WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow [Archive] - Page 2?login=1

Volo

01-24-2013, 03:57 PM

Impressions (unfortunately based mostly on Day1 and a quick skim):
A Little Green, "Green" - been on rather friendly terms, playing careful, trying to avoid taking a negative stance - ok, that's my reactions due to her agreeing with a few of my thoughts. Feels like a bit too obvious a strategy for a Wizer, more like being careful not to make too many assumptions. I'd say Innocentish zone.
Bane Mantra, "Bane" - sharp eye on the situation, I'd be surprised if is a Wizer.
Boromir88, "Bore" - something doesn't fit, actually my impression is a bit like when we were Wolf partners ages ago.
Brinniel, "Brin" - Critical eye, I feel she'd more good if she were Innocent than damage as a Wizer, otherwise I can't say which way she'd go.
Coppermirror, "Cop" - I might bite the idea that Pom tried to avoid actually having Cop lynched, which would point to Cop being suspicious. At that point it would have been a safe move for Pom, since I don't regard her being once suspected before her vote.
Gil-Galad, "Gil" - When I last played with Gil, his playing style was rather varied based on his role, this game he certainly resembles his Wolf-self: the active caring contribution, being of what feels like a central player, also more desperation than otherwise. Sorry, but avoiding lynching based on strong hunches feels silly at the moment - and there was a series of comments where he was defended quite strongly: I did that in one post, Boro several times, also sally. I felt there was something odd with his feud with Nerwen - like two active players on the same side getting too agressive (I recall Wolves usually staying to the side in such situations - or clearly dissociation from each other). Actually, now that I write down my thoughts, I'm not so sure and will once again give us the benefit of doubt.
Inziladun, "Lad" - Flying over my radar, actually.
Kath, "Kat" - Innocent? The most likely Cobber to my eyes. Dunno.
Loslote, "Lot" - Submarining under my radar, actually.
McCaber, "Cab" - I've had my doubts, but atm doesn't ring alarm clocks.
Morsul the Dark, "Mors" - I don't recall playing with him, but he seems genuine and I would feel surprised if he were a Wizer.
Nerwen, "Nerve" - I've done quite a lot of rethinking about my attitude towards her yesterday, since it bugged me that I ended up voting her while not too sure about her guilt, the other candidates felt less suspicious. I admit, I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case.
Nogrod, "Nog" - He seems to have written more general observations conserning the game than actual analysis of this particular game. Somehow that feels a bit off. But then again, he often implies that he's in a hurry, and I can certainly connect to that. Ah, I trust I've played enough with him to figure him in the end, but nothing more than a slight wariness at the moment.
Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.
Rikae, "Rick" - I'm growingly more wary with Rikae. Her actions seem like Pom^2. She's been influencing without answering for the responcibility.
satansaloser2005, "Sal" - No idea. Carefree?
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz" - too little data.
Volo, "Vol" - I'll have loads more time on Day3 and Day4, so if you can forgive me for not keeping up, I'll try to earn my place.
Is G55 playing in this game?

xd w everything since 23:21

Huh! My internet connection was reset and I nearly had a heart attack with even this being deleted.

Nogrod

01-24-2013, 03:57 PM

Assuming it is just us, Volo would be a ridiculous move, as we'd only tie him with Oz and Oz would still die. Thus, unless someone else shows up, our options seem to be Oz and Morsul.
Exactly.

Unless Greenie somehow miraculously appears...

So which one would you suggest: Oz or MOrsul?

I could go with either (there's reason for both picks).

Oz is a relative newcomer and might earn a go for it but Morsul could be just his normal...

satansaloser2005

01-24-2013, 03:58 PM

Oooo! Also, if Morsul is a wizard, his choosing to vote Oz over Volo would make the third lad look very bad as well.

Volo

01-24-2013, 03:58 PM

Ok:

++Ozban

Morsul feels Innocent.

Nogrod

01-24-2013, 03:59 PM

Agreeing with Sally

++ Morsul

satansaloser2005

01-24-2013, 03:59 PM

Didn't actually mean to quote that. Whoops. Anyway, as I was saying....

++Morsul

EDIT: x'd with Volo and Nog. Oh, for God's sake.

Nogrod

01-24-2013, 04:00 PM

This turns out interesting indeed!!!

Rikae

01-24-2013, 04:01 PM

Part of my reason for voting for Oz has evaporated (part I didn't mention) but I still see reason to vote for him, at least more so than Morsul.

Edit: X'd with everyone since Sal #263.

Thinlómien

01-24-2013, 04:01 PM

Deadline, stop posting.

Ozban has been lynched.

Narration to follow...

Thinlómien

01-24-2013, 04:31 PM

Stupid as they are, the trolls were clever enough to figure out what had happened the day before when they had been asleep. They started arguing, as usual, and calling each other ugly names (which did sound quite endearing actually, but you wouldn't dare to tell that to their faces, of course) until they reached a consensus they wanted to kill a wizard.

"Great, so how do we get one?" asked Green. "The shoe thing didn't really work."
"What about socks?" asked Nerve. "I've been a-looking at Nog's socks."
"I've been looking at Mors' socks", Oz growled.
"Trolls don't wear socks!" Cab shouted.
"Yer right," agreed Brin.
"What's that thing on Mors' feet then?" asked Lot.
"It looks an awful lot like socks to me," Kat agreed.
"Green socks," Nog added.
"Furry green socks," Sal clarified.
"Idiots!" said Rick. "It is mold."
"Blimey! Yer right," said Gil.
"Hey but Oz has socks!" Lad pointed out.
Everybody turned to look at Oz and lo! He was unmistakably wearing red-and-yellow striped socks.
"That is not mold," said Mors gleefully.
"True as a troll," said Cop.
"I say we sit on him and squeeze his wizardry out of him," Vol opined to the delight of the other trolls.

Even though Oz was a big and strong troll, he was no match for more than a dozen of his kind, so they subdued him and sat on him, one by one, until they formed a nice pyramid of fourteen trolls. (Bane, Bore and Shaz were all having a nap, and their snores were so loud that had the pyramid been made of anything less heavy than trolls, I'm sure it would have toppled over.) For a long time, Oz was trying to fight his way under the other trolls' massive, smelly bodies, but after some time he stopped struggling.

"Does that mean we can get off?" asked Rick, who was the lowermost of the other trolls.
"He could still be alive," said Lad.
"He hasn't got any smaller," added Mors carefully. "Only p'raps a little flatter."
"I'm not enjoying this," said Cop. "That fat oaf Vol is a-crushing me."
"Then move yerself you booby," said Vol, and with these words, all the trolls started crawling out of their troll pyramid with many curses and confusions.

In the end, they all got back in their feet again, and only Oz was lying on the floor. He looked the same as ever, only deader, and thus the trolls learned that wearing socks doesn't always mean you are not a troll.

~*~

Dumb and Dead
Thinlómien, "Lom", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Legate of Amon Lanc, "Leg", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Pomegranate, "Pom", a Wizard, boiled and eaten on Day 1
Ozban, "Oz", an Ordinary Troll, crushed to death by a troll pyramid on Day 2

Dumb and Walking
A Little Green, "Green"
Bane Mantra, "Bane"
Boromir88, "Bore"
Brinniel, "Brin"
Coppermirror, "Cop"
Gil-Galad, "Gil"
Inziladun, "Lad"
Kath, "Kat"
Loslote, "Lot"
McCaber, "Cab"
Morsul the Dark, "Mors"
Nerwen, "Nerve"
Nogrod, "Nog"
Rikae, "Rick"
satansaloser2005, "Sal"
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz"
Volo, "Vol"

~*~

Night 3 falls. Clever troll, Insomniac troll, Purse-troll, send both the mods your picks whenever you're ready. Wizards, start plotting and choose your victim. Others, shut yer bloody mouths!

Thinlómien

01-25-2013, 04:01 PM

When dawn broke, the wizards were angrier than ever. Yes, one more troll was dead, but their schemes had gone awry.

"The daytime is the time we can act, yet we came to naught! This cannot happen again!" said the first wizard.
"We have come to dark times," said the second wizard. "Perhaps it is not our fate succeed, but that of these evil creatures to roam the lands freely. The Dark Lord's hand has grown long - perhaps it already reaches these remote lands."
"Do not despair!" said the third wizard. "For there is one thing that always remains: hope."
"Fool's hope I name it now," said the second wizard bitterly.
"Nay, it would be folly to give up now. We still have each other, three of our high order, and together we may yet do great things," said the first wizard, and thus the second wizard's doubts were eased and he laughed.
"Time may prove our greatest ally," he said after a while.
"Indeed," said the third wizard. "So what shall we do with the time that is given to us?"

Long they debated again, both on which troll would they be the wisest to slay - and this did take time, for they all kept in mind that advice is a dangerous gift even when it is given by the wise to the wise and thus ended up saying nothing for a long time - and how to do it. But we have to remember that they were wizards, great spirits from the West, not mere mortals, so in the end, they again managed to make a plan.

Even more quietly than the day before, they crept into the cave where the trolls lay sleeping. The one they wanted to kill lay sleeping on his side in the middle of the cave. They surrounded the troll and the first wizard took his staff. Carefully, he drew runes on the sleeping troll's stomach and the picture of a great gate.

"Are you certain this will work?" the second wizard whispered. "I do not mean to be pessimistic, but..."
"I fail to see why a stone troll should be any different from some other kind of piece of stone," replied the first wizard.
"Worry not," said the third wizard to the second. "He knows what he is doing. Did he not study the secrets of door making with Narvi in Khazad-dûm?"
"Shh," said the first wizard, who was concentrating. They all looked at the troll and the markings that glowed blue on his stomach. Then the first wizard spoke in a commanding voice:

"Annon istarion, edro hi ammen! Lasto beth lammen!"

For a split second, they thought nothing happened.
"Edro!" they chanted in unison and lo! the troll groaned and his stomach parted in the middle. Caught between horror, fascination and self-congratulation, they wizards watched his guts spilling to the stone floor.
"Now back to sleep before that insomniac spots us!" whispered the third wizards, who was the quickest to recover his senses. They did as he bid them, and fell asleep again in their troll disguises.

When the sun set, they woke up alongside with the real trolls. There was a horrible clamor and noise in the cave, and some disbelieving howling and cursing, for none of the trolls could comprehend how Vol's intestines could have just exited his body during the day. What they comprehended even less, however, was what they found in his pocket. It was a note that said:

"SUPORT LETR TO WIZERS. KIL TROLS, I GET MORE FOOD. I WILL HEPL U."

~*~

Dumb and Dead
Thinlómien, "Lom", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Legate of Amon Lanc, "Leg", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Pomegranate, "Pom", a Wizard, boiled and eaten on Day 1
Ozban, "Oz", an Ordinary Troll, crushed to death by a troll pyramid on Day 2
Volo, "Vol", Traitor Troll, magically opened up like a door on Night 3

Dumb and Walking
A Little Green, "Green"
Bane Mantra, "Bane"
Boromir88, "Bore"
Brinniel, "Brin"
Coppermirror, "Cop"
Gil-Galad, "Gil"
Inziladun, "Lad"
Kath, "Kat"
Loslote, "Lot"
McCaber, "Cab"
Morsul the Dark, "Mors"
Nerwen, "Nerve"
Nogrod, "Nog"
Rikae, "Rick"
satansaloser2005, "Sal"
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz"

~*~

Day 3 starts! Stop PMing and start talking.

Loslote

01-25-2013, 04:09 PM

The wizards killed their cobbler? No need for discussion, it's obvious one of them must be Boro! ;):p

Inziladun

01-25-2013, 04:14 PM

The wizards killed their cobbler? No need for discussion, it's obvious one of them must be Boro! ;):p

Really! Nice of them to save us the trouble. I wonder what got their attention on him that way?

Nogrod

01-25-2013, 04:18 PM

The Wizards clearly are not making the best choices... :)

Just a quick one that has bothered me since I saw it in the end of D2. What do you mean by this Rikae? I mean it's not like you to panic on the last minute so what was that? What was the intention behind the need to make that statement?
Part of my reason for voting for Oz has evaporated (part I didn't mention) but I still see reason to vote for him, at least more so than Morsul.

Also, I'm very curious as to why they picked Volo. Needs to see about that - and others should as well. For one thing is that the Wizers seldomly kill randomly...

Here's the voting from yesterDay meanwhile.

D2

Nerwen -> Nog
Oz -> Morsul
McCaber -> Rikae
Brinn -> Volo
Lottie -> Morsul 2
Gil -> Volo 2
Rikae -> Oz
Zil -> Oz 2
Kath -> Morsul 3
Morsul -> Oz 3
Copper -> Oz 4
Volo -> Oz 5
Nog -> Morsul 4
Sally -> Morsul 5

Did not vote: Greenie, Bane, Boro, Shasta

Inziladun

01-25-2013, 04:33 PM

Also, I'm very curious as to why they picked Volo. Needs to see about that - and others should as well. For one thing is that the Wizers seldomly kill randomly...

It begs the question of whether Volo was their blocked target, ie were they after him from the start, or was it something from yesterNight only that painted him as a threat? Being in search of a trailless kill or one that's difficult to lynch doesn't seem to apply in this case.

Nogrod

01-25-2013, 04:39 PM

It begs the question of whether Volo was their blocked target, ie were they after him from the start, or was it something from yesterNight only that painted him as a threat?With a "village" - a cave - this big the chances of missing a kill are minuscule (and our Wizards managed to hit it wrong the first Night, yes) so I'd say it would be very stupid from the wolves to stay with their N1 pick in case they had reason to think someone else looked seerish on the basis of D2... Now it is possible they thought Volo seerish both on D1 and D2 and ran for him on both Nights, sure, but that's something looking back at what Volo said on BOTH Days is something worth doing - and by more pairs of eyes than just one.

I'm at it right now, but would like some others to give their eye on it as well.

Rikae

01-25-2013, 05:00 PM

Well, so it wasn't Nogrod, as I thought early yesterDay, or Kath, as I thought later yesterDay. Maybe not having to suspect everyone of cobblerism will make things a bit easier.

Nog - I thought he was a seer-dreamed wolf, which didn't make sense by the end of the day, though he still looked suspicious to me.

Boromir88

01-25-2013, 05:13 PM

Hilarious Lottie. :p

Apologies about yesterday, I was blindsided with whole day becoming occupied. There still a good chunk of Day 2 I need to read, but I've thoroughly digested Day 1 and here's what I've gotten up to in terms of analysis (there will be Day 1 and 2 analysis on everyone who is still alive). I'm not going to quote every post or note written because that would be really extraneous...don't think anyone wants to read "____ was suspicious of ____ in post #__ because of _______ reasons." If requested I'll provide the relevant posts and quotes.

Begining with Pom since she just has 1 day and the rest will be in order according to the Mod list

*Also note not completely getting through Day 2 yet I very well might be repeating what others have already brought up yesterday, but you'll just have to deal with it.*

Pom

Day 1 Analysis:

The important point to keep in mind is at this point Pom had no votes, and she leaves probably not even thinking she’s in danger of being lynched. It was only after she leaves and her peculiar #103 that gets the suspicion and votes going against her. So basically everything she says, if looked at from the wizard’s bias of Pom knows who’s innocent and her other mates, can be looked at as she’s not stating anything in an attempt to save herself.

For instance in #92, she says she’s inclined to think between the Gil and Nerwen battle both are innocent. I’ve used this tactic many many times as a wolf. When the inevitable battle between two people occur on Day 1, and already having the knowledge both are innocent, throwing out a “both are probably just innocents fighting” makes one look better if it just so happens one of them winds up getting lynched. If it’s an argument between a wolf-mate and an innocent, I don’t recall every purposefully drawing attention to the matter. I suppose it’s possible, because Pom would likely act a different baddie than myself, but I saw #92 and chuckled with the hindsight bias of finding out Pom’s guilt and I’ve used the same tactic before to look all smart and reasonable. “These two knuckleheads arguing are probably both innocent.” And if one winds up getting the other lynched, just an easy tactic to make it look like you've made a wise, substantial point about something.

And #103 the infamous “keep an eye on the Cop voters” it’s not so much that part which was interesting and led to the wizard getting lynched. It’s her reaction to McCaber’s that makes McCaber look innocent. She’s not making these posts with any worry that she will wind up getting lynched Day 1, so why suddenly draw attention to McCaber’s vote as one that looks to be jumping onto a bandwagon, when interestingly enough, Pom does the same? It’s funny, Rikae was the one who originally pointed out unease about Cop (in 66), based on a recap of banter is really about as useful as banter itself. I said in #70 I didn’t like the vote, not because of the earliness of it, but I didn’t understand what made my banter more gut-feeling bad than the rest (something that Nerwen also questioned in Post #57). Pom in 92, Rikae 93 and McCaber 94 all say the basic point about not liking Cop’s vote for me (woah that‘s like an elite army of troll guards to my defense :-/). If anything, Pom was looking like an opportunistic bandwagoner along with McCaber. But Pom had a slightly higher ground to stand on as her post came in first out of the 3. So why would a guilty Pom point this out in #103 if McCaber was a wizard mate?

-----

Greenie

Day 1 analysis -

Nothing obviously alarming from Day 1, a normal, methodical Greenie. It’s her actions and end result that is suspect. #110 her only comment about Pom’s post 103 is “she’s got some nerve saying it.” In #118 it’s a semi-defense arguing it should be disregarded if she was joking, and seen hypocritical if she was serious, but it really doesn’t point to anything. And spends most of her Day 1 posts to steer focus on McCaber’s opportunistic vote against Cop, and not on Pom’s same opportunistic reasons. Given Pom’s allegiance, and not knowing McCaber’s, this does look like a subtle, but consistant effort to divert focus off Pom’s vote and peculiar statement onto McCaber.

Day 2 analysis -

#201 Agrees with Nerwen’s point:

[3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.

This is why she remains “somewhat suspicious of McCaber”…(My note of interest here: Considering Greenie voted for McCaber and gave 3 reasons for it, albeit Day 1, and one of those a “gut-feeling” it still had the appearance of about as reasoned as a vote as one might expect for Day 1. I’m not sure what changed…I would think she would still remain highly suspicious about the fact that McCaber made an opportunistic looking vote and not attempt to slowly back away from the suspicion if it were earnest suspicions. This does raise the first big wizardly flags, because after trying to steer the focus onto McCaber the previous Day, given that Pomwizer was lynched, it seems Greenie wants to now drop the case). She brings up we may be over interpreting Pom’s peculiar statement, which makes it seem like she doesn’t want anyone going back to look at her posts trying to put focus onto McCaber’s vote and not Pom’s. Too bad, I have. :p

Definitely suspicious of Greenie’s actions. In #222 Greenie makes a sudden turn to feeling good about McCaber saying he made a "shrewd point" that Rikae was trying to turn focus on him and away from Pom. When interestly enough, Greenie was doing the same, she gave reasoned defenses for Pom’s post in #110, while also putting the focus on McCaber’s opportunistic looking vote.

-----

Forgot Bane only has 1 day of analysis to look at too:

Aside from not voting at all, despite giving Pom as his #1 suspect, looks fairly good so far. Thought there would be more to analyze and go off of for Day 2, but doesn’t show up. Hopefully he does today. Undetermined, but leaning innocent/nothing alarming. He says Pom's post 103 looks incongruous there is an exchange with Greenie about this point, so I'd like to hear what Bane thinks about Greenie now that we know Pom's role.

-----

Brinn

Day 1 analysis -

Didn’t agree with her Day 1 vote for Nerwen, but it wasn’t as suspicious looking as I originally thought. It should be known it’s hard to determine when the banter should end and more substantive posts begin. When it’s a fairly straight forward game, without much in terms of new roles and strategy to consider, all you can pretty much say is IC and banter. There’s nothing substantive to say, until some votes start coming in and you can clearly see “ok where is there a bandwagon starting? Does it look opportunistic or justified?…etc.” Banter tends to weed itself out without the prodding of other members “ok folks we’re at post #42 IC and banter time is up.” Having said that, it seems like an honest philosophical difference about Day 1, since starting out without any clues and yet having to vote early, like Brinn had to, you’re really in the dark with only banter to rely on.

Day 2 analysis -

Reasoning looks innocent and honest (see primarily Post 187). Disagree about some of those she seems to be trusting at the moment (Greenie), and therefore I’m not going to completely trust her findings, but gives clear insight and opinion on everyone. Makes it easy to see where she stands on everyone.

----

Time to finish the rest of this large crowd....

Nogrod

01-25-2013, 05:22 PM

About Volocobbler

#3
Says he will start tasting us trolls to see who tastes like a Wizer… also says “I'll go back to sleep though if I can find which way the cave goes deeper and which is the way back to the entrence. I never know. But I like waking up late in the night”.

So faking a seer? I mean you could read that in the way of him hinting at being a seer now that you look at it. Well, a reason for a close-reading Wizard to get suspicious of him anyway (even if I do wonder about Volo’s intention here).

#55
Questions McCaber’s use of the word “suspicious” in post #29 and says they felt somewhat exaggerated.

#72
Defends Kath quite clearly: “The case with Kath seems too harsh… currently no other interpretation but troll feels based enough to me. Until further notice that is”.

#108
Backtracks on Kath. Says Morsul is either fishy or thoughtless. Both two he explains by their posts. Then says of Nerwen she’s “cold” more based on gut. Sympathizes Gil and hopes him to stay around. Explains his own inactivity…

#126
Asks Brinn why she thinks Rikae looks genuine. Continues with suspecting Rikae saying he’s “clearly looking more closely at Rikae”.

#132
Vote-tally. Says: “Nerwen I'm not sure about, but Pom feels more genuine (although I haven't gone through her posts as carefully), McCaber is more on the naughty side compared to the others”.

#137
“Ok, Nerwen is the one I find the most suspicious of those who have votes and will vote for her to save McCaber if I can't agree with someone on a more suspicious character. Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.”

#139
Votes Nerwen. With the almost infamous comment: “This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning”.

#143
Explains he had read the votes wrongly between Pom and Copper. Says Copper doesn’t look that suspicious.

Day2

#205
Interesting post indeed. Starts with Copper and her not being sounding “entirely genuine”.

Then he goes on saying that Nerwen broughts Cop up (and that there’s nothing incriminating in Nerwen bringing on that) and Rikae goes for it… And he decides to mention that Nerwen stays ambiguos about Cop and Rikae “diminishes her suspicion” on her, but the damage is already done and that “something smells” there.

#261
Analyses people… (more of that in the next post with some thoughts about Volo as a possible seer from the POV of the wolves)

#264
Votes Ozban as Morsul "feels innocent".

Morsul the Dark

01-25-2013, 05:31 PM

Well at least the cobbler's gone...

Honestly hate that Oz was an ordo, ruined a good 1 day streak there.

Have a feeling I'm pretty high on everyone's chopping block today...

Will look into the Oz and Morsul voters... So pretty much half the players.

Nogrod

01-25-2013, 05:37 PM

So, why would the Wizards think of Volo as the seer?

His suggestion he will "start tasting us" combined with a talk of him "sleeping" in his first post could have been interpreted by the wolves as a seer hint (albeit a clumsy and a little bit too open one for the real seer, I'd say).

But his actions at the end of D2 might be interpreted as seerish as well. He has been a long away and comes in three minutes before the DL with a full list of people and his thoughts on them. So using a lot of time before the DL with the game but not participating in the actual discussion, but preparing a kind of "testament" of his thoughts in case he is killed before this Day?

Nevertheless, I do not think these two would be enough for the Wizards to think Volo was the seer. He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).

So a third post coming soonish (I hope) to see which could be the hits Volo made... in case I'm right in the first place that the Wizards killed Volo for being the seer.

Nogrod

01-25-2013, 06:04 PM

It seems Volo suspects Nerwen somewhat on D1 and even votes her, but on D2 he seems to clear her (he mentions her in a suspicious envirovement but kind of defends her at the same time) - in the end of the Day he says he feels like he has "lost his case" on her.

