Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Boromir88]

For all the roles see here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=16886).

I just realized I've not stated the winning conditions for all parties, so I will do so here and then add it on to the first post in the Admin Thread.

Wolves: if the Barrow-wight is still alive, the wolves win if the number of innocents is 1 less than their own. If the Barrow-wight is gone, the wolves win if the number of innocents is equal (or less) than their own.

The innocents win if they eliminate all evils from their town (wolves and Barrow-wight) - this includes Tom Bombadil.

The Barrow-wight wants everyone dead and wins if its the last thing standing.
_________

Put a ++ in front of the person you're voting for and bold it...

++Boro

DL is 6pm EST (11pm GMT). All votes with the time of :00 will be counted, anything :01 or later not.

There are no double-lynches all ties will be determined by a coinflip. If it's a 3-way or more tie, I pull a name from a hat.

There are no clues to anyone's roles in the narrations.

The narrations will make it clear on what events took place during the night.
_________

Fea (honorary co-mod)

PLAYER-LIST
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Glirdan
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

No posting. Night 1 narration to follow.

[Boromir88]

A crowd of townspeople, from Bree, had gathered inside the Prancing Pony. Business had been dying ever since the wolf howls started, and rumors of the rangers leaving entered the typical inn chatter. There had also been several strangers passing through these days, unscrupulous folk who just dont look or feel Mannish. Most of the outsiders wind up leaving soon enough, and the Bree folk weren't distraught by their leaving. However, a few strangers have stayed around longer, and they look like trouble. Most Bree people just lock themselves inside nowadays, hoping no trouble would find them.

On this gloomy and haunting night, the Prancing Pony was more busy than it had been in months. Although you newcomers wouldn't be able to tell this was a "busy" night of late. There was no lively music and the overall atmosphere was dead. Folk mostly sat by themselves or huddled in a small group, talking in whispers around a table.

The door creaked open and two more strangers walked into the Inn. A pretty and mysterious looking dark-haired woman, followed by a tall, slender fair skinned man. If the inn was quiet before the strangers walked in, it was dead now, besides the one man hustling from table to table attending the patrons of his Inn. The woman, of all things, had really short hair, too short that's natural for a lady to have. The man looked too well kept, almost like a pampered Elf. These two wreaked of stranger.

"Good evening masters. I'm Barliman Butterbur, the owner of this establishment. Most call me Barley or just Butterbur. What can I do for you? If you're seeking accomadations, we've got more than enough rooms available."

"Yes, we'll take two rooms" said the man. "We're heading south. It's getting far too chilly and dark outside, we'd just need a place to stay for the night."

"Right this way then masters. I'll take you up and show you to your rooms. If you need anything to eat or drink, just come back down and find me. It shouldn't be that hard to do with the way business has been lately."

Barley led the strangers through the common room and everyone looked at them with suspicious caution. One man stood up and shouted "Barley! Why are you giving rooms to these folk! I haven't seen their faces in Bree before. These are dark times, we can't just let strangers come in and stay in our homes!"

"When last I looked, this was my home, not yours." retorted Barley. When the three got upstairs and Butterbur showed the strangers their rooms he said, "Don't mind our gate-keeper, Harry downstairs. He means well. He's just scared. We all are..." Butterbur ended. He attempted a smile to relieve the awkwardness but just said "-erm, well I've got business waiting downstairs." and left without another word.

The two strangers looked at eachother for a moment, trying to figure out what all that was about and why the Inkeep was clearly troubled by something unspeakable. But instead just left for their rooms to sleep for the night.

It is Night 1. No posting yet. (15 minutes late, yes yes...sorry). Wolves talk. Seer give me a name to dream.

[Boromir88]

A crazy storm knocked out my power and it came back about 10 minutes ago. I won't have time to finish the narration right now.

So, Fea is dead from wolf bites and me...I am in a stone cold stupor.

It is now Day 1. Wolves no more private chatter. Everyone...get on with it! :D Narration up later.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Glirdan
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

DEAD
Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies

[Inziladun]

An hour and a half into it and I'm the first one to post? That pretty much means everyone is tied at #1 in my "suspicious" category. :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

An hour and a half into it and I'm the first one to post? That pretty much means everyone is tied at #1 in my "suspicious" category. :rolleyes:

Or that I've passed my cold to everyone and no one feels up to posting. :(

*snuggles everyone, offers blankets*

[The Elf-warrior]

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

[satansaloser2005]

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

We could, technically. After all, there are three wolves, and three posters....

....

....

Probably not the best argument for me to jump onto, is it? :rolleyes:


ETA: A note that I may not be back tonight. Seriously, I feel nasty. I need a nap. I'd make a separate post but I'm dangerously close to 4,000 so I want to be careful, etc. Tomorrow will be busy so I may not vote toDay, though I'm hoping that won't be happening. Just an fyi. :/

[The Elf-warrior]

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves.

[Inziladun]

All I know is we can't all be wolves.
We could, technically. After all, there are three wolves, and three posters....

Of course we could, statistically unlikely though it is.

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets? One Cobbler can be a decisive factor in favour of the wolves (as a recent event proved ;)), so two are worse, especially when one of them has the power to locate the other Cobbler or the wolves by Night.

x/d with TEW

[Loslote]

Probably not the best argument for me to jump onto, is it? :rolleyes:

Why ever not? :Merisu:

Anyway, I'm here, so the fun can start.

...

So the fun can start.

...

C'mon, guys, fun. Let's go, let's go. :p

[Inziladun]

C'mon, guys, fun. Let's go, let's go. :p

Where are we going, Lottiepop?

[Loslote]

Where are we going, Lottiepop?

Along this valley track. :Merisu:

[Inziladun]

Along this valley track. :Merisu:

Right, then. I'll bring along my ice lolly. 7-Up flavoured!

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Tornado sirens are not a good thing. Time to check the weather.

Who's suspicious, anyway?

Sally for having a cold?

TEW for declaring his innocence early?

Lottie for being her plucky, lovable self?

Me for making a list?

[Loslote]

Note: the contents of the poem I just referred to in no way have any bearing whatsoever on my role. Figured a disclaimer was necessary.

Also: I think we should, for the most part, leave TB and TBW to their own devices. Yeah, lynching TBW would be great, but even better would be having TB kill him overNight, because then we have an extra lynch. There's no real way to ensure that we do this, but if we do have a suspicion that someone is TBW, let's ask TB to try to kill xem overNight, rather than lynching them.

Discuss. :p

EDIT: xed with Zil

[The Elf-warrior]

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.

[Loslote]

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

[Inziladun]

I don't think we're likely to easily find the BW, short of a Seer dream. Xe has the luxury of playing for xemself, and can thus switch loyalties on a dime from village to wolves. That can make it hard to spot a pattern.

If we somehow get a good idea of who xe might be, and there are no better (ie, wolfy) candidates for the Day, I could get behind a lynch. The BW is mainly dangerous for its ability to block the Seer or the Ranger, so it would be risky to leave it to Bombadil and hope xe got it right, or wasn't blocked xemself.

x/d with Lottie

[Loslote]

If we somehow get a good idea of who xe might be, and there are no better (ie, wolfy) candidates for the Day, I could get behind a lynch. The BW is mainly dangerous for its ability to block the Seer or the Ranger, so it would be risky to leave it to Bombadil and hope xe got it right, or wasn't blocked xemself.

But if we think we know who TBW is, we can let TB hunt him that Night. TB doesn't need to get it right on his own. Xe just needs to be able to use his power. If we can guess who TBW is, then TB can probably, too - or at the very least, xe can see that we think we know who it is and take a hint. The only reason TB wouldn't have the same information on the TBW suspect as we would is if xe'd already tried the suspect, and found xem to be not TBW - in which case, we're better off not lynching xem for suspicion of being TBW anyway. (For suspicion of being a wolf is another question entirely.)

[Glirdan]

Xe has the luxury of playing for xemself, and can thus switch loyalties on a dime from village to wolves. That can make it hard to spot a pattern.

If you want to get really technical, the BW almost acts as the Bear role in this sense. The only two differences? He doesn't KILL and there is another role to take xem down.

I for one do not believe that TBW should be on our priority list. If it so happens that we take him out in a lynch, cool. But our efforts should be on finding the Wolves, and for this game definitely the Cobblers as there are two of them. Some of us just learned how dangerous the Cobbler can be at the end. :rolleyes:

Personally, I say let TB worry about TBW. After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ :p;) ] that won't be a problem.

[The Elf-warrior]

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

[Nerwen]

Also: I think we should, for the most part, leave TB and TBW to their own devices. Yeah, lynching TBW would be great, but even better would be having TB kill him overNight, because then we have an extra lynch. There's no real way to ensure that we do this, but if we do have a suspicion that someone is TBW, let's ask TB to try to kill xem overNight, rather than lynching them.
Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.
Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

[The Elf-warrior]

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind?

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves.

Methinks you doth protest too much? :p

On a more serious note, I'm actually in agreement with people (for once) that the BW isn't a huge threat at the moment. According to the rules, they have to kill off everyone else (which seems like it be a mite difficult, but I digress). However, my heart has a good question - Wightish evil as opposed to Wolfish evil? Bears, by their nature, are much harder to track down since they don't have the connections to packmates that the wolves do - they're just like an ordo with an added bonus, almost. But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

[Nerwen]

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

In other words, you can't really tell... not enough to take the risk of leaving a suspicious person to his or her own devices.

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.
Precisely, my pearl. I'm sure we all remember how, in days of yore when a leave-the-cobbler-alone school of thought prevailed, it was common for wolves to pretend to be the cobbler.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Poor Fea. Mind you, at least now I can keep that wight wine I barrowed from her.

[Volo]

I have this vision [stricktly not of a Seerish kind] that if the world was a ball (yea, sounds silly), there'd be a slightly oversized hamster inside of it, rolling the ball from inside.

Uh, excuse me for that. I think it's just aftershock. Even though these are dark times, not often does one hear about something as freaky as that.

I do not mean this as a discouragement for discussion, but at such an early point it, it might be dangerous to speculate seriously whether a Wolf would act like xe was the BW. Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.
Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Unfortunately I've done more than my share of giving unwanted advice for now as I'm late from an appointment. Back in several hours.

[A Little Green]

Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.I agree with the first part - the BW doesn't know anyone's role, and since s/he wants everyone dead, s/he has no motive to protect anybody - except maybe if s/he thought somebody is useful for his/her purposes. The BW's number one priority during Day phase is to avoid getting lynched, and especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers and less on the BW, actually, since I'm highly doubtful we can catch the BW anytime soon. I was contemplating the cobbler issue just now, trying to make out how serious a threat they present. In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.

[Kath]

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them. :)

[A Little Green]

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!)Kath, you impress me!

[Volo]

Hello, folks!

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches, but if anyone's around and not knowing what exactly to say, I'd like to ask the following: What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s? Talk about the weather and then lynch anyone who's name starts with an M? (Which would be quite troublesome in the current game...)

[Aganzir]

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets?
*likes this plan* :D

But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.
Sounds reasonable, but what do we really learn from it? If half the village said, "I think Lottie is the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil should try to drive her out tonight!" and you were still alive the following day, how can we tell Bombadil chose you and not someone else? We'd still keep arguing about whether you're the BW or not.

The BW can afford to be opportunistic and side with whomever she thinks benefits her the most. However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.
Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.
That's a good point. We can of course hope that the BW can spot impersonating attempts and, in her pride, stuns the person in question as a punishment. :p

especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.
My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts. I have no reason not to believe we can't catch the BW, but yes the wolves & cobblers should still be our priority.

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers
I like this game! Everyone wants to talk about the cobblers! :D

and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together.
That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
But yes I agree with Greenie that the risk of getting a big baddie team is pretty high, and that's why we definitely shouldn't ignore the cobblers either. They are at their most dangerous when they have a way to find/contact the wolves.

As for Butterbur, the longer he stays alive the better. Of course his death is good for us even early in the game, but the wolves' missing a kill means much more later on when there are fewer people alive.

[Aganzir]

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches
Nonsense! It's never too early! :p

What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s?
I have been very much into talking about the cobbler(s) for the last year or two. General rule-talk is also popular. Basically it's just whatever you find worth saying.

[Volo]

Thanks for the answer, Agan. :D

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. :)

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

[Aganzir]

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

[A Little Green]

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts.Good point, though I have to disagree with a part of it. With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine. The BW has no such knowledge, and will likely seem just like and ordo in that sense. That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.I know it's unlikely. That is why I labelled it as "the most fearsome scenario" instead of "the likely scenario", you know. :D It was simply the worst possible scenario I could come up with when thinking about the cobbler business.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine.
Yeah that's true, but we have no way of knowing what's genuine and what isn't until we have more information, and even then there might be misguided innocents who look ah so guilty. Although I suppose my comment about the knowledge of not being innocent showing in the wolves' posts comes, in the end, down to the posts not looking genuine... So we seem to be talking about essentially the same thing, just from different points of view.
Anyway I still think it's possible to see the BW is hiding something, just like players might look different when they're playing a gifted.

I like Greenie for now. This is unusual because normally I always suspect her. :p

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath
While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.
*awaits Kath's response*:smokin:

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.
Too complicated, I think.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior
Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.
Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.
That is something: there's certainly liable to be some kind of signalling among the baddies– they've got a lot to gain by it this game. That doesn't mean it'll be anything so obvious, of course.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Inziladun]

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

[Nerwen]

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:
The innocents win if they eliminate all evils from their town (wolves and Barrow-wight) - this includes Tom Bombadil.

[Inziladun]

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:

Heh. I read that as meaning Tom wins if he and the rest of the innocents get rid of the wolves and the BW. Unless Tom's been hiding some dark secret? :eek:

[Aganzir]

Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.
I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.

As for speculating on whether a wolf might try to pretend to be the BW, why not? If there's a consensus we're not going to lynch someone just because they look like the BW, it'll be more than convenient for a wolf to do exactly that. Wolves have pretended to be cobblers if the village has thought finding the cobbler isn't important.
However, impersonating the BW is almost equal to trying to look like an ordo which is what wolves do, anyway...

since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.
Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

For the record, I'm most likely not going to vote for Form or Volo today because it's ages since I played with them.

edit: xed with Nerwen & Zil. I read it the same way as Zil, although it did give me a moment's what the heck pause when I first read it.

[Pitchwife]

You folks all sound so dreadfully sober - have you all turned teatotallers or what? And with Barley's beer being the best on the East Road! Maybe a song will liven you up a bit...
*stands on table and sings to a well known, but barely recognizable tune*

There is an inn, a merry old inn,
with a hey dol derry dillo,
And there they brew a beer so brown
That the Man in the Moon himself came down
one night to drink his fill-o
And there he dozed and dreamed of ale,
the barmaid's bosom his pillow,
Till the landlord lifts his hand
Over snoring drunkards, broken mugs and beer-soaked ashtrays...

*looks sheepishly at the circle of serious, disapproving faces, mumbles something and climbs off the table to help himself to another pint*

OK, to business. As for the cobblers, we've had this discussion any number of times, and the big problem is, as always, that it's not so easy to tell cobblerish evil from wolvish evil. TEW has a point that they would very likely prefer not to be lynched (or Night-killed*, for that matter) before they've had a chance to communicate, but then again, I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player. So the long and short of it is, if it looks suspicious, lynch it and we'll find out what it was.
(*Aside, does anybody else think that Boro included two cobblers in this game in order to increase the chance that at least one of them won't be eaten by the wolves?:D)

Now, Tom and the Barrow-Wight. I agree with Shasta and Nerwen that it'll be tricky to find the BW, so for the moment, leaving xem to Tom may be our best chance. If, however, we think we have a good idea who xe is, or if the Seer dreams xem and decides to reveal, I'm for getting rid of xem as soon as possible, rather than wait for Tom to get xem. According to the Rules, the stunning occurs at the beginning of the Night, so the BW can try to protect xemself by stunning Tom and work mischief for another Day; and unlike the Seer, Tom can't reveal - so if we're extremely unlucky, we might even mislynch Tom instead of the BW, and what then?

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

(x-ed with a lot)

[wilwarin538]

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

I agree with both of these. If we somehow figure out who the BW might be we should leave it to Tom, that is his purpose and then we won't lose the lynch. But the problem is figuring out who the BW is in the first place. See other roles we can figure out, Gifteds might leave hints to the village, Cobblers will leave hints for the wolves, Wolves will have connections to each other or just do things that seem ungenuine, there are ways to figure out who they are. But the BW isn't connected to anyone, and they don't have to leave hints for anybody, so essentially they will act the same way as an Ordo, they want all the Wolves dead anyway (though they also want all of us dead too eventually). They are almost completely unbiased so they will be hard to spot. Which leads me to this:


Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.


Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night, and basically if he chose a Gifted that's a Gifted revealing themselves (the Wolves will know they aren't one of them so they either have to be Ferny, Tom or one of the Gifteds). And a Wolf is unlikely to step forward and say it was them, that's too much attention on them.

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

I don't think this is a good idea either. I think we'll just end up wasting a bunch of time trying to find the BW when we should be focusing on the Wolves, and having to do a second set of votes will cause a lot of confusion. I think we should trust Tom with this, and even if we know that someone isn't the BW there are still alot of things they could be, so it really isn't worth taking so much time focusing on him.

So basically I think we should forget about him for the moment, if the Seer comes forward and know who he is then we should give Tom a chance to go for him so we don't waste a lynch, if Tom is dead or something then we definitely go after him, but until then it'll be really hard to figure out who the BW is, and we could end up wasting a lot of time on him (when the Wolves, and Cobblers even, are a bigger threat).

Now the Cobblers. Ferny has his special little power (did he get a spy last Night?) and will want to leave hints of some sort so that the Wolves don't kill him, and Goatleaf will want to leave hints so that the Wolves don't kill him and so that Ferny can find him. So if they get too obvious we might be able to spot them. And I think after the way the last game went it's agreed that if we have an idea who a Cobbler is, we lynch them, none of this let them be stuff. Oh, and no ordo should false reveal as a Gifted...just saying. :rolleyes:

x'ed with a bunch

[Glirdan]

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

As I've mentioned (briefly anyways), TBW acts in the same fashion as the Werebear did, minus the killing. Having had personal experience as the Bear (and finally getting caught on Day 3 :D), I can tell you now that in our case, we should not worry too much about TBW as of right now.

My reasoning? In games with the Bear, it is up to the innocents to find xem along with finding the Wolves. It's much more difficult, however, to catch the Bear as xey have no ties with anyone but themselves and wanting victory for xself. However, the difference for us in this game is that there is a role specifically designed to go after TBW, thus eliminating our need to worry about TBW for the time being. I'm not saying we should forget TBW altogether, but at least for now, let Tom be the one to worry about it. Even as it is, as an innocent, I'm not too worried about TBW as is. He will only affect those with Nightly abilities, which sucks for us if he happens to nail our Seer or Ranger.

I am much more inclined to agree with Greenie and say let's abandon the talk of TBW for now and concentrate on the Cobblers, which (especially after the last game :rolleyes: ) pose a much bigger threat to us.

In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.

Indeed that would be a most devastating position for the village to be in if it so happens that Ferny does find the other one and has an idea of the Wolves.

We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I was looking at this and I do like this plan. My only issue with it is, even the TBW is totally playing for himself, the Wolves might find a way of using it to their advantage. But on the flip side of that coin, there stands the chance that we could catch a Wolf trying to do just that.

