Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't at all like the way Legate has voted today. Especially for Celuien, of all people, who's made all of, what, eight posts? More the point, he voted specifically to save Sally, which makes me want to lynch her more. I'm not really agreeing with the suspicion of Wilwa right now - the most suspicious thing that has stood out for me is actually her most recent post, where she basically begs for her life.

++Sally++

Up to Eonwe now (and Foley but I don't think she's going to be around... something I think Legate actually knew).

[the phantom]

Mira- are you around? I would love to hear any and every random thought you have. If you stay quiet it will be too easy for goodie and baddie alike to go along with lynching you, and combined with your lack of posts the lynch would be largely useless for future application.

Celuien- can you post as well?

[the phantom]

Shasta- are we actually agreeing on something ever so slightly? (Referring to Legate's rep & lynch vote- both might've been a bit shady?)

I see we're coming at it from different angles and what we wish to do as a result is different, but still... wow. I'm shocked.

[the phantom]

THE COUNT:

Nog-->Wilwa (2)
Legate-->Celuien (3)
Shasta-->Sally (2)

LEFT TO VOTE:
Foley (2)
Steve (2)

[Mirandir]

Immediate thoughts since they were requested; more detailed to come.

phantom doesn't feel evil - er, good? - to me. His attention getting ploys are slightly more ridiculous than when he actually has something to lose. Case and point - Seer reveal that in my opinion accomplished nothing.

Nog isn't making my head hurt, which a new and interesting experience. That does make me a tad suspicious with no backup for that though.

Mira is a pretty ridiculous fail at this game. This is what happens when people are forced to spend their entire weekend doing homework.

Ima go take a look at sally's posts for the past couple days.

[Folwren]

Woah, woah, woah! You guys did NOT make me a representative! I juts got home, I have less than one and half hours before deadline, and you expect me to make votes for someone to die? Gee thanks.

I'll do a crash course and see what I can do. Don't expect much, because it looks like the family's about to sit down to dinner.

What would be better - that I don't vote at all, or that I do vote? If I plan to vote, then my plan is to see why some people dislike Celuien. If I don't think she should die, my votes will go towards Sally. If I am uncertain about Celuien, I will focus on some other people and see what I think....but don't expect a very scientific or well informed vote from me.

-- Folworc

[Eönwë]

Finally caught up.

Ok, well I can't really see why Celuien is such a suspect now. I'll need to reread her again when I'm less tired, but from what I've seen so far she just doesn't seem really innocent in any way, but she doesn't really look evil either. And she hasn't really posted enough for me to judge her.

And as I said earlier, I'd rather vote Wilwa than Sally right now, so:

++Wilwa x2++


And now it's up to Foley

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, good idea, I should clarify -

Both my votes are for Sally.

Re: Phantom - His rep vote is shady because it's possible he knew Foley wasn't going to be here to use it, and his lynch vote is shady for the reasons I've already stated, so... yes.

[Eönwë]

Well, I think it's time for a (long-overdue) sleep now.

Vote well, Foley!

[Folwren]

Ah hm.

Well, I looked....and did Celuien even post today? There doesn't seem to be much reason to kill her. I'll have to go back and read her Day1 posts.

I'll go eat dinner and come back and decide.

I don't like this. What's the vote tally? I don't have time to go and see.

X-posted with Eonwe and Shasta. I'll do my best to vote well, Shasta, you may be certain.

[the phantom]

THE COUNT:

Nog-->Wilwa (2)
Legate-->Celuien (3)
Shasta-->Sally (2)
Steve-->Wilwa (4)

LEFT TO VOTE:
Foley (2)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

THE COUNT:

Nog-->Wilwa (2)
Legate-->Celuien (3)
Shasta-->Sally (2)
Steve-->Wilwa (4)

LEFT TO VOTE:
Foley (2)

To sum up, Foley -

If you vote Wilwa, she dies.
If you vote Celuien, she dies.
If you vote Sally, Sally and Wilwa both die (and this might not be a bad thing).
If you vote anyone else, Wilwa dies.
If you don't vote, Wilwa dies.

[the phantom]

Well crap, there's a pig outside my second story window. Darn it, Shasta! :p
Well, I looked....and did Celuien even post today?
I don't believe so.

[the phantom]

This voting set up is quite interesting. All three people on the block had something to do with the action yesterday.

[the phantom]

People who are under threat- give Foley some help here and state your cases and make yourselves available to answer any questions she gives you.

[Folwren]

Yeah, someone tell me what Wilwa's done, please. Since Celuien is no longer in immediate danger, I won't bother looking at her, because I really can't see any good reason to kill her.

I'll read Sally's posts today.

[the phantom]

Foley, regarding Wilwa- I found her Rep vote today to be a bit suspect, considering that she gave her vote to you, and you had said that you wouldn't be around. I thought it possible that she did this on purpose.

And then there was her lynch vote yesterday, which I theorized on earlier-
If Sally is innocent, then the lynch voting from yesterday... Celuien and Green would be the more obvious votes to save Lottie, while Nerwen and Wilwa would be the careful and subtle votes to save Lottie.
****(skipping the bit that talks about the other three)****
Then Wilwa was perhaps the most calculating of all. Had she used both votes on Sally, it still would not have put Lottie out of lynching, as Izzy could've tied them and I believe had stated at that stage that she favored lynching Lottie, not to mention that I was around and had listed Sally (but not Lottie) on my list of people I definitely did not want to lynch, and so Wilwa would have assumed that if I wished to avoid a double lynch I would've lynche Lottie ahead of Sally. Also, giving them each only one vote also kept the door open for the double lynch with Boro, as I had indeed been shopping him as a candidate. Wow... when I think about this and write it out, Wilwa's vote, if she's a SoE, looks downright brilliant given the situation.
Anyway, that's the reason I gave for wanting to suspect her.

[Folwren]

Um... Fea, can a rep only vote with one of her votes?

[Folwren]

Never mind.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Never mind.

You can, but it would take both your votes to make a difference where Sally is concerned.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here and vaguely conscious. What can Sally do for you all?

[Mirandir]

#4 Votes phantom for representative in her first post of the game. Either it's Elf-on-Elf (which I doubt) or she's just being silly (my money's on that option).

#8 Her posts are my two favorite numbers. Just sayin. :p
Anyway. Banteringly accuses Lottie of being and Elf. Responds to Dun's "siriusly? vote 4 phantom b4 he shows up?" essentially saying that if he's good she trusts his judgement, and if he's not she trusts he won't do something asinine like lynch the Seer Day 1.

#12 Promises cookies if everyone votes phantom as rep.

#13 Comments on Fea's awesome narration skills.

#48 Forgets there's only one gifted. Jokingly says Shasta and Nerwen are SoE. Is upset with Lommy yelling at her and Lottie for voting for phantom.

#63 Explains that while Days last 48 hours, only the first 24 are for voting for representatives to Glirdan. Goes to be a productive member of society.

#165 Returns. Is highly offended by suspicions of her.

#185 Clarifies nicknames.

Day 2
#326 Wants to know where suspicion of her came from yesterDay. Says Lottie's posts had air of wolfishness but didn't point it out because:
A: I wasn't very coherent, B: I didn't want to look like I was trying to save my hide, and C: I trusted Phantom to keep me around.
Now, I know she and phantom are having some sort of love affair of ridiculousness, but past experience has shown me that he doesn't keep people around unless he has a decent reason to do so, which I haven't seen (admittedly, I also haven't really looked).

Guilty vibes from: Vanilwa, Steve, Cel
Innocent vibes from: Nog, Legate
Insulted vibes from: Lommie

Claims voted phantom because there's few better ways to test him than to give him power, which is least dangerous on Day 1.
This is a concept I can get behind. Not so much the blind faith in him, but the testing of power thing.

#368 Defends phantom's Seer reveal as an attempt to save whoever was getting lynched (who happened to have fur and claws). Suspects he's just being tricksy again and wants to know why he didn't vote.

Responds to Shasta's suspicions that every post she made that Day was suspicious by saying she only posted once and essentially "wtfudge how was that evil?" Further response to Shasta saying that he would have preferred sally be lynched yesterDay than Lottie, who turned out to be a SoE. She's just as confused as I am on that one and
But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Agrees with Legate that Izzy's Night-death made sense since she was a Lottie voter.

Basically....Shasta looks bad to me, based on that post, and Legate sees sense on many a level, which unfortunately doesn't mean he's innocent. Nerwen looks rightfully innocently frustrated with Phantom, so I won't be wanting to lynch her toDay, but I don't want her as a representative either, as I don't want Phantom dead....yet, at least.

#371 Would rather be suspected by the village and allowed to make a case for herself than Night killed.
Makes sense.

#374 Discusses fake seer reveals with Nerwen. Says doesn't think phantom had the reasoning or timing to do so. Discusses phantom with Nerwen.
et's say Phantom is a SoB....erm, SoE. *headdesks, couldn't resist* Knowing that Phantom is a dirty, lowdown, double-crossing scumbag (with love, dear), he would likely be happy to vote for a packmate. It would make him look good, in fact. Thus, why wouldn't he just pile his votes on and say "look at me, I killed Lottie" and add to his train of Reasons Not to Suspect Phantom? It would make sense to do so, and while yes, some people would likely call him out and say "but you didn't kill her, in fact she was already dead before you voted", he would still look good to the masses, his "vote me and I won't vote you" pledge aside.

Basically, a wolf!Phantom would bus his packmate if he got the chance and it was really advantageous for him to do so. I'm not saying he would kill a packmate just because he fancied it, but I feel that he would double cross a fellow wolf/elf/thing if the situation had desired benefits. Especially if said packmate was already dead, or mostly dead, or whatever.

Granted, I'm not saying that I trust Phantom completely, because he could have thought of all the above beforehand and predicted that I (or someone else) would say this exact thing in his defense, but I think that voting for Lottie would have, in that case, looked actually worse than not voting at all.

There's a lot of phantom-defending going on here and I'm not particularly seeing any reason why. I get that they're friends in RL, but a majority of her posts revolve around him. Wolf!sally is never this blatant about protecting packmates. Based on that, I seriously doubt that she or phantom is a wolf. Well, phantom might be, but I already said in a previous post I don't think he is.

#375 Agrees with Rune that two SoE didn't team up Day 1. Asks Nerwen if she is correct in thinking that sally and Lottie are not furry together.

#380 Talks about phantom more. Points out that we know he's not the Seer.

#383 Asks why Nerwen voted Shasta for rep.

#395 Apologizes to Shasta for misinterpreting him. Then tells him his reasoning fails.
Also, in regards to Nog's post below, I concur (on the Phantom bits). I'm not saying that I understand him, I'm saying that I can see reasoning for why his actions wouldn't be those of a wolf. Thus, for now, I want him alive.

#396 For those who don't have time to read Shasta's list in full....

Innocent: Anyone who agrees with him
Undecided: People who haven't specifically agreed/disagreed with him....yet
Guilty: People who don't buy all his rubbish

Seriously, he even says that's his reasoning for who he trusts. Read the post.

Foley seems correct? How would you know if her suspicions are correct unless you know everyone's roles? There's no other way to know if someone is "correct", and if you know roles you're either the seer (who can't possibly know enough roles to make this kind of judgement) or a son of an elvish trollop. So....that leaves?

...K. I get she's not thrilled with this whole "misunderstanding" thing going on, but this is awfully defensive when it doesn't need to be. Either she has really strong feelings that Shasta is furry that I have yet to get to, or she's insulted and acting out. Wolf!sally generally keeps her temper in check better than this.

#424 Responds to phantom's question of if anyone else is interested in seeing what she would do as a rep by claiming she'd kill an elf. Considering voting Nog.

#433 Doesn't want Vanilwa as a rep, but would be okay with Nog and could settle for Nerwen, but doesn't say why.

#437 Is not stoked Shasta is a rep. Most likely won't vote Nerwen. Would be happier with Nog.

#439 Votes Nog for rep.

#441 Asks phantom if he'd considering thirding Nog if he can't get someone else in power.

#464 Looks at the Day 1 rep votes. Finds Lottie's vote right after hers worrisome. Wants to know if Wilwa was making so much sense why Greenie voted for Nerwen instead of her. Doesn't draw any conclusions from Nog's vote for Izzy. Is not thrilled with my phantom vote but doesn't want to lynch me yet. Finds Cel's vote for Foley interesting. Finds Foley's vote for Cel confusing but not guilt-riddled.

#472 Agrees with Nog that Wilwa is fishy. Responds to Legate that she would like to see Wilwa or Cel killed.
I'm still not sure where the suspicion of Wilwa is coming from, though...

#482 Is stoked phantom agrees that Wilwa is calculating and thus potentially evil.
There aren't Lovers in this game, right? :P

#494 Pops in to say has internet troubles and might not be back.

xed since Foley's 516.

[Mirandir]

Aaaand fail Mira for not actually saying what that massive post boils down to.

Pretty much I don't find sally all that suspicious. She's getting upset when people try to suspect her and I'm still not quite sure where her suspicion of Wilwa is coming from (although in all fairness, I very well might have missed it in the rush to get this done before DL), but nothing about that screams SoE to me.

Now I really want to know Wilwa, Shasta, and phantom's roles are just to see if I'm going to get proven wrong. :rolleyes:

[Folwren]

Okedoke...well....I've had an exhausting weekend, and I seriously cannot read straight...plus, I'm supposed to be at my brother's house five minutes ago.

But...even before Phantom told me two or three posts ago that Wilwa's vote for me as Rep was odd, I had decided so myself. I haven't had time to look at her other posts. I have read some of them...and I'm getting a bad feeling about her. And I think there is a possibility that she's linked to Sally.

Which brings me to Sally now. I don't trust her. But I didn't in my other game, either. I don't know her playing style well, but it seems she's MUCH more uptight this game than last. I am also basing some of my opinion off of a couple of posts by Greenie (I can't find them at this moment, but she said at least once today that Sally's posts seem elvish to her) where she said she didn't trust Sally.

That being said, I hate this business. I hate it more than I can really express, but from what LITTLE intuition I have (I say little in caps because I've only been here a grand total of ... less than thirty minutes, probably) I really have a bad feeling for Wilwa and Sally. I think Wilwa is covering Sally, and I think they're both potentially guilty.

So if this turns out bad, I'm sorry. Please don't kill me. It's not really fair.

++Sallyx2++

May the Balrog have mercy on our souls.

Cross posted with everything posted on this new page.

[satansaloser2005]

You can, but it would take both your votes to make a difference where Sally is concerned.

Yes, dear, but was that what she was asking? I think not. ;)



Shasta is being so bloody single-minded. Why?


ETA: x'd with Foley. Bloody....

[Folwren]

I'm here and vaguely conscious. What can Sally do for you all?

Forgive your humble...orc....friend...who just doomed you to death...? But only if you're innocent. If you're guilty, don't bother forgiving me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, that's a double lynch, then, looks like.

Thanks for coming back even though you said you were going to be gone, Foley. :)

[satansaloser2005]

Mark this. MARK THIS NOW. Notice how Foley didn't even read before voting? At least not thoroughly? If/When Wilwa/Cel turn(s) out to be evil, remember that.

[satansaloser2005]

Forgive your humble...orc....friend...who just doomed you to death...? But only if you're innocent. If you're guilty, don't bother forgiving me.

Alas, my lass, I'm not forgiving you either way, at least not right now.


Sorry, loves, I just feel a bit ripped off that I've done my best to participate since Thursday (when my non-participation wasn't even my fault) and now I get killed.

Also, lynch Shasta for me. He's either evil or just a single-minded elf lover deep down.

I'm going back to bed, kthnx. Best of luck to the SoE, only because it will keep my "if I'm lynched as an innocent, the village loses" streak intact. :p

[Folwren]

Mark this. MARK THIS NOW. Notice how Foley didn't even read before voting? At least not thoroughly? If/When Wilwa/Cel turn(s) out to be evil, remember that.

*Flushes hot* I did read. Not thoroughly, no, but how the great blazes did you expect me to read thoroughly? HONESTLY? I didn't do this lightly, and I'm sorry. I really am. I'll be especially sorry if you end up innocent, but Sally, I don't trust you, ahd I haven't, not since the beginning of the game, I haven't.

I'm sorry.

I do have to go, though. I'm almost twenty minutes late.

[satansaloser2005]

*Flushes hot* I did read. Not thoroughly, no, but how the great blazes did you expect me to read thoroughly? HONESTLY? I didn't do this lightly, and I'm sorry. I really am. I'll be especially sorry if you end up innocent, but Sally, I don't trust you, ahd I haven't, not since the beginning of the game, I haven't.

I'm sorry.

I do have to go, though. I'm almost twenty minutes late.

I don't expect you to read all the way through, but you don't instigate a double lynch without really, REALLY good reason. Unless you're evil.

*dies, goes back to the happy land of sleep*

In all honesty, I don't care who wins, as I've not been healthy most of this game. Sorry, but tis true. Thus, my allegiance lies to my record. SoE, eat them all! :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't expect you to read all the way through, but you don't instigate a double lynch without really, REALLY good reason. Unless you're evil.

*dies, goes back to the happy land of sleep*

In all honesty, I don't care who wins, as I've not been healthy most of this game. Sorry, but tis true. Thus, my allegiance lies to my record. SoE, eat them all! :p

Calm down. Foley specifically said she wasn't going to be here and didn't want to be a rep, she was made one anyway, she did the best she could under the circumstances.

[satansaloser2005]

Calm down. Foley specifically said she wasn't going to be here and didn't want to be a rep, she was made one anyway, she did the best she could under the circumstances.

I'm not mad at Foley, I just think she's evil. I know she did her best, but given the people I suspect you KNOW I have to find that suspicious. I just have to.

[the phantom]

So, in summary, the two ladies who wished to lynch each other are both going to be lynched.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not mad at Foley, I just think she's evil. I know she did her best, but given the people I suspect you KNOW I have to find that suspicious. I just have to.

Also, to clarify this, I sympathize with her being made a rep against her will. So it's not like I think she hatched a great big conspiracy toDay or anything. But she could have not voted, see, which would have been more responsible in my opinion.

[the phantom]

Okay people. Night-time. Tomorrow, do NOT lynch- Lommy or Mira.

Good luck.

[Nienna]

Mmk children, stop posting. Deadline.

Wilwa and Sally have both been killed. Narration and roles to follow.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs644.snc4/60443_161084063901997_100000012124034_510265_72075 43_n.jpg

Sessa and Sally have died. They were both ordos.

Night Three now begins. Elf and Co, do your thing. Seer, lay it on me.

Dead:
Feanorc and Niennorc - beheaded in the dark
Lottielf (Elladan) - axed in the head
Izanordorc (ordo) - head cut off in her sleep
Borc (ordo) - nommed some poison by accident
Glirdan (ordo) - accidental broken heart
Wilwa (ordo) and Sally (ordo) - crushed to death by khup-khaks.

Alive:
Celuien
Foley
Greenie
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Mira
Nerwen
Nog
Phantom
Rune
Shasta
Steve
Zil

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs708.snc4/62839_161341213876282_100000012124034_512408_76156 13_n.jpg

Nogrod has been Night killed. He was an ordo.

Day now begins. Elfy baby wockies, cease your PMing.

Dead:
Feanorc and Niennorc - beheaded in the dark
Lottielf (Elladan) - axed in the head
Izanordorc (ordo) - head cut off in her sleep
Borc (ordo) - nommed some poison by accident
Glirdan (ordo) - accidental broken heart
Wilwa (ordo) and Sally (ordo) - crushed to death by khup-khaks.
Nog (ordo) - sworded by a ninja elf in his sleep

Alive:
Celuien
Foley
Greenie
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Mira
Nerwen
Phantom
Rune
Shasta
Steve
Zil

[Nerwen]

Question: can we take it the Elves thought Nog was the Seer? I mean, I wouldn't be surprised even without the narration, because he hinted at it quite a bit yesterDay.

Now, Shasta and Foley– what did you two mean by lynching Wilwa and Sally? I thought we'd all agreed they couldn't be fellows?

[Mirandir]

x...The people I was going to make a case against need to stop being killed. They definitely need to stop being ordos too, because that's just leading me to question everything I've been thinking all game. Looks like Ima go reevaluate. Elfpoodoo.

[Inziladun]

Nog, eh? I don't guess it's surprising, considering that he was giving what could easily have been taken as Seer-hints.

Bad stuff at the end of yesterDay, with the double-lynch. It might be tough sifting out the suspicious-looking votes, since we know at least one known innocent was involved.

x/d with Nerwen and Mira

[Inziladun]

Now, Shasta and Foley– what did you two mean by lynching Wilwa and Sally? I thought we'd all agreed they couldn't be fellows?

Shasta did say he wasn't opposed to it, didn't he? Did he say before he didn't want to lynch Sally? Or am I thinking of someone else?

[Inziladun]

Actually, I had it backwards. It was Sally he wanted to lynch, and Wilwa he at first said he didn't.

I don't at all like the way Legate has voted today. Especially for Celuien, of all people, who's made all of, what, eight posts? More the point, he voted specifically to save Sally, which makes me want to lynch her more. I'm not really agreeing with the suspicion of Wilwa right now - the most suspicious thing that has stood out for me is actually her most recent post, where she basically begs for her life.

[highlight++Sally++/highlight]

To sum up, Foley -

If you vote Wilwa, she dies.
If you vote Celuien, she dies.
If you vote Sally, Sally and Wilwa both die (and this might not be a bad thing).
If you vote anyone else, Wilwa dies.
If you don't vote, Wilwa dies.

[Mirandir]

Shasta did say he wasn't opposed to it, didn't he? Did he say before he didn't want to lynch Sally? Or am I thinking of someone else?

I believe he had actually said he would have preferred Sally lynched over Lottie Day 1 and still wanted her dead after that. There was something about a misunderstanding about that though which my shoddy memory doesn't recall perfectly.

