Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil [Archive] - Page 2

Aganzir

02-28-2008, 02:13 PM

The beggars weren't terrified by sally's fate at all, quite the contrary – among the other nasty things Mac did today, he even realised that there was also a positive side to sally's death. Now, he thought, he and Menel could finally play snow war for hours on end without getting a cold. This was enough to upset his parents, but only when Mac started teasing his mother did he get a beating.

”Remember that I'm one of those parents who believe also in the efficacy of capital punishment!” exclaimed Mithalwen to her crying son, a large wooden spoon in her hand.

”Mith, aren't you being a bit too strict, strict and strict with him?” asked Nogrod. ”Bear in mind that he's but a boy, boy and boy.”

”Why are you repeating everything thrice?” asked Durelin.

”I want to make sure everyone understands what I say. Sometimes it takes some repeating.”

”Ah.”

”I'm definitely not too strict, Nogrod. That boy speaks so nastily that he deserves a good beating every now and then.”

”Did you hear that?” cried Boro. ”No ordinary mother constantly beats her own child. I'm saying Mith is a wolf!”

”I think Mith is right. And if the wolves were good, they'd kill Mac for speaking like that to his mother,” said McCaber kindly.

”But they kill silent people instead... Like the poor sally,” sighed Nerwen.

”Why sally? Why not McCaber or Aganzir, for example? They didn't speak much either,” asked Mith.

”I wonder indeed,” said Death.

”Did you hear that?” cried Boro. ”She's trying to confuse us. I'm saying Mith is a wolf!”

”I actually quite agree with you, Boro,” said Rikae. ”She's clearly lying.”

”I never tell any blatant lies... Well... Except...” Mith paused, looking guilty.

”Except what?” inquired Ka.

”Well... I think I've sometimes said 'What a beautiful baby' without really meaning it... But that's all.”

”Like when Menel was born? (I'm saying Mith is a wolf!)”

”Eh... Well... Maybe we shall not speak about that now, darling, shall we?”

The argument was interrupted by a loud wailing sound.

”Ai! Ai!” cried Lommy, ”my eyes!”

”What is it?” asked Greenie.

”Volo looks so foul it hurts! Take him away! I can't bear to look at him!”

”Hey... Do you really think I'm that ugly?” asked Volo in a confused voice.

”Bunnies... May I remind you that you have work to do and time is flying?” said Death.

”Oh, we completely forgot,” said the beggars, ”this is so much fun.”

”What shall we do to the lynchee today?” asked Menel.

”We need some more drinking water anyway,” said Durelin. ”What about breaking a hole in the ice of that river in the forest?”

”Sounds nice. We could drown someone there,” said Greenie.

**

The beggars left the house with picks and shovels. It took them some time to find the frozen river and shovel the snow away, and some more time to break a hole in the ice. Eventually they saw the black water, calm and threatening.

”Are there any volunteers?” asked Rikae.

”Well, if it was up to me and Boro, I think you should take me rather than him...” said McCaber.

”What?” asked the beggars who stood a little farther from the river.

”He said he volunteers!” shouted Rikae.

”Let's try if he is a real submarine!” cried Lommy.

The mob came and grabbed McCaber by his yellow coat sleeve. While Rikae and Durelin held his legs, Volo pushed his head under the water and held it there until no more bubbles came up.

McCaber had drowned, but his body was still that of a little boy's, not a wolf's. As the beggars stood watching, the last rays of the sun vanished below the mountains. They rushed back, towards the twinkling lights of the house.

**

Alive:
Nogrod the Agreeable, the leader of the beggars
his wife, Nerwen
elderly couple; Rikae the Kind
and Durelin
Boromir88 the Silent One, an ex-pickpocket
his wife, Mithalwen the Perpetually Sane and Serene
their children Macalaure the Guileless
and Meneltarmacil
Volo, a young widowed man
THE Ka, a blind old woman
orphaned little Thinlómien
and her little sister A Little Green

Dead:
Tom Bombadil (ranger) - killed on Night 1
Goldberry (seer) - killed on Night 1
The Barrow-wight (hunter) - killed on Night 1
Gwathagor, the child of Nogrod and Nerwen (ordo) - used as a battering ram on Day 1
Sally the Insufferable, a slightly mad crippled woman (ordo) - skinned, scalped and made to clothes on Night 2
the Right Honourable McCaber, Volo's child (ordo) - drowned in the Withywindle on Day 2

It is now Night 3. Wolves may kill. No posting here.

And sorry Ka, but your vote doesn't count.

Aganzir

02-29-2008, 01:00 PM

That night, it was snowing again. The wolves were sitting in the passage and chatting merrily. Death was studying a map of the Old Forest and the Shire.

”Would you guys mind getting me some ink tonight? A piece of charcoal is definitely not the best choice of medium for making accurate plans.”

”Sure,” said a wolf.

”That is no problem,” said another. ”Who, do you think, could provide us with the brightest colour?”

”I think I have an idea. But first I must ask you something... I have always wondered why we can only kill one person a night,” said the third.

”Me too. I mean, they are all asleep and we could easily kill them without making too much noise. Why not take them all at once? Why do we have to wait and risk getting ourselves killed by them first?”

Death seemed to be almost offended by the question. She lifted her eyes from the map. ”It is art! It takes time to make a masterpiece. You can't make several of them in just one night. I thought that was obvious.”

”Yes, now that I think it, it makes sense. Thank you.”

”Poor cubs – I know all too well how bloodlust feels. But don't worry. If everything goes as I have planned, you will soon have a plenty of kills for every night...”

**

”She wanted bright red ink.”

”Do you know how to turn blood bright red?”

”It takes a carbon monoxide poisoning.”

”Indeed.”

The wolves crept into the living room and took some charcoal from the fireplace.

”It always makes me feel so practical when I do something like this... We need to get proper-coloured ink instead of charcoal, and the easiest way to get it is to burn charcoal. This is so handy!”

They took the pieces to Tom and Goldberry's room and lit them. They returned to the living room, picked a sleeper and carried her away. She woke up in the passage. They bound and gagged her, pushed her into the room and closed the door. When they opened it again after a while, THE Ka was unconscious.

One wolf took a knife and another a basin while the third held her body. The wolf with the knife slit her throat open gravely. Bright red blood poured into the basin.

”What a beautiful hue!” exclaimed the third wolf delightedly.

**

The beggars were naturally very upset to discover Ka's limp and drained body and some bottled blood, but there was also another concern: it had snowed so much in the night that it was practically impossible to get about the house. Therefore Boro promised to go and shovel snow. When the yard was more or less passable again, he and Volo decided to go and see if McCaber's body was still where they had left it and if anything could be done for it anymore.

On their way there, a tree bumped into Boro.

”Oh my,” the tree said in a squeaky and smug voice, ”don't you have any manners? See, I hurt myself!” He pointed at the withered leaf that had fell on the snow.

”Sorry,” said Boro, ”but it was definitely not my fault. You came from the behind and were walking too fast for the weather conditions. You should have been more careful.”

”How very dare you?” asked the tree furiously, ”it was your fault indeed! I'll tell Old Man Willow what you did and he'll kill you!”

”Go away and stop bothering us,” said Boro.

”Well, well!” Volo said. ”These trees do shift.”

**

It took them a while to find McCaber's snow-covered body. They had almost dug it out when the tree returned.

”Old Man Willow tells you to come. Immediately!”

”Nah, I don't think so,” said Boro. ”I have a lovely wife and two sweet children, and wolf-hunting to do. I cannot possibly come.”

But even he couldn't resist the power of the Willow-man whose song and thought ran through the woods on both sides of the river. He tried to make it back to the house, but the trees barred his way. Roots and branches emerged from nowhere and took hold on him. It was the last time Boro was seen.

**

Alive:
Nogrod the Agreeable, the leader of the beggars
his wife, Nerwen
elderly couple; Rikae the Kind
and Durelin
Mithalwen the Perpetually Sane and Serene, Boro's widow
their children Macalaure the Guileless
and Meneltarmacil
Volo, a young widowed man
orphaned little Thinlómien
and her little sister A Little Green

Dead:
Tom Bombadil (ranger) - killed on Night 1
Goldberry (seer) - killed on Night 1
The Barrow-wight (hunter) - killed on Night 1
Gwathagor, the child of Nogrod and Nerwen (ordo) - used as a battering ram on Day 1
Sally the Insufferable, a slightly mad crippled woman (ordo) - skinned, scalped and made to clothes on Night 2
the Right Honourable McCaber, Volo's child (ordo) - drowned in the Withywindle on Day 2
THE Ka, a blind old woman (ordo) - poisoned with carbon monoxide & throat slit open on Night 3
Boromir88 the Silent One, Mith's husband, Mac & Menel's father, an ex-pickpocket (ordo) - accused unjustly and carried away against his will by annoying trees at the beginning of Day 3

It is now Day 3. Wolves stop PMing. Start talking.

Boro had to pull out because of work things.

Mithalwen

02-29-2008, 01:37 PM

Given his recent behaviour towards me I find my grief more controllable than it might have been. I knew him so well and he clearly didn't know me at all no matter what he thought.

So I have the choice of being a merry widow of taking advantage of the date and proposing to a replacement. However there is not exactly a glut of eligible bachelors around (story of my life ;) ) so ..... better find the wolves so I can survive to go to a happier hunting ground... Not easy - we are an extra innocent down and the only person of whose innocence I was confident is gone.

Macalaure

02-29-2008, 01:37 PM

1. Menel for McCaber.
He didn't say much all day. The vote itself is neither suspicious nor innocent.

2. Nerwen for Volo.
Her case was bad, but then, she didn't have any better, as far as I can see. Neither suspicious nor innocent.

3. Boro for meee!
Known innocentish vote.

4. Durelin for meee!
Maybe others need to judge whether her reasoning was good or not. To me, it's bad, but I feel like I'm biased. The vote placement isn't worrying, I think.

5. Rikae for Boro.
Follows her earlier suspicion. Nothing alarming here, especially since later she urged others to follow her vote.

6. Mith for Rikae.
This vote confuses me. I don't know why Mith plays so nervously and alarmed. I don't think it's wolvish, though.

7. McCaber for Volo.
Known innocentish vote.

8. Lily for meee!
Urged me twice to explain myself, and when I did, she didn't bother to say a thing about it and just voted me. Her last words sound very wolvish to me:
And if you start accusing me of joining a bandwaggon then I suggest you go and reread my posts from toDay. (Sorry - just had to say that.)It not only sounds wolvish, it also makes no sense to refer to her earlier suspicion, because it relied on my explanation and was therefore outdated. Unless she explains herself very convincingly, she's my top suspect for toDay.

9. Volo for McCaber.
Voted for the only one he saw as an alternative to himself and me. He was against trying to lynch Menel, which is something to keep in mind should we prove one of them guilty at some later point.

10. Lommy for Volo.
I think she overdid her "Who will I voooooooooooooooote?" yesterDay. She's another one who claimed to be interested in voting Menel but didn't do it because there was no support (at the time she said it, Menel could have gotten four votes: hers, Volo's, Nogrod's and mine). The way Volo declined to go this way was less suspicious (I doubt you can do it) opposed to Lommy's "No Menel-support? Oh, well..."

11. Nogrod for McCaber.
Wise choice at the time, I think. He was sufficiently suspicious of me before to make a plausible (objectively) case and vote for me. He didn't. I know Wolfgrod could pull this off, but for now I'll consider him likely innocent.

12. Me for McCaber.
Definitely not my first choice, but preferable to my own passing away.

And now I need to go and think about the deaths of the night.

Thinlómien

02-29-2008, 01:46 PM

At the moment, my mind is a mess, but I'll try to make some sense of it all and unfortunately you are doomed to read it... ;)

I'm not actually surprised to see THE Ka go but there's something odd in her death. I dare to claim we have sporty wolves: with once again messing up the deadline THE Ka placed herself in a situation where she would have been relatively possibly been removed from the game. So, in a way, the wolves did us a favour by killing her (now that sounds quite horrible, sorry Ka :p) by using their kill on someone who had bigger chance than the rest of us to be removed from the game as an extra innocent casuality, if you understand what I mean. But I'm not claiming this is the reason why the wolves killed her... I need to have a look at her posts.

I'm so sorry to see Boro go for out-of-game reasons. :( Well, at least I need not wonder about the contradictory signals he gave out anymore and my big project is reduced by a quarter.

Big project? As you probably remember, I was at the edge of anguish with the four experienced loudmouths - Mac, Rikae, Nog and Boro. I made the decision that I shall analyse all of them, if I'm still alive on this Day. And I'm going to keep this promise to myself. It only remains to be see when do I have time for that.

I'm almost 100% not all of Nog, Rikae and Mac are innocent. It just would not make sense, there's too much contradiction in the air. I think one or possibly two of them is/are wolf/wolves. Looking at the extremely fishy out-of-nowhere last-minute lynch yesterDay, I can not believe both Mac and Nog are innocent. They just can't be. I won't ramble more right now, but you can be sure I'll be back with some thoughts on yesterDay's voting with which there's something seriously wrong, I think, and to elaborate a bit more on this.

My shot-in-the-dark initial suspicion right now is that the wolves are Mac, Mith and Volo (or possibly Durelin or Menel here as the third one). But I need to analyse the loudmouths and think more about everybody, before I can really start pointing fingers at people.

Ok, this was supposed to be my "short" post... Both Nog and Greenie are waiting for their turn, so I'd better go. We'll be sharing the computer the whole Day, so we all can't flood-post all the time...

edit. xed with Mith and Mac - should I scream in terror? *would add a smiley if it was allowed*

Mithalwen

02-29-2008, 02:02 PM

Lommie, you have nothing to fear from me unless you are a wolf.
Mac,I don't know why Mith plays so nervously and alarmed I do not concur with your interpretation (mine is a simple combination of PMT, work stress, other RL stress and just too little time making me irritable. Perpetually sane and serene is ironic you know, you should, you have played with me before. The fact that you do not realise by now that being grouchy and thin skinned is completely normal for me in werewolf games, seems a bit odd.

Durelin

02-29-2008, 02:09 PM

Down two in one Night...not pretty... Why is it the village is never lucky enough to have a wolf drop out? :rolleyes:

Well, I must apologize right off the bat because I will be gone most of the day tomorrow (Saturday) visiting my grandmother, so I will have to vote before I go to bed tonight...unless I get up a little eary. Don't count on it. ;) But I will at least be staying up fairly late!

First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally. I hope that I'm not playing dirty here...I really don't mean to...it's just a game, but...these things do come into play. (I made Cailin a wolf and Eomer an innocent in the game I modded and apparently Eomer had promised that he was not to ever vote for her...not that something like that necessarily applies at all!) *hides behind a conveniently placed couch*

I need to go back and look at Rikae again...she's my first gut suspicion and I probably shouldn't have pushed her aside quite so much...

On the other hand, I agree with both her and Mac on A Little Green (except that their great suspicion seems to be completely based on the placement of her vote, which does not make sense to me...yes, factoring that in makes sense, but...). And I agree with Mac about Lommy. She's been playing up the uncertainty and a sort of "I'm too nice to want to kill anyone!" thing...at least I've been getting that sort of vibe from her. We all know she's not really just a squishy penguin through and through...

Both Lommy's and Nerwen's votes for Volo were soooo easy. Nerwen's especially...early on, when everyone was looking at Volo. She seems to have been going with the flow as much as possible. Of course, I have no idea what Volo is up to, so I don't know if I have much to go on. I like to give Volo the benefit of the doubt when he's all over the place, but...meh.

Edit: crossed with Mith

Mithalwen

02-29-2008, 02:16 PM

. We all know she's not really just a squishy penguin through and through...

She does have a ping-wing avatar thought ..they are fairly squishy penguins.... sorry flippant....

A Little Green

02-29-2008, 02:25 PM

As Mac seemed to ask for it, here come my reasons for suspecting him.

1. My yesterday's theory of a wolf slip. I'm still uncertain whether it really was a slip (actually I might have to think that through now that Cab is proven innocent...) or whether I should believe Mac's explanation of it.

2. His over-estimation of the suspicion cast on him looks furry.

3. His votes look fishy. On Day1, he voted precisely at the deadline, on Day2 a minute before it. Both times his vote has been to someone others have bandwaggoned first. Also, this caught my eye: I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber 6 minutes before deadline... and yet he votes him all the same. Of course it was to save his own skin, and I understand it, but combined to his Day1 vote of going with the bandwaggon but saying that "I would have much preferred Lommy" it looks weird...

To other matters, then. The thing I'm most worried about is yesterDay's last-minute Cabwagon. I left my lurking-post behind Lommie's shoulder a some ten minutes before deadline to go and chop chocolate. When at deadline I asked her who was lynched and she replied "McCaber" I was baffled, because when I had last seen the thread Cab had but one vote. He had received 3 votes in the last ten minutes. That is something we should have a look at, especially because Cabbie was innocent. Somehow I can't believe all the Cabwaggoners are just mislead innocents.

That's all for now. Apart from Mac, I am alarmed by Noggie (overall feeling + cabwaggoning) and Volo (weirdness + cabwaggoning). I'm unsure about Menel.

Now I think I'll let Nog use the computer for change, just for the sake of equality. :p

EDIT: x-ed with Mithdurelinmith

Macalaure

02-29-2008, 02:33 PM

I didn't find much that can be deduced from McCaber or Ka. She seems to be another one killed for not leaving trails. This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.

Bordomir:

Boro made cases of Mith, Rikae. However, even knowing that they come from an innocent mind, I don't find his arguments convincing. He also mentions Menel as suspicious.

I don't find Mith's behaviour towards Boro the last two days alarming. Nogrod's behaviour could be interpreted as a more subtle buddying-up, but I won't make that connection - yet.

Rikae's and Volo's suspicion of Boro looks sincere.

Lommy flipflops about him like only Lommy can. It doesn't leave me with a good feeling. Durelin is also overly indecisive on Boro.

Macalaure

02-29-2008, 02:59 PM

Mac,I don't know why Mith plays so nervously and alarmed I do not concur with your interpretation (mine is a simple combination of PMT, work stress, other RL stress and just too little time making me irritable. Perpetually sane and serene is ironic you know, you should, you have played with me before. The fact that you do not realise by now that being grouchy and thin skinned is completely normal for me in werewolf games, seems a bit odd.I know you're usually grouchy and thin-skinned, but you seemed to be more like it this time. Sad to hear the reason for it.

Now, over to you, my dear wolves. :)

I'm almost 100% not all of Nog, Rikae and Mac are innocent. It just would not make sense, there's too much contradiction in the air.I don't know what you're talking about (what contradiction?), and I think you're pushing your Nog, Rikae, Mac, (Boro) thing way to hard. You look like a wolf trying to get the village to lynch an(y) innocent loudmouth.

First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally.Durelin goes into a similar direction. I haven't been buddying up to Rikae. I think she's innocent, but that's all I said. Rikae doesn't seem to be sure what to do with me, defending me at one time and accusing me at another. The latter makes no sense if she wanted to buddy up to me.

On the other hand, I agree with both her and Mac on A Little Green (except that their great suspicion seems to be completely based on the placement of her vote, which does not make sense to me...yes, factoring that in makes sense, but...).You agree with Rikae and me about Lily, but you think our cases make no sense? Then I suspect you have a case of your own that makes more sense? Share it, please. ;)

3. His votes look fishy. On Day1, he voted precisely at the deadline, on Day2 a minute before it. Both times his vote has been to someone others have bandwaggoned first. Also, this caught my eye:
I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber

6 minutes before deadline... and yet he votes him all the same. Of course it was to save his own skin, and I understand it, but combined to his Day1 vote of going with the bandwaggon but saying that "I would have much preferred Lommy" it looks weird...I explained my Day One vote already and I don't see anything suspicious about my vote yesterDay. What are you going after here?

I might be wrong about one of the three - I'm usually getting something wrong when I'm too sure about a complete wolf pack - but these three look horribly wolvish compared to anybody else.

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 03:10 PM

I didn't find much that can be deduced from McCaber or Ka. She seems to be another one killed for not leaving trails. This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.That is what I thought of first too... but I wouldn't be too sure that's the only explanation.

Whatever the case the wolves must feel comfortable looking at their kills. Or if not then they are really good creating that impression to move the attention away from themselves.

I came to think of that after I realised my initial reaction was a need to rethink all over again and totally change my scope toDay as it seems I have been so wrong all the time. But as Lommy and Greenie had their turns on my computer first I got time to think and rethink and came to wonder whether that was just the thing the wolves wanted us to do... to feel the need of rethinking - I mean after all most of us very loud players have been quite easy towards each other so far.

It would be quite outstanding indeed - and hats off to the wolves for that if that's the case - that they were having hard times and decided to go on confusing us in hope of getting the loud ones against each other.

But it would be quite a complicated thing to be sure and even if I tend to love these multilayered theories I know the shortcomings of that attitude as well. Having being a wolf a few times I just know there seldomly is the time and / or effort to create that nice master-plans. But who knows?

So the other chance is that we loudmouths were just so far off that they felt it safe to pick The Ka and leave us with the insecurity.

Then again the wolves could not have known that Boro leaves the game... could that have any bearing on the situation?

Or then... and this is the nightmare-scenario... at least two of the more experienced-loudmouthed-theory generating-accomplished wolfhunters are now wolves and they are just trying to keep us others of the same reputation alive so as people would not start to question why they're alive themselves...

Too many possibilities...

I need to go back to yesterDay and look if there is something I have missed and to recollect my thoughts about what happened.

But this was my version of a "short post" to begin with and now I need to turn the computer to Lommy and Greenie first.

Mithalwen

02-29-2008, 03:37 PM

Sorry I will try to be more usefull tomorrow. I am not up to much just now....

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 04:33 PM

Lommy and LG decided to go to sleep as well...

(OOC: I read them a bedtimestory from the Arabian "1001 Nights" - I don't remember when I have read them a bedsidestory the last time... It was kind of cute - and the story was so weird!!!]

But Mith, Lommy and Greenie suddenly pulling off early... Okay, I'm not going to make a number of it at this point as there are reasons for everyone.

What to do then?

I will look at the vote myself too and will try to cross-examine the votes of the two Days so far.

I will also look at Nerwen as I promised yesterDay as she has started to bother me since Volo made his point yesterDay (I just realised then that he struck in the exact same thing I found a bit bothering in her analysis earlier but didn't stick to it) and she has been one who has flown under my radar quite nicely by posting enough but not coming forwards so much as to make a mark.

I also readily confess I have only a little about people like Lommy, Greenie, Durelin, and Mith - and my thoughts on Rikae and Mac will need upgrading as well... and I'm not too confident about the thoughts I have on Menel or Volo either...

It seems I need to look at everyone... Maybe this was just the thing the wolves wished to accomplish as yesterDay I thought I had something like a hang of it (not a good one but a scenario which is now out of question) so now I feel I'm in the dead-end alley.

To work then.

And hoping to have some company...

Volo

02-29-2008, 04:47 PM

Just came home from an uninteresting film and feel dead tired.

To say the truth I'm not very surprised with the outcome. I'm even somewhat relieved, since now I won't try to lynch at least those Innocents.

Nerwen stays a suspect, Lommy feels odd after yesterDay, Durelin and Menel have swam under my net.

I'll do what I can tomorrow.

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 05:24 PM

One thing that still bothers me even if Lommy tried to downplay it with her quite believable personal defence of it is the number of people who tried to "justify" their vote on Day1 with a phrase "I don't wish to see Boro die". Even if it's understandable the actual number of people using it is just plain ridiculous. Now as Boro is actually away and proven innocent this list kind of gets a new and a bit weightier meaning as the wolves knew he was innocent! There were so many people making the phrase that not all of them probably are innocents as it would fit a wolf so well to join that crowd...

Of those still alive there are Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there.

---

Those alive who took part in the Gwath-wagon (there probably is at least one wolf there - possibly two as it was so neat for them to hide looking at the situation): Greenie, Rikae, Mith, Volo, Mac

---

Crossing the two tables leads to:

Lommy 1 hit (saying let's not kill Boro)
Greenie 1 hit (not saying let's not kill Boro but voting Gwath)
Rikae 1 hit (not saying let's not kill Boro but voting Gwath)
Mith 2 hits
Mac 2 hits
Volo 2 hits

---

This is getting to look like work indeed... :)

I'll take a break and come back before I go to sleep.

Meneltarmacil

02-29-2008, 05:50 PM

With an innocent McCaber, I think we may have a good idea of where to start looking for Wolves.

