Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real! [Archive] - Page 2

the phantom

04-14-2009, 03:16 PM

The Downers glanced at their watches. It was just past eleven, and no one was precisely certain what time constituted day and night. "I guess it's not a twelve hour cycle," Agan had observed after 6 o'clock, for they had regained consciousness at six in the morning. "Obviously not sun set," Brin had remarked shortly after 8 o'clock. A bit later, Fea suggested midnight, and this opinion was seconded by several.

"If Day truly ends at midnight, then hadn't we better cast our votes?" asked Firefoot.

"But how are we supposed to cast our votes?" asked Formendacil.

"Type them on our computers maybe," suggested Green.

"And if you didn't bring one, maybe write it on a piece of paper," added Gwath.

"Forget the voting," said Izzy. "All I can think about is the actual lynch. I mean- what do we do after we've counted the votes?"

There was an uncomfortable silence. For the first time, it really hit home what was being asked of them. They would actually have to kill one of their fellow Downers, not knowing if they were innocent or not.

Finally Kent spoke up. "No way. I'm not doing it. I mean, honestly. Why don't we just sit here and do nothing? The only person who has done any killing to this point is The Witch King. For all we know there won't be any killing at night, and he just wanted to see us kill each other for his amusement."

There were many who had doubts, but no one said a word. Even if they were in favor of a lynch, how could they possibly say so to everyone else. How could you look your fellow Downers in the eye and say, "No, I really think I ought to try and kill one of you"?

Kuru's watch beeped. "It's midnight," he said unnecessarily. Everyone knew what time it was. In the silence, it seemed that they could hear the sound of a huge waterfall, deep and thunderous. It grew louder, and soon the tables and chairs shook and glasses fell from behind the bar and shattered on the floor. And then silence again, followed by the dull thud of Nienna's body hitting the floor.

A cold lifeless voice spoke from the walls and floor and ceiling. "You have failed to cast any votes, but there must be a death, and so I have taken an innocent from you. Such is the penalty for your lack of participation. Your only hope lies in following the rules of the game. Do not fail again."

There was a flash of light, and all the Downers fell to the floor or slumped in their chairs. It was night.

the phantom

04-14-2009, 10:09 PM

Aganzir's eyes popped open, and she immediately lifted her head from the table on which she rested. She cried out in pain. Her cheek and hair had broken contact most painfully, as the table was extremely sticky from mugs which had spilled their contents the previous day.

She grabbed a wad of napkins and attempted to wipe some of the residue from her face, but a voice behind her whispered, "Don't bother cleaning up, dear." A strong arm wrapped around her neck. "Nobody looks good when they're dead anyway."

---------------

All at once the Downers awoke from their sleep as if startled by some loud noise, or painful touch.

"Is night over?" said Lari immediately, leaping to her feet.

"Is anyone dead?" asked Nilp fearfully.

"Look around. Is anyone missing?" said Nogrod.

From across the room, Sally spotted a pair of boots sticking out from beneath a table in the corner. "Over there!" she cried.

Shasta stepped to the table and pulled it sideways, and light fell upon the body of Aganzir. There was a continuous dark bruise all around her neck, and her eyes stared blankly at the ceiling. The cold voice spoke from all around just as it had the day before. "Another innocent lies dead."

---------------

THE LIVING

Alonariel (10)
Brinniel (10)
Fea (10)
Firefoot (10)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (10)
Kent (10)
Kuruharan (10)
Lari (10)
Nilp (10)
Nogrod (9)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Score: 12-3

THE DEAD

Nienna (10) (Ordo, Day 1 lynch)
Aganzir (9) (Ordo, Night 2 kill)

DAY 2 IS OPEN.

edit: added bonus votes

Isabellkya

04-14-2009, 11:21 PM

*achoo*

Oh dear.
Well, right off the bat I'm thinking Gwath and Sally look fishy from their votes yesterDay. Though if wolf mates, would they really be that obvious?

That whole bit about failing to cast any votes, and our only hope is in following the rules. Is something implied to us as a group, or someone in particular? Or just a bit of story telling?

I think I'm going to go search for some anti-dust materials. This place needs a bit of cleaning it seems, wreaking havoc on my sinuses.

*achoo*

Brinniel

04-14-2009, 11:52 PM

Hmm...Aganzir's death is a bit of a surprise. She obviously wasn't a no trail kill. I wonder why the baddies picked her...

That whole bit about failing to cast any votes, and our only hope is in following the rules. Is something implied to us as a group, or someone in particular? Or just a bit of story telling?
I was kinda wondering that myself, though perhaps it is just storytelling.

Nogrod

04-14-2009, 11:54 PM

Well, right off the bat I'm thinking Gwath and Sally look fishy from their votes yesterDay.As well as you Izzy and Brinn, right? :rolleyes:

Well. That was one of the weirdest bandwagons ever.

I mean it's not only that Kuru's confident lead in the votes was unanimously brought even with four consecutive votes to Nienna. But also, it was not done by Nilp, Form, Fea etc. who have a long history with Kuru and who would have particularly wished to see him alive if there was no major reason to lynch him. Let it be added that even if people oftentimes feel insecure with their voting - especially when they think they have only bad choices to choose from - there's an air of apology-making in the last votes that does raise an eyebrow.

All this look fishy indeed. If one could just point one's finger into it.

On another topic. What was this yesterDay Nilp and Firefoot? What were you thinking in here? Agan 216 a seer hint? It strikes me as really interesting that Agan would want to throw a bonus vote out there already - it seems like a rather unfounded move, given the amount of material we have to go on. Hmmm... unless he's the seer... Kuru would be a fairly logical choice as a first night dream, he's well known enough. And that would explain why Agan came out swinging at him.Well, anyway it looks like the baddies took the hint. The remaining question is, whether the baddies were under pressure to kill her because Kuru is one of them or was it just a clean-up operation to be sure?

EDIT: X'd with Brinn...

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 12:05 AM

I'm not understanding the reasons why people decided not to vote for Kuru. I'm not saying he looked obviously bad yesterday and you're out of your mind for not voting for him, but I don't get some of the reasons for not voting for him.

I see why people suspect Kuru and he might be my choice as well - although I'm afraid it will only be a cobbler we get that way. But that's not bad for Day1, or any Day.
-Nogrod
He says it would not be a bad thing to get the cobbler, but that conflicts his first statement that Nog's "afraid" Kuru will only be the cobbler.

That split vote for Nienna and Kuru was wierd too. Someone who earlier harped about we have to kill someone "for real" and we have to be careful, votes for 2 people on Day 1? Were you trying to propel Nienna to the lynch, or in the very least making your best attempt to save Kuru, without over-committing?

I really don't want to see Kuru go so early, as he is not one who comes here often and I'd actually like to experience playing with him (and only one Day is hardly playing).
-Brinn
Nifty excuse to not vote for someone.

No offense met Kuru, but I don't care if you only played every 100 years, if you are a baddie would vote you out as soon as possible, Day 1 or not, aren't in werewolf that much or not, shouldn't be a factor.

Part of me really doesn't want to bandwagon since I'm a bit wary of the others who are part of it, but I think I will anyway since I'd like to give Kuru the opportunity to play at least one more Day.
-Brinn
Is now a good time for you?

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 12:16 AM

Here is my current little rundown before I hit the sack for the night.

Alonariel – No idea, has not appeared

Brinniel – Faintly suspicious

Fea – Always suspicious

Firefoot – Definitely suspicious

Form – ehhh…not too suspicious at this moment

Green – ehhh…also not too suspicious at this moment

Gwath – Definitely suspicious

Izzy – Really not sure

Kent – Suspicious

Lari – AWOL

Nilp – errr…

Nogrod – Faintly suspicious...to my reading seems to have been one of the initial ones to mention Nienna...

Sally – Really not sure

Shasta – Really not sure

Switching it up a little bit, I’m going to analyze some of the ones I’m really not sure about.

Izzy –

#187 appears

#218 – Says Agan is giving Grima too much credit – points out that Grima can only make a gifted fall ill once
Says the baddies may be smoother because they are always in touch
Says we should worry too much about the extra votes

#259 – Says she doesn’t understand why Agan and I are appearing so shifty to everyone else
Says Nog looks like himself
Says she is tempted to vote Nienna

#267 – Votes Nienna

I agree with a number of the things she says. She seems quite sensible and reasonable…which in a way I find troubling. Then she voted for Nienna.

Sally –

#233 – appears, whips us all into shape

#250 – Substantive comment is that there wasn’t much to do on Day One
Says she will be watching who hordes votes
Doesn’t find Grima hunting useful
Says that some are more off the wall when they are wolves
Comments on how little posting took place on Day One

#258 – Says she has no idea who to vote for yet

#262 – Wants to review Nienna

#266 – Votes Nienna

Some useful comments but then ends up voting Nienna.

Shasta –

#205 – appears, says he is processing events

Disappears and doesn’t return.

It may be mistaken but my initial instinct is that wolves would post more.

I don't think all of these are werewolves (obviously because they are not on my "Suspicious" list) but I definitely think at least one might be.

No offense met Kuru, but I don't care if you only played every 100 years, if you are a baddie would vote you out as soon as possible, Day 1 or not, aren't in werewolf that much or not, shouldn't be a factor.

An admirable sentiment, one I, in fact, completely agree with.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 12:24 AM

Well sure, Nog. From your perspective you could lump all of us Nienna voters in the fishy category. Then, you'd be fish-ifying yourself.

Brin's saving of Kuru looked genuine. Unless she doesn't normally do that?

Gwath's and Sally's votes for Nienna look the most bandwagonish. They seemingly come out of nowhere - as in; literally right after you posted about her.

X'd with Kuru.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 12:38 AM

That split vote for Nienna and Kuru was wierd too. Someone who earlier harped about we have to kill someone "for real" and we have to be careful, votes for 2 people on Day 1? Were you trying to propel Nienna to the lynch, or in the very least making your best attempt to save Kuru, without over-committing?

Perhaps the opposite maybe? Since according to the sheets tacked to the wall over there - whomever has the most votes last would get the axe. I wonder about your voting order there Nog.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 12:56 AM

He says it would not be a bad thing to get the cobbler, but that conflicts his first statement that Nog's "afraid" Kuru will only be the cobbler.
That split vote for Nienna and Kuru was wierd too.We only get to lynch one person. We should get a werewolf (or a vampire). That's the best option and we should try to do it whenever possible. We should also get rid of the cobbler but that's the second one in priority. So as I believed Kuru to be "only" a cobbler then I would be afraid lynching him would not give us a wolf eg. our primary target. What's the problem with that?

The split vote follows from that. One vote for someone I believed to be a wolf and another to someone I believed to be the cobbler.

Were you trying to propel Nienna to the lynchOf course I was. I thought she was a wolf and I wished to vote her for that. Do you vote people without wishing to see them lynched?

or in the very least making your best attempt to save Kuru, without over-committing?You call sending someone in a three vote lead before the deadline "an attempt to save that person without over-committing"?
You have an interesting vocabulary indeed! :rolleyes:

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 01:08 AM

whomever has the most votes last would get the axe. I wonder about your voting order there Nog.What about it? I gave Nienna her first vote and Kuru his fifth. What possible meaning would there be in the fact that I in a sense "first" voted Nienna and then Kuru?

But that raises an interesting question. I mean does it really matter if someone gives two players their last votes ending up with even number of leading votes on both? Does it then mean that which one the person voted "first" - even if it is in a same post - gets out from the trouble and the "latter" is lynched eg. is there a "first" and "second" vote if you vote two people in a same post like I did yesterDay?

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 01:34 AM

Nifty excuse to not vote for someone.

No offense met Kuru, but I don't care if you only played every 100 years, if you are a baddie would vote you out as soon as possible, Day 1 or not, aren't in werewolf that much or not, shouldn't be a factor.
If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.

Of course I'm not saying no one else should vote for that player; it's your own choice. But when I don't have any clear suspects, I will vote to save someone I'd like to see alive longer. At that point, it doesn't really matter if they're acting suspicious. Typically the most suspicious behaving player on Day One (who usually does get lynched) turns out to be an ordo. And of course I'm not going to give people free passes the entire game. I'm not sure about toDay, but certainly by toMorrow everyone is fair game in my book.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 02:33 AM

That is what I was wondering Nog. Because technically you made your vote for Kuru after you voted for Nienna, essentially twice then retracted one of those votes. You wouldn't of been able to vote for Kuru if you hadn't of retracted one from Nienna.

Which brings up something else. You said you thought Nienna was a wolf, and Kuru a cobbler. So why even place a vote for Kuru, when lynching a wolf is of a higher priority?

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 04:36 AM

Well, this certainly was an interesting kill. Got me thinking in a certain direction . . . Narrows down my suspicions somewhat.

On another topic. What was this yesterDay Nilp and Firefoot? What were you thinking in here?I can't speak for Firefoot, natürlich, but as for me I distrust any Seer hints made at certain (inopportune) times, and thus I make it an effort to expose such suspicious things. On any other DAY, perhaps, I would have kept such things to myself. But if you think doing such things make certain members of this group suspicious, I can't help you there.

But I hardly think you guilty, despite attacking half the village. I don't think you'd be that pointblank had you a hidden life. ;) Mwahaha.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 04:51 AM

Which brings up something else. You said you thought Nienna was a wolf, and Kuru a cobbler. So why even place a vote for Kuru, when lynching a wolf is of a higher priority?I'm not sure I should even bother answering your odd questions any more... Well, one doesn't exactly know who is what on Day1, right? So voting for two people you suspect the most furthers the chances that one of them gets lynched in comparison to other candidates. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

That is what I was wondering Nog. Because technically you made your vote for Kuru after you voted for Nienna, essentially twice then retracted one of those votes. You wouldn't of been able to vote for Kuru if you hadn't of retracted one from Nienna.I have to ask you about this though. Would you explain me what are you after with this for it beats me entirely. I just don't get what you're saying - or the relevance of it.

Okay. Let me put it like this. The last one reaching the highest vote is lynched. Kuru's fifth vote was mine (33 min. before the DL) and Nienna's was the one given by Brinn (3 min. before the DL). Therefore Nienna got lynched because she got her last vote half an hour later than Kuru did.

Now how does this relate to the question of me choosing to vote Nienna first and Kuru the second - and what are you trying to imply would have been different or would have made my vote more/less suspicious in your eyes had I done it the other way around? I simply don't see it.

But I do understand that you prefer to discuss the voting of other people as yours look so bad... and the thing that worries me a bit as well is that your questions look so... how should one say it in English... factitious, artificial? Or maybe I'm just missing their point?

I'll come back to the voting and posting of Day1 a bit later.

But I hardly think you guilty, despite attacking half the village.
Haha... I don't think I have attacked half the village but I probably have suspected a third of it openly. And that's what we need to do in order to catch the baddies. And we all need to suspect more.

Old werewolf wisdom, part VII: Those who stab you at Night normally rub you nicely during the Day.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 06:12 AM

I said what I said knowing you'd say and think that.

I love this game. :D

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 06:35 AM

Sheesh, players these days are lazy. :p

The DAY 1 vote list (times in GMT +8; known innocents underlined):

19:10 Nilp - Sally
Sally - 1

04:58 Green - Agan (no highlight)
Sally - 1

06:39 Kuru - Agan
Sally - 1, Agan - 1

08:27 Fea - Agan
Sally - 1, Agan - 2

09:47 Nienna - Nog
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1

10:02 Agan - Kuru +1
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 2

10:54 Kent - Kuru
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 3

12:11 Firefoot - Kuru
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 4

12:20 Form - Nilp
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 4, Nilp - 1

12:27 Nog - Nienna, Kuru
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 1

12:35 Gwath - Nienna
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 2

12:38 Sally - Nienna
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 3

12:39 Izzy - Nienna
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 4

12:57 Brinn - Nienna
Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 5

Did not vote: Alonariel, Shasta, Green (invalid vote).

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 06:42 AM

My suspect list toDAY is pretty definite. But first, I need to say:

There's always a trail. Even the lack of an obvious one means there's a hidden one. A kill to confuse, for example, means those under suspicion the previous DAY are usually not guilty.
More often than not (unless our good Mod phantom is involved), this game can be pretty straightforward.

Who would get it? Let the head-scratching begin. (I really love this game. :D )

Firefoot

04-15-2009, 07:14 AM

On another topic. What was this yesterDay Nilp and Firefoot? What were you thinking in here? Well, anyway it looks like the baddies took the hint. The remaining question is, whether the baddies were under pressure to kill her because Kuru is one of them or was it just a clean-up operation to be sure?

Well, obviously Agan was not the seer. If Kuru is not a wolf, the wolves would have known this, so this wouldn't be the reason that they killed her, as she would have just been an ordo (or a non-seer gifted). If Kuru was a wolf, though, and Agan was the seer, this wouldn't really make sense either since then we'd all know Kuru was a wolf because we'd know Agan was the seer. Unless they just wanted to limit the chance that she'd dream of another wolf... so that begs the question, even though Agan wasn't the seer (say she had a really lucky guess and the wolves thought she was), is Kuru a wolf anyway?

Or were the wolves not even thinking about the seer and just decided that Agan was too much of a liability?

And as for what I was thinking... a potential seer lead seemed like a really good Day 1 reason to vote Kuru. And if Agan actually had been the seer, I think the wolves would have guessed it... that's a little bit too lucky, to just pick one person basically off the bat, and then be so confident as to put two votes on him, and get it right.

Otherwise my vote would have been more or less random...

And just so you all know, I probably won't be around much toDay. Wednesdays are busy busy busy.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:46 AM

Has a last minute bandwagon ever worked? Ever!? I'm not saying I was right and y'all messed it up after I went to bed, given I obviously voted somebody who wasn't evil, but really? Nienna? You thought she looked guilty?

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:48 AM

Consequently, everybody who voted for Nienna looks squeaky clean to me, given that wolves aren't foolish enough to draw attention to themselves so soon. They never are. It's always misguided ordos that bandwagon last minute on a first day.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:50 AM

And because almost everybody who's playing knows perfectly well that last minute bandwagons on Day One are almost always (or just always) ineffective, that puts a new slant on the voters: everybody's experienced in this game, minus Alonariel (who's missing) and Kent (who's doing quite well regardless), so everybody should know better.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:52 AM

(if it's not a given, I'm posting in fragments so that the internet actually lets me post; long stuff isn't an option)

Consequently, since everybody ought to know better, I'm torn between thinking everybody who voted Nienna (except Nog, for his double-vote, first off) is either basically innocent, or is incredibly brazen.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:53 AM

Except- logic dictates that brazenness typically doesn't happen because it's a lot of effort to keep up, and most people want to take the easy way out.

The question becomes: is it easier to sit back and let confused villagers mess things up on their own, or is it easier to make it look like they did?

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:57 AM

I'm willing to temporarily bank on the fact that the bad guys wouldn't jump out so quickly when there was/is absolutely no reason to draw attention to themselves. Consequently, my attention is off Brinn, Izzy, Sally, and Gwath, and on Kent, Firefoot, and Nog.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 07:58 AM

Particularly Nog. Really? A double vote? Why spread yourself unless you know something, and if you know something, why spread your votes to cover somebody who turns out innocent?

And I'm focusing on those who attacked Kuru, because he's an easy target.

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 08:16 AM

Gwath's and Sally's votes for Nienna look the most bandwagonish. They seemingly come out of nowhere - as in; literally right after you posted about her.

Like we were trying to save Kuru? Is that what you're saying? Why wouldn't we have just voted Aganzir in that case? Nogrod's case against Kuru seemed to me vastly more substantial (particularly for Day 1) than anything that had been said against Kuruup to that point. Besides, two votes doesn't make a bandwagon.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 08:37 AM

I just realised it when Fea finally posted something...

Now in a game organised by the phantom, what do you think are the odds that Fea is not a baddie? Zero. What are the chances she is Thuringwethil? I'd say 75%. :rolleyes:

And what she said gives one reason to believe that it is so.

The only problem which I have with this interpretation is that it all looks even too easy and straightforward. Kuru-wolf is in trouble and his friend goes and helps him out in the last minute rush - and then Fea-vampire comes cleaning up the mess by trying to say those Nienna-wagoners must all be innocent - and that Kuru-voters will get her extra-attention because he's an easy lynch... (that probably is a threat for anyone willing to vote for Kuru toDay as well?)

Okay. I'm not buying that all quite yet but I need to think about it.

Particularly Nog. Really? A double vote? Why spread yourself unless you know something
Well, one doesn't exactly know who is what on Day1, right? So voting for two people you suspect the most furthers the chances that one of them gets lynched in comparison to other candidates. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.:p

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 08:45 AM

No, of course no one intends it to be insulting... unless, of course, by being insulting we manage to provoke you into revealing that you're a wolf.
-Formendacil
Don't worry, I got ya, I think it was just the wording and my own paranoia. Is it natural to think everyone is after you and around every corner your killer awaits?

You call sending someone in a three vote lead before the deadline "an attempt to save that person without over-committing"?
You have an interesting vocabulary indeed!
-Nogrod
You may have voted for Kuru, but in the same breath you drew suspicion away from him and turned the focus on Nienna. Which your suspicions just didn't make sense.

