Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The Players:

Anguirel
Boromir88
Diamond18
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
littlemanpoet
Mithalwen
mormegil
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

The Rules:

Days and Nights will last 24 hours each, with periods beginning and ending at approximately 10:00 PM (EST; GMT-5). Game-related PMs, e-mails, IMs, etc. - except to the moderator - are strictly banned during any part of the game. This includes wolf-to-wolf communication. Ghosts may communicate with each other, of course, but do remember that the Dead may not contact the Living.

There are 13 players. Two are wolves. They are unaware of each other's identities. There are no Gifted villagers.

During the Day period, villagers will publicly communicate suspicions, posit theories, test ideas, and behave in whatever fashion seems best to them. There is no minimum post requirement. However there will be no moderatorial intervention should the villagers choose to lynch a fellow player for quietness. Votes are semi-retractable: they may be revoked only once during each Day period. The second vote is final. All votes should be posted as

++PLAYER NAME

or

--PLAYER NAME.

Edits are strictly forbidden; any edits will result in immediate and unceremonious death: no narration, no warning. No edits. Double, triple, or quadruple post if you feel the need, but resist the urge to edit, even for spelling. All votes must be cast before the given deadline. Any posted after will be ignored by the moderator during tallying; the moderator will specify if a vote has not been counted among others. Do not delete posts. There will be no double-lynching; if a tie occurs, a decision will be made by the moderator with the flip of a coin: heads represents the first choice totalled, tails represents the second.

During the Night period, the two wolves will not communicate. They may not PM each other, as they do not know each other. Each wolf will PM only one choice of kill to the moderator; think carefully before sending a PM, as decisions are final. Should the wolves conveniently agree on a kill, the choice will be upheld without question. Upon disagreement, a decision will be made by the moderator with the flip of a coin: heads represents the first choice received, tails represents the second. Only one toss will occur.

All players must be invisible at all times.

---

Discussion Thread (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=496574#post496574)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

A raven perched above the gate, glaring sullenly at the pounded dirt road, daring the riders to turn, to pause and to look past the shadows of twilight.

It was an entrance that only a tortured soul could so lovingly, so masterfully, produce: a barred gate, its supports painstakingly molded into the intertwining forms of snakes and chains, the twisted handles jeweled with ruby eyes. The dirt of the road extended beyond the high stone walls only as far as the wind could blow it over the time softened stonework of the wide, twisting drive. Dying trees were ornaments of a time long passed, and a small castle crumbling ruins now, overlooked the thorned flowerbeds, the dried out streams, and the murky ponds from the top of a low, overgrown hill.

The raven called to the two travellers and winged away from them, turning its back without concern, leaving them halted, uncertain, at the foot of the hill, looking from each other to the ivy-grown walls and beyond to the ruined towers atop the land.

"We must move on... it will soon be dark." A murmur. The wind had that special quality of lingering, of whispering, and the horses danced.

"Bad luck, that... tomorrow?"

"Yes... we shall together explore in the daylight." A last, lingering, ray of afternoon crowned the ruined castle. A moment later, the building was sillhouetted. A moment later, the travellers were gone.

The next night the Dark Lady waved a hand dismissively, glancing at her newest slaves with unhidden disdain, stroking the ebony head of the bird perched beside her. The room was cold; she sat crowned in silver and onyx and her black robes faded into the shadows. Her hair was long, black, a cape of silken night. Her skin was moonlight and her eyes were jeweled death. Her slaves had only ever met those haunting orbs once; it was enough to break the strongest soul to stare into the abyss. They had not been weak. Now, she reflected, they were powerless. They had suspected nothing... they would learn quickly to regret such oversight.

They had moved on toward the village, the simple village, the thatched, castle village which had once paid tribute to her greatness and her beauty. The people of that village had offered everything and now... they would become nothing.

Scholars and dismal laborers. They shared none of the greatness of their forebears of old. Weak. Helpless. She laughed derisively. Ordinary. And these twain had joined them. They slept amongst them, broke bread with them, and at the very break of dawn, they had unwittingly returned to her.

The raven had been waiting. The gate had been open. They had been afraid. And they had chanced it. They found her in the tower, her eyes ablaze in the morning light, the infinite blackness of them drawing them to her. They had arrived at dawn and they would leave at dawn.

Unhappy fools; her eyes closed, affording her quivering minions a moment's release from the concentrated hatred in her gaze. They have fallen and now shall rise again, stronger than before, strong with the power I have given them, strong with the moonlight and silver and blood and claw, and the blind fools... The blind fools will pay.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Day One has begun.

[the phantom]

I have a few things to say. Most of them are obvious, but I'm a loudmouth and feel the need to fill up space.

1) The WWs don't know each other, therefore all votes are meaningless. Everyone will vote the way an innocent would vote, because the only thing anyone knows is who they are, and so everyone will try and preserve their own life.

2) Kills might be meaningful.

3) One of the WWs might kill his/her buddy. I'm thinking there might be a way to very slightly increase the chances of this happening, but the instant I say it the ploy won't work. Which leads me to my next point-

4) THINK before posting anything strategic!! We have very very very few chances to do something good strategically because Fea has done all she can to make it a pure luck-based village. I can think of two somewhat positive strategies to use against the WWs, but the moment I explain them they will no longer be viable. Remember that! Some things are better kept to yourself. Don't tell us "watch for this-and-that WW behavior" because as soon as you say it you can no longer watch for it. Just execute whatever you think of, and cross your fingers and hope that a few other villagers are doing the same. Only talk strategy if it is a strategy that is not hurt when voiced.

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list.

[Boromir88]

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list~the phantom
That's good enough for me...

Known innocents:
The Phantom

Unknown:
Anguirel
Diamond18
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
littlemanpoet
Mithalwen
mormegil
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
The Saucepan Man

That makes things a lot easer...I say we lynch Roa, I have an unfinished score to settle with her.

[Anguirel]

Very interesting. A selection of extremely loud villagers have been gathered, and are now being rapidly encouraged not to talk.

Well, I could shrug, say "suits me" and go back to my essay on Quixotism, Chivalry and Society, then return in the evening after a certain amount of wine and vote at random. It is tempting. I'm no one special. What difference can I make?

Bah humbug! phantom, I see one element of strategy that can helpfully be talked about.

The kills of the wolves, it seems to me, are rarely going to be unanimous, though a wolf in their right mind might well try their best to pick a target they thought their unknown partner was pursuing. This means there's going to be a frustrated wolf around a lot of the time. Will werewolfs try and put failed kills into action by day through persuasion?

And these rumours that we're being manipulated by some evil Daaaark Laaady. Pah. No ho paura. But it does take Mithalwen out of the running, surely...I don't see a blonde stooping to the employ of a brunette...

Then again...safe not to make assumptions...

Shall we try a day of blind lynch-mob behaviour and see what happens? Boro, I'm happy to lynch Roa if you like...

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.

[littlemanpoet]

Just letting you all know I'm here.

For the lynching.

Feel free.

But you'd be wasting your vote.

Of course that means nothing to you that I say that.

Cry havoc ye gods of war and werewolf!

Avast.

Anguirel, I'll lynch you yet.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While thinking to myself "Nothing to post..." I thought I'd throw in this little thought.

It's tempting to accept that we can't really get anywhere without luck. Is this going to lead us into a situation whereby we will be in exactly the same predicament on Day Two as we are in on Day One? And thence to Day Three similarly?

The wolves are not on the same page, so until we catch one we are puzzling over a muddled script. When/If we do catch one, we might make clearer guesses.

[The Saucepan Man]

Did anyone think to enquire whether the Wolves are working as a team or as lone hunters?

I did. And my understanding is that they are working alone. Which means that they are in competition.

This, I think, is a very useful piece of information. I paused to consider before deciding whether to set out my thoughts on how this might affect the situation, as I don’t want to give the Wolves any guidance as to how to behave to avoid detection. On balance, however, since any Wolf worth his or her salt (and every potential Wolf here is worth his or her salt) will be able to work it out, I thought it would be more advantageous to do so than not to do so. So, my preliminary thoughts based on this information are as follows.

First, the Wolves will be looking to kill each other, as well as killing innocent villagers. Indeed, I would go so far as to suggest that a Wolf's prime target at the moment will be the other Wolf. There is little advantage to an individual Wolf in having another Wolf operating independently in the village, given that there will still only be one nightly kill. Some advantage perhaps in the cover that it offers, but that is little different from the cover offered by innocent villagers. Certainly, to my mind, the disadvantages, to a Wolf, of having another Wolf operating independently outweigh any advantage. While both Wolves survive, then one is at risk of being killed by the other at night (and therefore losing), as well as being lynched during the day, and neither can be sure that their chosen nightly kill will end up dead the next morning. That the Wolves are out for each other’s blood should work to the village’s advantage while they both survive.

Secondly, since a dead Wolf is a losing Wolf, the Wolves are going to be far more afraid of dying than when hunting as a pack (where they can still end up on the winning team even if they die).

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.I rather agree with this. We have no Gifteds to worry about. Since it is more than likely that we will kill a few innocents along the way to victory, we should not worry about doing so. It’s not like we will be killing our Seer or anything. Innocents, therefore, should not be afraid to die while we still have a significant advantage in numbers.

Very little to go on so far, so I have no suspects and no presumed innocents. I am, however, wary of the suggestion that we should focus our attention on one villager (namely Roa) as, unless that suggestion is by some chance (ie blind luck) correct, we will be making it much easier for the Wolves to avoid death.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another thought. How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Difficult to achieve, I suppose, as it will require the agreement and participation of every villager. One possibility is to have each villager vote for the person named after them on the original list in post #1, ie Ang votes for Boro, Boro votes for Di etc etc.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Would anyone like a glass of milk to go with their clueless posts?

So if we don't bandwagon against anyone, will my individual vote count for anything? Mind you, I have no one specific in mind, but am puzzled as to how we are to arrive at a consensus. As it is now, I will have to vote early and thereby have no possibility whatsoever of actually influencing the outcome of the day.

*starts trying to recall all the children's rhymes that were once used for random decisionmaking...

Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens. :rolleyes:

[mormegil]

Another thought. How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Difficult to achieve, I suppose, as it will require the agreement and participation of every villager. One possibility is to have each villager vote for the person named after them on the original list in post #1, ie Ang votes for Boro, Boro votes for Di etc etc.

The problem there, as I see it, is that Fea stated that she would only take the first two to reach a tie; in other words in your scenario Boro and Di would be the two candidates for lynching and nobody else unless you have a 13 sided coin.

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list.

Glad to know that! I mean for just a second I thought I had better examine what you say. Now I know that I can focus elsewhere, because Fea simply wouldn't ever make you a wolf to satisfy her own morbid sense of chaos. :rolleyes:

[Anguirel]

Weeell. If you're right, Sauce, about the wolves being in competition, that puts us in an incredibly strong position, but I must say I got no hint of that either in the narration or the rules.

So by the scenario you think we're in, if the village is reduced to four and the two wolves live, the struggle continues?

I must say I don't put credence in that. Unless this is specifically clarified by Fea, I will assume that the two werewolves regard each other as (albeit unknown and unpredictable) allies. Having what would be in effect a pair of Werebears seems to make the whole affair far too difficult for the enemy. This is an unorthodox pack, but a pack nonetheless, methinks.

I think we should recall that the, ahem, Dark Lady of the Werewolves hinted that personal animus and politics, relating to her and each other, might play some role. Would it be useful, then, to confess to any feuds we nurse against our fellow villagers? Some shadows of the past have already surfaced...Boro wants Roa hanged and LMP remembers Shamville...

[Mithalwen]

*arrives a little startled* ... sorry this is a slightly earlier start than expected and I have had little time to do more than read the rules such as they are and skim the posts ... doesn't seem that anyone has declared a dislike of Day Ones yet.. :p

This really is a bit of a Donald Rumsfeld farewell game ... known unknowns and no doubt many unknown unknowns.... so stabbing in the dark may be order of the day.... more no doubt later but that tiresome thing called gainful employement interupts....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting idea, SPM, I had not even considered that possibility.

Also, on further inspection: when does the game end? Who can win? I really want to assume nothing and suspect that every word (and omitted word) in Fea's introduction hides vast trickery and deceit.

[Anguirel]

Point taken, Eomer. So the fact there's no reference to the endgame means we're probably going to be stuck as the Dark Lady's pawns for the rest of eternity.

Oh, well. I could think of worse fates. Esty, whip me up a nice buttercream and jam tart while I dredge up a sonnet for a bit of literary analysis, will you?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hasn't the Everybody does; moderator wins thing been done before? :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Everybody does? Well, we do lots of stuff. Did I mean 'dies'? Of course.

*looks sheepish and shakes fist at anti-editing law*

[The Saucepan Man]

Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens.Well, as it stands, aren't we more or less going to be metaphorically tossing a coin ourselves, on Day 1 at least ...?

The problem there, as I see it, is that Fea stated that she would only take the first two to reach a tie; in other words in your scenario Boro and Di would be the two candidates for lynching and nobody else unless you have a 13 sided coin.The only reference that I can find is in post #1:

There will be no double-lynching; if a tie occurs, a decision will be made by the moderator with the flip of a coin: heads represents the first choice totalled, tails represents the second.Using a coin suggests that the tie will be two-way, but does not preclude the possibility of more than two villagers being tied at the end of the day and each one being at risk of random lynching.

I must say I don't put credence in that. Unless this is specifically clarified by Fea, I will assume that the two werewolves regard each other as (albeit unknown and unpredictable) allies. Having what would be in effect a pair of Werebears seems to make the whole affair far too difficult for the enemy. This is an unorthodox pack, but a pack nonetheless, methinks.My understanding derives from my pre-game enquiries. Although, knowing this particular Dark Lady, I wouldn't put it past her to have answered my enquiry with the specific aim of causing confusion. :rolleyes: :D

[The Saucepan Man]

Using a coin suggests that the tie will be two-way, but does not preclude the possibility of more than two villagers being tied at the end of the day and each one being at risk of random lynching. Actually, the reference to the first and second choices totalled indicates that you may be right. We could do with some clarification on this point ...

[Kath]

Actually, the reference to the first and second choices totalled indicates that you may be right. We could do with some clarification on this point ...
Though with Fea's disappearance we won't have it for some time.

Even with the level of blind luck we're having to work with here, there are still ways of working out who the wolves are without the usual voting record and association analyses. We may also benefit from the lack of any Gifted players as we needn't worry about having pegged the Seer as a wolf (which a number of people here have done).

Would it be useful, then, to confess to any feuds we nurse against our fellow villagers? Some shadows of the past have already surfaced...Boro wants Roa hanged and LMP remembers Shamville...
Perhaps this could be a way to decide the lynch toDay. If everyone lists who they have a grudge against, for whatever reason, we could lynch the person the most people have grudges against. This way, when it got to say Day 3, we might avoid the usual problem of falling back onto past games and unsettled scores.

[Anguirel]

Lady Kath, I'm not certain so precise a grudge-listing would grant me a particularly long life...but it's certainly an idea...

OK, I'm willing to co-operate. phantom and Boro me ol' pals: Remember the Fen of Serech, otherwise known as the tenth village...

Or perhaps it would be Quath. Hmmm...spoilt for choice...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, we could tackle the matter from the other side - each of us declares whether or not s/he is a werewolf! Really, people - are we going to trust phantom's word that he isn't?!

I, of course, am not a wolf. Milkmaids are always symbolic of innocence and purity, and literary milkmaids are always fair of face, with tidy hair, starched white aprons, soft clean hands, nary a trace of perspiration, and not a whiff of the animals with whom they spend much of their day...

[the phantom]

How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?
Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens.
Do you really trust Fea to "flip a coin"?

She will be killing whoever she wishes throughout this game. When the WWs make their picks, she will kill the one she feels like killing.

Not that I'm complaining. As surpreme mod-god she has that right, and will no doubt choose kills that she feels will make this venture more entertaining.

Rest assured, despite all claims to the contrary, our host's lovely hands are unlikely to come into contact with any coins during the course of this slaughter.

And no, SPM, let's not tie everyone. The Dark Lady already has enough power without us handing her every bit of it. Let's at least be in control of the one area in which we have power (the lynch). The only way I'd ever support your random lynch plan is if I was the favorite to be lynched. In that case, I would definitely cry out for a mass tie and random lynching.

I think about the most useful thing we can do today is look at the list and decide who the "Dark Lady" would choose as WWs. Any thoughts?

[the phantom]

If everyone lists who they have a grudge against, for whatever reason, we could lynch the person the most people have grudges against. This way, when it got to say Day 3, we might avoid the usual problem of falling back onto past games and unsettled scores.
That makes sense.
phantom and Boro me ol' pals: Remember the Fen of Serech, otherwise known as the tenth village...
Ah yes- the village where you were the Ranger and Boro, Lal, and I survived to win as WWs. Surely you don't still have a grudge from that. You had a successful protection the 2nd to last night, so I don't see a reason for you to feel to down about your performance in that village.

Heh- I just thought.... you as the Ranger have a grudge against Boro and I as WWs, and you and Boro as WWs (WPenguins actually) have a grudge against me as the Hunter. Er- fake Hunter actually. A brilliant move on my part, I must say. ;)

Do I have a grudge against anyone? I can't think of one right off hand. If anyone thinks of a grudge that I should have against someone just let me know.

[Anguirel]

Fair dos. Here's what I think about the Fearewolf credentials of each villager.

Anguirel - I'd be quite likely. I've killed Fea as a wolf before in WWJIII, though I was eventually defeated. I also eventually got her strung up from beyond the grave in WWI.

Boromir88 - few personal motives here except what a terrifying wolf he always makes.

Diamond18 - Skittles and Diamond's near-perfect innocence so far makes this plausible.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Clearly a no-brainer. Of course Fea would love Eomer as her bondsman. But she might also like him to save the day heroically as a villager. Not so much of a no-brainer.

Estelyn Telcontar - Well, I'm not sure I'd be able to resist. Would Fea?

Kath - Though she's a deadly operator, I could see Fea going after slightly more risque wolves.

littlemanpoet - WWIII, the Eorling Mead Hall and ATM make a strong connection here...

Mithalwen - similar to Esty. But Mith does make such a delightful heroine.

mormegil - plausible on account of his habitual loudness, but no particular history of antagonism here that I remember.

Nogrod - a career too chequered to be true?

Roa_Aoife - all I can say is whatever side Roa's on, Fea will be angling to break her victorious track record...

the phantom - sort of similar to Eomer, with a darker twist

The Saucepan Man - is our Dark Lady as sadistic as she sounds? Not that much of a feud here, so similar case to Boro

Conclusions - pretty scant.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'd like to remind you that I have a 100% record of being an innocent villager.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Oh, and a 100% record of being on the winning side too!

[the phantom]

And I have a 100% record of Esty being in every game that I mod. ;)

So, Ang, if I'm reading your list correctly, based on mod-preference you would recommend lynching Esty- and yourself. How selfless of you. I will add you to my little list.

My current lynch list-
Ang
Di
Esty
morm

People I won't be voting for today-
Boro
Eomer
Kath
lmp
mith
Nogrod
Roa
tp
SPM

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?

[the phantom]

Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?
Because if I was modding I would've made you a WW. Without a doubt.

[Boromir88]

But your not modding

[Anguirel]

phantom, your dogma is pretty inflexible at the moment. That makes me think you more likely to be innocent - so far.

However, your assertions that Fea is going to pick everything rather than randomise it exaggerate our plight, I feel. Besides, let's look at what the Lady actually said -

There was a reason each of you were chosen. You all know me. You also know each other, at least to a point.

Though I didn't directly choose the wolves, you may not want to assume it was a completely random choice.

That implies elements of luck and preference - perhaps randomised shortlists which were then manipulated, but in any case no reason to brand Esty a wolf immediately...

[Diamond18]

Hello, hello again, sha-boom I'm hoping we'll meet again....

Who do I have grudges against? Who would I most like to throw sharp and pointy items at? EOMER! Eomer! Ha ha ha ha haaaaa! And Boromir. He knows I swore to have my revenge on him, and no, I have not yet gotten it, good sir.

But really, I think that tp is a wolf, because, look at the moderator. End of story!

[the phantom]

But your not modding
Ah, but that doesn't make my observation useless. Both Ang and I have stated that we would have an extreme desire to make Esty a WW if we were modding. Surely marking someone as an attractive WW means something.
However, your assertions that Fea is going to pick everything rather than randomise it exaggerate our plight, I feel.
Oh, well. I'm just speaking my mind.
That implies elements of luck and preference - perhaps randomised shortlists which were then manipulated
Fea doesn't have to tell the truth if she doesn't want to. She can subtly mislead us or outright lie to us.
But really, I think that tp is a wolf, because, look at the moderator.
Too obvious and predictable. And don't give me the bluff-option. It's just plain old too predictable- not what Fea would want for this village.

[Diamond18]

Both Ang and I have stated that we would have an extreme desire to make Esty a WW if we were modding. Surely marking someone as an attractive WW means something.

Well, I suppose. But I never get to play with Esty, I don't want her to die right away. So there. That's logic for you.

Boromir, on the other hand, now here's a fellow I've played with several times, and who killed me second to last time, when I was the Seer and had dreamt of him and had spent half the night writing up an eviscerating analysis of him. That's why I think I shall be voting for him toDay.

So there, there's my completely random and petty reasoning, ha ha!

Now I'll hang around a bit, talking lots of nonsense, before writing my vote in stone and hightailing it out of here.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Thanks, Di! Here I was thinking I'd finally let myself get talked into participating in a WW game for the first time since a year ago only to get lynched on the first day...

