WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Nogrod]

Year 1429 Shire reckoning.

The eve of the tenth anniversary of the Battle of Bywater.


The hobbits had enjoyed years of plenty ever since the Travellers had returned and the Shire had been scoured. The Shire had become once again what it had always been. There was now even something for a visitor from far away to come and marvel in awe: the only mallorn between the sea and the mountains stood at the Party Field already strong and proud even if it was quite a youngster as trees go.

All the evil that Sauron had created and nurtured had been washed away from Middle-Earth, the last of it exactly here in the Shire with the death of Saruman the fallen wizard. The evil magic had disappeared and only the lesser evil of men – that which could be explained rather as the absence of goodness than pure evil itself - remained.

Or was it so?

Well, not exactly...

Saruman thought he knew what he was talking before his violent death in front of the Bag End but Frodo was right in claiming that his powers had been stripped away from him. But that was not the whole story.

Gandalf did possess the authority and the strength to strip Saruman from his powers at the ruins of Isengard but even he couldn’t undo all the evil planted in to the soul of Saruman by Sauron at the height of his powers. Small shards of evil magic were indeed left and when Saruman’s soul gathered as a grey mist about his body and was finally blown away four little breaths of the original evil of Sauron remained and immediately took new hosts.

They were small bits of evil, remnants of a far more powerful Gaur-spell harboured and hosted by Saruman. It had been the plan of Sauron that if his enemy would manage to overpower Saruman his violent death would create an army of mighty werewolves that drew power from Saruman’s soul and Sauron’s own magic, taking as a matter the body of Saruman. But as Sauron had been defeated and Saruman had waned the little evil spirits were not powerful enough to form anything on their own. So they needed bodies for their malice. And there were plenty of hobbits around for them to choose.

It took ten years for them to grow and to overcome their hosts.

The night of the eve of the Battle of Bywater draw closer.

[Nogrod]

Dramatis personae:

Werewolves (4):
Each Night they choose a villager to kill. The werewolves may PM with each other during the Night phases. No PMing during the Day. One of the werewolves must PM the kill to me, preferably one hour before the deadline at least, so that the narration can be in time. The werewolves win when there are as many werewolves left as there are villagers – then they are just happy to devour the remaining villagers.

Seer (1):
Each Night chooses a person to dream of. The person’s role will be revealed to the seer. The seer PMs her/his dream choices to me each night. The seer is on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werewolves are defeated.

Ranger (1):
Each Night the ranger chooses a person to protect. The chosen person can’t be killed by the werewolves that Night. The ranger plays on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werewolves are defeated. The ranger can’t pick the same person to protect for two Nights in a row and cannot protect her/himself.

Ordinary Shirefolk (13):
Have the task of finding out the identities of the werewolves and lynching them. The ordinary Shirefolk win if the werewolves are defeated.



Miscellaneous Rules:

- The Days and the Nights last 24 hours.

- The deadline is 9 PM GMT.

- The roles will be revealed upon death.

- A double-lynch will take place when two persons have gained the same highest number of votes. Logically this makes it possible to also perform a triple-lynch or whatever number of lynchings on any given Day. It’s the duty of the Shirefolk to look after the reasonableness of the number of lynches.

- There are no retractable votes, so once you’ve voted, you can’t change it.

- There will be no clues about the identities of the players in the narrations. All unkonwn persons are referred to as a he in the narrations because that’s the traditional way of referring to an unknown (so no anti-feminist agenda here).

- The roles will be dealt with the cards and cards only so they are purely random.

- The dead players can’t post on the thread.

- No player can use PMs to verify anything they say.

- Editing is only allowed to correct spelling/grammar mistakes, to go back and bold/italicize something etc. or to mark cross-posts, so it’s not for changing the content of one’s posts.

- All players must be in the Invisible Mode.

- Players are forbidden to talk to each other about the game anywhere else but on the game thread. (And admin thread for off-game announcements.) Werewolves of course, make an exception.

- Absences etc. should be announced in the admin thread, which I hope all the players would check frequently.

- Players who fail to post or vote in two Days in a row will be removed from the game by modfire.

- The votes should be cast as follows:

++ Nogrod

(on a separate line, bolded, ++ in the beginning)


~*~

Players (19):

Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael - Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Nerwen - Nerwen Hornblower
Valier - Vallen FurryFoot
Kath - Kath Woodyend
Rikae - Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin - Shasta of the River
Kuruharan - Kuru Shrewthwacker

~*~

Please don’t post anything on this thread before Day1 starts. If you have something to say concerning the game, post it in the admin thread.

Night1 will start on November 28th, on 9pm GMT. The roles will be given out before that.

[Nogrod]

The Shire had been buzzing like a beehive all the day as the preparations for the tenth anniversary of the Battle of Bywater were taking place. There was no idle Baggins, Sackville-Baggins, Furryface, Proudfoot, Sandyman, Greenholm, Harrybelly, Briarpatch, Burrows, Shortbrush, Twofoot, Greenhand, Hornblower, Furryfoot, Woodyend, Took, River or a Shrewthwacker to be seen. Everyone was mending, bending, lending, repairing, faring, painting, hammering, screwing, carrying, following, crafting, planning, scanning, ramming, packing, folding, unfolding, whistling or just plain looking busy.

It would be a real party even on the Hobbit scale for it was a party commemorating the decennary of the freeing of the Shire or as it was called in the Red Book of Westmarch “The scouring of the Shire”.

All the pipeweed and ale that could be gathered from around the Shire had been stored to the newly renovated Green Dragon for the festivities and the few smaller fireworks by Gandalf found from a drawer in the Bag End were ready at the Party Field right beside the great mallorn. The flags had been hoisted and the festival stages put up. The stony roads had been polished and the grass cut, every garden was in a top shape and every window was cleaned. The mathoms were brought up from the cellars...

In the end the hobbits went to sleep waiting eagerly for the morning. So eagerly they waited for the festivities that many of them didn’t manage to fall asleep at first. But it was not only eagerness towards the jubilations that kept some of the hobbits awake...

Curious things were on the air.


~*~


The air was heavy to breathe and the darkness felt too animated even if it was basically quiet save the chirping of the crickets. A hobbit changed sides restlessly in his bed turning the sweat-stained pillow over.

Why can’t I just sleep?

The full moon stared through the window making the shadows stronger. The hobbit could see the room when he slightly opened his eyes. Everything seemed soft and fuzzy but at the same time all the things apeared to be more vivid. Like all the things in the moonlit room were dim and bright at the same time and those in the dark shadows were full of colour. It was a weird sight. And then there was the odd feeling all around his body.

What is this tingling? What’s going on?

The hobbit felt itchy and scratchy all over and finally gave in to his desire.

I have to scratch my back...

There his hand met the thick pelage.

The ex-hobbit rose up to sit in his bed shaking all over.

What is this?

Then he heard the inner voice calling him.

And he rose up.

After he had marvelled himself from the moonlit mirror for a moment he headed to the door and stepped outside silently as a shadow. He’d need to meet some others. The voice in his head told him so and that was what he had to do. That was what he now wished to do. That was now what he was.

So he was not the only one who had this kind of an experience that night.

They all met beside the mallorn when the moonlight was dimmed by the clouds.


~*~


A gentle breeze ran through Hobbitton. The four werewolves who had gathered around the mallorn sensed it clearly and shivered. That was a bad omen to them.

---
A hobbit in a cosy hobbithole stood up violently from his bed and hardly managed not to scream. There had been something in the room. Or was it a thing at all? It had been an eerie presence which had disturbed him when he had just been falling asleep... There was something terrible in the Shire. He knew that now. Something evil. But the breeze was not evil.

He had been just thinking about a certain neighbour at the time and now he saw clearly. Like he was seeing through the mind of that other Hobbit. He laid back down slowly wondering what this all was about.

---
Another hobbit was deep in sleep when he awoke to the faint breeze. He felt something calling him, calling him to arm himself and if in need to call for the sky to help him. But it was not this night... not this night.

He was totally baffled. And as it felt futile to try and sleep anymore with all the questions going to and fro in his mind he rose up and made himself a cup of tea to think and rethink what was going on.


~*~

Night1 has fallen.

Wolves feel free to get your team working. Seer let me know your choice.
Others, sleep well until the morning...

See you in 24 hours!

[Nogrod]

The four werewolves greeted each other by grinning. They were in good spirits as they were finally free after the long years of imprisonment. They started walking slowly to the general direction of the Green Dragon looking for a suitable hobbithole to pick.

”Evil rules, brothers!”, said the Shard smiling cunningly as he hopped along the stonepath leading the bunch.

”Yeah, might makes right!”, added the Flame and winked his eye to the two others.

”Hey, aren’t we supposed to be the evil ones? So how can we make something right?”, asked the Breath in confusion.

”You mean... is our aim to do good then?”, asked the Drop not quite sure whether he had caught the point of what had been said.

”Of course not! Now drop it!”, snapped the Shard.

”C'mon, be fair brother”, defended the Drop while the others chuckled.

”That’s a good question. Can it be thought that an evil one could be fair? Or that he should?” the Breath asked the Drop giving him his widest grin.

”Wouldn’t it be ridiculous indeed if we all felt bad because we’re baddies?” continued the Flame trying to keep the discussion on track.

”Yeah, it kind of makes one wonder whether something’s wrong if you feel bad after killing a lousy hobbit...” the Breath thought out aloud.

”But we should do the wrong thing, right? So if we feel good when we do bad things that’s right. Otherwise we would be doing wrong – if we felt bad I mean. Simple as that.”, said the Shard now clearly annoyed.

”So which one do you mean exactly? You’re contradicting yourself... wrong is right... good is bad...”, murmured the Drop sounding a bit offended.

”Okay. Let me think this Shard. If something you do is right then it can’t be wrong at the same time. And now you say that if we feel good when we do bad things and that’s right. But if that’s the right thing to do then it follows that we shouldn’t do it because evil persons are wrong-doers”, continued the Flame trying to figure out himself at the same time what it exactly meant he was saying.

”Let’s drop this futile discussion. We have things to do!”, the Shard remainded.

”Yeah, let’s play football with someone. I’m quite good at it”, Said the Breath optimistically.

”Now don’t you start it again!”, snapped the Drop.

~*~

The werewolves reached Noggie Boffin’s hobbithole and dragged the poor hobbit out. The hobbit was frozen from panic.

”Catch the pass!”, shouted the Breath as he cut Noggie’s head with one sharp move of his claws and volleyed the falling skull before it reached the ground.

”I’ll take it, I’ll take it!”, yelled the Shard as he backstepped for a perfect header.

”This torso would make a decent goalie as hobbits go. I’ll place it to the doorway.”, the Drop explained as he settled Noggie’s headless body in the middle of the bloodstained doorway.

“Let’s see who scores!”, the Breath put in before he received the Shard’s header with his chest and passed it to the Flame with his knee.

”Watch out!”, called the flame who caught the Breath’s pass and hammered the head in from the open door with a blasting shot that blew the “goalie” with it deep inside the hobbithole.

”Gooooool!”, yelled the Breath.

”No rebounds for the defence!”, chuckled the Shard.

”Funny... I feel a strong urge to take my shirt off and run around... sadly I don’t have one”, the Flame wondered mostly to himself.

”Okay lads. One more thing...”, the Drop said mysteriously and went inside the hole. He came back soon with a can of white paint.

He made a few marks on the bloodied doorway and looked at the other wolves. They all nodded to each other and then outright laughed. They retired back to their holes in good moods... or were they bad moods after all?

~*~

The hobbits woke up after a Night of uneasy sleep but their hearts were full of anticipation. It would be the Day they had all waited for. Time to have a real celebration which meant good company, a feast of food, ale and puffing the pipe; song and dance, flirting and joking and finally some fireworks.

Gathering to the Party Field to assign the last preparatory tasks for everyone they realised that Noggie Boffin was missing. The consensus was that he had overslept. It wasn’t the first time.

The hobbits walked to his house to wake him up with a bucket of very cold water. It was a shock to to see the bloody ground and a trampled garden. The door was off the hinges and this was what was written to the wall beside it.



http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/cc90/NogrodU/HandvsShire2.jpg


~*~

The dead:
Nogrod (mod) - Noggie Boffin - beheaded and played soccer with on Night1

The living:
Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael – Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Nerwen - Nerwen Hornblower
Valier - Vallen FurryFoot
Kath – Kath Woodyend
Rikae – Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin – Shasta of the River
Kuruharan -Kuru Shrewthwacker


Day1 dawns.

You are welcome to start the discussion. Have fun!

[Volo]

Urgh... That was grotesque.

What was the Ranger thinking last Night, really, drinking tea. Wasn't it mighty obvious that if the calling came then one of us would die. And wasn't it even more mightily obvious that poor ol' Noggie would be the one to die. After all, he was the wisest of us all and had the ability to see the evildoers with only one glance. Not a good start, wouldn't you think? Lazy Rangers shouldn't be allowed to live in our proud village. Drinking tea in the middle of the night, phew...

[Macalaure]

My dear Bagginses and Greenholms, and my dear Tooks and Shortbrushes, and Briarpatches, and Shrewthwackers, and Burrowses, and Hornblowers, and Greenhands, Furryfaces, Harrybellies, Woodyends, and Furryfoots...

"FurryFeet!"

Furryfeet. Also my good Sackville-Bagginses, *looks at notes* Proudfeet, Twofeet, and Rivers.

I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I trust seventy-eight percent of you half as well as you deserve.

Both of which is more than sad. And worse, four among the eighteen of you would indeed deserve even much more of my distrust!

And we shall see who those will turn out to be...

[The Might]

Indeed grotesque.
Anyway, to start the discussion off I hope that all will post as often as possible, because even though I am quite the newb here in the game I do regret not voting for quieter ones when I had the chance, since they might well be wolves.
So to make it clear, if I have no real reason to vote anyone today, I'll take whoever remains quiet.

[satansaloser2005]

Ouch. That's just....brutal. Alas poor Noggie, I didn't know him well.


Really nothing to say yet, just wanted to make my presence known to the masses ;)


I'll try to get back here later this afternoon and check the posts, get a feel for you fine people, all that.

[Valier]

'Ello all you Hobbits! What a tragic day, poor ol' Noggie....:(
I for one am not sold on your tactic my dear Might. picking off the quieter ones is always the easy answer, since they aren't around enough to defend themselves...but looking among the chatty Hobbits, is far more likely to get results. It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.

[The Might]

I doubt it...I think anyone will eventually leave some kind of a trace (ok, maybe not everyone, but probably anyone here) and so I personally see the quieter ones as more suspicious then the others.
I am also not threatening anyone. Just a wish that all will post often, so I can get a better opinion of who is who.

Somehow sorry that Nogrod is the mod, I'm going to miss the interesting information from him, but maybe Legate will help again with his analyses...then again he might be a wolf. :eek: (hopefully not)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hi kids.

Here I am, just got home, still covered in paint, and...

Nogrod? OH MY GOD! How could this have happened? Alas, woe is us, we're all going to die.

Now, on to the most important part...

Why soccer and not curling?

Who are these uncultured felons?

I say it's Kuruharan. But that's just an old grudge talking...

[Kuruharan]

*thwack*

"Squeek"

*thwack*

"Squeek"

Hmm...I see I stand accused already. *checks watch*

What took you so long? ;)

[Volo]

It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.) I will lynch a quiet one rather than a loud one if I can't form a true suspicion, which I hope won't be the case.

Speak up! While I show bad example and retreat to sleep...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hmm...I see I stand accused already. *checks watch*

What took you so long? ;)

I had a painting class until 4:50. Since I wasn't quite finished with what I was doing (http://s240.photobucket.com/albums/ff166/indiana163/?action=view&current=schrodingerscat2.jpg) (happily and haphazardly smearing Payne's Grey where Veridian and Cadmium Red used to be), I stayed late. Then I needed to trim three bowls and two cups I threw this morning in Ceramics. Then I went back to the painting studio to get my coat and clean up a bit. Then it was a ten minute walk to the campus center, where I purchased pasta and steamed vegetables because I was hungry, then it was five minutes or so until I got to my room, where I needed to briefly converse with my room mate (and steal some of her Goldfish crackers) before she left for night class. I then checked my e-mail, ate my dinner, and got here.

Since you asked.

[Brinniel]

A quiet person is not more suspicious than anyone else here. Quite often, someone who doesn't show (particularly on Day 1) has reasons that aren't necessarily sinister.

It's true, I've found at least one wolf tends to hide among the quiet ones. But usually a wolf wants to participate and be influential so they can swing the votes their way. I'd say while there may be one quiet wolf, there's mostly likely 2-3 wolves among the active participants. On Day 1, if there are several no shows, picking one of them to lynch will be a completely random guess. While I agree we cannot ignore the quiet ones, I notice that suspicions against them tend to be more accurate later in the game. So perhaps it would be smarter to hold off on attacking them until a later Day.

In my previous experience, a Day 1 lynchee usually ends being someone who says or does something wildly absurd, or it is a quiet person. Which one will it be toDay? Or can we find a middle ground for once and vote for someone completely different? As unlikely as it may be, a Fenris wolf would be nice, especially with four wolves hiding among us.

[Kuruharan]

At the moment I'm inclined to agree with Brinniel about being uncomfortable with the arbitrary nature of picking out and lynching quiet ones. Seems like an easy way for the wolves to thin out the ranks without notice.

Course, on the other hand...same thing could be said about lynching loud ones.

And I always reserve the right to change my mind with little to no provocation.

[Meneltarmacil]

I agree with Brinniel on the "one quiet wolf" idea to a certain extent. However, I'd also suggest it may be more like "1 to 2 quiet wolves."

There is another high probability here, though. There have been exceptions before, but usually there tends to be one really loud Wolf who manages to confuse everyone for quite a while until they figure out who it is. Sometimes they never do, which is something I'd really like to avoid.I'd like to switch gears from my ancestors for a bit here, as most of you have probably grown tired of listening to old Grampa Furryface babbling on about "Make 'em all talk and lynch the quiet ones! Draw 'em out in the open!" While this is still good advice, I'd suggest looking at the ringleaders if bad things start happening. The loud wolf is usually the most dangerous wolf, and that's usually where you'll find him.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Kuruharan

[Kath]

I'm here. *pokes* But I'm going again. I have a thousand things (well, 8) to do tomorrow so I need to be awake! I will check in tomorrow but it'll be a little off and on. See you then.

[Nerwen]

Just a reminder that some very strange things are happening in the Shire (apart from werewolves eating our citizens). We seem to have developed time zones! Over in Bywater, for example, it's already time for second breakfast when it's still midnight in Hobbiton.

I don't know what we're coming to!

Anyway, I think we need a Day to work out who is really being quiet and who is merely lost.




Why soccer and not curling?

But why curling?

[satansaloser2005]

Because a flatiron takes so much longer, duh! :p


I'm happy to get back and see so many posts. And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)

[Valier]

I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf. It always irks me when they get by for so long. But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best. Day one is always a little irksome, having nothing to go on.

I do have to work all day tomorrow, so I will be voting at least 4 hours before the deadline. I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.

[mormegil]

*comes in peddling cheap answers*

I have the solution. Let's lynch the first person who spoke as assuredly they are the wolf. That means Volo is dead in my eyes.

Accordingly the third person is equally guilty, which means the Might is, of course, guilty.

One can easily assume that Macalaure is therefore innocent.

The other two that are guilty are likely Kath and Fea as they usualy are guilty.

Volo does give me a guilty feeling though

*glares at Volo's eyes trying to glare into his soul*

[Kuruharan]

...or maybe the first person who speaks *assuredly*...

[Nerwen]

And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)

This is indeed something to keep in mind. Mind you, the baddie in question really didn't do much to give herself away until the second last Day. Before that it looked more like she was genuinely confused.

[satansaloser2005]

Very true Nerwen. It was hard to tell whether she was a baddie or just blonde. *can't believe how lame a joke that is*



Anyway, I'm ready to lynch a werewolf. Any volunteers? :p If not I'm slightly reluctant to pick someone so quickly, seeing how no one has said anything of extreme consequence yet. Maybe Stan is a werewolf. He looks suspicious. *winks at Noggie* Meh I'll just go to bed and see what develops whilst I sleep.



By the way, my apologies if I'm not able to vote tomorrow. Presentations and assignments due and all that, so I'll try my best to sneak away and vote in between it all if possible. Just a happy little disclaimer from a tired little Hobbit.

[Rikae]

Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error.

I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish.
I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2.
That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts:

Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it.

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!!

The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him.

Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet.

Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.

Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well...

Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion!

Menel - *sigh*. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious.

Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though.

Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so.

Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish.

Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny.

Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.

At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now.

EDIT: X'd with Stan. ;)

[Nerwen]

Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.

Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here, I'm here. Had a horrible night; locked myself out of the Green Room, had to call the stage manager and the makeup assistant to let me back in, turns out someone sabotaged the keyhole, so blah.

We have five (five!) runthroughs of the show tomorrow, so don't expect me to be around too much.

All I can say for now is that to me, Rikae seems on the innocent side.

[Rikae]

Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?

You didn't. But your post in response to Sally's "So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post"-- an argument against indiscriminate votes for 'quiet ones' -- included:
"Mind you, the baddie in question really didn't do much to give herself away until the second last Day."
And therefore constitutes a (slight) push toward the "lynch the quiets" side, unless my reading comprehension ability is going.

[A Little Green]

All I can say for now is that to me, Rikae seems on the innocent side. I agree, but on the other hand I think we shouldn't trust people judging merely by one long and clever post. Good analysis anyway Rikae, I admire people who can find so much to say from such pointless discussion :D

It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.) Now you must excuse me, Volo, I didn't quite grasp that point. Could you clarify it a little?

I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf. True again. But how is it possible to keep an eye on someone who never turns up?

Why soccer and not curling? Curling would require more heads than one, I think :D

[Nerwen]

It must be! :D I was making the same point as you, Rikae, namely, that we could not have caught Naria in the first few days except by chance. That does not mean, "So let's lynch people at random until we get the right one!" I'm rather puzzled as to why you think it does.

In fact, I'm puzzled by a couple of other things you've said.

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

Why tell us this? The rest of us can hardly take it into account.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

I don't know, it seems a natural enough reaction to me. The same goes for the rest of us who posted in a hurry after this "lynch the quiet ones" thing started up.

(I notice you give all the jokers a pass, even though their posts are fairly empty of content. Why?)

I agree with you, though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment.

EDIT: X'd with A Little Green.

[Thinlómien]

Hullo all! Good to be here. Now, to the annoyance of Rikae, I'm going to continue the loud/quiet talk and add my two cents.

In the two latest games I was first a wolf and then a mod. I must say I learned something of those experiences. I was, as a mod, quite annoyed because numerous people claimed they could not say anything about Naria who was a quiet wolf. I disagreed with them and I still do. As long as someone doesn't post just one onliner post per day, there's no reason to grumble about having no clues. You can really get surprisingly much out of just a few posts (as long as they're substantial) and even if the quiet person in question is too quiet for that, you can always look at how the dead wolves treated him/her (given that there are dead wolves, of course). I know I used to complain about relatively silent people to some extent, but I hope I'll manage to play according to what I said in this post, now that I've seen the light. ;)

Another thing I learned was that I really should drop the loud & famous people from a certain pedestal I've lifted them to. I still think it's challenging & nice to play with them and it is sad to lose them early and that one should be careful about lynching them because they're great assets to the village, BUT I think my past attitude of even somewhat overlooking their suspicious behaviour based on those things I just mentioned is just a bit ridiculous. I mean, surely you shouldn't get away with anything just because you're known to be a good and helpful player?

Lastly, my tactics will probably again involve paying extra attention to those I know from RL, as wolvish as it may sound. They just seem to be the ones who manage to fool me the best.


It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.I disagree. The more you talk, the more probably you make a slip or contradict yourself (trust me, I have enough experience of both being a loudmouth and of being a hopelessly poor wolf ;)).

It's true, I've found at least one wolf tends to hide among the quiet ones. Yet that might be purely chance or mod's fault. I think the quiet wolf - loud wolf ratio is about the same as the quiet villager - loud villager ratio. Also, I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves, and if Nogrod claims to have chosen the roles at random, we hardly can divide people into "quiet people" and "loud people" and say that this and this percent of these are wolvish or something like that. I don't think classifying people to loud and quiet ones is going to help us one bit, on the contrary.

Now let's hope this discussion really starts rolling (I don't mean discussion about loud and quiet people, but discussion in general) and those who haven't had the chance to turn up, do so, and those who haven't talked so much (or so much of substance) would speak more. There's plenty of time, still...

Oh, I maybe should add a few words about who I suspect. Brinn looks a bit suspicious with her quiet wolf -arguments, since making the assumption that at least one wolf is quiet seems a bit dangerous (see what I said above). Also, I can't really phrase it, but her last statement
In my previous experience, a Day 1 lynchee usually ends being someone who says or does something wildly absurd, or it is a quiet person. Which one will it be toDay? Or can we find a middle ground for once and vote for someone completely different? As unlikely as it may be, a Fenris wolf would be nice, especially with four wolves hiding among us.feels somewhat furry to me, especially the tone of that last sentence. So far, she's the only one who has seemed even vaguely wolvish. I'm happy to repeat that fortunately there's still time, except that I must add in the same sentence that we should not think we always have tme later and because of that do nothing right now. Now that is the famous Lommy flip-flopping, isn't it? :D

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, seems that I have arrived just at the right time: something is stirring up. If I am to speak to the matter, I didn't see anything strange on Nerwen's post(s) and I'd say Rikae is making more of it than it seems. On the other hand, I don't necessarily think this must be a bad omen for Rikae: she has always been strange (sorry, Rik ;) ) and this quite fits her.
So, what quite puzzles me is that there is hardly anything that would say to me "Wolf" at least vaguely. Which is a bad omen. I know the game just started, but I am somewhat satisfied when I have at least certain outline of what's going on, and often I have that even on Day 1. This time, nothing much.
And The Might, you should not rely on what other people post as much, even though it flatters me, I may always be a wolf. Try to use your thoughts independantly.
That is, if you are not a wolf yourself. You could be.

Anyway, let's add some more rant when I'm already at it. Menel does not seem suspicious to me, whatever was said about him. Brinniel seems very genuine to me (though I know how I was mistaken not as long time ago), but her post seems sensible, not forced, thoughtful. A Little Green's post seems very, let's say, genuinely structured, and if we have a wolf in here after all, then it's a wolf who tries to behave "normally". Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others). Kuru seems strange, though I can't say how exactly. Maybe with his "ambivalent" answer to Brinniel.

I picked just some examples that left a trace in my mind. There are other ideas, but they need yet to "blossom".

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy. Few words on that coming, probably...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now Lommy's post seems the most calming I have seen here, also with the most substance. While I appreciate Rikae's activity, her list of people I don't really consider to be much helpful for us. Or: not at the moment. When we lynch a wolf, or when we lynch Rikae and learn that she was a wolf, then these views of other people can be really helpful. But this far, Lommy's post seems nice, and worth considering, it seems to give hope, though of course she might be a wolf and in that case it's a dead end track. The other post I nominate as good one, as I said, is Brinniel's. How to explain the contradictions between them is left to the good old "different villagers' personalities" thing. In fact, I like that - reminds me of "polemic inside the canon", which is quite reassuring. "Where there is not strife, there is only stagnation" (that's not a good life motto, but it works in WW very well, I believe).

So you see, this does not make too much of a conclusion, but at least something, I hope. Now I also looked back at Valier's post and let me say only that she seems a little getting close to the contradicting - herself edge. I must say I will keep an eye out and hopefully she appears yet (from what she says it seems she will).

[Brinniel]

I think the quiet wolf - loud wolf ratio is about the same as the quiet villager - loud villager ratio. Also, I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves, and if Nogrod claims to have chosen the roles at random, we hardly can divide people into "quiet people" and "loud people" and say that this and this percent of these are wolvish or something like that.
If fully agree with you on this. I'm just saying there tends to be one wolf among the silent, but it does not necessarily mean it's always this way. I think it's quite silly to vote for someone just because they are loud or quiet...we should be basing our votes on the content within their posts, not by how much they are posting. One-liners or not, we should be seeing at least one post and vote from everyone. And if not, they will eventually be modfired.

