View Full Version : WW XXXXI: With a Twist
mormegil
12-27-2007, 02:18 PM
Here is an up to date and accurate voting count...I think
Valier for Agan (Agan 1)
Legate for Valier (Agan 1, Valier 1)
Boromir for Morm (Agan 1, Valier 1, Morm 1)
Valier retracts Agan and votes Nerwen (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might for Eomer (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen for Valier (Valier 2, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae for Valier (Valier 3, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM for Valier (Valier 4, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac for Morm (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm for Nerwen (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Agan for Mac (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Farael
12-27-2007, 02:19 PM
Alright, I've decided to vote now and use my retraction if I'm around later with a better idea.
You may notice from my previous post I just have no-one pegged as "very suspicious". Right now I need to get a better read on everything that happened today, and I don't know if I'll be able to muster the energy to do that before the deadline. So I'll vote even though I don't like it, for a reason that's coming up.
++Valier
I am voting for her on two lines of reasoning.
First of all, of all my "don't feel so good about" players, she's the one who seems the least helpful. Along with The Might I should say, but my second reason explains why I'm not voting for him. While I understand how hunches work, being a hunch-player myself at times, she's done nothing to win us over and her one attempt at a reasoning seems weak... I know Valier is smart and she COULD make a good case if she wanted.
But the biggest reason for my voting for her is that with the wolves being able to PM during the day and retractable votes, they still have too much control over who gets lynched. Of all the people who have gotten voted so far, Valier is the one I think has the best chance of turning out furry.
If I had to choose whom to lynch, I'd probably get rid of The Might with a similar case as what I have for Valier. He seems to be all over the place and not really contributing much... and his missing of the deadline might've been the reason why Nogrod did not act to save himself. Perhaps he was waiting on Might to do something at the last moment.
Edit: X-ed with everything after my last post
Aganzir
12-27-2007, 02:44 PM
Right now I'm deciding between Aganzir, Legate, and Nerwen for a vote.
And what is your reason for this, if I may ask? The timing of my Nog-vote (the only time Isabell has mentioned me was when she said that was worrying) is maybe a little bit too weak reason to base a vote on.
Macalaure
12-27-2007, 02:46 PM
While I do see where some of those who suspect Valier come from, I fear that lynching her means going the easy way. Yes, she's not being very helpful, but she rarely is early on, and she's being a little confused, too. It seems, however, that some only suspect Valier for being valierish. Of course, I also would very much like to see how her early hunch of Aganzir is going to turn out.
But I don't like lynching Nerwen as well, and I'm less certain of morm's guilt now. :(
Isabellkya
12-27-2007, 03:01 PM
And what is your reason for this, if I may ask? The timing of my Nog-vote (the only time Isabell has mentioned me was when she said that was worrying) is maybe a little bit too weak reason to base a vote on.
I had said I was leaving and going to return before the deadline. That in that particular post, I was trying to get Nerwen out of my head. But I have no problem obliging and relating my issues.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-27-2007, 03:06 PM
If it's the case that Shasta was slain out of fear of his being a Seer, then perhaps a wolf or two was involved in stirring up trouble for him yesterday. He did end up with a few votes, after all, and for rather dubious reasons. I didn't understand at all why Shasta was being picked on.
I'm probably wrong and not everyone acts the same way when a Seer, but I for one am always on the look out for Seer hints in the first few posts; and I am very sure that werewolves are too. So it might be possible that the wolves saw Shasta's rather prophetic musings on Nogrod -- in his first post -- and saw the gifted where there was none.
It might be a stretch but if it's wrong I remain baffled by the choice of kill last night, and there hasn't been too much discussion about it in the village today.
So the votes of Farael and Rikae look most suspicious. Nerwen (who I am still quite suspicious of, but mostly for other reasons) was at least undoubtedly interested in saving herself. Farael and Rikae: I realise that we all have to pick someone (and day 1 is the hardest) but why is it that you decided on this one player, who just happened to be so threatening to the wolves that they killed him despite his accruing more votes than any villager other than Nogrod?
Just curious.
Isabellkya
12-27-2007, 03:29 PM
Aganzir - You preferred to go with voting for either Nogrod or Shasta as they were among the lynching candidates. Yet, reasons for voting for either one were not apparent (unless I missed a post).. they seemed rather weak and allusive. It seemed that your objective was to get someone lynched; regardless of who it was. You voted Nogrod, but stated you would switch to Shasta if neccesary. What do you mean neccesary? If the voting had switched and it looked like Shasta would be a sure lynch?
You then even went as far as to threaten Shasta with a vote; if he didn't switch over to [b]Nogrod[/]. This implies more the need for a lynch. Why attack Shasta when he voted in regards to self preservation? Others voted to save others; as well as I believe Nerwen voted to save herself. Where is the threatening in terms of those people who voted in regards to preservation?
Drat, time is running away and I must vote.
++ Nerwen
For previously stated reasons.
x'd with Eomer.
Farael
12-27-2007, 03:29 PM
From my part, I can say I voted for Shasta as it was a "safe" vote... not safe as in "I won't get suspected over it" but rather safe in a "well, he's been all over the place, I don't think he's adding to the village and so even if I'm wrong I won't be getting rid of a player who's been coming up with valuable discussion"
Conversely, Nogrod did not look good to me, but I wasn't sold on his guilt and I felt I could've used another day's worth of his posts to determine whether I should vote for him or not.
As it turns out, I was far off :rolleyes:
Keep in mind that hindsight is 20-20 but at the time Shasta did not look as Ordo as he does now ;)
Edit: X-ed with... ugh, this doesn't show the last few posts. Ok, whoever wrote after Eomer
Edit: Isabell
Farael
12-27-2007, 03:32 PM
Votes (Based on Morm's list)
Valier for Agan (Agan 1)
Legate for Valier (Agan 1, Valier 1)
Boromir for Morm (Agan 1, Valier 1, Morm 1)
Valier retracts Agan and votes Nerwen (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might for Eomer (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen for Valier (Valier 2, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae for Valier (Valier 3, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM for Valier (Valier 4, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac for Morm (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm for Nerwen (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Agan for Mac (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farel for Valier (Valier 5, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Isabell for Nerwen (Valier 5, Morm 2, Nerwen 3, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Aganzir
12-27-2007, 03:40 PM
Isabell, see my post #216 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=540911&postcount=216). I explained my reasons for voting Nogrod and "threatening" Shasta, but if you are curious, I can explain it again with more details.
mormegil
12-27-2007, 03:41 PM
From my part, I can say I voted for Shasta as it was a "safe" vote... not safe as in "I won't get suspected over it" but rather safe in a "well, he's been all over the place, I don't think he's adding to the village and so even if I'm wrong I won't be getting rid of a player who's been coming up with valuable discussion"
Conversely, Nogrod did not look good to me, but I wasn't sold on his guilt and I felt I could've used another day's worth of his posts to determine whether I should vote for him or not.
As it turns out, I was far off :rolleyes:
Keep in mind that hindsight is 20-20 but at the time Shasta did not look as Ordo as he does now ;)
Edit: X-ed with... ugh, this doesn't show the last few posts. Ok, whoever wrote after Eomer
Edit: Isabell
Woah! This post throws up red flags all over in my mind. He seems overly genuine, if you take my meaning. I was getting a good vibe on Farael for the most part until this. Granted, it's not enough to make me change my vote but I think it needs to be mentioned. Everything in it seems contrived. I'm not sure why, at this point, he feels the need to explain his vote; especially when there hasn't been many, if any, questions raised about it. Then the 'As it turns out and hindsight being 20/20' lines really bother me.
We have only Zali, Kath and Eomer who haven't voted...obviously Zali isn't likely to vote:rolleyes:
Farael
12-27-2007, 03:44 PM
Woah! This post throws up red flags all over in my mind. He seems overly genuine, if you take my meaning.
Hahaha Morm I think you and I will never see eye-to-eye. "overly genuine"? please... and the reason I answered Eomer's question is quite simple.
I'm here. I don't have the energy to spend re-reading today's posts. I want to help the village. I can help by explaining something that another villager asked.
Simple as that, if you want to start jumping at shadows be my guest, I'm not going to argue with you until I get a feel that you are furry.
Macalaure
12-27-2007, 03:51 PM
So it doesn't seem as if today's vote outcome is going to change. I'm not going to sacrifice Nerwen to save Valier, so I'm not going to retract. Let's hope the best.
I think that, lately, Aganzir is a little too confident that no convincing case can be made against her. We shall see.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-27-2007, 03:56 PM
I'm not too bothered who goes: Valier or Nerwen. They both seem a little suspicious to me, and I have no-one else I feel stronger about. But voting Nerwen might make for an interesting last couple of minutes.
++NERWEN
Farael
12-27-2007, 03:58 PM
I'm not too bothered who goes: Valier or Nerwen. They both seem a little suspicious to me, and I have no-one else I feel stronger about. But voting Nerwen might make for an interesting last couple of minutes.
++NERWEN
Now Valier still leads with 5 votes, Nerwen is the runner-up with 4.... a couple minutes to go
Nerwen
12-27-2007, 04:03 PM
I rather thought Eomer was going to vote me again.
Would anyone consider switching to Valier now, in case Kath jumps in and finishes me off?
Macalaure
12-27-2007, 04:04 PM
I think the deadline has passed already, so it wouldn't count anyway, I think.
the phantom
12-27-2007, 04:08 PM
Voting is over.
Val's death will be up shortly.
the phantom
12-27-2007, 04:31 PM
Valier could only shake her head as the village turned against her. Fools! she thought. Don't they recognize when someone is trying to help?
As the villagers closed on her, she drew her Hunting knife and threw it forcefully into their midst. At this nearly every villager rushed her, fearing the further flinging of fast flying blades. But rather than fight she slumped to her knees and accepted the blows that began raining down upon her.
I tried, M'Lord... I tried...
One by one the villagers turned away from Valier's broken body, knowing that they had not lynched a Werewolf. At last only Azaelia remained in the middle of the square, seemingly doubled over in grief.
"Come on, m'dear," said Rikae, walking towards Azaelia. When she reached Azaelia, she placed a gentle hand on her shoulder. "Hurry, my apprentice. It will be night soon."
But Azaelia did not move. Eomer strode over and shook her slightly. When he released her, she swayed sideways and spilled out onto her side. The villagers gasped. Protruding from Azaelia's chest was Valier's Hunting knife.
"Look at the hilt!" shouted Legate. But there was no need- everyone had spotted it simultaneously. There was a symbol on both sides. They all knew it well, for it was the symbol of Werewolf Hunters everywhere.
And then night arrived, more threatening than ever.
Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Nerwen- miller
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- Day 2 Hunter victim (VILLAGER)
IT IS NOW NIGHT 3. YOU MAY NOT POST.
the phantom
12-28-2007, 04:09 PM
The village did not sleep peacefully. During the night there was lightning and thunder, but not from the sky. It was in the clouds that had settled around the village. But it was no normal thunder and lightning. The light was brighter, and whiter, and the thunder was the booming of deep voices speaking words of power, and then crashing together. The voice from the outside was assaulting the fog.
The villagers stayed indoors and shook with terror, fearing the outcome of the battle, and hoping that Werewolves would not seek shelter within their homes.
Shortly before dawn a loud howl was heard, followed by a great deal of noise- the shuffling of feet, the breaking of wood, the thump of bodies landing heavily on the ground, but before it all the unmistakable ringing of a sword being drawn from its sheath.
After several minutes of clatter, a loud yelping was heard, as if some beast had been hurt. And then... silence.
As the dawn came, veiled and cool, the villagers emerged from their houses and were met with a surprise.
No one was missing.
"A victory has been had!" cried the voice outside the encompassing smokes.
"Nay!" answered the fog. "It is I who have had the victory this night."
"So say you!" returned the voice.
And the sun rose above the fog, and the village began to speak.
Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Nerwen- miller
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- Day 2 Hunter victim (VILLAGER)
IT IS NOW DAY 3. YOU MAY POST.
Farael
12-28-2007, 04:23 PM
Hurray for the ranger! If I read the happenings of the night properly, he has defended one of our people successfuly.
I am posting mostly to say that I'm fairly under the weather and my activity level today will probably be low. Now with your excuse I'm going to go away and... craft some conspiracy theories? :p
The Saucepan Man
12-28-2007, 05:07 PM
Day 2 votes:
Valier: ++Aganzir (Aganzir 1)
Legate: ++Valier (Aganzir 1, Valier 1)
Boro: ++morm (Aganzir 1, Valier 1, morm 1)
Valier: --Aganzir, ++Nerwen (Valier 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might: ++Eomer (Valier 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen: ++Valier (Valier 2, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: ++Valier (Valier 3, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM: ++Valier (Valier 4, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac: ++morm (Valier 4, morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm: ++Nerwen (Valier 4, morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Valier 4, morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: ++Valier (Valier 5, morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Valier 5, morm 2, Nerwen 3, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Valier 5, morm 2, Nerwen 4, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Did not vote: Kath, Azaelia
Hurray for the ranger! If I read the happenings of the night properly, he has defended one of our people successfuly.That looks to be what happened, and I hope that you are right, but the phanto-mod is a tricksy one, and the Night's events might be interpreted differently. Unlikely, I admit, but we cannot be absolutely certain.
I am afraid to say that I will not be around much toDay, for I have an appointment with my mind's eye to watch a musical enactment of events many years hence on a stage in a strange place called London. I hope, however, to be back before the deadline and I will be around now for a while yet.
The Saucepan Man
12-28-2007, 05:22 PM
A few things that I noticed from the back end of yesterDay:
You know, Sauce, until now you were the one I considered to look most innocent. And now you put me on the top of your suspect list (even though you voted Valier) based on that - a possibility? You can't be serious...Yes, indeed, it was a possibility. But, to my mind, there are no probabilities just yet, only possibilities. And it seemed the most likely to me out of a range of possibilities. As I explained at the time, I voted for Valier because I didn't see much prospect of my top suspect (you) being lynched and I wanted my vote to count. Hmm, who else didn't vote for their top suspect? Ah yes, it was you, wasn't it? :rolleyes:
It's funny that all the people who keep on suspecting me don't dare to put their money where their mouths are. The way that I am thinking at the moment, I might just take you up on that dare toDay.
Would anyone consider switching to Valier now, in case Kath jumps in and finishes me off?What are we to make of Nerwen's plea here, just after the deadline? Is it indicative of guilt, innocence, or neither? It sounds genuine to me, but it may well have been a bluff. The problem is, Nerwen has been right there in the thick of things in both Day's voting. I think that it was morm who said yesterDay that Nerwen's death might help to make things clearer. It may sound callous, but that is even more the case now, whether she be Wolfish or not.
Boromir88
12-28-2007, 05:40 PM
I say we lynch either morm or Isabell today...either one I'd be happy with. If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...
Macalaure
12-28-2007, 05:48 PM
As I explained at the time, I voted for Valier because I didn't see much prospect of my top suspect (you) being lynched and I wanted my vote to count. Hmm, who else didn't vote for their top suspect? Ah yes, it was you, wasn't it?
Hang on, that doesn't coincide with what you said before you voted.
Currently, it’s a toss up for me between Mac and Valier.
Yes, I was your top suspect before, but at the time you voted, you claimed Valier and I were even. You gave Valier the nod because of her number of votes, but you suspected her the same as me. Also, at the time you voted there were still enough people who were suspicious of me left to vote. Had I really been your top suspect, then a vote for me wouldn't have been in vain. Why are you twisting the facts?
Isabellkya
12-28-2007, 05:57 PM
Aren't we a little quick to be attempting a bath in blood so soon after our piece of good fortune Boro? Though I caught what you've done.. and it is a bit strange I must say.
Boromir88
12-28-2007, 06:04 PM
I just like getting to business Isabell. Now, if you be innocent I'm sure you will put it to good use and I will assure you I won't call for your lynching. If not, that's a different story...
The Saucepan Man
12-28-2007, 06:06 PM
I say we lynch either morm or Isabell today...either one I'd be happy with.Care to explain why Boro? I could go either way on both of them, but I have stronger suspects at present.
Yes, I was your top suspect before, but at the time you voted, you claimed Valier and I were even.Actually, as your helpful quote indicates, I said it was a toss up between you. You because you were (are) my top suspect, Valier because she was my second suspect and my vote for her was more likely to count. :rolleyes:
Also, at the time you voted there were still enough people who were suspicious of me left to vote. Had I really been your top suspect, then a vote for me wouldn't have been in vain. Why are you twisting the facts?I knew that Aganzir would probably vote for you. But, of those left to vote, it looked to me unlikely that anyone else would. I looked in for the last few minutes up to the deadline and would most likely have switched my vote to you had there been any possibility of lynching you.
I am not twisting the facts. Merely explaining my own thought processes. Why are you so eager to (mis)interpret them? Actually, I should say reinterpret them, as you clearly thought yetserDay that you were top of my suspect list and, on the basis of it, commented on me having voted for Valier instead of you!
Macalaure
12-28-2007, 06:15 PM
A quick look at the votes
Legate for Valier - an early vote which appears rather confused, but ordo-ishly confused.
Boro for morm - innocentish, I would say.
TM for Eomer- again a confused-looking vote, but in his case I'm not so sure whether innocently or not.
Nerwen - there's not really have the best reasoning behind her vote. But it doesn't look as confused as Legate, so the vote doesn't look exactly good.
Rikae for Valier - the vote which got the waggon up and rolling. Third votes for innocents look bad by default, but would Wolf-Rikae put herself into such a situation? Among morm, Nerwen, and Eomer there must've been another innocent to vote for which would have looked less bad. I'm not sure about Rikae. She bears watching.
SpM for Valier - same as above, a Saucepan Wolf could have easily found someone better to vote for. Still worth watching, though.
morm for Nerwen - Valier's innocence makes morm look better, I think. Another vote for Valier, easy to justify, would have saved him (4-2 at the time). Of course he'd easily be gutsy enough to risk it and not get his hands dirty.
Aganzir for Mac - yes, she goes along with her suspicion, but what she ultimately does is to throw her vote away.
Farael for Valier - if morm or Nerwen are wolves, then Farael likely is one, too. Otherwise, it's just a safe vote. A little suspicious.
Isabell and Eomer for Nerwen - if we only knew Nerwen's role.
No vote that screams wolf, but a lot that are worthy of watching based on them, I think.
Macalaure
12-28-2007, 06:27 PM
Actually, as your helpful quote indicates, I said it was a toss up between you. You because you were (are) my top suspect, Valier because she was my second suspect and my vote for her was more likely to count.
I knew that Aganzir would probably vote for you. But, of those left to vote, it looked to me unlikely that anyone else would. I looked in for the last few minutes up to the deadline and would most likely have switched my vote to you had there been any possibility of lynching you.
I am not twisting the facts. Merely explaining my own thought processes. Why are you so eager to (mis)interpret them? Actually, I should say reinterpret them, as you clearly thought yetserDay that you were top of my suspect list and, on the basis of it, commented on me having voted for Valier instead of you!I just reread your vote post to make sure I didn't get it wrong, but I don't think I did. It might well be that this was your thought process, but that doesn't get clear to me from your post alone, and that is all I can interpret. As for my comment yesterday, I was wondering why two people who suspected me in a row suddenly put other people at the top of their lists just before they voted. I was also joking a little (note smiley).
The Saucepan Man
12-28-2007, 06:33 PM
Actually, troubling though you are to me Mac, I pretty much agree with your list. Except that I would not be too quick to dismiss Legate’s vote as ordo-ish. He was the first to raise suspicion of Valier, based on her lack of reasoning for her accusations (an easy argument for a Wolf to make) and the first to get the ball rolling against her.
Of all the votes cast, the Might’s vote is the most redolent of a ‘throw-away’ vote. I can’t recall many, if any, expressing much strong suspicion of Eomer yesterDay. Aganzir’s vote less so, since Mac had attracted a fair amount of comment and she had made clear her distrust of him. However, as I said, my own feeling was that few would vote for him, so it does have a ‘throw-away’ air about it. One thing I am fairly sure of, though. It is a very unlikely Wolf-on-Wolf vote. :D
I just reread your vote post to make sure I didn't get it wrong, but I don't think I did. It might well be that this was your thought process, but that doesn't get clear to me from your post alone, and that is all I can interpret.Fine, but it seems to me to be a strange basis upon which to go accusing someone of twisting the facts.
Macalaure
12-28-2007, 07:30 PM
Alright, Aganzir and Rikae wanted to see my reasons to be suspicious of Aganzir again. Let's get over with it already:
Aganzir
- she suspects each of the people that suspected Nogrod, throwing wolf-on-wolves everywhere - a very smart way make people back away from Noggie without appearing like defending him (126, 131)
- then she decides to give a crucial vote to Nogrod - her top suspect's (me) top suspect. Usually, an innocent wouldn't like to do that, but the wolf-on-wolf comes in handy. About the Shasta-thing, I bought her explanation, so I'm not going to repeat that part.
- recall the voting for Nogrod. Me and Saucepan gave him early votes, Shasta and Legate later retractions. Aganzir's vote was the only one which came during the "general" voting. If there was a wolvish vote for Nogrod, and I'm sure there was, then it was Aganzir's.
That was all I had yesterday. Yes, it's not much, I know. However, we're talking about Aganzir here. As she confidently pointed out herself, she hasn't ever gotten a vote before - but she has been a wolf twice already!
-
because you'd rather I spent my time defending myself than going on suspecting you.
....
Trying to make me use my energy on defending myself rather than suspecting him.
No need to repeat it, everybody heard you. It doesn't make more sense by repetition. But talking of suspecting me, may I in turn ask you what your case against me was made of again? ;)
All I remember is the possibility of Nog and me being wolves and a few far-fetched interpretations.
- her reaction to Isabell is very interesting. She seemed to be rather cool, though determined, about my case. But then she tries to drive away Izzy from suspecting her quite aggressively. It seems to me like she thought she got away from being suspected by more than one person, and was annoyed that there actually turned out to be more.
I would also like to remind everybody that Aganzir was Valier's first hunch of the last day.
Fine, but it seems to me to be a strange basis upon which to go accusing someone of twisting the facts.Maybe twisting the facts was too strong. But the way I saw it, you tried to change the reasoning behind your vote - which is not an unsuspicious vote, after all.
The Might
12-28-2007, 08:24 PM
SPM, you must of course also acknowledge that my vote for Eomer came at a very early point as I was unsure that I would be able to go online till the deadline, which as seen I was not.
And I was actually hoping that others might agree, but as seen none did.
So please don't try to twist things as you want them to sound like.
I do feel a bit better about him after reading the last post. It's good that he gave us his thoughts for a change.
I guess we won't find out who was the wolves' target...that would be interesting.
To SPM, I thought that way because Kath defended Shasta after Nerwen's attack. So it kind of figured that if Shasta, who I did suspect at that time was a wolf, so would be Kath.
Farael
12-28-2007, 08:38 PM
You know, the more I think of it, the more the argument between Mac and SPM worries me. At this point I'm feeling like one of them is a wolf trying to get the other one in trouble.
Question is, whom?
SPM has been calm and collected throughout the game, he's not slipped once. Mac has a swagger about him that I don't like, I'd lean to think he's the wolf on this pair if it wasn't for the whole mess about Nogrod
However, I took the liberty of looking through Mac's posts on the first day, and he accused Nogwolf pretty much from the get-go.
I am starting to think it was a wolfish ploy gone bad. Or is it gone good? it'll be all but impossible to get Mac lynched.
Yes, I am back-tracking over what I said yesterday, but I begin to think that we'd be better off without Mac. He's going to be a point of contention until the last day, he has been somewhat helpful but I just don't like the way he's acting (and reacting to others).
The Nogrod situation gives me pause, but the more I see him argue with SPM and attack him on weak grounds, the more Mac incriminates himself in my eyes.
mormegil
12-28-2007, 11:54 PM
What are we to make of Nerwen's plea here, just after the deadline? Is it indicative of guilt, innocence, or neither? It sounds genuine to me, but it may well have been a bluff. The problem is, Nerwen has been right there in the thick of things in both Day's voting. I think that it was morm who said yesterDay that Nerwen's death might help to make things clearer. It may sound callous, but that is even more the case now, whether she be Wolfish or not.
Saucie, the way I took it is genuine too, but genuine for a desperate wolf.
I say we lynch either morm or Isabell today...either one I'd be happy with. If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...
I don't remember you bringing up Isabell yesterday...I haven't had a look back though but I think you are on a dangerous course Boromir. You seem to be focusing solely on one person. Of course, that happens to be me which doesn't bother me in that regard but rather it bothers me because you seem unwilling to even entertain the notion that others might be suspicious. I fully believe you are not the seer as if you were you would have dreamt of me and left me alone. As it stands I think you are a crazy innocent on a mission that will prove catastrophic if you continue to persue it because, like I said you are innocent, I believe, too so if you kill me it will increase the suspicion around you and only lead to your ultimate demise.
On that note Boro, I don't feel you've given any real substantive answer as to why you suspect me.
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 12:54 AM
You know, the more I think of it, the more the argument between Mac and SPM worries me. At this point I'm feeling like one of them is a wolf trying to get the other one in trouble.~Farael
Or they are two talkative innocents who are simply lost. That happens quite a bit, when you get a couple of "leaders" they end up turning on eachother. One gets lynched and then the other one is as good as dead the next day...come to find they're both innocent.
For the moment, SpM looks reasonable and fine. I particulary like his points about Kath yesterday and so far today I've seen a Sauce that I like to see. A thoughtful, considering all possibilities, person...someone good to have to counter the stubborn, "judge by feeling," type of person that I am.
As far as Mac, I figure he spotted a wolf on Day 1, might as well trust him, until he is horribly wrong. I mean if he is a wolf, he'll reach a point where he can't keep lynching his buddies and innocents will start dying off. The game I referenced before when Nogrod casted two crucial votes to get his pals lynched. Well, what finished him off was simply, I was dead after the 2nd wolf died...leaving Noggie as the lone wolf. But the intellegent villagers figured out..."wait a second, a couple days have gone by, why is Nogrod still alive? Why hasn't the last wolf killed the most assumed looking innocent yet?" Catching onto Nogrod isn't going to give Mac a free pass to the end...trust me on that, but I don't see why we should buy into this quacked out theory when there's other "theories" which are far more possible. I mean from the looks of it you're better off if you just keep lynching innocents, but as soon as you catch a wolf the automatic reaction is..."Oh he's gotta be a wolf." When really it was someone noticed something was off.
Care to explain why Boro? I could go either way on both of them, but I have stronger suspects at present.~SpM
Sure thing...though I think I jumped the gun on Isabell. That was based off of a certain person's judgement, from yesterday, but as far as her post today soon enough I'll know her true identity. So, I recant Isabell, but substitute Aganzir.
As far as morm, on Day 1 I thought he was playing a bit conservatively...not what I typically expect from morm. He didn't seem to be too committal to anyone. He accused Rikae of acting wolfishly by tossing around accusations, but in the meantime poked accusations at Nerwen, Farael, Rikae, and me.
