Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nerwen]

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

Out of curiosity, who do you find the "most suspicious"?

–Anyway, I'm going to try voting him.

Lynch:

++Hakon

I'm not at all sure about this, though– in fact I seem to be flip-flopping in a manner worthy of Lommy. At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

Guard:

++Nienna.

Despite being one of the Shasta Three, she seems okay, and has contributed a lot. (I'm not ruling out that she could be an extremely sneaky wolf, but at the moment she's low on my suspicion list.)

[Nerwen]

Good Night, and let's hope we lynch the right person!

[satansaloser2005]

DAY ONE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate
Pitchie-->Kit (4)
Legate-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Dun
Wilwa-->Kit (5)
Nog-->Greenie
Lommie-->Kit(6)
Sally-->Kit(7)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate (2)
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (3)
Pitchie-->Boro (4)
Lommie-->Legate (5)
Legate-->Lommie
Wilwa-->Legate (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp



DAY TWO

Lynch:
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Legate
Boro-->Legate (2)
Hakon-->Legate (3)
Greenie-->Legate (4)
Lommie-->Dun (2)
Nienna-->Legate (5)
Wilwa-->Legate (6)
Brinn-->Legate (7)
Pitch-->Legate (8)
Cabbie-->Dun (3)
Nessa-->Legate (9)
Nog-->Legate (10)
Dun-->Legate (11)
Legate-->Dun (4)
Sally-->Legate (12)

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta


Guard:
Nilp-->Wilwa
Nerwen-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog
Lommie-->Nilp
Nienna-->Nerwen (2)
Brinn-->Shasta
Pitch-->Nog (2)
Cabbie-->Noggie (3)
Wilwa-->Noggie (4)
Nessa-->Noggie (5)
Legate-->Nilp (2)
Dun-->Nog (6)
Nog-->Boro
Hakon-->Nog
Sally-->Nienna

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta



DAY THREE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Dun (2)
Dun-->Brinn
Nog-->(abstain)
Nienna-->Dun (3)
Wilwa-->Dun (4)
Brinn-->Dun (5)
Greenie-->Sally
Pitchie-->Boro
Hakon-->Nienna

Didn't vote: Nessa, Boro, Cabbie, Sally, Shasta


Guard:
Nilp-->Boro
Nerwen-->Boro (2)
Dun-->Pitchie
Nog-->Nerwen
Nienna-->Shasta
Wilwa-->Nerwen (2)
Hakon-->Pitchie (2)
Brinn-->Nerwen (3)
Greenie-->Pitchie (3)
Pitchie-->Shasta (2)
Sally-->Shasta (3)

Didn't vote: Nessa, Boro, Cabbie, Shasta


So, each person's voting (lynching/guarding)

Greenie: Nog, Legate (4), Sally/Nienna (2), Nog, Pitch (3)
Alona: never voted, like, ever
Boro: Kit (2), Legate (2), didn't vote/Nienna, Nerwen, didn't vote
Brinn: Cabbie, Legate (7), Dun (5)/Legate, Shasta, Nerwen (3)
Hakon: Legate, Legate (3), Nienna/Boro (3), Noggie, Pitch (2)
Dun: Kit (3), Legate (11), Brinn/Boro (2), Nog (6), Pitch
Kit: Brinn/Hakon
Legate: Wilwa (3), Dun (4)/Lommie, Nilp (2)
Cabbie: Wilwa (2), Dun (3), didn't vote/didn't vote, Nog (3), didn't vote
Duckling: Wilwa/Boro
Nerwen: Kit, Legate, Dun (2)/Legate, Dun, Boro (2)
Nessa: didn't vote, Legate (9), didn't vote/didn't vote, Nog (5), didn't vote
Nienna: Dun, Legate (5), Dun (3)/Mnemo (2), Nerwen (2), Shasta
Nilp: Nilp, Dun, Dun/didn't vote, Wilwa, Boro
Noggie: Greenie, Legate (10), abstain/Legate (4), Boro, Nerwen
Pitchie: Kit (4), Legate (8), Boro/Boro (4), Nog (2), Shasta (2)
Sally: Kit (7), Legate (12), didn't vote/Mnemo, Nienna, Shasta (3)
Shasta: Lommie, didn't vote, didn't vote/Legate (3), didn't vote, didn't vote
Lommie: Kit (6), Dun (2)/Legate (5), Nilp
Wilwa: Kit (5), Legate (6), Dun (4)/Legate (6), Noggie (4), Nerwen (2)

I'll make my conclusions in a bit. Really, I needed to get this in a format I could digest so I could take a good look at it. Back in a bit with reactions and such.

EDIT: x'd since Brinn's post re: modfire

[Eönwë]

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

No. The wolves will not lose a kill toNight if Shasta is modfired. Nessa still has another Day.

[A Little Green]

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.I'm afraid I failed miserably at making myself clear. No, I wasn't saying practically everyone who voted the wolf looks guilty. I was saying that at least one of them is probably a wolf and was pondering who is the most likely candidate (and didn't get too far, as you doubtlessly noticed). I agree with the point you bring in the end of the second paragraph.

Sally creeps me out. I'm flip-flopping about Nerwen because she feels innocent but my theories point against her. Hakon is another I'm considering as my lynch-target toDay. What about you others? I'd like to hear about who you think of voting. Just so as to avoid throwing away my precious vote.

[wilwarin538]

Sally, I voted Kit on Day 1.

Thanks for the much needed clarification Mr. Mod.

[A Little Green]

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

[Nogrod]

Back again... and just on the top of affairs, kudos to you Nienna for reminding us about this (talking of Hakon voting to guard me by saying: "I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil..")
This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)Well I'm totally torn between the same options Nerwen so eloquently phrases:
At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

So a too easy wolf-catch or just something completely different?

I can't pin it down to a few clear arguments right now but I'm actually getting a bit afraid of Pitchie... Looking at Nerwen's last tally of "Shasta-guarders" didn't exactly lessen that feeling. And I haven't forgotten my suspicion on Sally either... even if I do appreciate the tallies! :)

These are not just gut feelings, but are based on some things I have read and thought a second time at some point in the game (sadly I haven't written them all up) - and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others; or you Greenie nicely staying on the background but basically doing the same thing; or Wilwa making such an effort to look the most reasonable person there is - like Nerwen does... And what/whonot... :eek:

I try to express at least some of my fears after I have watched the latest episode of 24 that is beginning in a moment (yes bad TV, repulsive even, but I 'm interested on how the new regime in the US. changes the series background-values - or does it).

[Nogrod]

Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?I think you might have them on top of many agendas... even if they wouldn't be the only ones.

[A Little Green]

Heck. For better or worse, my vote will be

++ Hakon

Among other things, if he is lynched it gives us much information, on for example my Nerwen theories I'm so torn about at the moment.

As for my guard vote, it will be

++ Boro

because he feels innocent and if he really is that he is someone the wolves might want to be rid of. And if he is a wolf I wouldn't grieve for him being taken from their company and counsel for one Night.

[wilwarin538]

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

A part of me wants to vote for Boro, but it doesn't look like anyone else is going for that so I probably won't bother, plus that is more from feeling anyway. Between Hakon and Sally I'm more inclined to go with Hakon toDay. But I was also considering voting McCaber...hmmm....

I need some more time to think through it. But I will probably have to vote within the next hour or so, there's a chance I may not be around for the DL.

edit: x'ed with Greenie.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally, I voted Kit on Day 1.

Thanks for the much needed clarification Mr. Mod.

Aha! I thought so, but for some reason I didn't see it on my list so....yeah.



Gah, the internet is being such a PAIN!!!! I'm going to fix that above post and get back to work, but if I don't reappear please to not be killing me, thanks. I'll do my best.

[satansaloser2005]

Going to analyze Hakon and Cabbie now, interwebs willing.

Either way, I'm pretty sure my guard vote will remain the same:

++Guard Nienna


I think she's innocent and she's someone that I think will be valuable later on, blah blah. Pretty standard reasons, really.


Hope to be back soon.

[McCaber]

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

[Hakon]

I hate having to defend myself, but I will.

Lets start it off with a simple phrase. I am not a wolf. Yes I did run on gut feelings day one because I was busy and I did not have time to read the posts when I got home. I just wanted to make deadline. I think that sometimes gut feelings can be good. Day two I truly thought Legate was a wolf, as did most of us. I was wrong in suspecting that. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking Inziladun was innocent but it seemed like the wolves had set him up. Nerwen, you are too good at starting bandwagons. You make one vote for me and it is enough to get a second vote for me, which is soon going to turn into a bandwagon. Yes today my arguments against people were hasty as some of you pointed out. Truthfully I just wanted to point my suspicions at someone and I did. I was in a hurry so I did not do my best to explain them. I apologize for that.

McCaber, there are no cobblers in this game. I am not a cobbler. I am not trying to appear suspicious. Although that idea is good. McCaber, I think you are under the radar too much. That is my sole reason for being suspicious of you.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well since I may or may not be able to make it on later, I don't want to risk missing the chance to vote so I'm going to do it now

++ Guard Nienna

since she's making sense.

++McCaber

since I find him more suspicious then Hakon, who I'm starting to think may just be misguided.

Might still manage to show up later, but just incase I don't I wish you all good luck!

[Nogrod]

Even without Wilwa's vote... please McCaber, what are you doing?

Just explain a little... what do you think of people? A wolf would do well just mentioning one or two and backing away from every slight suspicion he made. Good Public Relations but not too good if trying to catch the wolves.

[satansaloser2005]

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Says the game may start out rough, but hopes we can limit kill numbers early on.

Then he says that if we protect someone and there's only one kill we shouldn't be overeager and lynch them right away (also known as the Silly Sally plan of now Fail). Says it's too easy for the pack to mess with our minds in this way (which did in fact happen) and that while it could work to our advantage it's a risk.

Nothing really to say here, but I wanted to point the second bit out because it comes into play later.


The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

++wilwa

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

It's Day One. Most of the discussion is silly. Although I think he's referring to Mnemo's proposed plan, which is why he says 'adverse effect'.

Also, the 'they're' looks weird to me. Don't know why, besides the obvious, which is....well, too obvious. Blah. Probably just a silly Cabbie thing.


DAY TWO

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

So before he said that we shouldn't use the protections to determine our lynches, but now he thinks a Legate lynch is acceptable. This just seems too slick for me, especially with the 'but I'll see how the Day goes and then decide which side to take' at the end. I don't like it.

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

So he just sums up what's going on and says he can't make up his mind. Erm, k.

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

Finally seems to make up his mind, and it appears an attempt to cover his earlier statement. Seems to me that he's saying "go ahead and lynch Legate, but I can't be involved because otherwise I'll contradict myself and look bad".

Also, I noted this before, although only briefly. This would be a really good move for a packmate of Dun, and here's why. Legate's pretty much screwed, so voting Dun isn't a dangerous move. Also, if/when Dun was lynched and proven guilty, Cabbie could pull a "I told you so" and look more innocent for making a case for Dun before most other people. So basically this jumps him up on my wolf radar, a lot.

(By extreme extension this leads me to believe the Wilwa and Cabbie will not be in a pack together. He voted to kill her on Day One when it was still possible she'd be lynched, so while it's possible I don't think it's the case.)


DAY THREE

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Erm....okay, nice of you to confess there, friend. Mind telling us who your other two packmates are then? That'd be ever so helpful of you! ;)

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I don't think there's much in this, other than more logicless logic and useless points. (E.g. his commentary on the plan, which has been extinct for like two Days now.) Mentions Nog, but I'm not getting a feeling about it one way or another so meh.


DAY FOUR

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

This....makes no sense to me. They knew Alona was getting modfired so why kill her? There's no reason (especially now) for them to lose the kill just because of this. (I know this has been mentioned somewhere else so I'm going to read through this section of the thread again, but I make this statement from a strategy standpoint, not a 'somehow they weren't allowed a kill' standpoint.) If nothing else it looks plain weird.

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

And again, he's making judgements and then saying "but I could be wrong, so I best not say anything". Could be an attempt to distance himself from a packmate Pitchie/Hakon while not appearing to support them completely, but I'm not sure.


Overall Cabbie seems very off to me, from his voting to just some of the statements he makes. I'm definitely seeing him as a top suspect.

[Boromir88]

and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others~Nogrod
Snappy, yes, because I'm finding out I'm having only about 2 hours a day, total to be on read everything and then post. The way I normally like to do things hasn't been possible.

But, I'm not sure how I have been "sniffing the mood." I've said my suspicions are Shasta and Wilwa, and I said why. Plus currently Nog, Pitch, and Nerwen look innocent. The rest I'm unsure, because I really haven't given much thought towards them. How is announcing suspicions and the ones I feel innocent about "sniffing the mood?" I thought that was the purpose of this thing. :rolleyes:

++wilwa

because I said so...and

++Guard Nilp

also, because I said so.

[satansaloser2005]

Doing Hakon now, but I have to say it's already looking pretty dark for him too.

(Oh, and sorry, Nienna dear. I've not read your Hakon analysis yet because I want to make sure I'm as unbiased as possible.)


Quick vote count (if it doesn't make me look suspicious:eek::rolleyes:)

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp

[Pitchwife]

Hi, I'm back.
Brinn, about my earlier defense - let me just say I was dismayed at my error (not the first in this game) and felt I owed the village some open words. True, there were no accusations at the time, but I could see them coming, and as I knew I would be away for quite a while (for RL reasons) I thought I'd say what I had to say while I had the time. But I won't belabour the point any more.

Hakon - well, I don't know. Wouldn't a wolf-cub have been briefed a little better by his packmates? My impression is more like he's on his own and out in deep water and desperately flailing around. But I'm not sure whether to trust that judgement at the moment.

McCaber, while you're around, I have some questions about this statement of yours from yesterDay:
And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.
1. Why bring up the matter again at all long after The Plan had been rendered void?
2. Don't you think it probable that if Kit had revealed on Day 1, she would have escaped lynching? If not, why? True, we couldn't have tested her veracity on the spot, but don't you think enough of us would have given her the benefit of doubt to ensure her survival that Day.
3. Between the NG and the Ranger, don't you think we could have kept her alive for, let's say, 2-3 Nights at least? If not, why? And even if she'd been killed eventually before she could dream a wolf, would we be any worse off than we are now?
I'm more interested in your reasoning than in the matter itself, which, as I said, has long been void. But that statement just confused me.

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article. Obviously you've realized that yourself, and as you seem to be coming back to true shape lately, I'm much more inclined to trust you (be afraid of me as much as you like - I don't expect otherwise, and I can take it).
There's still the matter of the one kill the Night you were Guarded, of course. I'm not inclined to make a judgement based on that alone, after the Legate desaster, but I still think wilwa's #441 yesterDay had a good point.

(x-ed with Sally #518 ff.)

[Nogrod]

I'm getting through the last two Days now but may throw some individual points to ask of people when I feel I'd like to hear some clarifications - or if I think the matter urgent enough to voice early enough...

Now what say you Pitchie about this? So I'm inclined to think both Nog and Zil rather innocent at the moment, and I'm also inclined to look for the majority of our wolves among

* the supporters of The Plan and
* the Legate bandwagon.It was early Days to be sure, but that's to the point... Were you trying to make people think it that way because you really thought that way yourself or did you try to make us think that way for some other reason?

I mean everyone should have realised at that point that "the plan" would have been good to us and not following it turned out a disaster. We should look at the opposers of the plan with scrutiny, not the proponents of it (well we should look at everyone but with this matter I'm inclined to suspect the opposition as it clearly was something that would have made the wolves take the pain). Yes, people don't always think things through and that's normal but we could try to see who was faking her/his confusion about the real stakes.

Also the Legate bandwagon was totally useless... well almost... but why did you want to think it that way like trying to sway the looks from the Inzil-voters?


Also with Boro I'm a bit uneasy with this kind of throw-aways: Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.
First of all I don't think I never said I was innocent before this post (I think I said it toDay though) not to talk of me requiring you to think of me as one. Well I am innocent (second call), but I can't require you to believe me just by my word or by any dubious standard relating on how the wolves choose to play their game ot not. The problem with this is that you make it look like I have claimed innocense because of that Night's actions which I haven't and thence trying to claim something which basically a wolf would try to claim. But if you were a wolf wishing to see me lynched that would actually be the exact subtle way of trying it out whether others would pick on it.

Also this "be afraid!" or the latter "beware wolves, you've awakened the bear..." - with no consequences ever - look downright rhetorical, not genuine. Sorry.

But I see there have been a host of posts so let me quit for a while to read what has been said meanwhile...

[satansaloser2005]

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.

This is pretty much the best thing ever, by the way. :p


Internet's flaring up again so I'll be back with my Hakon post when I can.

[Nienna]

Since I was mostly done when Sally posted hers... here is just a different perspective and now I shall go read hers.

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Warning us about how the wolves could manipulate the guarded with only sending in one Night kill. This looks as if it could be a wolf with insider knowledge.

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

[lynch vote]++ wilwa[/lynch vote]

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

Seems reasonable.

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

Says he’s willing to lynch Legate today and sort it out later but it will depend on the rest of the Day… even though the day before he warned us of this exact thing.

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

The bolded part is notable… not sure why he didn’t want the Day to be interesting. He seems not sure whether or not to join against Legate.

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

[lynch vote]++ Inziladun[/lynch vote]

This makes a little bit more sense considering how he did warn us of the possible wolf trap for lynching Legate… but earlier in the day it seemed like he was feeling out how everyone would react to Legate before voting him. I don’t know but it seems like he is trying to stay out of the wagon and then voting for wolf. Both of these things could be done by a wolf.

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

It is actually highly possible that one of the non-Legate voters is a wolf because they would know Legate was innocent and want to be able to claim innocence later.

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I’m not really sure why he brought up The Plan again. This was Day Three and it hadn’t been talked about in a while… really random.

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

Even after this analysis I’m still confused by McCaber. He bears close watching though.

[Nogrod]

Pitchie, I do agree with your questions to McCaber, not the least as I still think some of us haven't made those deductions as yet... :rolleyes:

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.Heh, time-deprivation... Hope I can get you all to suspect me in the last one and half hours if that makes you feel more comfy... :)

Anyway, I'm not going to restrain from voicing doubts toDay.

[Nogrod]

Pitchie, could you just tell us why did you think guarding Shasta would be a good idea yesterDay? I mean more than "just for a change"?

[Pitchwife]

Nog, direct answer to your direct question:
1. The Plan
When I first heard our Mayor set forth the special rules about the NG, I more or less had the same idea Mnemo suggested. As we didn't know our roles at that time, I considered how I, in case I was made a wolf, would like to deal with something like The Plan, if it came up. I thought it would be quite plain to see that such a plan, if followed through, would be in the best interest of the village, and arguing against it would be a) difficult and b) likely to cause suspicion. So what should the wolves, according to my reasoning, do? Hardly bring the suggestion up themselves, but support it when it came up, and then find a way to circumvene it.
So, assuming the actual wolves were thinking remotely like I was thinking as a hypothetical wolf, it would make sense to look for them among the supporters of The Plan, wouldn't it? (Not Mnemo herself, of course, but at least some of those who argued for her. And remember, I was among those, so I was actually inviting people to have a close look at me.)
2. The Legwagon / Zil voters
I was about to say the reasoning is all in the post you quoted from, but looking back now I realize there's actually an appalling fault in my reasoning there. Quoting myself:
If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent?
The answer to the question is actually in the sentence before it. If Zil was a wolf (as we now know he was), and one of his packmates voted for him, then Lommy's death (=confirmed innocence) would make that packmate look better for voting with her. How I failed to realize that at the time, I can't tell. If I had, I wouldn't have been quite so confident in my Inzil frame theory.
But the short answer to your question is: yes, in both cases I said what I said because I really thought so myself at the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog's last.

[Nogrod]

To get this done early enough even in a provisional form (subject to changes as I have time to read on), so just a feeling of it right now...

Greenie - I'm just scared... She's too careful and good in this.
Boro - As I've said earlier, I'm a bit in doubt about his kind of soft suspicions which look like probing around but if they are time-issues I could understand them.
Brinn - The enigmatic ever innocent even when a wolf. I suspected her on the first Days and now am torn - the option of Kit being killed because she voted for her "out of the blue" kind of bothers me though... We'd need to cross-index a few things I think... Also I don't believe Brinn honestly believes in Shasta's "psychic powers" so her vote to guard him looks dubious indeed as the wolves would love to guard a non-participator.
Hakon - looks the foulest but I'm not sure if he feels like it. His last apology looked genuine...
McCaber - I could vote him but I'm afraid that an evil McCaber would have been more active...
Nerwen - Looks very good so far even if I suspected her as well on the first Days (and especially the fact that everyone trusted her) - so have I fallen victim to her charms or am I right?
Nessa - Facing modfire so let's skip her.
Nienna - Feels better than foul.
Nilp - Torn with him, really. Makes good points and is very active... well normally (being innocent) he is quite flegmatic, so?
Pitchwife - Very sensible but just because of that suspicious. So on top of things that it hurts sometimes :) But really an innocent we shouldn't lose - and a wolf we should get rid of immediately until further harm is done...
Sally - Has gotten better lately but has also been suspected more lately as well - so that's natural. Her end of the Day actions look really suspicious (just sitting back and relaxing on one Day posting tallies, voting for Shasta-guard at the last moment to tie the guards for the dice-roll yesterDay etc.).
Shasta - Probably innocent as it looks he couldn't care less... Well bad if one joins a game with that attitude but anyway he's in this game and we need to work with that fact.
wilwa - A tough call. Really good - and thence frightening.

[Pitchwife]

Direct answer to Nog about my Shasta Guard vote:
In addition to what I said earlier toDay: OK, maybe he wasn't a very likely wolf target - but then again, you never know; anyway, I felt it was time to use the NG as it was meant to - i.e. to keep alive somebody we feel is innocent, not to test and safeguard people we have second thoughts about (as I had about Nerwen at the time). And unlike you, I like to keep those who haven't said that much around and give them a chance to improve.;)
I like your assessment of me in your last post very much, by the way; now could you please make up your mind?

[Brinniel]

Suspects...

Hakon is either a misguided innocent or a newbie wolf. As to which, it's still a toss-up for me. For that reason I'm not all too eager to be joining this bandwagon against him.

McCaber has been gathering some attention of late, and as I recall from Day 2, he did look a bit furry. When it came to sharing opinions on the whole Legate matter, he seemed very careful and retrained in his words like he didn't want to give too strong of an opinion one way or another.

Sally's behaviour creeped me out a bit on Day 1 and Day 2. But that creepiness has sort of faded, and lately I have been feeling a bit better about her.

I find Pitchwife's posts from the end of the Day a bit suspicious, but I'm still not sure about him.

I still think wilwa's behaviour on Day 2 was quite suspicious and I find it strange that a lot of attention and suspicion on her has been dropped recently. That alone makes me nervous as I remember that is how the wolves won last game.

Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.

[Nogrod]

So what should the wolves, according to my reasoning, do? Hardly bring the suggestion up themselves, but support it when it came up, and then find a way to circumvene it.
So, assuming the actual wolves were thinking remotely like I was thinking as a hypothetical wolf, it would make sense to look for them among the supporters of The Plan, wouldn't it?Well given your premises, yes. But your premises I'm afraid just don't hold...

It feels stupid to argue this stuff again but I'll try to make it short.

Clearly Mnemo's plan was good for the village. Even you admit it in a way in your post there. And the reality has kind of underlined that.

And there was no real danger. The village would have NG'd Kit the first Night and the ranger would have taken the next one - no need to give up names of innocents during the way or the ranger declaring s/he's doing her/his job. And on the next Night vice versa...

A rival claim would have been dealt with double protections until toDay (or yesterDay) and then we would have called for a list from both seer-candidates...

Much better than what we have now - and even if looking at it from the perpective of Day1 above the probabilities otherwise I'd say.

[Nogrod]

And the point of my post was? :o

Well the wolves would have liked to oppose the plan rather than take the risk that the village would have chosen to support it - and Kit had been persuaded...