Anyways, some first impressions:

The Might's behaviour, starting with the "let's lynch a quiet person" attitude does make me a bit uneasy. Yet, I'm thinking this is more likely to be newbie behaviour than suspicious.

Rikae was the first to make a truly help and analysing post. I agree with most of what she says, so I see no reason to suspect her at this point. Lommy also seems to be sincere in her first post. I get an innocentish vibe from her...let's just hope I'm not being completely deceived here.

Nerwen is a bit defensive...but then again, she was also in the last game and turned out innocent...

I agree that Valier's two posts seem rather contradictory, but I'm not sure that's enough to form an actual suspicion. But I will be watching her closely.

I don't find anything strange about Menel (aside from his name...Lupo Furryface :p ). And I don't intend to vote for him toDay simply because I feel bad for the poor guy. :rolleyes:

Others I have not mentioned, I don't currently have enough to form an opinion on yet. I do not actually have any suspicions at this point of time, but hopefully that'll change by the time I wake up tomorrow.

[Thinlómien]

I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time. (Now that I think of it, have I ever played with Kuru actually? I'm not sure, probably not.) I have a bit similar attitude towards A Little Green, since this is her first game.

Nerwen seems slightly suspicious to me: there's something in her tone that I don't like, something that tickles my radar. This:Why tell us this? The rest of us can hardly take it into account. almost made it beep. I mean, that's a very odd comment. If we liked to do so, we could take Rikae's word for it. But more importantly, why should Rikae refrain from saying something she feels? Just because we can't consider it a serious point for Mac's innocence? Surely we get more idea where Rikae and her opinions stand, so it is valuable information to us others? And I really think people shouldn't overlook gut-feelings, they're right surprisingly often (which does not, of course, mean always :rolleyes: ). Lastly, by saying that Rikae states an opinion and I don't think you necessarily have to have a good reasoning-based case just to think someone's innocentish or suspicious.

Though, I'm not sure if the feel I get from Nerwen's latest post indicates she might be guilty or that I've picked up the old bad habit of suspecting people I disagree with again... :rolleyes: :D Neverthelesss, I'm keeping an eye on her.

EDIT: xed with Brinniel

[Nerwen]

I mean, that's a very odd comment. If we liked to do so, we could take Rikae's word for it. But more importantly, why should Rikae refrain from saying something she feels? Just because we can't consider it a serious point for Mac's innocence? Surely we get more idea where Rikae and her opinions stand, so it is valuable information to us others?

I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.

I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis. Or eventually say "Rikae and Mac were wolves and they needed an easy reason why not to supect each other". Otherwise, I did not notice the "rule" you mention to be as apparent. I personally thought about that as well, but sally does that (already behaved like that the game before) and f.ex. Kath appears only to say she will be back later - now what kind of playing is that, really? - but one has to understand that. Also, this is the first day (to quote the refrain once more) and there was not much to speak of if they didn't have that much time.

[Volo]

Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error...
You're forgetting that the highly analytial discussion doen't start on its own. You wouldn't have had anything to analyse if the quiet/loud discussion hadn't started before your post. I agree that the quiet/loud discussion itself rarelly leads to anything, but it does make people louder, and thence easier to analyse.

As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. I hope I said this clearly.

I agree with you on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves.


It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.)
Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.
Here's what I was trying to say:
If people are unsure of whom to lynch on Day1 and end up lynching a loud Ordo, the person most likely to be lynched on Day2 is quiet. And probably also an Ordo - like Rikae pointed out - because the quiet/loud discussion won't end on Day1 but will continue on Day2 leading to none very thought decisions. Quiet players who survive to the later Days are more safe, because there will be much more to analyse about the loud players and Day3 -> is known for analysing and not quiet/loud discussion.
That is just an assumption based on how things usually go and I'm not saying that lynching a quiet person on Day1 is a solution to everything. All players aren't sure of whom to vote on Day1 and often claim their vote random. I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts.


I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves
Except Gil-Galad. :D;) Good point though!


Legate, you make me suspect you (#33, 34) . I know you're a friendly player, but this is seems a bit too friendly, although I too would like to thank for good posts... The feeling that you're backing up others more than showing yourself is what makes me wonder. Please, would you try to say your thoughts a bit clearer.


It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too.


#36, #37: I'd trust an Innocent Rikae's gut feelings about Mac. Which isn't saying much at this point... :/


Brinniel is a question mark for now.


EDIT: Xd with Legate

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others).

Good morning.

^not substance^

I have classes from 9:10 until 12:30, so you won't see me during my morning.

^not substance^

But it's Friday, which means that you will see me after I grab lunch! How yay is that?

^still not^

Okay, time to admit: this post isn't going to have substance.

Nor will any subsequent posts today, probably.

Though I might redeem myself (insomuch as I can) as follows:

The reason my Day One posts won't have substance is because I (and I always have) subscribe to the belief that you can't learn anything from Day One until AFTER Day One.

You won't find me seriously probing posts until Day Two. After the wolves make a legitimate kill. Once there's something to go on.

There is no way to find objective evidence for somebody else's guilt in what is basically a suicide. Wolves have nothing to do with the mod's death, therefore until Day Two, they have nothing to hide. Which means that unless they're really stupid, they're not going to give us anything to go on. First day comments can often lead to accurate assumptions, but not until later. As in, stuff we say on Day One usually makes a lot more sense in retrospect.

So yeah. Today I have classes until lunch time. Since they'll be boring, I'll spend them drawing and trying to come with a decision of who is the best choice to lynch without evidence.

My choice, so you can be prepared, will probably be of a villager who has historically concerned me. Whether or not the person is guilty makes no real difference to me. I'll be voting based on my confidence in my own ability to tell now or later on whether or not they're guilty.

Shower. Breakfast. Classes. See you before Day ends.

[A Little Green]

As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. True enough. However, I don't think Rikae's post was any more suspicious than the other's posts have been. I mean, just anything can be called wolf-ish behaviour.

What comes to the quiet/loud -discussion, I fail to see it as anything but pointless. :)

Because of the continuous accusations on Valier, I read through her post again. Nothing too suspicious there, except maybe for this a little unnerving phrase: But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best. If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

Wolves have nothing to do with the mod's death, therefore until Day Two, they have nothing to hide. Which means that unless they're really stupid, they're not going to give us anything to go on. So true, so true. We'd need a wolf to practically slip what he is to get any proper accusations toDay.

Therefore, as for my suspicions, I cannot say anything just yet.

[Volo]

Which means that unless they're really stupid, they're not going to give us anything to go on.And it would work too if all the Innocents kept quiet. The more we talk, the more the Wolves have to talk not to show out - and that way they do give us substance to read on later Days. No, Fea, I don't agree with you - many players have "Fenris Wolf" in their sigs and that itself proves that Day1s are not for outright assuming that random votes (or based on anything that they really shouldn't be based, such as things that don't have anything to do with this current game) are the best solution.

[Nerwen]

I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis.

Point taken. I guess I was being over-critical.

For the rest of it, though... well, I do think some of her comments show a bit of a double-standard. For instance, she finds my first post to be somewhat suspicious because all I did was remind everyone to consider the timezone issue before they start lynching people for being too quiet. In her view, there's not enough substance there– and yet she has no problem with people who have done nothing at all but joke.

Understand that I'm criticizing her arguments on grounds of inconsistency, not making an accusation.

EDIT: X'd with Volo and A Little Green.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Fea: Good! That was exactly what I wanted to hear from you. Thank you. You see, I know there is no concrete evidence on Day 1, but at least you now let us get an image of how you think. A person who appears and says "Hello" does not say anything about herself, and a person who says "I had bread for breakfast, then a cup of tea, then I used a bus to get to work, then I was there two hours, then I returned but not by bus but my friend's car whom I met and we were talking about Bill Hailey all the way" does say many things about herself, but not things that are valid for WW.

Volo: I don't exactly know what you would imagine under me posting "my thoughts a little bit clearer". I said everything I wanted and these were my opinions. I don't know what you mean by "backing up other players", but I would consider saying "I agree with this one. I agree with that one." a serious problem - but that's obviously not what I was doing. I said what I wanted and see no problem with it. If you do, please explain more concretely what would you like to see from me.

EDIT: x-ed since Little Green's post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen, apology accepted, but why do you seem now suddenly all too self-critical? Or, self-defensive? Don't overdo it, or I may start to suspect you!

Note to Volo's post - for Fea - see? Now this is what I meant - if you post something that has substance, people may start to react to you. Not that it always is a good thing, but that's for another debate :D

If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.
*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

[Volo]

Volo: I don't exactly know what you would imagine under me posting "my thoughts a little bit clearer". I said everything I wanted and these were my opinions. I don't know what you mean by "backing up other players", but I would consider saying "I agree with this one. I agree with that one." a serious problem - but that's obviously not what I was doing. I said what I wanted and see no problem with it. If you do, please explain more concretely what would you like to see from me.
I started my thoughts about you a bit too harshly - saying that I suspect you more than others was a bit unfair. It just bothered me that you had no clear thoghts on anybody, everybody you mentioned going both ways (flip-flopping?). But like Fea said - and I agree with her about this - there are no hard facts to base your thoughts on. I forgot that provoking you and your guts doesn't work...

Then again, in your last post you say it again - "Good! That was exactly what I wanted to hear from you. Thank you.", well what do you think of it if it's good enough to think about?


EDIT: Xd with Legate.

[Thinlómien]

First off, hats off to Volo. (Yes, there were enough "off"'s. :D) I think he's making the most sense this far.

I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts.I think they should be prohibited by a law. :p I'm not sure if it's very reasonable, but I always suspect random-voters. *eyes fellow players suspiciously*

Fea is succeeding in making me laugh. On other things, I'm not sure. While she does have a point about Day1s and is straightforwardly acting on it, I must say I disagree with her style. I can't really call her attitude suspicious (even though I could call it pessimistic fatalism). Yes, Day1s are most useful afterwards, so please don't disinclude from the people whose posts can be analysed later by saying only bantery stuff on Day1. I don't, however, mean that you, Fea, are doing it, since your last post was definitely substantial, if not helpful.

If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.I don't find anything particularly suspicious with that. I do it quite often regardless of my role.

So true, so true. We'd need a wolf to practically slip what he is to get any proper accusations toDay. Now this makes me a bit worried. I don't know what should I think of A Little Green. She's very quick to agree, especially if someone says something is useless and keeps herself calling things pointless. Surely an innocent person would be a bit more... well, eager to take the challenge and find the wolves and wouldn't mind dicussing. She seems somewhat too distant and fatalistic for me to be comfortable about her...

Now, I know I said there's nothing partuicularly suspicious in Fea's attitude but that Little Green (how should be your name be shortened, by the way? ALG sounds somewhat silly...) seems suspicious to me. The differences are that Fea was the first one to start that useless-stuff and ALG just followed and while Fea's attitude suits her as a person and seems completely characteristic, ALG's attitude seems a little feigned and forced.

Anyway, as ALG is a newbie, I'm not too sure my points are valid. Everybody knows newbies agree with and are affected by charismatic and intelligent more experienced players. Her newbieness might also be a clue why some of her points seem a bit odd to me - after all, she does not know this game as well as I do. (By which I don't mean that my points would be any more valid in general or I'd be any smarter, just that I have - or I should have - more idea about how the game usually goes.)

edit: xed with a few posts

[Aganzir]

Wonderful to see there's been this much discussion and not only Day 1 banter.

I can understand why especially those for whom the previous game was their first want to lynch quiet ones, but it always makes my alarm ring when a relatively vocal player says that there probably are wolves hiding among the quiet. If the roles were given randomly, I think that's not a valid argument.

We had a discussion about lynching the quiet ones with Lommy some weeks ago, and I agree with her about it being possible to catch a quiet wolf by seeing how other wolves (and everybody else) treat them. With four wolves in the village, I dare say it's not that difficult to get one by pure luck.

But everyone has their own style to play, and it's unfair to always lynch the quiet ones "just to make it sure". And really, what does it matter whether one loses to a quiet or a vocal player? It's so easy to say "I lost because the one who won played unfairly, ie. was so silent I didn't realise he was a wolf". Maybe one should pay extra attention to the quiet ones if he thinks it would be more embarrassing to lose to one.
Sorry if I sound aggressive, I certainly don't mean to. I just think one shouldn't blame the wolf and his way of playing if one doesn't manage to catch him.

I haven't had time to form opinions about everybody, but here are some thoughts.

Volo: There was very little to go on in his first posts, but the last one (#39) strikes me as quite genuine.

Brinniel: I found her first post somehow empty. The second post makes me feel much better though.

Nerwen: A good and reasonable player, even with only one game behind her. I think Rikae had a good point about her saying little, but then again, it's just Day 1. The thing that makes me a little uncertain is how she started behaving after Rikae pointed out something slightly suspicious in her posts. It looks like she tries to get Rikae use her energy in defending & explaining herself, rather than going on suspecting Nerwen. See post #31.

Rikae: I definitely agree with her that even Day 1 can be spent usefully, and mostly agree about everything else she said. She's been quite sensible, and at the moment I don't feel like lynching her.

A Little Greenie: Even though she's a newbie, don't underestimate her. I've played mafia with her several times, and every time she's guilty she fools me completely. I'm definitely going to watch you extra-carefully this time. ;)

Lommy: I guess I'm able (at least I should be, given how long we've known each other) to read her quite well, and this far there's been nothing that should make me feel she's a wolf.

Legate and Menel both look quite genuine.

I somewhat disagree with Feanor on what she said about Day 1. The wolves always have something to hide: that they've received a pm that says they're wolves. They know they're guilty even before they've actually killed anyone, and that can sometimes be seen in their behaviour.

I have not yet a clear opinion about the others.

edit: xed since Greenie

[Volo]

Nerwen, apology accepted, but why do you seem now suddenly all too self-critical? Or, self-defensive? Don't overdo it, or I may start to suspect you!
Point taken. I guess I was being over-critical.
I'm not siding with Nerwen now, but that's also what I felt like saying after you stared at me. Now is Legate just right and has water-proof points or does he hold the voice of Saruman once again?

Note to Volo's post - for Fea - see? Now this is what I meant - if you post something that has substance, people may start to react to you. Not that it always is a good thing, but that's for another debate :DI guess this would answer my question.

*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*Well, not good enough as it was spotted... Now this makes me want to lean to lynching Valier and finding out what she is. I'll try to take the feeling critically.


EDIT: Xd with Lommy and Aganzir.

[Macalaure]

Well, well...

Shall we lynch a quiet one, a loud one, a weird one, or an actually suspicious one? I'm not going to touch the question due to its obviousness, I'd just like to point out that those who speak on this matter with good Hobbit sense do not look less suspicious to me because of it. It's too easy for a wolf to appear innocent by speaking sense in irrelevant matters.


Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

Not kosher indeed. You would have to be able to read me exceptionally well in order to catch any vibes from those few lines of exclusive joking. Sure, it's an opinion and therefore perfectly okay to be stated (I don't see Nerwen's objection at all), but I don't see how you could have gotten there.

Which brings me to Nerwen. I get the feeling that she is much more tense than she was in her first game. What she says isn't necessarily suspicious, but her tone makes me uneasy.

Of course, Rikae's analysis of people is not cutting edge - how could it be? Obviously, it was only intended to get the ball rolling - and it was successful with it. I don't see why Legate takes an issue with it in #34.

Volo looks suspicious to me. First he criticises Rikae along the lines Legate did, but much stronger, then he agrees with her and conveniently jumps on the Valier-bandwaggon (#39).

I disagree with Fea's statement that we won't catch a wolf today unless s/he's stupid. The sharper we look, the less stupid a wolf has to be in order to be caught. Still, her statement at least is genuine - other than the ones of those who agreed with her. *coughalittlegreenandvolocough*

(edit: crossed with Lommy, Aganzir, and Volo)

[Kath]

Here I am again, as I promised. The earlier post seemed to be giving people trouble. I didn't have time to post anything substantial but I wanted to make sure I got notifications from the thread so I could keep up a bit easier so I just posted those few words.

Couple of things have grabbed my attention so far. Nerwen and Rikae's little argument seems to be a bit central. Nerwen, I can't see that there's anything wrong with Rikae offering her opinion on Mac. Ok, so it's based on outside knowledge but then technically any impressions we carry over from past games are outside knowledge as well. For example, the one person I can generally guess the role of is Mith, simply because I know her style quite well, and others are aware of that and sometimes (when they're not about to lynch me :rolleyes:) take that into account. I for one don't think you should be shy about offering any thoughts that might help us.

Still, I think that argument has pretty much been settled now which is good. Though it has left me with some lingering suspicion of Nerwen, who seems a little jumpy.

I'm feeling pretty ok with Rikae though, and with Lommy, who seems to be the loudmouth of the village so far, except for one comment:

Everybody knows newbies agree with and are affected by charismatic and intelligent more experienced players.
I'm not sure this can really be used as an excuse for suspicious behaviour from a newbie. Just look at the last game with Nerwen especially having her own thoughts and not really being affected by the opinions of older players (as far as I could see anyway). I'm not saying A Little Green - hmm, just Green maybe as a shortening? - is suspicious, I can't because I haven't looked at her, but maybe she is quite aware that she can get away with hiding behind her newbie status. That I think though is a thought for Days to come, I don't want to go lynching newbies on the first Day.

Just got to say as well, little suspicious that morm's only posted the once. Phew, and there's the old rivalry dealt with. :D To be clear those who don't get this, I am kidding.

Are we still waiting on people to post? Ooh yes we are, Farael. I thought it seemed a little quiet!

Right, I'm off again for a little while. Should be back before too long.

EDIT: Cross posted with Mac.

[Nerwen]

There appear to be two schools of thought about the value of doing serious wolf-hunting on the first Day. I'm somewhere in the middle– I think it's worth analysing posts for signs of wolfishness, but also that catching one will take a large amount of luck.

(This, I admit, is based on almost no experience.)

There's also the problem that people who look for wolves too hard now can wind up looking wolfish themselves– they really don't have much to build on, so they seem to be making baseless accusations. This is one of the reasons I'm not accusing Rikae even though some of her arguments are, in my view, a bit strange. I think she's most likely just trying to work with what she's got.

EDIT: X'd with Kath, Mac and Volo.

[The Might]

lol, I again seem to have managed to get all against me thinking I'm the wolf...and this is the second time in the row.
Actually I said that because I want to avoid what I needed to do last time, vote for someone without any proof whatsoever.
Just as Feanor already said her choice will be a member she is concerned with I also wanted to explain who I'll take on the first day.

[Kuruharan]

Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating.
Rikae

Oh, thank y…wait…what?

At the moment I’m inclined to be suspicious of people who are talking about making decisions based upon arbitrary reasons rather than on what is actually happening in the game.

This is causing me to focus on The Might due to his desire to lynch people based on whether they are loud or quiet and…

Unfortunately…that’s all that I’ve got to think about right now…

More unfortunately, I’m suspicious of my suspicion because it seems too easy.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, I can't see that there's anything wrong with Rikae offering her opinion on Mac.

You're right, Kath, and you'll notice I've taken it back already. I was starting to get suspicious of Rikae anyway at that point because of her oddly contradictory arguments, and the way she seemed to be twisting my words, but I've changed my mind about her (see #52).

Besides, she got lynched the first Day last game!

[Kuruharan]

Besides, she got lynched the first Day last game!

What's that got to do with anything?

If you think she's a wolf you should vote for her regardless of other considerations.

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen, since you seem to be flip-flopping on that matter, do you suspect Rikae or not?

Nerwen's or Brinn's latter posts have given me no reason to lessen my suspicion of them. They and Greenie (I like that one for a nickname) are my main suspects ie the only people who seem even somewhat suspicious. :rolleyes:

Aganzir (seems to be reasonable and calm and arguments in an innocent way, though I can't really elaborate on that in a comprehensible manner) , Volo (makes generally the most sense) and Mac (his tone seems far more relaxed than when he's a wolf, besides his post made me laugh :D) seem innocent to me and Legate and Valier too (both are just gut-feelings and based on their normal-seeming behaviour), but to a lesser extent. Of the rest I really can't conclude much.

The Might then... now his latest post was definitely a bit odd and even slightly suspicious, but suspicious in an innocent way, if you know what I mean... :D

EDIT: xed with Kuru twice and Nerwen once

[Volo]

I disagree with Fea's statement that we won't catch a wolf today unless s/he's stupid. The sharper we look, the less stupid a wolf has to be in order to be caught. Still, her statement at least is genuine - other than the ones of those who agreed with her. *coughalittlegreenandvolocough*
Might I ask you when did I agree with her? When I said that there are no hard facts on Day1? Yes, I did agree with that, but that is all with which I agreed. I do not prefer random votes, basicly because they're unfair and because they leave no trails - only by leaving trails can the Innocents get the Wolves to leave trails as they follow behind.

Volo looks suspicious to me. First he criticises Rikae along the lines Legate did, but much stronger, then he agrees with her and conveniently jumps on the Valier-bandwaggon (#39).
Legate's talk is too subtle and it leaves an open path for him to change the meaning of his words later on, but I see nothing wrong with suspecting Rikae. I have no way of proving it, but I wrote my post about Rikae before I read Legate's and decided not to change it when I got to it.

I'm not happy with voting Valier, but I haven't found any better reasons to vote anybody else. I hope she will return before any bandwagons will take place.

[Macalaure]

Might I ask you when did I agree with her? When I said that there are no hard facts on Day1?

Exactly that. You didn't agree to everything she said, but it was in the same line. But this was only a small comment and not the reason for my suspicion about you.

I do not prefer random votes, basicly because they're unfair and because they leave no trails

And wasting a chance to lynch a wolf, even if it's not a good one, is not a reason against it?? But let's not start/keep on discussing this.

Legate's talk is too subtle and it leaves an open path for him to change the meaning of his words later on, but I see nothing wrong with suspecting Rikae.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with suspecting Rikae. I do it as well, though only very little. But I think the reason "her analysis was not helpful enough" is a bad and a suspicious reason.

I see where your suspicion of Legate comes from, but I don't share it. He doesn't strike me as a Wolf of Amon Gaur (yet).

[mormegil]

I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time. (Now that I think of it, have I ever played with Kuru actually? I'm not sure, probably not.) I have a bit similar attitude towards A Little Green, since this is her first game.

This thought here is not sound logic and will amount to trouble. I've only read to hear...too many european posters so a lot to catch up on in the morning. Anyway, it's good practice to lynch Fea on Day 1 as she generally only causes problems the later it goes. But what you said is interesting when compared to what you said previous to this.

Another thing I learned was that I really should drop the loud & famous people from a certain pedestal I've lifted them to. I still think it's challenging & nice to play with them and it is sad to lose them early and that one should be careful about lynching them because they're great assets to the village, BUT I think my past attitude of even somewhat overlooking their suspicious behaviour based on those things I just mentioned is just a bit ridiculous. I mean, surely you shouldn't get away with anything just because you're known to be a good and helpful player?

Being nice doesn't save the village. It appears you contradict yourself slightly in your thought process here.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, since you seem to be flip-flopping on that matter, do you suspect Rikae or not?

Look, I'm really not sure. I've said why.

Now I want to say this: the conversation of the last few hours is making me very uneasy. I feel that we're all being directed towards seeing certain types of behaviour as suspicious, when they're not really.

I'm not sure where this is coming from, but the intent is pretty clear: the wolves are going to be able to lynch an innocent without leaving a trace. "But X said Y, and we established that Y is what a wolf would say! It was a tragic mistake!"

I urge everyone to re-read all the posts as objectively as they can. Ignore what other people (me included) tell you is suspicious– make up your own mind, because someone is trying to make it up for you.

[Nerwen]

What's that got to do with anything?

If you think she's a wolf you should vote for her regardless of other considerations.

Of course. That was a joke!

[satansaloser2005]

The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.




That was my mistake indeed as I typed my post and forgot to hit submit, not that it matters. Just a bit of clarification. And I am being horribly unproductive. Just read my posts and am surprised people are even bothering to read them. Perhaps the next day I'll be more helpful as I'll have gotten some proper sleep.


I'm already late for class, so here's my take on who we should vote or not vote (in a general sense). I apologize in advance as it will indeed be generalized and probably largely unhelpful, but I'll give it a shot.

I'm reluctant to vote a quiet person just based on their being quiet, as I alluded to before. I'm also hesitant to vote a loud one for the same reason. If someone who is more awake than I wants to somehow unmask a wolf using their cunning and generally snazzy brain power, I'm all for it. But until then I'm thinking that we're going to be running on an educated guess, if even that. Do what you want with my two cents (except throw it at my head lol).


Gotta run! Back a couple hours before deadline to check in.

[Rikae]

To clarify my position on bantering posts:
I don't find them the least bit suspicious as the first post on day one, or as brief responses to others. Many players like to kick off Day 1 with a joke or two, and I see it as harmless, provided they join the actual discussion at some point during the day.
Theclassical "trying to look helpful while saying nothing" post, however, is another matter. The fact is, wolves do know something the rest of us don't - they know who is evil, and who is innocent. Most of the time, they're trying to avoid directing suspicion toward those they know are guilty and have someone they know is innocent lynched - but not in a way that points back to them. Therefore, an empty but vaguely helpful-looking post is often the slip that gets a wolf caught.

Now, regarding Mac - certainly you have no reason to trust my hunches now. However, in the likely event I die at some point during the game, they might help you. I certainly trust my intuition on Mac by now, as I was able to guess his role almost immediately in the last two games.

Well, now. We've heard from a few more people, and conversation seems to be taking off. I don't agree with Fea, but her pessimism seems genuine. Something about Green seemed slightly odd to me when I read her post, although I can't quite put my finger on it. The reluctance to reveal her suspicions, maybe, which doesn't seem to logically follow from the response to Fea.

A word about random votes - I agree with Lommy, they should be outlawed! A random vote does absolutely nothing to help us find wolves, and it masks the meaningless of the wolves' votes. Therefore, anyone who votes without having given some reason for suspicion, is suspicious in my eyes.

Nerwen is indeed acting very defensively, however, unlike Lommy, I seem to recall her behaving similarly in the last. I fear she may be too easy a scapegoat, actually, and the determined way Lommy pursues her is slightly worrisome.

I'm glad to see Kath has joined the discussion, and I don't see anything objectionable in her post.
It is difficult to say anything about Aganzir at this point, but I'd like to know her opinion on Valier.

I'm not sure what Legate is trying to accomplish, or what he wants. He seems to be encouraging continued discussion of generalities, and taking a dominant, teacherly, "Nogrod's apprentice" role. I particularly don't understand why it is useless for me to state my suspicions and opinions of people, but apparently quite helpful if he gives his. I suppose when Legate dies and turns out to be a wolf, those will be useful. ;)

I'm not sure who to vote for at this point. I do find Valier suspicious, and although I'd like the chance to play with her again (I think the only other game we had together was my first), there are good reasons not to vote for pretty much everyone on Day 1. What should we do, decide who's most "expendable" or who's most suspicious?
However, I'm also open to voting Nerwen, and if anyone else sees anything suspicious in Lommy or Legate, I'm listening. (With a little alliteration, no less!)

EDIT: X'd with everyone since Volo.

[Valier]

So I'm very suspicious am I? Hmmmm I don't see it. I don't think I contradicted myself, only stated my opinions, if they are a little flip-floppy it's because it's the first day and I always find it hard to get a grasp on people. Now I am sorry my time is very limited today, and if by me telling you all this is suspicious then....ha you'd be wrong, I really am busy today and I like to let people know, so that makes me wolfish? So far I am getting a werid vibe from Morm....we have well a history, Morm always suspects me, even sometimes pushes to get me killed. This time he is very quiet and unopinionated which is odd for him. Since he has not posted a reason why, I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve. I have about an hour before I gotta run, so i will be rereading everything and voting before I leave. I know my leaving and early vote may just get me lynched today, which would be too bad, since I'm innocent and really hope to kill us some baddies.

[Kuruharan]

mormegil seems to me to be talking sense.

Even though I am uncomfortable with the arbitrary "Let's be on the safe side and kill Fea"...