[Nerwen]

Shasta did say he wasn't opposed to it, didn't he? Did he say before he didn't want to lynch Sally? Or am I thinking of someone else?
He wanted to lynch Sally. I'm just saying that Shasta, anyway, should have known that the double-lynch was bound to kill at least one innocent.

Of course, if it had got a wolf as well, I guess I wouldn't be complaining now.

EDIT:X'd with Mirandir and Zil.

[Inziladun]

Not sure what to make of Foley. Not the greatest vote, but her reactions afterward looked fairly genuine. And like Nerwen said, it'd be hailed as brilliant if she'd got an Elf.

[Folwren]

I am not really here. I'm at a friend's house and only had like two seconds to check this. Just wanted to say-


Now, Shasta and Foley– what did you two mean by lynching Wilwa and Sally? I thought we'd all agreed they couldn't be fellows?

I was actually not around to agree on anything...I had no idea and that was one thing I didn't pick up on. So sorry.

[Nerwen]

I'm looking at Nogrod here on the assumption that the wolves thought he was the Seer, which as we'll see he hinted at very heavily– with a view to working out who the wolves might have thought his dreams were. I've included his thoughts on dead players, because a "Seer" talking about players with known roles in the same terms as unknowns can be a clue about whether he's actually hinting. (Does that make sense?)

Nogrod, Day 1, first half.

#57. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639061&postcount=57)
This Sally - Lottie - tp triangle looks just a bit too obvious to be true. But the moral highground of Shasta - Nerwen - Lommy trio is kind of too neat as well. And the carefulness of Legate -Zil - Glirdy looks soo suspicious...
Suspicious of tp's promise not to lynch those who elect him.


#87. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639098&postcount=87) Discusses voting strategy. Wants multiple reps.


#88. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639099&postcount=88) Ditto.


#89. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639101&postcount=89) Ditto.


#102. So how is it... tp has two votes (enough) and Lommy and Nerwen have one each?

I have nothing against those three ending up as representatives. Basically I have nothing against more or less ayone becoming a representative at this stage of the game: it would be interesting to learn more about everyone.
(http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639116&postcount=102) Rep-votes Izzy.


#104. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639118&postcount=104) Voting strategy. Frustrated at Mira.


#219. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639253&postcount=219) Very suspicious of phantom. Boro is "odd" and Legate's posting "makes him nervous". But I can say right now that you reps should have very strong reasons if you would lynch Shasta. It's not the fact that he argues against tp (tp might be innocent anyway), but it's the way he does it. I'd be almost as assured of Foley's innocence, but not just that much.


#244. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639287&postcount=244) Considers lynching phantom. Suspicious of Sally and Lottie. Doesn't like me, both for "attacking" Mira and "defending" Boro. Disputes Lommy's belief that SoE among the reps would be bad. Suspicious of Boro.


#246. Great udders of relief! Kath is here, naturally - on technical terms - missing D1...


#250. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639293&postcount=250) Highly critical of phantom's explanations for his conduct.


#255. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639300&postcount=255) List. Suspects me, Boro, Lottie and the phantom. "50-50" about Sally; torn about Izzy; tends to trust Wilwa and Rune. Is slightly more suspicious of Shasta than before and less so of Legate.
Mira I think was clearly someone who didn't read the thread - and as such not someone I would vote for a representative (another promise here) - and where Nerwen's attack on her looks like reeally bad.


257. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639302&postcount=257) Lists Celuien, Glirdy, Greenie, Kath, Steve and Inzil as those of whom he has little to say.

Comments: Who, then, could his "Night One dream" have been? It's difficult to say, and in fact it's possible the wolves didn't look too hard at Day One, since the hints on Day Two would likely have been enough to make them jump on him, as long as there was no glaring anomaly, such as proclaiming one of them an innocent. At a guess, it could be Lottie (Elf, obviously) or Mira (innocent)– this based on the way he overreacts to my very mild "attack" on her. He is, of course, also very suspicious of the phantom.


Nogrod, Day 2, first half.

#386. "I'm here".


#391. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639464&postcount=391) Sally posts suspiciously, but probably not an Elf because of Lottie's actions.
Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.



#393. phantom: Just a question. What if your initial premise is wrong? I'm somehow getting more and more worried it might be... I mean you have a decent quess there but the world might work differently.


#400. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639473&postcount=400) Virtually a repeat of #391. Again argues that Sally is innocent because of Lottie's vote, and says of phantom:
phantom's actions just cry for the seer to dream of him. And looking at the mess he has managed to make - two Days more or less talking only about him - would make the seer more or less irresponsible if s/he didn't dream of him and check him.

If you think you are bored to talk about tp then let him be and leave him to the seer.


#405. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639478&postcount=405) Considers who to vote for rep. Would have liked Rune, except that his drunkenness would give him an "alibi", making his lynch-vote hard to read. Legate "observant" but hard to read. Tends to trust Lommy for her vote and because "her frustrations felt genuine".


#407. Originally Posted by A Little Green
I'm still suspicious of Sally - I totally get the argument for her innocence, but her every post screams elf.
Welcome to the club!



It's Day 2 and I'm still not suspecting Nog , wonder if that's because he's actually an elf this time! (!!!)
I could actually return the amazement... and the implications.


#410. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639483&postcount=410) Votes Legate for rep.



Nogrod, Day 2, second half.

#454. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639533&postcount=454) Thinks Sally and tp innocent, wants to check Lottie's other contacts.


#469. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639548&postcount=469) After checking, agrees with me that she didn't really have any. Explains belief that Sally and tp should be left to the Seer in vague terms: Well, so far (from the mid of D1 about) I have been guided by an interpretation of the general situation that points it being wiser to check them and not lynch them right away.
Makes a case for Wilwa's being an Elf.


#475. Wilwa suspicious. Rune's composure might be Elvish. "Needs to look" at Zil and Cel.
Sally I would leave to the seer as I said before. Someone actually noted that it might take a few Days before the seer comes out - that's just the better, for that would mean more information.


#480 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639561&postcount=480). Analyses Cel. Finds her less worrying than before. Replies to Shasta:
Originally Posted by Shasta
I've noted several things to comment on, not least of which is Nogrod and his insistence on leaving everything to the Seer. He's mentioned it at least twice now - "Leave Phantom to the Seer! Leave Sally to the Seer!" - and I call shenanigans. Nogrod, you're being absurd.
Tell me Shasta, why not to wait for the seer and be cool with it? Give me one good reason. And first of all think...


#485. phantom: stop that "I'm the known orc and everyone's having a conspiracy to lynch me" -parade, please.


#489. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639570&postcount=489) Agrees with Shasta that there is a possible bandwagon on Wilwa, but still finds her the best option.


#491. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639572&postcount=491) QUotes rules about the OoUA, bolding the following passage.The orc of unknown allegiance appears as as such to the seer, should xe be dreamt of. If the seer dreams of xim before xe chooses sides, the seer will be updated as to xer side once xe has
You all know the choice has been made toDay.


#492. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639574&postcount=492) Votes to lynch Wilwa. (Wilwa 2)

Comments: Based on this, it looks as if his supposed Night 2 dream was either Sally (innocent) or the phantom (innocent)– the latter would be the most logical, especially given how much Nogrod had suspected him the Night before (although the same is true of Sally to a lesser extent).

By innocent here I just mean "non-Elf", since I am trying to look at this from the Elvish point of view, and they of course only know who they are. (As a little side-note, though, if I'm right in guessing the wolves think or thought of phantom as a possible OoUA, Nog's cryptic post at #491 might have been taken as confirmation of this.)

There is one point against all this: Nogrod's post at #485, where he tells phantom to stop saying he's a known Orc– is that something a Seer would say to a person he'd dreamed?

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[A Little Green]

Erm.. what the eff happened yesterDay? :confused: Also, it seems I've been barking up the wrong tree for two Days. Sorry Sally. :( But why Wilwa? What were the arguments against her? I should go back and check I suppose.

As for Nog - it's possible that the elves read his "Leave that to the Seer" -comments as hints. It's pretty paranoid but elves are bound to be. As for Nerwen's theory about him - well it's pretty clear that a Nog-Seer's second dream would have been phantom:Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be.Which would logically mean that if the elves killed Nog as a potential Seer, phantom is innocent. It would be ingenious though for a phantomelf and his pack to kill Nog (who they would more or less know was not the Seer, but would be seen by the village as a potential one). A pretty perfect cover for a phantomelf. Then again, a) I still believe phantom is innocent, and b) the elves would have been plain crazy not trying to target the Seer last Night.
The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes. This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

Back in a dash with a few responses to what was said yesterDay..

[A Little Green]

Are you always this optimistic? Because I almost want to suspect you for it, as it is usually quite difficult to convince me of my chances until something is nearly in the bag or the odds are stacked heavily in favor, and even then I tend to worry and fear the worst. Blast you and your different way of thinking!Ahem. I seem to recall discussing this with you before. :p But yes, I do have a tendency to optimism, I see it as kind of essential in a game like this. You can't play werewolf with an attitude of "it doesn't matter what I do, the elves are going to win anyway".
Greenie, do you have a comment? Oh, I see you answered this very thing in #468. Hmm. This reply makes sense, but I'm not sure if it really has to do with Sally's point.Well, that's how I understood it.. :confused: If you understood Sally's point differently, feel free to re-formulate it and I'll try to answer it as best I can.
People who don't look so good:
Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her.
Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed).It's kind of curious that his list of "people who don't look so good" consists of the two main suspects of yesterDay, both of whom were lynched, both of whom turned out innocent. Maybe even too safe for an elf? I'd like to go back and have a look at when he started suspecting these two. Oh, I know you could, but I was just saying that it'd be more subtle and clever for you to just vote for someone likely to vote for me (as you did) and then use your three votes on someone no one has voted for (as you did) leaving the door wide open for me to be lynched. With two vocal anti-phantom reps (Foley & Shasta) you might've even bet on it. It just totally seems like something that I would do as a baddie. If you are a baddie- kudos for the scheme. If you're a goodie, I will have no choice but to fly to Europe after the game and punch you.I find it rather amusing that you consider it a baddie's automatic top priority to get rid of you.

[Thinlómien]

That's something I did not quite expect - which is funny for like people have said he was really talking about the seer so much that you couldn't help wondering if he was him. Somebody should check what he said about people though, there shouldn't be anything that's too drastically against the truth though because then the wolves would never thave thought he coud be the seer. Ok I see Nerwen did that. Thanks - although that wasn't too enlightening!

As for the lynch, it was quite eyebrow-raising, but I'm thinking I might have done the same in Foley's place. While the chances weren't high they'd both be wolves, it seemed quite probable to me at least that one of them has to be a wolf, and that seemed like a quick way to find out... unfortunately it was a disaster.

(By the way, I had a dream there was some ww game where my role was Théoden and I got killed by the lynched hunter who had a huge spear/pole arm/ something. It was quite gross. Glad there are noi hunters in this game. ;))

Shall post more soon, for example look at yesterDay's stuff that happened after I left...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm hmm. Shall be back a bit later with more posting, but just for now, the initial impressions: I also think it's likely that Nog's death is related to his "leave this to the Seer, leave this to the Seer" comments; although I must also wonder, why, if it was so, did the Wolves find him worth targeting while they didn't find phantom so, who said straightaway that he was the Seer. There is of course the option that phantom is one of them, but there are also many other options, like simply that Nogrod was somehow more precise in picking the "right" and "wrong" Wolves... though from Nerwen's analysis, it does not seem like he had any clear suspects or non-suspects. Or the Wolves just really were paranoid.

As for the double-lynch yesterDay, it was certainly not a good thing in the outcome, but then again, I think back then, I wouldn't have objected much either as it seemed that there is a large chance that at least one Wolf would be lynched. Foley's reaction related to that seemed rather innocentish, she would have to be a good actor for that.

Will be back later...

[Nerwen]

It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.
Er... which is pretty much what I said in that bit you're quoting.

Hmm hmm. Shall be back a bit later with more posting, but just for now, the initial impressions: I also think it's likely that Nog's death is related to his "leave this to the Seer, leave this to the Seer" comments; although I must also wonder, why, if it was so, did the Wolves find him worth targeting while they didn't find phantom so, who said straightaway that he was the Seer.
Because the circumstances of phantom's reveal made it rather obviously fake.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Because the circumstances of phantom's reveal made it rather obviously fake.

Yes, well. Though reading what Nog was saying, I am not sure how much more "subtle" his Seer-comments were. I mean, a Seer does not usually go around shouting "leave everything to the Seer". It seems to me that the only difference is, basically, that phantom said "I am the Seer", while Nog just kept talking about a Seer.

[Nerwen]

Yes, well. Though reading what Nog was saying, I am not sure how much more "subtle" his Seer-comments were. I mean, a Seer does not usually go around shouting "leave everything to the Seer". It seems to me that the only difference is, basically, that phantom said "I am the Seer", while Nog just kept talking about a Seer.
I know, but it could be enough to make the difference between whether the wolves think it worth killing someone or not.

[Thinlómien]

Okay comments on yesterDay...

Sally's innocence could imply phantom's innocence since he could've saved Lottie by voting Sally and he tends to protect his fellows.

Rune is more composed and he's not getting mad at anyone. So should I count it as suspicious? Agreeableness sure is one of the general trademarks of the elves.Funny you should say this because that was one of the reasons why I half-subconsciously considered him innocent. Weird.

My feelings are so hurt.Doesn't mean I don't love you anyway. ;) I just find it difficult to trust you in ww after that one horrid game and in this game you haven't come across as particularily innocent (or particularily guilty).

Well, someone needs to drive home the point that, no, you can't have everything your way. Everyone else (except Nerwen) seems too intimidated!Or then others just think it's better to let him live in the imaginary world inside his small head :p than start arguing with him since he seems pretty harmless atm...

By the way, this game has been quite lousy when it comes to voting. Everyone vote toDay, ok?

Innocent...?
Folwren - her agony yesterDay seemed genuine and innocent.
phantom - I think I know what he's up to. Score! Could be wrong though.

In re-consideration (since two of my suspects were revealed innocent)
Greenie and Legate - I still think them mostly innocent but I have started to fear they're fooling me. I don't like Legate's vote yesterDay, there's just something fishy and forced in it.
Steve and Zil - well there never was much "proof" for their innocence anyway. I'm wondering... they are both kind of slipping under my radar while giving a quite innocent impression. Will probably pay more attention to them from now on.
Rune - people questioning his innocence yesterDay made me more suspicious of him. He should be around more.

Still no clue
Shasta - this guy is an enigma.
Mira - all fish: not around much, making analyses twenty minutes before DL and all that kind of weird stuff. But I think the most probable scenario is that she's innocent and just making me suspicious as always. Far from sure though...
Kath - quite frankly, no idea even though she's been around more.
Nerwen - is actually starting to lean innocent but not so much that I'd put her to the innocent category.

Still suspicious
Celuien - and still with as few reasons as before... Gut-feeling.

Doesn't really make me happy we still have three wolves around. Well, if we lose, I blame Boro and Glirdy. :p


edit: xed with several, not sure which ones though...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am around, but there is so much I have missed. . . . so much to read up on. I think will go back and look over the votes and then return with my thoughts.

btw it is quite ironic that Wilwa should be the victim of a double lynch.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not going to complain about the lynched, since I was not around I don't think I have too much of a right. I can definitely see why people voted for either Wilwa or Sally even though they would not have been my first choices.

Folwren shows up and goes for the double lynch, much to the annoyance of Sally. Can we blame her? I think not, we made her a representative and she made a decision that she felt was right. I know that Sally was of the opinion that she should not have used her vote at all, but I don't think that would have been any more responsible at all.

I hope I do not get in trouble for saying this. . . I mean it is all friendly and not looking for conflict, I have been told that this is the trade mark of a SoE.

[A Little Green]

Er... which is pretty much what I said in that bit you're quoting.I know! The difference is that you seemed to consider it as a possibility, whereas I don't - even if I was a SoE it would be so ridiculously paranoid that I don't think it would be an option.
I hope I do not get in trouble for saying this. . . I mean it is all friendly and not looking for conflict, I have been told that this is the trade mark of a SoE.Talking about ironic.. The post otherwise looked very very innocent to me, all except for the bit where you hope it doesn't look suspicious. :D

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Talking about ironic.. The post otherwise looked very very innocent to me, all except for the bit where you hope it doesn't look suspicious. :D

It often does, I just thought that it was funny that Nogrod and others normally suspect me when I get easily annoyed and now they think it is odd when I don't.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think I am slowly getting from my "I have some idea" into the "I don't have any idea"-mode. When it comes to thinking about whom to choose as a Rep, when looking through the list of players, I could think about Lommy or even about Foley again - though first I would like to hear more from her, like, whom she suspects now and so on. I am not so sure if I trust Rune enough to go with my experiment "let's see what he will do if I make him a Rep". Steve is also one possibility, I am not sure about Nerwen... originally, I had good feeling about her, now I have mostly "no feeling", but then, maybe if I saw her vote, it would be what I need to make my compass point to some more obvious direction concerning her.

I think that is one disadvantage to the Rep system; that because not all people vote every Day, you eventually sort of lose the grip of what you feel like about people who haven't been voting anybody for some time, especially if their words are generally neither that suspicious or that innocent-looking, or back and forth.

I think I will spend some time with once again reviewing and reconsidering stuff about people. I would, most of all, however, like to see people posting (especially people like Celuien, of whom I would like to learn more using this Day, or Mira, or even Kath).

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Suit yourself Legate, but if anybody feels differently they should feel free to vote for me as a Representative.

I am sorry that I have not been able to make any huge contribution today, but things are pretty stressed. I should have more time to read posts in 5 hours time.

[Inziladun]

But why Wilwa? What were the arguments against her? I should go back and check I suppose.

For me, her Day 1 vote and her air of jumpiness the next Day were the main points against her.

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

As Nerwen said, it wouldn't have been the first time baddies acted so. The comment by Nog in #407 wouldn't seem nearly as overt as all he said about 'leaving Sally to the Seer' and all that, though.

I am not going to complain about the lynched, since I was not around I don't think I have too much of a right. I can definitely see why people voted for either Wilwa or Sally even though they would not have been my first choices.

Since you say that, who would have been your first choices?

Suit yourself Legate, but if anybody feels differently they should feel free to vote for me as a Representative.

Soliciting votes, are you? What would your platform be?

[Nerwen]

As Nerwen said, it wouldn't have been the first time baddies acted so. The comment by Nog in #407 wouldn't seem nearly as overt as all he said about 'leaving Sally to the Seer' and all that, though.
However, the comments about phantom and Sally are the ones that contain the actual "Seer-hints"– and Nog's first comment on Day Two suggests he'd dreamed phantom in the Night. Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be

I'd like second, third and fourth opinions on that point, though. Obviously it makes a big difference whether the wolves thought Nog had dreamed phantom already, or was merely going to do so.

(That– before I get ahead of myself– is if they took Nog's comments as Seer-hints in the first place, which of course we don't know.)

[Thinlómien]

Talking about ironic.. The post otherwise looked very very innocent to me, all except for the bit where you hope it doesn't look suspicious.Exactly my thoughts. :D

(That– before I get ahead of myself– is if they took Nog's comments as Seer-hints in the first place, which of course we don't know.)I think we can quite safely assume they did - OR then they thought we'd think that and were trying to achieve something in that light. The only thing that comes to my mind, though, is phantom seeming innocent.

I don't like it that it has grown so quiet here. Granted, it's not very late yet but there are still very few posts taking into account that this half of the Day is more than halfaway through...

[Folwren]

I have a couple minutes to post...

I expected to be raked over the coals by all of you, quite honestly. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that you all don't appear to blame me too much for what happened. Thanks.

I was going to tell why I voted the way I did, but I won't unless you all want to hear, because it would take up some of my very little time, and I don't want to do that.

Question: Do we think that the elves thought Nogrod was the seer based only on what Fea put into the narration?

I was not around on Day2, so I don't know what he said that could have been misconstrued as seer hints. I have my suspcions about somebody else being a seer, but I won't say whom I think it is.

Also...when I have time, I would like to look into Shasta. Sally said she distrusted him, but that may have just been because he voted for her. But if there's another reason she didn't trust him, then I'd like to find out. The problem is, I may not have very much time, so if anyone else thinks it worth while to look at him...please do. :D

And my brief moments are fulfilled, my few words spoken.

-- Folworc

[Folwren]

What about Legate? He's another person I'll look into. It's odd, but I think I distrust both the people who voted me into Rep position yesterday. I obviously distrusted Wilwa, obvious because I killed her, and I know I distrust Legate. I think it's because I feel they shouldn't have voted for me that day because I had declared I was gone, and they did. I think that's odd and not very explanable, unless Legate really didn't see I was gone.

[the phantom]

Okay, I am here now, but I haven't read at all. I'm going to go back and skim through yesterday while I'm eating my lunch, and then post thoughts/responses.

[Celuien]

I'm halfway here and skimming through. All I can say about yesterDay so far is huh?!?

I don't know if I'm going to be able to improve my participation much, unfortuately. Getting here is turning out to be harder than expected.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Suit yourself Legate, but if anybody feels differently they should feel free to vote for me as a Representative.
I am actually still rethinking that and might vote you after all. Depends also on what others say and if there is another one among them whom I might consider. As soon as you come, would you mind to give some brief outline as to what you think about people? Same goes for Folwren, now that she is around.

What about Legate? He's another person I'll look into. It's odd, but I think I distrust both the people who voted me into Rep position yesterday. I obviously distrusted Wilwa, obvious because I killed her, and I know I distrust Legate. I think it's because I feel they shouldn't have voted for me that day because I had declared I was gone, and they did. I think that's odd and not very explanable, unless Legate really didn't see I was gone.

I said it earlier, I didn't know that you are not going to be around. Especially not since you already had one vote; it wouldn't have crossed my mind that somebody who is not going to be around has been even voted for. I am one of the people who usually check the admin thread in case there's something important, but your announcement had been made already a long time ago and was "obsolete" by the time I voted for you, so I didn't check it anew and was not reminded of it.

