Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Macalaure]

Many months the learned and the reckless ventured north, far into the uncharted and snowy mountains of the farthest Forodwaith. At last they reached the remains of what was once Utumno, now a devastated landscape of pits and craters filled with ice. In ruin lay all the mighty walls and doors, destroyed in the victory of the Valar many ages ago.
It was difficult to find an entrance in the frozen debris, and they might have been forced to turn around and go back, had they not two rangers leading them who had searched the place before. Eagerly they climbed through the broken stones that half-covered what once was a tunnel covered by many feet of earth.
Had they been less eager, and more wary, maybe they still would have decided to turn again - for as they passed into the darkness, a dark shape passed over the faint stars of the breaking night. At its sight, maybe the learned would have found wisdom again and the reckless would have come to reason, but it did not come thus.

*~*

Utumno was exceeding deep, and once its pits were filled with fire and great hosts of the servants of Melkor. Now, no fire burnt save the torches of the adventurers from the south, and no evil being seemed to linger there anymore. The deeper they climbed, the less the cold became, and soon they were taking off all garments they brought against the eternal winter. They were looking for the deepest hall, where they deemed the secrets of Morgoth to be hidden.
The light of the torches flickered on the walls of the tunnels and stairways and once they left the wrecked paths behind, the fire revealed the ghastly figures carved into the stone - gruesome faces and devices of torture. Some noticed shadows that did not seem to move with the fire, but on their own. Doubting their eyes, they remained silent.

*~*

At last they reached a vast hall from which no further tracks outwent. One last door they saw on the other side, and they were drawn towards it. A single pedestal made of black stone stood there in the middle of a small chamber, and on it lay only one item glimmering as if a dark fire burned from within, and red gems hemmed into its round shape. They had found what they had been looking for. The one thing with which they thought the marring of the world could be undone.

Morgoth's Ring! one exclaimed.

Morgoth's Ring! in others followed in wondering voices.

Morgoth's Ring! all joined.

It's only a metaphor....

Shhhh!

*~*

Now that wehave what we came for, let us seek the way out again. I fear these forsaken places are not as deserted as they seem. Rikae advised and was agreed with.

I do not recall how long we have been journeying these dark and timeless corridors, with all the wrong turns we took and dead ends we encountered, but it will take many... Days and Nights... until the sun will shine on our faces again. Mac explained.

And if some things still linger in this maze, now that we hold their old master's treasure, they might come to hinder us. Who knows what powers still linger here - at the source of darkness. Rikae cautioned their group.

But even the two travelled rangers would not have guessed that the powers they were wary of listened to their very words and already waited to take their turn, once the first Night fell.

*~*

[Macalaure]

There are 2 wolves, 4 cobblers, 1 seer, and 1 cobbler assassin.

Wolves and cobblers work like they always do. The seer sees a cobbler as an ordo. The cobbler assassin chooses one villager to assassinate every night. If a cobbler is chosen, that cobbler is eliminated. If the target is not a cobbler, nothing happens and the assassin will receive no further information. Seer and assassin cannot communicate during the nights.

In case of a tie, the last to receive the final vote gets lynched.

There are no retractable votes

Deadline is 8pm GMT.

Game will start August 18th.


List of Players:

Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Kitanna - phantom's business partner
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Gwathagor - warrior librarian
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
Lalaith - absent-minded professor
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Groin Redbeard - dwarven miner
Mithalwen - factotum

[Macalaure]

Having an uncertain feeling of danger, the expedition hasted through the dark tunnels as swift as they may. A lot farther did they come than Rikae and Mac expected. On their way to the deepest hall before, their often eccentric, absent-minded, and pointless group had wasted much time obtaining rare antiquities and collecting junk. At last the rangers made them halt, for the aged among the loremen started to lag behind.

We must rest for tonight, to save our strength for the coming days. said Mac.

The adventurers quickly prepared something approximating a camp and it did not take them long to fall asleep after they had lied down. But around them, there were things that needed no rest and no sleep. They had slept an unwholesome sleep for ages, and now they desired nothing more than to take revenge upon the thieves that stole their old master's highest treasure.

When all were sound asleep two of these dreadful spirits entered the bodies of two of our heroes, corrupting their minds and, with the remnant of the evil power still abiding in the deeps of Utumno, altered their bodies. Henceforth at night they took the form of werewolves, willing and able to slowly slay those who sought to exit from their realm. The beasts woke, bared their teeth, and withdrew to a corner to plot how to best reach their goal.

*~*

But more happened during this night. Other sprits, of less potency, descended into the minds of four more. They did not have the power to rule over them, or even their bodies, but they confused their hosts and dreams entered their thoughts that they had never dreamt before. They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing. Then, before their eyes, they saw the Dark Lord himself, awful to behold, and they fell to their knees in awe.

What did you come here for, into my abide? his voice asked, but none dare answer, for suddenly their plans made them felt like traitors.

This is the last realm in Arda that is free of the arrogance and deceit of the Valar. Here, you do not call upon their names. Here you curse them! Tell me now who it is that you worship!

In terror and faint voices they replied: Melkor!

That is right. You are here at the source of darkness, and only darkness is worshipful here, and only darkness has power - and it was power that you came here for, power to undo my work?

Master, forgive us, we erred.

How shall I trust you? Maybe if you speak to me the words that my servants swore to me of old, I shall believe your vows.

And so they spoke:

Death to light, to law, to love!
Cursed be moon and stars above!
May darkness everlasting old
that waits outside in surges cold
drown Manwë, Varda, and the sun!
May all in hatred be begun,
and all in evil ended be,
in the moaning of the endless Sea!

And then they were revealed to the deadly plan. Yet, they did not learn of the identity of the two accursed ones, for Melkor's trust knows strict borders.

*~*

But even more dreams were dreamt that night, and those were of more beauty. One of the adventurers strayed through gardens of green and of colorful flowers and old trees, and peace came to his heart. At the time that he felt most glad and fulfilled, a gentle voice spoke to him.

I apologise to interrupt your joy, but I have called you to walk in my garden for more a more important reason than your enjoyment. You and your group are in the most dire danger! Foolish you were to seek for the secrets of the one I do not name. Now evil has conspired against you to bring you to your bitter end. Inside the evil dungeon even my power is restricted, so among all of you I can only grant one this gift. Henceforth, for as long as you should still live, you may walk in my gardens every night, and you shall wake up wiser than you fell asleep each time. May this wisdom help you and your friends.

Then the voice fell silent and did not answer when our adventurer asked for its name.

*~*

Another one of our heroes was allowed to stray in Lórien's gardens, too. But Lórien had no gift of his own to give to this one when he spoke to him.

Welcome to my gardens, weary wanderer. I have called you to walk in my garden tonight, for there is somebody who seeks to talk to you...

Alright, can I speak now?

Yes, you can. He can hear you now.

Just like this?

Yes Oromë, please, just go ahead.

Well... *ahem*... so... You were foolish to come to that place! The power of Morgoth will never undo the deeds of Morgoth. Only more suffering you will bring into the world, and first onto yourselves. The Valar have decided to come to your help, in the measure that we are capable of. You shall receive a hallowed weapon of mine. It is invisible to anybody but yourself, and it will kill anybody who pretends a fair face, but does not support you inside their hearts. It does not slay the utter evil or good... are you sure he can really hear me?

He heard everything, and hopefully understood it as well.

That is good. Now, to end this, what do I have to pre... *clack*

*~*


Night 1 begins. Wolves: plot. Seer: dream. Others: sleep.

[Rikae]

Rikae and Mac took turns guarding the entrance of the chamber the group was sleeping in. Would they have devoted more of their attention towards the inside of the chamber instead of the outside, maybe this story would have ended right here, but they were oblivious to what happened to some of their fellows inside. The wolves, on the other hand, knew two rangers would be able to thwart all their effort. They needed to go.

Mac was sleeping soundly, and Rikae quietly hummed a tune of old.

A thousand years ago, or maybe even 33
the ancient fraggles wrestled with a strange catastrophe
every time they wandered down a certain tunnel lane
one by one they disappeared like bubbles down a drain
a darkness closed around them and they never came again

A squeeking sound interrupted her song. Something was there....
Rikae nudged Mac awake, and expressed the foreboding that they would never leave this place alive. He casually remarked:

It's not so bad!

Seeing Rikae looking at him strangely, he added:

Well, I'm not saying I'd like to build a summer home here, but the carvings are actually quite lovely.

Suddenly, a dark shape moved into the passageway before them. Instantly, they were on their feet, skewering it repeatedly with their swords until it collapsed on the stone floor. The light from the chamber beyond fell on the creature, revealing it as nothing more than a rat of unusual size.

From the sound it made, I assumed it would be something even bigger - a werewolf, I feared. said Rikae.

Mac replied: A werewolf? That is more than unlikely, even in this place. What should it have done all this time? On what should it have fed? Rats? I doubt th...

No more words came out of Mac's throat, for huge fangs pierced it from behind, took his breath, and killed him. Rikae, at almost the same moment, was grabbed and her mouth shut by a large and hairy paw. The cruelty of what happened then is beyond this storyteller to recount.

*~*

Late did the members of the expedition awake. They expected to be woken by their two brave rangers and they walked around calling for them, but no answer came. Only when they stepped outside the chamber they saw what became of them. The floor was filled with pools of blood. Blood covered the walls as well. Tiny pieces of two human bodies lay all over the place. Then they looked up to the ceiling and thus horror was taught to them. For there, written in the blood of their victims, the werewolves wrote the words.

Calli lelyal ostosse!

All held their breath in dreadful awe. Only Formendacil spoke up:

Heroses going in the city? What is that supposed to mean?

It's supposed to be "Heroes go home! came a voice from behind.

Everybody turned around in an instant.

"Who said that?"

No word was uttered.

This is ridiculous. Formendacil protested. What is "Calli" supposed to mean? Plural of "Callo" is "Callor"! And "lelyal" is in the completely wrong form. We are given an order, so the imperative has to be used: "á lelya"! "Osto" makes the least sense of all! If it's supposed to mean "home" it has to be "mar"! And since we are told to go there, the allative case has to be used, not the locative: "marra"!

So enraged Formendacil was, that he took some of the blood inside the pools and drew the correct phrase upon the wall. Slowly the others backed away from him...

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Kitanna - phantom's business partner
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Gwathagor - warrior librarian
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
Lalaith - absent-minded professor
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Groin Redbeard - dwarven miner
Mithalwen - factotum

Day 1 has begun. Everybody talk!

[Nogrod]

Finally Nogrod the pointless philosopher walked forwards and addressed the others.

"Fear not for philosophy will offer consolation to us all. I mean that one should not be afraid of something that isn't plain real and concrete, right? Now can you prove these miss-spelling monsters do exist? No you can't. Maybe the deaths of our rangers are just results of our imagination and they're not actually dead, or maybe the Valar have taken them to their lands and are just trying our faith? Or maybe these are just pools of a random red liquid that pours from the veins of the aghastly halls in memory of the foul deeds and murder commited here millenia ago? Or maybe there is no real world but only your mind that is tricked by far greater powers – or just by this hollow place which wishes to lead us astray? …

Uhh… just a minute… oh yes, our fear is more like pointing to the possibility of those monsters being real and within the realm of possibilities anything... well at least almost anything is somewhat... erm... possible? As creatures able to think we are also able to leave the "here-and-now" and to both remember the past and to anticipate the future… So a major form of fear may arise from the anticipation of a possibility becoming actual. Thence the object of our fear might not be the existence of those beasts and their threat on us here which could be refuted with showing the impossibility of proving the necessary nature of their being, but the possibility of them becoming actual in the future or at least the existence of that threat in our minds. So the absence of their presence doesn’t yet solve the problem then… Now, this is a dilemma. Just a minute…

But a philosopher once said that death in itself is not frightening for it is only our fear of death that frightens us. The things in world happen and are neither frightful or delighting as such - for they are necessary – it's only the emotions and beliefs we attach to things existing or possibly happening that give them their value and our anticipation that makes us fear or hunger for them. So the fear nor it's object are not in the world but inside you all yourselves. It's up to you to decide whether you should be afraid of your own thoughts or not.... or...

Oh my… I seem to have ended up into the side of repressive ideologies that blame the individuals and leave the oppressive system untouched. The reality of evil and suffering should not be forgotten indeed! It is emancipation and enlightenment that we need and not apologies for the necessity and unavoidability of our unjust situation. Let's fight this out and free ourselves as subjects of our own lives and declare our rights against the evil oppressors and the violent system!

But then again: how to fight against violence and oppression that are not actual or present but are merely enclosed in the fear and evil existing primarily within us ourselves as structures of our own thought laid there by the oppressive class and it's cultural hegemony? The fight needs an object as well, the thing we're fighting against – and an analysis as to where this evil arises from and what are its mechanics so that we could outdo its effects? So we should should fight against ourselves first then, beat our inner demons? Gah, I'm afraid I lost my point…if there ever was any, I mean...

Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery in any case!

Sorry. I got a bit carried away as well. I'll think a bit more if you allow me..."

[the phantom]

My name is Indiana Jo- erm... I mean, Phantom, I'm an obtainer of rare antiquities, and I'm here to help!

*silence*

Oh, who am I kidding? I'm just here for adventure and loot. I hardly know any of you people. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them.

First, if I read the signs correctly, there are only two of them! Much nicer than three or four.

Second, they have helpers. But they don't know each other, so the Wolves are bound to kill one of them. And without even trying to we'll probably lynch one. And as that bloke in our dreams told us, we have a Cobbler Hunter helping us, and he's likely to peg one eventually. So forget the Cobblers. The Wolves are the concern here.

A couple of things- why did an unemployed bum come on this excursion. Up to no good I'd say.

And a pointless philosopher? What does he get out of this?

Or a blind astronomer? She's obviously not going to see anything of interest down here.

And neither is a marine zoologist. Very fishy.

I would suspect the absent minded professor's reasons for being here, but I expect she came by accident.

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

Lastly, what's Conan the Librarian doing here? Shouldn't he be extracting late fees by the point of his sword?

[the phantom]

One more thing- is it really smart for all of us to wear invisibility cloaks? It's really annoying trying to talk to people that you can't see. Plus it seems to me the WWs with their keen senses of smell and hearing suffer less than us from this lack of sight.

[Durelin]

Heroes? What heroes?

All we have so far is some braincase trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people, and a scruffy looking treasure hunter with a head too big for his fedora.

And me. But I don't count. Don't trust me to discern the good from the bad, I'm only used to working with really dead people and their stuff.

[Eönwë]

One more thing- is it really smart for all of us to wear invisibility cloaks? It's really annoying trying to talk to people that you can't see. Plus it seems to me the WWs with their keen senses of smell and hearing suffer less than us from this lack of sight.

That is one of the conditions of WW, you know.

edit: x-ed with Dury. And I meant conventions.

[the phantom]

The dynamics of this little pickle we're in are quite different than other villages I've heard of. I'm still trying to get my head around all the possibilities.

On one hand the Seer has less to fear. In olden times if you'd spot one WW you'd want to lay low and continue searching for another one, because there were many. This time if the Seer finds one WW then bang- we're halfway home. Heck, he may even come right out after finding one and just sort of assume that the village is competent enough to lynch one measly WW after he's gone.

If I were the Seer I'd be inclined to take that route. However, I can't help but think that I'd do that only because it would take all the pressure off of me and put it on the villagers, and I could kick back the rest of the game and say, "I did my part". Other people with more time and energy on their hands might be inclined to lay low and attempt to collect both WWs.

I'm thinking about it, and I'd say that taking the easy way out is probably not the recommended action to take in this village. However, laying absolutely low after finding one WW is also out of the question in this village. In a village with three WWs or more, it's worth the risk to forget about leaving clues and hints while you search for a second WW. But with only two WWs I don't think the Seer can pass up a WW so easily.

I'm not saying to scream it from the rooftop, but hint strongly enough that, should you die, the WW will be known beyond doubt.

As far as the Cobblers go, forget them. They have three shots at dying every cycle, and I can't imagine they'll dodge the bullet for long. They should be down to a manageable number shortly.

And don't be worried about a Cobbler leading you astray. They don't know any more than you, so they're as likely to be wrong as anyone. There are only a few situations where we need to pay attention to them. For instance, if one is pretending to be gifted. But that will only happen in certain situations and we can discuss it when one pops up.

[the phantom]

and a scruffy looking treasure hunter
Oh, and I suppose I'm a nerf-herder as well?

[the phantom]

That is one of the conditions of WW, you know.
Yeah, I've played once or twice.

[Eönwë]

Yeah, I've played once or twice.

I sort of knew that, in case you hadn't guessed.
And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?

[the phantom]

trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people
Ah, so that is what he was trying to say. Lost me completely. But then I was never much for philosophy. I prefer to solve my problems via punching.

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure. But I roughed them up nicely.

Or at least I would've if Tom Bombadil hadn't shown up and rescu- I mean taken care of them before I had the chance. Silly old chap. I had the situation completely under control.

[the phantom]

And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?
So YOU are the one that took them?!

I travelled all through the caves of the Misty Mountains looking for Bilbo's lost buttons! I found the very door he escaped out of and nearly got captured by a pack of goblins, and came away with nothing to show for it! Grrr... I hate it when someone beats me to a treasure.

But yes, I'll take them. Talk to Kitanna. She handles trades and such for me. Has a knack for getting good deals.

[Durelin]

Oh, and I suppose I'm a nerf-herder as well?

I tried to be a little subtle. A little...

So the cobblers can help lynch a wolf, and the wolves can always kill a cobbler. There's only two wolves and there's a seer.

This should be an interesting show! I only wish there were more risks involved for the cobbler assassin...or any risks at all for that matter!

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

[Nogrod]

1. There is evil among us.

1.1. There are two wolves.

1.1.2. There are only two wolves against 16 people.

1.1.2.1 It seems they are not knowledgeable of their helpers but only of each other.

1.2. There are four cobblers.

1.2.1. The cobblers - adding with the number of wolves - can create a lot of havoc in any one voting we make.

1.2.1.1. Many times those cobblerish-souls can be kind of ignored until the last Days.

1.2.1.2. This is not one of those times as it seems they know each others identity and are numerous (look also 1.2.1.).

1.2.1.2.1. Unless I read the narration too hastily as it says only that They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

1.2.1.2.2. The beginning of the sentence states it quite clearly that "saw each other" eg. they know each others identity, but the rest of the sentence kind of puts that in some doubt.

1.2.1.2.3. If the interpretation I made is false in the point 1.2.1.2. then the nasty scenario loses some of its potency - which would be good.

1.2.1.3 The antique-dealer is at least partly wrong. Whatever the interpretation, the cobblers are a major problem even if we agreed that the wolves are our main enemies.

1.2.2. The cobblers' possibilities of creating havoc is lessened a little by the fact that they do not know the identities of the wolves and that is good.