But I think he's right that Thinlómien's been talking a lot...and it strikes me that she may be putting up a front of being helpful while in actuality stirring up a lot of mess and confusion.

[Kath]

Alright my lovelies I have to go. I'm sorry for not being around much toDay but I have a ball to go to!

So, who to vote for? I must admit I've not had a chance to closely read through the thread since my last visit but the one person who caught my eye was:

++THE MIGHT

He said that he'd got everyone in the village thinking he was a wolf, but so far as I know people have barely mentioned him. I'm not entirely sure that a wolf would bring so much attention to himself, but there's nothing to say this isn't quite a smart double bluff. Anyway, that's it from me for toDay.

[Nerwen]

if anyone else sees anything suspicious in Lommy or Legate, I'm listening. (With a little alliteration, no less!)

Try this:

Though, I'm not sure if the feel I get from Nerwen's latest post indicates she might be guilty or that I've picked up the old bad habit of suspecting people I disagree with again... :rolleyes: :D Neverthelesss, I'm keeping an eye on her.

It is quite possible, I think to read this as a threat: "Disagree with me and I'll lynch you". It certainly made me nervous. And I'm starting to feel that Lommy is working a bit too hard at setting up a no-win situation for me. The comment I made about wolf-hunters running the risk of looking wolfish applies to her too, but even so I think she's taking it too far.

I mean, let's look at what I actually said– I said you had misinterpreted a comment I made and I criticized some of your arguments. People said part of the criticism was unfair and I agreed and backed off from it.

Yes, I was indecisive– but toDay people should be indecisive! We've really got very little to go on. And yes, I was defensive, but hey, why shouldn't I be?

I think people need to be wary of this word "defensive". It seems to be a sort of "magic word" in this game.

EDIT: X'd with Kath, Kuru and Valier.

[The Might]

Duh, you take any word way too seriously. If I say the whole village, then it doesn't mean I am talking about everyone. But as in the last time because I might seem suspicious I'm always considered to be a wolf. Then again that's just the way I post.

This vote reminds me of all voting Rikae last time just because she had voted herself, which also is quite uncommon. If you are going to always lynch people because they seem to do something out of the ordinary, then go ahead, but I think that will only make the game grow more and more boring.

It will force all players into the same old patterns of play, always taking care to not use a certain word as it might be your doom. If that's what WW is about, killing anyone that seems out of the ordinary, not necessarily guilty, then count me out of it.

I really don't care if I'll be lynched, it's this "oh look he's saying he doesn't like quiet ones in the 3rd post, let's lnych him for that, because besides him nobody seems strange" theory that I dislike.

[Valier]

Is anyone else around? I gotta run soon and if someone else has questions or something else to bring up that would be great. Right now I am leaning towards Morm....not that I have a good reason...just well a feeling. Sometimes my feelings lead me astray, but I find when in doubt it is best to listen to them. I would hate to lynch an Ordo today, but hey it happens on Day 1, and if that Ordo need be me, well then I guess that would make me a Fenris Ordo.:rolleyes: But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.

[Nerwen]

It's very late here now, or rather very early, and I have to go.

++Thinlómien, a.k.a Lommy Baggins.

Let's face it, despite all this talk of doing our best to catch a wolf the first day, nobody's acted really suspicious yet. However, she's the one I find the most worrying. I've already stated my reasons.

Of course, maybe I'm just taking things too personally.;)

Goodnight.

[A Little Green]

Hmmmm.

The Might does seem a little weird at the moment. Though I don't quite grasp the point of the "lynch the quiet ones" -attitude, his first post didn't necessarily strike me as suspicious. What comes to his latest post, however... lol, I again seem to have managed to get all against me thinking I'm the wolf...and this is the second time in the row.
Actually I said that because I want to avoid what I needed to do last time, vote for someone without any proof whatsoever.
Just as Feanor already said her choice will be a member she is concerned with I also wanted to explain who I'll take on the first day. I don't know what to think about that. His defence does look very feeble to me, but then again that makes him seem pretty innocent if you see my point.

Of Valier I am still very unsure. I'll be keeping an eye on her.

As for the others, Nerwen and Sally both look pretty innocent at the moment.

Lommy, though... She does seem very genuine, no doubt. She hasn't given me any reason for suspicion as yet. However, I'm afraid that if she is a wolf, she'll pass unnoticed. The same goes for the other loud, leader-ish and innocent-looking ones such as Rikae and in a way Legate as well. They don't look suspicious, but by gaining a sort of leader role (or at least a leader attitude) in the discussion, they might be able to hide themselves. I am not saying we should lynch all loud people, no. I am just saying that we must not forget their existence as possible wolves the way I almost did.

Of the others, I am very very unsure. I suppose I should read through the whole thread and try to look at the people as individuals. So far, I've been concentrating more on the discussion as a whole.

So true, so true. We'd need a wolf to practically slip what he is to get any proper accusations toDay. And, as everyone seems to be making such a fuss about this statement, I think I should clarify it a little. I'd like to underline the word proper. What I actually meant was that it is highly improbable that we'll find valid evidence against anyone yet.

What comes to the random votes, I'm definitely against them (whatever image I may have given). Even though we might not get any valid proof of anything, I find a vote based on poor evidence hugely better than one based on absolutely no evidence at all.

EDIT: x-ed with the seven latest posts :D

[Valier]

well I hate to have to bring in a third lynch candidate, but other than my gut today I don't have more to go on. I just haven't had the time to digest and think about what everyone has said. Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter, seeing as I should have time to think things through after rereading and give better opinions. Good luck to us all.

++ Mormegil

[mormegil]

What's that got to do with anything?

If you think she's a wolf you should vote for her regardless of other considerations.

Agreed! Far too often people look at previous games. Not always wise to do.

I see the statement was stated to be a joke later...odd

[Macalaure]

too many european posters so a lot to catch up on in the morning.Europeans: 8, Australians: 1, Americans: 10 (unless I miscounted)

Hard indeed is the lot of mormegil... :rolleyes: ;)

The fact is, wolves do know something the rest of us don't - they know who is evil, and who is innocent.
[...]
I certainly trust my intuition on Mac by now, as I was able to guess his role almost immediately in the last two games.No comment. :smokin:

Nerwen is indeed acting very defensively, however, unlike Lommy, I seem to recall her behaving similarly in the last.I don't entirely agree. She did have defensive streaks, but not as continuous as this time - on a Day One.

It seems like I'm the only one suspicious of Volo today. Maybe I'm misled, maybe everybody else is. Anyway, as there is no way he'll be lynched today, I think I'll have to look elsewhere for now. I'm going to return to him tomorrow.

I think I'll better get myself a fresh look at everybody before I vote.

[Kuruharan]

Valier is beginning to look a bit furry to me.

She seems unnecessarily defensive and then votes for Morm out of the blue on some...I'm not even sure "suspect suspicion" really adequately describes it.

Still I'm very reluctant to vote for her today. I am still uneasy about Thinlómien...

[Rikae]

I'm around.

I'm leaning toward giving Valier a chance to look guiltier, or more innocent toMorrow.. As for this thing between Lommy and Nerwen, I'm inclined to think there has to be a wolf between the two of them. There is simply too much aggression there... it doesn't seem like two innocents going at it, but rather, either a wolf trying to get an ordo lynched, or a cornered wolf fighting back in desperation.

I don't quite understand Mac's suspicion toward Volo based on Volo's suspicions of me, which (though wrong), weren't particularly wolfish looking to my eyes. I can't help but feel Mac is letting personal feelings cloud his judgement. (Sorry...)

I also don't agree with the suspicion towards The Might. He could become one of those easy Day 1 lynches, but honestly, his strangeness is more of the "not really paying attention" variety than the "wolfish" one.

[The Might]

Hmmm...I'm curious to see what will happen, so I'll go ahead and do it:

++ The Might

for being so out of the ordinary.

[Kuruharan]

Sooo...is The Might being suicidal because he's given up on himself or is this part of a cunning plan to turn people away from him.

I think its a cunning plan to turn people away from him...but I honestly can't say whether it makes him more likely to be guilty or innocent.

[Thinlómien]

But what you said is interesting when compared to what you said previous to this.Yes, I know. Believe or not, and think what you will, but I actually thought that slight contradiction when making that post but decided to say exactly what I said anyway. It would have been a very long ramble if I had commented those two statements' relation to each other. But still, they're different things, really and I do not think there's any problem with having those two opinions at the same time.

and the determined way Lommy pursues her is slightly worrisome. "Determined way I pursue her"? Could you elaborate? I don't think I've determinedly pursued anyone. I do suspect Nerwen but definitely not so much that I would start pursuing her.

But I think he's right that Thinlómien's been talking a lot...and it strikes me that she may be putting up a front of being helpful while in actuality stirring up a lot of mess and confusion.Helpful? Nice to hear that. :D Stirring up mess and confusion? I might be doing that, but not intentionally...

Kath's vote looks pretty futile even for a Day1 vote.

It is quite possible, I think to read this as a threat: "Disagree with me and I'll lynch you". It certainly made me nervous. Really? It was not meant as a threat but truth be told I don't mind that it made you nervous - especially as you decided to state your feeling. It's a little thing to get nervous of, if you're an innocent.

And I'm starting to feel that Lommy is working a bit too hard at setting up a no-win situation for me.Really, what have I said to make everybody think I'm so much after you? You happen to be the person I suspect the most but I'm no way certain of your guilt, actually on the contrary - like I've said more than once I don't have strong suspicions yet. Even though your way of reacting to being even slightly accused does look quite wolvish so maybe I do have a stronger suspect now. ;)

I don't know what to make of Nerwen's vote post, but I don't like it.

However, I'm afraid that if she is a wolf, she'll pass unnoticed. The same goes for the other loud, leader-ish and innocent-looking ones such as Rikae and in a way Legate as well. They don't look suspicious, but by gaining a sort of leader role (or at least a leader attitude) in the discussion, they might be able to hide themselves.Funny you should say that as all of us have been suspected to some extent today... more than many others, for example.

well I hate to have to bring in a third lynch candidateIf this is our list of lynch candidates, I'll be brining in a fourth one, unless I must act to save myself from lynching or to save the village from a double or triple or quadrupule (or whatever) lynch.

Now that I have got to the topic, I may probably state the obvious and remind you all that we have an unlimited amount of lynches, so we should be really careful. I don't see any reason for us to lynch more than one person on Day1.

Now I'm going to reread the whole thread and think it all through again.

edit: xed with everybody after morm

[Rikae]

Well, I think if I want Nerwen in the running, I have to do it myself, before adding a new candidate is totally out. If she turns out innocent, I'll definately be looking at Lommy as a possible wolf. As I said, I don't find The Might suspicious. I don't see any point in voting for Morm now - there just isn't enough to go on - and I think that knowing the role of Nerwen will shed more light on the Lommy question, while the opposite might not be true.

++Nerwen

EDIT: X'd with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

What is this aggression thing? You're honestly really making me confused...

Concerning his vote: TM seems unlikely wolf for doing that kind of tricks, but I don't really grasp why would he be that non-helpful and suicidal as an innocent...

edit: xed with Rikae's vote... now there's a lynch candidate I could support but it all looks too easy if you know what I mean...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, hey, wait! I can't refresh as fast as the posts appear!

Looks like the votes appear. Good that they do. Bad that I don't think they are aimed the right way. A few words to the newly appeared lynch subjects:

The Might seems a little bit fishy in general, but certainly not just because of his "I will lynch this kind of people" comment. People seem to jump at this, and only at this, constantly without, as it seems to me, taking into account other things he said. I am not saying it's not a good comment for a wolf. But TM acted similarly in the last game, and I don't think it's okay to base all the suspicion of his on this.

Lommy, as I said before, does not seem in any way wolfy to me this far. If the quarrel between her and Nerwen is a wolf-ordo fight, then maybe I would be more convinced that Nerwen is the wolf and Lommy is the ordo. Though I don't want to speculate about it already. Nerwen may be a little more defensive than normally, but who knows. Though concerning Nerwen, there is one thing I would like to mention further - wait a moment and you'll see below.

Morm. Well, funnily enough, if I had to pick a vote among the three named, I would probably pick him. But mainly because that I consider the other two less possible of being guilty than him. Maybe I am subconsciously influenced by all people saying "morm is dangerous, morm is dangerous" all the time in all the WW games, though I believe I have personally never played with morm (or at least don't remember it, which would mean he did not leave any special impression on me). Otherwise, what he says generally sounds more or less reasonable. But there is something about him that really makes me feel... displeased, that's the word.

EDIT: X-ed since The Might

[Kuruharan]

Yes, I know. Believe or not, and think what you will, but I actually thought that slight contradiction when making that post but decided to say exactly what I said anyway. It would have been a very long ramble if I had commented those two statements' relation to each other. But still, they're different things, really and I do not think there's any problem with having those two opinions at the same time.

...What?

Helpful? Nice to hear that. :D Stirring up mess and confusion? I might be doing that, but not intentionally...

I said "put up a front of being helpful."

[Kuruharan]

I do agree, however, that we should avoid lynching more than one today.

[Rikae]

There was definately a sense of Lommy going after Nerwen, pointing out her defensiveness and making her more defensive in the process. I've been at the other end of those sorts of tactics, and it's difficult to emerge unscathed. However, it could also be an instance of good wolf-hunting on Lommy's part. I found Nerwen suspicious to begin with, but at this point, it's difficult to sort out whether her continued suspicious behavior is provoked or real. Not just wolves, but some innocents, behave that way when backed into a corner.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, hope that at maximum two people will x-post with me.

About Nerwen. Her vote does not seem too okay, given that she votes a person with whom she had some quarrels earlier. But that's not the main thing. What I wanted to mention was this:

Besides, [Rikae] got lynched the first Day last game!

What's that got to do with anything?

If you think she's a wolf you should vote for her regardless of other considerations.
And her response:
Of course. That was a joke!

Now I think Kuru's argument is not valid. One can base his voting on whether f.ex. he does not want to vote a newbie who is playing first day in his first game, or other similar reasons like that one - I'm saying that because people generally DO that, just look around even here and today! But in that case, what really puzzles me, is Nerwen's reaction. I don't think there is any reason why she should not stand behind her opinion. Was that really a joke from the start? Or did a wolf-Nerwen realise that what she said is suspicious and decided to cover it?

Whatever the case, when I mentioned Kuru. He is one whose behavior I don't really like toDay. His one-liner comments make me think of an evil sinister little dwarf (something like Mim) sitting in a corner and always adding his comments in a squeaky voice. The comments he makes are not really creatively entering the discussion, rather are pointing at other people without the one who says them actually bringing himself in the spotlight. I need to look through his posts more carefully, but I really don't like his behavior.

EDIT: x-ed with Rikae and, now you see a nice illustration, two of these "one-liners" (though at least the second one does not look that bad on first sight as some of them do).

[Macalaure]

Lommy - others already noted she contradicts herself a lot. I think a self-contradicting Lommy is an innocent Lommy.

Legate - not sure, but tending slightly towards innocent

Aganzir - spoke sense, though only once

Menel - didn't say much.. appears innocent.. we'll see

Volo - innocent by consensus? Anyway, I think I overlooked his post #42. I'm less suspicious of him now. A good reread does miracles, sometimes.

The Might - confused, very confused. However, confused is not the same as suspicious. I'm tending towards innocent.

morm - not much apart from suspecting Lommy for being self-contradicting, no idea

Fea - genuine, could be anything, hopefully we'll see more tomorrow

Brinn - speaks sense, unspectacular

Sally - is present, but doesn't add much. Slightly suspicious

Farael - mute. I'm against lynching him. It's not fun if they can't scream. :p

A Little Green - makes me slightly uneasy, but even though she knows the game, she's still a newbie here, so she won't get my vote today

Nerwen - I reread her posts and she still seems not only more defensive than "usual", but more tense - consistently. In #61 she urges us to reread and reconsider. Very sensible, but also very smart to say when you're among the most-suspected. ;) The idea of Lommy threatening her is very far-fetched.

Valier - her "lynch the quiet ones who have no excuse" is worrisome, but that's all I can find

Kath - I disagree with her vote for the Might. Yes, she had little time, but still voting for a person who merely "caught her eye" is a suspicious thing.

Rikae - very involved. If she's a wolf, she's certainly not afraid to slip. Only few players are more vocal when they're guilty.

Shasta - Shasta?

Kuru - no red flags here - as grumpy as I recall him


That's way too many people looking innocent. I would only be comfortable with a vote for Nerwen or Kath at the moment.

[Brinniel]

Hey, hey, wait! I can't refresh as fast as the posts appear!
I agree...it's been awhile since I've seen so much posting on Day 1. And having to come and go with classes, I can't keep up! :eek:

I'm feeling a tad rushed because I have to go in about forty minutes, so I must vote fairly soon. But I'll try to make my thoughts as clear as I can.

It seems like I'm the only one suspicious of Volo today.
No, actually I feeling there's something fishy about him too. I can't quite grasp what it is, more of a gut feeling than anything. I don't think I would vote for him toDay though, because one, I'm unsure, and two, I don't want to spread the votes out any more. But if I have time, I'll go back and take a better look at his posts.

I'm not sure what to think of The Might now. Reading post #69, I became entirely suspicious of the "don't lynch me because I'm unique" argument. But then he went off and did a suicide vote...which makes me think he's now just giving up. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think a wolf would give up so easily like that...

I find Valier's vote to be a bit odd. Mainly because I can't see what's so suspicious about morm.

Nerwen's vote is probably the one I find most suspicious, though. Rikae mentions she's considering Lommy as a possibility, and Nerwen responds saying, "Try this," followed by an attack and vote on Lommy. It seems like she was just looking for a window of opportunity, and grabbed it once Rikae offered. It actually wouldn't be so suspicious if Nerwen expressed slight suspicions, but instead she jumps down so hard on Lommy, I can't help but find it odd.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Anyway, it's good practice to lynch Fea on Day 1 as she generally only causes problems the later it goes.

I could so easily say the same about you, morm. I was a wolf with you in the past. We were really good wolves. Ergo, I know you're a really good wolf who doesn't come off as wolf-like. My logic is usually this: Say it's the last day and it's me, mormegil, and some other random player. Neither seems any more or less innocent than the other. I know I'm innocent. I KNOW I'm not going to have any idea who to vote for. So my 'strategy,' if you want to call it that, is, when in doubt, to lynch somebody who I know will cause me doubt later. If I have a definite suspicion, I vote for the person I think is guilty. But if I don't know who to vote for, instead of lynching at random, I vote for somebody I know is going to complicate my decision-making later on. Does that make sense? Should I try to rephrase it?

I don't agree with Fea, but her pessimism seems genuine.

I'm not sure whether or not I should take this as a compliment. ;)

Hmmm...I'm curious to see what will happen, so I'll go ahead and do it:

++ The Might

for being so out of the ordinary.

What!?!??!

Okay, my immediate thoughts about this are:

I remember, I think, voting for myself when I was a wolf. Bluffing, as it were. Being suicidal as a way to throw people off. "No wolf would sacrifice herself!" If my memory is false, I know a true memory was me saying "I'm a wolf. Lynch me." and being truthful in that statement.

In any case, it was a bluff tactic.

Next thought: Voting for yourself is a ballsy thing to do in terms of personal education and education for the group.

What happens is, whether or not you live, the village is handed the perfect setup to study the bandwagon approach. It's REALLY easy for any wolf (or any innocent) to say "He's obviously a bluffing wolf and even if he's not, his insanity is dangerous to the village!" and start the voting.

From there, everybody can see who says and does what. Voting for yourself/declaring yourself as something is an excellent way (I've used it in the past) of gaging what's going on.

My hat's off to you, The Might, for taking initiative and giving the village some controversy to work with.

Here's how I'm going to react to The Might's suicide vote:

I'm going to ask people to make public what they think about it. Tell us how you feel about such a thing occurring. What's your opinion of day one suicide votes?

I happen to think he's innocent and going for the "Let's see whether or not people take advantage so we can study it later" approach. Only I'm stupid enough to do something like actually be guilty and admit it day one. I think.

[Thinlómien]

I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.I can see a wolf thinking this, but I can't see a wolf saying this. Thereby Valier leans more to the innocent side, if you ask me.

Even though:But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.This seems a bit vulgar of her. Everybody who's played with her she knows she truly has incredible hunches, but that kind of self-advertisement seems slightly furry. But that is not enough to make me really suspect her, I'd just like to point it out.

Fea's tone and attitude seem innocent, but I know very well she's able to fake it all...

Legate's nogrodish teacherly attitude (like Rikae phrased it) looks somewhat troublesome, but he hasn't really said or done anything I'd regard as suspicious, so I'm not really concerned about him at the moment.

Of those I've named as my suspects: I still think Brinn's first post is suspicious but her latter posts don't give me any reason to suspect her. Like I've said before, I would not like to vote Little Green today, especially now that she has started to make more sense.

I reread Nerwen too. Her earlier posts that used to make me suspicious seem quite normal to me now, but her later posts (starting from #68) seem suspicious. However I have a bad feeling I might be totally wrong about her... It's the feeling that it all looks to easy to be correct. I don't mean Nerwen's overtly wolvish (for she isn't) but if this suspicion of mine turned out to be true it would be all too easy and simple in a way (I really can't explain, it's just an unfomfortable feeling).

I think I might vote Nerwen today - she seems definitely most suspicious of those voted this far. I might be persuaded to vote someone else as, though, just as long as we don't end up with a multiple lynch.

Like I've said several times before, I really don't see why Nerwen and Rikae are accusing me of aggressiveness. It's odd of them and maybe even suspicious. But as the've both voted they might not be around to explain it to me right now so it may have to wait until tomorrow (provided, of course, that any of us is still alive).

If I say the whole village, then it doesn't mean I am talking about everyone.:D That was just too funny a comment. Quite an extraordinary flip-flop.

EDIT: xed with everyone since Kuru's double post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have to disappoint you, Fea. TM's self-vote is 99% inspired by behaviour he saw at Rikae in the last (his first) game. She voted herself on Day 1 and got subsequently lynched, and revealed innocent.

Of course, this raises questions like - is he innocent? Or, is he a wolf hoping people to remember that the last person they lynched like that was innocent, thus, they won't lynch him? Personally, I would expect the former from him. So, I'd think that is an innocentish behaviour for him.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So I just missed the fact that there was a third page while I was posting.

So more thoughts on what I missed while freezing in class:

Only partially related to the game: I really want everyone to get out a thesaurus and look up different words for 'defensive.' That word's as worn out as the adjective 'fresh' in a poetry workshop. Of COURSE everybody's defensive. People are accusing them, whether directly or implicitly, of being evil. If they aren't, they don't want to die and have the wolves win. If they are, they don't want to die and have the village win. Either way, nobody's going to invite accusations. Except apparently The Might.

Now I think Kuru's argument is not valid. One can base his voting on whether f.ex. he does not want to vote a newbie who is playing first day in his first game, or other similar reasons like that one - I'm saying that because people generally DO that, just look around even here and today! But in that case, what really puzzles me, is Nerwen's reaction. I don't think there is any reason why she should not stand behind her opinion. Was that really a joke from the start? Or did a wolf-Nerwen realise that what she said is suspicious and decided to cover it?

Whatever the case, when I mentioned Kuru. He is one whose behavior I don't really like toDay. His one-liner comments make me think of an evil sinister little dwarf (something like Mim) sitting in a corner and always adding his comments in a squeaky voice. The comments he makes are not really creatively entering the discussion, rather are pointing at other people without the one who says them actually bringing himself in the spotlight. I need to look through his posts more carefully, but I really don't like his behavior.

Huh?

Are you saying that Kuru saying to lynch wolves is... not valid?

I just got so incredibly confused.

---

My thoughts on not killing newbies on Day One:

I have no weird affection for them. Like... okay, that was badly phrased.

The reason I want to let them live isn't because I want them to have time to enjoy the game or because I feel guilty for prematurely ending their gaming careers.

I think we should leave the newbies around because I think they're a lot more likely to make mistakes as the game progresses and wolf-stress levels rise.

---

I have to disappoint you, Fea. TM's self-vote is 99% inspired by behaviour he saw at Rikae in the last (his first) game. She voted herself on Day 1 and got subsequently lynched, and revealed innocent.

I'm not saying TM was emulating me. Just that I'd done something similar in the past when I was guilty. Just that, whether 'younger' players know it or not, there's precedent for a wolf to play a suicide card.

[satansaloser2005]

Vote summary, mostly so I don't have to scroll through to find them all.


Might: 2
Lommy: 1
Morm: 1
Nerwen: 1



For some reason I bumped into Morm this morning and I thought he felt a little fuzzy. :rolleyes: Call it a hunch, but for now that'll have to do, being day one and all. I certainly don't see Might as a furry fiend and thus I'm voting, in a way, to save him. Not really, but I'd rather take my chances among the other three votees (Lommy, Morm, and Nerwen, who I will discuss in greater detail later if I get the opportunity) and hope to find a werewolf in their midst than allow someone to perish whom I sincerely believe to be innocent. If nothing else, if Might does perish I will be sure it was not by my hand. And so my vote must go towards....


++Morm



By the way, great posts today! Hopefully I can check in before deadline. Hopefully.... *scampers off to class*

[mormegil]

Valier seems far too concerned trying to save herself. The way I understood her posts was that since I usually suspect her and have been sucessful in the past, for better and wose, at getting her lynched she better kill me off. The remaining posts seem to be designed to keep her alive, too much so for me to think her an ordo. Call in knee-jerk if you wish but she seems most suspicious based on that.

++Valier

Lommy seems a bit contradictory but I'm not sure if she's suspicious. I don't trust anybody who votes for themselves so the Might seems reasonably suspicious too. Volo give me the gut feeling of guilty and not only for his first post but he seems a bit frazzeled and that he is trying to be visible and helpful.

Kuru, me wanting to lynch Fea is akin to me wanting to lynch Kath...it's based on principle not reason.


Rikae seems innocent enough for now as does Mac

[Brinniel]

Agh...you beat me to the punch, Legate. I was about to say the same exact thing.

It's always possible for a wolf to make a self-vote, but it's very risky. I kind of doubt a Were-Might would take such risks, especially since he is not exactly safe. But then again, it could be a desperate attempt to divert attention from him, reminding people of last game and not to make the same mistake. Anything is possible.

Well, I certainly don't want to make the same mistake that was made last game if he does turn out innocent. Right now, it's a toss-up to me whether Might is a wolf. I don't want to put him out of the picture, but at the same time I don't want to vote for him toDay. If he's still looking odd toMorrow, I will certainly look more closely at him.

Btw, I have to vote in a couple of minutes...

EDIT: X-ed with three people

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Kuru, me wanting to lynch Fea is akin to me wanting to lynch Kath...it's based on principle not reason.

Just so everybody knows: I take no offense to morm trying to kill me. We have a long history of this sort of thing. I want him dead too.

Speaking of that, and more importantly: because he voted for Valier and I don't think he should have,

++Morm

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Huh?

Are you saying that Kuru saying to lynch wolves is... not valid?

I just got so incredibly confused.

No, I am saying that his opinion that people should not take into account whether f.ex. the person is a newbie or was lynched on Day 1 in the last game is not valid. Because people do, normally, and you yourself now proved that when you said your opinion on that.
I'm getting the feeling that your wits are somewhat sleepy, because you obviously are not catching what I am writing (no offence, it just seems to me like that).


I'm not saying TM was emulating me. Just that I'd done something similar in the past when I was guilty. Just that, whether 'younger' players know it or not, there's precedent for a wolf to play a suicide card.
I was not thinking you were. I was simply explaining the origins of his behavior, so that you (and others who haven't played in that game) know.

[Aganzir]

One thing maybe worth bringing forward, maybe not: to me it seems that Lommy is protecting Greenie. It can be understood, since she must be very excited to see her play at last and doesn't wish her to die too soon, but anyway.

Post #47 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=537466&postcount=47).
It could be taken as a warning: "That was not a good move, do something else." Also it looks like Lommy's taking a little distance to Greenie, maybe in case she'll get lynched. I think it doesn't look genuine.
At the end, Lommy states that as Greenie is a newbie, it's possible that Lommy's mistaken and that's only her style to play. Or that she should be given a chance. Or whatever. The main point is that although Greenie has said something slightly suspicious, she shouldn't be lynched yet.

