Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Nogrod]

I don't think we can afford to kill her with 3 players gon voluntarily and Glirdan looking iffy......Please Mith see also what Durelin and I said some posts ago about it. In a village with people who don't read what others write, an alarmed around at deadline cobbler might be devastating making the last retraction or whatever. I wouldn't leave even a known cobbler Roa to the village with Glirdy and Gil (no offence meant to either one :) ). We'd be lost then.

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod... and though the fat lady may be doing her vocalise... I am not giving up yet...

[Mänwe]

Roa, no-one has ignored you, I find what you say absurd. We are not blindly following Rikae, you yourself say it would be best for you to die to proove Rikae right or wrong.

That is our only course of action to prove finally who was telling the truth. You admit that, so don't go on about people ignoring you. Reasons why I think people have not taken up your advice thus far Mith, they haven't ignored you.

Nogrod, no offence taken, and I see your point, though it is all too easy to just say because two people agree with eachother they are in league and so must be faithful's. Did you not say you were agreeing with everything Legate or Rune was saying?

[Mithalwen]

No, I am prepared ot get killed I am not going to be a lemming. We can kill Roa anytime , we need dead wolves.... we would be better off lynching a non participant. At least we know the score with Roa..why can't you see we have to play the percentages in this game?

[Mithalwen]

Noone has answered why Rikae didn't state her dream straight away.

Sudenly she started to suspect me when I didn't immediately take her word? That, I find odd.

[Nogrod]

I am not giving up yet...I kind of appreciate. Even though Roa doesn't seem to read what I write :p I am still of the opinion (stated many times) that Rikae might bluff. But I still think we're better off this way as it looks to me more probable - with possible clearing of things tomorrow & information becoming available toMorrow as well.

Of course is someone would go for Spm I might reconsider... but that would still be a shot in relative greyness (even thoug I myself am somewhat convinced about his guilt at the moment).

[Mithalwen]

I would. I feel you are innocent. Roa is AT WORST a cobler. I could believe SPM guilty for his quibble and hasty vote for Roa...

[Nogrod]

Noone has answered why Rikae didn't state her dream straight away.I find that very reasonable indeed - it was wise to see what the known-to-her does first before she knows she's revealed. Very clever I'd say.

EDIT: X'd with Mith and needing a cigarette... :p

[Roa_Aoife]

I'd go for SPM in a heartbeat if I thought it would do any good. But everyone will likely say, "Oh, she's just being a cobbler trying to save her own skin. She thinks SPM is innocent, or she wouldn't risk it!" And thus nothing would come of it. He's managed to completely ignore the accusations against him and noone has siad a thing about it.

And Manwe, it's not absurd. It's the truth, and others have admitted that it's plausible. Including Nogrod (thank you for correcting me), whom, if you believe Rikae, is a known innocent. You need to learn how to temper your words. It'a a lesson I learned the hard way, and if you fail to realize it, you'll only end up dead in this game.

[Mithalwen]

Well Roa, I am not sure about you but I don't see the point of lynching someone who we know isn't a wolf with ordos dropping like flies. I think Gil has voted like SPM and is unlikely ot return so it is going to be best shot.

++ The Saucepan Man

[the guy who be short]

++BRINNIEL

As the only person on both my and Rikae's suspect list, and for the reasons I have already stated.

We need to kill a wolf. We do not need to kill a cobbler. Simple as.

[Durelin]

Later than I wanted to be, but here and open minded. I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that "wasting a lynch" on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative.

We've spent a lot of the Day discussing Roa and Rikae, so I'm afraid of everyone, when and if we do sort of come to a consensus (which may or may not be a good idea, considering the wolves could lead the way on either side), if we decide not to lynch Roa, our lynch target will be far too random.

The votes stood when I posted this as:

Roa 3, Legate 2, SPM 1.

Enough has been said about Roa.

If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait (*gasp*, I know he's scary). Roa may not know who the wolves are, but for what we have to go on... Ugh, I wish I had more ideas at this point.

Legate is seemingly the easiest option if we deem that Roa is a wasted lynch, which makes me wary. I have no idea about Legate. I think he has been trying to be helpful, and whether or not that is forced I cannot tell right now (yes, yes, I need to read through pretty much everyone's posts again). The fact that Roa balatantly supported him makes him an easy target, which is just the sort of opportunity wolves might jump on, or at least nudge along. I do not rule out voting for him, but I have not seen enough to make me vote for him right now (and there's not much Day left, for that matter).

I agree with TGWBS in looking at those who Roa did not mention, several of whom have been slipping by without notice. Specifically I am concerned with Brinniel and Kath. They've both been quite amiable and helpful seeming when *needed*, per say.

Anyway, I probably just cross-posted with a lot of people...I'll try to keep up in these last minutes (about 20 when I post this). :D

[Nogrod]

Gil - > Spm
Lommy - > tgwbs
Brinniel - > Legate
Spm - > Roa
Lalaith - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate1, Roa2)
Rune - > Legate (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa2)
Kath - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa3)
Roa - >Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa4)
Mith -> Spm (Spm2, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa4)
tgwbs -> Brinniel (Spm2, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa4, Brinniel1)

[Mithalwen]

Only 10 votes ..that is pants.. all the wolves could have abstained..or all voted and be horrifically influential.......

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, Mith, I agree with you- the village may think they can asorb the loss of that many innocents with catching any wolves, but I don't. A village with those ratios, baddies comprising a third of the village? Even with great players as villagers, it's not good.


--Roa_Aoife

++SPM

I hope the wolves don't believe me, Rikae, because if I don't die, the village will be spared the confusion of dealing with you another Day.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm tied with SPM now. One vote will make the difference.

[Nogrod]

I'm not sure if I share Mith's urgency here about the numbers. I mean if Roa is a cobbler all this discussion that has been had around her vs. Rikae just proves how great player she is as she has managed to "cobbler" us into this. :)

I also think that what we need now the most is some clarity.

That doen't say I don't still think Spm isn't a Faithful. On the contrary. But I would curse myself long and hard if I now went on to machinate his lynch and be shown wrong and we had killed an innocent leaving this muddle to be reworked toMorrow.

EDIT: X'd with Roa X 2

[Durelin]

Everyone's right about people "dropping like flies," and I really don't want us to end up stuck with a Cobbler and x number of wolves, with the few innocents left carried along with the tide.

(Cobblers are nasty to keep around, nasssty! Especially when all their wolves are dead and there's a werebear left, because then they have nothing to lose, and you don't know if they'll side with the bear or not, hehe... :p)

++Roa

Obviously, my vote is retractable if anyone has a better suggestion in mind/can convince me otherwise.

Edit: Crossed with Mith's post after Nogrod's and on down...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I get my first two votes in WW. Surely a moment to remember :D

However,
Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.
However, not having a strong case is actually what Brinniel accuses me of. Well, that's just the problem - I don't have any particular suspect yet, yesterday it was Mänwe at first, today, I am in the middle of a mixture. I know whom I don't suspice, which is as much important to me as to know whom I would suspice. This far, I am more like following my best sense and reason to vote the one less unsuspicious (I hope you get it), someone who I am sure would do no harm lynching (this was why I asked if it is in our intentions to lynch Roa, by the way).

I was hoping I'll return home earlier and have yet time to send some more thoughts, but having to read (again) through all the previous page and Rune's vote popping at me in the end, well, you know what. :mad:

I'll post my vote yet, trying to find something helpful, if some stroke of brilliance strikes me! Otherwise I'd probably go for Roa.

Edit: Cross-posted with about ten people...

[Mithalwen]

Alright, Mith, I agree with you- .

If the situation weren't so dire I'd suggest champagne to mark this historic event :p

But I fear it will have been a futile act in the end ..and they will lynch you today and me tomorrow for trying to keep you from the gallows, and then the village will be truly stuffed... :(

[Roa_Aoife]

10 mintues, people. Don't do this to yourselves! You can't survive these odds.

[Mänwe]

Well I will stick to what I have said;

++ Roa_Aoife

[Rikae]

To finish it off:


Brinniel – Her initial defense of the highly suspected Manwe would seem like an odd move for a wolf, especially a new one, who would be happy to sit back and watch an innocent lynched. Of course, that's assuming Manwe is innocent! If they were wolves together, though, I'd think she'd bury the defense amid comments about other people...
the guy who be short- Has spoken nothing but good sense and been, or appeared, very helpful. That in itself is suspicious, though; his posts seem, well, carefully thought out – and who has more reason for caution than a faithful?
Hookbill the Goomba – Seems slippery and uninvolved. Not sure if it's his style or what...
Legate of Amon Lanc- I don't like his “useless villager” comment, but at the same time it seems like something only a very bold or careless wolf would say...although he could be just that. I don't particularly suspect him though.
Thinlómien – Her post 42 “probably between two innocents” comments on Mith and Lalaith, noncommital remarks on Nogrod & SPM, and a whole paragraph explaining why Glirdan's suspiciousness wasn't suspicious raise my suspicion; she openly admits she had little case against me; she seems eager to toss suspicion around hoping it will stick somewhere, and could be seen as defending Mith, who I find suspicious also; then claims to have “hardly any suspicions”, although she has, in some way, pointed to several people as suspects.



Manwe: I'm sorry – that was Legate I meant.

Once again, I beg you - leave Roa alone for now. Lynching her will destroy the benefit knowledge brings you. Her vote is meaningless in such a big village, and tomorrow her cobblerishness will be proven.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, no time to think. The best is to go for sureness. I believe Rikae.

++Roa_Aoife

[Roa_Aoife]

Yeah, good bye, Mith. This village has hung themselves.

And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now.

[the guy who be short]

Does anybody else find it really suspicious how Roa really wanted to die, and now, suddenly, doesn't? She is an incredible cobbler, but I can't believe anybody could even consider her not being the cobbler. It doesn't make sense. She is here to confuse you. You should be ignoring her, not voting for her.

[Rikae]

Sorry - the conclusions for the last post are:

Suspicious:
Thinlomien
Moderately Suspicious:
Hookbill
TGWBS
Legate
Not very suspicious:
Brinniel

[Durelin]

Oh great, now I'll have "the difference" resting on my shoulders. :rolleyes:

I agree with you, Nogrod, about clarity. Personally, I need it right now, and I don't want to wait on the Faithfuls to bring it to us.

Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark? (I'm short of time and so not reading very carefully, so I may be off...)

[Roa_Aoife]

I was happy to die until I realized what the odds are going to be agianst the village now. Of course, those odds may suit you perfectly, TGWBS.

[Rikae]

Legate, if you really believe me, you should leave Roa alive, as a known innocent of sorts! You can kill her later...

Here's my vote:

++Mithalwen

And goodbye, good luck to you! Again, I'm sorry I couldn't have been more use! Off I go - into the Supernal Oneness of the - oh, heck, the Infernal Twoness...wherever I'm going.
Write me a nice gruesome death, O Modalaure!

[Mithalwen]

Trust me..the numbers aren't great. We are no nearer to getting a wolf than yesterday ......and even if Roa is the cobbler, unless the Ranger is having a good run, tomorrow morning 1 in 4 of the village are wolves.

[Durelin]

Our odds started slipping from the time our Seer was outed, but it's only Day 2. We're far from lost yet. A lot happened toDay, which means a lot to look at tomorrow, and we will likely (hopefully) have at least one known innocent in Nogrod.

Edit: Cross with Mith

[Nogrod]

And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now.Funny wish from one who hopes only the best for the village.

++ Roa_Aoife

At least we'll learn things.

If this is a great bluff and they'll kill me toNight remember to hang the PanMan toMorrow... if you don't have a splendid reason not to. :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

--Mithalwen

++Legate

[Mithalwen]

And 2more players may have gone. SpM isn't entirely a shot in the dark.

And Rikae's spite vote doesn't convince me ......

[Rikae]

Can't let my work be undone. You have Nogrod and Roa as known quantities...

goodbye!

[Roa_Aoife]

Too late, Rikae, your plan has failed, and now everyone will know what you really are.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To Rikae: Who do you think we should lynch? I thnik it's not possible to retract it this fast but you cayn give us one last advice before you... erm, you know, probably...

EDIT: x-ed with Rikae (lol?)

[Roa_Aoife]

Praise ERU! My work is done, and you have lost both your seer and a Day in which you could have caught a wolf.

[Rikae]

Don't lynch Roa - you'll know what she is when I'm dead, and she isn't a wolf!

[Nogrod]

Please calm down people...

[Mithalwen]

At least we'll learn things.



Oh yeah ..we won't lose in ignorance :rolleyes: but I prefer to maximise the odds

[Macalaure]

DEADLINE

You have lynched your Queen!

(this post will (hopefully) soon be edited into the narration)

edit: since there have been posts after the deadline, I will make a new post for the narration - it would look stupid the other way...

[Nogrod]

Rikae: Either I don't understand the reasons for your heatedness or then there are even bigger things here...

[Rikae]

I told you...

[Macalaure]

It was a day of eventfulness on the peak of Meneltarma. Long speeches and sharp comments were exchanged and never have the debates been more heated.

After lengthy explanations of Roa, Rikae arose and spoke against her, accusing her of being none other than the Queen of Númenor and in league with the Faithfuls that come to murder them.

Of course Roa_Aoife rejected this vehemently, but now for the first time the Númenoreans wondered why Roa always kept herself veiled under a headscarf. What may lie hidden beneath it?

“I say we shall lynch her!” demanded Kath “Only this way we will know for sure who she is, and who Rikae is.”

“But no!” answered Mithalwen “This would be foolish! Our numbers are too few, and if Roa is indeed our Queen, then at least we know we have nothing to fear from her but foul counsel.”

Many now spoke for one side or the other. Some even spoke for both, and even Roa herself was among these in those confusing hours.

“Alas! How can we know what Rikae said is true, or what Roa said is true?” Nogrod sighed “All good deeds we could do rely on the hope that we trust the right person. I wish it was not hope but assurance – that assurance we used to have before the Shadow of the West came upon us.”

The situation was to despair over...

“Do you know what I think?” said the Saucepan Man “I think there is only one way that I know of for us to know something for certain. It might be foolish, but I will rather do this folly than another.”

And with these words he drew a dagger from under his coat and too quickly for anybody to prevent it he stabbed Roa in her chest and blood sprayed from her opened heart. Some came to her help, but it was too late. The Saucepan Man took off Roa’s scarf and there everybody saw the crown of Westernesse: Roa really was Ar-Zimraphel, their Queen, who was no longer on the side of her peoples. Tar-Míriel laid back and did her last breaths, but as she did, she laughed at those around her in tragic triumph.

Thus she left the circles of this world, and only Eru knows her fate after death.


*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two
Roa_Aoife (Tar-Míriel / cobbler) - stabbed to death on Day Two


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Macalaure]

One more dark night was passing, and once more four Faithfuls wandered over the island to seek a victim of their choice. Late, they knocked at the door of Rikae.

“What do you want?” said Rikae’s voice from inside, but nobody answered her.

“Who are you?” she said, with fear in her voice. She dared not to open, but she didn’t had to, because in this moment the door was now broken down with force. Four hooded figures entered her room and stood around her bed. One of them stepped forward.

“You are the High Priest of Sauron the Accursed, aren’t you?" asked the one "If you know so much then, you will surely know the song that was once sung by this lands’ people?”

“I do not know what you speak of!”

“I see. So let me sing it to you:

The father made the World for Elves and Mortals, and he gave it into the hands of the Lords. They are in the West. They are holy, blessed and beloved: save the dark one. To all they gave in measure the gifts of Ilúvatar.
The world is fair, the sky, the seas, the earth, and all that is in them. Lovely is Númenor. But my heart resteth not here for ever, for here is ending.

And, indeed, there will be one ending: right here and right now.”

And right at these words one of the others came forward and thrusted a sharpened iron tube into Rikae and she answered their questions no more.


*~*


Once again, two persons were missed when the Númenoreans assembled in the morning, for Glirdan was gone as well. They searched his hut, but found nothing. Then they went for Rikae’s. They saw the broken door and evil dawned on them.

There, in the middle of the room lay Rikae, if it was her at all. Her body was grossly disfigured into the shape of a ship, with three iron tubes sticking from her like chimneys and her eyes hanging from the side like anchors.

All people that were present fell silent in horror...

“Let’s look at it positively:” said Gil-Galad after a while “Rikae will now go without the wind, and many parts of her are made of metal that shears hidden rocks, and she will not sink in calm or storm.”

“But she is no longer fair to look upon.” responded Brinniel, overtly disgusted.

Thus they brought Rikae to the sea and they let her remains fare into the west, to follow her King.


*~*


Back on the hill, they saw a new body upon the heap of corpses that piled upon Garin. Glirdan lay there, dead, and his blood covered the other dead. A letter lay there as well, but nobody bothered to read it this time. Only rolling eyes and shaking heads were seen: This approach was not going to work...


*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two
Roa_Aoife (Tar-Míriel / cobbler) - stabbed to death on Day Two
Rikae (High Priest of Annatar / seer) - killed and reformed into a ship by Faithfuls in Night Three
Glirdan (ordo) - another one who committed suicide to revive Garin


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Gil-Galad
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Nogrod]

4 against 11. About 1/3

The eleven though have a Ranger, a Hunter and a known innocent for two Days + a host of information from previous Days. So I can begin the Day yet again with a “cheer up!” call - although Glirdy's passing was pretty bad.

So we really need to get some faithfuls next. And here’s my plan then.

I’m going to make some analysis & tell you of my thoughts about people here and do it as long as I dare today RL (I have an early morning call tomorrow RL).

I’m not infallibe, on the contrary, but you can trust that these are done with a good intention. So read them, chew them – agree, disagree, bring new points forwards... in no way accept them as I present them. More minds realise more things.

We must just remember that there are four people here who know exactly where I’m right and where I’m wrong. And they will do a lot to twist them. Although I’m not sure if they brave an all-out bandwagon toDay already...

One more thing to remember then when we approach the deadline. The wolves number four. They may create some havoc with retractions if we leave this to a last minute switching. Just think if Roa would have been here on top of them! Five votes to be changed towards the bad of us... I'm getting all the better feelings about our decision yesterDay.

You see, optimism!

Someone who has time might wish to look at the voting records by now. I think that what one could search from them is the safety or inconscipiousness. And I mean safety that goes with f.ex. voting early enough (like an hour before or something) even though able to stay online still so as not to be left as the last voters whom we normally concentrate our efforts (those who are forced to vote early are another thing). Or a kind of detachment in voting or ducking the hard choises.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I've had a skim of as many posts as I could and have had a thought or two.

Mainly to do with Kath and her post about Roa and the reason behind the vote. It seems to me that Kath was more interested in finding out Roa's identity than weather or not she was a wolf faithful. Her post barely (if at all) mentions the possibility. This struck me as odd for surely when one is an ordo or at the least an innocent, then the desire to see faithfuls put to justice is above meer curiosity.
Unless I missed something, that whole post had an odd feel to it. Perhaps Kath was just pointing out something relevant to the conversation I will have to double check some time, but I had to post this thought to add to the discussion...

[Nogrod]

One interesting detail.

On #21 Spm says:
In any event, both mathematically and logically speaking, it is likely that at least one, and quite probably, two of our four Faithfuls have spoken already so far.
And basically I must agree with him. Before that there had been eight people posting (of 21). Of those eight one is me (innocent) and three are dead (Garin, Glirdan and Roa). That leaves four people: Mith, Lalaith, Kath and Mänwe. So we've gotten a free harvest here that has left only four candidates.

Now my only problem with this is that I can still see Spm as one of our Faithfuls. That being so it would look like a perfect possibility for a villain to notify the illogical situation (for some miraculous reason no Faithful had actually posted yet) and call it out for their benefit. Or then he was just stating the obvious even though one of his fellows had already posted...

But I think we should remember this anyhow...

[Lalaith]

I’m not infallibe, on the contrary, but you can trust that these are done with a good intention. So read them, chew them – agree, disagree, bring new points forwards... in no way accept them as I present them. More minds realise more things.

I think we should put our minds together to find the most useful way to use our known innocent. We should, Annatar willing, have him among us for two Days.
I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

[the guy who be short]

In reply to Nogrod - that's not how maths works, I'm afraid. At that point, it was likely that at least one Faithful had spoken. However, every villager today has an equal chance - that is, 4 out of 15 - of being a Faithful.


I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?
I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.

[the guy who be short]

Right-o. Today, I intend to actually get my analysis of Lommy done. I also suspect:

- All those who voted for Roa.
- All those who considered believing Roa.

For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day.

I also agree that somebody should post and analyse the voting records. Alas, I have not the time today.

[Nogrod]

I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.I'm pretty uncomfortable with all this shortlist stuff in principle. But I will tell you what I think.

- All those who voted for Roa.
- All those who considered believing Roa.

For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day.I do disagree with you on this somewhat. If we already have a terrifying number of those who can influence the vote why give them one more? And no one says we would have gotten a Faithful yesterDay anyhow, on the contrary the basic odds were against us. And it was not illogical, that was the beauty of Roa's game yesterDay: it was a perfectly possible scenario.

But let's not make an issue out of this as I do believe this breaks the lines of us innocents already...

[Nogrod]

Oh I totally forgot why I decided to make a short post here... :confused:

I have no possibility to make full analysis of everyone before I need to go to sleep. It's midnight here and I need to wake up after six in the morning.

But I've been looking at Mith, Kath, Lalaith, Kitanna and Brinniel... people I have almost nothing to say as yet and would like to see more. It's not a random selection but made from a few points of view (I'd like to see closer for Durelin and tgwbs but I haven't time right now). But I'll try to have all you looked through before Day4 closes and I will leave the game next Night by the hands of the hopefully then only remaining two Faithfuls.

You know I have my doubts on Spm and somewhat to Lommy and confused about Mänwe...

[Lalaith]

that's not how maths works, I'm afraid

The maths is working against the village, right now. Three villagers drop out of the game, and all three happen to be ords. It does seem tough on us...

[Gil-Galad]

Killing off Glirdy was to me a move by the wolves to lay back and let us kill off our ordos one by one... so i think that we should watch who we pick this time and make new assumptions for everyone...

Suspect:
Manwe
SPM
TGWBS

Don't suspect:
Nogrod
Thinlomien

[Durelin]

Regardless of our odds, we have rid ourselves of a Cobbler. The wolves are ally-less, and we have two Gifteds still safe...as long as we don't try and lynch them. :rolleyes:

Considering the number of people who actually wanted to keep Roa alive, there has to be at least one wolf among them, trying to keep things alive, in an attempt to keep their cobbler alive. Just look at what Roa managed to do yesterDay - if she continued that toDay, and the next, and... We'd be so bogged down we wouldn't know what to think. Regardless of what people said about ignoring her, I don't think anyone actually did.

TGWBS - Yes, Roa wanted us to waste a day, but her idea of what is detrimental to the village is her own...and I still think that was hardly a wasted lynch. There are still eleven of us, against four. If we had not killed Roa, it was quite likely that toDay we'd be 10 against five. If you're so gung-ho about the village's safety, maybe you would have thought of that?

But, on to my main concern at the moment...

I know Mith stated herself in apparently a bout of grief that she would be targeted toMorrow for her efforts to save Roa, which I must say were rather dramatic...and she was quite right. Her over-zealous "oh nooo, the village!" makes me think it really was just acting. Bold for a wolf, but all four of them are still alive, and boldness often gets pushed aside as proof of innocence.

At any rate, 'tis time for food...mmm...tacos...

Edit: Crossed with Gil... Err...looks like you have some catching up to do, Gil.

[Kath]

It seems to me that Kath was more interested in finding out Roa's identity than weather or not she was a wolf faithful.
Because I did not believe she was a wolf faithful, I believed she was the Cobbler. In the post I made outlining what I thought were the possibilities surrounding what was going on, the one in which Roa turned out to be the Cobbler was the one I was most in support of. The only worry I had was the fact that in previous games the Cobbler could not be seen by the Seer, and then Mac clarified that in fact they could be seen in this game so I left my vote as it was.

Today we are rid of the Cobbler and we have a known innocent who, if the Ranger can still protect him toNight, will be a help to us both toDay and the next, and since we've lost three ordo's in the space of two Days we really do need to get a Faithful toDay.

TGWBS suggests a shortlist. This early on I'm not sure I agree. With 15 people left the chance that we get a shortlist entirely composed of innocents, or worse Gifteds, is very high. But perhaps we could do something similar. If we each choose the person we are most suspicious of, along with an actual text-based explaining the reasons why, and then take the three most suspicious people and allow Nogrod to decide which should be lynched. It's entirely unfoolproof as of course the wolves will be able to see who is in the running, but at least the decision isn't as arbitrary as a simple shortlist. Again though we could get a list of innocents.

Umm, Gil, the wolves didn't kill Glirdan. He 'committed suicide' because he hadn't voted two Day's running.

I think ... I think Mith is innocent. I've just read Durelin's suspicions of her and I can't share them. I don't think a wolvish (or a Gifted for that matter) Mith would draw such attention to herself. I think her frenzied attempt to save Roa was down to worry over the numbers. To me this makes Durelin look somewhat suspicious. Quoting Mith's worries about being lynched for 'supporting' Roa yesterDay and then proceeding to suspect her for that reason would be a wonderful bluff, and I can quite see Durelin as a bold enough wolf to try that.

I wish we could hear more from Lommy. Her lack of posts has been explained but I find it hard to get a feel from her when she isn't happily flood-posting the thread!

That's all my ideas for the moment, at least the ones willing to form an orderly queue and go down on the page. I'll be around for a while yet though.

[Nogrod]

Mithalwen
I don’t see why some people have wished to argue about her first post. I’m more inclined to think those who raise it over and over again as an issue to be far more suspicious than Mith who defends herself from it. If anyone has time to check who have been the proponents of this suspicion, I would be grateful indeed.

Overall Mith plays very sensibly and makes good points (reminds Garin has been perplexing earlier too, urges us to believe Rikae’s revelation at the closing hours, points to tgwbs’s oversimplification according to how to read Roa’s analysis) and sounds innocent (sighs what to do as the Seer should be saved but the frontrunners look innocent to her, gets desperate with people clinging to her first post again and again, almost flips at the end of Day2 as we were to lynch an innocent from numbers).

But. I’m a bit worried about the way she was ready to jump on lynching basically anyone except Roa and as soon as I half-jokingly said that Spm would do for me she produced the justification that because Spm quibbled and voted hastily for Roa she would vote for him. And just a few minutes later she says:
Only 10 votes ..that is pants.. all the wolves could have abstained..or all voted and be horrifically influential.......
Now this is just the fear we should all see. I think Mith meant that the wolves are horrifically influential in the vote that had already taken place, but think also that with retractions they can steer votes even more horrifically. So why should we give them more numbers by letting Roa live? Not to say by way of actually shooting in the dark towards almost anyone. We know the mathematical ratios of random votes + have experiences about last minute frenzies... they are both bad and exactly those where cool wolves & cobblers love to play their game.

I’m not sure. Maybe she didn’t just think of this? I would say I do not suspect her a lot but I have a little nag in the back of my head still.


Kath
Kath has maintained a presence but with very little to go on. As a veteran player she knows how to survive the first Days and she seems to be at it yet again. The problem is that she every now and then turns out to be a villain and in the endgame she can be the most efficient wielder of the dagger.

But there is one thing I find a bit bothersome. She has slightly defended Mänwe on both Days. And on Day2 it seemed pretty strange. First she reminded us that Roa will not know any more of us villagers than we do but still she uses Roa’s suspicion of Mänwe as point we should note on his possible innocence.

Now this is a funny coincidence as I have already voiced my slight suspicions on Lommy who has indeed done the same thing, indirectly covering for Mänwe (look at my post #248). Now I know the werecreatures will normally not protect each other openly if one gets caught etc. (well we have exceptions to this rule also...) But this is somewhat indirect covering for him as he as a newbie has possibly taken a bit too loud way of playing the Faithful-role of his?

I don’t know what to say, but if Lommy or Kath turn out a wolf then it’s likely that Mänwe is one too. But as Kath’s reactions coincide with my other slight suspicions I must say that I do suspect her too.

[Nogrod]

Gosh how time is flying!

Just wish to say this before I wrap I my last points about a few people I've been looking at the last hours.

I really wish to take a look at both Durelin and tgwbs. Maybe some others should do that too? This means not that I now think that they are villains but some things that I have passed here and there in a rush when skimming through other things kind of make me nervous enough to wish to see what they have been up to all along. They would be good guys to have on our side so they should be checked thoroughly...

[Nogrod]

Kitanna
Kitanna has been consistent and reasonable all the time. I somehow get a good vibe from her this time (it has not been the case everytime...) even though I would so much wish to see her post a bit more. I know that one thing that made me look more better of her was her lengthy wondering of why Rikae thought we should not vote for Roa (#245) as I shared the same confusion (that was about the only thing why I thought there was a small chance that we were led astray with her earlier yesterDay – another one being that there was a genuine possibility for Roa’s case, although a slight one again).