[Nogrod]

Direct answer to Nog about my Shasta Guard vote:
In addition to what I said earlier toDay: OK, maybe he wasn't a very likely wolf target - but then again, you never know; anyway, I felt it was time to use the NG as it was meant to - i.e. to keep alive somebody we feel is innocent, not to test and safeguard people we have second thoughts about (as I had about Nerwen at the time). And unlike you, I like to keep those who haven't said that much around and give them a chance to improve.;)To keep alive someone you think innocent but who does not play? Do you think the wolves kill the "dead load" during the Nights? So if the "testing" was over, why didn't you try someone who actually plays? I mean even if you are a bit indecisive with those who talk a lot there is chance of reading them as the Days go by. With those who don't play you only have to guess.

Some might say that's a difference of opinion but if you think about it it's a question of good for the village and bad.

I like your assessment of me in your last post very much, by the way; now could you please make up your mind?
Hard to say at the moment... but glad you liked it. It's actually true.

[Pitchwife]

Nog, I never said The Plan was bad. Remember I supported it? Remember I said the same things you're now saying to me to McCaber a few posts ago?
What I'm saying is, The Plan was so good I thought everybody could see it was good, so everybody arguing against it would make themselves suspicious. Hence the wolves - at least some of them - might have found themselves driven to support it, although The Plan itself was bad for them, to make themselves look good. Whether I was right assuming so is another question, but that is what I meant.

EDIT: typos and tense corrected.

[Nogrod]

What I'm saying is, The Plan was so good I thought everybody could see it was good, so everybody arguing against it would make themselves suspicious. Hence the wolves - at least some of them - might have found themselves driven to support it, although The Plan itself was bad for them, to make themselves look good.For some reason many thought it bad... and that suited the wolves more than well! So why not help the suspicion against the plan? You're right in that a wolf might have taken the other side to look good but I think it's much more probable that the majority of the wolves liked to join the opposition - just for their own good as they could also be in the majority at the same time... The question only remains whether they built that opposition themselves as a majority-view or whether the villagers helped them to do that?

But that answer prolly should wait for toMorrow as we have a lynch and a guarding to discuss in half an hour's time...

But why I discussed this was that I thought your evaluation of it being more probable to find a wolf on the opposing-side to the plan I think is dead-wrong.

[Nogrod]

Tally, anyone?

Sally, anyone?

:D

[satansaloser2005]

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

++Legate

Votes on gut, which on a first Day is hardly a crime.

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Really says nothing, other than that he wants to be right.

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

I already commented on this (see my post 277 for reaction) but basically this just sounds horrible. "Legate's going to be lynched, so you all are just ignoring other people who look wolfish?" I really can't explain it other than I already did, but to me it just seems....heck if I know, just wrong.

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

The above quote was Eönwë's answer to the question of weather it would be made clear that it was a ranger save or not.

Also, just stating the obvious again.

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

++Legate

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

After all of this "why don't you look at someone else?" business he votes Legate anyway? This makes the above point look even worse. Also accuses Alona of lurking, which seems very random to me. His point to Pitch is irrelevant because we couldn't guard Legate again anyway, but it still looks a bit weird. If Pitch wanted to guard Legate that would suggest that they aren't wolves together, because a wolf wouldn't want their packmate guarded. (Which is to say that he might bring up a case for a Legate guard but he wouldn't really want one, if that makes sense. Pitch pulling a bluff would make Hakon's post make sense but he wouldn't really want a Legate guard if he was a wolf.) Basically flawed logic, which isn't punishable by death but looks fishy, or rather wolfy, to me.

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

Erm, okay. Cabbie didn't have a reason and Dun was a wolf, so logic dictates....

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Yeah, because the wolves wouldn't have thought of it on their own anyway.

And yeah, there had to be at least one among them, considering only two of the living players didn't vote him. This is, again, logicless logic.

Agree with his point about Nog though, although most of us were.

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Accuses Dun of wolfdom, saying that it's a possible reason for Lommie being Finnished. ;) Repeats what he said before about vote times/positions being important. The problem with his logic is that some ordos may have used the same logic, knowing that they weren't going to change their mind because they were so sure he was guilty.

Then he says that he wants to look at people who voted Dun! Right after saying Dun is probably a wolf! :eek: The inconsistencies, they abound!

More commentary on the one kill a Night thing.

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

"So I know I just said Dun's probably a wolf but don't kill him." Erm, okay? Awk. Freaking. Ward.

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Flips completely re: Pitchie, and decides to guard him instead. Reiterates his plea to not lynch Dun (again, wtmc?) and says that the wolves want us to lynch Noggie or Dun. (To which I reply, heh, right.)

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

Again, despite his earlier accusation that Dun headed the Night kill of Lommie, he urges us not to lynch him, and he seems to be getting pretty desperate.

++Nienna

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Pretty much a throwaway for Nienna. Wow....just, wow.

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

First, his 'case' against me. I already stated that I didn't have time to check votes, and you can hardly expect me to make a lynch vote without reading. And to add more water to your fire if I wanted to save Nerwen from a guard I'd have voted Pitch. Wouldn't that make more sense? (Besides, at that point it didn't matter because Dun was done and the wolves could only have gotten one kill anyway.)

Really, nothing he said in this post made sense, or if it did it had no merit to it. Seems like a lot of backtracking and trying to pin things on other people. (Although I won't completely disregard his claims about Wilwa.)

I hate having to defend myself, but I will.

Lets start it off with a simple phrase. I am not a wolf. Yes I did run on gut feelings day one because I was busy and I did not have time to read the posts when I got home. I just wanted to make deadline. I think that sometimes gut feelings can be good. Day two I truly thought Legate was a wolf, as did most of us. I was wrong in suspecting that. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking Inziladun was innocent but it seemed like the wolves had set him up. Nerwen, you are too good at starting bandwagons. You make one vote for me and it is enough to get a second vote for me, which is soon going to turn into a bandwagon. Yes today my arguments against people were hasty as some of you pointed out. Truthfully I just wanted to point my suspicions at someone and I did. I was in a hurry so I did not do my best to explain them. I apologize for that.

McCaber, there are no cobblers in this game. I am not a cobbler. I am not trying to appear suspicious. Although that idea is good. McCaber, I think you are under the radar too much. That is my sole reason for being suspicious of you.

I'm not even going to bother with this one. Apologizing is a very ordo thing to do but it seems too fake to me.


Hakon is evil in my book. That be all.

[satansaloser2005]

Tally, anyone?

Sally, anyone?

:D

Coming right up, Master Nog! :D

[satansaloser2005]

Hasn't changed since my last vote count, so it was easy. Yay!

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp

[Nienna]

I'm leaning toward voting Hakon or McCaber to lynch... I'm hesitant to jump on a bandwagon but they really are acting suspicious.

Wilwa, Sally, and Nog seem alright to me.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm leaning toward voting Hakon or McCaber to lynch... I'm hesitant to jump on a bandwagon but they really are acting suspicious.

My exact problem. Considering our track record with bandwagons this game (Dun excluded, of course) I'm hesitant. Also, I can't decide which of them is a bigger concern to me. Rubbish.

[Hakon]

Brinn - The enigmatic ever innocent even when a wolf. I suspected her on the first Days and now am torn - the option of Kit being killed because she voted for her "out of the blue" kind of bothers me though... We'd need to cross-index a few things I think... Also I don't believe Brinn honestly believes in Shasta's "psychic powers" so her vote to guard him looks dubious indeed as the wolves would love to guard a non-participator.

Nog, one thing that makes her look innocent is the fact that Inzilawolf voted for her.

Alright it is about twenty minutes to deadline and I have to go now. I will put in both my votes. This is hard for me since it seems everyone is leaning towards lynching me. Although the truth is only some of you are. Sally, you are great at twisting words. Reminds me of my mother. Very bad talent to have.

The people who I am most suspicious of are Nerwen, Pitch and Boro.

Nerwen because she starts these bandwagons and something is just off about her. I know none of you are going to vote her but she might be a wolf.

Pitch, this entire game you have come off as innocent. I have only seen you play the role of a gifted before and you do not come off as innocent. This leads to believe that you are a possibly a wolf. Since it is just too innocent.

For Boro I just think that Eonwe would pick him to be a wolf. That is it.

++Nilp He has had some good ideas. Worth keeping around.

Voting for any of the three people I find suspicious won't get anywhere. So how about I use my vote on Wilwa. She is suspicious just not as much as the above three. And it would not be a waste of a vote.

++Wilwa

[Nogrod]

We've lost Mnemo, Kit the Seer, Legate and Lommy so we probably can't afford losing too many "independent talkers"... The wolves will love to do that for us.

Also if the modfire takes one or two from our ranks in numbers in the next Day the more important that becomes methinks.

Those who talk can also be heard, read and evaluated, even if we disagree on the grounds of that evaluation - but that's what this game is about!

[Nogrod]

Nog, one thing that makes her look innocent is the fact that Inzilawolf voted for her.With no real threat to make her actually lynched... Just what a wolf would love to do.

Nerwen because she starts these bandwagons and something is just off about her. I know none of you are going to vote her but she might be a wolf. I don't think I wish to especially defend Nerwen but it looks like some of us don't know she lives in Australia and that puts some restraints to her timetables with the rest of us. So let's be fair on that.

Funny you think another wagon-starter / early-voter, namely Nilp, you think innocent enough to guard the coming Night...

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa
Hakon-->Wilwa (2)

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp
Hakon-->Nilp (2)



I think it's very strange how Hakon seems to follow people's votes. Two Days now he's followed Dun (his guard votes anyway) and now he's following Boro's to the letter. Just something interesting.

[satansaloser2005]

With no real threat to make her actually lynched... Just what a wolf would love to do.

Exactly.

I don't think I wish to especially defend Nerwen but it looks like some of us don't know she lives in Australia and that puts some restraints to her timetables with the rest of us. So let's be fair on that.

Thanks for pointing that out. I meant to mention earlier that just because people vote early doesn't mean they're evil; it may be time zones at work.

[Nogrod]

I think it's very strange how Hakon seems to follow people's votes. Two Days now he's followed Dun (his guard votes anyway) and now he's following Boro's to the letter. Just something interesting.Fair point.

Another thing: why did he pick just this from all the other suspicions I had made?
Nog, one thing that makes her look innocent is the fact that Inzilawolf voted for her.
I'm not sure if a possible wolfmate-Brinn actually would approve of this... :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

Obviously I prefer Hakon or McCobbler to Wilwa. I'm almost tempted to go for Cabbie toDay and leave Hakon for later, but Hakon seems darker to me. Bah! I can't make up my mind! :eek:


EDIT: x'd with Nog

[Nogrod]

I meant to mention earlier that just because people vote early doesn't mean they're evil; it may be time zones at work.And it doesn't mean they're good... :p

[Brinniel]

Voting for the one who makes me most uneasy of the those I mentioned in my last post:

++wilwa

We can guard someone a second time, just not consecutively right? I'm considering voting Nogrod since he seems innocent to me and quite helpful to the village.

[Nienna]

I do not like Hakon's vote for Wilwa and I actually don't know where this suspicion is coming from. I'd rather see Hakon lynched.

++ Hakon

and

++Guard Sally

because she is making a whole lot of sense.

Edit: x-ed with Brinn... bah. I don't know if I like that vote for Wilwa either...

[Eönwë]

We can guard someone a second time, just not consecutively right?

Yes

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa
Hakon-->Wilwa (2)
Brinn-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Hakon (3)

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp
Hakon-->Nilp (2)
Nienna-->Sally (awwww, thanks!)

[Nogrod]

Okay, looking at the vote-getters I'd like to see Wilwa still alive as she has been a most productive person - and go Days - it would be harder for her to look good all the time.

What Hakon just said - and his relation to Brinn might actually open up some new vistas of understanding... even if I do suspect McCaber as well. But maybe McCaber is just too lazy to be a wolf?

[satansaloser2005]

Voting for the one who makes me most uneasy of the those I mentioned in my last post:

++wilwa

We can guard someone a second time, just not consecutively right? I'm considering voting Nogrod since he seems innocent to me and quite helpful to the village.

So right after Facebook gets a dislike button we need one for here too. Just sayin'.

[Nogrod]

++ Hakon

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, looking at the vote-getters I'd like to see Wilwa still alive as she has been a most productive person - and go Days - it would be harder for her to look good all the time.

What Hakon just said - and his relation to Brinn might actually open up some new vistas of understanding... even if I do suspect McCaber as well. But maybe McCaber is just too lazy to be a wolf?

Nog, here's our problem. I wouldn't mind being rid of McCaber either, but I think our options for toDay just became Wilwa and Hakon, thanks to Miss Brinn. So....yeah.

++Hakon


EDIT: x'd with Nog, who obviously agree. Count is now Hakon 5, Wilwa 3

[Brinniel]

Why are you so sure of wilwa's innocence, Sally?

[Pitchwife]

Time to vote.
I may regret it (yet again), but somehow I don't feel Hakon is really evil, and after he and I kinda made the same mistake yesterDay, I won't turn on him now.
I'd very much like to abstain toDay, looking back at my stupid votes up to now, but I want to give the rest of the village a vote you can draw conclusions from tomorrow. So:
++McCaber
For being just that bit too elusive, illogical and un-pin-down-able to make me comfortable about him. I thought good of him earlier for his warning against the possibility of the wolves using the NG for a frame (especially after the Legate desaster), but actually, a wolf could just as well have made that point in order to draw suspicion from a Guarded packmate. Let's find out.
And
++Guard Nerwen
Obviously a good choice, or do I have to explain more?

EDIT: x-ed with lots, don't know how many right now
EDIT: coding fixed

[satansaloser2005]

Why are you so sure of wilwa's innocence, Sally?

Erm, when did I say I was?



EDIT: x'd with Pitchie, who needs to fix his coding

[Brinniel]

Guarding:

++Nogrod

[Eönwë]

So right after Facebook gets a dislike button we need one for here too.

We haven't even got a like button yet.

[Nogrod]

And I'm more happy with keeping Nienna around rather than Nilp whom I'm not so easy with.

++ guard Nienna


EDIT: softened the tone a bit with a few added words: I was in a hurry and it looked like I wished nothing but bad to Nilp which is not true... Sorry about the confusion.

[Brinniel]

Why do you want to save her then?

[Eönwë]

Pitchwife, format!

[satansaloser2005]

Why do you want to save her then?

I don't. I said I wanted Hakon dead. Big difference, and don't try to turn it around.

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Shasta will be modfired in the Night.

[Eönwë]

Even though another villager had been lost in the night, the people of Upper Downsbury were still happy after killing their first wolf, as this meant that they would only have to suffer one kill per night.

The villagers tried to recall if Inziladun had done anything to implicate anyone else, but there was very little to go on. He had been a very careful wolf.

Today it was decided that there would be a stoning. Many names were thrown about, but it soon became clear that Hakon would be the next to die at the hands of the village.

Someone thought it would be a clever idea to drown Hakon in his own beer.

"There will be plenty of time for such deeds. There are many more days ahead of us." said Eönwë. At this, Hakon looked horrified. "The village wanted a stoning, and they shall one."

As Hakon was grabbed by Sally and Nienna and dragged towards the outskirts of the village, he shouted, "Kill Wilwarin instead! She's the evil one."

"How do we know that?" said Nogrod. "Why should we trust you?"

And so everyone ignored his protests.

Nerwen cast the first stone. It missed Hakon, but acted as an invitation, and soon the rest of the village started picking up stones and throwing them at him.

They started with smaller stones at first, but soon they got larger and heavier, and started doing more damage.

Eventually, a lifeless Hakon fell to the floor, bruised all over.

The villagers watched expectantly at his body, willing it to change, but nothing happened. They had once again killed a fellow innocent villager. Their spirits lowered, and a new wave of desperation appeared among the members of the village.

And so, for the fifth night, the Night Guard took up their places, this time outside Nienna's house, for the night.

Eönwë had really hoped that they would start catching more wolves, but seemed to him that though the wolves would only kill one of them each night, it would still be a struggle for mastership of the village.


Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent

[Eönwë]

They had killed another on their side that day, and as the villagers walked home in silence, they were all afraid that they would be next.

Shasta had been part of the action of the first day, but after the pan that he had supported had not been approved by the village, he started getting anxious. And his fears were proven later that day, when their seer died. The next day he spoke a little, and eventually decided that he had had too much of their daily discussions and left.

He also fell into despair, like Alona. He would not talk to anyone, and would only go out of his house at night. This night, he ran around the village wildly, shouting. "Run away! The wolves are coming! Run away!" By this time most of the village had assumed that he had gone mad, Shasta knew that he was right in fearing the Werewolves.

But as he ran, his foot landed in the gap of a missing cobblestone, and he fell over, hitting he head. Everything went black.

When Shasta woke up, he saw three dark figures leaning over him, their rank breath stinging his nostrils. He took out a small bottle from one of his inner pockets and downed the entire contents. "Haha." he chuckled. "Now you will not get the pleasure of killing me." He started laughing uncontrollably, then his face contorted into an expression of pain. He took a last, gasping breath, and was dead.

--

The wolves walked on, with their bloodstained teeth glinting in the moonlight.

"You know, they're really not doing their side a favour killing themselves like that," said one of the beasts.

"Yeah, you're right, they're just doing our job for us."

They reached the house of Nerwen. She was inside, asleep, but woke up as soon as they broke down the front door. She sat bolt upright in her bed, looking around.

They entered her room. One wolf stepped forwards. "And now you shall taste death," said the wolf.

"Stop!" said a second one. "I don't want to do this any more. It's getting boring." The other two wolves looked at the speaker, and Nerwen looked hopeful. "I mean, isn't there some other way? Each day we just kill and eat one of them, How about a new method?" Nerwen's sudden hope melted away as quickly as it had sprung up.

"What would you suggest?" asked the third wolf.

"I don't know," said the second wolf. "Boil 'em, mash 'em, stick 'em in a stew? They're taking the hob-" The wolf paused as the other two looked at him or her (there was no way of telling, as they all resembled the Great Wolf) fiercely. "I'm sorry," the second wolf said. "I just got a little carried away there."

"That's not actually a bad idea," said the first wolf.

"Let's do it!" said the third wolf.

--

It was morning, and the villagers gathered at the village square. But there was something there that had not been there yesterday.

There was a large (extremely large, in fact) cauldron in the centre of the village square, with the words "NERWEN STEW" carved upon it.

Most of villagers dared not look into it, but those that did jumped back with a yelp, and a sickened look in their eyes. When Eönwë came to address the village that morning, he saw the villagers crowding around something, talking loudly and some wailing, and went to see what all the fuss was about.

He looked inside, and saw the remains of a few strips of wet cloth. That was all that remained of Nerwen. Even her bones had been feasted upon, it was assumed. The villagers looked all around the village for any other remains, but there were none, and so they concluded that their assumptions were correct.

So the wolves have become more crafty, thought Eönwë. He addressed the villagers, the people of Upper Downsbury. "If we do not catch the wolves, this is what they will do to each and every one of us, and worse if they get the chance, until all but them are dead. We must look harder. We cannot afford to lose many more."

And so the discussions began.



Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary - Innocent (modfired)
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel - Innocent

Day 5 has begun. Post if ye dare.

[wilwarin538]

hmm, Hakon surprised me. I mean I know that he's still fairly new at this, but he was participating so much more then usual it seemed logical that he must of had people helping him out. Uh, that sucks. Nerwen too, I really trusted her (probably why she was chosen).

So school starts for me tomorrow and my first day is crazy because I work after school, so I'm definetely not going to be around anywhere near the DL. I'll be around for the next few hours on and off (even though there usually isn't alot of discussion then) and then maybe for like 20 minutes tomorrow morning, which is when I'll vote. So not much from me toDay. Just like if I'm still alive for Day 6 it will be similar. Day 7 will be awesome from me though, if you guys let me last that long.

[Nienna]

I wonder why Nerwen and not Nog or Nilp? Nerwen was trusted by some but recently it seemed as if more people trusted Nog and Nilp. Thoughts?

[wilwarin538]

I wonder why Nerwen and not Nog or Nilp? Nerwen was trusted by some but recently it seemed as if more people trusted Nog and Nilp. Thoughts?

Well because of what happened on Day 3 I think Nog still has a higher chance of getting lynched, yeah we don't really suspect him too much, but there was only one kill the night he was guarded, and no way for us to know whether it was a bluff or not. Nilp, I don't know, I think Nerwen contributed a tad more then him, so that could be why.

Gonna go check out McCaber's posts, I seem to remember Sally or someone collecting them all together.

Oh, and I'm officially calling Sally....Tally Sally, :p, or may just Stally...

[wilwarin538]

So I looked over the posts that Stally and Nienna did about McCaber and took just afew of the quotes and added some of my own comments.

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

Kinda like "I'm not posting til you all do", way to leave us all the work. What he says in the bolded part really goes against what he says here later in the Day:

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance

In that same post he votes for Inzil, a known wolf, when there is no chance of him getting lynched, which really helps out what he says here on Day 3:

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Seems to really be trying to make himself look good. And the part about him and Nilp seems weird, if he's guilty I doubt Nilp is.

Then later on he quite randomly says this:

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

Hmm, too bad that since our Ranger is still alive our Seer probably would have been too right now, which could have potentially given us five of her dreams. Not even just that though (since that's just my personal oppinion), but like why is he bringing this up 2 days later when it has absolutely no significance to anything?? Especially when practically everyone thought it was a bad idea and that seemed to have already been established. Considering how little he contributed this just was really unneeded.

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

This just doesn't make sense to me, I mean I suppose he could have just misunderstood the rules, like I did, but it was such a small contribution and then nothing from him for a while until this:

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

Rather simple indeed, and I don't completely understand where he stands regarding Pitch, does he find him suspicious or no??

So I am still very wary of McCaber, and I can see myself voting for him once again.

[Boromir88]

11 people left, 3 are wolves and I would be the rest of my savings that wilwa is one of them.

[wilwarin538]

11 people left, 3 are wolves and I would be the rest of my savings that wilwa is one of them.

And I can assure you that is one bet you've totally lost.
I'm not going to really focus on you toDay Boro, because I don't have a lot of time (like 20 minutes left now and then maybe another 20 tomorrow), and since my suspicion of you is based on just a few little things here and there that you've said that I really don't like, I won't vote you just for that. It'd be nice if you didn't vote me just for that either, you won't appreciate that outcome. I suggest you take a much closer look at my posts and maybe try to make an actual case against me and then this suspicion you have of me might not make me feel so uneasy.

I'm trying to figure out right now just how much time I'll actually have tomorrow, cause I'm starting to think I may not be able to make it on at all, first days at my school are always subject to either be way shorter then expected, or way longer, so it's tough to really know. I may end up having to vote tonight, and then if I do manage to come on tomorrow and want to change my vote we're all aloud one retraction in the game, right? But I doubt I'll change my mind really.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well that might be all from me for toDay since I'm exhausted and have school in the morning. Hopefully it's not the last positive contribution I have to offer (even if you all decide to lynch me toDay).

So here we go:

++McCaber

and

++Guard Greenie

Hope to be able to stop in tomorrow, if not then good luck to you all!

[Brinniel]

Seven hours into the Day and this is all the posts we have?

About the end of yesterDay, Sally, I still don't understand why you dislike my vote for wilwa so much. I felt practically attacked for a vote I thought perfectly reasonable; I don't see what's wrong in voting for the one you suspect the most. So if you didn't want to save wilwa why were you so upset with me voting her? Did you want me to vote Hakon or McCaber instead? I was still uncertain about Hakon and uncomfortable with that bandwagon against him, and I didn't suspect McCaber as much. So why should I have voted them over wilwa?

It's late so I really don't have time for much posting tonight, but I'll be around when I get up tomorrow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Right. So. Since my analysis from the previous DAY still seems to be relevant toDAY, I shall post it here.

One of my best clues for catching Werewolves is the intention behind the vote. Not the given one, but what he actually wishes to accomplish with his vote, which is determined by the recipient, time it was cast, whether it created a tie or broke one, etc. A Werewolf would not put his fellow at unnecessary risk by casting a vote for him when there's a chance that he would be lynched as a result, and there is also a chance that an innocent can be lynched. That being said, it is a pity that Inziladun has participated in two fatal bandwaggons, where it has indeed been proven that the recipients of his votes are innocent, albeit dead ones. However it is to be noted that on DAY 1 he cast a vote for Boro to be Night Guarded, where there was still a chance that Boro might end up 'winning'. (Facts: Inziladun voted almost 3 hours before the deadline, putting Boro in solo second with 2 votes, behind Legate with 3. There were still 12 votes left to be cast.) Had Boro been Night Guarded, and there had been one kill the next NIGHT, would there have been any doubt as to Boro's fate?