(is bolded by me, as it was italized in the original post)Lommy, though... She does seem very genuine, no doubt. She hasn't given me any reason for suspicion as yet. However, I'm afraid that if she is a wolf, she'll pass unnoticed.
Because of the continuous accusations on Valier, I read through her post again. Nothing too suspicious there, except maybe for this a little unnerving phrase: If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.
This may be a small, insignificant thing, but anyway: I don't like this emphasizing of words very much. It's so.. "In the very improbable case that they are wolves... I don't actually think they are but if they happened to be..." Ok. Mentioning two of her fellow wolves in a slightly suspecting tone in order to look good if either of them is lynched later on? But that would be quite risky, and I'm not sure if Greenie would do that. Unless she thought everybody would think it too obvious for any wolf to do.

Considering Valier herself, she looks quite neutral to me. However, if a certain person(s) turned out to be a wolf, I'd look at her very carefully.

I wouldn't be surprised to find at least one wolf among these three. I'm still wary about Nerwen though, and I'm most probably going to vote for one of these toDay.
I think voting for Might now is more like throwing away one's vote. I don't think he's a wolf - at least I remember that when I was a (newbie) wolf I was so very, very afraid of getting lynched on Day 1 that I wouldn't believe a newbie wolf would act like he has. Though everybody plays differently, I must admit.

edit: xed since Mac

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm getting the feeling that your wits are somewhat sleepy, because you obviously are not catching what I am writing (no offence, it just seems to me like that).

My wits are distracted. I just found out that I got into an extremely competitive program I applied to. My school offers a class third term where my painting teacher takes seven students (chosen based on ability, application questionnaire, and the opinion of four NYC based artists) to live and work in Brooklyn. I was trying to read/comprehend while dancing a very excited happy dance.

I was not thinking you were. I was simply explaining the origins of his behavior, so that you (and others who haven't played in that game) know.

Okeydokey.

[Brinniel]

I don't particularly like morm's retorting vote for Valier, but still, I don't think it's suspicious enough to lynch him.

I have to vote now:

++Nerwen

For reasons I stated earlier.

Anyways, I have to go now. But I do think everyone will agree when I say let's avoid a double or triple lynching toDay. I remember last time that happened on Day 1. It was disasterous.

[Kuruharan]

I think the newbie/veteran discussion is in its own way less helpful than the quiet/loud discussion. At least the quiet/loud discussion is focusing on the actions (or lack thereof) of the players and not how long they’ve been around. I don’t think how long a player has been around has anything to do with what one should do at all. I meant it when I said that if somebody thinks another player is acting like a wolf then you should vote for them regardless of other considerations.

Nice selection of candidates at the moment…nice and dangerous for a double lynching…

*makes notes about who started voting for who when*

We might find wolves among those who are spreading out lynching danger among multiple targets.

[A Little Green]

Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.

Lommy is still a big questionmark. I don't really know what to think about her. She has been contradicting herself, but then, she's always doing that so I wouldn't draw any conclusions on that. She seems quite innocent at the moment, but there is something about her brisk organising manner. I'll be keeping an eye on her.

The Might's self-vote struck me as odd. I would say that it was more the behaviour of a frustrated innocent than of a plotting wolf.

Nerwen seems probably the most suspicious of those who have received votes. Or, the least non-suspicious :D

[Macalaure]

Responding to Fea's request: TM's self vote leaves me a little bit with the impression of a tantrum. He's suspected, he doesn't understand why, he's upset. I certainly understand the feeling, don't get me wrong, but I still don't really understand why he then acted his frustration out. Anyway, because of this tantrum-feeling I get, I very much doubt he's guilty, since a wolf, though he doesn't enjoy it, expects to be suspected and receive votes.

Good points by Lommy and morm against Valier. Still, I'd like to keep her around for at least one more day. I'm putting morm on my "leaning innocent"-list

A vote count, anybody?

Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)

Looks double-lynch-dangerous. But since nobody wants one and the wolves probably won't dare to initiate one, it could only happen within the last minute voting craze. I would herewith like to disencourage said craze.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think the newbie/veteran discussion is in its own way less helpful than the quiet/loud discussion. At least the quiet/loud discussion is focusing on the actions (or lack thereof) of the players and not how long they’ve been around. I don’t think how long a player has been around has anything to do with what one should do at all. I meant it when I said that if somebody thinks another player is acting like a wolf then you should vote for them regardless of other considerations.

I did not spot any newbie/veteran discussion here this far. In fact, the first one who is speculating what effect it has if someone is a newbie (with the response: no effect) is you. If you are thinking about what I was saying about your response to Nerwen (and what Fea was asking then), it was only an illustration I used and I did not speculate about it. So let's not start on that topic.

Looks double-lynch-dangerous. But since nobody wants one and the wolves probably won't dare to initiate one, it could only happen within the last minute voting craze. I would herewith like to disencourage said craze.

All right. I'm probably voting Nerwen, mainly for the reason stated above (reaction to Kuru, defensiveness, her retaliatory vote). Just at the moment it seems that it would be a double, so I only am checking in if there is at least one more person around now who would vote the same.

[Macalaure]

morm and TM lead the vote, and I'm very loath to see any of the two go. Since I'm tending to think her innocent, I would dislike to vote for Lommy in order to save them. I would prefer Nerwen over Valier. Kath would be an option for me, but adding another name really doesn't make sense anymore.

I think I'm probably going to vote for Nerwen.

(edit: crossed with Legate)

[Thinlómien]

Brinn and Legate have raised good points about Nerwen.

Fea's try at turning the discussion to The Might's self-vote seemed a bit odd and wolvish at this phase of the Day. But from how well I know her I'm not sure at all if she was only joking... :rolleyes:

One thing maybe worth bringing forward, maybe not: to me it seems that Lommy is protecting Greenie.And I thought I was suspecting her... ;)
We're sharing the computer so if I wanted to advise her, why not be a bit unethical and just tell her instead of making mysterious posts on the thread?

Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.I agree. While he definitely doesn't glow with the light of innocence, he does not seem overtly hairy either.

Looks double-lynch-dangerous. But since nobody wants one and the wolves probably won't dare to initiate one, it could only happen within the last minute voting craze. I would herewith like to disencourage said craze.You're right. I think there's a big bunch of us who want to be there and save their vote until the last moment (not literally last moment but to the say, last 15 minutes of the Day) so they can interfere if a catastrophe is about to take place... and sadly some of us might not have good intentions.

edit: xed with Legate and Mac

[Aganzir]

I think I could vote for Nerwen toDay, though not yet but a little closer to the deadline. Not too close, however - it will become a total chaos if half the people decide to vote just a few minutes before it.

I don't suspect her very much more than Greenie, but the difference between the two is that Nerwen has gained so much more suspicion toDay that left alive, her presence would distract us from finding the other possible wolves toMorrow.

The things I find most suspicious:
-What I said in my first post:
The thing that makes me a little uncertain is how she started behaving after Rikae pointed out something slightly suspicious in her posts. It looks like she tries to get Rikae use her energy in defending & explaining herself, rather than going on suspecting Nerwen. See post #31.

-The following. It's true, but it just seems to me she tries to divert suspicion away from her. Agh, I can't really put my finger on it. It makes me feel uneasy.
Now I want to say this: the conversation of the last few hours is making me very uneasy. I feel that we're all being directed towards seeing certain types of behaviour as suspicious, when they're not really.
...
I urge everyone to re-read all the posts as objectively as they can. Ignore what other people (me included) tell you is suspicious– make up your own mind, because someone is trying to make it up for you.

-That joke thing.

edit: xed with husband, Sandman and that Baggins

[Thinlómien]

I will probably vote Nerwen too, unless some more suspicious candidate emerges... which I don't think is very probable.

edit: xed with Agan

[Aganzir]

We're sharing the computer so if I wanted to advise her, why not be a bit unethical and just tell her instead of making mysterious posts on the thread?
Because Noggie is there? :p

[Thinlómien]

Because Noggie is there? :p:rolleyes: I could have told her while Nogrod was on the balcony destroying his lungs.... :p

I think you Agan had a fair point about Nerwen possibly proving a later distraction. I had not considered that aspect.

[Kuruharan]

So let's not start on that topic.

Agreed.

In the Thinlómien vs. Nerwen choice that seems to be the best chance we have to limit the damage and keep us from having a double lynching...I'm inclined to vote against Thinlómien...more because she gives the impression of trying to be too helpful...at least that is the way it looks for me.

But I won't do anything that might lead to a double lynching.

[Thinlómien]

I'm inclined to vote against Thinlómien...more because she gives the impression of trying to be too helpful...at least that is the way it looks for me.Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

[Macalaure]

Even though I'm going to vote for Nerwen in all probability, I really don't like the argument of "possible distraction for the days to come". It's a bad thing to vote for a person on the basis of who is going to cause the most controversy. Controversy isn't distracting, it's good to have around in order to have a lively and productive village.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, from the above, it looks like not in the slightest problematic fifty or seventy votes for Nerwen, so I am not afraid any longer to vote for her. Even if all of those who said that were wolves and change their votes, well, at least we will know them all toMorrow. To avoid further confusion,

++Nerwen

[Volo]

++Valier

explanation in next post.

[Kuruharan]

Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

To me its a warning sign when people say a lot that is not terribly coherent and/or self-contradicting.

It can be creating a smoke screen by saying a lot and trying to look helpful.

[Volo]

Ok, sorry for that. I haven't had time to read the third page at all as I just came late from a film, but I noticed that if I want to have any chance of lynching the person I suspect, I'd have to do it very quickly.

Valier's post #70 is a bit too desperate.

I'm sorry that you had too little time... :(

[mormegil]

Ok, sorry for that. I haven't had time to read the third page at all as I just came late from a film, but I noticed that if I want to have any chance of lynching the person I suspect, I'd have to do it very quickly.

Valier's post #70 is a bit too desperate.

I'm sorry that you had too little time... :(

Desparate is a good word to describe her Volo. Thank you.

It seems tied right now between Nerwen and I, then the Might and Valier.

[Aganzir]

++ Nerwen

Nerwen-4, morm-3, Might-2, Valier-2, Lommy-1

[Macalaure]

Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Legate -> Nerwen (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Volo -> Valier (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

Half an hour til deadline. Let's make it

Mac -> Nerwen (Nerwen 4, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

And just so that it's official:

++Nerwen

(edit: crossed with Aganzir's vote)

[Meneltarmacil]

Gack! Should have been more active here.

Anyhow, it's getting close to the deadline, and I think I ought to vote. Regarding who seems suspicious, I'm going to go with something I noticed earlier in morm. Basically, he seems to be acting odd lately, posting a lot less than he has in the past (with one of them being a random accusation toss-out near the beginning). I agree that he seems suspicious. Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Valier and The Might have been described as two wolves that agreed to adopt different playing styles, and I would agree with Rikae's sentiment that their interaction early on appears "scripted" as she put it. However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

As for The Might's self-vote, that does not mean much to me. I remember a fellow from the old days of WW by the name of Nilpaurion Felagund who used to vote for himself all the time, Wolf or no.

My vote today is going to:

++mormegil

Now, since it seems unlikely that I'll be lynched today and have not made myself look suspicious enough to be lynched tomorrow, I can only assume that the wolves will eat me tonight. Therefore, after the Day is done, I'll make sure to set the dinner table for the guests and cover myself in butter.

[A Little Green]

This is getting pretty horrible. :D

I'll probably be voting for Nerwen as well. Like I said before, she is the least non-suspicious of the ones in vote and I dislike the idea of bringing new candidates in. Besides, now that I think on it, I must say that the phrase I feel that we're all being directed towards seeing certain types of behaviour as suspicious, when they're not really. looks a bit like an attempt of distraction indeed.

Something about Lommy is still making me uneasy, though.. Should Nerwen be lynched and innocent, though, it would certainly make me put an additional questionmark on Lommy's innocence.

Well, better get on with it, then.

++ Nerwen

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Votes this far:

Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Legate -> Nerwen (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Volo -> Valier (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Wife -> Nerwen (Nerwen 4, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Mac -> Nerwen (Nerwen 5, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Menel -> morm (Nerwen 5, morm 4, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
LG -> Nerwen (Nerwen 6, morm 4, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

Left to vote (unless I am mistaken):

Thinlómien
Farael (not probable)
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

Please be careful that you don't cross-post with anyone. A cross-post can mean a double-lynch in these circumstances, so try to type quick. In case of Lommy and LG ( :) ) such a thing should not happen, but otherwise...

EDIT: okay, I'm saying something and not doing that myself :) x-ed with LG. I'm editing the post to reflect her vote.

[mormegil]

Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Menel, I think you misunderstood. I stated that it seemed to me that she wanted to kill me because I suspect her on occasion and have been successful at getting her lynched in the past (for better or worse). You seem to have turned it around the other way...why?

Now, since it seems unlikely that I'll be lynched today and have not made myself look suspicious enough to be lynched tomorrow, I can only assume that the wolves will eat me tonight. Therefore, after the Day is done, I'll make sure to set the dinner table for the guests and cover myself in butter.

Rather odd again Menel. I don't like this thought and think it horribly suspicious to say something like this.

However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?

[Thinlómien]

Let's make it a bit more certain.

++Nerwen

Now, I hope she really is a wolf. It's not nice for anyone if she isn't (expect for the wolves obv.) and it won't be definitely nice to me, judging by various comments heard toDay... :rolleyes:

edit: xed with morm

[Kuruharan]

I'm not totally comfortable with my choices here.

While I can't deny that morm hasn't been posting normally...I'm not comfortable with voting against him.

I'm also not comfortable voting for Nerwen either. I'd really rather vote for Thinlómien...

But at this point in many respects one is about as good as the other...either one could be a wolf...

Course, they might both be innocent too... :(

Still...

++ Nerwen

[mormegil]

Now, I hope she really is a wolf. It's not nice for anyone if she isn't (expect for the wolves obv.) and it won't be definitely nice to me, judging by various comments heard toDay... :rolleyes:

edit: xed with morm


This seems horribly apologetic. We vote as best we can and live with the consequences. I never like this approach and it makes me more suspicious than I was before. I feel like you are saying..."well, here goes my vote, when it turns out that your innocent you will all know that I felt really bad for it, so don't come looking my way because I'm innocent"

[Volo]

A very quickly formed list mainly to avoid being killied during the night for not suspecting clearly ( :rolleyes: )

Leaning Good:
Thinlómien
Meneltarmacil
Macalaure
The Might
Mormegil

Leaning Neutral (unknown):
Aganzir
Feanor of the Peredhil
Brinniel
Satansaloser2005
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan
Kath
Nerwen

Leaning Evil:
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Little Green
Valier
Rikae

[Thinlómien]

This seems horribly apologetic. We vote as best we can and live with the consequences. I never like this approach and it makes me more suspicious than I was before. I feel like you are saying..."well, here goes my vote, when it turns out that your innocent you will all know that I felt really bad for it, so don't come looking my way because I'm innocent"Well, yes, I'm fully aware that I have to live with the consequences of the lynch regardless of are they good or bad. Besides, I am innocent and I feel bad for myself if Nerwen is proven innocent... :p

[Volo]

This seems horribly apologetic. We vote as best we can and live with the consequences. I never like this approach and it makes me more suspicious than I was before. I feel like you are saying..."well, here goes my vote, when it turns out that your innocent you will all know that I felt really bad for it, so don't come looking my way because I'm innocent"
I'm probably the most skilled person judging Lommy (and Nogrod, and Aganzir) wrong, but that sounds as what I said and it was from an Innocent's mouth.

Tomorrow will bring much much more light, this was a good Day to be looked at from tomorrow.

EDIT: Obviously - Xd with Lommy.

[Kuruharan]

Since I won't be here the next Day, if Nerwen is innocent, I urge somebody to take a very close look at Thinlómien. I just have a bad feeling about her.

I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.

I've had that happen to me before and it was a wolf trying to figure out how to better cover itself.

[mormegil]

Well, yes, I'm fully aware that I have to live with the consequences of the lynch regardless of are they good or bad. Besides, I am innocent and I feel bad for myself if Nerwen is proven innocent... :p


But the tone suggests that you know she will be shown to be innocent. Which, if it proves true, reflects poorly for you.

Since I won't be here the next Day, if Nerwen is innocent, I urge somebody to take a very close look at Thinlómien. I just have a bad feeling about her.

*salutes* Aye Aye Captain. I'm on it as I feel the same way too.

[Nogrod]

The sun has set and Nerwen will be no more.

Please wait a moment...

[Nogrod]

What does a shocked and stupefied hobbit do to get over the anguish?

Well you guessed it right.

They all crowded into the Green Dragon to get some advice with a pint.

The older members of the village: the old Lommy Baggins, Menel "Lupo" Furryface (who did fall asleep only to wake up a minute before the sunset), Morm Harrybelly and gammer Fea-Belladonna Briarpatch, Farael Twofoot (who never woke up after getting a nap after the first pint), Val Furryfoot, Kath Woodyend and the gaffer Kuru Shrewthwacker sat on the big table in the middle of the inn.

The adults: both Sackville-Bagginses, Agan and Legate, Volo "Justy" Proudfoot, Mac Sandyman, Brinn Burrows and Rikae Took claimed the second largest one.

The youngsters: Might of Greenholm, Sally Shortbrush, Lilla Greenhand, Nerwen Hornblower and Shasta of the River were forced to be content with the smallest one right beside the doorway.

One thing was clear on everyone’s mind: no hobbit had ever killed another hobbit in the Shire. But now it seemed that the age-old tradition was in danger of being broken. The faces were stern when the discussion opened but soon the hobbits fell back to their normal manner of speaking with jokes shared and puns thrown over and within the tables. And there was ale a-plenty and loads of food as well. After all if they had prepared for a feast so why to leave the food to rot even if there wasn't the jubilant mood they had been expecting?

The old feuds between the Harrybellies and Furryfoots seemed to ignite and in the end of the day the usual “she’s a Baggins so she can’t be up to any good” –argument was brought to the table as well.

At one point the young Greenholm already stood up from his table and promised to kill himself if the older people didn’t leave him alone. But as no one seemed to take the dramatics seriously enough he quietly settled back to his seat.

After getting a mug or two too much of ale Legate Sackville-Baggins rose from his seat and started throwing suspicions to the table of the elders: “I’m displeased with you Harrybelly; and your arguments old Shrewthwacker are not valid and I don’t even like your behaviour in the first place; and Miss. Briarpatch, your wits are sleepy”. After some cooling down it was decided that no major damage was done – even if he was a Sackville-Baggins.

It soon became obvious that also some others than the loudmouthed Legate Sackville-Baggins were having second thoughts over the old Morm Harrybelly. But even more clouds started emerging over the young Nerwen Hornblower.

She had actively taken part in the discussions at the early hours but went paler and paler - and fell quieter and quieter - as the discussion got on.

"I’d say it’s you", said Rikae Took and Brinn Burrows agreed. The Sackville-Bagginses were ready to follow the line. Mac Sandyman looked at the others around him in the adult’s table and agreed as well. The adult’s table had spoken – only Volo "Justy" Proudfoot looked like disagreeing.

Some youngsters as well as oldies seemed to be happy with the decision.

“So what shall we do then?” asked Kuru Shrewthwacker.
“Killing feels nasty” added Lommy Baggins.

“I’ll spare you the trouble” the young Hornblower said and ran out from the Inn.

The others followed after her but it was too late. Nerwen had thrown herself into the Water. Her body floated downriver. It was an unchanged body of a hobbit.

The dead:
Nogrod (mod) - Noggie Boffin - beheaded and played soccer with on Night1
Nerwen (ordo) - Nerwen Hornblower - jumped to the river not to force anyone to kill another hobbit on Day1

The living:
Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael – Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Valier - Vallen FurryFoot
Kath – Kath Woodyend
Rikae – Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin – Shasta of the River
Kuruharan -Kuru Shrewthwacker

Night2 has landed.

The werewolves do your thing. The Seer and The Ranger give me your picks.

[Nogrod]

This scene contains gross medieval-style violence and confusing philosophy. Any people under 18 or persons with tender souls are strongly adviced not to read the following and to skip straight to the end of the narration with the list of who's dead and who's alive.


The werewolves gathered around the mallorn as the Night before.

“Before we go on... or okay, we can walk as we talk... I’d like to get this piece out from my mind”, started the Flame. “I mean one thing still baffles me. I really felt good last Night playing football with that miserable hobbit – and you must admit it was a beauty for a goal. But does it mean I’m not bad then because I was doing something that felt good?”

“No, no, no... Let’s make one thing clear. We have our own right and our own good. And we pursue them as well as these goodies pursue theirs. Our good just is evil while theirs is good”, the Shard explained somewhat impatiently and kicked the door of a hobbithole in.

“But if you take that position you have to admit that in the end we are striving at exactly the same thing as the goodies... the final good I mean?”, put in the Breath who was following the Shard inside at arm’s lengtht. Together they dragged the struggling Furryfoot out from under the cupboard she had tried to hide and threw him violently on to the table for the Drop and the Flame to catch.

“Okay, now hold this creature for me if you please. It’s hard to cut not hitting a vein when the thing you’re supposed to cut kicks and bites.” The Drop demanded looking at his friends resentfully. “And coming back to the topic... isn’t the good of the goodies then the good itself and thus the primary good? That would mean that our good is just a corrupted mirror-image or at least derivative of or subservient to the good itself?”, he continued while cutting the hobbit's skin carefully first from the breast and stomach and then continuing down the inner sides of her legs.

“That’s a hard nut to crack indeed”, the Flame frowned and started peeling Vallen’s skin off from the cut the Drop had made. This far she had been wailing and screaming but now she seemed to fall in somekind of trance of pain and just shook quietly letting out an occasional wail every now and then.

“Alright. So you’re on for an argument, eh?”, asked the Shard who had been building a fire at the other end of the livingroom but now stood up and turned around. “Look at it this way then. If we just make a distinction between the the good and bad as such and the good and bad as we feel them? Wouldn’t that solve the problem for you?”

“Ahh, that’s a clever move.” The Breath said raising his head to look at the Shard for a second. He had been helping the Flame with the groins but halted the operation to answer. “But it still doesn’t seem to cancel the fact that we should be striving for bad and still we pursue that which we feel good about”, the Breath looked content with his answer and went back finishing the skinning.

“My brain hurts...”, the Drop exclaimed with a low voice bringing the skewer to the table.

“Oh, that’s too bad! Or is it good for you?”, grinned the Flame as he took the skewer from the Drop and started turning the now completely skinned hobbit around.

“Shut up or I’ll entertain myself with slowly grilling you instead of this hobbit!”, the Drop challenged the Flame now clearly irritated, grasping the skewer from the other end and looking at the Flame to the eyes dead seriously. “I don’t like the way you make jokes over grave matters.”

“Okay, c’mon guys. No need to get upset because of a civilised conversation.” The Breath came between the two and tried to cool his mates. “Now let’s ask the hobbit. She seems to be still alive and kickin’”, with that he flashed his most hearty grin.

“So what do you say? Is this good or bad?” the Drop asked bending towards the half-dead hobbit’s face.

Valier Furryfoot was trembling from cold, pain and agony but managed to mutter an answer. “B-bb-ad, tt-terr-ibly b-bad, p-pleee-ase be ki-iind an-dd le-mme g-go!”

“You see? We’re doing the right thing!”, the Shard yelled from the other part of the room triumphantly.

“Oh my... the right thing then... here we go again”, the Breath frowned and looked at his two friends standing around the silently squeaking and shivering skinned hobbit.

“No, no. Nonsense. She said this is bad and we are baddies so lets get on with it! No more nuts, more action, okay?”, the Flame finally bursted and ran the skewer through the hobbit who screamed the last time in her life as she lost her consciousness from pain.

“Maybe you’re right”, said the Drop and hoisted the skinned hobbitskewer with the help of the Breath. “But I’m not sure the matter is settled as yet”.

“Right? D’uh!”, the Breath shook his head. “The fire’s ready yet?”

The rest of the scene is censored as being outright banal and overtly cruel. If Nogrod doesn't start to behave he will be excluded from writing narrations any more.


~*~

The hobbits gathered around the mallorn in the morning and as they feared someone was missing.

Valier "Vallen" Furryfoot was indeed missing. They ran to her house fearing the worse but no fear they had entertained quite matched the truth. There she presumably was, skinned, grilled and chopped and laid to the table on portions with some fresh greens and ale.

And this was what they found from the table as well...

http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/cc90/NogrodU/HandvsShire3.jpg


The dead:
Nogrod (mod) - Noggie Boffin - beheaded and played soccer with on Night1
Nerwen (ordo) - Nerwen Hornblower - jumped to the river not to force anyone to kill another hobbit on Day1
Valier (ordo) - Vallen FurryFoot - skinned, grilled and served as a breakfast on Night2

The living:
Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael – Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Kath – Kath Woodyend
Rikae – Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin – Shasta of the River
Kuruharan -Kuru Shrewthwacker

Day2 begins!

[Thinlómien]

Now that was quite disgusting...

The topmost question right now is why was Valier killed. The first possible reason that occured to me was this: (and I believe I'm probably not mistaken here) But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.That could be interpreted as a seer hint, couldn't it?

Now, if the wolves thought Valier might be the seer, then she can't have said anything that would contradict the actual roles to a large extent, ie she couldn't, for example, have strongly supported a wolf or blamed an innocent heavily, could she? Of course that depends on the actual wording. I'm going to look through her posts and what she said about each villager.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh dear. That IS indeed brutal and senseless violence. I think Noggie's gone a little bit off the deep end.



Let us have a moment of silence for our friend Valier Furryfoot. Her wisdom has guided us, her presence has lifted our spirits, and her body has made quite tasty horsdeouvres. Uhhhh I mean....we'll miss her? :p

[The Might]

Lol, again a nice story Nogrod, makes me somehow think of the 3 trolls.

Anyway, about the first day, I think it was A Little Green that put it best, I simply wasn't in the mood of again being voted like in the last game only because I act a bit confused and maybe confusing.
No confusion means no fun I guess. And Legate was correct too, I did want to see if I would be lynched like Rikae in the last game.

Anyway, it really is hard for me to analyse how people act, as I have very little to compare this with, in some cases nothing at all.
I find Legate somewhat suspicious at the moment...as far as the others are concerned I have yet made a clear opinion...really difficult if you don't know the people.

Well, hopefully will make my mind today, after I read through some more posts.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).

and

Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.

So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

[Aganzir]

That was disgusting.

I, too, think it sounds probable that the wolves mistook Valier for the seer, but two other possible reasons struck me as well.

1) Valier & her hunches were considered too dangerous for someone.
2) At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones. There were others who were more than her for lynching the quiet, though, so I don't know.

[Thinlómien]

The only people Valier mentioned were The Might and morm.

As to The Might, she only disagreed with his tactic about lynching the quiet, so that is hardly going to lead us anywhere.

Morm then... this is more complicated... Valier said she's getting a "weird vibe" from him, which sounds like a seerish comment.
This time he is very quiet and unopinionated which is odd for him. Since he has not posted a reason why, I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve. On the other hand, here she reasons her opinion like any villager with no extra insight. Although, I think - and the wolves could have thought that way too - that a seer would have said this as well as an ordo, since unrevealed seers need to reason their votes as much as other people.
Right now I am leaning towards Morm....not that I have a good reason...just well a feeling. Sometimes my feelings lead me astray, but I find when in doubt it is best to listen to them.Here she both talks about feelings in a manner that could be interpreted as seerish and underlines she has no good reason to suspect morm, which could be seen as a way of trying to make her seem not like a seer who had dreamed of him. On the other hand, it looks like she was plainly talking about gut-feelings (which probably was true as she was an ordo...).

Basically, you can read those quotes in either way. If the wolves assumed Valier to be the seer (like I think they did) one can read her posts the way that she had probably dreamed of morm or the way that even if she had been the seer it would have been just a normal suspicion.

If I try to imagine her as the seer, it sounds more like she had dreamt of morm than that she hadn't, but on the other hand, why would she as the seer suspected morm-wolf that loudly? So her being killed as the seer doesn't necessarily point at morm being a wolf. I mean, the wolves might have killed her even if morm was an innocent. Certainly the wolves knew, though, that Valier's death would point at morm.