I think one may have hid in the Caberwagon on Day 1 while another voted for Gwath, and the third one voted for someone else.

I also think there's a wolf in the latest Caberwagon, the one that lynched him.

As for the possibilities, I see a few:
Volo voted for Gwath and McCaber, not counting his Ka-vote. Staying in bandwagons is hardly ever good. Plus, all his votes were for known innocents, again not a good sign.

Nogrod votes for McCaber both times. Good choice to cover one's tracks, claim that you voted for him before, therefore you must legitimately suspect the latest bandwagonee.

And then there's Mac... Oh, what am I to do with you? Same bandwagons as Volo, and I've suspected him before. Well, I doubt he and Volo are both wolves, as voting the same bandwagons twice in a row would be dangerous.

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 06:49 PM

DAY1

On her first post she quotes a lengthy part of my post and says: glad to see everyone loking on the bright side– of course that's only to be expected of my husband.

Looking like trying to make friends with a role-husband... could be just first-post in-character thing as well.

Then says: I'm a bit worried about why everyone is going after the poor orphan Lommy. It wasn't nice of her to pick on my son, but children will be children. I really think it was just a joke.After that she notifies Mac's point about Lommy's self-evidenting reasoning saying: Well, it's possible...
I can't say anymore now... working my fingers to the bone,I am, and does anyone care? *goes off muttering*

Then she comes back with her analysis on people... she analyses:

- Lommy (looks perfectly innocent however says she doesn't look too good)
- Mac (seems rather jumpy to her and had a strained argument but might as well be trying to get reactions like the last time)
- Menel (she borrows the suspicions of others but points out Menel tries to separate himself from Boro's thoughts)
-The Ka ("Is apparently trying to win a prize for saying the least in the most words. A possible "safe" wolf-tactic?") - a known innocent.
- Durelin ("Durelin I've never played before")
- Sally (says things which sound "terribly wolvish but the thing is she always does") - a known innocent
- Gwath (only early banter but then a point to Boro) - a known innocent

Then she goes against Rikae with her suspicion of that point as Gwath was seen going to defend Sally and Dury and gives another interpretation of the situation ("but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.")

- McCaber ("he's basically doing the same thing as Gwath– except for suspecting one person") - a known innocent

Then she says she hasn't any time for more. Points we should hear from Greenie and Mith (who hadn't posted at that time). Says: I'm getting much the same nasty "there's something going on but I don't know what" feeling as in the last village.Says loves Rikae for her post where Rikae says she tends to suspect her.

She does not say anything about Nogrod, Boro and Volo and she leaves Rikae outside her analysis even if she refers to her a few times but not with any analysis.

DAY2

Regrets her non-vote, promises to look at Sally more closely, says there were some peculiar things around the deadline.

Makes a Sallyanalysis ending it with: I'd say she was picked as a safe kill– except that she's said things that would have made her an easy lynch toDay. She was also under suspicion because of the perceived connection between her and Durelin. YesterDay most people were taking the line, "Oh well, that's Sally– who knows?" –but surely it would have been easy for the wolves to turn that around.

Reminds people not to overlook Volo because of his vote on Day1.

Comes back with a larger analysis.
Says: "Rikae, Lommy and Mac seem okay to me, as of the time of posting."
- The Ka ("literally gave me a headache." + "So far, well and good– but then it turns into a rather creepy description of her preferred wolfing tactics... I don’t know what to make of her.") - a known innocent
- Durelin ("likewise.")
- Menel ("seems to have fallen off the radar, and after yesterDay I think he should be on it.")
- Boro and Nogrod ("seem slippery– and both of them certainly played a part in getting Gwath killed... Also Boro's suspicions of Mithalwen today strike me as quite genuine.") - Boro a known innocent
All that "led her to ": Mith– her reasons for voting Gwath look rather bad. Half of her posts toDay sound vaguely sinister, the other half just vague. (Btw, what is the count now of people using the “If I were a wolf I’d do X, and I’m doing Y, so I can’t be a wolf” argument?)

McCaber– Another slippery one, another one who helped start the Gwath bandwagon, another one who voted in an “I’m not really doing this” kind of way. The combination of all three looks nasty.

Volo. Gave a weird vote, giving a strong impression that he didn’t care who got lynched, and was perhaps trying to vote “informal”. ToDay (#184) he gives an “explanation” that doesn’t help at allwhich was added with Volo's quote where he said it would be better to look after people getting after his vote than his vote itself, ending with a comment: "I mean– WHAT?"

Doesn't mention Greenie.

Votes Volo.

Meneltarmacil

02-29-2008, 07:15 PM

Well, Nogrod, that is indeed a revealing analysis.

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Also, note the way she "suspects" Mac early on:

Yes, but let's not allow that to get twisted into, "well, hey, it doesn't matter who we lynch". I suspect the wolves may try that.
Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

The no-vote on Day 1 is interesting in light of the pattern I mentioned earlier, as it definitely gets her out of the bandwagons.

Also, this would suggest that Nogrod be taken off my suspicious list for suggesting her. However I'm not doing that unless Nerwen is found guilty.

Rikae

02-29-2008, 07:15 PM

Well, to tell you the truth, I'm beginning to lose faith in the power of analysis. Still, I'm sleep-deprived at the moment, so I may be able to muster the energy to be a little more analytical tomorrow (toDay).
At any rate, if I were to listen to the nagging "gut feelings" Ive been having, I would say that I have an inexplicable sense that Lommy and Durelin are somehow laughing behind their posts. I've been uneasy about Lommy all along, but without really any concrete reasons. I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.
I also don't trust Mac... mark my words. I'm not sure he's a wolf, but I don't have the certainty he's an ordo that I've felt before, either. Just wanted to make that clear... I have been trying very hard to pin him down since the game began, but I keep thinking myself in circles.

EDIT: X'd with Menel, obviously.

Nerwen

02-29-2008, 07:23 PM

Hi, all. Well, it seems my instincts are way off, because I was starting to have a bad feeling about the departed Boro... and I had McCaber down as a likely wolf.

Now, about my vote for Volo that Durelin, Mac and Nogrod don't like– As I explained, I had to vote early, so I went with someone who appeared suspicious to me at the time, rather than vote at random. It really is that simple.

Well, his posts after that look bad– immediately putting the Ka and me on his suspicion list because we suspected him! However, we now know that whatever his Day One vote was about, it wasn't to save McCaber– and I do think Rikae has a point with this:

I'm afraid we're making the same mistake as yesterday, if we lynch Volo -- lynching the erratic one who is actually too uncautious for a wolf.

This is something I've been worried about all along. On the first Day everyone was saying that the lack of gifteds would make it easier to spot wolves– well, yes, but it could also make people more willing to lynch "eccentric" players. On the other hand, Volo is experienced– could he really not see that he was acting in a way to make people suspect him? But then, surely he'd be more careful as a wolf? I'm not sure what to think about him right now.

One person who is starting to worry me is Durelin. I've overlooked her so far, but she's increasingly giving me a "creepy" feeling. I need to look at her some more. I still don't like the look of Mithalwen... other than that I've got no idea.:( What I can't see is signs that people are working together.

I'll re-read everything and hopefully be more helpful in my next post.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod, Menel, Rikae.

Rikae

02-29-2008, 07:24 PM

On second thought, I do know what Mac is. I need to stop second guessing myself -- it's just that, if I'm wrong, after all my bragging, I'll be embarrassed. Still, I'm going to trust my gut on this one now. Sorry, Schatz (and thanks for not killing me yet)... but a furry pelt and a long tail cannot be overlooked.

++Macalaure

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen, added missing "what" in first sentence.

Nerwen

02-29-2008, 07:39 PM

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Menel, most of what you are calling "casting suspicion" was simply me putting the case for and against people. Nogrod is quoting me out of context and twisting my words. (And he's the one who first cast suspicion on Gwath– I defended him.)

Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

It may look that way, but I was actually trying to caution the village.

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 07:41 PM

What do I / we learn about my "Nerwenalysis"?

It seems to hold that she is really careful and tends to suspect / vote people others have suspected. That would be an easy way for a wolf.

On Day1 she seems to be the most agreeable with me but on Day 2 she paints myself and Boro a bit more suspicious saying I was one taking part of getting Gwath killed - with Boro - in which she is again following the common talk at the time.

Doesn't mention Volo on Day1 but jumps on him as much as to vote him on Day 2 because of his vote and the way he defended it. And she wasn't the first one to point that out. Voted for him early enough.

She puts Mac and Lommy on Day 1 to the same category of a roundabout "yes and no" and on Day 2 she seems to declare them innocents...

She kind of banters with Rikae on Day1 (even if to prove a point in the first instance) and on Day2 she claims she is innocentish...

Dury only gets a "never played with her before" or "likewise"?

Greenie never appears on her lists...

So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...

EDIT: just saw the latest posts and need to think again... :confused:

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 07:47 PM

How come Rikae you're so sure?

I mean I have had my suspicions on Mac but this looks like quite extraordinary.

Rikae

02-29-2008, 07:57 PM

How come Rikae you're so sure?

I mean I have had my suspicions on Mac but this looks like quite extraordinary.

Really mostly by feeling. I've observed in past games that Mac tends to act controversially, and look suspicious, even as an ordo, but he takes on a certain, subtle attitude as a wolf that isn't there otherwise. I don't know how to describe it -- it's a sort of combination of touchyness and pride that isn't there otherwise. He also is quite capable of a wolf-slip -- I've seen him make them in other games, and cover them up, but doesn't hide his certainty of other people's innocence very well. The thing Greenie (?) pointed out in his post about McCaber fits that profile. I also know that, as a wolf, he's especially annoyed when people suspect him for the things he "didn't do" instead of the things he "did do" -- and his post late yesterday, that I called wolvish, suggests that same frustration. An ordo Mac is less prone to that, in my experience -- he's more laid back in that case. Still, it is mainly this feeling I have, and have been arguing with myself about all along, that he's a wolf. It seems that logic doesn't serve me very well, while intuition has generally served me better, so I thought I would get that out there, for what it's worth, and vote where my suspicions point me.

Durelin

02-29-2008, 08:11 PM

Okay, apparently my plans for tomorrow have been rescheduled for Sunday, so I will be able to be around longer than expected.

Mac - You caught me being sloppy twice. I didn't explain my whole 'buddying up' thing very well, and really that's a pretty bad name for it. Part of what I thought was so odd was how back and forth Rikae was about you, either defending you and jumping on Little Green's vote against you, or calling you a wolf. Huh, I guess looking back it was more Rikae who made you two seem odd in that way than you.

Second thing - I agree with you on A Little Green as really skating by very neatly, and while I agree the placement of her vote for you should be considered, I don't think that should be what makes her suddenly a top suspect.

You're still largely interested in what happens to you...I guess you have been getting a lot of crap this game, but...

Rikae has voted. For Mac. Sooo...what happened to A Little Green?

I really don't know why you bothered quoting Nerwen's initial in-character banter in your analysis, Nogrod. Straw-clutching a bit? Makes a good bit of it seem almost contrived... But I am glad someone's looking at Nerwen seriously.

Personally, I'm focusing my energy on Rikae and A Little Green. Actually, putting their names together almost seems to click a little...their contact has been very limited and rather indirect, largely over Mac...oh, I'm pulling things out of my head, which I do not trust - I need to go back and look. Unfortunately my eyes are starting to burn staring at the comp screen so that will have to be later...

Edit: Crossed with Rikae

Nogrod

02-29-2008, 08:16 PM

Okay.

It's coming too late for me to stay awake.

But there really has been things going on! We should read these posts of toDay carefully indeed.

I hope people post as we're at the crucial moments. It's 7-3 at the moment and that doesn't look too bad in itself, but on the beginning of Day 4 (the next Day) it will be 5-3 if we don't get it right toDay and if we miss on the next Day, it's the end...

So let's concentrate.

I'm to sleep now.

PS. Looking at Rikae's last post. You seem to make some of the same points I've thought were problematic with Mac. The way he said he was the talk of the town on Day1 like wolves feel they are when he actually wasn't (and which was the initial reason - combined with my personal annoyance that he began the game with suspecting me from out of the blue and with no points whatsoever once again - admitted), and his overall touchiness that lends itself to the posts he made in the end of the last Day don't look good even if he's good enough to make posts that otherwise look believable - the art in which certain people are the masters (so should I look at you if Mac turns out innocent? :rolleyes:).

But that's a case to be considered. Now I'm off to sleep.

EDIT: X'd with Dury

Nerwen

02-29-2008, 11:20 PM

Rikae, after reading the late posts yesterDay I'm less inclined to think Mac innocent that I did– and, yes, he's had a strange edginess to his manner. Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Also:

This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.

Now, if you assume he is furry, that sounds like a smoothly-delivered gloat-cum-double-bluff, which hardly sits with his observed nervousness.

Meneltarmacil

02-29-2008, 11:51 PM

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 01:00 AM

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

Menel, I am not trying to absolve Mac– in fact I'm saying that I'm re-thinking my opinion of him. I did not detail what I meant by his "edginess" because I'd only be repeating observations already made by Greenie and Rikae.

What in Middle-earth do you mean by "valid criticisms"? Mac can't have let slip that he knew McCaber was a wolf. McCaber wasn't a wolf.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 02:45 AM

I said I'd look at Durelin.

Earlier I couldn't get a read on her, except that this:

Okay, I feel now I can vote for McCab. I mean, how shocking that he returns suspicious of Gwath

sounded overdone, if you know what I mean.

Other than that, she hasn't said that much, but her posts yesterDay (#213) and toDay (#279 and #299) look like she's both trying to agree with everyone and suspect everyone at the same time. Possibly so she can safely jump on any given wagon that presents itself?

Admittedly, this is rather thin– and also I don't know how she usually plays– but I don’t think she should be allowed to slip by the way she’s doing.

Menel next.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 03:40 AM

Rikae's vote for me was.. unexpected. :rolleyes: If this was the vote of a wolf, it was a bold one, because it sticks out badly and will come to haunt her in case I'm lynched and found innocent. But then, maybe the wolves play safe at night and bold at day. Playing differently at night and day is a good cover. I still like my other top suspects better than her, since they're being more sneaky.

I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

I had some reservations about calling Nerwen innocent the past two Days, but reading her posts of toDay finally make me confident in saying so.

Menel seems more innocent, too, but rather off the track. I think you're too fixed on a few people and lose objectivity. While this makes you appear innocent to me, it's not too helpful.

A Little Green

03-01-2008, 03:46 AM

Okay I don't have time now to write anything long and will be gone for most of the Day, but I'll certainly be back a few hours before deadline.

From toDay's posts, Mac looks worse, I'm baffled about Nerwen and feel better about both Nog and Menel.

I've got to go now. Sorry.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 03:55 AM

I’ve ending up analysing Menel in more detail than Durelin, because there’s more to go on (whereas she seems to be trying to be as vague as possible).

Day 1.

#20. Says Lommy is provoking Gwath and “casting suspicion on him for no good reason”. Makes prediction: he will suspect Boro who will prove innocent.

#23. Says Lommy is “jokingly casting suspicion” on Gwath. Says this is a wolf-tactic.

#33. (I think replying to Boro’s comment about Lommy’s playing style) “To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.”

To quote myself on the same Day (#59): looks to me like he's saying, "See? I didn't jump on Boro's suggestions at all!"

Says his comment on Boro was because Boro has usually been innocent when he suspected him.

#43. Is (quite reasonably, I think) puzzled by Mac jumping on Nogrod’s line about “protecting our assets”.

#72. Doesn’t know why Mac thought Nogrod’s line worth mentioning; doesn’t know what to make of McCaber.

#101. Lommy and Mac are odd; suspects Mac more. Doesn’t suspect Gwath. Votes Mac (gives no reason).

Day 2.

#179. Suspects Mac and McCaber.

#189. Agrees with Boro that Mith is suspicious. Votes McCaber on the grounds that he voted Gwath on such weak reasons.

Day 3.

#289. Says the “Caberwagon” will probably shed light on who the wolves are. Sees Nogrod, Volo and Mac as suspicious.

#291. Finds Nogrod’s analysis of me “revealing” and goes on to theorize that Mac and I are wolves together.

#302. Says I’m “trying to ‘suspect’ Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. (For the record: I'm not– I'm just trying to think it out.)

General comments: veering around like a weathervane, and seems willing to suspect whoever the last poster did. But is he a wolf trying to play safe, or just a bewildered innocent? I could read it either way.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Greenie.
EDIT 2: fixed tags.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 05:07 AM

I need to look at some more people; still don't have any clear ideas on who the wolves are. This is like a replay of last game, only worse. (Hands up who still thinks gifteds are useless?)

Just a reminder to everyone: The Departure of Boromir means there are now three wolves vs seven innocents. If we don't get a wolf toDay, toMorrow could be the end, so please be very careful with your votes.

Thinlómien

03-01-2008, 05:43 AM

Okay, a quick-ish posts before I'll start the analyses.

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... :rolleyes: ;))

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.

What else? Since Nogrod's analysis Nerwen has felt less innocent. Actually, I look at everything she says with a reservation I did not have before and there's something evil-looking in there. Now I'm slightly concerned about how I was this well turned by Nogrod's analysis and will refrain commenting on Nerwen before I've analysed Nogrod.

Even though I feel this way, I feel a bit alarmed about Menel's quick jump to supporting Nogrod's somewhat critical Nerwen-analysis. It looks like he really had no reservations about Nogrod's motives or that he didn't really consider Nerwen but rather jumped on what could later become a bandwagon.

I don't know what you're talking about (what contradiction?), and I think you're pushing your Nog, Rikae, Mac, (Boro) thing way to hard. You look like a wolf trying to get the village to lynch an(y) innocent loudmouth.
I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.(In response to both) Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.
Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...

I'm torn about Mith. On the other hand, there's something sinister around her, but on the other hand, her declaration of innocence speaks for her actual innocence and RL reasons are RL reasons... I think I should have a look at her, too, if I have time.

There's something very suspicious in Durelin's very manner toDay and it's confusing me. And no, I'm afraid I can't elaborate, it's more like a feeling.

Ok, now I'm off to do Macalysis as it seems like a rather urgent matter... then I will probably proceed to Noglysis to re-judge the him-Nerwen thing and lastly, if I have time, I'll look at Rikae who started to feel more innocent because of her vote. Although, I really wouldn't put it past her to vote her fellow like that.

See? I'm already assuming Mac's a wolf... not good...

Volo

03-01-2008, 06:42 AM

Gah! This is terrible! Too much porridge, I just can't have it all.

By this time I'm quite sure that the Wolves would slip a few gloats in.

Before Nerwen's posts toDay, I felt she's a Wolf (and possibly in a team with Durelin), but after she looks more Innocent. I think I'll have to go through the whole case again. At the very least, she's putting some distance between herself and Durelin.

Mac has been a target of attacks based on gut feelings from both Rikae and Lommy, though both explained their gut feelings. Nogrod agreed with Rikae's explanation. Another mess.
I agree that during yesterDay's vote rush, Mac felt bad, a bit like in Nogrod's game - even to the point of teaming up with me (even though I did that myself with him, I regard anybody agreeing with me suspicious :rolleyes: ). Still it was Rikae who felt like the gloating one.
Lommy on the other hand felt genuine, as she does toDay.

Lily is another subject altogether, she feels more Innocent than ever before, but I can't bring myself to agree with anything she says. Her style is provocative and she looks like grasping at straws. I think I'll have to reread what she has said.

I might as well go through everybody, starting with Durelin and Menel. What I said in this post has pretty much been based on my own feelings - I'll go and see if logicn and truth backs them up.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 06:55 AM

Lommynalysis:

I'm going to have to split this into three parts, because she's posted a lot.

Day 1

#4. Banter: teases “Gwathy”. Says now we can pursue suspicious behaviour without worrying that we're flushing out gifteds.

So we have Lommy to thank for starting that particular ball rolling. All the same, I still can't see why people jumped on her for this post, which looks very innocent to me.

#5. Just noticed this: looks like only wolves can talk now. So did we now reveal ourselves, Gwathie?

Now, I can understand why people might call that wolfish (double-bluffing and all), but I really think she’s just being silly– it’s only the fifth post, after all.

#10. More banter with Gwath.

#16. Says if she has no real suspect by the end of the Day, she will vote a non-contributor.

#18. Questions Mac’s suspicion of Nogrod. Says Mac is “odd”.

#19. (Answering Boro) Boro, the flaw in your logic is that I'm always dead nervous and unsure as a wolf. I never really enjoy it. So if I'm genuinely confident and enjoying myself, I'm innocent. Which of course doesn't mean I couldn't try to feign confidence if I was a wolf. But I'm bad at deception so if I'm only playing confident I'm probably ringing false or overdoing it...

So we also have Lommy to thank for starting the “If I were a wolf I’d do X” fashion in arguments.:rolleyes:

#21. (Answering Menel, who says she’s casting suspicion on Gwath) Provoking? Yes, deliberatedly. Casting suspicion? *raises eyebrow* Not so that I can see it. That was a curious accusation.

#25. (Answering Menel again). Points out that her second post, if taken seriously, would incriminate her as well as Gwath.

#26. (Answering Mac). Says she’s not accusing him, jusy making an observation.

#61. (Answering Menel, who says playing styles show nothing). As a wolf I never intentionally play differently, but it shows in my behaviour nevertheless so I do end up playing a bit differently.

Find Sally, Boro, and me innocent. Volo and McCaber have “an aura of hidden evilry”.

#67. Wonders where Greenie is. Says Mac thinks everyone is talking about him when they are not– a possible sign of wolfish paranoia.

#69. Does not like McCaber’s suspicion of Gwath. Thinks Rikae may be intentionally trying to involve the village in useless speculation about “the me-Mac-Boro-Sally-Durelin-Gwath thing”. Says the Ka’s meandering is normal.

#99. Agrees with Boromir that Volo is suspicious. Agrees with Boro and Greenie that Gwath’s vote is troubling, but cautions, Gwath could be the easy newbie lynch victim. *sigh*

Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen
Boro
Sally

Slightly innocentish
THE Ka
Menel

Neutral
Mith
Greenie
Durelin
Nogrod
Rikae

Suspicious-ish
Volo
McCaber
Gwath
Mac”

# 100. Says she should consider Nogrod innocent, but some weird brake in my head restrains me from doing so. *shrugs*

#107. Could vote Volo, McCaber, Gwath or Mac. Agrees with Nogrod that “we should not vote vocal players without comparing their suspiciosness to their loudness”. Says she will leave Mac alone and vote Volo, McCaber or Gwathagor.

#110. Would rather vote Volo or McCaber than Gwath.

#125. Says Mac’s post on Nogrod is eally about Mac, and that his defensiveness makes her suspect him more.

#131. Says voting Gwath feels wrong but voting Boro would feel even more so... *sigh*

#136. Votes McCaber, “to whatever end”.

#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”

(Yes, very short post).

#145. (After DL) Asks if Volo’s vote counts as a vote for Gwath or The Ka.

Comments: Well, on Day One Lommy is indecisive, throws suspicion around, and now and then it looks as if she's taking instruction from Nogrod. (Also I find that "*sigh*" thing she does rather irritating). However, my impression here is that she's innocent and behaving a bit erratically as a result of having come under heavy fire almost immediately.

Lommy: Day Two coming soon to a WW thread near you.

EDIT: fixed tags.

EDIT 2: fixed more tags. X'd with Volo, Lommy.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 06:56 AM

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... :rolleyes: ;))
What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.
You are admitting you're acting suspicious, in a lommy-ish "unsuspicious" way. However, in the paragraph beneath, you say that nobody has yet made a case against you. You seem to be aware of doing suspicious things without having people point them out to you - again, typically wolvish.

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.
YesterDay I had to vote so save myself, the Day before I didn't vote for you because there was no chance to actually lynch you, and I don't like throwing my vote away like that.

Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.
If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves. Considering your night kills, you and your wolfmates are obviously looking for the big ones lynching each other during the Days. Your Day behaviour, and that of Durelin and Lily, too, for that matter, fits perfectly to the wolf kills.

Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...
Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.

++Thinlómien

Ridiculously early vote, I know. I also know that I might need my vote to save myself toDay once more. However, I'm sure nearly beyond doubt that Lommy, Durelin, and Lily are our wolves. This makes me less afraid of being lynched myself, because in that case you will have the benefit of knowing this opinion is honest.

