Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death [Archive] - Page 2

Mänwe

11-30-2012, 06:36 PM

I've been having a look over the voters who made Sally and Eomer their choice of lynch a number of whom have since been revealed as innocent which obviously sets them aside from our suspicions. But the battle between Sally, Morsul and Pom has been the liveliest really and coming away from another read through it just seems all typical early day back and forth.

Morsul starts out from #17 and until around #78, his posts are largely banter and stating his like for the phantoplan and dislike for an Isildur reveal. Mirroring what others were thinking.

His vote in #112 is also based on what someone else had said- namely phantom, and Sally is his choice also because its a gut feeling, he isn't confident enough by his vague suspicion of Nerwen. Thus Sally's votes are doubled. A relatively safe vote..and typical for Day 1. #124 is the beginning of the sparring between him and Sally, his jokey sounding defense of his vote for her.

Initially striking me as not all that evil but the content of his posts just aren't saying anything which in turn to me suggests flying beneath the radar.

His reaction to a Boro kill is relief= #141 that Eomer wasn't Elendil, and no doubt that he hadn't voted Eomer at all. As those who had might reasonably come under scrutiny. Then follows an odd passage of posts that see him muddle the roles/rules and a few times he can be seen to be waiting for someone else to post and only then to respond. #207 states he still only has suspicions and is still wondering.

He then picks up his suspicion briefly of Nerwen #213 and reiterates shes too clean. Then has to deal with more flak from Sally about his suspicions and supposed relation with Pom. His next post #225 is then to state he's looking into Pom but only finds something interesting, before in #231 he reiterates the flavour of a number of his posts- he has no inkling of who to vote for.

#245 is leaning now toward Pom, think he's getting sick of you Sally :P

Like Shasta, its all wishy washy. And it's been ever present, so he's one of those id consider voting for.

I was doing Sally too but Shasta has been very efficient- but my stance on her at the moment is innocence. So I won't be voting for her.

Morsul the Dark

11-30-2012, 06:43 PM

His reaction to a Boro kill is relief= .

Won't argue against your other interpretations though I disagree with them
This point however is incorrect. I was initially relieved that Boro and Eomer were not Erendil something I thought true at that time. We think Boro was most likely Erendil afterall.

Also I did wait for others to post because I didn't want to double and triple post throughout the day.

Mänwe

11-30-2012, 06:51 PM

Fair enough, it was the wording that made me raise my eyebrow when I read it the first time but for sake of putting thoughts to paper I included it. This Sally, Pom, banter could do with a dream.

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 06:57 PM

Hello again– and sorry for lack of participation. I just haven't been able to get online.

the phantom

11-30-2012, 07:03 PM

Okay, so going off my master list (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676794&postcount=109) from yesterday here's the six people I came into the day slightly more willing to vote for-
Morsul, Lottie, Steve, Sally, Inzil, Nerwen

To go with my earlier voting hypotheses (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676927&postcount=224)- Inzil and Sally receive elevation and Morsul, Lottie, and Steve receive slight elevation. Conveniently all 5 rank in my bottom 6 from yesterday.

That's either very encouraging or very worrisome, in that there is a clearly paved road leading to these five people. If the non-voters Manwe and Nerwen are the culprits (joining with Pom) then I'd say we're in trouble.

What do people think of reactions early today to various theories on what Boro was and why he was killed? That's what I'm looking at currently- post to come....

Brinniel

11-30-2012, 07:09 PM

Known Innocent:
Brinn
Phantom
Shasta

Feeling Good About:
Lottie - Her defense of Pom makes me feel better about her. I don't think she would so obviously defend her if they were both evil. And if Pom's innocent, why defend her when she could potentially be an easy lynch?
Sally - In general she seems okay and has given me no reason to suspect her. Her suspicion of Pom seems more genuine compared to others; for one thing, it's understandable for an innocent to automatically feel suspicious of someone who votes against them. I was wavering on placing Sally in the not sure category, but for now I'm more inclined to think her innocent.

Not Sure:
Manwe - I haven't heard enough from him to get an idea about which side he might be on.
Nerwen - I have no vibes on her right now.
Eonwe - I've seen people make points against him and perhaps he has made a few iffy comments. But at this point, I really can't tell whether he may be good or evil.

Watching:
Pom - She's on my watch list because I can see a possibility of her being evil, but I won't vote for her toDay for the reasons I stated previously.

Suspicious:
Inzil - His suspicions against Pom feel like they could be fabricated.
Morsul - Same as Inzil, plus he keeps making slips as others have pointed out. While I have seen innocents make many suspicious slips, it could be just as easily a sloppy KM.

Mänwe

11-30-2012, 07:14 PM

Sally's was rather dramatic..and it took her about 40 minutes to calm down and then post making light of the situation.

the phantom

11-30-2012, 07:16 PM

There's something you've forgotten, Phantom, dear, or at least something missing from your mathulations. In the event of Shasta's death, the role of the next gifted on the list is revealed to a random ordo.
That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil. :(

Loslote

11-30-2012, 07:20 PM

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil. :(

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.

Inziladun

11-30-2012, 07:25 PM

Feeling Good AboutSally - In general she seems okay and has given me no reason to suspect her. Her suspicion of Pom seems more genuine compared to others; for one thing, it's understandable for an innocent to automatically feel suspicious of someone who votes against them. I was wavering on placing Sally in the not sure category, but for now I'm more inclined to think her innocent.

Suspicious:
Inzil - His suspicions against Pom feel like they could be fabricated.

I fail to see how Sally's suspicions of Pom are necessarily more justified than mine, when Pom voted for me YesterDay.

x/d with Lottie

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 07:25 PM

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil. :(

Fair enough. I was just thinking of the slight advantage of having, for instance, Agan know that Nog is Isildur. If Agan reveals it rather than Nog doing it himself, then we know (or rather, can likely conclude) we can trust both of them, rather than just the one. But yes, you're correct, and I'm certainly not saying I want Shasta killed. I don't want the mean men to hurt my favorite psychic. :(

EDIT: x'd since the quoted Phantom

the phantom

11-30-2012, 07:36 PM

That's true to an extent, Lottie- but only if said Ordo can bury some sort of "X is Isildur/Anarion" code in their posts to point back to, because they can't ever know at what point Isildur/Anarion actually wants them to step out and reveal them and the Ordo would probably be reluctant. And there's the added layer of one of the KMs successfully doing it as a bluff. If I was a KM without a doubt I'd have a list of top Gifted prospects and at this point it'd be very small for each role. So they just bury a code and then when Isildur/Anarion outs they point to it and *bang* they're a "proven" Ordo. Then the other Ordo steps up & says "no you're not" and then it's a fight that the KMs are more likely to win given their automatic voting loyalty block.

But anyway, still working on a reactions post from earlier today....

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 07:37 PM

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.
...But Lottie, what if they're both KMs?

EDIT:X'd with phantom.

Loslote

11-30-2012, 07:41 PM

Fair point. Ah, well, it was nice to think about in theory. :/

the phantom

11-30-2012, 07:41 PM

Leaving for home, finally. I'll finish up my more intriguing & possibly useful post when I get there...

Eönwë

11-30-2012, 08:00 PM

Ok, looking through people's posts now. First up, Pom.

Day 1
Looking at her posts, she seems fine. I'm not sure about her list, but then again, it was Day 1, and there really was very little to go on. And despite what Shasta says, I actually think what she's saying about Inzil isn't unreasonable or hypocritical; what I think she's saying is that he's stating the obvious too much, and stepping back from his criticisms unnecessarily, which is fair enough.

Day 2
She's definitely more mixed today.

Good:
She's the first person to mention phantom getting the N1 dream. Seems good in context, because people (myself included) were getting rather too caught up in the Boro-discussion, when really there was not much that could be known.

Eyebrow-raising:
Her obsession with the Morsul-voters here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676893#post676893), here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676895#post676895) and here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676897#post676897). Three posts in a row about it is a bit (read: very) excessive, not giving much of a chance for any response (only Nerwen gets a chance in that timeframe). But then, is it something a wolf would do? Seems quite risky.
Her last two paragraphs here here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676910#post676910) might be defending Morsul a little too much. However, I don't think packmates would be that obvious. I also can't judge fully until I've read his posts again.

Overall, I'm not sure why people are attacking Pom so much. She may not look perfect, but she doesn't actually seem very suspicious to me at the moment (this could change depending on my reread of Morsul).

edit: x-ed since Lottie
edit: just realised formatting was terrible

the phantom

11-30-2012, 08:17 PM

Early day reactions-
if Shasta dreamed Boro and boro was killed that means the KM anticipated Elendil's dream which in turn means they's is clever and I don't like clever wolves/KM they're tricky
Complimenting himself? It reads like it...
The assumption of failure here and accompanying "dismay" looks a bit odd. (speaking of Morsul)
I agree to this to an extent. I already said what I found suspicious about him yesterday, and his whole manner of saying things today is striking me the same way. But it's so darn consistent that I'm beginning to wonder if it's his style. In other words, I'm darn suspicious of Morsul, but simultaneously I worry that I could be perfectly backwards due to lack of familiarity.

Not to mention his formulations for yesterday's vote are in fact wrong (why he would make the vote choice given his assumption, as Sally pointed out I believe) and yet in the moment yesterday it's believable that he'd make a hasty gut-reaction mistake, where as if he is a KM he might've come up with a more logically sound reasoning in order to look better. Hmm.... I'm very undecided with Morsul. I think I'm leaning towards not voting for him today. At least if he stays alive longer I'll get to know him better for the future perhaps.
I find it difficult to see a Borondil putting himself out like that on Day One, whether accidentally or with intent. I like to think we still have Elendil with us.
This is what a KM would say if they were in fact not gunning for Elendil and yet being told that Boro clearly looked like Elendil. In other words, injured pride defending the kill choice.

Near the beginning when I wasn't entirely forthcoming with my Boro kill explanation this was said-
If it's something that'll help understand where we're at and what's going on, would you mind explaining it a bit for me?
Now it makes sense to request that I explain myself. Innocents want useful info naturally. But the fact that she qualified it by saying "Tell me IF it'd be useful to the village" seems somewhat fishy, as if she's a KM wanting a more accurate picture of how good her kill was, but she obviously can't request in that format thus she requests that I illuminate the situation "if it's for the good of the village". Interesting...

Now Sally- she jumps into examining people and doesn't get into the Boro issue much, which is a bit curious seeing how momentous it is. But of course for a KM the most important issue heading into today is setting up another innocent lynch, so really the Boro thing is just a big distraction.

There is much to think about...

the phantom

11-30-2012, 08:31 PM

I do not want to see the following lynched under any circumstance-
Shasta
Phantom
Brin

A pass for today-
Morsul
Steve

I haven't looked at these enough to be ready to consider them-
Manwe
Pom
Nerwen

I'd like to see these folks on the lynching block to see what arguments emerge and to see who receives backing from different folks etc.-
Sally
Lottie
Inzil

Galadriel55

11-30-2012, 08:32 PM

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.