Now I know some of you say that there is the argument of numbers (which I disagree still) but if you look at how she ponders it, it sounds genuine embarrassement for the sake of the village making her doubt Rikae a little – even though she declares in the end believing her. Now this I would say sounds like someone who really cares for the village and tries to do her best for it. So even if we have a “plain case” she has the courage to voice her doubt if she thinks there is something fishy in there.

And what a fool I’ll feel myself if I’m wrong about her, but at least for now I’m not worried about her.


Lalaith
Now Lalaith really confuses me. I mean Confuses. Just think of this.

She votes Holby because of the “whom do we pray”-sentence, speculates that the wolves might be sacrificing one of their own on Day1 (!), all this to and fro with asking Rikae whom she had dreamt of and seemed to be most confused about anything that happened in Night2...

The really odd episode was her retracting from Holby to Mänwe with stated reason that the Seer must be safe. Now what she did was getting Mänwe to 5 votes while Garin was in 6 (and Rikae in 4). If the primary reason is to save the Seer one should vote for Garin. And she clearly realised it as she answers on Day2 to Roa’s question of that vote-change thus:
Yes, I knew Rikae was almost certainly safe at that point but you never know, hasty last-minute voting by people who don't finish reading a thread, it has happened....so I switched my vote to be sure.
The two alternatives were Garin and Manwe, and I felt Garin was probably innocent - as he indeed proved to be. Of the two, I preferred to see Manwe lynched as I wasn't as sure about him.
Now all this makes sense but the bolded part. I’m not sure what to make of this. The wolves may slip when they try to come up with fabricated excuses but that’s also very humane (I’m indeed more inclined to interpret that to and fro with Rikae’s dreams as a pure mistake in thought and not as a wolvish plan immediately retracted).

Even though there might be reasons to suspect her I’m inclined not to, at least much, at the moment.

[Nogrod]

Quadruple posting... :(

Time to sleep. I need to look at the rest later.

Do something people! :rolleyes:

PS. After all this I'm not so sure about my Spm-theory any more (I'm getting new ones I think). But I've not forgotten that either!

I indeed seem to be lacking a fourth one anyway... :D

[Durelin]

Ah, the sounds of silence...


To me this makes Durelin look somewhat suspicious. Quoting Mith's worries about being lynched for 'supporting' Roa yesterDay and then proceeding to suspect her for that reason would be a wonderful bluff, and I can quite see Durelin as a bold enough wolf to try that.

It's one thing to worry about the village and not want to waste a lynch, but it's a whole other situation when you've got her, as Nogrod has pointed out, crying for any lynch victim other than Roa. Talk about a wasted lynch - a random, rushed lynch just to *save* the known Cobbler.

I don't know what a wolf Mith would try to do, but it doesn't sit right with me. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's impossible...I've seen that learned the hard way. :rolleyes:

Alright, so I'm going to try my hand at the classic list...I haven't done this in a while, so apologies if I poke any eyes out...

Brinniel - Whoa, I forgot she was playing for a minute. She has come under some scrutiny, but perhaps not enough. She's been playing it extremely safe. It's understandable if she has no time, but that does not mean we can rule her out completely. As new to the game, with wolf-dom placed upon her, perhaps she is even a little afraid to post? I would be, too...though, my first time I got myself killed very early, so actually maybe my judgment isn't so good on that... Her vote for Rikae on Day 1 was quite cozy at the time, though I must say I thought Rikae was looking quite suspicious then myself.

Gil-Galad - Totally out there, uninvolved, etc. I know he doesn't seem to have much time for perfectly understandable reasons, but again, he can't be ruled out completely. Hopefully he can start posting more soon...I recall a recent wolf slipping by because everyone assumed his innocence because he wasn't there.

the guy who be short - Very careful and calculate; terse. I recall this being his style, though, but it has been quite a while... I feel like his opposition to Roa's lynching might have been very nicely placed. He did not shout it like Mith did, but he still opposed it. His vote for Brinniel separates him from the mess that was the Roa-Legate-a little SPM fiasco. Was that for safety, or was he simply going with what he believes? I tend to believe the latter, though it's something to bear in mind for sure. A wolf could have easily been more influential in the voting.

Hookbill the Goomba - Rather sketchy because he was overly amiable, and hasn't asserted any opinions, keeping him safe. Right now he's unable to post, unfortunately, so I feel like trying to make any judgments on him is rather futile. Besides, I think it's just his style setting people off.

Kath - Sneaky. As ever. I think I always suspect Kath. This game I feel like she's kept up the same appearance as usual (minimalistic?), but I also feel like her posts are a little less meaty. That may be just because she's busier than usual, or, when left to make stuff up about innocents to serve wolfish purposes, she finds herself lacking.

Kitanna - Even sneakier than Kath, perhaps? At least I've noticed her less, personally. Her calm assertion in most cases seems innocent, though it could be forced calmness. Right now I think she's innocent looking.

Lalaith - I agree with Nogrod - confusing. I feel like she's been brief and scattered, and is difficult to follow. I think she's been very careful not leave any trails, if she is a wolf.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He's been very amiable and helpful seeming, perhaps putting on the appearance of such. He feels kind of similar to Hookbill to me, though he has been a little more assertive in his opinions.

Mänwe - Confusing, like Lalaith. Though he has posted pretty regularly and seemed to contribute, he's avoided having to really express many opinions. Day 1 was mostly in-characterness, which spilled over a little into Day 2, and yesterDay all he really had to do was participate a little in the Roa debate and vote. I was a little surprised he wasn't the Cobbler...he's still got me confused.

Mithalwen - I've already stated what I think of her.

Rune Son of Bjarne - I totally forgot he was playing. Agh! More on him below....

The Saucepan Man - He's been surprisingly uninvolved for SPM, but he's not the only one who appears to be busy, obviously. I don't think he'd use busy-ness as a ploy as a wolf, but if he doesn't have any choice... When he does have the time, and is innocent, his analyses are very helpful. Of course, I suppose we learned our lesson about helpful analyses with Roa. I haven't seen anything not characteristic of typical Saucie, and whenever I charge after him without anything like that, I end up advocating the lynch of a ranger or something.

Thinlómien - Agh, sneaky Lommy is a scary Lommy. I know she said she'd be gone, but I do get a bit of an edgy feel from the posts she has made. I don't know if she's as "down to business" as I'm used to seeing her.

Okay, on Rune:

Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

++Legate

Wait...he's got a "way better feel" about him, but he doesn't have anyone else to vote for, so he votes for him, when he pretty much knows like the rest of us did that Roa was the cobbler? Is this a disguised effort to be consistent?


Even now when all evidence points towards her being the cobbler she mannage to put doubts in my mind.

I think the only sensible thing to do is to let Roa live for at least another day. . . That I think is the safest action to take.

That looks to me like he's just hopping along for the ride with other people's assertions. Yes, I need to stop using the word "assertions." And he actually acknowledges that Roa has "put" ideas in his head, though still wants to keep her alive? Did he actually doubt Rikae, or was he simply remarking on Roa's skill?

I still really don't understand what went on yesterDay with this little "save Roa" campaign. I wish we could have caught a wolf, but no one was saying that we had a likely wolf, so we shouldn't vote for Roa - we only had half of it going on: "we pretty much know Roa is the Cobbler, so let's not waste a lynch on her." I always agreed with that, but we were missing a good lynch candidate. I am not at all sure of Legate's innocence, but for now all I think he was was just the perfect easy target for...whatever went on, whether wolf driven or not.

Rune has slipped by almost completely unnoticed. When he has posted, he's been concisely helpful, and his posts are almost strategically just enough. His vote for Garin on Day 1 let him slip by nicely, and he's continued to do so ever since. At the least, he worries me.

My God that was a long post... Sorry, guys, but I suppose something has to fill this silence. ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

Hehe, yesterDay was eventful enough while I was present, but I see that it became even more so after I left ... :eek:

A brief word on my vote as, even though I thought I had explained my position sufficiently at the time, it still seems to have caused an issue. I had to vote when I did. I did not have sufficient time to be able to form any firm opinion on anyone other than Rikae and Roa (and Nogrod, obviously). While I could not be 100% certain, I was pretty much convinced that Roa was the Cobbler. So I thought it by far the best course to vote for her than to vote for someone about whom I was unsure.

And, in retrospect and my own position aside, I am having some difficulty seeing any convincing reason for not voting for her. Had she not been lynched, the likelihood is that an innocent would have been (particularly as I seem to have been the principal alternative candidate :rolleyes: ). So, the most likely result of not voting for her would have been 15 villagers toDay, 5 of whom would have been opposed to the innocents. And, while Roa could have been ignored, her vote would have remained valid (and retractable). That, to my mind, would have been a significantly worse position than we find ourselves in toDay. Also, while I think it unlikely that the Faithfuls would have left Rikae alive, since that would most probably have given her two further dreams, it was possible that (still being four in number) they would have taken the risk, and we would have had no way of knowing which of Roa and Rikae was telling the truth, nor could we have been sure of Nogrod's innocence. Much damage could have been done before the position was clarified.

So, I find myself rather wary of those who voted other than for Roa and, in particular, those who look to have been urging the village not to lynch her (despite this having also been the counsel of our departed Seer). I am particularly concerned over the parts that TGWBS and Mithalwen played in the affair, TGWBS more so because Mith's actions were possibly too bold, and therefore too risky, to have been those of a Faithful. TGWBS appears to have been far more subtle about it.

Finally, for now, I am curious as to what the case against me was yesterDay. As far as I can see, there were no reasons given, other than Roa's twisted analysis and Mithalwen's reference to my "quibble" (which others have noted and dwelt on far longer than I) and "hasty vote for Roa" (which I thought I had explained). Oh, and Gil's distaste for my lengthy posts. :rolleyes:

After all this I'm not so sure about my Spm-theory any more ...Nogrod, despite referring frequently to your suspicions of me, you have never really explained this "Spm theory". As I said yesterDay, I was not prepared to respond to Roa's attack on me. But, I will happily answer any points brough up by those now present.

Someone who has time might wish to look at the voting records by now.I plan on looking at the votes cast over the last two Days. Not sure whether I will be able to until (RL) tomorrow as its getting late here, although I may try to do Day 1 tonight at least. I also plan on trawling through Roa's analyses since, while Roa was clearly up to all sorts of tricks designed to confuse, confuddle and deceive, I still think that there might be something useful there now that we know her identity.

Happily, I hope to be much more active this Day, as (touch wood) work has eased off a bit.

[Durelin]

I feel like I need to make some witty comment about the subtle difference between "touch wood" and "knock on wood" as we 'mericans say, and what that might suggest about cultural differences, but I find myself at a loss... :p

(Now back to your regularly scheduled program...programme?)

[The Saucepan Man]

Here's the Day 1 voting record:

Durelin: ++Manwe (Manwe 1)
Rikae: ++Manwe (Manwe 2)
Manwe: ++Nogrod (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1)
Lommy: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 1)
Garin: ++Nogrod (Manwe 2, Nogrod 2, Rikae 1)
Garin: - - Nogrod, ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 2)
Brinniel: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3)
TGWBS: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 1)
Roa: ++SpM (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 1, SpM 1)
Kitanna: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 2, Spm 1)
Rune: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 3, Spm 1)
SpM: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 3, Spm 1)
Hookbill: ++Manwe (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 3, Spm 1)
Holby: ++Garin (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 4, Spm 1)
Lalaith: ++Holby (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 4, Spm 1, Holby 1)

Rikae reveals

Durelin: --Manwe, ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 5, Spm 1, Holby 1)
Roa: --SpM, ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1)
Legate: ++Manwe (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1, Lalaith 1)
Nogrod: ++Manwe (Manwe 4, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: --Holby, ++Manwe (Manwe 5, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Lalaith 1)

Did not vote: Kath, Glirdan, Gil-Galad, The Might

Manwe voters: Durelin (retracted), Rikae, Hookbill, Legate, Nogrod, Lalaith

If my hunch is correct that Manwe is innocent and the Faithfuls saw him as presenting himself as an easy target in the early stages (both big “ifs”, admittedly), then Durelin’s early vote, which she only changed after Rikae declared, is a matter for concern. I am not sure that she needed to make such an early vote, since she was present for much of the latter part of the Day. Possibly, therefore, a Faithful Durelin was testing the waters for a possible lynch campaign against Manwe. There was little in the way of reasoning, as it was based upon Manwe’s “in-character-banter” and style. It was Day 1, admittedly, but it seems rather early to have been voting for a “newbie” just because of his style.

I think it worth noting that Rune was the first to cast doubt on Manwe, and Kitanna expressed early suspicions of him too, again because of his style and also for that early accusation of Nogrod, Roa, Kitanna and me (which I am inclined to see as a tactic). Both later changed tack, possibly because support for his lynching was not gathering as much ground as expected. On reflection, this might be regarded as more suspicious, certainly more cautious, than an early vote for him, since a vote is more likely to attract attention.

One cautionary note on the rationale behind these thoughts. They are predicated on Manwe's innocence. While I still think that Manwe has been talking more sense than many are giving him credit for, it does seem to me that he has given very little indication as to who he thinks the Faithfuls might be, after that early four-way accusation. It is possible that, after that early boldness, he has been advised by Faithful friends to tone it down a bit.

As for the later votes for Manwe, these came after Rikae has declared. These were from Legate, Nogrod and a last minute switch from Lalaith. I am curious as to why Legate decided to vote for Manwe rather than Garin, since Garin was on 6 and Manwe on 2 at the time, and so a vote for Garin surely stood a better chance of ensuring Rikae's safety (plus, to my mind, he looked the more suspicious).

Lalaith's late switch to Manwe is notable too. Given that Garin was the more likely by then to be lynched, it might be regarded as relatively "safe".

Rikae voters: Lommy, Brinniel, SpM, Garin

I can understand the early votes for Rikae, as Rikae most definitely looked suspicious (to me, anyway) at the time. The later votes came from me and Garin, both of whom I know to be innocent. So, there's not a lot that I can draw from these votes. They were certainly not "safe", as Rikae was under a fair bit of suspicion at that stage.

Garin voters: TGWBS, Kitanna, Rune, Holby, Durelin, Roa

This is difficult since, although he was innocent, Garin certainly presented himself as an easy target with his own manner of voting. It is quite likely that one, possibly two, of the Faithfuls seized on this. In that regard, I find the votes of TGWBS, Rune and Kitanna to be the more suspicious, as they came before Rikae’s reveal. As noted above, Rune and Kitanna had both withdrawn from earlier mild accusations against Manwe.

Durelin’s switch from Manwe to Garin is of interest as it quickly followed Rikae’s declaration, and so disregarded further consideration over possible alternatives.

Others:

Manwe for Nogrod - I don’t find this overly suspicious, as I too was concerned about Nogrod on Day 1. That said, it was early, and based, as far as I can see, solely on Noggie’s comments on Glirdan. Not a particularly “safe” vote, but supported only by minimal evidence (even by Day 1 standards).

Lalaith for Holby (retracted) - This looks like the “safest” vote of the Day to me as Holby had not been under serious supicion and was very unlikely, at that point, to be lynched. I don’t really understand her reasoning either. She refers to an “in-character” comment made by Holby in her first post as a possible message from a Cobbler to the Faithfuls. That looks to me to be very weak grounds for a vote. And why was she trying to lynch the Cobbler at that stage when she should have been hunting Were-Faithfuls? Decidedly suspicious. And not necessarily redeemed by her late switch to Manwe which, as I have noted, might also be regarded as "safe".

Mithalwen for Lalaith - I can understand why she would vote for Lalaith, given how odd Lalaith’s vote looked and she was also, I think, slightly miffed over Lalaith having picked her up on her first post comment. But, at this point, Garin was on 6 and Rikae on 4, with four left to vote (excluding The Might) and possible further switches, Rikae’s survival was by no means guaranteed. Despite having good reason (for Day 1) for voting for Lalaith, I would have thought that securing Rikae’s survival was a more important consideration. It might also be regarded as a “safe” vote, given that Lalaith was in no danger of being lynched.

I’m not setting too much store by the “did not votes”, given the explanations on the Admin thread, at this stage at least.

Since I should have been abed hours ago, Day 2 will have to wait. For now, though, here’s the voting record:

Gil-Galad: ++SpM (SpM 1)
Lommy: ++TGWBS (SpM 1, TGWBS 1)
Brinniel: ++Legate (SpM 1 TGWBS 1, Legate 1)
SpM: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 1)
Lalaith: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 2)
Rune: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 2)
Kath: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3)
Roa: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
Mithalwen: ++SpM (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Roa: --Roa, ++SpM (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3, Brinniel 1)
Durelin: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Manwe: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 5, Brinniel 1)
Legate: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1)
Rikae: ++Mithalwen (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Nogrod: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 7, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Rikae: --Mithalwen, ++Legate (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 3, Roa 7, Brinniel 1)

Did not vote: Kitanna, Glirdan, Hookbill

[Brinniel]

I was a bit rushed yesterday, so I didn't get to think things out as much as I would've liked before I had to vote. Roa may have been the easiest vote, but since her role was revealed, I found myself wanting to catch a werewolf instead. But maybe I needed more time to think, because now that I look back on it, I am glad it was she who was killed. ToDay is much less confusing, and I feel we can get down to the bottom of this and pick out the Faithful now that we do not have to expect a flood of posts from Roa.

Legate is still suspicious for me, he is just a little too friendly for my liking...which is again one of my reasons for voting for him yesterday. But toDay I still need to analyze him further.

And at this point I'm not sure what to think of Hookbill. I won't take him off my suspect list, but with his very small presence (for understandable reasons), it's hard to get a good judge of character.

I feel like I am at a slight disadvantage as a newcomer. I'm not yet aware of everyone's playing styles- what's normal and what's abnormal. I am certainly studying everyone's posts...and as a result I find I have a tendency to do more reading than writing.

There are others (besides the two previously mentioned) who I'd like to consider suspects: Kath, Lommy, Rune, Kitanna

I have a bad habit of going off hunches without giving good enough reason...something I'll try to avoid here. Unfortunately, toDay I simply won't have time to make a full analysis of all of those on my suspicious list. It's been a very hectic week for me, as I notice it's been for many. The good thing is that after toDay I should have a lot more time on my hands, so I should be around more, as long as I'm still alive.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Finaly a bit of attention in my direction. . . I always find it odd to get ignored.

anyways I don't really know what to say, I have seen nothing today that has changed my oppinon on anything and I am not skilled in analyzing votes.

Anyways so far Hookbill, Durelin, Lalaith and Mith are the persons I suspect the leasts, so they are probably the faithfulls. . . at least that is how it normally works out.

I am starting to belive Mänwe innocent. . .the more I think about it the more it makes sence. I mean, I have hardly ever witnessed a wolf act downright weird or stand out like Garin did, mostly when people get in the spot like in that fashion they get lynched and are odros. The wolves I only spot on small things and therefor I shall focus on these things rahter than people that stands out like Mänwe.

I suppose Brinniel or Legate are most likely to get my vote today, but it is way to early to tell. . . I am far from sure enough on anybody to dismiss the possibility of voting for them today.

[Kitanna]

I've decided to take a closer look at Hookbill. I get an uneasy feeling about him and I'm not sure why.

Looking back, Hookbill tends to lean on his status as a newbie to WW. Hiding behind a mask of uncertainty of how things work.
Day One he constantly reminds us that he is "not a good judge of character". He avoids directly accusing anyone at first. He seems a bit uncertain of Manwe, but refusing to openly admit it. He just sort of writes his suspicions off as a "lack of tact" on Manwe's part. In the end he votes for Manwe because he believes Garin is simply being sloppy. Hookbill's vote for Manwe was on instinct it seems.
Day Two in his first, and only, post of the day he continued his "not a good judge of character" defense. He had stated being busy and so his lack on Day Two was no surprise.
Today he seems to finally openly voice suspicions without masking them in a wave of uncertainty about himself. He finds Kath to be suspicious due to her post yesterday about Roa's identity.

All in all I don't like how Hookbill uses his poor judge of character and relative inexperience with werewolf. To me it seems like he is trying to cover his tracks by not tying himself down with accusations and such. I feel rather uncertain about Hookbill at the moment.

[Thinlómien]

...and toDay I will probably unleash the flood-posting Kath has missed so much, since I'm going to spend the week-end in Nogrod's place... So all that prevents me from flood posting should be Nogrod's need to play werewolf too and some minor things (social duties ;) to keep company to my sister, eating, doing maybe some schoolwork...). Anyway, this time, I will be able to hang around 'til the deadline.

~*~

There's one rather bad thing in our situation. We can't conclude anything from the wolf kills. By forcing the seer reveal we have launched a series of events that dictates the wolves their kills. There's nothing you can conclude from killing Rikae. Any wolf would like to get rid of a seer. Likewise, when Nogrod dies, we can't conclude anything from it.

Admittedly we could analyse who of us villagers would, as wolves, attack Rikae though ranger might be protecting her, but I doubt the discussion would be fruitful. (Because we would probably end up in a half the villagers would, half the villagers wouldn't -situation, but our results wouldn't tell us anything, since the wolf kills are decided by three different people, not just one, and we can't know whether one, two or three wolves were for attacking Rikae on Night2... In my opinion we'd just lose time and effort.)

~*~

I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?I still dislike this kind of suggestions! They smell wolvish "easy solutions". Wouldn't it be very nice for a wolf just to vote someone the known innocent suggests and not to have to make up own theories/suspects?

Doing a lynching candidate list by a known innocent only makes sense when the known innocent knows more than the others. For example, if s/he knows the gifteds' identities s/he can prevent them from getting lynched by making the list and everyone following it. (If I recall correctly, that was the case in Dueling Wizards.) That isn't the case right now.

Nogrod doesn't know anything more than we others do. Thus, I don't think he should make a lynch candidate list. He should, however, give some honest innocent opinions for us to chew. Then we innocents have two (instead of the normal one) 100% surely innocent opinions in our head, his and our own. So, what I actually mean, is that I'm against Nogrod becoming or being made some god who dictates everything, but I'm strongly for him becoming the village official councellor. Everybody should heed his advice, but no innocent has a reason to trust his judgement any more than his/her own (unless s/he believes Nogrod to be more intelligent than him/herself, but that's a whole different matter...).

I'm suspicious of TGWBS and Lalaith because of these suggestions I find unreasonable and harmful to the village. (Though, in TGWBS's defense, I must say he has had these weird tactics suggestions before... ;))

[Thinlómien]

I think no one should start toDay what some started yesterday: trying to find clues from Roa's posts. It's just useless. She's cunning enough to make the posts misleading and as she had no real information, the analyser would be wasting his/her time.

Except if s/he was a faithful? I can't see anyone else having a motive to analyse Roa's posts. A faithful could use this to sway the discussion, confuse the village and to look helpful. This brings me back to my suspicions of TGWBS.

~*~

Durelin bugs me.
Way to go Rikae!! With just two dreams, you have nailed the Cobbler. Though there are still four wolves out there, we finally might have a lead on something.I don't think anyone else than the faithfuls are delighted to have the seer not dreamed about even one wolf before she dies. I mean, her attitude seems too joyful... While it's a good thing that the cobbler's nailed, Durelin seems a bit overjoyed... maybe because she and her companions are in no danger of being dreamed about anymore?

She has said other things that make me wary too... For example, she, like TGWBS, tries to make conclusions from Roa's posts.

I didn't like her first Day1 vote. It was too hasty.

All in all, she agrees and rejoices far too much... (Though I was accused of being too calm and cheerful in last game - I was an ordo - so maybe I shouldn't be accusing anyone of that...)

However, her reminding about that Roa can still harm the village with her votes strikes me as non-faithfulish... but Roa's game was pretty lost at that phase, so maybe she was just playing tactics...

(And
I have one little quibble for Lommy...
Sorry Durelin! I obviously manged to mix it up, because while I wrote that I was thinking of Rikae, since you both votes Mänwe early... Silly me.)

Durelin fails to convince me of her innocence. She seems as suspicious as TGWBS, and she now tops my suspicion list in a shared first place with him.

~*~

I'm a bit worried about silent people. Slip-under-the-radar-wolves are some of the horriblest things I know. But rather than lynching them (we have a too big wolf percent for that kind of luxuries) I'd urge and blackmail (;)) them to speak up. (Admittedly, that isn't always very effective.)

So: Brinniel, Hookbill, Gil, speak up! I know you all have some problems (need to read, computer porblems, parental problems), but please try.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Kitanna, it probably has more to do with the fact that I am a coward and come from a long line of cowards, its amazing I'm here at all. :p

I am going to try my hand at these character studies...

The right honorable Saucepan Man
He's had long experience in the game and strikes me as a guy who 'knows his onions' so to speak. As always he seems to try and keep a balance between openly accusing someone on a hunch and being logical and calculated. I liked his used of the phrase "Lembas-eating, Valar-loving surrender monkeys" :D
He votes for Rikae understandably from his explanation. Roa then attacks him fiercely, most probably with a large stick of some kind. I am not sure what to make of this, though (mainly because I don't really 'get' the role of the cobbler).
All in all, his posts seem very comprehensive and thorough, but something seems to rung untrue throughout and I cannot put my finger on it. Perhaps he is too good for his own good? Maybe I am reading too much into it, but he seems to be looking here and there for answers which either suggests an unsure faithful or an innocent looking for the faithfuls. As I type, it is beginning to look like the latter to me, but I shall keep an eye open.

Also, Manwe still has something odd about him. He keeps drawing attention here and there and this strikes me as a tad odd. This may be a cover, some sort of subtle use of a human, sorry, faithful shield for the other faithfuls or something. Draw all the fire to himself I suppose while not trying to be too overt. This is, of course, saying an awful lot and going on only a hunch, but its something to think about at the least.
Right, my time is up, back soon... hopefully.

[the guy who be short]

Well, here I am 1 and a bit hours earlier than I should be awake, because I'm not sure I can get onto this thread the rest of the day. Looks like an early vote from me, I'm afraid. And if I'm snappy, it's because of only 7 hours sleep, which is definitely not enough for one my age.

First, replies:

I do disagree with you on this somewhat. If we already have a terrifying number of those who can influence the vote why give them one more? And no one says we would have gotten a Faithful yesterDay anyhow, on the contrary the basic odds were against us. And it was not illogical, that was the beauty of Roa's game yesterDay: it was a perfectly possible scenario.

But let's not make an issue out of this as I do believe this breaks the lines of us innocents already...
I must make this an issue. So far, the wolves have killed nobody out of choice. Thus, voting records and past actions are the only things we have to analyse. All of yesterday was taken up with Roa, and so we have to look into people's reactions to her.

About Roa's vote: 1) She does not know who the wolves are, and so cannot help them much.
2) She would not vote for somebody she sincerely believed to be innocent (as a cobbler should) because then we would know who she thought was innocent.
3) She would not double-bluff and vote for a Faithful, because that would be dangerous for the faithful.
She would therefore be in a voting predicament, and her vote would be meaningless.

The odds were against us for getting a Faithful yesterday: they were 4/16, counting Nogrod and Rikae as known innocents. However, by voting Roa, some villagers decided it was better to have a 0 chance of getting a Faithful than a 25% chance. And of course, the sooner we get one Faithful, the sooner we can find the rest.

On the contrary, Roa's argument was illogical. If Rikae were a wolf pretending to be a Seer, the most sensible course of action would be to pretend two people were known innocents, thus gaining their trust. Why pretend to have dreamt of a cobbler? To cripple Roa? Why? Because she just happened to have accused one of them? Also, Rikae had been attacked the night before. We had only her word for this, but the chance of her lying was tiny, for that would mean the wolves had gone after somebody else AND the ranger had successfully protected this person. In addition, nobody attacked Rikae, claiming she could have been a wolf pretending to be the seer, on day 1 or early day 2. A real seer would at least have suggested this to try to throw suspicion on somebody who they would, in that scenario, be certain of being a wolf. It just didn't add up.

I've made the argument enough times. If people can't see what's in the best interests of the village, they are either misguided or Faithful.

We'd be so bogged down we wouldn't know what to think. Regardless of what people said about ignoring her, I don't think anyone actually did.I did, until the rest of the village decided to start entertaining the possibility that Roa might be telling the truth. :rolleyes:

TGWBS suggests a shortlist. This early on I'm not sure I agree.No, he doesn't. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.
Now that that's out the way, I can get to my analysis of Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel - She's way too silent to my taste. I understand she wants to do some research because she does not know our wwing styles, but still... She's very careful, she manages a consistency suspecting Hookbill and her votes are bandwagoning or safe. I can very easily see a newcomer wolf doing this.... (but on the other hand, I can see an innocent newcomer doing it too). I'll be watching her.

