Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[The Saucepan Man]

If you're the WW all you have to do is get Di lynched today and leave Kath and I alive for tomorrow, for I will be voting for her.Which leaves ... er ... oh, gee, thanks Mr P. :( ;)

Now, how's that post count of mine going ...

[the phantom]

Well, that does it. No WW would take the time to type that many "ever"s. SPM has to be innocent. Either that or once again he has displayed a perfect innocent reaction to something and thus should win as a WW.

As far as Kath and Di, I said from the start that I was leaning Di, and with Mith's vote for her as well as SPM's stated experience sniffing out a Were-Kath, Di definitely seems like the way to go.

++Diamond18

Even if she's innocent at least I feel pretty good about my vote today.

[the phantom]

I'll be back 30 minutes before the deadline. Bye.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, that does it. No WW would take the time to type that many "ever"s.No. They would cunningly use "cut and paste". ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

It just occurred to me that, if we lynch Diamond and she turns out to be the Wolf, it means that the game would most probably have ended with a village win on Day 2 but for the flip of a coin ...

[The Saucepan Man]

I need to get some sleep ...

++Diamond18

[the phantom]

No. They would cunningly use "cut and paste".
Those tricky devils. They know all the shortcuts.
It just occurred to me that, if we lynch Diamond and she turns out to be the Wolf, it means that the game would most probably have ended with a village win on Day 2 but for the flip of a coin ...
In most villages there is a very fine line between a blowout WW win and a blowout villager win. Pretty much every village that I've ever been in, there was one tiny little thing that if it would've been different the whole game would've changed.
I need to get some sleep ...
Let us hope this night's sleep is not interrupted.

And Di, if you are innocent then just consider this payback for voting for me twice. :p

But of course I'm rather hoping that you are guilty.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

End of Day. Shh, sleepy time.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

For many days and nights chance had held her high, delivering her from death, keeping her in safe company, guarded carefully within cloud castles of the mind, armed with winged golden archers stocked with flaming arrows, and tall swordsmen clad in silver mail to keep her and to guide her from harm's way, and she seemed safe from all that was ill in this village. But this evening came and she knew her priviledge had expired, for now it was not in the stars to hold her destiny but in the selves around her. And the selves had chosen.

And a blade sliced over soft stone, gleaming silver in the last light of day, and she looked at it sadly, and she spoke to the stars, and to any voice who could hear, "My love, my dearest love, your sacrifice bought me only few more days, fleeting days, and full of fear, but for it, my only, my dearest, I thank you."

And the sword cut through the air and met with her and she fell to the village, and lay pale upon the ground, and blood spilled gently from her neck around her severed head until it seemed to form a halo, and the villagers looked toward each other with alarm, for they had seemed so sure, and they were filled with regret, for it was only for the Dark Lady’s issues had they filed their minds; for the gracious Diamond had they murdered; put rancors in the vessel of their peace only for her; and their Eternal Jewel was given to the common enemy of man.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

"I pray you, sir, is it your will to make me a stale amongst these mates?" Her first words rang sharply through the moonlight, and no one could hear them. Those still alive of the village slept soundly, as though drugged, and Kath was by no means the calmest nor happiest she had ever been. Her father, long dead, oft bore the brunt of her midnight anger, and she blamed his spirit for every misdeed, and every upset, and every part of her life that went wrong, because it was easier to be cruel than to be kind. And she knew that, kind man as he had been, he would understand her need for somebody to blame, and his label of father seemed so convenient...

She glared at nothing and continued her monologue, speaking her frustration with those around her to the silently listening walls. She had a feeling, one of deepest concern, that she would meet her father once again in far too soon a time. Her only comfort was that she could explain to him then how he had become so useful to her. Until such a time, she would continue to talk to herself, and call it to him. She asked him of her death.

"Why," she began, "and I trust I may go to-night, may I not? What, shall I be appointed hours; as though, belike I knew not what to take and what to leave, ha?"

It was not until then that she knew. She would not suffer an uncertain death at the hands of an unknown enemy. She would not be tamed so easily. Her words, so thoughtless now held new meaning.

When the village found her at dawn, it was with an empty jar from the apothecary, and she smelled strongly of drink. She had known well what to take, and she had left them. And in her ready hand they found a note:

My mind hath been as big as one of yours,
My heart as great, my reason haply more,
To bandy word for word and frown for frown;
But now I see our lances are but straws,
Our strength as weak, our weakness past compare,
That seeming to be most which we indeed least are.

[The Saucepan Man]

Is it me, or are the Nights drawing in. :p ;)

Well, I wasn't expecting that. Here is the modest reasoning that I worked out overnight:

SpM dies: Wolf = Mithalwen
Phantom dies: Wolf = Kath
Mithalwen dies: Wolf = phantom
Kath will not die.

:rolleyes:

The wolf makes an unpredictable kill yet again.

I had more or less settled on the idea that, if the phantom and I both remained alive on the final Day, then the phantom must be the Wolf. But that was on the assumption that, in such circumstances, Mithalwen would be the one to die overNight ...

I still find it difficult to see why on earth any Wolf would want to be left with both the phantom and I as company on the last Day. That certainly applied as far as Kath was concerned since, on the basis of what was said yesterDay, she was the next suspect in line for both of us (but seemingly not for Mith) after Diamond. With Mith, I am not so sure. She could well be relying on the phantom and I turning on each other this final Day on the basis of the reasoning that I have outlined.

Still, every fibre of my being is currently screaming at the top of its voice: It's the phantom! He's the Wolf! He's taken you for a fool almost the whole game! Lynch him now!

It's taking all the will power I have to resist voting for him right now. Still, even with a retraction available, there is no call for an early vote.

But Mith? Mith has seemed so innocent the entire game. And I just don't see why a MithWolf would risk drawing such attention to herself on Day 1 in voting for Bethberry.

That said, it has certainly served her well for the remainder of the game, being one of the reasons that I, at least, have had her on my "probably innocent" list throughout. And it certainly fits with the pattern of a random and unpredictable Wolf.

Rats! I am rather stumped at present, with very little to go on.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have been back over the entire thread and remain as clueless as before. :rolleyes:

I felt sure that I would be able to spot the Wolf toDay on the basis of the identity of last Night's kill. And then the Wolf went and killed the last person I was expecting to die ...

