Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Eönwë]

A thin mist surrounded the ground around the podium set up in the village square, as Eönwë, the mayor, addressed the village. "People of Upper Downsbury," he called, "You have been gathered here for a very important purpose."

He had spent many years planning this. It had begun many years ago, when wolves had first terrorised the little village of Upper Downsbury, located as it was, surrounded by the wilderness of Minhiriath, known by none but the rangers. It had been the rangers who had saved them in the end, before the wolves had killed the entire village.

He had only been a child at the time, and now he was last living person to remember the attack. His uncle's friend, Formedacil had gone with the rangers for many years, to live among them. They had accepted him after it was revealed that he had managed to fend off a werewolf for a while from his wife and children. On his travels he had hunted and faced many evil creatures, including werewolves, and became a famed hunter among the people of the village. He had returned to live among them again for the last twenty years, a retired old man.

Eönwë scanned across the crowd, looking at the men, women and children that made up the town. He would reveal to them the terrible truth, and the solution that he had come up with that fateful day many years ago, the day when the werewolves had attacked.

"As a few of you may be aware," he began, "Our most dreaded nightmare has become a reality." He paused. "Wolves have come to our beautiful village again." Eönwë paused, let the gasps of shock and terror among the population subside. "But this time they are different.

"A few weeks ago our shepherds were complaining about lost sheep, but most of us ignored their warning, at our own peril. Then, last week, our dear famed and experienced werewolf hunter Formendacil was found dead." It had been a sore blow to the village's pride. Formendacil had died of unknown causes that night, but his yellowish waxen skin led most to believe that some foul illness had taken him. "It was no mere illness that killed him. It was a poisonous bite from a werewolf."

He paused to gather himself. "I believed that this may have been a survivor from the last attack, seeking vengeance for his lost packmates. He snuck in and murdered poor Formie in his sleep. The old man had no chance against against such an attack by such a foe. I was aware of this at the time, and tracked him. I managed to find his den among the scrub and bushes of the wilderness, and there he stood, grinning at me with his long yellow fangs and his grizzled face. He had not become weak in his old age, but tougher and more cunning. But in the end, I slew him." Eönwë lifted a sack, and out of it raised the monstrous and grisly severed head of the beast. "He was not a mere Warg like those that attacked us last time, but a true Werewolf, a descendant of Drauglin, and almost as cunning.

"And at that time I thought that the ordeal was over. But now I fear that the beast may have bitten some among our number, causing them each Night to transform into wretched beasts, into his form. Tonight, we shall see whether my fears are true or not, for if they are, then the wolves will be filled with an insatiable bloodlust, and will not stop killing until all the village is dead, before turning on themselves. But these wolves are not dumb beasts. Each day they will masquerade as one of us, ans will pretend to be innocent. If my fears prove correct, then each Day we must select who we think is most likely to be a one of our lycanthropic foes. We will execute them at dusk, and hopefully, we shall be rid of them by the end of this week.

"In addition, I have taken an extra precaution," this was his plan. "As you know, over the past few years, we have trained guards for our city, under the guidance of the late Formendacil. From now on they will be deployed each Night to protect whomever we think to be the most innocent of us. Though the wolves will also know and will avoid killing them, and perhaps kill another, it will help to keep those who we find our more innocent. And if that person is a wolf, then he or she will not be able to join his or her fellows, which will lead to less carnage in the Night. In this way, we can save those who we trust for longer. However, the guards will not protect the same person twice in a row.

We will start with these two systems tomorrow, when we have time to think and we will not make such rash decisions. Also, I fear that the wolves are among us now, so I will say this to them: We will find out who you are eventually, and then we will kill you." But will it be too late by then? he thought to himself.

The speech ended, he bid everyone a good Night, and all but a few slept in peace.

[Eönwë]

Eönwë left the village square last. By now the mist had become knee-deep, and thicker than before. A chill wind blew from the East, and Eönwë shivered in the dark.

He nodded to the Guards at his door. They would guard his house tonight, until a proper vote was taken tomorrow.

He tried to get to sleep. But as he lay in bed, he wondered how his scheme would play out, and how the following days of trouble would unfold. Was it really worth it? Would it really help increase the chances of their survival? Only time would tell...

Eönwë finally drifted off into a troubled sleep.


Night 1 has begun. Wolves may plot amongst themselves, and those that must send their picks for the Night must send their picks.

[Eönwë]

As the rest of the village slept, there were some who stirred in the darkness. Four there were, who transformed in pain and anguish into the foul form of the Werewolf. Those four crept out of their houses and met in the village square. They stood there for a while, their powerful hearts thudding in the darkness.

---

There others too. One found that they had the ability to see into the hearts of others, and check what they were in the Night.

There were also two more. Both had been trained by the late Formendacil in secret, without the other knowing. To one, he had taught the art of hunting wolves, and to the other, the art of protecting people from the evil beasts. They would be ready...

---

As the wolves stood there in the square, they were filled with energy, and with the desire to kill. As they stood there, one of them spoke, "If we're going to do this, then we need to make it easier for ourselves. That Eönwë's scheme is going to make it much harder on us."

And so they formed a plan. Tonight, they would attack together, as one, but every night afterwards, while they all remained alive, the Werewolves would split into two groups of two to attack their unsuspecting victims.

There was still pitch blackness as the wolves, silent as the shadows of the night, crept upon their next target. Against the darkness, they were silhouetted, their figures picked out in the silver light of the moon.

They reached the house that they were looking for. It was one of the larger, more luxurious houses, second only to Nogrod's. They opened the gate and crept up to the door, blending in with the shadows. But as they reached the door, an arm from either side shot out to meet them. Armed with halberds, two Guards stepped forwards and crossed their weapons, blocking the way to the door.

"You shall not pass," they said, in unison.

"We are the werewolves," one werewolf said, "we will go wherever and kill whoever we please."

"You shall not pass," they said again.

"If you do not stand aside, we will kill you as well," said another of the lycanthropes.

"We move for no wolf," the Guards said, in unison.

"We do not wish to kill you, we just want to get past you to Eönwë," said one of the other wolves.

"Then you shall die," replied the Night Guards.

One wolf, believing this to be a bluff, charged forwards, claws and teeth at the ready.

In one fluid movement, one of the guards swing his weapon, and plunged it deep into his leg. The afflicted werewolf howled in pain.

"Run away, run away!" shouted one of the wolves, and soon the cry was echoed by them all.

"That... that really hurt!" said the wolf with the impaled leg.

"Don't worry," said another, "It will heal itself when you transform back"

"Ok, so from now on we do not mess with the Guards," said the maimed wolf, clutching his leg.

"Ok, so we will avoid them, but there will still be others to kill," said one of the uninjured wolves.

They each went back to their respective houses, and stayed there until daybreak, when they transformed back into normal-looking humans, which would have been impossible to believe could have been wolves that night if one had not seen them.

---

That morning, Eönwë once again called the village together.

"Last night," he began, "the wolves tried to attack me. But luckily, the Night Guards were there to save me. Though they attacked together, it does not mean that they will always do so. They will probably try many cruel ways to attack us in the night. We must be on our guard."

"Today, you, people of Upper Downsbury, must decide who will we be Guarded; and who you think is most likely to be a wolf. This person will be executed," there were gasps from the crowd "at dusk today."

"Let us begin."

Living:

The Mayor:
Eönwë

The Villagers:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
Kitanna- the village hermit
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Mnemosyne- the village coquette
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener
wilwarin538- the village barmaid



Day 1 has now begun. You may now start posting.

[Boromir88]

When did Nogrod sign up for this game?

Anyway, Mr. Mayor I have brought to court the finest pig as a tribute. May your kitchens not be empty for several weeks. :p

[Mnemosyne]

Right.

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.

Thank you for posting before me, Boro; people who post first with cunning plans are startling Day 1 lynch targets and I'd hate to put myself on the chopping block so early.

Not that anyone would want to lynch a face like this... :Merisu:

[Eönwë]

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.


It is not permissible for the same person to be Night Guarded for two or more Days in a row.

And thank you for the pig, Boro ;).

[Mnemosyne]

Darn.

Take away all my fun from me, will you?

Unless we wanted to coordinate saves with the Ranger, which really is not a half bad idea when you think about it...

[wilwarin538]

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.


This plan sounds way to good and way to easy to be true. There must be a rule against us protecting the same person that many time in a row, though I suppose if we can't then we could just alternate with the Ranger,one Night we protect Seer next Night Ranger does, and hope the the Ranger can stay alive.

Will go double check rules after this.

Not that anyone would want to lynch a face like this...

I would.....:p;)

[Kitanna]

I suppose I need to abandon my hermit lifestyle for a while. *sigh*



The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.


This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

Edit: Eonwe clarified the rules...

[wilwarin538]

Xposted with Mod and Mnemo earlier

Thank you dear ModGod for clarification, and Mnemo and I think the same, perhaps I won't lynch you now, :D;).

x'posted with Kit

[Mnemosyne]

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

It's all up to the Seer and whether s/he wants to come out at this point.

Of course, likely a wolf has already thought of this and would reveal first and/or counterreveal. I don't know how we'd proceed then, unless we wanted to protect both (Ranger one and the village the other, then alternate).

But IF there were a way of knowing the Seer is real, then all we need is a simple majority of ++Guard votes. The wolves would probably be too willing to go along at this point. Next night everyone would vote according to his/her conscience and the Ranger would make the save.

My point is that normally when new and/or weird rules are introduced into the mix the wolves profit from the confusion that results.

But I think in this situation we've been handed a genuine boon, if we can learn how to use it properly.

[Mnemosyne]

I would.....:p;)

I knew it! You just want to eliminate the competition, don't you?

*thinks of many unpleasant Shakespearean words to cast upon the barmaid profession in general*

[Kitanna]

Unless we wanted to coordinate saves with the Ranger, which really is not a half bad idea when you think about it...

This plan sounds way to good and way to easy to be true. There must be a rule against us protecting the same person that many time in a row, though I suppose if we can't then we could just alternate with the Ranger,one Night we protect Seer next Night Ranger does, and hope the the Ranger can stay alive.
This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

And what if something happens to the ranger early on? Then we have the seer for two days and then it's curtains. If that happens early on, the village will have to go on without the aid of the seer's dreams. Plus by that point a few innocents will be vulnerable.

[Mnemosyne]

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

I did not say that the Seer should reveal his/her dreams each Day. That would be the equivalent of sending the Wolves a kill list. So, not unless we nab a wolf. In the meantime, though, if we have a protected Seer we do know that we will be getting dreams to our advantage, and if the Ranger dies then the Seer can reveal all of his/her dreams to the village. Hopefully at that point (depending on dream picks vs. kill picks) we would have enough Known Innocents to keep the wolves busy killing them off while we can focus on the unknowns.

[wilwarin538]

Hmm...then perhaps we should just wait and see for the Seer to see this, and then maybe they should just come forward if they already have a wolf, or hold this off until they do have one. And if this plan is agreed upon then they should only reveal the roles of wolves, and not draw attention to any known innocents. Unless we lose the Ranger after the Seer already has come forward, then they could reveal all of their known innocents then.

Haha, I'm confusing myself so much. :rolleyes:

[wilwarin538]

Oh my, Mnemo, we be the same person...:p

[Mnemosyne]

Oh my, Mnemo, we be the same person...:p

I beg your pardon! We both may exert our wiles on the other sex, but I do so with matrimony in mind and not merely pleasure. A good coquette knows how to be charming and honorable... well, mostly honorable. :Merisu:

I may have to vote you simply because of the threat you pose to my ambitions.

[Boromir88]

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

I's ready to do mysa part and be an attractive kill choice. I never knew wolves who would deny themselves nice, thick and crispy bacon. Mmm :p

Oh and I guess that means no one should waste their time trying to save me at night...Elles ont comprend? (If that is wrong, please don't correct me).

[wilwarin538]

I beg your pardon! We both may exert our wiles on the other sex, but I do so with matrimony in mind and not merely pleasure. A good coquette knows how to be charming and honorable... well, mostly honorable.

I may have to vote you simply because of the threat you pose to my ambitions.

Hahahahaha

Humph , I do not exert my wiles, they just come to me naturally with no effort on my part :Merisu:, probably more for the ale then anything else, :p


Elles ont comprend? (If that is wrong, please don't correct me).

Hmm, can't even correct you cause I have no idea want you're trying to say exactly. :p

[Boromir88]

Hmm, can't even correct you cause I have no idea want you're trying to say exactly. :p

Just asking if we understand eachother. ;)

Now really you and Mnemo should simmer a bit, because talking about eachothers wiles makes me nervous *points to avatar*

et au revoir.

[wilwarin538]

Now really you and Mnemo should simmer a bit, because talking about eachothers wiles makes me nervous *points to avatar*


She started it *points* :p. I was just pointing out that we kept coming to the same conclusions, she brought up the W word, :p.

I'm so bored right now, was really hoping there'd be more people around, cause I won't be around too much tomorrow.

[Inziladun]

Evil times, friends. A pity the Guards couldn't kill a wolf or two while they were all gathered there together. Ah, well.
Luckily, I've just put the finishing touch on a good brew; I call it Chetwood Stout. I stumbled upon the secret ingredient near the Great Road while on a journey years ago. Seems it might come in handy for the near future.
What's all this talk about our Seer coming out in the open now? I can see the argument for it, but it needs some serious thought before putting it into action. Like Kitanna said, there's probably a way for the wolves to get around it.

[Inziladun]

No one here?
Bah. I'm off for a pint.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hammers and pebbles.
Some baubles for a penny.
Won't you vote for me?

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Inziladun]

Hammers and pebbles.
Some baubles for a penny.
Won't you vote for me?

++Nilpaurion Felagund

Voting yourself, eh Good Sir? Pray what is your motive for doing so?
Then again, it is coming from the Village Fool, so perhaps one might be amiss to read into it just now. :p

[Boromir88]

Nilp! Welcome back to this institution that you, yes you, have gotten me addicted to. :p

Inzil, sorry, it's happening again. I'm getting those wolf feelings about you...wouldn't mind if I voted for you today would ya?

Oh, and Nilp has an uncontrollable tendancy to want to lynch himself, just so you are made aware of that.

[Inziladun]

Inzil, sorry, it's happening again. I'm getting those wolf feelings about you...wouldn't mind if I voted for you today would ya?

No, not at all. I'd expect nothing less. In fact, it might make me a bit uneasy if you didn't. ;)
I may return the favor, though. Or, I may vote to guard you, who knows?.
The Day is still young.

[Nienna]

Hello all! I have successfully wedged myself some clay and now I go to make something fabulous.

I have no real thoughts on the day except that Mnemo's suggestion worries me. Gifteds revealing this early is never a good idea. Maybe in a few days or when we are getting desperate but not on Day One.

[satansaloser2005]

Just asking if we understand eachother. ;)

Now really you and Mnemo should simmer a bit, because talking about eachothers wiles makes me nervous *points to avatar*

et au revoir.

Erm, awkward. I'll be having bad dreams tonight for sure.

Hammers and pebbles.
Some baubles for a penny.
Won't you vote for me?

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I've missed you, my prince. Oh, so much. *sighs* I wonder how much he'll hate me if I use my guard vote on him? :p


EDIT: x'd with a lousy no good she-wolf....erm, I mean Nienna :p

[Nerwen]

Nerwen had been very quietly strumming her lute. Now she came forward, saying,

"Good people, this is indeed a dark time– but how about a song to help you forget your troubles?"

As her practiced fingers drew rippling arpeggios from the strings, she began to sing,

"There were four wolves sat under a tree,
Down a down, hey down, hey down
They were as grey as they might be,
With a down, hey down.
Then one of them said to his mate,
'Who shall we for our supper take?'
With a down, derry, derry, derry-"

Seeing the stony faces of the villagers, she faltered. "Er...perhaps that wasn't the best choice of song... under the circumstances..." Under her breath she added,
"These peasants... they just don't appreciate good music!"

Edit: spelling.

[Brinniel]

No need to hold your breaths any longer; the witch has arrived. :)

I am a bit surprised though to see so few posts; I would've expected to see more in over nine hours' time, but perhaps I'm spoiled after Boro's game.. Not that I can complain though, since my time here too will be a bit restricted due to RL circumstances.

I should be around for a little while longer before bedtime, so if anyone wants some herbs or potions, do speak up. I am known to brew a mean love potion. :Merisu:

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Wassail, wassail.

*hic*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

"Well well well," with a jovial smile, the village broker strode amidst the gathered folk, then he stopped, carefully listening to what's been said. After a while, he drew a pipe out of his pocket. Then, he retrieved a purse of pipeweed and started filling his pipe. Lastly, he lit his pipe with a match and watched the blue smoke rising into the sky.

"Chetwood Stout?" he turned suddenly to Inziladun. "It has to be good, I am sure, but that makes me think... have I ever told you about the ale they serve in the "Badger & Bridgeman" Inn near Tharbad? A really good that one, they are using some spice from the South, but I know the innkeeper well and he told me what it is, so if you wished to widen your repertoire a bit more, I could arrange a supply of that spice for you as well... Maybe a good way to please our local innkeeper, isn't it?" With a wink, he let out another cluster of smoke rings out of his pipe.

"And oh my good Nilp," he said, turning to the local fool. "Are you sure you feel safe here? Don't you want to assure that you have a proper funeral after this is over? I know that you don't have too much money on your own, but say, wouldn't it be better to be on the safe side? I know some people who would sell you a nice (although used) coffin with a discount..."

He turned to discussing Mnemosyne and Wilwa. There, he frowned.

"I would not really be so hasty," he interfered, knocking the trunk of a nearby tree, "with all this talk about revelations. It is a good idea by itself, but it all depends just on good luck. Even if all worked well, if the Seer catches no Wolf in some three consequent days (see below), he or she may as well die without being of much of a real use.

And anyway, the main issue would be this: Simply put, for the plan to come into action, we would need the Seer coming out and the Ranger coming out. First, of course counter-claims will start to rain on us at that very moment, and before we decide whom to trust, both of our Gifteds may be as good as dead. Or at least the Ranger, most likely. In that case, we could buy the Seer one Night at maximum with our Night Guard. And even if it's all okay and we have a clear Seer and a clear Ranger, the most likely course of events would be, that the Ranger protects the Seer one Night, while we protect the Ranger (of course), but the next Night, while the guards are guarding the Seer, the Wolves attack the Ranger and kill him, and on the next Night, they go for the Seer, and that's it. Not really that different from a normal situation with one Ranger, don't you think."

"And as for Seer-revealed innocents, if the Wolves still have the double kill by then, they can be as well all wiped out over a couple of nights."