That would speak volumes on behalf of Nerwen's innocence if it was that the Wizards thought of him as the seer. What would have been more likely from a seer than to pick his suspected & voted-person of the Day as a dream during the next Night and then after seeing her innocent defending her openly?

Then there is also Rikae with whom Volo's death looks really bad indeed... Volo seems to suspect her already on D1 (and Rikae might make a decent N1 seer-dream, at least she would be high on my agenda were I a seer) and seems even more critical of her on D2, actually comparing her to PomWizard. And what is remarkable is that he doesn't actually have a "case" to bring against Rikae but he most of the times just hints she is worth suspecting.

I do see a problem with these thought combined though... Clearly a seer could not have been able to dream of both Nerwen (innocent?) and Rikae (Wizard?) both on N2 and thus the Wizards wouldn't have thought of him doing that as they would have known that to be an impossible scenario.

But does that incriminate Nerwen any more (I doubt it does aka. I think her more innocent than not becasue of Volo's death), or does it free Rikae from the suspicion (I tend to think not at the moment as I could see the scenario with her being a wolf much more plausible).

As for other candidates Volo suspected in the end of D2 in his tally of us all, there were Boro and Gil whom both he talks about as playing like when they are wolves.

Sure it is possible the wolves just tried to get rid of someone who was not protected or who would leave as many false tracks as possible. And I'm the last to throw away that option.

Nogrod

01-25-2013, 06:31 PM

So finally -and to go to sleep - a disclaimer I think is worthy of mentioning.

YesterDay I thought Rikae a little suspicious but had nothing concrete to base it on but just a slight feeling of unease (which I have on basically all of you but stronger on some than others). But then she posted her odd statement at the last seconds of the game and I went like "what?".

Then reading back Volo's posting and thinking about the wolves thinking him the seer made me look at Rikae as even more suspicious. Nice, right?

But then I remembered that last post she made yesterDay - and it looks like even more puzzling now... And I mean puzzling, not more suspicious.

Yes, you Rikae came forwards pretty soon to kind of answer my question about what did you mean by that post (that you thought earlier Oz was a seer-dreamt wolf but had changed your mind), but what you didn't answer - and what puzzles me the most - is why you thought that was such an important piece of infromation you'd need to post it even if it went over the DL (like it actually did). Especially as you had posted comments twenty minutes before the DL but then remained silent untill the last minute - only to make that statement.

I am even more puzzled by that last comment now.

Gil-Galad

01-25-2013, 07:27 PM

Wow, this is just... wow. What a game.

Looking at last days voting, I really don't know where to start from.

Just a heads up, I may not be able to vote toDay, I have multiple doctors appointments tomorrow morning, so I can't guarantee anything.

Coppermirror

01-25-2013, 08:21 PM

I'm here and will start reading, but having skimmed the update, I must echo Gil: wow. Didn't think I'd have cause to say this, but good work, wizzers! Also, I suppose that puts paid to the Cobbler-Nog theory.

Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection. Time to take a good look through.

Even aside from the obvious reason to be happy for the wizzards gracefully handing us the Traitor Troll, I'm pleased because this is just so interesting a twist. Volo had been under such a lot of suspicion yesterDay. I'd have expected them to leave him in as a potential lynch-ee toDay.

Incidentally, I don't have to vote early toDay, and can probably be here until the deadline. (I had thought I would have to vote early, but it turns out I don't have to be at work then after all. However, if I'm alive for the next two Days after, both of those will be early votes.)

McCaber

01-25-2013, 09:20 PM

McCaber's Patented Volalysis: Do Not Steal

Post 3: Fluff based around licking and sleeping.
Post 55: Calling me out based around the use of the word "suspicious" in my post 29.
Post 72: Claims he can't hear anything and doesn't suspect Kath.
Post 108: Claims Kath might be the Clever Troll and says the wizards might vote as a group on day 1.
Post 126: Questions Brin about Rikae, and has some opinions about the latter that I really can't figure out from the post. Textbook cobbler in that there are words and sentences, but stringing the sentences into a whole is nigh-impossible.
Post 132: Vote tally
Post 137: Claims Nerwen is more suspicious than me and will settle on her if no one better becomes a candidate.
Post 139: Votes Nerwen while saying Pom and I are less suspicious.
Post 143: Clarifies his thought position in his voting post.
Post 205: Blames Nerwen and Rikae for suspecting CM on day 1. I find this post really weird and hard to see the full reasoning behind it. Again, textbook cobbler.
Post 261: General impressions of everyone. Thinks Boro to be the most suspicious and says everyone else looks innocent, albeit in a backhanded way.
Post 264: Votes Ozban, says Morsul looks innocent.

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

Nerwen

01-25-2013, 09:24 PM

Then there is also Rikae with whom Volo's death looks really bad indeed... Volo seems to suspect her already on D1 (and Rikae might make a decent N1 seer-dream, at least she would be high on my agenda were I a seer) and seems even more critical of her on D2, actually comparing her to PomWizard. And what is remarkable is that he doesn't actually have a "case" to bring against Rikae but he most of the times just hints she is worth suspecting.

I do see a problem with these thought combined though... Clearly a seer could not have been able to dream of both Nerwen (innocent?) and Rikae (Wizard?) both on N2 and thus the Wizards wouldn't have thought of him doing that as they would have known that to be an impossible scenario.
Confused by this, Nog That first paragraph seems to be describing a scenario of Rikae as the supposed Night 1 dream- then you say it wouldn't work as she couldn't be the Night 2 dream.:confused:
EDIT:x'd with Cab.

Nerwen

01-25-2013, 09:31 PM

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.
It is indeed. I'm going to do my own analysis, and I think it would be interesting for everyone to give their thoughts on why he might have been killed.

Coppermirror

01-25-2013, 09:40 PM

I will also do an analysis. Might take me a while, though. I'm going off to eat now.

Brinniel

01-25-2013, 09:47 PM

Okay, I'm actually really surprised they chose to kill Volo. I thought he was looking quite suspicious from Day 1 (at least I was sort of on the right track). I wasn't the only one who suspected him, so I think it could've been possible for him to be a lynch candidate for toDay. Why not kill someone who is considered by many players to be on the innocent side based on the results of Day 1 instead, as I was guessing their first kill target would've been just that. Yes, one reason could be that they thought Volo was the seer. I'm not sure about that though; his posts don't really stand out as all that seerish to me. Another possibility is that the wizards were simply looking to confuse and misdirect us. I do wonder if a reason they chose not to kill a Pom voter is because a wizard is among them.

Coppermirror

01-25-2013, 09:58 PM

If it's a matter of misdirection rather than them going for Volo on Seer grounds, then it might be because there's something in Volo's posts which can send us on a wild goose chase, because they just want to cause general confusion, or because they really, really want us to forget about some line of reasoning that we were on yesterDay, and they thought killing Volo would work best at distracting us.

(And now I really will leave for a few hours.)

Inziladun

01-25-2013, 10:05 PM

Inziladun

01-25-2013, 10:10 PM

Morsul the Dark

01-25-2013, 10:21 PM

All this is possible, but what's the most likely? Seer-suspicion just seems to make the most sense, because he was fairly heavily suspected. If they wanted to mess with our heads, there had to have been other options.

Imagine the confusion if they had killed me:eek:

It's my wife's birthday so just a quick glance I'll be more active tomorrow but probably not too much.

Brinniel

01-25-2013, 10:24 PM

Which one would have stood out, though? Had anyone in particular said things about Pom that would seem to indicate suspicion for ill-defined reasons?
I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

If it's a matter of misdirection rather than them going for Volo on Seer grounds, then it might be because there's something in Volo's posts which can send us on a wild goose chase, because they just want to cause general confusion, or because they really, really want us to forget about some line of reasoning that we were on yesterDay, and they thought killing Volo would work best at distracting us.

(And now I really will leave for a few hours.)
If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.

Brinniel

01-25-2013, 10:41 PM

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious. I need to take a bit of a break, but I'll look more closely at yesterDay's events later.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 12:09 AM

Voloalysis

Day One

#3. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=679857&postcount=3)
Opening banter. Remarks such as "tasting you trolls to see who tastes like a Wizer. So who shall I lick first?" may have been an attempt to hint to the wolves.

It has been suggested (Nog #279, #281, McCaber #286) that it was actually "Seer"-hinting, or was taken as such by the wolves. Pretty thick wolves, is all I can say.:p

#55.
McCaber, your use of suspicious in post #29 felt somewhat exaggerated. Or was it all just observations on humorous exchanges? Or some as actual interpretations of suspicion?
Just a feeler.

#72. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=679945&postcount=72) Banter; case against Kath is "too harsh". Will consider her innocent "until further notice".
All right– that could have looked rather Seerish: making sure the village knows you haven't actually dreamed the person you're defending.

#108. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=679988&postcount=108)
Discusses Kath, Morsul, Gil and myself. A long post, but boils down to: "maybe they're sort of suspicious-ish, but also maybe sort-of not". With hindsight, this is just a cobbler who hasn't got a read on anyone yet, and wants to leave himself as much freedom of action as possible. I don't see why it would have rung any alarm bells for the wolves.

#126. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680006&postcount=126)
Post about Rikae. Finds (or claims to find) her somewhat suspicious, using the phrase: "now I'm clearly looking more closely at Rikae, so let's see what else there is". This could also have been taken as a Seer-hint.

#132. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680013&postcount=132)
Tally. Is "not sure" about me, Pom "feels more genuine", McCaber is "more on the naughty side".

#137.
Ok, Nerwen is the one I find the most suspicious of those who have votes and will vote for her to save McCaber if I can't agree with someone on a more suspicious character. Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

#139. Vote-post.
++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

All this shows us the back-to-front reasoning of a cobbler– by the end, after much wavering, he must in truth have decided I was the least likely wolf! I can't imagine any of these last posts would have attracted wolvish attention, except perhaps for the note at #137 on how he didn't feel confident there was a wolf in the voted lot, which like #72, could have been taken as code for "I haven't actually dreamed this person".

Not really very fruitful. May implicate Rikae. However– assuming Volo was the failed Night One kill– I'm surprised he'd look like the best option at this point. I mean, there are possible "Seer-hints" there, but they're also the kind of things anyone might say by chance, too. And meanwhile, there were the Pom-voters. [EDIT: Obviously I meant "the failed Night TWO kill". Duuuuhhh...]

Day Two

#205. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680128&postcount=205) Laments the missed kill and congratulates self on not having helped lynch Pom:"Cheers to the Insomniac and to those who spotted Pom (no thanks to me there...)!" Discusses the suspicion of Cop, with myself and Rikae as having laid the groundwork. Is non-committal about me, but states Rikae may have been "preparing a trap" and that "something here smells".

Hey. Guess he'd decided she was innocent, then.;)

#261. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680192&postcount=261)
Long list of "impressions" of other players. This could have been taken as a Seer's coded list, since nearly all say something like "no idea", "under the radar" or if they are more definite, contain a caveat of some kind. This is of course Volocobbler keeping the field open, but once again could have looked like a Seer's insurance against being posthumously misread.

The exceptions:
Boromir88, "Bore" - something doesn't fit, actually my impression is a bit like when we were Wolf partners ages ago.
(...)
Nerwen, "Nerve" - I've done quite a lot of rethinking about my attitude towards her yesterday, since it bugged me that I ended up voting her while not too sure about her guilt, the other candidates felt less suspicious. I admit, I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case.
(...)
Rikae, "Rick" - I'm growingly more wary with Rikae. Her actions seem like Pom^2. She's been influencing without answering for the responcibility.
The problem with this is of course that there are three names in this category and there could have only been two Seer-dreams.

#264. Vote-post.
Ok:

++Ozban

Morsul feels Innocent.
In the previous post, Volo had said of these two:
Morsul the Dark, "Mors" - I don't recall playing with him, but he seems genuine and I would feel surprised if he were a Wizer.
(...)
Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.
In other words, exactly the same kind of statement: "probably innocent but I don't really know". This should rule out the comment about Morsul "feeling innocent" being taken as a Seer-hint.

As you see, I am chiefly looking at this with regard to Volo's possible "Seerishness". As this is a large village and as the game has so far been going quite poorly for the wolves, it seems to me they wouldn't want to beat about the bush with their kills– and as Volo would have very likely ended up on the chopping block before long anyway, it also seems to me the wolves would need a really good reason for choosing him.

However, as you see the "evidence" is on the thin side– there are certainly things that could have looked Seerish, but would they have been enough? I'm not sure. It is possible that my assumption here is wrong, and that the wolves were more concerned with creating diversion, laying false trails etc, and/or that they were too worried about losing the kill to go for a better choice– this would especially hold if Volo was in fact the target both Nights. (It's been suggested he wasn't.)

That said, it seems to me both Rikae and Boro do merit some attention, particularly the former.

EDIT:X'd since Brinniel at #290. Edit2: correction.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 12:24 AM

Yes, you Rikae came forwards pretty soon to kind of answer my question about what did you mean by that post (that you thought earlier Oz was a seer-dreamt wolf but had changed your mind), but what you didn't answer - and what puzzles me the most - is why you thought that was such an important piece of infromation you'd need to post it even if it went over the DL (like it actually did). Especially as you had posted comments twenty minutes before the DL but then remained silent untill the last minute - only to make that statement.

No special reason, just that I didn't want any confusion about what I was thinking the next day if I ended up being killed.

But that doesn't matter, does it? Apparently I'm suspicious now because the wolves thought that Volo was a seer and he suspected me (did he? I didn't notice) - you'll find any reason to suspect me now that you've made up your mind to do so. Same old, same old.

Anyway, I haven't had much chance to analyze anything this evening and tomorrow I'm afraid I have to go to a funeral (no, that is not a hint of any kind, it's literal RL truth) - so, lynch me if you like, I guess. I'm innocent, but I'm not doing a very good job of wizard hunting at any rate.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 12:39 AM

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 12:53 AM

You know, I bet the wizards had plenty of time to discuss Volo's seerish sounding remarks and how they could spin them in their favor when they were choosing their kill.

The best thing for the village now is to know my role, although it will mean that Volo's cobblery and the wolves scheme will have been successful. But hey, there they are, tipping their hand, and there are plenty of innocents left to take care of them, right?

++Rikae
Actually, there are four players in danger of modfire toDay, so that's not really very helpful, Rikae. And if you're innocent and the intent was really to frame you– which I don't think anyone has ruled out– well, all right, but you can't expect us not to look into it, can you?

Rikae

01-26-2013, 01:00 AM

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

:D

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 01:23 AM

Rikae

01-26-2013, 01:27 AM

Yay!

Lynched by Poe's law.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 01:39 AM

A couple things on Morsul:
A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

This comment was one of the reasons people voted Morsul. Am I the only one who interpreted it as hypothetical from the get-go? I do think it got blown out of proportion and if Morsul is innocent, I wouldn't be surprised to see a wizard involved in raising suspicion on this comment.

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.
This comment I don't blame others for being suspicious; it is rather flimsy. But I'm still not sure if it's necessarily wizard behavior.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 01:52 AM

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 01:57 AM

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 02:02 AM

Took a nap and this Day 2 stuff is getting tedious to go through. Will post the analysis on everyone I have, keep in mind it is mostly with the Day 1 action in mind, with some of the Day 2 discussion added in:

Cop:

Makes a vote for me that several pointed out being suspicious over. Mostly it seemed like a safe throwaway vote for Day 1 and reasoned purely as an unexplained gut-feeling. Nog doesn’t understand where the idea came from that Cop’s vote wasn’t random, but that came from Cop herself who in #58 said it was either cast a vote for me, a random vote, or abstain from voting, so she decided the first option. It had the look of a random vote but Cop was quite clear not to interpret it as random, but as having a bad gut-feeling. I still don’t like the vote, but it could just be revengeful feelings and you have to consider Pom’s vote Day 1.

Pom would have known there was significant suspicion building against Cop, especially after that string of post #92-94, all pointing out unease about Cop. Pom’s vote was opportunistic, which means she probably wasn’t trying to bus one of her mates. Pom’s post after seeing McCaber’s vote, looks like a wizard who tried to have it both ways. Someone who herself was jumping at the opportunistic lynch, but also trying to make herself look innocent by advising us to watch the Cop voters. Pom’s reaction just doesn’t fit with the interpretation of Cop also being a wizard.

Gil:

Not much more to add than what I already said before, looks jumpy about anything he says seems to be getting turned on him. But agree with sally in #96, don’t see why a Gilwizer would “lay it on so thick” with the victim act.

Inzil:

Nothing looks remotely off about Zil, and I don’t say this to mean he looks too clean, but someone who normally has a good grasp on Zil’s alignment. As a baddie Zil is the master of double-talk and non-committal. Post 23 looks particularly innocent when he responds to Morsul that Pom’s statement (“And as little information as trolling around gives us, saying nothing gives us even less.”) was sensible enough but looked like a generic Day 1 comment. Zil’s bussed packmates before, but I have a hard time seeing he’d put attention on a Pomwizer and bus her Day 1.

Kath:

Nothing of note, other than we can say Morsul seeing a cobbler-hint was indeed a grasp at straws.

Lottie:

Looks about as good as Zil. The differences being Late in Day 1 she’s left her options open. In #121 states she feels good about Greenie, Rikae and Bane, her only listed suspect is Pom. I say it leaves her options open because none of the ones she feels as innocent in 121 were in danger of being lynched. Then in #131 says she disagrees with the “waves of suspicion” against Gil. Copper, and McCaber, and thus votes Pom. Since Lottie had made no statement about those 3 earlier, she had her options open, and could have been a mate bussing Pom since she previously stated suspicions against Pom.

The question remains if Lottie’s a wizard, she clearly left her options open, saw there were 3 other choices, so why state dislike for the waves of suspicion that happened against Gil, Copper, and McCaber, why push Pom to the lynch at all? There was no need for a wizard in Lottie’s situation to vote for a packmate there.

McCaber:

The stand out point seems to be Day 1 he voted a few hours before the DL but still stayed around for the discussion. This caused some exchanges between him, Greenie, and Nog.

#116 McCaber explains his reasons:

I had suspicions and didn't feel like waiting until the last 10 minutes of the Night to get them hashed out. I don't like last-minute surprises.

I forgot to point this out earlier, but Greenie’s response to this does not look good to me:

Fair enough - although unless I'm mistaken, it's still over an hour until deadline. For myself, I'm seldom so sure on Day 1 that I'd feel ready to make a decision with that long still to go (provided that I was around until DL, anyway), especially since quite a lot tends to happen during the last two hours.

She says “fair enough” which I take to be an acceptance of “to each their own, I do this differently but OK.” Despite seemingly accepting McCaber’s explanation, she still puts a negative interpretation that it is still over an hour until the DL, and she wouldn’t make a decision that early if she was around until the DL. If Greenie’s doesn’t look good, Nog’s just looks bad:

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

Granted I don’t vote as early as McCaber before the DL if I know I’m staying around, but I have done the same. If I’m sure my opinion isn’t going to change I don’t see a point in holding it for a last minute fury at the DL simply because I will still be around until the DL. I try more to give a person a chance to respond to suspicions if they’ve left for the day, but if I’m sure nothing will look more suspicious than someone making a bad-looking Day 1 vote why bother holding it to the end? Nogrod tries to cast it as suspicious behavior, which I don't understand why it is suspicious?

Morsul:

What I said here -

Morsul's is less buthersom, cuz we see a clear line of logic...er logical amongst troll herds...mmm herds need shepp'erds shepp'erds are some fine dining. Umm oh, Morsul's vote. I wouldn't vote for Kath based on his reasons, but his early vote dispalys his mind and what he's thinking clear enough. It's reasonin' we can track, if you follow me, and not gut-feelings.
…
Boils down to we know what Morsul's thinking with his early vote. Can't tell what Cop is.

Nerwen:

Aggressively pursues Gil, but her reasons are understandable. Gil gave her a 2nd vote early on for a bad reason. Doesn’t vote, a staple of Nerwen except the infamously cursed game where she voted Day 1 and it seemed a mass illness spread through the entire village.

Nogrod:

Does chalk up his non-committal attitude for most of the day as having very little time, ok I can see that. More of a red flag though is what I stated in the McCaber analysis…trying to frame the behavior that voting early while still being around after the vote is suspicious, that’s really a stretch and I don’t see why it should be interpreted as suspicious, just McCaber having a different approach. Now, we also know his vote for McCaber and strange “So it is Pom” was not made by the cobbler. Given that many seem to be of the opinion “don’t worry about the cobbler, get the wizards, I wouldn’t put it past a wizard-Nogrod to actually look like the cobbler, knowing there would be reluctance to voting for someone appearing to be a cobbler. As it stands though, Nog can no longer go through with that plan, if indeed he is a wizard acting cobbler. (Needs to check Nog's Day 2 posts to see if this "act like the cobbler because people are generally less gun-ho about lynching the cobbler" theory holds water).

Rikae:

Leaning innocent, later in the Day involved in much of the action. States unease about Cop’s recap of the banter, but also quick to point out doesn’t like Pom and McCaber’s jump at voting for Cop. #119 and #120 are interesting, she says Greenie is being too agreeable for a troll, but recanted in 120 because Greenie brings up points against McCaber. Now, in Day 2 McCaber says it seems Rikae was turning the focus away from Pom and onto him, yet as I said earlier, Greenie had been doing the same thing. Greenie is then quick to confirm this is a shrewd point in McCaber’s favor.

sally:

Lots of banter, but her end of the day actions are as green as can be. Looks like a wise sally voting wisely.

Shasta:

The clinching vote for Pom, Shasta will bus teammates if it makes him look better, but a wizard-Shasta at this point had no need to make himself look particularly good. He wasn’t going to get lynched, no one stated suspicions against him. He’s not one to just backstab a mate when there was no immediate need to make himself look innocent.

Volo:

He’s all over the place with McCaber (add now knowing he’s the cobbler, it makes more sense) from testing him in #55, saying in #132 McCaber is more on the “naughty side” and then suddenly #137 votes Nerwen to now “save McCaber.”

Looking at the first several posts today...it needs to be said Volo is the cobbler, and while it is only logical he was killed because the wizards thought he was the seer, it doesn’t change the fact that Volo was making statements to confuse, mislead, and go around in circles. So, while it’s reasonable to speculate “wizards were gunning for the seer,” Volo’s posts were designed entirely with the intent to confuse us, therefore what he actually said needs to be looked at with a grain of salt, not stressed that it somehow contains traceable info because the wizards possibly thought he was the seer.

Also, I've so far left out my Ozban analysis, because considering this drive for people to find seer hints in Volo's posting. The fact remains Ozban was a lynched ordo. His conclusions may be wrong, but it's the intent behind his posting and reason we can now trust as innocent. We know he was posting with innocent intentions...Volo wasn't. Period. I want to go through all of Ozban's posts to see if any conclusions can be made, there is value to knowing we can trust Ozban's intentions behind his posts. Can't trust Volo's.

Edit: crossed with Rikae, Nerwen, Brinn several times...umm what is going on?

McCaber

01-26-2013, 02:11 AM

Huh. As much as I feel Rikae delenda est, I think this sort of behavior we see from her is not what a wolf Rikae would be doing in that situation. And this leaves me rather conflicted.

I guess today's vote won't be so easy as yesterdays was for me. I will need to look further.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 03:14 AM

Before this goes any further: I do know all about Rikae's history of self-voting, hence my reply to her. When, however, she confessed– or as it may be, "confessed"– I took it to mean she was a wolf who had initially meant to fight it out, but on closer reading had decided there was too much against her, and too much risk of her comrades implicating themselves by trying to save her.

As I said: if she's innocent it was certainly very unhelpful of her at this point.

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 03:16 AM

First off - so sorry for not voting yesterDay! It's embarrassing, really; I thought I'd vote after taking a shower, then when I got back I somehow thought I had already voted and went to bed. :o Just for the record, though, my vote would have been for Morsul or McCaber, probably Morsul since he seemed more likely to get lynched. (If I'm not mistaken, he would have been if I had not forgotten to vote. Bah.)