1.3. We have six enemies here.

1.3.1. That makes it one third of our total.

1.3.1.1. The sum total of us will be decreasing Day by Day.

1.3.1.2. It will decrease Night by Night to be exact.

1.3.2. It is a new situation indeed.

1.3.2.1. New situations are challenges that might prove either way.

1.3.2.2. Let's hope this will turn out the good way.

1.4. We may be in trouble.

1.4.1. The greatest peril being that the cobblers may twist an important vote with co-operation in a situation they feel safe enough on later Days.

1.4.1.1. If the speculation in 1.2.1.2.1.-3. is right then this danger lessens.

1.4.2. The chances of the cobblers can be denied from them if we are careful and witty enough... and lucky... and the rules favour us.

1.4.2.1. I'd look for nice bandwagons even more closely this time.

1.4.2.2. Especially in the first Days.

1.4.2.2.1. Which throws even more responsibility to the innocents around here for choosing the easy lynch will be exactly the way the cobblers would like to save themselves on the first Days before their time actually comes to perform their ugly duties.

1.4.2.2.2. Differentiating between a lazy / self-preserving innocent and a cobbler will be a task in this situation.

1.4.3. There's no greater light than those of hope and determination.


2. There is much good around.

2.1. There are 12 totally innocent souls against the malice.

2.1.1. Of those twelve two have special powers to help us.

2.1.1.1. Sadly they don't know of each other.

2.1.2. The four lesser evils will be counted as innocents in any tallies if it gets to that point.

2.1.2.1. The mathematical ratio of evil vs. the good is 2 to 16.

2.1.2.1.1. The effect of those four innocent but cobbler persons may twist the voting though (look especially 1.2.1.2.).

2.2. We innocents need not lie or fabricate things.

2.2.1. Forced cases should bring forwards alarm-bells as they are ones the wolves and cobblers need to do.

2.2.2. But how to differentiate those from tests and trials we innocents need to do if the villains want to stay quiet and uncontroversial?

2.2.2.1. A load of people just nodding to each other is the best scenario for the baddies to hide within.

2.2.2.2. And we have six of them trying to hide!

2.2.2.3. Or to be agreeable.

2.3. Let's stay true and sharp.


End of part I.


EDIT: X'd with everything after tp's second post...

[Eönwë]

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure.

Ah, so you show an interest in the Barrow-Downs, eh? Well I'll throw in Sam's belt buckle, the one he lost there. Half price and that's a good offer.

Anyway, where were we? Oh yes, about finding the werewolves.

edit: x-ed since tp's #14

[Eönwë]

Well if we're going Ic, then tp is least likely to be a WW. He is too ego-centric and self-obsessed to allow any spirit to enter him.

Philnogsopher, on the other hand is hiding behind the mask of logic. What is he hiding underneath? May there be fangs there? Or he could be double bluffing. Or just simply not bluffing at all. Only time will tell...

And Dury, well, it's a first day, but she already seems to be slippping under my radar. And she's done a just under a sixth of all game posts. I can't remember any. But then, its's just very early day one.


Closing note: It's day one, and there's nothing better to do with all this useless (until later) time...

edit: Didnn't x with anyone. Am I the only one here or are you all hiding under your invisibilty cloaks?

[Nogrod]

1.2.1.3.1. the phantom is right that the cobblers face three times the throwing of a lot per Day/Night cycle and that clearly increases the probability of them being killed at one or another point.

1.2.1.3.1.1. the wolves face the challenge only once per Day/Night cycle and the innocents face it twice.

1.2.1.3.2. But if the cobblers make it the first one or two Days they will become a threat indeed.

1.2.1.3.2.1. A lot more threathening one they normally do being alone in the field.

1.2.1.3.3. I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.

1.2.1.3.3.1. As tp correctly states: getting one wolf is half the victory.

1.2.1.3.4. We'll be a lot smarter on Day 2 or 3 - those of us around then that is.

1.2.1.4. Let's keep our eyes open for the cobblers as well.

[Nogrod]

1.2.1.4.1. I'm looking at the phantom right now...

[the phantom]

Overall, good stuff Nogrod. The pointless philosopher isn't entirely pointless, I see. But I must question this-
1.2.1. The cobblers - adding with the number of wolves - can create a lot of havoc in any one voting we make.
Nah. I don't think so. There are only two WWs. That's hardly voting power.

And the Cobblers don't know anything. They can't vote with each other or with the WWs except by guessing.

I also disagree slightly about the self-preservation band-wagons. As far as I know, every last person in this village is quite interested in self-preservation. It is true that the goal of a Cobbler is to stay alive long enough to cause havoc, but look at who else would like to stay alive...

1) The WWs, obviously.

2) The Seer, our greatest ally.

3) The Cobbler Hunter, our guard against their back-stabbing.

4) Innocents. The goal of an innocent is to die during the Night rather than the Day. For if they die at Night, they have successfully granted the gifteds another night of activity.

I'm going to vote for who I think is a Werewolf, but guess what- if my neck is on the line I absolutely will band-wagon to save my neck, and I think every last man and woman in this village would do the same. The entire goal of a lynch is to kill a WW. Therefore if you are in the lynch line and know that you are not a WW, you are defeating the entire purpose of the lynch if you don't do everything in your power to avoid death.

At least that is my interpretation of the proper way to behave.

[the phantom]

I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.
Yes, I am kind of downplaying them. If they somehow survive the slaughter early on they could certainly do some devilish things.

But, here's the thing- there's nothing we can do about that! I think we can all agree that we can't waste lynches on suspected Cobblers. So why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter. But what if the Cobbler Hunter bites it? Think about that before you go spouting off "So and so is probably a Cobbler because of x, y, and z", for then the WWs will know precisely who to keep alive.

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things. Odds say their numbers will decrease quickly. And even if several of them stay alive, they're worthless without WWs to help. We only need to lynch correctly twice! I would recommend focusing on that point.

[Nogrod]

There are only two WWs. That's hardly voting power.

And the Cobblers don't know anything. They can't vote with each other or with the WWs except by guessing.

Okay. Here's what we "know".
they did not learn of the identity of the two accursed ones, for Melkor's trust knows strict borders.They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.So if the first sentence in the latter quote is what counts then the cobblers know each other's identities and they can form a block of four votes. With some good guessing - not entirely far-fetched - they might form a block of six which will be enough to hang anyone in here. I don't mean they're going to do it toDay - or maybe they will just try to fool us doing exactly that which we would not believe? But later in the game the threat is considerable. Six votes (or five, or four...) is a mighty weapon used in the middle of uncertainty that is the existential condition of us others.

The problem seems to be how to interpretate the ending of that quote about the vision being too blurry to reveal anything while the sentence before says "they saw each other" plain and simple.

Just to be sure I wouldn't ignore the worst case scenario as otherwise this might be technically / probabilitywise too easy for us to win. So I'm afraid we're against cobblers who know each other and that makes them dangerous with their four votes and the aching to vote with the wolves which they could get right at one point or another.


Edit: I just saw the phantom's latest. Yes you're correct and I do agree with you: the wolves are our top-priority. *News!*

But if all the cobblers (or three of them) are alive on Day3 and they know each other we're in the killing-zone as they are then quite free to roam... So they are a real threat and not something to be ignored.

[the phantom]

By the way, Nog, I'm not proposing ignoring Cobblers completely. As I stated earlier, there are certain situations where we will need to discuss possible Cobbler ploys, but right now is not one of those times. Right now they don't exist as far as I'm concerned.
Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.
Heh- or as a demonstration of our complete ignorance, we could all vote for who we think is the Seer and stand just as good a chance of not lynching the Seer as always. :D

[Eönwë]

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them.

Well, at least he's being honest about it and not hiding under lists (especially those with fake latin names *hint, hint*).

And I agree with you on some point, tp. We only have two wolves, so if we aim for them, we're much more likely to win. And what are cobblers? Just misguidedd innocents. I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

edit: x-ed since Nog's last non-list post. Sorry Nog.

[the phantom]

I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."
Indeed.

And I see that we really need to settle this quote, Nog.
They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.
All right- let's talk this through.

I go down to the docks to watch for someone on a boat. It's very foggy.

I see a boat arrive. I see someone on the boat.

Question- does that mean I can identify the person? Pick their face out of a line-up?

Nope.

Seeing someone does not equate with recognizing someone.

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

[Gwathagor]

Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.

[Nogrod]

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things.Sadly one can't just only "think of the wolves" either as they don't give themselves up to be thought everytime and then the other choice is to be just embarrased... :rolleyes:

It is what people say and do that give you the cards you can and need to play with. Sometimes some people look really wolvish and you're more than happy to go after them but sometimes you're totally perplexed and lost as the wolves play so neatly that you have no clue about them.

So:
wolves = target #1
cobblers = target #2

Let's not forget our secondary targets as with the passing of Days they might become our target #1's.

I guess we're talking about the same thing tp but just from a different angle.

ToDay we need to go for a wolf. Or if we have a clear hunch for a cobbler and no idea about the wolves, then for a cobbler.

But just trying to ignore the cobblers (no, no, you're not saying it tp, this is just an argument) and taking great chances with a lynching of an unprobable wolf we're not at all at ease with, is folly as well. Let's just remember the cobblers would love to join any wagons suiting their hunches, the more so if they knew each other and could play it tactically... Knowledge is power here.


The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong. I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18? Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage - with the cobbler-assassin and all? I'd say the presence of a cobbler-assassin speaks for cobblers to know each other and to form a major threat.

Hopefully the mods will enlighten us on this matter... or maybe it's their cruel plan to leave us guessing about it?

Anyway it's 2 AM here and I'm going to sleep. I will be back but tomorrow (RL) my evening is pretty full... I'll post and vote though and hopefully be able to hang around the deadline as well eventually.

[Formendacil]

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

My dear the phantom, it's summer. This is the time snowbirds spend up north.

Though, granted, there aren't mosquitoes in Ariz... I mean, in Umbar.

And it's rather chilly.

Curse those dead Rangers for talking me into this! How am I supposed to get back to Annúminas in time for my motorcad... I mean, my waggon train, back to Ariz... I mean, Umbar? Dying on us like that, really! It's most inconvenient.

As for how I know so many languages? Are you insinuating, Mr. the Phantom, that we men of the land can't handle tough academics? The Valar know we have time for it, sitting there on our tracto... I mean, walking behind the plow.

Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read!:p

As for why I'm along... I'm a retiree. Sight-seeing tours are what we do!

Now, if you'll excuse me, my senior citizen's bladder ain't what it used to be...

[Lalaith]

Lalaith absently ambled into the group, rubbed her hair distractedly and peered down through her possibly non-canonical pince-nez.

"hmm...this is a pretty pickle. We have, let us see now...yes, two killers amongst us and four primed to aid them through bafflement and confusion.
Now, on this point, Nogrod my dear chap, I would like an explanation of 2.1.2.1, for while I am a professor of ancient lore and not mathematics, would you not say the ratio is 1:3 rather than 2:16? And while we are on the subject of bafflement and confusion masquerading as clarity and helpfulness, the Tractatus format is not easily beaten, eh?
Well, no matter.
First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion
On this I am inclined to agree, at least while one is enduring them. But afterwards, they can be very useful, at an empirical level, when developing a hypothesis. But of course, we are seeking four cobblers as well as two wolves and on Day One it is remarkably easy for anyone to look like a cobbler.

why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter
Now then, Indy-phantom, this seems somewhat glib reasoning. There are four of the wretches and for the Cobbler Hunter to catch them all is highly improbable.
I seem to remember a similar case, now, in the lore-books...let me think, Roa I think the afreet was named, she wreaked havoc around the group until she was caught and stopped. Four such determined mavericks at work, at once, would make our task near-impossible.
So, where was I? Ah yes. To sum up, those of us who are left tomorrow, and in the days that follow, need to sift through the records and attempt to distinguish between wilfully rather than just accidentally unhelpful behaviour, as well as the usual signs of wolvery."
At this, Lalaith wandered off, reading a dusty tome and muttering in truly stereotypical style.

[Groin Redbeard]

Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

[the phantom]

Wow. I expected to come home and find a couple of pages worth of yapping. But not so.
I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong.
So you still think the Cobblers might know each other? We'll just have to disagree on that then.
I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18?
Yes, and no cursed villager either. That does seem unbalanced.

But of course there is no Ranger either, and the WW Hunter has been changed to a Cobbler Hunter.
Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage
I think the Cobblers' ability to mislead us is worthless, because obviously at no point can they ever have concrete information about anyone's identity, and thus they cannot knowingly mislead us.

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

It is my guess that this is what Mac and Rikae had in mind when they chopped the WWs down to two. They were banking on Cobblers wasting a couple of lynches. If they're extremely lucky, three lynches.

The Cobbler Hunter has quite a decision to make. Go for people laying low, banking on catching a Cobbler who wants to make a move towards the end, or go for people who look likely to be lynched, because perhaps that is exactly what they want.

What the Cobblers actually do depends completely on what sort of person they are. Do they calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages?

We'll see.

[Nerwen]

Suddenly Nerwen, her pale face eerily lit by the blazing torch she carried, appeared in the gloom of the chamber's entrance.

"Oh, hello," she said, stepping carefully over the tragically mutilated remains, "I've just been having a look around, to see what I can find. No offence, phantom, but you and I are business rivals... and I don't think I want to purchase my treasures from a self-described seller of pointless fakes.

Now, this place echoes a lot, and I picked up quite a bit of this cobbler-related conversation as I made my way through the tunnels.

My opinion is that the much-talked about sentence
They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing. means that the cobblers know of each other's existence, but not identity.

I will share further reflections with you once I've cleaned up a bit... I mean, it doesn't seem right just to leave what's left of our Rangers all over the place..."

And Nerwen started gathering up the pieces.

EDIT: X'd with phantom.

[Formendacil]

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

I hope that you lot are among the first of many to see such good sense. As the old almanacs will show, I've a mighty strong dislike for those who go around preaching that they will catch wolves, using their mighty skills on Day 1.

If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

I hope everyone's paying heed to this... on about Day 3 (if the Phantom hasn't died by then), pay close heed to his actions... and if they stay the same, kill him as a Cobbler.

Yes, yes the Phantom sir, we know full well that you are:

calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages

All of the above.

You'll calculate the odds, play it by feel, and make bold moves.

We'll probably have to lynch you by the end of ToMorrow, but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it.

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.:p

[Nerwen]

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

Nerwen looked up from scrubbing the blood off the floor. "Um... yes... agreed... but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?"

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil.

[the phantom]

but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it
I doubt it. If you live, that would mean that you win, right?

So living to regret it seems to be impossible. ;)
Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.
Well, we'd better just call the game right now then, of course. We lose. :D
but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?
Absolutely. ;)

[the phantom]

Okay, Nerwen, I suppose you deserve a more serious answer than that. :D

First- the Cobblers, if they take their roles seriously, have already thought of the Cobbler role much more than everyone else, and so it is likely that everything I pointed out is already known to them.

I am fully aware that perhaps one of the Cobblers might find my posts to be instructive, but I think it is worth it to make all of these thoughts known to the entire village, as perhaps it will help multiple villagers organize their thoughts.

And then there's this- listening to me could very well help them play better, but if they play according to my advice then we shall know exactly what to look for, correct? Ideas alone won't give the game to the Cobblers. They have to be able to pull off the moves better than we can spot them. I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree with the phantom. There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can. As long as they are muddying the waters and inhibiting clarity of thought among the group, they are helping the wolves, since we're not likely to lynch wolves by accident, given the odds.

If I was a cobbler who was unaware of the identity of my fellows, this is what I would do.

[Gwathagor]

To clarify, I don't think the cobblers know who each other are.

[the phantom]

There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can.
You can only mislead when you actually know the correct direction.

If you have no clue as to anyone's identity, how do you know that the person in line to be lynched isn't in fact the Seer? So why try to muddy things up when perhaps things are already going well for the WWs?

People always go on about Cobblers causing confusion, but I don't buy it. The fact is, we already don't know anything. How more confused can you possibly get? There is no need to add extra confusion, and there is no guarantee that attempting to cause confusion would even help their cause, so what's the point? It seems like wasted effort to me.

However, you are right that there is a fourth major thing the Cobblers can do to help the WWs. But it is something that if brought up would probably help the Cobblers more than the village, because I really think that this particular thing is likely something that hasn't occured to more than a couple of the Cobblers.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

Phantom says we can't get any more confused, so why would the Cobblers waste their time trying to confuse us? But I say that the longer we go on, the more information we have, so that the less confused we are. In my opinion, Cobblers will be easier to spot the longer we're down here, but by the same token, Cobblers will be much more dangerous the longer we're down here.

...If you'll excuse me, I need to find some water. All this stone is giving me a headache. Roanes aren't meant for extended periods underground.

*drags off his sealskin*

[the phantom]

Ah, so you're saying that the Cobblers might try to confuse us about things such as village rules and such?

Well yes, I suppose if a situation arises that they might do such a thing, but it seems rather risky to me, seeing as people who know better can catch them on it quite quickly. They would have to play it off as if they just didn't know the rules well. But then that would mean not stating their misinformation with too much conviction.

As for the rest of it-
by presenting other options
I see no harm in anyone presenting options. It would encourage opinions and debate.
by obstructing rational thought
That seems rather nebulous. How exactly do you do such a thing? How does one actually change the manner in which another individual processes information?

I think you and others are assigning far too many powers to the Cobblers. Their power lies in the manner of their deaths. If they die early or die at night, then the WWs likely lose. If they dodge death or die exclusively during the days, then we have our work cut out.

[Gwathagor]

I'm done arguing the point. You use your criteria, I'll use mine.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I'm here...finally.

First thoughts:

Nogrod is hurting my eyes with all those 1.2.1.1's or whatever..

I notice that the phantom has once again become the center of attention. :p

When it comes to who to lynch, of course wolves are our priority. We should do everything to seek the wolves out because lynching them wins us the game. But we also must remember that there are only two wolves...and while it is a big advantage to us, during these first Days it's going to be tricky to actually lynch one, especially with cobblers around. With so few wolves, we do have lee-way to lynch inaccurately. And since the cobblers are also our enemy, if we strongly suspect someone to be a cobbler, we should lynch them right away rather than save them for the hunter. Yeah we'd be lynching someone counted as a villager, but they are still an enemy and it's better to get a cobbler out of the way rather than risk lynching an innocent. And by doing so, we'd give the hunter a chance to seek another cobbler. After all, there are four of them.

Just because cobbler don't know the identity of the wolves, I wouldn't put them out of the picture. In my experience, I've seen the role of cobbler play out as a mixed bag. Sometimes the cobbler can end up hurting their allies more than helping them (though I actually haven't seen that too often). In other times, the cobbler can be the one who wins the game for the wolves. So yes, they can be dangerous.

One thing we need to watch out for is Day 1...or rather, toDay. So often, one player makes a post that looks suspicious and suddenly everyone starts voting them simply because they can't find any better suspects so early on. Wolves have always taken advantage of that, but cobblers can especially use that opportunity to bandwagon and lynch an innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Hello everybody. I was investigating penguins and their underwater flying, but now I'm here...