Thinlómien

03-01-2008, 06:57 AM

Ok, I did some of my Macalysis (Day1 and the beginning of Day2) but now my friends came to see me so I'll finish and post it later.

edit: semi-xed with Volo, Nerwen and Mac (who is a wolf obviously because he voted me - I'll elaborate on that later)

Volo

03-01-2008, 07:09 AM

You know what? I've got a feeling that either both Lommy and Mac are Wolves, or neither is. :rolleyes:

Rikae

03-01-2008, 07:51 AM

Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 08:06 AM

Lommynalysis

Day 2.

#151. Doesn’t understand why Mith thinks Sally’s death incriminates A Little Green. Points out that we can’t lynch Aganzir, in spite of her low post count. Sally was probably just a safe kill, but that her posts should still be examined, as should the Day One votes.

#159. Suspects McCaber and Mithalwen– thinks Mith is acting towards Boro as Rikae did to Mac in the last game. In confused by Mac– finds him “nervously defensive”– he remind her of herself when furry. Asks Nogrod to elaborate on why he suspects certain people. Disagrees with Mac that Sally’s death exonerates The Ka.

#182. Thinks Rikae innocent. (Replying to Mac) says her vote for McCaber X’d with others and would have been neither risky nor smart even if were she a wolf. Doesn’t like, Boro, Nogrod or The Ka. Says Nogrod, Greenie, Durelin & THE Ka have slipped under her radar.

#186. Finds Volo suspicious.

#187. Mac seems more innocent, others less so. Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen

Slightly innocentish
Rikae
Boro
THE Ka

Neutral
Nogrod
Mac
A Little Green (ugh, she really slips under my radar)

Slightly suspicious-ish
Durelin
Menel

Suspicious-ish
McCaber
Mith

Suspicious
Volo

#199. Is struck by Greenie’s theory that Mac slipped up and revealed his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Says the quote could also be read to mean that Mac knew McCaber was innocent. Then say the quote seems normal after all.

#212. Says there’s little point examining the people who said they were only voting on Day One to save Boromir. Volo “looks so foul it hurts”. Yet his frustation seems innocent. Still confused about Mac.

#217. Finds Mith innocent because she herself, if a wolf, would never do something as blatant as actually proclaiming her innocence.

I mean, as a wolf, I would never do such a proclamation of innocence. I could say I'm innocent, but I would not make a show of it. It would feel so completely dishonest. Maybe I'm naive, but I instinctively assume other people be as honest/stupid as me...

(Now that I do not like– it's almost creepily self-conscious)

Doesn’t understand why Durelin thinks she’s “freaking”.

#253. Would like to vote McCaber or Volo.

#258. Votes Volo.

#259. (Replying to Rikae, who says we shouldn’t give Boro a free pass) This should be remembered.

#262. (Replying to Rikae, who says Volo is too uncautious to be a wolf) With no seer the wolves can afford being uncautious... which isn't saying I'm sure about Volo's guilt.

#268. (After Mac says he’d prefer voting McCaber to Volo) Mac looks innocent and should not be lynched.

Comment: Flip-flopping as usual. Still seems innocent, even if #217 gives me pause.

EDIT: fixed tags; X'd with Rikae.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 08:10 AM

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

Yes, and Lommy said the same thing. I just saw that now while re-reading yesterDay's posts.

Hmmn. Maybe you're right about him after all. I don't like his reasons for voting Lommy.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 08:14 AM

You know, if Mac does actually turn out innocent after all, it would be a good idea to take seriously the accusations he's made today, I think.
Actually, even if he is a wolf, he may be resorting to some wolf-on-wolf tactics in anticipation of being lynched... I'm inclined to think so, because I find the people he's listed suspicious as well (of course, they can't *all* be wolves, but I doubt very highly they're all innocent!)

Actually, of those three, Lommy's recent post makes me feel better about her simply because it is so subjective. It's the sort of glimpse into her own psyche (remember, Lommy, you don't necessarily look the same to us as you do to yourself) that would be hard for a wolf to fake.

EDIT: Removed floating punctuation, X'd with Nerwen.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 08:23 AM

No, I don't think it's Lommy. I've just re-read everything she said in the first two Days, and I highly doubt she's a wolf. The other two would certainly bear looking at. I haven't given much thought to Greenie... and Durelin I find positively creepy.

Volo

03-01-2008, 09:00 AM

Rikae

03-01-2008, 09:22 AM

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

Volo

03-01-2008, 09:24 AM

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis. At first I wanted to agree, but something feels foul now.
Not to forget that the two Days before were very smoothly (although this can apply to Durelin too, but to a lesser extent).
I'm quite ready to call her a Wolf - the thing that bothers me however is how quick Mac and Nogrod were to agree about her. Maybe others too, I think I'll check that next.

Volo

03-01-2008, 09:27 AM

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

I am aware of that. I would like to think of her as Innocent. I'm not fully convinced though.
If she's a Wolf, the kills have been to her favour.

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

What are your, Durelin, conclusions at the moment? (I hope she comes soon.)

Rikae

03-01-2008, 10:00 AM

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea... although we'd probably learn more by lynching Mac.
I'm not sure about the likelyhood of them being wolves together, though. I'll have to go back and look at their interactions more closely...

Mithalwen

03-01-2008, 10:03 AM

Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?

Volo

03-01-2008, 10:06 AM

Thoughts on Nerwen by others.

Day1

In this vein, my first reaction to Nerwen's post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=548741&postcount=36)was "wolf!" but I think it might be wise to try to look beyond what is apparently a bias on my part. If anyone's interested, it was the structure of her post -- banter, followed by a rather off-the-wall bit of wolf-strategy-theory, followed by a defense. Too people-pleasing, I thought, too cautious.

However, although that was my first reaction, I'm aware I have a tendency to always find Nerwen suspicious (and Durelin, and Aganzir... just laying my cards on the table), so, on second glance...Rikae finds Nerwen's first post suspicious, is uncertain and wary of Nerwen, later says that Nerwen is always suspicious to her.

Lommy, Mac and Lily find Nerwen Innocent (in that order) without appearant reason. (In the same contexts Lommy also thinks of Boro and Sally as Innocent; Lily thinks Rikae, later Sally and Lommy.)
However:Nerwen I used to think innocent, but her post about McCaber doesn't look good, very hasty actually. But then, a wolf might like to give her posts a more polished look.

Nogrod states that Nerwen's analyses are very roundabout. Is later uneasy about her, also about Volo, McCaber, The Ka and LG.

Durelin can't read Nerwen.

Conclusion:
Nerwen doesn't jump out, is regarded quite Innocent.
I find Lommy's and Lily's trust rather too quick, possible Wolf connection.

I'll post this and move to Day2, in a shortend version, because time is running out.

I feel that there's something nasty about lynching Mac. More and more I feel like he's being framed.

Volo

03-01-2008, 10:06 AM

Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?

A Little Green has many names. That's one of them, devised by Mac.

Mithalwen

03-01-2008, 10:08 AM

Thanks Volo....

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 10:10 AM

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

Look, I said before that there's nothing much to go on with her– it's more of a general bad feeling she's giving me, as if she's making sure she never says anything definite. I don't know.

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis.

I have no idea what to say to that, Volo, except that it wasn't.

Nogrod

03-01-2008, 10:27 AM

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.Being right when looking backwards to people's votes, arguments and "hunches" isn't actually a sign of an innocent. Remember that the wolves can be right 100% if they wish - and the situation allows them to do it. When a wolf "gets something wrong" it's always deliberate but innocents need to guess and argue on premises they're not sure if they are correct with interpretations they can't be sure.

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

Looking at other candidates then as well.

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.

Of others I'm still a bit uneasy - or at least a bit confused - with Volo as he both turns up in all those "cross-listings" of mine (Gwathwagon and "let's not lynch Boro" - btw. alongside Mac) and because of his marked going to and fro with the two aforementioned. He says that he thought Nerwen wolfy yesterDay but not toDay (did he say he thought Nerwen was suspicios to him in the first place?) but then again turns a round in his latest posts, he agrees Mac felt bad yesterDay but yet turns it around as well.

The one also popping up in my "cross-listings" in both categories is Mith with whom I'm in total darkness right now. I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch. Now Mac is there with two hits - and the others are Volo and Mith. I'd say one of them is a wolf and am inclined to vote Mac toDay for reasons stated above and earlier.

Okay. I need to go and continue in the kitchen... but I will be back later.

EDIT: X'd with everything the last half an hour (beginning from Rikae)

Volo

03-01-2008, 10:28 AM

Nerwen, Day2

Rikae is the first to mention Nerwen (except for Ka, but Ka's post was irrelevent). She finds Nerwen less and less sincere.

Mac finds her Innocent enough, although less so after Volo's #206.

Lommy thinks of Nerwen as the only Innocentish person.

Lily finds Nerwen and Ka Innocent.

Volo suspects Nerwen, reasons (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549113&postcount=206).

Durelin finds Nerwen's vote for Volo too easy, as Menel's vote for McCaber.

Nogrod: "I never seem to be able to suspect her but after Volo's point about her over-carefulness I'd say she needs to be looked at."

Conclusion: Lommy and Lily find her Innocent. Rikae continues suspecting her. Durelin is wary. Volo suspects, Nogrod and Mac become wary.
I'm trying to find out Nerwen's possible contacts to others and if she is being framed. I can't say that I'm making much progress - I said summaries aren't too useful :rolleyes:.
Lommy and Lily look most suspicious out of these.

On to Day3 - the whole picture might show something.

EDIT: Xd with Nogrod

Mithalwen

03-01-2008, 10:39 AM

In case I can't get back (I may be able to but the library slinging me off in a few minutes) I am going to vote then explain based on my rereading of the first days and hoping Rikae's instincts are right.

++ Macalaure

sorry son.....

Mithalwen

03-01-2008, 10:42 AM

Reasons in brief:

Nerwen pointed out that gifteds can be useful. While I know it should make the ordos work I wonder if there was an element of gloating on page one. Nogrod and Mac seemed particularly happy about it . Both would be likely early dream choices had we a seer.

Mac raised suspicion of Nog after he had posted once. Not a bad wolf trick since it is seldom impossible to make Nogrod look suspicious. tbc if possible

Volo

03-01-2008, 10:44 AM

Day3

Durlin finds Nerwen's and Lommy's votes too easy.

Nogrod analyses her. So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?I don't quite understand this, I'll (finally) go through Menel after I've had dinner.

Volo suspects her and makes a big deal with going through this.

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.Links Nerwen's possible guilt with Mac's. You know, I'm beginning to suspect Nogrod a bit, he has been hiding a lot of his thoughts it seems and agreeing with people only after they have posted first. If Mac is lynched and is Innocent, I would make a connection between Nerwen and Nogrod.

Final conclution after dinner, before Menel.

EDIT: Xd with Mith.

Volo

03-01-2008, 10:46 AM

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 10:57 AM

Little question here, Volo. You find me suspicious for being careful– but Durelin innocent for the same reason? Huh?

Volo suspected me after I voted him yesterDay. Then toDay, after I said I was less sure he was gulity, and after I mildly defended Mac, he backed off.

Then just recently he again finds me wolfish– after I voiced suspicions of Mac and Durelin.

Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)

Thinlómien

03-01-2008, 11:05 AM

Quick post before I continue Macalysis...

#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”Actually I was commenting the overall paranoia.

What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.Agreed. I'm aware of my playing style. Why? I don't know. I could give you a list of rather insignificant reasons (like "I was a wolf in the last game and now I'm enjoying the plain craziness of being an ordo" or "people accused me based on my playing style very early on so I had to pay attention to it") but I doubt you'd buy it because even I don't totally believe those are the reasons why.

Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.I was not fishing for pity. I don't think I need pity. I don't suffer from being confused. I might sound careless but I actually partly enjoy being confused, especially now as I'm beginning to be what a certain person is hiding so I'm not confused about everything. :p Lastly, I was just pointing out the thing that seemed like a difference between the four of you and myself. If I actually was drowning in self-pity, I would not compare myself with ww masterminds like you at all...

If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves.I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am.... :p Also, I hope I don't really give an impression to be like that because I consider myself a pretty straightforward person and if I'd want to get rid of somebody I'd build the cases myself, trust me. Now, I'm off to comment on some actions of yours... *whistles in a carefree manner*

Seriously, yes, I'm going to complete my analysis now but I'm afraid it will end up rather biased because Macalaure screams a wolf to me. His points against me are weak and it looks like he's just demonstarting to me that he actually dares to attack and vote me unlike I claimed. I think it's very improbable that I'll end up voting anyone else but I'll just complete the analysis for the sake of being just and finishing things I've started. Maybe I'll even be surprised... :p

Oh, and as a parting shot i'd like to say that Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing... but I suspect him less than I used to.

edit: xed with Nerwen

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 11:09 AM

Ironically, the fact that Nerwen seems to find no fault with Lommy at all makes me feel better about her. Any wolf would have sown at least some suspicion into it.

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Summaries are an utter waste of time to do or read - as long as they don't contain analysis. I've come to think that analyses tell you very little about the analysed person, but a lot about the analyser him/herself. It's not easy to fake an entire analysis without letting your fangs shine through. I'm eagerly awaiting Lommy's analysis of me for that reason.

It's good to see some people suspect Durelin. And at least Volo has an open eye for Lommy and Lily. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see why everybody else is so quick to say Lommy is just Lommy. Apart from other suspicious things she did, she's been telling people she's playing the way she always does at least five times or so! A wolf wouldn't do that, you say? Please tell me why an ordo would! Once or twice I wouldn't call suspicious, but that often? Come on.

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted. I agree that her behaviour feels innocent, but I'm not entirely certain. She fooled me before. Nogrod, I hope this is not too personal, but are sure you're not overestimating your ability to read Lommy, too? :(

Btw, I think it's unwise of you to let Durelin and Lily drop off your radar.

I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch.

I heard my father tell a tale of the time when he was insignificantly younger than I am now. It taught me never to underestimate the confusability of ordos.

I'm sorry, but I have to say that, now looking at Mith's reasons for her vote, I think I haven't received so many bad-reasoned votes in over 15 villages than in this one here. :(

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 11:19 AM

Damn.... Lommy's last post actually sounds convincingly innocent. I hope her analysis of me will be really ugly and contrived, otherwise I might have to humble myself and take my suspicion back. I had a feeling it might be a bad idea to vote you so early. Why did you dare me to act on my suspicion just before?

I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am.... :pI'm very sorry if I appear like I do that, because I honestly don't. If I would've thought that plan to be a stupid one, I wouldn't have suspected you to have planned it. :)

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 11:24 AM

I had a feeling it might be a bad idea to vote you so early.

Well, then, why did you do it?

I don't know what to think now. After your last couple of posts you're starting to look less guilty... but I really don't think Lommy's a wolf.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 11:24 AM

Mac and Durelin analysis (My RL fiance and in-game spouse. Traitors...)

---- Day 1 ----
Durelin's post #37:

Just seems Nogrod and Boro and Mac and...who else in this game likes all that analyizing stuff?...haven't gotten quite warmed up yet for anything too lengthy, anyway,

Macalaure did rather jump on her, but he's just as young and hasty.

Okay, so she mentions Mac in connection with two other people, grouping them together but not in an accusatory context, then does one of these “accuse/absolve” things with Mac. So far, so... bad.

-- no mention of each other for a while, until Durelin's post #82:

I agree Gwathagor and Mac have been a little...defensive? It's really okay, Mac, I was just looking for something to say.

Then she says that Rikae, Menel and Sally worry her the most.

This is interesting, because although she is agreeing with a suspicion of Mac, she lumps him together with Gwath (rather dismissive – she isn't focusing attention on either) and then ignores him. It could definitely be a wolf acknowledging, but subtly downgrading, suspicions towards a packmate.

Mac in post 104:

Rikae looks innocentish. So do Lily and Durelin.

Whoa... alarm bells. Very dismissive, off hand... and could definitely be a case of hiding a fellow wolf in a group. He doesn't even bother to say “Rikae, Lily and Durelin look innocent” -- he singles me out, then tacks them on, making them seem even less noticable. I don't like it.

Dury's post 113:
Mac's last post seems sensible - a little hesitant, but we all are on Day 1

That could come from the textbook on “How to mention your packmates”

Dury's post 133, after voting for McCaber:
I do want to know what's up with Macalaure and Boro, though. As Lommy just pointed out about Mac's last post, both of them seem to be posting about themselves a lot

Again the combo rather than direct focus on Mac. In fact, it could almost be seen as a warning “hey! Mac! What are you thinking? You're talking about yourself too much!”

----- Day 2 -----

Mac's post 152:
I feel good / a little better about the people who have suspected Sally yesterDay (Nogrod, Durelin, Rikae), because to them she could have served as a future lynch candidate.

Looks innocent enough, but now I have to wonder if this came up in the nightly discussion – Durelin pointing out that Sally might make a good lynch candidate, before the pack eventually decided to kill her. Still, it could just as well be solely the product of Mac's own reasoning. At any rate, he lets Dury off the hook.

Mac's post 165:
Durelin and Nogrod start the counter-waggon, which is innocent-looking.

Durelin's post 176:
Mac also bothers me. He could have just voted for Lommy if he really wanted to make a statement, instead of just off-handedly wishing she was a lynch-candidate. But that would stand out more.

(Nothing I can see in the above two posts either supports or works against the possibility of them being wolves together)

Mac's post 183:
Of Durelin I'm not sure.

This shift comes after Durelin has said Mac “bothers” her, and Rikae and Lommy have voiced some suspicion of Durelin. Not sure what to make of that.

Durelin's post 213:
Hmm...Mac is still posting defenses of himself and Boro is convinced the wolves are setting him up, messing with his mind. Yes, both have gotten quite a bit of attention, but they seem to be harping on it a bit...but I don't know if that's particularly wolfish or not. Overly defensive? Maybe. Trying too much to look like they're shrugging it off? Maybe.

Wishy-washy and I could see it coming from a wolf...
He is a little defensive, but not wanting to die isn't necessarily a sinister desire. And he's not he only one into himself.

Now, this is kind of fishy (mostly because an ordo really shouldn't be too worried about dying)
She also says Mac gives her a creepy feeling, but also says the same thing about Nogrod, Rikae, and Lommy.
Dury's post 214:
Ah, I just realized - my "similar bad feelings about Mac" statement means that I have similar bad feelings about Mac as A Little Green does, not about Little Green...make sense? Maybe? Oh well.

I wonder whether a wolf would draw further attention to her companion with this correction. Maybe she would if she already decided he was doomed, and wanted to be sure her suspicions of him were clearly on the record, though. I don't know.

Mac's post 220:
This leaves Durelin (who I have no idea about), Boro, Menel and Lommy.

Like in 183, he seems to be singling Durelin out for a special level of confusing-ness. This is odd, considering he called her innocentish at the beginning of the day and gave no reason for the change... it looks overly cautious, but Mac should know better as wolf.

Durelin's post 226:
++Macalaure

Of the random voters for Gwathagor he worries me the most. Of course I don't feel good voting for the same person as Boro, but I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot, so what's the use spending another 40ish minutes on this...

Odd... don't know what else to say about it. It seems as if she's saying “don't take this too seriously”... if they were wolves together, at this point, it would be hard to tell whether Mac were really in danger of lynching or not... it would be a bold move.

--- Day 3 ---

Mac's post 276:

4. Durelin for meee!
Maybe others need to judge whether her reasoning was good or not. To me, it's bad, but I feel like I'm biased. The vote placement isn't worrying, I think.

Hmm, why not say it's bad and why it's bad?

Durelin's post 279:
First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally. I hope that I'm not playing dirty here...I really don't mean to...it's just a game, but...these things do come into play. (I made Cailin a wolf and Eomer an innocent in the game I modded and apparently Eomer had promised that he was not to ever vote for her...not that something like that necessarily applies at all!)

---- Off topic comment: Mac and I have no such agreement (obviously). The only agreement we have with relation to WW is not to discuss it outside the game (although it's true neither of us would be eager to lynch the other on Day 1 or, as a wolf, kill the other on Night 1)---

At any rate, an interesting way of casting suspicion on Mac but also not (she doesn't suggest, after all, that we're wolves *together*)

Mac's post 282:
Lommy flipflops about him like only Lommy can. It doesn't leave me with a good feeling. Durelin is also overly indecisive on Boro.

Strange. First off, he seems to say Lommy is suspicious for Lommyish behavior... secondly, here's another one of those “oh, and Durelin too” things.

Mac's post 283:
Durelin goes into a similar direction. I haven't been buddying up to Rikae. I think she's innocent, but that's all I said. Rikae doesn't seem to be sure what to do with me, defending me at one time and accusing me at another. The latter makes no sense if she wanted to buddy up to me.

Self defense, no counterattack.

You agree with Rikae and me about Lily, but you think our cases make no sense? Then I suspect you have a case of your own that makes more sense? Share it, please. ;)

“Durelin, you made a mistake, now fix it before anybody else notices ;)”?

Durelin's post 299:
Mac - You caught me being sloppy twice. I didn't explain my whole 'buddying up' thing very well, and really that's a pretty bad name for it. Part of what I thought was so odd was how back and forth Rikae was about you, either defending you and jumping on Little Green's vote against you, or calling you a wolf. Huh, I guess looking back it was more Rikae who made you two seem odd in that way than you

“Ooops, thanks for pointing that out, comrade. I'll just take the opportunity to move suspicion away from you now...”?

Mac's post 305:
I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

Actually, the above looks sincere and innocentish to me. The last sentence is slightly eyebrow-raising, though...

Mac's post 312:
However, I'm sure nearly beyond doubt that Lommy, Durelin, and Lily are our wolves. This makes me less afraid of being lynched myself, because in that case you will have the benefit of knowing this opinion is honest.

This also looks fairly honest, which raises my doubts about Mac being a wolf. However, if he is a wolf, putting a fellow wolf on his top suspects list at this point would be the thing to do, anyway.

EDIT: Quote tags! Where did they go?

Volo

03-01-2008, 11:35 AM

Drat! I deleted my post by mistake! :mad:

Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)It is possible, yet no more than that.

Since you mention it, I think Mac's death would reveal the most toDay, but I'm afraid he's being framed. I have a feeling that everybody is happy to lynch him, which means that either he is Innocent or his partners have decided to abandon him - probably toDay.

Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing...Oh, come on, quit it.

Anyway:

Nogrod - Feels reluctant to suspect Nerwen fully, although he has been agreeing that she is too careful.
Rikae - The first to suspect Nerwen. Although somehow feels very undecisive.
Durelin - On Day1 says that she can't read Nerwen, on Days 2 and 3 she thinks that Nerwen's vote for Volo was too safe. Doesn't suspect her.
Mithalwen - Never even mentioned Nerwen - suspicious. Or is it what she does usually?
Macalaure - Finds her Innocent at first, but less so after #206. Quite suspicious, a sign of partnership?
Meneltarmacil - One comment, which I don't really understand.
Volo - Strong suspicion most of the time since Day2. Undecisive.
Thinlómien - Has regarded Nerwen Innocent from the very beginning, without much reason. Not a very safe thing to do.
A Little Green - Same as Lommy.

It's possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree as everybody is quite undecisive about Nerwen. Possible partnership with just about everybody. :(
Ok, Mac is the target of toDay's discussion - I'll move on to him after Menel, and a sauna. *sigh*

Xd with everything since #338.

Thinlómien

03-01-2008, 11:39 AM

To my best, I'll try to be objective and not to let the fact that I suspect Macalaure interfere. The cost of this is that - I predict - you have to bear with my flip-floppiness.

Now, let's begin

Day1

#14 The odd comment: "Sadly, this means that the innocent side, having me on their team, is severely handicapped." I still think there's something wrong with it. Casts suspicion on Nogrod, banters with Gwath. Nothing sinister in there, I think. You have to start suspicions early in order to get the game rolling.

#24 Replies to Lommy: answers her questions and returns her suspicions. Says she's too quick to accuse. Now this is rather weird. He's perfectly alright with throwing half-hearted Day1-suspicions at Nogrod, but when someone throws them at him, he says the person is too quick to accuse. Quite fishy, unless his accusation of Nogrod was really serious. Which would be quite fishy too, based on just one post.

#63 The infamous over-reacting statement: "A couple of hours into the game, and already everybody is talking about me..." Replies to Menel and says he mentioned Nogrod's suspicious behaviour because it was the only suspicious thing he could see at that point. Emphasises he didn't make a big deal out of it. Corrects Ka's quote. Agrees with Nerwen about THE Ka posting a lot with little substance. Banters with Rikae, says Nerwen strikes him as innocentish. Nothing wrong here in this post, except the beginning that - I think - has been discussed enough.