McCaber being the first ... may have felt like a safe vote but then would Pom have followed that vote up if McCaber were a wolf? But that phrase 'suspicion-mongering' from McCaber I still don't like.The thing is, Pom and McCaber cross-posted I believe, so she didn't think she was following anyone up.

I still think Volo's vote the least suspicious among he, Nog and Boro. Now he has two votes, one of them Gil. Interestingly, Gil also was the second vote for Nerwen YesterNight. As part of his reasoning for voting Volo, he cites the latter's "bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee". When he himself voted for Nerwen?Interesting observation. Makes my brain hurt, though.

This is why she remains “somewhat suspicious of McCaber”…(My note of interest here: Considering Greenie voted for McCaber and gave 3 reasons for it, albeit Day 1, and one of those a “gut-feeling” it still had the appearance of about as reasoned as a vote as one might expect for Day 1. I’m not sure what changed…I would think she would still remain highly suspicious about the fact that McCaber made an opportunistic looking vote and not attempt to slowly back away from the suspicion if it were earnest suspicions. This does raise the first big wizardly flags, because after trying to steer the focus onto McCaber the previous Day, given that Pomwizer was lynched, it seems Greenie wants to now drop the case). She brings up we may be over interpreting Pom’s peculiar statement, which makes it seem like she doesn’t want anyone going back to look at her posts trying to put focus onto McCaber’s vote and not Pom’s. Too bad, I have.

Definitely suspicious of Greenie’s actions. In #222 Greenie makes a sudden turn to feeling good about McCaber saying he made a "shrewd point" that Rikae was trying to turn focus on him and away from Pom. When interestly enough, Greenie was doing the same, she gave reasoned defenses for Pom’s post in #110, while also putting the focus on McCaber’s opportunistic looking vote.I do still suspect McCaber. I just don't want to pursue it blindly; I've done that before, usually on innocents. I suspect him, but at the same time he makes points I agree with, which leaves me confused. I don't know anything, so I get second thoughts about every idea I have. Simple as that.

As for why I pursued him instead of Pom - he seemed to me the more suspicious of the two, mainly because I had also other reasons to suspect him than just the vote. I'm not sure it's justified to say I defended Pom, though. I just said it was possible her "Keep an eye on the Cop voters" was a joke, and that I found McCaber more suspicious than her.

He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).As for this, I've no idea what this means.
Nog brings up an interesting theory about the Wizers having thought Volo was the Seer; I agree that it's the only way the Volo kill makes any sense. He seemed a likely lynchee for toDay, as Cop pointed out, and created a lot of confusion, too (which we now know he did on purpose).

Confused by this, Nog That first paragraph seems to be describing a scenario of Rikae as the supposed Night 1 dream- then you say it wouldn't work as she couldn't be the Night 2 dream.I wondered about the same. Nog, can you clarify?

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.That is actually a very clever point; almost too clever. It's true that the Wizers might want to be rid of players so uniformly considered innocent, but then again, they'd probably want to get rid of the Seer first. (It's also possible they tried one of the two on Night 2 and the ranger blocked it.) Something about this post rubs me the wrong way though; it could be something planned overNight, a strategy to incriminate Sally and Shasta by keeping them alive, and Brinn started it off a bit eagerly? I simply don't know, but it got me thinking for sure.

And now Rikae went and self-voted and called herself a wolf. :rolleyes: Really not very helpful if she's innocent. Then again, also not helpful if she's a Wizer, so I'm mostly confused.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, who makes sense.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 03:48 AM

Originally Posted by Nog
He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).
As for this, I've no idea what this means.
I think it means: "If the wolves did kill Volo as a suspected Seer, it follows that some of his statements about guilt/innocence must be correct, else some other player who did get it right would have looked like a better candidate. The only alternative is that everyone else has been wrong too."

But hey, he's your father...:p

Morsul the Dark

01-26-2013, 06:40 AM

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

But I'll start looking for the other two wizards and....

++Rikae

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 06:54 AM

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.

Well, we know one of them was innocent. About Morsul, I would have thought him a more likely Traitor than Volo, but that's out the window now.

Actually, there are four players in danger of modfire toDay, so that's not really very helpful, Rikae. And if you're innocent and the intent was really to frame you– which I don't think anyone has ruled out– well, all right, but you can't expect us not to look into it, can you?

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.

x/d with Morsul- C'mon. Really? :rolleyes:

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 06:56 AM

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

Hm. That's actually possible, but if so, she'd better hope she's right.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 07:08 AM

The Ozwagon
Important note: many quotes are from much longer posts, often ones in which a large number of other players are mentioned.

#163
This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

#187
Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

#196. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680117&postcount=196) Nerwen votes Nogrod.

#200. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680123&postcount=200) Ozban votes Morsul.

#210. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680133&postcount=210)
McCaber votes Rikae

#213. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680136&postcount=213)
Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at ##187. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680105&postcount=187)) Adds "I'm still wary of Oz, but I'd like to hear more from him."

#202
Right now I feel the worst about Morsul, Nog, and Cab. I doubt all three are evil, though. Morsul and Cab would be a weird pair, as would Cab and Nog. And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

#203 (marked "x'd with Greenie")
Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

#204. Greenie quotes #203, #204, adds eyeroll.

#206
In all seriousness, though, I'm not sure what to think of Ozban's analysis of Morsul. While I agree with pretty much every point he makes, he seems to make the points with an assumption that Morsul is evil. It's as if he has decided the outcome already before doing the analysis. Then again, I've seen innocents get fixated in that way too, so I don't know.

#207.
Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. (...) Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

#208.
Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

#213. Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at #187 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680105&postcount=187).)

#216 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680139&postcount=216). Lottie votes Morsul (2)

#220 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680143&postcount=220). Gil votes Volo

#228.Rikae votes Ozban
What is the point of Oz's #142, I wonder? Points out who is tied (Cab, Cop, Nerve and Pom) and " I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet". Well, yeah. Something seems fishy here. It's like he's trying to draw someone's attention to the need for a certain vote.

Now, today, Oz comes in with a case against Morsul based entirely on yesterday's posts. Almost as if he, oh, wrote it during the night, not thinking that the night's events, or today's posts, would give him any new information.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oz
I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts.
Then he votes - a fairly safe vote if I'm not mistaken.

#229.
And then there's Ozban, whom I somehow seem to have forgotten about almost entirely until now. Epic failure on my part, how could I do that...

#230
Ozban --> McCaber 3 (opportunistic vote and not contributing much
(...)
Ozban posted a very useless 'suspicion' list. I mean, there were plenty of unhelpful recapping posts where all they showed were literally shortened version of what was said with no analysis so this at least was better, but it just went 'everyone is suspicious'. Non-committal. Does come out with own thoughts later.

#231. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680158&postcount=231)
Copper posts analysis of Ozban, finding him to be excessively cagey and his votes to be "sudden". Is considering voting him, along with Volo and Morsul.

#235.
I could vote for Ozban too though. The Morsul vote toNight looks rather fabricated. Coupled with his putting Cab in the lead yesterNight doesn't help him look any better.

#237. Zil votes Ozban (2)
After quick deliberation, Gil may be acting too careless for a Wizard. So...

++Ozban

and hope for the best.

#239. Kath votes Morsul (3)

#240. Morsul votes Ozban (3) (x'd since Zil at #237.)
++ Ozban

His vote for me seems to be picking up on other people's suspicion(Which I don't really get but can accept) Seems a little forced and coming from a conclusion first evidence later mentality. Wife's using computer so won't be back before DL.

#241. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680169&postcount=241)
Copper votes Ozban (4) (Does not give reason in this post, but see #231 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680158&postcount=231). Vote is a tiebreaker.)

#242.
I can understand the concern about Oz, but I honestly don't have the time to go back and look at all of his posts, so I'll have to ignore him for the moment.

And doubleposting, but: Cop, why Oz over Morsul? Give us something to gnaw on.

#248.
Sally, Oz doesn't have that many posts to look at. For your convenience:

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/search.php?searchid=3767928

#251. (answering Rikae.)
I think that Morsul's turn of phrase might well be something an innocent could say. Morsul doesn't word things extremely carefully and can be a bit sloppy. Aside from that remark, there are things which worry me, but I'm not confident enough in those to vote for him.

The real decision was Ozban over Volo, and to be honest I'm not at all sure I've made the right choice, given the amount of strange things Volo said. The reason I went for Ozban is because of the quick vote placement with no warning, few posts, and because it's likely that a wizard would attack another candidate rather than defend a fellow wizard.

#252.
Oz seems a bit suspicious (I looked at a few posts form late D1 and some of toDay), but how much of it is not being used to this game and how much genuine suspiciousness?

#254.
Of the ones with votes (and possible meaningful votes for us two) I might say Oz is a better pick than Morsul or Volo. But none seems especially innocent or suspicious either for me.

#256.
I don't have a problem with voting Oz, really, but Volo and Morsul are still highly suspicious for me.

Assuming it is just us, Volo would be a ridiculous move, as we'd only tie him with Oz and Oz would still die. Thus, unless someone else shows up, our options seem to be Oz and Morsul.

#258.
I tired to look also at who had voted for whom (so whether someone's votes were given by shadier or more trustworthy people in this game on my mind) - and only found both main "camps" (Morsul voters and Oz voters) looking too suspicious...

#260.
I really feel like an Oz vote from me would not be well-informed, at least enough to be comfortable. Morsul made that arguable slip about McCaber and then revenge voted Oz when he was suddenly in the lead. I'd say that's pretty shifty.

#261.
Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.

#262.
So which one would you suggest: Oz or Morsul?

I could go with either (there's reason for both picks).

Oz is a relative newcomer and might earn a go for it but Morsul could be just his normal...

#263.
Oooo! Also, if Morsul is a wizard, his choosing to vote Oz over Volo would make the third lad look very bad as well.

#264. Volo votes Ozban (5) The kill-vote.

#265. Nog votes Morsul (4)

#266. Sally votes Morsul (5) (x'd with Nog and Volo's votes.)

#268. (x'd since #263) Part of my reason for voting for Oz has evaporated (part I didn't mention) but I still see reason to vote for him, at least more so than Morsul.

Sally (#260 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680191&postcount=260)) calls Morsul's vote for Ozban "revenge", but in more practical term he was likely voting to save himself- which tells us nothing either way. Of the other voters, Cop is (to use her own expression) very "sudden"– 2 posts earlier she had forgotten all about him– while Rikae did a good deal to encourage suspicion against Ozban early on then– in her own words– "backpedalled".

Now, having tested out as Legolas on one of those personality quizzes, it should surprise nobody when I point out that the only other unknown in any danger whatever was Morsul. Thus, the Oz-votes are highly significant if he is, in fact, a wolf– if not, not, as the wolves wouldn't need to be very active in steering the lynch otherwise.

EDIT:X'd with two Zils.; saw Morsul's vote just before posting.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 07:13 AM

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.
I have already explained why I voted her– here: #309. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680279&postcount=309) It may have been precipitous, but it was honest.

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 08:29 AM

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one. The only way they could be sure of Rikae not being the Purseholder would be if Rikae was one of them, in which case voting for her would seem, at least to me, a seriously bad move. There is still the possibility of Rikae being a wolf and just not in cahoots with Morsul, but I, like Brinn, originally read her "confession" as sarcasm. An overreaction, yes, but RL stress is RL stress (hugs to Rikae, hope you're all right).

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 08:39 AM

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one.

True, the Purseholder may have the number of one of them, but the odds are still against it. A Morzard might have just taken the gamble that she's wrong.

Then again, I do think that Morsul's stated reason for voting Rikae seems better than Nerwen's.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 08:51 AM

I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold. Volo did a good job, basically. The trouble is, Nog goes on these crusades as an innocent, and he also is good enough to imitate them as a baddie, so I can't even say anything about him.
I don't feel like I can say anything about Nerwen, either. Could have honestly taken my post literally, could have jumped at the chance to make a very safe vote. Shouldn't have given her that chance. :confused: I also had to go check the rules again and see votes are not retractable, so I've created even more of a mess.

At any rate, I have difficulty seeing why the "Volo was a suspected seer" thing is taken for granted so. Greenie says it's the only explanation that makes sense, which is way out there: as far as I'm concerned, Volo was flying under the radar pretty well until now and his one trail was a convenient one for the wolves. He creates confusion, but so does Gil, so does Kath (really, the wizard of OZ and you aren't a cobbler, Kath?), and if the remaining wolves aren't under much pressure they wouldn't be too worried about that.

Also: not the purseholder, just an ordo.

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 09:05 AM

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

It rests with the belief "I'm innocent, but I'm too much of a distraction so best to just lynch me and be done with it." I'm the same way in that my basic principles as an ordo are Don't do the wizards' job and lynch your gifteds. Be lynch fodder if I must because in the grand scheme of things an ordo lynch isn't nearly as devastating as a gifted death.

1. It would show the non-wizards I had innocent motivations and therefor possibly lead to the real bad folks.

2. Keeps the gifteds alive longer, which is the true bane of any pack.

Rikae is trying to spare/protect someone or another...

Whether that be spare the innocents from a distraction when she's too frustrated and doesn't have the time to defend herself. Feeling that as long as she's still alive she would be a distraction. I don't think a hunter-Rikae would do this, given the odds, I think she would fight for her innocence harder, not throw it in simply after Nog and Nerwen are looking at wizards suspected Volo as the seer theory.

Or she is indeed a wizard and wants to quickly stop her 2 other mates from trying to save her. To try to give them a restart considering how badly their night kills have turned out. It puts those two in a bigger uphill battle, but considering they still don't have a gifted, I would expect at least an attempt fake reveal (if Rikae was a wizard) to draw out one of them and make it easier on the other two if she's going sacrificial.

Edit: crossed with Rikae

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 09:07 AM

As always tends to happen, the further the game progresses, the less sure I am about anyone. :rolleyes: Anyhow -

Bane - I hope he shows up.

Boro - Looks bad. I'd prefer not to elaborate just yet.

Brinniel - Hm. I'd love a second look; she is somehow under my radar even though I think I've agreed or disagreed with a lot of what she's said (ie. she hasn't slipped by unnoticed).

Cop - Leaning innocent; I still don't think Pom would have voted for a fellow who was being suspected by quite a few others.

Gil - Can't say if his overdoing of his martyr act points more to innocence or to guilt, but I do remember something he said that struck me as a point a Wizer wouldn't make. Can't quote that sadly since I've no idea what and where it was! :rolleyes:

Inziladun - As unreadable to me as ever and, consequently, someone I'd like a closer look at. He was a Pom-voter, though (the first, right?) which makes him look a little better.

Kath - Seems like a genuine, sharp, helpful Kath. Nothing that stood out as suspicious.

Loslote - Her Pom vote makes me lean innocent on her, and she's made some really sharp observations I'm not sure a Wizer would point out. Leaning good.

McCaber - Still leaning suspicious on this chap, but I'd like to reread him to make sure I'm not just getting fixated on a Day 1 idea.

Morsul - Gah. I found him really suspicious yesterDay, but toDay I'm no longer sure because his reaction to Rikae's self-vote looks very un-Wizer-like.

Nerwen - Her quick jump on Rikae's self-vote was odd, but I'm not sure a Wizard would do that. An easy vote, in a certain way, but also risky if Rikae was the Purseholder. Also, if the Wizers killed Volo because they thought he was the Seer, it makes Nerwen look pretty good. (Rikae: I don't know, I just see no other point for the Wizards killing Volo. Quite a few people suspected him and he was creating almost as much confusion alive as he does dead. So yes, I think they would have been bound to have had better options. Then again, them taking Volo for a Seer doesn't fit every piece of the puzzle either, so I don't know.)

Nogrod - Believe it or not, but I'm actually inclined to find him more innocent than not (unless the Volo kill was made to mess with our heads and incriminate Rikae, in which case Nog is an evil mastermind).

Rikae - Leaning towards finding her innocent at the moment; quite certainly not going to vote for her.

Sally - Looks pretty good for her Pom-vote, and has seemed innocentish otherwise too - not as nervous and jumpy as the average Salzard. (Then again, if she is a Wizard, she doesn't have much to be jumpy about given how everyone considers her innocent..)

Shasta - Come back, we miss you! :(

EDIT: x-ed with Boro

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 09:08 AM

Volo as "Seer"

Day 1

#3 - his tasting banter could be interpreted as Seer-ish. Interestingly, in retrospect his last line there looks as if it could be him leaving a Cobbler-hint.
#72 - defends Kath and says "currently no other interpretation but troll feels based enough to me". It's quite emphasised, so could easily be taken as evidence left by a Seer if Kath is innocent.
#126 - questions how genuine Rikae is in response to Brin's opinion. Says "Ok, now I'm clearly looking more closely at Rikae"...and that there's "still no special genuine vibe" there. If Rikae is a wolf, the wolves might well have been worried about this post.
#132 - unsure about Nerwen, thinks Pom feels more genuine, and McCaber more naughty.
#137 - now wants to save McCaber and is willing to vote Nerwen to do it. This could be suspicious to wizzards if Nerwen is a wizzard, possibly, but the defence of McCaber probably wouldn't.
#139 - votes Nerwen, and makes bandwagon statements.
#143 - corrects some mistakes, and says that I didn't ring any alarm bells with him.

In conclusion, if Day 1 contains anything that worried them, they might have assumed that he was the Seer based on:
- defence of Kath (in which case she's innocent)
- suspicion of Rikae (in which case she's a wizzard)
- defence of McCaber (in which case he's innocent)
- vote and reasoning for voting Nerwen (in which case she's a wizzard)
- possibly, his opinion of me in #143

Now to Day 2 to check if any of those become more likely or there is anything new. They might have attempted to kill him the first Day and been blocked by the Insomniac Troll, or might not.

Day 2

#205 - mild suspicion against me, notes Nerwen bringing attention to McCaber but says it is nothing incriminating and later says that Nerwen remains ambiguous. He continues fairly enthusiastically with suspicions about Rikae, specifically talking about how she might have strategically encouraged suspicion against me.

So far he seems to be continuing the Rikae suspicions just as on Day 1. This doesn't look great for Rikae so far, but there's still more to read about. Going by the info up to #205, there's a possibility that he could have been killed to encourage a Rikae lynch...but then, wouldn't they have killed Rikae overNight if that's what they wanted? Volo was under extreme suspicion and not a bad prediction to be lynched toDay. But if Rikae is a wizzard and they thought Volo had dreamt of her, they would have little choice but to kill Volo ASAP even if it might implicate her.

Now for #261 and Volo's big suspicions list.

He doesn't have enough info on: Shasta, Sally.
Considers some degree of innocent, however mild: Greenie, Bane, Kath (although thinks a possible Cobbler), Morsul.
Unclear statement on: Brin, Inzil, Loslote.

Boro - thinks something doesn't fit and he resembles wolf-Boro.
Coppermirror - thinks that Pom might have genuinely tried to save me, thus making me more suspicious, and that Pom thought her vote was a safe one for her to make.
Gil - thinks he resembles his wolf-self, and that Boro and Sally defended him strongly. Ends up unsure and giving Gil benefit of doubt.
McCaber - has had some thoughts about but currently thinks he doesn't ring alarm bells. This could be seen as in line with the previous Day.
Morsul - thinks is genuine and unlikely to be a wizer.
Nerwen - waffles about her a bit. Seems to be backtracking overall, but "I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case" makes it sound odd.
Nogrod - is slightly wary of him.
Ozban - "I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness."
Rikae - "growing more wary" of her, thinking of as Pom 2.

#264 - votes Ozban as Morsul "feels innocent".

Conclusions: the most obvious thread there is suspicion of Rikae. They might have thought that Rikae was the first dream, possibly the second. But on Day 1, there were also two people whom he seemed to defend: Kath and McCaber. (I could say me too, but he wavered a bit oddly about me on Day 2 despite continuing to use Rikae's suspicions of me as evidence against her.) It's by no means conclusive but it does merit a look at Rikae, especially to check on how she reacts to these accusations.

So on Day 2, how does he treat Kath and McCaber? More neutrally, but still not with much suspicion. His line about McCaber could possibly be interpreted as dreaming of him the previous Night.

He doesn't seem to think Ozban is looking guilty, but votes for him anyway to save Morsul, whom he thinks is innocent. If Morsul really is innocent, and Volo was also correct about one of his earlier opinions (probably on Kath, McCaber or Rikae) then he might be interpreted as having dreamed of him.

It's most likely that they thought he was the Seer, but the possibility of it being a confusion tactic still remains. As for whether killing Volo might save anyone, the only one that comes to mind is Morsul. At the end of yesterDay, Sally and Nog appeared to be theorising about a Morsul-Volo wizard pack, given Volo's defence of Morsul. If Morsul is a wizer, killing Volo would be a quick way to knock that line of thought on the head. Even so...it's hard to guess how much danger the wizers would have felt in from Sally and Nog's discussion.

Since I was writing this up, I deliberately didn't look too carefully at other people's analysis of Volo, so I'll go ahead and look at those posts now.

Edit: cross-posted with an unknown but large amount of posts. Last one I'd read was #293. Also edited for formatting.

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 09:16 AM

Boro - Looks bad. I'd prefer not to elaborate just yet.

That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 09:16 AM

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 09:36 AM

I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold.

And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 09:47 AM

Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection.
…
Volo had been under such a lot of suspicion yesterDay. I'd have expected them to leave him in as a potential lynch-ee toDay.
Aka. they thought it was more important for them to kill him than let him stay as a potential lynchee. So the idea they thought him the seer sounds most probable. And that’s why I concentrated on that aspect in the early hours of the Day.

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.
I don’t think Volo’s first post would have been what made the case for Volo to be picked as it would have been outrageously clumsy from the real seer. So I’m quite drawn to a conclusion there was something in his suspicions that over-rode the Wizards’ possible wariness about that first post (which still could have been the first reason they got the idea about Volo being the seer).

Nerwen: what I meant with the problem of two dreams on N2 was exactly that: that it would have been impossible for the seer to dream both you and Rikae on the same Night – and if one was to think the seer had dreamt of you both it looked more probable it was N2 than N1 (Volo changed his view on you Nerwen considerably after N2 but also went after Rikae much more strongly on D2 – the problem being that he wasn’t that forthcoming on D1 with Rikae). But my conclusions on that whole problem anyway was that I think of you Nerwen as more likely innocent and Rikae more likely a Wizard based on what the Wizards could have thought about you two in relation to Volo (if I didn’t make that clear enough).

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.
Exactly my thoughts (like I said already yesterDay). It felt like the wolves were leaning back and seeing the voting going the way they were comfortable with.

Apparently I'm suspicious now because the wolves thought that Volo was a seer and he suspected me (did he? I didn't notice) - you'll find any reason to suspect me now that you've made up your mind to do so. Same old, same old.
Well no. Or a partial ”yes” for the first sentence (not a total acceptance as I’m not sure whether the Wizards thought of Volo as the seer – but it seems thus far the likeliest explanation). But other than that, I have not made up my mind (even if it’s close) – and I have no wish to find out reasons to help lynching a certain person just because… (and talking about you especially, well actually it would be very nice to play with you for a long time). But I wish to get the Wizards lynched, whoever they are, and thus far the scenario where they killed Volo because they thoguht him the seer looks the most believable – and the only person it seems to point seems to be you.

But yes, maybe I have not considered all the things or have missed something. I do look forwards to be corrected – and will change my mind immediately when shown why what I think is not plausible.

Rikae… Noooooooo!!!!
Not again, please. (referring to her self-vote, that is)

Okay. I need to go back preparing the dinner for us – and I’m seriously lagging behind (only gotten to where Rikae voted herself) so forgive me if I have been talkng about things that have been somehow radically changed by this time. Back later…

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 10:21 AM

As usual, not quoting everything as that would be insane. My comments in italics

DAY 1

Frustration with banter

Pom, McCaber, and Morsul get points for the effort of trying to post substance; hates Day 1s because they are the easiest for a wolf to hide in; says she doesn't object to banter in general but that it's a problem if it gets out of hand

So far I'm feeling good about Rikae. She seems the most genuine at least. Pom seems okay as well, for now.