Nog was vaugly making me a bit nervous if only because he was so insistent on us all begining to start theorizing and discussing but this may be just a normal Nog thing to do...
-Nienna
Then, as Form pointed out, after Form stated his vote might possibly go my way she comes up with:
Your first point looks alright, because I don't know why Nienna would think your insistance we do something would make you suspicious. I have no idea how you play, I'm assuming from what I've seen so far you are a heavy talker, so I didn't get Nienna's point. But the rest of your reasons are pretty suspect...

Especially that "I reserve the right to be completely and utterly wrong" strikes me very bad indeed.
Why? It looked like a different way, and rather creative, to say "I'm not sure," what oh so "very bad" about the statement?

Also she has posted what, three times, with basically nothing to say.
This just looks like another tack on for anyone to gobble up and latch onto

I'm not sure why you, or Form, or Fea, or anyone assume that by Kuru putting a hint about his role in his title would be "clumsy." Clumsy would suggest he made a slip up or some foolish error. But from my understanding Kuru is a long-time player, and if he did leave some coded message in a title or post, that's purposeful not clumsiness. It looks like a clever move actually, if someone believes they can get away with it.

The split vote follows from that. One vote for someone I believed to be a wolf and another to someone I believed to be the cobbler.
I'm not sure yet about you, but I will say if you are being honest, than it's possible a wolf grabbed your coat tail to get the wagon starting on Nienna and away from Kuru.

And I'm focusing on those who attacked Kuru, because he's an easy target.
-Fea
Why is he the easy target today? Because Agan's dead?

That's funny, because if the wolves are trying to set someone up, why not set up Agan and kill Kuru? Based on yesterday, Agan would seem to have been the easier target today. The only people who expressed no desire to lynch Agan were Form and myself. And Form voted for Kuru, but he sounded like his mind could be changed about Kuru. Sally and Firefoot were sounded indifferent regarding Agan and Kuru yesterday.

Kuru was almost lynched, but he had stronger support than Agan. Brinn didn't vote for him, saying he looked like the easy target Nogrod and Formendacil said they can't imagine Kuru being that clumsy regarding his tile...the people who tacked on votes against Nienna late indirectly supported Kuru...and today Fea, you echo Brinn about Kuru being an easy target...hmm?

If the wolves were looking to kill Agan, so we would suspect Kuru and lynch an innocent Kuru the next day, they only seem to be making more work for themselves. And besides me, I haven't seen anyone today state any sort of suspicion towards Kuru.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 08:48 AM

Something I forgot in my last post...

Agan suspicious because of smilies. Really, come on? You seriously were analyzing smilie placement? And I'm the newbie here? :rolleyes: :D

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 09:05 AM

Kuru was an easy target. Is always an easy target. He was, for those who don't know, the first ever Barrowdowns Werewolf Victor. Against me. People's first games are never forgotten.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 09:05 AM

Nog: I'm not Th-what'shername. Kent: even smilies are fair game to be analyzed. :smokin:

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 09:32 AM

If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.
-Brinn
I mean nothing ill, fairness is just something I don't understand for this...Maybe it's just the person, but I don't want to be given easy treatment just because this is my first game. I want to be judged on the same standards (although some differences are understandable), but the fact that if someone was suspicious of me, but didn't vote for me because I'm new and ended up voting for Nienna, that doesn't seem very fair to her and it also makes me feel kind of crappy. Like..."Wow the only reason I'm alive is because of the pity for me being a newbie."

This seems like a bad game to try to be fair, because it's virtually impossible, someone will always be screwed on Day 1, just as someone will always be screwed for the wolves first killed. That's the reality, and I would have been frustrated had I been lynched in my first day, but I would have understood, and I feel pretty crappy if I find out someone else was lynced because people are taking it easy on me. :(

This is probably just different opinions on the matter, but if you do find an effective way to be fair in this game, please let me know. :)

Speaking of fairness...
Kent: even smilies are fair game to be analyzed.
-Fea
Agreed, but when you call someone talking about personal titles a stretch and proceed to analyze the placement of that person's smilies, that just looks silly.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 09:34 AM

Don't worry, I got ya, I think it was just the wording and my own paranoia. Is it natural to think everyone is after you and around every corner your killer awaits?

Natural? Is there anything "natural" about this game? :p I don't know if it's natural, but it's certainly normal. Well, unless you're the phantom, maybe...

Now, let's set a few things right about the record here...

I'm not sure why you, or Form, or Fea, or anyone assume that by Kuru putting a hint about his role in his title would be "clumsy." Clumsy would suggest he made a slip up or some foolish error. But from my understanding Kuru is a long-time player, and if he did leave some coded message in a title or post, that's purposeful not clumsiness. It looks like a clever move actually, if someone believes they can get away with it.

It's too overt, basically. Now, a cobbler CAN be deliberate--no doubt about that. It just doesn't make sense on Day 1, when you've got the whole village smelling of fish to stick yourself out an extra foot. Classic Cobbler strategy, and I've never seen anyone play a convincing game in another way, is to survive. You either survive so that the Wolves have that crucial extra vote in the later rounds of the game, or else you survive so that you can take the heat off them in the later rounds of the game.

On Day 1, there is no way that Kuru could know who the Wolves were, so I most certainly do not think he would have put himself on the line to save someone under attack (which would be who? Agan?). And if he wanted to do a pile of damage at the beginning of the game rather than the end, he could have used a stack of his bonus votes to skew things in all sorts of weird directions--either deciding the vote or making everyone else start wasting their bonus votes.

What's more, the Gríma role has an actual effective power that could be used again Lúthien at a later date--another reason for a potential cobbler to stay under the radar and live longer.

All that would be why I don't see someone as experienced as Kuru being so overt on Day 1.

Now, on to a factual error...

And Form voted for Kuru, but he sounded like his mind could be changed about Kuru.

I most certainly did not. You need to go back and revisit my post. I am 99.9999999% certain I voted for one Nilpaurion Felagund. I did not vote for Kuru because I did not think he was the cobbler. If I had, I would have had no Nog-like qualms about killing him. A cobbler is a fine catch to make on a Day 1--but I didn't think we'd caught one.

Speaking of Nilp, I feel like I should keep more of an eye on him this game. He has a tendency to slip under my radar because of his long-standing auto-vote, self-destruct, and-guess-what?-he's-an-ordo role, and long-standing prejudices are hard to shake... and Nilp has a long standing "good guy" prejudice in my mind. Not saying he's guilty (no evidence in the slightest to do so yet), but reminding myself to do so.

More anon...

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 09:43 AM

If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.

I'm somewhat concerned that I find myself agreeing with Kent again... always a bad sign when someone seems to think the way you do in this game... but I'm also not buying this completely. Sorry, Brinn.

My difficulty here is that you voted for Nienna... who was admittedly not the most newbie nor the most silent person present yesterDay, but she had a good smattering of both. Now, I suppose it's possible that you saw/see Nienna as a toughened battle-veteran of WW, and given the amount of noise being made yesterday, I suppose she was in the noisy part of the pack... but still... I'm not entirely convinced.

It seems to me by your reasoning, Kuru would have been a more logical vote than Nienna. He was an old player, he'd done a lot of talking...

What's more, your vote for Nienna was decisive. Granted, you couldn't KNOW you were the final vote (three minutes before the deadline is early for a last vote, by the standards of some games), but you certainly knew you were putting Nienna into contention.

So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 10:10 AM

Duly noted.

And Kent: we keep it fair, in terms of saving newbies at the expense of others, by behaving thusly with all new players. Less experienced players get the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't make for fair individual games, but it does balance out in the long haul.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2009, 10:26 AM

Having read so far, I only have one thing to respond to (so far... :p):

We only get to lynch one person. We should get a werewolf (or a vampire). That's the best option and we should try to do it whenever possible. We should also get rid of the cobbler but that's the second one in priority. So as I believed Kuru to be "only" a cobbler then I would be afraid lynching him would not give us a wolf eg. our primary target. What's the problem with that?

The problem with that is that lynching a cobbler is better than lynching an innocent, and you can never be sure whether or not someone is a cobbler unless you lynch them. Unless you have a better lead on a wolf, I don't see any reason not to go after a Cobbler even if they do count as innocent.

More later.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 11:40 AM

I'm somewhat concerned that I find myself agreeing with Kent again... always a bad sign when someone seems to think the way you do in this game... but I'm also not buying this completely. Sorry, Brinn.

My difficulty here is that you voted for Nienna... who was admittedly not the most newbie nor the most silent person present yesterDay, but she had a good smattering of both. Now, I suppose it's possible that you saw/see Nienna as a toughened battle-veteran of WW, and given the amount of noise being made yesterday, I suppose she was in the noisy part of the pack... but still... I'm not entirely convinced.

It seems to me by your reasoning, Kuru would have been a more logical vote than Nienna. He was an old player, he'd done a lot of talking...
Buy it or not, I stick to my own values. I have voted to save these types of players in games where I'm innocent and games where I'm a wolf because I genuinely try to be a fair person regardless of my role. And perhaps you don't agree it's fair, but it's how I feel and that's sometimes how I will vote on Day One, especially since most often I don't suspect anyone that much so early in the game.

Why do you think Kuru would be a more logical vote for me? As an older and more reputable player, I do value him more than a less experienced player. Sure he could be a wolf, but I don't suspect him right now and if he's innocent, he could be quite helpful to the village. I was the last vote of the Day, so it was up to me to decide Kuru and Nienna's fate. I admit I didn't suspect Nienna all that much, but between the two I found her to be more suspicious.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 12:14 PM

It's too overt, basically. Now, a cobbler CAN be deliberate--no doubt about that. It just doesn't make sense on Day 1,
-Formendacil
But maybe it's the best time to be overt, because how seriously do people take Day 1? You said yourself Day 1, on Day 1 is virtually useless, and becomes useful after the fact.

Now, on to a factual error...
And so comes my first big blunder, most likely of many. :D

I was thinking of the 5-5 tie, and forgot that Agan used one of her bonus votes, so mistakenly thought 5 people voted for Kuru.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 12:21 PM

While I was at work this morning I was pondering why Aganzir was the kill choice last night.

The first and most obvious reason to kill Aganzir is that I am a wolf and the wolves thought they had found the Seer in her pegging me. However, this is impossible in every way because I am not a wolf and besides my ownself nobody knows that better than them. It is possible, perhaps, that they thought she was the Seer who had found Grima, but alas for them and goodie for us (if this is what they thought) they were wrong on both counts.

The second reason why they may have chosen to kill Aganzir is they were trying to set me up. It would seem possible given the fact that Aganzir would turn out innocent that the village would turn on me toDay and I would be lynched. If this is the case it is a bit clumsy but not particularly dangerous to the wolves and they may have thought it worth trying.

The third reason is that yesterDay she mentioned as being suspicious somebody else who is a baddie and the wolves wanted to dispose of her before she really got going on that other line of thought. Others at least vaguely mentioned by her include Brinn, some minor arguing with Kent, minor suspicion of Gwath and a bit of Greenie. She also bantered considerably with Form. Not sure its prudent to make much of that.

The fourth reason is that for personal reasons one of the wolves felt particularly threatened by Aganzir and wanted her out of the way as quickly as possible. If this is the case it might in some ways be the hardest to trace because the killing wouldn't necessarily have any relation to anything that happened previously.

The fifth reason is that Aganzir may have been so far off yesterDay in everything she said that the baddies felt completely safe in getting rid of her now.

The sixth reason is that Aganzir may have been a random kill.

Obviously, not all of these can be the case because several are mutually incompatible. I personally discount 6 completely because I don't think people have the luxury of acting randomly in this and even if they were wanting to their actions would probably be informed by prior events more than they would suppose.

I believe that it could be a mixture of options 2-4 (although option 4 would be an outlier but it could dovetail). Which one was the foremost in their minds at the time is currently an unanswerable question.

Comments? Any further possibilities why Aganzir was the target last night?

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 12:24 PM

Oh and...

And Kent: we keep it fair, in terms of saving newbies at the expense of others, by behaving thusly with all new players. Less experienced players get the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't make for fair individual games, but it does balance out in the long haul.
-Fea
Ok, now I get your logic. I disagree, but I understand the reasons, and I could continue to argue about this in circles, but I will just say...for myself, just know I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 12:42 PM

I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.Let it be added that this "benefit of doubt" basically covers the first-timer mainly on Day1. ON Day2 most people are ready to handle the newbie as anyone else.

And sure we have different newbies. I think you need no extra protection. Keep on playing, you do it well.

On a second note. Interesting how Kuru appears very helpful doing an analysis on why Aganzir was killed - but looking at it more closely - how do I get a feeling it's more a post trying to convince us he's no baddie than a post to clarify the reasons behind Agan's death?

Someone questioned why no-one has suspected Kuru toDay. Well I can confess that I still do.

But I'll now try to look at other possibilities as well - and what could be implied if Kuru is a wolf / a cobbler.

A Little Green

04-15-2009, 12:55 PM

I'm here at last. Quite frankly I would have thought I'd be able to be around more toDay but school stuff took more time than I expected.

First of all, seems like my yesterDay's vote was pretty much a fiasco - I don't really know how come I forgot about the highlight, and by the time I received Agan's SMS the Day was already over. Not that my Agan-vote would have been worth being counted... :rolleyes:

I was about to make a list but decided against it when I realised I had so little to say about anyone. My list looked mostly like a mixture of "No read", "No idea", "Under the radar" and "Seems okay". I'd love to have a better look at yesterDay's voting (the Nienna bandwagon was disturbing), but I don't think I have the time today since I still have some schoolwork to do.

I had something else I wanted to say but can't seem to remember what it was. Hope I can come up with than still at some point. All I can recall is that it was something clever. :p

EDIT: x-ed with Kuru, Kent and Noggins

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 01:08 PM

But maybe it's the best time to be overt, because how seriously do people take Day 1? You said yourself Day 1, on Day 1 is virtually useless, and becomes useful after the fact.

Well, I'm willing to leave you the caveat that a cobbler might do such a thing. I just don't see it as at all likely. My difficulty with your theory is that it requires a lot more foreknowledge of what is going to come--and who's who--than a Cobbler is likely to possess. Which is not the say that Kuru could not make an exceptionally smart cobbler--he's no dunce--but we're talking about prescience here. There simply wasn't enough talking going on prior to Kuru being accused of cobblery for him to have identified the wolves. And even if by some miracle he HAD identified them, he'd also have to know all of our characters really well to know how things were going to play out. That's where being a new player is an advantage--Kuru might have me figured backwards and forwards, but not you.

Basically, I just cannot envision a cobbler willfully drawing attention to himself on Day 1, except possibly to just wreak general havoc and leaving us wondering--but that would be a strategic loss to Team Wolf, since this cobbler actually has a one-time power. Far better, it would seem, to wait until he has a chance to use that one-time block and actually save wolfish lives than to throw it away at the beginning on the random chance of havoc.

Comments? Any further possibilities why Aganzir was the target last night?

One hugely important thing that might be involved is that whoever the wolves select as their nighttime kill has the potential, if an ordo, to become the new member of their pack, rather than supper. Granted, it's a one-in-six chance, but at this point in the game, when perhaps none of them are under suspicion, they picked a supper victim who would have the greatest chance of NOT being identified as a potential victim if we all woke up today, and no one was dead.

To put it in other words, perhaps the wolves decided that, if Aganzir was converted to their side, and we woke up today with no one missing from our midst, she'd be the last one we'd look for as a converted new wolf, simply because she had been so conspicuous yesterday, and thus the sort of noisy person that wolves leave around to keep the heat off themselves.

I'm hardly wedded to this, but it's the best theory that offers something rather than just random confusion as the answer--at least to my mind.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 01:15 PM

I'll start with my two cents on Day1 voting.

First I have to say I do dislike both the votes of Nilp and Form. Everyone is granted to like or dislike Day1's as much as they wish, but wrapping one's vote into a joke-paper is plain indecent and cowardish. We are left totally clueless about their votes but they can join the speculation over the other votes - and that is intentional. Very suspicious to me.

Secondly there is this oddly little-discussed mini-bandwagon on Agan. Greenie started with giving a reason for her early vote. Kuru joined the thought understandbly after the little row between him and Agan. Then Fea joined the voting. These were three votes in a row - even if Greenie's vote didn't count in the finally tally her intent was clear.

I'm afraid of Greenie every game I play with her as she has the capability to fool me completely but her vote looks the best of the three.

There was also a bandwagon on Kuru, started by Aganzir. Of those votes I'm still wondering most about Firefoot's "open" declaration of voting Kuru because she thinks Agan is the seer and has already dreamt of Kuru. It really baffles me. That's something an ordo tries to remain silent about.

Then there was that Nienna bandwagon we've already discussed a bit. Interestingly the first voters (after myself that is) eg. Gwath and Sally sticked to saying they suspected Nienna - and the two last ones, namely Izzy & Brinn made a host of reservations how they don't like what they were doing. Sure they had a more decisive position but till I feel a bit uneasy everytime someone says they are having bad feelings about the way they vote. That's something the wolves tend to voice out to make themselves look better.

A Little Green

04-15-2009, 01:23 PM

I have to add to this discussion about granting people a free pass on Day 1 for different reasons. I think it's a sort of nice courtesy not to lynch people on Day 1 in their first game - or in their first game in a very long while - unless there is hard evidence against them. Deciding not to lynch somebody because that said person is enjoyable to play with is a trifle more complicated, since the person voted for instead easily gets a feeling that s/he is not as enjoyable to play with as someone else. And that, in my opinion, is one step away from fair play. After all, this game shouldn't be about lynching those you know little and keeping alive those you know and like best, but instead about letting everyone play and treating everyone fairly regardless of whether they are special favourites of yours or not.

I think Nog has been acting weird toDay. Earlier toDay he was sort of heated and overreacted to simple questions asked of him about his exceptional voting behaviour. Granted, he does that every now and then, but that doesn't make me less unnerved about it. His relation to Kuru seems interesting as well. That, in fact, being another thing I want to look at.

What else? Form, Kent, and Brinn seem innocentish, about the others I really have no idea.

EDIT: x-ed with Form and Nog

A Little Green

04-15-2009, 01:40 PM

I checked the Nienna bandwagon. Actually, the one looking worst to me in that was Noggy. He starts with this: Of the rest I might vote for anyone for just not playing this game. Out from pure annoyance and frustration.

Nienna especially. That was soo bad...

I'll take a short look back and then vote, presumably for one of the slackers.In his next post is a case against Nienna and the double-vote for her and Kuru. What I find interesting is that the earlier post makes it look like he just wants to choose one of the "slackers" (not a nice thing to say, by the way, and I'm not sure I understand what you mean with this anyway), and yet in the next one he brings up his case against Nienna, sounding like he genuinely suspected her of wolvery. I find this kind of controversial, rather like a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard.

About the other Nienna-voters, then. Gwath and Sally both make their posts look like they decided to vote Nienna almost entirely based on Nog's post. Where that did make me raise an eyebrow, I agree with Fea - a wolf might want to avoid bandwagoning as obviously as that, knowing that it's considered classic clumsy wolf behaviour. Of the other two, Izzy looks slightly better based on the fact that she talked about Nienna before this bandwagon came out of nowhere. Brinn's vote looks innocentish too, though I, like Nog, feel somewhat wary about people who say they dislike their own vote and still vote the way they do.

A Little Green

04-15-2009, 01:44 PM

I'm off to sleep since I need to be up at half past six tomorrow. I'll vote

++ Nogrod (this time I got the red colour right!!)

because he's the one I feel most uncomfortable about at the moment. For further reasoning, see my two previous posts. Good night!

EDIT: wow, triple posting!! :eek:

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 01:44 PM

This one makes me crazy as I'm not sure whether I should agree with it or think of Form being the suspicious one here:
So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.Somehow I'm bending more into believing Brinn - she tends to play with a set of "values" as I do. These include wishing to treat old-timers coming back to the fray from a long time more leniently (like newbies) on Day1 - or not wishing to lynch the kind of "strong players" on Day1 - if there is not a reason to actually think them guilty (here we differed on Day1 one: I thought there was a reason to believe Kuru was not on the good side, she didn't).

The thing that makes me look at this post by Form suspiciously is the bolded part of it. The moral highground of after-wisdom!

I need to look at Form a bit more as I'm afraid some of these suspicions may stem from just the fact that we differ on many things in this game and it's easy to read disagreement as suspicious if one is not careful enough. And he makes good points as well, to be sure.

The wolves are also perfectly cabable of doing it though. :)

EDIT X'd with Greenie x2 - oh great!

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2009, 02:07 PM

Having read the last couple posts, I've become a bit suspicious of Greenie now. First, Nogrod mentions her as one of the people he's "afraid of" and suddenly Greenie finds Nogrod more suspicious than anyone else? While I'm not sure a wolf would be so blatant and defensive, I think she needs to be looked at; I've a feeling about her.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 02:08 PM

In his next post is a case against Nienna and the double-vote for her and Kuru. What I find interesting is that the earlier post makes it look like he just wants to choose one of the "slackers" (not a nice thing to say, by the way, and I'm not sure I understand what you mean with this anyway), and yet in the next one he brings up his case against Nienna, sounding like he genuinely suspected her of wolvery. I find this kind of controversial, rather like a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard.Okay, let's start with the politically correct behaviour. The term 'slackers' was straight loan from Sally's post where she called people slackers for not posting enough. I agreed with her - and also about her being one... :) So no offence meant.