[A Little Green]

To sum up my thoughts on people:

Leaning innocent:
Foley - Continues to look innocent. While her yesterDay's vote would have been ingenious for an elf, her conduct around that time speaks strongly against there being any kind of controlled plotting and scheming and purposefulness behind her actions.
Legate - Leaning more innocent than not. He is being wishy-washy in the sense an elf would not, if you get what I mean. An elf would be more - composed? Then again, I have a bad feeling that he is totally fooling me.
Lommy - I quite simply can't see her as an elf. I'm almost tempted to say that if she is one she deserves to win.
Phantom - See Lommy (except change the she into he of course).
Shasta - I'm starting to get suspicious of him because of not suspecting him. :rolleyes: He has fooled me so brilliantly for so many times that I don't trust him anymore, and yet in this game I can't bring myself to find him elvish. Bleh. He's still getting into this category, as I find myself constantly thinking of him as an innocent Shasta.

Need more data:
Celuien - I need to see more of her before being able to form an opinion one way or another.
Kath - Her long post yesterDay looked really genuine. It's of course easy to look genuine if you post as little as she does.. So again, I need to see more of her.
Mira - Another I would absolutely need to see more of. Somehow I'm inclined to think an elf wouldn't be so inactive, though.

Undecided about:
Nerwen - I couldn't point it out, but there is something in her that doesn't quite sit right with me. Could be just a vague random gut-feeling though. I need to check her if I have time.
Rune - Absolutely no read, he's another I'd need to check. He has indeed been way more agreeable in this game than what I remember him being in previous ones, but then again, it's been a while and people's styles do change. Also, I'm thinking that a part of why he is so mild-tempered and moderate in this game is that he hasn't really needed to aggressively defend himself. Don't know what to make of his continuous desire to become rep, though - just average power-hungry Runne or an elf-Runne?
Steve - I'm really running out of time here, as I'd love to check him too! His behaviour yesterDay seemed somehow almost too neat. A potential elf.
Zil - Way too smooth to my liking. He's certainly among the more active players of this lot, and yet I can't get a read on him. (I have the same problem with him in every single game we play together, though.)

I'm slightly worried about the fact that I have no stronger suspicions - after all it's Day 3 in a game with 48 hour Days.. Also, I have a bad feeling that I'm being fully and completely fooled and our remaining elves are in fact Foley, phantom and Kath or something like that.


EDIT: x-ed with phantom, Cel and Legate. Nice to see people around!

[A Little Green]

Right. As to who I'd like to see as reps toDay. I could go for Lommy, phantom or Shasta because they are the ones I think look most innocent. Or I could go for Kath, Mira, Runne or Zil, because unless I've messed something up none of them have been reps yet and all of them might do with having to actually vote for a lynch. This requires some thought.. And while I'm thinking, I'd like as many people as possible to post their opinions on who are elves and who are not. Would help a lot.

[Inziladun]

I was going to tell why I voted the way I did, but I won't unless you all want to hear, because it would take up some of my very little time, and I don't want to do that.

I'd like to hear it, when you have time.

Question: Do we think that the elves thought Nogrod was the seer based only on what Fea put into the narration?

Nog did say some things that could have given that impression. Nerwen did a decent analysis of it here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639662&postcount=549).

Also...when I have time, I would like to look into Shasta. Sally said she distrusted him, but that may have just been because he voted for her. But if there's another reason she didn't trust him, then I'd like to find out. The problem is, I may not have very much time, so if anyone else thinks it worth while to look at him...please do.

At the moment, I don't remember what else there might have been. My time is pretty much at a premium also, but I'll try to look at it, especially as DL for picking reps is fast approaching.

What about Legate? He's another person I'll look into. It's odd, but I think I distrust both the people who voted me into Rep position yesterday. I obviously distrusted Wilwa, obvious because I killed her, and I know I distrust Legate. I think it's because I feel they shouldn't have voted for me that day because I had declared I was gone, and they did. I think that's odd and not very explanable, unless Legate really didn't see I was gone.

Since we know Wilwa did the same thing and she was innocent, I can't hold that alone against him too much. It looked rather convenient at the time, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Since you say that, who would have been your first choices?



Soliciting votes, are you? What would your platform be?


Well I wasn't around so I would have to base my pics on old data, but I would probably have gone for somebody like Mira. Not inspired choice, at all. more a case of a choosing a person that puzzles me.

I don't think the reasoning for the lynches, I just never got that "elf vibe" from Wilwa and I thought it unlikely that both Sally and Lottie were wolves.

Anyways I am here, I am very tired, but I should stay around until an hour or two before voting deadline. Hopefully I will be productive.

[Kath]

Hey. I'm actually here for voting! I've got about two hours til it's bedtime for me. So I'll read through what's happened toDay, comment and vote fairly close together.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Here's my current thoughts about people (very rough, though):

Celuien - like I said, I hope to read more from her now that she is here. I don't want to forget her just because she hasn't been posting for a while.
Foley - like I said, inclined to think innocent, and would like to hear her opinions on people (which is what I hoped for also yesterDay already).
Greenie - I had generally good feeling about her, although now that sally's been proven innocent, one could start wondering about her constant case against her. I think it might do me good to re-read her posts sometime.
Kath - I would like to read more from her too. I have very little idea about her.
Lommy - spoke about her before, I still think her probably innocent
Mira - hmmm??? Need to read more from her than just short posts and lists of others' quotes.
Nerwen - I spoke about her also before, I am sort of being made uncertain, aside from Rune, she might be another person to consider my vote for
Phantom - after sally's death, lots of "conspiracy theories" get clearer shape or can be straightaway dismissed. However, I still think (or maybe: especially now I think) that him being a fellow of Lottie is not proven entirely impossible. But he remains the same phantom for me: considering all he's been doing, in some ways curious but not really wolf-y, and with some things seeming more innocent. I want to see him post, though (!!! would have never believed that I'm going to say that), might be that just I started to miss my daily dose of phantomisms...
Rune - questions, questions, questions. See above and all around, actually right now I am not thinking of anything but him (hope you're happy, Rune ;) )
Shasta - still not any particular opinion about him, at least he does not stand out in any way, but neither as SoE nor as innocent.
Steve - from the initial trust I am starting to think of him more like of a person who might be slipping under the radars, which begins to worry me slightly. I don't have any reasons to suspect him, but he sort of stays out of the harm's way.
Zil - he is sort of inquisitive, a bit Boro-like, which now makes me think him more innocentish.

I don't want to stay up too late toDay, so I will probably vote rather early. I hope to see as many posts as I can up to then.

[Kath]

So ... yesterDay. Well that was a tragedy unfortunately! I can see the sense in a double lynch, I'm just not sure I'd have double lynched wilwa and sally, especially as their innocence/guilt seemed tied to each other. That said, most people seemed to be assuming that one or the other would BE evil so whichever had ended up lynched yesterDay, we'd still have been talking about the other toDay. So in that respect it was an effective move.

With regards to what it tells us about Folwren I don't know. I fully believe that her decision was thought through and while she was pressured time-wise she thought very hard about that decision. However, just because she was focused doesn't mean she's not evil.

Nog kill makes sense. Either he was the Seer and the Elves get rid of him or he's not and the Elves have a fairly trailless kill.

Inzil - interesting point about Shasta, but then I think his suspicion of wilwa was increasing with the end of Day events.

Nerwen - I quite like what Nerwen did with the potential Nog dreams ideas. No reason it couldn't be a summary of what the Elves had thought about during the Night but it's still interesting.

Greenie - said she didn't see the points against wilwa. Should check that. Ooh interesting. Elf-phantom could indeed kill Nog to try and exonerate himself. About Rune, I think the bit at the end of that post you found suspicious was joking, it doesn't always come across well in text. Good suspicions post, lots of reasoning.

Lommy - heh, I just repeated pretty much what she said. Yeah phantom probably is more likely to be innocent given sally was. No reason he couldn't be saying 'I always save my fellows' and then cheerfully sending them to the gallows though! A second Day of suspecting Celuien ... when she hadn't been around in a full Day. I'd like to have seen at least a post from Celuien before Lommy brought this up again.

Rune - yeah I agree with him. Folwren doing nothing would have been less useful to analysing the village as a whole than what she did do.

Legate - ... and what he said.

Folwren - yeah she looks pretty good. Not defensive over yesterDay ... but then not overly questioned either. Can see why she'd worry about Legate voting her, but then not everyone checks the admin thread.

Thinking now.

Oh and I should say in warning. I am in uni up til deadline toMorrow. Seriously I WILL NOT be online. Don't make me Rep to make me talk. It won't happen.

[the phantom]

I want to see him post, though (!!! would have never believed that I'm going to say that), might be that just I started to miss my daily dose of phantomisms...
Ha ha! :D

I'm working on it. I just started pg 13, so I have (checks) 56 posts left to go before I can comment on yesterday, the lynches, and the night-kill.

After that I'll take a look at today.

[Kath]

So, regarding potential Reps:

Celuien - YES. I'd have her as Rep. I don't find her suspicious and it would be good to give her a chance to show what she'd do with power. Plus it might give Lommy some actual reasoning behind suspecting her. :rolleyes:

Foley - NO. I'd have her again in the future. I think she did as good a job as could be expected under the circumstances yesterday. But I don't see the need to have one person two days in a row.

Greenie - NO. I like what I've seen from her so far. She posts well and pertinently. But I'd like to check her over a bit more in depth first, just about her opinions on wilwa the last couple of Days.

Lommy - NO. I didn't like the focus on Celuien despite having nothing from her for a whole Day.

Mira - NO. She turned up and posted lots and seemed involved yesterDay. I'd like her to keep that up. But like me I think she'd be pushed for time if a Rep.

Nerwen - DEPENDS. If phantom is one then no, if not then yes. We'd just get 4 pages of argument again!

phantom - see Nerwen.

Rune - NO. I don't know why. Gut feeling.

Shasta - NO. Good loudmouth to keep people involved. But two days running.

Eonwe - NO. Again when he's there he seems really involved so it's good to keep him in the whole Day. But again I don't see the need to have a person two Days running.

Inzil - YES. Again seems to be posting well.

So Celuien, phantom/Nerwen or Inzil.

If Celuien is ok for time then I'd quite like to vote her. If she's short then I'll probably go with Inzil.

Ok, so I'll be about maybe 45 minutes longer. So post, question or tell me about timing issues in that time! Then I'll vote.

[A Little Green]

About Rune, I think the bit at the end of that post you found suspicious was joking, it doesn't always come across well in text.Oh, I'm quite sure he wasn't being 100 % serious, but be it a joke or serious concern the tone of it was slightly eyebrow-raising while the rest of the post was not.

Hmm. It's getting late so I should vote and be off to bed.. Still not sure who I want as my rep toDay though. Not Kath, apparently, if she won't be around - a pity since I'm liking her more with everything she posts.


EDIT: x-ed with another Kath! Yay!

[A Little Green]

I'm debating right now between phantom, Lommy, Rune and Zil. I'm not sure if I should play it safe and vote someone I believe is innocent (the first two) or vote someone I have a hard time reading in hopes of improving the situation (the latter two). Still, even innocents can make the wrong choice.. Argh. I'll still hang around for some fifteen minutes maybe (unless something drastic happens) before deciding.

[A Little Green]

All right. Of the four I mentioned in my previous post..

Not phantom. He's already been a rep, and what is more, I haven't seen his opinions toDay yet so I have no idea who he suspects and who he doesn't - and I'd prefer a rep who thinks even somewhat along the same lines as I do.

Not Lommy. She, too, has already been a rep, and I don't think that much can be learned from her being one again.

Rune or Inzil for me, then. Both kind of shots in the dark. I'd like to know a bit more about both though.

[A Little Green]

Epic quadruple-posting? Come on, guys!

I've decided to go for

++ Inzil for representative

Because I'm really interested in seeing what he will do with the power if he indeed becomes a rep. Also because I hope putting him under some pressure and forcing him to make a decision will help me make out his alignment. In a nutshell: because an innocent Inzil can make a good decision on my behalf, and an evil Inzil will hopefully be revealed. All that could have applied to Runne son of Bjarrne as well, but he's slightly less impossible to read than Inzil which is why I ended up voting the latter.

[Folwren]

I know that it'd be nice if I could get an outline of what I think of people up right now, but I can't. Class starts in about six minutes.

So I'll vote for my rep right now...

++Greenie for rep

and hope that later I'll be able to get on and give my opinion of people. I'm so sorry I'm not much involved today...I have been up since 6:30 today and seriously have had next to NO down time.

-- Foley

X-posted with Greenie's vote

[Kath]

Well I've read back over and looks like Celuien said she was going to be limited on time.

So:
++INZIL for Rep

Which makes him a Rep toDay now I believe. :)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Since I do not think that I am going to learn much more from other people before I head to sleep, I have discounted Foley from my options for the vote for Rep - and also, as it's been noted by others, she has been a Rep last time, so let's change the setting a bit. I am thinking about Rune or Nerwen. Rune I wanted to see for a long time, but this far didn't have the opportunity to do so (or rather, didn't take the opportunity); putting Nerwen into the Rep position would actually help me clarify some more things about her right now. Right now I am inclined to go with Rune, actually, since right now I feel okay with it and if I didn't do it now and remained uncertain of him, then if I wanted to do it later on, with less people, I might not be so sure anymore and rather keep with people I trust more. So yes, I will probably do it, but since I am going to stay around still for a while (a very little while, though), I will check back still and see if anybody else posts, and then vote.

EDIT: x-ed with three votes.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I just looked over all of Mira's posts, not that it says much. . . I think there was 10 or something like that.

Except for not being around I did not find anything overly suspicious about her. I think Boro might have been right when he said that a Mira-Elf would be easy to spot.

Even though the post was short and only covered a few people, I thought that what she said about Phantom in post 505 made sense and that her thoughts about Nog seemed innocent.

I don't know what to make of her large Sally-post, it was terribly long, but mostly just listed things Sally had said without concluding much. If this was a tendency in her posts I would be worried, but for now I think she is al-right.

So yeah. . . I take back what I said earlier about her. She seems OK.

[the phantom]

Inzil- I don't particularly like the way he led off Day 2 asking, "Why is Phantom still alive?" It sounds too much like the subtext is, "Why not kill TP? I would've killed TP. But he's alive. I'm not an Elf." And of course I still don't like his Day 1 comment I mentioned yesterday- his encouragement of people not to Rep-vote. His chief suspects were certainly Wilwa and I, and he said that he wanted Wilwa dead before Sally, but he voted Shasta for Rep (Shasta had been after Sally). I'm not sure if that's suspicious so much as it's... confusing.

Nerwen- I wasn't a fan of her reaction to the Night 1 kill. In post #335 I made Izzy look like a silly choice for the Elves to have made, and Nerwen responds in #339 saying that she was perfectly logical and even Seerish etc, and it almost sounded like someone who was offended justifying their kill- "It was a good kill!", which was of course the reaction I was fishing for. I also don't like that where I keep track of "innocent beliefs" I have pretty much nothing from either of the first two days (honest-to-goodness statements of trust in people, not just agreeing with what they say in other words).

Shasta- My main reason to suspect him is the fact that on Day 1 he was definitely after Sally over Lottie, and then yesterday he really really tried to contradict any theory that placed Sally and I as innocent due to Lottie's lynching. Sort of like he was really wanting to tie his dead pack-mate to Sally or I so that her lynching would not have been in vain. BUT- I'm wanting to not suspect him as much due to his dislike for some of Legate's stuff. Shasta, you said this- "More the point, he voted specifically to save Sally, which makes me want to lynch her more." I had the opposite reaction actually. Remember earlier in the day you said that Legate was "preparing for Sally to flip up innocent or guilty"? Well, I saw his vote to protect Sally as a way to make him look good when she flipped innocent. What do you think?

Legate- I didn't like his Rep vote Day 1 or on Day 2. Day 1 he looked too tentative and yesterday he chose someone that wouldn't be there and had stated a view contrary to his. And then the way he worded his vote was less "Cel is guilty" but rather emphasized "I like Sally". Where as the day before he was willing to find her guilty. So perhaps he saw her fate as sealed already and changed views to look better?

Green- I have little to say here other than she was certainly for lynching Sally over Lottie on Day 1 and sought to keep Sally under the gun yesterday. Plus as Nog often says, she's just creepy.

Rune- I'd really like to see more of him today, and wouldn't mind seeing what he'd do with a Rep vote, though I'll have to see more of his suspicions before I decide whether or not to actually give him my vote. I liked him on the first day and just couldn't get much of anything from him yesterday.

Steve- I'd like to see him be a bit more forceful with accusations and defenses, but he did an excellent job at the end of yesterday with the way he approached the lynch. I don't mean so much that his vote was good, but what he said about his top suspects etc and with them both turning up innocent- it somehow makes me think him extremely innocent.

Lommy- Ah, well, if she's an Elf she can just ride her Day 1 vote to victory, right? Hoo boy... doesn't it make you nervous to write someone off? But yeah, I'm still content to completely leave her alone, and looking forward to reading her thoughts today.

Kath- I've got nothing. I'm thrilled that she showed up and posted, but due to the lack of actual back-and-forth I can hardly claim to have much of a feel for her.

Mira- A bit like Kath. I just really would like to see more from her. And if both Mira and Kath are Elves, well... that would make me angry.

Foley- Her vote was perfect if an Elf, but can hardly be used against her. We put her in a position she never should've been in, and I almost want to give her a free pass through the day on the chance she is an Orc, as that was completely unfair to her.

[Thinlómien]

I'm here and I don't really have almost anything to say. Feeling like going off to bed.
Just -

Kath - I don't intentionally "concentrate" on Cel. I just don't suspect anyone else atm, which is kinda bad.

Since Zil is already a rep, I'm probably going to vote Rune or Nerwen, since both are unsures leaning innocent, which is something I favour in a rep.

Currently speculating phantom-Greenie-Kath pack and that would be quite awesome of them. Not that I really believe in this theory but it's creepy and kind of fits...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

And now I have looked through Celuien's posts and I will have add her on my list of suspects.

She hasn't said much, her first post of considerably substance was post 153 and the things she say here are not unreasonable, but also very uncontroversial and not difficult for an Elf to produce.

When only Boro, Sally and Lottie had received votes she defended the Phantom and stated that she thought the attacks on Lottie and Sally was silly. It could very well be an attempt to save a fellow elf. Again she does not invest a lot in the defence, but chooses to focus her next posts on Boro. Of course she could have just jumped on Sally instead of Boro, it would probably have have been easier, but the problem would be that the cases against Sally and Lottie was more or less identical. It would be hard to argue for the one, but not the other (at least until one of them had been lynched).

It is of course hard to conclude anything from so few posts, but I do think she looks bad.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And then the way he worded his vote was less "Cel is guilty" but rather emphasized "I like Sally". Where as the day before he was willing to find her guilty. So perhaps he saw her fate as sealed already and changed views to look better?
That's the tiny nuances, phantom, but first, if you look, I was thinking, originally, that it was unlikely that she is a Wolf if Lottie was. Later, after Nerwen's post earlier that day, I began to doubt that. But it was on the same day, not the day before, as you say, and actually it was the other way around; later in the Day, I didn't mind so much if she was lynched (as I said: if it came to that there wouldn't be any better option, I could even vote her myself, although it was a rather unlikely possibility), in any case, we'd learn something: but she was still way, way behind other people I would have liked to vote for - and therefore I liked that my vote worked the way that it would need at least two people to vote her (if you imagine yourself in that situation, I cannot imagine a better way of expressing your opinion: I am leaving, some people are still going to vote after me; so I suspect this one more, you need one vote to lynch him, this one I suspect less, you need two votes to lynch him).

EDIT: x-ed with Rune.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, gotta go now.

++Runne son of Bjarrnne for the Rep

See you in the second half of toDay.

[Eönwë]

Sorry everyone, I was going to write a list of all the votes so far and stuff, but I'm just exhausted and have a cold, so just a few comments from me.

As many have said so far, I don't really think we can blame Foley for the lynch. Most people (including me) seemed to be almost certain that one of the two would be evil (though the general consensus was that if one was; the other wasn't, I believe), and if one had been evil, a double lynch would have taken care of the problem. However, if we look at it positively, I think we would have wasted time toDay arguing over whether one of yesterDay's two lynchees (had one survived) was evil, since people suspected them for different reasons.


Also:
By the way, I had a dream
I almost had a heart attack when I read that.

[Eönwë]

The problem is that as the game wears on, I seem to be getting less and less confident about who I find innocent or guilty.

Anyway, I was going to vote Zil as rep, because I want to see more of him, but since he's already one, and I don't really want him to have too much of a supermacy over the others, I'm going to vote someone else that I wanted to see talk more.



So I'm going to vote:

++Rune

Let's see what he does with the power he so craves.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here. I've read up to now, but I've got to have a shower. I'll come back and respond once I've done that.

Right now I'm leaning towards voting the person I think most innocent right now - Nerwen. I'll decide in a bit.

[Thinlómien]

Let's open up another option

++Nerwen for rep

I'll be around more on the second half of the Day and try to figure out whom I suspect.

See you around, I'm off to bed!

PS. Eönwë, sorry for the heart-attack! I didn't mean it to be read that way... :p


edit: xed with Shasticle (that's a really perv nickname btw)

[the phantom]

THE VOTES:
Green-->Inzil
Foley-->Green
Kath-->Inzil (2)
Legate-->Rune
Steve-->Rune (2)
Lommy-->Nerwen

THE REPS:
Inzil
Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Looked over Zil's posts, but in less detail than with Mira and Celuien.

I did not find anything particular incriminating, but I did figure out why I can never get a read on him.

The way Zil likes to construct his posts/theories is by taking what has already been stated by others and agree and/or comment on it. I am not saying that it makes his thoughts any less valuable, but it does make it harder to frame anything on him and it also means that he doesn't stand out. (and on a personal note, it means that I don't remember his posts)

I don't feel good about Zil, but it is not like I have any case against him.