I don't like Copper's vote because Boro has hardly said anything and I don't know how she can get a gut feeling about him based on those posts. I'd hold off on voting her toDay though, because I haven't played with Copper before and don't know her playing style.

Morsul votes Kath based on some weak cobbler suspicions. But wouldn't it be better to vote for a suspected wizard? But I'll let it pass, since in his defense there is so little to go on right now.

I don't like all of Sally's bantering, but then again it is Sally.

My vote toDay will be:

++Nerwen

While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far. By suspicious, I refer to excessive bantering combined with picking up on comments that she could later use as reasons for an easy lynch (like Morsul's comment on Kath). I realize it's weak reasoning, but there's really not much else to go on and I do generally tend to be pretty wary about Nerwen anyway.Not overly fond of this vote, but it was early on in the Day and quite little had happened, so I'm willing to give it a pass. Also, this makes me doubt that both Rikae and Brinn are wolves, as I don't think an otherwise careful Brinnard would cheerfully point to two of her three fellows as innocentish in a Day 1 post.

DAY 2

Comments on Nerwen's speculation of why Pom panicked after her vote; thinks the likeliest scenario is [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)

As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.Kind of obvious but makes sense.

Writes a list; I'm quoting it in full regardless of the length, sorry for that, but it seemed like the best choice.
Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Morsul: Voted for Kath. His vote was early when there was little substance, so I won't hold it against him. When coming to conclusions, I find his logic rather odd, but I think it's really just his playing style which tells us nothing of his role.

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

McCaber: Voted for Copper. His vote actually didn't stand out as very suspicious to me. But I can see why some might be suspicious because he could've been seen as a baddie trying to get away with an easy vote against someone who was already gathering some attention for her poor reasoning behind her vote. Plus, I agree he voted a bit premature. Due to that statement Pom made after his vote, I think I'm leaning toward him being more innocent than not.

Gil: Voted for Nerwen. Okay, his vote had poor reasoning behind it and I can understand why others find it and his defensive behavior following suspicious. But like Morsul, his playing style does have a habit of looking suspicious regardless of his role.

Inzil: Voted for Pom. His vote might've been the safest, were he a baddie. But again, I think it less likely that there were wolf-on-wolf votes at this stage. And anyway, his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious.

Nogrod: Voted for McCaber. His careful and non-committed suspicion of Pom is worrying. Based on his posts, it seemed to make more sense that he would vote for her. But then he votes for McCaber while at the same time agreeing that Pom was a good lynch choice. The only thing is that if he did believe the lynch had already been decided, I think it would be safer for a baddie to vote for a packmate. Unless an evil Nogrod truly thought another player would swoop in and vote McCaber and he could save Pom. While that was a possibility, Bane was the only non-voter around at the time, it looked like he was planning to vote Pom, which would've sealed the deal...all the more reason it'd be safer for a baddie to vote a packmate at that point. I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch.

Rikae: Voted for McCaber. Her reasoning behind her vote looks genuine to me. From her posts, I like that her opinions are formed by her own impressions. Meaning that she thinks for herself and her thoughts aren't at all influenced by others' opinions, which makes me feel good about her right now.

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur. A bit suspicious to me.

Boromir: Voted for Copper. His thought process leading up to his vote seems quite reasonable to me. So far, I don't see any reason to suspect him.

Copper: Voted for Boromir. Would Pom vote for a fellow mate? It's always possible, but I do doubt it. So she's looking more likely to be innocent to me.

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

Loslote: Voted for Pom. I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.

Bane: No vote. He was around less than ten minutes until deadline, then disappeared. Any reason why? His suspicion of Pom could speak in his favor, but then not actually following through with a vote does not. I'd like to hear from him.

Greenie: Voted for McCaber. I think she's the only McCaber voter who had some reservations about him from an earlier post (before his vote). Based on her reasoning and interactions with McCaber, her vote does look like an honest one to me. So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side.

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

Shasta: Voted for Pom. He hardly posted, but his vote which put our baddie in the lead makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent.What struck me was that she is being extremely careful, almost too diplomatic; there is a but in almost every paragraph. Might just be undecided ordo (I can symphatize with that!) but somehow the tone is measured rather than confused.

Says defensiveness isn't necessarily suspicious; forgot the cobbler when doing her list, agrees with the suggestion that Nog might be one.

Another list:
Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz This makes me feel better; not as noncommittal as the previous list.

Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.Again a lot of buts here.

Nog looks better; explains her change of opinion about Nerwen:I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.

Votes for Volo; still wary of Oz, but wants to hear more from him

DAY 3

Speculates about the Volo kill, doesn't really add anything new

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.I already speculated about this before; something rubs me the wrong way here, though at the same time it's a sensible point to make. Gah.
If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.This seems a bit weird - speculating long about Volo's death, then saying it might be wiser to talk about something else.

Wonders whether Morsul and Oz weren't both innocent since she doesn't find Morsul all that suspicious

Thinks Morsul's ”innocent Cab” -comment is likely hypothetical and if it really is, would not be surprised to find a Wizer among those who pursued it; thinks Morsul's point against Lottie was indeed flimsy but not necessarily Wizard-like

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).I agree with this, but it tells little about Brinn's alignment as long as we don't know Rikae's. I'd say that if Rikae is evil then Brinn looks bad too, but Rikae's innocence wouldn't tell us anything about Brinn. If that makes sense. Then again, that Day 1 post makes me think it unlikely that they are fellows, so I don't know what to think. Helpful, I know.

CONCLUSIONS?

What stood out to me was that Brinn is playing really careful. It could go either way - a Wizard playing it safe by being diplomatic and leaving both ends open, so to speak, or an innocent who sees something for and against each argument and thus has a hard time being of any opinion. Oh my. That latter option sounds like what I'm doing in this particular post, actually! :rolleyes: Anyhow, I'm not sure this analysis helped me form an opinion on Brinn's alignment, but at least I have an idea what she's said and done, which can be counted as progress.

Sorry. Not my shrewdest day toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Brinn, Nerwen, and Nog

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 10:29 AM

That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.

Morsul the Dark

01-26-2013, 10:36 AM

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 10:36 AM

I'd really love a reread of McCaber (sorry for the lack of bolding, 'Downs or my laptop or both are messing up), will hopefully do that at some point. Dinner now, back later.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 10:50 AM

And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.

Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 10:52 AM

"No trail" - or better yet, a false trail.

The only thing is, would Nog and/or Cop and/or Nerwen wizard be that obvious? Once I'm lynched, they're under scrutiny. Or won't they? Am I crazy? Does everyone really believe that every wolf-kill is of a suspected seer? Maybe I really know nothing about this game after all these years...

Rikae

01-26-2013, 10:54 AM

Rikae

01-26-2013, 11:07 AM

Well, I'm off. Guess I won't be posting again, so once you have my role, please take a good look at these people who are so certain Volo was thought a seer, who behaved as though it was unquestionable etc. once it is clear that that isn't what they did at all.

Since I'm the only one in position to know that at this point, I can say what it was instead - almost certainly a framing attempt, and Copper's attempt to look like she's pushing the seer theory independently looks very bad to me. I think perhaps the wizards suspected him as the cobbler, even, and took the package he gift-wrapped for them. Of course wolves like to frame innocents and control the next day's lynch. Of course they do. Any experienced player knows that, and Nerwen is experienced. Of course they also go for seers when they think they spot one, but to behave as though this is the only way they choose kills is absurd.

Thanks, Greenie & Morsul for the condolences.

See you in the postgame discussion, everyone. Get smarter, please. :rolleyes:

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 11:08 AM

You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.

I'll be waiting. I would just think you would know me well enough by now to know it's disingenuous to cast vague suspicions and leave a veiled hint you have good reasons but don't want to say them yet. That is you are clearly trying to project you know something about me, but have now twice said you don't want to right now.

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 11:09 AM

Annoyed and stressed I am. Ragequit I did. The fact that people fail to see my sarcasm and fail to see how utterly ridiculous this certainty about Volo is has really killed my desire to be helpful all the more.

What certainty about Volo? You mean the way that several people think the obvious or most likely possibility is that he was killed as a potential Seer candidate threatening a wizard? I can understand that you'd be really worried about being voted for, but...

If you're innocent, you need to bear in mind that even if we were to take that view as set in stone (which I don't think is true), there's no guarantee that you were the wizard they thought Volo had caught. He suspected others too, and thought that various other people were innocent.

So, if you're innocent, it's best to calm down and try to think of other avenues aside from ragequitting.

Edit: cross-posted since Rikae at #233.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 11:12 AM

Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.
I've been there and I know nothing of the kind. When I'm a wolf I try to eliminate gifteds, or failing that, players who seem generally dangerous. Some wolves do favour no-trail kills-though not you, as I recall- but no wolf with any sense *doesn't* look for the Seer. Again, this is all common knowledge, and whatever you are I just can't understand your motivations in saying otherwise.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.
I on't know how you managed to miss all this either. And as I said- we were bound to speculate about the kill. That's just normal. You were completely overreacting.

EDIT: x'd since Rikae at #352.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 11:19 AM

Well, I'm off. Guess I won't be posting again, so once you have my role, please take a good look at these people who are so certain Volo was thought a seer, who behaved as though it was unquestionable etc. once it is clear that that isn't what they did at all.

Since I'm the only one in position to know that at this point, I can say what it was instead - almost certainly a framing attempt, and Copper's attempt to look like she's pushing the seer theory independently looks very bad to me. I think perhaps the wizards suspected him as the cobbler, even, and took the package he gift-wrapped for them. Of course wolves like to frame innocents and control the next day's lynch. Of course they do. Any experienced player knows that, and Nerwen is experienced. Of course they also go for seers when they think they spot one, but to behave as though this is the only way they choose kills is absurd.
Sure would be- if I or anyone else had done this. This did not happen, Rikae.. For instance I initially said the evidence against you was "thin" and that it might all be a distraction/false trail. It's right there in my post analysing Volo.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 11:20 AM

Ok, I'm still here and had to respond to this. You're twisting my words, Nerwen. I didn't say the wolves didn't look for the seer, I said they rarely choose the kill because they think it's a seer. I said they rarely "have" a good seer suspect, and yes, this is according to my experience. I've certainly never gone for a player because s/he was "dangerous". Dangerous how? A good player? A good player on the wrong trail is useful, and killing a good player on the right trail is dangerous. Dangerous because they are correct? See the latter statement. Heck, I've left suspected seers alive rather than legitimize their suspicions.

Either the wolves are being very, very bold today or this game isn't what it used to be.

Ok, now I really have to go.

Rikae

01-26-2013, 11:22 AM

Oh, one more thing: it was Greenie who said it was the only explanation that makes sense.

Remember that.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 11:30 AM

I am not twisting your words, Rikae. You are the one who seems to be responding to what you imagine people have said rather than what they've said- all this "certainty" about Volo, and everyone "believing every wolf-kill is of a suspected Seer". These are strawman arguments, pure and simple.

For the last time. Maybe the kill was meant to frame you. That is always possible, and I said it might be. All right. The rest of us- those who are innocent- can't know that. We're bound to speculate and put forward scenarios about why he might have been killed. As usual.

I mean- I thought Gil was paranoid!:rolleyes:

EDIT: X'd with Rikae.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 11:34 AM

Yes, sure. Greenie could indeed be a wolf framing you. I'm not ruling that out. I pretty much haven't ruled anything out at this point.

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 11:34 AM

Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 11:56 AM

Loslote

01-26-2013, 12:05 PM

At this point, I highly doubt Rikae is a wizard. I don't think a wizard would act like this in this scenario. I think she's simply a stressed-out person who is frustrated and that frustration is clouding her judgement. Pure and simple. It's happened before, to a lot of people. At this point, I'd prefer to leave her alone - the current trend seems to be 'Provoke Rikae. Get into a tizzy over how confusing her responses are. Vote, rinse, repeat'. This is getting us nowhere, and the actual wizards are probably sitting back and laughing their pointy hats off at us.

So, then. Moving on: let's look at the votes from Days 1 and 2, combined.

Day 1

Cop--> Boro (1)
Morsul--> Kath (1)
Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
Gil--> Nerwen (2)
Cab--> Cop (1)
Pom--> Cop (2)
Rikae--> Cab (1)
Greenie--> Cab (2)
Zil--> Pom (1)
Ozban--> Cab (3)
Lottie--> Pom (2)
Boro--> Cop (3)
Volo--> Nerwen (3)
Sally--> Pom (3)
Shasta--> Pom (4)
Nog --> Cab (4)

Day 2

Nerwen -> Nog
Oz -> Morsul
McCaber -> Rikae
Brinn -> Volo
Lottie -> Morsul 2
Gil -> Volo 2
Rikae -> Oz
Zil -> Oz 2
Kath -> Morsul 3
Morsul -> Oz 3
Copper -> Oz 4
Volo -> Oz 5
Nog -> Morsul 4
Sally -> Morsul 5

Now, what I find immediately interesting is how little we find Nerwen in the thick of things. Day 1 she doesn't vote. Now, this isn't surprising because she usually doesn't vote on Day 1 - but couldn't she be using that as a way to avoid attention and avoiding a potentially incriminating vote? Day 2 she's the first person to vote, and she votes Nog - who was not all that widely suspected, and was often suspected only of being a cobbler, not a wizard at all. With that vote, she manages to not only stay out of the limelight, but also manages to make essentially a throw-away vote without making it obvious that that's what she did. Day 3, now. She's spend basically the entire Day mucking about with Rikae. She never gets anywhere - most of her posts say "she's not acting like a wizard, but she's not acting like an innocent either, hint hint!" and her early vote seems like her jumping on the opportunity presented for an easy vote. All in all, I'm not thrilled with Nerwen right now.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 12:05 PM

Anyway, enough about Rikae.. The Greenie-Boro thing is quite interesting... though it's hard to say yet what it's all about...
EDIT: x'd with Lottie.

Loslote

01-26-2013, 12:11 PM

One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard. Now tell me a wizard would never kill someone they didn't think was the Seer. It seems to me that following that policy is suicidal and stupid from the perspective of a wizard. I think Rikae had a good point, is too frustrated at the moment to really defend it, and is being bullied by you, a wizard, taking advantage of an easy kill.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 12:13 PM

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 12:17 PM

Loslote

01-26-2013, 12:21 PM

Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.

No, see, you're not reading properly what Rikae is saying. From what I understand after reading through her posts quite thoroughly is that she's saying exactly what I was saying, but she was more frustrated and upset, and thus what she said could be misunderstood. She's not putting forward a straw-man argument. She's taking what she perceives to be unjustified suspicion of her and explaining why it isn't necessarily the case. She isn't saying the wizards don't look for the Seer - she's saying that's not the only factor in their kill choice. Big difference.

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 12:27 PM

So....I have myself a new toy, and toDay we're going to see how poorly/slowly I type on it.

I still say Morsul is a wolf, and that Volo tried to save him. I have no idea why they would have killed him though.

Rikae was oddly pushy about me having a look at Oz yesterDay, which I also find highly suspicious, especially given that we now know he's innocent.

I've read little to nothing of toDay's posts, but those were my feelings as of the beginning of toDay. I'll be back later-ish after I've eaten and actually read the entire thread.

McCaber

01-26-2013, 12:31 PM

Back. Reading. So far it looks like a really weird situation.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 12:39 PM

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!
Exactly what I was thinking. Nerwen's thinking is rather narrow minded. I remember from past experiences as a wolf that unless we had a really good feel on who might be the seer, we would go after either a no trace or someone who could potentially be dangerous (but whose death wouldn't incriminate us).

Now if this was unusual behavior from Rikae, it'd be one thing. But she's acted this way before, so I don't think there's any need to get so worked up over it.

I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.

McCaber

01-26-2013, 12:48 PM

So based on today's actions, Rikae looks better than she did, and Morsul looks worse. This seems like a frustrated innocent getting caught up in personal stress (speaking of, I really hope it gets better for you, Rikae), because I've seen her act like this in the past. In a tense, late game situation a wolfae might try a gambit like this, but there's just no gain now.

Morsul, on the other hand, looks like an opportunist wizard leaping on the chance to get an easy kill off.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 12:53 PM

Arrrgh! I am approaching the "rage quit" stage. I never said all wolves will always target the Seer under all circumstances. I was responding to Rikae's contention that they so rarely do that there's something wrong with even looking at the kill from that angle. This is simply false.

I am getting tired of this whole thing. Maybe I look like I'm persecuting her, but it wasn't my intention and the fact is she has been quite unreasonable.

EDIT: x'd with McCaber.

Morsul the Dark

01-26-2013, 12:54 PM

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.

And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.

Nerwen

01-26-2013, 01:00 PM

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 01:02 PM

It was a hasty vote, Morsul. Considering there was discussion going on about the subject, you should've given your input, but held off on voting. Unless you weren't going to be around for the rest of the Day, which clearly you are.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 01:13 PM

Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Not everyone has shown up either. I don't believe we've heard from Kath or Gil. The prospect of Bane reappearing is starting to look bleak. And what's going on with Shasta? He's at risk for modfire too.

Morsul the Dark

01-26-2013, 01:14 PM

You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.

Unless "lynched by Poe's LAw" is a joke(which I don't get) No I didn't.

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 01:18 PM

Ive just texted him and he says he is unlikely to return toDay because his Internet is still being wonky. :(

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 01:22 PM

Ive just texted him and he says he is unlikely to return toDay because his Internet is still being wonky.
Hmm...I wonder if any chance he'll be able to get a free pass due to his internet situation. Otherwise, it looks like we'll be losing three players toDay, which is unfortunate.

Legate of Amon Lanc

01-26-2013, 01:28 PM

Hmm...I wonder if any chance he'll be able to get a free pass due to his internet situation. Otherwise, it looks like we'll be losing three players toDay, which is unfortunate.

The mods have not yet had time to discuss this in full :) but I think we could give Shasta a free pass still for one more day, since it's for technical reasons - and just hope that he will be able to make it later. Bane seems not responding, so unless he appears (which would be nice), he will be modfired. Otherwise, a reminder for everyone, that they should vote, especially those, who did not do so yesterDay.

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 01:36 PM

No one rage-quitting, please...no one. Calm down. Both sides seem to be misinterpretting what the others are saying, and it doesn't help when you go after it as "my words are getting twisted etc."

Different packs of people behave differently and go after kills for different reasons depending on the situation. Nerwen's not being unreasonable when the fact is analyzing the night kill is what we're supposed to do. I figured we'd get the "they thought Volo was the seer" theory as it's the first basic assumption when someone is killed. We wouldn't be doing a proper job if we just ignored the night-kill.

What needed to be kept in mind is whatever the roles thought in killing Volo, what Volo actually said about his suspicions/innocents/people is just going to lead us in circles. To use his posts to pinpoint what the wizards thought he got right, and thus why they killed Volo, is not going to get us anywhere. It's just as possible maybe they saw his "I need to vote for Nerwen to save McCaber" and then Day 2 "I feel better about Nerwen" as the seerish vibe and thus to get rid of someone who gave a seer vibe before he dreamed on of them.

What's suspicious is the reason's Rikae hasn't so eloquently or clearly pointed out. That is the spin Nog appears to be putting on the kill and that is "they thought Volo was the seer because he was right about one of his suspects." That is where the set up seems to be, and Rikae over-reacted to believe the wizards were setting up her. I agree with Nerwen that if wolves think a seer has pinned one of them, they kill the seer, if killed person turns out to be the seer they bus the wolf that looks bad.

Volo also said I've been reminding him of when we were wolves together. I think Nerwen pointed this out earlier, but has since focused on Rikae. I didn't say anything at the time, but for the sake of attempting not to make this all about Nerwen vs. Rikae. If I were a wizard and worried Volo pinned me, I'd definitely kill him no matter what would wind up happening to me. That being said, I would hope enough know by now I don't panic at every "I have a bad feeling Boro is bad" statement. I accept it's part of my reputation innocents hope I'm on their side, but won't ever trust me until I'm dead and revealed innocent, or cleared by the seer. Cop's had vague gut-feeling day 1, day 2 said for some unknown reason "I feel like I should be voting for Boro right about now" if I were a wizard what makes anyone think I'd go for Volo over Cop's unsubstantiated "bad gut-feelings" about me? Greenie has now provided no reason for bad feelings about me. I'm sure others I haven't read more carefully have stated something similar. The "I don't trust Boro/bad gut feelings" get tossed around more each game than I like to toss dwarves in sacks around.

I'd really really like to get responses and reactions to my posts analyzing people today. Particularly what the crowd thinks of my Nog and Greenie suspicions. If ya'll don't trust my findings and decide I'm suspicious enough to lynch, so be it. I'd like it remembered when I'm revealed innocent Greenie has twice given veil hints to knowing there's something rotten about me, but has withheld her reasons both times.

McCaber

01-26-2013, 01:40 PM

Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.

And My logic is the confusing one?

Yes. I expect people to use their better judgment. The situation doesn't add up for Rikae being evil and simultaneously freaking out like that. That would put a vast undue burden on packmates in the very early stages of the game. And her whole confession post is incoherent probably on purpose trying to showcase the absurdity of her actions.

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 01:45 PM

Crossed with several, but I forgot to respond to Cop here:

Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.

Day 1 I wasn't suspicious of Pom, I was suspicious of you, Brinn, and Nog. Seeing as you had some votes, the others didn't, and despite McCaber and Pom looking opportunistic to latch on and vote for you I wanted to vote for the person I was suspicious of...you.

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 01:47 PM

I'm having a lot of trouble toDay. Or in more appropriate troll-speak, blimey, them wizer's schemes ain't half givin' me an 'eadache.

It's troublesome that whether Rikae is innocent or not, this has taken up so much of the Day for so many people. With the numbers we're dealing with it's already hard (for me, anyway) to give each the attention and analysis that's needed.

So, since I'm not going to have time to look in depth at everyone, I'm going to pick Boro because of some suspicions I have about him and because I want to see if that stacks up to the facts. It'll help me out a lot if he responds to my question at #343.

Boro-analysis/summary

Day 1:

#70 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=679940&postcount=70) - Doesn't like my vote for him, for fairly obvious reasons. Says that Morsul's is less bothersome because there's a clear line of logic and can see what he's thinking.

#86 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=679961&postcount=86) - Thinks Gil is looking in the wrong place and hence would vote Gil if it came down to Gil vs Nerwen. But doesn't seem to really suspect Gil, given knowledge of Gil's style. Thinks wizards may be leaping at an offered redshirt.

- Top suspicions are me, for my vote for him, and Brin, for her vote for Nerwen. Feels reluctant to vote for people who won't be back before deadline. A bit suspicious of Nog for being noncommittal. He states he doesn't want to see Nerwen, Gil, or Rikae lynched that Day, and gives reasons.

#133 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680014&postcount=133) - Says there is a counter-Cop wagon to bus McCaber to the front. (Bus? I thought that was a term used for wolves. Will go and check the definitions post.) Anyway, he comments on how little hard evidence there is and how the voting will be revealing toMorrow. (Not particularly helpful, but not suspicious either.)

#136 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680017&postcount=136) - Votes for me, saying he doesn't see his mind changing and "so might as well go now and see what shakes out".

Day 2:

#162 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680068&postcount=162) - Thinks that Sally looks best, and that Shasta, Inzil, and Lottie look fairly good too. I'm also inclined to think that the latter two look reasonably good on the info so far, but am not so sure about Shasta.

Thinks that the Pom-voters look clean and that those who tried to put forward other candidates - Volo, Nog, and Ozban - look worse. Not listing himself as someone who also tried to go for another candidate after Pom's slip. Out of the three listed there, two are proven not to be wolves. Of course, a lot of other people also thought that non-Pom voters were suspicious.

Did not show up for the rest of the day or to vote, for accepted RL reasons.

Day 3

#278 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680242&postcount=278) - Begins analysis.