Just to clarify - the ordo would not know that "X is Isildur", s/he would know that "X is gifted".

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 08:34 PM

Just to clarify - the ordo would not know that "X is Isildur", s/he would know that "X is gifted".

True, but the rules specify that the next living gifted in line is revealed. Thus, it would be Isildur who would be made known, even though the PM would not specify the role directly. Unless of course we're all wrong about Boro being the revealer, which would be a nice surprise indeed.

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 08:37 PM

Overall, I'm not sure why people are attacking Pom so much. She may not look perfect, but she doesn't actually seem very suspicious to me at the moment (this could change depending on my reread of Morsul).
Not sure I like this post. It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.

It's always hard for me to say anything about Morsul. He's almost always self-deprecatingly wrong, but it's practically impossible to tell how much of that is intentional (read: wolvish) and how much of that is just typical Morsul.
Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

Morsul the Dark

11-30-2012, 08:40 PM

Well I think I'll vote now if only to get the ball rolling on some discussion.

I think Pom was defending me from what frankly seem to be legitimate(if incorrect) points, a bit too strongly. SO either he's evil and trying to coerse me into voting Sally and get a wagon going or maybe it's the old wolf on wolf trick, I doubt that this early though. I'm thinking either one or the other is evil. As I've said before the amount of work Sally's spent on her observations of me seems too much hassle to try to frame me, so I think I'll vote Pom over her.

++POM

Edit: x'ed since moddess

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 08:42 PM

Someone needs to get Morsul back to his pond before he flips and flops himself to death.

the phantom

11-30-2012, 08:43 PM

Okay, so after reading more I'm also going to pass Pom into the free pass category (meaning I'd lynch someone else in an attempt to rescue them for the time being). Thus-

You will not vote for
Phantom
Shasta
Brin

You ought not vote for
Morsul
Steve
Pom

I'd rather you not vote for
Manwe
Nerwen

On trial
Sally
Lottie
Inzil

Morsul the Dark

11-30-2012, 08:44 PM

Someone needs to get Morsul back to his pond before he flips and flops himself to death.

no flip flop, I mentioned Lottie made an interesting point not that It had entirely thrown me off the idea of voting Pom, also you were far more consitent today than yesterday, so it made me feel better than yesterday.

x'ed phantom

Mänwe

11-30-2012, 08:50 PM

Eonwe, joins the day after the Shasta reveal.

#50 states whats been agreed and that there are drawbacks to each of the options and doesn't know which is best.

#64 asking for clarification on what option has been chosen- seems a little surprised at the choice that gives the greatest amount of information to the village.

#65 no real content

#68 states he's been thinking about the phantom '3 list' idea and emphasizes the need for random lists.

#72 lists the pros and cons to the options discussed..appearing helpful(?). submits his own suggestion that should a KM be revealed in a dream that they're revealed immediately without use of the list. I think that would go without saying, the village can play the percentage.

#83 is quick to defend himself from Inzil's accusation which turns out to be a misunderstanding.

#95 questions the wisdom of a night one dream reveal. Again perhaps showing like Inzil had, a slight dislike of the open reveal idea.

#111 states he thinks Eomer and Sally are iffy, he's mixed feelings about boro and Inzil and thinks Pom and Phantom are innocent. An early declare of innocence for Pom who comes under fire later in the day. At this moment most people believed phantom to be innocent so nothing there.

#113 nothing

#127 agrees with Brinn that Eomer's flip flop on vote was suspicious but reiterates he's not keen on Inzil still.

#134 votes Eomer at the last minute. He had two votes against him but wasn't particularly vocal in calling anyone out about them. ??

#200 nothing- post lost to a power cut

#202 points out he thinks Boro was Amandil (if i read that post right) but by this stage Shasta had already revealed..

#203 defends his Day 1 choice of Eomer to Pom- his reasoning matching the others who voted Eomer also.

#204 some private joke?

#267 overview of Pom- who he has said he believes to be innocent..and concludes that he doesn't see the suspicion surrounding Pom. So continuity is upheld from early Day 1 post saying feelings for Pom were good.

It's like a clearer more concise version of Morsul to me. I'm inclined to give him a miss for today over Morsul who is just that more.."washy".

x'd with all of the above:

Not sure I like this post. It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.

Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

That is the flip side

Inziladun

11-30-2012, 08:52 PM

I feel I've pretty much been dead weight thus far, but I'm hopeful I can make up for it now that the weekend's here.

After thinking things over and seeing the most recent posts, I'm now more inclined to go with Steve over Pom. As noted, his was one of the Eomer votes, and it still seems likely at least one of those was evil. I know it isn't me, and seemingly not Brinn. That leaves Sally and Steve, and of the two Steve looks worse, based upon toDay's activity.
What tipped the balance was Nerwen's # 272. If Steve turns out evil, then Pom is pretty well implicated.

++Steve

x/d with all since # 273. Yes, I'm that slow.

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 08:53 PM

I agree to this to an extent. I already said what I found suspicious about him yesterday, and his whole manner of saying things today is striking me the same way. But it's so darn consistent that I'm beginning to wonder if it's his style. In other words, I'm darn suspicious of Morsul, but simultaneously I worry that I could be perfectly backwards due to lack of familiarity.
It *is* his style. Seriously, he always plays like this regardless of role, thats the trouble.

Now Sally- she jumps into examining people and doesn't get into the Boro issue much, which is a bit curious seeing how momentous it is. But of course for a KM the most important issue heading into today is setting up another innocent lynch, so really the Boro thing is just a big distraction.
Ye-es... but you could just as easily say it would be in the KM's interest to keep the village talking about the Boro question instead of looking for wolves, couldn't you?

EDIT:X;d since self.

Loslote

11-30-2012, 08:54 PM

Near the beginning when I wasn't entirely forthcoming with my Boro kill explanation this was said-

Now it makes sense to request that I explain myself. Innocents want useful info naturally. But the fact that she qualified it by saying "Tell me IF it'd be useful to the village" seems somewhat fishy, as if she's a KM wanting a more accurate picture of how good her kill was, but she obviously can't request in that format thus she requests that I illuminate the situation "if it's for the good of the village". Interesting...

I'm terrible at hinting-type things. When I ask for clarification, I don't want to force a reveal of information that would be terrible if the wolves knew when they might not have noticed yet. Simple as that. I wanted to ask for the information without putting you in a too-tricky spot if you didn't want to share with everyone.

EDIT: xed since Manwe

Eönwë

11-30-2012, 08:57 PM

Day 1
Mostly lots of banter
Accepts the three-person list immediately, but that is kind of inevitable for someone arriving so late. Doesn't say anything either way.
Doesn't like the suggestion of using Isildur's power at all, especially on a Day 1. I suppose there are other schools of thought, but to me that's an opinion that seems to be on the side of the villagers. Of course, she certainly knows that, so it could be a nasty wolvish tactic just as easily.
I don't like this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676784&postcount=99) post. She's just agreeing without adding anything.
Calls out Morsul. Maybe a slightly excessively, but justifiably.

Conclusion: Not sure quite what it was that made me find her fishy yesterDay, but she seems quite all right to me so far.

Day 2
First one to seriously move away from the Boro discussion. Could go either way. A KM would want to start setting up a lynch; an innocent would want to start discussion on the Day ahead when it's clear that we won't know Boro's role for certain. The post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676885#post676885) in itself makes a lot of sense, though it is quite heavy for so early in the Morning. She's not messing around (well, she is, but she's also definitely going for it).
Posts thoughts on people (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676888#post676888), with some songs.
Not sure what to make of this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676890#post676890). Seems a bit contrived.
Rips apart Morsul's Day 1 logic (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676919#post676919). Such strong and consistent attacking doesn't seem too wolvish to me.

Conclusion: Other than this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=676890#post676890) post, she seems pretty good to me. I'm quite surprised at this outcome myself, given my suspicion of her yesterDay, but there you have it.

General comments: There's not going to be time for me to look through everyone, it seems. Manwe has said too little anyway, so there's not much I can say. Morsul seems just like a very skittish innocent at the moment, because I imagine a wolf would be more concerned with convincing others than himself. So that leaves Nerwen, Zil and Lottie for me to look at, and even then, only briefly (half an hour to DL).

edit: x-ed with phantom

Brinniel

11-30-2012, 09:02 PM

I fail to see how Sally's suspicions of Pom are necessarily more justified than mine, when Pom voted for me YesterDay.
That was yesterDay. Pom doesn't even mention you toDay, so she apparently no longer sees you enough as a threat to discuss.

I'm just saying that when an innocent is accused by a player, they are more likely to have their opinion of said player influenced since they know that accusation is false. Of course a baddie could retaliate too, but I think they'd be more subtle about it.

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 09:07 PM

So are all going to vote according to phantom's directions?

I'm sure he's really, really, enjoying himself right now...:rolleyes:

Eönwë

11-30-2012, 09:07 PM

Not sure I like this post. It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.
Well, there did seem to be a sudden wave of Pom-suspicion when I started that post, so I was expecting to see something incriminating, but couldn't. More surprise than anything.

edit: x-ed since me

Mänwe

11-30-2012, 09:10 PM

Ive looked a bit at Sally, Steve and Morsul and so indirectly a smidge at Pom and Inzil and i'm in two minds behind that quagmire especially with phantoms list.

Eönwë

11-30-2012, 09:13 PM

So at the moment I can see myself voting for Lottie, Nerwen or Zil unless something drastic happens.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-30-2012, 09:13 PM

I would be okay with voting for Pom or Morsul, possibly Eonwe.

Loslote

11-30-2012, 09:17 PM

Brinniel

11-30-2012, 09:19 PM

Ten minutes left and Morsul and Inzil still look the most suspicious to me. So I'll be voting for one of them.

the phantom

11-30-2012, 09:21 PM

VOTES
Pom ++ Sally
Morosul ++ Pom
Inzil ++ Steve

the phantom

11-30-2012, 09:21 PM

I'm considering Inzil or Sally at the moment...

Loslote

11-30-2012, 09:22 PM

Thus far,

Pom -> Sally
Morsul -> Pom
Zil -> Steve

...is that seriously everyone who's voted? This is going to be a madhouse. :eek:

EDIT: xed with a double tp

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 09:22 PM

Ten minutes left and Morsul and Inzil still look the most suspicious to me. So I'll be voting for one of them.

Of the two, I'd clearly prefer Morsul, but I won't stop you from voting Dun either. I do think we'd learn more from Morsul though (so even if we're wrong, which, you know, let's not be, we'd at least see possible connections with Pom and/or Steve).

