Admin thread to WW XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

hmmm. . . I want to dismiss any sugestion of me being manipulated, but of course you guys probably influenced my judgment. At least I cannot completly dismiss the theory.

I belive that my motivation was my own, but I suspect that you guys could have enhanced this motivation and I guess that is also the way a wolf wants to influence people.

[The Saucepan Man]

hmmm. . . I want to dismiss any sugestion of me being manipulated, but of course you guys probably influenced my judgment. At least I cannot completly dismiss the theory.Well, it was our job to try to influence and manipulate opinion. Whether or not we succeeded with you, I cannot say, but the results were consistent with our intentions. And, since we were the "bad" guys, we will take the credit. :p ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

Been reviewing our Nightly discussions and just wanted to post this, from my first PM on Night 2:

As for our Queen’s list, it looks like we have a pretty astute Cobbler. Two out of four ain’t at all bad on Day 1. Hence my feeling that it might be Mith. Obviously, we can discount the two “unknowns” listed (unless they are playing mind games with us). My original thought, as Day 1 had progressed, had been Manwe, but I hoped not as I had defended him rather too much. Now, I doubt it’s him, since a Cobbleresque Manwe surely wouldn’t have gone so strongly for Nogrod if he thought him a Wolf. So, my current thought is Mithalwen (and I’m also factoring in here her early mention of the Cobbler). Lalaith is another possibility. And a further thought just struck me ... Roa? Another possible explanation for her defence of Nogrod?Although my initial instinct was to kill Roa on Night 2, I ended up in the same post in which I proposed killing her, thinking her a possible Cobbler. I became more and more sure of this as I reviewed the Day 1 posts, and so was not greatly surprised by Rikae's reveal. Had we not gone for Rikae on Night 2, I would have suggested Nogrod as our target. Which might have affected things significantly, as Rikae would then have dreamed of aomeone else on Night 2, possibly one if us.

I should add that I thought that you did a great job Rikae. Not only did you deliver the village the Cobbler, but you allowed Nogrod a platform from which he became a very tricky customer for us.

I would also add that, quite apart from the fact that I somehow became the principal alternative, I did think lynching Roa to be a good thing for us on Day 2. Had someone other than either Rikae or Roa been lynched, we would have been left unsure whether our target, Rikae, was in fact the Seer. That said, I would also have voted for Roa had I been innocent, despite the well-put arguments to the contrary.

[the guy who be short]

The best tack to take with this might be to look at those who he hardly mentioned and who didn't mention him, for example, Hookbill and Kitanna. It might also be used against Mithalwen.Durelin and Hookbill managed this expertly. I can't believe Gil got lynched after our dual votes the day I died. Nice manipulation of my words, Faithfuls (and misguided innocents).

[Gil-Galad]

i think the major reason why you faithfuls didn't kill me off was because i was gaining more and more speculation

[Lalaith]

If it hadn't been for my one big blind-spot, this would have been one of my best games. (Speaking on a purely personal level) I began suspecting 3 out of the four wolves on Day three, and never really stopped suspecting any of them. I don't think I've ever had such a successful spotting rate. And my instinct for trustworthy individuals was almost perfect.

Almost. The blind-spot was of course Legate, and this was the fatal flaw in my entire game. ...that, and of course the fact that I too quickly became too discredited and suspected a player for anyone except Noggie and Lommy to listen to me....sigh...

[Thinlómien]

But even though I was a Fenris the only time I have been a wolf, I will never ever complain about how difficult it is to be a wolf since now I know how is it to be the hunter! :p I mean, the balancing between shouting your suspicions aloud on the thread and trying to get them lynched and having them on your list is just something that does not suit me. I'm too honest for that. :D But trying the role was great fun and I'm very surprised how accurate I was in general.

That last list of mine... Argh.
Anyway, I'm glad that Mith wasn't a wolf since I changed the second on the list from Mith to Hookbill. Durelin and Legate... Your doubting comments about the SPM lynch saved you. I thought it would have been too bold from both of the wolves to express doubt about their fellow's lynch... And obviously I was wrong there. So even though I had been suspecting both of you that eased my suspicion fatally. And as I was fairly sure of Kitanna :rolleyes: and concerned about Hookbill slipping under the radar and about some of his statements I put them on my list. (When faced by a fleeting doubt I told myself: "Well, Durelin or Legate or Mith they might lynch the next day...")

Oh, and this made me laugh so much:
Lommy may take his place in some respects, but she is at least more reasonable.
I've actually noticed that when the big guys (meaning noww extremely vocal, reasonable players that tend to takethe lead) that I agree with me are dead, I kind of pick up some of their arguments and suspicions that I've found reasonable along the way and start grilling some unfortunate people with them extended with my own theories...

But that was truly a lovely game and you wolves were plain masterful!