I think I'm slightly confused with my own logic and not sure that I make sense at all, but I think that the combination of that "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" -comment and morm's guilt would be a very good reason for the wolves to try to get rid of Valier and thus I suspect morm.

I mean, that comment of Valier's wasn't a foolproof seer hint. It didn't occur to me that she might be the seer and it seems it didn't occur to our ranger either. But it did occur to the wolves. Why? Because they're sharper and more avid to catch seer hint than I and the ranger? Maybe. Because one of them was supected by Valier so that it really looked like she was the seer? I think that would be a better and more waterproof explanation.

I'm far from confident of morm's guilt, but he has taken the place of my top suspect, thanks to Valier's death.

EDIT: xed with everybody

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Everybody that directly mentioned her. (I'm using a search utility, so if I miss any, forgive me?)

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

...

Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish.

...

At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf.

True again. But how is it possible to keep an eye on someone who never turns up?

I agree with [Rikae], though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.

I disagree. The more you talk, the more probably you make a slip or contradict yourself (trust me, I have enough experience of both being a loudmouth and of being a hopelessly poor wolf ;)).

Now I also looked back at Valier's post and let me say only that she seems a little getting close to the contradicting - herself edge. I must say I will keep an eye out and hopefully she appears yet (from what she says it seems she will).

I agree that Valier's two posts seem rather contradictory, but I'm not sure that's enough to form an actual suspicion. But I will be watching her closely.

I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time.

I agree with [Rikae] on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves.

...

It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too.

Because of the continuous accusations on Valier, I read through her post again. Nothing too suspicious there, except maybe for this a little unnerving phrase: Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best.

If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lilla Greenhand
If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALG
If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

I don't find anything particularly suspicious with that. I do it quite often regardless of my role.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc http://forum.barrowdowns.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=537464#post537464)
*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

Well, not good enough as it was spotted... Now this makes me want to lean to lynching Valier and finding out what she is. I'll try to take the feeling critically.

Volo looks suspicious to me. First he criticises Rikae along the lines Legate did, but much stronger, then he agrees with her and conveniently jumps on the Valier-bandwaggon (#39).

seem innocent to me and Legate and Valier too (both are just gut-feelings and based on their normal-seeming behaviour), but to a lesser extent.

I'm not happy with voting Valier, but I haven't found any better reasons to vote anybody else. I hope she will return before any bandwagons will take place.

I'm glad to see Kath has joined the discussion, and I don't see anything objectionable in her post.
It is difficult to say anything about Aganzir at this point, but I'd like to know her opinion on Valier.

...

I do find Valier suspicious, and although I'd like the chance to play with her again (I think the only other game we had together was my first), there are good reasons not to vote for pretty much everyone on Day 1. What should we do, decide who's most "expendable" or who's most suspicious?

Of Valier I am still very unsure. I'll be keeping an eye on her.

Valier is beginning to look a bit furry to me.

She seems unnecessarily defensive and then votes for Morm out of the blue on some...I'm not even sure "suspect suspicion" really adequately describes it.

Still I'm very reluctant to vote for her today.

I'm leaning toward giving Valier a chance to look guiltier, or more innocent toMorrow.

Valier - her "lynch the quiet ones who have no excuse" is worrisome, but that's all I can find

I find Valier's vote to be a bit odd. Mainly because I can't see what's so suspicious about morm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.

I can see a wolf thinking this, but I can't see a wolf saying this. Thereby Valier leans more to the innocent side, if you ask me.

Even though: Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.

This seems a bit vulgar of her. Everybody who's played with her she knows she truly has incredible hunches, but that kind of self-advertisement seems slightly furry. But that is not enough to make me really suspect her, I'd just like to point it out.

Valier seems far too concerned trying to save herself. The way I understood her posts was that since I usually suspect her and have been sucessful in the past, for better and wose, at getting her lynched she better kill me off. The remaining posts seem to be designed to keep her alive, too much so for me to think her an ordo. Call in knee-jerk if you wish but she seems most suspicious based on that.

++Valier

Speaking of that, and more importantly: because he voted for Valier and I don't think he should have,

++Morm

Considering Valier herself, she looks quite neutral to me. However, if a certain person(s) turned out to be a wolf, I'd look at her very carefully.

I don't particularly like morm's retorting vote for Valier, but still, I don't think it's suspicious enough to lynch him.


Good points by Lommy and morm against Valier. Still, I'd like to keep her around for at least one more day.

I would prefer Nerwen over Valier.

++Valier

explanation in next post.

Valier's post #70 is a bit too desperate.

Desparate is a good word to describe her Volo. Thank you.

Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Valier and The Might have been described as two wolves that agreed to adopt different playing styles, and I would agree with Rikae's sentiment that their interaction early on appears "scripted" as she put it. However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil http://forum.barrowdowns.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=537571#post537571)
Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Menel, I think you misunderstood. I stated that it seemed to me that she wanted to kill me because I suspect her on occasion and have been successful at getting her lynched in the past (for better or worse). You seem to have turned it around the other way...why?

...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?

Leaning Evil:
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Little Green
Valier
Rikae

[A Little Green]

Oh, so brutal.

I think I'm slightly confused with my own logic and not sure that I make sense at all, but I think that the combination of that "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" -comment and morm's guilt would be a very good reason for the wolves to try to get rid of Valier and thus I suspect morm. Well, Lommie, I'm not quite sure. Wouldn't that be a little too obvious?

At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones. True. But we shouldn't forget, either, what Valier wrote in her first post. It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued. That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

And, because Nerwen was innocent and because Lommy definitely is loud, I think I'll have to look through her posts again (that will be a lot of work, though, given how much she has posted... :D).

EDIT: x-ed with Fea

[mormegil]

Lommy and the other wolves you make me laugh! What a cheap attempt at a frame job if I've ever seen one. Let's see...take the person who received the second most votes and kill the person who had nothing more than a hunch and set her up as the seer. Not quite so clever and hopefully futile. The more I read Lommy the more I'm convinced of her guilt.

Of course, those who know me well know that this is a bluff I would try to pull off so there is a problem for many people. My guess is that voting will come down to either Lommy or me. I trust the village to look at things objectively and decide correct...of course, something drastic could happen that changes the course of the day but I doubt it.

Fea, the problem is I feel it far more likely that the wolves didn't mention Valier much if at all. That is the general Modus Operandi of first night kills.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm far from confident of morm's guilt, but he has taken the place of my top suspect, thanks to Valier's death.

Thing is, I really don't think morm would kill Valier. It makes a lot more sense that the wolves are trying to frame him. I know he'd sacrifice himself for a cause (he's done it before), but it just seems so outright stupid for a morm-wolf to kill a villager in the night who seemed to have dreamt about him. Except that it's such a transparent set up that I can't help but think maybe the wolves aren't really trying to frame him, they're just trying to make it look like they are?

In any case, I'm leaning toward morm's innocence. I just don't think he'd have killed Val, especially if she'd dreamt of him. It's just too self-incriminating.

[Rikae]

Now, if the wolves thought Valier might be the seer, then she can't have said anything that would contradict the actual roles to a large extent, ie she couldn't, for example, have strongly supported a wolf or blamed an innocent heavily, could she?

Oh couldn't she? In spite of the fact that it was Day 1? Really, Lommy, you know better than to say this. I suppose you're hoping that we will refrain from following day one suspicions now that two were proven innocent, or that this kill will look like an attempt to frame you, but yesterday you looked more furry to me with every post and this does not help.

[Meneltarmacil]

Valier's dead and innocent, eh? Why not me? I could have left cooking instructions and everything...

Being mistaken for the Seer does sound like a good reason for a wolf-kill, and actually would suggest that morm is not really a wolf. I doubt a morm-wolf would vote for somebody that he was trying to lynch last night.

Or would he? He could be trying to double-bluff us.

Regarding his attack on my reasoning, he does seem to have a valid point about me. I did misunderstand his "Valier wants to kill me because I might lynch her" statement.

He follows it up by asking me
When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?in response to a statement I made about how Valier was likely an innocent if morm was a wolf. One memorable ancestor of mine met his end by saying "X is probaby innocent since Y appears wolfish, but if Y turns out to be innocent upon lynching, X could be a wolf." That was perceived as an attempt to cover his wolfish tracks, and my family has had trouble avoiding the use of such statements, especially on Day 1.

Now morm seems to be asking me to make a similar statement regarding Valier. A smart move for a wolf, goading the innocent into making his family's classic slip-up and going to the gallows for it.

However, the last Night's activities do cast doubt on a morm-wolf scenario, so caution is necessary. Mostly, I just wanted to talk here so as not to be too silent. Talking often is always a good idea.

[Brinniel]

Well, while I do think there's a chance the wolves thought Valier a seer, I would find it strange that they would kill her if morm's a wolf. After all, if she had been revealed as a seer, her death would directly point to morm as she suspected him so strongly. The wolves should know that a were-morm would most likely be lynched if that situation were to occur. I suppose they could've been worried she would reveal or a second wolf was in danger of being dreamt of, too. If morm is furry, then by killing Valier (thinking she's a seer), he is practically choosing to sacrifice himself for the other wolves. Well, I suppose that's always a possibility.

But it's also possible the wolves killed Valier to simply incriminate morm. And probably more likely.

EDIT: X-ed with morm, Fea, Rikae, Menel (sorry, I'm multi-tasking)

[Aganzir]

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.
But wouldn't it be best to suspect those who look the most suspicious, in spite of whether they're loud or quiet? Of course the posts of the louder ones shouldn't be overlooked in order to concentrate on the quiet players, or vice versa, but what you said looks a bit too generalized...

Sorry if this post doesn't make sense. Something troubles me in Greenie's last post and I can't put my finger on it.

Mrs. Sackville-Baggins is off to sleep.

edit: xed since mormegil.

[Thinlómien]

Well, Lommie, I'm not quite sure. Wouldn't that be a little too obvious?
Well, possibly, but usually wolves are willing to sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer ie they do go after seer-like people even if it points back at them.

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

And, because Nerwen was innocent and because Lommy definitely is loud, I think I'll have to look through her posts again (that will be a lot of work, though, given how much she has posted... ).Well that is definitely quite wolfy a comment. I don't like how you pick Valier's comment about loud people and with no good reason (as far as I see) conclude that it is more important than her comment about quiet people. Seems like you're using her opinion to achieve your own ends, not to try to find the baddies. It's very suspicious in my opinion. I mean, Valier said two almost opposite things and I can't see why would anyone innocent just pick one of them and start accusing people because of it. For surely it's obvious that if Valier was both for lynching quiet and loud people, we can't really say which ones would consider her a bigger threat? And the convenient way how you move on from saying that loud people would have liked to kill Valier to suspecting me just seems all too wolvishly simplified and flowing to me.

So right now my main suspect is morm and another person I suspect to some extent is Little Green. Great. I find two people suspicious (no, I really don't find Brinn suspicious enough to be included) in a village of 16 living people (discounting myself) in which there are four wolves... :rolleyes:

EDIT: xed with morm, Fea, Rikae, Menel, Brinn and Agan.... huh.

[Meneltarmacil]

Double post, but this was something I'd thought of earlier:

A lot of Nerwen's "wolfish qualities" merely reflected that she was still a bit new to the game, particularly her need to actively defend herself against every perceived threat.

I'd like to add now that I suspect at least one wolf (probably just one, two at the very most) of voting for her, so checking the Nerwen-voters is probably a good idea.

EDIT: Cross-posted with everyone who posted after my earlier post today

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

NOTICE: cross-posted with all since Fea's long post "Everybody that directly mentioned her". I don't have time (or more, energy) to write another thing corresponding to the posts I x-posted with, but I will surely think about them till tomorrow. The main point of this is that the concerned person, morm, has posted meanwhile.

I don't have probably much to add to what was already said. I believe most of what was voiced makes sense, except for, as always, my wife, who is chatting here and making improbable theories instead of preparing something to eat for me :p (that's how it works at us Sackville-Bagginses). What I mean: Agan, the reasons you say could have been also reasons for her getting killed seem to be very, very weak points. I mean, seriously, I don't think anyone would kill Valier only because he considered her hunches dangerous or that he was a quiet one (that seems really silly to me because there were others speaking about quiet ones and, anyway, surely not ALL the wolves are quiet ones? Or what? Well they could be, but I believe everyone focuses, to a certain extent, on the quiet ones. At least in certain stage of the game it would come). These could have been secondary reasons, but if one of them were, there had to be also one primary reason that was not one of these two. And that I believe to be her comment:
But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.
As it was said. I think it's as simple as that: the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try). That seems the most probable to me. The question would be, what part in their reasoning plays morm - is he one of them? Could be: it's not very clever for a wolf to eliminate a person who seems to nail you, the more if he later shows to be a Seer who dreamt of you (which could very well be true), but still it's better to eliminate her when she speaks only about "hunches" and while she does not say yet "he is a wolf, because I dreamt of him". Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once. Third possibility, they simply did not care and the main thing was killing Valier. Fourth possibility, morm is one of them and he wanted to use this as a double-trick, as he could cover himself by saying "of course had I been a wolf I wouldn't have done that". But the latter seems the least probable to me, because no one says it would even work. It would be more like a random toss: okay, it will bring me in the spotlight, let's see if I can save myself or not.
But all of this is stemming from the basic idea, as I said, that Valier was killed because of being the Seer. It's not the only possibility, but for me really the most probable. I can't just imagine a clever wolf-morm saying "Arrgh! Valier voted me, we must kill her!" as the only reason. He would have three companions to calm him down, in any case.

So, as I said - I agree with the basic opinion that was outlined here, and for the finish before I go to sleep, I can say my feelings on the posts of the people who appeared here today this far. Lommy, especially her last (totally confused :p ) post strike me as very innocentish (if you are a wolf, Lommy, this far you are fooling me brilliantly). Sally makes me quite nervous with these cannibalistic notes, but she is always like that, as far as I noticed. The Might holds up to the image I have created of him, so even he looks more or less okay. Fea is helpful... very helpful. Does she do that always? :eek: Agan, last but not least, seems genuine, though... though. Her points that I criticised above play no role in that - they seem genuine. Simply wrong (from my POV) opinions. But the general way of the post can be also that a wolf has arrived here, realised where the wind is turning to and posted according to it. But who knows.

I'm leaving now. Bye.

[Volo]

Urgh, again.

2) At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones. There were others who were more than her for lynching the quiet, though, so I don't know.This explanation looks very very improbable, which is not saying that there can't be quiet Wolves around.

Lommy is once again hurrying to understand how the Wolves thought - like when she herself was a Wolf. But since the thought of Valier's assumed Seerdom also passes my head (like when Lommy was Wolf... :rolleyes: ) I won't condemn her for this.

I have two ideas about Valier's death, although I'll also take the other ideas brought up into account.

1. Valier was thought to be the Seer. (Assuming what the Wolves might have thought -) She might have felt danger during Day1 and already then decided to leave hints about her dream, as her vote for morm was a somewhat wierd and random-ish otherwise. I think that morm might be a Wolf if this is the case.

2. Valier was simply lynched for not leaving a trail and because at least one of the Wolves is sporty. Such players are in my opinion Lommy, Legate, Mac, morm, Fea (?), Brin, Kath, Kuru, Rikae (?) and Aganzir (?) (- questionmarks are signs of doubt if the players are "sporty" enough for the deed). In this case there's probably at least two Wolves in this mightily broad list - which can be reduced in time as new evidence arrives and don't mean everybody dying.


I'll go to sleep now, I have some ideas about who might be who, but I'm plain too tired to form a post about them.


EDIT: Xd with everything since morm

[Farael]

Here's a post I wrote last night, after reading all the posts from day 1 and knowing Nerwen's role. Coment on last night's kill coming up.

------------------------
A few thoughts on the happenings of yester-Day in the light of Nerwen's innocence. But first

This seems a bit vulgar of her. Everybody who's played with her she knows she truly has incredible hunches, but that kind of self-advertisement seems slightly furr (Refering to Valier talking about her hunches)
Loomy, are you kiddin' me? I've made a living out of boasting about my shrewd hunches... and being extremely loud and stubborn. I don't think that Valier is doing anything wrong, but not all of us are as analytical as you. Having said that, my comment was more a *gasp OMG* defense of Valier than an attack on you.

Dang man, did he just defend someone?? (I know, it's a moot point now)What's he going to do next? accuse someone on somewhat circumstancial evidence?


You bet.Would you expect any less from me?


There was definately a sense of Lommy going after Nerwen, pointing out her defensiveness and making her more defensive in the process. I've been at the other end of those sorts of tactics, and it's difficult to emerge unscathed. However, it could also be an instance of good wolf-hunting on Lommy's part. I found Nerwen suspicious to begin with, but at this point, it's difficult to sort out whether her continued suspicious behavior is provoked or real. Not just wolves, but some innocents, behave that way when backed into a corner.

Furthermore

Well, I think if I want Nerwen in the running, I have to do it myself, before adding a new candidate is totally out. If she turns out innocent, I'll definately be looking at Lommy as a possible wolf. As I said, I don't find The Might suspicious. I don't see any point in voting for Morm now - there just isn't enough to go on - and I think that knowing the role of Nerwen will shed more light on the Lommy question, while the opposite might not be true.

++Nerwen

Look how Rikae deflects the "Nerwen accusation" to Loomy... and yet, not only Rikae is the first one to vote for Nerwen... she's the one to start the accusations!!!

To me, that sounds like a very clever tactic... offer the bait, and if an eager fish bites on it let them run free... they'll look suspicious and thus you not only kill an ordo, but you make another ordo look bad. Win-win situation anyone?

Rikae's accusation of Nerwen is here
Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Now, a word of caution should be said

Waaaaa? First he defended someone, now he's going to flip-flop within his very first post?

I've played in the past with Rikae and disliked her (game-wise, of course) from Day 1, even though I think she was an ordo (can't quite recall). She is very agressive (again, game-wise) and not afraid to point fingers, she went at me with a vengeance that one game!!

However, that's EXACTLY why I suspect her right now. When she started suspecting Nerwen she seemed a little off, but then most people do... but when she shifted the accusations on to Loomy, even though Rikae had started them herself, she looked wolfish. After all, in the past, she's never been afraid to accuse someone!

And neither have I. She's a wolf, or I'll eat my two feet!!

--Farael Twofoot.

P.S: It's a shame that I missed day 1... one of my characters on the LoTR MMORPG is called Folco Twofoot and he's the loveliest of hobbits, I meant to post in-character as him but I never had a chance.

P.P.S: Since Fea mentioned that she did the same thing The Might did when she was guilty, I should mention that I reacted the exact same way one time I was being accused and I was an ordo. I just got frustrated that no-one would listen. I don't think his behaviour is particularly fishy, but it's not a "get out of jail free" card either. Veteran players who have played with me know that I've proven once and again that you can say just about any insanity and go unlynched, while you can say all the right things and gather a lot of suspicion.

That's why I'm not afraid of speaking my mind. Not to mention that The Might does have a point... Werewolf HAS gotten formulaic, while analysis are useful sometimes, they also bog down the game IMO. It's not a basis for suspecting people, as it has become "good manners" to do long, analytical posts where you have tons of quotes and you look at the whole village all at once.

But in my opinion, those posts are useless at this stage of the game.

FIrst of all, we have a near-full complement of villagers, but little hard information to go by. Hard information being:
-Voting patterns
-A dead wolf to analyze his behaviour towards certain people
-A revelation by a Seer

Therefore, I find it more useful in the first few days to go out there and cause a reaction. If everyone is reacting to everyone else, then when we finally nail a wolf (and it will happen) we'll have hard data (the way the wolf acted/reacted towards others). If all we do are long lists that have much content but little reaction and are very well thought-out, we have no evidence.

Why? because reactions are often less premeditated than analysis posts, and therefore more likely to contain a little slip of the furry tounge. Conversely, while writing an analysis, a wolf may look ten times over for those "red flags" that we are all used to noticing. So he posts a red-flag free, seemingly helpful analysis and who's going to suspect him for it? Sure, he might get it all wrong, but don't we all?...


Wow, that's a lot of text... but I'd like to go back to my accusation. Rikae looks suspicious, as she started the accusations against Nerwen, she was the first one to vote for Nerwen and yet she made it look as if it was Loomy who was agressively going after Nerwen. Fishy Fishy Furry.

Edit: Crossed with everyone after FEa's long post of everyone who mentioned VAlier

[Thinlómien]

Oh couldn't she? In spite of the fact that it was Day 1? Really, Lommy, you know better than to say this. I suppose you're hoping that we will refrain from following day one suspicions now that two were proven innocent, or that this kill will look like an attempt to frame you, but yesterday you looked more furry to me with every post and this does not help.What? An attempt to frame me? How? I'm really not following your logic.

What I meant by that strongly suspect-comment was that surely someone who says "I'm quite confident x is innocent" doesn't seem very seerish to wolves if x is one of them? Or it doesn't at least make them think the someone's a seer in the first place. I mean, seers tend to be careful with their suspicions because if they die, they don't want their words to be misinterpreted. And I'd like to add that I said it all depends on the actual wording. You're overlooking that part of my post a bit too happily.

I think it is possible that a partial reason to Valier's death was that the wolves wanted to frame morm, but that creates more questions than it answers to. Why did the wolves choose to make a frame-up kill? It is quite rare, after all. Maybe to confuse us just because of that, but wouldn't they have rather gone after seer (or ranger) -looking people? And if the wolves really chose to frame somebody, why did they pick morm?

EDIT: xed with everybody since my last post

[Kath]

I must admit I have skimmed the narration, I will have to go back in a bit and see what all the nastiness was about.

But Valier dead. I find myself agreeing with those who think her death may have been due to the wolves thinking she was the Seer. I don't really recall Valier making such a thing of the fact that she can catch people on hunches so early on in the past, and I think it quite possible that the wolves thought she was hiding her Seerness behind those feelings. Of course, it is also entirely possible that they killed her off because they know how dangerous a player she can be, but if you're looking for Seer hints on the first Night you've a chance to, I'd say Valier left some accidental ones.

However, as it happens the wolves were, thankfully, wrong, and that brings me to a point from toDay.

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.
That's from Greenie. It was a reply to something Valier had said, but while it looks like a disagreement it is actually an agreement to what our now departed friend said, so I must say that I don't understand the comment. In addition, it's an incredibly generalised statement about something that was argued yesterDay. It seems like Greenie is trying to take us back to yesterDay's arguments and that's strange.

What else has been happening? Oh yes, Lommy is trying to work out whether this is a frame up or a clever double bluff for morm. Well, morm was a little shouty in reply but that is actually pretty understandable given that Lommy practically gave him no way out! Having said that though, I'm pretty used to Lommy trying out every available situation in one post so I'm thinking she's innocent at the moment. morm too for that matter, as he reacted normally rather than defensively to being accused, at least to my mind.

Fea, argh! Such loooong posts to go through, and as yet no comment on them. Getting everything together is certainly helpful, but I'd like some of her own words as well.

Hmm, think I'd better stop as I believe I have cross-posted with a LOT of people ... I can see the emails coming through. Plus, I'm kinda out of thoughts for a bit.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, there's something I hadn't noticed, Farael. Thank you for bringing that to our attention.

I think we may have our Nerwen-voter wolf. Rikae's frequent accusations of her weren't good to begin with, but pinning the blame on someone else is worse.

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fea, argh! Such loooong posts to go through, and as yet no comment on them. Getting everything together is certainly helpful, but I'd like some of her own words as well.

I have to work tonight, so I tried to schedule out what I was doing so that I wouldn't have to leave in the middle of anything. So I got together all the information I wanted to look at, and once I'm at work I'll look at it.

So you'll get some of my own words. Pinkie promise.

[Volo]

Ok, more stuff - quickly:

1. I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.


2. Rikae, why did you drop your style (voted self on Day1 in her first post, was it?) from the preveous game so totally and completely? Last game you seemed to regard Day1 as a waste of time and now you're so certain that the Wolves can be found by analysis already on Day1. This is just a questing, it has been bothering me.


3. Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon. I wouldn't concentrate on her too much toDay. Basicly because I don't suspect her a lot. Post #126 seems genuine at the very least, a Wolf wouldn't have phrased her words so, unless Lommy did a very smart bluff on purpose.


X:d with everything since my preveous post. Now I'm totally offline.

[Farael]

I have little to add about today's happenings. I still don't like Rikae (game-wise), Loomy is looking a little flip-floppy... as usual, so no problem there :p... and Morm's reaction was expectable.

About Valier's death, I'd think that the wolves found an easy target that made a weird seer-like comment and figured that it was a win-win situation. If they nailed the Seer great, if not it'd toss the village in for a spin.

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I was here reading but as I said, I don't have energy to write anything new, just a conclusion: after all I have read, up to Volo's post now above me*, I still stand behind all I said in my post, so it's still valid. These are my last words for now and let me only say that morm's reply, though very, how to say that, intelligent-looking, made me think more that he indeed can be a part of the wolf-clan, prepared to create havoc centered on him with the result left to destiny, either he survives or heroically dies for the pack. It's, let's say, 60% now for me that it is like that (before, it was 50-50 for me whether he is or is not). That's the only change.

*Oh, and yes, I didn't read Farael as it seems to open a whole new topic (also from a totally "new" person), I will do so tomorrow.

Really leaving. Bye.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with Farael. What he says more or less accords to what I think - as you can read above in my post. I like this post of him. Will read the long one later. REALLY leaving. Bye. :)

[A Little Green]

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.
Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it :D

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up :)

[Brinniel]

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

And then there's the discussion of Rikae being furry, which I think is a possibility. Her comments towards Lommy are very accusing and threatening (well, so are morm's but his are more defensive). She could easily be setting up a second lynch candidate here, seeing she's already getting some support. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, Lommy must be guilty, right? Not necessarily. But that might be what the wolves want us to think. I disagree with what Lommy says; I don't think Valier's death should be the main reason to suspect morm. But I'm not sure her weird analysis makes her wolvish- in fact, what she says is almost too attention grabbing and suspicious looking to belong to that of someone furry.

P.S. I second Green's question. What do you mean by "sporty," Volo? That word can hold a lot of different meanings, I think.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Post 140 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=537684&postcount=140). My post.

The one where I had a list of each of Valier's posts.

I accidentally hit 'edit' instead of quote when I went to post my opinions.

And then when I finished I hit save.

So I just deleted that post by accident, replacing it with


Why I think Val was killed (based on her posts)
Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.


I suck.

[Thinlómien]

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up Yes, do go away and leave the computer to me... mwahahahaa... :D And when you come back tomorrow, please explain that loud-thing. I'd be interested to hear your answer.

Farael has a very good point against Rikae. After she had talked about my and Nerwen's "strife" and quite clearly argued against me, she suddenly voted Nerwen. I was quite surprised as I had thought she'd vote me. Now that you brought that weird thing up again, I really think I should have a better look at Rikae for there's certainly something odd about her.

All in all, Farael seems less insane than normal ;), actually, he's making very much sense, and I don't know if it should make me feel worried or comfortable, but I'm inclined to think him innocent.

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.The idea of a conspiracy sounds a bit far-fetched, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if both of them turned out to be wolves. I need to think more about this...

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.Now that is a bit faulty matemathics. For surely we don't have just one wolf? So it's 4/18 = 2/9 chance. :)

edit: xed with Brinn and Fea

[satansaloser2005]

I know how you feel Fea. I did that last game and instead of adding a sentence to my post, I erased the original content. I felt so stupid.

And again just now when I went to hit submit and instead refreshed, deleting my entire post. So this is the short and sweet version of my post.

Brinn and Fea, I concur. I think the wolves may have interpreted Valier's post as a hint at her being the seer, and thus decided to kill her in hopes of getting the seer. Fortunately it didn't work, but I can easily see how they could come to that conclusion.