Now, I enjoy getting called "attractive" by young men, but does it have to be in the context of "attractive werewolf?! :eek:

[Diamond18]

Okay, so, here's the self defense portion of today's posting.

I can echo Esty's sentiment:

I'd like to remind you that I have a 100% record of being an innocent villager.

But unlike Esty I have several games under my belt which makes this stat far more impressive. In fact, I've lost count of how many games I've played in thus far, but I've been lily-white in every single one of them. I think it's been upwards of ten or so games.

So, there is a rule in WW, which it would do you well to consider:

Said Rule

Diamond18 is not evil. She has never been evil. She will never be evil. So let it be written, so let it be done. Or not done, depending on how you are interpreting the word "it" in this context. If "it" is "a moderator assigning an evil role to Diamond" then "not done" is the proper phraseology.

Thank you for your time.

[Kath]

If we're going on petty reasoning the only person I have is morm, but I have no grudge against him, we've just played too many games together to assume we're on the same side.

Oh, and I suppose I could have something against Ang, but since I got him lynched from beyond the grave I'm pretty sure we can call that quits.

[Nogrod]

An interesting mix of randomness and hidden determinism we have here...

The problem surely is that both ends seem to eliminate free will and reasonable decision making by our part. But as always I would carry the card of reasoning here, even against all odds.

I agree with the phantom that we should not give any more of our limited powers to the Dark Lady and her random-machinery / personal picks.

That would call for actual points made against people here, hopefully cases with arguments. They will be tough to make in a game like this where the dynamics are so different (as long as we have two wolves alive, even the Nightly kills will not tell us much, if anything).

Looking at the grudges is a nice idea, but it probably has only entertainment value (that should not be underestimated, thoug) and it might steer the voting somewhat. Unfortunately it has about nothing to do with getting the wolves.

Thinking whom Fea might pick as wolves - if and when she has hand picked them with some level of randomness - could be a better approach. But with this entourage, it will be very hard (and thence again, enter randomness).

Then there is the traditional way of looking at peoples posting and looking at them again... Laborous but making the game much fun and challenging. And surely we wish to answer Fea's challenge: can you reason your way out when everything is geared up to maximise the absence of clues?

The first one I came up with concerns Spm. He says: Did anyone think to enquire whether the Wolves are working as a team or as lone hunters?
I did.Now Spm might be a thorough player who even as an ordo will think through all possible variations before the game and PM the mod in advance to get clearance for any issues that have been unclear to him.

I do not deny that possibility. But... and but. What it looks like is a person who has been appointed as a wolf and who then had an interest to know as that thought would have easily come into a wolf's mind. And a wolf would need to know it.

I do not say entertaining ideas on what the villains will do is bad for villagers, quite the contrary. But somehow asking via PM that question in advance sounds a bit too exhaustive preparation for an ordo-game.

Why did he speak about it openly then? He would have guessed someone might make note of it as I do here? I don't know... maybe he just wanted to look helpful and thoughtful. Which he is indeed, if he is an ordo!

[Kath]

Quick question which is going in here since there are people around - what is the deadline? In terms of GMT preferably. :)

[Diamond18]

PS -- You don't think Fea would break this rule, do you? Do you really?!?! Fea respects rules. Just look at ATM2. She's Aretha Franklin.

Now, I enjoy getting called "attractive" by young men, but does it have to be in the context of "attractive werewolf?!

Maybe they find werewolves to be attractive because they are wolves!

:eek:

[Anguirel]

Well. Hmmm. Examining things from Fea's point of view, these are my deductions -

-She would want an entertaining, exciting and preferably close fight - which is why I think the two disconnected wolves have to be basically in this together, as far as that's possible, rather than being werebears - unless there's some other variable involved.

-She would love phantom to be a Fenris Wolf.

-She wouldn't be averse to springing Diamantine surprises on us.

I have therefore decided that if phantom is a wolf, he is probably an extra wolf, thrown in to be lynched on Day 1. He might not even have been told that he is such...

[Diamond18]

An interesting point you make about SpM, Nogrod. What I found more strange was his bizarre plot to tie everyone at one, which would only result in mine and Boromir's deaths. The question is, is he evil? Or just taken one too many pots to the head? :D

[Diamond18]

[quote=Anguin]I have therefore decided that if phantom is a wolf, he is probably an extra wolf, thrown in to be lynched on Day 1. He might not even have been told that he is such.[quote]

I can do you one better. tp is an innocent, but he is a special sort of innocent. You can't kill him. Even if we vote to lynch him, or the wovles try to kill him, he simply won't die. The heavens will open and floods will wash away the earth, but Fea will just laugh, and tp will just gloat.

Oh, and if you lynch me, my lover will die. Just thought I'd mention that.

[Diamond18]

Oh Fea, you're killing me. Those messed up quote tags are going to keep me up at night.

[littlemanpoet]

Just a stupid observation and sorry if you've already made it in a post I haven't read yet, but nobody died last night. So that's weird. Okay, we're in a werewolf game, so we know that there will be deaths. But to have a lynching before the first kill? That's really odd.

Now for a bit of speculation causes shivers down my gaming spine: what if Feamoderator is the third werewolf? Is that completely outside the realm of possibility? :eek:

[Anguirel]

Ooo, Audrey, that sounded like a challenge. I feel a testosterone frenzy coming upon me...must...resist...

++THE PHANTOM

Ha! The great Anguirel is equal to slaying the measly phantom any day! Just try and stop me! I am the Lord of the Ring, and I do not share power! Give me the Silmarils, the High Kingship of the Noldor, and the hands of Luthien and Idril, now!

[littlemanpoet]

Said Rule

Diamond18 is not evil. She has never been evil. She will never be evil. So let it be written, so let it be done. Or not done, depending on how you are interpreting the word "it" in this context. If "it" is "a moderator assigning an evil role to Diamond" then "not done" is the proper phraseology.

Thank you for your time.SPM one a game as a werewolf banking on just such a "rule". Tough beans, you lycanthrope.

[littlemanpoet]

Uh, that is, "won" a game. :rolleyes:

[Kath]

Huh, that's a good point lmp.

So what do we think would happen if nobody voted? Think it would be similar to your little plot in ATM? Or would Fea just roll her eyes, flip her coin and lynch someone at random?

[Diamond18]

This no editing rule is getting to be embarressing. Is Fea really trying to make us think before hitting "Submit Reply"? She really is evil. I'd check her for fangs.

[Boromir88]

If I'm killed at night lynch Diamond.

[the phantom]

But I never get to play with Esty, I don't want her to die right away.
Oh, that's fine with me. I never commited to killing her today.
Now, I enjoy getting called "attractive" by young men, but does it have to be in the context of "attractive werewolf?!
I think pointy teeth are sexy. So sue me.
Diamond18 is not evil. She has never been evil. She will never be evil. So let it be written, so let it be done.
I completely forgot about that rule. That totally changes my mind. You're off my lynch list, Di. Who should I replace you with?

Nogrod, I also spent a bit of time pondering SPM's posts regarding his knowledge of the rules. However, I found that I could spin him either way, WW or ordo, and so decided to leave him alone for the time being and see how things develop. There are a couple things in his post that I have flagged for future reference, and if certain things happen then I'll go back to it and make a decision.
I have therefore decided that if phantom is a wolf, he is probably an extra wolf, thrown in to be lynched on Day 1. He might not even have been told that he is such...
Honestly, I could see this being done to me. The question is, will Fea, after pegging me as a WW in the narration, reduce the WW count to one, and only after the next one dies let the village know that actually there is yet another.
tp is an innocent, but he is a special sort of innocent. You can't kill him. Even if we vote to lynch him, or the wovles try to kill him, he simply won't die.
Okay, you are just plain scary. Fea's going to be ticked when she sees someone has already guessed one of the primary gags we planned for this village.
Now for a bit of speculation causes shivers down my gaming spine: what if Feamoderator is the third werewolf? Is that completely outside the realm of possibility?
No.

And also, I thought I'd mention that Fea is absolutely loving us right now. We've managed to make her, a non-player, the center of this village.

Which is something I'm sure she was hoping to accomplish by removing most strategy and choosing only individuals she is familiar with.
++THE PHANTOM
I saw that coming yesterday.

But I also know you'll change your vote before the day is through, so no harm done. ;)

(and yes, I realize that my arrogant declaration has made it more likely that you will not change your vote)

If I'm killed at night lynch Diamond.
What if you're lynched during the day? Still lynch Di, or someone else?

[Boromir88]

No sane innocent villager would want to lynch me...I'm only a kill target. So, if killed at night lynch Diamond. You would have to understand our past to know the reason behind it...I can say no more.

[mormegil]

I am not nearly caught up as I work and am busier than normal. But from what I read I feel it a bit specious to believe Esty would be a wolf based on the fact that phantom and Ang would want her to. I believe Fea smarter than this and would know that many of us would want to see Esty as a wolf, my included. Honestly though, I could see her having the phantom as a wolf just to see him handle the pressure and 'play' with him so to speak. So if we are trying to assess how Fea would behave I would vote the phantom as my first pick.

[Nogrod]

Honestly though, I could see her having the phantom as a wolf just to see him handle the pressure and 'play' with him so to speak. So if we are trying to assess how Fea would behave I would vote the phantom as my first pick.I would agree, but then again... and this is the slippery slope this approach falls into quite fast.

It would be quite easy to see Fea picking Roa as a wolf to see how she could manage with this crowd. We all know the stunning performances she has given us in previous games, especially as a baddie. It would be entertaining.

But shouldn't she also pick Diamond just for the reason Di gave us as the rule of her always being the innocent?

And Kath has always made a fantastic wolf as she seems to survive long in the games (at least by my "lorebooks"), she would be the wolf of Fea's choice if she wishes the game to go on for more than a couple of Days...

Or...

As you see. You can come up with a good reason for Fea picking about anyone to be a wolf in this game. So I'm not so sure how much this kind of approach is of help to us.

And she still might have made the choises in ways we have no idea about...

[the phantom]

I could see her having the phantom as a wolf just to see him handle the pressure
What pressure?

Strategy and analysis is what I do. Strategy and analysis is what has been taken out of this village by the format and rules. Therefore I feel absolutely no pressure to win at all. Pressure can only exist in the presence of expectations, and being a rational sort of chap (as you know) I can't help but have no expectations for this little adventure.

By surviving to the end as a WW I wouldn't be proving my greatness. I would only be proving that the villagers had bad luck in lynching and I had good luck in killing. Does that sound like the sort of thing that would be attractive to an ego like me? And also, do you think Fea would choose me to be one of her precious two WWs when the very rules she has supplied would take away from me the very things that would make me a good WW choice in the first place?

In a regular village I could see it. In this village- no. Fea's too smart to pick me, and she knows good and well that I wouldn't want to be picked.

[Anguirel]

One of the wolves was randomised. No one can be ruled out.

I shall stick to my vote to test the bounds of possibility, unless I have some new, brilliant plan...

[Diamond18]

I completely forgot about that rule. That totally changes my mind. You're off my lynch list, Di. Who should I replace you with?

Boromir, of course. Have you not been paying attention?

If I'm killed at night lynch Diamond.

I agree completely.

However, as I'm not a wolf, and can't kill him at night, the following is my only recourse:

++Boromir

I may or may not return later.

[Mithalwen]

I am here and catching up. I have also been pondering Sauce's interest in the rules and am tipping towards to thinking that it is merely the lawyer looking for a loophole. However it is not impossible that it is a bluff .... however ... I need to catch up.

If it comes down to an arbitrary choice it may have to be Kath for me - she was the pick of my random villager selection procedure.... I hope it won't ..after all in a parallel universe she is my twin .... :p

[Anguirel]

It should be pointed out that phantom is not the only player who, by his plodding logic, is "too obvious" to be picked. Eomer and LMP have almost as telling claims, and possibly also me; which my the phantomial system rules out almost a third of the population.

I say we act as if both wolves were decided randomly; Fea's choice is not necessarily going to rely on who has had the highest profile frolicking with her, in some form or another, on the Downs.

I would still like to see the phantom lynched, in a spirit of charity, to give him a fair chance at joining the Fenris Pack. Also, by his own admission, his talents are superfluous here...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

"O, what men dare do! What men may do! What men daily do, not knowing what they do!"

--From Much Ado About Nothing (IV, i, 19-21)

[Anguirel]

Will your Grace command me any service to the world's end? I will go on the slightest errand now to the Antipodes that you can devise to send me on. I will fetch you a hair off the great Cham's beard, do you any embassage to the Pygmies, rather then hold three words conference with this Harpy.

[Mithalwen]

Would Fea be so mean as to create circumstances in which my Lord Anguirel could become Fenris wolf and bar? That might be too great an honour for him to bear .... hmm ...

[the phantom]

I completely forgot about that rule. That totally changes my mind. You're off my lynch list, Di. Who should I replace you with?
Boromir, of course.
Lynch Boro? Absolutely not. He's not a WW.
Eomer and LMP have almost as telling claims, and possibly also me; which my the phantomial system rules out almost a third of the population.
What's wrong with ruling out "almost a third of the population"? You've got to start somewhere.
I would still like to see the phantom lynched, in a spirit of charity, to give him a fair chance at joining the Fenris Pack.
But unfortunately, you cannot make me a Fenris Wolf in this game no matter what you do, for I am not a WW. And in the future if I am a WW, you won't suspect me and I will win. You know it's true. If you really really want me to join the Fenris Wolf pack, then mod a game, make me join, make me a wolf, and send pms to everyone to lynch me on Day 1.

If you lynch me today all that would be accomplished is the loss of my entertaining posts. And you know it in your gut, Ang, I know you do.

[Bêthberry]

"O, what men dare do! What men may do! What men daily do, not knowing what they do!"

--From Much Ado About Nothing (IV, i, 19-21)

"Do wah diddy, diddy dum diddy dum." --The Exciters, Manfred Mann, "Jesse and the Rippers".

[the phantom]

That was.... random.

[the phantom]

Which was the point, I'm sure.

[Mithalwen]

Does that mean we can lynch Bethberry?

[Anguirel]

But unfortunately, you cannot make me a Fenris Wolf in this game no matter what you do, for I am not a WW. And in the future if I am a WW, you won't suspect me and I will win.

Victory passes from man to man. To me, village! Throw off the shackles of your insidious village phantom!

Mith, you're not contemplating lynching me, are you? I always get biffed out of the invitation only games early...sniff...

I don't particularly suspect Boromir, incidentally, which is something of a first. If I wanted to skewer a wolf, rather than romp after petty grudges which is much more amusing at the moment, I'd probably vote for Nogrod. His Sauce case seems specious and he's playing this affair quite safe.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Does that mean we can lynch Bethberry?Yes. If you want to.

[the phantom]

To me, village! Throw off the shackles of your insidious village phantom!
Ahhh... the crusade has begun. How long have you waited for this opportunity, Ang?

You were a WW in WW I and I cast the first vote for you on Day 1 and got you lynched.

You tried to lynch me in WW IV and failed.

In WW X I was the WW and I left you, the Ranger, alive till the end and killed you.

In WWJ IX you were a WPenguin and I lynched you and your buddies.

Mwu ha ha ha! I OWN you Ang. Don't try and fight me. It won't help anything. Just accept your place in the village, which is "great player cursed with bad luck concerning all things phantomish."

While I'm here, my new lynch list-
Di
morm
Nogrod

People I won't be voting for today-
Ang
Boro
Eomer
Esty
Kath
lmp
mith
Roa
tp
SPM

Yes, you're back on the list, Di. I realize there is a Di=innocent rule, but rules were made to be broken, and who better than Fea to break rules. :p
Well, we could tackle the matter from the other side - each of us declares whether or not s/he is a werewolf! Really, people - are we going to trust phantom's word that he isn't?!
Ha ha ha! :D I was rereading and caught this. The thing that makes me laugh is that actually you should trust my word that I'm not a WW, for a reason that is obvious and yet probably not known except perhaps by one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me.

[Nogrod]

If I wanted to skewer a wolf, rather than romp after petty grudges which is much more amusing at the moment, I'd probably vote for Nogrod. His Sauce case seems specious and he's playing this affair quite safe.Nothing to do with our last game? :D

But actually one more thing. So, if killed at night lynch Diamond. You would have to understand our past to know the reason behind it...I can say no more.But that's just the "tragedy" of this game. We can't take any hints from the Nightly kills either as the wolves are not a pack but individuals. So any reasonable wolf might just stick into this kind of relations among other people so that we would then interpret them in a way to her/ his advantage.

Sorry about being a bore and trying to be in the bussiness too... :rolleyes:

[Anguirel]

phantom old chap, you forgot WWII, where I was the Guardian and you killed me on Night 2...

Zeus the Skylord gives out good and bad fortunes to good and bad men just as he wishes...

The same gods do not always preside over the same people...

[the phantom]

phantom old chap, you forgot WWII, where I was the Guardian and you killed me on Night 2...
You're right.

Wow.... things are even worse between us than I thought.

[Anguirel]

Come to think of it, I second Kath ...any chance of a deadline?

[Bêthberry]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen
Does that mean we can lynch Bethberry?


__________________



Yes. If you want to.

Great new twist, lynching people totally not in the game. Go ahead, Mith, make Fea's day: absolute randomness. absolutely. :smokin:

[Estelyn Telcontar]

If it wouldn't give the wolves an advantage, lynching Bb would be a great idea! :D

[Mithalwen]

That is tempting and would be suitably random ...

Ang, dear, I don't want to lynch you but your flattery belief in my innocence, while touching and well founded is a little disconcerting and reminds me of another time and another place, when you so nearly pulled the wool over my eyes...

Also I feel the odds are rather against us..... The odds of a wolf hitting another wolf relative to us hitting a wolf at all are somewhat lopsided. Looking ahead, it might be useful to know whether the kill was unanimous, very useful to know the near miss.. but because useful we are unlikely to find out......

I am a little wary of LMP .. not because I think him guilty but because of previous form of using WW to settle scores...

Little suspicious of Boromir .... but he is busy I know and there is the time zone thing ......

Did wonder wether there might be a wolf each side of the pond but that might be too balanced for Fea..

Raven in intro ..... a pointer at Quoth ?

All in all, nothing of substance ..I gave up making notes because while you are all amusing, no one knows a thing yet....

I don't think I can second guess Fea on what her most fun Werewolf combo would be.... after all in other company most of us would tend to be dominant wolves .... maybe with different styles ...some flamboyant Death or Glory types others cooler calculating assasins ....

Me? Not really in either category - I was spectacularly lucky in my successful wolvish outing. Ayway I'm not a wolf this time so... I maybe the weakest link .. the innocent you could most afford to lose... but I hope it won't be goodbye just yet ... this is befuddling but far from dull and I would like to stay a while......

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Another idea: Um... we're starting today? Nogrod, Boromir, and I are all still playing another game. Is this going to be a problem?

How about we solve their conflict by lynching them first? ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think Nogrod is not a wolf. Why would a wolf bother stirring the pot on the first day and making that point against SPM? It only draws attention.

[Mithalwen]

But Bethberry ... you are posting.... you are participating ....... perhaps we should ask our resident philosopher if you are"in the game".


:D .....

[the phantom]

Beth might be a WW. Yes indeed. I don't think anything Fea has said rules out the possibility of more WWs existing outside the list of players. But whether or not these outsiders can influence the village- I don't know.

Has anyone noticed that there are no conditions for victory? Does a village of two WWs and two villagers equal WW victory? Does slaying two village WWs equal villager victory? We do not know.

All that we know is that there are thirteen players and that two of the thirteen are WWs. No, it is not possible that Beth is one of the two WWs. Fea specifically says that out of the 13 players, two are WWs. Not only that, but she precisely defines who the 13 players are. There is no loophole there. If Beth is a WW, she is an extra.

[mormegil]

Does that mean we can lynch Bethberry?

Yes. If you want to.

Okay, I'm only to this point and doubt I'll get much further before I have interviews to go and do but I say curse you Fea! This is complete craziness and makes me want to freak out. How are we suppose to know who and how to lynch when you keep doing stuff like this? I guess I should have known what a Fea game would contain but I am a bit surprised by this new revelation, so to speak.

[The Saucepan Man]

Will, this has proven to be an extremely productive day so far.

Not. :rolleyes:

Still, hardly suprising, given the circumstances. Fea might as well have chosen the first lynch victim by the toss of a thirteen-sided coin for all that seems to have been achieved so far.

And we still don't know for sure whether the Wolves are a team or whether they hunt alone. I would have thought that to be a rather important piece of information. But I might as well have been running around in lime-green lycra tights brandishing a beetroot and shouting "wibble" at the top of my voice for all the good that it has done raising it.

As regards the suspicion cast in my direction for making a pre-game enquiry on this matter, it is something that I would wish to establish whether I was innocent or a Wolf. If I were a Wolf, however, I would not have shared the answer to my enquiry but rather allow the original assumption that the Wolves were playing as a team (albeit without knowing each other's identity) to stand.

Until advised otherwise, I will contine to base my approach on my understanding that they are in competition.

I do accept that my idea of creating a 13-way tie is off the cards, following Fea's subsequent clarification. It was not, however, a Wolfish ploy (indeed, had it been, it would have been an extremeley stupid one). It was an idea based upon my reading of the rules at the time, and one which I thought might put the Wolves under pressure.

If we are basing our ideas on Fea having some hand in the choice of Wolves, then my inclination is to look at those most capable of messing with the villager's heads. In that regard, the phantom, Diamond, Boro and Roa are the ones that spring to mind.