But yes, I did actually suspect Nienna of wolvery and she was one of the least posting persons on Day1. So I can see no problem there as she fitted both categories (not posting & suspicious) to me. On the other hand, I wouldn't have had anything against Alonariel, Shasta, Sally, Fea... except that they posted a way too little. So voting someone of them back there would probably have been just a vote wasted. (That's why I think people should post if they play)

How come you Greenie don't call your own "case" against Agan yesterDay (known innocent) or on me toDay (an innocent) "a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard"? :)

One thing about style once more. Why do you say grasping it "a tad too hard"? What was "too hard" there? Giving a reason and a vote? Now that kind of talk is called rhetorics which is the most convenient tool for those who know what they are doing.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2009, 02:29 PM

I almost decided to post why I've been so gone recently, but I decided that's better left to the admin thread. I'll go there after I'm done with this post. :rolleyes:

Anyway, re: Nogrod on Form.

The thing that makes me look at this post by Form suspiciously is the bolded part of it. The moral highground of after-wisdom!

in which the bolded part is:

So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.

Now, Nogrod. You're saying that the thing that makes you the most suspicious of Form is that he doesn't see the same thing Brinn does? How on earth does that make sense? Explain it to me, would you?

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 02:40 PM

Btw. You should pay heed to what Agan and I said already yesterDay: the number of bonus votes staying up with everyone will be against the village on a long run - and that run might be short indeed. You may think it's an individual guarantor making you more powerful in a tight spot but you should realise that that is a mind-trap.

For in a hard situation innocents are collectively more reluctant to - and basically unable to - use a lot of their power concentratedly but those who know what they are doing can calculate the level of force used and the target exactly. That means that 30 (or 40) evil votes against, let's say 70 votes, is far greater power than 3 (or 4) votes gainst 7. And getting into that exemplary situation takes only two Days of missed lynches (this included)!

I know I'm fighting windmills here but at least I can say afterwards "didn't I tell you?" :(

The problem of course is that if there is no common deal that we should make a collective disarmament the baddies will not give up their voting power - and it might be too late already for that to be tried. Blah... this looks bad indeed. :confused:

You're saying that the thing that makes you the most suspicious of Form is that he doesn't see the same thing Brinn does? How on earth does that make sense? Explain it to me, would you?Nope, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the wolves love to gloat with that kind of moral highground afterwards when others vote innocents: "You fools voted for someone whom I saw so clearly was an innocent - or are you fools in the first place? Maybe you're baddies with hidden knowledge?" The manouver tries to make them look reasonable and thoughtful & getting innocents right (eg. they are good to have around) etc... I've seen that too often to believe anyone saying that kind of stuff.

But I must halt your interpretation on another front as well. That is not what I find most suspicious with Form and to be honest I think I'm quite at loss with him at the moment. I do distrust him but I'm not quite sure he would be my number one - or even number two - choice toDay.

Firefoot

04-15-2009, 02:55 PM

Just ducking in... I'll be around for about another hour or so, and then I'm going to have to vote... I can't guarantee that I'll be back again before the deadline.

Only looking at the order of the votes, I'm generally not seeing a whole lot that looks suspicious. If Kuru was proven to be a wolf, Izzy and Brinn as the last two jumpers on the Nienna bandwagon would look suspicious... but that's a big if.

Now I'm going to read a little closer and try to figure out who to vote for toDay...

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 03:00 PM

Okay... the situation is bad unless we can force the baddies to use their bonus-votes now to save their mate (and possibly reveal themselves in the process) or actually get one of them down toDay if they decided not to save their mate with their extra-votes. Both would do good but it would require a real threat; like someone getting it right and being ready to use a lot of votes for it.

I might consider trying it as I'm not too confident on the number of Days I will be around anyway.

The only problem is that I would need to get it right. Otherwise the plan will fail.

Any ideas of whom I should try? Kuru, Fea, Greenie...?

And where are you people? I need to go to sleep pretty soon as well - even if I still may try to wake up a bit earlier like on Day1 to make, confirm or redo my vote then.

EDit: X'd with Firefoot - good to see someone around.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 03:10 PM

I have to ask you about this though. Would you explain me what are you after with this for it beats me entirely. I just don't get what you're saying - or the relevance of it.

Of course, I'll explain more of what I was thinking.
This situation might help more. If it were to come down to a true tie, and one on the block is a wolf/vampire. Then one of bad intentions could come and vote for both of the candidates. Yet vote for their mate first. Keeping it at a tie, but making sure their mate is safe without being so obvious about it. Afterwards, they could be all "I thought both were evil, and couldn't choose between the two."

Which you can see, is why I wondered about your ordering of votes.

Do you mind pointing out how my vote looks so bad?

I'm liking your style Kent. You seem to be a dive-right-inner.

You could be the vampire, Kuru.

Form, you brought up a good point. The evils could've been looking for a kill choice who had a higher probability of being an Ordo, and thus turnable. Though it looks like that can only happen two/three nights.

How is it a host of reservations, when it was a single word - uncomfortable. Which if you look back, it was about the seeming hoppers - Sally and Gwath whom came out of nowhere.

X'd since Shasta's #323

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 03:18 PM

I'm not seeing anything suspicious about Greenie, maybe it's my bias, but I kind of can put myself in her shoes right now. I don't know what I'm going to do, I don't have any idea who I'm going to vote for, and I still have a while, as I can probably be around at the deadline. Based on Greenie's location, she can't and it may seem like she's grasping at straws, but I'd imagine if you don't know what to think, or who to vote for, and you are hard pressed for time, than that's the kind of suspicious you'll get.

Not all of us are gifted with the "time" to write out clear and concise suspiciouns against people. I'm not suspicious of Nogrod, but Greenie looks very honest right now and I don't see the deal.

Nope, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the wolves love to gloat with that kind of moral highground afterwards when others vote innocents: "You fools voted for someone whom I saw so clearly was an innocent - or are you fools in the first place? Maybe you're baddies with hidden knowledge?" The manouver tries to make them look reasonable and thoughtful & getting innocents right (eg. they are good to have around) etc... I've seen that too often to believe anyone saying that kind of stuff.
-Nogrod
I don't think it's so much someone apologizing for there vote before hand, going back to what I said earlier, I don't see the big deal about Nienna's creative way of saying "I could be wrong."

I wonder if I'm just seeing something that's not there, but I think Form's looks like it doesn't fit.
So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?
It reads as a "by the way," which makes it look like it was added into the statement after the fact. I am not saying Form went back and editted what he originally wrote (there is no "edit" for the post), but I am saying I imagine wolves have to be pretty careful about what they say, and think about what they are saying all the time. This almost looks like it's something Form felt would be a good manuever to add the statement in after the fact, to make him look like he "knew better." Because it does read like a "by the way, I don't see why everyone was suspicious of Nienna yesterday."

Where if you look at Nienna's the reason I didn't understand your point about the..."I reserve the right to be utterly wrong" (paraphrasing - should be close enough), is because it fits with the flow of the post. She lays out her reasons against Nogrod and at the end definitely says "I'm not sure."

This might be..."grasping at straws," but I will say I've read a lot of books and historical documents. I find it fascinating to read them and see what was the written "originally" and then seeing the editting done afterwards, to add in something extra, or maybe to clear up something. The original Declaration of Independence, I think people must get a hold of (I should say a copy of the original) because there are spaces and indications of what words should be emphasized and where people should take their breaths/pauses when reading it. Even funnier, Family Guy makes a point of this with the "Right to bear arms," as the framers discuss in the 'editting' process whether that was "clear enough."

I assume wolves are careful and in ways edit what they say. I don't mean directly go back and edit their posts afterwards, but in the process of writing think about what they're saying and are careful about what they add or don't add. Formendacil's "moral high ground" as Nogrod calls it, doesn't fit - it's like an "I should add this to make myself look better."

I'm probably making much to do about nothing, because I'm really not all that suspicious of Formendacil, but the part in question is out of place.

This x'ed with Nogrod and Izzy

Firefoot

04-15-2009, 03:19 PM

So the more I think about it, the odder Nogrod's vote seems to me. He brings Kuru's count up to 5, at the same time giving Nienna her first vote. It seems like if he was only going to vote once, it would have been for Nienna - and I couldn't find that he ever really says he suspects Kuru that much. It almost looks like a vote for Kuru just because Kuru was a "safe" vote because lots of people suspected him so it wouldn't really be suspicious to also vote for him.

It actually seems rather sloppy.

I see that Izzy also picked up this thread, but Nogrod mostly just brushed her off.

And then this:On a second note. Interesting how Kuru appears very helpful doing an analysis on why Aganzir was killed - but looking at it more closely - how do I get a feeling it's more a post trying to convince us he's no baddie than a post to clarify the reasons behind Agan's death?

Someone questioned why no-one has suspected Kuru toDay. Well I can confess that I still do.

But I'll now try to look at other possibilities as well - and what could be implied if Kuru is a wolf / a cobbler. Huh. Like I said, Nogrod didn't really seem to me all that suspicious of Kuru yesterday at all. And despite saying he was going to look at possibilities of Kuru's wolvishness, he hasn't... he hasn't even really mentioned Kuru again.

Right now, my inclination is a vote towards Nogrod... I'm a little leery of this, because Nogrod's doing far more talking than a lot of people, so I'm wondering if he doesn't just seem suspicious because there's more to analyze of him than most.

My other thought has been that Kent has seemed... a little obsessed... with his newbie status, wanting to be treated fairly and all that... but if he was a wolf I think I'd expect him to play it up differently.

I'd really like to see some other people post before I have to vote... but, as I said, at this point it's probably going to be Nog. And if I'm back before the deadline (I'd say there's about a 50% chance), I'll look at what's new and maybe or maybe not change my vote...

X-ed with Kent.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 03:31 PM

I wonder if I'm just seeing something that's not there, but I think Form's looks like it doesn't fit.

It reads as a "by the way," which makes it look like it was added into the statement after the fact. I am not saying Form went back and editted what he originally wrote (there is no "edit" for the post), but I am saying I imagine wolves have to be pretty careful about what they say, and think about what they are saying all the time. This almost looks like it's something Form felt would be a good manuever to add the statement in after the fact, to make him look like he "knew better." Because it does read like a "by the way, I don't see why everyone was suspicious of Nienna yesterday."

I am deeply amused that this little interjection of mine is getting so much attention. If it reads like "by the way, I don't see why everyone was suspicious of Nienna yesterday," that's because that is very much what I was saying... but in a slightly different tense. More along the lines of "by the way, I didn't see THEN why everyone was suspicious of Nienna." Granted, I may not be helping myself with this clarification... but you ARE more or less interpreting me right--not going to complain about that.:p

I need to look at Form a bit more as I'm afraid some of these suspicions may stem from just the fact that we differ on many things in this game and it's easy to read disagreement as suspicious if one is not careful enough.

This is true enough. I cannot think of a general WW principle we agree on. Day 1 is an excellent case in point... :p

Actually, that's not true... I'm not sure if we agree about my innocence--you seem to have reservations--but, at least for the moment, I agree that you're probably innocent. I may be shooting myself in the foot by trusting you, but it occurs to me that I've disagreed with you in past WW games and had it turn out you were innocent, so for now it just feels like Nogrod is being exactly the Nogrod he ought to be.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 03:34 PM

My other thought has been that Kent has seemed... a little obsessed... with his newbie status, wanting to be treated fairly and all that... but if he was a wolf I think I'd expect him to play it up differently.

Oh hopefully not sounding obsessed, I guess that's better than ungrateful. I really don't want to sound ungrateful for the courtesy, but playing "fair" just wasn't something I was expecting in werewolf. Either way someone is going to be lynched first and killed first by the wolves, that's the nature of it. It might be fair to give me some courtesy, and I understand letting me play a bit, but how is it fair for someone else to get lynched first for the reason of letting me play more? Fair just sounds like it should be foreign in here, at least that's what I was expecting, but props to those who try to be more "fair" than I would be.

At least Nogrod makes it sound like a very short courtesy and it could just be I have no idea what I'm asking for.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2009, 03:36 PM

I feel like I'm jumping around a lot today, but this -

I agree that you're probably innocent. I may be shooting myself in the foot by trusting you, but it occurs to me that I've disagreed with you in past WW games and had it turn out you were innocent, so for now it just feels like Nogrod is being exactly the Nogrod he ought to be.

- rings a number of alarm bells for me. It definitely seems like something a baddie would do (I know, I've seen it done before!)

Edit: X'ed with Kent and changed the person quoted from Kuru to Form.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 03:37 PM

My other thought has been that Kent has seemed... a little obsessed... with his newbie status, wanting to be treated fairly and all that... but if he was a wolf I think I'd expect him to play it up differently.

To be fair, I think I would also be the sort of person to harp on about being a newbie in a game like this if I were to jump in right now--there's a lot of history between some of the players here.

That being said, Kent, you are officially not on my "probably innocent" list because you haven't made a newbie wolf move. Your reasoning is entirely too reasonable (and, yes, I'm willing to grant you're the author) for me to like it. As with Nogrod, I'm almost more comfortable in this game when there are disagreements to unsettle my gut instinct that someone is on my side. In your case, I have no gut instinct about you, so I'll warily accept your reasonability as a sign I don't want to lynch you today.

Sigh... Who do I want to lynch?

Brinn--moderate between guilty and not.
Nogrod--probably not.
Kent--hopefully not.

And that's all I've looked at today... I sort of defended Kuru as not being a cobbler, but that doesn't mean he's not a wolf.

So far no one looking vote-worthy.

Feanor of the Peredhil

04-15-2009, 03:38 PM

++Nog (4)

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 03:42 PM

I feel like I'm jumping around a lot today, but this -

Heh. Yes. Yes, you are.:rolleyes:

- rings a number of alarm bells for me. It definitely seems like something a baddie would do (I know, I've seen it done before!)

Not only have I seen it before, I'm fairly certain I've done it before. Of course, you realise that's not a comprehensive list of reasons I could be doing it. I could be a confused cobbler trying to get the wolves to know he's an ally (I'd be no use to them dead). I could be a Seer hinting at a dream (in which case this may be a very foolish post). Or I'm a gifted/ordo who really does have no good reason to trust Nogrod, but is anyway.

The same could apply to you, Shasta, since I remember not trusting you in the slightest when we've played before, but I think we've played fewer games together, and in any case the gut instinct just isn't there. Sorry.:p

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 04:04 PM

Thanks Fea! My plan seems to work already before I had a chance to put it into practise!

Now I just need to think whether to invest my votes on you or Kuru? Or Greenie - that's a longer story but I just feel her being one of the baddies even if I can't point to any definitive case with her. Yes Kent, she looks perfcectly reasonable - and that's the whole point. A good wolf who plays the "under-radar" -style wishes to do just that: post only once or twice aDay and do not suspect too many people so that no-one feels bad with you; then come up with a suspicion you can back with an argument of any sorts, preferably something that follows the general prejudices flying around but still is something of your own (that's easier you could imagine and Greenie has made it two times now), then vanish to the shadows. She is dangerous, mind you.

PS. Izzy (and Firefoot who seems to think / or wants us to believe Izzy has a point there): I still can't see your point: there is no sense in what you say. Are you just missing something about the rules or are you purposefully trying to distract the discussion? If I give Nienna her first vote and Kuru his fifth there is no tie - no "real-tie" or imagined one! One and five votes are not a tie, they are four votes apart. Brinn's was the tying vote, fifth against fifth. It would have been the same whether I placed my votes this way or that. End of story from my part.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 04:07 PM

o.O such usage of the bonus votes.

Me, I shall go find a dark corner to take a nap. My phone alarm is set, so I should be back a few hours before we've run out of time for our decision. Don't mind the tissues scattered everywhere; I'll clean them up. xD

X'd with Nog

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 04:16 PM

I changed the scenario, so it would be more comprehend-able Nog.
You entering with Nienna/Kuru is blatant messing with my words.
Purposefully trying to make what I say look like something from someone who is completely off their rocker.

I don't believe I'm misinterpreting the items written on the pages over there; nor am I distracting the discussion.

You want to do it your way then, eh?
You gave Nienna her first vote - whom you thought was a wolf.
You gave Kuru his fifth - whom you thought was a Cobbler.

You can, and you have argued that we didn't know whom people were yesterDay.
However even with the lack of knowledge - why would you do such a thing?
You are faced with voting for two people, one you think is a wolf and the other you think is a cobbler.
Why, would you split your votes - in favor of the one whom you thought was a wolf?

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 04:27 PM

Now I just need to think whether to invest my votes on you or Kuru? Or Greenie - that's a longer story but I just feel her being one of the baddies even if I can't point to any definitive case with her. Yes Kent, she looks perfcectly reasonable - and that's the whole point.
-Nogrod
I will not vote for Greenie today, if you want to that's your choice. If you want to push your bonus votes on her, I will make a necessary move to see she is not lynched.

I would just like to point out however about Nogrod's split vote. What I questioned was why? considering he said early in the day we harped about how we "really" have to lynch someone. But I do recall in the Day -1, or somewhere in the records, Nogrod saying it would be interesting to divide your votes and seemed fascinated to try it. That doesn't mean he can't be a wolf and still do it, but I'm not sure we should lynch him based on the grounds that he was the only one to split his vote.

I'm more concerned still about Kuru and Fea's 4 bonus votes - all I can say about it right now is she is fishing for a reaction maybe?

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 04:42 PM

And where are you people?

I have a job that for the most part prevents me from posting during the workday.

Speaking of which I am still there so this is just a "I'm watching and will be around later."

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 04:45 PM

OMG, how many times do we have to go through this?
You can, and you have argued that we didn't know whom people were yesterDay.
However even with the lack of knowledge - why would you do such a thing?
You are faced with voting for two people, one you think is a wolf and the other you think is a cobbler.
Why, would you split your votes - in favor of the one whom you thought was a wolf?
Well, one doesn't exactly know who is what on Day1, right? So voting for two people you suspect the most furthers the chances that one of them gets lynched in comparison to other candidates. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.I was not there on the deadline. I couldn't watch who gets lynched in the end to choose from the two only one. So then one tries to bring up those one thinks are the most suspicious to him - and in this game we have a chance to vote for two.

And it's not in favour of either of them. Both votes are valid and carry as much weight!

Okay, my last chance of trying to understand you: there was indeed a 1/17 chance I might be Pippin to be sure. Is that what you're after? Funnily you haven't mentioned that possibility yourself... it would have been much easier if you had mentioned it right away - and it would have been quite natural for you to say it out plainly if that was what you meant. It would have saved us from a lot of time spent on this unnecessary argument.

Are you possibly getting hints or orders from somewhere all the time and just don't get what they say, like "press on with his vote-case, it's a good one" - and you didn't realise it was the speculation of myself not knowing whether I'm Pippin or not which could be pressed about?

But to be honest, I didn't think about that back then. A chance of 1/17 is as good as nothing in a situation I was not too sure about either of my candidates. They were the ones I suspected, not the ones I knew were this or that. I was just wishing to have one of them lynched as I thought that would be good.

Or maybe we just have a total communication breakdown here? That might be a reasonable solution to this.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 04:47 PM

I'm more concerned still about Kuru and Fea's 4 bonus votes - all I can say about it right now is she is fishing for a reaction maybe?

Yes. What's up with those votes, Fea dear? I was going to say something when I cross-posted, but I had to be moving quickly... and I'd hoped you'd explicate with a string of one-liner posts. Or something. But this is right out of the blue! The Kuru-suspicion not so much... but the bonus votes? Typically impulsive, maybe... or cobblery-deviant? I don't know...

Nogrod, if you're looking for preferences regarding your bonus-vote splurge, between Fea, Kuru, and Greenie, I'm going to have to go contra-Kentian and say I'd most prefer you went Greenie. It's no more than slight feeling, but she's the only one of the three that even strikes me as queasy. Kuru is flat out neutral. Perhaps he'd be easier to peg if I hadn't defended him against Cobblerism, but as it is I can't push myself off the fence either way on him just yet.

As for Fea, well... I was thinking she was innocent to me (insofar as Fea ever is), but that's admittedly on rather less posting than one normally manages to get a feel off of, and that bonus vote thing is throwing a wrench into things. I'm really not sure where to put her... so as far as that goes, I would be inclined to leave her be for the day.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 04:50 PM

I will not vote for Greenie today, if you want to that's your choice. If you want to push your bonus votes on her, I will make a necessary move to see she is not lynched.If you are her packmate I understand. If not, then remember that I warned you about her.

But as I'm not able to overvote you I'll leave her be toDay.

Oh my, you make this hard.

Justr straightening off this one as well as it seems to come up every now and then
considering he said early in the day we harped about how we "really" have to lynch someone.Many early posts are written "in character" as you know... but that happily soon wanes away - unless it's an in-character game where it is prerogative to write IC.

