WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Rikae]

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer. :p

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer. :p

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

Brilliant, we should totally do this. :p

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

[skip spence]

Skip, I can only assume that you're saying I couldn't have spotted any seer hint the wolves would have missed, since I'm not nearly as clever as they are. Well, if you say so. I can only assume you know what you're talking about...
Okay, to clarify: I was referring to that earlier post toDay that appeared to be addressed to the seer (though I didn't rightly understand it) and to some earlier mysterious posts (though I don't remember exactly when and where they can be found now). And no, my point wasn't to imply that you couldn't possibly pick up on any seer-hints, my point was that these tricksy, mysterious posts - like I said I seem to remember a few - are innocent-looking, but that I've just started to fear that this is only for show. I'm by no means sure, and at present I'm not really considering voting you.

This was the criticism of Legate I was referring to:
Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Voting? Right now, I would prefer... well, I would not really put Boro as my first pick for a vote, as I think he is "just" a Cobbler, and not Mänwe, nor skip. Pitch, as he posted now, actually makes me feel a bit better about him. That limits my choices rather drastically, though. As Eomer wrote on the admin thread that Cailín is not around, I would perhaps not vote for her in her absence, that leaves me with Elron Hubbard or Shasta. The posts he has made now are moving him more to the suspicious side of my scale, with some of the vocabulary which even he pointed out as wishy-washy (I'm not putting him past saying that himself as a sort of double-bluff) and also with the possibility that he seeks a new target in Mänwe (whom I now think more likely innocent).

But still, lot to think about...

EDIT: x-ed with Skip

[skip spence]

Brilliant, we should totally do this. :p

Agreed. Give me a bit though, I'm still too confused.

Mac maybe, though I'd like to go back and read some of his earlier stuff before I commit to that. Let's not be hasty! In fact I've a bad feeling the wws are rubbing their hands with glee as we tear away at each other.

Will be back in a bit.

[Mänwe]

Compelled to respond now :p



#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game.

Well I know what role I play in our incarceration. I needed like others have needed from me, "more to go on", therefore I asked them to have a say. I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players- knowing I myself could be counted among them.

Won't vote for Boro.

Because that day I didn't consider him a wolf.

Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked

Because I anticipated being asked and being judged on my vote as has happened to others so far.

~~

In regards to the 'flipflop' comments- my defense of the quiet players was only because a couple of players had in my mind at the time labelled them as useless, and being one of them I felt it just to comment. But on Legate's and Rikae's clarification, I accepted that I had misunderstood their point, as you pointed out, I accepted the clarifications. This was also the case regarding Legate's comments regarding "throwaway" votes, I was just attacking his view point not defending e_d.

So I don't think it much of a flipflop me maintaining that these folk should be the focus of some suspicion.

...and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean?

:p

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him. This leads back to Legate's comment about my e_d vote being "throwaway", I felt as if he meant he would have preferred me voting for Inzil or Nessa, the two who had garnered so much attention that day.

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote.

I admit, it was a bit of a backtrack but only in so far as to point out to her I wasn't presuming she didn't read a single post in the game and just voted.

~~

So, I would say i'm not flipflopping. Just defending a certain strategy while drawing attention to it (because it can be successful).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Compelled to respond now :p



Well I know what role I play in our incarceration. I needed like others have needed from me, "more to go on", therefore I asked them to have a say. I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players- knowing I myself could be counted among them.

So you were drawing attention to the fact that you were drawing attention to the fact that you could be counted as 'suspicious', which is supposed to in fact make you look more innocent? A wolfish tactic I've used myself. :p


Because I anticipated being asked and being judged on my vote as has happened to others so far.

Regardless of that, it looks to me as if you were looking for a reason to make your vote okay.

~~

In regards to the 'flipflop' comments- my defense of the quiet players was only because a couple of players had in my mind at the time labelled them as useless, and being one of them I felt it just to comment. But on Legate's and Rikae's clarification, I accepted that I had misunderstood their point, as you pointed out, I accepted the clarifications. This was also the case regarding Legate's comments regarding "throwaway" votes, I was just attacking his view point not defending e_d.

So I don't think it much of a flipflop me maintaining that these folk should be the focus of some suspicion.

You don't think going from "quiet players should be looked at and say more", to "quiet players are no more suspicious than loud players", and back again, is a flipflop?


At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him. This leads back to Legate's comment about my e_d vote being "throwaway", I felt as if he meant he would have preferred me voting for Inzil or Nessa, the two who had garnered so much attention that day.

If you held no suspicion over Inzil, the innocent thing to do would have been to try and save him, not throw away your vote where it would do no good to anyone. I fully agree with Legate here - your vote was throwaway.


I admit, it was a bit of a backtrack but only in so far as to point out to her I wasn't presuming she didn't read a single post in the game and just voted.

I'm afraid it looks more as if you're saying "I voted for you but I don't actually find you suspicious".

So, I would say i'm not flipflopping. Just defending a certain strategy while drawing attention to it (because it can be successful).

"Drawing attention" means you want it looked at while you're defending it at the same time. That's, like, the definition of 'flipflopping'.

[Rikae]

Okay, to clarify: I was referring to that earlier post toDay that appeared to be addressed to the seer (though I didn't rightly understand it) and to some earlier mysterious posts (though I don't remember exactly when and where they can be found now). And no, my point wasn't to imply that you couldn't possibly pick up on any seer-hints, my point was that these tricksy, mysterious posts - like I said I seem to remember a few - are innocent-looking, but that I've just started to fear that this is only for show. I'm by no means sure, and at present I'm not really considering voting you.

This was the criticism of Legate I was referring to:

No, this doesn't really make sense in light of your original comment. I wasn't admonishing Legate for drawing attention to anything I said, but for seeking further explanation and suggesting I was not on the village's side if I didn't give it... or at least that's how I interpreted:
because if you are on the village's side, I cannot see why you don't speak plainer

[Pitchwife]

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning
You call that "a little skirmishing", when I've been your constant top suspect (whom you, for some strange reason, never voted) for three Days, together with Boro, whom you only started to suspect because he defended me too much? And I'm beginning to look better all of a sudden exactly why?

That aside, I have to agree that we should all rethink our suspicions/look at people we've hitherto neglected. I've felt pretty good about Boro and skip for quite a while, and kind of undecided/leaning positive about Legate; some of this is based on early impressions I haven't really reexamined, so I should have a fresh look at them, but it would need some pretty blatant signs of wolvery for me to vote any of them in good conscience.

EDIT: x-ed from #503.

[wilwarin538]

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer. :p

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

Brilliant, we should totally do this. :p

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

What the heck is happening here? Is this supposed to be sounding like a joke (like you actually do not intend to vote for those people), or am I just taking the tone wrong? Are you implying that we should not at all talk about who we want to vote for? Because that kind of makes the Day a bit empty, what else are we to talk about other than who we want to vote for? I don't get this exchange, I must be missing something.

[skip spence]

Okay then, will have a look at Greenie, then Mac, and if there's time, Agan.

I suggest that someone also considers a fresh look at Shasta, Legate, Boro and Wilwa. I'm sure I've forgotten about someone too...

[Rikae]

Hmmm.

I am reconsidering my suspects at the moment anyway, Wilwa,but for myself, I was thinking of voting one of those people, barring new information, and I was also (even more so) interested in what others would think of those choices.

Ah well, anyway... back to the drawing board.

[A Little Green]

Someone (was it Legate?) said that Pitch looks better after his first post toDay. I disagree. I haven't been suspecting Pitch almost at all, but that post makes me wonder if I should.Ouch. That lynch yesterDay was ein Griff ins Klo, as we say in German (roughly 'grabbed from the loo', in the sense that you get a handful of - well, you know what). Poor Zil, that was a nasty set-up by the wolves.

So far, I'm afraid we've made the wolves' job pretty easy, and our numbers are dwindling rapidly. Our big assets are that our two remaining gifteds are still alive, so there's still hope.The tone of this doesn't strike me as genuine at all.
As to Rikae's mysterious #467 and the speculations about it - I think I see what she's driving at (or let's say I have a hypothesis), and if I'm right, I'd much rather nobody had mentioned it, least of all said "It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf" (skip! Really?).And this, in the end of the same post, pinged all the radars I have. "I don't want attention drawn to this topic, but here I am talking about it!" does not strike me as sound logic - actually a lot like a cobbler doing his best to make the wolves spot something he did.


EDIT: x.ed with Wilwa, Skip and Rikae

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Once again a note about Mänwe, seeing what he posted now... and Shasta, if you are innocent, I would suggest you try to think about it too... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it. No, I am definitely not voting him toDay.

[A Little Green]

I might consider voting Skip, Pitch or Cailín - probably not Cailín toDay though if she's not around. I could be persuaded to try Mac, Rikae or Shasta, but not before I've taken a better look at them.

[Pitchwife]

And this, in the end of the same post, pinged all the radars I have. "I don't want attention drawn to this topic, but here I am talking about it!" does not strike me as sound logic - actually a lot like a cobbler doing his best to make the wolves spot something he did.
I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

[A Little Green]

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.I'm not sure I get everything you're saying here, I'm not at all into hints and ploys and such in any case. No, you don't need to tell me what you thought it was about.

[Macalaure]

That's hardly the point. You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.Since Inzil was innocent, I think I can do that! And even without knowing Nessa's role for certain, I find it very suspicious how a lot of people treated them as if they were one person.

I didn't give any points to people who just stayed away (in fact, that's a flaw in the system), but gave positive points who "publicly renounced" it.

Once again: The usual suspects Nessa and Inzil did look very likely to get lynched from early on (as far I can remember anyway), True, but a significant deal of suspicious behaviour occurred after my vote.

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime. :p


I noticed that you're accusing me plentifully, but haven't commented on even one item I had against you in the analysis. I will gladly spell it out again if you'd like. ;)


Speaking of Zil, sadly there's not as much to learn from knowing his role as I hoped there would, now I think it over with a clearer mind. OK, we know that the vote that saved Nessa on Day 2 wasn't made by a packmate, but we still don't know whether he was swayed by an innocent or evil Nessa. This sounds like a cop-out to me.

You call that "a little skirmishing"In the sense that you didn't suspect me back very much.

together with Boro, whom you only started to suspect because he defended me too much?That was only one of the reasons.

And I'm beginning to look better all of a sudden exactly why?Because you didn't turn out as evil based on my analysis than I thought you would. Don't you consider yourself off the hook. ;)

[Rikae]

I didn't give any points to people who just stayed away (in fact, that's a flaw in the system), but gave positive points who "publicly renounced" it.


Publicly renouncing a bandwagon against two innocents (if that's what they were) is plenty wolfy.

[Rikae]

And I say that in spite of having done it myself, actually.

[wilwarin538]

I hate to do this, but a girl from work who tends to call in sick at the worst times (and who thankfully won't be working for us much longer) has called in sick again, and I have to go to work. Right now. :(

So I need to vote, and it'll be a bit random, and I'm dreadfully sorry:

++elronds_daughter

Good luck today!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping. ;)

[skip spence]

A Little Green:

Day 1:
Greenie start out with a little bickering with Agan, suggests she might be a cobbler or worse.

She thinks Pitch looks like he always does (he was suspected at this time), that Nessa's defence of him was odd, and goes back-and-forth about Rikae for withdrawing her suspicion on Pitchie.

No vote

Day 2:
Explains her no-vote: she had computer-problems. She goes on to bicker some more with Agan (harmless stuff really), shares a moment with Shasta, excuses herself for low participation and makes a list. Her only real suspect is Inzil.
Inziladun - Leaning bad - he's always driving me nuts because I can't read him at all, but though Lommy's point is almost too easy it makes sense. Three minutes is an awfully short time to read who died and figure all that out.

Then she is helpful in summing up the votes that far and votes Inzil without any further explanation.

Day 3:
Quoting this in it's entirety:
Inzil looks bad. I don't know if the wolves would really take so much pains to frame a single innocent. To state the obvious, he is either

a) a misguided innocent who honestly made a mistake at the end of yesterDay. Possible, I suppose. However, the timing of his vote is as last minute as can be, it looks calculated. The resigned attitude toDay doesn't look innocent to me, either. We need to catch a wolf, and if he is innocent he should speak out for himself so we don't make the wrong choice.

b) a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered. It would have been a pretty extreme move for a wolf though, since in saving one wolf he would have two of them highly suspected the next Day. Is the two kills per Night advantage that important to them? Or do we have an insanely bold pack who decided to sacrifice half of them to cause havoc and let the other half slip by unnoticed? No, it wouldn't make sense unless Inzil believed himself already seer-dreamed, but the Night's kills speak against that - neither Valier nor Lommy seemed like Seers who had dreamed Inzilwolf. Or was he just otherwise certain he and Nessa were going to be suspected the next Day anyway?

c) a cobbler. This is actually beginning to look like the most sensible option to me. A cobbler would be ready to make a drastic move to save a believed wolf from the gallows - or even, come to think of it, an innocent, thus misleading the village royally. His "kill me if you like, but you're wasting your time" -attitude looks quite cobblerish, too. If I have the time I might go through Inzil's early posts to see if there is anything resembling a cobbler hint. His previous behaviour struck me more wolvish than cobblerish though.

Gah. Enough about Inzil, there are sixteen other people to look at. Well, fifteen. For example, I haven't seen any talk at all about the Lottie-wagon. What, exactly, were the arguments for lynching her?

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)
I'm not fond of Legate's tone here. The first paragraph is pessimistic, which is doubtlessly how the wolves want us to feel. The second is the classic wishy-washy Legate, he pretty much says that everyone could be a wolf actually, without being definite about anyone. And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!
Greenie then goes on to criticize Legate (agreeing with Cailin who made the same point) for his friends-don't-kill-friends argument. Legate has been going on about how the wolves probably aren't Agan or Greenie, because they wouldn't have Night-killed Ozban or Kath who are their friends and who haven't played for a while. I agree with Greenie and Cailin that this is a dodgy point especially since it also seems to conveniently clear himself. And I don't think RL-considerations would stop Agan or Greenie (or Legate for that matter), were they wolves and deemed it the best alternative. I should hope not anyway. It's even possible someone (Legate?) is trying to hide behind it.

Then she makes another list (after criticizing Legate again for his assumptions regarding the kills). Her suspects:
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.
She later softens her stance on Legate, says he makes more sense now.

Goes on to vote for Inzil without further explanation after another little episode with Agan.

Comments:
In the light of Inzil's innocence Greenie's two votes for him looks bad, and her reasons aren't that good either. However, Innocents have voted Inzil obviously, and without a wolf down it is really hard to find a solid reason against anyone bar a bad slip. I find her bickering with Agan somewhat disturbing. Could they perhaps be fellows, making an early scene when then accuse each other. Plausible certainly, but then again, they are of course good real-life friends who enjoy each other's company and that is maybe a more probable explanation for the exchanges.

Has been very careful not to put herself in the spotlight which often is a bad sign. Then again, she says she has little time.

Seems more active toDay though and looks sharp. Gawd, this is also going to sound wishy-washy, but I really have no clue. If she is a wolf, her poker-face is commendable. But no, I don't think I'll be voting Greenie (though I would to save myself).

[Pitchwife]

I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping. ;)
Duh, of course you didn't, I meant skip. No idea why you crossed my mind at that moment. Maybe I was reading one of your analyses with the other eye.

[A Little Green]

Has been very careful not to put herself in the spotlight which often is a bad sign. Then again, she says she has little time.

Seems more active toDay though and looks sharp. Gawd, this is also going to sound wishy-washy, but I really have no clue. If she is a wolf, her poker-face is commendable. But no, I don't think I'll be voting Greenie (though I would to save myself).Yes, I had time issues especially during the weekend, today I've finally got the chance to participate as much as I like to.

I'm not sure about that last sentence there, or mainly the addition in brackets. It's a weird thing to say - I would think it's pretty much obvious you are willing to vote me (or basically anyone) to save yourself, I'm not sure why you felt the need to mention it. Especially in context of the analysis of someone who doesn't look like a very likely lynch candidate at the moment.


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch

[Macalaure]

(no quote tags, to save space)

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. ~ Skip

That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? ~ Boro

Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa. ~ Shasta

The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa ~ Agan

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow ~ Shasta

I agree that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction and I am unhappy to see they have the focus of so much debate toDay. It might be best, as Boromir88, Shasta and others have said, to get them out of the way. ~ Cailín

I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head. ~ Boro


This bad reasoning in unison is really getting me. The fact that our presumed cobbler is joining into it prominently should make that clear if nothing else does.