Durelin - see my last post.

Gil-Galad - I'm slightly annoyed by his playing style, but that's what happens always... :rolleyes: I think he's pretty genuine, though it's very difficult to say since there's so little to go on. If he's a wolf he'll be really dangerous, I'm afarid, since he manages to slip under the radar...

the guy who be short - I think I've pretty much said what I think about him. His suggestions are wolvish and so is his carefulness.

Hookbill the Goomba - It's difficult to read him. I don't like the fact that he hides behind his claimed bad reading of people and his (relative) newbieshness and that he spends most of the time either emphasising these or defending himself. This behaviour doesn't make him suspicious per se, since I don't know if he's always like that; that might be his playing style. And he doesn't give very faithfulish feel or anything. I just have the feeling that though his name is continuously brought up, he still manages to slip under the radar.

Kath - She's as she's always. Relatively silent, but helpful and contributing. Innocent or guilty. You can never decipher. She feels innocent, but one should not trust gut-feeling too much. If she's a wolf, she can be nailed after we've lynched some/one of her companions. According to my experiences, that is almost the only way to catch a kathwolf. I will take a closer look at her after we've got a wolf, but for now I'm ready to consider her innocent-ish.

Kitanna - I'm not sure if I trust her. She seems reasonable, yes. On the first Day she was mainly only agreeing and parroting. That made me wary. YesterDay and toDay she's been a bit different. But there's still something about her that does not sit right with me. I guess it might have something to do with her calm, sly manner, and I always tend to suspect her, at least a bit. If I have time toDay, I will take a closer look at her.

Lalaith - Hmmm... I dislike her NogGod-suggestions (and think them suspicious) and there's something weird about her (like the Day1 retraction which Nogrod pointed out)... But somehow the feel of her doesn't strike me as particularly suspicious. I don't know.

Legate of Amon Lanc - First Day, I thought he was very reasonable, calm and innocent-looking. Now I'm not too sure. Like someone said, he's a bit too quick to agree. What's funny is that while Rune became less suspicious about him after the long post yesterDay, I became more so. Somehow, it just didn't sit right with me. Yet there is some innocentishness in him too... A tough one.

Mänwe - I'm inclined to think he's innocent. Like Rune said, he's being too weird and making far too much mess to be a wolf.

Mithalwen - Another tough one. She feels innocent, but less than the last time I played with her. She's concentarting on things an innocent wouldn't maybe concentrate on (like the Roa-SPM-Nogrod triangle on Day1), but her consistence in demanding to lynch someone else than Roa (which I could very well understand) speaks for her innocence.

Nogrod - Known innocent.

Rune Son of Bjarne - I always tend to sympathise with him, and I don't know why. But in this game my initial feeling towards him has been less sympathic. Is my subconscious right? Is there something wrong with Rune? Might be. His Legate-case and his votes have been quite worriesome... But on the other hand, he has been very reasonable at times, and innocently reasonable, if you ask me.

The Saucepan Man - How much ever you others have debated about him, he has managed to slip under my radar. I have not formed a proper picture of him yet. I can't see anything that especially speaks for his innocence, nor anything that speaks for his guilt. He's reasonable and has good points, but that's what he does as a wolf as well.

Thinlómien - Obviously innocent.

~*~

While writing this, I realised my opinions about most people were "I don't know" or "a tough one" or "could be evil or good"... :rolleyes: Well, at least I learned I need more reread and more thinking. But it troubles me that I can't get a proper grasp on people.

EDIT: xed with Hookbill and TGWBS... avoided triple posting

[Thinlómien]

TGWBS's obvious grumpiness about people deciding to lynch Roa instead of trying to get a wolf slightly lessens my suspicions of him... :p

[the guy who be short]

Post 42 - Very neutral. She is the first person to cast suspicion on Rikae, I believe. If she were a Faithful, it would be a good chance to jump on a suspicious looking innocent.

Post 50 - Nothing

Post 54 - Votes Rikae.

Post 178 - Again, much neutrality, with a few mild suspicions.

Post 180 - Casts suspicion on Nogrod. Very neutrally, of course.

Post 182 - Voices slight suspicion of Hookbill.

Post 183 - Huge voting record. She then analyses these a little, in very weak language. "Slightly uneasy," "I don't know why," etc.

Post 185 - After Rikae has revealed roles, says she half-jokingly almost posted that Roa might be the cobbler. Perhaps a wolf who figured out the cobbler?

Post 187 - Attacks my idea of using Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. In her strongest words yet, attacks me as a potential wolf. As it is, my ideas are logical. Anything anybody says could be wolvish, including me and Lommy. However, nothing Nogrod says can be wolvish. It's therefore more sensible to heed Nogrod - so the wolves are forced to vote according to innocent logic - than to allow the wolves free reign.

Post 189 - Nothing.

Post 190 - Votes for me. Worries about durelin and Kitanna.

Post 321 - Attacks the idea of using Nogrod again. The point is not that his ideas are better or based on more knowledge, but that his ideas are not wolvish. If everybody votes according to them, they have to vote for somebody based on the reasoning of an innocent. They are not weird tactics! They make sense.

Post 322 - I think it's reasonable to assume that what Roa says is the opposite of what she means. Particularly, when she attacks somebody, I would say she definitely avoided attacking wolves.

There's not as much here pointing to wolvishness as I'd like there to be, if I'm perfectly honest. Perhaps my suspicion of Lommy was merely a knee-jerk reaction to her voting for me and attacking my idea of using known innocents.

I suppose the thing that disconcerts me most about Lommy is her neutrality and her carefulness not to accuse or defend anybody strongly (except me, Lal and durelin). Having no opinions about people is a cop-out. But I do not genuinely believe she is Faithful (though she may be) and so I cannot vote for her now, as I anticipated doing.

It is a shame I have no time today to analyse the people voting for Roa. I am certain now that I will find some Faithful among them. I'd only really trust Mith, other than me, to do this, and she probably wont have enough time either.

Looks like a no-vote from me today. Bye.

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#23 Defends Glirdan and his infamous first post by saying that he's always like that, says most of her points have been already brought up by others.
#30 Does not understand Mänwe's logic about grouping her, Roa, SPM and Nogrod. Demands an explanation.
#33 Criticises Mänwe for refusing to explain his actions. Corrects Mänwe's conception on what she said about Glirdan.
#90 Pops up and says that Rikae's vote caught her attention.
#96 Understands Rikae's vote but is unsure about what to think of it. Thinks Mänwe less suspicious. Points out that no one jumped against Gil's first post (as in comparison to the fuss about Glirdan's similar first post). Does not understand the "Mänwe is harsh"-thing. Is suspicious of Garin's vote and vote-switch and votes him.
Comments: I don't like her attitude towards Mänwe. Or let's phrase it diffrently: if Mänwe's a wolf, Kitanna is probably too. Not particularly suspicious, but definitely not too innocentish either. Also, that Garin-vote is quite an easy one. It's always to reason a vote against Garin, and I think Kitanna knows that.

Day2
#245 Again says that all she had to say is already said by others. (But obvioulsy not all really, since she continues.) Speculates about the cobbler-seer thing. "A lot of damage can be done the longer a cobbler is kept alive." Is not sure if believes Rikae's claim anymore, since she told us Roa's the cobbler, but advices us not to kill her. "I realize how bad this is for me to even dare to say this, but if Rikae is the seer she is giving us horrible advice." Repeats that Roa-cobbler should be eliminated. Says she thinks Roa probably is the cobbler, is confused about this. "I also know I've put myself in a dangerous spot." Again warns about letting Cobbler-Roa live.
No vote
Comments: I don't like her repeating that everything she has thought about has already been said. I also don't like her repeating manner. In that sole post, she says at least three times that Roa the cobbler must be eliminated. I don't like her two (2) "I'm in danger because I said this"-statements in the same post.

Day3
#320 Says she's decided to take a closer look at Hookbill, slightly analyses him, reaches the conclusion that he might be trying to cover his tracks and that she's unsure about him.
Comments: Hookbill? A good suspect-pick for a wolf, no doubt. He's been suspected a bit every now and then (so no one's going to says she's talking nonsense), but the case probably won't gather enough support for him to get lynched. But, on the other hand, there might really be something wrong with that Goomba-guy...

Overall conclusions: Kitanna is suspicious, but doesn't scream a wolf. I might vote her toDay. I still suspect Durelin and TGWBS more than her.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod, despite referring frequently to your suspicions of me, you have never really explained this "Spm theory".Okay I just have this much time between the lessons and I have thought I should tell you all why I have suspected Spm from Day1 onwards. You should consider whether it has any merit or not. I myself am a little disturbed by it to be honest, mainly because if we make a mistake with SPaM it would be about the worst one we could do...

So. I suspected Spm firstly and foremostly because he seemed to be playing in about exactly the same fashion I would have played if I were a faithful and knew him to be an innocent. We tend to think quite alike many times (surely not always) and share many views about playing this game. And I guess we both would like to get the other one lynched if we were werecreatures. And It would be important to make it in sportman-fashion: no Night kill for the other but getting the other lynched. Definitively.

So what do I see when he enters the game? He starts spreading some mild suggestions that I (and Roa) are to be suspected and seems to be deliberately building small mountains out of almost nonexistent molehills, indeed twisting some of my posting to suit his suspicions.

What's wrong with that? Making a fabricated case - a case in which you don't even believe yourself - is something the werecreatures do (they have to) but which wise villagers avoid doing. I mean, I think I could make pretty damning analyses by adding a few small twists from quite many of the villagers here. But what if someone believes them or the wolves start carrying them? That's no good for us. It's playing to the hands of the baddies. Thence a villager doesn't overstretch his points or make suspicions from nothing / twist things to make suspicions.

As I said, were I a Faithful in this game and knew Spm was not I would have done the things he has done so far. I mean all the rest too: after he would have disagreed with my points I would have stayed with my case and said it is as good an interpretation than which he offers and thence tried to start looking more constructive, focusing on other areas; and had I had Roa on me like he had, I would probably had tried to stay calm like he did etc.

One minor detail to add. I find it somewhat odd that Spm needs to remind us a few times that he's a "serial voter-for-gifteds", humorously to be sure (how else?) and from the very beginning on. Kind of downplaying any later incidents where he has been a major part in lynching innocents / gifteds? I don't know. Sounds unimportant (=might be just joking), but sometimes the Devil does live in the details. :rolleyes:

So I'm a bit troubled with this as I admit it ain't much for Day3 suspicion. Then again I haven't yet had time to read any closer his latest contributions toDay. So I will come back to Spm later, but I'm going to go for some others first as I would love to have better cases...

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here but haven't read through properly yet ..... still kicking myself for not seeing (though Roa clearly did, :rolleyes: ) that lynching the doomed Glirdan would have been the best option for the village last night.

[Durelin]

I don't think anyone else than the faithfuls are delighted to have the seer not dreamed about even one wolf before she dies. I mean, her attitude seems too joyful... While it's a good thing that the cobbler's nailed, Durelin seems a bit overjoyed... maybe because she and her companions are in no danger of being dreamed about anymore?

Okay, I hate *defensive* posts as much as the next person, but I have to respond to this. Lommy, hon, you've been the Seer before. So you know how awesome it is to get one of the baddies that early on. And I could not imagine being the Seer with that large of a crowd to sift through at the start! Rikae was outed on Day 1...that's only two dreams. So I went into Day 2 with the belief that we'd simply have two ousted innocents, who'd get systematically killed at Night (though the Ranger would have helped with that, I suppose). To me, getting a baddy of any sort seems better, though I guess that is debatable. There would have been jumping up and down involved if she had managed to dream of a wolf. I would likely have tackled her.


Possibly, therefore, a Faithful Durelin was testing the waters for a possible lynch campaign against Manwe.

Actually it was Innocent Durelin seeing if she could get people to wake up a bit. I thought I'd get more negative reaction out of that vote then, rather than two days later.

Alright, school time...*whines about her Hamlet test as she wanders out*

[The Saucepan Man]

So what do I see when he enters the game? He starts spreading some mild suggestions that I (and Roa) are to be suspected and seems to be deliberately building small mountains out of almost nonexistent molehills, indeed twisting some of my posting to suit his suspicions. I understood this part of the case, but was unclear on the specifics. Looking back, I see that you outlined your case in post #82. Since I didn’t get a chance to respond to your points then, I will do so now.

It looks like he is grasping at every straw he can twist.I was certainly grasping at straws. Isn’t that what people do on Day 1? Given that there is so little to go on, anything slightly suspicious can get our alarm bells ringing. But I wasn’t twisting. I genuinely thought that you looked suspicious (particularly your reaction to my “bearting” comment), and so outlined those suspicions.

Then he goes on adding that remarkable suspicion that Kath and I are up to no good as we had voiced some optimism because of the basic setting of the game. Cheery, optimistic statements like that always tweak my “suspicion radar“. Another example is Durelin’s joyful reaction toDay to the outcome of the Rikae/Roa situation.

I mean what is this? How does this relate to anything? How do people act in a state of "false security" and what follows from that? Sorry but I just don't get this. If on the other hand SPaM is only trying to come up with anything someone might bite, then it would be more understandable.I would not underestimate the importance of psychology in Werewolf. An optimistic statement by an influential player that the odds are in our favour can have a psychological effect on the minds of others and so invite carelessness. It looked to me like a seemingly innocent-looking opening comment that might have malign purpose behind it.

So long as the lynch is not bent towards one of them it's pretty much the same to the were-faithfuls who is lynched. Why risk making an open campaign? But only if there is something like a big fish to be lynched.My theory concerning those outlining early suspicions of Manwe and Glirdan was (and remains, with regard to Manwe) that some of the Faithful may have been “testing the waters” to see if a lynch campaign might be orchestrated. As I have said, concerning Manwe, I actually find those who outlined suspicions and then withdrew from them to be, on reflection, of greater concern than those who actually placed early votes for him.

One final point. You may be right that a Faithful was trying to stir suspicions of you in an attempt to take out an influential innocent, but I would expect them to do so subtly. Lommy’s comments in posts #42, #178 and #180 might be worth considering in this regard.

And now I will get on with my analysis of the Day 2 votes.

[Mithalwen]

It is a shame I have no time today to analyse the people voting for Roa. I am certain now that I will find some Faithful among them. I'd only really trust Mith, other than me, to do this, and she probably wont have enough time either.

Looks like a no-vote from me today. Bye.

I might ... but not til a bit later ... certainly it was in their interests to have her dead since she was effectiely neutralised :D

Also it may be worth looking at Roa's analysis - with "eyes wide open". Even as a wolf in previous games her summaries were accurate, just "slanted". I have a theory that it is very hard for people to do things deliberately badly which they normally do well. So I suggest that Roa's facts willprobably be right but the devil will be in the detail ie the interpretation or what she has omitted. And remembering that she was working on what she had read rather than the certainty she would have had as a faithful.

[Mithalwen]

I stand by my decision to try and "save Roa". Roa was certainly NOT a wolf. Anyone else MIGHT have been a wolf. If you have a chance against a certain failure why is it so suspicious to choose the chance. As I say my only regret was not recognising the significance of the Glirdan situation til too late.

I have had a suspicion of SpM since day 1 since he was one of those who got hung up on my first post.. but as I say suspecting Sauce is fairly habitual for me (though sometimes justified :p )

I don't intend to justify myself further. I am innocent and would rather use my time to look at the rest of you.

[Thinlómien]

1) lynching the doomed Glirdan would have been the best option for the village last night.I fail to see the logic here. Glirdan was doomed to die, yes. But the village lynches' purpose is to make the wolves extinct, right? Lynching an innocent doomed to die surely does not help to achieve that. I agree with you that lynching Roa yesterday was not the best cause, but, like TGWBS, I think the lynch should have been used to try to eliminate a wolf.

2) Durelin, your defense is understandable, but I think it's just about the interpretation and the interpretator were you really overjoyed or just being happy since the seer was doing relatively well. So maybe we should leave the thing be. :) I think the way I do, and you the way you do. Of course, you're the one who knows the truth, but I can't take your word for it.

3) You may be right that a Faithful was trying to stir suspicions of you in an attempt to take out an influential innocent, but I would expect them to do so subtly. Lommy’s comments in posts #42, #178 and #180 might be worth considering in this regard.Sauce, do you seriously think that I, of all people in this world, would imagine that such argumentative power as Nogrod can be brought down with a few quick remarks? :p

[The Saucepan Man]

I am not sure how much help this is going to be, given the way that the Day went, but there might be something here.

Here's the voting record again, for ease of reference:

Gil-Galad: ++SpM (SpM 1)
Lommy: ++TGWBS (SpM 1, TGWBS 1)
Brinniel: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1)
SpM: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 1)
Lalaith: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 2)
Rune: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 2)
Kath: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3)
Roa: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
Mithalwen: ++SpM (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Roa: --Roa, ++SpM (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3, Brinniel 1)
Durelin: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Manwe ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 5, Brinniel 1)
Legate: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1)
Rikae: ++Mithalwen (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Nogrod: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 7, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Rikae: --Mithalwen, ++Legate (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 3, Roa 7, Brinniel 1)

Did not vote: Glirdan, Hookbill, Kitanna

Roa voters: SpM, Lalaith, Kath, Roa (retracted), Durelin, Manwe, Legate, Nogrod

As I have said, I believe that lynching Roa was our best option for the Day. I still don't understand the reasoning that says it is better to vote for someone who is something like 75% likely to be innocent, when a vote can be cast for someone who is 99.9% likely to be the Cobbler. Maybe it is just my conservative nature ...

Incidentally, Mith, the possibility of lynching Glirdy did not occur to me either, but wasn’t there still a possibility that he would be given a reprieve?

That said, given the numbers, it is extremely unlikely that there were no Faithfuls among those that voted for Roa. Despite contributing to the loss of their Cobbler, a vote for Roa would have been a “safe” vote. It was always a likely outcome, so I would expect them to have placed their votes relatively early, where they could hope to gain some credit, but could still retract if necessary. In this regard, the votes of Lalaith and Kath look to me to be the most likely Faithful-on-Cobbler votes. Durelin’s vote is also a possibility.

SpM voters: Gil-Galad, Roa, Mithalwen

Well, I don’t like Gil’s reasoning (such as it is), but there’s not much more to say on his vote other than that. Gil has said precious little to judge him by, but he always plays like that, guilty or innocent. I am not sure what to do about him. On the one hand, I rather agree with whoever said that our situation is rather too precarious to go off on a “lynch the silent ones” campaign. On the other hand, there is something like a 1 in 4 chance that he’s a Faithful.

As I indicated earlier, I am wary of Mith’s attempts to prevent Roa’s lynching and I don’t like the reasons she put forward for me being the alternative (the “quibble” and my vote for Roa). That said, I do think that she was being far more obvious in trying to save Roa than I would expect a Faithful would be.

Legate voters: Brinniel, Rune, Rikae

Of those who did not vote for Roa, I find those who were not overtly pushing for her to be saved the more suspicious. I don’t fully understand the suspicion of Legate, as the evidence seems a bit thin. It seems to amount to no more than his intervention in the Hookbill/Brinniel episode (which I think really amounted to much fuss and bother over nothing) and the fact that he has been “reasonable“. Brinniel also didn’t like the fact that Legate found her suspicious, and thought it odd? Why? It is the most natural thing in the world, in a game of Werewolf, to be found suspicious, even when innocent. It happens to us all! :D

Both Brinniel and Rune appear to have thought it more likely than not that Roa was lying, and yet voted for someone who might be guilty or might be innocent, seemingly on very little evidence. I am fairly sure that one of these two is a Faithful. Possibly, they both are, given that Rune has said on a number of occasions that he finds Brinniel suspicious, but has never voted for her. Possibly, Legate and one of these two are Faithfuls, since, with Roa the most likely to be lynched, this would have been a good time for a Faithful-on-Faithful vote. I am inclined, at present, to think Legate innocent, though.

Others:

Lommy for TGWBS - Thin grounds (no pun intended ;)). TGWBS had suggested taking account of the fact that Nogrod and Rikae were known (or almost certain, in Rikae’s case) innocents, and that their thoughts were therefore the only ones (other than our own) we could be sure were untainted. That seems to be an entirely reasonable proposition to me, and yet she voted yesterDay on the basis of it. That and the fact that she found TGWBS was being “careful“, a conveniently vague and unsubstantiated statement. Also, she appears to have accepted that Roa was the Cobbler, yet gave no thought to voting for her.

TGWBS for Brinniel - I don’t like the way that TGWBS was trying to persuade the village not to vote for Roa, and in a more subtle manner than Mith. Yet, it was still a risky strategy for a Faithful. His vote for Brinniel is reasoned on both he and Rikae finding her suspicious. Not sure, but I don’t find anything overly suspicious about this vote, other than the fact that it was not for Roa.

I agree with Mith that looking at Roa’s analyses with “eyes wide open” might well be productive, and I am wary of those who have suggested otherwise. I will try to do so later. TGWBS’ simple “reverse psychology” approach is just that - too simple. However, I do believe that she thought Nogrod to be a Faithful and me to be an innocent (so she got one thing right :D). Other than that, I suspect that she that she is unlikely to have wanted to draw much attention to any she thought were Faithfuls.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sauce, do you seriously think that I, of all people in this world, would imagine that such argumentative power as Nogrod can be brought down with a few quick remarks?No, but I can imagine you indulging in a little stirring ...

[The Saucepan Man]

I have attempted to collate my somewhat jumbled thoughts on the voting into some kind of coherent order. So, here is my current thinking, based mainly upon my analysis of the voting:

Suspicious
Lalaith - the mistress of “safe votes”
Durelin - for some curious voting on Day 1 and a possible “safe” Roa vote on Day 2
Rune - for possibly testing the water on Manwe and a suspicious Day 2 vote
Brinniel - also for that Day 2 vote, and for seemingly trying to say little controversial
Lommy - for a suspicious Day 2 vote

Somewhat suspicious
TGWBS - for urging the village not to vote for Roa
Kitanna - for possibly testing the water on Manwe and also seemingly avoiding controversy

No idea
Kath
Gil-Galad
Hookbill

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe - for reasons previously stated
Legate - I tend to think that reasonableness is just that, without more
Mithalwen - her approach to the Roa issue looks to be too bold for her

Innocent
Nogrod

This is really just based on the voting and general impressions, and there’s a lot more that I want to look at before I draw any firm conclusions.

[Brinniel]

Indeed, I admit I am a quiet one, but as I am a newcomer you all must learn that this is simply my style....as an innocent of course. :D

Brinniel also didn’t like the fact that Legate found her suspicious, and thought it odd? Why? It is the most natural thing in the world, in a game of Werewolf, to be found suspicious, even when innocent. It happens to us all!
Hmm...I'm not sure where you get this impression. After Legate's first suspicion of me, on post 49 I merely clarified what I said. I never showed any sign I was upset...I just defended myself as anyone would.

Anyways, I was thinking (perhaps in my newbie way) that it would become easier to pick out the Faithful as the Days go by, but now it is only beginning to seem even more difficult. Those I feel most suspicious of aren't posting toDay as much as I would like, and it's slightly frustrating. I am hopping on a plane today, so I must make my vote within the hour, and I have no idea whom to pick just yet...

I wish I could be around for the exciting last few hours, but unfortunately that just cannot be. So if anyone has more to say...say it now!

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm...I'm not sure where you get this impression. After Legate's first suspicion of me, on post 49 I merely clarified what I said. I never showed any sign I was upset...I just defended myself as anyone would.I had in mind this comment in #207:

And the more and more I am becoming suspicious of Legate. From his last post, he seems to think no one is suspicious and I find that a bit odd.... but I misread it. Apologies.

It doesn't really change my assessment, though.

[Brinniel]

I am starting to belive Mänwe innocent. . .the more I think about it the more it makes sence. I mean, I have hardly ever witnessed a wolf act downright weird or stand out like Garin did, mostly when people get in the spot like in that fashion they get lynched and are odros. The wolves I only spot on small things and therefor I shall focus on these things rahter than people that stands out like Mänwe.
I find it odd that though Rune doesn't think those who stand out like Garin are Faithfuls, he still voted for him.

Even now when all evidence points towards her being the cobbler she mannage to put doubts in my mind.
Did Roa really making you doubt Rikae's word, or are you just saying that?

Even though I didn't vote for Roa, I still believed she was the cobbler. But it was a Faithful I wanted to lynch! Rune's statement could easily come from a Faithful who wants to trick innocents into doubting Rikae as well. Of course, as discussed, he was not the only one to place doubts...

Rune seems to be full of uncertainty. He claims in post 319 he has poor judgement, and perhaps as a Faithful, this is what he would want us to think. I am definitely beginning to question him more and more...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, let's move in the day. First, to Nogrod's first posts and the discussion following: I think it is not good to consider only a "shortlist", as Lalaith and tgwbs adviced. But Nogrod could be of help and we'd do best to "judge" our own thoughts or suspicions in the light of the one innocent's thoughts. Because, if you move your thoughts through the points of Nogrod and re-think them, it is likely you find something that might correct your thoughts. When, of course, it's everyone's job to do so for himself. But if all the villagers do that, I think it might help to shrug off the tangles of misleading hints of the Faithfuls.

One first thought about Mithalwen:
(Mithalwen)'s concentarting on things an innocent wouldn't maybe concentrate on (like the Roa-SPM-Nogrod triangle on Day1), but her consistence in demanding to lynch someone else than Roa (which I could very well understand) speaks for her innocence.
Actually, I don't think this would make her innocent. I think it might as well either have served her to keep Roa alive to help the Faithfuls vote (less likely), or served her to hide behind "being different" (under the candle is the least light, or if this proverb exists in English).
We can kill Roa anytime , we need dead wolves.... we would be better off lynching a non participant.
I stand by my decision to try and "save Roa". Roa was certainly NOT a wolf. Anyone else MIGHT have been a wolf. If you have a chance against a certain failure why is it so suspicious to choose the chance.
There is a third thought, however, that is convincing us to quickly change our votes from Roa to someone else - and trying to pick someone else instead of Roa (even more in such a rush) might mean picking an innocent as well, and if we picked an innocent, it would have been a triple-kill for the wolves.
It is something I have to think more of, since Mithalwen has been already debated at start, where I didn't find her suspicious. This time it seems to me, however, something different.

Both Brinniel and Rune appear to have thought it more likely than not that Roa was lying, and yet voted for someone who might be guilty or might be innocent, seemingly on very little evidence. I am fairly sure that one of these two is a Faithful. Possibly, they both are, given that Rune has said on a number of occasions that he finds Brinniel suspicious, but has never voted for her. Possibly, Legate and one of these two are Faithfuls, since, with Roa the most likely to be lynched, this would have been a good time for a Faithful-on-Faithful vote.
The last can be dropped, SpM, I am really not a Faithful. But after considering this idea, it occurs to me it might have something in it. Because: unless the Faithful completely missed this voting, then it is three innocent going against themselves. But, if one of us three were to be a Faithful, then I'd be most suspicious about Brinniel. The main point is that in her posts she generally just throws a suspicion, or hints something which might then be used to rouse suspicion, and that's mostly all. If she were a Faithful, it would indeed serve its purpose.

EDIT: Cross-posted with the Saucepan Man and Brinniel.

[Nogrod]

I would like to remind us all of the following...

We have two conflicting opinions of known innocents on the matter of whether it is/was good to lynch a known Cobbler yesterDay or not. Rikae thought it a terrible idea and I thought it good for the village.

I would advise you not to make too much of an issue of it as we already know that innocents can disagree on the matter. If someone will go looking at the Faithfuls solely or mainly on the basis of whether someone wished Roa to be lynched or not we'll bog down in an argument that already seems to divide innocents. And that suits the Faithfuls more than well.

And I would find it quite incredible indeed that all of our wolves would be so much better at arriving to the conclusion for what was best for them & trying to make it happen that way in action yesterDay... No way.

-------
Okay. I've read all there has been toDay. I need to give it some thought and probably soon give the computer to Lommy and go making us some dinner. I'll try to post a few small thoughts next. I'll come around with some more extensive contributions a bit later.

[The Saucepan Man]

I would advise you not to make too much of an issue of it as we already know that innocents can disagree on the matter.But Nogrod, it is rather difficult to draw any kind of a conclusion from the Day 2 votes without forming a view on this issue. Perhaps that was Roa's genius ...

I have to take into account that I think it more in the Faithful's interests to try to save Roa when looking at those votes. Then again, the voting record is not the be all and end all.

[Brinniel]

The main point is that in her posts she generally just throws a suspicion, or hints something which might then be used to rouse suspicion, and that's mostly all.
Hmm...am I doing that? Perhaps... Well, I've never been a very good debator so perhaps throwing out suspicions is my best way to argue. I guess I'm not very good at this...