[Thinlómien]

I must say how dumbfounded I was when Lalaith made her suspicion list and listed only me and Gil as the innocent-looking ones.

(That was actually one of the reasons I trusted her so much, I thought she had spotted our alliance and as we weren't dead soon I thought she must be innocent.)

But Lal, was that just hunch/general feel or did you guess we were the remaining gifteds?

And what should have been in the ramble of the last post, I must add that I almost feel like having a ww-pause until I get a net access home... the lack of it was especially frustrating this time!

[Durelin]

Abridged version of the Night Six...

Night Six

The Ranger/Hunter pair, after toDay - I hope I am not assuming too much, or that I am not mistaken - but if I am not, it is either Kath&Gil-Galad or Mith&Hookbill.

I think trying to go after the Ranger at this point is the best we can do. Besides that, I do not believe there is anything tracing Kath back to either of us.

Kath is probably a good choice for a kill. Lommy is too, but she might be a little riskier...

Now it struck me. Gil-Galad probably really is the Hunter. He always mentions "moving someone higher on his list", and he posts quite frequently a list of people. Which, I think, is just what Hunter should post to the Mod - maybe he posts it even outside to acknowledge his Ranger comrade (Kath). Okay, maybe it's nothing. But anyway, I think it is the best if we get Kath

Well, I still think for toNight that Kath is a good choice. Lommy and Gil I would like to get rid of soon...

Hmm... hopefully toMorrow, vox populi will go either against Gil or Hookbill... or Lalaith... or someone else, after all, this doesn't matter that much now :D At present time, there are not many votes needed... we can sway the things more to our cause, though of course I'd possibly avoid obvious cooperation if it is not needed...

[Durelin]

Abridged version of Night Seven... Legate should post the entirety of his VERY LONG hunter pondering PM. It was just amazing. The amount of work and thought he put into that...insane. I wasn't sure if you'd want it all shared, though, Legate, so I've only shared small (very small by comparison) pieces.

Night Seven

I don’t have anything from my first PM that Night, but I know I was pushing for the killing of Lommy.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

That was some move, Durelin!!! The village nailed it! We couldn't've done better ourselves!!! I managed to run here literally in the last minute only to see the result of toDay's work! Wooohoo! Great, great, great! Let's open the bottle of champaign...

I'm gonna double-check it now. I guess the Hunter is not among the people who voted for Gil, so neither Hookbill, Kitanna nor Mithalwen is the Hunter, possibly (unless it is some sort of double trick, which I doubt).

The remaining are Lalaith and Thin.

Lalaith is a bit of a danger to me, but don't think she's enough of one to overly worry about it, and I certainly don't want to get caught in a Durelin killed Lalaith situation, even if people might see it as a "framing."

I think it possible she could get lynched toMorrow. If not, though...she should at least be our next kill.

*******PREMISE: AVOID THE HUNTER*******

Lommy, later:
I disagree with Gil-Galad who says that the faithfuls are most probably sticking together at this phase. I'm almost sure that yesterDay (or even the Day before) there was at least one faithful-on-faithul -vote. That statment actually makes me slightly wary of Gil: it would be very convenient for him as a wolf to say that, remembering the spat between him and TGWBS...
Does she know Gil is her Gifted comrade and thus innocent (and this is bluff), or not? If they are R&H, would she say things like that? But Lommy is a master-player, or isn't she? Could this be a provocation for the Faithfuls?

…

I personally don't think Gil's a faithful (wouldn't he show more interest in the game if he had a special role?) and his confused remark about Glirdy being killed by the wolves speaks for his innocence, as he doesn't strike me as the wolf who plays a confused villager -type.

How to read this?


I realize now that I really should have paid more attention to that last quote...^^



So we could go for someone we pretty much know isn't the Hunter, like Hookbill or Kitanna. Or we could try our luck with Lommy. I wouldn't put it past Lommy to "bluff" or whatever, but that doesn't mean anything.

…

I don't want to kill Hookbill or Kitanna because they could easily take some of the fall for Gil's lynching. On the other hand, I don't want to blow it tonight.

…

Alright, I think Hookbill is our best lynch option tomorrow. I'd like to have Kitanna as an option, too, but if we want to be safe, she is a very safe kill option.

[Kitanna]'s a "safe" option for us, but... her death will:
a) eliminate a possible target for Lommy (thus, a possible lynch target toMorrow, but worse, bringing Lommy to having to choose another suspect)
b) eliminate a person who suspects Hookbill quite a lot (unless after the Gil fiasco she changes her mind)

The kill of Lommy might:
a) cast suspicion on Kitanna, because she voted for her (well... "if the Faithfuls were that stupid to do this", but anyway it can bring a debate of it at least)
b) eliminate a person whom quite a lot people think innocent
c) eliminate a person who thinks Hookbill and also maybe Lalaith innocent

The kill of Mithalwen seems somewhat risky. I am afraid she might be the Hunter, unless she wants to completely misguide everyone. Or is just crazy.