EDIT: x'd since the post I quoted

Loslote

11-30-2012, 09:23 PM

Of the two, I'd clearly prefer Morsul, but I won't stop you from voting Dun either. I do think we'd learn more from Morsul though (so even if we're wrong, which, you know, let's not be, we'd at least see possible connections with Pom and/or Steve).

Well, we'd learn if you and he were connected - which, with this post, seems increasingly likely.

Galadriel55

11-30-2012, 09:23 PM

WTH? Less than 10 minutes to go and only 3 votes?!?!:eek:

the phantom

11-30-2012, 09:25 PM

I think it'd be fun if we all vote in the final 90 seconds and see what happens. *snicker*

But yeah- obviously the KMs don't want to vote yet because first they have to see if one of their fellows gets put under threat.

It's a game of chicken, with everyone holding their votes seeing who will blink first.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-30-2012, 09:25 PM

++Pom

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 09:25 PM

Well, we'd learn if you and he were connected - which, with this post, seems increasingly likely.

Fine by me. I've no evil to hide.

Brinniel

11-30-2012, 09:26 PM

After thinking things over and seeing the most recent posts, I'm now more inclined to go with Steve over Pom. As noted, his was one of the Eomer votes, and it still seems likely at least one of those was evil. I know it isn't me, and seemingly not Brinn. That leaves Sally and Steve, and of the two Steve looks worse, based upon toDay's activity.
What tipped the balance was Nerwen's # 272. If Steve turns out evil, then Pom is pretty well implicated.
I don't think both Pom and Eonwe would be evil. If Pom were lynched and revealed as a baddie, Eonwe's statement about the witch-hunt would be proved wrong, which could put him in a bad light. Would a baddie risk that?

Also, why do you say I'm seemingly innocent? Do you think there's the possibility that this information is wrong?

Loslote

11-30-2012, 09:26 PM

You know what? It's a very last-minute suspicion, but it's one I can actually put any weight behind. Sally or Zil? If one is a wolf, I bet the other is, too.

EDIT: lot of xing.

Galadriel55

11-30-2012, 09:26 PM

I think it'd be fun if we all vote in the final 90 seconds and see what happens. *snicker*

*slap*

I don't get it, but I'm more freaked out about it than you.:confused:

Mänwe

11-30-2012, 09:26 PM

I'm going to stick with what i've seen

++Morsul

Brinniel

11-30-2012, 09:27 PM

++Inzil

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 09:27 PM

I don't think both Pom and Eonwe would be evil. If Pom were lynched and revealed as a baddie, Eonwe's statement about the witch-hunt would be proved wrong, which could put him in a bad light.

That's a good point.

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 09:28 PM

I would say I'd be okay with voting for Morsul, but that would be taking a chance on his guilt without telling us much if he's innocent. Steve or Pom would tell us more - Steve probably more than Pom. With that in mind, I'd say I'm most likely at this point to vote for Steve.
I basically concur with this, though I think I prefer Pom over Steve. I read what you said about it being foolhardy for a wolf to try and cast suspicion on Brinn, but that was before Brinn was a known innocent, yet while she was an almost-known one– and it's very bad for them to have too many people regarded as un-lynchable.

As for Morsul– we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is, but I don't think it's quite got to that point.

Anyway–

++Pom

EDIT:X'd with heaps of people. Including both votes since my last post.

the phantom

11-30-2012, 09:28 PM

++Sally

Bah, I'm tired. I don't think I'll even stick around to see the narration. I'm still not over my flu-bug yet...

Anarion- please give priority to Brin in your protection. If the KMs try to get cute and kill me or Brin instead of the obvious Shasta, then whatever. I'm pretty busy Sunday anyway, so I wouldn't participate heavily....

Good night, everyone.

(edit: x-posted with... everyone else)

Brinniel

11-30-2012, 09:29 PM

I feel more worried about Inzil than Morsul which is why I voted him. Plus, it sounds like I could be thrown off by Morsul's playing style, so I'll hold off another Day.

Loslote

11-30-2012, 09:29 PM

++Sally

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 09:29 PM

++Pom

the phantom

11-30-2012, 09:30 PM

Ha ha, that was great! :D

We know how to finish.

Galadriel55

11-30-2012, 09:30 PM

Deadline. Stop Posting.

satansaloser2005

11-30-2012, 09:30 PM

Phantom, you're fired for trying to kill me like that. Why must you use a poor maid so? *whimpers*

EDIT: x'd with the mod and a very mean young man :rolleyes:

Nerwen

11-30-2012, 09:30 PM

Sorry, tp, but I just don't currently suspect anyone on your list enough to vote them right now.

EDIT: X'd with many.

Eönwë

11-30-2012, 09:31 PM

++Inzil
edit: argh

Galadriel55

11-30-2012, 09:36 PM

Sorry Steve, that vote doesn't count. But it wouldn't have made a difference anyways in the tally. Just vote toMorrow. :)

Pom is lynched. I might not have a narration up soon, and so that the Night people can start their work, Pom is an ordo.

With that train of thought - Night people, start your work!

Galadriel55

12-01-2012, 10:00 AM

“When do you think we will get a King’s Man?” asked a young man. Some men grunted or shot icy looks at him.

“Do you know what will happen to us?” the same boy asked again.

“Stop asking such questions. It does not help us any,” the old man said patiently.

“But I want to know! I think that they will help me find a person I suspect of being a King’s Man!”

“Do not argue,” quipped a man with thick, curly hair. “Listen to sagely advice when it is given to you.”

“But what if I disagree?” the boy continued on.

“Then don’t disagree!”

“What sort of thing is that to say when our survival depends on rooting out the three malicious people within us?”

The boy’s voice was louder than he intended. Some people turned their heads to look at him. One seemed to have come upon some dazzling idea.

“Hey, were you not the one who threw the first stone?” he asked.

Was he really? I’m sure he didn’t do it because he was evil!

*sigh*. I thought this wouldn’t last long.

What wouldn’t last long?

You not asking questions.

What questions?

Just – just don’t talk.

“He was, by Eru!” another man replied.

“I didn’t know that man was innocent!” the young man protested. “You all threw stones too!”

“And asking all those questions, just doesn’t seem right!” yet another man said.

“I just want to do the best thing! All I want is to get rid of the King’s Men!”

“Watch him argue!”

Despite the boy’s protests, they dragged him to the town square, where the night’s victim was found dead this morning.

“You have done it, have you not?” roared the crowd.

“I’m a good boy, I am!” the boy pleaded. It was no use. The crowd was deaf to the truth. Someone brought out a sword. His head was forced forward. Then the sword came down.

Nothing happened.

I knew he was no King’s Man!

Aye, so you told me. But they didn’t.

ALIVE:

Morsul
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Shasta
Manwe
The Phantom
sally
Steve
Brin

DEAD:
G55, the hesitant King’s Man (modess) – stabbed on Night1
Eomer (ordo) – stoned on Day1
Boro (gifted) – drowned on Night2
Pom (ordo) – decapitated on Day2

Galadriel55

12-01-2012, 09:31 PM

As the villagers closed their eyes, praying that the next day will prove to be more successful, the King’s Men met near the edge of the settlement. For some time they only whispered. One nodded. They walked slowly through the streets, making no noise as they went. Then they came to the house of their choice. It looked empty from the outside, but they knew that there was a man inside. A good man. A trusted man. A dangerous man.

The door creaked slightly when they entered in. They tiptoed into the bedroom. Just like they thought, the man was inside. He sat gazing out a window. Somehow, the King’s Men knew that he held more power than it seemed.

“Good morning, sirs! Has the beautiful Anar disappeared from the sky, or did the time shift so that the morrow is now at midnight?” the man gave a nervous chuckle.

“We are not amused by your petty jests,” one of the King’s Men replied coldly. “We do not come here to exchange greetings.”

“Wherefore do you come, then?” the man knew the answer and dreaded it, and he braced himself for a rough fight.

“We are come for your life.” There it was. Suddenly, it did not seem as fearful to the poor man as he thought it would. After all, what is his life, the life of but one simple man, no matter how good, in the webs of history of Ea? His life would not merit one stitch in Varie’s tapestries, or so he thought. And he would continue on, beyond the circles of the world, even if his life is taken.

“Nay, ‘tis not my life that you need,” he said, and his quiet voice rang in the room. “’Tis my death that you came for.”

“Life or death, we will have it!” one of the King’s Men said triumphantly. Before the victim could do so much as make a sound, they were on him. One hastily produced a piece of rope, which he wrapped around the man’s head and pulled until the life went out of him. A pale mist rose above him and floated out the window that faced the West.

ALIVE:
Morsul
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Manwe
The Phantom
sally
Steve
Brin

DEAD:
G55, the hesitant King’s Man (modess) – stabbed on Night1
Eomer (ordo) – stoned on Day1
Boro (gifted) – drowned on Night2
Pom (ordo) – decapitated on Day2
Shasta (gifted) – throttled on Night3

the phantom

12-01-2012, 09:37 PM

So, are we going to debate what role Shasta had? :D

Morsul the Dark

12-01-2012, 09:40 PM

So Pom was Ordo which means to me anyway Sally is evil Nerwen is evil and probably ZIl. Nerwen and Sally keep suspecting me but never vote me. I mentioned I'm an easy lynch and useful at a critical moment for the KM well we could have worst case scenario two bad lynches till game's end so frankly now's my final stand as an innocent I have to go with what I think what I'm sure of. I will have really no time for this day so in case I can't get back by DL:

++Sally

Yeah I'm that sure.

the phantom

12-01-2012, 09:42 PM

Anyway, yesterday's lynch was.... irritating. I did a special readthrough especially for Pom, and following that I made this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676981&postcount=275) post announcing that I was transferring Pom into the "free pass" category.

No village has ever regretted listening to an innocent Phantom. You know that, right? *grumble*

the phantom

12-01-2012, 09:44 PM

Okay, so now that Shasta's dead, is there a one of you that has received special information about Amandil's line?

(I'm not asking for you to out the person, I'm just wanting you to raise your hand if you've been sent special info, and then if someone contests that claim I suppose we'll put the both of you to the test.)

the phantom

12-01-2012, 09:51 PM

In light of lynches the past couple days, there are some general, if flawed, conclusions we can leap to thanks to which people are under pressure at certain times etc.

If Steve is a KM then it's unlikely that Sally, Inzil, or Lottie is.
If Manwe is then it's unlikely that Sally, Steve, or Morsul is.
If Morsul is then it's unlikely that Sally or Lottie is.

According to those rules I sketched out teams of possible packmates to see which occurred most often and which individuals were compatible with the most others etc. etc. and Nerwen appears a heck of a lot, followed by Inzil, then a pile-up between everyone else.

So, as a proven innocent that will be killed by the KMs fairly soon, can I make a request of you folks? I'd like to see everyone give some sort of analysis on Nerwen and Inzil, and then pick a third individual that you for certain think is guilty.