Suspicious of Greenie for subtle steering attempts and hypocrisy. Thinks she should still have strong suspicions of McCaber. Thinks Bane looks okay so far. Thinks Brin on Day 1 wasn't as bad as he thought, and that her reasoning looks honest on Day 2 although he doesn't agree with her trust of Greenie.

#307 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680277&postcount=307) - rest of analysis.
Coppermirror - still dislikes my vote, but thinks he could just have revengeful feelings, and thinks Pom's vote and reaction doesn't fit with interpreting me as a wizard.
Gil - doesn't think a wizard Gil would be laying things on so thick.
Inzil - thinks he looks innocent. Personally I think Inzil looks more likely to be innocent too.
Kath - nothing much to say.
Lottie - thinks looks as good as Inzil, but notes that she could be a wizard who was leaving her options open.
McCaber - Argues against some of the points people brought up as suspicious about McCab. Says Greenie's reaction at some times was not good, and Nog's was worse.
Morsul - opinion same as on Day 1.
Nerwen - says little about her.
Nogrod - sees red flags. Thinks might be a wizard who was trying to look like a cobbler.
Rikae - leaning innocent towards her. Makes another point about Greenie.
Sally - thinks looks innocent and making good votes.
Shasta - thinks Shasta wouldn't vote for a teammate when he wasn't under threat or in particular need of looking innocent. (I disagree, based on the first game I played with him. Even so, he did give the deciding Pom vote this time, which is a much more serious situation.)

#320 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680302&postcount=320) - speculates about self-voting Rikae's intentions. Thinks she may be trying to protect someone. Considers possibility that she might be trying to stop her packmates from trying to save her.

#323 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680305&postcount=323) - responds to Greenie's statement (which said that Boro's looking bad but she won't elaborate yet).

#335 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680321&postcount=335) - responds to Greenie and says he'll be waiting for her eventual explanation.

So, overall, it's Boro's Day 1 vote which makes me suspicious, because it looks like a possible attempt to save Pom and he hasn't commented much on his reasoning. (Granted, Nog also looks suspicious on those grounds.) That aside, I find that some of his opinions are reasonable, and that that makes him less suspicious than I thought. It doesn't convince me completely, but it does mean that until I see more of Boro and get some more info, I won't be voting for him. I'm also very curious about the kerfuffle between him and Greenie toDay.

Edit: cross-posted since #363. And spelling.

McCaber

01-26-2013, 01:54 PM

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

I noticed that, too, but as I was a part of that situation I decided to wait on it and see if there would be any fallout from it rather than immediately leap in with a passioned defense and turn it into a big thing right there.

But I agree with your points. It felt really weird to me to be jumped on and have Pom ignored.

EDIT: X'd with CM.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 02:15 PM

Gil

Pom was trying to be a sneaky wizer and gave a vote for Cop, thinking that vote will have nothing to come of it and evade suspicion on Pom and Cop being Wizers. Then Cab voted for Cop. Pom paniced, fearing that if more people vote for WizerCop(keeping the hooliganwizers off the streets har har), Cop will be lynched.
I think that's a stretch. Copper was already gathering some attention for her vote. As someone already mentioned, Pom's vote looked more opportunistic.

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

Nog is least suspected, since he just threw his vote and it had little effect besides state his intention to suspect Cab.

I just have to look at Green, Oz and Rik closer now toDay if I feel they smell like a wizer, but I won't jump to conclusions. Same goes with Cop, my prime suspect in this plot.
So at the beginning of the Day, his suspects are Greenie, Oz, Rikae, andCopper, with Copper at the top.

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.
Then he starts suspecting me. I already noted that me trusting Nerwen was a false statement.

Volo has been one that has been playing rather... Sloppy. This could mean that Vol has no role and thus little interest, or trying to play it super low if given a role. The bandwagon comment and bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee is unsettling.

Thus for toDay, I am going to have to say:

++Volo

If he turns out to be an Ordo, then I will have to go back to my initial suspect of Brin. We shall see toNight as I won't be back on until right before the deadline.
Then he suddenly suspects and votes for Volo, dropping all his suspects from earlier in the Day (particularly Copper). He did say he was going to take a closer look at them, but if he did, he didn't mention it.

I noticed Gil bandwagoned on my vote both Days. I don't know if that's just some weird coincidence.

The rest of his posts that Day are defensive with the woe-is-me attitude. I didn't mind him acting that way at first, but he hasn't backed off of it. I recall seeing this behavior from both an evil and innocent Gil. And I do wonder if perhaps a Gil-wolf may be relying on this behavior to appear as a frustrated ordinary innocent.

That and his inconsistency in suspicion has me worried about him. I did see that he posted that he might not participate much toDay. I do hope he shows up before deadline though, because I'd like to hear from him.

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 02:30 PM

If she were a baddie, Rikae would have to rely on the idea that most players would believe her to be a suicidal innocent, which would be an awfully risky move. Anyone who self-votes is putting themselves at high risk of getting lynched, and if an evil Rikae were lynched, the ratio would be 13-2, making it extremely difficult for the remaining baddies to pull off a win, especially with three gifteds still alive. If an evil Rikae felt certain the increasing lynch would result in her lynch, it seems more likely she would false reveal than self-vote.

I don't know how likely she be the hunter either. This early in the game chances are she'd take down another innocent. And while odds are against it, it'd be particularly disastrous if she accidentally took out the ranger or seer.

This matches my take on the whole, strange situation. Even if a Wizard-Rikae was somehow able to convince everyone she was innocent, she'd be opening herself to the Seer. I can't really see the source of the original drama, though. I mean, yes, Rikae was under some suspicion, but it doesn't appear to have been anything out of the ordinary. So I don't know about the deal between her and Nerwen.

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

I just don't see this as likely. And didn't you initially say you thought Rikae could be the Purseholder, and that was a factor in your vote?

I noticed Gil bandwagoned on my vote both Days. I don't know if that's just some weird coincidence.

That caught my eye as well. If he was a Wizard and you an innocent, it might be a way to either buddy up to you or draw attention to you if he was outed.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 02:35 PM

Nogrod is the other one I'm worried about.

His Day 1 vote did look fishy. He explained his tactic the next Day, which did make me feel a little better about him, but a Nogwolf would be clever enough to come up with some reasonable explanation for his vote.

Day 2 he and Sally were the last two to vote, deciding between the two options. Nogrod mentioned that it was possible both candidates were innocent and the baddies could be just sitting back and letting it happen. I do agree that's possible, but I also think Nogrod could be one of those baddies. While Sally stated she was more suspicious of Morsul, Nogrod was ready to go either way. If he were a wizard and Morsul innocent, it wouldn't matter which of the two got lynched.

ToDay I'm worried about him because of his focus on Volo. While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer). As Boro mentioned, Volo was the cobbler and analyzing his posts and the reasons he was killed will just keep us going in circles. Not to mention, distract us from looking at other things. An evil Nogrod would encourage that, and maybe even chose Volo for that purpose.

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 02:48 PM

Overall opinions

Boro: Doubt I'll be voting for him, for reasons given above. His explanation for the vote I was worried about wasn't bad, but doesn't remove all the suspicion about vote placement. I'm also curious to find out what Greenie says is bad about him. She will have to come up with something toMorrow.

Nog: also has suspicious vote placement on Day 1, and on Day 2 he thought Ozban was a better choice than Morsul (granted, I thought the latter too and so did some others). Was his post toDay one which placed undue suspicion on Rikae? Not especially. If made by a wolf,

Morsul: His vote for Rikae toDay looked hasty. There are still assorted things that I mentioned yesterDay which make me concerned bout him. On the other hand, I don't find the point many people focused on to be persuasive.

If Volo's death was for looking Seerish, his comment on Morsul looking genuine speaks in his favour. But if it wasn't, it might have been a tactic to throw off suspicion of Morsul, because of the perceived Morsul-Volo connection and Volo's statement of him as innocent. (Which...means that in reality, chances are the cobbler thought Morsul looked fishy and wizardy.)

McCaber: I'm a bit less suspicious of him toDay than I was yesterDay. Not a voting candidate at present.

Gil-Galad: He had some very suspicious logic yesterDay. It could be that he is a wizard relying upon people believing that random or illogical things are just part of his playing style, but that makes it hard to know whether or not he's guilty.

Gil voted Volo. There was good reason for an innocent to suspect Volo, and a lot of people did. It would also be a very safe vote for a wizard. (As were many votes that Day, unfortunately.)

I don't think I'll be making a Greenie vote toDay, but I will carefully consider all the information about her before the next Day and hope to have an opinion then. I also need to take a really good look at Nerwen, because so far I haven't been able to get a good feel for her behaviour.

I'm not currently concerned about: Loslote, Bane, Shasta, Inzil, Sally.
Brin I'm feeling more neutral about than I was yesterDay, and I'll want to look back on her posts in case there's something I've missed.

Rikae's behaviour toDay is a bit of a headache. It could be a wizardy confusion tactic, but I don't see why a wizard would be this desperate toDay. Especially since Rikae has a funeral to go to toDay, and that could up stress levels like anything, I'm inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she's an innocent ordo.

ToDay I'm considering voting for: Gil, Morsul, Nog. In no particular order.

Edit: formatting

McCaber

01-26-2013, 02:54 PM

I'm being hastily pulled away and might not be back before DL, so I've got to go with my best candidate so far.

++ Morsul

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 02:56 PM

Okay back and reading soon... only two full pages to read. :rolleyes:

Just a quick one for this last one I saw above this post Brinn talks about me.

ToDay I'm worried about him because of his focus on Volo. While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer). As Boro mentioned, Volo was the cobbler and analyzing his posts and the reasons he was killed will just keep us going in circles. Not to mention, distract us from looking at other things. An evil Nogrod would encourage that, and maybe even chose Volo for that purpose.Yeah. I was online in the start of the Day and shortly in the middle. Sorry. I have not had time to do anything else toDay. But then again, I do think I have concentrated my effort on the best clue we have right now, which is why they picked Volo.

I'm not sure it is the only possible solution they picked him because they thought he was the seer, but if you have a better idea about why they picked him I'm all ears (and not sure if someone has actually done that already in the two pages I haven't yet read - going to do that like now).

What I do dislike (and find a bit disturbing) - if Brinn quotes him right - is Boro's comment of the thought going in circles if we look at Volo because he was the cobbler.

No. Not at all. The thought was about asking why the wolves decided to pick Volo exactly (aka. not knowing he was the cobbler). Volo's actual role has nothing to do with that question.

And Boro should see that.

EDIT: X'd with Copper & McCaber

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:01 PM

Votes so far toDay

Rikae -> Rikae :(
Nerwen -> Rikae (2)
Morsul -> Rikae (3)

McCaber -> Morsul

Yet to vote:

Bane - has he shown up toDay?
Boromir
Brinniel
Coppermirror
Gil
Greenie
Inzil
Kath - has she shown up toDay?
Loslote
Nogrod
Sally

Shasta - absent due to internet problems

I don't think people are wanting to lynch Rikae toDay, and because she already has three votes, we have to be very careful. There's only an hour left til deadline, right? If she's telling the truth, she's an ordo, but we still don't want to lynch her by accident.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:04 PM

Not worried about
Rikae: Just looks like a frustrated ordo.
Copper: As already stated, I'm still thinking that Pom's vote was probably not wolf-on-wolf.
Greenie: I'm feeling good about her posts toDay. They seem well thought-out and logical enough.
Shasta: Hope he shows up toMorrow.
Inzil: His Day 1 vote makes him look more innocent and he hasn't said anything to change my opinion of that.
Loslote: Already was leaning innocent because of her Day 1 vote, plus I like what she's said toDay and agree with a lot of it.
Bane: Will probably be modfired.
Sally: I suppose there's always the possibility she's a very sneaky wizard who threw her mate under the bus, but I see no reason to suspect her.
Boromir: Still not sure about him, but I like what he's said toDay.
Nerwen: Like Rikae, looks more like a frustrated innocent.

Not sure what to think
Morsul: His behavior never fails to confuse me. I'm slightly leaning toward innocent, but still feeling uncertain.
McCaber: I don't know. Pom trying to place focus on him makes him look better, but I'm still at a question mark.
Kath: I didn't like her vote yesterDay; she seemed to simply echo others' comments. But she was a bit behind, so that might be part of it.

Worried about (for reasons already stated)
Gil
Nogrod

Morsul the Dark

01-26-2013, 03:05 PM

I just don't see this as likely. And didn't you initially say you thought Rikae could be the Purseholder, and that was a factor in your vote?
.

It was, Rikae however said later that was untrue. I still can't really firgure out why an innocent to suicide like that. while a wizard might hope to be read as suicidal and left alone.

Thing is I've ragequit before but when I did I PMEd the mod and asked to be. Now obviously that doesnt mean Rikae couldn't go the ingame route but if she was deadset on ragequitting why not just take herself out of the game then we wouldn't be spending so much time in this.

Only a wizard wins with this much confusion.

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 03:06 PM

Rikae seems like the stressed and overreacting innocent Rikae I've seen in the past. Leave her alone, at least for toDay. I'm not touching the other side of that show either. Nerwen is stressed out, and I'm going to let these shenanigans be bygones and move on. I think the entire thing has been blown out of proportion. We can review it toMorrow when everyone has calmed down and go from there.

I'm sorry I'm not more active toDay, but I'll be back in a bit and will provide a list.

X'd since Nog's last

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:07 PM

What I do dislike (and find a bit disturbing) - if Brinn quotes him right - is Boro's comment of the thought going in circles if we look at Volo because he was the cobbler.

Given that Boro was one of the people whom Volo was (to appearances) suspicious of, that is something to bear in mind if thinking that Volo was killed for Seerishness. Esp. since toDay Rikae, the person most likely to be suspected in light of assuming Volo was killed for Seerishness, may be looking more like an innocent.

I think I'll take another look at Boro's posts on this page, since this has caught my attention.

Edit: cross-posted since my last.

Gil-Galad

01-26-2013, 03:07 PM

Alright, I have some time, and reading toDay over, it has been a rather tense day. I don't like the Rikae self-sacrifice, and it does feel like votes are wasted on her. I understand, because last day I felt exactly like her with people twisting my words and making me feel frustrated.

I am ultimately uncertain on everyone, and the majority of todays focus has been talking about Rikae and Volo's potential seer-ness. I will hang around a little bit, but I am at a blank for who I want to confidently vote for as everyDay my views change.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:11 PM

The thought was about asking why the wolves decided to pick Volo exactly (aka. not knowing he was the cobbler). Volo's actual role has nothing to do with that question.
Well no, I don't think Volo's actual role has anything to do with his death (even if the wizards figured it out, why would they kill their own cobbler?). But I do think it a possibility the wizards chose him over a safer choice was because they hoped his death would keep us going in circles.

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 03:14 PM

If I’m sure my opinion isn’t going to change I don’t see a point in holding it for a last minute fury at the DL simply because I will still be around until the DL. I try more to give a person a chance to respond to suspicions if they’ve left for the day, but if I’m sure nothing will look more suspicious than someone making a bad-looking Day 1 vote why bother holding it to the end?It may be we are built differently psychologically, but as an ordinary villager I could more or less never think to "be sure of my opinion" and if I had time to hang around a minute or two later I would like to keep my vote ready if something happens. That I would call responsible game by a villager.

I mean, yes you feel all bombastic about your suspicion (if you can, I rarely do) and vote an hour early before the DL even if you will hang around until the DL - then the seer comes revealing because of being threatened to be lynched, and you have no chance to save her/him any more because you used your vote already. Or something drastic happens and you feel you should reconsider the whole thing - but you can't as you have voted already... These things happen.

But the wolves naturally more or less know what they are ding - so they can be a lot more confident in their voting.

(Btw. what I found suspicious in McCaber's voting on D1 was not that he voted an hour and a half early, but that he explained his vote as not willing to cause a last minute chaos... Last minutes and one and half an hours are two pretty different things: and voting at the last minutes are very different if you know who's around and what are their intentions than coming from nowhere to vote at the last second.)

Blah. It clearly seems I'm not havong time to continue like this remarking on everything that I think would require a comment. Too little time and too much to read for this kind of approach. :(

So from now on I try to focus of just forming a generals idea for toDay.

Kath

01-26-2013, 03:21 PM

Hey. I am here. Had cinema issues.

Quick note having read the narration - I don't think it's a surprise Volo was killed. When I was posting about him yesterDay I kept having freak-outs that his weird behaviour could be Seerish. Least we got lucky with him being the Cobbler rather than the actual Seer!

Reading through now.

Boromir88

01-26-2013, 03:21 PM

++Greenie

Can't stay around and wait any more for her unknown reasons why I suddenly look bad to her.

Loslote

01-26-2013, 03:23 PM

Well, I'm back. I agree that, with so many votes for Rikae already, we need to avoid a last-minute flurry. I'll go ahead and vote now, then...

++Nerwen

I assume you can see why, judging from my previous posts.

And I might hang around, or I might disappear in five minutes - I actually don't know which is going to happen.

Loslote

01-26-2013, 03:24 PM

Can't stay around and wait any more for her unknown reasons why I suddenly look bad to her.

I...don't like this vote. If she has reasons she doesn't want to share, fair enough. I've done that before, too - sometimes sharing all your thought processes is not beneficial to the village. Building a suspicion around that seems...oddly lazy, something I wouldn't expect from Boro, no matter what his role is.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:25 PM

ToDay I'm considering voting for: Gil, Morsul, Nog. In no particular order.
Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.

EDIT: X-ed since Kath

Gil-Galad

01-26-2013, 03:27 PM

++Greenie

Can't stay around and wait any more for her unknown reasons why I suddenly look bad to her.

I always find myself suspicious at the ones that talk the most, and in the past days Nog and Green have definitely been the most supportive, and even non-committed to accusations. They haven't been deciding votes, but have been supporting to others arguments.

Arrgh, decisions decisions. Rather, understandable decisions.

I am afraid I am going to have to trust Green here that she might be the seer, and with Bore getting suspicions since day one, I am following my gut here.

++Boromir88

If Bor does get lynched and turns out to be a wolf, I would highly suggest our loveable insomniac troll to protect her.

xed: since 385

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:28 PM

If Volo was killed for Seerishness, Boro and Gil are top wizard candidates. But Volo might also have picked out innocents and been killed for that.

I remain concerned about Nog and Boro's Day 1 vote placement, and Gil's logic yesterDay. For the reasons in post #229 and his vote toDay, I'm worried about Morsul.

So I could vote for any of those four, since I actually suspect them. I do not want to permit Rikae to be lynched by default, since I don't suspect her any more. (I really don't think a wizard-her would be bringing up a funeral as ammo for why she's stressed. That would be low, and I have no reason to suppose she would stoop that low.)

Edit: crossed since #383

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 03:31 PM

Well, crud. I'm actually able to stick around ToNight, but events haven't made deciding on a vote especially easy.

I don't think people are wanting to lynch Rikae toDay, and because she already has three votes, we have to be very careful. There's only an hour left til deadline, right? If she's telling the truth, she's an ordo, but we still don't want to lynch her by accident.

I have no intention of voting Rikae. I can't see her acting as she did as a Wizard. Leave her to the Seer.

It was, Rikae however said later that was untrue. I still can't really firgure out why an innocent to suicide like that. while a wizard might hope to be read as suicidal and left alone.

Thing is I've ragequit before but when I did I PMEd the mod and asked to be. Now obviously that doesnt mean Rikae couldn't go the ingame route but if she was deadset on ragequitting why not just take herself out of the game then we wouldn't be spending so much time in this.

Only a wizard wins with this much confusion.

I just don't agree, and it looks to me more like you're backpedaling now.

Quick note having read the narration - I don't think it's a surprise Volo was killed. When I was posting about him yesterDay I kept having freak-outs that his weird behaviour could be Seerish. Least we got lucky with him being the Cobbler rather than the actual Seer!

This strikes me as odd, mainly because it reminds me of things I've said as a baddie to "explain" a Night-kill.

x/d with all since #384

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:35 PM

Votes so far

Rikae -> Rikae
Nerwen -> Rikae (2)
Morsul -> Rikae (3)
McCaber -> Morsul
Boromir -> Greenie
Lottie -> Nerwen
Gil -> Boro

Yet to vote:

Bane - haven't seen him toDay
Brinniel
Coppermirror
Greenie
Inzil
Kath
Nogrod
Sally

Shasta - absent due to internet problems

Kath

01-26-2013, 03:36 PM

Oh, and, really - what the bleep does the wizard of Oz have to do with me being a Cobbler? Is it that Oz could be like Ozban? Was that it?

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:36 PM

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 03:38 PM

This voting is flipping ridiculous, people. Stop spreading out the votes and focus.

Oh, and, really - what the bleep does the wizard of Oz have to do with me being a Cobbler? Is it that Oz could be like Ozban? Was that it?

Off to see the wizard, I'd suspect.

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 03:40 PM

Of those who have already received votes, I'd be most likely to vote Boromir. He's not my top suspect, but his vote for Greenie does look bad. Why would he be so concerned with her cryptic reasoning for suspecting of him were he innocent? Especially when I don't think he was highly suspected by anyone else at that point (correct me if I'm wrong).

This is a good point, but Gil, someone I'm wary of due to his voting record, has voted Boro.

I can't decide if Nerwen is a Wizard or a frustrated innocent, so I don't think I'll go that route.

Nog didn't seem to me to be particularly suspicious in the way he went about looking at Volo. I haven't been all that worried about him thus far, which in itself should be a concern. :rolleyes:

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 03:41 PM

++Morsul

But I'm watching my prince very closely now, because that seems shifty.

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 03:43 PM

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard.Well having been a wolf a bit too many times I can tell you there is nothing more urgent for the wolves as to get the seer - whatever the cost.

Well at least to any wolves that have a "high profile" aka. being high on the potential seer-dream list.

But what raises my eyebrow is that Lottie uses their failure last Night as an argument on them not willing to find the seer... It looks a bit too deliberate?

Nothing I think proves for sure Rikae is a wizard - even if that option does present itself not only based on Volo but also on Rikae's actions toDay.

But Boro, and somewhat Gil as well, look bad from the POV of the Wizards thinking Volo the seer (I have yet to see a more convincing explanation as him to be the Wizard-pick as he would have been an easy lynch toDay).

From what I have had time to read my own suspicions seem to be gathering around Brinn as well. It's coming too late to hold things back at the moment, I mean.

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 03:45 PM

I'm not impressed with Morsul's vote. I thought his initial explanation that he thought Rikae might be the purseholder at least plausible, if an unsound basis for a vote. But then he appeared to get nervous and backtrack.

So for me I think it's down to Morsul, Gil, or Boro.

The latter hadn't done anything to trip the radar until he seemed to get unnerved by Greenie. Why would an innocent not give her some room?

x/d with Sally and Nog

Kath

01-26-2013, 03:47 PM

Question about the Rikae debacle: has she actually quit? 'Cause if she has we're down another player assuming Bane is modkilled toDay. And if she has quit when will her death occur. ToNight? ToMorrow's end of Day? Having dead weight hanging round without knowing the role will be irritating for trying to work out roles. How many wizards are we after, if the Seer (assuming she isn't it) is lynched/killed are there Gifted's left to be aware of etc.

And finally thoughts next.

Kath

01-26-2013, 03:48 PM

Oh first sally as you're here could you pretty please do a vote count post? I'm running behind.

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:48 PM

The latter hadn't done anything to trip the radar until he seemed to get unnerved by Greenie. Why would an innocent not give her some room?

What I am wondering is what a wizard would gain from her being voted for now. There was no indication that other people were likely to vote for her toDay, but I can only assume his vote was a genuine attempt, whether he's innocent or guilty.

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 03:49 PM

Rikae (3) I'm torn with: it's not the first time she would have pulled this kind of a show when guilty. And there are god reasons to believe she's a Wizard. Then again, there are other explanations (Boro (1) fex.?)

Morsul (2) could be the easy pick because of the way he posts. Which fdoesn't mean he couldn't be a wizard.

