaluate Kath again before it.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 05:25 PM

The way Ang is acting... it looks so familiar... I know I've seen him like this before.

I just can't recall in which village it was. Help me out, Ang. Where am I remembering this routine from? You've been in too many games.

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 05:30 PM

It's hard to judge oneself, but perhaps you should have a look at WWX...the real link being that I enjoyed myself tremendously both there and here, though here I'm having a good deal more success...

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 05:34 PM

Giving reasons for one's vote from out of thin air is something also an innocent might do when the sleep is pressing on but having an overall tactics of not making anyone to feel bad about you is definitively more wolvish.

++ Anguirel

Anguirel

11-19-2006, 05:35 PM

I've found a picture...

http://www.filmweb.no/bilder/multimedia/archive/00099/Eva_Green_som_Vesper_99696c.jpg

...of the Lady Vesperfea in all her darkling glory.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 05:47 PM

The voting-

Ang for Fea (1)
SPM for tp (1)
Mith for Kath (1)
Kath for Ang (1)
Nog for Ang (2)
It's hard to judge oneself, but perhaps you should have a look at WWX
I did. I saw a bit of what I was looking for there where you were a Ranger, but also in WW I where you were a wolf. :rolleyes:

But really, I'm sort of buying into your carefree attitude. I remember you saying something earlier about how Fea will just kill us all anyway, and your behavior strikes me as someone who has no fear.

Hmm.... this is tough....

All right. I've decided that I don't want to vote for you today, anyway. If you're a WW you're doing well and you're being entertaining, and so I wouldn't mind letting you stick around till tomorrow to see what you would do once you become more serious.

So that leaves me with
Di
Kath
Nogrod

(it seems the absent tactic is a good one, Kath survived yesterday and Di isn't getting attention today)

Oh, and nice pic, Ang. She's not bad, but that obviously isn't Fea. L's prettier.

Nogrod

11-19-2006, 05:48 PM

You're wanting to know if I complimented you?Oh just remebered this one.

No, I was not asking for a compliment. I was quite frankly astonished at first that you would think coming up with reasons to kill Roa during the night such a hard task. But surely if you'd be someone having evil intentions, then I could see the rationale behind your acted amazement - or should we say downright ready-chewed and fitting propositions of remembrance. :)

the phantom

11-19-2006, 06:00 PM

The following won't be here the rest of the Day (as far as I know)-

Di
Kath
Mith
SPM

Which leaves-
Ang
Nog
tp

And if I'm not mistaken, Nog is going to bed now. So really, so far as I am aware, it's just you and I, Ang.

What should I do to save you? A vote for Nog or Di wouldn't do you any good unless you vote too, but even that would only cause a tie. Only a vote for Kath would guarantee your safety (if you vote for her too).

Should I go ahead and do it?

the phantom

11-19-2006, 06:05 PM

Gah! An errand has come up that will not wait. I must leave immediately. I should be able to make it back in the last hour, but just in case...

++Kath

As it stands I'd much rather vote for Nog but that would be pointless at this stage.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-19-2006, 06:18 PM

Oh, and nice pic, Ang. She's not bad, but that obviously isn't Fea. L's prettier.
You know that won't help you win, right?

Diamond18

11-19-2006, 06:24 PM

Yo.

I just woke up. Well, not "just" as I managed to read through the thread. But, I'm here.

I don't even know if I should vote... I'm most inclined to vote for tp just out of paranoia because he's the most active player and seems to have the game comfortably under control at the moment. If he is the wolf it would be most satisfying to beat him, but I'm not really sure I think he's a wolf. But no one else is giving me anything at the moment. I do my best at werewolf when I've got a suspect I'm pursuing for whatever reason, be it a gut feeling or some hint I noticed in their posting. Or a grudge. :p At the moment I have none of those things. Maybe I should have stayed in bed....

Diamond18

11-19-2006, 06:28 PM

Oh, what the heck.

++the phantom

I just can't resist the three way tie.

Not that I really think it's going to last.

Ang for Fea (1)
SPM for tp (1)
Mith for Kath (1)
Kath for Ang (1)
Nog for Ang (2)
tp for Kath (2)
Di for tp (2)

I stole your list and voted for you. I'm so bad.

The Saucepan Man

11-19-2006, 07:17 PM

Honestly, do you think I'd kill lmp and Roa?No, I don’t. Indeed, I am still as sure as I can be that you are innocent. The paranoia is still there, but I harnessed it for the purposes of my earlier vote. And the other reasoning was the best that I could come up with at the time. I am surprised that you didn’t lay into it more than you did.

My apologies, old bean, but I was using you as bait for one of those “honey trap” thingummyjigs. Unfortunately, it appears that my target was not tempted to bite.

The target in question being the honey-tongued honey-trapper himself, Anguirel. And I rather think that he spotted my clumsily sprung trap. After all, his reason for not voting for the phantom was so as not to start a TP-SpM race. Which was hardly likely when I had not attracted any votes at the time and a fair few others had. Rather weak reasoning for not switching from a (pointless) vote for the Dark Lady, to one whom he claims to suspect.

You see, when I reviewed the thread earlier, I noticed a few things about our Ang (a few of which have been picked up by other since).

He was dismissive of the phantom’s attempts to insist that strategy was of no avail to us, which might suggest that he had fallen into the phantom’s little trap himself.

He was the most interested of all the villagers in my suggestion that the Wolves were in competition. The only other villager to express any interest (other than as a basis for suspecting me) was Eomer.

As Kath has pointed out, he has indulged in the classic Wolfish ploy of putting forward theories which self-confessedly implicate himself (something, it should be noted, that Eomer did). Not just when setting out his views of whom Fea would be likely to pick as a Wolf (his top picks, as I recall, being himself and Eomer), but also on the whole “grudge” issue. It was he who first raised the possibility that the Wolves might have been chosen on the basis of grudges. And when Kath suggested that we confess our grudges, he pointedly noted that he would not come out well from such a list before agreeing that it might be worth a shot. He also spent a fair amount of time on the first Day itemising the various grudges that he has against the phantom.

Also, as Nogrod has pointed out, this light-hearted approach of his has (if he is a Wolf) served him well as it has diverted suspicion away from him (until toDay, he had hardly been suspected, nor had he attracted any votes). He has also presented himself as an engaging chap, without whom the game would be worse off. Who would wish to vote off such an entertaining asset to our proceedings? And yet, he has also shown himself capable of serious thought and active participation at times. This switching between the light-hearted and the serious has had me concerned for some time. For a while, I was merely frustrated at his fiddling while our village (metaphorically) burnt. But now, I am wondering whether there might be something more sinister to it.

Many of his light-hearted contributions, I might add, have been employed in efforts to delight the Dark Lady, responding as he has to her literary interventions in kind. Might these be attempts to curry favour with his mistress?