But to be very honest, all the suspicions I've thrown out so far are suspicions that I truly believe in. As I said before, I tend to go off hunches, which as I realize, can really hurt me here.

[Brinniel]

Okay, as much as I hate to, I've really got to make my vote now, or I'll miss my plane!

If any of my comments/votes seem odd or safe or whatever, most likely it's because I'm rushed and not exactly thinking clearly. Luckily, the end of my crazy week ends toDay, so if you want a better judge in character, I suggest keeping me around another day. :p

So here's my vote:

++Rune

For reasons I've stated earlier. Legate and Hookbill still don't look innocent, but today they're looking less suspicious, and Rune is looking more so.

Good luck to you all! I sure hope we actually catch a Faithful today. And I'll be back toMorrow, as long as I'm still alive...

[Lalaith]

It was always a likely outcome, so I would expect them to have placed their votes relatively early, where they could hope to gain some credit, but could still retract if necessary. In this regard, the votes of Lalaith and Kath look to me to be the most likely Faithful-on-Cobbler votes. Durelin’s vote is also a possibility.
And, my dear Saucie, you yourself fall very neatly into this category. You should really have, in the cause of fairness, pointed this out yourself.

Oh and I did not advise a Nogrod-led lynching or shortlist. I said we should discuss the possibility and/or other uses of a known innocent.
More to come in a minute when I have read the thread more thoroughly.

[the guy who be short]

I have found literally five minutes online.

So: I think SpM is right when he says we should looks at those who were neither strongly against or strongly for lynching Roa. And so:

++BRINNIEL

I must also add that I do not understand mith at all. I thought her Faithful to start with, then innocent for trying not to lynch Roa, now Faithful again for the Glirdan comment. How would that help us? It goes against the rationale she gave for opposing voting for Roa.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am growing more suspicouse of Lommy, especially her attack Lalaiths "alternative" tactics I don't like. First of all I find it a reasonable tactic to sugest and think it is more likely than not to be sugested by an innocent. Secondly I find it troublesome to be susupicouse of people meerly because they have differnet and sometimes crazy approaches to finding wolves, by doing so you are also making it easier for wolves to hide and therefor should be a subject to your own suspicion!

If we scare people away from coming up with new ideas then the game will become more static and predictable and therefor much easier to play for the wolves.

I know this is a bit bombastic, but I am just trying to make a point.

Brinniel Said:

I find it odd that though Rune doesn't think those who stand out like Garin are Faithfuls, he still voted for him.

Did Roa really making you doubt Rikae's word, or are you just saying that?

Even though I didn't vote for Roa, I still believed she was the cobbler. But it was a Faithful I wanted to lynch! Rune's statement could easily come from a Faithful who wants to trick innocents into doubting Rikae as well. Of course, as discussed, he was not the only one to place doubts...

Rune seems to be full of uncertainty. He claims in post 319 he has poor judgement, and perhaps as a Faithful, this is what he would want us to think. I am definitely beginning to question him more and more...

Today 05:02 PM

If you read my post you will find that I say that I am starting to find Mänwe less suspicoise, this is to say that it is a realisation I have just made and therfor was not a part of my thought process when I voted for Garin.

Well, I was pretty sure that Rikae was the one telling the truth, but Roa's first responses did put a bit of doubt in my mind.

I find some of you suspicion a bit silly, it might be because you have not played with me before, but I am always very unsure about what to do in large parts of the game. Normaly I do not retaliate to suspicion by suspecting back, but I am very tempted right now.

another thing about Lommy. . .I found it weird how she reacted to Miths statement about it would have been better to kill Glirdan. Again this could be because I agree with Mith.

[Nogrod]

I think no one should start toDay what some started yesterday: trying to find clues from Roa's posts. It's just useless. She's cunning enough to make the posts misleading and as she had no real information, the analyser would be wasting his/her time.

Except if s/he was a faithful? I can't see anyone else having a motive to analyse Roa's posts. A faithful could use this to sway the discussion, confuse the village and to look helpful.Although Spm had pretty strong opinions to the contrary I think Lommy makes sense here. I've played with Roa enough to know beforehand that there is no straight way to interpret her posting and the only ones who could clearly benefit from analysing them and making a convincing-looking case from there would be ones who knew how things are aka the Faithfuls. At least I will be quite sceptical with the finds anyone comes by from them.

Just note the following f.ex.:However, I do believe that she (Roa) thought Nogrod to be a Faithful and me to be an innocentFunny. I had just the oppositie impression... and I even think I would have grounds for it based on general Cobblery and some knowledge of the ways Roa works... :D


But Nogrod, it is rather difficult to draw any kind of a conclusion from the Day 2 votes without forming a view on this issue. Perhaps that was Roa's genius ...I know and agree with Roa playing well yesterDay... But what I basically meant with my comment was that we should not focus in a way that "because X wished to lynch Roa" (or didn't wish to), s/he must be suspicious.

F.ex. what you said about there probably being wolves in the group of Roa-voters yesterDay sounds perfectly legitimate approach to me. Indeed there are only 6 unknown Roa-voters and it wouldn't be too far fetched to suppose that we just might have a chance of having two of the Faithfuls there and surely at least one.

[Nogrod]

So: I think SpM is right when he says we should looks at those who were neither strongly against or strongly for lynching Roa. I do also agree. Detachement as I discussed on Day1. Especially those who made no comments on the burning issue but just left their votes safely ducking the heat...

But now really I'm off to do some cooking. Back later.

[Kitanna]

The power or the internet around here may or may not shut down today due to blizzards. So, I am going to vote now just in case everything shuts down and I can't get back on. Though I will be on as long as I can rereading the thread, therefore my vote may well change before days ends.

++ Hookbill

I don't like how he reinforces his bad judge of character and how he hides behind this mask of newbieness. I could understand one or two posts from Day 1, but in most of his posts he takes the time to remind us he doesn't read people too well. I feel he is trying to get us to look away from him because of this. Playing a "weak" faithful, if you will. Coming into the village, looking uncertain, flying under everyone's radar. I'm very interested to see how he votes today.

[The Saucepan Man]

And, my dear Saucie, you yourself fall very neatly into this category. You should really have, in the cause of fairness, pointed this out yourself.I am well aware of that, and should have thought that it was perfectly obvious from the voting chart. It's hardly helpful for me to analyse my own votes. I shall leave that to others to do.

At least I will be quite sceptical with the finds anyone comes by from them.I am simply suggesting that there may be something useful there. I am not suggesting that they are likely to form the basis of a case. Since Roa has already been "outed" by the time I arrived on Day 2, I never really read them in any great detail, merely skimmed. Still, I am not sure that I will have much of a chance toDay, as I am more focussed currently on looking at what those still with us have said.

Funny. I had just the oppositie impression... and I even think I would have grounds for it based on general Cobblery and some knowledge of the ways Roa works... I would find it quite surprising for Roa to go quite so aggressively against one she thought to be a Faithful, unless she planned on dying quite early on (the double-bluff maneuvre). She could not know that Rikae would dream of her. But let's agree to disagree and leave it at that for now. I certainly agree that Roa's thoughts, even if we could be sure of them, would by no means by decisive.

[Thinlómien]

I remember I've argued about this kind of matters with Sauce before... It just seems he never gets my point (or then he's always deliberatedly twisting my words, but why would he, since he's not always guilty).

TGWBS had suggested taking account of the fact that Nogrod and Rikae were known (or almost certain, in Rikae’s case) innocents, and that their thoughts were therefore the only ones (other than our own) we could be sure were untainted. That seems to be an entirely reasonable proposition to me, and yet she voted yesterDay on the basis of it. I was not agaisnt heeding Nogrod's and Rikae's advice, on the contrary. I was only against them nominating the lynch candidates or people taking their word for the absolute truth.

she appears to have accepted that Roa was the Cobbler, yet gave no thought to voting for her.I did give it thought, but didn't write about it. Mostly because I didn't really ponder about it, but thought it's obviously a better option at this phase to try to lynch a wolf than to lynch a cobbler. There is and has been a major disagreement about this here. I will speak no more of it. It has already taken too much of our concentration away from finding faithfuls. There's no use to speculate about it anymore since there was only one cobbler in this game and she's dead.

No, but I can imagine you indulging in a little stirring ...And you can't imagine me indulging in a "little stirring" when innocent? ;) Seriously, I was not a faithful indulging in such, neither an innocent indulging in such. I was an innocent pointing out weird things.

Sauce, reading your posts I get the impression that every single vote yesterDay was suspicious in your opinion. You accuse those who voted Roa and those who didn't. While it's good to question and suspect people in werewolf, a total paranoia never helps, especially when it comes from a person who is capable of argumenting the village upside down.

Originally Posted by Roa
Funny. I had just the oppositie impression... and I even think I would have grounds for it based on general Cobblery and some knowledge of the ways Roa works... Teehee! Freudian slip.

~*~

I find Brinn's points about Rune very reasonable. This kind of eases my suspicions of her.

Secondly I find it troublesome to be susupicouse of people meerly because they have differnet and sometimes crazy approaches to finding wolves,I have nothing against people using their own strategies to find wolves... (Or wait, I do have, but this is not about that anyway... :rolleyes: :p) Why I'm genrally very against the tactic(s) suggested by TGWBS and Lalaith that I disagree with is that they are not merely crazy individual wolf-spotting tactics, but crazy lynching strategies that concern all of us and need co-operation and thus are far more problematic.

~*~

I have a nagging feeling that I might be suspecting people only/mostly because I disagree with them. It really bothers me. I mean, SPM has striked me as very suspicious toDay and I certainly disagree with him about many matters...

TGWBS might fall to this category too, but I'm not ready to discount his suspiciousness because of our disagreements. I think he acts like a faithful would or what would be wise for a faithful. But he tends to have these strong tactics-suggestions (and I tend to disagree with them), but, like I've said before, usually as an ordo he's more ruthless. He's been uncharacteristically careful and cool-headed... My reason shouts "lynch him!" but in some level my gut-feelings say he might be innocent after all. *sigh* Damn this werewolf.

~*~

I'm very confused about this all. I wish I had a clearer picture about this. My suspicions are in all directions in varying degrees, (but I'm not very confident about any of them).

[The Saucepan Man]

I was not agaisnt heeding Nogrod's and Rikae's advice, on the contrary. I was only against them nominating the lynch candidates or people taking their word for the absolute truth.It seems to me that the former is little different than TGWBS was suggesting. So you see, you really don't have any disagreement with him, after all. :D

Sauce, reading your posts I get the impression that every single vote yesterDay was suspicious in your opinion.Not really. I was commenting on the votes as I saw them. You can see from my subsequent list where these thoughts led me.

You accuse those who voted Roa and those who didn't.Yes, I believe that at least one, quite possibly two, Faithfuls voted for Roa and that the remainder didn't. It seems to me very unlikely indeed that the Faithfuls were all either in one "camp" or the other.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Funny. I had just the oppositie impression... and I even think I would have grounds for it based on general Cobblery and some knowledge of the ways Roa works...

Teehee! Freudian slip.Not sure I understand this. Wasn't it Nogrod who said that?

[The Saucepan Man]

Not sure I understand this. Wasn't it Nogrod who said that?Sorry. I get the point. Not so much Freudian as brain-fade ... :D

[Mithalwen]

She could not know that Rikae would dream of her. .

But given her reputation she could expect to be high on any Seer's list of people to dream about. We know that she is one of the most feared players of the game. Look at how many wanted her dead even when she was exposed - next time if you want not to be distracted by a living but known cobbler, please consider just putting them on your ignore list for the remainder of the game :rolleyes: . I am sure she probably regarded herself as lucky not to have been first choice.

[Lalaith]

I’ve got some thoughts together. They are somewhat based on previous WW experience (and partly influenced by Nogrod’s quiz in his WW game) as well as the current game.

Brinniel - I’ve got very little experience of her. But the smooth dark-horse routine that others have commented on is a bit suspect. I don’t like the way that she seems to pick up the gauntlet Saucie throws down in post 336, voting for Rune almost as if she was dared to.

Durelin – she is someone who I traditionally tend to suspect. I’ve been trying to fight against this and view her in an unbiased way. But there’s willful confusion in her posts, and that “yay!” is a classic wolf-post intro. I’m not happy.

Gil-Galad – Being much the same as always. That daft remark about Glirdan leads me to think he is probably innocent.

the guy who be short – Again, someone whose style I tend to find suspicious. But what tends to happen when I play with tgwbs is that I start off finding him very odd and suspicious and then my suspicions wear off. I will wait and see if this happens in this game.

Hookbill the Goomba – I know the breezy air is making people feel edgy but there’s an air of sincerity about his posts, I think.

Kath – A scary, scary girl (quack!) but I seek consolation in this comment about Roa which feels somewhat innocent:
think it would be worth killing her. Firstly we're rid of a most confusing influence, and second the thread will get a good bit shorter

Kitanna: I’m never sure what to make of her and like Kath she's someone who can act the same whether she's wolf or innocent. So far, in this game, she feels sort-of-ok.

Legate of Amon Lanc – Hmmm. The smoothly helpful newbie. Needs watching.

Mänwe – the stroppy noisiness on the first day was odd. Again, needs watching.

Mithalwen – is really puzzling me. Conversely to guy and durelin, she is someone I naturally incline to trust in ww. I know she can be jumpy, but there's something that just doesn't feel right. However, I’ll hold and wait on her for a while.

Rune Son of Bjarne – Another one I'm naturally suspicious of. But actually, I don't find him especially suspicious at the moment.

The Saucepan Man – I always fear Saucie as a matter of principle, so I’ve been looking at him closely. He is not the Cobbler in this game – thank goodness. But I’m a bit worried about this:
So, I find myself rather wary of those who voted other than for Roa
Then, later, his top two suspects are people who did vote for Roa. At around the same time as him. Go figure.
Actually, I’m inclined to think a wolvish Saucie would be more cautious and consistent than this. But I’m going to continue scrutinising closely.

Thinlómien – I do incline to trust Lommy so I've been trying to treat her with sceptism to counter this. However, in this game I am finding her innocent. Her point about no trail for kills was a good one, as is this: think no one should start toDay what some started yesterday: trying to find clues from Roa's posts. It's just useless. She's cunning enough to make the posts misleading and as she had no real information, the analyser would be wasting his/her time.
Furthermore, her analyses of people are roughly in accordance with mine, which I’ve always found a good indicator of innocence.

So –
Probably innocent – Lommy, Gil.
Possibly innocent – Kath, Kitanna, Hookbill, Rune
Watching: Brinniel, Legate, Manwe

Not happy about – Mith, twgbs, Saucie.

Most suspicious - Durelin

[the guy who be short]

I've just found out I can stay here for a while - probably until just before the voting deadline. Which means I can finally get down to a few analyses.

Firstly, I suppose I must agree with Nogrod about innocents being on both sides of the "lynch-Roa" campaign. I still think those trying to kill her were illogical, but I suppose this isn't grounds for lynching.

However, I will say this about Roa: Her claim that Rikae was not the seer were absurd. I reproduce my argument from post 324:

Roa's argument was illogical. If Rikae were a wolf pretending to be a Seer, the most sensible course of action would be to pretend two people were known innocents, thus gaining their trust. Why pretend to have dreamt of a cobbler? To cripple Roa? Why? Because she just happened to have accused one of them? Also, Rikae had been attacked the night before. We had only her word for this, but the chance of her lying was tiny, for that would mean the wolves had gone after somebody else AND the ranger had successfully protected this person. In addition, nobody attacked Rikae, claiming she could have been a wolf pretending to be the seer, on day 1 or early day 2. A real seer would at least have suggested this to try to throw suspicion on somebody who they would, in that scenario, be certain of being a wolf. It just didn't add up.
Now, it seemed to me that, due to the points above, nobody would take Roa seriously. However, people did, and that is very odd. I suspect that perhaps those who began to take Roa seriously were Faithful, trying to sow yet more confusion and waste the day. If a few people (Faithful) expressed doubts, this would probably induce others (who were innocent) to begin doubting Rikae. So, I suspect those who first expressed doubt in Rikae:

Post 195 is when Roa claimed Rikae was lying. Those to express doubts of Rikae, in order, were:

Manwe, post 203. Now this is very interesting!
I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.What few others? Before this there was no doubt that Rikae was the Seer. Now, suddenly, according to Manwe, there are "a few others" who doubt her. This looks wolvish to me, as if being the first to express doubr in Rikae (as he does in the rest of his post) were not enough.

The next is Rune, post 204. While he expressed doubt in Rikae, it is not to the same extent as Manwe, who devoted a whole post to it. Rune also mentions other suspects he has. But still, this doesn't sit entirely well with me. He also says that the "safest action to take" is to "let Roa live for at least another day." I agree with that... but he doesn't say why! Does he have a reason?

Nogrod, post 205 - Known innocent, he expressed only the minutest doubt.



SpM and Brinniel, meanwhile, express faith in Rikae. This is consistent with my belief that the former is innocent, and also lessens my doubt of the latter. Durelin also Kath also express faith in Rikae, which I think supports their innocence.


I must leave the analysis half done for I am being caleld away. To be finished shortly.

[Nogrod]

Back again... and short on time as we all are (but I still have to share my time with Lommy here). But as I'm going to be around the next Day too I'd be ready to make a sort of compromise and narrow my view for toDay just to ease the task. There are enough of those Faithfuls left to make this move.

So I will not suggest we lynch toDay any of the newbies as this is just a game after all and should be fun. It would be nice to give the newcomers a good taste of this and be good sports. If someone comes up with a convincing case against one of them, I'm ready to reconsider.

So I'll leave out from my considerations toDay:
Brinniel
Hookbill the Goomba
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe

With maths there should be one wolf in there and I wouldn't be surprised if there actually was. But there are three (at least two) in the remaining players as well.

Of the rest I would jump over Gil-Galad as well. Now he maybe a Faithful but getting into the bottom of that would be pure guessing. I would like go with a case of some kind toDay anyhow.

I think I will be looking at Durelin and tgwbs next. As I've said earlier I would love to have them both on our side but I have a bad feeling that at least another one of them is not. But I'll remind you, up to now it's only a feeling or a hunch. Nothing more. I'll try to see if I can find anything to back it or no.

Kath I'm afraid, as I'm always and even though I felt pretty good with Kitanna earlier I've began to get a bit worried about her too. Still I would kind of wish to have a reason before actually going after them.

Mith I kind of trust because of the way and tone in which she goes around. But then again she's a veteran who knows what to do. Still not too high on my list of suspicion.

Lalaith I feel somehow innocent but many of her actions just cry out a wolf. One of my top suspects right now.

The Saucepan Man has been lot more reasonable toDay and made a host of good points. Well, that's what one could suppose a suspected SPaM to turn out when being a baddie. Still taken notice of our situation I'm somewhat reluctant to drive for his lynch. Must see.

Lommy has gotten her act together as well toDay and looks better but there are also things that bother me. I'll try to have time to look at her too a bit more toDay (if time allows).

Rune Son of Bjarne I'm as puzzled as I always am. Somehow I just can't get a grasp of him, never.

[Mithalwen]

I am half way through a read through of the entire thread. I find it a bit quiet here considering how late in the day it is... at the moment I have found no reason to persuade me from voting for one of my previous choices. I think it quite possible that Spm and Lalaith are faithful. But I still have a few pages to go.... Brinniel and Durelin are "inclined to suspect".

On the inclined to trust list I have TGWBS and Lommy so far .......

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have spent much time going back over everything that has happened. My thoughts on each villager (except Nogrod, obviously) are below. Note that this is not a blow-by-blow account, but only picks up on things I thought worth noting and includes my own thoughts on them (where I have any :rolleyes: ).

Since I was going through, I have summarised what Roa and Rikae said about everyone, for what it’s worth.

Brinniel
Day 1 - Opening post emphasis her “newbie” status, but says little. Subsequently gets into the nonsense exchange with Hookbill which was based on nought but banter. Votes Rikae.

Day 2 - Becoming suspicious of Hookbill, because of his continued references to poor judgment and having little clue. I find Hookbill’s behaviour in this regard strange too, and it leads me to think slightly better of Brinniel. Votes Legate.

Roa expresses mild suspicion, but neutral overall.

Rikae didn’t think her very suspicious.

Durelin
Day 1 - Opening post takes a long time to say little, other than to stir comment on some evolving issues. Jumps on Rune’s suspicions of Manwe and votes for him. Later says she is unsure about Manwe, but nevertheless sticks with her vote until after Rikae declares. And the switch to Garin is very quick upon the tails of Rikae’s revelation. Jokey style is typical for her, although she is coming across as somewhat overly cheery at times. I have never experienced her as a Wolf, but she has been a cunning Cobbler in the past.

Day 2 - Early suspicion of Manwe, based on his criticism of Roa’s analyses. Otherwise, says a lot without saying much. Seems to embrace Roa’s analyses alarmingly enthusiastically (although Roa was an unknown quantity, and this is one of Roa‘s strengths). Later, after Roa is revealed, she looks to see if there might be any leads in Roa’s analyses, which I was in favour of doing. Feels Hookbill, Lommy and Brinniel to be a bit forced. Ponders voting for Legate on the basis of Roa’s analysis of him, but votes for Roa on the basis that having a known Cobbler around can be nasssty.

Roa expresses some suspicion of her.

Rikae thought she felt innocent.

Gil-Galad
…! I have already said about as much as there is about him.

Roa more or less neutral. What else could she be?

Rikae thought him an unknown quantity. Ditto.

the guy who be short
Day 1 - Opening post gets right down to the business of airing suspicions, putting pressure on the quiet, which I rather like. Makes an early list of suspicions which, again, I quite like. Isn’t afraid to say where he stands, so I find it difficult to understand why some are saying that he seems careful. However, I have noted the “easy” Day 1 vote for Garin.

Day 2 - Following Rikae’s revelation of her dreams, recommends taking good notice of the thoughts of the two known innocents. As I have said, I find this an entirely reasonable proposition. Looks at Lalaith, Mith and Brinniel, finding only the latter suspicious (and later votes for her). While I was (and still am) all for taking account of Roa’s analyses, his “meta-analysis” approach looks far too simplistic. When challenged on it (by Mith), he concedes that the Faithful are more likely to be among those that Roa did not focus on too much. Not sure what to make of this, as I somewhat agree with the conclusion that he came to, but the original analysis rings slight alarm bells. Urges the village not to lynch Roa, which I have already commented on.

Roa expressed some suspicion.

Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, for being careful and appearing to be helpful.

Hookbill the Goomba
Day 1 - Opening post says nothing. Following posts are largely jokey and insubstantial, save for a slight dig at Manwe for possibly thinking me the Seer and revealing it. Seems to say that he has no idea and claims poor judgment a lot. Ummed and ahhed over Manwe before voting for him.

Day 2 - Still saying that he has nothing much to go on and claiming not to be very good at the game. Like some others, I am slightly wary of this, but I am inclined to give him a chance to get more involved. Did not vote, but has explained that.

Roa was (very) mildly suspicious of him.

Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, for seeming slippery and uninvolved.

Kath
Day 1 - Opening post says little, except how the numbers favour us. Next, merely a commentary, other than to say Manwe and Hookbill didn’t look suspicious, but that Legate was worryingly calm. Did not vote but, again, this has been explained.

Day 2 - Focussed mainly on the Roa/Rikae issue, thinking through various scenarios, and ended up voting for Roa.

Roa expresses mild suspicion.

Rikae seems to have thought her more likely innocent than guilty.

Kitanna
Day 1 - Opening post says little other than to defend Glirdan. Then gets on to Manwe’s case, for the bold accusation. Later withdraws from that and says little, other than raising mild suspicions, and goes for the “easy” Garin vote.

Day 2 - Spent a lot of time grappling with the Roa/Rikae issue, rather than looking at others. A lot of people were doing this - it was Roa’s intention that we did so - so I’m not setting much store by it. Did not vote, but it looks, from what she says, like she would probably have voted for Roa.

Roa expressed suspicion.

Rikae thought her suspicious for being safe and seemingly flying under the radar.

Lalaith
Day 1 - The point she raised about Mith’s opening post, with which I rather agreed, has been discussed at length. Also expressed confusion over the roles in her first post, which could have been deliberate, particularly as she is a seasoned player. Next post is her strange, and seemingly very safe vote for Holby, upon which I have already commented.

Day 2 - Proposed looking at the Garin “bandwaggon“. Fair enough since, while Garin presented himself an easy target, I suspect that at least one Faithful jumped at it. Then again, all the votes were worth looking at, not just those for Garin. Some confusion over whether Rikae was protected and whether the Faithful went for her. Otherwise, does little more than assess the Rikae/Roa situation and vote for Roa.

Roa called her “very odd” and said she thought she merited further scrutiny.

Rikae thought her sincere.

Legate of Amon Lanc
Day 1 - Opening post wordy, as are most of his posts, but that seems to be his style. Described Manwe as “harsh” and said that, while it didn’t prove him a Faithful, if he was not, he was making a mess by making accusations out of nowhere. I think that Legate was over-reacting, because accusations out of nowhere are quite standard for Day 1, but I also think he was still finding his feet (which could go either way). Took the exchange between Brinniel and Hookbill a little seriously, but I don’t find his attempt to mediate particularly suspicious. Still slightly curious as to why he voted for Manwe rather than Garin following Rikae’s revelation.

Day 2 - His first post of the Day does seem to find it difficult to see people as suspicious, which was the point that Brinniel made that I misread. His later contributions are after Rikae’s dream reveal, and he votes for Roa. For all his words, he doesn’t really seem to say much, so I’m slightly more uncomfortable about now him than I was.

I’m also slightly disconcerted by the admiration which Roa expresses for him. Not sure what it means, but I doubt that she would have so obviously embraced one she thought to be a Faithful.

Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, but ended up switching her vote from Mith to vote for him. I have no idea what to make of that. Although it seems to have been aimed at preventing Roa being lynched, it was rather late in the Day.

Mänwe
Day 1 - Early “fisherman” banter - confusing style - but I agree with much of what he says. Aggressive early attack on Nogrod and Roa particularly, and also Kitanna and me. Looks to me to be a tactic to provoke reaction.

Continues to cross swords with Roa on Day 2, though without giving much away concerning his own thoughts. Indeed, he seems rather to encourage the confusion over Roa’s continuing participation more than anything else.

Roa attacked him, although not as much as she did me, and declared him either the Cobbler or a Faithful. I think it most likely she thought him innocent.

Rikae described him as disturbing, but seeming a bit like an “innocent Morm”. :D

Mithalwen
Day 1 - That comment in her opening post has been discussed enough. Other than that, said little during Day 1 other than to express a few mild suspicions, mainly for Lalaith, engage in a bit of to’ing and fro’ing in the hullaballoo following Rikae’s declaration and then vote for her. The vote for Lalaith, when Rikae was still possibly in danger, was odd, but Rikae was unlikely to receive any more votes by then (other than from a suicidal Faithful), I suppose.

Day 2 - Spends most of her time urging that we not lynch Roa, and suggesting me as an alternative. I have already commented on that.

Roa expressed mild suspicion.

Rikae thought her to be a Faithful.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Day 1 - Opening post says that little jumps to his attention! On the contrary, I think it was possibly the most eventful opening to Day 1 ever. Kicks off the case against Manwe. Then says he is confused and adds little, other than expressing mild suspicion of Holby and saying he thought Hookbill innocent. Main suspects were Manwe, Legate and Brinniel but took the easy option offered up unwittingly by Garin.

Day 2 - Continuing suspicion of Legate and Brinniel. I’ve commented on his vote for Legate, despite feeling better about him and despite thinking Roa was most likely lying, above.

Roa expressed some suspicion, and he capitulated to her analysis. I remember thinking that odd when I read it.

Rikae wasn’t sure on him.

Thinlómien
Day 1 - Opening post immediately jumps to Lalaith’s defence, even though Lalaith was not really under much suspicion. Hmmm … Commentary on some of the events, but nothing firm (other than possibly stirring the pot against Noggie). Later concern about Rikae and Durelin being too eager to accuse Manwe. Votes Rikae.

Day 2 opening post doesn’t say much, but expresses “vague” suspicion of Durelin, Brinniel and Kitanna. Also keeping an eye on Nogrod and I. Late elaborates on her concerns over Nogrod by reference to his mistaken assumption that the Ranger had protected, and saved, someone other than Rikae. This looks strange to me, as I see nothing sinister in Nogrod’s mistake. It was a strange point to pick up on. Agrees with Brinniel about Hookbill acting strangely, says she thinks his comments about confusion seem sincere, but notes he could be using that. Long post looking at the Day 1 posts doesn’t really add much, but she takes the opportunity to defend Lalaith’s vote (hmmm … again). Attacks TGWBS’s suggestion that we take good notice of the two known innocents and bases her vote on this - I have already noted that I find this this vote suspicious.

Roa was neutral about her.