It could be either of you, and I have no idea which one.

I'm going to have to sleep on it. I'll be back with more thoughts (RL) tomorrow.

[the phantom]

Interesting. The WW passed up a free win by killing Kath. Why?

Anyway.... I'm going to make a case for why you are a WW, SPM. And then I'll make a case for Mith. Keep in mind that these cases were hastily typed and poorly thought out. I don't have time for much else.

SPM=WW

Why am I still alive? Well, it would just be so much more fun for you to win with me around, wouldn't it? I can't blame you.

And killing Kath, well, since I had already promised to vote for her you felt that either I was bluffing and would surely vote for you or you felt that I was serious and did not want to win that way. No, no... you want me either to be lynched or choose incorrectly and add your vote to mine.

Proof that SPM is the final WW is as follows-

On Day 1 he came in with his WWs in competition claim. He seemed to care enough about the game to not only know the rules, but to make further inquiries. And yet, in his very next post he suggests everyone tie each other up at one vote per person and leave it to Fea to flip a coin. He did not know (or acted like he did not know) what the rules actually were in that situation (only the first two would be candidates).

Hmm... very odd. He is completely ignorant of the rules on one issue, and yet has knowledge beyond the rules on another issue. Can you say inconsistent?

But I hear you ask, "Why would Sauce put forth his WWs-in-competition theory if it would cause his fellow WW to gun for him?" Well, that's quite simple. He did it because he had no intention of looking like a WW. Rather clever, don't you think? Suggest that the WWs kill each other in order to look innocent and then if the other WW follows your advice you are safe since you appear innocent, and you are also safe from the village by virtue of the fact that you look innocent.

Nicely done, SPM. That was, without a doubt, a play of phantasmic proportions.

And one thing you said really amused me. On the day we lynched Ang, you said this to incriminate him-
But most of all, he has seemed continually to be testing the water to see whether there might be any prospect of lynching the phantom. Several times during the course of the game, he has indicated that he might consider voting for the phantom (at times jokingly, but this jocular approach might well merely be serving as cover). You see, I think that a Wolfish Anguirel wants to rid himself of his self-confessed nemesis, the phantom, and yet would not stoop so low as to kill him at Night. He wants to see this particular enemy laid low in a fair fight - by getting him lynched.
I think it's so very funny, because this actually applies to you. You've kept me alive this whole time not to kill me in the Night, but to beat me during the Day. You just took your reasons and applied them to Ang. How wickedly lovely.

And I adore the way you've treated me throughout the game. You've voted for me twice, and yet you continually make statements of trust in me. You offset your paranoia and present suspicious facts about me (which makes me guilty) versus your gut (which declares me innocent). It's beautiful, it really is. It reminds me strikingly of WW X and the way that I as a WW treated Kuru. Seriously, read that game. It's identical tactics.

Throughout this game your reactions to what people say and the way you vote has been very innocent in appearance. Fantastically innocent. I've never in my life seen a WW with such perfect innocent reactions. Suberb, I must say. Bravo! Three cheers for SPM, the great WW!

And now that I've proved SPM is a WW, I will prove that Mith is a WW.

First, it would be so like Mith to keep SPM and I around. She wants to take down the big dogs, no doubt about it. There's no way SPM would've left Mith and I alive together. There's too much of a risk that we'd unite against him.

Second, the kills have not been what I would do, and therefore not what SPM would do. We are both creatures of logic, nearly to a fault.

Then look at this gem from Day 1-
Me? Not really in either category - I was spectacularly lucky in my successful wolvish outing. Ayway I'm not a wolf this time so... I maybe the weakest link .. the innocent you could most afford to lose... but I hope it won't be goodbye just yet ... this is befuddling but far from dull and I would like to stay a while....
Mith is trying to look harmless and lost and non-threatening. *WW alarm sounds*

I also find post #94 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497632&postcount=94) interesting. Mith mentions two people... SPM and I. Has she been set on us as the final two for the entire game?

And her vote for Beth. It is quite obviously an attempt to obey the Dark Lady's orders. Those orders- be as random and chaotic as possible.

And comments like these also pinged my radar-
to kill someone that no one could possible ever discount as a wolf without a seer's confirmation is either brave, foolish or eccentric
and I really thought there was a good chance I would be the kill
And also your continual mention of "hmm... I wonder if both WWs are already dead". I don't like the way you say it. Cause obviously a WW would know that it's not true.

Anyway, there you have it. SPM is the WW- no wait, Mith is. Er, SPM actually... um no, Mith.

Anyway, there's no way I'm going to be able to discuss things tomorrow. I have maybe ten minutes tomorrow morning and ten minutes in the afternoon. That's it.

Yeah... the day not starting at the usual time pretty much killed all chances of participation for me.

So, I will probably be posting a ++ in 6 hours.

Then I will immediately do a -- and follow it with another ++. That way you won't be worried about me running in and changing my vote.

As far as who it will be for... perhaps I'll flip a coin. ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

Interesting thoughts, phantom.

Many of the points which you make about me apply equally (from my perspective) to you. And the points which you make against Mith mirror the way that I was thinking about her when I reviewed the thread last (RL) night, down to the very quotes that you have used.

No time to elaborate right now.

However, I do not think that you should vote, retract and vote again when you return. Because, if you are not a Wolf and you get it wrong (ie if you vote irrevocably for me), you will effectively be handing the game to Mith.

By all means cast a vote, but please save your retraction until later in the Day if you possibly can.

[the phantom]

Well, it's time. I'd love to be able to actually talk a bit and put forth a real effort, but this five minutes is the only chance I have to post today.

And so, without further delay...

++SPM

--SPM

++Mith
but please save your retraction until later in the Day if you possibly can
I won't be able to be here later today.

The game is now yours to win, SPM.

[The Saucepan Man]

Aaargh! We crossed.

But at least you mande the right choice. :)

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, looking more carefully, I see that you did read my post before doing that.

You know, this makes you look incredibly innocent, phantom. I cannot see a Wolf taking such a risk, but rather think the Wolf would wish to save his or her vote until the last possible moment. But maybe that's what you want me to think.

The game is now yours to win, SPM.

Actually, the choice is now mine to win or lose the game. I only hope that, for the sake of the village, I make the right choice ...

Back later.