And, finally, I noticed that he has done various things which might be seen as testing the water for possible lynch candidates. His vote for the phantom on Day 1 was followed by a number of votes which very nearly saw the phantom felled on the very first Day. He started off the series of events which led to Eomer’s demise (possibly in order to eliminate a rival that he had spotted, possibly simply to rid himself of one who he perceived as a dangerous innocent). On Day 3, he tested to see whether there was any appetite to lynch me, and when there appeared to be little, he switched to Roa instead. Roa was very nearly lynched but, when she was not, she was murdered in the Night instead.

But most of all, he has seemed continually to be testing the water to see whether there might be any prospect of lynching the phantom. Several times during the course of the game, he has indicated that he might consider voting for the phantom (at times jokingly, but this jocular approach might well merely be serving as cover). You see, I think that a Wolfish Anguirel wants to rid himself of his self-confessed nemesis, the phantom, and yet would not stoop so low as to kill him at Night. He wants to see this particular enemy laid low in a fair fight - by getting him lynched. That, in my experience, would be Anguirel all-over.

That’s why I chose the phantom as the bait for my trap. It may seem strange to vote for him when he did not fall into the trap but, as I said, I believe that he managed spot it and skilfully steered clear.

His avoidance of the trap notwithstanding, I still believe him to be our last Wolf.

-- the phantom
++ Anguirel

Note that I typed most of this out before I saw Diamond’s vote for the phantom. It is possible that she is the Wolf who has fallen for the bait, but I am more convinced of Ang’s guilt for now. If I am wrong, she may well bear reconsideration.

The Saucepan Man

11-19-2006, 07:22 PM

Updated voting:

Ang for Fea (1)
SPM for tp (1)
Mith for Kath (1)
Kath for Ang (1)
Nog for Ang (2)
tp for Kath (2)
Di for tp (2)
SpM take back tp (1)
SpM for Ang (3)

Diamond18

11-19-2006, 08:06 PM

Trap schmap. It just delights me to do things that are terribly wolfish and illogical.

Such as....

- - tp

++Ang

Since there seems little hope of killing tp now.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 08:37 PM

I'm back.

I'm not sure what to think here. I thought for sure that Ang would respond to those last three posts I made before I left. I even thought it likely that he would tack on his vote to Kath, but he didn't. Is he gone, or is he biding his time?

And SPM and Di, I didn't expect to see you. It's nice to see some other faces around.

Meh- not so much Di, seeing as she voted for me. But I suppose I had it coming from her after I about killed her on Day 1.

(ooh, I just refreshed my window and saw that you changed your vote, thanks thanks)

SPM, I'm relieved that you changed your vote. I kept saying to myself "Surely he doesn't truly honestly think I am the WW", but since you spoke of not returning I was afraid that you really meant what you said.

Your case against Ang is compelling. I told Nogrod earlier that his was as well. And when I asked Ang a bit ago in what other village he acted like he is acting now, he said to check WW X. It seemed like too convenient of an answer to me. He was a Ranger in that village. Surely he wasn't blind to the fact that he also acted off the wall in WW I when he was a WW. Why didn't he mention that one?
As Kath has pointed out, he has indulged in the classic Wolfish ploy of putting forward theories which self-confessedly implicate himself (something, it should be noted, that Eomer did).
I guess I haven't been reading carefully enough. I missed this.
But most of all, he has seemed continually to be testing the water to see whether there might be any prospect of lynching the phantom. Several times during the course of the game, he has indicated that he might consider voting for the phantom (at times jokingly, but this jocular approach might well merely be serving as cover). You see, I think that a Wolfish Anguirel wants to rid himself of his self-confessed nemesis, the phantom, and yet would not stoop so low as to kill him at Night. He wants to see this particular enemy laid low in a fair fight - by getting him lynched. That, in my experience, would be Anguirel all-over.
I do agree with that point. And I would say that is also speaks to his guilt that he hasn't come after me full bore, but has rather been "testing the waters" as you said. Since I've been placing him on my very very innocent list up till today, I don't think he saw it as being worth the risk of going after me completely, and certainly not worth it to kill me in the night. Why put yourself at risk to kill someone who is going along with you? Just keep me around and keep pointing a finger or two at me and be prepared to lynch me if the occasion arises. I can see that.

But at the same time, I'm not as confident about lynching Ang as I was about lynching Eomer.

This might sound stupid, but I'm trying to figure out if my desire to keep Ang alive is based on logic, or partially on emotion because of his rotten luck with me over the years. It's like I feel that I owe it to him, to save him for once rather than kill him. :rolleyes:

Maybe I should want him to be lynched just to be rid of the complication and clear my head? *sigh* I suppose he is one of my suspects and is not one of the individuals on my innocent list, so I guess my refusal to lynch him doesn't make much sense.

Ah, but as I count up the votes I see that the matter is pretty well settled.

I suppose I should tack on my Ang vote and make it final.

Bleh. I agree logically with everything that's been said about him, but I'll just feel so terrible if we're wrong and I kill him yet again. :(

Diamond18

11-19-2006, 08:43 PM

I don't think that SpM, Mith, Kath, or even Nogrod are the wolf. That leaves Tp and Ang, and I wouldn't be surprised about them either way -- wolf or innocent. However, SpM's analysis does make me feel like Ang is the more logical choice. But then, SpM is good at that.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 08:49 PM

Oh, and nice pic, Ang. She's not bad, but that obviously isn't Fea. L's prettier.
You know that won't help you win, right?
Maybe not, but I bet it made you smile. ;)

the phantom

11-19-2006, 08:56 PM

Okay, let's put this out of reach. I don't really want to see a coin flip.

--Kath
++Ang

the phantom

11-19-2006, 08:57 PM

Where is Ang, by the way? Did he say he was leaving?

It seems like the worst possible time to leave.

the phantom

11-19-2006, 08:59 PM

And that vote for you Ang. That's for trying to lynch me on Day 1!

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-19-2006, 09:58 PM

In the village ther was dwellynge a poure scoler, hadde lerned art, but al his fantasye was turned for to lerne a thyng most literarye, and koude a certeyn of conclusiouns to demen by interrogaciouns if that men asked hym in certein houres what he wit of tales, and he could say.

And he knew great things, and spoke with great clarity, and he made those around him smile, and during his time in the village, the Dark Lady cared most specifically to speak with him, but she did not, for she could not. A power of will she did not know possessed her kept her from him, but at his final moment, when the village had spoken, and his fate had been sealed, she could say to him many things, and she could ask him many things, and she delighted in his answers in a way she had never known before. And so bifel bidene opon a somers day Anguirel and the Quen spoke within her play.

"What is bettre than Gold?” he responded to her, “Jaspre. What is bettre than Jaspre? Wisdom. And what is bettre than Wisdom? Womman. And what is bettre than a good Womman? No thyng."

And she told him with a laugh, “The first vertue, sone, if thou wilt lerne, is to restreyne and kepen wel thy tonge.”