Therefore, Boromir88 is 99% innocent to me. Only the Seer can correct me now, and she, unfortunately, is already dead.

On DAY 2 Inziladun cast a vote for Nogrod to be Night Guarded. He was at the end of a bandwaggon (he was 6th to vote), and it was nearly at the end of the DAY (5 minutes before the deadline). Now, the Werewolves do not know for certain what our reaction to a second one-kill NIGHT would have been, despite already having poisoned that well with Legate's body. Therefore having a fellow Night Guarded is still a risky proposition. However the vote's placement still allows for a possible Wolf-on-Wolf. Had Nogrod been lynched the next DAY, and had he turned out to be a Werewolf, then Inziladun would have looked good.

I have no conclusion on Nogrod's innocence or guilt based on Inziladun's vote, and will have to resort to other methods.

Brinniel was the only one to receive Inziladun's vote and survive. Take note that there were not votes for Brinn then, indeed hardly any suspicion. So why? Despite the two votes against him there were no indication that the bandwaggon would have been successful; therefore it would have been better to have voted for someone with suspicion. I have not yet analysed Brinn's voting/posting, something I hope to rectify later, so my only sign so far points against her.

Up-to-date analysis to follow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Um, well, there are some people who seem to be blocked out my radar. Isabellkya was one, until recently. Another one is Greenie, all apologies to her. Good thing she has but a few posts, making this a quick analysis. Notes:

DAY 1: (36 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609447&postcount=36)) Disagreed with the Plan.
(95 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609529&postcount=95), 120 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609564&postcount=120), 138 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609592&postcount=138)) Seemed to have homed in on Nogrod.
DAY 2: (218 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609737&postcount=218)) Logical conclusion to the Legate question.
(290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609834&postcount=290)) Voted for Nogrod to be Night Guarded.
DAY 3: (411 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610028&postcount=411)) Posted a list with a lot of unknowns (including Inziladun).
(436 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610061&postcount=436)) Voted for Sally when it was almost certainly impossible that she would be lynched. (The same, however, could have been said of me on DAY 2.)
DAY 4: (482 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610185&postcount=482)) Posted a new list, flipflopping on Hakon's innocence and moving Nogrod from Creepy to Unknown.

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?

Cos humans are only human.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

McCaber has less posts than most of the dead (non-modfired) villagers. :eek:

DAY 1: (111 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609554&postcount=111)) Described the possibility of a bluff with a Night-Guarded innocent and a one-kill NIGHT with startling prescience.
(141 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609595&postcount=141)) Voted for wilwa for 'silly discussion on the previous page.' (wilwa had no posts on the previous page, and her posts on the page before that is regarding the details and possible problems of the Plan, hardly silly discussion in my opinion. Take note that this was also the DAY Mnemo voted for wilwa due to her 'crack theory.')
(null) Did not vote for anyone to be Night Guarded. (As did I, but only because I do not wish to spoil my beautiful self-vote. :D )
DAY 2: (198 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609699&postcount=198)) 'We have time for a Legate lynch toDay.' But observe his vote later that DAY.
(305 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609850&postcount=305)) Summarised a DAY 'more interesting than I had originally wanted.'
(319 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609866&postcount=319)) Guard vote for Nogrod, vanilla reasons. Lynch vote for Inziladun, despite his comments about a 'Legate lynch earlier.'
DAY 3: (368 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609967&postcount=368)) 'Told you so' statement. Made a roundabout declaration of innocence by stating that all four Wolves must have been in the Legate bandwaggon.
(435 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610059&postcount=435)) Believed Nogrod to be innocent. Commented on the Werewolves possible thought processes. (Him speaking about submarines as possible Werewolves, when it can be said that he is, in fact, one, points to intellectual honesty. Or a moment of boldness.) Commented on the long-dead Plan.
DAY 4: (514 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610226&postcount=514)) Comments on Hakon and Pitchwife. Created distance with the Hakon bandwaggon again.
(null) No vote.

The most striking point against McCaber is his DAY 2 actions. We have his changing intentions regarding Legate, first saying that we have time to lynch him, and then when it seemed that his vote was no longer needed to lynch him, voted for someone else (a fellow Werewolf). To look good when saying 'I told you so'? To cover himself in case Inziladun gets lynched (which did happen eventually)? Lacking more concrete suspects, and since I might have no time to go back and post it--also, no time to read his rebuttal of my suspicions :( --I shall cast my vote for him. As in now:

++McCaber

and

++Boromir88.

Analyse the data yourself. You'll believe me when I say he's innocent.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Analysis of the others with more posts will have to come tomorrow, provided you or I am still alive by then.

[A Little Green]

I feel stupid. :(

And lost. Two of my three main suspects (Hakon yesterDay and Nerwen last Night) turned out to be innocent. Which not only makes me seriously doubt my own judgement but also leaves me in a position where I suspect one person (Sally) and have no idea of or don't suspect the rest when there should be three werewolves left... Seems like I have to look at the game afresh and see if there is something I have missed.

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?Firstly, about Nogrod. It seems you don't take into account the ever-changing nature of Nogrod's playing in this game. On Days 1 and 2 he was just over-aggressive and intolerant of differing opinions which made me suspect him quite a lot. Then, later, he ceased to behave that suspiciously. So what should I do? Carry on pushing a suspicion I'm no longer sure of (or even almost sure of) just for the sake of continuity? :rolleyes:

Secondly, about avoiding attention - that's not my fault, is it? I'm contributing as much as I can, more than many, and if people don't pay attention to me then that's hardly something I can affect other than by screaming "Heeeeeeeeeeey I'm a wolf!" or something like that.


EDIT: x-ed with Nilp x2

[A Little Green]

There seems to be a lot of suspicion of McCaber around. Admittedly, those analyses people write of him make him look pretty bad. I'm only worried about whether it's too easy once again, a bit like what happened with Hakon.

[Nienna]

There seems to be a lot of suspicion of McCaber around. Admittedly, those analyses people write of him make him look pretty bad. I'm only worried about whether it's too easy once again, a bit like what happened with Hakon.

I'm thinking the same thing. I think more analysis has to be done on the players who haven't come under any scrutiny. I have to go out now but I'll be back later to help with that.

If McCaber does end up being the most suspicious then we should lynch him but there are three wolves so we need to root out the others as well.

[Nogrod]

Well I must join those who were surprised with Hakon not being a wolf...

BUt just few things for starters.

First of all what should we make of the following?

THe last guard-vote tally was given by Stally at 5 minutes before the DL and it stood like this (leaders at the moment bolded by me): Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp
Hakon-->Nilp (2)
Nienna-->Sally (awwww, thanks!)

After that, at
.59 Pitchwife voted to guard Nerwen (who died during the Night)
.59 Brinn voted to guard me
.00 I voted to guard Nienna (because I thought her more safe to us than Nilp and had a chance to try and make sure she got protected)

Now you might already see where I'm getting at...

If you ask me both Pitchie's and Brinn's guard-votes look odd - and not in a good way. At the last minute they both threw in new candidates even if it was quite clear we had to choose between Nienna and Nilp.

But what does it then mean? I don't know.

I could see a wolf-Brinn throwing that kind of "feel good / look good" guard-vote to me and later when I'm dead she could say she trusted me as much as to protect me earlier.

I could as well - or even better - see a wolf-Pitchie to vote to guard Nerwen with the: "Obviously a good choice, or do I have to explain more?" and then killing her during the Night. That would be classical indeed but still possible.

I'm not too confident both of these cases hold but I'd be surprised if they both were wrong. But they both show a kind of lack of interest of who gets protected which I always find lupine.


On the subject of McCaber then.

I find it especially suspicious that he said we should lynch Legate (we can afford it), then backs off from it avoiding the bandwagon - and then emerges as one keeping the moral highground not being one of the lynchers. Managing to stay away from Hakonwagon - and not only staying away but claiming it openly of not liking it, would fit a wishing-to-look-good wolf's profile pretty well. The pre-explanation of the wolf-tactics on Day1 looks interesting as well as he hasn't otherwise made such good points about the general tactics or possibilities...

So there seems to be reasons to suspect him and maybe even to lynch him. The thing I don't like here is that were he a wolf he might be a bit more vocal and involved. But I'm not sure.

Does anyone remember who was that one who went it all through being a real submarine and won the whole thing? Was it McCaber or was it someone else? Xyzzy perhaps?



FYI: Greenie & Lommy are staying over at my place today so Greenie & me will not be flood-posting toDay...

[Nienna]

Ok kids really? I've already walked to an interview, had the interview, spent much more time and money in a bookstore, walked back, and made this analysis of Brinn. Where is everyone??

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time. :o

Thinks seer-reveal could be awesome but it is just too early for that. Will probably random vote.

Must really go now.

Legate so far seems the most sensible and reasonable and innocentish, so I'll pick him to guard:

++Legate

As for a lynch vote...much more difficult. No one stands out as suspicious to me just now so it'll have to be complete random toDay. A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

[lynch vote]++McCaber[/lynch vote]

Hopefully my participation will be better toMorrow. At least deadline will be a bit better in my new time zone..

Guards Legate because she thinks he is innocentish unlike most others who guarded him because they vaguely suspected him.

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? :rolleyes: Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

Reasonable about the Legate situation, thinks the Kit wagon needs to be looked at.

Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon:

Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes.

Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote.

Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me.

Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious.

wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence.

Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious:

Sally
Inziladun
Pitchwife
Lommy
wilwa
Nerwen
Boromir

This analysis of the Kit voters looks good. The one wolf we know was near the top of the suspicious list.

Sorry, I missed that post...which is easy to do when you have to catch up on two and half pages from the previous Day. So you listed a bunch of scenarios for why she voted to guard Hakon if she's a wolf. But if you were so suspicious of her almost two hours before deadline, why wait until exactly deadline to vote her? I understand wanting to wait a little before immediately voting the first suspicious person, but waiting until it's almost past deadline is certainly pushing it.

And why so many tally posts? Yes, they look helpful, but you posted an awful lot of them and really we don't need a new tally every time someone votes. I think your time could've been better spent looking at other players.

Thinks Sally is posting too many tallies. That seems to have been said a lot…

You asked who I'm voting for, Legate? Well, you'll hate to hear it, but I'll be voting you. You've made your arguments plenty, and while these arguments are well written, they don't convince me. Yeah there is the possibly of being framed, but it still seems more sensible for the wolves to make as many kills possible while they still can. Anyway, I think you're death will reveal a lot. If we lynch you and confirm you're a wolf, then we can toMorrow analyse posts to figure out who your fellows are. Not to mention, it'll prevent any double kills from ever happening. And if you so happen to be innocent as you claim, we can look back at toDay and see the reactions and attitudes of different players to help us figure out which of them are the wolves.

And I do have to go now and won't be back, so:

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

Note: There's only an hour left, so let's not spend the rest of the Day discussing Legate. The wolves want us distracted, so I suggest we don't let ourselves get distracted and focus the attention elsewhere at other players who could be wolves too.

I'll guard:

++Shasta

He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.

Votes Legate like most people. Guards Shasta because his few posts were rather innocent and he is a good person in general to trust. Notes that the village should start looking at other people so that we won’t be distracted which is what the wolves would want.

Hmm...I think the best thing to do now is to look back at everyone yesterDay. We obviously can't make much judgment on the votes themselves, but picking up some comments and behaviours players had towards Legate's guilt could help give us some clues to which of them are the wolves. That's something I'd like to do, but I don't have time now, so it must wait.

The one-kill tactic isn't the smartest plan since it does give us more opportunities to lynch, but it still leaves us with uncertainty. We can't know for sure whether the wolves chose one kill or if Nogrod is actually guilty. We obviously don't want to repeat our mistake from yesterDay, but at the same time, we can't just disregard him. We need to lynch based on suspicious behaviour and not just from the results of the Night Guard. That's how it should be.

Btw, I'm not sure how active I'll be toDay since I am in the process of finding furniture for my bedroom.

Thinks that the wolves might not have been smart not killing two people when they had the chance but now we are unsure of the people who have been guarded. She recommends using normal means of finding suspicion and to not rely on the NG.

One thing I realised about this one-kill thing. Not only do the wolves prevent known innocents, but they are forcing us to change our strategy. If the wolves had done two kills, we would probably continue the strategy of guarding those who are suspicious to figure out their role. That means if those we suspect and choose to guard turn out innocent, the wolves lose potential lynch targets. Once those suspicious innocents are cleared, the wolves become much easier targets, especially if they are acting suspicious. But now since we can't know innocents, that strategy cannot work. So perhaps because a wolf (or more) was considered suspicious they decided to do the one-kill so that suspicious innocents who could be lynched would not be guarded and then cleared.

I should look back and see which players were attracting some suspicion in the previous Days. Right now, only wilwa and Inzil come to mind.

Good point about the wolves’ strategy. This could be insider information but it just feels like a solid theory.

Just some highlights from yesterDay...


First post of the Day. She seems a bit careful, not wanting to go completely one way or another. Perhaps waiting to see the others' reactions before taking a side.


Is the first to seem slightly certain of Legate's guilt.


Interesting catch, though it doesn't necessarily point to McCaber's guilt. His comment could've just given the wolves the idea.


I believe was the first to come up with the theory that one or the other was a wolf. Many others continued to state that theory as the Day went on.


Is the first to vote and vote for Inzil. Not sure what to think of that.


Pointing out Legate's comment about being guarded.


Seems certain of his guilt and very eager to lynch him. But is that eagerness because she really did think we were going to nab a wolf or was she a wolf eager to lynch an innocent?


The way she says this almost sounds like she's expecting him to end up innocent.


Legate pointed this out as a slip, though I'm not sure it is. It's just worded a bit strange, I think.


Interesting comment. But has he done that yet? I can't remember.


Comments on the situation, but seems to restrain from giving his own opinion on the matter.


It is strange she shares a moment of doubt not long after the theory that either she or Legate is a wolf is discussed.





Interesting. These votes look particularly bad from Inzil and Hakon. Very bandwagonish.

Good summary post.

Where did this come from? Inzil, you seem to have this habit of latching onto other people's opinions.

Wolf-on-wolf? It doesn’t seem likely.

Thoughts at this time...

Suspicious:
Inzil
wilwa
Sally

Keeping a close eye on:
McCaber
Nienna

Under the radar (and should be better looked at toMorrow):
Greenie
Boromir
Nessa
Pitchwife

Not sure:
Nilp
Hakon
Nogrod

Leaning Innocent:
Shasta
Nerwen

I left out alona since it looks like she will be modfired.

A lot of this is really based on yesterDay and before. I haven't had a chance yet to really look closely at toDay's posts and unfortunately, I won't have time to do so since I must go soon.

EDIT: Three posts in a row? Where did everyone go?

Wolf as her top suspect and innocents in her innocent category… she seems to be doing pretty well.

How strange it is that two people just voted to guard both players I find innocent. A coincidence?

Well, I'm still voting for one of them anyway. Since Nerwen has been more useful to this village compared to Shasta who's hardly posted, I'll choose to keep her around toNight.

++Nerwen

Now who do lynch? I'm quite suspicious about Inzil too, but I'm a bit wary of this massive bandwagon against him. Has anyone else received votes? Oh yeah, me. :rolleyes:

wilwa looks pretty bad too, but I wonder if she would act in such an obvious manner as a wolf. Hmm..

Sally still looks suspicious, but I don't think enough to vote her.

Doesn’t really want to join a bandwagon but is still suspicious of Zil.

Bandwagon or no, his behaviour is still the most suspicious to me.

[lynch vote++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

And hopefully this bandwagon won't result in the same disaster as yesterDay.

Votes Zil. She was the last vote for him. At this time it looked pretty sure that he would be lynched but there was still enough people and time left for her to be able to start a different bandwagon.

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

She doesn’t really think that Hakon is a wolf. There is a chance but it doesn’t seem likely. Doesn’t like Pitchwife’s opening defense post.

Suspects...

Hakon is either a misguided innocent or a newbie wolf. As to which, it's still a toss-up for me. For that reason I'm not all too eager to be joining this bandwagon against him.

McCaber has been gathering some attention of late, and as I recall from Day 2, he did look a bit furry. When it came to sharing opinions on the whole Legate matter, he seemed very careful and retrained in his words like he didn't want to give too strong of an opinion one way or another.

Sally's behaviour creeped me out a bit on Day 1 and Day 2. But that creepiness has sort of faded, and lately I have been feeling a bit better about her.

I find Pitchwife's posts from the end of the Day a bit suspicious, but I'm still not sure about him.

I still think wilwa's behaviour on Day 2 was quite suspicious and I find it strange that a lot of attention and suspicion on her has been dropped recently. That alone makes me nervous as I remember that is how the wolves won last game.

Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.

Her suspects… pretty straight forward. Makes a good point about Wilwa suspicion and the lack of Boro.

Voting for the one who makes me most uneasy of the those I mentioned in my last post:

[lynch vote]++wilwa[/lynch vote]

We can guard someone a second time, just not consecutively right? I'm considering voting Nogrod since he seems innocent to me and quite helpful to the village.

Why are you so sure of wilwa's innocence, Sally?

Guarding:

++Nogrod

Why do you want to save her then?

The thing with Sally at the end of the day seems a little weird… but maybe it was just because I understood that Sally thought Hakon more suspicious than Wilwa not necessarily that she was sure of Wilwa’s innocence.

On the whole I’m leaning toward Brinn’s innocence. Her posts seem helpful and straight forward. She is having suspicions of people who do look suspicious (and in one case was a wolf). She could easily have jumped on the Hakon-wagon if she was a wolf but decided to vote for someone else. I would love to hear her suspicions of Wilwa because I can’t wrap my head around her.

Edit: x-ed with Nog. YAY!!

[A Little Green]

FYI: Greenie & Lommy are staying over at my place today so Greenie & me will not be flood-posting toDay...Yes because that's exactly what I usually do. :D But really, toDay makes me feel almost like a flood-poster! It's been seven and a half hours since I last posted and I return to find - three posts? I mean, really guys, what's this?

I have little new to say, since I don't think I'll have the time for in-depth analysis toDay. Nienna looks good to me, she speaks good sense and seems very genuine.

I could see a wolf-Brinn throwing that kind of "feel good / look good" guard-vote to me and later when I'm dead she could say she trusted me as much as to protect me earlier.I'm not sure what you mean by this. Like, wolf-Brinn is thinking that trusting an innocent will be read by the village as a sign of innocence? :confused: I see no connection between trusting an innocent and being one. I feel I'm missing something.

[Nogrod]

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Like, wolf-Brinn is thinking that trusting an innocent will be read by the village as a sign of innocence? :confused:Not so "black-and-whitely"... It's just one of those little things that may make a difference piled together with other small things in an insecure situation where someone is facing a choice...

But anyway after reading Nienna's analysis I actually feel better about Brinn - there were so many things I had forgotten or didn't just actively remember. And of the two I felt Pitchie's being the more suspicious one as it would be such a classic.

Interestingly I'm also worried about Wilwa, Nilp and Nienna as they are soo active I've probably never seen them being before. I mean it's good and great as such but... Well they deserve their win if they are the trio while we others seem quite half-hearted in our efforts.


On another issue: have I kind of missed it or have we heard anything about those people who decided to guard Shasta (Nienna, Pitch, Sally)? I still find that choice the odd one and against our best interests.

It's interesting to find Pitchie from that list as well. I mean after his strong defence of Inzil and very apologetic opening yesterDay - and now suggesting Nerwen to guard and her getting killed.

Either the wolves are making all their tactical-choices solely with framing Pitchie in mind or...

[A Little Green]

Interestingly I'm also worried about Wilwa, Nilp and Nienna as they are soo active I've probably never seen them being before. I mean it's good and great as such but...Haha, this coming from the guy who's always going on about how everyone must be active and post a lot.. :D
On another issue: have I kind of missed it or have we heard anything about those people who decided to guard Shasta (Nienna, Pitch, Sally)? I still find that choice the odd one and against our best interests.I think that was talked about yesterDay, at least Sally explained and I think Pitch did too, I can't remember if Nienna did. I'm too lazy to look it up for you but yes, that was discussed.

A sidenote: I find it rather amusing that Nog just said the two of us won't be flood-posting toDay and yet it seems to be the two of us having a dialogue by ourselves... :rolleyes:

[McCaber]

Dang. I'm going to have a lot less time than I originally thought.

So it seems I'm the number one suspect toDay, with two votes already and no one else really being mentioned. Let's see what I can do to answer some of these accusations, at least.

It seems some of the biggest points against me are voting for Inzil twice, both when he was in no danger of being lynched. Day 1 was a semi-random vote on my end, because I didn't think Kit looked bad and I wanted to bring up an alternate possibility. Day 2 was because I thought Legate was completely innocent by then, and I didn't want to join a bandwagon. Inzil was still my top suspect, so I voted him. I said we could lynch Legate then, but I didn't want to.

I brought up the Plan (tm) because people were still talking about it and I still think it was a bad idea. I stayed away from the Hakonwagon because I thought he was misguided, not a wolf.

That's just about all my thought processes on my actions. Now I have to think about which people look wolfy/guardable, and vote within maybe half an hour.

[McCaber]

All right. I'm out of time. My fate is your own.

++ Pitchwife

++ Nilpaurion Felagund

The first is because I have no idea whether he's being framed, is in fact a wolf, or is caught in some crazy coincidence. The second is because he's still making sense, and I'd like to see him stick around.

[Boromir88]

Golly-gee willakers I haven't even finished reading what happened yesterday.

[A Little Green]

Now I'll have to vote as I'm going to sleep quite soon. I was kind of hoping to have more material to draw conclusions from, as it is the wolves will be the ones who profit since no one talks. They'll love this Day. I hope there is a sudden huge flood of posting still to come, though that doesn't help me a whole lot in deciding who to vote.

Or, actually, there isn't much to decide. I'll go after my top (and only) suspect since I haven't had the time to analyse old posts and there haven't been that many new ones - which means that my opinions of people haven't had that big a chance of changing. Therefore:

++ Sally

++Nienna

The latter because she's the one I feel most comfortable with.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro - yay, I actually x-ed with someone! So cool!

[Brinniel]

Greenie- Nienna can't be guarded toNight since she was guarded last Night.

[A Little Green]

Whooops. :o Thanks for telling me! Luckily each player is allowed two retractable guard-votes so I can do this:

-- Nienna
++ Wilwa

If she's innocent (like she seems now) she'll be someone the wolves want to be rid of. And if she happened to be a wolf I wouldn't lament her fellows having to do one Night without her.

[Boromir88]

Also with Boro I'm a bit uneasy with this kind of throw-aways:
First of all I don't think I never said I was innocent before this post (I think I said it toDay though) not to talk of me requiring you to think of me as one. Well I am innocent (second call), but I can't require you to believe me just by my word or by any dubious standard relating on how the wolves choose to play their game ot not. The problem with this is that you make it look like I have claimed innocense because of that Night's actions which I haven't and thence trying to claim something which basically a wolf would try to claim. But if you were a wolf wishing to see me lynched that would actually be the exact subtle way of trying it out whether others would pick on it.

It was a mix-up on my part, I thought it was you and wilwa who both pointed out that the the wolves were using the guard vote to frame innocents, thus since you were guarded during Night 3 you were an assumed innocent. But it was wilwa and Hakon.


Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.
Because usually I'm very loud and in people's faces?

[Boromir88]

Hmm something else Nogrod said that I thought I commented on, but for some reason it didn't show up and now I can't find it.

Basically it's when Nog said he feels guilty for not trying enough so far, and then basically getting a free pass, which funny enough I feel like I'm in the same boat. It's really eerie to not have anyone challenging me to do better, when I really have done nothing at all. Well, except wilwa who just did today and makes her look a better to me, but at this point, I've done no analysis on anyone, and absolutely nothing, so I'm more or less just playing randomly and un-Borolike. The fact that no one is directly calling me out on it is scary...well again excluding wilwa who just did today.