On the other hand, I take Nogrod's point that one could come up with reasons for Fea selecting any one of the villagers as a Wolf. I also share Ang's tentative view that at least one of the Wolves (if not both) was randomly selected.

As for grudges, they are not something which I particularly hold in Werewolving terms. The closest I come to holding a grudge is having people that I nearly always end up suspecting at some point in a game. For current purposes, that would cover elempi, Eomer, mormegil and the phantom.

Not sure who might have a grudge against me. Elempi, perhaps, from the time of my one Wolvish ancestor. Alos, possibly, Mith and Nogrod for my family's Goosey history.

Finally, I have only had an opportunity to review the latest contributions to our debate briefly, but I get the distinct impression that both Boro and the phantom have directed a fair bit of their energies today at telling us why they should not be lynched.

I shall go back and review the discussion to date.

My understanding, based upon the start time, is that the day will end at 2am GMT. If I am wrong, I should be grateful to stand corrected. If I am right, I should be back around 3 hours before the close of the day and will hopefully be around until the deadline.

[Kath]

Perhaps it might be an idea to try and lynch the wolves we know reside within the player list before we go panicking about those who may or may not exist beyond it? After all, if we lynch two wolves and the game is still going on we'll have our answer anyway. Bb is probably here simply for distraction, and look how well it's working!

But I might as well have been running around in lime-green lycra tights brandishing a beetroot and shouting "wibble" at the top of my voice for all the good that it has done raising it.
I have nothing to say over this, it's purely there in case people missed it in the nice long post Sauce just made. The images! :D

[mormegil]

Quickly weighing in on Nogrod's questions of SpM. I doubt that we can use such information to incriminate him as he would behave the same way regarding this: innocent or guilty. That is not to say he is innocent but I don't believe that this is cause to alarm. I doubt Fea would have SpM be a wolf.

I say we lynch Fea and form our own order and rules here!

[Mithalwen]

All I can say is that it is a longstanding convention that people who are playing/modding are the only participants in a WW game. Observers may comment when all is over but only Newbies tend to shove in their oar during a game... and Bethberry is more or less the complete opposite of a Newbie. She does have a mischievous streak and may think that anything goes ..... in this game .... she could be Fea's unnamed sidekick (the fact that she said "he" may be a blind) or she is a wild card...hmmm

So much to ponder and now so little time....

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I say we lynch Fea and form our own order and rules here!

Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!

[Kath]

Oh! And thanks for the deadline Sauce.

[the phantom]

We can vote to lynch Beth or Fea, by the way. (though I wouldn't recommend it)

In the rules about votes it says-
All votes should be posted as

++PLAYER NAME

or

--PLAYER NAME
That makes it look like we must vote for players only, but it doesn't say "must"- it says "should". So technically we can vote to lynch Beth or Fea, just in case you were wondering.

But what we don't know is whether or not votes for non-players count. The rules don't say.

Not that I'd vote for a non-player anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

++ The Phantom

Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.

Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.

Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.

And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me.

I do, of course, reserve the right to change my vote when I return ...

[Mithalwen]

Wibble is my line .... ;)

And I don't have any grudges against any players .... As far as I know all issues are resolved (lets face it, I am not someone who conceals such things well...) ..... and so far it is one of those spells when the planets are in the right conjunction for me not to be squabbling with the Pan Man (yet) possibly the strangest factor of this game. :rolleyes:


I am inclined to think that the Pan Man is innocent because it makes more sense ... it would be a bit risky and attention seeking for so early in the discussion. But while I am good at spotting a cobblerish Pan Man I find it hard to read him when he plays a less ambiguous role .... but I could vote for him to maintain the tradition if you so wish .. but I don't think it would be a great choice ...

The phantom is not a priority either ... he is being quite constructive... and tooo obvious.... but he and Fea have such a convoluted history .... argh .... make me the village contortionist I am getting into knots...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Everybody works for their side to win. That doesn't specifically mean that anybody is working together. However if a wolf wins, both wolves are allowed bragging rights, just as if a villager wins, all villagers may claim victory.

As for Bethberry, she was an unexpected bonus. I didn't ask her to post. But her post nevertheless amused me a lot. You can vote for her. You can vote for me. You won't know how such voting will affect the game unless you try it.

And the end of day is, for any still confused, just under six hours from now.

Also, my unnamed cohort in crime is not a player, nor has he posted. He has no bearing in this game.

[Mithalwen]

Now I am on the horns of a dilemma.....

I was just about to think better of my whim to vote BB (BethBerry is watching us!), as being too frivolous (though in the spirit of htis random game!) and plump for either Kath as my preselected random person or Noggin for being suspiciously quiet relative to timezone (mean maybe since he has two games concurrent) ... but now..it seems we can alter our destiny perhaps .....

I do have to go.... v soon ..oh...........

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea, you are a minx, a rascal, a devil, and a scamp and you are lashing my poorly ratiocination.

For this reason I will be unhappy with my vote, but as long as I accept that I could not possibly be happy with any vote then I will be able to sleep tonight.

Back.....soon!

[Mithalwen]

++Bethberry

I can't resist but though it be madness there is a little method in it... I do have to go now. I feel a vote for any of my other random suspects might be too significant at this early stage. I feel votes are going to be very spread out and two or three might be enough to seal someone's fate.... on this most random of first days I shall be completely random .... and risk the consequences if my fellow villagers think I am copping out... which is a valid perspective :( but heigh ho....

[the phantom]

Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.
When?

I've done that in many villages, but not this one.

In post #35 I answer Di when she asks about Fea making me a WW.

In post #58 morm has raised the question again, but from a more specific angle, and I answer him.

In post #66 I tell Ang (who voted for me) that his quest to make me a Fenris wolf is pointless.

That's it, Sauce. When you consider that I've posted, by my count, 16 times today, I've hardly spent any time at all trying to convince people not to lynch me. And when I do say anything, it is always in direct response to someone questioning me. Would you have me ignore everyone, oh wise one?

Now, I don't mind you voting for me, but please... use real reasons and not made up ones with no truth to them. That reason is ridiculous. You can do better.
Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.
I've already adressed that. It's highly unlikely.
Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.
That is true of everyone, so that's hardly an argument.
And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me.
That is the only good reason you give.

If you decide you don't want to change your vote and stick with me, then I would ask that you would repost your vote with your only real reason listed and all that other useless drivel omitted.

And quite frankly, your first reason for guilt is so incredibly far off base and wrong that I almost want to suspect you because of it. Clean up your act, Sauce, this is subpar thus far.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++LITTLEMANPOET

There is no reasoning other than that I know Fea would like to have you as a wolf, and also because there are only a couple of people I'm willing to rule out immediately.

You ain't one of them.

[littlemanpoet]

I am a little wary of LMP .. not because I think him guilty but because of previous form of using WW to settle scores... I have but one score to settle. Well, actually two, but I can't take out the moderator for having been the one who caught me out way back in game 4 (or was it 3?). So I must make my (revocable) revenge vote:

++ANGUIREL

[Boromir88]

Eomer:
I think Nogrod is not a wolf. Why would a wolf bother stirring the pot on the first day and making that point against SPM? It only draws attention.
When Nogrod's a wolf, he's capable of doing anything, as unwolvish, or unprecedented as it might be. Don't under-estimate him.

Sauce:
If we are basing our ideas on Fea having some hand in the choice of Wolves, then my inclination is to look at those most capable of messing with the villager's heads. In that regard, the phantom, Diamond, Boro and Roa are the ones that spring to mind.
I can easily add you to this list. If memory serves me correctly, you were quite able to manipulate and mess with innocents mind when you were a wolf Mr. Sauce.

[the phantom]

I forgot- there's another reason your vote disappoints me, SPM. Remember reading this-
Well, we could tackle the matter from the other side - each of us declares whether or not s/he is a werewolf! Really, people - are we going to trust phantom's word that he isn't?!
...actually you should trust my word that I'm not a WW, for a reason that is obvious and yet probably not known except perhaps by one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me.
When I said "one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me" I thought you were one of them. Have you not noticed anything today that would make you trust my words? If not, oh well, maybe it's not as obvious as I thought. I'll have to tell you what it was after this is over. You'll laugh when you hear it.

Or maybe you do know what I mean but you're a nasty WW! But I'm leaving you alone today, so it doesn't matter.

[the phantom]

I'll be back before the deadline. Have fun.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Since my day is soon ending, I must make a decision soon. I've counted the votes so far; here are the results:

2 votes for Phantom

1 vote each for:
Boromir
Bb
LMP
Anguirel

It would be logical to cast a vote for one of them, as adding yet another candidate would only scatter votes more and make then less effective. Since Bb is not a player, voting for her is not logical. For some strange reason, I do not yet mistrust Phantom. I have no reason yet to mistrust LMP or Ang. I'm not sure about Boro - he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt.

Vote still pending due to indecision...

[Bêthberry]

All I can say is that it is a longstanding convention that people who are playing/modding are the only participants in a WW game. Observers may comment when all is over but only Newbies tend to shove in their oar during a game... and Bethberry is more or less the complete opposite of a Newbie. She does have a mischievous streak and may think that anything goes ..... in this game .... she could be Fea's unnamed sidekick (the fact that she said "he" may be a blind) or she is a wild card...hmmm

So much to ponder and now so little time....

Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a min-u-te!

This is a game thread? This is the game?

It looked like an RPG discussion thread. How was I to tell the difference? Idle banter without votes, lines thrown in like Fordim's song themes. Mods, mods! Confusion! Confusion between fora/forumtari/forumtiri.

*shuffles sheepishly over to discussion thread* Don't tell me. I'll find character posts over there. Sheesh. No wonder I don't join these games. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Even though we're playing in the fun-mode for Day1 - and wouldn't think it bad if we continued with that tone on the later Days even if we started playing more "seriously" (meaning not less fun but with some actual points made other than ww-history or ranting over previous encounters) - I still think we might try to come up with some reasoned decisions. I've had a really busy day and had have not so much time to stick in here as I would have wanted. And yes I admit, I have been the not-fun one as I haven't been able to gear up to the feeling due mostly to myself having to share my computer with Lommy today and needing to see to her little sisters social needs too...

But really, in this game everything seems possible. If we just look at the conventional idea of at least two of us being wolves and concentrating on it, so how would they act? At least one will surely be in the "safe-mode" if not both of them on Day1. What I mean: we may joke and poke each other but those being wolves will wish to carry the day and not to lose. So: they will mind their steps.

If Fea has made some picks or luck has so dictated, there will be also loud and funny wolves (minding her/his steps too within the limits of personal ranting around). In both ways this seems probable as most of you have been really entertaining (it's quite rare that I laugh out aloud in front of a computer screen...), so there is enough to choose from.

I might stick to my suspicion on Spm but I will try to make one last look before I vote and go. Here in Finland we have passed midnight and I have to wake up early...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

+offers Bb a glass of nice fresh in-character milk

[Kath]

Excuse me while I beat my computer.

Due to technical problems I'm going to have to (try to) vote now.

++THE PHANTOM

I'm bandwaggoning and I know it. Thought I might try a change in style since with the level of madness in this game it won't do any harm! Reasoning? Why not? After all, some have voted for Bb who isn't even in the game. I had half a mind to vote for Rune and see what happened. But I took my own advice and decided to go for someone we know is playing. It's random, but biased, based on the names that popped up at me when I thought about the thread.

Now, let's hope this actually posts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Grrrr - not being able to edit is definitely a downside of this game! I hope the fact that I inadvertantly typed a + instead of an * at the beginning of my in-character post doesn't confuse anyone. That was not a vote for Bêthberry! Here comes my vote now, based on several next-to-nothings:

++BOROMIR


...heading off for random dreams...

[Boromir88]

Based upon several psuedo-scientific studies I have done, here are my findings.

We have 13 members here (including myself). 1 wolf was chosen randomly, another was hand-selected. Therefor we have the random probability and chosen probability respectively. The chosen probability consists of several factors including (though they may vary from applicability of one person to the the next)....What kind of wolf Fea would want, how long/short it's been since that person was a wolf last (if ever), the climate of their geographical location ('hot' weathered places people tend to be more easily angered/violent...thus more likely to be wolves than cold or mild weathered climates), the order and amount of posting, and the norms of the society a person lives in. Plus various other random factors. Therefor, stated below is the probability (random, chosen, and mean) of each villager (excluding myself):

Anguirel:
random: all palyers have the same chance of being the random chosen wolf...so 1/12 or 8.3%

fits some of the categories, like the kind of wolf Fea would want, lives in a hotter climate, also a hostile/traitorous society.
chosen: 87%
Mean: 47.65%

Diamond18:
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits nearly every criteria to a T...99.9%
Mean: 54.1%

Eomer:
random: 8.3%
chosen: high probablility of being picked by Fea, unpredictable behaviour...52.6%
Mean: 30.45%

Estelyn
random: 8.3%
chosen: Very pleasant personality and and a pleasant/idealistic location. She may be chosen by Fea for these reasons, so 22%
Mean: 15.15%

Kath
random: 8.3%
chosen: Nothing suspicious about the climate she lives, nor the persona of a werewolf. Much like Estelyn only even less probable at 15%
Mean: 11.65%

littlemanpoet
random: 8.3%
chosen: Lives in such a good environment and society of pleasantness...it's suspicious. Plus several other traits...84.7%
Mean: 46.5%

Mithalwen
random: 8.3%
chosen: Questionable/chaotic environment with all her secretive 'assignments.' Plus needs to redeem herself from past wolfing experiences. High probability of 92.3%
Mean: 50.3%

mormegil
random: 8.3%
chosen: Nice location...wish I was in Utah, although Nevada is better. Anyway, low probability of 12.67%
Mean: 10.485%

Nogrod
random: 8.3%
chosen: Would be a good wolf choice by Fea, and tough to nab him...other than that doesn't fit well into the other criteria...25%
Mean: 16.65%

Roa_Aoife
random: 8.3%
chosen: High likelihood...seems similar to Mithalwen so one or the other is likely a wolf....93%
Mean: 50.65%

the phantom:
random: 8.3%
chosen: says he isn't so...0%
Mean: 4.15% or virtually nil

The Saucepan Man
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits into some categories, not so good in other an even...50%
Mean: 29.15%

(note: there is a +/- 12.446% margin of error)

Based off these statitistics the highest wolf probabilities are:

Diamond
Roa
Mithalwen

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it’s still unclear to me whether the Wolves are on the same “side” and that both win if one survives to the end. Fea’s “clarification” here is ambiguous, but suggests that they are on the same side. So I guess that’s the best that we are going to get.

Phantom, when I re-read your posts, I received the very clear impression that you were taking every opportunity to suggest that lynching you would not be a good idea. Which leads me to wonder whether lynching you might in fact be a very good idea. Particularly as, whatever misapprehensions that I may have been under in my first post, the following still holds true:

We have no Gifteds to worry about. Since it is more than likely that we will kill a few innocents along the way to victory, we should not worry about doing so. It’s not like we will be killing our Seer or anything. Innocents, therefore, should not be afraid to die while we still have a significant advantage in numbers.My reasoning for voting for you should not really have provoked such a vociferous defence in an innocent villager, particularly as I made clear that I may well change my vote before the day is out.

I am beginning to reconsider that now.

Yes, you would be an obvious and predictable choice for a Wolf by Fea. Which is what, to my mind, makes it such a distinct possibility.

When I said "one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me" I thought you were one of them. Have you not noticed anything today that would make you trust my words? If not, oh well, maybe it's not as obvious as I thought. I'll have to tell you what it was after this is over. You'll laugh when you hear it.I have read your words very carefully and seen much which has given me cause for thought. In a game of Werewolf, however, it is very dangerous to take anything said at face value. As I said, you would be one of the first players on my list of Wolves capable of messing with villagers’ heads. Still, if you are messing with my head, you are doing so successfully, as this gives me reason to reconsider yet again.

And while on that subject …

If memory serves me correctly, you were quite able to manipulate and mess with innocents mind when you were a wolf Mr. Sauce.Actually, I am not very good at messing with people’s heads. If I am innocent, I tend to post whatever theories or opinions I have at the time. If I am a Wolf, I work through ruthlessness and deception. But I am ill-equipped when it comes to the type of serious head-messing that Fea and TP are capable of.

If the truth be known, I hope that the phantom is not a Wolf. I will change my vote if a better option presents itself. But, right now, he’s about the only villager that I have any reasonable basis for suspecting.

Btw - going by Fea's further clarification on the timing, the day will end at 3am GMT. Which makes it unlikely, although possible, that I will still be here at the deadline.

[Nogrod]

Preview
Quote:Originally Posted by SpmFirst, the Wolves will be looking to kill each other, as well as killing innocent villagers. Indeed, I would go so far as to suggest that a Wolf's prime target at the moment will be the other Wolf.

Quote:Originally Posted by SpmAs regards the suspicion cast in my direction for making a pre-game enquiry on this matter, it is something that I would wish to establish whether I was innocent or a Wolf. If I were a Wolf, however, I would not have shared the answer to my enquiry but rather allow the original assumption that the Wolves were playing as a team (albeit without knowing each other's identity) to stand.

So establishing it here?

But the main point: is this good reasoning or lycantrophe-reasoning?What do I mean? Firstly I have done this kind of thing in few games earlier when I have been a villain. Make a revelation about the game-dynamics that is making the wolves more vulnerable - and gain a lot of trust to yourself!

Secondly I'm not sure whether this is even so daring as it seems to be more undecided one. Is this "shared information" actually bad for the wolves? More probably it might be an easy and safe piece of information to let loose? Someone would ask for it anyway so why not to strike first? Exactly the same line of thought one of my forefathers went through when he was a villain...

Thirdly it's over vague as it only points to general dynamics of the game and is not pointing to anyone in particular. So a safe bet to look like helping person but still not committing oneself to any real point-making about the others (okay, it was early in the game and this point might be a bit flawed by it, but I don't think totally flawed).

Well, these seem the best of reasons I can come up with on this weirdest of the Day1's I've ever seen...

If I'm not counting the very words of Spm himself with tp... That would indeed prove the point: a wolf would like to get rid of the other one to gain a control over the Nightly kills... and there seems to be a chance that tp is lynched. And surely Spm's points are not without a merit.

----------------------------------
I had some bad problems with the Downs (it was down for a while and ate most of my writing that is partly resurrected here) and I really need to get to sleep...

So

++Spm

I know I should tactically act differently as I have been gaining some suspicions (light or not - that will not count on most Day1's - and Roa will be just happy to vote for me too) and can't hang around any more. But I shall stick to my principles of voting with reasons, even mediocre ones, when better ones are not available.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here!

Okay, so to begin; forget the voting record. We don't need it. There are other things we can look at. That said:

Roa_Aoife - all I can say is whatever side Roa's on, Fea will be angling to break her victorious track record...

Hey! I've lost before. Ask Nogrod- he was there. Once, sure, but it still counts. And it was completely my fault. Curse my boldness! It was the end of me!

Diamond18 is not evil. She has never been evil. She will never be evil. So let it be written, so let it be done. Or not done, depending on how you are interpreting the word "it" in this context. If "it" is "a moderator assigning an evil role to Diamond" then "not done" is the proper phraseology.

Granted, this is a bit of a shot in the dark, but I've never liked a hasty defense. Especially when it comes before any accusation. So Diamond's never been a wolf before. That just makes her more appealing to be on a short list of candidates. And it makes a hasty slip up quite plausible.

Of course, I could just fall back on my old nemesis, and vote for Nogrod, but he's too much fun to kill right away.

And again, phantom's pessimism and insistence that there's nothing we can really do irks me, especially after he started the day with a statement about secret plans. So we have no voting record. Cry me a river. There's more to werewolf than voting records and kill counts. We are not as powerless as you make it out to be.

And who was it that suggested villagers were expendable for now? I read it and now I can't seem to find it again. Anyways, whoever said it, that's a silly idea. Why should we be? It's not like we're dying to protect a gifted. That would make sense. The only thing we'd be protecting are the wolves, and I know we don't want that.

[Nogrod]

And who was it that suggested villagers were expendable for now? I read it and now I can't seem to find it again. Anyways, whoever said it, that's a silly idea. Why should we be? It's not like we're dying to protect a gifted. That would make sense. The only thing we'd be protecting are the wolves, and I know we don't want that.I have no time to search for this but I remember the statement as well as I raised my eyebrows to it too. I have a vague feeling it was Spm... not a bad co-incidence if it was? You may correct this if I'm wrong.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ah, thankyou SPM for re-posting yourself. (I cross-posted. And before you start screaming about the time lapse, I was called away to dinner.)

So, as of right now, my top voting candidates are phantom, SPM, and Diamond. It may actually end up depending on a coin toss. I for one have never bothered to go for or against the general voting and just vote as my concious dictates.

Anyone have grudges against me? I don't remember....

[Diamond18]

Boro....

The chosen probability consists of several factors including (though they may vary from applicability of one person to the the next)....What kind of wolf Fea would want, how long/short it's been since that person was a wolf last (if ever), the climate of their geographical location ('hot' weathered places people tend to be more easily angered/violent...thus more likely to be wolves than cold or mild weathered climates), the order and amount of posting, and the norms of the society a person lives in. Plus various other random factors.

Diamond18:
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits nearly every criteria to a T...99.9%
Mean: 54.1%

I live in Wisconsin, and it's November. So I protest. Make it 90%, at most.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nogrod, as it turns out, it seems that I was quite possibly labouring under a misapprehension. Not sure how that affects your reasoning, though, as I suppose it could all be an elaborate bluff.