[Mithalwen]

Phantom, my dear, if you are innocent, you have just lost us the game..... ironically I was leaning to the pan man beint the guilty one but my choice is now immaterial it seems... just a question of being lynched or devoured.

Well played Sauce...

[Mithalwen]

Because you can negate a vote of mine to force a tie......

Of course if you are innocent we could gang up on TP ...but youaren't are you....

Been far to confident about my innocence like Ang before... only myself, Fea and a wolf could be certain. Yes it would require more restrain and forethought than characteristic to pull off the bravura performance necessary but only the wolf could know that it was impossible...

*sighs*

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, there is little sense in me making out a case for the phantom being the Wolf, as he will seemingly not be returning to respond. Suffice to say that there is sufficient evidence to view him as a possible Wolf, but at the same time I somehow get the impression that he is innocent. That said, I can see myself voting for him, if only to avoid the humiliation of having been outwitted by him. :rolleyes:

Since Mith is likely to be here later toDay, I will set out my thinking on her in order that she has an opportunity to respond before I cast my vote.

Day 1

This really is a bit of a Donald Rumsfeld farewell game ... known unknowns and no doubt many unknown unknowns.... so stabbing in the dark may be order of the day.... Reinforces the random nature of the game and could have been calculated to induce a sense of pessimism within the village. A pessimistic village, it seems to me better serves a Wolf, rather than the village itself.

Me? Not really in either category - I was spectacularly lucky in my successful wolvish outing. Ayway I'm not a wolf this time so... I maybe the weakest link .. the innocent you could most afford to lose... but I hope it won't be goodbye just yet ... this is befuddling but far from dull and I would like to stay a while......Could be an early and subtle attempt to throw us off the scent by playing herself down as a danger.

I am inclined to think that the Pan Man is innocent because it makes more sense ... it would be a bit risky and attention seeking for so early in the discussion. But while I am good at spotting a cobblerish Pan Man I find it hard to read him when he plays a less ambiguous role .... but I could vote for him to maintain the tradition if you so wish .. but I don't think it would be a great choice ...

The phantom is not a priority either ... he is being quite constructive... and tooo obvious.... but he and Fea have such a convoluted history .... argh .... make me the village contortionist I am getting into knots...As the phantom noted, this post is interesting, given that it is the two of us who are left with her at the end.

I can't resist but though it be madness there is a little method in it... I do have to go now. I feel a vote for any of my other random suspects might be too significant at this early stage. I feel votes are going to be very spread out and two or three might be enough to seal someone's fate.... on this most random of first days I shall be completely random .... and risk the consequences if my fellow villagers think I am copping out... which is a valid perspective but heigh ho....Seeks to explain her “random” vote for Bêthberry in reasonable terms, possibly aware that it is a relatively high-risk strategy for a Wolf to draw such attention to herself on Day 1.

Day 2

Fea's narration does suggest Morm was a wolf but better to assume we have two to find....Introducing uncertainty as to the number of Wolves left - suits a Wolf more than it suits the village.

My vote for BB was half punt in response to the unknown situation ... ...half course of action least likely to cause harm....... had I been a wolf I would erred on the side of not being so attention seeking.. and not giving the rest of you an easy excuse to lynch me in absentia.Staunch defence of her vote for Bêthberry - suits a Wolf to seek to establish as early as possible that it was not the likely vote of a Wolf.

No, it is what I expected after mormegil's role was not specified... Fea was unlikely ot waive the divine right of moderators . We are her Lab rats and she will want as much amusement as possible. She has waited a long time for this and was so certain on who she wanted ... she has a purpose ...... whether there is any system or code that will allow us to understand or whether we are dependant simply on luck I am not sure.

Personally I am going to roll with it....and see what happens....Again, emphasising the randomness of the game might be seen as suiting a Wolf better than an innocent.

Oh yes... I wonder if there is any point in us speculating why each of us was chosen? I assume I was to be a loose cannon ... which is not something I am actively trying to be but is often a by-product of my personality ....Would fit the idea we have of what Fea intended for this game – a “loose canon” Wolf. :D

Yes that is one of the things that annoys me ..I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting ... but what do I know ... having announced me strange for my vote and then dismissed as being too random to be a threat to the wolves ...Might this be Wolfish discomfort at the attempts of the phantom and I to explore the possibility of forming an uneasy alliance?

Chaos is my natural environment, so I think this game disconcerts me less sinceI knew it would be a magical mystery tour from the beginning. RL is so crazy this seems quite relaxing (and I must vote soonish for the ancient parent is still housebound and zimmer-framed and has been alone all day..). The fact this is so bizarre and that I am objectively probably the weakest player mean I have nothing to prove, no particular responsibility..it is quite liberating.. but I am fairly clueless... Again emphasising the random nature of the game (her natural environment, she says), and the self-deprecating comments are again possibly calculated to make us feel more comfortable about her - to portray herself as little threat.

I will throw in my lot with my liege lord in another place...A very quick vote for Eomer on the basis of Ang’s “trap”, putting him on 2 votes, tied with Diamond. Not really a lot in this, given that it was only the 2nd vote, but the haste with which she jumped on Ang’s reasoning might be seen as alarming.

Day 3

However it depends how genuinely random the second wolf was ... and we can't be certain that Eomer whetehr Eomer was "chosen" or "random". As a mod, it is tempting to restart the random selection if the balance looks wrong. However with no gifteds and a high calibre group of players it is less likely to be tempted to tinker than if you draw very experienced gifted versus a team of wolves who are novice, notoriously absent, isolated by timezone, or vice versa An attempt to muddy the waters?

Day 4

Blimey .. that is a surprise ......... to kill someone that no one could possible ever discount as a wolf without a seer's confirmation is either brave, foolish or eccentric ..... Is Mith brave, foolish or eccentric? I’ll say no more on that, save to note that it might suit a Wolfish Mith openly to describe the Wolf in terms that either are not traditionally associated with her or which it might be considered impolite to apply to her. Also, of the three of us left, Mith is the most likely to express surprise at her own choice of kill.

There is that other outside possibility that Morm was a wolf and Fea is messing with our heads by picking off unlikely folk at night..More water muddying?

I think it was you who said something about my Bethberry vote being safe looking back ... well hindsight is great isn't it? But anyone who has played a few games of werewolf knows how people can get lynched for very little on day one.