Now, going back to the Cobbler issue, is there any way we could use Agan's little plan there to oust the Cobblers? I know it would be much more difficult seeing as there is no one at Night gunning for them.

I'm going to go wrack my brain some more and think of something.

PS: Sorry I'm all of the place with this, tired and trying to stay up for another five hours before bed and work again :rolleyes:

EDIT: X'ed with Agan, Pitch and Vanilwamuffin

[Boromir88]

Mod note on Bombadil:

Sorry for the confusion in that first post. Tom is on the innocent team, his priority is the wight, but he also wants all evils gone from Bree. That note was intended to say Tom is included as an innocent and thus wants the village victory over both BW and the wolves.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

How can you people make such long posts already? It's qwight ridiculous. I can't think of any interesting points on rules and theory; all I can think about is lynching Kath. :p

[Aganzir]

I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player.
Exactly... and we can't count on the wolves to drop hints to the cobbler(s) because it's simply not worth it for them. Even though this game is different from many I've played in the sense that the cobbler(s) actually have a chance of finding the wolves without blatant hinting in the thread. Anyway if we want to find links, we should look into a dead cobbler's communication with other players, or how other players have talked to a dead wolf.

Aside, does anybody else think that Boro included two cobblers in this game in order to increase the chance that at least one of them won't be eaten by the wolves?
Hahaha! :D

If, however, we think we have a good idea who xe is, or if the Seer dreams xem and decides to reveal, I'm for getting rid of xem as soon as possible, rather than wait for Tom to get xem.
I agree, especially later in the game. Early on, yeah, I suppose we could afford to keep the BW alive for an extra day, but when most of us have died, it's simply too risky to give the BW a chance to join the wolves.

They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days
This is a very good point.

Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night
Ah but they will. The ordo gets a PM that says she was stunned (see the rules). That's why telling it to the rest of us does no more than eliminate a potential BW, thus making it easier for Tom & us to find her.

and even if we know that someone isn't the BW there are still alot of things they could be, so it really isn't worth taking so much time focusing on him.
But if we let her go unnoticed and don't pay any attention to her whatsoever, it can backfire really badly later. Hmm why do I have a feeling I've talked of this before? Oh yes this is how I usually treat the cobbler! :p

I'm not saying the BW should be our priority and we need to worry about her more than about the wolves & cobblers, what I'm saying is that we shouldn't forget and ignore her just because she might choose to side with us or Tom might hit it right and kill her. We simply can't refuse to pay attention to an unknown factor like that.

Now, going back to the Cobbler issue, is there any way we could use Agan's little plan there to oust the Cobblers? I know it would be much more difficult seeing as there is no one at Night gunning for them.
What exactly do you mean?

Alrighty I'll be gone for a few hours.

[Pitchwife]

Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.
I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.
Agreed that who isn't with us is against us, but what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"? The BW's stunnings may happen to work in favour of one party now or the other next, but xe wins if xe's the sole survivor, so xe wants all of us dead in the long run.

As for Agan's idea to vote on who Tom goes after, I think it'll distract us too much from finding the wolves, even if we could rely on Tom picking the person we chose. As for the thing with the people who've been stunned coming out, the claims can't be verified (unless the narration would mention somehow who was stunned, which I don't remember reading anything in the rules about, and if it would, the coming out would be redundant).

(x-ed from #48 down)

[Formendacil]

Whoa!

Apparently the game has started. :p

However, it's a Day 1, so I don't feel all that terrible about letting it slip my mind--I also have substantial chunks of the Eastern Daylight savings Timezone afternoon to flit on and off this thread while I pretend to do homework.

In the meantime, though, I have errand-like things to run.

P.S. Eomer, dear, you can't kill BOTH Kath and me--not in the course of one day, anyway. How about you flip a coin for us--I'll be Heads. :D

[Glirdan]

Now, going back to the Cobbler issue, is there any way we could use Agan's little plan there to oust the Cobblers? I know it would be much more difficult seeing as there is no one at Night gunning for them.

What exactly do you mean?

I knew I forgot to end that with a proper thought/idea.....yay for sleep deprivation....

Okay, so to continue my thought process on that, I was trying to figure out if there was anyway that we could use your voting plan to try help us oust the Cobblers, but now that I think about it, it would be quite redundant as we could just lynch cobblerish looking people.

And to clarify what I said about the 'no on at Night gunning for them' bit, I was referencing Tom and TBW. Seeing as at Night Tom is gunning for TBW and that's what your voting plan was based on, my idea to use it for the Cobblers is pretty much null and void.

EDIT: X'd with Formy

[Boromir88]

'Nother note on Bombadil, with regards to this part in the Admin thread...

Bombadil may be lynched or night-killed by the wolves and he may never reveal.

If Bombadil is killed, his role will be revealed to everyone. However, Bombadil himself, under no circumstances can reveal his role.

[Volo]

Yowiebowiedavidglowie!

Finally I'm home to concentrate on the game. Unfortunately I'll be needing my sleep and will probably quit in four or so hours.
I gave some more though to BW's role and motives. Although it has already been discussed for long lengths while I was absent and there has been a voice in favour of putting the discussion aside, I'll say what I think.
1. Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party. Instead, the Wolves.
2. The BW needs to be the last wight standing, so it is in xis favour to keep at least one Wolf alive, for the game to progress faster. Now if(when) we manage to lynch two Wolves, BW will be quite the Cobbler, though not as self-sacrificing as one. At that point especially it would be beneficial not to have xim reveal what xe knows openly.
Thus I believe it is in favour of the innocents to leave BW to TB, for until we know of either's demise.

More thoughts on other subjects after I get myself something to eat.

[Inziladun]

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party.

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

[Boromir88]

Bolding votes is all that is required Eomer, not highlighting. But if you've already departed, as it is it'll count.

[Volo]

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.
The hunches won't be much more educated than a basic Ordo's, but the ability to stun might give more insight, nothing certain, of course, but nevertheless, if we could kill a Cobbler quietly during the Night, it would surely be an advantage.

[Nogrod]

Kath posted on D1!!! Whoa! :cool:

Form said D1's are crap... a big surprise. :rolleyes:


Anyway, I suggest we call off this discussion as to which baddie should be our priority to something like D3 or 4 when we might actually have a possibility of speculating whether X looks more wolfy, Y more B-Wightly and Z more cobblerish... Without any total blunders from their side we're going more or less on some general "bad hunches", at least toDay; that someone doesn't feel genuine, that someone is too excited / too reserved, that someone just doesn't sit right.

The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.Although if the ranger is alive she wouldn't know even that...

Which brings to my first worry of the Day. My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.

She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal? With innocents it would be a more delicate matter: on the one hand we'd get a "known innocent" - but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right. But looking at the options and confusion that kind of deal would leave to the cobblers, but also to the wolves and gifteds - or even good thinking innocents (*rememberingSkip*) - I'd say we should be very careful in trying to establish any such "rules" among ourselves. A lot of confusion indeed - what a cobbler would love to see as that is their work-description.

Also the idea of making a vote on whom TB should go for - and the requirement of total consent that kind of arrangement needs to work - would mean hours and hours on focusing only on a) the suggestion, and b) on who the BW is - thus nicely blocking all the reasonable talk about the wolves which should be our top priority; for the time being (see what people have said about how hard it is to pin down a lone baddie with no ties to anyone).


So even if one can argue for the procedures Aganzir has made, they both require more or less common consent and would thus require more or less all our efforts. Meanwhile the wolves can just entertain themselves and take sides as they see fit because it's not talking about people but procedures. So Days wasted.


EDIT: X'd with Eomer, Boro and Volo

[wilwarin538]

One more question for the ModGod about the Barrow Wight.

Since he needs to be the last one standing, I'm just trying to figure out how that's possible. Like if he's left standing with a wolf and an ordo, and then they lynch the wolf, well it would be the BW and an ordo left and that's not him being the last standing, so does he win along with the village? Or if the ordo is lynched than it's the BW and the wolf left standing, so that's not him winning either, so how can he be alone at the end? Unless he just has to survive the whole game?

Ah but they will. The ordo gets a PM that says she was stunned (see the rules). That's why telling it to the rest of us does no more than eliminate a potential BW, thus making it easier for Tom & us to find her.

I missed that. Still though, it would be very hard to be sure the person is even telling the truth, and what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed? Then the BW could just say he was the one who was blocked, no one would be around to refute it, and then Tom would never go for him. It just sounds like so many things could go crazy here.

x'ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

It just sounds like so many things could go crazy here.Exactly. A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her? A non-stunned innocent trying to save the Day says she was stunned - what do we learn from there? And what is the one who then possibly counter-reveals? Not to talk of the different settings those "revelations" and their counters would happen, giving new twists to them...

I mean there are so many scenarios my brain hurts already just thinking what they might be... :)

[Volo]

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Good night.

[Volo]

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back. I'll be here for some time, but will (hopefully) make it to bed before DL - loads to do tomorrow.

First of all, I really don't like the votes this far. Day 1, for sure, but these two are ill-reasoned even for Day 1 votes. Eomer votes Agan with Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.Which strikes me as not serious - that sounds as if he wasn't even trying to get it right. The same goes, even to a fuller extent, for Glirdan, whose reason is as follows: Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.Seriously, guys, we can do better than that! Or should we adopt a strategy where everyone just votes randomly because it's Day 1 and nothing matters anyway? I'm not convinced Eomer and/or Glirdan are evil (not that I'm convinced of anything at this point), but a random vote on Day 1 is among the easiest things a baddie can do - a vote that can't really be called into question because it can be covered with "Hey, it was Day 1!"

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this: Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious.Mischievous? It certainly wasn't meant to. I was trying to make sense to myself of how big a threat the cobblers represent, and thought to myself, "What is the worst that could happen?" as well as "What is the best that could happen?" - and from these to get something of an idea of the potential damage the cobblers can do. (Of course the real extreme good scenario would involve wolves killing both cobblers on Nights 2 and 3, but that seemed a bit too unlikely even to me..)


EDIT: x-ed with Vollo

[Aganzir]

what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"?
I can't naturally speak for Volo, but I see the BW as a possible extra cobbler. Maybe it's too rash of me to think she'd choose sides before the result of the game is certain, but she can a) try to stun a wolf, or b) try to stun an innocent. Or she might just have fun and stun whomever she wants, in which case she just brings more chaos into a game with already two cobblers.

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.
Where did that come from? I find it unlikely the BW can get any more information than the rest of us just from her stunning.

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.
Eomer you're stupid! :-p

My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.
Awww Nog! :D This is so nostalgic. You never like anything I say, do you?

the seer and the ranger should reveal? --- but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right.
What are you talking about? I fail to see how telling they were stunned would reveal the seer and the ranger. And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.
However, wilwa brought up a good point:
what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed?
I hadn't even thought of it. :o It basically undermines my point, so yeah.

A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her?
Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality.
That's because it is abnormal. ;)

[Volo]

Mischievous
Thanks for the correction. :)

I got a nastyish vibe from Pitchwife's first post's beginning, but later he felt Ok, Ok, Ok.

:/

Sorry, darling, I would have liked to hear more of your voice before
++Aganzir

Correction: I did hear your voice, and would have liked to think this over, but can't. Won't. vote. randomly. So. die. please.

[Pitchwife]

First impressions up to now:

1. INNOCENT
Mr Unculpable (that's me)

2. LOOKING GOOD
Shasta - his one post so far was fine and very reasonable, I'd like more of the same

3. LOOKING MOSTLY GOOD
Nerwen - mostly very reasonable, except her post about "how to get rid of Tom"; if that was a joke (as I think most probable, it can't really see her thinking that in earnest), it could have done with a smiley for disambiguation.
wilwa - agrees with Lottie on not 'wasting a lynch' on the BW (not good IMO); otherwise pretty reasonable and engaged, no wilwolf chirpyness (good)
Zil - is his usual laid back, reasonable and laconic self; don't trust him out of my eyesight, but more on general principles than because of anything really suspicious as of now.

4. LOOKING STILL SLIGHTLY MORE GOOD THAN BAD
Agan - is all over the place with plans and ideas which I don't find very helpful at all, interspersed with a lot of good points here & there; I wouldn't quite rule out the possibility of her being the cobbler, but mostly, she looks to me up to now more genuine and like an innocent doing some experimental thinking aloud than a baddie.
Nogrod - I agree with him about Agan's plans, not so sure I agree with his conclusions; and this She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal? is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is? On the other hand, that's been the first reasoned suspicion of the Day, bonus points for that
Volo - I can't quite follow all of his thoughts about the BW, but he doesn't look too bad all in all; in any case I haven't played with him before, so bar any blatant wolvery he'll get a pass toDay

5. COULD GO EITHER WAY
Eomer - his behaviour and vote rather remind me of my Eo-packmate from a few games ago; problem is, they also remind me of an innocent Eomer I've played with before, so I don't really have a clue.
Greenie - wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, which isn't necessarily evil per se, except it could be an attempt by a Little Green Wight to distract us from discussing her role with her worst-case scenario of five baddies working in team; good point about wolvish vs wightish knowledge & behaviour in #37, though.
TEW - protests his innocence a bit much indeed (btw, Shasta, it's 'thou dost', not 'you doth';)); first says we should lynch all baddies (good), then flipflops and agrees with Lottie and Glirdan to leave the BW be (not good); some observations on BW, wolf and cobbler behaviour which I don't quite agree with, but don't look devious IMO.

6. LOOKING NOT SO GOOD
Glirdan - first (in chronological order) this:
After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.
'Only' dangerous to the best assets we have vs 3 wolves and 2 cobblers???
Second, I don't really get how we could use Agan's voting plan to 'oust the cobblers'. Confusing.
Third, his vote is plain nonsense (with all the discussion we've had toDay, you can't do better than a random vote?:rolleyes:).

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

8. NO IDEA FOR LACK OF INPUT
Kath - exists and has posted, wow!
Form - hates Day 1, as susual; waiting for more
sally - nothing but early banter; has a cold, therefore excused for now

Conclusions (as of now, liable to be revised on further evidence):

WON'T VOTE FOR
Anybody from group 1-4 and 8

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE FOR
Group 5

MIGHT VOTE FOR
Group 6, i.e. Glirdan

WILL PROBABLY VOTE FOR
Group 7, i.e. Lottie


EDIT: x-ed from #64 down

[satansaloser2005]

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Too many issues with this. Also, the BW is a she, are they? Good to know. ;)

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

Problems.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

How can you people make such long posts already? It's qwight ridiculous. I can't think of any interesting points on rules and theory; all I can think about is lynching Kath. XP

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.


P.S. Eomer, dear, you can't kill BOTH Kath and me--not in the course of one day, anyway. How about you flip a coin for us--I'll be Heads. :D

He can if he's a wolf. Just sayin'.

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

I concur. It would be very like Agan to distract the village with a secondary plan of killing the BW in order to lessen the pressure on the wolves. I could totally see it.

I've not looked hard enough at Greenie (not really at all, in fact) to say anything either way. I'll hope to look at her toMorrow and see what I think of the post.


Okay, kids, I will NOT be back after this post, period. Too many errands to run after work and possibly lots of work to do this afternoon anyway. Thus, a vote.

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

And now I have to go. Sorry for the lack of me. I'm trusting our beloved Boro to text me the lynch result, as I quite want to know what you get up to while I'm gone. Until toMorrow, comrades! :)


EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

[Aganzir]

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo
What BW plan? As far as I know, I had two.

Not that it's probably going to make much of a difference to you, but I thought of the first one (revealing you've been stunned) before I got my role. Too bad I didn't apparently think it through, but there you have it.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.
1. If they're skillful, they have a way of letting her know. Something being unlikely or difficult doesn't make it impossible.
2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

I really don't like sally's vote and her reasons behind it. It's basically just repeating what others have said, and it doesn't even make sense.

[A Little Green]

Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty.

Will try to get to bed now. Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch, Sally and Agan

[wilwarin538]

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).


Ok, I think I understand your point a bit better now (now that it was pointed out that the Ordos are told when they are stunned), it would not actually make it so that the Gifteds are revealing, since everyone can be stunned and all they would have to say is "I was stunned last Night", and it would narrow down the possibilities for who the BW is. But to do that we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do (I don't think cooperating with us is their main objective) and also what I said before, if the BW's target is also the Night kill then he can come forward as the person who was stunned, and there would be no way to check if he's telling the truth, and then we'd cross him off the list of BW suspects and that would be bad. So I see your point, that it could work, but I don't think we should do it, still a lot of things that can go wrong.

Like I said before, I say we let the BW be for now, since he has no connections to anyone it would be really hard to try and pick him out and we could really just end up wasting a lot of time trying to find him, when Wolves should always be our priority. Let's leave it to Tom and hope he gets lucky (or we get lucky), until we have more information on a later Day.

So I don't actually think Agan is all that suspicious, I think she just has a very different way of looking at things, and she wasn't saying the Gifteds should reveal like Nog was saying (and that I initially thought), she seems to just be trying to figure out a way we can get some sort of advantage over this strange new role.

Now Glirdypie looked bad to me before that crazy vote (the randomness of it, not just cause it was for me, though him being my BFF and all, that does hurt :rolleyes: ), I don't get why he thought Agan's idea had anything to do with the Cobblers, perhaps he's a Cobbler getting a bit paranoid? I don't know, he just seems all over the place and I don't really understand what he's talking about, seems very nervous to me.

And it seems that some people are disagreeing with Lottie's idea about leaving the BW alone for Tom to get him. I don't completely understand why, since letting Tom do his job would actually help us save a lynch for someone else, rather than wasting a lynch and wasting Tom's ability. Yes, that same Night the BW could stun someone important, or stun Tom himself, but in that case we'd just lynch the BW the next Day and we wouldn't be that much further behind. Getting the extra lynch oppurtunity seems worth it to me. Of course if this is late in the game with fewer players (when the BW is more likely to stun someone important) than I would say no, we should lynch him immediately, but if the Seer was to come out toMorrow and reveal the BW, it would be a safe time to just leave it to Tom. I don't think Lottie's suggestion is all that bad.

x'ed with Sally, Agan and Greenie

[A Little Green]

A few quick comments before bed.. (Ouch, I'm starting to sound like my dad :D)

Pitch's post I crossed with made me feel loads better about him. (Plus I'm impressed by how many reasoned opinions he can have at this point!) Good I didn't end up voting him. Still keeping an eye open though, we all know how agreeable he can be ;)

I don't like the Agan-wagan (no sorry, wagon, couldn't resist). Eomer's vote like I've said before was bantery; Volo's reasoning I'm not sure I understand at all, and Sally's looks - bandwaggonish. I'm really torn about Agan, for the most part she's been stirring up discussion and coming up with all kinds of plans, could be a bold Aganwolf attempting to lead and manipulate us, could just as well be an innocent Agan trying actively to make strategies that would benefit us. So, in sum, I haven't seen anything from her that would strongly point either way, which is why I don't think she's our worst option toDay (apart from the fact that she hasn't played in a long while), but certainly not the best, either: I think we have better candidates.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa - stop x-posting with me guys, I'm trying to leave! :D

[Inziladun]

At work and about to leave the office for a bit, but a few thoughts first.

The growing bandwagon against Agan makes me uneasy. I wasn't much impressed with her plan to "vote" for the BW, but she herself didn't seem to push it that hard. More like just sounding out ideas. Now, I know she's a joyfully effective Cobbler ;), but it seems funny how so many jumped on after Eomer gave her the first vote (which was not well reasoned at all).