Anyways, whoever said it, that's a silly idea. Why should we be? It's not like we're dying to protect a gifted. That would make sense. The only thing we'd be protecting are the wolves, and I know we don't want that. It was me. Although my point was that, since a number of innocents are almost certain to die along the way and there is no danger of mistakenly lynching a Gifted, innocents should not be afraid to die. Therefore, vociferous protests of innocence and laborious defences are likely to be twitching my radar more than usual (cue Wolves to make no effort at defending themselves …).

Here are my thoughts on my fellow villagers so far:

Anguirel: Has come up with some good ideas for finding a Wolf in this crazy and unpredictable village, not least the “What would Fea do?” analysis. But his vote for the phantom was rather specious. And I share Mith’s concerns over his attempts to curry her favour. Nevertheless, he’s good value.

Boromir88: Another one who seems keen to sway us against voting for him. Has come up with the occasional comment and some theories, not least his highly unscientific probability assessment , none of which really assist in identifying a Wolf. But surely the “probability assessment is just too silly for a Wolf. Then again, perhaps that is what he wants us to think …

Diamond18: Seemingly relishing a grudge match, with Boro in her sights. Little else to go on.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Has commented occasionally, but not at length and nothing really substantive. Dangerous when he’s like this. Voted out of the blue for Elempi on the basis that he is a likely choice of Wolf by Fea (fair enough, actually).

Estelyn Telcontar: Seemingly still in “in-character banter” mode. Hardly surpirising in the circumstances, though. Little reasoning for her Boro vote, but he’s making me nervous too, I must admit. Worth watching, but nothing too suspicious so far.

Kath: Seems to have made some effort to suggest ways of actually finding a Wolf. But went with the developing phantom bandwaggon, which might suggest Wolfishness if the phantom is not a Wolf.

Littlemanpoet: Has said little of use and voted randomly, other than suggesting himself as a possible lynch candidate in a manner suggesting that he couldn’t possibly be a Wolf. Voted for Anguirel on the basis of a grudge.

Mithalwen: Some helpful thoughts. And then a vote for a non-villager. I suppose, given how little the voting will tell us, it’s not a major crime. And perhaps understandable in the circumstances. But still …

Mormegil: Much the same as Eomer, although has given a reason for his limited participation.

Nogrod: Characteristically and valiantly trying to steer us down a course of reasoning and logic. Against the odds in this village, I must say. Then again, this is standard Noggie behaviour, whether innocent or not. Jumped on my misconceived attempts at strategy rather quickly, resulting in a vote for me.

Roa_Aoife: Not really enough to go on at the moment. I like her optimism about catching a Wolf, though.

the phantom: ‘Nuff said on this subject (by me at least).

Bêthberry: Who? ;)

Hmm, it seems that Boro and Elempi might be viable alternative options to the phantom.

Voting to date:
Anguirel: ++the phantom (1)
Diamond: ++Boromir88 (1)
SpM: ++the phantom (2)
Mithalwen: ++Bêthberry (1)
Eomer: ++Littlemanpoet (1)
Littlemanpoet: ++Anguirel (1)
Kath: ++the phantom (3)
Estelyn: ++Boromir88 (2)
Nogrod: ++SpM (1)

It would appear that Kath, Esty and Mithalwen at least are unlikely to be returning.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kath: Seems to have made some effort to suggest ways of actually finding a Wolf. But went with the developing phantom bandwaggon, which might suggest Wolfishness if the phantom is not a Wolf.

It doesn't matter if phantom is a wolf or not- Kath wouldn't know anymore than any of us, regardless of her role.

[Diamond18]

Muwah ha ha ha! Muwah ha ha ha ha!

Random bursts of maniacal laughter. Something about this game just makes me want to do that.

[Diamond18]

Hmm, it seems that Boro and Elempi might be viable alternative options to the phantom.

Yes! Yes! Vote Boromir! You know you want to.

[The Saucepan Man]

It doesn't matter if phantom is a wolf or not- Kath wouldn't know anymore than any of us, regardless of her role.True. But a Wolf might be more inclined than an innocent to increase the number of votes for another (even at the risk of killing the other Wolf) in order to lessen the chance of ending up being lyched.

But you have a point. Traditional arguments based on voting, bandwaggoning etc are much less decisive in our current predicament.

[The Saucepan Man]

Developing that thought further, if a Kath-Wolf concluded that the phantom is likely not to be a Wolf (based, for example, on whatever clue it is he claims to have left), then she might add to the number votes for him to increase the likelihood of an innocent being lynched and decrease the likelihood of a Wolf being lynched.

Then again, TP is currently one of my prime suspects (in so far as we can have prime suspects in this game and at this stage), so it's all pretty hypothetical.

Is it me, or is the Downs being incredibly slow at the moment?

[Roa_Aoife]

++ Diamond18

This just for now, since I'm certain I'll be around till deadline, and I want to make sure I vote. This is subject to change.

Mostly, her sudden defense of herself and invocation of Diamond's Rule draws my attention. That and my natural inclination to be different is provoking me away from phantom, for now.

If I'm alive, I'll have my traditional post by post summary and analyisis of Day 1 for everyone started.

[The Saucepan Man]

Yes! Yes! Vote Boromir! You know you want to.I might well do.

Although I am leaning more towards Elempi at the moment. I am not a fan of grudge votes, even on Day 1, and he has not said or done much else to assist us in our travails so far today.

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not just you- I'm having troubles as well. One reason why I'm voting now.

[Diamond18]

It was glitchy for me a while ago, but it seems to be okay now.

[littlemanpoet]

I might well do.

Although I am leaning more towards Elempi at the moment. I am not a fan of grudge votes, even on Day 1, and he has not said or done much else to assist us in our travails so far today.
Oh SPM, how predictable. "Hmmm, Elempi's in this game. Elempi's always suspicious, and I always suspect him. Therefore he must be a werewolf." Gimme a break.

That said, I'm not willing to lead a charge against the redoubtable SPM just yet, though he's not by any means cleared of a single gnat picking thing.

Instead, my attention is drawn back to Roa's observation, which was mine first, I might add, that Diamond's premature defense was rather specious (love that word, morm!).

So even if Roa does change her vote later, I won't after this. Diamond has at least as good a chance of being a werewolf (considering who the moderator is) as any player. Therefore:

--ANGUIREL

++DIAMOND

There. I'm done for the night.

[Boromir88]

live in Wisconsin, and it's November. So I protest. Make it 90%, at most.
We'll compromise...99.8%

Oh but that still makes you the most probable...however:

++Sauce

[Diamond18]

Hmmmm... a late bandwagon forms. Considering tp's earlier comments he is likely to join in. This would tie me with tp and leave our lives down to a coin flip. So, as I'm leaving and won't be back till after the deadline -- Don't say I didn't warn you not to disregard the rule. Not that it won't give me satisfaction to say "I told you so" of course. But I wouldn't invoke the sacred rule in a dishonest fashion, that would be... dishonest. Which is evil. Clearly, such an action would break the rule. This is an impossibility, for the rule is immutable. It hurts my brain just to consider it.

Besides, tp and I are more entertaining than Boro.

[The Saucepan Man]

Voting thus far:

Anguirel: ++the phantom (1)
Diamond: ++Boromir88 (1)
SpM: ++the phantom (2)
Mithalwen: ++Bêthberry (1)
Eomer: ++Littlemanpoet (1)
Littlemanpoet: ++Anguirel (1)
Kath: ++the phantom (3)
Estelyn: ++Boromir88 (2)
Nogrod: ++SpM (1)
Roa: ++Diamond18 (1)
Littlemapoet --Anguirel (0), ++ Diamond (2)

Yet to vote: Boromir88, mormegil, the phantom.

Of course, anyone other than Elempi may still revoke and re-vote, although a fair few are unlikely to return.

Now, much as it would amuse me to see the phantom lynched on Day 1 of Fea’s game, he has at least made solid contributions. If not a Wolf, he may prove useful yet.

Elempi, on the other hand, has done little other than vote twice, with little in the way of solid reasoning in either case. First, on the basis of a grudge, since retracted. And second on the basis of an early declaration of innocence. Problem is, a number of villagers have made bold declarations of innocence (the phantom, Boro and Esty spring to mind). They can’t all be Wolves. And since I consider Diamond’s “declaration” to be part of the early Day 1 “banter”, I find it rather specious reasoning for a vote.

I also rather agree with Eomer that Elempi nicely fit’s the description of “person Fea would be likely to pick as a Wolf”.

And of course there is, as Elempi himself points out, the added factor that I always find him suspicious. :D

So:

-- the phantom

++ littlemanpoet

Which ties Boro, TP, Diamond and Elempi on two votes each. But, with Boro and TP yet to vote and a number of possible retractions on the cards, I don’t see that as too much of a problem. Indeed, I rather like the situation as it is quite likely that there is a Wolf among that lot.

[The Saucepan Man]

Crossed with Boro.

Updated voting:

Anguirel: ++the phantom (1)
Diamond: ++Boromir88 (1)
SpM: ++the phantom (2)
Mithalwen: ++Bêthberry (1)
Eomer: ++Littlemanpoet (1)
Littlemanpoet: ++Anguirel (1)
Kath: ++the phantom (3)
Estelyn: ++Boromir88 (2)
Nogrod: ++SpM (1)
Roa: ++Diamond18 (1)
Littlemanpoet: --Anguirel (0), ++ Diamond (2)
Boro: ++SpM (2)
SpM: --the phantom (2), ++littlemanpoet (2)

That ties five of us up on two votes each. :D

[mormegil]

Would anybody tell me exactly how much more time we have to go? I have just arrived at home after a very long and busy day at work, mainly meeting hence the inability to get to a computer, and need to see my family. If I have one hour or less I'm not sure how much catch up I can do and may just have to vote with my gut. If I have two or more hours I may be able to read some and make a more educated guess. I hope it's the latter though I feel the former is true.

[The Saucepan Man]

Had I seen Boro's vote before my retraction, I might well have been inclined to vote for him rather than Elempi. Not in retribution, you understand, but because it is accompanied by a complete dearth of reasoning ...

Still, what's done is done.

C'est la vie (ou la mort, possiblement).

[The Saucepan Man]

Morm, I believe that you have about 50 mins left to vote.

The late hour (for me) notwithstanding, and despite my votes having been spent, I may well hang around to watch this day play out to its grim end. Not least because it may be my final chance to participate before the noose is paced around my neck ...

[mormegil]

Since I don't have an answer yet and I need to go eat and see the family I will vote. If I get time to return and read I can change my vote if I deem it necessary. My gut tells me Boro is a wolf and not because of SpM's latest post on him. Sadly I haven't done the normal deep reading and analysis so there isn't any logic behind this or even a good reason, simply he feels the most wolfish to me.

++Boromir

[mormegil]

Thanks Sauce though I cross posted. I doubt I will make it back tonight. Again I am sorry.

[the phantom]

Phantom, when I re-read your posts, I received the very clear impression that you were taking every opportunity to suggest that lynching you would not be a good idea.
You continue to puzzle me, sir. The vast majority of my posts have nothing to do with my innocence or guilt whatsoever. Especially when compared to other villages I've been in. At the time you accused me of doing this, only 3 of my 16 posts had anything to do with deflecting suspicion from myself, and all 3 were direct responses to what others said. This in no way gives a "clear impression" of taking "every opportunity" to avoid lynching.

Quite honestly, I have never in my life feared lynching less. I'm neither a gifted nor a WW and given the way this game is set up I feel no pressure to overanalyze things. Basically I'm just having fun, entertaining our mod (that's why Fea invited me to play I'm sure), and hoping against hope that I am able to pick out a WW or two along the way.

Given my extremely carefree approach, you simply must understand how shocking it is to be accused of obsessing over being lynched. I'm simply not. I think you're reading the wrong posts or something, SPM.
When I said "one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me" I thought you were one of them. Have you not noticed anything today that would make you trust my words? If not, oh well, maybe it's not as obvious as I thought. I'll have to tell you what it was after this is over. You'll laugh when you hear it.
I have read your words very carefully and seen much which has given me cause for thought. In a game of Werewolf, however, it is very dangerous to take anything said at face value. As I said, you would be one of the first players on my list of Wolves capable of messing with villagers’ heads. Still, if you are messing with my head, you are doing so successfully, as this gives me reason to reconsider yet again.
Heh heh. I'm not messing with your head. This will be the last comment I make on this matter-> You should take my first post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497465&postcount=4) at face value. Especially point #5. Not because of the idea I'm trying to get across in point #5, but the way in which I do it. I'll leave it at that. ;)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

You're done now.

Boromir88, you will be missed.

Post coming...

[the phantom]

+ + Diamond18

[the phantom]

I cross-posted with you Fea. Does my vote count?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The thread says 9:59, therefore your vote made it. I'll have to take more note in the future that my clock appears to be a minute fast...

The coin has been flipped.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The village had welcomed them back, unsuspecting. The Dark Lady watched from her tower; the village had not seen their long forgotten lady, standing beautifully alone in her high window, watching the shadows of the clouds caress the fields between her broken castle and the innocent village beyond; they had turned from her power long before, and had made unconscious habit of averting their eyes from the haunting remnants of her reign.

Only one time during the day could they not escape reminder of her presence: in the latest light of afternoon, the darkest, most intense light of twilight, the shadow of her tower stretched across the land, reaching greedily toward the village, a path of early night between the Lady and her prey. She watched them, draping herself in the frame of her window, a desolate portrait of despair and hate lit by nothing, accompanied only by her faithful feathered friend, and she let the breeze carry her tainted whispers to them.

She had poisoned the innocence of two travellers. She had taken them in, had called to them as they looked beyond the gate, and they had come. They had moved forward in curious exploration, had only suspected seconds before it was too late. She had met their eyes and they had met their fates, sealed forever in the darkness of her thoughts and the regularity of the distant moon. And then, with the break of the dawn, she had sent them away.

Through their eyes she had seen the activities of the day. She had seen the village take its first, tottering steps toward its own destruction.

She had whispered words to them, and to herself, watching carefully their faces when a soundless voice greeted them, calling to them, "O, what men dare do! What men may do! What men daily do, not knowing what they do!" Her voice was silk and poison, and their eyes grew afraid, and they spoke anew, with more haste.

"I do not understand." Many shared this sentiment, and others tried to calm them.

"It is what she wants..."

She laughed long, deep inside her, and in this sudden show of humanity she seemed fiercer than before. Not all wished to acknowledge her, her dangerous presence just outside the village, just beyond its borders. Some looked toward the East, glancing away from the crumbling castle. She could not be there; of course she was not. She had left long before. She was gone. The Lady of the Night had disappeared, and it was of no bearing to assume the fear that shivered them all was her doing.

The air had grown cold and the shadows had deepened. It is just the season, some rationalized. This is natural suspicion.

"She wants us to fear!" cried those who remembered, those who had known her long before. They had had extensive dealings with the Dark Lady, and knew she was never to be taken lightly.

"She is gone!"

The accusations began. Only a day, she smiled, and they have turned on each other. Fools, unhappy fools, how you delight me.

"You work for her," one hissed.

"You do not know me, sir!" Anger. Defense. "I have never. In all my time, I have never... Why now? Why would I begin now?"

A young scholar stepped forth. "He is mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse's health, a boy's love, or an oath. We should not trust her claims."

"We will all die." The voice was grave; that of a gravedigger, echoed by many. "But first, so shall it be that we will fight."

And so it came to be that two villagers were led forth to the shadowed gallows and their eyes strained to follow the darkness to the tower in the distance, but they resisted.

The Dark Lady smiled grimly. So it begins. So it ends. So doth the play move ever onward, tinged with love, and with death. Life is but a walking shadow; a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

The villagers looked with haunted eyes upon their fellows. "You have betrayed us," they seemed to say.

"Who will die?"

All looked to the speaker.

"What mean you?"

"We cannot take the lives of more than one... it is forbidden." The gravedigger. The master of ancient lore, rememberer of forgotten poems of needful thoughts of ancestors. "So it has been written, and so it must be done. Only one will die this day."

A man stood before the crowd, and a woman. They looked to each other with fear, to the crowd with disdain. "Betrayers." they spoke. High in her tower in the distance, the Lady laughed. What comes of this will prove most cruel, she thought.

The man spoke to the village with dignified calm. "Spare the lady."

"You dare to die yourself to save her?"

"I dare do all that may become a man; who dares do more is none."

With respect in her eyes she stepped again into the warmth of the crowd, and a tear glistened on her cheek. "Fare thee well," she murmured, her eyes bright with unknown thought.

In moments he was still. The town's sociologist surveyor was gone, his spirit having fled the confines of this world. The man they killed was innocent. The Dark Lady laughed through the eyes of her pawns.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Night has begun. Werewolves, please send me your kill choices.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Moonlit darkness crawled across the floor of the tower and the Lady watched the stars. Her newest slaves were motionless upon the floor.

"You have been brave." she murmered without turning. "But you have not been wise."

They raised their eyes from the floor and looked to her.

"I gave you one task. One simple task. You were to make your way to the village and sunder hearts. As reward, each night a choice was yours."

"But we never knew..."

"You will be silent. Your blindness may yet aid you; that you cannot see beyond me in the dark may not prove your undoing. And yet it also may."

Dawn fast approached. Why had their requests been denied until now?

“My lady,” whispered one, “you promised.”

“I promised you blood to sustain your precarious lives. And blood shall be spilt.”

“My lady?” Her smile was cruel, her eyes rapturous.

The village woke to find mormegil’s corpse hanging, dripping blood into the well.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I'm starting with Diamond because of my earlier stated suspicion. After that, I'll be moving on to phantom, because he posted first, and the content of his posts seems to be in some dispute. After that, it will likely be morm, just to see why he was killed, and then the Boromir voters, for no real reason except that it's somewhere to start. Feel free to help out. I'm not too worried about a wolf distorting the facts, since they don't know any better than we do. And someone remember to analyze me along the way. I can't very well do it myself.

So then: Diamond18- Post Summary

Post 1- first day nonsense (:P), List of Grudges (Eomer and Boromir), thinks tp is a wolf because of mod

Post 2- Response to TP's remark about Esty, doesn't want to kill Esty, elaborates upon grudge against Boromir, more banter

Post 3- Offers a defense, points out that she has never been guilty, invokes "Diamond's Rule"

Post 4- Doesn't think Fea would break Diamond's Rule, mocking suggestion about ang and tp being wolves

Post 5- Thinks Nogrod has some interesting points against SPM, find's SPM's plan to tie everyone odd, wonders about him being evil or mentally unstable?

Post 6- Off the wall theory about tp being indestructible, more banter, says her lover will die if she is lynched

Post 7- Something about Fea and quote tags

Post 8- Complaint about no edit rule

Post 9- Suggests tp replace her on the list with Boromir, agrees that if Boromir is killed at night, she should be lynched, votes BOROMIR

Post 10- demands Boromir refigure his statistics since she lives in Wisconsin

Post 11- Random burst of maniacal laughter

Post 12- More calls to vote for Boromir

Post 13- remark about BD's glitchiness

Post 14- remark about late bandwagon forming for her, says she warned us, and more invocation of Diamond's Rule, saying that she wouldn't use it dishonestly, since that would break the rule

[Roa_Aoife]

Diamond Analysis

Her first couple posts are little more than first day banter, which is perfectly acceptable (especially since almost all of the villagers did the same thing.) What first irked me was her invocation of Diamond's Rule, and the defense she offered for herself, long before anyone had seriously suggested her as a vote candidate. I think I'm the least experienced player here, but a quick defense is usually a sign of a slip-up. She elaborated on this several times before anyone suspected her. I'm having a difficult time seeing this as something other than a wolf jumping the gun. She invokes it again over the "bandwagon" forming for her. In my mind, two votes does not a bandwagon make, especially since there were multiple others who had this same tally. Was she nervous? Or was she trying the old "it's way too obvious" trick?

I would say something about the dogged grudge match with Boromir, which grew exponentially as more and more people mentioned suspicions of him, and completely overran her previously mentioned grudge against Eomer, but it's almost forgivable considering the circumstances of the Day.