[Nogrod]

Well this is going to be a tough one: I need to wake up in about seven hours and it's two to the deadline...

At the moment I'm wawering between McCaber and Pitchwife. A lot has been said about McC lately but I'm going to go back a little to see if my suspicions on Pitchie have any merit looking backwards on his actions.

And sure Sally is someone I have suspected a lot earlier - but like Brinn, I have kind of become more easy with her as the Days have passed - Or have I just forgotten about her?

And just as a sidenote: I'm pretty sure not all Nilp, Nienna, Wilwa and Brinn are innocent. The problem is how to differentiate a really good villager from a rotten apple. But looking at the time and our numbers I'm not going to risk voting any one of them toDay.

Heh, that leaves only Greenie and Boro unmentioned. Well for a reason: I don't have the slightest concrete point either way... :(

[Boromir88]

++Pitchwife

No particular reason at all other than I feel uncomfortable about his post on Day 2 that laid out reasons to suspect me. It made me feel he was innocent, but then Inzil chose to quote Pitch and defend me. Maybe 2-wolves working together, and Pitch was defensive of Inzil.

Now Inzil did vote to guard Pitch, but that was the 1st vote for Pitch and it was a 3-way tie with Shasta and Nerwen. I mean on that day it only took 3 votes.

[Boromir88]

++Guard Nogrod

Trust him more than anyone else at this point, or maybe just have a more solid read on/ability to read than the rest.

[Nienna]

Hmm something else Nogrod said that I thought I commented on, but for some reason it didn't show up and now I can't find it.

Basically it's when Nog said he feels guilty for not trying enough so far, and then basically getting a free pass, which funny enough I feel like I'm in the same boat. It's really eerie to not have anyone challenging me to do better, when I really have done nothing at all. Well, except wilwa who just did today and makes her look a better to me, but at this point, I've done no analysis on anyone, and absolutely nothing, so I'm more or less just playing randomly and un-Borolike. The fact that no one is directly calling me out on it is scary...well again excluding wilwa who just did today.

Ok then.... you have an hour and a half before deadline. Do something productive. K? thanks. If you are worried about playing well then analyze someone or ... something... please. But since you voted... I assume you are off?

[Brinniel]

I believe Nienna asked me why I found wilwa suspicious, so I've pulled up some quotes to better explain why I'm uneasy about her:

Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.
First mention of her suspicion of Legate, almost four hours after the Day begins. Considering she felt so strongly about his guilt, I wonder why she never even bothered to mention him in her earlier posts.


So I still think that there is no way the wolves would have given up that extra kill. Yes it messes with our heads, which I'm sure they enjoy, but it doesn't really benefit them in a solid way. So they want Legate dead? Well they could have just killed him toNight, they wouldn't of had to set him up for us to kill him. They could have gotten two innocents last Night, plus (statistically) we probably would have lynched another innocent toDay. It's so early in the game, and they are but 4 people hidden among 18 that there is no way they were soooo scared of getting lynched that they resorted to setting him up. I'm not at all convinced of that. They're ability to kill 2 at Night will only last for so long, since we will eventually get a wolf, and they know this. They wouldn't have given that up purely just to confuse us...we usually confuse ourselves fairly easily on our own nyway.

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.
I don't really like this post. She spends a whole paragraph talking about how the wolves just wouldn't possibly skip a kill, but in the next paragraph she's like, oh but in case they did... And she says that lynching an innocent isn't too damaging to the village and even if there were two kills were made, we'd still probably end up lynching an innocent. Any lynching of an innocent is harmful to the village and who knows what would've happened if two kills were made instead, clearing Legate. Inziladun was the runner up with votes that Day, so maybe we could've lynched a wolf on Day 2 after all.

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.
Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.
Confident of his guilt and eager to lynch.

I also seriously doubt that, if they did give up the extra kill, that they would ever do it a second time, that would just put them way to far behind.

Interesting that she says this considering the events of the next Night.

x'posted with Legate, so I got a little excited, we lost our seer so early of course I'm excited at the prospect of getting a wolf toDay, and not having to worry about double Night kills is a relief as well
Again, very eager. Any sort of excitement to lynch makes me uneasy, especially when that victim turns out innocent.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.
Starting to show a bit of doubt.

Every time I re-read everything Legate says he makes more and more sense to me. I see the merit that his ideas have. I don't think they're as likely as some other possibilities, but I do really respect the work he's put into them. I do however still think that lynching him would get us further along, if he's guilty (which I think is more probable) then that's awesome, if he happens to be innocent then it provides us with a better idea of what sort of wolves we're dealing with, and we can try to figure out who would have been more likely to agree/come up with such a risky bluff. I'm seeing that the latter is more possible then I originally thought it was, but I don't think it's as likely, so I'm willing to take the risk. Besides, if we did lynch someone else instead we would just be back to wondering what to do with Legate tomorrow (not to mention we could accidently kill another gifted), and we wouldn't really have accomplished to much regarding that subject. So it's our best bet really, despite the risk.
She starts to backtrack her confidence near the end of the Day admitting there's a possibility he's innocent, but shares reasons why we should lynch him anyway. There are some points here I do agree with, but it's the fact that she seemed soo confident not much earlier that makes me wary.


now, since I really don't see me changing my mind on that, even if I'm starting to get a bit uneasy about this, it still just seems the most logical choice. Will wait to cast my guard vote though for a bit.
At first she was excited to lynch Legate, and now she's uneasy? It was around this time some began to share the idea that if Legate turns out innocent, then it's probable that wilwa's a wolf. Knowing that Legate would be lynched and revealed innocent could've scared a wilwa wolf enough for her to change her behaviour and lose some confidence in hopes that it would make her look better.

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway. I think it's just something she automatically does in order to always give, what she thinks is, a good vote. Cause even when someone is innocent they may still do things in order to not look suspicious.
Her defense of Sally combined with Sally's behaviour at the end of yesterDay makes me wonder if they could be wolves together.

Anyway, good job everyone! I'll post all of Inzil's posts in a couple of minutes, cause I don't think there were too too many. Might give us some info.

I'm always wary of posts that say "good job" or "hurray" after lynching a wolf. It just feels fake to me.

hmm, Hakon surprised me. I mean I know that he's still fairly new at this, but he was participating so much more then usual it seemed logical that he must of had people helping him out.
Interesting that she says it seemed logical that Hakon would be a wolf considering she didn't even vote for him. If she found him so suspicious yesterDay, why did she vote McCaber instead?

[Brinniel]

I really hope Sally shows up toDay, as I'd like to hear an answer to my question earlier. Her behaviour at the end of yesterDay makes me a bit suspicious of her, but then again I could be misunderstanding something, so I'm not sure.

[Nogrod]

Heh, just realised that I basically (not counting Nessa that is) have 1/3 possibility to hit it right.

Okay. Pitchwife then...

Boro, although I found him looking good earlier and would much prefer still finding him so, is starting to worry me a little bit, now I look at him a little closer. Reasons:

* says Inzil feels wolfish quite early, for what seem to me very flimsy reasons;
* supports Mnemo's plan, though cautiously;
* says he can't see the wolves wasting a night-kill to frame somebody, and
* thinks McCaber needs watching for suggesting they might;
* concurs with Nog's suspicion of Lommy;
* suspects Kit (which persuaded myself at the time) and votes her;
* argues for lynching Legate, dismisses Legate's defense that he was framed (see above!), and votes him;
* hasn't said anything notable about the fact that Leg was indeed framed, and says Nog is still suspicious because of the one kill.

Taken all together, this looks somewhat creepy.Well this is an interesting one... I really had to think about this a few times as I think I have kind of neglected what this actually says.

But in the end I must say that apart from the last dot there is no problem (and I'm not sure big one that is). I mean it looks like he suggests there is a contradiction where there isn't one. It's totally in line to think that the wolves wouldn't miss a kill and then suspect the guarded person the next Day. What else would you do with that premise? (So I'm pointing to the "(see above!)" -thing.)

Also I do wonder about the last sentence. Saying it "looks creepy" is a bit overdoing it in a wolvish fashion, especially as there really doesn't seem to be anything "creepy" in there. So the whole post looks like more fabricated than real.

Pitch managed to help lynching Kit and Legate while voting to guard Boro & me on Days 1 & 2 - and seeing that the wolves had the idea of trying to frame innocents in the beginning to divert our tactics and to try and lynch those protected he got it right with me - and thence possibly with Boro as well?

This is interesting as well... He discusses why he isn't suspected as yet in an sarcastic way pointing out all the faults he has made... okay, read yourselves: Indeed, I find this current lack of suspicion quite surprising myself. Can't somebody suspect me, please? I've got used to it by now. And I mean, look, I had quite a part in the NG-test discussion, I voted to lynch our Seer on Day 1 and another innocent yesterDay, I was part of the Nogrod Guardwagon, and now I start suspecting someone I voted to Guard earlier, while defending a heavily suspected Inzil, who in turn votes to Guard me! Surely a case can be made from that?The interesting thing being that in the beginning he kind of admits his bad decisions he has done and in hindsight knows they were bad decisions, but then he moves to the future (and unknown if he would be a villager) - like he already knows his decisions are not good for the village; like he knows they are things that will cause harm to the village!

And he brought in some pretty heavy artillery to make a case for Inzil: it just occurred to me this might be because he's an innocent with a secret role... ?Let's not repeat the mistake we made with Kit!Quite a lot to "just suppose"...


Okay, I see people are posting and I need a cigarette so I'll stop for a moment. But as you see, I'm actually getting more uneasy with Pitch even if I only scanned a few pages...

[Nogrod]

Brinn: I'm not sure whether the Devil's advocate hasn't taken the better of you in your analysis on Wilwa in general (I mean the kind of "developement-story" with Legate might just be genuine reconsideration dawning on her and her trigger-happiness might be a personality-trait) but I think the last one you pointed out about Hakon is indeed worth looking at - and I think I need to see what they did last Evening with Sally as I don't right now remember it.

Okay, now spoiling my lungs for a minute... :(

[Nienna]

When Boro was making contributions: Note: edited for Smileys because apparently you can't have 18 in one post... who knew?

I's ready to do mysa part and be an attractive kill choice. I never knew wolves who would deny themselves nice, thick and crispy bacon. Mmm

Oh and I guess that means no one should waste their time trying to save me at night...Elles ont comprend? (If that is wrong, please don't correct me).

Tries to be wolf-bait. Interesting…

Nilp! Welcome back to this institution that you, yes you, have gotten me addicted to.

Inzil, sorry, it's happening again. I'm getting those wolf feelings about you...wouldn't mind if I voted for you today would ya?

Oh, and Nilp has an uncontrollable tendancy to want to lynch himself, just so you are made aware of that.

Bad feelings about Zil right from the start. Could be wolf-on wolf.

Oh pig loins! All the suspicion you acquire every single time, has made you much more cool and calm. I should have expected it.

I wouldn't say that. Mnemo's has gotten several people talking about a subject, there's information there, now let's look through it. There are still too many quiet villagers, but hey there's been a lot of commenting on Mnemo's plan.

Since she was the originator, I don't see how proposing a controversial idea, while getting lots of comments on it makes someone suspicious. We've been given about as good as info as we can expect to get on Day 1, courtesy of Mnemo. Now look through it and interpret it, because it's not posts and posts about pigs, fools, and feminine wiles.

For the time being, I see Mnemo as kind of the aunt you want to keep at arm's length. She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now.

By the way, I wouldn't mind trying her plan once the wolves are down to 1 kill. Two kills complicates everything, and could really make a mess of things, but if one wolf be gone, well it may just be worth it. Maybe it's just me, but the fact is sometimes as a wolf you have to do some real crazy stuff to win, it's no cake walk that's for sure. I think at times we have to do the same, and try out something that seems a little "out there." It could fail stupendously, but it could give us a brilliant and worthy win.

Is glad Mnemo brought up her plan as it gives us something to talk about. He just isn’t willing to do it yet.

Haha, sorry that won't be happening this time around. The lazy bums will have to do the work themselves, as I will have to do for myself.

I'm getting to that soonish, but I will probably have to vote a few hours before the DL.

Not at all, merely pointing out I don't see why the plan would make Mnemo look suspicious, at first look. There are innocent intentions, and it's been well thought out. Plus the way she's defended it afterwards looks more innocent...it hasn't been a

"Hey lets get the seer to reveal and have us and the Ranger switch off proteting."

A loud "NO!" from the crowd.

Mnemo: "Oh, ok, guess I was wrong...so who's a wolf?"

She's thought it out and defended it quite well, and I don't agree with sally at all about it being cheap. Hey, we use the toys the mod-god gives us...If the wolves think it's cheap, they need to quit their whining and figure out how they want to beat it.

My only reservation is, as Kitanna said, it shouldn't absolve her. It's not like wolves can't come up with an apparently helpful, ingenius idea, only then to tell her packmates to mess it up.

Hmm interesting, but I would take it more as a fortunate circumstance if it just so happens we guard a wolf. I'm going to make my decision based on either someone I would not want to see killed, or someone who I think would force the wolves hand.

Like, say we could hope to protect one of the no-trail kills, to try and force the wolves to actually kill someone who will leave a trail back to them. How it stands now though, I think I'll go with option one today, because there be still too many no-trailers for the wolves to pick off.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Pitch

Defends Mnemo for her plan. Thinks that if we guard a wolf it will just be good luck and not to make decisions based on it.

So, Mnemo unveils her plan straight away, and has to adjust the original idea, because the Mayor said we can't Night guard the same person two nights in a row. That is how I understand the Ranger was brought into the situation.

Now lets just see what everyone's said about it...

wilwa in post 8:

which crossed with Mnemo's 7, where she brought up the ranger too. Two people who thought the same thing, something that wilwa pointed out and it appears now Mnemo didn't appreciate the comparison.

Kitanna's post 9

The quick dismissiveness of the post looks suspicious. I read it as "Ya, ok, whatever...but the wolves will find a way around it so no point in continuing.

Plus, it really wouldn't be difficult to organize. Seer reveals, we protect seer Night 1 (the ranger will know because who we Night guard is known) then Ranger takes seer next night. The risk is since everyone is not on the same page with the plan, it would be unwise to do it right away, for only chaos can ensue from innocents not being on the same page, add on top wolves trying to mess things up.

Kitanna in 13 too caught my attention

Ahh honourably trying to look out for the innocents best interest are we? Balderdash. I would happily be killed if it means the seer is not, and so should any other innocent. The seer is our best weapon, and if we can be assured that the seer is kept alive to get multiple dreams, it's worth the sacrifice.

And Inzil's 22 is why I said he was looking like a wolf to me again

He rather forcibly rejects the idea with what I read as a rhetorical question, but then says there is some sense to it if we give it serious thought. Then goes back to agree with Kitanna's and be just as dismissive as Kit.

Did you really think we would be foolish enough to just go full steam ahead with an unconventional plan and not talk it out before asking the seer to reveal?

I have to stop here, I thought I'd be able to cram everything in, in roughly 40 minutes, but can't. I'll finish with the rest of the reactions to Mnemo's plan, when I get back, and then vote.

Edit: crossed since sally's post 90

I think this might have been the beginnings of the Kit suspicion. He still thinks Zil is suspicious.

Continuing then...as a matter of aside, I really hate financial advising appointments. I mean really is it necessary to take hours to only learn you have no money?

Nienna in 28

This looks innocent, disagrees and notes the risk of it. Plus her other post today (#92) looks good too, I just wish Nienna would step out more. You've got a smart mind, have some confidence and trust it.

So we reach Legate in #33, I think this was before the post where Nogrod points to taking a moral high-ground. Others have already brought up that the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal, but I want to look at this (bold my emphasis)...

What? The seer is no real use unless xe catches wolves? When did the idea that the seer needs to do our work for us happen? Ok, maybe that's rhetorical because it is always nice when the seer says "here's your wolves people." But how often does that really happen?

Most of the wolf-lynchings that happen are done by our own work and sweat, and a sprinkle of good fortune. Any information a seer gives is valuable, whether the seer knows wolves or not. Known innocents may become a night target, but it also limits the unknown number, thus increasing our chances to lynch a wolf during the day. Sorry, saying the seer would be no use unless the seer has a wolf is just wrong.

Greenie in 36:

Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?

And that's about all I feel like commenting on, or what hasn't been said/who hasn't been pointed out. For, I concur with Nogrod about Lommy objecting because it would be unfair to the wolves. Although, sally hints at the same thing, and I really don't find her suspicious. I just wish ye both would get out of your heads that we have to play nicely with the wolves. Of course there are always certain things off limit, as meta-gaming reasons, but look these are the weapons we've been given to work with...let's try to use them. Don't do the wolves work for them, let them figure out how they want to beat whatever plans we come up with.

Edit: crossed with Kit and on.

Thinks the seer’s info is just extra and that we have to work to catch the wolves on our own. He also thinks that we shouldn’t do the wolves work for them. Seems reasonable.

Funnily enough I may put in my lynch vote before my guard vote. It's almost like with a guard-vote my honor is at stake.

…interesting…

[lynch vote]++Kitanna[/lynch vote]

Thought her reactions to Mnemo earlier in the day were suspicious, as well as her lynch-vote for Brinn. How is it that Brinn always seems to get herself in trouble...even when she actively tries to avoid it? Must be frustrating.

And I will guard

++Nienna

tonight.

He mentioned many times that he thought Zil wolf-like. He did mention some suspicion of Kit and I guess it outweighed his suspicion of Zil… or he would rather lynch an innocent than a pack mate…

Unbelievable, the seer gone again in Day 1? This is a joke, isn't it? Hopefully one of the hidden roles was a seer.

I'd say it would be pretty stupid not to do it, but we shouldn't just vote and attend our other business. We have to make every day a productive day now.

I'm watching McCaber who pointed out the wolves may want to fake us out and only chose one kill, so we lynch the person we guarded the day before. Interesting theory, but most peculiar that McCaber points this out yesterday, Legate is guarded, and we awake with only one death.

For now too I feel good about Pitch who pointed out something in the rules that I overlooked. Usually that's a pretty good judge of someone's innocence, even though if wolves will read rules too, I doubt they would point out something like that which would only hurt them.

Good point about McCaber. Feels good about Pitch.

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.

Good point. But it also works against your argument.

That's the point, there are other gifteds. The seer is the most dangerous threat to the wolves, but they shouldn't get cocky. There are other gifteds, and other secret roles, which can turn out to be known innocents too. Too many known innocents is as much of a threat to the wolves as the seer can be. Ask Nienna about it, despite lynching the seer on Day 1, having so many potential known innocents at the end nearly ruined them.

I can see the wolves trying it if they need one lynch for a victory, but there's a lot of villagers, and still a lot of threats to the wolves, even if the seer is dead. If they want to play games and waste kill chances be my guest. But pulling a trick, just to frame an innocent because they are feeling good about fortune on Day 1 makes little sense.


Relax. I said that very thing in my first post, but I'm tired, I have school and other things I'm busy with, allow me a bit more time.

Thinks wolves making a frame instead of a kill doesn’t make a lot of sense. This could be wolf with insider knowledge or … more likely… innocent not knowing

And before I do my thorough read through:


You should note too that Inzil has been acting that way towards others, which is why I'm suspicious of him...

To me...


And to Hakon...

Yes he has Inzil, and what's the point if he hasn't?

Suspicious of Zil still…

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

I remember Mac in Brinn's last game after claiming (successfully) to be the Ranger, but still not dying that night passionately, and in some ways convincingly, argued that he was being set up as an easy lynch. Still didn't take away from the fact that it was a bogus defense because if he wasn't a wolf and declared he was the Ranger, the wolves would have killed him, but they didn't, ergo Mac had to be one of the wolves.

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

And now to other things

Thinks Legate is a wolf and that framing defense is the weakest.

If I recall correctly, the NG was not the reason you were found suspicious yesterday.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

Guard.

++Nerwen

Me really likes her approach to everything so far.

I'm voting now because I may be able to rush back to my apartment and say a little more before the DL, but there's a good chance I won't be able to.

Votes Legate and guards Nerwen.

She won't, she's having serious laptop issues because of a nasty trojan and I don't think she'll be able to come back, which means it's up to the Mayor with what he wants to do.

I don't think so, it strikes me as a very sally thing to do. I don't know if it was really necessary to do it after every single vote, but I can tell you it was certainly nice as a mod to get the vote tallies as the DL was closing down, instead of scrolling through pages to gather all the votes while constantly checking the time and making sure the game closes on time.

Defends Sally

A quick question about the NG votes, if one wolf goes, would one of the other 3 try to attract the NG vote or not? Something for us to mull over perhaps.

I didn't know you wanted to tango, or I may have been more willing. My apologies. Although, I may seem a bit off from my normal combativeness, that is mostly though due to other things. Like not originally intending to play in a game after modding one and being a bit exhausted this week.

Crossed with Noggers

But that behavior towards the end is not unusual to sally, whether wolf or not. So for now, I'm agreeing with Pitch, it's too flimsy and I'm not going to suspect her for that, when also considering the rest of her participation. It's not like she has been giving us updated vote tallies the entire time.

Still defending Sally

Very short day for me today again...too much on my platter at the moment, but I will say...

Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.

I wonder if I can read through before I have to leave?

Oh and this is going to be a complete flip-flop from what I said about Nogrod, but I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1? That's all I got to offer right now, my apologies for bumming around.

Thinks that even though we know not to trust the NG we should still look at Nog.

Fair enough, for me I don't see the purpose because Eonwe has repeatedly said he's not giving any mod hints, maybe it was a slip, but why blow it up to that extent? Did you really expect something like "Yep, you got me, I made a slip."

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

NG Votes for Legate (Day 1):

Brinn
Nerwen
Shasta
Nogrod
Lommy
wilwa

(Italics be the dead innocents)

NG Votes for Nogrod (Day 2):

Greenie
Pitch
McCaber
wilwa
Nessa
Inzil
Hakon

That's interesting, the only repeated name is wilwa. I would also like to point out from Pitch on down to Hakon was just pretty much a large guard Nogrod wagon. With Legate there really wasn't a wagon, it was pretty split between guarding me or Legate.

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes. Or maybe that just means we have wolves who are trying to distance themselves from eachother and spread out? hmmm

Worried about Wilwa and how she keeps popping up in suspicious activity.

Ahh, and I'll be away until 2 or 3-ish my time, so there best be some real good analysis that I can come back to.

And ye wolves were probably most unwise to leave me alive this long ha, I gave you the chance to kill me early when I was exhausted. Now the fire's been lit and it will be most difficult to lynch me, you'd be sure to regret it because it would be your end.

Hmmmm…..

Yes, maybe something along the lines of a person who can cause the sun to rise, thus ending the wolves night activities early if said person picks a number 1-6 and it is the same number the Mayor has rolled. The Mayor is a gambler right? That would be awesome...mind you this is just my random speculation.

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye

Interesting thoughts on special roles

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night.

One little thing about Shasta that bothers me and I didn't get a chance to bring up, when he said this towards Legate.

I don't like those types of suspicions, because it relies on certain words people use, and we all have common words or phrases we recycle. Just because we say I'd like to "see" more from this person or "watch" them doesn't mean we are saying "Hi. Im the seer!" Legate's usage of "us innocents" or identifying with the innocents shouldn't point to any one's wolvery or not, it's a very common thing to say in this game.

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)...but suspecting Legate in the way Shasta did, pointing out a common phrase many of us use looks bad. So, Shasta, whatcha got to say for yourself?

Doesn’t think the wolves would want to guard themselves even though we can no longer trust the NG results. He thinks they would want to be able to plot with each other. Suspicious of Shasta.

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now. This read maybe the best I ever get on her, and I'm feeling innocent...if not congrats Nerwen.

She's already made this point about Inzil, but you can say the same thing with Kitanna too. There was no indication that when Nerwen voted Kitanna was going to be lynched. If Kitanna felt she was in big danger of getting lynched, she would have revealed...she wouldn't have liked it, but she would have had to reveal.

Since it was Day 1, you could argue my 2nd vote made her a viable lynch option...fine. But take note that I was after Kitanna from the get go and any of the reasons against her were people bandwagoning onto my susicions. And that bandwagon really started against her once she left and Inzil hopped onto my suspicions.