[the phantom]

If it was totally up to me, I'd want the six Reps to be... let's see here... Celuien, Steve, Rune, Lommy, Legate, and Kath. But obviously that's not going to happen.

Hmmm.... Two hours to decide.

[the phantom]

Anyway, I definitely plan to look back at the Day 1 voting, as now we can entirely assume the innocence of the runner up, Sally. And of course we know Boro was innocent as well, meaning that the Day 1 voting was indeed quite clear cut so far as what the baddies would be hoping for.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If it was totally up to me, I'd want the six Reps to be... let's see here... Celuien, Steve, Rune, Lommy, Legate, and Kath. But obviously that's not going to happen.

Hmmm.... Two hours to decide.

Now that you mention it I would love to see Kath as a rep. It would be interesting to see more from her.

++Kath for Representative

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now that you mention it I would love to see Kath as a rep. It would be interesting to see more from her.

++Kath for Representative

KATH SAID SPECIFICALLY TO NOT MAKE HER A REP AS SHE WON'T BE HERE.

This is suspicious.

Just got out of the shower, so to make my vote clear-

++Nerwen

Will respond in a bit.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, I made a mistake then. It is unfortunate, but don't expect that I remember everything that everybody says or that I always get to read all the posts.

[the phantom]

THE VOTES:
Green-->Inzil
Foley-->Green
Kath-->Inzil (2)
Legate-->Rune
Steve-->Rune (2)
Lommy-->Nerwen
Rune-->Kath
Shasta-->Nerwen (2)

THE REPS:
Inzil
Rune
Nerwen

I would suggest not nominating anyone new unless you are quite certain everyone will show up and vote today. There are 13 of us, meaning that SIX is the MAX amount of Reps we can have, and we've already nominated five different people.

[Inziladun]

Inzil- I don't particularly like the way he led off Day 2 asking, "Why is Phantom still alive?" It sounds too much like the subtext is, "Why not kill TP? I would've killed TP. But he's alive. I'm not an Elf." And of course I still don't like his Day 1 comment I mentioned yesterday- his encouragement of people not to Rep-vote. His chief suspects were certainly Wilwa and I, and he said that he wanted Wilwa dead before Sally, but he voted Shasta for Rep (Shasta had been after Sally). I'm not sure if that's suspicious so much as it's... confusing.

You're still wrong about the not-voting vs random-voting, but it's useless to argue.

edit: xed with Shasticle (that's a really perv nickname btw)

That was coined in the previous game, and came from his being locked in a freezer. You should have been there. :p

If it was totally up to me, I'd want the six Reps to be... let's see here... Celuien, Steve, Rune, Lommy, Legate, and Kath. But obviously that's not going to happen.

Now that you mention it I would love to see Kath as a rep. It would be interesting to see more from her.

[highlight++Kath for Representative/highlight]

Kath? Really? I'd be interested to see it too, but not when she explicitly said she wouldn't be around at all the latter half of toDay on this thread.

So, the ones with two votes are Nerwen and Greenie. Both have already been reps, but as a plus they're not on tp's 'want' list, so maybe pretty safe.

++Greenie for rep

because she was nominated by Foley first, and Foley's one of the ones I least suspect at this point.

x/d with Shasta, Rune, and tp.

[Inziladun]

Bah. Said they both have two votes, but I meant one at that time.

[the phantom]

THE VOTES:
Green-->Inzil
Foley-->Green
Kath-->Inzil (2)
Legate-->Rune
Steve-->Rune (2)
Lommy-->Nerwen
Rune-->Kath
Shasta-->Nerwen (2)
Inzil-->Green (2)

THE REPS:
Inzil
Rune
Nerwen
Green

LEFT TO VOTE:
Celuien
Mira
Nerwen
Phantom

[the phantom]

Well, guess what? I just missed the deadline. :rolleyes:

[the phantom]

Well, if Kath indeed cannot be around at all to vote, I guess it wouldn't have done me any good to make it back in time for the deadline anyway, as she would've been the only person I could've made a Rep. Bleh. Whatever.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Zil, Greenie, Rune, and Nerwen are your Reps. Enjoy the power bestowed upon you by the masses.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay.

[the phantom]

REP VOTES ALL THREE DAYS:

Celuien--> Foley, (----), (----)
Foley--> Celuien, (----), Green
Green--> Nerwen, Steve, Inzil
Inzil--> Boro, Shasta, Green
Shasta--> Izzy, Nerwen, Nerwen
Nerwen--> Lommy, Shasta, (----)
Lommy--> Green, Nog, Nerwen
Steve--> Green, Legate, Rune
Rune--> Lommy, Steve, Kath
Legate--> Nerwen, Foley, Rune
Kath--> (----), (----), Inzil
Mira--> Phantom, (----), (----)
Phantom--> Celuien, Legate, (----)

MUTUAL VOTES:
Celuien & Foley (*)
Rune & Steve (*)
Green (*) & Steve
Green & Inzil (*)
Nerwen & Shasta (*)
Nerwen & Lommy (*)

We can only guess as to whether or not the Elves are concerned with direct voting ties like this. If they're looking to tie Orcs to them in case they're lynched, then the suspicious of the two votes will be the second one that links the pair (I marked the second player to vote with a star).

VOTING TRIANGLES:

Legate-->Rune-->Steve

A triangle, with Steve voting for both other members instead of one.

Lommy-->Green-->Nerwen

A triangle, with a double bond between Lommy-Nerwen.

VOTING TANGLES:

Green for Nerwen & Inzil, Inzil for Green & Shasta, Shasta for Nerwen, Nerwen for Shasta

So basically what we have there is one mutual pair (Green-Inzil) voting for another mutual pair (Nerwen-Shasta). Plus each mutual pair has a member with another mutual voter, Green-Steve and Lommy-Nerwen.

CONCLUSIONS:

Um....? Well, the obvious answer is that we have no idea what the Elves have decided to do, so who knows? But if we were to go with the simple idea that Elves want each other in power and wish to tie themselves to innocents, then you possibly have a Green-Inzil-Steve grouping trying to tie themselves to Shasta, Nerwen, Rune, and Legate?

Bleh, I'm too tired to think about this stuff. Too much to do and no sleep to fuel me. I'll come back after I get some work done.

[the phantom]

Okay, now that Sally is dead and all, it is time to go back to Day 1-

We have two choices here- assume there were NO Elves elected, or assume there was an Elf (or Elves) present in the voting. We know for a fact at this point that both of the candidates running against Lottie were innocent, and so the desires of the Elves would be quite clear on that first day (to vote or encourage a vote away from Lottie).

If the Elves were playing straight up, that would mean the following could be showing Elf colors-

Green- Voted Sally
Celuien- Voted Boro
Nerwen- Voted Sally & Boro
Shasta- Push Sally over Lottie

(And I see in my post above that Green, Nerwen, and Shasta are linked by Rep votes as well.)

I'm still not completely buying anyone who was pushing Sally over Lottie that first day. Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!! Obviously I couldn't say anything about it at the time, but it did really really annoy me that the thought didn't occur to more. People never vote completely and totally randomly. It is always based upon something. And so if someone comes on and votes before any posts have been made, the first conclusion my mind leaps to is that the person already has information!

Now, as the day went along naturally my knee-jerk reaction cooled, and I realized that her odds of being the Seer were still not terribly high given the size of the village, but still, it was a possibility that I could not discount, and she was certainly higher on the potential list than most. I mean, how big an idiot would I be if I let a Seer who had dreamed of me die? My talk of Boro being a safe candidate that day- I really did mean it. He was one person that I was pretty well certain was not the Seer, and that's the main reason I preferred his lynch. For me Day 1 wasn't about lynching an Elf so much as it was about not lynching the Seer. You know me- always fear the worst.

Now, as Day 2 rolled along I watched Sally carefully and was able to cross her off my potential Seer list, and so I wasn't so worried about her lynch after that (though I still thought her innocent). But yesterday aside, it still doesn't take away from what happened Day 1, and I can't help but wonder if someone who pushed or actually tried to lynch Sally over Lottie wasn't in fact quite aware that Lottie was the safer choice.

Of course I realize that this theory of mine has about zero chance of being acted upon considering two of the four Rep voters are among those I am accusing. :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

Firstly, apologies for the non-vote. I couldn't get online in time.

Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!!

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

[Nerwen]

Not that I'm complaining about your looking at those of us who voted someone other than Lottie. Fair enough. I mean any SoE among the reps wouldn't be too pleased at having one of their own Fenrissed, obviously. I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too.

By the way: you still don't have "known Orc" status in my eyes, phantom. I've said why the Night-kill tends to support your innocence, but also why it doesn't prove it.

[the phantom]

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.
I wasn't trying to imply that she was, but rather- someone could try and take advantage of making an "idiot-move" banking on people thinking it is stupid and thus discounting it, you know? Sally being who she is, I definitely didn't think I could discount it at the time.
By the way: you still don't have "known Orc" status in my eyes, phantom. I've said why the Night-kill tends to support your innocence, but also why it doesn't prove it.
Yes yes, I'm not dead yet, and so can't be "known". Certainly. But given both the night-kill and my Day 1 abstaining from the vote, I would at the least hope I'm solidly in the lower half of suspects.
Not that I'm complaining about your looking at those of us who voted someone other than Lottie. Fair enough. I mean any SoE among the reps wouldn't be too pleased at having one of their own Fenrissed, obviously.
Yes, I'm really hoping there was an Elf voting on Day 1. I want there to be a trail. And speaking of trails, I very much hope that both Kath and Mira aren't Elves.

[the phantom]

Early morning tomorrow, so off to bed. I'll try and check in and read sometime in mid to late morning, but if there is a lot of action I may not have time to respond until lunch. I'll be around as often as I can after that.

[A Little Green]

The problem is that as the game wears on, I seem to be getting less and less confident about who I find innocent or guilty.This seems to be a common problem in this village.. :rolleyes:
Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay. Seriously, what is it with this game??
Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!!
Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.It did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.
I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too. Which part of it, exactly?

[A Little Green]

I need to get some studying done now, but I'll be back later and hopefully have enough time to analyse someone.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I will be near my computer most of the day, but I am afraid I won't have time for a lot of in depth analysis. Though I hope that I will have time to look over the posts of Nerwen, Greenie and Shasta.

And I might as well make it clear now that I do not want to vote for Phantom or Lommy.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feamoddess
Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay.
Seriously, what is it with this game??
Like she said, we're under a curse.

Originally Posted by phantom
Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!!
It did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.
For my part, I thought it would be a good idea to lynch one of them, and I didn't really care which.

Originally Posted by Nerwen
I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too.
Which part of it, exactly?
Well, all of it– that is, you seemed rather keen to dispute a case against you that really barely existed in the first place. I mean, I thought I'd made it clear that I only mentioned the possibility of "Seer"–Nog supposedly dreaming A Little Green Elf because I didn't want to leave anything out, rather than because I thought it at all likely. But maybe it didn't look that way to you.

[Folwren]

I'm about to head to work, but I've been looking at Shasta's posts for the past ten minutes or so, and for how hard he lobbied against Sally and Lottie that first day, I'm inclined to believe that he's not an SoE. If he had been, he would have steered people's attention away from Lottie if at all possible, and he certainly did not.

So, that's my opinion on one person....

-- Foley

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs713.snc4/63370_161740303836373_100000012124034_513961_72190 14_n.jpg

[Folwren]

Um.............this is turning out REALLY bad. All of our ordos are dying randomly and no elves are falling by the wayside.

[Inziladun]

Do the Elves have the aid of some 'divine' powers, or something? :rolleyes:

Anyway, I'm swamped at work, but I'll do my best to look things over later before I vote. I'd like the input of my constituents if possible (not that I promise to go along with your suggestions, just so you know).

I won't be voting toDay for Mira (since she's apparently a victim of the Curse), or Foley, since she really looks the most innocent at the moment.

[Mirandir]

People I think are innocent:
Phantom
Nerwen
Shasta
Mira

People I suspect so are thus probably innocent:
Foley

People I tend to trust so are thus probably furry:
Kath
Rune
Steve

People I don't particularly have feelings on:
Greenie
Legate
Lommy
Zil

I'll elaborate more on that later, but the meeting I woke up for was cancelled so I'll be going back to bed now and hopefully not waking up again until my afternoon meeting.

[Thinlómien]

That was coined in the previous game, and came from his being locked in a freezer. You should have been there.Seems like that. :D Poor Shasta!

Somehow I feel malicious since tp missed a deadline. :p

Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!! Obviously I couldn't say anything about it at the time, but it did really really annoy me that the thought didn't occur to more. People never vote completely and totally randomly. It is always based upon something. And so if someone comes on and votes before any posts have been made, the first conclusion my mind leaps to is that the person already has information!No. First off, I would never expect the seer to be so careless even if it was Sally and secondly no one else than you could have made assumptions based on your innocence because you are the only one who knows it. (This is not to say your innocence is a fact but I just can't bother to write this in a more speculative way because it's difficult to phrase and you should get my point in any case.)

And AAAAAARGH with the modfires. Since we have already lost three ordos, can't we get one wolf modfired just to be fair?!!

And there goes my last suspect, too, proven innocent. :rolleyes:

This game is beginning to be hopeless from my part. The only positive stuff I can come up with:
- I just became quite sure Steve is a wolf - someone has to be
- our seer is still alive
- I just managed to analyse my lack of motivation in this game: not enough visible necessity to work hard and seemingly not enough clues (because of the lesser amount of votes) but given the latest modfire I think I'm getting my motivation back slowly... we just can't afford to give up. Also, thanks to tp for making an effort toDay by those vote analyses, it made me feel a bit more hopeful.

[Nerwen]

- I just became quite sure Steve is a wolf - someone has to be
Ah, now why Steve?

[Nerwen]

And what do you think of Greenie and Legate?

[Thinlómien]

To be really helpful -

No idea why Steve. There's something troublingly smooth in his manner and choices when it comes to suspicions and votes etc.

And no idea about Greenie and Legate. Currently thinking Legate is probably innocent and very unsure about Greenie.

:rolleyes:

I think I need a good reread, or at least a good reread of the complete vote tallies. Now I'm off to read a book, do the dishes and have dinner, but I'll be back in a few hours to start doing something about my disturbing blankness of my wolf list.

Nerwen - do you have any idea about whom you're going to vote toDay yet?

[the phantom]

I'll be home and able to post in an hour or so. I'm posting now just to say-

GAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

(responding to the modfire)

Now we have two fewer days to catch the culprits than we originally had! Which is another reason I'm against multi-lynches in the early going. We're best served to extend the game as long as possible and gain as many night-kills and votes as we can to use as evidence. Anyway... yeah... stop dying people. If you can't participate any more, just show up once a day and vote me for Rep. Even if you aren't certain of my innocence you at least would help the tally that way.

[the phantom]

Okay, so, when I add up my suspicion post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639723&postcount=589) and my Rep-votes post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639752&postcount=613) and my Day 1 lynch-vote post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639753&postcount=614), what do I end up with?

RATHER SUSPICIOUS ORCS:
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen

PARTLY SUSPICIOUS ORCS:
Legate
Steve

LESS SUSPICIOUS ORCS:
Lommy
Rune

NO READ ORCS:
Foley
Mira
Kath

[Folwren]

During lunch break, I read some of Day2, and most of what I read was the ongoing discussion between Nerwen and Phantom. I am not quite sure what to make of it all, but as you two are fairly constant players, I figured I may as well ask the questions that were bothering me...

Nerwen, why did you press Phantom so hard about being the seer? It seemed very important to you that he have an explenation for making his last minute seer-confesion/reveal thing on Day 1. Why so? Were you trying to decipher whether or not he really WAS the seer? Why was it so important to you? If you think it links him to an elf, then say so, please.

At first I thought your split vote on day 1 was suspcious, but after considering it for a while I think that this was an un-elvish thing to do, because if you had wanted to save Lottie, who at that point had three votes and I don't think anyone else did, you could've given both your votes to Sally or something like that. I can't remember numbers exactly.

But harping on and on about Phantom seems strange to me. Please explain.

While looking through Day1, I found something which strengthens my opinion that Inzil is not an elf:

That's the way I see the Sally and Lottie votes too. I don't know whether tp is a SoE, but I flat-out disagree with him on this. And it feels likely that there's a SoE among the three of them.

I don't think an elf would draw attention to that. If anything, they'd try to draw attention away. Or...as Mirandir did, join in the fray without really drawing any guilty attention to herself. Why is she considered clear of the radar? Because in the past, Mir has acted crazily excited when she's bad? Hm...

Phantom, how is it you've missed voting so many times this game? That's insane.

In all honesty, I don't think he is guilty. I think if he had been, he would've tried to save Lottie. I know Nerwen said, "baddies have said before, "if I were a wolf, I wouldn't act in such a way" or "if I were a wolf, I would've done this."" but still....to let a fellow wolf get killed that first day? Seems risky and unloyal to me - unless there was some greater cause that she was being sacrificed for, which I don't currently see.

Quite honestly, I think we have a wolf among our quieter set of people. Good luck finding that stuff out.

So...that whole post to say:

Phantom - probably innocent
Inzil - probably innocent
Nerwen - a little questionmark, but also probably innocent.

Sorry I've got nothing better. My time is so scattered that my reading of the thread is scattered, too. It took me almost two hours to compose this post.

X-posted with Phantom

-- Foley

[Folwren]

Maybe I'll look at Kath next....after I study my science more.

[A Little Green]

Well, all of it– that is, you seemed rather keen to dispute a case against you that really barely existed in the first place. I mean, I thought I'd made it clear that I only mentioned the possibility of "Seer"–Nog supposedly dreaming A Little Green Elf because I didn't want to leave anything out, rather than because I thought it at all likely. But maybe it didn't look that way to you.Ah well. I misunderstood you, then. I thought that while you didn't find it probable, you still definitely considered it a possibility - and since I didn't find it a possibility that made sense, I ventured to point that out.

I'll be here for an hour or two now before going to sleep. This obviously means that I have to vote in an hour or two.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sorry that I missed toDay, although looking at this thread (didn't have time to read it yet, but the fact that only about half a page has been posted since yesterDay evening and that there is that nice comic strip in the middle tell me enough) I don't seem to be the only one missing, or not missing much. I want to re-read stuff and then post soon enough, but first I have to check how does it look with the Tolkien reading planned on this evening (see other threads). Ah well, busy times, busy times... :(

[Kath]

Ahem, so uh ... hi. Apparently, I've had the deadline wrong in my head ever since this game started and well, as you can see I'm here. So while I'm not a Rep despite Rune's strange efforts I am around if anyone has questions etc.

[Folwren]

Kath

In her post 460 where she analyzes a lot of people, I think she went to good lengths to figure each person out and her summaries make sense. In 461, she voiced her conclusions. Three of her four unknowns have been proven to be innocent. One of of her leaning towards guilty has been proven innocent, and Inzil is the second one. So far, she looks fine to me...

Problem...she voted for Inzil to be rep the next day....she says he is posting well... on the otherhand, I know that, being a giftedless innocent, one's mind can easily be changed from thinking someone guilty to thinking they're innocent and vice-versa, so maybe it's not a problem.

I'm curious about if she can pinpoint her gut feeling about Rune. Kath? If you're around will you explain?

And that's all I've got on her. She seems alright to me.

Hey, look! I cross posted with Kath herself...and Legate.

[Kath]

Cross-posted with Foley there.

I'm curious about if she can pinpoint her gut feeling about Rune. Kath? If you're around will you explain?
Quite honestly I can't at the moment. I may go and find all his posts and look through them properly, see if it was just gut feeling or if there was something that triggered it.

[Eönwë]

Well that's just depressing. Three innocents (well, as far as orcs can be) cursed by unknown forces? What's going on?

I'm just going to reread the Day before I comment any further, and hopefully make that vote-list.

[A Little Green]

Right. I've had a quick look at Nerwen. This is not a proper analysis as I will not even try to report everything she's posted (that would be insane with her over sixty posts). I'm only bringing out a few points from Days 1 and 2 that I found worth notice.

Day 1: Spends most of her time questioning Lottie and phantom, mainly on the subject of phantom and whether or not it makes sense to vote him for rep. (Her almost full concentration on that issue would be eyebrow-raising if it wasn't for the fact that everyone else was doing it too.) Votes Lommy for rep.The way phantom keeps changing his mind about what his "ploy" was supposed to accomplish (sorry, don't have time to quote now) is quite eyebrow-raising, but unless he does something impossibly Elfish, he's pretty safe from the lynch toDay (with his three votes). And Lottie is puzzling me quite a lot. But then, in the opposite corner, there is also Boro– it's true he's being strange too, though I'd want to see more of him.

Oh, and Mirandir. Her vote was weird.What gave me a pause here are her really careful choices of words: Boro ”strange”, Lottie ”puzzling”, Mira's vote ”weird”. It would be really convenient for an elf, especially one who is a rep, to voice her suspicions in a way that enables "logical" reactions both ways; looking back on these, it would be as consistent to say "see, I suspected him/her already then!" or "I only found him/her odd, that doesn't equal suspicious." I might really be just reading too much into them though..

She then considers lynching either Boro or one of the phantom-supporters. Votes: Arrrgh. My internet is showing signs of imminent death. So much as I'd like to chew the fat of who-knows-what-creature with my fellow politigoblins, I'm going to have to vote now.

++Boro for the lynch
++Sally for the lynch. The vote situation at the time was as follows:
Lottie (3)
Sally (2)
so after her vote it was:
Lottie (3)
Sally (3)
Boro (1)

What interests me here is why she voted Sally instead of Lottie. She said this toDay: For my part, I thought it would be a good idea to lynch one of them, and I didn't really care which. If you really didn't care which, wouldn't it have made more sense to give the vote to Lottie who was on the lead, ensuring that one of them did indeed end up lynched? Of course, even with the situation she created (Lottie and Sally in a draw, Boro with two votes less - and the general atmosphere quite anti-Sally&Lottie) it looked quite probable that one of them indeed ends up lynched. Still, why not strive to make it sure if it really made no difference to her?