[skip spence]

I noticed that you're accusing me plentifully, but haven't commented on even one item I had against you in the analysis. I will gladly spell it out again if you'd like.
Don't mind if you do, actually.

I would think it's pretty much obvious you are willing to vote me (or basically anyone) to save yourself, I'm not sure why you felt the need to mention it. Especially in context of the analysis of someone who doesn't look like a very likely lynch candidate at the moment.
To be honest, I think I might have been influenced by a similar sentence that Inzil wrote and that I just re-read. It would seem stupid to copy Inzil's style though :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

That ain't wolfin'.

That's the way you do it
get your lynches for nothing, double kills for free.

No, that ain't wolfin'
That's the way you do it!
Lemme tell ya, this pack ain't dumb
maybe come under a little vague suspicion
maybe throw a cobbler under the bus.

We got to analyze wolfy ordos
look suspicious with trickereeeey
we've got to choose 'tween
under the raders
we got to read these submariiiiiines.

I should'a got a PM from the mod
I should'a learned to make them shoes
look at these baddies, decimating villagers, man
wish I could be one.

I want my...
I want my...
I want my victory.
No that ain't wolfin'...

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, there seems to be quite a bit of analysis going on toDay, eh? I'll have to vote now, though, as I'll probably not be able to at DL. And even though I haven't heard everything that will come about, I have heard enough to make my decision.

++Legate

Because what he says sounds disturbingly wolvish, if you look at it from that perspective.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

This bad reasoning in unison is really getting me. The fact that our presumed cobbler is joining into it prominently should make that clear if nothing else does.

A side remark - this is nothing about agreeing or disagreeing with conclusions you make, but what makes you think that the Cobbler would anyway know any better than the rest of us innocents whether he should or should not suspect Nessa and Inzil? How should he know that he can safely accuse Inzil, if such a huge part of the village (unless they all were wolves, but that is even numerically impossible), didn't know it?

EDIT: x-ed with skip, Rikae and Nessa. "From that perspective" - from what perspective? If you think I am sounding Wolvish then of course I do, what's that supposed to mean? If you are innocent, I would ask you to try to gather some reason...

[A Little Green]

Because what he says sounds disturbingly wolvish, if you look at it from that perspective.The problem with that reasoning is that everything is disturbingly wolvish if you read it with the assumption that it is.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And Rikae, what is this Mark Wolfler Revival supposed to mean, or do you have too much of your frustration already? Or have I been right when I was thinking that your secret and mysterious hints were actually meant for the Wolves?

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta

[Aganzir]

Sorry it took me way too long. Blame Lommy, she was posting pictures on Facebook.

Well, maybe they thought he won't be going, or did not know, or did not care so much for lynching the Cobbler.
I don't think your reasoning is very sound. Boro's being the cobbler isn't a proof that Mac & Rikae are innocent, but it certainly doesn't make their guilt more likely unlike you claimed.

You didn't say you are a Wolf, you said that you are innocent because you wouldn't kill Ozban. And that's what I think, so I said yes, that's one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you (among several others, of course).
No I didn't. You said you couldn't see good enough a reason for me to kill Oz on night 1, and I answered that the unlikeliness of it would have been a good reason for me to do it. But never mind, I was just wondering for a while if you were trying to drop a hint. :p

But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo.
Me neither, but I seem to remember him being exactly like that as the cobbler. Making long posts that basically say nothing.

We can't totally assume the Wolves know their Cobbler (and hope that they don't).
True but it's safer to assume they know her.

I'm torn about wilwa. She looks pretty innocent and arguments in an innocent way, but that doesn't mean she's innocent. I think she's one of those people who just have an innocent mindset whatever her role... Last time I played she was my cobbler, and we considered killing her almost every night because she just looked so darn innocent (fortunately we didn't).

I'm more concerned about skip again. He just feels way way off.

After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf.
Why would a wolf gloat when they still haven't got a gifted?

because what you said could have been a hint to a cobbler for all I know.
A wolf doesn't need to hint to the cobbler at this point, especially if the wolf is Rikae (or someone else who can prioritize things correctly).

Shasta's analysis of Mänwe looks reasonable but it's also very easy to cast suspicion on a quiet player.

I know I'm flip-flopping (and will probably continue to do so till she's dead) but I feel considerably better about Rikae now that people are questioning her activities.

You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.
I see the logic in that even though it's likely not all the wolves took part in it. If Nessa is innocent (and I'm inclined to think so at the moment, at least enough to not vote for her today) it would be very convenient for the wolves to get the two of them lynched, therefore at least a couple of them were probably pushing it.

Because if you vote for the cobbler and not an ordo, there is no vindictive innocent to deal with the next Day?
Mac had been suspected so little that being part of a bandwagon against an innocent would hardly have got him lynched yet.

Like Eomer said yesterDay, chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.
I can't believe I'm getting into this discussion (it's entirely different to suggest the seer come out than tell her who to dream of) but I wouldn't bother to dream of Nessa right now - basically everyone has talked about her, while there are still a lot of submarines.

I wouldn't vote for Boro today just because I find it more likely he's the cobbler.

I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players
To be fair I think we all know that already, but now it's a too late to lynch the quiet just to be on the safe side. It would be very convenient for a wolf to try to make us do exactly that, though.

Because that day I didn't consider him a wolf.
And have things changed?

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him.
How did you know that? It was pretty even between Nessa and him till the end.

I really don't like skip's Greenie analysis - I'm not convinced of Greenie's innocence either, but it looks nastily opportunistic even though he says he won't vote for her today.

I should'a got a PM from the mod
I should'a learned to make them shoes
look at these baddies, decimating villagers, man
wish I could be one.
Seconded. Rikae when will we be wolves together?

I feel like voting Pitch or skip today. Not Boro (if we kill a wolf today, we can lynch him tomorrow). I could imagine myself going for Cailín, Shasta, ed and Mänwe... but rather one of the first two.

[A Little Green]

While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all.I can relate.


EDIT: wow, x-ed with Legate and Agan's novel.

[Aganzir]

Because what he says sounds disturbingly wolvish, if you look at it from that perspective.
I'd like you to elaborate on that tomorrow. Yes Legate is silly at times, but I think there are arguments that speak for his innocence.

what makes you think that the Cobbler would anyway know any better than the rest of us innocents whether he should or should not suspect Nessa and Inzil?
If you want, I can make you a list of ways the wolves can tell the cobbler who they are. Or Mac can. :p

The problem with that reasoning is that everything is disturbingly wolvish if you read it with the assumption that it is.
Seconded.

While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all.
Me neither, but in spite of it we shouldn't lynch her today.

[Macalaure]

A side remark - this is nothing about agreeing or disagreeing with conclusions you make, but what makes you think that the Cobbler would anyway know any better than the rest of us innocents whether he should or should not suspect Nessa and Inzil?

Boro is a smart person, so he would undoubtedly have reached the same conclusions as I. ;) (and then acted according to his role)

More seriously: If we assume that the cobbler has some decent idea who the wolves are, he could have assumed with high probability (from the suspected wolves' behaviour) that both Inzil and Nessa were/are innocent.


Everyone: Don't forget that five evil votes are against us toDay. There have been villages in the past where the baddies shrewdly took advantage of this. We should make up our minds who to vote for carefully and not spread it too much.

My preferences:
Tier I: Skip
Tier II: Shasta or Cailín
Tier III: Pitch
Tier IV and higher: there are some here I still suspect, but I'd really rather not go there toDay.

[Macalaure]

Maybe I'm suffering from the mentioned desire of wanting to see suspicious behaviour by a suspect, but Shasta's case of Mänwe looks like he's pushing for another silent scapegoat now that Nessa is falling out of favour at last, and his case of Cailín like some mild wolf-on-wolfing.

[skip spence]

Yes Nessa must really love to puzzle us :rolleyes:


I really don't like skip's Greenie analysis - I'm not convinced of Greenie's innocence either, but it looks nastily opportunistic even though he says he won't vote for her today.
Don't know what you mean. I'm not convinced of anyone's innocence (including yours) but my verdict is basically "no idea" and "won't vote for her". What is it that looks opportunistic?

[Aganzir]

Everyone: Don't forget that five evil votes are against us toDay. There have been villages in the past where the baddies shrewdly took advantage of this. We should make up our minds who to vote for carefully and not spread it too much.
Exactly. There are still 14 of us, 5-9, so we could be worse off - and everybody except Rikae still have their retraction.

My preferences:
Tier I: Skip
Tier II: Shasta or Cailín
Tier III: Pitch
I want to take a look at Shasta. Will do it now, assuming I have the time (you know how I am).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Maybe I'm suffering from the mentioned desire of wanting to see suspicious behaviour by a suspect, but Shasta's case of Mänwe looks like he's pushing for another silent scapegoat now that Nessa is falling out of favour at last, and his case of Cailín like some mild wolf-on-wolfing.

To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now.

[Aganzir]

Maybe I'm suffering from the mentioned desire of wanting to see suspicious behaviour by a suspect, but Shasta's case of Mänwe looks like he's pushing for another silent scapegoat now that Nessa is falling out of favour at last, and his case of Cailín like some mild wolf-on-wolfing.
Well I wasn't suspicious of Shasta per se (it was more like, "he's been slipping under my radar but his being a wolf would fit the picture nicely") but that's exactly what I thought when I saw his cases.

Also, if Mac turns out to be a wolf, I'm going to start to vote consistently for the player I find the most innocent-looking.

Don't know what you mean. I'm not convinced of anyone's innocence (including yours) but my verdict is basically "no idea" and "won't vote for her". What is it that looks opportunistic?
Something about the tone: it struck me as if you were trying to phrase things so that they would sound bad. But now I went and read it again and it actually reminds me of my way of analysing people (in the sense that you don't just sum up what the analysed has said but consider what their actions might mean and stuff) and now I don't know anymore. Skip you drive me mad!

edit: xed with Shasta. Sorry. :D

[Pitchwife]

Just something I noticed during a quick reread:

I must say, in one way I really really dislike the fact that Nessa was almost lynched for like, what, three consecutive days. On the other hand, perhaps if she is a Wolf, she deserves the title of the "survivalist" and a credit for that.
So you "really really dislike" the fact that you gave her the last vote on two of these Days? Which do you dislike, the votes or the fact that she only was almost lynched? Please clarify.
And if Nessa's a wolf, she's not a survivalist, she has a deathwish. Three Nightkills pointing to her, and hardly an attempt to defend or save herself? Come on.

[Aganzir]

And if Nessa's a wolf, she's not a survivalist, she has a deathwish. Three Nightkills pointing to her, and hardly an attempt to defend or save herself? Come on.
:D Pitch you're hilarious (but that's true).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

No I didn't. You said you couldn't see good enough a reason for me to kill Oz on night 1, and I answered that the unlikeliness of it would have been a good reason for me to do it. But never mind, I was just wondering for a while if you were trying to drop a hint. :p
Ah, now I see, I misread it. Okay, whatever. Just hope you haven't been LOOKING for a hint... ;)

My preferences:
Tier I: Skip
Tier II: Shasta or Cailín
Tier III: Pitch
Tier IV and higher: there are some here I still suspect, but I'd really rather not go there toDay.

Now the more I am looking at this, even though I dislike being "unsporty", won't people really like to vote for Cailín? As it mostly looks like the best if I look at my suspects, considering Greenie and Agan also mentioned considering voting her, if I am not mistaken...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ah, now I see, I misread it. Okay, whatever. Just hope you haven't been LOOKING for a hint... ;)



Now the more I am looking at this, even though I dislike being "unsporty", won't people really like to vote for Cailín? As it mostly looks like the best if I look at my suspects, considering Greenie and Agan also mentioned considering voting her, if I am not mistaken...

Honestly, I think more people have said Skip looks like a better choice.

[Boromir88]

Boro, since you think lynching Nessa toDay is so important, can you give us your reasons?

I think it's obvious enough from the kills.

[Rikae]

All I've got to say is if Wolfy McWolfypants has no better suspects for cobbler at this point than me with my silly song, it's not for lack of trying by other would-be shoemakers. :rolleyes:

Legate's completely illogical, passively worded suspicions against me are just about enough to earn him my vote.

[Rikae]

I think it's obvious enough from the kills.

After Inzil? An Inzilwolf would have had more reason to think someone was on to him than Nessa would have.

[Aganzir]

Just hope you haven't been LOOKING for a hint...
Ah but I have. I kept wishing the wolves would try and hint to me because of my day 1 behaviour, but that was pretty much impossible because I didn't have the necessary information.

Now the more I am looking at this, even though I dislike being "unsporty", won't people really like to vote for Cailín?
I don't particularly suspect her, it's more like "I don't think these people are wolves, ergo the wolves have to be some of these, Cailín is slipping under my radar hmm..."

So if Cailín is a wolf Shasta is too, and if skip is, so is Legate? :p

[Boromir88]

Also, if Mac turns out to be a wolf, I'm going to start to vote consistently for the player I find the most innocent-looking.


You and me both.

And with that, I'm completely caught up. Nice to see I've been stamped, labeled, and filed away. This is for posterity, so be honest, is anyone going to listen to me at this point or should I just slide on into the background and make a vote?

[A Little Green]

I'm slightly worried about getting too paranoid. As in, someone sharing my suspicion instantly makes me feel better about the suspected person, and worse about the one who agrees with me. Gah. I'm having second thoughts on Nessa but I agree that we shouldn't vote for her toDay.

Actually. I went through the votes once again, with a hypothetical assumption that Nessa is a wolf, to see if any patterns came up. (Nessa was an easy one to begin with, since she has been suspected a lot and been in danger of being lynched thrice, so any connections with other players are more likely to show up.) What I concluded was this: If Nessa is a wolf, Rikae is one too (or else a cobbler), and vice versa. Rikae's strange retraction on Day 2 from Lottie to Inzil (both innocent, both promising lynch candidates) would make perfect sense if she was trying to save Nessa. At the time of Rikae's first vote, Nessa was on the lead and Lottie looked like the most likely runner-up for the lynch. Then Lommy gave Inzil a second vote, and Rikae switches to Inzil, bringing him to a tie with Nessa. Nessa's suspicion of Rikae and voting for her twice doesn't necessarily speak against this as Rikae was suspected by virtually no one else and faced no danger of being lynched.

However, we can't conclude anything until one of them is proven innocent or guilty. Hmm, I think I'll go have another look at the votes, to see if other connetions like this come up.


EDIT: Ouch, x-ed since Mac's 537. (Also, I almost typed "lynched since...")

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So you "really really dislike" the fact that you gave her the last vote on two of these Days? Which do you dislike, the votes or the fact that she only was almost lynched? Please clarify.

I dislike the fact that she managed to "save herself" (well, not herself, but simply, escaped her fate) for three Days. And by "dislike" I mean like "that happens only in movies!" (And speaking of that, my voting for her was by elimination method from those who were already running for the lynch.)
And yes, she is a survivalist - we have made her so.
Anyway, for me she is not the issue right now anymore.

[Aganzir]

And with that, I'm completely caught up. Nice to see I've been stamped, labeled, and filed away. This is for posterity, so be honest, is anyone going to listen to me at this point or should I just slide on into the background and make a vote?
Seriously Boro I don't think you can blame anyone but yourself. You know what you've been doing.
And go on and speak, I at least am going to listen to you if you turn out innocent. :p

[Pitchwife]

To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently.
I know exactly what you mean.

And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now.
Well, no, that isn't suspicious. But it's remarkable that both your analyses lead to a negative conclusion on the analysee (Mänwe's more than Cailíns), which makes me wonder whether the conclusion wasn't reached beforehand and the analysis made to fit. Truth to be told, that reminds me of the Shastawolf I've seen in a few games. Not exactly happy memories.

[Rikae]

It's going to be amusing if Nessa does turn out to be a wolf and I get lynched because of it. Greenie's reasoning makes perfect sense and makes her look more innocent in my eyes because of it, and is totally wrong. ;) I was paying no attention to Nessa, and switched to Inzil because I saw a chance to lynch what, in his last post, looked even more like a wolf.

[A Little Green]

Ah but I have. I kept wishing the wolves would try and hint to me because of my day 1 behaviour, but that was pretty much impossible because I didn't have the necessary information.What information?

Also, don't play the martyr Boro, convince us that we are mistaken about you if that is the case. For myself, I'm having second thoughts on the identity of the cobbler as well..


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae

[Pitchwife]

Now the more I am looking at this, even though I dislike being "unsporty", won't people really like to vote for Cailín?
Yes (I won't really like it). There can be good reasons to vote somebody who's not coming back that Day but has posted, but somebody we know can't get online at all that Day? No.