"That's for the contribution to such ideas. I think the best choice would be as usual, for the Seer to wait until he or she has something to offer, and then we can protect him or her for a few Nights. But it's all upon the Seer. I just think we should proceed with a bit more care and not let ourselves succumb to profitable-looking offers, which seem to be given ourselves by the Mayor's laws." And he smiled, like a man who is well-acquainted with profitable-looking offers of all kinds.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen struck a dramatic chord.

"Perhaps I can be of help in other ways. Not only did I make an extensive study of werewolf lore in Minstrel School, but my wanderings have led me to stay in afflicted villlages before this.

Now, strange to say, many of these villages were also blessed with Seers and Rangers. Almost always, when the Seer was exposed too early, ill befell the village, and your friendly minstrel was forced to resume her travels in a hurry.

The charming young lady Mnemosyne's plan might work a few Days from now; at the moment I think it's too much of a risk."

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The one who protects
No need to reveal himself.
A fish in the sea,
Unless the sharks are lucky,
In our numbers he'll be safe.

[A Little Green]

Anyway, Mr. Mayor I have brought to court the finest pig as a tribute. May your kitchens not be empty for several weeks.Sounds like some work for the village butcher, eh?

I agree with Nienna and Nerwen and Legate and who not that it would be more of a risk than a gain to reveal the Seer this early, even with the Night Guard thing. (Read Legate's post for my train of thoughts, for he put it far clearer than I could have. ;)) Actually I'm feeling a bit worried about Mnemo at the moment - or rather, wondering whether I should be. It just popped into my mind that a wolf might like to try and get the Seer out in the open as soon as possible.

As for Nilp voting himself - somehow I'm not surprised. :rolleyes:

Nerwen, are you still around? Is anyone around? I'd love a chat with someone but I feel stupid chatting with myself.


EDIT: x-ed with Nilp

[A Little Green]

Wait... x-ed? I x-ed with someone! Hello Nilp! Still around are you?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oy vey, it's a talking cleaver!!!

[A Little Green]

Oy vey, it's a talking cleaver!!!Talking about me, are you? :( Well Nilp. Why exactly did you vote for yourself?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Why does the sun rise?

Because I put yeast in it. :p

[A Little Green]

Why does the sun rise?

Because I put yeast in it.Last time I looked you were the fool, not the baker... :p

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm also not the village thief, but I stole a pair of your knives. :p

[A Little Green]

I'm also not the village thief, but I stole a pair of your knives.You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.

[satansaloser2005]

You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.

Or the baker, or the candlestick maker. Not that we have one of those, but still. He was a sweet old man, the candlestick maker. Always used to take out a book a week, brought them back like clockwork he did. Granted they were a bit singed sometimes but I suppose that can't be helped, bless him. Besides, I'm a bit of a pyro. As long as it's not books being burned, of course.



*looks at time, flails* Going back to bed now I think. Either that or reading. :Merisu:

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me. ;)

[wilwarin538]

And anyway, the main issue would be this: Simply put, for the plan to come into action, we would need the Seer coming out and the Ranger coming out.

Actually, the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal. He would just go along with the plan and we would all just have to hope we don't lynch him or that they don't get killed by the wolves. Then, if the Ranger does die, if it was a Night where they were protecting the Seer then we'd have atleast one more Night out of the Seer and can get all of their dreams (even the innocent ones) and if the Ranger dies on a Night when the village has protected the Seer then we can get them to reveal then. There's always the possibility, that the Seer could die toNight. 19 players (since we're gonna lynch someone) - 4 wolves = 15, 2 kills, so like a 1 in 8 chance (if I can do math properly) of anyone dying. That's actually not very small.

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

So those are my thoughts. I'm only going to be around for about an hour, cause I have to go to work. I have an unexpected order in today, so I will be there 2 hours longer then expected, which means I'll probably only be here for the last hour of the Day. Was really hoping more had been said while I slept....

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not. ;)

[wilwarin538]

Hey! Where is everyone? I'm so bored.

Haha :rolleyes:

x'ed oh, Nilp! but now you're gone....

[Nerwen]

So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

Which is why I said it might be worth doing a bit later. In fact, it might be worth it as soon as the Seer dreams a wolf (though it's up to him). At the moment we'd probably only get the name of a single innocent– who would then be killed.

EDIT:E'd since Wilwa at #46.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

Well, maths aside, because just by maths, the percentage of everybody dying is rather high, but then of course, it's not the way it works.

Anyway - "putting it off toooo long" - I guess that's something that won't happen, because in most games the Seer reveals on let's say Day 3 at most, either knowing already at least one Wolf (and then we can go on with the plan mentioned above) or in some more dramatic cases, the Seer becomes revealed by the fact that he/she dies or is about to be lynched or something as nice as that.

Anyway, good point about the Ranger - I actually didn't think of it, I was operating with the idea that the Ranger would have to cooperate with the others (and stuff like "I can't protect the Seer toNight, I did it already last Night" - but thinking of it, it's unlikely that it would happen on the first Night after the Seer's revelation and also, even if it did, would the Wolves dare to risk attacking the Seer even though there'd be a strong chance of him/her being protected? (of course the Ranger's not going to announce that to anybody) ...well, maybe with two kills per night, they still might...), but of course, if the Seer just announced "okay, wherever you are, Ranger, you protect me toNight and the Night Guard will do so the night after", it's okay. Of course, it's just on the hope that the Wolves don't by chance or by deduction target the Ranger. But it's true that it's a difference from revealing his/her identity, as they would just have to rely on good luck in that case.

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Nerwen - eeeexactly the same thoughts! Yea, good.

[wilwarin538]

Which is why I said it might be worth doing a bit later. In fact, it might be worth it as soon as the Seer dreams a wolf (though it's up to him). At the moment we'd probably only get the name of a single innocent– who would then be killed.


Especially because there are 4, and getting that first one gone is super important this game. So I think this could be something everyone can be more ok with, instead of getting the Seer out there without any really valuable info. It's really all up to the Seer for when their info becomes worth the risk.

And for fun: 20 players - our lynch choice - the seer = 18, so 4 in 18 which makes it so the seer has a 2 in 9 chance of dreaming a wolf (again, if my math is right). Which actually, is not so bad, almost a one in three.

x'ed with Legate, will read that post and respond now

[wilwarin538]

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.


Well, with counter reveals for Seers it's usually easier then it is for the other two gifteds. They'll have a few dreams by then, so if they reveal what they know to that point (even if it's just innocents), then it should be easier to deduce who's lying and who's not, really depending on what sort of info they provide. But yes, the back and forth between the two would work, and eventually the fake seer would slip up and there we have it.

My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. :rolleyes: I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale??? :smokin::p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. :rolleyes: I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale??? :smokin::p

Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...

[wilwarin538]

Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...


Rich??? Sounds lovely! Find me a rich husband and he can pay you the small fee. ;)

[wilwarin538]

Well, it's been delightful but I must leave you all. I'll be back for the last hour before DL.

[Kitanna]

I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

[Kitanna]

I went back and read Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation (and all posts that responded early on to it). Since this is the highlight right now it seems like a logical place to look for baddies. However, time is short for me so I'll make a few points quick and come home on my lunch break to finish any thoughts.


The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.

Mnemo is quick to declare this route this easiest, life in WW is never easy though. It doesn't feel wolfish, not so early, but that doesn't absolve Mnemo.
In answering my query on the idea Mnemo states that the seer has the choice to reveal. Another innocent move, but makes me wonder about Mnemo. However, nothing Mnemo has said screams wolf to me. I want to watch Mnemo over the next few days, but I have a feeling a wolf wolf wouldn't make a suggestion for a reveal so early, but would rather encourage the idea and thrive on any and all confusion.

I will return in a few hours to make a quick statement about Wilwa's role with Mnemo's suggestion and then a vote.

[Thinlómien]

I don't like the speculation about the seer revealing and us and the ranger protecting him/her nonstop. As several people have said, the plan is not faultless. Secondly, if we did, it would feel unfair for the wolves to me. Sort of like cheating. (Yes, and it's me Lommy-the-ever-ordo-and-always-on-the village's-side who's saying this.) From my point of view, it would be simpler, safer and fairer not to do that (from the beginning that is - once the seer comes out it would be stupid not to do it).

Anyhow, I don't know if I should be worried because this talk has been going on for so long. Everybody seems to agree we won't do it now, so why keep talking about it? I admit I haven't done anything else yet either, but the village's single-mindedness is a bit troubling. And I would also warn of making the hasty and probably biased conclusion that Mnemo who made the original suggestion (which is risky and dominating the discussion and all that jazz) is a wolf. I think what she said would've been an ideal piece of cobblery, but more ordoish than wolvish.

I should be going more or less now, and I'm afraid I won't have much of a chance to contribute today. I still have work, agreed to see someone nice and would like to go to sleep early. But I'll be back at least for a while. I'll leave the responsibility of moving on to other discussions to you others, and leave with a special note - I hate random votes (surprise ;)) and although she often uses them, Kitanna started looking mighty suspicious in my eyes as soon as she promised to make one. What a perfect way for a wolf to slip from the spot. I wonder if you're planning to give the guard vote at random too? Would make just about as much sense... :rolleyes: (sorry Kit, nothing personal but I never ever got the point of random voting, as you probably have noticed in all our games together...)


edit: xed with Kittles

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

-------------------
|........................|
|......WOLF!!!......|
|........................|
-------------------

EDIT: clumsy fingers

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

^ Dunno if painting that red would be legal and all (see glossary: HIGHLIGHTING) so I won't, but it's a pretty flag, ain't it?

Lynch me pl0x.

(All right, seriously, I'll be gone now, just stole comp time while the parents are out watching soaps.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

--------------------
| |
| WOLF!!! |
---------------------

*Jumps and grabs the nearest pitchfork.* Where? Where!!!
*Realises that it's just the village fool and calms down again.*
Yes, yes, wolves, son, wolves. There are lots of them.

...Anyway, as for other things. I only have to note that I am actually scared how exactly Lommy's thoughts reflect mine. From the beginning points, also those about "unfairness" (I was more like wondering if the Mod should not have limited this Night Guarding stuff a bit more limited rule-wise, though after thinking about it a bit - what I've been doing through writing all these posts - maybe it's not TOO strong, but still maybe a bit of a disbalance, but who knows), through the idea that if anything, Mnemo could be a possible Cobbler, up to the somewhat discomforted way of Kit's post (you are not going to be around, Kit? I don't think you didn't say anything about it on the admin thread? That's why it surprised me.)

When we are already at it, I also feel quite good about Nerwen this far, and I am not entirely sure about wilwa, maybe mainly because of the continuous pursuit of the revealing idea, though it's not anything too definite (mainly as she put that down in the end herself, but that could have been as well mere resignation). Anyway, I'm looking forward to see also others posting... hopefully not only in the last part of the Day or anything.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp

[Eönwë]

Mnemo could be a possible Cobbler

There are no cobblers.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, c'mon, Legate, let's play to win, and debate fairness later, after we have four wolf heads. :smokin:

[Pitchwife]

*comes into the market square and ambles around, listening to the discussion and trying to catch up with what has gone before*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

There are no cobblers.

Hey! Good to know, but you were originally planning some, were you, or did I just make it up? *checks the rules* Because I was under the impression that there was supposed to be one according to the rules...

[Eönwë]

Hey! Good to know, but you were originally planning some, were you, or did I just make it up? *checks the rules* Because I was under the impression that there was supposed to be one according to the rules...

I'm tempted to just repeat "There are no cobblers", but maybe that would be taking it too far...

They were never actually mentioned under roles, but I had put it under possible seer dreams by mistake at first, a mistake that I got rid of as soon as I realised.


And from now on, go to the Admin Thread for such questions.

[Boromir88]

No, not at all. I'd expect nothing less. In fact, it might make me a bit uneasy if you didn't. ;)
I may return the favor, though. Or, I may vote to guard you, who knows?.
The Day is still young.
Oh pig loins! All the suspicion you acquire every single time, has made you much more cool and calm. I should have expected it.


Anyhow, I don't know if I should be worried because this talk has been going on for so long. Everybody seems to agree we won't do it now, so why keep talking about it?

I wouldn't say that. Mnemo's has gotten several people talking about a subject, there's information there, now let's look through it. ;) There are still too many quiet villagers, but hey there's been a lot of commenting on Mnemo's plan.

Since she was the originator, I don't see how proposing a controversial idea, while getting lots of comments on it makes someone suspicious. We've been given about as good as info as we can expect to get on Day 1, courtesy of Mnemo. Now look through it and interpret it, because it's not posts and posts about pigs, fools, and feminine wiles.

For the time being, I see Mnemo as kind of the aunt you want to keep at arm's length. She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now.

By the way, I wouldn't mind trying her plan once the wolves are down to 1 kill. Two kills complicates everything, and could really make a mess of things, but if one wolf be gone, well it may just be worth it. Maybe it's just me, but the fact is sometimes as a wolf you have to do some real crazy stuff to win, it's no cake walk that's for sure. I think at times we have to do the same, and try out something that seems a little "out there." It could fail stupendously, but it could give us a brilliant and worthy win.

[satansaloser2005]

-------------------
|........................|
|......WOLF!!!......|
|........................|
-------------------

EDIT: clumsy fingers

Where?! Where's the dirty scoundrels?! *shoves glasses up farther on nose and brandishes a ruler* Let me at them!!!!

^ Dunno if painting that red would be legal and all (see glossary: HIGHLIGHTING) so I won't, but it's a pretty flag, ain't it?

Lynch me pl0x.

Only if they lynch me too. I thought you were dead once and it nearly killed me. I could not bear it if you died again, etc. *waits for Boro to step in*


In other news, I'm really tired. Got back from my aunt's and now it's laundry and then nap time, so I'll likely be around later in the Evening.

[satansaloser2005]

Incidentally, I don't think Mnemo's suggestion is necessarily evil, I just think it's A: too good to be true and B: a bit too cheap for my liking. If at some point the seer does have to reveal for whatever reason it's a good plan but I like to keep the gifteds hidden as long as possible.


Mum's the word. Or would be, if mine was here at the moment. Oh well.

[Pitchwife]

Good afternoon everybody! Seems I haven't missed that much...
As for Mnemo's suggestion, it had to come up, and why not rather sooner than later? It makes as good a starting point as any. The idea must have occurred to anybody who has given the words of our Mayor some thought (it surely did to me this morning while I was alone, working on the decorated lintel Nogrod commissioned for his mansion). The wolves probably saw it coming as well, but I don't think they'd bring it up themselves; anyway, I find it hard to suspect, much less convict anybody on no more evidence than their position in this debate - there may well be one or more wolves arguing for either side, in order to confuse us.
The Seer, of course, will do as the Seer sees fit, but I think it would be wise for them to reveal if they are either

able to name a wolf (catching the first wolf early is crucial, as it will halve the Night-kills); or
in danger of being lynched by mischance. (A cousin of mine told me this happened in his village not so long ago, when their inexperienced visionary got himself lynched after only one dream; predictably, the wolves triumphed. We want to avoid that!)

Some more thoughts to follow soon, but I've got to wet my throat first. That Chetwood Stout of Inzil's sounds promising...

[Mnemosyne]

Legate:

Why would the Ranger need to reveal?

EDIT: Heh. This is exactly what happens when you don't realize there's a second page.

[Nogrod]

When did Nogrod sign up for this game?At the last possible moment actually. I hadn't had time to check the 'Downs until it was basically too late but as Eönwë was in need of one more player I got in... :)

So...

I'm quite fascinated with this discussion about making a drastic move on Day1 - both in the sense that we should actually explore it, and in a sense Boro talked of it being much more better stuff to read on Day1 than the nonsensical banter.

As I see it, we have a possibility of generating an unlimited protection to our seer - as long as our ranger is alive.

So the first question should be, how long do we think our ranger can stay hidden and alive, and does is match the risk the seer takes by revealing? (Which of course is up to the seer as many have commented already)

But the second question - no lesser than the first - would be, are we willing to take the risk that the wolves will probably counter-reveal (or reveal first leaving our seer to do the countering)?

Now if we had two competing claims we'd have a 50-50 chance of getting it right and then protect the seer until the ranger is blown off. If we missed it by lynching the seer first we'd get a wolf the next Day for sure. With no cobbler around that should be self-evident.

So do we wish to risk exchanging the seer to one wolf for getting this protection-rotation going until the ranger is killed? In a sense that might be worth trying as seer's seldom catch multiple wolves (unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter :D).

But there could be another way to do it as well. If / when we had two competing claims for the seer we could protect them both during the Nights; ranger protecting the one and the village the other - and changing turns every Night. Then on Day3 or 4, depending on the general situation, we might require them to produce lists of their dreams and with the experience with them for a few Days already we might even be able to make a more educated guess between them than just 50-50. Also we would then have a list of four at best from the real seer to help us after s/he's gone.

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.

[Mnemosyne]

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

[Inziladun]

Well, I see there's been a deal of discussion by many, though precious little to aid me in my decisions thus far.
What's that, Boro? Pig loins? Not just now. But thank you anyway.
Though folks are thinking some of what strikes them as suspicious, which is good, I haven't seen much, if any, consideration of to whom the Guards should be assigned tonight, which is almost as important.
I'm thinking Nerwen perhaps. Music hath charms...etc.

x/d with Nog and Mnemo

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so let me go through it. Whom do we have there:

A Little Green- for some reason, she made me wonder with her mid-day chat, as I thought her intention was to have just some chat, but then she asks Nilp "why did you vote yourself?" which looked like a serious question, although completely vain by nature (knowing Nilp). But nothing much more to go on with.
alonariel- the village blacksmith-not around and won't be according to the admin thread, okay, that puts her out of the stuff for toDay.
Boromir88- hmph, well, somehow, his flip-floppish ending makes me uneasy (sort of defending Mnemo and saying this "She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now", which is basically the typical "either way the wind goes, I may or may not suspect her"), but that's not enough to vote him, of course. But let's see what happens.
Brinniel- nothing particular to go on with.
Hakon- not appeared yet, if I am not mistaken
Inziladun-
Kitanna- sudden appearance and disappearance, nothing more.
McCaber- not been around yet?
Mnemosyne- enough's been discussed about the Seer-talk; personally, I don't think I will vote her toDay (for neither lynch nor protection), maybe further Days will clear it up better.
Nerwen- keeps to the point and makes sense. I am thinking about her as a possible Night-Guard vote today.
Nessa Telrunya- nothing particular to go with
Nienna- same as above
Nilpaurion Felagund- Nilp is just Nilp, obviously nothing to do with him on Day 1.
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois hasn't shown himself yet
Pitchwife- more or less lurking on the edge, but nothing for or against this far.
satansaloser2005- apart from a very few random comments, nothing special
Shastanis Althreduin- nothing
Thinlómien- generally positive impact. I may also think of voting her for protection toDay, also maybe it would be more interesting than Nerwen in order to check, because if she perchance were a Wolf (somehow it seems more likely than in Nerwen's case), protecting her might also hinder the Wolves, or reveal something, or whatnot.
wilwarin538- like I said above, I am a bit wondering about her persistent persuasion of the subject of Seer's revelation, but then again, like I said, she ended it herself with good measure. I might vote her, for one, but that's no strong case - of course - Day 1, she is probably the "best" I have now (and that doesn't mean a lot).