Day 2: Says, twice, that Izzy was the one she expected to find dead. My initial thought was that an elf would never ever say that. My second one was that a cunning one might, if only to create a sense of there being nothing to analyse in the Night-kill. Hmm. Still, I'm more inclined to find this particular comment innocentish.

She then proceeds to question phantom about his so-called Seer-reveal, and ends up having a rather long and heated argument with him about it. While I agree with her that the matter certainly needed to be discussed, the extent to which she takes it looks a bit suspicious. The elves don't want the village to analyse them. So what better a way to distract everyone than turn all attention on the phantom? Of course such a big argument is bound to draw some attention to herself as well, but in rather a safer way than the regular analysing and moderately suspecting different people.

Votes Shasta for representative. No surprises there.

On the second half of Day 2 she provides a sharp analysis on Sally, Lottie and phantom. Also analyses Wilwa:Comments: Wilwa posts a lot without saying much; general tone of breathless gaiety is reminiscent of her wolf-style; only starts suspecting Lottie when the latter is clearly in trouble. So yeah, she might be a wolf– but surely only if Sally isn't, because otherwise voting them both would be an insane risk.

Conclusions? Nerwen has kind of slipped under my radar before this - or rather, I pay attention to her posts and actions but forget to consider her alignment and motives. Trying to do so has resulted in her getting to a "leaning evil" -category. The problem is, most of what she does would make sense as both innocent and elf. (Captain Obvious! Yay!) I hope she'll be around to answer a few questions before I need to vote, otherwise I might really be tempted to vote her.

[Kath]

So, Rune:

1) Banter. Says we should make phantom work for attention.

2) Likes Legate and Lommy. Legate for sound reasoning and Lommy for being bitter and twisted. A cross Lommy has previously meant a wolvish Lommy, but that's to me, might not be to Rune.

3) Indeed he says that he doesn't think Lommy evil.

4) Votes Lommy Rep. Fair enough given he's focused on her in the last two posts and considers her innocent as a result.

5) 'Here' post.

6) Playing hinting games with phantom about possibly being an SoE ... 'a product of certain historical events'. This is the second time he said this. Maybe that's what was prickling at me.

7) Arguing about not limiting power for Reps. Voting for beliefs is actually pretty much what the Reps have done anyway so this post was a little worried-about-nothing but then he didn't know that at the time.

8) Said Boro's change of playing style didn't feel natural, was surprised at his actions. We know Boro to be innocent now so could be a wolf pushing suspicion at Boro. Likes Foley, Legate (consistent) and Nog. Suspicious of Glirdan, again we now know he's innocent, and Greenie and Eonwe for not committng themselves.

9) 'Gone' post.

10) Continued to argue against Boro.

11) Thought about voting for someone hard to read. Thinks phantom is not particularly suspicious. If evil, and mates with phantom, could be trying to protect him. But of course could be innocent and accidentally defending an Elf or innocent and defending an innocent! Yet another case where only death makes it clear.

12) Defended wilwa, whom we know was innocent, and mentions he supports double lynches.

13) Thinks it unlikely sally would be an Elf given Lottie was one, but says it wouldn't be impossible. Pretty much what everyone was thinking at that point.

14) Replying to Nerwen saying while you might get one bold SoE on day 1 you're unlikely to get two working as a team.

15) List post. Suspects Greenie, Glirdan and sally. So two the same and sally almost an afterthought as he wasn't convinced she'd be an SoE given Lottie was. Maybe he thought she was the Undecided Orc? If considering Rune to be an Elf, I would wonder about his opinions on Eonwe. Think it's a little odd he mentioned voting him as Rep when he's in the 'no idea' list not the 'feeling alright' list.

16) Votes Eonwe.

17) 'Here' post.

18) Understands the lynch though he wouldn't have gone for those people first. Well wilwa was not in his suspicions list so fine, sally was but was third so fair enough. Thinks Foley did fine.

19) Answers Greenie about his 'hope this isn't suspicious' joke.

20) Volunteers himself for Rep.

21) Says he'd have voted for Mira for being puzzling. Hmm, maybe this was it. I think I wondered why he said this when he'd had two people down as suspicious and neither of them was Mira.

22) Then says he's looked at Mira's posts and found nothing suspicious. All seemed a little odd.

23) Now Celuien has suddenly popped up as suspicious. Says she defended sally and Lottie and attacked Boro instead. Umm, Rune also suspected Boro that Day ... though dropped that before Day's end. Heard nothing more about Greenie or Glirdan in this time who were on his actual suspect list.

24) Looked at Inzil, feels he's suspicious but found no reasoning.

25) Said he'd like to see me as Rep. Votes for me.

26) Defends his vote.

27) Says he won't vote phantom or Lommy, and will look at Nerwen, Greenie and Shasta. Well he's looking at the village pretty thoroughly then.

So:
Think I figured out that uneasy feeling. It's the way he mentions suspects and then seems to totally discard them. Greenie and Glirdan from the first Day for example.

[A Little Green]

Are any of my fellow reps around? If so, who are you considering for toDay's lynch? (I have no interest in this ending up a four-way draw or something like that.)


EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Inziladun]

Ah, now why Steve?

While I have some time, let's look at Steve.

Day 1

So, I was trying to read everything posted before I did, but it seems like I'm trying to climb to the top of an ever-growing mountain.


That would be like holding the record for the longest jump on the Moon- totally irrelevant. In fact, let's make it a Day 1 first and totally ignore phantom for a whole Day... well, actually, it's too late for that now that he's been voted in, but we should've.



Well, he only made that promise after you voted for him. Innocent mistake or a sneaky Elvish excuse for justifying voting phantom?


If he acted (even remotely) consistently (other than attention-seeking, of course), he wouldn't be the phantom. Or of course, he could double bluff and just be hinting to the Sons of Elrond that he's the Undecided so that they don't kill him (yet). Or he could begin pretending to hint to them to save himself. Or... well... there's too many possibilities. We'll just have to see what happens.

I agree with you about it being a bad idea, but you can't deny that it would be quite interesting.


"Hearts"? What are we, Elves? *Punches playfully in the face*


It's true. People seem to tend to lose steam about half way through the second half of the Day.


Definitely. This makes Inzil look good. Though, on the other hand, few votes means that the Elves can monopolise the voting.


Have you ever spoken to an angry wolf?


It would be quite funny if they were just playing with us like that, wouldn't it?



Really? We just get 24 hours as usual. Of course, the "I didn't have time to read the thread so I won't comment at all" excuse is more likely to disappear.

Also, an interesting thing would be to see what happens if the Undecided becomes a Rep toDay... er... toOrcWakingCycle.

First post, responding to various people. The second and third snippets are directed at Lottie. In the second, he brings up the idea that Lottie could have been trying to justify her Elvish self for voting tp. He wasn't the first one to question Lottie's vote, certainly, but he does leave it open for an innocent interpretation also.
He also there agrees with me about it being better to not vote for rep than make one at random.

You can have some of this one *hands Boro a few scattered vertebrae*


I don't like this at all. All this talk about power makes you seem like you're trying to sh


And what about the other options? For example, not basing our Day around the phantom and actually trying to catch some elves. Isn't that what we're trying to do? It's much too early to be turning this into a power-contest, especially since all of us (save five) know nothing, and really have nothing to base anything on.

Also, you speak as if the phantom is on his own team, and, while it is true that it might seem as such, in the end he will b helping one team to win. All this talk of "appeasing" him is pointless- we shouldn't have to bribe him onto our side. If he's an Elf, then he'll just be pretending to be, and if he's an orc then he already should be. And if it's power he wants, he should be the one that has to work to convince us of his innocence.

And finally, this:

So this is basically a case of saying "See, I could be a good representative *hint hint*, but look, I'm voting Lommy for the same job, so it doesn't look like I'm advocating myself too much, and it looks like I'd rather have someone else in charge instead because I 'think' she might be better than me, though I'll still do the job if you rally want me." Or at least, that' what it would mean if you're sneakily trying to get voted for rep, though you could still be innocent and trying to gain power.


I know this post is totally focused on Boro's, but it just seemed wrong in so many ways!


This, on the other hand I kind of agree with:

I.e., we've been so focused on phantom, that we haven't even discussed other candidates or possible voting strategies, and by that I mean whether we want many 'weak' representatives (in which case we might as well just be a normal village), or a few 'powerful' representatives (which is much more risky because one of them could be a wolf, but could also be a strong force for good), or perhaps a mix (which is probably what will happen. But would that be good?

This was in response to Boro, and Steve doesn't appear to care for Boro's words, aside from agreeing that all focus shouldn't be on tp.

I'm going to need to go soon, but I'm considering choosing Legate or Zil as rep. Possibly Lommy, if she can convince me, but that would be a bit too much of an anti-phantom move, which is just as bad as the original pro-phantom move at the beginning of the Day.

Looking at Legate, me, or Lommy for rep.

Though I have to admit that it's Boro that turned voting Lommy into a purely anti-phantom move. So maybe he's trying to make us not vote too anti-phantom (seems the general consensus these days, which makes it a bit of a bangwaggon) and vote him instead, who he portrays as the second best anti-phantomer. Or maybe I'm just reading reading Boro all wrong. I don't know if he'd be that obvious. But if I'm not, I definitely don't like what he's doing by trying to manipulate the Day (maybe even more than the phantom).

In fact, because of him, the anti-phantom bandwaggon now almost seems worse to me than the pro-phantom bandwaggon at the beginning. Or maybe he's just trying to make it seem that way.



And if both Boro and phantom are wolves... :eek:

Thinks Boro is trying to make an "anti-phantom bandwaggon, which Steve doesn't care for.

Yes, contest. And with no personal gain whatsoever.

Though that was a kind of clever way to stop so many people voting for you so soon, wasn't it?

Some questioning of tp.

Considering voting for rep:
Legate
Zil
Greenie

Also look quite good:
Foley
Lommy

THE CENTRE OF ATTENTION:
The Phantom

Will not vote:
Boro (I have no idea about his alignment, but I don't like his whole "I'll negate phantom" thing)


I'm not sure about other people yet.

No longer considering Lommy for rep (because of Boro?), but still thinks she 'looks quite good'. Won't vote Boro because of his anti-tp platform.

Actually, I'm not sure about Zil. His not voting point seemed good at first, but it may well be something that could help the Elves. Then again, it seemed well-meaning at the time. He was also the first person to suggest not voting, which might be something too obvious for a wolf. Though he may have just been trying to lure unsuspecting innocents (or at least, true orcs) to agree with him, and therefore make them look suspicious (and if someone didn't vote for this reason, would also mean less orc-votes). On the other hand, it seems more to me like he's advocating thinking/waiting until people have actually started posting before voting (instead of doing a Sally), which is just reasonable.

In any case, even if there is a chance he's evil, it might be a good idea to vote him in as a representative to force him out of the shadows (both literally and figuratively).

Changes his mind about whether I or tp was right about the rep-voting deal. Seems rather flip-floppy here overall, and says I should be considered for rep.

So it's good to vote randomly because having an SoE as a rep this early is useful later, but also because you're less likely to get one?

Then goes back to questioning tp about the latter's statement that one is more likely to vote an SoE the longer one waits (writer's note- :rolleyes:)

It does, but then what's the point of having representatives if you're just effectively shrinking the village to half its size?

In response to Wilwa. Honestly, I don't quite get what she was talking about, but it's after lunch and I'm a bit sleepy.

I think they'll probably want to be reps as late in the game as possible. However obvious that may sound, my point is that on Day 2, the reps will be under less scrutiny than on Day 1, and so on, because there will be more other things to go on (in terms of suspicion). So, as well as being more important later on, I think the Elves will want to reps later because they'll have less focus on them.

Thinks the SoE's would rather be reps later than sooner, because they'd be under more scrutiny later on. I see his point, but to me nothing's as concrete for analysis as people's votes.

Well, out of Legate and Greenie, I'm going to vote

[highlight++Greenie[/highlight



Because I like her reasoning and don't think that she's evil.

Votes Greenie for rep, who he'd replaced Lommy with in his top choices.

Why is everyone focusing on either giving the phantom power or negating him? can't we just treat him like a normal representative.

So here Inzil is basically repeating Boro's post about balancing phantom with others, even down to the same suggestion of people: Boro and Lommy. I don't know why, but I don't like the implications of this. Of course, he does also mention Wilwa, but he's still mentioning the same thing. If we make phantom the centre of the game we won't be able to catch any elves.

Seems a bit hypocritical, as he himself had made tp his main topic earlier.

And since everyone's been commenting on it, I just want to say:
Basically, I hope that this was just a joke/spoof that your later comments were just a continuation. In my opinion, it is almost always better to wait (if possible) until people have actually posted before voting, so that you can see what you think of them.

Hm... It takes one to know one. The elves always accuse others of using "elf trick"s as you call them.

Defends Boro somewhat against tp.


Not really, it just sounds like he wants a bit of excitement as opposed to boring, planned out rules for voting each Day. Basically, for everyone to vote what they want without having to think of tactics. Which would certainly make this game far more interesting (whether or not it decreases our chances of winning).



Now this is quite a good point.



But then, if they weren't evil, they'd just get Night-killed.

I didn't want to mention it, but if we do that then it's pretty obvious that if they're not evil they'll get Night-killed. Unless the Elves want to confuse us by not doing so.

Also, I'm not sure if the second "who" was meant to be a "we", but if it was, I just think that it will be very unlikely for us as a whole to reach a consensus on who is trustworthy (That's the whole point of having more than representative), and anyway, as I just said, they'd get quickly picked off by the wolves.


Isn't the Undecided Orc still a true orc even if he works for the elves? Just saying.


Something always happens on Day 1. It doesn't have to be two people voting within the first 20 posts on Day 1. And as you can see, that's kept the attention on them the whole Day (and you too, but I'm sure you enjoy that).

Responding to Izzy, Nog, Lottie and tp x 2. He notes to tp that the UoUA is still an Orc whoever he sides with.

So, changes in how I view people:

Rune- looks generally innocent.
Shasta - Looks good now, but seemed a bit evil to me at first
Inzil - A few things every so often make me loose a little faith in his innocence, but he still seems good.
Nerwen - Looks very good- too good in fact. Especially since she seems to be jumping on the anti-phantom/Lottie logic bandwaggon
Legate- I like what he's saying, but he seems a bit unusual to me.
Wilwa- There's definitely something wrong here. A hint of Elvishness or something.
Izzy- Looks generally innocent but I don't agree with some of her logic.


And I still don't like Boro.


All other people are under my radar and/or should post more.


A few comments:

The fact that Boro (who I don't think looks innocent) suggested Lommy makes Lommy seem good, because firstly, it seems a little too obvious (trying to get a packmate voted as rep, an anti-phantom in this case); and secondly, she was already popular and looked good, so I think he just latched onto that because she's be an easy person to suggest as the anti-phantom).

The phantom actually doesn't look evil- I just disagree with most of what he's saying, and one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons. However, maybe he's trying to cause controversy to root out the elves. And anyway, it would be a bit pointless to lynch him toDay anyway, when we have nothing against him except his disagreeable posts that advocate/advertise voting for him.

Mira's vote: This is where Zil's "no vote is better than a pointless vote" comes in. What if (however unlikelily) the Seer had come out of hiding and declared phantom an elf. Votes like that would just be sentencing us to doom.

Another thing I've noticed is the phantom-Boro-Inzil triangle. Boro and Inzil attacks phantom, and Inzil even votes Boro for rep. I don't like it at all. It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play.

I will be very annoyed if it turns out that phorc, Sally and Lottie are both Elves. As I believe Greenie said earlier, it's quite likely that one of the two (particularly Sally or Lottie) are wolves, as it would be an almost perfect disguise,

On that note, on the phantom and Lottie teamwork (trying to defend their side): they seem a bit too obvious to be elves, but that's exactly the sort of completely bold and reckless move the phantom would try.


Basically, if I were a rep, I think that I would definitely lynch Boro, but for some reason Izzy doesn't seem so benign to me now either.

Doesn't like Boro, and posits that he and I are Elves working in concert against tp. Thinks tp probably isn't evil, but says "those against him are all good". Even Boro and me? Also thinks either Sally and Lottie are wolves. Ends by saying he would lynch Boro, but doesn't like Izzy either.

Day 2

I personally think that makes her more suspicious, because if she was an elf she'd be voting for her packmate, which makes her look better, but because she only used one vote out of the two, she could've just been trying to look good while not decisively trying to lynch her, which would be a good cover for an Elf.


Looks like you're trying too hard.


So that the wolves would think that.

Responding to tp x 2 and Nerwen.

Basically, I'm not sure what to think about the phantom-Nerwen argument, but there's something about it that makes me think that they're both on the same side. Either they're fighting Orcs, or both very cunning Elves trying to dominate the Day by confusing all of us. And since they're both very experienced and cunning players, I wouldn't put it past either of them.

Though, obviously, the most probable option is that they're both Orcs that just don't agree (as we know happens so often).

So phantom, why didn't you vote?

And saying "in order to allow Lottie to be lynched" is not a satisfactory answer. If you are an Orc and truly believed her to be an Elf, it would've made sense to vote her as well (though it might have looked as though you were an Elf just attaching yourself to her death which was already happening, but if you're an Orc then that shouldn't matter because it's more important to lynch Elves than save yourself from possible future accusations). And the other option would be to vote someone else, which would either be a throwaway vote (Which would look suspicious), or could take someone else down too (Which could also look suspicious, as though you want to take an innocent down as well as one of your fellows, if you were an Elf.)

Anyway, my point is that whatever you would've voted would've most likely been criticised or at least questioned in some way, but not voting at all is even worse, because it makes it look as if you don't want to do anything objectionable. It even looks- dare I say it- "careful".

So why choose to vote for no-one when as an innocent Orc it would've been better to vote for who you found suspicious (or at least attempt to get someone lynched)?


I actually suspect that if the phantom does have a special role, he's the Undecided Orc who decided to leave his record clean yesterDay so that he could choose without implications in the Night. And anyway, he's been trying to prove that he's innocent since the beginning, which would be beneficial to have the rest of us believe whatever role he chose to take.


Hm... this musing seems to have ended up a bit longer than expected, but still, "I thought it prudent to leave the lynch the way it was" is no excuse to just purposefully not commit yourself to a vote when you were chosen as a carrier of votes.

Questions tp about his failure to use his three votes Day 1. Posits tp could be UoUA who voted the way he did to "keep his hands clean". That certainly occurred to me as a possibility also.

This is a very good point. He posted that after he knew that Lottie was lynched. And knowing the phantom, a stunt like that wouldn't be too unlikely if he felt in danger.


That seems about right. :p


They may have thought it would be a great way to deflect suspicion. It's so obviously suspicious that maybe the hoped that no-one would vote for them. Of course, if that was their plan, it failed miserably, but with one dying it would make the other seem less suspicious, which is why I think we definitely shouldn't cross Sally off the "Suspicious" list.

In the first bit he agrees with Legate about the possibility that a phantelf might have "revealed" after Lottie's fate was sealed to deflect some suspicion.

Thank you those who have voted for me so far. Vote me for a change, for a new dawn... er... yeah. Anyway, I seem to have got something that's made the whole back of my palate swell up. So we'll see how I am tomorrow, and hopefully I'll be able to post more then.


As for who I want to vote as rep, I'm thinking either Legate or Inzil. Or maybe even Sally, just to see what she'd do. *Thinks* Well, maybe not.

Anyway, of the two above, since he already has a vote, I think I'll cement

highlight]++Legate[/highlight

as a representative.

Considers Legate, me, or Sally(?) for rep. Ends up with Legate.

I'm sorry, I haven't had much of a chance to get online at all today, and when I have tried to go on this thread I had the time to do more than read.

I'm catching up now, but here are some of my thoughts so far:


Won't vote for:
Shasta- He seems to speak sense in an innocent way. Though I thought he was evil on early Day 1. I definitely need to reread his posts when I get a chance.
Lommy- Seems a little less innocent than yesterDay, but still makes sense and says a lot that I agree with.
Greenie- Not so sure about her. She felt very innocent yesterDay, but she doesn't so much toDay. She'll be another for me to reread.
Legate- He does seem a bit unclear/abstract at times, but I don't think he's evil.
Phantom- However much he's annoyed me, I can't actually see him being evil.
Inzil- I can never read him, but so far I can't see anything bad about him.
Rune- Just looks like he's having a bit of fun (and isn't that what this is about?), in an innocentish way.

Haven't seen enough:
Kath
Celuien
Mira
Foley- She's been around more than the ones above, but I can't really get a read on her yet.
Nog- See Foley, and he doesn't seem any more suspicious to me than usually does.

No idea (so most likely won't vote just yet):
Nerwen- Not sure whether I like or dislike her, but she's leaning innocent for now.

People who don't look so good:
Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her.
Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed).

edit: fixed formatting and Xed with many (including 3 votes for Xed), though that doesn't matter since I haven't caught up fully anyway.

Having just read Nerwen's Wilwa post and looked at the voting, I have to say that it's unlikely that my top two suspects are both Elves together. Wilwa's vote put both Lottie and Sally in first place, and though it would make her look really innocent if they both turn out to be Elves, I don't think they would have wanted us to find out that they were both Elves (i.e., by getting them lynched). So basically, unless Wilwa was playing extremely riskily, she and Sally probably aren't Elves together.

Which means that one of my choices probably isn't an Elf. And right now, I think that's more likely to be Sally.

So if nothing really happens soon my votes will probably be for Wilwa.

Intends to vote Wilwa.

FOk, well I can't really see why Celuien is such a suspect now. I'll need to reread her again when I'm less tired, but from what I've seen so far she just doesn't seem really innocent in any way, but she doesn't really look evil either. And she hasn't really posted enough for me to judge her.