Volo hasn't played in a long time, so it would feel somewhat unsporting to vote for him on Day 1. However, he looks rather shifty to me at this point.

Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

No mention there of thinking Agan is suspicious because of the plan, just a disagreement with it.

Eomer voted Agan, then Nog came out saying his "Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir."

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

So, Volo picks up the suspicion on Agan, though he also says he didn't like Greenie painting the "worst-case scenario".

Then:

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

And a vote for Agan, followed by Sally doing the same thing.

No sir, I don't like it.

x/d with the previous four

[Nogrod]

And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.

A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her?Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW
Aganzir: actually my post you quoted there makes the same point I have bolded from your post: that revealing will only mean confusion and opportunities especially for the cobblers to toy with.


However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.Okay. The bolded parts were those I was thinking when reading through the thread... I can see you are not exactly saying there that the gifteds should reveal... but on the first read it did look like it ("therefore"). But that's the least interesting thing, as I said already before that one could argue for the suggestions you've made.



My main suspicion of you Agan is still this: you've tried it now two times - more or less succesfully - to make us discuss other things than who the wolves are.

Your plan of "let's discuss who the BW is and then let's discuss would everyone vote in a separate vote for the BW so that TB could pick the target, and to check it ther next Day, But aww, what would be the downsides of that kind of a deal be......." didn't quite catch up as only a few commented on it basically saying "let's not waste time on that" (I'll be thinking those people both level-headed and more innocent than not).

But your other plan of whether those stunned by Night should reveal has made it better and we have been talking about it considerably, aka. not trying to find the wolves (like I'm now losing my time answering your plan and what you have said about it :confused: Although I can say I'm not only discussing your plan but showing why I think it looks like having bad intentions behind it.), but finding the result that it would be a total mess...

EDIT: X'd with a host of posting...

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
sally. I read her post and was like, "What. The. Heck?" As I said, she basically repeats what has been said about me, and votes for me because "I can see an evil her doing what she did." She has played with me enough times to know me better. Also, she claims I only want to get rid of the BW. That's utter nonsense - my opinion is that we shouldn't ignore her, it's not the same as making lynching her our primary goal.
Glirdan. Seems kind of easy-going. I don't know what to think of his being the only one to like my BW voting plan (in hindsight I agree it'd probably be too confusing); when most people seem to say it's problematic, it would probably make sense for a baddie to try to back it up. And I agree with Greenie on random votes.
Volo. I still don't understand why he thinks the BW could reveal stuff about gifteds if threatened with a lynch. I'm probably not the right person to say anything about this, but I'm also a bit worried about how much he seems to concentrate on the BW. Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).

INNOCENT
Greenie. I mostly agree with her and she looks normal (as opposed to a statue, I mean, forced - sorry :D).
Pitch. Makes more sense than most others (especially his points about the BW are good) and looks innocentish.
wilwa. I thought her initial reaction to my BW suggestions was really suspicious, but then she brought up the possibility of the stunned having died in the night. Now she looks more innocent than guilty.
EW. Hasn't said enough for me to form a solid opinion, but seems more innocent than guilty.

EITHER
Inzil. I like that he pointed out that a cobbler shouldn't be ignored - but then again, that seems to be the modus operandi after last game. Apart from that, I don't have anything about him.
Lottie. I don't really like her insistence that we shouldn't try to lynch the BW. Pitch has a good point against her, but I haven't seen enough from her (apart from BW talk) to have a real opinion.
Nog. Misunderstands me so badly I'm half tempted to think it's intentional... but then, Nog and I have a history of disagreeing. His main points against me are based on the said misunderstanding, and the rest of his points look exaggerated as if he was just trying to put me in a bad light. However, I'll abstain from further comments till he's back and has explained himself.

The rest haven't said enough for me to form a solid opinion on them. However I'm going to kill Eomer if I end up being lynched. ;)

[Formendacil]

Definitely having troubles motivating myself to call someone guilty toDay--if I may speak ill to the dead, this is what you get, Master Modgod.

The Aganwaggon is mildly appealing, but mostly because it's reacting to a vibrant player on Day 1, rather than inane suspicion. However, it is Day 1, and I can't, in good conscience as an apparently silent player, assist in killing a vibrant player because of vibrancy. I suppose I could always vote Eomer for wanting me dead, but that'd be unsporting...

Bah... any volunteers for lynching--preferably of the lupine, cobbleresque, or wighty variety?

[Pitchwife]

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod
Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)
and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:
[quote]
Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.
*sigh*It's just my way - I like to think things through, regardless of my role, and when I'm innocent, I try to put myself in the wolves' fur and imagine how they would react to a given situation in order to better figure them out. But I do the same when I'm a wolf, and sally once pinned a Pitchwolf based on that, so I see where you're coming from.
If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW
They can't (see the rules). They can only try to get xem lynched.
This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Yeah, he's been making a lot of these puns ('barrowing' for borrowing, etc.). But he enjoys confusing us, and he won't start making sense before Day 2 at the earliest.

I don't really know what to think this incipient Agan bandwagon. Again, it's not impossible that she's a cobbler or a cobblerish-acting wolf (definitely not the BW though, she's been giving far too much thought to how to exterminate xem), but it's far from conclusive in my eyes. OK, this is Day 1 and all that, but I'd still like better evidence.

(x-ed from #70 down)

[Nogrod]

and this is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is?Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!" :smokin:

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them thel ess people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?
Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Bah, you guys keep posting too fast...

[Boromir88]

On the B-W's stunning...

The night narrations will not reveal who was picked by the B-W. Basically a PM goes to the person stunned, saying they are stunned and if they have any night activities they are blocked from doing it. Anyone may say they were picked by the B-W, but I should remind that quoting the PM to "prove it" is forbidden.

And to the question on how the B-W wins...

I originally thought if no more wolves remain the B-W would still just continue stunning at night and then lynch people during the day. However, this may unecessarily drag out the game, so after some Modly deliberation. If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

[A Little Green]

Since I'm really taking after my dad and apparently unable to stop refreshing the page and go to bed, I can answer this:Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)Oh yes, those arguments were flawed - but what people often forget is that "making sense" doesn't equal innocent nor "flawed arguments" wolf. Nog's posting just didn't look wolvish to me because it wasn't one bit careful or calculated. And in addition to that, my empirical research shows that a Nog I disagree with (like this one) is most often an innocent one. (I have a history of always suspecting him and he always turns out innocent - and the once I didn't suspect him because he seemed to make so much sense and be so nice was when he turned out to be a wolf.)


EDIT: x-ed with Nog and honorary Boromod

[Aganzir]

we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do
I can't see how it would harm them. On the contrary - the BW would know they didn't want to make it public, and should she choose to play for us, she might find a way to share that information. Plus giving the impression of cooperating with the village is never a bad idea for a wolf...
It's probably not much use to talk about it anymore, though, because it's as you said - the BW can easily pretend to have been stunned if her pick for the night has died.

could be a bold Aganwolf attempting to lead and manipulate us, could just as well be an innocent Agan trying actively to make strategies that would benefit us.
Trust me, this time it's the latter.

that revealing will only mean confusion and opportunities especially for the cobblers to toy with.
And why should the cobbler want to cause confusion that way and draw attention to herself. Yeah of course there might be some situations, but I think you make it sound much bigger a problem than it really would be. In this game, the cobblers probably want to survive as long as possible.

I can see you are not exactly saying there that the gifteds should reveal...
Seriously Nog. Either you are completely underestimating my intelligence or being dishonest. I would never in my right mind suggest the gifteds to reveal just like that.

you've tried it now two times - more or less succesfully - to make us discuss other things than who the wolves are.
And what would Mr. Nogrod like to discuss on day 1 when barely half the village has posted? This person is a wolf because she posted first, that isn't because she said "I want to vote for a quiet one!"?
I have talked about something else than who the wolves are. So what? If we want to discuss the freaking rules (and I wanted), what's a better time for that than day 1? What's the issue? See, now you're making me talk of irrelevant (ie. something else than who's a wolf) things more and more, the next thing you're probably going to throw it back in my face: "She isn't talking of wolves lynch her!!!"

we have been talking about it considerably, aka. not trying to find the wolves (like I'm now losing my time answering your plan and what you have said about it
Well, for that you can only blame yourself, not me.

I really feel like voting Nog at the moment because he looks fairly bad and that's simply not like him. He's totally twisting my words and trying to put me in a bad light.

[Nogrod]

If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

So we need to lynch four baddies - in a village of sixteen losing more or less one per Night anyway? Great...

[Aganzir]

Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"
It is extremely unlikely the BW catches a gifted each night, so I don't see what's the problem.

in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...
So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

[Aganzir]

The votes:
Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan

Thanks guys. :rolleyes:

As for me, I could vote today for sally, Nogrod, Volo (if one of us has to die, I'd much rather it was him :p), maybe Glirdan (if doing that helps me save myself). The people I'm not voting for (unless something very drastic happens) are Greenie, wilwa, EW, Form, Inzil, Pitch.

Now for some tea. :smokin:

[Nogrod]

It is extremely unlikely the BW catches a gifted each night, so I don't see what's the problem.One Night is enough. If everyone is thought of telling and then one Day no one doesn't - the BW has a BINGO. And when people tell, the wolves have a good candidate for consideration ("the BW thought of that as a gifted, let's consider her/him as well more closely").

And I wouldn't like to put our gifteds into that position. If you would, then you probably have evil intentions. Or you don't think clearly (which I doubt as I do know you're an intelligent person).


Anyway. It's getting late and I'm done with this discussion. I need to take a look back on others and will not be derailed by cobblerish second questions. And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

For I do agree this lazyness on behalf of most of the village is just plain shameful and I could actually vote fex. Glirdan just on the basis of pure annoyance... *random vote, please*

EDIT: X'd with Agan

[wilwarin538]

Yowiebowiedavidglowie!
1. Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party. Instead, the Wolves.
2. The BW needs to be the last wight standing, so it is in xis favour to keep at least one Wolf alive, for the game to progress faster. Now if(when) we manage to lynch two Wolves, BW will be quite the Cobbler, though not as self-sacrificing as one. At that point especially it would be beneficial not to have xim reveal what xe knows openly.

First, I don't understand why you think the BW will get any information from who he's stunned. Second, why on earth would he reveal himself? The village could then lynch him, or Tom could then kill him, he would never do that, even if he was being lynched.

Just noticed this:

I originally thought if no more wolves remain the B-W would still just continue stunning at night and then lynch people during the day. However, this may unecessarily drag out the game, so after some Modly deliberation. If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

Thanks. That clears that up. So basically the BW could totally be on our side right now. He can help get rid of the wolvies and then he will get his magic killing powers, which he probably would really like to have. So right now he is on our side in the sense that he also wants the wolves dead, but once that's accomplished he'll want to kill everyone.

x'ed with Agan x 2 and Nog

[wilwarin538]

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

Can't happen, he needs to be alone at the end, which means no more wolves. Once the wolves are gone he can slowly pick off the remaining innocents (and I guess the Cobblers would be innocents at that point, if the wolves are gone, or would they start helping the BW?)

Oh, and another question, if the wolves were to kill Barliman the same Night that BW chooses Barliman, does that mean the wolves still get a kill the following Night?

[Boromir88]

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

Negative. B-W has to be the last one left. Anything short of that and it would consider its purpose a failure.

I have realized the mistake in the numbers though. Since the B-W is not counted in either the baddie nor innocent tally, but can still vote. A village with 1 wolf + 1 innocent + the Barrow-wight, the remaining wolf could still get lynched. If the innocent or B-W is lynched the wolves win. If the wolf is lynched the B-W wins. The remaining innocent is basically screwed but in the position to decide which baddie wins? *shrug*

So adendum to the wolves winning condition. If the Barrow-wight is still alive, the wolves win if the number of innocents is 1 less than their own. If the Barrow-wight is gone, the wolves win if the number of innocents is equal (or less) than their own.

How come no one pointed these holes out before we started! You had a week, you're forcing me into snap decisions! :p

[Pitchwife]

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"
Yes, but the BW doesn't know who the gifted's are, they can only guess, just like the wolves; and like the wolves, they can be lucky and hit the nail on the head, but (speaking from personal experience) just as often or more often they'll be as much groping in the dark as the ordos. As I've said, there's a lot of problems with Agan's plan, but that's not one of them.
(Unless, say, the narration should happen to mention that e.g. the Seer's dream was blocked by the BW. In this case, the Seer obviously shouldn't say anything about being stunned, and any innocent worth a pinch of salt should know better than say they weren't and help the wolves finding the Seer by default.)
About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them the less people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...
Yes, yes, and yes. I think I said as much in fewer words already.

2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?
Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?
Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it. Hmmm...
Someone, I think wilwa?, has raised the question what would happen if the sole survivors are BW + a lone wolf or BW + a lone innocent. BW can't kill the wolf, BW can't kill the innocent; wolf can't kill BW, innocent can't lynch BW*, so I guess both of these scenarios would be considered a draw. What would happen if the last survivors are BW and Tom? Tom could kill BW -> village victory; unless BW stuns him, but then Tom will get xem the next Night - xe can't stun the same person two Nights in a row, can xe?
*(or wait - actually, if BW and lone innocent vote for each other, there'll be a coin-flip, so we might still get lucky!)
Anyway, there's no way the BW can win with either the wolves or the village.

(x-ed with the mod: Oops!:eek: Adjust what I said about endgame scenarios accordingly.:confused:)

EDIT: also x-ed with #81 down

[Kath]

Well thanks so much Eomer for that kind greeting. Let's all suspect him now for saying he was going to kill me and Form but then going after Agan! That's suspicious right? :D

Can someone throw a vote count at me? I have skimmed not read and that's going to stay the same really. So I'd like to know who's for the gallows and have a better look at them.

Ah and so I make no unfortunate errors ... Pitchwife - male or female?

[Aganzir]

Pitch guess what? I'm drinking mate. :cool: :p

And when people tell, the wolves have a good candidate for consideration ("the BW thought of that as a gifted, let's consider her/him as well more closely").
I still disagree with this. Who said the BW will only try to stun the gifteds? How about trying to find Ferny, or even a wolf to make things more difficult for them? You misunderstood what I originally meant, fine, why do you have to keep implying things that weren't there? I already realised it was a bad idea, thanks to wilwa.

And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.
Ah but I am. Or doesn't your behaviour count as suspicious by your standards?

Okay thanks Boro.

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it.
I was under the impression the BW only needed to survive till the end - I didn't apparently interpret "last man standing" quite so literally. :rolleyes: But yeah this makes things clearer.

edit: xed with Kath - I provided a tally in #85.

[wilwarin538]

It just hit me that there's only an hour left to the Day, how did that happen? It seems to be coming at us way too fast.

So I need to vote, cause my family is about to sit down for a nice supper and then I have to go out. So I'm going to go for:

++ Glirdan

99% of the reason I'm voting him is because he makes no sense to me, he seems more jumpy and nervous than usual, the way he was trying to take Agan's idea and make it into something regarding Cobblers, but never really explaining how the heck that would work, and I just am not getting good vibes from him at all. The other 1% is out of spite for him voting me.

x'ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Okay, sally doesn't look so bad anymore (apart from the fact that she didn't really come up with anything of her own)... It's funny how much more sense everybody seems to make now that I know the wolves & the BW can't win together. :rolleyes: Way to go me.

However, Volo & Glirdan don't look any better and neither does Nog. I'm the least certain of Glirdy, but I might end up voting for him.

Also, Pitch - if I don't get something, it has nothing to do with my allegiance. I don't pretend confusion about the rules to make myself look better, I find it unsportsmanlike.

[Kath]

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2

Thanks Agan, missed that as I went through. I added wilwa's vote on. Our Canadians are voting against each other. Interesting?

[Formendacil]

The votes:
Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here and reading, for the end of the day (luckily enough!) I have to read page 2, but will be here soonish.

[Nogrod]

So, I've been skimming the thread through and here are a few points I was able to make from it.


Lottie: Here I agree with wilwa; she was thinking about a scenario that would have given us an extra-lynch. That I would call rather good. So those easily juymping on her look more suspicious to me than her.

Sally seems to be trying this time. She's not only dealing cookies and talking random. So should I be suspicious of her? I am.

Glirdan made a totally freaky vote, even underlining the randomness of it. I've been a wolf with him two times lately and I can say it's pure horror (sorry Glirdy, but you really made me nervous those times). He's not too composed this time either and could indeed be a wolf once again (third time from late summer?). My only problem with lynching him would be - with the odds of him being a wolf once again - that he's oftentimes also the "easy victim" for lynch, because of the way he plays.


Adding this:

Eomer & Form: the veterans making their worst act and more or less refusing to play thinking they're granted to get to D2 anyway...

Reminding you about what Greenie said: it's not just the bad vote or not saying anything as such, but the fact that a wolf can hide in it the next Day just saying “oh, that was just D1, you know, just random, you can’t suspect me from it!”. And even if we all know better, we tend to want to vote rather someone we have even the slightest "real suspicion" based on what people said about other people (however many times we have been proven wrong with our hunches) than going with a random voter / talker.

*I so miss those days when non-players were lynched immediately*

Anyway, I seem to get under their spell and would be very reluctant to vote either just because it has been such a long time they have been around. You guys show you're worth skipping D1! And if one of you is a baddie I don't care how long a break you take in WW the next time, but come back and play like that I'll vote for you, on D1. And will heavily urge others to do likewise.


Heh, just saw Form's vote... well, not so bad... there's a minuscule amount of reasoning there... like a nanomillimeter of involvement. Should I call that encouraging? :rolleyes:

[Aganzir]

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2

Left: Agan, Zil, Kath, Lottie, Nerwen, Nogrod, Pitch, Shasta, EW

Is anyone else considering Nog or Volo?

[Inziladun]

*slides into chair*

DL happens to be at the exact time my work shift ends, and there's some stuff I need to get done before then.

Looks like a battle of the bandwagons at this point. Three for Agan, two apiece for Glirdy and Wilwa.

The Agan train still looks odd to me. She may be a baddie laughing her head off, but I can't get behind her lynch now.

Wilwa's done nothing to raise hackles.

I'd really be tempted to vote for Volo, but it seems wrong to do so when he hasn't played in so long. I'm such a softie, I know. :rolleyes:

Eomer could be a possibility for getting the push against Agan started. I think Volo looks worse than he does, though.

x/d with the last three

[Aganzir]

Nog's last post makes considerably more sense than his earlier ones. I'm a bit torn about him at the moment - on the one hand, the way he treated me is freaking suspicious; on the other hand, he's also being a rational (and amusing) Nog. I might be tempted to give him a pass for today... but then, I'm all too aware of how smart a baddie he can be. Grr I'm confused.

[Boromir88]

30 minutes left. :D

[Pitchwife]

Ah, crap, now my head is swimming already. I should really know better than to indulge in Barley's brew at a time like this.
Anyway -

we have been talking about it considerably, aka. not trying to find the wolves (like I'm now losing my time answering your plan and what you have said about it
Well, for that you can only blame yourself, not me.
Not really. Think again, and look at all you've said.