[A Little Green]

Yes (I won't really like it). There can be good reasons to vote somebody who's not coming back that Day but has posted, but somebody we know can't get online at all that Day? No.I agree. Even if Cailín is a wolf, she will have three fellows we can go after.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Honestly, I think more people have said Skip looks like a better choice.
But I don't want to vote him.

Legate's completely illogical, passively worded suspicions against me are just about enough to earn him my vote.
I am not suspecting you, I am wondering what the Angband are you doing.

[Aganzir]

What information?
The names the cobbler had sent to the wolves.

[Pitchwife]

And with that, I'm completely caught up. Nice to see I've been stamped, labeled, and filed away. This is for posterity, so be honest, is anyone going to listen to me at this point or should I just slide on into the background and make a vote?
If you're innocent, speak. I won't vote you toDay without having heard you (and I may very well not after that); promise.

[Aganzir]

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate

Left: ed, Mac, Shasta, Pitch, Rikae, Boro, Green, skip, Mänwe, Legate, Agan, Cailín?

Okay I'm not voting for Cailín today. I have nothing against her other than a feeling. So for me it's probably either skip or Pitch, or Shasta (depending on how my analysis turns out... I might just not finish it today though.)

[A Little Green]

A random observation: Mac hasn't been talked about a whole lot during the game, yet now he suddenly is, and in two (or three) separate camps. Pitch and Shasta complain that if you're suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without looking suspicious, and Skip calls Mac a wolf. At the same time, Agan and Boro pretty much say he's the most innocent-looking person around.


EDIT: x-ed with a host

[Aganzir]

Pitch how about we didn't vote for Boro today even if he doesn't speak? We need to get a wolf and it's improbable he's one.

edit: xed with Greenie. I've actually said so pretty much since day 2. :p

[A Little Green]

The names the cobbler had sent to the wolves.Ah. True.

[Mänwe]

To be fair I think we all know that already, but now it's a too late to lynch the quiet just to be on the safe side. It would be very convenient for a wolf to try to make us do exactly that, though.

Yes, but no seemed to pay much attention to them vote wise on the first day when I made that post (my first post).


And have things changed?

No


How did you know that? It was pretty even between Nessa and him till the end.

It was 5 votes to 2 against Inzil when I voted, prior comments led me to believe people were on the Inzilwagon.

[skip spence]

Okay, right this moment I'd consider voting:

Nessa (who I still think might be a wolf)
Mac (though I'm afraid I've taken his attack on me personally and that this clouds my judgement)
elrond's_daughter or Mänwe (I'd hate to lose to a submarine and I think at least one of them is a wolf)
Possibly:
Shasta (very smooth customer though I've not had enough of a look at him to feel remotely confident)
Cailin (too bad she isn't here though)
Legate (though I'd rather not)

[Macalaure]

To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now.Sometimes, yes, but only once I really made up my mind, which is not wholly the case with you. I mean, I did say that I might be wrong. ;)

I know exactly what you mean.Pardon? I mentioned plenty of things that were innocent-looking about you. Being more or less consistent in one's suspicions is suspicious nowadays?


No Cailín, alright. Preference now (in order): Skip, Pitch, Shasta.

[elronds_daughter]

Right. I'm trying to read through everything, but it seems I've missed more toDay than I have other days. Hopefully I'll be able to digest enough in the next half-hour.

[Pitchwife]

Pitch how about we didn't vote for Boro today even if he doesn't speak?
If he's indeed the cobbler, lynching him toDay is not the best idea anyway, and I just have that gut feeling he's innocent after all.

As for others, I starting to see how Legate could seem shady to some people, I'm flipflopping about skip, and I'm starting to find Shasta more and more creepy.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Wishy-washy comments on Rikae & Pitch. He thinks Mac, Kit and I look good as we're logical and down to earth, and is bothered about having no read on sally. Later he says he still likes Mac but thinks he makes too big a deal about my cobbler post, saying he might think so because he's wolfed with me and knows how my mind works. He's probably right, but it would also have been in a wolf's interests to keep me alive then. He likes Legate for pointing out that Lottie is being weird (ie. she doesn't have suspicions which is entirely atypical of her). Shasta did it occur to you that Lottie might have been the seer who didn't want to leave any trails towards an innocent? He votes for Lottie, putting her in the lead (however there are still a lot of votes to come).

DAY 2
He starts with saying Legate seems off and he doesn't like his "Inzil is suspicious but I don't really suspect him," and wonders if wilwa is trying to deflect attention from the sallywagon, agreeing with Rikae who wonders about her. He suggests the sallywagon couldn't be purely innocent-driven because it started so late - this is a bad point. He suspects Boro's defense of Pitch is merely damage control. If Boro is the cobbler, would a Shastawolf have said so? Not unless Pitch is innocent, I think.
He quotes Lommy who pointed out Inzil's quickly drawing a connection between the kills and asks if it can be so simple, and questions Cailín of her Nessa suspicion. Doesn't believe skip's hunter claim, says he was just looking for an epic 1000th post. Brings up the possibility of Kitanna's role being redistributed. I don't think a wolf would suggest that even to look better or be sporty.

Okay I'm about midway through day 2 but I'd rather post this now. I'll continue tomorrow if we both are still alive.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I will most probably vote Shasta. At least given how people seem to be inclined to vote. El ron hubbard would be a remote possibility, Mac in some very distant brackets, only if I had to choose. But no, I'd prefer Shasta.

[Aganzir]

Now I'm having second thoughts about Legate too. I've kind of forgotten about ed in lack of material (this is why I think submarines should be lynched first) but if she's innocent, she's a very easy lynch.

Hmm.

Argh.

[skip spence]

So Mac, you said you'd spell out why you find me so suspicious.

Why don't you?
(second time I ask now)

[Aganzir]

If skip is a wolf, would he push for Nessa's lynch when the consensus seems to be the wolves are just trying to frame her?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I will most probably vote Shasta. At least given how people seem to be inclined to vote. El ron hubbard would be a remote possibility, Mac in some very distant brackets, only if I had to choose. But no, I'd prefer Shasta.

That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all. :(

[A Little Green]

Mac is either innocent or seriously creepy. Wait, no news? Ah well. :rolleyes:

I'll probably vote for Skip or Pitch toDay. Shasta is a possibility as well but I don't want to vote for him until I've had a closer look - which I don't have time for anymore. Rikae is creepy but I'm leaning innocent on her at the moment anyway.

I definitely don't want to vote for Cailín (though she is a very possible wolf in my opinion), Agan, Boro (hats off if he's a wolf), Nessa (even though I'm kind of suspecting her again) or Legate. I have no idea about Manwe or Elra, might be wolves but I'd prefer something more solid toDay since we really need to get it right this time.


EDIT: x-ed since Elra

[Rikae]

Legate, you were wondering in such a way that it seemed you wanted me to be suspected.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, Pitch - "more and more creepy"? You need to explain yourself, considering that the last time you mentioned me you were agreeing with me about Mac.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all. :(

Well, I know. But I think you are a Wolf. If not, we can talk about it post-game and I can apologise to you, there probably is not much more.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I know. But I think you are a Wolf.

Why?

[Aganzir]

Okay we need to get started because there are at least two wolves, probably more, who haven't voted yet.

++Pitchwife

In the end I think skip looks a bit better. Even though he looks wolfy, he seems to be relaxed in an "I don't have to worry about my fellows" sort of way, while Pitch has been more tense.

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate
Agan - Pitch

Left: ed, Mac, Shasta, Pitch, Rikae, Boro, Green, skip, Mänwe, Legate, Cailín?

I haven't used my retraction and will do so if things seem to go badly, but I'd rather not because it might be needed more tomorrow.

[A Little Green]

If skip is a wolf, would he push for Nessa's lynch when the consensus seems to be the wolves are just trying to frame her?I can't see why not. Quite a few people seem to have doubts about Nessa - and even if Nessa doesn't actually end up lynched, or even if she does, I can't see any particular harm for a Skipwolf in doing that. As in, you yourself seem to find him more innocent because of that.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta and Agan. My lions! <3

[Aganzir]

I can't see why not. Quite a few people seem to have doubts about Nessa - and even if Nessa doesn't actually end up lynched, or even if she does, I can't see any particular harm for a Skipwolf in doing that. As in, you yourself seem to find him more innocent because of that.
Not exactly, it doesn't really sway me either way. I'm just wondering.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate, you were wondering in such a way that it seemed you wanted me to be suspected.

No, I was asking, but the problem with you is that you never answer. If you said "I am just singing out my frustration", as I have even asked if you do, it would've been okay with me. But if you drop some mysterious sentence or song or something (a song where you put yourself as the singer into the perspective of a Cobbler, obviously) and then just leave it be, it just makes me wonder if there is not something going on which I have not noticed.

EDIT: I keep x-ing since my last all the time now.

[elronds_daughter]

Quick summary of feelings:

My opinion on Pitch has not changed, and I may vote him today.

Opinion on Mac hasn't changed either.

I think Shasta's okay, despite all the suspicion.

Nessa is worrisome.

So is skip. I think if I don't vote Pitch, I'll vote skip.

Not sure about pretty much everyone else. Including Boro. Though I can see where everyone's coming from with finding him a bit off.

[Pitchwife]

LRon Hubbard? No, I don't think so (although I suspected her early), she sounds genuine to me. Of course, if she's a wolf she doesn't really deserve to win and all that, but let's worry about that toMorrow or after that.

Shasta, if you've read the second part of that post, I don't think I need to explain myself toDay. But if it's any consolation, the sudden unisono against you is no less creepy.

[Aganzir]

Legate: lobster.

[A Little Green]

Pitch? I began having second thoughts the moment I saw Agan's vote - but if she had voted Skip I would probably have felt the same. This is proving fatal to my nerves.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Aganzir]

I have a feeling this is going to end badly regardless of how we vote... :rolleyes:

edit: xed with Greenie. Oh really? I think I know what you mean. :D

[elronds_daughter]

I have a feeling this is going to end badly regardless of how we vote... :rolleyes:

Me too. :(

[A Little Green]

Lobster? Where?

[Boromir88]

As you wish Agan. :D

Treatise on were-wolvery

This matter has troubled this almighty, powerful, exemplar Council of excellency since the dawn of time. This is truly why I thought I was summoned to this great and wise council, not to go gallobantering around, killing fellow council members but looking for werewolves. We know everything there is to know about Werewolves, yet we can't seem to find and kill them. So, now that we are in a dire situation that is the most dire. Let me begin.

There are two forms of werewolfus lupinius. The traditional werewolves of legend. These are humans for approximately 27 days of the month. But the day of the full moon, and the day before, and the day after, these humans transform into hairy, fanged, clawed, and beastly monstrosities called, werewolves. There is also the werewolves of Melkor's creation. Melkor sends evil spirits to inhabit the body of wolves, making them almost like superduper wolves, and really really powerful. The werewolves haunting this council seem to be even more deadly, since they are some strange hybrid of the legendary werewolves and evil spirits in bodies of wolves. Since, these werewolves do not need the full moon to transform, they appear to be able to mutate during the night.

And during the night, their animalistic instincts are incontrollable. They must feed. They must eat and only the blood of humans will satisfy their curse. If you can really say they are truly ever "satisfied." For each night they must always eat, it is never enough. Once they are through with one group of people, they will move on. They always move on, unless we can stop them. So, how do you stop them?

1. Pure Silver. This supposedly works the best, although I've never tried it and I have yet to encounter a werewolf. I have no idea how effective pure silver would work.

2. A vampire bodyguard. Werewolves hate vampires and vice versa. If you have vampire bodyguards the werewolves will most likely leave you alone. Werewolves desire those they call the "hot ones," vampires are "cold ones."

Preferably, 1 + 2 work the best. That is if you have a vampire body guard, who then is equipped with pure silver weapons. This way if the werewolves do dare attack you, your vampire body guards could kill them.

3. Killing the host body.

This option is the most difficult to perform, because it's almost like a blind witch hunt. Those fo us who are not werewolves, do not transform at night, we go to sleep. So, the only way we can kill them (if 1 and 2 are not viable options) is during the Day, when these werewolves are actually back in their human form. It's the most difficult because they leave no trace to their night transformations. It just happens spontaneously each and every night. It's not like we can go into Nessa's room and find wolf hairs all over the bed (although I bet you would). And you can't demand Agan open her mouth to check the size of her fangs. Everyone knows she has large, pointy fangs (and long long claws), anyway.

In fact. Did I ever tell you the time Agan scratched me with her claws? Granted I actually asked her to because I wondered what was a better at scratching, bear claws or Agan's. I think Agan's probably worked out the best, judging solely from memory and how well they scratched the itch on my arm.

Thus this is the conundrum we are in. 4 wolves remaining, 1 person on their side, and I don't know who ever else is left trying to lynch them. Decisions decisions.

I hope this has been a most helpful and beneficial post of my usual standards. I would hate to be a complete obstructionist for this whole council, but we all have a part to play, eh?

Now we get to the topic of Balrog's wings. Since we all know that Balrogs DO have wings. Sir JRR Tolkien tells us this, the question is are they literal or figuritive wings? If literal, are they functional in flight or serve another purpose? The only reason to have wings is for flight. Seriously, penguins and emus should all just not exist because they defy the my laws saying wings are only useful in flight. Sorry, Lommy, but it's true. So, if the Balrog had literal wings he'd have them for flight. However, all Balrogs who have died have fallen from great heights, and been killed by falling from tall places. This means Balrogs obviously can't fly, or they wouldn't just keep falling and killing themselves. In conclusion, Balrogs must have metaphorical wings. Yes? No. No. They have metaphorical wings of shadow. Shadow being the key word. Shadows have no physical presense, they have no aerodynamic ability. Thus wings of shadow are not very useful for flying, but if they were not wings of shadow then the Balrog would be able to fly. And there it is, Balrogs have literal wings of shadow.

++Nessa

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Legate: lobster.

What?

[Aganzir]

Lobster? Where?
Here.

[A Little Green]

Thanks, Boro. Very helpful.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Why?

I have said it several times thoughout toDay scattered throughout different posts, there is not time to write on lengths now, but among what I said, some ways you said some things look fishy, the Mänwelysis and so on might be just looking for a good victim, some votes from you, etc...

Now I am really wondering. It is funny that I am now feeling really the best (read as: the most sure, the most suspecting) about Cailín, but she is not around... I am not really very much sure about those who now seem to be favoured, Pitch has said something recently which made me raise my eyebrows again, but before that when he came here he seemed being fine...

EDIT: xed again since my last

[Aganzir]

Aww sorry everybody, this probably wasn't the best time to poke fun at Legate's frustration! :p

[Boromir88]

I think I cross-posted. :)

[Macalaure]

So Mac, you said you'd spell out why you find me so suspicious.

Rikae's computer is in repair, so we're sharing mine - I didn't get to yet. If you're still alive toMorrow, I will.

Too many people I suspect somewhat are suggesting Shasta, so I'd rather refrain from him.

Since Agan went for Pitch, I will most likely, too.

Legate's post is too big for me to read 10 minutes before deadline. :rolleyes:

(back to Rikae)

(edit: Boro's post, not Legate's - my bad. No harm done, then. :p)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate: lobster.

Okay, have to confess I didn't get that one either. Whatever...

(once again xed with everybody)

[Aganzir]

Thanks Boro. I guess this confirmed my suspicions. Will read it once the day ends. :p

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate
Agan - Pitch
Boro - Nessa

Left: ed, Mac, Shasta, Pitch, Rikae, Green, skip, Mänwe, Legate, Cailín?

[Aganzir]

And if you want your main suspect to die, vote now not at the last minute.

[A Little Green]

I didn't get to yet. If you're still alive toMorrow, I will.Pretty confident you are alive toMorrow, huh?

[skip spence]

Agan is one I actually trust somewhat. Why Pitch? I've completely forgotten about him.

[A Little Green]

Mac or Skip, anyone? Serious second thoughts about Pitch here..

[elronds_daughter]

Okay. Adding to the pot. Really expected more votes by now...

++Pitch

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Thanks Boro. I guess this confirmed my suspicions. Will read it once the day ends. :p

Something like that. So, now having these hectic-before-DL-last-minute second thoughts about Pitch, seeing how people suspected him, but, ai ai. But no, probably I will leave it...

Edit: again xe-d with everybody

[Boromir88]

And if you want your main suspect to die, vote now not at the last minute.

I voted early, see I can be good and helpful.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++skip

To put him up there. I don't really like the Elronhubbard vote or the Legate vote and I don't agree with the Nessa vote today.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, you know what,

++Shasta

EDIT: once again crossposted since my last

[A Little Green]

I think I'm going with

++ Skip

Also, if Shasta is a wolf, I'll eat him for dinner. If I die during the Night, someone have a good look at Mac.