First off, I must agree with tp, Nerwen and Gwath (and others?) that the cobblers probably don't know each other. I think the quote says, rather clearly, that they know they have allies and how many of them there are, but not who they are exactly. Mr Nogrod looks quite cobblerish for not getting the point and also because of going unnecessarily deep to in-character and by making all those very confusing lists of his... I don't claim he doesn't make sense, for he mostly does, but something in the floody and badly arranged manner disturbs me. It looks very much like something he could do as a cobbler.

Another one who seems a little eyebrow-raising to me is Form... I mean, the guy is obviously a fraud for he says: Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read! while we all know that the word "Dúnedain" is plural form and the singular would be "Dúnadan"... and that's definitely an Elvish word! :p

Anyway, I think we have no trouble. Two wolves are easy to find - or should be easy to find - and after that it doesn't matter that there's a horde of cobblers. By the way, I disagree with the phantom with their ability to cause chaos and confusion. They can very well do that. Present points that seem reasonable and make villagers think about them just to realise they don't make any sense. Make weird last minute votings. Write long nonsense posts to dull others' minds and to appear helpful while actually saying nothing. Stay silent for so long that they become enigmas. Those are just a few examples. I think we shouldn't underestimate their capacity. They can be very dangerous. But the good thing is that they're finished as soon as the wolves are. Also, if it should ever happen that the cobbler hunter has to come out (let's hope that won't happen though), s/he can provide us with a list of non-cobblers - if there have been any failed kills.

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then.Well, I can agree about slips of tongue being a way to hunt wolves, but we shouldn't count on that because all wolves don't make slips and some people make wolvish slips even if they're innocent. :rolleyes:

Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!...and beware of those who stay so silent that you can't form a picture of them. The Holy Old Debate!

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

It feels so good to be back in all this mess again. I think I did miss the game. :D


edit: xed with Brinn - Hi Brinn! *waves*

[Eönwë]

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"
Slightly ironic, don't you think?


Ok, well at least more people have spoken up. But it's day one, so anything could happen.

And look at the post-counts. I wonder who's ahead :rolleyes::

the phantom 16
Nogrod 6
Eönwë 5
Gwathagor 5
Macalaure 3
Formendacil 2
Nerwen 2
Durelin 2
Brinniel 1
Groin Redbeard 1
Thinlómien 1
Lalaith 1
Shastanis Althreduin 1
Rikae 1

edit: x-èd with Lommy

[Eönwë]

Another one who seems a little eyebrow-raising to me is Form... I mean, the guy is obviously a fraud for he says: while we all know that the word "Dúnedain" is plural form and the singular would be "Dúnadan"... and that's definitely an Elvish word!
I was wondering when someone else would notice that. but wouldn't it be more correct to say "a Dúnadan" or if he's sticking with the plural he could have just added "of the" to get "I am of the Dúnadain".

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.
As usual :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

I was wondering when someone else would notice that. but wouldn't it be more correct to say "a Dúnadan" or if he's sticking with the plural he could have just added "of the" to get "I am of the Dúnadain".Well, yes, that occured to me too but it was funnier to phrase it that way... after all he claimed he knows Elvish, but he didn't say anything about knowing English... :p ;)

I just don't know what was the point of posting the post count this early though... it strikes me as exactly the kind of useless information cobblers are interested in. On the other hand, it is something a bored ordo could do while trying to say something at least to keep the village awake... :rolleyes:

And lastly, what's it with everybody considering this Day1 so important? Have I missed something? Of course day1s are important in a way as later investigation material but half of the village seems to regard this Day almost as something sacred and throwing around mystical comments that toDay will tell everything about this and that... weird. (Actually, rather funnily, strikes me as the sort of nonsense cobblers could say. Why am I seeing cobblers everywhere? Why don't I see wolves anywhere? That would be more useful...)

In fact, now that I got to it, I think pretty much everybody is seeing cobblers everywhere, not wolves. That is understandable (cobblers have been a big topic and it's much easier to spot cobblerish than wolvish behaviour this early) yet pretty disturbing...

[Brinniel]

Hi Brinn! *waves*
*waves back* :)

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.
My thoughts exactly. And once again comes the temptation to disobey everything he says emerges... :rolleyes:

Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!
...and beware of those who stay so silent that you can't form a picture of them. The Holy Old Debate!
Noooo, don't say it! I wonder if it's actually possible to go a single WW game without that debate arising...

And lastly, what's it with everybody considering this Day1 so important?
Day 1's have their uses, though I'm not sure if they're that important. But I do think it's the easiest Day for wolves and cobbler to hide...

[Mithalwen]

Since I usually say this anyway can I just cut to the chase and say "Lets kill Nogrod"? I have only started skimming through and he is already doing my head in by appearing to use binary number.

[Mithalwen]

And other forms of number for which I have forgotten the names not being a Mathmagician ... and he seems to be talking cobblers *wonders if anyone else understands what will in another time and place be known as Cockney Rhyming Slang*.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Ah, cobblers.

I know a thousand different stories of comet crashes into Jupiters, but they all end differently. Some, like the famous Real Hope and The Quacking Cooking Implement went on to win the game, many others just rolled over and died, and a lot in between these two scenarios. We cannot really gauge how effective the confusion a cobbler sows--doesn't mean we'll discount it, but it shouldn't unduly concern us. An innocent is about as likely to confuse as a cobbler; how, then, can we differentiate that two? Motive? An innocent can wish a fellow innocent lynched, as much as a cobbler can. A cobbler can help someone he/she/it thinks wolvish survive, but what he/she/it thinks, really, is about as correct as any of us can come up with. Maybe more, depends on the person. Question is, who here knows who the cobblers are?

I agree with Eönwë when he said:I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."and this is how I'll play this game. I mean, think about it: Aside from the identity of one other person, a wolf (during the DAY) is just as clueless as a cobbler or an innocent. So catching one is almost as easy (or not) as catching the other.

I usually work with votes, enedwaith, so . . . same diff.

Hm, very tempted to lynch Nogrod. His ramblings remind me too much of the story of an enlightened Elf who refused to write an essay on the Enlightenment.

Eönwë is being Eönwë-ish, as usual. Same for a phantom (he's being a phantom-ish, not Eönwë-ish[/b].)

Mum agrees with me about Nogrod, so yay!

The 'DAY 1 is utter rubbish' people are out in force. Hail, brothers!

End of story. There will be, of course, a sequel.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, and I just thought of this: Gifteds, if anyone comes out and says he/she/it is so-and-so, but you know they're not, because you are, don't counter-declare. He/she/it may help lynch an innocent for one DAY, but at least we get the satisfaction of him/her/it being chewed the following NIGHT.

Of course, the impostor could very well be a wolf, and not a mere cobbler, which means a counter-declaration the following DAY could be a mess. So I guess it'd help if the cobbler assassin targets our impostor, too, that NIGHT.

Oh, Angamandi, just lynch me. :p

[Nerwen]

Alas, O factotum, I do not understand this arcane language. At least, not that part of it.

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

So it would seem:

I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.


Noooo, don't say it! I wonder if it's actually possible to go a single WW game without that debate arising

No, it isn't. So let's get it over with.

Lynch the quiet ones!

No, lynch the loud ones!

The quiet ones!!

The loud ones!!

The quiet ones!!!

The loud ones!!!

The loud ones!!!!

The quiet ones!!!!!

(Continue until somebody is lynched.)


There.:cool:

As for the benefits of trying to lynch cobblers vs trying not to lynch them... I don't see how that helps at this stage of the game. We are trying to lynch wolves... so in the end we just have to go for someone who looks suspicious.

EDIT: X'd with Nilp (twice).

[Thinlómien]

Feanor of the Peredhil - hasn't posted anything yet
Shastanis Althreduin - hasn't really said much, hasn't given any impression
Formendacil - nothing alarming nor reassuring this far
Kitanna - hasn't posted yet
Eönwë - the only thing that occurs to me about him is that he doesn't look like a cobbler...
Nerwen - looks like normal Nerwen ergo I don't know
Kath - hasn't said anything yet
Nilpaurion Felagund - kind of makes sense, but doesn't really say much... purely based on gut-feeling is slightly wolvish but really, he could be anything
Durelin - no idea
Brinniel - has an innocentish manner for now
Gwathagor - has an innocentish manner, but I wouldn't be too sure
Nogrod - smells of cobbler
Lalaith - looks like normal Lalaith ergo could be anything
A Little Green - hasn't said anything yet - but will say something as soon as I've finished this post
the phantom - is advicing others, arguing and taking the lead... in a way that's fishy but he's always like that...
Groin Redbeard - not enough data
Mithalwen - no idea, except that seems rather vengeful...

[Thinlómien]

And I didn't mention this in my last post although I was supposed to... I'm now going, but I will be back before the deadline. (I will miss the last hour of toDay though as they've finally decided to show the second season of Rome on Finnish TV and I don't want to miss it...)

[A Little Green]

Hullo, my dear friends - I see there are many of us gathered in this dark and unholy place, far from Varda's stars (Buy a pocket-size Menelvagor, tax-free, and a teddy bear for the seventeen first purchasers! *wink wink*).

I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better. I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village. Even if he was right and his way of playing this village was profitable, I'd still prefer it so that every player plays in the way s/he sees fit. I don't think it's anyone's duty or right or even possibility to choose how the village is to be played.

Two wolves are easy to find I disagree - I think two wolves are as hard to find as five. Though we have less wolves to catch, we also have a bigger chance of lynching a non-wolf. A very cunning wolf can fool us just as neatly with one or four packmates.

Then there is still this proverb -
Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler. I disagree again. A wolf and a cobbler, though they work for the same goal, have entirely different methods of working because they have very different tools with which they can work. It doesn't go in the way that if a person who looks suspicious isn't a wolf, s/he is then most likely a cobbler. A cobbler doesn't necessarily look suspicious in the same way as a wolf does, because cobblers have less to hide.

I see I just come, disagree, and go. Menelvagors, anyone?

[A Little Green]

Wait - where exactly is everyone? :eek:

And one more note: I don't think the post count reveals much or indeed anything. One can post two posts per day and be much more substantial than someone who posts a horde of one-liners.

[Eönwë]

And one more note: I don't think the post count reveals much or indeed anything. One can post two posts per day and be much more substantial than someone who posts a horde of one-liners.

I was just pointing out that the phantom (almost wrote the pantom there) had, at that point,, 10 more posts than the second higher poster, and that he in fact produced over a third of all posts (discounting mods) onn this thread. His voice is (or at least was then) larger than anyone else's. Statistically, every 3 posts, you would get one of his, so he can definately affect us. That was my point.

And, not to be rude, but this isn't the stock excchange, by the way. People here would like actual valuable things such as Sam's belt buckle which was stolen by wights.:D

And where are you people anyway?

[A Little Green]

Really, this is a bit too quiet.

Oh, and I just thought of this: Gifteds, if anyone comes out and says he/she/it is so-and-so, but you know they're not, because you are, don't counter-declare. He/she/it may help lynch an innocent for one DAY, but at least we get the satisfaction of him/her/it being chewed the following NIGHT.

Of course, the impostor could very well be a wolf, and not a mere cobbler, which means a counter-declaration the following DAY could be a mess. So I guess it'd help if the cobbler assassin targets our impostor, too, that NIGHT. I fear I don't follow the logic. Could you clarify?

I had some point I would have liked to bring up but unfortunately forgot what it was. :rolleyes:


EDIT: x-ed with Ëonwë - Hooray! Someone is here! Hello!! :) (Oh crap, my triple post ceased to be a triple post...)

[A Little Green]

And, not to be rude, but this isn't the stock excchange, by the way. People here would like actual valuable things such as Sam's belt buckle which was stolen by wights.Honestly, man, belt buckles are so last se... umm... age. (Try our newest pocket-size supernova! *salesperson smile*)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, and I just thought of this: Gifteds, if anyone comes out and says he/she/it is so-and-so, but you know they're not, because you are, don't counter-declare. He/she/it may help lynch an innocent for one DAY, but at least we get the satisfaction of him/her/it being chewed the following NIGHT.

Of course, the impostor could very well be a wolf, and not a mere cobbler, which means a counter-declaration the following DAY could be a mess. So I guess it'd help if the cobbler assassin targets our impostor, too, that NIGHT. (Nilp)
I fear I don't follow the logic. Could you clarify? (Green)
Situation: Someone claims to be gifted.

Possibilities: He/she/it is telling the truth.
He/she/it is lying, and is a cobbler.
He/she/it is lying, and is a wolf. (Less possible than Possibility B, due to scarcity of wolves.)
Best Response of Gifted: Nothing.
Do not counterclaim, hope that wolves believe the 'gifted' and he/she/it is consumed that NIGHT.
Counterclaim immediately, and get a wolf's head.
*But how to differentiate between Possibility B and C? Nearly impossible, so play the numbers game (2:1 cobbler:wolf ratio + value of wolvish numbers to Evil Side) and do Response B.

A somewhat random plan of response, and there are many holes to be plugged, but I do hope it achieves its purpose.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Honestly, man, belt buckles are so last se... umm... age. (Try our newest pocket-size supernova! *salesperson smile*) (Greenie)Do you happen to have the rare collector quark star? I heard from the people of Further Harad that the quark star is supposed to turn a cobbler into a banana split. :D

*wink wink at everyone*

[Durelin]

Nilp makes excellent points. The gifteds should not come out if there is a false reveal. As we saw last game, counter-reveals are rarely believed. In this game, though, the cobblers have more reason for and more to gain from a false reveal.

Of course, after talking about it this way, I wonder if a cobbler would risk it. Probably. They don't have much to lose.

I really am finding it hard to even toss out random suspicions atm. I'm always for lynching the phantom, though. I say we give Nogrod a little time.

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

[the phantom]

*Phantom wakes up and is surprised to see that so little has happened*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I make a good cobbler. *pouts* Why pick on my mum, huh?

She's not your mother in this game.

Riiiiiight.

[Durelin]

Because to me you quite obviously make a good cobbler. :p

[the phantom]

Okay, here are my thoughts as of this moment.

Feanor of the Peredhil, Kitanna, Kath- Haven't shown up yet. Is this because they know good and well that Day 1 lynch candidates nearly always emerge from the villagers who've actually been around on Day 1?
Shastanis Althreduin- hasn't said much, but makes sense
Formendacil- one in character post, one post that says I'm a Cobbler or Seer
Eönwë- in character, a bit of support for me, down on Nog

(more people on the way, I'm going down the list....)

[Mithalwen]

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

If you mean shoes probably not, if you mean one of those dishes with a scone topping well yes but not really my culinary style.

But in the context of Werewolf, who knows? Given that I can go a long time between picking werewolves I sometimes feel that I have been an unwitting cobbler in many of the games I have played. So while I suppose that should be a compliment, it would be a mistake to confuse haplessness with malice....

Nilp darling I love you too. *hugs*. But I can't remember playing a game with Durelin in which she hasn't suspected me. So it is quite normal for her to pick on me.

I need to read - got a little delayed and now distracted.

[the phantom]

Nerwen- seems honest thus far
Nilpaurion Felagund- entertaining and sensible
Durelin- a little like Nilp
Brinniel- puts off the innocent vibe
Gwathagor- we disagree, but I do not suspect him at all
Nogrod- he stumps me, nice in character stuff, and obviously spent some time with his points, most of which make perfect sense, but something about him seems off

(five more people to go...)

[Mithalwen]

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

[the phantom]

Lalaith- one post, but feels okay
A Little Green- I can't get a read on her
Thinlómien- her list makes me uncomfortable, don't know why
Groin Redbeard- not much to go on
Mithalwen- doesn't matter what she is, she should never be killed, she's too smart and charming and all that ;)

[Thinlómien]

Funny, I did get Nilp's original point, but when he started elaborating on it, I got confused.

I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village. Even if he was right and his way of playing this village was profitable, I'd still prefer it so that every player plays in the way s/he sees fit. I don't think it's anyone's duty or right or even possibility to choose how the village is to be played.Well, darling, we can always just ignore him. Let him say what he wants, we don't have to obey him. As long as he doesn't insist on anyone following his guidelines, I think we can cope with him. ;)

I disagree - I think two wolves are as hard to find as five. Though we have less wolves to catch, we also have a bigger chance of lynching a non-wolf. A very cunning wolf can fool us just as neatly with one or four packmates.Okay, they might not be easier to find per se, but there being just two of them makes the game easier for us. If there are just two wolves, they can't win by numbers ie it will take a long time until their number equals that of the innocent villagers, so we should have plenty of time to lynch innocents and cobblers before it gets too dangerous...

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?...what? Why Kitanna? Because she's not talking? But Fea and Kath aren't talking either... Have I missed something, or what is it?


edit: xed with tp

[the phantom]

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway?
What, is she not going to be able to play or something? Is there modfire?

[Mithalwen]

Does noone read the admin thread....? IF in doubt read the instructions...

[the phantom]

To summarize my current leanings, I'm somewhat wary of-
Formendacil
Groin
people who haven't posted
people from Finland

I'm currently very trusting of-
Nilp
Gwath
Mith

[Mithalwen]

I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village.

Speaking for myself, I love being manipulated by the Phantom ... nobody does it better... makes me feel sad for the rest.... :p

[the phantom]

Does noone read the admin thread....? IF in doubt read the instructions...
I read all the mod posts on this thread, and didn't see anything about it. The first post of the Admin thread doesn't have anything either. And I also skimmed the last page and didn't see anything from Kitanna about pulling out of the game.

That's as much as I'm willing to do right now. I'm trying to do work at the same time here, so cut me some slack.

[Mithalwen]

Seeing as it is you and you are a sidekick down :
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565110&postcount=92

I don't think I am hallucinating.

[Eönwë]

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

That actually sounds like an ok idea. It'd better than going for the 8/9 possiblity of getting an innocent.
The problem is that Day 1 will lose its value even more, until at least Day 3, when it might be already too late. We can't analyse people, as we don't have anything to go on. And this might make Day 2 almost as unproductive as Day 1 (but we will still have the WW kill and possibly the Cobbler Assassin kill). Because we'll have much less to work with, we might, at worst, lose 4 of our number (that's a third) by the beginning of Day 3 (two wrong lynches and two night kills) and then we'd not have many chances left.
On the other hand, even if worse comes to worst, we'd only lose 4 all in all. If we lynch someone else today, who turns out not to be a wolf, but is an innocent then we could at maximum lose 5, which would be devastating for us.

But is it risk we should take? I'm not sure...

edit: x-ed since Lommy #75

[Thinlómien]

Seeing as it is you and you are a sidekick down :
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565110&postcount=92
Why did I miss that? I'm sad to hear she can't play... :(

Anyway, I don't like the idea of voting her. It's a wasted lynch, I think. Firstly, we can't conclude much from the voting. Secondly, we don't need to use our brains. Thirdly, we have a chance to kill a wolf and we should take it. (I'm not saying Kit is not a wolf - even though I very much doubt she is - but there should be a higher chance to get a wolf if we lynch someone suspicious than if we lynch someone of whom we know nothing. Or that's how the game is supposed to work.)

edit: xed with Eönwë

[Eönwë]

The other, obvious problem, is that today we might, just might, lynch a wolf. But it might be better to be on the safe side... hmmm...


edit: x-ed with Lommy again, but this time only her

[the phantom]

Rats! I've lost my business partner!