Rikae thought her to be giving of a “faithful-ish vibe” and was suspicious of her, mainly for seemingly being eager to toss suspicion around.

Further thoughts coming up …

[Mithalwen]

1) I fail to see the logic here. Glirdan was doomed to die, yes. But the village lynches' purpose is to make the wolves extinct, right? Lynching an innocent doomed to die surely does not help to achieve that. I agree with you that lynching Roa yesterday was not the best cause, but, like TGWBS, I think the lynch should have been used to try to eliminate a wolf.




Lommie dear you have gone right off my trust list.... I didn't know he was innocent until Mac posted it THIS morning. If you knew he was innocent last night it can only be because you are a faithful? However lynching an unknown who will be dead anyway keeps the numbers up - something too few of us seem to be concerned with.... and there was a chance he was a wolf/faithful

[Durelin]

Mith - Any reasons behind your inclinations, or just feelings? I'd like to know what you think about Brinniel, at least.

Lalaith - I'm sorry you're sad. That was nice and convenient, though, how you slipped in the little note that you normally tend to suspect me, so just in case you're wrong, it's nothing new, right?

My current top suspects are Rune and Lalaith. Rune I've already expressed my opinion on, and I think Brinniel brings up good points about him as well, so I feel a little better about her, but I definitely am not putting her off my list entirely. About Lalaith - She's been nice and cautious, and makes it seem like she expresses her own opinions, though her opinions are nicely placed after someone else has already expressed similar ones, as if she's helping guilt along. Perhaps she's really trying to help the village, but I feel like only a wolf really needs to be subtle when they are trying to look like they're doing that.

Question for you, Lal, out of curiosity - What do you mean by "willful confusion?" That has me...well, confused.

I'm tired after a week of school, so yes I'm probably a little belligerent...apologies...

Edit: Crossed with Sauce and Mith

[Nogrod]

BLaah.

Just running out of time (my analysis work is too slow).

So I thought of a shortcut of collating a few statistics as Lommy needs to get to the computer.

And basically I must agree with him (SPM). Before that there had been eight people posting (of 21). Of those eight one is me (innocent) and three are dead (Garin, Glirdan and Roa). That leaves four people: Mith, Lalaith, Kath and Mänwe. So we've gotten a free harvest here that has left only four candidates.

So from the initial probability the fate has helped us a bit and I decided to make some add on's

The first posters:
Mith, Lalaith, Kath, Mänwe, Saucepan

Suspicious voting D1:
Lalaith (Holby-vote + the odd retraction)
Easy vote: Sauce, tgwbs, Rune, Kitanna

Roa voters (easy voters) D2:
Early voters: Spm, Lalaith, Kath
late voters: Mänwe, Legate

In all three categories:
Lalaith
SPaM

Two appearances:
Kath
Mänwe

Somehow I'm not surprised of either of the ones found in all three places...

I might go for Lalaith, but am open to any better suggestions. As Lommy needs to PC now I just refer that others than myself have made good remarks surpassing just confusion and weirdness with her.

What do you think?

[Mithalwen]

Mith - Any reasons behind your inclinations, or just feelings? I'd like to know what you think about Brinniel, at least.



Well Brinniel seems to fit the profile fo a Flying Under the Radar-Wolf. Present, unremarkable on the surface, using novice status as a shield - not that she is alone. Hard to be specific but that kind of behavious makes me uneasy.... too uncontroversial.


As for Lalaith. She has seemed wrong since the beginning. Now normally we read each other well. This game I suspect her and she suspects me. I know I'm innocent.... :rolleyes:

[Lalaith]

Ok. I know you're innocent Nogrod so what I'm about to say clearly doesn't go for you.

But it's now my opinon that one of the things Tar-Roa-Cobbler was doing was setting up some patsies. She didn't know who the wolves were, but she set up a few, for the wolves, whoever they were, to use as they saw fit.
One of those patsies was me.
So, given that I'm high on the suspect list today, here's a message to my fellow innocents, for you to ponder when I am dead and found innocent.
If I get lynched, look at those who jumped on my case.

[The Saucepan Man]

Easy vote: Sauce, tgwbs, Rune, KitannaWhile I agree with you about the votes of TGWBS, Rune and Kitanna, please explain how on earth you conclude that my vote for Rikae was an "easy vote"?

[the guy who be short]

+ Lalaith expressed faith in Rikae.

- Mithalwen expressed some doubt about Rikae possibly not being the seer, post 232.

- Kath, post 241, also starts expressing doubts about Rikae.

- Kitanna, post 245, doubts Rikae.

- Looking back, Manwe seemed most insistent about believing Roa. As well as his very suspicious first post on it, he posts again at 227 and post 235, each time dedicating his post to the possibility of Rikae lying and coping with it.



In conclusion about those doubting Rikae, I find Manwe most suspicious of all these. His first post made it seem like doubt of Rikae was widespread, and thenceforth he has been most vocal in doubting her. I feel he is probably faithful and may switch my vote to him.

Kath switching from believing Rikae in post 213 to doubting her in 241 troubles me - as if she switched, seeing that the idea were taking root, to further propagate it.

What to make of Rune, Brinniel, Kitanna and Mith I'm not sure.


I feel that this is very important. The thread yesterday seemed to be going forward fine, with analyses and suchlike, until people started believing Roa's story. That messed up the thread and wasted a Day where we could have killed a Faithful.


Mith - I appreciate the trust, but I must say you confuse me completely. I have gone from strongly suspecting you to strongly believing in your innocence and back again. You feel innocent to me - you act as though you have the village's interests at heart.

I don't agree with your retrospective "lynch-Glirdan" idea, because, while he may have been a wolf, it would have been even better to lynch another (non-Roa) person and so kill a(nother, if Glirdan had turned out to be Faithful) potential Faithful.


Mith also makes an excellent point about Lommy. How did she know Glirdan was innocent? I almost voted Manwe, but I may reserve my switch for Lommy unless she explains what she was thinking when she posted that.

[Thinlómien]

Mith - :rolleyes: I'm silly and I don't think you'll buy any explanation I give, but I think I didn't think that through. Of course Glirdy could have been a wolf. But I just wasn't very awake while writing that. (Might be because I did not bother myself about Glirdy since I was assuming he'd be killed by modfire anyway. :rolleyes: )

EDIT: xed unless she explains what she was thinking when she posted that.I guess I was not thinking at all.

[Mithalwen]

And we have scarcely half an hour and votes seem thin on the ground..... Only Brinniel for Rune and TGWBS for Brinniel ..or have I missed any?

[Lalaith]

Lalaith - I'm sorry you're sad. That was nice and convenient, though, how you slipped in the little note that you normally tend to suspect me, so just in case you're wrong, it's nothing new, right?

No, that's not what I meant at all. I meant quite the opposite - that there are people whose playing styles I'm inclined to find suspicious. I've been trying hard to be aware of this when judging people and using it as a kind of 'positive handicap'.

[the guy who be short]

Lommy - I certainly wont buy that; it seems a very dodgy mistake to make.

But I am more worried about Manwe than Lommy, ultimately.

--BRINNIEL
++MANWE

[Lalaith]

I'm probably not doing Lommy any favours here by defending her but I buy the mistake - it's one I also made when I was reading through the thread, I forgot that we didn't know Glirdan was an innocent.

[Mithalwen]

Mith - :rolleyes: I'm silly and I don't think you'll buy any explanation I give, but I think I didn't think that through. Of course Glirdy could have been a wolf. But I just wasn't very awake while writing that. (Might be because I did not bother myself about Glirdy since I was assuming he'd be killed by modfire anyway. :rolleyes: )

EDIT: xed I guess I was not thinking at all.

Actually I am inclined ot give you the benefit ofthe doubt because you seemed reasonable the rest of the time.....

TGWBS as for lynch Glirdan ..I am not saying it was ideal option but ideal option in the circumstances. Due to Roa's monopolising of the debate time, there was not a great deal of consensus on other suspects. I stand by my suspicion of Lalaith and SpM but my opinions were far from universal. I just felt I would have had better chance of preserving Roa as a "bum on seat" non-faithful for the purposes of winning, if I suggested lynching someone who was cactus anyway. Surely that makes sense?

[Kath]

I'm having trouble pegging anyone in this village toDay. Usually by now there's someone I'm convinced is a wolf. Ah well, let's try the old method of a quick look at each person and see what's actually going on in my head.

Brinniel - Another newbie, which causes me difficulties. She is playing on her newbie status as much as Hookbill and Legate, but she has made (I think) fewer posts and she is rather inconsistent. Day 1 she started off looking at Manwe and made a sudden switch to Rikae, and she's been backwards and forwards over Hookbill from the beginning. She actually looks quite suspicious, and if she is a wolf I wonder whether Hookbill is one too. After all she mentions him daily but always seems to find someone slightly more suspicious to vote for.

Durelin - She seems to be playing differently to usual. More talk, more actual involvement in the game. This seems suspicious to me simply because as a wolf people are often more inclined to post, to keep up with what's going on so they can influence it. Her suspicion of Mith also makes me suspicious of her as I mentioned earlier.

Gil - I would say innocent. That comment about the wolves having killed Glirdan when it was clearly stated in the narration that he'd 'committed suicide', I can't believe a wolvish Gil would say it.

TGWBS - I'm barely going to comment. Right now I find him unbelievably suspicious but I strongly suspect that that is due to a large difference in playing style and old history. So I'm going to ignore him until I can look at him with fresh eyes.

Hookbill - There is a definite newbie quality to his posts. The one where he was surprised that people seemed to be randomly suspecting him certainly supports that. He does repeat that he is a bad judge of character an awful lot of times, but his frivolity and his consistency over being suspicious of Manwe speaks in his favour to me. He has also recently stopped mentioning his bad character judgement and started making some informed points about people. I am inclined to think him innocent.

Kitanna - I don't feel to have seen enough from her to really form an opinion (hey! now I know how you guys feel about me :rolleyes: ), but her preoccupation with things being 'logical' speaks to me of innocence. The only thing that's throwing me slightly is that she had such a good reason for her vote on Day 1. Garin did make himself look extremely suspicious on Day 1, and it would be an easy thing for a wolf to pick up on and use to their advantage. For now though I think she's innocent.

Lalaith - Has posted far more than I thought she had. One thing that is good about her to me was her realisation on Day 1 that she was wrong to ask Rikae to reveal who she'd dreamt of. But then she is the first (I think) to suggest that it's odd that the wolves would have tried to kill Rikae knowing the Ranger could be protecting her, although she does change her mind on this later, deciding that in fact it is the most likely scenario. I really can't work out what I feel about her.

Legate - I didn't like his mediating on Day 1, and he has subsequently stopped that, but if you read his posts he also constantly mentions the fact that he's new at this and is learning the ropes. This was picked up in Hookbill but not so much for Legate, and I wonder at the inconsistency. However, I think there was genuine unsureness from him about the exact role of the Cobbler. Now, that doesn't mean he isn't a wolf but there's just something about his posts that catches me as being ... wrong somehow. I can't explain this one, but I do find him suspicious.

Manwe - Odd. Day 1 he was very vocal, but has sinced calmed down a lot. I wonder whether this was excitement over being a wolf, and then during the Night his fellows told him to tone it down a bit. And there's this:

Well here I am three, being rather new to the entire experience, my life on this here Island had always been a quiet one
Emphasis mine, but what's with the three? I thought maybe a typo for 'there' but that doesn't make any sense either. Three fellows? Definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Mith - As I said earlier I think she's innocent. Her immediate belief in Rikae and subsequent support of her is to her credit. There was some comment over her wanting to have lynched Glirdan yesterDay, but it does actually make sense. I think she underestimated the effect Roa could have had on the village were she left alive, but I don't think she had any wolvish intent in trying to stop her being lynched.

Nogrod - We know is innocent.

Rune - I am becoming more suspicious of the more of his posts I read through. Day 1 he said he would not play safe, because he didn't think a risk factor should be a deciding variable, but he then proceeds to vote Garin, which at the time was a pretty safe bet. If he had gone with Legate as indeed he said he probably would that would almost have been a less safe bet and more attention would have been drawn to him because of it. He also then said leaving Roa alive for another Day would be the safest bet, something I strongly disagree with, and he didn't seem to have any reason for it either. Then he lessens the suspicion he had on Legate before proceeding to vote for him. Finally his growing suspicion of Lommy is odd. There seems to be very little reasoning behind it bar some kind of reaction to the fact that she suspected him. Basically, I think he's very suspicious.

Sauce - Constant arguing and long posts is the norm for him, as is keeping an eye on the votes. To me he feels to be behaving normally, though of course he behaves 'normally' as a wolf as well. At the moment I think he's innocent, and that he and Nogrod simply have very opposite viewpoints.

Lommy - (you wouldn't believe how long it just took me to find your posts, I was searching the members list for Lommy for a good 5 minutes before I realised what I was doing :rolleyes: ). Anyway, well, I asked for flood-posting and I certainly got it! To me Lommy has been making sense. There are some things I disagree with her over (Mith's Glirdan theory not making sense for one) but for the most part I think she's posting clearly and sensibly. For now I'm going to consider her innocent. I've just noticed Mith saying what Lommy said about Glirdan looks suspicious ... I think she's talking in retrospect Mith.

So, finally, this is what I've come up with:

Suspicious (not in order):
Brinniel
Durelin
Legate
Manwe
Rune

Innocent:
Gil
Hookbill
Kitanna
Mith
Nogrod
Sauce
Lommy

No idea yet:
Lalaith
TGWBS

Of those I am suspicious of the one that I most strongly suspect is Rune, and as it is now only half an hour from the deadline I will vote.

++RUNE

[Thinlómien]

There's so many people I could vote and I can't decide... Mänwe, Rune and Brinniel have been already voted. Of those I could vote either Rune or Brinn... But I could vote TGWBS or Kitanna or Durelin as well... :rolleyes:

[Kath]

Ew that got horrifically long, my apologies.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, my review of the two Days' discussion hasn't changed my thoughts that much. However, I do feel slightly easier about Brinniel and slightly more concerned about Hookbill and Legate. So, new list:

Suspicious
Lalaith
Durelin
Rune
Lommy

Somewhat suspicious
Brinniel
TGWBS
Kitanna
Hookbill
Legate

No idea
Kath
Gil-Galad

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe

Innocent
Nogrod

Unless something radical happens in the next 30 mins or so, I will be voting for one of those on my "top 4". My inclination was to vote for Rune, largely because his voting looks suspicious and there were a number of things that concerned me about him when I went through the thread.

However, I am now wondering over the point that Mith raised about Lommy. It's just the sort of slip a Wolf/Faithful might make. And I was already regarding her as decidedly suspicious.

[Mithalwen]

And to explain my uncertainty of Rikae - all acan say is " a bon chat, bon rat", Rikae and Roa are possibly the boldest players I have encountered. You have to consider the options..... and given the events of Noggie's game.... :cool:

[The Saucepan Man]

I just felt I would have had better chance of preserving Roa as a "bum on seat" non-faithful for the purposes of winning, if I suggested lynching someone who was cactus anyway. Surely that makes sense?No, but the cactus reference is very funny. :D

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I find it interesting how Durelin is highlighting Brinniel's rather plain arguments against me. Arguments where only 1 seems to have true merit, that being that stating that I am confused could be a wolwen tactics. But, Durelin should know that it is not uncommon for me to state these things at all.

I am still inclined to think her innocent, but it is a known wolven tactic to put focus on the arugments of another person. . .

If this post seems a bit oddly constructed it is because I accendentaly deleted it and this is a reconstruction.

I really have to go now. . .

I'll vote for Brinniel, she has been quiet, but it is actually the content of her posts that put me off, she seems to react on pretty innocent things, her cases that are not based on gutt and so on seems fabricated or at the least weird. I never liked her "fun" reaction to hookbill and I really thought her case against me was odd.

You see we Danes only capitulate to analysis and troops when we realise that we cannot win the fight, it could be because of rethorical skill(and or them being right)/superior military but when these things are not pressent we tend to stand on our own feet. ;)

++Brinniel

[Mithalwen]

. I've just noticed Mith saying what Lommy said about Glirdan looks suspicious ... I think she's talking in retrospect Mith.



But we couldn't vote in retrospect ..however I am inclined to believe it was just a slip .....

[Nogrod]

Please anyone if you have time, make a vote count!

We're too hectic here sharing one computer with Lommy... :eek:

[The Saucepan Man]

++THINLOMIEN

I'm not buying it. And she looked very suspicious to me even before that.

[the guy who be short]

Now that I've voted, I'll post (briefly) what I think about every villager (ex. Nogrod and myself, for obvious reasons).

Brinniel
The scarceness of her posts, and the lack of content, worries me. We shouldn't let her fly under the radar.

Durelin
No idea.

Gil-Galad
Can't really know. Don't want to let him fly under the radar.

Hookbill the Goomba
No idea.

Kath
Slightly suspicious for her switch on Roa.

Kitanna
No idea.

Lalaith
No idea.

Legate of Amon Lanc
No idea.

Mänwe
Faithful.

Mithalwen
Feels innocent.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Slightly suspicious for being willing to believe Roa.

The Saucepan Man
Feels innocent.

Thinlómien
Slightly suspicious. Don't like her bit about glirdan, but the rest seems innocent (though not reasonable, which can be two entirely different things!).


What I notice here is the huge amount of no-ideas. Durelin, Hookbill, Kitanna, Lalaith, Legate. That's far too many people I haven't paid enough attention to.

[Mithalwen]

++Lalaith

Don't want to leave it too late...

[The Saucepan Man]

Brinniel: ++Rune (Rune 1)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (Rune 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna: ++Hookbill (Rune 1, Brinniel 1, Hookbill 1)
TGWBS: --Brinniel, ++Manwe (Rune 1, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Kath: ++Rune (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Rune: ++Brinniel (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1)
SpM: ++Lommy (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)

[Durelin]

Lalaith There's just one problem with your induction, Lalaith - Roa expressed suspicion of just about everyone. And I don't think anyone who's gone after you is using Roa's arguments against you. Besides, you're just as high on the suspect list as a number of people at this point (who have votes to back that suspicion up, too), so don't sweat it so much. :p

Manwe hasn't posted at all toDay...Hookbill and Gil have posted once. I hope forgetting about them for now isn't something we're going to really really regret...

I really don't understand the major concern over Lommy's mistake, either...

++Rune

He was my original suspect for toDay, and I swear I've seen this kind of Rune before.

Now Kath is unhappy with my helpfulness. I stand by my original declaration.

[Kath]

Slightly suspicious for her switch on Roa.
Hang on ... what switch on Roa?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

this is so typical. . .if you go un-noticed for a few days and someone realises this then everybody jumps on you and agree that you are a wolf. I remember when that happened to Eomer not long ago, I felt kind of guilty because it was me that mentioned that he had been ignored.

anyways you are being very silly!

[Nogrod]

I had this weird theory of Kath and Lommy protecting Mänwe yesterDay. I think it might be true, but then again it's putting all the eggs in the same basket and thence a bit too risky as everyone's guilt kind of hangs on the others being guilty as well...

I also suspect that either tgwbs is a wolf or then our logics just don't meet... And see the involvement! When you have reason, you tend to be able to force some time to play unlike when you have no heightened interest.

Also Durelin's slightly changed playing style worries me a bit.

I'm very bad with Rune, I almost always suspect him and mainly he turns out innocent.

Hope that is of any help. Turn for Lommy...

[Lalaith]

I don't think Rune is a wolf. None of my front-running suspects look like lynch prospects. So the way the voting is going, I will go for either Brinniel or Manwe, who are the most suspicious to me of the current prospects.

[Thinlómien]

Rune indeed seems a last minute lynch and they usually go wrong...

[the guy who be short]

Kath - from my post 369:
Kath switching from believing Rikae in post 213 to doubting her in 241 troubles me - as if she switched, seeing that the idea were taking root, to further propagate it.At first you didn't seriously consider that Roa could be telling the truth. Then you did.

Mith - I still don't get the Glirdan thing, but I suppose it's just difference of opinion. In any case, it's retrospective and doesn't matter.

[Durelin]

Also Durelin's slightly changed playing style worries me a bit.

In all seriousness...how has it changed? I think you guys just missed all my crazy trying-to-helpness in those two games in a row I was the bloody Seer. Actually I'm kind of glad I'm getting noticed finally.

Okay, that may be a waste of time question to answer, particularly when there are only about 9 minutes left, but I want it answered some time...even after the game is over, if need be. :p

Edit: Cross-posted with last three posts

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Main Suspects:
Brinniel
Legate
Durelin (I moved her up after Nogrod mentioned the change of style)

Lesser Suspects:
Lommy
SPM

But remember I am awful at spotting wolves. . .however I have chosen from a bit different critiria this time.

[Mithalwen]

I don't see why Rune is so suspicious.... Brinniel and Durelin seem more so.... may have to change my vote since noone agrees with me... :S rather help someone I suspect a bit lynched than let someone I don't suspect at all face the chop...

[Kath]

At first you didn't seriously consider that Roa could be telling the truth. Then you did.
I considered it was possible for as long as I wasn't sure whether the Seer could know the Cobbler's role from a dream. As soon as Mac posted that this was in fact the case I believed Rikae to be the Seer and Roa the Cobbler.

[Lalaith]

Ok, time to vote.
++BRINNIEL

I don't much like the choices we've got but like I said before, it's a toss-up for me between her and Manwe, and I don't think Rune's guilty.

[the guy who be short]

I also suspect that either tgwbs is a wolf or then our logics just don't meet... And see the involvement! When you have reason, you tend to be able to force some time to play unlike when you have no heightened interest.Your logic also didn't agree with Rikae. And I'm involved because I want to analyse and come to conclusions, and because I don't trust the conclusions of anybody other than me (and you, but our idea of logic diverges, as you said).

I also think we have too many potential lynch targets. Six people is too much in a village of 15, 4 wolves.

[Thinlómien]

++Brinniel

because she of my suspects can be lynched.

[Mithalwen]

7 votes of a possible 15? 5 minutes ot go ..this is rubbish..again

[Durelin]

About the Rune situation:

1. He is not a last minute lynch. Brinniel voted for him a while ago, and I've suspected him for quite a while as well.

2. He's only got three votes, so actually I suppose not that many people really suspect him.

Does that change my vote? No.

Edit: Cross posted with four or five posts at least, not surprisingly...

[The Saucepan Man]

Brinniel: ++Rune (Rune 1)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (Rune 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna: ++Hookbill (Rune 1, Brinniel 1, Hookbill 1)
TGWBS: --Brinniel, ++Manwe (Rune 1, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Kath: ++Rune (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Rune: ++Brinniel (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1)
SpM: ++Lommy (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Durelin: ++Rune (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 2, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)

Yet to vote: Gil-Galad, Hookbill, Legate, Manwe, Nogrod, Lommy

... I think.

[Nogrod]

I still feel the tone of Brinniel to be that of an innocent.

That's only a feeling, though...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I dare now to present my hardly-summarized list, but please, bear in mind that "advice is a dangerous gift...", so do not focus on it too much. Also, I made it "on walk", so some thoughts might be strange there.

Brinniel - She seems to me of a quite possibility of being a Faithful, trying to catch something and awake an accusation. I am inclined very much to believe her a Faithful, even the first point to that Hookbill discussion could still have been something.
Durelin - The suspicious on her is that she voted for Mänwe quite early. I do not place much on the arguments about her "Yaying", more people did this (Lommy, for example). Actually, these two seem to be quite alike to me, just Durelin looks little more "Chaaarge!", so I'd call her something between Lommy and Mänwe. But I cannot make any further conclusions right now.
Gil-Galad - In general, his behavior is like: "Comes, says nothing, leaves. Comes, says nothing, votes, leaves." From this, I would deduce three possibilities for him, each as much probable as the other: 1) a totally-out villager, 2) a totally-out Faithful, 3) a very clever Faithful, sitting in the shadows and waiting.
the guy who be short - Whatever he might seem, he brought forth some good thoughts. I don't agree with his&Lalaith's „shortlist“ concept, but otherwise he seems ok to me. Maybe a little bit... you know, narrow-viewed. But someone already pointed here that it is stupid to judge people just based on their different approach to solving problems.
Hookbill the Goomba - even though there are some suspecting him, I take his post about being scared of the game as honest. If it shows he is bluffing, I'm gonna hate him :mad:
Kath and Kitanna, at first, I was mistaking one for the another (as well as Mithalwen with Lalaith). Now Kitanna seemed odd to vote for Hookbill "out of thin air". Says he "flies under the radar“, while she is doing that herself. Also, looking back she seemed strange to vote Garin.
Kath is undecipherable for me this far, she seems just using too much strange-system of reasoning to me.
Lalaith - much as above, I don't catch much on her, but do not actually take what complains were against her now from some people.
Mänwe - well, seems he has calmed from Day 1. Possibly he: a) is a villager and he heeded the advice/is a Faithful and realized that it brings too much suspection to act like he did. The fact that he voted for Nogrod on Day 1 might be a move from him to accuse someone innocent (who, as we learned, was really innocent).
Mithalwen - seems strange last day, but I must reconsider everything yet.
Rune Son of Bjarne - I don't see any other serious effort from him but against me, Mänwe and Brinniel; and I believe a Faithful would try more.
The Saucepan Man - posting too much for me. All the accusations against him, although being many, are all based (as well as his entire profile in this game, I think) on the people's knowledge of him from the previous games, which, of course, I do not. Need some trace to identify him further.
Thinlómien - I didn't think she could be a Faithful at first, though, last she is behaving somehow different, more suspicious to me, I'd say perhaps "sneaky", in the last time.

Nothing too much to come upon now. And not much time, so

++Brinniel

EDIT: Cross-posted with everyone since... wait... since somewhere in the first part of page 10?!??!!

[Mithalwen]

-- Lalaith

++ Brinniel

[Kath]

Rune isn't last minute to me. I've been writing that analysis for close to two hours. :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

Brinniel: ++Rune (Rune 1)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (Rune 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna: ++Hookbill (Rune 1, Brinniel 1, Hookbill 1)
TGWBS: --Brinniel, ++Manwe (Rune 1, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Kath: ++Rune (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Rune: ++Brinniel (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1)
SpM: ++Lommy (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Durelin: ++Rune (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 2, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lommy: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 3, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)

Yet to vote: Gil-Galad, Hookbill, Lalaith, Legate, Manwe, Nogrod

Although this will probably cross-post with a vote ro two too.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I managed to grab a computer for five minutes so I must be brief...

Given little time to consider my position I can only be hazy at best, but I have had a hunch since early on in the game that Manwe was untrustworthy. His lack of posting today may well be down to troubles, Lord knows I've had them, but I cannot say I really suspect anyone else to any great degree. Rune has had some odd things to say and the Saucepan Man has raised an eyebrow or two but nothing to suggest wolfhood.
So, with nothing better to do or say, I am going to have to cast my vote thus,

++ Manwe

Okay, I have to go...

[Mithalwen]

simultaeneous vote ... with legate

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, I see Rune as far more suspicious than Brinniel ...

--THINLOMIEN
++RUNE

[Nogrod]

I don't kind of like this but let's hope you're right...

++ Mänwe

I eat my words - checking on Lommy & Kath as well...

[Durelin]

Are we ever going to cease making this difficult for our poor Modalaure? :p

[Nogrod]

Okay try this tyhen

-- Mänwe

++ Rune

[Macalaure]

DEADLINE

Brinniel has been lynched

She is an ordinary innocent.


Are we ever going to cease making this difficult for our poor Modalaure? :p :D

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Silly Sods

[Mithalwen]

It is what happens when you opt for retractable votes as I know only too well *laments Noggin's unused death scene* :p

[Mithalwen]

Silly Sods


ooh that got past the censor!

[Macalaure]

Once more a gruesome morning had been followed by heated discussions all over the day. Many names have been associated with faithfulness and murder, and the whole island seemed to be at odds with itself. After a long time, it looked as if Rune, Son of Bjarne, would be the one to bite the blood-soaked dust of the Holy Mountain this time.

“I don’t see how you can assume me to be a Faithful!” Rune proclaimed loudly “I am innocent. I curse the name of Eru! No Faithful would ever do that.”

This was, of course, a good evidence and the Númenoreans agreed.

“But then we need somebody else now.” explained the guy who be short.

“Brinniel is someone else!” Rune threw in quickly and pointed on her. Immediately the people started rhythmically shouting her name.

“What?” shrieked Brinniel, shocked to the bone “But you can't lynch me! I curse the name of Eru, too!”

“Yeah, right. I think I’ve heard that one before. Lynch her, I say!” answered Lalaith.

Too quick for Brinniel to fight back, Thinlómien and the Legate of Amon Lanc took her by the arms and pushed her to the ground. Ignoring her pleads, Mithalwen took an axe and without hesitation and without the grant of a last wish, she swung it down on her, and Brinniel’s head was seperated from her body.