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo and I realised I was so thinking about Inzil that I haven't filled in the box. I will do it in my further post as I also read the crossposts, and may add something on their posters too.

[Mnemosyne]

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much:rolleyes:) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)


I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

You do have a point there, and I'll give it to you. If the wolves get the gifteds right off, though, they can have it. (Not that I'd want them to get the gifteds, but you get my point. If the wolves are that good they deserve the kill.) If the seer thinks they're in danger (or ranger, for that matter, although that's a slightly different matter) then by all means we'll institute your plan. I just think that putting the gifteds out in the open right off isn't the best plan, that's all.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

*shrugs* I might be happy to try it later. I just don't think right now's the time to do it. And have a good afternoon! :)


And with that I must dash myself. I'll be back after I've had a nap, lunch, and a shower, probably in that order. See you later in the Day! :D


EDIT: x'd with Dun Dun Dun, a chicken Legate, and....oh, look, I found Mnemo too! (Sorry, feeling really silly today)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, all in all, as for that Seer matter - I certainly think we should not do it now anymore. In my opinion, the best would be really to do it only when the Seer has at least some known Wolf, though Mr. Nog's suggestion is not that bad itself either (but my reasons for saying this and trying to be rather careful are because I can well imagine a Seer who can dream four consequent Nights only about innocents, of whom half are killed during that time - something like that happened to a great-grandfather of mine once upon a time). Well, the Seer will choose himself/herself anyway. And as for the protection of both eventual Seers, if two revealed themselves, may I point out that I mentioned the same possibility already a long time ago ;)

Otherwise: To finish my thoughts - Inziladun, I feel it hard to say anything definite, I guess I'll probably move him to the "no idea" cathegory for now. Nogrod, since he posted now, seems his typical reasonable and "gambling" (or how to call that... maybe "adventurous" would sound more proper) self. Neither are likely to get my vote for either of the funny activities our village has to offer.

Ooh, speaking of that, Mister Nogrod... didn't you, perchance, give a thought to finding yourself some nice company for your retirement? I mean, you have plenty of time on your hands, what about finding yourself a charming young girl to keep you company in your lonely days? Just for a small fee I could look around and find you a lovely young lady, what says you...

[Mnemosyne]

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much:rolleyes:) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

[Mnemosyne]

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.

[Pitchwife]

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:
And if that person is a wolf, then he or she will not be able to join his or her fellows, which will lead to less carnage in the Night.
I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

[Mnemosyne]

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?


Nice catch! :eek:

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

[Brinniel]

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time. :o

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

I have been actually thinking about the same at first, but it sounded too good and too advantageous to be true. Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

But it indeed seems - or at least you support me in thinking so - that if we have 4 WWs and Guard one of them, there will be only one kill per Night. Isn't it a bit strong? Well, maybe (though it could be argued that we have little chance to pick and guard a Wolf early on, and later on, again, we will probably have only three WWs, so not much of a difference). But indeed, in the beginning, it might be interesting to try to vote for some "ambiguous" players and thus see if we can either protect a person or with good enough luck nail a totally unsuspicious Wolf. Let's not overdo it, however, as by protecting a Wolf, we are sort of throwing away the tool to keep alive those players to whom we trust, which is the main point of this Guard thing. I think at least after we have just 3 Wolves it loses its sense to guard people who we think are Wolves. (Although, still we'd protect them from communicating with their packmates, but then - well, not that important in comparison to protecting somebody, I think, although it would be a nice experiment to create nice havoc among the Wolves :) Still, as we don't know who is the Wolf, and if we knew, we'd probably rather lynch him than protect him, I think it's a bit pointless.)

Enough of rant, anyway, conclusion from this: I am really wondering about voting to protect Lommy then, like I said already above with the same reasons. But I'll see - I'll probably be gone now for a while, but hope to post at least once to vote before the DL, and see what's up. Till then, probably...

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo

[Pitchwife]

Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

Yep, of course there will, and if you read my post again you'll see I was talking about those points in the game when we have either all 4 wolves or only 1 of them left, not what happens inbetween with three or two.
Apart from that, I pretty much agree with you.

[Boromir88]

(unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter :D).

Haha, sorry that won't be happening this time around. The lazy bums will have to do the work themselves, as I will have to do for myself. :p

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.
I'm getting to that soonish, but I will probably have to vote a few hours before the DL.

Boromir88- hmph, well, somehow, his flip-floppish ending makes me uneasy (sort of defending Mnemo and saying this "She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now", which is basically the typical "either way the wind goes, I may or may not suspect her"), but that's not enough to vote him, of course. But let's see what happens.~Legate
Not at all, merely pointing out I don't see why the plan would make Mnemo look suspicious, at first look. There are innocent intentions, and it's been well thought out. Plus the way she's defended it afterwards looks more innocent...it hasn't been a

"Hey lets get the seer to reveal and have us and the Ranger switch off proteting."

A loud "NO!" from the crowd.

Mnemo: "Oh, ok, guess I was wrong...so who's a wolf?"

She's thought it out and defended it quite well, and I don't agree with sally at all about it being cheap. Hey, we use the toys the mod-god gives us...If the wolves think it's cheap, they need to quit their whining and figure out how they want to beat it.

My only reservation is, as Kitanna said, it shouldn't absolve her. It's not like wolves can't come up with an apparently helpful, ingenius idea, only then to tell her packmates to mess it up.

Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?~Pitch
Hmm interesting, but I would take it more as a fortunate circumstance if it just so happens we guard a wolf. I'm going to make my decision based on either someone I would not want to see killed, or someone who I think would force the wolves hand.

Like, say we could hope to protect one of the no-trail kills, to try and force the wolves to actually kill someone who will leave a trail back to them. How it stands now though, I think I'll go with option one today, because there be still too many no-trailers for the wolves to pick off.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Pitch

[Nogrod]

Somehow I do find this a bit unsettling:
I don't like the speculation about the seer revealing and us and the ranger protecting him/her nonstop. As several people have said, the plan is not faultless. Secondly, if we did, it would feel unfair for the wolves to me. Sort of like cheating. (Yes, and it's me Lommy-the-ever-ordo-and-always-on-the village's-side who's saying this.) From my point of view, it would be simpler, safer and fairer not to do that (from the beginning that is - once the seer comes out it would be stupid not to do it).Now even if Lommy has the reputation of the ultimate flip-flopper this kind of beats me.

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

Also I find this follow-up interesting:
Anyhow, I don't know if I should be worried because this talk has been going on for so long. Everybody seems to agree we won't do it now, so why keep talking about it?So let's not even discuss it? Why? For not realising it might be a good way to proceed for the village? Should we rather just rant and then vote randomly? It hardly fits your person Lommy... So why all this?

Hmm... Also pay heed to the "moral high-ground arguments" she uses - continued by Legate agreeing with Lommy (and his general reluctance on the matter): also those about "unfairness" (I was more like wondering if the Mod should not have limited this Night Guarding stuff a bit more limited rule-wise, though after thinking about it a bit - what I've been doing through writing all these posts - maybe it's not TOO strong, but still maybe a bit of a disbalance, but who knows)It just reminds me of my family's long history in the WW where my ancestors have been keen to bring forwards moral high ground -arguments when being baddies... :p

Yay Pitchwife! I had forgotten that! If we protect a wolf as a village there will be only one kill! So with two "revealed" seers we'd have 50-50 chance of suffering only one kill during the Night!


EDIT: X'd from Mnemo onwards...

[Nogrod]

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble.Exactly! It is risky!

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game... :rolleyes:

Makes me think Brinn quite good at this point.

[Brinniel]

Must really go now.

Legate so far seems the most sensible and reasonable and innocentish, so I'll pick him to guard:

++Legate

As for a lynch vote...much more difficult. No one stands out as suspicious to me just now so it'll have to be complete random toDay. A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

++McCaber

Hopefully my participation will be better toMorrow. At least deadline will be a bit better in my new time zone..

[satansaloser2005]

++wilwarin538

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?


EDIT: x'd since....Mnemo's last, I believe

[Mnemosyne]

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[Nienna]

I think that Pitchwife brought an interesting point about guarding someone who might be a quiet wolf. I think that it might actually be a good idea and something to think about for toDay. Since it is quite hard to make any suspicions or to know enough about someone to trust them toDay we could guard someone in the hopes of getting a quiet wolf. We can and should use guarding to actually guard someone during the Night after toDay but I think that using it to try and give us some more information for toMorrow might be a good idea. Just a thought.

Edit: x-ed since 89

[satansaloser2005]

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

Very true. That's why I said if we know there's no ranger save.


Steve, oh high and mighty mod, would you tell us if there was a ranger save or just let us wonder? *bows, backs away humbly*

[Nerwen]

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts?

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

[A Little Green]

Now even if Lommy has the reputation of the ultimate flip-flopper this kind of beats me.

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?
I find Nogrod's post about Lommy a bit unsettling, if truth be told. First he says that she is known as the ultimate flip-flopper and then accuses her because of flip-flopping? But what is more interesting is that what he sees as conflicting (flip-floppy) scenarios that come to have the same agenda looks to me like two different reasons for the same thing which is not flip-floppy at all.

Also, I don't like that "So...?" in the end. It looks evil. :p But really, it does! The sort of "I'm just dropping this idea and letting you others continue the thought, so I can't be blamed for bringing up the argument, he-he-hee." (Oh, too bad, now I'm actually imagining him behind his computer saying "he-he-hee" in a devilish voice and the image makes me giggle. :rolleyes: I'm evidently too tired for werewolf.)


EDIT: x-ed since Brinn's vote

[satansaloser2005]

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

Fair enough, and I'd go for that too. Whether we hit target #2 (if you will) or wolf #4 (again, if you will) we still save a person's life. But if we get a wolf they can't kill anyone (or rather can only kill one person) where if we protect Sally the Insufferable Innocent (or whoever we think is clean) the wolves will just pick someone else.


Really, I'm up for anything. This whole guarding thing is super cool, man.


EDIT: x'd with greenie *glomps her*

[Boromir88]

So, Mnemo unveils her plan straight away, and has to adjust the original idea, because the Mayor said we can't Night guard the same person two nights in a row. That is how I understand the Ranger was brought into the situation.

Now lets just see what everyone's said about it...

wilwa in post 8:
This plan sounds way to good and way to easy to be true. There must be a rule against us protecting the same person that many time in a row, though I suppose if we can't then we could just alternate with the Ranger,one Night we protect Seer next Night Ranger does, and hope the the Ranger can stay alive.
which crossed with Mnemo's 7, where she brought up the ranger too. Two people who thought the same thing, something that wilwa pointed out and it appears now Mnemo didn't appreciate the comparison. :p

Kitanna's post 9
This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?
The quick dismissiveness of the post looks suspicious. I read it as "Ya, ok, whatever...but the wolves will find a way around it so no point in continuing.

Plus, it really wouldn't be difficult to organize. Seer reveals, we protect seer Night 1 (the ranger will know because who we Night guard is known) then Ranger takes seer next night. The risk is since everyone is not on the same page with the plan, it would be unwise to do it right away, for only chaos can ensue from innocents not being on the same page, add on top wolves trying to mess things up.

Kitanna in 13 too caught my attention
This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.
Ahh honourably trying to look out for the innocents best interest are we? Balderdash. I would happily be killed if it means the seer is not, and so should any other innocent. The seer is our best weapon, and if we can be assured that the seer is kept alive to get multiple dreams, it's worth the sacrifice.

And Inzil's 22 is why I said he was looking like a wolf to me again
What's all this talk about our Seer coming out in the open now? I can see the argument for it, but it needs some serious thought before putting it into action. Like Kitanna said, there's probably a way for the wolves to get around it.
He rather forcibly rejects the idea with what I read as a rhetorical question, but then says there is some sense to it if we give it serious thought. Then goes back to agree with Kitanna's and be just as dismissive as Kit.

Did you really think we would be foolish enough to just go full steam ahead with an unconventional plan and not talk it out before asking the seer to reveal?

I have to stop here, I thought I'd be able to cram everything in, in roughly 40 minutes, but can't. I'll finish with the rest of the reactions to Mnemo's plan, when I get back, and then vote.

Edit: crossed since sally's post 90

[Pitchwife]

A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

I have a premonition our apothecary will be foaming at the mouth when he hears this - and honestly, I don't like it either. Much too easy.

[A Little Green]

I have a premonition our apothecary will be foaming at the mouth when he hears this - and honestly, I don't like it either. Much too easy.True, it's an easy vote, but I rather prefer that to voting randomly (like Kit threatened to do) or voting for themselves just because that's what they always do (like Nilp). There are many ways of making an easy vote on Day 1, but voting for someone for not contributing is, I think, among the least questionable. Though that, too, is efficient (no attention, no suspicion, looks good etc) for a wolf, being keen on eliminating the ones that don't talk at all is something an innocent would be keen on - the quiet, after all, are something an ordinary villager can't figure out.

[Pitchwife]

You may call me Pitchie, or Pitch, and I'll call you Greenie, ok?
I know the question of voting non-talkers has been widely discussed in other villages before, and I've somewhat changed my mind about it myself. I just don't think it quite fair to condemn somebody in their absence, and those who haven't talked toDay may do so toMorrow, or if they don't, we can leave it to the Mayor to deal with them.

[satansaloser2005]

For now.

++Guard Mnemo


I'll think about my lynch vote for now, but I think Mnemo is innocent and I like having someone on my side who looks at things from a different point of view (e.g. the seer reveal thing).


I'm thinking of Wilwa for a possible vote but that was a "whoa, look!" type thing, so I might change my mind, especially if someone else catches my attention.


I'll do a vote count now, savvy? :)

[A Little Green]

A sidenote: I hate Day 1s in large villages like this one because there are just too many people to look at and it's all a confusion trying to remember who said what and to even pay attention to everyone. Maybe I'll make a list at some point, though I bet it'll be a waste of space given how little I have to say at the moment.

A Little Green- for some reason, she made me wonder with her mid-day chat, as I thought her intention was to have just some chat, but then she asks Nilp "why did you vote yourself?" which looked like a serious question, although completely vain by nature (knowing Nilp). But nothing much more to go on with.Ah well, the mid-day chats are something of a speciality of mine - as I'm someone who rather discusses with people than makes long and substantial posts by herself, and I'm often around near mid-day (my time) when there is seldom any discussion going on, I like grasping whoever there is and discuss matters with them. This time it happened to be Nilp, so I asked him about that suicidal vote. But, like I found out, it wasn't much use. But just to clarify, when I want to have a mid-day chat with someone I'm often after a rather more serious contribution than some random chit-chat (like the one I ended up having with Nilp. :rolleyes: But really, how can one have a serious discussion with that one?)


EDIT: x-ed with Pitchie and Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo



My head, it pounds. I really do need to get off for a while and do some housework if nothing else. Leave some (but not lots? meh) for me to read when I get back in an hour or so. :)

[Pitchwife]

Legate, when you come back, would you mind explaining the reasoning behind your Guarding suggestions (Nerwen and Lommy)? I agree that Nerwen's been rather reasonable in her few posts, Lommy slightly less so from my perspective; I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*foams at the mouth*

Now that that's out of the way...

I think Legate and Lommy look odd and I think Mnemo's lack of explanation of her wilwa vote seems fishy.

Regarding her plan, though, I think it's a good one, and if we do decide to execute it today (which, although probably not going to occur, I am not against), we'd have a protected Seer from the beginning, which is no small occurrence... especially with the recent wolfish (and innocent) track record of killing the Seer day/night 1 (I think it's been three games in a row now, right?)

Anyway, vote soonish, I have a lot going on today (hi Brinn.)

[Nerwen]

Well, I have to vote now– and alas! I have no time to sing you a farewell song!

Guard:

++Legate

Likely to be a target if innocent; at the same time, he's making me slightly uneasy for some reason I can't put my finger on. So, I think he's a good choice however you look at it.

Lynch:

++Kitanna

Reason: apparent jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan. All her points are fine, understand, but again there is something that doesn't sit quite right with me.

This is just the usual weak Day One reason for voting: I don't have a proper case against Kit, or anyone.

I mean, I could have voted Wilwa for the same thing, but I'm not ready to jump on Mnemo's vote, when she never gave a reason.
EDIT: X'd since Sally.

[Pitchwife]

Time to start thinking about my own vote. Up to now, those whose contributions I like best are (in alphabetical order, not in order of preference) Boro, Mnemo and Nog; all of them have produced well-reasoned arguments, and I think we should definitely keep them around, so I'll probably vote to Guard one of them. I'd like to include Legate, but I'm with Nerwen here - something about him doesn't feel quite sound; I'll need to hear from and think about him some more. I'm starting to like Nerwen herself quite well, too, though she hasn't yet impressed me quite as much as those mentioned above - which may just be because her style is less openly controversial.

Picking a lynch candidate will be much more difficult. At the moment, Kitanna does look most fishy, for reasons given by Boro (#97) and, again, Nerwen (#106).
Others:
Brinn - don't like her vote, but otherwise she looks ok;
Lommy - good point by Nogrod in #87 (about her switching arguments and the moral high ground);
Sally - what Nog said about Lommy also applies to her #77; otherwise she's been very active and doesn't look really bad; I like the reason she gave for her Guard vote.
wilwa - not sure; I'd like to hear Mnemo explain where her vote for wilwa comes from; her interaction with Mnemo could be a wolf grabbing a controversial topic as a chance to stir discord, could be innocent.
Haven't really formed an opinion about Greenie, Inzil, Nienna, Shasta (of those who've talked at all).

[Nogrod]

I might join this "guard Legate" bandwagon just to remove one kill from the coming Night... or then saving a misguided innocent who'd try a bit better toMorrow (or later toDay).

I mean really, I was not sure I belived what I saw when I was looking at his first postings toDay. An intelligent guy like him talking against the revealment-plan from totally weird angles that had nothing to do with the reality we're facing. To be honest it looked like "let's torpedo this plan with whatever I can come up with" - and failing...