I doubt Nerwen (1) is a Wizard. Or Greenie (1).

Have suspicion on Brinn but haven't had time to just pin it down...

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:50 PM

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 03:50 PM

OK I'm back. First off, a warning - my 'Downs seems to have developed a habit of crashing every five minutes or so.

Very quickly now, since a quick reread made me feel better about both McCaber and Morsul, a part of why Boro looks the worst to me.

First off, an hour into the Day he's posting huge, well thought out analyses he could not have managed in that time unless he wrote them already before the Da started, which implies certainty of survival such as an innocent would not have unless arrogant.
Secondly, he keeps blaming others of hypocrisy while being just as hypocritical himself, casually discarding the idea.
Thirdly, his fixation on me is worrying. He is suddenly too certain.
No one rage-quitting, please...no one. Calm down. Both sides seem to be misinterpretting what the others are saying, and it doesn't help when you go after it as "my words are getting twisted etc."

For instance in #92, she says she’s inclined to think between the Gil and Nerwen battle both are innocent. I’ve used this tactic many many times as a wolf.
--
I suppose it’s possible, because Pom would likely act a different baddie than myself, but I saw #92 and chuckled with the hindsight bias of finding out Pom’s guilt and I’ve used the same tactic before to look all smart and reasonable. “These two knuckleheads arguing are probably both innocent.” And if one winds up getting the other lynched, just an easy tactic to make it look like you've made a wise, substantial point about something.Sorry, mate. Not smooth.

If ya'll don't trust my findings and decide I'm suspicious enough to lynch, so be it. I'd like it remembered when I'm revealed innocent Greenie has twice given veil hints to knowing there's something rotten about me, but has withheld her reasons both times.We don't need a fourth martyr here!

I'm also very curious about the kerfuffle between him and Greenie toDay.The thing is, he's been kerwuffling on his own until now.

EDIT: x-ed with a host

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 03:51 PM

If Rikae is the purseholder this is what she wants...

Legate of Amon Lanc

01-26-2013, 03:51 PM

Question about the Rikae debacle: has she actually quit? 'Cause if she has we're down another player assuming Bane is modkilled toDay. And if she has quit when will her death occur. ToNight? ToMorrow's end of Day?

Rikae, as far as I am aware, did nothing that would equal quitting.

Bane will be modfired at the end of toDay (unless he shows in 10 minutes and votes).

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:51 PM

I'm currently considering Morsul or Boro as things are getting late. But with the latter, I hate the idea of voting for Boro after someone I suspect as much as Gil has encouraged voted for him.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:53 PM

I'm currently considering Morsul or Boro as things are getting late. But with the latter, I hate the idea of voting for Boro after someone I suspect as much as Gil has encouraged voted for him.
Yeah Gil worries me, but I'm also worried about spreading out the votes too much.

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 03:53 PM

Oh first sally as you're here could you pretty please do a vote count post? I'm running behind.

On it.

Coppermirror

01-26-2013, 03:54 PM

++Morsul

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 03:54 PM

Anyone else for Boro? I will vote Morsul over Rikae if it comes to that but would prefer Boro.

Inziladun

01-26-2013, 03:55 PM

I'm currently considering Morsul or Boro as things are getting late. But with the latter, I hate the idea of voting for Boro after someone I suspect as much as Gil has encouraged voted for him.

I think I concur.

++Gil

His voting is highly suspect, and he could tell us much about others, maybe.

Someone join me so this vote is not for nothing.

x/d with all since # 407

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 03:55 PM

Torn between voting for Rikae to have her way or to try Boro (who fits both the idea the Wizards thought Volo the seer and looks suspicious toDay - and might be lynched...)

EDIT: X'd with a lot...

A Little Green

01-26-2013, 03:56 PM

I'll be cannon fodder toMorrow if he dies and turns out innocent, but I'm willing to take that risk.

++ Boro

Nogrod

01-26-2013, 03:57 PM

++ Boro

Here we go and hopefully see more toMorrow...

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:58 PM

++Boromir

Kath

01-26-2013, 03:58 PM

Right, kind of out of time. Read but no wiser.

satansaloser2005

01-26-2013, 03:58 PM

Slow!Sally is slow. Sorry, Kath. >.<

Rikae

01-26-2013, 03:59 PM

Just got back. Boro and not me? Well, I haven't literally quit, so I'll be around tomorrow if I'm not dead, and try to do something helpful for a change. Haven't had time to read anything but the last few posts. Yep, I really just got back at this minute, oddly enough.

Brinniel

01-26-2013, 03:59 PM

Inzil, I would've preferred lynching Gil, but spreading out the votes seemed risky and I don't think enough suspected him for him to be lynched toDay.

Kath

01-26-2013, 03:59 PM

++ MORSUL

Didn't like the 'innocent Cab' thing yesterDay. Explanations weren't great. Hypothetical could easily be cover for slip up.

Kath

01-26-2013, 04:00 PM

Slow!sally is as bad as out of time!Kath. No idea what that vote did!

Legate of Amon Lanc

01-26-2013, 04:01 PM

DEADLINE.

Stop posting. Boro is lynched. Narration to follow shortly.

Legate of Amon Lanc

01-26-2013, 04:49 PM

After the discovery of the mysterious letter in Vol's pocket, much of the night was spent by discussing its contents. The trolls had to take turn in attempts to read it for the others, since neither of the troll knew all the letters. Bane, who could not read at all, soon became bored. He excused himself (actually, he just walked out of the cave, since trolls are not big for excuses) and went off hunting. Similarly bored, Shaz had fallen asleep again.

Rick had been reading Vol's note for already who-knows-manieth time, when some of the trolls finally were able to focus their brains on something else than just the different letters.

"I wonder how comes Rick can read so well," Nog observed.
"Lumme, if I knows!" said Rick, looking up from the note.
"What if she's a wizzer?" Nerve suggested.
"If I am a wizzer?" Rick asked inattentively.
"She said 'I am a wizzer!'" Mors yelled. "She's a wizzer!"
"I was jus' repeatin' what you said," Rick retorted. "You lot said if I'm a wizzer..."
"Again!" shouted Nerve. "She said it again!"
"It's pretty strange," Bore chimed in, "tha' she says 'I'm a wizzer'..."
"Bore's a wizzer!" shouted Gil. "He jus' said it!"
"Wha', did I say I'm a wizzer?" asked Bore, confused.
"'e said it again!" shouted Green. "Let's get 'im!"
Before Bore could react, Nog and Brin caught him by the arms and pinned him to the wall.
"Wha' are you gonna do with me?" Bore yelled.
"Hey, righ', what should we do with 'im?" Lad asked.
"I'm hungry again," said Kat. "What if we roasted him?"

Everyone seemed to like the idea, since the trolls are almost always thinking about food, unless they are trying to concentrate on something else very hard, like reading. They began gathering fuel and started bringing it into the cave. They left Bore in front of the cave, tied by several very thick ropes so that he won't escape. The gathering of fuel took pretty long, because the trolls needed a big fire to roast Bore.

"Hey, careful," Sal suddenly said, noticing light glow in the east. "The sun will get up soon." She was right, the trolls had spent most of the night by trying to read the letters in Vol's note one by one, then again long time discovering what it meant, and then again long time gathering wood.

"Everyone inside!" Lad yelled in fear. Forgetting about everything in the view of the dreaded daylight coming soon, the trolls all ran into the cave.
"Where's Bane?" Cop asked suddenly.
"'e went a-'untin'," said Cab.
"But he's really bad in findin' his way," said Lot.
"He won't make it," Brin added.

He didn't. And neither did Bore, who in the general confusion was left in front of the cave, in plain daylight, which soon came streaming onto the mountain slopes. Bore cried in pain, then stopped still, and remained still forever, turned into stone.

Somewhere on the edge of the forest, not that far from the cave, but too late to return home from his hunt, stood Bane, also turned into a boulder he always had been.

~*~

Dumb and Dead
Thinlómien, "Lom", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Legate of Amon Lanc, "Leg", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Pomegranate, "Pom", a Wizard, boiled and eaten on Day 1
Ozban, "Oz", an Ordinary Troll, crushed to death by a troll pyramid on Day 2
Volo, "Vol", Traitor Troll, magically opened up like a door on Night 3
Bane Mantra, "Bane", an Ordinary Troll, turned into stone while hunting (modfired) on Day 3
Boromir88, "Bore", Ordinary Troll, forgotten outside the cave and turned into stone on Day 3

Dumb and Walking
A Little Green, "Green"
Brinniel, "Brin"
Coppermirror, "Cop"
Gil-Galad, "Gil"
Inziladun, "Lad"
Kath, "Kat"
Loslote, "Lot"
McCaber, "Cab"
Morsul the Dark, "Mors"
Nerwen, "Nerve"
Nogrod, "Nog"
Rikae, "Rick"
satansaloser2005, "Sal"
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz"

~*~

Night 4 starts. Wizzers, start talking. Clever Troll, Insomniac, Purse-troll, send us your picks. Others, sleep.

Thinlómien

01-27-2013, 04:00 PM

By now, dear readers, you must be familiar with how this story goes. The trolls go to sleep as the sun rises, and the wizards go out and enjoy the daylight and the birdsong. They speak words that sound wise, they argue and in the end, they decide which one of the trolls they find the most menacing.

Then they creep back to the troll cave and one of them says something - usually something quite obvious - such as: "Okay, let's kill this one."
"But how?" someone asks, because wizards enjoy listening to their own voices, and those of their intelligent fellows.

So this day, one of the wizards pointed out: "See the sleeping bag she is using as her blanket?"
"Stolen from some poor traveler, no doubt," spat the second one. "It's barely large enough to cover her belly. Maybe it once belonged to some merchant or a merry elf who met a dreadful fate."
"A precious work, it must have been, before this beast dirtied it," opined the third. "Look at those finely shaped silver studs that were used to hold it together."
"Exactly," interjected the first wizard with a grim smile. "Watch."

He stepped closer, raised his staff and began to sing in a deep, quiet voice. First, nothing happened, but then, as if by a stir of the wind, the blanket - or actually, the sleeping bag - shifted, and then slid upwards, and wrapped itself tight around the troll's chest and throat like a strangling snake. The wizard clapped his hands, and as if commanded, the studs clicked into their places and the sleeping bag squeezed the troll, her chest and her throat pressed to the point that the sleeping bag would have burst, had it not been held together by an invisible force. The troll was now awake, her bulging eyes popping out, but she could not make a sound, not even gasp for air. She struggled in vain, the studs held, as the sleeping bag continued squeezing her, and at last, she stopped struggling and became still.

"That's done," the wizard smiled and turned to his fellows.
"How impressive," the second one nodded.
"How did you come by this idea?" asked the third.
"I once gave a friend a set of magical studs that fastened and never came unfastened until commanded," the first said. "But this troll would never have had the chance to unfasten those."

The wizards walked back into the shadows, sniggering under their beards.

When they woke up in the evening, the rest of the trolls found Brin's body. They searched the corner in which she slept. Hidden underneath her straw bedding, they found a small slab of flat stone, inscribed with complicated geographic data, philosophical thoughts and mathematical operations:

"Cave haz entrance."

"I am. Hungry."

"1+1=2"

There could be no doubt - Brin had been the Clever Troll.

~*~

Dumb and Dead
Thinlómien, "Lom", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Legate of Amon Lanc, "Leg", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Pomegranate, "Pom", a Wizard, boiled and eaten on Day 1
Ozban, "Oz", an Ordinary Troll, crushed to death by a troll pyramid on Day 2
Volo, "Vol", the Traitor Troll, magically opened up like a door on Night 3
Bane Mantra, "Bane", an Ordinary Troll, turned into stone while hunting (modfired) on Day 3
Boromir88, "Bore", an Ordinary Troll, forgotten outside the cave and turned into stone on Day 3
Brinniel, "Brin", the Clever Troll, strangled to death with the assistance of magical studs on Night4

Dumb and Walking
A Little Green, "Green"
Coppermirror, "Cop"
Gil-Galad, "Gil"
Inziladun, "Lad"
Kath, "Kat"
Loslote, "Lot"
McCaber, "Cab"
Morsul the Dark, "Mors"
Nerwen, "Nerve"
Nogrod, "Nog"
Rikae, "Rick"
satansaloser2005, "Sal"
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz"

~*~

Day 4 has started. No PMing anymore, but discussion is welcome on this thread instead.

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 04:07 PM

Well, this is bad...

Better go and look for hints from Brin, then.

Inziladun

01-27-2013, 04:10 PM

Ouch. :(

Well, obviously Brinn's vote yesterNight should have been no cause for alarm for the Wizards. Figuring out what they saw with her should be a priority.

x/d with Cop

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 04:10 PM

Rikae

01-27-2013, 04:12 PM

Oh no. Man, gonna have to go back and analyze Brinn in a minute. I also want to look closely at the Boro-wagon. Just some initial thoughts before I do:

I was feeling very bad about Nerwen yesterday because she was really twisting my words - when I said so, she went and did it again even more blatantly. I'll go and find it again, however, I also have to remember not to suspect people for not making sense, something I've regretted doing in the past. We'll see.

Greenie has been making me uneasy all along, and I'd like to look more closely at her, too.

Back in a few with something more substantial.

McCaber

01-27-2013, 04:18 PM

^ I must have clicked on one of the icon things on the reply page by accident, because there's a tree icon on my post there. Don't bother trying to read anything into it, since I didn't mean to put it there.

You're secretly an ally of Gondor! But the wizards already killed the cobbler, so I guess that means you're super secretly a wizard!

But seriously, losing a seer this early sucks. Now I have do back and perform an analysis of what Brinn might have thought and what the wizards saw in her. Let's hope she saw something useful, and not that say Boro was innocent and no one believed her. Anyway, I'll be back with hopefully a better picture of her than the normal reads I got over the rest of the game.

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 04:55 PM

Brinniel, the only clever troll among us...

Day 1

#63 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=679936&postcount=67) - votes Nerwen.
- feels good about Rikae
- doesn't like my vote
- lets Morsul's Kath suspicion go for now
- doesn't like Sally's banter, "but then again it is Sally".
- reasoning for Nerwen vote is "While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far."

Based on that, she might have dreamed of Rikae on Night 1. Might have dreamed of Nerwen, but she said she wasn't terribly confident in her vote, so probably didn't.

Day 2

#178 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680089&postcount=178) - looks at Nerwen's scenarios for Pom's Day 1 motivation, and thinks the innocent-McCaber option is most likely. Guilty McCaber option is "is possible, but I don't find it very likely".

Hard to say from this whether she dreamed of McCaber. This is also phrased in uncertain terms. Perhaps there is something more concrete later.

#179 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680090&postcount=179) - doesn't think wolf-on-wolf votes are likely. Thinks if so would have been one of the earlier voters, and that Sally and Shasta would have had "to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game".

#187 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680105&postcount=187) - gives her impressions!

Nerwen - Likes her contribution that Day so far. (Indication that she dreamed of her?)
Morsul - thinks his actions are his playing style and that that tells us nothing of his role. (Definitely won't have dreamed of him.)
Sally - her vote for Pom makes her think she's innocent. (Might have dreamed of her, but I doubt it.)
McCaber - leaning towards him being more innocent than not, because of Pom's comment. She didn't find his vote very suspicious. (So, might have dreamed of him, but there's nothing clear.)
Gil - says that like Morsul, his playing style looks suspicious regardless of role.
Inzil - "his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious". (Probably didn't dream of him.)
Nogrod - "I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch." (Might have been planning to dream of him? Or might have already?)
Rikae - she has all sorts of positive things to say about Rikae. I think she probably dreamed of her on Night 1.
Volo - "A bit suspicious".
Boromir - So far, sees no reason to suspect him. (But she obviously didn't dream of him.)
Copper - thinks I'm looking more likely to be innocent based on Pom's vote. (But I doubt she'd have bothered to dream of me.)
Oz - is suspicious of him. But we know she didn't dream of him.
Lottie - "I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.". (Might have dreamed of her?)
Bane: - didn't say much.
Greenie: - "So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side." based on her vote and interactions. (Dreamed of her? I'd guess not, but she might have.)
Kath: - didn't say much.
Shasta - his vote "makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent". (Could be a dream? But I doubt it.)

None of that except the Rikae thing stands out, and even that could plausibly be based on non-clever-trolliness. If she stays positive about Rikae, she probably did dream her on Night 1.

#199 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680122&postcount=199) - thinks that the Cobbler-Nog theory is good. So she probably didn't dream of him?

I'll just quote her next list.

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

Her looking suspicious list there...might indicate that she dreamed of Volo, but I'd guess not. This is hard. I can see why the wolves didn't peg her as the clever troll earlier. So, maybe the key is somewhere in Day 3.

#178 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680130&postcount=207) - comments on Oz and Morsul. Might be defending Morsul?

#212 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680135&postcount=212) - something Nog says makes her think better of him as it sounds like "typical Nog". Of Nerwen, says that "I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.".

That's hard to interpret. Could indicate that she dreamed of her, but might not.

#123 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680136&postcount=213) - votes Volo.

And that's the end of Day 2 for Brin. I'll probably come back in a while to look at Day 3.

Conclusions so far: I think she dreamed of Rikae Night 1, but I'm really not sure about who it might be on Night 2.

McCaber

01-27-2013, 05:12 PM

Brinnalysis; or, The Seer Is Seen
Post 51: says banter is overrated. Mentions no names.
Post 53: says me, Pom, and Morsul look better for making good posts.
Post 67: Rikae looks good, CM, Sally, and Nerwen looks bad. Votes Nerwen.
Post 178: says me and CM were most likely innocent.
Post 179: says wolf-on-wolf voted were unlikely on day 1, and calls out Sally and Shasta especially.
Post 187: a big list. Likes: me, Morsul, Nerwen, Sally, Rikae, Inzil, Gil, Boro, Lottie, Greenie, CM, Shasta. Dislikes: Volo, Oz, and Nogrod . Whole lot of noise, not enough signal. Her opinions haven't really changed about anyone since day 1.
Post 199: says Nog might be the cobbler. False.
Post 203: list of everyone. Still no real changes. Nog is her #1 suspect still alive now.
Post 207: doesn't know what to think of Morsul.
Post 212: Nog looks better, Nerwen is still an unknown.
Post 213: votes Volo. So far it looks like he might have been one of her dreams.
Post 290: surprise that Volo got nightkilled. Yeah, that comes close to confirming that hypothesis for me. Says there might be a wizard who voted for Pom, but no names.
Post 295: clarification - either Shasta or Sally.
Post 296: Morsul looks non-suspicious.
Post 304: More vindication of Morsul.
Post 305: Rikae sounds innocent, Nerwen sounds suspicious.
Post 324: Rikae still looks innocent.
Post 353: Nerwen looks fishy, but she stresses that she doesn't know.
Post 358: tells off Morsul.

Edited To Add:
Posts 359 and 362: nothing new.
Post 369: starts suspecting Gil.
Post 371: sill worried about Nog.
Post 373: more about wizard motivations.
Post 381: says Gil and Nogrod are her top suspects.
Post 393: could vote Boro.
Post 403: on Rikae.
Post 408: worried by Gil, but wants to make a lynch count.
Post 416: votes Boro.

And that's all she wrote.

McCaber

01-27-2013, 05:28 PM

Conclusions so far: I think she dreamed of Rikae Night 1, but I'm really not sure about who it might be on Night 2.

I'm pretty sure Rikae got dreamed of at some point. Otherwise, I'm not sure she would have defended her so passionately yesterday otherwise.

Morsul the Dark

01-27-2013, 05:29 PM

Well stinks about Brinn. Sort of confused about the sudden Boro wagon at the end of yesterday.

Rikae

01-27-2013, 05:52 PM

Going through everything from the beginningwith an eye to all the now-known roles.Commenting as I read, so my opinions evolve through the post.

Day 1

First off, wow, I didn't notice this from Loslote on day 1:
An' what's Kat doin' singin' 'bout Wizers of Oz? She sayin' Oz is a Wizer? You know sommut we don'?
Yeah, this is still in the banter zone, but even so, how is that a good thing for an innocent to say? I thought the same thing but didn't mention it until I no longer thought so! A wizard might say it, though, hoping to get people interested in an Oz lynch.

I keep thinking about the ranger save on night two, and how someone must have done something in day one that would have looked seerish to both the wizard and the ranger. Yes, I think they were going for the seer then, because the odds of a ranger save are so low by chance alone -there must be something. Mind you, I'm not trying to out the ranger! Shut up, ranger. :D
I am not sure, though, whether the seer had a dream before day 1. I assume so because we started with a night phase, but maybe a mod can clear that up?
It kind of looks as though Morsul and Pom are trying to interact with each other a little bit. He says he always suspects her, she asks if that means he will now, he says no, he doesn't want to have tunnel vision, and later says that her suggestion (pro-banter) is good. Looks like he's maybe trying to excuse himself from ignoring her preemptively. I could be reading too much into this, though.

Weirdly, in #29 McCaber says Inzil "defended" Pom, when actually Inzil was kind of doing the opposite, saying Pom didn't make a good suggestion but just a standard day 1 statement. Probably an honest mistake on Cab's part although it jumped out at me as weird even at the time. Defends, really? Why did Cab think Pom was under attack in the first place? It's weird.

Sally is bantering up a storm and really, really under the radar. In fact, I keep forgetting she's in this game, which isn't the usual case with her. As a matter of fact, there is half a page of banter between Sally, Nerwen and Copper. Don't get me wrong, it's funny banter! However, Brinn puts a stop to it and talks about hating day 1 and baddies using banter as a distraction.

Brinn says I "seem the most genuine" (something I thought a little odd at the time because I hadn't done anything but banter myself) and that Pom "seems okay as well, for now". The "for now" is seerish in retrospect, at least. I suppose I wouldn't have been an unlikely night 1 dream. Brinn also criticizes Copper's and Morsul's votes, but votes for Nerwen, saying "I don't feel terribly confident in my vote" and emphasizing that it is "weak reasoning". Because of this I'm inclined to think she hadn't dreamed of Nerwen at that point and wanted to emphasize that for someone reading after her death. A badly reasoned vote for a known wiz would have been seer suicide, after all.

Gil votes for Nerwen claiming not to want to add another name, and they argue about it for another half a page. Gil's reasoning was strange there.

Pom says
Nerwen vs Gil-galad. I'm not inclined to think either of them Wizers based on this dispute. Ner jumps, but reasonably, not only because of a vote for her but because of a very strangely cast vote. And despite saying that, as well as the fact that some of Gil's explanations do indeed seem forged (coming way after the vote and slowly developing more and more elaborate), the paranoia seems more like something a typical first-day-lynch innocent would be like, rather than a Wizard. It is creating discussion and pulling attention towards him. For that, and for the sake of him, after all, being a typical first-day lynch, I'd be willing to give him a pass for the day."Unfortunately I could see a wolf saying this about any two people of any roles in such an argument. A good way to win innocents' trust as well as defend a fellow without it standing out.

In #99 Pom defends Nerwen again, from Brinn. Would she be so obvious in defending her if Nerwen was evil? I doubt it.

Sally points out Pom's "Keep an eye on people going for Cop I'd say.", and Inzil agrees that it's "odd".

Greenie comes in, agrees with a bunch of people, and then says of Pom "The girl's got some nerve saying this right after voting Cop herself. :p"
Hmm.

Lottie says:
Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort, which makes me raise my eyebrows a bit. I'd have to say she's my top suspect right now.
Again, would a baddie at this point? Would a Lottie-baddie particularly? Maybe.

Volo says:
Brin[/B] #67 How come is Rikae genuine. All she's done is troll around cheerfully and preach that banter is useless and banter about banter more so (which is a helpful observation, but only by so much). Brin #67 How come is Rikae genuine. All she's done is troll around cheerfully and preach that banter is useless and banter about banter more so (which is a helpful observation, but only by so much).

Now I think he's picked up on seerishness and pointing it out to the wolves, but again I may be reading too much into this.