EDIT: bolding, x-ed with Legs

[Aganzir]

In case I'm not alive tomorrow I'd just like to remind you that if one innocent votes wrong, we lose. Yes we have the retractions but they might not be enough.

And the seer and/or the ranger should probably seriously consider coming out tomorrow. The ranger not so much though.

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate
Agan - Pitch
Boro - Nessa
ed - Pitch 2
Shasta - skip
Legate - Shasta
Green - skip 2

Left: Mac, Pitch, Rikae, skip, Mänwe, Cailín?

[Macalaure]

And now the votes are all over the place...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

For that matter, right now with the last-minute-second-thoughts I don't feel that bad about Pitch being lynched, but... well, toMorrow will show us.

Anyway, unless something drastic happens, if I am not alive toMorrow, I suggest really focusing on Cailín, folks.

EDIT: xed since my last, horrible indeed (the votes).

[Aganzir]

This is going to end badly.

[Mänwe]

Maintain the vote from yesterday.

++elronds_daughter

[Aganzir]

I wonder if I should retract and vote for skip... I don't really want any of the others to die.

[Pitchwife]

Aaaargh damn it.

++skip

[A Little Green]

Legate's post could have been written by me. Agan, cut the pessimism, we'll know in a minute. Well, two.

[Macalaure]

Shasta voting Skip is the tie-breaker between Skip and Pitch for me.

++Pitchwife

[Aganzir]

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate
Agan - Pitch
Boro - Nessa
ed - Pitch 2
Shasta - skip
Legate - Shasta
Green - skip 2
Mänwe - ed 2
Pitch - skip 3
Mac - Pitch 3

Left: Rikae, skip, Cailín?

[skip spence]

++Pitch

[Rikae]

++Pitch

Edit; was afraid I wouldn't have time to say this, keyboard bad: I've suspected him a while, doubted because I thought I saw something else, now think I didn't, though a bit worried about Agan starting this wagon.

[Aganzir]

So happy we don't have double lynches... Right Mac? Greenie? :p

Rikae & skip where are you?

edit: xed as you can see. Now I'm worried.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Don't like skip being lynched.

EDIT: okay, seems no need to... so?

[Boromir88]

--Nessa

++elrond's daughter

What the heck right?

[Mänwe]

Oh

[Nogrod]

Deadline.

You lynched Pitchwife... the cobbler.


Narration coming a bit later.


Night 5 is on, anyway...

[Nogrod]

Ea Herald – Narvinye 21, 7th age

Interestingly enough, what Melkor had foreseen did take place. Giving the Maiar the responsibility to actually kill the one they chose themselves clearly heated the debate. It was a “Day” of strong arguments and taking sides. And the lines seemed to go criss-cross, soon looking like the votes were going all around the place.

But finally it was clear it was Pitchwife who was going to be lynched.

Many of those facing death before had been brave and virtuous in front of the unthinkable doom laid before them, but Pitchwife was more like jubilant. Let’s hear the tape.


~*~

“Ha-ha! I made it! See! I made it!” Pitchie yelled and danced after Skip and Rikae gave their last votes. “It’s the happiest day of my life!”

“Has he gone completely mad?” Greenie asked Agan a bit troubled.

“What? A crab?” Legate was baffled overhearing it.

“No, a lobster, dummy.” Agan said trying to make the two quiet.

"A lob... okay, who cares." Legate muttered.

“Now I’m going to be called to the choir of the balrogs and I get to sing those awesome melodies! And hey…” Pitch looked around him, “Didn’t I have quite a nice timing, eh?”

“Okay, shut him up. I mean I’m really ready to kill him, right now.” Agan said annoyedly.

“But who should do it, and how? I’m ready to vote but I’m not too happy with these pointed and sharp objects.” Elronds daughter asked quite frankly.

“Well someone has to do the dirty work, I guess…” Macalaure said a bit disappointed and picked a giant axe from the floor.

“Rain it on me, let the skulls be splintered!” Pitchie laughed now aloud.

“Couldn’t we change the vote now, like for Ed, I’ll change mine?” Boro offered – but others had learned to not listen to him anymore after he had shown clear signs of becoming crazy during the Day as well.

“Shut up, very helpful indeed…” Greenie hissed to him.

“Are you mad everyone?” Skip burst and took a javelin from the flor, hurling it towards Pitch.

“Let’s finish this tomfoolery!” Rikae yelled and thrusted a long-sword into Pitchie’s stomach.

“Like you say…” Mac added and hammered the axe through Pitchie’s skull.

“I’m soo happy… I feel fine… Hey, I’m not dead… no I think I am…” Pitch had fallen on the floor and was now lying in a pool of his own blood.

“Do you think he went somewhere?” Mänwe asked quietly as the silence fell.

“I think he’s still here… well, there.” Shasta said pointing to the dead corpse.

“So what was it, what he was?” Nessa asked from behind the wall of onlookers.

“He was the cobbler, look at the darkness of the blood he has bled…” wilwa said in a bitter tone.

It was only now they were sure of it. Pitchwife was indeed the blood of the cobbler.



The living:


elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy



The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.
Eomer of the Rohirrim – (Innocent) An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs; skinned, gutted and sank into his own blood on N4.
Blind Guardian –(Innocent) A spirit of evil ways; skinned, gutted and sank into her own blood on N4.
Pitchwife - (Cobbler) Tender of Oromë's dogs; killed by the Maiar on D4.


It is Night 5. The sleep is overcoming you...

[Nogrod]

“You know, I’ve been wondering about a thing lately…” ¤ said when they were scanning the spellbound Maiar around them.

“Yeah, haven’t we all?” @ said laconically.

“But I mean this thing!” ¤ protested.

“Which thing? The meaning of life, universe and everything? Or something more profound?” § chuckled.

“Oh cut it, I mean the thing we do and its’ consequences…” ¤ sounded a bit offended.

“Oh that one… Well what have you been thinking about it?” # tried to ease the feelings.

“Well… I mean, if we allow ourselves, for the argument’s sake, to toy with the possibility that we either really die at one point or then live for ever after as we should…”

“You figure there would be a third option?” § smirked.

“Knock it off §, let ¤ explain!” # put in.

“Yes, thank you. So what I said; does what we do in this life have any effect as to which one of the two is the outcome?”

“Like if we do a good job, then Melkor rewards us with great things and let’s us live – and if we do badly, then we die here? Didn’t he say that already in the beginning? Didn’t you pay attention to that?” @ asked a bit sarcastically.

“You could have just asked me if that was what bothered you “lately”.” § commented.

“I was not thinking about that!” ¤ protested again.

“So what then ¤? # was getting curious. “Like if Melkor doesn’t hold true to his word?”

“That wouldn’t be unheard of, thinking about his reputation…” @ commented, suddenly a bit more serious.

“Well, he’s our only bet. He keeps his word or not. And that’s it.” § said impatiently.

“Were you thinking of some other particular possibility ¤?” # asked.

“Like Nienor comes to cry over you and floods Melkor with her tears only to save your forsaken soul?” § laughed.

“Oh, cut it §! Let’s hear ¤?” @ hushed.

“Maybe Ilúvatar knows we are somewhere – even if he doesn’t know exactly where? So maybe, in the end of the days of this world, maybe He still is the one with the power to decide?” ¤ finally managed to form the idea that had been troubling xem so much.

There was a sudden silence when the idea went in. Even § was thinking.

“Just a minute…” # started finally. “So are suggesting, that whether one would live forever or not would be up to a whim by Eru?”

“Creating these mortal losers surely is a whim from the master-whimmer.” § leered.

“Well that was what initially made me think about the whole issue.” ¤ said calmly. “But I’m not sure it is just a question of whim… that’s why I was thinking about our deeds in life.”

“So like contrasting duties stuff: be successful in being bad and please Melkor with your deeds – and vice versa if you want to please Ilúvatar?” @ tried.

“And you don’t know which one to please? Now why don’t you? You serve Melkor and that’s it.” § commented, feeling the discussion was totally losing the reasonable tracks.

“I think I’m getting what you’re after ¤.” # said slowly, thinking heavily. “Like if Eru is the final power then it is his standards that will finally matter? In the very-very-very end?”

“That’s what I was kind of thinking.” ¤ nodded.

“But hey-hey, not so fast!” @ interrupted. “Why would our actions matter? Don’t they say Eru is the All-Good and all that? Why would there then be any requirements?”

“He could be a thought-police, you know… I’d not be surprised of something like that from his part.” § muttered.

“That’s a good point, indeed. But if not our actions, then what would determine our fates?” @ asked confused.

“Or do we have to conclude your initial set up for the question is wrong as there is no difference?” # continued.

“Like there is no real choice? Everyone either dies at the “very-very-very end” or then everyone just lives for ever after?” @ thought half-aloud.

“But if there are no consequences for your actions, then what’s all the fuzz about needing to be this or that? Why follow anyone’s orders?” § said and looked annoyed. "What's the point of it all then?"

“I’m getting seriously confused…” @ said looking like giving up.

“Maybe the point is to realize that conundrum and draw the right conclusions?” ¤ suggested carefully.

“Which have no bearing to whatsoever regarding your destiny? You must be completely mad…” § yelled.

“Okay, let’s look at this calmly now.” # suggested. “So you said that…”

“Wait a minute!” @ broke in, clearly agitated. “Listen… if Eru is the Almighty whose plans are even behind the deeds of Melkor like some of our mates here suggested earlier – that Melkor’s part in the music is just a part of a larger plan etc. – so where does that leave us? If he’s fair he can’t blame us of playing a part he has himself put upon us?”

There was an awkward silence.

“Even I understood that, but hey, we have work to do!” § said willing to stop the speculation.

"Or what does anything we think we choose matter in the first place?" ¤ said grimly. "That was the reason I started talking about the whole issue in the first place."

"Okay puppets, think whoever is the master on the strings..." § was clearly getting enough of the talk.

"We might need to think about this further... later." # said solemnly.


~*~

All the time during the discussion the treacherous Maiar had been using the diffrent utensils Sauron had left in to the corridor to finely slice and cube Elronds daughter and Shastanis Althreduin. Finding a deserted cauldron from one of the side-corridors they put the bits and pieces into it and worked a small fire under it.

The others awoke to the smell of a macabre stew.

On the top of the soup's surface there was a thin ball made of glass which had some oddly bright liquid in it. A gift of Ulmo it had been.

One of the dead had been the seer.

But who were the dead ones? It was impossible to say it from the stew. But after a short counting it was clear they were Ed and Shasta. After that it wasn't hard to make the connection with the Ulmo's ball to Shasta, a spirit of water.



The living:

Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy



The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.
Eomer of the Rohirrim – (Innocent) An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs; skinned, gutted and sank into his own blood on N4.
Blind Guardian –(Innocent) A spirit of evil ways; skinned, gutted and sank into her own blood on N4.
Pitchwife - (Cobbler) Tender of Oromë's dogs; killed by the Maiar on D4.
elronds_daughter - (Innocent) A spirit of no-nonsense; sliced and cubed into a "hearty stew" between a discussion on theology on N5.
Shastanis Althreduin - (Seer) A spirit of water; sliced and cubed into a "hearty stew" between a discussion on theology on N5.


It is Day 5 now.

Salvation or damnation... it's up to you, more or less toDay.

[Aganzir]

Whoops. :(

[Cailín]

You are one brave man, Shasta.

I'm basing all my thoughts here on Shasta's post #460. Just quickly browsed his posts and this one stood out as hopefully leaving the most obvious clues:

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None


From this I gather Shasta did not dream of a wolf, which is probably why he did not reveal. I am also prepared to accept Rikae, Aganzir and Legate (darn - I was sure he was evil) as Known Innocents, simply because there is no more tangible evidence than this and it gives me something.

That leaves

Macalaure
wilwarin538
Nessa Telrunya
Boromir88
A Little Green
Skip Spence
Mänwe

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.

To a large extent it is still going to be a stab in the dark toDay. The Cobbler and the Wolves had maybe some idea of each other's identity, but nothing that could be 100% relied upon (unless someone has discovered clues in Pitch's posts - I must admit I did not read very carefully yet). At least now I have some people I can trust.

Going to read what happened yesterDay exactly now, then sleep, but will be around tomorrow.

[skip spence]

Okay.

That was bad (hey, at least we didn't lynch him this time!) and good (finally something tangible to work with).

And lynching the cobbler proved more productive than we could imagine, eh Boro? :p

Going to have a look at Shasta's posts...

[Aganzir]

Seems I get to continue my Shastanalysis after all...

DAY 1
Wishy-washy comments about Rikae and Pitch. Mac, Kit & I look good.
He says again he likes Mac but thinks he makes too big a deal of my post.
Legate looks good, agrees with him on Lottie. Votes Lottie.

Conclusion: Based on this I'd say he dreamed of Mac first. However he didn't list him as innocent later (unlike he did to me) so I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised about being Shasta's night 1 dream, but he did say I looked more like the cobbler. It's also possible he dreamed of Kit.

DAY 2
Doesn't like Legate. Wonders about wilwa (the tone seems innocent enough but could be deflecting attention from the sallywagon).
Boro's post is merely damage control.
Corrects Mac who had interpreted his words wrong - doesn't bring up the possibility he was trying to twist his words though.
List:
Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

--

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Says he might not be opposed to lynching Greenie whom he can never read, but it's more of an example than suggestion to lynch her.
Votes Lottie because of lack of support for a Legate lynch.

Conclusion: It looks bad for Legate, but given his complete change of opinion on him the following day I don't think he dreamed of him. Shasta uses the word "see" when talking about Eomer.
I don't think he had dreamed of Mac (...at the moment) and Lommy (...as of yet). His comment on Rikae seems the most specific (ordo-Rikae etc).

DAY 3
Legate isn't as suspicious as he thought he was (elaborates: he suspected him mainly for 180-ing which is after all typical of him).
Votes for Inzil.

Conclusion: His night 3 dream couldn't have been anyone but Legate.

DAY 4
List:
elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.
Hasn't dreamed (too uncertain): wilwa, Boro, Green
Might have dreamed and found guilty (wants to analyse/look closer/etc): ed, Mac, Pitch, skip, Mänwe, Cailín
Might have dreamed and found innocent (semi-defense): Nessa
Dreamed innocent: Legate

Lists Legate, me and Rikae as green (Nessa, wilwa & Cailín are green-yellow). Boro, Green, Pitch & Mänwe are yellow-orange while no one is yet red.
Analyses Mänwe and says he's the first to enter his red category.
Analyses Cailín, doesn't see her as a wolf but she's worth watching.
Says he really wants to vote for Mänwe but could also go for skip or Boro.
Continues casting suspicion on Mänwe.
Nessa's vote post doesn't make him feel comfortable.
Is irritated by Mac's attitude.
Emphasises he doesn't feel like voting for Legate.
Votes for skip because doesn't agree with the ed & Legate votes and doesn't think lynching Nessa that day is a good idea.

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

[Macalaure]

11 people left, 4 of which are wolves. If we don't lynch a wolf toDay, it's 4 wolves and 4 innocents toMorrow, and we will have lost. Unless the ranger is lucky, of course.

Let's look at what the seer left us (typing while I read).

Day1: Makes positive remarks about me, Kitanna, Agan, and Legate, me twice. He definitely didn't find a wolf Night1, unless he completely keeps quiet about it.

Day2: He's after Legate a little. In his #252 list there's a host of people he feels good about, but only two he feels "no-nonsense" bad about - Legate and Aganzir. Strangely he lists Agan twice (adding "on" to the "bad Agan"). Is he hinting that Legate is dreamt of and evil while using Agan to make it less obvious to the wolves? He votes Lottie, but mentions he would have prefered Legate.

Day3: Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)
Obviously, he now dreamt of Legate and clears him unmistakably.
He's very eager to lynch Inzil or Nessa. We know Inzil is innocent, and most likely he dreamt of Legate the night before. Since he didn't mention Nessa much before, I doubt he knows she's evil. My guess is he wants to get rid of enigmas so he won't be forced to waste dreams on them. He also votes innocent Inzil - if he had dreamt of Nessa, he wouldn't have done that. (He also seems uncertain of Nessa the next Day.)