And for a time, her Darkness seemed more light. And she told him something: “A few miles from here a frost-stiffened wood waits and keeps watch above a mere; the overhanging bank is a maze of tree-roots mirrored in its surface. At night there, something uncanny happen: the water burns.”

And he did not shiver with fear or wonder, but was curious, as all scholars are, and as they spoke, he forgot his death, and no longer saw the villagers around him, though they spoke to him, and about him, and with him. In his mind, he spoke with the Lady, and they shared many things, and he asked her about the wood and the mere, and the burning water and her Tower, and she told him of her past, and of her present, and for a long time they spoke, but never, she thought, long enough, and she regretted that the village would end his life this evening, now, in moments, in seconds, because he had not been cruel, had not been evil, but had been a scholar, one who delighted in learning what he could, of himself, of her, and of them.

For the first time in this dark, fogged time, the Dark Lady felt a hint of remorse for the cruelty she had thrust upon the village. He did not deserve to die…

And yet… he did.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-20-2006, 09:06 PM

"They were right." he murmured, looking deep into her eyes.

"And what is it," she whispered, "that they were so right about?"

Her breath was poison on the wind; her laughter was gone from midnight and moonlight, and her presence was nothing more than mist. She was beginning to fade. He responded with strength.

"They say if you stare long enough into an abyss, it begins to stare back."

She laughed hollowly. "And you have stared, O Philosophical One, into this abyss?"

"Your eyes are categorically empty of all humanity." he said, acid on his tongue. "You understand that it is imperative this game of yours end?"

"You speak bravely, for a man about to die."

"I will die with honor and with virtue, and be called a good man, if it be for the good of the many."

"We shall see with what honor and virtue you die, when death does call you, and if it is for the better of those you love." And he stared again, into her eyes across moonlight, for though she was in her Tower and he in his chamber, time did not matter, and the miles did not matter, and he heard claws on his door, and it was said ever after of him that nothing in his life became him like the leaving it; he died as one that had been studied in his death, and when it was done, it was said after, that his life had been good.

the phantom

11-20-2006, 09:16 PM

THE LIVING-

Diamond18
Kath
Mithalwen
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

THE DEAD-

Boromir88 (innocent)- bravely faced the gallows on Day 1
mormegil (innocent)- bled by the WWs on Night 2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)- outed by shrewd villagers on Day 2
littlemanpoet (innocent)- lain carefully in grave on Night 3
Estelyn Telcontar (innocent)- kicked the bucket on Day 3
Roa_Aoife (innocent)- dreams invaded by a WW on Night 4
Anguirel (innocent)- lynched by silly villagers on Day 4
Nogrod (innocent)- removed from lynch list by WWs on Night 5

Yesterday's voting-

Ang for Fea (1)
SPM for tp (1)
Mith for Kath (1)
Kath for Ang (1)
Nog for Ang (2)
tp for Kath (2)
Di for tp (2)
SPM take back tp (1)
SPM for Ang (3)
Di take back tp (0)
Di for Ang (4)
tp take back Kath (1)
tp for Ang (5)

the phantom

11-20-2006, 10:07 PM

No more logic from me. From now on it's all going to be whimsical emotions. There is no logic in this game. Everyone is on his own team and is free to act however he wants to act and is interested first and foremost in self preservation as his knowledge of himself is the only sure thing he has to hold onto.

Therefore logically there is no rational way of telling anyone apart. You will see that from Day 1 all the way until the beginning of yesterday I had Ang listed as my most innocent person. Why? Because of feelings. And my feelings were correct, weren't they? But I allowed myself to be swayed with logic and moved Ang down my list a bit.

But even then, late in the day I still didn't want Ang killed and made an offer to him to vote with him against Kath to save his skin, but he never showed up. Instead, SPM showed up and tacked his vote onto Ang, and then Di followed, and it was all over.

I should've fought for Ang's life and put my foot down. I should've trusted the gut feeling that I had the whole game. But I pushed my feelings aside and told myself they were silly.

I was a fool to allow logic to influence me, for logically there is no logic present in this village. Look no further than the nightly kills. Three nights in a row, perfectly good lynch targets have been murdered. If the WW is not playing rationally why in the world are we trying to pick him/her out with rational thinking? We must be buffoons.

So anyway, here's what I've decided.

At the end of the day I'm going to vote for exactly who I feel like voting for, and I refuse to be swayed by extravagant cases and eloquent accusations. I will post my feelings on things like voting and behavior and then I will vote with my gut. It's been right more often. It was right about Ang, Boro, and Eomer. My head hasn't been right once.

And for my first statement of feelings...

I feel like I want SPM to live till the end. I certainly don't feel him to be innocent the way I did Boro and most of the game Ang- Sauce could very well be the WW. But really, there's only a 1 in 4 chance that it's him, so that's a pretty safe bet. Plus, I can't think of a better WW to win than SPM. I like the way he's been playing and I'd love to hear him do a "Mwu ha ha! Here's how I executed my master plan..." at the end.

So, there you have it. I will only vote for SPM to save my own life.

That leaves Di, Kath, and Mith for targets.

Kath has been super quiet this game. I wish we wouldn't have been talked out of bumping her off a couple days ago. If it comes down to the final day and Kath is still around I'm going to vote for her even if I think the other person looks to be the more likely WW, simply because I refuse to allow a WW to win using Kath's ultra-quiet strategy.

I'll talk about Di and Mith later. Tonight if I get the chance, but maybe not till tomorrow after my morning classes.

Oh, and I also plan to embark on a wild goose chase involving a statement made by Fea on her blog. This village is all about her, after all. It would be rude to ignore her.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 03:51 AM

Oh law, thou art a cruel mistress!

You would compel me solemnly to weigh words spoken in innocence. You would have me judge falsely the motives of those by whom they were spoken. And you would drive me to use those very words in the prosecution of those no more guilty than I.

The wisdom of the gravekeeper. The soft voice of the milkmaid. The brazen wit of the scholar. All misjudged in my ramblings and presented in a grotesque distortion of their true intent, as if spoken by the blood-thirsty murderer that ever skulks among us. Innocents all! Yet condemned by my accusations, voiced in a cloud of ignorance and self-doubt.

All I have done, I have done to serve thee my Lady. And yet the beast stalks us still.

Will you not take this blindfold from the eyes of thy poor servant and grant me the satisfaction of knowing my tormentor?

Nay, you will not. For my Lady Justice is blind, and pure hearts are brutally struck down while chaos and cruelty reign supreme.

Well, I will serve thee no more. This prosecutor is no longer in business.

********************************
I have little clue as to the identity of the remaining Wolf and, since all that I have said to date has been amiss and has achieved little but the condemnation of innocent villagers, I have little confidence left in my own judgement.

Any one of you may be a Wolf, and yet three are not. A wrong choice toDay, and we have but one chance left. The fiddler may have finished his tune, but the village burns still.