Not surprisingly I found the same agenda from Lommy's posting while Legate then went on saying he trusted her the most as the protegee for toNight... It just fits too well... to be true. :confused:

Anyway and all in all, that is not probably enough for me to vote either of them as losing one of them as an innocent on Day1 would be bad and that kind of teamwork would be too open even for them. But if I die soon I can at least say "I told you so" later. :)

I'll be back in a short while with some more general thoughts about our situation as how I see it.

EDIT: X'd with "Pitchie" ;)

[Kitanna]

I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So we should reward him?

Anyway, I have to vote now. Thought about voting Mnemo, but that seemed too much like penalizing her for an original thought, so I'm going to

++Lommy

and

++Legate.

[McCaber]

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

[Boromir88]

Continuing then...as a matter of aside, I really hate financial advising appointments. I mean really is it necessary to take hours to only learn you have no money? :rolleyes:

Nienna in 28
I have no real thoughts on the day except that Mnemo's suggestion worries me. Gifteds revealing this early is never a good idea. Maybe in a few days or when we are getting desperate but not on Day One.
This looks innocent, disagrees and notes the risk of it. Plus her other post today (#92) looks good too, I just wish Nienna would step out more. You've got a smart mind, have some confidence and trust it. ;)

So we reach Legate in #33, I think this was before the post where Nogrod points to taking a moral high-ground. Others have already brought up that the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal, but I want to look at this (bold my emphasis)...
I would not really be so hasty," he interfered, knocking the trunk of a nearby tree, "with all this talk about revelations. It is a good idea by itself, but it all depends just on good luck. Even if all worked well, if the Seer catches no Wolf in some three consequent days (see below), he or she may as well die without being of much of a real use.
What? The seer is no real use unless xe catches wolves? When did the idea that the seer needs to do our work for us happen? Ok, maybe that's rhetorical because it is always nice when the seer says "here's your wolves people." But how often does that really happen?

Most of the wolf-lynchings that happen are done by our own work and sweat, and a sprinkle of good fortune. Any information a seer gives is valuable, whether the seer knows wolves or not. Known innocents may become a night target, but it also limits the unknown number, thus increasing our chances to lynch a wolf during the day. Sorry, saying the seer would be no use unless the seer has a wolf is just wrong.

Greenie in 36:
I agree with Nienna and Nerwen and Legate and who not that it would be more of a risk than a gain to reveal the Seer this early, even with the Night Guard thing. (Read Legate's post for my train of thoughts, for he put it far clearer than I could have. ) Actually I'm feeling a bit worried about Mnemo at the moment - or rather, wondering whether I should be. It just popped into my mind that a wolf might like to try and get the Seer out in the open as soon as possible.
Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?

And that's about all I feel like commenting on, or what hasn't been said/who hasn't been pointed out. For, I concur with Nogrod about Lommy objecting because it would be unfair to the wolves. Although, sally hints at the same thing, and I really don't find her suspicious. I just wish ye both would get out of your heads that we have to play nicely with the wolves. :rolleyes: Of course there are always certain things off limit, as meta-gaming reasons, but look these are the weapons we've been given to work with...let's try to use them. Don't do the wolves work for them, let them figure out how they want to beat whatever plans we come up with.

Edit: crossed with Kit and on.

[Pitchwife]

Kit, just when I've reluctantly decided you're my prime suspect, you have to say something I can see sense in (even if I don't agree)!*sigh*
You forgot McCaber, by the way. (Cancel that - he just showed up.)

Nog, while I agree that Legate seems to have missed some points in his early posts, which of his angles do you find blatantly weird and out of touch with reality? Asking because it might help me to clarify my own impression of him.

EDIT: x-ed with Boro; applause, applause!
And sorry for forgetting Nilp in my earlier list, but he seems to be just in character, both in- and meta-gamewise, so nothing to go on.

[Nienna]

I have absolutely no idea who to vote for for either the guard or the lynch.

We are down to 2 hours before deadline I believe.

I'm going to go back through and see if I can dig up anything. No one is really setting off my radar or screaming wolf at me. Mnemo's plan was a little out there but it would be a really risky wolf move and I don't know if she is a risky wolf or not.

Edit: x-ed since Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)



I don't agree with Kit's reasoning for guarding Hakon. If she's innocent, it's not the best strategy (in my opinion it's better to protect people who aren't simply MIA, though I'm sure Hakon has a reason) although she does have a point about tendencies in wolf kills. (I actually guarded Mnemo because I know how unpredictable wolves can be if they like, so I don't put anything past anyone.) If she (Kit, that is) is guilty, however, there's a couple explanations.

It could be a throwaway on a packmate, thinking no one will follow her and so Hakon's activity won't get blocked. Dangerous, but you never know.
It could be a throwaway on an innocent, thinking no one will follow her and someone will believe the above. Makes a bit of sense to me, actually.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from a packmate (Legate?) so her furry friend(s) can kill at full capacity. Makes a lot of sense, but may be too obvious.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from someone she would like to kill toNight, a hope of getting people to vote Hakon so they don't try to protect X/Y. Also makes sense but wolves are flexible if they have to be so I don't like this one quite as much.
(By the same token maybe she thinks people will try to protect someone who's not been guard voted yet but who she thinks would be a usual choice. This theory could work for either of the last two.)

The thing is the I don't think a wolf Kit would guard a wolf Hakon and intend for him to actually be guarded; you can do your own maths on that one. So if Kit turns out to be a wolf down the line I'm going to say that either she's being tricksy or Hakon's innocent.

Need a drink (because you totally care, of course!) and to do some laundry. Back in a while.


EDIT: x'd since Shasta's vote

[Kitanna]

I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.

[satansaloser2005]

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Very good point, sir McCobbler. For instance, the wolves could send in only one kill on a particular Night to make us lynch someone they suspect as a gifted.

For example:
Formie, Saucie, Roa, and Mith are wolves. They think Agan is the seer, so they go along with a 'guard Agan' bandwagon and the following Night send in only one kill. Poof! Instant Agan lynch, more or less.

I'm not saying the theory isn't flawed, because it certainly is. I just think that in certain circumstances it would be worth the risk. (For instance, if it was rather later in the game and we still had all four wolves I'd be willing to perhaps base a wolf case off it, and ties between guarded suspects may help in that situation. Horribly explained this bit, but it makes sense in my head, I swear.:rolleyes:) I'm by no means suggesting we protect the people we find the most suspicious every Day, but it may prove informational at some point.

[Boromir88]

What's the reasoning behind Legate being someone we should guard again? Sorry, just not getting it.

[Nogrod]

Just to avoid any false attacks by the wolves I'll open with this statement I (and many others) have already made: the seer is solely responsible for her/his choices. What we others can and should do is to give her/him some food for thought to base / help her/his decisions on. There are so many voices around here... for good and for evil.


But how I see this is the following.

Premise 1.
Having a continuos protection for the seer from Day1 on would be absolutely great for us - and absolutely horrible for the wolves.

Premise 2.
The plan is not "certain". For...

2.1.
We can only protect the seer every Night as long as the ranger lives.

2.2.
The wolves can "counter-reveal" making it hard for us to choose between the two.

2.3.
As it is said that there are some secret roles, there is a possibility one of them might spoil the plan (although there is no cobbler which would have ruined the plan from the very beginning).

Premise 3.
Every villager hopes for the best of the village according to their understanding of the situation. The wolves need to consider whether to try openly to contest the best of the village trying to steer the opinions towards their favour or whether to go along with it to look good.

3.1.
It's not always self-evident what is for the best of the village - especially with some new rules / set-ups for the game.

3.2.
Intelligent wolves can make the difference and make the villagers to act against the good of the village despite their good intentions.

Postulate to 3.
We need to discuss it so that as many as possible would have as much information possible of the different views to form their own ideas about the best for the village.


Blah... it was fun as long as I had energy to continue... but it starts to feel like a bit too work-a-holic -way of doing this. :rolleyes:

So I'll just make my "deductions" from these premises in a fairly normal post in a short while...


EDIT: Oh my! Since when you all started to post? ;)

[A Little Green]

Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?Probably not, I agree, and I'm feeling ok about Mnemo at the moment, but at that moment she hadn't defended her idea that much.

I'll vote soon and be off to bed. I don't have much on anyone except Nog, to be honest, dunno why since he hasn't been the most vocal toDay or anything, he just keeps saying stuff that rubs me the wrong way. Like this: An intelligent guy like him talking against the revealment-plan from totally weird angles that had nothing to do with the reality we're facing. To be honest it looked like "let's torpedo this plan with whatever I can come up with" - and failing...I don't like the way he mixes intelligence and opinion - like, if someone has an opinion that differs from his own it means the person is not behaving according to his/her level of intelligence and is therefore playing more stupid than s/he actually is ergo is suspicious. A lack of tolerance for differing opinions isn't something an ordo can afford, and that is why Nog's argument makes me think he might be one of our baddies.

Am I sure of his being a wolf? No I'm not. BUT I'm more suspicious of him than I believe I've ever been of anyone on Day1. So, unless miracles happen, I'll lynch-vote Nogrod toDay. I haven't given much thought to my guard-vote as yet.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally, Boro and Noggers

[Nienna]

I'm open to guarding Mnemo because then we can see if her early plan for the gifteds to come out is furry or not. She might get my vote seeing as there is not really a person who I believe needs protecting toNight.

You've got a smart mind, have some confidence and trust it.

Thanks dear! :Merisu:

[satansaloser2005]

What's the reasoning behind Legate being someone we should guard again? Sorry, just not getting it.

*shrug* Me neither, really.

excessive babbling

EDIT: Oh my! Since when you all started to post?

Nog, I love you and your brainy brain. Heh. That is all. :)


EDIT: x'd since Nog

[satansaloser2005]

Also, keep in mind with this guarding thing, even if we guard Outstanding Citizen X, the wolves will still get two kills, just not the two they might have preferred. So don't necessarily think only about who you think would be killed, but also who you would like to keep around, whether you think they'd be attacked or not. (Aka guard me!!!!! I've not survived a game in ages! Besides the last one, and that was just rubbish on my part anyway.:p) Also, keep in mind what I said earlier about suspects. We don't have to go that way and I won't press for it, but you're not just keeping someone from dying, you're keeping them from possibly killing too.

[A Little Green]

So I'll just make my "deductions" from these premises in a fairly normal post in a short while...Is that a promise?

[Boromir88]

I'm open to guarding Mnemo because then we can see if her early plan for the gifteds to come out is furry or not. She might get my vote seeing as there is not really a person who I believe needs protecting toNight.
Funnily enough I may put in my lynch vote before my guard vote. It's almost like with a guard-vote my honor is at stake.

[Nogrod]

I think I may be able to answer to you both Pitch and Greenie... Just a moment. Your points do converge even if they come from quite different angles.

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)


Now we've got one on this page too. (Okay, so I'm trying to be helpful and cluttering up the thread. Shoot me. :p)


EDIT: x'd with Noggins

[satansaloser2005]

I will mention that there was a save.

So....hmmmm, I shall think further about my 'plan'. This definitely makes it more plausible, though.

[Boromir88]

++Kitanna

Thought her reactions to Mnemo earlier in the day were suspicious, as well as her lynch-vote for Brinn. How is it that Brinn always seems to get herself in trouble...even when she actively tries to avoid it? Must be frustrating.

And I will guard

++Nienna

tonight.

[satansaloser2005]

Must attend to some things. If I magically disappear and don't seem to be coming back someone poke me or something. ;)


Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna


I agree with Boro that Kit seems a bit off. And Brinn always gets herself in trouble because she is trouble. :p

[A Little Green]

I think I may be able to answer to you both Pitch and Greenie... Just a moment.Please be quick, I soooooo want to see your answer but I'll be going to sleep in a very short while (like, fifteen minutes or something).

[Nogrod]

Okay. Why am I bothered with Legate?

Well first he went forcibly against "the plan" basing it on a ridiculous idea that the ranger would have to reveal her/himself for us to execute it and putting her/himself on danger as well - thus making it look like a very dangerous plan for the innocents. He's intelligent enough to understand there is no reason for the ranger to reveal her/himself. That's not a difference of opinion.

Secondly he continued that same thing in his next post still. But soon he turned his wheels saying it would be "unfair" towards the wolves to use the plan...

I just don't trust him right now. It looks like he was trying to shoot the idea down in the earlier hours on the basis of it being too dangerous for the innocents but then went on opposing the idea on totally the opposite point of view eg. saying it would be too easy a win for the innocents...

And anyway that plan would be neither. It has its' risks and its' advantages. And no one can know beforehand what would happen if we sticked to it.

And what comes to Boro asking about this "protect Legate" bandwagon, I must say I'm as much at loss with it as you are, but could jump on it to save one of us the next Night with one wolf not able to kill... :rolleyes:

I mean that indirect knowledge toMorrow might be valuable indeed as I'm not sure I'd be ready to call for lynching Legate for these grounds even if I do suspect him at the moment.

Or it might even be direct knowledge!

If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...

[satansaloser2005]

If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...

See? I am in fact useful sometimes! :)


That's the part I forgot to mention actually, though I'm sure you all realized it already. If we do at some point guard a suspect (and there are four wolves) if there are still two kills we know that person is innocent. So really it's like we've got an extra seer dream (sort of) every Night until we kill a wolf. Shiny, yes?

[Pitchwife]

Sally, I think we can safely rule out Kit speculating on actually getting a majority for her Guard Hakon vote when there are several much more promising candidates around. Looks a little bit like a throwaway vote on her part.

Just a little addition to Nogrod's Wittgenstein post (have you been studying with Mac?;)):
Actually, all objections that have been and can be raised against Mnemo's plan apply equally to any other game. The Seer, once revealed, is always in danger, as is the Ranger (wow - that rhymed!). A fake reveal (or counter-reveal) by the wolves is always possible. The only, and crucial, difference with this game is that we have a chance to minimize (or at least reduce) the danger to our gifteds in a way that many other villages could only dream of.
But as I and many others have already said ad nauseam, the Seer will (and should) do as the Seer sees fit.

Nog's explanation about Legate satisfies me for now, but I'd still like to hear Legate himself.

EDIT: x-ed with Sally. Shiny indeed!

[Inziladun]

Well, I have to vote now– and alas! I have no time to sing you a farewell song!

No? Blast. I was quite looking forward to it. Give us an extra one toMorrow. Just not one about wolves.
Can't say as I have anything solid at this point as regarding suspicions. However, I'll go ahead with this:

++ Guard Boro

I thought of Legate, but I'd like Boro to stick around another Day, and not get up to mischief if I'm wrong about him.

As for the lynch vote...

Think I'll have to go with Kitanna. I don't care for the reasoning of her vote on Brinn.

++ Kitanna

[Nogrod]

That was an interesting thought indeed!

So as long as we have four wolves and two possible Night-kills and we manage to protect an innocent ending up with two kills performed during the Night, we know the one we protected as a village is innocent. If the seer doesn't come out that makes it easier for the ranger to spot the right people to protect the next Night (and us not to lynch on the next Day) - and in a sense the mechanics work like us as a community working as seers together.

So with no further babbling...

++ guard Legate

EDIT: X'd from Sally on... and agreeing with her as is obvious.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally, I think we can safely rule out Kit speculating on actually getting a majority for her Guard Hakon vote when there are several much more promising candidates around. Looks a little bit like a throwaway vote on her part.

That's pretty much what I thought too. I just wanted all the scenarios out there.


Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)

[A Little Green]

So with no further babbling...

++ guard LegateHaha, so the one so baffled by the guard Legate -bandwagon jumps in! :D (Sorry, I know you had a reason and all, just amuses me still.)

So, I'll be off to bed now and leave the computer to Lommy, I'll answer to you toMorrow friend Noggins if we both are still alive.

++ Nogrod

++ Guard Nienna

That latter because she is sensible and sharp but hasn't talked much - therefore, she'd make a classic Night 1 kill. I don't want to see her go yet as I have a good vibe about her. Besides, she has already been voted so it's not throwing away my guard vote completely.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I finally managed to kick Legate out of the house and Greenie away from the computer :p, so I'm here and I'll be reading now. Don't expect much of me, I'm probably going to manage to post once and vote before the DL! More activity toMorrow then...

[satansaloser2005]

Patricide (:eek::rolleyes::p)brings the count to....


Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Cabbie, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp

[McCaber]

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

++ wilwa

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

[Nogrod]

I'm not happy with this Kit bandwagon... It looks like an easy way out with nothing actual to support it. I hope to have time to look back on it to say something about it on top of pure feeling...

Hehe Greenie... you're either too trigger-happy or evil... But as I saw no point in your vote but the annoyance of someone whose mates have been revealed (and seasoning it with that "friend Noggins" which I find the most suspicious) I will consider the latter the more probable... :confused:

A list of my thoughts on people to follow soon.

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not happy with this Kit bandwagon... It looks like an easy way out with nothing actual to support it. I hope to have time to look back on it to say something about it on top of pure feeling...

Hehe Greenie... you're either too trigger-happy or evil... But as I saw no point in your vote but the annoyance of someone whose mates have been revealed (and seasoning it with that "friend Noggins" which I find the most suspicious) I will consider the latter the more probable... :confused:

A list of my thoughts on people to follow soon.

Same here, to an extent. I think she may be guilty but it seems....almost too easy, or rather too....oh, heck if I know.


My top suspects are still Wilwa and Kit. I hate Day Ones. *goes to cuddle with Formie until the Day is over* :p

[Pitchwife]

Dang it, here I go again, wavering and second-guessing myself about my Kit suspicion. Her last post sounds agreeable enough on the surface, but looking closer at it, it seems just a little bit too noncommittal. The reason she gives for her vote for Brinn is a plain case of plagiarism, if I may say so; and however much I disagree with Brinn's own vote myself, I don't find it sufficient to condemn her.
On the other hand, Kit behaves much like I might (and have done) myself as an innocent when I'm completely clueless. I've never played with her, but if I'm not mistaken, she's quite an experienced player - wouldn't she do better if she really was a wolf? Maybe those of you who know her better than I do can tell.

[Nogrod]

Here's the list of people I have even some vague feelings of...

Suspicious (funny but I seem to suspect the most the people I know the best from the RL):
Legate of Amon Lanc - I have already made the points on him but would not like to lynch him but rather check him by protecting him as a village toNight. As innocent he could be an asset even if for a short time.
Thinlómien - This I argued as well already albeit I'm waiting for her to post again as she promised and that might change things...
A Little Green - Too much rhetorics and decision based a bit too purposefully suiting the rhetorics given. I might consider voting her unless better ideas come forwards (a better idea being for example someone who really tries to hunker down and not saying anything to be safe)

Innocentish:
Mnemosyne - For starting the discussion on the "plan" and not giving in with it even if many people suspected her for it. My only fear is that I agree with her too much so far...
Pitchwife - Making really good points thus far and feeling like thinking about the matters from the innocent perspective...
Brinniel - The first to say it out aloud that the "plan" might be dangerous to us innocents. Looks very good indeed in comparison to some others opposing the plan...
Boromir88 - Speaks sense and the attitude looks more like that of an innocent than that of a wolf.
Shastanis Althreduin - Believe it or not, but with only one post I thought it was reasonable enough to gain trust at least for Day1...