[Roa_Aoife]

Phantom Summary

Post 1- All votes are meaningless, kills may be meaningful, a werewolf, could kill another werewolf, strategy is limited, therefore keep strategy secret, he is not a werewolf

Post 2- Distrusts mod's honesty in coin flipping, disagrees with SPM's plan, "The only way I'd ever support your random lynch plan is if I was the favorite to be lynched." Thinks we should try to determine who Fea would pick to be a wolf

Post 3- think's Kath's grudge plan makes sense, banter with ang about grudges, can't think of any grudges that he bears

Post 4- Current lynch list: Ang, Diamond, Esty, morm

Post 5- Says he would have made Esty a WW if he were mod

Post 6- Response to Boromir about Esty, response to Ang about thoughts on Fea picking everything, says Fea could lie to us if she wanted to, says that he as a werewolf would be too obvious and predictable

Post 7- says he never committed to killing Esty today, banter about pointy teeth, banter about Diamond's Rule, thoughts on Nogrod's case against SPM, says he could spin him either way, and so will leave it be for now, banter about being an unknown wolf or indestructible, doesn't think Fea would be a third werewolf, isn't surprised at Ang's vote

Post 8- thinks that all strategy and analysis have been removed from the game, feels no pressure to win, thinks that all winning would prove was that the other side had bad luck, says he wouldn't want to be a wolf in this village

Post 9- Doesn't think Boromir is a wolf, doesn't think ruling out so many people to begin with is bad, since he wants to start somewhere, says he can't be a Fenris Wolf because he is not a wolf, and if he ever is a wolf in a future game, he won't be suspected

Post 10- Remarks on the randomness of Bb's post

Post 11- Says the randomness was probably the point

Post 12- listing of all the times he has bested Ang, new lynch list: Diamond, Morm, Nogrod, says Fea would likely break Diamond's Rule

Post 13- more grudge banter with Ang

Post 14- Doesn't know If Bb could be a werewolf, says it's possible, points out that no conditions for ending the game have been posted, says BB couldn't be one of the two werewolves inside the village

Post 15- says we can vote to lynch Fea or Bb, but doesn't recommend it

Post 16- Says he hasn't spent that much time defending himself or stating his innocence, (only 3 of 16 posts), lists them, asks people to use real reasons to lynch him, not made up ones, thinks it's unlikely that he would be picked, says everyone's logical analysis is useless, thinks SPM's reasoning is sub-par

Post 17- Thinks SPM should have realized by now that he is innocent

Post 18- says he'll be back before the deadline

Post 19- Is still confused by SPM's reasoning for his lynching, says he isn't afraid of lynching at all, directs SPM to review his first post

Post 20- Votes Diamond

[Roa_Aoife]

Phantom Analysis

First and foremost, his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me (as all such statements usually do.) This however comes from a player who claims to rely almost wholly on analysis. He seems to think that because we can't really use a vote record, and kills are very limited in usefulness, that we have nothing to go on. This just isn't true. I think phantom is too intelligent to just throw in the towel like that, so it leads me to think that this is meant to discourage the village from strategizing or analyzing anything at all. It's a theme he plays upon multiple times, starting in his first post, where he discourages the discussion of all strategy, and continues on through his implication that Fea really controls everything, and so everything we do is useless.

Of course, after all that talk about analysis being impossible, he demands that SPM give good reasons for voting for him, dismissing all previously given reasons off hand as ridiculous. And one of those "poor" reasons given was pretty close to the one reason he gave for his suspicions- that is, Fea's likely choice. He never really gave a reason for having anyone on his lynch list, except once to mention that Fea would be the one to break Diamond's Rule.

In short, he doesn't care whether or not he is lynched, doesn't think he is useful to the village, and doesn't really feel any drive to do much other than entertain, and gives little to no reason for who he suspects, yet demands better reasons for lynching him. Lynch him.

[Roa_Aoife]

Morm Summary

Post 1- Points out problem with SPM's plan, sarcastic response to phantom's declaration of innocence

Post 2- Thinks Fea is too smart to make Esty a wolf, thinks phantom is a reasonable choice for Fea, says tp will be his likely vote

Post 3- general complaint about the chaos of the game mostly relating to Bb's sudden appearance

Post 4- Response to Nogrod's opinion on SPM, doesn't think we can use such information to incriminate SPM, suggests lynching Fea

Post 5- question about time limit

Post 6- Votes Boromir based on gut feeling

Post 7- Says he won't be back (how ironic)

Analysis
This has all the markings of a safety kill. Morm didn't really suspect anyone, said little in the way of defending anyone, and his vote was for the already dead and now known innocent Boromir. The only connections to be drawn are his statement that phantom was a likely choice for Fea, his disagreement with Nogrod about SPM, and his disagreement with Ang and TP about Esty, all of with are things that others had done as well.

That's all for now. I'll be back a few hours before deadline, hopefully with more analysis.

[the phantom]

Yesterday's voting-

Ang for tp (1)
Di for Boro (1)
SPM for tp (2)
Mith for Beth (1)
Eomer for lmp (1)
lmp for Ang (1)
Kath for tp (3)
Esty for Boro (2)
Nogrod for SPM (1)
Roa for Di (1)
lmp take back Ang (0)
lmp for Di
Boro for SPM
SPM take back tp (2)
SPM for lmp (2)
morm for Boro (3)
tp for Di (3)

I almost got you there at the end, Di! :p But poor Boro got the axe instead.

I told you he wasn't a WW. I've been in villages with him before. I've been a WW with him before. I know the way he thinks and posts. He was, in my mind, the most clearly innocent person.

And in case you wonder why I chose to tie Di with him rather than lmp or SPM, it's because I'm more comfortable with those two. I have no doubt that I could much more easily pick out a WW SPM or lmp than a WW Di. I've seen less of her, plus I've never ever seen her as a baddie. As the game progresses, I will without a doubt begin to form a clearer picture in my mind of whether or not SPM and lmp are innocent (right or wrong), therefore I want to keep them around. Di, on the other hand- it's possible I will never gain a handle on her guilt/innocence.

That's why I tried to get you killed, m'dear. No hard feelings. ;)

Now I'm going to take a general look at yesterday and give a couple thoughts.

1) Mith for Beth?? Very odd. Were Fea's WWs given special instructions to create as much chaos as possible? If so, Mith's vote would fit. I'm not sure what to think.

2) I find lmp's votes slightly suspicious. Did he vote for Ang thinking he'd get a counter-phantom-bandwagon vote started? And when it didn't pan out, he threw his weight onto Di. This seems like the smart choice at this point for a WW. Don't vote for the current leaders (me-3, Boro-2), but rather elevate someone else into frontrunner status. Also, lmp's post #128 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497714&postcount=128) rubs me the wrong way. There's just something about it... the wording. It reminds me of me when I've been a WW.

3) My suspicion of lmp leads me to lean towards SPM's innocence. He did change his vote from me to lmp after all. Sauce- did lmp's post #128 make you uncomfortable as well? But I haven't completely cleared you. I'm still wondering if your statement about the rules at the beginning of the village was a ploy. The thing is, the information you gave as far as I understand turned out to be incorrect (WWs are in fact on a team according to Fea), so did you give incorrect info about the WWs so people would think "My goodness- he didn't even know the way the WW role worked. He couldn't possibly be one." But, there is also another ploy that you could've been attempting to execute as an innocent, so I'm up in the air on it. And no, don't ask me to explain the ploy (until after this is over). If I say it then I'll negate its power.

4) Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours.

5) Nogrod is innocent.

[the phantom]

his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me
Boo hoo.

I'm just trying to be realistic. The idea of analyzing WW teamwork has been removed. You can't deny that. The idea of analyzing WW kills has been muddled. You can't deny that. WWs have no way of planning nightly kills together. You can't deny that. WWs have no way of discussing strategy. You can't deny that. Without a Seer it is impossible to have concrete knowledge of innocence or guilt until death. You can't deny that.

If the villagers win, or the WWs win, it will simply make them champions of "Blind Luck". That's why I said it would annoy me to be a WW in this game. I wouldn't feel as if I had proven anything.

Not that I wouldn't try my best.

And probably win.

[the phantom]

Why was morm killed?

I can only suppose because he's a bright chap, and because there are several people here who are familiar enough with him that would probably come to the conclusion that he was innocent before too long.

He was, for me anyway, in the same boat as SPM and lmp. I want them around because I'm more comfortable getting a feeling about them than I am for some others. By day 3 or so I have little doubt that I would've had a good sense of where morm stood, and chances are I would've come to the right conclusion about him.

Along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if maybe the WWs are killing off the least random/crazy people, and will let be individuals capable of madness and more unpredictable behavior. It would make sense after all. This is a village designed to be more random than others. If this is what the WWs are doing, then Nogrod and SPM won't live long. Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.

[Diamond18]

Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.

Well, that's nice to hear. At least with my nemesis Boromir gone I can rest a little easier. (See Jenny and Sleepy's last game for details).

I almost got you there at the end, Di! :p But poor Boro got the axe instead.

You are very lucky you did not succeed, as standing in the way of my revenge would have shot you right to the top of my "to kill" list. As is, I'm not going to throw away that half completed sketch of you with various knives sticking out away just yet. :p

But seeing as how Roa wants you dead, I can hardly vote for you, can I?

Yes, in this game I'm just trying to see how annoyingly petty I can be before people lynch me for the pure frustration of it.

[Diamond18]

I do not understand Fea's narration.

Do we know if morm was innocent or a wolf?

Because, even as a wolf he could have fallen prey to his fellow wolf, right?

And I don't understand the conversation between the dark lady and the wolves. It seems to mean something. But I don't understand what.

[Nogrod]

I must agree somewhat with tp as I have had some time to think about the game dynamics here. The room for rational arguments and cases to be made are surely narrowed down considerably in this one. With this bunch of players able to stay calm/carnevalistic and capable of double-/triple bluffing it would have been pretty hard to go after the wolves in an ordinary game already. But I'd like to share Roa's optimism too. There must be something... we just have to find it. :)

Just a few minor notes as I just finished reading this opus.


Everybody works for their side to win. That doesn't specifically mean that anybody is working together.Now this seems most curious! Specifically? I don't believe that word is there unintentionally... Breaking this knot might be one way of easing our task here, possibly... hopefully...


Don't say I didn't warn you not to disregard the rule. Not that it won't give me satisfaction to say "I told you so" of course. But I wouldn't invoke the sacred rule in a dishonest fashion, that would be... dishonest. Which is evil.In a case you are wolf, you are evil anyway! Thence you are very capable of invoking it in dishonest fashion... :D

And Spm, I "jumped" on your "misconceived attempts at strategy" (as you paraphrase it) because I had nothing better to go with and still wished to have a reason to my vote. ToDay I will be much more reluctant to vote for you as I have read what has happened since I got away from this yesterDay.

But that means I have to come up with a better one in this labyrinth.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, some quick thoughts, as I must go soon and won’t have a chance to get back until later today.

I am rather amused, phantom, that you took the time to explain how unconcerned you were about being lynched as part of your continuing effort to address and dismiss my suspicions of you, particularly as I had already switched my vote from you (thus, effectively saving you from being the one who’s life would hang in the balance with Boro’s).

I am glad that I did, though. At the time that I switched my vote, my suspicion of you had lessened considerably and I am now pretty much content to trust you, for the time being at least. Re-reading your contributions overnight, they come across genuine enough and it seems to me that you were far more vocal yesterday than I would expect a Wolf to be on Day 1, particularly in this game. Your attempts to defend yourself (more, now I think of it, than I would expect from a Wolf) and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here), your contributions yesterday were some of the best, in terms of trying to flush out the Wolves.

For now, therefore, the phantom is off my lynch list. I fully appreciate that he is quite capable of giving a very effective impression of innocence, and I could be having the wool pulled over my eyes big time here (by a "Wolf in sheep's clothing"). But, even in this game, an innocent phantom is a formidable asset to the village, so I am prepared to take that risk for the time being.

I have come to the conclusion that the best strategy for a Wolf on Day 1 would have been to lay relatively low, say or do little that was controversial, but at the same time make sure that their presence was felt.

The three that best exemplified that approach, it seems to me, were the three ‘Es’: Eomer, Estelyn and Elempi. All three, I might add, are very plausible choices by Fea for Wolf, if we are working on the basis that one of the Wolves, at least, was not randomly selected.

My main suspicions remain with Elempi, since I would expect a Wolf on Day 1 to at least try to give some reasoning for their vote, to avoid being challenged for unreasoned voting. The votes of both Eomer and Esty were pretty much unreasoned, but Elempi attempted to explain his reasoning for voting for Di. And, as I noted when I voted for him yesterday, it was pretty poor reasoning. Di was far from being the only villager to have made a point of declaring her innocence before any serious suspicion was cast in her direction. The phantom (in the first post of the day) and Esty did the same, as, effectively, did Elempi and Boro.

For this reason, I also have slight concerns about Roa, as her reasoning for suspecting Di follows along similar lies. You find it suspicious that Di would invoke “Diamond’s rule” so early. Yet you make no comment about others having done much the same.

Like Di, I would welcome any thoughts on Fea's narration (as I too feel that there may be some clues there), and also her blog - which we are directed to look at by the "?". Does she perhps have something against people who wear shawls? :D

That’s all I’ve got time for now. Back later.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I, too, find Fea's narration far from understandable and must assume, since she is skilful and deliberate with words, that it is so for a purpose. Can it be that we will not find out which of the deceased were wolves or innocents until the game is over? In that case, we have no increasing chance of voting with any kind of logic as the game proceeds.

From the words of the Dark Lady, you would think that her displeasure results from the choice of one of her vassals for killing. But there is no word about the physical shape of the slain, neither one way or the other.

Though it is regrettable that I chose wrongly in voting for Boromir on the first Day, it was statistically inevitable. I have no idea yet whom I will choose toDay. I am reading the various analyses with great interest, but as I said above, I'm not sure the chances of improving our accuracy in targeting WWs will have improved toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I tend to agree with SPM. A sensible wolf would probably have found it very easy to stay out of an argument on Day One. More so, perhaps, in this game than previously — for the idea here is pretty much entirely to get the villagers inventing fights with each other. There is no banner of logic to flock to; we are each without allies on this field of chaos. It would be wise to make friends.

*anyone want to get a drink with me?* :D

As in previous games, I often want to trust those who are aggressive or who come under strong suspicion.

As for Momegil, I'm assuming he was innocent. Nogrod, at least, will see the philosophy in this. What was Mormegil? We could judge that he was the man who lived among us. If a man changes into a wolf, at what point does he lose his identity, if at all?

And other stuff about an infinite number of different rivers. ;)

Anyway, it was Mormegil's corpse found, not a wolf's. Gah! As I type I realise that past experience offers not certainty. Sometimes wolf corpses are found, but sometimes they change back to the villager after death. Nevermind what I just typed. :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Must rush away.....really late for class. Scanned the rules and see that Fea says that the wolves each pick a kill and only one gets their choice. So what if the lucky wolf picks the other wolf?

It dies, right?

So SPM was right in thinking that the wolves are each other's biggest enemies despite being on the same side. Is that what that 'specifically' is about? The wolves can die in their sleep just like the poor villagers!

Providing the wolves realised that immediately then it might tell us a lot. Morm was killed maybe because someone thought he was a wolf.

So what was wolvish about Morm? He was slightly quieter than normal but I think he was busy at work? Voted for Boro at the end....no real suspicions, like most people. Received no votes, played it as safe as he could have done.

And does it indicate that at least one wolf fits this description, sees Mormegil mirroring said description, and thinks it spots the other wolf?

Or is it bluffing? Is the other wolf the complete opposite of Morm, and wants to throw us off the scent?

Questions, questions...back later.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Somehow that quote about known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns comes to mind. (I think someone mentioned it a few pages ago - please do pardon me for not going all the way back to give credit to the right person.)

known knowns: Each player knows (at least we think we do! :eek: ) her/his own identity - innocent or werewolf. That's whatever percentage one out of eleven survivors is. If we are being given certain information about the identities of deceased players, that increases what we know.

known unknowns: Each of us knows that we do not know what the other players are. That's a higher percentage than the first point.

unknown unknowns: We can only guess that Fea is messing with our minds/being devious/who on earth knows what?!

Now only the unfortunately deceased Boromir could make a spurious statistic out of my attempt to summarize the situation so far. I've no idea if this is helpful, but I do want to give the Fellowship of the Fool Villagers whatever wisdom I can - Eru knows we need it!

[Mithalwen]

I am here but very briefly ..I have only skim read today's posts and on my reading of the remainder of Day One thought Di would be top priority ... apart from anything else she messed with my head so well in the past...

Fea's narration does suggest Morm was a wolf but better to assume we have two to find....

And Esty - it was me who mentioned the Poet Rumsfeld... btw ..


My vote for BB was half punt in response to the unknown situation ... ...half course of action least likely to cause harm....... had I been a wolf I would erred on the side of not being so attention seeking.. and not giving the rest of you an easy excuse to lynch me in absentia.

I was pleasantly surprised to find myself alive, thought I am sorry the coin flipped the way it did ... viewing the end of Day One's posts Di seemed more suspicious.

I am relieved at least neither were my among my alternative choices ...

More Later ...

[Nogrod]

Fea's narration does suggest Morm was a wolf but better to assume we have two to find....

As for Momegil, I'm assuming he was innocent. Nogrod, at least, will see the philosophy in this. What was Mormegil?Questions about the identity of the substances. Hmm... I'm afraid they do transcend our interpretative horizon as long as we are thrown-into-this-world. :smokin:

Although I tend to believe Morm was innocent. Feeling stuff. Maybe the other (the one not calling for Morm's death) was trying to kill the other and Fea decided not to kill the other wolf at the first Night?

Or then Morm was a wolf and she appointed a new one to replace him (it read, "her newest slaves"), but anyhow, that speculation doesn't help us much at the moment.

But if we are to read any hints from the narration I would say that the Dark Lady was not impressed with the performance of her minions (truism?). So were they not causing enough confusion? Were they too careful / quiet? Were they / either of them attacking / voting the other? But then again she might be as dismissive of them at the level of character too...

It would at least give some credit to the thought already mentioned by myself and a few others that the wolves might have been careful or quiet on Day1.

[the phantom]

I almost got you there at the end, Di! But poor Boro got the axe instead.
You are very lucky you did not succeed, as standing in the way of my revenge would have shot you right to the top of my "to kill" list.
If I would've succeeded you would've died, and so moving to the top of your "to kill" list wouldn't have mattered.
Yes, in this game I'm just trying to see how annoyingly petty I can be before people lynch me for the pure frustration of it.
Consider this a friendly warning. Saying stuff like that is going to get you lynched, for it confirms our fears about the WWs- that they have been ordered by Fea to be as chaotic, frustrating, and random as possible to fit with the theme of the village.

And I wish everyone wouldn't have complained about the lack of clarity in the narration. If everyone had just assumed morm's innocence (the likeliest possibility given the percentages) then someone could've matter-of-factly asked Fea to put up a tally on her opening day post. But now that Fea knows it is causing confusion, she is likely to leave it be.

Personally I believe that morm was innocent. Yes, the conversation hints at the Dark Lady's displeasure with her servants, but it seems clear to me that she is displeased with their DAILY activities, not nightly. They weren't wise during the day, and failed in their task of "sundering hearts" somewhat during the day.

And later, she says “I promised you blood to sustain your precarious lives. And blood shall be spilt.” Notice she said she was about to spill blood to sustain "lives", not "life". If she spills the blood of one of her own WWs (kills them) she would be failing to sustain their "lives" with blood, for in the spilling one of the lives would be ended, not sustained.
But if we are to read any hints from the narration I would say that the Dark Lady was not impressed with the performance of her minions (truism?). So were they not causing enough confusion? Were they too careful / quiet?
It would at least give some credit to the thought already mentioned by myself and a few others that the wolves might have been careful or quiet on Day1.
That is not the conclusion that I would draw from the narrative. First, keep in mind that the narrative may be meaningless. But if the narrative is true, then the WWs probably were not timid and quiet on day 1. The Dark Lady tells them that they were "brave" but "not wise". This leads me to believe that the WWs were in the thick of things, but possibly dangerously close to lynching each other, or perhaps dangerously close to getting themselves lynched due to their non-timid behavior.

[Anguirel]

I am around, everyone, reading and thinking, and feeling somewhat drained (though not, perhaps, as drained as mormegil, ho ho ho).

I came today determined to attempt to catch wolves and put feuds to one side. To that end, I am forced to slide to the growing conviction that the phantom is innocent. It's pretty galling, but I'm just about managing.

I think morm was innocent, purely because I think Fea would have made far more drama out of the death of one wolf at another's hands, er, paws. Unless - and this is quite a big unless - Fea has adopted the Diamantine strategy of not telling us about the guilt of the dead. This seems peculiar, though, because she specifically allows ghosts to converse with each other, implying that the dead have nothing further to hide.

I too thought Boromir was probably innocent (though guilty as anything elsewhere, ahem!) but I want to avoid the Gloating In Hindsight symptom so beloved of certain local spectres.

More quite soon, I hope.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

For some reason, phantom, your conclusion makes me think of Diamond. I don't believe her invocation of the Rule either, as there's a first time for everything, including being a werewolf.

[Anguirel]

phantom, in your, for want of a better word, analysis of Fea's narrative, you are either being misleading (no doubt in line with one of those incredibly helpful wolf-trapping ploys of yours) or, the more likely alternative, in my opinion, continuing your trend of maliciously loving mockery towards Ms. Dark Lady.

You read deep significance into lines like "You have been brave, but not wise" to suggest that a wolf, or both, was "in the thick of things" and that one might even have narrowly escaped lynching...an argument which implicates especially, as Esty noted, that naughty minx Audrey. If people start believing this stuff, you'll get her lynched as you failed to do yesterday, and if you're innocent then that's a pity, because I think Diamond is no wolf and your case is bunkum.

I mean, really. You're suggesting that not only is Fea giving us clues in the narration - a course of action that has never been successfully implemented - but that she's actually telling us in what style and quantity they've been posting lately. With the odds already so heavily agains the wolves, I find it inconceivable that the Dark Lady would weaken her entertainment by attempting such a thing.

"Brave but not wise" no more refers to a wolf's playing style than the tears on Diamond's face reflected her feelings about the lynching of Boromir.

[Anguirel]

One other thing I forgot to add - like Nogrod, I find the mention of newest slaves rather worrying. If an extra wolf was to be thrown into the mix, this would I suppose be a valid thing to hint at in the narration.

Could there be some correlation between lynched innocents and new wolves?

On the other hand, the adjective may have been chosen simply to scintillate the spines of the paranoid.

[the phantom]

I mean, really. You're suggesting that not only is Fea giving us clues in the narration - a course of action that has never been successfully implemented - but that she's actually telling us in what style and quantity they've been posting lately.
No. Remember I started by saying this-
First, keep in mind that the narrative may be meaningless.
Only after saying that did I proceed to break down the narrative on the unlikely assumption that everything in it was true and could be used as evidence.