“Rejoice, o Melkor” chanted Mithalwen “One of thy enemies has been dispatchéd!”, but her joy was untimely.

“Wait! See what lies there!” cried Nogrod.

It looked liek something else but her head has been cut off her neck. A small thing lay inside the puddle of blood. A little pendant it was.

And the pendant beared an image of the Lidless Eye. Brinniel was innocent.


Yes, there are fools even in Númenor.


*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two
Roa_Aoife (Tar-Míriel / cobbler) - stabbed to death on Day Two
Rikae (High Priest of Annatar / seer) - killed and reformed into a ship by Faithfuls in Night Three
Glirdan (ordo) - another one who committed suicide to revive Garin
Brinniel (ordo) - executed on Day Three


The Living:

Durelin
Gil-Galad
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Macalaure]

Dark were the dreams in Númenor that night, and filled with sorrow and doubt. Despite their grand efforts, they had been unable to get hold of even one of the frightful Faithfuls. Visions of death and horror crept into the minds of the sleeping and they knew that, for one of them, it would become more than just a dream. Once more the Faithfuls roamed the paths of the island and gathered around one of the huts. One of them knocked at the door.

Inside, Rune, Son of Bjarne, awoke from his direful dreams to find himself in horrors much worse.

“Go away!” he shouted in fear “There are others still in other huts. Go for them first!”

“But it is none of the others that we want, at least not now. We want you!”

And with these words the door was broken and the Faithfuls entered his room.

“Then so be it. But please make it quick, at least!” Rune said in despair and he sighed, knowing that his time had come, but the Faithfuls merely laughed in quiet.

“Do you know the song which was once sung by the people of this land?” one asked him.

“What are you talking about? I told you to make it quick!” answered Rune, baffled.

“Let me sing to you first:
The father made the World for Elves and Mortals, and he gave it...”

“Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know it. I think I’ve heard that one not so long ago. Please spare me with it!”

“Would you please cease to interrupt me? I’ll make myself short:
But my heart resteth not here for ever, for here is ending, and there will be an end and the Fading, when all is counted, and all numbered at last, but yet it will not be enough, not enough.”

“So what is that supposed to mean?” asked Rune while growing impatient.

“Oh, you will not know. But those who are going to find you, they will.”

And when these words were said, one Faithful unsheathed his sword and pierced Rune’s heart with it in one fast strike.


*~*


A bright morning it was in Westernesse and the sun seemed to grace the survivors in joy. Hope sprouted anew and hearts were lifted... until the Númenoreans became aware that once again one of them was missing. With evil forebodings they went to the hut of Rune. The door was broken and a chamber of horrors waited for them inside.

There lay the dead body of Rune, Son of Bjarne – all over the room. In an amazing exhibition of pedantry, his body had been dismembered. His bones and teeth lay aligned at the foot of the bed, all muscles and veins neatly around it. His blood and other humours had been bottled and the intestines adorned the walls. On the bed, lain upon the spread skin, was his brain, eyes and stabbed heart.

Nobody spoke a word and it took a while for one of them to notice the writing upon the broken door:

~Where every fibre’s torn apart, and every bone and blood-drop counted~


*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two
Roa_Aoife (Tar-Míriel / cobbler) - stabbed to death on Day Two
Rikae (High Priest of Annatar / seer) - killed and reformed into a ship by Faithfuls in Night Three
Glirdan (ordo) - another one who committed suicide to revive Garin
Brinniel (ordo) - executed on Day Three
Rune Son of Bjarne (ordo) - disassembled by the Faithfuls in Night Four


The Living:

Durelin
Gil-Galad
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Mänwe]

I would just like to point out to tgwbs in regards to the following;

Looking back, Manwe seemed most insistent about believing Roa. As well as his very suspicious first post on it, he posts again at 227 and post 235, each time dedicating his post to the possibility of Rikae lying and coping with it.

Seeing as no-one else spotted the mistake yesterday. Those two posts you point out were me in fact me advocating strongly for the death of Roa. I was trying to get across to you that your reservations for voting Roa were incorrect, that killing Roa was the best option. Others have also stated that this was the best option.

I pointed out that there was a slight possibility that Rikae was lying. But to prove beyond all doubt whether she was or not then to do this you would have to kill Roa. You are grossly mistaken with what you say.

You seem intent on having me lynched.

I am curious as to why Hookbill has voted for me all the time, he has either voted for me of voiced his reservations about me. Is he jealous of my simple life as fisherman? Perhaps the voices he keeps hearing are getting to him..I can imagine the Faithful's continue to whisper in his ear, keep voting Manwe and others will eventually too. Though by the sounds of it this would be too unsubtle for the Faithful's.

Much like my style.

Which seems to be the focus of a number of villagers, that and my "newbie" brand that must be across my forehead the number of times its been bought up.

So I would like to ask you Hookbill, what are your reasons for voting me every time?

And I would also like to address the point that Lommy and Kath had defended me...oh by the way, Kath and Lommy, can you please stop sending me PM's about keeping calm.

And as for the point raised about me saying "Well I am here three..." it was most certainly not a typo, 100% intentional. I was meaning I was the third person to have posted. Lalaith had said, "I'm here too" I thought i'd be, well immature and say "three" as if Lal had said "I'm here two", crude I know....

Mhm, tgwbs, Hookbill, Lommy and Mith are my Faithful's.

Hookbill, because I don't like the fact his computer is down. That he would it seems has not taken the time to read the rest of the thread and keeps voting for me for the same spurious reason. That and he always needs to leave hurridly and may not have the time to come back.

tgwbs, Lommy and Mith because I think attention needs to be bought to these three more. You all say these three are suspicious but don't go so far as follow through with conviction and vote them. Well Lommy and tgwbs have been but votes have been retracted or 'reasoning' stated and therefore a vote not placed.

Edited with Mac; oh dear.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

To tell you the truth, Manwe, it was because I had little to go on, really. It was either you or the Saucepan Man last time and I just had an inkling more towards yourself than the Pan man. Call me crazy but... well... you'd be right.


Hookbill, because I don't like the fact his computer is down.

I don't like that fact either. :p
But I have my new computer now, so everything is goods. *Dances*

I must come clean, though, on the first day I was just a tad lazy to really read through the post properly and assumed that things would iron out eventually. Losing my computer privileges for a few days got me reading them a bit more closely because I had to even though my time was scarce.

Brinniel's lynching really confused me. I read the arguments for her lynching and couldn't fathom it. I should take a look at those who voted Brinniel and look for suspicious... things...

[the guy who be short]

Seeing as no-one else spotted the mistake yesterday. Those two posts [227, 235] you point out were me in fact me advocating strongly for the death of Roa. I was trying to get across to you that your reservations for voting Roa were incorrect, that killing Roa was the best option. Others have also stated that this was the best option.You're mixing up the two issues. Though I regard voting for Roa as a Faithful thing to do, others find it sensible. This issue divides innocents, as Nogrod and Rikae showed.

You, however, thought it was sensible to kill Roa not because you wanted to be rid of the cobbler, but because you entertained the notion that she might not be the cobbler. This doubt of Rikae looks very faithful to me, especially the way you tried to make it look widespread in post 203 when it wasn't:
I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.
Post 227 and 235 are devoted to doubting Rikae's claim to be the Seer:
People, what Rikae says is why I wrote my second 'plus' for killing Roa, if we kill Roa and she is innocent we know that Rikae is lying without doubt. Rikae telling us Roa is the Cobbler is a perfect chance to sort the mess out of, is she (Roa) a Cobbler, and is she (Rikae) the Seer. Killing Roa and finding out what she is would prove without doubt whether Rikae is the Seer or not. It's a win win situation in a way, for if Rikae is not a Seer than we can kill her, with a certain knowledge she is either the actual Cobbler or Faithful thats if she does not die tonight.
Please do not try to confuse the two issues of voting for Roa, and believing Roa's claim that Rikae was not the Seer. The two are very different, and your willingness to muddle them to make my accusations look unsound only further cement my belief in your guilt.

I also note the knee-jerk reaction.

You seem intent on having me lynched.All too true.




On a non-Manwe note, the Faithfuls' killing of Rune has confused me. Why kill the person who gained the second-most votes, who could most likely be lynched today?

One theory is that there are a few wolves among the Brinniel voters who feared suspicion and so killed Rune, thereby showing that most of the rest of the village had also voted for an innocent yesterday. This would incriminate Lalaith, Legate, Lommy and Mith. But the more I think about it, the less this kill makes sense.

[Nogrod]

Oh Rune, you silly, silly sod! :(
(Sorry about my vote. I tried to save Brinniel who looked clearly innocent whilst of you I had no clear opinion... sadly I learned it only after your misguided comment that cost you your life.)

I feared this after your last post and that was the way it went. You declared yourself innocent at the last moment yesterDay with it and those dratted Faithfuls were witty enough to read it...

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

I agree with you Hookbill in here. The lynching of Brinniel was folly. I tried to say that we leave the newbies in the first place and secondly tried to say that Brinniel looks too innocent to be lynched. I was late, I know, but darn this sharing of the computer when one has not time to actually delve in and live the last moments with full effort...

But we have a new Day and only a Cobbler has been catched and even that cost us our Seer's life. Let's now pull ourselves together!

It's 9/4 now.

We make a misjudgement toDay and it will be evidently 7/4 tomorrow (as I'm dead then). Another mistake makes it 5/4 the next Day... and thence a mistake by one of us nails it.

And even if this looks like we have a couple of Days to play the reality is a bit gloomier. With their votes the Faithfuls can steer the lynchings towards their ways as they know where to steer them unlike us. Even toDay only half of us innocents differing in our opinions will give the Faithfuls a free reign over the lynching of yet another innocent if they so wish. And why not in this phase of the game?

So we need to be very sharp now.

So Brinniel voters should be seen first. If there are people who seem to have not suspected her so much before and just voted for her late yesterDay. I would say that would shout a Faithful (jumping on a popular wagon with an innocent). The same goes with Rune-voters in a bit lesser degree.

Time to give the computer to Lommy (1.10 AM here), but I'll be back...

[Nogrod]

On a non-Manwe note, the Faithfuls' killing of Rune has confused me. Why kill the person who gained the second-most votes, who could most likely be lynched today?

One theory is that there are a few wolves among the Brinniel voters who feared suspicion and so killed Rune, thereby showing that most of the rest of the village had also voted for an innocent yesterday. This would incriminate Lalaith, Legate, Lommy and Mith. But the more I think about it, the less this kill makes sense.I'm still a bit at loss with your logic tgwbs. It's just hard to say whether we think this differently (and naturally thinking the other one does it really bad) or are you a Faithful who deliberately tries to make others think weirdly... :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?Nogrod, could you elaborate? I did not catch you rpoint, I'm afrais. Why does "this" make you scan SPM again? And why do you wonder why Rune was killed instead of him? Because Sauce is a great benefit for the village when innocent?

And TGWBS, I think you manage to point out how weird/contradictory Mänwe is, but if I had to judge his behaviour (like one usually must while playing ww) I think he looks more like a confused innocent than like a faithful.

[the guy who be short]

What I notice here is the huge amount of no-ideas. Durelin, Hookbill, Kitanna, Lalaith, Legate. That's far too many people I haven't paid enough attention to.Let's form some opinions.

There are now too many posts for me to consider going over everything each of these people has said. I shall try to lessen my load somewhat by starting from Day 2. Day 1 is always a stab in the dark anyway.

Durelin

Post 141 - yay-ranger post.

Post 150 - nothing

Post 156 - mildly suspicious of Hookbill, based on Roa's reasoning (pre-knowing she was a cobbler).

Post 216 - Yay Rikae post. Believes firmly in Rikae, which is a good sign I feel. Mild suspicion of Hookbill, Brinniel and Lommy.

Post 228 - Says Roa still has a vote, so she can still do harm. Again, firmly believes in Rikae.

Post 262 - Says not voting for Roa means we might lynch somebody else randomly. Defends Legate for the second time. Accuses Brinniel and Kath.

Post 268 - Votes Roa.

Post 278 - Nothing.

Post 282 - Nothing much.

Post 308 - Accuses mith.

Post 314 - Dear me. A long analysis of everybody. Let's see:
Neutral about Brinniel.
Neutral about Gil.
Thinks I'm innocent.
Neutral about Hookbill.
Suspects Kath.
Defends Kitanna.
Neutral about Lalaith.
Neutral about Legate.
Neutral/ slightly suspicious of Manwe.
Suspects Mith.
Neutral about SpM.
Suspects Lommy.
Suspects Rune.

Post 316 - Nothing.

Post 331 - Defends herself against Lommy's accusations.

Post 364 - Suspects Rune and Lalaith.

Post 389 - votes for Rune. Mild suspicion of Hookbill, Gil. Slight defense of Lommy over her Glirdan slip.

Post 396 - Wants to know how her playing style has changed, according to people.

Post 404 - Defends her vote for Rune.

Post 415 - Nothing.



Well... that took FAR longer than I expected. I don't think I can manage even this undetailed analysis for all five. Nogrod, will you have time to do a few? Hookbill and Kitanna in particular have seemed to escape widespread attention.

It's hard to come to a conclusion on durelin. I don't know her playing style, so I don't see how it's changed. I find nothing to jump on, nothing that seems to shout Faithful. She does, however, seem to post quite often to say nothing much.

I don't really agree with a lot of her reasoning - her attacking Rune, wanting to lynch Roa, etc. But these aren't indicators of Faithfulness, but a difference of style, technique and belief.

I still find her quite neutral. That was a worthwhile analysis. :rolleyes:

[the guy who be short]

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?Thus far I have believed SpM to be innocent, but his continued life makes me doubt him a little.

The problem is that this always happens when SpM lives late into a game. People think that he must be a wolf, because otherwise the wolves would see him as a threat and kill him off.
However, the wolves know people will think this, so they may leave him alive in order to let him garner votes.
Or perhaps they leave him because they know that he is influential, but his suspicions are all wrong and so misleading the village.

I think it's impossible to decide.


I'm still a bit at loss with your logic tgwbs. It's just hard to say whether we think this differently (and naturally thinking the other one does it really bad) or are you a Faithful who deliberately tries to make others think weirdly...I do have a very unique brand of logic, being a mathematician. :D However, that idea was just me trying to attach meaning to Rune's murder. I can't figure out why they chose him, and this annoys me a lot because this is the first person the Faithful have killed out of choice.

And TGWBS, I think you manage to point out how weird/contradictory Mänwe is...I have neither said that he has been weird nor that he has been contradictory. I've said I don't like the way he tried to spread the unease and doubt around Rikae.

Goodnight.

[The Saucepan Man]

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

Thus far I have believed SpM to be innocent, but his continued life makes me doubt him a little.Ah, here we go. The point that plagues me every game where I last more than a few Days ... :rolleyes:

I don't know why I haven't been killed. Then again, I don't know why Mithalwen hasn't been killed. Or Lalaith. Or many others still here. I suspect, however, that being one of the chief suspects of the only known innocent and nearly being lynched in place of the Cobbler two Days ago might have something to do with it ...

As for the reason behind Rune's death, I think that Nogrod has probably put his finger on it. His final two words most likely sealed his fate, suggesting as they did his innocence. Although it will be worth looking at those he suspected and those who voted for him to see whether there may have been other motives.

I am afraid, however, that it is getting late here. Still early-ish, by my normal standards, I suppose, but I am tired. I leave you with the Day 3 voting record and will take a closer look at it when I return tomorrow.

Brinniel: ++Rune (Rune 1)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (Rune 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna: ++Hookbill (Rune 1, Brinniel 1, Hookbill 1)
TGWBS: --Brinniel, ++Manwe (Rune 1, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Kath: ++Rune (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Rune: ++Brinniel (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1)
SpM: ++Lommy (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Durelin: ++Rune (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 2, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lommy: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 3, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Legate: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 4, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Mithalwen: --Lalaith, ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 5, Lommy 1)
Hookbill: ++Manwe (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 2, Brinniel 5, Lommy 1)
SpM: --Lommy, ++Rune (Rune 4, Hookbill 1, Manwe 2, Brinniel 5)
Nogrod: ++Manwe (Rune 4, Hookbill 1, Manwe 3, Brinniel 5)
Nogrod: --Manwe, ++Rune (Rune 5, Hookbill 1, Manwe 2, Brinniel 5)

Did not vote: Gil-Galad, Manwe

[Thinlómien]

Day1
#25 Speaks about the roles and the quantities, "Everyone who's discussing how the wolves are/will behave is out of their minds. It's Day 1. The wolves don't have to do anything but sit back and let everyone get confused, bogged down by theories and plans." Says she agrees with Sauce and Nogrod, but doesn't elaborate about what. Calls the SPM-Mänwe interaction interesting. Finds Mith's comment about gifteds strange. Is irked by Glirdy's post. Comments on a remark by Garin. Promises a vote for us to chew soon.
#29 Agrees with Rune about Mänwe acting weirdly in his few latest posts. Says Mänwe's talking the ultimate Day1 in-character nonsense. Says she has nothing else to go on and votes him. Says she'll be back to reconsider the vote.
#84 Doesn't like the idea of lynching Nog or SPM simply because they'd be dangerous as faithfuls. Mänwe doesn't sit right with her, but she thinks a faithful would maybe be more honey-tongued. Says Rikae's vote for Mänwe wasn't suspicious per se, but that it was so close after her own Mänwe-vote makes it odd. Apologises to Garin and finds him "pretty darn odd looking".
#107 I suspicious of Rikae and Garin, but not probably enough to switch from Mänwe. Agrees with Mith about Roa being very loud and wanting to lynch SPM. Answers to TGWBS why was she worried about Glirdy not saying much, but not about Kath. Thinks Hookbill has a good point about Mänwe and says that makes her think he's the cobbler. Does not like Mänwe's comment that he wants Nog lynched. Agrees with Nogrod that in werewolf people always tend to go after the easy targets. Asks if Nogrod has any new thoughts (since he suggested the "possibility of looking things anew").
#110 Right after Rikae revealing: "Oh lord, I knew this was going to be off to a bad start..." and a switch form Mänwe to Garin.
#125 "Wow, there were a lot more people around then I thought. I guess I jumped the gun thinking voting Garin was my only option. Argh."

Comments: Well, she spends a lot of time agreeing with this and that. Her first vote is weird. I mean, she promises to vote soon though she's sure she can come back. Then she votes someone who (it seems) she wasn't really very suspicious of ("there's nothing better to go on"). Why do this? Why just not vote? Because she's a wolf who wants to ensure she's voted early and no one can blame her since that was a reasonable vote at that phase, but later she'd need to make a more reasoned vote? Also, I can't understand that last comment of hers. During the day, she expressed suspicion of three people: Mänwe, Rikae and Garin. She had voted Mänwe previously and had switched to Garin. She knew Rikae was the seer. What's the lost possibility she was after? I don't understand. She seems suspicious.

Day2
#141 Cheers the ranger, says she's now a bit more hopeful. Wonders how Rikae can be sure that the ranger protected her. "Why would the wolves choose to risk wasting a nice kill? Is it simply stupidity, or were they that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason?" Agrees with Rikae about Rikae-voters (she said that looking her voters isn't probably very useful). says she'll have a look at Garin-voters and those who did not join bandwagons. States that wolves have no need to join a bandwagon on Day1. Says to Mänwe Roa's analysis are helpful. Says she had neither a case against Mänwe the Day before nor lots of things to back her suspicion.
#150 Says she missed the protectee-will-be-told -rule.
#156 A sarcastic remark about Gil's behaviour. Thanks Roa for the analysises, says the one about Hookbill is the most interesting one, implies that she'll be watching him. Repeats that the Garin-voters should be looked at.
#216 Is cheerful of Rikae's success. Says she has no reason to doubt Rikae and that Roa should be ignored. Wonders about Roa expressing faith in Legate, but doesn't reach any conclusion. Talks about the cobbler. Corrects my vote summary. Says that I, Brinn and Hook have " bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts - - , but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible." Thinks Brinn's vote for Legate was a safe one, does not know what to think of him.
#228 Says Rikae has a good point when she says Roa should be left alive, but says that Roa can do a lot of harm while alive by for example voting. Replies to Roa.
#262 "I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that 'wasting a lynch' on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative." Says that the village has spent a lot of time discussing Rikae and Roa and that if Roa is not lynched, the lynch target will be far too random. Does a little vote summary. "If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait". Says Roa's support makes Legate an easy target, says again that she has no idea of him. Agrees with TGWBS that we should look at those Roa didn't mention. Is concerned about Brinn and Kath and their quietness.
#268 "Everyone's right about people "dropping like flies," and I really don't want us to end up stuck with a Cobbler and x number of wolves, with the few innocents left carried along with the tide." Says cobblers are nassty to have around, votes Roa. Says she can change if a better suggestion emerges.
#278 Agrees with Nogrod about "clarity". "Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark?"
#282 Says we're far from lost yet.

Conclusions: By no way as suspicious as her Day1. Actually she'd seem pretty innocent had she not made that weird comment about SPM ("If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait") and had she not been that eager to join TGWBS's campaing to search for clues from Roa's posts, and even in an over-simplistic logic.

Day3
#308 "Regardless of our odds, we have rid ourselves of a Cobbler. The wolves are ally-less, and we have two Gifteds still safe...as long as we don't try and lynch them." Says that (mathemathically speaking) there must be at least one wolf in those who wanted to keep Roa alive, implies that Roa was a good lynch target, defends this view against TGWBS. Suspects Mith is an acting bold wolf, since she was so over-dramatic.
#314 "I don't know what a wolf Mith would try to do, but it doesn't sit right with me." Sums up her feelings about people: Brinn - no clear opinion, Gil - totally uninvolved, TGWBS - has points for and against his wolvishness, Hookbill - thinks he's amiable and his style's setting people off, Kath - sneaky, Kitanna - sneakier than Kath, but innocent-looking, Lalaith - confusing, Legate - amiable and helpful -> pretending?, Mänwe - confusing, Sauce - normal expect less involved, Lommy - too silent and edgy. Suspects Rune because he had a "way better feel" about Legate and still voted him and because his Roa-comments and notes that Rune has gone amost unnoticed. Does not understand the save Roa -campaign.
#316 Jokes to SPM.
#331 Defends her cheerfulness about Rikae having dreamt by the cobbler. says that her vote for Mänwe on Day1 was she trying to see if people would wake up a bit.
#364 Asks Mith for reasons to her suspects, wants to know what she thinks of Brinn. Names Rune and Lalaith her top suspects. "She [Lalaith]'s been nice and cautious, and makes it seem like she expresses her own opinions, though her opinions are nicely placed after someone else has already expressed similar ones, as if she's helping guilt along." Asks Lal a question.
#389 Replies Lalaith. Notes about silent people (Mänwe, Hookbill, Gil). Does not understand the concern over my mistake. Votes Rune.
#396 Asks Nogrod how has her playing style changed (since Nog said so).
#404 Says Rune's not a last-minute lynch and that not many people seem to suspect him.
#415 "Are we ever going to cease making this difficult for our poor Modalaure?"

Comments: Not that suspicious either. I think a wolf would have only been happy to jump at my mistake, and that kind of makes me less wary of her. Her explanation of her day1 vote is reasonable... but in a slightly wolvish way. It's so easy to say that afterwards. I don't like her comment about wolves being ally-less... In my opinion a cobbler isn't that big loss to the wolves, especially not when there's four of them and they're all still alive. The phrasing of that comment just bugs me.

Final comments
There's not as much reason- or sense-based reasons to suspect her as I thought there was. (But there's still plenty of them , especially in her Day1 -behaviour.) But, my gut-feeling of her being a faithful has become even stronger. There's something in her manner that really doesn't sit right with me.

EDIT: xed

[Nogrod]

Thus far I have believed SpM to be innocent, but his continued life makes me doubt him a little.

Ah, here we go. The point that plagues me every game where I last more than a few Days ... Now now... Have we seen an act looking more Faithfulish than this? Look at the bolding and make your deductions...

Darn shared computer and most of all the timetables - and clock anyway! I try to look at some things briefly now. I will be back later, although in the middle of RL rush. Still I try to find some time to sit down for at least one good while. It's so frustrating to have one's last Day alive in the middle of gazillions of hindrances... :mad:

[Nogrod]

I don't know why I haven't been killed. Then again, I don't know why Mithalwen hasn't been killed. Or Lalaith. Or many others still here. I suspect, however, that being one of the chief suspects of the only known innocent and nearly being lynched in place of the Cobbler two Days ago might have something to do with it ... "Or many others still here..." You're right with this! Why wouldn't they have killed Mith or Lalaith, or Lommy or Durelin or tgwbs or Legate or...? How do you make a difference? Maybe one should look at whom the Faithfuls wouldn't like to see around in this confused situation where everyone is as suspicious as any other? But they would not kill one of themselves as the rules deny the chance...

So whom do we have there but you Mr. SPM? It was the Faithfuls' first actual night of open choice last Night if you don't remeber. They had everyone but me on their plate... and if you're innocent they just happily ignored you as they thought that an innocent Spm's analysis would leave them intact toDay and would be less of a threat to them than Rune? Remember the numbers...

As for the reason behind Rune's death, I think that Nogrod has probably put his finger on it. His final two words most likely sealed his fate, suggesting as they did his innocence. Although it will be worth looking at those he suspected and those who voted for him to see whether there may have been other motivesYou just can't be serious here! In this situation the Faithfuls have no reason to shy away from killing an "innocent Spm" just because Rune had one of them on his suspicion list! C'mon man and admit it! :rolleyes:

So aren't you now trying to mislead people here to spend their time on that? The killing of Rune can be explained as it's clearly because of his honest frustration ("Silly sods") when he thought (mistakingly) that we had lynched him. But just consider the scale here. Somewhat dubiously shared belief of Rune's innocence (which four Faithfuls could thwart easily at least to a degree where it would not be a shared fact) vs. the possibly damning analyses by Spm?

I have backed down with suspecting you lately because of a lack of any further evidence and because I have thought (and still do) that as an innocent you would be an asset to the village, but now I'm getting the "proofs" I need to call for your immediate lynching... followed by lynching of tgwbs who has generously come to "doubt you a little". :D

Sorry guys but you are caught. :cool:

That's what I think anyway now.

I hope I will have time enough later toDay to elaborate on this and possibly to see to some others too (Durelin I'm a bit worried about but just can't pin it down as yet).

[Gil-Galad]

so with Nogrods reasoning TWGBS and SPm should be looked at closely, if they are two faithfuls then that is indeed dangerous... so i shall have to go ahead and vote for one of them, if either of them is innocent and the other may be too, and seeing that SPm may be a greater asset my vote goes for this

++The Guy Who Be Short

[Durelin]

Okay, that last minute Brinniel thing confused me just as much as the last minute try-to-save Roa thing did. Again, it was like people were trying to rescue Rune, rather than vote for who they were actually suspicious of. I am really bothered by how people, even if they speak their own minds, do not back it up with a vote. Rather than voting for who they find suspicious, they vote for just who "looks like they can be lynched," who maybe they suspect a little, maybe even more than a little...but all the while their top suspect is forgotten, and all the analysis or what have you they did against them becomes meaningless.

Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.

I am not going to get over Mith, I'm sorry. I just don't get her attitude. She's making as big of a fuss as possible over the state of the village at every turn, but not doing much about it. The past two Days she's rushed in at the last minute to save first a probable Cobbler and then an at that time unknown from lynching. YesterDay she specifically switched her vote to do so from Lalaith. She switched her vote from Lalaith to match Lalaith's. Eh?

The Brinniel bandwagon really started with a simple spite vote from Rune. It's absurd. Yes I suspected her a bit, but obviously I didn't see a reason to lynch her immediately...and no one seemed to give much of a reason, either.

Lalaith: "I don't much like the choices we've got but like I said before, it's a toss-up for me between her and Manwe, and I don't think Rune's guilty."

Lommy: "of my suspects she can be lynched"

Mith gives no reason for her switched vote, and Legate, though he at least seems to have been fairly "sure" of her guilt, doesn't give a reason for his certainty.

Not all of those people can be wolves, so it seems some of the innocents in this game are using as many underhanded tactics as the wolves likely are, strategizing their lynch targets based on who can be lynched.

Lommy - I thought I explained my Day 1 vote in the very post my vote was in, but when I look back at the actual post...obviously, I wasn't very clear. But I talked about "stirring things up" in my previous post, so if you think I was explaining it away later, at least I was consistent, eh?

I swear no one's paid attention to me in games in a while. Because unless I'm going completely crazy, I know that voting early when I don't have to is something I sometimes do, just to see what happens.


had she not made that weird comment about SPM ("If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait") and had she not been that eager to join TGWBS's campaing to search for clues from Roa's posts, and even in an over-simplistic logic.