Voting for Bethberry would not have been be a good choice for a wolf because:

a, far too attention seeking and conspicuous.

b, there was a possibility that others might have joined me "in a let's see what happens" approach..... now as has been pointed out, wolfs as lone operators are nearer their goal if anyone else gets lynched. The risk of "wasting" a kill on Bethberry would to my mind rile the wolves more than innocents. A couple of people were anti my punt I must look back and see who they were.

Paranoia does seem to be taking root... heigho...More justification for her Bêthberry vote – she has consistently relied on this defence on the few occasions that suspicions have been raised against her. Also, perhaps suggesting that anyone who might consider her a suspect is being paranoid.

Day 5

I wonder if the wolf has factored that in to his kill choices... also knowing that I cannot possibly be around to so long becasu eI must vote early and inconclusively... The reference to Thanksgiving Day was plain confusing (to me at least). More muddying of the waters? Also possibly looking for sympathy on the basis of her enforced vote timing?

I think you, Sauce, said something about Di wanting ot tie up the vote at the end, and it did make me wonder if it suited the wolf to have fewer people around at the end of the day (hence mainly US side night kills) and possibly to keep someone who would have to vote early always.. who couldn't retract ..

To be honest this theory is based partly on successful wolf game when on the last day I just had to wait for one innocent to get a vote and it was game over.
The rules were rather different - can't retract, in event of a tie first to the tied number of votes dies... but I just thought it worth mentioning as a possibility...Interesting that she was already thinking about how the final Day might go. I didn’t really think about that until toDay. But emphasising the tactical issues surrounding her voting time might be seen as a bad move for a Wolf in her position (ie generally required to vote early on).

I can only repeat that I may be a bit crazy but I am an accountant, however (to use a Pratchettism) "bursar" I had gone, as a wolf, I would not have risked wasting a kill for fun. That would not be prudent.....

However if you lynch me it would force the wolf to kill someone else tonight which might be more helpful than my death.Yet again relying on that Bêthberry vote. And playing a bit for sympathy. As if to say: “Go on, lynch me if you must. I’m innocent, but you can afford to do without me”. A tactic that has been used by Wolves in the past. Also, seems a bit over the top, as she was in little danger of being lynched at the time.

I have to go soon and I think I am going to vote for Diamond.

Kath has pulled the wool over my eyes before and I will kick myself if she is tha wolf but I think she has been a bit too disengaged to be a wolf. If she is a wolf her lack of involvement would be a dampener.

Phantom and PanMan ..I have been suspectiong you alternately and can't decide....

Diamond..... also quiet but manipulative. Could be classic flying under radar wolf.

Have an inkling she would have been keener than most to get Roa out of the way...

Comments ..or are you boys going to lynch me?A possible “testing the water” post? The phantom had already indicated he was leaning towards voting for Diamond, so it would make sense for a Wolfish Mith to test alternative possibilities, while suggesting that she was most likely to vote for her.

If you're the WW all you have to do is get Di lynched today and leave Kath and I alive for tomorrow, for I will be voting for her.Did Mith deliberately not follow this suggestion because it might point too obviously to her?

Conclusions

1. Mith has consistently relied upon the Bêthberry vote as the key indicator of her innocence. It could well be that she took a calculated risk on Day 1 in order to provide herself with this defence for the remainder of the game. It has certainly served her well up to now.

2. On a number of occasions, Mith has sought to play herself down as a danger, portraying herself as “the weakest linkest”, a “loose canon”, the "weakest player" and the villager that the village can best afford to lose. I can’t help but think that these sort of comments have contributed towards her being somewhat overlooked as a possible Wolf. Whereas, contrary to the impression that she has sought to give, Mith is an extremely capable player and a most dangerous adversary.

3. Although I have not posted the occasions when Mith has provided seemingly helpful analysis, many of her stated thoughts do seem to be directed towards emphasising the random and unpredictable nature of this game, possibly to reinforce any pessimism that we might have had over the chances of catching a Wolf. Similarly, much of her analysis might be seen as muddying the waters, obfuscating rather than clarifying. Obviously, heightened confusion best serves the Wolfish interests.

4. Mith has played in a manner consistent with Fea’s plans – random and unpredictable. She also (unlike the phantom) might be seen as having provided a good counterbalance to Eomer of the Wolfirrim.

Mith, although this post has focused almost exclusively on you, I should make clear that my mind is far from made up. It’s just that I have been concentrating on the phantom for much of the game, and have somewhat overlooked you so far.

I shall not be voting until much later in the Day. I would welcome the opportunity to consider your thoughts on the phantom.

Btw – I think that it’s pretty clear by now that I am innocent. Were I the Wolf, I would not be expending such effort on trying to ensure that I make the right choice. Rather, I would by now have taken the game by simply following up the phantom’s final vote with a vote for you, Mith. If you vote for me, it would not, were I the Wolf, save you, but it would seal the phantom’s victory, if he is the Wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Of course if you are innocent we could gang up on TP ...but youaren't are you....Actually, I am innocent, as I hope is clear by now (although you might well have known that before).

[Mithalwen]

OK .. well the simply fact is I am innocent, and there is no danger of you having to fulfil your pledge of gift wrapping.

What I have said has been honest .. not playing for sympathy. I regard it as a simple statemen of fact that I am one of the weakest players. But having had lunch I realise that since a vote for you is pointless, the only hope is that I am wrong about you and to vote phantom.

Certainly I wonder if you would bother to write such a long post if you knew the victory was in the bag as I assumed.

[The Saucepan Man]

... there is no danger of you having to fulfil your pledge of gift wrapping.Yes, I was mindful of that. However, should I determine you to be our lupine tormentor, I shall see you lynched ere I fulfill that pledge. I never said that I would feed myself to you while you yet lived. :p

What to make of Mith's stated assumption as to my guilt and impending victory, following the phantom's vote? Surely, her best plan as a Wolf would be to try her best to persuade me to vote for the phantom. Or would that be too obvious? More subtle, I suppose to persuade me of her own innocence by pretending to be misguided in thinking me to be the final Wolf.

I can't help feeling that I'm over-thinking this ...

I could really do with some relatively trustworthy opions here, but alas there is little prospect of that.

This is horrible!