I'm more concerned still about Kuru and Fea's 4 bonus votes - all I can say about it right now is she is fishing for a reaction maybe?
My problems as well. And just as I felt I was ready to decide I see that I wawer. :confused:

EDIT: X'd with Form... and reconsidering...

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 05:08 PM

Hey I'm here and reading. Maybe I'll have something to post about after that. We'll see.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 05:09 PM

Btw. the number of "no-shows" starts to be unbearable and is unusually high. If they are wolves that's plain unfair hiding there in the mass-shadows where you can't pick one from another - and if they are ordos that's plain unfair as well letting the baddies roam with their influence. With something like half of the people playing it's hard to say this is a game.

I thought of giving someone a host of votes now and go to sleep and then wake up to see what to do in the morning, but now I think I need to just go to sleep. I'm having six votes right now and am pretty puzzled about a number of things which I should think a little while I try to get some sleep.

I'm still an optimist, you see? :)

And I'm willing to use a host of votes if it looks like it's needed - or if I have a chance for it... *the little pessimist comes forward*

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 05:18 PM

If you are her packmate I understand. If not, then remember that I warned you about her.
-Nogrod
Noted. My point is not to disagree with you about this...
Yes Kent, she looks perfcectly reasonable - and that's the whole point. A good wolf who plays the "under-radar" -style wishes to do just that: post only once or twice aDay and do not suspect too many people so that no-one feels bad with you; then come up with a suspicion you can back with an argument of any sorts, preferably something that follows the general prejudices flying around but still is something of your own (that's easier you could imagine and Greenie has made it two times now), then vanish to the shadows. She is dangerous, mind you.
I expect you to know Greenie's style better than me, and in principle what you say about wolf-behavior makes sense - how they might want to stay under the radar. But wolves can't be 'over the radar?' Wolves can't talk our ears off and throw suspicion all over the place?

I'm just saying to consider situations, maybe someone is under the radar as a wolf ploy, but maybe someone posts little because there's no time? Maybe in the rush to vote you don't have the time to look at all the evidence and refine this wonderfully long post of suspicions. What I am saying is try to consider a person's situation, instead of automatically assuming that if someone only posts once or twice a day they must be a wolf because they want to stay under the radar.

If it gives you any comfort, I am willing to do the same for you today, as I said I would for Greenie. I don't think you are particularly suspicious, and I have no doubt you will be here participating. But I think Greenie is an easy target, and could get ganged up on by people who can be here for the deadline and can read through everything.

Lets not just look at the vote, but something else she said just looks very innocent:
I have to add to this discussion about granting people a free pass on Day 1 for different reasons. I think it's a sort of nice courtesy not to lynch people on Day 1 in their first game - or in their first game in a very long while - unless there is hard evidence against them. Deciding not to lynch somebody because that said person is enjoyable to play with is a trifle more complicated, since the person voted for instead easily gets a feeling that s/he is not as enjoyable to play with as someone else. And that, in my opinion, is one step away from fair play. After all, this game shouldn't be about lynching those you know little and keeping alive those you know and like best, but instead about letting everyone play and treating everyone fairly regardless of whether they are special favourites of yours or not.
I could be fooled by a charm, but this looks honest and innocent.

x'ed with Gwath and Nogrod

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 06:04 PM

I'm beginning to think it is indeed a communication breakdown.

Lariren Shadow

04-15-2009, 06:09 PM

I'm here, sorry. I am also noting what our wonderful benevolent mod said about mentioning RL.

As for what I'm thinking about:

I am also worried about the extra votes as well as the vampire character(which I was seeing those references and thinking "there is no vampire roll...oh there is there it is"). Basically the wolves/vampire can save their extra votes for the end as well as the vampire stealing extra votes from someone else. That...just seems like a really good way for the wolves/vampire to either win the game or take out the Seer.

Who I don't like at the moment:
Kent: I'm not sure if it's his style but it seems suspicious to me. I can see where his points can be coming from, but to me he seems way too defensive right now. Whether that is being a newbie wolf or what but I don't like it.

Fea's vote worries me as well. I don't know what to make of it and someone earlier brought up that the odds of Fea being innocent in this game are, well, low. I also wish she could post more and maybe that's where a lot of my worry suspicion is coming from but I understand the not posting. I just don't like it.

And Brinn, who I've been wavering about all Day reading through the posts. She seemed guilty when explaining her vote, but the innocent later and then, I reread, and didn't like anything that I saw.

Most people I have no idea about. I don't really see or like the whole seeing Greenie as a wolf. Maybe its just because I don't see it or maybe it's because, well, its on a sort of hunch that someone else jumped right on.

However, since I know Nog did sort of start the whole thing, reading him toDay he seems rather innocent sounding. So maybe he's right, but I don't like the reasoning behind it at all.

As for the rest of the players, I really have no idea. I really have a big no feel on everyone.

For the wolf not showing up idea: I'm...not sure. I think that it could be a good strategy, however it could not be good to think that. Then it becomes easy to discount the rest of the people and it also becomes an easy way for wolves to hide.

Edit: x-posted with Izzy.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 07:07 PM

Good morning, everyone!

Being rather narcissistic in regards to this game, my first reads tend to focus on mentions of my name, so:

I'll start with my two cents on Day1 voting.

First I have to say I do dislike both the votes of Nilp and Form. Everyone is granted to like or dislike Day1's as much as they wish, but wrapping one's vote into a joke-paper is plain indecent and cowardish. We are left totally clueless about their votes but they can join the speculation over the other votes - and that is intentional. Very suspicious to me.Bite me. :p

Will do a more thorough read now over breakfast. Although I must say one of my suspects did not take the bait. :( The other did, though. So fun! I love this game sooo much! :D

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 07:13 PM

I feel it incumbant to point out that we are in a rather risky situation even beyond what Nogrod has lined out already, which I think he is at least partially right about.

Due to Alonariel's continued absence we are in grave danger of losing two tonight. The likelyhood of the villagers coming out ahead in something like that are, not to put too fine a point on it, rather remote.

I'm not sure there is much that can or should be done about this but I did want to make sure that more than just me were aware of this.

I hope she turns up soon.

More analysis soon.

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 08:15 PM

These are just my responses from when I was reading. There's not a ton of substance, I'm afraid.

Well, obviously Agan was not the seer. If Kuru is not a wolf, the wolves would have known this, so this wouldn't be the reason that they killed her, as she would have just been an ordo (or a non-seer gifted).

I really don't understand what you're saying here. Is it important?

I just realised it when Fea finally posted something...

Now in a game organised by the phantom, what do you think are the odds that Fea is not a baddie? Zero. What are the chances she is Thuringwethil? I'd say 75%. :rolleyes:

And what she said gives one reason to believe that it is so.

I presume you don't intend for us to take this argument very seriously? Shouldn't there be a winkey-smiley there or something?

Don't worry, I got ya, I think it was just the wording and my own paranoia. Is it natural to think everyone is after you and around every corner your killer awaits?

When I first started playing, I was so paranoid that I had trouble eating at the cafeteria...so many potential enemies.

One thing about style once more. Why do you say grasping it "a tad too hard"? What was "too hard" there? Giving a reason and a vote? Now that kind of talk is called rhetorics which is the most convenient tool for those who know what they are doing.

I should point out that rhetoric is simply a tool, and as such can be used with equal ease for good or bad. It should not, on its own, be used as a pejorative term - what matters is the truth or falsehood conveyed. Besides, rhetoric (i.e. speaking persuasively) is ultimately what Werewolf is all about.

The original Declaration of Independence, I think people must get a hold of (I should say a copy of the original) because there are spaces and indications of what words should be emphasized and where people should take their breaths/pauses when reading it. Even funnier, Family Guy makes a point of this with the "Right to bear arms," as the framers discuss in the 'editting' process whether that was "clear enough."

That's my favorite part of the Declaration of Independence, too. ;):D

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 08:19 PM

Yes. What's up with those votes, Fea dear? I was going to say something when I cross-posted, but I had to be moving quickly... and I'd hoped you'd explicate with a string of one-liner posts. Or something. But this is right out of the blue! The Kuru-suspicion not so much... but the bonus votes? Typically impulsive, maybe... or cobblery-deviant? I don't know...

Attempt to get other players to start using their bonus votes, perhaps?

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 08:24 PM

Oh my! It IS quiet this evening...

Only one thought, at the moment: will Alonariel be modfired, or will the phantom show mercy, since he knew of these computer troubles? Not that it should really be mattering to our voting one way or another, but it does put a different light on the situation.

Hmmm... not really any closer to deciding about voting... let's see what my list of examined people looks like now that I add Nog's Top 3 Choices. Bear in mind I'm crudely rounding into three groups. Really, everyone should be in the middle...

Guilty:
Greenie--strictly on the basis of quicksand feeling

Unsure:
Brinn
Kent
Fea--after her weird vote thing.
Kuru--not so much unsure as I completely don't know. He's under my radar.

Not Guilty:
Nogrod
(Fea--before her weird vote thing)

So that's only 6 people in the village... Shasta and Izzy look just as guilty as Greenie to me, but all three of them really haven't posted enough (and I agree with Nog that this can be a potential black mark). Lari is perhaps worse, post-wise, but not raising any alarms... Let's see... that makes... 9 people? Plus me, 10. That leaves 3 (*actually had to go look it up...*): Nilp, Sally, and Gwath--all of whom are COMPLETELY below my radar. This disturbs me; none of those three names should be below my radar.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2009, 08:24 PM

This is a random vote between the three people I've suspected today, purely so I don't get modfired. I have to rush off.

++Formendacil

Edit: I don't have any idea why I keep mixing up Formendacil and Kuruharan, but I do. Sorry.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 08:27 PM

Okay, so waiting for my slow Internet to load, I realised I messed up on my numbers... there's not 13 of us, there are 15, and while I missed Alonariel, I also completely missed Firefoot. Although Firefoot has always been good at keeping a low profile, the sheer number of players do so this game is rather distressing.

EDIT: x-posted with Shasta's vote for me.

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 08:28 PM

I would just like to point out however about Nogrod's split vote. What I questioned was why? considering he said early in the day we harped about how we "really" have to lynch someone. But I do recall in the Day -1, or somewhere in the records, Nogrod saying it would be interesting to divide your votes and seemed fascinated to try it. That doesn't mean he can't be a wolf and still do it, but I'm not sure we should lynch him based on the grounds that he was the only one to split his vote.

It is possible that Nogrod simply wanted to split his vote for novelty's sake. Otherwise it doesn't make much sense.

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 08:31 PM

Well, I've got to go read Jonathan Strange and Mr. Norrell, but I'll come back and vote in a bit. At this point, nobody is standing out to me as grossly suspicious, I'm very sorry to say. I hate feeling like I have to come up with a vote at the last minute when I don't suspect anyone yet. We'll see.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 08:31 PM

When I first started playing, I was so paranoid that I had trouble eating at the cafeteria...so many potential enemies.Which is why I prefer my approach to the game. So much less stressing, so much more fun. :D

But anyway, nice catch there Gwath (some other point in the same post). Actually, during my more thorough perusal of the thread, only you and Kent stand out as particularly enlightening in an innocent way.

There are other ways of enlightening, however--darker ones. ;) More on that later.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 08:34 PM

Due to Alonariel's continued absence we are in grave danger of losing two tonight. The likelyhood of the villagers coming out ahead in something like that are, not to put too fine a point on it, rather remote.
Indeed. Where is Alonariel? I would've expected her to be here by now. Any idea what's going on, Lari or Fea? There's still a little under three hours, but nevertheless it's a bit worrisome.

I'm not as worried about Lari or Shasta since they have shown up, though I hope they remember to return and vote in time. Were there any other non-voters? I don't think so...

Thoughts:

Nogrod is acting like his typical self. Often he does get lynched because he is so vocal. Even if I disagree with him on things or find some statements rather bold, I know better than to suspect and vote him without further thought. Too often I help get Noggie get lynched as an innocent for that reason. He's one I always want to watch since he can be a clever wolf, but right now I don't see anything particularly suspicious about him.

I'm not sure what to think of Fea's vote. She tends to make bold moves like that regardless of role it seems. It's not really that she voted Noggie or used her bonus votes that makes me wary, but that she gave him five votes without explanation. Maybe she said she suspected him earlier in the Day and I've forgotten, but it seems like that vote came out of nowhere.

Some other thoughts: I'm liking Greenie right now. Formy makes me slightly uneasy for some unknown reason. I will probably go back and take a look at the bandwaggoners of yesterDay. Obviously not all of them are evil and it's easy for innocents to get caught in a bandwagon early in the game. But I really wouldn't be surprised if at least one was a baddie; after all it's easy for a wolf to hide in a bandwagon and pretend to be a misguided innocent. I haven't really given much thought to who I will vote for, though I think I might try voting a bit earlier toDay. I never mean to wait until the last minute, but it seems I always do. :rolleyes:

EDIT: X-ed since #351

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 08:36 PM

I'm still working on my big analysis post...but am I the only one who finds Shasta's vote/explaination a little troubling?

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 08:39 PM

Nogrod is acting like his typical self. Often he does get lynched because he is so vocal.

This is a very important point to keep in mind, everybody. I've experienced the same thing several times: Nogrod's style will rub me the wrong way, we argue, and then we both get lynched.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 08:49 PM

I won't be voting for Nog toDay. Whether due to accident or purpose, there seems to of been a lack of understanding on both our parts?

Kent, I've no reason to.

Form, the same as above.

Pretty much no read on:
Shasta, Brin, Lari, Alonariel

I don't see what the issue is/was with Kuru and Green.

o.O about Fea. Vote with nothing added to it?

I'm tempted to vote for Sally more than Gwath.

Firefoot
Nilp looks a shade less than normal. Due to the outlaw on self-voting I think.

Oh boy, this is really ... frustrating when for the majority of the players.. is "no comment". o.O

X'd since Gwath's #357

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 08:54 PM

Other than perhaps it looks pretty out of nowhere, and .... random?
I know he mentioned/pointed at Form earlier, but it didn't seem to lead up to a vote.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 08:56 PM

I'm still working on my big analysis post...but am I the only one who finds Shasta's vote/explaination a little troubling?

Going fishing?

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 09:09 PM

There is always fishing here, Kent. xD

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 09:12 PM

There is always fishing here, Kent. xD

hehe :D

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 09:19 PM

I'm still working on my big analysis post...but am I the only one who finds Shasta's vote/explaination a little troubling?

Heh. Well, obviously I'm a little perturbed by it. Not that I think you can expect anything else from me, given the situation.

But it does seem a little bit odd... Yes, Shasta has felt a bit uneasy about me today, but it was not a clear situation in the slightest. He defended me in the following post:

I almost decided to post why I've been so gone recently, but I decided that's better left to the admin thread. I'll go there after I'm done with this post. :rolleyes:

{SNIP}
Now, Nogrod. You're saying that the thing that makes you the most suspicious of Form is that he doesn't see the same thing Brinn does? How on earth does that make sense? Explain it to me, would you?

Granted, he's not exonerating me, but he seems to have understood where I was coming from, and on the amount of tangible evidence offered (and especially given Nog's own suspicions of Greenie, I would have expected him to vote that way, with the higher chances it held (holds?) of seeing effect.

On the other hand, it could be that Shasta went for me rather than Greenie in order to AVOID looking like a wolf jumping on a suggestion of a bandwaggon--a situation too reminiscent of Nienna's death yesterday. This could be the case if he's a wolf or an ordo.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 09:28 PM

Cos lists are rather lovely. (Numbers in parentheses are post #s where I drew my conclusion.)

Probably Guilty (My main suspects.)
Kuruharan (NIGHT kill! + 311 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593137&postcount=311))
Brinniel (275 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593063&postcount=275&highlight=no%20trail%20kill))
Firefoot (290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593096&postcount=290&highlight=obviously))

Somewhat Worrying (Thinking innocent, but with a soupçon of . . . suspicion. :D )
Formendacil (315 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593144&postcount=315&highlight=converted))
Nogrod (299 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593113&postcount=299) & 324 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593160&postcount=324&highlight=mind%2Dtrap))
Feanor of the Peredhil (292 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593103&postcount=292&highlight=squeaky%20clean))

Must Watch (Being quite hard to read for now.)
Alonariel
Lariren Shadow
satansaloser2005
Isabellkya

Reassuring (Cos I like the way they think.)
Kent2010 (300 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593114&postcount=300&highlight=Agan%27s%20dead))
Shatanis Althreduin (321 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593153&postcount=321) & 323 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593158&postcount=323))
Gwathagor (351 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593212&postcount=351&highlight=important))

Slacker (Having so much fun with this game.)
Nilpaurion Felagund

~*~*~*~

I'm already forming possible Baddie interactions manifesting themselves during the DAY, and all I'm lacking is that one clue.

Most likely I'll vote for Kuru, and use my bonus votes while I'm at it, too.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 09:41 PM

There, lots of reading to do.

Here are the things that stand out to me.

As I have read over the posts I have become a bit troubled by Brinniel, Firefoot and Kent.

Except for her last post, Brinniel spent the entire Day in self-justification and not really helping much in quest of wolves.

I find this rather suspicious.

For whatever reasons, which might be good ones, Firefoot has been unusually silent. She made some disturbing references to the Seer yesterday which is not really something an ordo wants to be doing. Her vote for me yesterday also seemed to come rather out of the blue.

ToDay she said at the beginning she wouldn't be around much (fair enough) and ultimately has come down hard on Nogrod.

My suspicious about her, I admit are primarily focused around her talk about the Seer yesterday.

Kent bothers me for a couple of reasons. The first is, as Firefoot mentioned, he seems so defensive about his status as a newbie, as if he is using it as a shield to protect himself from worse. He is the one who is always bringing it up. He is also a bit scattershot in his approach to things. He will say things and then back off of them.

The most troubling example of this is in post 328 where he really went out in attacking Form. I find his tone in this post to be troubling and almost underhanded in a way...especially when after making all these attacks on Form he backs away from them immediately.

I find this very disturbing.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 09:44 PM

I'm still working on my big analysis post...but am I the only one who finds Shasta's vote/explaination a little troubling?
I don't find it troubling. Shasta has to keep leaving the pub to go off and work on theatre productions and has probably spent more time outside The Eagle and the Child than in. A bit frustrating, but I also understand it can't be helped...I go to school with a lot of theatre students and know they have crazy schedules. A semi-random vote is better than no vote at all which would mean modfire. I don't mind his vote toDay so long as he doesn't continue to make random votes throughout the entire game.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 09:46 PM

Oh, darn you, Kuru. You just had to go out and make a life-saving post. :p

(Well, it means I'm finding you sensible and innocent-minded. I'm holding my fire at you, for now.)

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 09:54 PM

Okay, my energy is starting to flag. I'm off to bed in a bit, so let's look over my list again...

Guilty:
Greenie
Shasta
Izzy

Unsure:
Brinn
Kent
Fea
Kuru
Sally
Gwath
Alonariel
Firefoot

Not Guilty:
Nogrod
Nilp

This isn't much of a selection... My "Guilty" list is completely in reference to everyone else who ISN'T apparently guilty.

And because this post was made while I was interrupted by a 15 minute phonecall, I'll check the thread before posting something red.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 09:55 PM

I thought Nogrod deserved a little extra attention because he is on the chop right now.

In spite of everything, including his odd split vote thingy yesterday and his misguided notions about me I believe (at least for the present) that he is innocent and is trying to come up with suggestions and ideas about how to best help the village...I don't agree with all those ideas (particularly the ones that involve lynching me) but they do not seem right now to bear the stamp of werewolfery. It is a lot safer for wolves to be seconding other people's ideas rather than bearing the brunt of offering ideas themselves, and people who are doing the seconding or at least gave me the impression of doing the seconding are the ones that I tried to focus on and Nogrod does not fit that bill.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 10:00 PM

I don't find it troubling. Shasta has to keep leaving the pub to go off and work on theatre productions and has probably spent more time outside The Eagle and the Child than in. A bit frustrating, but I also understand it can't be helped...I go to school with a lot of theatre students and know they have crazy schedules. A semi-random vote is better than no vote at all which would mean modfire. I don't mind his vote toDay so long as he doesn't continue to make random votes throughout the entire game.

-emphasis mine

See, that word there would be the crux of the matter. Inactivity, I can understand--it is true that drama students have crazy schedules. Inability, consequently to focus on things and analyse them, that I can also understand.

But even so... no vote is truly random--as you say. A semi-random vote is exactly the right way of putting it. But what's the semi-part? There is a reason, undoubtedly, for lighting on me as the recipient of the vote, and this reason is not random. It may be trivial... but it's not random.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:01 PM

Woo finally...now I can actually get defensive. :)

The first is, as Firefoot mentioned, he seems so defensive about his status as a newbie, as if he is using it as a shield to protect himself from worse. He is the one who is always bringing it up.
-Kuru
It's hard not to when you are reminded about your status everywhere you turn...