#92 Just says he's there and off to reread and nothing caught his eye this far.

#104 Says Boro seems innocent except he's a tad too authoritative and corrects him on the issue of Greenie's gender. Doesn't like Gwath's vote and thinks Boro has a point against him. "I used to agree with Boro on Menel - until I saw his vote. It looks to much like "let's start a bandwaggon against a widely suspected villager". But I guess I'm still overestimating the amount of attention given to me." Can't get a read on Sally, Volo and THE Ka. Has unspecific bad feelings about Lommy and Nogrod. On Nogrod: "I don't understand why I'm so suspicious to him, but I find the eagerness with which he pursues this suspicion worrisome." Flip-flops on Nerwen. Finds Rikae, Greenie and Dury innocentish, calls Mith and McCaber enigmas. Nothing actually wrong in here. But there's an eerie defensive feel in this post that I can't explain. Granted, an innocent might be a bit defensive when faced with the amount of suspicion there was against Mac at this point but a) there was not that much suspicion and b) Mac seems to try to hide his nervousness/defensiveness, which looks quite wolves. Now you may think I'm grasping at straws here or making mountains out of molehills but that's just the feeling I get.

#118 Answers Nogrod's accuations of him and suspects him in return. Now, I don't think retaliatory suspicion like this is necessary wolvish, on the contrary. Also, some of his posts are quite good. But why to post this 10 minutes before the deadline and start with "I don't expect he's going to be lynched today, but here's a bit about Nogrod", when it obviously was more about him himself?

#129 Posts a vote tally. Would like to give Gwath another Day but would not like to see Boro go either and says he has no idea for a last-minute counter-wagon. (Situation was Gwath 4, Boro 2, Mac 1.) Doesn't like the Day's voting. Nothing wrong in here, I think, except possibly the fact that he had suspected Gwath earlier. But I actually acted the same way towards McCaber the next Day, so it is not necessarily sinister.

#140 Votes Gwath, although he'd prefer voting Lommy. Since Gwath was to die anyway, why not to vote me and make an actual statement of it?

#142 "Where did the Caber-waggon come from?" An interesting question.

Day2

#152 Is surprised of sally's death. Summarises what sally did on day1. Also summarises other people's stances towards her. Says sally's death was probably in order not to leave tracks and it points towards careful wolves. Aks if the wolves are careful because they ahve been under a lot of pressure or because they are cold-blooded. Now this looks quite innocent, given that Mac himself was under pressure the Day before. "What I don't understand is: Why pick a no-trailer who causes confusion when other, less confusing, no-trailers are there to choose from. Maybe they thought her death would cause sufficient confusion, more than anybody else's death." "Both Boro voters are dead now. Does this point towards him being a wolf? I don’t think so." Is not sure of what to make of Boro's certainity about sally's innocence. "I feel good / a little better about the people who have suspected Sally yesterDay (Nogrod, Durelin, Rikae), because to them she could have served as a future lynch candidate. I also think better of THE Ka, because she said she enjoyed Sally's posts and it would be cold-blooded indeed to kill her after that." Ok, the first point is valid while the second is not, like I already said earlier. If Mac's a wolf, I'd consider looking at Dury, Noggie and Rikae, that would be a convenient way for a fellow wolf to make them look better without being easily tracked.

#155 Jokes to Mith. I'd actually like to think him innocent simply because I laughed so much at this post. :D

#165 Analyses votes: mildly defends Rikae's vote, says Menel's and McCaber's are suspicious, Boro's and Greenie's neutral, Volo's confused, Dury's and Nog's innocent, Mith's would be bad if Boro was a wolf and Lommy's a "risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't." Nothing odd here, I guess, except the last phrase spotted by Greenie. Like I and Rikae have said, it indeed could be that he knew that McC was innocent and slipped here. I'm not too sure anyway...

#169 Speculates about Mith's relation to Boro. Concludes "There's the possibility that you're evil and trying to get the trust of Bordomir, but I think there are better leads to follow at the moment." I see nothing bad here, but neither it is particularily innocentish.

#183 Summarises his feelings about people, says he's quite confused. Innocentish: Rikae, Nerwen, THE Ka, Little Green, puzzled/no idea: Durelin, Mith, Volo, Lommy, vague bad feelings: Nog, Boro, Menel is his would-be-main-suspect " but there's something telling me I'm getting something wrong there." His indecidedness in this post was the main reason of me thinking him innocent at one phase. Clearly a wolf would make up some suspicions as people who don't say anything on anybody are often accused of wolfishness. But I wouldn't put it past Mac that he was double-bluffing... "Maybe it's because we don't have a seer that nobody is acting really nervous. Maybe the benefit of the seer is not only in his actual dreams, but also in the pressure he puts on the wolves indirectly." Good observation.

#209 Explains his words about my vote for McCab. In my opinion, he does it convincingly, just like I predicted he would. Also explains why he did not vote me although he'd have preferred that. Nothing bad in here.

#220 Talks about people, ends up stating almost everybody looks more or less innocent except Boro, Lommy and Menel. Now this I find quite wolvish... How can he feel so good about everybody?

#234 "What I don't like about voting Boro, is his edginess. The Borowolves I remember all "looked fairer". His actions today look quite bad, but I feel like buying his frustration. I actually happen to share it." Actually, looks quite innocent.

#238 Posts a vote tally, does not like the way it's going (Mac 2, Volo 2, Caber 1, Boro 1, Rikae 1). Of course he doesn't because he's in danger of getting lynched...

#242 "*takes A Little Green off his list of innocents*" Yes, her vote was A Little Fishy.

#246 "What really makes me feel bad about those who are voting me, is that not one of them has a good reason behind it." If we can take Rikae's word of it (which I'm inclined to do because it fits my picture of how Mac is), this looks quite wolvish. Whatever the case, it doesn't look particularily innocentish anyway.

#250 "I feel better about McCaber than I feel about Boro, but an innocent Boro would be a graver loss than an innocent McCaber (no offense )." Now, making way for the caberwagon... I don't like this...

#252 (In response to Rikae calling his statement in #246 wolvish) "How so? I just want to make sure that those who voted me get their share of attention toMorrow, in case I die." I'd like to call that wolvish but maybe I can't jump on everything he says just because I suspect him...

#256 "I could vote for Menel, too, if sufficient support is given. I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber since I just realised it was Menel who gave him his one vote. Boro? Menel? Or maybe McCaber? I don't want to have to vote Volo to have a chance to save myself." Didn't he just say he would not like to vote Boro?

#261 A vote tally. Calls Lommy's vote suspicious. Not much to comment.

#267 "I'd clearly prefer voting McCaber over voting Volo."

#269 Votes McCaber.

I don't have time to analyse his actions toDay and I think I remember them well enough: they are very wolvish. I will hang around here 'til deadline, but I might as well vote now and have it done so we three here on the same computer won't fight for the keyboard in the late minutes. I don't know how much I even can post from now on since I've posted the most of the three of us toDay...

++Macalaure

edit: xed with everybody who posted after my last post... I almost regret voting Mac simply because he started being so nice... ;)

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 11:48 AM

Drat! I deleted my post by mistake! :mad:

Originally Posted by Nerwen
Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)

It is possible, yet no more than that.

What do you mean? You ARE Volo!:confused:

Did you just confess?

Rikae

03-01-2008, 11:50 AM

I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted.

I suppose that could be. I'm anxious to test it and see whether it works this time or not, actually.
On the other hand, I hate to lynch you -- I wouldn't enjoy it even if I was 100% certain you were a wolf... :(

EDIT: X'd with Volo, Lommy & Nerwen. What the....?

Meneltarmacil

03-01-2008, 11:52 AM

++Macalaure

He's voted in major bandwagons before, I've suspected him when he cast suspicion for little reason on Day 1, and if Rikae has a bad feeling about him, she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)

Meneltarmacil

03-01-2008, 11:54 AM

Gaaaa! Wait, Volo saying it's possible that he himself is a Wolf?

Well, that and his Ka-vote on Day One... He's definitely being quite the oddball this time, and I don't exactly know why.

Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 11:58 AM

I almost regret voting Mac simply because he started being so nice... ;)I have a strong feeling many people are going to regret their votes of toDay soon - me not the least. Sorry about that. I never voted anybody like that, but you dared me to be sincere with my former suspicion of you...

I second Nerwen. Volo, what was that?

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 12:01 PM

No, they're not.

Now I have to think what this means.

Is Volo just being weird again for the hell of it? Did he accidentally confess to being a wolf? Did he intentionally confess? If he's a wolf, does that mean I was right about Volo-Mac-Durelin, or is he doing what Rikae did last game and fake-defending them?

Anyway–

++Volo.

I can't let that go.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:03 PM

:rolleyes:
Mac starts looking innocentish after I vote for him, and then Volo basically admits to being a wolf. Of course.

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:03 PM

*sigh* The sauna was messed up and although I'm pessimistic about this game, I'm here again.

Really, you aren't being helpful, Nerwen and even more, Menel. Of course I don't claim myself to be a Wolf. Is there any possible reason for doing so? Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW.

Menel, you're being such a submarine... I can't imagine that you're Innocent and that uninterested.

Lommy's Macalysis is funny, she feels both defencive, appologetic and actually says more things that refer to Mac's Innocense than guilt. Oh well.

EDIT: Xd with everything since #348.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:05 PM

Gaaaa! Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

Nope, I'm afraid not.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:07 PM

This is so hilarious.

Five people have voted and four would already like to retract. :D

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:07 PM

Nerwen, you talk such nonsense that I will be offended if you're not a Wolf.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:09 PM

Of course I don't claim myself to be a Wolf. Is there any possible reason for doing so? Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW..

Except that, presumably, you actually know your own role... :p

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:11 PM

Oh well, there's no other option. No way can anybody but Mac be lynched toDay. Might as well be him, although this is such a mess that anybody here can be a Wolf.

++Macalaure

Do remind me not to join games without Gifteds in the future, this is depressing.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:11 PM

Actually, though, I suppose I could see Volo saying what he said innocently (from the perspective of the rest of the village). Bah.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:16 PM

So, Mac, what are you?

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:19 PM

Except that, presumably, you actually know your own role... :p
Yes, but from your perspective it is still just as possible, unless you're a Wolf. *shrug*

Making a slip in a situation like that would need something even I don't posess.

1) One could have misread the three names, not noticing his own name.

2) One might have tried to say that, of course, the combination is possible and the only way to prove it otherwise to everyone is for one of the players to die.

3) It could have been an intentional revelation, but why so vague and why did the person then deny it as soon as he was asked.

4) It could have been a slip. The person automatically connected his own name to a Wolf. This would need the person to go out of himself and look at the game from a perspective of a mod, or something. Not only! That would also mean that the two other players (Durelin and Mac) are Wolves, because otherwise it can't be a slip because the player doesn't know the roles of the other players.

I must say that we encountered a rather amusing half-a-paradox.

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:20 PM

:D I love this game.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:23 PM

So, Mac, what are you?

You expect me to tell you and spoil the fun? :p

Meneltarmacil

03-01-2008, 12:23 PM

Yes, Volo, I see what you mean. In the absence of a Seer, every little comment can be jumped on for maximum value due to us having no solid leads.

EDIT: X-posted with Mac.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 12:24 PM

I believe Volo's was a killing vote.

Mac, seems you just died. Are you a wolf?

I fear not– that last post of Volo's looks awfully gloating.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:26 PM

I believe Volo's was a killing vote.

Mac, seems you just died. Are you a wolf?

I fear not– that last post of Volo's looks awfully gloating.

I believe Mac has 5 votes and Volo one, with four players left to vote... so if they're all around,.... "it's possible"... Volo could be lynched.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:26 PM

Mac, seems you just died. Are you a wolf?

Don't you know that? ;)

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:27 PM

You expect me to tell you and spoil the fun? :p

A Wolf, otherwise you would have been nicer. :)

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:27 PM

No, that's right -- only three haven't voted, I think.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:27 PM

You expect me to tell you and spoil the fun? :p

I hate you.

Expect to be punished for this... :mad:

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:27 PM

I fear not– that last post of Volo's looks awfully gloating.
Oh but that it is! I just managed to prove that I'm right and it couldn't have been an unintential slip.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:28 PM

A Wolf, otherwise you would have been nicer. :)

I'm usually especially nice when I'm a wolf.

Usually... :smokin:

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:30 PM

On Menel. I don't think he's a Wolf, because Mac is obviously one. Menel pretty much suspected only Mac most of the time, a bit too bold, if you ask me. Then again, he might have gotten lessons from Nogrod on how to lynch a partner. :rolleyes: :p :D

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:30 PM

I'm usually especially nice when I'm a wolf.

Usually... :smokin:

Next week, you can sleep in the back yard. There's a nice, soft snowbank out there. Germans make good candy, so maybe they make good popsicles, too?

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:32 PM

mmmm....popsicles :)

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:33 PM

*buys a cat o' nine tails*

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 12:38 PM

Mac, do you seriously mean to make us wait half an hour until the DL?

I hope Rikae has a strong arm.

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:39 PM

Yeah, it is confirmed. I talked with Aganzir and she said that Mac is a Wolf. :)

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:39 PM

There's it.

You got me.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:40 PM

Those wolfish features I mentioned in my vote-post do not belong on an ordo -- ergo, if they are there, they need to be removed...

EDIT: X'd with Volo and Mac. So, I have too much confidence in my gut feelings, eh?

A Little Green

03-01-2008, 12:40 PM

*phew*

Huh, I'm back. This is nerve-wrecking.

Volo is very confusing. What is this Nerwen-obsession of his? I can't follow his logic on people's attitude about her at all (the more you suspect Nerwen the more innocent you look). I would like an explanation from him before I conclude on whether it's wolvish or merely odd. :p

Lommy's frequent repetition of her playing style bothers me, but otherwise she looks genuine. "I only behave like this when I'm innocent, therefore I can't be a wolf" is not what I'd call a valid argument. It's ok if you say it once or so, but Lommy has been repeating it more than is necessary (I'm not sure whether that argument is ever necessary).

I'm now more convinced than ever that Mac is a wolf. Therefore,

++Mac

Sorry to have been so uncontributing toDay. I promise to be more active toMorrow.

EDIT: x-ed with everything on this page

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:43 PM

Mac, you're lucky -- because if you had humiliated me by being an ordo... *brandishes knife*

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:44 PM

I'm now more convinced than ever that Mac is a wolf. Therefore,

++Mac

Oh, that's priceless. :D

A Little Green

03-01-2008, 12:44 PM

Hee hee I was right!!! :D

Just tell me one thing, Mac... Was the quote I spotted really a slip?

Volo

03-01-2008, 12:45 PM

Oh no! Lily! You missed to mention your 100th post!! Congratulations!

Now, :smokin:

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 12:46 PM

There's it.

You got me.

Well, that's a relief. :) I thought we were never going to get one.

But then, what's Volo up to? (I'm asking everyone else, not you, Mac.) Surely he must be a wolf, after the things he said?

EDIT: X'd with everyone since Rikae at #378.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:46 PM

Just want to say this in case I don't survive --
take a good look at Dury tomorrow, folks.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:50 PM

But then, what's Volo up to? (I'm asking everyone else, not you, Mac.) Surely he must be a wolf, after the things he said?

I'd say it's possible he isn't. :smokin:
Volo has a way of wording things oddly, after all, and could have been speaking from the perspective of the rest of the village. Still, if Durelin's a wolf...

EDIT: Added bolding

Meneltarmacil

03-01-2008, 12:50 PM

I wouldn't exactly count on that. As I've said earlier toDay, both of them are unlikely to be wolves together, since they voted for the exact same people on Day 1 (Gwathagor) and Day 2 (McCaber). Unless this is some complicated form of double-bluffing, I don't thnk the wolves would do something like that.

Durelin

03-01-2008, 12:51 PM

What be...happening? Wow, I thought the votes would be a lot more spread out toDay... Ooh, and I'm *creepy*... :cool:

Sorry, I had a busier morning than I expected. So I have like...15 minutes to make up my mind?

Guess I'll have to just vote for my 'comrade in wolfyness'. :rolleyes:

++Macalaure

If we're wrong, we're pretty screwed. And Rikae's going to be busy. If we're right, I might actually give Rikae the benefit of the doubt for once. Maybe... *shifty eye movement*

Edit: Crossed with a lot of people... Rather boring confession, Mac. :p

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:51 PM

But then, what's Volo up to? (I'm asking everyone else, not you, Mac.) Surely he must be a wolf, after the things he said?
*answers anyway*

He's a wolf, too, obviously. :p

Rikae

03-01-2008, 12:53 PM

Nerwen's a bit creepy these last few minutes.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:56 PM

Obviously, I only admitted to be a wolf in order to see the reactions. I'm really an ordo, sorry for messing with your minds. I hope that knife is at least sharp. :eek:

It's a pity Lily and Durelin have been rather quiet toDay. I wish I would have some new things to go at with them. The two are my main suspects next to the confessing Volo (asked Aganzir? Riiiiight).
(However, while Lily's vote post looks quite bad, her following post looks innocentish. If she was bad, why should she ask this?)
(Durelin's comment on Rikae, on the other hand, looks extremely wolvish, if you ask me)

I think Nerwen, Rikae and Lommy are innocent.

In case I'm wrong somewhere, I'd say that especially Nogrod, but also Menel and Mith could be a wolf.

I'm quite annoyed of myself that I went after Lommy like I did. Overconfidence that occurs when suddenly everything seems to make sense to you.

Macalaure

03-01-2008, 12:57 PM

Nerwen's a bit creepy these last few minutes.Could you explain? I'd hate to call someone innocent who maybe isn't.

Nogrod

03-01-2008, 12:57 PM

Never try to play a game with three people sharing one computer... :rolleyes:

But as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...

++ Macalaure

But that done I must say I'm not at all too happy with this whole thing. There were too many easy bandwaggonings toDay and I must agree with Volo that I do not like it. With the unanimous decision the fellows have just slipped in to join.

And to make things harder I must say that Nerwen's vote for Volo looks pretty suspicious as a kind of self-confident wolf-move disassociating herself from the wagon on a fellow... and thence claiming individual reasoning outside the madness when we toMorrow start searching for the ones joining the wagon with bad or non-believable reasons... :confused:

That just because I see at the moment Volo more as weird than a wolf. I mean I don't get half of the points he makes and his "confessions" look just too attention-calling that no wolf would do that... or then would... OMG.

EDIT: X'd from Menel onwards...

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 12:59 PM

Obviously, I only admitted to be a wolf in order to see the reactions. I'm really an ordo, sorry for messing with your minds. I hope that knife is at least sharp. :eek:

Are you serious?

Durelin

03-01-2008, 12:59 PM

Uh oh...Mac, I feel more sorry for you than this village. :eek:

Nogrod

03-01-2008, 01:00 PM

Oh my.

If what Mac says is true (it has no bearing at the moment to fool us) do look also at Rikae and Lommy toMorrow if I'm not around...

Aganzir

03-01-2008, 01:00 PM

Deadline.

You have killed Macalaure.

Rikae

03-01-2008, 01:00 PM

That is going too far.

EDIT: Crossed with everybody since my ex's post.

Nerwen

03-01-2008, 01:03 PM

Everyone, if Mac is telling the truth now– lynch Volo tomorrow. I don't care how metaphysical he gets this time.

EDIT: X'd with lots of people.

Aganzir

03-01-2008, 01:45 PM

This day, the beggars were almost unanimous that Macalaure the Guileless was an evil werewolf.

”Yes, he is guilty,” said Lommy. ”If he was innocent, he would surely know better than to suspect me!”

”Aye, he is guilty,” said Rikae, ”but I still have this inexplicable feeling that Lommy and Durelin are somehow laughing inwardly when they speak.”

”This whole thing makes me feel so pessimistic,” sighed Volo.

”This Volo makes my head ache,” sighed Lommy.

”That's not important. Shouldn't we kill Mac now?” asked Nogrod.

”What shall we do to him?” inquired Greenie.

”I know! We can play snow war against him!” said Menel.

”What a sweet idea,” exclaimed Mith. ”It's so nice that you kids want to play with each other even in this horrible situation.”

The beggars went out then, but even Mac, who had rejoiced for the new clothes, found them eventually too gruesome to put on. They started to make snowballs in the darkening evening. But although Mac had much experience of both making and throwing them, he stood alone against nine.

Menel was the first to throw a snowball at him. It hit him on the forehead.

”Are you going to confess?” asked Durelin.

”You expect me to tell and spoil the fun?” cried Mac and threw a snowball at her.

”I love this!” exclaimed Volo when he threw a snowball. ”There's a voice in my head that says we're right about Mac!”
He was lying, naturally. Sometimes he liked to invent all kinds of things, imaginative friends and all, to appear cooler. But his words had effect anyway. More and more snowballs were flying towards Mac.

The war was short but furious. The beggars didn't suffer any losses nor was anyone wounded, and eventually Mac ran out of snowballs. Then the beggars charged. They kept bombing Mac until he was lying on the ground, bruised and bleeding. Mith dropped her last snowball on his head. That was enough. He made a rattling sound and closed his eyes.

But, as on so many days before, his body remained unchanged. They had killed already three of their innocent little children with their own very hands.

**

Alive:
Nogrod the Agreeable, the leader of the beggars
his wife, Nerwen
elderly couple; Rikae the Kind
and Durelin
Mithalwen the Perpetually Sane and Serene, Boro's widow
their child Meneltarmacil
Volo, a young widowed man
orphaned little Thinlómien
and her little sister A Little Green

Dead:
Tom Bombadil (ranger) - killed on Night 1
Goldberry (seer) - killed on Night 1
The Barrow-wight (hunter) - killed on Night 1
Gwathagor, the child of Nogrod and Nerwen (ordo) - used as a battering ram on Day 1
Sally the Insufferable, a slightly mad crippled woman (ordo) - skinned, scalped and made to clothes on Night 2
the Right Honourable McCaber, Volo's child (ordo) - drowned in the Withywindle on Day 2
THE Ka, a blind old woman (ordo) - poisoned with carbon monoxide & throat slit open on Night 3
Boromir88 the Silent One, Mith's husband, Mac & Menel's father, an ex-pickpocket (ordo) - accused unjustly and carried away against his will by annoying trees at the beginning of Day 3
Macalaure the Guileless, Mith & Boro's son (ordo) - fell in snowball fight on Day 3

It is now night 4. Wolves may kill. No posting here.

Aganzir

03-02-2008, 01:00 PM

Once upon a time there was dear little girl who was loved by everyone who looked at her, but most of all by her elder sister, and there was nothing that she would not have given to the child. Once she gave her a little cap of green velvet, which suited her so well that she would never wear anything else; so she was always called 'Little Green-Cap.'

One day their parents died and left them to survive as they best could. At first they thought they were doomed to die, but before long they discovered that some beggars were living in the mounds of the Barrow-downs, and decided to join them. But then came the Fell Winter, and the beggars didn't have enough to eat. A beautiful wolf came and invited them to come to the house of Tom Bombadil for some days, and they accepted her offer.

**

One night Little Green-Cap woke up feeling very thirsty. ”I suppose I need a glass of water,” she thought and got up. But the bucket was empty, so she had to go to the river to fetch some water. She put on her little green cap and opened the door. Just as Little Green-Cap entered the wood, a wolf met her. Of course Green-Cap knew what a wicked creature he was, but when she heard his familiar voice, she was not at all afraid of him anymore.

”Good night, Little Green-Cap,” said he.

”Thank you kindly, wolf.”

”Whither away so late, Little Green-Cap?”

”To fetch some water to satisfy my thirst.”

The wolf thought to himself: ”What a tender young creature! What a nice plump mouthful – she will be better to eat than the old women were. I must act craftily.” So he walked for a short time by the side of Little Green-Cap, and then he said: ”See, Little Green-Cap, the road to the river is wild and long, but I know there is a barrel of beer just next to the house. Wouldn't you like it far better than water?”

”My sister doesn't like it if I drink beer, but surely she doesn't need to know, dear wolf?”

”No, she doesn't,” answered the wolf.

So, they turned back. Little Green-Cap found the barrel easily and spent a rather long time there. Meanwhile, the wolf ran straight to his fellows. They rummaged through Little Green-Cap's bag and found there a dress that used to belong to her mother. One of the wolves put it on and laid himself to her bed, the others hid themselves in the shadows near the bed.