I should've fought for Ang's life and put my foot down. I should've trusted the gut feeling that I had the whole game. But I pushed my feelings aside and told myself they were silly.Yet another self-serving comment about a lynch victim. :rolleyes:

You seem to have a habit of portraying yourself in a good light. Although that is of little use to me, since you would no doubt do so whether guilty or innocent. Might I remind you, though, that you were all for lynching Nogrod yesterDay. Here’s a self-serving comment from me. I never had the feeling that Nogrod was anything but innocent.

At the end of the day I'm going to vote for exactly who I feel like voting for, and I refuse to be swayed by extravagant cases and eloquent accusations. I will post my feelings on things like voting and behavior and then I will vote with my gut. It's been right more often. It was right about Ang, Boro, and Eomer. My head hasn't been right once.As my somewhat melodramatic introduction to this post indicates, I feel much the same way. Every time that I have tried logically to analyse my fellow villagers, my thoughts have missed their mark.

I feel like I want SPM to live till the end. I certainly don't feel him to be innocent the way I did Boro and most of the game Ang- Sauce could very well be the WW. But really, there's only a 1 in 4 chance that it's him, so that's a pretty safe bet. Plus, I can't think of a better WW to win than SPM. I like the way he's been playing and I'd love to hear him do a "Mwu ha ha! Here's how I executed my master plan..." at the end.You wouldn't be trying to flatter me to divert me, by any chance, would you? :p

Funny, though. I feel much the same way about you. Except that I am not so sure that I want you to live to the end. If for no other reason than to put my mind at rest and ensure that, should I survive until tomorrow and the Wolf remains, I am no longer plagued by the paranoia that has beset me throughout the game as far as you are concerned.

It might assist, however, were you to explain now precisely what you meant by that first post of yours, why it establishes your innocence and why, were you a Wolf, you would not say much the same thing to give yourself a cloak of innocence. You indicated yesterDay that you might explain, if your life were in danger. It would be helpful if you were to do so now.

Some further thoughts before I go.

Would it have served the Wolf’s interests to have played this game recklessly (which would implicate Diamond/Mithalwen), quietly (which would implicate Kath) or loudly and analytically (which would implicate the phantom/myself)?

And what’s with Diamond and this constant obsession with trying to tie up the votes at the end of the Day?

I will be back later (though probably not until much later, as I am busy today) with further thoughts.

Kath

11-21-2006, 05:24 AM

Hang on. How do you know that is was Nogrod that was killed phantom? I see no name mentioned in the narrative. Or have I missed something really obvious here? :confused:

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 06:06 AM

How could you kill Ang? How do I choose between such wolvish folk?

Nogrod is a philosophy teacher.... but that doesn't mean TP doesn't know too much...

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 06:30 AM

Just popping in briefly ...

Hang on. How do you know that is was Nogrod that was killed phantom? I see no name mentioned in the narrative. Or have I missed something really obvious here?Good point. I was working on the basis of the phantom's list, and it didn't really occur to me that no name had acually been mentioned in the narrative. Although, the references to the victim being a philospher do point towards Nogrod. Perhaps phantom just assumed. Or perhaps he did not need to ...

Another thing that I just noticed:

Nogrod (innocent)- removed from lynch list by WWs on Night 5WWs? Plural?

How could you kill Ang?Well, he himself said at some point that he looked Wolfish and that he would lynch him were he us, or something along those lines. There was a plausible basis for thinking him to be the Wolf. Then again, right now I could make out a plausible case for any one of us (myself included) being the remaining Wolf. I rather share the phantom's devloping pessimism over the chances of us catching the last Wolf on the basis of logical analysis. Which is rather annoying, as that is how I generally like to work.

Kath

11-21-2006, 06:33 AM

Alright, I have to go and as we don't yet have an answer from phantom:

++PHANTOM

I know I'm not giving him a chance to explain himself, but I just have no time toDay.

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 06:40 AM

Well I have to go for a while but I think that the choice is most likely now between
Phantom and Diamond but not certain

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 08:59 AM

Clarification: Yes, it was Nogrod... I thought I posted it on the Discussion Thread, but my computer tweaked, then I had to be somewhere, then I gave up on consciousness and snuggled into bed. Sorry. :)

the phantom

11-21-2006, 10:55 AM

Bleh. Kath already voted for me and she's probably gone now and can't take it back.

No more votes for me people!
It might assist, however, were you to explain now precisely what you meant by that first post of yours, why it establishes your innocence and why, were you a Wolf, you would not say much the same thing to give yourself a cloak of innocence. You indicated yesterDay that you might explain, if your life were in danger. It would be helpful if you were to do so now.
Yes, it seems that I have no choice.

All right, everyone, mark down this day on your calendar- for this is the day that the phantom has been forced to completely remake himself. From this village onward I will play in a slightly different way, for I am now revealing how I have played up until now thus making it impossible to continue.

On Day 1 I said this-
I am not a Werewolf.
That means I am not a Werewolf.

Do you recall what I said on your "WW Dream Team" thread some time ago? One day Mith said-
I find it virtually impossible to lie under any circumstances. So being a wolf was peculiarly stressfull
And my answer-
Then don't lie when you're a wolf, Mith.

When you read my posts in Werewolf X (I was a wolf in that game) you will find that I barely lied at all.

The key is to tell truths that don't lead to the truth.
That is the key!

If you read WW II and WW X (I was a victorious WW in those games), you will find that I never once denied being a WW. I only ever do that in games where I am innocent. Oh, certainly I defend myself in those games and explain why someone's accusations are unfounded and show how logically their "tp is a ww" theory doesn't work, but I never straight up deny it.

So there it is, SPM. That's what I was trying to point you towards. The very fact that I outright denied being a WW means that I'm not one.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 11:07 AM

Some thoughts/points to consider from my review of the thread.

I must say that the phantom does appear to have been uncharacteristically “flip-floppy” in this game. Esty, for example, went from his “lynch list” on Day 1 to someone whose innocence he was apparently convinced of at the time she was lynched, and who he claims to have been sorry to see killed in only her second game. Strange that, given that he was willing to consider lynching her on Day 1.

On the other hand, he was originally convinced of the innocence of Nogrod and Anguirel, only to come round to suspecting them shortly before they both died. He was so convinced at Nogrod’s innocence, in fact, that he declared him innocent at one point, and also implored Mithalwen to retract her vote for him (on Day 2, I think). Yet he was considering him a definite Wolfish possibility yesterDay.

Yes, I know that he has explained all this (mostly ex post facto, I might add), but it almost seems that his views change depending on the way the village is thinking. And that is most unlike him, strong-minded as he generally is.

The kills – mormegil, Elempi, Roa and Nogrod.

What do they all have in common? They are all logical, analytical players. Yet, as the phantom has said, logical, analytical thinking has not got us very far to date (although, to be fair, there was a logical basis for suspecting and lynching Eomer).