Okay Mith, as far as your idea about lynching her... hmm....

On one hand I can't imagine that she's gifted, so lynching her would ensure that we didn't have a complete Day 1 disaster.

On the other hand we will lose a chance to catch a baddie.

Now, earlier I said that the goal of a Cobbler is to die during the day, and we have a greater chance of hitting a Cobbler than a Gifted or WW. But that said, lynching a Cobbler today would not be a victory for them as compared to lynching Kitanna, for the loss of Kitanna is already a guarantee! She's going to die. And therefore lynching a Cobbler when a death is already in the bag would surely be a loss for the evil team.

So all in all I think we might want to try our luck and lynch someone else.

[Eönwë]

Well, darling, we can always just ignore him. Let him say what he wants, we don't have to obey him. As long as he doesn't insist on anyone following his guidelines, I think we can cope with him.

Yes. the phantom is a cobbler even if he doesn't count as one.

[Mithalwen]

I did say if there were no better ideas.. with only 2 wolves there is a chance neither has stuck their furry head above the parapet. However a cobbler or a wolf might think it a waste since they lose the chance to kill an innocent. From the innocents' point of view it is quite good risk management. I think.

It is an option - anything that promotes discussion on a quiet first day has tobe useful surely?

[the phantom]

Ignore me at your own peril, Lommy and Eonwe, for I speak truth, and can be very entertaining. :D

[Mithalwen]

That is one of the few certainties of Werewolf :) So would it be premature to apply for the vacancy? :Merisu:

[Gwathagor]

I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in. Most successful lynches occur later on in the game, as a result of the build up of the information necessary to form a case against a wolf, which is not present at the beginning of the game. One could argue that the village merely has better odds of getting a wolf as the game progresses, but I'm not a complete cynic and I don't believe that a successful lynch is purely the result of luck. If we did believe that, we wouldn't bother arguing. So, why risk losing two innocents on the first night, when we could just lynch Kitanna, who we're going to lose anyway, and keep the maximum amount of villagers possible alive as long as possible, thereby buying ourselves time to sift out the wolves?

[the phantom]

From the innocents' point of view it is quite good risk management.
Okay, let's see here. If we take the lynch in our hands then-
Chance of lynching an Ordo- 53%
Chance of lynching a bad guy- 35%
Chance of complete disaster- 12%

If we lynch Kitanna-
Chance of lynching an Ordo- 0%
Chance of lynching a bad guy- 0%
Chance of complete disaster- 0%

So we reduce the chances of disaster by 12%, and reduce the chances of great victory by 35%. Just looking at those two numbers we should certainly take the lynch.

But what about the possibility of lynching an Ordo? That is the greatest probability. How much do we need to protect our Ordos? What I'm saying is, are Ordos so important that we are willing to pass on a chance to damage the evil side? Hmmm...

Looking at the numbers like this, I can see why the idea is attractive, Mith. It's extremely safe.

[Thinlómien]

It would be silly to vote Kitanna. Werewolf is all about making a difference and we won't make any difference if we vote her. Besides, it would feel just wrong to vote somebody who's going to die anyway.

And speaking of voting, I should vote soon because I still have more than a little homework to do before doing such idle things as watching TV and because I should give Greenie enough time to post, think and vote before she too starts watching TV... ;) Currently I feel like I'll probably vote Noggie who looks very much like a cobbler because no one really looks wolvish to me... but I'll reread and see if I change my mind.

Ignore me at your own peril, Lommy and Eonwe, for I speak truth, and can be very entertaining.I will happily agree with the second statement, but I won't buy the first one... :D

edit: xed with Gwath and tp

[Lalaith]

Here's what I've thought about today:

1. Cobblers are basically cannon-fodder in this game. So brace yourselves, people, for a LOT of false reveals, false wolf-identifications etc.
2. The two wolves may do a number of things. The most obvious is to lie low, hiding in the clouds of chaos they expect the cobblers to kick up.
3. As lots of people have pointed out, Phantom is being autocratic as usual but going over his posts I'm not convinced he means everything he says.
4. Bear in mind Fea has already told us she won't be around until Day 2.

[Mithalwen]

Gwath - there are a dozen or so of us who call ourselves Fenris Wolves because we were lynched first day so it does happen but I don't think we have added to the pack for a while and we do only have 2 wolves - though aided by four fellow travellers. So teh odds are reduced.

[Gwathagor]

It would be silly to vote Kitanna. Werewolf is all about making a difference and we won't make any difference if we vote her. Besides, it would feel just wrong to vote somebody who's going to die anyway.

I agree - but what difference are we likely to make on the first Day? Historically, innocents get lynched on the first Day. We're already losing one (Kitanna); let's keep the casualties as low as we can.

[Thinlómien]

Voting Kitanna is like giving up. "We can't find any wolves or cobblers, so let's just make it safe." Doesn't really attract me. I dislike that kind of attitude.

I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in.I've seen it happen more times than it would be mathematically probably so I do believe in our chances of lynching a wolf. And we can always try to lynch a cobbler too. One less of those on our way...

edit: xed with Lalaith, Mith and Gwath

[Lalaith]

Oh, and I agree with the reservations people have about voting Kitanna. Trails of evidence and all that.

[Lalaith]

innocents get lynched on the first Day. We're already losing one (Kitanna

Is this not a bit fishy? Roles had already been allocated when Kitanna left the game. How do you know she is innocent?

[Mithalwen]

Looking at the numbers like this, I can see why the idea is attractive, Mith. It's extremely safe.

Also TP, the added attraction is that it isn't a total waste of a day. I think we stand a good chance of flushing a cobbler out of covert for the assasin to get a safe kill.

[the phantom]

but going over his posts I'm not convinced he means everything he says.
Indeed. ;)

And another point about lynching Kitanna- has such a thing ever been done?

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, by the way, I think Kitanna will become innocent if she's not that already. Meaning that if she is (was?) a wolf or a gifted, her role would be reassigned to some other player as the game has barely started... so her death will probably count as an ordo death at all accounts. Or that's what I would do if I was a mod.

edit: xed with Mith and tp

[Mithalwen]

Is this not a bit fishy? Roles had already been allocated when Kitanna left the game. How do you know she is innocent?

We won't know until later but l having modded, given that Kitanna hadn't posted, I think it there would be a fair chance that her role (if it were special ) would be reallocated. I have had to do that myself before.

[Gwathagor]

Is this not a bit fishy? Roles had already been allocated when Kitanna left the game. How do you know she is innocent?

I'm assuming, but I don't know for sure. It may be a stupid assumption, but the odds are that she is innocent.

[Thinlómien]

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.I so much hope tp is not the seer, because if he thinks like that, our seer will soon be revealing himself (while it's still Day1) and just one ordo he has dreamt of just because no one has been stupid enough to do that before... :rolleyes:

Anyway, I didn't have the time or the energy to actually reread, so I'm just voting..

++Nogrod

...and going to my much beloved :rolleyes: Swedish books and handing the mouse & keyboard over to Greenie...

edit: xed with Mith and Gwath

[Mithalwen]

Indeed. ;)

And another point about lynching Kitanna- has such a thing ever been done?

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.

I don't think so but I doubt the mods would object. It is the least distorting way of resolving the issue but these are unusual circumstances because of the assasin. Lynching is not the only way this village can weed out the baddies.

[Lalaith]

Lommy, Mith - I get your point about the mods probably reallocating Kitanna's role if she had one. But I am not happy about Gwath being so *sure*. A pity, because I was feeling quite trusting of him before that.

[Mithalwen]

I wouldn' t fret about that Lal becasue no one can be sure of someone's innocence as far as I can make out . THe wolves know each other but they don't know if the others are ordo or cobbler. The seer similarly can only tell wolf or non wolf. The cobblers, as I read it don't know each other's identity. Ordos know nothing for certain. Even the assasin with a failed kill cannot be certain if the target was wolf or ordo.

Which leads us with a lot of suspicion.....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm lost, but here's what I've gathered so far:

Kitanna quit the game, some people want to lynch her to keep innocent casualties down, some don't want to. I can see both sides of the argument, but I'm nearly positive (as some have said) that she will end up an Ordo. So it makes the most sense to me to execute her and lose one Ordo rather than execute someone (anyone, at this stage, has the greatest chance to be an Ordo) and have her modkilled.

++Kitanna

Pardon my haste. I just moved back into college and am getting back into the swing of things, just bear with me.. :rolleyes:

Edit: X'd with Mith.

[Durelin]

All voting Kitanna does is prolong the game by a Day. It just seems rather silly to me.

Both Gwath and Lalaith bother me now. Gwath's done a good bit of back-and-forth-ing already (not sure how to explain...debating more than others in that he doesn't seem to drop things as quickly, maybe), and Lalaith's "fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things.

Lommy feels off, but I don't know why. Maybe it's just that she seems rushed, which she was.

THe wolves know each other but they don't know if the others are ordo or cobbler.

Good point...and the wolves will want to be a good bit more careful about killing off their cobblers in this game, with so many of them and only two wolves.

Edit: Crossed with Shasta.

[Gwathagor]

But I am not happy about Gwath being so *sure*. A pity, because I was feeling quite trusting of him before that.

:confused: Bother. I am not "sure." But the odds are very good that she is innocent. And, if she is a wolf or a cobbler, then we are still losing an innocent toDay because her role has to be reassigned. So let's lynch her and avoid losing a second innocent. We don't have enough information to form a substantial case against anyone else.

I really hate to be a pessimist, but first Days are bad news in my experience.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, well, I guess I should just practice what I preach.

++Kitanna

[Durelin]

We don't have enough information to form a substantial case against anyone else.

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow? Who said something about just sitting around and agreeing with each other was very dangerous in this game? Well I think it's always very dangerous... It's very easy, and that's the whole problem.

[Mithalwen]

Good point...and the wolves will want to be a good bit more careful about killing off their cobblers in this game, with so many of them and only two wolves.

.

And that means that the innocent and gifted may cultivate a low level of suspicion to increase their chances of surviving the night ... hard line to walk.

[Nogrod]

Reporting for duty... (I just got home from the choir rehersals and haven't have time to even peek at the thread since I left.)

*goes back to read*

[Mithalwen]

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow?

A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person. I like your confidence but don't share it. An accountant's soul is mine - must always be prudent and anticipate losses but not profits.

[Gwathagor]

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow?

There's always more information on the second Day, which, I'm arguing, is one reason the likelihood of a successful lynch increases after the first Day.

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here (And quark stars for sale!) - and I think we should definitely not lynch Kitanna. We will have much less to go on with toMorrow if we lynch practically no one toDay. I for one wouldn't much like another Day 1 -style Day. Just compare - if we lynch Kit, all we can analyse toMorrow are toDay's posts (that are not too many) and the Night's kill (that will most probably be very traceless and difficult to draw conclusions from). If we lynch someone else, we have all the voting stuff (possible bandwagons, possible strange last minute votes, people's suspicions and reasons for voting etc.) to analyse toMorrow in addition to the Night's kill. So yes, I think we really should make a proper lynch toDay.

As for who I could lynch - I think Gwathie looks a bit fishy at the moment, as does Shasta who pops in and makes an easy, neat vote that will not irritate anyone. I'm torn about Mith, since she seems innocent in one way (I don't think a wolf or a cobbler would come up with the idea of lynching Kit), but in another she does not (I think she is clever enough to actually bluff it, and I have a bad feeling about her overall).

At the moment, Brinn and Lal seem innocentish. Also, I don't think Nog is a cobbler - true, he has been more cheerful and confusing than usual, but I think it's just that he's a bit too absorbed in his character..


EDIT: x-ed since Gwathy's vote

[Mithalwen]

Well I think there is a good chance at least one our wolves is keeping a low profile today. Given that quiet folk are so often given the benefit of the doubt day one, I am really tempted to go with Kitanna. The assasin can pick off the cobblers, are you folk who are anti so confident you are going to get a wolf and not the seer or assassin? Big risk to my mind.

[A Little Green]

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..) A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person. Yes - a wolf kill (at least I never can draw much conclusions on the first wolf kill) and possibly an assassin kill (that will rid us of one cobbler but provide us with little else). The seer dream will probably not affect toMorrow that much - and it's toMorrow I'm concerned about. True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow.


EDIT: x-ed with Mith

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'll vote

++ Gwathie

because he gives me an overall fishy feeling. (Also, as I don't want us to waste one Day for lynching Kit, I'll vote for the one of my suspects I guess others might vote as well.)

Menelvagors, quark-stars, and pocket supernovas for sale! And the teddy bears.

Good night.

[the phantom]

Kudos, Mith, for bringing up the whole Kitanna thing. The different reactions people are having to it is going to give us some things to think about in the future.

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)

[Gwathagor]

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..)

You're at a loss? On the first Day? How extraordinary. :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

Just checking in. I'll be back when I've read through everything.

[the phantom]

Twelve votes to be cast in 25 minutes. Don't you love voting flurries? :D

I'm currently rereading everything. My mind hasn't changed much thus far.

Where's Kath?

[Durelin]

++Gwath

I don't like his attitude. :p

Woohoo, bandwagon!

[Gwathagor]

++Gwath

I don't like his attitude. :p

Woohoo, bandwagon!

Cobbler.

[Brinniel]

I agree that this lynching Kitanna business is quite silly. Regardless of what her role may be, she already dead. Yes, lynching her would give us an extra Day...but this early in the game I don't think an extra Day is that critical. I mean with two wolves, I think we have the advantage, even if we don't lynch them the first Days. It just doesn't make sense for us to waste our lynch on someone who's probably an ordo when we could be looking for a wolf. And as Lommy mentioned, if everyone just voted for Kitanna, there wouldn't be much for us to analyse toMorrow.

Let's see....Mithalwen is the one who came up with the possibility to lynch Kitanna, but on Day 1's in particular I tend to be more wary of the ones who bandwagon with such an idea....

tp seems to be playing with the idea. But no matter what decision he makes, if he's evil then he's probably a cobbler. Would he play so boldy on Day 1 were he a wolf?

I'm mostly worried about Gwath and Shasta. Gwath is insistent that lynching Kitanna is the best option once the idea's been put out. And then Shasta comes out of nowhere and votes Kitanna.

Hmmm....but then when I think about it again, why would a wolf vote Kitanna and want less casualities? If everyone voted her, it'd be easier for them to hide...but surely it'd be more advantageous (is that a word?) if they got rid of two ordos on Day 1 rather than just one. So perhaps that means a wolf is hiding in the group that's against lynching Kitanna. That doesn't stop me from considering that these bandwaggoners for lynching Kitanna are evil...but now I'm thinking more likely there's a cobbler among them trying to distract us..

[Nogrod]

Okay. Done reading...

Interesting but a bit disappointing as well. I do agree with tp that the reactions to this "lynch Kitanna" option are good things to read afterwards - and possibly even toDay. Let's not just make any common decisions for bandwagons are our worst option. I mean if we lynch someone with a great accord we have wasted the Day as totally as if we lynched Kit in the first place but very possibly lost one innocent more.

So more candidates to the scene now.

I'll bring you two who are this far the only one's that have ringed my bells of warning.

Lommy for her vote and less because of her general behaviour. There is something in her manner that I just don't think fits her as an innocent. But there is her vote I think she would not do - with those grounds - were she an innocent. But as a cobbler she might do just that.

I mean one thing you have kind of ignored talking about what the cobblers will do is that they will try to bring down those players they think are innocent. (Second thing not mentioned as such I think is that they try to steer the discussion into futile things thus derailing the hunt for the wolves) So let's look out for that as well.

Back to Lommy then. I know there is part of my judgement that has to do with her making a quite light vote on me in a situation where a few had already said they could vote for me. So it may also be partly a "natural" reaction to the unjust and ungrounded suspicion on me but at the same time it looks like a good bet for a cobbler indeed.

Another one I have some bad feelings right now is Groin. And if I think Lommy might be a cobbler I could see Groin rather as a wolf.

He has posted once saying this: Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"Now this looks like a plain effort of pleasing a few others. Not the least because Gwath had posted once before Groin's post saying only: Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.And that's what a silent wolf would do. Stay low, give some nice feelings to some others so that they would think nice of you...

But not much to go on I admit.

EDIT: X'd with all after Nerwen

[Mithalwen]

Since I raised the possibility I think I had better follow through - and I don't like this Gwathwaggon.

++ Kitanna

At least it does no harm....

[Lalaith]

Btw - I know a seer doesn't see a cobbler, but if one dies, we will be told his/her identity by the powers on high, won't we?

I'm not going to vote for Kitanna.

I'm just going through the thread again. I can see why people are worried about Nogrod. The Wittgenstein spoof doesn't bother me, actually, but however the quibbling over semantics does. (vis a vis the cobbler question) Nonetheless, I feel inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt just for now - I take Little Green's point.

I know I raised the issue of Gwathagor, but again, I'm inclined given his previous honest-seeming, to watch and wait on him.

I feel most worried about Phantom to be honest. I can't get a sense of a wolf right now but he feels rather Cobblerish.

[the phantom]

You are thinking along the same lines as I am, Brin. I can't possibly see Gwath or Shasta as a WW. Cobbler is a possibility, but I still hold to my gut feeling of trust for Gwath. I have no read on Shasta at all.

As far as Mith suggesting it, I doubt she's a WW. Possible Cobbler, but more than likely an Ordo.

Regarding Gwath pointing at Durelin as a Cobbler, I'm not so sure. I think perhaps Durelin's personality just appears Cobblerish.

On my second reskimming of the thread, Lalaith is making me squirm. I'll read a post of hers and know that she's innocent, and then the next post she makes me think she's up to something.

I wish Formendacil was around more. He still came across fishy looking to me.

[Mithalwen]

I can't get a sense of a wolf right now but he feels rather Cobblerish.


Get your hands off him! Until Fea shows up he is all mine ;)

[Nerwen]

Hmmm....but then when I think about it again, why would a wolf vote Kitanna and want less casualities? If everyone voted her, it'd be easier for them to hide...but surely it'd be more advantageous (is that a word?) if they got rid of two ordos on Day 1 rather than just one. So perhaps that means a wolf is hiding in the group that's against lynching Kitanna. That doesn't stop me from considering that these bandwaggoners for lynching Kitanna are evil...but now I'm thinking more likely there's a cobbler among them trying to distract us..

The cobblers are, presumably, as afraid of lynching wolves by accident as ordos are of lynching gifteds. So yes, I think it's not unlikely there's a cobbler or so in that group.

On the other hand, there is some merit in Mith's idea. I mean, if you had to chose between voting Kit and voting at random...

EDIT: X'd since Brinniel at 127.

[Gwathagor]

Regarding Gwath pointing at Durelin as a Cobbler, I'm not so sure. I think perhaps Durelin's personality just appears Cobblerish.


That may be. I haven't played with her much, so I am not acquainted with her style.

[the phantom]

Hmm... Feeling a bit better about Nogrod now.