Update to my list (see #68):
- Moving wilwa from 3 to 2. She really looks like a reasonable innocent to me.
- On further consideration, same for Nerwen. I really don't think her remark about an evil Tom was serious.
- (I feel inclined to include Zil here, only I've learned the hard way that it won't do to trust him too much, however innocent he seems.:p)
- Moving Greenie from 5 to 4 - not because she dropped her suspicion of me (which I think wasn't badly reasoned), but because her last posts look more and more genuine to me.

On other matters, I note wilwa's objections to what I've said about Lottie, and I'm a bit concerned I may have fallen into the very trap I tried to caution against, i.e. thinking too much about the BW (and how the wolves would deal with xem) and too little about finding the wolves themselves. So if anybody finds any holes in my reasoning, for Eru's sake point them out, please.

(Kath - male, last time I checked;). However, you've heard my voice on Skype, so why pretend confusion???)

(x-ed with I don't know how many)

[Nogrod]

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

[Aganzir]

She may be a baddie laughing her head off, but I can't get behind her lynch now.
Trust me Inzil, if I was a baddie I totally wouldn't be laughing.

I'd really be tempted to vote for Volo, but it seems wrong to do so when he hasn't played in so long. I'm such a softie, I know.
It's the same with me, but I at least have the excuse of his vote for me. And he tends to be a bit eccentric sometimes.

Eomer could be a possibility for getting the push against Agan started. I think Volo looks worse than he does, though.
I could probably vote for him too. It would combine revenge and voting for a (thus far) non-substantial player nicely. Okay well I'm not revenge-voting per se, but I know he voted for an innocent which makes his vote either misguided or evil (or random, but you know what I mean :rolleyes:).

[Aganzir]

Not really. Think again, and look at all you've said.
Excluding misunderstandings on both sides, I think Nog was pushing it a lot farther than necessary. I realised there were problems with my suggestion and said it aloud, but he kept pointing out stuff and making me look like I was trying to distract everyone on purpose.

[Kath]

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much. :p

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA

Random aside: Ooh Pitch have I? When was that? Was it a reading or something?

[Loslote]

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

What? No. Just, no. If we think we have TBW, don't lynch him right away. Let TB, whose job it is to kill xem, kill xem. If he doesn't for some reason, lynch him the next Day, but you will notice how we get an extra lynch and are one baddie down this way.

Lottie. I don't really like her insistence that we shouldn't try to lynch the BW. Pitch has a good point against her, but I haven't seen enough from her (apart from BW talk) to have a real opinion.

Insistance? Really? I was around at the very beginning of the Day. I haven't had time to really insist anything! You should remember what my insisting looks like. This isn't it. ;)

Also: so, so sorry I'm so late. For some reason I was thinking DL was an hour later. :o

Brief list: I feel good about Nog, Glirdy, and Vanilwuffin. I feel not-so-good about Agan and Pitchie, but mostly just because they've been silly about TBW. Also Volo, but I've never played with him, so...meh. :rolleyes:

EDIT: xed since Pitchie

[Pitchwife]

Let me just say Form's vote was crap. Lynch one of the players who've made most sense toDay, really?:rolleyes: At best, it was uninFormed.:p

I see no urgent reason to lynch Nog or Volo yet, I'm torn about Agan but I think I like her response to suspicion and would like to keep her around, and I'm having second thoughts about Lottie thanks to wilwa (plus she's not around to explain herself). So falling back on my second-best option
++Glirdan

EDIT: x-ed #105 down

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Done with page 2, and figured I should post as it's getting near deadline.


I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.

What on earth? There's no incentive for the Barrow-Wight to play for us at all, because we cannot win until the Barrow-Wight has been ousted - therefore classifying the Barrow-Wight as even "possibly" helpful makes no sense at all. I'm not sure who looks worse for bringing this point up at all - Inzil (who brought it up in the first place) or Agan (who took it and ran with it).

OK, to business. As for the cobblers, we've had this discussion any number of times, and the big problem is, as always, that it's not so easy to tell cobblerish evil from wolvish evil. TEW has a point that they would very likely prefer not to be lynched (or Night-killed*, for that matter) before they've had a chance to communicate, but then again, I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player. So the long and short of it is, if it looks suspicious, lynch it and we'll find out what it was.
Long, long post to say exactly what others have already said. I don't trust it, I don't.

Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night,
Don't Ordos still get a PM saying "you are stunned"? I could have sworn that was in the rules somewhere... Oh, Agan has already mentioned this. Nevermind then.

I was looking at this and I do like this plan. My only issue with it is, even the TBW is totally playing for himself, the Wolves might find a way of using it to their advantage. But on the flip side of that coin, there stands the chance that we could catch a Wolf trying to do just that.
How, precisely? Tom Bombadil looking for the BW has nothing to do with the Wolves, as far as I can tell, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

I'm not saying the BW should be our priority and we need to worry about her more than about the wolves & cobblers, what I'm saying is that we shouldn't forget and ignore her just because she might choose to side with us
And again, why would the BW side with us when they know we want them gone (and have to get them gone in order to win)?

I was trying to figure out if there was anyway that we could use your voting plan to try help us oust the Cobblers
Yes, but I notice you have yet to say 'how', even if you've since dropped this 'plan'.

The hunches won't be much more educated than a basic Ordo's, but the ability to stun might give more insight, nothing certain, of course, but nevertheless, if we could kill a Cobbler quietly during the Night, it would surely be an advantage.
Quite a lot of people talking about 'might' with nothing to back them up. And what's this about 'we'? As far as I know, innocents don't kill anything "quietly during the Night".

I really don't like sally's vote and her reasons behind it. It's basically just repeating what others have said, and it doesn't even make sense.
I'm pulling a Lottie here and saying that people saying other people's votes for them "don't make sense" reeks of baddie-ism. But then again it is Agan, who's evil even when she's not. ;)

[Nogrod]

Excluding misunderstandings on both sides, I think Nog was pushing it a lot farther than necessary. I realised there were problems with my suggestion and said it aloud, but he kept pointing out stuff and making me look like I was trying to distract everyone on purpose.Aren't you now playing yourself a bit better than you are Aganzir? That "revealing the gifteds" stuff was hastily made by me (I did get carried away with my realisation you had to be the cobbler), but I still would hate a kind of universal deal that those stunned should reveal themselves as for a gifted that would be a really tight spot - and not good for us. (Argued that earlier)

But I still think you tried to divert our discussion into those "grandiose-plans" which would have required everyone's consent - and if they had gotten just a bit more air under their wings we would have used the whole Day into them. And that would have been counter-productive indeed.

It's D1 and all that and we need to discuss something, but not on a grand plan (well, two of them) requiring everyone's acceptance and consent which you know very well we will never reach!!!

[Aganzir]

If we think we have TBW, don't lynch him right away. Let TB, whose job it is to kill xem, kill xem. If he doesn't for some reason, lynch him the next Day
I still don't think it's quite that simple, but I won't start arguing about it 15 minutes before the deadline.

I haven't had time to really insist anything! You should remember what my insisting looks like. This isn't it.
Hahaha that's true! :D Yeah maybe insistence was a bit too strong a word.

I don't know what to think of the fact that I disagree with Lottie on almost everyone.

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2
Kath - wilwa 3
Pitch - Glirdan 3

Left: Agan, Zil, Lottie, Nerwen, Nogrod, Shasta, EW

[Boromir88]

10 minutes remaining. Final stretch! :D

[Inziladun]

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much. :p

I also have a tendency to be wary of anyone in this game who says "trust me". ;)

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Well, she did somewhat explain it, I think. And he also voted her for what he said was no reason at all.

Ok. Fine.

For lack of other options:

++Glirdan

I can't bring myself to vote Volo toDay, and Glirdan has the random vote for Wilwa and something of a nervy edge to his posts.

x/d with the last four

[Aganzir]

And again, why would the BW side with us when they know we want them gone (and have to get them gone in order to win)?
I misunderstood the conditions for her winning. You can basically ignore those posts...

But then again it is Agan, who's evil even when she's not.
:cool:

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2
Kath - wilwa 3
Pitch - Glirdan 3
Zil - Glirdan 4

Left: Agan, Lottie, Nerwen, Nogrod, Shasta, EW

[Loslote]

Three way tie, and I'm not particularly pleased with any of the possibilities. :( I will vote Agan to save Vanilwuffin and Glirdy, if I have to, simply because I think they're innocent (as far as you can be sure of anyone on Day 1) and I don't trust Agan. But I don't really suspect Agan, either, so I'd prefer not to lynch her, either...not-so-very-lovely.

EDIT: xed with Zil and Agan

[Aganzir]

Shasta any idea who you're going to vote for?

And Nerwen & EW too, if they for some reason happen to be here...?

[Nogrod]

If Agan is the cobbler - as I think she is - then this will tell us a lot toMorrow.

So wilwa and Pitchie are wolves together?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta any idea who you're going to vote for?

And Nerwen & EW too, if they for some reason happen to be here...?

Honestly I'm having a tough time deciding between you and Glirdan. You, my dear, have said some things that just raise my hackles, but Glirdan has said several things that make me think he was trying to appear 'useful', but then didn't back them up (at least to my knowledge). I have three minutes to think, though, thank goodness! :rolleyes:

[Aganzir]

++Glirdan

I find him suspicious enough, and I'd rather not die myself.

[Loslote]

So wilwa and Pitchie are wolves together?

I don't think Vanilwuffin is a wolf at all, but I wouldn't put it past Pitchie to be one.

EDIT: xed since Nog

[The Elf-warrior]

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

[Loslote]

++Agan

As I said, more to try and keep a Glirdy-lynch from happening than trying to lynch Agan herself. Sorry, Agan.

[Nogrod]

++ Aganzir

[Pitchwife]

But then again
*ahem!*;)

Kath - what??? Seriously? (And yes, it was a reading, but never mind.)

EDIT: x-ed with #115 ff.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Glirdan

More evidence, as opposed to a 'feeling' with Agan.

[Nogrod]

I actually write this like ten minutes before the DL just to able to send it in time. Some of it has been said already and some might be redundant by now. But whatever.

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Click me. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7479961)

[Boromir88]

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf

'Tis now Night 2. Everyone who has things to do...go. :D

[Boromir88]

The wolves ferociously debated through the night, throwing around several names of folk they would love to take a bite out of tonight. "Are we agreed then on this one?" asked the Alpha.

"Agreed" chimed the other two.

The three wolves snuck into the room of their intended victim. At first, they looked apprehensive, hoping there would be no one else in the room to stop their feast. The Ranger was not to be found and the wolves smirked as they closed in for the easy kill.

The Alpha approached the lump of a form underneath the covers and said "Be ready to dine on the finest meat tonight fellas." The other two waited in eager anticipation. The wolf removed the covers. But Lo! Behold! No fresh flesh was there, it was just a pile o' bones.

The wolves stood around confused and angered as their appetites were still unsatisfied. "We could just gnaw on them?" One wolf suggested "There still might be some flavor on them."

"Gnaw! Are you serious? No. We have no idea where those bones have been."

"But I'm hunnnngrryyy" whined the third.

"I'll eat you, then neither of us will be hungry if you don't quit that whining." snarled the Alpha.

Then as the wolves looked like they were about to tear into eachother, it got even darker and a bone chilling cold swept over the entire room. They turned and the door, which was previously closed, creaked open. But there was no one standing at the entrance. "There!" shouted one of the wolves pointing at the floor. It was a ghoulish, dim green hand crawling! Just a hand, crawling across the floor.

The Alpha tried to smack the ghastly hand with its paw, but the hand jumped out of the way. Then a chilled wind rushed passed the wolves. "Muahahaha" laughed a villanous voice from behind. The wolves turned back to the bed, to see what was at first just a pile of bones, now into an animated form. They first slowly began backing away, but when the dark figure moved towards the pack, they bolted out the door and slammed it shut behind them.

"What was that!?" cried one of the wolves.

"Don't worry mates." sneered the Alpha. "Whatever it is, we'll get it eventually. We'll show that creature who these common folk of this town should fear the most. Come! We have work to do. Everyone should be waking soon."

But as the Alpha said that, none of the three looked too convinced. Since the dark figure within the room let out another terrible laugh that turned their blood cold. There may just be another dark power in Bree, more horrible than the wolves.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf
Night 2: No death!

'Tis now Day 2. Talking commence.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Obviously, the best course of action would be for the wolves to come forward with who they attacked last night. :Merisu:

[wilwarin538]

So the wolvies went for the Barrow Wight. That's extremely lucky for us.

Now we just need to try and figure out who would have been a likely target last Night and we'll be able to narrow down our BW suspects.

I would guess it was maybe someone more quiet, a trailess kill, the first Night is really the only time to be able to do that since many people haven't posted much. But they may have spotted what they thought was a Seer hint, but that is way harder for us to figure out.

But first I need to catch up on what happened after I left yesterDay, and get some food and I should be on in the next couple of hours.

edit: x'ed with Shasta, haha, actually that's not a completely awful idea. If one of the wolves is in great danger of being lynched, like where it's obvious they will definitely be the one to go, they may as well say who the BW is, that way they can help us kill him (which would also help their surviving mates since the BW is a threat to them too). They will have nothing to lose at that point, and they'll be able to still help their team even though they're dead (since the wolves can't kill the BW on their own, they need our help to do that).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

actually that's not a completely awful idea.

I am shocked, appalled, and hurt at the attitude towards my ideas that this comment implies. :( But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit in this post right at DL -

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

More thoughts on Assumption 1 as I think of them. I should be back in a few hours.

[Nogrod]

Obviously, the best course of action would be for the wolves to come forward with who they attacked last night. :Merisu:I'm afraid that depends on how valuable they think the BW's "help" to them is - and if TBW wishes to eliminate the ranger in the first place (how'd you do that even if you wished for it is another question) - and that in turn depends on how well they will succeed themselves. If we get one wolf like toDay and another one is getting lots of suspicion as well they might try to turn our eyes towards the BW...

But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicitNow please, what kind of a "seer" would that make me? If there is even one reasonable wolf in the pack, they'd know better than to think me the seer. What comes to the assumption you're making through implication - that I'm the BW who tried to pose as the seer, just think of this: what would the real seer do if she noticed someone posing as the seer? What do you think? "Why bother checking that guy out who impersonates me..." :rolleyes: Really? So whoever the BW is s/he would do really bad trying to look like a seer as there is a real one to check that out - and to feel very uncomfortable with it. Especially when it's only the village who can get rid of her/him...

So hurray for the Night with no kill but dratted it was not a ranger-save, when we'd (well the ranger would) know something. I'm not too optimistic about the wolves' willingness to throw the BW under the bus in any near future unless we can really pressure them.

On another news... well it's too late and I'm off to bed. See you later. We have a host of things to discuss toDay.

[Inziladun]

Well, not a bad start at all. No wolf or Wight with YesterDay's lynch, but a Cobbler is the next best thing. And no kill last Night, marking two setbacks for the pack right out of the gate.

But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit in this post right at DL-

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

Trying to backtrack wolf-targets on Day 1 is tricky, but I guess Nog is a possibility. There was also this from him:

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

Then again, Nog voted for Agan, and it wasn't a situation where Agan was given a pass by everyone except Nog. So I'm not sure why his suspicion and vote for her would necessarily stand out from others.

x/d with Nog

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So I'm not sure why his suspicion and vote for her would necessarily stand out from others.

Simple. Because of how explicit it was, Inzil. I believe I just said that. :p

And Nog, haven't there been plenty of games where ordos have posed as the Seer in order to take a hit for said Seer? I know I myself have done it at least once (and it worked :p), so surely you aren't saying that the only person that would pose as the Seer besides the Seer themselves is the BW, are you?

[Inziladun]

Simple. Because of how explicit it was, Inzil. I believe I just said that. :p

Well, I'd say this:

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

is pretty explicit as well. Why would they believe Nog over that if Agan was a wolf, especially when Nog also said:

If Agan is the cobbler - as I think she is - then this will tell us a lot toMorrow.

So wilwa and Pitchie are wolves together?

If Aganwolf sees that, why should she worry about Nog being the Seer?

[Loslote]

I wouldn't think Nog would be the Night-kill (and TBW). My guess would be someone quieter, like Form, Elfie, or Kath, or who voted earlier, like Eomer or Volo. Of those, Eomer makes the most sense to me, with Form and Elfie right behind him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I'd say this:



is pretty explicit as well. Why would they believe Nog over that if Agan was a wolf, especially when Nog also said:



If Aganwolf sees that, why should she worry about Nog being the Seer?

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length. My question to you, Inzil, is why you seem so intent on defending Nogrod? I was only following an assumption, yet you seem to be donning your armor for battle. :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR (1)

Shoddy reasoning. An easy vote for a wolf to have made, but at the same time I'd at least expect a wolf to qualify it with a "gut feeling", or something like it.


I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random. (1)

Cobbler Harry Glirdyleaf votes Wilwa. All that tells us is that he didn't consider her a wolf.


I got a nastyish vibe from Pitchwife's first post's beginning, but later he felt Ok, Ok, Ok.



Sorry, darling, I would have liked to hear more of your voice before
++Aganzir

Correction: I did hear your voice, and would have liked to think this over, but can't. Won't. vote. randomly. So. die. please.

I pointed out yesterDay why I didn't like the way Volo latched onto going after Agan. (2)


++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil. (3)

Hm. Sally was very scarce Day 1, so it's hard to say if her intentions there were opportunistic or not.


Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty. (1)

I voted for Glirdan myself for much the same reason, so this doesn't strike me as evil.

It just hit me that there's only an hour left to the Day, how did that happen? It seems to be coming at us way too fast.

So I need to vote, cause my family is about to sit down for a nice supper and then I have to go out. So I'm going to go for:

++ Glirdan

99% of the reason I'm voting him is because he makes no sense to me, he seems more jumpy and nervous than usual, the way he was trying to take Agan's idea and make it into something regarding Cobblers, but never really explaining how the heck that would work, and I just am not getting good vibes from him at all. The other 1% is out of spite for him voting me. (2)

Again, I pretty much agreed about Glirdan, so I can't find fault here.

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin (2)

My sole observation is that I'd wonder why "entertaining" trumps "useful" when considering a lynch.

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious.++WILWA (3)

I didn't understand how Kath could say Wilwa had no reasoning for suspecting Glirdan. Wilwa's reasoning for her vote looked better than Kath's at any rate.

Let me just say Form's vote was crap. Lynch one of the players who've made most sense toDay, really?:rolleyes: At best, it was uninFormed.:p

I see no urgent reason to lynch Nog or Volo yet, I'm torn about Agan but I think I like her response to suspicion and would like to keep her around, and I'm having second thoughts about Lottie thanks to wilwa (plus she's not around to explain herself). So falling back on my second-best option
++Glirdan (3)

Doesn't look bad to me.

I also have a tendency to be wary of anyone in this game who says "trust me". ;)



Well, she did somewhat explain it, I think. And he also voted her for what he said was no reason at all.

Ok. Fine.

For lack of other options:

++Glirdan

I can't bring myself to vote Volo toDay, and Glirdan has the random vote for Wilwa and something of a nervy edge to his posts. (4)

++Glirdan

I find him suspicious enough, and I'd rather not die myself.

Self-preservation is at least understandable. (5)

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

I can't fault the suspicion on Volo, since I'd already thought him shifty. I'm not sure about the "slip", but it did look strange. (1)

++Agan

As I said, more to try and keep a Glirdy-lynch from happening than trying to lynch Agan herself. Sorry, Agan. (4)

I don't remember just now why Lottie didn't want Glirdan lynched.