Secondly I think that there are three possible answers to how Morm fits into last night's kill:
A: Morm is a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and thought perhaps she dreamed of Morm. Thus they needed to shut her up. This could be a double bluff by the wolves, looking like they're framing Morm but actually not, which also constitutes a risk on their part that Morm will be found out and killed.
B: Morm is not a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and wanted to shut her up before she dreamed of any of them. This is, as has been discussed by Lommy and others, a frame job on Morm by the actual werewolves.
C: Morm's wolfishness is irrelevant. The wolves picked Valier completely randomly.



I don't know which option it is though, that's the tough part. :S

[Kath]

Hmm, this stuff about Rikae looks interesting. I'm certainly more taken with it than the idea that morm is a wolf, which seems a bit forced.

But what I haven't done at all is really look at what's been happening to get it clear in my own head, so you're free to ignore the next couple of lists because really it's for my own benefit!

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo

The Might voting himself, I don't like it. He saw Rikae do it last game, he knows there are a bunch of players from that game in this one who lynched her and felt bad about having done it based on her odd Day 1 behaviour. He could well be a wolf playing a very bold game.

I'm not keen on morm's reply vote for Valier either. He himself admits it was a bit knee-jerk.

Hmm, the placement of Brinn's vote could be a bit suspicious. morm's on 3 and she votes for the candidate a lot of people are discussing, meaning it's quite likely the rest of the village would follow. Could be a wolf saving a fellow wolf there.

Greenie, why would Nerwen's innocence make Lommy look guilty?

So, what am I thinking?

Guilty:
Greenie
The Might
Brinn
morm

Innocent:
Everyone else (it's a long list!).

There's not much reasoning behind that I know, I'm just trying to get things laid out a bit.

EDIT: Ooh! I thought I accidentally posted this half done earlier but I must have put that ring in instead. :D

[satansaloser2005]

I'm sorry I'm having to vote so early, but I have to attend our winter show tonight and help take down the set and everything so I don't know if I'll post when I get back or not. And tomorrow I'll be at church and at my house (no internet there sadly) so the possibility of me voting/posting tomorrow (real time of course) is slim. So I'm going with my gut again....

++Morm




Not completely sure about this, but Morm rubs me the wrong way wolf-wise, so I'll take a chance on it.

[Rikae]

Yes, Mr. Twofeet, I absolutely started the accusations against Nerwen, and yes indeed, I think that the way Lommy followed those suspicions looked wolfish. First suspicions with little to go on are frequently more revealing by the reactions of others than in themselves (Roa-hunter and my grandmother, a ranger, once used that tactic to catch a wolf.) If there had been retractable votes, I might have even switched votes to Lommy late in the day -- then again, maybe not, as I'm afraid I'm a bit biased toward people I've played many games with before (gasp!)
I simply have the feeling that she jumped on a possible bandwagon too quickly, and then, when Nerwen was the top candidate, washed her paws of the matter with all that "I have a bad feeling..." business.

Volo, you seem to have completely misinterpreted my suicide in the last game. It meant the opposite of what you think it did.

Well, my top suspect is Lommy, and that's that. Farael is right - we should not suspect him, because he always behaves this way. Thank you for pointing that out to us, Farael. ;)

Oh, I would also like to say this: I'm no longer so sure about Macalaure.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

[Rikae]

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.


I think it's absolutely possible. I find it very odd indeed that people have concocted this whole story of Morm-framing or of Valier seeming to have been "on to" something, when, had she been a seer, she would only have known one role (if she would have known that -- do seers get night 1 dreams in this game?)

[Rikae]

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

Well, this might not be entirely fair, but last time he was a wolf (which I found out after I was dead), I told him that the reason he tends to be caught when he's a baddie is that he is too tentative then, whereas innocent Mac is usually very decisive with his suspicions. Yesterday he seemed almost gloating over my calling him innocent, and then he went after Volo in a way that seems almost like a caricature of innocent-Mac.

However, that only raises doubts in my mind, not actual suspicion at this point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hmm. I've read everything, and not only has there been a lot of discussion on whether or not mormegil is a wolf based on the death of Valier, mormegil's post (posts? I think I only saw one.) seems... off, to me. Desperate, maybe, although I could also read it as a frustrated ordo.

Like I say, I've read everything, and no one particularly sticks out in my mind but Volo. I think I'll go back and look at his posts in general.

[mormegil]

I'm neither frustrated nor desperate. I honestly find it comical that, when Valier was killed, Lommy came on to the scene seemingly screaming that Morm must be guilty! It's comical to me in a sardonic way because the wolves are laughing to themselves right now because the whole day, up to this point, has been spent almost exclusively spent in talking about me. Now I normally love attention but it's rather unproductive at hw much I am getting today. Almost no other possibilities are being explored. I am glad to see that some are looking at others and that makes me think of those (Farael for example) favorably.

Also, what Farael says about Lommy being her normal flip-floppy self is sadly true and that alone is one of the main reasons I always seem to suspect her...so while I still suspect her I must take preconceived notions about her into consideration.

It's also disappointing that nobody has really discussed the votes from yesterday.

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo

I would suggest that likely there were two wolves in the Nerwen grouping and two out of that grouping. Please understand my point of view, I know that I'm innocent so I base my thoughts upon that. I would think that at least one of the other wolves voted for me and notably one innocent was in the voting for me. Also one innocent voted for Lommy.

So, I have a little idea, I think it's likely that there are two wolves amongst those that didn't vote for Nerwen as it seems unlikely that all four would vote for her. Nicely, two known innocents were not in the voting for Nerwen. That leaves:

Kath
The Might
Sally
Fea
Menel
Morm
Volo

I guess that this is assuming that all four wolves voted...who didn't vote? Shasta and who?

Out of those seven above Kath and The Might seem innocent enough right now though I still don't understand The Might's self-vote yesterday. Thinking again on it...I remember him saying something like "well since everybody suspects me anyway" and then became defensive and voted for himself. I dont' remember him being suspected by everyone so this seemed odd. I will add him to my suspect list. I don't understand Sally and her logic. Fea seems a bit more lost than normal. Menel is one that I never get a good read on and I tend to suspect him based on style of play, similar to Lommy. Volo doesn't sit right with me....In conclusion Sally, Volo and Menel are the most likely wolves our of those seven.

What has been said about Rikae has given me some thought and I am now second guessing my first day innocent card I gave her. I'm not sure who I will vote for and when. I seem to be the only one around and due to Time Zone people won't be one for a while so there won't be much new to review...anyway hopefully tomorrow morning (for me) I will have a better idea.

Edit: Legate was the other one that didn't vote...those that don't vote are highly suspicious in my mind. Enough no votes makes one lynchable in my mind.

[Farael]

Does anyone else find Rikae's answer to my accusation, and her veiled threat (she remarks that I mentioned I am acting the way I usually act) a little suspicious?

True, it's in keeping with her agressive game-persona, but it seems rather flimsy... all this busines about switching her vote to Loomy if retractable votes were allowed sounds like an useless "what if" scenario.

What if's are worth nothing, since it's the word of someone who may very well be a wolf.
First suspicions with little to go on are frequently more revealing by the reactions of others than in themselves

That is nice and dandy, however you voted for Nerwen in a game in which you KNEW there were no retractable votes. Your half-baked excuse of what-if is not really doing it for me.

I don't know if I'll be back in time tomorrow for a vote, and I don't quite want to suffer modfire, therefore I have to vote now.

++Rikae

If she turns out to be a wolf, look at Brinniel too... i can't put my finger on it, but there's something about the way they casualy interact without really getting involved with one another that seems off.... they don't quite agree, but they don't quite disagree either... therefore they can always distance themselves from one another at a later point, but it won't look as if they are avoiding each other, which would be a red-flag.

I hope that last paragraph made sense... but do look at Rikae-Brinniel interactions.

[Farael]

To add on my previous remark that Rikae VOTED for Nerwen, I'd like to add this.
Well, I think if I want Nerwen in the running, I have to do it myself, before adding a new candidate is totally out.

So not only she voted for Nerwen, she WANTED Nerwen in the mix.

[Brinniel]

Umm...Farael, Rikae has withdrawn from the game...

Rikae was actually my primary suspect, but now that she's withdrawn it seems it would be pointless to look any further at her right now. We'll just have to wait until the end of the Day and see whether she is an innocent or wolf.

Anyways, the one other vote has been for morm, who I'm still not convinced is guilty. I need to go back and take a better look at everyone's posts. I admit I haven't done that yet.

[Farael]

Yes, I just noticed Rikae left the game... for some reason that thread appeared as if it had no new replies when I checked the forums.

Guess it's all moot.

Noggie I hope I don't suffer mod-fire if I don't vote today, but I have nothing to go on with and I am not sure if I'll be back before the deadline. I just didn't see Rikae's notice and right now I have nothing else to go on with.

[Farael]

Double-posting 'cos I can't seem to get my thought straight :p

I really don't like this talk about Morm... I'm not saying he's not a wolf, but it's not good to be so focused on one person, or one situation. Even if Morm IS a wolf, we still have three others to catch... let's not forget about Morm, but let's try to come up with other possibilities. IF we all gang up on Morm, whether correctly orn ot, the wolves will join the massive band-wagon and there'll be less to work with for tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Noggie I hope I don't suffer mod-fire if I don't vote today, but I have nothing to go on with and I am not sure if I'll be back before the deadline. I just didn't see Rikae's notice and right now I have nothing else to go on with.Don't worry Farael. I'll count your vote on Rikae as it's after all your vote, no problem! :)

I'd say I would have more of a problem if you asked a permission to retract that one... (in this situation I'd probably grant it but anyway)

[satansaloser2005]

Also, what Farael says about Lommy being her normal flip-floppy self is sadly true and that alone is one of the main reasons I always seem to suspect her...so while I still suspect her I must take preconceived notions about her into consideration.

Flip-flopping may be suspicious, but on the first or second day it's not surprising, as you really don't have much to go on.

It's also disappointing that nobody has really discussed the votes from yesterday.

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo


We did discuss this. Not a lot, but a bit. The day's not over, so give everyone a little time to mull things over. Although I was admittedly surprised to come back and see Nerwen as the lynchee. Definitely not what I expected, and if Morm does indeed to turn out to be a wolf I'll be giving Nerwen's voters a closer look.

Nicely, two known innocents were not in the voting for Nerwen.

I'm tired so I must have missed it. Known innocents? Where are our known innocents? Unless you mean the two deceased villagers of course, which could have been your intention. Just explain that a bit more please. :)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's what I got out of it, Sally; Neither Valier nor Nerwen were in the voting for... well... Nerwen. I guess that sort of makes sense, doesn't it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I'm not going to be around at the deadline tomorrow, so here's my (albeit short) list.

Leaning Innocent:

Kath
Sally
The Might

Leaning Suspicious:

Legate
Volo
Morm

Can't get a read on:

Everyone else

There's one vote placed for Morm already, and since many more votes are going to be coming anyway, I'll go with my top suspect at the moment:

++ Volo

Good night everyone.

[Thinlómien]

Morm's long post (#175) made me feel much better about him. His calmness, his decreased aggression towards me and his vote-analysis seem clearly the most innocentish stuff that has come out of his keyboard. Even though I know a good wolf is capable of writing a post like that and I know morm's capable of being a good wolf, I'm less sure about morm's guilt. I know it is perfectly possible that the wolves killed Valier even if morm wasn't a wolf, but I still think it a bit more credible that morm's wovisness would be a part of the reasons they ended up killing Valier.

And morm, Legate did vote:
Okay, from the above, it looks like not in the slightest problematic fifty or seventy votes for Nerwen, so I am not afraid any longer to vote for her. Even if all of those who said that were wolves and change their votes, well, at least we will know them all toMorrow. To avoid further confusion,

++Nerwen

I think I need to reread again and pay extra attention to morm's posts and yesterday's votes and those I think are slipping under my radar, ie Sally, Shasta, Kath and Kuru.

EDIT: xed with Shasta's two posts

[Aganzir]

Legate dear, that's definitely not how it works at us. But if you are very hungry, well, maybe you can find something from a certain hobbit's place... :p

I dislike the way Lommy was immediately saying that Valier was probably killed because she left seer hints. While I agree it sounds the most probable, I think we should not ignore other things that might have contributed to her death, like Lommy seemed to be trying to do.

Menel is making me a bit nervous, mainly because of that "why wasn't I killed during the Night?" attitude. I understand if he's used to getting killed early, but the butter thing and "why not me?"... As if he was trying to convince everybody how surprised even he himself was that he wasn't killed.
Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?
A good question and worth asking. But. It reminds me of
I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Quote:
Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.
It could be interpreted as Menel-wolf having read the thread well and "doing the dirty work" on behalf of his fellow-wolf.

The wolves indeed chose their kill well if we're going to argue the whole day about if Valier's death points at morm's guilt or innocence, the wolves trying to frame him or whatever. It's easy to appear helpful with long posts speculating why a morm-wolf would or would not have killed Valier, and that makes me a little wary about Brinniel, Fea and Volo who did practically nothing else.

I guess that this is assuming that all four wolves voted...who didn't vote? Shasta and who?
Actually Farael was the other who didn't vote. Legate voted for Nerwen.

edit: xed with two Shastas and a Lommy

[Thinlómien]

My thoughts on you others come here. I only had time to reread yesterDay's posts, though.

Innocentish
Volo - He makes sense. I think he raises arguments a wolf wouldn't raise and his tone and suspicions seem genuine.
Macalaure - Quite often (or almost always) when he's a wolf he seems somewhat tense and un-relaxed and there's something edgy in his manner. All that is missing this time. If Rikae proves to be a wolf, I'd be quite confident he's innocent: she treats him like she would not treat a fellow wolf. (No time to elaborate on that right now. I'll do it later, if Rikae proves to be a wolf.)
Farael - Reasonable and innocently calm, raises good points and jokes in an innocentish manner. Right now, I have no reason to be troubled by him.

A tiny bit innocent-ish
Legate of Amon Lanc - There's nothing in his posts that seems particularly suspicious to me. His relaxed, calm and somewhat joking manner seems quite genuinely innocentish. Why he doesn't belong to the "innocentish" category, though, is that I have a nagging bad feeling that he really isn't as innocent as he seems.
Shastanis Althreduin - Now there is definitely not much to go on, but I doubt he would be that uninvolved as a wolf. There's nothing that'd make my wolf-spotting radar beep in his posts or manner. I think I need to see more of his posts to be surer, though.

Gray zone
Feanor of the Peredhil - There really isn't much to go on. She seems somehwat distant, playful and rational all the same time and I really can't say anything about her before she makes the post about her feelings she promised to make.
Aganzir - Generally, she feels quite rational and sincere, but she makes some vague comments like "Considering Valier herself, she looks quite neutral to me. However, if a certain person(s) turned out to be a wolf, I'd look at her very carefully" and odd comments like that I seem to be protecting and warning Greenie.
Meneltarmacil - He seems quite sincere and doesn't send out the wolvish vibe he usually does as a wolf. On the other hand, I really don't like he repeatedly talks about the wolves eating him. If he had said it once, I would have no issue with it, but twice and with such an overreacting tone is a bit too much for me to overlook.
Kath - Otherwise, she seems and feels innocentish, but I really don't like her yesterday's vote. It seems a bit forced.

Slightly suspicious
Satansaloser2005 - Now, she seems be just joke and be in-character while making a few serious points, just enough to maintain a presence. I don't like some of her comments like "By the way, great posts today!". I don't know, I really can't reason this very much but I have a slight bad feeling about her: I'll be watching her more closely.
Brinniel - Her first post still strikes me as wolvish. Her other posts could be either way.
The Might - The more I think of it, the less I like his self-vote. It seems like something he would have done as a wolf (since Rikae did it as an innocent in the last game). Also, his notable lack of suspicions seems a bit wolvish too - of course it's difficult for a wolf to come up with suspicions and newbie wolves often make the mistake here. All in all, I'm not very convinced of his guilt, though. He needs to be watched.
Kuruharan - He has chosen a playing style that is very convenient for a wolf. There's something suspicious in his overall tone and I can't really see why did he vote Nerwen, not me, yesterDay. There was no threat of a double-lynch in the air anymore when he voted, or so I see it.

Suspicious
Mormegil - Everything that I've said of him and Valier's death. His manner is somewhat suspicious as well (but I don't know if anyone should take that as a serious argument from me as I always seem to find his manner suspicious).
A Little Green - Like I said, I don't like the tone of her first few posts and her latest seemed quite wolvish. There's something very fishy in her overall manner.

It is quite useless to read and make conclusions of Rikae's posts as her role is to be revealed soon.

EDIT: xed with Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmmmmmmm. I have read everything but I probably don't have anything constructive to add to the discussion right now. The best thing I can do now is to ventilate the thoughts that go through my mind on everyone:

GREEN ZONE

Farael
Lommy
Volo

YELLOW ZONE

Brinniel - like I said earlier, seems okay. Though in the last game, she seemed okay to me and was a wolf. In fact, I got similar feelings about her as I get now. But there is nothing more to support the fact.
Fea - seems trying to look helpful or simply does what she does, and there is nothing particularly suspicious about her now.
LG, though the more I read the more I am getting paranoid about her. But that's not my fault, that's how some others still speak about her...
Macalaure - where is he, anyway?
Shasta. There is very little to be gathered about him. A little out-of-game note: I once again realised that I am thinking of him as about female. And that goes on and on even though I repeatedly noticed that and tried to do something with that in about four or more earlier games. Please Shasta, do you mind if I call you differently, because Shasta and Shastanis still both seem like female names to me. Could I, for my personal purpose, call you either Shastan or Shast? I know it both sounds horrible, but it will help me much. And you can pick the one you like better :D

ORANGE ZONE

My lovely wife Ah heck, she's in fact almost in the yellow zone, just there is something in the way she posts... that makes me feel uncomfortable.
Kath makes me feel somewhat uneasy.
Kuru. My suspicion about him from tomorrow still lasts. Where is he toDay?
Meneltarmacil - as it was mentioned here, maybe he's a little overdoing that with his "Number five is still alive!" comments.
Mormegil Harrybelly - like I said, it's 60:40 now with him that he may be a wolf.
The Might I just made an interesting theory on what behavior he could have adopted had he been a wolf. It was based on the observation of his behavior in the last game. I'd say a wolf-Might could have picked a good innocent horse and follow his judgements, no one could blame him ("I am a newbie and I am not sure, so I follow other people whom I consider wise"). Actually, he said that in one of his first posts, but seemingly he does not do that. Maybe his hope was ruined by my negative response. Nevertheless, it's a theory I thought of when trying to imagine a wolf-Might.
Sally Like I said in my first post toDay.


RED ZONE

More or less waiting to be filled with the person who I am going to vote for.


And Morm, I did vote. I see some kind souls even explained that for me already... But whatever, seems to me that it was not your fault but probably Kath's, since she did not, for whatever reason, place my name in the list of voters, and it looks like you used the list of votes she placed in her post, right? Anyway, here you can see that it's better to see to everything yourselves and not just copy what others post.

[Macalaure]

I have little time now, so here I my thoughts about the most important matters, I think. I have only skimmed today's post so far. I'll be there starting a few hours before the deadline.


1. Why Valier:

1.1. The wolves thought Valier was the seer

1.1.1. morm is a wolf
In that case, they would have killed Valier, because no possible seer should be left alive from a wolvish perspective. They would have sacrificed morm without a second thought, and then morm would be here telling us it was a frame and pointing out its weakness.

1.1.2. morm is no wolf
Same as above, but now they might have had a vague hope people might turn against mormegil.

1.2. The wolves didn't think Valier was the seer

1.2.1. They picked her because she left no tracks to them.
I can't think this is the case. There were better options for that purpose that were not suspected by so many.

1.2.2. They picked her because she is a strong player who was yet undangerous
Possible, but this would mean that all other players who are considered to be strong were on the right track to some degree. Given the way the votes for Nerwen went, I'd say this is unlikely.

1.2.3. They tried to frame morm
I don't think so, because, as morm pointed out, it's a very weak frame.

1.3. Conclusion: I think they thought Valier to be the seer. There seems to be no indication to whether morm is a wolf or not. However, the way he made fun of the possibility that it was a frame seems odd to me. In fact, Lommy's accusation and morm's response to it give me a slight furry-furry taste.


2. The votes

2.1. I said it yesterday and I say it today: I don't like Kath's vote for TM.
2.2. The Might's intention to find out whether a self-vote would have the same effect it had on Rikae in a village of yore makes him look suspicious. It would be a good wolf-survival-tactic.
2.3. Sally votes morm due to a hunch. She adds a fourth name, which would only make sense for a wolf-Sally if neither Lommy nor TM are wolves.
2.4. morm vote for Valier would make sense for both cases, evil and good morm.
2.5. Fea adds a vote to morm. This probably rules out the possibility of both of them being wolves
2.6. Brinn's vote keeps Nerwen in the run. A good move for a wolf if all the others candidates were innocent - or all guilty, but that's unlikely.

Then Kuru and I make comments about a double-lynch and then people start announcing their votes. In hindsight, it was a bad idea to make them do this. From this point on, It was way too easy to hide behind Nerwen-votes (Legate, Lommy, Aganzir, A Little Green and me)

2.7. Of these four, Legate's vote seems most suspicious for me. His vote (after the announcements) manifests the inevitable outcome. It's suspicious how, after seeing many options in his posts before, he turns towards Nerwen very quickly at this point - no longer looking at alternative options any more.
2.8. If Volo is honest about not reading page 3, then his vote for Valier seems innocent. But that's an "if" in there.
2.9. Aganzir and I cross-vote for Nerwen. After Legate's vote, the path to go for the wolves was clear. For both of us this would have been an easy vote if one of us was a wolf.
2.10. Menel votes for morm in a confused manner. Looks innocent.
2.11. A Little Green (are we sure we want to shorten this to Green or Greenie?) adds her vote for Nerwen. Suspicious.

Now Legate pops in with a reminder about double-lynchs that seems overdone. So many people have announced their votes that there was no real risk of a double-lynch anymore. I find this comment very suspicious as it seems to desire to mislead the remaining voters.

2.12. Lommy votes for Nerwen and I agree that this looks suspicious because of her "I hope she's not an ordo". False tears?
2.13. Kuru adds the last one. He's the only one not to announce his vote, which one could interpret in evil and in good ways.
2.14. Non-voters: Shasta and Farael.


Suspicions basing solely on these comments:

Suspicious: Lommy, Legate, morm

A Little Suspicious: Aganzir, The Might, A Little Green, Kath

Unknown: Vo?o (no typo ;)), Fea, Sally, Farael, Shasta

Innocentish: Menel, Brinn, Kuru


More later.

[A Little Green]

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet. I suppose I'll have to explain that comment a little. What I meant by that was more a response to Aganzir's At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones. -point. I wanted to point out that Valier also said that it is easier for a wolf to hide behind being loud.
But wouldn't it be best to suspect those who look the most suspicious, in spite of whether they're loud or quiet? Of course. I agree that my comment is somewhat generalised. I hope no one seriously thinks I am counting the posts by everyone with a calculator and vote for the one with the biggest amount of posts. :D

Greenie, why would Nerwen's innocence make Lommy look guilty? I never said guilty. What I said was more like "I'll have to look through her posts again". What I meant was that I'd have to check through her posts, especially those concerning Nerwen, and see if there is anything in there that hints to her actually knowing Nerwen was innocent all the time. That goes of course for the other Nerwen-voters as well.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?
A good question and worth asking. But. It reminds me of
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuru
I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Quote:
Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.
It could be interpreted as Menel-wolf having read the thread well and "doing the dirty work" on behalf of his fellow-wolf. Sorry Agan, but I don't quite follow your logic there.

Well, possibly, but usually wolves are willing to sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer ie they do go after seer-like people even if it points back at them. You see, Lommy, as it happens I have no idea of what wolves "usually" do. Your comment seems somewhat sensible, though.

Mormegil - Everything that I've said of him and Valier's death. His manner is somewhat suspicious as well (but I don't know if anyone should take that as a serious argument from me as I always seem to find his manner suspicious). PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS? :eek: I still don't get it, despite the various arguments made on a connection between Valier's death and morm's guilt. Also, I don't know if this is an ordinary Lommy flip-flop, but...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green
Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.
I agree. While he definitely doesn't glow with the light of innocence, he does not seem overtly hairy either. Lommy, what made you suddenly think morm's manner as suspicious?

Oh dear, this is so complicated. I think I will read through the entire thread and write more after that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.

[Brinniel]

I just spent several hours taking 20+ pages of notes (and now probably won't be going to bed), so now I'm going to post these notes (though more briefly), which are basically summaries of what everyone has said (minus less important points) along with my thoughts (in italics).

I'm a bit exhausted, so hopefully my thoughts won't be too unclear and let me know if I misinterpreted anything. Btw, I'm not analysing every detail because that's just too lengthy. Anyways, beware of flood posting...I'm about to do it:

Analysis of Volo:

Day 1

#13: States quiet will probably be lynched Day 1 or 2. He'd rather lynch quiet ones over the loud ones if he has no good suspicions.

#39: Clarifies that if a loud ordo is lynched Day 1, a quiet will be lynched Day 2 because there's more to analyse about louder players on Day 3. Thinks Legate is too friendly.

#42: Disagrees with Fea: "Day 1s are not for outright assuming that random votes are the best solution"

#49: Wonders if Legate has "waterproof points" or "holds the voice of Saruman." In a response to Legate's comment, he considers voting Valier to see what she is (in the possibility that Green might be evil too, I think)

#116: Votes Valier. Explains in #118 that her vote was too desparate.

#129:Makes a list:
Leaning Good: Lommy, Menel, Mac, Might, Morm
Neutral: Aganzir, Fea, Brinn, Sally, Farael, Shasta, Kuru, Kath, Nerwen
Leaning Evil: Legate, Green, Valier, Rikae

Notes: My suspicions on him yesterDay were more of a hunch than anything. I remember finding his first posts confusing, then he goes back and explains. While Volo seems to suspect Legate so much, he seems to begin considering voting Valier based on a comment he made ("*Notes down: if she [Green] and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move."). I find it a bit strange that while he finds Legate worrisome, he still seems to follow his word.

Day 2

#154: Lommy is hurrying to understand the wolves- similar to what she did when she was a wolf herself. But he does agree that Valier was probably thought to be seer.

Considers that if Valier was thought as seer, then morm is guilty. Or she was kill because she left no-trails and one wolf is "sporty"

I disagree. Valier left a nice big trail...to morm. Of course, maybe you mean no trails to the wolves. Still waiting to find out what "sporty" means...

#160: Doubts Valier would be killed as a seer if morm is not a wolf. Asks Rikae why she changed her style from the last game (before saying Day 1 was a waste, now saying it's useful). He says he's sure Lommy's been seered upon and doesn't suspect her.

Question: What makes you think that Lommy's been seered upon (I'm assuming you mean dreamt of)? I think it's more likely morm was dreamt of...

Conclusion: While I don't see anything that makes Volo obviously suspicious, I still find some posts a bit strange (which I commented on above). I'm still not sure about him.

EDIT: X-ed with Legate, Mac, Green, Legate

[Volo]

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.
Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it :D
Oh, I assure you I was at least as tired when I wrote it. But what I meant is this:
Morm is Innocent and the Wolves know it. Valier attacks morm in a way that can be interpreted as an attack by a Seer. But the Wolves know that Valier didn't dream of morm if she dreamt at all. And except that I see very little in her saying that she'd be the Seer. Concluding that the Wolves didn't think of Valier as the Seer.
The problem is that this talk about how the Wolves saw Valier lead to nothing. It is fun to bring your own thoughts about how the Wolves thought when they chose their kill, but I don't see how it can discussed at Day and turn out productive. For the simple reason that the Wolves might bluff, double-bluff, shoot the darkness, plan something very complicated, kill a certain type of player. And the Innocents have no way of knowing what the Wolves thought until the end of game.
Ok, that might have been a bit overreacted, but toDay is concentrated too much on what the Wolves might have thought at Night, it's nearly as unproductive and confusing as the quiet/loud discussion. As Farael already mentioned, by the way.
(I personally think that they chose Valier because she'd leave no trail.)

By "sporty" in meant that they'd rather kill quiet players than players know to be dangerous. I'll try not to say something as cryptic again.


Now at last to what I think about who the Wolves might be.

(There's a list of my preveous suspicions in post #129 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=537578&postcount=129).)


Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.