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 09:54 PM

So, are we going to debate what role Shasta had?
Hmm...well, that's a tough one. I'll have to think about it. ;)

phantom, should I assume that you didn't receive a dream last Night? Then we can pretty much confirm that Boro was indeed Elendil...not that it's any surprise.

So Pom was Ordo which means to me anyway Sally is evil Nerwen is evil and probably ZIl.
Wow, you really think all three baddies would hop on the Pom bandwagon? I doubt it.

I do feel fairly confident that at least one baddie took part in getting Pom lynched, for reasons I stated yesterDay. And when I say this, I don't mean just those who voted her, but anyone who contributed to the bandwagon. Because a baddie can manipulate a lynch without actually voting the target lynchee.

Inziladun

12-01-2012, 09:58 PM

the phantom

12-01-2012, 09:58 PM

phantom, should I assume that you didn't receive a dream last Night? Then we can pretty much confirm that Boro was indeed Elendil...not that it's any surprise.
Heh heh- if I had received a dream I probably would PMed back, "Um, are you sure?" :D
Wow, you really think all three baddies would hop on the Pom bandwagon? I doubt it.
Well, Inzil voted early for Steve I believe, so that would only be two on the wagon, which would be an understandable number if in fact the threatened Sally was a KM.

Btw, you're not obligated to answer my questions, Brin, since you're a proven innocent. ;)

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 09:59 PM

Okay, so now that Shasta's dead, is there a one of you that has received special information about Amandil's line?

Putting this out there now: I didn't get any new information last Night. Sorry I can't help out more.

No village has ever regretted listening to an innocent Phantom. You know that, right? *grumble*

And no village has ever lynched an innocent Sally and come up victorious. You know that, right? *grumbles right back*

I am sorry about Pom though. I waited too long to vote; if I'd put Morsul up earlier in the Day, I think we would have had a chance at him, but either was a good candidate in my eyes at the time, so I didn't press the issue.

EDIT: x'd since 321

Morsul the Dark

12-01-2012, 10:00 PM

Hmm...well, that's a tough one. I'll have to think about it. ;)

phantom, should I assume that you didn't receive a dream last Night? Then we can pretty much confirm that Boro was indeed Elendil...not that it's any surprise.

Wow, you really think all three baddies would hop on the Pom bandwagon? I doubt it.

I do feel fairly confident that at least one baddie took part in getting Pom lynched, for reasons I stated yesterDay. And when I say this, I don't mean just those who voted her, but anyone who contributed to the bandwagon. Because a baddie can manipulate a lynch without actually voting the target lynchee.

It's at the point that even if one innocent makes a mistake(me) then as long as they vote together it's not that hard to outvote everyone else.

the phantom

12-01-2012, 10:01 PM

Well, Inzil, that would be quite helpful indeed if you are indeed innocent, as that would rule out several potential packs.

Don't out the person yet, though, as they may be unprepared at this time. Give it a while and see if anyone tries to refute your claim.

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 10:03 PM

YesterDay's Voting:

Italics = known innocent
Underlined = deceased

Pom ++ Sally
Morsul ++ Pom
Inzil ++ Steve
Shasta ++ Pom
Manwe ++ Morsul
Brinn ++ Inzil
Nerwen ++ Pom
phantom ++ Sally
Loslote ++ Sally
Sally ++ Pom
Eonwe ++ Inzil *

*didn't count

X-ed with phantom

Inziladun

12-01-2012, 10:04 PM

the phantom

12-01-2012, 10:04 PM

Isildur- make sure you're ready to reveal at some point later today if it's necessary. I'm hoping you have some markers to point back to in case we need proof. I already requested that the Ordo information-recipient not out you, so you should have a bit of time to prepare, anyway.

Mänwe

12-01-2012, 10:07 PM

I'd like to see everyone give some sort of analysis on Nerwen and Inzil, and then pick a third individual that you for certain think is guilty.

Looking back at the votes and late suspicions on the last vote, the known innocents were rather split on their thoughts, you voted Lottie first day phantom.

And wow, an early vote from Morsul. That's irritating if he won't be around much for the rest of toDay.

edit: x' d with all of the above

the phantom

12-01-2012, 10:11 PM

Okay, just to keep track of this little tidbit, if you post but don't say you have the info I'm assuming you are saying you don't have it-

Claims to be the Known Ordo with special Amandil information:
Inzil

Did not receive special Amandil information:
Phantom
Brin
Sally
Manwe
Morsul

Has not posted:
Steve
Nerwen
Lottie

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 10:12 PM

Day One

Eomer-->Sally
Pom-->Dun
Shasta-->Steve
Dun-->Eomer
Lottie-->Steve (2)
Morsul-->Sally (2)
Boro-->Lottie
Brinn-->Eomer (2)
Sally-->Eomer (3)
Phantom-->Lottie (2)
Steve-->Eomer (4)

Didn't vote: Manwe, Nerwen

Day Two

Pom-->Sally
Morsul-->Pom
Dun-->Steve
Shasta-->Pom (2)
Manwe-->Morsul
Brinn-->Dun
Nerwen-->Pom (3)
Phantom-->Sally (2)
Lottie-->Sally (3)
Sally-->Pom (4)
Steve-->Dun (2)*

*Vote was past DL.

Morsul: Sally, Pom
Nerwen: no vote, Pom
Dun: Eomer, Steve
Lottie: Steve, Sally
Shasta: Steve, Pom
Manwe: no vote, Morsul
Pom: Dun, Sally
Phantom: Lottie, Sally
Sally: Eomer, Pom
Eomer: Sally, N/A
Boro: Lottie, N/A
Steve: Eomer, Dun (voted after DL)
Brinn: Eomer, Dun

Known innocents (minus Dun and myself, for obvious reasons) are italicized. I'd have underlined known villains, but we don't have any. >.<

x'd since my last

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 10:13 PM

Well, Inzil voted early for Steve I believe, so that would only be two on the wagon, which would be an understandable number if in fact the threatened Sally was a KM.
Inzil was seriously considering voting Pom though, which is why I count him as part of the bandwagon.

Darn it, Inzil. I was all ready to suspect you toDay and then you just had to go and do that. :p

I wonder if a baddie would risk falsely claiming the info. But unless we do have a counter-claim, I'm leaving Inzil alone.

Edit: X-ed with Sally

the phantom

12-01-2012, 10:16 PM

I wonder if a baddie would risk falsely claiming the info.
Dunno... I was going to run a trial of it in my head yesterday but just never got to it, so I haven't really thought about it at all.

If anyone else has considered it, by all means give your thoughts.
But unless we do have a counter-claim, I'm leaving Inzil alone.
Quite right.

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 10:20 PM

But unless we do have a counter-claim, I'm leaving Inzil alone.Quite right.

Third.

the phantom

12-01-2012, 10:20 PM

We know these are innocent-
Phantom
Brin

Pending approval as known innocent-
Inzil

The rest-
Sally
Manwe
Morsul
Steve
Lottie
Nerwen

Now, one of "the rest" is a Gifted that can hopefully have a successful reveal when called upon, so really that category is only 5 people, 3 of which are KMs. We can still win, but we need to vote together as much as possible and not spread things out to let the KMs stack the piles. Also, if at all possible don't vote extremely early, but also not in the final 5 minutes today.

the phantom

12-01-2012, 10:24 PM

Mänwe

12-01-2012, 10:27 PM

But unless we do have a counter-claim, I'm leaving Inzil alone.

Edit: X-ed with Sally

Yup.

Heh, early vote Morsul. Who has been targeted by and who has targeted Sally in the past few days. Gah.

edit: x'd with the above until last post.

well i've lumped the morsul, sally, pom and steve in the wishy washy. You voted Lottie first night, and i've not looked at her properly yet (or Nerwen) and will do later toDay so will be back later.

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 10:28 PM

So, Sally and Manwe (and anyone else around)- since Inzil has been tossed out for the time being, my request from this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=677046&postcount=322) post is easier to manage now. Why don't you go ahead and give your thoughts, please. Mount as strong defenses or offenses as you can manage...

Dude, I would, but you know how crappy I am at reading Nerwen. I'll go have another look at her, but no promises that my thoughts will win me a sparkly umbrella.

Loslote

12-01-2012, 10:52 PM

Okay, so now that Shasta's dead, is there a one of you that has received special information about Amandil's line?

Not...exactly.

I'd have underlined known villains, but we don't have any. >.<

Erm...I do.

I got a dream last night.

I know, right?

But yeah.

I have a wolf.

:smokin:

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 10:53 PM

Explain.

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 10:54 PM

Players who showed suspicions of Pom:

Morsul: Consistently suspects Pom all Day and votes her. Either a misguided innocent or a baddie jumping on player who's a potential easy lynch.

Sally: Suspects her early on. I mentioned before that an innocent is more inclined to feel suspicious of someone who voted her, but that doesn't discount the possibility of a baddie taking advantage of the situation. Her vote for Pom doesn't mean much to me since her neck was on the chopping block at that point.

Inzil: Leaving alone for now.

Shasta: Dead and innocent.

Nerwen: Replies to Pom's disagreement and implication about her not wanting to spread out the votes. Nerwen's reply was understandable as I felt the same way. She doesn't openly suspect Pom though until the last moments of the Day, then votes her. That I do find suspicious.

---

I don't know what to do with Morsul. So many of his comments and theories seem rather out there. But others say that's how he typically is, which isn't helpful. It could make him an easy lynch for the baddies, though if he were a baddie, the pack could use that to their favor.

Nerwen's vote for Pom is most worrying to me as her suspicions suddenly come at the very last minute.

I really don't know about Sally. I no longer feel as good about her, so she's moving into my 'not sure' category.

Edit: X-ed with the last few. Wow...okay.

Loslote

12-01-2012, 10:55 PM

Explain.

I received a dream last Night. In the dream, it was revealed to me the identity of a wolf. (I won't say who until later on in the Day.)

Elendil is still alive.

EDIT: xed with Brinn

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 10:57 PM

Loslote, why would you (an unknown) receive a dream and not phantom or me (two known innocents). That just doesn't make sense.

Loslote

12-01-2012, 10:58 PM

Loslote, why would you (an unknown) receive a dream and not phantom or me (two known innocents). That just doesn't make sense.

Maybe Elendil didn't want to risk the dreamer being killed. I have no idea why me in particular.

Inziladun

12-01-2012, 11:00 PM

Loslote, why would you (an unknown) receive a dream and not phantom or me (two known innocents). That just doesn't make sense.

I could possibly see not giving the dream to phantom, on the off-chance he might have been killed, but why indeed not Brinn?

Loslote

12-01-2012, 11:02 PM

I could possibly see not giving the dream to phantom, on the off-chance he might have been killed, but why indeed not Brinn?

Honestly? I don't know. I have absolutely no clue.