When Little Green-Cap had drunk so much beer that she could drink no more, she made her way back to the house. She was surprised to find the door standing open, and when she went into the room, she had such a strange feeling that she said to herself: ”Oh dear! how uneasy I feel tonight.” She went to the bed. But it wasn't empty - there lay someone, dressed in her mother's clothes, her cap pulled far over her face, and looking very strange.

”Oh! mother,” she said, ”how have you come back from the dead? And what big ears you have!”

”The better to hear you with, my child,” was the reply. ”And surely you don't want to deprave your poor mother of all her secrets this early.”

”Of course not. But mother, what big eyes you have!” she said.

”The better to see you with, my dear.”

”But, mother, what large hands you have!”

”The better to hug you with.”

”Oh! but, mother, what a terrible big mouth you have!”

”The better to eat you with!”

And scarcely had the wolf said this, than with one bound he was out of bed and his fellows emerged from the shadows behind him, and they bit and clawed poor Green-Cap.

**

The red sun rises over manflesh in slices. A Little Green's body, or what is left of it, lies on the floor, the wooden planks around it wet and brown of her blood. The wolves had seemingly been having a feast.

”Poor little Greenie, woh ho
get back home,” sings Lommy sadly.

**

Alive:
Nogrod the Agreeable, the leader of the beggars
his wife, Nerwen
elderly couple; Rikae the Kind
and Durelin
Mithalwen the Perpetually Sane and Serene, Boro's widow
their child Meneltarmacil
Volo, a young widowed man
orphaned little Thinlómien

Dead:
Tom Bombadil (ranger) - killed on Night 1
Goldberry (seer) - killed on Night 1
The Barrow-wight (hunter) - killed on Night 1
Gwathagor, the child of Nogrod and Nerwen (ordo) - used as a battering ram on Day 1
Sally the Insufferable, a slightly mad crippled woman (ordo) - skinned, scalped and made to clothes on Night 2
the Right Honourable McCaber, Volo's child (ordo) - drowned in the Withywindle on Day 2
THE Ka, a blind old woman (ordo) - poisoned with carbon monoxide & throat slit open on Night 3
Boromir88 the Silent One, Mith's husband, Mac & Menel's father, an ex-pickpocket (ordo) - accused unjustly and carried away against his will by annoying trees at the beginning of Day 3
Macalaure the Guileless, Mith & Boro's son (ordo) - fell in snowball fight on Day 3
A Little Green, Lommy's little sister (ordo) - deceived by a big bad wolf and eaten on Night 4

It is now Day 4. Wolves stop PMing. Start talking.

Meneltarmacil

03-02-2008, 01:05 PM

Macalaure, how dare ye!

Volo

03-02-2008, 01:23 PM

Nogrod - Suspicious for not shouting all the time, but rather following from behind.
Nerwen - Suspicious for being careful and her tone after 1) my Day1 vote, 2) "confession" 3) "proof about Mac's guilt" doesn't feel genuine. Her last post yesterDay looks dangerous. What we can't do toDay is start a mindless bandwagon, because I bet that it will go wrong.
Rikae - For being wrong about Mac. No, actually Rikae is the one I don't find too suspicious.
Durelin - For being right and careful. Also her #388 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549459&postcount=388) is terribly Wolf-like. The third sentence is of a surprised Wolf's.
Mithalwen - For being alive. She should have been killed for leaving no trails, or less than Lily - unless the Wolves are such that don't want to kill good ol' Mith, but rather the newer players.
Meneltarmacil - For being careful. Though I think there are better suspects around.
Thinlómien - For going on too much about being nervous as a Wolf and how Macalaure usually spots her as a Wolf and so on. Not my first target, though.

Huh, doesn't lead far. :/

If I have to throw names then probably Dury, Mith or/and Nerwen. Maybe Nogrod.

Volo

03-02-2008, 01:26 PM

Thinlómien

03-02-2008, 01:37 PM

Oh dear. That narration was probably one of the most grotesque ones I've ever read. *shrugs*

I'm not surprised to see Greenie go. No one really suspected her and her death kind of fits the wolves' earlier tactic of seemingly killing the people who don't either talk or contribute very much (no offense to anyone here :)). My initial thought is that this would point at me, Nogrod or Rikae being a wolf as I think we are the sort of people who would advocate killing of the silent or the uncontributive ones. Now I know I'm not a wolf and Rikae looks quite sincere (not sure here though) so it would point at Nogrod, whom I've started suspecting anyway, mostly just based on a gut feeling and the sort of convenience of his playing style. But I'm relatively unsure of him so I don't think I'll vote him toDay as we really have to catch a wolf toDay in order not to lose.

This would lead me to the remaining villagers, namely Durelin and Nerwen. They seem the most suspicious. But Menel could be a wolf as well. I'm torn about Mith and Volo since they both seem very guilty and very innocent at the same time.

I'm just so confused, my main suspect was just lynched and proven innocent although he seemed so blatantly wolvish to me. (Although now afterwards I can look at things from a different perspective and his rash vote against me actually seems very innocent... :rolleyes: Poor Mac. My only comfort is that he was just as wrong about me as I was about him.)

I really need to think, reread and analyse. And I would ask everybody to post as much as they can and reveal as much of themselves as they can because it's going to be really crucial toDay...

edit: xed with Volo's two posts

Rikae

03-02-2008, 01:37 PM

I've pretty much lost the heart to play anymore. :(
If we lynch wrongly toDay, it's all over... but then, on the bright side, our chances of lynching a wolf are fairly high.
As I said yesterday, Durelin looks the worst to me now. Still, I don't have a whole lot of confidence left in my ability to find wolves. I'll vote toDay, but don't expect much in-depth analysis from me - why bother?

EDIT: X'd with Lommy

Rikae

03-02-2008, 01:40 PM

Lommy, that's actually a good point about Nogrod. I could definitely see him choosing the nightly kills we've seen...

Volo

03-02-2008, 01:43 PM

Hmm... Lommy's post looks quite good.

I suggest something as crazy as everybody fills a decided form. Everybody goes through every other player and tells whom he/she will vote. I'd very much like to hear everybody's thoughts about Durelin, clear thoughts, as soon as possible.
After Durelin, an other player.

It's just a thought, but I think that this might bring something useful.

EDIT: Xd with Rikae

Nogrod

03-02-2008, 01:44 PM

This might be a bad time for losing hope, but I'll do it anyway. :/ Then again no time is good for that, at least withought going deep into the meaning of hope and the fabrics of the universe.:D

But even taking a realistic stance to the universe and everything from the point of view of our "village" it means we can't afford too many votes that miss their target. Actually two badly advised votes will be the downfall of us if my maths are correct. So let's not throw hasty votes today as the wolves may capitulate on them pretty easily with their sheer numbers.

And I'm yet again getting the feeling that I should once more reconsider everything I have thought this far. Kind of dejá vu -thing. I mean there are people around who with any basic ww-logic should not be here anymore, myself included. It feels like some people are now just sitting back and relaxing, sipping their cups of tea and smiling cunningly...

Btw. I'm having a pile of essays to read today and tomorrow so I may not participate as much as I would by I will try to post something before I go to sleep today... I mean there's a lot to look at...

(OOC Without that mock-fairytale ending that narration would have been just insufferable! Reading such a touching narration of one's own daughter's death is not a pleasant experience...)

EDIT: X'd from Lommy onwards

Meneltarmacil

03-02-2008, 01:47 PM

I would add my two cents' worth with my suspicions:

Nogrod: The way he joins the Caberwagon on Day 1 and on Day 2 looks like clever Wolf-strategy to me. "Look, I'm bandwagoning! But I joined his bandwagon earlier, so I'm legitimately suspicious of him!"

Volo: Bandwagons for Gwath on Day One and bandwagons for McCaber on Day Two. Ka was also a known innocent. Plus, he's just been acting STRANGE lately, as I've mentioned before.

Nerwen: Well, I don't like the way she's suspected so many known innocents, but now that we know she can't have been giving Wolf-Mac hints (since he wasn't a wolf), I'm inclined to back off on that. Her suspicion of many known innocents still bugs me quite a bit, though.

Volo

03-02-2008, 01:47 PM

You know, actually my thought sucks. It would give the Wolves a ready diagram of who should vote whom to lead everybody astray. :(

Rikae, what do you think about Mith's survival relating to Nogrod's?

EDIT: Xd with Menel. This is cheating, but am I acting strange compared to myself or compared to you? :p

Thinlómien

03-02-2008, 01:48 PM

Rikae dear, don't take it so seriously, this is just a game...... :)

I just had a look at the last posts of yesterDay and my suspicion of Nerwen has lessened a little.

edit: xed with Volo, Nogrod, Menel and Volo

Rikae

03-02-2008, 01:49 PM

Rikae, what do you think about Mith's survival relating to Nogrod's?

Hm? Not sure what you mean by this.

Nogrod

03-02-2008, 01:55 PM

Lommy, that's actually a good point about Nogrod. I could definitely see him choosing the nightly kills we've seen...And no one would ever even dream of you making those picks? :rolleyes:

Or Lommy herself to that matter...

Funny we three shared the very same concerns in our first posts though. Now it just remains to be asked whether that's what the wolf-picks were meant to lead us into or whether one or two of us is playing the other(s) for a fool?

I'll be back a bit later and try to find some sense from all this...

Volo

03-02-2008, 01:55 PM

Mithalwen - For being alive. She should have been killed for leaving no trails, or less than Lily - unless the Wolves are such that don't want to kill good ol' Mith, but rather the newer players.

I'm not surprised to see Greenie go. No one really suspected her and her death kind of fits the wolves' earlier tactic of seemingly killing the people who don't either talk or contribute very much (no offense to anyone here :)). My initial thought is that this would point at me, Nogrod or Rikae being a wolf as I think we are the sort of people who would advocate killing of the silent or the uncontributive ones. Now I know I'm not a wolf and Rikae looks quite sincere (not sure here though) so it would point at Nogrod, whom I've started suspecting anyway, mostly just based on a gut feeling and the sort of convenience of his playing style. But I'm relatively unsure of him so I don't think I'll vote him toDay as we really have to catch a wolf toDay in order not to lose.
Lommy, that's actually a good point about Nogrod. I could definitely see him choosing the nightly kills we've seen...
I mean, why is Mith still alive??? If the Wolves' logic is to kill the player who has left the least trails...

Drat. Then again, Menel's name appears in front of my eyes, why not him. I think nothing can be said without examening his posts once again.

Meneltarmacil

03-02-2008, 01:55 PM

More on Volo's weirdness: I do not know what to make of this thing he said earlier:
Yeah, it is confirmed. I talked with Aganzir and she said that Mac is a Wolf.
What is he trying to do with this? If anything, that ought to make people trust him less! And he didn't need to post anything like that since Mac was already doomed at that point.

Oh, and as another thought, could Rikae be a furry beast? I mentioned this yesterDay (extra notes and emphasis in italics:
if Rikae has a bad feeling about him (Mac), she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)
Well, she was wrong about Mac...

EDIT: Cross-posted with everyone since my last post

Rikae

03-02-2008, 02:03 PM

Well, Menel, I guess I can't read Mac after all. I know this won't probably be believed, but the fact is I could not, and would not, try to get him lynched if I were a wolf and he were innocent.

I'm not sure about Mith's survival... actually, I think it's maybe a bit simplistic to say the wolves have been killing the quiet players. Greenie and Sally were not particularly quiet, actually... the odd thing about the wolf kills, to my mind, has been that they seem to kill people who might very possibly have been lynched. Perhaps, by doing this, they were trying to make those who suspected these people look bad? (and yes, I am inclined to deduce that from the fact that I suspected two of the people who were killed at night. :rolleyes:)

At any rate, killing people who *are* suspected as opposed to those who are widely trusted points to sporting wolves... and is a good way to confuse the village... I think Mith has been basically trusted since she declared herself innocent, right?

I'll give some serious thought to each of the players left today at some point... may as well give it an effort, even without hope.

Volo

03-02-2008, 02:09 PM

Menel, you are completely right there. What I said was a lie and thus I shouldn't be trusted. But the lie was made with good intentions, a bit like in Rikae's game. I hoped that it would make Mac confess and thus allow us to continue the discussion already then, or then confuse the Wolves to slip their confusion, like Brinn in Gil's game. Well, Mac didn't scream at me that I'm lying and he's Innocent, not nice of him. :rolleyes:

Rikae might be a Wolf, but in that case she faked her changing opinions too brilliantly yesterDay. I'm more inclined to think that even she isn't perfect and was simply wrong like the rest of us.

You know, I don't think WW does me good. Especially as I believe that anything can be explained both ways. I can never be fully certain of anything, and most of the situations in this game go both ways much easier than in normal games with Gifteds.
Good for me to say so after modding a game like I did........... :Merisu:

I'm off to do my homework and sleep, tomorrow(toMorrow)'s going to be a exhausting day(Day).

EDIT: Xd with Rikae.

Volo

03-02-2008, 02:12 PM

I know this won't probably be believed, but the fact is I could not, and would not, try to get him lynched if I were a wolf and he were innocent.That's what I thought too.
Greenie and Sally were not particularly quiet, actually... the odd thing about the wolf kills, to my mind, has been that they seem to kill people who might very possibly have been lynched. Perhaps, by doing this, they were trying to make those who suspected these people look bad? (and yes, I am inclined to deduce that from the fact that I suspected two of the people who were killed at night. :rolleyes:)
I don't agree. Everybody was just as lynchable in my opinion. Hmm, but otherwise you might have a point.

Thinlómien

03-02-2008, 02:13 PM

I mean, why is Mith still alive??? If the Wolves' logic is to kill the player who has left the least trails...Well, there can be dozens of reasons for that. Two that occur to me instantly are that 1) she's a wolf (kind of the obvious answer, if you set a question like that) and 2) the kills fit the profile of Nogrod, Rikae and myself and: I don't know very much about Rikae's relationship with Mith, but I and Nog are both very fond of Mith (now this sounds like I was talking about a baby or a cute koala bear, I'm so sorry, Mith :D) and would not like to kill her early, especially as she plays quite seldom these days. Furthermore, I'd like to add that Nogrod has once mentioned somewhere (in RL or ww, I'm not sure) that he thinks that Mith is a good player, especially in the later Days, so I could see him leaving her alive just for that.

Well, she was wrong about Mac...
Taking into account how she phrased certain things and what kind of feelings have "shone through" her posts, I doubt she's a wolf just because she was wrong about Mac, who was playing weirdly wolvishly for an innocent...

Now it just remains to be asked whether that's what the wolf-picks were meant to lead us into or whether one or two of us is playing the other(s) for a fool?I would say that is a very wolfy thing to say had I not considered that possiblity myself. I could see a player with as cunning and twisted mind as Nerwen's (sorry, obviously this is a compliment here :D and I will never forget the balrog wing thing or the Australian translation of LotR...) or with Volo's wit combined with his odd logic (again, this is meant as a compliment) doing something like that. Menel and Mith seem too "honest" to make up a plan like that (even though they could agree with it, I think) and Dury has had so long a ww pause that I doubt she'd be this aware of our exact playing styles. But this kind of logic takes us nowhere, I think. I think we either need to leave the whole thing be or accuse Noggie. :p

edit: xed with Rikae and 2x Volo

Volo

03-02-2008, 02:18 PM

...then again you and Nogrod are also possibly quite fond of Lily. But how would I know... :rolleyes: :D

Thinlómien

03-02-2008, 02:23 PM

...then again you and Nogrod are also possibly quite fond of Lily. But how would I know...I thought I didn't need to mention that. :rolleyes: But unlike Mith, she's played a lot lately and well, she actually complained early today that she's going to be very busy this week, especially tomorrow so we two would know she'd possibly be quite inactive...

And please, don't use this all against Nogrod because I have the feeling someone will do so. It will make me feel bad even though I suspect him as well. :( :D

Rikae

03-02-2008, 03:15 PM

And please, don't use this all against Nogrod because I have the feeling someone will do so. It will make me feel bad even though I suspect him as well. :( :D

Well, I don't think we're in a position to disregard anything at this point, Lommy.

Rikae

03-02-2008, 03:43 PM

Looking over the responses to Mac's "confession" yesterday, I think that Durelin, Nogrod and Menel responded in what could be a wolfish manner.

Nerwen, Greenie (of course) and, if I do say so myself, Rikae, responded in an innocentish manner.

Mith and Lommy did not respond at all, which could also be a wolfish reaction. I think Mith is innocent, though.

Volo ... well, he could very well behave that way as an ordo. Lynching him would be a bit of a shot in the dark, and we can't afford to take risks now.

Nogrod

03-02-2008, 04:26 PM

Took a pause from reading the eassys... and I'm getting a bit worried.

When everything depends on us getting the right one toDay - and when we should actually look at everyone with all suspicion we can find - there's this odd comradery going on between Lommy and Rikae.

And if either of you is innocent please remember that the wolves like to be nice to you at this kind of situations, the innocents are those desperate to get it right.

My main worry is Lommy as she has been the one doing the buddying up more but I'm not too confident with Rikae either anymore as she's not her sharp self who'd raise her eyebrows on Lommy but seems like easily taking the feel-good thing...

Look fex. just thisTaking into account how she phrased certain things and what kind of feelings have "shone through" her posts, I doubt she's a wolf just because she was wrong about MacPlease go back to the last game and look how Rikae's feelings "shone through" making almost half of the village to believe her emotional posts even if we had almost clear Seer-thing on her... So what are you talking here Lommy? This clearly is unnecessary and wrong. Why would an innocent talk such nonsense as we all know after the last game what Rikae is capable of with showing a feeling? If not to try to bring forwards the feel-good factor? And no innocent can't afford that toDay even if to save one's own neck from suspicion.

Maybe Mac was right all along and I'm much worse in looking my own daughter than I think. I mean Lommy has felt innocent all the game to me and I have shut my ears from people pointing at her suspiciousness as I've gotten innocent vibes from her but then toDay she starts to act like a wolf ready to nail this thing down by trying to ally herself with Rikae against me.

And then there was this:I thought I didn't need to mention that. But unlike Mith, she's played a lot lately and well, she actually complained early today that she's going to be very busy this week, especially tomorrow so we two would know she'd possibly be quite inactive...And please, don't use this all against Nogrod because I have the feeling someone will do so. It will make me feel bad even though I suspect him as well.
This kind of discussions should be OOC indeed but as it has been raised and it has made me suspect Lommy I need to talk this out anyway: Lommy knows perfectly well that I never visited the computer after hearing Greenie's lament about not being able to take part toDay too much (we were eating dinner a few hours before the deadline). So suspecting me of being the one killing Greenie at Night because I heard her schedual is just plain wrong and she knows it. The question then arises why did she wish to make a point of it... To try and lay further suspicion on someone she knows is innocent perhaps? Where she just too happy to continue her well-begun wolfy-attack on me so that she just forgot this particular case was impossible???

"And please, don't use this all against Lommy because I have the feeling someone will do so. It will make me feel bad even though I suspect her as well." :(

But another thing that bothers me a bit more generally is the seeming consensus that the wolves are "sporty" and they should be found among people who could fit the description. I mean I could see it as well the other way around where a bunch of less loud wolves would leave the loudmouths alive just to tear each other apart while they would just sit back and relax. It might be though that Lommy and Rikae indeed are the wolves here. It's perfectly possible. But what I don't like is the premature consensus. We should look more closely who were all too happy to further that idea and whom it would serve as a common opinion here ie. who have contributed to that idea which leaves them safe from suspicion?

It's also interesting that Volo also seems to make arguments that presuppose a logic of the wolves and how the possible break down in them makes certain people suspicious while Lommy also counts heavily on a presupposed "wolf-logic" (which intrestingly fits her as well). So those two just happened to think about our wolves as following a pattern and using that idea to cast their suspicions to convenient directions? Or was this something they made a deal to try toDay - with Lommy trying to pre-empt any suspicions on her by kind of admitting the patterns she discusses fit her as well but surely she isn't a wolf as she talks about it so openly?

Allright. We can't afford retaliation toDay and I must stay cool even if it takes some lip-biting at the moment. It only takes two wrong votes and we're done.

And just a passing observation...

It's interesting how busy pointing left and right both Volo and Menel are toDay. Now as the wolves are so near the victory they have also stepped their gear. A hasty wolf could act just like that: "so near, so near, let's give it the final push..." And with no offence I'd say they both could be "hasty wolves" at this kind of situation - not the least because they would have played an extraordinary cunning game and are anxious to get to the spoils. And furthering the idea of "sporty" wolves would fit them very nicely toDay...

Nogrod

03-02-2008, 04:29 PM

Rikae: you throw around quite carelessly that x, y and z reacted wolvishly and å, ä and ö innocnetishly... any points behind those classifications?

That's also one thing we can't afford toDay; taking different classifications without any arguments. It would be too easy for the wolves if we did.

Points toDay, arguments, cases...

Rikae

03-02-2008, 05:03 PM

Well, it should be pretty obvious why I classified them that way -- I called those who appeared to believe Mac's confession and gloat "innocentish", and those who appeared less convinced "wolfish". Why would an innocent have any reason to doubt or even discuss the possibility?
Of those, Durelin looks the worst to me, but honestly, I don't feel like bothering with further detailed analysis right now. I said quite a bit about Durelin yesterDay, and her reaction to Mac rather speaks for itself.

It looks to me as though either Nogrod or Lommy is a wolf... the fact that Lommy has focused attention on him suddenly could be a wolf trying to scapegoat an ordo and seal the victory, but Nogrod's reaction looks like that of a cornered wolf to me as well. It's also possible, of course, that they both are, and have decided to sacrifice one and make the other trusted... still, I'm still most confident voting for Durelin at this point. I get a feeling she's being protected right now, which might make her the wisest choice to lynch.. we'll see.

Rikae

03-02-2008, 05:16 PM

A few quotes from Durelin:

Guess I'll have to just vote for my 'comrade in wolfyness'. :rolleyes:

++Macalaure

If we're wrong, we're pretty screwed. And Rikae's going to be busy. If we're right, I might actually give Rikae the benefit of the doubt for once. Maybe... *shifty eye movement*

This looks to me like she, knowing Mac is innocent, prepares to use his death to attack another ordo. Of course, this depends on my knowledge that I'm an ordo.

Edit: Crossed with a lot of people... Rather boring confession, Mac. :p

Of all the responses, this looks the most to me like that of someone who knew Mac was lying.

After Mac admits he's an ordo after all:

Uh oh...Mac, I feel more sorry for you than this village. :eek:

(Incidentally, she had good reason to... and Mac and I are now considering not playing WW together anymore because of it.)
Anyway, this response also looks like it could come from someone who had prior knowledge... it's not merely an expression of surprise, but a thought-out response.

Also, note that Mac found Durelin, Nogrod and Menel's responses most wolfish. Mac isn't infallible, but he has good instincts.
More in a minute...

Rikae

03-02-2008, 05:19 PM

Oops, sorry, that was Nogrod, Menel and Mith, with Greenie and Durelin as his top suspects.

Rikae

03-02-2008, 05:32 PM

Looking at them further, I'd say:
Nerwen's expressions of surprise and asking what Volo is if Mac is a wolf look pretty genuine.

Nogrod actually doesn't react to Mac's confession at all, now that I look again (I thought he was, but that's a reaction to the retraction of it.) He votes for Mac in an uncertain manner and then, finding he was innocent, tells people to look at Lommy and I the next day.

Menel also doesn't directly address it, but responds (I think) to Nerwen's question about Mac and Volo being wolves together.

I think that ordos, upon "learning" that Mac was a wolf, would be likely to gloat as Greenie, Nerwen and I did. I know that Greenie and I were innocent, at any rate, so I'm inclined to think Nerwen is as well. I could be wrong... it could be faked... but I think it would be easier for a wolf just to stay away from that discussion.

Actually, I'm inclined to think it more and more likely that Lommy has rather artificially made Nogrod a focus today... just the sort of thing one might expect from a wolf if one or both of her comrades are in the spotlight.
Yes, it does make sense that Nogrod would make the kill choices we've seen out of his desire to keep talkative players around, but Lommy's later remarks on Greenie's schedule, and the disclaimer that she doesn't want people going after Nogrod on that basis, look fishy. "So-and-so looks suspicious but don't go after him" is a classic wolf stance.