++ Aganzir

At least Nog's was certainly not a surprise. Consistent. (5)

++Glirdan

More evidence, as opposed to a 'feeling' with Agan. (6)

Nerwen did not vote.

x/d with Lottie and Shasta

[Inziladun]

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length.

I'd think that to a wolf's eyes someone voting for one of their own with little reason behind it would be a more inviting Seer prospect than one who puts effort into making a case, at least on Day 1.

My question to you, Inzil, is why you seem so intent on defending Nogrod? I was only following an assumption, yet you seem to be donning your armor for battle. :rolleyes:

I'm not "defending Nogrod". I'm disagreeing that he was necessarily the likely kill choice. Why are you unwilling to explore other options?

[Nerwen]

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length.

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.

[Loslote]

I don't remember just now why Lottie didn't want Glirdan lynched.

I didn't think he was a wolf. He did not strike me as acting particularly like the Glirdwolf I've played with before, so I didn't suspect him. I had a worse feeling about Agan than Glirdy.

[Inziladun]

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

I would think so. With this:

I actually write this like ten minutes before the DL just to able to send it in time. Some of it has been said already and some might be redundant by now. But whatever.

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

Nog not only said he thought Agan was a Cobbler, he singled out Wilwa and Pitch as potential wolves. And he voted for Agan anyway.

And there's this:

Anyway. It's getting late and I'm done with this discussion. I need to take a look back on others and will not be derailed by cobblerish second questions. And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

"If you're innocent Agan"- does that look like "specificity", as outlined by Shasta here?

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

All this is supposed to be evidence on why Nog could have been the wolves' target. I don't see it, and I don't understand why Shasta's pushing this so.

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

Possibly. It's worth looking into.

x/d with Lottie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would think so. With this:



Nog not only said he thought Agan was a Cobbler, he singled out Wilwa and Pitch as potential wolves. And he voted for Agan anyway.

And there's this:



"If you're innocent Agan"- does that look like "specificity", as outlined by Shasta here?



All this is supposed to be evidence on why Nog could have been the wolves' target. I don't see it, and I don't understand why Shasta's pushing this so.



Possibly. It's worth looking into.

x/d with Lottie

1. Nog did not say he "thought" Agan was a cobbler, he said she was one, which struck me as oddly sure and specific, yes. And he said that she was a cobbler after that quote you posted, Inzil.

And as I said once, I'm merely following an assumption - that the wolves thought Nog was the Seer and went after him, exposing a Nog-wight. Assumptions are, obviously, not something to base a case on, so I believe the one tying up discussion and making things into what they aren't is you, Inzil.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.

My light, I see your point - if Agan is a wolf, she'd know that Nog couldn't be the Seer. However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler. The point I made about Agan (and Pitch and Greenie and Wilwa) was just an aside that popped into my head as I perused Nog's post. I think my theory still stands, though, doesn't it?

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Tired!Sally is tired, and needs to sleep so she doesn't continue to have a cold, plus she has to not be all dead and stuff at work. And she doesn't want to waste her 4000th post telling y'all this. She promises she'll be around this weekend.

[Nerwen]

My light, I see your point - if Agan is a wolf, she'd know that Nog couldn't be the Seer. However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler. The point I made about Agan (and Pitch and Greenie and Wilwa) was just an aside that popped into my head as I perused Nog's post. I think my theory still stands, though, doesn't it?
When you put it like that, it makes sense.

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.
Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

When you put it like that, it makes sense.


Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?

As far as I can tell, Eomer didn't say anything of substance (like I said earlier). He voted Agan for talking a lot. He's probably on the lower side of 'likely', regarding that list, but I'd still put him there, myself.

[Loslote]

However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler.

This makes a lot more sense than what I thought you meant.

Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?

He hasn't really said much, plus he could well be a potential Seer candidate. I think he's a likely candidate - but, like I said earlier, I'd suggest looking for wolves toDay and letting TB hunt TBW, given the suggestions we come up with.

EDIT: xed with Shasta and fixed coding

[Shastanis Althreduin]

He hasn't really said much, plus he could well be a potential Seer candidate. I think he's a likely candidate - but, like I said earlier, I'd suggest looking for wolves toDay and letting TB hunt TBW, given the suggestions we come up with.

How are we supposed to come up with suggestions for Tom Bombadil if we shouldn't look for the Barrow-Wight? :rolleyes: You're amusing, Little Lottie.

But really, knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it.

[Loslote]

How are we supposed to come up with suggestions for Tom Bombadil if we shouldn't look for the Barrow-Wight? :rolleyes: You're amusing, Little Lottie.

But really, knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it.

I didn't mean we shouldn't pursue it, I meant we shouldn't make that the focus of our lynch. It is a huge bit of information, and we shouldn't ignore it, but TBW can't actually kill any of us, so I think we should try to lynch a wolf, not TBW. But thanks for thinking I'm amusing. ;)

[The Elf-warrior]

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I probably won't post any more toDay. I have to work past the deadline and I'd better get some sleep. Bye.

[Nerwen]

Thoughts on Nogrod.
It's reasonable that Nogrod is going to defend himself against my king's little theory about him being the BW. Odd, though, that the part of #133 he attacks is not the confusing bit where Shasta seems to be arguing that "Seer" Nog saying Agan was a cobbler would somehow point to her as a wolf, but rather this:

Now please, what kind of a "seer" would that make me? If there is even one reasonable wolf in the pack, they'd know better than to think me the seer. What comes to the assumption you're making through implication - that I'm the BW who tried to pose as the seer, just think of this: what would the real seer do if she noticed someone posing as the seer? What do you think? "Why bother checking that guy out who impersonates me..." :rolleyes: Really? So whoever the BW is s/he would do really bad trying to look like a seer as there is a real one to check that out - and to feel very uncomfortable with it.

That's just plain weird, coming from a veteran like Nogrod, who knows perfectly well that there's a long history of other roles impersonating the Seer. He's arguing for the improbability of something that happens all the time. (Yes, I know Shasta has already drawn attention to this, but really, I think it needs more.)

EDIT:X'd with Elf-warrior.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting theory on Nogrod. Probably worth checking out; all this means is that we let Tom go after him tonight and see what happens. Until then, ignore Nogrod. Agreed? :p

[Nerwen]

Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?
As far as I can tell, Eomer didn't say anything of substance (like I said earlier). He voted Agan for talking a lot. He's probably on the lower side of 'likely', regarding that list, but I'd still put him there, myself
He hasn't really said much, plus he could well be a potential Seer candidate
Which would point to Aganwolf, of course. If she's not a wolf, though, I'm not so sure the wolves would pick Eomer, as he looks quite cobblerish. As does Agan, the person potentially framed by his death. (Unless he supposedly dreamed Agan as a cobbler, cf Shasta's Nogwight theory.)

EDIT:X'd with Eomer; added comment.

[Inziladun]

And as I said once, I'm merely following an assumption - that the wolves thought Nog was the Seer and went after him, exposing a Nog-wight. Assumptions are, obviously, not something to base a case on, so I believe the one tying up discussion and making things into what they aren't is you, Inzil.

It isn't impossible that you're right. What I don't understand is why you seemingly homed in on Nog without apparently looking at anyone else as a potential wolf-target. I looked as though you weren't willing to consider any other possibility.

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

So, which of your Assumptions do you think more likely? That the wolves went after Nog thinking he might be the Seer, or that they wanted a trailless kill?

[A Little Green]

Here for a minute before dashing off to a meeting - back for another while later on. In other words, I'm really busy today but will do what I can.

My sole observation is that I'd wonder why "entertaining" trumps "useful" when considering a lynch.My thoughts exactly. Actually, I'd love good healthy explanations from both Eomer and Form concerning their votes. Generally I'm disinclined to trust people who don't seem to put an effort into their lynch vote, since for an innocent it is the only way of eventually winning the game. For a wolf it's not that crucial - at least not unless their own or their fellow's life is at stake. (And no, "It was Day 1" does not count as an answer.)
I'd suggest looking for wolves toDay and letting TB hunt TBW, given the suggestions we come up with.
I didn't mean we shouldn't pursue it, I meant we shouldn't make that the focus of our lynch. It is a huge bit of information, and we shouldn't ignore it, but TBW can't actually kill any of us, so I think we should try to lynch a wolf, not TBW.We certainly shouldn't make the BW our focus, but discussing who the wolves might have pursued who could also be the BW can help us to information about the wolves, and that is why it is such a big question.

Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her.

[Volo]

Several comments yesterDay were based on misunderstandings, I hadn't expressed myself clearly enough. I'll open up on this later if I have the chance.

When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf. He seems to be more stressed and high strung in this game than in the games I played with him before. This might be due to completely unrelated reasons, but it feels as if he doesn't have a chance to relax from the game, i.e. he's also playing actively during the Nights. His first post toDay doesn't argue against this feeling. I would have thought him to post more than one things before going to sleep were he not active before the post as well.
Then again, he has not tried to hide his tenseness. A Wolf Nog I'd believe would choose his words better and read others' comments more closely, instead of being so aggressive.
What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.
:rolleyes: Seriously...

I doubt he is the BW. Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces. And there are plenty of such players around here now. Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty. It's not a very strong argument, but it has been used.


I still find Aganzir suspicious. I don't know how much she has been talking about Cobblers in the recent games, but she seemed to react so happily to the notion that people should discuss Cobblers that it seemed, she was happy about it, because it would mean people would talk about her. And knowing Agan, that would certainly entertain her.
Also, what Nog mentioned yesterDay and which I mainly based my vote upon, is that she did put out an unlikely strategy proposition which would require a lot of discussion, both whether to accept the strategy, and after it has been accepted. I'm refering to the open vote for who should TB go after next Night. It would move away attention from the Dayly lynch-vote, which is, much more important. Aganzir, I see as too sensible to put up such a strategy unless doing so on purpose. And she definitely is bold enough to actively try moving the conversation into a foggy direction.


Shasta seems quite Innocent in his posts. The way he writes feels more genuine than when he was a Wolf. It may be due to the fact that he hasn't had the time to inspect the thread and formulate answers, but in any case, it feels less calculative than what he wrote as a Wolf.

[Volo]

I'll try clearing up the misunderstandings briefly.

Agreed that who isn't with us is against us, but what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"? The BW's stunnings may happen to work in favour of one party now or the other next, but xe wins if xe's the sole survivor, so xe wants all of us dead in the long run.
When I wrote that I hadn't realized exactly what you mention here, I thought that the BW wins if either the Innocents or the Wolves win and the BW is still alive. So from the post you are refering to, I have changed my mind, and while the BW can be useful by stunning the last Wolf, it would probably be unintentional.

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.This is a game where certain knowledge is rare. Post-mortem role revelations and the dreams of a dead Seer are of such quality, but not much else. However players are making accusations based on little hunches, glimpses and clues, which are not definite. The BW also plays by these rules, being quite similar to an Ordo. However, xe can stun, which affects xer way of looking at players' roles. The knowledge of someone being stunned will certainly affect the way the BW looks upon xer victim next Day and might notice things others wouldn't necessarily notice. By "mildly eductated hunches" I meant a wider perspective than that of an ordo's.
Related to this was my comment of not angering the BW, which has also been understood in a way I didn't mean it. Based on basic WW psychology I see the following scenario very likely: The BW is suspected for one reason or the other and is very likely or certainly going to be lynched. Xer reaction to this is, probably, wanting revenge to those who caused xer demise, who, in the case of a lynch, are the Innocents (the lynch being the Innocents' way of killing). Xe can revenge by making the game more favourable to the enemies of xer enemies, the Wolves. And this is done by the BW telling on the game thread who xe thinks are the Gifteds - something a Cobbler would do in the similar situation. All in all this is a minor point explained in a long way and this discussion should perhaps be forgotten in favour of using up time for the real game, instead of meta.

Quite a lot of people talking about 'might' with nothing to back them up. And what's this about 'we'? As far as I know, innocents don't kill anything "quietly during the Night".
What I meant by the Innocents killing a Cobbler quietly during the Night was TB ('we') using his power during the Night to get rid of the BW, who is not unlike a Cobbler, which is an advantage to the Innocents. Refer to aforementioned reasons.

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.I assume you refer to the part I quoted. Well, I hope this post clarified enough.

[Formendacil]

So... I have this mysterious sense of deja vu as I write this... I seem to recall having a no-Nightkill-Day-2 before, with the depressing sense that it's almost Day 1 replayed.

It isn't, of course, since we have the vote record from yesterday. However, it lacks the other-sided corroboration provided by a Night Kill (grotesque as that corroboration might be). Obviously, this situation is different than whichever one sticks in my mind, insofar as it is because the BW is in play--in this case, the wolves were foiled not by the Ranger, but by someone whom they can tactfully leave alone to confuse the villagers--and the Gifteds--or towards whom they can help orchestrate a lynch. I feel like this will reveal a lot of information later, but is going to be of limited assistance right now.

I'm pretty much around until the deadline, but I'll be in and out as my interest and other goings-on dictate. I'm *supposed* to be doing homework readings all day...

[wilwarin538]

My light, I see your point - if Agan is a wolf, she'd know that Nog couldn't be the Seer. However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler. The point I made about Agan (and Pitch and Greenie and Wilwa) was just an aside that popped into my head as I perused Nog's post. I think my theory still stands, though, doesn't it?

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

Regarding your first 'Assumption', I don't know why you seem to think that Nog is the only possible person that could have looked Seerish, but honestly I'm weary of pursuing the idea that Seer hints were the reason for their kill, because in trying to figure out who looked Seerish yesterDay, we could draw attention to the actual Seer. So I say we leave that one be.

So we could look at possible trailless kills, but Lottie has a point, this is a good lead but we still don't have a lot of information and if we start making all these assumptions we could get very side tracked with this BW business instead of looking for the wolves. And I don't see how figuring out who the kill was could possibly lead us to the wolves (maybe we could go the other way, when we know who a wolf is we could come back and then try to figure out the kill), so I say we let it be, put it on the list of info we have about the BW, and wait til we have more pieces. Going on about this could be a terrible waste of time, and if we follow the Seer hint track we could uncover the real one, which is bad. Tom could always look more closely at all that and maybe figure out some suspects (any unlikely kill choices are unlikely to be the BW, that's a great way to narrow down), and maybe he'll get lucky.

edit: x'd with Form

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My thoughts exactly. Actually, I'd love good healthy explanations from both Eomer and Form concerning their votes. Generally I'm disinclined to trust people who don't seem to put an effort into their lynch vote, since for an innocent it is the only way of eventually winning the game. For a wolf it's not that crucial - at least not unless their own or their fellow's life is at stake. (And no, "It was Day 1" does not count as an answer.)

Speaking for myself, I was first to vote and there had been no useful discussion. That's how it goes on Day One. I'm afraid that this justifies my vote entirely, despite how much it displeases you. :p

Had I been able to stay later I could have made a more reasonable vote.

Now it's Day Two, and now there is no excuse for a lazy vote, but I can't see how you can criticise my vote yesterday.

Formendacil, on the other hand, simply effuses lycanthropy. ;)

[Inziladun]

When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf. He seems to be more stressed and high strung in this game than in the games I played with him before. This might be due to completely unrelated reasons, but it feels as if he doesn't have a chance to relax from the game, i.e. he's also playing actively during the Nights. His first post toDay doesn't argue against this feeling. I would have thought him to post more than one things before going to sleep were he not active before the post as well.
Then again, he has not tried to hide his tenseness. A Wolf Nog I'd believe would choose his words better and read others' comments more closely, instead of being so aggressive.

The problem is that you didn't seem to find him all that suspicious yesterDay. In fact, you appeared to use his reasoning as a means of rationalising a vote for Agan.

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

If you were thinking Nog to be a wolf, why vote for someone he was casting suspicion on?

I doubt he is the BW. Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces. And there are plenty of such players around here now. Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty. It's not a very strong argument, but it has been used.

Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me.

I still find Aganzir suspicious. I don't know how much she has been talking about Cobblers in the recent games, but she seemed to react so happily to the notion that people should discuss Cobblers that it seemed, she was happy about it, because it would mean people would talk about her. And knowing Agan, that would certainly entertain her.

Talking about Cobblers is not in itself an unusual act for Agan. :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Looking at the votes for Agan and Glirdan. It doesn't surprise me that Agan received so many, because she was talking a lot: it's easy to find something to disagree with in there. Not many votes look to me very 'bandwagonny' - perhaps Volo's and Sally's, but not much.

The wolves blended in very nicely, on Day One.

Not finding a useful interpretation of the voting record so I'll try the Shasta tactic of... Shasta tactic? Shastactic? Yes, I'll try the Shastactic of guessing who the wolves tried and failed to kill.

[Aganzir]

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it.
What exactly makes it difficult to believe an innocent could have misinterpreted the rules?

I'm pulling a Lottie here and saying that people saying other people's votes for them "don't make sense" reeks of baddie-ism.
What doesn't make sense in sally's vote is her attitude, "Agan might do that as a baddie, ergo, she's a baddie."

And then. How come certain people are suddenly all convinced I'm the cobbler and look like they weren't considering any other alternatives? I suggested two things. On day 1, when there had been little serious discussion. The first was an idea I truly believed would help us, the second something that occurred to me and which I thought good to throw out in the open. Has it ever occurred to you that I might have been trying to help instead of distracting us from finding the wolves? Some people find it way too easy to dismiss the latter option. After I'm dead, I'd suggest taking a close look at Nog, and to a lesser extent also Nerwen. It'd be extremely convenient for the wolves or the real Ferny to get someone lynched, her only crime being talking too much.

How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.
She could have. Better get rid of a suspected seer (even if doing so implicates you - you can always argue it was a framing attempt) before they manage to cause any serious damage.

I'm afraid that depends on how valuable they think the BW's "help" to them is --- If we get one wolf like toDay and another one is getting lots of suspicion as well they might try to turn our eyes towards the BW...
What do you mean? That they'll try to make us concentrate on finding the BW rather than a wolf? (I am asking this because to me it would've seemed more logical to replace "our" with "their", but Nog doesn't naturally need to answer my question because I'm obviously just diverting his attention away from the wolves.)
Also, if the wolves & the BW can't win together, I doubt they find her help worth much. They know her identity now which means they can reveal it whenever they wish, so if the BW wants to have a chance to win, I'd assume it's in her interests to try to be nice to the wolves and hope we bandwagon against them when they've already logged out.

If there is even one reasonable wolf in the pack, they'd know better than to think me the seer.
Because you called someone who's not a wolf the cobbler, you can't be the seer?
There's something awfully off about Nog's seer rant (and him in general), and while it might be only because it was late/he was drunk :p, I'm currently toying with the idea that he's our Ferny. That would explain his excessive attack against me yesterday and now his worry about being considered the seer (which, to me, sounds much more like the cobbler's plea "Hey wolves I'm like seriously not the seer, don't eat me!" than the real seer trying to maintain his "dum dee dum I'm not the seer" facade. Just because it would be idiotic of the seer to attack a non-dreamed of person like that.)