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 11:04 PM

Yeah, but there were three known innocents to pick between. Shasta was most certain to be killed. Choosing one of the other two wouldn't be that risky, especially with the possibility that one of us is protected.

Inzil (assuming he's telling the truth) knows the identity of a gifted. If Elendil's alive, that would be him, right?

I need some time to unscramble my brain...

Inziladun

12-01-2012, 11:04 PM

After all, when you do have a choice of two innocents, sending a dream to an unknown seems pretty darned risky.

Loslote

12-01-2012, 11:06 PM

After all, when you do have a choice of two innocents, sending a dream to an unknown seems pretty darned risky.

I agree. It makes no sense - I can't count how often I've re-checked the pm to make sure I didn't read it wrong or imagined it or something.

Inziladun

12-01-2012, 11:09 PM

Yeah, but there were three known innocents to pick between. Shasta was most certain to be killed. Choosing one of the other two wouldn't be that risky, especially with the possibility that one of us is protected.

Exactly. Personally, I'd have chosen you as the least likely of the three to be targeted.,

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 11:10 PM

I agree. It makes no sense - I can't count how often I've re-checked the pm to make sure I didn't read it wrong or imagined it or something.

I'm going to pull the jerk move here and ask that you say what you know. Unlike Dun, there's no harm that can come from you sharing your information. We can mull over why you received the information all Day, but whether or not it's valid (and the implications of said validity) is what's important here.

EDIT: x'd with Dun

Loslote

12-01-2012, 11:13 PM

I'm going to pull the jerk move here and ask that you say what you know. Unlike Dun, there's no harm that can come from you sharing your information. We can mull over why you received the information all Day, but whether or not it's valid (and the implications of said validity) is what's important here.

And yet, watching wolves scramble when they know we know one of their own is so enlightening. I'd prefer to hold off for a while, until I can at least get a sense of how the individual players react.

If everyone insists on knowing, though, I'll share early - but I feel that we'd be losing out on valuable information if I give the name too quickly.

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 11:15 PM

In theory...

If both Lottie and Inzil are telling the truth, then one knows a baddie and one knows Elendil. If Elendil revealed (which would no longer be so risky), that would be five known innocents and one known baddie. Which would make the village almost certain to win.

I don't know, I'm feeling rather skeptical...

Brinniel

12-01-2012, 11:16 PM

Btw, Inzil should definitely hold off on his information until Lottie reveals her's.

Nerwen

12-01-2012, 11:18 PM

Nerwen: Replies to Pom's disagreement and implication about her not wanting to spread out the votes. Nerwen's reply was understandable as I felt the same way. She doesn't openly suspect Pom though until the last moments of the Day, then votes her. That I do find suspicious.

I had a very limited time to make up my mind in, Brinn– and nobody looked *really* suspicious to me, except for Morsul, who always does.

As for the latest development–

Exactly. Personally, I'd have chosen you as the least likely of the three to be targeted.,

I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?

EDIT:X'd since Zil.

Loslote

12-01-2012, 11:21 PM

So...I need to sleep, and soon. I'll be around in about nine hours. I'll wait until then to reveal the wolf - hopefully by then I'll be able to see some of the wolf and potential packmates' reactions and interactions. Good night, everyone.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

Inziladun

12-01-2012, 11:24 PM

Btw, Inzil should definitely hold off on his information until Lottie reveals her's.

Unquestionably.

I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a
story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?

Who knows?:rolleyes:

the phantom

12-01-2012, 11:34 PM

I'm here getting caught up. In my skim I saw enough to see that I need to ready VERY carefully. :eek:

the phantom

12-01-2012, 11:40 PM

I received a dream last Night. In the dream, it was revealed to me the identity of a wolf. (I won't say who until later on in the Day.)

Elendil is still alive.
Well, well, well... Looking at a particular individual the past couple days and their behavior (and a certain pattern I noticed in their posts which was repeated Day 1), it made me hold out just a teensy bit of hope, so I'm not going to reject your claim immediately...

This is tough...

Lottie- if you don't mind me asking, if one of Amandil's line were to battle rodents, what sort would it be?

(I realize that looks like a stupid question, but if you or someone else responds in a certain way to it, it will really help me get a bead on things.)
Loslote, why would you (an unknown) receive a dream and not phantom or me (two known innocents). That just doesn't make sense.
Maybe Elendil didn't want to risk the dreamer being killed. I have no idea why me in particular.
I agree that Brin or I should've received the dream if there was one to be had, except for the kill angle... But how could Elendil possibly be that confident in Lottie?

Hmmm....

(still reading)

the phantom

12-01-2012, 11:43 PM

I'm going to pull the jerk move here and ask that you say what you know. Unlike Dun, there's no harm that can come from you sharing your information. We can mull over why you received the information all Day, but whether or not it's valid (and the implications of said validity) is what's important here.
And yet, watching wolves scramble when they know we know one of their own is so enlightening. I'd prefer to hold off for a while, until I can at least get a sense of how the individual players react.
Well....

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

(still reading)

the phantom

12-01-2012, 11:49 PM

I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?
Hmmm... Yeah, it's tough to consider the angles here, as there's really no precedent.

Okay- pretend for a moment that Lottie is telling the truth. That means Elendil is still alive and knows precisely who a dream target was. We're getting down to the wire here so it's also possible both Elendil and the other Gifted might reveal, which would narrow the potential lynch field by a LOT, particularly with the Amandil info-holder removing himself from consideration.

So- I think what that means is that Lottie may be forced to tell the truth about her dream even if she's a KM, if you follow me. For if she lies, then it would rule out both her AND her dream as a KM, thus reducing the potential KMs in the village to 2 when in fact there are 3 still alive.

Thus KM-Lottie's only hope of survival would be to sell out her packmate and hope that when the final day arrives she is given the benefit of the doubt versus whoever the other candidate is.

Does that make sense?

In other words, I'm saying even if we choose to believe Lottie we aren't necessarily agreeing that she's innocent. I just feel that it's important to keep this in perspective.

satansaloser2005

12-01-2012, 11:51 PM

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

Fair enough. Given ou rsize, I can certainly see the wisdom. I was mostly concerned about the effect it could have on Dun's reveal, but as long as Lottie reveals first (Dun can then reveal anytime he feels like thereafter), I'm not in a terrible rush.

EDIT: x'd with a Phantom

the phantom

12-01-2012, 11:57 PM

And now that Nerwen and Lottie have shown their faces, Steve is the only other person who potentially could contest Inzil's claim to possess Amandil information.

Steve- post as soon as you can letting us know if you did or did not receive information from Amandil.

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 12:15 AM

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

Finally home, and the bed is calling, but I'm very interested to see what happens in the mean time.

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)

Yes indeed, if rather maddening! ;)

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:38 AM

Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.

Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.)

Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died.

And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie.

There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate.

Let's walk through this...
There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed.

But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day).

But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her.

What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 12:39 AM

Extremely brief thoughts on the whole gifted situation.

It's clear we have two gifteds who have been eliminated: Boro and Shasta.

If Dun is lying, Amandil is still alive (unless someone else got information when Boro died and hasn't said anything, which doesn't seem terribly likely). I'm assuming that if Dun is lying, he's evil. I can think of a possible reason he might lie as a goodie, but I'm going to withhold that theory for the moment and see how the Day goes.

If Lottie is lying, our seer is dead, and she's a wolf. Plain and simple. We can't be sure whether her "dream" is an innocent or a packmate, but her role will be certain.

If Lottie and Dun are both telling the truth, then Shasta was clearly Amandil and Boro was either the ranger or Isildur. For obvious reasons, of the two options, I'd prefer it to be Isildur....

Hopefully I'll finish re-reading the thread before bed. Either way, I'll put up a list before I crash. Relatively certain Morsul is evil, but I don't know about the rest of you at all. Especially Lottie and Dun, at least right now. >.<

EDIT: x'd with a Phantom

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:43 AM

Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

(edit: remove extra word)

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 12:54 AM

The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

*cough* Morsul. *cough*

:rolleyes:

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 12:55 AM

Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:58 AM

*cough* Morsul. *cough*
Yeah, I didn't like that much, but apparently he won't be back at all today? It sucks not to have everyone around and reacting...
Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?
Ha ha, yeah. I was right in the middle of removing an extra "the" from my last post when suddenly I couldn't do anything, and in other windows when I tried to open the Downs I got a funny message. Lasted about 11 minutes or so I think?

What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 12:59 AM

What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...

Bite me.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:10 AM

Will not lynch at present (or rather, at all):
Phantom
Brinn
Sally

Will not lynch toDay:
Dun
Lottie

Can be persuaded to vote:
Nerwen
Manwe
Steve

Would like to vote:
Morsul

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:18 AM

Heh- this has been an interesting end to the day, anyway. :D

Only a few times can I recall bombarding my brain with potential scenarios like this. But seriously, I need to shut it down for the night. Still not back to full health, so I need some shut-eye.

Remember not to do anything hasty. Inzil still has a card to play and we haven't talked to Steve at all, and Lottie has yet to reveal her card... Unfortunately now I feel like probably everyone is waiting for those things to happen so that they don't give away their leanings prematurely.

Thus I think I'm within my rights to request that everyone make a lynch list of the three people they want lynched the most. And if the remaining Gifteds are out there, could you please take a close look and let me know if I've done this correctly? ;)

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:37 AM

I'm finally off to bed, and I'm uncertain when I'll return. It may be in a few hours, it may not be until after lunchtime here (eight hours or so before DL). In any case, please do not vote until I return unless you absolutely must. I've made an observation, one which I'll share once both Dun and Lottie have revealed their information. It will be worth your patience.

Nerwen

12-02-2012, 03:05 AM

Just dropping in to say that I *will* have to vote fairly early, or else not at all.

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 05:18 AM

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Ok, I'm going to need to reread this all again more slowly, but here are my thoughts.

Firstly, no, I'm not claiming to have gotten an Amandil dream. This really leaves three options:
Shasta was Amandil and Zil is telling the truth. I can't see a KM making a claim when it's possible that someone else will also make such a claim, because either the KM will be lynched toDay or toMorrow, and given the numbers, I don't think that would be worth it for them.
Zil is a KM and is fairly certain that Shasta wasn't Amandil. Unlikely because he claimed it so early and didn't even wait to see whether others had claims and Shasta really was Amandil.
Irrespective of his thoughts on Shasta, Zil is worried that he'd get lynched toDay and wanted to pre-emptively put himself in a good position because he agrees with what I've said above.
So, basically, I'm quite happy trusting Zil unless something else makes me reconsider. And by happy I mean kind of worried, because I was quite certain that Zil was evil.

For Lottie, my thoughts are similar. It's either KM-on-KM or genuine, I'd think. So we might as well go along with it for now.