And as I said earlier, I'd rather vote Wilwa than Sally right now, so:

[highlight++Wilwa x2++[/highlight


And now it's up to Foley

Gives both votes to Wilwa.

Day 3


Sorry everyone, I was going to write a list of all the votes so far and stuff, but I'm just exhausted and have a cold, so just a few comments from me.

As many have said so far, I don't really think we can blame Foley for the lynch. Most people (including me) seemed to be almost certain that one of the two would be evil (though the general consensus was that if one was; the other wasn't, I believe), and if one had been evil, a double lynch would have taken care of the problem. However, if we look at it positively, I think we would have wasted time toDay arguing over whether one of yesterDay's two lynchees (had one survived) was evil, since people suspected them for different reasons.


Also:

I almost had a heart attack when I read that.

Doesn't blame Foley, a sentiment with which I agree. Makes a point about the fact that if only one had been lynched, the other would probably be the focus of toDay, and thus, a wasted Day. Probably, but I still don't see the double-lynch as a good thing.

The problem is that as the game wears on, I seem to be getting less and less confident about who I find innocent or guilty.

Anyway, I was going to vote Zil as rep, because I want to see more of him, but since he's already one, and I don't really want him to have too much of a supermacy over the others, I'm going to vote someone else that I wanted to see talk more.


So I'm going to vote:

[highligh]++Rune[/highlight

Let's see what he does with the power he so craves.

Talks (again) of voting me for rep, and goes for Rune instead.

Conclusions? Well, I thought he looked pretty good early on, though he was obviously wrong about Boro. His drawing attention to Lottie could be a point in his favor. His reactions to the phantom have been strange at times, and appear somewhat inconsistant. Now that I look closely, he doesn't seem as innocent as he did earlier. Still, probably not a likely vote for me toDay.

[Thinlómien]

Here and happy to see the influx of comments and analyses. Folwren seems more innocent than ever, and Kath's analysis of Rune made me wary of both of them.

UoUAUruk of Unknown Alignment? ;)

PS. If I'm still alive toMorrow, I'm going to run a campaign myself elected as a rep for purely selfish reasons. It seems like I can't be kicked into truly concentrating on wolf-hunting unless I have to vote, which kind of sucks. :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

Uruk of Unknown Alignment? ;)

Indeed. :)

[Folwren]

I only had time to read Greenie's post on Nerwen and in a moment I need to go help may supper...but I wanted to shoot my opinion in on the vote, seeing as Greenie is my rep -

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nerwen. Although there are shadows of doubts around here, it is potentially very dangerous to kill her.

-- Foley

[A Little Green]

Whoa. Just saw the time. I've got to be up early tomorrow which means I really really need sleep now. I was hoping to have time to analyse someone else as well and perhaps write a list of some kind - not to mention hear more thoughts from others. Unfortunately I didn't and now I don't. Inzil, since you are around, who do you want to lynch?


EDIT: x-ed with Foley

[Eönwë]

- I just became quite sure Steve is a wolf - someone has to be
Wait, what? Where did that come from?

[Eönwë]

All caught up.

- I just became quite sure Steve is a wolf - someone has to be
Wait, what? Where did that come from?


edit: x-ed with many


edit 2: Gah. Double post, seemingly. Sorry.

[A Little Green]

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nerwen. Although there are shadows of doubts around here, it is potentially very dangerous to kill her.Hmm? I was thinking about voting for her, actually, since she is the only one I have some arguments against. I have an uneasy feeling about Inzil, but since I have nothing on him apart from that I won't vote for him. I don't want to, not without even half-decent arguments. Rune might be an option too - I'm currently very torn about him, and Kath's point about him taking up suspicions and discarding them has some merit.


EDIT: x-ed with Steve

[Eönwë]

I was just about to start on the voting list when I saw this:

Doesn't like Boro, and posits that he and I are Elves working in concert against tp. Thinks tp probably isn't evil, but says "those against him are all good". Even Boro and me? Also thinks either Sally and Lottie are wolves. Ends by saying he would lynch Boro, but doesn't like Izzy either.
Ok, ok, stop right there. Only about half of that is true.

Yes, I did find Boro suspicious, and yes, I thought Izzy might be hiding an Elvish face under her regular, very innocent-looking orcish mask.

When I said "It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play," I included phantom as a possible Elf with the two of you, and was trying to suggest that you might be disassociating yourselves from each other in a way that was so obvious that people wouldn't suspect it. And by saying that it would be "very bold" I also meant that it would be a very unlikely possibility.

As for "those against him are all good", I didn't ever say that. I actually said, "one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons", meaning that because I disagree with him, it's making me feel like those who disagree with him are good, even though my mind tells me they're not (because I find them suspicious). That's why it's "one of the problems".

[Inziladun]

Whoa. Just saw the time. I've got to be up early tomorrow which means I really really need sleep now. I was hoping to have time to analyse someone else as well and perhaps write a list of some kind - not to mention hear more thoughts from others. Unfortunately I didn't and now I don't. Inzil, since you are around, who do you want to lynch?

Phantom? :rolleyes:

Actually, I'm only half joking. I go from thinking he can't possibly be an Elf, to seeing visions of him giggling in the shadows as he surveys all the confusion he's caused.

I didn't care for Rune's rep-vote for Kath. Yes, he may not have seen where she'd said she wouldn't be around, but what concerned me more was that he didn't seem to have considered voting her until tp brought it up.

I'm going to try and look at some others before DL, but those are the ones that stand out at the moment.

x/d with Rune and Steve

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Ehm I am here, sorry for missing most of today, stuff came up.

In response to Kath's post about me: It is not that I totally discard my earlier suspicions, but early in the game they are mostly based on not being able to read people and thus less substantial. Greenie I still don't know what to think of and Glirdan. . . well he Died.

I was actually quite confident that I would vote Celuien today unless somebody came up with a very good case against another person, now I am a bit at a loss.

The way Steve and Zil posts makes it hard for me to get a read on them, but is it enough for me to vote for one of them? (I will give it some more thought)

[A Little Green]

Phantom?

Actually, I'm only half joking. I go from thinking he can't possibly be an Elf, to seeing visions of him giggling in the shadows as he surveys all the confusion he's caused.

I didn't care for Rune's rep-vote for Kath. Yes, he may not have seen where she'd said she wouldn't be around, but what concerned me more was that he didn't seem to have considered voting her until tp brought it up. I won't be voting phantom, that's a cert. He's one of the few I think I have a decent read on and he's definitely not an elf.

Rune? Like I said I'm really torn about him - he seems both really innocent and really evil at the same time. Not convinced either way.

Inzil, what do you think about Nerwen? I might want to try her, but if no one else does it's kind of a waste of a vote - and with only four of us who can vote in the first place, wasting even one vote is a big thing. Also, if no one else is in for lynching Nerwen, I'd prefer to see Rune dead than someone I have an innocent feel of.


EDIT: x-ed with Runne, yay!

[the phantom]

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

For the lynch I would like to see the following debated-
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen
Legate

I would love to see all the Reps rank them in the order that they'd prefer, and I definitely want the candidates to emerge from this list. Given there are five suspects there has to be two that are wrong, meaning the Elves would have at least a couple of clear candidates to push.

[Folwren]

Rune, my dear fellow, Celuien is already dead, so you may as well not bother voting for her, unless you'd like to have us lynch a corpse.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, a list (this is probably the only way I can really try to think of stuff, if you discount rereading, which I didn't do because I'm a failure and read a book and started writing something random instead...)

Foley - the most innocent person in this cave after me. Says stuff a SoE just wouldn't say plus seems very genuine in her reactions (see the end of yesterDay for example). If she's a SoE I don't really mind losing to her.

Greenie - I've started to suspect her (quite randomly) BUT I think last time I played with her I believed her innocent until came the phase when I start getting paranoid bacuse of lack of suspects and then we lynched her and she was innocent. So I have an eerie feeling that history might be repeating itself and she's probably innocent like I said in the beginning.

Kath - she's so difficult! I'd love to think she's innocent because I've had such nice (totally game unrelated, of course) chats with her on msn recently but I shouldn't let her sweetness thwart me. She is always a bit of an enigma for me, because even though she says her opinions, she always seems a bit detached from the other people in the game in a weird way. Something in her "easy" opinions disturbs me but then again her analysis of her own suspicion of Rune seemed more like something an innocent would do - a SoE could just be lazy and say "it's a gut feeling" since so many people do that anyway that it's not particularily suspicious.

Legate - still thinking he is most likely innocent despite a fishy vote or two. It's the general manner that seems like his innocent self. Like somebody said, he tends to be more "polished" and careful as a wolf. Of course, he might be fooling me completely (which might mean I'm going to cancel all possible plans concerning travelling to the Czech Republic in near future. :p)

Mira - not around much, thereby no read. We can always pose questions like: wouldn't she be around more if she was a wolf? Or: wouldn't she be more wacky as a wolf? But I can't answer "yes" to these questions without hesitation, so she remains an enigma. I appreciate her effort in the game even though she's now sick, but before she was sick her efforts seemed a bit half-hearted. I wonder if that means being ordo is boring or being SoE makes her lazy to concentrate on wolf hunt. (Or I can come up with several more explanation but I don't like them so much because they don't tell anything about her role... :rolleyes: )

Nerwen - I voted her for rep toDay and now I'm wondering if it was smart. I had a feeling she's innocent, and her tone is more like innocent Nerwen than guilty Nerwen. The difference is not big, but innocent Nerwen usually seems more down-to-earth than the slightly dramatic and more bantery wolf Nerwen (if my perception is correct). Greenie's analysis made me slightly worried, though, because it raised some points against her that I had not considered (for example her reactions to the Night kill choices). D-i-f-f-i-c-u-l-t, once again.

Phantom - he's either an innocent who's not fooling me or a SoE who is fooling me. Much prefer explanation #1 and think it more probable. I remember, though, one game where he and I were the wolves and we floated neatly unsuspected from Day1 to the end discounting the obligatory "phantom sucks" suspicion on Day1. I could see him floating like that in this game too.

Rune - like I and somebody else have said several times, he has had quite an easy and relaxing game this far so it's been difficult to judge him based on his reactions. I truly have no idea about him at the moment. I'd like to believe him innocent since I have no real suspicion towards him but atr this point I can't afford being so lenient.

Shasta - has weirdly become my top suspect. I was thinking of him just a while ago and thinking: "What else has he done than argued with phantom, tried to get Sally lynched and buddied Nerwen up?" And I couldn't come up with anything. I could see the scenario so well: a sneaky Shastawolf tries to create no suspicion or extra connections. Everybody knows that he and Sally take contact with each other in ww, that he always wages war with tp and that he has this ww "romance" with Nerwen. Simply his choice of focus seems too easy, and also his strategy: choose one innocent victim to concentrate on, write about phantom so you don't have to write about anything else, buddy up with an innocent who's your friend OR make a convenient voting arrangement with a fellow with a good cover excuse. I also really wonder why Greenie (and Nerwen...?) find him so innocent. Fellow wolves?

Steve - Zil's analysis actually made me feel better about him. There's not really anything too bad that would stand out and he's not quite as fishy as I thought. Still, my read on him atm is very lousy.

Zil - I have the same problem with him as ever. He seems calm, reasonable, reliable and a a bit cold, and it's hard to see his personal feelings or emotional reactions. (Ok ok maybe I shouldn't be surprised given his RL job. :p) I have zero reason to suspect him, and that's disturbing. It's just simply difficult to get anything out of this guy.

Hey, yay! See? This made me think! Now I'm happy. I'll summarise for you:

Leaning innocent
Foley
Legate
Phantom

Difficult
Greenie
Kath
Mira
Nerwen
Rune
Steve
Zil

Leaning guilty
Shasta

So, if I assume Shasta is guilty, that still leaves two wolves to find and I think they're from the "difficult" category (well it's quite big anyway). Shasta+Nerwen+Greenie seems a little obvious but not unthinkable. Actually, scratch that. Not sure if Greenie and Nerwen look like fellows at all. Hmm... have to think of the combinations more, partially with the vote tallies in hand.


edit: xed with everyone since my last

[A Little Green]

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

For the lynch I would like to see the following debated-
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen
Legate

I would love to see all the Reps rank them in the order that they'd prefer, and I definitely want the candidates to emerge from this list. Given there are five suspects there has to be two that are wrong, meaning the Elves would have at least a couple of clear candidates to push.There he goes again.. If someone considers lynching you they just have to be evil. Come on. As for your five - why them? (Or should I say us?) If I had to put those in an order, it would look something like this:

Nerwen - possibly my top suspect at the moment, insofar as I can claim to have one. I would like to see her lynched.
Inzil - like I said, I'm slightly uneasy about him though with no arguments to base it on, wouldn't mind seeing him lynched.
Legate - would be somewhere in my "no idea, maybe leaning innocent" -category, quite honestly I haven't paid that much attention to him.
Shasta - I'm still inclined to find him innocent, definitely don't want to lynch him toDay.
Green - obviously. Lynching me would be stupid.

I'm still considering Rune as well, my vote will in all probability go for either him or Nerwen. (A curious detail: the three I'm most uneasy about are my fellow reps.)


EDIT: x-ed with Foley and Lommy

[Inziladun]

I won't be voting phantom, that's a cert. He's one of the few I think I have a decent read on and he's definitely not an elf.

Rune? Like I said I'm really torn about him - he seems both really innocent and really evil at the same time. Not convinced either way.

Inzil, what do you think about Nerwen? I might want to try her, but if no one else does it's kind of a waste of a vote - and with only four of us who can vote in the first place, wasting even one vote is a big thing. Also, if no one else is in for lynching Nerwen, I'd prefer to see Rune dead than someone I have an innocent feel of.

Nerwen's one that I'm not sold on as Orc or Elf. She's been at odds with tp, but really she's stood out mostly as being fairly low-key (for her) in spite of that. I haven't had a chance to look closely at your analysis. At this, point, she wouldn't be my first choice.

x/d with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I just finished reading the thread and I feel I don't have very much to say toDay anyway, as I would really need to stop and think, or go through it once again, but I have to get up early tomorrow again. I think this Day just didn't work out very well for me :( I have only a few very basic observations, or "homeworks" for myself: I would like to take a look at several people again; Steve, Greenie, Shasta, possibly Kath (though in her case, I am generally skeptical about the outcome, as I have always trouble reading her).
Celuien being modfired and being an Ordo is sort of discouraging, among other things - most of all, since she was the last one on my list of clearer suspects, I am now rather at loss, and with this hour, I feel quite happy for not having to vote toDay.

I am really looking forward to see the results of toDay's voting and also to see whom the current Reps are going to vote. They are all people who are closer to the "middle" section of my suspicion list, or the "not so sure" section, like there's been something which has shifted their position in my thoughts lately - like reconsidering to feel a bit better about Rune because of his latter posting, being a bit more suspicious of Greenie while considering her sally-pursuit, or being generally unsure about Nerwen. What I have read during this Day has more or less kept the impressions similar in this way. I am perhaps only a bit more worried about Steve now, and a bit less about Inzil.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, phantom, etc.

[Thinlómien]

Wait, what? Where did that come from?That was really mostly a very random idea. I tried to think who could be a wolf and that was the first name that came to my mind. I explained later, though:
No idea why Steve. There's something troublingly smooth in his manner and choices when it comes to suspicions and votes etc.
But as you can see, I'm not so enlightened anymore...

There seems to be small chance of Shasta getting lynched, which is a pity. Anybody willing to borrow me some lynch-votes? ;) Seriously, out of the people on phantom's list, he seems the best shot by far. If my humble opinion is worth something, don't lynch Legate. Zil/Nerwen/Greenie I'm torn about but I would possibly prefer Greenie... not sure at all.


edit: x-posted with the two gents and forgot to mark earlier since logged into Facebook for some stupid reason and forgot about ww for ten minutes... blah!

[Folwren]

Does it have to be those five that phantom listed? I think there must be at least one guilty one in amonst them, but still...most of them look innocent to me. I know I'm not voting, but I wish I were - I feel I'd do a better job today than yesterDay. Harhar.

Okay...I'm going to attempt to make a list and say who I think is guilty and who is not. I can't say why I think these things for a couple reasons - I don't have time and in some people's case, I don't have very much foundation...

Probably Innocent
Nerwen
Inzil
Lommy

Less certain but leaning towards innocent
Shasta
Legate
Phantom
Kath

Also less certain, but leaning towards guilty this time
Rune
Mira

I have a guilty feeling about:
Greenie
Steve

Now PLEASE don't freak out about Greenie's name being there. I KNOW I voted for her, but it was only after I voted for her and then started reading more posts (remember, I'm way behind due to Day2) and she started posting more posts that I got a bad, bad, bad feeling about her. I feel something is wrong. I don't have time to go back and figure it out now, but I wanted to put out my list in case any of you reps really cared.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Rune, my dear fellow, Celuien is already dead, so you may as well not bother voting for her, unless you'd like to have us lynch a corpse.

I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .

[Folwren]

I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .

Ah, right. Missed that. Sorry.

[A Little Green]

Hmmn. It's 1 AM and I need to be up by eight. Meaning? It's well past my bed-time. As for my vote - I'm still torn between voting Nerwen and voting Runne. I suspect Nerwen more, but I'm not sure any of my fellow reps want to vote her so I might not, either. If nothing drastic has appeared while I'm typing this, I'll vote in my next post and then be off to bed.


EDIT: x-ed with Rune and Foley

[Eönwë]

In fact, you jumping on that is making me start to find you suspicious. In fact, maybe my phantom-Zil-Boro triangle wasn't as far-fetched as I'd first thought. Of course, Boro was innocent, but then again, he was the most vocal and outspoken of the three of you, so maybe he was just an innocent that happened to join in?

Looking at the phantom:

I've thought him innocent for most of the game, but look at these coincidences:
Doesn't lynch vote on Day 1. He misses it even though he was the one keeping the tallies. And in addition, he is always the one who said that not voting at all was a bad idea. Admittedly, in the context it was about rep-voting, but still, phantom (the powerhungry) not voting seems a bit wrong. Seems like he's avoiding the risk of lynching an innocent (Boro), or any of the two who voted for him, because he wants support toMorrow. And also, if he is really a wolf, then voting Lottie would be a very bad move (obviously). In fact, whatever he says now, he defended the two of them for all of Day 1. Also, lynching an already-dead fellow is grounds for suspicion too, so he would've wanted to avoid that.
Lack of a rep vote toDay. He was the one doing all the counting and stuff, yet he didn't vote. Voting Kath would've been bad, considering that she had already said she couldn't be a rep, and voting anyone with no votes would seem a throwaway vote. Giving a rep another vote would just create imbalance, which would surely cause a bit of controversy, since everyone seems to be sticking to the "two-votes-per-rep" plan these days.

Of course, other than a few other minor things, this is generally where my suspicion for phantom ends, because he hasn't done anything else to make him look guilty, and in fact many of his posts feel very innocent. Still we all know how cunning he is (or at least professes to be), so I'm sure he could be fooling us. And purposefully/mistakenly missing votes seems very uncharacteristic for phantom (though I admit for both evil or innocent phantom). But not voting (once in a while so that it's not as obvious) would probably be more advantageous for an elf. So let's assume he's evil for the purposes of this post and see how the 'scenario/model' plays out.



Moving onto Inzil and the links between the two of them next.

edit: x-ed since Lommy's list.

edit 2: formatting

[A Little Green]

Rune, who are you thinking of voting?

[Thinlómien]

Okay babies, going to sleep.

Please consider Shasta and what I said about him.

And please lynch a wolf (although, I know, that's not a very fair request).

Good night!


edit: xed with baby green

[the phantom]

There he goes again.. If someone considers lynching you they just have to be evil.
The slaying of Nog alone ought to be enough to make me a bad gamble, and combine that with the fact that I refused to save Lottie on Day 1 even though it was totally within my power... I'm sorry, but at this stage it's downright suspicious for Inzil to float my name as a possibility. As if he's hoping beyond hope someone will bite or something.
As for your five - why them?
This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639783&postcount=633) post of mine provides a link to the majority of the analysis I've done today.

[Eönwë]

Seems a bit hypocritical, as he himself had made tp his main topic earlier.

Also, that was actually half a Day (about 22 hours) later- and everyone was still talking about the phantom.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Rune, who are you thinking of voting?

Well, I don't have any top suspects right now.

I could be convinced to vote Zil or Steve, not because I have a good case against them, but because the way they play. Many of their posts are comments on others theories (if my memory is correct), I have a hard time analyse people who play like this. I know it is not necessarily a trademark of a SoE, but it wouldn't be a bad strategy for the either.

I am also feeling a bit uneasy about You, Shasta and Nerwen, but for some reason I would like to have closer look you lot. Of course I could be convinced to vote for them if I did not care for my other options.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Anybody who thinks that Lommy's thoughts on Shasta are any good?

It sounds reasonable to me, but I haven't had a proper look at him my self. . .

[A Little Green]

This time I'm really going to sleep. I'm going to go for

++Nerwen++

After all I decided to take the risk and simply vote for the one I find most suspicious. In the end I couldn't justify voting Rune since I really don't have that many arguments against him either. I sincerely hope I'm doing the right thing.


EDIT: x-ed with 2xRunne

[the phantom]

Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.

As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.

[Eönwë]

Well, this was actually meant to be part of the same post as the last, but then I decided to split them, so just assume they're linked as one.

I've been trying to find stuff (good or bad) about Inzil, but the problem is that I can't, because there's not much I can say. He's far too slippery, which is not good at all. There's nothing really that can be taken as a strong sign of innocence or evilness, and the only real way to judge him is to look at his links with other people.