Day4: List in #459:
If he dreamt of anyone guilty, it has to be Manwe, as he's his first item on the analysis list. This might explain why he's dead, even though there was a fair amount of suspicion against him.
He lists me as intermediate, so probably he hasn't dreamt of me after all.
He doesn't list anyone as clearly unsuspicious. He's hiding his known innocent well here.
The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.
He lists nobody as red, though. Maybe he hasn't dreamt of Manwe and his fourth dream is already dead? Did he think listing Manwe as sole prime suspect would be too obvious?
The conclusion of his Manwe analysis is very condemning, but he was very negative about Legate before, too. What sets the two cases apart though:
I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.
That's as plain as it has to be.
His Cailín analysis in inconclusive, which suggests that he did not dream of her and it's just a regular analysis.
He keeps on talking about Agan being the cobbler, which either means he hasn't dreamt of Agan after all (which means he hasn't necessarily dreamt of Rikae either).

Mänwe: known wolf.
Legate: known innocent.
.. would be my conclusion.

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil? ;)

[Macalaure]

Haha, reading Agan's quote of Shasta's first list, I see that he didn't list Agan twice - the line breaks were just that way on my screen. :D

Never mind. :rolleyes:

[Aganzir]

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

[Aganzir]

Mac he talked very differently of me and Rikae. The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.

[skip spence]

There's also this:
I will most probably vote Shasta. At least given how people seem to be inclined to vote. El ron hubbard would be a remote possibility, Mac in some very distant brackets, only if I had to choose. But no, I'd prefer Shasta.

That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all. :(
Legate is in the clear, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

[Cailín]

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil?

Sloppy, I'm afraid. ;) As I said, I only looked at the one post. I honestly did not think Shasta would have been so subtle yesterDay if he had found a wolf, but I guess he may have been trying to be heroic.

[Cailín]

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.
You can bet it does leave Cailín as an unknown factor, and one I really am suspicious about. Even this defense does not sound very genuine to me, to be honest. Though on the other hand, now knowing that Shasta was the Seer, and I suspected him... I am sort of wondering about how well my judgements have been this far. Well, there was this one moment the day before when I was thinking about him as either a Wolf or some Gifted, and I was reluctant, but then his posting made me put him as a Wolf and stick with it. Let's just hope it will go better in the future. Still, Cailín looks suspicious to me.

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

I am sure everybody will now go through Shasta's posts, I will do it myself too, in order to get my own check on it.

Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

Possible. I have to look at it myself too. It is true that one might wonder why would Shasta do something so weird, as a Seer.

EDIT: x-ed since first Mac

[Aganzir]

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?
Me too. You should have seen my face.

Speaking of Boro... What on earth are you up to? The most likely explanation seems to be that he's a wolf pretending to be either the cobbler or a gifted pretending to be the cobbler. I simply can't see an innocent Boro behaving like that, even for the sake of not being night-killed.

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. :p I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

[Macalaure]

The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.
I see what you mean.


Alright, where do we stand?

Dreamt of innocent:
Legate

Likely dreamt of innocent:
Rikae

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Likely dreamt of wolf:
Mänwe
Even if he hasn't been dreamt of, the fact that Shasta is dead now makes it very, very likely that he's a wolf.

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Ordered by current suspicion:
Cailín
Skip
Boro
Wilwa
Greenie
Nessa

The field has been narrowed down nicely at last. :)

[Rikae]

My, my, Rikae's laconic uneasiness with me has sprouted and borne fruit, it seems. Evidently it's 'being jumpy' to ask someone who throws a laconic oneliner like that at me for explanations, especially when it was her first post and she'd singled me out without commenting on anybody else, yes?:rolleyes:

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal, and Legate, Agan and I make perfect sense as his picks, all of us being so very creepy and all. ;)

Shame that I don't get to scare Legate anymore, though. To answer his question, I was thinking about remodeling my kitchen, so that song started running through my head ("got to move these...refrigerators"), got mixed together with WW, and the result amused me enough that I posted it.

At any rate: I am starting to have a very bad feeling about Mac. It's only a feeling, but he's creeping me out. Going to have a look at his posts when I can.
Mac, how do you go from "probably he hasn't dreamt of me after all" (a reasonable conclusion) to listing yourself alongside Agan, who he put on the "green" list?

[Cailín]

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Think you are pretty optimistic there, Mac. I find no evidence that Shasta dreamed of you, except for some positive hints in the very early stages of the game, but he liked me then as well and I am sure none of you are so eager to clear me.

I found you fairly unsuspicious for the past few days, but you are not off my possible wolf list.

[Aganzir]

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

---

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.
Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.
Yeah I noticed that too (although not until you pointed it out). However you need to keep in mind that us non-native speakers have a more limited vocabulary (thus we repeat words more often than the rest of you) so I wouldn't read too much into it. Boro & Pitch couldn't have identified each other for sure on day 1, but their connection is interesting.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal
What's your take on Mänwe then?

[Rikae]

What's your take on Mänwe then?

The bit about "first person to enter my "red" category" is fairly incriminating. The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

[Mänwe]

I think we might underestimate the desire a seer might have for self preservation, seeing as they're one of the more immediately helpful characters to us innocents. I would venture it a possibility that he'd draw attention away from himself to a quiet and considered by most "submarine" prisoner, to ensure his survival for another night of dreaming.

I can see that his comments about me will be construed as proof of my guilt but I would say to my fellow good spirits, look carefully at who and how people jump onto what he said and condemn me- I could be the easiest bandwagon today if you allow it.

And so far the bandwagon has ended up a good spirit each time.

It's late here so i'll be back tomorrow.

EDIT: x'ed with Rikae and Aganzir

[Macalaure]

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.
That post was more to make up my own mind to see what our options are from here. Maybe it wasn't worded/formatted well. For right now, Rikae, and you, too, are close enough to innocent to me to count with, especially since I thought you two were innocent before. Obviously, I didn't put myself into the list of remaining people either.

[skip spence]

I'm tired and should go to sleep but here's my opinion on Shasta's dreams:

Day 1.
Inconclusive. Not a wolf; possibly an innocent Mac but I doubt it given how Shasta start suspecting him later. Innocent Rikae is a more likely dream to me since she stays "green" throughout.

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

Day 3:
Almost certainly an innocent Legate

Day 4:
Probably a wolfish Mänwe. Possibly an innocent Agan.

Now to bed.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Suspected Pitch (in an approximate yet more or less arbitrary order from the most to the least suspicious - I haven't listed the dead or myself because this was originally a note intended just for me): Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa; Mac, wilwa, Green
Found Pitch innocent: Boro; wilwa, Nessa, Legate
Pitch found innocent: Boro, skip; Rikae

DAY 2
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa
Found Pitch innocent: Boro, skip, Cailín
Pitch found innocent: -

DAY 3
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Rikae, Cailín
Pitch suspected: No one (but Inzil, it seems)
Found Pitch innocent day 3: skip
Pitch found innocent: No one (but Shasta)

DAY 4
Suspected Pitch: Mac; wilwa, Rikae, skip; Green, Legate
Pitch suspected: flip-flopped on Legate
Found Pitch innocent: No one except Legate & Greenie did some flip-flopping
Pitch found innocent: Boro, Cailín, skip (whom he voted), semi-defended also Nessa

chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.
I failed to see anything that would've suggested Pitch knew for sure Nessa is innocent, but the way he went after her makes me think better of her.

Ed constantly suspected Pitch while Mänwe attacked her - I believe this is the reason she was killed.

It's rather late now so I won't try to reach any conclusions about Pitch's interactions now but will do so tomorrow if I deem it worth the effort. I thought I'd still post these though.

[Aganzir]

The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.
It does. The wolves were in pains to catch the seer last night because if they hadn't, they would've been considerably worse off today. In hindsight Shasta's comment about really not wanting to vote for Legate was probably a giveaway, but a seer simply wouldn't be so sloppy this late in the game as to explicitly put an unknown into his red category.

I would venture it a possibility that he'd draw attention away from himself to a quiet and considered by most "submarine" prisoner, to ensure his survival for another night of dreaming.
Someone suspected as heavily as Shasta was yesterday doesn't need to do so. Good try but I think I know who I'm voting for today.

Speaking of which, I might as well do it now because I don't think anything will happen that makes me change my mind. It would be an offense to Shasta to leave Mänwe alive after how he talked of him yesterday.

++MÄNWE

I still have my retraction if something drastic happens, though. I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin
I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part. Well, at least it limits people's choices (they won't vote me), but they can also know that my points are not intentionally biased. I simply hope that they won't be too biased in any other way, I can promise you to do my best to avoid that...

Anyway, for now:

Shasta

First Day:

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan"
"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post."
Okay, this looks sort of as if he had dreamed of Mac, but the fact that he much later dropped him suggests to me that he was not his dream. Of course, Shasta could have been bluffing and such, but not sure if he would do it that way. Agan he calls a Cobbler later on, but still keeps her mostly "green". I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams). Also, let's note that possibly not all players have been around by the time he made the post. But on the other hand, he does not really mention anybody else after that, so...

If I were to guess, I would say he might have dreamed of Agan (not Mac because of the later Days). Whereas from later Days it would seem rather sensible to say he dreamed of Rikae, his comment about her on Day 1 is rather nothing-saying. Except that she is the first name mentioned ever. (I wanted to check if there is not a pattern like that by any chance, but seemingly isn't, since he starts Day 2 with me, whom he clears the day after).

Second Day:
Lots of mess and I am not sure. I wonder if he might have dreamed of either of the dead then (the question would be why, neither seems like a likely pick for him, I think). Anyway, he did not at least seem to have dreamed of a Wolf, and so if we look at people he found innocent:
Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy
So maybe some Rikae now, or even Lommy (who died later) etc.?

Third Day: Backpedals on me, and given how he suspected me before, yes, it is clearer than day that he had dreamed of me there. He had not posted anything much elaborate during the whole Day as he seemingly was posting just from his phone.

Fourth Day: Suddenly starts to think more of Mänwe, so I really wonder if it was that he dreamed of him. The sort of hyperactivity might go hand in hand with "hooray! After several Nights I have at last managed to get a Wolf, brilliant!" But, well... it is not 100%. He at least prefers him to other lynches, in any case, and seems more convinced about him (if you can use that word) than about anybody else.

He posted two lists, I am putting here even the first one, a sort of "intro" list of what he's going to do in the Day:

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.
I actually call attention to this list, because here he says something about "I will look at..." or something about "just radar" about basically everybody except for me, Rikae, Aganzir, Manwe and Nessa. So that makes me think I might be right in my previous assumption.

Here is the other list of the Day:

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None


He put me, Aganzir and Rikae in the same slot on his last Day's list. I really wonder if all his dreams have survived until now, somehow, it seems a bit improbable. On the other hand, not impossible, and especially with the above, it looks logical.

So yes, that's it, here I would conclude. The thing about calling Agan a cobbler seems more like a backpedaling bluff, it is not really so significant. So I would really think that his dreams were: 1-innocent Agan, 2-innocent Rikae, 3-innocent me, 4-guilty Mänwe (probably). He is still rather uncertain, or switching sides about Nessa to make me think he dreamed of her at any point.

This is probably enough for me now. I should wake up in 7 hours, so better go now. I'll just quickly check if somebody crossposted with me...

And btw: Mänwe's post does not look good to me, not at all, precious. I think an innocent would behave differently if suspected in this way.

(and p.s. sorry for the length, it's the quotes ;) And I know it's like for the sixth time you see the quotes of Shasta toDay, but I think it's very good if everybody goes through it by themselves... or at least I want to, anyway, and also feel it a bit of my responsibility anyway)

EDIT: x-ed with one Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Hear, hear.

Basically yes. I think Mänwe is the best bet for toDay. But hey, I want to see people posting first, for now I am going to sleep. So looking forward to see people commenting here.

[wilwarin538]

Can make a quick post tonight, and then probably not til a couple hours before DL. I've had the worst luck this game for having time to participate. :confused:

The analyses of Shasta's dream-possibilities make a lot of sense. It's also possible that some of his earlier dreams were for people who are now dead, which could be why his first 2 dreams seem harder to figure out. But I have to agree that Legate looks quite good, and Manwe looks quite bad.

I was really surprised Pitch ended up being the Cobbler, because it seemed clear Boro was. But I don't think that makes Boro a wolf, yesterDay I said how the way Boro has been acting is more like a busy Ordo or a Cobbler, I don't think he'd behave this way as a wolf.

I wish I had more time, but I'm afraid I don't. I'll come back on tomorrow.

[Aganzir]

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part.
Exactly. Pull yourself together or I'll give you Sharkey! :p

I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams).
I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

But, well... it is not 100%.
I think it's about as clear as a seer can go without coming out.

Anyways I'm going to sleep.

[Macalaure]

Let's talk about something else.

YesterDay's voting:

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please :rolleyes: )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame...

[Macalaure]

And let's get this over with:

++Mänwe

No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.
It matters for us, of course, because unlike you, we don't know if you are innocent. But yea, whatever.

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.
Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf. The Cobbler is sending them clues, but if e.g. neither Pitch nor Boro's name appeared among the names sent to them, and they had suspected Boro might be Cobbler as well as we did, then who knows... I say you jump too quickly to conclusions.

I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him.

I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.

[A Little Green]

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.I obviously agree about Legate. I'm unsure about Rikae, and I'm pretty sure he didn't dream of you. It would be odd to keep calling a dreamed innocent a probable cobbler. I agree though that lynching Mänwe is our best bet toDay.

The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.I'm not sure if I'd give as much weight to this as you do, given that Shasta said the list was about who he doesn't want to vote, and Agan was there because he thought she was probably the cobbler.

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.Cailín! First it was Valier talking cute about the little Maia and thus making it impossible to suspect her, now you're doing the same by talking about wedding cakes! :D

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?Yes, Boro is an interesting one. I can see no reason for a Borordo to post the way he did late yesterDay. Considering that he's still alive makes me seriously suspicious of him. As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though. I'm still not sure of Nessa. Obviously Pitch thought she was an ordo, but then most of us did put her and Inzil in the same category at that time.

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.As others have pointed out, this logic doesn't quite hold water.

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.I pretty much agree with this.

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)So basically a lot depends on Skip's role, doesn't it? If Skip is evil, Agan and Mac look bad. I'm still rather suspicious of Skip, but like Mac said the fact Pitch voted for him makes him look better, or else Pitch was mistaken. I'm not sure about Mac's thoughts on Wilwa and Nessa.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf.Err? :D

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Err? :D

Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course :D

Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case.

I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see:

Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following):

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

followed by Mac:

I wish I would have thought of that yesterDay, but you're right. Certainly his behaviour toDay strongly suggests it.

And immediately in the next post by skip:

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?
Which is actually moving from words to deeds - rather alarming, in itself. Especially if Boro is innocent and the WWs knew he is not the Cobbler, then skip-wolf could be here calling for the possibility of getting rid of Boro. Or something.

Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac):

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.
And then we continued talking with more or less presuming he is one (at least from my part). Meanwhile, other players commented on that idea...
Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.
At that point, Rikae still kept asking him questions as if everything was normal, which makes me think that it supports her innocence.

Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now.

For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone.

What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it.

What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.

[Cailín]

I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae?

So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him.

I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted.

My list

The ones I think are our wolves:

Skip
Wilwa
Macalaure
Manwe

The ones I think could be our wolves:

Nessa
Boro
Greenie

Innocents:

Aganzir
Rikae
Legate

[Boromir88]

Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me.

Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily.

I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.

[A Little Green]

Boro, if you think Nessawolf bought your cobbler show, do you have some quote on that?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

Well, it is true that his vote came at a point when there were votes for like four different people, none of them really being among his top suspects (they were votes for LRH, me, Pitch and Nessa). Earlier, Shasta had said about his suspects:

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

He could have voted for Mänwe at that point, theoretically, but there has been quite a large debate before about who wants to vote whom and people did not really want to vote Mänwe. So I think he just went with the one of his suspects who seemed likely to get lynched.

In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say.

Anyway, off to lunch, will be back still in a while.

[A Little Green]

In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say.I don't think I get your trap for the Wolves -theory. If suspecting Manwë was a trap to lure the wolves out, it obviously worked, but wouldn't that mean Manwë is a wolf? I'm confused.

[Mänwe]

Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)

You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.

~~

Once again a note about Mänwe... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it...

QFT

~~

Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe?

A fair point- I would say Shasta was preparing to dream of me last night and hadn't dreamt of me before. Being killed i'm not sure if Nog would have accepted a name to be dreamt about? If he did...then Shasta is turning in his grave at the possibility of me being lynched.

~~

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game.

Gads! I failed too.

[skip spence]

I must say, the moment I saw that Boro wasn't the cobbler I immediately thought: surely he is a wolf then!

Now I'm not as sure - I can see other possibilities - but I'm still quite certain. A wolf pretending to be the cobbler makes perfect sense whereas the other alternatives are quite far-fetched.

That said, I fully intend to vote Mänwe toDay. The combined evidence of Shasta's sudden red alert and the fact that the wolves night-killed him is the nail in the coffin for me. It would be foolish to ignore that.