In a normal village I wouldn't even think about using the narrative as a clue. But this is Fea we're dealing with, and I don't think she ever said anything about her narrative being strictly a narrative. Or did she? If I'm wrong please let me know.

But the fact is, in the game I modded, I made sure and announced that my narrations were not meant to be used as evidence. Fea never made such a statement. And seeing as we are blind with no guide, perhaps the narrative is designed to be our lone source of real information.

Of course if that is true then I fully expect that I have come to the wrong conclusion about it, as I'm certain Fea would use every bit of her substantial writing skills to lead us astray.
You read deep significance into lines like "You have been brave, but not wise" to suggest that a wolf, or both, was "in the thick of things" and that one might even have narrowly escaped lynching...an argument which implicates especially, as Esty noted, that naughty minx Audrey.
It implicates me too, does it not? And maybe SPM and lmp to some extent. So no, my interpretation of the Dark Lady's words was not meant to point at Di specifically.

It wasn't meant to point to anyone specifically. I was just trying my best to glean meaning from the Dark Lady's words.

[the phantom]

One other thing I forgot to add - like Nogrod, I find the mention of newest slaves rather worrying. If an extra wolf was to be thrown into the mix, this would I suppose be a valid thing to hint at in the narration.
If Fea is truly sprinkling additional WWs into the mix without telling us, then frankly she is flushing the village down the tubes and making the whole thing a complete joke. She would be ruining her own game.

I'm not going to worry about the possibility. Unless Fea tells us she is making new WWs, I'm going to assume that she isn't.

[The Saucepan Man]

Very briefly, as I should be loyering.

Can we please work on the assumption that morm was innocent and that there remain two Wolves, but no additional third one.

All this speculation is just taking up time better spent actually trying to find the Wolves.

With regard to the narrative, I do not discount the possibility that there are clues there, as the Dark Lady herself specifically mentions on her blog the possibility of hidden clues, or pointers at least, being there (ie on her blog). At the same time, she would have to be very subtle to avoid making anything too obvious and spoiling the game, in which case the chances are that we won't find it.

In any event, all this wild speculation is completely pointless. Sure, if there is anything there which you think may credibly provide us with a clue as to the identity of a Wolf, then please feel free to raise it. But all this flimmery and flammery about what the Dark Lady may or may not have meant by particular phraseology is likely to get us nowhere fast (not that we are going anywhere at the moment).

I suggest that we concentrate primarily on what our fellow villagers themselves have said and done is this village, since therein, I should imagine, lie the greatest clues.

[The Saucepan Man]

Can we please work on the assumption that morm was innocent and that there remain two Wolves, but no additional third one.I meant to suggest that we work on this assumption unless and until we are specifically advised otherwise.

Darn anti-edit rule. :rolleyes:

[Anguirel]

I will be rather irritated if the Meaning of Existence is revealed to us on a blog which my school server blocks...

phantom, your response is adequate, I suppose. I shall return in quite a long while, I'm afraid, with a summary of my thoughts and probably a vote.

[the phantom]

and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here)
Seriously? If so, that's great, so long as you don't tell anyone. Due to this possible recognition as well as a couple other things, I'm going to put you on my innocent list, for today anyway. But if you be lupine, rest assured you won't escape for long. ;)

I'm going to assume the following people are innocent for today.
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
the phantom
SPM

[littlemanpoet]

Of course, anyone other than Elempi may still revoke and re-vote, although a fair few are unlikely to return.

...

Elempi, on the other hand, has done little other than vote twice, with little in the way of solid reasoning in either case. First, on the basis of a grudge, since retracted. And second on the basis of an early declaration of innocence. Problem is, a number of villagers have made bold declarations of innocence (the phantom, Boro and Esty spring to mind). They can’t all be Wolves. And since I consider Diamond’s “declaration” to be part of the early Day 1 “banter”, I find it rather specious reasoning for a vote.

I also rather agree with Eomer that Elempi nicely fit’s the description of “person Fea would be likely to pick as a Wolf”.

And of course there is, as Elempi himself points out, the added factor that I always find him suspicious.Thou overbite of a shark.

Praytell what reasoning would you have? I am not one to go into loyerly Gobtwiddling for the sake of mere gray matter exercise.

As to "person Fea would likely pick as a Wolf", what player in this game does not fit that description?

[littlemanpoet]

2) I find lmp's votes slightly suspicious. Did he vote for Ang thinking he'd get a counter-phantom-bandwagon vote started? And when it didn't pan out, he threw his weight onto Di. This seems like the smart choice at this point for a WW. Don't vote for the current leaders (me-3, Boro-2), but rather elevate someone else into frontrunner status. Also, lmp's post #128 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497714&postcount=128) rubs me the wrong way. There's just something about it... the wording. It reminds me of me when I've been a WW.In my defense, the Precious Prism to the Eighteenth Power Protested too Prodigeously for my liking. My original vote for SPM was spleen in combination with his "if I were a werewolf" early post. That for D18 based on her unnecessary defense which struck me as likely as not as that of a first time werewolf whose nerves have gotten to her.

3) My suspicion of lmp leads me to lean towards SPM's innocence. He did change his vote from me to lmp after all. Sauce- did lmp's post #128 make you uncomfortable as well? But I haven't completely cleared you. I'm still wondering if your statement about the rules at the beginning of the village was a ploy. The thing is, the information you gave as far as I understand turned out to be incorrect (WWs are in fact on a team according to Fea), so did you give incorrect info about the WWs so people would think "My goodness- he didn't even know the way the WW role worked. He couldn't possibly be one." But, there is also another ploy that you could've been attempting to execute as an innocent, so I'm up in the air on it. And no, don't ask me to explain the ploy (until after this is over). If I say it then I'll negate its power.Since I am not a werewolf (I shall say that only once), does SPM therefore seem the more guilty? I also found his early comment on what a werewolf's strategy might/ought to be, quite suspicious, as I mentioned above.

Additionally, you mistake yourself by thinking "if I were a werewolf I would do what LMP is doing", because my typical pattern, as any who have played with me should know by now, is that when I am cantankerous it is because I have no felt need for caution. My most cautiously played games were as a werewolf and as a seer. There are no seers, and I am not playing cautiously.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

There were never, nor will there ever be, more than two wolves. If you weren't a wolf, you won't become one.

I will be rather irritated if the Meaning of Existence is revealed to us on a blog which my school server blocks... "All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages."

--From As You Like It (II, vii, 139-143)

And about those narrations... :smokin:

[littlemanpoet]

My main suspicions remain with Elempi, since I would expect a Wolf on Day 1 to at least try to give some reasoning for their vote, to avoid being challenged for unreasoned voting. The votes of both Eomer and Esty were pretty much unreasoned, but Elempi attempted to explain his reasoning for voting for Di. And, as I noted when I voted for him yesterday, it was pretty poor reasoning. Di was far from being the only villager to have made a point of declaring her innocence before any serious suspicion was cast in her direction. The phantom (in the first post of the day) and Esty did the same, as, effectively, did Elempi and Boro.
Thou metatarsil of a gnat.

Is that the best reasoning you can do? This is what your suspicions are based on? I expect better from you.

Let's see now, why might SPM say that he suspects Elempi?

- he is innocent and is trying to use loyerly reasoning in a setting that fails to give him the needed evidence, so he grasps at straws

- he is innocent and simply always suspects Elempi anyway, so is playing true to form

- he is a werewolf and has chosen his first distractor, which had worked quite well for him according to precedent, keeping the target away from him for three whole days.

Well, I'm not going to let it happen this time. I quit now.

Just kidding. ;)

SPM is just as dangerous in this game as any, whether innocent and a threat to the werewolves, or a werewolf and a threat to the village. The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy. Let us take care.

[the phantom]

Did anyone see what the Dark Lady just decreed on the planning thead?
We need victory conditions, Fea.

When two WWs are killed, does the village win?

When the number of villagers equals the number of WWs, do the WWs win?

In order to make this village completely legitimate you must provide victory conditions, for a game/competition/activity without known and attainable objectives is not a real game/competition/activity.
The response-
You'll find out who wins when there's one person left and I let you know what his or her role is.
You've gotta be kidding. :rolleyes:

Does everyone realize what this means? It's possible that by tomorrow both WWs will be dead but we will have to continue on killing each other until we're down to one final player. Or actually, what I imagine the case will be is that we'll kill until there are 2 players left after day 6 and then Fea will flip a coin to determine the survivor.

That's insane. Does this idea drive anyone else nuts?

[The Saucepan Man]

First, some thoughts on morm’s death. It seems to me that he was an excellent Wolfish choice, as his limited participation, his vote for Boro and the fact that he attracted no votes himself left little in the way of a trail. It wouldn’t surprise me if both Wolves selected him. Unfortunately, for these reasons, I think that there is little to learn from his death.

So, I have been trying to work out what other factors may help us to find the Wolves. I came up with the following:

Day 1 behaviour: Would a Wolf have been loud or quiet on Day 1? My own view is that at least one Wolf would have been relatively quiet. With such a noisy village, the likelihood was that the loudest ones would end up at each other’s throats (which is more or less what happened), so (whatever direction the Dark Lady may have given them) there was no real need for the Wolves to stir things up further. I also think it more likely than not that both Wolves would have adopted this approach, as there has been no opportunity for them to coordinate and differentiate their behaviour.

Of course, in a village like this, there are no single-liner, one-post-a-day types. However, there are a number who kept a relatively low profile, and remained non-committal and relatively uncontroversial for much of the day. I have already identified those whom I think most exemplify this modus operandi: Elempi, Eomer and Estelyn. I would add Kath and, possibly, Roa to the list but, although she was relatively quiet, exclude Mithalwen as her Bethberry vote was anything but uncontroversial.

I think overly loud behaviour was unlikely for a Wolf on Day 1 in this game. That applies to the phantom and, perhaps, Diamond.

The others fall in between.

Voting: Unfortunately, a vote for a known innocent tells us less than it would in a traditional game. For the record, those who voted for Boro fall within this category, namely Esty and Diamond (of those still living). From my perspective, Noggie also voted for a known innocent.

More important, perhaps, is the reasons given for the vote. Although, on Day 1, any reasoning was likely to be flimsy at best, I still think that a Wolf would have been more inclined to give a reason for their vote than not to do so, since unreasoned voting tends to attract unwelcome attention. Those who gave little or no reasoning for their vote were Anguirel, Diamond18, Eomer, Estelyn, Kath and the phantom. Those who attempted to provide reasoning were Nogrod, Elempi and Roa (and myself). Mithalwen doesn’t really fall into either category, given her vote for a non-villager.

Wolfish/Un-Wolfish behaviour: This is a general category to catch anything which doesn’t fall into either of the above. Unsurprisingly, I haven’t seen anything (except in so far as addressed above) which I would consider to be particularly Wolfish. As for particularly un-Wolfish behaviour, I am thinking of things that would attract more attention than a Wolf would wish to attract on Day 1. The prime example is Mithalwen’s vote. I would also include the phantom’s general behaviour and (self-servingly ;)) my misconceived initial attempts at strategy.

Dark Lady’s likely Wolf choices: This is the only other factor that I can really come up with at the moment, and it seems that it probably applies only to one Wolf. My own thoughts are as follows (although I am open to suggestions/debate):

Likely candidates: Diamond18, Eomer, Estelyn, Elempi, the phantom
Possible candidates: Anguirel, Kath, Mithalwen, Roa
Unlikely candidates: Nogrod, The Saucepan Man

I take the phantom’s point about him being too predictable/obvious, but I still think him a quite likely candidate.

Conclusion

Drawing from the above, my current thoughts are as follows:

Main suspect: Elempi
Quite suspicious: Roa, Eomer, Estelyn
Could go either way: Diamond, Kath, Anguirel
Tending to think innocent: the phantom, Mithalwen, Nogrod

Of course, I could be completely wrong, and usually am when I make these lists. And there's not exactly a great deal to go on at the moment. Still, that’s the way I’m currently thinking, based primarily on Day 1 reflections.

I’m going to look in more detail at what has happened so far today, but I probably won’t be back until much later on. Here’s a banker just in case:

++ littlemanpoet

[The Saucepan Man]

Praytell what reasoning would you have?I think that I have set out my current reasoning pretty exhaustively. It's not by any means conclusive, I admit, but, as I said, there's not exactly a lot to go on at the moment.

As to "person Fea would likely pick as a Wolf", what player in this game does not fit that description?I think that it is possible to identify those more likely than not to be selected. I have indicated my thoughts, but am open to discussion on the subject.

My original vote for SPM was spleen in combination with his "if I were a werewolf" early post.Don't you mean Ang?

I am not playing cautiously.Yesterday, I think you did.

The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy.Surely the odds, taken on pure chance alone, are now 9 in 11 that I am innocent, just the same as anyone else. Or am I missing something here? I would be dangerous (to innocents) as a Wolf, admittedly. But I am not.

You'll find out who wins when there's one person left and I let you know what his or her role is.

That's insane. Does this idea drive anyone else nuts?It would also suggest that, if two Wolves remain at the end, they will be fighting it out to see who wins. Which takes us back to my original understanding of two competing Wolves ... :rolleyes:

[the phantom]

Since our resident Dark Lady has not provided us with the usual tally, I will provide one.

THE LIVING-

Anguirel
Diamond18
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
littlemanpoet
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

THE DEAD-

Boromir88 (innocent)- bravely faced the gallows on Day 1
mormegil (innocent)- bled by the WWs on Night 2

On the subject of Fea not telling us when a WW has died, I think it is likely she will at the least tell us of the death of the first WW. Telling us that one has died will not ruin her plans for this village in any way. Telling us when both have died, however, would. And so, I fully expect to be told of the first WW death, but not the second (though she might subtly hint). That would seem to be the intelligent thing for the Dark Lady to do in order to fulfill her goals, and though she is undoubtedly insane, she is not stupid.
It would also suggest that, if two Wolves remain at the end, they will be fighting it out to see who wins.
How odd. But you're right.

I've been thinking, and I believe that if it comes down to two WWs or two innocents, Fea will for sure flip the coin and kill one. BUT if it comes down to one WW and one villager, the WW will automatically win. This makes sense. Which leads me to something else-
Which takes us back to my original understanding of two competing Wolves ...
Indeed. I totally, completely, and fully agree that if an individual WW wishes to claim victory for himself/herself it is necessary to compete with each other as well as the village, for if it comes down to himself/herself and a villager victory is assured, but if the village is reduced to himself/herself and the other WW, he/she might not survive, and being the only survivor is without a doubt the supreme honor that everyone in this village is vying for.

PS SPM- am I doing well today? Just wink if you think you get what I'm saying.

[Mithalwen]

Does everyone realize what this means? It's possible that by tomorrow both WWs will be dead but we will have to continue on killing each other until we're down to one final player. Or actually, what I imagine the case will be is that we'll kill until there are 2 players left after day 6 and then Fea will flip a coin to determine the survivor.

That's insane. Does this idea drive anyone else nuts?


No, it is what I expected after mormegil's role was not specified... Fea was unlikely ot waive the divine right of moderators . We are her Lab rats and she will want as much amusement as possible. She has waited a long time for this and was so certain on who she wanted ... she has a purpose ...... whether there is any system or code that will allow us to understand or whether we are dependant simply on luck I am not sure.

Personally I am going to roll with it....and see what happens....

[Estelyn Telcontar]

If I have seemed quiet to some of you, it is because I am playing only my second WW game (the first was a year ago, so doesn't really help me much) and do not have the practice and experience to analyze posts, behaviour, and all the factors that you frequent flyers are using. I'm trying to learn from you!

For now, the only feeling I have is about Di; it can be summed up in the quote, "Methinks the lady doth protest too much." However, those of you who are positing that a werewolf would not be as vociferous on the first day could be true.

For some strange reason I can't define, I still trust the phantom. If he really is a WW, he's a good one!

[Mithalwen]

.

And later, she says “I promised you blood to sustain your precarious lives. And blood shall be spilt.” Notice she said she was about to spill blood to sustain "lives", not "life". If she spills the blood of one of her own WWs (kills them) she would be failing to sustain their "lives" with blood, for in the spilling one of the lives would be ended, not sustained.



But you ignore the past tense ... to me that indicates that although blood would be spilt as per promise the promise might not be as expected. This game has heavy Shalespearean overtones and promises from witches are not to be taken at face value as anyone who has read the Scottish play will know.... anyway it might be more constructive to concentrate on what the rest of you were saying...since there are so many plausible possible wolves .....

[the phantom]

So, Kath, are you going to step up and start talking or are you going to continue lurking about until we all assume that you're trying to avoid saying/doing anything that would get you lynched?

Cause seriously, if I am completely unable to get any sort of innocent/guilty feeling about you by late today (or early tomorrow at the latest) I'm just going to lynch you (or try anyway).

Here's my current list as of right this very second...

Clearly innocent-
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
tp
SPM

Maybe WWs, but I am starting to form opinions on them and will make up my mind eventually-
Eomer
Esty
lmp
Roa

Maybe WWs, and I'm completely unable to form opinions on them yet-
Di
Kath

[Kath]

Judge away master phantom, I'll make no excuses for not talking. I've been following the thread as it grows, just feeling more like an observer than a player what with the Dark Lady feeding us only snippets of fact as we go along.

Lynch me if you like, I'm of little help right now. It generally takes a good three/four Days before I'm sure of the innocence or guilt of anyone, and there are some here I haven't played with often, so it's taking me a while to get my bearings.

If you desperately want my opinions though you can have them. I think that you and Mith are innocent, the reasoning for you is simply a feeling, for Mith it's the way she's playing.

lmp and Sauce and the spat between them are causing me some worry.

Apart from that I have no clear views, and none of those are exactly clear either.

[Mithalwen]

Oh yes... I wonder if there is any point in us speculating why each of us was chosen? I assume I was to be a loose cannon ... which is not something I am actively trying to be but is often a by-product of my personality ....

[the phantom]

Just keep giving opinions, Kath. That's all I ask.
I wonder if there is any point in us speculating why each of us was chosen?
Speculate away. I'm certainly not one to put the brakes on speculation.
I assume I was to be a loose cannon
Well, then you had better be a loose cannon. I can't imagine the Dark Lady being kind to someone who isn't living up to what they were chosen for.

I was chosen no doubt because my mere presence would arouse suspicion, and because I'm very loud, and because I am likely to add entertainment value. That's what we are, you realize. We are Fea's puppets, dancing for her delight.

[the phantom]

Betcha anything that last sentence makes it onto Fea's blog. :p

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, I think I was chosen mainly because I so seldom participate in WW games, the trophy bird of paradise in Fea's glass menagerie, so to speak. That keeps this game from being a collection of the usual suspects, who have all played with or against each other many times. Perhaps she thought that would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...

[Mithalwen]

Now he has stopped flirting, the Phantom has got a bit loud and annoying and I am really not sure he is making any sense ... Is anyone else out there? .....

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Perhaps I could draw on the experience of my usual stomping - umm, posting grounds to help me find my way through this confusing mess. Consider the next posts a sideline, for our amusement...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Do we really have a definitive quote on the number of werewolves by the author of this work? I know the references are contradictory, but which ones would you consider canonical? I for one think that s/he never really decided.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'd like to have two Ws, please...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm slightly uneasy about this conspicuous *wink, wink* behaviour, most obviously demonstrated by the phantom in his secret exchange with SPM. It's also something Boro did yesterday with Diamond and I think someone else did it as well.

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Hi! My name is Estelynweniel; I found this site because someone told me about the Elven name generator. I hope to learn a lot about werewolves here.

[Kath]

Well, I never thought I'd see the day but Fea's done it. Esty's flipped! :D

[littlemanpoet]

Don't you mean Ang?Oops. I did consider voting for you, but did not. I had forgotten. My bad.
[/QUOTE]

[littlemanpoet]

Surely the odds, taken on pure chance alone, are now 9 in 11 that I am innocent, just the same as anyone else. Or am I missing something here? I would be dangerous (to innocents) as a Wolf, admittedly. But I am not.Uh, yeah. 9 in 11. Oops again.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, enough silliness - excuse that excursion, but I'm trying to think of something constructive to post and I can't. I simply have too little evidence to give reasons for suspecting anyone. I can give you a summary of my gut feeling, for whatever that's worth:

known innocent:
myself

presumed innocent for now:
phantom

possibly guilty:
Di

uncertain:
Ang
Eomer
Kath
LMP
Mith
Nogrod
Roa
SPM

[Mithalwen]

I'm slightly uneasy about this conspicuous *wink, wink* behaviour, most obviously demonstrated by the phantom in his secret exchange with SPM. It's also something Boro did yesterday with Diamond and I think someone else did it as well.

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.


Yes that is one of the things that annoys me ..I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting ... but what do I know ... having announced me strange for my vote and then dismissed as being too random to be a threat to the wolves ... :rolleyes: and he has talked a lot about 50% more than anyone else last time I looked.... perhaps nature and the phantom both abhor a vacuum....

[littlemanpoet]

[Of course, in a village like this, there are no single-liner, one-post-a-day types. However, there are a number who kept a relatively low profile, and remained non-committal and relatively uncontroversial for much of the day. I have already identified those whom I think most exemplify this modus operandi: Elempi...Take it for what it's worth, and I suppose I don't really care if you believe me or not, but as I warned the mod-goddess, I didn't figure on having much time for this the last two days, and am surprised to find myself having as much time as I do today. So I was rushed and participated as much as my busy schedule allowed Monday.