I'm not too optimistic about the wolves' willingness to throw the BW under the bus in any near future unless we can really pressure them.
You mean like this: "Hey wolves, the BW is certainly a bigger problem to you than to us, it's in your best interests to step out and tell us who it is (so Tom can take care of them and we can lynch you)!"?
If one of the wolves is under the risk of being lynched, I see no harm for them in revealing the BW. After all, she thwarted their first kill and is their worst rival for the title of the Lord of Night-Time Bree. :Merisu:

An easy vote for a wolf to have made, but at the same time I'd at least expect a wolf to qualify it with a "gut feeling", or something like it.
I seem to remember he did something similar last time I played, and he was a wolf - so I wouldn't put it past him. (Incidentally, it was your game.)

My sole observation is that I'd wonder why "entertaining" trumps "useful" when considering a lynch.
It struck me as something that might be a cobbler hint; "I want useful players out!" Not sure though.

knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it.
As long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they could have attacked. Did they target the seer or a player deemed dangerous, did they want to leave no trails, or did they want to frame someone? When either a wolf or the BW is gone, we can go through the posts and see if the dead wolf seemed to know more about some player/if any player seemed to know more about the dead BW. But before that, I think it's a waste of time to try to draw any conclusions from the fact that the wolves attacked the BW last night, and I don't like how intent Shasta is on doing it.
(I like wilwa for saying about the same things.)

I still find Aganzir suspicious.
Still? As far as I remember, you barely even mentioned me yesterday before voting for me. :Merisu:

I don't know how much she has been talking about Cobblers in the recent games, but she seemed to react so happily to the notion that people should discuss Cobblers that it seemed, she was happy about it, because it would mean people would talk about her.
A lot. Usually it was only me saying "Hey guys, we shouldn't ignore the cobbler, I've won as a wolf because we could keep a known cobbler alive for days!" and then they just ignored me and the wolves won with the cobbler's help. This is the reason for my happiness.

she did put out an unlikely strategy proposition which would require a lot of discussion
I didn't consider it an actual proposition but just an idea, and after Nerwen said (right after I had posted it) that she found it too complicated, I was like "Okay, we're not doing it then." What both you and Nog fail to mention is that I never pushed the idea - so you're only suspecting me for something that might have happened instead of what I actually did.

Aganzir, I see as too sensible to put up such a strategy unless doing so on purpose.
Elaborate what you mean by this.

I was first to vote and there had been no useful discussion.
So you vote for the one who's trying to be useful? Tsk tsk.

Talking about Cobblers is not in itself an unusual act for Agan.
Why the rolleyes? :-p

I'll try the Shasta tactic of... Shasta tactic? Shastactic?
Shasticle's Shastactic. Oh boy, someone is popular.

[Nerwen]

So... I have this mysterious sense of deja vu as I write this... I seem to recall having a no-Nightkill-Day-2 before, with the depressing sense that it's almost Day 1 replayed.
You're upset no-one got killed in the Night? Really?:rolleyes:

if we follow the Seer hint track we could uncover the real one, which is bad
That is a good point. I don't think it worth taking the risk just to catch the BW, but then we might also find a wolf in the process. So I don't know.

How come certain people are suddenly all convinced I'm the cobbler and look like they weren't considering any other alternatives? I suggested two things. On day 1, when there had been little serious discussion. The first was an idea I truly believed would help us, the second something that occurred to me and which I thought good to throw out in the open. Has it ever occurred to you that I might have been trying to help instead of distracting us from finding the wolves? Some people find it way too easy to dismiss the latter option. After I'm dead, I'd suggest taking a close look at Nog, and to a lesser extent also Nerwen. It'd be extremely convenient for the wolves or the real Ferny to get someone lynched, her only crime being talking too much.
Firstly, I never said I was convinced you were Ferny, even if Nogrod did. Secondly, I never said why I thought you might be he– it's partly that you were talking so much, that's true, and that you put forward this weird and I think unworkable plan, but also simply because you talked so much about the cobbler yesterDay. Yeah, I know you always do– but you started off by reminding people of that, then telling Volo again for good measure, and then... it just seemed like you were overplaying it. Which might be the action of a cobbler trying to signal to the wolves, or one of the other baddies trying to be "helpful".

Because of that, and because you also fall into the "most eager BW discussers" group I mentioned earlier, and because of what seems to to be an overreaction by you in this post I've quoted, I'm going to vote

++Aganzir

Which I admit is an easy vote, and at the same time doesn't have any real evidence to back it up. But I can't leave it any later, and unfortunately this has been a pretty quiet Day.

[Nogrod]

Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you.

*throws a gaze at Shasta, Zil & Lottie especially*


Reading through toDay I think I need to make this point once again. I try to be short and compact.

The first interest of the BW is to not get lynched as only the village can out her. So she can't afford being dreamt of and should then take as low profile as possible in regards the seer; she needs to stay alive to the very end, remember? Do you really consider impersonating the seer (which some of you seem to claim I did) is the way to keep the seer away? Honestly...

The second interest of the BW is to have a maximum number of kills happening (due to her hard victory-conditions), so what is the sense of trying to impersonate the seer with the risk of getting it right and thus calling the wolves to meet her during the Night to no kill being made?

One more point, courtesy of Greenie:I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her.Exactly. I have been wondering those inferences - as to whether someone is just too busy trying to come up with someone to suspect.

And anyway, if (and when) Aganzir is a cobbler, the wolves wouldn't know it to be true as they don't know who the cobbler is.

So no, I was not visited last Night - and am not the BW.

I do agree here with Eomer: if Tom thinks what I said doesn't make sense and thus thinks me worth a check, let's meet the coming Night.

And we others could use our Day hunting the wolves. Simple as that.


Okay, a short answer to some of Agan's questions in a separate post - and them I'm off for a while, but will be back for some hopefully succesful wolf-hunting.

[Nogrod]

Nog doesn't naturally need to answer my question because I'm obviously just diverting his attention away from the wolves.)Using my time answering your questions is actually doing just that - and the way you frame it isn't the best possible. But anyway. I try to keep this short - and I think there is some things of general interest in here as well.

I'm afraid that depends on how valuable they think the BW's "help" to them is --- If we get one wolf like toDay and another one is getting lots of suspicion as well they might try to turn our eyes towards the BW...
What do you mean? That they'll try to make us concentrate on finding the BW rather than a wolf? (I am asking this because to me it would've seemed more logical to replace "our" with "their" I have been wondering some ideas shared concerning this scenario. There is no way a wolf would just come forth and say: "hey guys, I actually know that X is the BW" - unless just getting lynched. But like I said, they'd consider turning our attention to the BW if they felt in trouble - not probably saying "let's talk about the BW for a change", but more like trying to bring that person into the center of discussion on baddies. I didn't understand that replacing "our" with "their", though...

Because you called someone who's not a wolf the cobbler, you can't be the seer?If you are on the good side you wouldn't speculate on that kind of things - whoever the seer is.

There's something awfully off about Nog's seer rant (and him in general), and while it might be only because it was late/he was drunk , I'm currently toying with the idea that he's our Ferny. That would explain his excessive attack against me yesterday and now his worry about being considered the seer (which, to me, sounds much more like the cobbler's plea "Hey wolves I'm like seriously not the seer, don't eat me!" than the real seer trying to maintain his "dum dee dum I'm not the seer" facade. Just because it would be idiotic of the seer to attack a non-dreamed of person like that.)You miss a few very reasonable scenarios here - including the correct one.

After all, she thwarted their first kill and is their worst rival for the title of the Lord of Night-Time Bree.I can't see the wolves going seriously after her any time soon... I mean there is the chance she stuns the ranger or even better, the seer. Also as long as the BW is around we might waste our time talking about her and not the wolves - and as a byproduct some people might even give the wolves some nice hints about who the seer is :confused: etc.

It will get different nearer the end.

Let me make a prophecy. The second wolf going down will reveal the BW's name. :)

[Aganzir]

Firstly, I never said I was convinced you were Ferny, even if Nogrod did. --- you were talking so much, that's true, and that you put forward this weird and I think unworkable plan, but also simply because you talked so much about the cobbler yesterDay.
I know, and that's why the comment was directed more at Nog than you. However, you've kept saying I could be the cobbler without giving any reasons (until now that I called you out on it) - you can't deny it makes you look like you were trying to plant a seed of doubt on people's minds so that I'm easier to kill.
So let's lynch me for being... me? Also, if you think I was overplaying the cobbler thing, please point out which things that I said about the cobblers were irrelevant.

[Aganzir]

Using my time answering your questions is actually doing just that - and the way you frame it isn't the best possible.
Nog, you know, I really like it how you dismiss everything I say with, "She's just the cobbler and I reply to her only because I'm so noble although everybody can see I'm wasting my time!"

not probably saying "let's talk about the BW for a change", but more like trying to bring that person into the center of discussion on baddies. I didn't understand that replacing "our" with "their", though...
Okay that's reasonable. As for our/their, you had previously been talking about if the wolves thought they could get help from the BW, so I thought you meant if they faced trouble, they might try to get the BW onto their side (which would've had more to do with what you said before but wouldn't have made sense otherwise).

If you are on the good side you wouldn't speculate on that kind of things - whoever the seer is.
So pointing out flaws in your logic and that your talk about not being the seer looks like cobbler behaviour is evil?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Going through the thread in order...

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.
I know TEW said they wouldn't be back, but the reasoning for this vote seems to me to be entirely fabricated, and leaving things open no matter which way Eomer flips should he be lynched.

What I don't understand is why you seemingly homed in on Nog without apparently looking at anyone else as a potential wolf-target.
Regarding that particular assumption, Nog is the first one who immediately jumped out at me, so of course I mentioned him first. Then you accused me of only concentrating on Nog, so I discussed him a little more, then moved on. Aren't you being a little jittery, Inzil?

Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her.
We've gone over this, Greenie, it doesn't. :p

Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces.
My argument was not faulty! :( And I don't know if this is just a consequence of how long you've been away, Volo, but I don't care for some of the absolutes you've been making. Who are you to tell us what it's more likely for a wolf to do unless you yourself are a wolf?

Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty.
Why is this?

I seem to recall having a no-Nightkill-Day-2 before, with the depressing sense that it's almost Day 1 replayed.
And I seem to recall being the person who orchestrated the no-Nightkill, and being irritated with you and your sentiment.

I don't know why you seem to think that Nog is the only possible person that could have looked Seerish,
If you could not put words into my mouth I'd appreciate it. Darling, I never said that.

this is a good lead but we still don't have a lot of information and if we start making all these assumptions we could get very side tracked with this BW business instead of looking for the wolves.
This situation is much like a ranger-save. So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?

so I say we let it be, put it on the list of info we have about the BW, and wait til we have more pieces.
Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'. Tis a wolvish sentiment, in truth!

But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me.
And again, accusing me for something you orchestrated strikes me as evil.


Why, I'm honored! "Shasticle's Shastactic". Can that go into the glossary? :p

[quote=Agan]She could have. Better get rid of a suspected seer (even if doing so implicates you - you can always argue it was a framing attempt) before they manage to cause any serious damage.
Good to know, darling.

As long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they could have attacked. Did they target the seer or a player deemed dangerous, did they want to leave no trails, or did they want to frame someone? When either a wolf or the BW is gone, we can go through the posts and see if the dead wolf seemed to know more about some player/if any player seemed to know more about the dead BW. But before that, I think it's a waste of time to try to draw any conclusions from the fact that the wolves attacked the BW last night, and I don't like how intent Shasta is on doing it.
And I'll say again - ignoring any information, for whatever reason, is dangerous and the wolves love to see it happen.

Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you.

*throws a gaze at Shasta, Zil & Lottie especially*
*backspace backspace backspace* That's rather too catty to post on the Downs, so I won't do it. Nevermind.

Do you really consider impersonating the seer (which some of you seem to claim I did) is the way to keep the seer away? Honestly...
If you read the thread like you say you did, you wouldn't have ignored the counterargument that's already been made to this point by my love and I. The fact that you seem to have done exactly that bothers me muchly.

If you are on the good side you wouldn't speculate on that kind of things - whoever the seer is.
I don't think Agan was speculating on who the Seer is, she was poking a hole in your argument.

[wilwarin538]

The first interest of the BW is to not get lynched as only the village can out her. So she can't afford being dreamt of and should then take as low profile as possible in regards the seer; she needs to stay alive to the very end, remember? Do you really consider impersonating the seer (which some of you seem to claim I did) is the way to keep the seer away? Honestly...

The second interest of the BW is to have a maximum number of kills happening (due to her hard victory-conditions), so what is the sense of trying to impersonate the seer with the risk of getting it right and thus calling the wolves to meet her during the Night to no kill being made?

.....

And anyway, if (and when) Aganzir is a cobbler, the wolves wouldn't know it to be true as they don't know who the cobbler is.



So I agree with the first two parts quite a bit. There is no logical reason for the BW to pretend to be the Seer, it's silly, and so if the Wolves chose someone who they felt looked liked a Seer then whatever hints they saw were likely not something the BW meant to do (meaning he probably just said he found someone suspicious, and that person happened to be a wolf; he was not in fact trying to pretend to be the Seer). But all that is assuming they were going for the Seer, which considering how many low key people there were yesterDay, I'm thinking is not as likely as a no-trail kill. And being quiet and under the radar is a much smarter tactic for the BW. Conclusion: they likely went for someone quiet yesterDay, and therefore the BW is someone who was quiet yesterDay.

Overall I feel fairly good about Nog, except the way he is so convinced that Agan is the Cobbler, it's just fishy.

Shasta I'm fairly uneasy about, he comes in with his two Assumptions, the first being that the wolves went for the Seer, and then seems to think that Nog is the only possible option for that. Plus his case had a lot of holes in it, and the way he jumped on Inzil for 'defending Nog' was weird, since I don't feel as though Inzil was really defending him, he was more just disagreeing with Shasta's assumptions.

Also Volo, this:

This is a game where certain knowledge is rare. Post-mortem role revelations and the dreams of a dead Seer are of such quality, but not much else. However players are making accusations based on little hunches, glimpses and clues, which are not definite. The BW also plays by these rules, being quite similar to an Ordo. However, xe can stun, which affects xer way of looking at players' roles. The knowledge of someone being stunned will certainly affect the way the BW looks upon xer victim next Day and might notice things others wouldn't necessarily notice. By "mildly eductated hunches" I meant a wider perspective than that of an ordo's.Related to this was my comment of not angering the BW, which has also been understood in a way I didn't mean it. Based on basic WW psychology I see the following scenario very likely: The BW is suspected for one reason or the other and is very likely or certainly going to be lynched. Xer reaction to this is, probably, wanting revenge to those who caused xer demise, who, in the case of a lynch, are the Innocents (the lynch being the Innocents' way of killing). Xe can revenge by making the game more favourable to the enemies of xer enemies, the Wolves. And this is done by the BW telling on the game thread who xe thinks are the Gifteds - something a Cobbler would do in the similar situation. All in all this is a minor point explained in a long way and this discussion should perhaps be forgotten in favour of using up time for the real game, instead of meta.

Because, I still don't understand how on earth the BW ends up with any more knowledge then the rest of us. I also don't understand why you think they would reveal any of this 'knowledge' or why it would even make any difference. Let's say the Ranger is about to be lynched and at the last minute decides to announce who their picks were every Night, this would provide absolutely nothing for us (unless they had managed to make a save at some point). All we would have is an innocent's list of people they trusted enough to protect, which really doesn't include any special knowledge. It's the same here, the names the BW would be revealing would really just be a list of people they thought might have powers to threaten them, but that doesn't include any special knowledge, so the wolves would have no real reason to go with it. I just don't understand why you seem to think the BW has all this inside info that could harm us. Anyway...

So I need to get back to writing my rediculous history assignment and I should be back soonish to decide who I actually suspect (right now there are some I'm uncomfortable with and the rest I have no opinnion about, so I want to correct that, I need more suspects).

x'ed with Shasta

[Nogrod]

Back again then... so what should we do? Most of the Day has been spent and I'm not too sure it has been too fruitful.

Well, I have a suggestion.

I just checked some of the voting times from yesterDay and saw that Pitchie's vote for Glirdy was a crosspost with Kath's vote making wilwa lead the tally, so I'm a bit less suspicious of it now and am thinking I might have seeing ghosts there.

There were basically three wagons there yesterDay but without any added knowledge it's hard to say which were the malicious and which the innocent wagonings.



Anyway. Just looking at the discussion - and willing to prevent any more seer-speculation as to the target of last Night's kill, I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW.


Why I think so is that...

a) The BW needs to stay low so the chances of getting her are probably better from among the quieter ones - but also, and even more importantly: I'd bet a lot we have at least one - if not two -wolves who take the quiet approach as well.

b) It seems a lot of people are just hanging around without doing much anything and avoiding any discussions while those more into playing the game suspect each others. And you all know how the lurking baddies are the most dangerous in the end.

c) With the misfired kill last Night we could "afford" to try one of the more ambiguos ones. We all know that later we just won't bring ourselves to do it - and the submarine-wolf has good chances of winning.

d) Making this kind of move some of the more quieter players would feel a need to talk up (which we'd dearly need) - or the mates of possible lynch candidates would need to step forwards (which would be great later)... So that would be good indeed.

[Pitchwife]

Just got home after a very busy day, reading now.

[wilwarin538]

If you could not put words into my mouth I'd appreciate it. Darling, I never said that.


This situation is much like a ranger-save. So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?


Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'. Tis a wolvish sentiment, in truth!


1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

[Nogrod]

A correction to the last post of mine... before the everlasting discussion begins once again.

I have used the word "quiet" - but I have also used the words "submarine", "no-trace" and "ambiguos".

I'm not suggesting we take a post count and start from the bottom, but looking at people who are careful enough not to disturb anything or anyone - and who wish to stay in the back not rubbing anyone the wrong way as to awaken their interest or bad will... Or if we had time to look at it more carefully... who only suspect the kinds of "safe targets" everyone (many enough) suspect and just parrot the suspicions of those others.

[Kath]

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do!

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument!

Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful.

[Loslote]

Heeey...I'm here...for a bit...turns out I have a dentist appointment before (and until a bit after) DL, so I'll have to vote soon.

I won't vote for Nog or Shasta, because I actually think they're both relatively innocent.

I won't vote for Eomer, because I want to give TB a chance to try and kill TBW, and I think he's the most likely candidate.

I won't vote for Vanilwuffin or Zil, because they feel somewhat genuine and I want to hold off on them.

I might vote for one of the quieter people. This mostly means Kath, Formy, and Elfie. Of the three, probably not Kath. Maaaybe Formy, but most likely Elfie.

I might vote for Pitchie because I suspected him yesterDay, but only if I get a chance to see him post toDay before I have to go.

[Nogrod]

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine**waves back from his bright white hovercraft* :rolleyes:

Just peeked in to see if anything's going on here... It is interesting to go through the thread D1 and to see how careful everyone is back there. Back with some results after I've gone through it.

[Loslote]

Right, well, I've got to vote and run, so...

++Elfie

Because he's been really quiet, and what he has posted has looked really off (such as his vote post toDay) and because I don't want to vote Pitchie without giving him a chance to post.

Good luck...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it. :rolleyes:

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well? :rolleyes:

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'! :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler, so Shasta's little theory about Nog as a supposed Seer-cum-Wight isn't that shaky as I first thought in this respect. However, Nog has a very good point that impersonating the Seer wouldn't be a brilliant survival strategy for Barry.
One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

On TEW's vote - I would very much like to see a lot more reasoning from him, but I've got a notion where he's coming from, i.e. Eomer's behaviour could remind him of the game when the three of us were packmates together, as it did me. Or he could be have got that idea from me and use it as an excuse. Post some more, man!
On Eomer himself, I'm withholding judgement for now till I see whether he's going to be more involved and making some sense.