In fact:

++Mänwe

By the way, isn't it ironic that Mänwe's only contribution (that I remember) was a call-out for more suspicion for the quiet, low-key players? :rolleyes:

EDIT: x'ed with the Män himself

[Cailín]

He could have voted for Mänwe at that point, theoretically, but there has been quite a large debate before about who wants to vote whom and people did not really want to vote Mänwe. So I think he just went with the one of his suspects who seemed likely to get lynched.

Fair enough, but I just have doubts. Shasta knew he was going to die any minute. The wolves had / have a terrible advantage at the moment that would likely be the end of us: the double kill. With one wolf down, and a couple of known innocents, he would have bought us Days. If I had been the Seer and found a wolf in this stage in the game, I would have pushed very strongly for a Manwe lynch and very possibly revealed my true identity. I realise this is unfair, because Shasta is more experienced (I have only been the Seer once and I have not played regularly for years) but it seems so obvious. When Shasta voted Skip, Skip had zero votes and there were many votes still to follow. No reason for Shasta to despair yet.

Again, Manwe may be our best option and if that is what you and Rikae decide, that's what we will do. Also his latest post does not make me feel better about him. It's just that Macalaure's (and to a certain extent Aganzir's) absolute condemnation of Manwe looks suspicious.

[Mänwe]

Will no one accept my making things worse for myself as a sign I am innocent?

[Boromir88]

Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages. So his dreams are there somewhere.

Post 43.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

And here's what I mean about Shasta, he probably didn't dream about Mac, Kitanna, and Agan. Even if he feels good about them, the way that he lumped all 3 together as "looking good," I doubt he had dreamed of any of them first night.

It's possible Rikae was, since she's separated from Mac, Kit, and Agan, but what he says looks pretty inconclusive. Also, he seems more commentating on what's been happening to Pitch being heavily suspected, and not pointing to who he dreamed of

Post 76.

I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks ).

On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely. When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.

Disagrees with Mac about Agan, but still thinks he looks good. So, still, highly doubtful Mac was Shasta's night 1 dream. Feels good about Legate, but because of his last post, so I don't think he dreamed of Legate at this point.

Shasta votes Lottie, Day 1.

I think it's clear enough that for his first dream, Shasta did not know any wolves, and had not dreamed of Pitch as the cobbler. From the looks, possibly Rikae or Agan, who he remained positive about throughout the day. His feeling good about Mac, Kit, and Legate up to this point, looks based off how they were posting and agreeing with what they were saying.

Day 2.

Post 234. It's long, and commenting towards a lot of people. I won't quote it but, it confirms he's trusting Rikae, and he's starting to find Legate suspicious. (It then makes sense, and fits in line that he would dream of Legate asap)

Post 252.

It doesn't seem like Shasta had a wolf at this point either. He "feels no-nonsense bad" about Legate, but that's purely on Legate's posting.

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Looking at who he "feels good about." Lommy and Cailin he basically says the same thing about, there are no warning signs "yet." Doesn't look like he had dreamed any of them. Also, on Mac, he says he hopes that he's not giving Mac a "pass" simply for sounding logical. So, he hasn't dreamed of Mac either.

On Eomer:
Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Possibly, but he's dead now.
On Agan:
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
This looks like a really elaborate defense, after earlier saying he thought there was wolvish involvement in the sally-wagon. About Agan's vote, he makes the point to say it's the "least-wolvish of the lot."

On Rikae:
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.

So, again it looks like Day 2, Shasta has not dreamed of a wolf, but his continued defenses for Rikae and Agan, he at least dreamed of one of them. His biggest suspect on Day 2 was Legate, and this leads to Day 3, where I have no doubt he had dreamed of Legate the following night.

Post 410.
Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

He also states he will probably vote for Inzil or Nessa because of the 3 days of "crap" about it, but there's no doubt he had dreamed of Legate, and had no wolf up to this point. So, moving onto the next day.

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?

[Boromir88]

Greenie it was from Day 2. Nessa's post 209.

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

Which I think was referring to the business between sally/Agan/wilwa on Day 1. The possibility that the cobbler would send in his own name first night and the wolves would then know who the cobbler was. It just seemed like a really misplaced or strange thing for Nessa to comment on. I couldn't figure it out other than it looked like Nessa let slip she knew the cobbler had already hinted to the wolves.

But then I have my doubts now since Pitch had trumped up reasons against Nessa yesterday and seemed to be following the "frame job" against her.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me.

Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily.

I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.

I don't recall ever voting or suspecting you, goodsir. Where on earth did you get that idea? :eek::eek:

[Nessa Telrunya]

I don't recall ever voting or suspecting you, goodsir. Where on earth did you get that idea? :eek::eek:

EDIT: Crossed with Boro

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't think I get your trap for the Wolves -theory. If suspecting Manwë was a trap to lure the wolves out, it obviously worked, but wouldn't that mean Manwë is a wolf? I'm confused.

Yes, I meant unless in case if Mänwe was not a Wolf and Shasta just wanted to try to lure the WWs out, and they then attacked him either randomly or with some different purpose, like to frame innocent Mänwe. But anyway, of course most likely is that he is one of them and either was dreamed about or at most being lured out (if e.g. Shasta perhaps dreamed of somebody who died that Night, or something).

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?

Because if he put only one person into his "red" box, it would be clear to the WWs that he is the Seer, especially if Mänwe is one of them. Shasta obviously wanted to stay hidden still. Of course, it was not much more subtle (from the WWs' perspective) to go after Mänwe in such way, but he did also another analysis of Cailín and made all these "announcements" that he is going to look at this one and that one toDay in his beginning post of the Day. And when Mänwe was not lynched normally, he perhaps hoped for not being discovered (since the idea was dismissed) while at the same time leaving a clear enough clue in case he died. Or this is the way I could imagine it.

[Aganzir]

As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.
I seem to remember you quote a post by him and said it looked like the cobbler trying to draw the wolves' attention to something they might not have noticed, or was there something else too?

A fair point- I would say Shasta was preparing to dream of me last night and hadn't dreamt of me before.
:D The hilarious part is, that's something a seer-dreamed Shastawolf once tried himself. "It's obvious from the seer's posts that he always suspected the one he was going to dream of the following night, therefore he hadn't dreamed of me yet!"

Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages.
Boro I don't know if I should laugh or cry... As far as I know he's only been the seer once before and was lynched on day 1 (you were the cobbler in that game). However the Shastaranger I remember can be very cryptic, as the "No he's not the ranger I'm the ranger even though I didn't leave any clues about my save, oh he did, well let's lynch him nonetheless!" Boro knows well.

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?
When he moves a person he had previously said basically nothing about down to the red list.

I'm prepared to give Boro one more day, but he's in trouble tomorrow unless he comes up with an extremely good excuse for his behaviour.

[Rikae]

Refresh my memory, folks. Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.

Anyway, I doubt very highly Shasta would have mixed together dreamed innocents with others in that "green" category, and it seems to be the best hint we have to go on. Greenie therefore earns baddie points by trying to cast doubt on it, especially since Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point.
The Mänwe business is simply not as clear, contrary to what Agan says: "would be the first..." sounds more like a plan to dream him rather than a reference to an already dreamed wolf, but a Mänwe wolf, in that case, could still have killed Shasta because of that. At any rate, his posting toDay looks about as far from innocent as you can get. I can't see an innocent being so calm or detached in his situation: it is more like the response of a trapped wolf who decides to try reasoning his way out of things for the heck of it. The Boro/Mänwe "trying to play cobbler" business is especially bad. Sorry, Boro, but that looks like an explanation made up after the fact, or perhaps tacked on to the fact that, as a wolf, you wanted to pass yourself off as the cobbler, and Mänwe, is that a joke? If not, that's a pretty weak attempt at explaining yourself.

I won't be around the rest of the morning, but when I return I'll try to explain my thinking as thoroughly as I can, since as a known innocent, I'm likely to be toast toNight (of course, if we get a wolf toDay as we have to, the ranger may be able to block the one kill toNight, which would be a long overdue bit of good luck for us...).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Refresh my memory, folks. Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.
I have been thinking about Wolf-on-Wolf attempts which might have taken place during yesterDay, and I would not put it past Mac nor past his opponents.

Anyway, I doubt very highly Shasta would have mixed together dreamed innocents with others in that "green" category, and it seems to be the best hint we have to go on. Greenie therefore earns baddie points by trying to cast doubt on it, especially since Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point.
Now, now. I am not sure it was that much of casting doubt, not more than Agan herself did as well (about herself!). And generally, from her behavior, Greenie seems to me innocent-ish.

If I were to say the Wolves now, I would say: Mänwe, Mac, Cailín, possibly Wilwa or skip. I would bet rather safely at either of the former and with a questionmark on the latter two.

The Mänwe business is simply not as clear, contrary to what Agan says: "would be the first..." sounds more like a plan to dream him rather than a reference to an already dreamed wolf, but a Mänwe wolf, in that case, could still have killed Shasta because of that.
If so, whom do you think Shasta would have dreamed about, if not Mänwe? But no, I think it is quite plausible that he dreamed of him, and his "announcement" of that he is going to look at him that Day was just a sort of screen against being suspected of being the Seer. Given that Shasta's tactic was obviously not speaking out "hi, I am the Seer, this and this is innocent, this and this is Wolf...", it would fit for him to try to make it appear as if he suddenly found Mänwe innocent only during analysis of him. He did the same with me, in fact, saying "okay, after rereading I don't find Legate so suspicious anymore". Yet of course nobody believes that it was rereading which made him think good of me.

Anyway, let me now vote

++Mänwe

I am going away now, I will be back before DL still I hope, but just in case...

[A Little Green]

I seem to remember you quote a post by him and said it looked like the cobbler trying to draw the wolves' attention to something they might not have noticed, or was there something else too?Yes, it was that one.

Rikae's computer is in repair, so we're sharing mine - I didn't get to yet. If you're still alive toMorrow, I will.I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.

[Macalaure]

I don't like Boro's seer analysis that much. Too much rests on the premise that Shasta was 100% obvious in his hints, therefore if something is only 99% obvious, it's not a hint.

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.

If Mänwe is not a wolf, it's easy. They would declare him likely dreamt of (maybe with a back door of "we can't be 100% sure, but the evidence is strong enough" or so) and vote for him.

The problem: most people I trust believe Mänwe is a wolf (Legate and Agan in particular), most people I don't trust have doubts (Cailín and Boro come to mind, Rikae, too, unfortunately).


ToDay it's 7-4.
We lynch Mänwe and he's a wolf, then toMorrow: 6-3
That means we have one wrong lynch left, i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.

Right now, I think Boro and Skip are most interesting to look at. I hope I'll have the time.

[Cailín]

I don't know what to say. I just read yesterDay's discussion closely and that made me feel worse about Macalaure, slightly better about Skip, amused by Boromir and confused about A Little Green. Fairly awful about Wilwa (but I've been suspicious of Wilwarin since Day 2 so that's nothing new) and bad about Manwe as well.

Manwe will undoubtedly be lynched toDay - Aganzir and Legate already voted for him after all. I'll be back later but somewhat more distracted.

[Aganzir]

Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.
Nothing that I can think of, but I doubt Greenie is a wolf.
Mac's early accusation of Boro based on his defense of Pitch would be conveniently wolf-on-wolf though. And if Mac or skip is a wolf, their little row yesterday is worth taking a look at. It seems it sprang out of nowhere and they did their best to interpret everything the other said in a bad light (especially skip who was all of a sudden suspicious of Mac whom no one else had really suspected), and it made me raise my eyebrows. The thought crossed my mind they had agreed to do some wolf-on-wolfing so that nobody would start wondering about Mac's still being alive.

Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point.
No I couldn't - Shasta would have seen me as the cobbler, not ordo.

I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.
Could be either. I tend to assume I don't die overnight even when I'm not a wolf.

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.
Sacrifice him. Sacrifice Boro tomorrow. Let the remaining two try to sneak into the victory. (This is assuming Boro is a wolf. He will undoubtedly try to be serious and convince us of his innocent intentions now though.)

Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me... however now that I think of it, the people I remember discussing the cobbler issue the most with were Pitch, Mac and skip. Now I wonder. :p

i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.
What exactly do you think makes you more suspicious than say Boro?

[skip spence]

So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy.
Hey now, I think you are being a tad harsh on yourself. I've seen sillier wolves. :p

(No, I'm not accusing Cailin. Not yet anyway.)

Have to say this though: I'm beginning to feel a bit better about this. Sure, the wolves are very much in the driving seat still, but if we nail a Män-wolf tonight, and a Boro-wolf tomorrow (or a who-ever wolf), I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Then we'd even have margin of error, right?

I'm going to re-read yesterDay, see if I find anything interesting.

[skip spence]

Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me...
This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?

[Nessa Telrunya]

So there goes Legate being a wolf. :rolleyes:

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

[A Little Green]

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.

[Aganzir]

This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?
I was thinking while writing, sorry if the phrasing is unclear - I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.
If the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch a wolf you mean. If an innocent votes for an innocent, or a couple of innocents vote for different wolves, the wolves can easily either hold their votes or retract - and win.

[Boromir88]

I don't like Boro's seer analysis that much. Too much rests on the premise that Shasta was 100% obvious in his hints, therefore if something is only 99% obvious, it's not a hint.


That's because I know how a Shasta-seer operates. He will always leave clues, but they would not be confusing. That is, he would not say "I feel good about Mac, but I hope I don't regret giving him a pass for sounding logical" if he had already dreamed you were innocent. If he dreamed you innocent, he would say something along the lines of how he defended Agan the entire game, or how he switched from heavily suspecting Legate, to "re-reading" him and finding him innocent.

Granted, the other time Shasta was the seer, as Agan said I was the cobbler. But nothing I said about how Shasta-seer would act was false. I just may have distorted and confused what he actually said to suit my cobbler-aims in that game.

So, now I wonder why all the hub-bub about he dreamed Manwe a wolf. I agree with Legate he wouldn't be so obvious as to move a dreamed wolf on red-alert. However, the situation yesterday was pretty dire, not must-lynch wolf mode, but with there still being 4 wolves, which means they would still get 2 kills. If he had dreamed of a Manwe wolf, I would think a Shasta-seer would convey this more clearly and finally put an end to the wolves double kills.

Instead, I think Shasta was acting more out of annoyance from starting to be suspected and in general how the game has gone. He wouldn't have sought to confuse, but I don't see why we should assume he dreamed of a wolf-Manwe simply because he started suspecting him.

[Aganzir]

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

[Boromir88]

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

In either case we lose, I would take winning because of interpretting the seer correctly thank you very much.

Let's look how he treated Legate, before dreaming of him.

Post 234. He starts suspecting Legate for flip flopping all over the place about Inzil and other reasons.

Post 252. He feels "moderately bad" about Inzil and Lottie. You could call this his orange-yellow zone, yes? He feels "no-nonsense bad" about Legate.

Post 274. he votes Lottie but says of Legate.

And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so.

I remind you he has not dreamed of Legate at this point, but clearly was suspecting him, and even said he'd prefer voting Legate over Lottie. However, since there was no support for Legate he didn't. Then the next day, he comes in and suddenly switches to Legate looks innocent after "re-reading him."

So, he dreamed of Legate, yes? Do you not see the same exact pattern with how Shasta reacted to Manwe yesterday? Seriously, do you not see it, or are you just choosing to ignore it and hide behind "well we must listen to the seer even if we are misinterpretting him and lose."

Post 493. Reads into Manwe and finds him suspicious, saying he may be in the "red" category.

Post 502. States he really wants to vote for Manwe.

Come on Agan, you're better at analyzing and looking at the finer details than this. Shasta followed the same pattern with Manwe, as he did with Legate, before he had dreamed and known about Legate. So, why are you pleading for the innocents to follow the seers words even if we're misinterpretting it? Sure you wanted to wake the sleeping bear, I feel life in me again. :p

[Mänwe]

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

I would like to remind each innocent in this village to come to their own conclusions. I would rather be lynched because you actually consider me innocent than lynched because I am "the best bet" or you were encouraged to "vote together" or I am to be "the most likely to be lynched therefore to vote anyone else would be a 'throwaway vote'" . Because I sincerely despise that term.

~~

Rikae, no it was not a joke and I did not offer it as an explanation.

~~

I might have voiced a misgiving or two had I thought it would be heard :p

Suffice to say, my guilt is being based upon interpretation of posts at its hardest. With my post and with Shasta's eye falling on me as it did and then his subsequent death, I have fallen most foul of the adage, "in the wrong place at the wrong time". So if folk wish to incriminate me because of it, so be it. But don't say I didn't warn you in the clearest of ways for you doom the others and hand victory to Melkor and his minions (who I will add have played very well, and are most deserving of a place at his side- the Deciever has been given a run for his money!).