*sigh*

Although I realise this is a critical time, I have a lot of work to catch up on here and really should give this a rest for awhile. I would prefer to cast my vote after a thorough look at every living player, if I get the chance.

EDIT: Quadruple post, go me. (So much for not bothering...)

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 06:46 PM

Volo: Has voted only for known innocents. Pattern of trying to vote said innocents without taking responsibility. Extremely paranoid– look how he’s been going after me ever since what I exclained was an early vote on Day Two.

Well, he did back off (#310), when I said that maybe I’d been wrong about him– he says that this is because I suspected Durelin... but later, when both Rikae and I started talking about her, and I said I found her “positively creepy”, he jumps in with a very strong defence of her (#320).

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

I especially don’t like the way the heated tone suddenly changes to a very weak "suspicion" in the last line.

(#322 & 326). Oh look, suddenly I’m back on the Dark Side.

(#322) Previously thought Mac suspicious, now he thinks he’s being framed.

(#331) Now I’m so evil that you can judge other people’s innocence by whether they suspect me or not (making Lommy and Lily suspicious).

A few posts later (#342) he makes the now infamous statement:

It [a Mac-Durelin-Volo trio] is possible, yet no more than that.

Once again, people are innocent or not according to whether they suspect me.

Still thinks Mac is probably being framed, but that his death “would reveal the most today”.

#351. Gives a rather weird explanation of his post: Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW.

I mean, I can understand the argument, but still...

#356. Votes Macalaure– this was the decisive vote: “Oh well, there's no other option. No way can anybody but Mac be lynched toDay. Might as well be him, although this is such a mess that anybody here can be a Wolf.”

I mean, look at this, will you? He held off until four people had voted Mac– then bang! Mac’s dead

...and, in his comments, he seems to be trying very hard to cover himself– as if he knows Mac is innocent.

#359. Further explains his “possible” comment, ending I must say that we encountered a rather amusing half-a-paradox.

This to me is the reaction of somebody who– very suddenly– isn’t the least bit concerned about what’s happening in the game. Very odd, that. Mac had just been killed and we didn’t know his role.

#360. I love this game.:D

That’s all. That looks like gloating to me. When I read that post I thought, “Uh-oh... I think the wrong person just got it..”

So that’s the case for Volo. The case against, as stated by various people, is that he’s behaving too wolfishly to actually be a wolf. Yeah, right. It's starting to get so that the safest wolf-tactic is to jump up and down screaming, "Lynch me! I'm a wolf!"

I think there's a very strong case for Volo and Durelin being wolves together– and if it's only one of them, I think it's Volo.

I really need to re-think on Lommy, now that we know that Mac was innocent.

EDIT: fixed spelling.
EDIT 2: ditto.

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 07:03 PM

Lommy's later remarks on Greenie's schedule, and the disclaimer that she doesn't want people going after Nogrod on that basis, look fishy. "So-and-so looks suspicious but don't go after him" is a classic wolf stance.

Yes, the relations between those two toDay– have they even mentioned each other on previous Days?– don't look good. But I'm not liking Menel either. I wish he'd stop parroting Nogrod's stuff about me "suspecting known innocents"– once again, those quotes were taken out of context– I was looking at people and putting the cases for and against their being wolves. Nogrod quotes only my "for" cases, making me look like I'm suspecting everyone.

And then, Rikae. She went after Mac yesterDay, and was fairly instrumental in getting him lynched. Yet I think she's more likely an ordo for the same reason she thinks I am– her reactions after Mac "confessed" look innocent to me. (Or am I just being suckered?)

EDIT: Sentence fragment.

Durelin

03-02-2008, 07:09 PM

I am almost too confused and depressed to care, but not quite. I wish I was, and didn't have to waste my time on this...

YesterDay I was wolfish because I seemed to be wolfish with Mac, toDay...?

Besides tossing me in some lists and stuff, you didn't seem to think me too creepy (except for saying you felt like Lommy and I were "laughing behind our posts") until suddenly after Volo asked you for your opinion on me:

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea...

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

Anyway, this response also looks like it could come from someone who had prior knowledge... it's not merely an expression of surprise, but a thought-out response.

I started getting concerned about you and Mac after I tossed out that comment about you two buddying up to each other and stuff. I really felt bad about that one. It felt like playing dirty and trying to put you two at odds. I suffer from Catholic-guilt...if I feel guilty about something, that's going to show up in any 'reacting' I do. I guess now that will seem like I'm trying to get on your soft side or something, but I know you're smarter than to let that happen, so trust me, I wouldn't bother with that.

Why would an innocent have any reason to doubt or even discuss the possibility?

Because Mac was already being so bitter about people suspecting him? Because Volo and others have been known to "confess" they are a wolf out of frustration or...something? Part of the problem with this village I believe is that there has not been enough skepticism. People have assumed the innocence of people such as Lommy and Mith for practically the entire game. The trend of making promises and trusting that someone is not a wolf because "when they are a wolf they do this" has bothered me from the start and quite probably has helped put us in the situation we are in now.

know this won't probably be believed, but the fact is I could not, and would not, try to get him lynched if I were a wolf and he were innocent.

As you said yourself:

Well, I don't think we're in a position to disregard anything at this point, Lommy.

Which I quite agree on.

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are innocent need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since they only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for them to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

Edit: Crossed with Nerwen x2

Rikae

03-02-2008, 07:18 PM

I think there's a very strong case for Volo and Durelin being wolves together– and if it's only one of them, I think it's Volo.

Considering what you've just said, I'd agree... but if just one is, I think it's Durelin.

Rikae

03-02-2008, 07:27 PM

YesterDay I was wolfish because I seemed to be wolfish with Mac, toDay...?

Nope. Yesterday you were wolfish, as was Mac, so I analyzed you both together to see if it were possible you both were.

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.
I mentioned suspecting you. Hang on, I'll go back and quote myself in a minute. You're right, though, I didn't analyze you. I didn't analyze anyone, actually... just interactions between various people.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

So, last time you did that as a wolf you were caught, but this time you knew better? ;)

Oh, I've taken the liberty of translating your last paragraph:
I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are wolves need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since we only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for us to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

:p

Rikae

03-02-2008, 08:05 PM

My previous mentions of suspecting Durelin:

Day 1:

- Durelin says Macalaure "jumped on" Lommy. I suppose this can be explained by the fact that it's already been mentioned and, as she says, she didn't see Boro's post. As for what the mention is supposed to accomplish, saying Mac jumped on Lommy and then "absolving" him with in-character banter is kind of slippery. The reader might absorb the meme "Mac jumped on Lommy" while also assuming Durelin doesn't think this is important.

- Boro notices Sally and Durelin's mistake (?) and suggests both are wolves. I suppose that is possible. It's also possible that Durelin is, and trying to help along the beginnings of a bandwagon;it's possible just Sally is, and Durelin is a misguided ordo.

Wolfish Irresponsibility without Wolfish Defensiveness:

Sally

Durelin
Lommy
Menel

Day 2:

Durelin's certainty of Gwath's innocence seems possibly too certain.

If yesterday's voting shook out a few wolves from their hiding places, I think there is a good chance they'll be found among some combination of Boro, Mith, Greenie, or possibly Nogrod or Durelin.

At this point, my top suspects (in order of wolfyness) are:

Boro
Greenie
Nogrod
Durelin

Day 3:

At any rate, if I were to listen to the nagging "gut feelings" Ive been having, I would say that I have an inexplicable sense that Lommy and Durelin are somehow laughing behind their posts

In reply to Volo:

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.

Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea... although we'd probably learn more by lynching Mac.

I'm not sure about the likelyhood of them being wolves together, though. I'll have to go back and look at their interactions more closely...

Just want to say this in case I don't survive --

take a good look at Dury tomorrow, folks.

Volo has a way of wording things oddly, after all, and could have been speaking from the perspective of the rest of the village. Still, if Durelin's a wolf...

That said, I just realized I posted saying "like I said", when actually the person I said it to was Mac, on the phone, after his death. :rolleyes:

At any rate, I'm going to go through and analyze everybody. I don't want to make a rash decision, especially with the whole game riding on toDay's vote. Besides, I have an essay due tomorrow and I want to avoid working on it. :D

Meneltarmacil

03-02-2008, 08:06 PM

OK, at the moment I'm inclined to trust Rikae on this. Except I don't think Durelin is quite as likely to be a wolf as Volo is. There are just too many things about him that don't add up.

Still, a Durelin-Volo connection could well be what we're facing here. I've gone back and read her posts, and while she tosses a bit of suspicion at him, it tends to be the kind of "he's not acting right, but I'll let it go for now" sort. The same sort that one wolf would use on another that's slipping up.

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 08:12 PM

Okay, now I'm starting to worry about Rikae after all– she seems to be pushing a bit too hard for Durelin, without giving much reason. I mainly think Durelin's guilty by association with Volo– whom I am nearly certain is a wolf– although there is that general "creepiness" that made me look at her in the first place...

If we were not in such fix, I'd say we could just as well lynch either of them, and that way we'd know what the other was. As it is I'd much rather go for Volo.

EDIT: X'd with Rikae, Menel.

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 08:21 PM

Rikae, after seeing your last post I take back what I said about you not giving reasons. I still think Volo is the more likely of the two to be a wolf.

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 08:23 PM

I'll tell you what, though– Durelin, whatever she is, does have a point with this:

Part of the problem with this village I believe is that there has not been enough skepticism. People have assumed the innocence of people such as Lommy and Mith for practically the entire game. The trend of making promises and trusting that someone is not a wolf because "when they are a wolf they do this" has bothered me from the start and quite probably has helped put us in the situation we are in now.

I have been guilty of this myself... and I think I need to look at Lommy again, with a more critical eye.

Meneltarmacil

03-02-2008, 08:25 PM

I still think Volo is the more likely of the two to be a wolf.
I agree. Durelin is a strong possibility as well, but there's a much stronger case to be made for Volo.

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 09:12 PM

As I said before, the case for Volo's innocence seems to consist entirely of saying "no wolf would act that wolfishly". So– what innocent would act that wolfishly?*

Similar is the "If I were a wolf I'd do such and such" argument which has bedevilled this game. Yes, it looks sweetly naive, and much too blatant to be something a wolf would say... but I'm starting to think part of the wolves' strategy has been to count on us all thinking we know what wolves would and wouldn't say.

*Apart from Sally, of course.:rolleyes:

Nerwen

03-02-2008, 09:25 PM

I have to go out now, so I don't have time to look at Lommy in any detail, but has anyone else noticed how she comes in suspecting me toDay?

Why? She never did before– and she gives no reason toDay.

Rikae

03-02-2008, 09:36 PM

As I said before, the case for Volo's innocence seems to consist entirely of saying "no wolf would act that wolfishly". So– what innocent would act that wolfishly?*

That's simple -- an innocent who is Volo. I have seen him act this crazy and more so while innocent.
I intend to have a look at him, but if we lynch Volo simply because he is erratic and tricksy, we're lynching him because he's Volo. At this point, I think there is maybe a 50/50 chance he's a wolf, and I don't feel comfortable voting for him in that case.
But now, to analyze afresh...

Rikae

03-02-2008, 11:44 PM

Nogrod -
Day 1
12 -He started off in his first post with nonsense and a rather optimistic, but obvious, assessment of the situation. Hey, I was looking forward to trying a no-gifted game too... I understand that.
28 – Introduces lynch-the-quiets plan. He seems to be talking about general principles to excess. He says THE Ka and Volo give him “bad vibes”, but then relativizes that. He also sets up the possibility that he will vote for a silent person. (Sure, that is something he brings up in every game, but you have to admit, this would be a really convenient setup for a wolf. )
Actually, one thing that has bothered me about Nogrod in this game is that he hasn't gone after me aggressively, as he almost always does. I find it easier to believe that he knew I was innocent all along, than that he suddenly became able to recognize my innocence! I feel a bit as though he's “buddying up” to me (to use a phrase that seems to be popular in this game.)
31 -Makes some points about Menel and Mac. Says he can't read Sally and Boro, and thinks Lommy's innocent but it may be harder to read those you know from RL (indeed..).
His points about Menel and Mac look reasonable to me.
76 -List of everyone's suspicions up to that point.
79 -Continues suspecting Menel. Seconds suspicions of Mac and Gwath. Has a bit too much of a go-with-the-flow feel, compared to the Nogrod I know.
81 – More suspicion of Menel, agrees with Lommy about Mac, considers it possible one or two of Sally-Dury-Gwath are wolves, but then says he'll probably vote for a “submarine”.
83 – Answers Volo's question, turns around and asks Volo why he thought it was important.
96 – Continues to make his case for lynching submarines, in reply to Greenie.
102 – Lists suspects. Top suspects Menel and Mac, “alarm bells ringing a bit louder” for Gwath. Uneasy about Nerwen, Volo, McCaber and THE Ka. Not wishing to bring up Boro, Rikae or Mith. Lommy seems innocent.
105- Vote count.
109 -Says Gwath might be a good candidate, because of his vote and lynching Gwath might shed light on Sally/Dury. Volo is strange. Repeats that he wouldn't like to lynch Mac.
(More buddying up, this time to Mac? I also think it's a bit odd the way he jumped on my Gwath/Sally/Dury thing as though it were a more solid link than it actually was. He seems a bit too quick to agree.)
114 -McCaber surely is a candidate – last minute doubts about Gwath.
124 -Mac's post makes him look more innocent... agreement/disagreement are not the marks of good/evil.
128 -Is it Gwath (too easy) or McCaber (a shot in the dark on a master deciever)?
134- Votes for McCaber.
138 -Look at Volo and McCaber toMorrow; lynching of Gwath possibly too neat.

Overall: Nogrod was definitely going along with others' suspicions more than usual, and there is much less of his typical thinking-in-circles, too. He seems to be buttering me, and later Mac, up (and possibly Lommy, too?), and backpedals on Gwath as soon as it becomes probable Gwath will be lynched.

Day 2
154 -Comments on grotesqueness of narration. Agrees with Lommy on Sally being killed because she left no tracks.
160 -Tally with minutes before the deadline the vote was cast.
163- The Gwath bandwagon a good place for a wolf to hide... far-fetched that many declared they didn't want to see Boro lynched... Volo's vote is fishy because he says he's “widening the vote scope”
166- Agrees with Mac's suspicion of Menel and McCaber. Backpedals a bit on Volo:
“It may be I kind of over-lived with the last minute bandwaggoning yesterDay and got a bit carried away looking Volo's vote as more malignant it actually was.”
172 -Looks at McCaber...could be a submarine-wolf wearing newbie mask.
194 - Looks at Volo. His vote was suspicious, he's creating the impression he's not too enthusiastic about playing, he acted defensive when suspected by Boro. Claims to agree with Lommy's concern that suspicion of McCaber is too unanimous, but then says he's not sure how unanimous it really is, and finds McCaber's assurances he'll post more later, but failure to do so, suspicious.
200 -Looks at people who said we shouldn't lynch Boro. Finds Mith, Lommy and Mac most suspicious with Volo trailing behind. Also finds McCaber suspicious for only looking at people who have already gotten votes.
205 – The Gwathwagon. Everybody who voted Gwath was voting safe. Finds everyone at least mildly suspicious. Now, consider that 4 of the seven (5, from my perspective) are known innocents...and another is Mith, who is either an innocent or playing very dirty. Also consider how scrupulously Nogrod avoided joining said wagon, although he helped it along dramatically with his “willl shed light on Sally/Dury” comment.
216 – Agrees with Lommy urging McCaber to write more.
222 – Tells me he didn't find me extremely suspicious (in his Gwathwagon post). Too friendly...
224 – Vote tally
235 - Nerwen needs to be looked at after Volo's point on her over-carefulness, Rikae a bit touchy but otherwise good and sensible, Durelin – no idea, torn about Mith (remember Rikae last time), Mac feels better all the time but Nog's uneasy about what he's capable of, Menel screams wolf (but more often than not ends up lynched as an innocent), not too easy with Volo but doesn't top his list, ready to lynch “timebomb” McCaber, THE Ka – no idea, Lommy looks innocent, Greenie's low-flying (and something else about her, but he doesn't know what) bothers him.
241 -Vote tally
245 – Could vote for McCaber, Greenie's vote looks bad, could see Menel but afraid it would go wrong, baffled by Volo.
248 – Let's not lynch Mac, he can be very helpful, if he's a wolf we'll catch him talking himself into a corner.
263 – “McCaber or Volo? I have no superior argument either way.”
265 – Votes for McCaber “the timebomb and the submarine”
270 – Thumbs up (to Mac for voting McCaber, I presume)

Overall: Although he makes sensible points now and then, a wolf-Nogrod is certainly skilled enough to do so. The way he seems to continue to try to win Mac's, Lommy's and my trust bothers me. Of course, he may just be weeding out the “submarines”, as he says, while keeping those around he enjoys playing against most... but then again, he might well have been doing the same by night! The generalized focus on the entire Gwathwagon, in retrospect, also looks rather suspect.

Day 3
284 -Wolves must feel comfortable, looking at kills – or creating that impression to move attention away from themselves... nightmare scenario: at least two of the loudmouthed are wolves keeping others of the same reputation alive to avoid drawing attention to themselves.
This would be a bold statement indeed for a wolf-Nogrod – and just the sort of bold statement a wolf-Nogrod would make, scarily enough.
286 – Promises to look at various people.
288 – Still bothered by the people who talked about wanting to “save Boro”. Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there. Crosses tables of those and the people in the Gwath-wagon.
290 – Analyzes Nerwen. Does not give his conclusions, and Menel then calls it a revealing analysis and adds his own suspicions of Nerwen! Sure, Nogrod shows Nerwen suspecting several known innocents, but since when is that wolfish, really? This raises more questions for me about Menel, actually. (Or could Menel and Nogrod be wolves together?)
296 – Nerwen is careful and suspects/votes people others have suspected. Moves a notch upwards on suspicion-list. Edit: sees latest posts and has to think again.
297 – Asks me why I'm so sure about Mac.
300 -Exhorts everyone to concentrate, agrees with me somewhat on Mac.
330 – Wolves can be right 100% if they wish (in response to Volo calling Dury innocentish), Mac one of his top suspects, inclined to trust Rikae's gut feelings on Mac... calls Lommy innocentish “as she's my daughter and I see her acting just sooo Lommyishly”, Nerwen wolfishly putting Mac alongside Rikae and Lommy, presupposing Mac's guilt and Lommy's and my innocence, still uneasy about Volo and Mith.
Now, it really looks to me as if he's trying the same thing with Lommy that I did to Mac in the last game. It's also interesting that he points out Nerwen might be doing what he could very well be doing himself if a wolf... plus, the fact that he builds an argument on mine and Lommy's innocence and Mac's wolvishness is a bit far-fetched, considering he's not supposed to know anyone's role.
393 – Votes for Macalaure, but not too happy about it, Nerwen's vote for Volo looks weird (assuming Mac is a wolf), Volo looks more weird than wolfish.
396 – If what Mac says is true, look at Rikae and Lommy.

Overall: Continues looking bad. May very well have had the “look at Rikae and Lommy” already planned for this Morning (although it can also be an honest reaction to Mac's innocence.) Doubts about Mac at the last minute (when he's already dead) – that never looks good.

Day 4

409 – We can't afford too many votes that miss their target, must reconsider everything, comments on narration. Hm, it would have been particularly insufferable, knowing he killed Greenie!
414 – Casts suspicion back on Lommy and Rikae over making the kill choices.
425 – Too much comradery between Rikae and Lommy. Criticizes Lommy for trusting Rikae too easily and vice versa, criticizes Lommy's bringing in RL arguments, says he didn't know Greenie wouldn't be around. Wolves might be quiet, lettling loud people kill each other. Lommy and Rikae could be wolves together. Lommy and Volo using presupposed “wolf logic” to cast suspicion in convenient directions. Volo and Menel acting like hasty wolves.
Of course, Lommy and I both agreed in suspecting him. Making us suspect each other instead would be ideal for a wolf. Still, an ordo feeling ganged-up on might react similarly.
426 – Asks Rikae for point behind classifications of reactions to Mac yesterDay.

Conclusions: Nogrod looks about 67% wolfish to me. He's being much friendlier and more agreeable than usual (well, he is Nogrod the agreeable, but still); he seems to have been trying to buddy up to Mac, Lommy and I until today, and not only do the kills fit his eternal “kill the innocents, keep the loudmouths around” crusade (maybe as a wolf, he's finally found the chance to put it into practice), he even suggests this is what the wolves are doing. He first encouraged the Gwath bandwagon, then made a show of opposing it and used it the next day to accuse several people, including four known innocents. On the other hand, his switch from arguing Nerwen's wolfishness based on Mac's to suspecting Lommy and I based on Mac's innocence looks innocentish, although it could be explained as preplanned as well.

EDIT: Wow, I think that was my longest post ever.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 12:09 AM

I'm going to bed now, it's after midnight. I only got my paper about 1/3 finished (wonder why :rolleyes:) so I may not have much time to post here tomorrow.
At the very least, I'll give my opinions as things stand at the moment:
Nogrod - See above.
Nerwen - One I really should analyze before I come to any conclusions. She's cast a lot of really strangely-founded suspicions around, at any rate. She seems a bit too determined to lynch Volo.
Menel - He's also made odd accusations. He was quick to jump on Lommy for banter on Day 1, and quick to jump on Nogrod's analysis of Nerwen without apparent reason. If he's a wolf, I expect Nerwen isn't.
Durelin - Actually, in looking over her past posts, I find myself wondering whether I don't partly percieve her as wolfish because of her sarcasm, which is, if I recall rightly, normal. I still find her reaction to Mac's "confession" (as well as her Day 1 words about him "jumping" on Lommy) fishy.
Mith - I'm inclined to think that she's a more honest person than I am, and making the declaration of innocence she did, as a wolf, would be too low and dishonest a tactic even for me. If she does turn out a wolf, I'll never trust her again, but for now I think she's innocent. (By the way, for what it's worth, as God is my witness -- I am an ordo.)
Lommy -- Like I said, I got the feeling she was pushing Nogrod a bit too much toDay, and I didn't like the way she simultaneously told us not to consider it. Still, since Nogrod looks suspicious too... and partly because of his repeated declarations of Lommy's innocence... hm. I think at least one of the two is most likely a wolf, at any rate.
Volo -- Well, he's Volo. As I said, 50/50.

I don't know what to do -- I think everyone but Mith is suspicious, to some degree. Perhaps it would be useful to analyze who is, and is not, likely to be a wolf with who else, but I don't have the time, myself. I hope someone else does.

*sigh*

Does anyone think Nogrod and Menel might be wolves together?

Rikae

03-03-2008, 12:25 AM

Just one more quick thing -- I find it a little odd how both Lommy and Nogrod are focusing so much on this "loud wolves" theory, and very, very little attention has been given to Menel, who has been quite strange, or Durelin, except by Mac and I.
It's also slightly creepy the way both Nerwen and Menel both say Durelin and Volo may be wolves together, but Volo is more likely one. Menel actually is following Nerwen here... Volo would be a very good scapegoat for the wolves to misdirect the necessary two innocent votes onto, if he's innocent. This also could be an attempt to shelter Durelin indirectly.
Durelin-Nogrod-Menel, perhaps?

EDIT: Bolding

Nerwen

03-03-2008, 01:35 AM

Actually, Rikae, I said yesterDay that I thought Nogrod and Menel might be wolves– though that's partly because it looked to me like they were trying to frame me. And as I said, I don't like the way that even now Menel repeats Nogrod's argument that I've been "suspecting known innocents"– as if everyone hasn't at some point! Please note that, for what it's worth, I am the only person who hasn't voted for one. (Although I would have probably voted for McCaber on Day1.)

On the other hand– Rikae, Volo may look only 50% guilty to you, but from here he looks about 95% guilty; I mean, what would he have to do to convince you of his guilt? You're asking me to take it on faith that he behaves like this when innocent. YesterDay you "knew" Mac was guilty, and a lot of your argument was based on his playing style and your gut feelings. Sorry, but after that I'm not ready to blindly trust your judgement toDay.

And after all, though my feeling is that you're innocent because of your reactions near the DL, I can't be sure. You've certainly done your share of lynching ordos this game.

I am not "determined" to lynch Volo. I just want to get the right person, and I think he's our best bet so far. I don't know whether I'm going to vote for him yet... I need to think.