Ouch. Over-simplistic? If I was over-simplifying things, I certainly wasn't reading very deeply into Roa's posts, now was I? And I meant by my comment that considering the only person who was vehemently supporting suspicion of SPM (well, other than Gil, sort of) turned out to be the Cobbler, we should probably forget about all her reasons of why to lynch him. I tend to think aloud in my posts, so basically that was me trying to narrow down the suspects in my mind.

Edit: Crossed with Nog and Gil

[Nogrod]

And I meant by my comment that considering the only person who was vehemently supporting suspicion of SPM (well, other than Gil, sort of) turned out to be the Cobbler, we should probably forget about all her reasons of why to lynch him. I tend to think aloud in my posts, so basically that was me trying to narrow down the suspects in my mind.What happened just a moment ago? Did I have some suspicions over Durelin? And just see what she writes here...

So we should not lynch Spm and conveniently she forgets that I have also suspected Spm from Day1 on quite openly. I think I was indeed the first to suspect him with anything like a point added...

So do we have three wolves in a list of Spm, tgwbs, Durelin...?

Oh you can't be that easy to pick now! Where's the sport now? :rolleyes:

Or maybe it was the first actual choice you Faithfuls had to make that just revealed you as you had to try and make it good?

Okay. I'm off for a while but if you will pay heed to an innocent's point of view, think closely before you let these three to turn your minds. If they are the Faithfuls they're surely be honey-tongued and reasonable. No doubt.

tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three? :D

[Durelin]

Nogrod - SPM's wording, particularly what you highlighted there, indeed seems to scream *ploy*. The subtlety of it makes it so...well, blatant. But I don't follow your logic much further. I think it's very odd for anyone to bring up the "oh, lad-dee-da, I wonder why I haven't been killed yet... *whistles*" (and lord, particularly when the wolves have only made one free choice on kills, as you said), but you also seem to venture into the idea that SPM or someone else considered *dangerous* should have been killed in the Night. But it's the smartest thing for the wolves to leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion. As you've said, they've only made one "free" choice, so why would they take out someone who might get lynched?

I think I'm reading that wrong, so perhaps you shouldn't waste your time explaining that I am. :rolleyes:

Edit: Crossed with Nog, again.

[Durelin]

Nogrod - In what you quote, I was explaining myself to Lommy, not expressing my [edit: current] opinions on SPM, and certainly not in response to your post. If I didn't know you were innocent, I'd say you were "grasping." :p

What if I did say I didn't think we should lynch SPM? What does that really say? I certainly put weight in your opinions, and you are a valuable ally, but you are not the Seer. I'll think for myself, as well. Something that so far has been difficult, and left us in this boat of 9 against 4.

If we do have a wolf in SPM or TGWBS, though, we'll be in a much better one.

[Nogrod]

but you also seem to venture into the idea that [b]SPM or someone else considered *dangerous* should have been killed in the Night. But it's the smartest thing for the wolves to leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion. As you've said, they've only made one "free" choice, so why would they take out someone who might get lynched?
Spm generally is lynched very early on for some nonexistent grounds by whims of the first Days or then he stays to the end. (Please Spm correct me if I'm wrong about the general tendency) I could indeed bet a nice amount for seeing a village that would lynch Spm after let's say Day5. He's good in this game and can work his way to be the one whom the others trust.

So the possibility of him being lynched is overtly thin indeed (no pun intended :D). That's one of the main reasons - not the only one - I'm getting assured he's a Faithful.

Also, please Durelin, list me the names of those who have not gotten "at least some suspicion" around here... :)

So what do you have for the Faithfuls to "leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion"? Should they have abstained from killing anyone?

And whom would you... *coughsorrycough* ... the Faithfuls not see alive?

How is it that he's alive and you are defending him again? It's a sad thing to see one digging her own grave but when it's one of them terrible Faithfuls I must say we true Numenorians rejoice in all this... :p

Nice to see things unfolding after so long time of darkness and doubt...

EDIT: X'd with Durelin

[Nogrod]

I certainly put weight in your opinions, and you are a valuable ally, but you are not the Seer. I'll think for myself, as well.You're encouraged to do that... I have never said I should be seen as any Mr. Right here. But unlike with all the others you all know that I'm not trying to do harm to this village... Obviously everyone decides for oneself. How else it could be? And hopefully everyone also thinks her/himself!

But what I can see from your reactions?

Well they don't exactly dispel my suspicions... quite on the contrary. :)

It's so nice to get comfirmation to ones suspicions...

[Durelin]

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.

I have been in games with SPM before, and I recall one in which I helped in his lynching on Day 3 or 4, as a bumbling innocent. A Ranger, I think.

I'm not defending SPM, Nogrod; I have a problem with your logic. And if I'm "digging my own grave," then so be it. At least I'm still free of my Day/Night 3 curse.

Edit: Crossed again

[Nogrod]

I'm not defending SPM, Nogrod; I have a problem with your logic.Funny that tgwbs thinks the same... :D

When I come back I'll try to have some minutes for this logic-stuff too. It's just outrageous what tgwbs passes forwards with the epithet of logic. :)

And if I'm "digging my own grave," then so be it. At least I'm still free of my Day/Night 3 curse.In this situation, from the innocent point of view it's most comfortable that the Faithfuls start to dig their own graves. A relief, I'd say. And I'm more than happy to help you out from your Day/Night3 curse - not that I'm needed with that anymore as it's already Day4... :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category."Haven't been suspected" and "haven't been voted" are different things my dear friend... You know it as well as I do. But why try to say something like that? To shadow the points and to stick to interpretating words in a convenient way to you?

Now where is the common good, the good of the villagers? :)

You need to fight better than this... :smokin:

[Nogrod]

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.The best flip so far! So nice to have noticed this... Now what is this? "Them"? The innocents you mean? So not us as innocents? :D

They (the innocents) suspect you or people in general and you (the faithfuls) scheme around and orchestrate the things?

Well there is and end to that and it's here.

Three of you are caught. We only need the fourth one... :D

[Durelin]

I'm going to sleep.

(Anything wolfish there, Nogrocissist?)

[Thinlómien]

Oh, I see, Gil's come and voted again... :rolleyes:

Well, that argument of Durelin's and Nogrod's is something quite weird...

While I give credit to Nogrod's theory (and to his logic :p) I think he's a bit harsh there. I certainly would not be surprised to find TGWBS and Durelin wolves - I've suspected them from quite early - and Sauce isn't the most innocent-looking of villagers either (so all in all Nog's theory is a good one), but I think Nog has got a bit too enthusiastic about his theory: I think he's reading a bit too much to Durelin's responses. (Yes, believe it or not, I'm defending one of my main suspects here. :rolleyes: )
Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.
"Haven't been suspected" and "haven't been voted" are different things my dear friend... You know it as well as I do. But why try to say something like that? To shadow the points and to stick to interpretating words in a convenient way to you?I think this is a good example of it. I got the impression Durelin used the voting-thing to demonstrate the not many have really been suspected -argument, while Nogrod draws equation marks between Durelin saying "not really suspected" and "not voted". Overall Durelin's responses seem a bit edgy, which might point to a nervous wolf, but it's worth keeping in mind that an innocent may turn quite edgy too while facing that kind of consistent attack. And no, this little defense of Durelin does not mean that I'd suspect her any less than I did before, merely that Nogrod's a bit too enthusiastic about his case and I'm not sure if all his points concluded form his and Durelin's dialogue are valid. So, my thoughts: Nogrod's case - very good; Durelin - suspicious; the points Nogrod has against Durelin in their dialogue - partly good, pertly bad.

I'd love to do an analysis of TGWBS before I go, but as it took quite a long time to do the Durelin-one, I'm not sure if I have time...

[Thinlómien]

As stupid and irritating as it is, I must go now. That's a real pity since over half of the village hasn't said anything toDay yet and so much can still happen and that happening can be pretty much anything.

++DURELIN

I've kind of stated my suspicons against her quite many times (see especially the analysis I made toDay). Also, Nogrod has some valid points against her. For the first time in this game I'm quite confident I'm voting a wolf, so let's pray the Darkness I'm not mistaken here, because then I'm completely on the wrong track.

It'd be quite nice to get a faithful toDay... A third of the persons who have voted or are going to vote toDay (unless Mänwe was a wolf) are evil, so they can sway the vote quite a bit and even more in the days to come, though it still takes them time to reach the fatal majority and win the game. Also, I just calculated, that unless there is a faithful-withdrawal or a succesful hunter kill this game is going to go on 'til Saturday even if we lynch a faithful every day! :eek:

[the guy who be short]

Well, well, an angry Nogrod on my case, eh? Let's see if my logic can persuade him otherwise. :p
Firstly, I don't get the point you're trying to make in highlighting "a little." Suspecting SpM when he lives on is natural, as you yourself show. However, the Faithful know that innocents think like this, so they may leave him alive, especially if his analyses are wayward, knowing that the village will eventually turn on him.


tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?If you look back, you will note that I did not advocate a shortlist this game. The way people keep bringing this up annoys me, because it is fabricated. I advocated using you as a base. I also said that a shortlist in this village would be mathematically unwise as we don't have enough known villagers.

As it is, I don't much mind being on your shortlist. I see no reason why I should be exempt from your suspicion. But the idea of a shortlist in this game (not universally) is flawed. Observe:

There are 12 unknown villagers. 4 are wolves. This means the probability of there being at least one wolf in a shortlist of 3 is 1 - (2/3)^3 = 70%. Good odds.

However, with only 1 known innocent, the wolves have too much sway in the voting. There's a 44% chance of 1 wolf, a 22% chance of 2 wolves and a 4% chance of 3 wolves (as well as 30% 0 wolves). It's therefore most likely that there's one wolf. This means the four wolves can have huge influence by voting for the other two candidates, making the rest of the villagers also pay more attention to the innocent targets.

Comprendrez? Shortlist = good with lots of known innocents, small number of wolves. Shortlist = bad with few known innocents, large number of wolves.

I hope I've made that clear once and for all.


just outrageous what tgwbs passes forwards with the epithet of logic.I'm a mathematician, and I'm afraid I think mathematically. I stand by my ideas - such as leaving Roa alive. Perhaps if everybody else had ignored her, we'd have caught a wolf by now. Thank you for digging up what you advised to forget, anyway.


I notice how Gil voted for me as soon as he saw there was some support from Nogrod. If Manwe pulls out, I'll be voting Gil, because they way he's just floating on without anybody paying attention to him is dangerous.

[the guy who be short]

Hookbill

The first thing I notice is that he has only made 12 posts. Exclusive of Day 1 banter:

Post 179 - Just says he's new and not too good at the game.

Post 229 - Accuses Kath.

Post 323 - Slight suspicion of SpM. Accuses Manwe.

Post 411 - Votes Manwe.

Post 424 - Says his vote for Manwe was because he had little to go on. Slightly suspicious of those who voted for Brinniel.


Five posts over three days... And he says very little to analyse. The Manwe vote and then saying it was because he had nothing to go on might be a wolf-on-wolf vote, but there's nothing to think suspect really. As with Gil but to a lesser extent, I suspect him a little (yes, a little!) because he gives little to suspect. But not much to worry about I'd say.

[Lalaith]

I'm quite glad it's reasonably quiet at the moment - I'm getting a chance to spend my Sunday morning reading the thread more closely than I've had a chance to, up til now. I'll be back in with some analysis later on. But I'm at a loss to understand this:
third of the persons who have voted or are going to vote toDay (unless Mänwe was a wolf) are evil,

Eh? Why is Manwe being referred to in the past tense?

[Lalaith]

I've just seen a reference in guy's post above about Manwe pulling out. I've clearly missed something.

[the guy who be short]

8 posts total. Since Day 2, then:

Post 245 - Devotes a whole long post to the Roa-rikae debate. Regardless of where you stand on lynching Roa, devoting time to the debate is suspicious, especially if that's all you do, because it stopped any serious analysis being done in the latter half of that day.

Post 320 - Accuses Hookbill.

Post 352 - votes Hookbill.

So... three posts in 3 days.

Despite her quietness, I will cut her some slack because she's had blizzards. While she says very little, I think she makes good points about Hookbill, and she seems sincere. I'm leaning to thinking her innocent.

[the guy who be short]

Lal - Manwe said he'd like to pull out on the Admin thread, though it has now been deleted by mormegil. Mac has yet to respond.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nogrod, if I didn't know better, I'd be convinced that you are a Faithful trying to twist my words. Which just goes to show (for me, anyway) how easy it is to view malign intent behind innocent, but misguided, words. You seem to have made up your mind that I am a Faithful and are now looking for anything in what I say which might support that theory. Unfortunately, your theory is wrong.

Now now... Have we seen an act looking more Faithfulish than this? Look at the bolding and make your deductions...You quoted only TGWBS, yet I was responding to both you and TGWBS. To be honest, I get really fed up when suspicion starts building on me later in the game just because I am still alive. I suspect that the Faithfuls are well aware that some people think like this and it probably goes some way to explaining just why I am still alive, particularly given the suspicion that I have been under in previous Days.

So whom do we have there but you Mr. SPM? It was the Faithfuls' first actual night of open choice last Night if you don't remeber. They had everyone but me on their plate... and if you're innocent they just happily ignored you as they thought that an innocent Spm's analysis would leave them intact toDay and would be less of a threat to them than Rune?You yourself pointed out the likely reason for Rune's death. I can well understand why they would kill an innocent looking Rune (after that comment) than an SpM under serious suspicion. And I think that you do others a disfavour by thinking that I would be the obvious choice for the Faithfuls when they have a free choice of who to kill.

You just can't be serious here! In this situation the Faithfuls have no reason to shy away from killing an "innocent Spm" just because Rune had one of them on his suspicion list!I was actually agreeing with you that Rune's last minute comment most likely explains his death. But that does not mean that we should not consider other possibilities.

Nogrod, I do not expect to be free from examination. But please try to bring some objectivity to bear. You are to valuable to us toDay not to do so.

I need to get down to looking at those Day 3 votes but unfortunately, it is going to have to wait until after lunch. I hope to have a lot more time to do some analysis this afternoon.

[the guy who be short]

10 posts from him. Day 2 onwards:

Post 194 - Devotes a little time to Roa-Rikae debate, defends himself against Rune, defends Lommy and Hookbill.

Post 269 - Says he has no particular suspects.

Post 275 - Votes Roa.

Post 288 - Asks Rikae who she thinks we should vote for before she dies (that night). I don't know why. She already told us what she thought.

Post 342 - Thinks I advocated a shortlist. :rolleyes: Suspects Mith for wanting to not lynch Roa.

Post 407 - Suspects Brinniel, Kitanna, Thinlomien. Mildly suspects Durelin, Mithalwen. Neutral about Gil-Galad, Kath, Lalaith, Manwe, SpM. Neutral about me, though I am narrow-viewed, apparently. Thinks Hookbill, Rune innocent.


I'm uneasy about Legate. Unlike some quiet posters, who we notice for being quiet - Kitanna, Gil - he says just enough to not attract attention for quietness. Like the others, he seems to fly under the radar a little, but more effectively. My mind also goes back to his Brinniel-Hookbill intervention. However, he offers quite a few opinions, which I see as innocent. Hookbill and Gil, meanwhile, are notable for their lack of input, meaning we have nothing to trace them back on.

[Nogrod]

I just had time to pop in and reread toDay and update myself. I'm off for a while again but will be back and hopefully have some time to try and figure out even something out of this mess we're in.

I just wish to show you this that somehow escaped me earlier.
Okay, that last minute Brinniel thing confused me just as much as the last minute try-to-save Roa thing did. Again, it was like people were trying to rescue Rune, rather than vote for who they were actually suspicious of. I am really bothered by how people, even if they speak their own minds, do not back it up with a vote. Rather than voting for who they find suspicious, they vote for just who "looks like they can be lynched," who maybe they suspect a little, maybe even more than a little...but all the while their top suspect is forgotten, and all the analysis or what have you they did against them becomes meaningless.Now this looks very innocent to be honest. I indeed had to read it twice as I tried to figure out how on earth a Faithful would go on with this kind of speculation. It's not so much the contents of this but the fact that she goes on to speculate this kind of thing.

But then she continues.
Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!

Confused... :confused:


tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three? :D
If you look back, you will note that I did not advocate a shortlist this game. The way people keep bringing this up annoys me, because it is fabricated........A bit uptight now aren't we? As that clearly was a joke...

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression? :rolleyes:

Which just goes to show (for me, anyway) how easy it is to view malign intent behind innocent, but misguided, words. You seem to have made up your mind that I am a Faithful and are now looking for anything in what I say which might support that theory.You know it as well as I do that basically anyone can be painted black if that is wished for. But I have not decided anything in advance and am trying very much not to overdo this as I think it be of an utmost importance that I will not mislead anyone toDay.

[the guy who be short]

So far, Lommy, Legate, Kath and you (Nogrod) have accused me of supporting a shortlist. If I'm uptight, it's because people seem to have a shared delusion that I, at some point, said "Hey guys! Let's all vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, despite the maths."


It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?
It really does seem that you're just clutching at any straw you can get your hand on. Even if it's imaginary. I have the third highest post count among the living villagers, and have been offering analyses every day.

[The Saucepan Man]

Lunch over. :D

So here, as promised, is my analysis of the Day 3 votes

TGWBS: Voted for Brinniel on the basis that she was neither for nor against lynching Roa. Subsequently switched to Manwe on the basis that he thought him trying to sow seeds of doubt in the villager’s mind about Rikae. I don’t find the switch particularly suspicious, as there was little suggestion at the time that Brinniel would end up being lynched. However, I am rather dubious about his reasoning for voting for Manwe. Manwe was strongly in favour of lynching Roa because he thought that she was lying, but thought it was also a good idea even admitting the small possibility that she was not. I rather agree with his (Manwe’s) reasoning. I still have some suspicion of TGWBS, because I am concerned that he may have been twisting Manwe‘s words here.

Kitanna: Voted for Hookbill for seeming to hide behind a “mask of newbieness” and consistently claiming to be a bad judge of character. I cannot fault her reasoning, as I am uneasy about Hookbill for the same reason. However, Hookbill is one of those who has been bubbling under in the village’s suspicions, but with little prospect of attracting too many votes. And, despite being plagued by blizzards, there was always a possibility that she could return and switch her vote, if necessary. I have concerns that Kitanna may well be a "slip under the radar" Faithful and, of all the Day's votes, this one looks the safest Faithful vote to me. It may even have been a Faithful-on-Faithful vote.

Kath: Voted for Rune for safe voting and for casting suspicion without much reasoning. I found Rune suspicious for much the same reason. She put Rune ahead here, with 2 votes, and, in light of her vote, I doubt that a Faithful Kath would have advocated killing Rune in the Night. Also, she gives a long analysis of all the villagers and states where she stand with each one before voting, which makes me feel better about her. Inclined to think her innocent at present.

Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of previously stated suspicions, and then switches to Brinniel because she thought her more suspicious than Rune. Her vote for Lalaith was not particularly safe, given that there was a fair amount of suspicion around Lal at the time. I am concerned about the bandwaggon that suddenly gathered around Brinniel at the end, although I am not sure that a Faithful would have had much to gain by being included in it. That said, whoever speculated that the Brinniel voters had good reason to kill Rune in the Night had a good point and I do think that there was one Faithful, possibly two, among the last minute Brinniel voters. I don’t, however, think it was Mith, as she has not been acting like I would expect a Faithful Mith to act.

Durelin: Voted for Rune on the basis that he was her original suspect of the Day and she had “seen this kind of Rune before”, putting him 2 votes ahead of anyone else. I do find Durelin suspicious and her run-in with Nogrod earlier toDay does not reassure me, as it may have been a Faithful attempt to associate herself with an innocent. Like Kath, I do wonder whether a Faithful Durelin would have been so bold as to kill Rune in the Night, after this vote. That said, if there was a Faithful among the Rune voters, I think this to be the one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Lalaith: Voted for Brinniel, bringing her to 2 votes. She said that she didn’t much like the choices, but that it was a toss-up between Brinniel and Manwe as she didn’t find Rune suspicious. Now, there was inevitably a bit of confusion surrounding these last minute votes and switches. But this was the vote that started the slide towards Brinniel’s lynching. As such, it looks more suspicious to me than those which came later. I also don’t really like the comment about disliking the choices. It may well have been intended to give the option of distancing herself from the situation if Brinniel was lynched and found innocent (as happened). Lalaith remains high in my suspicions.

Lommy: Voted for Brinniel, saying that, of those she found suspicious, only she could be lynched. Much the same applies as with regard to Lalaith above. I am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be. If so, both voting for Brinniel at this stage was dangerous but, given the timing, it may well have been a cross-post and retracting would have looked even more suspicious.

Legate: Voted for Brinniel, although I am not entirely sure from his reasoning why. This followed an analysis of each villager. My concerns over Legate yesterDay were based on the fact that he seems to say a lot without saying much. His analysis does not ease my concerns in that regard. His vote for Brinniel was a cross-post so, if he is a Faithful, he may have unintentionally voted here with one of his friends. Still looking suspicious to me.

Hookbill: Voted for Manwe because of a hunch that he was untrustworthy, putting him on 3 votes. Given the confusion, I am not sure that this was the safe vote it might otherwise seem (Brinniel was on 5 votes at the time). That said, I remain suspicious that he has given very little away about what he thinks and has voted for Manwe on both Days that he has voted without really giving any solid reasons. I am still wary of him.

Based on that and my previous thinking, my current list is as follows:

Suspicious
Lalaith
Durelin
Lommy
Kitanna

Somewhat suspicious
TGWBS
Hookbill
Legate

No idea
Gil-Galad

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe
Kath
Mithalwen

Innocent
Nogrod

Does anyone know if Manwe is still playing? I missed all the furore on the Admin thread. Even if not, I guess we won’t know his innocence or guilt until toNight? Mac?

[The Saucepan Man]

Quote:
Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.

This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!There is much in Durelin that I find suspicious. But this comment of hers doesn't set my alarm bells ringing in quite the same way. Would you mind explaining your reasoning?

You know it as well as I do that basically anyone can be painted black if that is wished for. But I have not decided anything in advance and am trying very much not to overdo this as I think it be of an utmost importance that I will not mislead anyone toDay.Glad to hear it. But your earlier posts toDay suggested to me quite the opposite. And I am concerend over your reasoning when you say that Rune was killed because his last minute comment when he thought that he had been lynched strongly suggested his innocence (with which I agree), and yet you also say that somone under quite serious suspicion (ie me) would have been a better candidate.

[The Saucepan Man]

Am I the only one here? :(

I’ve been thinking further about that last minute flurry of votes for Brinniel yesterDay. It can’t really be described as a “bandwaggon” because we have four votes for her which effectively look to have been cast at more or less the same time: those of Lalaith, Lommy, Mith and Legate. It would have been dangerous for the Faithfuls to be caught in a bandwaggon which led to the lynching of an innocent but, since this was not really a bandwaggon, different considerations apply. It seems to me quite likely that one Faithful, and possibly two, were caught up in that last minute Brinniel vote. And, as I indicated earlier, to retract would have been even more dangerous for a Faithful.

Of the Brinniel voters, I find Lalaith and Lommy the most suspicious, for reasons earlier stated. Legate is a distinct possibility too. I am still inclined to think Mith innocent.

But I am currently in a quandary over whom to vote for.

On the one hand, I feel sure that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and I am most inclined to vote for one of these two.

On the other hand, I am most uncomfortable about the way that Durelin was defending me against Nogrod earlier toDay. While Nogrod’s case against me, quite apart from being wrong, makes little sense, I am always rather dubious when I am defended by another villager in this way, particularly when it comes from someone over whom I am already suspicious. I am concerned that, seeing that I might be lynched, it may have been an attempt to associate herself with me, or at least to deter me from voting for her.

And on the third hand (if I may be allowed such a thing ;)), I am becoming increasingly concerned that one or two of the Faithfuls may be “fly under the radar” types. I have come across such types a few times before, usually to my (and the village’s detriment). In this regard, I am particularly concerned about Kitanna, who has contributed relatively little, voted relatively safely (Garin, a no vote and Hookbill) and generally steered well clear of suspicion. I am also wary of Hookbill and Legate, as I have said. And I am distinctly uncomfortable that we have practically nothing to go on with Gil-Galad. Even his voting gives little away.

I need to think this all through much more, but I currently remain undecided between these possibilities.

[Durelin]

Durelin's responses point to a tired Durelin who was not in the mood for nonsense. And I'm still not, because I woke up with a sinus headache as usual.


This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!

How does what you quoted not follow the previous paragraph? You have stated yourself that a third of the voters toDay are going to be wolves. They will undoubtedly sow the seeds of an innocent lynch as best they can, and will do all they can to make the lynch of an innocent the most convenient. The best way to try and avoid that is just to vote for who you are suspicious of! I don't know why that's such a novel idea.

I know I am expected to ignore you, or respond more "calmly," or what have you...but the issue here is not "omg, you think I'm guilty?! moi?" It's not like I've never been suspected before. The issue is first that you are being illogical, and second that you are behaving pompously. I think the fact that the Seer so often dreams of you is going to your head.

I may not be a mathematician like TGWBS, but I am at least a self-proclaimed philosopher.

We have way too many no-posters. I can just see the wolves sitting back and laughing as they watch Nogrod on his tirade making their job easy for them.

My main suspects are:

Mith - For what I stated in my first post toDay.
Lalaith - For leading the last minute Brinniel lynch pack.
Legate - For sliding by thus far and saying he was voting for Brinniel because he was suspicious of her, and not explaining why.
SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his
Lommy - Her "of my suspects, she can be lynched" thing. Maybe there's a bit of spite involved? Maybe.

Yes, five. Why? Because unlike some people, I am not under the delusion that I am the Seer and have dreamed of enough people to know who for certain who the four wolves are. It always comes down to Days like these, where everyone's like "we have to get a wolf, cause, duh, otherwise we're really screwed," and there are many times everyone even says "oh please hold your votes as long as you can and consider as carefully as you can," but it never turns out that way. Everyone jumps on something, and then it's all downhill from there.

So, I say again: first, everyone please try to vote toDay. Second, vote for who you think/feel is suspicious. If you think I'm suspicious, fine. Vote for me. But don't just vote for whoever Nogrod tells you to vote for. *cough*don'tbeaGil*cough* :p

Edit: Crossed with Saucie. He's as bad as Nogrod. :rolleyes: ;)

[the guy who be short]

20 posts from her. From Day 2:

Post 139 - Says we should look at Garin voters. Confused that Holby wasn't a wolf.

Post 144 - Confused about why the wolves went for Rikae as they should know the Ranger would protect her.

Post 153 - Says Rikae was safe, but she switched vote just in case.

Post 222 - Says she finds it too unlikely that Rikae is not the Seer. This is what an innocent would say.

Post 301 - Suggests that the known innocent chooses the lynching target - this is foolish and seems Faithful to me.

Post 306 - Nothing much.

Post 347 - Says she did not advise a Nogrod-led lynch, but that we should consider it.

Post 358 - Analysis of everybody. Suspects brinniel, durelin, me. Mildly suspects Legate, Manwe. Finds innocent Gil-Galad, Hookbill, Lommy. Neutral about Kath, Kitanna, Mith, Rune, SpM.

Post 367 - Says if she's lynched, look at those who voted for her.

Post 372 - Nothing much.

Post 374 - Supports Lommy's innocence.

Post 393 - Says she doesn't think Rune is a wolf, so she'll vote for brinniel or manwe, her top-running candidates. I also don't like the way people vote not for their top candidates, but who looks lynchable. This isn't British politics - go for your top suspect.

Post 400 - Votes Brinniel but doesn't like the choices - i.e. Brinniel, Rune, Manwe.

Posts 451-2 Confusion about Manwe's position.


What struck me going over was the overwhelming brevity of Lal's post. Though a comparatively frequent poster, only one of her posts was more than about six lines long. Again, I get the feeling she's keeping a presence without saying much.

I don't like the way she didn't vote for who she found most suspicious either. She also seems a little paranoid about being lynched - the "look at those who voted for me" post. Why?

Her behaviour has also been suspicious - the subtle suggestion that Nogrod should choose one lynching candidate, the way she switched her vote to Manwe to "save Rikae" and wondering why the wolves went for Rikae - a classic wolf bluff.

Quite suspicious, I think.

That concludes my analyses of all my neutrals yesterday. Here is a renewed table of suspicion:

Faithful-seeming
Manwe
Gil-Galad
Lalaith

Slightly suspicious
Lommy
Legate
Hookbill

Don't really know
Kath
Durelin

More innocent than faithful
Kitanna

Probably innocent
SpM
Mith

[The Saucepan Man]

SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his ... and his what?