Edit: I should listen to Boro and Cailins points since the start of the day, worth noting.

[Aganzir]

Come on Agan, you're better at analyzing and looking at the finer details than this. Shasta followed the same pattern with Manwe, as he did with Legate, before he had dreamed and known about Legate. So, why are you pleading for the innocents to follow the seers words even if we're misinterpretting it? Sure you wanted to wake the sleeping bear, I feel life in me again. :p
I think it would be hilarious if we lynched someone else than Mänwe and the wolves won. Shasta would be so upset about being beaten with his own strategy... as you well know (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=642271&postcount=346), Boro!

If he hadn't dreamed of Mänwe, he would have found another way to suspect him than saying he's the first to enter his red category. Simple as that. End of discussion (on my part at least).

edit: xed wit Mänwe.
With my post and with Shasta's eye falling on me as it did and then his subsequent death
Was that a confession? :p

[A Little Green]

Granted, the other time Shasta was the seer, as Agan said I was the cobbler. But nothing I said about how Shasta-seer would act was false. I just may have distorted and confused what he actually said to suit my cobbler-aims in that game.Hmm Boro, you do realise that the only time Shasta was the seer before this, he was lynched on Day 1 so you couldn't really claim you know how a Shasta-seer leaves his hints.

Oh, and might as well:

++ Manwe

[skip spence]

First thing I noticed is this odd post by Boro (to Mac)

Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.
Now what makes it extra curious is that Mac hadn't even mentioned Boro that Day (although he accused and voted him the Day before. Mac did say this however:
Can we all please re-think your suspicions now?

There's something very forced about Boro's "attack" on Mac. I'm beginning to entertain the idea that Boro and Mac might be fellows doing some neat wolf-on-wolfing in preparation for a rainy day.

Disclaimer: I've not taken Day 1-3 into account; is there anything I have forgotten about that speaks for or against this notion?

It is Agan who calls Boro out:
I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

Then Mac posts his long analysis (which was what made me suspicious of him). Here he casts guilt over everyone who had any part in trying to lynch Nessa or Inzil, though some more than others (Calin looked worst, closely followed by me; the Seer Shasta makes the top-three). I started to suspect him mostly because he seemed to take for granted that Nessa is innocent (how could he know that?) and because he made the whole thing seem like an objective, almost scientific, analysis, when it was in fact extremely subjective and built entirely on his personal assumptions or, as I feared, calculations.

Rikae also noticed the opposed views:
Mac and Boro clearly both have agendas, and one of them is the wolves' agenda. Let's toss a coin and lynch one.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent.
What was this btw, Rikae?
I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf.

Me and Mac are exchanging some blows. Finally it sort of peters out with this...
But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.
That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime.
I didn't reply to Mac then (too hectic, not enough time) but I will now. This bias of yours is what made me raise my eyebrows in the first place. Inzil is a known innocent. Nessa is not (not by me anyway).

Mac, you still haven't spelled out your case on me by the way?

Reading back I was also reminded of Rikae's song. Loved it! :)

[Cailín]

If Manwe is not a wolf, we are all doomed.

Spreading the votes in this situation, especially considering the fact that (almost) Known Innocents Aganzir and Legate have chosen this path, could be fatal to us all.

++ Manwe

I am not convinced Boromir88 is a wolf (his behaviour was odd, but could be frustrated ordo and I agree, as must be obvious, with what he says today). I am also not convinced (why is anyone else?) that Nessa is innocent. I am not even fully convinced that Manwe is a wolf. Vamos a ver...

[Cailín]

Oh and Manwe, if you are so innocent (and after toDay I doubt you are), please share some of your thoughts on the rest of the players. In other words: leave some trails. :p

Sorry - I always seem to be double posting.

[skip spence]

Yeah, I'll be away toMorrow (Thursday/Friday) and it's doubtful if I can make an appearance then I'm afraid, though I'll promise to try best as I can. If nothing out of the ordinary happens I fully intend to vote Boro just so you know.

I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.
Maybe I was unclear as well. What I don't understand was this: what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Now for packing. Should at least check the thread out before DL but will probably not be that productive.

Edit: x'ed with 2 Cailin

[Aganzir]

Oh and Manwe, if you are so innocent (and after toDay I doubt you are), please share some of your thoughts on the rest of the players. In other words: leave some trails.
Well at least his death will be more convenient for the wolves than any other wolf's (with the exception of Nessa if she's one) because the only person he talked about was ed...

what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?
Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

It's of course possible Pitch's first suggestion was Nessa and that's why he went after her so strongly the following day.

[wilwarin538]

Finally, I have a break to curl up on my couch with tea and just relax! I should be able to pop on here and there until DL.

I'll do this now, since things likely won't change:

++Manwe

Though I do agree that it seems very likely Shasta dreamt of a Manwe-wolf, there is this tiny part of me that is remembering the last (and only other) time Shasta was a Seer, where after he died we were convinced he had dreamt a wolf, but we were wrong. I do think this time is different though, because he's approached it in a different way then he did last time (with the red-green thing, it's far clearer, last time it was a vague suspicion), and I don't think he would do that same thing twice, but I'm still slightly paranoid. :rolleyes:

I will come back on in a bit and give my opinion on everyone else.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, here goes. If nothing else, we all need to vote together.

++Manwe

[Boromir88]

Well now obviously all those who voted for Manwe now can't possibly be innocent. This is so strange.

I guess Manwe's a wolf and his pack has decided no point to argue about the seer, let's fight another day.

Or he's innocent and the wolves are licking their chops at the smell of victory.

Either way my vote won't matter today, but on a matter of principle, I won't vote.

[Rikae]

I've been relying too heavily on what others reported about Shasta, and I feel the need to look for myself.
Ok, so... Shasta's statements about everyone, by Day.

Day One:

"Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable."
"We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on.
And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.""Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far)." "No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.""I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks ).""On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely."When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now."As of right now I'll probably be voting for Lottie"(votes for Lottie without comment)

I see no dream-hints here at all. Thus we can assume his first dream was innocent, but that's all
this shows. Perhaps he dreamt of Kitanna? If he dreamt of an ordo, I would expect something more clear than this, unless he deemed clarity too dangerous to be worth the trouble at this early point. Going by his later list (Agan, Legate & me) either Agan or I could have been
the dream here.

Day Two

"I don't like this. Legate goes out of his way to say how suspicious Inzil's first post makes him, and finishes with "I suspect him but I don't really".""I'm not sure how Wilwa's defense of her vote strikes me - the tone seems innocent enough, but I can't help but wonder if Wilwa is deflecting attention from the Sally-wagon for some reason.""Legate's #174... something strikes me as 'off' there. I'm not sure what, exactly, but it's the part about "well this is why I suspected Lottie yesterday, but I don't suspect her anymore" when he doesn't go on to explain exactly why, just referencing 'her later posts'.""I've never played a game with Cailin by herself, I don't think, but as of #178 I adore her!""Rikae raises a good point here, I think.""Re: Pitch's #183 - Why would a Nessa Wolfrunya be hinting at a Seer-Rikae in the first place? I don't understand it.""I don't think Mac's been passive at all, actually - in my opinion he's been one of the louder voices."

"Re: Kitanna's #195 - oy gevalt.""I'm not sure I agree with you. That Sallywagon sprang up awfully late in the day, to be purely-innocent driven.""Eomer is rather emphatic and callous normally - I think this is probably just a playstyle reference""After Mac's post calling him out for defending PItch yesterday, all this looks like to me is damage-control distancing." (Of Boro)

"First you're "paranoid" about Inzil, but then you won't "put any weight to it", but now you're "starting to suspect" him, but wait, no, you're just "merely wary"?" (To Legate)

(Couple comments about Zil being suspicious).

"Having to 'make oneself look innocent' implies that one is not in fact innocent - otherwise why make yourself look like something that you already are? Does this mean you suspect Nessa, Cailin?""Regarding Skip and his hunter claim - I don't buy it. I think he was just looking for an epic 1000th post."
"I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role.""What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'." (To Mac)


List (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645915&postcount=252)

Feels good about Eomer, Agan, Cailin, me, Mac, Kitanna and Lommy. Of these, his statements on Eomer and I are similar and these and the one on Agan (and Kitanna, of course) are the strongest statements. Cailin & Lommy are "no warning signs" and Mac "I hope I'm not giving him a pass...".

His comments on ???'s Skip and Manwe suggest he might dream them.

Feels slightly bad about Boro, Pitch, Nessa, Wilwa. Comment about Pitch looks like future dream possibility, too.

Feels moderately bad about Lottie & Inzil.

"No-nonsense bad" about Legate.

"I will say I don't like the idea of lynching Kitanna as per my idea earlier. I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be .""Hum. I don't like Lottie's vote. At all." (votes Lottie) "And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so."Day 3:

"Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!) "

"Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa."
"Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him.""Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.""Hum. Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance.My mind's made up."(votes Inzil)

"Also, Inzil now jumping on Boro? Really?"Clearly does point to a Legate-innocent dream.

Day 4:

List (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646281&postcount=459)

Manwe tops his list to "look at today". Lots of people, however, are on that list... actually, everyone except Nessa, me, Legate and Agan is either "under the radar", "pinging my radar", and/or needs to be "looked at today". We four are the only ones he gives a clear opinion on. He also flipflops from his stance of the day before on Nessa without much reason.

List (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646282&postcount=460)

As much discussed already, me, Agan and Legate in the "green" list. Green-yellow has Nessa at the top. Too ambiguous if he dreamt her, or does he just want to avoid making his change of opinion to obvious? Wilwa and Cailin here too, Skip, Ed & Mac yellow, Boro,
Greenie, Pitch & Manwe yellow-orange. Doesn't seem like a good idea for a seer to put a dreamed wolf in such a big group. As mentioned, no red.

Manwe (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646347&postcount=493)-analysis
(http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646347&postcount=493)
I don't agree with those who say this analysis looks like it's designed to back up his conclusion, but this:
"I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category."does look meaningful. It would make sense as a way to slightly obscure/justify his dream, but how, then, to explain his change of opinion on
Nessa? Not because of Manwe being a wolf, certainly, as he voted for Ed - possibly just to prepare for a shift to going after Manwe.

Analysis of Cailin (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646352&postcount=495%20Wishy-washy%20conclusions.)

"Also, re: Agan - if you're 'green' it means I don't plan to vote you - and I wouldn't plan to vote the cobbler in any case."Regarding his Agan/cobbler comments: she was generally considered cobblerish, and calling her innocentish would have made both her and Shasta
more conspicuous. I still think she's a dreamed innocent.


"I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though."By itself, doesn't support the Mänwe dream - he did go after Legate pretty intensely. The best cases for a Mänwe-wolf I can see are the "red category" line and Mänwe's own behavior toDay, which is wolfish enough without any seer hints involved.

Defends (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646364&postcount=507) his suspicions to Mänwe

"I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping." (to Pitch)

"While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all."Ok, didn't dream Nessa.

"To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now."I know what he means, though I'm not suspected by Mac (and why not?)

"Honestly, I think more people have said Skip looks like a better choice." (To Legate, on Cailin)

"That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all. " (to Legate)

"Also, Pitch - "more and more creepy"? You need to explain yourself, considering that the last time you mentioned me you were agreeing with me about Mac."(votes Skip) "To put him up there. I don't really like the Elronhubbard vote or the Legate vote and I don't agree with the Nessa vote today."Yeah, likely dreams: Me/Agan, Agan/me, Legate, Mänwe. Not totally sure, but if Mänwe is innocent, he is also the wolfiest looking innocent under suspicion
I have ever seen, so:

++Mänwe

Even if Shasta didn't dream him, he's still a good bet for a wolf.

[Rikae]

Also, I don't doubt the wolves saw the writing on the wall and decided to throw Manwe under the bus some time ago. I'm not going to put much stock on when people voted - after all, innocents have reason to be very cautious at this time, while wolves probably want to cut their losses and make themselves look as good as possible.

If I hadn't concluded she was a known innocent, in fact, I would have suspected Agan for being too quick on the trigger.

That's not to say Boro looks any more innocent to me because of his principles, either.

[Aganzir]

Either way my vote won't matter today, but on a matter of principle, I won't vote.
Aww Boro you're so sweet! I feel almost bad about probably having to lynch you tomorrow. :p

Doesn't seem like a good idea for a seer to put a dreamed wolf in such a big group. As mentioned, no red.
Yeah but he couldn't possibly put him down as red all of a sudden, that would've been a giveaway.

If I hadn't concluded she was a known innocent, in fact, I would have suspected Agan for being too quick on the trigger.
Yeah I would probably have done the same as a wolf. :p

[wilwarin538]

My thoughts on everyone.

My guess at who the other 3 wolves are: Skip, Mac and either Greenie or Cailin. And yes, that is mostly on gut feeling. I feel very good about Legate, Nessa and Agan, and fairly good about Rikae.

Gotta go now. Hopefully this goes well!

x'ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Mac & Boro didn't look wolfish, Mac made the most sense, Mac is objective. Nessa & skip are worrisome. That's basically what ed said about us. I wonder if her death was an attempt to frame an innocent skip or Nessa... at first glance it certainly points away from Mac - which might be the plan, or might not.

[Boromir88]

Still not buying into Manwe's wolvery. The ranger would still pose a problem, the wolves would know this, they wouldn't just give Manwe up so easily, and Manwe wouldn't bow out defeated. Not with the ranger still around.

Granted, Manwe hasn't looked so innocent today, even without Shasta's posts, but a wolf in Manwe's situation would attempt to get the Ranger out. Ok, maybe I shouldn't say this as a sure thing, but at least I would.

[Rikae]

a wolf in Manwe's situation would attempt to get the Ranger out. Ok, maybe I shouldn't say this as a sure thing, but at least I would.

Shame you didn't think of that last Night, eh? ;)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.

Yes, I was thinking of that too, actually, even of the chance of Macwolf slipping while talking to a fellow Wolf: as in, writing e.g. "I will do it toMorrow." Hmm, wait, I should actually add "if you are alive", otherwise it might seem like I know he will be. - And then forgetting it about himself. Such things can happen. (Or of course the simpler variant of him being a Wolf alone.)

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.
Obviously that, and by now we can see it (it was clear to me already before I saw the rest). However, possibly there was some confusion about procedure among the WWs, given how reluctantly the "everybody votes Manwe" thing started.

That means we have one wrong lynch left, i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.
How optimistic of you (if you are innocent), however something in these words strikes me as false. As for not defending yourself, that's actually one of the things that I did not like about you, I mean, why not at least respond to people - at least to me, for instance, if I am a known innocent. Or something like that.

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

Quite so, quite so... And if you, for some mysterious and disgusting reason, are a Wolf and Mänwe isn't, thanks for putting the blame on me by effectively using my words as the reason for making the other players vote Mänwe :p

EDIT: x-ed since Rikae's horribly long post

[Aganzir]

Granted, Manwe hasn't looked so innocent today, even without Shasta's posts, but a wolf in Manwe's situation would attempt to get the Ranger out. Ok, maybe I shouldn't say this as a sure thing, but at least I would.
Oh, really? :p Not all wolves are like you though.

Just for the sake of it (I'm sorry I'm advising the gifteds all the time!), I don't think the ranger should come out as long as we have known innocents alive unless she's in danger of being lynched or makes a successful save that isn't any of the current known innocents.

[Aganzir]

Quite so, quite so... And if you, for some mysterious and disgusting reason, are a Wolf and Mänwe isn't, thanks for putting the blame on me by effectively using my words as the reason for making the other players vote Mänwe :p
Aww actually I did that just because I didn't want to quote myself! (I said earlier that it's an offense to Shasta if we ignore Mänwe after how he talked of him.)

[Boromir88]

Oh, really? :p Not all wolves are like you though.


Yes but the option of fake revealing when there's still gifteds around is in the basic repetoire of any cornered wolf.

I just happen to fake reveal even when not backed into any corner. :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

Shame you didn't think of that last Night, eh? ;)
Although actually, I believe a Borowolf probably would have thought of it. I've seen his love of false-reveals in action before.
That means two of those I listed earlier have reasons against their wolvishness (Mac because of the Oz-kill). I recall a similar reason being given wrt... Greenie?... and Wilwa has done a couple innocentish-looking things. By process of elimination, then, our best bets may be Skip, Nessa & Cailin.
I'll have to weigh all of this (the idea of these as a pack, and the non-wolf evidence for the others) toMorrow, though. IF I'm still alive, that is. :p

Edit: X'd with Boro, amusingly enough.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Still not buying into Manwe's wolvery. The ranger would still pose a problem, the wolves would know this, they wouldn't just give Manwe up so easily, and Manwe wouldn't bow out defeated.