Fair enough... I am mollified, I guess, insofar as I don't know you, so I can't distinguish between newbie covering (especially since, were that so, you could assisted by PMing with the other Wolves)
-Formendacil

The people I like at the moment are Form (he's nice to me) and Kent (he's either a good newbie or receives advice via PM. I'm inclined to think the former, given how he reacted to Kuru's accusations of me).
-Agan

After this was when I first mentioned my newbie status
But just want to say...I doubt there are any poor intentions, becase I have received a lot of 'hellos' and I've loved my welcome here, but it does come off as a little degrading saying I'm either an innocent newbie or I am receiving constant PM instruction.
My slight frustration, but that was a mix-up of opinion and intention and cleaned up:
It may also just be grasping at straws--a newbie making a mistake would be probably the one certain thing to look for in analysing Day 1 prior to the completion of Day 1.

Of course, it's entirely possible you're innocent but just not guilty-looking enough to come across that way. It's a problem we've all had, once or twice, I'm sure.
-Formendacil

And today...
If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.
-Brinn

I responded in 304. Fea responded to my response later. And in 312 I consided the matter closed:
Ok, now I get your logic. I disagree, but I understand the reasons, and I could continue to argue about this in circles, but I will just say...for myself, just know I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.

Greenie adds her tidbit.
I have to add to this discussion about granting people a free pass on Day 1 for different reasons. I think it's a sort of nice courtesy not to lynch people on Day 1 in their first game - or in their first game in a very long while - unless there is hard evidence against them. Deciding not to lynch somebody because that said person is enjoyable to play with is a trifle more complicated, since the person voted for instead easily gets a feeling that s/he is not as enjoyable to play with as someone else. And that, in my opinion, is one step away from fair play. After all, this game shouldn't be about lynching those you know little and keeping alive those you know and like best, but instead about letting everyone play and treating everyone fairly regardless of whether they are special favourites of yours or not.

Firefoot thinks that I'm being too defensive about it.
My other thought has been that Kent has seemed... a little obsessed... with his newbie status, wanting to be treated fairly and all that... but if he was a wolf I think I'd expect him to play it up differently.

I respond to that.
Oh hopefully not sounding obsessed, I guess that's better than ungrateful. I really don't want to sound ungrateful for the courtesy, but playing "fair" just wasn't something I was expecting in werewolf.

And Formendacil later...
To be fair, I think I would also be the sort of person to harp on about being a newbie in a game like this if I were to jump in right now--there's a lot of history between some of the players here.

So, how have I used my "newbie" status as a shield? It looks more like people are using it as a crutch to not vote for me and give a reason to vote for everyone else. I have not once initiated the "newbie defense" and only responded to it when asked or when I felt necessary because someone else brought it up. ;)

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 10:04 PM

So, how have I used my "newbie" status as a shield? It looks more like people are using it as a crutch to not vote for me and give a reason to vote for everyone else.

Which is a pretty lovely shield, don't you think?

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 10:05 PM

Well, even if I stick around because the posts are flying, a vote needs to be made, and bed really does look good in the reflection on the computer screen...

++ A Little Green

Albeit, I have a few misgivings because it's a tenuous feeling at best, but she's as far up my suspicion list as anyone is, and if it spurs Nog's one-man-bandwaggon in that direction rather than Fea's or Kuru's--well, that sits closest to my intuitions this evening.

Lariren Shadow

04-15-2009, 10:05 PM

All right I know I need to vote now so I don't forget. I'm going with

++KENT

He is the one I think is most guilty.

Edit: x-posted since 374.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:10 PM

Which is a pretty lovely shield, don't you think?

Only for those who decide to use me as a crutch to have an excuse to vote for someone else.

Formendacil

04-15-2009, 10:15 PM

Only for those who decide to use me as a crutch to have an excuse to vote for someone else.

I'm going to be a bit dafter for a moment than I normally prefer to be, and say I don't get what you're saying here. If I understand your argument aright, you seem to be saying it's a bad thing that people don't vote for you--they want to, but they don't.

I'm not exactly sure how this is a good thing for THEM and not for you. It is, after all, the life of Kent2010 that is NOT going to die as a result.

Unless you're the cobbler, there's no reason you'd want to be voted for, that I can perceive. If you're innocent, you wouldn't want votes--that would mean the village wasn't focusing on the Wolves. And if you're a wolf you wouldn't want the votes, because, well, you're a wolf--you don't plan on getting lynched, but getting maximum number of villagers killed.

Maybe you're just missing a necessary negative condition somewhere, or else I'm just misreading you (I should be abed), but as it stands, your argument is making no sense to me--which has not been the norm the past couple Days.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 10:18 PM

Well, this certainly is getting even more interesting.

All right, I'll be out with it: Kent is on my secret suspicion list. I've been drawing inferences on possible interactions, and whether I go Kuru - Firefoot or Nogrod - Form he's more often than not one of the links in the chain.

Not to mention that my other (secret) interpretation of the NIGHT kill points to him.

But coming out of the blue can be rather suspicious. (Oooh...) I'll raise the relevant posts.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:21 PM

I'm going to be a bit dafter for a moment than I normally prefer to be, and say I don't get what you're saying here. If I understand your argument aright, you seem to be saying it's a bad thing that people don't vote for you--they want to, but they don't.
-Formendacil
I'm saying I'm not hiding behind my status, but I think others might use my status to hide behind it. By either looking nice in "I can't lynch Kent today, he's a newbie" or by using the excuse itself to give a reason to not vote for me..."Oh that's just Kent making a newbie mistake."

And maybe the wolves feel I will be an easy target later in the game to go after? I might get a courtesy pass the first couple days, but by that 3rd or 4th day I imagine it's a lot easier for wolves to convince everyone to vote out the newbie.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 10:21 PM

Okay, so I went back and looked at some voters from yesterDay I was worried about.

Izzy may have voted Nienna late, but she did suspect her before the bandwagon started up. That earlier suspicion gives reasoning behind her vote; she didn't just vote for her out of the blue. Which makes her look more innocent than not.

Gwath was very eager to hop on the bandwagon with this post:

You're right - Nienna does look rather bad in light of that sequence of posts, like she's fishing for a bandwagon almost. She might just be an innocent who didn't have any better idea, but this seems a far more substantial case than any others that have been made toDay. I think I'll be voting Nienna.

It looks bad, but what makes me hesitant to suspect him is that I believe an innocent Gwath has eagerly hopped on bandwagons in past games. So this isn't exactly unusual behaviour from him.

Sally and Firefoot look the worst to me.

Here's what Sally said:

I think I'll look over Nienna's posts real quick and see what the fuss is about. It's possible I forgot to actually....you know....read her post when I went through the thread. I'm such a silly hobbit.
I decided that yeah, Nienna does have some furry potential. And I know she's blinking brilliant as a wolf, so I'd hate to give her a free pass for too long and then wind up dead.
Sally seemed to really quickly come to the conclusion that Nienna was evil. There's something about the tone of these posts that feels just wrong and suggests perhaps she doesn't have good intentions.

Sally has been unusually quiet in this game...I only just realised she hasn't shown up yet toDay. That may speak in her favour since she tends to be a loud wolf. But then again there's a good chance her absence is due to RL and when someone's missing because of RL, it really doesn't tell anything about what their role may be.

Firefoot voted for Kuru with this reasoning:
It strikes me as really interesting that Agan would want to throw a bonus vote out there already - it seems like a rather unfounded move, given the amount of material we have to go on. Hmmm... unless he's the seer... Kuru would be a fairly logical choice as a first night dream, he's well known enough. And that would explain why Agan came out swinging at him.

I don't feel too bad pointing this out if it's true, because the wolves would no doubt have picked up on it already.
I find this rather weird. If you think someone to be the seer there's no good reason to state it publicly. Maybe the wolves already picked up on it, but maybe not and you just gave it away. The fact that she feels the need to defend her statement suggesting that Agan may be the seer in that same post is even more concerning.

Though it's also possible this was a ploy and Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer when she really just believed her to be an ordo so that they would Night kill her. This scenario has occurred before. But I've never played with Firefoot before, so I don't know if she is the type of player to come up with such a ploy.

EDIT: X-ed since #372

Lariren Shadow

04-15-2009, 10:26 PM

Vote count as of now:
Greenie -->Nog
Fea(4) -->Nog*
Shasta -->Form
Form -->Grennie
Lari -->Kent

*Is Fea's vote four votes or five? I got confused when it was said that Nog had five votes because I thought Fea voted five times but then saw that Greenie had voted Nog too...bah maybe I'm just confused.

Anyway so if Fea counts as five then:
Nog 6, Form, Greenie, and Kent 1

If Fea 4 then:
Nog 5, Form, Greenie, and Kent 1

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 10:28 PM

Kent bothers me for a couple of reasons. The first is, as Firefoot mentioned, he seems so defensive about his status as a newbie, as if he is using it as a shield to protect himself from worse.

Kent has NOT been using his newbie-status as a shield. You must have misread...all of his posts.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 10:29 PM

*Is Fea's vote four votes or five? I got confused when it was said that Nog had five votes because I thought Fea voted five times but then saw that Greenie had voted Nog too...bah maybe I'm just confused.
It should count as five. One for writing down the name which is your regular vote, plus the four bonus votes.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 10:30 PM

While I was rereading the Day and completely skipping over posts I'd already commented on, some things caught my eye.

I suppose it comes down to an argument of semantics, yet it still sent a flag up.

Kuru does a post analysis/recap of Sally - Her #358 says she has no idea who to vote for yet.
In actuality she said she had no idea who she'd like to kill yet.

Which yes, voting for someone is voting for them to die. Yet, most if not always people refer to it as voting, rather than killing. It just seemed an off statement/phrasing to me.

I'm a bit confused to Firefoot's #290.
Well, obviously Agan was not the seer. If Kuru is not a wolf, the wolves would have known this, so this wouldn't be the reason that they killed her, as she would have just been an ordo (or a non-seer gifted). If Kuru was a wolf, though, and Agan was the seer, this wouldn't really make sense either since then we'd all know Kuru was a wolf because we'd know Agan was the seer. Unless they just wanted to limit the chance that she'd dream of another wolf... so that begs the question, even though Agan wasn't the seer (say she had a really lucky guess and the wolves thought she was), is Kuru a wolf anyway?

Or were the wolves not even thinking about the seer and just decided that Agan was too much of a liability?

And as for what I was thinking... a potential seer lead seemed like a really good Day 1 reason to vote Kuru. And if Agan actually had been the seer, I think the wolves would have guessed it... that's a little bit too lucky, to just pick one person basically off the bat, and then be so confident as to put two votes on him, and get it right.

Otherwise my vote would have been more or less random...

And just so you all know, I probably won't be around much toDay. Wednesdays are busy busy busy.

It seems like you are saying that the main reason you voted for Kuru was because of a potential seer lead on him via Agan. Yet, if I remember correctly you outed it was a possible seer lead yesterDay. So why would you do that, if you thought she was the Seer. It doesn't look very innocent of you.

I don't think I answered your question in #298 Gwath. No, I was looking at it purely in regards to Nienna. Nog made a post about his suspicions towards her, then the next two posts involve both you and sally agreeing with it. When, there had been no implication from either of you before that - that you found something wrong with Nienna. I was merely stating that out of the Nienna voters - both of yours looked the most bandwagonish.

Kent why won't you vote for Greenie toDay, and why would you "make a necessary move to see she is not lynched", if Nog put his bonus votes on her?

X'd since Form's #372.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 10:30 PM

I do agree with Kent on one thing, at least. I find the Greenie thing to be rather suspect suspicion. I may be missing something but for now at least I just don't see it.

I am also concerned about Gwath and Sally, mostly because they seem in large measure to have slipped underneath almost everyone's radar...and that bothers me.

They were part of the Niennawagon yesterday, Sally in particular was rather short on explaination (see her post 266).

X-ed with everything past 382

Lariren Shadow

04-15-2009, 10:32 PM

It should count as five. One for writing down the name which is your regular vote, plus the four bonus votes.

Thanks:D

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 10:34 PM

Kent has NOT been using his newbie-status as a shield. You must have misread...all of his posts.

If that is your impression of his behavior, that is obviously up to you.

Its an impression that I don't agree with.

Newness isn't a fault and in my mind it isn't something to be defensive about as to my mind Kent consistantly has been. It seems to me that he defends himself from it so as to keep it in people's minds so that his newness will be the primary thing that people associate with him.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 10:39 PM

Hmm...I'm not seriously concerned about anyone on the chopping block. Out of all of them, Formy is probably the most suspicious, but my suspicion of him is really not a strong one and is based on a slightly uneasy feeling. Certainly not enough of a reason for me to vote him. And I may have voted to save someone yesterDay, but there's really no one here that I really feel the need to save toDay. Day One is over, so no more free passes.

I don't like to spread out the votes usually, but I may just vote Sally or Firefoot anyway since they are my current suspects and I don't really like any of the other choices.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:39 PM

Kent why won't you vote for Greenie toDay, and why would you "make a necessary move to see she is not lynched", if Nog put his bonus votes on her?
-Isabellyka

Post 346 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593193&postcount=346) is the full explanation...

But basically I thought there was the possibility of her getting ganged up on at the deadline. As she would not be here to defend herself, and there was growing suspicion about her - suspicion that doesn't seem to be that big of a deal.

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:42 PM

Newness isn't a fault and in my mind it isn't something to be defensive about as to my mind Kent consistantly has been. It seems to me that he defends himself from it so as to keep it in people's minds so that his newness will be the primary thing that people associate with him.
-Kuru
But who is the one who is doing the "constant" reminding?

Others have mentioned my newbieness more times than myself and long before I ever decided I needed to respond to it.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 10:45 PM

But who is the one who is doing the "constant" reminding?

Others have mentioned my newbieness more times than myself and long before I ever decided I needed to respond to it.

But you are doing it right now. :rolleyes:

Anyway, the vote I am most comfortable with today is for Firefoot as her behavior over yesterDay and toDay has been the most consistantly creepy...although at the moment I am torn because Kent is so uptight.

Firefoot

04-15-2009, 10:45 PM

Okay, I'm taking a lot of flak for the seer comment I made yesterday... fair enough.

But if I was a wolf, why would I bother making such a comment...? I'm not sure what point that would serve either, unless you all are just accusing me of plain sloppiness. That would be a reason that my post would make me seem wolfish to you... but no one's mentioned that. So it must seem odd on other grounds. You say an ordo wouldn't expose the seer like that... well, if I was a wolf, and Kuru was also a wolf, and Agan got Kuru lynched, I would take out Agan that night in case she was the seer. Just saying. I didn't feel like I was exposing anything.

Or it could be a very clever bluff.

Or I'm the cobbler.

But none of those things are true. And I don't have anything else to say about that. I've already explained myself, and if you don't like it, then you don't like it. Fine.

Anyway... sorry I didn't get my vote in earlier like I announced - the internet went down... but I'm back so it's okay. I've read all the posts, but don't have time to go through them in detail, and nothing in particular has stuck out to me, so I'm just going to go with my earlier plan:

++Nogrod

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 10:47 PM

Hah! I got in time...

And well, it looks like I suspect each and everyone of you. :confused:

I see why some have brought forwards Sally and Firefoot. I might be tempted to try either but it just feels we're digging an easy way out there.

Needs to give it one more thought.

EDIT: X'd with Firefoot... oops!

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:47 PM

++Kuru(+5)

I hope others will see how Kuru blew up the entire newbie situation. In post 312 I considered the matter closed and told Fea (and Brinn before) I understand the logic now. It wasn't until Firefoot said I looked a little obsessive and Kuru ran with off it that this then become exagerrated.

crossed with Firefoot crap I don't want Nogrod lynched.

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 10:50 PM

I hope others will see how Kuru blew up the entire newbie situation. In post 312 I considered the matter closed and told Fea (and Brinn before) I understand the logic now. It wasn't until Firefoot said I looked a little obsessive and Kuru ran with off it that this then become exagerrated.

Yeah, I noticed.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 10:51 PM

Even if I don't like Firefoot's vote she looks innocentish indeed ie. her explanation makes sense.

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 10:51 PM

It may just be me, but I'm not liking the position the vote tally is in.

I myself, don't find Nog and Kuru suspicious and worthy of a vote... let alone use of bonus votes. Yet it begs the question as to whether or not they are ploys to get innocents to use their own bonus votes - so later in the game the wolves/vampire have theirs and we don't.

X'd with Gwath and Nog.

satansaloser2005

04-15-2009, 10:52 PM

You people are giving me a headache.

(This is to say that it's one of those days when I've read through the thread and went to post....then realized I didn't comprehend a bit of it. I honestly don't feel comfortable voting toDay but if for some reason I really dislike the way the voting is going I'll step in. For now though, it's just not the best idea, since I can't seem to get any sort of bad vibes from anyone....well, at least not any that I feel I could pursue with a good conscience, as I'm afraid I could kill another fellow ordo, or worse, a gifted.)

ETA: Just to be clear, I'm not frustrated by anyone in the game, nor am I cross with you. My brain just kind of exploded. :rolleyes:

Gwathagor

04-15-2009, 10:53 PM

Yeah, I noticed.

I'm just not sure that I'm ready to vote him...but if it means saving Nogrod for now, I might try it...hmmm.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 10:53 PM

I agree with Nogrod now that Firefoot has posted again that her explaination makes sense, but now it looks like to save myself I'm going to either have to vote for somebody I don't want to or blow all my bonus votes which I'm not particularly eager to do...

What to do...what to do...

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 10:55 PM

You probably see what I feel as well then Kuru? :rolleyes:

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 10:56 PM

Okay people. Give us your thoughts. You can bet there are two people eager to use a few bonus votes for a better deal than this...

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 10:58 PM

Where's everyone? :(

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 10:58 PM

Following my own suspicions, and not wanting to vote for the two highest options..

++Sally(2)

Kent2010

04-15-2009, 10:59 PM

Okay people. Give us your thoughts. You can bet there are two people eager to use a few bonus votes for a better deal than this...
You know where I stand. This is twice now that Kuru has exagerrated the circumstances against someone.

Yesterday against Agan over her Grima talk.

And I believe today against me.

I can't think of any innocent or gifted who would misrepresent so badly twice now. He was wrong about Agan, and I guarantee he is wrong about me.

Kuruharan

04-15-2009, 10:59 PM

Guess I don't have much choice...

++ Kent2010 (4)

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-15-2009, 10:59 PM

Damn, ran out of time to make that post. :(

I don't find Nogrod evil. Might as well try and get that one clue.

++Kuruharan (+3)

You're the only one on my suspicion list who has enough votes to save Nog.

Brinniel

04-15-2009, 11:00 PM

I'm going back and forth between Firefoot and Sally. They both look equally suspicious. And I must say, I don't care to vote either Kuru or Nogrod.

++Sally

EDIT: Did my vote count? It seems the clock hit 1am the second I clicked 'submit.'

satansaloser2005

04-15-2009, 11:00 PM

Where's everyone? :(

The Wargs ate my brain.

(Yay, I made a Rings reference! I asked Mnemo if it made sense so if she's being evil and it hints at something let me just say in advance that it's not supposed to)

Oh, and Izzy voted for me. Brilliant.

EDIT: x'd with the cacophony

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 11:00 PM

++ Sally (4)

Isabellkya

04-15-2009, 11:00 PM

Voting Tally.

Greenie -> Nog
Fea -> Nog(4). 6
Shasta -> Form
Form -> Greenie
Lari -> Kent
Firefoot -> Nog. 7
Kent -> Kuru(5). 6
Izzy -> Sally(2). 3

Nog 7. Kuru 6. Sally 3. Form, Greenie, Kent 1.

PLgh. x'd with everything since my last post.

satansaloser2005

04-15-2009, 11:01 PM

Oh HECK no.

Oh frick. It's 12:01. Gorgeous.

Nogrod

04-15-2009, 11:02 PM

I'm sorry, I don't know what to do...You don't need to do anything anymore. Time's over...

Mirandir

04-15-2009, 11:03 PM

THE DAY IS OVER. STOP POSTING NOW.

Tally and death to come momentarily.

Mirandir

04-15-2009, 11:15 PM

Kuru is dead. The score is now 11-3. Narration on it's way.

Mirandir

04-16-2009, 12:00 AM

There were already two dead amongst them. Both innocent. Everyone (the wolves excluded) were getting restless. It was almost time for another deadline and another death. How many more innocent people would have to die before the Witch King's twisted game was over?

Nog shot suspicious glances around the room, casting his scrutinizing gaze on all those present. Suspicion early in the Day had fallen on him and he was determined not to die.

"What about sally?" Nog cried.

"What a novel idea!" Izzy declared, adding some of her bonus votes to the decree.

"But wait!" Kent yelled, standing to prove his point. "Kuru keeps bringing up my newbie status. He must be hiding something!

The minute hand of the clock on the wall inched closer and closer to the deadline mark. Finally taking notice, many threw in their votes, leaving a flurry of papers to be sorted through. Just as it was tallied that Kuru would be the one to die, he grasped at his throat. The room fell silent as they watched him gasp for air, unable to take any in as if someone had his throat in a stranglehold. Indeed, had anybody bothered to move to slow his demise, they would have seen the faint outline of a black gauntleted hand crushing the life out of poor Kuru. The Star Wars fans in the room could not help but note the irony.