[Mithalwen]

Well I am not presuming TP innocent yet...

[littlemanpoet]

lmp and Sauce and the spat between them are causing me some worry.Why? It's so typical that I would think it could easily be ranked as just about the least worrisome thing in this game.

[Mithalwen]

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...

[Anguirel]

First things first - the traditional bookish riposte to the Lady -

I have neither the scholar's melancholy, which is emulation; nor the musician's, which is fantastical; nor the courtier's, which is proud; not the soldier's which is ambitious; nor the lawyer's, which is politic; nor the lady's, which is nice; nor the lover's, which is all these: but it is a melancholy of mine own, compounded of many simples, extracted from many objects, and indeed the sundry contemplation of my travels, which, by often rumination, wraps me in a most humorous sadness.

Now, my opinions on the various candidates.

Anguirel - From the point of view of anyone else, I think I look pretty suspicious. I am inconsistently talkative, and argue fiercely only to abruptly give up. I spend a day wallowing in mania and emerge sober and restrained. I'd vote for me were I not me.

Diamond18 - Insofar as I trust anyone here, it is Diamond. Not that I trust her to be innocent necessarily, but I trust her to be characteristic of Audreyaciousness. Her punctilious remembrance of grudges could serve the village as well as impair it; in attacking her attackers, she could yet strike gold. I am strongly opposed to lynching her.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Where is the panache and the flair? Either overcommitted like me, or confused like me, or hesitant like me. I recognise the plight, but seeing it in a lupine past-master I still fear it. Though we have a tradition of werewolf-alliances, it's going to be hard keeping this one up. However, if Eomer was a wolf I would have expected him to attack the phantom, which he might have done, of course...

Estelyn Telcontar - I do have fears from this quarter, of course, but they are not overriding. Esty is self-controlled and a little acidic (I nearly said a little tart, but would not like anyone to think I were slandering her good name by accident). If she is a wolf she has early adapted to the mantle. I doubt she would have attacked morm last night; I would have expected her to eliminate a louder player, I think (although again the other wolf could have got lucky). I won't vote for her tonight.

Kath - Kath is not engaging in duels, and killing morm might be a double-bluff combined with pragmatism. She's winged home too often using such methods as she is at the moment. I may well vote for her.

littlemanpoet - very quiet and grudge-oriented, but willing to revert votes to put them to more active use at quite short notice. But his bluntness draws attention to him. If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...

Mithalwen - her Beth vote reassuringly Mithish, but I now know she is extremely good at giving that impression! In a subdued way she seems to be rather enjoying the chaos, but at least that shows frankness. Won't vote for her.

Nogrod - very muted, but he is busy elsewhere. Also Roa is not around much for him to spar with. the phantom is willing to clear him, which shows strong conviction as that spectre really does not like to dent his pride by being wrong. I am still a bit unnerved by Nogrod and think he could be lying low.

Roa_Aoife - warned us she'd appear at end and beginning - rather convenient lupine times. Has stepped into position as rugged individualist, defying phantom and therby getting reluctant respect from this young scholar. If only for that I'm tempted to keep her in and watch the blazes fly.

the phantom - Sigh. Innocent. But I confess to being really irritated by his tantalising arsenal of secret ploys and this irritation is bound to ultimately have an effect on my voting. I'd so love to see him lynched, but I keep muttering "greater good, greater good..."

The Saucepan Man - Standard text book Sauce vs LMP. Does he really think this or is he prosecuting it to fit the pattern? Turned out correct about the wolves, possibly too correct.

I am most likely to vote for Kath, Nogrod or Elempi, with the phantom hanging in as the "Anguirel possessed by rage and envy" candidate.

[littlemanpoet]

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...
Well, you'll just have to decide for yourself what it is, just like everything else about this wacko game.

Just for the sake of getting my head around things just a wee bit here:

Who I think is innocent (all gut feeling as there really, really isn't much else that can honestly be said by anybody with any certainty at all {Elempi glares at Espiem}):

Elempi (obviously)
the phantom
Espiem
Mithalwen

Who I'm not at all sure about:
Nogrod
Kath
Anguirel
Estelyn

Who I think may be a werewolf:

PreciousPrism18
Roa
Eomer

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Roa is capable of just about anything. I learned that in a certain DW game.

Diamond: she's due.

[the phantom]

Perhaps she thought that would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...
So, in other words, Fea picked you because you'd make a great WW. Thanks for the info. I'll keep it in mind. ;)

And Mith, you stupendously sexy innocent villager- how could you say I'm not making any sense? That's terribly cruel. But yes, I admit I'm being rather loud, and possibly annoying to some. But what can I say? I'm having fun. Lots of fun. Too much probably. That's what the problem is, I believe. Please forgive me. I'll try my best to be less happy in the future.
I'm slightly uneasy about this conspicuous *wink, wink* behaviour, most obviously demonstrated by the phantom in his secret exchange with SPM. It's also something Boro did yesterday with Diamond and I think someone else did it as well.

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.
Sorry, old boy, but that's the way it must be.

Sauce and I are testing each other out, you see. We're trying to guess at the ploys the other is using and aid them by keeping mum and yet tipping off the other person that we are aware of the strategy. Basically, we're wondering if we can work together, and taking steps towards building trust.

As SPM said earlier (yesterday I think), there are certain individuals that he always suspects at some point, and I am one of them. And I also suspect him in every game at some point (except the game in which I was the Seer and dreamed him on Night 1). And so, getting over this initial distrust will, for me anyway, greatly clear the air.
I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting
That's a misrepresentation.

One of the main points I started trying to get across to SPM yesterday was a point that, I believe, only he, Boro88, morm, and possibly Fea could understand, for only they have been in particular past villages with me and/or discussed particular villages with me.

I didn't feel the need to convince Boro88. He and I got onto the same page rather quickly yesterday.

If morm had been alive today you can bet I would've tried to reach out to him as well as SPM.

In addition to familiarity, another reason I was willing to reach out to him in particular was because I thought I recognized a particular ploy he was using, which made me begin to trust him.

And then when he switched his vote away from me, I thought it was possible he had picked up on a hint that I gave about my innocence, which further spoke to his innocence. And then today he voiced recognition of a ploy that I have been using.

Don't assume I don't think you're "clever" enough, lmp. You're plenty clever. This situation has to do with circumstances, not "SPM is smarter than everyone so I'm just going to talk to him and no one else".

Let me ask, do you think you are getting any of the things that SPM and I have been trying to hint at? If so, then great! And please, if you are understanding my hints then get in on the action instead of feeling insulted that I didn't direct my hints at you.

[the phantom]

Sorry, I attributed that last quote to lmp rather than Mith. I guess I was reading too fast. :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I don't want to go on 100% gut feeling at the moment; so I'll stick with around 90%.

The killer wolf thought that Mormegil was the rival wolf.

It thought this because Mormegil was playing similarly to itself. (Almost a quieter version of its normal self?)

So was anyone similar to Mormegil?

SPM: Seems normal enough. Lots of big words, attracting rivals. No.

TP: Dominating the village. No.

Diamond: Being overly silly and worrying. No.

Anguirel: Pretty standard, making me laugh in every post. Only scathing in humorous way. Possibly.

Roa: Usual detailed analysis. Probing as ever. Maybe.

Kath: Too quiet. Definitely maybe.

Mithalwen: Not cautious. No.

LMP: Cantankerous, like he says. A trick? Maybe.

Nogrod: Standard. Speaks sense. Got involved. Probably not.

Esty: Standard. Too playful. Worrying me. Not like Morm, though.

Eomer: The most similar to Mormegil out of everyone here.

My conclusion? :rolleyes:

Hopefully I lost you ages ago and you didn't see me point at myself. :p

I'll vote for Kath today, though I began the post thinking I would be voting for Anguirel. My guess (not entirely without a couple of floorboards to stand on) is that Kath, trying to destroy her great rival, smote down Mormegil because his behaviour on Day One was safe, secure, not-too-involved, and not-too-suspicious. She saw her own strategy mirrored, and thought to herself "I shall feast on wolf-blood tonight, and so I shall have the village to myself without a nocturnal danger."

++KATH

[littlemanpoet]

littlemanpoet - very quiet and grudge-oriented, but willing to revert votes to put them to more active use at quite short notice. But his bluntness draws attention to him. If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...Hmmmm..... I have tried to show some restraint, true. I can see why you would think it suspicious. Would you really like me to get downright cantankerous to relieve your suspicions? I think not; at least, not anymore, as it could be a triple bluff and be of no value. Ah well.

The Saucepan Man - Standard text book Sauce vs LMP. Does he really think this or is he prosecuting it to fit the pattern? Turned out correct about the wolves, possibly too correct.[/quote]I wistfully imagine what a game might be like in which Elempi and Espiem both play and there is not this immediate, inexplicable animosity. Ah well.

In case I am not back again today (I do have a life):

++ DIAMOND18

If nothing else, I shall be consistent.

[littlemanpoet]

Ack. The above reference to Espiem should be in quotes. Sorry for the lack of attribution.

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen - her Beth vote reassuringly Mithish, but I now know she is extremely good at giving that impression! In a subdued way she seems to be rather enjoying the chaos, but at least that shows frankness. Won't vote for her.


Chaos is my natural environment, so I think this game disconcerts me less sinceI knew it would be a magical mystery tour from the beginning. RL is so crazy this seems quite relaxing (and I must vote soonish for the ancient parent is still housebound and zimmer-framed and has been alone all day..). The fact this is so bizarre and that I am objectively probably the weakest player mean I have nothing to prove, no particular responsibility..it is quite liberating.. but I am fairly clueless...

However although I don't have the same confidence in the The Phantom and the Pan Man's innocence, I think it is quite likely that there is a wolf in his 3 likelies.

Diamond - was lucky yesterday, and new wolves are often nervously loud.
Eomer - was far too quiet for comfort.
Roa - well we all know that she is one of the players who would genuinely relish being a wolf in this scenario (morm is another which is why I am not assuming his innocence ... such a likely candidate to be Fea's choice, they have history of wolfing together superbly in my first game as mod and he is a rather less obvious choice that Roa) but too obvious? Too dangerous to discount ....

but this is instinct....

[Kath]

Oh Eomer, I only wish I really spoke like that! :D Ah well.

lmp, I see your point about you and Sauce arguing. I had quite forgotten you did that. However, that does not mean that one or the other of you is not a wolf, trying to make yourselves look normal.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Flair? Panache? Bah! Anguirel, thou shalt take off thy rose-tinted spectacles and witness for thyself the unspoken truth: the cardinal sin; the treacherous fall of even the brightest, even the happiest, and yea! even those deemed wise by all their fellows. This folly must be shackled, controlled, scrutinized and rejected by those who understand, in finality, at the end of things, that assumption itself is deadly, and a blight, and a plague, and a curse that spoils, and a beast that devours, a beast to be slain by the brave and the humble; and that one which especially concerns wit and and the joyful dance of words, and that one which especially concerns your honest friend, Eomer of the Rohirrim.

[Anguirel]

No; I will not cast away my physic but on those which are sick.

[the phantom]

The votes thus far-

SPM for lmp
Eomer for Kath
lmp for Di

Is that all? I was thinking there were more. If I missed any just let me know and I'll repost.

Note: I think it may prove to be telling one way or the other that Eomer has been all day today more than willing to assume that morm was killed because a WW thought that he was the other WW. Take from that what you will.

(also, I seriously doubt I'll be around at the end of the day)

[Anguirel]

It is painful to confess this, but I made use of a ploy recently, though no doubt one lacking the augustness of the ploytom's schemes.

I regret to say it, but I think Eomer does need my physic. He went straight for my unsophisticated Kath vote honeytrap. I didn't even have to put my vote into practice. It says a lot for the trust the noble wolf places in me.

++EOMER OF THE GAURWAITH

[Mithalwen]

Argh .. Eomer is persuasive but I am not certain of anything much .. not enough to join the Kath bandwagon.

I am very confused but one thing I am certain of is that Nogrod has been far too quiet here while being relatively active in another place where the lynching a forgone conclusion (Boro-dir is that a record?) ... he may be another who is selective about whou they deign to talk to ;) and be waitng up to fight with Roa, but..... but .... sufficiently creeped out to vote
++Nogrod

and dree my weird..

[Mithalwen]

Oh bother ...... whom to trust......

argh no time I will let this rest

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, as I don't see through the ploys and don't know the secret handshake, I can't recognize all the helpful clues supposedly being distributed. I will have to vote on the only gut feeling I have toDay, based on her overly vociferous protestation of innocence:

Diamond

[Mithalwen]

--Nogrod

++Eomer

I will throw in my lot with my liege lord in another place...

[the phantom]

SPM for lmp
Eomer for Kath
lmp for Di
Ang for Eomer
Mith for Nogrod
Esty for Di (2)

Esty- you need to revote for Di. You forgot the "+ +".

And Mith- change the vote! :eek: Nogrod is as pure as the wind-driven snow!

[the phantom]

Ah, never mind, Mith. I see you changed your vote already.

[littlemanpoet]

lmp, I see your point about you and Sauce arguing. I had quite forgotten you did that. However, that does not mean that one or the other of you is not a wolf, trying to make yourselves look normal.A very good point, and something that I got to thinking about on my way home from work.

I have a theory to propound. I am not sure I believe in it, but we surely do need an alternative to the current one that has gone THREE DAYS running without dissent. That must stop.

Fact: Feanor of the Peredhil has done her level best to set up a game that would allow for a maximum of ploy and gamesmanship as compared to logic and reasoning. The result is that if the werewolves can define "the story" according to their own interests, and get the rest of the players to accept and believe it, they increase their chances of winning this game.

Fact: There are two werewolves who at the start of this game did not know each other's identity.

Fact: Espiem floated his "how a werewolf might think" theory, which has by and large been accepted by the majority of players if the lack of opposition to it is any indication: "the wolves are in competition and are looking to kill each other".

Fact: the phantom has been doing his level best to dictate what this game is, and how it may best be understood. This is completely in character for an innocent Phantom, and is thus unlikely to arouse overmuch suspicion.

Fact: Espiem has gone into prosecutor mode, and picked out Elempi as his first target, which is not in the least unusual and therefore is least likely to arouse overmuch suspicion. This, by the way, is a reasonably effective way of getting one particular player who is known to be susceptible to defensiveness, on the defensive, and not thinking about what might really be going on. Well, maybe in another game, but not this time.

Fact: Espiem and the phantom have, as is usual for both of them, been loudest and so far, by and large, controlled the conversations.

Potential Remonstration: But this is the way Espiem and the phantom always behave.

Answer: All the better for them if they are the two werewolves.

I contest the assertion that the two werewolves are necessarily out to get each other. One werewolf may have decided to float this theory because it dawned on "him" early that this could well be the case, and would be convincing to the rest of the players. The werewolf who takes this initiative hopes and expects that the other werewolf is astute enough to notice that it may be the first werewolf who is floating these notions, and catches on, through further careful observation, that this first is indeed the other werewolf. Thus, by sheer amount of posting and control, as well as coded markers within posts, indicating what each other is doing, these two have come to a "read between the lines" understanding of who each other is, and proceed to play the game as hard as they can, trying to control it as much as they can, and have thus struck an alliance that actually runs counter to the prevailing "story" as to what's really going on.

I for one consider SPM and the phantom to be supremely capable of such a ploy and counterploy set-up, especially if the two werewolves are looking out for each other. Remember, Fea has stated that if one werewolf wins, both werewolves are considered to have won. So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

Now, everybody but SPM and the phantom, please tell me if you see any holes in my theory.

SPM & the phantom, please be so kind as to defend yourselves.

Finally, it's about time someone besides those two provided an alternative "story" to this game, and I will go so far as to congratulate myself. Phantom, you're not the only arrogant man on this board. :smokin:

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Oops! Sorry about that voting mistake - it's getting late, I guess...

++Diamond

[the phantom]

lmp- I really truly wish you had not made that last post.
So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.
Yes. You're right. Completely right, as far as I am concerned. I can't speak for SPM, but I recognized his "the WWs are in competition" statement as a ploy yesterday and have been using it as a ploy myself.

BUT... BUT.... NOT as a WWish ploy, but rather as an anti-WW ploy.

You see, one reason I was so concerned with feeling SPM out was so I could decide whether he was a WW doing a ploy or a villager doing a ploy. It can work both ways you see. You've already explained how it can be a WW ploy, but did you not think of the flip side?

As an innocent, it is to your advantage to try to establish as a fact that the WWs would want to kill each other, correct?

Don't you see? I came out in support of the "WWs in competition" theory in an effort to get the WWs to gun for each other. I didn't actually believe it for a second. If I myself was a WW NO WAY would I gun for my brother/sister.

As I said, I cannot speak for sure about SPM's intentions, but if you look back at post #182, it makes my innocent intentions clear.
Which takes us back to my original understanding of two competing Wolves ...
Indeed. I totally, completely, and fully agree that if an individual WW wishes to claim victory for himself/herself it is necessary to compete with each other as well as the village, for if it comes down to himself/herself and a villager victory is assured, but if the village is reduced to himself/herself and the other WW, he/she might not survive, and being the only survivor is without a doubt the supreme honor that everyone in this village is vying for.

PS SPM- am I doing well today? Just wink if you think you get what I'm saying.
As you can clearly see, I am latching onto what I thought was his ploy full force and at the end I basically ask him if I had caught on and was doing it right.

But now that you've spoken up, the ploy is, without a doubt, worthless. :rolleyes:

Oh, well.

[Nogrod]

I for one consider SPM and the phantom to be supremely capable of such a ploy and counterploy set-up, especially if the two werewolves are looking out for each other. Remember, Fea has stated that if one werewolf wins, both werewolves are considered to have won. So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.I would like to remind ourselves of the widely-known fact that the villagers come forwards with much more imaginative ploys than the wolves normally do execute. Also the wolves come up with much more sophisticated schemes some people might be at to cast suspicion on innocents.

This surely seems not to be a "normal game" and Spm & tp might be ones to come up with pretty imaginative stuff. But still I'm afraid lmp is overthinking it here.

Also, thus far I have an impression that those two are making actively the most sense in here even though they do not share all the points. That doesn't mean they are not wolves. Not the least. The best wolves speak sense and are thence trusted. But this far I wouldn't wish to lynch them (even though the magnitude of their posting makes the reading of this thread pretty laborous...). Naming someone innocent at this point I would call a bit hasty, but not to be lynched might do well with me, now.

The latter point I think is also more complicated than lmp considers it to be. Surely the existence of a rival wolf will interfere with any plans the other wolf would like to execute. That fits beautifully with the general dynamics of this game where all rational approaches are discouraged and partly barred. So the other one will hinder her/him and should be removed. The killed wolf has been granted bragging rights but we all would know who was it that won in the end.

[the phantom]

The voting (I think) thus far-

SPM for lmp (1)
Eomer for Kath (1)
lmp for Di (1)
Ang for Eomer (1)
Mith for Nogrod (1)
Esty for Di (2)
Mith take back Nogrod (0)
Mith for Eomer (2)

[the phantom]

In post #151 I said this-
Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours.
All right. I've let the bait dangle long enough. I will now reveal what my "trap" was.

My whole attitude about "strategy is useless" and "a victory in this game just means your lucky" was a ploy. I was trying to tick off the WWs- to injure their pride to the point that they stepped forward. You see, I was hoping they'd feel supremely insulted by the notion that if they win it wouldn't really mean anything. I was trying to poison their victory for them. Then I sat back and watched to see if anyone came out strong against my statements (acted insulted by them) and tried to argue that the village is actually very powerful and that there is a lot of strategy involved and that a WW victory would be very meaningful.

And both yesterday and today, Roa fit this behavior somewhat. She admitted to being "irked" by my statements. Her main comments are in post #114 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497696&postcount=114) and post #149 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497824&postcount=149).

But as I said earlier, it's completely possible that my trap misfired and Roa is innocent. What do you think? Is there anyone besides Roa who had an interesting reaction to my "pessimism"?

And while we're on the subject, this is another reason why I don't want to lynch SPM. He appears to have caught onto this ploy and wisely kept his mouth shut about it. From post #157-
and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here)
Oh, and there was also a secondary reason for my pessimism. By stating that my talents were useless in this sort of village and such, I was also hoping the WWs would not see me as any threat and thus spare me.

Convenient, eh? Two ploys for the price of one. :)

[Nogrod]

I still believe that at least one of our wolves has been moderately careful so far. Anyhow, as usual the loudmouths are more prone to make mistakes or slip in the middle of their huge posting one Day or another and therefore they are easier to catch than the more careful ones who concentrate on not leaving tracks.

We have no one-liners here, thank the supreme Moddes for that. But still there are different styles of play and different amount of notice different people receive. A wise wolf would take that into account. That does not say that there isn't a loud wolf around. It's more likely that there is one.

But as we can only pursue limited number of candidates at a time as our personal time is limited, I'm going to look at those who have not aroused so much attention so far toDay (well, the next hour or so after which I have to turn into bed). I've always approoved a bit more involved villagers than reserved and too careful ones. With the first you can argue and find points from, but the latter just skip under the radar and make the endgame painstaking in a not-fun sense (at worst pure guessing)...

Also I think it's just fair to reward those who invest time and effort to the game (at least when you have to more guess than reason your votes). I myself have not been the best example of that involvement this far but my RL has been overtly hectic (the other game has not been so time-consuming in the end). From toMorrow onwards I will be having considerably more time to invest in here, so if I'm among living still then, I will surely get more involved.