Then on Day 2, I followed up with what Rikae pointed out, that he came out pushing the Mac-Nogrod stuff; something I'm not buying into. Then in post 204, as Mac observes, he acts as if he is backing off of suspecting me saying he felt I was being "genuine." When not 15 minutes ago in the post before he was prodding suspicion at me:
If Boro or Eomer (not both) is a wolf that could explain why they didn't vote Nogrod but I think I'm off base and geting into unrealistic scenarios...however with that said Eomer and Boromir are perfect candidates to pull off the most unrealistic of scenarios.
In fact, me being a "bold wolf" that would do unrealistic things seems to be something that morm likes to remind everyone of...from Day 1:
Boro is an incredibly bold player who would definately play a bluff like this if he were a wolf hoping to smoke out the true seer, thinking the seer might be a bit rash and reveal him/herself prematurely. Of course, it could be that Boro is simply an innocent and is provoking reaction. I would think the latter to be true but with his quick vote of Kath, who hasn't acted overly strange to me, it adds a bit to the overall suspicion. (Post 147)
++Boro
I really do believe he is playing a rather bold game, it's when he's at his best, and I've seen him before do things like this and get away with it. He is in the top 3 to 5 most bold players. What he has said doesn't add up to me and is the one who sticks out to me the most at this point. (Post 153)
And into Day 2, after he had apparently backed off of me:
Boromir seems rather cocky about the whole thing. A few comments have been given and the manner in which he presents himself doesn't sit well with me. I also find it odd that he basically refuses to believe the possibility that Mac/Nogrod were conspiring simply because 'it's never been done before'. Seems rather weak and that he's not open to other possibilities. His votes have been without any real reason. Something stinks of wet fur with that one.
In fact this whole post (post 231) just looks like a wolf. Morm, as observed in Day 1, just looks extremely non-commital. He blamed his "weak" accusations on Day 1, but by this time we were well into Day 2, and he is still doing the tip-toeing around stuff. Or is just making general statements like "Legate seems innocent and helpful." and "Eomer ,while completely touched in the head, I think is innocent." I do that on Day 1 to get some discussion going, but as said this is well into Day 2 now.
Then finally, he makes a strong argued case against someone (post 245), but who was it against? Nerwen. Nerwen has caused confusion and has been a top candidate right since this village took off, so sorry to say this, but that's something that wouldn't be hard to do.
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 01:23 AM
You seem to be focusing solely on one person. Of course, that happens to be me which doesn't bother me in that regard but rather it bothers me because you seem unwilling to even entertain the notion that others might be suspicious.~morm
I keep things simple, take one wolf at a time. Ask Farael, he knows, when I get into the mode of thinking I caught someone, I will continue to attack until I know said person's identity...whether they end up dead or I find out by other means.
I fully believe you are not the seer as if you were you would have dreamt of me and left me alone.
What is with people thinking I'm trying to pose as the seer?
As it stands I think you are a crazy innocent on a mission that will prove catastrophic if you continue to persue it because, like I said you are innocent, I believe, too so if you kill me it will increase the suspicion around you and only lead to your ultimate demise.
If that was a threat to back off or else...it didn't work. We all meet our demise eventually. It's fruitless to try and lynch me, and getting killed by the wolves wouldn't bother me either.
On that note Boro, I don't feel you've given any real substantive answer as to why you suspect me.
So, you give me a scolding, dismissing me as a crazy innocent, but you still feel the need to add that last sentence? Do you not feel safe enough if you try to convince people I'm spiralling down into a self-destructive path? You have to tack on that extra bit that I haven't given anything of "substance?"
mormegil
12-29-2007, 03:08 AM
Honestly Boro, I don't get it. So you suspect me because I've suspected you and pointed out your ability at being a very bold wolf?
You suspect me on Day 1 because I was, in your opinion, non-commital and not going for the kill as much. I have spoken at this sufficiently I think as it was an unusual Day 1 to begin with.
So on day 2 when I point out the possible Nogrod/Mac connection you accuse me for bringing that up, which I did, though I don't see the problem with it. I presume you suspect me for the exact opposite reason you did on Day 1 which doesn't make much sense. I stated something that seemed, at the time, needful to point out. I still don't feel too assured of Mac, but regardless I fail to see why the things you've said about me are sufficient for you to focus solely on one person. And no, that wasn't a threat so to speak more of me trying to speak some wisdom and remind you that there are other members of our village :rolleyes:.
I'm fairly tired but hope to get some analysis of others done today, though as it stands Nerwen is still my prime suspect and how she finished the day yesterday didn't help decrease that.
mormegil
12-29-2007, 03:35 AM
So I had a post by post analysis of Kath prepare and somehow the whole thing was erased. (I'm on my laptop and sometimes when I hit backspace it makes the webpage go back so I lost the whole post:mad:) Anyway instead of repeating it I will sumarize. Kath basically hasn't said much. Only 6 posts, which is one of the reasons I'm looking at her. First because I'm concerned about her and The Might only posting 6 times as it's easy to fly under the radar.
She mainly has spent her time in giving some weak and some fairly solid points against Nerwen and defending herself from the early attack from Boromir. It is in post 222 that I feel she is most innocent and makes me feel better about her. She seems very sincere and genuine here and not desparate. I really do believe that she is simply out of time and is frustrated by her lack of participation though I would like to hear from her today and see a vote as we didn't get one yesterday, and one more no vote would mean death to her.
Anyway, I hope to look at The Might next.
mormegil
12-29-2007, 04:14 AM
Post 86 is an odd post indeed. I'm not really sure why he is saying what he is saying here. He starts by going after Shasta a bit for going after Nerwen and defending some IC talk. Then he says something about TP having players post certain things??? I don't get this bit at all. He talks about the twists and is glad day 1 is longer.
Post 116 talks briefly about Nerwen and Shasta. He thinks Nerwen is innocent enough and Shasta guilty. He concludes that if Shasta is guilty so is Kath which makes Legate innocent:confused: Feels that it is too early to begin making too many connections between players but already made the Shasta-Kath-Legate connection.
Post 117 is a quick follow-up to a question Eomer made about what Nerwen said and thinks she is giving sound advice and doesn't appear wolfish. He seems to be doing a lot of Nerwen defending already. He ends the post with this:
I could of course be wrong...
This is always a bit worrisome but innocents do this too.
Also, it is important to note that there is not vote on day 1.
Post 198 he talks in circles and I don't really follow what he said here. He does apologize for a no vote and says he was confused on the time, which being how unusual day 1's time was is moderately understandable.
Post 230 again he defends Nerwen and begins to be suspicious of Eomer, which came out of nowhere. Mainly he suspects him because of his Day 1 vote for Nerwen and votes for Eomer.
This is really odd. In almost every post so far he has mentioned Nerwen in a positive light. Why is he so intent upon saying she appears innocent in every post?
Post 283
I do feel a bit better about him after reading the last post. It's good that he gave us his thoughts for a change.
I think he is refering to Eomer but this is rich coming from somebody who has only posted 6 times and all very short and insubstantial.
I guess we won't find out who was the wolves' target...that would be interesting.
These lines always scare me, as did Farael's first post of the day, as they seem to contrived to be sincere.
To SPM, I thought that way because Kath defended Shasta after Nerwen's attack. So it kind of figured that if Shasta, who I did suspect at that time was a wolf, so would be Kath.
And yet, this is somebody who has defended Nerwen, whom I suspect greatly, in basically every post. He does so indirectly in this post with the above quote.
Conclusion:
I really don't trust The Might. I've seen nothing of any substance, a missed vote, constant defense of somebody I highly suspect, an odd out of the blue vote for Eomer who I think innocent, a contrived sounding statement about who was protected, and just a low post volume. This all adds up to put The Might high on the suspect list.
Isabellkya
12-29-2007, 04:31 AM
Post 86 is an odd post indeed. I'm not really sure why he is saying what he is saying here. He starts by going after Shasta a bit for going after Nerwen and defending some IC talk. Then he says something about TP having players post certain things??? I don't get this bit at all. He talks about the twists and is glad day 1 is longer.
I think I can shed some light on this aspect which you seem to be confused about; as I'm familiar with it from other games I've played. It is referred to as a posting requirement. It can be anything, including a certain word in one post each day; or lyrics of a song.. practically anything the MC can imagine. I once had the unfortunate task of having to make a post each day in 1337 speak.. which was ech. Sometimes, other players can give you posting requirements.. all depending on roles and the MC. Typically, if you fulfill your posting requirements, you get 'gifts' or special powers; which can range from anything the MC fancies to give you. It can be a shield raise, a vigilante daykill, a resurrection...etc. However I think it would be odd to see such things here at BD; as it is a different game setup.
Back to more current things.. I saw somewhere on the thread, but couldn't find the actual post; but someone made the comment of Boro being a controversial player. I definately think I see a bit of that here in this game.. can't exactly compare to other games.. but definately something to watch out for.
mm kay, I'll continue reading now.
I will be back for the deadline. I WILL. But just in case I'm not.
++NERWEN
Because I don't dare not vote and I am at least suspicious of her. I WILL be back!
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-29-2007, 05:03 AM
So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim. Or am I missing something about the narrative?
The events of yesterday were overall rather confusing. I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules). Valier obviously killed ordo Azaelia, but this was clearly to tie different threads of the game together. Azaelia, due to lack of involvement, had to perish. But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf?
Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?
mormegil
12-29-2007, 05:33 AM
So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim. Or am I missing something about the narrative?
The events of yesterday were overall rather confusing. I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules). Valier obviously killed ordo Azaelia, but this was clearly to tie different threads of the game together. Azaelia, due to lack of involvement, had to perish. But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf?
Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?
I hadn't actually thought of that. However, if that were the case I think Farael may have been it due to his first statement today. It leads us all to believe that it was the ranger and not the cursed.
I had thought for sure it was the ranger based upon what was written but upon closer examination I'm not so sure...
but before it all the unmistakable ringing of a sword being drawn from its sheath.
After several minutes of clatter, a loud yelping was heard, as if some beast had been hurt. And then... silence.
As the dawn came, veiled and cool, the villagers emerged from their houses and were met with a surprise.
No one was missing.
"A victory has been had!" cried the voice outside the encompassing smokes.
"Nay!" answered the fog. "It is I who have had the victory this night."
"So say you!" returned the voice
The sword is what convinces me that the ranger helped...however reading the other part more closely than I did at first makes me wonder. It is very ambiguous on both. Either way, we still have some wolves to kill so I don't want to get too hung up on this, though if it is true that we have a new wolf that means that the ranger does not know an innocent as previously thought.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 05:46 AM
I don’t have much time right now, but I will do what I can. Some notes on people:
Mac– I felt, on the first Day, that there was something false about Nogrod and Mac’s interactions. Mac’s attempts to cast suspicion on other people also seem rather forced. Against that– well he did deliver a wolf. I think people are dismissing that much too lightly. I mean, a wolf might want to lynch another wolf to appear innocent– but then, you know, an innocent might want to lynch a wolf too. If I had to choose between voting Mac and SpM, I’d perhaps choose Mac– but I'd rather not have to.
Eomer: Did anyone else notice his remark at the close of yesterDay, that he didn't care whether Valier or I got lynched? Is that because he suspected us both, as he said, or because from his point of view it really didn't matter– i.e. he's a wolf and doesn't care which innocent gets it? This is just a thought, mind you. His explanation of his reasons for trying to save Nogrod seemed pretty genuine to me.
Kath: I made my case against her yesterDay. I've got nothing to add to it, except the way she started to back off her suspicions of me, but has now voted me– is this because SpM said something about the way she seemed to be carefully giving herself room to back down?
Now for my current main suspect. Let’s look at some highlights of Mormegil’s career–
He casts random suspicions around:
Farael seems the most, in your face, vocal person which always makes me wonder, but to be fair it seems fairly standard for him and I do tend to be a bit suspicious of him but if I were to pick a suspect now it would be him.
He suspects other people for casting random suspicions around; suspects anyone who disagrees with him; is highly jumpy and defensive:
I'm not entirely sure what you are talking about here Nerwen. You seem rather bothered that I voiced some suspicion over Farael and yet what are we supposed to do? How is this?
I'm suspicious of nobody and everybody must be innocent?
I stated that it was a stretch but I might as well state the one minor suspicion I had.
On the other hand, Rikae, in her two posts, seems rather overly eager and antsy to throw suspicion all over, much like a wolf would do.
Honestly these are weak suspicions but right now Rikae is the top then Nerwen and Farael rounding off 2 and 3 respectively. (Note that prior to this he had shown no signs of suspecting me at all– apparently it's straight-out revenge.)
He attacks other people for being defensive:
The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.
His latest is another attack on someone for having a different opinion:
I really don't trust The Might. I've seen nothing of any substance, a missed vote, constant defense of somebody I highly suspect, an odd out of the blue vote for Eomer who I think innocent, a contrived sounding statement about who was protected, and just a low post volume. This all adds up to put The Might high on the suspect list.
Now, The Might has not "constantly defended" me, or anything like it. And the vote for Eomer was hardly unreasonable, given Eomer's last-minute attempt to save a known wolf! (I myself think Eomer is probably innocent, but that's not the point.)
In conclusion– I don't know if Morm's a wolf or just a serious hypocrite. I think he's a wolf.
EDIT: X'd with Mormegil and Eomer.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-29-2007, 05:55 AM
All right, people, I'm back and I hope to give some time to sorting my thoughts out during the rest of toDay.
First, a response:
And to Legate, this has something to do with the fact that I have vacation now and thus a lot more time on my hands. So instead of learning for some test I can think a bit more rather then just post quickly.
Good to hear that, if there is really nothing more behind it, then it's okay. Yet I must say one thing that troubles me, TM - if you have so much time on your hands, why do your posts stay mostly on jumping between three or four people and nothing to say on others? It looks like programmedly turning around several suspects.
But, let's move now on to other things.
I was somewhat doubtful about Mac's theory about Aganzir, nevertheless, his arguments as summed up in one of his last posts sound quite convincing. I, for one, am the last person to base my suspicions on what someone else says. However, after re-reading Agan's posts, I am getting the bad feeling that maybe this clever Agan-wolf came among us once again. But I thought also about her voting: on Day 1 she voted Nog, as we all know. On Day 2, she voted for Mac - and that was absolutely throwaway vote at that time. I thought that maybe, had she been a wolf, after the 1st-Day fall of her packmate, she decided to back up a little and hide out of sight, while (eventually) building up a case against Mac for further use. I could also add that this move will also serve well if Mac is a wolf - a safe vote for a fellow wolf (as opposite to unsafe-going vote on Day 1). Of course I don't want to overcombinate things, yet this is also a possibility (though I am inclined to belive Mac innocent right now).
Concerning the other players. I must say it is quite hard for me to make my mind about the "high-class" vocal players, as there's too many of them: including dead Nogrod, with SpM and Boro and Mac and morm and Farael this makes almost half of the village. It would be quite improbable that a wolf wouldn't be among them (although if he weren't, the worse for us). But I must say these are very dangerous waters for me, as the discussions are tangled and it is hard to spot anything. Who intrigues me the most currently is SpM. YesterDay, he supported the suspicions on Valier short after it was voiced, which could be this "voice of Saruman"-tactics without actually voting himself, and when the bandwaggon was rolling, he conviniently jumped in. On the other hand, his vote for Nog on Day 1 was the second one, which on the other hand would speak for his innocence. SpM is clearly not a stupid player and he could have retracted still. What I want to say, mainly: whatever the case, we should not forget SpM (I originally mistyped and wrote RPG :p ), because if Nog's death was orchestrated, this could serve him well.
I am probably going to do a larger analysis of some of these people, if I have the chance, yet this could also mean spending several hours by this (given the length of their posts). Whatever, I will start with SpM and will see.
One word about Nerwen. She looked innocent to me at the beginning, but given her votes and discussions with people, like with Valier and Kath yesterDay she starts to seem more and more suspicious. Yet I would like to say - don't be too hasty, hum hom, because it is also possible that an innocent under pressure (as Nerwen surely is) may start to behave suspiciously. So, I would advise being careful.
Also let me say Rikae's vote yesterDay made me a little wary of her. I don't have any strong suspicion about her, yet she convinently joined the Valier bandwagon at the crucial point and the way she voted, during her quick appearance, moved her to the orange zone for me.
Okay, so I guess that's the main things I had in mind now, will be back later hopefully with some conclusions.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 06:11 AM
So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim.
It's possible. From the narrative I think it's more likely the Ranger was involved– but as you say, it's confusing. Deliberately so, I imagine. All we can do, I suppose, is look out for someone whose behaviour changes.
Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?
I hadn't thought of that. Yes, it's possible. So depending on how you interpret it, the results of last Night might point either directly towards or directly away from those of us whom Valier suspected.
However, I believe Azaelia gave notice in the WW42 admin thread that she was dropping out, so I don't know if what she did counts as failing to vote (which I suppose is what The Phantom meant).
EDIT: X'd with Legate.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 06:21 AM
One word about Nerwen. She looked innocent to me at the beginning, but given her votes and discussions with people, like with Valier and Kath yesterDay she starts to seem more and more suspicious. Yet I would like to say - don't be too hasty, hum hom, because it is also possible that an innocent under pressure (as Nerwen surely is) may start to behave suspiciously. So, I would advise being careful.
Legate, what can I say? I've had to face continual attacks, many of them on grounds I consider very strange (look at the reasons people gave for voting me on Day One). It's getting frustrating– I'd have liked to be able to contribute more to this game, but as it is I've had to spend most of my efforts on just staying alive.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 06:32 AM
I have to go now, so here's my vote:
++Mormegil
For reasons I've already stated.
Given the way Morm reacts to people who even disagree with him, I'm sure he'll do his best to get me lynched in retaliation, but I don't really care. After a careful read through all his posts, I think there’s a very high likelihood that he’s a wolf. Nobody else looks half as furry to me.
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 06:33 AM
I stand corrected about morm...I am way off track with him; he is not a wolf. Sorry bout that, I got carried away, and thought I was onto something when I wasn't.
I think it's time for me to take a serious look at Aganzir, Nerwen, and The Might.
mormegil
12-29-2007, 06:42 AM
I have to go now, so here's my vote:
++Mormegil
For reasons I've already stated.
Given the way Morm reacts to people who even disagree with him, I'm sure he'll do his best to get me lynched in retaliation, but I don't really care. After a careful read through all his posts, I think there’s a very high likelihood that he’s a wolf. Nobody else looks half as furry to me.
I don't get you Nerwen. One of the 'reasons' you think I'm a wolf is that I cast random accusations around in my first post? And then when you question me on it I respond that it is normal to do so and that's suspicious too? I don't believe I am jumpy at all, I think you overreact to quite a bit and that makes you rather jumpy.
I believe I suspected you well before you suspected me and yet you claim that I suspect those who suspect me...it would appear that you have it the wrong way and you suspect those that suspect you.
Your reasons are incredibly weak and you obviously are grasping at straws here Nerwen.
I stand corrected about morm...I am way off track with him; he is not a wolf. Sorry bout that, I got carried away, and thought I was onto something when I wasn't.
Ummm, okay. I agree with you that you are way off track and got carried away but I'd like to know why you suddenly changed your mind as this 180 degree turn is sudden and unexpected I think it would be wise to answer why you think that now after such a vehement attack against me.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 06:43 AM
Boromir, Morm is my top suspect and I just voted him. If you have a compelling reason why he isn't a wolf, I'm ready to listen (I have qualms about lynching innocents)– but please explain.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 06:53 AM
I believe I suspected you well before you suspected me and yet you claim that I suspect those who suspect me...
Actually, you're right. To clarify things: I didn't particularly suspect you when I first criticized some of the things you'd said.
Then you immediately added me to your suspect-list– to punish me. (You gave no other reason, Morm.)
So yes, technically you did claim to suspect me before I suspected you. I don't think that looks any better for you, Morm.
And I don't think my arguments are weak at all. You haven't really tried to answer them.
Still, I'm waiting to hear what Boro has to say.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 06:58 AM
Besides, I said "anyone who disagrees with you". That's all I did!
mormegil
12-29-2007, 07:08 AM
Besides, I said "anyone who disagrees with you". That's all I did!
Then I should be suspecting just about everybody then, eh?:rolleyes:
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 07:23 AM
But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf?
But who was her top suspect? Nerwen, I, someone other?
**
All I remember is the possibility of Nog and me being wolves and a few far-fetched interpretations.
I'm not particularly sure what you mean with these "far-fetched interpretations", but I don't think suspecting that two fellow wolves would have acted as Nog and you on Day 1 is far-fetched. The reason why I think so & noticed it so early: stupid or not, I've been thinking for a while that it would be an interesting thing to try when I'm a wolf next time, and thus I don't believe it's something wolves wouldn't do.
As for Isabell, first I was surprised to see someone who had mentioned me once was considering voting for me. Then I was annoyed, as she seemed to be basing her suspicions on things I had already explained and thought were clear enough.
About half of the village found Valier's reasoning for her vote for me quite weak, as it was, and I'm curious to know how you can think it's a valid point against me. She's known to have hunches, true, but she can be wrong as well. You seem to be grasping at straws now.
Aganzir for Mac - yes, she goes along with her suspicion, but what she ultimately does is to throw her vote away.
I see no sense in voting someone I think is innocent; ie. everybody who had gathered votes yesterday.
**
My case against Mac, as requested.
From his very first post, he suspects Nogrod. Nothing wrong with that, but the way he does it... It looks as if it had been decided beforehand. Mac looks like he's trying so hard to find something in Nog's posts to base suspicion on.
They also seemed to be too sure of each other's wolvishness. And they both are a bit too... straightforward, rude?
My guess why the plot went bad: as the whole thing had been decided in advance, Mac wasn't careful enough to make his points against Nog better from the very beginning; he knows he's a valuable player for whichever team he's in and didn't believe fellow-Nog would try to get him lynched this early even though Nog sometimes does that with his fellows. He didn't expect Noggie would be accusing him seriously...
Generally it makes me wonder why such a bright player like Mac had nothing to say at that point of the game but to bring forwards all this "out of thin air nothing" about my posts. I mean yes I might be mistaken as when some people just jump on you with this kind of nonsense you tend to feel they are wolves trying to get you. But at this point it's my best explanation to Mac's behaviour.
Firstly, Nogrod. Mainly, it is his reaction to Mac’s original points against him. They seemed quite mildly expressed to me. Yet Nogrod’s reaction against them (especially in #113) look to br wholly over the top.
No wonder if they had decided to suspect each other.
I'm not going to repeat here what I said in my post #229 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=540928&postcount=229).
Last but not least, the Mac-Saucie argument. Mac seems to be deliberately misinterpreting what Saucie has said, and I don't like that. Besides, he seems to be very quick to suspect those who have suspected him, except for Rikae (hoping he could still convince her of his innocence?).
I can't think Mac is anything but a wolf. He's usually too good to leave any obvious tracks, but I believe his and Nog's dispute is such, and it shouldn't be overlooked just because it hasn't happened earlier.
edit: xed since #298
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 07:34 AM
Ummm, okay. I agree with you that you are way off track and got carried away but I'd like to know why you suddenly changed your mind as this 180 degree turn is sudden and unexpected I think it would be wise to answer why you think that now after such a vehement attack against me.~morm
It was something Eomer said in his last post, that was completely new information to me because I'm a sloppy reader. I can't believe I was so dense I didn't get the hint earlier. We both know if you're in a mindset of "so and so is guilty" it's extremely easy to find whatever that person says and reach the conclusion of "guilt," until someone else comes along and knocks some sense into it all. I went in to today assuming you were a wolf and so everything you said naturally stood out as wolvish...I was wrong.
Now onto Nerwen...I have a little card here with an asterisk next to post 155 and 158, I can't believe I almost forgot about this:
And she voted me in her very next post, saying it was because of my post about the "Cursed Seer" early in the game, and because she didn't like my explanation. Now, I think those are extremely flimsy reasons to vote someone on. It looks to me more like a reaction to what I'd just said.
This seemed strange her reason for accusing Kath is that Kath has "flimsy" reasons for suspecting her. It's Day 1 what do you want to see? Kath's observation of Nerwen's reaction was a valid one to make. I didn't agree with Kath at the time, but Kath's reasons for accusing and ultimately voting for Nerwen , were as good as anyone else's.
And post 158 is a defense for Nogrod:
That's all very well, Mac, but I read your first post on Nogrod, and it looks very thin indeed to me. But then his reaction does seem a bit paranoid... However, I don't see enough evidence to warrant voting him (or you, on the other hand).
At this point in time I would say Nogrod's lynching was still very unlikely. He had two votes, and the last minutes bandwagon against him caught me completely off guard. I had no clue Nogrod was going to be the Day 1 lynch...until well...he was lynched. Perhaps Nerwen then felt it safe to slip in a defense of her buddy?
This in 224 from Nerwen looks also strange:
I have thought myself that the attack on Rikae probably means something, but I don't think there's any point worrying about it yet.
If you have something to add, why not come out with it? You generalize it as "meaning something" but then cast it aside by saying there's no point in worrying about it? Shouldn't there have been if you thought it actually "meant something?"
So I guess you've had an attack of total amnesia about your own behaviour yesterDay, Morm?
Actually, morm was saying you have been suspecting people for suspecting you...and you imply here morm did the same on Day 1. I don't think so, he suspected me not because I suspected him, but because I would be a bold wolf capable of doing some crazy unlikely things. And on Day 1, I was really the only one who found him off. Where you, Nerwen, have definitely been going after anyone who has suspected you.
Nerwen's vote for Valier, starts the bandwagon against her...anyone notice the votes against Valier began after she had already voted and was likely to not return? I don't trust everyone who voted for Val yesterday...it looks like if a wolf needed saving Val would be an easy "lets get her" target for the wolves. Someone who was quiet, had suspicion building against her, and was not likely to be around for the rest of the day.
Edit: crossed with Agan
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-29-2007, 07:36 AM
Okay, going through SpM's posts was not as hard as I feared, but at least I could better concentrate on re-thinking everything and checking my thoughts. Here we go.
DAY1
#119 Says cautious people on Day 1 are suspicious, and says this is me and Nerwen. While he says cautious is my normal behavior, he is uneasy about Nerwen "she seems portraying herself as helpful". Agrees with most people that Shasta is jumpy.
#129
Again voices suspicion about Nerwen. Says it's maybe not that hot with Shasta but with the case that's building against him (that was when no one voted him yet by that time). Turns towards Nog while agreeing with Mac. Otherwise, suspects also morm for is "badly founded" cases. Also repeats suspicion of my opening talk about pre-game things. Boro, Eomer, Mac, Kath look normal to him, about Isa, Val, Agan, Miggy, Zali needs to form impression.
Votes Nog.
Okay, I must say now this seems even more sinister to me than it did originally. I can now imagine very well that SpM is a wolf, and that his vote for Nog was intentional wolf-on-wolf vote.
DAY2
#195 Wonders why Shasta died (as many did). Posts the voting record. Is puzzled why Nog did not do more to save himself and why he voted Rikae.