Confused about:
satansaloser2005 - So involved it almost makes me think she's a wolf but not nervous as I remember her to be when being one... So she has learned the trade or is actually just having time?
wilwarin538 - playful and active in the beginning... hard to say, as it's hard to say why so many suspect her as easily...
Kitanna - I see where the general suspicions are coming from but am afraid it might be one of those Day1 unhappy bandwagons where insecure people vote for the one everyone else seems to suspect.
Nilpaurion Felagund - Well, what can you say about a suicidal maniac? But then again he made a few good points as well.

No actual feeling thus far (eg. my top candidates? :rolleyes:)
Inziladun
alonariel
Hakon
Nienna
Nerwen
Nessa Telrunya
McCaber


I really can't say right now. And that's what I fear with these people. I need to try and check back to form an opinion...

[Thinlómien]

Anyway, as for other things. I only have to note that I am actually scared how exactly Lommy's thoughts reflect mine.Great minds think alike. ;)

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?You can call me a conservative, but the idea doesn't generally seem like something I'd like to try and for both of the reasons, even though they are a bit contradictory. However, it makes sense if you think it the way that you wouldn't like to try a plan that feels a bit like cheating AND may not work at all. That's how I feel.

So let's not even discuss it? Why? For not realising it might be a good way to proceed for the village? Should we rather just rant and then vote randomly? It hardly fits your person Lommy... So why all this?I said I DO NOT want random votes. I hate them. But there could be discussion about something else. And I just simply don't like the idea, it's not carefully enough thought through and it feels unfair, like I already said. I would feel the same way with any role, but I don't get why it makes me wolvish that I criticise it: I think it's rather the contrary, I think those who are the most eager to develop the ideas may be some people desperate to hide their fur.

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm getting bad vibes from Kitanna, but I get that every single time I play with her. :rolleyes: That's why I'm not enthusiastic about the bandwagon against her.

If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.


xed with everybody

[satansaloser2005]

Nog: If it helps, last game I was an ordo and had top post count. I fluctuate, that's all. And I'm not a wolf so it hardly matters, does it? :)

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and Lommie? Steve said he would indicate a save in the narration, so we would in fact know the difference.

[Nienna]

Zil worries me the most right now. He may get my lynch vote. His vote for Kit seems like a jump on a bandwagon.

and

++Guard Mnemo

reasons stated in a previous post.

[Thinlómien]

*tries very hard not to start suspecting Nogrod*

But I can just so perfectly see where Greenie is coming from. (And a double-patricide would be a lot of fun anyway. :p)

The problem is just that I think Nogrod probably is an innocent, even though he provokes my automatic wolf alarm reactions because he is disagreeing with me (not seeing completely valid points! and suspecting people like Greenie whom I don't suspect and feeling rather knee-jerk in that) and accusing me baselessly.

And now reading what I just wrote makes me suspicious of him. Blast.

*hurries off to make a quick list to clear her head before the DL*


edit: xed with all - thanks for clarifying Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


EDIT: x'd with Lommie. No problem, dearest. :)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Huh, okay. Quick sum, hope not to x-post with too many, and then some votes. Ha, great, right upon DL. And that's something about going to sleep early...

I think that Pitchwife brought an interesting point about guarding someone who might be a quiet wolf. I think that it might actually be a good idea and something to think about for toDay. Since it is quite hard to make any suspicions or to know enough about someone to trust them toDay we could guard someone in the hopes of getting a quiet wolf. We can and should use guarding to actually guard someone during the Night after toDay but I think that using it to try and give us some more information for toMorrow might be a good idea. Just a thought.

Edit: x-ed since 89
I liked this post and noting that down that Nienna is speaking sensibly and I put her more into the "good feeling" part of my list.

Also, I don't like that "So...?" in the end. It looks evil. :p But really, it does! The sort of "I'm just dropping this idea and letting you others continue the thought, so I can't be blamed for bringing up the argument, he-he-hee." (Oh, too bad, now I'm actually imagining him behind his computer saying "he-he-hee" in a devilish voice and the image makes me giggle. I'm evidently too tired for werewolf.)
For some reason, I was thinking the same. Actually Mr. Nog's absolutely heedless pursuit of little me makes me a bit uncomfortable, now if he's the one to speak of not-very-well-thought-through behavior of others while he's doing such things himself. He's not acting like Thomas Aquineus, from whom he apparently copies his way of placing arguments, but a bit more like the Grand Inquisitor. Shouldn't you take a deep breath, Nog?

Ah well, the mid-day chats are something of a speciality of mine - as I'm someone who rather discusses with people than makes long and substantial posts by herself, and I'm often around near mid-day (my time) when there is seldom any discussion going on, I like grasping whoever there is and discuss matters with them. This time it happened to be Nilp, so I asked him about that suicidal vote. But, like I found out, it wasn't much use. But just to clarify, when I want to have a mid-day chat with someone I'm often after a rather more serious contribution than some random chit-chat (like the one I ended up having with Nilp. But really, how can one have a serious discussion with that one?)
Okay, that clears it up for me.

Legate, when you come back, would you mind explaining the reasoning behind your Guarding suggestions (Nerwen and Lommy)? I agree that Nerwen's been rather reasonable in her few posts, Lommy slightly less so from my perspective; I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)
Sure. My points were just that Nerwen looks innocent to me. All her posts were helpful, logical, she didn't say much, but all she said made sense and seemed to be genuine. With Lommy, I already said that I could basically agree with what she said and I also had a good feeling from that, similarly as with Nerwen. So when choosing whom to guard, I was thinking of these two. And I was considering that maybe Lommy would be better just because of the fact that I thought there's a larger chance that she can be a Wolf (an unsuspicious one) than Nerwen, thus, I had two reasons to guard her (if you put it like that). But of course I don't really suspect any of them - it's just that IF one of them was fooling me now, Lommy seemed more possible to me.

I might join this "guard Legate" bandwagon just to remove one kill from the coming Night... or then saving a misguided innocent who'd try a bit better toMorrow (or later toDay).
Now that was really rude.

I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.
Okay, now this is one thing I don't completely see - what reason do you actually have to guard Hakon? It's a totally throwaway thing, and I can't see any reason to do it except for trying to be fair to somebody who's not around. That's of course nice thing to do, to be fair and protect such a possible victim (with this I agree with you, that wolves often pick those people). But then, really people seldom act so "fairly" just for the fairness itself, so that's why I am asking if you have other reasons beyond that? (Maybe I should trust in nice motives, but for some reason I think it's not generally like that in WW, and not even from you, but maybe I am mistaken.)

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.
That's very, very good point - makes me think good of McC - but of course (and I see that's been mentioned also), there is this fact that if there ARE two kills, we get a known innocent. (Who, though, btw, cannot be Night Guarded the Night after, so he's as good as dead soon - or maybe not? Because the Ranger can protect him, which of course is likely, unless he has some better person to protect.)

I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.
Okay, but that actually WAS Brinn's point, to vote somebody who hasn't been around yet? Anyway, this is just plain wrong, I have a bad feeling about this, because it happens with Brinn all the time and she gets lynched for that. I am not accusing Kit because of that, but I am certainly not going to join that. (Why would I anyway. Btw I find Brinn quite good right now.)

Okay, I finally managed to kick Legate out of the house and Greenie away from the computer :p, so I'm here and I'll be reading now. Don't expect much of me, I'm probably going to manage to post once and vote before the DL! More activity toMorrow then...

Okay, that was a bit rude but whatever. Now let's see how much I have x-ed with and then quickly vote!

[Hakon]

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

++Legate

[wilwarin538]

I'm here!!! Waaaayyy later then I expected! Will skim through quickly and vote and such...

[Thinlómien]

Feel goodish
Mnemo
Greenie
Cabbie
Legate
Sally

No idea
Nilp
Nerwen
Brinn
Boro
Inziladun
Wilwa
Pitch
Alona
Hakon
Nessa

Feel badish
Nogrod
Shasta
Kit

Won't have time to elaborate, and besides given that I have had almost zero time for ww toDay it wouldn't even be much, so that's it. I can elaborate on one though - I have a bad feeling about Shasta, he's too eager. But most of my bad feeling may be due to him disagreeing with me rather completely (not the least about my innocence ;)).

I'm starting to see the point in random votes... :rolleyes: (Not really though, I just said that to make it clear I have no idea who to vote for. And the sooner I go to sleep, the better. Arg. Maybe I'll have a look at the votes that have been cast this far because to be honest I haven't paid any attention to the general situation...)


edit: mass-xed again

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Lommie, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


EDIT: x'd with Wilwa and Lommie

[Nienna]

Thanks Lommy love you too :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A Little Green - Too much rhetorics and decision based a bit too purposefully suiting the rhetorics given. I might consider voting her unless better ideas come forwards (a better idea being for example someone who really tries to hunker down and not saying anything to be safe)
Okay, actually of all your prime suspects (well, of course :) ) I find this somewhat reflecting mine. Somewhat. I am a tiny little bit uneasy from Greenie, but what made me say it aloud is actually this, as I have been thinking whether there cannot be some wolf-on-wolf suspicion here. You know, if both of you are wolves, you could do this, just putting your mate into a nice list. I am saying that because it sort of echoes what I thought in the first place at some Greenie's words about you: that it looks maybe a tiny bit like a wolf-on-wolf suspicion.


No actual feeling thus far (eg. my top candidates? :rolleyes:)
Are you sure you don't mean i.e.? ;)

[Thinlómien]

That's very, very good point - makes me think good of McC - but of course (and I see that's been mentioned also), there is this fact that if there ARE two kills, we get a known innocent. (Who, though, btw, cannot be Night Guarded the Night after, so he's as good as dead soon - or maybe not? Because the Ranger can protect him, which of course is likely, unless he has some better person to protect.)Hey, good point. So we should actually night guard someone we want to have as a known innocent? Although - risking the wrath of Pater Nogger :p - that seems a bit unfair to me too, but somehow not as bad as the seer tactic and given that the wolves profit from it too by getting a ready made kill list, it's maybe just fair. :rolleyes: :D And there probably is some hole in this tactic, or possibly, but no time to think of it now! That's for toMorrow.

edit: xed again

[Nogrod]

have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.Me, aggressive? Like you hadn't seen me being aggressive like years ago? :)

Sorry Lommy, a bad point. I said I suspected you because you made your best to discredit the 0plan and took both views to hammer your point in. You said it was risky, yes, but you also said it was unfair to the wolves...


If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...
Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.What are you thinking about in here? Not necessarily? Why not? If we protect as a village someone and there are two kills then that one must be innocent. What are you thinking?

Okay tell that t6oMorrow, now we need to make decisions for toDay...

[Thinlómien]

Oh sorry Nienna that just proves you're in my no idea category I guess... :rolleyes::D

edit: xed and would like to argue but not now

[Pitchwife]

5 minutes to DL, so let's get this over with.

++Kitanna
More faute de mieux than anything else.
++Guard Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Well that's interesting....


Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate
Pitchie-->Kit

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Alona, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (2)
Pitchie-->Boro (3)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Alona, Lommie, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


Lots of people left to vote. :eek:

[Thinlómien]

Of the ones who have got votes this far it's be Kit or Nog for me... but the problem is that I can see myself being tricked to suspect either of them as innocent very easily...

++guard Legate

for simply wanting to know his role and because everybody seems to agree anyway so why not do it.

Nog, the explanation for the "not necessarily" is in the same sentence - not sure how did you miss that.

edit: xed with people

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so:

I am quite comfortable with being guarded, at least now, if it proves my innocence, for example (or if the Wolves want to bluff and save one kill, that's as good as that, but I doubt them trying that). Anyway, so I vote in this way and let's see:

++Lommy

And as for... hmm... well what, wilwa or Kitanna? Okay, hmm, both are sort of bandwagons, so who knows what good may come out of them...

Ah okay. Nah, let's see if it's a competition.

++wilwa

[Nienna]

++Zil

[Nienna]

and p.s. Sally, Boro now has 4 guard votes.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, have to say I didn't read to indepth, cause I was scared of missing the DL, which is in 5 minutes, right? I hope I'm not rushing for nothing.

So I'm tempted to vote for Mnemo just cause A: she didn't give to much of a reason, and B: basically everything I said so far was about the idea she came up with. But I probably won't, cause I don't like adding other people into the mix.

So I really really hate doing this, cause I didn't have the chance to read her posts as much as I would have liked, but I have to vote to try to save myself:

++Kitanna

And since Legate is so awesome:

++ Guard Legate

[Nogrod]

Thanks for the "guard Legate" Lommy.

That's the way to find him out.

Okay, time's out...

++ Greenie

[Thinlómien]

++Kitanna

I don't see what's so suspicious about wilwa.

xed probably

[satansaloser2005]

++Kit

[Eönwë]

Deadline.

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate
Pitchie-->Kit (4)
Legate-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Dun
Nog-->Greenie
Lommie-->Kit (5)
Sally-->Kit (6)


Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (3)
Pitchie-->Boro (4)
Lommie-->Legate (5)
Legate-->Lommie
Wilwa-->Legate (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


EDIT: thanks for the correction, Nienna
EDIT #2: x'd with Steve, obviously

[Eönwë]

It had been quite a fierce day.

Eönwë had thought that it would be like the normal meetings, where people just spent the first half of the day talking amongst themselves. So it had come as a bit of a shock when Miss Syne blurted out:

"So let's just joint guard the seer!"

But others were less ready to join this.

"It's too good to be true!" shouted Wilwarin.

"And will somebody please think of the innocents!" Kitanna complained.

And as the discussion shifted to such important topics such as who had the most effective wiles, Inziladun came to the square trying to offer people a pint, but he was just ignored, and left to drink on his own.

Nilpaurion appeared out of nowhere, and hopped around in a jig while shouting "Kill me! Kill me!" before, making a sign with the word "WOLF" on it in big red letters.

Legate was no better, trying to take money from the innocent bystanders.

The whole day was spent debating this hot issue.

Many said it would be advantageous, and others said it would be unfair.

"What are you talking about!" protested Boromir. "It's not like the wolves are giving us a chance."

And so the talk switched to who could be wolves and who it would be better to guard.

After many attacks by everyone, and a patricidal attack by Greenie on Nogrod, who was launching fierce verbal assaults on anyone he suspected, it was decided the it would be Kitanna who would be executed by the villagers. Hakon stuck his head out of the shadows and shouted "Kill Legate!" and then just left again. After a few seconds everyone just went back to what they were doing before and forgot that it even happened.

As for who was going to be saved, the votes were equal between Boromir and Legate, when Lómien shouted "We all want to know what Legate is, so let's have him guarded!" and everyone agreed.

They took Kitanna to the gallows. "If she really is a wolf," started Eönwë, "then she'll turn into one upon her death."

And as had the noose put around her neck, she started sobbing. "But... but I'm the seer. How could you do this to me?" she whispered to the executioner. But would did not listen, and emotionlessly, he removed the platform from under her feet. And so, Kitanna was hanged, first of the village.

All the villagers watched with baited breath, but as the life extinguished from her eyes, all fell silent. Nothing had happened. They were hoping for something, anything, to show that she was a wolf, but when she was taken down it could be seen that she was just a normal human.

Her house in the wilderness was searched, and a sullen-faced villager came out holding something round-shaped in his hands, wrapped in a cloth. It was a crystal ball. "I'm sorry to tell you this," he said to the onlooking village, "but Kitanna was our Seer, the only one who could tell for certain who was a wolf and who wasn't. And now we've killed her."

The spirits of the village lowered, and as the villagers walked back, it started raining. Sullenly, they stood outside Legate's house, watching the two Night Guards taking their place outside, looking powerful and terrible in the twilight.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Mnemosyne- the village coquette
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer

[Eönwë]

It was the night, and the shadows flitted through the streets, darker than the rest of the darkness.

Some dark, indiscernible forms prowled among the streets, and dread reached those even in their houses as the shadows crept by.

The rain was heavy, and pounding on the windows, keeping one villager in particular awake. Mnemo "Ooh La La" Syne, as she was known, could not sleep. She lay there in her bed, but a darkness filled her heart. And with not so much as a rustle, an indiscernible number of tall dark figures assembled before her.

"Now, when I heard that there'd be wolves, I hadn't heard that they'd be so tall and dark," she said, looking at them, their forms and shadows moving and changing shape in the darkness.

One stepped forwards. "Spare your sweet talk, girl." he said, with a menacing expression upon his terrible face.

"My, my, you are a handsome wolf." said Miss Ooh La La Syne.

The wolf stood for a second, startled. Then he leaned forwards, his rank breath steaming in the midnight air. His red eyes glared at hers.

"What large eyes you have." observed Mnemo.

"All the better to see you with." said the wolf.

"What large paws you have." said the village coquette.

"All the better to reach for you with." replied the wolf, with an evil grin spreading across his face.

"What large teeth you have." said Miss Syne.

"All the better to-" the wolf stopped mid-sentence, and all the Mnemo could see was a flash of yellow before he sunk his teeth into her neck.

Mnemo Syne was "Ooh La La" no more.

---

It was morning, and Eönwë stood in his usual position. He addressed the people.

"It is good to see you all this morning- but wait, we seem to be missing someone. Where is Miss Mnemo Syne? Has anyone seen her?"

People looked around, but she was not among them. Her house was searched, but she was not there. There was only a trail of now dried blood leading to the village square, and ending right in the centre. The people standing there looked about at each other nervously.

That day the village was searched, but her body was never found.

Eönwë looked at all the expectant faces staring at him. "I am sorry to say that we must conclude that Mnemo Syne has been the first victim of the vicious attacks of the Werewolves.

"But something else is bothering me. What could be the reason for there only being one attack last night?"


Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent


Day 2 has begun. You may start posting now.

[satansaloser2005]

Told ya so. Just sayin'. (In regards to my poor dead duckling, that is.)

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.

[wilwarin538]

(like the Little Red references Eonwe, made me reminisce about my game, love that story!)

Hmm, well that's interesting. I'm surprised they chose Mnemo, I figured they'd pick someone a bit more under the reindeer, which is what usually happens.

So......I have to say I`m extremely dissapointed, we were given this amazing oppurtunity to get atleast 3 dreams known out of the Seer, and now we have nothing. :confused: I honestly wish the plan that Mnemo brought out had been more highly considered.

Anyway, I've been putting together a little summury of everyone from yesterDay, so I'll post that up soon.

[Hakon]

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

[wilwarin538]

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

I don't get this. Hakon, you need more reasons then just "gut feeling", please.



So my list, I have included the dead (underlined), and as I got later into the day I started skimming more and writting less, but I have basically everything important that was said. If I missed something, or misquoted, or put something under the wrong person, or if you feel I misinterpreted what you said, then my apologies, I'm just trying to get my thoughts together.

Kitanna: #9: commented on Mnemo’s idea, said the wolves could manipulate it, #13: afraid for the innocents that would become vulnerable, scared of losing the Ranger too soon to make it worth it, #56/57: finds Mnemo a bit suspicious, but says a wolf would be unlikely to come up with such a plan, but a wolf might support such a plan…guards Hakon, votes Brinn (after reading all that, I get why she had been seen as suspicious)…personal opinion is that she had dreamt of Mnemo, cause it seems that she would point out things about Mnemo that were suspicious, but then defend them right after, so I’m gonna read her posts through more thoroughly later, like possibly in the morning when I have far more time

Greenie: #36: aswell didn’t like Mnemo’s idea, was worried about Mnemo, next few posts were banter with Nilp,#95: doesn’t like Nog’s suspicion of Lommy, #99: ok with people voting for those who don’t participate, #120: Nog still “rubs her the wrong way”….votes Nogrod, guards Nienna

Alona: zip

Boro: #4: Nogrod’s here? and a pig, #18: bacon, and French, #26: says he kinda suspects Inzil (couldn’t tell if this was real suspicion or just early Day 1 banter), #67: isn’t overly worried about Mnemo, doesn’t think the plan is that bad, should be left when wolves have only 1 kill, #86: doesn’t find Mnemo as that suspicious, #97: makes a list of various reactions to Mnemo’s plan, #122, continues this. #118: doesn’t get why Legate’s been chosen to be protected…votes Kit, guards Nienna

Brinn: #31: surprised at so few posts, #83: also wants to hold the plan for later….votes McCaber, guards Legate

Hakon: votes Legate, guards Boro, no real reason (“gut feelings”), no big surprise

Inziladun: #22: didn’t really like Mnemo’s idea either, #25: Nilp’s self vote befuddled him for a moment, #74: thinks people should discuss who to guard, suggests Nerwen….guards Boro, votes Kit

Legate: #33: looonng post, some gaming banter, thinks Mnemo’s idea is OK in itself, mistakenly thinks the Ranger would have to reveal, leaves it up to Seer but thinks it should be left til she has good info, #50: said that my comment about not wanting to put it off too long is unlikely because the Seer usually reveals early, doesn’t want plan to go through today, afraid for possible counter reveals, #53: offers to find me a husband, #61: agrees with Lommy about the unfairness of it all, thinks Mnemo could be a cobbler (didn’t realise there was no such role), feels good about Nerwen, doesn’t about me because of my “continuous pursuit” of the idea, #75: big list, uneasy with: Boro, me, OK with: Mnemo, Nerwen, Lommy, #78: doesn’t want plan to be done now, wants to wait til Seer has wolf, wants to find Noggy a wife (perhaps him and I should just pair up, haha :p) #84: mentions about Pitch’s observation about protecting a wolf, how the protections could reveal innocents/wolves for us….guards Lommy, votes me

McCaber: #111: said “Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.”….votes me, which I want a better explanation for, because this: “for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety” isn’t good enough, since it was Mnemo’s idea and I simply agreed, so why me and not her??

Mnemo: #5: brings up controversial idea, #11: goes further into the idea, says how we could guard back/forth with Ranger, #14: says how the Seer would only reveal Wolves, aslong as the Ranger was still around, #17: didn’t like that I said we were of similar minds, #73: defends the plan, doesn’t like that Lommy said she didn’t want people discussing it, yet she kept discussing it, thinks the plan should be done as soon as possible, #79: thinks saying her plan is too easy is silly, wants to guard either Nog, Legate or Boro… votes me, guards Boro (I may look at her posts more closely late on, like the morning, if I have time and if it hasn't been done by someone else)

Nerwen:#30; sang a song, #34: thought Mnemo’s idea was too much of a risk right now, it should be held off for a few days, #49: says it should be held off til the Seer has a wolf….vote Kit, guard Legate

Nessa: zip

Nienna: #28: doesn’t like Mnemo’s idea either, says it should be held off for a few days, #92: also likes Pitch’s point about the guarding #94: also like’s Pitch’s suggestion, #121: says she may vote to guard Mnemo to get a better idea about the reasons behind her plan…guard Mnemo, votes Inzil

Nilp: #24: self vote (surprise surprise), #35: clarifies for Legate that Ranger would not have to reveal, next few posts are banter with Greenie, #59, makes his wolf sign, #63: disagrees with the unfairness thing said by Leg and Lom….votes himself

Nogrod: #72: thinks through the plan very logically and seems to be OK with the idea (thank you!), talks about what to do if there were competing claims, #87: calls Lommy a flip-flopper, doesn’t like the talk of unfairness, thinks Brinn looks good, #108: doesn’t like Legate’s negative opinion of “the plan”, feels weird about Lommy aswell, #119: made a nice little outline of the plan, I have to say that I appreciate how he always kept an open mind about it, #132: talks about why Legate bothers him, #142: doesn’t like Kit bandwaggon , #146: suspicious: Legate, Lommy, Greenie, innocent: Mnemo, Pitch, Brinn, Boro, Shasta, rest are unsure, ….guards Legate, which I initially found odd because he suspects him, but realised it was logical since he wants to test out how it effects the Night kills….guards Legate, votes Greenie

Pitch: #70: didn’t want to suspect someone just for coming up with a controversial idea, thought the Seer should only come forward if at risk of lynching or if they have a wolf,#81: mentions how if we guard a wolf there will only be 1 kill (which brings in lots of discussion later on), #100: doesn’t like voting for those who have not contributed on Day 1, #104: wants Legate to clarify why he finds Nerwen and Lommy to be logical guard choices, says he’s an ordo, #107: wants to guard Boro, Nog or Mnemo, feels a bit weird about Leggy, not sure about me, #113: wanted Nog to clarify his opinion of Legate, #134: says this, which I like a lot “The only, and crucial, difference with this game is that we have a chance to minimize (or at least reduce) the danger to our gifteds in a way that many other villages could only dream of.”, #145: confused about Lommy……votes Kit, guards Boro

Sally: #29: loves Nilp, #69: didn’t think Mnemo’s suggestion was evil, but thinks it’s cheap and too good to be true, wants gifteds to stay hidden, #77: wants to do things the “old-fashioned way”, doesn’t think it’s good to do the plan now, wants to put it off, #90: says something about seeing one of my posts and thought I was something specific (didn’t say which post, which I’d appreciate from her, cause I don’t know what’s she’s talking about), likes Pitch’s point about the guarding, ...guards Mnemo, votes me #115: looks into Kit’s guard for Hakon, doesn’t like it (I understand that), #144: me and Kit are her top suspects still (still hasn't given to much reasoning for the suspicion for me, just that one of my posts popped out at her)….votes Kit, guards Mnemo

Shasta: #105: thinks Leg and Lom look odd, doesn’t like Mnemo’s lack of vote explanation, likes the plan and would have been good with doing it Day 1…votes Lommy, guard Legate

Lommy: #58: really doesn’t like the idea, thinks it’s unfair to the wolves (which I think is ridiculous because it clearly followed the rules), doesn’t get why people keep talking about it, then keeps talking about it, doesn’t think Mnemo is wolfish, doesn’t like random votes and the fact that Kit said she would make one, #147: defends herself to Nog, reiterates her previous opinions, #151: really unsure about Nog now, #156: list, feels worse about Nog, Shasta and Kit, #160: calls Legate’s plan, of guarding someone who we want as a known innocent, “a bit unfair” and that there is probably a hole in the tactic, so Lommy officially doesn’t like plans :p…..guards Legate, votes Kit

So that's that. I will ponder all of this, and hopefully find some interesting posts when I finally put this up. I'll make a little list of my overall feelings for everyone a bit later tonight, when I (hopefully) have some present day info to go on.

Oh, and just cause the Seer and the Ranger were both mentioned oh so much yesterDay i just want to say: hunter, we love you! ;)

I shall be around randomly for the next few hours, then will be back for a loooonnng time in the morning, cause I have nothing else to do. Plus I will be here for the last few hours before DL. This time is just perfect for me.

EDIT: hmmm, no crossposting, what a shame...

[satansaloser2005]

Epic!Wilwa post is epic.

And Hakon, once again, isn't saying anything but "I feel this or that". Iiiinteresting.

In answer to your question(ish), Wilwa, it was just a hunch based on the tone of one of your posts. It tripped my radar but I suspected Kit based on more than I thought I had on you, so I didn't feel comfortable voting you. Shame, really, considering how it turned out. :(

The hunter feels loved now, I'm sure. And a nice list overall. Thanks for the SparkNotes! :)


Heading out soon and won't be back for a few hours, so basically toDay will be slow for me until Evening, more or less. Busy day tomorrow as well, alas. I'll look at Kit's posts before bed (hopefully) and see what I can find; I'm not sure about Wilwa's theory about Mnemo being her dream, but I'll look into it. Until later!

[wilwarin538]

Haha, thank you Sally! *bows* I like epicness!

Have to go now for a bit, but then I'll be back and will look over Kit and Mnemo's posts more closely, so you can expect that from me within the next hour.

[Nienna]

Dear Village,

Slight fail on the lynching of our Seer. You are, however, redeemed in that we quite possibly have found us a wolf.

Love,
Me

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf. Many people voted to guard him yesterday because he was being somewhat suspicious. We also need to keep the kills down to one now that we have lost our seer so lynching a wolf will be in our best interest.

Twice the voting to be analyzed now.

[Boromir88]

Unbelievable, the seer gone again in Day 1? This is a joke, isn't it? Hopefully one of the hidden roles was a seer. :rolleyes:

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf.~Nienna
I'd say it would be pretty stupid not to do it, but we shouldn't just vote and attend our other business. We have to make every day a productive day now.

I'm watching McCaber who pointed out the wolves may want to fake us out and only chose one kill, so we lynch the person we guarded the day before. Interesting theory, but most peculiar that McCaber points this out yesterday, Legate is guarded, and we awake with only one death.

For now too I feel good about Pitch who pointed out something in the rules that I overlooked. Usually that's a pretty good judge of someone's innocence, even though if wolves will read rules too, I doubt they would point out something like that which would only hurt them.

[wilwarin538]

So didn't actually have to go anywhere quite yet (had my times wrong by a bit), so here are all of our Seer's posts, and my personal commentary, aswell as some boldings I've made in the quotes:


I suppose I need to abandon my hermit lifestyle for a while. *sigh*

(Mnemo quote was here, about her plan)

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

Edit: Eonwe clarified the rules...

Didn't seem too comfortable with the idea, but seemed willing to discuss it.


This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

And what if something happens to the ranger early on? Then we have the seer for two days and then it's curtains. If that happens early on, the village will have to go on without the aid of the seer's dreams. Plus by that point a few innocents will be vulnerable.

I understand her concerns here, but don't really agree with them, but from a Seer's perspective I can see that this would make sense. No hints to a dream here though.


I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

Her "big red flag" comment here now really stands out to me. I think this pretty much tells us she had not dreamt of a wolf, since she was hoping someone would be "declared" a wolf, and then said it has not happened. This would also make sense since she was against "the plan", if she had found out a wolf she probably would have agreed to it a bit more.


I went back and read Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation (and all posts that responded early on to it). Since this is the highlight right now it seems like a logical place to look for baddies. However, time is short for me so I'll make a few points quick and come home on my lunch break to finish any thoughts.


Mnemo is quick to declare this route this easiest, life in WW is never easy though. It doesn't feel wolfish, not so early, but that doesn't absolve Mnemo.
In answering my query on the idea Mnemo states that the seer has the choice to reveal. Another innocent move, but makes me wonder about Mnemo. However, nothing Mnemo has said screams wolf to me. I want to watch Mnemo over the next few days, but I have a feeling a wolf wolf wouldn't make a suggestion for a reveal so early, but would rather encourage the idea and thrive on any and all confusion.

I will return in a few hours to make a quick statement about Wilwa's role with Mnemo's suggestion and then a vote.

See here how she kinda goes back and forth between finding her suspicious and then not? Could be that she didn't want to blatanly say she was innocent, but then also didn't want her to look too suspicious. I think she may have wanted to bring forward all reasons why someone may find Mnemo suspicious, and then state a defense for it, perhaps to sway people away from voting her. If Mnemo wasn't dead and Kit still was I would have read this and probably thought Mnemo innocent. That is all of course just my own speculation.


I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.

This is where people started finding her suspicious. It was a very odd move. The fact that she was thinking of guarding Mnemo sort of, at least to me, strengthens what I said about the previous quote.


I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.

Despite the suspiciousness of Mnemo's vote, she doesn't want to vote for her, and instead votes for someone with a not-quite-as-suspicious vote.


So there they are, with my thoughts. I feel that Mnemo was the most likely dream choice, but of course I could be wrong. She seems to be the only one she really mentions a lot.

Have to head out for real now, will be back in about 45 minutes or less with all of the duck's posts.

EDIT: Xposted with Boro, and removed highlight from Kit's vote

[wilwarin538]

Here they are. I left out a few of the random banter ones from the beginning. But I'm pretty sure I got all the others, don't think I missed any. No commentary here from me, just wanted to make those available. I might come back to her though, if I have the time.

Right.

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.

Thank you for posting before me, Boro; people who post first with cunning plans are startling Day 1 lynch targets and I'd hate to put myself on the chopping block so early.

Not that anyone would want to lynch a face like this... :Merisu:


Darn.

Take away all my fun from me, will you?

Unless we wanted to coordinate saves with the Ranger, which really is not a half bad idea when you think about it...


It's all up to the Seer and whether s/he wants to come out at this point.

Of course, likely a wolf has already thought of this and would reveal first and/or counterreveal. I don't know how we'd proceed then, unless we wanted to protect both (Ranger one and the village the other, then alternate).

But IF there were a way of knowing the Seer is real, then all we need is a simple majority of ++Guard votes. The wolves would probably be too willing to go along at this point. Next night everyone would vote according to his/her conscience and the Ranger would make the save.

My point is that normally when new and/or weird rules are introduced into the mix the wolves profit from the confusion that results.

But I think in this situation we've been handed a genuine boon, if we can learn how to use it properly.


I did not say that the Seer should reveal his/her dreams each Day. That would be the equivalent of sending the Wolves a kill list. So, not unless we nab a wolf. In the meantime, though, if we have a protected Seer we do know that we will be getting dreams to our advantage, and if the Ranger dies then the Seer can reveal all of his/her dreams to the village. Hopefully at that point (depending on dream picks vs. kill picks) we would have enough Known Innocents to keep the wolves busy killing them off while we can focus on the unknowns.


Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.


Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).


Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.


Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.


Nice catch! :eek:

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

Hmm, curious what her "crack theory" was. Really don't like it when people are so cryptic. I almost prefer no reasoning over crypticness. :rolleyes:

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Too easy?

[Inziladun]

Well, interesting turns of events, to say the least. They failed to guard you, Boro, so I trust you didn't have a hand in poor Mnemo's death! :rolleyes:

I regret being part of Kitanna's, but her vote and guard struck me as wrong, and no one else was screaming for my vote.
I haven't seen anything much of note in Kit's words, beyond what Wilwa noted about the 'red flag' comment.
Nor Mnemo's. The choice of her as a target seems rather random. I would be curious as to the details of her 'crack theory' about Wilwa though.
Nerwen, if you would be so kind, a song might cheer our hearts.
What to do with the Legate?

*takes a drink of stock ale*

[Nienna]

The Voting:

Lynch:
Nilp--> Nilp – I believe this is fairly typical.
Mnemo--> Wilwa – a theory that I’m sad we will now never know
Brinn--> McCaber – because he hadn’t posted and she didn’t find anyone suspicious
Nerwen--> Kit – thinks she was jittery about the seer reveal plan (which is in hindsight understandable) but there was something that didn’t sit right with her. She acknowledges that she doesn’t really have a proper case against Kit but says she doesn’t have a proper case against anyone. I’m leaning innocent for her at the moment.
Shasta--> Lommy – not sure why… he mentioned that he thought she looked odd earlier and that he had a busy day.
Kit--> Brinn – doesn’t like that she voted for McCaber because he wasn’t participating. She understands random votes but not the voting for someone who isn’t participating. I don’t think that Brinn was the dream.
Boro--> Kit – he thought that her reactions to Mnemo’s plan were suspicious as well as her lynch-vote for Brinn. He had been suspicious of Kit for a while… I’m leaning slightly closer to innocent than guilty for him.
Zil--> Kit – he doesn’t like her vote for Brinn. This seems like a wolf jumping on a bandwagon to me.
Greenie--> Nog – she doesn’t like how he went after Lommy and his post where he ends with “So…” (quoted in her 95). She believes that it looks really evil and she finds him more suspicious than she has ever found anyone on Day One before. Interesting.
McCaber--> Wilwa – “for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety”
Hakon--> Legate – he feels “off”
Pitchwife--> Kit – for lack of something better…he wavered between suspecting her and not suspecting her
Legate--> Wilwa – to give Kit some lynch competition it would seem. This looks innocent.[/sarcasm]
Nienna--> Zil
Wilwa--> Kit – doesn’t like voting without suspicion but wants to save herself
Nog--> Greenie – she is either too trigger happy or evil for voting for him and too much rhetorics.
Lommy--> Kit – she isn’t sure why everyone is suspicious of Wilwa
Sally--> Kit – she mentions that she thinks Kit a bit suspicious but it might be too easy

Guard:
Mnemo--> Boro – no real reason given except that she grouped him with Legate and Nog as reasonable people who are “heckawolves” and interesting to keep around. So this sounds like she guarded Boro because he could be innocent or guilty and she likes having him around.
Brinn--> Legate – she believes him innocentish, sensible, and reasonable.
Sally--> Mnemo – she believes her to be innocent and would be a good person to have on her side because she was coming up with new theories (the seer thing)
Nerwen--> Legate – because he is a likely target if innocent and he has been worrying her a little so he was a good choice in her mind no matter how you look at it
Kit--> Hakon – hasn’t posted yet so would be an easy no-trail kill. I don’t believe he was her dream though.
Shasta--> Legate – he (along with Lommy) looked odd.
Boro--> Nienna – he mentioned earlier that I have good instincts
Zil--> Boro – he wants to keep Boro around but he doesn’t want grief if he (Zil) is wrong about him (Boro). Yep Zil is still flashing wolf at me.
Nog--> Legate – to find out whether he is a wolf or not (I believe)
Greenie--> Nienna
Nienna--> Mnemo
Hakon--> Boro – he feels “innocent”
Pitchwife--> Boro – no reason (unless this is also for lack of something better)
Lommy--> Legate – to know his role … If Legate is a wolf this would seem to point toward Lommy’s innocence
Legate--> Lommy – interestingly he doesn’t try to guard someone with more votes so as to maybe not be guarded so we don’t find out he is furry.
Wilwa--> Legate (not bolded…?... does this mean it doesn’t count?)