(nb. this last one here just because a couple of people have thought me oddly behaving or/and suspicious as I have been so quiet and not-involved)

[Anguirel]

Don't lynch Diamond.

Eomer, if I have wronged you, I am sorry, and if not, I am sorrier for your lamentable descent into the lupine maelstrom.

Good night.

[Nogrod]

I just couldn't resist commenting on tp's last post.

tp, you seem to be (again) on the loose with all these ploys... You had two in your last post "confessed" and your insistence on my innocence can't be interpreted as anything else than one more. Although I'm not sure what you would like to consider as a positive or negative comfirmation on behalf of my reaction to that... :rolleyes:

These ploys of yours surely are entertaining and at their best they can produce results. I'm the last one to condemn good ploys as such. But aren't they also - with these quantities - a nice veil to let you say this and that, run around to your enjoyment and comfort everyone that you are safe and sane behind the mask, just thinking about the best of the village? I mean sometimes it looks that you are flip-flopping more than Lommy at her best. Wouldn't an intelligent wolf do just that? Gain trust with the general air of her/his effort so that people do not pay heed to the things s/he says even thoug they may every once in a while (when s/he succeeds) result in lynching of the innocents? And any misfired cases could always be explained away as mere ploys... I know you do this ploy-stuff when you're innocent but that wouldn't hinder you for doing them as a baddie too. :)

[the phantom]

I don't have time to say much. I'm leaving and will be gone the rest of the day.
and your insistence on my innocence can't be interpreted as anything else than one more
Nope. I just happen to think you are innocent.

As to the rest of your post, all you are basically saying is that if I were a WW I might act like I am acting now, and that if I am innocent I would also act like I am acting now. My only response to that is "yes", as it is simply a statement of fact and nothing more.

Since I must vote now I'm just going to follow Ang (who is obviously innocent) and vote for-
++Eomer of the Rohirrim

If new evidence arises that makes him look innocent, then by all means cancel out your votes for him, but don't expect me to, for I will not be present for the rest of the evening.

Good luck.

[The Saucepan Man]

I do not recommend lynching Esty today. Her "Werewolf in the style of BD forums/for a/forumdirrim/forum-tee-diddle-dum" was far too amusing to let her go just yet.

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.Me too. I have no idea what the phantom is on about most of the time. I’m mainly just humouring him. ;)

And yet ...

For some strange reason I can't define, I still trust the phantom. If he really is a WW, he's a good one!If he were a Wolf, he would undoubtedly be a good one, and this game in particular would be a dream for him. However, I am increasingly of the view that he is not a Wolf. I still have this residual fear that I am being taken for a fool in this matter, but I’m going to go with my instinct on this one. For now, at least.

I know you do this ploy-stuff when you're innocent but that wouldn't hinder you for doing them as a baddie too.That is undoubtedly true, but I can (and did) see the sense in what he was trying to do. I didn't catch on to his "strategy is useless and a Wolfish win will be based on pure luck alone" ploy exactly, but I certainly recognised it as an attempt to elicit a reaction. There may well be something in Roa's reaction to it. That said, her reaction was pretty typical for her, whether guilty or innocent. Worth bearing in mind, though.

I am very confused but one thing I am certain of is that Nogrod has been far too quiet here while being relatively active in another placeI suspect that if Noggie were a Wolf, he would have been much more active here.

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.Quite the most sensible thing that you have said all game. I don’t trust him either.

Eomer’s analysis of morm’s death and his implication thereby of Kath does make some kind of sense. But, since morm was such an obvious Wolf-kill, I suspect he may be reading too much into it, quite possibly deliberately so. And now Ang tells us that it was prompted by his "honey trap". Hmm, I rather think that Eomer’s idea (whether genuine or false) had been simmering rather longer than you allow for it, Ang. That said, the fact that he put forward this rather unnecessarily elaborate theory does further arouse my suspicions of him. Overly elaborate theories always arouse my suspicions of those who put them forward.

Which brings me to Elempi ...

lmp and Sauce and the spat between them are causing me some worry.Well, it’s not really a spat. I find him suspicious and he finds it tiresome that I should find him suspicious as it is so passé. I find it rather tiresome too, in fact, but suspicions are stubborn blighters once aroused.

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...It wouldn’t surpise me. I am a veteran of such futile struggles. And yet …

If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...That worries me too.

SPM & the phantom, please be so kind as to defend yourselves.My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

Don't you see? I came out in support of the "WWs in competition" theory in an effort to get the WWs to gun for each other. I didn't actually believe it for a second. If I myself was a WW NO WAY would I gun for my brother/sister.

As I said, I cannot speak for sure about SPM's intentions, but if you look back at post #182, it makes my innocent intentions clear.Well, I can speak for my intentions. My original idea about the Wolves being in competition was genuine, as I did believe that to be the case at the time. I still do, to an extent, given what we have been told since. But I did also have the intention of trying to get the Wolves at each other’s throats, since that could only be to the village’s advantage.

The fact that the phantom picked up on this and supported it, even though he did not fully agree with it himself, only reinforces my view of his likely innocence.

But now that you've spoken up, the ploy is, without a doubt, worthless.Not as far as I am concerned. I still firmly believe that both of the Wolves wish to win this thing as the surviving Wolf (and, if they do not, they should). As long as the other Wolf is around, that doubles their chances of being killed (by night as well as by day) and potentially interferes with their choice of nightly kill.

I am rather inclined to view that finely wrought but (ultimately) implausible and potentially damaging theory of yours as a further sign in your guilt, Elempi.

Any more ploys I should be looking out for, phantom, or are you all ployed out for now? ;)

[Nogrod]

I have no time to make an all around -scan here so I'll stick to those still alive and who received no votes on Day1 (by my "the careful wolf on Day1" suspicion)

Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife

On the following I will not include any judgements of myself as that is the task of you others.

On Day1 / basic points
Of these the safest game was played to my eye by Eomer, Estelyn and Kath. To my opinion they would make excellent Fea-choises for a wolf too – as would many others, that admitted.

Mith’s vote for Bb was a risky one, maybe too risky for a wolf (even if it didn’t result in any actual votes in the end). I will exclude her from this notion onwards.

Roa played somewhat as she normally does. That might be interpreted “safe” in a way, but she at least threw her neck in and got involved. And tp: Roa is a firm believer in reason and arguments, just like you seem to be – and as I am. Unfortunately we are put in the test in this game as the room has been narrowed quite considerably.

If we add to this the voting, I think that the wolves would not like to spread the vote in the last moments / would be inclined to cast early votes. But basically, if anyone else than them is gaining votes a wolf would like to add gathering votes to that one / those ones. The wolf acts alone now and the situation differs a lot from a normal game: all the usual “bandwaggoning principles” don’t hold here. It’s harder for us to read and thence easier for the wolves to join as they do not need to care about any connections as there are no (we can’t speculate whether X knew what was the status of Y as no one here knows but her/himself and if the lynching of another wolf might be a positive thing for the other - so everything goes for the wolves as long as it's not themselves).

So of those possibly not-notified, it can be gathered:
Eomer gave an easy and early vote for lmp.
Kath went to give tp his third vote, explanation: random but biased.
Estelyn brought Boro up to two “based on several next-to-nothings”.
Roa spread the vote giving Di her first for over-defenciveness.

Paying heed to my theory about the wolves preferred voting style, that would make Eomer, Kath and Estelyn look the most suspicious ones.

On Day2
Eomer has mostly sticked with making arguments that frame himself, but also made a reasoned list of people based on a principle, having a row of sorts - pretty tongue in cheek for his part - with Ang.
Kath has been quiet and defended her quietness with the reason that she will only gear up on Day3-4. Very convenient for a wolf if we should all wait.
Estelyn: “Perhaps she (Fea) thought that (I, Estelyn) would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...” after that lots of fun.
Roa continued with typical Roaishness. As on Day one. No clear read-outs there. She would act the same anyhow. I'm the last one to come forwards with open trust on her but really that does not ring any alarm-bells with me either. And about what both tp and Spm have been suggesting, she might be strict with her honour but in any case would defend logical argumentation and grounded votes over anything even suggesting randomness, and do it fiercely. Trust me, I've played with her a several times.

Eomer made again an early vote (decent guy, goes to bed early...) for Kath in concerto with his mirror-theory about Morm's death.
Esty brought Di to two.

To conclude:
- Roa I see as playing herself. That is both a good sign and a worrying sign. You just don't know about her. Not my vote toDay, anyway.
- Esty, if played only in one game so far, I will truly look at her with not a lynch in mind toDay, even though I must agree with the few that she would make a first-class Fea-pick and her actions might be easily seen as a careful wolf's deeds.
- Eomer has been a bit weird but then again he has been making some actual points and sticked with them toDay. Nevertheless much more tame and easy that I would have expected. Self-condemning moves might also be pure Eomer(-wolf).
- Kath has been so reserved. As she so often is in the beginning of the game. But I have seen her conquer with that style before, just from too near... :rolleyes:

I will go for

++ Kath

She has a self-defending armour of not being of any use in the first Days. And she seems to stick with it. It might be honest, but I have seen her use it to her advantage too. It is no good if some people are let to live Day after Day just because they will be possible assets later - thence giving them peace over the maddness of the first Days also when they are baddies. Also her vote on Day1 followed the line I thought the wolves might wish to do.

tp, I know your point about just stating the fact (it might be or not) truly applies here too (as with yourself). But with this little to go for with anyone in these time-limits I would rather not see a sneaky wolf under radar.

I'm deeply conscious that I'm also giving a second vote to someone toDay... But that is the best I can come up with at this moment. I need to sleep now.

[Kath]

Nogrod, I don't dare to proclaim that I will become useful in later Days, just that I'm more likely to be helpful then.

I must say I do like lmp's theory that the phantom and Sauce are our two wolves. I can quite see Fea coming up with that little scenario, confident that both of them can talk their way out of anything and gaining a huge amount of amusement as they do just that.

I think I'm having a lazy day, more inclined to go with the thoughts of others than my own. Still, there is that niggling feeling that phantom is innocent. So, with apologies for my inability to take this seriously right now and a half-hearted promise to do better in future:

++ESTY

For spamming the thread. :D

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa - well we all know that she is one of the players who would genuinely relish being a wolf in this scenario

It's absolutely true. I was really hoping to be a wolf in this village, and I genuinely thought that's Fea invited me in the first place, since that pretty much the only way I've distinguished myself at all in werewolf. (Let's face it, as an innocent I'm mediocre at best.) I love being on the evil side, and I'm happy to get it more often than most. As to whether I am or not, well, I could go on about how Fea didn't choose me, but it would be silly and fruitless. Besides, you'd only have my word to go on, and nobody trusts me anyways. (See above note about being generally evil.)

As to my "convenient" schedule, I'm "conveniently" either sleeping or at work during almost the entire day. I'm a pre-school teacher. I have no computer and even if I did, I couldn't take my eyes off my kids long enough to do anything with it. So, the beginning and the end are the only times of Day which I can be around. And if you suggest I lose sleep to play, well, I dare you to handle a room of 9 one year olds by yourself with no sleep. Really, it's the children who suffer...

Also, bah to people and their traps. BAH, I say! If you're intentionally acting in a suspicious manner to catch a wolf, why shouldn't an innocent also find the behavior suspicious and label you a wolf?

Also, bah! to phantom and his trap. Anyone who's played a game with me will know that my first responses are to people who sit around and say "Day one is so useless, we have nothing to go on, oh woe is me for I simply can't just look at what people are saying to figure out if they're condradicting themselves, or going along with the flow, or anything else that's suspicion warranting, blah, blah, blah." It's what I do. Innocent or wolf, these poeple just irritate me. Anyone who claims there's no point to analysis has always found me as an ardent opponnent to that claim. So your trap misfired and caught a hot headed, argumentative, know-it-all. almost as bad as a wolf, but not quite.

Also, LPM's point about phantom and SPM being possible joint werewolves who have discovered each other, as it were, is something that had occured to me myself as I read further through the day. (And it gave me the willies.)

Certainly, it's a possibilty, but I wouldn't say it's as end all as he makes it sound. I can well understand where he's coming from. However, one hole I poke in the "the werewolves are definitely not gunning for each other" theory, is this- as a werewolf, I've never had a problem sacrificing my teammates. I know multiple people here who have done the same thing. Knowing full well who my teammates are, I go after them if they're suspicious, and I leave them alone if they aren't. It's much easier for a wolf in this game to do the same thing, when they can just focus on finding suspicious behavior and exploiting it, not caring if they lynch their comrade or not. They don't even have to pretend that they're really figuring it out for themselves and didn't know any better all along. My reaction to SPM's theory was a "Well, duh, why not?"

I have more analysis to do, but I doibt I'll get through them by the end of the Day. I will do my best, though. And in case I don't return:

++Diamond18

Because of what I've already posted, and because I have nothing better (yet).

[Roa_Aoife]

And I don't like your hair. :p

[littlemanpoet]

Which brings me to Elempi ...

Well, it’s not really a spat. I find him suspicious and he finds it tiresome that I should find him suspicious as it is so passé. I find it rather tiresome too, in fact, but suspicions are stubborn blighters once aroused.

My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

I am rather inclined to view that finely wrought but (ultimately) implausible and potentially damaging theory of yours as a further sign in your guilt, Elempi.There you have it. I am now convinced that Espiem's suspicions of me have less to do with the facts of this game and more to do with his inclinations. Therefore I'm done engaging Espiem as nothing I say will affect his inclination. Attack away, Espiem, I'm more than tired of it, and will not engage. You see, this is a game, and games are supposed to be fun, and this has stopped being fun. Okay, moving on.

As I said at the head of my theory post, I wasn't sure I believed my theory, and what has been said tends to reinforce that the phantoms was speaking the truth, which does not, mind you, make him pure as the driven snow; more like pure as roadside snow in March. I guess I'm just not used to innocents, IF he's innocent, being more devious than (or as least as devious as) the werewolves. I guess I've learned something then. Thanks. Be that as it may, I'm going to follow through on the one thing that has gotten corroboration from a number of fellow players, and that is the suspiciousness of Eomer.

So my vote is changing based on these corroborations:

--Diamond

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Roa_Aoife]

Borrowing phantom's list:

SPM for lmp (1)
Eomer for Kath (1)
lmp for Di (1)
Ang for Eomer (1)
Mith for Nogrod (1)
Esty for Di (2)
Mith take back Nogrod (0)
Mith for Eomer (2)
Phantom for Eomer (3)
Nogrod for Kath (2)
Kath for Esty (1)
Roa for Di (3)
Lmp takes back Di (2)
Lmp for Eomer (4)

I have to say that I'm not terribly convinced of Eomer's guilt, and I'm still not sure why everyone is voting for him. Certainly if he comes out innocent, I'll be far more wary of the people who seem to have jumped in quite suddenly. (And phantom, I'm not buying that "ploy" routine for this one. Not that I was buying it before, but I'll more than just ignore it.)

[Diamond18]

And I don't like your hair. :p

Buh.... my hair? You don't like my little tiara? *sniffles*

Alright, I'm in the throes of backpain and all Adviled up, and I just sat down at the computer at 8 PM to find a veritable slew of posts to read through. Gods, you people are vociferous. I have to admit that I started skimming because you all lost me somewhere on the last page.

I have no idea who the wolves are. I have very little idea what's going on. I hurt. I'm useless, I know it. But I can't do anything about it today, since there's no way I'm going to make head or tails of all these posts in 20 minutes.

Phantom, you needn't warn me about my behavior being lynchable. Go back and read that phrase of mine which you quoted, interpreting it in its most literal sense, and you will find that warning me aginst such an endeavor is fruitless. :p

At any rate, I'm not a nervous wolf. You'll never find out if I'd make a good wolf or not, and I need hardly say why.

Okay, but I will. This is my last Werewolf game for what I think will be a very long time. I'm only in this one because it's Fea's game and I could not miss it. I'm an innocent -- and I drew all that attention to Diamond's Rule because I'm looking back on my career from the standpoint of one saying goodbye. This is it. I'm innocent, always was, always will be rememebered (if remembered) as being perpetually clean as the driven snow. If a little wicked at times.

Looks like it's me or Eomer toDay. And, what ho, Eomer was the other chap on my grudge list of two!

++Eomer

I'd vote for myself if it wasn't Eomer on the chopping block across from me. Too good to pass up. ;)

[Roa_Aoife]

Buh.... my hair? You don't like my little tiara? *sniffles*

Nope, always hated it, always will, though I'll certainly miss seeing it werewolf games. ;) (Even though I probably won't be around much myself.) It would be such a shame to find you really innocent and having never known the pleasures of being lupine.

[Diamond18]

I channelled all my evil energies into the two games I Moderated. :)

If you ever see a picture of Daffy in a tiara, do be sure to send it my way. :D

(Now I'm going go whimper in the corner and curse the day I decided to lug heavy boxes of books around whilst wearing heels.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Day has ended. Eomer, love of my life, you shall be missed. :cool:

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

They all knew. They could no longer deny her renewed - her deadly - role in their lives. They could do nothing... only pray, and only play along. They heard her whisper once again upon the wind, the whisper of insanity, a desperate artist, a sweet, sensual, maniacally disturbed and nightly composing the lives of her subjects as those within a play, murmuring softly to herself in the moonlight that her world, the world of these fated villagers, the world of these poor souls, was nothing more than a stage, with them nothing but players, each with a role to carry out, a part to play, and an exit to be written and performed. The long despairing village tried their level best to discount her... she was there... it would help nothing to dwell on her madness, yet others saw there could yet be method to it. They could not fall to endless tears... not yet... there was time. The Dark Lady had not yet won... so long as a single innocent soul survived, she could not win.

They reasoned, or tried. The friendships of a lifetime crumbled as accusations were slipped like silver daggers through the air and into innocent and guilty backs alike.

One name, just one, was spoken with great surety, and he that bore it tried, oh how he tried, and his words were beautiful, and his fight glorious, and his death utterly tragic.

"Traveller, you are new to us," spoke a man. "You met us with the evening and left us with the dawn, only to return again."

"I left," he responded, voice in dream, "to see my lady love."

"Is that so?" The village was afraid. Short-tempered. Uncertain. Cruel.

"Yes." He spat at their feet, glaring eye to eye, standing tall in the late afternoon shadows, and his skin burned gold in the sun.

"And where did you go, to see so fine a lady?" Merciless. He was finished. This had no meaning. Merely play. Torment. What answers would he give? What could he say to tell them what next they should do? Who amongst them would no longer be, once dawn broke the horizon and slowed the power of the Lady in the Tower? Could his next words have meaning? They wondered, and they prayed, and they knew they could not be certain.

He stood and shivered slightly, and his eyes became distant and he was silent 'til a stone flew through the air, whistling in the silence, and kissed his forehead with crimson affection. He glared, feeling no pain, and his dark eyes now glowed brilliantly in the twilight of evening.

"You would dare to doubt me my affections! Weak fools, you all," he seemed to grow suddenly in stature, and they withdrew in fear. "You would wilt in her presence, in her gaze, in her dark gaze, for my mistress' eyes are nothing like the sun. Her hair is midnight and her skin moonlight, and all I have is hers and she has me."

He rose, madness in his eyes, and attacked with bare claws, with wild abandon to defend himself from their hatred.

The single string music of a bow, the whistle of the arrow, the dull drum thud of impact, and he fell. HIs blood pooled around him and his lips parted, and once more, for the last time, he spoke, and it was with endless sadness as his last strength drained from him, and his eyes saw clear again, and he tried only to explain, to apologize, to ask them to understand. "My only love," he begged with final breath, "sprung from my only hate."

As her slave lay dying, the Dark Lady, high in her chambers, laughed to the sky.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

She came to him as he slept and they spoke, and he was afraid, but he stood tall on the cemetery bank upon which the moonlight slept sweetly. He heard no voice, but words made themselves clear to him, and her gown billowed in an unseen breeze, and her eyes were dark and colder than the soulless shadowed sky.

"What is this," he asked, and could not hear his voice, "which I see before me, speaking words I cannot hear with lips that move no more than the frozen stars that light us and call lie to this place? Come, let me clutch thee. I have thee not, and yet I see thee still. Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible to feeling as to sight? or art thou but a shadow of the mind, a false creation, proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?"

"Tell me, poet, what you think you see."

"A lady - a spectress of deceit - a fearsome creature of the night. And..." he paused, sighed, "I glimpse before me that which will end me." The village slept, and the unhappy spirits slept uneasily in their graves, and the gravedigger dreamt of his death, and in his dream a child screamed, and a red-haired man looked blindly to his past, and a hound howled; and they returned to him, and a woman wept; and he heard the faint tap dance of rolling dice.

And when they woke at dawn, as though from enchantment, the village looked in resigned sadness upon the body of the gravedigger, lain carefully, with no signs of struggle, within his own grave, pale and peaceful, and a headstone lay upon the ground above him, and it read, carefully carved, 'To sleep, to risk to die... perchance in dream.'

[Diamond18]

I know it's early, but The Dark Lady said we could post, so....

I cannot express in mere words how happy I am that Eomer was a wolf. There's a bit of revenge I can lay to rest. I am almost sure that he was the hand picked wolf, I mean, he was the love of her life, eh?

But Elempi, why Elempi? I thought he was gathering some suspicion, enough to keep him alive. Hmm. I shall have to ponder this. After television, of course.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ah, the death of LMP. Why? To throw the obvious suspicion on SPM? Or to throw suspicion away from him?

*sigh* Back to my analysis, though they seem to be going unused. I was held up at work, so it's going to be a little while yet.