Currently, Mith feels to me rather sleek and well toned. ;)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow. (Greenie)I play to win, not to do interesting or enjoyable things. ;)

Although the scarcity of future analysis from one quarter does irk me, we get the higher chance to be rid of two cobblers toNIGHT. So:

++Kitanna

Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long. ;)

[Nogrod]

Brinn is exactly right. Those who would oppose lynching Kitanna the most - if neither of them were on the firing line - would be the wolves... and the cobblers, for it is against their common good. It lessens their numerical advantage - or the advantage they might gain if Kit is just removed "for free" to them...

Another thing is whether they would conseal that stance and talk the other way.

I don't know about Gwath. Somehow I must admit that I don't quite like this sudden interest on lynching him that just materialised from out of nowhere.

I'd say Groin and Lommy are our best bets toDay.

[Mithalwen]

I never said it was ideal but it limits a lot of damage. And if nothing else talking about it has raised some possible cobblers. Be a bummer to lose the Assasin or Seer because safety play is boring. Tomorrow the village will have a better idea if people are unavoidable quiet or keeping a low profile.

[Gwathagor]

Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long. ;)

I agree with two-thirds of your assessment, Nilpaurion.

[Lalaith]

The cobblers are, presumably, as afraid of lynching wolves by accident as ordos are of lynching gifteds. So yes, I think it's not unlikely there's a cobbler or so in that group

Excellent point, Nerwen.

[the phantom]

Current voting-

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)
Durelin for Gwath (2)
Mith for Kitanna (3)
Nilp for Kitanna (4)

[Brinniel]

I think Gwath is most likely a cobbler.

I really do think a wolf is among those who are against voting Kitanna, the problem is I don't know who.

If it has to come down between Kitanna and Gwath, I would rather vote Gwath because I'd rather eliminate someone I think is evil, than someone I'm sure is innocent...even if she will die anyway. Even though we have a cobbler hunter, they could totally disagree with...why save all the cobblers for them? As we all know, there are four of them and I doubt the hunter will successfully kill them all...

Of course, it's probably a better idea to vote for someone else entirely, someone who is more likely a wolf....but who?

[Lalaith]

Mith will probably block me on MSN for this, but

++The Phantom

I've little or no idea who is a wolf but I think he's a likely cobbler.

[Nogrod]

I'm ready to vote for Kitanna if the other choice is Gwath. With that choice I'd pick safe lynch for a possible lost of a player that could be of help later.

But looking for wolves I'd say Groin as he fits so nicely the quiet wolf trying not to attract attention and to look like he has said something & rubbed a few people the right way. And posting once per Day doing only that isn't the most helpful thing in the first place...

[the phantom]

Just thinking out loud here- were I a WW, I would not take Kitanna. Here's a chance to get TWO kills in one day!! Odds are we'll lynch a good guy. It's worth the risk.

Were I a Cobbler- .....I'm having a tough time answering this one. On one hand I'd be fully aware that my allies want to see a double kill. But on the other hand me and my brother Cobblers stand a chance of being lynched, and I would know that all the Cobblers surviving to Day 2 would give the WWs a leg up. It would perhaps be a free pass for me to do damage later in the game.

Bleh... this is difficult. I'd say that overall both would lean towards lynching someone else, but if one of the WWs or Cobblers felt that he himself was under the gun we certainly cannot rule out supporting the lynching of Kitanna.

[Nogrod]

Thanks for rewriting my post #137 tp... :)

[Brinniel]

Looking back at the thread, I'm playing with the possibilities of either Lommy or Greenie being a wolf...based on what they said about the Kitanna issue. Based on votes, Greenie looks more suspicious because it seems Gwath became an easy target at that point.

Would voting for one of them be a wasted vote? Or should I put my vote to use and vote for Gwath who I still think is a cobbler. Except I worry about the scenario that I could be horribly wrong and he's simply an easy Day 1 lynch..

[the phantom]

Current voting-

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)
Durelin for Gwath (2)
Mith for Kitanna (3)
Nilp for Kitanna (4)
Lal for phantom (1)
Thanks for rewriting my post #137 tp
Oh whatever! :p

[Nogrod]

Okay.

If no one does anything I'll start then and let's see.

++ Groin

[Brinniel]

No more time to think:

++Greenie

I know, kind of useless toDay...but I want to look at her toMorrow

[Nogrod]

Last minute guys!

[Nerwen]

Running out of time, not happy with voting Gwath, and it's too late to get anything else going, so–

++ Kitanna.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Two throwaway votes. Interesting . . .

[Mithalwen]

Okay.

If no one does anything I'll start then and let's see.

++ Groin

One minute to go and you think it is time to start? :eek::p

[the phantom]

I was expecting something weird at the end, but it didn't happen.

Oh well. It's over now.

Throwaway vote-

+ + Lalaith

[Macalaure]

Deadline.

Please refrain from posting now.

All votes with a :00 count, later ones don't.

Narration to follow soon.

edit: I guess you would like to be a little more careful about the deadline the following days. Today it only affected two unimportant votes, but I wouldn't like the actual vote outcome be negatively affected by "later than last minute" votes. ;)

[Eönwë]

I think perhaps Durelin's personality just appears Cobblerish.

And yours doesn't?:p


Lately, it seemsto me that Greenie, namely A Little Green seems very suspicious. She suddenly comes in, flood posts, trying to converting everyone to share her mindset. Then she votes for Gwathie, which causes a mini Gwathwaggon. Seems like a band of wolves/cobblers or both mixed together. Or should I go Kitanna?

I'll go:

++A Little Green

edit: x-ed since Nogrod #149. Must have calculated an hour off. Sorry all! Please don't kill me, Oh mighty Big Mac!

[Macalaure]

The adventurers wasted no time mourning the tragic deaths of their two leaders. Instead they took heart, and with determined will they faced the situation they were in and firmly decided to approach it with the only means they were experienced in... pointlessness. Strangely, the cobblers, shady individuals who switched their loyalties and did not know each other's identity, attracted more attention than the evil adversity they were really facing. Even though most decided that they were not worth bothering about, as usual, the twisted were simply more interesting than the downright evil. Only one among them seemed to be occupied with other thoughts...

Evil is in this place! Evil shall mar us all! Evil shall take us all! Woe is me! Evil has entered me and it shall kill me ere the night comes! Kitanna wailed.

The others were perplexed, but, shaking their heads, they continued, pursuing their not exactly straight path to a solution. It was phantom's turn now.

Alright where were we? Ah, yes, I see a boat arrive. I see someone on the boa...

Alas! my innermost self is consumed by the vile poison injected into me! Oh, world! Oh, pain! Why do you not take me, yet?

I do not understand this arcane language. Nerwen admitted, but people with more lore and less wisdom already continued the debate:

I heard from the people of Further Harad that the quark star is supposed to turn a cobbler into a banana split. Nilp explai...

Goodness has forsaken me, darkness is embracing me, and when it has taken me, my body shall wither and wane, and I shall be no more! Ah! painful bite of ruthless malevolence!

Alright, what if we decide to delay our debate now... and just kill her instead? Mithalwen suggested.

Verily! the crowd responded, and in a sudden unison, which just before would have been unthinkable given their diverse points (or lack thereof), the heroes surrounded Kitanna and silenced her quickly, even though death would have taken her anyway. Nobody was surprised to see her shape unchanged after she had died (cuts, stabs, fractures, and bruises aside). She had been innocent.

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One
Kitanna (ordo) - lynched by a pointless mob on Day One

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Gwathagor - warrior librarian
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
Lalaith - absent-minded professor
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Groin Redbeard - dwarven miner
Mithalwen - factotum


Night 2 has begun.

Wolves: chat. Seer: dream. Assassin: assassinate.

[Rikae]

Long after the last adventurer had been overtaken by sleep, the absent-minded professor tossed and turned, haunted by the nagging fear she had lost something important.
Finally, she reached into her bag for a piece of chalk, planning to write her thoughts down on the stone floor, and thus, clear her mind...
Horrors! The chalk was missing. How would she ever think clearly without it?

Lalaith scrambled to her feet, plucked a torch from the wall, and made her way clumsily back along the passageway, searching the floor for her precious writing implement. She rounded the corner and walked on several yards before, putting up her hand to push her hair out of her eyes, she discovered the chalk tucked behind her ear. Turning, she found herself face to face with two massive creatures whose twisted, inhuman shape made her step back in alarm.

Don't hurt me! She gasped. The wolves gave a hoarse laugh, ending in a growl.

Not tonight, old woman. But never fear, your turn will come soon! Melkor has decreed that none of you shall leave this place alive.

The professor retorted:
Do you not know that Melkor's nihilism will in the end destroy you as well?

What? No, no, no. Melkor gives strength!

Only strength to conquer his enemies. And when his enemies are conquered his slaves will be destroyed.

Slaves? That is not true. Morgoth is the Giver of Freedom.

No, Melkor gives no freedom. See, as slaves of Melkor, you have no choice of your own, apart from the choice to follow him, although some might say that this choice alone is enough exercise of free will, and that those who choose good over evil make the same sort of choice... where was I? The choice to follow Melkor... is the choice to forgo further choice. Unless you take back that choice, you have no choice but to do as your master chose. Right now, I assume you are wandering about in order to take out your master's orders and kill one of us. You are not free to deviate from this plan. Of course, whether or not you would want to is another matter, because as creatures of supernatural strength, perhaps you must kill weaker beings in order to exercise your will to power, and thin the herd, ensuring the survival of the fittest - however, you cannot even do this freely, because as slaves of Melkor, you kill only on his orders.

Well, we do have the choice to kill whomever we want.

No, that is not true. Let me prove my claim. If you didn't have to follow your master's plan, you could just change your target at will, couldn't you?

Yes.

Therefore, if you had the choice, you could now simply choose to kill me instead of your scheduled victim.

Yes.

Thus I have proven my claim. You cannot kill me!

The wolves exchanged looks.

Go on, kill me and disprove my logic.

Well, I suppose we can forgo our decision to follow Melkor for just a little while...

The professor looked pleased. The first step had been done.

...and follow your command, just once.

The professor now no longer looked pleased at all, but only for a very brief while. One wolf leaped onto her with incredible speed and one powerful bite of his jaw severed the professor's head from her body.

When the expedition awoke the next day, only a blood-soaked piece of chalk on the floor indicated what had happened during the night.

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One
Kitanna (ordo) - lynched by a pointless mob on Day One
Lalaith (ordo) - severed from her chalk, and her head, in Night Two

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Gwathagor - warrior librarian
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Groin Redbeard - dwarven miner
Mithalwen - factotum

Day Two has begun. Wake up and talk! And vote. Especially those of you who didn't yesterday...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

-what I intended to post last night.

I copied it into a word document so I wouldn't lose all my thoughts.

So, without further ado, here is what was on my mind almost exactly 24 hours ago:

I notice that the phantom has once again become the center of attention.

Has he ever not been in it?

Well, I can agree about slips of tongue being a way to hunt wolves, but we shouldn't count on that because all wolves don't make slips and some people make wolvish slips even if they're innocent.

Agreed. And with people playing who want the wolves to win? Freud would be having a field day, but I wouldn't base any life-threatening judgments on his opinions anyway.

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

Peach, perhaps? Oh, that would make my day... If only I had the proper pan for such things, I'd make the best cobbler you ever came across. Oops, sorry Papa Freud; you were listening? Don't mind me, I'm just amusing myself... no, I don't wish that! How could you accuse me of such things?!

Feanor of the Peredhil, Kitanna, Kath- Haven't shown up yet. Is this because they know good and well that Day 1 lynch candidates nearly always emerge from the villagers who've actually been around on Day 1?

Aww, Phanty, casting aspersions on my character when everybody involved knew perfectly well I wouldn't be around for a few days? However, later on in my post, when I actually start mentioning anything of substance - rather than just reflecting on what I've missed thus far - I'll get to you...

3. As lots of people have pointed out, Phantom is being autocratic as usual but going over his posts I'm not convinced he means everything he says.

I think your phrasing on this statement nails it: you didn't say you don't think he's telling the truth, you said you don't think he means everything he says. HUGE difference.

Because, you see, the phantom doesn't lie. He bends the truth, yes. Stretches it so thin it starts to resemble taffy, sure. But he doesn't lie. He tells pieces of truth that get him what he wants. Which makes him dangerous, because you won't be able to nail him on any falsehoods, and he doesn't outright state things he doesn't actually believe, though he will say things with a politely phrased excuse to preclude his wrongness. Analyzing his posts for manipulation? You could have killed him after his first post of the game. He's a pro at bending people to his will. But that doesn't guarantee he's evil. It just guarantees that he's charismatic.

Anyway, here's my point on the phantom:

Being a creature of habit, I firmly believe he's guilty as sin and should be lynched asap before he can cause more damage.

BUT:

I also know that because he manipulates via truth-telling, even if he's guilty, we should keep him around because he's still going to come up with excellent theories, he's still going to point out key information, and he's still going to have informative and amusing posts. He's educational, even when he's trying to kill you.

Besides: we can always kill him later.

[the phantom]

So, the one single post you were going to make yesterday was dedicated to me?

How sweet of you.

You should've shown up. We could've argued. And then tempers would've flared and you'd get yourself lynched. And when it was discovered that you weren't a WW I would've been lynched the following day to avenge your death.

See what you miss out on when you don't show up!

Just fyi, I will be gone for about seven hours or so, but I'll be around quite a bit the rest of the day. And I'll talk a lot. :)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So, the one single post you were going to make yesterday was dedicated to me?

I would have made more posts but that was the only one I'd actually composed by that time since I was busy abandoning you to frolic with another man for a few days, and since my initial return plan was to post my first thoughts upon reading and go from there.

It's phantomocentric because of your penchant for taking over all discussions and directing attention to yourself. Since you're stealing the spotlight, wolves can float under the clichéd radar simply by letting you do it. They don't have to expend effort casting suspicion on somebody else when you're busy garnering everybody's attention. Such a boon to them, giving them invisibility like that by being such a flagrant narcissist.

And I'll talk a lot. :)

Is that supposed to surprise anybody?

("I've missed you, darling... you've no idea...")

[Eönwë]

So, Lalaith has been killed. Laughter doesn't seem to be killed though, judging by tp and Fea's post today.

Ok, so let's look at the:
Trails of evidence and all that.

Well, she immediately attacks Gwathagor and (at least as I interpret it) accuses him of wolvery. Then she calms down on that case and says that she'll "watch and wait on him".

Next she agrees with Nerwen that cobblers as afraid of lynching wolves as ordos are of lynching gifteds.
Then she immediately votes the phantom, as she says he is cobblerish.

So, was it one of those two (or both) that were wolves, or were they framed?

*dun dun du-u-u-u-un*

*Find out next week on Ye Eönwë Showe.

[Eönwë]

Or was it just completely random?
Or did Lal just seem innocent enough to kill without worrying about her being a cobbler?
Anyway, in this game, we have possibly 5 cobblers. If tp isn't actually officially one, he definately is in playing style.

edit: x-ed with no-one. What a quiet Day this is so far (but it is only 1.5 hours in)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Laughter doesn't seem to be killed though, judging by tp and Fea's post today.

Joker always told me that [s]laughter is the best medicine...

Anyway, I can't help but feel like first-night wolf kills don't reflect a whole lot. Every time I've ever been a wolf, the idea has kind of gone along the lines of, "Well, this person could be the Seer, or not, but either way it's one less enemy off our backs and either way it's not like we've had enough time to leave evidence to convict us."

Of course that's not to say that we should just ignore who said what about her, and what she was saying; it's just pointing out that there's not nearly as much profound meaning to attach to early wolf kills as there is later in the game when they start to get real worried about which player is hording secret information like a highschool kid with a bottle of Jameson.

edit: x-ed with Eönwë

[Nogrod]

So Lalaith it had to be then... that's too bad as she made sense. But also an excellent choice from the wolves. I mean there are certain patterns in wolf-kills even if people may consciously try to avoid them or try to mislead others by acting differently every once in a while. So some people just go for getting the strong or loud players out for maximum effectivity, the others go for sportiness and kill the quiet, some go for the "no-tracks left behind" and others for maximum confusion, and all go out for the seer. And many of us know what to think or where to look, if we see certain kind of pattern emerging from the kills.

Now Lalaith seems to be a pick about anyone of those stereotypes could have made and which could point at any direction.

Now let's look at the next scenario which might be the one which the wolves would like us to come up with:

Lalaith voted for the phantom and just insisted on him without too many arguments. So tp is a wolf and they thought Lalaith is the seer... The phantom voted for Lalaith (though overtime) to make himself look better toDay - just a thing tp would be able to think already in the end of Day1.

Fine and dandy. But at least for now I think it's not the case. It's just a bit too neat. The seer had a dream on Night1 and from all the other 17 she picked the lupine phantom and went for him with a "hunch" and speaking more of "cobblerism" to hide her seerdom. But the wolves thought they had caught her and thence tp voted her to be better off toDay and then they killed her.

Somehow I don't buy that. At least yet.

So maybe it was because Lalaith didn't have any specific suspicions and only voted with her hunch so the kill leaves no track? And it could have been done by anyone...

... and it might point at tp, almost frame him... so who's the most annoyed with him? :)



What other leads do we have toDay?

There were five votes for Kitanna and it would be an interesting thing indeed if there were no cobblers or wolves in there. Not perhaps in the early voters as it is clear lynching Kit was against their own good (loosing a free "one-villager-down") but maybe later, when it was looking quite clear Kit would be lynched anyhow so they would have tried to take advantage of the obvious outcome (Nerwen, maybe already Nilp?).

Those trying to sway the Kit-lynch early on, eg. those trying to make the lynch more profitable to the wolves, should be ones to be looked at more closely as well toDay. That means basically Lommy, Greenie and Dury.

And even if I think about everyone not voting / posting on Day1 came forwards in the discussion thread explaining their situations I still think it was outrageously too many who went through the Day1 with giving us no or very little clue about themselves. This is no personal disclaimer or anything like that. I'm one of those who always declares that we should really trust what others say and that the game depends on trust in each other's words and deeds outside the game (and distrust for about anything said inside the game). So we just had tough luck this time with 1/3 of the village either not posting or not voting. That's a bit too much even if we can't do anything about it - and it gives the baddies the advantage.

So let's speak toDay, all of us...

EDIT: X'd from Eönwe's first post onwards...

[Eönwë]

Come on- Talk ye invisible people!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm bored with being the only person around.

I believe in the early-game significance of analyzing first day posts exactly as much as I believe in the easter bunny. Give it a few days and maybe it'll be worth something. Probably not.

You don't get ANYWHERE until people start analyzing the first real wolf kill, because there's nothing for anybody to hide until then. There's no crime. There are no criminals until after the first day is over. First day posts, therefore, hold no evidence of crime.

So I'm going to go read a book. There's no point in me sitting here alone whilst folk across the pond are settling in for bed and everybody else is still busy with their days.

Call me when there's something worth discussing. Like how people react to Wolf Kill One.

Because until we have that? We have nothing worth going except the same old rehashed arguments about hypothetical hunting techniques and friendly banter.