That's why I've chosen the phantom. Now, let's assume that he's evil (see last post) and in league with the phantom. Consider these under this light:
He is the first to show dissent against everyone voting phantom (#6 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639001&postcount=6)). So obviously, this would be a good way to start an argument without actually suspecting someone.
Later on he says "I don't know whether tp is a SoE, but I flat-out disagree with him on this" (#225 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=639261&postcount=225))And that generally sums up his approach to the phantom. Arguing with him but not suspecting him. A perfect way to distance yourselves and not get either of you in trouble (i.e., danger of lynching). And these sorts of arguments generally look innocent.
Votes Boro for rep on Day 1, cementing the above comment.
"Why is the phantom still alive?" The easiest way to suspect someone without giving evidence or making anyone seem too evil.


He also only once gives out clear suspicions of everyone. On Day 2.

The link also continues (Though weaker) throughout the rest of the game, but I'm too tired to look in more detail at the rest right now.

Besides, I get the feeling that really, one of them is probably evil, while the other might not necessarily be. If this is the case, I suspect that Inziladun slowly tried to associate himself with phantom, so that he could take him down with him if he looked guilty.



Or maybe I'm just over-thinking.


edit: fell asleep at my keyboard. x-ed since my last post.

[Eönwë]

Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.
Well, you didn't know that at the time, or if you did, you're an elf.

As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.
Fair enough.


Mira- A bit like Kath. I just really would like to see more from her. And if both Mira and Kath are Elves, well... that would make me angry.

... and you wouldn't like phantom when he's angry. :p

[Eönwë]

Oh, and sorry. I promise I'll try to do the vote list if I'm still alive toMorrow.

Goodnight.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

... and you wouldn't like phantom when he's angry. :p

Ou faminto.

[Folwren]

I'm writing a post about Greenie now. May be a while.

[Eönwë]

Actually, I have a few more things to say:


We haven't had enough people voting, which is never good.
Those not posting much are being ignored, as if they're being rewarded for not being around. Now, I know it can be hard to have time when you have a lot to do IRL, but it doesn't mean those people should get a free pass- and the intentionally quiet ones generally just slip by easily, letting the vocal players kill each other off.



And as for my opinion on some people:
Kath- What I've seen looks good, but she's good at hiding evilness and plays almost the same way whatever her alignment.
Shasta- Not sure if I like him or not. I can never read him, especially when he's evil.
Greenie- I'm getting evil undertones from her. There's definitely something darker (or is that lighter) about her more recent posts.


Also, I don't really like the Celuien suspicions. I mean, she only has 9 posts, which is hardly enough to begin to properly suspect someone from lynvhing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Celuien has already been modkilled, but I agree - all those who suspected Celuien the most (I'm mostly looking at you here, Rune) - how is it you can suspect someone of Elfishness when they've made nine posts? Definitely seems like the easy out to me.

Sorry for not being around, I worked all day. I'm not going to bother answering any of Lommy's allegations, as they basically come down to 'gut feeling', which is unanswerable (sorry, love, but they do).

[Kath]

all those who suspected Celuien the most (I'm mostly looking at you here, Rune) - how is it you can suspect someone of Elfishness when they've made nine posts? Definitely seems like the easy out to me.
Pfft it's how I get lynched every time. Lack of posts is suspicious to many people ... very often to those who make many posts themselves because it seems odd to them.

Sorry that seems a bit random, but it is true.

[the phantom]

Well, you didn't know that at the time, or if you did, you're an elf.
But that was my point. If I knew (was an Elf) I would have saved Lottie. Simple as that.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Celuien has already been modkilled, but I agree - all those who suspected Celuien the most (I'm mostly looking at you here, Rune) - how is it you can suspect someone of Elfishness when they've made nine posts? Definitely seems like the easy out to me.

Why is it an easier way out than posting somebody that posts all the time?

I based my opinion on Celuien on what she wrote in her posts, it is the only thing I could do. If it strikes me as Elfish, then surely the only responsible thing is to suspect her! (even if she has only posted 9 times)

[Folwren]

Okay...so I WAS writing a post about Greenie, but then I lost it. *wry grin*

Should I start o'er?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Okay...so I WAS writing a post about Greenie, but then I lost it. *wry grin*

Should I start o'er?

I would personally love to read what you have to say about Greenie.

[the phantom]

If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).

That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst.

Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people.

So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day).

The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive.

If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf.

So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan.

[Folwren]

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

[Folwren]

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

[the phantom]

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?
What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?
The Seer doesn't have to live through the night if he's already dreamed 3 innocents.

As far as belief, you've just got to hope that the true Seer is more believable than the fake one. I mean, that's always the case in any village. It's just that I'm suggesting perhaps instead of drawing things out we go for a huge massive lynch and either win or lose.

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.

[the phantom]

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.
I wouldn't know anything about that. My parents have never said "no" to me.

As a matter of fact, Downs Werewolf games are the only time I hear it.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.

I remember when I was a spoiled little girl. . .


Anyways I feel slightly better after looking at Steve's latest posts, so I am less inclined to vote for Steve this time around. (not ruling it completely out)

That would leave me with Zil as main option. Followed by people like Greenie, Shasta and Nerwen. The last three is based on gut feeling or whatever you call it, their posts does not always seem genuine. . . then of course there was the points made by Lommy. (Yes I put quite a bit of faith in her)

[the phantom]

Anyway, just to make my plan a bit more clear, if you should wish to adopt it, ignore everything else I've said and assume that your three proven innocents are- Lommy, Kath, and Rune.

Gotta run. I'm not certain if I'll be back before the deadline, so just in case- best of luck everyone.

[Inziladun]

Yes, I did find Boro suspicious, and yes, I thought Izzy might be hiding an Elvish face under her regular, very innocent-looking orcish mask.

When I said "It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play," I included phantom as a possible Elf with the two of you, and was trying to suggest that you might be disassociating yourselves from each other in a way that was so obvious that people wouldn't suspect it. And by saying that it would be "very bold" I also meant that it would be a very unlikely possibility.

As for "those against him are all good", I didn't ever say that. I actually said, "one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons", meaning that because I disagree with him, it's making me feel like those who disagree with him are good, even though my mind tells me they're not (because I find them suspicious). That's why it's "one of the problems".

All right. This rather makes sense. It's not as though you were one of my top suspects anyway.

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

Of course. That goes back to what Nerwen was saying a while back: not believing in your plans=evil.

The slaying of Nog alone ought to be enough to make me a bad gamble, and combine that with the fact that I refused to save Lottie on Day 1 even though it was totally within my power... I'm sorry, but at this stage it's downright suspicious for Inzil to float my name as a possibility. As if he's hoping beyond hope someone will bite or something.


I don't see why that clears you. But really, phantom you're bloody touchy. If you'd know, I'd rather Rune than you at this point. I didn't like how he immediately jumped on the idea of Kath as a rep just after you said you'd like to see it. It looked odd enough to me that you two are the ones I suspect most.

x/d with tp

[Folwren]

I will actually not go over Day 1 or the first half of Day 2, because I can sumarize it pretty well. Mostly what she did on Day 1 was bicker with Phantom and point accusingly at Sally, saying she looked much more wolfish than Lottie. She spoke very little about Lottie and she spent both her votes on Sally.

Day 2, she really ripped into Sally. Some of her posts were what I saw when I was trying to decide what to do that night. At the time, I trusted Greenie. As I said, it was only until today that I started distrusting her.

Barring Seer reveals, this game is all about speculation, isn't it? I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it. Does that make sense?

She was talking to Nerwen. This was day 2. She seems to be saying that although it is unlikely that Sally and Lottie were elves together, Nerwen's explenation made sense, so she agreed. I actually don't know where or when Nerwen talked about both Sally and Lottie being elves together....I just figured that myself. I thought it'd be really sneaky and if Sally had turned out to be an elf, I would've probably lobbied to kill Phantom, but that's another matter...

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable. I, for one, certainly can't complain as I was the one who actually killed her. :(

Throughout day 2, she seems to think that Wilwa is innocent. Good, good... at least she's consistant in disliking sally and only sally.

She likes Nerwen Day1 and Day2. But Day3, she changes her tune. I don't like her reasoning against Nerwen at all. I've looked at the same posts, and I think Nerwen looks reasonably innocent. In fact, I think Nerwen is quite trustable...but that's just my own opinion.

Well. Of Celuien and Rune, I'd certainly prefer Cel as I think I have a read on Rune and I think he's innocent. Of Wilwa, Zil and Sally, then - I find Wilwa very innocent and wouldn't have you vote her, I'm not convinced either way about Zil, and as I said I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Sally lynched.

I think if Greenie is guilty, Rune may be, too.

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

The logic that she is referring to is in Nerwen's post;

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

Because of Greenie's reaction, Nerwen posted that she thought Greenie over-reacted, and Greenie responded, deflecting...but I wonder...?

Here's what she said in response to Nerwen's, 'Why did you react like that?'

I know! The difference is that you seemed to consider it as a possibility, whereas I don't - even if I was a SoE it would be so ridiculously paranoid that I don't think it would be an option.

In post 572, she lists who she thinks is innocent and guilty....nothing out of it now, except she puts in her innocent list some people I have in mine...

She proceeds to vote Inzil in as Rep, although she uncertain about him...

And time is running so short that I'll post this even though it's not finished and maybe finish it in another post.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I don't see why that clears you. But really, phantom you're bloody touchy. If you'd know, I'd rather Rune than you at this point. I didn't like how he immediately jumped on the idea of Kath as a rep just after you said you'd like to see it. It looked odd enough to me that you two are the ones I suspect most.

x/d with tp

Trust me, if I had been a SoE, I would have been more careful. The fact that I jumped on the idea of Kath as a representative should tell you that it was something that I thought was good idea, but hadn't thought of me self.

[Inziladun]

I really don't like the way phantom seems to want to hide behind his own (admittedly strong) personality as an excuse for his actions. I don't know that he's evil, but his reactions to being suspected make me even more wary of him.

I don't claim to know I'm right. I haven't had a chance to look at everyone toDay. I'm relatively certain Foley is innocent, and I feel a bit better about Steve now. The rest?

Shasta is rather enigmatic. He makes me nervous for some reason, but I did like the fact that he challenged phantom.

Nerwen has points for and against her Elvishness, and I always have difficulty reading her.

Legate, ditto. Probably the worst thing I recall about him at the moment is the Cel votes, which I don't believe he ever explained.

Greenie: maybe did overreact a bit when Nerwen brought up that quote from Nog about suspecting her. It didn't look bad enough to merit a vote, though.

Lommy I've not paid much attention to, honestly. My focus got turned away from her after Day 1 (by you-know-who), but I thought her casting the first votes for Lottie made her look fairly good.

Kath: not a lot to go on. Really, her posting looks all right from what I recall (which isn't much).

x/d with Rune

[Nerwen]

Having internet trouble at again, so sorry about not being around.

But I've read through things and I will say this quickly– I am now quite concerned about Greenie, and no, it's not just retaliation.

She analysed me and said there were some things she found suspicious, and that she might consider lynching me if I didn't provide proper answers to her questions. Fine, though I think the points were pretty minor.

Then, she keeps talking about me, and with each repetition I become more and more THE suspect, leading up to her voting me. (Recall that there's no further input from me in between any of these posts.) It looks manufactured.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Folwren]

K, this does NOT make sense:

It (being Sally being the seer) did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.

If Sally were smart enough as a seer NOT to do what she did, why would she not be smart enough as an elf not to do what she did? If Greenie thought she was smart enough not do that as a seer, why would Greenie think she was an elf when that move was almost equally as stupid?

Okay...so after looking at all of Greenie's posts, my main problem really lies with that she doesn't seem to have good reasons to suspect people. I think she weaves thick webs for the people she chooses to kill. Her web caught me and I killed Sally. I strongly think that Nerwen is innocent, and I think that Greenie's post against her is flimsy, but if I weren't so convinced of Nerwen's innocence, I can see being swayed by it.

If she's an elf, she's playing it really well. But I don't trust her.

And I know that all that review and analysis was really bad, but it's the best I can do with the time I've got plus with my inexperience at this.

-- Foley

x-posted since my last post.

[Inziladun]

Rune, the "I'd never do that as a wolf" defense probably wasn't the best thing you could have said to convince me.

And what's this about Nerwen and Greenie now?

[Nerwen]

I really don't like the way phantom seems to want to hide behind his own (admittedly strong) personality as an excuse for his actions. I don't know that he's evil, but his reactions to being suspected make me even more wary of him.

He's annoying, but there's currently too much evidence pointing away from him. Wouldn't be a good vote option.

Shasta is rather enigmatic. He makes me nervous for some reason, but I did like the fact that he challenged phantom.
Shasta did a lot to get Lottie killed on Day One. I don't think he's an Elf.
If Sally were smart enough as a seer NOT to do what she did, why would she not be smart enough as an elf not to do what she did? If Greenie thought she was smart enough not do that as a seer, why would Greenie think she was an elf when that move was almost equally as stupid?
Well, the dynamics aren't the same, though. If there's four wolves they can afford to be "silly"– the Seer can't.

However–
Okay...so after looking at all of Greenie's posts, my main problem really lies with that she doesn't seem to have good reasons to suspect people. I think she weaves thick webs for the people she chooses to kill. Her web caught me and I killed Sally. I strongly think that Nerwen is innocent, and I think that Greenie's post against her is flimsy, but if I weren't so convinced of Nerwen's innocence, I can see being swayed by it.
See my last post on her.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).

That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst.

Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people.

So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day).

The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive.

If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf.

So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan.

Anyway, just to make my plan a bit more clear, if you should wish to adopt it, ignore everything else I've said and assume that your three proven innocents are- Lommy, Kath, and Rune.

Gotta run. I'm not certain if I'll be back before the deadline, so just in case- best of luck everyone.

So are we ignoring these posts and their content?
What is being implied seems pretty important to me or have I completely misunderstood them?

[Inziladun]

Bleh. Had to run downstairs and kill a spider found by the little one.

He's annoying, but there's currently too much evidence pointing away from him. Wouldn't be a good vote option.

And annoyance isn't enough? ;)

Shasta did a lot to get Lottie killed on Day One. I don't think he's an Elf.

I wouldn't vote for him right now, anyway.

x/d with Rune

[Folwren]

About Phantom's idea: I don't think we could verify who was a real seer.

Also, reps, you better start voting. Don't let Nerwen die, that'd be stupid.

-- Foley

[Inziladun]

So are we ignoring these posts and their content?
What is being implied seems pretty important to me or have I completely misunderstood them?

I saw it. I know how it could be interpreted.

x/d with Foley

[Nerwen]

I am willing to vote Rune or Greenie.

Do not let me die, please. That would not help.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I would of course love to save my own skin, so if that means voting Greenie, then I will do that.l

[Nerwen]

++Greenie++

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Greenie++

Cross posted with Nerwen.

[Inziladun]

++Greenie++ X 2

x/d with Nerwen and Rune

[Folwren]

Let's hope I/we weren't wrong.

[Inziladun]

Let's hope I/we weren't wrong.

You're really why I voted her. Don't be wrong!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Deadline.

Greenie dies.

Narration will be late because I'm going to watch trashy cheerleader television. I'll have narration up in about an hour and a half.

[Nerwen]

Let's hope I/we weren't wrong.

*crosses fingers*

EDIT:X'd with Fea and Foley.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs660.snc4/60008_161888123821591_100000012124034_515081_50177 64_n.jpg

Greenie has been lynched. She was Arathorn.

Night Four now begins. Elrohir and Other Guy, do your thing. Seer, lay it on me.

Dead:
Feanorc and Niennorc - beheaded in the dark
Lottielf (Elladan) - axed in the head
Izanordorc (ordo) - head cut off in her sleep
Borc (ordo) - nommed some poison by accident
Glirdan (ordo) - accidental broken heart
Wilwa (ordo) and Sally (ordo) - crushed to death by khup-khaks.
Nog (ordo) - ninjaed in his sleep
Celuien (ordo) - struck by the curse
Greenie (Arathorn) - it was all fun and games, then she lost an eye

Alive:
Foley
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Mira
Nerwen
Phantom
Rune
Shasta
Steve
Zil

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash2/hs337.ash2/61714_162101210466949_100000012124034_515875_28505 1_n.jpg

Mira has been killed. She had some awesome dreams.

Day Four now begins. Elrohir and Other Guy, cease.

Dead:
Feanorc and Niennorc - beheaded in the dark
Lottielf (Elladan) - axed in the head
Izanordorc (ordo) - head cut off in her sleep
Borc (ordo) - nommed some poison by accident
Glirdan (ordo) - accidental broken heart
Wilwa (ordo) and Sally (ordo) - crushed to death by khup-khaks.
Nog (ordo) - ninjaed in his sleep
Celuien (ordo) - struck by the curse
Greenie (Arathorn) - it was all fun and games, then she lost an eye
Stick (seer) - killed while fantasizing about That Tony Guy

Alive:
Foley
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Nerwen
Phantom
Rune
Shasta
Steve
Zil

[the phantom]

Well well- looks like the experiment worked, but not the right way. Bleh. At least we can be certain that my list of innocents is at least partly wrong now. I feared at least one was wrong, but I had to try it. There were only two choices of people I could back and Mira given her lack of participation I judged to be the lesser of the two. Obviously wrong on that, blast it. Otherwise it would've worked perfectly.

Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree?

So that means we must lynch a couple of these folks-
Foley
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Rune
Steve
Inzil

I need to go back and do a reread of many things. I'll be around later.

[Folwren]

Well, I really didn't see that one coming. That is ... sad...

I don't have time to go back and look at Mira's posts, but I'll see. :) I agree that Nerwen is probably good, but I've thought that all along.

Back to class I go.

-- Foley

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't even know what to think about that. Ugggh. I love me some Mira, but couldn't our Seer have been someone who, I don't know, participated? Blech.

Back in a bit with some thoughts (I'm at rehearsal right now).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Having read all (eleven) of Stick's posts, I've come to the following conclusions -

- Given Stick's #627, I'm inclined to think that her dreams were Phantom, Nerwen, and myself (she thinks all three of us are innocent and doesn't really give hardcore opinions on anyone else).

- Given her rep vote for Phantom early on, I'm inclined to think Phantom was her Night 1 dream.

- Based on this quote:
Now I really want to know Wilwa, Shasta, and phantom's roles are just to see if I'm going to get proven wrong.
- and based on the fact that we lynched Wilwa right after this, I'm inclined to think she dreamt of me the night after the double lynch.

- Based on those, I think whatever night isn't accounted for (night 2?) is the night she dreamt of Nerwen.

That's all I could gather from her posts. The rest was talking about Sally and apologizing for not being active/promises to do better.

[Nerwen]

Well well- looks like the experiment worked, but not the right way. Bleh. At least we can be certain that my list of innocents is at least partly wrong now. I feared at least one was wrong, but I had to try it. There were only two choices of people I could back and Mira given her lack of participation I judged to be the lesser of the two. Obviously wrong on that, blast it. Otherwise it would've worked perfectly.

Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree?

So what tipped them off to Mira? She did so little else that I think it must have been her post at #627– specifically, her list of three innocents. Thing is, I don't think you (phantom) were the only other per person who made a list of three, so that might tell us something. (Need to check.)

So that means we must lynch a couple of these folks-
Foley
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Rune
Steve
Inzil

I need to go back and do a reread of many things. I'll be around later.

If Zil, Rune or Lommy is an Elf, he or she quite gratuitously bussed a comrade. (Can't rule that out, though.) Add in Foley, who played a large role in getting A Little Green Elf lynched.

The other thing is– why did Greenie go so heavily after me? It wasn't as if there was general support for lynching me– and I had voting-power, whereas there were seven disenfranchised folk who would have made easier victims.

Thoughts–

1. Was it the case that the only lynchable-looking people among the er... general public were her fellows?

2. Was she counting on the support of a fellow-rep?

[Inziladun]

Given Mira's relatively submarine performance, I find it incredible she was the Seer. It's even more confounding that the Elves figured that out.
I had a good feeling about Foley already, and based on her late words that we shouldn't lynch Nerwen for nebulous reasons, I was thinking Foley could be the Seer.

I know Shasta sort of did this already, but I'm doing it as well.

So... I read like a page and a half. Now have to go to a meeting, class, and work. Am grumpy about this fact. Would like to know what's in it for me if vote phantom for rep. Read more at work and hopefully make legitimate contribution.

The post that raised some eyebrows, especially in light of Lottie and Sally's votes for tp.


Deal. And I'm holding you to that.

[highlight++phantom for rep[/highlight

Votes tp for rep. Luckily, it was passed off as a joke or a lack of time by pretty much everyone.

Why actually I wasn't. Which I made perfectly clear in my first post of the day.

Admits she didn't read at all before voting.

*is a super epic fail at this game and would request modfire if Fea wouldn't literally eat her soul and probably forbid her to ever loiter at her house again ever*

On that note, I am in desperate need of a nap and will be legitimately around after that (given I don't die in my sleep or something). If there's anything in particular people would like me to respond to, condensed versions would be much appreciated.

No comment.

Immediate thoughts since they were requested; more detailed to come.

phantom doesn't feel evil - er, good? - to me. His attention getting ploys are slightly more ridiculous than when he actually has something to lose. Case and point - Seer reveal that in my opinion accomplished nothing.

Nog isn't making my head hurt, which a new and interesting experience. That does make me a tad suspicious with no backup for that though.

Mira is a pretty ridiculous fail at this game. This is what happens when people are forced to spend their entire weekend doing homework.

Fairly clear hint she could have dreamed of tp. All right, he's probably an Orc. That still doesn't mean he's right about everything.

The words about Nog aren't as clear. Seems ambiguous enough to have been just her opinion. That was Day 2, though. Why didn't she comment on her Night 2 dream if it wasn't Nog?

Aaaand fail Mira for not actually saying what that massive post boils down to.

Pretty much I don't find sally all that suspicious. She's getting upset when people try to suspect her and I'm still not quite sure where her suspicion of Wilwa is coming from (although in all fairness, I very well might have missed it in the rush to get this done before DL), but nothing about that screams SoE to me.