[wilwarin538]

Another list, just cause they are crazy fun:

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.
McCaber: not too too much from him yesterDay, but his vote just bugs me, doubt I'll vote him though, but I'm watching him
Lommy: she seemed very flip-floppy (as Nog put it), the fact that she was quick to disregard both Mnemo's plan and Pitch's suggestion as being "unfair" really bugs me, since they both follow the rules perfectly, and therefore are completely fair

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, I understand why she got some guard votes yesterDay
Nienna: not seeing anything badish here
Nogrod: really trusting him, I like his logic and agree with him for the most part, I appreciate that he didn't totally throw out Mnemo's idea yesterDay, pretty sure I'm gonna vote to guard him
Pitchwife: seems fine
Sally: seems good
Shasta: seems good

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: didn't really stand out for me when I was reading back through, so don't have an opinion either way
Alona: no posts yet
Brinn: see Greenie
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say
Inziladun: see Greenie and Brinn
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: is Nilp, "Confussion" is his middle name I'm sure :p

So there we are. Gonna go sleep now. Hope to see lots when I get up!

Xposted with Nilp, Inzil and Nienna

[wilwarin538]

Too easy?

What's too easy dearie???

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Illustrious Legate and the one-kill NIGHT?

[Nienna]

It may, in fact, be too easy but I don't know if I'm willing to risk letting a wolf slip by with these odds and the wolves being able to kill two people at night. We can either lynch Legate who was heavily suspected yesterDay anyway or we can lynch someone else who has higher odds of being innocent. If we lynch Legate and find out that he is innocent then we know the wolves are messing with us and with their ability to kill two people per night.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Then again, I'm not able to make much out of our single *chortles* lead. Except that Mnemo was smart enough to come up with that plan. But she wasn't exactly quiet, was she? She polarised the village along two lines: those in favour, and those opposing. (Plus the usual slackers, but they're always there, so they don't count. :D )

Then again, nobody voted for her, nobody suspected her.

[Nerwen]

*strums lute in minor key*

Ai! Well, that was a bad start. I feel partly responsible, too... :( It's yet another example of how hard it is to distinguish between wolfish and gifted-ish behaviour.

At the risk of sticking my head in a noose– I do think we need to look at the Kit voters. Very unlikely there wasn't a wolf involved.

It may, in fact, be too easy but I don't know if I'm willing to risk letting a wolf slip by with these odds and the wolves being able to kill two people at night. We can either lynch Legate who was heavily suspected yesterDay anyway or we can lynch someone else who has higher odds of being innocent. If we lynch Legate and find out that he is innocent then we know the wolves are messing with us and with their ability to kill two people per night.

Well, I found him a trifle off yesterDay myself– but what about your own point here?–

Legate--> Lommy – interestingly he doesn’t try to guard someone with more votes so as to maybe not be guarded so we don’t find out he is furry.

I agree, though, that it does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

EDIT:X'd with The Fool.

[Nerwen]

Of course, if Boro– the runner-up in the Guard voting– were a wolf, I suppose a Legwolf wouldn't have voted him.

EDIT:spelling.

[McCaber]

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have just skimmed throught toDay as I don't have that much time, just a few notes.

First, of course the Wolves are framing us, and I would apply on the village to say that lynching me would really be stupid. If that goes on, you can always lynch me later (at most when you don't have any other people and it's some Day Fifty), but this frame-up is so transparent once it's been done. Look at it from the Wolves' point of view, if they had the incredible luck of getting rid of a Seer, and they can still have two kills per every Night, I don't see that it would be too much of a pain for them to leave out one kill. (And especially if they can easily lynch one innocent on this Day by accusing him like this.)

Right now I have a very bad feeling about wilwa, partially also about sally and also about Hakon, who just pops out and says to lynch me yesterday, and then pops out and says today:
Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.
Which just stinks.

Okay, had to go now, will be back later during the Day. You can line up with questions on me meanwhile, if you have any, but it'll be in some eight hours from now at first when I can answer.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609625&postcount=169) that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

[Brinniel]

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? :rolleyes: Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Because I didn't see anyone I'd like to keep alive.

I'm killing myself, why should y'all be protected? :p

[satansaloser2005]

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

I love you. That is all.



So I thought I'd have more time to work on Werewolf tonight but I've gotten some unexpected stuff to do and I'm really rather tired. I'll be back tomorrow and will be around a lot more a couple hours before deadline.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

[Pitchwife]

*shows up with his head heavily bandaged after a night of banging head against the wall*
Dang! Dang! It's happened again! Why didn't I heed my cousin's warnings? He told me the Seer might look wolfish at times... Now we know why Kit was jittery about The Plan, but it's too late. We should have known better.
About my Guard vote for Boro - he was on my shortlist for Guarding all the time from my #107 yesterday, I just had to pick one of them, and he seemed as good as any. As for Legate, his comeback post yesterDay soothed some of my doubts about him, so I didn't find it quite as urgent to Guard against him as a wolf. Nevertheless, I'm glad he got the majority, as the outcome is certainly interesting. But right now, I'm too confused to think straight about it.
I think I'll have to see Shasta for some Middle-earth equivalent to paracetamol. A few hours of quiet work will do me good, too. Any suggestions as to the epitaph for Kit's tombstone?
See you all later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Vote time, I guess. My brother wants the comp soon.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

++Inziladun

And:

++wilwarin538.

I hope to be back in a few hours, but don't count on it. *mutters rebelliously about 6am DAY deadlines*

[Thinlómien]

Just a quick comment right now - I can't see what the wolves would have gained by intentionally leaving out the kill and framing Legate. Made sure an innocent is lynched on Day2, sure, but why not kill an innocent during the Night and try to get another innocent lynched the next Day? Why would they not maximise the destruction?

Okay, I can see two options, neither of them being very probable:
1) they want Legate especially killed. Since they can't suspect him of seerdom, I can't see a reason why would they want him dead so badly that they would leave out a kill because of that.
2) they are messing with our heads on purpose (I have a theory about this, but I'm not sure if it makes sense, so I won't post it until later if I find out it makes sense - I would need to think about it but I won't have the time or the enthusiasm right now).

So, it would be the most logical option that Legate's a wolf. And to me, his post from toDay does look like that a bit - I think an innocent would react differently, he's too calm and calculated and nice. But I will refrain from giving final judgement until he comes back, but right now I consider him guilty until proven innocent.

Now, off to comment on stuff.

[Eönwë]

can they even do that? Mod?
Yes. if they wish to, they can only kill one person at Night.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)
And yes again. If there is a tie in votes for lynching, the person to die will be selected randomly.

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Back. Reading.

[wilwarin538]

If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.


Hmm?? Don't see the connection.


So I still think that there is no way the wolves would have given up that extra kill. Yes it messes with our heads, which I'm sure they enjoy, but it doesn't really benefit them in a solid way. So they want Legate dead? Well they could have just killed him toNight, they wouldn't of had to set him up for us to kill him. They could have gotten two innocents last Night, plus (statistically) we probably would have lynched another innocent toDay. It's so early in the game, and they are but 4 people hidden among 18 that there is no way they were soooo scared of getting lynched that they resorted to setting him up. I'm not at all convinced of that. They're ability to kill 2 at Night will only last for so long, since we will eventually get a wolf, and they know this. They wouldn't have given that up purely just to confuse us...we usually confuse ourselves fairly easily on our own nyway. :rolleyes:

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

[Thinlómien]

So......I have to say I`m extremely dissapointed, we were given this amazing oppurtunity to get atleast 3 dreams known out of the Seer, and now we have nothing.I can't say that didn't cross my mind too when I heard about the disaster of yesterDay (and really, I agree with Boro - no, no not AGAIN), but I'm not still ready to say I (or anyone else) should have had a different opinion, I don't think it would necessarily have worked (especially as Kit herself wasn't too enthusiastic, was she?) and I'm still not sure it'd have been fair.

Speaking of which:
the fact that she was quick to disregard both Mnemo's plan and Pitch's suggestion as being "unfair" really bugs me, since they both follow the rules perfectly, and therefore are completely fairBeing according the rules does not always equal fair in life (and breaking the rules does not always equal unfair, except maybe in ww ;)). But I simply didn't like Mnemo's plan, it didn't feel fair to me even though it was allowed by the rules. I can't recall Pitch's suggestion exactly (or rather, all the different guard-vote suggestions are melting into one mess in my head and I can't remember who said what) but I kind of wavered on whether that was just smart or a bit immoral. But anyway, I ended up guard-voting Legate mostly just to know his role, so I would consider the fairness debate on that issue settled for my part.

Anyway, I find it confusing that Legate was all talking about the benefits of finding out people's roles and even developing the theories - I think - and now he is what he is.

And I'm not so sure about Kitanna's dream. She could have dreamt of someone she didn't mention (playing it safe from the Night-kill point of view) or maybe even Hakon (planning to leave clues by guard-votes) or then Mnemo, like Wilwa suggested, because that makes the most sense but then again she didn't speak very seer-dreamishly about her, at least in my opinion. I hate to discredit the seer's only remaining posts - but probably she dreamt of Mnemo, who's dead, and if she dreamt of someone else, the evidence is not clear enough that we could use it, so at least in my opinion much can't be found out (which sucks).

And I forgot to both do it and say I'll do it, but I'll reread the rules now because I'm still a bit confused of some aspects of this game and maybe that could even shed light on the Legate "mystery"...

Wilwa is confusing me to the point that I'm wondering whether I voted to save a wolf on the last minute again. *facepalm* :rolleyes: But then again, she's not really that bad, I'll wait and see... It's just something in her overtly energetic or eager manner that bugs me. She's sort of too quick to draw conclusions, which never is a good sign. But I doubt I'm going to lynch-vote her toDay anyway, because if she's innocent it'd be good to keep her around because she's really contributing a lot and she's smart.


edit: xed with Eönwë and wilwax2 and Nerwen

[wilwarin538]

I am quite comfortable with being guarded, at least now, if it proves my innocence, for example (or if the Wolves want to bluff and save one kill, that's as good as that, but I doubt them trying that).


Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.

[Boromir88]

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. :rolleyes: But as we know that didn't happen.

[wilwarin538]

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. :rolleyes: But as we know that didn't happen.

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. :rolleyes: But as we know that didn't happen.And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things. We had a full DAY's vote (save two villagers), we had someone propose a bold plan (and the supporters and detractors thereof). There are lots of other things to look at, village, and we're spending too much time scrutinising but a part of it. Think about that.

*fondly remembers the times he has been tied to the stake just to test theories*

[A Little Green]

Whoa. I wasn't expecting that. I wasn't that suspicious about Leggie yesterDay, but I've been thinking and really can't come up with any sensible reason for the wolves to let pass a Night kill for the sake of framing Legate. Sure, they'd like seeing an innocent lynched, but it just doesn't make sense that they give up their other Night kill for that. Therefore I'll probably vote Legate toDay. It's simply much more evidence against him than there is against anyone else, and if we let him live and he turned out to be a baddie I'd drown myself in a bucket. :D

And then there is this find of Wilwa's: I am quite comfortable with being guarded, at least now, if it proves my innocence, for example (or if the Wolves want to bluff and save one kill, that's as good as that, but I doubt them trying that).Not sure if it's because I read it now that it seems like he's a wolf, but this looks like he was expecting only one kill last Night whereas everyone toDay seems more or less surprised by it. If he is a wolf, though, he'd have known there will only be one kill if he's guarded.

If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.
Hmm?? Don't see the connection.Someone (can't remember who, too lazy to check) said that the wolves might want to frame Legate if one of their mates was in danger, and you had the second biggest number of votes yesterDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa and Nilp

I have quite a lot of stuff to do still today but I'll be more or less around from now on, or at least checking the thread at regular intervals.

[A Little Green]

So. I'll be off now to do some school stuff (bleurgh), I'll probably be back in some hours. You can expect a list from me toDay, featuring every villager.

[wilwarin538]

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'


Well yeah, the Ranger probably would have protected him toNight, but the wolves would have just gotten him the following Night. Known innocents never stay alive for that long, we all know that. But right now, so early in the game with still so many players and all the wolves, 1 known innocent is not that big of a threat to the wolves. Maybe on like Day 9 when it's down to 8 people or something, then I would understand. But now? No. The bluff isn't worth it, it doesn't get them any further ahead.

I also seriously doubt that, if they did give up the extra kill, that they would ever do it a second time, that would just put them way to far behind.

Anyway, I do agree that we probably shouldn't only concentrate on this one topic, despite how compelling it may be. I'm going to go take a closer look at the vote break downs that have been provided and see if anything stands out for me.

x'posted with Greenie x 2

[wilwarin538]

Someone (can't remember who, too lazy to check) said that the wolves might want to frame Legate if one of their mates was in danger, and you had the second biggest number of votes yesterDay.


Oh, k, thanks for the clarification.

[Boromir88]

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?~Nilp
Good point. But it also works against your argument.

That's the point, there are other gifteds. The seer is the most dangerous threat to the wolves, but they shouldn't get cocky. There are other gifteds, and other secret roles, which can turn out to be known innocents too. Too many known innocents is as much of a threat to the wolves as the seer can be. Ask Nienna about it, despite lynching the seer on Day 1, having so many potential known innocents at the end nearly ruined them.

I can see the wolves trying it if they need one lynch for a victory, but there's a lot of villagers, and still a lot of threats to the wolves, even if the seer is dead. If they want to play games and waste kill chances be my guest. But pulling a trick, just to frame an innocent because they are feeling good about fortune on Day 1 makes little sense.

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things.~Nilp
Relax. I said that very thing in my first post, but I'm tired, I have school and other things I'm busy with, allow me a bit more time.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well the only thing I really gathered from the vote tally was that Inzil's could be seen as a bandwagon type vote, but I don't think that's enough on it's own for me to really find him suspicious. Otherwise nothing really stood out, atleast nothing I haven't already mentioned.

So....I don't know what else to say. I may go skim through Day 1 again, see if anything pops out to me. I have way to much time on my hands today....

[Nerwen]

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If they did, they were giving up a kill solely in order to give them a possible advantage in a possible future situation. It can only pay off if we happen to guard a wolf while all four of them are still alive, and maybe not even then.

We can't of course, rule it out– people do silly things sometimes, so why not werewolves? I'm just saying, your particular scenario requires poor judgement on the part of the villains.
EDIT:x'd with Wilwa.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, once again some brief responses and then let's see what else comes, if anything. Btw once again the discussion has shifted to rather one-sided "lynch Legate or not", which is of course understandable, but also it serves very nice to the Wolves, as nothing else gets done at all.

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate
Just a quick comment right now - I can't see what the wolves would have gained by intentionally leaving out the kill and framing Legate. Made sure an innocent is lynched on Day2, sure, but why not kill an innocent during the Night and try to get another innocent lynched the next Day? Why would they not maximise the destruction?
So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

(And similarly many others.)

Well, why is it so unimaginable? Let's just see - the Wolves got a Seer, and they have TWO KILLS, more than they have in a normal game, which is BONUS for them now. Unbalance for their side is 2:1, and we have no Seer after yesterDay! And the yesterNight for them must be something like Day 1 for the innocents when it comes to losses - i.e. it's still early in the game, and I think for the Wolves missing one kill out of two could be compared to how do innocents feel towards lynching a fellow innocent on Day 1 (of course, if he's not a Seer). That is, okay, it's bad of course, but it's not that much of a pain in the end. And maybe it also saves them trouble for thinking of two kills, thus giving more grounds for suspicion, perhaps. (Though that's really just a minor thing that just comes on my mind, not a real reason.) And like pointed out above, it actually - at least NOW and TODAY in this case, from the looks of it, lets them make the innocents WASTE ONE DAY on debating about a false suspect.
Anyway, framing an innocent also means that they don't need to worry that one of them will be lynched toDay. Lynching is what would kill one of them, thus deprave them of their double-kills, and so actually (and maybe if one of them was under high suspicion and was likely to be lynched toDay?) it is even better for them to miss one kill on first Night to still ensure that they have two kills on next Night AND also a dead Innocent by Day 2, lynched, AND that also means that toDay they don't need to worry that much about voting, as many people will join the bandwagon anyway.
And also, as last possible reason, they could as well just do it to make fun of the village. If nothing else, if you lynch me, this will be what will be memorable for them on this game, whether they win or lose. I can for example imagine the likes of Nogrod enjoying stuff like that, for mere "sport".

So by the way, by the paraghraph above my last one I disprove of this conclusion by Wilwa:

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.
And speaking of her, not sure what's "funny" about that, more like, it makes it sound MORE unlikely that I'd be a Wolf, does it?

Anyway, I like wilwa less and less, given her "la-di-da" way of posting about me, trying to sound sometimes as if she's genuinely wondering whether I am really a Wolf, as if thinking really hard and trying to be just, but that just sounds too false.

And now this:

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.
As if closing it up. Wonderful. Even if I am dead, then I would certainly hope then that you are going to be the first.

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

One sane point among all the people is this, the first sentence, and also the continued unfolded thought after that. It comes from the village fool - what does it say, Tolkien's point about those who seem to be the fools being sometimes the ones who are actually wiser?

[wilwarin538]

So a few things popped from yesterDay:

I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)

I don't really like the sound of this. Partly because the guarding isn't just to guard the gifteds, though they are the ones we'd want to keep around more, but it's also to try to protect someone who is very useful and has good ideas. Also, just the fact that he dubbed himself an ordo I don't like, I never like it when people do that, seems too faked. So I'm a bit uneasy about Pitch, but not in a "I'm gonna vote him" way, more like a "I'm gonna pay close attention to him" way.

No? Blast. I was quite looking forward to it. Give us an extra one toMorrow. Just not one about wolves.
Can't say as I have anything solid at this point as regarding suspicions. However, I'll go ahead with this:

++ Guard Boro

I thought of Legate, but I'd like Boro to stick around another Day, and not get up to mischief if I'm wrong about him.

As for the lynch vote...