Who would be more likely to target the logical, analytical players? Unpredictable types, such as Diamond and Mithalwen, since it suits them to keep the more unpredictable players around? Or the more logical, analytical types, such as phantom, Kath and myself, who may fear the sword of logic being used against them?

I really don’t know. There are reasonable arguments either way.

One of the indicators that led people to suspect Eomer was that he was quiet on Day 1. In this game, the best course for a Wolf has perhaps been to lie relatively low, while maintaining a presence. After all, there is little to lead us to a Wolf save in what people say. A Wolf would be well advised, therefore, not to say too much, and to avoid saying or doing anything controversial. Of those still with us, Kath best matches this pattern of behaviour. Although I still wonder whether a Wolf would have absented herself for a full Day. Then again, Children in Need is hardly a great excuse (for those in the dark, it is a charity telethon).

And while on the subject of Kath, Mithalwen said the following a day or so ago:

Kath The assassin wolf par excellance would be an excellent contrast to Eomer - she has a knack of never being quite the most suspicious person.Very true. And she has still managed never to be quite the most suspicious one here.

I was also interested by the following comment:

I think that many of the people who said my silence would be a fantastic tactic for a wolf are absolutely right. The self-confessed Wolfish behaviour ploy? That said, the kills do not bear her hallmark. Generally, I think, she tends to go for the more logical kills when she is a Wolf.

As regards Wolfish location, of those left, three are in the UK and two are in the US. Going on Mithalwen’s theory of one Wolf either side of the Atlantic, that would point to Diamond or the phantom. But I have never been overly convinced by that theory, particularly as I believe the remaining Wolf to be the one randomly (or at least indirectly) selected.

I’m not really sure where these thoughts are leading me. As I said, I could make a plausible case for anyone here being a Wolf right now. But I would like to hear from the phantom on the points that have been raised toDay, and from anyone who might have any useful thoughts, whether on my musings above or otherwise.

the phantom

11-21-2006, 11:09 AM

And what’s with Diamond and this constant obsession with trying to tie up the votes at the end of the Day?
Indeed, that gave me a bad feeling the way she tried to vote for me when she thought there was a chance of killing me but then quickly transfered her vote to Ang to jump on that dogpile.
Hang on. How do you know that is was Nogrod that was killed phantom? I see no name mentioned in the narrative. Or have I missed something really obvious here?
You're kidding, right? :rolleyes:

The narrative made it obvious the victim was male, and then the Dark Lady referred to him as "O Philosophical One", and as that was the only description it gave of him and it was upper case (as if it was a name) it quite obviously was intended to reveal his identity. So, I went to the planning thread and looked to see who chose "philosopher" as his occupation, and there on page 2 was Nogrod saying "I will be a retired professor of philosophy".

Simple as that.

Are you seriously going to suspect me of wolvery because, unlike you, I'm willing to spend enough time on this village to figure out simple things like who died?
WWs? Plural?
Heh heh. I noticed that as soon as I posted it, but there's that darn "no edit" rule.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 11:15 AM

Crossed with the phantom

So there it is, SPM. That's what I was trying to point you towards. The very fact that I outright denied being a WW means that I'm not one.Well then, I did get the wrong end of the stick. I thought it was something to do with your reference to proven innocent lists.

I understand your reasoning, and it makes sense. But there is always the possibility that you changed your manner of play for this game, specifically with the intent of using this apparent "proof of innocence".

A Wolf explicitly stating that he/she is not a Wolf is rarely a damaging lie, and indeed will be implicit in much of what a Wolf says. I outright denied being a Wolf when I was one, and it did me no harm whatsoever.

And would you care to explain how you came to assume that Nogrod was the one killed last Night? I would think an innocent phantom more likely to question the Dark Lady, rather than making any assumptions.

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 11:31 AM

As regards Wolfish location, of those left, three are in the UK and two are in the US. Going on Mithalwen’s theory of one Wolf either side of the Atlantic, that would point to Diamond or the phantom. But I have never been overly convinced by that theory, particularly as I believe the remaining Wolf to be the one randomly (or at least indirectly) selected.

I’m not really sure where these thoughts are leading me. As I said, I could make a plausible case for anyone here being a Wolf right now. But I would like to hear from the phantom on the points that have been raised toDay, and from anyone who might have any useful thoughts, whether on my musings above or otherwise.

It was not so much a theory more a pondering.... but the only thing that occured t day .. as I pondered my continued existance was the fact that this game will reach it's conclusion on US thanksgiving day.

I wonder if the wolf has factored that in to his kill choices... also knowing that I cannot possibly be around to so long becasu eI must vote early and inconclusively... must adjourn to another place ... will pick up then...

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 11:47 AM

... this game will reach it's conclusion on US thanksgiving day ... I wonder if the wolf has factored that in to his kill choices...Not sure what you're getting at here ...

Although, if you are right, it proves my innocence, as I have (or had) no idea when Thanksgiving Day is. :D

In any event, the game may yet end toDay, if we make the right choice ...

And who says the Wolf is a he? :p ;)

The narrative made it obvious the victim was male, and then the Dark Lady referred to him as "O Philosophical One", and as that was the only description it gave of him and it was upper case (as if it was a name) it quite obviously was intended to reveal his identity. So, I went to the planning thread and looked to see who chose "philosopher" as his occupation, and there on page 2 was Nogrod saying "I will be a retired professor of philosophy".

Simple as that.I'm still not convinced that an innocent phantom would make such an assumption without questioning the Dark Lady. Surely, the temptation to tease our dark tormentress would be too difficult to resist.

Then again, I am far from convinced that a Wolfish phantom would make such an elementary slip up.

the phantom

11-21-2006, 12:06 PM

But there is always the possibility that you changed your manner of play for this game, specifically with the intent of using this apparent "proof of innocence".
I wouldn't stoop that low. That would completely strip away any feeling of accomplishment.

My whole thing about never denying being a WW was an issue of pride. I thought it was a fantastic accomplishment- being truthful to the point that you never say "I'm not a WW" and never ask "Why was so-and-so killed last night?" except in games where such statements would be true. It's hard to explain exactly. I just sort of got this insane pleasure from being a fairly truthful WW. It was a joy to tell the villagers why the WWs killed who they did the night before, when I was actually the WW and was telling them my own kill strategy. I found it sickeningly delightful.
I'm still not convinced that an innocent phantom would make such an assumption without questioning the Dark Lady.
Why?

It was a fact that someone died. There is no Ranger to save us. So the fact that a death took place was in no way arguable.

It was a fact that the deceased was a male, which meant you, Nog, or I.

The thought that it was me occured to me, but that thought vanished by the time I reached the end, for there is a particular something Fea would say if it was my death. You see, I made a special request that upon my death a certain Shakespeare quote be worked in, and Fea granted my request.