At least if you were to vote for me, Mith, it would take the decision out of my hands. But then, you would only do that if you were innocent, and it would therefore hand the game to the phantom

Indeed, to avoid the prospect of that happening, I am going to vote now as a security measure. If there is to be a coin flip at the end of the Day, I would prefer that it be between the phantom and Mith, rather than between Mith and I.

++the phantom

That vote is not cast in stone by any means. Then again, perhaps it would be fitting, in the context of this game, to leave it at that and allow lady luck to determine the winner. It would, at least, take the onerous decision away from me. :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

Yes it would require more restrain and forethought than characteristic to pull off the bravura performance ...This is true. If you are the Wolf, you have played a blinder and I am tempted to accede to your victory in recognition of that.

If the phantom is the Wolf, he too has played a stunningly good game. However, it will have relied primarily on gaining my trust and keeping me alive. And I am not sure that I am happy about having been used in that way.

I am therefore more tempted to risk a MithWolf victory than a phantom Wolf victory.

Another thing. The phantom feels innocent to me. And I can't help but think that the phantom is at his most dangerous when he is coming across as innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

You know, I can’t help but feel that I have been manipulated by the Wolf into this unenviable position. Both Mith and the phantom have done things which might be interpreted as having brought this situation about, by not voting for me and (whichever one is the Wolf) by not killing me at Night. But the phantom perhaps moreso. He has, throughout, given the impression that he is inclined to trust me, more often than not included me on his list of people for whom he would not be voting, and has generally seemed quite eager that I trust him. He was also, effectively, the one who brought about the precise situation in which I now find myself, with his early vote, retraction and re-vote.

If anyone has been manipulating me, then the phantom’s actions are the more incriminating.

But what about motive? Why me? There was much mention of grudges earlier in the game. The phantom has little reason to hold any grudge against me. I have never foiled any of his lupine ambitions, and he did not play in the two games where I was on the victorious evil team. Mithalwen has said that she bears no grudges, but the Goose/Seer incident in Diamond’s Duck game might present a motive for a pay-back attempt.

Then again, I seem to have acquired this reputation as an able Werewolf player (wrongly in my view, as an innocent at least), and perhaps the phantom was keen to test his wits against mine. Mind you, the same might be said of Mith.

Can you see where I’m going with this?

Yup. Round and round in circles. :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

Just pondering the phantom's comments about the way he has played this game and how he would never have acted as the Wolf has in this game, nor made the choices of Nightly victims made by this Wolf.

This seems to me to be a reasonable point well made. Yet, I can well imagine a Wolfish phantom, in this particular game (being one of Fea's obvious choices for Wolf), adopting a completely novel approach, in order to throw a village full of people he has played with before and who know his ways off his trail. Indeed, it would seem a good strategy to do so, and then use it, as he has, in an effort to establish his innocence.

The question is whether the phantom would do such a thing.

And why am I babbling on to myself when there is no one here to talk to? I suppose that I am mainly looking to justify myself in the event that I have to face the spectres of my fellow innocent villagers having made the wrong decision ... :rolleyes:

[Mithalwen]

Well Sauce, you have put a spin on my actions, but I am innocent.

Apart from anything else you must know that you wind me up more than anyone else in this game and I certainly would have killed you long ago were I the wolf.

And I am innocent so the only possible option is to hope that you are too and vote Phantom. Since if you are the wolf you have already won and you shouldn't be talking to yourself. ...

Only other option is Fea is having hysterics and we are all innocent.

Will be back in a couple of hours.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apart from anything else you must know that you wind me up more than anyone else in this game and I certainly would have killed you long ago were I the wolf. Aw, shucks! You're just saying that to be kind ... ;)

Still, perhaps it provides a motive for wanting to put me in this miserable position and then finish me off when all the lynchings are done ...

Only other option is Fea is having hysterics and we are all innocent.The thought had occurred. In which case, if nothing else, I have at least provided our Dark Lady with some amusement toDay and may be due some reward from her.

Which reminds me. She did ask that we kill the phantom ...

I'm getting to the stage where I am starting to think about tossing a coin myself. Either one of you really could be the Wolf as far as I am concerned. Good logical arguments can be made either way. And gut feel ain't giving me much help neither. :(

Perhaps I should just go for the tie and leave it to blind chance. There's probably just about the same chance of killing the wolf as if I were to make the choice myself.

Or perhaps I should go with my idea of saving whichever one of you I think has, if a Wolf, played the better game.

But even that is a difficult choice ...

Oh me. Oh my. :rolleyes:

[the phantom]

Yay. I got off work early and have an extra 10-15 minutes before I have to run off to my next obligation.

Of course, it does me little good seeing as my vote is gone and I don't have time to debate.

All I can say is this- the both of you are doing an amazing job at sounding/acting convincingly innocent. There are three things that could be happening.
1) Mith is the WW and she is doing a great job of swaying SPM to vote for me rather than her.
2) SPM is the WW and he is not content to follow my vote for Mith, but instead wants to lynch me for the thrill of it, or better yet to leave it to a random coin flip which of us dies (Mith or I) in order to win in the true spirit of this game. To be honest, if I was the WW that is precisely what I would do. I would not just tack my vote on to someone else. I'd try to get both people to vote wrong. It would be the ultimate victory.
3) We're all innocent and Fea is laughing her head off.
Just pondering the phantom's comments about the way he has played this game and how he would never have acted as the Wolf has in this game, nor made the choices of Nightly victims made by this Wolf.

This seems to me to be a reasonable point well made. Yet, I can well imagine a Wolfish phantom, in this particular game (being one of Fea's obvious choices for Wolf), adopting a completely novel approach, in order to throw a village full of people he has played with before and who know his ways off his trail.
For an answer to this, you simply must think of what sort of person I am.

Would the phantom be content to win not playing as the phantom?

Just answer that question and you will know if I am innocent or WW.

I've already said what I am, of course. You just need to decide if you trust it.
He has, throughout, given the impression that he is inclined to trust me, more often than not included me on his list of people for whom he would not be voting, and has generally seemed quite eager that I trust him.
When I was the Seer in WW IX who is the first person I dreamed of? You.