Now I really want to know Wilwa, Shasta, and phantom's roles are just to see if I'm going to get proven wrong.

After an analysis of Sally, in which she concluded Sally was innocent. That could have been a covert way of saying she'd dreamed Sally. It seems logical that she would have, after Day 1.

x...The people I was going to make a case against need to stop being killed. They definitely need to stop being ordos too, because that's just leading me to question everything I've been thinking all game. Looks like Ima go reevaluate. Elfpoodoo.

This was after Nog was killed. It would indicate she didn't dream of him, obviously. I wonder if the Night 2 dream might not have been Sally, in fact.
People I think are innocent:
Phantom
Nerwen
Shasta
Mira

People I suspect so are thus probably innocent:
Foley

People I tend to trust so are thus probably furry:
Kath
Rune
Steve

People I don't particularly have feelings on:
Greenie
Legate
Lommy
Zil

I'll elaborate more on that later, but the meeting I woke up for was cancelled so I'll be going back to bed now and hopefully not waking up again until my afternoon meeting.

There she has tp, Nerwen, and Shasta as her "Innocents." No sort of analysis on any of them. It's conceivable those were her dreams, and finding Sally innocent Day 2 was the result of her own reading. There's room for doubt, though, on the latter two.

Anndd....that appears to be it.

Based on that, I think we can at least conclude phantom's innocence.
*mutters*

x/d with Nerwen

[the phantom]

So what tipped them off to Mira?
I expect it's because Rune and I were wrong. We were the only other logical Seer choices. I had this fear all of yesterday that I was choosing the wrong Seer candidate (Mira's plea not to be lynched from lack of participation made me nervous), but in the end I attempted to poach the dreams of the candidate who had actually been playing (Rune).

If it weren't for his rather explicit statement about Lommy and I being innocent, I would have without any doubt guessed at Mira being the Seer and at the end of the day I would have hinted that I had dreamt Mira, Shasta, and Nerwen to be innocent, and then the Elves probably would have killed me.

But instead I picked Rune as my Seer and so in my ruse I claimed that he and Lommy were innocent, along with Kath (I added Kath because I thought three dreams would look more powerful). What that tells me is that it is nearly a guarantee that Rune, Lommy, or Kath is an Elf, and likely that Rune or Lommy is.

And just to point out, if Mira's grouping of me-Shasta-Nerwen with her in the innocent column wasn't meant to be Seer dream info, then I'd say we're screwed. A Seer knows they're the Seer and knows that people are going to go back and read their posts if they die, and so if she chose in her final post to say that Phantom, Shasta, and Nerwen were in the same innocence category as herself, then we HAVE to operate based upon that. If that's wrong then it is not our fault. We can't worry about that.

So, everyone mark it down- DO NOT vote as a Rep anyone other than Shasta-Nerwen-Phantom unless we come up with some sort of five-lynch plan. Agreed?

[Folwren]

Is Mira experienced enough to realize that after her death all her comments on innocents are going to be used as evidence in their favor? Surely she wouldn't put up as her most highly trusted people those she had not dreamt of? Hope not.

I half thought yesterday that I might be night-killed because it was possible the wolves would've thought I was seer. To be quite honest, I thought Nerwen was our seer, based on something she said day 1. That was why I was pretty upset when Greenie was going to try to get her lynched. I thought it'd be pretty ridiculous if the village lynched their own seer.

I'd like to hear a lot more from Rune, Steve, and Kath today. Otherwise, I'll be inclined to suspect them. I seirously am under the impression that Shasta, Inzil, and Phantom are all innocent. Oh, and Nerwen, of course.

-- Fols

[Shastanis Althreduin]

But instead I picked Rune as my Seer and so in my ruse I claimed that he and Lommy were innocent, along with Kath (I added Kath because I thought three dreams would look more powerful). What that tells me is that it is nearly a guarantee that Rune, Lommy, or Kath is an Elf, and likely that Rune or Lommy is.

Only if the Elves didn't buy your Seer-act for the specific reason that you named at least one as an innocent. I'm not at all saying I disagree with you here, Phantom - in fact I would be surprised if Lommy in particular wasn't an Elf at this point - but saying "nearly a guarantee" is pushing things a bit far, I think.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Phantom
But instead I picked Rune as my Seer and so in my ruse I claimed that he and Lommy were innocent, along with Kath (I added Kath because I thought three dreams would look more powerful). What that tells me is that it is nearly a guarantee that Rune, Lommy, or Kath is an Elf, and likely that Rune or Lommy is.
Only if the Elves didn't buy your Seer-act for the specific reason that you named at least one as an innocent. I'm not at all saying I disagree with you here, Phantom - in fact I would be surprised if Lommy in particular wasn't an Elf at this point - but saying "nearly a guarantee" is pushing things a bit far, I think.

True. However, they didn't buy Foley as the Seer either. Look at this list:

Probably Innocent
Nerwen
Inzil
Lommy

Less certain but leaning towards innocent
Shasta
Legate
Phantom
Kath

Also less certain, but leaning towards guilty this time
Rune
Mira

I have a guilty feeling about:
Greenie
Steve

Now PLEASE don't freak out about Greenie's name being there. I KNOW I voted for her, but it was only after I voted for her and then started reading more posts (remember, I'm way behind due to Day2) and she started posting more posts that I got a bad, bad, bad feeling about her. I feel something is wrong. I don't have time to go back and figure it out now, but I wanted to put out my list in case any of you reps really cared.

And Foley's later comment about me must have looked very Seerish. So why wasn't she killed? Is it because the Elves reasoned that she couldn't have dreamed Greenie plus three innocents? But she makes it pretty clear that her suspicion of Greenie was based on the latter's posting only– and, after all, she voted for her.

[Nerwen]

So, where do the different lines of reasoning lead us?

1. Theory: Mira was killed as the only Seer-candidate who hadn't listed an Elf as innocent (or wasn't a Elf). Other possible "Seers" would be would be Rune (Lommy, Kath, phantom), Folwren (Nerwen, Inzil, Lommy), phantom (copied Rune's list, substituting Rune's name for his).
Implicates: Rune, Kath, Lommy (twice), Zil. And Folwren for the sake of argument, though after yesterDay there's much against the idea that she is an Elf. A good deal against Zil being one, too.

2. Theory: Greenie went after Nerwen (rep) because there was no innocent non-rep she could have lynched easily.
Implicates: Steve. Perhaps Legate? (I'd have to re-read; reckon she could have got Steve lynched, anyway/)


3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead):
Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Here for a short moment, just briefly...

Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree?
Looks like that to me, and I think that's the basic line I am going to hold. I need to review all; in any case, I don't think it's some 100% free pass, but basically I would try to go with that and refrain from voting the three of you.

couldn't our Seer have been someone who, I don't know, participated?
Basically exactly the same wording of what I wanted to say as I saw it...

Given her rep vote for Phantom early on, I'm inclined to think Phantom was her Night 1 dream.i
Well, I think it doesn't necessary mean that - it could just have been a good way to cast a random vote, hoping to get lost in the crowd of phantom-voters and get some pass for the Day from the SoE (for being a bit suspicious, and too random for being the Seer). It would expose her to some threat of being lynched, but then, there were like two other people who did the same, so she could have hoped for merging with the crowd, so to say, and not feeling the threat so strongly.

I find it more likely that she'd dream of phantom later - certainly after the Day 1 events, I think in any case, every Seer would do that. But I didn't really have time to go through all her posts and am working only based on my memory and what others quote here. I will look at her posts later myself. Not that it seems to matter whether she dreamt of tp on Night 1 or whatnot. Basically the three-list above is the thing I am going to use. It is quite lucky that anyway, if it is so, she didn't dream of somebody who died at the same Night - that's actually what I had been afraid of all the time, since the Seer didn't seem to come out with any dreams.

So what tipped them off to Mira? She did so little else that I think it must have been her post at #627– specifically, her list of three innocents. Thing is, I don't think you (phantom) were the only other per person who made a list of three, so that might tell us something. (Need to check.)

There was at least phantom and especially Foley with sorta similar list and possibly some Seer-ish things ("don't lynch Nerwen"). There definitely must be reasons why the SoE chose Mira over everybody else, that's also worth looking at - but will have to do it when I come back.

Okay, whatever, gotta run now. Will be back later toDay, in several hours...

[Nerwen]

Hey, anyone around? I'm lonely.

By the way–
It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable.
:D:p:smokin:

[Inziladun]

Hey, anyone around? I'm lonely.

I'm here momentarily, but maybe not for long, since I just got into work and see all the voice and e-mails. :rolleyes:

I do like the quote, though.

[Folwren]

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable.

Eh...yeah...that was me. I didn't mean anything by it. :o Glad it amused you. :p

I am at work and I'll have my eye on this, but I won't have time to investigate anybody.

-- Fol

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead):
Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)

Not going to disagree, it was a forced vote to some extend.

It was not like I had anything in particular against voting for Greenie, but I wouldn't have done it if it wasn't for you guys and Folwren.

People are starting to talk a lot about Lommy, I for some reason have had a lot of faith in her.

First I thought she made sense and appeared very innocent, after that she made a post where she claimed to know Me, Legate and Nogrod quite well and believed us all to be innocent.

I am quite a ware that a SoE could easily create such a list as they know exactly who is innocent and who isn't, but in this case I chose to believe that it was pure skill that made her pick innocents. (This is also the reason I haven't really paid attention to Legate, also I can never get a read on him)

I will not end this post with a conclusion, I am merely telling you what thoughts I have had about Lommy.

[Nerwen]

I just hope the Cupcake's reading this.;)

Anyway, I think it might be an idea if we followed the phantom's suggestion (can I really be saying this?) and elected me, tp and Shasta as reps.

EDIT:X'd with Rune.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I just hope the Cupcake's reading this.;)

Anyway, I think it might be an idea if we followed the phantom's suggestion (can I really be saying this?) and elected me, tp and Shasta as reps.

I am fine with this.

[Inziladun]

I know I won't be around at DL, and probably not for a few hours before that. I intend to get back here later, but I'll go ahead and do this now.

++phantom for rep

Seems the most likely to have been dreamed by Mira.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Anyway, I think it might be an idea if we followed the phantom's suggestion (can I really be saying this?) and elected me, tp and Shasta as reps.

I think the idea is good, and anyway, I can't see any more "foolproof" option now. Speaking of this, I am not sure how much I will be online tomorrow anyway, so even if somebody had other ideas, I do not suggest voting me for Rep. But this should solve the problem nicely.

How many of us are there? Do we want the three to have equal amount of votes? I think that'd be the best. Of tp, Shasta and Nerwen, I would prefer to give my vote to Nerwen, as I like her the most - I don't know so much about Shasta other than he was on Mira's list, and giving a vote to tp... well... (oh yes, of course it's such a lifetime event that I would prefer to do it with fanfares and all that stuff...) But if we all decide to give our votes to those three, it does not matter, effectively, who votes for whom. Related to this, though, we should then still at least express our opinions as to whom we would like to lynch, or whom we trust etc., so that we don't just sit idly around, and most of all, so that we have some leading (because if the Day just consisted of everybody mechanically voting one of the three, there won't be much to analyse).

I probably will spend the evening with at least a few analyses, especially if I am not going to be around much toMorrow. Shall be around...

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm...

I think today I'm going to got through everybody's ties with Lottie and Greenie, and also check Mira's posts myself. I'm inclined to think right now that she'd have been unforgivably stupid if she had let undreamt people to her "innocent" category in her last post so seems like we can take phantom, Nerwen and Shasta's innocence for granted. (But I still find Shasta's innocence difficult to believe especially after Greenie was revealed a wolf! That was good job guy btw. :))

If Zil, Rune or Lommy is an Elf, he or she quite gratuitously bussed a comrade. (Can't rule that out, though.) Add in Foley, who played a large role in getting A Little Green Elf lynched.So if we go by this simple logic it leaves only Eönwë, Kath and Legate as two wolves and one innocent? I'd love it if it was that easy...

Anyway, I think it might be an idea if we followed the phantom's suggestion (can I really be saying this?) and elected me, tp and Shasta as reps.Sounds plausible. And I wouldn't want to be a rep anyway after all because I might miss all the second half of this Day (this is something I forgot yesterDay).

And seems like my theory about tp being a village-friendly UO in contact with the seer was proved wrong. What a pity - I really thought I knew what was up with his scheming... I also have to admit speculating he was the real seer (now that would've been just really cool!).

Off to have dinner, then off to analyse.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
If Zil, Rune or Lommy is an Elf, he or she quite gratuitously bussed a comrade. (Can't rule that out, though.) Add in Foley, who played a large role in getting A Little Green Elf lynched.

So if we go by this simple logic it leaves only Eönwë, Kath and Legate as two wolves and one innocent? I'd love it if it was that easy...
It would be nice... but I think what I'm really saying is not that the rest of you can't be guilty, but that any case made on any of you has to include an explanation of why you did that.

[Nerwen]

Anyway–
++Shasta for Rep

[Folwren]

So, wait..what's going to happen if we get these three people into representative spots? Are we killing three people tonigt? Isn't that Phantom's plan?

-- Foley

[Kath]

phantom, Shasta or Nerwen?

Mira would have dreamt of phantom for sure, and if he was evil she'd have made it clear.

++phantom for Rep

Sorry, voting and running toDay.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Nerwen for Rep

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Nerwen

I'd just like to say publically that I feel the worst about Legate and Lommy right now, but I won't have time to say why until about four hours until after the second half of toDay starts. Sorry, all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I went through all Greenie's posts, trying to find what she said about other people and how it might possibly help us. There are some things interesting, but generally, she seemed rather careful what she says about people, except for when she decided for heedless pursuit of somebody (like sally or partially Nerwen).

Day 1:

On first Day, she, in my opinion rather obviously sought a way to incriminate the phantom and save Lottie by picking sally out of the two. She made a list in the first half of the Day, while some players (Cel, Kath, Mira, Steve and Wilwa) haven't been around yet. Later, she seemed in a hurry and aside from her vote, she only had a large list of players whom she found "innocentish" in the second part of the Day (Lommy, Shasta, Rune, Foley and Nerwen); and then she suspected the phantom-triangle (sally, Lottie, tp).

Conclusions: depending on her tactics and on who of her mates was around, she didn't have to necessary express her opinions on each of them; but I would find it logical that she would try to make at least some of her mates look good, or at least not incriminate them (she already had Lottie for that anyway). That said, she didn't really seem to try to incriminate anybody except for the tp trio. If she put one of her mates into the list of "innocentish" people, then there are our "known innocents"; if we take them off, Rune, Lommy and Foley remain. Which is not exactly encouraging at least to me, as those folks seem rather innocent to me in general - if I was to pick, then I would say that Rune is the most likely to me to be a SoE. Might be that Greenie kept all her mates out in the "more or less nothing"-cathegory, or that they simply haven't been around yet (which means basically Steve and Kath of those who are alive).

Day 2:
Didn't want to get much into the phantom-Nerwen row. Once again she made a list of everybody, with rather dubious "I hope there are no elves here" by-the-way-comment in the "not alarming" cathegory. Aside from those she thought "innocentish" on Day 1, in this cathegory there is also me, Nog, Phantom (surprise!) and Wilwa. There is also "under the radar" cathegory (Cel, Glirdy, Kath, Mira, Steve, Zil) and "makes me bang my head against the wall" with Nerwen and Sally. She seemed to flip-flop, or respectively pretend to flip-flop on Nerwen. While once again mentioning whom she trusts, she mentioned Nog, Shasta, Rune and phantom. She quite suddenly voted Steve for Rep.

After the Reps have been chosen, she said she is happy with them all: Shasta and Foley totally and Nog, Legate and Steve "all inclined to find more innocentish than not but that I'd love to get a better feel of". Later liked Kath, more wary of Wilwa but still finding her innocent, and she told the Reps to lynch sally and "wouldn't object to lynching Cel or Mira". Wished the Reps would leave Shasta, Lommy, Wilwa and tp alone; also didn't want Rune to be lynched.

Conclusions: if Nerwen is innocent, then Greenie could have here very well just started to look for chances to incriminate somebody else beyond herself who didn't vote exactly for Lottie, or something like that, and found her for that. The biggest "move" was probably her suddenly being ok with the phantom and suddenly choosing Steve (she said she did so by following Rune's example, but never gave more explanation) while before she had him merely as "no read". I don't know if a SoE would vote for a mate so obviously and in such way, and her flip-flops on Steve seem not to have any logical reasoning behind them. Could have been that she tried to get a fellow for Rep, but then again, why so clumsily - unless e.g. on Day 1 she wanted to keep distance from him and suddenly after Lottie's death the SoE realised they need to get him there, or something... but it's just rather weird (also would depend on who would be the last SoE). But generally, she seemed to list basically everybody as either innocent or "no read" at most, and kept focusing on sally and on sally only, and flip-flopping on Nerwen. In any case, if I was to think of her general strategy, from this it seems to me that she tried to be just on good terms with everybody and not listing more or less anybody as suspicious.

Day 3:
Admits "barking at the wrong sally" for two Days, thinks tp innocent, raised some suspicion against Steve and started to have second thoughts even on some people she thought innocent before (especially Shasta and me, and suddenly switched Rune into "undecided" cathegory). Later debated among two undecided - Rune and Inzil - and two she thought innocent - Lommy and Foley - for Reps, ended up with Inzil.

Later, when being the Rep herself again, she seemed to play on all sides, considering basically all three other Reps at some point, whether she could not vote one of them, although her cases for Inzil and Rune seemed forced (and she basically discarded them herself, since she didn't have any earlier basis for them). Ended up voting Nerwen, which didn't work, as we all know.

Conclusion: Basically once again, she had people at most in the "undecided" cathegory. She didn't really suspect anybody, but she had some dubious flip-flopping remarks on just about everyone.

Overall conclusion: I think I just spent a few hours with not really getting too much out of that. There doesn't seem to be any clear pattern in Greenie's behavior, except that she tries to behave in a "politically correct" way. This way, she could easily place her fellows into any cathegory she likes and flip-flop on them as much as she wants.

Of the living players, she seemed to be "buttering up" Lommy the most - and I really wonder if she'd do that if Lommy was her fellow Wolf. Kath or even Zil would seem more likely, or Foley. She made quite interesting almost-180-changes on Steve. She said a lot about those who are on Mira's list, she supported Shasta quite strongly basically all the way, and had constant thoughts about Nerwen, in one way or another.

The name sticking the most out of the analysis, then, if I discount phantom, Shasta and Nerwen, is Steve. Even that is, however, still just one name. And the main problem I find is that I cannot find a link of two people there, like two other Wolves. In any case, this is probably it from me toDay - I am going to Rep-vote and go. And like I said, I will be around toMorrow probably only late in the evening. Just hope the Reps decide well.

[the phantom]

Inzil-->Phantom
Nerwen-->Shasta
Kath-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Nerwen
Shasta-->Nerwen (2)

Okay, so, Shasta needs another vote to make him a Rep. What we do with other votes is up to you people. Do you want all of us to be tied with 2 or 3 Rep votes so we can triple-lynch if we wish? Or is a double all you'd go for?

Anyway, sorry I haven't been around much, but today is a very busy day. The second half of the day will be better for me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, there's 10 of us, right? That means if we vote only those we spoke of, then basically three people vote for each Rep, and each Rep will have three votes, and then one of us shouldn't vote, or somebody will just have one more vote.

In either case, now the situation should be (if I counted right): Phantom is a Rep with 2, Nerwen is a Rep with 2, and Shasta has 1. I assume somebody to vote for Shasta still, and I said earlier that I prefer Nerwen anyway - and jokes aside, I'd trust her the most (and even in case we were wrong about Mira's list and there was a Wolf among these three, I find her the least likely). So basically here goes the third vote -

++Nerwen for Rep

Good night, see you later in the second half of toDay; Reps, choose well.

EDIT: x-ed with phantom

[Eönwë]

NOOOO!

Though, to be honest, it was only a matter of time. She was the one I thought most likely out of the two people I thought could be the seer (The other being Legate), which I came up with on the basis of possible subtle hints by usage of words from the "Seerish" lexical group, such as "see", "look" and "dream".

For example, the Ima go take a look at sally's posts for the past couple days. jumped out to me, especially the "take a look at sally" part, which I read as a hint that she wanted to dream Sally that Night, especially as she mentioned her all Day.

This, for example, with that knowledge, looks like a distressed Seer that is worried about their dreams being ineffective for their side: x...The people I was going to make a case against need to stop being killed. They definitely need to stop being ordos too, because that's just leading me to question everything I've been thinking all game. Looks like Ima go reevaluate. Elfpoodoo.

And I agree that she probably didn't have Nog as her choice, because in
Nog isn't making my head hurt, which a new and interesting experience. That does make me a tad suspicious with no backup for that though. The "a tad suspicious with no backup" suggests that she doesn't have any evidence.

For Legate, I was just thinking small things like "Mesa see" and "But we shall see" in his first post, as well as his vague tone which would not offend anyone too much suggested a possible Seerdom.

Anyway, my point was, if I can see it (and I'm not really known for my receptivity to nuances), then I'm pretty sure it wasn't that hidden. That said, it's always sad to see the seer go before revealing (and revealing the last wolves).

And seems like my theory about tp being a village-friendly UO in contact with the seer was proved wrong. What a pity - I really thought I knew what was up with his scheming... How does him being innocent mean that he's not the UO? He could have been the UO and just decided to stick with the village (And, according to the rules, Mira would have been updated with regards to which side he chose).

And I agree with the general idea that Phantom, Nerwen and Shasta are most likely to be innocent based on Mira's posts, though it does seem convenient that her three most likely "dreams" are all still alive.




Well, this post was from a few hours ago, and I had to go before I could finish off a few sentences, so I'm x-ing with everything after Rune's vote for Nerwen and am going to read what I've missed.
edit: Well, not too many actually, by the looks of it.