So that narrowed the choice down to you and Nog. So that's when I went to the Planning Thread to see which of you was the Philosopher.

It was Nog.

Seeing as her narrative led me to a very solid conclusion, I didn't see the point in questioning her. She wasn't vague.
Then again, I am far from convinced that a Wolfish phantom would make such an elementary slip up.
Bingo.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 12:08 PM

I promise Thanksgiving has nothing to do with anything. Maybe if I took part in the vague holiday festivities... but I'm not a fan. I pretty much boycott as much of it as possible and this year I even managed to schedule work on the day. :rolleyes: If there's anything involved in it, it's coincidence.

And if I were you, I'd kill the phantom. :p

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 12:17 PM

I promise Thanksgiving has nothing to do with anything.Bah! Bang goes my alibi ... :( ;)

Then again, do you speak for the Wolf?

And if I were you, I'd kill the phantom.I'm game. But what's in it for me? ;)

the phantom

11-21-2006, 12:19 PM

And if I were you, I'd kill the phantom.
What, am I no longer making this village entertaining for you?

Ha! I know what it is. The Dark Lady wishes so eagerly for my death because I'm distracting to her, so intense is her lust for me.

I'm right- I know I am.

Heh- I just remembered something. In post #386 Ang said this-
Some say that, maddened by the contempt with which she was spurned by a mischievous spirit of ethereal and arrogant substance, she determined to yoke all others into slavery or subsume them in death, while displaying that she knew more literature than they did.
See? I'm right. She had the hots for me and I turned her down (because of her awful taste in literature ;) ) and that's when she turned to darkness!

So, of course she wants me dead. That's what this whole thing is about! That's the point of this village! Kill Phantom! If I survive then she loses and we win!

And here all this time I've been thinking the village was all about Fea, when in fact it's all about me! Why didn't I see this before?

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 12:19 PM

That would completely strip away any feeling of accomplishment.So, you accept that were you to be the Wolf and were you win, it will be a hollow victory? :p

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 12:32 PM

Not sure what you're getting at here ...

Although, if you are right, it proves my innocence, as I have (or had) no idea when Thanksgiving Day is. :D

In any event, the game may yet end toDay, if we make the right choice ...

And who says the Wolf is a he? :p ;)

Don't mistake me for one of those feminists who systematically place gender neutrality before grammar. As far as I am concerned, on gender the chances are even. I am not a wolf and unles the rest of you are not as you seem that leaves 2 male and 2 female suspects.

I think you, Sauce, said something about Di wanting ot tie up the vote at the end, and it did make me wonder if it suited the wolf to have fewer people around at the end of the day (hence mainly US side night kills) and possibly to keep someone who would have to vote early always.. who couldn't retract ..

To be honest this theory is based partly on successful wolf game when on the last day I just had to wait for one innocent to get a vote and it was game over.
The rules were rather different - can't retract, in event of a tie first to the tied number of votes dies... but I just thought it worth mentioning as a possibility...

I do want to check out DI though..our paths haven't crossed at all... it is always worth looking at those who slip under one's radar for too long...

the phantom

11-21-2006, 12:36 PM

So, you accept that were you to be the Wolf and were you win, it will be a hollow victory?
Well, let me think for a second...

Okay. If I ended up being the victorious WW I would certainly congratulate myself on being able to stay alive despite all the attention (and votes) I got at various stages of the game. I would also pat myself on the back for winning Fea's game.

However I would be severely disappointed about Eomer's passing. If I was a WW you can bet that my goal would be to get to the final day with both WWs still alive. So that would dampen my spirits.

Also, the fact that I had to play so different than usual would sour the victory a bit, though I would make the excuse that this was a game unlike any other and therefore required a different style of play.

But, I stand by the fact that I would not have denied being a WW were I a WW. So I must end all speculation here. It would indeed be a "hollow victory" if I declared my innocence and then gave away my secret and skated by on the strength of it- however as I would never do that the question has no merit.

It's like asking me if I'd feel bad if I cheated on a girlfriend. I suppose I could say "yes" to that question, but it would be pointless because that's something that I simply won't do, therefore the question is meaningless.

Oh, and earlier I mentioned a "wild goose chase" involving Fea's blog.

Here's the quote from our Dark Lady-
And I realized that one of my TiG players said something dead on accurate. It made me laugh. Especially when nobody else paid attention.
What do you suppose that is? Any ideas at all?

the phantom

11-21-2006, 12:47 PM

And just for the sake of stat-keeping, here are the posting numbers for our remaining five players. (I'm basing this off the assumption that SPM's last list was correct)

the phantom- 95
The Saucepan Man- 54
Mithalwen- 43
Diamond18- 35
Kath- 16

Wow. That's quite a gap- 80 posts between Kath and I.

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 01:04 PM

Bound to be me.. having an unwitting Cassandra moment again....

the phantom

11-21-2006, 01:27 PM

And I realized that one of my TiG players said something dead on accurate. It made me laugh. Especially when nobody else paid attention.
What do you suppose that is? Any ideas at all?
I realize that considering how many posts there are none of us are likely to pick up on what it was Fea was speaking of (except the WW perhaps), but a couple things came to mind when I read what Fea said.

At the beginning of Day 2 I said this-
Mith for Beth?? Very odd. Were Fea's WWs given special instructions to create as much chaos as possible?
Now, I'm not trying to say that for sure Mith is the WW. What I'm theorizing is that my statement about WWs trying to create chaos was correct. The kills thus far have certainly been in order with that statement.

And later that day I said this-
Along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if maybe the WWs are killing off the least random/crazy people, and will let be individuals capable of madness and more unpredictable behavior. It would make sense after all. This is a village designed to be more random than others. If this is what the WWs are doing, then Nogrod and SPM won't live long. Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.
That has sort of been the case, right? lmp, Roa, and Nog, the more logical ones have died, while Di and Mith are still alive as I predicted.

But as I said earlier, this is likely a wild goose chase and Fea was looking at something completely different. :rolleyes:

Anyone else have a better idea?

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 01:35 PM

I can only repeat that I may be a bit crazy but I am an accountant, however (to use a Pratchettism) "bursar" I had gone, as a wolf, I would not have risked wasting a kill for fun. That would not be prudent..... :rolleyes:

However if you lynch me it would force the wolf to kill someone else tonight which might be more helpful than my death.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 02:03 PM

Mith said it. :cool:

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 02:05 PM

Wasn't the Fea is killing unlikely people at night because both wolves are dead one I suppose :rolleyes:

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 02:16 PM

Do you really expect me to answer that?

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 02:18 PM

No but then I didn't expect you to confirm I was the truth speaker :D ... I know you haven't finished your sport with us..... you will have your pound of flesh :D

the phantom

11-21-2006, 02:20 PM

Night 2 kill-
"You have been brave." she murmered without turning. "But you have not been wise."
Remember way back then when we were considering what this meant, and thinking maybe the WW/WWs were on the verge of being lynched on day one?