After a minute of struggling, a blue-faced Kuru fell to the floor, dead. As Kent and Lari dragged his body to the corner where they were temporarily hiding their dead, a faded blue orb rose from Kuru's deceased form and vanished into where the gate had been.

"What in the world was that?" Brinn asked, scratching her head.

Fea shrugged. "Not a wolf, that's for sure."

The mood in the room was melancholic. Night had begun.

Mirandir

04-16-2009, 11:09 PM

Night was over. Those who remained alive woke and stirred, peering around with bleary eyes. Who had been killed? Who was still alive? It would take a moment to find out.

"What the..." Form trailed off, gaze falling on the shattered window on the opposite side of the room.

"Should we...?" Sally nodded toward the window. Moving slowly, the Downers disentangled themselves from the blankets they had been cuddling with and made their way towards the window. They stood there, scratching their heads, averting their gazes, afraid of what they would find outside. Who would be the first to look out?

Brinn was the first to gather her courage. She stepped toward the window, careful to avoid the broken glass. She peered out and quickly had to look away. On the ground, neck twisted at a very interesting angle, was Firefoot. Closer inspection would reveal that her head had been cracked like an egg, explaining the pool of blood that was now nourishing the grass.

Gwath moved to slump against a bench, tripping on yet another body in the process. It was Alonairel's.

"No surprise there," Nilp commented, "She was more suicidal than I am; not voting for two days." The others nodded, knowing it to be true.

"Shame, that is," Kuru added. "It would have been nice to see something out of her." Nods were prevalent around the room. Wait. KURU?

"Why are you alive?" Lari asked, sounding panicked, as anyone seeing someone whose dead body they'd dumped in a corner the Day before should.

Kuru shrugged. "Lucky, I guess."

THE LIVING

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

THE DEAD

Nienna (10) (Ordo, Day 1 lynch)
Aganzir (9) (Ordo, Night 2 kill)
Alonariel (10) (Ordo, modfire)
Firefoot (10) (Ordo, Night 3 kill)

Score: 10-3

Day 3 has begun. :cool:

EDIT: Added the bonus vote count.

Gwathagor

04-16-2009, 11:11 PM

Well, drat - I was suspicious of Firefoot, too. Hi there, Kuru. Glad you could stick around for Day 3. That's good news, anyway.

Kuruharan

04-16-2009, 11:12 PM

Well...this is certainly a unique experience.

Funny how you lot completely overlooked my missing hand all this time.

Some of you have a *lot* of explaining to do. :mad:

Kuruharan

04-16-2009, 11:13 PM

And why don't we begin with you Gwath...

Gwathagor

04-16-2009, 11:14 PM

Ok. What shall I explain?

And once I'm done, you can explain to us why you're still alive.

Kuruharan

04-16-2009, 11:17 PM

You can explain why you didn't vote yesterDay for starters.

I'll leave it up to you to see if you can figure out why I'm still here.

satansaloser2005

04-16-2009, 11:17 PM

Aaaand Nienna's dead. Again. :rolleyes::Merisu:

So clearly Kuru is lucky as his narration persona claims, or he's Beren. I think it's pretty obvious which.

Me: "So, Kuru, where's the shiny?"

Kuru: "In my hand."

Me: "Where's your hand?"

Kuru: "Ummmm, about that...."

Me: *facepalm*

(I know, I made another Rings joke! Gasp!)

Anyway, I want to know why Footie was killed. I'll read through her posts at some point and see what I think, but in the meantime I wouldn't complain if others voiced their opinions as well.

x'd with Kuru and Gwath

Formendacil

04-16-2009, 11:17 PM

Ok. What shall I explain?

And once I'm done, you can explain to us why you're still alive.

The explanation there is clear--Kuru is Beren. Kill him once, and he returns to life for a day.

I guess that makes you our only resident Known Innocent, Kuru.

Kuruharan

04-16-2009, 11:18 PM

I'm glad you are here.

You have similar 'splaining to do.

Formendacil

04-16-2009, 11:23 PM

I should be in bed by now... but a couple of quick thoughts before I do that:

1. Alonariel has been modfired. So though we have Kuru back for a day, we're down an extra innocent as well.

2. Kuru can't use his Huan power after returning from the Dead, so apart from giving us a Known Innocent who can arbitrate between our disputes (in as arbitrary a manner as any clueless confused player of this game can), that's ALSO a shot missing from our arsenal.

More thoughts if they come before I head off to Real-Life sleep... otherwise closer to the deadline.

satansaloser2005

04-16-2009, 11:23 PM

I'm glad you are here.

You have similar 'splaining to do.

Yes and no. Remember how I said I didn't suspect anyone? I didn't. The thing was that I was pretty sure you weren't innocent, but wasn't exactly going to put Noggie on the chopping block just to save your butt when I didn't find him particularly guilty either. Also....

I honestly don't feel comfortable voting toDay but if for some reason I really dislike the way the voting is going I'll step in. For now though, it's just not the best idea, since I can't seem to get any sort of bad vibes from anyone....well, at least not any that I feel I could pursue with a good conscience, as I'm afraid I could kill another fellow ordo, or worse, a gifted.

I wasn't prepared to make a vote (for which I apologize again) and stated so fairly plainly, along with my motivation for such action, or rather lack thereof.

Just a note to self: Kuru's innocent and I trust him, but he doesn't know everything, so don't follow him like a flipping lemming, kthnxbye.

EDIT: x'd with Form. Go to bed, dear. I know I shall be doing the same hopefully shortly.

Gwathagor

04-16-2009, 11:23 PM

I'll leave it up to you to see if you can figure out why I'm still here.

That's hardly a fair trade...

You can explain why you didn't vote yesterDay for starters.

Cowardice and indecision. I thought about voting you because I didn't like the way Nogrod seemed to be going out - but I wasn't all that suspicious of you. So I was afraid to commit one way or the other, deliberated a little too long, waffled back and forth, and missed the deadline.

Gwathagor

04-16-2009, 11:24 PM

The explanation there is clear--Kuru is Beren. Kill him once, and he returns to life for a day.

Oh, of course.

satansaloser2005

04-16-2009, 11:27 PM

Cowardice and indecision. I thought about voting you because I didn't like the way Nogrod seemed to be going out - but I wasn't all that suspicious of you. So I was afraid to commit one way or the other, deliberated a little too long, waffled back and forth, and missed the deadline.

Incidentally, what he said as well. I was about to vote (granted part of it was intended as self-preservation, but that's not the point) because I didn't like how it was going and realized as I was making my post that I was already too late. Not that I probably would have been happy with my vote anyway, but now that I've not made it I feel even sillier.

(Also, I'll have a post on the admin thread shortly. Just a heads up)

Kuruharan

04-16-2009, 11:29 PM

I find your explainations rather wanting, but its too late at night here for prolonged analysis as I have to work in the morning.

I was mostly waiting around to see if...well, precisely if the two of you were going to be around right at the time the Day started.

Whatdoyaknow...

I'm off for now. See you all later.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-16-2009, 11:35 PM

The DAY 2 vote list (times in GMT +8; known innocents underlined):

03:44 Green - Nog
Nog - 1

05:38 Fea - Nog (+4)
Nog - 6

10:24 Shasta - Form
Nog - 6, Form - 1

12:05 Form - Green
Nog - 6, Form - 1, Green - 1
12:05 Lari - Kent
Nog - 6, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 1

12:45 Firefoot - Nog
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 1
12:47 Kent - Kuru (+5)
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 1, Kuru - 6

12:58 Izzy - Sally (+2)
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 1, Kuru - 6, Sally - 3
12:59 Kuru - Kent (+4)
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 6, Kuru - 6, Sally - 3
12:59 Nilp - Kuru (+3)
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 6, Kuru - 10, Sally - 3
13:00 Brinn - Sally
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 6, Kuru - 10, Sally - 4
13:00 Nog - Sally (+4)
Nog - 7, Form - 1, Green - 1, Kent - 6, Kuru - 10, Sally - 9

Did not vote: Alonariel, satansaloser2005.

EDIT 2: and Gwathagor.

Gwathagor

04-16-2009, 11:39 PM

I was mostly waiting around to see if...well, precisely if the two of you were going to be around right at the time the Day started.

Whatdoyaknow...

I'm curious to see where you're going with this...

Lariren Shadow

04-16-2009, 11:39 PM

Gwathagor

04-16-2009, 11:40 PM

Did not vote: Alonariel, satansaloser2005.

and Gwath.

satansaloser2005

04-16-2009, 11:42 PM

We get Kuru back for the Day, nice. I was surprised to actually see him dead because, well two voted for him but they used their bonus votes to put him over the edge. But at least we have a known innocent who can possibly help with the analysis(that took me five tries to spell...its time for bed) toDay.

Firefoot being Night killed that is a bigger surprise than Kuru.

I wish I could say more but I'm off to bed and have nothing else more to say really, lack of sleep makes my thou-SHINNY!

Lari, I bloody love you.

And I see Nilp beat me to making a vote tally. If no one minds I may do one anyway, because his is a little hard to understand (well, not hard to understand so much as not in my format and messes with my head, which is probably his purpose anyway) and I'd really like to have one handy. Any objections?

I think I'll step away for several hours *yawns* since I didn't get any sleep in the Night worrying about being killed and such. When the game's over I'll have some interesting stories to share, but for now I must take my leave.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 12:07 AM

As Togashi Satsu said in the flavour text of the aforementioned card, 'Why did I not foresee this?'

This series of events eliminated half of my suspicion list. Vy ze whey, sorry Kuru--had you voted for Kent sooner I would have not voted for you . . . Well, no use crying over spilled milk, it was a test I thought worth doing--the NIGHT kill and your post explaining it did make me suspicious of you.

Why Firefoot? I'll look at her posts and see if there's anything.

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 12:20 AM

I myself, did not expect Kuru to be lynched yesterDay.
And to be blatantly honest. Good to have you here for one more Day, but why are people turning to him like the godfather? He may be a known innocent, but in what way does that make him omniscient and completely infallible?

My take on the Night kills, is that they are going after the most Ordo looking people. If that is correct, then this next night - they should/would probably go after a different kind of kill. Since all three have to kill before one does twice, and the Vampire can not turn anyone.

From yesterDay, it seemed Gwath was more going to vote for Kuru because of the thing between Kuru and Kent about his newbieness. Rather than because he wanted to save Nog.

Just my three cents for the moment.

Gwathagor

04-17-2009, 12:27 AM

From yesterDay, it seemed Gwath was more going to vote for Kuru because of the thing between Kuru and Kent about his newbieness. Rather than because he wanted to save Nog.

Yeah, I did think Kuru was kind of weird about that.

Brinniel

04-17-2009, 01:35 AM

Hmm...first Aganzir and now Firefoot. Those are surprising choices. I wonder what is the wolves' motivation behind this. Are they seeking the seer? Are they just random kills? Or is there some other reason? I should probably take a look at Firefoot's posts from yesterDay and see if there are any clues; I always find it quite difficult to figure out the reason behind a kill.

I think the voting yesterDay was rather disastrous. It seems some players voted for others with such confidence that they were convinced that their suspect was evil. I don't know about the rest of you, but while I do start to figure out my suspects by Day 2, I'm rarely completely convinced of someone's guilt that early on. It's typical to have some feuding players at each other's throats, but there seemed to be a lot of people especially bloodthirsty. There were several on the lynching line, so even those who voted for self-preservation had plenty to choose from, so I can hardly see that being used as an excuse.

Also, there was a ridiculous amount of voting in the final minutes...I know I'm guilty of that as well. Shame on me; I should slap myself for not voting earlier as I said I would. I admit I tried, but I sat on my vote post for about twenty minutes as I kept changing my mind and retyping my vote between Firefoot and Sally. I'm so indecisive. :rolleyes:

And to be blatantly honest. Good to have you here for one more Day, but why are people turning to him like the godfather? He may be a known innocent, but in what way does that make him omniscient and completely infallible?

Well obviously we shouldn't treat Kuru like a god (or the godfather) and follow his every word. You're right; just because he's innocent doesn't mean he can't be wrong. But at least we know now we can trust his judgment and for that reason I'd be more likely to take his words into account than an unknown player.

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 02:01 AM

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 02:28 AM

Also, there was a ridiculous amount of voting in the final minutes...I know I'm guilty of that as well. Shame on me; I should slap myself for not voting earlier as I said I would. I admit I tried, but I sat on my vote post for about twenty minutes as I kept changing my mind and retyping my vote between Firefoot and Sally. I'm so indecisive. :rolleyes:You're not indecisive darling, you're evil. :eek:

But to be honest you lead my suspicion-list to the point I'm almost confident about your guilt. Your defence of your voting-action helped me a lot.

Those twenty minutes "started" from the situation where I had six votes and Form, Greenie & Kent had one each. You thought then whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally. Okay.

About fifteen minutes before the deadline Kuru gets six votes (Me 7, Kuru 6, the rest one each). You continue changing your mind and retyping your vote, whether to give it to Firefoot or Sally...

Two minutes / one minute before DL Sally gets three votes, Kent receives six and Kuru three more... And you continue on thinking whether Firefoot or Sally is worth your one vote to vote at the last minute?

Give me a break Brinn...

I have seen this attitude before. It's wolf-behaviour. It's disinterested. You had no intention whatsoever to influence the outcome of the voting because - well, Kuru or me, we both fitted you. You casted the safest vote possible in that situation - and if you had to ponder something about your vote it was probably about which one would look more innocent...

But the real point is: you were not interested in the outcome of the voting. During the last twenty minutes you didn't post even once to take part in the discussion. Why? Because it was such a momentous task to decide whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally - not to talk about all that retyping-effort... :rolleyes:

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 02:36 AM

Firefoot analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
198 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592855&postcount=198)
Says bonus votes should be saved as a trump card. Proposes that Agan, Shasta, and Nilp are the three wolves.

223 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592911&postcount=223)
Responds to Agan's 216 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592897&postcount=216) (re the post title thing of Kuru). Adds a comment about Kuru using http://forum.barrowdowns.com/ubb/icons/icon3.gif in his posts. But both 'seems rather innocuous' to her.

Agrees with Kent about wolves having 'a canned response to the bonus votes question', but issues a caveat about how to determine such a canned response.

255 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592976&postcount=255)
Says that she's afraid the ones being suspected are the most talkative ones. Wonders about Agan using a bonus vote on Kuru, and further wonders if he's[sic] the seer. Votes for Kuru to test it out.

One of the posts that put her on the suspicion list of some people, myself included.

257 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592978&postcount=257)
She thanks me for being kindhearted. :D

DAY 2

290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593096&postcount=290)
Defends her pointing out Agan as a seer (albeit in strangely-worded fashion). Wonders if Kuru is a wolf, or if Agan was being a liability to the evil side, lack of gift notwithstanding. In another paragraph, she thinks Agan's use of a bonus vote made her look like a seer.

Her other suspicious post.

325 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593161&postcount=325)
Doesn't find anyone suspicious. However, if Kuru turns out to be a wolf, Izzy and Brinn would look suspicious.

'If' was emphasised, and she added the phrase 'but that's a big if' at the end, indicating, perhaps, that she did not suspect Kuru much at this point.

329 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593168&postcount=329)
Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593141&postcount=313) (a comment on Kuru's 311 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593137&postcount=311), where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .

395 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593267&postcount=395)
Defends her seer comment. Says that it would be sloppy to point out a seer and kill her the next NIGHT. Votes for Nog.

Later Nogrod comments on this post (399 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593271&postcount=399)), where she deemed Firefoot 'innocentish' . . .

Conclusions:

She suspected Shasta and Nilp on early DAY 1, and Nog (mildly) on DAY 2.
Everyone she interacted with on DAY 1 was proven innocent--save Kent (and Nilp, if you could call 257 'interaction.')
She was suspicious on DAY 2 due to her seer comment.
She withdrew her suspicion of Kuru DAY 2.
Her comments on Kent's newbie status revived a supposedly dead issue and caused a flare-up between Kuru and Kent.

Brinniel

04-17-2009, 03:33 AM

But the real point is: you were not interested in the outcome of the voting. During the last twenty minutes you didn't post even once to take part in the discussion. Why? Because it was such a momentous task to decide whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally - not to talk about all that retyping-effort...
So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...I still hold to that Day One vote because I wanted to give Kuru a second Day. But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions. And no I didn't give Sally any of my bonus votes because while I suspect her, I wasn't convinced she was guilty and since we do only have ten bonus votes, my opinion is that you should only used them when you're convinced you've found a wolf. Sorry, but it just really irritates me to hear that I'm "disinterested" because I didn't make a decisive vote. My vote may have not been a critical one but neither was it a complete throwaway. I x-posted with several votes in those last two minutes, so I really had no idea what the outcome would be. My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so. Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand. It seems like a clever bluff for a baddie to use their bonus votes and then go after everyone who didn't to make yourself look good, because indeed the most obvious strategy for the wolves is for all of them to save their votes. But do you really think that the wolves will choose the most obvious strategy? I think not.

I may use some bonus votes toDay or I may not. It depends on my suspicions. If I don't have anyone I feel strongly enough against (and sometimes I don't have any strong suspects), I won't dump my bonus votes on them. Honestly I'm not the most accurate voter, so I do want to be careful who I use them on because I'd feel quite regretful if I ended up getting an innocent lynched with my bonus votes. Seeing how messy yesterDay got, perhaps more players should do the same.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 04:01 AM

An alternate explanation to the NIGHT kill has already been put forward by Form yesterDAY:

One hugely important thing that might be involved is that whoever the wolves select as their nighttime kill has the potential, if an ordo, to become the new member of their pack, rather than supper. Granted, it's a one-in-six chance, but at this point in the game, when perhaps none of them are under suspicion, they picked a supper victim who would have the greatest chance of NOT being identified as a potential victim if we all woke up today, and no one was dead.

To put it in other words, perhaps the wolves decided that, if Aganzir was converted to their side, and we woke up today with no one missing from our midst, she'd be the last one we'd look for as a converted new wolf, simply because she had been so conspicuous yesterday, and thus the sort of noisy person that wolves leave around to keep the heat off themselves.

Of course this doesn't detract from other explanations (like us barking up the totally wrong trees!)

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 04:17 AM

Having pressed the 'Submit' button accidentally on the abovementioned post (was absent-minded and thought I was previewing it), I forgot to tack on the statement:

So we should probably look at the ones that escape our attention at this moment (i.e. the quiet ones.) Consulting the post counts:

Under 10: Lari, Green.
Under 20: Sally, Shasta, Brinn.
Under 30: Nilp, Izzy, Gwath.

(I'm not saying that they're all being quiet as a tactic, I acknowledge the existence of RL issues, but I remember winning a game where I used my RL-enforced quietness to my advantage--of course, getting the seer right and using that to my advantage helped, too. ;) )

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 04:30 AM

There are also the cases of the one-third chances. As well as the two/three nights in a row, someone can be turned. The three could all be males, looking to get rid of the females. Or could all be females, looking to get rid of fellow females to be left with a village of males. Or any reason for that matter.

Do those posts counts include the meet-and greet portion, Nilp?

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 04:32 AM

Yes, unfortunately, they do. I'll do a proper count of game-related posts then.

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 04:53 AM

I think this is what it should look like without the negative day posts:

32 - Nog
31 - Form
30 - Kent
22 - Kuru
22 - Gwath
21 - Nilp
21 - Izzy
17 - Brin
16 - Fea
12 - Sally
08 - Greenie
06 - Shasta
05 - Lari

X'd with Nilp. Ahh, I see.

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 05:06 AM

You posted just as I finished counting. :p Looks just about right.

So, adding a personal slant to things (like actual things said in posts, lingering impressions on my mind or lack thereof, etc.), my list of people to watch out for has:

Lari
Shasta
Green
Sally
Fea
Izzy
Gwath

Plus my outstanding suspicion of Kent and Brinn . . . wow, that's more than two-thirds of the village!

At least I'm convinced of Nogrod's innocence (let's see if some will take a hint ;) ) and we have a known innocent in Kuruharan.

Anyone wants to do a post analysis of Lari, Shasta, or Green? Shouldn't be do hard. I'll do Sally.

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 05:09 AM

I'm not going to apologize to you Kuru, I think you brought it upon yourself, glad you are innocent, but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it. That's all, I'll be back after work.

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 05:31 AM

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 06:06 AM

Sally analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
233 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592925&postcount=233)
Calls us slackers and whips us all into shape. Says she will listen to what has been said before deciding who to vote against.

250 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592968&postcount=250)
Responds to various posts, mostly banter, but comments on the various issues. Says that she'll keep an eye on those hoarding their bonus votes for the endgame. Also, comments on the Gríma discussion, saying that looking for him is about as effective as looking for Pippin. Makes the following comment comment on wolf activity:
True that wolves make an effort to be more consistent, but they don't necessarily succeed, as you point out, and some wolves (like me, when I am a wolf) act even more off the wall than they do when they're ordos, because they know that if they try to control everything they say it is more likely to slip than if they just go with the flow and try to subtly direct the village.More on her slips later.

258 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592979&postcount=258)
Has no idea who to kill yet.

Izzy (387 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593259&postcount=387)) comments on her use of the word 'kill' here, instead of, say, lynch or vote.