On that note, I think I ought to be in character for a second or two:

I have a dream. A dream where one day... the world becomes kaleidoscopic, like a lemming. Yes... that is my dream. Make of it what you will. It is profound though. Never doubt its profundity.

edit: x'ed with Eönwë, who is as impatient as I.

[Durelin]

There were five votes for Kitanna and it would be an interesting thing indeed if there were no cobblers or wolves in there. Not perhaps in the early voters as it is clear lynching Kit was against their own good (loosing a free "one-villager-down") but maybe later, when it was looking quite clear Kit would be lynched anyhow so they would have tried to take advantage of the obvious outcome (Nerwen, maybe already Nilp?).

But, as Nerwen pointed out, it's in the cobblers' interest to avoid getting one of their wolves lynched (and their fellow cobblers, though that's secondary in importance). And as a wolf, I might well have considered *going with the flow* on that one, myself, even though it goes against my WW 'philosophy' (lolz, I know). There has never been a cleaner appearing lynch and never could be. I'm really going to have to try to not focus on the people who neatly went along with the Kitanna lynch.

I found myself disagreeing with Nogrod on several things already, which makes me feel we are on different sides...in this case meaning he is of an evil sort.

As for the Lalaith kill, she was set on phantom and interested in Gwath. I doubt she was killed as a potential seer because she suspected a wolf, but her suspicion of phantom and her jump on Gwath were both more purposeful than most of the typical musing going on. Anyway, as Eonwe pointed out, she may have just seemed un-cobblerish to the wolves. And as Fea pointed out, she may have been a *maybe the seer* pick without anything behind it.

Nogrod feels bad to me. With all he said yesterDay and toDay about how it's only in the wolves best interest to try and get someone lynched other than Kitanna, yesterDay he developed his own quiet but consistent 'argument' for the lynching of Groin that basically boiled down to "he's quiet and isn't useful", being consistently Nogrod-ish but for show only. And yes, he voted for Groin. I had to go back and look, I couldn't remember at all who he voted for.

As for distinguishing between wolf and cobbler, I just can't begin to do that in my head.

I'll think more, just not right now...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't like phantom. I most vehemently do not like phantom. I agree totally with what Fea said; by pulling all attention, all the time, to himself, he's letting the wolves slide by quite nicely. Not to mention that no one ever wants to lynch Phantom because he's (and at least three people have already said this!) "entertaining". It would not surprise me at all to learn that phantom is banking on that very fact.

(Now, do I mention that I have to vote extremely early due to a full schedule tomorrow? Or do I just let my vote hang out there in silence to see what that stirs up?)

++Phantom

*dons his sealskin and swims away*

[Formendacil]

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three. I'm interested to hear just why it's a bad thing that we have one more person alive than we would have had.

Edit: "would have had", not "would have".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

And may I add that you are calling yourself an idiot? I don't know that I speak for everyone else, but I certainly speak for myself when I say I don't like and will not stand for being disparaged by the likes of someone who has apparently never read the parable about glass houses.

Edit: "are", not "were". My grammar gets a bit rusty when I'm annoyed.

[Formendacil]

And may I add that you are calling yourself an idiot? I don't know that I speak for everyone else, but I certainly speak for myself when I say I don't like and will not stand for being disparaged by the likes of someone who has apparently never read the parable about glass houses.

Edit: "are", not "were". My grammar gets a bit rusty when I'm annoyed.

Oh yes, I'm delightfully aware of the irony... or, rather, the perception of irony.

See, I didn't deliberately not vote yesterDay. Rather, I got my times wrong, had a cake at work, got home late, and was much, much too late....

But, since I can see into the depths of my soul, I know I would not have voted Kitanna. Voting for someone already on death row is like liking Days 1--I just don't do that.

So I can throw all the rocks I want, in this particular situation: my house ain't glass. (In this case it's a really ugly stucco, so while those who live in stuccoed houses shouldn't go on about shag-carpeted houses.... but that's a convoluted analogy.)

Furthermore, there's a gaping hole in your logic there, Shasta. You aver that had we actually killed someone yesterday instead of rubberstamping the mod's necessary actions, we would have three innocents death.

Rubbish!

Your reasoning assumes that the person killed yesterday would actually have been an innocent. Not necessarily so. Although not quite as statistically possible, one should not think that--on Day 1 of all days!--we would certainly not have hit a cobbler. (Although lupine Fenrii abound, I do not suggest we'd have caught one, since that would go against the grain of my Day 1 tendencies... though I guess it IS logically possible.)

Furthermore, the actions of both the wolves and the Cobbler-Hunter could have been much different last Night if there had been an actual attempt to kill someone. We could, in theory, have three cobblers dead right now, alongside Kitanna.

[the phantom]

Personally, I can't believe that Groin wasn't killed during the night. Did you see what he posted on the Admin thread yesterday?
However, I think that I'll be able to make it tomorrow and I have some argumentative points that I want to make about a potential wolf! :)
He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously. A few people did give me Cobbler vibes though, so I would guess that the WWs tried to kill someone they were sure wasn't a Cobbler, and hope they got one of the two gifteds. Of course this means that the gifteds would do well to look slightly Cobblerish. I'm fairly certain they're doing it already though, for I'm seeing a Cobbler in more than four places at this point. Which is why I don't want to point fingers at Cobblers at this time.

[Formendacil]

Okay, because I have to get to bed, and because I really don't know for sure if I'll be back before the deadline (like to, but no promises)...

++the phantom

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea

Me

and
the phantom.

And, of the three, the phantom's the only one I can bear to kill.:p

[the phantom]

Such powerful reasoning. You must care deeply about what happens to this village, Formendacil. :rolleyes:
Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea
Me
the phantom
So you're actually admitting to it? :eek:

At this point in the game with all four Cobblers still alive it does indeed make sense to start gathering suspicion to yourself and playing off your usual style and a bit sloppy, but you're taking things a bit too far, Form. Are you really desperate to get out of this village? Feeling pressed for time in RL, so you want to do your bit and get lynched and get out?

I'm wondering if I even want to give you that satisfaction. I say we leave you for the Cobbler Hunter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

a phantom and Groin are wolves.

Hehe. Perhaps. We can safely conclude that a phantom is not a cobbler. I don't think any of us here, were he/she cobbler assassin, could bear not to make him the first target. Anyone disagrees?

Formendacil is a cobbler.

I like the way he makes us feel sorry about killing Kitanna with his what-might-have-beens. Neville might not have surrendered the Czechs, and we might not have den Schoa. But he did, so we had. And we're here now. Instead of venting his spleen he could have done something more useful by actually throwing it (i.e., his spleen) at someone he actually suspects.

*parry, riposte* :p

Will make a post on Lalaith's death later.

[the phantom]

Firstly, I agree completely with your Cobbler points, Nilp. I can't imagine that I wasn't checked by the Assassin last night, and I also am convinced of Formendacil's Cobblerism.

Naturally I disagree with you naming me as a WW. But Groin- I suppose he's a possibility. But I would really have to see more from Groin before I'm willing to go after him.

[the phantom]

And by the way Nilp, if Form is a Cobbler why did he vote for me if I'm a WW?

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

My statements are not AND ones, more like OR ones. </boolean> I'll be surprised if more than one of them turns out right.

[the phantom]

Ah, I see. Thanks for explaining.

[Nerwen]

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Actually, tp, I was wondering myself yesterDay whether Lalaith might be the Seer (hiding behind accusations of cobbler-ism), so I don't think it's THAT far-fetched.

Now, I think there is a point to what Form is saying: if we hadn't spent the last part of yesterDay arguing over the benefits of Mith's scheme, we might have come with a proper lynching candidate.

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?

EDIT: x'd since tp at #180.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, except the 1st one (which is why I grouped you and Groin in the same statement.) Your 'explanation' of Groin's admin thread post can be construed as some sort of barrier-building . . .

Eh?

Don't say 'eh?' There's nothing cute about an older guy saying 'eh?' (http://www.onemanga.com/Bleach/218/04/)

Shush.

[Thinlómien]

I can't possibly understand how yesterday's voting became such a disaster. Really, guys, you messed it all up, (obviously because I wasn't there to make sense. ;)) I still think lynching Kitanna was a stupid idea. Now what kind of playing is that, killing someone who is already dead? Hardly helps us in wolf or cobbler hunting. With the same logic, we can all abstain from voting on Day1 next game if we have no strong suspicions. Really, that was pretty pathetic, as were all the throwaway votes (including mine, it seems *sigh*) and all the no-voting. I can almost concretely hear the laugh of the wolves and the cobblers. (And who was it that said cobblers can't cause confusion? I blame them - at least partly - for that horrible mess yesterDay.) Okay, rant over. But late yesterDay really made everybody look pretty cobblerish to me :rolleyes: because you were (almost?) all acting so sillily. Whatever, I guess we can't change the past, but if someone is going to drop out again, I swear I'm going to make sure we don't act as stupidly as we did yesterDay. :p

Now that I've got that off my heart, I can concentrate on other issues, like why Lalaith was killed or responding earlier points... Post coming soonish, hopefully.

[the phantom]

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

There are a couple of other people that I'm almost certain aren't Ordos, but I'm not sure what they are, and in case they're good I don't want to point them out.

I wish there were more people around right now. But since there's not I'm going to go ahead and go to bed and wake up ready to chat away.

[Nerwen]

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

I doubt it too. He could be a wolf trying to double-bluff us into not lynching him... but in that case he'd be exposed toMorrow (since he's begging the assassin to go after him toNight).

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

This is rushed because I have to go now. I shall be back in about five hours.

[Thinlómien]

Q: Why was Lalaith killed?
A: No idea.

:rolleyes:

No reason stands out to me as for why she's dead. If we had a ranger, I would be tempted to say she was killed just to avoid the ranger. I mean, her death was pretty unexpected, at least to me. Maybe it was meant just to baffle us? And of course, the wolves might have been scared of her quick wits and killed her. Or then, Gwath or tp might have been worried about her going after them in future and eliminated a dangerous foe. And no one really suspected her. But is any of these reason enough to kill her? I don't know, I just have a feeling that it's a bit far-fetched. The obvious seer-explanation could be it, but I don't think her posts point to any seerish knowledge on anybody. So was it, like someone said, just general seerishness in the eyes of the wolves, or - like someone else said - simply the fact that she didn't look too cobblerish? I could kind of agree with that last part, for at least in my opinion she was one of the few people who didn't look cobblerish yesterDay.

There are no criminals until after the first day is over. First day posts, therefore, hold no evidence of crime.I think we've debated about this before, but I must say I disagree. The wolves know they're bad and sinful etc, so that might make them act guiltily. Also, they might do lots of things normal innocents are not so enthusiastic about - like trying to make friends, getting gifted-looking people lynched or give advice to each other, just to give a few examples. Oh, and they also have their packmateness to hide from the others. So I think there is plenty of evidence even without a wolf kill.

Going back to the Kitanna lynch, I have come to a rather unhelpful conclusion. The wolves might have gone along the Kitanna lynch to go with the flow and please others. The wolves might have protested against it to get an extra death. The wolves might have only interfered later and made a throwaway vote to avoid attention the following day. The wolves might have had timetable or other problems and not voted at all. So, we can't really conclude anything like "there must be a wolf among those who protested against lynching Kit" but rather, we have to examine individual behaviour and manner. Which means yesterDay's lynch gives us as much to go as any Day1 lynches, or actually less, because so many were absent and the debate was mostly dominated by one issue.

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three. I'm interested to hear just why it's a bad thing that we have one more person alive than we would have had.We lost two innocents yesterDay? No, we didn't, unless you include the Night kill... :confused: Like Form, I really wonder how can you know we would have lynched an innocent. We would have had a 33,33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 % chance to lynch a baddie (and you silly people didn't take it. Argh. Oh, I guess I promised no to rant about it. :D)

Actually, tp, I was wondering myself yesterDay whether Lalaith might be the Seer (hiding behind accusations of cobbler-ism), so I don't think it's THAT far-fetched.I'm not sure if it would be wise of the seer to do so. She needs to leave the villagers a message of a found wolf, and in a game with four cobblers messing around it would be quite silly to mask suspicion towards the wolf as a suspicion of cobblerism.


edit: xed with tp and Nerwie

[the phantom]

Ah, my bed feels extra comfy tonight. But one more post before I set the computer on the floor and shut the eyes.
But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?
I think you may have latched onto something with that second point. Reading things over I'm thinking that's indeed what may be going on. But I don't want to elaborate on my reasoning too much right now. There's still something that I need to get my head around before I can be sure on which angle to come from.

There is a ploy going on here from someone but there are three possibilities for why it's being done and if I guess wrong out loud I might screw things up for everyone.

I'm also debating what to do about Form. On one hand I'm convinced he's evil and needs to die, but on the other hand can we afford to use a lynch on a Cobbler when we already have an Assassin who can kill him tonight? Or since there are three more perhaps we should go ahead and take him out now?

Let's see here... we could try to find another baddie (likely a Cobbler since there's more of them than WWs) and leave Form for the Night, or we could take him now and allow the Assassin to try out someone new. The advantage of the second scenario over the first is of course that if the Assassin picks wrong nothing bad happens, where as if we pick wrong with the lynch an innocent dies.

Anyone want to calculate some odds or lay out some numbers and whatnot? I'm too tired. It's almost 3 here. Going to bed now.

*zzzzzz*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

31 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565067&postcount=31) - some mathematical issue with Nogrod, her thoughts of DAY 1, tells a phantom not to leave all cobbler-hunting to the assassin, and urges post analysis for possible cobblerish behaviour. A rather helpful post for an IC one.
93 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565169&postcount=93) - thoughts on possible cobbler behaviour, possible wolvish behaviour, a phantom, and a reminder of Fea's schedule.
97 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565173&postcount=97) - agrees reservations about the voting for Kitanna idea of Mith.
98 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565174&postcount=98) - some issue with Gwathagor re his declaring Kitanna innocent.
106 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565183&postcount=106) - continuation of 98. Still suspicious of Gwath.
130 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565208&postcount=130) - question about the rules, gives Nog the benefit of the doubt, will watch and wait on Gwath, is most worried about a phantom, thinking him rather cobblerish.
140 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565218&postcount=140) - says that Nerwen's thought on a cobbler possibly being in the Kit-voters was an 'excellent point'.
143 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565221&postcount=143) - votes for the phantom.

She said things of substance, helpful stuff, telling the wolves that she was most likely not a cobbler. (And they were right.)

But seerlike? Hmm . . . her suspicion of Gwath and the interesting comment of trusting him beforehand does look like a seer's attempt to disguise a dream. Hmm . . .

Enedwaith, some posts about Lalaith:

Durelin's 109 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=565187&postcount=109)
Both Gwath and Lalaith bother me now. Gwath's done a good bit of back-and-forth-ing already (not sure how to explain...debating more than others in that he doesn't seem to drop things as quickly, maybe), and Lalaith's "fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things.[/b]
a phantom's
On my second reskimming of the thread, Lalaith is making me squirm. I'll read a post of hers and know that she's innocent, and then the next post she makes me think she's up to something.

[Thinlómien]

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed. Actually, the only kind of person who'd really profit from impersonating a cobbler is someone who is rather heavily suspected from wolvery. He could try to save his skin by making people think he's just a cobbler. And as there have been no heavy suspicions this far, I don't think there are cobbler impersonators around. Or then either they are or I am stupid... Although, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of someone like tp impersonating a cobbler just for fun... :rolleyes:

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?He could. But I have no idea who'd that be... I mean, no one has been suspected much toDay. And if we assume that Form is a cobbler, he could be thinking that tp is a wolf and launching an intentionally silly-looking attack on tp just to make suspecting tp look ridiculous... but that would be a bit risky, I guess. Or he could be thinking that tp is a fellow cobbler and hoping to put up a proper duel with him. (Even though, he said he won't necessarily be back, so that wouldn't make sense.)

Lastly, I'd really prefer to talk about someone else than the all-attention-grasping phantom of whom I have no proper picture yet (except that he's bossing people around and being self-centered and all that jazz), but I think it's definitely worth paying attention to that he's already received two votes toDay, and neither of them because he'd look wolvish. I smell cobblery here...

[Brinniel]

He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.
If you really thought he was the seer, why would you point such a thing out? After all, Groin is still alive and if you're right you just pointed it out to the wolves. Though I don't think Groin is the seer....his statement sounded more like an ordinary innocent who's eager to share his thoughts.

Now no more of discussing seers and such! I just wanted to point out tp's comment which sounds a bit cobblerish...


We can safely conclude that a phantom is not a cobbler. I don't think any of us here, were he/she cobbler assassin, could bear not to make him the first target. Anyone disagrees?
I could disagree. There were plenty of people looking cobblerish yesterDay and the assassin could've targeted any one of them. But I do agree that the way tp is drawing attention, an assassin would probably hunt him early on. Perhaps if tp is still alive after the first few Nights, then we can safely conclude he's not a cobbler..

Looking back at the Kitanna debate, here's a summary of what I saw about people's opinions:

For the lynching of Kitanna
Mithalwen
Gwathagor
Shasta
Nilpaurion

Against the lynching of Kitanna
Lommy
Lalaith
Durelin
Greenie
Brinniel

Could've gone either way
Nogrod
Nerwen
phantom
Eonwe

And here was yesterDay's actual voting:

Lommy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
Shasta: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 1)
Gwathagor: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2)
Greenie: ++Gwath (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2, Gwath 1)
Durelin: ++Gwath (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2, Gwath 2)
Mithalwen: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 3, Gwath 2)
Nilpaurion: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2)
Lalaith: ++the phantom (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1)
Nogrod: ++Groin (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1)
Brinn: ++Greenie (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1)
*Nerwen: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1)
*the phantom: ++Lalaith (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1, Lalaith 1)
*Eonwe: ++Greenie (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 2, Lalaith 1)

Did not vote: Fea, Formendacil, Kitanna, Kath, Groin

*Votes technically didn't count

Quite honestly, I just don't see why a wolf would want to lynch Kitanna rather than have a chance of the death of two innocents in one Day. I think it was Nogrod who mentioned the possibility of a wolf voting Kitanna as a throwaway vote later on, and I agree that could be possible. But for the ones who voted her early on, I'd say it's more likely there's a cobbler or two among them who aimed to distract us and didn't want to risk the chance of lynching a wolf.

Of those who were against lynching Kitanna, I strongly feel that there's a wolf among them. Because of course the wolves would rather have two innocent kills than one.

As for those who gave no such opinion of the matter and those who didn't even vote, they could be anything.