Think I'll have to go with Kitanna. I don't care for the reasoning of her vote on Brinn.

++ Kitanna

I don't understand what he's trying to say in the bolded part. I'd appreciate some clarification from him about that reasoning. And then the Kit vote does look overly bandwagonnish to me, but Inzil, like Pitch, is someone I'm more uneasy about, and not necessarilly suspicious of.

And from earlier toDay:



Anyway, I like wilwa less and less, given her "la-di-da" way of posting about me, trying to sound sometimes as if she's genuinely wondering whether I am really a Wolf, as if thinking really hard and trying to be just, but that just sounds too false.


La-di-da? I'm strongly leaning towards you being guilty, but just incase you are not I want to explore the explanations behind that possibility. To me it just seems so obvious, but I want to explore all of the possibilities anyway. I'm trying to be open-minded and fair, not flippant.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

By the way, one important thing that occured to me now. Just in case I am lynched or anything. The village'd better remember that.

If the village protects somebody at Night, AND there are two kills, the person will become a known innocent on the next Day.

What, then, logically Wolves would do? Kill the person on next Night. Though, if we have a Ranger, of course the known innocent will be protected. And he can be NightGuarded next Night. And so on. So...?

Please think about this in general, and not just about myself, if you don't trust me or something (because I now want to prove this point, mainly. Although of course, it also brings in a reason for the Wolves' behavior in my case - OF COURSE, as I am one of the cases, I am an innocent). But you may try to imagine yourselves in such a situation of being Night Guarded or something. Or imagine imaginary Mr. X. in such a position.

Actually, if we didn't think of that yet on Day 1, the Wolves maybe did think of that later at Night (more brains can put more thoughts together...), which could explain very well why they didn't make two kills either. Because they may just continue doing this until the Village realises that it doesn't work that way.

Because if the Wolves kept having two kills per Night, every Night will mean a) two dead innocents and b) one living known innocent being around. That will slowly turn into accumulating known innocents. Because: one ordo, Mr. A, is guarded at Night 2. Two kills happen that Night. Ergo, Mr. A is innocent. Ranger protects him on Night 3, and the village guards Mr. B, an ordo. There are two kills that Night as well. Ergo, by the next Day, the village has two known innocents, one of whom (Mr.B) may be guarded by Ranger the next Night and another (Mr.A) may be guarded by the Night Guard. Even if the village had nothing better, they could now have two known innocents alive for the whole game. It's a bit like the Seer idea that's been here yesterDay (and who knows, maybe that's where the Wolves realised this possibility of that what I just said could happen.

And with all humbleness, somehow I think that the Wolves would not like the idea of myself remaining as Mr. A, being alive for the rest of the game as a known innocent. So it was actually the choice of the Wolves: had they made two kills last Night, I would have been a known innocent for sure. And I could, theoretically, if the village decided like that, survive all the time.

OKAY! So actually I think I have it. See, I was thinking "on the run", but the more I think of it the more sense it makes. So actually, the Night Guard for the WWs is really BAAAD thing, as it totally ruins their plans, as long as they can kill at least two people per Night (thus can forgo one kill), it's ok, but as soon as they are reduced to three WWs and can kill only once per Night, it will become APPARENT that the protected one is an innocent (if there is a kill that Night), or then the WWs would have to deliberately miss a kill and thus not to kill anybody. So maybe the WWs can take the longer run - to be on the safe side - and let the Village do the work with them, by lynching innocents, while at Night the balance would be zero.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

La-di-da? I'm strongly leaning towards you being guilty, but just incase you are not I want to explore the explanations behind that possibility. To me it just seems so obvious, but I want to explore all of the possibilities anyway. I'm trying to be open-minded and fair, not flippant.

That sounds very fair, but just the way you happily scream "I am pretty certain that Legate will be our first Wolf!" when Boro agrees with you or such does not make it sound that good - or your thoughts, or approach, that consistent.

[wilwarin538]

So when it's down to 3 wolves, if the village protects a wolf they don't get a Night kill at all? Am I understanding this right? I had thought this only applied to when there was 4 wolves.

If that's true then that just strengthens my suspicion of Legate even more. They should be wanting to take advantage of the double kills for as long as possible, since later on they could be losing a kill sometimes. Not to mention if that happens later on then we know that whoever we protected would be guilty, and there's a wolf down. They're entire purpose is to get the village numbers down to equal there's, so they should be killing us as fast as possible. A few known innocents here and there wouldn't cause that big of a problem, atleast not this early. Maybe if they bluffed like this later on in the game when there's like 3 known innocents lingering around or something, but right now? No, I still don't see how that could benefit them enough to make it worth it.


x'posted with Legate, so I got a little excited, we lost our seer so early of course I'm excited at the prospect of getting a wolf toDay, and not having to worry about double Night kills is a relief as well

[wilwarin538]

hmm, Eonwe just posted in the Admin thread that if the Ranger is guarded by us then s/he can't protect anyone. That's a useful piece of info.

[Nienna]

If I am reading and understanding the rules correctly it would seem that while someone is under the village's protection then they can't do their role.

It would be like us taking this person and locking them in a room. The room is guarded and protected so the wolves can't get them but they also can't leave to go protect, hunt, kill someone.

So I'm thinking that since the wolves only get 2 kills if there are four of them then if one is locked up they only get 1 kill. If however there are three wolves and they only get one kill anyway then one locked up would only be like there were two wolves and they would still get a kill.

Does this make sense?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So when it's down to 3 wolves, if the village protects a wolf they don't get a Night kill at all? Am I understanding this right? I had thought this only applied to when there was 4 wolves.

No, only if there's one wolf the wolves don't get a kill at all if village guards him. Which is actually a good reason for them to try to remain in big numbers, as one lonely last remaining Wolf can be safely guarded just as well as lynched.

But if you read my post above, there is this another thing: if the wolves are down to 3 and they decide not to kill, then they of course get no kill that night.

But still they'd be able to survive on that, theoretically, of course. Not sure if it's technically possible for the WWs to wipe out the village in this way, as eventually the villagers would be forced to adopt a different tactic, but if the village keeps lynching innocents and the WWs get still two kills per Night (skipping one of them in order to make the village unsure as of the role of the guarded person), the WWs would eventually win. And they would win even if there were just three of them, of course, hypothetically again in a rather crazy scenario - but theoretically, yes (as the village would eventually wipe out its innocents, of course there might be wolves guarded too, but still it's somewhat "safer" for the wolves, at least they know who's going to be lynched next Day, and letting the village do the dirty work).

Balance ratio in case of four WWs present still in the game (tactics possible to adopt by the WWs since the very beginning):

1) One guarded person, WWs kill two people per Night: good for the Wolves, but known innocents start to appear (see my above post) and whenever there is a Wolf guarded, suddenly there is one kill less, which will of course immediately cause attention raising.
2) One guarded person, WWs kill one person per Night: the village is in total darkness and is forced to either lynch each guarded person on next Day, thus lynching (just statistically) mostly innocents and thus making it far easier for the WWs to survive, or then they have to do something else and just not trust anything. But still, whatever the village does, there is one dead innocent per Night, and together with the Day, very likely two, and no Wolf dead. It just makes the game a bit slower, but essentially controlled by the Wolves.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post. Yes, Ni, that's exactly it, correct.

[Inziladun]

I'll say one thing for Legate: he puts quite a bit of effort into defending himself, and seems adept at thinking like a wolf. Oddly enough, he finds comfort in that manic Village Fool, whose ire I've apparently drawn. Wisdom, or lamentable folly? Time will tell.
Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

I don't understand what he's trying to say in the bolded part. I'd appreciate some clarification from him about that reasoning. And then the Kit vote does look overly bandwagonnish to me, but Inzil, like Pitch, is someone I'm more uneasy about, and not necessarilly suspicious of.

My guard vote for Boro was a bit tongue-in-cheek, a reference to the past. Also, at the time I coudn't really see the push for guarding Legate, so I picked someone who seemed innocentish, and who I wanted to see make it to Day 2. The remark about keeping him out of mischief was more of a throwaway, but also an admission that I could have been wrong in trusting him.
And like I said, Kitanna's vote had a bad feel to it, and that with her Hakon guard vote made her the only one I really could see voting for lynching.
Speaking of Hakon, has he been here at all toDay?

[Eönwë]

It would be like us taking this person and locking them in a room. The room is guarded and protected so the wolves can't get them but they also can't leave to go protect, hunt, kill someone.

Precisely. That is a perfect explanation.

[Inziladun]

So I'm thinking that since the wolves only get 2 kills if there are four of them then if one is locked up they only get 1 kill. If however there are three wolves and they only get one kill anyway then one locked up would only be like there were two wolves and they would still get a kill.

Would wolves know their own capabilities best? ;)

[Nerwen]

No, only if there's one wolf the wolves don't get a kill at all if village guards him.

Where in the rules does it say that, Legate?

I can find only this:

The Werewolves: The "bad guys" of the game. There will be four of them. When all four are alive, they will be able to vote two players to kill each Night. Once one of the has been eliminated, they will only get one kill per Night.


And this:

When a person is guarded, then cannot be killed by the wolves that Night. If the person is a wolf, they may not make any contact at Night with the other Werewolves (therefore they may not PM, and they will not be counted as a living werewolf for that Night

EDIT:Sorry, I get it now.

[Nienna]

Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

Nope. Sorry. You are next on my list too Zil. Just so you know.


Precisely. That is a perfect explanation.
Thanks! :cool: I was thinking we could give the room a cool name. Sally could probably come up with something cool.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Where in the rules does it say that, Legate?

I was thinking about this part:

and they will not be counted as a living werewolf for that Night

Though once again, I don't know. I thought I saw that somewhere there written, but maybe once again either I just concluded it myself from what I have read there, or then our noble Mayor has rewritten the rules in some way from then, but I don't know. Well I would assume so, also from what Mayor said just a few posts ago: locked in a room, one WW can't do anything, right?

[Inziladun]

Nope. Sorry. You are next on my list too Zil. Just so you know.

Ahh. So you intend to get me lynched instead of killing me at night. :eek:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'll say one thing for Legate: he puts quite a bit of effort into defending himself, and seems adept at thinking like a wolf.

So I'm thinking that since the wolves only get 2 kills if there are four of them then if one is locked up they only get 1 kill. If however there are three wolves and they only get one kill anyway then one locked up would only be like there were two wolves and they would still get a kill.Would wolves know their own capabilities best? ;)

Are you saying this to everybody?

[wilwarin538]

Ok, I was just a bit confused there. But my previous comment still (for the most part) makes some sense.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.

Yes, wolves love causing chaos, yes they would love to be able to have some control, and yes they don't like having known innocents all over the place. But the only way they win is by dwindling our numbers down to match there's, and each Day they keep even one more of us alive is another Day they risk getting lynched. Only one of them needs to die for them to lose the double kill, I think they would take advantage of the opportunity as much as possible for as long as possible.

This all reminds of one game where someone thought we should lynch a person being modfired. Practically everyone was against the idea of losing that lynch oppurtunity (since that's the only way for us to kill wolves), just like I'm sure the wolves wouldn't want to give up a kill (since they need to get our numbers way down from 18 to atleast 4).

x'posted since Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Balance ratio in case of four WWs present still in the game (tactics possible to adopt by the WWs since the very beginning):

1) One guarded person, WWs kill two people per Night: good for the Wolves, but known innocents start to appear (see my above post) and whenever there is a Wolf guarded, suddenly there is one kill less, which will of course immediately cause attention raising.
2) One guarded person, WWs kill one person per Night: the village is in total darkness and is forced to either lynch each guarded person on next Day, thus lynching (just statistically) mostly innocents and thus making it far easier for the WWs to survive, or then they have to do something else and just not trust anything. But still, whatever the village does, there is one dead innocent per Night, and together with the Day, very likely two, and no Wolf dead. It just makes the game a bit slower, but essentially controlled by the Wolves..

What if the villagers keep to the tactic of guarding likely wolves– and they guess correctly? Even once might do– according to the lore they taught me in Minstrel School, a wolf generally leaves trails to his packmates– we could take it from there.

EDIT: X'd since my last post.

[wilwarin538]

Well, I have to head out for a few hours, I'll be here for the last (atleast) 3 hours before the DL, which is when I will vote and such.

My brain totally needs a break from the chaos. :rolleyes:;)

[Inziladun]

Are you saying this to everybody?

Not sure what you mean. Care to elaborate?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, I was just a bit confused there. But my previous comment still (for the most part) makes some sense.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.

Yes, wolves love causing chaos, yes they would love to be able to have some control, and yes they don't like having known innocents all over the place. But the only way they win is by dwindling our numbers down to match there's, and each Day they keep even one more of us alive is another Day they risk getting lynched. Only one of them needs to die for them to lose the double kill, I think they would take advantage of the opportunity as much as possible for as long as possible.

This all reminds of one game where someone thought we should lynch a person being modfired. Practically everyone was against the idea of losing that lynch oppurtunity (since that's the only way for us to kill wolves), just like I'm sure the wolves wouldn't want to give up a kill (since they need to get our numbers way down from 18 to atleast 4).

x'posted since Nerwen

Now you have not either read my point through or are misinterpretating it intentionally. The Wolves would actually be in BETTER situation, if it went EVERY DAY like this, then - let me show an example:

Killing one person per Night:
Day 1 - Lynching a Seer. Wolves:villagers 1:0
Night 2 - Innocent is guarded and Wolves decide to gamble and kill only one person. Wolves:villagers 2:0
Day 2 - Villagers now decide to lynch the guarded one. Wolves:villagers 3:0
Night 3 - Again an innocent is guarded and the Wolves kill just one person. Wolves:villagers 4:0
Day 3 - Villagers now lynch the guarded one. Wolves:villagers 5:0

And so on.

WHEREAS

Killing two people per Night:
Day 1 - Lynching a Seer. Wolves:villagers 1:0
Night 2 - Innocent is guarded and Wolves decide to kill two people. Wolves:villagers 2:0
Day 2 - Villagers now have one definitely known innocent and choose somebody else to lynch, whoever that might be. It may even be a Wolf. Wolves:villagers 3:0 or 3:1 if a Wolf is lynched, plus one Innocent is known. (So let's call it 3:2 for the sake of making score.)
Night 3 - Again an innocent is guarded and the Wolves kill two people. Wolves:villagers 4:1(2)
Day 3 - Another innocent is known (if the former innocent was guarded, he is still alive), and today the village has its hands free to lynch another Wolf. If they do, it's Wolves:villagers 4:2(+the village has two known innocents, so if we give them points for that, then 4:4!!! And the ratio is getting rather bad for the Wolves. Count it whichever way you like, I hope it's clear what I am trying to say by this.)

Just try to imagine all this situation from the point of view of the Wolves, as that's what is important. Why would they decide the way they did - because it's the best for them. If the village reacts in the way they expect (lynching the guarded person), they get ONE MORE DAY, when they don't have to fear of themselves being lynched at all.

So sorry, wilwa, but your example is flawed.

(I am repeating still the same thing in a bit different words.)

What if the villagers keep to the tactic of guarding likely wolves– and they guess correctly? Even once might do– according to the lore they taught me in Minstrel School, a wolf generally leaves trails to his packmates– we could take it from there.

Surely. But just anyway - imagine that the Wolves have to decide in a situation when an innocent, and not a Wolf is being guarded (which is just what happened). What can they choose? I believe this is obvious.

And I agree, I said that it's not of course granted that Wolves don't get guarded and subsequently lynched. But then, if they see the danger coming towards them (like that it seems that several of them are under suspicion or possibility of Guard, or such). And just statistically, it's (I believe, I am no mathematician) more probable for a WW to be lynched during a normal lynching than guarded and then lynched, especially if there were several cases of innocents being guarded before, or such. Also, if people use the Guard function to guard Wolves, they nullify its second positive value, which is to protect somebody they want to have around as being useful to the village.
But the Wolves, creating such a confusion, mainly, would make it that it would effectively nullify the Night Guard as a means of discerning somebody's guilt or innocence, that's the main point. Of course I don't believe it would just be possible to have a game where the village just keeps going like a programmed machine, guard a person, then after the Night lynch the same person, and so on - people will change their tactics at one point. Just note, btw, that that is just what is happening to me right now.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Not sure what you mean. Care to elaborate?

That you keep saying everybody they are good in thinking like a Wolf. "Are you saying this to everybody?" was my question.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, btw, just to add to my post with the examples above, the flaw I meant was this:

Yes, wolves love causing chaos, yes they would love to be able to have some control, and yes they don't like having known innocents all over the place. But the only way they win is by dwindling our numbers down to match there's, and each Day they keep even one more of us alive is another Day they risk getting lynched.

My point was that, of course, as long as us villagers keep lynching the Night Guarded innocents, then NO Wolf would get lynched (as you can see from my above examples). So your words about chaos and control are nice, but you have picked completely sideway comment from my post and made it sound as if it was the most important point of my postulate. Not at all. The point was that the Wolves, if facing the choice whether to have a double kill or leave the village in dark, especially as they expect that the village is yet "young" and will lynch their Guarded person, are better choosing to lose one kill, and having a free ride on the next Day. That's more or less it. (Of course the village can choose differently etc., but it's just all too better chance, and also probably an appealing choice, I would say.)

[Nerwen]

But the Wolves, creating such a confusion, mainly, would make it that it would effectively nullify the Night Guard as a means of discerning somebody's guilt or innocence, that's the main point.

But your argument also nullifies it, doesn't it?

And just statistically, it's (I believe, I am no mathematician) more probable for a WW to be lynched during a normal lynching than guarded and then lynched

Only if the guarding (and subsequent lack of a kill) was the only reason for the lynching.

EDIT: x'd with Legate.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, btw, just to add to my post with the examples above, the flaw I meant was this:



My point was that, of course, as long as us villagers keep lynching the Night Guarded innocents, then NO Wolf would get lynched (as you can see from my above examples). So your words about chaos and control are nice, but you have picked completely sideway comment from my post and made it sound as if it was the most important point of my postulate. Not at all. The point was that the Wolves, if facing the choice whether to have a double kill or leave the village in dark, especially as they expect that the village is yet "young" and will lynch their Guarded person, are better choosing to lose one kill, and having a free ride on the next Day. That's more or less it. (Of course the village can choose differently etc., but it's just all too better chance, and also probably an appealing choice, I would say.)

1. You say "us innocents", which is generally a baddie tell, :p.

2. You're assuming that the village never guards a wolf, which is a bad assumption to make considering there are four of them.

Edit: X'd with Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

My point was that, of course, as long as us villagers keep lynching the Night Guarded innocents, then NO Wolf would get lynched (as you can see from my above examples).

As I said, your examples assume that no wolf is ever Guarded.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.