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 05:31 AM

I agree. It makes no sense - I can't count how often I've re-checked the pm to make sure I didn't read it wrong or imagined it or something.
No, it makes perfect sense. The most obvious choice for a kill would be phantom, so Elendil couldn't pick him. But then, the KMs know that and probably thought that Anarion was still alive. So then they might pick Shasta. But his gift means knowledge, so it would be a bad idea to kill him. So that leaves Brinn as the one to be killed. So, Elendil couldn't risk any of the three and just chose someone he found innocent. Or you could be a KM handing in one of your fellows.

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 05:35 AM

Will be back later, with more thoughts.

Nerwen

12-02-2012, 07:06 AM

Nerwen

12-02-2012, 08:19 AM

Anyone around?

Loslote

12-02-2012, 08:22 AM

???And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?

Even if no one doubted it, Steve here is just laying out the only options for further mistrust of Zil now that we know no one else is going to contest his claim. Unless we think no one at all could have received the dream (because Shasta wasn't Amandil), we have to assume that Zil was the one to receive the dream and that he is, in fact, an ordo.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen. Hi there!

Brinniel

12-02-2012, 08:34 AM

Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil?
Sally also mentioned a scenario with the possibility of Amandil still being alive in one of her more recent posts. I don't really understand either why that's even being considered. We know Shasta was gifted. Why would he false claim as Amandil and why would the real Amandil not counter claim?

Okay, if Elendil was assuming that Anarion was Boro, I can see why he might not pick phantom or me. But why Lottie? She did seem on the more innocent side to me, but there's no way to be sure. And really, what is the bigger risk: sending a dream to a known innocent with the possibility they could die and no information is revealed? Or sending the dream to an unknown who could use that information to manipulate the village should they turn out evil?

I have to be at work for most of toDay, but I will be back for the last one to two hours before deadline.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 08:41 AM

All right- that settles it. Inzil is unchallenged. Good. I'm here only for about 45 minutes then I'm leaving, but I'll be back after a couple hours. No worries.

And Lottie is back. I do hope she's reading everything carefully, as I still could use some help figuring things out....

Loslote

12-02-2012, 08:51 AM

And Lottie is back. I do hope she's reading everything carefully, as I still could use some help figuring things out....

We've gotten something from everyone. Shall I reveal our wolfie now?

Also, as to your question from earlier - I can't make heads nor tails of it. Sorry.

EDIT: Wolfie, KM, same thing.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 08:53 AM

How about post #376 then, Lottie. Does anything leap out at you about it after looking at it again for a bit?

Loslote

12-02-2012, 08:58 AM

How about post #376 then, Lottie. Does anything leap out at you about it after looking at it again for a bit?

I'm sorry. Nothing.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:04 AM

Well crap. That ruins my theory on why Elendil potentially trusted you...

So now, let me just ask- were you trying to accomplish anything in particular at all when you made your very first post at the beginning of the game?

Loslote

12-02-2012, 09:07 AM

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:11 AM

Well, it was a stretch I suppose. Bleh... That means I still can't be certain which Gifteds are actually alive.

When I show you after the game what I thought you were doing in that first post, you're going to laugh, because there's actually 3 potential clues there. Just shows you can find anything if you're looking for it.

Nerwen

12-02-2012, 09:13 AM

Ah, now I get it. Squirrels, right, tp?

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:15 AM

Yeah, squirrels. Not to mention "sneaking in the back way", as in Isildur's famous rescue of the seed of Nimloth.

And speaking of botany, her first four paragraphs spell out H-O-R-T which is an abbreviation used in horticulture.....

I thought this Elendil dream was finally making sense. :rolleyes:

Loslote

12-02-2012, 09:16 AM

Ah, now I get it. Squirrels, right, tp?

Oh! Right. :o No, my campus actually does have a lot of remarkably bold squirrels, and I ran into a bunch right before I wrote that post. :rolleyes:

So! Wolf time? I have to leave soon - shopping day - so should I reveal the name now or when I get back (in a few hours)?

EDIT: xed with tp. Um...nope, didn't mean any of that! I did notice the HORT in your post, though, but decided it didn't mean anything because, really, HORT? What could that mean? *facepalm*

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:19 AM

Well honestly I don't think anyone is going to do squat until they hear who you're accusing. Plus we need to give your "KM" a chance at defense in case you're a KM and they can successfully prove they are in fact Gifted etc.

Loslote

12-02-2012, 09:19 AM

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:19 AM

No, hold on...

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:20 AM

Crap. My fault. I should've demanded that Isildur/Anarion reveal first so that your target couldn't claim it after the fact. Ugh...

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:22 AM

Well, that particular choice is... nice... and convenient...

Nerwen- you have the floor now obviously.

The rest of you- no knee-jerk reactions, please. Let's hear everyone out and let everyone give their take.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 09:23 AM

Crap. My fault. I should've demanded that Isildur/Anarion reveal first so that your target couldn't claim it after the fact. Ugh...

Well, if Nerwen is lynched and turns up innocent, Lottie is definitely evil, whereas if Nerwen is indeed a KM, Lottie's only potentially bad.
Wow, what a game.

x/d with tp

Nerwen

12-02-2012, 09:26 AM

Ah well, that settles the Lottie question as far as I'm concerned–

++Lottie

I suppose I should never have said I might not be around to vote.

Please do not lynch me. It would be very bad. Good night.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 09:28 AM

Surprise, surprise. :rolleyes:

I wonder if voting history might help here....

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:34 AM

I have to go. I'll be back home in a couple hours or so.

Someone do me a favor and look over Boro's posts to see if there are any clues at all that hint at a Gifted role other than Elendil. I've found one potential clue- in his first four sentences, the first letter sentence 1 is "A", third letter sentence 2 is "N", fifth letter sentence 3 is "A", seventh letter sentence 4 is "R". And "Anar" of course means "sun" and is the root of the name Anarion.

Is there anything else?

Anyway, gotta go. Please try not to vote until I'm back so that I can catch up easily.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 09:38 AM

One last thing- Nerwen, if you're specifically Anarion, I think a full reveal is the only way to go. If not, then it's in the village's hands later today...

See everyone in a bit.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 10:33 AM

Someone do me a favor and look over Boro's posts to see if there are any clues at all that hint at a Gifted role other than Elendil. I've found one potential clue- in his first four sentences, the first letter sentence 1 is "A", third letter sentence 2 is "N", fifth letter sentence 3 is "A", seventh letter sentence 4 is "R". And "Anar" of course means "sun" and is the root of the name Anarion.

With a quick skim, I didn't see anything in particular.

I have to leave in a minute myself, and I have stuff to do today.
That said, I'll be around a good deal. Let me know, phantom and Brinn, when you think is the best time for Amandil's heir to be outed. Others' opinions are welcome, but they won't necessarily be followed. :p

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 10:39 AM

I'm awake. Dun, now's as good a time as any (for sleepy little me anyway).

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 10:59 AM

Grrrr. I have to leave again, and I'll not be back but for scraps for a couple of hours. Keep on the up, up, up, up, and even more up while I'm gone, will you all?

Mänwe

12-02-2012, 11:20 AM

Well there's me taking a look at Lottie and then this happens- will have to read back through everything with all this in mind now.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:20 PM

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 12:22 PM

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 12:24 PM

Meh, I'll hold off. I want to see what others say.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:24 PM

That said, I'll be around a good deal. Let me know, phantom and Brinn, when you think is the best time for Amandil's heir to be outed.
Honestly, I don't even think you have to, seeing as no one challenged your claim. If the person comes under fire then of course you can step in, but for now may as well sit on it, right?

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 12:28 PM

Honestly, I don't even think you have to, seeing as no one challenged your claim. If the person comes under fire then of course you can step in, but for now may as well sit on it, right?

That works. I was hoping it would be challenged though. You bad guys are no fun. ;)

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:30 PM

That works. I was hoping it would be challenged though. You bad guys are no fun.
Ha ha, yeah, I know. This day isn't weird and crazy enough- let's get a role challenge going! :D

Sally- didn't you say last night that you had a very important observation to share?

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:35 PM

If Elendil is in fact still alive, I'm debating the merits of asking Isildur or Anarion to reveal.

Hmm, actually even if Elendil isn't alive, I'm debating the possibility of at least one of the Gifteds revealing. Just imagine Steve, Morsul, Sally, or Manwe being Gifted and able to back that claim up with some quality evidence. That would shrink the lynch pool immensely not just for today but for tomorrow- not to mention it would give the KMs yet another Night-kill target to worry about.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 12:39 PM

Hmm, actually even if Elendil isn't alive, I'm debating the possibility of at least one of the Gifteds revealing. Just imagine Steve, Morsul, Sally, or Manwe being Gifted and able to back that claim up with some quality evidence. That would shrink the lynch pool immensely not just for today but for tomorrow- not to mention it would give the KMs yet another Night-kill target to worry about.

Seems sound enough.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 12:44 PM

Sally- didn't you say last night that you had a very important observation to share?

Indeed, but I'll have to wait on Dun. The good news is I'll be around for the rest of the day. Hopefully the lynch won't get too crazy, but if it does, I'll see what I can do to help.

Off to fill my grumbling stomach.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:50 PM

Indeed, but I'll have to wait on Dun.
What do you mean, it has to wait on him?

He's proven innocent. No one challenged. Therefore he has no need to give out his info. Are you trying to force him?

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 12:57 PM

Indeed, but I'll have to wait on Dun. The good news is I'll be around for the rest of the day.

Interesting. I'd still like input from our innocents first though.

Edit- What phantom said.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 12:58 PM

It's not an issue of me trusting him at all. In fact, quite the opposite.

Are you even around at present, Dun?

EDIT: x'd with Dun. How convenient.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 12:58 PM

Inzil and Brin (and if anyone else wants to give thoughts on this you're welcome), what are the pros and cons of Gifteds revealing? Here's a bit of my thinking-

Scenario: Isildur and Anarion both reveal
Pros: We would know Lottie is lying, or that one of the reveals is lying (if Elendil then steps forward). The lynch list would be smaller. If Elendil is still alive Anarion could tell him who he is able to protect.
Cons: The KMs would have more kill choices thus it would be more difficult to predict for Anarion if he's alive.

What else can you guys add to this?

Mänwe

12-02-2012, 12:58 PM

Then how about this. Make a list of three if she's innocent, and a list for if she's guilty.

Ok then, if she's innocent;

Nerwen
Steve
Morsul

If she's not innocent

Lottie
Morsul
Steve

But i'm still not set on Sally wholly so her and Morsul could be interchangeable.

edit: x'd with the above

Sounds good to me phantom, simple and the reveals have worked relatively well so far.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:12 PM

I notice that most people seem unwilling to name what they believe is the KM-pack. Is that because you don't know whether to trust Lottie?

Then how about this. Make a list of three if she's innocent, and a list for if she's guilty.

Sally, Manwe, Morsul, Steve- it's you we need to hear from. Lay out your top three suspects please.

