Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nienna]

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Zil is the only reason you suspect me because I suspect you? This seems a bit flawed.

X-ed with two Nerwens and a Shasta

[Nerwen]

Look, I hate to leave you all so soon, but I have to go and tune my lute.

Lynch:

++Legate of Amon Lanc.
Yes, you put up a wonderful defence and all– but still, I think we need to see what you are.

Guard:

++Inziladun.

Because he jumped on my vote on Kit, and he's been creepy toDay. (I'm for Guarding suspicious people if there's no-one better, at least while there are still four wolves around.)

EDIT:X'd with Nienna.

[Nerwen]

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Exactly– it's not like we're irrevocably committing ourselves to doing this for the rest of the game, which seems to be Legate's assumption. (He said it wasn't at one point, but actually his whole argument does seem to rest on it.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

But your argument also nullifies it, doesn't it?
Okay, not sure in which way.
Only if the guarding (and subsequent lack of a kill) was the only reason for the lynching.
And speaking of my case then, was there any other? At least I got the feeling yesterDay that most people thought that I am likely innocent or okay if nothing else, after all that's where these guard votes originally came from. In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.

As I said, your examples assume that no wolf is ever Guarded.

I am aware of it and I said it already, but that's the point of examples, isn't it? I said that it won't work like that in reality in at least two posts, of which one case was when I replied to you saying the same already once, so I am not going to repeat it anymore. You should just understand the point, I am not saying that it works like that all the time. But it's just an explanation of what it means for the Wolves, that it's not a loss for them AT ALL to forgo a kill on a Night when an innocent is Guarded (emphasise for you). Which is just what happened to me, by the way. Like I already said.

Anyway. I am going probably to have a break for a while, as I have said what I could right now to the topic, and unless somebody asks something specifically new about it, I would leave it be. Everybody can read any of my posts, if he or she is more interested in the details or if it seems unclear to them.

My MAIN points are as follows.

1) The Village should heed this (the things I said) if I die. (That doesn't mean, though, switching to the other extreme and letting it just a free ride for everybody. But the Wolves are pressured, and will have to do something soon, unless you just confirm to their rules.)
2) I am innocent, and saying that it makes no sense for the WWs to forgo one kill in case that I am innocent is faulty, as if I am lynched, then they didn't lose anything by that. (3 dead innocents and no dead Wolf by any chance, from their point of view they know whether the Guarded one is innocent, so they can choose based on that)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Well yea, I see that. Though, could you not decide that just THEORETICALLY? Because you would realise, even if you think of it just theoretically (not practically) that you CANNOT trust the guarding results. Heck, we already said as much even yesterDay. The only thing this lynch proves is whether you were right or wrong in MY case, nothing more and nothing less. Next time it happens, you would have to do it again. And in such case, until you guard a Wolf, nothing will change. And see my above examples.

[Nerwen]

And speaking of my case then, was there any other? At least I got the feeling yesterDay that most people thought that I am likely innocent or okay if nothing else, after all that's where these guard votes originally came from. In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.

*shrugs* It's an experiment, Legate. And actually some voted to Guard you in part because you seemed somewhat suspicious, and they wanted to neutralise a possible fourth wolf.

Look– if you're innocent, your death should give us some leads, at least. I'll certainly be looking very hard at people who pushed for it. Besides, don't panic– there's a lot of talk, but you've only had one vote so far.

Farewell, gentle villagers! I'll return to serenade you all if time permits.

I suggest we start discussing other possible wolf candidates. There are four wolves, after all.

EDIT: X'd with Legate.

[Inziladun]

Zil is the only reason you suspect me because I suspect you? This seems a bit flawed.

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.

And thanks for the guard, Nerwen. It would help me sleep, lacking a tuneful lullaby from you. ;)

[Nienna]

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.

And thanks for the guard, Nerwen. It would help me sleep, lacking a tuneful lullaby from you. ;)

I'm sorry maybe I just read more into your post than you were intending. It just seemed as if you were accusing me of wolvery.

[Nogrod]

One sane point among all the people is this, the first sentence, and also the continued unfolded thought after that. It comes from the village fool - what does it say, Tolkien's point about those who seem to be the fools being sometimes the ones who are actually wiser?That comes from Shakespeare the least... probably from some Greek cynics or something... :)

But yes. I'm only at post #225... Sorry.

But what I've read so far I'd bet a lot that either Legate or Wilwa is a wolf. I'll try to be back as soon as possible (reading through the rest and having a late dinner).

[Nerwen]

But the Wolves are pressured

Pressured? With four wolves and no Seer? I don't get it. (You'd almost think one of the wolves was on the block or something.;) )

Seriously, I suppose you are referring to the prospective accumulation of known innocents? Well, yes, they're a threat to the wolves, but they can't be defended by the Ranger forever. And whenever the Guard has to join in the defence of a known innocent, why, then the wolves can't frame anyone by missing a kill.

[Nerwen]

But what I've read so far I'd bet a lot that either Legate or Wilwa is a wolf. I'll try to be back as soon as possible (reading through the rest and having a late dinner).

I said this already: if Legate is innocent, the missed kill doesn't make much sense (however he tries to explain it) unless Wilwa is a baddie. It's something to keep in mind.

[Nerwen]

Now I really have to go. Good luck.

[Boromir88]

Crimy! You're telling me I have to go through all of this...ugh :rolleyes:

[Boromir88]

And before I do my thorough read through:

I'm sorry maybe I just read more into your post than you were intending. It just seemed as if you were accusing me of wolvery.~Nienna
You should note too that Inzil has been acting that way towards others, which is why I'm suspicious of him...

To me...
Well, interesting turns of events, to say the least. They failed to guard you, Boro, so I trust you didn't have a hand in poor Mnemo's death!

And to Hakon...
Speaking of Hakon, has he been here at all toDay?
Yes he has Inzil, and what's the point if he hasn't?

[Brinniel]

Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon:

Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes.

Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote.

Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me.

Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious.

wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence.

Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious:

Sally
Inziladun
Pitchwife
Lommy
wilwa
Nerwen
Boromir

[satansaloser2005]

Ack, my head hurts from all the possibilities!

Oh, just noticed this.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

Erm, really? Didn't give a reason, did I? Of course I didn't, how silly of me. Not like I explained why her guard vote made her suspicious to me. Why would I think I said that? It's not like it's in post #115 or anything. :rolleyes::p


I think the wolves would be silly to not make two kills while they still can, but I also see Legate's point about a good frame job. The problem with his theory, however, is that if we strike gold and kill a wolf they can't make any more double kills, and as some others (Wilwa maybe? Heck if I remember) have pointed out it wouldn't be that hard to kill Legate at some point anyway. Still, I'm torn between lynching him and thinking it's simply too easy. Legate, you're not the ranger, are you? ;)


Catching up again and then maybe getting some sleep. Can't shake the bad vibes from Wilwa, but at the same time not sure why I have them. Maybe she'll get my guard vote, with the same theory as the Legate guard yesterDay.


Also, where's Nessa and Alona? (And Hakon?)

[Boromir88]

Too easy?

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh? :rolleyes:

I remember Mac in Brinn's last game after claiming (successfully) to be the Ranger, but still not dying that night passionately, and in some ways convincingly, argued that he was being set up as an easy lynch. Still didn't take away from the fact that it was a bogus defense because if he wasn't a wolf and declared he was the Ranger, the wolves would have killed him, but they didn't, ergo Mac had to be one of the wolves.

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

And now to other things

[Nienna]

A list:

Evil:
Legate
Zil

Leaning Evil:
Sally
Nilp

Leaning Innocent:
Brinn
Boro
Shasta
Nog

Innocent:
Nerwen

No idea/haven’t posted:
Everyone else

[satansaloser2005]

Very interesting example, Boro. As I remember it, you've experience as claiming the ranger as well, haven't you? ;)



Anyway, let's just say that if Legate does turn out to be innocent I'm going to feel awful. I think it would be stupid of us to let a Leg-Wolf get away so easily though.


What are you all thinking about guard-wise? I actually have a feeling about Brinn, but I'm not sure. I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate) but we won't know until Sundown if he's furry so we can't make those sort of connections until toMorrow.


EDIT: x'd with Nienna. Aha, that was the other person I thought might be a likely Night kill. Again, just a hunch.

[satansaloser2005]

Heh. Watch, I have some sort of mad power in that, instead of saving someone, my guard vote condemns that person. I mean as far as I know I'm an ordo, but Steve could be up to anything. I'm rather afraid now. :eek:

[Boromir88]

Very interesting example, Boro. As I remember it, you've experience as claiming the ranger as well, haven't you?~sally
I've got experience at claiming lots of things. :eek: :p

[Nogrod]

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night? :)

Well, were you an innocent Legate you'd have thought about it. So were you afraid of stating it as it would seem like a desperate move on your side? I mean the chances of a ranger-save this early in this big village sure are minuscule - but that is a chance anyway and as an innocent you could have tried us to think about it as well? But as a wolf you passed it?

But anyway. Kudos for your brave effort - and by times you made me waver with my judgement. But anyway it looks like you focus on things that do not look like you're honestly defending your innocent self but are trying something else.

Like...

You make a big point how it would be disadvantageous to us to robotically lynch all the "protected" while the wolves would restrain their kills... sure. And then you kind of add that well, of course we might not do that - which is so true. But at the same time the whole argument you elaborated in long posts to defend you collapses. :rolleyes:

Also your argument about the wolves controlling the village are a bit far-fetched. We get "known innocents" only so far when there are two Night kills eg. four wolves. And even that knowledge is shadowed by the possibility of a ranger-save or the wolves bluffing (not that I believe in the second one, it's just against any odds they would choose: too little gain from too much a cost).

In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

[Hakon]

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

[Brinniel]

Erm, really? Didn't give a reason, did I? Of course I didn't, how silly of me. Not like I explained why her guard vote made her suspicious to me. Why would I think I said that? It's not like it's in post #115 or anything.
Sorry, I missed that post...which is easy to do when you have to catch up on two and half pages from the previous Day. So you listed a bunch of scenarios for why she voted to guard Hakon if she's a wolf. But if you were so suspicious of her almost two hours before deadline, why wait until exactly deadline to vote her? I understand wanting to wait a little before immediately voting the first suspicious person, but waiting until it's almost past deadline is certainly pushing it.

And why so many tally posts? Yes, they look helpful, but you posted an awful lot of them and really we don't need a new tally every time someone votes. I think your time could've been better spent looking at other players.

[Hakon]

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night? :)

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

I will mention that there was a save.

The above quote was Eönwë's answer to the question of weather it would be made clear that it was a ranger save or not.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think the wolves would be silly to not make two kills while they still can, but I also see Legate's point about a good frame job. The problem with his theory, however, is that if we strike gold and kill a wolf they can't make any more double kills, and as some others (Wilwa maybe? Heck if I remember) have pointed out it wouldn't be that hard to kill Legate at some point anyway. Still, I'm torn between lynching him and thinking it's simply too easy. Legate, you're not the ranger, are you? ;)
It could have been hard to kill me later, like I said in some of my first posts this afternoon (I think it was my first after I returned), because the Ranger and the NG could take switches in guarding me, if I was a known innocent and the village decided that I am valuable enough.

And if I were the Ranger, I would have probably said so by now.

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.
But is it not true that NG can be used for people to be framed? Anybody can see that it's true, that it can be done (and I alone, and four Wolves somewhere around here, know that it IS being done right now), and the Wolves could have thought of that regardless of who said it in the first place (or if McC is one of them, then no problem of course, but thinking of that, why would he say it aloud on the thread if he were one), or even if some people would not have thought of it themselves, they could have thought of it once it's been said aloud.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh? :rolleyes:
Like I said, with all humility, if making two kills would mean making me a known innocent, who could be theoretically protected for the rest of the game (as long as the Ranger stays alive), I can imagine that I am not one of the most desireable people in the Wolves' eyes to get that role, the same like for example you or Nogrod or some others would be. Or is it your wolf pride resounding here, boiling inside you to show that you are not afraid of me at all, because that was not your reason to frame me?

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.
Of course that's "the only one defense I have left", as that's defense against the only thing I have been accused of. What kind of a logic is that, Boro?

[satansaloser2005]

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over weather we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

Does anyone else think this is funny? "There are other people you could lynch, but you're all trying to lynch someone you think is a wolf." Erm....okay?

Also....whether, not weather. Sorry, English major brain kicking in again. Anyway.

Sorry, I missed that post...which is easy to do when you have to catch up on two and half pages from the previous Day. So you listed a bunch of scenarios for why she voted to guard Hakon if she's a wolf. But if you were so suspicious of her almost two hours before deadline, why wait until exactly deadline to vote her? I understand wanting to wait a little before immediately voting the first suspicious person, but waiting until it's almost past deadline is certainly pushing it.

And why so many tally posts? Yes, they look helpful, but you posted an awful lot of them and really we don't need a new tally every time someone votes. I think your time could've been better spent looking at other players.

Fair enough. Heh, I figured you missed it, hence the ':p'. If I remember correctly I was trying to stay awake until DL so I was admittedly doing busywork. Besides, knowing my luck I'd get behind and forget to update something. And I waited so long because, frankly, I didn't want to change my mind at the last second and have to use my one mod-given retraction, so I saved the vote until I was sure I wasn't going to change my mind. (And actually, the lynch was already decided when I voted, because I was pretty sure Alona/Nessa weren't going to pop in. I suppose I could have been switched to Wilwa [or someone else, had a case been good enough] had the circumstances been right, which is why I held it so long; I wanted to keep my options open, so to speak.)



EDIT: x'd with Hakon and Leggo-my-Leg-O

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A note...

Anyway, let's just say that if Legate does turn out to be innocent I'm going to feel awful. I think it would be stupid of us to let a Leg-Wolf get away so easily though.


What are you all thinking about guard-wise? I actually have a feeling about Brinn, but I'm not sure. I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate) but we won't know until Sundown if he's furry so we can't make those sort of connections until toMorrow.

=> A SLIP!!!!????

She corrected it, but she wrote it nevertheless. "I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)". Well, Freudian slip? You know that you SHOULD write that you are not certain if I am a Wolf or not, because it's not known yet, but you write it as if assuming that I am actually NOT! As if assuming that after dusk it will became known that there are still four of them! Why???

[Boromir88]

What kind of a logic is that, Boro?~Legate
If I recall correctly, the NG was not the reason you were found suspicious yesterday.

++Legate

Guard.

++Nerwen

Me really likes her approach to everything so far.

I'm voting now because I may be able to rush back to my apartment and say a little more before the DL, but there's a good chance I won't be able to.

[Thinlómien]

I find this Legate thing even more interesting than before for a simple reason: what he has been desperately trying to convince us of is actually very close to the theory I mentioned having about him being alive and said I'd tell you later about. It puzzles me a bit that he came up with it too - I was kind of thinking "if he's smart and innocent, he'll say it aloud and I'll know he's not a wolf" but that logic is a bit faulty, no doubt.

Anyhow, to me his defence does make sense. By keeping their kills at one the wolves are, for sure, losing an advantage they have (two kills) but they're also preventing us from using a very powerful advantage: every guard vote with two kills is a seer dream shared by all the village (so it can't die with any single person). If there are two kills, we've guarded an innocent, if there's just one, we've guarded a wolf. Simple as that. I was hesitant to point this out in case the wolves hadn't realised it this far, but with Legate shouting all that to the world (for a believable reson if he's innocent and no further harm done if he's a wolf), that's not adding much to what has been said.

Therefore, Legate being alive does not mean he's guilty. If I as a wolf would have thought as far on Night 2 as I as an innocent did on Day2 (which is more probable than probable) I would have told my pack to abstain from the second kill. And because I believe I'm not the smartest of all the people in the village, a wolf must've have thought of what I just thought of too.

But I'm not claiming Legate's innocent - he could still, according to a simpler explanation of things, be a wolf. But that doesn't make what he and I have said about the power of night guarding as a method of revealing stuff any less true.


edit: xed with Legate, Sally and Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

I think he meant the last Night of the game, dear, not necessarily last Night.

It could have been hard to kill me later, like I said in some of my first posts this afternoon (I think it was my first after I returned), because the Ranger and the NG could take switches in guarding me, if I was a known innocent and the village decided that I am valuable enough.

And if I were the Ranger, I would have probably said so by now.

Heh. I was kidding about the ranger thing, of course; that would be rotten luck though. And fair enough, but if the ranger is forced out, what then? (I'm hoping it won't happen, but if the ranger is out....well, no offense dear, but if you're innocent you're dispensible compared to them.)

=> A SLIP!!!!????

She corrected it, but she wrote it nevertheless. "I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)". Well, Freudian slip? You know that you SHOULD write that you are not certain if I am a Wolf or not, because it's not known yet, but you write it as if assuming that I am actually NOT! As if assuming that after dusk it will became known that there are still four of them! Why???

Nice try, lovely, but no. I'm just leaving in the possibility that you may not be a wolf and thus we'll have to worry about the real fourth baddie. You know, you really do want to twist my words, don't you? Nassssty boy....:(


EDIT: x'd with Boro and Lommie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night?

Well, were you an innocent Legate you'd have thought about it. So were you afraid of stating it as it would seem like a desperate move on your side? I mean the chances of a ranger-save this early in this big village sure are minuscule - but that is a chance anyway and as an innocent you could have tried us to think about it as well? But as a wolf you passed it?
As noted above, it was announced a loooong time ago that Ranger save will be mentioned. Yesterday, I believe it was sally who asked about it.

But anyway. Kudos for your brave effort - and by times you made me waver with my judgement. But anyway it looks like you focus on things that do not look like you're honestly defending your innocent self but are trying something else.
If you are innocent (of which I am not very sure right now), you will be appreciating my brave effort a lot more if I die, I guess, but a bit too late at least from my point of view.

You make a big point how it would be disadvantageous to us to robotically lynch all the "protected" while the wolves would restrain their kills... sure. And then you kind of add that well, of course we might not do that - which is so true. But at the same time the whole argument you elaborated in long posts to defend you collapses.
And what should I do? Lie? Or say that the village indeed is a group of robots? (At least people like you - if you are not a Wolf - now ARE. Sorry.)

Also your argument about the wolves controlling the village are a bit far-fetched. We get "known innocents" only so far when there are two Night kills eg. four wolves.
And you mean i.e. once again. (That's what you get for accusing me :p ;) Hm, I am actually being nice...)

And even that knowledge is shadowed by the possibility of a ranger-save or the wolves bluffing (not that I believe in the second one, it's just against any odds they would choose: too little gain from too much a cost).
Not on a Night when an innocent is protected. And certainly not on first Night when an innocent is protected. Surely a player as reasonable as you must see that.

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!
Oh true, I forgot about that. Preparing grounds already for toDay, were you?

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

Oh, sadly. Too much is at stake. Getting the first Wolf as late as possible is necessary for the four of you, all sportmanship aside.

[satansaloser2005]

Actually, rereading Noggie's post, he did mean last Night as in last Night. Silly me.

[Nogrod]

I think Hakon speaks sense and we should think about other things toDay as well. And thank's for clarifying that narration-ruling I had missed.

Well first...

What Brinn said about Sally's actions at the end of Day1 I do find noteworthy - Sally's explanations notwithstanding. Hanging around minute by minute but not making even a short comment on her intentions is downright creepy - and lupine to me. It's interrsting that even if the wolves basically know that their leaning back around the DL just watching things happen and being careful not to make any possibly meddlesome moves is the most suspicious thing there is they still do it time and time again.

Not that I think Sally is a wolf for sure, but she has crawled quite high on my suspicions.

EDIT: X'd with a host to the previous page...

[Pitchwife]

Hi everybody, I'm back.
I must say, I like both sides of the discussion between wilwa and Legate. Both are trying to clarify the implications of the Night Guard thing, and their disagreeing with each other doesn't per se make either more guilty than the other.
I'm truly puzzled about Legate at the moment. As I said before, I found his #153 yesterday looking more innocentish than some of those before, and his arguments toDay are well reasoned, even if they happen to be in his own defense. There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.
But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
That method would become useless, of course, if we happen to have the unbelievable luck of lynching a wolf toDay (instead of our Ranger or Hunter, or a plain ordo). It might be safer to lynch him toDay and lament him toMorrow, if he turns out to be innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Legate, think of it this way. If you are innocent and we lynch you toDay, you'll help us figure out exactly how gutsy these wolves are (as in, they wasted a kill just to frame you). Personally I would be upset at being lynched as an ordo (as I'm sure most of us would be) but if it helped the village figure out the plans of the wolves I wouldn't argue so much. I understand you defending yourself but it seems off to me. If you're dying toDay and you're an innocent leave something more for the village than just self-defense.

Of course, if you're a wolf we'll dance over your grave and giggle like mad. Just in case you didn't see that one coming already. :rolleyes:

[Hakon]

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

++Legate

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

[satansaloser2005]

Pitch, I assume you mean you think the ranger could guard him, right? Because we can't pick the same person two Days in a row.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

every guard vote with two kills is a seer dream shared by all the village (so it can't die with any single person).

Hear, hear!

But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
Well that was something I wanted to give as an option, but of course that's just an option, I can see what you don't like about that. Anyway, it will be interesting in any case to see what happens toNight and for the person guarded toNight - as you can't Guard me toNight, consequently. (The WWs could theoretically kill me if I stay alive, and if the Ranger doesn't protect me - which I would not recommend btw, as I am not really much sure if they would want to kill me - and if yes, then no worse than any other kill, and the Ranger can maximize the defending capabilities of the village.)

EDIT: I keep just x-ing all the way... next!

[A Little Green]

I'm sorry, thought I'd have more time and more energy, right now I'm fighting to keep my eyes open so I won't be around much longer. So, my promised list will not be coming toDay after all, it'll be there toMorrow though in case I'm still alive. A quick comment, though, just in case I'm not: if Legate turns out innocent, I think Nerwen and Sally might both deserve a closer look, Sally for what Legate pointed out and Nerwen for this:
Guard:

++Inziladun.

Because he jumped on my vote on Kit, and he's been creepy toDay. (I'm for Guarding suspicious people if there's no-one better, at least while there are still four wolves around.)

Still, the strongest case I have is

++ Legate

As for my guard vote, I'll go with my top suspect apart from Leggy:

++ guard Nogrod

Also because he's very valuable if innocent.

Good Night and sorry once more for lack of contribution toDay.


EDIT: x-ed since the beginning of this page

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Legate
Boro-->Legate (2)
Hakon-->Legate (3)
Greenie-->Legate (4)


Guard
Nilp-->Wilwa
Nerwen-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog


Wow. Somehow I thought there were more votes out than that. Anyway, a nap for me and then I'll be back. :)

EDIT: x'd since my last
EDIT#2: added in Greenie's vote

[Nogrod]

Personally I would be upset at being lynched as an ordo (as I'm sure most of us would be) but if it helped the village figure out the plans of the wolves I wouldn't argue so much. I understand you defending yourself but it seems off to me.In a sense I agree with Sally here. Well at least I tend to act the contrary when I see that the village is going after an innocent me for real. Then my thought is: "well, I'll show you what worth of an innocent you lynch" and then try to make my best to make considered judgements of all the players so that the others could look at them the next Day as "well intentioned" considerations - and sure lament the loss... :rolleyes: And I don't think we are so different in that regard...

I mean I'm afraid your arguing is not going to change your status here. If someone else comes with good points on your behalf things might get different and make people reconsider. I'm looking forwards to anyone taking a stance in favour of Legate. And I mean it, no trap involved... I just started suspecting him already yesterDay and I'm quite stuck with suspecting him at the moment.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate, think of it this way. If you are innocent and we lynch you toDay, you'll help us figure out exactly how gutsy these wolves are (as in, they wasted a kill just to frame you). Personally I would be upset at being lynched as an ordo (as I'm sure most of us would be) but if it helped the village figure out the plans of the wolves I wouldn't argue so much. I understand you defending yourself but it seems off to me. If you're dying toDay and you're an innocent leave something more for the village than just self-defense.

Of course, if you're a wolf we'll dance over your grave and giggle like mad. Just in case you didn't see that one coming already. :rolleyes:

Oh, having really bad conscience about framing me in such a nasty way, my dear sally? Don't worry, I don't take it as badly as it may perhaps seem.

But as for leaving something else for the village than self-defense, I hope I did, as that was actually my original point. Well, if I am lynched, it will be proven even with a practical example.

But it would be just better if you catch one, or more of these WWs fast.

And as for toDay's voting, are there some people willing to vote wilwa, or perhaps Nogrod, or somebody like that? (Boro and sally come to my mind, though it's not that hot.)

Brinn, whom are you going to vote? And on what grounds?

EDIT: x-ed after my last

[Pitchwife]

Pitch, I assume you mean you think the ranger could guard him, right? Because we can't pick the same person two Days in a row.

Sorry, forgot about that, thanks for reminding me. The Ranger shouldn't protect him, of course - that would merely prevent him being killed himself if innocent, not killing others if a wolf. So it would seem our only means to find out the truth is indeed to lynch him.

[satansaloser2005]

Legate regrets to inform you all that he will not be around for the remainder of the Day. He's gone fishing. :rolleyes:


And if I was framing you yes, I might feel a bit bad. But since that's not the case I have no shame. And why are we playing talk tennis? You can't force me to make a 'wolf slip', dear Legate, because as you know I'm not a wolf.


Taking my nap now. Might analyze someone when I get back, I just don't know who yet.


EDIT: x'd with Pitch. Yeah, I momentarily wondered the same thing and then decided it'd be a waste anyway so not to bother. Also, I have 2,222 posts. This excites me! :D

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And if I was framing you yes, I might feel a bit bad. But since that's not the case I have no shame. And why are we playing talk tennis? You can't force me to make a 'wolf slip', dear Legate, because as you know I'm not a wolf.

That was a bit rude after all you said before. Suddenly turning 180° once we have clear conscience of a nassty frame and are being accused, are we?

[satansaloser2005]

That was a bit rude after all you said before. Suddenly turning 180° once we have clear conscience of a nassty frame and are being accused, are we?

All's fair in love and Werewolf.:Merisu:

And I'm not being accused of anything worth responding to (as in the accusations themselves, not you, dear) which is why I made the above statement. Hence, 'talk 'tennis'. Although I've always preferred ping pong.


Again, to bed with me. I'll be back shortly (I hope) and will analyze somebody, as well as not responding to Legate's attempts to bait me into making myself look suspicious. ;)

[Thinlómien]

I don't think lynching Legate will prove anything. Whatever he is, wolves could have taken any stance in this debate and if he's innocent them leaving him alive doesn't prove anything either because at least in my opinion that doesn't even point at certain people.

But it looks like we don't have any better suspects either. One vote for Inzil, eh? There's something fishy about him (something I wanted to comment on but I forgot), but probably not quite enough to merit a vote.

Argh.

Well, I guess toDay can be analysed after it's over, and before that it will be difficult to say what stuff means. Although, like I said, Legate's death is hardly going to prove anything so we'll just have to look at people's general behaviour and theories.

I get the feeling I'm rambling a bit. And besides, not even making 100% sense. Legate's death will leave clues about his fellows (from day1 behaviour) or prove we're a silly bunch of lemmings.

I kind of feel like voting someone else and then blaming you others when Legate turns out innocent. Or then just saying "I did suspect him too but I didn't want to be a lemming" when he turns out guilty.

ARGH.

I confess, I'm tired and confused. And everybody's ignoring my point, which makes me suspect it either doesn't make any sense, I shouldn't have said it aloud or I'm surrounded by a pack of wolves and cobblers.

Off to voting and bed soon.


edit: xed with Legate and Sally

[Nogrod]

Well then Wilwa...

Now first of all I must confess that I feel bad making this kind of a suspicion but I think that I need to voice it.

She has been too good... (I know she's an intelligent person but her dedication to make soo accurate points has been just overwhelming toDay)

What I mean is that she made an elaborate argument - citations and all - arguing that the wolves thought Mnemo was the seer's dream. And it was a good case indeed. It was indeed so good a case it felt it had been thought of by some very thorough and intelligent wolves for the last 24 hours - ending up with killing Mnemo for exactly those reasons while we others slept.

And what bothers me there is that her argument tries to show that we did not only lose our seer but also her first dream was lost the last Night. So let's just forget about the chance that Kit might have tried to hint at someone being actually her first dreamed innocent (the one she protected could be an obvious hint on Day1 when she did not foresee she would be killed or scrutinised more than others fex.)?

Other than that Wilwa has been most considerate person and one if continuing like that would be a great asset to us if innocent. But somehow I can't believe for a moment both her and Legate are innocents. So if Legate turns out innocent for some reason I'd be looking at Wilwa the first thing toMorrow.

[Inziladun]

I have mixed feelings about the Legate affair. It does seem a bit too easy having him cold at this stage, and his self-defense in my eyes really has been admirable, but I really don't see any way to be sure of him than with his lynching.
Lommy makes a good point in that regardless of Legate's status, there could be wolves on any side of the argument, as this has been the main point of discussion here today with a lot said.

Not sure who to go for just yet.

[Nogrod]

I don't think lynching Legate will prove anything. Whatever he is, wolves could have taken any stance in this debate and if he's innocent them leaving him alive doesn't prove anything either because at least in my opinion that doesn't even point at certain people.It will not prove anything in regards to pointing at other wolves for sure - but if he's a wolf it will take off the double-killing sword from the top of our heads...

I confess, I'm tired and confused. And everybody's ignoring my point, which makes me suspect it either doesn't make any sense, I shouldn't have said it aloud or I'm surrounded by a pack of wolves and cobblers.If you mean that "wolves will happily kill just one every Night while they have chances at killing two" -theory I must disagree with it. I see the point of accumulating innocents - but then again they can harvest us two by Night and after there are two "known innocents" they can start bringing the numbers down (with a risk though) - and anyway; the chances that the ranger and all four wolves are alive on Day4 or something where this might start to bite is quite small.

And e en if we might try to follow a plan or a pattern of berhaviour you should know it rarely happens - some people do not have time to read the thread, some have RL problems and can't vote, some have independent minds and don't follow the others whatever the arguments... so any long-time plans are doomed to fail anyway. Or have you seen any that would have been succesful?

[Boromir88]

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.~Hakon
She won't, she's having serious laptop issues because of a nasty trojan and I don't think she'll be able to come back, which means it's up to the Mayor with what he wants to do.

What Brinn said about Sally's actions at the end of Day1 I do find noteworthy - Sally's explanations notwithstanding. Hanging around minute by minute but not making even a short comment on her intentions is downright creepy - and lupine to me.~Nogrod
I don't think so, it strikes me as a very sally thing to do. I don't know if it was really necessary to do it after every single vote, but I can tell you it was certainly nice as a mod to get the vote tallies as the DL was closing down, instead of scrolling through pages to gather all the votes while constantly checking the time and making sure the game closes on time.

[Thinlómien]

Mmmh.

Do what you will, lemmings, I'll go to sleep.

I'm not convinced of Legate's guilt like almost all you others seem to be, but then again, I guess you can't help lynching him and I have to admit that won't make me too sad even if he's innocent. Everybody would talk about him for the rest of the game anyway.

++Inziladun

Just because I like Nilp more than the rest of you. Speaking of which:

++guard Nilp

Good night! (And please, think about what I said about guard votes as seer dreams. It does make a lot of sense.)


edit: xed with Zil (who, ironically, started to look more innocent to me), Nogrod (whom I disagree with and who does not understand me - I never said we should follow any plan, I only said the wolves may be following one) and Boro (who doesn't give me any of the famous vibes yet...)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And what bothers me there is that her argument tries to show that we did not only lose our seer but also her first dream was lost the last Night. So let's just forget about the chance that Kit might have tried to hint at someone being actually her first dreamed innocent (the one she protected could be an obvious hint on Day1 when she did not foresee she would be killed or scrutinised more than others fex.)?

That's actually a good point (both about the kind of covering, or missing the details about the dream, and the one about Kit possibly putting some significance to her guard-vote. She at least certainly seemed not to have had any suspect, though she may as well just have stayed put totally, but not sure about that). As you mentioned it now, I think it is worth thinking about for the future.

[McCaber]

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

If you mean that "wolves will happily kill just one every Night while they have chances at killing two" -theory I must disagree with it. I see the point of accumulating innocents - but then again they can harvest us two by Night and after there are two "known innocents" they can start bringing the numbers down (with a risk though) - and anyway; the chances that the ranger and all four wolves are alive on Day4 or something where this might start to bite is quite small.

Or harvest us two by Night and Day together, with the result of having no known innocent at all.

Two night kills + one lynch at Day = 3 dead people, one of which may be a Wolf
One night kill + framed innocent lynch at Day = 2 dead people, none of which may be a Wolf.

(Like I mentioned already too many times.)

Anyway, the idea was what should we do NOW, the same as what the Wolves decided to do NOW. When the situation changes, we start to act differently too, I mean, that's a logic so obvious that it makes no sense even to mention it. Even a one-year old child acts according to that (or even a small molecular cell, for that matter).

Anyway... enough of that already. I am going to wait for a while yet and see. I may as well vote for guarding Nilp, too, or somebody who may be a Wolf, if there are many people voting him. And as for lynch, I guess I'll just really see.

[Nienna]

Sorry I've had to skim the last bunch of posts but I must be off to help pick out furniture before the shops close.

++Legate - for obvious reasons

++ guard Nerwen - because she is the only one so far who I trust even a little bit

[wilwarin538]

...
She has been too good... (I know she's an intelligent person but her dedication to make soo accurate points has been just overwhelming toDay)

What I mean is that she made an elaborate argument - citations and all - arguing that the wolves thought Mnemo was the seer's dream. And it was a good case indeed. It was indeed so good a case it felt it had been thought of by some very thorough and intelligent wolves for the last 24 hours - ending up with killing Mnemo for exactly those reasons while we others slept.

....

Other than that Wilwa has been most considerate person and one if continuing like that would be a great asset to us if innocent. But somehow I can't believe for a moment both her and Legate are innocents. So if Legate turns out innocent for some reason I'd be looking at Wilwa the first thing toMorrow.

Well. I have played a ton of WW games, like almost 20 I think. I almost always just post an average amount and contribute enough to not get suspicion (no matter my role), but not enough for my contribution to really stand out as being really useful. Now this may very well be my last game for a while (depending on what my school will be like when it starts next week). So I made a deal with myself that no matter what my role I would participate more then I ever have and try to be useful, instead of just floating casually through or not doing much at all.

This, I'm assuming, is why I'm getting suspicion. The whole analysing and contributing alot thing is a new move for me, so I'm not really used to it. If I was guilty I would not be doing this, because I have been bad many times and have always acted the same way as a baddie, and it's usually worked out extremely well for me. So I'm not gonna start changing something that's worked for me in the past.

And about the Kit analyses. I'll admit that I did start that a few hours before the Day started. I wanted to start off strong and wanted to be prepared incase I was still alive. Plus yesterday was my day off and I had absolutely nothing to do, so I figured this would be a good use of my time.

Anyway, I'm not trying to get all defensive, I just want it to be clear that all I'm trying to do is be helpful, cause in most games I haven't been overly useful, and I wanted this possible last game of mine to be different. Just not used to the whole useful thing, I'm usually just more occupied with trying to stay alive as long as possible. :rolleyes:

Now, onto more important stuff.

Every time I re-read everything Legate says he makes more and more sense to me. I see the merit that his ideas have. I don't think they're as likely as some other possibilities, but I do really respect the work he's put into them. I do however still think that lynching him would get us further along, if he's guilty (which I think is more probable) then that's awesome, if he happens to be innocent then it provides us with a better idea of what sort of wolves we're dealing with, and we can try to figure out who would have been more likely to agree/come up with such a risky bluff. I'm seeing that the latter is more possible then I originally thought it was, but I don't think it's as likely, so I'm willing to take the risk. Besides, if we did lynch someone else instead we would just be back to wondering what to do with Legate tomorrow (not to mention we could accidently kill another gifted), and we wouldn't really have accomplished to much regarding that subject. So it's our best bet really, despite the risk.

Man, this is all starting to make me nervous. :confused: Everyone is just making so much sense, it's confusing.....

Gonna go make another list now....

x'ed since the Nog post I quoted

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Some list so that you have something to read toMorrow perhaps, if I am lynched.

A Little Green- not been around today much, so hard to say. I really had a bad feeling about her yesterDay, but can't say anything as for toDay
alonariel- not been around at all
Boromir88- somewhat makes me uneasy in the way how he overlookingly threw me among the Wolves. Because I know he is a sensible player normally. I would understand it if he tried to get me slip or something, innocent Boro tries baiting baddies and such, but he hasn't been trying to discuss with me, he just dumped me.
Brinniel- hard to say. Seemed okay yesterDay, toDay I was somewhat unsettled, but that was just a sort of feeling, nothing much more concrete. Like, she was a lot more "okay, whatever" than yesterDay - given that she was the one, I think, who yesterDay said first that she will guard me (?) I believe. She certainly seemed that she trusted me a lot yesterDay, but did not meddle much with the matter toDay. I would ask her about her opinion, by the way.
Hakon- 50-50. Could be either, in some way, seems innocent. By sort of gut feeling now, and also there may be the Kit thing, as noted by Nogrod. (Or both him and Nog are WWs, but that would be quite much chance accumulated to make it happen.) But can be either, really.
Inziladun- I am really letting others decide, because I have no particular idea.
McCaber- not very vocal, could be anything.
Nerwen- by first thought, I thought her innocent. If I started to think of that more after today, I could suspect her. It would be a bit like overcombinating it, but maybe not. Well whatever. Whenever she is a Wolf, she's a good one, so hard to say, really.
Nessa Telrunya- who is that? That exists?
Nienna- seems rather genuine, although a bit too eager to dump me, but then, who isn't.
Nilpaurion Felagund- reasonably seeming and okay.
Nogrod- well that's really hard. I mean, he just sounds so unreasonable and blinded by a few zealous ideas that I can't believe he's innocent. However he got better later, like that Kit thing I quoted lately. Or is it retaliation from too aggressive waters? No idea.
Pitchwife- erk. No real idea, seemed more like innocent to me for a long time though.
satansaloser2005- well, you saw our little interaction late toDay. She could be a Wolf, really. Could be.
Shastanis Althreduin- very silly to easily agree with lynching me, but again, everybody does that.
Thinlómien- probably innocent, unless I start overcombinating.
wilwarin538- probably guilty.

So some more real things?

Things that I dare to say my opinion on more than on 50, or maybe 60 or even 70%:

Lommy - innocent
Nilp - innocent
wilwa - guilty

hmm... almost 50%... nienna-innocent... it's dropping... boro guilty? hakon innocent? sally guilty? mccaber innocent? We are entering a realm of total speculation now. No more to tell. (And I really didn't forget anybody, I can't make as unambiguous or definite judgement on the rest.)

EDIT: x-ed with wilwa

[wilwarin538]

Suspicious
Legate: I suppose suspicious is technically the wrong word for him, it's more that he is a logical choice and that his death could answer some questions and clear up a few things (hopefully)
McCaber: mainly cause his vote yesterday bugged me, I wouldn't vote for him purely on this, I'm just keeping an eye out for him
Zil: his vote, and over all badness vibe coming from him, again will keep an eye out, and will concentrate a bit more on him tomorrow if I'm around

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, might guard her
Nienna: really liking
Nogrod: will probably vote to guard him
Sally: seems goodish, not crazy confident about her, but I'm leaning more innocent
Shasta: seems good
Brinn: very comfortable with her

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: under the reindeer, atleast under mine, not sure why cause she has posted a lot, but I just don't feel anything either way
Alona: no posts yet
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say, but he's probably innocent
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: always confuses me, hard to get a solid feeling either way from him
Pitch: I was fairly confident of him, but now it's more of an unsure feeling

I'm gonna vote for

++Legate

now, since I really don't see me changing my mind on that, even if I'm starting to get a bit uneasy about this, it still just seems the most logical choice. Will wait to cast my guard vote though for a bit.

Xposted with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Time to look at some other people, starting with my fellow Kit voters.
Sally - has been very active and helpful yesterDay and toDay, so I fail to see how her retiring to do tallies for the last hour makes her suspicious (actually, it makes me wonder about Brinn and Nog suspecting her for such a frail reason).
Inzil - if I remember correctly from my other games with him, he behaved somewhat inscrutably both as a wolf and an innocent. I'd like to hear a little more from him, as most of his posts have been rather shortish.
Boro - looks good, all in all.
Nerwen - looks really good.
wilwa - has made some outstanding contributions, especially in her latest post; rather unsuspicious.
Lommy - now that's a hard one. I don't really know what to make of her, and her attempts to defend Legate (unless they have to do with life outside the village:)) don't sit right with me. But is it really probable she and Legs are wolves together?

I find it hard to find fault with anybody's given reasons for their vote (except, possibly, Lommy's - bad vibes is just a little too vague).
As for my own reasons, if anybody hasn't got it yet: I stated I found Kit suspicious based on the points against her made by Boro and Nerwen, at a time when she had only one vote. I certainly wasn't 100 % (or even 80 %) convinced of her guilt, but I suspected nobody else enough to vote for. I decided to vote late and wait if a better option would develop, but 5 minutes to DL there was none that I found more convincing. I had to vote someone (well, technically I might have abstained or done a self-vote, but what would have been the point?), so I stuck with my first suspicion - it wasn't good, but the best I could do at the time.

[Brinniel]

You asked who I'm voting for, Legate? Well, you'll hate to hear it, but I'll be voting you. You've made your arguments plenty, and while these arguments are well written, they don't convince me. Yeah there is the possibly of being framed, but it still seems more sensible for the wolves to make as many kills possible while they still can. Anyway, I think you're death will reveal a lot. If we lynch you and confirm you're a wolf, then we can toMorrow analyse posts to figure out who your fellows are. Not to mention, it'll prevent any double kills from ever happening. And if you so happen to be innocent as you claim, we can look back at toDay and see the reactions and attitudes of different players to help us figure out which of them are the wolves.

And I do have to go now and won't be back, so:

++Legate

Note: There's only an hour left, so let's not spend the rest of the Day discussing Legate. The wolves want us distracted, so I suggest we don't let ourselves get distracted and focus the attention elsewhere at other players who could be wolves too.

I'll guard:

++Shasta

He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, in that case (after reading her last post) I am leaning to see Brinn possibly also a bit more like guilty. Rather "simple" way of putting the matter off the table. Though it's true it may not necessarily mean guilt if you trust someone on one Day and then by logic you change your mind (especially if the first was Day 1). But still.

Btw, if wilwa is not innocent, the fact that her and mine lists x-posted might help in some way too. She could not have adjusted her lists based on what I said (in whichever way it might be of use).

[Nogrod]

It is interesting indeed how the lists of Legate and Wilwa bring forwards two different pictures of our overall situation... I mean just as I was ready to throw away some of the jammed intterrelations concerning both of them, their posts just rekindled them... Hmm...

What Legate says:
Inziladun- I am really letting others decide, because I have no particular idea.
McCaber- not very vocal, could be anything.
wilwarin538- probably guilty.


And what Wilwa says:
Suspicious
Legate: I suppose suspicious is technically the wrong word for him, it's more that he is a logical choice and that his death could answer some questions and clear up a few things (hopefully)
McCaber: mainly cause his vote yesterday bugged me, I wouldn't vote for him purely on this, I'm just keeping an eye out for him
Zil: his vote, and over all badness vibe coming from him, again will keep an eye out, and will concentrate a bit more on him tomorrow if I'm around


They would be really daring to both be wolves - with possibly the other two involved - and I don't think one has made a jackpot as being innocent. But that makes one think anyway...

EDIT X'd from Brinn onwards... interesting co-incidence in thinking Legate...

[Nogrod]

Sally - has been very active and helpful yesterDay and toDay, so I fail to see how her retiring to do tallies for the last hour makes her suspicious (actually, it makes me wonder about Brinn and Nog suspecting her for such a frail reason).A long story but made short it's something like the following: when a wolf is a around the DL and has no problem (the voting is going fine from her perspective) they kind of forget that if they were innocents they could not be that sure and would be bothered about how the voting goes. So just hanging around, posting either nonsense or tallies or whatever without trying to affect the voting or begging others to tell what they are going to do - or telling others what they have in mind to get a response - looks darn suspicious. I mean that's the only steady way of catching werewolves (I've spotted quite a few for just that). And somehow the wolves just don't seem to learn it (well some do but quite a many seemingly do not). And it is understandable: with the final heat they feel secure and get relaxed, and if they feel no pressure they decide to be careful rather than getting involved as any involvement might make them look bad following the outcome of the voting they can't know beforehand.

I mean: if you have no stake in it why to offer your neck to be cut the next Day?

[Pitchwife]

DL approaching, and I don't want to vote in a hurry again. So:
++Legate
Sorry if you're innocent, but you'll understand we have to find out. (And I do sincerely hope you're not gifted!)

And
++Guard Nogrod
Much as I appreciate his contributions (as noted yesterDay), he doesn't quite seem his usual self, so better err on the side of caution.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog; I'm not quite convinced, but I see your point.

[wilwarin538]

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway. I think it's just something she automatically does in order to always give, what she thinks is, a good vote. Cause even when someone is innocent they may still do things in order to not look suspicious.

x'ed with Pitch

[wilwarin538]

(And I do sincerely hope you're not gifted!)


I think a gifted Legate would have revealed a long time ago, since it was fairly clear most people would vote him. I admit he could be innocent, but I seriously doubt he's gifted and hasn't said anything.

[McCaber]

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

[Nogrod]

Well, Legate looks like getting the rope and I do agree he's our best choice even if he made a spirited fight.

If for some reason he turns out innocent I'd say we should look at Wilwa quite closely.

McCaber and and Inziladun will be interesting to read after either of the two is dead and revealed.

I'm somewhat totally undecided with Boro and Lommy: at times they look like the voices of wisdom and on others like creepy wolves. I wouldn't like to see either of them lynched soon but would look at them quite closely as they're both able to pull an act.

With Nerwen I'm the most suspicious on the consensus around that she's innocent. I actually suspected her a bit on Day1 but toDay she has been very reasonable. Like I felt yeaterDay about Mnemo; she's almost too reasonable to be true. So I'm not actually suspecting her but am worried about the consensus eg. betting heavily there being wolves within her guarding-votes. That would be an easy place to meddle in.

Sally looks bad but then she looks like Sally as well. I'm really torn with her. She could be a wolf going against her "already lost" mate - which would be understandable - well even something Legate would have insisted as the situation dawned on them the last Night. But then again I might be totally wrong with her, and Legate to be sure.

EDIT: X'd with a host... well, since my last one.

[Nogrod]

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway.It's not whether one votes at the last minute or earlier. It's what you do before you vote when in a tight situation... Are you concerned or do you just sit back and relax looking at others trying to figure out the outcome...

[Boromir88]

A quick question about the NG votes, if one wolf goes, would one of the other 3 try to attract the NG vote or not? Something for us to mull over perhaps.

Boromir88- somewhat makes me uneasy in the way how he overlookingly threw me among the Wolves. Because I know he is a sensible player normally. I would understand it if he tried to get me slip or something, innocent Boro tries baiting baddies and such, but he hasn't been trying to discuss with me, he just dumped me.~Legate

I didn't know you wanted to tango, or I may have been more willing. ;) My apologies. Although, I may seem a bit off from my normal combativeness, that is mostly though due to other things. Like not originally intending to play in a game after modding one and being a bit exhausted this week.

[Nogrod]

Anyone with a tally?

Sally? :D

[wilwarin538]

Alright. Well I'll still be aroud til the DL but I'm just gonna do this now to avoid the rush:

++ Guard Nogrod

This is gonna be the longest 15 minutes of my life....

[Nessa Telrunya]

My dear people, I sincerely apologize for my prolonged absence! A commission for quite the intricate dress called upon my time.

It seems Legate is widely suspected. It's a valid point, that this is indeed a death that would shed some much needed light.

++Legate


And for my guard vote, ++Nogrod, because I think the village could use his wit and common sense.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think a gifted Legate would have revealed a long time ago, since it was fairly clear most people would vote him. I admit he could be innocent, but I seriously doubt he's gifted and hasn't said anything.

Unless I am a Hunter *boo boo*

As for guard:

++Nilp

I guess I have still the retraction anyway, and if I survive, I won't probably regret that much using it already now... but I will still stay with the vote for a while yet.

EDIT: x-ed suddenly with a bunch of votes

[satansaloser2005]

Erm, hi, I just woke back up. Ah, I see my assistance is needed. Goodie; I can catch up at the same time! :D

[Boromir88]

Crossed with Noggers

It's not whether one votes at the last minute or earlier. It's what you do before you vote when in a tight situation... Are you concerned or do you just sit back and relax looking at others trying to figure out the outcome...

But that behavior towards the end is not unusual to sally, whether wolf or not. So for now, I'm agreeing with Pitch, it's too flimsy and I'm not going to suspect her for that, when also considering the rest of her participation. It's not like she has been giving us updated vote tallies the entire time. :rolleyes:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A quick question about the NG votes, if one wolf goes, would one of the other 3 try to attract the NG vote or not? Something for us to mull over perhaps.
I think the Wolves will be the only ones who could reply to you the truth, but now who says they would, right...

I didn't know you wanted to tango, or I may have been more willing. ;) My apologies. Although, I may seem a bit off from my normal combativeness, that is mostly though due to other things. Like not originally intending to play in a game after modding one and being a bit exhausted this week.

Oh, in that case I am heartbroken too. Well, we can always make amends later, or some other time.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

Might as well do that as there's little reason to do otherwise at this point and after all my arguing... :)

++ Legate

Let's hope the clear-cut explanation / interpretation was right.

I need to consider my guard-vote a moment still.

[Boromir88]

Oh, in that case I am heartbroken too. Well, we can always make amends later, or some other time.

I'm free for lunch next week. :p

[Nogrod]

I think it is

For lynching:
Legate 10
Inzil 3

For guarding:
Nog 5
Nerwen 2
Nilp 2
Wilwa, Inzil & Shasta 1

[Inziladun]

The Legate thing still looks too pat somehow, though admittedly it would be unreasonable to expect people to give him a pass. But it appears he'll be getting the rope regardless of anything I do. So...

++Legate

and

++Guard Nogrod

for Cab's reasons.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I'm more than ready to be guarded so I'll

++ guard Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Legate
Boro-->Legate (2)
Hakon-->Legate (3)
Greenie-->Legate (4)
Lommie-->Dun (2)
Nienna-->Legate (5)
Wilwa-->Legate (6)
Brinn-->Legate (7)
Pitch-->Legate (8)
Cabbie-->Dun (3)
Nessa-->Legate (9)
Nog-->Legate (10)
Dun-->Legate (11)


Guard
Nilp-->Wilwa
Nerwen-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog
Lommie-->Nilp
Nienna-->Nerwen (2)
Brinn-->Shasta
Pitch-->Nog (2)
Cabbie-->Noggie (3)
Wilwa-->Noggie (4)
Nessa-->Noggie (5)
Legate-->Nilp (2)
Dun-->Nog (6)
Nog-->Boro


Too lazy to check who hasn't voted in each case yet, but I'll look at it toMorrow if I'm still alive and make a comparison. Also, I find it interesting that Cabbie and Lommie voted to kill Dun. Especially Lommie, I think (or it could be the post-nap babble) because she did it early enough vote-wise that it potentially could have saved Legate. Cabbie could have been doing the same. (Of course all this is irrelevant if Legate's innocent, but I wanted to point it out anyway.)

EDIT: x'd with Nog, added in his vote

[Hakon]

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm free for lunch next week. :p

I'm not :p

Even though it could possibly even save my neck, I am not too keen on voting Inzil. I just don't feel like it. Heck, okay, now I can say that because I am probably going to end up dead anyway, I was even thinking of just lynching myself. (I didn't say it earlier for people would catch upon it even more, and then good riddance.)

++Inziladun

But just for the sake of saving myself. Not that good real good reason for that, really. Btw in my post with the list of people, pay heed more to the last ones, like those with the 70% and then the others after that, those are the ones I have dared to proclaim my opinion on more clearly. So first that, these are my opinions, like whom I suspect or not suspect etc., and only then read the entries at individual people in the list itself for details.

EDIT: Of course no need for that anymore. In some way, it's a relief.

[Nogrod]

I need to take back my words of being suspicious of the bandwagon of guarding on Nerwen...

You guys creep me out!

[satansaloser2005]

The Legate thing still looks too pat somehow, though admittedly it would be unreasonable to expect people to give him a pass. But it appears he'll be getting the rope regardless of anything I do. So...

++Legate

and

++Guard Nogrod

for Cab's reasons.

Erm....okay. The 'reasoning' just struck me as odd.

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

Sqwuak! I am a parrot! ;) I'll check both their posts (or rather all three) toMorrow and see what I decide to make of this.


++Legate

++Nienna (meh, might as well)


EDIT: x'd with Fried Chicken Legate and Noggie.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Btw I am getting better, as if I am really going to be lynched, it's Day 2 - in late games, I have been rather often lynched as innocent on Day 1.

Good-bye! Be good, take care of yourselves - and DON'T LEAVE THE PATH!!!

(no, there's no secret meaning to that goodbye)

(Or actually, there is. But I should rather say the opposite: You should not keep on the path of fools.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Enjoy, Nog ;) (the guard)

[Eönwë]

After commenting on the sorrowful loss of their Seer, the people of Upper Downsbury quickly turned their thoughts towards Legate.

First Sally commented, saying, "Either Legate's a wolf or it's a wolf trick, but I don't think it's likely that the wolves would give up that extra lynch."

Then Hakon said, "I've always thought it was Legate, I hope he is."

Nienna agreed, starting a massive bandwagon by saying, "I think it's worth it- lynching Legate, I mean."

Soon it seemed that everyone was willing to accept that it was not a wolf trick, and that Legate was, in fact, a wolf, which had lead to there only being one killing during the Night.

The Fool, Nilpaurion, who always spoke his mind, had something different to say. "Isn't it too easy? Don't you think that the wolves are tricking us?"

And Shasta went into denial about killing the Seer, realising that villages always killed their seers early, before they could be of much use.

Legate appeared, and appeared to be defending himself quite well against the accusations, but they kept coming and people ignored his replies. "Don't you realise that you're being used by the wolves?" he said. "Can't you see that they're going to take control. Don't do what they want you to do. And at least if you're going to kill me today, please talk about whoever else you think is evil, otherwise you've wasted the day, just like they wanted you to!"

Nerwen fought back, but it didn't matter. Even though they were thinking about what he was saying, the people still wanted to kill Legate.

The people were shouting, "He's a wolf! He's a wolf" and brought him to Eönwë

"Can we kill him, please?" someone shouted.

Eönwë paused for a moment. Now, what makes you think he's a wolf?"

"He looks like one." was the general clamouring voice of the crowd.

Legate, who was wearing a grey fur coat and fake teeth, came forwards. "I'm not a wolf," he said.

"But you are dressed as one," replied Eönwë.

"I don't look like this. They put these on me," Legate said, and took them off.

"Well?" said Eönwë, raising an eyebrow inquisitively at the crowd.

"Well," said Pitchwife, "we did do the teeth."

"The teeth?" the mayor inquired.

"And the coat," he admitted. "But he's a wolf!"

"Kill him! Kill him!" cried the crowd in a frenzy of bloodlust.

"Did you dress him up like that?" asked the mayor.

"No! No! No... Yes... Yes..." the crowd eventually admitted.

"Has he actually done anything to show he's a wolf?" asked Eönwë.

"He bit me!" exclaimed Nogrod.

"Really?" asked Eönwë.

"Well... I got better," he replied.

"Kill him anyway!" shouted Brinniel, soon to be echoed by the rest of the assembled lynch mob.

"Quiet, quiet!" Eönwë tried to calm the crowd. "There are ways of telling if he is a wolf."

"Tell us, tell us!" shouted the crowd.

"Well... what can float?"

"Wood!" shouted McCaber.

"Bread!" shouted Nessa.

"A wolf!" shouted Pitchwife.

"Exactly" verified Eönwë. "So logically, if he can float...

"...then he's a wolf!" shouted Brinniel triumphantly.

"And then we can kill him!" shouted the crowd.

"Precisely." said Eönwë.

So they took Legate to the river. They tied his hands and feet together and Brinniel and Pitchwife flung him in.

A little blood came up, but was washed past by the river. But there was no sign of Legate.

"He was innocent after all." said Eönwë. And everyone went back to the village square, downcast. "It just goes to show that money can't give you everything.

"And who shall we save for the night?" asked the mayor.

"Nogrod!" was the general consensus.

And so, the Night guards took up their positions for the third time, this time outside Nogrod's house.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent

[Eönwë]

The Night came again, swift and cold. The villagers were lamenting their losses, as no wolves had yet been killed, whereas three innocent villagers and their Seer had been taken.

But one by one, the village fell into sleep. All except one. Lommy was sitting, lamenting the death of Legate.

"I told them. I told them. But would they listen?" she said to herself, over and over again. She lost all hope of them ever being able to save the village from the wolves.

Then, she felt something cold touch the back of her neck, and she saw and felt no more.

---

The next morning, the village assembled in the square, as was the custom by now. Eönwë spoke to the crowd. "Are we all here?"

"I am sad to say that we are missing Lommy." said Nogrod. There was no trace of her in her home, and it took a long time for people to find anything that would give them a clue as to what had happened that night.

Eventually, her blood-soaked remains were found left in the old well. This well had mysteriously dried up a few days before the first wolf arrived, and they had spent the last few weeks filling it up. It was now almost filled up, only around two metres deep.

They decided to leave Lommy's body where it was found, and continue filling in the well, which was now also a grave, and it was known as the Well of Lommy until the last days of the village, and the gardens of Upper Downsbury never again received as much love and attention as when Lommy had been alive.

Nogrod said, "I should have given her the protection instead of being so selfish!" The realisation that she was dead had still not sunk in for Nogrod and Greenie.

They went back to the village square. Eönwë stood there, with the same gloomy expression that had become part of his face for the last few days.

"Today we really need to catch a wolf. We have already lost four, and they have lost none. Please make your votes today count. We do not want to lose any more of us.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent


The sun has risen on Day 3. You may resume posting.

[Nienna]

Bah.

[Hakon]

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

[Nienna]

Congrats wolves. You have found a way to circumvent being found out by the village by night guards. You are also giving up killing an extra person each night. I'll take that though. We lynched an innocent yesterday but we are up two innocents as the wolves have given up two extra kills.

[wilwarin538]

bah indeed.

Major headache here from the all the headdesking I did yesterday. I cannot believe this.

Hakon, practically everyone was a Legate voter. So yes, I'm positive there are wolves in there, probably 2, if not 3.

This is unreal....I don't even know what to say about this. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nogrod, at least not now cause I'm sure that's exactly what the wolves want from us. But he'll probably end up being guilty in the end, just to spite us.

uh

I'm at work now, but I'll be home in about 3 hours. Then I should be around for a couple hours. Much more tomorrow though.

[wilwarin538]

we are up two innocents as the wolves have given up two extra kills.

Which is exactly why I wasn't expecting them to do this a second time. Just seems too crazy for me. Which is why Nog will probably be guilty, they wanted us to be unsure with this Night Guard thing, to protect themselves, and it worked. I'm very confused. :rolleyes:

[Nienna]

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

[Inziladun]

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

You are indeed correct in that it seems the Night Guard has been rendered useless as a tool for finding innocents. That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.
I wonder, for what reason did they choose Lommy? Just getting rid of a potential threat?

[Nogrod]

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.Well maybe his fault, or maybe to his honour - even if unintended.

I mean we could be two more down right now. So instead of being four down we could be six down... and continue the multiplation if you wish...

And like yesterDay I still think that is a bad tactics for them. Yeah, they kind of succeeded yesterDay but with what cost? With every kill they don't do we gain more Days to read them and we have better chances of starting to find patterns from their actions.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them.Heh, almost the whole village... If you're looking at the votes I'd rather look at those Inzil-voters. I mean it was so clear we were going to lynch Legate from the first hours on (unless something really drastic happened) that a cool wolf would have done a reasonable job hiding in the opposition that would look soo good afterwards.

To take my idea with a pinch of salt I must say I was really starting to suspect Lommy again late yesterDay as she was so outstandingly adamant with her defence of Legate. It would have been really the best thing a wolf could have done yesterDay. But alas, she was innocent as well... and dead now.

That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

So chew on that you lupine child-killers! :mad:

[Hakon]

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

[Inziladun]

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves. It has yet to come back and bite them, though with any luck that will change today.
Sorting out the Legate voters will indeed be tough, as they obviously can't all be wolves. I'll take a look at them though.

[Nogrod]

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.I do agree. Whatever gain the wolves have had from their tactics of seemingly shooting themselves to the leg is that we can't take the NG's as seer dreams. Sure that option is lost.

Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.Who says we except them to always follow a pattern set on the first Night of their action? Wouldn't that be quite foolish? As I said, we can no longer think of the NG's as seer dreams but neither can we take them as signs of guilt (Legate proved that). Like Nienna said it is back to the drawing board where we need to consider every Night individually.

Okay for me it's now +2AM and I'm getting to bed. Happily it's Saturday tomorrow and I have more time to hang around.

[Nogrod]

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves. We can basically hold on two known innocents - and only so far our ranger is alive... And with a village of 15+ that is of no "serious impediment" to us anyway.

The known innocents would help us later though - and there's the stinger for the cowardly Night-stabbers: the chance of your Days of having two kills comes closer to the end every hour and if you keep up killing just one it will be a miserable and hard journey for you to reach to the end needing to win so many more lynches, but if you start killing two you produce us known innocents just at the moment we need them and they can make a difference then when our numbers are less! We'll just need to start picking the NG's not for trying their guilt but actually for trusting them to be worth the protection to follow.

Think about that the next Night wolves... :p

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[wilwarin538]

not too much to read...

....

I mean we could be two more down right now. So instead of being four down we could be six down... and continue the multiplation if you wish...

And like yesterDay I still think that is a bad tactics for them. Yeah, they kind of succeeded yesterDay but with what cost? With every kill they don't do we gain more Days to read them and we have better chances of starting to find patterns from their actions.

Heh, almost the whole village... If you're looking at the votes I'd rather look at those Inzil-voters. I mean it was so clear we were going to lynch Legate from the first hours on (unless something really drastic happened) that a cool wolf would have done a reasonable job hiding in the opposition that would look soo good afterwards.

.....

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

So chew on that you lupine child-killers! :mad:

Exactly. This is exactly why I was so sure Legate had to be guilty because I don't get why they are giving up this chance. If I was a wolf I'd be so excited to be able to kill that many people at once, since it's how they win. Since one of them will eventually die (thus losing double kills) it's not like there would have been that many known innocents created, and they would have been able to eventually kill those known innocents anyway. I completely don't get it. We really just now have far more time to discuss and analyse everything.

Basically: thank you wolves for giving up your advantage and giving us more time to hunt you down! We really appreciate it! :rolleyes:

So either we're dealing with inexperienced wolves (don't really know who they could even be though), or experienced wolves who are trying to make us think they are inexperienced. Probably the latter.

Wow. I don't get this. It's so screwed up.

So. I'm exhausted, had a long day filled with really annoying customers, but I'm gonna stay around for about the next half hour, then I should be on fairly consistently tomorrow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bah, humbug.

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty. That's good, fellow villagers.

Why Lommy, though? Well, the only thing I can come up with is that there were only three non-Legate voters: himself, her, and . . . me. Paint a bulls-eye at me, will you? And on a bloody weekend, at that?

Be back with a lynch tally. *gags*

[wilwarin538]

hmmm. falling asleep on my keyboard here so I'm gonna head out. be back in the morning with a clearer head.

[satansaloser2005]

DAY ONE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate
Pitchie-->Kit (4)
Legate-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Dun
Nog-->Greenie
Lommie-->Kit (5)
Sally-->Kit (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (3)
Pitchie-->Boro (4)
Lommie-->Legate (5)
Legate-->Lommie
Wilwa-->Legate (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


DAY TWO

Lynch
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Legate
Boro-->Legate (2)
Hakon-->Legate (3)
Greenie-->Legate (4)
Lommie-->Dun (2)
Nienna-->Legate (5)
Wilwa-->Legate (6)
Brinn-->Legate (7)
Pitch-->Legate (8)
Cabbie-->Dun (3)
Nessa-->Legate (9)
Nog-->Legate (10)
Dun-->Legate (11)
Legate-->Dun (4)
Sally-->Legate (12)

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta


Guard
Nilp-->Wilwa
Nerwen-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog
Lommie-->Nilp
Nienna-->Nerwen (2)
Brinn-->Shasta
Pitch-->Nog (2)
Cabbie-->Noggie (3)
Wilwa-->Noggie (4)
Nessa-->Noggie (5)
Legate-->Nilp (2)
Dun-->Nog (6)
Nog-->Boro
Hakon-->Nog
Sally-->Nienna

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta

Innocents are in italics, known baddies (not that we have any:() underlined. Gifteds are bolded as well

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
Oh, there were four of us?
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .
Sqwuak! I am a parrot! ;)

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Curses, Sally! Me not first. :( Ah, well, my list is infinitely superior in pulchritude. :p

This is all your fault, you know? I was having a grand time chasing imaginary mice (http://i698.photobucket.com/albums/vv345/mhnibblernews/AcolyteMouse.jpg) with an imaginary iron Christmas tree (http://i32.tinypic.com/2rdxg60.jpg) when you dragged me into this village. :p

[satansaloser2005]

Awwww. Nilp doesn't love his Sally anymore? :(

*sniffles*

I'll go drown my sorrows in an analysis. Who? I'll surprise you. :rolleyes:

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, I got one good little thing out of your reactionary antirevolutionary ( :p ) list.

Shasta didn't vote. I had to go back and check if he posted yesterDAY, and he did. Just once, though. So probably the imaginary 'real life' (how bourgeois) took him away.

*chases butterflies with Engels*

[Nerwen]

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Not worth it. To quote myself at #224 (replying to Nilp):

If they did, they were giving up a kill solely in order to give them a possible advantage in a possible future situation. It can only pay off if we happen to guard a wolf while all four of them are still alive, and maybe not even then.

On that note:

Possible (not necessarily mutually exclusive) reasons for the lack of second kills, in no particular order:

1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e. the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.)

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic.)

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

3., 4., and 5. are interesting, not because they're terribly good tactics, but because the wolves may think they are.

[Inziladun]

A sensible summary, Nerwen.


1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e.the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

I think the liklihood of that depends on how much 'heat' Wilwa was under.

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

Certainly possible, but with no double kill last Night, and no Seer to vouch for him, we have no way of knowing that doesn't involve his death.

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.).

That's plausible, but I think it unlikely to be the prime motive.

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic

It does seem a strong lure that tactic would hold. Known innocents=less confusion for the village. That makes the most sense to me.

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

Surely they won't take that as a given, after Legate was proven innocent. But confusion is a powerful weapon.

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

That would suugest they possess a good deal of experience and cunning, and wish to hide it.

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

With the sheer number of innocents remaining, I think that can be discounted for now.

[Brinniel]

Hmm...I think the best thing to do now is to look back at everyone yesterDay. We obviously can't make much judgment on the votes themselves, but picking up some comments and behaviours players had towards Legate's guilt could help give us some clues to which of them are the wolves. That's something I'd like to do, but I don't have time now, so it must wait.

The one-kill tactic isn't the smartest plan since it does give us more opportunities to lynch, but it still leaves us with uncertainty. We can't know for sure whether the wolves chose one kill or if Nogrod is actually guilty. We obviously don't want to repeat our mistake from yesterDay, but at the same time, we can't just disregard him. We need to lynch based on suspicious behaviour and not just from the results of the Night Guard. That's how it should be.

Btw, I'm not sure how active I'll be toDay since I am in the process of finding furniture for my bedroom.

[McCaber]

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.

There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.


Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609609&postcount=154). It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609478&postcount=60); furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.Logical conclusion.

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

[ I]t does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.Logical conclusion.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?Logical conclusion.

Whoa. I wasn't expecting that. I wasn't that suspicious about Leggie yesterDay, but I've been thinking and really can't come up with any sensible reason for the wolves to let pass a Night kill for the sake of framing Legate. Sure, they'd like seeing an innocent lynched, but it just doesn't make sense that they give up their other Night kill for that. Therefore I'll probably vote Legate toDay. It's simply much more evidence against him than there is against anyone else, and if we let him live and he turned out to be a baddie I'd drown myself in a bucket. :D Logical conclusion.

Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.Legate as test case.

Too easy?You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh? :rolleyes:

[ . . . ]

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609517&postcount=84), and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609622&postcount=166). The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609547&postcount=108) and this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609586&postcount=132) his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609513&postcount=80); however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609515&postcount=82), before the time of Nogrod's statement.


The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609546&postcount=107). He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609619&postcount=163), after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

I'm truly puzzled about Legate at the moment. As I said before, I found his #153 yesterday looking more innocentish than some of those before, and his arguments toDay are well reasoned, even if they happen to be in his own defense. There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.
But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
That method would become useless, of course, if we happen to have the unbelievable luck of lynching a wolf toDay (instead of our Ranger or Hunter, or a plain ordo). It might be safer to lynch him toDay and lament him toMorrow, if he turns out to be innocent.Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609554&postcount=111).

My dear people, I sincerely apologize for my prolonged absence! A commission for quite the intricate dress called upon my time.

It seems Legate is widely suspected. It's a valid point, that this is indeed a death that would shed some much needed light.

++Legate [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:
Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Phew.

Right, you got your dates horribly screwed up, but whatever. It's DAY 1 and DAY 2, for crying out loud.

Adam, you're not in this game.

So sue me.

I shall, soon as I get a large enough needle.

Anyway, the only person I can trust in this village right now is Boro, so:

++Boromir88

The 'anomalies detected in some of the villagers' that I mentioned in my conclusion is mainly Inziladun and his posting. Having never played with him before, I do not know his playing style, therefore I do not have a basis for comparison. But reading them it seems he's at the edge of the crowd surrounding Legate, not really supporting them, but not being indifferent to it either. It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway (q.v. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609880&postcount=333)), which is, of course, how a Werewolf would have treated someone they set up. Add to that my unalleviated suspicion from the previous DAY, he'll be the recipient of my vote again toDAY.

++Inziladun

How come you didn't use those Latin abbreviations in your travesty of a white paper?

Oh, do be quiet. I'm tired, and I had to skip lunch for that. Be back the next DAY, Eru willing.

[Nerwen]

It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway.

I believe you mean, "he voted for Legate".

[Nerwen]

The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.

Why, though?

While, I'm here, good people, I'd like to share with you some of my experiences in other werewolf-plagued villages in which I have sojourned. In some of these the honest folk of the village were sore puzzled as to why the evil ones had acted as they did (killing one person rather than another, and so forth). But among them would be the disguised werewolves, and at times these fiends would actually let slip the real reason for the kill. Which makes me wonder rather about Inziladun, and to a lesser extent Wilwa and Hakon. (I suppose I should add Nilp to the list, though he hasn't given me any other reason to suspect him.)

Of course, we could always try placating the wolves instead...

*strums lute*

"Grey is the colour
Of my true love's hair.
His fangs are like some daggers fair.
The sweetest... er.... snarl and the gentlest paws
I love the way he snaps his jaws–"

No, I don't think that's going to work, somehow.

EDIT:fixed typo.

[Pitchwife]

Oh what a mess! Our late Lommy was right - we are a silly bunch of lemmings!
Unfortunately, I don't think we'll gain many clues from yesterDay's Legate bandwagon per se, since most of the village (with a few honorable exceptions) was involved, as has been said. In the meantime, it would be worthwile to think about the wolves' motives for the kills of the last two Nights, so far as it hasn't been done yet.
I'll start with Mnemo. She was a very active villager on Day 1 and argued her points very well, which is a reason to take her out in itself, as she certainly would have gone on being helpful, if allowed to survive. Furthermore, she suggested The Plan, which, if put into action, would have saved our Seer and meant serious danger for the wolves. I'm quite certain this was the main motive for her killing.
Naturally, her death confirmed her and her motives in suggesting The Plan as innocent. What would that accomplish for the wolves? Obviously, it would throw an innocent light on those who had supported her (probably including some wolves), and a more dubious one on her opponents. (The Plan itself, of course, was void at the time, with the Seer dead.)
Those who cautioned against The Plan (at least initially) were Legate, Inzil, Sally, Greenie, Lommy, Nienna, Nerwen and Kit; among these, Legate was the most vocal and most elaborate in his criticism, which earned him some suspicion and was a main reason for him to end up Guarded. This leads me to assume that both forgoing one kill and the choice of the actual kill were part of the plan to frame Legate (and possibly others after him).
I'll continue with Lommy soon; for now, I only suspect the reasons may have been similar in both cases - which makes me somewhat cautious against concentrating too heavily on Inzil.

P.S. Nilp, I'm really impressed with your work both yesterDay and toDay; seems we have an idiot savant for our village fool!

[Nerwen]

Oh what a mess! Our late Lommy was right - we are a silly bunch of lemmings!

Not really. We did need to see if the wolves were actually willing to pass up a kill in order to frame someone/create uncertainty/whatever.

I'll start with Mnemo. She was a very active villager on Day 1 and argued her points very well, which is a reason to take her out in itself, as she certainly would have gone on being helpful, if allowed to survive. Furthermore, she suggested The Plan, which, if put into action, would have saved our Seer and meant serious danger for the wolves. I'm quite certain this was the main motive for her killing.
Naturally, her death confirmed her and her motives in suggesting The Plan as innocent. What would that accomplish for the wolves? Obviously, it would throw an innocent light on those who had supported her (probably including some wolves), and a more dubious one on her opponents. (The Plan itself, of course, was void at the time, with the Seer dead.)

I agree it's about time we looked closer at the kills that did happen– but that's a rather complicated theory, Pitchy. It requires the wolves to have assumed that we'd assume they'd take a totally pointless revenge on Mnemo. (Back to the "newbie wolves" theory?)

Still, it is surprising they didn't leave her alive and try to frame her– "Look how she drew the Seer out! Look how she voted Wilwa for no reason!"

–This brings me to the other significant thing Mnemo did on Day One: she voted Wilwa because of a "crack theory" which she declined to explain at the time. No doubt she would have done so on Day Two had she survived the Night. This makes me think the kill-choice may point either to Wilwa, or to an attempt to frame her.

EDIT:word left out.

[Pitchwife]

OK, as long as nobody else is talking, here are my thoughts on Lommy's death.
Apart from being against The Plan on Day 1, she heavily defended Legate on Day 2 and voted for Zil, the only other candidate who got any votes. Again, her confirmed innocence also confirms she had good motives in doing so. If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent. I'm pretty confident that we have at least one strategic mastermind among the wolves.

Nogrod would certainly be a candidate for such a role, but I'm very much against lynching him based on the outcome of his being Guarded. The whole idea of using the NG as a test of innocence, brought up by myself with some help from Sally and Nog (and wisely cautioned against by McCaber and the late Legate himself), has backfired really abominably, so let's by any means not base any more lynchings on this!
What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious. On the other hand, her killing may be a wolvish attempt to frame Nog, rather than (or in addition to) Inzil.

So I'm inclined to think both Nog and Zil rather innocent at the moment, and I'm also inclined to look for the majority of our wolves among

the supporters of The Plan and
the Legate bandwagon.

In other words, they're safely hiding in a huge crowd. This won't be easy.

(x-ed with Nerwen: good point about wilwa.)

[Pitchwife]

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

Thanks for reminding me of Mnemo's wilwa vote, which I had neglected. wilwa certainly needs a close look, especially as Legate also voted her on Day 1. She was rather quick to latch on to Mnemo's suggestion on Day 1, and also argued very much for lynching Legate on Day 2.
Makes me wonder about Nilp's motives for voting to Guard her on Day 1, especially as he was among the Zil-voters yesterDay (see my above on that).

[Nienna]

I cannot stay long as I am helping with the furniture acquiring but I'd like to throw a few thoughts in.

McCaber is worrying me a little at the moment as are Zil (nothing new really), and Nilp. I can't really place my finger on what what is worrying me about Nilp though I believe he bears closer watching. Nog also seems to be acting much different than I've seen him play before. I believe I have only seen him as an innocent so that worries me a little bit.

I agree with what's been said that we cannot use the NG thing as a main reason for lynching but this does not mean that Nog is innocent either.

When I get back later I will look at voting things.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the wolves' picks I do find one thing in common with Mnemo and Lommy. Namely they both made a more or less powerful case had we followed them we would be much better off. So they maybe thinking "if they are able to bring that good ideas forwards now they may be able to excel also later on" and thence silenced them.

Like spreading terror around: speak wisely and you're dead... :eek:


On another note. I'm afraid we're approaching some really hard decisions.

We have an urgent mission which is to get the first wolf so as to remove the threat of two Night-kills from over our heads asap. Was it not for that, I would start now a real campaign for checking out our more quieter fellows rather now than later when it becomes next to impossible to do it.

But this situation just highlights the problem with the "submarines". We have four people with posts from zero to six thus far. How do you differentiate between them? How do you make a judgement about one being groundedly more suspicious than the other? And if they continue like that the situation will never change and it will always be a hit in the dark just hoping for the best - and the wolves rarely kill them as they can be a kind of "dead load" we can't be decide anything about but are not helping us either... :(

Because of that, I usually suggest we try our luck with those rather earlier than later in the game, but sadly I'm afraid we do not have that luxury this time with the double-kill sword hanging on top of us.

So we just have to succeed toDay.

I'll get into rereading the thread and it may take time. Hopefully it pays off even a little.

[Nerwen]

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent.

Ah, but from the point of view of this travel-worn bard, it's so transparent that the village would probably not believe an entire pack would do something that obvious– and the wolves should know this. Makes me wonder if it could be a double-bluff. (Alternatively, the wolves really are playing dumb.)

Contrast this to my argument on the Mnemo kill. In that case, Mnemo had a theory about Wilwa's guilt which she had yet to reveal. That gives a Wolfwarin a real motive for killing her. By the same token, it gives the wolves a good chance to frame an innocent Wilwa. (As I recall, no-one seemed to be following up on it yesterDay, however.)

I wonder why Mnemo acted as she did? Saying, "I've got this theory about why X is a wolf, see you tomorrow," is pretty much the definition of "asking for it". You'd think the wolves would be afraid she was the Hunter. I'd almost say that clears Wilwa– except that your friendly travelling minstrel once voyaged on a ship whose crew thought wolves would never risk killing a Hunter who suspected them. The results were not pretty.

What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious.

That's what you think.;) (I'm not saying it's evidence of his guilt, you understand, but I don't think it tells us anything either way.)

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

I didn't say it requires a newbie pack (when does that ever happen?) just that it would be an odd move for anyone else (unless, as Wilwa suggests, they're trying to look inexperienced). By "complicated" I meant the double-assumption aspect.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Even if Eönwë has posted this is the admin thread I think we should actually understand this here.

If alonariel does not vote toDay, she will be modfired. As stated in the rules, this means that the wolves will only get one kill toNight. Logically, this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left).So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

[Boromir88]

Very short day for me today again...too much on my platter at the moment, but I will say...

Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.

I wonder if I can read through before I have to leave?

Oh and this is going to be a complete flip-flop from what I said about Nogrod, but I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1? That's all I got to offer right now, my apologies for bumming around.

[Pitchwife]

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???
No, he's not - why would he tell us? He's merely saying alona will be modfired whether she's a wolf or not (i.e. he's not making any Teflon wolf exceptions to the modfire rule). The Rules state that if somebody is modfired, the wolves will get only one kill that Night, even if there would have been two kills otherwise. He's trying to make it fair for us, so we won't lose three innocents at once, if an innocent is modifred. And if alona is modfired as a wolf and we Guard another wolf, there will still be one kill (by the remaining wolves).

[Nerwen]

Even if Eönwë has posted this is the admin thread I think we should actually understand this here.

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

Well, I can't think of anything else it could mean, can you?

I was just going to say, it would be a great joke if the pack consisted of Alona, Hakon, Nessa and Pitchwife, and what we've been seeing as some impenetrable masterplan is just the result of them being fairly inexperienced.

EDIT: X'd with Boro and Pitchwife.

[Nerwen]

The Rules state that if somebody is modfired, the wolves will get only one kill that Night, even if there would have been two kills otherwise. He's trying to make it fair for us, so we won't lose three innocents at once, if an innocent is modifred.

Thanks, Pitchy, I missed that.

Okay, Steve's out of the Most Careless Mod stakes.

[Nogrod]

But how do you explain this (the bolding especially)?
this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left).

[Nogrod]

I mean there is no other way for there being only two wolves left the next Night but that Alona is one and we lynch another toDay... we can't lynch two wolves now can we?

[Nerwen]

But how do you explain this (the bolding especially)?

"this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left)."

Oh, wait, maybe Steve's back in the stakes after all. Dear me.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

[Nogrod]

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".Okay, that might make sense... but why - well anyway why - to make that comment as we all know that even a lonely wolf can kill unless DG'd?

Odd, to put it mildly...

[Boromir88]

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

[Pitchwife]

I was just going to say, it would be a great joke if the pack consisted of Alona, Hakon, Nessa and Pitchwife, and what we've been seeing as some impenetrable masterplan is just the result of them being fairly inexperienced.
That would be very funny indeed - even more if we actually managed to win that way against you veterans! (And NO, that was NOT a confession, of course!)

Nog, isn't it obvious? If alona is a wolf, and is modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, there will be 2 wolves left. If alona is innocent and modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, 3 wolves left. So whatever alona's role, when she's modfired there will be 2-3 wolves left (unless she's innocent and we don't Guard or lynch a wolf -> 4 wolves left, but according to the Rules only one kill). What happened to your logic?;)

(x-ed with several Nerwensand Nogrods , and Boro.)

[wilwarin538]

Nilp, that was epic.

Looking at the wolves' picks I do find one thing in common with Mnemo and Lommy. Namely they both made a more or less powerful case had we followed them we would be much better off. So they maybe thinking "if they are able to bring that good ideas forwards now they may be able to excel also later on" and thence silenced them.


This seems very likely.

So I am awake, in a better mood and with a clearer head and should be around randomly throughout the day.

So at first when I saw that 4 people had voted for Inzil yesterday I thought "wow, they have to be guilty", just cause I thought it was crazy, then later I was like "k, maybe not so much, that's too bold of a move for a wolf". Which is where I am still sitting now. For a wolf to be among only 4 people to not vote for someone, and now for it to just be down to 2 of them (Nilp and McC), I'm leaning towards them being innocent. I think the wolves would have preferred to hide among the Legate voters. Though out of the two if one did end up being a wolf, I'd lean more towards McC, but not much.

Inzil, still worries me. Like Nilp said he was kinda like "yes of course it's a good idea to lynch Legate, but is there anyway to be absolutely sure first? :Merisu:" Almost like he wanted to be on the same side as everyone, but when Legate would turn out innocent he didn't want to look like he had completely agreed with the plan. That's how I interpret the whole thing anyway. It's similar to his vote for Kit Day 1 where he latched on to the obvious beginning of a bandwaggon.

Nogrod feels innocent to me still, like he has since the beginning. This whole thing makes me think he'll probably end up guilty and we'll all be kicking ourselves later, but right now I can't see any good reason to lynch him, other then the NG. Which we know isn't really the best method for proving someone's guilt. Therefore I believe we should just leave Nog alone for now, keep him maybe as a possible lynch choice later on in the game.

We have to get a wolf today, cause this NG thing is just causing so much confussion. I'm not personally scared of the double kill thing, because the wolves haven't used it yet, and I'd be surprised if they did all of a sudden, they seem to enjoy causing confusion and don't seem to like the idea of providing us with known innocents. But of course they're unpredictable so who knows what'll happen.

I'll be back a bit later, gots some cleaning to do...

x'ed with Boro and Pitch

[Nogrod]

On a different issue...

I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1?Thanks Boro! I started reading the thread from the beginning but it felt totally unfocused and futile in a way; I mean too many things to focus on and surely no one wishes to read (or make) a short interpretation about all that has happened. But I had forgotten that no one had done that and it would be interesting indeed. As I said yesterDay already the sudden bandwagon of guarding me felt quite creepy. So let's see whether there are common denominators there with the two NG-wagons as it seems the wolves wished to frame those protected with their one kill tactics. We all know that with Legate and I do know it from my part as well.

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.
I don't see it as a waste of time. If it is true that Alona is a wolf my target for toDay changes radically. With one wolf bagged and the double-kill threat lifted I'd focus heavily on the quieter ones because we could then afford it at this stage of the game. If it's not true, we'd need to focus on those we can actually say something based on actual words and deeds which means our more active players, which is always so stupid because it gives certain people free-rides to make their mischiefs in the end...

So to me at least this is important.

But I won't be arguing about it the next hours as I have work to do eg. looking back at the NG-wagons.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I'll end this speculation from my part right here... just after this
Nog, isn't it obvious? If alona is a wolf, and is modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, there will be 2 wolves left. If alona is innocent and modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, 3 wolves left. So whatever alona's role, when she's modfired there will be 2-3 wolves left (unless she's innocent and we don't Guard or lynch a wolf -> 4 wolves left, but according to the Rules only one kill). What happened to your logic?;)See the bolding? Eönwë didn't give the option of there being 4 left but said there would be 2-3 left. That's what bothers me there.

Okay, maybe it was meant to be there was 2-3 wolves "free to act" during the Night... But just saying x wolves left brings different ideas to mind. And as even one wolf can kill during the Night so why make that declaration in the first place?

Okay, that's it for me now...

[Boromir88]

So to me at least this is important.


Fair enough, for me I don't see the purpose because Eonwe has repeatedly said he's not giving any mod hints, maybe it was a slip, but why blow it up to that extent? Did you really expect something like "Yep, you got me, I made a slip." :rolleyes:

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

NG Votes for Legate (Day 1):

Brinn
Nerwen
Shasta
Nogrod
Lommy
wilwa

(Italics be the dead innocents)

NG Votes for Nogrod (Day 2):

Greenie
Pitch
McCaber
wilwa
Nessa
Inzil
Hakon

That's interesting, the only repeated name is wilwa. I would also like to point out from Pitch on down to Hakon was just pretty much a large guard Nogrod wagon. With Legate there really wasn't a wagon, it was pretty split between guarding me or Legate.

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes. Or maybe that just means we have wolves who are trying to distance themselves from eachother and spread out? hmmm

[Pitchwife]

Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.
What may we learn from finding out the role of somebody who hasn't played at all, and whose being modfired, whatever her role, won't affect the number of kills toNight? I'm puzzled.

When analysing the Guard bandwagons, it's well to think about possible set-ups, but let's not forget that at least some people will have used their Guard votes as they were originally meant to be used, i.e. to keep alive those we think innocent, while others used the Guard as a test and some probably voted with both aspects in mind (I know I did).

For now, I've got to eat and then work on another two tombstones. See you later.

P.S. Have I mentioned yet that it feels really good to be alive on Day 3 for a change?;) Wonder how long that'll last...

[Boromir88]

Ahh, and I'll be away until 2 or 3-ish my time, so there best be some real good analysis that I can come back to.

And ye wolves were probably most unwise to leave me alive this long ha, I gave you the chance to kill me early when I was exhausted. Now the fire's been lit and it will be most difficult to lynch me, you'd be sure to regret it because it would be your end. :p

[wilwarin538]

Hmm.. the thing Eonwe said about Alona is a bit weird, I don't completely understand what's happening there. But I agree with Boro, it'll be easier to talk about this once it's actually happened, if she's just an innocent then it doesn't really mean anything, if she's a wolf well then there we go.

I have to run off again for a bit, in a few hours I should be able to sit down and contribute more.

[Nogrod]

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.I guess I answered that already but maybe I need to do it again.

It's not about Alona, it's about there not being four wolves any more and thence no threat of double-kills. That being the case I'd suggest we'd turn more to the quieter ones for lynches as we can afford it now better than later (we can't just leave them be quiet the whole game and only hope they will be on our side) - but with the chance of double-kills on us we probably need to search from the more vocal people as we need to get one wolf down and quick and with the submarines it's throwing a dice.

The problem being that those more vocal could help us (or can be caught more easily) later unlike those who just shut up.


I need to go and make some dinner etc. but here's a few things that started to bother me as I went reading things over Day1 & 2.

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Anyway our discussion of the Kit-voters died down pretty soon as everyone (me included) focused on Legate.

I mean to me it was odd Kit was lynched. Her reasons for voting were not the best ones but not the worst either. So how come she ended up at the gallows? If she was right with Brinn there would have been people eager to send her there...


Also I was actually thinking much better of Wilwa re-reading Day1 but looking at Boro's list on the NG-votes makes me think it again.

Sally makes me worried as well...


I'll try to elaborate a bit later and hopefully have some more solid to bring forwards.

[Nerwen]

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

Make a distinction, though, between guarding to test and guarding to neutralise.

Anyway–

Lynch:

++Inziladun. It's sort of out of him and Wilwa for me at the moment.

I don't like having to vote early each Day, but DL comes at a really bad time for me. Please don't everyone just pile on my vote this time! There are a good many other people that need looking at, notably Sally, Nilp and the ones who have hardly been around– Nessa, Brinniel etc.

Guard:

++Boro.

Because he's looked quite good so far, and might be a target.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Good point– and I believe everyone had forgotten. There were so many distractions, plus Wilwa made such a very convincing case for the dream being Mnemo.

Interesting, that.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, I have to go.

Good night and good luck.

[Pitchwife]

*pops back in briefly*
Boro, although I found him looking good earlier and would much prefer still finding him so, is starting to worry me a little bit, now I look at him a little closer. Reasons:

says Inzil feels wolfish quite early, for what seem to me very flimsy reasons;
supports Mnemo's plan, though cautiously;
says he can't see the wolves wasting a night-kill to frame somebody, and
thinks McCaber needs watching for suggesting they might;
concurs with Nog's suspicion of Lommy;
suspects Kit (which persuaded myself at the time) and votes her;
argues for lynching Legate, dismisses Legate's defense that he was framed (see above!), and votes him;
hasn't said anything notable about the fact that Leg was indeed framed, and says Nog is still suspicious because of the one kill.

Taken all together, this looks somewhat creepy.
And now he threatens the wolves it would be their end if they got him lynched? What's that supposed to mean?

Maybe Nerwen needs looking at too because of the interaction between them, although I really liked the part she's played so far.

Anyway, I'll have to leave you for now.

[Nerwen]

*Also pops back in briefly*

Ah, well, those are all rather good points, Pitch. As I said, we need to stop concentrating on one or two people.

[wilwarin538]

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes.

How is the Day 1 thing between me and Mnemo shady? We were technically right in thinking it was a good idea, were we not? And if my name was the only name to show up in both of the lynchings I would get how that would seem suspicious, but how does that work for me showing up in both NG votes? I thought Legate and Nog were both good to keep around, and it just so happened everyone else did too, don't see the shadyness there.

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.


Hadn't thought of that. Mnemo was the one she seemed to mention most and her back and forth with her (seeming to suspect but then defend her right after) just stood out for me, which is why I brought that up yesterDay. But of course it could have been someone else, maybe even someone she never mentioned. I had listed all her posts yesterDay so maybe I'll go back and re-read them, see if I can think of any other possibilities. Though Brinn does make sense as well.

Have to run off again, but should be back soon.

x'ed with Pitch and Nerwen, interesting points Pitch

[Inziladun]

Nilp, I'm really impressed with your work both yesterDay and toDay; seems we have an idiot savant for our village fool!

Indeed. Beneath his lunatic caperings lurks a cunning mind. Who knew? ;)

Nogrod would certainly be a candidate for such a role, but I'm very much against lynching him based on the outcome of his being Guarded.

I'll not cast a vote for Nogrod today. I agree with him that there are others deserving of some scrutiny, especially some that have largely escaped notice in the events of the last two Days.

And now [Boro] threatens the wolves it would be their end if they got him lynched? What's that supposed to mean?

I took his words as meaning they'd regret not killing him when they had the chance.

[Nienna]

Nilp:
• Lynch votes:
o Nilp
o Zil (1/4)

• Guard votes:
o No Day One
o Wilwa

Mnemo:
• Lynch vote:
o Wilwa (1/3)

• Guard vote:
o Boro (1/4)

Brinn:
• Lynch votes:
o McCaber
o Legate (7/12)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (1/6)
o Shasta

Nerwen:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (1/7)
o Legate (1/12)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (2/6)
o Zil

Shasta:
• Lynch votes:
o Lommy
o No Day Two

• Guard votes:
o Legate (3/6)
o No Day Two

Kit:
• Lynch vote:
o Brinn

• Guard vote:
o Hakon

Boro:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (2/7)
o Legate (2/12)

• Guard votes:
o Nienna (1/2)
o Nerwen

Zil:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (3/7)
o Legate (11/12)

• Guard votes:
o Boro (2/4)
o Nog (6/7)

Greenie:
• Lynch votes:
o Nog
o Legate (4/12)

• Guard votes:
o Nienna (2/2)
o Nog (1/7)

McCaber:
• Lynch votes:
o Wilwa (2/3)
o Zil (3/4)

• Guard votes:
o No Day One
o Nog (3/7)

Hakon:
• Lynch votes:
o Legate
o Legate (3/12)

• Guard votes:
o Boro (3/4)
o Nog (7/7)

Pitchwife:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (4/7)
o Legate (8/12)

• Guard votes:
o Boro (4/4)
o Nog (2/7)

Legate:
• Lynch votes:
o Wilwa (3/3)
o Zil (4/4)

• Guard votes:
o Lommy
o Nilp (2/2)

Nienna:
• Lynch votes:
o Zil
o Legate (5/12)

• Guard votes:
o Mnemo (2/2)
o Nerwen (2/2)

Nog:
• Lynch votes:
o Greenie
o Legate (10/12)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (4/6)
o Boro

Wilwa:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (5/7)
o Legate (6/12)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (6/6)
o Nog (4/7)

Lommy:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (6/7)
o Zil (2/4)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (5/6)
o Nilp (1/2)

Sally:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (7/7)
o Legate (12/12)

• Guard votes:
o Mnemo (1/2)
o Nienna

Nessa:
• Lynch votes:
o No Day One
o Legate (9/12)

• Guard votes:
o No Day One
o Nog (5/7)

Known Innocents are Underline

[Brinniel]

One thing I realised about this one-kill thing. Not only do the wolves prevent known innocents, but they are forcing us to change our strategy. If the wolves had done two kills, we would probably continue the strategy of guarding those who are suspicious to figure out their role. That means if those we suspect and choose to guard turn out innocent, the wolves lose potential lynch targets. Once those suspicious innocents are cleared, the wolves become much easier targets, especially if they are acting suspicious. But now since we can't know innocents, that strategy cannot work. So perhaps because a wolf (or more) was considered suspicious they decided to do the one-kill so that suspicious innocents who could be lynched would not be guarded and then cleared.

I should look back and see which players were attracting some suspicion in the previous Days. Right now, only wilwa and Inzil come to mind.

[wilwarin538]

So I re-read all of Kit's posts again. Her guard vote for Hakon could have been a hint that he was her dream, but I'm not really sure about that. Her Brinn vote doesn't sound like she had dreamt of a wolfBrinn. Her post about wanting to see a red flag that read WOLF, but then saying that didn't happen, still sounds to me like she was saying she didn't dream a wolf. The fact that she was so strongly against The Plan, in my mind, strengthens this. Plus she kept mentioning "Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation" but then would never mention me and just concentrate on Mnemo, who should talked about quite a bit and who we now know was innocent.

I don't know. It's tough because I don't want to just throw away Kit's posts as being unimportant, but it really doesn't seem like there's anything concrete in there. The only people she mentioned were me, Mnemo, Brinn and Hakon. Out of the four it seems the most likely dreams were Mnemo and Hakon. And then of course she may have dreamt of someone else all together, which of course doesn't give us any info.

As for who I'm going to vote for. I'm tempted to go with Inzil, since I've been fairly suspicious of him since yesterDay, I may go back and re-read all his posts. I think I'm also going to take a closer look at Boro (after what Pitch brought up).

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here at last! First some comments on toDay, then probably the list I promised already yesterDay.
Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty.How's that? While I agree with the consensus that we can't derive from the one kill a conclusion that he's guilty, we can't overlook the possibility either.
++Inziladun. It's sort of out of him and Wilwa for me at the moment.

I don't like having to vote early each Day, but DL comes at a really bad time for me. Please don't everyone just pile on my vote this time! There are a good many other people that need looking at, notably Sally, Nilp and the ones who have hardly been around– Nessa, Brinniel etc.I don't like the underlined part. It looks like resigning from the responsibility if Zil is lynched and turns out to be innocent. If you don't want others to vote for him, why vote for him yourself? It always gives me the creeps to see someone do that: pick an easy lynch target (and Inziladun surely is that, given that he's been suspected by quite many people), then vote, and end with a wish that others don't jump on it. If you suspect a person, you want others to vote him too!

List coming up. I also think I had something to comment on from yesterDay, but really can't remember what it was. Maybe I'll go and check.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[A Little Green]

CREEPY:
Nerwen - Generally she gives me good vibes (but she can be such a smooth wolf that that is no evidence I guess) but there have been a few things that disturb me about her. Her toDay's vote I commented on in my previous post, as well as a post of hers from yesterDay (I will look at that after this post) have made me uneasy.
Nogrod - Aaaargh. I still suspect him to some point, though he's been improving lately. His conduct, the way he seems to be decidedly of the opinion that an opinion differing from his own is less well thought of, makes me uneasy about him, because (like I believe I said on Day 1) an innocent needs to look at things from every possible perspective. And, on top of that, there is the NG thing. Now, I agree that no roles can be derived from the NG stuff, but it would just strike me as very odd that the wolves would let their advantage pass for a second time in a row (but then, I didn't get it the first time, either...)
satansaloser2005 - She is another I wanted to look at from yesterDay. There have been several things to make me wary of her, including her near-deadline behaviour on Day 1 and the post from yesterDay where she seemed to assume that Legate is innocent. I'll take a look at her if I have time.

NO IDEA:
alonariel - Well she'll be dead soon, won't she? Not much to say, therefore.
Brinniel - I'm so bad at reading her! She seems innocent, but she seems so every single time I play with her, regardless of her role.
Inziladun - No read.
McCaber - Likewise.
Nessa Telrunya - Who?
Pitchwife - I have a vague memory that I had something to point out about him but can't remember what it was.. So far I really can't say.
Shastanis Althreduin - Completely under my reindeer.
wilwarin538 - It would seem somehow too obvious if she was a wolf. Yet I have to admit some of the arguments against her do hold water. A difficult case.

CUDDLY:
Boromir88 - Hmmmmm. I've been sort of trusting him all along and am worried by that I don't even consider him a possible wolf. Nothing alarming this far, though.
Hakon - I disagree with him on many points but he seems innocent.
Nienna - No alarm bells.
Nilpaurion Felagund - Seems innocentish.

[Inziladun]

As I've said, I have no wish to vote for Nogrod this time. He certainly can't be considered totally innocent, but neither is he clearly wolfish.

Finding a wolf today is most imperative, as the double-kill option ought to be taken from them immediately.

I'm tempted to vote for the Fool toDay. I find his little-explained obsession with me somewhat disconcerting, and looking past the clever haikus and absurd quips might lead to something darker.

But...let's try this.

++ Brinniel

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

++ Guard Pitchwife

He's made some good points. Could be valuable.

[A Little Green]

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.What comments? I think I've missed something...

[wilwarin538]

a list, some the same from yesterDay, some totally changed:

Suspicious
Zil: his voting so far, all seems like he's trying to sound helpful and blend in, but it just doesn't seem right, may vote him
Boro: I was very sure of him until today, what Pitch said just made me curious so I read through his posts more thoroughly. He officially makes me very uneasy, and he just looks sneaky to me all of a sudden. Don't really have anything concrete that he's done badly, there's just something wrong there. Uneasy...might vote him, have to wait and see
McCaber: still seems off, probably won't vote for him, but I'm still watching him

Innocentish
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, might vote to guard her
Nienna: fine with
Sally: seems goodish, not crazy confident about her, but I'm leaning more innocent
Shasta: seems good
Brinn: very comfortable with her, might vote to guard her
Hakon: he seems to be putting in more of an effort, which I appreciate
Pitch: I've gone from being confident to unsure to back to pretty good with

Unsure
Greenie: still under my radar, don't really know how that's happened, I may look closer at her at some point if I have the time
Alona: no posts yet, probably going to be modfired so I won't worry about her too much
Nessa: only the one post from her I believe, so not really anything
Nilp: makes me a bit weary, but he's helpful and amusing, so I don't really know
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while

So that's that. I'll only be around randomly for the next 3ish hours, my vote will come then since I have to go to work about 30 minutes before the DL.

[wilwarin538]

satansaloser2005 - She is another I wanted to look at from yesterDay. There have been several things to make me wary of her, including her near-deadline behaviour on Day 1 and the post from yesterDay where she seemed to assume that Legate is innocent. I'll take a look at her if I have time.



Missed that post. Which was it? (there were so many :rolleyes:)

[wilwarin538]

Anyway, let's just say that if Legate does turn out to be innocent I'm going to feel awful. I think it would be stupid of us to let a Leg-Wolf get away so easily though.

What are you all thinking about guard-wise? I actually have a feeling about Brinn, but I'm not sure. I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate) but we won't know until Sundown if he's furry so we can't make those sort of connections until toMorrow.


This one I'm assuming? Yes, this one is a bit odd. I think Legate even quoted it and said that originally she hadn't had that part in brackets but she edited that in after. But I really don't think this is much to go on, unless this isn't the one you were talking about Greenie.

Just realised I have more posts then Sally, I guess I'm not one to talk then. :rolleyes: (regarding my last post)

[Nogrod]

Gamewise I'm really sorry, but I'm not able to continue toDay as I got a surprise visit which RL wise is quite nice... :)

Which leads me to think that toDay I should use the "abstain from voting" option as I feel I should have actually looked at the different possibilities more closely before voting. There are too many options around and I haven't read the thread since I last posted.

So

+- abstain

What I said the last time holds - but those thoughts do not have the wisdom of reading what you have said after them...

ToDay is no time for trying people out with guarding so I'll go with

++ guard Nerwen

If innocent, she would be valuable and guardable.

Make good decisons toDay! Good luck and I do hope to see you toMorrow!

[Hakon]

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

[A Little Green]

This one I'm assuming? Yes, this one is a bit odd. I think Legate even quoted it and said that originally she hadn't had that part in brackets but she edited that in after. But I really don't think this is much to go on, unless this isn't the one you were talking about Greenie.Yes, that one, and yes, Leggy quoted it yesterDay. It's not much, I know, but the point of view in it is just - wrong. Like, it was more probable that Legate was innocent, yet still she advocated his lynching as much as everybody else?

Who do you guys want to lynch? I wouldn't fancy making a throwaway vote.

[wilwarin538]

Yes, that one, and yes, Leggy quoted it yesterDay. It's not much, I know, but the point of view in it is just - wrong. Like, it was more probable that Legate was innocent, yet still she advocated his lynching as much as everybody else?

Who do you guys want to lynch? I wouldn't fancy making a throwaway vote.

Hmm, I see what you mean. Perhaps I'll bump her down to unsure.

It seems lots of people want to go for Inzil. I'm good with voting for him since I do find him suspicious (and have since yesterDay), but just the fact that this could be another bandwagon type thing (like Kit was, and like Legate definitely was) makes me uneasy. Just cause we haven't really had the best luck so far. But right now he seems to be one of our best options. Though I'd also be good with voting Boro, but I don't know how many other people would go for that, and I'd even like to see more from him before I'd be willing to do that anyway, since my suspicion of him is fairly new and it's more of an uneasyness anyway.

I don't know, it's tough. Considering how big of a group this is I'm not actually overly suspicious of many people and the ones I've gone after so far have all been innocent, so it's tough.

[Nienna]

I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Considering that we only have 2 known gifteds left this holds true for most players. Should we then lynch everyone? I do not like your reasoning Hakon.

[A Little Green]

It seems lots of people want to go for Inzil. I'm good with voting for him since I do find him suspicious (and have since yesterDay), but just the fact that this could be another bandwagon type thing (like Kit was, and like Legate definitely was) makes me uneasy. Just cause we haven't really had the best luck so far. But right now he seems to be one of our best options. Though I'd also be good with voting Boro, but I don't know how many other people would go for that, and I'd even like to see more from him before I'd be willing to do that anyway, since my suspicion of him is fairly new and it's more of an uneasyness anyway.I have nothing at all on Inzil, I suppose I should have a look at him to decide whether or not their is any sense in all that suspicion of him, but then if I have the time to look at someone I'd prefer to use it to looking at someone who is flying under the radar. Boro? Like I said I have nothing that points to him being a baddie, but then I have sort of thought him innocent and thus haven't looked for anything of that sort either..

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, got stolen away from the computer last night as I was starting on my analyses (yes, plural) so I'll finish the first three and then catch up again.


Also, fish.



EDIT: x'd with Greenie

[wilwarin538]

Boro? Like I said I have nothing that points to him being a baddie, but then I have sort of thought him innocent and thus haven't looked for anything of that sort either..

Exactly what I had done as well, but after a re-read I started to become a bit uneasy about him. But like I said, probably not enough to vote for him today, unless he does something that really stands out or Inzil does something that makes me think better of him.

x'ed with Sally....fish?

[Brinniel]

Just some highlights from yesterDay...

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know.
First post of the Day. She seems a bit careful, not wanting to go completely one way or another. Perhaps waiting to see the others' reactions before taking a side.

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf. Many people voted to guard him yesterday because he was being somewhat suspicious. We also need to keep the kills down to one now that we have lost our seer so lynching a wolf will be in our best interest.
Is the first to seem slightly certain of Legate's guilt.

I'm watching McCaber who pointed out the wolves may want to fake us out and only chose one kill, so we lynch the person we guarded the day before. Interesting theory, but most peculiar that McCaber points this out yesterday, Legate is guarded, and we awake with only one death.

Interesting catch, though it doesn't necessarily point to McCaber's guilt. His comment could've just given the wolves the idea.

I agree, though, that it does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.
I believe was the first to come up with the theory that one or the other was a wolf. Many others continued to state that theory as the Day went on.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

++Inziladun
Is the first to vote and vote for Inzil. Not sure what to think of that.

Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.
Pointing out Legate's comment about being guarded.

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.
Seems certain of his guilt and very eager to lynch him. But is that eagerness because she really did think we were going to nab a wolf or was she a wolf eager to lynch an innocent?

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.
The way she says this almost sounds like she's expecting him to end up innocent.

I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)
Legate pointed this out as a slip, though I'm not sure it is. It's just worded a bit strange, I think.

But somehow I can't believe for a moment both her and Legate are innocents. So if Legate turns out innocent for some reason I'd be looking at Wilwa the first thing toMorrow.
Interesting comment. But has he done that yet? I can't remember.

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.
Comments on the situation, but seems to restrain from giving his own opinion on the matter.

Every time I re-read everything Legate says he makes more and more sense to me. I see the merit that his ideas have. I don't think they're as likely as some other possibilities, but I do really respect the work he's put into them. I do however still think that lynching him would get us further along, if he's guilty (which I think is more probable) then that's awesome, if he happens to be innocent then it provides us with a better idea of what sort of wolves we're dealing with, and we can try to figure out who would have been more likely to agree/come up with such a risky bluff. I'm seeing that the latter is more possible then I originally thought it was, but I don't think it's as likely, so I'm willing to take the risk. Besides, if we did lynch someone else instead we would just be back to wondering what to do with Legate tomorrow (not to mention we could accidently kill another gifted), and we wouldn't really have accomplished to much regarding that subject. So it's our best bet really, despite the risk.
It is strange she shares a moment of doubt not long after the theory that either she or Legate is a wolf is discussed.


++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive
Alright. Well I'll still be aroud til the DL but I'm just gonna do this now to avoid the rush:

++ Guard Nogrod
++Guard Nogrod

for Cab's reasons.
++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.
Interesting. These votes look particularly bad from Inzil and Hakon. Very bandwagonish.

[Brinniel]

But...let's try this.

++ Brinniel

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

Where did this come from? Inzil, you seem to have this habit of latching onto other people's opinions.

[Brinniel]

Thoughts at this time...

Suspicious:
Inzil
wilwa
Sally

Keeping a close eye on:
McCaber
Nienna

Under the radar (and should be better looked at toMorrow):
Greenie
Boromir
Nessa
Pitchwife

Not sure:
Nilp
Hakon
Nogrod

Leaning Innocent:
Shasta
Nerwen

I left out alona since it looks like she will be modfired.

A lot of this is really based on yesterDay and before. I haven't had a chance yet to really look closely at toDay's posts and unfortunately, I won't have time to do so since I must go soon.

EDIT: Three posts in a row? Where did everyone go?

[Nienna]

Ok must vote as I'm not going to be around for deadline.

I'm not comfortable with Zil or Pitchwife. I've had suspicions of Zil longer than Pitchwife so I'm going to vote him today.

++Zil

and I don't know if I trust any of you right now. I would like to see Shasta kept around for another day though.

++ Guard Shasta

Edit: X-ed with Brinn

[wilwarin538]

Change of plans for me. There's a chance I may not be able to get back on later, so just in case I'm gonna play it safe and vote now:

++Inzil

and

++Guard Nerwen

If I can't make it back later then it's goodbye from me for now.

x'ed with Nienna

[Hakon]

Considering that we only have 2 known gifteds left this holds true for most players. Should we then lynch everyone? I do not like your reasoning Hakon.

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

[Nienna]

Hakon you worry me more and more each time you post.

[Pitchwife]

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.
Well observed. Indeed, I find this current lack of suspicion quite surprising myself. Can't somebody suspect me, please? I've got used to it by now. And I mean, look, I had quite a part in the NG-test discussion, I voted to lynch our Seer on Day 1 and another innocent yesterDay, I was part of the Nogrod Guardwagon, and now I start suspecting someone I voted to Guard earlier, while defending a heavily suspected Inzil, who in turn votes to Guard me! Surely a case can be made from that?

I'm more or less torn about wilwa - there have been good points made against her, but also good points by herself. And I'm not sure whether I suspect Boro enough to vote him, at least not without giving him a chance to speak for himself.
Where is our psychic apothecary when we need him?

(x-ed from Brinn's #427 onwards. Nienna, thanks for the long-missed suspicion!;) I appreciate it.)

[Brinniel]

How strange it is that two people just voted to guard both players I find innocent. A coincidence?

Well, I'm still voting for one of them anyway. Since Nerwen has been more useful to this village compared to Shasta who's hardly posted, I'll choose to keep her around toNight.

++Nerwen

Now who do lynch? I'm quite suspicious about Inzil too, but I'm a bit wary of this massive bandwagon against him. Has anyone else received votes? Oh yeah, me. :rolleyes:

wilwa looks pretty bad too, but I wonder if she would act in such an obvious manner as a wolf. Hmm..

Sally still looks suspicious, but I don't think enough to vote her.

[Brinniel]

Bandwagon or no, his behaviour is still the most suspicious to me.

++Inziladun

And hopefully this bandwagon won't result in the same disaster as yesterDay.

[McCaber]

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

[A Little Green]

I don't like this bandwagon. It looks too easy. (One can argue why I seem to want things as complicated as possible...) I still haven't managed to form an opinion on Inziladun. I don't have time to do so now.

I get the feeling that whether I join the bandwagon or not my vote will not make that big a difference. Anyhow, I will not join in, because I can see people more suspicious than him. Such as

++ Sally

Because she is the one of the people I suspect at the moment to be most likely to gain another vote from someone. I'm still considering my guard vote.

[A Little Green]

I'll guard

++ Pitchwife

Because he seems to me like a possible Night kill target and seems to have gained some votes already so won't be a waste vote.

[A Little Green]

Where is everyone? :eek:

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, got kidnapped again. Reading and finishing things up, so be back soon I hope.

Anyone love me enough to do a vote tally?


EDIT: x'd with Green

[Pitchwife]

I don't like this bandwagon. It looks too easy. (One can argue why I seem to want things as complicated as possible...)
Applause, applause! To me it looks downright appalling. Now maybe I'm just too stupid to really get what the case against him actually is, maybe I also want to think too complicated, but it just looks way too much like Zil has been set up as toDay's target by the wolves, as Legate was yesterDay, if in a different way; and I'm quite determined not to be part of the wagon this time.
True, Zil has acted in a somewhat shady and maybe a little too guarded manner (no pun intended), but it just occurred to me this might be because he's an innocent with a secret role... ? Let's not repeat the mistake we made with Kit!

[wilwarin538]

Managed to get to come on again quickly just to say 1 thing....

Just thought of something, though I'm sure it's been said already, but it'd be worth discussing tomorrow I think. The only way (atleast I see) that would make giving up the extra Night kill worth it for the wolves would be if it was really obvious that one of them was going to be guarded at some point (so that the single kill wouldn't be a sure sign of guilt). So I think we should probably consider that one of the people who has been considered to be guarded since the beginning would be guilty. Like Nog, Boro and Nerwen for example. If on Day 1 one of these saw "oh, they may want to guard me toMorrow" then setting up Legate would make some sense, so that if the next Day we guarded one of them then the single Night kill wouldn't be such a proof of guilt and they'd probably be left alive for a while.

Anyway, just wanted to put that out there. This is it for me I think.

[Pitchwife]

Good one, wilwa!

[Hakon]

Now maybe I'm just too stupid to really get what the case against him actually is, maybe I also want to think too complicated, but it just looks way too much like Zil has been set up as toDay's target by the wolves, as Legate was yesterDay, if in a different way; and I'm quite determined not to be part of the wagon this time./B]!

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

[Eönwë]

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

I meant to say "a minimum of 2-3 left". I seem to have just missed out those three words.

[Pitchwife]

Deadline approaching again...
I don't really like to vote someone in absentia, and may retract if he makes a substantial defense, but right now this is my best choice (for reasons stated):
++Boromir88
Up to now, my lynch votes both turned out rather horrid; I'm praying this won't.

As for Guarding... Bah, I really don't know. I'd like to keep Nerwen, but then I'm a little doubtful of her lately, and the Guard can't be used to test her any more. So just for a change:
++Guard Shasta
I hope he comes back to make it worthwile.

[A Little Green]

I think I'm going to bed now. I agree, though, that Wilwa's point is something we might want to look at toMorrow. And now I'll just hope this bandwagon will end with our triumph. Either way, though, it will be rich material for analysis...

[Hakon]

++Nienna

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

[satansaloser2005]

++Shasta

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting now.

Inziladun will die. There is a three-way tie in guarding between Shasta, Nerwen and Pitchwife- I will roll a die. alona will be modfired in the Night.


Update: The die has decided that Pitchwife will be saved.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, my computer froze (and ate my analyses, so I'll try to do them again toNight and hope I live) and I just got him working again. :(


EDIT: x'd with Mayor Steve

[Eönwë]

The village clamoured around.

The Day had started with the entire village wondering whether or not they should perform vigilante justice on Nogrod, the same way they had with Legate the day before, leading to the death of another innocent.

Today the conclusion was that it was probably a wolf trick and that Nogrod should be kept alive another day. Soon the talk turned to other village-people.

The fool spent many hours reciting forgotten words of the villagers in the past few days, and people were amazed by his surprising intellect and conclusion-drawing. "How about Inziladun?" he said, and cast his vote to kill thusly.

Nerwen tried to sing to the wolves instead, but lost inspiration. She soon also voted for Inziladun.

Few voted that day, and it was decided that it should be Inziladun that would die that day.

They led him out of the village, and found a tree stump. He would be beheaded with a sword. They sent Nilpaurion the Fool back to the village to get a sword for the proceedings, while the village assembled.

Nilp had looked, but all he could find was an old, slightly rusty sword. Nerwen took it from the fool's hands and brandished it fiercely. She went towards the stump, on which Inziladun's head was resting.

She raised it up, and then swung it down upon his exposed neck. But a transformation was beginning. Dark grey fur rippled across his back, and the blunt sword glanced off his tough hide, leaving only a small mark where it had cut through the skin.

He stood up, reaching full his full height, which was increasing. The fur rippled across his body, until only his face remained. And then that changed too, with his nose elongating into a snout and his mouth moulding into it. And his eyes did not turn into the eyes of a normal wolf, but into the eyes of one bred by Melkor himself in the darkness of the Days of Old.

He now stood at full height, that of a Númenorean in their days of glory. His dark fur shone in the light of the failing sun, and the colours were shifting in the sky and upon the land.

Nerwen stepped forwards, unafraid, armed with her blade, and rushed forwards. She swung it, leaving a large gash in the arm of the Werewolf, but the sword was wrested from her grasp. The wolf crumbled the blade in his powerful hands.

He went down onto all fours, assuming a more wolf-like shape in the blink of an eye, attempting to escape the circle of his foes. But as he brushed past Nilpaurion, the fool pulled out one of the daggers he used for juggling, and plunged it deep into the neck of the wolf. The wolf stood up in the more mannish form of before, and howled a long and piercing howl, before collapsing at their feet.

And slowly, as they looked, his body melted back into that of Inziladun, once a noble villager, who was forced into evil by the bite of the Great Wolf, just as the other three had been. He still had the knife stuck in the back of his neck.

Nilpaurion stepped back, shocked at what he had done.

The villagers burned the body of Inziladun, hoping that the fire would cleanse his body of the evil, and that his fëa would be able to leave the circles of the world, honourable once again.

They returned to the village square, wondering who they would guard for the night. The villagers narrowed it down to three people- Shasta, Nerwen and Pitchwife. The people each favoured their own choice, and would not give in.

So Eönwë took the traditionial six sticks. They were rectangular with two faces, one of white and one of black. A one or a two would Guard Shasta, a three or four Nerwen, and a five or six Pitchwife. Five sticks landed face up. Pitchwife would be the one to be guarded tonight.

The Night Guards went to take their place and Eönwë bid the village a good night. He left the village square last, looking at the stars that seemed to shine brighter than ever before.

So there is still hope after all for this village he thought to himself.



Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf

Night 4 has begun. People of the Night, do your stuff.

[Eönwë]

The stars shone brighter than ever before upon the village of Upper Downsbury. The darkness that had been over the village for the past few days was lifted a little, and the spirits of the people rose.

All except for one. She ran, weeping through the silent dark streets of the village. Alonariel had fallen into despair as soon as she had heard of the wolves. For the last three days she had locked herself in her bedroom, and would not leave.

The village had learned of her unusual behaviour, and would have tried to help her, were it not for the larger, life-threatening problem at hand.

Tonight she had finally left her house, running in the streets. She aimed to go into the wilderness to die, for she had lost all hope in life.

But as she made her tearful way down a dark alley, three silent shadows met her in the blackness.

"Who are you?" she asked, in fear and uncertainty.

"We are the three remaining werewolves." answered one, who had stepped forwards from the darkness.

Alona's eyes appeared glazed for a moment, and she seemed to be looking into the distance. "Please, take my life. I do not want to live any longer. There is no point for me any more."

"Are you sure, because we were planning on..."

"Yes, I'm sure."

And she stood there perfectly still. "Just don't make it hurt too much."

The wolf grinned, and leapt forwards in the darkness. But Alonariel the Forsaken realised that he would not be true, and saw the glint of malice in his eyes. She took out a small dagger from her side, and plunged it straight into her heart.

She collapsed onto the cold, cobbled floor, and within a few seconds she was dead, her life extinguished.

The wolves feasted. They hadn’t even had to fight for this one. She had just done their job for them.

“Now, shouldn’t we go onto who we meant to kill this night?” said one of the wolves, shrouded in shadow.

“No, it’s too late. Look.” The second wolf pointed off into the distance. The sky in the East was beginning to lighten. Soon the colours would start shifting, and it would be day once more.

And soon, just before the hour of twilight, the werewolves transformed back into their human forms, ready to act like normal humans again. The three each went back to their homes, closed their doors, and prepared themselves for the day to come.


Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)

Day 4 has begun. Resume posting, villagers of Upper Downsbury.

[satansaloser2005]

So....erm, the wolves just didn't send in a kill? Right?

[wilwarin538]

What? I don't get what happened. I thought they only lost a night kill from a modfire when there was still 4 of them. I'm so confused....:confused:

Anyway, good job everyone! I'll post all of Inzil's posts in a couple of minutes, cause I don't think there were too too many. Might give us some info.

[Nogrod]

That was interesting indeed!

So it was "too late" to go about their bussiness? So not a ranger-save?

Now I'm beginning to wonder whether there is something along the lines of those secret roles that can deny the kills during the Nights, or something? That would be awesome actually...

Or then they missed their own kill?

I have to wake up in five hours so I'll go to sleep now but congrats to you for yesterDay! Well done indeed! And as Greenie said at the end of the Day, there sure is lots to mull over in there... I'm finally trying to make an effort for this later in the Day.

[Nogrod]

Just one thought of yesterDay.

I think it highly unlikely that the wolves loved to vote Inzil yesterDay. There was so much they would lose if one of them was lynched. That doesn't mean though that none of them voted for him, but I'd say that if there were one(s), it would most probably be the first ones or the last ones eg. ones who thought it would not lead into any serious trouble eventually or those who thought their case was lost in regards to Inzil and they would do better to look like wolf-lynchers themselves...

I don't have the tallies with me right now, but someone should check when it started to look a) believable, and b) certain, that Inzil was getting to the gallows. That might help us looking at the possible insincere motives for the votes.

[wilwarin538]

Here we go, and he quotes people alot which sadly doesn't go along with the quoting. Left out some of the random banter posts.

Evil times, friends. A pity the Guards couldn't kill a wolf or two while they were all gathered there together. Ah, well.
Luckily, I've just put the finishing touch on a good brew; I call it Chetwood Stout. I stumbled upon the secret ingredient near the Great Road while on a journey years ago. Seems it might come in handy for the near future.
What's all this talk about our Seer coming out in the open now? I can see the argument for it, but it needs some serious thought before putting it into action. Like Kitanna said, there's probably a way for the wolves to get around it.

Voting yourself, eh Good Sir? Pray what is your motive for doing so?
Then again, it is coming from the Village Fool, so perhaps one might be amiss to read into it just now.

No, not at all. I'd expect nothing less. In fact, it might make me a bit uneasy if you didn't. ;)
I may return the favor, though. Or, I may vote to guard you, who knows?.
The Day is still young.

Well, I see there's been a deal of discussion by many, though precious little to aid me in my decisions thus far.
What's that, Boro? Pig loins? Not just now. But thank you anyway.
Though folks are thinking some of what strikes them as suspicious, which is good, I haven't seen much, if any, consideration of to whom the Guards should be assigned tonight, which is almost as important.
I'm thinking Nerwen perhaps. Music hath charms...etc.

x/d with Nog and Mnemo

No? Blast. I was quite looking forward to it. Give us an extra one toMorrow. Just not one about wolves.
Can't say as I have anything solid at this point as regarding suspicions. However, I'll go ahead with this:

++ Guard Boro

I thought of Legate, but I'd like Boro to stick around another Day, and not get up to mischief if I'm wrong about him.

As for the lynch vote...

Think I'll have to go with Kitanna. I don't care for the reasoning of her vote on Brinn.

++ Kitanna

Well, interesting turns of events, to say the least. They failed to guard you, Boro, so I trust you didn't have a hand in poor Mnemo's death! :rolleyes:

I regret being part of Kitanna's, but her vote and guard struck me as wrong, and no one else was screaming for my vote.
I haven't seen anything much of note in Kit's words, beyond what Wilwa noted about the 'red flag' comment.
Nor Mnemo's. The choice of her as a target seems rather random. I would be curious as to the details of her 'crack theory' about Wilwa though.
Nerwen, if you would be so kind, a song might cheer our hearts.
What to do with the Legate?

*takes a drink of stock ale*

I'll say one thing for Legate: he puts quite a bit of effort into defending himself, and seems adept at thinking like a wolf. Oddly enough, he finds comfort in that manic Village Fool, whose ire I've apparently drawn. Wisdom, or lamentable folly? Time will tell.
Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?



My guard vote for Boro was a bit tongue-in-cheek, a reference to the past. Also, at the time I coudn't really see the push for guarding Legate, so I picked someone who seemed innocentish, and who I wanted to see make it to Day 2. The remark about keeping him out of mischief was more of a throwaway, but also an admission that I could have been wrong in trusting him.
And like I said, Kitanna's vote had a bad feel to it, and that with her Hakon guard vote made her the only one I really could see voting for lynching.
Speaking of Hakon, has he been here at all toDay?

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.

And thanks for the guard, Nerwen. It would help me sleep, lacking a tuneful lullaby from you.

I have mixed feelings about the Legate affair. It does seem a bit too easy having him cold at this stage, and his self-defense in my eyes really has been admirable, but I really don't see any way to be sure of him than with his lynching.
Lommy makes a good point in that regardless of Legate's status, there could be wolves on any side of the argument, as this has been the main point of discussion here today with a lot said.

Not sure who to go for just yet.

The Legate thing still looks too pat somehow, though admittedly it would be unreasonable to expect people to give him a pass. But it appears he'll be getting the rope regardless of anything I do. So...

++Legate

and

++Guard Nogrod

for Cab's reasons.

You are indeed correct in that it seems the Night Guard has been rendered useless as a tool for finding innocents. That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.
I wonder, for what reason did they choose Lommy? Just getting rid of a potential threat?

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves. It has yet to come back and bite them, though with any luck that will change today.
Sorting out the Legate voters will indeed be tough, as they obviously can't all be wolves. I'll take a look at them though.

A sensible summary, Nerwen.



I think the liklihood of that depends on how much 'heat' Wilwa was under.



Certainly possible, but with no double kill last Night, and no Seer to vouch for him, we have no way of knowing that doesn't involve his death.



That's plausible, but I think it unlikely to be the prime motive.



It does seem a strong lure that tactic would hold. Known innocents=less confusion for the village. That makes the most sense to me.



Surely they won't take that as a given, after Legate was proven innocent. But confusion is a powerful weapon.



That would suugest they possess a good deal of experience and cunning, and wish to hide it.



With the sheer number of innocents remaining, I think that can be discounted for now.

Indeed. Beneath his lunatic caperings lurks a cunning mind. Who knew? ;)



I'll not cast a vote for Nogrod today. I agree with him that there are others deserving of some scrutiny, especially some that have largely escaped notice in the events of the last two Days.



I took his words as meaning they'd regret not killing him when they had the chance.

As I've said, I have no wish to vote for Nogrod this time. He certainly can't be considered totally innocent, but neither is he clearly wolfish.

Finding a wolf today is most imperative, as the double-kill option ought to be taken from them immediately.

I'm tempted to vote for the Fool toDay. I find his little-explained obsession with me somewhat disconcerting, and looking past the clever haikus and absurd quips might lead to something darker.

But...let's try this.

++ Brinniel

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

++ Guard Pitchwife

He's made some good points. Could be valuable.

[wilwarin538]

Here be a vote tally from yesterDay:

Lynch
Nilp -> Inzil
Nerwen -> Inzil (2)
Inzil -> Brinn
Nog -> abstain
Nienna -> Inzil (3)
Wilwa -> Inzil (4)
Brinn -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Sally
Pitch -> Boro
Hakon -> Nienna

Hadn't lynch voted: Nessa, Boro, McCaber, Sally, Shasta

Guard
Nilp -> Boro
Nerwen -> Boro (2)
Inzil -> Pitch
Nog -> Nerwen
Nienna -> Shasta
Wilwa -> Nerwen (2)
Hakon -> Pitch(2)
Brinn -> Nerwen (3)
Greenie -> Pitch (3)
Pitch -> Shasta (2)
Sally -> Shasta (3)

Hadn't guard voted: Nessa, Boro, McCaber, Shasta

Hope I didn't miss any in there, let me know if I did and I'll edit this post.

[Pitchwife]

*shuffles into the marketplace, head ducked between his shoulders as if preparing to dodge flung stones*
Well, what can I say? If our Mayor hadn't told us explicitly there are no cobblers in this village, my performance yesterDay surely would fit the role. Will anybody believe it wasn't intentional - that I was just honestly mistaken (again)? That Inzil frame theory I came up with yesterDay just looked so convincing to me, I was blinded to the truth. I can only thank the Valar that no more villagers were led astray; the majority voted more wisely and got rid of our first wolf. You did well!
The good thing is, with one wolf down, the danger of two night-kills is gone without ever having become reality. But I'm at a loss to explain what happened last Night. From the Mayor's report, it doesn't look like either the Night Guard or the Ranger had to intervene. Are we to believe the wolves wasted their one kill on our doomed blacksmith, who was going to die anyway? Or was there something more secret going on?
One thing I can say - I'm very confident now that Nilp and McCaber, our two surviving Inzil-voters on Day 2, are innocent. Whether or not there was any wolf in yesterDay's Inzilwagon, I don't think any of the two, as a wolf, would have voted a packmate on Day 2 without need and with a happy witch-hunt against Legate going on to hide in.
My suspicion against Boro is also lessened to some degree - I still find his behaviour before and after Legate's death somewhat worrisome, after the stance he had taken against the probability of a frame, but I'll give him credit for smelling the beast in Inziladulf so early. (Somehow, this has a déja vu feeling - where have I witnessed that before?)
Should I mention that Inzil's Guard vote for me was, in retrospect, probably an attempt to taint me in case he got lynched? He had only two votes at the time, but he must at least have reckoned with the possibility he'd end up on the chopping block. Or did he hope to survive and wanted to keep me around as an involuntary cobbler? But in this case he could simply have made sure the pack killed someone else (and I don't think I would have been a likely target anyway).
Enough monologue for now. I need to be alone for a while and meditate on my errors. That'll take a while, but I'll be back some hours before DL.

[wilwarin538]

One thing I can say - I'm very confident now that Nilp and McCaber, our two surviving Inzil-voters on Day 2, are innocent. Whether or not there was any wolf in yesterDay's Inzilwagon, I don't think any of the two, as a wolf, would have voted a packmate on Day 2 without need and with a happy witch-hunt against Legate going on to hide in.


(bolding mine)

Almost why it would be safe for them to do that, since there was no chance of Inzil getting lynched instead of Legate it would have come back later that they had done that and made them seem very innocent. I'm not saying that I suspect them, but this to me isn't enough to make me confident in their innocence.


I still can't figure out why there would just be one Night kill. Either it's one of these secret roles or the wolves are really just trying to mess with our heads. Or they forgot to send in their pick, but I doubt all 3 would have done that.

[Nienna]

One thing I can say - I'm very confident now that Nilp and McCaber, our two surviving Inzil-voters on Day 2, are innocent. Whether or not there was any wolf in yesterDay's Inzilwagon, I don't think any of the two, as a wolf, would have voted a packmate on Day 2 without need and with a happy witch-hunt against Legate going on to hide in.

I'm wary about disregarding some players because they voted for a wolf when they could have voted in a wagon. One of them might very well be a wolf. In my experience wolves tend to suspect one another and vote for each other so that they will seem less suspicious. It was clear that Zil wasn't going to be lynched on that day and that an innocent would be lynched so they didn't really need to worry about their vote. They could then vote a pack-mate who was also looking suspicious so that if that mate was lynched it would make them look good.

Basically I don't want to let a wolf slip by because they voted for a packmate.

Edit: x-ed with Wilwa. *nods*

[Nienna]

Nilp:
• Lynch votes:
o Nilp
• Zil (1/4)
• Zil (1/5)


• Guard votes:
o No Day One
• Wilwa
• Boro (1/2)


Mnemo:
• Lynch vote:
o Wilwa (1/3)

• Guard vote:
o Boro (1/4)

Brinn:
• Lynch votes:
o McCaber
• Legate (7/12)
• Zil (5/5)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (1/6)
• Shasta
• Nerwen (3/3)

Nerwen:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (1/7)
• Legate (1/12)
• Zil (2/5)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (2/6)
• Zil
• Boro (2/2)

Shasta:
• Lynch votes:
o Lommy
• No Day Two
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:
o Legate (3/6)
• No Day Two
• No Day Three


Kit:
• Lynch vote:
o Brinn

• Guard vote:
o Hakon

Boro:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (2/7)
• Legate (2/12)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:
o Nienna (1/2)
• Nerwen
• No Day Three

Zil:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (3/7)
• Legate (11/12)
• Brinn

• Guard votes:
o Boro (2/4)
• Nog (6/7)
• Pitchwife (1/3)

Greenie:
• Lynch votes:
o Nog
• Legate (4/12)
• Sally

• Guard votes:
o Nienna (2/2)
• Nog (1/7)
• Pitchwife (3/3)

McCaber:
• Lynch votes:
o Wilwa (2/3)
• Zil (3/4)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:
o No Day One
• Nog (3/7)
• No Day Three

Hakon:
• Lynch votes:
o Legate
• Legate (3/12)
• Nienna

• Guard votes:
o Boro (3/4)
• Nog (7/7)
• Pitchwife (2/3)

Pitchwife:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (4/7)
• Legate (8/12)
• Boro

• Guard votes:
o Boro (4/4)
• Nog (2/7)
• Shasta (2/3)


Legate:
• Lynch votes:
o Wilwa (3/3)
o Zil (4/4)

• Guard votes:
o Lommy
o Nilp (2/2)

Nienna:
• Lynch votes:
o Zil
• Legate (5/12)
• Zil (3/5)

• Guard votes:
o Mnemo (2/2)
• Nerwen (2/2)
• Shasta (1/3)

Nog:
• Lynch votes:
o Greenie
• Legate (10/12)
• Abstain

• Guard votes:
o Legate (4/6)
• Boro
• Nerwen (1/3)

Wilwa:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (5/7)
• Legate (6/12)
• Zil (4/5)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (6/6)
• Nog (4/7)
• Nerwen (2/3)


Lommy:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (6/7)
o Zil (2/4)

• Guard votes:
o Legate (5/6)
o Nilp (1/2)

Sally:
• Lynch votes:
o Kit (7/7)
• Legate (12/12)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:
o Mnemo (1/2)
• Nienna
• Shasta (3/3)

Nessa:
• Lynch votes:
o No Day One
• Legate (9/12)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:
o No Day One
• Nog (5/7)
• No Day Three

Known Innocents are Underlined. Known Wolves Italicized

[Nienna]

List:

Nilp: His voting looks pretty clean. I just wish he would post a little more of his thoughts and suspicions on people

Brinn: Her lynch voting is making me a little wary at the moment. Day one she random votes. Day Two she is hiding in the middle of a bandwagon for an innocent (but so, I guess, are a lot of other people). Day three she gives the last vote for a wolf. When she posted it seemed pretty sure that he was a goner so it would be a safe wolf on wolf vote. I’ll be keeping my eye on her

Nerwen: She’s been at the beginning of a few bandwagons and her lynch voting record seems suspicious and yet I don’t find her behavior suspicious. This probably means we should pay closer attention to her. She has also been pretty high on the list of people who are trusted… so why is she still alive?

Shasta: I really hope he shows up.

Boro: Lynch voted early in a few bandwagons but nothing highly suspicious

Greenie: Her voting seems to be clean. I have no real reason to suspect her at the moment.

McCaber: Hasn’t lynch voted in the bigger bandwagons. Voted for a wolf Day Two. He hasn’t spoken much… I’d like to hear more from him.

Hakon: Terrible lynch voting if I must say so myself. I think he might just be an inexperienced player making mistakes. I don’t particularly think he is a wolf…. but a lot of the stuff he says doesn’t make sense to me and seems suspicious. So I have no idea.

Pitchwife: Lynch voted midst bandwagon for innocents and then didn’t vote for a wolf. Even with this record his posting seems like a mislead innocent rather than a wolf.

Nog: His vote abstaining yesterDay was sort of weird. It doesn’t scream wolf at me though.

Wilwa: She has been a major part of every bandwagon. She has said a lot of intelligent and useful things though so I’m not particularly leaning toward wolf.

Sally: Was the last vote in lynching two innocents (one who was gifted). Her behavior just doesn’t seem like wolf-Sally behavior to me though. She’s on the confusion list.

Nessa: Who?

[McCaber]

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

[wilwarin538]

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Here we go again. :rolleyes:

Nilp: His voting looks pretty clean. I just wish he would post a little more of his thoughts and suspicions on peopleDo my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

[Nerwen]

Nerwen: She’s been at the beginning of a few bandwagons and her lynch voting record seems suspicious and yet I don’t find her behavior suspicious.

Nienna, you're not exactly being fair. I've had to vote early each Day due to timezone issues; the first two Days I cast the first vote in what was to become a bandwagon- but I don't think I can really be blamed for that. My Day 3 vote, being the second for Inzil, could indeed be said to have started a bandwagon. However, as you may recall, he was a wolf.:p

It's true I didn't properly explain why I voted him. That's because it was late and I was very tired. I'll do so now if you want.

Greenie: Her voting seems to be clean. I have no real reason to suspect her at the moment.

Votes an unknown on Day One, casts fourth vote on a known innocent on Day Two, votes an unknown (albeit a quite suspicious unknown) rather than a wolf on Day Three and calls voting said wolf "too easy". Now, none of this is particularly suspicious in context; however, I wouldn't actually single her out as "clean", myself.

Hakon: Terrible lynch voting if I must say so myself. I think he might just be an inexperienced player making mistakes. I don’t particularly think he is a wolf…. but a lot of the stuff he says doesn’t make sense to me and seems suspicious. So I have no idea.

Not sure about him. His desperate attempt to save Inzilawolf was so very blatant that normally we might take it as a sign of innocence. However, he could be an inexperienced wolf making mistakes, too.

Pitchwife: Lynch voted midst bandwagon for innocents and then didn’t vote for a wolf. Even with this record his posting seems like a mislead innocent rather than a wolf.

On the whole I'd agree. What worries me about Pitchwife, though, is not that he argued against lynching Inzilawolf per se, but that he was the one to insist that Lommy's death was an attempt to frame Zil. Now, if my theory that the kill was a double-bluff is right, you'd expect another in the pack to point out that Zil was "clearly" being set up, hence innocent.

I should say, though, that I could be wrong about that theory- they may have just eliminated Lommy for being a dangerously good player, whose death wouldn't implicate any of them in a serious way.

Wilwa: She has been a major part of every bandwagon. She has said a lot of intelligent and useful things though so I’m not particularly leaning toward wolf.

I think Inzil's turning out to be a wolf makes it less likely Wilwa is one.

Sally: Was the last vote in lynching two innocents (one who was gifted). Her behavior just doesn’t seem like wolf-Sally behavior to me though. She’s on the confusion list.

*shrugs* I wouldn't say she seems that much like innocent-Sally, either.

EDIT:x'd since Wilwa at #465.
EDIT2:fixed quotes.

[Hakon]

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

[Nerwen]

Do my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

Yeah, that's another thing, Nienna: our poor Village Fool here has been quite active, and made a case against Inzilawolf yesterDay, so I'm not sure what you mean up there.

All the same, Nilp, there's something I want to know, or rather two somethings: why were you a.) so convinced of Boro's inncence and b.) do you have any other reason for thinking Hakon was Kit's dream apart from the fact that she voted to guard him?

EDIT:X'd with Hakon.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All the same, Nilp, there's something I want to know, or rather two somethings: why were you a.) so convinced of Boro's inncence[ . . . ]I was not convinced of his complete innocence, but, as I said in that big thing *waves vaguely* he's the only one to make a proper case against Legate. He didn't just say, 'Oh, but Legate, we have to lynch you to explain this headscratcher away', unlike what most of you did.

[ . . . ] and b.) do you have any other reason for thinking Hakon was Kit's dream apart from the fact that she voted to guard him?Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

[Nerwen]

Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

Okay. I thought you might have something more definite. I don't want to lynch him if he's innocent– and he seems determined to stick his head in the noose.

I mean, his latest contribution may have just set a record for "Number of Distortions, Spurious Arguments and Generally Suspicious Comments in A Single Post".

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me.

Well, don't tempt fate, then.:rolleyes:

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

You're sure about that, are you, Hakon? The way you were sure Inzil was innocent?

Let me address your points:

1. A first vote early in the Day is not inherently either suspicious or innocent. It's just a vote. Yes, wolves may do this to stay under the radar– but innocents also often have to vote early for RL reasons. Do you actually read my posts, Hakon? I believe this is the fourth time I've explained that the DL in this game is highly inconvenient for me.

Do you know what is suspicious, Hakon? Casting the third vote on an innocent- i.e. starting a wagon. Especially if you then point at the person who cast the original vote and claim, "Wasn't me! She did it!"

Look, if my vote for Legate was "almost like I knew he was innocent", what was yours? (You also cast a first vote on him on Day One– a prima facie case for lupinity, according to you.)

2. At the time I voted Inzil yesterDay, it was, in fact, not at all clear that he was going to be lynched. I voted him because I thought he might well be a wolf. As simple as that.

3. I did not need to "escape suspicion".

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons

4. Well, I must admit, that's very unlike you, Hakon– nobody can accuse you of being involved in the bandwagon against the known wolf.

5. As for Sally– I am somewhat suspicious of her myself, as it happens. However, when your attack on her is added to the rest of your accusations, the whole post looks a lot like you're thrashing around trying to find an alternative victim.

Look, if you're innocent, Hakon, the best thing you can do now is explain yourself, not go after other people with weak reasons.

EDIT:spelling.
EDIT2:adding a comment.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tallies.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

DAY 1:

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

DAY 2:

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil- 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

DAY 3:

+10:15 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+17:28 Nerwen - Zil (Zil - 2)
+19:42 Zil - Brinn (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+20:29 Nogrod - abstain (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+21:56 Nienna - Zil (Zil - 3, Brinn - 1)
+21:59 wilwa - Zil (Zil - 4, Brinn - 1)
+22:31 Brinn - Zil (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1)
+22:52 Greenie - Sally (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1)
+23:40 Pitchwife - Boro (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1)
+23:51 Hakon - Nienna (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1, Nienna - 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa, Shastanis Althreduin, McCaber, Boromir88

[Nienna]

Nilp and Nerwen: I in no way meant to show disdain towards you for having inconvenient time zones. This is obviously not your fault. I was making a list and writing my thoughts. They were my thoughts and I do not apologize for having them.

Nilp: I find your lynch tallies to be the most useful of your posts and the most informative. Maybe it is because I like looking for patterns in things like that. So I do appreciate your posts. I guess I just like the organization and layout of things where I can see suspicion on a particular person in a certain section and you seem to place your suspicion more throughout your posts and I don't notice who exactly you think are wolves/acting suspicious. It seems a little non-committal which could be a way for a very experienced wolf to slip by us. I don't know how a Nilp-wolf acts so I just don't want to end up kicking myself later.

[Boromir88]

Now I'm beginning to wonder whether there is something along the lines of those secret roles that can deny the kills during the Nights, or something? That would be awesome actually...~Nogrod
Yes, maybe something along the lines of a person who can cause the sun to rise, thus ending the wolves night activities early if said person picks a number 1-6 and it is the same number the Mayor has rolled. The Mayor is a gambler right? That would be awesome...mind you this is just my random speculation.

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye ;))

[Boromir88]

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night. ;)

One little thing about Shasta that bothers me and I didn't get a chance to bring up, when he said this towards Legate.

1. You say "us innocents", which is generally a baddie tell, :p~Post 249
I don't like those types of suspicions, because it relies on certain words people use, and we all have common words or phrases we recycle. Just because we say I'd like to "see" more from this person or "watch" them doesn't mean we are saying "Hi. Im the seer!" Legate's usage of "us innocents" or identifying with the innocents shouldn't point to any one's wolvery or not, it's a very common thing to say in this game.

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)...but suspecting Legate in the way Shasta did, pointing out a common phrase many of us use looks bad. So, Shasta, whatcha got to say for yourself?

[Boromir88]

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now. This read maybe the best I ever get on her, and I'm feeling innocent...if not congrats Nerwen.

She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit.~Hakon
She's already made this point about Inzil, but you can say the same thing with Kitanna too. There was no indication that when Nerwen voted Kitanna was going to be lynched. If Kitanna felt she was in big danger of getting lynched, she would have revealed...she wouldn't have liked it, but she would have had to reveal.

Since it was Day 1, you could argue my 2nd vote made her a viable lynch option...fine. But take note that I was after Kitanna from the get go and any of the reasons against her were people bandwagoning onto my susicions. And that bandwagon really started against her once she left and Inzil hopped onto my suspicions.

I also think Pitch looks better than wilwa because even though wilwa could argue she was merely trying to save herself, she's also done a bang up job at being involved in the other wagons. Add on top of that Pitch's post where he says people should take a look at me (that of which I am much appreciated for because it made me aware of how crappy I've been playing and I need to get my rear in gear), but suddenly when I announce my suspicions on wilwa, she fires back latching onto Pitch's points suddenly saying the "re-reading" of my posts gave her a different feeling.

[Pitchwife]

*briefly breaks his seclusion to assimilate what's going on*
Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)
Fair enough - most of us made the same mistake. What bothered me was that when it became clear such an inconceivable frame had indeed happened, you didn't feel a need to comment on the fact but acted a bit like it never happened. But I suppose RL interference may be blamed for that.

Hakon, may I suggest you listen to Nerwen? After our shared blunder yesterDay, both of us would do well to do some thorough thinking before throwing around any wild suspicions.
As for Sally - I think her lack of a lynch vote is explained sufficiently by her #450, but her Guard vote which created that three-way tie worries me too, and thanks for pointing it out. It doesn't necessarily implicate Nerwen the way you construe it - a wolf-Sally might as well have wanted to make it harder for an innocent Nerwen to be Guarded, as an innocent Nerwen surely would have been a likely wolf-target. (By the way, Nerwen looks much better to me now Zil's guilt is revealed, and with hindsight I'd have preferred the protection to go to her.)
Why vote Shasta at all? As for myself, I remembered this by Brinn:
He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.
and it seemed a good reason to me. I'd also like to find out if those psychic powers of his really are what they're cracked up to be. It's possible Sally voted him for the same reason; and now I think of it, it's also possible that with her tallies gone to the virtual orcus, she wasn't aware of creating a three-way tie.
*back to seclusion for now*

[Nerwen]

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now.

Well, thanks.

Look, I'm curious to know what other people think of Hakon, particularly his last post, which looks very like the work of a panicky wolf to me. Note that the other two people he's accusing there are Wilwa and Sally, who have both come under a good deal of suspicion themselves, particularly the former... so what I think about them now depends on what I think about him, if you see what I mean.

Now, I've skimmed through Inzilawolf's posts, and the trouble is he's had remarkably little real interaction with, or opinion on, any living players. I mean, a more detailed analysis might reveal something, but I haven't had time for that myself.

YesterDay he voted to guard Pitchwife and lynch Brinniel. The situation then was that he had two votes, no one else had any, and Nogrod had just made a case against Brinniel. That is a major point in her favour. However, at that point Inzilawolf must have known he stood a good chance of being lynched, so we can't rule out his voting a fellow wolf to make her look better.

Inzilawolf does, though, very (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609942&postcount=350) helpfully (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609945&postcount=353) explain (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609962&postcount=366) why the pack decided to miss out on the second kill. (Unless, of course, the real reason is something he wanted to distract us from– either way, his responses here are one of the main reasons I voted him.)

EDIT:clarification; X'd with Pitchwife.

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back here and more confused than ever. I mean, no kill? Either the wolves are in confusion or want us to be.

As for Inziladun - congrats to you guys who killed him, you were smarter than I was. :rolleyes:

I think it highly unlikely that the wolves loved to vote Inzil yesterDay. There was so much they would lose if one of them was lynched. That doesn't mean though that none of them voted for him, but I'd say that if there were one(s), it would most probably be the first ones or the last ones eg. ones who thought it would not lead into any serious trouble eventually or those who thought their case was lost in regards to Inzil and they would do better to look like wolf-lynchers themselves...For once, I find myself agreeing with Nogrod in that if there are wolves among the Inzil-voters, they'd probably be among the first or the last ones. I'm quite certain at least one wolf voted for their fellow yesterDay, but I doubt even a very bold wolf would vote for a fellow who had gained a few votes but wasn't sure to get lynched. Following that logic, the ones that look the worst to me are Nerwen (2nd to vote Zil), Wilwa (4th) and Brinn (5th). Nilp, the 1st, looks slightly less so, since I have a hard time imagining a wolf voting for his fellow twice in a row. Nienna looks maybe the best of the Zil voters based on the order in which they voted. She was the third to vote him, at a time when he had two votes and Brinn had one, putting Zil in a clear lead.

Look, I'm curious to know what other people think of Hakon, particularly his last post, which looks very like the work of a panicky wolf to me. Note that the other two people he's accusing there are Wilwa and Sally, who have both come under a good deal of suspicion themselves, particularly the former... so what I think about them now depends on what I think about him, if you see what I mean.Hmmm. I've been wondering about him as well. It would seem somehow too easy, with his defence of Inziladun yesterDay and all that, but then, Wilwa and Sally are about the easiest suspects you could have, and his arguments were hasty-looking as if he was desperately trying to make a case against somebody.

I'm so confused by this game right now. Possibly back soon with a list to clear my head.

[A Little Green]

I just realised something.

The numbers look pretty good for us at the moment. 11 innocents, 3 wolves. BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves. With bad luck, we may, in other words, lose four innocents in one Day and one Night. Which is very, very bad.

I only hope Shasta and Nessa turn up, and if they don't I at least hope they are wolves. (Though that, too, would be kind of silly game-wise.)

[wilwarin538]

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye ;))

Right back at ya buddy. ;)

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night. ;)


I have to agree with this. Maybe they'd vote for one another if they thought there was no chance that person would actually be guarded, but if anyone who's been guarded ends up being a wolf then those who vote for them at certain times would look rather innocent I think.

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through. Even though I don't really get a wolf vibe from him, but I still can't get the idea that it wasn't a bluff the second time. Driving me nuts.

Hakon is kinda bugging me. He's contributing more then usual, which is great, but his suspicions are either gut feelings or things that can apply to him (like Nerwen listed).

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:
Boromir - He just seems so trustworthy and makes a lot of sense and Nilp brought up a good point about his innocence.
Nienna - She's constantly making shrewd points that make me think "A wolf wouldn't say this aloud". Good vibes this far.
Nilp - Good vibes and in addition to that, I think I already mentioned that I can't see a wolf voting for a fellow twice in a row. I believe Nilp was among the first to start suspecting Inziladun in the first place.
Pitchwife - He seems genuine and I doubt he would have defended Inziladun so openly had he been his fellow.

NO IDEA:
Brinniel - I'm still waiting for the werewolf game where I have a read on her. She feels genuine, but has fooled me before.
McCaber - Too little to go on.
Nessa - Yeah.
Nogrod - I'm confused about him. His early behaviour looked downright suspicious (I believe I have said enough about that subject already...), but he has improved a lot lately. So I don't know.
Shasta - Too little to go on.
wilwa - Another who confuses me to the point of causing me a headache.

LEANING EVIL:
Hakon - I already said why in my previous post. I'm wondering - could he be a new wolf or is it too easy to be true? (Just how many things have I called too easy during this game?)
Nerwen - Aaaaaaaargh. She is making my head ache so much. :D Last Night I suspected her quite a bit, because a) she phrased her thought, on Day 2, in a way that seemed like she knew that Legate was not, in fact, a wolf, b) she has been acting like she knew why the wolves do this and that (a bit like Zil), and c) I certainly wouldn't put it past her to give a second vote to her fellow wolf (looking good if he gets lynched but not condemning him to a certain death at the gallows). However, her posts seem so sensible that it makes me doubtful.
Sally - I believe I have already stated why I suspect her.

Actually, now that I think of it, it's curious how Nerwen and Hakon, two of my suspects, suspect each other quite vocally. Could it be wolf-on-wolf? Hakon's sudden and hasty-looking attack on Nerwen could be something they had agreed that he do. Like, they had decided last Night that Nerwen and Hakon could pull a wolf-on-wolf suspicion thing. Hrmmmmmm.

But if Hakon is guilty and Nerwen is, too, it would make me think better of Sally, since it wouldn't quite fit the picture that Hakon pulls a planned attack on Nerwen and off-handedly mentions Sally as another one he's suspicious of.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa. Happy to see someone else around!

[Nogrod]

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.Well I got the same impression as Wilwa and I don't see how it could be otherwise.

Which leaves us basicaly two chances; either the wolves missed the kill (no one PM'd it in time) or then there is a secret role that annihilated their try.

But then again that probably should not be our main concern now (wondering why McCaber thought that quote up there is the only thing he has to say to contribute).

I have a host of confusing thoughts in my mind as well and I'll try to arrange them in my head a bit before voicing them but I'd like to state the first one already now.

Where did that "guard Shasta" -movement come from? That is a thing I find reaally bothering. I mean no offence Shasta, but you haven't actually contributed in this game. Let's say the wolves actually killed fex. an innocent Nerwen, Wilwa, Boro... (eg. someone who has actually helped us a lot and here for argument's sake is innocent) and you thought it was more important to guard Shasta...

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

Okay, I'll go back to read things...


EDIT: Added the ending to one sentence which for some reason was not there... ;)

[A Little Green]

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through.Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I had something smart to say but can't remember what it was. :rolleyes: My brain is leaking.


EDIT: x-ed with my topic. :D

[Nogrod]

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all. I have just been too agreeable this far... :p

Which is kind of interesting ww-psychology -thing as I think I have really betrayed you all with not doing enough work in this game, and the result is that no one suspects me a lot and I'm alive on Day4... Interesting indeed. I mean when I really try my best to help I get lynched or Night-killed pretty early and rarely even a Day passes without bandwagons to lynch me.

Let's see if I manage to change that toDay... :rolleyes:

[A Little Green]

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.How about a no trace -kill? On top of that, no one really suspects Shasta so he doesn't have that big a chance of getting lynched - no, I can see why the wolves might have wanted to go for Shasta.

I think you have a point, though, about the Shasta-wagon coming out of the blue. Sally's guard vote, for example: where did that come from? I cheched those guard votes and it just struck me that Sally cast her guard vote at the last minute to create a three-way tie (Shasta, Pitchwife and Nerwen) in the guard votes. Could she have voted Shasta to try to avoid one of her fellows ending up being guarded? That presents us with a problem, though - why not vote the other one with three votes instead of bringing up a third candidate? It's possible, though, that Sally didn't know the votes (she even asked for a vote tally!) and thus voted one she had seen having some guard votes already. That would mean that if Sally is a werewolf, either Pitch or Nerwen could be one too.

Wait... Nerwen...

Looks far too easy. Aaaaaaargh.


EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[wilwarin538]

a list to stay organised:

Suspicious
Boro: he may disprove of this suspicion but I still have it, he just makes me uneasy
McCaber: the one random post today is kinda weird, and just him seeming to be under the radar all the time is weird
Hakon: well, I think it's been said numerous times, his gut feelings and overall illogical reasoning

Innocentish
Nerwen: still feel good about her
Nienna: fine with
Brinn: comfortable
Pitch: actually really good with him now
Greenie: liking alot
Nilp: feel pretty good about him

Unsure
Nessa: nothing
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done really suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while
Shasta: hopefully he shows up today

x'ed with nog and greenie

[Nogrod]

A few words on the subject of Day2's voting.

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Legate doesn't of course vote for himself and we know that Lommy was furious about us lynching Legate - well consistently and arguingly against our interpretation of his status anyway.

Now as Nilp voted much earlier than anyone else and McCaber at the end I'd say they both could have acted thus as wolves. Which is not to say they are my prime suspects or anything like that but just that there is nothing to wash them clean there.

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

But then again, unlike Nienna, I have found Nilp's posting the most insightful and wouldn't like to see him lynched at least at this point when I believe we have better candidates on offer.


Another thing that I thought looking back at the voting lists, and which has been speculated toDay, is the wolves' interest of voting their own to be guarded.

We have quite nothing concrete to share on the wolves' actions. Boro, me and Pitchwife know it for ourselves whether Inzil voted for his fellow to be guarded. Now looking at the thread in general, it looks the most like he followed the general trust of the villagers. So he tried to be as uncontroversial as possible? And at least in my case he was not voting for a mate to be guarded.

I do think it would not have been in their interests to get one of them guarded whilst there were four wolves left. With a villager guarded they had the initiative to choose what to do and the suspicion or insecurity following (which I see Wilwa restating once more) would be bad for them.

Now on whose decisions the guarded have been chosen (ie. whose votes decided) is another question to be sure.

But now as the double-kill option is over and done with the wolvish intentions might be different (with the double-kill option: guard vocal innocents and thus make them look suspicious to be lynched). Now they'd not like to see vocal players guarded as that would make them unkillable during the Nights.

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

[wilwarin538]

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Hmm, that's actually brilliant. Like toDay if we were to guard Nessa and then she got modfired, really we're not actually guarding anyone, which the wolves would like. Still confused about that rule though, if Nessa or Shasta is modfired today the wolves don't get a kill?? Or am I still totally off on this?

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Have to say that out of Nilp and McCaber, McCaber for me is the one who looks the most suspicious, since his vote was at the end of the Day when it was obvious Legate would be lynched (almost like he knew Legate would be innocent and didn't want to be a part of it, for fear of that making him look bad). I think one of them could be a wolf (probably not both), cause for all of the wolves to vote Legate (even though that would hide them well) just seems unlikely.

[Nogrod]

Looking at how little he has posted I found this an interesting post:
Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.
:smokin:


Still confused about that rule though, if Nessa or Shasta is modfired today the wolves don't get a kill?? Or am I still totally off on this?I think you are still confused about it. I understood it that a modfire would reduce the wolf-kills by one only when they had a chance of two kills - which is reasonable whilst the other interpretation would not be. But hopefuly Eönwë confirms this issue at some point.

[wilwarin538]

I think you are still confused about it. I understood it that a modfire would reduce the wolf-kills by one only when they had a chance of two kills - which is reasonable whilst the other interpretation would not be. But hopefuly Eönwë confirms this issue at some point.

K, yeah, that's how I understood it. But McCaber's post made it sound like they lose a kill even when there's less then 4 of them. So that's why I was mixed up. I must have just misunderstood him.

[Nerwen]

Following that logic, the ones that look the worst to me are Nerwen (2nd to vote Zil), Wilwa (4th) and Brinn (5th). Nilp, the 1st, looks slightly less so, since I have a hard time imagining a wolf voting for his fellow twice in a row. Nienna looks maybe the best of the Zil voters based on the order in which they voted. She was the third to vote him, at a time when he had two votes and Brinn had one, putting Zil in a clear lead.

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.

Hmmm. I've been wondering about him as well. It would seem somehow too easy, with his defence of Inziladun yesterDay and all that, but then, Wilwa and Sally are about the easiest suspects you could have, and his arguments were hasty-looking as if he was desperately trying to make a case against somebody.

He looks too obviously wolfish to be real, almost, but that could be on purpose. It's happened before... I don't know.

Where did that "guard Shasta" -movement come from? That is a thing I find reaally bothering. I mean no offence Shasta, but you haven't actually contributed in this game. Let's say the wolves actually killed fex. an innocent Nerwen, Wilwa, Boro... (eg. someone who has actually helped us a lot and here for argument's sake is innocent) and you thought it was more important to guard Shasta...

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

It would make sense if the wolves wanted him guarded so they were free to kill contributing players (another black mark against Sally). I wonder what went wrong?

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa at #487.

[Nerwen]

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

As I said to Greenie– that's not more suspicious. It just doesn't prove he's innocent. Besides, it was the same wolf each time, and others suspected him on Day 2. (See my guard -vote.)

I'm not saying Nilp can't be a wolf, understand– but we need to do something about this bad-votes-are-good-and-good-votes-are-bad meme. It's getting out of hand.

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Agreed on that one.

[satansaloser2005]

a list to stay organised:

Suspicious
Boro: he may disprove of this suspicion but I still have it, he just makes me uneasy
McCaber: the one random post today is kinda weird, and just him seeming to be under the radar all the time is weird
Hakon: well, I think it's been said numerous times, his gut feelings and overall illogical reasoning

Innocentish
Nerwen: still feel good about her
Nienna: fine with
Brinn: comfortable
Pitch: actually really good with him now
Greenie: liking alot
Nilp: feel pretty good about him

Unsure
Nessa: nothing
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done really suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while
Shasta: hopefully he shows up today

x'ed with nog and greenie

I didn't even make your list. :(



Anyway, I thought I was caught up but there's 13 pages instead of 12 so I obviously skipped. *blushes* I'll go read that now but wanted to let you know it might be a quiet Day for me. My internet's been acting up off and on so I don't know if I'll be here.

Also, a quick explanation of my guard vote yesterDay, as I wasn't able to give one at the time. First, can I kick myself for tying things up further? *headdesks* I had no idea what the votes were, unfortunately, but I thought Shasta was a good choice because, to me, he was a good person to keep around if innocent and also a good person to block from Night activity because I suspected him a little bit. Kind of a best of both worlds thing, which now is an irrelevant argument because Dun is dead (yay, by the way, and nice job to you all) but that's what was going through my head at the time.

Oh, and a completely crack theory. Is it possible that we blocked the only wolf who had time to get on the Downs last Night? I say this because I know some people have been busy/quiet and if Pitchie was the only one who could get on the Downs but he was blocked that could explain the lack of Night kill. (I'm not saying I believe this, but it is a possibility. Heck if I know.)

Now, off to have some ketchup. Yum. :p

[wilwarin538]

I didn't even make your list. :(


Whoops. I had meant to put you under UNSURE.

[satansaloser2005]

Okie dokie, I'm caught up, and shall now try (again) to analyze some peoples. YesterDay I had an analysis of Shasta and Cabbie and someone else but it got eaten when my computer crashed, alas. I might do Cabbie again (honestly, I hadn't finished him at the time so I'd still like to gather my thoughts there) and then see how things look from there.



EDIT: x'd with Wilwa. Ah, lovely then. :)

EDIT 2: First I'm gonna do a vote count though. So there.
EDIT 3: By vote count I mean vote tally. Other people have done one but I've my own system, doncha know. :p
EDIT 4: Just to say I'm done editing this bloody post.

[Brinniel]

BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves.
Well yes, Shasta could be modfired if he doesn't vote toDay, but Nessa still has both toDay and toMorrow to vote since she did on Day 2. I know, it's hard to remember since it was her only post. :rolleyes: But yeah, all this potential modfire that could occur... *grumbles*

[Brinniel]

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

[Nienna]

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

He didn’t have a lot of time to analyze so he went with his gut. Not the best because his gut was wrong but not unheard of for Day One.

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

Mentions how we are probably going to lynch Legate even though he is professing his innocence which can very well be a sign of guilt. It seems he is trying to dissuade people from listening to Legate. This was kind of a crucial time before Legate had too many votes so that is interesting. I don’t know… something about the wording and such in this post strikes me as odd. He seems like he is distancing himself from the village.

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

Votes early even though he says he will be back by deadline. 3rd vote for Legate so at this time there could still be time for a different lynch candidate. Makes a random statement about Alona lurking that looks like a possible set up for if she did happen to come back… slightly unsettling.


Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609880&postcount=333))… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609866&postcount=319))

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Pretty self-explanatory…

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Logical.

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Doesn’t want to lynch Zil. Thinks Pitchwife is suspicious for really faulty reasoning.

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Still doesn’t want to lynch Zil but no longer finds Pitchwife suspicious… actually votes to protect him.

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

[lynch vote]++Nienna[/lynch vote]

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Really really doesn’t want to vote Zil so votes for me instead… based on a gut feeling which has been proven a faulty way of reasoning already this game.

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

[Nerwen]

The Shasta Voters:

1.Nienna.
Day 1: Lynch Inzil, guard Mnemo (2).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (5), guard Nerwen (2).
Day 3: Lynch Inzil (3), guard Shasta (1).

2.Pitchwife
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (4), guard Boro (4).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (8), guard Nogrod (2).
Day 3: Lynch Boro, guard Shasta (2).

3.Sally
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (6), guard Mnemo.
Day 2: Lynch Legate (12), guard Nienna.
Day 3: Lynch Nobody, guard Shasta (3).

Following Sally's own system, innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined.

Points against them:

Well, all three were Legate voters–who wasn't? However, Pitchwife and Sally also cast very bandwagonning votes on Kit.

Pitchwife argued strongly against lynching Inzilawolf, and stressed the theory that he had been framed. I'm inclined to think Pitchy a misguided innocent, but you never know...

Sally has done little except post tallies, a favourite lupine trick for appearing to contribute more than you're doing.* She also brought Shasta to a tie.

There is nothing I can think of against Nienna, unless it's that she might indeed be a little too good to be true. *shrugs*

X'd since Brinniel at #497.
*Yes, I know I'm doing it now.