Thinlómien

03-03-2008, 04:33 AM

When discussing my and Nogrod's reactions late yesterDay, please take into account that we were sharing the computer not only with each other but with Greenie also. So that is for example why I did not react to Mac's confession at all - because I did not touch the keyboard after I had voted. Also, Nogrod was not online right the moment when Mac confessed because Greenie was posting then (as you can notice).

Please go back to the last game and look how Rikae's feelings "shone through" making almost half of the village to believe her emotional posts even if we had almost clear Seer-thing on her... So what are you talking here Lommy? This clearly is unnecessary and wrong. Why would an innocent talk such nonsense as we all know after the last game what Rikae is capable of with showing a feeling? If not to try to bring forwards the feel-good factor? And no innocent can't afford that toDay even if to save one's own neck from suspicion.Sorry, I'm not just as dumbfounded with Rikae's brilliant performance as you obviously were. :p Granted, I knew Rikae was a wolf when I read her posts that convinced so many, but I didn't find it particularly convincing. Convincing maybe yes, to some extent, but some people certainly over-reacted it. Basically, you can't blame me for "making the same mistake as in last game"for I never made the mistake in first place - possibly because I didn't have the chance, that has to be confessed.

Lommy knows perfectly well that I never visited the computer after hearing Greenie's lament about not being able to take part toDay too much (we were eating dinner a few hours before the deadline). So suspecting me of being the one killing Greenie at Night because I heard her schedual is just plain wrong and she knows it. The question then arises why did she wish to make a point of it... To try and lay further suspicion on someone she knows is innocent perhaps? Where she just too happy to continue her well-begun wolfy-attack on me so that she just forgot this particular case was impossible???I'm inclined to respond as heatedly, but it will be of no use if we two start calling each other liar here. But anyway you're either lying :p or confused. For the thing I know perfectly well is that I and Greenie left your place about 40 minutes before the deadline and I have no means of knowing what you did after that. If you say you didn't go online, fair, I accept it because it would be quite nasty of you to lie here, but you can't assume I have some magic power with which I can know when you're sending wolf PMs and when you're not.

But another thing that bothers me a bit more generally is the seeming consensus that the wolves are "sporty" and they should be found among people who could fit the description. I mean I could see it as well the other way around where a bunch of less loud wolves would leave the loudmouths alive just to tear each other apart while they would just sit back and relax. It might be though that Lommy and Rikae indeed are the wolves here. It's perfectly possible. But what I don't like is the premature consensus.Am I the only one who thinks Nogrod is a bit panicky here? It's like "darn, Lommy and Rikae both look too innocent, I can't get them lynched, and I'm the only remaining loudmouth, I have to find a different kind of culpirt". Even though, if Nogrod was innocent and truly believed in mine and Rikae's innocence (which he seems not to do) he could act similarly.

I don't like the tone in which Nogrod accuses me. It's too nasty and dishonest to be innocent. I mean, it looks more like a desperate wolf to me. (Even though, one thing worth noticing is that innocents are more desperate right now than wolves.)

Durelin seems taking the suspicion against her quite heavily. Normally I would see it as a mark of an innocent, but I remember previous durywolves acting just like that. I can't really judge Durelin as truth be told I have not focused a lot of attention on her but right now she feels wolfy. It might be just that I'm picking a vague gut-feeling and the common opinion and making it mine so I don't really like it. I will reread the whole game toDay to be a bit more clear on things.

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are innocent need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since they only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for them to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.
Goodness, I didn't even realise this. Now we have to be extra careful... somehow Durelin saying that looks like she's reminding her fellows of the fact that if they get one innocent voting wrongly, they win. Oh, this is creepy...

I have to go out now, so I don't have time to look at Lommy in any detail, but has anyone else noticed how she comes in suspecting me toDay?
Why? She never did before– and she gives no reason toDay.We're now on the stage in which one most virtually suspect everyone. I did start the day with suspecting you a little, but after rereading yesterDay's last post, I suspect(ed) you less. Right now your sort of "keeping all doors open" looks like innocently so, so I'm not actually suspecting you that much.

In fact, I'm agreeing with Rikae that a Durelin-Nogrod-Menel trio looks at least possible, if not probable. *expects a vicious nogrodicissit attack after this statement*

I'd like to hear more of Mith's opinions on things, it could provide extra insight to Mith herself (whom I'm not considering very seriously at all) and to the identities of wolves.

Nerwen - I don't know how much you've played with Volo but I have to agree with Rikae once again: that's just his style. It does not make him look particularily innocent or guilty. I'm very baffled about him and I would like to take a closer look at his posts but I doubt I will have time to do it toDay because lynching him will be quite a shot in the dark anyway... I mean, I don't have time to focus on everybody so I'd rather focus on a few suspicious people and see who (if anyone of them) looks really wolvish. If we lynch a wolf today we can take it a bit easier toMorrow and then we can concentrate on enigmas but I do not think today is the time to do that.

Ok, now or very soon I'm off to reread the thread.

I have the bad feeling that the "fact" that Nogrod is a wolf fits everything so beautifully that I'll start seeing everything in that light... which is not nice because that's exactly what happened with Mac. If there would be a means of staying objective regardless of one's own initial suspicion I'd give a lot for it. :rolleyes:

Nerwen

03-03-2008, 05:43 AM

Nerwen - I don't know how much you've played with Volo but I have to agree with Rikae once again: that's just his style.

Well, that's two people now asking me to take it on faith. And sorry, but I don't think I can trust you and Rikae to that extent. I have thought you two were okay for most of the game, but after the Mac debacle, I doubt whether you can both be innocent.:(

Also, as I see it half the case against Durelin collapses if Volo is innocent... leaving her looking no worse (or not much worse, anyway) than anyone else and me with no idea whom to vote for. I mean, I can't see that much in that comment you and Rikae are talking about.

I'd like to hear more of Mith's opinions on things, it could provide extra insight to Mith herself (whom I'm not considering very seriously at all) and to the identities of wolves.

And Mith herself needs looking at. She was a suspect earlier... and now she's generally considered innocent because, as far as I can work out, she's been quiet for a while– and because she said she was innocent.:rolleyes: (Honestly, what is wrong with everyone in this game?)

Not that I suspect her in particular, but I'm not giving anyone a free pass now.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 06:20 AM

On the other hand– Rikae, Volo may look only 50% guilty to you, but from here he looks about 95% guilty; I mean, what would he have to do to convince you of his guilt? You're asking me to take it on faith that he behaves like this when innocent.
You don't have to take it on faith - you can go look at some of his past games. A good example would be the one I modded, WW XXXIII, whre he was the seer and claimed, on Day one, to be immortal. He ended up doublt-lynched with Mac, a wolf. Looking at any of his past games should give you a good idea of how he is, though. I suggest you do so before voting toDay.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 06:27 AM

While you're at it, look at some of Mith's games and see if she's the type to blatently lie.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 06:31 AM

Rikae

03-03-2008, 06:40 AM

Quadruple posting, again (where is everybody?) -- one thought that's been haunting me is: what if Noggy and Lommy are wolves together? Of course, by going agaisnt each other like this toDay they'd be risking the quick victory, but also making the survivng wolf look quite good. I find it rather odd that they started the day off (Nogrod, actually, in his last post yesterday) suddenly suspecting each other. Also, Nogrod appeared to be buddying up to me on previous days, and Lommy seems to be toDay. It's an excellent strategy for them to keep me around, and, from this point on, we need to lynch a wolf every day. If I'm not killed at night, I can't become a known innocent without this ending the game. I have a feeling the wolves (or at least one of them) is/are trying to win me for an ally while hiding behind me, and I don't much like it.
I'm at least 90% confident that one of them is a wolf. If I can possibly find time, I'll analyze Lommy too, and their interactions.

Thinlómien

03-03-2008, 06:58 AM

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...Possibly because I simply happen to think along the same lines in many cases.

If I was buddying you up intentionally, don't you think I would be a bit obvious? Or transparent rather? A bit overdoing it?

I've reread a bit and while I have not managed to arrange my thoughts nor do I have time to do so right now, I must say that if possibly, rereading has made me even more confused. Rikae started to look more guilty, Nog and Dury more innocent... but I have still something against Nogrod (this will be elaborated on) and Dury as well and Rikae would seem less innocent had she not said a couple of things I doubt she'd lie about..

Rikae

03-03-2008, 06:58 AM

Oh, why not go for the record... quintuple post.

I would really like to hear Mith's opinions on everyont.

I am not 100% sure of Nerwen's innocence. She has an innocentish feel, but seems to go after people with bad reasoning. Her reactions to Mac yesterday could very well have been faked (I mean, this is Nerwen we're talking about here!)

If we can lynch a wolf toDay and toMorrow, we're headed toward a very desperate, but very exciting, endgame (just to look on the bright side!) I have always wanted to participate in a 3-villager, 1-wolf final day.
:D

If we can't lynch a wolf toDay, we've completely disgraced ourselves as a village and have no business complaining about gifteds again. I'm at the top of the list of those deserving a public flogging, too.

Nogrod, you have mostly been defending yourself and attacking Lommy and I, if I remember correctly. What do you think of Menel, Nerwen, Volo, Durelin and Mith? I would particularly like to know why you've left Menel alone since Day 1, even though he is the submariniest submarine there ever was.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy. Mist! Spoiled my record.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 07:03 AM

If I was buddying you up intentionally, don't you think I would be a bit obvious? Or transparent rather? A bit overdoing it?
No more than you already are.

I see you're sticking with the "if I was a wolf" tactic... it has served you well thus far, hasn't it? I never thought it was innocentish, myself, but it's not enough reason to lynch you, either, especially in our dire circumstances.

I'm interested to hear what else you have on Nogrod. He is my top suspect right now (by a slight margin, ahead of... everybody but Mith.) What makes him look more innocent, too? And what makes Durelin look more innocent?

Nogrod

03-03-2008, 07:11 AM

This is looking all the more creepier.

Okay answering two things in a way to both Lommy and Rikae: my tone was a bit "frustrated" I'd myself say it was as I first see you two looking like forming an alliance to get me lynched - and thence give the victory to the wolves - and then Lommy goes on making untrue RL arguments to give me one more push.* I was indeed quite disappointed with her - and in a sense am still.

About the "buddying up" thing. As you have yourself noted already I'm against lynching vocal players early in the game unless there seems to be reasons to actually suspect them over others - and I also know that loudly voiced suspicions may end up generating a lynch. Had I seen something that looked as wolfy as Mac's posts in the early Days I would have surely jumped on either of you two (or Boro for that matter).

Also it's funny that as my last reaction to Mac's revealed innocence was that people should look at Lommy and Rikae if I'm not around anymore the next Day begins with those two buddying up to get me lynched...

But this is no time for retaliatory actions. Two miss-votes toDay and we're done for. And it could be anyone... any three. I mean even if Nerwen is one of my top candidates still I must agree with her that Volo being Volo just isn't enough to let him fly under our radars. And I would like to hear something from Mith.

So what then? I'm sadly still having piles of essays to read and can't play much but I will come back later and try to do my best then.

* Just a quote from the roles & rules, the first lines.
-Three werewolves. They may PM at Nights and pick a kill, which should be sent to me at least an hour before the deadline - otherwise there will be no kill.Lommy herself said they had left 40 minutes before... But okay, no more of that from my part.

EDIT: X'd with many Rikae's and one Lommy

Mithalwen

03-03-2008, 07:17 AM

Sorry not to have been around before - day from Mandos yesterday. To answer someone's question I am still alive not because I am a wolf (I am not) but because I am, a bit clueless . Why I keep getting asked to play is beyond me. I have been quieter than usual and a bit shifty looking. I suspect that there is at least one wolf who finds me a useful foil and why kill someone at night who you might get lynched? Remember the wolves form a powerful bloc now.

This is our last chance isn't it...... I have a little time now and will be back for the last bit.

Mithalwen

03-03-2008, 07:24 AM

And Mith herself needs looking at. She was a suspect earlier... and now she's generally considered innocent because, as far as I can work out, she's been quiet for a while– and because she said she was innocent.:rolleyes: (Honestly, what is wrong with everyone in this game?)

Not that I suspect her in particular, but I'm not giving anyone a free pass now.

Fair enough but I am notorious for going loopy under the stress of a special role. I have only been a successful wolf once (Roa, novice and rule assisted) - the first time I was Fenrised and the second I confessed out of boredom..... I have declared both times as a gifted.... I am a heart -on-sleeve type, trying to be otherwise takes a huge effort and tends to result in me cracking up...

Rikae may realise this.. of course she may just know I am an ordo cos she is a wolf .......

Nogrod

03-03-2008, 07:26 AM

Nogrod, you have mostly been defending yourself and attacking Lommy and I, if I remember correctly. What do you think of Menel, Nerwen, Volo, Durelin and Mith? I would particularly like to know why you've left Menel alone since Day 1, even though he is the submariniest submarine there ever was.You haven't been giving me too many chances to do other things with your pressure on me. :confused:

Menel I'm pretty torn with. Boro's point of him being that way everytime took me off his tail back then but I sure need to reconsider him toDay. Volo is in the same category: sometimes I think it's just Volo and sometimes I tend to think he's the real tricksy wolf using a perfect cover (remember he can play that way as a seer so why not as a wolf?).

Mith and Durelin have flown under my radar basically the whole game and I know I'd need to do something about it. I'll try it later toDay

There wasn't a tie between Nerwen and Mac which I thought there were but she's one of my top suspicions still.

So if I had to give my hunch of the moment I'd say Lommy - Nerwen - Volo. They could produce the Nightly kills, there would be at least one Gwathwagoner & Boro-friend, Nerwen and Volo against each other would be nice tactics while both made it so monomaniacally that no one believes it - and Lommy looks like detaching herself from the two.

Okay that's just one scenario but now I really must go back to work.

EDIT: X'd with Mith x2

Nerwen

03-03-2008, 07:27 AM

If I'm not killed at night, I can't become a known innocent without this ending the game.

Why not, Rikae? I don't get it.

You don't have to take it on faith - you can go look at some of his past games. A good example would be the one I modded, WW XXXIII, whre he was the seer and claimed, on Day one, to be immortal. He ended up doublt-lynched with Mac, a wolf. Looking at any of his past games should give you a good idea of how he is, though. I suggest you do so before voting toDay.

I've done so.

Oh. My. God.

Volo in WW XXXIII:

My role is called the Reincarnation of Tolkien. And because Tolkien is immortal, I can't be killed. I am on the side of the Innocents. My goal is to lynch the Wolves. If I am to be lynched or killed at Night, my role will be revealed, but I won't die.

I take your point, Rikae. (And thanks for a good laugh :D.) I still think he's likely a wolf, though, but I'll revise it down to... I don't know... 75%. (Anyway, I'm not about to vote anyone in a hurry.)

Re: Lommy and Nogrod– yesterDay, in my analysis of Lommy's Day 1 posts, I said,

Comments: Well, on Day One Lommy is indecisive, throws suspicion around, and now and then it looks as if she's taking instruction from Nogrod. but I dismissed it.

I need to re-consider Lommy. Most of the game I've been pretty sure she was innocent and being unfairly targeted... but maybe the fact that she kept saying she thought I was innocent has biased me in her favour? It's easy to do.

On the other hand, Rikae, you must realize I'm not at this stage prepared to trust anyone else either, including you. As I said, I think it's very likely either you or Lommy is a wolf– though if it's you, you did a brilliant job of acting after Mac "confessed".

EDIT: X'd with everyone since Rikae at #254.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 07:27 AM

About the "buddying up" thing. As you have yourself noted already I'm against lynching vocal players early in the game unless there seems to be reasons to actually suspect them over others - and I also know that loudly voiced suspicions may end up generating a lynch.

You always advocate leaving loud players alone, but I've never actually seen you act on it so extremely before. I have also never been thought innocent by you for so long.

* Just a quote from the roles & rules, the first lines.
Lommy herself said they had left 40 minutes before... But okay, no more of that from my part.

I wonder whether you needed to PM at all, though. Perhaps you could just speak to your fellow wolf?

All this is beside the point, though, really. I think the issue is that you might have killed Greenie knowing she wouldn't be around? This actually makes me wonder whether Lommy was giving us her own reasoning behind killing her sister...

At any rate, please give us your opinions on everybody else -- I'm quite anxious to hear them. Also, can you explain why you helped the Gwath wagon, and then denounced it... and why you voted for Mac so halfheartedly, but only after he was already done for?

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

Rikae

03-03-2008, 07:30 AM

Why not, Rikae? I don't get it.

Because lynching one innocent will end, and lose, the game.

Nerwen

03-03-2008, 07:36 AM

Sorry, brain wasn't working– I didn't realize you mean that. It's late here.

I just realized, my last post X'd with heaps of people.

Nogrod

03-03-2008, 07:50 AM

Okay, absolutely the last post for the time being (I'm going to shut the PC down so as not to be able to see any more posts in a while).

At any rate, please give us your opinions on everybody else -- I'm quite anxious to hear them.What I gave just a few minutes ago in #461 sadly is the best I have now time for...

Also, can you explain why you helped the Gwath wagon, and then denounced it... and why you voted for Mac so halfheartedly, but only after he was already done for?You could go back and read your summary or rather my posting then - and I explained it once already the next Day after being asked. He was looking suspicious but as the Day draw closer to the end I started to have second thoughts among many others - and as I saw still the huge wagon emerging including half of the village I thought it too fishy as there had to be wolves there and they wouldn't lynch a partner that easily on Day1 so Gwath was more probably innocent than not.

I voted Mac as soon as I got the computer from Greenie and I had seen him confess his wolvery, therefore the "as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...." - if that's what you mean. I don't know if that is halfheartedness but more like a statement of the inevitable (he confessed so let's be done away with it then).

Rikae

03-03-2008, 07:55 AM

I voted Mac as soon as I got the computer from Greenie and I had seen him confess his wolvery, therefore the "as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...." - if that's what you mean. I don't know if that is halfheartedness but more like a statement of the inevitable (he confessed so let's be done away with it then).

But as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...

++ Macalaure

But that done I must say I'm not at all too happy with this whole thing. There were too many easy bandwaggonings toDay and I must agree with Volo that I do not like it. With the unanimous decision the fellows have just slipped in to join.

Okay, I see... I misinterpreted. I thought you hadn't seen his confession yet. It is strange, though, that you take such a pessimistic view of lynching a "known" wolf, at any rate.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 08:06 AM

Okay, Nogrod looks a little better, considering the above.

I'm uneasy about the fact that, although she has been talked about as being creepy, no one (but me) is seriously suspecting Durelin. I actually would tend to think, considering the general creepy feelings mentioned about her, the wolves would have taken the opportunity by now to scapegoat her, were she innocent. I also dislike the way that Menel is being completely ignored. To me, his behavior has been more blatently suspicious than Volo's.

So, a summary:

Suspicious:
Menel
Lommy & Nogrod (like I said, I think one is a wolf, probably not both)

Unsure:
Volo
Durelin

Of the two, I think Durelin's more likely a wolf because Menel appears to be protecting her, and there is so much silence around her. No one seems willing to analyze her (I fear I might not have the time, myself). Volo's voting is the one thing about him that really looks particularly suspicious to me.

Innocentish:
Nerwen
Mith

Nerwen has an air of sincerity, though I'd still consider the possibility she's a wolf. Mith I'm basically leaving alone for now, for reasons previously mentioned. Even if she is devious enough to be a wolf after her previous performance, there are two other wolves out there.

I really don't like the fact that so few people are really analyzing - now, when we need it most!

EDIT: Removed redundant "about him"

Volo

03-03-2008, 08:11 AM

I'll be at home after about 40min. Just decided to drop into the library after school.

I got the feeling that Nogrod is a Wolf during a long walk in a nice snowy forest yesterday. I came to quite the same conclusions as Rikae (hah, now I'm buddying you up).

Especially Nogrod's last posts look that of a Wolf, now that Rikae mentioned the buddying up, Nogrod posted a post with thoughts that are very far from anybody elses - it looks very unprobable that he could actually convince people to vote the people he "suspects", and that sure is suspicious from Nogrod. While I do agree that it is possible for Lommy and Noggie both be Wolves, I think it more possible that Nogrod is one on his own. At least I don't think that Lommy is a Wolf and Nogrod isn't.
The picture of Lommy being a Wolf and Nogrod not looks far different, deducting from preveous games. Lommy would be far more nervous and Nogrod would attack more aggressivly.

I can't really decide who could be Nogwolf's partners. Dury is still probably my second suspect, about Menel I don't know. However if we manage to survive till Morrow, a lot more will be seen.

Ok, I'm on my way to giving the whole evening to WW.

Xd with everything since #465.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 09:28 AM

A look at Menel:
There is so little, I can quote his posts in their entirety.
Day 1
20 -I really do not like the look of Lommy here. She seems to be deliberately provoking Gwathagor and casting suspicion on him for no good reason. Could be nothing, but it still isn't helping anything.

I also predict that Boromir88 will do something in the future that appears innocent to everyone except me. I will become suspicious of him, and he'll start attacking me if he hasn't done so already. He'll be innocent during the whole thing, though.
Suspects Lommy for obvious banter, banters with Boro. Could be seen as buddying up to Boro. (This was actually first pointed out by Nogrod.)

23 -

More along the lines of "jokingly casting suspicion" than anything else. Check the abuse you gave him in your second post. I can see it was intended as a joke, but wolves have shown a tendency to toss out "silly" suspicions on Day 1.

The “abuse” in question was:
“It is now Day 1. Wolves stop PMing. Start talking.”

Just noticed this: looks like only wolves can talk now. So did we now reveal ourselves, Gwathie? :eek:

:p ;)

33 -To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.

*sigh* And now there's my playing style coming back to bite me. Why must I always focus on a single suspect to the exclusion of all else?

Oh, and Nogrod, my comment about Boro being innocent was made because he usually was innocent whenever I suspected him. I am not certain of his role by any means.

This actually looks sincere and sensible enough, in itself. However, he is basically following Mac here.
43 -

Frankly, I am somewhat puzzled as to why Macalaure should make a big deal out of Nogrod's "protect our assets" line. The leap from that line to "Oh, he must be referring to himself as an asset to avoid being lynched" seems pretty weak to me. All I see in Nogrod's line is a simple statement that we can't rely on a ranger to protect us.

This also looks relatively reasonable (I had the same thought about Mac's response to Nogrod at the time.)
[OFF TOPIC – this just jumped out at me. Look at how mildly Nogrod responds to Mac suspicting HIM in post #28:

Mac and Boro have already cast some suspcions around and Lommy has pointed out things in others' posting as well. That's what we need to do to both look at the reactions and to gather information about what others think (or what they want us to believe they think).
[/OFF TOPIC]
72 -
Originally Posted by Macalaure
I think I made it quite clear that I'm not making a big deal out of it. I only mentioned it because it was the only suspicious thing I saw at all at that point. Should I have said nothing at all instead?

I probably wouldn't have read it as suspicious at all, and I don't see why it was worth discussing.

As for McCaber, I don't know what to make of him. He seems to be a suspicious character regardless of what his role is.

Very mild, very noncommittal.
101 – Let's see here:

Lommy and Mac have been noted as odd, and I'm inclined to suspect Mac more.

Gwathagor... Well, I've read what you've been saying about his defense of Durelin and Sally, and it doesn't seem TOO suspicious at this point, given that Mac really did seem to be more aggressive than Boro. The only odd thing I can see about it is the words he used, and I've seen enough of his style lately to know that he tends to take things personally to a certain extent, enough that this sort of abruptness isn't overly strange for him.

I think I'll be voting for

++Macalaure

for now. It's a bit weak, I know, but none of us really have a whole lot to go on.

Earlyish (46 min before DL) vote, on admittedly weak grounds. Mac is unlikely to be lynched at this point, so a safe vote.

Day 2
179 -

Ungh...

I have a lot of work to do, and I doubt I'll be posting much at all toDay.

I'm inclined to suspect Mac and McCaber. The former was suspicious enough yesterDay, and I doubt that the Gwathagor bandwagon was entirely wolf-free. McCaber got a lot of votes near the end, and if he's a Wolf, it would explain why the Gwathwagon needed reinforcement.

I know, I should provide more reasons, etc. but I don't have the time right now. I'm sorry.

*goes back to drowning in homework*

Here, he's following Nogrod's focus on the Gwathwagon and Nogrod's suspicion of McCaber. He's playing it very safe.
189 -

OK, I don't have many real leads. I agree with Boro's sentiment that Mithalwen has been posting a lot but saying little. This is suspicious.