That would implicate Di. I tied her with Boro at the last moment, but she won the coin flip.

Di seems to like coin flips. She tried to tie the voting both of the last two days. What's with that? Two days ago it was SPM she elevated and then yesterday it was me.

And she always (if I'm remembering right) uses her take back.

I'm leaning towards Di right now.
Mith said it.
All right. I'm going to go back and read all of Mith's posts and dig up some possibilites.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 02:30 PM

Wasn't the Fea is killing unlikely people at night because both wolves are dead one I suppose :rolleyes:
No but then I didn't expect you to confirm I was the truth speaker :D ... I know you haven't finished your sport with us..... you will have your pound of flesh :D
Ah, well, in that case...

It has zilch to do with me killing unlikely people at night because both wolvees are dead.

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 02:31 PM

You only have to read the ones pre the blog post.

the phantom

11-21-2006, 02:56 PM

Here are some Mith quotes that she may have been right about.
This game has heavy Shalespearean overtones and promises from witches are not to be taken at face value as anyone who has read the Scottish play will know
There is that other outside possibility that Morm was a wolf and Fea is messing with our heads by picking off unlikely folk at night..
Looking through all her posts these two statements seem like the most likely to draw a reaction from Fea such as she gave.

Of course if the second one is right then you realize what this means. :rolleyes:

But wait. Fea said that "no one paid attention". That isn't true about the "no wolves" comment made by Mith, because I paid attention.

I said this-
That thought has occured to me several times, but seeing as we have not been dismissed by our master I don't think there's anything to do besides continue lynching.
So Fea couldn't have been talking about that!

So perhaps she meant this-
Diamond - was lucky yesterday, and new wolves are often nervously loud.
Eomer - was far too quiet for comfort.
Was Mith right twice in one post?

The other possible quote might be this-
And I don't think we can assume that the other wolf would have been the wolf's top priority that was Sauce's theory and I shall have another look ..... It still worries me that he was so keen to know the wolves relation to each other .. and if I recall correctly he never feels he has won if he is not alive and so a wolvish sauce would take scant pleasure from the other wolf's victory if he did not survive...
And then it could also be something stupid I'm completely missing that actually wouldn't even help us in lynching.

I'm hoping it's just the first quote that she was right about- the thing about the promises of a witch.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 02:59 PM

What do you suppose that is? Any ideas at all?Yes, I did ruminate over that, but nothing sprang out at me. I could not see anything that I thought significant that had not been picked up. Then again, I may have been missing the significance in something incredibly significant. :rolleyes:

Mith said it.I suspected as much.

You only have to read the ones pre the blog post.I haven't time to look back now, but will do so later if I get the chance. Let us know if you find anything in the meantime, TP.

And later that day I said this-
Along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if maybe the WWs are killing off the least random/crazy people, and will let be individuals capable of madness and more unpredictable behavior. It would make sense after all. This is a village designed to be more random than others. If this is what the WWs are doing, then Nogrod and SPM won't live long. Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.Yes, that's another thing that I was pondering. It's what prompted my thoughts on the division of the village between the unpredictable and the analytical. Problem, is that it can lead you either way. The Wolf may have been acting unpredictably both Day and Night, on its Mistress's instructions, or it may have been hiding its true nature during the Day and acting crazily only at Night.

Remember way back then when we were considering what this meant, and thinking maybe the WW/WWs were on the verge of being lynched on day one?Yup. Another thing that I considered when I reviewed the thread. Yet there still remains the possibility that the Wolves had incurred the Lady's displeasure at the end of Day 1 because they had not been acting sufficiently chaotically. That might be said to be true of Eomer, at least. And, of course, it's quite possible that there was no clue intended here at all.

That said, my own thoughts are turning towards Diamond. It does unnerve me somewhat that she always strives to tie the vote. On the one hand, it seems rather attention-grabbing for a Wolf. But, on the other, it is in keeping with her general approach to the game. Even an unpredictable Wolf has to make calculated choices to survive. What better way to cloak such Wolfish calcualtions than to present them as consistent with a generally random pattern of behavior?

And remember, phantom, when you warned Diamond that she would get herself lynched if she carried on the way she had been. Well, she has not really altered her behaviour, and yet she remains unlynched.

My one reservation is that I can't help feeling that she is too much the obvious choice for toDay ...

Still, it increases my confidence in you somewhat, phantom, that you and I are thinking along the same lines.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 03:00 PM

And then it could also be something stupid I'm completely missing that actually wouldn't even help us in lynching.
Would I intentionally hand you knowledge that would help you?

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 03:12 PM

May be it was that you were loud and annoying when you weren't flirting, Phantom, my love..... :D

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 03:25 PM

I have to go soon and I think I am going to vote for Diamond.

Kath has pulled the wool over my eyes before and I will kick myself if she is tha wolf but I think she has been a bit too disengaged to be a wolf. If she is a wolf her lack of involvement would be a dampener.

Phantom and PanMan ..I have been suspectiong you alternately and can't decide....

Diamond..... also quiet but manipulative. Could be classic flying under radar wolf.

Have an inkling she would have been keener than most to get Roa out of the way...

Comments ..or are you boys going to lynch me?
:p

the phantom

11-21-2006, 03:33 PM

Would I intentionally hand you knowledge that would help you?
I'm guessing no as that would be unfair to the WW.

But, you didn't "hand us knowledge", so I'm not sure that your question and my answer rule out anything I've said.
May be it was that you were loud and annoying when you weren't flirting, Phantom, my love..... :D
"Annoying", maybe, but loud? Psh, I've been a regular Kath in this game.
Phantom and PanMan ..I have been suspectiong you alternately and can't decide....
Mwu ha ha! Actually, we're both Werecreatures! He's the WW and I'm a Werebear. Fea never said there wasn't a Werebear, did she now?
Comments ..or are you boys going to lynch me?
I doubt it. Not quite so much as SPM, but there have been a couple instances in this game where you've had the absolute perfect innocent reaction to something, and thus if you are a WW you have done a worthy enough acting job to deserve a pass through today. ;)

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 03:36 PM

but innocent I am...

Shall I stay around for your hundreth post, Mr Taciturn?

the phantom

11-21-2006, 03:46 PM

Shall I stay around for your hundreth post, Mr Taciturn?
What? I've been around on the Downs for years. I passed the 100 mile marker a long time ago.

Oh. You mean on this individual thread.

That's pretty darn scary if you ask me. But then I promised Fea that I was dedicated to making her happy when I agreed to join the village. That's been my number one goal.

And if only you knew the joking that went on via pm surrounding that goal. *snigger* You know I love you, Fea. ;)

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 03:49 PM

You know I love you, Fea. ;)
I love cake.