You may think of us as rivals, SPM, but if we are, I certainly wouldn't categorize us as "bitter rivals". Those sorts are always out for blood. I am not, and I don't think you are either. We like the prospect of trusting each other, for it means we can each trust the words of the other. The simple fact is, whether I am innocent, WW, or gifted, I like to know where you stand. And if you are innocent or at least acting very innocent, I am willing to go out on a limb and take a bit of a risk to trust you.

Particularly in this village. I figured that simple odds were that you weren't a WW, so I figured early on "What the heck- I'll try my best to trust SPM. Might as well."

So there's your explanation. But naturally if you are the WW that is completely meaningless, and you're going to continue to keep me under the gun and hope that Mith will vote for me thus sealing your triumph over your "rival".

(for those of you watching this final day as it unfolds, you can be certain of this- if SPM leaves it to chance or votes to kill me, he is most definitely the WW, I know for a fact that an innocent SPM would not vote for me, his gut and head would not lead him astray)

[the phantom]

Bye bye, now.

Fea, m'dear- if I die via lynch make my death sad and tragic. If I survive the lynch and WW SPM kills me, make sure I congratulate him before I bite the bullet.

[Mithalwen]

Sauce..... I was going to honour your list of quotes with a rebuttal but I am not sure I can summon the energy since when all is said and done I am faced with a no brainer.

Voting for you would be a certain death sentence. Either you are the wolf in which case you can simply vote for me, get me lynched and devour the phantom. Or you are innocent in which case you can still get me lynched and be devoured by the phantom.

If I vote for the phantom and you are the wolf you just pick which of us you lynch, which you devour ... a question of menu....

However there is that possibility that you are another innocent and if I vote for the phantom and you maintain your vote for the phantom and we fulfil Fea's request to lynch TP there is a chance we both survive this... however Fea did say this is going on til there is only one...

It is a chance against a certainty so :

++The Phantom

[Mithalwen]

NB Typical.. cross posted with Phantom

[Mithalwen]

OK Looks as if I should bother to make my riposte after all... in the mean time bear in mind that there are very good reasons why I play neither chess nor poker...

I know I am not utterly stupid but I am no strategist. I am a pragmatist not a theoretician.

Do you not think in many ways I would love to be the wolf here, and prove everyone wrong? That I could be a successful wolf in a game played by such players - rather than just in a junior game heavy with novices and people I had never played with before? And this crazy game would suit me better than one where logic and pesky gifted could get in the way..... but that glory (and the giftwrapped Espiem segments are not to be mine ...that gruesome notion might just turn me vegan..)

I actually strongly suspect that we may be all innocent but there is not a lot I can do about that. I know we have to lynch someone. I know if I am lynched that is an innocent dead ..... You cannot be lynched.... so...

Now I am talking to myself and not started on defending myself against your charges..

[The Saucepan Man]

(for those of you watching this final day as it unfolds, you can be certain of this- if SPM leaves it to chance or votes to kill me, he is most definitely the WW, I know for a fact that an innocent SPM would not vote for me, his gut and head would not lead him astray)Phantom, with that comment, you may just have lost yourself the game, or you may just have lost all of us the game, except Mithalwen (and possibly Eomer).

It is so Wolfish.

By the way, I am not sure why you are persisting in trying to paint me as a possible Wolf. After the events of toDay, I am so obviously not. Merely a confused innocent, trying to do his best to kill the final Wolf.

Hmm, why would you do that? Surely only if you were innocent and did not know the answer? Unless that's what you want me to think ...

Ai!

I should make a decision. No sense in dragging this out further.

Problem is, I can't. :(

[The Saucepan Man]

Now I am talking to myself and not started on defending myself against your charges..I will wait.

But I am afraid that now I will not be back until much later.

And if, perchance, I should fall asleep before I have the opportunity to return (which is a distinct possibility, as I was both here and painfully wathcing the cricket until the wee small hours last night/this morning), the phantom shall be lynched.

But I hope to return.

[The Saucepan Man]

A parting thought for me to ponder upon.

For an answer to this, you simply must think of what sort of person I am.

Would the phantom be content to win not playing as the phantom?Yes. I think that you could justify it in a game as strange as this one.

I also have to think what sort of person Mithalwen is. And, from what I know of her, this is very true:

I know I am not utterly stupid but I am no strategist. I am a pragmatist not a theoretician.It would represent Werewolf playing par excellence for Mithalwen, as a Wolf, to have played the way she has. And so, if she is the Wolf, I tend towards the view that she deserves to win.

But I'll be back later (hopefully) when I have made my decision.

[Mithalwen]

Day 1
Quote:This really is a bit of a Donald Rumsfeld farewell game ... known unknowns and no doubt many unknown unknowns.... so stabbing in the dark may be order of the day.... Reinforces the random nature of the game and could have been calculated to induce a sense of pessimism within the village. A pessimistic village, it seems to me better serves a Wolf, rather than the village itself. –
No this was a simple statement of the situation on day 1 not reinforcing anything.. And I was referring to the day one choice in particular.
I had no theory to offer so stuck to fact as contribution……

Not really in either category - I was spectacularly lucky in my successful wolvish outing. Ayway I'm not a wolf this time so... I maybe the weakest link .. the innocent you could most afford to lose... but I hope it won't be goodbye just yet ... this is befuddling but far from dull and I would like to stay a while......
Again simple fact – I am not blind to my own faults ..and since in Werewolf someone is bound ot point them out..may as well get in first …. It has been a blast… I played basically because I owed Fea a favour but I have enjoyed it ….


I am inclined to think that the Pan Man is innocent because it makes more sense ... it would be a bit risky and attention seeking for so early in the discussion. But while I am good at spotting a cobblerish Pan Man I find it hard to read him when he plays a less ambiguous role .... but I could vote for him to maintain the tradition if you so wish .. but I don't think it would be a great choice ...

The phantom is not a priority either ... he is being quite constructive... and tooo obvious
As the phantom noted, this post is interesting, given that it is the two of us who are left with her at the end.
I kept changing my mind …. No change there…. Really believed whoever I read last …

Quote:
SI can't resist but though it be madness there is a little method in it... I do have to go now. I feel a vote for any of my other random suspects might be too significant at this early stage. I feel votes are going to be very spread out and two or three might be enough to seal someone's fate.... on this most random of first days I shall be completely random .... and risk the consequences if my fellow villagers think I am copping out... which is a valid perspective but heigh ho.... Seeks to explain her “random” vote for Bêthberry in reasonable terms, possibly aware that it is a relatively high-risk strategy for a Wolf to draw such attention to herself on Day 1.
Well yes but in the last games I played innocents and gifteds were lynched for the slightest things. Given that we knew nothing, and people often look fo ran excuse to vote on day one… it was high risk for anyone to give ammunition. And I could not know that noone else would follow my quixotic lead. Lynching BB wouldnot have helped a wolvish Mith.