262 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592987&postcount=262)
Say's she'll 'look over Nienna's posts real quick and see what the fuss is about.' Eight minutes later . . .

266 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=592992&postcount=266)
Votes for Nienna, indicating her 'furry potential', her being 'blinking brilliant as a wolf', and generally wariness to leave her alive for long.

DAY 2

401 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593273&postcount=401)
Says that she has no suspicions, and that she'll abstain from voting for fear of killing an innocent or worse, a gifted. But she'll step in if she 'dislikes the way the vote is going.' Slipetty-slip number three?

412 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593284&postcount=412)
Banter. Comments on Izzy's vote for her.

415 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593288&postcount=415)
Post was made after the deadline. More banter.

DAY 3

426 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593389&postcount=426)
Alonariel = Nienna2? Affirms Kuru is Beren. Says she'll look into why Firefoot was killed, but would like the opinion of others, too.

430 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593394&postcount=430)
Was interrogated by Kuru re yesterDAY's voting. Affirms that she didn't suspect anyone, but though Kuru wasn't innocent (!?). Didn't find Nog suspicious then.

The fourth sentence of her response to Kuru is quite confusing. If I'm reading it aright . . . slip number four?!

433 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593397&postcount=433)
Quotes Gwath's answer to Kuru's interrogation, and says she feels the same way. Adds that she didn't like the way the vote was going, and that she was about to vote. But don't worry, the deadline saved you. :p

439 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=593404&postcount=439)
Comments on Nilp's vote list, thinks that Nilp's purpose with it is to mess with her head. Then she says she's going to bed, with intriguing comments such as fearing being killed at NIGHT and interesting stories to share after the game.

Conclusions:

Her voting has been rather suspect.
She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway. :D

Nilpaurion Felagund

04-17-2009, 06:08 AM

Bleah. I'm eating supper.

I'll probably be back before the deadline.

Kuruharan

04-17-2009, 08:37 AM

I have a proposal to make for our conduct today. I believe that thus far there has not been nearly enough analysis taking place on the part of those of us here. This needs to change if the Villagers are going to avoid suffering a humiliating rout in this game.

So, my proposal is that everyone here needs to offer up a post with their ideas and analysis of every other player here so we can construct some workable theories so we can look at events and be able to say “If X happens then Y must be true or if X doesn’t happen then Z must be true.” We cannot have any more of people being too afraid to vote or voting out of reaction because some other player dared to speculate about them (or being able to say these things and use it as cover). Everyone is going to be speculating about everyone else. The more ideas we get out there on the table now the better. You are all intelligent people and you all have ideas, even if you don’t think you do…go review the thread and develop some. Look at the behavior of other players and share your thoughts about all of them with us. We are flirting with the nether-regions of disaster now, its time for everybody to open up.

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

The critical aspect of this plan is that everyone is speculating about everyone else and ideas are discussed as freely as possible. Being dead, I am not going to have many qualms about making people uncomfortable who I don’t believe are contributing. As I said, you are all intelligent people and well capable of developing good ideas that are worth considering and listening to (except, of course, for the wolves who all need to be brutally killed ;) ). Villagers I am only doing it for your own good if I seem to pick on you, we are well on our way to being stomped here if things don’t change. Wolves I am not doing it for your own good because I want you to lose…so please make many mistakes and fall all over each other and generally run around like headless chickens.

Essentially I want a situation where everyone has laid their cards on the table and exposed themselves (get your junior high giggles out of your system now…all done? Good. Moving on.) In this way the village will have clearer ideas of what has happened previously and be better able to act according to what happens in the future thanks to having done some thorough analysis and planning.

As I said, this village is skirting the ragged edge of disaster and is going to have to make some effort to save itself.

Kuruharan

04-17-2009, 08:41 AM

but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it.

You completely over-reacted to somebody putting forward some speculations about you to the point where you put me in an untenable position where I couldn't talk about much else but you and I had to vote against you to try to save myself...even though at the beginning I wasn't really intending to vote against you at all.

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.

We really need to avoid that toDay.

And I agree with you regarding Gwath.

Anyway, posting from work right now and I have to stop...will be back later.

A Little Green

04-17-2009, 09:46 AM

Hello I'm here. I would have been here already a few hours ago if the Barrow-Downs hadn't had some problems.
Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand.Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too. I don't see the sense in consuming your bonus votes unless you are at least relatively sure about the person you vote for - and I, for one, haven't yet been so and I bet that's the case with many others as well. What is more, the sort of "I suspect everyone who hasn't used any bonus votes" attitude isn't going to do us good in the long run as it may pressure people to use their bonus votes even if they weren't sure of what they are doing, which not only might lead to disastrous voting scenarios but also to a situation where most people have used up their bonus votes and the few wolves who have them left can control the game easily.

I'll be back in a while with some comments on yesterDay.

Oh, and a little addition: I still don't think the post count a relevant source of information concerning the amount of participation. There are people who like to post the thing they want to say in shorter sections and those who put it all in one post. Also, I don't think the amount of posts (unless outrageously small) necessarily correlates with the amount of actual substance the player provides.

satansaloser2005

04-17-2009, 10:02 AM

Here's the current player-list with the number of bonus-votes left.

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Why is this such an urgent thing to do? We're now on 10-3 but as Kuru is here only for this Day the numbers will be 7-3 toMorrow if we miss toDay (unless Finrod succeeds of course).

Now Thuringwethil can kill someone who still has ten votes on the Night to come and suck the votes to herself giving her twenty extra votes toMorrow. The wolves - having 10 extra each - add up another twenty. Grima possibly having ten extra as well, s/he can just wait and see how the baddies start voting and join the fray. They have together 50 extra votes! That reads fifty! 50!

And those 50 votes are available for them to use against the remaining maximum votes of six innocents - the total number of our votes being 37 at the moment - not counting the possible extras we need to use already toDay... :eek: :(

So toMorrow they lynch whomever they wish and kill one the next Night leading us into 5-3 on Day5 and openly defeat us under the bright sunlight. (Yeah, they too may need to use some of their extra-votes toMorrow to drive the lynch but even one of us ordos not voting in line with others eases their task considerably)

But that's why they would love to keep their full bonus-vote stack yet toDay. And that's why we need to either empty their pockets or lynch one of them toDay.

Well if one of the baddies has already used a few of her/his bonus votes? That's perfectly possible but I wouldn't count on that as a common guideline, at least toDay. And I could bet quite a lot that at least two of them are still fully armed - I'm afraid they all are - so let's dig them out.

*hugs you*

Okay, first of all as far as I understand Thureth....Thurwen....*looks it up*....Thuringwethil can only suck two votes, so at max 'she' is going to end up with 12. Still problematic, but not as bad as you'd think, since hopefully she'll suck (no pun intended, yet it totally is) after she's already used a good portion of her bonus votes.

And I sort of agree about at least some of the baddies still having a full arsenal, but it's possible that they might have used some of them yesterDay either in self preservation or just to get poor Kuru out of the way.

By the way, thanks SO much for the attention yesterDay. *glares* Focus your mad wolf hunting skills (and associated remaining bonus votes) on a baddie next time though if you please.

....

....

Crap. I just went back and read the rules and you're right. If she kills someone she gets however many bonus votes that person has left. Oh my giddy aunt. Now I see why you're concerned. In that case it would almost be better for everyone to rid themselves of some bonus votes toDay if for no other reason than to make sure that if Vamp Girl (I don't want to keep scrolling up to find her name) kills someone she doesn't get as many votes. (Theoretically when she makes her kill, if she hasn't already, she might go for someone with their full arsenal as Noggie called it, knowing that we won't see the result of her vote suck because the person will be dead. Again, just a theory, but it makes sense to me.)

That brings up an interesting point. Footie didn't use any of her bonus votes so it's very possible that Vampie wanted her extra power. There's probably other reasons too, but if Vamp Girl made the kill last Night then that would be my guess as to why.

(Insert his commentary on me here)

Conclusions:

Her voting has been rather suspect.
She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

Here your logic fails. You'll notice that when I said 'wolves like me' I also stated that I do that when I'm a wolf. My voting was explained (sort of) but I really do understand why you'd find that odd, so I'm not at all upset about that. And I know. You just hate me. :Merisu:

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 10:07 AM

I do warmly recommend everyone following Kuru's idea.

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough* or fail to vote *coughGwathSallycough*.

I would indeed love to see a round from everyone where you would come up with at least one suspicion of everyone else. So no more "I'll rub you nicely, please rub me back nicely"-stuff either. Let the suspicions flow.

I'll need to make some dinner but I'll be back after that with a few answers / questions to Brinn and then hopefully doing Kuru's bidding myself.

EDIT: X'd with Sally

Formendacil

04-17-2009, 10:26 AM

Gwathagor

04-17-2009, 11:26 AM

P.S. one more thing...

I'd like to know Gwath why you decided to chime in at the end between Kuru and myself? I appreciated it at the time, but now with not voting it looks like a move to egg the situation forward and looks like an oppurtunistic wolf defending an innocent.

At the end? Probably because I didn't read the exchange until it was nearly over. Kuru said you had been making a big fuss over your newbie status and I disagreed with him, so I said so. It seemed possible to me that Kuru genuinely believed you had been overly defensive and that he wasn't simply misrepresenting the situation, as a wolf would do. This possibility contributed to my indecision when it came time to vote, as I do not like to vote against people simply based on a difference of opinion. If I did that, I'd never vote anyone but Nogrod and Rikae.:rolleyes:

Gwathagor

04-17-2009, 11:34 AM

Regarding the bonus votes issue: the more innocents who save their bonus votes, the better - whoever has the most bonus votes towards the end of the game will win. Do NOT waste them now.

Now that I'm thinking along these lines, I wonder if Grima might be likely to try to force innocents to use their bonus votes early on by using some of his/her own.

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 11:37 AM

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.
-Kuru
And I'm going to let you know how I play. There were plenty of apt reasons to honestly believe your were at least the cobbler, my reasons were not skewed by the emotion at the end.

One of the games I scanned before this, a person who played the cobbler said he was the cobbler in one of his very first posts and that went ignored until it was too late. Some may think an ordos job is to vote, let the specials fight it out, and die, but I don't. I will jump right into something, if smiley and punctutation placement can be scrutinized I will call out coded messages and titles. Think twice before anyone tries nifty mind tricks and manuevers. I believe if you bring that type of attention to yourself you get what you ask - for either good or ill.

My mistake was the emotions at the end led me to dump 5 bonus votes on you, and even if you turned out to be the cobbler, that was probably far too much to waste on the cobbler.

But now you all know how I call it, if you don't like it and think my job is to shut up and die, tough...deal with it.

Now, with that out of the way, I will do as you ask Kuru and get to analyzing. I can't be here until the deadline today, but I have lots of hours open today.

satansaloser2005

04-17-2009, 11:39 AM

Gwathagor

04-17-2009, 11:42 AM

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

satansaloser2005

04-17-2009, 11:54 AM

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

Very good point. I'm just concerned by the fact that Kent was after Kuru for perhaps being the cobbler and didn't seem to be bothered much by everyone else. Maybe I'm just paranoid or something.

*shrugs*

Also, good point a few posts above about Grima wanting people to use their bonus votes. I wouldn't want everyone to use them, but I think if at some point in the game there's only a couple ordos with all their bonus votes Vamp Girl might kill 'em and suck 'em dry. That was my only real concern. Although I'm still worried both about people who use them frivolously (aka use 6 or so in a Day, not that it's a problem so much a possible indication that they've got more than we think they do) or people who intentionally are holding them not for just the right time, but specifically for the end of the game.

Lariren Shadow

04-17-2009, 12:15 PM

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true. If they were to see a villager that is on to them using their bonus votes to kill that villager wouldn't be a bad idea. That way they could, conceivably, get two kills in one Day. Maybe looking at those who used their bonus votes already might not be a bad idea.

I for one am saving mine till I feel really sure of someone's guilt.

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones? I know why I've been quiet, and I'm going to respect the rules about not talking about RL stuff. This whole "let's look at the quiet ones" thing, excluding when Kuru says it, seems like a good way for the wolves/vamp to get more innocents killed. While there is a probability that, in the quiet ones, there is a baddie, there is the same probability that there is a baddie among the vocal ones. Limiting the suspicions to just the quiet ones is a good way for a vocal baddie to hide.

At some point toDay I will be doing the whole long theories post like Kuru said we should.

A Little Green

04-17-2009, 12:22 PM

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough*What's this about? "Hiding in the shadows" should be translated as "being busy with school stuff" and "Trying not to displease anyone but the one they vote" as "having no time to concentrate on many people and thus using the time you have to look at someone more properly - and not feeling good about what you find there". I think we've had this discussion before but everyone doesn't have the time to be as vocal as you and that shouldn't be anything to get upset about. Unless you'd like to establish some hardcore-ww game where everyone has to post at least 30 posts and suspect the minimum of seven people a day, you should accept that everyone just isn't able to post as actively as you'd like. Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

Back soon with a list...

EDIT: x-ed with Lari

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 12:36 PM

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.Well now, reverend Form! Bless you! :D
(btw. at the moment you stand third in my list of suspicions but that is sure subject to change as I will go back to look at everyone...)

Okay, to Brinn's last post then to begin with as I think it's important.

So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...You could say that very same thing as a wolf and as an innocent, so it's not exactly an argument on your behalf. Though I must agree that the only decent reason I have for still doubting my case on you a bit is your vote on Day1. Maybe you were indecisive then - as you claimed toDay you were yesterDay? :)

But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions.Well, if you really suspected Sally and Firefoot - and you were an ordo seeing nothing particularly good/bad in me and Kuru - wouldn't you have wished to persuade some others to see your point? It's more than obvious that both I and Kuru would have been more than ready to discuss an alternative solution - and whatever your thoughts were, shouldn't you have shared them with us others online at that time to try and make it good for the Pub (the village, that is)? But no, you were not interested about the outcome of the vote but of whom do you give a vote that will not be eyed too closely as it's not a decisive vote?

A goodie cares about the outcome of the vote as lynches are basically the only ways of getting the baddies down. To baddies it's not such a big thing unless one of them is in trouble in a critical moment.

Your action yesterDay didn't give the impression of you being bothered as who would be killed, but it gave the impression of you being very interested in not voting for anyone who would get killed and thus would lead into someone scrutinizing you on behalf of that innocent's death.

Also, if you were a goodie you would have wanted to negotiate the lynch with the others. Why do you try to imply to us (in your earlier post toDay) you were having really a tough time deciding between Firefoot and Sally like it was something important (which it wasn't because you left your vote to the last possible instant so that no one could react to your vote) as meanwhile you don't give a damn to who gets lynched by not trying to influence the vote / negotiate it with others still to vote?

--- interlude ---

My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?That's a story indeed. Just think how mad I was when I realised I had lost four perfectly usable bonus-votes for nothing!

After seeing at .58 that Izzy had given Sally 4 votes, I sighed from relief and had just written Sally's name to my vote post and was counting for like third time how many votes I should spend to make her even with me when I refreshed the screen and saw your vote to Sally - and Nilp's +3 to Kuru.

But Nilp's vote was not highlighted!

It was already .00 and I refreshed the page a few times to see whether Nilp had edited his post to highlight his vote, but it never turned red. I had no idea how many seconds I had left and finally blinked making the post - adding one more bonus vote just in case someone - like Sally - would have given me one more vote in between my last 'refresh the page' and 'submit message' -clicks.

I just couldn't trust Nilp's vote would be accepted as it was not highlighted on .00.

--- end interlude ---

Your idea of calling me the safe-voter or someone shying away from decisive voting is ridiculous even if you didn't notice that error of Nilp not highlighting his vote. Why would I waste four bonus votes for nothing when I'm about to be lynched? Really. At .59 I was still leading the tally. You think someone would love to be indecisive at that kind of minute?

Are you that low on things to throw at me when I got you? :rolleyes:

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so.I just tried to awaken people to the problem we have in our hands. If you think my theory is bad you should argue for a better one and not blame me for trying. The moment you come up with a better working plan I will abandon mine and change to yours.

Also I disagree with you in principle here (which has nothing to do with whatever suspicions I have about you). In principle the bonus votes are a great asset to the baddies as they know each other and can co-ordinate their votes in real-time via PM's. That's a huge weapon they have - and a terrible disadvantage to us.

So what's the cure? We will never be able to gather all the innocents who are in doubt under one banner to collectively vote together from our solitary confinements, but the "all-knowing" and "all the time PM'ing" baddies can do it. So let's get rid of that power only the baddies can use as soon as we can.

So we need to create an athmosphere where anyone having ten bonus-votes left feels s/he is going to be lynched because of it - or which would be better: we should force the baddies to defend their mate(s) with their bonus-votes, if we just got a good enough threat to them.

For they will fight toDay. If they get through this Day with no extra-votes used and lynching an innocent they will win unless a miracle happens. So we need to force them to fight toDay if we get it right - or at least need to pressurise them to disarm with the threat of lynching.

Suspecting you heavily I think is a good start.

As I said yesterDay: an ordo may think a lot of voting power is her/his ultimate defence but that's not true. We can not organise our votes as the baddies can and a single disagreement may be the end of it.

I didn't post those counts of the worst-scenario numbers in vain. That is a true possibility and we may be practically lost toMorrow morning.

I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early.Who has suggested that kind of "tactics"? Not me. I said we should all disarm - as a show of confidence that is - and then lynch those who do not wish to join. And I expressed many reservations to that. And I already kind of deserted the plan in my posts as an impossible one to execute - before I realised it could be accomplished if we could pressure the wolves toDay.

Oh my, enough of this... I'll come back to your other points if you insist but this is getting too long and I should pay attention to other affairs as well.

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts I see...

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 12:37 PM

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious.
-Brinn

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too.
-Greenie

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true.
-Lariren
This is interesting...three defenses for keeping onto the bonus votes. So, how to seperate the unsure innocent holding on to the boni until necessary from the wolves harvesting them?

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

If you take out the universal innocent Kuru, and I count myself out because I'm an ordo, that is 9/11 with over 7 bonus, and 7/11 with all 10. There are two ways we can solve this disparity.

One, lynch the people with 6 and under, that would get rid of the gap in bonus, but I doubt that will work, because I'm innocent and I still see no reason to think Nogrod is a baddie.

Or two we start applying pressure to those who have lots of bonus, that will even the levels back down, and based on the huge proportion of people with all their bonus still left, there is one if not multiple baddies.

I also think some of you are being a bit too defensive about what Nogrod is saying regarding bonus votes. It does not sound like he's saying if you have 10 bonus you are a wolf and we will lynch you, he's focusing the field. The fact is over half the people still have all there bonus, and its faulty to disregard that fact by saying "well yes there could be a wolf here, but there could not be as well!"

x'ed with Nogrod and Greenie

Kuruharan

04-17-2009, 12:47 PM

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones?

I'm not. While I admit that at the moment I very much suspect that the debates thus far have largely missed the actual wolves entirely that doesn't mean that I am assuming they have been quiet.

I don't really want anybody to be assuming anything about anybody. We need analysis and facts. Everyone should be giving *everybody* else a hard look, and when I say everyone I mean everyone...loud, quiet, tall, short, thin, fat...whatever.

*jabs a sharp object at Form*

What do you mean you don't have any idea about what to say? You're smart and you've talked almost more than anybody else in this thread.

*removes the booze and smokes far from where Form is*

I was a bit reluctant to do this because I *don't* want everyone following me around like lemmings because I don't really know more than anybody else but since people seem more interested in doing more self-justification I guess I'll go ahead and do a quick overview to get us started.

Brinniel - Deeply Suspicious. Her help throughout has been less than helpful when it comes down to it. She is exhibiting a lot of those troubling "be visible but nowhere near the forefront" signs. If I was voting right now I'd vote for her.

Fea - Where is she toDay? Some of her actions, like her vote for Nogrod are really beginning to strike me as more than a little bit creepy. Course she always strikes me as creepy...

Form - I'm beginning to grow troubled about Form. For the most part I have thought that he is innocent, but at the same time I'm disturbed by just how much he has managed to blend into the background. This is almost never good. Right at the moment I'm having some very disturbing visions of a possible Form/Nilp axis that I am not liking the implications of at all. Not that I really have anything concrete to back it up, its just a thought that has flashed through my mind.

Green - I have to admit that I don't totally follow Nogrod's suspicions about her...but the fact that Nog is so suspicious of her is enough to make me wary. I personally think we have bigger fish to fry than her though.

Gwath - Deeply Suspicious. He, like Brinn, is one who's help has proved to be less than actually helpful. His behavior yesterDay at the end was very troubling what with him appearing to egg on the Kent vs. Kuru situation and then his not voting by reason of fright. Another theory is that he was hoping not to leave any fingerprints. He's been talky today but not really offered anything useful at the time I'm typing this.

Izzy - Kind of below my mental radar right now...which is causing all sorts of warning klaxons to go off in my head. I'm hoping some others will have some more substantial things to say about her.

Kent - Mostly now I think he's innocent given the hyperactivity of his defense yesterday. That did bear signs of an innocent falsely accused and thinking he's on to something...alas...he wasn't. :\ Still don't trust him, though.