I also think Pitch looks better than wilwa because even though wilwa could argue she was merely trying to save herself, she's also done a bang up job at being involved in the other wagons. Add on top of that Pitch's post where he says people should take a look at me (that of which I am much appreciated for because it made me aware of how crappy I've been playing and I need to get my rear in gear), but suddenly when I announce my suspicions on wilwa, she fires back latching onto Pitch's points suddenly saying the "re-reading" of my posts gave her a different feeling.

Defending Nerwen, thinks Pitch looks better than Wilwa.

Snappy, yes, because I'm finding out I'm having only about 2 hours a day, total to be on read everything and then post. The way I normally like to do things hasn't been possible.

But, I'm not sure how I have been "sniffing the mood." I've said my suspicions are Shasta and Wilwa, and I said why. Plus currently Nog, Pitch, and Nerwen look innocent. The rest I'm unsure, because I really haven't given much thought towards them. How is announcing suspicions and the ones I feel innocent about "sniffing the mood?" I thought that was the purpose of this thing.

[lynch vote]++wilwa[/lynch vote]

because I said so...and

++Guard Nilp

also, because I said so.

Votes for Wilwa to lynch and Nilp to guard. He also defends himself.

11 people left, 3 are wolves and I would be the rest of my savings that wilwa is one of them.

Still after Wilwa.

Hmm something else Nogrod said that I thought I commented on, but for some reason it didn't show up and now I can't find it.

Basically it's when Nog said he feels guilty for not trying enough so far, and then basically getting a free pass, which funny enough I feel like I'm in the same boat. It's really eerie to not have anyone challenging me to do better, when I really have done nothing at all. Well, except wilwa who just did today and makes her look a better to me, but at this point, I've done no analysis on anyone, and absolutely nothing, so I'm more or less just playing randomly and un-Borolike. The fact that no one is directly calling me out on it is scary...well again excluding wilwa who just did today.

I’ve commented on this already.

[lynch vote]++Pitchwife[/lynch vote]

No particular reason at all other than I feel uncomfortable about his post on Day 2 that laid out reasons to suspect me. It made me feel he was innocent, but then Inzil chose to quote Pitch and defend me. Maybe 2-wolves working together, and Pitch was defensive of Inzil.

Now Inzil did vote to guard Pitch, but that was the 1st vote for Pitch and it was a 3-way tie with Shasta and Nerwen. I mean on that day it only took 3 votes.

This unsettles me. His very first post of the day and he says he would bet all his money that Wilwa is a wolf. He doesn’t post anything of substance and then he votes for someone different. Creepy.

++Guard Nogrod

Trust him more than anyone else at this point, or maybe just have a more solid read on/ability to read than the rest.

So I don’t think I’ve formed a conclusive enough opinion of Boro but he looks a little fishy. Right now I don’t know if that fishy-ness if wolvery but it is still something to keep our eyes on.

[Nienna]

With only a 1/2 hour to go:

Lynch:
Wilwa--> McCaber
Nilp--> McCaber (2)
McCaber--> Pitchwife
Greenie--> Sally
Boro--> Pitchwife (2)

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally

Guard:
Wilwa--> Greenie
Nilp--> Boro
McCaber--> Nilp
Greenie--> Nienna
--Greenie-- Nienna
Greenie --> Wilwa
Boro--> Nog

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally

[Nogrod]

Brinn, what was your point on Sally and Wilwa at the end of yesterDay?

Sally made a lot of work to show how suspicious Hakon was and he turned out innocent. Sure.

They both voted to guard Nienna - as did Nerwen...

But looking at the yesterDay evening I'd say that Nienna was in the middle of the affairs as well.

I'm leaning toward voting Hakon or McCaber to lynch... I'm hesitant to jump on a bandwagon but they really are acting suspicious.

Wilwa, Sally, and Nog seem alright to me.

I do not like Hakon's vote for Wilwa and I actually don't know where this suspicion is coming from. I'd rather see Hakon lynched.

++ Hakon

and

++Guard Sally

because she is making a whole lot of sense.

Edit: x-ed with Brinn... bah. I don't know if I like that vote for Wilwa either...
:confused:

[satansaloser2005]

Here, at least mostly.


About the end of yesterDay, Sally, I still don't understand why you dislike my vote for wilwa so much. I felt practically attacked for a vote I thought perfectly reasonable; I don't see what's wrong in voting for the one you suspect the most. So if you didn't want to save wilwa why were you so upset with me voting her? Did you want me to vote Hakon or McCaber instead? I was still uncertain about Hakon and uncomfortable with that bandwagon against him, and I didn't suspect McCaber as much. So why should I have voted them over wilwa?

It's late so I really don't have time for much posting tonight, but I'll be around when I get up tomorrow.

It just looked weird to me. It wasn't that so much as you trying to wind me up afterward that made me suspect you. That and of course I was afraid we'd end up at a tie, which would have made me quite angry.


Oooo look! A vote count! I'm so glad- Oi, that's my job! :p

*finishes catching up*

[Nienna]

Nog: I thought that post pretty self-explanatory. At the time I didn't really know where her suspicion of Wilwa was coming from. Today I have asked and found out so am now feeling better about Brinn and worse about Wilwa.

[Nogrod]

Two more I ran across with while looking at yesterDay's last hours...

Direct answer to Nog about my Shasta Guard vote:
In addition to what I said earlier toDay: OK, maybe he wasn't a very likely wolf target - but then again, you never know; anyway, I felt it was time to use the NG as it was meant to - i.e. to keep alive somebody we feel is innocent, not to test and safeguard people we have second thoughts about (as I had about Nerwen at the time). And unlike you, I like to keep those who haven't said that much around and give them a chance to improve.Like I said yesterDay: why would you choose someone who does not play? That's playing to the hands of the wolves! And the same question goes to Sally as well!

Bolding mine in the next one...
What I'm saying is, The Plan was so good I thought everybody could see it was good, so everybody arguing against it would make themselves suspicious. Hence the wolves - at least some of them - might have found themselves driven to support it, although The Plan itself was bad for them, to make themselves look good. Whether I was right assuming so is another question, but that is what I meant.But I can't see you backing the plan too forcefully back then... It didn't look like you tried to sway the rest of the village to see it's good sides on Day1... :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

Like I said yesterDay: why would you choose someone who does not play? That's playing to the hands of the wolves! And the same question goes to Sally as well!

Heh. 'Cause I'm dumb and forgot that Shasta hadn't been around. Who doesn't want to keep the village psychic? :)


Finishing a list. Back in like a second.

[satansaloser2005]

I know it's a bit late in the game to be voting on feelings, but I don't have time to look through all the posts. I'm considering....a Wilwa lynch? (The thing is I don't know if it's me who came up with this in my head or if I'm just subconsciously going along with the discussion of Wilwa toDay. Maybe I'll look at her toNight and hope to be around to take care of her tomorrow. I've not decided yet.


Suspicious:
Cabbie (for reasons previously stated)
Boro (because I keep forgetting he's playing)
Wilwa (general furriness radiating from her, but I need to look at her closer)
Nessa (although this is a moot point....a quiet Nessa is an evil Nessa, but this is different)


In the middle:
Greenie (can't get a read on her)
Pitchie (looks rather suspicious but can't bring myself to vote him for some reason)
Brinn (just for the end of yesterDay....I'm not prepared to vote her, but I want to keep an eye on her)
Nilp (again, keep forgetting he's playing, even though he's not been lurking much)


Innocent:
Sally (duh!)
Nienna
Nog

[Nogrod]

So what should it be?

If we miss we'd better miss with McCaber as he doesn't contribute too much and the less there are people around the more we need to be able to read from each other.

But I think I could be ready to vote for Pitchwife as well. I know analysing people and looking whether they could be wolvish tends to make one see lupinity everywhere and I might be blinded by my search on him.

Any others people would like to bring forwards gathering three votes (to surpass the two aforementioned)?


EDIT: X'd with Sally x2

[Nienna]

I'd be game for last minute Wilwa lynch. She has just been a little off and looking at others opinions of her I think the same... I'm not entirely comfortable voting for Pitchwife or McCaber right now...

[Nogrod]

Now how many of you are just lurking around and watching how this goes?

If you are just looking on, then the probability that you are wolves is high enough and thence our top candidates might be innocent as you don't feel like intervening?

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Wilwa--> McCaber
Nilp--> McCaber (2)
McCaber--> Pitchwife
Greenie--> Sally
Boro--> Pitchwife (2)

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally

Guard:
Wilwa--> Greenie
Nilp--> Boro
McCaber--> Nilp
Greenie--> Nienna
--Greenie-- Nienna
Greenie --> Wilwa
Boro--> Nog

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally


Jacked this from Nienna in order to comment on the options.

Lynching:
Cabbie: find him really darn suspicious....I'd hate to be wrong two Days in a row though :(
Pitch: flip flopping on him, so I'm not sure I want to kill him right now....maybe toMorrow
Sally: Erm....right....


Guard:
Greenie: not sure if I trust her, but I suppose if she's a baddie at least she'll be kept away from her maties
Boro: suspicious of him based on....erm, nothing really, but I doubt he'd be the Night kill anyway (Now that I say that, of course....:rolleyes:)
Nilp: I could go with this....I'd like to see some more from my prince yet
Wilwa: Meh.
Nog: Possible. He's good to keep around....and besides, if he's evil....

[Brinniel]

Brinn, what was your point on Sally and Wilwa at the end of yesterDay?
It's just that she very plainly stated she really disliked my vote and if it wasn't because she thought wilwa innocent, I couldn't really understand why. She was listed as one of my suspects in the post before, so I don't think it came out of nowhere.

It just looked weird to me. It wasn't that so much as you trying to wind me up afterward that made me suspect you. That and of course I was afraid we'd end up at a tie, which would have made me quite angry.
As I recall, there were still others left to vote, so I don't see how my vote would've made it a tie. In fact, I pulled wilwa in the lead; she was tied with Hakon before my vote. And I wasn't trying to wind you up; I was just trying to figure out why you didn't like me voting wilwa.

[Nogrod]

Brinn & Pitch?

EDIT: Haa, there you are Brinn... good.

[Brinniel]

wilwa's an obvious candidate for me. She's been my prime suspect all of toDay.

[Nienna]

*Points toward the admin thread for Nog about Pitch*

[Brinniel]

++wilwa

Guard:

++Boro

[Nienna]

++ Wilwa

++ Guard Nog

X-ed with Brinn

[Nogrod]

Thanks Nienna...

So you all are for Wilwa, right?

I can see why she looks suspicious and you might be right about it. I just haven't actually read her more closely and feel insecure for that reason...

EDIT: X'd wirth the votes...

[Brinniel]

Reason for guarding Boro: He seems honest and I think a wolfish him would try to be more active. He's valuable to the village even if he's not as active, so I'd hate to seem him killed.

[Nogrod]

I'll take my responsibility then as well

++ Wilwa


and

++ guard Boro

[Nogrod]

Let Pitchie defend himself toMorrow...

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Wilwarin is dead. Nogrod will be Night Guarded. Nessa will be modfired in the Night.

[satansaloser2005]

So I've been trying to put this in for over five minutes, but my internet kept hiccuping. Rubbish. (At least it's clear how I [would have] voted.)


++Wilwa

++Guard Nog


EDIT: x'd with Steve

[Eönwë]

The people were beginning to lose their original enthusiasm for finding and killing the wolves. Not everyone present spoke ore voted that Day.

It was only Nienna who spoke a lot that Day, and she recalled everything that was said by those that she found suspicious. Everyone chose who they thought was suspicious, but suddenly, at the end of the day, Brinniel cried out "Let's kill Wilwa!"
"Yes!" shouted Nienna.
"I agree" assented Nogrod.

And soon it was decided that Wilwarin would be the one to be killed.

"Let's use the gallows!" announced Eönwë. "We haven't had a good hanging in over half a week."

And so the village decided that a hanging was the best option, and took Wilwa to the gallows.

But as the executioner put the noose around her neck, she shouted, "No! No! Stop this! I'm your hunter! I'm the only one who has a chance of catching your wolves."

She took out a bow. It was made of a strange wood that none of the village had ever seen, and shimmered in the evening light. "This bow was given to me by Formendacil the Brave. In secret, he spent many years teaching me how to hunt evil beasts, knowing that we would need someone possessing this knowledge in the future of the village."

She took out an arrow from a seemingly concealed quiver. "I have chosen who I believe to be the wolf. I am correct then this will plunge straight into their heart and kill them instantly.

She fitted the arrow onto the string, and drew the string back as far as she could. She aimed her bow, was ready. She released the bow, and the arrow sped forwards at an impossible speed. But it stopped at two arm's lengths away, and caught fire. Within seconds, it had turned to ashes, which fell to the ground.

"I was wrong this time, but please give me another chance! I will be able to find the real wolves in no time, now that there are less of us here. Please let me have my freedom!" pleaded Wilwarin the Hunter.

"Let her have it!" shouted Eönwë

The executioner removed the support. Wilwa's eyes opened in shock and panic. Luckily for her, this one was quick, and she immediately slumped forwards, limp and lifeless.

"Nooo!" cried Eönwë. "I meant for you to give her her freedom, not kill her! How could you!"

Most of the watching villagers suddenly took a step back, aghast at what had just happened.

Wilwa's great bow fell from her lifeless hands, and clattered on the floor. It was examined, and was indeed made of some wood unknown to those parts. It had, inscribed upon it, many strange letters and symbols that none could understand. It was indeed a magical bow. They had just killed their hunter, and to no avail.

Now the guards took their place outside the house of Boro, waiting for the night to come.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary - Innocent (modfired)
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel - Innocent
wilwarin538- the village barmaid - Hunter

[Eönwë]

'Twas a dark night in Upper Downsbury. Eönwë was filled with restlessness, and could not sleep for the entire night. He sensed that something bad was about to happen.

Three silent shadows swept across the deserted streets of the village. The people of the village had switched their lights off, and darkness reigned supreme. It was a starless night, and if any villager had been outside, they would have been able to see nothing, save for a blacker heart of darkness within the darkness. With each day they grew stronger, and the dread that had on the first night only enveloped them now grew and lay upon the entire village like a shroud of death.

As well as their power, their confidence had also grown. Whereas before they had crept in the shadows and the corners, now the strolled down the streets, back straight and shoulders and head held high in foul grimaces.

It was a cold night, and their breath steamed, but it was barely visible in the darkness. They walked on, their feet leaving no imprint upon the ground. The only thing that a human observer would have seen would have been the red eyes that burned with the hatred of the fires of Angband. But any who would have beheld them would have been filled with an uncontrollable terror for the short time that marked the end of their lives. The large torches that served as street lights at night extinguished themselves as the Werewolves walked past.

They were almost in control now, it would only take two more days, and they would overrun the village and its inhabitants, raze its buildings and tear the inhabitants to pieces.

And then the reason for the starless night became clear. A flash of lightning in the distance pierced the night.

They reached the house of their choice. This was the most luxurious house in the small village, almost twice as large as any other. As they reached forward to open the door, it was opened before them, and in front of them stood a man, clothed in fine armour, sword in hand. Nogrod looked at them fiercely.

"You will not kill me, as you have done to the others!" he declared defiantly.

Lightning flashed again, this time nearer, and the thunder came, a deep rumble.

A strange sound was released by the wolves, a terrible sound, which Nogrod could only assume was laughing. He stood, bolder than ever, staring the evil right in the face. He would not falter.

And then one of the wolves stepped forward. It brought its head down to Nogrod's height, and let out a roar. This was no ordinary roar. The roar could be heard across the entire village, waking up most people. A baby could be heard crying the distance. The sheer power of the roar, with the wolf's thick saliva dripping through its teeth, almost knocked Nogrod off his feet, and forced him to take a step back, his head pounding, his ears deaf.

But the wolf spoke straight into his mind. Now, old man, you will taste the bitterness of death.

"I will not be killed in this way" bellowed Nogrod.

Lightning split the sky, directly above them this time. The thunder cracked like the whip of Morgoth and the landscape was lit in the blazing light for an instant.

But Nogrod's valiant efforts were in vain. The wolf stepped forwards and bit upon Nogrod's helmet. The teeth punctured and bend the metal as if it were clay. Nogrod stood no chance against such an evil. The creature of darkness bit hard, and ripped Nogrod's head from its body.

The body was eaten, but the head kept for a very special purpose.

And then the rain started, heavier than had ever been seen before in that land, streaming down in torrents, going down from the rooftops onto the streets, and washing away the blood from Nogrod's doorstep.
---

The Werewolves walked back together. The rain had abated slightly, but the icy droplets still fell. But the wolves didn't care. They had just destroyed one of their greatest enemies, and knew that they were in a good position.

As they passed a house, they saw Nessa walk out of her door, and plunge a long dagger into herself.

"See, they're doing our job for us," said one of the wolves.

The two others chuckled hellishly, and feasted upon her flesh.

---

Morning broke upon the village, and a bloody sunrise greeted the townspeople. The air was fresh and clean, yet it could be told that foul deeds had been committed that night.

And as the villagers assembled in the square, the extent of the night's evil became clear.

Standing in the centre of the village square, was the severed head of Nogrod, cloven from its body. The blood had been mixed with the rain, and there was a large reddish-puddle around it. This was the grisly scene that all who assembled that morning beheld.

Eönwë addressed the village. "So, we have lost Nogrod," he said solemnly. The people nodded, trying hard, but failing to ignore the terrible sight in front of them.

"And I see also that Nessa is missing. This is terrible news, terrible news indeed."

The people looked at their mayor, waiting to see the cause of his despair.

"This means that we only outnumber the beasts by two."

The crowd gasped in realisation.

"What it means for us is that we must catch a wolf today, or we are all going to die."

A mass-panic hit the village. People were shouting and screaming. Eönwë called for quiet. "Silence! Silence!" he said. "We must have peace today. For today we shall make the most important decision of our lives."

And so the discussion began.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary - Innocent (modfired)
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel - Innocent
wilwarin538- the village barmaid - Hunter
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress - Innocent (modfired)
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois - Innocent

[Nienna]

*Bangs head against wall*

I take full responsibility for Wilwa's death. I'm terribly sorry... I was worried about another Hakon-like lynch with McCaber and Brinn and Boro had made some good points against Wilwa... I totally second guessed myself and that sucks.

A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
McCaber
Nienna
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
satansaloser2005

In this list are 3 wolves. We need to lynch one today or we are pretty much doomed.

I'm thinking there is a wolf in either McCaber or Pitchwife and the other two between Nilp, Greenie, and Brinn.

*Wonders if there will be people posting today*

I'm also thinking of taking the I will lynch-vote you if you have less than 10 posts today because it is crucial to have everyone making a contribution so the wolves can slip and so that the innocents can work together. If you aren't contributing (unless you have serious RL issues) then you don't deserve your win. [/emo-rant]

[Boromir88]

Nienna now you know why I backed away wilwa.

I read this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610346&postcount=575) as a hint to some sort of giftedness, and tried to back off without making it look too suspicious, or apparent that I thought she was a gifted. The wilwa lynch had to be wolf driven, and good news is tomorrow I have absolutely nothing to do (besides work for a few hours in the morning).

So, after the start of the NFL season today, I shall return.

[Brinniel]

Urgh, this is really frustrating. I'm feeling quite stunned as I was so sure this time wilwa was a baddie and now I find I was wrong...gah, I'm very confused now. Obviously I need to go back and re-examine everyone; toDay we can't take anything for granted.

I'm also thinking of taking the I will lynch-vote you if you have less than 10 posts today because it is crucial to have everyone making a contribution so the wolves can slip and so that the innocents can work together. If you aren't contributing (unless you have serious RL issues) then you don't deserve your win. [/emo-rant]
I do agree it's annoying to have players who don't contribute much, but I hope you don't take that route and vote for someone just because they don't post much. We can't afford to risk that toDay as we won't know whether someone isn't posting due to RL issues or because they are just lurking. Contribution is a factor, but voting based on suspicious behaviour is even more important.

[satansaloser2005]

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)


Well, people, we more or less have to get this right toDay. Our ranger is out and about, but there's no guarantee that she'll get the save right. Heaven knows she's not gotten one right yet.:rolleyes: But enough self-deprication and demotivation. Let's discuss!

*runs off to make a vote tally of DOOM to analyze*

[McCaber]

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)
Good morning to you, too.

Well, I should be around for most of the Day for once, so that's a good thing. And since we've got the preliminary "three of us are wolves" posts out of the way, I can get straight to business. wilwa either aimed at Boro and he was guarded (probably not, but I had to say it), or at an innocent. I should go through her posts yesterDay and see if anyone can tell who was Hunted, because there's probably a hint or two in there.

But hey, I'm not dead yet, so that's another good thing. Woo.

[satansaloser2005]

Good morning to you, too.

*hugs you*

Sorry, but you must understand. Besides, it's not like I'm writing a petition to hang you up by your toes, cover you in hot sauce, and tell Phantom you're a very large hot wing.

....

....

....

Yet.


*toddles off to do vote stuff*

[Nienna]

Nilp: Edited for Smiles... again.

Hammers and pebbles.
Some baubles for a penny.
Won't you vote for me?

[lynch vote]++Nilpaurion Felagund[/lynch vote]

Self vote… typical Nilp I do believe.

The one who protects
No need to reveal himself.
A fish in the sea,
Unless the sharks are lucky,
In our numbers he'll be safe.

Against ranger revealing.

It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me.

This is interesting… doesn’t want to be caught.

^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not.

This is the first time he mentions ‘you’ not being around tomorrow… it just strikes me as weird.

-------------------
|........................|
|......WOLF!!!......|
|........................|
-------------------

EDIT: clumsy fingers

… Flag trying to get us to lynch him…

^ Dunno if painting that red would be legal and all (see glossary: HIGHLIGHTING) so I won't, but it's a pretty flag, ain't it?

Lynch me pl0x.

(All right, seriously, I'll be gone now, just stole comp time while the parents are out watching soaps.)

More attempts at being lynched… but then he adds all right, seriously… so maybe he doesn’t want to be lynched…

Too easy?

Yes it was…

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

Notes the merit of the wolves only killing one… possibly the wolf who came up with the plan?

Then again, I'm not able to make much out of our single *chortles* lead. Except that Mnemo was smart enough to come up with that plan. But she wasn't exactly quiet, was she? She polarised the village along two lines: those in favour, and those opposing. (Plus the usual slackers, but they're always there, so they don't count. )

Then again, nobody voted for her, nobody suspected her.

Theorizing on why Mnemo was killed.

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609625&postcount=169) that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

Helpful, wary of Zil

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

Thinks Hakon is innocent but without saying much about it.

Vote time, I guess. My brother wants the comp soon.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

[lynch vote]++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

And:

++wilwarin538.

I hope to be back in a few hours, but don't count on it. *mutters rebelliously about 6am DAY deadlines*

Good vote choices.

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things. We had a full DAY's vote (save two villagers), we had someone propose a bold plan (and the supporters and detractors thereof). There are lots of other things to look at, village, and we're spending too much time scrutinising but a part of it. Think about that.

*fondly remembers the times he has been tied to the stake just to test theories*

Is being quite helpful and reminding us that we don’t know Legate’s role just because of the guard vote thing… possible wolf setting himself up to look good later on.

Bah, humbug.

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty. That's good, fellow villagers.

Why Lommy, though? Well, the only thing I can come up with is that there were only three non-Legate voters: himself, her, and . . . me. Paint a bulls-eye at me, will you? And on a bloody weekend, at that?

Be back with a lynch tally. *gags*

Thinks he will be suspected and yet no one does.

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
Oh, there were four of us?
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.

Talks about vote intentions without really ever getting into it.

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.

There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.

Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609609&postcount=154). It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609478&postcount=60); furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Logical conclusion.

The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

Logical conclusion.

Logical conclusion.

Logical conclusion.

The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Legate as test case.

During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609517&postcount=84), and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609622&postcount=166). The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609547&postcount=108) and this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609586&postcount=132) his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609513&postcount=80); however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609515&postcount=82), before the time of Nogrod's statement.


The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609546&postcount=107). He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609619&postcount=163), after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609554&postcount=111).

This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:
Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.

A creative way of giving most people’s reasons for voting as they did.

Phew.

Right, you got your dates horribly screwed up, but whatever. It's DAY 1 and DAY 2, for crying out loud.

Adam, you're not in this game.

So sue me.

I shall, soon as I get a large enough needle.

Anyway, the only person I can trust in this village right now is Boro, so:

++Boromir88

The 'anomalies detected in some of the villagers' that I mentioned in my conclusion is mainly Inziladun and his posting. Having never played with him before, I do not know his playing style, therefore I do not have a basis for comparison. But reading them it seems he's at the edge of the crowd surrounding Legate, not really supporting them, but not being indifferent to it either. It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway (q.v. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609880&postcount=333)), which is, of course, how a Werewolf would have treated someone they set up. Add to that my unalleviated suspicion from the previous DAY, he'll be the recipient of my vote again toDAY.

[lynch vote]++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

How come you didn't use those Latin abbreviations in your travesty of a white paper?

Oh, do be quiet. I'm tired, and I had to skip lunch for that. Be back the next DAY, Eru willing.

Votes to lynch Zil and protect Boro.

Here we go again.

Do my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

A tad bit defensive when I asked him for a little more information on people.

I was not convinced of his complete innocence, but, as I said in that big thing *waves vaguely* he's the only one to make a proper case against Legate. He didn't just say, 'Oh, but Legate, we have to lynch you to explain this headscratcher away', unlike what most of you did.

Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

Lynch tallies.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

DAY 1:

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

DAY 2:

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil- 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

DAY 3:

+10:15 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+17:28 Nerwen - Zil (Zil - 2)
+19:42 Zil - Brinn (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+20:29 Nogrod - abstain (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+21:56 Nienna - Zil (Zil - 3, Brinn - 1)
+21:59 wilwa - Zil (Zil - 4, Brinn - 1)
+22:31 Brinn - Zil (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1)
+22:52 Greenie - Sally (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1)
+23:40 Pitchwife - Boro (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1)
+23:51 Hakon - Nienna (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1, Nienna - 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa, Shastanis Althreduin, McCaber, Boromir88

Vote tallies… good but without any thoughts attached.

Right. So. Since my analysis from the previous DAY still seems to be relevant toDAY, I shall post it here.

One of my best clues for catching Werewolves is the intention behind the vote. Not the given one, but what he actually wishes to accomplish with his vote, which is determined by the recipient, time it was cast, whether it created a tie or broke one, etc. A Werewolf would not put his fellow at unnecessary risk by casting a vote for him when there's a chance that he would be lynched as a result, and there is also a chance that an innocent can be lynched. That being said, it is a pity that Inziladun has participated in two fatal bandwaggons, where it has indeed been proven that the recipients of his votes are innocent, albeit dead ones. However it is to be noted that on DAY 1 he cast a vote for Boro to be Night Guarded, where there was still a chance that Boro might end up 'winning'. (Facts: Inziladun voted almost 3 hours before the deadline, putting Boro in solo second with 2 votes, behind Legate with 3. There were still 12 votes left to be cast.) Had Boro been Night Guarded, and there had been one kill the next NIGHT, would there have been any doubt as to Boro's fate?

Therefore, Boromir88 is 99% innocent to me. Only the Seer can correct me now, and she, unfortunately, is already dead.

On DAY 2 Inziladun cast a vote for Nogrod to be Night Guarded. He was at the end of a bandwaggon (he was 6th to vote), and it was nearly at the end of the DAY (5 minutes before the deadline). Now, the Werewolves do not know for certain what our reaction to a second one-kill NIGHT would have been, despite already having poisoned that well with Legate's body. Therefore having a fellow Night Guarded is still a risky proposition. However the vote's placement still allows for a possible Wolf-on-Wolf. Had Nogrod been lynched the next DAY, and had he turned out to be a Werewolf, then Inziladun would have looked good.

I have no conclusion on Nogrod's innocence or guilt based on Inziladun's vote, and will have to resort to other methods.

Brinniel was the only one to receive Inziladun's vote and survive. Take note that there were not votes for Brinn then, indeed hardly any suspicion. So why? Despite the two votes against him there were no indication that the bandwaggon would have been successful; therefore it would have been better to have voted for someone with suspicion. I have not yet analysed Brinn's voting/posting, something I hope to rectify later, so my only sign so far points against her.

Up-to-date analysis to follow.

Good thoughts on Boro’s innocence and Brinn needing to be looked at a bit closer.

Um, well, there are some people who seem to be blocked out my radar. Isabellkya was one, until recently. Another one is Greenie, all apologies to her. Good thing she has but a few posts, making this a quick analysis. Notes:

DAY 1: (36 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609447&postcount=36)) Disagreed with the Plan.
(95 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609529&postcount=95), 120 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609564&postcount=120), 138 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609592&postcount=138)) Seemed to have homed in on Nogrod.
DAY 2: (218 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609737&postcount=218)) Logical conclusion to the Legate question.
(290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609834&postcount=290)) Voted for Nogrod to be Night Guarded.
DAY 3: (411 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610028&postcount=411)) Posted a list with a lot of unknowns (including Inziladun).
(436 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610061&postcount=436)) Voted for Sally when it was almost certainly impossible that she would be lynched. (The same, however, could have been said of me on DAY 2.)
DAY 4: (482 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610185&postcount=482)) Posted a new list, flipflopping on Hakon's innocence and moving Nogrod from Creepy to Unknown.

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?

Cos humans are only human.

Umm… brings up a player definitely not playing… not sure why… possibly confusion. Analysis of Greenie which doesn’t paint her in the best of light.

McCaber has less posts than most of the dead (non-modfired) villagers.

DAY 1: (111 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609554&postcount=111)) Described the possibility of a bluff with a Night-Guarded innocent and a one-kill NIGHT with startling prescience.
(141 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609595&postcount=141)) Voted for wilwa for 'silly discussion on the previous page.' (wilwa had no posts on the previous page, and her posts on the page before that is regarding the details and possible problems of the Plan, hardly silly discussion in my opinion. Take note that this was also the DAY Mnemo voted for wilwa due to her 'crack theory.')
(null) Did not vote for anyone to be Night Guarded. (As did I, but only because I do not wish to spoil my beautiful self-vote. :D )
DAY 2: (198 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609699&postcount=198)) 'We have time for a Legate lynch toDay.' But observe his vote later that DAY.
(305 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609850&postcount=305)) Summarised a DAY 'more interesting than I had originally wanted.'
(319 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609866&postcount=319)) Guard vote for Nogrod, vanilla reasons. Lynch vote for Inziladun, despite his comments about a 'Legate lynch earlier.'
DAY 3: (368 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609967&postcount=368)) 'Told you so' statement. Made a roundabout declaration of innocence by stating that all four Wolves must have been in the Legate bandwaggon.
(435 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610059&postcount=435)) Believed Nogrod to be innocent. Commented on the Werewolves possible thought processes. (Him speaking about submarines as possible Werewolves, when it can be said that he is, in fact, one, points to intellectual honesty. Or a moment of boldness.) Commented on the long-dead Plan.
DAY 4: (514 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610226&postcount=514)) Comments on Hakon and Pitchwife. Created distance with the Hakon bandwaggon again.
(null) No vote.

The most striking point against McCaber is his DAY 2 actions. We have his changing intentions regarding Legate, first saying that we have time to lynch him, and then when it seemed that his vote was no longer needed to lynch him, voted for someone else (a fellow Werewolf). To look good when saying 'I told you so'? To cover himself in case Inziladun gets lynched (which did happen eventually)? Lacking more concrete suspects, and since I might have no time to go back and post it--also, no time to read his rebuttal of my suspicions --I shall cast my vote for him. As in now:

[lynch vote]++McCaber[/lynch vote]

and

++Boromir88.

Analyse the data yourself. You'll believe me when I say he's innocent.

Interesting thoughts on McCaber then a lynch vote for him and a guard vote for Boro.

Analysis of the others with more posts will have to come tomorrow, provided you or I am still alive by then.

Another mention of ‘you’ being alive toMorrow…

On the whole I’m still on the fence about Nilp. I’m not really sure how a Nilp-wolf acts and if this is anything like that. He has been logical and maybe a little bit too perfect. Something is just rubbing me the wrong way…

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All right, what happened yesterDAY?

Four quick votes for wilwa near DAY's end. Three wolves left. Anyone wants to tell me what was up with that? Sally? Nienna? Brinn?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Five innocents vs three Werewolves. We need to get one toDAY.

If we lynch the Ranger, we lose.

If we lynch an Ordo, it's 75% chance of them winning (killing the one not protected by the Ranger.)

If one of the innocents vote for a fellow innocent, all three can sneak a vote for the poor person and at worst have a coin's flip chance of winning the vote.

If there is a time to use that retraction, it's now. We need just two lynch candidates toDAY, so we won't have the Werewolves suddenly having a voting majority.

Sally voting early . . . that's two strikes for her. (Then again, a Werewolf would prefer to hold xyr vote in reserve rather than going first. But xe can also use a retraction.)

Damn it, I guess I'll have to try to stay up late for this . . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Boro's the only person I trust in this village. Can you hold your vote in reserve in case there's some voting shinenigans near the end?

(Sorry for the floodposting, only got the net back a few minutes ago after losing it for more than a DAY. :o )

[Boromir88]

Boro's the only person I trust in this village. Can you hold your vote in reserve in case there's some voting shinenigans near the end?


I don't see why not, but it is a little unsettling as to why you have so much trust in me.

Dah, nah, nah, nah, nah...Swineman! Swineman! Oh you have to love the late nighters. :rolleyes:

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Inziladun Guard-voted for you three hours before DAY 1 ended. A Werewolf would not take unnecessary risk in having a fellow Night Guarded.

Nienna I thought was an innocent who's making sure nobody stays hidden, making cases against other villagers and such, but after yesterDAY she might just be spreading suspicion evenly throughout the village, helping the Werewolves hide in the general aura of suspicion.

Brinniel's posts are too clean, so little to read there. My only points against her are Inziladun's DAY 3 vote and yesterDAY's bandwaggon, but they are, I believe, strong enough points for me not to trust her.

Sally's always been hard to read for me, as she seems to be able to sustain whatever insanity I use up in DAY 1. For that reason I've always been getting evil vibes from her, almost always wrongly. But again, after yesterDAY's bandwaggon, and now her early vote . . .

My major points against McCaber are his DAY 2 change of attitude towards Legate and his general hiddenness. I have this creepy feeling that most of our Werewolves are submarines. I have the same feeling of uneasiness with Greenie, even though I have no other points of suspicion against her.

Pitchwife is a clueless innocent or a very bold Werewolf. I'm inclined to think the former, but there's enough doubt that I do not trust him to cast the possible saving vote for the village.

I think that's all of them? I may have issues with some of your posting, Boro (happily no major ones), but the fact is that Inziladun vote convinced me enough in your innocence. Is that good enough?

[Boromir88]

I just went through Inzil's posts again, wow has he left absolutely nothing. Anyone he rarely defended anyone, and most people who he did interact with are dead.

The live ones then that Inzil had some kind of interaction with.

Nienna in #235 and #239, looks a little odd, he basically bluntly calls her a wolf and jokes that she will kill him during the night.

In #406 he says that Nilp has a cunning mind and he responds to Pitch

In #412 he says he almost wanted to vote for Nilp, but decides to vote Brinn and guard Pitch.

Inzil's track record on Day 1 and 2 were to vote for innocents (Kitanna and Legate) and guard innocents (me and Nogrod)...I'm innocent at this point you'll have to believe me or not.

Unknowns are on Day 3 vote for Brinn and guard Pitch. Inzil has had to of interacted with one wolf, if not multiple ones, but the problem is he played very tight to the vest and limitted the number of people he mentioned.

Another interesting thing to note about Inzil's behavior, is after my suspicions of him on Day 1, he comes back and jokes around if I've had anything to do with Mnemo's death. After Nienna and Nilp go after him, he turns into a jokester again towards them. So, that makes Nienna and Nilp look pretty innocent to me. Usually, I take a joking towards other players as a suspicious sign, but it should really depend upon the players (evidence sally and my performance in Lari's game, which was an utter disaster).

However, I think Inzil's reactions to Nienna's suspicions make Nienna look innocent:
Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.~#257
I've used this as a wolf, and seen it many times from other wolves..."What? Oh, I wasn't suspecting you, me calling you a wolf was all a misunderstanding."

From the unknowns that Inzil interacted with, from most suspicious to least:

Pitch
Brinn
Nilp
Nienna

I will get to what all the living players said about Inzil sometime after work.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Words. I'm more of a numbers guy, though. :D

So my thoughts in summary:

Will not vote for:
Boro
Pitchwife
Green

Might not vote for, but keeping an eye on:
Brinniel
Nienna

Wil most likely vote for:
McCaber
Sally

What do we do with the Guard vote, btw? In case we get a Werewolf today do we risk keeping the Ranger from doing xyr NIGHT work? (I'm inclined not to vote Guard toDAY, but am willing to listen to someone else's plan.)

[Boromir88]

Oh and that leave the living ones who Inzil had no interaction with at all (or nothing major that struck my attention)

sally
McCaber
Greenie

I said a while ago about how out of all the Legate and Nogrod guard votes the only repeat was wilwa, which made me think that the wolves were playing really spread apart from eachother, not trying to leave any connections. So, the 3 listed here also look mighty suspicious, just based on Inzil not mentioning them.

We'll see about their posts too. Nienna and Nilp, since I feel good about you right now, mind if we split up sally's votes? There is no way I'm going to be able to get through all of them I don't care how much free time I have tomorrow.

[A Little Green]

Whoa. YesterDay really took me by surprise. When I went to bed two hours before DL the situation was McCaber with two votes and Pitch and Sally with one, and people were talking about how suspicious Pitch was. When I went to check the thread I expected to find McCaber or Pitchwife lynched. I was stunned to see it was Wilwa - I don't think she was even considered an option two hours before DL! That was some serious bit of last-minute bandwaggoning, I'd say.

Actually, I wonder if the wolves orchestrated that. If so, why? If those in danger of getting lynched (McCaber, Pitchwife, Sally to some extent) were all innocent, why bother? Therefore, if the bandwagon was manipulated by a wolf, it would make sense that one of the potential lynchees was one too.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Might McCaber have been wilwa's Hunter target yesterDAY?

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610347&postcount=576

Aside from the obvious (she thought he's a Wolf, so she voted for him), notice the arrow sign. She usually uses the Silmaril sign in her posts (when she's not beginning with a quote).

Grasping at straws much?

If we lynch an innocent toDAY, it's game over. I have to be sure that the recipient of my vote is a Werewolf.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Actually, I wonder if the wolves orchestrated that. If so, why? If those in danger of getting lynched (McCaber, Pitchwife, Sally to some extent) were all innocent, why bother? Therefore, if the bandwagon was manipulated by a wolf, it would make sense that one of the potential lynchees was one too.That's what I was thinking, too. The Werewolves might have started using their numbers to their advantage with that last-minute bandwaggon, when they saw an opening due to the vote spread.

This is why we must spread our votes as little as possible toDAY. We do not want giving the Werewolves the chance to use their numbers again.

[A Little Green]

Another thing that just popped into my mind, just wondering if it's too crazy to be true. If a wolf saw that his fellow is in danger of getting lynched, why wouldn't he just make a bandwagon against someone who had already received votes? What I'm saying is, what if both Pitchwife and McCaber are wolves and that is why the third wolf decided to start a bandwagon against Wilwa instead? *off to check that bandwagon for candidates for the third wolf in my theory*

[A Little Green]

Hmm. The third wolf, if my theory holds water, would be either Brinn or Nienna. Brinn was the one to bring up a big case against Wilwa, to explain why exactly she felt suspicious about her. Nienna jumped in and suggested a Wilwa lynch. Out of those two, I think Nienna looks the worse. Rather like a wolf seeing a sudden chance in Brinn's big Wilwa-post and seizing it. It would make more sense than a wolf Brinn making a very long post analysing Wilwa's posts quite close to DL seemingly in response to someone's question about why she suspected her in order to save her fellows. The problem is, if Nienna is a wolf we might well be dealing with a new WW mastermind since she has looked so so so so innocent all the time.

So: according to my theory the wolves would be McCaber, Pitchwife and Nienna. I'm quite doubtful still, I should probably try and analyse the interactions between these three and see if it fits. Right now, though, I need to go and study English grammar. Blah.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All right, the more I read the post I mentioned, the more I believe wilwa tried to hunt McCaber. So most likely I'll not vote for him toDAY.

And the more I read yesterday's posts the more Nienna becomes suspicious to me.

I wonder why Nerwen and not Nog or Nilp? Nerwen was trusted by some but recently it seemed as if more people trusted Nog and Nilp. Thoughts?Trying to get people suspicious with the two of us? If you're the Werewolf of course you'd know why Nerwen was killed . . .

Nog: I thought that post pretty self-explanatory. At the time I didn't really know where her suspicion of Wilwa was coming from. Today I have asked and found out so am now feeling better about Brinn and worse about Wilwa.Sniffing the air for signs of a bandwaggon? Perhaps the pack (or some of them) got the Hunter-clues wilwa left behind and tried to get her lynched instead of wasting a NIGHT kill. I don't know if Brinn's been unwittingly used as a bird-dog or a co-conspirator; I'm inclined to think the latter. However she was suspicious of wilwa even before this DAY, which attenuates my suspicion towards her. But not by much.

I'd be game for last minute Wilwa lynch. She has just been a little off and looking at others opinions of her I think the same... I'm not entirely comfortable voting for Pitchwife or McCaber right now...Here we go. Setting up the whole thing. Her vote for wilwa follows (along with Nogrod's and Brinn's, not five minutes apart.)

Why kill Nogrod, though? Nog's a part of that sudden bandwaggon, and would therefore be suspicious the next DAY . . . (Come to think of it, 'twas Nienna who first pointed out that the Guard tally was miscounted--the Night Guard shifted from Nogrod to Boro, who would have been a better kill candidate in this scenario. Why, though? It would have been better if they did not point it out . . . Blast, I've just created reasonable doubt in my own case.

Perhaps it would have been noticed by someone else, anyway, and pointing it out herself helps her cover. Perhaps killing Nogrod would have helped make her (them if Brinniel and/or Sally's part of the pack) look innocent in a roundabout way. A bluff to the effect of, 'See? Nogrod who voted for wilwa is innocent. The whole thing's an innocent mistake.' But . . . I dunno. :confused: )

*Bangs head against wall*

I take full responsibility for Wilwa's death. I'm terribly sorry... I was worried about another Hakon-like lynch with McCaber and Brinn and Boro had made some good points against Wilwa... I totally second guessed myself and that sucks.

A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
McCaber
Nienna
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
satansaloser2005

In this list are 3 wolves. We need to lynch one today or we are pretty much doomed.

I'm thinking there is a wolf in either McCaber or Pitchwife and the other two between Nilp, Greenie, and Brinn.

*Wonders if there will be people posting today*

I'm also thinking of taking the I will lynch-vote you if you have less than 10 posts today because it is crucial to have everyone making a contribution so the wolves can slip and so that the innocents can work together. If you aren't contributing (unless you have serious RL issues) then you don't deserve your win. [/emo-rant]Takes full responsibility for wilwa's death. Haha, does that mean Brinniel is not part of the pack? Interesting that Sally was not mentioned in her possible wolf groups . . .

All in all, perhaps this was all a slip from Nienna's otherwise perfect Werewolf performance, probably induced by their proximity to a victory. But that thing with the Night Guard tally error and the NIGHT kill . . . *sigh* Does not compute.

[Nienna]

Though I would love to have a perfect ww performance it is not at all true. As an ordo my last minute jump onto Wilwa was terrible and I know that. This is not at all how I act as a wolf and after the last game where I won as a wolf I think I'd stay with what seems to be working.

Right before deadline yesterday I was frustrated and confused and was basically like "whatever something needs to happen" and I didn't want to be part of the Hakon-like McCaber lynch... though maybe it would have been better because then we would still have our Hunter.

Greenie is worrying me the most today. I'll go through some of her posts as well as some of Sally's though I'm pretty sure Sally is an innocent.

[McCaber]

All right, the more I read the post I mentioned, the more I believe wilwa tried to hunt McCaber. So most likely I'll not vote for him toDAY.
That's what I picked up on, too, but I couldn't really say it given the situation.

I just had a discouraging thought. If an innocent votes for another ordinary villager, the game is lost. So it could be over already, depending on the alignments of sally and I. Rather a disturbing thing to wake up to, no?

Anyway, I'm back.

[Nienna]

Oh and PS about the guard vote mistake: I was counting the votes wondering who would be guarded and saw that Boro had more. When Mayor Steve posted that Nog was being saved I was very confused. So I asked. I also put that he was allowed to not answer me. If he didn't count Sally's vote then this would mean that there could be people who's votes aren't counting and it would have been interesting to discuss. So I wanted to know if it was a mistake and if it was then it needed to be fixed regardless of the people's roles and if it wasn't then it was something that could be talked about.

Edit: Ex-ed with McCaber

[Boromir88]

McCaber on Inzil, nothing much to be honest. He votes for Inzil Day 2 (interesting enough the Day when it's pretty clear Legate will be lynched. However, I can't find any reason why Inzil was his "top suspect" for the 1st 2 days.
It seems some of the biggest points against me are voting for Inzil twice, both when he was in no danger of being lynched.~#590
Problem is McCaber, you only voted for Inzil once. You voted wilwa on Day 1.

The most suspicious thing about McCaber, is his back and forth about Legate:

This is from Day 1:
Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

[Boromir88]

In the post above I accidentally hit enter when I didn't mean to. So, I will just continue. Then Day 2 McCaber changes his tune:

In 198
Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.
Saying a Legate lynch would be good today, despite the day before saying the wolves could easily manipulate the guard vote?

In 305
Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.
Pointing out that everyone except Legate seems to believe Legate is guilty, but McCaber stays back and plays it cautiously, saying he won't argue either way.

In #319 he then says he can't vote for Legate, based on what he pointed out on Day 1, so he votes Inzil...and this is a vote he would know full well would not pick up any steam. Since, Day 2, it was clear Legate was going to be lynched.

In #368, brags about being correct on Legate:
Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

In #514 he suspects Hakon, but defends Pitch:
Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.
But then in #590, after calling Pitch geniune he stays away from the Hakon wagon, and votes Pitch in #591.

Flip-flopping back and forth about people is one thing, but how does Pitch go from geniune to a vote? Your voting McCaber has appeared to be conscious attempts to stay out of lynching innocents. Day 1, it was wilwa, Day 2 it was Inzil when it was clear Legate would be lynched, and Day 4 you steer from the Hakon wagon, to vote for someone you thought was genuinely innocent?

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, I'm here but I can't stay. Got suddenly handed an assignment at work so I'll be out most of the Day. When I get back I'll try to catch up really quick but I can't promise much. Sorry again. :(

[Nienna]

Sally:

69 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609496&postcount=69): Doesn’t think Mnemo is evil for The Plan but thinks it is cheap or too easy
77 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609509&postcount=77): Wants to catch ww the ‘old fashioned way’ but wouldn’t think poorly on The Plan later in the game
96 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609530&postcount=96): Up for guarding those who look suspicious
101 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609536&postcount=101): Guards Mnemo for being innovative and wanting to have someone on her team who has a different point of view
115 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609559&postcount=115): Doesn’t like Kit’s guard vote for Hakon… thinks that if she is innocent then it isn’t the best strategy, gives lots of possiblities
117 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609561&postcount=117): Responds to McCaber saying we should be too hasty to lynch someone who was NG if there was only one kill. She thinks that in certain circumstances it would be worth the risk to kill off the NGed if there was only one kill
123 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609568&postcount=123): More about protecting those we trust or those who are suspicious
133 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609587&postcount=133): Mentions that if we guard someone and there are 2 kills then we know that person is an innocent
172 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609628&postcount=172): Votes to lynch Kit at the very last moment
177 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609674&postcount=177): Thinks that Legate is probably a wolf because it seems unlikely that the wolves would give up a kill
266 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609809&postcount=266): Defends her Kit vote, still doesn’t think that the wolves would give up a kill in order to frame Legate, gets bad vibes from Wilwa
277 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609821&postcount=277): Defends her vote some more
Bunch of back and forth between Sally and Legate
339 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609886&postcount=339): Mentions the weird parroting thing between Hakon, McCaber, and Zil, votes to lynch Legate and guard me.
423 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610046&postcount=423): Random mention of Fish….
448 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610075&postcount=448): Guard vote for Shasta at the end of the day but no lynch vote... interesting… the day we lynched a wolf…
494 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610199&postcount=494): Defends her vote for Shasta and kicks herself for tying things up further (aka the 3 person tie)
518 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610230&postcount=518): Analysis of McCaber – finds him a top suspect
537 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610253&postcount=537): Analysis of Hakon – finds him evil
541 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610257&postcount=541): Hesitant in joining a bandwagon
557 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610273&postcount=557): Would rather see Hakon dead than Wilwa so lynch votes Hakon
609 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610409&postcount=609): Defends her vote to Brinn
613 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610415&postcount=613): Considering a Wilwa lynch
629 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610433&postcount=629): Late vote to lynch Wilwa and guard Nog
635 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610478&postcount=635): Very early lynch vote for McCaber

Sally: you confuse me. I’ve spent a good portion of the game thinking that you are innocent but now I’m second guessing myself. This is not good… I think that it is safe to leave you alive another day… I hope. What is most bothering is your early vote… bah.

[Nienna]

Oh thought I should mention that those aren't all of Sally's posts. I went through quickly and pulled the one's I thought important. Someone else might want to go through them as well.

[satansaloser2005]

What is most bothering is your early vote… bah.

Yeah, I really am sorry about that. I knew I'd be busy around DL and didn't want to forget (or not be able to vote, the way my internet's been acting lately) so I didn't have much choice. And now it looks like I won't be around most of the day anyway. :(


Have to go now. Back as soon as I can.

[Boromir88]

Greenie and Brinn will follow after lunch and a trip to the store.

[McCaber]

Well, in the one game that I absolutely should not be lynched, look what happened. I guess now is as good a time as any. I am the ranger. I know, I've been doing a terrible job as far as the guarding goes. Here's a list of the people I tried to save:

Boro
Little Green
Nilp
Nogrod
Brinn

Nerwen was my second choice the night she was killed, and I spent quite a while thinking about that one. And then when Nog bit it the day after, it wasn't a good thing at all.

The night that the sun rose early, I guarded Nilp. Just on the off chance that it actually was a save and not something like the wolves not sending in a kill or one of those other special abilities.

I led off with Boro, because he's always a target, and the quicker I can figure him out the easier game I would have had. Greenie was more or less a random pick, and Nilp and Nog were because the wolves had been targeting people who were making solid contributions and throwing things around. Brinn I chose because I knew the wolves probably were going to kill Nog, so I wanted my next night to be open for someone I thought to be innocent. Not that I'm throwing any heavy suspicion her way, I just thought there are at least two people here I see as more innocent than her.

I do realize I have one vote already, so I'm taking a very large risk here. Talia jacta est.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, in the one game that I absolutely should not be lynched, look what happened. I guess now is as good a time as any. I am the ranger. I know, I've been doing a terrible job as far as the guarding goes. Here's a list of the people I tried to save:

Boro
Little Green
Nilp
Nogrod
Brinn

Nerwen was my second choice the night she was killed, and I spent quite a while thinking about that one. And then when Nog bit it the day after, it wasn't a good thing at all.

The night that the sun rose early, I guarded Nilp. Just on the off chance that it actually was a save and not something like the wolves not sending in a kill or one of those other special abilities.

I led off with Boro, because he's always a target, and the quicker I can figure him out the easier game I would have had. Greenie was more or less a random pick, and Nilp and Nog were because the wolves had been targeting people who were making solid contributions and throwing things around. Brinn I chose because I knew the wolves probably were going to kill Nog, so I wanted my next night to be open for someone I thought to be innocent. Not that I'm throwing any heavy suspicion her way, I just thought there are at least two people here I see as more innocent than her.

I do realize I have one vote already, so I'm taking a very large risk here. Talia jacta est.

:eek::rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

Present and catching up.

[Nienna]

This definitely makes things more interesting... we shall see if there are any counter-reveals. This definitely gives us some more stuff to talk about. McCaber do you have thoughts on people?

[satansaloser2005]

Meh, let's kill him anyway. It's probably been a while since a village had a full set of lynched gifteds.:rolleyes:


Aka

--Cabbie


*headdesks, eats lunch, gets ready to head out again*

[McCaber]

:eek::rolleyes:
And that's why I don't vote early.
McCaber do you have thoughts on people?
Well, I've been thinking that Nilp's innocent since about Day 2. Boro looks pretty ok, and Brinn I completely failed to read, so I saw her as a "disposable choice", if you will. Someone to waste time on until a better option opened up.

[Boromir88]

Brinn looks pretty good, I really like #530, she has a large list of suspects. Maybe she was just throwing anything out to see what sticks, but, small, focused on the minimum number of people is very suspicious, and that has not been Brinn.

Plus her defense against sally, because of her wilwa vote looks innocent.

She was suspicious on Inzil for most of Day 2 and Day 3 and votes for him on Day 3.

I can't fault her for her logic on wanting to lynch Legate, because the same thing was virtually in my mind...I would have smothered myself if we had a wolf-Legate from a guard vote and just let him get a free pass.

Sorry I'm getting terribly sloppy and quick in my comments.

Edit: crossed with a bunches, might as well take a blind shot at someone :rolleyes:

[Boromir88]

Nilp, why won't you consider to vote for Pitch or Greenie?

[Nienna]

Trying to find patterns... I deleted everyone's votes who is no longer alive (except the last day I kept Nog's in because he was important)

DAY ONE:

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Brinn-->Cabbie
Boro-->Kit (2)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Pitchie-->Kit (4)
Nienna-->Dun
Sally-->Kit (6)

Guard:
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Boro-->Nienna
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Pitchie-->Boro (4)

DAY TWO

Lynch
Nilp-->Dun
Boro-->Legate (2)
Greenie-->Legate (4)
Nienna-->Legate (5)
Brinn-->Legate (7)
Pitch-->Legate (8)
Cabbie-->Dun (3)
Sally-->Legate (12)


Guard
Nilp-->Wilwa
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog
Nienna-->Nerwen (2)
Brinn-->Shasta
Pitch-->Nog (2)
Cabbie-->Noggie (3)
Sally-->Nienna

DAY THREE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Dun
Nienna-->Dun (3)
Brinn-->Dun (5)
Greenie-->Sally
Pitchie-->Boro

Guard:
Nilp-->Boro
Nienna-->Shasta
Brinn-->Nerwen (3)
Greenie-->Pitchie (3)
Pitchie-->Shasta (2)
Sally-->Shasta (3)

Day Four

Lynch:
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Boro-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Hakon (3)
Sally--> Hakon (5)
Pitchwife--> McCaber

Guard:
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Sally
Pitchwife--> Nerwen
Brinn--> Nog

Day Five:

Lynch:
Nilp--> McCaber (2)
McCaber--> Pitchwife
Greenie--> Sally
Boro--> Pitchwife (2)
Brinn--> Wilwa
Nienna--> Wilwa (2)
Nog--> Wilwa (3)
Sally--> Wilwa (didn’t count)

Guard:
Nilp--> Boro
McCaber--> Nilp
Greenie--> Nienna
--Greenie-- Nienna
Greenie --> Wilwa
Boro--> Nog
Brinn--> Boro (2)
Nienna--> Nog (2)
Nog--> Boro (3)
Sally--> Nog (didn’t count)

[Nienna]

Evil:
Greenie

Leaning Evil:
Nilp
Pitchwife

No Idea:
Sally
Brinn

Leaning Innocent:
Boro

Innocent:
Nienna
McCaber

[satansaloser2005]

I had a think and came to this conclusion.

Good:
Sally (duh)
Cabbie (apparently)
Nienna

Meh:
Nilp
Boro
Brinn

Evil:
Greenie
Pitchie



I know, I know, my list looks a lot like Nienna's, but hers has nothing to do with mine. If Cabbie's innocent it changes my opinion on Pitch dramatically, and I've thought Greenie rather weird for a while. Wish I could explain more thoroughly, but alas, I can't.


Oh, and although it should be obvious....


++Cabbie

[Pitchwife]

Well, this is a nice mess to come back to. Alas for wilwa, our poor Hunter, and alas for Nogrod!
It hasn't been mentioned yet, but some of you may wonder whether I had a hand in Nog's death for coming after me yesterDay - and if the wolves are indeed trying to frame me, he was a consequent choice for the Night-kill. Truth is, there's no drop of his blood on my hands. I actually appreciated his grilling me and forcing me to explain myself, as it made me think things over and see more clearly, and I really regret he's not around any more to hear me defend myself.
These were the points of suspicion against me he brought forward yesterDay:
1. My Guard vote for Nerwen the Day before yesterDay
When I said 'obviously a good choice' I meant it. She looked innocent to me, and she'd been very reasonable and helpful all game long, so I thought she might well be the wolves' next victim - as indeed she was. Whatever doubts had kept me from Guard-voting her earlier dated back to the time when I suspected Boro, because of connections between them, and had dissolved by then.
2. My suspicion of Boro in #403 and the reasons given
Points 1, 2, 5 and 6 (pity I didn't number them) don't really hold any more, and weren't really crucial back then. What mattered most to me was that he tried very hard to convince us the wolves weren't using the NG for a frame, and his lack of comment after it had become clear they had in fact done so - but I later admitted that this lack may have been due to time issues.
'Creepy' probably was too strong a word to describe my impression of him. The thing is, I actually find it quite easy to trust him and was afraid I might therefore overlook something suspicious, so when I looked at him closely and found what looked to me like some fair reasons to suspect him, it kinda gave me the shivers.
3. My 'please suspect me' post (#432, quoted by Nog in #604)
Case of 'careful what you wish, you might get it'. Well, after my abominable voting on the first two Days, I thought people might have reason to be suspicious of me, and was a little surprised it hadn't happened yet. At the time, of course, I was still deluded enough to think that my defense of Zil was a good idea and I was actually doing better, or I would never have been sarcastic about it.
So in short, I do plead guilty of having made some serious mistakes, but I'm innocent of wolvery.

And now I'd like to concentrate on finding out who the real wolves are. I've not quite digested McCaber's reveal yet, but for the moment I tend to believe him.

[Pitchwife]

The night that the sun rose early, I guarded Nilp. Just on the off chance that it actually was a save and not something like the wolves not sending in a kill or one of those other special abilities.

I think it's clear that no save occurred that Night, as Eönwe said he would mention a save in the narration. So Nilp can't have been the wolves' target - there must be another explanation.
Talking about those secret roles again, I'm wondering whether we're ever going to find out about them. Has anybody else noticed Nog's armour and sword in last Night's narration?

[satansaloser2005]

Good news (for you lot at least). The person I was to interview had to leave town early so I came home and will be here for....another hour or so. But I'll definitely have to vote an hour before DL if not earlier.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Checking in @4AM local. Man, I must be crazy . . .

[Boromir88]

Post #104 is unsettling:
Legate, when you come back, would you mind explaining the reasoning behind your Guarding suggestions (Nerwen and Lommy)? I agree that Nerwen's been rather reasonable in her few posts, Lommy slightly less so from my perspective; I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)
He questions Legate about his guard choices, but asks them why he thinks those two stand out from the others. Looking to hone in on possible gifteds Pitch? Plus you just non-chalantly throw out there you'r innocent so there's no point in guarding you, but would the wolves want to be night-guarded?

In #107 he suspects Kitanna for the reasons given by me and Nerwen.

#113:
Kit, just when I've reluctantly decided you're my prime suspect, you have to say something I can see sense in (even if I don't agree)!*sigh*
You forgot McCaber, by the way. (Cancel that - he just showed up.)
But you still end up voting for Kitanna. :rolleyes: And if she was your prime suspect why would you have to reluctantly decide it?

#134:
Sally, I think we can safely rule out Kit speculating on actually getting a majority for her Guard Hakon vote when there are several much more promising candidates around. Looks a little bit like a throwaway vote on her part.
But wasn't heard guard Hakon, and guarding the quiet the thing that you said was sensible?

#145:
Dang it, here I go again, wavering and second-guessing myself about my Kit suspicion. Her last post sounds agreeable enough on the surface, but looking closer at it, it seems just a little bit too noncommittal. The reason she gives for her vote for Brinn is a plain case of plagiarism, if I may say so; and however much I disagree with Brinn's own vote myself, I don't find it sufficient to condemn her.
Oh, like your own suspicions against Kitanna were not in fact, plagiarism? *points to #107

Day 2, #285:
Funny how Inzil said wilwa and Nienna seemed to know too much about the wolve's mind, but I don't recall Inzil saying anything towards Pitch about it:
There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.

#311 his 'fellow' Kit voters:
Sally - has been very active and helpful yesterDay and toDay, so I fail to see how her retiring to do tallies for the last hour makes her suspicious (actually, it makes me wonder about Brinn and Nog suspecting her for such a frail reason).
Inzil - if I remember correctly from my other games with him, he behaved somewhat inscrutably both as a wolf and an innocent. I'd like to hear a little more from him, as most of his posts have been rather shortish.
Boro - looks good, all in all.
Nerwen - looks really good.
wilwa - has made some outstanding contributions, especially in her latest post; rather unsuspicious.
Lommy - now that's a hard one. I don't really know what to make of her, and her attempts to defend Legate (unless they have to do with life outside the village) don't sit right with me. But is it really probable she and Legs are wolves together?
Discards Nerwen and Me as simply looking good. Yet has quite a bit to say about Lommy, sally, and Inzil. 1 known innocent, 1 unknown, and 1 known wolf.

His reasons for not suspecting sally has nothing to do with her vote for Kitanna, but her vote tallies. And he turns suspicions on Nog and Brinn for pointing out sally's vote tallies.

He makes no statement of feelings about Inzil at all, the only person in his list of fellow Kit voters, he just wishes to hear more.

#316:
Sorry if you're innocent, but you'll understand we have to find out. (And I do sincerely hope you're not gifted!)
This is what he says when he votes Legate, kind of a wierd statement to make. You can tell us if you were secretly hoping he was gifted, Pitch, go on the truth sets us free.

#373 and #375 is more of Pitch sharing his mind about the wolf kills. Again, how come Inzil never pointed out you seemed to know the wolve's mind very well Pitchers? In both he also defense Inzil, and defends Nogrod.

#391:
That would be very funny indeed - even more if we actually managed to win that way against you veterans! (And NO, that was NOT a confession, of course!)
The truth will set you free.

#403
says Inzil feels wolfish quite early, for what seem to me very flimsy reasons;
supports Mnemo's plan, though cautiously;
says he can't see the wolves wasting a night-kill to frame somebody, and
thinks McCaber needs watching for suggesting they might;
concurs with Nog's suspicion of Lommy;
suspects Kit (which persuaded myself at the time) and votes her;
argues for lynching Legate, dismisses Legate's defense that he was framed (see above!), and votes him;
hasn't said anything notable about the fact that Leg was indeed framed, and says Nog is still suspicious because of the one kill.
Instead of restating what I've done, please point out what it is that made those things make me look suspicious? As I recall, Inzil turned out to be a wolf, my only regret is not following up on a vote for him, or sticking to my guns. His cool reaction was a lot different from the last time I suspected Inzil of wolvery (and was correct).

I persuaded you to vote for Kit? I've taken responsibility for that crapper mistake, while you continue to blame me for persuading you.

What would the point be in actually stating Legate was framed? The reason I suspected Nogrod still, is because I thought after that night when there was one kill, Nogrod immediately came out and tried to pass off he was innocent. However, as I told Nogrod I made an error, it was wilwa and Hakon.

And me agreeing with someone about one of their suspicions is sketchy...because? Weren't you the one who became persuaded to vote for Kitanna, because of me and Nerwen?

The lab I'm at is closing in 10 minutes, I'll head back and finish Pitch in a bit.

[satansaloser2005]

Checking in @4AM local. Man, I must be crazy . . .

GO TO BED, CHILD!!!!:eek:



EDIT: x'd with Boro. Also, I'm really tired for some reason, so if I disappear it's 'cause I fell asleep for a bit.

[Pitchwife]

It just occurred to me - among the surviving wilwa voters (those whose vote counted), Brinn and Nienna can't both be wolves. Both of them contributed to Zil's lynching on Day 3 (Brinn giving him the third vote, Nienna the fifth), and I can see one wolf doing that, but hardly two. Nienna's vote, late in the bandwagon when Zil already looked like a lost case, seems more suspicious to me.
As for Greenie - she joined forces with my misguided effort to avoid lynching Zil, and voted to Guard me on the same Day (following Zil's example?). I don't quite know what to make of this. As a wolf who found me useful, she would have known I was in no danger of being Night-killed. So, Greenie, did you honestly believe we were right (as I did) ?

(x-ed from Nilp #677 onwards)

[Boromir88]

The good news is I've divided the remaining players into 2 groups based on how they've interacted with eachother and the wolf Inzil.

Pitch
Greenie
Nilp

Pitch and Greenie were both very defensive of Inzil, and Nilp is pretty much saying he will not vote for Greenie or Pitch. Plus Inzil had very little interaction between the 3 of them.

Brinn
Nienna
Sally

Brinn and Nienna went after and sealed Inzil's fate and Inzil jokingly suspected them, and sally is just thrown in there because I really have no clue.

So far, I'm thinking the first group are more likely Inzil's partners, the way the night guard votes have spread out and no one clearly following someone, I think the wolves were trying to separate themselves as much as possible.

*However, sally and Nilp are interchangeable in my opinion.

Just thought I'd throw out what I'm currently thinking, now back to Pitch.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilp, why won't you consider to vote for Pitch or Greenie?Reasonable doubt about their Wolvishness. I don't have enough suspicion of them to vote for them over other people. That list is willing to change, though, depending on my analyses. For example, I'm unwilling to vote for McCaber now (duh); Sally, Nienna or Brinn are the ones I'm most likely to vote. Still reading and analysing a lot, though, cos I have to be sure.

[Nienna]

Greenie:
36 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609447&postcount=36): Thinks there would be more to loose than gain if the seer revealed. Worried about Mnemo
39 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609450&postcount=39): Asks Nilp why he voted for himself
43 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609454&postcount=43): Says that she is not someone who one would want to get on bad terms with
95 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609529&postcount=95): Suspicious of Nog for his suspicion of Lommy
99 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609534&postcount=99): Would rather vote for someone with suspicion than a random vote or a vote for someone not contributing
102 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609537&postcount=102): Doesn’t like Day One’s, defends her mid-day chats
120 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609564&postcount=120): Is feeling ok about Mnemo now and defends herself, is still suspicious of Nog
138 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609592&postcount=138): Lynch votes Nog and guards me but mentions that she isn’t throwing away her guard vote completely… this is odd.
218 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609737&postcount=218): Doesn’t think the wolves would give up their kill so will probably vote Legate.
290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609834&postcount=290): Mentions some possibilities for if Legate is innocent and if she doesn’t survive… votes to lynch Legate and guard Nog because he is her second top suspect and if he is innocent he is valuable.
410 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610027&postcount=410): Thinks that even though we can’t be certain of Nog’s guilt we should still pay attention to him … wolf trying to get another easy lynch??, then she doesn’t like Nerwen and her vote for Zil… it looks like she could be trying to get the heat off of her mate.
411 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610028&postcount=411): List: Creepy: Nerwen, Nog, Sally; No Idea: Brinn, Zil, McCaber, Pitchwife, Wilwa; Cuddly: Boro, Hakon, Nienna, Nilp
419 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610041&postcount=419): Asking who others want to lynch
422 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610045&postcount=422): Shies away from looking at Zil and wants to look at Boro instead
436 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610061&postcount=436): Doesn’t want to join the bandwagon so lynch votes for Sally instead
437 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610062&postcount=437): Guards Pitchwife because he is an easy Night target
479 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610178&postcount=479): Congratulates Zil voters, thinks wolves in the Zil bandwagon would be at the beginning and end, wonders about Hakon
482 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610185&postcount=482): List: Leaning Innocent: Boro, Nienna, Nilp, Pitchwife; No Idea: Brinn, McCaber, Nog, Wilwa; Leaning Evil: Hakon, Nerwen, and Sally
484 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610187&postcount=484): Worried that people aren’t taking Nog into account at all.
486 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610189&postcount=486): Talks about the Shasta guard-wagon
505 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610214&postcount=505): Sally creeps her out, flip-flops about Nerwen, Hakon is also being considered for her lynch target
507 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610216&postcount=507): … so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. … this seems off to me… it seems like she is more concerned with their death than their role…
510 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610219&postcount=510): Lynch votes Hakon and guard votes Boro
582 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610365&postcount=582): Defends her flip-flop nature in regards to Nog, then defends avoiding attention saying there isn’t much else she can do short of screaming "Heeeeeeeeeeey I'm a wolf!"
583 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610366&postcount=583): Wonders if a McCaber lynch is too easy
593 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610393&postcount=593): Lynch votes her only real suspect: Sally, guard votes for me but I couldn’t be guarded again so she changed to Wilwa in 595
647 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610494&postcount=647): Wonders if the Wilwa bandwagon was orchestrated by a wolf and if maybe one of the other lynch options was a wolf as well
650 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610497&postcount=650)-651 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=610498&postcount=651): Theory that both Pitchwife and McCaber are wolves, then that would make me a wolf as well

Moral of the Story: I'm pretty sure she's a wolf.

Edit: x-ed with a bunch

[A Little Green]

As for Greenie - she joined forces with my misguided effort to avoid lynching Zil, and voted to Guard me on the same Day (following Zil's example?). I don't quite know what to make of this. As a wolf who found me useful, she would have known I was in no danger of being Night-killed. So, Greenie, did you honestly believe we were right (as I did) ?The Zil thing? Of course I believed we were right. Or rather, I did not trust the Zil wagon and since I had no real read on him I did not want to vote him but voted someone I found evil instead. Obviously I made a mistake about Zil, or at least failed to notice something others did. I guarded you because of the ones that had received guard votes you looked the most genuine to me.

I'm currently at a loss (surprisingly enough :rolleyes:) because my top suspects according to logic are Pitchwife and Nienna who both feel very innocent. Then again, my feel of people is often quite off and I think I'd rather trust my logic this time. It is a truly fatal Day. If we lynch an innocent, it's Game over. That is why I want to make a rational, well thought out vote that will (hopefully) contribute to the death of a werewolf.

Relating to that, I'm curious if the people who find me creepy have any reasons for that. I don't mind people being suspicious of me, as long as they don't lose us the game by lynching me, but I'd prefer to know why so that I can answer to those suspicions. Because, as we all know, the best way of finding out whether someone is really a baddie or just an innocent is actually discussing with that person. Just saying "She creeps me out" doesn't lead to any conclusions on the said person's identity unless lynched. By that time it's too late. We want to consider all options. We just really really can't mess this up toDay, which is why I don't fancy "S/he creeps me out" -style suspicions whether they are about me or someone else.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Nilp and Nienna

[Boromir88]

It's really quite a minor thing about Greenie which worries me the most, it may see insignificant, or trivial, but it's something that wolf-Greenie has done in the past, and the 1st time through I fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

In #411:
Pitchwife - I have a vague memory that I had something to point out about him but can't remember what it was.. So far I really can't say.
This is one of the things that I met to say which stands in Pitch's defense.

I recall a certain wolf-Greenie throwing out a vague comment about how Nilp was suspicious and she forgot why, I read it as a sign that she was a gifted. I fell right into it and began aggressively suspecting Nilp, who wound up being the Ranger.

Her comment about Pitch reminds me of the same thing, a vague throw away comment about something important she had to say about someone, but then forgot.

[Brinniel]

Just to let you know I am here and working on analyses, but it's taking longer than expected so I'll try to speed it up and see how far I get.

[satansaloser2005]

I have to leave in like ten minutes. I'm still not sure who to vote for. :(


(Going to go think about possible wolf packs.)

[Nienna]

We can't afford to split up the vote so keep that in mind.

[Nienna]

McCaber?? Are you still around? Who do you find suspicious?

[satansaloser2005]

Players:
Sally
Brinn
Nienna
Boro
Nilp
Greenie
Cabbie
Pitchie


Wolf pack #1: Greenie, Nilp, Pitchie
Wolf pack #2: Greenie, Nilp, Boro
Wolf pack #3: Greenie, Pitchie, Boro
Wolf pack #4: Greenie, Brinn, Nilp :cool:
Wolf pack #5: Greenie, Boro, Nienna :eek:
Wolf pack #6: Brinn, Pitchie, Boro :cool:
Wolf pack #7: Boro, Nilp, Pitchie
Wolf pack #8: Nilp, Nienna, Brinn
Wolf pack #9: Pitchie, Brinn, Nienna
Wolf pack #10: Pitchie, Brinn, Nilp

So....I guess my top suspects are Greenie, Pitch, and Nilp, more or less in that order. (And I know, it's not clear how I came to that conclusion based on the above list but it kind of makes sense in my head so meh.)

EDIT: x'd with Nienna

[satansaloser2005]

++Greenie



Sorry, but I really have to leave. Wish I could discuss but there's simply not time. I'd recommend (obviously) a Greenie lynch or possibly a Pitch lynch. Either is fine with me, since I think they both have an equal chance of being a wolf.


*dashes off*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.

What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.

[satansaloser2005]

Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.

What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.


Oh bugger, I'd forgotten about that.

[Boromir88]

The only thing I'm banging my head over repeatedly is, despite our best chances ever to get a wolf now than any other day...with wolves so close to winning there is no doubt 1, if not 2, trying to steer our choice to an innocent.

It appears that's what McCaber was going to be set up for today, but to our fortune (or I guess mis-fortune now, at least we can defend him another night) our Ranger is revealed. But if I have this correct, if we guard McCaber, he will not be able to protect anyone, correct?

It still would be better to guard him, that way there is a known innocent the next day, at least I'm assuming now he is who he says he is as now everyone has seen the reveal and no one's countered.

Edit: crossed with Nilp, who wonders the same thing, and I agree.

[McCaber]

I almost don't want to be guarded. I've been doing a terrible job of analysis, and I think giving the village one day (or possibly two, if the wolves are tricksey like that) to sort things out would be the best.

And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.

[A Little Green]

Thanks Nienna! That cleared things up a bit.
Lynch votes Nog and guards me but mentions that she isn’t throwing away her guard vote completely… this is odd.The reasoning behind that was as simple as to guard-vote someone who has already received votes. It's no good if the votes spread out too much. You had already been voted and I thought you seemed innocent and sharp and thus ended up voting you.
Thinks that even though we can’t be certain of Nog’s guilt we should still pay attention to him … wolf trying to get another easy lynch??, then she doesn’t like Nerwen and her vote for Zil… it looks like she could be trying to get the heat off of her mate.Well I still think that though Nog is now proven innocent it was rather alarming how people seemed to forget considering him as an option, since we had, at that time, no evidence whatsoever of his innocence. It would hardly have been pushing for an easy lynch, mentioning the possible wolvery of a player no one suspected. As for Nerwen's vote, my dislike for it was not due to who the vote was directed to but the fact that she voted Zil and pretty much said she hoped others wouldn't follow her in that. Voting someone without wanting others to do so too indicates to not really wanting the death of the person voted which makes me really curious as to why vote that person in the first place. Though Nerwen was innocent and Zil was a wolf I can still relate to that argument.… so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched.
… this seems off to me… it seems like she is more concerned with their death than their role…My bad if it seems like that. I'll try to explain. I suspected both Sally and Hakon, Sally a bit more, but I believed either could be a werewolf. If I believe a person to be a werewolf, I want that person to get lynched rather than someone else. Therefore, I was faced with the problem of choosing between my two suspects: one that I thought a tad more likely to be evil, and the other that had already received a vote so was a more likely lynch candidate. My point in re-explaining my thoughts on this matter is this: an innocent, if s/he feels a player to be guilty, wants that person to get lynched, because the lynch is pretty much an ordinary villager's only weapon in this game. Quite frankly I wanted either Sally or Hakon dead because I suspected them. If it seemed like I was more concerned about their death than their role I'm sorry to have seemed so. But, at that moment I had already made some sort of vague conclusions about their roles - so in a way I was, at that point, concentrating on getting one of them killed. Am I making sense?
Moral of the Story: I'm pretty sure she's a wolf.I'm not a wolf. I can't, however, expect you to believe that. In any case that's quite a heavy conclusion compared to the arguments in your analysis. It's also not an argument, so it can't be answered with one. What you say is a subjective statement I cannot answer in any possible way; what I say is a subjective truth I can't prove to anyone.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Nienna]

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a host

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I almost don't want to be guarded. I've been doing a terrible job of analysis, and I think giving the village one day (or possibly two, if the wolves are tricksey like that) to sort things out would be the best.

And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.However, you are a known innocent. It would be nice to have one less to suspect in the village, especially in this one.

[McCaber]

However, you are a known innocent. It would be nice to have one less to suspect in the village, especially in this one.

That's a fair point.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a hostOh, really now, Wolf?

The Ranger: Each Night the Ranger chooses who they want to save from being killed by the Werewolves. The Ranger cannot save themselves or the same person twice in a row.

[Boromir88]

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a host

That he can, checked the admin thread. :D

In that case, I would feel most comfortable protecting Brinn.

Edit: Nilp, you're not reading the rest of the sentence that you have past the underlining..."The Ranger can not save themselves, or the same person, twice in a row." I take that to mean McCaber can guard himself, just not 2 days in a row...but I would guess McCaber would know that better than the rest of us.

[A Little Green]

Her comment about Pitch reminds me of the same thing, a vague throw away comment about something important she had to say about someone, but then forgot.Honestly now, I hope that even in games where I've been a wolf I haven't been that dishonest! Wolf or no, my brain has a regular leak in it, and I forget stuff all the time. (Again, an argument I can't expect people to believe.) I really think it would be rather unsporty to pretend to have forgotten an argument in order not to have to invent one in the first place, and I don't like it that people actually think I would do that.
And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.Has been chosen?!? One person has voted for me this far. There are eight people in this village. I certainly hope I haven't "been chosen", because, quite frankly, that would mean we've lost the game. I don't even understand why people have nailed me up as a lynch target. I'd understand if I had behaved in a way that would have made me look like a wolf. Yet I haven't seen one single argument against me that actually holds water! This stinks of wolf. An innocent simply doesn't vote without valid arguments on a decisive Day like this. At least I hope so.


EDIT: x-ed with Nilp, McCaber, Nilp and Boro

[Nienna]

Oh, really now, Wolf?

No. McCaber can save himself. Then we will have a known innocent. We can also save someone who we all are seeming to trust giving us TWO people we trust and taking away a KILL from the wolves. All in all it is solid and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably a wolf.

[Brinniel]

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.
This line comes to be a bit strange. Not sure what to think.

I don't agree with Kit's reasoning for guarding Hakon. If she's innocent, it's not the best strategy (in my opinion it's better to protect people who aren't simply MIA, though I'm sure Hakon has a reason) although she does have a point about tendencies in wolf kills. (I actually guarded Mnemo because I know how unpredictable wolves can be if they like, so I don't put anything past anyone.) If she (Kit, that is) is guilty, however, there's a couple explanations.

It could be a throwaway on a packmate, thinking no one will follow her and so Hakon's activity won't get blocked. Dangerous, but you never know.
It could be a throwaway on an innocent, thinking no one will follow her and someone will believe the above. Makes a bit of sense to me, actually.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from a packmate (Legate?) so her furry friend(s) can kill at full capacity. Makes a lot of sense, but may be too obvious.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from someone she would like to kill toNight, a hope of getting people to vote Hakon so they don't try to protect X/Y. Also makes sense but wolves are flexible if they have to be so I don't like this one quite as much.
(By the same token maybe she thinks people will try to protect someone who's not been guard voted yet but who she thinks would be a usual choice. This theory could work for either of the last two.)

The thing is the I don't think a wolf Kit would guard a wolf Hakon and intend for him to actually be guarded; you can do your own maths on that one. So if Kit turns out to be a wolf down the line I'm going to say that either she's being tricksy or Hakon's innocent.
I still fail to see why Kit's guard vote looked so suspicious. Hakon could've easily been an early kill, and has been before.

That's the part I forgot to mention actually, though I'm sure you all realized it already. If we do at some point guard a suspect (and there are four wolves) if there are still two kills we know that person is innocent. So really it's like we've got an extra seer dream (sort of) every Night until we kill a wolf. Shiny, yes?
Either an innocent realising something brilliant or a wolf trying to look good.

Then she gives a lot of tallies and votes Kit at the final minute. I don't care about her reasons behind voting her, but the fact that she was just chilling giving tallies but no other contribution for the last hour still looks suspicious.

Told ya so. Just sayin'. (In regards to my poor dead duckling, that is.)
Interesting comment. It'd be clever for a wolf-Sally to try to save Mnemo then kill her in the Night.

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.
Seems to be feeling out for opinions before making her own.

++Nienna (meh, might as well)
That was her guard vote. But I'm questioning what she exactly means by "might as well."

++Shasta
Wasn't really around that Day and this guard vote came out of nowhere.

Nog, here's our problem. I wouldn't mind being rid of McCaber either, but I think our options for toDay just became Wilwa and Hakon, thanks to Miss Brinn. So....yeah.

She says she can't vote for McCaber because of me, which I find weird. I still find her entire reaction to my vote that Day just odd behaviour.

I know it's a bit late in the game to be voting on feelings, but I don't have time to look through all the posts. I'm considering....a Wilwa lynch? (The thing is I don't know if it's me who came up with this in my head or if I'm just subconsciously going along with the discussion of Wilwa toDay. Maybe I'll look at her toNight and hope to be around to take care of her tomorrow. I've not decided yet.
Begins to hop the bandwagon, which is suspicious.

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)


Such an early vote on a critical Day looks very bad.

I flip flopped on Sally earlier, but now she's looking more suspicious than not.

[McCaber]

I'm nearly positive I can't save myself. Unless something has changed since the admin thread said "No," that is.

[Brinniel]

McCaber can't fend for himself toNight:

Can the Ranger protect himself???


And what if a wolf is guarded by the village, the Hunter chooses that wolf, and then the Hunter dies? Does that wolf still go down with the Hunter or no?
No and no.

[A Little Green]

This may sound like retaliation but I'm really suspicious of Nienna. Her role in yesterDay's bandwagon as well as her arguments toDay just stink of wolf. Pitchwife too, to some extent, according to my logic. I'd be ready to lynch either because I'm quite positive they are two of our three wolves. What do you others think? Who to lynch?


EDIT: x-ed with Brinn, McCaber and Brinn

[McCaber]

Now that I look at it, just from a tactics standpoint it makes sense for a wolf to vote early and try to sucker someone else into voting the same way. And to do so twice on the same day moves sally pretty near the top of my suspect list.

[Nienna]

The Ranger: Each Night the Ranger chooses who they want to save from being killed by the Werewolves. The Ranger cannot save themselves or the same person twice in a row.

They can't save themselves two nights in a row... this makes me assume they can save themselves at all.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I interpreted it literally, without that phrase 'or the same person' partitioned. Because obviously he can't guard himself twice in a row (if he can guard himself at all), cos he's the same person.

I think we need to get a ruling on this, though.

Eönwë, can McCaber Guard himself?

EDIT: inserted '(if he can guard himself at all)'.

[Boromir88]

I really think it would be rather unsporty to pretend to have forgotten an argument in order not to have to invent one in the first place, and I don't like it that people actually think I would do that.

Chill, I never said you do it, because you don't feel like making an agrument against someone. I know you are very capable, wolf or not, of making your own arguments.

I'm saying it reminded me of something to did towards Nilp as a wolf, and that first time I fell for it thinking you had gifted information.

[Nienna]

I am not a wolf. Sally voted early because she had to leave. She said so many times and you were (and still are) the most suspicious person in my opinion so her voting early doesn't seem weird.

[Pitchwife]

He questions Legate about his guard choices, but asks them why he thinks those two stand out from the others. Looking to hone in on possible gifteds Pitch?
Sorry, no. Just trying to get a read on Legate based on his answers.

But you still end up voting for Kitanna. :rolleyes: And if she was your prime suspect why would you have to reluctantly decide it?
It was Day 1, for Goddess's sake! Never had to pick somebody to vote, found one person more suspicious than any others, but couldn't be sure you were right?


But wasn't heard guard Hakon, and guarding the quiet the thing that you said was sensible?
Only when I don't have any more viable candidates, or can't decide between them.

Oh, like your own suspicions against Kitanna were not in fact, plagiarism? *points to #107
In a way, yes. Point taken.

Discards Nerwen and Me as simply looking good. Yet has quite a bit to say about Lommy, sally, and Inzil. 1 known innocent, 1 unknown, and 1 known wolf.
So what exactly is your point?

His reasons for not suspecting sally has nothing to do with her vote for Kitanna, but her vote tallies. And he turns suspicions on Nog and Brinn for pointing out sally's vote tallies.
I just didn't find her tallies a sufficient reason to suspect her, and found it odd that Nog & Brinn suspected her because of that.

He makes no statement of feelings about Inzil at all, the only person in his list of fellow Kit voters, he just wishes to hear more.
Hear more so I could form an opinion about him, which I hadn't at the time, hence no statement.

This is what he says when he votes Legate, kind of a wierd statement to make. You can tell us if you were secretly hoping he was gifted, Pitch, go on the truth sets us free.
This is what Nilp referred to as 'Legate as a test case'. If I remember correctly, about half the village thought that way.

#373 and #375 In both he also defense Inzil, and defends Nogrod.
1 known innocent, and 1 wolf. What does that prove?


Instead of restating what I've done, please point out what it is that made those things make me look suspicious? As I recall, Inzil turned out to be a wolf, my only regret is not following up on a vote for him, or sticking to my guns. His cool reaction was a lot different from the last time I suspected Inzil of wolvery (and was correct).
Yep, you were right about Zil. Go on, rub it in.

I persuaded you to vote for Kit? I've taken responsibility for that crapper mistake, while you continue to blame me for persuading you.
I don't blame you; that was only one point in the post you're referring to, what made me suspicious was everything taken together. You made a point about Kit, I found it convincing; acting upon it (i.e. voting her) was my own responsibility.

What would the point be in actually stating Legate was framed? The reason I suspected Nogrod still, is because I thought after that night when there was one kill, Nogrod immediately came out and tried to pass off he was innocent. However, as I told Nogrod I made an error, it was wilwa and Hakon.
I just thought that after that frame, you might have been more wary of basing suspicions on the NG and single kills. As for the last sentence, sorry, I don't get it.

And me agreeing with someone about one of their suspicions is sketchy...because? Weren't you the one who became persuaded to vote for Kitanna, because of me and Nerwen?
See above.

You know what? Right now, I'm beginning to think I may just be too honest for this game. And I'm getting tired of sackcloth & ashes.
I'm assuming you're coming after me because you honestly suspect me to be a wolf. I don't say the suspicion is unearned, and you do it well. But if you're a wolf driving nails into my coffin to make sure another innocent is lynched, well done too.
Sadly, the truth as you see it will see us all dead.

P.S. Before I forget it:
++Guard McCaber
I think if he was faking, we would have a counter-reveal by now.

(x-ed with a host)

[Boromir88]

Thanks Brinn.

Now the big issue. If we guard McCaber we are assured of a known innocent tomorrow. However, if we don't get a wolf today, and guard him, then it's over. If we don't get a wolf today, and don't guard him, he can protect someone, but the wolves will most likely kill him...which means it's over anyway.

So, I say we guard McCaber.

[A Little Green]

Chill, I never said you do it, because you don't feel like making an agrument against someone. I know you are very capable, wolf or not, of making your own arguments.

I'm saying it reminded me of something to did towards Nilp as a wolf, and that first time I fell for it thinking you had gifted information.Fair enough. Though I must ask - if you don't think I say I forgot an argument on purpose, then why is saying so a sign of wolvery? Or, do you think a wolf-me would come up with a ploy such as "I'll say I forgot an argument and they'll take me for a gifted"? Quite frankly (and this, again, is an argument I can't in all fairness expect you to take in) it wouldn't cross my mind to think that way! My mind doesn't work in ploys, whether innocent or wolf. I can't spot them in others and certainly can't use them myself.


EDIT: x-ed with Nienna, Pitch and Boro

[Nienna]

I'd like to wait for a ruling from On High but am willing to guard him if he can't protect himself.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

That did it. I'm pretty sure now.

++Nienna

[Brinniel]

Suspects:

Sally: Look my analysis post of her for reasons.

Nienna: Her latching onto my suspicions of wilwa and pulling for the last minute bandwagon looks really bad. I do want to look at her more, but I'm out of time.

Greenie: A possibility as she has seemed to be playing safe, which is suspicious. She's flown under my radar, but then again she always does that. The only thing is that a bunch of people have suddenly started flying suspicion Greenie's way and are ready to lynch her, and I fear that this could be the start of a bandwagon of an innocent, which would seal our fate.

Pitchwife: Noggie did have good points about him, but I really haven't had time to look at him, and I don't feel I could vote him before taking a look myself. Deadline's only 25 minutes away. Where did the time go?

[Eönwë]

I interpreted it literally, without that phrase 'or the same person' partitioned. Because obviously he can't guard himself twice in a row (if he can guard himself at all), cos he's the same person.

I think we need to get a ruling on this, though.

Eönwë, can McCaber Guard himself?

EDIT: inserted '(if he can guard himself at all)'.

No, he cannot guard himself. What you said is correct.

[Nienna]

++ McCaber

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Forgot.

++McCaber

[Boromir88]

++McCaber

[Boromir88]

Nilp, but I made the same mistake as Nienna. Why did that do it?

[A Little Green]

I am not a wolf. Sally voted early because she had to leave. She said so many times and you were (and still are) the most suspicious person in my opinion so her voting early doesn't seem weird.I never said her voting early seemed weird. What I find weird is who she voted and on what grounds. She hasn't posted any argument against me except for "she feels creepy" or something like that. I trust you won't hold a grudge if I don't beileve your first sentence. I can't have proof about that, and what logic I have points against you.
Now the big issue. If we guard McCaber we are assured of a known innocent tomorrow. However, if we don't get a wolf today, and guard him, then it's over. If we don't get a wolf today, and don't guard him, he can protect someone, but the wolves will most likely kill him...which means it's over anyway.

So, I say we guard McCaber.That makes sense. If we lynch an innocent toDay the game is over whether we guard him or not. If we lynch a wolf, though, we'll have a known innocent toMorrow. Therefore:

++ McCaber


EDIT: x-ed with Brinn, Eonwe, Nienna, Nilp and Boro x2

[McCaber]

So right now our choices have to be between Greenie and Nienna. Anything else and the wolves can force a victory.

Thoughts?

[Nienna]

I shouldn't be a choice. If you lynch me the village will lose.

[Boromir88]

Fair enough. Though I must ask - if you don't think I say I forgot an argument on purpose, then why is saying so a sign of wolvery? Or, do you think a wolf-me would come up with a ploy such as "I'll say I forgot an argument and they'll take me for a gifted"? Quite frankly (and this, again, is an argument I can't in all fairness expect you to take in) it wouldn't cross my mind to think that way! My mind doesn't work in ploys, whether innocent or wolf. I can't spot them in others and certainly can't use them myself.


It was more of when I saw it, I thought Nilp, and how I fell for it, and you wound up to be a wolf. My memory is just as faulty, you could very well say the same exact thing as an innocent, but since that time I went after Nilp, because of your comment, and was proven fooled, it's the incident that sticks out in my memory.

[A Little Green]

I think this is rather obvious, but -

++ Nienna

I'd do this even if she wasn't screaming "wolf" to me. I know I'm innocent. I don't know her role. Therefore, from my point of view, she is an infinitely better lynch target. We stand a chance if we lynch her. (Why is it that none of my arguments can be relied on by anyone else?)


EDIT: x-ed with Nienna and Boro

[Brinniel]

It's a tough decision as Sally was really my prime suspect, but it seems I can't vote her now.

Nienna and Greenie look suspicious for different reasons, yet I don't feel like I have enough substance to lynch either of them. What I really need to do is look through their previous posts, but seems too late for that.

[Nienna]

Would someone at least give me the reason why you suspect me?

*is frustrated*

[Brinniel]

I did say that you latching onto my suspicions yesterDay is suspicious. Greenie looks suspicious because of her playing safe. Neither reasons seem substantial enough for a lynching, which is what frustrates me.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilp, but I made the same mistake as Nienna. Why did that do it?You didn't organise a last-minute wilwa bandwaggon yesterDAY. Fair nuff?

[A Little Green]

Would someone at least give me the reason why you suspect me?

*is frustrated*Welcome to my world. :rolleyes: I have given my reasons for suspecting you earlier toDay. Your role in the Wilwa bandwagon looked like a wolf seizing the chance to save a fellow from getting lynched and/or nailing a possible Gifted. Your arguments toDay have been grasping at straws in order to get an innocent lynched.


EDIT: x-ed with Brinn and Nilp

[Boromir88]

I'm going to say I will not vote for Nienna. If she's a wolf, congrats I'm fooled, well played wolves.

So, my vote will go to save her, whether it be Pitch, sally, or Greenie. I also don't like Nilp calling Nienna a wolf, but it may be too late for anything against him.

Pitch looked at first the most suspicious, but his response to me looks more frustration and throwing up hands.

Greenie's posts looks more like she's trying to strike up sympathy more than frustration:
I'd do this even if she wasn't screaming "wolf" to me. I know I'm innocent. I don't know her role. Therefore, from my point of view, she is an infinitely better lynch target. We stand a chance if we lynch her. (Why is it that none of my arguments can be relied on by anyone else?)

And sally I just have no clue, but willing to follow Brinn's vote if she does vote for sally.

[Pitchwife]

Greenie's posts make sense to me, and I'd rather not see her lynched. I doubt my saying so will do her any good *rueful smile*, but don't hold it against her.

[McCaber]

And we enter the final minutes. sally voted Green, and Nilp and Greenie voted Nienna.

[Nienna]

Fine. Lynch me. But when the village looses... its not my fault.

++Greenie

Thank you Boro.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

My reasons for suspecting Nienna:

She's good, I'll admit that, doing her post-by-post analyses of villagers and gauging reactions. But yesterDAY was what did it. wilwa was lynched when five minutes before the DAY ended she didn't have a vote. She latched on to Brinn's outstanding suspicion of wilwa and used it to get her lynched (I dunno how Nogrod was dragged into that). And now . . . well, I'll admit that when you made the same mistake my suspicion of her due to that slip lessened, but it wasn't enough, all right?

[Brinniel]

And sally I just have no clue, but willing to follow Brinn's vote if she does vote for sally.
I do want to vote Sally since she looks more likely a wolf. But would it be too risky to split the votes?

[A Little Green]

Fine. Your choice.

At least don't say I didn't try to tell you.

[A Little Green]

I do want to vote Sally since she looks more likely a wolf. But would it be too risky to split the votes?I'd be willing to retract if it comes to that.

[McCaber]

If all of Brinn, Boro, Pitch, and I are innocent and on board, we can swing something.

[Nienna]

Splitting the votes is NOT a good idea.

[Boromir88]

If all of Brinn, Boro, Pitch, and I are innocent and on board, we can swing something.

Pitch is the only one I'm not sure about, what was that rueful smile about?

[Brinniel]

I'll go for a Sally lynch if the majority will.

[A Little Green]

Come on, one minute left!

[McCaber]

++sally

Let's do this.

[Brinniel]

++Sally

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm going to say I will not vote for Nienna. If she's a wolf, congrats I'm fooled, well played wolves.Yes, we've all been fooled. But I'm not going to leave it at that, damn it. We have evidence right in front of us. wilwa, yesterDAY, dead.

Fair point about Greenie, though. Oh, Eru, if she's a Werewolf, I must be their unwitting Cobbler . . . :confused:

[Boromir88]

++Greenie