Not a problem. Actually, I did quite a bit of number-crunching in the wee hours about exactly this.

If Lottie's evil:
Lottie
Morsul
Nerwen (if Lottie is playing boldly)

If Lottie's innocent:
Nerwen
Morsul
Steve

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 01:24 PM

It's not an issue of me trusting him at all. In fact, quite the opposite.

Are you even around at present, Dun?

I am here for the moment. I think whether I tell what I know is tied to this from tp:

Inzil and Brin (and if anyone else wants to give thoughts on this you're welcome), what are the pros and cons of Gifteds revealing? Here's a bit of my thinking-

Scenario: Isildur and Anarion both reveal
Pros: We would know Lottie is lying, or that one of the reveals is lying (if Elendil then steps forward). The lynch list would be smaller. If Elendil is still alive Anarion could tell him who he is able to protect.
Cons: The KMs would have more kill choices thus it would be more difficult to predict for Anarion if he's alive.

I see the positives, but also the opportunity for a lot of chaos. If Anarion is known, probably he would be the next kill, as I don't think he can self-protect.
Then again, narrowing the field at this stage works in the innocents' favor, I think.
And in the event of double-reveals, hopefully my knowledge could be useful.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:24 PM

Okay, so Manwe and Inzil have both assented to the idea of Isildur and/or Anarion revealing. What does everyone else think? What are drawbacks?

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:24 PM

Are you trying to force him?

Um....maybe?

I think getting a list from him would give me what I need though. Maybe. Ish. See, I have this theory, but I can't prove it yet. I guess I could just share what I know, but I'd rather have Dun show his cards (or at least let me peek) first to be safe. Luckily I'm not in a terrible rush, so I suppose I can wait until he's ready.

Done making wonderful food. Until I get back (found a mess in the kitchen when I got home, so I'll be working on that for a bit), keep up with Phantom's plans. Rather hoping Dun will trust me enough to at least make a list.

EDIT: x'd with Dun again (and also Phantom). Gee, this is getting to be a habit.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 01:26 PM

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:27 PM

Actually, would our two Gifteds necessarily have to say who they specifically were? Or would it be enough to know they were Gifted? Just thinking aloud, trying to keep as much useful data as possible from those who shouldn't get it.

x/d with tp and Sally

Not necessarily, especially the ranger. In fact, I think the ranger should stay silent unless they are threatened toDay.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 01:34 PM

The problem with my doing a list like you want, Sally, is that by elimination it would narrow down the possibilities of who I know is innocent. I don't know about that.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:35 PM

Actually, would our two Gifteds necessarily have to say who they specifically were? Or would it be enough to know they were Gifted? Just thinking aloud, trying to keep as much useful data as possible from those who shouldn't get it.
Indeed... They would only have to specify if challenged, as I would assume their proof would demand revealing their role.

Sally- while your demands on Inzil look suspicious, I do realize you could have innocent intent. For instance, if you found clear Isildur hints in someone's posts, you could operate on the theory that he/she was Isildur and thus if Inzil could narrow down who his info was on, and if it wasn't on that particular person, you would then know for certain whether the village still had Anarion or Elendil, right? Because if Elendil is still alive Inzil would not know Isildur, but if it was Anarion still alive then he would know Isildur.

Am I guessing your theory correctly? I've been working on the same project...

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:38 PM

Indeed, Phantom. I may be able to prove/disprove Lottie's claim, but only if Dun trusts me.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 01:43 PM

Well, I don't really trust anyone but phantom and Brinn. What say you, tp?

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:46 PM

Well, I don't really trust anyone but phantom and Brinn.

We all know that isn't true....

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:46 PM

Honestly, Inzil, I wouldn't do anything.

Not trying to sabotage you, Sally, rather trying to help in a more round-about fashion.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:47 PM

Anyway, I'm off to clean my horrendous kitchen and flail with my gone but not forgotten prince about a certain apocalyptic television program we both love. I'll return after a fashion.

EDIT: x'd with Phantom, and noted

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:48 PM

As I demonstrated earlier with my population breakdown, Lottie's dream (if real) pretty well has to be a KM regardless of Lottie's affiliation. We may as well roll with it.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:48 PM

Not trying to sabotage you, Sally, rather trying to help in a more round-about fashion.

Not accusing you of sabotage. Keep reading. I think you'll find Isildur if you look close enough. (I got lucky, or I wouldn't know either.)

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:50 PM

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:50 PM

Hush, Sally. I already had it a while ago.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 01:53 PM

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 01:54 PM

We all know that isn't true....

Well, I don't trust anyone I'm naming but those two.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 01:55 PM

Not to mention, Sally, that both of your potential packs has Nerwen in it.

I outlined 10 packs last night and 8 had Nerwen in it (and Inzil had to be in both packs that didn't involve her, and we know that's not true).

My two primary packs have Nerwen, certainly. Not all of them do. But the ones that don't have her don't make a lot of sense from Lottie's perspective, because it would be counterintuitive for her to lie about Nerwen's guilt (unless she knew Nerwen was a gifted, but how could she?).

Kitchen and then a short nap, I think. I've had far too much caffeine this weekend. Bad plan....

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:01 PM

because it would be counterintuitive for her to lie about Nerwen's guilt (unless she knew Nerwen was a gifted, but how could she?).
Plus if Nerwen would have been Isildur she could've just saved herself from the lynch, right?

Anyway, glad to see you're not pestering Inzil any more. He already didn't like you much, but then who does? :p

(I haven't forgotten you calling me a "mean man".)

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:01 PM

In other words, I understand every aspect of what you're trying to do, and yet I'm still encouraging Inzil to say nothing. Is that not a good enough answer for you? (I mean sure, you can say that I can't know 100% that I'm right, but I'm pretty darn sure.)

If you understand everything I'm trying to do, then I assume you know what I'm actually asking Dun, and I don't think it's too much to ask.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 02:02 PM

Anyway, glad to see you're not pestering Inzil any more. He already didn't like you much, but then who does? :p

Aw, that isn't true! Distrust doesn't equal dislike. ;)

x/d with Sally

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:02 PM

Plus if Nerwen would have been Isildur she could've just saved herself from the lynch, right?

False. If Isildur is lynched, he's powerless to stop it.

IMPORTANT ROLE INFORMATION: due to the lack of players, there will be no CC. Isildur remains, but he cannot heal self. So, to summarize all the roles:

-KM: 3. Wolves.
-Elendil. Cannot reveal self/to self, cannot reveal same/to same person more than twice in a row.
-Amandil. Upon death next-in-line's identity is revealed to ordo.
-Isildur. Sends in name during Daytime until makes a save. If I receive no name by 10:30pm my time, no one is being saved that day.
-Anarion. Ranger. Can't protect 2ce in a row or more than 2 times/game. Can protect self.

EDIT: x'd with a very sweet Dun

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:05 PM

Ah, well, that's too bad about that rule change. But frankly I don't think Isildur is in any danger today, seeing as we're almost definitely lynching Nerwen.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:06 PM

Aw, that isn't true! Distrust doesn't equal dislike.
Heh heh... True. I mean- everyone loves me, but they never trust me. :D

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:07 PM

Heh heh... True. I mean- everyone loves me, but they never trust me. :D

Two of the words in this sentence are in the wrong place. :smokin:

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:08 PM

Anyway, we done here, Sally? Frankly if my theory is correct then you have all the information you need already. Yes?

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:15 PM

Anyway, we done here, Sally? Frankly if my theory is correct then you have all the information you need already. Yes?

More or less. Given recent events, I'm inclined to believe Lottie did in fact receive a dream last Night. Obviously I can't tell her intentions, but at the very least, I'm pretty sure we're safe to kill Nerwen toDay (though killing Nerwen wasn't really a question in my mind). We can deal with the rest toMorrow.

Is that what you wanted me to say? :rolleyes:

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:18 PM

It's precisely what I wanted you to say- but only if you're properly annoyed. When I have the luxury of being a proven innocent it's always a goal of mine to bug people just because I can get away with it. :p

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:19 PM

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:22 PM

I'm sure you'll give me a proper punch in the arm later this month when you come to town, right?

You see, I figure you'll do it anyway, so I may as well thoroughly earn it. :p

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:23 PM

I'm sure you'll give me a proper punch in the arm later this month when you come to town, right?

You see, I figure you'll do it anyway, so I may as well thoroughly earn it. :p

You're not wrong. (For a change.)

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:31 PM

Oh yeah, definitely in need of a bit of a nap. I'm all sorts of jittery these past few days. Just in case I oversleep, I'll vote before I head off. I don't think there's any reason to withhold votes. Or is there something I'm not considering?

Galadriel55

12-02-2012, 02:34 PM

If Anarion is known, probably he would be the next kill, as I don't think he can self-protect.

Anarion can self-protect.

False. If Isildur is lynched, he's powerless to stop it.

Quite right. Isildur can't protect himself.

A heads up to everyone - there may or may not be a rule change regarding (a) gifted(s) announced later toDay/toNight, due to me realizing that the game is not working as it should. I will update this information as regularly as I can.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:36 PM

A heads up to everyone - there may or may not be a rule change regarding (a) gifted(s) announced later toDay/toNight, due to me realizing that the game is not working as it should. I will update this information as regularly as I can.

Um....okay? Should I stick around for a bit?

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 02:37 PM

Anarion can self-protect.

Good to know. Thanks!

A heads up to everyone - there may or may not be a rule change regarding (a) gifted(s) announced later toDay/toNight, due to me realizing that the game is not working as it should. I will update this information as regularly as I can.

Two minutes before DL? :D

Question: is anyone still playing besides me, phantom, and Sally? ;)

x/d with Sally

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:38 PM

Question, is anyone still playing besides me, phantom, and Sally? ;)

If not, is it really a bad thing? After all, it means all the villains would be elsewhere, leaving us to lynch them at our leisure. :cool:

Loslote

12-02-2012, 02:43 PM

Good to know. Thanks!

Two minutes before DL? :D

Question: is anyone still playing besides me, phantom, and Sally? ;)

Well, yes, but I've given all my information already. I could speculate further, but my only two speculations from yesterDay - you and Sally - are either completely shot (in your case) or increasingly looking less likely (Sally). In my mind, it seems obvious that the other two KMs are hiding within the trio of Steve, Morsul, and Manwe. Considering that Zil may know which of these three is *not* the KM (and I definitely don't want you to say, since that'll expose Elendil unnecessarily), I feel pretty confident about the village's chances at this point.

Morsul the Dark

12-02-2012, 02:44 PM

the phantom

12-02-2012, 02:49 PM

In light of the Moddess's previous comment, listen up- if one of you is Elendil, do not attempt to reveal or pull some sort of ploy that gives you away, as the rule change may be that Elendil is not allowed to send a dream if he is killed.

Continue to lay low.

Galadriel55

12-02-2012, 02:49 PM

Um....okay? Should I stick around for a bit?