Lari - Another one who is kind of beneath my mental radar. *cue warning klaxons* For some reason they aren't going off as loudly about her as about Izzy...but there is no rational reason for that. Don't have any fix on her.

Nilp - The other half of my feared Form/Nilp axis that I'm kinda worried about. If it is them or one of them we may be done for because we are running out of time to test theories. He's appeared helpful...and yet weird at the same time, but that is kinda normal. Definitely kind of has that blending into the background feel for me at least.

Nogrod - I think he is innocent. He's the one I feel most confident about being innocent. If he's a wolf then, quite frankly, its getting to the point where he deserves the win and my hat will be unreservedly off to him for it.

Sally - Deeply suspicious. Her help has also not been particularly helpful and she didn't vote yesterDay. I will say that in my mind it is a mitigating circumstance that Brinn voted for her. If Brinn turns out to be innocent I'd definitely want to lynch Sally.

Shasta - I don't trust him at all, but he's been around so little that it feels like we have bigger fish to fry than him.

Right now my mind is focused on a Brinn - Gwath combination with the third wolf not really clear to me, or secondarily a Form - Nilp combination also with the third wolf unclear.

I'm struggling with that third wolf.

It could also be some other combination of the above.

Anyway, its time for me to head back to work and that's where things are for me right now.

Get posting! :)

xed with everyone since 470

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 01:05 PM

It's good I had a cigarette first before sending this one. I wrote quite a rant and a disclaimer of some eloquence but have now deleted it and will only say this.

Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.I have nothing against different tactics. No. Everyone may play as they will.

But everyone should be ready to face the consequences of not giving themselves into the game and thus being looked on as suspicious by those others who actually play or see it that way.

One may play as she wishes but she can't protest if someone thinks her guilty because of that. One should be able to play as she wishes, but also able to suspect others just the way she wishes.

Or do you want to say that playing-styles are free but ways to suspect are not?

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 01:11 PM

Kuru! Are you just "a phantom" :) or do you have votes that count?

That would be nice to know.

A Little Green

04-17-2009, 01:25 PM

Brinniel (10) -Seems innocentish and I agree with her a lot. (Not that that means anything - I've been saying that about her in every game we've played together, regardless of her role...)

Fea (6) - Quite frankly I have no idea about her. I'd love to have a look at her if I have the time. Her vote yesterDay was weird because it wasn't explained in any way whatsoever. She did mention earlier that her attention was on Nog because of his Day 1 vote, but unless I missed something she didn't voice suspicion on him anywhere else.

Formendacil (10) - He still seems innocent and speaks good sense.

Gwath (10) - His Day 1 vote made me raise eyebrows, as did his lack of vote on Day 2. His posting has looked okay otherwise.

Izzy (8) - I have no idea whatsoever. She's so securely under my radar that I begin to get worried. She's another I'd love to look at.

Kent (5) - Seems innocent. Can't put it better than that.

Kuruharan (6) - I don't know why I included him in the list in the first place since we know what he is. Nice guy.

Lari (10) - As securely under my radar as Izzy. She has pretty much escaped my attention this far. I'll look at her if I have the time.

Nilp (7) - Sometimes I just don't get where he's coming from, with all that stuff about Sally's "slips" (none of which looked like wolf slips to me) and post counts. I don't know about him, but he's at least someone I will keep an eye on.

Nogrod (5) - I'm trying to get past my irritation with him (:p) and analyse him objectively. I'm still behind everything I said about him yesterDay. His Day 1 vote still seems very fishy to me. Also, I don't see the logic behind his theory on how everyone should consume their votes as soon as possible. Or rather, I can see it serving a purpose if he's evil, but not otherwise.

Sally (10) - I don't have much of a read on her either, but there's nothing about her that makes me wary.

Shasta (10) - I understand he's been busy, but that doesn't make his Day 2 vote any less strange. Actually, Shasta - you said your vote was random between the three people you suspected. Who were the three and on what grounds did you suspect them? Form was one, obviously, I guess I was another, but who was the third? Yeah, but I don't know about Shasta. He speaks sense at times, and at times he behaves weirdly.

Any conclusions? Most of the people are apparently either "no idea" or "either innocent or wolf". In other words, looks much like my lists always do. :rolleyes: I'll probably vote in an hour or so and go to sleep. As yet I don't know who to vote for, though.

EDIT: x-ed since my last - oh my, what novels these guys are writing! :eek:

Brinniel

04-17-2009, 01:29 PM

Okay, I do want to respond to you Nogrod as I disagree with you and am irritated on many levels. But I have somewhere to be shortly, so it'll have to wait a few hours. Perhaps that's a good thing for you because I'm feeling extremely peeved right now. I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village? Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched. As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you.

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage. Since seven people haven't used their bonus votes yet, lynching wrongly would be very easy to do toDay.

Great...now I'm probably gonna be late for where I need to be. See, you really shouldn't mess with a girl who's PMSing right now... :rolleyes:

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 01:29 PM

I find this rather weird. If you think someone to be the seer there's no good reason to state it publicly. Maybe the wolves already picked up on it, but maybe not and you just gave it away. The fact that she feels the need to defend her statement suggesting that Agan may be the seer in that same post is even more concerning.

Though it's also possible this was a ploy and Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer when she really just believed her to be an ordo so that they would Night kill her. This scenario has occurred before. But I've never played with Firefoot before, so I don't know if she is the type of player to come up with such a ploy.
-Brinn in #383

This is peculiar, particularly that 2nd paragraph. The 1st paragraph is a typical reaction to Firefoot pointing out Agan could be the seer on Day 1. But the 2nd paragraph, yesterday is peculiar because Firefoot was killed.

Brinn's 'alternate scenario' is Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer and the wolves would target her - and that this wouldn't be the first time. I'm not quite sure what situation Brinn is referring to, but is this an early glance of the wolves discussion last night in picking Firefoot? The 2nd scenario is just odd, because how would Firefoot know Agan was not the seer, believe Agan was an ordo, and decide to set her up as the seer for the wolves to go after that night - if Firefoot was not the seer herself?

I am going under the assumption that the wolves primary person they want out of the way is the seer, so the alternate scenario is really strange considering Firefoot was killed last night.

One of my disagreements with Nilp's analysis over Firefoot's post is this:
329
Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (a comment on Kuru's 311, where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .
I have a problem with this, if the wolves believed Firefoot was the seer, and that's why she was killed, I would not just look at who she attacked (mostly Nogrod yesterday) but who she defended might be just as important. If she defended someone pretty strongly, that could also be a tip off to the wolves, making them believe Firefoot was the seer.

x'ed with Brinn and Greenie

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 01:35 PM

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage.
-Brinn
That person whether wolf or innocent will most likely use their bonus to save themselves, which is I think the bigger point, to start levelling out the field.

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 02:10 PM

Just a few comments while reading.

Bonus Votes.
This talk about it not being sensible to use them unless certain the person being voted for is guilty.

We would all like to believe that we alone possess all of the control over the allotted votes we were given. False.
We can be forced into using them by others' actions. See, not always under the thumb of our control.

If you aren't going to use your bonus votes, until you are supremely sure of your choice - then what happens when everyone else is using the weight of two votes versus your one? It isn't the same scenario as previous games.

I'm not liking the interactions between Gwath and Sally. At this point in time, I will probably be voting for Sally again toDay.
Usually, she is very confident in most every thing she says - or she appears supremely confident in her words. This game, she quite frequently self doubts and fishes.

Nog, I only gave Sally three votes yesterDay. One regular and two bonus.

*Won't follow the animated corpse of Kuru around like a lemming*
*though will heed advice of suspecting everyone* xD

When am I not under the radar? Even when I do bold things, I'm under the radar.

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 02:15 PM

Further on bonus votes.
We should have all come to a collective agreement in the beginning. Ha!
Use one regular and two bonus votes a Day. Would've spread everything out equally for a five Day game. xD
Equal weight.

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 02:17 PM

Cool down Brinn, this is only a game. And you know I love you: this is pretty straightforwards, no sarcasm or smilies included.

It's only that in this game I have reasons to believe you have a role of a baddie.

I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village?Now this is interesting. If you would manage to bag a wolf - what good would that be?
*Ponders about it: what good would there be of lynching a wolf toDay? Hard to see... what good would there be? :)*

Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched.The baddies will probably kill those innocents with the most votes left by Nights (see Firefoot with ten votes). Also they would like to keep their votes to themselves if they need not use them - and they, unlike us - know when they need to use them. And remember that Thuringwethil may suck ten votes from an innocent the Night before the baddies decide to make their final attack if there is one. Then they will have 40-50 votes to spend on one Day which we innocents can never stand up against.

What to do?

Lynch those with ten votes - or create a general feeling that those having ten votes are the ones in the line for the gallows. Then the wolves need to discharge their votes and - especially if we get one toDay - then we may be able to breathe once more a little.

Those with ten votes are not an asset to the village, they are a threat. They may think in their individual potholes that they are the fighters for freedom but they are the harbringers of doom in many senses.

Just think there are three romantic heroes around with ten votes. One gets killed by Thurnigwethil and her/his ten extra votes are in the possession of the baddies the next Day. Then the two remaining ten-voters disagree with each other who's the wolf and vote different people. That's it. We lose. The wolves know to concentrate their votes on the "right target", we don't.

The extra votes are a threat, not an asset. The extra-votes work for the baddies, not for the village, notwithstanding how important you would feel yourself to be armed with a host of extra-votes to save yourself or to make the genious saving vote for the village. You will not be given that chance. How many times do I need to say this?

You're like these guys with a metal objects in their pocket thinking you will protect yourself and all of the others here heroically when your neighbours have those objects as well. But when some of your neighbours bring forwards a F-16 they have built together from their objects, it's over forbyou individuals only having the pieces in your hand.

But if you take off the supplies form all, then you stand a chance for a fair fist-fight. :)

Sorry, this romantic ideal of individuals fighting off the evil as loners doesn't work here any more than it does in reality. The baddies work as a collective and they can decide on the spot with all the knowledgwe and communication between themselves how to use their votes. We can't.

As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you. Calm down, will you? If you're innocent we need your calm decision, not you proving how "decisive" you can be.

But you should actually convince us - well me at least - why what I said about your actions in the end of Day2 are not true to begin with. Getting angry or hurt is one way of trying to do it but I have seen such shows that this is not quite enough (remember Rikae back then really bringing all of us others to tears with her show - but many enough of us stood firm and lynched her, as the baddie she turned out to be).

EDIT: X'd with Izzy x2

A Little Green

04-17-2009, 02:39 PM

The baddies will probably kill those innocents with the most votes left by Nights (see Firefoot with ten votes). Also they would like to keep their votes to themselves if they need not use them - and they, unlike us - know when they need to use them.What you say makes sense in a way, but I think you are overlooking a very important thing. If the wolves all kept their bonus votes to themselves and Night-killed every innocent having bonus votes left, it wouldn't be right hard to identify them, would it?

Lynch those with ten votes - or create a general feeling that those having ten votes are the ones in the line for the gallows. Then the wolves need to discharge their votes and - especially if we get one toDay - then we may be able to breathe once more a little.

Those with ten votes are not an asset to the village, they are a threat. They may think in their individual potholes that they are the fighters for freedom but they are the harbringers of doom in many senses.

Just think there are three romantic heroes around with ten votes. One gets killed by Thurnigwethil and her/his ten extra votes are in the possession of the baddies the next Day. Then the two remaining ten-voters disagree with each other who's the wolf and vote different people. That's it. We lose. The wolves know to concentrate their votes on the "right target", we don't.I'm still not sure I get this point. If we kill someone today chiefly based on that person having 10 bonus votes left, and that person turns out to be innocent, then in what sort of situation does that leave us? The wolves are as well-off as ever, and the village has lost one of those who have more voting power left. Granted, villagers might not agree about who is guilty, but if we have innocents with bonus votes we'll at least have a chance of opposing the wolves on a decisive Day. If we go about lynching innocents with 10 bonus votes left, we don't have even that.

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 02:54 PM

++Brinn (+1)

Despite the 10 bonus still remaining I would not classify her voting 'safe.' She was the deciding vote for Nienna and voted in the midst of the madness yesterday for Sally.

The safest voters have been Formendacil, Shasta, and Greenie, who still have all 10 bonus and have also a squeaky clean record (meaning they've been staying out of the action).

Formendacil:
Day 1- Nilp
Day 2- Greenie

Shasta:
Day 1- Did not vote
Day 2- Formendacil

Greenie:
Day 1- for Agan but did not count
Day 2- Nogrod

Greenie had intentions of voting for the known innocent Agan, but by technicality it did not count. The placement was early, but that could just be because of an inability to be at the deadline. Are all early votes safe? (This isn't rhetorical, I really don't know)

Then Gwath and Sally who have all 10 bonus votes, but on Day 1 voted for the known innocent Nienna. They were the 'middle votes' in the Nienna bandwagon. On Day 2 neither voted. The question I have is would a wolf not vote? I don't know how Gwath and Sally play, but even in the situation yesterday would a wolf not cast a vote? They would know Kuru was innocent and I would imagine a wolf would just tack on votes in that situation.

Particularly Gwath who expressed a desire to save Nogrod and some suspicion of Kuru...if he was a wolf, why not tack on just a single vote?

Kent2010

04-17-2009, 03:00 PM

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 03:14 PM

What you say makes sense in a way, but I think you are overlooking a very important thing. If the wolves all kept their bonus votes to themselves and Night-killed every innocent having bonus votes left, it wouldn't be right hard to identify them, would it? Basically that's exactly what I'm after: I'm driving towards identifying them... :)

Are you for letting them to be concealed? :rolleyes:

And so, with pressure enough they would need to discard their votes as not to be identified... and we would be in less a danger.

Simple, but soo hard to do in practise.

But we really have this Day to stay with a chance to win this. Three wolves and a Grima with ten votes each (+ Thuringwethil with ten extra-votes) will just spell the end of this game already toMorrow.

I'm amazed how few of you seem to get this. It's the end, finito, finé, konéc, kaputt, das ende, slut, loppu... if we leave three to five people with ten votes after toDay and lynch an innocent.

Maybe it's then what we deserve as a "village"... :(

I'm still not sure I get this point. If we kill someone today chiefly based on that person having 10 bonus votes left, and that person turns out to be innocent, then in what sort of situation does that leave us?Bad one. We need to get a baddie toDay.

Granted, villagers might not agree about who is guilty, but if we have innocents with bonus votes we'll at least have a chance of opposing the wolves on a decisive Day. If we go about lynching innocents with 10 bonus votes left, we don't have even that.Yeah. Sadly we don't seem to have the luxury of just pointing out the actual baddie like that and then go at her/him collectively. But the baddies both know who they are with and they can PM all the time to adjust their tactics when the situations change.

And even if we had an innocent or two with ten extra votes the wolves can just wait how they vote and then PM a strategy to counter it with their annihiliatory number of votes they have.

Sorry if I feel like pressuring this but I really think this is a question of winning or losing.

No, I don't propose anything like "let's systematically give away an X number of votes". No. The wolves could hide too easily under that kind of common decision.

Let's keep up the feeling that those not ready to use their votes will be the ones from whom we'll pick our lynch and see what happens.

It doesn't exactly help the plan if you all come back here to disagree with it with your underlying concerns about your personal safety.

Let's make the threat real. Only then will the wolves need to consider using their votes - and thence lose some of their power.

Otherwise they will outwit us in no time.

You may think it's no problem as it's only Day3. Sorry, this might be decided on Day4.

That spells toMorrow.

A Little Green

04-17-2009, 03:17 PM

Are all early votes safe?Dunno - I'd say early voting is safe if in case you vote early even if you could be around at deadline. If you vote early because you just can't be around at deadline, however, I wouldn't call it safe voting. Safe voting, the way I think of it, is something you can choose, whereas the time zone you live in generally isn't.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 03:18 PM

To Sally.
We will see the result of the Vampire's vote sucking. It will be reflected in the bonus vote tally.

It may just be because it seems to be the current focus of attention.
Yet, I think we all give these Bonus Votes too much credit, and weight.
As if the three's decisions and world only revolve around how to better their situation with the BV's. They have Luthein and Finrod to worry about. As well as any other normal worries, of someone suspecting them and getting them lynched.
If LUthien discovers one of them, you think their BV's could save their mate; without exposing the other two? The longer LuThien is alive, I don't think it really matters how many BV's the three have - as long as LutHien has a smattering of innocents they know about. Then again if LuthIen is alive towards the end with the three, and a few others; who can really predict how many BV's the three and LuthiEn will have with them? No one can truly predict how each day will go, with BV's, Finrod, the three, and LuthieN.

Haha. That was totally for your benefit Kent. xD

X'd with Nog and Green.

satansaloser2005

04-17-2009, 03:23 PM

Usually, she is very confident in most every thing she says - or she appears supremely confident in her words. This game, she quite frequently self doubts and fishes.

Have you ever played with me? ;)

Okay, I know this is a bit silly but I'm going with my gut.

++Kent

Again, this is hopefully just a placeholder vote until I get back, but I'm actually getting some vibes from Kent and they're not so shiny.

Also, a list, though it's going, repeat going, to change. There are three baddies and a Grima so, if I had to parcel everyone into groups right now just based on what I'm feeling, here's how it would go.

Guilty
Kent
Lari
Izzy
Shasta

Innocent
Form
Brinn
Nog
Nilp
Fea
Green
Gwath

Again, this is just if I had to pick the four baddies, these would be my top choices at the moment based on....well, on a hunch, really, but hopefully it's a good one.

As an announcement in advance, if I'm up for lynch toDay (which wouldn't totally surprise me) and there is someone else on the block that I think is guilty, I will vote to save myself and use my bonus votes as necessary. I hope I don't have to because I'd rather have to come back and choose between the greater of two possible evils rather than a known innocent (me) and a possible/probable wolf, but as I've stated in other games, if I let myself be lynched without trying to fight back I'm doing a disservice to the village.

(Also, I can kill you with my brain. Also also, I just woke up from a nap and am leaving in half an hour, so's you all know.)

Will post this and see what's going on. In advance, x'd with everything since the post after Kent's vote.

Nogrod

04-17-2009, 03:23 PM

An addendum
If we kill someone today chiefly based on that person having 10 bonus votes leftNo! I'm not suggesting we should base our votes "chiefly" on the fact that s/he has ten votes left. I say we pick the most suspicious of the "ten-voters".

It's pretty hard to believe - if not totally impossible - that all the baddies would have used some of their extra-votes already. They would be lousy wolves indeed.

It's perfectly possible one wolf has used some of her/his extras but I would be very surprised if two had done that. I think they've had quite an easy ride this far so why would they have botherered - when most of you seem to oppose my scheme of forcing them to use their votes and there is a crowd to blend in...

satansaloser2005

04-17-2009, 03:25 PM

A Little Green

04-17-2009, 03:29 PM

Basically that's exactly what I'm after: I'm driving towards identifying them...

Are you for letting them to be concealed?No, I am not. You didn't seem to get my point. My point was that if the wolves all have their 10 bonus votes left they aren't exactly likely to go around Night-killing every innocent having as much bonus votes in order to stay concealed - especially if the general consensus is that anyone having all their bonus votes left is suspicious. Therefore, it might well be that the assumption your hypothesis is based on is invalid - and, as you philosophy teacher probably know, a hypothesis based on an invalid assumption is likely to be invalid too. :p

EDIT: x-ed with Sally, Nog and Sally

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 03:31 PM

Well yes, but why suck votes if you don't plan on using them?

X'd with Green.

Isabellkya

04-17-2009, 03:37 PM

Indeed I have played with you.

Forgive me for being blunt - but your lists looks like a load of crap with some sugar on it, made to look pretty but taste gross.

You say the list is going to change, then you say it is on a hunch which you hope is a good one. WHy would you want the good hunch to change?

satansaloser2005

04-17-2009, 03:41 PM

I am wondering though what would happen if, for instance....

Erm....actually I won't ask it, since it's a bit of a game mechanics question. Blast.

Anyway, I want to redo my list when I get a chance, but I know I won't have time right now. Here's a couple observations. Take them however you wish, kids.

Brinn makes me giggle, but in a 'I know how you feel, you poor girl' sort of way. I really don't want to see her go toDay because while it's possible she's guilty (which is a possibility for all of you, so that really means nothing, dang it) I'd like to hear more from her so I can get a better read on the girl.

Kent still makes me uneasy, just in general. I don't know what exactly it is, but a lot of the things he's said have made me uneasy and while I don't want to kill him just to find out what he is I'm not going to complain if he ends up dead at the end of the Day, because I keep smelling a Kent....erm, rat. ;)

Nog seems genuine and yet at the same time I know I can't read him, so when I trust Nog completely he's generally got something up his sleeve.

I actually just looked through Izzy's posts (was looking for a quote which in the end I don't think she even said, alas) and think she may be sliding down to my innocent list. We don't exactly see eye to eye, but that doesn't mean she's evil, and after seeing a couple things she's said I'll have to give her some more thought.

Aaaand that's all I've got time for presently.

The rest I don't know right now, or at least don't have time to talk about.