You are seriously confusing me here, Durelin, and its not making me feel any better about you. First, you leap to my defence against Nogrod's poor "because he's still alive" case. Then you accuse me on the same basis. :rolleyes:

But don't just vote for whoever Nogrod tells you to vote for.I will take Nogrod's views into account if I think that he makes sense. And I am currently very interested in looking to see what he has said about you.

[the guy who be short]

We've been through three quarters of our day, and a frightening proportion of us have said absoultely nothing.

Even before I read the two posts above, I considered that the Faithful could very easily be several quiet villagers lying low and letting the loud get themselves killed. This would be a brilliant tactic because it's proven to work.

On the basis that Manwe might still pull out, and if he does, a vote for him would be wasted, I now vote for my second suspect:

++GIL-GALAD

[Kitanna]

Well the blizzards have stopped, but my access for the next few Days will be limited. So I'll try to do what I can now while I still have time.

Anywho, in one of his first posts of the day tgwbs suggested this as to why Rune was killed:
One theory is that there are a few wolves among the Brinniel voters who feared suspicion and so killed Rune, thereby showing that most of the rest of the village had also voted for an innocent yesterday. This would incriminate Lalaith, Legate, Lommy and Mith. But the more I think about it, the less this kill makes sense.
This seems a bit complex, but not without merit. Howver I was wondering if there was a simpler solution to Rune's death. I have every intention of going over Rune's posts to see if maybe he said something that could be considered a clue. Perhaps the faithfuls thought him a gifted. The Nogrod said this:
The killing of Rune can be explained as it's clearly because of his honest frustration ("Silly sods") when he thought (mistakingly) that we had lynched him.
Rune thought he had been lynched and made his "silly sod" comment. Maybe the faithfuls took that as a gifted remark. "Oh you silly people, you've lynched a line of defense." I will hopefully have time to go through Rune's posts afterall he is the first real kill for the faithfuls. The rest were simply musts.

I still retain my suspicions of Hookbill, but I'd like to take a closer look at what happened at the end of yesterday. All the hubbub that caused the lynching of Brinniel.

[The Saucepan Man]

Spm generally is lynched very early on for some nonexistent grounds by whims of the first Days or then he stays to the end. (Please Spm correct me if I'm wrong about the general tendency) I could indeed bet a nice amount for seeing a village that would lynch Spm after let's say Day5.I missed this earlier. I will indeed correct your wrong impression. I have been wrongfully lynched on a number of occasions later in the game, mainly due to bad voting decisions and the fact that I was still alive! :rolleyes:

Having looked at Nogrod’s case against Durelin, it seems to be largely predicated on his misguided suspicion of me. There is something there though because, as I have said, I am wary of her earlier attempts to defend me. So perhaps something may come of his mistrust of me, after all. :D

SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his If I may correct another misapprehension here, it was not me who raised the fact that I am still alive. It was Nogrod and TGWBS. Since it is something that irritates me intensely, I can hardly be expected not to react to it. I don’t like the way that you are emphasising this point by suggesting that it was me who brought it up.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I have been playing with a bit forced tenor toDay as I thought I would like to provoke some reactions. Now it seems that all my suspects - those I picked as ones that would be controversial enough - have answered in a way or another, I have my impression of their attitudes. Unfortunately it looks like the only people posting here are the same three people so there is little more I (or anyone else of you) could have learned from this little exercise. I truly hoped people would post and I (we) could see how people reacted to my "strongly confident cases"... :(

But as I see that people start to vote (three votes - three different candidates!) I must call this thing off as I'm afraid it is too risky now.

I would like to say how frustrated I'm about silence in the villages but maybe I won't. :p

Anyhow I'm getting a feeling that lynching one of the three - almost the only contributors toDay - might be unwise indeed as soon this village will die into silence if these people are lynched and the (remaining) Faithfuls can roam free.

[Durelin]

SPM - I never defended you for it; I disagreed with his logic. I'm sorry it seemed like I was defending you.

Also, what I said there was that I suspected you for being all "oh la-dee-da, I wonder why I'm not dead yet," as if you felt the need to explain. I do not suspect you just because you're still alive. That's just foolish, I agree - which is why I argued with Nogrod about it.


If I may correct another misapprehension here, it was not me who raised the fact that I am still alive. It was Nogrod and TGWBS.

You are right; I apologize. Just like everyone else, I don't read every post on the thread. So lynch me.


And sorry, I didn't finish my thought there. :o

Here it is: And his lacksydasical attitude, though it is typical of him, seems forced right now.

One more thing you're right about, SPM - the only case Nogrod ever had against me was based on my responses to his attacking me with my guilt preconceived. If you think that the fact that I won't ignore such an attack makes me guilty, then so be it.

At least the only person who's voted for me so far tried to put some reasoning behind it. Thank you, Lommy.

I'm only being confusing, even to myself, so I'll be back later.

*wanders off in need of painkiller*

Edit: Crossed with Nog. Ah, it seems the Nogrod I'm used to finally makes an appearance, perpetually unhappy with the silent ones. ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

Anyhow I'm getting a feeling that lynching one of the three - almost the only contributors toDay - might be unwise indeed as soon this village will die into silence if these people are lynched and the (remaining) Faithfuls can roam free.Nogrod, are you suggesting that we should consider lynching one of the "fly under the radar" types? I am tempted, but it would be risky indeed. They have been so quiet that there is nothing much to get a handle on which one (or more, I suppose) of them might be a Faithful. Of them, I am most concerned about Kitanna, for the reasons that I outlined earlier. Legate, I am undecided about, as I find it hard to read much from his posts, despite their length. That, in itself concerns me. I remain inclined to give Hookbill a chance to become more active (although didn’t he say that he would be more involved toDay?). As for Gil, well I don’t think that we are going to learn any more about him than we have already. A vote for him would be a shot in the dark, as far as I am concerned. We have a few Days left, as you pointed out earlier, but lynching one of these may be a luxury we cannot afford.

[Kitanna]

Mith, Legate, Lommy, and Lalaith were the last to vote for Brinniel. And of the four of them three (Mith, Lommy, and Lalaith) gave almost no reason. Mith didn't even give one.
So, looking at their posts from yesterday:

Lalaith~ After a few short posts finally voices some suspicions of Brinniel.
Brinniel - I’ve got very little experience of her. But the smooth dark-horse routine that others have commented on is a bit suspect. I don’t like the way that she seems to pick up the gauntlet Saucie throws down in post 336, voting for Rune almost as if she was dared to.
But this was put with every other villager and at the end of the post Lalaith declared Durelin her top suspect.
The post before her vote she states:
I don't think Rune is a wolf. None of my front-running suspects look like lynch prospects. So the way the voting is going, I will go for either Brinniel or Manwe, who are the most suspicious to me of the current prospects.
I don't understand why she let her top suspects fall off. Was it because they didn't look like they would garner any votes but her own? I don't like how Lalaith simply voted for Brinniel because she was just a "toss-up" between Manwe.

Mith~ After a few posts talking about Roa and the cobbler situation from the previous day, Mith puts out her suspicions:
I think it quite possible that Spm and Lalaith are faithful. But I still have a few pages to go.... Brinniel and Durelin are "inclined to suspect".
A few posts later she says this:
Well Brinniel seems to fit the profile fo a Flying Under the Radar-Wolf. Present, unremarkable on the surface, using novice status as a shield - not that she is alone. Hard to be specific but that kind of behavious makes me uneasy.... too uncontroversial.


As for Lalaith. She has seemed wrong since the beginning. Now normally we read each other well. This game I suspect her and she suspects me. I know I'm innocent....
After her vote for Lalaith Mith says:
I don't see why Rune is so suspicious.... Brinniel and Durelin seem more so.... may have to change my vote since noone agrees with me... :S rather help someone I suspect a bit lynched than let someone I don't suspect at all face the chop...
Then she changes her vote to Brinniel a bit later. If Mith is a faithful she knew Rune was not and clearly wasn't trying to save a fellow faithful. So why save him?
1) She is an innocent trying to save another villager she felt was innocent and so she jumped on the next most voted for player.
2) She is a faithful, thinking Rune will be killed at the end of the day and so changing her vote may make her look good.

Legate~ He only made two posts for the day, but in both Brinniel was mentioned as a suspect. I don't find his vote for her too odd.

Lommy~ At first Lommy suspects Durelin above most others. In her third post of the day she goes through the villagers and states an uneasiness about Brinniel, but others appear to have fallen higher on her suspicions (Durelin mainly). After reading Brinniel's post and suspicions of Rune Lommy states her own suspicions of Brinniel have been a bit eased. In the end she votes for Brinniel, possibly because she thinks Rune may be innocent.

Let's see here. Lalaith and Lommy both had Durelin as their top suspect, but decided to go with a moderate suspect instead. Mith felt Rune was truly innocent and most likely changed her vote to save him. Legate felt Brinniel suspicious, but his lack of posts yesterday is not much to go off of.

I find Lalaith and Lommy suspcious and I wouldn't be surprised to find them in cahoots. However, I think Mith is a bit more suspcious than those two. I'm unsure about Legate.

So in addition to Hookbill, I now think Mith, Lalaith, and Lommy could well be faithfuls.

[The Saucepan Man]

One more thing you're right about, SPM - the only case Nogrod ever had against me was based on my responses to his attacking me with my guilt preconceived. If you think that the fact that I won't ignore such an attack makes me guilty, then so be it.Well, having looked back at his case against you, it was largely predicated on his misguided (or possibly, it now appears, tactical) suspicion of me. Then again, you were high in my suspicions before all that happened, so I am not going to take my eye of you.

Lommy’s vote for Durelin toDay interests me. I find both suspicious, but this looks to me to be a most unlikely Faithful-on-Faithful vote, particularly as she has said that she will not be returning later. Which leads me to think that, if Durelin is guilty, Lommy is most likely innocent. Then again, it might also have been the vote of a Faithful seizing upon the opportunity that Nogrod presented, with his case against Durelin.

My top suspects remain:

Lalaith
Durelin
Lommy
Kitanna

I am going to take a further look back at Lalaith.

[Lalaith]

Reading through the thread in its entirety took a lot longer than I thought it would. Sigh. There went my Sunday. :rolleyes:

Anyway.
What I decided to do was look again at the people I was most uneasy about yesterday - Durelin, followed by Mith, guy and Saucie. I wanted to analyse more deeply where my original uneasiness about these people came from, and if it was justified. Also, to look at the rest of the village and see if I'd missed something. What follows is a bit sketchy, because I find that my notes are even more illegible than usual.

First thing. I'm sorry to return to cold vomit, as it were, but this business of Mith's first post.... Now, this wasn't actually the source of my uneasiness about Mith herself, at all. In fact, I quite understand why she was annoyed about the ensuing fuss. I know I was partly to blame, but at that time there was nothing else to talk about (we were the first 2 posters) and my comment was really just a "yes, but..." I was surprised that it escalated the way it did and I now note that the two who got most aggressively on her case were tgwbs and Durelin.
That bothers me. It's one of the things that makes me think there is a connection between those two, somehow.
Second thing about Guy - his inversion theory, re Roa's opinions. That is too crass for someone as clever as he is.
Durelin - when she wonders if the wolves "were that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason." Well, wolves are always desperate to kill the Seer. Why should she think these wolves would be more desperate? It's odd.

Now to Saucie. My uneasiness about him, I've realised, is that I get a constant feeling from his posts that he's trying to stitch people up rather than genuinely analyse to discover the truth, as a smart innocent should. There was the business of suspecting people who had not voted for Roa, and then suddenly suspecting people who did, even more.
And then his top suspects always seem to be innocents. On the first day it was Rikae and Noggie, then on the second (or third?) day he was "fairly sure" Rune and Brinniel were faithful, now his top suspects are myself and Lommy. I know I'm innocent - I don't know of course about Lommy but I strongly suspect her of being innocent.
Oh and Saucie, please, this is just plain insulting: am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be
Do you really think I would be such a crass Faithful as that?

And finally Mith- well, given that my deep uneasiness about guy and Durelin is partly down to them fussing about Mith's first post then I conclude that it's unlikely she could be a faithful alongside those two. I'm still worried about her but because I'm more uneasy about tgwbs and Durelin, I'm going to put her a bit further down the suspect list.

The rest of the village:
Hookbill - reading over his posts I've realised just how much he keeps apologising. I remember him as a wolf in WWIV and he was much the same, however this was his only other sortie into the game, so, maybe it's just his general style. I'm more uneasy about him than I was, however.
Legate - Conversely, I feel more easy about him having read his posts over. He is not quite as suave as I initially thought, and he seems to be trying hard to be helpful.
Kath I'm now feeling 50/50 torn about. Post 309 feels innocent to me - I like the fact she's trying to think outside the box on how to utilise innocents but 376 - her analysis of various players - seems to contain a few misreadings and misunderstandings which might be deliberate.
Kitanna - I still have very little idea.
Manwe - his temper tantrum leads me to think he might be innocent.

I still find Gil and Lommy the most innocent-seeming villagers, for the reasons I stated yesterday.

Oh and on a final note, I'd just like to defend the voting tactics that Guy and Durelin complained about. Personally, I am generally more confident in my hunches about who is innocent than my hunches about who is a wolf, so I often vote to save rather than to lynch. Eg, in this game I felt Garin and Rune were innocent so I voted for an alternative I was less sure about. On the other hand, if you are a player who is better at wolf-spotting, you will be voting to lynch. But we can debate about the benefits of these tactics further once the game is over....

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some sensible comments there from Kitanna, which make me feel somewhat better about her.

You make a good point that the Faithfuls may have thought Rune a Gifted for his "Silly Sods" comment. And your thoughts concerning those last minute Brinniel voters largely mirror my own, although I still don't see Mith's actions so far as being those of a Faithful, from what I know of her.

[Mithalwen]

I am here .... and skim reading have clearly missed stuff..... will stay to the end providing there is a point..... ie we aren't rearranging the proverbial deckchairs :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

So just a few short points and then it's unfortunately back to reading a bunch of essays... I'll be back for the last hours though and try to make the best out of them.

Then I'm just crossing my fingers that the Ranger got my hint yesterDay when I repeated my security of being alive toDay such many times so that s/he did not protect me last Night and I might still have one Day more in this game as on Tuesday I would actually have time to play more than toDay...

Spm: He behaved exactly as I thought. That unhappily doesn't prove anything. With him I was probably more after the reactions of the others. Unfortunately there were next to none of those. The whole row between Spm and Durelin about whether Durelin defended Spm or not looks interesting though. I will not erase Spm from my list of suspicion but neither do I see myself voting for him or encouraging anyone to lynch him toDay.

tgwbs: I think was even more uptight than I thought he would be. He clearly tried to keep up a composed manner but somehow I got the feeling that he was overdoing it somewhat. Comments like: I have the third highest post count among the living villagers, and have been offering analyses every day.just sound pretty bad to my ears at least. Also I must say that his vote on Gil-Galad looks to me the most unfortunate from the standpoint of the innocents. I do share his annoyance with the playing style of Gil but I'm not sure if we are having the luxury of testing the silent ones out anymore if we don't get a few Faithfuls off first...

Durelin: Her reactions were a bit confusing. Her tenor of almost hurt feelings and her open distaste regarding the way I played looked somewhat sincere. But then again that is a good tactics as well. I kind of thought she was slipping once or twice in our little "conversation" earlier toDay but there are points to balance them as well. I would suspect her a bit less than tgwbs at the moment. Which isn't a great relief to her but anyhow... :)

Others:

Gil jumped to my open suspicion very easily - like he did yesterDay too. With one appearance / Day where he just states that "as Nogrod suspects X, I'll vote him" I would be quite ready to vote him out just as a matter of principle. But I'm not sure that we can afford that as it will be somewhat totally random vote and there are still enough innocents to make the probabilities pretty bad for such a check. Here I disagree with tgwbs again and think he's up to no good...

Lommy also took my rant with Durelin in pretty too easily. She had analysed her earlier and come to a conclusion that she didn't actually have any points against her but still took my suspicions as they were and went with them. Lommy is a clever player and she might use things like this to her advantage. Although it must be said to her defence that she had to leave early and was forced to vote on that time and there was little time for her to make any major inquieries in the morning (RL).

EDIT: X'd from Kitanna...

[Nogrod]

One thing I'm a bit concerned with now (I haven't yet read everything that I crossposted with but feel this needs stating).

I can't see any special suspiciousness in the fact that in the last moments of the Day people need to consider their votes also from the viewpoint of who can actually be lynched. On the contrary! I tend to regard people who stick to their personal ideas in a tight situation and thence not take a stance much more suspicious "safe-voters" who don't dirt their hands in actual decisions.

[the guy who be short]

Nogrod - How do you expect me to react to accusations that are more insulting than useful? My comment about my posting and analysing was in reply to this:

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?Seeing you imply that I have been lying low these last few days when I've spent so much time analysing every single villager is going to provoke a reaction.

Lal - re Roa inversion. I think it impossible that a Cobbler would accuse somebody they think to be a wolf. About their innocent feelings, they might be more honest, but they have no interest in accusing potential-wolves.

Kitanna - I don't understand your analysis of Mith. You think she voted to save an innocent rune, yet you find her more suspicious than Lommy and Lalaith?

[Nogrod]

Good post Lalaith! I hope you'd had time to contribute like that earlier. :)

As far as now I've moved Lalaith quite a long way down in my list of suspicion and at least at this hour would strongly advise not to vote her toDay but to possibly pay heed to some of her points.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod - How do you expect me to react to accusations that are more insulting than useful?I'm very sorry if you took them that way as that was in no way my intention. I do apologise in that case.

But I think that in general the little exercise cleared at least my thoughts a bit - although not even nearly so much I hoped as people other than you yhree seemed to not post back then...

[the guy who be short]

I can't see any special suspiciousness in the fact that in the last moments of the Day people need to consider their votes also from the viewpoint of who can actually be lynched.I think it's suspicious if it happens early on.

I would be quite ready to vote him out just as a matter of principle. But I'm not sure that we can afford that as it will be somewhat totally random vote and there are still enough innocents to make the probabilities pretty bad for such a check. Here I disagree with tgwbs again and think he's up to no good...Why? Gil has as much chance as any of us of being a wolf. As I said, I think at least two of the wolves are hiding among the quiet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, my suspicions concerning Lal were based largely on relatively frequent posting without saying much and seemingly safe voting decisions (with the exception of that Brinniel vote, which was cast in the general flurry of confusion). My review of her posts has not changed that impression.

She has now added a bit more substance, and I find myself disagreeing with Nogrod's assessment.

She has explained her voting tactics, by reference to preferring to vote to save than to vote to lynch. I understand the point, but it does seem to me that this is more likely to be the adopted strategy of a Faithful than an innocent. I know Lalaith to be an astute player and I believe that, when innocent, her “hunches” over who might be guilty are often better than she is now claiming credit for.

My uneasiness about him, I've realised, is that I get a constant feeling from his posts that he's trying to stitch people up rather than genuinely analyse to discover the truth, as a smart innocent should. I could say the same about you with this comment, and some of your others in that post about me. If you think that analysing what people have said and how they have voted, and outlining my consequential thoughts, is “stitching up”, then you will no doubt continue to “feel uneasy” about me, as that is what I intend to continue doing.

There was the business of suspecting people who had not voted for Roa, and then suddenly suspecting people who did, even more. Did you deliberately overlook my explanation of this point? Yes, I do suspect those who did not vote for Roa, as I do not think it in the village’s interests to have done so. But I find it inconceivable that there was not at least one Faithful among the Roa voters.

And then his top suspects always seem to be innocents.
This is a poor point indeed. Given that we have not yet caught a Faithful, most of the village’s top suspects in previous Days have been innocents. I had thought better of you than to make such a point, even as a Faithful, Lal.

Do you really think I would be such a crass Faithful as that?I don’t think you a crass Faithful at all. I think you a very tricksy one. But I do not discount the possibility that tricksy Faithfuls will have defended each other, either in a genuine attempt to draw away suspicion, or as a “double bluff”.

Thankfully, you have made my mind up for me.

++LALAITH

[Kitanna]

Kitanna - I don't understand your analysis of Mith. You think she voted to save an innocent rune, yet you find her more suspicious than Lommy and Lalaith?

Here's the thing I think an innocent Mith and a faithful Mith are just as likely to try to save innocent Rune. Also I feel slightly more confident in Mith working alone, than Lommy and Lalaith working together. But I've been looking back on Mith from other days and I'm starting to alleviate some of my suspicions of her.
I have to vote soon and I have four people I'd like to vote for, but no idea which one I'll actually vote for.

[Mithalwen]

well I have suspected from the beginning so unless something drastic happens... and to minimise another last minute muddle

++LALAITH

[Gil-Galad]

Just want to add, if i get killed off by the faithfuls, i would look at TGWBs mainly because in his last statement:

Why? Gil has as much chance as any of us of being a wolf. As I said, I think at least two of the wolves are hiding among the quiet.

trying to shift it to somebody else? it is a good tactic to bring somebody else up that has not been pre-determined as where their loyalties lie, but my vote still stands on you because this is trying to get the spotlight off of you.

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Lalaith
And then his top suspects always seem to be innocents.

This is a poor point indeed. Given that we have not yet caught a Faithful, most of the village’s top suspects in previous Days have been innocents. I had thought better of you than to make such a point, even as a Faithful, Lal.

Ah, but none of my suspects have been tried at the lynch yet. Your top suspects on the other hand, often do end up lynched. That is what makes you so dashed dangerous, Saucie.

[Mithalwen]

Here's the thing I think an innocent Mith and a faithful Mith are just as likely to try to save innocent Rune. Also I feel slightly more confident in Mith working alone, than Lommy and Lalaith working together. But I've been looking back on Mith from other days and I'm starting to alleviate some of my suspicions of her.
.

Well I am glad of that but I don't see why. I wanted to lynch Lalaith as I have done more or less since the start. When that seemed impossible, I chose to make my vote count and vote for someone who seemed a bit suspicious than for someon who seemed unsuspicious. I said that at the time.

[Kitanna]

I have skimmed as much as I could. And I remain lost. I hesitate to vote for Lommy and Mith today. I'd like to get a better look at them before actually voting for them. I'm not sure where to go with the other two. I could go with my original suspect of the day, Hookbill, or I could just jump on Lalaith like others have already done.
I don't find one more suspicious than the other.

++ Lalaith

I'm going to listen to my gut. I can hold off on Hookbill for a day.

Edit: cross-posted with Lalaith, Mith, and Gil

[Kath]

I'm sorry guys but I have literally 10 minutes to post toDay. House-hunting has kept me very occupied and I'm off to look at another one at half past so as you can see, I'm in something of a rush.

I'm not entirely sure where this sudden attack on Lalaith has come from. There was that argument between her and Sauce that had the both of them accusing the other of doing the same thing. I actually wonder if this is a wolf on wolf ploy. The wolves still have full ranks, if Sauce and Lalaith are both wolves a Sauce-led bandwaggon on Lalaith might, in future Days, save him from the noose.

Before her last post I was finding Kitanna pretty innocent looking, but when deciding who to vote for (Lalaith or Hookbill) she first says she doesn't suspect one more than the other but then says she will go with her gut and vote Lalaith. Seems a bit contradictory to me.

The strange thing is, the more Nogrod rails against people the more I think them innocent. In fact if Noggie wasn't a known innocent it would be him I would want to lynch! He reminds me far too much of me as a wolf, picking out little comments and making a huge deal out of them.

However, to some extent that same logic applies to TGWBS. He has a presence here and has certainly looked helpful with his analyses and constant maths, but the latter does not really offer information and we know the former can be mislreading.

Sauce is worrying me a little, he's twisting words. I can't see that Durelin really defended him at all, indeed she specifically said that she wasn't. She was arguing with Noggie but then, right now, who doesn't want to? :rolleyes:

Argh, that's it, time's up.

++SAUCE

I'm especially loathe to go with any of my suspicions from yesterDay since two of them ended up being innocent, and right now from what I've read he looks the most suspicious to me.

[Lalaith]

Oh, yes, I meant to highlight one of the things that worried me about Kath's post 376.

This: TGWBS - I'm barely going to comment. Right now I find him unbelievably suspicious but I strongly suspect that that is due to a large difference in playing style and old history. So I'm going to ignore him until I can look at him with fresh eyes.

Followed by this:
No idea yet:
Lalaith
TGWBS

I may have misconstrued the first comment (the bolding is mine) - Kath, could you elucidate?

[Mithalwen]

I am still not convinced that Sauce is innocent .... I think they both could be wolves .... we can only lynch one at a time....... :D

[Kath]

Ooh just in time there Lalaith.

So I'm going to ignore him until I can look at him with fresh eyes.
Is the reason he was in the no idea list. I decided not to pass any judgement on him yesterDay.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ah, but none of my suspects have been tried at the lynch yet.So you didn't suspect Brinniel when you voted for her then?

Your top suspects on the other hand, often do end up lynched. That is what makes you so dashed dangerous, Saucie.Actually, only one of those whom I have voted for was lynched. And that was the Cobbler. My other main suspects who have turned out innocent were killed by the Faithfuls. And I am far from being the only one whose suspects have turned out innocent. Which doesn't surprise me at all. It's pretty standard.

Here's a list of those who have cast a final vote for known innocents:

Manwe 1
Lommy 2
SpM 2
TGWBS 2
Kitanna 1
Durelin 2
Kath 1
Lalaith 1
Legate 1
Mithalwen 1
Nogrod 1

And here's a list of those who have cast a final vote for a know innocent who was lynched:

Lommy 1
TGWBS 1
Kitanna 1
Durelin 1
Lalaith 1
Legate 1
Mithalwen 1

So, I am not sure what your point is here.

Actually, it occurs to me that those who have largely managed to avoid voting for those who have turned out innocent may well be the one's to watch. For now, my vote stands, but I am going to look into that.

[Lalaith]

Brinniel was not one of my top suspects, no. YOu can check my suspect list of yesterday to confirm this. As I have explained, both at the time, and subsequently, she was more suspicious to me than Rune who I felt was innocent and wanted to save.
You on the other hand have three times categorically stated that you were "sure" that innocents were Faithfuls. First with Rikae and Noggie, then with Rune and Brinniel and now - as everyone will know if you succeed in getting me lynched - with me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Brinniel was not one of my top suspects, no.I know. I was responding to this:

Ah, but none of my suspects have been tried at the lynch yet.You expressed suspicion of her. You voted for her on that basis, even though she was not one of your top suspects. And she was lynched.

You on the other hand have three times categorically stated that you were "sure" that innocents were Faithfuls. First with Rikae and Noggie, then with Rune and Brinniel ... :eek:

I never said that I was "sure" that they were Faithfuls. I said that they were uppermost in my suspicions. Of them, I felt most strongly about Rune.

I am, however, becoming more convinced about you with every post.

[Lalaith]

Pants on fire, Saucie:

I am fairly sure that one of these two is a Faithful

[The Saucepan Man]

Yes, I am aware that I said that. It's hardly the same as "categorically" stating that I was "sure" they were Faithfuls. :rolleyes:

Brinniel's subsequent contributions lessened my suspicions of her. Hence my switch to Rune, who looked the more suspicious to me.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been considering further my lists of votes for known innocents. I remain wary of those who have managed to avoid doing so, namely Hookbill and Gil-Galad (although Gil's only non-"no vote" before toDay was for me). I'm going to bear it in mind, although I am still not sure whether Manwe is still with us. If not, it will be clear whether Hookbill has been voting for an innocent or a Faithful toMorrow.

I'm not sure if there's much more to read from those lists. Everyone else seems to have been rather consistent in voting for know innocents. :rolleyes:

[Lalaith]

Pshaw. Quibbling with semantics.

Anyway, this squabble feels like a distraction to me.

I am not given to categoric statements of guilt but I am very suspicious of Saucepanman, guy and Durelin, and I will vote for one of them depending on where the votes are going.
This may sound suspiciously self-serving - but I don't want to die. If the numbers were less dangerous, it might be beneficial for the village if I were lynched - the revelation of my innocence would usefully implicate a lot of people. (Eg If there's any wolf-on-wolf voting going on right now, I would guess it might be Kath on Saucie)
But given that the numbers are against us innocents, we really need to get a wolf today.

[Nogrod]

Oh my!

What's going on? Where did this Lalaith bandwaggon come from? Well, from SPaM I see...

I don't hold it impossible that you're right about it Saucie, but I wouldn't put it past you to finally make a Faithful-on-Faithful either. But then again you can't be blamed about others jumping on your train...

This is somewhat fishy indeed. Mith monomaniacally being after Lalaith from Day1 is quite weird as well. Who could do that but a Faithful who wishes to clear her footsteps?

I'm still against voting for Gil because he's a shot in the dark and this is one of the last Days we innocents have something like a clear margin to turn the vote right. Next Day, if we get it wrong now - it's only 7/4 and the Faithfuls will be twisting everything much more successfully.