[Brinniel]

Some basic thoughts about players:

Fea: So far I have no clue. She hasn't really posted enough yet for me to get a good read on her.
Shasta: Pops out of nowhere, votes, then leaves...twice now. Mostly sound like it's due to RL interference, but I still find it a bit unsettling.
Formendacil: Was that last post of his a confession or just a weird joke? And if it was a joke, why would he base his vote on that? I think that last post was too bold to be a wolf, but there is something fishy about him....maybe he is a cobbler.
Eonwe: I'm really not sure. But based on yesterDay, he looks like maybe an indecisive ordo.
Nerwen: Is one of those who doesn't give a strong opinion about the Kitanna debate, but then votes for her as an obvious throwaway. Something about her seems a tad wolfish, but again I'm not completely sure.
Kath: Still hasn't shown up.
Nilpaurion: An interesting fellow. YesterDay he came out of nowhere an voted Kitanna bringing her into a much clearer lead...looks like the work of a cobbler to me.
Durelin: From past experiences, I know she can be very dangerous. She was one of those that were against the lynch of Kitanna...she voted for Gwath immediately after Greenie did at a time when Gwath was starting to be heavily talked about. Perhaps a wolf trying to create a second easy lynch target?
Gwathagor: YesterDay, I said I doubted he was a wolf, but probably a cobbler. I feel the same toDay, except perhaps I'm a bit less certain about how cobblerish he really is.
Nogrod: I keep finding me agreeing with him or him agreeing with me...but what does that mean? I don't see anything suspicious about him at this point, but I still don't really know at this point.
Greenie: I have the same feelings about her as I do with Durelin and for the same reasons.
the phantom: Always the center of attention, of course. It's really difficult to say what he could be. He's acting rather cobblerish, so maybe he is one. Or perhaps he's just an annoying ordo. Of course, I would disregard the idea of him being a wolf. While his behaviour seems too bold to be wolfish, I think only tp could act in such a way and pull it off.
Lommy: She was one of the biggest advocates of not lynching Kitanna. And while I said I think a wolf would be among those who had such an opinion, I don't think she's it. I mean, would a wolf be so bold and insistent as she? It just doesn't seem a wolf would be so obvious...
Groin: While I really hate to use outside reasons, his post in the admin thread does make him sound a bit like an ordo. But then again, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. And perhaps I'm just using that to get an opinion because Groin hasn't exactly said all that much...only one post.
Mithalwen: She's the one who originally came up with the idea to lynch Kitanna...there's absolutely no reason why a wolf would do this...and I kinda doubt a cobbler would either. Probably innocent.

So in conclusion....

Possible Wolves:
Nerwen
Durelin
Greenie

Possible Cobblers:
Formendacil
Nilpaurion
Gwathagor

No Idea:
Fea
Shasta
Eonwe
Kath
Nogrod
the phantom
Lommy
Groin

Probably Innocent:
Mithalwen

Yeah, my "No Idea" category is much too long...as always.... :rolleyes:

It's awfully quiet right now...this probably the last you'll hear from me for the time being, unless a bunch of people post soon. But I'll be back a couple hours or so before deadline.

[Mithalwen]

I only have a little time now and will be back later but I don't have much truck with these attacks on lynching Kitanna. If Gwath turns out to be a wolf I will eat humble pie but I bet they wouldn't think it such a daft idea if we had lynched the seer or the hunter last night. Given that some people were absent or very quiet yesterday it is quite possible that at leasat one wolf has been lying low.

As for these Phantom votes I think he would have rather more subtlety as awolf than to kill the person who voted for him.

I shall need a lot more than that to vote for him because.. I like having him around;)

[Mithalwen]

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed.
...

There is a point, ordos don't want to be lynched but they also don't want to be killed at night. As I said yesterday it is going to be a fine line between looking too innocent and being picked off by the wolves and looking too suspicious and being lynched. Therefore looking slightly cobblerish is a good tactic. Especially since they have nothing to fear from the assassin at night.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three.

Pessimist. Did you forget about the SIX bad guys we might have lynched, rather than Kitanna? We were already losing two innocents, yes. But we were by no means guaranteed to make it three; we were betting on the odds to lose two innocents (one that we had no say in) but still manage to salvage the situation by knocking off an enemy.

With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

I can't imagine that I wasn't checked by the Assassin last night, and I also am convinced of Formendacil's Cobblerism.

Which is why I'm inclined to believe you, and support whole-heartedly your narcissism. Hold out and listen to me: I approve of the phantom's approach of diverting all attention to himself because it guarantees that if he's bad, the seer will know it early and we'll be able to kill him, and if he's good, he'll have somebody on his side.

Either way, his actions guarantee him a credible witness rather than just "he feels innocent-ish."

Seers search for the likes of dramatists. They're too dangerous to remain unknowns. I agree with his conviction that he was checked by the Assassin. It's what I'd have done in that place. If he was a cobbler, I feel very strongly that he'd be dead right now.

If I'm wrong? Well, it happens. Either way, I still hold onto my belief that a living phantom who is posting truths and evidence is more helpful in the short term than a dead one.

I think we've debated about this before, but I must say I disagree. The wolves know they're bad and sinful etc, so that might make them act guiltily. Also, they might do lots of things normal innocents are not so enthusiastic about - like trying to make friends, getting gifted-looking people lynched or give advice to each other, just to give a few examples. Oh, and they also have their packmateness to hide from the others. So I think there is plenty of evidence even without a wolf kill.

In which case we really do disagree. I've thought about killing people. That does not make me a murderer. No court on earth has a leg to stand on if they wanted to try to nail me on guilt of being a murderous criminal. Until there is a crime, there is not a criminal. Until there is an ACTION, not a thought, to hide or defend, there is absolutely nothing to prosecute. You can't hold trial for somebody who's 'just thinking about it.'

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.

Everybody is feeling each other out day one. Everyone is looking for possible alliances. Nobody is any more or less suspicious than anybody else.

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

I completely agree. I think I'm going to have to vote early. A friend to pick up at the airport, and I'm not sure I'll be back in time for close of day...

And right now? Shasta's looking to get my lynch-vote.

Gotta go to work...

[Kath]

Well, now I've got my brain in gear, hello! Just posting to let you know I am actually around toDay because I need to disappear and post for an RPG quickly and then I'll be back with you. :)

[A Little Green]

I'm here at last - though I probably won't be able to contribute as much as I did yesterDay. Firstly, some thoughts about toDay's posts.

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone. Could you elaborate? Why exactly do you presume that Form knows you are innocent?

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through. It is true that on Day 1 no crime has yet been committed, and also I agree that Day 1 might be useless in a way. BUT there is one thing I think you do not take into account. It is that even on Day one, the wolves differ from the others in a crucial way. They know who is innocent and who is wolf. All cases they make are fake.

I'm uncomfortable about tp and Mith (what she did yesterDay would be indeed really bold for a baddie but I think she could pull it off, and now everyone seems to trust her..). And I am definitely going to have a look on those who slept under the reindeer in yesterDay's voting on both sides, meaning both Kitanna-voters and the so-called throwaway-voters.

Back with thoughts, hopefully.


EDIT: x-ed with Kath - hello! *waves*

[Gwathagor]

Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent



Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

And what to make of this: I have a dream. A dream where one day... the world becomes kaleidoscopic, like a lemming. Yes... that is my dream. Make of it what you will. It is profound though. Never doubt its profundity. (From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

And what to make of this: (From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

Don't mind me. If you'll recall, my chosen occupation was something along the lines of a visionary whose visions tend toward the abstract.

Since I missed my day one chance to exploit my chosen role in a post of utter uselessness, I decided to commemorate everybody else's attempts at hiding their cluelessness behind pointless jabber by including a brief and nonsensical clip in my otherwise slightly more serious post.

[Durelin]

Which is why I'm inclined to believe you, and support whole-heartedly your narcissism. Hold out and listen to me: I approve of the phantom's approach of diverting all attention to himself because it guarantees that if he's bad, the seer will know it early and we'll be able to kill him, and if he's good, he'll have somebody on his side.

I think it's very silly to assume that the cobbler assassin or the seer have done or are going to choose a specific person, I don't care who.

That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

The entire village didn't vote for Kitanna. Greenie and I voted for Gwath, Brinniel and Eonwe voted for Greenie, Lommy voted for Nogrod, Nogrod for Groin, and phantom for Lalaith. The scattered voting at the very end is of concern, but everyone's too busy still arguing about yesterDay and is distracted by Form and of course ever distracted by phantom.

I agree with Brinniel on Nerwen. I agree with Greenie on Mith - her moves yeterDay have practically made her an assumed innocent. She feels innocent to me in her manner, but that is definitely something to pay attention to.

I'm still looking at Nogrod.

Quite honestly, I just don't see why a wolf would want to lynch Kitanna rather than have a chance of the death of two innocents in one Day.

To gain the village's trust. To do something people wouldn't expect a wolf to do. Their goal is more to survive than just to mindlessly slaughter as quickly as possible! To leave a clean vote. To continue a debate that will distract the village...

[Nerwen]

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

Hang on. Is this because you believe the Ghost Who Walks to be innocent, or...?

EDIT: X'd with Durelin.

[Thinlómien]

In which case we really do disagree. I've thought about killing people. That does not make me a murderer. No court on earth has a leg to stand on if they wanted to try to nail me on guilt of being a murderous criminal. Until there is a crime, there is not a criminal. Until there is an ACTION, not a thought, to hide or defend, there is absolutely nothing to prosecute. You can't hold trial for somebody who's 'just thinking about it.'

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.No, no, no. That's a bad comparison. Werewolves don't just think about or plan killing somebody. They know they are going to do it. They have to do it in order to win. There's a big difference. So, naturally, they are feeling guilty already on Day1 because they know they're going to kill sombody and thus, their guilt can show, and analysing people's Day1 behaviour is not nonsense.

I think I'll reread yesterDay when I have the time and energy to do that. meanwhile, I could provide you with a nice little list about my thoughts on everybody...


Feel innocentish

Eönwë - shines with the light of ordoness, if one may say so. If he's a baddie, he's really sneaky.

Greenie - overall, her tone seems sincere and she has done nothing to make me suspicious of her. My picture of her is rather vague though, I hope she posts a little more in the future. (But I guess she's going to be rather busy today... too bad.)

Mith - her tone is sincere as well and she seems quite relaxed. She doesn't seem unhappy or stressed like many evil Miths do. I think suggesting lynching Kitanna would have been quite bold of a wolf. (Not of a cobbler though. But she doesn't feel cobblerish at all to me. She's not particularily silly nor does she look like she's scheming something dangerous. And she doesn't look like she's trying to get lynched.)

Nilp - nothing in his manner seems too suspicious, he seems rather okay. He is reasonable and doesn't make sense (yes, you probably read it correctly) the way innocents do. I know he has fooled me before, though. I think he might be one of those people who just don't give wolvish vibes even if they are furry. I might need to keep an eye on him but I don't feel like I had a reason to be extra watchful... (Yeah, I know I'm flip-flopping, but I cannot express myself any more clearly...)

Could be either

Brinn - yesterDay, she seemed really innocent to me. Today, not so much. Somehow I have the feeling she's on the wrong track in her general ideas, maybe because I disagree with her about the Kitanna lynch, for example. I wonder if she's "wrong" intentionally... (:p) I hoped I had grown out of suspecting people who disagree with me, but evidently I haven't. There's nothing particularly suspicious in her manner though, so it's pretty difficult to reach a conclusion.

Fea - I always have hard time reading her. I think her phantom-centeredness might point at her being either an ordo or a cobbler. Furthermore, she hasn't done anything suspicious, but if I had to guess who's a wolf, I would possibly name her. I know, it's silly, I'm not really suspicious of her, but I have a kind of intuition she might be a wolf. She's someone I'm definitely going to watch.

Groin - there's really too little data. Come on guy, come here and post! It's not that difficult or scary!

Gwath - I have really mixed feelings about him. In general, he feels quite innocent, but there's something all too sneaky in his manner. I think he could be a wolf who's tiptoeing around. But it's very difficult to say.

Kath - well what can I possibly say? I'm glad she's finally here, though.

Nerwen - as always, she is difficult to read - the same Nerwen as ever. I have the uncomfortable feeling that she's a wolf slipping under my radar, but that is probably because I've got slightly paranoid about her after one certain game... I mean, there is nothing particularly suspicious in her and she makes sense. Maybe I should just watch her more closely.

phantom - he's all over the place, bossing people around and being rather self-centered. It's all normal for him and doesn't have anything to do with his role. He does throw cobblerish comments around, but on the other hand, he could be just trying to avoid getting killed by the wolves or having fun or whatever. He doesn't give me any wolvish vibes, but I don't get it when people keep saying that he's too bold to be a wolf. I don't think he has done anything particularily bold.

Slightly suspicious

Durelin - I agree with her on many points and she does make sense. However, she's having too much fun not to look like a cobbler. :p

Form - he doesn't even try to look like he's contributing. He also all too happily votes tp right after Shasta. So need I even say aloud that he looks rather cobbleristic? The only thing I really like in him is the way he criticises yesterday's lynch. *smug smile*

Nogrod - like I've said, his early posting yesterDay looked pretty cobbleristic. When people complained about it, he cooled down. A clever cobbler who does not want to lose the game too early? He could be that. Also, some of his arguments seem evilly irrational to me. I don't think he's a wolf though, but I would be less than surprised to find out that he's a cobbler.

Shasta - that guy has been slipping under the radar, and then he goes and makes this rather irrational early vote while he's still able to hang around. He is either a very annoyed innocent, a wolf looking for an excuse to make a safe vote or even a cobbler wishing to add a little to the confusion. I think the two first mentioned options are more probable, though.


Guys, I have a suggestion. Let's stop looking for wolves and start looking for cobblers. I would be far less confused. ;) Seriously, all my even a little serious suspects are suspects of cobblery, and we should preferably lynch wolves. The only ones I even slightly suspect of wolfisness are Shasta, Fea, Nerwen and Gwath, but I don't really suspect any of them enough to be happy with voting them. Maybe I could vote Shasta, but that's it, of them. I'd be tempted to vote one of those I think are cobblers but that would be kind of stupid... argh. I'm glad I still have a lot of time to think about these things and (hopefully) read new posts by everybody.


edit: xed with Gwath, Fea, Dury and Nerwie - yay, action!

[Gwathagor]

Guys, I have a suggestion. Let's stop looking for wolves

Why? Are we getting close to finding one? :)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++SHASTA

Because I don't know how to get to the airport, I don't know if her flight will be late, and I don't know how many errands she intends to run before we return. So I don't know when I'll be back.

If I'm back by end of day, I'll read through and post again. I like Day Twos. They're highly educational.

[Gwathagor]

I'm pretty busy toDay, but I'll be back before DL. Promise.

I want Groin to show up. He had mentioned some points regarding a potential wolf and I am interested to know what they are.

[Durelin]

Both Form and Gwath seem like they're trying to make enemies.

[Eönwë]

Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

You fail to mention somehing: Lalaith was very suspicious of you. Maybe you didn't want her to "watch and wait" for you to do something to her, and killed her in the night, eh? *nudges*

Maybe I was wrong about Greenie. But maybe she's just purposely attacking a fellow wolf. I'll just have to (as Lalaith said) watch and wait.

edit: apaling speling

[Kath]

I know that many of you hate it when I do this but as I saw nothing of yesterDay I need to get my thoughts in order which means, yes, a list. Though it's really a 'find the odd things' list so will appear completely biased.

Nog - rather pointless so far, and what's with that 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 list in which everything useful in it could be said in one paragraph making it much easier to read?! Don't know whether he was trying to be warning or inflammatory with that narration quote about the cobblers, the fact that it specifically said it was too dark for them to see each other seemed obvious. My suspicion would be that right now they can't see each other ... but perhaps if they're left alive long enough they will eventually be told who the others are, thus making them a 'better' enemy.

phantom - I am intrigued by the niceness of his first post. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them. Does that really sound like the phantom we all know?

Durelin - a little bit of stating the obvious.

Eonwe -

Gwath -

Form -

Lalaith -

Groin - says to beware of those who are very loud, after mentioning at the beginning of his post that he is quiet.

Nerwen -

Shasta -

Brinn -

Lommy - 'two wolves are easy to find' is an interesting thing to say, I would have thought the fewer wolves there are the harder they are to find.

Mith -

Nilp -

Greenie -

One thing I will say outside all this. Don't underestimate a Cobbler. Alright, so my experience with them is very different to most as I owe my win in one game to a very impressive Cobbler attack, but that just proves the point. The wolves are the main target it's agreed, but the Cobblers may not be as unthreatening as some people seem to think.

Gah, I have to go out, this is as far as I've got which is why it looks quite so unfinished. I'm at post 60 of Day 1 at the moment, I'll finish it off when I get back. :)

[Groin Redbeard]

Circumstances beyond my control have come up, I expect this will be my last post.


I want Groin to show up. He had mentioned some points regarding a potential wolf and I am interested to know what they are.
Not to be entirely unhelpful, I'll give my points now.

I very much disliked Nogrod's conversation during the first day, taking more words than needed to say what needed to be said (and what he said was common sense). He played in well to the pointless part of his occupation, I don't know if that was planned or by accident but it is a good disguise for a wolf.

I made my suspicions known in my first post I made my suspicions known about loud wolves. Then he started to attack me with how I was feeling "wolfish" to him, he even voted against me with only that one post to go on. It is my opinion that a wolf will be compelled to speak, sometimes loudly, to stay out of the suspicions of others. It is the quiet who get lynched and the great who get killed in the night (yes you may quote me on that :rolleyes:)!

Decide for yourself if you think this makes sense.

EDIT: X'ed with Eonwe and Kath.

[Eönwë]

phantom - I am intrigued by the niceness of his first post. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them. Does that really sound like the phantom we all know?

Yes. Self centered and arrogant (no offence meant, btw). But anyway, I digress here.

Hello Kath!

*goes into action mode*

OK, where was I?

I like Day Twos. They're highly educational.

Yes, you get to find out what people think about Day 1. The only problem is that, with no proper lynch, this is more like Day 1.5™ than Day 2.

Edit: Before there was so much x-posting, and now, nothing.

[Nogrod]

Back again... just a quick answer for starters and then some discussion...

I mean it looks like I owe you an explanation as it was only Lalaith who seems to have gotten the joke. So my first post was made in a style of a philosophy student who has grasped a lot of theories but is going in circles and dead ends only to contradict himself with theory piled on another (the pointless philosopher). The second post and the few addenda to it were indeed made in style of Ludwig Wittgenstein's famous Tractatus Logico Philosphicus - the numbering of points into main cases and their derivatives etc... in logical order.

It was fun indeed. Sadly, it seems, a lot underappreciated... :rolleyes: I thought I tried to add some actual points in there as well - the little that could be said in the beginning of Day1...

I made my suspicions known in my first post I made my suspicions known about loud wolves. Then he started to attack me with how I was feeling "wolfish" to him, he even voted against me with only that one post to go on.Sorry Groin but I didn't "attack you" because you said the loud ones are wolves - I wasn't even a loud one myself on Day1 - and I hope I won't be one toDay either (I'm trying my best not to). And surely, why would I take the burden of all us (normally) loud-ones to myself? I'm not that egotistic.

The point I voted you - and suspected you on the contrary to what you think - was actually that you only made one post which was all too agreeable. It looked like trying to gain some friends, to say something overtly general that would not upset anyone too much and then you just vanished. What a perfect way for a wolf to slip under everyone's radar on Day1 and get through it!