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 03:49 PM

Oh well now I might have to vote for you in a fit of jealous rage.... use lynching as a vehicle for a crime passionnel.....

the phantom

11-21-2006, 03:56 PM

Oh, Mith, don't you remember Ang's quote- I spurned the Dark Lady. My "love" for her is the brother-sister variety. She wanted me to pull a Turin and I refused.
I love cake.
Ha ha! Reminds me of the time I told a GF of mine that she had moved up to the #53 spot on my "Things I Like" list, just above BBQ potato chips and below the movie "Speed".

Ah, but seriously, which way are you going with this, Mith?

Di or Kath?

As I said, I'm leaning Di currently.

If you're the WW all you have to do is get Di lynched today and leave Kath and I alive for tomorrow, for I will be voting for her.

Feanor of the Peredhil

11-21-2006, 04:01 PM

just above BBQ potato chips and below the movie "Speed".
You liked her more than BBQ chips and she wasn't happy? I think you were dating the wrong girl, love.

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 04:07 PM

Di.... Kath seems more convincing today.. and it may be nothing but somehow night kills of Elempi, Roa, Nogrod seem more Di than Kath.

But any of you could be guilty. but I think Di or Kath are most likely ..you and Sauce ... hmm alpha male combats are not a wolvish monopoly.......

but for today I will go for the distaff section of the village......I think..

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 04:09 PM

You liked her more than BBQ chips and she wasn't happy? I think you were dating the wrong girl, love.

Being seen as less animated than Keanu Reeves isn't a great aphrodisiac.... almost up there with "almost beautiful in this light...." grrrrrrrrrrrr

Mithalwen

11-21-2006, 04:19 PM

Time to go..cannot stop yawning ...and there is a bottle of cab sav awaiting my return... I hear it calling me

++ Diamond18

the phantom

11-21-2006, 04:25 PM

You liked her more than BBQ chips and she wasn't happy? I think you were dating the wrong girl, love.
Undoubtedly.

But then again, I didn't say it was a particular brand of BBQ chips, like Dino.

But it was "Speed" being in front of her that she found so offensive. She wasn't an action movie fan, and not a Keanu fan. Yeah... that should've been a clue that she wasn't right. Who in their right mind doesn't appreciate action movies and Keanu?

I will be leaving in about an hour, and will be gone till the last half hour of the day. Just so everyone knows.

I can't believe we've generated this many pages when you consider our village size isn't very large and the top thing that gets discussion time in most villages (Wolf team behavior) isn't even present.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 05:07 PM

Back. But I'm tired and have a busy morning tomorrow. So I'll likely only be around for another hour or so.

Just saw this:

The other possible quote might be this-
And I don't think we can assume that the other wolf would have been the wolf's top priority that was Sauce's theory and I shall have another look ..... It still worries me that he was so keen to know the wolves relation to each other .. and if I recall correctly he never feels he has won if he is not alive and so a wolvish sauce would take scant pleasure from the other wolf's victory if he did not survive...Can't be that because it's not dead on accurate. I have always made clear my opinion that Werewolf, the regular variety at least, is a team game. I consider that all on the winning team are entitled to share in the victory, even if they do not survive to the end. As for this game (which is hardly regular), I remain unclear whether the Wolves were ever on the same team. I would have made the same enquiry regarding that issue whether a Wolf or innocent. Difference is, I would not have revealed my understanding had I been a Wolf.

I see that the village is leaning towards lynching Diamond. Unless I am much mistaken, however, she has not put in an appearance toDay. Would a Wolf really be absent for the best part of the Day with so few villagers and a distinct possibility of being lynched? Unless she is gambling on us giving her the same leeway that we gave Kath teo Days ago.

Hmm.

the phantom

11-21-2006, 05:08 PM

It would be nice if everyone was here. You see, I just had a wild idea for a plan that would guarantee a Villager victory.

Now, that doesn't mean anyone would go along with it. The plan is ridiculous and so I can see people refusing it, but the fact remains that it is a fool proof plan. The main reason people wouldn't go along with it is that there doesn't seem to be absolute trust in my declaration of innocence. To that, I don't know what to say, other than just think of who you're dealing with here, and trust your gut. Surely in your gut you know I'm innocent and that I wouldn't be content to win as a WW at this point.

And then, even if you don't trust my declaration, trust statistics. From the view of another innocent, there is only a 25% chance that I am a WW. That's as good odds as you can get in this game. You might as well take a gamble and trust me.

Then, once everyone agrees to trust me, the four of you use all of your votes up so that there can't be any take-backs. Tie everyone at one vote a piece so that I can decide who to lynch.

Then, all four of you go back to their most recent post and EDIT IT!!

As you know, according to the rules that will give you instant death. And so, if everyone dies except me then the village wins! And if anyone refuses to edit their post, then it is obvious that they are the remaining WW and I will vote to lynch them and thus they will die despite their refusal to edit their post.

That's brilliant, eh?

Of course, there's no possible way it's going to happen because Kath isn't here and I think Mith is gone now, too.

But I just had to say it. I couldn't resist. :D

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 05:09 PM

In light of what the FeaMod said, is there any point in me trawling through Mith's posts?

I'm betting that it was the thing about the phantom being loud and annoying. :p

the phantom

11-21-2006, 05:11 PM

*sniff* You Brits are so mean.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 05:12 PM

Even if we could put our trust in you 100% phantom, that would be an appalling way to win.

And to think that I incurred such disapproval some time back for attempting to secure a village win through a mass lynching ...

the phantom

11-21-2006, 05:16 PM

Even if we could put our trust in you 100% phantom, that would be an appalling way to win.
Ha ha ha! :D The WW would be seriously angry.
And to think that I incurred such disapproval some time back for attempting to secure a village win through a mass lynching ...
I wouldn't have disapproved.

Remember, I'm the guy that in WW IV, put forth a plan that called for us to lynch innocent volunteers the first two days. :smokin:

And the village regretted not following my plan, for we lynched our Ranger on Day 1.

The Saucepan Man

11-21-2006, 05:23 PM

OK. Here's the way that I have been thinking.

I am willing to continue placing my trust in the phantom's seeming innocence - for toDay, at least. You do realise, TP, that if you are the Wolf and you win, I will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever be able to trust you again and shall campaign ceaselessly for your lynching in every future game that I play in with you.

Having played Goose to Kath's Duck, and having spotted her and dutifully helped her to the win, I like to think that I would be able to spot a KathWolf. I have seen some possible furriness in her voting. However, other than that, the only basis for suspecting her is her quietness. And, in my experience, a lupine Kath is not as quiet as this, particularly when she has been arousing suspicion.

If Mithalwen is a Wolf, I shall personally hack myself into convenient bite-size portions and deliver them nicely hand packaged to her. I sense not a whiff of lyncanthrope about her. If she be the Wolf, she deserves the win.

Which leaves me with Diamond, about whom some good points have been made toDay. But would she be so quiet with so much at stake? It's just not like her.