Only if he was a wolf, there could be some sinister way to distance himself from Nog behind this - and also to distance himself from the Night kill. But once again, I would be rather careful, as I know how it ends if I analyse someone with too much assumptions. But again, I encourage you to form your opinions on this.
#197 Ponders Mac-Nog brotherhood theory, saying it could explain why Nog did not save himself, yet says it's problematic as Mac could have saved him. Says other possibility is Nog decided to sacrifice himself and so make other wolves who voted him look innocent, and says in that case me or Agan could be wolves. Says Eomer and Boro's votes point to that one of them could be a wolf.
This post looks like very much pondering, yet full of unvoiced questions. The trouble is, SpM does not often say things plainly, like: "XY is a wolf", but rather "(long talk)...and this could point towards XY...(long talk)", which is of course a good way to implant some opinion on others.
#233 Again wonders about Shasta's death, saying Nerwen would not probably have killed Shasta. Ponders Mac, says he backed off his Aganzir theory a little possibly because the same could apply to him. Again says that me or Agan could be wolves. I would like to quote this, actually:
The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.
In fact, this does not look good to me. I don't see how Agan's vote is better than mine. But - see below for conclusion.
In the rest of the post, he says he thinks Boro and Eomer innocent as they confessed they were trying to save Nog.
Then he says Valier is beginning to concern him. This is what I mentioned in my last post. I don't like this one bit, as I said earlier, also followed by the vote later.
#240 Says he's toying with voting one of Nog-voters. Posts list of players. Switchy-defends Aganzir (the same as above, and I really DON'T LIKE that). Otherwise, about most of the people he does not say anything much. Worried about Kath for her Nerwen-case, myself for voting Nogrod (NOTE: SpM, you ask me there why I switched for Nog - I believe you can get the answer if you read the post where I vote), also mentions Valier for her involvement in Nerwen-Kath issue.
#241 Says Kath did quite a wolvish thing saying Nerwen overreacted with the Seer-Cursed thing, posts his main suspects (Mac, Val, Kath, me, Aganzir) who he says are very close in his suspicions.
#243 Looks at TM. Asks about his reasonings, says his Eomer vote is throwaway one. Wants more explanation from Valier, votes Valier.
DAY 3
#272 Posts voting list. Briefly mentions we can't be 100% certain whether there was Ranger involved indeed. (Note down: This, if we find out a Cursed wolf happened, could point towards his innocence.)
#273 Says why he put up Mac as his suspect and says he voted Val because there seemed not to be chance to vote Mac. Stops at Nerwen's last minute scream. Okay, this is also one thing that makes me worried.
#278 Asks Boro to explain his suspicions on morm or Isa, repeats why he voted Val and not Mac (though I think he is not actually responding to what he was asked).
#281 Says my vote for Val could have been wolvish to start a bandwaggon. TM's vote was a throwaway one. He's right about this, but that says nothing even about their relationship with TM (as this is quite an obvious thing). Whatever, this is the last from him this far.
So, overall: My feelings have not gone better about SpM after rereading his posts, sometimes they made me even more uneasy. There are some people (like Aganzir probably the most), in whose case, if we learn they are wolves, we could quite well consider it another evidence of SpM being a wolf as well. Of course, then it's possible SpM, even if he is a wolf, simply found himself a "good horse" of the innocents and supports him, so I am not necessarily throwing them away both if one is a wolf. Whatever. Another thing is that I don't like the way he constantly brings back the suspicion on me, first of my opening talk about pre-game things and later. I know I may be touched by this more than other people would, as it concerns my person, but I believe the pre-game thing was solved and SpM was the only one who brought it up again. Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed. As I said, better if you judge for yourselves. But all in all, I have bad feelings about SpM. I will see now whether my powers are enough to make an analysis of someone else yet, but whatever the case, will be back later. Till then, goodbye.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 07:46 AM
Aganzir, as I've stated before, I've had doubts about Mac since Day One. The Mac-Nogrod business struck a number of people as contrived, and I find his counter-attacks on people who suspect him pretty weak.
...On the other, what if he did indeed make a lucky guess about Nogrod– and we lynch him for his pains?
I'm still waiting to hear why Boromir88 has suddenly decided Mormegil is innocent.
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 07:55 AM
...On the other, what if he did indeed make a lucky guess about Nogrod– and we lynch him for his pains?
I know it is possible, but his behaviour makes me think otherwise. And if they had this plot with Noggie, it was definitely a part of it to make us think Mac was just skilled and really caught a wolf.
And agh, I know I shouldn't be concentrating only on him. I'm leaving soon but when I'm back I guess I'm going to do some reading and try to come up with something about others, too.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 08:02 AM
Actually, morm was saying you have been suspecting people for suspecting you...and you imply here morm did the same on Day 1. I don't think so, he suspected me not because I suspected him, but because I would be a bold wolf capable of doing some crazy unlikely things.
Please read my post where I stated my arguments against Morm.
Look, I did not suspect Valier because she suspected me, but because she kept on accusing people without giving proper reasons. I thought she was a wolf, hiding behind "oh, I just have a feeling about so-and-so", rather than giving arguments that could be attacked. I was wrong.
As for Kath, I thought she looked wolfish because of the way she voted me immediately after I threw out a mild suspicion against her. I have explained this already.
Please remember that I've had a lot of people going after me from the start of the game, attacking me for often weird reasons, then attacking me for defending myself. Does it really surprise you that I think some may be wolves?
It was something Eomer said in his last post, that was completely new information to me because I'm a sloppy reader. I can't believe I was so dense I didn't get the hint earlier. We both know if you're in a mindset of "so and so is guilty" it's extremely easy to find whatever that person says and reach the conclusion of "guilt," until someone else comes along and knocks some sense into it all. I went in to today assuming you were a wolf and so everything you said naturally stood out as wolvish...I was wrong.
Can you explain this a bit more clearly, Boro? I swear I'll take my vote back if you can convince me Morm is innocent.
mormegil
12-29-2007, 08:08 AM
(I just got home and haven't read much since my last post...I work a graveyard shift Friday nights and I'm extremely tired so reading is pointless at this moment...hopefully I'm lucid now as I type...anyway I'm going to bed and will hopefully be back in time but if not)
++Nerwen
I really feel she is a wolf and feel I have made some fairly valid points against her. I don't have time or the sense right now to rehash those points.
I think it wise if somebody else have an objective look at The Might. I find him 'mighty' :rolleyes::D suspicious now and think an extra set of eyes would be helpful.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 08:25 AM
Boro, I've read Eomer's last post, and I don't get it. Maybe I'm dead from the neck up, as the man said, but I can't even see what it has to do with Mormegil at all.
Please. I really don't want to lynch him if he's innocent.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-29-2007, 08:34 AM
I'm not sure what Boromir's up to but it will be considered dangerous by his enemies, whoever they are. For now, I'm thinking he's probably innocent. I fear that he has limited time to explain himself so I urge him to do it soon as he can. I can't see what Mormegil has to do with anything I said about the Hunter or the Cursed or whoever.
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 08:48 AM
Can you explain this a bit more clearly, Boro? I swear I'll take my vote back if you can convince me Morm is innocent.~Nerwen
The truth lies with the cradle crafter and the tree trimmer...can you tell I've recently watched National Treasure?
Ok, so onto Aganzir and the Might. I'm kind of mixed on Agan. On one hand I'm trusting the judgement of someone's who's judgement I trust more than my own, at the moment. Yet, I think he's said some very valuable, helpful, information thoughout the time here. Also, I'm not sold yet that there was a wolf in the Nogrod voters...if there was I would guess it would be Legate. As witness Nogrod's wolfish behaviors before, I can imagine sacrificing himself and telling buddy Legate to vote for him...casting a "crucial vote" against him. It was Agan who cast the go ahead vote, but there was a cross post and Legate says he was in the mindset that he was casting the deciding vote to put Nogrod into the lead.
What particularly makes me feel that Agan is innocent is just some helpful comments like this:
Has no one really considered the possibility that Boro was merely trying us with his vote? At least to me it seems quite possible.
At the time when several people were coming along saying my sudden vote for Kath was suspicious, he says that. I would have expected a wolf-Agan to jump right along and continue with it. Agan and I have been in several villages, and as he has seen, when there are retractable votes, I like to have fun with using them. I figure, they are there for us, might as well put them to good use and try to get some info out of 'em.
And what she said about Kath on Day 1:
Now this may be grasping at straws, but that "I'm not defending Mac" caught my eye. It just looks like she's trying to make sure that everybody realise she's not on the same side with Mac if one of them is lynched and revealed to be a wolf.
And Day 2 with regard to Mac:
Originally Posted by Mac on Nog
Seriously, read everything he posts for today very critical. If you think he's innocent, listen to him, if not, then don't let him twist your mind and please don't hesitate to vote for him.
This is not something an innocent says. If Mac thinks Noggie is a wolf, why on earth does he tell others to listen to him? He's saying "Even though I think Noggie is a wolf, I hope you others won't do that. Don't pay too much attention to my opinions, I can be wrong as well."
I can't put my finger on it any better, but it was something I didn't like even when I read it on Day 1. With Nogwolf dead, it makes me feel only worse about Mac.
I think Agan has reached the wrong conclusion about Mac, but I found that comment by Mac awkward as well, and it was a good spot on Agan's part. I take it as Mac made a statement that was just something he shouldn't have said...nevertheless it was still the statement of an innocent. It's just as hard to survive as an ordinary as it is a wolf. Everyone has to watch what they say, if an innocent for whatever reason, doesn't want to end up dead, he/she has to edit themselves...just as a wolf would.
So, on one hand, Agan looks like an innocent who has reached the wrong conclusion on another innocent. Yet, has been a helpful, willing to contribute person...who after all did cast a crucial vote against a known wolf. On the other hand, I can't shake the feeling that one of the deciding votes cast for Nogrod (either Agan or Legate) is that of a wolf, because of knowing how wolf-Nogrod likes to sacrifice his partners (or himself) to make another look good.
See, I told you Kath, this is what happens when I think too much. It was so much easier for me to be a stubborn pig headed lunatic...at least that way I could reach a decision. But I'm gaining more and more distrust with Nerwen.
edit: crossed with Nerwen and Eomer...and I'll get to the Might when I have more time...I have to go now.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 09:15 AM
The truth lies with the cradle crafter and the tree trimmer...can you tell I've recently watched National Treasure?
Well, I've never watched it myself, so the answer's no.
I still don't get it what it is with Eomer's post... but there's something Morm said in his reply that makes me wonder. Only it doesn't prove anything.
Still–
--Mormegil.
I think I may have seriously misjudged him.
Damn. Now I have no idea who to vote for.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-29-2007, 09:43 AM
So, on one hand, Agan looks like an innocent who has reached the wrong conclusion on another innocent. Yet, has been a helpful, willing to contribute person...who after all did cast a crucial vote against a known wolf. On the other hand, I can't shake the feeling that one of the deciding votes cast for Nogrod (either Agan or Legate) is that of a wolf, because of knowing how wolf-Nogrod likes to sacrifice his partners (or himself) to make another look good.
I would say if there was a wolf among the Nog voters, then it was Agan. All we saw points towards that and, that is not to be forgotten, Agan is a very, very clever wolf and the more innocent she looks, the more I am wary of her.
Anyway, I wanted to point out one thing, or rather remind us of it - even though I am currently inclined to believe there was indeed some sort of a plan, there is still the possibility that Nog's death was not planned and the wolves simply failed to save him. Because the Wolves can PM each other, but they can't do that in no time. They have to open PM box, write, send, the other has to be there and refresh the page to notice he has new PM, open it, read it, and then act or even reply once again. This way it could be even possible that both Boro and Eomer are wolves, for example - and they did not have to coordinate how to save Nogrod. In other words, as we are going, let's not forget even the possibility that the death was really an unpredicted loss from the wolves' part.
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 09:45 AM
Ok, so now I have some time for TM...
Posts 86, 116, and 117 The Mighthas defended Nerwen. So, despite what Nerwen argues, The Might consistantly defended Nerwen on Day 1.
As far as I've seen Nerwen hasn't been so defending of The Might, but has made defenses for him. So, the question is would two wolves be this close and want to defend eachother so...well...closely?
Also, Nerwen's recent recanting of her vote for morm I think speaks to her favor, its going to put my stomach in a horrid knot if she dies and she's innocent. So, perhaps both are not wolves, but I would suggest if we ever reach a conclusion on Nerwen, to take a close look at The Might. Nerwen was a prime candidate on Day 1, so it's quite reasonable to say the wolves thought she would end up lynched. And a wolf-TM could come in and play the "I told you so card...didn't I tell you she was innocent?"
He didn't vote on Day 1, but I think his explanation is genuine. I also got confused with the voting hours. Although I believe it to be TM explaining what truthfully happened...that doesn't mean that wolves aren't honest. One of the most successfuly wolf tirades was pulled off by the phantom who did not tell a single lie the entire duration.
On Day 2, there's not much, he goes with the Valier accusations but casts a throw away vote for Eomer. Up to this point, TM has been playing cautiously. He defends a prime candidate on Day 1, doesn't name any real suspects and doesn't vote, on Day 2 he rouses suspicion against Val but votes Eomer instead. Were you nervous in having the blood of an innocent on you?
And his lone post today...#283, seems like Valier noticed about his first post on Day 2...just awkward:
SPM, you must of course also acknowledge that my vote for Eomer came at a very early point as I was unsure that I would be able to go online till the deadline, which as seen I was not.
I don't like the "you must of course also acknowledge" bit.
So...
++The Might
I trust two M's but not the M. I'm wary about Nerwen, wary that she's a wolf but has appealed to me, duped me, fooled me into thinking she's innocent. Or that she's truthfully an innocent and we're about to make a mistake. Nevertheless, if it becomes necessary, I will retract my vote for TM and vote for Nerwen.
The Might
12-29-2007, 10:22 AM
Yes, I know I said that I would have more time on my hands, turns out I might have been rather wrong about that, at least as far today is concerned. Woke up just an hour ago and I have to be somewhere else in 45 minutes so I'll try to take a look at everything as quick as I can.
I still fell that Nerwen is innocent, it's simply the way she has posted so far that rather makes me think she is being targeted on purpose by the wolves.
Also, I dislike the way that my posts have been understood as a wolf helping another, but I actually thought that might happen.
Also, I'd like you to explain the last part of your post Boro.
What is it that you don't you like about that part?
The fact that SPM didn't mention when my vote was made?
For now my suspects are morm and Eomer.
As such I shall stick with my earlier suspicion and vote
++ Eomer
I'm off.
Rikae
12-29-2007, 11:15 AM
I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.
I have to wonder about Farael at this point. All along I've been writing him off as the normal Farael, aggressive, controversial, etc. - but actually, he is bending over backwards to be uncontroversial. His posts invariably come on the heels of, and echo, another player's suspicions - sometimes echoing the choice of words as well. He did this with my wording that Shasta was "edgy"; he followed Nerwen's suspicions of Valier, and now he is doing the same thing with SPaM and Mac. Sure, he goes after suspects aggressively, as he usually does, but this time the suspects aren't his own. Maybe it's just Lommy's absence... ;) Still, I don't like it at all.
It appears that Nerwen and The Might are going to be today's candidates, but I don't find either of the two particularly suspicious. I would prefer to give my vote to Farael, if it wouldn't mean that it would be completely wasted.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-29-2007, 11:31 AM
Farael concerns me too, Rikae. I've noticed that he's been too friendly for comfort, even with his 'conspiracy theorist' role. Unlike you, though, I would not be unhappy with voting for either Nerwen or The Might.
My opinion on Nerwen is still befuddled: on the one hand the killing of Shasta by her would have been unusually bold, but on the other she's been a bit too confrontational and dominant in the village debate.
The Might seems awfully creepy to me (but maybe I'm consciously making this so because of his votes for me). He doesn't show up much, doesn't say much, and votes for someone who hasn't received a single other vote -- probably to give himself an aura of originality.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-29-2007, 12:52 PM
Looks like things are flowing slowly, yet are flowing. Let me add my two cents to the debate.
Concerning Farael, he does not seem suspicious to me. I wouldn't say he is "too friendly" - I played with him only a few times so I don't know his style as well as some others here, yet he does not raise any alarms and in fact seems quite genuine and helpful, or at least trying to be helpful. So I'm not bothered with him this far.
My problem with Miggy is rather that he acts differently than in the games before: he acts more on his own behalf, does not "go with the flow" but stands against it. Which is also what concerns his vote yesterDay. And now I see he holds his case even toDay. A stubborn Miggy could very well hide his wolfishness behind his stubborness. Hm. I don't have any particular view on Eomer, in fact, I did not focus on him much till this time, however (and because) there was nothing particularly alarming about him, at least to me. So I cannot judge TM on this basis, maybe he just spotted something I didn't. Also, maybe it is indeed only that Miggy has more time on his hands, as he says, and so he has the chance to form his own opinions.
Also, I dislike the way that my posts have been understood as a wolf helping another, but I actually thought that might happen.
Now what to make of this? Is this "oh my, I knew things are going to get wrong, but you know, I just did that"? Honest? Or is it a dodge from the wolvish Might?
Well, I cannot say I would be strongly convinced of TM's guilt, yet, I consider him as one of the possible suspects and if there are no better candidates toDay, I may vote him. But it's still a long time till DL and I will wait and use the time to sort my thoughts on everything.
The Saucepan Man
12-29-2007, 01:36 PM
A bit of a long one, I am afraid, but there’s quite a bit to catch up on.
That was all I had yesterday. Yes, it's not much, I know.And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.
So please don't try to twist things as you want them to sound like.What is it toDay with people accusing me of twisting the facts?! All I said was that, of all the votes yesterDay, yours looks the most like a ‘throwaway’ vote. Which it does.
As far as Mac, I figure he spotted a wolf on Day 1, might as well trust him, until he is horribly wrong.I disagree. If he’s a Wolf, he’s a dangerous one. Better to lynch him now than later. And your comparison with Nog eventually being spotted in a previous village by virtue of him not having been killed doesn’t work here, to my mind. Most villagers here are strong players, so I should imagine that a few will remain for him to hide amongst.
Now, The Might has not "constantly defended" me, or anything like it.Actually, reading morm’s analysis, which accords with my recollection (and Boro‘s subsequent analysis), he has pretty much, at least on Day 1.
Legate, I am not going to respond to your analysis of me in detail. It was pretty accurate actually, save for the asides. But we all know that one can approach an analysis of someone with a certain feeling and find that it justifies that feeling (or, indeed, that one can craft an analysis with Wolfish intent). It is interesting, though, that you decided to analyse in detail one of the few people (the only person?) who seriously suspects you. One point that I will respond to, though:
Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed.For goodness, sake, this is much the same (bad) point as the one that Mac raised earlier. I explained why I voted for Valier yesterDay but, as I have said above, I do still believe that there was at least one Wolf among the Nog voters.
Finally (for now), I am becoming a tad concerned about Boro. He’s been acting awfully strange toDay. There may well be a good (as in virtuous) explanation for it, but it looks plain weird to me. I don’t understand his reasoning for ‘clearing’ morm at all. But the question for me is should we trust him?
The Saucepan Man
12-29-2007, 02:00 PM
OK, so here’s where I am at the moment.
Mac remains my strongest suspect. I think it quite credible that he started out on Day 1 Wolfishly trying to distance himself from Nog but that, when the votes started to come in, they switched to ‘plan B’ - the lynching of Noggie to make Mac look good. It seems that Mac’s ‘spotting’ of Noggie remains the reason why some are not prepared to vote for him so, if I am right, the plan has worked to a degree. His overly-aggressive responses to me earlier toDay have only served to reinforce my suspicion of him.
Legate has promoted himself to second on my suspect list. His Noggie vote looks ‘forced’ to me and could well have been planned between them. His decision to analyse me toDay, the one (I think) person who has expressed serious suspicion of him, looks to me like a possible attempt to make be back off, but it has had quite the opposite effect on me.
I am still vaguely uneasy about Aganzir. She could be a Wolf with Legate, but I highly doubt that she’s one with Mac. Of the Nog-voters, though, hers looks the least Wolfish to me (other than my own, of course).
I haven’t forgotten Kath, though she has said far too little toDay for me to have any more idea about her than I did yesterDay.
I was beginning to have doubts about The Might, mainly for his case against Shasta on Day 1 and his vote for Eomer yesterDay. And he has seemed slightly jumpy toDay, what with accusing me of twisting things when I was merely pointing out that his Eomer vote could be characterised as a ‘throwaway’ vote. But I wonder whether, having been criticised for it, a WolfMight would vote Eomer again. And I am wary of the suspicion that suddenly seems to be building up around him. The ‘defence of Nerwen’ thing seems to be intriguing, though.
Which brings me to Nerwen. I think people are right to label her as nervous and jumpy. But I can understand her explanation, given that she has attracted so much suspicion so far. I thought her cautious in the early stages of Day 1, which was my reason for considering her then. But, otherwise, I can see little Wolfish about her. That said, her death, whether she is guilty or innocent, may well help explain a few things. It would not necessarily be a bad thing for her to be lynched toDay, but it will not be by my hand, as I think her more likely innocent than guilty.
Which brings me to my vote. Again, I may well be able to make it back later, but I cannot be certain. So I will take up Mac on that dare and put my money where my mouth is.
++Mac
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 02:08 PM
I thought I would make it back earlier, but now I'm here.
It seems like we're going towards lynching either Nerwen or the Might. I still think Nerwen to be innocent. The killing of Shasta is in favour of it, her genuine confusion (sorry, but that's how much of it seems to me), but most of all it's simply a feeling I get when I read her posts.
The Might, I have to admit, has rather escaped my attention so far. I should have a close look at him now.
And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.If Legate's vote was a wolf-on-wolf vote, it was a rather clumsy one, I think. Too clumsy for Nogrod and Legate - they would have done it better or not at all. I think Legate is innocent because he hasn't said anything that was really suspicious to me, unlike Aganzir.
(edit: crossed with Saucepan)
Farael
12-29-2007, 02:32 PM
I am concerned at how Mac has cowed everyone to back off of him, and yet the concerns that were raised against him have not been resolved.
He just "threatened" everyone with "prove it or shut it" and well.. .it's hard to prove anything, all we have is circumstantial evidence. That's EXACTLY why a wolf would benefit so much from attacking another wolf in Day 1, even if one of the two was to be lynched.
Therefore, I'll take a chance and vote for Mac.... yes, yes I know, I'm flip-flopping and it'll cost me... Tomorrow (game-wise) I'll be accused of just about anything for a flip-flop.
But I am too willing to put my vote where my mouth is
++Macalaure
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 02:34 PM
Boro - The person of whose innocence I've been quite sure for the whole game.
I'm slightly concerned, though, about the way he's saying we shouldn't concentrate on this far-fetched theory of both Nog and Mac being wolves. If Mac's revealed to be a wolf, I think it might point at Boro also.
Eomer - Another I have been considering innocent. One of the main reasons he has stated himself: "If a wolf is leading the votes 5-3 (I believe those were the numbers) with two minutes to go before deadline, why would a fellow wolf appear and mount a comically late attempt to save him?"
He's being reasonable and has good points.
Farael - I really can't say about him. I've been more or less trusting him thus far, but I don't know. I think his way of suspecting people is different from the last game (the only I've played with him), but he said himself his playing style may vary from game to game, so I don't think that's a reason to be concerned.
I'm more inclined to think he's innocent.
Isabell - I admit I've only played once with her a long time ago, and we were fellow wolves then, so I don't really know about her general playing style. At least she's different from the Izzie I plotted with, but then again it was her first game here.
She's been mostly reasonable, but I still don't completely understand where she got her suspicions about me as I had already explained my reasons. However, I doubt a wolf would suspect an innocent about something that should be quite clear.
Kath - Considering her own behaviour, she looks rather innocent. But the way she kept accusing Nerwen looks weird to me. Of those twain, I think Nerwen is more probably innocent.
Legate - He doesn't sit right with me. He's not being himself, and I will be very surprised if he turns out to be innocent. I copy what I said in #248: "He just seems to be a complete, deliberate opposite to the normal Legate."
The more I suspect him, the more he seems to be suspecting me.
And I know I'm sometimes a clever wolf, you can stop repeating it now. But I also hope I'm a better tactician than what you are saying.
Mac - My opinion (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=541138&postcount=306) hasn't changed.
morm - It's hard to read him. I'm quite sure, though, that both Mac and him aren't wolves as he brought forward the Nog-Mac debate in his first post on Day 2. At the moment I'm not too worried about him.
Nerwen - I think she's no different from usual. If I remember correctly she has always gathered a lot of suspicion without ever being a wolf. While I think it's improbable that a Nerwolf had killed Shasta, I do believe, though, that she would have been capable and daring enough to do that.
I agree with her about several things & am quite inclined to consider her innocent.
Rikae - Pretty much the normal Rikae. I'm inclined to think she's innocent.
Might - I agree with (otherwise distrusted) Legate that Might has been more independent than in the previous games. But I think that doesn't necessarily point at wolvishness but the experience he has gained, and I also buy his own explanation. Other than that, there's very little I can say about him, except that I don't particularly like his Eomer votes. He's another player who is suspected every single time.
Saucie - Sensible. His argument with Mac makes me feel better about him.
**
Innocent:
Eomer
morm
Nerwen
Rikae
Possibly innocent:
Boro
Farael
Isabell
Saucie
Possibly guilty:
Kath
Might
Guilty:
Mac
Legate
**
One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing.
I'm afraid I didn't quite grasp what you mean here.
edit: xed with two Saucies, Mac and Farael
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 02:38 PM
The Might is consistent about finding Nerwen innocent. It seems like, if Nerwen is a wolf, then he is, too. However, I don't find this consistency suspicious in itself, since I come to the same conclusion about Nerwen.
Then he misses his vote, which isn't good, but doesn't tell anything about his role. If we are to buy his explanation for it, it makes him more likely innocent, because it's less probable that he got confused over the deadlines with three people pming him over the day.
His vote for Eomer itself is not so suspicious. It came relatively early, so it's not as much of a throwaway as Aganzir's. However, the reasoning behind it is bad, I think, or at least he doesn't explain it properly. The way he does explain it, it comes purely from the way Eomer attacked Nerwen. I see why he wants to defend her, but he's taking it too far. He's also focussing too much on things surrounding Nerwen, which is strange - and not helpful at all.
Today, with him and Nerwen being in the spotlight a lot, he still refrains from reconsidering her innocence. If he was a wolf and she not, then he probably wouldn't have done that, since her lynching would be a good way to save himself.
The Might could be a wolf, but I don't really think so. However, if he is, then Nerwen is, too, in all probability. But I have very little faith that they are.
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 02:48 PM
Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote? A vote that doesn't contribute to lynching someone instead of someone other? I can hardly see my vote as a throw-away, as I voted for the person I suspected most instead of someone I didn't suspect at all.
And it's hard to believe you have forgotten this quickly how A Little Green incriminated morm in the last game by constantly defending him... And she was a first-timer, Might and Nerwen aren't.