(Or as the new phrasing goes: "sleep under everyone's reindeer"! :D)

Today I saw your explanation in the discussion thread and think differently of you. And your points even make me more confident you're not a wolf - as misled or wrong they are. And I can't stop wondering why tp decided to suspect you after your post on the discussion thread... As someone said it looked to me as well more like an innocent wishing to share a point and nothing more.

Okay. That's it for me on the subject. I'll turn to the matter of hunting the wolves and/or cobblers next.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I would like to pull a phantom and get all your attention, but the only attention I know how to get involves plus-pluses. Which means I'll get your attention only for the DAY, before disappearing into obscurity--and the ground.

Yes, you get to find out what people think about Day 1. The only problem is that, with no proper lynch, this is more like Day 1.5 than Day 2. (Eönwë)We did get a proper voting. Why so sad?

And I can't stop wondering why tp decided to suspect you after your post on the discussion thread... As someone said it looked to me as well more like an innocent wishing to share a point and nothing more.Actually he thought Groin was the seer, and not suspicious--it was I who suspected them. :p

Enedwaith, I have to be going, won't be back the next DAY, so . . . hope to do some analysis during my field work in Bataan.

We can all hope.

Yes. Enedwaith, here's my list yesterday: Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long. ;)I have observed them, and it's

++Gwathagor

that looks most entrail/ice-cream covered to me.

[Nogrod]

Okay. the phantom first then... :)

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously. Now if tp is a wolf that would be exactly what he would say! Or at least one of the reasonable options for him.

Look at the first underlining. So he downplays the theory about Lalaith giving seer-hints in the disguise of points on cobblerism with the reason that the seer can't see cobblers. If the conspiracy-theory holds then that was exactly the reason tp and his mate wished to do away with her. Lalaith's go on tp was definitive - and tp is quick to think he has been the one dreamt of by the seer on Night1 as you all know, I think. :)

The second underlined sentence just gives the case some added credibility even if as such it's of no good. But downplaying the idea that there was any seerish looking posting on Day1 eases the pressure on this particular case of Lalaith - phantom as well. But in the last instance it's only the wolves who can say whether someone's posting looked seerish in a way of being like that in it's tenor and also hitting the target eg. being possible "seer-posting".

So despite all his eloquence, charm and entertainment value I will be looking at the phantom more closely toDay.

Fea next... (after a pause with a cigarette and some thinking & reading...)


EDIT: X'd with Nilp

[Nogrod]

Actually he thought Groin was the seer, and not suspicious--it was I who suspected them.Yes, you suspected Groin first toDay but the phantom agreed with the possibility of your idea in post #179 - which was kind of an un-phantomish thing...


EDIT: Explanation as to why it is an unphantomish thing to do: he went to it somehow too quickly or easily. Like he was happy that someone brought forwards one more possibility for him to use his imagination and to back up his forthcoming vote. No, it's not that he needs help but maybe he just let his feeling show through the post that "yay, one more case I could make!".

[the phantom]

With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.
Perhaps the first time it's been done, but certainly not the first time it's been tried. We all remember WW 4, don't we? *snicker*
I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.
Could you elaborate? Why exactly do you presume that Form knows you are innocent?
Didn't you see- I changed my mind on that. That was only my initial reaction, but after reading what Nerwen had to say I became convinced of her theory.

And I see I'm not the only person who has noticed something. There are at least three others. I'd bet more but they are wisely keeping mum. One for sure was taken in, and another is being taken in but not in the correct manner. I must think how to proceed....

Fea- I'll address this to you seeing as I'm rather confident you've caught it and you give me the best chance at finding the same wavelength without being too specific. I just need to bounce something off of you.

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring? Or do you think that it is simply worth the risk to protect someone who should not die and flush out someone who should. Argh... it's hard to say this without actually saying it. Do you understand where I'm coming from at all?

[the phantom]

Lalaith's go on tp was definitive
Wrong. If she had shown up as our dead Seer then the comments she made regarding her vote on me would've clearly been interpreted as "This is just a vote, don't follow this." You did see what she posted right after her vote didn't you?-
I've little or no idea who is a wolf
That's quite clear.

If she were the Seer she would've had two options- lay low or don't.

If she's the Seer and knows I'm a WW already and chooses the lay low option for survival sake, then there's no need to say anything about me at all, let alone vote for me. But if she chooses not to lay low then she would obviously say something to back up her vote rather than posting words that serve to water down her vote, as if she's afraid her vote will be trusted.

Do you understand this point?

[the phantom]

I have to rush off to meet some out-of-towners for lunch, but I'll be back during the final hour for sure.

[Nerwen]

Groin is dropping out– see the admin thread.

I know! Let's lynch him!:D

[Nogrod]

-what I intended to post last night.

I copied it into a word document so I wouldn't lose all my thoughts.
And what was it... a few jokes and some rant / general defending of the phantom... So not much into the effect that she would "lose all her thoughts"... That kind of makes me wonder why she posted it? Sure I don't doubt it was written during Day1 but just why to post it as everything in it was kind of yesterday's news if news at all... and why to try and give the posting the credibility with a phrase "so I wouldn't lose all my thoughts"? Looks like an agenda-stuff... Fishy.

Also in #165 she carefully downplays any information to be gotten from early wolf-kills. Now if she and tp were the wolves and they killed Lalaith for fear of her being the seer that would be a neat way to address the situation.

And their permanent courting would be just the way they would perform as an evil-duo. Just incredible enough but somewhat natural to them.

Her insistence about there not being a crime and thence no guilt on Day1 just enhances the feeling: do not look to what happened on Day1 - but maybe later. If the theory of Fea and tp being the wolves is true that would be a wise way to try and discourage the speculation on Lalaith's death which does point to tp.

(Yes, I'm still aware that all I say is something the wolves wished me to think by setting tp up by killing Lalaith but I think this must be thought through before giving a verdict on it.)

Someone alrready noticed her "I have a dream... dream... dream" stuff. That would make her a cobbler rather than a fellow wolf. In that light she would believe tp is a wolf. Now would she be wrong? Would her "phantocentricism" be part of the scheme to let him know she's on his side? And surely it's possible Fea is a cobbler and tp is an ordo, Fea just believes tp is a wolf...

In #196 after a few initial complains about Day1 votes she says: With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.As well as inaccurate and wrong it also smells of lycanthrophy or at least cobblerism. There is something in that tone - like in the tone of Formendacil's complaints - that just sounds like they are coming from a mouth who knows more or tries to make her/himself look better than s/he is. I can't explain it. But read it and feel it. I mean an innocent wouldn't have that feel in their posts... I could have written that were I a wolf.

Her last stances on tp are that the more he gets the attention the more probable it is he will be dreamt of / cobbler-assasinated. That is kind of true. But if they are a pair in evil wouldn't that be just what she would have to say before someone else says it? And she already now stresses that he survived the Night - like the cobbler-assassin had no others to contemplate! And tp has I think stressed the cobbler-assasinator as well - more than a seer to looik for him...

A wolf would like to create an air that the cobbler assassin should check his "innocence" and not the seer. And if the wolf is someone as high profile as tp he should be as enigmatic and space-taking as he could as the seer might anyway dream of him sooner than later.

Looking at that I'd say the two might be in cahoots indeed - and playing fantastically! Well I wouldn't await for less from them... ;)

But yes, these are just thoughts made from the perspective of the Devil's advocate. I need to think other things too. And I may be soon going out to the "Night of Arts" (running after Lommy and Greenie).

We'll all be back later though.

And we'll fight for the PC-time then all three of us... :p

[Durelin]

However, she's having too much fun not to look like a cobbler.

Well if having fun is such a crime... :p

And aw, Nerwen beat me to it...

[Kath]

I'll italicise any part of the post I put up before just so it's clear.

Nog - rather pointless so far, and what's with that 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 list in which everything useful in it could be said in one paragraph making it much easier to read?! Don't know whether he was trying to be warning or inflammatory with that narration quote about the cobblers, the fact that it specifically said it was too dark for them to see each other seemed obvious. My suspicion would be that right now they can't see each other ... but perhaps if they're left alive long enough they will eventually be told who the others are, thus making them a 'better' enemy.

phantom - I am intrigued by the niceness of his first post. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them. Does that really sound like the phantom we all know?

Durelin - a little bit of stating the obvious. Talks herself in circles about possible Gifted/Cobbler reveals which again strikes me as a little bit of being obvious.

Eonwe -

Gwath -

Form -

Lalaith -

Groin - says to beware of those who are very loud, after mentioning at the beginning of his post that he is quiet.

Nerwen -

Shasta -

Brinn -

Lommy - 'two wolves are easy to find' is an interesting thing to say, I would have thought the fewer wolves there are the harder they are to find. Something odd in the way she's gone after Nogrod all Day, but that's pure gut feeling. Also potentially deliberately misunderstood something phantom said to ... I don't know, try to discredit him?

Mith -

Nilp - does seem to just grab onto what everyone else is thinking.

Greenie -

One thing I will say outside all this. Don't underestimate a Cobbler. Alright, so my experience with them is very different to most as I owe my win in one game to a very impressive Cobbler attack, but that just proves the point. The wolves are the main target it's agreed, but the Cobblers may not be as unthreatening as some people seem to think.

Hmm well, didn't add much else as it turns out. That was all from Day 1 btw. So, results are:

Suspicious:
Nog
phantom
Durelin
Groin
Lommy
Nilp

Not suspicious:
Eonwe
Gwath
Form
Lalaith
Nerwen
Shasta
Brinn
Mith
Greenie

Will now go on and look at toDay and then I'll have to vote because I won't be here at the deadline.

[Groin Redbeard]

I know! Let's lynch him!:D

I heard that! ;) Good luck everyone, with the exception of the Were Wolves! :p

[Mithalwen]

Did you see that ? He is wishing the Cobblers luck... LYNCH him....

[Nerwen]

And aw, Nerwen beat me to it...

So sorry...:Merisu:

[Nogrod]

If she were the Seer she would've had two options- lay low or don't.Yes. But if she had some knowledge she would face the dilemma of whether to tell it and just hope for the best or to go forwards. So by her vote she might show her knowledge (no clear reason behind it) and with the excuse "I've little or no idea who is a wolf" she tries to make you confident she doesn't exactly know anything... and that would be exactly the behaviour the wolves would have their antennas tuned towards. And that is the point here: why was she killed?

The seers may take many different tactics depending on their confidence of not being killed the next Night, their general risk-taking ways etc. But if she was right with you tp I'd say you would be competent enough to spot it even if it was done with reservations and suspecting you of cobblerism...

Okay, I'm off now as well for a moment.

[Kath]

Oh, well I was going to do Day 2 but due to a misunderstanding I have no dinner and so must go and get myself some and then I'm leaving for some socialising. Therefore I have to vote now:

++LOMMY

I have little reasoning for any of those I found suspicious yesterday but I have been keeping up with the thread toDay. She was really quite overly cross I think at an early point and while she hasn't dropped her suspicion of Nogrod it hasn't been mentioned except in one post unlike yesterDay when she was quite vocal about it. I admit it was a close run thing between her and Nog but then I always, always find Nog suspicious so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

[Nerwen]

And now to make myself (pseudo) useful:

The votes so far:

Shasta –> the phantom.
Form –> the phantom.(2)
Fea –> Shasta.
Nilp –> Gwathagor
Kath –> Lommy

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I found more time than I thought I had. Curious, that.

Why is Fea so adamant about keeping phantom alive? Two possibilities strike:

1. She's the seer and dreamt of him.
2. They're wolves together.

Yes, I am a bit annoyed, Lommy. We all saw last game how dangerous it can be to narrow our focus on one person, and phantom is just replaying his strategy from last game, seemingly.

And considering that I'm not the only one to have made an odd early vote (see Form), Fea voting me on that basis alone seems odd.

Edit: X'd with Nerwen.

[Durelin]

I don't like Kath's attitude, either.

I do feel a bit sorry for Nogrod, because no one seems to have understood his Day 1 role-playing at all. I don't suspect him for that...that was quite amusing. It's quite easy to use someone's role to get a person lynched, so I'm definitely wary of all the people harping on Nogrod's being cobblerish because of his role.

I still feel there's something wrong with him, though (though I also now find myself agreeing with him some, on some of the points he's made about phantom and Fea)...

My baddie list:

Nogrod
Kath
phantom
Fea
Gwath
Nerwen

I feel good about Shasta, Eonwe, Lommy, and Greenie. I feel pretty good about Nilp and Mith. Not sure about Brinn. Did I miss anyone? (Other than Groin.)

I have this feeling like it's either Nogrod or phantom (which is very foolish, but there it is), and right now I think it's Nogrod. His arguments against phantom, though good, seem fabricated. They do not seem like pure Nogrod suspicion. He seems to be taking the easy route too much for him.

Hah, look at me acting like I know people. Hah!

[Mithalwen]

I found more time than I thought I had. Curious, that.

Why is Fea so adamant about keeping phantom alive? Two possibilities strike:



Then there the third - which is the one I work on. The Phantom (like Anguirel and a few others) is just so much fun that you want him around as long as possible even if you think they are as guilty as sin. Those who have a problem with this well, try to be more entertaining ;). Not that I think he is particularly iffy. Far more odd to my mind is Lommy saying I am not being silly when she was earlier sounding off about how stupid lynchin Kit was.... which for good or ill was my idea.... :(

[Gwathagor]

It is the quiet who get lynched and the great who get killed in the night (yes you may quote me on that :rolleyes:)!


This is debatable, but I won't pursue the issue.

[Durelin]

I must vote, because I'm going out to lunch-dinner.

++Nogrod because he feels the worst. My brain tells me nasty things about others, but the most *feeling* is involved with him.

[the phantom]

Nog- if you are innocent then listen carefully.

Lalaith would not look like the Seer to a Phantom-Wolf.

If she had died and been found to be the Seer, it would've been a stretch for anyone to take her posts and apply them to me as a WW. Her vote for me has an extremely pronounced air of "don't take this to mean he's a WW". Read her posts again please. If she would have died and been the Seer that is the way most logical people would have interpreted her words.

But you claim she said what she did to avoid detection? That makes no logical sense. If her aim was truly to buy herself another dream then she never would have voted for a discovered WW in the first place. Her goal would have been either to leave a clue or not leave a clue. If she was indeed the Seer discovering a Phantom-Wolf, then she failed miserably at both.

I've been in villages with her before. She's much smarter than that, and I know it. And I think you do too. You really seem to be grasping at straws, and I can't figure why.

I have a guess of course, but I'd rather not mention it.

[the phantom]

Okay, so I guess that everyone is just wanting to leave Form-Cobbler to the Assassin tonight since there have been no votes for him?

[Mithalwen]

Phantom darling, want to keep you around so will do what I have to do.. :Merisu:

[the phantom]

You are really a dear, Mith. ;)

I should write a Downer Article just for you. I already made another headline for you, but I think you deserve more.

And I still think that the Kitanna idea was brilliant. Not necessarily doing it (I could've gone either way on that), but just even bringing it up. If it weren't for the fact that so much has happened today I think we'd be focusing quite a bit on reactions to that. Only the greats can do something useful on Day 1. :cool:

[Nogrod]

I just came back from town (too much packing crowds there...) and thought to start actually thinking about the culprits before the girls come when I found this.
I have a guess of course, but I'd rather not mention it.Now sorry if I don't follow this. Or is this something like one of your famous "traps" you're known you like to set? Well it backfired I suppose if it was one for I'm no cobbler or wolf who would like to share secret alliances. I'm after the baddies. And I'm no gifted either you should not dare to mention aloud if you're an innocent.

Okay, so I guess that everyone is just wanting to leave Form-Cobbler to the Assassin tonight since there have been no votes for him? That might be a good idea as he doesn't seem wolvish but mainly cobblerish. And that would narrow down our choices toDay. Well, if the cobbler-assassin is wishing or willing to do that. I mean s/he might have other thoughts - maybe looking at you tp or me, or anyone.

But to be frank, yes, I'd suggest s/he takes Form the next Night.

[Nogrod]

Girls came in. Their turn. Sorry.

[Mithalwen]

You are really a dear, Mith. ;)

I should write a Downer Article just for you. I already made another headline for you, but I think you deserve more.



Why Mr Phantom, how charming... :cool: If you do I shall read it ....

Yes.. but left to my own devices I would still suspect Lommy for her double think .. otherwise...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The Phantom (like Anguirel and a few others) is just so much fun that you want him around as long as possible even if you think they are as guilty as sin.

Can't agree with this, Mith. I don't think that one's ability to entertain should preclude their being voted if suspicious.

...Though I seem to be in the minority on this issue.

Edit: X'd with Nogrod's second and Mith.

[the phantom]

Now sorry if I don't follow this. Or is this something like one of your famous "traps" you're known you like to set? Well it backfired I suppose if it was one for I'm no cobbler or wolf who would like to share secret alliances. I'm after the baddies. And I'm no gifted either you should not dare to mention aloud if you're an innocent.
It's not really a trap. Well, it kind of is, but not one of my invention. It's something that someone else did that I think might possibly be a brilliant ploy and I'm trying not to say anything to make it misfire, because I honestly believe it might work. But we won't know till tomorrow if it worked completely.

And no, I will not clarify. I will either tomorrow or after the game. And of course if I'm reading this whole thing wrong then I'll feel entirely stupid.

Okay, so you do indeed think we should leave Form for the Assassin? Well, then the question is who do we lynch today that gives us a good chance of catching a baddie?

And I take it you understand my point about Lalaith now?

[the phantom]

Well, since there's not much interest in lynching Form, I might be content to follow Fea and go for Shasta.

I just wish Fea was around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, since there's not much interest in lynching Form, I might be content to follow Fea and go for Shasta.

I just wish Fea was around.

Surprise surprise.

[Mithalwen]

Can't agree with this, Mith. I don't think that one's ability to entertain should preclude their being voted if suspicious.

...Though I seem to be in the minority on this issue.

Edit: X'd with Nogrod's second and Mith.

You misunderstand .. I am not anti voting for them _ I just save them for later when I have had the full measure of enjoyment. Anguirel would tell you of a certain game where, though it broke my heart ... I lynched him to win the game.... :). However I dont' find him suspicious enoug to vote for by a long chalk. I'd much rather lynch one of the people who have called me stupid....

[the phantom]

Surprise surprise.
Oh, go and plant some sunflowers or something.

[Eönwë]

Well, the thing is, since I stated my thoughts on Lal's post, the more I look at Gwath's posting the more I see wolf. And he's done nothing to alleviate my suspicion, so:

++Gwathagor

edit: x-ed since Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You misunderstand .. I am not anti voting for them _ I just save them for later when I have had the full measure of enjoyment. Anguirel would tell you of a certain game where, though it broke my heart ... I lynched him to win the game.... :). However I dont' find him suspicious enoug to vote for by a long chalk. I'd much rather lynch one of the people who have called me stupid....

Like Form?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, go and plant some sunflowers or something.

Go practice death-defying, Indy.

[the phantom]

That's the spirit, Shasta!