Inzil votes for Pom, but Cab looks more likely to be lynched at this point. Lottie gives her the second vote, making Lottie look somewhat better to me. Sally ties Pom with Cab, making her look much better. Voting for a baddie isn't always so innocent-looking, but at this point there was a Cab wagon with very similar reasoning behind it that a wolf could have easily chosen.

And of course Shasta decided the lynch. Why, in fact, is he still alive? Come to think of it, eliminating someone so innocent looking (and known for being psychic) would have been a good choice, which (along with the ranger save) does lean toward them thinking they had found the seer instead.

Day 2:

Jumping right to Brinn. She says, out of Nerwen's options, t is most likely
[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)[quote]
Although she also says #3, McCaber is guilty is possible but not very likely. She also says she doesn't think Sally and Shasta are wolf-on-wolf voters.

None of these really seems like a dream hint, except maybe the McCaber thing. I suppose it's possible she dreamed of Cab and found him innocent.

Brinn then looks at everyone in #187 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680105&postcount=187). She doesn't pick anyone out as particularly guilty, and Oz is the only one she outright refers to as "suspicious". It looks like she had only dreamed of innocents.

This sounds very seerish from Brinn and the wolves might have thought so:
[quote=Brinn]In my previous post, I forgot to keep the cobbler in consideration. Anyone could be the cobbler and their vote and/or a baddie's opinion of them doesn't put them in the clear for that role. But I'm not going to worry much about that possibility since the cobbler isn't the easiest to identify, especially if they inadvertently help the village. And the cobbler counts as an ordo;

In #203 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680126&postcount=203) Brinn doesn't appear to be singling anyone out, and McCaber isn't on her most innocent list.

Day 3:

Not going to say much now because I have to go make dinner, but Brinn is now defending Morsul, and says:
Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious. I need to take a bit of a break, but I'll look more closely at yesterDay's events later.

I would think she dreamt of him, but for the "still not sure". She also defends me. She suggests that one of Sally and Shasta may be a baddie, and this is why they weren't killed. She analyzes Gil (#369 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680364&postcount=369)) and says she's worried about Nogrod. In #376 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680371&postcount=376) she lists everyone again, but nothing looks like a hint to me! Perhaps she found the ranger or hunter and wants to conceal that? I don't think she found any wizard, but if she did it would be Gil, since her case against him kind of comes out of the blue. That would also explain her death, if it wasn't from general seerishness.

Ai! I wasn't here for this:
I am afraid I am going to have to trust Green here that she might be the seer, and with Bore getting suspicions since day one, I am following my gut here.

++Boromir88
Talking openly about the seer, instrumental in the Boro lynch, and the seer focused on him. Gil is going to the top of my suspect list.

And then Brinn says at the end of the day:

Inzil, I would've preferred lynching Gil, but spreading out the votes seemed risky and I don't think enough suspected him for him to be lynched toDay.

Ok, now I think she dreamed of him.

EDIT: X'd with everyone since my last post.

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 06:46 PM

Brin Day 3.

#290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680258&postcount=290) - Surprised about Volo being killed. Thought he looked suspicious, but that his posts didn't stand out as Seerish.

#295 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680263&postcount=295) - Considers possibility of one of Sally and Shasta being a wizard, talks about how the Volo kill might be misdirection.

#296 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680264&postcount=296) - "While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious."

So, if she dreamed of him, he was probably innocent. But it's hard to tell if she did dream of him.

#304 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680274&postcount=304) - defends Morsul, thinks he's not necessarily displaying wizard behaviour.

#305 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680275&postcount=305) - thinks Rikae's behaviour is frustrated-innocent-Rikae behaviour. Is suspicious of Nerwen for jumping on that. (So she probably didn't dream of Nerwen?)

#324 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680306&postcount=324) - more defence of Rikae. It's clear she must have dreamed of her.

#353 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680343&postcount=353) - I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.

We probably need to be examine Nerwen carefully. My impression is that Brin probably hadn't dreamed of her before, and that chances are she would have dreamed of her this Night if she hadn't been killed.

What do you think, is it possible she'd already dreamed of Nerwen?

#362 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680354&postcount=362) - Wonders if Shasta might get a free pass. I'd guess from this that she hadn't dreamed of him.

#369 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680364&postcount=369) - A post full of suspicions of Gil, although phrased quite mildly.

I recall seeing this behavior from both an evil and innocent Gil. And I do wonder if perhaps a Gil-wolf may be relying on this behavior to appear as a frustrated ordinary innocent.

That and his inconsistency in suspicion has me worried about him. I did see that he posted that he might not participate much toDay. I do hope he shows up before deadline though, because I'd like to hear from him.

#371 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680366&postcount=371) - Is also worried about Nogrod. I agree with her conclusions.

Not worried about
Rikae: Just looks like a frustrated ordo.
Copper: As already stated, I'm still thinking that Pom's vote was probably not wolf-on-wolf.
Greenie: I'm feeling good about her posts toDay. They seem well thought-out and logical enough.
Shasta: Hope he shows up toMorrow.
Inzil: His Day 1 vote makes him look more innocent and he hasn't said anything to change my opinion of that.
Loslote: Already was leaning innocent because of her Day 1 vote, plus I like what she's said toDay and agree with a lot of it.
Bane: Will probably be modfired.
Sally: I suppose there's always the possibility she's a very sneaky wizard who threw her mate under the bus, but I see no reason to suspect her.
Boromir: Still not sure about him, but I like what he's said toDay.
Nerwen: Like Rikae, looks more like a frustrated innocent.

Not sure what to think
Morsul: His behavior never fails to confuse me. I'm slightly leaning toward innocent, but still feeling uncertain.
McCaber: I don't know. Pom trying to place focus on him makes him look better, but I'm still at a question mark.
Kath: I didn't like her vote yesterDay; she seemed to simply echo others' comments. But she was a bit behind, so that might be part of it.

Worried about (for reasons already stated)
Gil
Nogrod

That makes it quite clear that she hadn't dreamed of several people. We already know she must have dreamed of Rikae, but aside from her she might have dreamed of Lottie, Greenie, or Nerwen. Probably didn't dream of McCaber or Morsul after all. In fact, I'm sure she didn't dream of Morsul, based on her next post.

#387 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680384&postcount=387)- Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.

So I don't think she dreamed of Morsul, but it looks like Gil or Nog-lynchin' time. Probably Gil, because it looks as if she dreamed of him and it's not so clear whether she dreamed of Nog.

#408 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680405&postcount=408) - Yeah Gil worries me, but I'm also worried about spreading out the votes too much.

#420 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680418&postcount=420) - Inzil, I would've preferred lynching Gil, but spreading out the votes seemed risky and I don't think enough suspected him for him to be lynched toDay.

Yep, looks like we're lynching Gil toDay. I was already planning on voting for him (after kicking myself for my vote yesterDay), but this just sets that in diamond. We could discuss Gil more, but the time could probably be better used on working out the identities of the other wizards.

Anyway. Gil, have you got any defence?

And Greenie, presumably your reasons from yesterDay weren't the only ones you had for suspecting Boro. Could you tell us now about what the rest was?

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 08:05 PM

On the assumption that Gil really is a wizard:

- There's a chance that, given Gil's apparent usual playing style, they will have thought right from the start that there was a good risk of him being lynched for that. Accordingly, they probably took some extra care when talking about him, and would have been ready in advance to bus him. I think that's something we should bear in mind when looking back on previous Days.

- So, they certainly wouldn't defend him toDay. And Gil might not even bother to show up. All these things will limit the information available to us.

- We can best use the day in looking for the other wizards. To stay quiet and to allow the wizards to stay quiet is to lose the opportunity to gather more info.

Nerwen

01-27-2013, 08:18 PM

Okay. It looks like Rikae must be innocent, and Rikae, I'm sorry I suspected you. However, I did believe you needed looking at, and I countered your arguments because I thought they were really strange and didn't make sense. And the fact is, I have seen you behave that way as a wolf. Okay?

Morsul the Dark

01-27-2013, 08:25 PM

Here's my worry.

If Gil is nota wizard that means they've got two easy lynches to pull out at a critical time.

Both I and him seem to be easy to throw suspicion at. I don't play with him often, some things he says are odd, but I Think I understand.

I know why I come under fire. Because I say every idea that comes into mind while posting I don't care whether or not it'll sound suspicious, if someone wishes they can twist what is said anyway. which leads to "sloppy" posts sometimes.

I think I have to look into some people really going after me and Gil It's easy to suspect us, so those voters might be throwing suspicion thus looking helpful without actually accomplishing much.

Inziladun

01-27-2013, 08:26 PM

So people are leaning toward Gil being the main suspect?
I've thought he looked dodgy anyway, hence my vote yesterNight. I have to wonder why they didn't choose me instead of Brinn though, unless they took a chance that I was too careless in my suspicions to be a Seer.

On the assumption that Gil really is a wizard:

- There's a chance that, given Gil's apparent usual playing style, they will have thought right from the start that there was a good risk of him being lynched for that. Accordingly, they probably took some extra care when talking about him, and would have been ready in advance to bus him. I think that's something we should bear in mind when looking back on previous Days.

- So, they certainly wouldn't defend him toDay. And Gil might not even bother to show up. All these things will limit the information available to us.

You seem rather sure of how things with Gil have and will play out.

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 08:50 PM

You seem rather sure of how things with Gil have and will play out.

That's my guess for how things might be if Gil is a wizard (which is unconfirmed, but I do think it's quite likely that Brin dreamed of him). If you've got other ideas or interpretations, please do go over them.

Nerwen

01-27-2013, 08:54 PM

Regrading Gil-

I think it must be him, yes.

As always, the alternative are random/no trace and misdirection, i.e. "clearing" a Rikwolf or framing an innocent Gil- but that seems unlikely to me.

If Gil is innocent, and it was Brinn's defence of Rikae alone that tipped them off, you'd think they should have gone for Loslote instead, as she actually went so far as to vote me for suspecting Rikae.. You know, it could have looked like the overreaction of a Seer thinking "anyone who votes my dreamed innocent must be evil! Die!" (If she's innocent, of course.)

EDIT: x'd with Coppermirror; x'd with Cop, Zil, Morsul.

Inziladun

01-27-2013, 09:00 PM

That's my guess for how things might be if Gil is a wizard (which is unconfirmed, but I do think it's quite likely that Brin dreamed of him). If you've got other ideas or interpretations, please do go over them.

It just seemed odd that you thought it likely he wouldn't show up to defend himself.

Coppermirror

01-27-2013, 09:09 PM

It just seemed odd that you thought it likely he wouldn't show up to defend himself.

Oh, okay. I was thinking that if he's a wizard and he thought things were totally hopeless for him, he might not even show up, in order to limit the amount of information he might give us in the course of mounting a defence.

Nerwen

01-27-2013, 09:56 PM

More on Brinn's possible dreams

Brinn also paired Nogrod with Gil in her suspicions yesterDay (#371 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680366&postcount=371), #387 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680384&postcount=387)). It would be lovely to think she had dreamed both as wolves, but I don't believe this can be the case.

The Day before she was "unsure" about both of them: (#187 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680105&postcount=187), #203 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680126&postcount=203)) and considered (#199 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680122&postcount=199)) Nog as a possible cobbler.

It seems clear, then, that Brinn hadn't dreamed either of them prior to Night Three, and, self-evidently, couldn't have dreamed both on the same Night.

Interestingly, though, she talks about Nogrod as "one to watch" (#187) and says she will "keep an eye on him" (#203). At this point, it looks a lot more like she's planning to dream Nog then Gil. And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680366&postcount=371))– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill. Now, as I was at pains to point out yesterDay– doing so is simply normal practise. Thus, this could be a Seer "reaching" in order to make a case on someone she knows is a wolf. I'm sure we've all seen that kind of thing. On the other hand, it could just as easily, or more easily, simply be a Seer discounting evidence against someone she knows is innocent (i.e. Rikae.)

And after all, it was Gil she "would have preferred voting".

EDIT:formatting. EDIT2:fixed error.

Rikae

01-27-2013, 10:08 PM

Regrading Gil-

I think it must be him, yes.

As always, the alternative are random/no trace and misdirection, i.e. "clearing" a Rikwolf or framing an innocent Gil- but that seems unlikely to me.

That doesn't even make sense. If they thought Brinn was an ordo, her death wouldn't "clear" me anyway. That is, unless they can expect the village to assume that wolves only ever kill people who suspect them.

No offense, but I don't know what to make of you, Nerwen. You really are saying a lot that doesn't make sense, and I wouldn't expect that from you as an innocent or a wizard.

At any rate, yes, it could have been they just got lucky and killed the seer thinking it was a no trace kill, in which case Gil would be innocent. I wouldn't be so sure about him if Brinn's last post hadn't looked like a hint. Even so I'm not as certain about it as you and Copper seem to be. I don't think she'd risk misleading the village by making a whole separate post about how she wanted to lynch Gil - I wouldn't - but I can't be sure.

I would like to hear from him, anyhow.

Rikae

01-27-2013, 10:14 PM

And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680366&postcount=371))– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill.

Wow, that's a good point actually. I think you may be right. Perhaps Nogrod was the dream after all?

Nerwen

01-27-2013, 10:37 PM

That doesn't even make sense. If they thought Brinn was an ordo, her death wouldn't "clear" me anyway. That is, unless they can expect the village to assume that wolves only ever kill people who suspect them.
Hence my saying it was unlikely. Really don't think there's any call for you to say I'm not making sense.

Nerwen

01-27-2013, 10:47 PM

Wow, that's a good point actually. I think you may be right. Perhaps Nogrod was the dream after all?
Well, I wouldn't want to rule it out. Though there's also what I said: It could simply be that she knew you were innocent, and therefore was inclined to look askance at anyone pushing the significance of a kill that seemed to point to you. But she didn't seem so inclined to suspect other people for that reason.

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 12:49 AM

Sorry for the tardiness, I have been bouncing back between doctors all weekend.

I had a feeling suspicion will be continued on me, and it is hard to say if Brinn did a seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear. I did not like how Inz voted for me, and hoped for others to jump on even after it was stated that the votes were really spread out. I am still an obvious easy lynch for toDay, but myself being exhausted I just want others to look closer at Inz if I do get lynched and you discover that I am just an ordinary. I figure, if I go down might as well take a Wolf down with me.

You know my last posts for every day, I have been shady and would warrant a seer-dream.

Not sure what else to say for my defense aside from avenge me in the likely case I get lynched. With Brinn putting Nog with myself on the suspicion list could show that she dreamed Nog and hasn't dreamed me yet.

Inz and Nog are definitely the two we need to look at.

I apologize for not adding more, my brain is drained from this past couple of days. Possibly after sleep I can look more tomorrow.

Nerwen

01-28-2013, 01:31 AM

And here's Gil himself to make my head hurt.

I had a feeling suspicion will be continued on me, and it is hard to say if Brinn did a seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear. I did not like how Inz voted for me, and hoped for others to jump on even after it was stated that the votes were really spread out. I am still an obvious easy lynch for toDay, but myself being exhausted I just want others to look closer at Inz if I do get lynched and you discover that I am just an ordinary. I figure, if I go down might as well take a Wolf down with me.

You know my last posts for everyday, I have been shady and would warrant a seer-dream

So... you're saying you think she did dream you, Gil? You know what that implies, right?

Coppermirror

01-28-2013, 07:45 AM

Back and reading...

Inziladun

01-28-2013, 08:33 AM

I did not like how Inz voted for me, and hoped for others to jump on even after it was stated that the votes were really spread out.

You leave out the fact that there were still several people who hadn't voted when I gave mine. I thought you were a better bet than Boro, and that Cop for one was feeling the same. My vote crossed with Cop's.

Coppermirror

01-28-2013, 08:51 AM

I have to vote within the next hour, and I intend to vote for Gil. For his fishy logic on Day 2, the possibility that Volo was killed for suspecting him, his vote yesterDay, and that I believe Brin probably dreamed of him. That's so much suspicion that I really have to find out if he's a wizard at this point. I realise that there's also a chance she might have dreamed of Nog instead and found him guilty, and indeed, Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.

I won't vote until I have to, though, just in case someone comes up with an argument that persuades me before then.

Coppermirror

01-28-2013, 09:53 AM

++Gil

Hopefully this will be correct. I won't be back before the deadline.

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 09:57 AM

Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.

I will hold it to you to vote Nog tomorrow if you decide to vote for me toDay. We got super lucky on the first day, and now it is just going downhill for us and we are losing a lot of innocents. I understand that this game is about senseless lynchings, but I just want to feel good that a Wolf gets killed after me.

So... you're saying you think she did dream you, Gil? You know what that implies, right?

Of course I do. It implies that she would have known my true role in this and would have looked at other trolls aside from me toDay, if she survived.

The way it looks, Nerwen and Inz are all gung-ho to lynch me toDay along with others non-committed but leaning towards it. I will state what I have stated before: I am innocent, a lynch of me would prove that, and you can assume this is just being a tricksy wolf trying to avoid lynchings, but I have accepted the possible inevitable and just ask that look at the trolls that were so persistent on an easy kill for me.

I do not like Nerwen's postings, not since her day 1 defense against me. When she got the spotlight, she put in a lot of effort to shake it off, and when she wanted to vote for someone she did not tarry off the path. An innocent would want to get as many wolves out as possible, a Wolf would focus on one at a time. Look back at her posts and decide yourself, this is what I feel.

With that said,

++Nerwen

It is up to you my friends, we really need to get a wolf kill in here.

Xed: with Cop

satansaloser2005

01-28-2013, 10:42 AM

Hello, all. Straight to business today, as I have to work this afternoon and am unsure how available I'll be to post on the thread.

I know others have looked at Brinn's posts, but I have blatantly ignored their summaries and would like to note the following (so if it's a repeat, sorry).

Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.

So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....

Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).

And now I need to read toDay's posts properly. I will return later with thoughts and probably a vote.

Nerwen

01-28-2013, 10:50 AM

Of course I do. It implies that she would have known my true role in this and would have looked at other trolls aside from me toDay, if she survived.
You said " it is hard to say if Brinn did a Seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear". No it isn't.

The way it looks, Nerwen and Inz are all gung-ho to lynch me toDay along with others non-committed but leaning towards it. I will state what I have stated before: I am innocent, a lynch of me would prove that, and you can assume this is just being a tricksy wolf trying to avoid lynchings, but I have accepted the possible inevitable and just ask that look at the trolls that were so persistent on an easy kill for me.
Actually I haven't been particularly "gung-ho" to lynch you- not more than anyone else and less than some. The person who has been strongest and most consistant in pushing for your lynchng toDay is Cop, whom you don't even mention. Why pick on me? It seems so random...

I do not like Nerwen's postings, not since her day 1 defense against me. When she got the spotlight, she put in a lot of effort to shake it off, and when she wanted to vote for someone she did not tarry off the path.

My defence? You mean when you made a really dodgy-looking vote for me and I, along with various other players, said, "Gosh, what a dodgy-looking vote"? And then you just started screeching about how everyone was out to get you and how "Nerwen's evil defensiveness shows she has something to hide"?

And then you go on to vote me. Even though in your previous post it was "Inz and Nog" we needed to focus on.

Possibilities.

1. You are a framed innocent who has developed some sort of paranoid fixation on me that's making you see me as your chief persecutor.

2. You are a flailing wolf who has settled on me as the best current prospect for an innocent lynch.

3. You are a sneaky wolf who is hoping to take me down with him via over-the-top accusations that will be seen as "wolf-on-wolf".

EDIT: x'd with Sally.

A Little Green

01-28-2013, 11:00 AM

I won't have much time to play toDay I'm afraid, but I'll do my best!

And Greenie, presumably your reasons from yesterDay weren't the only ones you had for suspecting Boro. Could you tell us now about what the rest was?That takes us to the embarrassing part. Basically, I thought you were the Seer and had dreamed him a Wizard. I had considered that a possibility since Day 1 (which was why I didn't vote for you though I found your vote a bit dodgy). That coupled with his odd behaviour yesterDay made me pretty convinced he was a Wizard. I obviously didn't want to say aloud that I thought him a Seer-dreamed baddie; actually I was thinking to stay off him until toDay and if you still weren't dead, drop the issue. But in lack of other decent lynch candidates on the block, and given that he got more blatantly suspicious by the minute, I decided to go with it already yesterDay. A mistake, obviously. :(

Regarding Brinn: I agree that her Seerishness pretty much clears Rikae. As for Gil and Nog - I'm not sure she dreamed either of them; Gil is a possibility but I don't think Nog is. As in - if she had dreamed a Nogzard, I seriously doubt she would have specifically said that her preferred lynch choice was someone else.

Interestingly, though, she talks about Nogrod as "one to watch" (#187) and says she will "keep an eye on him" (#203). At this point, it looks a lot more like she's planning to dream Nog then Gil.I feel a bit stupid asking this, but why would a Seer hint beforehand at who she means to dream of? Seems risky to me, and I don't see Brinn as a risk-taking Seer.

EDIT: x-ed with Sally and Nerwen

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 11:01 AM

2. You are a flailing wolf who has settled on me as the best current prospect for an innocent lynch.

I find this Hilaurious that you refer to yourself as an innocent lynch. Nobody here besides myself has pointed you out for wolfishness or even voted for you (Aside from the deceased Brinn and Volo). You only have one vote for you, why do you constantly think that that means it is the end of you?

Look at my past in this game, I have found no one that has supported me, and every one that finds me suspicious. If I was a wolf, I would not throw names in that haven't been thrown in before, because the key to a Wolf in lynch-play is too bandwagon innocents one by one.

You are very defensive, admit that. I say one thing against you and it feels to me that you go to the ends of the earth to shut me down, and that is perfectly warranted. I just want to get it through to you that your aggression towards me is misguided, and to focus on others. I am obviously a poor wolf by the way I play, and I want us to get a wolf kill in.

Why did I vote for you? Because my dear, you are the most wolfish I have seen yet. Inz and Nog are up there, but they have been playing it close to the chest and still exploring other players, albeit Inz is changing.

If it turns out that we are both innocent, then this arguing towards each other is ultimately useless.

Xed: with Greenie

Nerwen

01-28-2013, 11:03 AM

Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).
Brinn said she would have preferred to lynch Gil, but didn't think enough people suspected him at the time. However, see my points on why it could have been Nog she dreamed.
EDIT: Gil and Greenie

satansaloser2005

01-28-2013, 11:05 AM

Brinn said she would have preferred to lynch Gil, but didn't think enough people suspected him at the time. However, see my points on why it could have been Nog she dreamed.

I don't disagree that she could have dreamt Nog, but if she did, I think it was after she said he could be the cobbler. Between the two of them, however, I'd say Nog is the more likely dream candidate, as I honestly believe Brinn would have voted Gil yesterDay if she knew he was a wizard.

Nerwen

01-28-2013, 11:10 AM

You are very defensive, admit that. I say one thing against you and it feels to me that you go to the ends of the earth to shut me down, and that is perfectly warranted. I just want to get it through to you that your aggression towards me is misguided, and to focus on others. I am obviously a poor wolf by the way I play, and I want us to get a wolf kill in.
Once again- none of this happening. I'm not focussing on you any more than anyone else is. You voted me, remember? Not the other way round.

Again, either you are an innocent weirdly fixated on me for no apparent reason...or this is some kind of wolf-ploy.

I don't know whether to take that last sentence as a slip, or just more weirdness.
EDIT: x'd with Sally.

satansaloser2005

01-28-2013, 11:21 AM

Gil or Morsul. Those are my options. Both are too suspicious right now to be ignored, and it's obvious neither was cleared by Brinn. I'm not sure which to go for though.

I will be voting within the next half hour or so. If you want to try to persuade me one way or the other, now is the time.

Loslote

01-28-2013, 11:26 AM

Personally, I think this Nerwen-Gil drama is almost more interesting than the Brinn drama. Looking at it carefully, then, to see what's going on...

Option 1 is obviously, both Nerwen and Gil are innocents at each other's throats.