Green: Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.This looks very suspicious. Why would she concentrate on morm so much at that time if they weren't Wolves? Seems very out of place. Instead of "what did I do wrong", a "what did my partner do wrong".
Post #123 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=537572&postcount=123) is on the whole very suspicious:
1. It feels like Green is voting just because she has to vote and not because she really suspects Nerwen, her reason being rather odd to me (Well, then again I don't really understand why Nerwen was lynched in the first place - although lynching Valier would have been no better :o ).
2. I'm not completely sure about this, but the way Green turns her suspicion at Lommy in the same post as she votes another person is worrying. I've seen many Innocents doing this, so I can't decide if this should be taken into account.

morm: I haven't looked too closely at toDays posts of his as there simply hasn't been enough time, but he is linked to both of my main suspects and that makes me suspect his as well.


Leaning Good:
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely. Both feel Innocent toDay.
Mac
The Might
Fea

I don't have any ideas formed about these at the moment:
Meneltarmacil
Aganzir
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

There's something nasty there, I'll see to it when I have the time:
Kath
Brinniel


I'm late for a meeting and I Xd with everything since #188.

[Brinniel]

(Once again, I'm not analysing every single post, only the ones I think are important. Otherwise, everything will just be too lengthy.)

Analysis of Mac:

Day 1

#50: Doesn't see how Rikae could form an opinion on him based on his first post which was completely roleplay. Thinks Nerwen is more tense than she was last game. Volo is suspicious- criticises Rikae then agrees and jumps on the Valier bandwagon.

#59: Doesn't think Volo's reason for suspecting Rikae ("her analysis was not helpful enough") is not a good enough reason to suspect her.

#75: Finds Nerwen continuously defensive. If no one else will suspect Volo, he'll look elsewhere.

#88: A long analytical post:
Innocent or speaks sense: Lommy, Legate, Aganzir, Menel, Might, Brinn, Kuru
No idea: Volo, morm, Fea, Farael, Rikae, Shasta
Leaning Guilty: Sally, Green, Nerwen, Valier, Kath

#104: Thinks Might's self-vote was a "tantrum" - probably innocent

#121: Votes Nerwen

Quite honestly, I don't see anything that alarms me about Mac. He seems to think well through his suspicions and as a wolf, I find him to be a lot more accusing. I'm thinking he's innocent for now.

Okay, from posts #188 and on I'm not going to include in my analysis because I finished before they posted, and I just don't have the time or energy to keep picking apart everything as I go.

EDIT: X-ed with Volo

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Might:

Day 1

#7: Says he'd rather vote for the quiet players.

#10: The quiet ones are more suspicious.

Now it is at these very first statements that causes the controversy. Yet, I find usually the one who starts controversy and grabs attention is innocent. I would almost rather look at those who continued this discussion past its expiration date for any wolvishness.

#53: A defensive post. Doesn't want to vote without proof or explaining reasons.

#69: Thinks people are taking him too seriously. They shouldn't vote for him just because he's out of the ordinary. Doesn't want the same patterns as last game.

Originally, I saw this as suspicious...mainly because of the "don't vote me, because I'm different" statement.

#78: Votes for himself.

I still think the self-vote really did come out of frustration and curiousity. Though, it's always possible that as a wolf he did it knowing people would avoid a repeat of last game. But I doubt it.

Day 2

#139: Says his self-vote was because he wasn't in the mood of getting votes because he was confusing and he was curious if people would actually lynch him. Finds Legate suspicious.

His explanation seems legit. I want to know why he finds Legate suspicious, though.

Conclusion: My opinion hasn't changed. Might is still leaning innocent for me.

[A Little Green]

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.

EDIT: x-ed with Brinn

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Sally:

Day 1

#20: Notes that in the last game the last baddie was silent mostly. We should pay attention to when and what people post.

#63: Is reluctant to vote the quiet just because they're quiet. Same reasons for the loud players.

#94: Finds morm fuzzy- a hunch. Doesn't want to see Might die by her hand. Votes Morm.

I'm a little uncomfortable about her vote for morm. I don't like when votes are based only on hunches and nothing else. But still, she doesn't ring any alarms.

Day 2

#167: Agrees that Valier's post could be interpreted as seerish. Could still be thought that way whether morm was a wolf or not. If not, he was also framed. Or Valier could've been picked randomly.

I doubt the wolves picked Valier randomly.

#169: Votes morm

#182: Says she was surprised by Nerwen's lynching. Will look at those who voted her if morm is a wolf.

We should look at Nerwen voters regardless if morm is a wolf. After all, there were seven votes. A wolf is hidden in there somewhere.

Conclusion: Sally is certainly persistant with morm. If he is a wolf, I doubt she is one too. For now, I'm pretty unsure on her.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Fea:

Day 1

# 40: Doesn't think Day 1 psots will have substance. There's nothing to go on since the wolves have nothing to hide.

Like many others, I disagree. But I find nothing suspicious about this post.

#90: Says she'll vote for someone who will complicate things later on if she has no better suspects. Glad to see Might stirring up controversy, though she thinks him more likely innocent.

#93: It's natural for everyone to be defensive

Maybe, but a wolf tends to be more defensive because they get more nervous when suspected. I know from previous experience.

#97: Votes morm, disagreeing with his vote.

Day 2

#140: Thinks Valier was killed to frame morm as well as her confidence in gut reactions.

#143: Posts all quotes mentioning Valier.

#146: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier and finds him innocent.

Well, she certainly seems a lot more helpful on Day 2. Although, she did state back on Day 1 that she would be.

Conclusion: I honestly cannot read Fea at all. So I have no idea at this point.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kuru:

Day 1

#16: Agree about not picking out the quiet ones. Though the same could be said about loud players.

#54: Suspicious of Might based off his desire to vote a loud/quiet

#66: Morm is talking sense. Lommy talks a lot, is trying to be too helpful.

#76: Valier is looking furry for her defensiveness and vote. But he's still reluctant to vote her.

#102: Finds the newbie/veteran debate less helpful than the quiet/loud one. Nothing should be based on how long someone's been around.

#112: Is inclined to vote for Lommy.

#117: Clarifies that Lommy is not coherent and is self-contradicting.

#127: Doesn't want to vote morm. Would rather vote Lommy but chooses Nerwen.

I'm finding it strange he would vote Nerwen went he suspects Lommy so much. But I suppose that's because he feared a double lynch.

#132: If Nerwen is innocent, someone should look at Lommy.

Conclusion: I find it strange how he makes so many short posts, but perhaps that's just his style. I don't find anything alarming about him, and since he won't be around toDay, I'd rather not consider him for lynching.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Menel:

Day 1

#17: Agrees there's 1-2 quiet wolves. Thinks there will be one wolf who will confuse everyone.

#122: Thinks morm is acting odd. Doesn't like that his reason for voting Valier is because she might get him lynched. Doesn't think Valier is a wolf if morm is. Votes morm.

Day 2

#148: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier, but it could be a double bluff.

#152: Nerwen's wolfish behaviour was actually newbiness. One wolf probably voted her.

I think possibly more than one wolf voted her.

#158: Agrees with Farael that Rikae is suspicious. Thinks it's possible morm and Rikae are wolves together.

Conclusion: Menel seems to quickly jump the bandwagon. First with morm, then with Rikae. Also, I agree with others' comments about him stating that he's surprised to be alive and so on. I've overlooked it because I know he'd been dying early on a lot. But letting everyone know that is a perfect way for a wolf to slide by..

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kath:

Day 1

#51: Thinks it's okay for Rikae to offer an opinion on Mac based on outside reasons. Thinks Nerwen is jumpy.

#67: Votes Might- thinks his self-vote might be double-bluff.

Her vote really did come out of nowhere and I do find that fishy.

Day 2

#157: Agrees that Valier could've been thought as a seer, or perhaps they killed her knowing she's potentially dangerous. Finds it odd that Green goes back to the loud/quiet discussion from yesterDay. Finds Lommy innocent.

I do agree with her thoughts on Green. As I said earlier, we should look at those who continue that discussion long past its due date.

#168: Still doesn't like Might's self vote. Doesn't like morm's reply to Valier. Finds Brinn's vote suspicious.
Possibly guilty: Green, Might, Brinn, morm

Conclusion: While I still don't like her vote yesterDay, the rest seems okay for now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Legate dear, that's definitely not how it works at us. But if you are very hungry, well, maybe you can find something from a certain hobbit's place... :p

Huh?

While I agree it sounds the most probable, I think we should not ignore other things that might have contributed to her death, like Lommy seemed to be trying to do.

Okay. Like what? Why do you think Valier died, Aganzir? Way to rip on Lommy and then do what you're criticizing her for.

Feanor of the Peredhil - There really isn't much to go on. She seems somehwat distant, playful and rational all the same time and I really can't say anything about her before she makes the post about her feelings she promised to make.

I did make that post. In 140/165 when I hit edit instead of quote and ended up replacing my list of Val-posts:

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS?

1) he's morm (that means he's suspicious)
2) he voted for somebody people think looked, in retrospect, seerish
3) that person, who expressed suspicion in him, died in the night
4) he treated the accusation as a joke

To explain 1, mormegil is really good at this game. People who have played with him know it. He's always suspicious because everyone knows that whether or not he's guilty, he's not going to give tell tale signs. It'll be up to luck for them.

For 2 and 3, it makes it look like he's involved in Valier's death.

For 4, which I think is a bad reason to suspect him: he's treating the 'frame job' lightly. I would too. I'd have come back first thing in the morning and started laughing.

Basically, morm has as much of a chance of being a wolf as any of us.

So it's stupid to say "he must be." Because he mustn't.

The thing that makes him that much more suspicious is this:

Knowing what would happen if Valier died in the night, either

a) the wolves set him up with his permission, or
b) they set him up without it.

Either way, I'll flat out and say I think it's obvious that he's being set up. This series of events just doesn't happen without that being the case.

The wolves cast suspicion on him, regardless of his role. They knew that he'd be spotlighted today. They knew he'd be an entire Day's worth of distraction.

The suspicion lays entirely in whether or not morm knew what was going to happen before it happened.

Pretty much, the village is wasting their time chasing him around when all of the evidence is circumstantial at best. Either a wolf or he's not. We could kill him to find out, but I think we're wasting our debate on him. I think the wolves are probably sitting back and giggling.

# 40: Doesn't think Day 1 psots will have substance. There's nothing to go on since the wolves have nothing to hide.

Just to clarify: I think Day 1 posts have substance. I just don't think it's the kind you can see while they're being said. It's a 20/20 hindsight thing. I think that as days progress, Day 1 always makes a lot more sense.

I'm going back to bed. Somebody wake me up in time to do homework.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Thinlómien - helpful, nice, happy, etcetera. My question about Lommy: when you jumped in to post that Valier's death looks like morm's guilt, did you believe it, or were you just being the first one to publicly admit to the possibility?

Legate of Amon Lanc - no particular feelings of interest.

Aganzir - furry? I don't know. I don't like his accusation of Lommy and I feel like I missed something between Ag and Legate, because 'that's definitely not how it works at us'... It's the 'at us.' Is it just a grammar slip? The meaning of the sentence is lost on me.

Meneltarmacil - Eh.

Volo - I had suspicions last night, but I forgot them before this morning. At some point I'll go back and try to figure out what it was that worried me about Volo.

Macalaure - shrug.

The Might - I think the suicide vote points to TM's innocence. I haven't changed my mind.

Mormegil - innocent. Or I'll be forced to lynch him day one every game in our future for so completely pulling one over on me.

Feanor of the Peredhil - what a pleasant young woman...

Brinniel - systematic. I feel like if I could take notes the same way she does, I'd get higher than a C in my Neoclassical/Romantic English Lit class this term... No particular feelings. I'd like to keep her around, even if just because she simplifies my life by taking useful notes.

Satansaloser2005 - shrug

Farael – shrug

A Little Green - definitely new. No denying the "what? I'm so confused, please pity me" is over-doing it a bit. A lot. I have to admit, she's a likely vote for me today.

Kath – I know I should be terrified of you, but I'm not. Why? What are you doing differently? What am I doing differently? There's something wrong here! Just to be clear: I feel like I should be suspicious because I'm always suspicious of Kath just like (and because of the same game) how I'm suspicious all the time of morm. Just to be very clear: I really have no leanings on Kath. I'd like to see more posts from her, though.

Rikae – will go out by mod-fire. I'm not going to waste my time.

Shastanis Althreduin – Is it bad that I don't even remember seeing any posts by Shasta?

Kuruharan - On an existential level, Kuru, where are you? I miss you. Come back soon. I don't know what to do when I'm not being thwacked. Oh, for the village: I want to see a lot more length out of Kuru in the next few days.

[Brinniel]

(I wonder if I'm bugging the crap out of everyone with these flood posts. But with some many of us, I decided I want to be more analytical. It's helping me clarify my own thoughts...I only hope it's helping everyone else too, if only even a little.)

Analysis of Mormegil:

Day 1

#60: Doesn't think it's logical to not vote someone because they haven't played before. Finds Lommy to be contradictory.

#95: Thinks Valier is too concerned with saving herself. Votes Valier. Might is suspicious for self-vote. Volo seems frazzled. Mac and Rikae look innocent.

#119: Agrees with Volo that Valier's desparate.

#125: Doesn't like Menel's comment how he thinks wolves will kill him in the Night.

#133: Lommy's tone about Nerwen hints that she knows that she will be innocent.

I'm still uncomfortable with his vote for Valier...it seems more of a retaliation than anything. At the end of Day 1, I did grow more suspicious of him.

Day 2

#145: Convinced of Lommy's guilt- say's he's being framed.

A bit defensive for my taste. Though, I can see where he's coming from.

#175: Is glad to see some are considering other candidates than him (Farael, for example). Kath seems innocent. Flip flops on Might. Doesn't understand Sally's logic. Farael seems lost, not sure about Menel, something's not right about Volo.

Conclusion: I don't like his vote on Day 1, and I even less like his first post of Day 2. Still, I don't see why morm would kill Valier. I don't know...anything is possible.

EDIT: X-ed with Fea

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Shasta:

Day 1

#28: Says he thinks Rikae is innocent.

He doesn't vote Day 1, which I don't find unordinary at all. I do wish he explained why he thought Rikae was innocent.

Day 2

#174: Finds morm's post desperate. Says he wants to look at Volo.

#184: Innocent: Kath, Sally, Might
Guilty: Legate, Volo, Morm
Votes Volo.

He doesn't explain why he votes Volo and that frustrates me.

Conclusion: Shasta doesn't say much...he never does and he couldn't easily get away as an under-the-radar wolf. He just pops in and out and doesn't explain any of his suspicions.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of A Little Green:

Day 1

#41: Says anything can be called wolvish. Quiet/loud discussions are pointless. Doesn't find Valier wolfish.

#72: Might has weird behaviour, but not necessarily suspicious. Unsure of Valier. Finds Nerwen and Sally innocent.

#103: Doesn't see what's so suspicious about morm. Is unsure about Lommy. Nerwen is most suspicious.

Wait...she goes from thinking Nerwen probably innocent to most likely suspicious in two posts. I find that odd.

#123: Is uneasy about Lommy. If Nerwen's innocent, Lommy's a question mark. Votes Nerwen because she's the least non-suspicious of her options.

I find the "least non-suspicious" phrasing to be furry.

Day 2

#144: Thinks Lommy's analysis about morm's guilt is too obvious. Thinks Lommy is suspicious because she was loud and Nerwen is innocent.

I find the reason behind that suspicion odd.

Conclusion: Green is being very careful. She tries not to suspect someone too much and her reasonings behind her suspicions are weird. I'm finding her suspicious right now.

[The Might]

Aahh!!! I've been reading through the last 3 pages of the thread for a half an hour and I come to the same conclusion, such a big game is going to make my head explode if I keep trying to think who says what and why and all that stuff.
Anways, thanks Brinn for the analyses of the others, as I said before as a newbie I'll be more or less dependent on this stuff, as I don't know how different players act in certain situations.

About Legate, hard to say what I don't like about him now, but I kind of feel he is suspicious.
Same goes for Thinlómien.
I don't like how she considers Legate's posts so relaxed and calm. I am sure sure that a smart guy like Legate could well manage to post innocentishly even as a wolf.

Problem is that I can't really say I definitely feel someone is a wolf, I'm quite unsure about the others for now.

Probably will X with Brinniel.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Lommy:

Day 1

#32: Thinks people shouldn't grumble about quiets- they leave trails too. Disagrees with Valier that loud players easily stay hidden. Finds Brinn slightly furry.

#36: Doesn't see what's so suspicious about Valier- she seems normal. Doesn't want to vote Green because she's a newbie. Finds Nerwen suspicious because of her comment about Rikae on Mac.

#47: Volo makes sense. Disagrees with Fea's style. Green is too quick to agree, too distant.

#57: Nerwen is flip-flopping. Still suspects Brinn and Green. Feels okay about Aganzir, Volo, Mac. Legate and Valier seem innocent. Might's self-vote is odd: "suspicious in innocent way"

#80: Suspects Nerwen for defensiveness, but not pursuing her. Finds Kath's vote "futile." Plans to bring in a 4th candidate, though doesn't want double lynching.

Why would you bring in another candidate if you're worried about double lynching?

#91: Valier innocent for lurking comment, but furry for the seerish comment (the one's that's been discussed). Thinks Fea seems innocent. Legate's teacherish attitude is troublesome. Finds Nerwen's later posts more suspicious.

#126: Votes Nerwen. States it won't look good for her if Nerwen is innocent.

Nothing grabs me here. I find Lommy's arguments to mostly be quite reasonable.

Day 2

#137: Says Valier's death was because the wolfves thought she was the seer.

Note: she was the first to make this statement

#142: A long analysis. Basically, thinks the wolves thought Valier dreamt of morm, therefore he is guilty.

Through all this analysis, I find it strange she didn't even think of the possibilty that morm was framed.

#151: States that wolves will sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer. Finds Green's comments about her suspicious. Suspects morm and Green.

#156: Responding to Rikae. It's possible Valier's death was a framing, but why pick morm to frame?

Because morm was highly suspected yesterDay, therefore more lynchable.

#166: Says Farael makes good points on Rikae.

#185: Feels better about morm after post #175. Not certain.

#187: Innocent: Volo, Mac, Farael, Legate, Shasta
Neutral: Fea, Aganzir, Menel, Kath
Suspicious: Sally, Brinn, Might, Kuru, Morm, Green

Conclusion: Lommy seemed alright Day 1, but toDay her attitude towards morm is odd and it makes me very slightly suspicious of her. But still, I have doubts. After all, would a wolf really act as obvious as Lommy is?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Aganzir - furry? I don't know. I don't like his accusation of Lommy and I feel like I missed something between Ag and Legate, because 'that's definitely not how it works at us'... It's the 'at us.' Is it just a grammar slip? The meaning of the sentence is lost on me.

Very simple, Fea. It was a reply to my remark pointing at the male-chauvinistic manners in the Sackville-Bagginses' family. Though I must say it's a good objection to be raised, since if at any hobbit family, it definitely does nor work like that at the Sackville-Bagginses from what we know. I have to remember that for further, since it was obviously off-role.

But anyway, it is a comment that does not concern the game itself.

And by the way, Aganzir is a "she".

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Legate:

Day 1

#33: Finds Rikae strange, but says she's always that way. Menel isn't suspicious and Brinn's genuine. Green's posts are bit too structured. Kuru is strange.

#34: Lommy's post is most calming and helpful, Brinn's is also good. Valier seems contradicting.

#45: Thinks Nerwen is too self-critical. Makes a comment about the possiblity of Green and Valier as wolves.

#83: Thinks Might is fishy. Lommy doesn't seem wolfish; is more convinced that Nerwen is. Worried about morm, though his posts are so far reasonable.

#87: Nerwen's defensive nature is suspicious. Doesn't like Kuru's one-liners.

#115: Votes Nerwen.

I agree with a lot of what he has to say, and don't see anything suspicious here.

Day 2

#153: Says Agan has weak points- no one would kill Valier for only her hunches thought dangerous. Thinks it's more probable morm was framed, though it could be a double bluff. Thinks Lommy's post looks confused and innocentish.

#162: Finds morm's reply wolfish.

Conclusion: Day 2, and I still think Legate is talking sense. Going all the way back to his first game, I know how dangerous a furry Legate can be, so I will be wary...but still, I think it's more likely he's innocent for now at least.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Aganzir:

Day 1

#48: Agreeing with Lommy, states it's possible to catch the quiets by seeing how other wolves treat them. Legate, Menel, and Volo are genuine, and Nerwen is reasonable. Agrees with Rikae. Finds nothing wolfish about Lommy.

#99: Thinks Lommy is protecting Green. Is neutral about Valier and wary of Nerwen. Doesn't think Might is a wolf.

#108: Considers voting for Nerwen for attempting to divert suspicion from her.

#120: Votes Nerwen.

No red flags here.

#141: Agrees that Valier could've been mistaken for seer. Or her hunches were too dangerous or a quiet wolf was worried about her first comment.

#186: Doesn't like how Lommy points Valier's death to seer hints. Thinks Menel comments too much about how he's surprised to be alive. Is wary of Brinn, Fea, and Volo for only speculating about morm and Valier.

About the first comment: I find it strange she accuses Lommy for this reason, when she happened to agree with her earlier.

Conclusion: While she seems a bit more contradictory toDay, nothing immediately alarms me.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Farael

Day 2

#155: Mentions that Rikae accuses Nerwen then shifts it to Lommy. Thinks Rikae is too aggressive and finds her wolfish.

#161: Still doesn't like Rikae. Finds Lommy flip-flopping.

#176: Finds Rikae's behaviour suspicious and vote her. If Rikae's a wolf, look at Brinn.

Doesn't realise Rikae has already withdrawn.

Conclusion: While I tend to agree with his thoughts on Rikae, I don't know enough about him to form any sort of opinion yet.

Yay, I'm done analysing. My back hurts from sitting at the computer so long. I don't think I'll ever be this analytical on Day 2 again, not with this many people. :rolleyes:

[Meneltarmacil]

A few points to bring up:

My comments about being eaten were only sarcastic jokes based on past events. If my ancestors weren't attracting enough suspicion on Day 1, the wolves usually killed them on Night 1.

Now, as to my bandwagoning, what was I supposed to do? Mormegil had attracted three votes due to the fact that he genuinely looked suspicious. I had noticed a distinctive change in his style and had seen him posting random accusations early on. My vote was based on actual suspicions and not just because morm had a lot of votes.

As for who voted whom:

Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.

[Brinniel]

Okay, since I starting analysing, my opinions haven't really changed that much.

So, to put all the conclusions from my posts into one big list:

Leaning Innocent:
Mac
Might
Legate

Neutral:
Sally
Fea
Kuru
Kath
Aganzir
Farael

Slightly Suspicious:
Menel
Shasta
Lommy
Morm

Suspicious:
Green
Volo

Okay, I'm going to go sleep for awhile because I just spent the entire night doing WW. I'll be back before deadline, but no more flood posts from me toDay. *phew*

[mormegil]

Sorry, I'm only to post 193 and while I may make it back in time before the deadline I'm not entirely sure abou it and if I do I doubtful will have a chance to do more than glance through and see the votes.

Sorry Legate...I did copy Kath's vote list *glares at Kath* I was lazy as it seems was Kath for that I apologize. Speaking of Kath, it does surprise me that she honestly suspects me. Others, it doesn't surprise me. Fea I did read your posts because I do/did suspect you so I wanted to see more of what you said and based upon that I still suspect you a bit but you seem more sensible on the matter...which kind of scares me honestly ;).

To clarify my first post of the day I did laugh (because it is funny at the attempt and I pictured old Lommy running out yelling that morm must be a wolf because Valier looked like a seer which I actually didn't pick up on...I felt her behavior was far more suspicious) at the wolves attempt as it was a very weak set up job but it has worked in so far as the whole day has been spent talking about me. Killing Valier was a benefit to them and the next day result was a calculated side benefit.

I'm going with my gut today and voting for Volo. I know most people think him innocent and that is one thing that scares me as he hasn't 'felt' right to me. I cannot pinpoint it but I feel there is something.

++Volo

[The Might]

So if counted correctly so far we have
Morm - 1 (Sally) and
Volo - 2 (Shasta and Morm)

Problem is that I don't feel I'm any closer to really being sure of who the wolves are...the good thing is that today I'll probably be online before the deadline so count me in for the finishing discussion. Maybe that will help. :o

[Thinlómien]

I don't really know what to think of this sudden outpour of Brinniel's, so maybe I try not to think about it all...

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.

This might be a bit ridiculous point, but I think Little G's way of using the :D-smiley is very wolvish. I really can't explain it, but somehow it always makes me shiver when she uses it. I think she uses it in a slightly apologetic way or to emphasise she's no threat to anyone.

You see, Lommy, as it happens I have no idea of what wolves "usually" do. Your comment seems somewhat sensible, though.Did I say you should have?

Lommy, what made you suddenly think morm's manner as suspicious?Rereading.

Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.Now, that's well phrased. I was thinking along the same lines, but I couldn't have pinpointed it all like that. I agree with practically everything Volo says here.

Speaking of him, I find the beginning of his post #193 somewhat suspicious. I can't put my finger on it, but the way he speculates sounds somewhat wrong to me. If morm proves to be a wolf, I'd have a second look at Volo.

Anyway, I also agree with what Volo says about Green and morm. They do look like wolf partners, to some extent at least.

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely.Agree about what?


He doesn't explain why he votes Volo and that frustrates me.
Yes, Shasta, could you please explain this the next time you're around?

Anways, thanks Brinn for the analyses of the others, as I said before as a newbie I'll be more or less dependent on this stuff, as I don't know how different players act in certain situations.I'm really a bit worried about how much you trust or claim to trust other people.

I don't like how she considers Legate's posts so relaxed and calm. I am sure sure that a smart guy like Legate could well manage to post innocentishly even as a wolf.I think he would well be able to do that. But his calmness and relaxedness seems mostly more of the innocent sort - I think calm and relaxed wolves tend to be more distant than relaxed and calm innocents. I really can't explain it very well, so maybe I just should say his manner seems innocentish.

My question about Lommy: when you jumped in to post that Valier's death looks like morm's guilt, did you believe it, or were you just being the first one to publicly admit to the possibility?I wanted to admit the possibility (admit? now I'm not sure if that's a good word because it sounds like I and morm had a furry alliance...) but I also thought the most probable reason for Valier's death. So I could say I believed in morm's guilt, but that might be a bit exaggerated as I really wasn't sure (and am even more unsure now since there have been credible arguments for morm's innocence being a 50-50 possibility at least).

Through all this analysis, I find it strange she didn't even think of the possibilty that morm was framed.Isn't analysis something well-ordered that makes sense? :p Anyway, what about this comment:
If I try to imagine her as the seer, it sounds more like she had dreamt of morm than that she hadn't, but on the other hand, why would she as the seer suspected morm-wolf that loudly? So her being killed as the seer doesn't necessarily point at morm being a wolf. I mean, the wolves might have killed her even if morm was an innocent. Certainly the wolves knew, though, that Valier's death would point at morm.

Why would you bring in another candidate if you're worried about double lynching?Simply because I knew I'm not guilty and morm and TM didn't seem particularly suspicious to me. I didn't think bringing in a fourth candidate would greatly increase the risk of a double-lynch and I'd rather vote someone suspicious even if it increases the minimalistic risk of a double lynch a little than vote for someone I don't suspect at all just to be 99,9% sure there will be no double-lynch.

Because morm was highly suspected yesterDay, therefore more lynchable.True, but he was not the only one who would have been easy to frame, if you ask me.

Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.Is there any actual reason for you to think that way? Making that kind of assumptions on futile grounds is more than dangerous.

I did make that post. In 140/165 when I hit edit instead of quote and ended up replacing my list of Val-posts:Oh, sorry, I really seem to be quite stupid or confused for I did read that post... :rolleyes: I think you seem a bit more innocent than guilty, but I'm definitely not sure, you tend to be such an enigma...