Well, at least this vote isn't a throw-away, even on your criteria.
++ Macalaure
Dog for a walk now, be back soon.
Isabellkya
12-29-2007, 02:52 PM
++ Nerwen
Her comment after deadline yesterDay, was obviously in regards to self preservation.. yet did it really need to be said in that manner?
Her being against Morm is a bit flimsy in my opinion. We are in a village and we need to find the wolves. If we don't verbally attack each other and cast suspicions and accusations around; then who will do it for us? How will we find the wolves; eenie meenie mynie moe?
She comments on him attacking others for disagreeing with him; yet when it comes to commenting on those who've voiced suspicion against her, she finds it odd and weird. Which I don't see how, I think those who've voiced suspicion have made their reasons clear.
Post #295:
In conclusion– I don't know if Morm's a wolf or just a serious hypocrite. I think he's a wolf.
Post #299 - She votes for morm.
Post #300 - Boro states he was off track with morm and that he is not a wolf.
Post #303 & 309 - Waits to hear what Boro says.
Post #316 - retracts vote on Morm.
I haven't much liked this whole 'convince me to vote how you want attitude'.. it reeks of innocent.. yet this is why I don't like it. Innocents aren't typically this obvious and blunt about how they can be manipulated by the wolves. In the span of one post, she had almost recanted her vote; it was only 16 more posts before she did.
I believe it has been said that a Nerwolf would not be so bold as to kill Shasta; yet do not forget that there were three wolves alive when Shasta died during NightOne.
I think I've said enough about Nerwen..
X'd with Mac and Aganzir.
Farael
12-29-2007, 02:57 PM
Votes thus far
Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae
12-29-2007, 03:00 PM
Aganzir, if you don't know what I mean there, there's no use explaining - it's about as clear as it could possibly be. Well, here goes: you responded to Mac's suspicions by claiming that he was trying to stop you from suspecting him, but you really presented no danger to him at that point, as far as I could see. It looks to me like a sneaky way of trying to make someone look defensive when he isn't.
I don't find TM wolfish in the least - it's obvious to me he is simply confused, and lynching someone for coming up with his own opinions is downright ridiculous. If he is coming into his own as a player, good for him, I say.
I also don't particularly want to lynch Nerwen, as the suspicions of her seem based, more than anything, on her Nerwen-ishness. She has always been rather edgy and aggressive, as I recall; however, I will consider switching my vote to her if necessary.
I'm concerned that lynching Macalaure may be a very serious mistake. Remember, Nogrod is a very prominent player and a likely target for closer observation earlier in the game.
I strongly suggest we listen to Macalaure before we judge him.
++Aganzir
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 03:10 PM
About half of the village found Valier's reasoning for her vote for me quite weak, as it was, and I'm curious to know how you can think it's a valid point against me. She's known to have hunches, true, but she can be wrong as well. You seem to be grasping at straws now.Of course it was weak - it was nothing but a hunch. And it was one from somebody whose role nobody knew. If I had nothing to show but her hunch, I wouldn't suspect you. It's just one more thing and worth adding.
Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote?A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.
So, are you telling me now that you found all - Valier, morm, and Nerwen - equally and perfectly innocent? There was none among them of whom you were more sure of than the other, that you would rather have kept alive than the other? I don't find this believable. Not at all. Your vote could have achieved something, but you preferred to throw it away instead. And that is telling.
From his very first post, he suspects Nogrod. Nothing wrong with that, but the way he does it... It looks as if it had been decided beforehand. Mac looks like he's trying so hard to find something in Nog's posts to base suspicion on.
You seem to forget that Nogrod was a wolf. I was not trying hard to find something wolfish, I was only pointing out what was there. You're making it sound as if I made my points up!
And your "a plot that went bad"-theory is far-fetched.
And you accuse me of grasping at straws... :rolleyes:
Farael
12-29-2007, 03:13 PM
A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.
Actually, that's an awful slip by you Macawolf... a throwaway vote is voting for someone solely 'cos that "someone" looks like is going to be lynched. Voting for your top suspect is never a throwaway vote, as it leaves evidence for the village
Would you have us all blindly follow the lead of a few early voters to define who gets killed every day? please even you know better.
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 03:17 PM
I feared I would again get no support for lynching Aganzir. I'm happy that it seems not to be this way.
++Aganzir
Farael
12-29-2007, 03:18 PM
Following up on my last post,
Voting for the top suspects just because they are top suspects IS a throwaway vote... it shows that you don't care who dies, as long as you make sure your vote is hiddein in a bandwagon.
Farael
12-29-2007, 03:19 PM
Another votes update
Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1, Aganzir 1)
Macalaure Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Well ... I am back (just), and I find myself inclined to leave my vote as it is. I know that I will be preoccupied with Nerwen this entire game and here's a chance to know for sure. I hate that that's my strongest reason for leaving my vote as it is, but it's a strong one to me. I dislike getting bogged down on one person. At any rate, I did and do have some suspicion of her. I still don't understand why Boro and I were put together as wolvish chums, nor do I understand why my voting for her after that comment made me suspicious to her. In fact most of her attacks on me seemed to be solely as a result of my suspicion of her, and given that I know Nerwen is a smart player that seems an odd thing to do.
Anyway, I am rambling. I'll keep an eye on what's going on, but I think I'm going to leave this as is.
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 03:23 PM
Rikae, to me that wasn't clear. It was what I think Mac was doing, whether I presented a real danger or not.
So, are you telling me now that you found all - Valier, morm, and Nerwen - equally and perfectly innocent?
I found them all innocent, and for me that's good enough a reason to vote someone I suspect instead. As improbable as it was, I was also hoping someone would return and switch to you.
You're making it sound as if I made my points up!
I'm not making it sound like that. I'm pointing out things that make me think it is so.
edit: xed with two Faraels and Kath
Rikae
12-29-2007, 03:24 PM
Following up on my last post,
Voting for the top suspects just because they are top suspects IS a throwaway vote... it shows that you don't care who dies, as long as you make sure your vote is hiddein in a bandwagon.
It was always my understanding that either one - voting for someone who has no chance of being lynched, or voting for someone who will certainly be lynched anyway - could be considered a "throwaway vote".
Which is why, incidentally, I didn't vote for you, Farael.
But I hope this balderdash about semantics and oversimplification of voting-analysis means that a vote for you won't be a "throw-away" tomorrow...
EDIT: X'd with Kath and Aganzir
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 03:27 PM
Farael (and Rikae, too), maybe we should debate what constitutes a throwaway vote and what not tomorrow, and not so close to the deadline, shall we?
Farael
12-29-2007, 03:29 PM
Farael (and Rikae, too), maybe we should debate what constitutes a throwaway vote and what not tomorrow, and not so close to the deadline, shall we?
Classy... curiously enough, your weak attack on Aganzir, based on this "throwaway vote" is the reason this debate is happening.
Rikae if you are an ordo you are in for a rude awakening.... if Mac is not a wolf, I'll eat my hat! I know that didn't work last time around but I can't be THAT unlucky :p
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-29-2007, 03:31 PM
as his post make me even more worried about him than before.
It is interesting, though, that you decided to analyse in detail one of the few people (the only person?) who seriously suspects you.
Mr.Sp., that is a very wolfy way of turning things at me. This is not an argument. I chose you simply because I considered you the most suspicious of the people I wanted to analyze - and I ended with a rather unpleasant picture of you. And you are not the only one who raised doubts about me - for example Aganzir also voiced some disconcern.
For goodness, sake, this is much the same (bad) point as the one that Mac raised earlier. I explained why I voted for Valier yesterDay but, as I have said above, I do still believe that there was at least one Wolf among the Nog voters.
This enthusiasm is not helping, SpM. Shouting things like "for goodness sake" is not going to raise your reputation in eyes of others, at least not if they think like I do. This "voice of Saruman" is not only about voting Valier, but about your behaviour overall. I think it is not much wise to split votes more now, yet if anyone was willing, I could advise even voting for you toDay.
EDIT: x-ed with about four hundred people since Rikae's vote.
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 03:40 PM
I found them all innocent, and for me that's good enough a reason to vote someone I suspect instead. As improbable as it was, I was also hoping someone would return and switch to you.I don't think I buy that you found them all perfectly innocent. Getting me lynched at that time yesterday was improbable, but you could maybe have done it if you had urged anybody else to follow your vote, which you didn't. It might seem unlikely, but if you would have, I would feel better about you now.
I'm not making it sound like that. I'm pointing out things that make me think it is so.You're pointing out a possibility, but you make no claims why this possibility is more likely than the opposite. Ergo: you're making things up.
Classy... curiously enough, your weak attack on Aganzir, based on this "throwaway vote" is the reason this debate is happening.I know. But I did that to make a point against Aganzir, not to debate the issue in general. That we should leave for earlier hours.
Farael
12-29-2007, 03:42 PM
I know. But I did that to make a point against Aganzir, not to debate the issue in general. That we should leave for earlier hours.
You amaze me... and I started that argument not for the argument itself but rather as a point against You
Or are you beyond suspicion now?
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-29-2007, 03:42 PM
Okee-dokee. If there is anyone among toDay's lynch candidates whom I find suspicious, it is Aganzir. Neither Nerwen nor Mac seem suspicious to me to that extent.
++Aganzir
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-29-2007, 03:43 PM
I am still trying to understand why all certainty in this village revolves around Macalaure, against him or from him. It bothers me a lot.
Farael
12-29-2007, 03:44 PM
Deadline coming up in 15 minutes
Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1, Aganzir 1)
Macalaure Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Legate: Aganzir (Aganzir 3, Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
As it stands right now, Aganzir is done for...
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 03:51 PM
Someone switch to Mac, please.
If I die today, take a closer look on Rikae and Legate too. I don't think they are players that are convinced that easily.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-29-2007, 03:52 PM
Well, it seems unlikely that I can get Nerwen lynched, because she can counter my move (if, as I presume, she is hovering around). If she likes, she can lynch the Might rather than Aganzir.
++THE MIGHT
It may look odd that I'm leaving the choice to her who I have voted for twice previously, but that's the way this situation has unfolded.
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 03:54 PM
--The Might
Just a preliminary precaution if some vote decides to show up that doesn't sit right with me.
Aganzir
12-29-2007, 03:56 PM
-- Mac
++ Mac
I don't know if this counts, but I'm an innocent and don't want to die.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-29-2007, 03:58 PM
It's not only innocents who don't want to die.
Nerwen
12-29-2007, 03:59 PM
Well, partly because I have had suspicions of Mac, and partly just to save Aganzir, and/or The Might (I’ve lost track of which is in the lead, but anyway I think them both probably innocent)–
++Macalaure
Macalaure
12-29-2007, 03:59 PM
I'm not sure whether this is the way this rule is supposed to work :(, but...
--Aganzir
++Aganzir
(xed with Nerwen, now that is just great...)
Boromir88
12-29-2007, 03:59 PM
++Nerwen
Rikae
12-29-2007, 03:59 PM
-- Aga
++ Nerwen
Farael
12-29-2007, 04:01 PM
--Mac
++Mac
the phantom
12-29-2007, 04:06 PM
Unless I am mistaken, Nerwen wins (or loses) with 5 votes.
The death will be up soon.
the phantom
12-29-2007, 04:41 PM
The fear and suspicion in the village reached a fever pitch, accusations flew, and many thrashed mightily beneath the weight of votes.
Several villagers put their entire weight behind their beliefs, exploiting every voting loophole they could see in order to obtain the desired outcome.
In the end, it was Nerwen, the miller, who came up on the wrong end of the townsfolk.
A relieved Aganzir led Nerwen to the gallows, thankful that she would not herself be hung- yet, anyway. Mac, who had barely escaped himself, stepped up to help bind Nerwen. "Never again will you hunt us by night, foul beast," he whispered to her.
"Then I suppose if I'm going to kill someone, I should do it now!" she whispered back fiercely. Just as Aganzir tried to loop the rope around her neck, Nerwen lowered her head and bulled into Mac, knocking him off the platform into the other villagers. "I will kill everyone who dared to vote for me!" she screamed, leaping down after Mac, her claws and fangs lengthening rapidly.
"It's a Werewolf!" cried Isabellyka.
"We know!" shouted Farael as he grabbed a piece of firewood and hurled it at Nerwen.
But the throw missed. It passed over Nerwen's head as she fell forward onto her face. And there she lay, unmoving, with a wood-working knife embedded in her spine.
"Nice throw, morm," said SPM.
The fog rose high into the air, and seemed to glow red with wrath.
Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- Day 2 Hunter victim (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- Day 3 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
IT IS NOW NIGHT 4. YOU MAY NOT POST.
the phantom
12-30-2007, 02:55 PM
When the villagers awoke, they were shocked to see that, yet again, no one was missing.
"Excellent! The Ranger was successful!" said one.
"I think not," said another, "For on the shore by my house are fresh tracks, and the prints are of varying sizes. Three Werebeasts there are, I believe."
"Yes," agreed another, "For I certainly heard more than two voices howling during the night."
Those who were unconvinced left to examine the tracks themselves, and indeed it was true. There were three Werewolves in the village.
Villagers- 9
Werewolves- 3
Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- Day 2 Hunter victim (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- Day 3 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
IT IS NOW DAY 4. YOU MAY POST
Farael
12-30-2007, 04:22 PM
How odd that no-one has posted just yet... I really hope what happened last night was the Ranger getting lucky again, for I have something important to tell y'all... hang in there for my very own narration ('cos I feel like telling it this way)
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 04:24 PM
All right, so no one died.
I find it quite hard to believe that we would be so lucky twice in a row, so if yesterDay was the Ranger's protection, toDay it really very probably wasn't. So even though we happened to lynch a wolf yesterDay (under rather very lucky circumstances, if you ask me), there is probably one more running around now so we are still at the same number.
Well, let's say it more optimistically: how lucky we caught Nerwen yesterDay, because now there will be one more of them.
That is, if the wolves really got the Cursed Villager. But I can't possibly imagine the scenario, since the Ranger cannot protect one person twice in a row, that the Wolves would attack person X on Night 3, find that person protected, and then attack person Y on Night 4 and by very bad luck this person is also protected. Not speaking of the ubelievable luck (or rather, bad luck for the wolves) needed for this scenario, a logically thinking wolf would surely attack the person he knows cannot be protected this Night if he wanted this person killed the Night before, unless he had really good reasons not to do so.
Which brings me to an interesting idea. Aside from the Wolves, of course, only the Ranger knows whom he protected (and I believe also whether he confronted the wolves or not). But in the logic of the scenario I outlined above - i.e. the Wolves attacking logically the person they attacked the Day before - the Ranger could now know who is the newly created Wolf. Am I clear? I mean: Night 3 - Wolves attack X, but X is protected. Night 4 - Wolves attack X again and X turns into a Wolf. Ergo, X was a Cursed villager. Yet, the Ranger protected this person, so he knows who it is.
I am saying this to pose a question, whether it could not be possible for the Ranger to somehow pass this information to us? I don't know if revealing himself would be a good move at this time, yet I wanted to bring this forward as an idea. If it helps us to nail the newly-formed Wolf... I would like to hear what others think about this, and about Nightly events, and everything.
Will be around for some time yet and will check yesterDays votes and then go to sleep. See ya.
EDIT: x-ed with Farael
Farael
12-30-2007, 04:36 PM
When the sun dawned Farael was already awake.
"They don't believe me... they never do... all these nights, I've been telling them but nooo he's Farael, the conspiracy theorist... noooo he's just doing his job, is he not? Well, I'll show them... I'll show them and then I will not be the only one who sees!"
He walked down the streets, screaming atop of his lungs Hear ye'! Hear ye! and when a mild crowd of interested villagers gathered around him, he started with his tale
"Since before I recall, I have been haunted by nightmares. Oh yeah, I knew who stole Eomer's favourite shovel... but did you listen to me? "Oh, he's Farael, he HAS to do that..." "Oh, that's what he always does"...
Well, now I understand that my curse is a blessing for you all... for you all... other than a few."
Farael walked up some conveniently placed steps and pointed at the crowd "I SEE THINGS... I KNOW THINGS!!! At night the howling of the wolves keeps me awake, and when I fall into accursed sleep I see them... All furry and scary-looking, with death in their eyes and curses in their breath. But now... now it is a time to put an end to this all! Hearken me, for I can tell you who two of the wolves are. Let us hope that no more have been turned, for i fear for my safety and so I will tell you what I know"
Last day, at least some of you must have noticed that I suddenly accused Macalaure, whom previously I thought an innocent. It was a gamble, as I feared he would realize what I was and haunt me in the night. But I wanted to help the village, give us at least one more night for me to see something in my dreams.
And I noted something. There is a villager who has claimed in the past that she can read Macalaure like a book. She knows when he's a wolf and yet... he was a wolf and ... she was defending him?
So this night I concentrated on Rikae to see if I would dream of her, and praise the Valar I did! To find her... A WOLF
My fellow villagers, victory is near at hand, if the two death-less nights were due to the Ranger's efforts and not a new wolf being turned.
Either way, this knowledge is too precious to go to waste should I be killed at night.
I also know the identity of two innocent villagers, but I will not disclose it yet, so as to avoid giving the wolves an easy target. Should the Ranger choose to tell me that she has protected me tonight, and so cannot do it another night, I will say whom I know to be innocent. However, for the time being, I'll keep that to myself, best to avoid helping the enemy.
So in summary,
Macalaure is a wretched wolf
Rikae is his assistant
and I know of two innocents, whom I will not name to hopefully protect them for another night.
And in case you have not realized it just yet I am your friendly neighbourhood Seer
Edit: X-ed with Legate
Farael
12-30-2007, 04:38 PM
While I don't want to encourage the Ranger to speak up, It might help us if he mentioned whom he protected the last two nights, should she choose to talk. That way we'll have a better understanding of whom else may be an ordo and whom may be a turned wolf.
However, if both Macalaure and The Ranger picked up on my flip-flop and thought me a Seer, perhaps we got lucky and I got protected from the wolves.
Rikae
12-30-2007, 04:54 PM
So in summary,
Macalaure is a wretched wolf
Rikae is his assistant
Now, Wolfael, why exactly do I get designated as the "assistant"? As a wolf, I would be equally as fiendish, deadly and vicious as Macalaure would - and wouldn't let him be the boss. :p
After all, it was me protecting him last Night, not the other way around.
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:02 PM
Now, Wolfael, why exactly do I get designated as the "assistant"? As a wolf, I would be equally as fiendish, deadly and vicious as Macalaure would - and wouldn't let him be the boss. :p
After all, it was me protecting him last Night, not the other way around.
Hahha nice try, but you are as good as dead, even if you do somehow convince the vilalge I'm not the Seer... but yes, you were protecting him, hence why I said you were "assisting" him.
Does it matter? you are a wolf and you'll face the pitchforks and torches :D
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 05:09 PM
Okay. YesterDay's votes went this way:
Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1, Aganzir 1)
Macalaure Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Legate: Aganzir (Aganzir 3, Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Eomer: Might (Aganzir 3, Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 2, Eomer 1)
Boromir: - Might (Aganzir 3, Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
(Aganzir&Mac, these silly switch-votes, I don't count them as they changed nothing)
Nerwen: Mac (Mac 4, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Boromir: Nerwen (Mac 4, Nerwen 4, Aganzir 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: - Aganzir, Nerwen (Nerwen 5, Mac 4, Aganzir 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
So, all in all: after looking through the list and through the votes themselves and in what situations they were sent, I find this all going in favor of the Nerwen-voters. Starting, continuing, finishing, finishing and finishing the bandwagon was all too dangerous for wolves to do and it went too unpredictably to be planned, in my opinion. So Kath, morm, Isabell, Boro and Rikae climb higher in trust at me. There is of course the problem that my inborn suspiciousness does not want to accept so easily that there is indeed no Wolf among the Nerwen voters yet, as I said, this speaks for their favor and I will need to look at every single one of them more closely to decide more.
Concerning Nerwen herself, I will probably need to look at her closely yet later toDay. For now, only concerning her voting: her last minute jump on Mac when Aganzir was about to be lynched. This would point for the innocence of Mac and eventually against the innocence of Aganzir, or at least for more value of Aganzir in Nerwen's eyes than the value of Mac. The point is that she obviously saved Aganzir this way, yet ultimately met her own fate by this move as it roused a reaction. And quite logical one: I found Nerwen's action rather odd at the time. She was safe whether Agan or Mac was lynched, thus, her retraction can possibly point only to the logical conclusion that she wanted Mac lynched and/or wanted Agan saved. Why would she do that if Aganzir was innocent? The more if even Mac was a wolf?
EDIT: x-ed with these interesting folks above.
Rikae
12-30-2007, 05:12 PM
While I don't want to encourage the Ranger to speak up, It might help us if he mentioned whom he protected the last two nights, should she choose to talk.
I'm sure that's exactly what you hoped to do, Farael.
Well, since you've forced my hand, I will do just that.
I protected Macalaure on Night2, Legate on Night3, and Macalaure again on Night4 - and you are the one who is done for, once my role is revealed.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 05:14 PM
*points up* Whoa! Now what the heck is that? I'm getting a serious crisis of thought. The more after what I just concluded.
Farael, so you say you dreamt of Mac yesterNight and Rikae toNight and they are wolves? How do you interpretate the yesterDay's votes?
Rikae, you say you are the Ranger? Care to say in that case whom you protected this Night and the Night before? (cf. my first post toDay above)
EDIT: x-ed with Rikae.
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:16 PM
I'm sure that's exactly what you hoped to do, Farael.
Well, since you've forced my hand, I will do just that.
I protected Macalaure on Night2, Legate on Night3, and Macalaure again on Night4 - and you are the one who is done for, once my role is revealed.
That's a wild move, you are not the ranger and I know it ;) But I strongly advice the Ranger against speaking up, or else he'll be mince-meat tonight, and we don't know whether there is an extra wolf in the game right now, therefore we need all the gifteds we can get.
As a Seer, I felt that knowing the potentially last two wolves it was too dangerous to keep to myself, but the Ranger should choose by him or herself whether to speak up.
All I can say is, no, you are definitely not it.
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:19 PM
Farael, so you say you dreamt of Mac yesterNight and Rikae toNight and they are wolves? How do you interpretate the yesterDay's votes?
Well Legate two nights ago I dreamt of Macalaure hoping to clear his name.. I mean come on, this whole deal with Nogrod was too good to be a wolf ploy.
I found him a wolf. That changed my mindset completely... they were clearly not beyond killing off one of their own in order to look innocent.
And let's face it, Nerwen was under heavy fire from a bunch of Ordos, she would've been gone sooner or later... so they chose to finish her off themselves so that they'd look better.
And keep in mind that, since the wolves can communicate during the day, they were able to ask Nerwen if she was ok with it so that no feelings were hurt.
They are clever, but I was luckier.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 05:19 PM
Oh my, I'll probably need to sleep on this. You can't start pulling these things at me in time like this. The more that I now trusted both of you. :roll seventy eyes at once:
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 05:21 PM
And let's face it, Nerwen was under heavy fire from a bunch of Ordos, she would've been gone sooner or later... so they chose to finish her off themselves so that they'd look better.
And keep in mind that, since the wolves can communicate during the day, they were able to ask Nerwen if she was ok with it so that no feelings were hurt.
Okay, just then why did she switch to Mac when Agan should've been lynched? Even if Agan is by some strange coincidence also a wolf, why not let her die and vote another wolf? You know what I mean?
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:24 PM
Okay, just then why did she switch to Mac when Agan should've been lynched? Even if Agan is by some strange coincidence also a wolf, why not let her die and vote another wolf? You know what I mean?
I'm sure they'll be able to tell you better than myself when the game ends what they were thinking, but my guess is that they were willing to kill off a few of their own early on to be put "beyond suspicion" and so coast to an easy win in the end. Let's face it, if they had caught me before I could have caught them, the village would have been in serous trouble!!
Macalaure
12-30-2007, 05:24 PM
I was wondering what the twist about this game was, and now I at least know one. We are having ourselves a cobbler here. I don't think a wolf would pose as the seer at this point in the game.
Farael, honestly, even if I didn't know you were posing from knowing my own role, I wouldn't believe you - at least not easily. Your scene up there looks all too cobblerish. It's cobblers who like to make such a spectacle out of themselves.
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:28 PM
I was wondering what the twist about this game was, and now I at least know one. We are having ourselves a cobbler here. I don't think a wolf would pose as the seer at this point in the game.
Farael, honestly, even if I didn't know you were posing from knowing my own role, I wouldn't believe you - at least not easily. Your scene up there looks all too cobblerish. It's cobblers who like to make such a spectacle out of themselves.
Macalaure I am beyond "fear" of being killed or even lynched right now. True, you may manage to turn the village against me today, but a day later you'll be done for. What I just hope is that you don't manage to find the cursed villager before then.
Macalaure
12-30-2007, 05:30 PM
I'm sure they'll be able to tell you better than myself when the game ends what they were thinking, but my guess is that they were willing to kill off a few of their own early on to be put "beyond suspicion" and so coast to an easy win in the end. Let's face it, if they had caught me before I could have caught them, the village would have been in serous trouble!!
This just makes no sense. Wolves that kill of one of their own kind is credible. But killing off half of them? That's suicidal. They need to think of their numbers. One wolf less also means one day more to survive through.
(ed. crossed with Farael)
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:31 PM
Just in case my last comment wasn't clear, the fact that I know my role and I know two wolves means that I can just enjoy having fun and speaking up without fear of getting lynched/killed at night. Yes, I mean to help the village as much as I can for the possibility that the cursed has been turned, but I'm not going to "quiet" anything down... I'll speak my mind!
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:32 PM
This just makes no sense. Wolves that kill of one of their own kind is credible. But killing off half of them? That's suicidal. They need to think of their numbers. One wolf less also means one day more to survive through.
Not really, keep in mind that Nerwen was drawing heavy suspicions from ORDOS... you finished her off, but she was a goner anyway.
Macalaure
12-30-2007, 05:36 PM
Macalaure I am beyond "fear" of being killed or even lynched right now. True, you may manage to turn the village against me today, but a day later you'll be done for. What I just hope is that you don't manage to find the cursed villager before then.
Well, I am not beyond fear. Although I am just an ordo, being lynched would put the wolves into a better situation.
I find it strange that you are beyond it. With the help of the ranger, you could at least survive one more night, which means one more dream and one more chance to catch the cursed who might have turned into a wolf tonight, or in the coming night. With the considerable possibility of one more wolf, the real seer would care to remain alive.
Rikae
12-30-2007, 05:40 PM
Not really, keep in mind that Nerwen was drawing heavy suspicions from ORDOS... you finished her off, but she was a goner anyway.
What you seem to fail to mention is that Mac never voted for Nerwen, and I never found her suspicious until that last weird post of hers! :rolleyes: Finished her off, indeed - if Mac and Nerwen were plotting together, my involvement at the last minute would not have been needed. Is that the best you can come up with?