...

Conclusions:
Hookbill - 99% not the Hunter. Might be suspected, so I think it would be best to leave him alone this night.
Kitanna - 90% not the Hunter. Might be suspected, so I think it would be best to leave her alone this night.
Thinlómien - I think she is not the Hunter - or at least I think it the less probable of all three (Mith, Lalaith, Lommy). Is trusted quite a lot, so I think it would be best to kill her this night.
Lalaith - Not sure if she is the Hunter. Trusts me but does not trust you, so I think it would be better not to kill her this night, since it might leave tracks and also, she could be the Hunter far more likely than Lommy (from my thoughts).
Mithalwen - I think she is the Hunter, at least I think it is the most probable of all three. Not any other problem with her, so I'd rather leave her alone this night.

All we can do is risk it, and Lommy has been an assumed innocent anyway. Also, though I have been on her suspicion list, I don't think you have, so if she is the Hunter, with only two choices, she will certainly pick two others before you, and possibly two before me? Maybe. :D

++Lommy

I think this would be good. Well, unless Lommy turns out to be a Hunter :rolleyes:

You have killed the hunter. "eek"

Which one of you will go with him?

You will see... :P

Darn it.

[Lalaith]

OMG. I can't believe it...you didn't even think Lommy was the Hunter anyway so all my careful deductions that Saturday were a COMPLETE WASTE OF TIME....it was a really nice day, I could have been out in the sunshine and everything....
*throws another childish tantrum*


Lommy, I thought you must be innocent because you kept saying things I'd been thinking. Which tends to be a good sign, in my experience.
And I thought Gil was innocent because of the Glirdan thing, a wolfish nighttime discussion would have cleared up his confusion and clearly he hadn't been party to any such discussion.
And then, when Gil turned out to be the Ranger, I realised you must be the Hunter. Because we were the only two to defend him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Many thanks for posting that Durelin. Legate's compelling analyses and dedutions were another Night-time highlight for me, so it's great to see that he continued analysing and deducing right up to the end. :D

Your choice of Kath was quite unexpected to me, even though we had discussed her previously, so it's good to see the reasoning. I thought that was probably what led you to kill her.

My own view (from the grave) was that Lommy was the best choice for Night 7. I thought that there was a 50:50 chance of her being the Hunter (on the basis that only she and Lal did not vote for Gil), but I had thought that Lal had defended him more throughout the game. It didn't occur to me that a Huntress Mith might have put in the last minute vote for Gil to avoid detection, but (even though it was not the case) it was solid reasoning. Still, even though I thought that there was a significant risk that Lommy would take one of you with her, she looked the best bet because she had in effect become an all-but-known innocent. I also thought that, even if she took one of you with her (and I thought Durelin the most likely), the other would still be in with a good chance, albeit that this would involve seeing through another Day.

Anyway, interesting stuff, so thanks. :)

Oh and Noggie, I would have been rambling on about always seeming to vote for the Seer whether I had been innocent or guilty because ... well ... I always do. I even managed to vote for her in this game without actually intending to ... :D

[Lalaith]

Oh and btw, Lommy, if I *had* guessed you and Gil were the H&R, there's no way I would have drawn attention to it by grouping you together as innocents like that! Sorry, it must have been rather worrying for you both...

[Thinlómien]

Those PMs are so funny! :D Thanks for sharing.

Oh and btw, Lommy, if I *had* guessed you and Gil were the H&R, there's no way I would have drawn attention to it by grouping you together as innocents like that! Sorry, it must have been rather worrying for you both...It actually wasn't, since almost no one was heeding what you were saying... ;) And I thought that if you were a wolf, you wouldn't have said that, but killed us in the night and thus I thought you were innocent...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate should post the entirety of his VERY LONG hunter pondering PM. It was just amazing. The amount of work and thought he put into that...insane. I wasn't sure if you'd want it all shared, though, Legate, so I've only shared small (very small by comparison) pieces.
I think for illustration, it suffices. Who would want to read it, anyway :D And I think you chose good parts, it maps the main thoughts.

And yes... insane is quite precise word for that. :rolleyes:

Those PMs are so funny! Thanks for sharing.
I think that was the funniest part of it. And the last night was perhaps the funniest for me. You can probably guess from what you read :)

[Rikae]

OK, I just got back from my trip, and thought I ought to apologise to my fellow villagers for being so suspicious early on. It occured to me, too, after I revealed myself, that I could have saved my neck simply by switching my own vote. :rolleyes: It's a learning experience, I guess...I'll do better next time I'm gifted, I promise. :(

Nice job, faithfuls.