Day 2
Quote:
Fea's narration does suggest Morm was a wolf but better to assume we have two to find....
.Introducing uncertainty as to the number of Wolves left - suits a Wolf more than it suits the village i did not introduce the uncertainty I merely commented on it. I don’t know how reminding people of possibilities is wolf-friendly. I seem to remember noone taking the 2 owls option seriously either …….


Quote:



My vote for BB was half punt in response to the unknown situation ... ...half course of action least likely to cause harm....... had I been a wolf I would erred on the side of not being so attention seeking.. and not giving the rest of you an easy excuse to lynch me in absentia.
Staunch defence of her vote for Bêthberry - suits a Wolf to seek to establish as early as possible that it was not the likely vote of a Wolf.

Also suits an innocent to point out innocence….

Quote:
No, it is what I expected after mormegil's role was not specified... Fea was unlikely ot waive the divine right of moderators . We are her Lab rats and she will want as much amusement as possible. She has waited a long time for this and was so certain on who she wanted ... she has a purpose ...... whether there is any system or code that will allow us to understand or whether we are dependant simply on luck I am not sure.

Personally I am going to roll with it....and see what happens....
Again, emphasising the randomness of the game might be seen as suiting a Wolf better than an innocent.
Or might be seen as an fatalistic innocent saying che sera sera and letting herself off too much note taking…..

Oh yes... I wonder if there is any point in us speculating why each of us was chosen? I assume I was to be a loose cannon ... which is not something I am actively trying to be but is often a by-product of my personality ....
Would fit the idea we have of what Fea intended for this game – a “loose canon” Wolf.

Whatever else I am I am not an immoral religious……;)

Again ..statement of fact … is it so hard for lawyers to believe anyone honest ….?

Quote:
Yes that is one of the things that annoys me ..I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting ... but what do I know ... having announced me strange for my vote and then dismissed as being too random to be a threat to the wolves ... Quote: Might this be Wolfish discomfort at the attempts of the phantom and I to explore the possibility of forming an uneasy alliance?No I was genuinely narked at being patronised - given that family nicknames included “plank” and “bimbo” and having been the youngest for the best part of a couple of decades ..being told to run along and play while the grown ups talk seriously, is liable to rankle…..

Quote:
I will throw in my lot with my liege lord in another place... A very quick vote for Eomer on the basis of Ang’s “trap”, putting him on 2 votes, tied with Diamond. Not really a lot in this, given that it was only the 2nd vote, but the haste with which she jumped on Ang’s reasoning might be seen as alarming.

I had to go and I decided to trust Ang - the man had a plan and he was the most amusing player to me at least. This may break phantom’s heart but Ang is probably the closest friend among the players remaining at the time and I decided I would go with him and take the consequences …

Day 3
Quote:
However it depends how genuinely random the second wolf was ... and we can't be certain that Eomer whetehr Eomer was "chosen" or "random". As a mod, it is tempting to restart the random selection if the balance looks wrong. However with no gifteds and a high calibre group of players it is less likely to be tempted to tinker than if you draw very experienced gifted versus a team of wolves who are novice, notoriously absent, isolated by timezone, or vice versa
An attempt to muddy the waters?
Nope speculation based on experience …..
Day 4
Quote:
IsBlimey .. that is a surprise ......... to kill someone that no one could possible ever discount as a wolf without a seer's confirmation is either brave, foolish or eccentric ..... Mith brave, foolish or eccentric? I’ll say no more on that, save to note that it might suit a Wolfish Mith openly to describe the Wolf in terms that either are not traditionally associated with her or which it might be considered impolite to apply to her. Also, of the three of us left, Mith is the most likely to express surprise at her own choice of kill.

Not sure how to take this? I make no secret of my eccentricity or folly but while I am not brave I hope I do not lack moral courage at least….

And I certainly would not have killed Roa, at least not then. I would have tried to get her lynched. Incidentally morms death would have been the most incriminating had I been a wolf. He always knows instantly my status so I would have wanted him gone ASAP….

Quote:
There is that other outside possibility that Morm was a wolf and Fea is messing with our heads by picking off unlikely folk at night..
– I still suspect this to be my Cassandra moment…

Quote:
I think it was you who said something about my Bethberry vote being safe looking back ... well hindsight is great isn't it? But anyone who has played a few games of werewolf knows how people can get lynched for very little on day one.

Voting for Bethberry would not have been be a good choice for a wolf because:

a, far too attention seeking and conspicuous.

b, there was a possibility that others might have joined me "in a let's see what happens" approach..... now as has been pointed out, wolfs as lone operators are nearer their goal if anyone else gets lynched. The risk of "wasting" a kill on Bethberry would to my mind rile the wolves more than innocents. A couple of people were anti my punt I must look back and see who they were.

Paranoia does seem to be taking root... heigho... More justification for her Bêthberry vote – she has consistently relied on this defence on the few occasions that suspicions have been raised against her. Also, perhaps suggesting that anyone who might consider her a suspect is being paranoid.

This was in the context of Nogrod changing his mind about my vote proving my innocence. I was putting it back in context. Nogrod is a friend and my polar opposite in thought process … but his intellectual rigour doesn’t always result in the correct conclusions.

Day 5
Argh all this was just tossing balls int eh air … trying to find some pattern, reasoning. Phantom had pointed out the fact all kills were on that side of the Atlantic. I am not a strategist but the kills wer our only clue ..why not look at all options. Not asking for sympathy – more pragmatism. I knew I was innocent and looked it and was so more likely to be a night kill than a lynch victim… I thought it might spike the wolf’s gun and mean the wolf had tochoose someone more suspicious and there fore more revealing to kill. Just pragmatism…. A chance I might be more use dead than alive … such cynicism in the face of the offer of self sacrifice in the common good
Quote:
I have to go soon and I think I am going to vote for Diamond.