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:41 PM
Well, I am not beyond fear. Although I am just an ordo, being lynched would put the wolves into a better situation.
I find it strange that you are beyond it. With the help of the ranger, you could at least survive one more night, which means one more dream and one more chance to catch the cursed who might have turned into a wolf tonight, or in the coming night. With the considerable possibility of one more wolf, the real seer would care to remain alive.
Actually, the help of the ranger is a given ;) and the fact that i'll die the night after that is likely too, unless you manage to discredit me... in that case, you'll keep me alive as long as you can so that you don't get shown a wolf.
Come on Mac let's face it... if you die this day, which I hope you will, I get shown the Seer. As such, I'm a liability for the wolves and will get attacked two nights from now. If you turn the village against me and discredit me as a cobbler who should be left alive but ignored, you may survive for a while... but I'll keep on dreaming!
Of course, the only thing oyu CAN do right now is to keep me alive but discredited and pray you find the cursed and I don't dream of him. However, if you discredit me, I am sure there are enough smart players in here that will choose to lynch me just in case ;) and well, while I don't want that to happen, I already decided that it was a good enough effort to give the village two wolves (one of them being you who has carefully positioned himself almost beyond suspicion) and pray they can find the possible third one on their own.
It's all I can do really, to try and live until the end, knowing the identity of two wolves is detrimental to the village as i may get killed and take that information with me.
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:44 PM
What you seem to fail to mention is that Mac never voted for Nerwen, and I never found her suspicious until that last weird post of hers! :rolleyes: Finished her off, indeed - if Mac and Nerwen were plotting together, my involvement at the last minute would not have been needed. Is that the best you can come up with?
Rikae, I said Mac, Nerwen and YOU were plotting together. And isn't the fact that you suddenly chose to vote for her almost too convenient?
Come on, you wolves have been trying to do things that "no wolf would do" Knowing that if the gamble paid off it'd lead you to victory... why would you not kill off a heavily suspected Nerwen?
Macalaure
12-30-2007, 05:48 PM
Come on Mac let's face it... if you die this day, which I hope you will, I get shown the Seer. As such, I'm a liability for the wolves and will get attacked two nights from now. If you turn the village against me and discredit me as a cobbler who should be left alive but ignored, you may survive for a while... but I'll keep on dreaming! I did not say I intend to keep you alive. We need to know you're not the seer. We can only do so by lynching you - or lynching me. For obvious reasons I prefer the former to the latter. I have no reason to doubt Rikae's ranger claim, so lynching her to obtain certainty is the worst we could do.
What I really am puzzled about is why you chose Rikae to be your other wolf. There must have been better choices.
Rikae
12-30-2007, 05:51 PM
However, if you discredit me, I am sure there are enough smart players in here that will choose to lynch me just in case ;)
So there may very well be.
++Farael
And to the other players - if Farael is lynched and turns out to be the seer, you have two wolves. However, if he is the cobbler and you lynch me or Macalaure today, you will have lost both your known innocents by tomorrow.
Macalaure
12-30-2007, 05:52 PM
Come on, you wolves have been trying to do things that "no wolf would do" Knowing that if the gamble paid off it'd lead you to victory... why would you not kill off a heavily suspected Nerwen?
It has been claimed that the wolves did that - in order to make me look bad, so far. Apparently, you think that Saucepan and Aganzir are the real wolves, so you try to help them this way now. If they really are our wolves, then I "fear" you're going to harm them more than you help them.
Rikae
12-30-2007, 05:54 PM
Rikae, I said Mac, Nerwen and YOU were plotting together. And isn't the fact that you suddenly chose to vote for her almost too convenient?
And why, exactly, would I have involved myself at all? Mac would have raised no eyebrows by defending himself - whereas me defending him...
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:54 PM
I did not say I intend to keep you alive. We need to know you're not the seer. We can only do so by lynching you - or lynching me. For obvious reasons I prefer the former to the latter. I have no reason to doubt Rikae's ranger claim, so lynching her to obtain certainty is the worst we could do.
Yet you called me the cobbler, and we both know that if you find the cobbler you don't lynch him, you ignore him... as he counts as an "ordo" in the final tally, he gives the innocents another day to catch the wolves.
Of course, I called your bluff and now you have to try and get me lynched...
By the way, if Rikae truly were the [B]Ranger[/B} why would she come out and say it?
Worst case scenario, YOU get lynched and found an ordo and I get discredited... why claim to be the Ranger so soon?
Of course, other than to cow other villagers to follow her lead.
Farael
12-30-2007, 05:56 PM
And why, exactly, would I have involved myself at all? Mac would have raised no eyebrows by defending himself - whereas me defending him...
Because he was thought by many an ordo... therefore, by defending a "known" ordo you look better... and should his cover have been blown, you wouldn't have been the only one fooled.... so they can't really hold that against you, can they?
And since you are here, do tell me why you claimed to be the Ranger ;)
Isabellkya
12-30-2007, 06:03 PM
Wow.. just wow.. some interesting things have definately happened.
Sacrificing half of your team seems a bit too risky to me; yet both of them had been under fire. I'm sure if Nerwen had not been lynched yesterDay, she just might've been toDay. Remember that the wolves chose to kill Shasta Night one, so I wouldn't put anything past them at this point.
Aganzir sticks out in my mind; as she was vocally against lynching Nerwen; yet it seems just a bit too obvious for me. However, I won't discard the thought; as we seem to have some very bold wolves on our hands. That may have been why Nerwen did not want to vote Aganzir; because she was one of the people who were not voting for her.
X'd with Farael.
Isabellkya
12-30-2007, 06:06 PM
Why is the role called a Ranger, if you only seem to protect others?
Macalaure
12-30-2007, 06:06 PM
Yet you called me the cobbler, and we both know that if you find the cobbler you don't lynch him, you ignore him... as he counts as an "ordo" in the final tally, he gives the innocents another day to catch the wolves.Who said that? Harmless cobblers can be left alive. Dangerous cobblers, and you no doubt are one, should rather be lynched. We need certainty here.
Of course, I called your bluff and now you have to try and get me lynched... I don't know what bluff you are talking of. I want to get you lynched and nothing else. I said so before.
++Farael
Because he was thought by many an ordo...Did I miss something yesterday? ;)
Farael
12-30-2007, 06:08 PM
Did I miss something yesterday? ;)
Come on, half the village wanted to lynch you, half the village wanted to save you... you missed nothing, many an ordo thought you an ordo.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 06:19 PM
I don't want to repeat this for the fourth time over, yet, this is the question that does not allow me to sleep; why, why did Nerwen vote Mac? If Aganzir is innocent (which, if Farael speaks the truth, she must be as there are only four Wolves; unless she was turned into a Wolf earlier), why just don't let her die and goodbye? Sacrificing two wolves? I listen to bold theories about bold moves, yet isn't that indeed a little too much?
I'm puzzled. I'm most puzzled ever. But hope it will be better. Where are other people? Are they watching and enjoying this discourse?
We have three subjects. At least someone of them is lying. Now what can a villager do? Two options: Vote for Mac (or Rikae): if he is a wolf, then Farael is right and we lynch the other one later and unless there is another wolf, hooray, the end. If he is not, then the wolves probably finish off the other one at Night, and we are going to vote for Farael the next Day. Vote for Farael: if he is a wolf, then hooray, only again, the wolves probably finish off one of the pair at Night. If he is not a wolf, then we lose the Seer, someone else at Night and then we have two Days to lynch Mac and Rikae. Hm.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-30-2007, 06:25 PM
Sacrificing half of your team seems a bit too risky to me; yet both of them had been under fire. I'm sure if Nerwen had not been lynched yesterDay, she just might've been toDay. Remember that the wolves chose to kill Shasta Night one, so I wouldn't put anything past them at this point.
Aganzir sticks out in my mind; as she was vocally against lynching Nerwen; yet it seems just a bit too obvious for me. However, I won't discard the thought; as we seem to have some very bold wolves on our hands. That may have been why Nerwen did not want to vote Aganzir; because she was one of the people who were not voting for her.
Isa, you seem to think around similar lines as me. Only in fact, Nerwen did not simply not-vote for Aganzir, she saved her. If Mac is a wolf, this move does not make sense: it may be good to leave alive someone who trusts you, yet sacrificing a fellow wolf is definitely not worth it. Also, this move surely did not make Nerwen look better in the eyes of the others - she ended up dead herself.
And now I am going to sleep. Really.
Farael
12-30-2007, 06:37 PM
Isa, you seem to think around similar lines as me. Only in fact, Nerwen did not simply not-vote for Aganzir, she saved her. If Mac is a wolf, this move does not make sense: it may be good to leave alive someone who trusts you, yet sacrificing a fellow wolf is definitely not worth it. Also, this move surely did not make Nerwen look better in the eyes of the others - she ended up dead herself.
And now I am going to sleep. Really.
I don't see Nerwen saving Aganzir as much as I see her voting for Mac... and once again, with Nerwen shown a wolf, Mac looks better 'cos of that vote.
I can't say I understand what the wolves were doing, perhaps it has something to do with the "twists" we don't know about and there's a division among the wolves, I have no idea... and we'll have to cope with the twists as they come. I don't want to speculate on that too much, whatever it is that the wolves were trying to do, it played out in our favour.
About your previous scenarios, I am not against being lynched today, but that'd give the wolves two nights to look for the cursed if they haven't found it yet. Furthermore, if I'm alive not this night but the next and the cursed was turned, s/he is likely to try and get me so that I can't get lucky a third time and dream of that person.
So villagers, it's your call... either way, at the end of the Day things will be much clearer.
Farael
12-30-2007, 06:39 PM
Sorry, I wasn't clear on something... the cursed getting me two nights from now means that at least you wouldn't lose another ordo, however if you lynch me tonight and then lynch Mac and Rikae you'll lose three innocent villagaers (barring a Ranger save) if the Cursed was turned.
Boromir88
12-30-2007, 07:17 PM
Rikae's a fraud...I'm the ranger, and Farael is the seer...trust him.
Though I am deeply confused because I did protect Mac on Night 3, hence my clue left in my first post. Anyway, yesterday I protected Farael and Night 2 I protected Farael.
Farael
12-30-2007, 07:24 PM
Rikae's a fraud...I'm the ranger, and Farael is the seer...trust him.
Though I am deeply confused because I did protect Mac on Night 3, hence my clue left in my first post. Anyway, yesterday I protected Farael and Night 2 I protected Farael.
Thanks Boro you were my Night 2 dream... but I didn't want to flush you out if you didn't do so yourself. But if you protected Mac and there was no kill that means it's likely the cursed was turned..... That'd bad news, but getting rid of Rikae and Macalaure would be a good idea.
Boromir88
12-30-2007, 07:28 PM
What I want to try to figure out here, Rikae is definitely a wolf...but I can't figure out Mac.
I chose to protect him on Night 3, from the narration it looked like it was a successful defense, and hence why I was so staunchly defending him yesterday and why I left this clue...
If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...
Edit:
But if you protected Mac and there was no kill that means it's likely the cursed was turned~Farael
Oh that's what this must have met in the narration...darn tricky narrations I got to thinking I had two successful protections.
"Nay!" answered the fog. "It is I who have had the victory this night."
Boromir88
12-30-2007, 07:38 PM
Oh...and before I leave in a little bit, sorry if this puts you in danger buddy, but morm is innocent too. I was able to communicate with Valier, and her last choice to kill was morm. That is why I suddenly switched after Eomer pointed this out. I missed that little bit at first :rolleyes::
I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules).
The Saucepan Man
12-30-2007, 08:15 PM
Cripes!
OK, so if I have it right, there are two possible scenarios, one of which is the correct one:
1) Farael is the Seer, Boro the Ranger, and Mac and Rikae both Wolves. In this scenario, it looks likely that the Cursed was awakened on Night 3.
2) Mac is an Ordo, Rikae the Ranger, and Farael and Boro both Wolves (or one a Cobbler). In this scenario, it seems that the Cursed may have been awakened last Night.
Wow! I knew that we had bold Wolves. I worked out overNight that only two living villagers have never voted for a Wolf - Farael and the Might - which indicates that, unless both are Wolves (which I thought unlikely then, and think even less likely now), there has been at least one Wolf-on-Wolf vote ending in the death of a Wolf. But it seems that they are even bolder than I imagined.
Right now, I really don’t know who to trust. After Nerwen’s death, I must say that I thought Farael looked bad. After all, his vote on Day 2 meant that Valier died instead of Nerwen and his vote yesterDay might be construed as an attempt to save Nerwen.
That said, I have suspected Mac throughout much of the proceedings, and would not be at all surprised if he turned out to be a Wolf. I also found Rikae’s last minute switch to Nerwen yesterDay strange and wondered whether it might be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I find it quite credible that the Wolves would sacrifice another of their number, given that she was under such pressure, to gain credibility in future Days. In fact, if either Boro or Rikae is a Wolf, then there was most definitely a Wolf-on-Wolf vote to kill Nerwen. Note, whichever one is a Wolf, they could have voted differently, and probably killed an innocent, yet chose to vote Nerwen (although it is, I suppose, possible that Boro is a Cobbler rather than a Wolf).
As for Boro, well I have pretty much trusted him thus far. I noticed the hints yesterDay (but didn‘t get the Mac thing), and that lends some credibility to his story. But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?
I also think it worth raising one further possibility. We know that there are a number of secret roles, giving rise to a twist or twists. Is it possible that one or more of toDay’s revelations are a consequence of this? Might there be a false Seer? Might other revelations be the product of some secret role bearing its own agenda? Even if this be the case, however, I cannot see that there would be two Rangers, or even a false Ranger. Surely, either Boro or Rikae is up to no good.
I would suggest that the best way forward is to compare toDay’s revelations against the background of the past few Days’ votes and behaviour. My instinct is to trust Farael and Boro, but I cannot be at all certain at present.
The Saucepan Man
12-30-2007, 08:38 PM
Some quick thoughts from the votes and past behaviour.
Given that Nerwen is a Wolf, Kath, Isabellkya, morm and Eomer are, for their continued attacks on her, looking quite good to me right now. Although I would be interested to know why Eomer changed the habit of the previous two Days and voted for The Might yesterDay.
The Might’s defence of Nerwen on Day 1 makes him look quite bad. But, unless he is a Wolf to Farael or Boro’s Cobbler, he could not have been a Wolf on Day 1.
Rikae voted in bandwagons against innocents on Day 1 and Day 2. Yet put in a decisive vote for a Wolf yesterDay. What I would like to know from her is why she has appeared to suspect Mac throughout Days 2 and 3, yet pulled back from voting for him both Days, claiming that he should be given more time. Also, why she protected him at Night when she was openly suspecting him during the Day. I think that Mac and Rikae’s interaction throughout will be worth reviewing. Funnily enough, it was Nogrod that first raised the possibility of them being Wolves together. Perhaps, as I said before, he was telling a truth to conceal it.
As for the voting yesterDay, some more questions:
Rikae, why did you switch at the last minute to Nerwen?
Same question to Boro.
Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.
Also, a point that Legate raised, I think, but worth raising again. If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir? Is Aganzir the Cursed? Strange that she should make such a case against Mac, if that be the case. Or did they decide to reenact Day 1 and agree that one of them could be sacrificed to make the other look better. If so, why didn’t Mac vote for Nerwen? That switch of Nerwen’s is the one thing that really makes me hesitate over Mac being a Wolf.
It's late here, and I have neither the time nor the inclination to go back over the proceedings thus far to do any detailed analysis. I shall try tomorrow, but it is New Year's Eve in my head and I have imaginary guests coming, so I don't know how much I can be present in this village.
The Saucepan Man
12-30-2007, 09:38 PM
Bah! I couldn’t sleep with all this buzzing round in my head, so here’s my theory wot I have come up with.
Farael is a Wolf. With hindsight, his voting is quite suggestive of it. He voted for Shasta on Day 1, someone who the Wolves had either figured to be the Seer (for his first post comments on Nogrod and Nerwen) or an easy Day 1 kill, or both. He voted for Valier on Day 2, which helped to save Nerwen that Day. He tried very hard to get Mac (an innocent in this scenario) killed yesterDay in order to save Nerwen again.
So why does a Wolf come up with this Seer ploy on Day 4, having already lost two of his comrades, knowing that it will be the death of him eventually? It seems an unlikely thing to do, but I'm pretty sure that we have a bold pack of Wolves on our hands and perhaps they thought that it was worth it to get either Mac or Rikae lynched toDay or alternatively flush out the real Seer. Possibly, if they have gained the Cursed, they think that the remaining two Wolves have a good chance of toughing it out.
Boro is the Cobbler. He didn’t know who the Wolves were, which explains his vote yesterDay for Nerwen. He dropped a few Ranger hints yesterDay to muddy the waters (perhaps guessing that the Cursed had been found and trying to disguise it), but at the same time warned the Wolves off by saying that it would not be worth their while to attack him at Night (or words to that effect, if I recall correctly). ToDay, he has correctly identified Farael’s revelation as a ploy, and has played along in support of it.
OK, it’s just a theory and I am by no means wholly convinced of it. But I can imagine it, or something like it, being possible, and it would certainly explain the votes of Nerwen and Farael yesterDay.
And now I really must away to the land of nod. Hopefully, when I return, there will be more to work on to help me make up my mind as I really am torn at present.
mormegil
12-30-2007, 10:29 PM
Wow! So after Nerwen's death and being a wolf I thought I had a good handle on the goings on, but I must say that I am fully confused. I think SpM is being rather wise in looking objectively on it. The problem as I see it, is there are going to be two groups:
Farael, Boro, Mac and Rikae
and
The rest of us.
Obviously the rest of us are the larges voting block and it is up to us to decide. I think we should be as objective as possible and try and sort this mess out. Of course, there is the chance that there is a wolf amongst us which might sway us a bit but one out of so many is fairly negligible at this point.
I'm trying to remember where I read this, but something I read brought to my mind that Mac may have been the cursed turned evil. That would explain why he was going after Nogrod on day 1, he unknowingly was attacking a future ally. I think it is safe to say that if Mac is a wolf so is Rikae and that Farael is telling the truth. The question, in this scenario, is who would be the third wolf. I would suggest the Might as he has been fairly defensive of Nerwen. When I came into this today I was convinced to kill the Might, obviously that is on hold now.
I could see that Boro or Farael is a cobbler and one a wolf though I'm not sure of that because if Farael is a cobbler why would Boro come out and do what he has done? Boro, previous to this, was looking pretty good so why would he expose himself. If Farael is a wolf I could see that Boro is a cobbler. Here again, SpM speaks wisdom though. Could Farael be a false seer and unwittingly flushed out our ranger? I doubt the possibilty of two cobblers but it's something to consider.
Right now the scenario that makes most sense to me is Farael being the seer. He had his dream and wisely stepped forward with his two wolves before risking death. I would like to consult with the other not involved in this and get their take on it, though I'm loth to listen to The Might.
My head is spinning with confusion.
Farael
12-31-2007, 12:14 AM
SPM you talked yourself into a knot there... and as much as I'd like to see you dead to avenge past aggravations, you were my night 1 dream and I found you an ordo.
Of course, since there's reason to believe the cursed was turned, you may very well be a wolf now (which would explain your confusing logic) but then, since I know I am the Seer, anyone suspecting me sounds kinda dubious.
Now, Morm voiced one of my biggest fears... my dreams were as follow
Night 1: SPM Innocent (keep in mind the cursed is likely to be turned)
Night 2: Boromir Ranger
Night 3: Macalaure Wolf
Night 4: Rikae Wolf
Now up until Boromir said he was the Ranger I was worried I'd be a false seer... I mean c'mon, a gifted and two wolves in four dreams? but now I'm fairly confident I AM the Seer, unless Phantom has some weird weird twists in mind.
My thoughts on this is that there was some sort of a rift among the Werewolves... it would explain their killing off numbers of their own without it being a nth bluff. Perhaps there were two teams, or perhaps the wolves were each man for themselves... though of course, they can't come out and actively accuse one another since that'd mark them as wolves themselves.
I don't know, I'm trying hard not to focus too much on the twists... right now we have two wolves to lynch and potentially a third one to hunt down and as long as I'm alive and dreaming there's the chance I'll stumble on to the remaining wolf... and then no twists can change that.
the phantom
12-31-2007, 03:04 AM
TALLY
Sorry, there's no narrative yet, but I do have the tally up in my day-beginning post.
Carry on.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-31-2007, 04:39 AM
Two things for start.
1. Why did so few people post while I was sleeping? Not that I don't like reading only a few things after being away for so long, yet where is everyone right now?
2. This did not help. I am still confused.
Now Boro appeared. So whatever the case, we have one Ranger and one Pseudo-Ranger (unless there is another third Ranger somewhere, I am not going to be surprised by anything now). The problem is that all the theories are equally probable. Since Farael came up with Boro on his list - and SpM now after SpM has spoken - only after he revealed, it does not necessarily have to mean Farael speaks truth, it is quite easy to think of this as a response move (wolf would do that, or a cobbler, or whoever). The wolves are bold, whatever the case. SpM's points make sense to me, as do morm's. Yet still, it does not help at all. If I trusted my earlier opinions and judgements, I would trust Mac. But what if...?
Ai, ai. I will probably read and reread and think and rethink and then I will return and hopefully, be more clear later.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-31-2007, 05:07 AM
Still digesting all this, but I'll answer Saucepan Man's question. I didn't know there was going to be all those retractions at day's end yesterday; I thought it was down to me and Nerwen to vote. Knowing that she could easily counter if I voted for her (by voting Mac or Aganzir) I tried to enlist her help in lynching the Might rather than Mac or Aganzir. Nerwen seemed in an enviable position, and moments later things had contrived to get her killed!
I thought it might give us a talking point today, but perhaps not now. :p
Aganzir
12-31-2007, 05:11 AM
Villagers- 9
Werewolves- 3
+ two dead werewolves. So the cursed was turned. I guess I will take a look at Days 1 and 2 and see if I could figure out whom Mac & Rikae/Nerwen might have wanted to kill (in case the cursed wasn't Rikae or Nerwen).
Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.
Honestly, I didn't realise I could have done that. All I could think on those last crazy moments was that it'd be either Mac or me.
If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir?
Especially as Rikae had said she'd switch to Nerwen in order to save Mac. Surely Nerwen hadn't missed that; she had to know she was going to die if she voted him. But if both Mac and Rikae are wolves, what a nice little plan it would have been to clear them both.
**
A piece of information: I will be travelling to London with a friend & her family on Jan 2. I guess there's a net access at the hotel, so I should be able to vote & post at least something. But in the worst case I'll miss Day 6.
edit: xed with Eomer
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 06:11 AM
But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?~Sauce
I was fully expecting to be dead, but I think Farael's sudden aggressive attack against Mac yesterday tipped the wolves off so I protected Farael. I'm sorry, with this I have to be, how to say...secretive? But, I'm bound to only say this, you'll have to put the pieces together. Yesterday I said there was someone's judgement whom I trust more than my own and I guarded Farael on Night 2 as well...now figure it out.
++Rikae
I don't know if I can get back before the deadline, I hope to be to get down to who this last wolf will be.
Aganzir
12-31-2007, 06:45 AM
Ok, this hasn't much to do with the subject, but I found it funny. Could it be another reason why the wolves decided to kill Shasta? :D
Hmm, Nerwen seems to be anxious to turn the subject onto something harmless. Basket Weaving? The weather? How is this going to help us catch wolves and turn their pelts into fur coats? I've got my eye on you, Nerwen...
**
Rikae, Day 2:
However, (although I hate to say it) Macalaure's post indeed looks sinister to me. I don't see how his arguments against Aganzir for turning so suddenly and viciously against Nogrod don't apply to Mac himself just as well, for although he opposed Nogrod from the beginning, he had little to back it up at first - it came out of the blue in what was quite possibly a preplanned way. Furthermore, his final "PS" sends chills up my spine. There is the same taunting, gloating quality there I saw Macwolf demonstrate in the last game.
At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier ...
Rikae, Day 3:
I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.
Based on this quick change, I guess it's safe to say that if either Rikae or Nerwen was the cursed, it was Rikae. On Day 2 she had been suspecting Macalaure to the extent of almost voting him, on Day 3 she was completely on his side. This indicates that she's either the cursed or that she's the seer who dreamt of innocent Mac. It's not hard to decide which one sounds more probable.
I must run now. Back later.
The Saucepan Man
12-31-2007, 07:39 AM
SPM you talked yourself into a knot there...Well, I thought myself into a knot there. I was concerned that my earlier suspicion of Mac might be biasing me against him and in favour of you, and so started thinking about the plausibility of you and Boro being Wolves or Wolf and Cobbler. Problem is, I found it quite plausible. Or, should I say, plausible as the Wolves killing one of their number not once but twice.
Of course, since there's reason to believe the cursed was turned, you may very well be a wolf now (which would explain your confusing logic) but then, since I know I am the Seer, anyone suspecting me sounds kinda dubious.Now this I don't like. I come up with a Wolfael theory, and you immediately respond with a post designed to 'get me on side', as it were, while also attempting to tarnish me with possible Cursedness. It doesn't make you look any better in my eyes.
Especially as Rikae had said she'd switch to Nerwen in order to save Mac. Surely Nerwen hadn't missed that; she had to know she was going to die if she voted him. But if both Mac and Rikae are wolves, what a nice little plan it would have been to clear them both.But surely, if they are both Wolves, it would have made more sense for Rikae to leave her vote where it was (particularly as her last minute switch would draw attention to her) and for Nerwen to switch to you. It might have meant Nerwen being lynched toDay, but it wouldn't have made Rikae and Mac look particularly bad, and would have got rid of an innocent rather than a Wolf yesterDay (assuming that you are innocent).
Arrgh! I am still torn. I need to hear more from Rikae and Mac before making up my mind.
mormegil
12-31-2007, 07:44 AM
Okay, I'm back and I see not much has really changed. The discouraging part at this point is how little we've heard from the 'other' group. Only SpM, Agan, Legata and me have posted. Where is Kath, The Might, Isabel and Eomer (both posted a bit but not much). They are four that might bring some help to the table.
The next question I have, is how far do you think that the phantom is willing to go? Meaning how crazy would this 'twist(s)' be? The reason I ask is because there are certain possibilies which in my conspiracy theorist convoluded mind I entertain but am hesistant to bring forward in fear of muddying the waters even further. The reason I don't is because they are so far fetched as to be near impossible, even for the phantom to do.
Now my thoughts haven't changed much and I still think the Boro/Farael combo seems a bit more realistic but the problem I'm having is that I haven't been able to wrap my mind around all the possibilities and widdle it down to the most likely. The variable here is how far is the phantom willing to go. I think for the sake of my sanity, I've drawn a line and stated that the Phantom would not cross this line...and if I do that in all likely hood Farael is the seer.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-31-2007, 07:45 AM
There's nothing in the rules about the Ranger and the Hunter being able to communicate in private. Are you, Boromir, perhaps trying to sway Mormegil to your side by buddying up to his innocence? Possibly the only reason you know he is innocent is because he is not a wolf like you.