I will PM the gifted(s) that might be affected, so that everyone won't have to sit around waiting.

Therefore, if you do not get a PM, your role will not be changed.

And, no Zil, hopefully earlier than 2 minutes before DL. :)

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:51 PM

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 02:58 PM

I don't see a reason to hold my vote. I'd rather vote super early than sleep too long and not vote at all.

++Nerwen

I should be back in an hour or two.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 03:01 PM

Here for two minutes between errands.

Note: I'm putting assumed there because it's not 100% confirmed but pretty much accepted.

list:

Known Innocents:
Phantom
Brinn

Assumed Innocents:
Lottie
Inzil

Assumed evil
Nerwen

That leaves at least two packmates.
Sally
Manwe
Steve

Right now I'm thinking Sally Steve However if I'm wrong and Sally is in fact innocent then clearly Steve Manwe

Lottie isn't an assumed innocent. Even if she's telling the truth, she could still be a wolf who's just throwing her packmate under the bus to make herself seem legit.

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 03:10 PM

Morsul-->Sally
Lottie-->Nerwen
Nerwen-->Lottie
Sally-->Nerwen (2)

Yet to vote: Dun, Manwe, Phantom, Steve, Brinn

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 03:42 PM

It's just my luck that the Day where everything happens is the Day I have the least time for. Well, I should be here until DL now.

So, before I embark on the epic reread I meant to do earlier toDay to check some of my theories/suspicions, is there anything I need to do before we get to the next step of reveals and such?

the phantom

12-02-2012, 03:45 PM

So, before I embark on the epic reread I meant to do earlier toDay to check some of my theories/suspicions, is there anything I need to do before we get to the next step of reveals and such?
I don't believe so. Read away.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:04 PM

Loslote

12-02-2012, 04:08 PM

Regarding Amandil's Heir, I'm weighing the consequences of not giving them up, as well as the opposite.
If I don't and I'm killed toNight, the chance to name another innocent is gone. Then again, Anarion could help me out, possibly.
Hm.

I would say Elendil can reveal himself well enough. We'd trust a convincing Isildur or Anarion reveal - why should we need someone else to collaborate an Elendil reveal? I think the most good we got out of Amandil's death was the confirmation of your own innocence, Zil - revealing Elendil before it's necessary would be dangerous and, I think, not worth the risk.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:10 PM

I would say Elendil can reveal himself well enough. We'd trust a convincing Isildur or Anarion reveal - why should we need someone else to collaborate an Elendil reveal? I think the most good we got out of Amandil's death was the confirmation of your own innocence, Zil - revealing Elendil before it's necessary would be dangerous and, I think, not worth the risk.

Yeah, I agree. I'm just trying all the angles so I don't miss something.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 04:10 PM

Yeah, Inzil, it's a tough call. But if what I've seen isn't a coincidence or fluke, then I think the person you have can prove their identity plenty well if they become a lynching target.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:12 PM

Yeah, Inzil, it's a tough call. But if what I've seen isn't a coincidence or fluke, then I think the person you have can prove their identity plenty well if they become a lynching target.

Ok then.

Looks like there's not a lot of room for doubt on toDay's vote, anyway. Lottie's truthfulness is easy enough to prove. I would have expected a bit more fight from a Nerwolf, though.

Galadriel55

12-02-2012, 04:13 PM

Still need to figure some things out. I'm leaving for a couple hours, and I don't want this to come as a big surprise right before DL.

Elendil cannot anymore send dreams to known innocents.

Anarion cannot protect himself.

Amandil - upon his death the next gifted's name could be sent to any payer, not necessarily ordo.

Isildur - can't really think of a way to simplify this one. If I take anything away from him he'll be an ordo.

This is a tentative version, as I am still waiting for something.

I'm sorry all. I know I should have thought of all this before the game started. I guess I didn't think the logistics through well enough. It was definitelly planned for a bigger village. I appreciate any feedback in my PM box; I'll get back to it as soon as I come home again.

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 04:15 PM

So, votes. Just to make it easier to see things.

Night 1
Elendil dream: Phantom -> Brinn

Day 1
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta*[Amandil] ++ Eonwe
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Eonwe (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro* ++ Lottie
Brinn ++ Eomer
Sally ++ Eomer
Phantom ++ Lottie
Eonwe ++ Eomer

Isildur pick:?

Night 2
KM kill: Boro*
Elendil dream: Shasta*[Amandil] -> Phantom
Anarion pick: ?

Day 2
Pom ++ Sally
Morsul ++ Pom
Inzil ++ Eonwe
Shasta*[Amandil] ++ Pom (2)
Manwe ++ Morsul
Brinn ++ Inzil
Nerwen ++ Pom (3)
Phantom ++ Sally (2)
Lottie ++ Sally (3)
Sally ++ Pom (4)
{Eonwe ++ Inzil (2)} Too late

Isildur Pick: ?

Night 3
KM Kill: Shasta*[Amandil] -> Inzil
Elendil dream: ? {claimed: Lottie -> Nerwen}
Anarion pick: ?

Day 3
Morsul-->Sally
Lottie-->Nerwen
Nerwen-->Lottie
Sally-->Nerwen (2)

Key:
Bold = alive
Underlined= known innocent (i.e. ordo/gifted)
Italics = known KM
* = Gifted
[role]= known gifted role
(x)= number of votes that day
<x>= number of times a person has cast the same vote

I have included uncontested claims for convenience.

Loslote

12-02-2012, 04:16 PM

Amandil - upon his death the next gifted's name could be sent to any payer, not necessarily ordo.

How would this work retroactively?

EDIT: xed with ZIl

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:16 PM

Amandil - upon his death the next gifted's name could be sent to any payer, not necessarily ordo.

I received the identity under the old rules though. I don't see how that can change retroactively.

x/d with Steve and Lottie

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 04:20 PM

I received the identity under the old rules though. I don't see how that can change retroactively.
Well, I assume it's since there's no definitive proof that Shasta was Amandil, even if we do believe you.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 04:21 PM

Well, I assume it's since there's no definitive proof that Shasta was Amandil, even if we believe.
Exactly.

(looking at the rules...)

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:22 PM

Well, I assume it's since there's no definitive proof that Shasta was Amandil, even if we do believe you.

Other than the fact that he was a known Gifted, and said he was Amandil.

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:27 PM

I realize it's a self-serving argument, but why would Shasta have lied? Amandil's only gift was having the identity of one of his heirs made known. Without knowing who Amandil is, it's meaningless.

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 04:33 PM

I realize it's a self-serving argument, but why would Shasta have lied? Amandil's only gift was having the identity of one of his heirs made known. Without knowing who Amandil is, it's meaningless.

It's not about not trusting you or Shasta. It's about the fact that the whole point of the game is that their's no certainty of gifted roles.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 04:33 PM

But of course, if we use the "proven" standard, then Elendil can send a dream to anyone as he himself never dreams thus he cannot "know" anything. :D

(The intent is clear, of course. Just having fun.)

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:37 PM

It's not about not trusting you or Shasta. It's about the fact that the whole point of the game is that their's no certainty of gifted roles.

True. My point though is that we know Shasta was innocent, and I see no reason for an innocent to falsely claim to be Amandil. Like I said, that defeats the purpose of the role.

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 04:37 PM

This is what I meant to post with my last post. Bolding mine.

-Amandil. Upon his death the Valar grant him a boon, and so the identity (but not exact role) of the next in his line (Elendil, or if he’s dead then Isildur...) is revealed to a randomly selected ordo immediately after his death.

The receiver of the dream sees “King’s Man”, “ordo”, or “gifted” – not a gifted’s specific role.

SPECIAL NOTE: the narrations will NOT reveal a gifted’s role.

edit: x-ed with the last two posts.

the phantom

12-02-2012, 04:40 PM

Okay, so I cannot receive a dream, Brin cannot receive a dream, and Inzil cannot receive a dream. Also, Anarion cannot self-protect. Those are the pertinent points here, and they are worth considering for the sake of strategy...

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:40 PM

In line with Steve's last, I'll say that I don't know who is Elendil or Isildur. I only have the name of which player has one of those roles.

x/d with phantom

Eönwë

12-02-2012, 04:42 PM

True. My point though is that we know Shasta was innocent, and I see no reason for an innocent to falsely claim to be Amandil. Like I said, that defeats the purpose of the role.
I really don't think anyone doubts that Shasta was Amandil. I put him as that in my list because I think it's pretty much agreed that that was the case. But since the Moddess said she wouldn't give any information about gifted roles then she didn't.

I think we can move on from this discussion (which isn't really a discussion, just the three of us agreeing), because it's pretty clear you're not going to be forced to retract your 'dream'.

But of course, if we use the "proven" standard, then Elendil can send a dream to anyone as he himself never dreams thus he cannot "know" anything. :D

(The intent is clear, of course. Just having fun.)
This is totally going to turn into a philosophical discussion, isn't it? Where's Noggie when you need to discuss epistemology?

edit: x-ed since my last

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:53 PM

This is totally going to turn into a philosophical discussion, isn't it? Where's Noggie when you need to discuss epistemology?

What came first, the ordo or the wolf?

Loslote

12-02-2012, 04:53 PM

This is totally going to turn into a philosophical discussion, isn't it? Where's Noggie when you need to discuss epistemology?

What is the Form of Wolf? :eek:

EDIT: Seems Zil and I had a similar idea. :p

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 04:54 PM

Anyway, I'll keep the Heir's ID to myself. If they want to reveal, I'll just confirm it.

Morsul the Dark

12-02-2012, 04:58 PM

What came first, the ordo or the wolf?

depends if the innocent is a CC.

As for everything else. Zil I think narrowing the field further would be good for tomorrow in case the KM do come after you... If Lottie is telling the truth Erendil is alive meaning the gifted you have is 50/50 Anarion or Isildur. are we sure we have the luxury of waiting?

I should be around for the next hour. Sorry about this day off and day 3 collided so a lot of catching up on errands and such today.

Loslote

12-02-2012, 05:00 PM

Inziladun

12-02-2012, 05:01 PM

satansaloser2005

12-02-2012, 05:04 PM

As for everything else. Zil I think narrowing the field further would be good for tomorrow in case the KM do come after you... If Lottie is telling the truth Erendil is alive meaning the gifted you have is 50/50 Anarion or Isildur. are we sure we have the luxury of waiting?

That's actually inaccurate. If Lottie is telling the truth, Dun has the name of Elendil. If not, Dun's got the identity of Isildur.

As far as the reveal, I'm feeling pretty good about things. Assuming there's still a seer, they can send something to who they think is the other gifted. If not, we have a ranger who can hopefully make a good choice for toNight's protection. Assuming I understand everything correctly, we'll be fine come the Morrow, even if Dun dies (not that I wish for that to happen, of course).

EDIT: x'd with Lottie and Dun