Still don't think Agan looks blatantly evil in any way, like Nog for saying we should stop to speculate about the Seer and give the wolves ideas, like Volo better toDay, like wilwa a lot and don't at all get where all the votes against her were coming from; dislike Form's "maybe-I-can-be-bothered-maybe-not" attitude, have to look closer at everybody else.

Lottie, if you're still around: does or doesn't the change in the rules re Barry's endgame killing power affect your opinion that we shouldn't 'waste' a lynch on them in any way ?

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

1. Agan, Greenie, Wilwa, and yourself are the four people Nog mentioned that he found suspicious in that post I quoted, which is why I mentioned you in my theory.

2. It's already been pointed out that Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of this theory, which casts doubt on the rest of you being wolvish as well (in the context of this theory).

3. In the context of your theory, I've been going after Inzil all Day... why on earth would I pass up yet another chance to do so?

(Sidenote - I've tried typing up this post three times, and each time the internet has inexplicably closed... I think I beat it this time though! :D)

[wilwarin538]

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it. :rolleyes:

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well? :rolleyes:

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'! :rolleyes:

I'm really glad there weren't more than 3 points, cause one more eye roll could very well make me snap.

I....don't feel like arguing with you, because I don't like your tone and I think my tone probably wouldn't be much better, so I'm going to stop. We disagree, it happens, whatever, I'm going to move on now.

So, I'm going to skim through the day again, and try to come up with an actual suspect. But I think I'm agreeing with the people who are leaning towards quiet ones, there are a lot of them, and I have this feeling that alot of the loud ones right now, the ones that are arguing with each other and all suspicious of each other, are mostly innocents while the baddies are chilling back going unnoticed.

x'ed with Shasta

[Aganzir]

Nog is the first one who immediately jumped out at me, so of course I mentioned him first. Then you accused me of only concentrating on Nog, so I discussed him a little more, then moved on.
I'm not sure I agree with you. I can see why Nog jumped out at you, but Inzil had a point. It looked like you thought there was no other possibility but Nog, as if you just tried to paint him in a bad light, and while I think Nog looks fairly bad, I'm not sure he's the BW. I don't think the BW could afford to be so... careless.

And I don't know if this is just a consequence of how long you've been away, Volo, but I don't care for some of the absolutes you've been making.
Me neither. I know Volo tends to be a bit eccentric, but he really doesn't look too good in this game. Okay I admit the main thing I don't like about him is his suspicion of me because I don't think it's all that well reasoned, but still.

So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?
Give me half an hour and I can come up with reasons why any one of us could have been attacked. As long as we don't know who they are (or who the BW is), there's no use speculating. It leads nowhere and is a waste of time - and something a wolf or the cobbler would probably like us to do.

Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'.
We're not ignoring anything. We're simply waiting till we have access to the said information. What does it tell you about the wolves or the BW that they targeted her last night? That they wanted her dead. That's all. We still don't know why they wanted her dead, ie. we have no clue who she is or who the wolves are.

I am not overly fond of Shasta at the moment. I simply don't follow his reasoning - I don't think there's a way we can get any information about last night's kill before either a wolf or the BW is dead, and I don't like how he keeps pushing it (okay granted, people, myself included, have brought it up more than once, but still).

I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW.
This sounds better to me than trying to find the seer, but it still doesn't tell us anything about last night. However, I have nothing against lynching a quiet/non-substantial player today, just because not posting is unfair to everybody: to the village if you're a baddie, to the wolves if you're a gifted.

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy
Miss, you'll pay for this! :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Re: Wilwa - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your feelings or anything. I'm just overly fond of the rolleyes smiley. I wasn't trying to be mean, and if I came off that way I apologize. :(

Re: Agan - "Not overly fond"? That cuts me to the quick, it really does. However, coming from someone who goes from agreeing with me re: Volo to going after me for a reason I've explained multiple times, it doesn't cut as much as it normally would. :p

[Pitchwife]

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

EDIT: also x-ed with Shasta, I see.

[Kath]

Miss, you'll pay for this! :p
Moi?! :D

Right, I'm going to wander through Day 2 now, have a look at what's been going on.

Ooh one thing though. There was some argument between Agan and .... someone. I want to say Nerwen but I can't remember. It was about not knowing the rules and that being a really guilty thing to do. Just wanted to put it out there that I disagree. These games with experimental roles are complicated. If even Boro is altering/clarifying the rules still then I don't think not being totally certain on them counts as particular grounds for suspicion. This might have been laid to rest already but I just suddenly remembered it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It looked like you thought there was no other possibility but Nog, as if you just tried to paint him in a bad light,

I've no desire to continue beating this dead horse. Read up a few posts and you'll find my rebuttal.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

[wilwarin538]

Re: Wilwa - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your feelings or anything. I'm just overly fond of the rolleyes smiley. I wasn't trying to be mean, and if I came off that way I apologize. :(


Meh, you didn't hurt nothing, and not mean, just annoying. :p I still love you.


I just really need to get at least one more page done of this aweful assignment, it's taken me all day to write like 3 paragraphs. :rolleyes: So once I can get past my attention problems and get on with it, I will come back and look through everything again.

[Nogrod]

Greenie called me a minute ago.

She can't get her laptop to connect to the internet and as she has not been able to read what has been discussed about for the last few hours she said she would not vote.


On another note, I'm almost done with my re-read and I think I have to adjust / add to some of my previous thoughts...

[Aganzir]

"Not overly fond"? That cuts me to the quick, it really does.
Sorry, it was badly phrased. It should've said, "I think Shasta looks slightly evil at the moment," which translates as, "I find Shasta slightly more adorable than usually at the moment." :Merisu:

There was some argument between Agan and .... someone.
Haha I wonder which one of my arguments you're talking about. :p Pitch said he finds it hard to believe an innocent Agan would've got confused with the rules. I asked for clarification.

I've no desire to continue beating this dead horse. Read up a few posts and you'll find my rebuttal.
I know, I just still disagree.

edit: xed with wilwa & Nog. Tell Greenie to come here! ♥

[Formendacil]

Well... I'm here and reading, and while I am utterly disinclined to do so, I feel guilty about not posting so... I'm posting. Pitch has unflatteringly, but dead-accurately described me as "maybe I can be bothered, maybe not," and to be 100% honest, I'm more wrapped up in my paper at the moment than in catching wolves.

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me. I believe I have been obliqued accused of being somewhat callous already... let me dig up the quote...

You're upset no-one got killed in the Night? Really? :rolleyes:

Okay, maybe I exaggerate to say "callous," but it's a nice, hard-boiled accusation that would fit with Pitch's description of me. And, let's be clear: I am a bit callous here. We would have more to go on if we had a cold, dead wolf-kill. At Night 2 in the game, it's arguably more valuable for the village to lose an ordo and gain some concrete evidence than to go kill-less. Obviously, this will vary depending on the situation--for example, in the case of a Ranger-save, at least the Ranger knows who one innocent is, and can do some digging accordingly... but the only people in THIS situation who now know more than they did yesterDay are the BW and the Wolves... none of whom are on the village's side.

Heh--look at that! I'm all worked up now. A good, rousing reply in the next half hour or so might even spur me to more action.

Maybe. :p

[Pitchwife]

Pitch said he finds it hard to believe an innocent Agan would've got confused with the rules. I asked for clarification.
Ah, I forgot to reply to that. What I meant was you could be faking confusion to cover up that you were trying to mislead us on purpose on Barry's winning conditions, but you already answered that yesterDay that you would have considered that 'unsportsmanlike', and I feel you're the kind of person who may actually have her own code of honour on such things, so I think I'm satisfied as to that.

[Volo]

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2
Kath - wilwa 3
Pitch - Glirdan 3
Zil - Glirdan 4
Aganzir – Glirdan 5
EW – Volo
Loslote – Agan 4
Nogrod – Agan 5
Shasta – Glirdan 6

No vote: Nerwen

If I'm not mistaken. Assumptions based upon the votes alone won't help.

I'm sorry, but I really don't have much to say.
Greenie feels better now that I've reread her posts. Not anyhow especially alarming and contributing well enough. Might do good to keep her around.
wilwa also gives out the ordo vibe.
sally wouldn't like to see lynched. However at this moment I'm a bit desperate. Half of the players are really deep under the sea. And the talkative players don't seem to get anywhere. As uncreative as it really is, I nearly see most sense in voting a quiet player. Somebody who isn't even trying/able to contribute. Eomer, tEW, me... there's quite a choice. And no, I do not imply that I'm the Cobbler.

I'll probably end up bandwagoning whoever feels the guiltest. If I manage to overtake my friend's computer again. :/

[Inziladun]

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

Once again, my purpose was not so much to "defend Nog", but to try to get you away from your tunnel vision. If you want to vote for Nog because you're convinced he's the BW, have at it.

Not sure who I'll vote for yet. I could possibly go for Eomer or Volo, but I'd like to see more of both first.

x/d with Volo himself

[Nogrod]

I went through D1 to see what people were doing in the light of bantering (b), talking about game-mechanics (m), suspecting (s), making suspicions via banter (bs) defending (d), self-defending (sd), finding someone odd (o), explaining (e), being neutral (n)... (neutral suspicion and neutral defence are also marked - as (ns) and (nd) - you know that "maybe or maybe not"...)

NB. Producing tallies or saying "I'm around" are interpreted as mechanics-talk (m)

NB.2. A number after an s (suspect) or a d (defend) means how many people it concerns. The letter only means the person is suspecting/defending one person only.


My perspective on this was and is that the wolves would not like to spread suspicion around as that would lead to bad feelings and thus a heightened possibility of getting lynched while the goodies would try to find anything that is suspicious and bring that forwards. On the same logic, the wolves would like to rub people the right way while the ordo's should care less of it.

There are different conceptions of this to be sure.

Also remember that those symbols are for general interpretation: a d (for "defending someone" is just speaking good of someone, not everytime saying "s/hes not bad!") etc.


As an example:

Glirdy-cobbler: m m m/sd

That means he made two posts talking of the game.mechanics (m & m) and then one talking about the game mechanics and making a self-defence (m/sd).


So here's first whom I think were the least "productive" on D1 (D1, mind you... it's not the same toDay with all of these people)

Okay? (in brackets a comment on the vote that person made)


Eomer: b bs bs (too talkative)

Sally: b b m m m (meta: quite a wishy-washy vote)

Nerwen: m m b/m m (no vote?)

The Elf-Warrior: b b m m m (someone found a Freudian slip)

Form: b b d/s2 (meta: the odd choosing the more fun from more useful)

Kath: b/bd b m ns3 (wilwa not particularly guilt-ridden)


Okay more to come... just a short break to read - and to have a cigarette... :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

Okay, maybe I exaggerate to say "callous," but it's a nice, hard-boiled accusation that would fit with Pitch's description of me. And, let's be clear: I am a bit callous here. We would have more to go on if we had a cold, dead wolf-kill. At Night 2 in the game, it's arguably more valuable for the village to lose an ordo and gain some concrete evidence than to go kill-less. Obviously, this will vary depending on the situation--for example, in the case of a Ranger-save, at least the Ranger knows who one innocent is, and can do some digging accordingly... but the only people in THIS situation who now know more than they did yesterDay are the BW and the Wolves... none of whom are on the village's side.
You're right there - finding some of the wolves could point us to Barry, finding Barry could point us to the wolves, but at the moment we know neither, so we can't really draw any helpful conclusions from the Night-kill (Shasta has tried to, but his theory doesn't look too promising).
So what do we know?
I still think the wolves will want to keep Barry around for a while, but get rid of xem before xe becomes too much of a nuisance. (In the end, of course, they won't care whether they lose to xem or the village.)
Barry will only gain xer killing power, and be able to win, once the wolves are all gone. So xe has to lie low for now, avoid to get lynched, and might even help us to get rid of them first.
We (the village) want to get rid of all of them, and we certainly don't want Barry to gain xer killing powers. (That's why I'm still wary of Lottie for suggesting we don't lynch Barry in the (unlikely) case that we get a chance to do so; but I'll probably return her courtesy and not vote her toDay in her absence.)
At the moment I don't really have a clue what to conclude from all of this, but it's food for thought.

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
Nogrod. I'm really torn about him. It seems he's being all crazy only when he's talking with/about me - his "how about we lynch a submarine?" suggestion was good, and I find myself agreeing with his post #98 - but then he keeps misunderstanding me and continues his ridiculous cobbler campaign. Plus what Shasta & Nerwen mentioned about the holes in his argument.
sally. I dislike her vote for me yesterday ("Agan could do this as a baddie, ergo she is a baddie"), she just agreed on what others (mostly Volo) had said about me. Plus, I find this comment off:
Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!
It might be just me, but I'd think an innocent reaction to a day 1 bandwagon would be "Eep, I hope it's not a catastrophe," but sally seems like she doesn't care.
Volo. Again, I'm suspicious of him because he suspects me (but when you're innocent, you know everyone who attacks you is either wrong or evil). He was suspicious of Greenie and voted for me only (it seemed) because I found her innocent, and today he comes here with lots of reasons for my being suspicious, one of them that I was happy to talk about the cobblers. Plus I agree with Shasta on his absolutes.
Nerwen. For pushing the idea of my being the cobbler without giving reasons before I asked, and suspecting me for something I always do.
Shasta. I disagree with him on the whole "who could the wolves have attacked?" thing, and I think it's more in a baddie's than an innocent's interests to make us waste our time on it.

INNOCENT
Greenie. I also disagree with her on the importance of discussing who the wolves might have targeted (for now), but apart from that nothing has changed.
wilwa. I find myself agreeing with her and she looks generally innocent.
Pitch. See wilwa.
Loslote. I seem to disagree with her on everybody, but now that she's posted more, she actually looks quite innocent.

EITHER
Eomer. In the process of perfecting the art of saying as little as possible in as many words as possible (but he's amusing).
Form. Lots of philosophical rambling about himself.
Inzil. I simply can't read him. I should probably take a look at him at some point if I have time.
Kath. Evil, if nothing else for saying everybody's happy if I'm lynched. See Inzil.
EW. My gut feeling is he's innocent - he posts way too little to my liking, but he doesn't remind me of the EW wolf I played with a while ago. I don't mind if he's lynched though.

I'd prefer to vote for Nog, Volo or sally (I suspect Nog the most, but Volo and sally are quieter), but I could also go for someone in my Either category (not Inzil though before I've had a look at him, and I don't want to vote for Nerwen or Shasta either).

[Nogrod]

A quick interlude - looking at the clock I see I might not be able to produce the table in its entirety anyway.

After re-reading D1 I will not vote for Greenie (especially regarding the fact she can't be around toDay anymore).

Even if I still think Aganzir is the cobbler (sorry for my insistence, but I have my reasons), I would not like to vote her either toDay. She seems to be the powerhouse of suspecting people (after me, of course, or well, with me... :rolleyes:) so I think she's good to have around to notice things we might ignore. (Although I must say she was quick to defend a host of people as well, like the baddies wish to do to rub them the right way).


EDIT: X'd with A Gun

[Aganzir]

*shoots Nog*

:p

[Kath]

Day 2:

Shasta: I actually love him for his first comment. :D Assumption 1: The wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. And suggested Nog for being sure about Agan, while questioning this as Agan went after Nog. Bit of a non-thought maybe? Says not only the BW would pose as the Seer, other roles may well do it too. Says Inzil is defending Nog. Well, technically yes, but I think more what he's doing is arguing that other people should be looked at as well. Now I don't like the way Shasta leaps on this comment of Inzil's, but nor do I much like these attempts to 'out' the Seer by either of them. Assumption 2: The wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace. Mentioned by others already and yeah fair point.

wilwa: Says the wolves went for the Barrow Wight. Suggests we look at quiet players or look for Seer hints. Prefers the former as the latter will be harder. Given that there was no kill so there are no 'safe' players to look for Seer hints in I do think that the latter would also be a bit more dangerous for the Seer. Interesting idea of something to do with Shasta's throwaway comment. Good point that actually the BW isn't going to know anything really. Say Nog was the Ranger and the BW stunned him, unless it's made explicit in the narration that the Ranger's role was affected, the BW isn't going to be able to deduce that the Ranger must be Nog.

Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this. Says it is in the opposite interests of the BW to attract Seer attention. Pushes the quiet players = evil theory as per usual! About half a Day after everyone else this time. :D I'm hating this 'code' - I can't remember what any of the letters stand for. Won't vote Greenie as she can't be here. Won't vote Agan because though he thinks she's a Cobbler he thinks she gets good discussion going. To be honest, if you think someone is evil I'd say go after them, but I suppose it's good reasoning.

Inzil: Don't get it. Why bring a comment on Volo in to suggest Nog was the Seer when the comment had no 'certainty' to it. Throws Eomer in as a possible Seer candidate for being 'certain' about Agan - fair point actually. Says that Glirdan voting wilwa means he didn't think her a wolf - I actually wouldn't bet on that. Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post. So I wouldn't have said he was 'pushing' the idea. "Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me. " This I feel is inflammatory and unfair.

Lottie: Thinks quieter people or early voters would be more likely Night kills, suggesting Eomer, Form and Elfie (I like that shortening!). Well fair point. Says Eomer might be the BW but that we should leave the BW up to TB. In these early days it is more important to go wolf hunting, but as Shasta says talking about the BW does give TB more information to go on. Thinks Nog and Shasta innocent, thinks Eomer is the BW, thinks wilwa and Inzil are ok and is tempted to vote for Elfie for being quiet or Pitch after yesterDay. Votes Elfie because Pitch hasn't spoken - I like that, giving someone a chance to defend themselves.

Nerwen: Says if Nog were the Wight then Agan would be a cobbler not a wolf anyway. Um, why? Says Eomer doesn't count as a no-trace kill. I'm glad she was as confused by Nog as I was. Votes Agan for overplaying the Cobbler thing, being overly defensive and going after the BW too much.

Elfie: Just one post? Says Lottie seems ok and votes Eomer because he (?) has no idea what he might be. Erm, right, odd. And says Volo seems ok on further consideration. Really strange little post this.

Eomer: Says let TB go after Nog toNight and ignore him from now on. Yeah why not?

Greenie: Doesn't trust people who don't make an effort with their vote, for example Form and Eomer. "Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her." I love this comment because I think this is the crux of the argument and is where I'm totally lost.

Volo: Thinks Nog might be a wolf because he's tense, but thinks if he were a wolf then he'd be hiding this better. Doesn't think he's the BW. Thinks Agan suspicious for putting forth a way to out the BW which would take attention away from the lynch itself. Well it's a fair reason. Thinks Shasta innocent. Interesting idea that the BW may take against the innocents if outed that way. Thinks Greenie and wilwa look ok, not sure on anyone else. Will likely vote a quiet player.

Form: Nothing in that post except complaints. And a second one!

wilwa: I'm reading these posts having seen Shasta explain that he wasn't only focusing on Nog, he just hadn't had a chance to get further. I don't know whether, had I not seen this already, I'd have read the argument in the same way as wilwa - who says Shasta seemed to think only Nog was a possibility. That said, I still agree that we need to be careful when talking about possible Seers.