Just a thought.
The Saucepan Man
12-31-2007, 07:51 AM
I was fully expecting to be dead, but I think Farael's sudden aggressive attack against Mac yesterday tipped the wolves off so I protected Farael. But surely, if you are the Ranger and the Wolves had picked up on your hints (which I am sure they would have done), their best move would have been to attack you, given that the Ranger cannot protect himself. Even if they had spotted a Seerish Farael, they could not have known whether he would be protected or not.
If Mac and Rikae are Wolves, I think that you would have been their likeliest target last Night.
mormegil
12-31-2007, 07:58 AM
There's nothing in the rules about the Ranger and the Hunter being able to communicate in private. Are you, Boromir, perhaps trying to sway Mormegil to your side by buddying up to his innocence? Possibly the only reason you know he is innocent is because he is not a wolf like you.
Just a thought.
To be honest, I'm kind of a sucker for such tactics. I tend to suspect those that suspect me and vice versa it's fairly pathetic really :rolleyes:
I'm glad to see both SpM and Eomer not trusting either party as I think it's 99% certain that you are not both wolves...at least one is innocent and it's good to get your perspective on things.
The Might
12-31-2007, 08:16 AM
Well...I feel like a fool now just like in the last game where all those I thought innocents were wolves and vice-versa.
To sum all up, I did trust Nerwen, I did think that she was an ordo based on her decisions, and, yes, I was totally wrong.
The problem is now I have no idea whom to trust and whom to not trust.
I mean, leaving Eomer aside now as he's in the background as most others after the recent events, there are two sides.
I really don't know what to believe about this whole revelation, on one hand it would be nice to think that indeed this is how things are, but on the other hand some things don't add up in my head either based on what has happened so far.
I'll wait to see what happens before I vote, as I am still unsure what side I should support.
Well, I am here, and am reminded of just how much I hate it when so many revelations appear at once. We have:
Farael as Seer.
Rikae as Wolf.
Mac as Wolf.
Boro as Ranger.
Or we have ... what? Rikae as Ranger and nothing else certain? I know which option I'd rather go for.
Farael being the Seer would explain the difference in playing style I've felt from him. But, and there is a but, I am not liking that he only reveals who he has dreamt of if they reveal first. That could make so much sense because obviously you don't want to reveal the Ranger, but it could also be a wonderful wolvish plot.
Oh dear, I think I'm going to start arguing myself in circles like Sauce. I want to trust Farael because look, two wolves! But I'm just not sure. I've been taken in by him before. I would say the simplest way to test the theory would be to lynch Rikae, as she seems to be the lynch pin to this, but if she is the Ranger then we've basically lost Ranger and Seer in one fell swoop as there will be no protection toNight.
I'm going to hang around for a bit, try and make up my mind.
Aganzir
12-31-2007, 08:47 AM
But surely, if they are both Wolves, it would have made more sense for Rikae to leave her vote where it was (particularly as her last minute switch would draw attention to her) and for Nerwen to switch to you. It might have meant Nerwen being lynched toDay, but it wouldn't have made Rikae and Mac look particularly bad, and would have got rid of an innocent rather than a Wolf yesterDay (assuming that you are innocent).
I agree that it would have made more sense. But all these days we've been discussing why the wolves have decided to do something unexpected, so I don't really know.
I would say the simplest way to test the theory would be to lynch Rikae, as she seems to be the lynch pin to this, but if she is the Ranger then we've basically lost Ranger and Seer in one fell swoop as there will be no protection toNight.
If Rikae is the ranger, Farael is not the seer & the real seer is still unknown, so lynching her wouldn't endanger the seer. Or did I miss something?
And what about lynching Mac then?
Macalaure
12-31-2007, 08:49 AM
Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?As I said before, I really did think her innocent. I was prepared to save myself by voting for her, but I thought there were no more votes left - I completely forgot about Nerwen's own. So my main goal remained to get Aganzir lynched, which is why I responded to her "--++" with my own and couldn't retract anymore when I saw what Nerwen did.
I know Farael isn't who he claims he is - or at least not who he thinks he is. I haven't though about the possibility of a false seer before.
But what about Boro? If Boro is telling the truth, then I think the situation looks like this. The wolves tried to kill me in Night 3, after I mostly went after Aganzir all day. This either means that Aganzir is a wolf and I was thought to be the seer, or the wolves tried to frame an innocent Aganzir.
But then, if they thought me to be the seer, why didn't they attack me again last night? I know I'm not the cursed, and even if I was, then Farael had no way of knowing that. (This is a flaw in morm's argument in 406) Did they change their mind because of something I said on Day 3? Did Nerwen see a chance yesterday to save herself (and Aganzir?) and lynch a possible seer at the same time? This doesn't seem to go together well.
Also, if Boro is telling the truth, then Rikae is obviously up to no good. In that case, Farael accidentally called a real wolf a wolf.
Boro can't be a wolf, I think, only a cobbler. But this would then mean that Farael is a wolf and not a cobbler, because two of that sort would be a little too much. Farael indeed could be a false seer. At the moment, this seems to be the most probable scenario to me.
If Boro is lying, then Rikae is the ranger. This would probably mean that Aganzir is innocent, because the wolves never came for me. What is there in Legate's posts that made him a target in Night 3?
I guess tp now has the confusion that he was looking for...
If Rikae is the ranger, Farael is not the seer & the real seer is still unknown, so lynching her wouldn't endanger the seer. Or did I miss something?
Oh you're quite right! I'm sorry, seems I had got muddled. Indeed, we lose the Ranger but the Seer is quite safe. Well now that's interesting.
mormegil
12-31-2007, 08:58 AM
Boro can't be a wolf, I think, only a cobbler. But this would then mean that Farael is a wolf and not a cobbler, because two of that sort would be a little too much. Farael indeed could be a false seer. At the moment, this seems to be the most probable scenario to me.
Is it possible that Boro is the ranger and Farael is a cobbler, wolf or false seer? I think in this scenario the false seer is least likely but it did seem odd that Farael waited until Boro proclaimed himself to reveal that he had dreamt of him. I can, in this light, see Farael's move as a perfect cobbler ploy. He not only flushed out the ranger but potentially a seer. If there is a seer out there that is not Farael, I would not recommend coming forward unless you have information that would be vital for us to win.
The more I think about what I said earlier the more imporbable it seems...the scenario I was talking about that I didn't want to bring forward was that Bororanger was cursed too. I really doubt this is possible but what got me thinking of it was when Boro said that he expected himself to be killed last night and well there was no death so???
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-31-2007, 09:03 AM
Well, we have to find out. It seems clear to me that our best option is killing Macalaure, because he's certainly not a gifted. Let us discover the rest of the puzzle once we have severed most of this fog. I don't know who is telling the truth, and frankly we don't have to worry too much about it at this stage. There are enough innocent villagers to work it out, whoever dies today.
Macalaure
12-31-2007, 09:13 AM
It seems clear to me that our best option is killing MacalaureI think you're going for the easiest option here. If there was no evidence who is speaking the truth and who is not, I would agree with you. But there is - we can make a good educated guess and not just lynch the seeming best option to find out what he is. :(
I've been wondering why our two rangers revealed themselves at all. A ranger who is known to the wolves is a dead ranger. If Rikae is for real, she could have waited with her revelation until later in the day. If the village had decided to lynch me first and not her, she would have remained hidden. A cornered wolf might have reacted like her. If Boro is for real.. well.. I don't really see why he would have revealed himself at all, I have to say. Rikae at least was under pressure.
Aganzir
12-31-2007, 09:29 AM
I protected Macalaure on Night2, Legate on Night3, and Macalaure again on Night4 - and you are the one who is done for, once my role is revealed.
Since I won't have too much time to post toMorrow, I'll ask this now eventhough we don't know yet for certain who is lying.
Why did Rikae decide to clear Legate? I think tp hadn't posted the tally yet when she posted this.
Is Rikwolf continuing with too-obvious-for-a-wolf things & mentioning her fellow wolf there or did she just choose him because he was the only one who agreed with them?
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 10:06 AM
Is it possible that Boro is the ranger and Farael is a cobbler, wolf or false seer?
No...plain and simple...no.
If Mac and Rikae are Wolves, I think that you would have been their likeliest target last Night.~Sauce
I disagree. I defended Mac two nights ago, and assumed that I had successfully defended him; hence why I dropped off the hints. But, think about it, if I'm dropping off hints that Mac was innocent, and Mac is a wolf, why would the wolves kill me yet? I went way out of my way to throw full support to Mac, and yesterday I definitely didn't want to see him lynched.
I think it was pretty clear to mostly everyone that I had information yesterday, and I came in definitely thinking I was going to be dead. But, I went well out of my way to give Mac a full defense, if the wolves were tipped off that Farael was the seer, they would obviously go after him, if I was fully believing Mac was innocent. Why kill me yesterday than? With the way Farael was attacking Mac yesterday, and the way that I was defending him, perhaps the wolves felt safe that I did not know who the Seer was and hence felt safe trying to kill him. Where then they could properly deal with me the next day. So, why kill me?
I really doubt this is possible but what got me thinking of it was when Boro said that he expected himself to be killed last night and well there was no death so???~morm
That wouldn't make any sense. Since no one has died the last two nights, one of them had to be a successful defense. I believed going into yesterday I had successfully protected Mac, but I believe as I pointed out in the narration, this was not so. The narration makes it clear that something happened to benefit the wolves the wolves on Night 3, the cursed was therefor turned on that night. ,
Night 4 had to have been the successful protection, unless you are going to suggest that there are two cursed?...Or how about this...everyone is cursed, no one will die for at night for the rest of the game...:rolleyes:
Although, I wish I hadn't revealed so hastily, because I can blow holes in Rikaes fraudulant reveal and will do so momentarily. Mark my words, you lynch Farael this village deserves to be devoured by the wolves and I am ashamed to be protecting it.
Aganzir
12-31-2007, 10:09 AM
I will have to vote now, as my friends decided they'll come here to celebrate New Year. I'm not sure if I can be online at deadline (12 am here), but I'll try.
++ Macalaure
Macalaure
12-31-2007, 10:30 AM
I have to leave now, so this is my last chance to change my vote.
While I think that Boro is clearly more likely a cobbler than the ranger, it is still a possibility that is not negligible. I don't feel like doing the work for the wolves, so I won't switch to him.
Rikae is the ranger unless a) Farael is a false seer but one of his dreams happened to be correct b) he is a cobbler and accidentally outed a wolf. Other than that, I have to say that more or less all evidence points towards her speaking the truth. I wonder what it is that Boro promised to come up with.
I know Farael is not the real seer. As a cobbler, he deserves to be lynched. As a false seer I'd feel sorry for him, but he's of no more help than an ordo (me). In fact, he is even less helpful, because as a false seer, he will involuntarily be very confusing for everybody.
I think I will keep my vote where it is. From my point of view, it makes the most sense.
Happy New Year to everyone! :)
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 10:36 AM
I became suspicious of Rikae after Nerwen's lynching yesterday, mostly because of her Day 1 activities.
If you notice, Rikae managed to get into a tustle with Nogrod over his playing style, yet anyone who suspected Nogrod she tried to get suspicion turned towards them...she did the same for anyone who suspected Nerwen. Shasta was after both Nerwen and Nogrod, morm was after Nerwen, and Rikae throughout Day 1 says that both Shasta and morm was acting "jumpy." hmmm...
Or how about the playful attitudes between Mac, Nogrod, and Rikae through Day 1?
Rikae calls out Nogrod for his desire to lynch the "quiets." Nogrod says Mac and Rikae are plotting against him. Rikae points out that Nogrod always seems to accuse her and Mac of plotting together. And when I explained to Rikae what I thought Nogrod's typical thought pattern was she says, she knew but she always gets into an argument with Nogrod over it. In the midst of all this stuff between the three they seem quite jovial about it, using all sorts of smilies and winks. It looks all too much like a group of wolves who are not only willing to lynch eachother to look innocent, but are having a good time laughing about accusing eachother.
Let's look now at Day 3 and Rikae's vote for Nerwen to save Mac. Rikae was trying to save Mac...quite the noble thing to do actually, and to answer why doesn't she vote for an innocent? Since Mac is a wolf, and there is no doubt in me now that he is a wolf, what looks better for Rikae if she's trying to save him? To vote and lynch an innocent, or she could cast a vote to hang another wolf partner of hers who as in trouble. Also. I haven't checked the times but Rikae's last vote turns out to be a waste, as my vote for Nerwen sealed the deal.
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 10:40 AM
While I think that Boro is clearly more likely a cobbler than the ranger~Mac
Why are people trying to say there is a cobbler in this village as if it was a known certain fact? There is no cobbler role that our moderator has listed in the "rules" so why is it being pushed that a cobbler in this village is a known certainty?
Edit:
Also, use your brains and think who the real ranger is. Rikae clearly did not know that as the Ranger she could communicate with Val.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-31-2007, 10:48 AM
Hmm, people are panicking. It's all a bit strange from my, rather comfortable, vantage point as an uninteresting Ordo. There will be innocent lives lost, but that's the way of the game.
There are plenty of villagers left to work out the truths from this debris, once we get some certainties. Certainties come with a lynching tonight. While I can see how both sides can be telling the truth, intuitively I believe Farael and do not think an evil one would have done what he did at this stage in the game, when there is still so much time.
So:
++MACALAURE
The Saucepan Man
12-31-2007, 11:04 AM
Darn! I haven't much time, and I doubt that I will be back before the deadline, what with having guests coming round an' all. So I am going to have to work on the basis of who has come across as most and least credible to me toDay.
++Farael
Rikae
12-31-2007, 11:08 AM
I have been operating, since the end of day 1, on the assumption that Macalaure was innocent and, quite likely, the seer. Yes, I *do* believe I can read him quite well (as several games testify) and I thought that the way he went after Nogrod on Day1 would make him a likely target for the wolves, therefore I protected him on Night2. Being unable to protect him on Night3, I thought it was best to throw some suspicion his way, leading the wolves to consider him lynchable and therefore leave him alone for the night, while, as you see, I tried to deflect suspicion from him at the same time. I also didn't want to draw attention to both of us by accepting his ideas too easily. (Incidentally, it was Boro's "known innocent“, Morm, who began the "Mac & Nogrod wolf-on-wolf“ theorizing that day.)
On day 3, I voted for Aganzir basically based on Mac's hunch (which I thought might be a dream); however, seeing how close the voting was I waited at the keyboard, fully suspecting some sort of evil last-minute voting. When I saw Nerwen's post – which claimed to be voting for Mac to save "whoever“ was ahead, although this was clearly not The Might – the second on her list – with this fake, rushed quality which, due to the devious timing (the very last minute!) I did not buy, I instantly switched my vote. I never saw such an evil-looking post in my life – a last minute vote for a seerish person with absolutely no reason behind it at all. (Save "whoever“? What?)
I protected Mac last night, and I would like to think I was successful. However, the fact that he was so heavily suspected makes me wonder whether the wolves didn't, in fact, count on getting him lynched today and attack someone else last night, finding the cursed. It may be we are dealing with three wolves at the moment, in which case this Boro/Farael plot might just be a bold plot to get rid of the seer and ranger and let the third wolf coast to victory. At any rate, Legate is innocent, and if we lynch Farael today, I can protect him again tonight. The wolves will kill either Mac or me but you will have the other two as known innocents tomorrow and Boro and Farael will be revealed for what they are.
In response to Boro's fabricated argument above - Nogrod, Macalaure & I have quite a bit of WW history together. Nogrod's constant suspicions that we were lovers ended up being a self-fulfilling prophecy in RL - of course we joke about it. As for communicating with the hunter, Boro, adding additional rules where they are convenient for you is a rather obvious ploy, don't you think?
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-31-2007, 11:11 AM
I don't know. It looks whatever the case, there is about 50% chance of wrong choice and the result if we are wrong is the same for both cases - it would go for several days. However, I am more inclined not to jump into attempts but rather stand with trusting Mac. There is this Nerwen-vote thing that I still can't believe to be a work of wolves.
Also. I haven't checked the times but Rikae's last vote turns out to be a waste, as my vote for Nerwen sealed the deal.
Your votes were cast at the same time, so you most probably crossed.
Speaking of that, are you not pushing the saw too hard here? I know this is crucial time, yet getting carried off while argumenting and coming up with invalid arguments does not help, rather it could mean harm to you.
Rikae clearly did not know that as the Ranger she could communicate with Val.
This is also one thing - there is no such a thing mentioned in the rules. Or at least how I read it:
Ranger- Each night the Ranger must select someone to protect from the Werewolves and pm the name to me. If he picks the same person that the Werewolves pick for their kill, that person survives the night. If he protects the Cursed, the Cursed cannot be turned that night. The Ranger cannot protect himself, and he cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.
Hunter- The Hunter can, at any time, pm me with the name of a person he believes to be a Werewolf. The Hunter can change his pick at any time. If the Hunter is lynched during the day or killed at night, the most recent person he chose to hunt will die also, IF a Werewolf.
So it is also possible that the Ranger and the Hunter cannot communicate and you made this stuff up to gain more support from others.
All in all, we will learn after toDay. So how that is - whether Farael is really what he says he is and Mac and Rikae are Wolves or whether Farael came up to set the trap for the real Seer while providing cover for the other Wolves with a bold move (or whether he is a false one or whatever madness) - depends on our votes. Currently, I am inclined to trust Mac & Rikae and am slightly suspicious of Boro (if he's really not trying to hard) and Farael, but there is still time. Will be back later.
EDIT: x-ed with Eomer, Mac and Rikae
The Might
12-31-2007, 11:48 AM
Well, as I have said in the last post, there are certain things that don't really seem to add up very well.
As such I am not really sure what to believe about this revelation. I actually thought what Farael and Boro would really have to gain if this happened. Well, we would indeed lynch an innocent toDay, but they would be clear targets the following days.
So I will trust them for now and vote
++ Macalaure
Of course depending of the outcome of toDay's vote I will probably see if I trusted the good site right now or not.
Wish you all a Happy New Year and may 2008 be the year in which all your wishes come true! (except if you're wolves) :D
Rikae
12-31-2007, 11:56 AM
As such I am not really sure what to believe about this revelation. I actually thought what Farael and Boro would really have to gain if this happened.
They probably think they will lynch the seer toDay, kill the ranger toNight, and only lose one of the possibly 3 remaining wolves and a cobbler for their troubles. That's what.
Rikae
12-31-2007, 12:10 PM
Look, I'm going to be away from the keyboard for some time now (I'm preparing for a trip to Germany - yes, really, make of that what you will...), but I would just like to add one more thought:
What we have here is my word and Mac's vs. Farael & Boro's. It seems to me as though WW has become too easily manipulated by the first person to boldly jump out with a "gifted-revelation" - you don't have to just take any of our words for it. Go back and look over what's happened in this game, and make up your minds based on the evidence. If you still believe Farael and Boro, well, I've failed you and I'm sorry. At the very least, I can take comfort in the fact that I got Boro to reveal his evil intent.
mormegil
12-31-2007, 12:23 PM
It's now lunch time and I've had a bit of time to look over a few things and found something rather interesting.
While I don't want to encourage the Ranger to speak up, It might help us if he mentioned whom he protected the last two nights, should she choose to talk.
As I've said, I've been fairly uncertain but leaning towards trusting Farael until I reread his posts from today and early on this stuck out to me and lends credence to my thought that he is at least a cobbler, but since, as Boro points out, we do not know for certain there is one he could easily be a wolf. My guess is they got the cursed two nights ago and got a bit jumpy about loosing two others. They probably have no idea who the seer is so Farael stepped forward to sacrifice himself in hopes of luring out the seer and ranger. Sadly it has worked in the case of the ranger although who is the real ranger is beyond me. But I'm inclined to trust Boro in this. But in the aforementioned quote it seems as though Farael is trying very subtely to get the ranger and seer to reveal themselves. He, of course, can't mention the seer because he has claimed to be one himself.
I think this is a risky move but my thought is that these wolves are bold enough to risk it.
Hmm, people are panicking. It's all a bit strange from my, rather comfortable, vantage point as an uninteresting Ordo
This is something from Eomer that caught my attention. Why is he comfortable. I'm uncomfortable as all get out right now and confused as heck. It always strikes me the wrong way when somebody so overtly pushes their innocence. I don't want to do anything about it today as we've got bigger fish to fry but I wanted to make mention of it so as to not lose sight of it in the future.
++Farael
Eomer of the Rohirrim
12-31-2007, 01:00 PM
Calm down, Mormegil. The game won't be over if we make a mistake today. If we make a mistake we have ample time to sort it out, and we will gain much truth from it. If we get the decision right first time, then even better.
Overtly pushing my innocence? I hardly think so. I'm just appealing for a bit of composure. It's not armageddon yet.
Well the thing that seems to make most sense to me is this:
++MAC
He isn't Gifted so although we lose an excellent player we don't lose Seer or Ranger. His death helps us understand the role of Farael, and what I don't want under any circumstances is to lose a possible Seer, which Farael is.
Now, half the world is coming to mine tonight so I doubt I'll be able to get back on. So, happy new year!
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 01:54 PM
--Rikae
I guess we'll get to you tomorrow.
Morm if you trust me than you should trust me when I say Farael is the seer and you're making a mistake.
You warned me yesterday:
As it stands I think you are a crazy innocent on a mission that will prove catastrophic if you continue to persue it because, like I said you are innocent, I believe, too so if you kill me it will increase the suspicion around you and only lead to your ultimate demise.
And now I'm going to give you that same warning. Instead of thinking what story is the only one that fits together and makes sense (that is I'm the ranger who successfully defended Farael yesterday, because the wolves thought they were going to kill the seer), you're thinking Farael is trying to drag out the gifteds.
What do you mean Farael had no motive to reveal at this time? He's got two wolves right for us to lynch, and as he rightly figured out he was attacked yesterday, the oppurtune time to reveal was now...today. I don't see anyone else saying Farael isn't the seer, do you?
Weren't you the one the last two days criticising me for not considering a Mac-Nogrod wolf-on-wolf plan? And now that we have Farael saying Mac is a wolf you suddenly are backing away?
I'm sorry Farael, maybe I shouldn't have done my job, maybe it would have been better to let you get killed.
With that said, I'm done focusing on Mac and Rikae. It's clear this is their wolfish plot to get us sidetracked. The cursed has been changed, there's still work to be done, so I'm going to do my job and try to figure out who it was.
mormegil
12-31-2007, 02:13 PM
Morm if you trust me than you should trust me when I say Farael is the seer and you're making a mistake.
You seem to know something I don't and I do trust you more than any of the other three.
BAH! I can't stand this.
--Farael
++Mac
Rikae
12-31-2007, 02:24 PM
Eh, morm? Even if Boro was the ranger, he wouldn't *know* Farael was the seer. He wouldn't even know if Farael was attacked or not. You also are not the only one who doubted Farael's claim - I hope your strange behavior is remembered toMorrow.
Farael
12-31-2007, 02:36 PM
I swear I am laughing at you all... I can't help it! Look at you, going around in circles trying to find "la quinta pata al gato" (that's a saying in Spanish that means a fifth paw to a cat... trying to find something that simply does not exist).
Look, it's very simple.
I suspected Boromir had protected me last night but I did not know it for certain. Since I know he's the ranger, I was on the look-out for any hints that I had been the one protected last night. If Boro chose to reveal, he could do it on his own terms... and I saw no reason to talk much about SPM as it was fairly certain the cursed had been turned. For all I know, he's a wolf too.
Now hey, talk about what you want... hey, for all I care lynch me... you do realize that since Boro said he protected me last night I'm done for this night right?
But if you have an iota of sense left, think about this.
I am the Seer. I made a lot of noise early in the day to get Mac and Rikae to make a mistake. And they sure did! Rikae came out as a "ranger" and yet her claim makes absolutely no sense... there was no need for her to reveal her role so early if she truly was the ranger, as she had not been under much suspicion what so ever.
So are you going to tell me that Rikae is likely the Ranger? who panicked and spoke up when she shouldn't have? She's a far smarter player than that.
As for my playing last day, does ANYONE have ANY doubts I dreamt of Macalaure that night? I was gambling that Boromir would pick up on it and protect me, because I knew that Macalaure would. It was a gamble, but he had positioned himself so wisely beyond suspicion that I felt even if I only managed to reveal him a wolf, it was good enough an effort for this village.
So you choose, I'm dead either way... lynch me now and give the wolves a chance to kill someone they WANT to kill this night? prolly Boro... or lynch one of the wolves now, watch me die tonight as I can't be protected and have some control yourselves over what happens in the next couple days?
Also, you have to give me some credit for making people talk... my biggest fear was that the wolves would decide to cut their losses and accept bandwagons in consecutive days without a fight, which would leave no evidence to find the third wolf... look at it now! There's at least some talk that has been going on and questions will be raised tomorrow.
Now I have to vote and I don't know if I'll be back before the deadline
++Macalaure
Farael
12-31-2007, 02:39 PM
Eh, morm? Even if Boro was the ranger, he wouldn't *know* Farael was the seer. He wouldn't even know if Farael was attacked or not. You also are not the only one who doubted Farael's claim - I hope your strange behavior is remembered toMorrow.
But he would know you are not the ranger, and since you claimed to be it that can only make you a wolf ;) An ordo wuld have raised bloody self-righteous heck since she was an ordo... she wouldn't claim to be the Ranger for no good reason
Come on, you panicked and lost it... it happens.
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 02:45 PM
Ok so what we have is the knowns...
Farael
Rikae
Mac
Me
By knowns, I mean whom is lying and whom isn't will be shown in good time. For the time being I don't think there is a cobbler in this village. I think it was just some story cooked up to try to cast doubt...but I can't be for certain. Anyway, by the end of today, which two are wolves will be known.
So that leaves...
Aganzir
Eomer
Isabell
Kath
Legate
Morm
Sauce
The Might
One of 'em being the last wolf. I said Val's last choice to kill was morm, morm didn't die, therefor at that time he was innocent. However, on that night the cursed was change, so like Farael of Sauce, I can't be for certain whether he was changed. However, based on his posts he looks like an innocent morm, and I'll 'bet the farm' that he is.
Sauce's objective view to this...although it be quite nerve-racking, makes him look innocent. With the wolves ability to PM however, I wouldn't put it past the wolves to be behind the scened discussing how they are going to handle the situation that has come up today. Though, for the time being, Sauce looks innocent.
I wonder though if Agan is right, in that Rikae was the cursed, and one of those on the list have been a wolf all this time...gah this is so frustrating to try to figure out. I have no clue about The Might or Isabell. No one else really looks all bad.
I guess the worst would be Agan...as it appears this particular group of wolves likes to stay close together and throw accusations all around eachother. On the other hand, Agan just comes off as innocent like Sauce and morm.