As to who I might vote toDay, I would feel the safest with voting Green. I suspect her quite a lot. I could vote morm too but this morm-Valier -thing seems to be all too complicated and messy and I really should think more about it before voting morm. If I don't have time to think more about it, I don't think I will vote him, unless I should choose between him and someone I consider far more innocentish. I could vote Sally or TM too, but I'd prefer voting Greenie (or morm, if I reach the conclusion he does seem guilty).

EDIT: xed with morm and Miggy

[satansaloser2005]

Leaning Good:
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely. Both feel Innocent toDay.
Mac
The Might
Fea

I don't have any ideas formed about these at the moment:
Meneltarmacil
Aganzir
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

There's something nasty there, I'll see to it when I have the time:
Kath
Brinniel


I'm late for a meeting and I Xd with everything since #188.





you left me off your list love. ;)



P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway. :p

I'm making no comment on my potential wolfishness really because it's not worth my time to be honest. Just pointing out that if one of us is lynched or killed and revealed as a wolf, the other is most likely not a wolf. (Which is me by the way the non-wolf me yes me i'm an ordo! sorry quick plug for kicks and giggles) Just for reference. (That sounds hugely suspicious but I'm tired so I can't really explain it any better right now.)



Ah, huzzah it seems I have caused a bit of a stir! Yay!

Okay now I really must run or I'll be late for church.

[The Might]

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.

Hmmm, now this seems to be an explanation of why you both trust each other. Question is why you felt then need to explain this, is there something that must be hidden, or do you really suspect him?

He said he trusts you in #153, and yet in #187 when you made the list of people you see him as one of the innocents. Why is it that he trusting became suspicious now and not earlier? Does it have anything to do with me feeling bad about both of you?

Now, I'm not sure, but after this post my suspicion of you seems to make more sense.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++GREEN

Because I have to leave and won't be back before deadline.

Because the person I voted for yesterday has since stopped looking worrisome to me.

Because of all the players I could choose, especially four hours before deadline, Green is the one who seems both wolfish-and-confusing.

She fits into both of my preferences for who to vote for: her actions make me think she's guilty ("What? Me? How could I be guilty, I barely even know who mormegil is!") and other people seem to agree with my instincts on this one (which means it's not necessarily me just making things up).

[Meneltarmacil]

Following recent comments (and a couple of votes), I've gone to look at everything Volo has said and now return to present my conclusions.

Volo mentions suspicion of two people: Legate and Valier. Legate just seems thrown in there with little reason other than "he's too friendly," and mild suspicion of him is discussed. His reasons for Valier-voting are mainly simple agreement with what has been said, which does sound strange.

Now, his behavior on Day 2 is very odd. He rapidly changes his position on Valier's death, but leaves the focus on what the implications for morm might be. However, he seems to leave out the fact that he may also be implicated in her death.

We may have a wolf here, but with the emphasis on "may." If morm is a wolf, Volo probably isn't, as two wolves voting for Valier would be unlikely given last night's events. For the moment I'll just be watching Volo carefully.

[Volo]

Popping in to answer, haven't read all. Family'll throw me out if I don't go party Chrismas with them.

WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.
Simple. 1. I think that they're honest because I conclude as they do independadly. For proof look at my post at about 11PM GMT where I promise to show my ideas and my preveous post which is nearly a cross-post with Legate and Lommy so I couldn't have searched for my thoughts about you and Sally after Legates post so fast.
2. A lot will be cleared about them if our suspects are Innocent or Wolves. Which will reveal a lot (to me) about both Lommy's and Legate's roles. I find it stupid to suspect them at this point.

[A Little Green]

First of all, I'm still unfomfortable with Lommy. I can't quite put a finger on it. There's something about her overly cheerful and helpful manner I find suspicious.

Secondly, after reading carefully through the entire thread, I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing. Also, it seems to me that he's been overly careful in voicing his opinions. I find him quite suspicious.

Volo is troubling me greatly at the moment. Though his latest post explained a little, there is definitely something there I don't like. Just a gut-feeling, probably.

So. Votes this far (if I'm not mistaken):
morm - 1
Volo - 2
Greenie - 1

morm, like I've said before, strikes me as innocent. Volo is suspicious, but I'd be reluctant to vote for him because I don't have valid arguments against him.

Therefore, my vote today will most probably be Menel. (Or Lommy, if she convinces me of her guilt before the deadline.) I'm ready to go for Volo as well if there is a great possibility of a double-lynch that my voting for Volo would prevent.

[Macalaure]

I'm back. I only skim-read the posts of today so far, and I'm very disturbed. Except Rikae, Legate, and Brinn, nobody really mentioned me at all! That's unnatural. There's something wrong in here. :D

Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.

All Nerwen voters past that point look suspicious to me. Yes, you were the first, and if you are a wolf, you wisely picked Nerwen, who many have mentioned as suspicious before, and brought her to the front. You did't discuss other possibilities at that point.
I don't have anything good against you otherwise yet. I'll properly read everything now, and then I'll see clearer, I hope.

[Volo]

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely.
Agree about what?
About who are suspicious.

you left me off your list love.
Yes, dear, I reserved a special place above the list for you, a place called "suspicious".
Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway. :pI like the "incredibly clever" part. :D The only thing here than makes me suspect you less is than you're a newbie, but Wolves frequently vote eachother, otherwise finding them would be much easier as we would know outright who can't be a Wolf after we find who was a Wolf. Since morm was in no real danger of being lynched, it was safe to vote him to cover tracks. And if he is in real danger of being lynched, it's easy to hide among the votes as your vote can't save him anyway. (Umm... Why am I explaining these things anyway... I find you suspicious and if you're a Wolf you probably understand it anyway.)

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.I find it funny that you would say something like this as you have pretty much trusted me the whole game and agreed with nearly everything I have said, or at least told me as much. And why doesn't my trust for you and Legate turn on such alarms? The thought that you have noticed that I trust people who agree with me (Heck, I even said so myself in the preveous post.) and used it against us comes into my mind.
But I am not going to vote you or Legate toDay. I'm very sure that tomorrow will make these things much clearer.

And another note about Lommy & Legate: Even if I'm wrong in trusting them, I find it extremely improbable that both of them are Wolves, there is too much agreement between them, even if their lists aren't completely alike. And since there is no Cobbler in this game, I'm sure than at least one of them does deserve our trust.


I'll leave this at this and move to look into Kath's, Brinniel's and Mac's (Since you asked for it... :rolleyes: ) souls or something like that.

[Aganzir]

Fea, I think the wolves probably thought Valier was the seer, as I said in my post #141. The thing I didn't like was that Lommy was being so sure that was the case, as if she hadn't considered any other options at all.

Greenie, Lommy asked Kuru to elaborate what was suspicious in her behaviour. Kuru replied that it sounded like Lommy was trying to find out what to do better in order not to get caught. The way Menel asked Rikae to elaborate what she found suspicious with Mac looked to me like he was asking it on behalf of a fellow wolf so that Mac would be able to fix his behaviour without being noticed.

**

Innocent:
Legate
Farael
(Rikae)

Suspicious:
Greenie. She's all too friendly, asks way too much and doesn't have opinions of her own. That's not what I would expect from her, even as a newbie. No offence, but according to my experiences, I really think you are a better player than that.
Sally. Her post #218 makes me cry.
Brinniel. The more I read her posts, the worse feeling from them. I still find her first post empty, toDay's first posts she speculated what morm has to do with Valier's death, and now this enormous analysis project.
Menel. Explained in #186 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=537755&postcount=186).

Somewhere in the middle:
Mac
Thinlómien. I don't like how she was so sure that Valier was killed because of being considered the seer. Only the wolves know it for sure. She was also almost immediately suspecting morm. But if the wolves knew Valier's death would point at morm, why on earth would one of them be the first one to say it rather than wait for someone else to do it?
Volo. I really don't understand why he thinks Lommy's probably been dreamt of. It almost looks like he's trying to protect a fellow wolf.

No idea:
Might
Mormegil. I don't understand though why non-voters are highly suspicious; I think it's easier for a wolf to avoid too much attention and vote.
Feanor
Kath
Shasta
Kuruharan

I won't probably be able to be here until deadline toDay so I'll vote in an hour.

edit: xed since Greenie. Based on that post of hers I can say I am probably going to vote for her. Sorry dear, but (also) that was quite... non-genuine.

[Kath]

My apologies, but it's going to have to be an early vote again. My suspicions remain the same as they did earlier, and for the same reasons, but I do want to mention that my suspicion of Brinniel has increased after the deluge of posts she made earlier. It's reminiscent of a wolvish tactic I once used so it worries me. However, my main suspicion remains with:

++A LITTLE GREEN

[Macalaure]

I finished reading properly until my first post today. Here's what I found so far.

This still seems staged for me:
Lommy carefully accuses morm to have killed Valier, then he mocks it. Then Lommy continues along the lines of a frame. Then both slowly back down from their mutual suspicion. If Lommy and morm are wolves, this would make sense to me. They feared Valier was the seer, and now they try to keep people away from going after morm by making it clear, by a weak case and ridicule, that morm is no wolf and is being framed by them. I might be over-interpreting, but this is how it appears to me.

By the way, if morm is evil, it's not a double-bluff: it's a semi-double-bluff, ;) because in the first place he would have expected to sacrifice himself over a killed seer who dreamt of him, and is now using plan B.

Aganzir and Lily (*is inspired by Fea's Lil*) talk about the loud/silent arguments of Valier in the beginning. I find this suspicious as it's too obvious this had nothing to do with her death.

Farael is a little too aggressive for my liking, but that's him. He feels genuine, though. A lot of people quickly took up his suspicion of Rikae. These reactions are worth examining tomorrow, when we know her role.

Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon.
explain?

[Thinlómien]

Sally's post #218 is something all too wolvish. I mean, if she knew she herself was innocent, she wouldn't surely speculate that way.

Hmmm, now this seems to be an explanation of why you both trust each other. Question is why you felt then need to explain this, is there something that must be hidden, or do you really suspect him?

He said he trusts you in #153, and yet in #187 when you made the list of people you see him as one of the innocents. Why is it that he trusting became suspicious now and not earlier? Does it have anything to do with me feeling bad about both of you?

Now, I'm not sure, but after this post my suspicion of you seems to make more sense.There's nothing that must be hidden, from my part at least. I don't actually suspect him, since he seems mostly innocent to me, but that is just a suspicious streak in his behaviour I thought I'd like to mention. As to why it became suspicious only now, well, it only started to feel a bit odd after he had made that zone-post of his and named me and some other people as probably innocent with no further explanations. So, it doesn't have anything to do with your suspicions, sorry.

I find it funny that you would say something like this as you have pretty much trusted me the whole game and agreed with nearly everything I have said, or at least told me as much. And why doesn't my trust for you and Legate turn on such alarms? The thought that you have noticed that I trust people who agree with me (Heck, I even said so myself in the preveous post.) and used it against us comes into my mind.I know why I've said I think you innocent and agree with you almost all the time, but I have no way of knowing why does Legate say he thinks me innocent. I mean, I know I say I think you innocent because I genuinely think so, but I can't know if Legate says he thinks me innocent because he really does so or because he tries to make me trust him or something else suspicious. As to your trust of me and Legate, well, it simply hasn't caught my eye the way Legate's trust for me did. Maybe you're just a subtler wolf than Legate is... :p

Lastly, a few words about Little Green. She seems like a class example of a newbie wolf. She goes along with the popular suspects and sticks to the one suspicion she's had during all the game. She also seems to pretend no one suspects her at all and doesn't react at all to the accusations against her. That's exactly what I did in my second game ever when I was evil. It is a very common wolvish mistake, one that especially inexperienced wolves tend to do. So (Aganzir, you may gasp now, since you've been waiting for this ;)), Little Green, I give you a piece of advice, if you're innocent, start defending yourself against the false accusations. You're one of my top suspects right now and I will most probably vote you. You're doing no good to my opinion of you by discounting all the accusations towards you. I give you a chance to make me change my opinion of you: defend yourself in a credible manner and if I'm convinced, I will refrain from voting you (at least toDay). A credible defense may change other people's views of you as well.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Alright, some views on the current situation.

I see many people speak about Lilla Greenhand here as being suspicious. Well, for myself I can say she seemed more or less genuine to me at the beginning and that this image is beginning to dissolve slowly, as I said before. The opinions she holds in her #223 could make me suspect her more: given her overall behavior, she seems to follow certain long-time suspects, and she holds to them whatever the case. Also, she seems to defend morm, which, in the case he were a were a were a were wolf (sorry, that was the keyboard), could point to her as a pack-mate, and vice versa. But the main thing are the long-time suspects, as I said - bite and hold, maybe once the bit of flesh will fall off. That moves her to the orange zone for me.

However, what strikes me as terribly wolfish was Sally's post:
P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.
And even the rest of it. I don't see that she would be as much attacked upon, but look what she does! "It is unlikely that both of US are wolves" - what is that supposed to mean? I would understand if she said that about someone else. I would understand if she said that at the point when, let's say, morm revealed a wolf and she were accused. But this? Why? How? What?
I simply don't get this comment. I said before what I thought about her posting, and I tried to be reserved because I had problems with not being suspicious on her because of her style even if she were innocent. But I cannot resist now and switch her into the red alert zone. Unless there appears another candidate in my red zone, or unless there is any voting crisis and threat upon someone whom I consider innocent, I'll probably vote her toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Aganzir]

++ Greenie

[Macalaure]

Brinniel looks very helpful with her analyses. (20+ pages? *bows*) What I usually like about analyses, is that they often tell you more about the analyser than about the analysed. Unfortunately, most of Brinn's conclusions are lacking a bit decisiveness, which make them less helpful in this regard. I'm wary.

Some good points have been raised about Sally.

The way Menel asked Rikae to elaborate what she found suspicious with Mac looked to me like he was asking it on behalf of a fellow wolf so that Mac would be able to fix his behaviour without being noticed.I don't take advice on these matters. As can be seen in the last game, if I'm a badly playing wolf, I want to be a seriously badly playing wolf. ;)

And finally: after reading what he said today, I feel better about Legate. But the Eye is still on him.


After about two straight hours of werewolf reading, I think I need to rest my brain for a while now. I'll be back soon and think about who I will vote for.

[The Might]

Just to keep the votes in mind both for myself and for you:

A Little Green -3 (Feanor, Kath, Aganzir)
Volo - 2 (Shasta, mormegil)
mormegil - 1 (Sally)

Which now makes me quite confused. Because I too thought that mormegil was a bit fishy, but as Sally seems quite wolvish after that confusing post I am not sure what to believe, since she did vote for him.

This definitely makes me think of morm as a probably innocent one, then again I hope this won't prove to be a mistake.

One hour to the deadline left, I'm off to learn some physics, but I'll be back at a quarter to ten approximatively to see what the final discussion will bring. (quite excited, as it's the first one I take part in)

[Volo]

So many players could be called under-the-radar flyers. Not that they aren't noticed, but they are not discussed. Probably that's good for now as this large number of players is taking a toll on me, I really wouldn't want to participate in the game I modded :rolleyes: .

Kath leaves me completely baffled. And the problem is that she seemes to leave pretty much everybody else baffled as well, even Fea. :eek: Mac would appear the only one suspecting her. I don't remember an Innocent Kath doing that, at the very least she has been suspicious. Since it is the case, I hope to see more of her in the Days to come.


Brinniel:
I find Valier's vote to be a bit odd. Mainly because I can't see what's so suspicious about morm. Flashback to Lily's (Haha, funny, I'll use that, although it would help us to decide one name for each player, that would help using "search" a lot.) post. That's all.
Really - except for her analysis, which is obviously very unrational ;) *joke* - she looks rational, useful - although I don't find much use in summaries like that, except when I write them myself, sorry Brin - and Innocent. As for Kath, I'd give her more time.


Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon.
explain?Shalln't, I really hope that is forgotten as it is. But if you insist - please don't - I will explain.

[A Little Green]

Well, what can I say?

given her overall behavior, she seems to follow certain long-time suspects, and she holds to them whatever the case. Also, she seems to defend morm, which, in the case he were a were a were a were wolf (sorry, that was the keyboard), could point to her as a pack-mate, and vice versa. Follow certain long-time suspects? Hmmm... talking about Lommy, right? Well, that might be due her behaviour staying pretty much the same all the time. Why change my opinion of her if she does not change?
Defend morm? I don't see that. I've said he looks innocent, even a couple of times, but surely if we were "pack-mates" I wouldn't do anyhting that obvious unless it was absolutely vital.

What else? This might be a bit ridiculous point, but I think Little G's way of using the -smiley is very wolvish. I really can't explain it, but somehow it always makes me shiver when she uses it. I think she uses it in a slightly apologetic way or to emphasise she's no threat to anyone. Well, you're right about that being a ridiculous point at least :) I'm afraid I can't make a valid defence for my use of smileys, sorry.

The same goes for my giving overall wolvish vibes. What comes to asking way too much, that might be due to a rather peculiar aim of trying to understand people's points before making conclusions on them... :rolleyes:

Being too friendly, eh? Well, I'm afraid I can't really defend myself in that either. Is it overly weird and suspicious to be friendly?

Having no opinion of my own? Well, I admit I have been wary of accusing people, mainly because nothing that has been said in here has convinced me enough to have me believe someone actually guilty. I would feel weird to start accusing people before being certain of their guilt. I suppose I should be content with mere vague suspicions, then. However, I'd feel like being very unfair if I started hot-headedly accusing people based on some gut-feelings or the words X used to say he'll be off for the rest of the day...

PS. No laughing smileys in this one. Content now, Lommy? :)

EDIT: x-ed with Mac, The Might and Volo

[Farael]

Darn it, I just lost a really long post I was working on... guess we'll have to re-write it.


P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway. :p

I'm making no comment on my potential wolfishness really because it's not worth my time to be honest. Just pointing out that if one of us is lynched or killed and revealed as a wolf, the other is most likely not a wolf. (Which is me by the way the non-wolf me yes me i'm an ordo! sorry quick plug for kicks and giggles) Just for reference. (That sounds hugely suspicious but I'm tired so I can't really explain it any better right now.)


Red flags are flying, alarm bells ringing, dogs barking, Nazghul wailing and Mt. Doom is in deep turmoil.

I have never seen a comment that looks so badly as a half-baked attempt at either killing someone by suicide (let's face it, if we kill her and she turns out a wolf, we'll HAVE to kill Morm) or the clumsiest attempt at distancing herself from Morm.

After all, no-one would be so "ballsy" (to quote her) as to make that very statement! And besides, "It is not worth (her) time, to be honest" to make a claim on her innocense.

GIMME A BREAK

It's a shame that I don't get a second vote.... that last statement alone propels her MUCH higher up my list than Greenie who has been consistently clueless throughout the game. Besides, here's a comment that makes greenie look innocent.

Lastly, a few words about Little Green. She seems like a class example of a newbie wolf. She goes along with the popular suspects and sticks to the one suspicion she's had during all the game. She also seems to pretend no one suspects her at all and doesn't react at all to the accusations against her. That's exactly what I did in my second game ever when I was evil. It is a very common wolvish mistake, one that especially inexperienced wolves tend to do. So (Aganzir, you may gasp now, since you've been waiting for this ;)), Little Green, I give you a piece of advice, if you're innocent, start defending yourself against the false accusations. You're one of my top suspects right now and I will most probably vote you. You're doing no good to my opinion of you by discounting all the accusations towards you. I give you a chance to make me change my opinion of you: defend yourself in a credible manner and if I'm convinced, I will refrain from voting you (at least toDay). A credible defense may change other people's views of you as well.


I don't know you folks, but this to me sounds like the folowing:

"Greenie, I am in a situation where I have to vote for you, even though you are an Ordo"

Note: The Seer would never be on such situation, since (knowing Greenie's ordishness) she'd avoid talking herself into a cornier voting-wise

"Now, I don't want my voting for you to come back and make me look wolfish, therefore if you give me a valid reason to avoid voting for you I will take it and look my flip-floppy self.... if not, I will have "proven" that I can't be a wolf by this previous 'advice' post"

Really Loomy has just shot up the threat list like a Balrog falls from the bridge of Moria.

Finally, I would like to apologise in advance if I'm wrong, but doing a set of lists like Brinniel did is a perfect strategy for a wolf with time to do such thing. My apologie is due to the fact that if she's an Ordo she did bust her rear-end to help us out and I'm suspecting her anyway.

Let's face it, what better way than to look absolutely innocent than by spending HOURS analysing other people? However:

Her conclusions are weak IMO... sure, she's noting what other people said (which we can all do by using the Search function) but after that she hasn't come up with a good idea of who may be a wolf.

Furthermore, she claimed that she'll only post "important" posts, and thus opening the way to present a biased picture of what happened so far. And we all know that many people rely on those "analysis" posts rather than reading through "20 pages" worth of notes.

Therefore, Brinniel may very well be an extremely cunning wolf here.

However, of the three mentioned, my "threat" list is as follows:

Satan's A Loser (and unfortunately, if she turns out a wolf Morm will look bad 'cos of her... but right now, I don't have a strong suspicion about Morm)
Loomy That post is just AWFUL... I understand a little flip-flop Loomy style, but that's a major fault.
Brinniel specially if Rikae winds up being furry.

Edit: Cross-posted with everyone after Volo's last.

[Macalaure]

My main suspects right now are Lommy, Sally, A Little Green, mormegil, Aganzir, Legate, The Might, in more or less that order. They're followed by the only slightly suspicious Kath, Menel, Shasta, Brinn, and Volo. Only Fea, Farael, and Kuru feel really innocent to me at the moment.

Sally -> morm
Farael -> Rikae
Shasta -> Volo
morm -> Volo (Volo 2, morm 1)
Fea -> Lily (Volo 2, morm 1, Lily 1)
Kath -> Lily (Volo 2, Lily 2, morm 1)
Aganzir -> Lily (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 1)

I'm torn between thinking Lily suspicious and genuine. I'd be ready to give her the benefit of doubt for one more day, because she's a newbie. I don't know what to do with Volo, but I'm not convinced of his guilt. I'd prefer to keep him around for the moment. Sally's behavior casts some doubt on the guilt of mormegil. I have a feeling I won't get any support for a lynching of Lommy.

I think I will either vote for A Little Green or for Sally.

(edit: crossed with Lily and Farael)

[Meneltarmacil]

I have now gone back and read the posts of A Little Green.

She strikes me as somebody who has failed to notice a couple of important things or is intentionally ignoring them.

First, she continually asks what is so suspicious about morm, despite the fact that reasons for suspicion have been given already. Second, she doesn't seem to understand why I'm being careful about voicing opinions and why I've made a couple of jokes about not being eaten.

The first point, as stated earlier, could indicate a morm-Green partnership.

The second part I will answer here. I am being careful with my opinions because stating every minor suspicion of mine early on in the game is the main reason my ancestors were lynched or eaten in those scenarios. This happened because said behavior was perceived as a way of pointing the innocent in the direction of the gallows. I've already addressed the jokes, so there is no need to repeat myself here.

Now I have also noticed morm making similar arguments against me based on the jokes. This agreement between him and Green is troubling.

As is the mysterious tendency for the two of them, along with a wolfish-looking Rikae to attack Lommy. I don't really know what to make of this issue, but perhaps somebody else might.

Something that must be pointed out about A Little Green: Both of my reasons for suspicion could easily result from inexperience. Number One could result from an unfamiliarity with mormegil's playing style while Number Two could happen to anyone who doesn't know about the frequency of lynches and wolf-killings in my history. Since A Little Green does seem to be kind of new here, I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt for now and go with

++mormegil

[Macalaure]

15 minutes til deadline and many votes still to come in. Where is everybody? I don't like to point it out again today, but we're in danger of a double-lynch again...

[Volo]

It's either Lily or Sally for me, but since voting Sally would be rather risky and hurried at this point...

++ A Little Green


EDIT: Xd with Mac

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

"Not much time marine, so listen up. I'm opening the hangar door..."

I can already see the votes flying around like mad. Based on previous suspicion,

++sally

EDIT: x-ed with Mac and Volo. Volo, have you waited a minute, maybe you would have had a reason :(

[Brinniel]

Furthermore, she claimed that she'll only post "important" posts, and thus opening the way to present a biased picture of what happened so far.
I'm sorry...if you want I could go back and analyse again, this time with all details and posts included. After all, I did take notes on everything; they're on my notepad, if you could see. :D
I honestly didn't add every little detail because I was tired, and I had already spent enough hours analysing. I don't think it would've change my conclusions at all, though had I left them in. Anyways, doesn't everyone's analysis turned out biased? That's just how it is, I'm afraid.

Okay, I honestly meant to return earlier, but I napped much longer than planned. Anyways, I'm quite sure I'll be voting for Green in a moment; I still find her arguments too fabricated...and she's way too careful.

EDIT: X-ed with last three people

[Macalaure]

Sally -> morm
Farael -> Rikae
Shasta -> Volo
morm -> Volo (Volo 2, morm 1)
Fea -> Lily (Volo 2, morm 1, Lily 1)
Kath -> Lily (Volo 2, Lily 2, morm 1)
Aganzir -> Lily (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 1)
Menel -> morm (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 2)
Volo -> Lily (Lily 4, Volo 2, morm 2)
Legate -> Sally (Lily 4, Volo 2, morm 2, Sally 1)

left: Lommy, Lily, Kath, Brinn, Might

I'd prefer Sally over Lily. But I won't do it without support.

[Brinniel]

Since I've made my decision and to avoid a last minute voting frenzy, I'm doing this now:

++A Little Green

EDIT: X-ed with Mac

[Thinlómien]

Well, I think three of our wolves are morm, Sally and LiGre. They just form a weird triangle and are all quite suspicious. I could vote for any of them toDay.

Defend morm? I don't see that. I've said he looks innocent, even a couple of times, but surely if we were "pack-mates" I wouldn't do anyhting that obvious unless it was absolutely vital.You might, just because of that. Ever heard of double-bluff? :) Besides, I don't know what you've been thinking, but if you and morm are indeed both wolves, you might even have considered it vital for you to step out and claim he's innocent...

Having no opinion of my own? Well, I admit I have been wary of accusing people, mainly because nothing that has been said in here has convinced me enough to have me believe someone actually guilty. I would feel weird to start accusing people before being certain of their guilt. I suppose I should be content with mere vague suspicions, then. However, I'd feel like being very unfair if I started hot-headedly accusing people based on some gut-feelings or the words X used to say he'll be off for the rest of the day...Ai! This sounds both all too sincere and all too wolvish at the same time.

A Little Green's defense or herself sounded more sincere than anything she has posted for a while. (That, I'm afraid, isn't very much, though.) I still think it is very probable that she is furry, but I might give her the benefit of doubt for one day and vote morm or Sally instead. Anyway, I think we should lynch some of those three and I'm most definitely going to vote one of them. (Which one, I'm not sure.)

"Now, I don't want my voting for you to come back and make me look wolfish, therefore if you give me a valid reason to avoid voting for you I will take it and look my flip-floppy self.... if not, I will have "proven" that I can't be a wolf by this previous 'advice' post"I don't quite see the logic here. Why would anyone assume a wolf couldn't have said what I said?

edit: mass xed

[Macalaure]

Then it is decided.

++A Little Green

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Mac! Kath already voted.

[The Might]

As I promised I am back so 4 Green, 2 Volo and 2 morm
I would have voted for Sally, but as no other votes for her exist, makes little sense. Or will anyone vote too?

[Macalaure]

Mac! Kath already voted.

Ooops. :o


To maintain the appearance of a helpful villager:

Sally -> morm
Farael -> Rikae
Shasta -> Volo
morm -> Volo (Volo 2, morm 1)
Fea -> Lily (Volo 2, morm 1, Lily 1)
Kath -> Lily (Volo 2, Lily 2, morm 1)
Aganzir -> Lily (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 1)
Menel -> morm (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 2)
Volo -> Lily (Lily 4, Volo 2, morm 2)
Legate -> Sally (Lily 4, Volo 2, morm 2, Sally 1)
Brinn -> Lily (Lily 5, Volo 2, morm 2, Sally 1)
Mac -> Lily (Lily 6, Volo 2, morm 2, Sally 1)

[A Little Green]

Fine. Not much time now, and I very much doubt this is going to be of any significance, but

++ Volo