Option 2: Nerwen is a wolf, poking and prodding at the obvious lynch choice Gil to make him squirm and look even more guilty, and to make herself look good for participating a lot and for 'hunting wolves'.

Option 3: Gil is a wolf trying to take innocent Nerwen down with him.

Option 4: Gil is a wolf attacking his packmate Nerwen so that whoever survives toDay's lynch looks better for having bussed their packmate.

Now, looking at the other things Gil has done. His three big suspicions - Zil, Nog, and Nerwen - seem odd for a wolf because Zil has been considered generally innocent all game for how he treated Pom and Nerwen and Nog has been suspected lightly, off and on, all game, but never seriously threatened. Were he a wolf fumbling for an innocent to take down with him, I'd think he would have chosen someone like Morsul, who has been suspected heavily all game and nearly lynched a few times. Option 3, then, seems unlikely.

Option 1 seems unlikely, given Brinn's hints.

Option 2 and Option 4 both seem fairly likely to me. Option 2 seems like a repeat of the Nerwen-Rikae kerfluffle yesterDay, and Option 4 is the sort of thing wolf packs do all the time when they know one of their own is doomed. The only thing bothering me with Option 4 is that Nerwen herself actually mentions it in one of her posts, and I don't know if a wolf would bring that possibility to the forefront of people's minds like that.

All in all, then, I continue to find Nerwen suspicious, and I think it's likely Gil is as well.

Finally, I have to work for a few hours today, but I'll be back about an hour before DL. I'll hold my vote until then.

satansaloser2005

01-28-2013, 11:27 AM

Nerwen

01-28-2013, 11:28 AM

After some thought I've decided Gil's recent posting looks, on the whole, more like a desperate wolf than an injured innocent.

So-

++Gil

Edit:x'd with Sally and Lottie.

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 11:34 AM

In all honesty Nerwen, it is our play styles that don't mesh well and I am starting to feel like Rik here. I am at the point that I would just forfeit the game and be done with it. I am that frustrated.

Am I bitter? Sure I am but not because I am getting lynched. It is because I want to focus on other players. Lynching is part of the game and I accept that.

Just that those who voice for my demise will feel silly that they lynched an innocent. Except for the grinning wolves.

satansaloser2005

01-28-2013, 11:39 AM

Nerwen

01-28-2013, 11:39 AM

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 11:41 AM

Gil, Nerwen (as well as the others) is totally within her right to suspect you as she's done. I'm truly sorry you're upset, but when you act suspicious, you're going to be suspected, and you've been suspicious for quite some time now. Actually, you've been bloody suspicious. And now you can be bloody and suspicious.

++Gil

I must go to work. I'll try to check in, but no promises.

Meh, I am resigned to my death and almost glad of it. Do got to say that I broke my record of surviving to day 3, since I survived till day 4! So I am happy on that, and I hope you get a wolf kill soon.

Loslote

01-28-2013, 11:44 AM

Except I haven't 'poked' at him any more than anyone else has. He just suddenly started screaming that I was persecuting him- why me rather than others I don't know. See for yourself: the "Nerwen-Gil" drama is of Gil's making, not mine.

Fair enough. In this case, it is mostly Gil. Option 2 is probably much less likely than Option 4, though I still don't think a wolf!Gil and an innocent![/b]Nerwen[/b] would be acting like this.

EDIT: xed with Gil.

Kath

01-28-2013, 12:30 PM

Hello, all. Straight to business today, as I have to work this afternoon and am unsure how available I'll be to post on the thread.

I know others have looked at Brinn's posts, but I have blatantly ignored their summaries and would like to note the following (so if it's a repeat, sorry).

So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....

Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).

And now I need to read toDay's posts properly. I will return later with thoughts and probably a vote.
I am a weeny bit confused. sally posts this, stating she thinks Gil is unlikely to have been dreamed a wolf as Seer-Brinn would have pushed much harder for the lynch had she dreamed him.

Then she says:
I don't disagree that she could have dreamt Nog, but if she did, I think it was after she said he could be the cobbler. Between the two of them, however, I'd say Nog is the more likely dream candidate, as I honestly believe Brinn would have voted Gil yesterDay if she knew he was a wizard.

But then:
Gil or Morsul. Those are my options. Both are too suspicious right now to be ignored, and it's obvious neither was cleared by Brinn. I'm not sure which to go for though.

I will be voting within the next half hour or so. If you want to try to persuade me one way or the other, now is the time.
But there's no explanatin of how Gil is suspicious in a way other than being a potential dreamed wolf. sally then votes Gil with no further explanation than 'you're suspicious'.

I don't like it.

Rikae

01-28-2013, 12:35 PM

Ok, so Nerwen said:

And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=680366&postcount=371))– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill.

Which is the most absurd strawman I've ever seen. What Brinn actually said was
While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer).

Italics mine. Now, I was wondering how committed Nerwen was to promoting the idea that Brinn dreamed Nog, so I went along with it, and she carefullly reinforces it:
Well, I wouldn't want to rule it out. Though there's also what I said: It could simply be that she knew you were innocent, and therefore was inclined to look askance at anyone pushing the significance of a kill that seemed to point to you. But she didn't seem so inclined to suspect other people for that reason.

Now, I don't know if the wolves would think it was possible to save Gil today by lynching Nog (or at least follow it up with a Nog lynch), but by Brinn's posting a Nog dream seems highly unlikely.

Sally (and I can't help but remember Brinn's point about there being a possible wolf among Sally and Shasta, explaining their survival) is pushing the same idea and more so - she actually says Nog is more likely! Then she actually feels the need to say
I think Nerwen is acting shifty, which means she's innocent. I am rarely wrong about her (or rather, I'm always wrong, which means I'm always right, or something like that). I'll fight any attempt to lynch her toDay.
Does anyone seriously see Nerwen getting lynched toDay? Why does Sally (who maybe feels comfortable with her innocentish status in our eyes) feel the need to preemptively state that she will defend Nerwen? Regardless of Nerwen's role, it reflects badly on Sally.

As for Gil, he knows he's a goner and he's being sloppy. it is hard to say if Brinn did a seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear

The fact that Nerwen notes this but basically prompts Gil to correct himself looks very bad.

Also
I am obviously a poor wolf by the way I play, and I want us to get a wolf kill in.

Okay then. However, he's definitely still trying something with the Nerwen squabble. It comes out of the blue and looks staged to me; Nerwen says:

3. You are a sneaky wolf who is hoping to take me down with him via over-the-top accusations that will be seen as "wolf-on-wolf".

Which I think is the most likely possibility after 4. It is wolf-on-wolf.

There is no question in my mind about

++Gil

But now I very much have my eye on Sally and Nerwen. As for which of the two looks worse, I could toss a coin at this point.

EDIT: Bah, the whole post I put italics in is in italics! Replaced with bolding. Also highlighting vote.

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 12:42 PM

My question to you Rik is that by claiming Ner and myself to be doing a wolf on wolf tactic, after I get lynched are you going to go after her? At least, once you discover the truth.

satansaloser2005

01-28-2013, 12:51 PM

Re: My possibly moot defense of Nerwen. See Boro and how rather sudden that was. Wackier things have happened.

I see little people. I'm off. Do well, fair village, and try not to bicker more while I'm gone.

Inziladun

01-28-2013, 01:37 PM

Inz and Nog are definitely the two we need to look at.

After that you vote Nerwen?

Actually I haven't been particularly "gung-ho" to lynch you- not more than anyone else and less than some. The person who has been strongest and most consistant in pushing for your lynchng toDay is Cop, whom you don't even mention. Why pick on me? It seems so random...

I could say the same. I haven't been particularly bullish on lynching Gil toNight, though I did vote for him yesterNight.

Nogrod

01-28-2013, 01:50 PM

I'm very sorry I haven't been able to take part thus far toDay (I managed to skim through some of the early posts during my early afternoon - about midway to the Day). Too much work; teaching, meetings, things to plan for the rest of the week... And now I have to make an exam for my class for tomorrow before I do anything else.

But I'll be back later and try to make as an informed vote I can produce. I should have more time on the next Day if I get that far.

Kath

01-28-2013, 02:48 PM

I'm going to vote now as I'm about to move between houses and am liable to forget.

++sally

I think the way she was around Gil - half defending him and then voting for him was odd. Also I'd rather the Day didn't end up just being the whole village bandwaggoning onto one vote.

Morsul the Dark

01-28-2013, 02:52 PM

Gil, Nerwen (as well as the others) is totally within her right to suspect you as she's done. I'm truly sorry you're upset, but when you act suspicious, you're going to be suspected, and you've been suspicious for quite some time now. Actually, you've been bloody suspicious. And now you can be bloody and suspicious.

++Gil

I must go to work. I'll try to check in, but no promises.

I think my jaw just smashed the floor. Sally didn't vote me?!

Back and reading... I had my days mixed up so I ended up working today instead of tomorrow... so have to catch up

McCaber

01-28-2013, 02:53 PM

Well, I am at work today and have limited time. Nothing Gil has posted so far today has started to allay my suspicions, so without further ado

++ Gil

Morsul the Dark

01-28-2013, 03:08 PM

Oh. Right. I think Nerwen is acting shifty, which means she's innocent. I am rarely wrong about her (or rather, I'm always wrong, which means I'm always right, or something like that). I'll fight any attempt to lynch her toDay.

x'd with Lottie

This is a very brow raising comment. Are you strongly suggesting you know the role of another player? My "knowledge" was a hypothetical yours seems to be blatant to the point of "fighting any attempt"

Also you've been very consistently and to be frank predictably voting me why the sudden change to Gil? Was your wagoning of me getting nowhere so you jumped on the gil train?

The only thing you've been saying about him is he's suspicious from day one but why? The only solid thing I can find is a mention or his annoying martyrdom.

I don't like Lottie's behavior either but I think for today...

++Sally

Inziladun

01-28-2013, 03:09 PM

I'm at work myself and it's turned out busier than I'd thought.

Gil does seem a rather easy pick, but he really hasn't done anything to make himself look better in my eyes. He's been inconsistent with his statements toNight and falsely claimed I was one of the prime movers against him. If he is indeed evil, it could be a ploy to , as he himself said, "take me down with him".

Kath's vote is interesting, and I can sort of appreciate her reasoning there. What to make of it though isn't clear at the moment.

x/d with Morsul

Loslote

01-28-2013, 03:14 PM

This is a very brow raising comment. Are you strongly suggesting you know the role of another player? My "knowledge" was a hypothetical yours seems to be blatant to the point of "fighting any attempt"

I've done this before, both as an innocent and as a wolf, and I know Sally does it, too, in both roles. I don't find it suspicious.

Also you've been very consistently and to be frank predictably voting me why the sudden change to Gil? Was your wagoning of me getting nowhere so you jumped on the gil train?

Um, really? You're suspecting someone for a) having consistent suspicions and b) voting off of Seer evidence? :rolleyes:

I don't like Lottie's behavior either but I think for today...

Care to elaborate?

Inziladun

01-28-2013, 03:21 PM

Well, I voted for him yesterNight, and I've seen nothing toNight that convinces me I was wrong.

++Gil

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 03:26 PM

Well, I voted for him yesterNight, and I've seen nothing toNight that convinces me I was wrong.

++Gil

Wrong of what? That I am a wizard or that I am suspicious and uncertain?

I just feel glad that though I am an easy lynch, once everyone finds out that I am innocent, those that voted for me will be under the radar tomorrow.

Morsul the Dark

01-28-2013, 03:30 PM

I've done this before, both as an innocent and as a wolf, and I know Sally does it, too, in both roles. I don't find it suspicious.

Um, really? You're suspecting someone for a) having consistent suspicions and b) voting off of Seer evidence? :rolleyes:

Care to elaborate?

I did elaborate, she says Gil prbably wasn't dreamed then uses a possible dream for the basis of the vote.

As for consistency I feel she's been voting me practically every chance whether or not actually suspecting me, then when the wind starts blowing in Gils direction she goes with the winning(or losing) horse. If I'm her biggest worry (two out of three votes) why not vote me? The Gil vote feels ingenuine.

Nogrod

01-28-2013, 03:32 PM

Finally back, and only hastily skimming some parts of the posts I can see Gil getting the votes.

Now that wonders me not because of him being the common denominator between Volo's and Brinn's suspicions (although I must say that if the wolves thought Volo the seer there had to be another wolf he suspected heavily as his suspicion on Gil is not that much on a "secure footing").

And from the little I have gathered, Gil hasn't been especially helpful either in his own posts to cast away those suspicions.

I must join Zil's caution about Gil being the easy vote toDay, but then again I don't quite like the way he just states that and then votes for him quite immediately... I mean, yeah, I'm not sure I can stand above that standard myself (mostly because I haven't had time to read toDay fairly, but anyway). Giving as a reason that he voted for him yesterDay as well...

Give me a hint where to look at as it seems I'm not going to be able to read all in this half an hour we have left. Any other serious candidates and why? Especially "the why" would interest me.

EDIT: X'd with Gil & Morsul

Morsul the Dark

01-28-2013, 03:34 PM

Oh I missed the quote about you. I thought you meant elaborate on Sally

The biggest reason you, Lottie, worry me is the whole picking up on one maybe ill-worded hypathetical and running it straight the heck. What was bad about day two was both Oz and I were innocent which means we haven't been good at even suspecting wizards... I think though you started a good run on me and then Oz sort of dropped the nail on himself unfortunately.

Also Like I said about the Pom vote your vote position was the most likely to be wizardly.

x'ed Nog

Nogrod

01-28-2013, 03:45 PM

I'm trying to find anything from the thread... Does anyone have a tally?

I mean is there a reason to try and check things, or is the voting clear already?

Loslote

01-28-2013, 03:45 PM

Alright, I don't really have time to respond to Morsul, so I'll just have to go ahead and vote...

++Gil

More than just the Seer hints, his posting toDay looks half like a wolf trying to a) incriminate Nerwen or b) make her look good. It's odd that the two options have completely opposite outcomes, but they are both possible. The other half of his posting is simply, "when I'm lynched innocent, please kill the wolves", which is completely useless to the village as a whole, since he's just saying the same thing over and over - exactly the sort of thing a doomed wolf would do. He's not giving away any of his packmates by posting all that, but a doomed wolf doesn't want to go out silent. Posting something relatively useless that might just happen to make him look innocent enough to maybe save him? That screams wolf to me.

Nogrod

01-28-2013, 03:56 PM

Not sure what else to say for my defense aside from avenge me in the likely case I get lynched. With Brinn putting Nog with myself on the suspicion list could show that she dreamed Nog and hasn't dreamed me yet.

Inz and Nog are definitely the two we need to look at.So you were being there in the top of the suspicion-list is for no reason at all, but somehow the seer wished to keep you there with the dreamt of Wizard (aka. me then)? An interesting scenario indeed :)

Although - and in all due fairness - the seer rarely makes a categorization of people where s/he keeps people with different "known statuses" in the same lot just because s/he might be dead the next Day and we'd need to be able to read her/him. Although it is possible Brinn felt secure enough not to be killed the next Night and felt she could keep things not in order for posterity?

Rikae seems to have been cleared quite universally - and she seems to be quite productive toDay (having not read her posts through, sadly as yet). LEt me take a closer look at her toMorrow if none else will. I'd love her as our ally but would hate her surfing through the game just because we didn't lynch her when we had a chance... :eek:

Yes. I have no clear idea about her but that I suspected her a lot yesterDay and Volo's death seems odd if it wasn't her (and yes, it could have been a random-kill as well). But like I said, it would be great if she were a troll after all.

Gil-Galad

01-28-2013, 03:59 PM

More than just the Seer hints, his posting toDay looks half like a wolf trying to a) incriminate Nerwen or b) make her look good. It's odd that the two options have completely opposite outcomes, but they are both possible. The other half of his posting is simply, "when I'm lynched innocent, please kill the wolves", which is completely useless to the village as a whole, since he's just saying the same thing over and over - exactly the sort of thing a doomed wolf would do. He's not giving away any of his packmates by posting all that, but a doomed wolf doesn't want to go out silent. Posting something relatively useless that might just happen to make him look innocent enough to maybe save him? That screams wolf to me.

Even though I posted numerous times that I have accepted my fate of being lynched. That whole paragraph is just weak reasoning to me being a wolf. Anyways, 2 minutes you shall find out.

Nogrod

01-28-2013, 03:59 PM

I have no reason enough to vote differently after such a Day - as I do have my suspicions on Gil anyway.

And it seems there is no real difference I could make anyway - even if I had a strong view (well, I'd advocate it to be sure but well, never mind now...)

++ Gil-Galad

Let's have another Wizard...

Legate of Amon Lanc

01-28-2013, 04:01 PM

DEADLINE.

Gil is lynched. Narration coming soon, and this time I hope sooner than usually, so you don't have to wait long :)

Legate of Amon Lanc

01-28-2013, 04:31 PM

The next night started with Shaz waking up rather suddenly (to the great surprise of everyone) and announcing all that sleep made him hungry and that he was going to hunt, and also to look for missing Bane. Meanwhile, the other trolls were discussing poor Brin and trying to remember who she frowned at the most during the previous nights. After some deliberation, many seemed to recall she did not seem to be particularly fond of Gil. Knowing that she was clever, the conclusion was simple for the simple trolls.

"You're a wizzer, Gil," Cop announced the general consensus.
"I'm a wha'?" asked Gil, confused.
"A wizzer," said Nerve, stepping closer menacingly.
"A wizzer?" Gil's voice sounded even more disbelieving. "Bu' I'm jus' Gil!"
"Well, 'jus' Gil'," Sal interjected, "you're a wizzer."
"I'm a wha'?"
"A wizzer, Gil," said Rick.
"Bu' I'm not!" Gil protested. "I'm jus' Gil!"
"Well, 'jus' Gil', you're a wizzer!!!" Cab screamed and put his fist in Gil's eye. Gil staggered, but did not fall.
"I won't take that from you lot," he shouted and launched himself back at Cab, taking them both down to the floor and sweeping the legs from under Lad in the process.
"Help!" Cab yelled, but the other trolls did not need to be called to take part in such a thing. Soon Lot was in, and Nog, and others followed.

Then there was a gorgeous row. Soon, all the thirteen trolls were rolling on the floor, punching, kicking, biting and headbutting each other, and in the fury of the brawl many got bruises also from others than just from Gil. Needless to say, it took the remaining Wizards a lot of effort to stay out of harm's way and remain hidden at the same time under such circumstances, but fortunately the rest of the trolls were so furious that they likely would not have noticed even if a Wizards' disguise had faltered for a moment.

But Gil was alone, after all, and eventually, after much beating from the others, he remained lying on the floor, completely dead.

"Um, but shouldn't he turn back into a small wizzer?" asked Green as everyone else got back to their feet.
The trolls looked at each other, scratching their heads.
"Unless," said Mors, "he wasn't a wizzer?"

Kat looked longingly at the load of firewood prepared in the corner of the cave already since yesterday.

"That means we won't be havin' a wizzer for supper tonight, either," she said mournfully.

They had all completely forgotten about Shaz, who was still somewhere outside, wandering around the woods, following Bane's tracks, until the moment when the light came over the hills, and he turned to stone where he stood.

~*~

Dumb and Dead
Thinlómien, "Lom", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Legate of Amon Lanc, "Leg", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Pomegranate, "Pom", a Wizard, boiled and eaten on Day 1
Ozban, "Oz", an Ordinary Troll, crushed to death by a troll pyramid on Day 2
Volo, "Vol", Traitor Troll, magically opened up like a door on Night 3
Bane Mantra, "Bane", an Ordinary Troll, turned into stone while hunting (modfired) on Day 3
Boromir88, "Bore", Ordinary Troll, forgotten outside the cave and turned into stone on Day 3
Brinniel, "Brin", the Clever Troll, strangled to death with the assistance of magical studs on Night4
Gil-Galad, "Gil", an Ordinary Troll, beaten to death by his fellows on Day 4
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz", an Ordinary Troll, lost in search for Bane (modfired) on Day 4

Dumb and Walking
A Little Green, "Green"
Coppermirror, "Cop"
Inziladun, "Lad"
Kath, "Kat"
Loslote, "Lot"
McCaber, "Cab"
Morsul the Dark, "Mors"
Nerwen, "Nerve"
Nogrod, "Nog"
Rikae, "Rick"
satansaloser2005, "Sal"

~*~

Night 5 has started. Wizzers, make your plans. Insomniac and Purse-troll, send us your picks. Others, sleep well.

Thinlómien

01-29-2013, 04:00 PM

It was noon and very dark in the troll cave. Not a single ray of sunshine pierced the darkness that protected the diminished tribe of trolls. Seven trolls were in deep sleep, exhausted after the fight in the early hours of the morning. One troll that could never sleep just sat in the dark, wavering between waking life and sleep, between vigilance and drowsiness. There was nothing to see in the dark, and too much to hear. The noise - as you must remember by now - of the trolls' snoring would have scared a way the fiercest pack of wolves. Unfortunately for the poor trolls, what they were facing was a pack of wizards.

A troll rolled over in his sleep and bumped into another. His fellow gave him a good kick, and momentarily the first troll awoke. He opened his eyes in the picth dark, closed them again and fell back into his dreamless slumber. Another troll was dreaming of roast dwarves, while one was having nightmares of the dúnadan ranger that had given her such a wound in her leg that she still limped a little, however well she hid it. All was dark and as peaceful as it ever could be in a troll cave.

Then suddenly there was a whistling noise, barely audible over the trolls' snores. A light appeared, speeding upwards. Then BOOM! All the trolls were suddenly wide awake. Red and green flowers of light were raining on them from the ceiling, accompanied by loud booms and pops. The smell of gunpowder hung in the air. In the faint light of the fireworks, the trolls could for a few seconds see the shapes of other trolls, sitting or standing up, frozen in amazement or terror. Then there was a loud CRACK and a thunderous tumult that could only mean part of the cave had collapsed.

For several minutes, chaos reigned. There were shouts of "Blimey!" and "Lemme out of here!" and "It's day outside ye booby!" and many curses so vile that it would make you shudder if you heard them. After a while, the trolls figured out that whatever had happened wasn't happening anymore and went to sleep. They slept uneasily, however, red and green sparks flying around in their minds, never granting them the usual peace of sleep.

When evening finally came and the first trolls awoke, they found out one corner of the cave had collapsed. After much arguing, they decided to clear the rubble: after all, they did not remember if they hadn't stored any food or valuables in that particular spot. It took them a few hours to remove the stones, and they didn't find anything they would've missed - instead they found the battered and lifeless body of poor Green. Even the stupidest of the trolls was able to reach the conclusion that the wizards had killed again.

~*~

Dumb and Dead
Thinlómien, "Lom", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Legate of Amon Lanc, "Leg", dispatched by the Wizards as a threat on Night 1
Pomegranate, "Pom", a Wizard, boiled and eaten on Day 1
Ozban, "Oz", an Ordinary Troll, crushed to death by a troll pyramid on Day 2
Volo, "Vol", Traitor Troll, magically opened up like a door on Night 3
Bane Mantra, "Bane", an Ordinary Troll, turned into stone while hunting (modfired) on Day 3
Boromir88, "Bore", Ordinary Troll, forgotten outside the cave and turned into stone on Day 3
Brinniel, "Brin", the Clever Troll, strangled to death with the assistance of magical studs on Night4
Gil-Galad, "Gil", an Ordinary Troll, beaten to death by his fellows on Day 4
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz", an Ordinary Troll, lost in search for Bane (modfired) on Day 4
A Little Green, "Green", an Ordinary Troll, blown up with fireworks on Night 5

Dumb and Walking
Coppermirror, "Cop"
Inziladun, "Lad"
Kath, "Kat"
Loslote, "Lot"
McCaber, "Cab"
Morsul the Dark, "Mors"
Nerwen, "Nerve"
Nogrod, "Nog"
Rikae, "Rick"
satansaloser2005, "Sal"

~*~

Day 5 has started. Wizards, stop PMing. Everybody, feel free to discuss whatever you want to on this thread.