And what other choice would they have now? To try to save him and get easily discerned by their votes? "So the Day ended with one Wolf being lynched, only three people of the whole village voted for saving him." Most interesting, just who might the remaining three Wolves be?

No, I think if Mänwe is a Wolf, then once the "train had left the station" (the Day started), it was too late.

Btw - I don't quite like Agan's overeagerness in her suspicions of Mänwe and then immediately Boro, sort of reminding me of the bloodthirsty part of the French revolution (one head - okay, next!), but I still hope her innocent.

Like I said, I am most suspicious of Mac, then possibly Boro, and with questionmarks wilwa/Cailín/skip.

Hmm, seems I am totally forgetting about Nessa, now it occured to me... but I am really wondering about her being just a victim of one big frame... or...

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[skip spence]

Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

Sounds overly complicated to me but I'm taking notes for future reference. ;)

---

Well, here goes.

[Aganzir]

Sounds overly complicated to me but I'm taking notes for future reference. ;)
That's the part I love the most about wolvery.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Aww actually I did that just because I didn't want to quote myself! (I said earlier that it's an offense to Shasta if we ignore Mänwe after how he talked of him.)
How unusually humble.

That's the part I love the most about wolvery.

I hope that's not a self-confession.

[Macalaure]

What exactly do you think makes you more suspicious than say Boro?Eh, just overreacted after a few people said they were suspicious of me and gave actually convincing reasons. :rolleyes:


The thing about Boro I don't get: Wolf-Boro would have to expect that the real cobbler would get lynched (or accidentally killed) eventually. He'd have to be quite confident to think he can pull it off to fool us. Maybe he's just feeling experimental? Ordos are usually most prone to just trying something. Or maybe he knew it was a suicide mission in the long run, but thought he could avoid a seer dream this way and secure the two-kill advantage long enough?


His posts toDay make me feel a lot better about Skip.

(Of course, I'm only saying this so I don't have to actually come up with a justification for my over-confident knee-jerk suspicion. ;) )

[Aganzir]

I hope that's not a self-confession.
It is- wait no!

Eh, just overreacted after a few people said they were suspicious of me and gave actually convincing reasons. :rolleyes:
Sure. :p

[Rikae]

Eh, just overreacted after a few people said they were suspicious of me and gave actually convincing reasons. :rolleyes:

So, were you convinced? :p

[Rikae]

Quick, everybody retract and vote for me.

[Boromir88]

To Melkor with principles...

++Manwe

[Aganzir]

WOLF WIN! :D














(just kidding)

[Nogrod]

Deadline.

Mänwe dead in a few minutes... stay tuned.

[Macalaure]

You don't believe me? :Merisu:

[Nogrod]

Agan: Okay, Mänwe is the best course. That’s the thing you can read from what Shasta said yesterday.

Mac: Exactly. Mänwe is a known traitor now…

Cailín: But aren’t there other ways of reading it?”

Agan: You look bad for saying that now Cailín.

Rikae: Shouldn't we look at those other possibilities?

Agan: Well nothing’s gonna change my mind...

Legate: You know, Mänwe is the best bet.

wilwa: Some of those Shasta dreamt of might have died though?

Mac: Let’s get this over with, it’s Mänwe.

Greenie: I agree, lynching Mänwe is our best bet today.

Cailín: I’m not wholly convinced by this Mänwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted.

Legate: Well, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely.

Skip: It would be foolish to ignore Mänwe today.

Cailín: But wouldn’t Shasta have been more clear of it if he actually had a traitor dreamed of, just asking?

Boro: Yes, why are you assuming Shasta dreamt of Mänwe? It doesn’t make sense with what he said.

Legate: Well Boro, I could imagine Shasta dreaming of Mänwe.

Agan: Boro I don't know if I should laugh or cry...

Rikae: The Mänwe business is simply not as clear, contrary to what Agan says: "would be the first..." sounds more like a plan to dream him rather than a reference to an already dreamed traitor.

Legate: I think it is quite plausible that he dreamed of him. I’ll give him the fourth vote.

Nessa: Mänwe is my likely vote today.

Boro: If he had dreamed of a Mänwe wolf, I would think a Shasta-seer would convey this more clearly and finally put an end to the wolves double kills.

Agan: I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour.

Greenie: Sure thing. I’m voting Mänwe.

Cailín: Okay then, as you wish. But if Mänwe is not a wolf, we are all doomed.

wilwa: It is very likely Shasta dreamt of a traitor Mänwe. He said red anyway.

Nessa: If nothing else, we all need to vote together.

Rikae: Doesn't seem like a good idea for a seer to put a dreamed wolf in such a big group of yellow-orange. As mentioned, no red... but even if Shasta didn't dream him, he's still a good bet for a wolf.


~*~

Melkor had been overhearing the discussion with a smile that got ever wider.

"This has been the best day of the whole experiment! Look at how they eat something, anything suggested to them and even if their reason says to them it's all in the thin air - they go with the flow... even if those who really put some effort to thinking about the arguments differ - and even those find a way to join the chorus some other way of whim. Splendid! If mortal Maiar are this easily taken in when promised it's not their own neck that would be put on fire - they don't want to rock the boat then - so how easy will it be with the humans? I do love this experiment!"

"Should we pay them a visit mylord?" Sauron asked standing beside his Master.

"Nah... let them continue the learning-process."


~*~

"Everyone has their weapons?"

"Let's hit simultaneously, everyone!"

"Yeah, let's get him!"

"I'm not joining... well... to heck with principles, give me a sword as well."



And they all fell their weapons on poor Mänwe, the innocent Maia.



The living:

Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy



The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.
Eomer of the Rohirrim – (Innocent) An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs; skinned, gutted and sank into his own blood on N4.
Blind Guardian –(Innocent) A spirit of evil ways; skinned, gutted and sank into her own blood on N4.
Pitchwife - (Cobbler) Tender of Oromë's dogs; killed by the Maiar on D4.
elronds_daughter - (Innocent) A spirit of no-nonsense; sliced and cubed into a "hearty stew" between a discussion on theology on N5.
Shastanis Althreduin - (Seer) A spirit of water; sliced and cubed into a "hearty stew" between a discussion on theology on N5.
Mänwe - (Innocent) A spirit of short acquintances; unanimously killed with a blow from everyone on D5.




It is Night 6 now.

Wolves and the ranger; whether there is a toMorrow is in your hands now.

[Nogrod]

“Okay mates, just two correct picks tonight and we’re victorious.” § said leering.

“So whom will the ranger defend tonight?” @ asked.

“I think it depends on who xe is…” ¤ commented wryly.

“And what kind of tactics xe sticks to.” # added.

“We have there some whom are generally regarded as known innocents. Let’s pick them. If there is a save the village will be at the worst possible situation.” § suggested.

“But wouldn’t the ranger think about that? Quite good odds for xem…” ¤ doubted.

“Let’s pick the most suspicious-looking of the rest then. The ranger surely isn’t protecting them?” @ suggested in turn.

“Unless xe goes through that very same thought-process and foresees our decision.” # warned.

“So let’s just stand here to the rest of the days and do nothing?” § said now clearly annoyed.

“We could toss a coin?” @ asked.

“Let’s go and just pick someone.” § demanded. “Like now.”

“You might be right.” # said and took off towards the sleeping Maiar.


Macalaure and Cailín were sleeping when the swords hit them, two swords each. They were instantly dead.


“Did we make it?” ¤ asked hesitantly.

“Of course we did! Heh-heh…. hoo-hoohoo!” § rejoiced.

“Wait a minute! Someone’s stalking us!” # said in firm voice.

“It’s right behind me!” @ yelled when it heard a sword swing behind it’s back.

They all turned to face the intruder only to see a shape in the shadows.

“You’re not touching @! I’m protecting @!” the shape yelled.

“You’re the ranger?” ¤ asked a bit baffled.

“Yeah, and no one’s gonna even split a hair from @!” the ranger said determinately.

“Hah… oooh… it’s just too hilarious!” § started laughing.

There was a roar of laughter in the dark corridor when all the four traitors realized what had happened. Suddenly it was accompanied by a deeper and louder bellowing – Melkor was there as well.


“You have proved yourself worthy minions to me, my traitors! I would have liked to have learned more of the frailty of a mortal psychology, but I guess I will be having naturally born mortals to test with in abundance from now on…” He looked at the four traitors and the frozen ranger and then let his eyes to wander where the last three remaining innocents slept.

“Okay. Finish your job now. You’ll then join the defense of Angband as proven aides to my lieutenant Sauron. “

The four traitors went for their last victims in a frenzy of relief, screaming death.

None of the innocent Maiar who entered the dungeon a few decades ago managed to come out from there alive. But all the four traitors marched out from there to see once again the sky and the ground of Middle Earth.

Nothing is known about their destinies ever since but it is supposed they were taken to defend Angband from the siege of Noldor. Of their souls there is no account.


The living:

wilwarin538 – (Traitor) Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya – (Traitor) The patron of town criers across the world
Boromir88 – (Traitor) A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
Skip Spence – (Traitor) A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences


The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.
Eomer of the Rohirrim – (Innocent) An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs; skinned, gutted and sank into his own blood on N4.
Blind Guardian –(Innocent) A spirit of evil ways; skinned, gutted and sank into her own blood on N4.
Pitchwife - (Cobbler) Tender of Oromë's dogs; killed by the Maiar on D4.
elronds_daughter - (Innocent) A spirit of no-nonsense; sliced and cubed into a "hearty stew" between a discussion on theology on N5.
Shastanis Althreduin - (Seer) A spirit of water; sliced and cubed into a "hearty stew" between a discussion on theology on N5.
Mänwe - (Innocent) A spirit of short acquintances; unanimously killed with a blow from everyone on D5.
Macalaure – (Innocent) Carmótar, the Maia of housework; pierced by two swords on N6.
Caílin – (Innocent) A spirit of secrecy; pierced by two swords on N6.
Rikae – (Innocent) A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity; hacked to pieces in the frenzy of the traitors on the starting of D6.
A Little Green – (Innocent) A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming ; hacked to pieces in the frenzy of the traitors on the starting of D6.
Legate of Amon Lanc – (Innocent) A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space... ; hacked to pieces in the frenzy of the traitors on the starting of D6.
Aganzir – (Ranger) Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire ; hacked to pieces in the frenzy of the traitors on the starting of D6.



THE WOLVES DECLARE A PERFECT & DEVASTATING VICTORY!


Time to gloat! Time to wail!

[Macalaure]

*wail*

[Rikae]

Last time I go along with the crowd on anything, I tell you.

I hate to think how Shasta must have reacted to yesterDay...

[Pitchwife]

*applauds*

[satansaloser2005]

See what happens when you lynch me? Bad things! :(

*comforts Mac, starts up a rousing game of kick the muffins*

[Nogrod]

I hate to think how Shasta must have reacted to yesterDay...He must have quite a bruised forehead from all the headdesking. :(

And you guys were lynching the wolves basically everyDay - normally you had two of them to lead the votes... and in the last moment you decided to let go of them! :eek:

The wolves singlehandedly took down twenty villagers without even one casualty of their own! That might be a record of some sort?

Cheers to the wolves for heart-stopping boldness - and well, some good luck as well.

So many of you villagers were on the right tracks, such many times... Tough going this time.

[Macalaure]

Easily the worst game I ever played as an ordo. *shakes head*

Protecting Nessa all along, being among the loudest at declaring Boro the cobbler and lynching Mänwe. Even when I got things right - suspecting Boro early and Skip later, I let go and got it all wrong.

Congrats to the wolves, though! Very well and very sneakily played.

[Inziladun]

*Ouch*

Well, that was grim, indeed. I saved a wolf, but I went out voting for one anyway. :rolleyes:

[Cailín]

How embarrassing. The wolves were perfect -of course- but the ordinary villagers exceptionally foolish. Including myself here. Boromir88, you must have been awfully amused while "desperately pushing" for a Nessa-lynch.

To Shasta: this Manwe thing was so not your fault. Also not mine or Rikae's. :p

[Aganzir]

Facepalm.

Whoops.

From now on I'll always trust my gut. Skip I hate you! Wilwa I hate you too (I had my doubts about you but never paid enough attention to you)! And why why why did we leave Nessa alive all those days? Boro what on earth were you up to?

[/rant]

Awesome job, wolves (& cobbler).

Guess who I protected last night? That's right: skip. I thought I could as well roll a die so it was kind of random. I would've been so mad if Mac had been a wolf because I protected him twice, though (and Lottie & Greenie once).

[Pitchwife]

To Shasta: this Manwe thing was so not your fault. Also not mine or Rikae's. :p
Seconded.

Also, the deep and fitting irony that the last Day of this game ended with lynching the Elder King.

[Aganzir]

Easily the worst game I ever played as an ordo. *shakes head*
Ehehe I could say the same, except the other time I was the ranger (Legate & Greenie did you get my hint(s)?) I was lynched on day 2 after a heavy quarrel with the hunter.

Being the first to declare Boro the cobbler. Analysing skip and concluding he looked innocent enough (I was having doubts because I have noticed I have a tendency to always suspect him). Starting the bandwagon against Pitch when we should have lynched skip. And forgetting all about wilwa after my day 2 bad feeling about her! Fail.

By the way who did Kit hunt?

[Nogrod]

By the way who did Kit hunt?On D1 she picked Sally. She changed it to Pitchie on N2 and held with him to the end.

[Aganzir]

On D1 she picked Sally. She changed it to Pitchie on N2 and held with him to the end.
And you didn't let her take him with her? Grrrr! :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Agan didn't see the hint in my first post of the game, apparently. :(

N1 - Agan
N2 - Eomer
N3 - Legate
N4 - Rikae
N5 - Skip

[Pitchwife]

Awesome job, wolves (& cobbler).

Amen about the wolves, but as for me, I don't think so. This was actually one of my cluelessest games ever. When I tell you who I thought the wolves were on my last Day living, you'll all gonna laugh your heads off. Somehow though I seem to have done the real wolves no lasting harm (despite stubbornly suspecting and voting one of them for half the game!), which is no small marvel.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, that was just amazing. I mean, sure, I am on the losing side, but I cannot help to feel wonderful about this game. Aside from the "minor" thing that I have been enjoying it since the beginning till the end (except for the moments when I wailed each Evening over the revelation what was the role of the lynched one), I agree with that it must be some sort of record to have four WWs surviving till the very end.

And you were all quite good, I mean, the pack was really "standard", up to the point of being totally unsuspicious. I mean: all this stuff about Nessa really being a Wolf, all this thing about people who were unsuspicious being really innocent - no double-bluffs, it was in fact quite plain, especially the thing about Nessa, like I said on the thread, we can now surely call her a survivalist Wolf. Such narrow escapes, for so long!

I must say I am however really happy for being right about Agan one time, resp. about not suspecting Agan and she still being innocent. I mean, wow.

And Mänwe! I am so sorry for participating in lynching you! But hey, even in spite of that, I am glad that except for the fail on last Day, I have been right about you and defended you even when the crusade started. Silly us, that was a total fail with the presumption about Shasta's last dream. But I mean, for a Seer, this game must have been a horror - he could easily get into deficite over one Night, just imagine, you dream two innocents during first two Nights and next Night they can both be dead and you can start anew. I consider it a small miracle Shasta managed to dream of three people who remained still alive.

Brilliant job, Wolves, what more to say...

Ehehe I could say the same, except the other time I was the ranger (Legate & Greenie did you get my hint(s)?)
Um... no? What hints might that have been?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Amen about the wolves, but as for me, I don't think so. This was actually one of my cluelessest games ever. When I tell you who I thought the wolves were on my last Day living, you'll all gonna laugh your heads off. Somehow though I seem to have done the real wolves no lasting harm (despite stubbornly suspecting and voting one of them for half the game!), which is no small marvel.

So, who? Care to share? :) We won't laugh (too much)... at least I'd be interested to know.

[Aganzir]

Agan didn't see the hint in my first post of the game, apparently. :(
Aaaaaaaaahlögdzhöadbgvl! *headdesk* I was like, "That's weird, why should he say so?" but didn't draw the connection to myself and then forgot about it because I usually only skim through people's IC banter anyway.

That was so stupid of me. Seriously.

Another stupid thing is, I found your comments on Legate seerish on your last day but you were suspected so much I didn't think the wolves would kill you. Of course it's hard to predict who they kill when you have no idea who they are, but still. :rolleyes:

*goes to the corner to sulk*