Kath has pulled the wool over my eyes before and I will kick myself if she is tha wolf but I think she has been a bit too disengaged to be a wolf. If she is a wolf her lack of involvement would be a dampener.

Phantom and PanMan ..I have been suspectiong you alternately and can't decide....

Diamond..... also quiet but manipulative. Could be classic flying under radar wolf.

Have an inkling she would have been keener than most to get Roa out of the way...

Comments ..or are you boys going to lynch me? A possible “testing the water” post? The phantom had already indicated he was leaning towards voting for Diamond, so it would make sense for a Wolfish Mith to test alternative possibilities, while suggesting that she was most likely to vote for her.Justthinking aloud….

Originally Posted by the phantom
If you're the WW all you have to do is get Di lynched today and leave Kath and I alive for tomorrow, for I will be voting for her.Did Mith deliberately not follow this suggestion because it might point too obviously to her?

No she didn’t follow it because she wasn’t the wolf…

Conclusions

Mithalwen has looked innocent because she is innocent. She made and honest appraisal of her abilities – to use an analogy you will sure you understand - I was saying that I am in the relegation zone of the Premier League ..not that I belonged in the Vauxhall Conference ….. It is flattering to be thought capable of being at this point as a wolf but it isn’t realistic. It just isn’t my style.

As for the Phantom, suspending the “we are all innocent theory” , he has been very “knowing”, confident….. announcing Morm’s innocence, Noggie’s death and so forth…..

I find that level of certainty disturbing in a game where we have been deliberately left in the dark.

[The Saucepan Man]

I had forgotten that this Day started early, and so thought that I still had some time left.

Still, the last Night was extended, so why not the last Day?

In any event, I have made my decision and I'll stick with it.

--the phantom
++the phantom

Sorry, phantom, if you are not the Wolf. But I just couldn't hold off that voice in my head any longer.

You look the most Wolfish to me.

And Fea wanted us to kill you.

Immense kudos to Mithalwen if I am wrong, and I'll start sharpening the carving knife ...

*Skulks off to wait in trepidation*

[the phantom]

I'm the WW, SPM?

Yeah right. If I was the WW you'd already be dead and I wouldn't have a vote this last day.

You know it.

Mith, vote for The Saucepan Man.

I haven't voted yet today, you see. My votes were "++SPM" and "++Mith". Those aren't valid votes. ;)

The directions say to vote for "++Player Name", and Fea clearly lists who the players are. There is not a player named "SPM" or "Mith".

There are players named "The Saucepan Man" and "Mithalwen".

And the fact that Fea has been letting this go doesn't matter. The reason she's been letting it go is because no one's said anything. But I am invoking this rule.

I have not voted yet.

++The Saucepan Man

Simply because you voted for me. You should know better.

[the phantom]

PS I can't believe the Day is still going. It's been 24 hours since it started. I guess we're going to our usual cut off time then. That's cool with me, seeing as I actually got a chance to post again.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

PS I can't believe the Day is still going. It's been 24 hours since it started. I guess we're going to our usual cut off time then. That's cool with me, seeing as I actually got a chance to post again.
I thought I told you I had to work tonight... Can't end a day when you're flirting with the barten-- I mean working.

We'll call it officially done at 10:00.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Even as he watched his companions turn against, him, he stood nonchalantly, with both flair and confidence, and until the end, he could not be certain, but he seemed that way.

How he had lived so long in a village of such turmoil he had no idea, but he had prepared for the worst. He would never let them kill him. His death would be his own.

And even as he spoke lightly with the men, and freshly with the women, he often fingered the vial in his pocket, and he knew, as he had always known, it would come to this.

And so when it was a certainty, he did not shiver. He showed no fear, for he was not afraid. He bowed to the man, and spoke.

"Thou art a fool. It needn't have ended thusly, but it has. And you may believe that you have ended me... but you have not." And from his cloak he drew the vial, and the woman's eyes grew, and the man cried out, and he swallowed its contents and threw the vial to the ground, and it shattered, perfectly, beautifully, and he swallowed again, and his throat burned fire within him, and he was hot.

And from the shadows stepped forth a figure, and he bowed, weakening, and winked, still roguishly. In the dark of the night, many nights ago, he had made only one request to the moon, and as he spoke, his voice had been carried across miles. One wish, only one, and one so simple. And she had heard, and she had spoken back, and he had heard, and he had wondered, and now he knew. The man and woman watched in horror as the Dark Lady walked now amongst them, for while they had been strong, she had been weak, relying on moonlight and minions, and she had ne'er left her Tower. But at the end, and the final goodnight, as the sun set upon them, and shadows lengthened, and poison coursed, and all was done, she came to them, and in the breeze, her cloak shivered, and in the moonlight, her hair was lightless, and in her eyes, they saw death.

And the woman asked her what it had been she had said, for she had heard a voice on the wind saying she had Seen something, though Seer she had never been. And the Dark Lady whispered, and her voice was that of jewels and ice, and frozen firelight: "You shall see. Do not doubt that you shall see."

And the man looked between his companions, and saw the woman, her eyes questioning, nearly certain she knew, and he saw the other man, beginning, it seemed, to die, and he saw the Dark Lady, and he was unsure, and he asked her only one question: "Is this the end?"

And she said yes.

And she stepped toward the dying man, and cupped a cool white hand along his jaw, and she looked into his eyes, and he saw nothing, and he smiled.

And he choked, and clutched at his stomach, now burning, and he was in agony, though he barely showed it, and he sank to his knees, and she followed, kneeling with him, and gently, softly, almost kindly, she granted him his only request. As she stood again, and stepped away, he whispered, and the man and woman barely heard, "O true apothecary, thy drugs are quick. Thus with a kiss I die."

And the woman asked, "What now, Lady of the Night?"

And she replied, "Now it ends. You have danced my dance, and you have danced it prettily, but you must have known..."

The woman bowed her head in acquiescence. She had known, though she had hoped otherwise.

"Who?" she asked.

The Dark Lady allowed her cloak to fall, and beneath it she wore a black gown, corsetted in ebony, laced with silver silk, and she carried silver blades. And in a second, a mere second, the blades whistled in the night, and two lives ended, and as the Dark Lady watched her own blood pool around her, she answered the woman, and looked up at the man, the only villager left standing, though he stood in shock. "You."