Then there's McCaber. Problem with him is that he tends to be suspicious wherever he goes. Yet, I can see what everyone sees in him. His constant suspicion of Gwath with little reason other than "He hasn't formed an opinion" puts me off. Why should anyone have formed a definite opinion that early on?

I doubt I'll be doing much on here later (big day, lots of work), so

++McCaber

Real life obligations I can understand, but Menel is really flying under the radar and riding other people's coattails here. Boro said that this is like him, but I recall a more aggressive Menel from past games.

Day 3
289 -
With an innocent McCaber, I think we may have a good idea of where to start looking for Wolves.

I think one may have hid in the Caberwagon on Day 1 while another voted for Gwath, and the third one voted for someone else.

I also think there's a wolf in the latest Caberwagon, the one that lynched him.

As for the possibilities, I see a few:
Volo voted for Gwath and McCaber, not counting his Ka-vote. Staying in bandwagons is hardly ever good. Plus, all his votes were for known innocents, again not a good sign.

Nogrod votes for McCaber both times. Good choice to cover one's tracks, claim that you voted for him before, therefore you must legitimately suspect the latest bandwagonee.

And then there's Mac... Oh, what am I to do with you? Same bandwagons as Volo, and I've suspected him before. Well, I doubt he and Volo are both wolves, as voting the same bandwagons twice in a row would be dangerous.
After appearing to “take lessons from Nogrod”, he suspects him on Day 3. If they are wolves together, I would expect Nogrod to advice him to do just that. His reasoning generally looks odd here, anyway. His point about Nogrod is legitimate, though.

291 - Well, Nogrod, that is indeed a revealing analysis.

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Also, note the way she "suspects" Mac early on:
Quote:

Yes, but let's not allow that to get twisted into, "well, hey, it doesn't matter who we lynch". I suspect the wolves may try that.
Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

The no-vote on Day 1 is interesting in light of the pattern I mentioned earlier, as it definitely gets her out of the bandwagons.

Also, this would suggest that Nogrod be taken off my suspicious list for suggesting her. However I'm not doing that unless Nerwen is found guilty

This is the weird and creepy thing I mentioned in my analysis of Nog. Nogrod hasn't actually given his conclusions yet, but Menel jumps on the analysis to build his own case against Nerwen. It looks too calculated, to me – I could see it as a too-hasty attempt to “stand on the shoulders” of an innocent Nogrod, or perhaps of a wolfish comrade... it could even be the results of a “let's focus on Nerwen” agreement from the previous Night. At any rate, it looks like a blunder by an overeager wolf-Menel to me.
302 -

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

346 -

++Macalaure

He's voted in major bandwagons before, I've suspected him when he cast suspicion for little reason on Day 1, and if Rikae has a bad feeling about him, she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)

Worth noting he's again following Nogrod's reasoning (about my gut feelings being valid *wince*). Also, the “I've suspected him when” ... the wording implies he's voting for Macalaure not because he actually suspects him now, but because he's mentioned suspecting him in the past. It's a small thing, but slightly wolf-slip like, as Menel seems to be focusing more on how he can justify his vote than on how suspicious Mac actually is.

Gaaaa! Wait, Volo saying it's possible that he himself is a Wolf?

Well, that and his Ka-vote on Day One... He's definitely being quite the oddball this time, and I don't exactly know why.

Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

Now, the question is, would a wolf-Menel make this show of surprise and wanting to change his vote? I'm not sure. Certainly it would be a good move for a wolf at this point, but I'm not sure it's one Menel would make.
362 -

Yes, Volo, I see what you mean. In the absence of a Seer, every little comment can be jumped on for maximum value due to us having no solid leads.

EDIT: X-posted with Mac

I started thinking Volo looked less suspicious after further reflection too, so I don't see Menel doing so as necessarily suspicious.
387 – (About Volo and Mac being wolves together)

I wouldn't exactly count on that. As I've said earlier toDay, both of them are unlikely to be wolves together, since they voted for the exact same people on Day 1 (Gwathagor) and Day 2 (McCaber). Unless this is some complicated form of double-bluffing, I don't thnk the wolves would do something like that.

Could be sincere, could be not. Good job of acting sincere at any rate – showing some concern what happens after the lynch is decided. Volo and Menel are unlikely to be wolves together, I think, based on this – or Menel wouldn't bother to tie Volo's innocence to Mac's (about to be disproven) guilt.

Day 4
402 -

Macalaure, how dare ye!

My sentiments exactly.
410 –

I would add my two cents' worth with my suspicions:

Nogrod: The way he joins the Caberwagon on Day 1 and on Day 2 looks like clever Wolf-strategy to me. "Look, I'm bandwagoning! But I joined his bandwagon earlier, so I'm legitimately suspicious of him!"

Volo: Bandwagons for Gwath on Day One and bandwagons for McCaber on Day Two. Ka was also a known innocent. Plus, he's just been acting STRANGE lately, as I've mentioned before.

Nerwen: Well, I don't like the way she's suspected so many known innocents, but now that we know she can't have been giving Wolf-Mac hints (since he wasn't a wolf), I'm inclined to back off on that. Her suspicion of many known innocents still bugs me quite a bit, though.

Ok, now he persists in suspecting Nogrod, for reasons he (I think) came up with on his own the other day. This makes him look better in my eyes, and also argues against the idea of him being a wolf with Nogrod slightly. This is not a good time to put pressure on a wolf-buddy Nogrod – however, a wolf-buddy Nogrod is one likely to plan to be sacrificed, too. He is, however, following Lommy and I with this, and thus continuing to go with the flow.
437 -

OK, at the moment I'm inclined to trust Rikae on this. Except I don't think Durelin is quite as likely to be a wolf as Volo is. There are just too many things about him that don't add up.

Still, a Durelin-Volo connection could well be what we're facing here. I've gone back and read her posts, and while she tosses a bit of suspicion at him, it tends to be the kind of "he's not acting right, but I'll let it go for now" sort. The same sort that one wolf would use on another that's slipping up.

This is a rather weak argument for the two being connected, and I really get the impression he's simultaneously trying to look trustworthy to me by admitting Durelin is suspicious while arguing against lynching her. If Menel is a wolf, this post is good reason to believe Durelin is one of his companions. Also – I thought at first it was Menel who followed Nerwen in this (because he repeats it later on, agreeing with her), but it's actually Nerwen who repeated it a couple posts later. She did not mark this as a cross-post with Menel, and it makes her look a bit worse to me than before.
441 – (In response to Nerwen)

I agree. Durelin is a strong possibility as well, but there's a much stronger case to be made for Volo.

Now, this is worse than Nerwen's repetition. He's repeating himself now, and it really looks like an attempt to win Nerwen's trust. Also, Nogrod has dropped completely out of the picture, again.

Conclusions: He looks fishy enough in his own right, for going with the flow and flying under the radar, as well as making some very weak arguments and appearing over-eager to get bandwagons rolling. In connection with a possible Nogrod-wolf, he looks worse still – one question that has gone unanswered is why Nogrod has largely left Menel alone, when he is as much a submarine as McCaber was. Nogrod suspected him a bit on day one, then backed off without explanation and focused on others – Menel did the same with Nogrod toDay. It's generally fishy that no one has really drawn attention to Menel's behavior, when he's far from innocent looking, and suggests to me that he has some wolf companions working on keeping attention elsewhere.
Actually, I think I might prefer to lynch Menel over Nogrod toDay. As I've said, it seems to me possible that Lommy is framing Nogrod or vice versa, but Menel looks quite wolfish in his own right and either of them could be seen as responsible for directing attention away from him. There is also the fact that, thinking them both wolfish, I expect we can get more evidence out of Nogrod than out of Menel later on (and more entertainment, too... it *is* a game, after all.)
At this point, though, I could vote for either.

EDIT: Fixing spacing and bolding.

Rikae

03-03-2008, 09:39 AM

Thinlómien

03-03-2008, 10:04 AM

Okay answering two things in a way to both Lommy and Rikae: my tone was a bit "frustrated" I'd myself say it was as I first see you two looking like forming an alliance to get me lynched - and thence give the victory to the wolves - and then Lommy goes on making untrue RL arguments to give me one more push.* I was indeed quite disappointed with her - and in a sense am still.Now you're being unfair and besides you're getting insulting. You can't assume me to know the wolves' deadlines or ok, you can assume that I have read the rules, but you can't assume that I remember the insignificant parts. It is very ridiculous of you to claim that I'm very aware of what is the wolf kill deadline and then say you might possibly have been sending wolf PMs after that and think that no one will notice. Just because I'm confused I'm not stupid and you should know that I would never make a crap case like that intentionally, even if I was a wolf like you seem to "know". :rolleyes: Sorry but I'm becoming slightly frustrated with the overall tone of your posts and the mindlessness of your accusations. And sorry for everyone who has to listen to this kind of ugly speaking from me, but you can be assured I would not speak this bluntly to any other 'downer...

Also it's funny that as my last reaction to Mac's revealed innocence was that people should look at Lommy and Rikae if I'm not around anymore the next Day begins with those two buddying up to get me lynched... Now that is an unfair and false interpretation of the Day as far as I'm concerned and if you're innocent you should be sorry for letting that kind of things out of your mouth, which goes for the previous quote of yours as well.

Mith... please talk about something else than yourself as well... I at least would need your opinions more than your defenses...

I'm interested to hear what else you have on Nogrod. He is my top suspect right now (by a slight margin, ahead of... everybody but Mith.) What makes him look more innocent, too? And what makes Durelin look more innocent?I said I'd elaborate so I don't know what was the point in asking that... :rolleyes: Anyway, what things I got from a reread

- I really really doubt Rikae's a wolf because then she's a blatant liar. Before Nogrod jumps on this, I would say that Rikae is a convincing and good and bold liar, but not a blatant liar. It would be very unsporty of her to claim that she'd never campaign for getting an innocent Mac lynched if she was a wolf after she had said Mith would be really unsporty if she'd go to such extents of swearing she's innocent.

- There's interesting interaction between Nogrod and Menel. Menel seconds a lot of Nogrod's causes very easily yet he does not jump on other people's cases on this extent. It looks like he's seeing what his fellow is doing and following suit. Suspiciously so. If Menel is a wolf but Nog's an innocent my kudos belong to Menel for pulling a perfect Greenie (referring now to the game in which se beautifully got innocent morm lynched after dying as an obvious wolf). As to Nogrod's relationship to Menel and his suspicions towards him, it looks precisely like it's a fellow he's ready to sacrifice for looking good. Then, he slowly stops talking about Menel up until now and when he's asked straight, he makes up some wishy-washy could be anything statements. Because of course his "main suspects" can't be his fellows because it is so easy ofr him and his buddies to win toDay.

- I'm quite inclined to vote for Nerwen, but I'll do such a nasty deed as to see if there's any sense to vote for her. Otherwise, my targets are Boro and Ka - Ka slightly more. I'm falling for Boro's frustration, it looks a bit like SPM's in the first game I modded. But I won't vote in a such way that Boro is left alive, in a case that neither [b]Ka[b] nor Nerwen is on the way to be lynched.The use of the word "target" is just not right...

- ++Macalaure
Of the random voters for Gwathagor he worries me the most. Of course I don't feel good voting for the same person as Boro, but I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot, so what's the use spending another 40ish minutes on this...Sounds wolvishly senseless. I mean, what? Besides the "I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot" just looks a bit feigned...

- My feeling better of Dury and Nog was mostly based on gut-feeling of some of their early-ish posts. I can't really elaborate on it. I could look back and find those posts, yes, but as I was not smart enough to mark down which ones they were I don't have them right now...

That being said, I had a boring lesson and wrote very freely words and short phrases about everyone here, simply what came to my mind and no, I won't post it because no doubt someone would find it offensive (because when I write for myself I'm very straightforward and even careless in how it sounds like because I know what it is supposed to mean) and secondly because posting a censored version would be pointless. Suffice to say that in conclusion, what popped to my mind then is that briefly, on some people:

- Volo manages to be both jumpy, careless, relaxed and secretive at the same time and it is more than a bit weird.

- Durelin is very confident and cheerful. I know those adjectives have often been attributed to myself and I've been dozens of times unjustly accused simply because I have retained my cheerful spirit in tough situations. However, there is something wrong with Durelin's attitude, she's too carefree. She never seems really perplexed and although was at one phase annoyed, has never really lost her nerve in any way, just smiled all along. If you add that she usually comments everything yet really says nothing, nothing very unoriginal at least or nothing that would make people react to her words and that she's been too "right" and playing too conveniently, she looks quite wolvish.

- Nogrod has been quite laid-back and nice until he was suspected (not even so strongly!) toDay, when he started being quite aggressive. (He has used extensive aggressiveness as a means of flushing out wolves in the past, when he was a known innocent, but it would be quite reckless of him to do it in this kind of situation.) Also, when reading through the thread I realised he has been quite reserved for his normal self and giving out less of his thoughts and feelings than usual. I don't find it particularily comforting.

- Nerwen too, is somewhat reserved yet that seems to be her nature. If you combine it with her occasional single-mindedness and long analyses, it makes me feel like she was living in a bubble of her own (heehee, which might be quite true, looking at the timezones :p). There is something feigned, or maybe veiled, in her overall attitude but on the other hand she seems quite sincere too.

- Of Menel I mostly managed to spot incriminating or neutral things: quietness, submarineness, bandwagoning, a certain unoriginality of suspicions, quickness to agree and a certain aggressiveness. Although some of this is characteristic to him, I think he looks quite lycantrophiquesque.

edit: xed with Rikae x2

Durelin

03-03-2008, 10:09 AM

That's simple -- an innocent who is Volo. I have seen him act this crazy and more so while innocent.

I agree. Though Volo has been surprisingly calm toDay, now that he seems to have come under some pressure.

Nerwen's really starting to seem like she's putting on a show.

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...

Well, everyone's been finding various wolf-to-wolf messages...could this be one? I certainly agree with Rikae...she even echoed Rikae's "translation" of my reminder about what kind of situation this village is in. In Lommy's next post, she gives her now typical defense of this ("if I was a wolf I wouldn't be trying to buddy up to you so obviously") and turns around and says "Actually, Rikae looks more guilty now that I look back."

Lommy slightly turned around from "buddying up" to Rikae, but I don't think Nerwen has ceased to do so this the entire game. Her "suspicion" of Rikae has been little more than a comment here and there seemingly attempting to separate herself from her. A simple "I know I can't trust you."

Menel has been very much going with the flow, but so is Volo toDay. He's been much more calm and apologetic.

I wish Mith had more time. I remember giving a busy Nilp the benefit of the doubt and losing in the end because of it.

I need to look at Nogrod when I get back from class later, but I think the way he's been going after Lommy seems a bit contrived, the whole "straw-clutching" thing. Of course, Lommy bothers me, too.

Most wolfish, in some sort of order:
Rikae
Lommy
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo

Argh, I wish I could post more, but with classes and the network here being so flippin' terrible it, making it take at least twice as long as it should for me to look through the thread and post, I am having some difficulty.

Edit: Crossed with Rikae x2 and Lommy.

Edit #2: Maybe this Nog vs. Lommy is wolf-on-wolf?

Thinlómien

03-03-2008, 10:15 AM

You know what drives me crazy? I've put more effort into this game than anyone - at least, it looks that way to me - and I've been nothing but wrong so far. Quite depressing, as well as embarrassing. If I'm wrong again toDay, I might just hang up my ... keyboard? ... and retire from WW. :rolleyes:Although I have probably not used as much time to this game as you have, I'm feeling about the same. (And before you or Nogrod start accusing me of agreeing with you or buddying you up or whatever :rolleyes: Nogrod should be my witness that I already said this aloud after Mac's role was revealed on Saturday...)

I'm suddenly very frustrated with this game and it's really a pity since I've enjoyed it this far a lot, I mean really a lot, possibly more than some games in ages. Maybe I'm just frustrated at myself and I really should be at least annoyed at myself I'm frustrated by such a minor thing (gasp, she is not saying ww is the most important thing in life!) as being wrong all the time in ww...

edit: xed with Durelin

Thinlómien

03-03-2008, 10:18 AM

Somehow that post of Durelin's looks like the Menel+Nogrod+Durelin theory could be very right. Bad news is that when it starts to look obvious it's probably incorrect. :rolleyes:

Anyway - Durelin, did you intentionally leave Menel and Mith off your list?

Volo

03-03-2008, 10:21 AM

Durelin

I'm not sure that I'll be able to make an objective analysis, but for my own sake, I'll try.
Doesn't include all her posts!

Okay, wait. Who is this 'Little Green Person'??She must have known something about Lily before asking this. I don't think that Durelin would have otherwise had any motivation to say this. Might point at Nightly discussions - with either Lommy or Noggie.

#82 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=548816&postcount=82). It might be just my opinion, but Durelin is quite overdoing it. She doesn't really have much to say, but she says it anyway.
The things that do bother me are her attitude to players she doesn't know. A lot of asking what kind of player somebody is (Sally), it works as an easy point that doesn't lead to anything if someone confirms her point wrong or then an excuse to lynch a new player.
I don't believe in slips, but So, Sally - if you were a wolf, would you come out and tell us and make sure you got lynched?

#113 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=548855&postcount=113)
Otherwise looks ok, but it strikes me that she's too quick to decide that Gwath is Innocent.Yes, who knows, but putting forth an easy lynch like that will give a good hiding place for wolves, eh?

#133 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=548875&postcount=133) It might be stupid to blame her, but she votes for McCaber in pretty much the same way as he voted Gwath, and because of that. Wouldn't say that this points at anything.

#176 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549048&postcount=176)
For one thing, as Boro has pointed out himself...we don't know who is innocent, unless we are guilty ourselves.I might not believe in slips :rolleyes:, but this looks suspicious. Otherwise Durelin feels ok, except that she either concentrates on thence already dead players, or by now known Innocents, and quite easy targets.

#213 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549131&postcount=213)I guess I'm making the assumption that wolves are not overtly careless, and I guess really that could be a tactic as well.From this post I get the feeling that if Dury is a Wolf, her partner is more likely Lommy and not Nogrod. What do you think?

#279 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549298&postcount=279) Well, this looks good on Nerwen if Durelin is a Wolf.
Her talk about Rikae and Mac can be interpreted as setting them on each other. With the example.

#299 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549332&postcount=299) I really don't know why you bothered quoting Nerwen's initial in-character banter in your analysis, Nogrod. Straw-clutching a bit? Makes a good bit of it seem almost contrived... But I am glad someone's looking at Nerwen seriously.Who's clutching on what straws? The last sentence looks quite suspicious.

#388 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549459&postcount=388) I've mentioned this before and this is the main reason I suspected Durelin before. Her "'comrade in wolfyness'", "If we're wrong, we're pretty screwed." and "Rather boring confession, Mac." are, hmm, rather creepy. This looks like Durelin was confused by "Mac being a Wolf".
And likewise "Uh oh...Mac, I feel more sorry for you than this village." in her next post. I may be nasty to say this, but she trusted Mac to say the truth this time too quickly.

#433 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=549559&postcount=433) I'm a sucker for rants and when I first read this, I felt better about Durelin.
Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.Her point about the analysis looks quite weak. Somebody already said that her point about the "yay" could be a slip.

Well, what can I say. Several things that could be slips. I'm quite ready to vote for Durelin, or Nogrod.

Oh, I'm tired. Should have slept more last night. :/

EDIT: Xd with everything since my preveous post.

Durelin

03-03-2008, 10:24 AM

Yes, I did. Menel feels like a scapegoat, Mith I just have no idea. I hate going with the flow on that one, but I agree with Rikae when she said something along the lines of "there are two other wolves out there".

I am very frustrated with this game, as well. This is my lovely *return* to WW, and it's not only making me feel even dumber than my programming class does, but it's making me late for it. >< I will be back in about an hour...

Edit: Crossed with Volo.

Nerwen

03-03-2008, 10:31 AM

You know what drives me crazy? I've put more effort into this game than anyone - at least, it looks that way to me - and I've been nothing but wrong so far. Quite depressing, as well as embarrassing. If I'm wrong again toDay, I might just hang up my ... keyboard? ... and retire from WW. :rolleyes:

Cheer up. You've very nearly convinced me that it would be better not to vote Volo toDay– and that's taken some doing. I was virtually certain he was a wolf after yesterDay– I still think he's likely one, but maybe you're right and it's too much of a risk. Menel had sort of slipped off my radar yet again... maybe because he stopped attacking me and started agreeing with me.:rolleyes:

Besides, it’s not just you. I’ve been hopeless. I had the excuse of not being able to participate much earlier– but that doesn’t apply to the last two Days. In fact this whole game has been a disaster. I just think the whole village has been played for fools (village idiots?) all along.

About that "Volo looks worse than Durelin" argument– no, I didn't cross with Menel, it's actually what I thought. I'm not so sure now.

What do you think about Lommy, now? I keep (appropriately) flip-flopping on her. Read one way, some of her recent posts could be furry... and then I read them again and they seem quite innocent.

EDIT: X'd since Rikae at #471.

Thinlómien

03-03-2008, 10:33 AM

Somehow I'm beginning to be amused with this... really, are we all this frustrated? I mean, after I wrote that rant of mine and fetched some disgustingly sweet bubblegum I've been feeling much better. :D We might be frustrated, but let's not give up, regardless of what we are. It can still end well for either party.

And no, Volo, that was not a slip of any kind. I don't hold a grudge against the wolves (unless they win ;)) and I just couldn't phrase that in any better way.

edit: xed with Nerwie

Rikae

03-03-2008, 10:34 AM

One think I find especially creepy about toDay is that, just when everybody should have a wide focus (and just when it's easy to do so, with only 8 players), people seem to have divided themselves into groups and narrowed their focus, each, to pretty much a single person.
Lommy and Nogrod's behavior toDay I've already talked about... I get the feeling one or both of them are trying to absorb all my attention in their "duel" as well, to the exclusion of all else.
Nerwen and Menel's focus on Volo (and indirect defense of Durelin, while agreeing that she is suspicious) is another case.
Volo's latest post basically agrees with me. The cynic in me says "of course he agrees with you, you've been defending him." Previously, he seemed as fixated on Nerwen as she was on him.

Okaaay - possible connections. If you think I'm wrong, please point it out and why. I don't want to come to any erroneous conclusions. For the sake of completeness, I will include myself. It is not possible I'm a wolf from my perspective, but from yours (four of you, anyway) it is. :rolleyes:

I do not think Mith is a wolf. If she is, she is going to get my vote on Day 1 from now on.

Nogrod:
Good chance of being a wolf with:
Menel
Could be a wolf with:
Nerwen
Durelin
Less likely to be a wolf with:
Lommy
Volo
Mith
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Rikae

Nerwen:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Menel
Durelin
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Nogrod
Rikae (or am I likely? I've tended to agree with her. Sorry, can't be objective there - make your own call.)
Unlikely wolf with:
Volo
Mith

Menel:
Likely to be wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Durelin
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Unlikely a wolf with:
Volo
Rikae
Mith

Volo:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Rikae
Could be a wolf (more or less likely) with:
Nogrod
Lommy
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Menel
Nerwen (especially)
Durelin (Judging by Menel and Nerwen's behavior)
Mith

Lommy:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nobody in particular (that I've seen so far)
Could be wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo
Rikae
Menel (actually, slightly more so because of his Day 1 defense of her)
Durelin
Mith
Unlikely a wolf with:
Nobody

Durelin:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nerwen
Menel
Could be a wolf with:
Nogrod
Lommy
Mith
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Volo (indirectly)
Rikae

Rikae:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Volo
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Nerwen
Mith
Unlikely a wolf with:
Durelin
Menel
Nogrod

Mith:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nobody in particular
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Rikae
Durelin
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo
Menel

Okay, as far as I could see, Lommy could be a wolf with pretty much anyone, but doesn't look particularly like a wolf with anyone, makign her a risky choice for toDay's lynch. Volo is more unlikely to be a wolf simply because he doesn't seem to have a possible wolf-pack aside from Lommy or Nogrod and I, and we are unlikely to be wolves together. It could be that his companions have decided to sacrifice him, but would they do so with victory so close? In that case, Nerwen's attack on him looks innocentish because it began yesterday, Menel's less so. Nerwen and Menel may be wolves or Menel and Volo, but I don't think Nerwen and Volo are both.
Menel looks to have the most possible wolf-connections to me, and therefore looks the most likely to be a wolf on this scale.

EDIT: X'd with everything since Lommy's post 472