Or maybe, Legate, who's behavior today just seems off...it's not what I expect from Legate. He's playing off a confused, "I need to sleep on this." And while the ordinary innocents would be confused by this whole situation, I've noticed Sauce, morm, and Kath, have all been discussing it...and admittingly are talking themselves in circles. Nevertheless, they like I would expect from dutiful innocents, are going off what they know and trying to figure it out. Legate avoided the subject and has been subtetly defending the two claiming it would be way too bold for wolves to sacrifice half their team. (To that I will say you must have missed the village where Nogrod sacrificed both his wolf partners and tried to make it through on his own). Too bold? I believed so a couple days ago, but now...? I don't think so.
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 02:46 PM
Eh, morm? Even if Boro was the ranger, he wouldn't *know* Farael was the seer.
Phantom didn't call this game "with a twist" for no reason whatsoever.
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-31-2007, 02:51 PM
Okay, the votes of toDay this far:
Rikae -> Farael (Farael 1)
Macalaure -> Farael (Farael 2)
Boromir88 -> Rikae (Farael 2; Rikae 1)
Aganzir -> Mac (Farael 2; Mac 1; Rikae 1)
Eomer -> Mac (Mac 2; Farael 2; Rikae 1)
SpM -> Farael (Farael 3; Mac 2; Rikae 1)
The Might -> Mac (Mac 3; Farael 3; Rikae 1)
mormegil -> Farael (Farael 4; Mac 3; Rikae 1)
Kath -> Mac (Mac 4; Farael 4; Rikae 1)
Boromir88 -> -Rikae (Mac 4; Farael 4)
mormegil -> -Farael; +Mac (Mac 5; Farael 3)
Farael -> Mac (Mac 6; Farael 3)
Left to vote: myself, Isabellkya and Boro (plus if someone retracts)
I strongly doubt that Farael is going to be lynched unless someone retract or all of us vote Farael (which in the case of Boro is improbable). For this maybe my heart is lighter in this tangled situation, for my personal choice does not seem to matter that much (although who knows?), on the other hand, I strongly hope Farael indeed is the Seer as he claims and the village was not mislead. But whatever, I am going to at least try. We learn the truth whatever the matter, but I will better withstand my conscience if I vote Farael and am wrong than if I voted Mac and was wrong.
So:
++Farael
EDIT: x-ed with Boros
Boromir88
12-31-2007, 02:53 PM
Ok...here's my first triple post in history...
++Mac
I won't be back for the rest of the day...I hope all innocents will not let themselves get dooped by Rikae and Mac.
Rikae is a crafty wolf, who before I have seen escape almost certain lynching to get an innocent Lommy lynched and survive another day. She knew she was going to be as good as dead soon, but managed to survive as long as she could...don't let her do the same thing.
Edit:
And Legate just had to ruin my triple post
Rikae
12-31-2007, 02:55 PM
It appears you two don't know how to quit when you're ahead - you might just talk Farael's neck right into a noose.
Go ahead, keep "explaining" yourselves. ;)
X'd with Boro, Legate & Boro again. Yay!
Legate of Amon Lanc
12-31-2007, 03:00 PM
Hm, if Mac is lynched and innocent I think Boro's post will give enough to analyse toMorrow... anyway, even if Mac is indeed a Wolf, I think it's quite early to talk the remaining (?) Wolf yet, I will wait first what toDay brings. Yet that has to wait till tomorrow (RL). Happy New Year to everyone, and a good start to the new year and my wish is that we find each other here also next year, on the Downs, happily even playing WW ;) , on 31th December. Enjoy everything, whatever your timezone is.
Rikae
12-31-2007, 03:08 PM
Remember, everyone but morm still has a vote left. Take a good look at Boro and Farael's last posts - they are becoming overconfident and incriminating themselves. Boro is inventing twists and rules left and right as it suits him, and Farael tells me "an ordo wouldn't claim to be the ranger". Well, of course not - but a ranger found it worthwhile to speak up lest Farael force the seer to reveal or get him lynched, especially since I could clarify the events of the last two nights.
I've done what I can to help you, now please, use your common sense instead of behaving like sheep. If you listen to Farael today, yes, you will know he's evil tomorrow - but you will have given the wolves an advantage.
Farael
12-31-2007, 03:13 PM
Back for a bit
It appears you two don't know how to quit when you're ahead - you might just talk Farael's neck right into a noose.
Go ahead, keep "explaining" yourselves. ;)
You forget that we are not ahead yet... there's still a wolf out and about and we won't last much longer. Hence why I'm trying to explain to everyone what I was trying to do and what information/reactions I gathered from it.
If I chose to reveal myself now, what good would it do if I took any information with me to the grave?
My suspicions right now (and keep in mind I've told you all I know for sure... this is just a suspicon) lean towards Legate
Legate has been posting a lot today, but saying next to nothing... I think he's positoning himself on purpose to look like a misguided ordo with his vote for me. He knows I'm unlikely to get lynched and he makes this excuse of "feeling better with himself if he's wrong about me than if he's wrong about Mac"
By the way, wouldn't you feel worse for lynching the Seer than for lynching an ordo?
One thing I can agree with Legate however is the following
Werewolving aside, may you all have a wonderful start to 2008!! :D
Isabellkya
12-31-2007, 03:45 PM
I find it easy to want to believe Farael in his claim as the seer, as doing such is a very risky and bold move. If a wolf and false claiming, then we undoubtedly know who to lynch toMorrow.
It is quite hard to really look at the tail end of the votes yesterDay, as they're all mingled together in times.
Ranger- Each night the Ranger must select someone to protect from the Werewolves and pm the name to me. If he picks the same person that the Werewolves pick for their kill, that person survives the night. If he protects the Cursed, the Cursed cannot be turned that night. The Ranger cannot protect himself, and he cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.
Though I am deeply confused because I did protect Mac on Night 3, hence my clue left in my first post. Anyway, yesterday I protected Farael and Night 2 I protected Farael.
Assuming Boro is telling the truth, and the thought that the Cursed Villager turning occured Night 3; then it is quite impossible for the Cursed Villager to be Mac. However it was easy to think that Mac had been going after a future ally, in terms of Nogrod; now it just confirms that we have very bold wolves in this Village.
Like many othes, I find my mind is going about in circular knots.. oh yay.
I'm not liking the seemingly increase in aggressiveness from both Farael and Boro; it could be that they are getting frustrated that people aren't believing them on their word.. but I don't know.
++Mac
At this point, I think it is the best choice to make. We need to lynch one of Farael, Boro, Rikae, and Mac so as to figure out truth from lies. I don't like sacrificing someone just to figure it out, but it must be done. With the other three being possible gifteds, it makes Mac an easier choice.
Aganzir
12-31-2007, 03:56 PM
I'm feeling worse and worse about Legate. And Isabell's today's posts give me also quite a bad feeling... She seems to be a little too reluctant, if you know what I mean. A bit like a wolf who knows her pack will be dead soon.
Happy new year everybody. :)
Rikae
12-31-2007, 03:59 PM
And since you are here, do tell me why you claimed to be the Ranger ;)
Why, to get the real ranger to reveal himself, of course. ;)
Some day they'll go down together;
They'll bury them side by side;
To few it'll be grief--
To the law a relief--
But it's death for Bonnie and Clyde.
~ Bonnie Parker "The Story of Bonnie and Clyde"
Happy New Year to everyone!
the phantom
12-31-2007, 04:10 PM
Hush now.
The day-ending post is on the way.
And Happy New Year!!
(The reason I couldn't be around much is because of a last minute endeavour to secure a lovely New Year's Eve date. And yes, I was successful, thank you very much. ;) )
the phantom
12-31-2007, 04:32 PM
Throughout the day there was no noise or movement from the fog. The voice from the outside was quiet as well. Both knew that a heavy blow would fall, and they waited.
The village does not fully understand what has happened these past two nights, thought the Voice, but it may work to my advantage.
The village does not comprehend the events of the most recent nights, thought the fog, but it could very well be my gain.
And as the two powers watched anxiously, the village debated. They chewed on logic and reason, and more often than not were forced to spit it out, for nothing seemed to make sense. Strange ideas were put forward, and conflicting stories were told, and as the madness continued everyone knew that this day would live forever in the Werewolf lorebooks.
At last the sun was low, and a decision was necessary. Macalaure, the jailkeeper, was judged the most likely to be guilty of lycanthropy. He was ordered to stay seated in his chair in the common room of the Inn, and everyone left to grab a weapon of some sort, one at a time, for they all feared a repeat of Nerwen's performance the day before.
"What, are you all going to rush me? Am I not entitled to a quick, clean death?" asked Mac, fearfully eying The Might's heavy shepherding staff and Kath's large sewing needle.
"I have a sword!" shouted Eomer excitedly. "I could cut your head off!"
"Yeesh... you don't have to be so excited about it," said Might while giving Eomer a sickened look.
"Hey, I'm a grave-digger," retorted Eomer. "I'm morbid."
Eomer walked to a place behind Mac and raised his sword to strike. Mac looked ready to spring up. But Rikae ran forward and came between the executioner and his victim. "No!" she cried, "Not my beloved! Let me do it, if it must be done! Let me do it in my own way!"
Rikae placed her head on Mac's chest and sobbed, while Mac reached out and ran his fingers through her hair. "I will see you again," he whispered to her, dripping tears onto her forehead. "I know," she answered.
From a pouch on her belt, she drew a small knife and cut Mac on his cheek. Mac winced, but did not cry out. Rikae rose, kissed Mac, and fled through the door.
"Should we follow?" asked Kath.
"Nay!" ordered Boromir. "Perhaps she is attempting to draw us away while he escapes."
"He won't escape," said Legate. "He's dead."
The villagers turned towards Mac, and indeed, he appeared to be dead. Eomer examined him. "Yes. He's gone. The knife must've been poisoned."
"But- he didn't change!" shouted SPM.
"Oh yes he did," returned Farael, who stepped forward and grabbed Mac by the hair. "I don't think these are normal," he said, pulling back the jailer's lips to reveal long sharp canines.
Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- Day 2 Hunter victim (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- Day 3 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Macalaure, jailer- Day 4 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
IT IS NOW NIGHT 5. YOU MAY NOT POST.
the phantom
01-01-2008, 03:52 PM
In the early morning hours, the Master of the fog communed with the Werewolves.
"There are still eight villagers left alive, and you are on the verge of being wiped out. You have failed me!"
"No, Lord!" growled the Werewolves. "We may yet have the victory!" said one.
"Silence!" boomed the voice from the mist. The Werewolves fell upon their faces in fear. "How can you say that you will win? You imbeciles have lost three of your fellows already!"
"But Master," objected one, "It wasn't our fault! The villagers have help. They have gifteds. But we fear to attack them. We know something isn't right with them. They have special powers, beyond that of normal gifteds."
"But if you wish to survive, attack them you must," said the fog.
"Help us, Master," begged the Werewolves.
For a time there was silence, and the Werewolves did not stir. At last, the fog made a quiet request. "The Ranger... you know who he is. Lure him here to this place."
**********
"Come back, evil monsters!" yelled Boromir as he chased the Werewolves through the village. "You cannot escape!"
The paws of the Werewolves pounded the ground heavily as they fled in fear towards the land bridge. They had spent the past hour wandering the town in search of the Ranger- the very person they usually tried to avoid. At last they spotted him on the roof of a hut, no doubt guarding the occupant. The two creatures made a great deal of noise and rushed the house, and in answer the Ranger leapt down to do battle.
And then they ran.
The beasts skidded to a halt on the bridge just a few feet shy of the fog bank. The Ranger slowed to a walk and approached them carefully, his sword at the ready. "Now you will pay, foul demons!"
But a dark figure stepped out of the fog and spoke. "Your time in this village is ended."
"Nay!" protested the Ranger. "Not while there is work still to be done!"
"Indeed, there is still work to be done," returned the figure, "But not that requires your talents. You would but inhibit what is to be accomplished."
As he spoke, the vapors extended quickly on either side of the Ranger, hemming him in. The Werewolves slipped out through gaps the Master had left for them, and the gaps closed behind them. Soon, the Ranger was completely encircled.
The Werewolves watched gleefully from the outside as the ring closed, drawing the Ranger in towards the deceitful smokes.
There was a shout, and then all was still. In the quiet the Voice from the outside spoke to the fog.
"It is not right that you have interfered thus. Such things are not to be done in these villages. You have twisted the rules."
"You, of all beings, should not speak so on the matter of twisting," answered the fog.
The Residents-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
The Departed-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- slain by Hunter on Day 2 (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- found out on Day 3 (WEREWOLF)
Macalaure, jailer- outed on Day 4 (WEREWOLF)
Boromir88, assistant to the apprentice to Rikae- taken by fog on Night 5 (RANGER)
IT IS NOW DAY 5. YOU MAY POST.
Aganzir
01-01-2008, 04:06 PM
This may be my last chance to be online for two Days so I've prepared a nice little post. Yes, beforehand, because I thought I can sleep a little longer in the morning if I do that (but decided to post it in the evening instead of going to sleep early), and I was also quite certain the person this post is mostly about wasn't going to die during the Night.
**
What happened in the Night? It doesn't look like the wolves had tried to kill Boro, or was there some weird twist?
**
I guess we're going to lynch Rikae today, but there's another person I'm very worried about, and that is Legate. I have been repeating this quite many times by now, but he isn't being himself, and I hope he is remembered toMorrow even if I don't manage to make it here.
My guess is that Rikae was the cursed (it also makes the most sense that the wolves wanted to kill her on Night 3), and that means Legate has probably been a wolf all these days. Let's see how this looks like.
On Day 1, he said he didn't see anything strange about Nogrod and hoped to see more from him before judging him. He found Nerwen reasonable and suspected morm, who had expressed suspicion towards Nerwen.
Shasta was the one whom he disliked most. I find this interesting; if the wolves felt Shasta was a threat, surely they wanted to get him lynched (especially as innocents considered him suspicious as well) rather than kill him; that always leads to innocents speculating why he was killed.
He also attacked Boro who had been speaking against Nogrod a little.
Legate voted Nogrod only after he had started behaving extremely suspiciously. But Nog wasn't the only suspicious one there... Just look at Legate's posts after Nog's show! Desperately trying to find (bad) reasons to switch to Nog.
Nog, now that was pretty strange what you said. --- Again, if you said it as a joke, whatever, but basing suspicion on it? What puzzles me is that you surely know to do better, Nog!
--- Till recently, I did not have any reason to suspect Nogrod. Yet this? Nog, surely you don't want me to lynch you? I have two strong pros: what you did and also that I would save Nerwen by that. Unless I am mistaken the fate of todays vote is in my hands. Oh my, don't make me do it! Yet I consider Nerwen less suspicious than you. This is ridiculous.
From the beginning of Day 2, Legate defends Mac; surely his and Nog's little dispute wasn't a wolf-on-wolf, his accusations look genuine &c. Mac defends Legate as well, saying his vote was ordoish. To me it makes sense that they tried to make each other look innocent- too much had already been risked by wolf-on-wolf accusations.
Legate is also quick to agree with Mac. On Day 3, ie. the day I after I had voted Mac for the first time, how come Legate gets the feeling that I am a wolf. He also speculates what kind of tactics Agan-wolf might have had. While the tactics he presented are something I doubt I would ever use (and why should they be anything else? They're how he "interprets" the things I've done), the way he presents them should make it easy for others to believe I would have done something like that. But his main goal is to help Mac by getting people suspect me instead. In the same post he
he attacks Saucie, who had an argument with Mac earlier the same day.
By Day 3 it was quite obvious Nerwen would be suspected, so Legate decided to do what was best and start suspecting her, but just a little- not too much to contribute to her lynching but enough that no one could say he was protecting her.
And just look how Mac dismisses the possibility of Legate being a wolf!
If Legate's vote was a wolf-on-wolf vote, it was a rather clumsy one, I think. Too clumsy for Nogrod and Legate - they would have done it better or not at all.
I am saying this to pose a question, whether it could not be possible for the Ranger to somehow pass this information to us? I don't know if revealing himself would be a good move at this time, yet I wanted to bring this forward as an idea.
Ok, this is something I don't like. He's doing nothing but trying to get the Ranger reveal.
I'm very puzzled about why Rikae chose to put Legate on her protect list and thus either prove his innocence or prove he was the cursed. Could it be just because Legate had been the only one to agree with Rikae & Mac, or
was Rikae, knowing she would die soon, gambling and putting her fellow wolf there, hoping that we thought she wouldn't risk that? After seeing how bold our wolves are, I wouldn't put it past her.
Or maybe, Legate, who's behavior today just seems off...it's not what I expect from Legate. He's playing off a confused, "I need to sleep on this." --- Legate avoided the subject and has been subtetly defending the two claiming it would be way too bold for wolves to sacrifice half their team.
Legate has been posting a lot today, but saying next to nothing... I think he's positoning himself on purpose to look like a misguided ordo with his vote for me.
I agree with Boro & Farael on these. Besides, I think Legate is usually more clever than what he has been playing here.
Why are people trying to say there is a cobbler in this village as if it was a known certain fact? There is no cobbler role that our moderator has listed in the "rules" so why is it being pushed that a cobbler in this village is a known certainty?
I think I was the first one to mention the possibility of there being a cobbler... And I was speaking about Legate then, because I thought he was quite cobblerish. :rolleyes: Would it be too bold for a Legwolf to pretend to be a cobbler and thus excuse his odd behaviour? Ok, I know that was far-fetched.
However, I very much doubt now that there would be a cobbler. Wouldn't it be too great an advantage to the baddies, as there are also four wolves and a cursed?
I don't think morm (or Saucie) was the cursed- it's so easy to believe it was Rikae- but I think this idea the little bird gave to Eomer is worth keeping in mind; that the werewolf Valier had chosen didn't die
because of an ordo's lack of participation, that is.
My opinion at the moment is quite much the following:
Innocent
Farael
Kath
Saucie
Eomer
morm
Guilty (I suggest lynching in this order)
Rikae
Legate
Might
Isabell
++ Rikae
Sorry if I don't make too much sense. I'm extremely tired, I must wake up in less than five hours and I'm trying not to panic while thinking what tomorrow will be like after this much sleep deprivation.
I'll try to pop in quickly in the morning but I'm not sure if can make myself wake up even ten minutes earlier because of that.
Aganzir
01-01-2008, 04:23 PM
And isn't it awfully convenient if some of the wolves suspect one another so much that certainly all of them can't be wolves while others are so clearly on one another's side that it's surely too obvious to be wolfish?
Good night and good luck.
Farael
01-01-2008, 04:40 PM
Th
I guess we're going to lynch Rikae today, but there's another person I'm very worried about, and that is Legate. I have been repeating this quite many times by now, but he isn't being himself, and I hope he is remembered toMorrow even if I don't manage to make it here.
Sorry, I can tell you all that Legate is an ordo
Are you all gonna trust me now? :p
mormegil
01-01-2008, 05:01 PM
Sorry, I can tell you all that Legate is an ordo
Are you all gonna trust me now? :p
I am glad that you dreamt of him, I was hoping that you would dream of him or The Might the most so as to help clear things up for me. While I'm glad that Legate is innocent I still find his behavior to be a bit odd and I think Agan and others brought up some good points against him. Agan suggested that he might be a cobbler and I'm inclined to look at him as such.
Anyway It's obvious Rikae will die today but I suggest that we don't make this a lost day so to speak. There is nothing to speak of for incriminating Rikae any further as she took care of that yesterday, though tracking her down may be the hard part. What I am suggesting is that it does appear that we still have two wolves and we should begin finding the final wolf. My top suspects are The Might, Agan, Isabell, and Eomer.
I've stated some reasons for The Might already so I won't repeat them now due to a lack of time. The others I haven't spoken about much as of yet but did make mention of Eomer yesterday and stated that I found his claim to be innocent as rather forced, but I would like a closer look at things later. Agan and Isabell are more of the feeling and the desire not to trust them. Plus, knowing that Legate is innocent makes me wonder why Agan came out so quickly with such a lengthy post today about him. It seems she is trying to get everybody on board quickly so as to divert all eyes from her.
mormegil
01-01-2008, 05:02 PM
++Rikae
--Rikae
++Rikae
Farael
01-01-2008, 05:06 PM
Ok, a few thoughts
Last night's narration explains a lot. I thought that it was possible the wolves were divided somehow and I'd say it's quite likely that Rikae and Macalaure were "lovers"
That also means that Rikae cannot have been the cursed.
This is my last day here, the wolves killed Boromir so that he could not protect me tonight. Even if he claimed he protected me last night, they couldn't know whether he was bluffing or not.
Now, barring a sudden twist that I do not expect (methinks the "twist" was the lovers among the wolves) I will be killed this night.
All we know for sure right now is
Known innocents
Legate (Last night's dream)
Farael (so long, and thanks for all the fish)
Dreamed of, or hunted by Valier before the Cursed was turned
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Completely Unknowns
Aganzir- hangwoman
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
The Might- shephard
Wolf
Rikae : (nananana.... nananana... HEY HEY HEY... good-bye)
A few thoughts on what should be done next.
Of course, Rikae dies today. There's no point in having her around any longer. Then it will be up to you all to find the remaning wolf.
If you think Nerwen was the cursed, then SPM and Mormegil are ordos and we have one of the "original" wolves among the unknowns.
That means that we should be looking for people who have been consistently wolfish from Day 1
If you think that we have found all the "original" wolves and only the turned-cursed is left, SPM and Morm are not in the clear and we have to look for people who may have changed their playing style slightly after the night the cursed was turned.
I'm not sure which scenario is the most likely.
On one hand, SPM has been rather clueless and it's surprising to see him alive for so long, he's usually an early kill.
However, it's quite possible that, due to SPM's cluelesness the wolves thought there were other, higher priority targets.
SPM will be my dream tonight, as Phantom said he'd let me know even if I am to be killed by the wolves... so I will know his role, but it's unlikely you will:D
Right now though I'm leaning towards being guilty, her attack on [B]Legate seems weak (even if I DID dream of Legate her points are mostly circumstantial)
This quote really makes me wonder
What happened in the Night? It doesn't look like the wolves had tried to kill Boro, or was there some weird twist?
Why talk about some far-fetched twist when it's obvious the wolves got rid of the Ranger so they could get to me without risking a ranger save if Boro had bluffed yesterDay about protecting me the night before?
Also, don't you all agree that Rikae and Macalaure are werewolf-lovers? That'd explain why Mac AND Rikae helped getting rid of Nogrod and Nerwen respectively. We are not dealing with some super-bold wolves... we are dealing with furry traitors of their own kin (doubly so, once for wolves, once for lovers)
So, unlike Morm who posted when I was still writing this post (I checked the thread before submitting to avoid a massive x-posting :P) I think that Aganzir's points are not all that strong.
KEEP IN MIND I DID NOT DREAM OF HER
Isabellkya
01-01-2008, 05:35 PM
++ Rikae
For obvious reasons. oohh that is pretty interesting, if Mac and Rikae as Wolf lovers had to ret rid of the rest of their team to grab a victory for themselves. That is twisty in deed.
The tactics of the wolves during the night are pretty straight forward; they killed the Ranger so they could make a clean kill of the Seer toNight. I think the only thing which could be found strange is that the wolves' master of fog made the kill; rather than them.
....
I'll be back later to post more, but my grandparents are coming over for dinner in roughly 1.5 hours and I've got to start cooking.
Rikae
01-01-2008, 06:18 PM
You didn't really think TP would only add twists helpful to the villiage, did you? :D
You know, now that my apprentice, her assistant, and my competitor are gone, you are soon going to find yourself without a herbalist. How do you plan to medicate yourselves so you can sleep at night, knowing the wolves will eat you one by one?
I also don't know what you're going to do when your shoes wear out...
See you soon, Macalaure....
EDIT: I should say "you don't really think TP would", because, after all, you don't know the twist I speak of yet. You will soon enough, though!
Rikae
01-01-2008, 06:27 PM
Oh, yeah - I told you Legate was innocent, didn't I? :p
I would keep an eye on that Aganzir if I were you.
++Aganzir
Farael
01-01-2008, 06:36 PM
A bit of advice... it's pointless to read much into what Rikae says... everything could be a doubletripleoctuple bluff so might as well ignore her.
The Saucepan Man
01-01-2008, 06:56 PM
Ahem! Beg pardon, Farael. Let me make amends.
++Rikae
I'm not sure how helpful it is, but here is yesterDay's voting record:
Rikae: ++Farael (Farael 1)
Mac: ++Farael (Farael 2)
Boro: ++Rikae (Farael 2, Rikae 1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Farael 2, Rikae 1, Mac 1)
Eomer: ++Mac (Farael 2, Rikae 1, Mac 2)
SpM: ++Farael (Farael 3, Rikae 1, Mac 2)
The Might: ++Mac (Farael 3, Rikae 1, Mac 3)
Morm: ++Farael (Farael 4, Rikae 1, Mac 3)
Kath: ++Mac (Farael 4, Rikae 1, Mac 4)
Boro: --Rikae (Farael 4, Mac 4)
Morm: --Farael, ++Mac (Farael 3, Mac 5)
Farael: ++Mac (Farael 3, Mac 6)
Legate: ++Farael (Farael 4, Mac 6)
Boro: ++Mac (Farael 4, Mac 7)
Isabellkya: ++Mac (Farael 4, Mac 8)
So far, we have caught the following Wolves:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mac
Rikae
We know (I think) that the Cursed was turned on Night 3.
Obviousy, Nogrod cannot have been the Cursed and neither can Mac, since Boro chose to protect him on Night 3. I don’t believe that Nerwen was the Cursed, since she acted pretty consistently (and was suspected pretty consistently for it) from the off. It is possible that Rikae too was a Wolf from the start, given Nog’s funny vote for her on Day 1. However, I also find it quite plausible that Rikae was the Cursed. Given her claimed ability to spot a Wolfish Mac, I can well imagine him choosing to hunt her.
This, I think, might be a good issue to discuss toDay as, depending on whether we have an original Wolf or an ex-Cursed left on our hands after toDay, our search will have a different focus. Farael makes the point well above.
My current thoughts are as follows:
Legate: Known innocent. Possible Cobbler, but doubtful I think.
Mormegil: If Morm is a Wolf, then he is the ex-Cursed. On Day 3, he made a strong case against, and voted for, Nerwen, which speaks in his favour. I don‘t like the way his votes went yesterDay, however. Perhaps his first instinct was to try to save his packmate, but he thought better of it when he saw the writing on the wall.
Aganzir: With Legate cleared, if there was a second Wolfish vote for Nogrod on Day 1, it must have been Aganzir’s. She then accused, and consistently voted for, Mac. Given all the Wolf-on-Wolf votes there have been, how likely is it that these were too? That said, her Day 2 vote for him was a pretty safe one for a ‘Wolf-on-Wolf’, she had little leeway on Day 3, and pretty much no option yesterDay. I am therefore not at all sure that her voting record clears her, and I don’t like the way that she came in toDay with such a strong case against Legate. I share others’ disquiet about her. Rikae’s vote for her could go either way, so I regard it as pretty meaningless.
Eomer: The way that he voted for Nerwen consistently until Day 3, the Day that she was lynched, might suggest that he was the Cursed one. Like morm, I don’t like the way that he was acting so nonchalantly yesterDay. It's conceivable that he is a Wolf.
Isabellkya: She consistently voted for Nerwen, a Wolf in danger throughout her career in this village, which speaks in her favour. However, she voted last for Mac yesterDay, at a time when his fate was pretty much sealed. It was a convenient time for the last Wolf to make sure that she was on the ‘right’ bandwaggon.
Kath: Like Isabellkya, she consistently voted for Nerwen and her vote for Mac yesterDay came at quite a pivotal moment. Of all the unknowns, I see her as the least Wolfish.
The Might: He is the only unknown never to have voted for a known Wolf before yesterDay, and I still don’t like those ‘throwaway’ votes for Eomer. However, his vote for Mac did come at a fairly pivotal time.
So, at present, I would rate Aganzir as the most suspicious and (Legate aside) Kath as the least. The others fall in between.
Rikae
01-01-2008, 07:23 PM
A bit of advice... it's pointless to read much into what Rikae says... everything could be a doubletripleoctuple bluff so might as well ignore her.
The question is, am I the sort of man who would put the poison into my own cup, or my enemy's?
Nothing is meaningless, and I don't intend to lie from this point on.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."
:)
Rikae
01-01-2008, 07:31 PM
Ahem! Beg pardon, Farael. Let me make amends.
++Rikae
You say that as though there was a choice. You know, your vote of yesterDay was quite wolfish indeed, SPaM...
Farael
01-01-2008, 07:41 PM
The question is, am I the sort of man who would put the poison into my own cup, or my enemy's?
Nothing is meaningless, and I don't intend to lie from this point on.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."
:)
You're a guy? :eek:
Now looking at yesterday's voting record, there are two things that come to my attention.
I had four votes, two by Mac and Rikae which don't tell us much. Then we have Legate with some EXTREMELY flawed logic... but proven an ordo
and SPM
Now, he votes for me at quite a pivotal time, as it put me in the lead. Perhaps he was hoping that some innocents would see the tally, notice that I'm in the lead and decide to vote for me?
He has an awful lot of explaining to do over that vote.
Conversely, The Might voted Mac to get a tie with me (which puts him on the lead as he was the "last one" to get there). If he was a wolf, why act so quick to kill one of their own? he could've stayed put and gauged the village's reaction to SPM's vote.
Of course, they can't both be wolves (simple math, there's only one unknown wolf left). If I had to choose one of the pair, I'd say SPM's vote looks AWFUL.
I don't think right now that SPM should be a top suspect this day, but looking at the voting record, his vote for me looks pretty bad.
Either way, i'll find out this night what SPM may be... it's a throwaway dream, but it's not like I'd be able to share it with y'all
Also, why does everyone keep on pushing the idea of a cobbler?
And before I forget
++SPM
Oh, yeah... right.
--SPM
++Rikae
Disclaimer: No, I am not leaving seer hints about SPM with that vote, just keeping and old vendetta alive :D
Rikae
01-01-2008, 07:44 PM
However, I also find it quite plausible that Rikae was the Cursed. Given her claimed ability to spot a Wolfish Mac, I can well imagine him choosing to hunt her.
I truly can always spot a wolfish Mac, indeed I can, for I am very clever. Mac is very clever, too- cleverer than you know.
Farael, m'dear - surely you realise that when you are still alive tomorrow, the village will start to wonder...
;)
Rikae
01-01-2008, 07:48 PM
You're a guy? :eek:
Last I checked, no - but why twist the quote more than needed?
Either way, i'll find out this night what SPM may be... it's a throwaway dream, but it's not like I'd be able to share it with y'all
If I were you, Farael, and you were the seer, I wouldn't do that. Take it from me - knowing something the villiage doesn't after you're dead is incredibly frustrating!
Also, why does everyone keep on pushing the idea of a cobbler?
Because there is a cobbler. I can promise you that! :D
The Saucepan Man
01-01-2008, 07:56 PM
He has an awful lot of explaining to do over that vote.I have no explaining to do over that vote, as I explained it when I cast it. I voted for who seemed least credible to me at the time. I was wrong.
Give it up, Rikae. no one's going to be listening to you. :rolleyes: :p
Rikae
01-01-2008, 08:38 PM
I have no explaining to do over that vote, as I explained it when I cast it. I voted for who seemed least credible to me at the time. I was wrong.
Give it up, Rikae. no one's going to be listening to you. :rolleyes: :p
Talking to the known baddie, are we, SPaM? Tsk tsk. That could get you in trouble, by and by.
And why should I stop? I'm having too much fun. :p
Aganzir
01-01-2008, 09:45 PM
Plus, knowing that Legate is innocent makes me wonder why Agan came out so quickly with such a lengthy post today about him. It seems she is trying to get everybody on board quickly so as to divert all eyes from her.
Because I wasn't sure if I manage to post later and suspect Legate. That simple.
Why talk about some far-fetched twist when it's obvious the wolves got rid of the Ranger so they could get to me without risking a ranger save if Boro had bluffed yesterDay about protecting me the night before?
I skimmed the narration and was puzzled by this
"It is not right that you have interfered thus. Such things are not to be done in these villages. You have twisted the rules."
"You, of all beings, should not speak so on the matter of twisting," answered the fog.
Farael, if you dream of a player with a twist, will you know it? I just can't believe Legate is an ordo.
Farael
01-02-2008, 01:48 AM
Farael, if you dream of a player with a twist, will you know it? I just can't believe Legate is an ordo.
Grasping for straws here? the "bad" fog twisted the rules by killing the Ranger which is not allowed as they should not actively interfere
The "good" fog did the "twist" which methinks is a pair of lovers among the wolves.
I could be wrong, but I'm sure not liking your logic here.
Worst case scenario, Legate is a cobbler-like figure... doesn't matter, as long as he's not a werewolf (and I would've seen him thus if he were) he counts as an ordo and should NOT be lynched. Simple as that
You are digging your own grave!!
The Might
01-02-2008, 05:51 AM
Well, seems I was right about Mac.
And as Rikae is clearly a wolf, the question only remains who is the other one...
And right now, I'm not so certain about that, and since it's anyway pretty clear who will get lynched toDay I'm not going to think too much about it yet.
So...
++ Rikae
Farael
01-02-2008, 06:20 AM
Well, seems I was right about Mac.
And as Rikae is clearly a wolf, the question only remains who is the other one...
And right now, I'm not so certain about that, and since it's anyway pretty clear who will get lynched toDay I'm not going to think too much about it yet.
So...
++ Rikae
Errr Might... wouldn't it make more sense to start working on the next suspect NOW? I mean, right now the villagers have the advantage, but it's not sure that we'll win. We have an edge right now buti f we let it slip out of our grasp the last wolf will take us appart one by one.
Man, it's almost like you do it on purpose to be suspected...
Eomer of the Rohirrim
01-02-2008, 07:11 AM
Nonchalant? :rolleyes: What a non-reason. It worked out, didn't it? There is and was no reason that yesterday's lynching wouldn't work out. As for me switching my vote from Nerwen, I have already explained: if Nerwen had played it sensibly, there was no way I could have cast a deciding vote for her. It would have been a waste. The way things turned out was bizarre and totally unpredictable.
Saucepan Man and Mormegil are the probable innocents. The fate of the cursed villager, however, ensures that we can't trust them. They both look a bit iffy yesterday, after all.
I must agree with Farael here: Saucepan's reasoning for his vote looks bad. I would have expected such a common-sense and practical player such as he to vote for Macalaure, who was never going to be a Seer, over Farael. Mormegil chose the same way, but was persuaded in the end to switch his vote to Mac. Such indecisiveness looks slightly dodgy, but I am more inclined to believe in the goodness of his intentions.
Farael, Rikae, and Legate we know about. After these Mormegil is, to me, the most innocent looking.
I'm still suspicious of the Might, and his post today does nothing to ease those worries. The 3 girls are difficult to read, but I will be analysing them today.
++RIKAE
Legate of Amon Lanc
01-02-2008, 07:28 AM
Okay, first things first. It is now obvious whom to vote,
++Rikae
And now on other stuff. There is just one Wolf left unless there is another twist in the fog. I don't think there is much point in discussing whether there were lovers or anything among the Wolves, unless it could in any way help us by deciphering people's votes. Anyway, surprisingly I am now leaning towards considering Aganzir the last wolf, for my suspicions earlier and also for her very eager case against me. It is obvious she had little time and wanted to share her ideas with us, so nothing that strange on how and when she posted it, yet, it only supports my image of her. I am aware however, that I was fooled by Mac and wrong about Boro, so I am going to revise everything. The more that now, as known innocent, it is probable that if we don't lynch the remaining Wolf toMorrow, I will be dead the Night after that.
I suggest we stay focused and the best thing to do is now to look at everyone's behavior throughout the Days, there is not that many of us anyway. Basically, right now, like I said, I am inclined to suspect Aganzir the most, because of her continuous case against me, also labeling me as cobbler and similar stuff, to which she could have backed off at the moment her case against me was ruined by Farael's revelation of my innocence.
I don't know whether it is wise to look at what Rikae says at all, because as someone said here, her words can be interpreted in either way, so if she says something is black, it may be she is lying and it is white, or that she counts with that we will think she is lying and it is indeed black, or that she counts with that we think she counts with that we will think she is lying and it is white, and so on.
Concerning SpM, I was suspicious of him in the past, so there is also the possibility of him being a Wolf. I don't necessarily think, however, yesterDay says anything particular about him, because I also voted Farael and morm originally did, too. I would rather be careful here and not use this as argument, as even ordo can be confused or persuaded.
TM I will have to review, for now I will say there are higher suspects for me at this time, but as I said, the best to look through everyone.
morm is also a person whom I'd definitely have to look at deeper, it is worth mentioning that his retraction yesterDay most probably ruined the possibility of Mac to be saved, however, since there was still Farael and Boro left to vote, and they would quite probably not vote for Farael, it might be that a wolf-morm could calculate it's better to save his neck this way. Nevertheless, by that time I already said I am inclined to support Mac more, so there was still to be presumed a vote for Farael. So, who knows.
Isabell I don't have much clear idea about, her vote yesterDay definitely did not matter any more so she could be even a wolf who avoided contributing to lynch her packmate.
Kath and Eomer now made me worried because I realised I hardly formed any clear opinion on them. Maybe it's for the best, I can start with slate clean. So, I guess it's lucky we have that much time now, hopefully I will find the inner strength to spend some of this time by going through other people's posts in the past. See you later.
EDIT: x-ed with Eomer
Rikae
01-02-2008, 07:32 AM
You think you have an edge now, but you're done for.
Well, farewell, and may your deaths be gruesome. How appropriate it turned out -today at 5 pm I go to Macalaure, in this world and the non-internet one. :)
mormegil
01-02-2008, 08:46 AM
Worst case scenario, Legate is a cobbler-like figure... doesn't matter, as long as he's not a werewolf (and I would've seen him thus if he were) he counts as an ordo and should NOT be lynched. Simple as that
I agree with you Farael in that he should not be lynched but I also agree in that if we can determine, or guesstimate that he is a cobbler then we should not really give heed to him as well. He does count as an innocent in the overall so not lynching him is a good idea but I for one will not be persuaded by him as I think what he says might be tainted. That is why I want to consider him the cobbler, if there is such a role which Rikae seems to promise us there is. :rolleyes:.
I am wondering if wolf Agan is using this as a guise to further separate our thoughts from her.
I still think The Might looks awfully suspicious and I agree that his post today doesn't help allay my fears of him. I have done my analysis of him and my vote is likely going for him tomorrow, unless something drastic happens.
The Might
01-02-2008, 10:48 AM
For me?
I just said that I'm going to have to wait until I take a better look at the others and see what is posted toDay first.
And anyway, at this point besides Eomer whom I have suspected from earlier on, I really don't have others that seem wolvish.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
01-02-2008, 11:01 AM
Isabell's and Kath's explanations for their votes yesterday were practically identical to mine, although I am always aware that sensible wolves will do sensible things.
Aganzir's attack on Legate today doesn't strike me as too wolvish. Looking at it now it seems dogmatic of her, and I'm just not inclined to believe a wolf would put all eggs in one basket at this stage. It would make her look too bad if Farael had not dreamed of Legate, and we lynched Legate on the next day.
The Might is still as creepy as ever and is probably my main suspect, but if it's not him I think the last wolf is either Isabell or Kath. They both have the appearance of a sensible wolf.
Excuse me but who said Mac and Rikae are wolf lovers? If that were true Rik would've gone down with Mac. Could be a twist I suppose but it would be an odd one.
At least we know for pretty much definite that Farael is the Seer now. The role revelations of both Mac and Boro don't leave much doubt about that! And so:
++RIKAE
I may not be able to get back on toDay (it's been hard getting the blasted net to work at all, unless you have the time to sit there and wait half an hour for a page to load) but I will try.
Farael
01-02-2008, 02:22 PM
I still think The Might looks awfully suspicious and I agree that his post today doesn't help allay my fears of him. I have done my analysis of him and my vote is likely going for him tomorrow, unless something drastic happens.
I'm not sure that The Might is a good choice for a lynch. He's been consistently clueless but last time around he was even MORE clueless than in this game and turned out to be an ordo.
Let's make a pretty lil' list 'cos there's two hours left.
Aganzir- Not looking so great. Specially her insistance on Legate. Hey, it's all good that you think he may be a cobbler, but I Just told you he's not a wolf... start looking elsewhere!
Eomer of the Rohirrim- Gotta hand it to him, he's very calm and fairly reasonable. So far no red flags here.
Farael- What a wonderful guy. Insightful, witty and so darn good looking :p
Isabellkya- I'm not sure I have much to say about her... hasn't really participated a whole lot, has she?
Kath- And the same could be said about Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc- We know he's an ordo
mormegil- I really do trust him the most right now. He's been consistently mormegil-like, even with his vote for me and his retraction
Rikae- nananana... nananana... HEY HEY HEY...good-bye
The Might- Ugh, if I was the Hunter and could kill ordos, I'd hunt him just to clear the air... but I don't think he's the last wolf.
The Saucepan Man- I will find out his role toNIght :D... but I am unsure of whether he may be wolfish or not.
I believe it is likely the last wolf may be either Aganzir, Isabellyka or Kath. After that I'd distrust SPM and Might on that order.
Finaly, Eomer and Morm
Of course, it's up to y'all to find the last furry one... hopefuly next Day you'll be able to find him and finish him off.
I don't know if I'll be back, so I wish you the best of lucks... and [B}SPM[/B] I'll be seeing you in my dreams!! :p
mormegil
01-02-2008, 02:29 PM
Here is my analysis of Eomer. It might be a bit rushed as I'm on limited time and he has a fair amount of posts but we shall see.
Post 112 is an in character post not much content overall.
Post 115 he brings up some moderate suspicion of Nerwen.
Post 134 gives some advice that regarding plots some wolves use against quiet victims and get the bandwagon rolling. He doesn't think it wise to 'stick to your guns' this early.
Post 180 states he is not happy about Nogrod getting lynched and thinks it should be Nerwen and votes Nerwen.
Post 215 he explains his vote from the day before. It seems like a fairly reasonable explanation but I could see it as a fairly prepared from the night before explanation. He tries to convince us that his vote makes him look more innocent and I can see it both ways.
Post 217 He points out some things Shasta said in regards to Nogrod intimating that the wolves killed him because they thought him to be the seer. Not a lot to make of this as knowing Nogrod was a wolf makes it easy to pick out seer hints from the day before and assume that is why he was killed. Nothing too bad here.
Post 218 Comes out and states what he intimated in the previous post and believes that, if it wasn't for seer hints, he can't figure out why they killed him.
Post 236 Here are some interesting quotes. Look back on this post, he is either brilliant at spotting wolves or is one himself because the only three he really suspects are three known wolves. My guess is that the remaining wolves saw that only they were suspected and seer or not they should be done with him at that point and went after him at night but he was not the seer but rather an intelligent, if cursed, villager and became one of them.
Macalaure: The Nogrod thing bothers me, and if Mac is innocent I along with many others will feel embarrassed at suspecting the man who did more than anything to bring the foul wolf down; but... he's creepy, that jailer.
Nerwen: Still unsure. SPM made good point about wolf-Nerwen probably keeping Shasta alive. She seems a bit wrong to me, but I'm leaning towards thinking she's innocent.
Rikae: Exactly like Mac -- seems creepy to me. Not sure why but I never trust her.
Post 256 not a lot in there really. Plus I"m getting shorter on time
Post 264 votes Nerwen again, who was a wolf.
Post 293 is rather interesting in light of my new theory and it fits with Eomer's typical playing style. He is the one that points out we may have a new wolf on our hands and seems to piece the Valier thing together. A fairly clever thing to do for an innocent or a wolf but very bold if you were the cursed turned the night before because who would suspect that person of bringing it up? He says something about a little bird giving him an idea???
Post 314 states he doesn't understand what Boro means when he suddenly switched on considering me innocent because Valier was the hunter and he could talk to her and the hunter only would kill a wolf. Now this post is fine because Boro hadn't explained himself and I was confused too.
Post 321 Now Farael is on his list as well as the Might. Mac has dropped off but Rikae stayed. You obviously don't want to drop your suspicion all together of your fellow wolves but he is adding others and dropped one of the two wolves.
Post 347 he somewhat defends Mac by stating he doesn't understand why all this uncertainty revolves around him.
I really am out of time now but I remember it was around this day that Eomer began sticking out to me and I noticed some things that seem odd to me. Of course, my theory is that he was turned on the second night and we know that he wasn't protected. It seems to fit that the wolves, obviously, are after the seer first and foremost and with labelling the 3 remaining wolves as suspicious it would have screamed SEER to them. It is probable that they attacked him based upon that.
I'm fairly confident that either The Might or Eomer is the remaining wolf
The Saucepan Man
01-02-2008, 02:54 PM
I suppose that it's understandable that it has been quite quiet toDay, given that our choice of lynch victim is obvious. Still, it would have been nice to hear a bit more from everyone, particularly as we are most unlikely to have a trusted Farael to bounce ideas off toMorrow. It's a shame that more have not ventured an opinion on whether the last Wolf is an original or the Cursed since, outlining our thoughts in this regard could well help us to find him or her.
Some thoughts on what has been said toDay.
Because I wasn't sure if I manage to post later and suspect Legate. That simple.Well, coming up with such a detailed analysis so early on did look rather sinister, but I can see merit in your explanation. My main problem is that you paid scant attention to any other possibility. Rather than considering other possible Wolves, you concentrated on Legate almost exclusively. And, even since Farael revealed him to be no Wolf, you have not really offered any other thoughts, save to suggest that Legate might be a Cobbler. Even if you are right, there is (as both Farael and morm pointed out) little sense in us lynching someone who is not a Wolf, as he numbers among the innocents for the purposes of victory.
Well, seems I was right about Mac.You seem a little too eager there to claim your share of the credit for Mac's demise for my liking, young Might. And you seem rather reluctant to say much else toDay. It helps us little for you to merely sit by the sideline saying that you will look at what happens toDay and think about it toMorrow.
I just said that I'm going to have to wait until I take a better look at the others and see what is posted toDay first.That's all very well for you, but it hardly helps us assess you, does it? Save to draw conclusions as to your possible reason for remaining relatively quiet toDay. Which ain't doing you any favours, to my mind.
Nonchalant? What a non-reason. It worked out, didn't it?Yes, and neither of the choices available to us yesterDay was ever going to be fatal. But that didn't stop most of us agonising over trying to make the right decision. The wrong one would have been a setback. Your nonchalance could be seen as an attempt to disguise a Wolfish annoyance over the revelation of your fellows.
I must agree with Farael here: Saucepan's reasoning for his vote looks bad. I would have expected such a common-sense and practical player such as he to vote for Macalaure, who was never going to be a Seer, over Farael. I thought it likely that a Seerish Farael would be killed overNight, as, if Boro was the Ranger, he most probably had saved him the Night before (and the Wolves would have known that). I was, in any event, more focussed on trying to decide which was the Wolf, and I concluded that Farael looked the more Wolfish. Rightly or wrongly, I set a lot of store by the voting record, and Farael's voting record looked a lot worse than Mac's to me.
Given what has happened toDay, the Might is now nudging equal to Aganzir in my suspicions.
The Saucepan Man
01-02-2008, 03:01 PM
... and SPM I'll be seeing you in my dreams!! :pSweet dreams, Farael. :cool: :D
Farael
01-02-2008, 03:28 PM
There's something that doesn't add up. The wolves know whom they attacked the night before I revealed. The wolves would know then whether BOromir was blufing about having protected me the night before.
If he had protected me, the wolves would've attacked me a second night straight which would've meant that Boro would've been unable to protect me anyway.
So it begs the question, Why am I still alive?
My only thought is that Boro did not protect me the night before... which in turn means the wolves did not attack me either and so they took out Boro last night 'cos he WAS able to protect me.
But if Boro did not protect me, and yet there was no death that previous night... who was saved?
I looked through Boro's posts last day but I could not find any information there... only thing that comes to mind is that if Valier and him were not able to communicate, perhaps that the wolves attacked Mormegil and he protected him that night.
Of course, he couldn't say that, as he had to hope to keep up the bluff and perhaps the wolves would've attacked me and he would've protected me.
So right now, I'm thinking Mormegil is almost certainly an ordo!
Edit: I used some awful grammar there... not even grammar, it was just poor English.
Edit 2: Typo.... seems my brain's off today.
Eomer of the Rohirrim
01-02-2008, 03:28 PM
Morm, there's really not a lot I can say about your points against me. They are pretty interesting. All I can reply with is that the pieces fit, but the picture is wrong. You've made me pleased with myself for my wolf-spotting prowess. ;) But the wolves never attacked me. Actually, at that point in the game I could not have dreamt of all those wolves; and the wolves weren't too interested in me because I never made a strong case against one of them. Even my Nerwen votes were not especially reasonable, rather lucky. The wolves obviously picked Farael as the Seer before me, and they picked right.
By the way, the "little bird" thing was not a devious reference to a 'twist'; rather, it was a reference to my experienced Werewolfing-girlfriend who supplies me with all my brilliant points and arguments. :D
Eomer of the Rohirrim
01-02-2008, 03:57 PM
Is there still confusion over the narratives? I just saw the Night 4 narrative now, because it had been added.
Macalaure was the cursed villager.
Night 2: Shasta killed.
Night 3: Ranger protected Macalaure (know this by process of elimation -- see below)
Night 4: Macalaure attacked and turned (see narrative).
Night 5: Boromir killed.
This explains all ambiguities. Boromir protected Macalaure on Night 3; then someone else on Night 4, possibly Farael; but the wolves couldn't be sure and killed Boromir instead.
If the cursed was turned on Night 4 (which we do, because of the narrative) then Mac had to be innocent on Night 3 (because of the successful Ranger protection).
Farael
01-02-2008, 04:03 PM
Nice try Eomer, but you forgot to take into account that I dreamt of macalaure the ngiht BEFORE That, meaning the night you say he was protected. So he was already a wolf the first night there was no kill
Edit: And it seems I posted after the deadline for a couple minutes, sorry
the phantom
01-02-2008, 04:15 PM
There was no question who would die. Rikae made no attempt to defend herself and allowed herself to be bound to a post in the middle of the square.
"Why did you even show up?" asked Isabellkya.
"I am prepared to meet death," answered Rikae. "Plus, I wanted to have a bit of fun."
And fun she had. Throughout the day the debate was interupted by her declarations. Was she telling the truth, lying, or mixing the two together?
"I think we should just ignore her," said SPM.
But at last they could ignore her no longer. It was near sundown, and the deed had to be done.
"Now can I use my sword?" asked Eomer. "I didn't get to yesterday!"
"Sure," said Farael.
"You'll never win!" screamed Rikae. "You're all doomed! DOOMED!!"
*thunk*
The Residents-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
The Departed-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- slain by Hunter on Day 2 (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- found out on Day 3 (WEREWOLF)
Macalaure, jailer- outed on Day 4 (WEREWOLF)
Boromir88, assistant to the apprentice to Rikae- taken by fog on Night 5 (RANGER)
Rikae, midwife/wise-woman- executed on Day 5 (WEREWOLF)
IT IS NOW NIGHT 6. YOU MAY NOT POST
the phantom
01-03-2008, 03:52 PM
"Master, why will you not permit me to slay the Seer? We both know-"
"I have told you NO already!" said the fog to the last Werewolf. "The Seer knows it is time. He will come to us."
"But if he doesn't?"
"In that case, I will allow you to seek him out, and have a bit of fun with him."
**********
Farael sat on the edge of his bed, contemplating the past few days. He had been successful- almost too successful to be believed. The village had gained a significant leg-up on the Werewolves, despite there being a total of five of them.
But perhaps things would change now. For he, the last of the gifteds, was about to leave the village behind and force the residents to fend for themselves. But then surely they can catch one Werewolf he thought. And yet he couldn't shake the thought that this final Werewolf would not be easily discovered.
At last Farael stood up and made ready to leave. He packed his most precious belongings, including his books on Seer methods and history, and walked out into the night.
As soon as he left his home, he heard it- the Voice from the outside. It had somehow found a way past the fog to speak to him. "Go not forth!" it whispered desperately into his ear. "The fog awaits you! It cannot touch you within your home! Stay!"
But Farael dismissed the voice and continued on his way, away from the land bridge and towards the middle of the lake. Soon he found himself on the very bank where Nogrod had met his fate. Farael pushed into the water the boat that Nogrod had attempted his escape in, and then lowered himself into the boat and began to paddle.
As the distance between himself and the shore increased, he saw the final Werewolf emerge from the shadows of a shack and pad out onto a rock that jutted into the lake.
"My Master is expecting you!" it snarled.
"I know," answered Farael.
"Soon evil will stand alone in this village! The innocent stand no chance now!" taunted the Werewolf.
And with the gift of sight that was granted to him, Farael answered, "They never did. And yet that is not an evil."
"What madness do you speak?!" yelled the Werewolf, confused and angry.
But Farael did not answer as his boat disappeared into the fog.
The Werewolf heard a muffled splash, and then the fog spoke with a great voice.
"The way is cleared for you now. The village is yours for the taking. Leave none alive!"
As the Werewolf made its way back to its home, the Voice spoke to the Master of the fog. "This is no victory for you, so do not claim one. You have been overly cruel, and your spirit is tainted for it."
"How can one such as you chide another for cruelty," answered the fog. "Is cruelty not an art that you have perfected?"
The Residents-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
The Departed-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- slain by Hunter on Day 2 (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- found out on Day 3 (WEREWOLF)
Macalaure, jailer- outed on Day 4 (WEREWOLF)
Boromir88, assistant to the apprentice to Rikae- taken by fog on Night 5 (RANGER)
Rikae, midwife/wise-woman- executed on Day 5 (WEREWOLF)
Farael, conspiracy theorist- surrendered to fog on Night 6 (SEER)
ANNOUNCEMENT: From this point on, Roles will not be revealed upon death.
IT IS NOW DAY 6. YOU MAY POST.
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