Agan - ah, I've realised I've been skimming Agan's posts and not commenting. Well I probably commented on most of what she said when talking about other people. Anyway. Finds Nog, sally, Volo, Nerwen and Shasta guilty. Finds Greenie, wilwa, Pitch and Lottie innocent. Likely to vote Nog, Volo or sally. She has reasoning for everyone, and based on how many discussions and arguments she's been involved in with most of the people named it is pretty extensive.

Votes:
Nerwen - Agan

By the way - Volo made a Freudian slip? What was that?

Oh and Pitch. I didn't mean to offend with my appalling lack of memory. Our dear mod has to give me daily reminders that the game is going on just so I remember to turn up so please don't think it's just you!

Ah and it was Pitch not Nerwen who had that argument with Agan about the rules. Which is funny given this later comment by Pitch: Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler.

Right, posting this then I'll think about a vote.

[Pitchwife]

That's just plain weird, coming from a veteran like Nogrod, who knows perfectly well that there's a long history of other roles impersonating the Seer. He's arguing for the improbability of something that happens all the time. (Yes, I know Shasta has already drawn attention to this, but really, I think it needs more.)
No, Nog makes perfect sense here. Impersonating the Seer is usually a quick way to die. Innocents do it in order to be killed instead of the real Seer. But somebody whose winning condition is to be the sole survivor? Not a chance in hell IMO.
Shasta used the same argument, which is just completely wrong. Now this makes me really wonder about the two of you...

[Kath]

Leaning guilty:
Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.

Nog - Confusing and rude in tone to Agan.

Inzil - Well maybe being in the middle of the argument alters your view but as I said I thought some of his comments were inflammatory and unfair.

Elfie: Didn't like that single post. Unlikely to vote her because she said she won't be back.

Volo - Is going to be in deep trouble if his style keeps getting him on to this side of the lists. Because that's why he's here - what he's actually said seems ok, but there's something running the wrong way there.

Leaning innocent:
Lottie - Think she's ok.
Eomer.
Greenie.

No idea:
Nerwen
wilwa
Form - and I'm oh so tempted to vote him so the hardship of being here is removed for him.
Agan - there's almost too much surrounding her to be able to decide what to do there. I'm still half inclined to suggest lynching her and be done with it!

Haha I accidentally wrote about wilwa twice! In the first section I conclude she's pretty innocent, in the section I get rather suspicious! I've put her in no idea as a result.

Back in a minute with a vote. Want to check any cross posts first.

[Aganzir]

Actually, this comment would be very convenient for Eomer of the Wights:
Interesting theory on Nogrod. Probably worth checking out; all this means is that we let Tom go after him tonight and see what happens. Until then, ignore Nogrod. Agreed? :p
Because however suspicious Nog might be, I have a hard time seeing him post comments that can be interpreted seerish (I'm mainly speaking about his being certain I'm the cobbler) and thus luring the wolves, or ruffling so many feathers (yes, I have lots of them :p) if his primary goal was to survive.

[Nogrod]

So a few quickly now... and then some comments.

Inzil: b b/m b b b m m m m d/s d2/ns2 d/s (for Glirdan's random vote)

Lottie: b b sd/m m m sd/d3/ns2 m s/d d (to keep Glirdy alive)

Volo: b/m m b m m s2 s ns ("Won't. Vote. Randomly. So. Die. Please.")


The rest I think earn their game.


NB.

Pitchie defends a lot of people and suspects only selected few - it makes me worried still, but he seems to talk and argue... which is the point of the game anyway.

Wilwa is very much careful - actually not suspecting anyone (except Glirdy-cobbler who voted for her) on D1 but defending two people.

Keep in mind my hunches from yesterDay and toDay here on the later Days. But for now I think it's futile to try and lynch someone who could be of a great help if innocent.


Oh, Shasta... I'm wondering why it is okay to say I'm aggressive but none says it of him... :rolleyes:

Hard to say about him... At times he looks pretty bad, but when there is this beginning wagon against him I feel like defending him. My feelings would say more guilty than not, I'm not sure about my reason... there are arguments for (his insistence on the theory of me being the BW which is ridiculous but he can't admit he's wrong - he says his "theory" still holds when it doesn't) and against (he stands up against what looks like the majority view which is easily led by ipressive talkers, and he suspects people like a good ordo should).


EDIT: X'd from my death scene, Agan shooting me...

[Formendacil]

So... somewhere since mid-afternoon, I lost an hour somewhere. This is mostly outside people's interest, except insofar as it means I thought I had more like an hour and a half till the deadline than a mere half hour... and it also means that I need to be moving along to greener scenes of interest.

Ergo, I should vote now.

Personally, I like Nog's reasoning vis-a-vis Agan being a Cobbler, but she's much too hot a topic toDay for me to vote for on that reason alone. Without studying it to the extent that it deserves, I don't want to be swept up in something with such highly volatile bandwaggon potential.

Who does that leave?

Unfortunately, not really anyone... except maybe Nog himself, if his theory's wrong, but of course there's no way to know that without lynching Agan.

My vote then is going to be essentially a throw-away, and I accept full association with the scorn that will be heaped upon me in Day 3 (if I survive that long). In the interests of economy, we'll stick with yesterday's vote then...

++ wilwarin

Who actually DOES feel slightly more "off" toDay to me, but not in any sort of way that I'm actually going to be able to pin down.

[Kath]

Argh I missed Pitch off - I'm seriously going to be hated soon. :D If it's any consolation the last post made me think you innocent.

So, vote:

++FORM
I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave. :)

[Kath]

*sigh* And of course my vote cross posts with Form. Oh well.

[Nogrod]

No, Nog makes perfect sense here. Impersonating the Seer is usually a quick way to die. Innocents do it in order to be killed instead of the real Seer. But somebody whose winning condition is to be the sole survivor? Not a chance in hell IMO.
Shasta used the same argument, which is just completely wrong. Now this makes me really wonder about the two of you...Exactly. Nice to see someone at last understands what I'm saying...

Compare to this... Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this.
:(

[wilwarin538]

Some thoughts on a few things.

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

I'm confused as to why entertaining is a better trait then useful.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA



This is silly. I gave a great reason (that his vote was unnecessarily random, and that he seemed very jumpy and all over the place, and mentioned some crazy thing about Cobblers that made no sense, I even stated that it made him look like a cobbler...and was clearly spot on).

I have this strange fear that Form, Kath and Eomer are wolves together, and they are all being quiet and distant and pretending to want to kill each other, just cause they know how awesome they are and that we won't want to kill them right away. :rolleyes:

That's just plain weird, coming from a veteran like Nogrod, who knows perfectly well that there's a long history of other roles impersonating the Seer. He's arguing for the improbability of something that happens all the time. (Yes, I know Shasta has already drawn attention to this, but really, I think it needs more.)


Must have missed this earlier. He was not saying that it's improbable for anyone to pretend to be the Seer, he's saying it's improbable for the BW to pretend to be the Seer, since the Seer would then check them out and reveal them, or the Wolves would try and kill him and figure him out.

Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty.


I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned this part yet, but I don't understand how killing Nog would be unsporty.


So at this moment I don't like Form, Eomer or Kath, because they have odd reasons for voting people and they seem very blaze about everything. I'm tempted to just let them be for a while, but I would kinda also like to see one of them go (Form foremost, then Eomer, then Kath, since she just posted quite a bit).

Volo....uhm, I don't like his logic. He just doesn't make sense to me, and seems to post really long things that don't really say anything helpful, and I think a few people have brought up things he's said that didn't make sense, and I don't remember seeing him explain too many of them. I would be willing to vote him.

I'm tempted to vote Shasta, but I think right now it's just a case of me not agreeing with him, so I probably won't. I feel very good about Inzil and Lottie, and fairly good about Pitch, Agan and Noggins. Neutral about everyone else.

Wow...that's so lame. I really thought I was more suspicious of people then that.

x'ed since Form....really? *sigh*

[Nogrod]

A tally, anyone? I'm off for a cigarette to gather my thoughts.

[Boromir88]

I believe so far vote are...

Elf Warrior - Eomer
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - Elf Warrior
Form - wilwa
Kath - Form

Editted to correct the actual vote count

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'd prefer to vote for Nog, Volo or sally (I suspect Nog the most, but Volo and sally are quieter), but I could also go for someone in my Either category (not Inzil though before I've had a look at him, and I don't want to vote for Nerwen or Shasta either).
You don't want to vote for my dear one or I, and yet you find us both guilty? How interesting. :p

Re - Inzil: I didn't have... oh, what's the use. I'm not arguing this with you any more.

Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post.
Kath, have I told you lately that I love you? :p

No, Nog makes perfect sense here. Impersonating the Seer is usually a quick way to die. Innocents do it in order to be killed instead of the real Seer. But somebody whose winning condition is to be the sole survivor? Not a chance in hell IMO.
Yes, they do, but in the BW's case, they (obviously) cannot be killed by the wolves, so there's no real danger there, is there?

Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.
Iwasn'tfocusingontheSeerIwasmakinganassumptionthat hasbeenblownentirelyoutofproportion... bah, you know what, forget it, rehashing the same argument over and over and over is getting redundantly stupid. Moving on.

(his insistence on the theory of me being the BW which is ridiculous but he can't admit he's wrong - he says his "theory" still holds when it doesn't)
Nerwen, Kath, and Pitch all seem to not think it's entirely 'ridiculous'. So...

I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave.
She's absolutely right. Form, really...?

[Aganzir]

Kath, if it's any consolation, I won't start hating you any time soon even though you've threatened to lynch me because you make me laugh. A lot. :p

At the moment it's
EW - Eomer
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Form - wilwa
Kath - Form

Left: Agan, Eomer, Greenie, Inzil, Nog, Pitch, sally, Shasta, Volo, wilwa

I'm currently inclined to vote for Volo, at least if there's no support for a sally lynch. Eomer is an option too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Must have missed this earlier. He was not saying that it's improbable for anyone to pretend to be the Seer, he's saying it's improbable for the BW to pretend to be the Seer, since the Seer would then check them out and reveal them, or the Wolves would try and kill him and figure him out.


I honestly don't see why it's so improbable. The main danger (that the wolves will go after people that look Seerish) is negated since the wolves can't kill the BW, and the other danger (that the Seer will dream people who look Seerish) - just how likely is that, considering that ordos do it all the time? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I think it's much more likely the Seer will dream those s/he suspects of Wolvery in general.

[Nogrod]

Looking at my first set of people I'd say...

Eomer is non-involved but makes sense (not his vote on D1 though - but it suits the way of playing I don't personally like)

TEW seems like not interested / being busy.

Form looks genuine - even if, and becasue, he has other more pressing things in mind.

Kath, Sally and Nerwen all ring different alarm-bells... I'd be surprised if there wasn't a wolf among them - but I'd be surprised if there were two or three...


From the next list...

Inzil, Volo and Lottie... any one of them could be a wolf. A careful one, an odd one and another careful one. I'd bet once again there's one there...

(Heh, I see this is way too easy... take three and say one of them probably is a baddie... not good. :confused:)

Time is running... sorry.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I could vote for Volo, but I'd much rather vote for Inzil. And I won't vote Sally on account of she's been sick. :( I'm currently neutral on Eomer but am inclined to see if he steps it up tomorrow (last chance, Eomer!)

[Nogrod]

Yes, they do, but in the BW's case, they (obviously) cannot be killed by the wolves, so there's no real danger there, is there? Impersonating the seer will draw the attention of the seer. It's the best way to do it - if that is what you want... SO for a BW that would be the worst scenario...

[Inziladun]

I've been scanning the thread for the past half hour or so, trying to make up my mind.

I'm not impressed at all with Eomer, but I don't like TEW's vote for him either.

Volo still pings the radar.

Shasta is either evil or insane. Or both. :p

So, vote:

++FORM
I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave. :)

Cold, that! I could possibly vote for Form, though. His votes have been odd both Days, and he's been around so little.

x/d with all since #214

[wilwarin538]

I'm seriously tempted to vote for Form. He thinks Agan could be the Cobbler but instead does a throw away? And he doesn't seem to really care all too much. (I know he said he would care more as a wolf, but I'm not inclined to take his word on that).

But.....I don't think I will. I want too, I'll admit partly out of spite (if someone votes me for finding me suspicious I'll get over it, but voting me on random is annoying and I don't like it), but something about it seems almost...too obvious? If that makes sense.

Gah. I'm going to go with:

++Volo

I definitely want to go for a quieter person, and he seems like one of those loud quiet people, ya know the ones that say a lot without actually saying much, and what he does say doesn't make a lot of sense.

x'ed with a bunches

[Shastanis Althreduin]

At the moment it's
EW - Eomer
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Form - wilwa
Kath - Form

Of these, Agan probably looks the worst, but only because there are two on that list (Eomer and EW) who haven't really looked like anything. I'm not at all inclined to vote Wilwa, could join Kath in voting Form on principle... not sure I want to vote EW on the basis of one post... bah. I want to vote for Inzil but it's really too late in the day to make it a six-way tie.

[Aganzir]

++Volo

As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Impersonating the seer will draw the attention of the seer. It's the best way to do it - if that is what you want... SO for a BW that would be the worst scenario...

Well, the only thing I can say about this is that this is your opinion (and that's all) and that I'm obviously not going to sway you from it, so let's just drop the subject. We obviously disagree and that's fine, but much more and I'm going to get angry with you. :p

[Pitchwife]

Ah, a post by Kath, a list, and even a vote! I'm impressed (and not offended btw). As for the vote, I could even get behind that.
And a post and a vote from Form, with actually some few opinions. Wow. As for the vote, I strongly disagree.

DL soon, right? And I'm feeling fine, in doubt or flipflopping about most of the more vocal players. Garrrh.

I think I'll go with
++Eomer

He hasn't come back and delivered the more reasoned vote he promised us, and it looks like he's not going to, and he could well be a quiet wolf or Wight, and I'd rather be able to stop wondering what the heck he's up to.

PS. - Shasta, your reply to me re Nog - you're right there, I'll have to think this over again.

[Nogrod]

Of trhose voted I'd prefer Volo (he's being acting strange) or if new ones would be considered, I'd say Sally...

X'd with Pitchie

[Aganzir]

EW - Eomer
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Form - wilwa
Kath - Form
wilwa - Volo
Agan - Volo 2
Pitch - Eomer 2

Left: Eomer, Greenie, Inzil, Nog, sally, Shasta, Volo

[Inziladun]

++Volo

[Volo]

Ok, I see where this is leading. Don't vote for me. I'm the Ranger. wilwa is not the BW.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Got to be...

++Volo, then.

[Nogrod]

Eomer makes more sense than Volo...

++ Volo


X'd from my earlier post...

[Inziladun]

Ok, I see where this is leading. Don't vote for me. I'm the Ranger. wilwa is not the BW.

Blast! Where were you!?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, lovely. :rolleyes:

Three more votes for Eomer, then? Maybe?

[wilwarin538]

Ok, I see where this is leading. Don't vote for me. I'm the Ranger. wilwa is not the BW.

Snap.

Well, I'm inclined to believe him, since his last statement is in fact correct.

So I would say no one else should vote for him.

x'ed since Shasta's vote...so much for that

[Volo]

++Eomer

[Inziladun]

Hurry! Who's left?

[Nogrod]

What!!!! :eek:

Back... anyone?

[Aganzir]

Greenie isn't here, it's too late. :( If Volo and sally vote for Eomer, there's still a chance - and Eomer if you're here, you had better vote yourself!

I'm sorry Volo. :(

[Boromir88]

Deadline.

Stop chattering and voting.

I believe tis Volo lynched.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hi. I need a definitive vote count, please, and the narration's going to be a little late since I'm making dinner.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

EW - Eomer (Eomer1)
Nerwen - Agan (Eomer1, Agan1)
Lottie - EW (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1)
Form - Wilwa (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1)
Kath - Form (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Wilwa - Volo (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1, Volo1)
Agan - Volo (Volo1, Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Pitch - Eomer (Volo2, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Inzil - Volo (Volo3, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Shasta - Volo (Volo4, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Nogrod - Volo (Volo5, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Volo - Eomer (Volo5, Eomer3, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)

Did not vote - Greenie, Eomer, Sally

There you go, Fea.

[Pitchwife]

Boro, apologies for posting after DL, but I'm dying with suspense and I have to go to bed soon, so would you awfully mind letting us know what Volo's role was?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Click me. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7503943/)

[Boromir88]

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf
Night 2: No death!
Day 2: Volo - Ranger

Night 3. All those having nightly duties, carry on.

[Boromir88]

As the village went back to their rooms, heads hung low from poor lynch, three snuck away unnoticed to begin further plotting. Despite the sweet lynch, they were still quite hungry from the failed kill the previous night.

"I can't believe that just happened" grinned the other Alpha. "Now we know who the Wight is, so it shall be easy to avoid and with no guardian, looks like our fortunes are finally beginning to change."

"Aye" said the last Alpha. "And let us hope it's a seer snack tonight. That will more than fill my hungry stomach."

Feeling a new air of arrogance in their step, the wolves didn't even bother sneaking in, they simply busted the door right off its hinges. Even if they had been more quiet, Nogrod would have seen them come in, as he was still awake busily running about the room. He was stirred by the wolves entrance and rushed to grab a wooden staff on the floor. "Back you devils! I'll throw you all out myself if I have to."

But the wolves were just amused. "All the rangers are gone. You seriously think you can stop us? Bree will be raised to the ground in a matter of days. How shall we prepare this one mates? Slit his throat?"

"Smash his head!" shouted the second.

"No. He looks real delicious. Let's rip out his heart and eat it!" said the third.

"How about we just slit his throat, smash his head, rip out his heart, then devour him? Since we didn't get the spoils of a kill last night, let's have some fun."

The wolves laughed wickedly. Nogrod dropped his staff and melted on the spot.

"Well that wasn't much fun, he didn't put up any fight!" sulked one of the Alphas.

"No fun at all. But he still looks tasty!"

So the wolves devoured Nogrod and they enjoyed it immensely. For he was like a prime cut of meat, and the wolves were dying for a satisfying big meal. The only thing that troubled them now is, somehow, eating Nogrod had curiously made them thirsty.

"Ack! I really need something to drink...like NOW!" gagged an Alpha. The other two agreed. In the corner stood a wooden keg that read Barley's Best.

One of the wolves rushed to the corner and began gulping down the draught. "MMM this really hits the spot." Then the others leaped and began drinking the ale. They drank and partied the night away. Not only did they get the best meal in a long time, but now they were delighting in the best ale. At the same time, the wolves could all feel something weird happening to them. None of them could describe the feeling, but it surely wasn't natural.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod) - knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod) - nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf
Night 2: No death!
Day 2: Volo (innocent) - Ranger
Night 3: Nogrod (innocent) - Butterbur

*Note. The wolves will be able to talk next night phase, but there will be no kill.

It's now Day 3. Discuss. :D

[wilwarin538]

So without a Ranger (which was a bad situation, that's one instance where more last minute voters would have been a good thing), Butterbur was actually the best person they could have killed (besides killing their own Cobbler). Now we don't have to worry about losing anyone else next Night. So one Cobbler gone, and two Nights without losing someone (besides the loss of the Ranger), we've been pretty lucky .

I should be on a bit over the next few hours, and then randomly for the last few hours of the Day.

[Inziladun]

Now, perhaps we can put Shasta's theory to rest. :rolleyes:

At least there's no kill toNight.

[Inziladun]

So without a Ranger (which was a bad situation, that's one instance where more last minute voters would have been a good thing)

Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent.